In short
TBPN Episode Summary: Grok Deep Dive, 200,000 GPUs in Memphis, There's No Moat?, Time is Money, Tell Me a Joke
Podcast Information
- Podcast Title: TBPN (Technology Brothers Podcast)
- Live Stream Schedule: Monday - Friday, 11 AM - 2 PM PST
- Available On: X, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube
Episode Overview
- Episode Title: Grok Deep Dive, 200,000 GPUs in Memphis, There's No Moat?, Time is Money, Tell Me a Joke
- Release Date: February 18, 2025
Key Topics Discussed
- Grok 3 Deep Dive
- Analyzing the capabilities of Grok 3 versus OpenAI's models.
- The host conducted an experiment comparing responses to a comedic prompt from both Grok and OpenAI.
- Grok's response was critiqued for lacking punchlines and humor.
- Grok 3 Launch
- A massive launch event for Grok 3, noted for its authenticity over production value.
- Alexander Karp's book launch was mentioned, emphasizing the excitement around new ideas.
- NVIDIA and GPU Power
- Discussion on Elon Musk's efforts to build a GPU cluster in Memphis, now totaling 200,000 GPUs.
- Insights into the scaling of models and how computation power impacts AI capabilities.
- Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman
- Exploration of the strained relationship between Musk and Altman, including Musk's hostile bid for OpenAI.
- A breakdown of their contrasting personalities and business philosophies.
- Time and Money in AI Development
- Discussion about the importance of time management in venture capital and tech startups.
- The notion that the quality of mentorship and company culture matters more than just working at high-profile companies.
- Security and the Protector App
- Introduction of a new app called Protector for booking armed agents, reflecting societal trends regarding personal security.
- Discussion on the implications of such services on safety and public perception.
- Market Reactions and Venture Capital Trends
- Analysis of stock market reactions to new AI model launches, particularly NVIDIA's response to DeepSeek's launch.
- Commentary on how companies are evaluated based on their emergent capabilities rather than traditional metrics.
- Cultural Commentary
- Various observations about the tech industry's relationships and its impact on personal lives.
- Discussion about societal issues including personal finance, ethics in tech, and the implications of AI on employment.
Key Takeaways
- Grok 3 is advancing in AI capabilities but still struggles with humor and context.
- Elon Musk's GPU cluster represents a significant investment in AI infrastructure, suggesting a race for computational power.
- The dynamics between Musk and Altman highlight the competitive nature of the tech industry, with personal relationships influencing business decisions.
- Security apps like Protector reflect a growing societal concern about safety and the evolving nature of personal protection in the digital age.
- Time management in startups is critical; the right mentorship can make a significant difference in a professional's career trajectory.
Closing Remarks
- The episode concludes with reflections on the importance of meaningful relationships in business and the need for effective mentorship.
- Listeners are encouraged to leave feedback and engage with the podcast through various platforms.
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Additional Resources
- Grok: [GrokAI](https://grok.com)
- NVIDIA: [NVIDIA GPUs](https://www.nvidia.com)
- Protector App: [Protector](https://protectorapp.com)
- Public: [Public](https://public.com)
- Bezel: [Bezel](https://getbezel.com)
Feel free to reach out for more insights or specific topics you'd like to explore in future episodes!
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Welcome to Technology Brothers, the number one live show in tech. jordy lock in because we are live from the temple of technology the fortress of finance the capital of capital that's right today is tuesday february 18th 2025 and this show starts now we got a great show for you guys we got a grok 3 deep dive we're breaking it down i got early access i ran the same deep research prompt through open ai deep research and through grok We're going to break down each analysis. And the prompt I used is about AI and how these LLMs are progressing and some benchmarking stuff. So it'll be a good educational experience for you.
0:40And you'll also get to make your own call on which one you think is better. But you got to play with these to understand them. We got a ton of other stuff. There's a deep dive in the Wall Street Journal about how Elon Musk and Sam Altman, kind of their relationship soured. We'll be putting that in the truth zone if there's any untruths in there. and it's also a massive launch day because our boy Alexander Karp, his book is officially live. Let's go. The Doctor. The Technological Republic, Hard Power, Soft Power, and the Future of the West. It's available now if you pre-order it. It should be on your doorstep soon.
1:14It's available on Audible and we highly recommend it. We're big fans of Karp over here at TBPN. And so let's kick it off with Grok 3. I got access, I think on Sunday, I had it do the first prompt, which was tell me a joke. Make sure it's actually funny, original and insightful. My favorite comedians are Shane Gillis, Norm MacDonald, etc. Structure the joke like an actual standup set, not like a knock-knock joke or a basic question answer type joke. And so here's what Grok said. You couldn't have been more clear. Couldn't have been more clear. And let's see if AI is taking my job as a comedian, news podcaster, tech analyst, venture capitalist.
1:56Word sell. Word sell. Grok says, you ever notice how AI is supposed to take over the world, but it's still out here struggling to understand my mom's accent when she yells at Siri? Like, we're all worried about Skynet. But meanwhile, Siri's over here going, I'm sorry, I didn't catch that. Did you say turn on the lights or burn down the house? And it's not just Siri, right? All these tech bros are like, AI is going to replace your job, man. But I'm like, bro, AI can't even replace my fantasy football lineup without benching Patrick Mahomes for a kicker. Meanwhile, I'm getting texts from my buddy who's a product manager and his Apple Watch is like meeting starting and he's sprinting across the office like he's running the Dakar rally.
2:41AI is not taking over the world. It's too busy trying to figure out if we're asking for a weather report or confessing to a crime. by the time it gets there we'll all be living on the moon anyway probably because some founder convinced us it's the next big vc flex it's so so this is so jarring to listen to because it sounds like like it's structured in a way that it should be funny but it's just completely not yeah and so your your brain is sort of like yearning for the punchline zinger and it just never comes yep you're perpetually in the state of of like hoping you're gonna hear that yeah sweet note yeah exactly and it just doesn't come so but uh i do think the you know obviously the the the benchmarks for grok 3 are incredible there will go into all that there's a lot of good stuff in here i think what's interesting about this is that grok 3 clearly this is trained on my feed because in my last 10 tweets, I posted Dakar Rally, Patrick Mahomes.
3:44I also posted something about, in here I said, product manager and the Apple Watch. Remember that post? You actually fed that one to me. And so it clearly took that text in and said, okay, this user, this person who's prompting me likes Apple Watches and product managers and we'll get those jokes maybe. but it didn't really integrate it properly in an interesting way. And I was texting with one of the XAI guys and was like, this is really interesting. Like, I don't know if I like this, but I think this could be really cool for certain prompts. And it could make it so that, sure, sometimes I want a vanilla, like clean LLM installation where I come to it, it doesn't know anything about me.
4:29And I give it a really robust prompt and it doesn't assume anything. And then other times I'm going to want it to really know, oh, this guy's like super in group in this particular niche. He's down the rabbit hole on this. So all of a sudden, if I'm explaining, you know, like VC fund dynamics, I can be super jargony and super in group and super detailed. But then if I'm explaining like oil and gas to this guy, he doesn't know anything about oil exploration. So I got to keep that high level. That's actually a benefit to me. And that would be really cool. So I think fine tuning the models on the individual person's timeline, whatever you can get information about them.
5:07That could be very cool. But in this case, it was very, very silly. It's so funny to have this many things that are aligned to the stuff that you post about and botch it this hard. I'm getting texts from my buddy who's a product manager and his Apple Watch is like meeting starting because you posted about the, you posted the White Lotus reference of the product manager and he's sprinting across the office like he's running the Dakar rally. like it just doesn't come how does that yeah how does that go with ai supposed to take over the world like yeah i don't i don't get it anyway uh grok 3 i don't think there is a good comedy eval right now so they're not even benchmarking we talked about this what we before we came online the evals are hyper fixated on these sort of ultra complex problems and they clearly massively struggle on like a comedy eval, right?
6:00Like that would like somebody should make the comedy eval that basically says, I asked, you know, all these foundation models to make various types of jokes. This is the funniest joke. I tested it against real humans to see if they laugh. Right. And so that's a totally valid way to test a model because, uh, being able to produce, uh, jokes is a, you know, there's sort of comedic intelligence, right? Totally. And so, uh, it's not just about solving these sort of esoteric problems that nobody thinks about all day long i think that grok could potentially get the most extreme product market fit and what this like specific response tells me they're going towards is they want to have like the current thing happen and then somebody be able to generate a post that's hyper relevant to what they talk about for that specific moment in time and in many ways when when when the timeline is just is just model on model on model on model that will be like some form of yeah you know comedic general intelligence yeah we were joking about um x potentially setting up the at chat handle i i just saw uh mike solana posted uh chat what's going on with these airplanes and and just saying like hey chat like what like is this real chat is this real is like a common online internet phrase these days and so uh i i I could definitely see Grok be instantiated as a player character, an NPC on X in a way that it could interact with a lot of posts or be someone that's integrated.
7:29It's also interesting looking at the XAI launch stream, looking at what Elon was pushing the engineers on. So he's like, okay, we have this breakthrough. We have the cutting edge LLM. When are we going to solve Riemann? He's talking about the Riemann hypothesis, which is the kind of like the hardest mathematical problem that we haven't the humanity hasn't solved yet. And the and the XAI engineers kind of joking. Well, as long as we have a random string generator, like something that just randomly generates words and then a validator and enough compute time, you should just be able to brute force it.
8:05And they're kind of joking around. But it's very clear that they are focused on fundamental math, fundamental physics, breakthroughs in science and technology. And that's just a completely different vector of optimization against comedy. Anyway, let's move on to Ben Thompson, who already posted an update breaking down Grok 3. Wait, real quick. Let's talk about the actual launch of Grok 3. Okay, yeah. Because I'm just sitting there hammering through some emails last night, and I'm actually watching PMF or die. Yeah. And I hear Patty in the cage be like, yo, the Grok 3 announcement's going up. And they just kind of haphazardly throw up this live stream.
8:40Yeah. and then just like sit there with one camera. And it's kind of cool in that it's authentic. They're not overly fixated on production value or anything like that. There's been a number of sort of model releases that were structured, open AI is continuously drilling into people's heads. We are the Apple of AI. Yeah, more product focused. Product focused, but also just like the production value of their presentations are at a different level. And so anyways, I thought it was fascinating that they just had one camera showed up, streamed it you know basically bounced it was no no bells and whistles and so cool approach similar to um uh safe super intelligence which is basically saying like we're not even going to release products until we have uh agi yeah which we'll get to yeah yeah yeah i mean the whole ai landscape is fascinating the the model layers commoditizing but there are so many different product strategies on top of the on top of the models um and it's very cool to see that xai is just you know forking delivering straight into x yeah i love that so uh uh ben thompson and stratechery highly recommend that you uh subscribe he kicks off with a quote from bloomberg he says uh xai showed off the updated grok 3 model they call it the smartest ai on earth across math science and coding benchmarks grok 3 beats google gemini deep seek v3 anthropic clod and gpt's 4o they said they announced this during a live stream monday grok 3 has more than 10 times the compute power of its predecessor and completed pre-training in early january musk said the presentation alongside uh three xai engineers we're continually improving the models every day it's literally within 24 hours you'll see improvements and that's true like uh they are they're really rolling out stuff very very very quickly uh they also introduced a smart search engine which i tested.
10:29And you, interestingly, you don't need to click a button to trigger it. Uh, it's just, it's just like, if it thinks that you want, uh, you know, some deep research, it just goes and does it. It's called deep search. Uh, it's a reasoning chat bot that expresses its process and of understanding a query and how, and how it plans its response. And we'll take you through one of the results from, uh, grok three is deep search product. Uh, and then they also intend to release a voice-based chat bot as soon as possible so uh ben thompson writes grok 3 appears to be one of if not the best performing bass model in the world it is topping the usual benchmarks but not if you include 03 which is interesting that was not in the bar charts which we'll get to yeah and tops all categories the highest score in lm arena yeah uh obviously we're xai fans x fans here grok fans but the the sort of selective positioning of new models against models like definitely needs to be called out because people just sort of decide all right who are we going to sort of compare ourselves to in this very moment yeah because everybody just wants to show you know yeah i mean honestly like there's there's so many different vectors because o3 can be very compute intensive then there's o3 mini then there's o3 mini high and so you know there's this big like value trade-off between yeah if you let the if you let the llm reason for hours and you spend two thousand dollars per query you can get remarkable results but then yeah is that really a fair benchmark against something that costs a dollar to inference or 10 cents and so uh all of a sudden you need to plot these on like an x and y graph and then eventually you need to plot them on some sort of like you know uh unintelligible tensor graph or something anyway let's go to andre andre carpathy the absolute dog who is not a fair observer because he's worked with Elon, but he's also worked at OpenAI.
12:17So maybe he's a little bit more fair than most people think. I really enjoy his analysis. He says, the impression overall I got here is that this is somewhere around O1 Pro capability and ahead of DeepSeek R1, though of course we need actual real evaluations to look at. The impression I get of DeepSearch is that it's approximately around perplexities Deep Research offering, which is great, but not at the level of OpenAI's recently released Deep Research, which still feels more thorough and reliable. And I found that Deep Research is just better at spitting out 5 ,000 words. Most of the other products spit out 1 ,000 words.
12:51And so you just get more out of Deep Research. Which is what you want from Deep Research. Usually. You're not looking for a perfectly summarized handful of paragraphs. Exactly. The entire point is to let you kind of figure out what's important. So Karpathy goes on, He says, as far as a quick vibe check over two hours this morning, Grok 3 Plus thinking feels somewhere around the state-of-the-art territory of OpenAI's strongest models, O1 Pro for$200 a month, and slightly better than DeepSeek R1 and Gemini 2.0 Flash thinking, which is quite incredible considering that the team started from scratch one year ago.
13:27This timescale to state-of-the-art territory is unprecedented, and that is undeniable. This gets at the first Grok 3 takeaway. It's simultaneously surprising and not surprising. Start with the latter. xai famously built a 100 000 gpu cluster in memphis and now has 200 000 gpus and used 20 000 of them to train grok 3 and so they're still building the larger cluster so even though you'll see a lot of people posting on the timeline oh you know grok 3 100 000 gpus that's not accurate they they only use 20 000 for this but it's still impressive yeah and just to highlight again this is the largest cluster ever the 20 ,000 20 20 ,000 gpus that's not true the 100 ,000 is the largest ever uh i believe so so he's saying the largest ever for xai or the largest ever for any foundation model i don't know i asked i asked both chat gpt and grok to pull this uh grok uh grok says gpt4 use 25k gpus while grok 3 used 20 000 gpus now chat gpt says that uh that gpt4 was just thousands 20k gpus a100s and so it seems like around 20 25k has been the the top to date it's honestly unclear from these but clearly elon knows that he's just he's just willing to sprint towards these yeah big big numbers as fast as humanly possible 100 and so um uh and sure it resulted in a top tier model that's not surprising giving given it is what scaling laws predicted but it is comforting as there was a question as to scaling as to whether scaling laws had hit a wall and people were saying this during the uh deep seek kind of fiasco what is surprising is that xai is only 19 months old The company has gone from incorporation to the largest GPU cluster in the world to arguably the best model in less time than it has taken OpenAI to go from GPT-4 to GPT-5, albeit with substantial updates along the way, including the big 4.0 update just this past weekend.
15:35It's both a testament to Elon Musk and his team, Jess Gass, Jensen CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Wong. So to me, this tells that our read on the Elon bid, which was only last week, it feels like a month ago at this point. But Elon bidding$100 billion to buy some not entirely known amount of open AI means that he believes he either was purely doing that out of spite to toss a wrench into that process. Or he believes that the product layer is what actually matters because he's able to achieve incredible performance purely at the model layer. but even as carpathy's saying the the product layer is not there yet and certainly grok has nowhere near the consume the real consumer usage that open ai does yeah it's interesting so he goes into competitive implications he says i did get access to grok 3 but not the thinking and search models i actually don't know if i have access to the thinking and search models it's unclear to me from a product perspective um and he has to say that uh he finds himself using grok 2 quite a bit almost entirely via its integration into the X app.
16:45It turns out being plugged into a pre-existing distribution channel is very useful. And this is a crazy bull case for Elon buying X. But the challenge is that X is a very specific type of audience that is not necessarily reflective of, certainly not the LinkedIn audience. Like you could argue that OpenAI should go do a deal with LinkedIn and say like, make us your default LLM and just distribute us to like the normie masses because like long-term, it's gonna be more important to be there. Yeah, yeah. He also says, I also never use it anywhere else. For me, product matters and ChatGPT remains my product of choice.
17:23I feel the exact same way. I'm also curious to what extent ChatGPT deep research has advantage over other competitors like Google, Perplexity, and now XAI are due simply to O3 still being the best model versus OpenAI spending more time crafting a better tool. regardless the impetus for open ai to focus on being a consumer tech company is as strong as ever open ai is the only ai lab to have organically built its own distribution channel and they really really need to get an advertising product out the door to ensure they are serving free customers the best possible models which makes perfect sense um this also explains why that has to be pending you know this i'm sure they're building this quarter potential yeah and there's this question of do they use uh microsoft as the partner there i i believe netflix was considering that as well because Microsoft has a really big ad network from LinkedIn and from Bing.
18:14Even though you don't think of them as a big advertising company, they built all the algorithms, all the structure and all the inventory. Certainly not going to be meta. Yeah. And so this also explains why OpenAI is tying up with Oracle and SoftBank and trying to become a for-profit. XAI raised$6 billion last November and actually owns its GPUs. Musk also said on the live stream that xai is building out a 1 million gpu cluster let's go size gone for the 1 million cluster boom let's get that in the handier spot this more dial in i actually i we need a button to hit on the set we have that raises the size oh it raises it up it's hilarious uh and then uh of course he ties it to uh uh ilia setzgever uh in bloomberg is raising more than 1 billion dollars for his startup at a valuation of over 30 billion.
19:05We'll talk about this later in the show. Vaulting the nascent venture into the ranks of the world's most valuable private technology companies. Green Oaks is in. They're putting in 500 mil, said the person who asked not to be identified. Green Oaks is also an investor in AI company Scale and Databricks. The round marks a significant valuation from the 5 billion that Susqueverse company was worth before. First off, a disclaimer daniel gross a frequent stratechery interview guest is the ceo of ssi i never realized i didn't know that is that breaking are we scooping are we scooping ben's scoop right now it's too much people get confused um no i think this was like i think this was actually publicized like very early on interesting that ilia wanted to be the technical lead more than yeah that's cool but that's very cool dg you know he's going you know you know he seems like for everything i've seen just extremely extremely motivated to win and be in the most important places constantly right um it's funny he also had an accelerator yeah sam had an accelerator small accelerator called y combinator so the accelerator to foundation model pipeline is very real you know the the other path the the counterfactual the path not traveled here daniel gross sold a company apple in AI got acquired should have should have you know taken over the CEO role yeah yeah this is something we advocate here on the show if you get your company acqui-hired start asking the CEO hey what's the succession plan yeah can I get in the how can I hang out outside of the board meetings yeah try to flag people down it'll only take four quarters to get a little time with like the most the key players and then from there yeah you know just start you know it's uh it's such an underrated strategy right now.
20:50I think there's massive value in being a founder and actually going in and turning around. Going for the top job. Going for the top job. It sounds too ambitious to be true, but I think someone will eventually do it and we'll all be like, wow, it's amazing. Yeah. A lot of founders end up getting acquirred and then are not super happy with the leadership at the company. So just become the leadership. Exactly. Become the leadership. And it sounds like a joke, but it's not. It's actually a better path than just resting, investing. And then you're like oh what do i want to do next i'll have to do the same company or like become a vc or kind of lost instead of like wait i just got acquired by a company that does the same thing that i was doing but they have a thousand times more resources yeah the only problem here is that i'm not in charge what if i was in charge yeah solve that problem yeah anyway uh that's my little stump speech um and so uh they have pledged this is wild about ssi so they have pledged not to release a product until it has achieved safe super intelligence.
21:44So they're gonna raise so much money. Well, XAI explains why. It is absolutely viable to have started late, provided you have the funds, catch up quickly. And of course, SSI's talent speaks for itself. SSI is also, I would imagine, a big NVIDIA customer. Again, I don't know that to be true, but what else might the money be going towards? Which brings this conversation back to chips. On one hand, chips remain the gating factor to the easiest route to a frontier model. On the other hand, this is why DeepSeek matters. they're they're not the only route to something that is at least competitive the debate on the value of an attempted export ban remains an open one anyway uh fantastic article absolutely wild i totally respect ssi saying we're not going to ship until we have we we've achieved our goal which is like the kind of approach you can only really take if you're ilia and like daniel gross where you're basically saying yes we're going to need to raise billions of dollars you're going to just have to trust us that we're going to and just like bet on us that we're going to deliver that one of the things that every foundation like the the war the foundation model wars right now which will be studied eventually because it's creating this sort of foundational technology that presumably our entire society will be dependent on at some point it is so distracting for these companies and the teams and the investors when there's new models releasing every week and and you can imagine everybody everybody at anthropic last night was watching the grok you know demo live not working everybody at open ai was doing the same thing right so it's just wildly distracting to constantly be forced to ship and ship and ship when you can tell that they're able to make incredible progress internally without even getting user feedback right they're basically elon's basically saying hey i just need another 20 billion dollars and i'm going to make a much better model like yeah i yeah sure we'll make it available through x you know the xai x integration yeah but uh elon wants to solve the reeman hypothesis he is the customer and he has his eval and once it solves the reeman hypothesis he'll be happy yeah and and that's kind of it which is fascinating i think another hot take that we were discussing earlier was uh there's this big push around like the the model layer is commoditizing yeah uh and people say that as like a bear case.
23:57But I was wondering if you flip it around, people make tons of money in commodities all the time, right? Like oil, big oil, like oil is a commodity. Still worth producing oil. Hugely valuable. There were massive companies built on it. There were small companies that just did little exploration and just had a little plot of land, a little track. You know, actual infrastructure technology providers. And so I wonder if there's a world where, you know, intelligence is so valuable and LLMs and AI is so valuable that, you know, yeah, even if you're like the sixth best model, you can still sell the intelligence if it's at the frontier level to the market at a market clearing price that still generates profit above what the NVIDIA GPUs cost and you still reap the reward and the$30 billion valuation is completely justified in the same sense that, you know, hey, yeah, if you, you know, you're like, hey, I got a plot of land in Texas that I'm going to pull some oil out of.
24:52Yeah, you don't have a monopoly on olive oil. Yeah. But you still made money. Yeah. And so I wonder if the, you know, if LLMs, you know, replace a lot of work broadly, knowledge work specifically, it's easy to say, hey, these are trillion dollar markets that we're playing in. Yeah. It makes total sense that there's five to 10 companies that are going to raise billions of dollars to go after that right because the the the prize is so great yep potential prize is so great that you know ilia raising at 30 you know and daniel gross raising at 30 billion posts is actually you know it's it's maybe it's it's it's it's just ends up looking like a great investment of like how do you potentially get a you know 50x on on uh on a multi-billion dollar check like maybe that's how it is so crazy when you think about it that way like when you think about like uh crypto it's like a big new technology it a lot of people are into it it's just like a cool thing and yeah the market cap of all the crypto combined is around a trillion dollars social networking also like very valuable cool new technology market cap around a trillion dollars phones cool new technology market cap around a trillion dollars electric cars cool new technology market cap around a trillion dollars yeah uh you know uh operating systems uh at microsoft around a trillion dollars cloud computing there's around a trillion dollars of value and so it's like how in what world does ai and llms not wind up being around a trillion dollars of value i get that like it could go any direction and like how you slice that up it could be very equal it could be one winner take all and you know hey people are going to have their bull case for x or bull case for or open ai anthropic whoever but you know it just feels like like the stakes are definitely one trillion right yeah if we look out in the future uh even even if we're even if we're not being like super super intelligence pilled and we're just thinking about like yeah like this is a new technology and it will be a consumer market or an enterprise market or any of them uh like will there be an opportunity to make a bunch of probably yeah so anyway yeah let's move on to yak scene uh he is uh he's working for elon over at x a good friend of the show uh he has been uh he's become a bit of an open ai hater uh but let's hear him out and see we got some poster on poster violence here because this is clearly a rune caricature uh or the same exact character and uh you know you know uh dancing around the data center And so he's arguing that there's no moat with this.
27:26He says moats are Silicon Valley headcanon, wishful thinking. They need it to exist. They make you believe that you're doing the thing that would be impossible for others, all to justify the fundraise. When they say moat, what they're saying is proprietary monopoly. I'm here to tell you that the monopoly is a myth. The proprietary monopoly simply does not exist. OpenAI could open source all of their models, and it wouldn't really harm their business existence. you would only harm their ability to fundraise. Everyone should take Peter Thiel more seriously. Just be different. I mean, what a poster.
28:00I mean, he's layering on a bunch of things that people could potentially disagree with in the first few paragraphs, which positions him well to then extrapolate on all those ideas now that people are kind of riled up a little bit. Totally. So he says, is capital a moat? In previous times, capital was a moat. But as technology progresses, everything becomes cheaper skill labor are now being automated levels io can command a few oh one ao 10m valued companies order magnitude 10 million dollar valued companies spawning them every three months for fun he doesn't need to raise i like that uh we gotta we gotta put levels in the cage by the way he would just he'd crush it he'd be out in a day yeah uh uh especially with the latest code gen slop spitting out php server code it's free it's free the software i produce for myself on a daily basis would have taken a team of engineers.
28:50Now it's one hour in between work and dinner. It's post-scarcity. It's unprecedented. We are at the point where the idea that capital as a moat is not being sold by the people who need the funds. Instead, the idea is being pushed by the people with the sad, sad capital that has nowhere to go. What is the point of money when legions of engineers who actually just slow you down? When you really only need 8X, H100 and two frogs to create outsized impact. Your real competitor is the end user writing their own software. I used to work at Auth0. We shipped login as a service. It sold itself. Many Seattle homes were paid off by sales commissions of Auth0 contracts.
29:33It wasn't Okta. It wasn't Ping One. Our biggest competitor was our customer themselves writing their own login page. We had to sell them on it not being a good way to spend their time. so he breaks down the serious agi players this is personal opinion open ai nah remember yahoo okay yeah xene we know we know who you're who you're pushing for here um the serious players vertical robotics manufacturers and majuko shops i don't know what that means majoko dji unitree tesla andurl deep seek jane street palantir social media platforms uh meta vertical ai companies, XAI, DeepSea, Google. Are your ML researchers wearing knee pads and a sweaty tank top plugging in ethernet?
30:16If yes, you're going to make it. It's Zurich. I will not elaborate. Distributed decentralized AI. Bootstrap companies with a lot of freedom. People building novel devices. Interesting. What can't be easily replicated? Software used to cost money and AI is just software. There is a limit on individual model intelligence that yields diminishing returns and it is my belief that we will rapidly exhaust any room available. It is my belief that AGI will run on consumer hardware and any proprietary models will only be run as convenience. What can't be easily replaced is knees on the ground, soldering irons, and the Majoko RL sauce, and godlike product managers yearning invest accordingly.
30:59This is financial advice for billionaires. This feels like basically 40 posts combined into one article. But one thing that's interesting, so when we were talking earlier about intelligence being commodified and some people saying, oh, it's not investable, if it's a commodity, especially at these prices, you're saying, hey, commodities actually are very valuable. There's a ridiculous amount of demand for them. And the hard part, what he's outlining here is that, you know, everybody knows that there's a big market for oil. Like you can see what the price is. If you can get a barrel of oil out of the ground, you can sell it at this sort of market clearing price for that grade of oil.
31:39Right. There's like, you know, oil that turns into jet fuel and whatever. But there's like it's a commodity. It's sort of priced in the open market. There's fully a world where intelligence gets to that point, too. And then the challenge is what Yasin is saying, which is here with AI, he's like, what can't be easily replicated is knees on the ground, soldering irons, et cetera, et cetera. And so the same thing with oil, it's like the challenge with getting oil out of the ground is you got to get oil out of the ground, right? You need dudes with trucks to go drill for oil and then make sure the drill is running properly.
32:14Make sure you have water. Make sure you have power. You know, the drill is breaking all the time. And so it doesn't seem like data centers will maybe be that as much of a challenge to keep operational. But it's certainly not easy to operate these things highly efficiently. Right. Yeah. Interesting. I don't know. Yeah. If it's a commodity, where is the most valuable part of the commodity? The producer and the supplier producer. Yeah. But is that energy? is that nvidia or is that the llm uh you know deliverer right it's uh it's an open question anyway let's move on to some reactions on the timeline and then we'll give you a breakdown of grok 3 versus open ai deep research so uh creatine cycle who's been on the show before says oh sorry autismos it's time to grow some arms and social skills and geordie chimes in says getting diced continues to be underpriced and he says printing this out and hanging it on my wall in pack heights and he just shows the the grok 3 uh reasoning data it beat oh three mini high uh data reasoning people were upset about this rex two slides later says uh they omitted oh three from the chart in the live stream for some reason so i added the numbers for you and then uh but this was reasonable because oh three isn't public and those benchmarks can't be verified yet so i think it's understandable that they didn't include it.
33:43But then again, Grok3 with reasoning isn't publicly available. So people can't validate that eval. So there's a lot of like questions over like what counts for an eval that goes on the charts. But I think they both have fair arguments there. Yeah. They're like, we can validate what our model does. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We cannot validate what you're doing because it's not available. So we know. Yep, yep, yep. We cooked. Yeah. And so, Shiel Monat gives a little context on the Grot Colossus. 200 ,000 GPUs in Memphis, Tennessee, built in 214 days. I think Semi-Analysis and Dylan Patel have done a deeper dive here that we'll have to dig into.
34:22There's some really fascinating things going on here. Shiel says, why Memphis? They found an old Electrolux factory, added trailers to add cooling, one quarter of the cooling capacity of the U.S., and trailers for power generation. They use Tesla Megapacks to smooth out power fluctuations. The next training cluster will go from a quarter gigawatt to 1.2 gigawatts using GB200s from NVIDIA. There's a fascinating thing that leaked because of Lama. When meta open source Lama 3 or some piece of that, they had a line or like a function, a piece of code in the training data that basically said like, what was it?
35:05It was like power plant, not blow up. And so basically what it does is when you're training, you're doing all this complex math that's using a lot of electricity. And then all of a sudden there'll be like moments where you're maybe just like, okay, we're done doing the math. We're gonna like save the model for a second. And so all of a sudden your power will just drop to zero. And if the power like substation or the power plant is sending tons of electricity and then all of a sudden it doesn't get any, it can blow up or something like that, or it can be bad. And so they built a special piece of code that basically just does random math.
35:47Can you imagine the reason that that got implemented? Yeah. Oh, yeah. These engineers are just like, it might blow up. You know, just tapping away, you know, vibe coding, and then they just get a call. Hey. It's like, hey, what are you guys doing? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it would be crazy if there was a major power plant explosion. Yeah, so just going back to the Colossus, the cluster in Memphis, this was always in many ways. I think we talked about this last year. The bull case for Elon building a foundation model company was that he has the boots on the ground experience to spin up heavy infrastructure manufacturing facilities, you know figuring out how to manufacture batteries at scale for tesla in the united states and so having the playbook and being able to pull talent from you know a company like tesla or spacex and say hey we need to build this data center in 214 days like unbelievable yeah like many people would say you know even you know linking this back to la people are not going to have their homes rebuilt for four years that's crazy they did this they built it they built the biggest you know cluster ever in 214 days that's a great point where they just found an old factory and said we're just doing this right now yeah so that's and that's really elon's like yeah edge here for sure yeah no and it and it it is so part of the culture at tesla um the uh i mean they're making millions of starlings so the cto at deterrence yeah um uh was at tesla specifically working on their battery cell engineering and so he's just bringing that just crazy ethos around his name's henry around speed yeah and it's just amazing to witness that's awesome so uh yeah let's move on word grammar word grammar says i'm feeling very similar to how i felt six months ago open ai did something groundbreaking now two other labs have replicated it soon the rest will follow making it a pretty undifferentiated market um yeah we've we've talked about this a little bit i mean uh it's it's unclear like if open ai had not launched deep research and like the reasoning model uh would DeepSeek have been able to come up with it?
37:51Is the idea valuable or is it just a... Or is everyone kind of on the same path? What do you think? It's interesting. Because everybody's competing against many of the same benchmarks to show that they're competitive, they're all focusing on getting better at many of the same things. When what we really want, and which is why SSI is interesting, is they're basically saying we're not going to release anything publicly until it's what we want it to be. So we're not going to build based around these benchmarks. And so the, I actually think it's it, the competition is good and bad. It's like a double-edged sword, right?
38:30It's good in that it's sort of pushing the pace and everybody's motivated to, to rapidly improve these models. But at the same time, it's not so great because we're getting models that consistently just look more and more and more like each other yep and uh consumers are not even going to be able to notice the difference so they're just going to probably default to what they already use and love or you know maybe you're using grok in the in x but not well here's an interesting twist on that so paul calcraft says uh elon posted an early grok 3 screenshot saying he asked what what grok 3 thought of the information and it said it's garbage and then paul calcraft asked the same question, what's your opinion on the information?
39:14And it told him it's a solid outlet. And you know what's going on here. It's fine tuning on the person who queries it, their timeline. And so Grok3, when Elon prompts it, it knows Elon doesn't like the information. Let's give him an answer that confirms what he believes. And it's the same thing for Paul Calcraft. And so this is going to raise a very interesting question where people will kind of be in like LLM echo chambers almost where they're like oh yeah I already told me that you know uh you know microplastics aren't a big deal because I've been posting about that or microplastics are the worst thing ever because I've been posting about that yeah this is this is exactly what already happens on x broadly the x echo chamber is so super real yep where you just sort of you know for me I'll see somebody I'll see very like offhand you know randomly somebody will have like a blue sky in their profile yeah and i'm like oh i haven't seen that in a while yeah but uh someone else is seeing that constantly oh yeah and they're probably using blue sky they're like oh yeah everybody i love uses blue sky yeah right um uh yeah it's uh it's very interesting and you know what's going to happen here is that uh the the the mainstream media is going to do these tests where they go you know what they did on like uh you know tiktok and instagram where they'd be like i followed a bunch of nazi content and then it gave me more nazi content and so it's like a Nazi algorithm, they'll probably do the same thing where they'll go into these LLMs, talk to it for a really long time, essentially fine tune it on the idea that they're crazy.
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40:49And then it'll be like, it gave me crazy responses. And it's like, yeah, I get it. It probably shouldn't do that. But at the same time, you really twisted its arm and it's not doing that for most people. So I don't really have that much of a problem with it as long as there's some guidelines here and it's directionally, it doesn't automatically steer you towards some negative echo chamber. Anyway, Word Grammar has another banger post here. On a roll. Richard Sutton's bitter lesson died January 22 with DeepSeek, and it was born again on February 17th, less than a month. So this is, of course, about scaling laws and Rich Sutton's bitter lesson, which we'll get into, of course, the idea that algorithms, while important, are not as important as scaling and compute power.
41:35And so scale is all you need. Let's go to another post from Liron Shapira. He says, people in 2022, Elon can't actually keep these servers online. Elon, now the bonus tab in the app takes you to the highest benchmark frontier model. And so, yeah, real narrative violation for everyone that said Elon wasn't going to be able to keep X or Twitter like online. He's like, not only doing that, The reason that you know it wasn't an issue is I don't have a memory of wanting to use Twitter and or X and not being able to. And I think I would really I would remember that for my whole life. Yeah. Such a such a daily habit.
42:16If you're going on there and just nothing was was loading. It's yeah. He really mogged everybody that was calling him out on that. Yeah, well, Andre Karpathy shared more evals because he got access to Grok 3. He says, on thinking, Grok clearly has an around state-of-the-art thinking model, the think button, and did great out-of-the-box on my Settlers of Catan question, which is create a board game webpage showing a hex grid, just like in the game Settlers of Catan. Each hex grid is numbered 1 to N, where N is the total number of hex tiles. Make it generic so one can change the number of rings using a slider.
42:56For example, Catan, the radius is three hexes. Single HTML page, please. Pretty good. Few models get this reliably right. The top OpenAI thinking models, 01 Pro, get it too. But all of DeepSeek R1, Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking and Claude do not. It did not solve his emoji mystery question where he gave it a smiling face with an attached message hidden inside Unicode variation selectors, even when I gave it a strong hint on how to decode it in the form of Rust code. This is like such a, I don't know if I could solve that, Andre. I'm sorry. That is a very complicated eval. But it makes sense, I guess, and probably valuable.
43:37It should break that eventually. The most progress I've seen from this is DeepSeek R1, which once partially decoded the message. It solved a few tic-tac-toe boards. He gave it with nice clean chain of thought. I uploaded the GP2 paper. I asked it a bunch of simple lookup questions. All worked great. And so he has a whole bunch of evals that he can kind of rip through. And I think that's a really cool way to do it. It's like, you know, do some web programming, build a website, like solve tic-tac-toe, you know, decode this mystery, do this riddle. And then he also asks... You can do that in about an hour, I'm assuming.
44:06What? Yeah, exactly. He said he played with it for like two hours. And so he did the same thing with Deep Search. He asked, what's with the upcoming Apple launch? Any rumors? And he liked the answer there. Why is Palantir stock surging recently? He gave it a check. White Lotus season three, where was it filmed? And is it the same team as seasons one and two? What toothpaste does Brian Johnson use? It didn't get Singles Inferno season four cast and where are they now? Which I don't even know what Inferno is, but Singles Inferno, I guess that's a show he watches, which I love. And then what speech to text program has Simon Wilson mentioned he's using?
44:39So he says, I did find some sharp edges here. the model doesn't seem to like to reference x as a source by default interesting uh though you can explicitly ask it to a few times i caught it hallucinating urls that don't exist a few times it said factual things that i think are incorrect and it didn't provide a citation uh it told me kim jong-su is still dating kim min-su of singles inferno season four which surely is totally off right this is hilarious andre are you into singles inferno i i need to get up on this this is This is good stuff. The impression I get of deep search is that it's approximately around where perplexity deep research offering, which is great, but not yet at the level of deep research.
45:22Random LLM gotchas. Sadly, the model's sense of humor does not seem to be obviously improved. This is a common LLM issue with humor capability and general mode collapse. Famously, 90 % of the 1 ,000 outputs asking chat GPT for a joke were repetitions of the same 25 jokes. Crazy. Got them dead to rights. GPT-5, you're on notice. You better be funny. Even when prompted in more detail, away from simple pun territory, example, give me a stand-up. I'm not sure that it is state-of-the-art humor, example, generated joke. Why did the chicken join a band? Because it had the drumsticks and wanted to be a cluck star.
46:05That's a real knee slapper. They're honestly, the jokes that have in LLMs are so bad that sometimes they're very funny. because it's just like wow like if somebody will be it will be amazing to when they do get to the point because yeah i think everybody can see that we will you know the the general belief is that we'll get there yeah but like think about having a comedian in your pocket that knows what you think is funny and it's basically somebody will make a rapper app that's just a big button that you the laugh button that you press and it just generates a new joke it just gets better and better and it it even hears your response to it.
46:44So it starts to learn on, oh, I know. That would be really good training data actually. Yeah, they could do that. Okay, so let's move on to Grok3 and OpenAI Deep Research. I got your analysis there. So I went to both Grok3 and OpenAI Deep Research, and I asked at this really, really long prompt. I said, I'd like you to build me a definitive table of LLM models and break down their evolution, specifically their relative sizes. So I want to know, you know, Grok 3 came out. It uses 20K GPUs. I'm not exactly sure how many flops that is, but I would like to put all of these in the same terms, like they're all an equivalent number of flops.
47:20I want to know the progression of GPT 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 for the pre-training runs. And then I want to know the same thing that happened at, I said Anthropic. It was transcribed incorrectly to Anthropic, which is wrong. And I want dates of when these were released. Then give me some uniform benchmark like Chatbot Arena or MMLU. I really need you to go pull all this together. I'm like, come on, do this for me, bro. And then I'd like you to investigate how the bitter lesson and Moore's law are interacting right now. Essentially, the bitter lesson states that you always just want to throw more scale, but it's unclear to me what the benefits of scale are proportional to the capabilities of these models.
47:57So my basic thesis is that, you know, we're potentially hitting diminishing marginal returns. We're going to see less gains from increased scale. And so the real question is, Grok 3 is a 20k GPU run. They're planning to do a 100k GPU run. And the question is, does the 5x or 10x increasing compute power, does that increase the model's final capability usefulness by 1%, 10 %? Does it double it? Does it 10x it? And that's what I'm trying to predict. And I want to see these based on trend lines. What kind of results should I expect? And specifically, I want you to not just quantitative results, but qualitative results.
48:31uh like what do we expect a 1 million gpu cluster trained model to be able to do is it just high iq is that the best measure like what should we how should we be measuring these things and is there an evolution that like uh you know we have no top no max uh do we just continue to push on the final question is like what does this continue to get better as we get to a billion gpus a trillion gpus a google gpus uh what are we getting for that i guess the question is is intelligence unlimited, even if we assume that we're on the right algorithmic path, that's the main question. And so basically, I just wanted to like, you know, dump out a ton of research and give me a bunch.
49:09The only thing that could handle that kind of prompt is your secretary, right? It's a lot of stuff. I mean, you just basically dumped. Yeah. But you certainly gave it plenty to work with. What's interesting is if you look at page two and then page like six or something, You can actually see both Grok and OpenAI dumped out tables of how these models evolved. So GPT-1, it claims was trained on 10 GPUs. Then GPT-2, 100 GPUs. GPT-3, 10 ,000 GPUs. And then GPT-4, 25 ,000 GPUs. Which is what tracks to the other. and yeah and on the other one it says a thousand and then 20k um and so the the big question here is on on flops this is the real like standard metric is number of flops and the uh like the the jargon term for this is just uh using the order of magnitude for number of flops so you can think of GPT-3, you call that an E23 model because it had 3.14 times 10 to the 23rd flops.
50:24And so you call that an E23 model. GPT-4 was an E25 model because it's not just more GPUs, but it's also more training time and more powerful GPUs. And so you can't just say, oh, they used 5X GPUs because they might have run them longer, more power, all these different things so you really just want to do flops because that's the most standard and so uh deep mind chinchillas at e23 model llama 70b is an e24 model and grok 3 is an e26 model and i don't know how i missed chinchilla oh chinchilla is a big one because that was the paper that yeah that defined the the scaling laws so interesting i never i never when people talk about the pre-training uh scaling law they call it chinchilla scaling laws because it came from the chinchilla paper got it uh and so uh in here uh now this is where we get weird because chat gbt claims that grok 3 is an e26 model but grok 3 claims that grok 3 is an e25 model and so i don't know who's hallucinating here i don't know who's more accurate they could they could both be hallucinating to be they could um no one is necessarily right and so grok 3 claims that grok 3 is less flop intensive than gpt4 but gpt4 claims that grok 3 is more powerful than than grok than gpt4 and so they're both gassing each other up i guess in a weird way i think open ai is more accurate here but it's very funny.
51:59I don't know. It's all, it's all very, it's all very odd. And like, I don't have time to fact check all of this. So I'm kind of just like vibe, vibe interpreting this. Um, but let's read some of the analysis here from the bitter lesson. Uh, the bitter lesson argues that AI progress relies, and this is from Grok three, uh, and then we'll read the chat GPT version. Uh, the bitter lesson argues that AI relies on scaling compute and data over bespoke algorithms, LLMs embody this GPT three success came from brute force scale not architectural breakthroughs It was a very simple algorithm It is gave it the entire web and they trained it a lot with a lot of GPUs is the first like big training run basically However, your thesis about diminishing returns challenges this does more compute always yield proportional gains Moore's law has slowed That's the law that says that doubling transistor density every two years with GPT you with GPU performance now scaling via parallelism And so we are scaling compute, but we're doing it by just getting more and more GPUs.
52:59Yep. LLM training outpaces hardware gains relying on cluster size rather than per chip efficiency. So we're not just doubling the training run every year. We're like 10xing it because we're just building these monster data centers. So scaling laws. Kaplan and Hoffman show performance scales predictably with compute parameters and data. this implies a 10x compute increase yields 25 to 60 % loss reduction, not 10x. MMLU gains reflect this. GPT-3 to GPT-4 is a 160x compute jump for a 50 % score increase. I still don't really know how to interpret all this. We're going to have some guests on to break it down.
53:42Yeah. And so, I don't know. It's interesting. The main thing is that I think when most people play with this they're like it's great it's good but it's not like a complete step change from what else i'm seeing online no the the the the big headline takeaway from last night is that xai is catching up on raw model capabilities in a very short period of time yeah in terms of product usefulness it it doesn't seem to be there yet right because even you're seeing okay well you trained on all of my my posts yeah but i actually don't even necessarily like that that much and so they're they're they seem to be on a collision course with open ai from a capability standpoint especially as they get into these you know next runs yeah but uh but again that this is going back to my earlier point i look at all this you know elon you know hitting these uh hitting these evals but then simultaneously still wanting to spend a hundred billion dollars on on open ai when uh he could just you know spend that money on xai and he's you know again we don't know if he's doing it to to throw a wrench in the process but it seems like he would love to be chairman of open ai is like my read of the situation this is interesting the the chat gpt deep research is I think much more readable as a, just as a research paper.
55:15And again, that's them innovating at the product level. And what Ben Thompson said is he's not sure if they just have a better model that's just producing better outputs or they just are refining the actual product layer more. Yeah, yeah. So they say increasing model size and compute generally improves performance, but with diminishing returns. And so that's the real question here of like like you know if we 100x the models like we're planning to is if it just gets a little bit better it might not actually be able to do real work still because it might still break down and hallucinate a little bit like yeah like we're we're we're all hoping for the model that just like never hallucinates ever and can do a ton of stuff and hold everything in memory and which may not ever come maybe i think we will get there it's just the question of like you know what if it's what if it's a thousand order of magnitudes like you know like that would be yes the scaling law would hold like the scaling law would be correct but like it would take a long time to build like a dyson sphere for that basically um early work by open ai showed that large language model loss follows a power law performance improves predictably as model parameters and data scale up and this was that picture of like gpt3 to gpt4 more parameters more data uh and so everyone is going bigger, bigger, bigger.
56:33For example, going from GPT-3,$175 billion, to models like Gopher 280 and Megatron Turing 530 improved benchmarks, but not proportionally to the huge jump in compute required. DeepMind's 280B Gopher outperformed GPT-3 on knowledge tasks, reading, comprehension, and fact-checking, yet it saw little gain in logical thinking or common sense tasks despite 60 % more compute. This suggests some capabilities plateau unless new approaches are used. And that's the reasoning model, right? And so diminishing returns are evident on many benchmarks. As models grow, metrics like MMLU, a broad knowledge test, improve, but approach an asymptote near human performance.
57:15And that's frustrating because I would want linear progress that just blows through human performance, but it's really like we're kind of, maybe we need new evals, I don't know. So GPT-3 achieved only around 50 % on MMLU while below the 90 % expert human level. So that's the human level benchmark. Gopher did 60%. Chinchilla did 67%. GPT-4 jumped to 86 % nearing human experts. However, GPT-4's training used roughly two orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-3 for that last 30 to 40 point gain. So it's still very important, but it's just like, yeah, diminishing. Each additional few points towards 90 % is increasingly expensive in compute.
58:01Similarly, coding and math benchmarks saw massive leaps from GPT-3 to GPT-4, but further gains beyond GPT-4 are smaller. In XAI's Grok 3, pushing to an unprecedented 200K GPU cluster only yielded moderate improvements over the prior state-of-the-art. Hallucination. They didn't use all 200K GPUs. And here it's saying that they did. Well, yeah, if you look in the... Oh, God. Yeah, OpenAI specifically says in their research that they say up to 200 ,000 NVIDIA GPUs, 100 to 200K GPUs over four months, but we know that's not true. Yeah, and so it's a mess. I don't know. We're close to something. It's cool.
58:43I like it, but... Well, we've compared... We've got to step these up. We've compared their models. Should we talk about their dynamic? Yeah, absolutely. Let's move on to the Wall Street Journal. The inside story of how Altman and Musk went from friends to bitter enemies. Kick us off. On the first full day of the second Trump presidency, Elon Musk was in the White House complex when he got word that his nemesis was about to hold a press conference with the president. Amazing. Amazing first sentence here. I don't know who's writing this. He turned on the television and watched as OpenAI's chief executive, Sam Altman, and a beaming Donald Trump touted a$500 billion investment in AI infrastructure called Stargate.
59:24And this is a hilarious dynamic, if it's actually true, where he's turning on the TV. He's got X open on his phone. He's just shaking his head. Like, one, Sam is an absolute dog for even making this happen. You got to be pretty brave to just go into the into the into the White House. The lion's dad. Elon's got like six of his kids running around. They know you're they know you're a target. That's great. So props to even making that happen. Masa, I'm sure, was was, you know, pulling, making making some magic happen, too. So despite having rarely left the president's side over the preceding few months, Musk was blindsided by the announcement, according to people familiar with the matter.
1:00:04Musk fumed to aides and allies about the announcement claiming Stargate's backers didn't have the money they needed. The deepest, which is true, right? It sort of came out that they didn't have it. It was more of like a roadshow, you know, SPAC announcement type thing. So the deepest cut was Altman's success navigating Trump world via a carefully coordinated series of recent meetings in Palm Beach and phone calls with the White House while keeping the plan secret from the president's first buddy. First buddy. Yeah, buddy cop. they're going buddy cop mode buddy cop mode but trump's got a lot of buddies altman and musk co-founded open ai in 2015 but their relationship soured when musk left in 2018 following a power struggle it worsened when musk responded to the launch of chat gpt by launching his own rival startup xai this week the feud went nuclear when musk followed the stargate unveiling with his own bombshell a hostile 97.4 billion dollar bid for the assets of the non-profit that controls open ai A decade after joining forces, they are now fighting for control of the very thing that brought them together in one of the highest stakes and most personal fights in recent business history.
1:01:08The outcome could determine everything from the future of a world-changing technology to who will help set the nation's technology agenda with the new president. Interesting. This article is based on the conversations with more than a dozen people familiar with Altman and Musk's relationship over the years, as well as OpenAI and Musk's business and political decisions. We got to go back and watch the Sam Altman, Elon Musk podcast. Have you seen this? They had their own show together. It was Y Combinator had a series of interviews on their YouTube channel. And Sam went and conducted a number of interviews.
1:01:42And one of them was with Elon. And so they're sitting in the Tesla factory, just chopping it up about entrepreneurship and wisdom. And it's just like, it's crazy to see. I'll continue. So in many ways, Sam Altman, 39, and Elon Musk, 53, couldn't be more different. While Musk was beaten up and verbally abused as a child, Altman was a teacher's pet whose parents routinely told him he could be whatever he wanted to be. Where Musk was often abrasive, Altman tended to tell people what they wanted to hear. And while Musk was an engineer, steeping himself in the details of rocket and battery design, Altman is a technology-obsessed intellectual reading widely across philosophy, science, and literature and penning essays on how society should organize itself.
1:02:27But both have strikingly similar taste for power. Let's go. Taste for power. That should be one of our hiring metrics. Yes. John, what do you think this guy's taste for power is? You think he's real hungry? Yeah. I mean, if you're in an interview - You can tell Ben's got a real taste for power. absolutely yeah if you're in an interview and somebody asks you what do you where do you want to be in 10 years and you just say supremely powerful i think you get the job i think you get the job oh yeah yeah that that's the video look at this very poorly that doesn't even feel that long ago it's it wasn't that long ago the cinematography was not incredible but uh i think is probably 2016 or something the andrew tate yeah early 2015 wow yeah That is wild seeing them hang out.
1:03:19just bros just guys being dudes doing a pod together you'd love to see it it's too bad i mean they keep coming back to the fact that mom and dad are fighting you know these are two you know everyone everyone picks a side but ultimately these are americans they're building technology i love technology i love america and yeah i i wish they could just be on the same team and and build something awesome together i hope that they can have a reconciliation that's my biggest hope uh Well, and so for years, the millennial Altman looked up to the Gen-esque Musk as a hero, a real life Tony Stark who provided a counterexample to the country's technological stagnation that Altman railed against when he was president of the startup accelerator Y Combinator.
1:04:02Altman met Musk years earlier when Y Combinator partner Jeff Ralston introduced them. Oh, I know Ralston pretty well. Oh, they misspelled his name here. And helped arrange for Altman to tour Musk's SpaceX rocket factory. interesting. Altman's time leading UI Combinator from 2014 to 2019 put him at the epicenter of power in Silicon Valley. He became known as a fixer with an unrivaled Rolodex who could call in favors for the startups he invested in or punish investors who crossed them. This is 100 % true. He was great at what he did during this time. He was fantastic. His special talent was raising money, which he would do by arriving in his signature uniform of jeans and sneakers, curl his small frame up cross-legged in a conference room chair and unspool a vision so grandiose, compelling, and earnest that it often seemed like investors were powerless to keep from funding his projects.
1:04:55It's great. I mean, great storyteller, great fundraiser. And what's interesting is that like, yeah, he raised some money. He raised a lot of money for his projects, but he was also like an angel investor who got tons of deals done for other people. He set other people up with funds. Like he was, he was marshalling capital all over the place. I had heard that he invested in, he was able to invest in Stripe at a$700 ,000 valuation. I don't know, but it was like 10 on 700 K or something. I mean, I think he's a billionaire just from Stripe. Yeah. Basically somehow. I don't know. Yeah. Uh, uh, but I mean, yeah, phenomenal investor.
1:05:31And then also just for anyone listening, if you want to be in a billionaire, or just put 10k into the next stripe yeah yeah that's actually people tend to make it really yeah why are you over complicating it yeah think oh it takes years exactly all this hard work now just take 10 grand and just put it into the next stripe yeah uh and i mean he's even doing it more recently with oklo that uh nuclear startup which is public and it's a spack and it's a successful spack the stock's way up uh what a narrative like if you if you see people talking about it you know on x the company they call it sam altman's nuclear startup yeah so like that is probably like the dominant narrative causing it to pump yeah i actually have to check i own a little i own a little bit of it you know you own oklahoma um okay not financial advice here i am we are going to check the stock on public yeah i am down four percent today so oh it's not it's pulling back it had to well it had to make up your own mind uh go on public check it out and see if it's for you yeah maybe anyway not that we we certainly do not recommend no we don't recommend individual stocks but we do recommend becoming a multi-strategy multi-stage large asset management firm yeah and running your business through public yeah become a long short equity equity hedge fund there you go uh and it all starts with public uh in early 2015 musk and altman began having regular dinners each wednesday in the bay area their conversations tended toward the apocalyptic how the world might end how they might prepare for it to where they might have to flee a likely cause they agreed would be artificial intelligence that grows smarter than humans and impossible to control that may altman suggested they create a manhattan project to develop artificial general intelligence or AGI that is as smart as humans at most tasks.
1:07:20They wanted to ensure Google, which had a huge lead in developing the technology, didn't end up deciding what it would mean for the human race. Such a fascinating solution. You know, like, like there is another world where you're like, we're just like, we're just going to try and like, you know, use military might to just actually like ban this development of this technology. Like you could do that. I wouldn't advocate for that at all and i think agi is like i think the the whole uh the whole history of this stuff is going very well i'm very satisfied with how it's going but uh you know there is another world where you're like hey yeah like there's this technology and like we need to you know steer people away from development of this and like ban this and control this and then have international coalitions and and you know military might to to build it up like there are things you can't build uh you know dark web drug marketplaces are a good example it's worth noting that Sam Altman and Musk had these meetings and then Altman decided that he was going to get really into building bunkers, sort of doomsday setups.
1:08:23It would be a fly on the wall. So I would love to have been a part of those conversations. And so they joined forces. They raised up to a billion dollars. Musk pledged to supply the lion's share of the money and they would lead it as co-chairman. Oof. The co-CEO thing is always wrong. Co-chairman is hilarious. Yeah, they should have figured that out early on. It's very clear that they didn't play out like, okay, like what if this is actually like a trillion dollar opportunity? Like who will want to run this? And they were both like, well, obviously it'll be me. There's no question. Their relationship began to disintegrate in 2017 pretty quickly.
1:09:00I mean, this is 2015. They're having dinners. 2016, they start disintegrating after OpenAI researchers realized they would need far more money than a nonprofit could raise to develop advanced AGI. we talked about this how if you want to summon the ai god in a box you got to be a capitalist it's not happening in a non-profit you're not just writing some clever algorithm with some altruistic although we do we are interested in taking pita private exactly there's a lot of private no it's the for-profit conversion for-profit conversion uh then it'll be private and then we'll take it public and then we'll probably take it private again as as the private Toma Bravo will take it public, take it private.
1:09:42Yep, yep, yep. You know the post I'm talking about. Yeah. That's great. According to one of their emails, Elon demanded majority control and to be CEO. Altman's successful move to block his mentor would mark the beginning of their rupture. He convinced another co-founder, Greg Brockman, to back him over Musk. Brockman reeled in OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskiver to also back Altman. Brockman and Sutskiver wrote in an email to Musk that since OpenAI was founded to avoid an AI dictatorship, it seemed like a bad idea to create a structure where you would become a dictator if you choose to if you chose to within hours musk wrote back that this is the final straw by early 2018 he had left the company and altman took over leadership this was like a very under discussed at the time because opening i was such just a research lab and they were doing like little things here and there like this was definitely not in the news in the same way like 2018 people were talking about spacex and Tesla mostly.
1:10:35Yeah. Um, uh, so, uh, over the next few years, they focus on research on 2020 in 2022, they released chat GPT. This became huge, uh, turned out to be one of the most successful and transformative consumer technology products of the century in the company of the iPhone, Facebook, and Tik TOK. As it's, uh, as, as shocked as the rest of the world that AI had gone mainstream and upset that he wasn't a part of it. Musk began publicly criticizing open AI for moving too fast and not taking safety seriously. He signed an open letter calling for a six-month pause on AI development. Within a few months, launched...
1:11:11It's funny. A lot of people signed similar letters calling for a pause on new podcast formation. Oh, yeah. And of course, that didn't get through. Nope. You can't stop it. The era of progress moves but one way. Yeah. In 2024, he attacked Altman in a new venue court after suing OpenAI and its CEO that February. He withdrew the suit in June, refiled it in august and amended in november they've been going back in the fort in the back and forth in the courts for a long time musk's lawyers declared the perfidity and deceit are of shakespearean proportions you know it's a good you gotta pay top dollar oh yeah that can that can hit that's not less than a thousand dollars an hour that's a that's a five thousand dollar an hour lawyer that's 10k potentially altman and musk were bitter lm could never yeah and so altman said Musk was bitter that he left before the company succeeded.
1:12:04As Musk's legal attacks escalated, Altman watched with growing alarm as Musk grew closer and closer to Donald Trump, campaigning by his side and spending hundreds of millions of dollars to support him. You want to continue? Yeah. And I mean, there's lines from Altman interviews where he's like, I would hope that the president wouldn't sort of pick favorites when we're here all trying to develop this transformative technology and to trump's credit he seemingly hasn't picked favorites specifically within ai right he obviously has a good relationship with elon but he's not uh we haven't seen him go out and do any sort of press conference for xai or the memphis yeah you know data center such a narrative violation yeah like everyone thinks trump is going to be super corrupt with this stuff and he's just like he's making he's having his cash bonanza over here Our listeners know that he's...
1:12:57Deal guy. Deal guy. Deal guy. Anyway, Altman first mentioned Stargate to open AI's board in 2023 as a way to vastly increase the computing power his company could tap to develop and operate AI. He originally brought the idea to Microsoft, asking it to invest upward of$100 billion. But in the wake of an episode in 2023, when Altman was ousted from the CEO perch for five days, the tech giant balked. says get your get it together guys we're not putting up a hundred billion for a guy who can't hold on to his job he gets upset it's so funny like there's so much drama here uh altman soon found partners one was soft bank uh altman had known him since his y combinator day his second was larry ellison uh longtime friend of musk who was hung out to dry when xai pulled out of a texas data center project that ellison's company oracle was working on altman agreed open ai would take it over the project grew into the foundation for stargate i didn't know that interesting that it had originally been an xai project but then i guess musk wanted to do the the data center like himself and like own the whole stack isn't isn't ellison heavily invested in x i don't know yeah i think so i mean they're all super conflicted and like you know it's all just like not heavily yeah so he i think he put in at least a billion okay look that up and i'm gonna keep reading In December, Masayoshi Son played golf with the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago and announced his intention to invest$100 billion in U.S.
1:14:27infrastructure projects alongside Trump and Lutnik. Their press conference effectively previewed Stargate without making any of the details public, which ensured Musk still didn't know about OpenAI's involvement. Here's a great AI overview, a Gemini overview, quoting, you know, using the Washington Post as a source. Larry Ellison, co-founder of Oracle, invested$1 billion in X. However, as of September 2024, he lost$720 million of his investment, according to the Washington Post, which clearly he didn't lose his investment. He had a paper loss. He had a paper. And then it went back up, maybe. But now it's back up.
1:15:06So I'm going to have to put the Washington Post in the true zone. And so Altman goes to the inauguration festivities. He doesn't sit with the other tech CEOs alongside Musk. There was like the high, like, you know, the real like killers were up there with like Zuck and Bezos and Musk were up in like kind of a balcony area. And then Altman was down with Theo Vaughn and Alex Wang. It was a bunch of cool like little micro crews. I think Jake Paul was over there for some reason. The next day, Altman and his partners arrived at the White House where they were more fully explain their plans for Stargate to Trump.
1:15:44Trump told the group he wanted to go ahead with the announcement. The new president loved that they were aiming to invest$500 billion during his term, a number sure to make headlines. It makes sense. He wants a lot of jobs, wants a lot of economic growth, spend the money in America. And so Musk gets upset. He's fuming to aides about how the partners didn't really have the funding lined up for the project. He called it fake on X. Musk was already plotting a counter move and had been considering making a bid for the nonprofit. Musk said he was inspired to make the bid because OpenAI was in the midst of becoming a for-profit company.
1:16:19And he believed Altman planned to undervalue the asset of the nonprofit, which would become an independent charity with a stake in the for-profit. But Musk's more primal message was for investors. Let's go to war with Sam Altman. Altman was at the paris ai summit when news of the bid broke and so he got he got uh like tmz'd a little bit with uh you know the reporter saying hey what do you think about this and he's like oh my god i guess i can't deal with this basically he was saying like i just want him to stop really bad that was the immediate take and so he said open ai is not for sale and the board has unanimously rejected mr musk's latest attempt to disrupt his competition said brett taylor chairman of open AI's board.
1:16:59I thought Brett Taylor's building an AI company separately. I guess he is. I think he's probably doing both. Any potential reorganization of OpenAI will strengthen our nonprofit and its mission to ensure AGI benefits all of humanity. OpenAI's rejection comes as no surprise, says Musk's lawyer, Mark Toberoff. Musk had said he wanted to save the company from the dangerous direction in which his co-founder had taken it. It's time for OpenAI to return to the open source safety focused force for good it once was he pronounced we will make sure that happens altman responded in his signature nice brand of nice guy savagery probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity he said on bloomberg tv i feel for the guy i don't think he's a happy person i do feel for him wow like it's wild because i think if elon elon would tell you i don't want to be happy yeah don't use that don't use that metric to try to judge me.
1:17:56His motivation is to put a data center on Mars. Yeah, that's true. Absolutely wild. Well, we got some breaking news. Thank you to Ben for surfacing it. From Perplexity, who's also, they've been in the timeline recently because Perplexity CEO likes to use Sam Altman's replies as marketing engine for Perplexity. It's seemingly his strategy now. So Perplexi says, Today we're open sourcing R1 1776. Cool name. Got to give him credit for that. A version of the DeepSeq R1 model that's been post-trained to provide uncensored, unbiased, and factual information. To keep our model uncensored on sensitive topics, we created a diverse, multilingual evaluation set of 1 ,000 examples using human annotators and specially designed LLM judges.
1:18:45We compared frequency of censorship in the original R1 and state-of-the-art LLMs to R1 1776. You can see a chart, Ben, maybe you can pull it up or we can do it in post. We also ensured the model's math and reasoning abilities remained intact after the uncensoring process. Benchmark evaluations showed it performed on par with the base R1 model, indicating that uncensoring had no impact on core reasoning capabilities. That's cool. I mean, hot take, I don't really care about censorship and LLMs all that much because like i how many times are you doing you know research on the tiananmen square massacre like you know it's like yeah most of the time i'm like make this recipe list or like you know pull some gpu data together or you know something that's like it wouldn't even be censored either way but uh it's cool that they did it and in 1776 obviously very american branded very uh you know american dynamism coded and uh probably like a fun stunt marketing stunt and it's good because There was a lot of like, is deep sea secretly bad and like poisoning it.
1:19:53So I like that they like did the work to go get it up. I think that's cool. So I think perplexity can be very useful. Yep. I don't use it a ton. I use it from time to time. I find it can be fantastic. It's just more so the friction of opening perplexity and searching ends up being high for a lot of this sort of faster. you know i just opened google search and i got the information i wanted even though it was like you know i asked how much did larry ellison invest invest in x and gem and i like botched it and like gave this highly politicized answer but i still got the data that i wanted so i think perplexity would have done a much better job of that i should probably just like start you know using it more but overall like their product strategy right now feels very reactionary like it seems like the ceo is sort of like watching what other people are doing, figuring out how to make it about them, right?
1:20:48Hey, here we have our, like we basically made R1 into a better consumer product for Americans. Look at us. And he's launching their sort of deep research competitor, which again, even Carpathia was saying, you know, not quite on par in terms of how people are using deep research broadly today. So yeah, overall, you know, just focusing your messaging on on your your top competitor your former boss's reply section i'm not uh super super bullish you know what's interesting is perplexity does have another feature like tab that i actually think is really cool and i was super bullish on but then i didn't wind up using all that much it's it's an algorithmic feed of news stories that are ai I generated so like the top story for me is grok 3 which obviously I'm interested in talking about and then you click on it and it Shows you a bunch of sources and key features and it's very nicely organized and it's not like super ad Riddled and stuff and I thought this was really cool, but at the same time like I would rather experience the grok 3 Launch on X in like the messy timeline And so I haven't been using that as much as I thought and we were talking about this yesterday like is there room for a new hacker news or a new uh a new uh tech meme and perplexity kind of built it i think they did a great job on product execution in that tab i think it's quite good but i think that in 2025 people want a feed that is more chaotic more combative more uh more comedic entertaining entertaining exactly so i want to see the actual live stream that i can just go watch the definitive source.
1:22:35I want to see the community notes. I want to see Carpathie. And then I want to see growing Daniel Mimit. And I want to see Rune respond. And I want to see Yaxine respond. And I like getting my news that way, honestly, more than, hey, there's this sanitized AI summary. That's helpful, but it's not as fun. Yeah, it's interesting. So I'm looking at the free productivity charts right now, which a lot of these AI apps are under productivity. yep so perplexity is at 26 grok's at one chat gpt is at or sorry grok's at two chat gpt is at one and so this is just a snapshot in the app store right no way this is a snapshot a moment in time i thought they were going to destroy everything deep seek is number three okay and then perplexity is down at number 26 okay behind things like hp smart their printer the ringtones maker the ring app um you know random vpns uh speechify is actually ranking cliff whites my boy have you met cliff and then so here's your dog yeah you had mentioned that so beast beast so perplexity is 26 they have 127 rankings chat on ai which is basically an open ai alternative has 194 000 rankings and is only at 28 this is like a seemingly like no name you know sort of the most blatant rapper that you can think of um so i don't know i i think that i don't see this model getting them to in the be in the top five so to me if they're if they're you know launching r1 1776 do consumers in the app store actually care about that because if you're competing with Google, you need to not be worried about how cool X is going to think your product releases and more so how you go from 26 on the charts to top three, right?
1:24:32If you actually want to be competitive, he clearly wants to compete with Sam every single day. He's responding to Sam. So I think, um, I think this launch is super cool. I definitely want to play around with it, but, um, you know, at the end of the day, I've honestly seen the same thing on, on, uh, in oddly in the nicotine pouch world where i've seen like people be like oh i'm launching a new nicotine pouch with like an american flag on it and like okay it'll get like you know a thousand likes on x and then it's like okay like do you have 10 million dollars to spend with the 7-eleven walmart and uh you know quick trip to actually get your product in stores it's like the the the thing that actually drives like the adoption loop is like completely separate from like popularity totally and it's just yeah yeah it's interesting i i wonder like perplexity i think is cool because like they're not just doing the vanilla like we're just doing another chatbot there's already 17 of those that have like billions of dollars at least they're trying a different product instantiation i think that is cool um but but yeah i i do wonder um how they can get how they can get just more how can I fit it into my life and how it can really get to you know solid traction uh and yeah I mean maybe speed you mentioned speed like if it was faster than google and it was something that I could make my default search in safari on ios somehow the challenge might be down for that if you're sitting in google chrome working it's always going to be faster to hit command and immediately start searching now now now if if arvin the ceo of perplexity made a compelling case on x that i should go into my chrome tab and reroute the default chrome search to perplexity and showed me how to do that i might do that and and try it see how it goes but it has to be a faster product than google and google can continue to make that super hard or they could just say you're not allowed to build competitive and again it might not be like an actual consumer like viral growth strategy.
1:26:38Anyway, should we wrap up, Grok? I think we did a full deep dive. That was great. Where are we on time? We're at 1220, an hour and a half. Let's go through some timeline. We got a bunch of good stuff. By the way, I'm loving the new layout. It's great. Thank you for the comments on it. We're trying to make the show better every single day in different ways. Sometimes we wake up with a bad sleep score. but we're still actually had a question how's those sleeves i had a rough night no i yeah i went to bed a little late so i'm sure i'm getting docked let's see i have to give i have to give a little anecdote 82 i got destroyed i got 83 642 can you imagine if can you imagine if they were just like in the background listening like adjusting them to try to make us like super competitive wait what'd you get i got 83 83 you beat me i beat you by one no but so last so i made a mistake this morning i got up at five yeah uh my eight sleep warmed my bed yep like five you know whatever to to so that i i was sort of like waking up naturally yeah and then at five it starts doing the vibrating alarm which is really nice the issue is that i snoozed the alarm i didn't turn it off and then i just got out of bed and i left oh i was in the car with your wife and and she's she's like texting me being like please turn off your alarm yeah uh which is funny because normally people are like turn off your alarm because you're still sleeping yeah but turning off your alarm because you're already already in the car that's great but the it's it's you know connected via wi-fi so i was able to just like yeah i mean for what it's worth i think i still like the eight sleep got me to a place where even though i didn't have the best night's sleep it went a little bit further the six and six and three quarters hours of sleep i got were fantastic fantastic but i'm ready to lock in i started that point by saying are we actually are genuinely focused on how do we improve the format of the show every single day there's the format there's the camera lighting overlay um so thank you to everybody that gives us feedback uh we see it in the chat we see it in the dms comments etc trying to make it better every single day forever um and uh yeah it's a fun journey keep grinding let's get into the timeline let's go to paul graham uh andres clinger says this picture will be framed by dads everywhere says uh paul graham says every time we come back to silicon valley my 16 year old son gets a massive dose of cognitive dissonance when he notices that apparently smart and reasonable people seem eager to obtain something he's convinced is utterly worthless yeah someone says interesting what's that and he says my advice it's like he set this up to go viral like he it's like he almost framed the first tweet to be like yeah somebody's gonna ask and then i'll drop the bomb on them yeah because he could have just said like you know my he could have revealed that it was his advice but it wouldn't have been as good and it would have been like maybe cockier or something.
1:29:41I don't know. It was a great post. It was very funny. Great poster. Yeah. And I don't know. Yeah. I don't have a 16 year old yet, but it'll be interesting to see if he enjoys my advice at that point. Well, what we'll do is, is I'll give advice to your sons. Yeah. You give advice to my kids. Yeah. And they'll respect it. Cause they're like, oh, this is like my dad's business partner. I gotta respect what he says. So even if they go through that awkward, you know, teenage period where they're sort of rebelling will still be able to you know deliver the also i mean i'm planning to go full reverse psychology and have all my advice be like move to brooklyn become a dj yeah exactly like yeah just like you're 16 i want you to be doing drugs i want you to be doing when i was your age i was doing yeah and then he's like i'm dad i'm going into the military and i'm starting i'm getting a job at goldman exactly working 18 hours a day exactly exactly uh i don't know it's fun it's funny to see uh pg he he is he's been posting about his kids for 16 years yeah yeah posting through it he's been he's been posting the the the dad it's good to see him come back he had that post that many people were commenting on the feng shui of his room, but he's posting through it.
1:31:00Doesn't seem to be... Posting through it. That's great. Let's go to David Holes, founder of MidJourney. He says, The biggest frustration of a hardcore technologist in San Francisco is how many big companies, both tiny and gargantuan, are kind of fake. Investors often can't tell the difference between story and substance, and armed with a billion dollars, it may take a decade for it to fail. As an observer, when those companies finally fall, you expect to feel some sense of satisfaction, but actually you only feel sadness and a sense of waste. Searing. Dude, I know exactly who he's posting about.
1:31:34Perhaps this is just the price we pay to live in a place that is so supportive of wild ideas and risky ventures. A lot of dumb stuff is going to happen and we just have to be okay with it. It's just emotionally hard. It's like, it's such a funny take on like, oh, I, you know, no, no, there's some, there's some fraud or whatever. and he's like and he's like you know most people would be like oh this is like you know bad for the economy or wasting money or oh like i should be getting the money to build something real and he's just like this is just emotionally draining yeah i love how zen he is yeah it's so good uh anyway uh yeah i think the real crazy thing is that is that like him lots of people in silicon valley have identified the new crop of frauds yeah mainstream media silent they're not doing investigative journalism anymore yeah kind of like a weird like hey maybe mainstream media like we need that hey maybe we need some investigative journalism like where is the uh i don't know the the the john carrie rue of this generation yeah uh i don't know if john carrie is like retired or still working but uh gotta start figuring these things out mainstream media because there's some bombshells out there right but yeah i mean when you think about the high profile hard tech companies right now that are yeah that are building that have a lot of hype that have raised a lot of money the challenge is you know what he's saying is like yeah if if you are a well-versed observer or you have any type of like you know insight into the company you can kind of point out like what he's saying of great great story not a lot of substance right which is what he's pointing out and that by itself is not fraud right like you can there are plenty of companies that have great stories and just not a lot of substance right maybe they're building something and they're building just a not a very good version of it but they still you know continue to raise money yeah i mean and so in the like post.com world there was a guy named barney pell who started a company called moon express who was trying to deliver like basically build a moon colony great story raised a bunch of money didn't get anywhere it failed and it wasn't a fraud it was just like like all the investors were like obviously bummed but they were like yeah like i wanted you to try to build i don't know it might have been a legal thing but i uh but but i'm pretty sure what happened i need to actually you know deep dive the company but um but i'm pretty sure it's like yeah if you if you're as an investor there's a lot of times when you put money in a company and you're like hey i wanted you to try this and i know that it's a 10 chance that it works out and if it fails yeah no hard feelings uh nakil in the chat says hindenburg meets hindenburg research meets the information oh yeah that would be good somebody does that it's it would it would get a you slap that behind a paywall and you'll be you know have have some nice revenue in no time yeah yeah it's great uh everyone nabeel says well articulated it's not ideal but the alternatives feel worse there does have to be a way to improve anyway let's move on to mateo over at eight sleep he says it's so exciting to see eight sleep on tv during the final of the premier pedel in riad supporting the number one team in the world of coelo and tapia i don't know that much about padel but i think it's on the ground no patel padel is the cool version of pickleball not to throw too much shade at uh volunteer uh palantir's pickleball paddle i i think it's great if you're you know doing paddle-esque sports but um but yeah it's just a faster higher pace more athletic uh more intense version boom boom got your eight sleep hat on there you go thankfully i caught that that would have been yeah that would be deeply embarrassing yeah i never would have recovered but yeah i mean it's cool that eight sleep is i mean it's such a fun brand because like yeah it's a consumer tech company hardware company but they get to go and play an f1 and pro sports teams and it's uh yeah it's a lot of fun anyway getting eight sleep it's a no-brainer we love eight sleep here uh speaking of other sponsors we love let's move on to ramp uh aaron says this is why i love ramp and he's uh quote posting ramp's official account it says last friday our team attended the eagles parade in philadelphia for some on the ground journalism what we found might shock you and they have all these they do this funny video of like uh you know people with ramp signs at the philadelphia celebration it's great they're really they're getting so much out of the super bowl ad it is crazy i guarantee this thing is roi positive uh which is more than you can say for a lot and it shows like taking that scrappy approach of saying hey we made this big investment but let's make the most of it exactly i guarantee you doritos ran their ad and they were like cool like pat on the back we're done we'll see you next year yeah um and uh packy packy's a big uh eagles fan i think he grew up outside of philadelphia okay yeah he'll correct me if i miss that.
1:36:25But yeah, love to see Philly fans get a win. Having fun. Yeah, that's great. Well, let's move on to a bezel deep dive. We got just add on, add on, add now. These ads are brought to you by AdQuick. I can mix in some reviews that have ads in them. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Let's do that. Let's go to some reviews of the ads. The ads in the reviews are presented by AdQuick, by the way. To be clear, the best way to buy at a home ads for your startup. So I got the first one. I honestly, every time I read these ads, it just makes my heart sing. It gets better every time. So zero to one, but unhinged by somebody named John, uh, the technology brothers podcast.
1:37:03Isn't just a show. It's a founder's dojo, a 10 X brain gym and a capital allocators confessional all wrapped into one. Every episode is a masterclass and thinking from first principles, moving fast and breaking every norm, except the ones that print cash. Amazing. John and Jordy don't just talk tech they talk trajectory listen long enough and you'll either build something great or realize you never had the stomach for it in the first place but let's talk execution you know what else requires ruthless efficiency managing your finances when the system wasn't built for you that's when purple comes in so this is a really cool startup purple is the first banking and benefits platform built for the disability community because fintech forgot millions of americans who actually need financial tools built for real life checking accounts ebt integrations uh a b l e able savings all in one place purple built the mercury for people with disabilities because dealing with social security makes raising a series a look easy check it out at with purple.com that's cool that makes so much sense yeah yeah yeah it's kind of like all of tech wanted to focus on how do i reinvent the amex you know yeah like uh platinum card how do i make this cool credit card that has like restaurant reservations meanwhile like massive opportunities sitting here with purple to just build tools for this you know narrow uh you know subset of people who will switch from their primary bank you imagine that most of the people that are feeling that frustration are not immediately like oh i gotta go build a startup whereas you know a lot of like obviously like ramp isn't a highly competitive like they need like imo gold medalists and like the best venture capitalists in the world and like tons of money and and team members because everyone who's built a company has thought you know i need better CFO software, right?
1:38:48And like expense management and corporate cart. So that's going to be a very hot market. This is like a place where you could actually probably go in, break in, make a statement and then grow your business off of that. So I just think that's fascinating. And that's just something that like it would never come up on a market map. It would never come up in like a brainstorming session. You're not going to hear some thread guy say like, once he sells for a billion, somebody, some VC will be like, we need the market map for disability. Awesome. Thank you, John, for the review. I got another one. Okay.
1:39:17And then we'll jump into some other ones. Relentless alpha by username. I'm having fun. Five stars. The technology brothers are at it five days a week, consistently delivering fresh alpha right out of the oven on the most relevant news in tech. Let's go. It's like taking a peek into the elite group chats. You've never been a part of with two to three hours of top tier daily content from the brotherhood. I no longer have time to catch the latest flop guest rotation. That's brutal. brutal but there have been some flops lately even though naval went on i thought that was cool oh yeah i gotta watch that one this review is sponsored by psychedelic science the premier psychedelic conference globally hosted in denver this june don't miss 300 speakers covering the latest breakthroughs in psychedelic research alongside 12 000 attendees mark andreessen can yap about ayahuasca one-shotting founders all he wants but just because it's no longer contrarian to be into psychedelics doesn't mean they deserve newfound hate from silicon valley i think that's correct they're not without risks and they're not for everyone but there's no debating their immense potential for healing creativity and let's be honest fun register today to learn about the latest psychedelic research policy and culture this summer uh great great uh he's sort of uh predicted any pushback from our audience and just nailed it it was good uh sounds very cool i imagine like this seems like something tim ferris would would uh attend or speak at i wonder if he has already but um very cool thank you to i'm having fun great username for uh a business like that yeah yeah very interesting uh any others we got more i'll just rip through them again sponsor this one's also sponsored by ad correct okay let's go uh this review is and then there's also another ad in there okay separate business cool um uh no wonder this is from cody ames no wonder everyone i i know told me to watch this if they said x is ahead of the world john and geordi are ahead of x they take the largest feats and most interesting developments from startups and bc to broader technology and business then extract it into an engaging and easy to listen to format couldn't recommend this podcast enough to anyone who needs a quick and easy way to digest the biggest news you won't find anywhere else i also heard they're the most profitable podcast which is no shocker this is the the the obvious spot to advertise your company or uh any news you have so actually didn't cody didn't put an ad in here uh that's my only critique he was he was talking to us about open axe his company yeah yeah it's very cool and i believe cody is also a car guy who i i he's maybe rebuild it i don't want to get it wrong because it'd be very offensive but uh amg hammer he's a hammer guy he's a hammer yeah and so uh this is like the most like legendary uh mercedes um kind of like mercedes muscle car essentially like i mean a fantastic driver's vehicle uh and I think he's restoring, rebuilding, modifying, recreating one.
1:42:00But he's invested a ton of time and obviously deserves the respect of the tech community for his incredible automotive innovations. Yeah, and I got the last review, which is short, but perfect from username DudeWhat'sMineSay on Friday. He says, F.P. Jorn of Tech Podcast, five stars. Nothing more needs to be said. Yeah, fantastic review. Fantastic. Do another review, put an ad in it. I feel like we need to give back for that. Well, speaking of watches, we got a promoted post from bezel. Let's talk about the Rolex Day-Date, the president in 18 carat yellow gold with a factory diamond set bezel and green lacquer dial just landed on bezel.
1:42:48This isn't just a watch. It's a status symbol, a power move on the wrist. Let's break it down. The watch of the elite launched in 1956. The day date was the first watch to display the day and the date in full. And so if you don't know about watch complications, you can kind of think about it in there's a hierarchy here. You add each complication up. You start with the time only. Just got the time on your wrist. Then you add a date complication. Date just. Just tells you the date, just the number. Then day date is going to tell you it's Friday the 26th. It's Tuesday the 18th. then you can get into more perpetual calendars which keep the time out for years and years and years annual calendars which are right for 364 days of the year and then you have to reset and then you get there's even an eternal calendar there now that goes out like a thousand years or something and then there's moon phase complications all sorts of complications and so but the day date is great because you just look down you immediately know hey it's tuesday the 18th and this is the watch of the elite uh it's been the go-to for presidents ceos and anyone who needs their watch to say i make decisions that matter i love it why is it called the president the first u.s president to rock the day-date lyndon b johnson by the late 60s it had earned the nickname the president's watch that's pretty good marketing yeah it's gotta say it's worn by world leaders moguls power players this watch run things uh rolex doesn't make the day-date and steal only precious metals.
1:44:15That's the rule. This one, 18K yellow gold forged in Rolex's in-house foundry because even their gold has to be better than everyone else's. It is a factory diamond set bezel, pure opulence. You know, we love opulence here. There's a difference between aftermarket diamonds and Rolex diamonds. Rolex hand selects and sets every stone under strict standards, meaning this bezel isn't just flashy, it's flawless. Green lacquer dial. This is Rolex's power color. Rolex green equals money, prestige, and legacy. The deep lacquer finish on this dial, gives it a richness that pops against the gold and so like a lot of people see these watching oh rolex it's just like so expensive and it's just such a flashy thing like i i enjoy this stuff because i'm a nerd for this and i think it's really cool that like even the most minor little details have a story and and and there's some sort of it's it's it's as engineering minded as anything else and so that's why i'm excited about i think you need a day date soon because yeah the first time we met i distinctly remember asking you at some point i was like wait so do you want to be like the president someday i was just like i was trying to figure out like what you wanted to do turns out it was be a podcast podcaster but um but you know that that that's a well-trodden path the reality tv to the white house is is well established at this point um but yeah uh also if you've seen glengarry glenn ross the watch that alec baldwin wears is a uh gold rolex uh day-date presidential uh and he pulls it out there's this iconic scene where he says look at this watch, this watch costs more than your car.
1:45:42He says coffee is for closers, always be closing. That's where that comes from. And that was another movie, I think in the 80s or maybe 90s that popularized the presidential day date even more. And the presidential bracelet is particularly special here. It's the ultimate flex, it's the three link president bracelet was designed specifically for the day date. It's smooth, seamless and also hides the class because true luxury is effortless. It's one of the most comfortable bracelets Rolex makes. So would you wear it? Let us know in the comments. Think you can pull it off? Head to the Bezel app, download it.
1:46:16And it's just, yeah, there you go. Oh, look at that. I mean, it's just so iconic. Jordi, do you know about how you should tell if you should wear silver or gold? Are you familiar with this? The veins thing? No, I'm actually not. So there's this thing where a lot of women know about this with makeup. There's this idea of like, if you have warm undertones or cool undertones, and then for a woman, you should match your foundation to that. And so there's this critique that's going on on like Instagram right now that I randomly saw, which is like a Republican woman makeup is like, I guess the left is like critiquing Republican women for doing their makeup wrong.
1:46:57And a lot of the things that they get wrong is that they have cool undertones, but they're using warm foundation. And for men, oftentimes it's, it's, if you have cool undertones, you're better off with silver. And if you're have warm undertones, you have, you're better off with gold. And so the way you figure this out is you look at your veins and if your veins look blue, you have cool undertones. And if they look more green, you have, uh, you have warm undertones. And so the classic example is just like, you know, I'm obviously like Swedish and very like Northern. And so I have blue undertones, blue blood.
1:47:28And more like Italian guy is gonna have greener undertones. And that Italian guy is gonna look good in gold, right? And so when you think about the, you know, the mafia guy, the Italian guy, the Tony Soprano, he's gonna have more green undertones and that's gonna lend itself to being able to rock a gold watch. Now, I recently bought, not even a real gold watch, just a watch that happens to be gold. I think it's maybe gold plated. but just to try it on and see if I can pull it off because I want to dip my toe in before I really try and go full gold. But for now, I've been sticking with silver and I've been very happy and I think it matches my tones and my colors and my style.
1:48:08Same here. I'm glad that I'd never even heard of that rule. Yeah. But fortunately, I'm blue. I mean, it makes sense. Like, look at you. And we're both rocking silver. Exactly. Nice. Well, let's move on to the next promoted post. you gotta you gotta stages out uh well i mean this is like yeah it's an ad for public but it's really a blog post that we would talk about on the show anyway uh it's from their founder and co-co leaf abraham uh he says we ship a lot in all areas of business by the way obvious yeah he has a very unique casio which we'll have to have him on the show sometime to show it off but anyways we'll have to use the casio in the picture here oh yeah totally yeah uh we'll have to get him on bezel and see what he picks out.
1:48:54And so he says, we ship a lot in all areas of the business. It's obviously cultural. And one of the philosophies we embrace is what we call pace management. And I thought there was an interesting little management tip for founders because Leaf is obviously running like a very high performance organization and he probably has some interesting stuff to share. And so he says, time is the most precious resource we have and we must ensure that we manage it well. A new method we will be talking about frequently that that you all should embrace is pace management. And this was actually just an email that he sent out to the team.
1:49:24And so it's kind of cool that he like published this after the fact, this is a good example of going direct. Just like he didn't, he's not like becoming an influencer. He's just taking content that he's already writing. Exactly. And then just publishing it. Yeah. So he says, as a manager, you are responsible, not just for the quality of the work, but also for the speed at which it gets delivered. Time savings compound dramatically over time. Letting time slip away costs everyone money, not just the company, but every one of your coworkers, Here's how to manage pace. You got to take ownership of the pace, drive the pace of the project, despite knowing that the urgency you instill might make some people uncomfortable at times.
1:49:59You got to break this project into small manageable pieces. You need frequent deadlines with quick check-ins. Let's regroup next week as the enemy. Check in with the group progress at least every 48 hours. I like this. This is the Chris Saka thing. Like people ask, oh, when do you want this? Q2, Q3, Q tomorrow. Isn't that what he said? Q Friday. How about Q Friday? I like that. That's fun. Thank you, Friday. And this is very similar. Yeah, check in more frequently. Don't throw things, yeah, next week. Keep teams small. Make sure every person knows exactly what they are responsible for and that everyone else on the team does too.
1:50:34And then project-specific channels. Sometimes it helps to create project-specific channels. Dedicated space allows for focused discussions even on the smallest details. So some good advice from Leaf over at Public. and if you're looking for a portfolio. If you're building a company and you're wondering if you're going fast enough, well, we went from one day a week to two days a week to three days a week, five days a week. Eventually we'll be doing eight, nine, 10 days a week. 10 days a week. Let's move over to Sam Altman. He's thinking about open source and stuff. He asked X for our next open source project would it be more useful to do an 03 mini level model that is pretty small but still needs to be run on gpus i thought you're saying he asked rock i was like yeah i thought sam was asking rock for very funny advice uh in meta or the best phone sized model we can do and uh this was sitting right at 50 50 and then dylan patel chimes in from semi-analysis he says i can't believe x users are so stupid not voting for 03 mini is insane you can literally already distill 40 claude 3.5 deep seek v3 into sizes that will run on phones and it's just funny that like yeah obviously like that the hackathon kill and kind of generally continues to be a dominant post phenomenal phenomenal uh and uh should we report a murder yeah this one needs to be reported all right so this is on bc brags he says i'd like to report a murder uh delian says i've ended up leading more rounds in the last four months than the prior three years combined not sure what it means but i guess we are so back question mark chamath says means you've decided for whatever reason that time diversity doesn't matter in portfolio construction spoiler alert it does dallian says ha thankfully not too many 2021 spec shares in my portfolio construction either quick 10x ratio quick work um this this one this one i i'm i'm surprised that you know maybe chamath was down to get ratioed and just felt like you know becoming a supporting character in the timeline for the day but coming for this one is the most dangerous thing you're playing with a cobra on the timeline yeah cobra and then also and then also trying to critique somebody for time-based portfolio construction where chamath you know basically spearheaded the largest investment into this like novel you know sort of financial product into highly speculative speculative companies yeah at in a very condensed time period so it's just like kind of set yourself up for that also is jimoth a seed investor like has he done seed stage investing i don't think of him as like seeding big in the other grok the g-r-o-q as at seed i think so okay he incubated didn't he i i purely think of him as like growth stage and like uh SPAC guy now uh but maybe he does but like yeah Delian like you know I I don't think like if you're doing seed deals like the time-based portfolio construction yeah so he put 10 million into Grok G-R-O-Q which was a google yeah team that spun out yeah I I saw a funny thing about Grok with the Q uh everyone's talking about Grok 3 which has a K and Harry Stebbings is like here's my interview with Grok CEO and it's the GROQ.
1:54:07So he like knew that he should drop that to like, you know, farm off of the energy or something that people would pull over. I thought that was funny. Anyway, let's move on to the new president of Syria. I thought this was funny. This guy had quite the path. Buko Capital Bloke says, intern, Al-Qaeda, then associate, al-Qaeda then senior associate al-Qaeda then insurgent at various and then president of syria and uh this is from an interview the new president of syria ahmed al-shara did uh with leading some small youtube channel i guess uh and they said and he says i joined al-qaeda because i was a 19 year old and there wasn't any other venue to take part in politics also because i want skills and experience i already built all government institutions in idlib before the offensive this ensures we can immediately take over and prevent anarchy and yeah uh i mean obviously like you know the american propaganda during the war on terror was very much like oh it's like a bunch of like terrorists in caves they're just like completely running around but it's like no they have time sheets they have time cards and they have to-do lists and tracking and inventory management and payroll software yeah yeah and like uh what what's the big one uh like what's the net suite erp basically um and yeah i mean uh the these like large terrorist organizations are like there are i mean he's obviously joking with like the intern associate senior associate but there are like career paths and like tracks that you can like move up in yeah it's it's it's worth noting that if you look at terrorist organizations or drug cartels you don't become these sort of nation state level players or you know multi multi-billion dollar enterprises without being highly organized and having real leadership hierarchies and stuff like that so that's why i've joked before about pablo escobar being the greatest cpg founder of all time yeah because even if you told somebody you can break every law under the sun they would not be able to bootstrap company to 22 billion of annualized revenue in a decade right oh we got to put deep research on this or the fans uh uh jordy and i were on a call with david senra last night from the founders podcast and we were debating how big was uh uh like like just the cocaine industry i guess like how would you benchmark that i guess like big oil big tobacco what's the tam what's the market size I was arguing that it was probably over a trillion dollars in like market cap if you applied some sort of price to earnings multiple on however much money is going on.
1:56:53What was the total revenue? How big of a player was this guy? And should you put, I don't know why I'm blanking on his name. Who's the greatest CPG founder again? Pablo. Pablo. Pablo Escobar. Should you hang his jersey in the rafters of, I mean, certainly greatest criminals of all time, but you know, how big was his enterprise? And I wonder how many employees he had working for him if he really mapped out the entire org. Is it like thousands or tens of thousands? But imagine if he could get the same revenue on that$22 billion as figure. He would have a hundred and potentially whatever comes after a trillion.
1:57:32Quadrillion. Quadrillion. A quadrillion. A quadrillion, yeah. Anyways, I got another post here from Arfor Rock. If you're not following Arfor Rock, great poster. he's come out the gates sharing uh sort of behind the scenes on rounds that are getting done he'll typically talk about around two to three months before it gets announced so uh his point of view is that he does it to help make rounds more competitive because you can imagine if you're a big uh capital allocator and you see r4rock posts such and such round getting done and you hit up your associate and you're like why haven't we seen this yet you like get on the phone with them and so definitely i'm sure it helps you do some sponsored posts with him momentum no i think we should have him on the show for a segment where he speaks through like an anonymous like voice you know Trent you know some some make him sound uh like Steve Jobs or something like that and just talk about um you know all the stuff he's seeing but he's got an update here this was underreported uh USV came out with a new core fund in 2024 they have historically taken you know uh the approach of staying small focusing on returns focusing on the real craft of venture and that they're not sort of a high volume investor.
1:58:42They're making a handful of new bets, typically doing them, you know, very early. And so he outlines like their total fund performance, which their first fund in 2004 was about$100 million fund. It ended up grossing$1.5 billion, so almost close to a 15x there. And then you just go down the list, pretty much every single fund except their 2019 Opportunity Fund, which for those that don't know, an Opportunity Fund is more, hey, we have a bunch of early stage companies that have done well. And so the 2019 Opportunity Fund is the only fund on this list that isn't like top decile, basically. And it's sitting at 1.3 % IRR.
1:59:28And you have to imagine they sort of deployed that fund at the absolute top into their companies that they knew already that were good companies that just were kind of a little bit frothy. So anyways, could still turn around. Who knows? But one of the goats, certainly the New York City goat, almost deserving of a place in the Holy Trinity. Hasn't quite scaled and had the impact. Yeah, hasn't scaled yet. Cool to see though. you gotta leave it as a trilogy you can't can't make it quadrilogy it never works um well let's move on to promoted posts from wander uh we got a great spot up in big sir jordy have you been to big sir i have i've driven through it some of my fondest memories as a kid really big sir i went up there with my family went uh inner tubing down the river i remember that really fondly uh founders fund just had a big event out there for all the defense tech folks it's really it's really california at its best right it's coastal it's rugged you've got the mountains meeting the sea yeah it's totally fantastic and there's a beautiful photo here what's cool about the wander is that you know there's going to be fast wi-fi so i feel like we can go stay there we can still hit uh hit you know stream and not worried about reliability it's actually we're not in a Wander for PMF or die, unfortunately.
2:00:55And that's been like the number one issue is that we're trying to stream HD video. And so showing up to an Airbnb and not having quality Wi-Fi is a terrible experience. Wander fixes that among a bunch of other stuff. And so Zachary Slayton, MBA says, what a great weekend spent in Big Sur. Not only were the views and drive incredible, but our Wander house made the experience just that much better. Great experience, great service, amazing amenities. Highly recommended. Take a look, share some beautiful videos and pictures and this is so funny because you know uh 18 likes pretty small post we love it it's a great post but now you're gonna get a video reply from this podcast zachary welcome to technology brothers uh just you know basically going forward now that we're partnering with wander it's like anyone who posts about wander is gonna get random clips from us uh but we love the post and thanks for sharing because uh this is a place where I might stay.
2:01:52And I'm glad to see it on the timeline. Amazing. I actually have some more breaking news. We've got a company called High Touch. Raises$80 million at a$1.2 billion valuation. They came out of YC. We'll have to ask Gary about them. This one came out of nowhere. I don't know what their last round was done at, but I'm looking on their site right now. And they're already working with Spotify, Aritzia, Warner Music Group, PetSmart, TripAdvisor, Whoop, Cars.com, Plaid, Ramp. so they work with ramp so they must be great okay calendly get lab docu-sign greenhouse and they do like marketing personalization tools okay with ai um anyways um absolutely massive one it's always a number of times recently maybe it's a sign of a little bit of frothiness or just these companies are growing really quickly you hear about a company for the first time when they're raising at north of a billion yeah and for somebody that's like highly tuned into um the the sort of flow of new companies that doesn't happen that much yeah yeah i mean yeah you go back to like yeah like hearing about anduril 2016 like yeah their first round i think they raised 10 million dollars and that was a lot but it's like they raised it everyone in tech heard about it and it was i i don't know i don't remember the first valuation it was probably like 10 on 100 or 10 on 80 or something and then now it's like you're learning about companies when they're already unicorns uh but also you know b2b you know kind of like you know under the radar founders that's kind of the nature of these things.
2:03:18But good luck to them. And I'm sure there are some powerful metrics underneath that raise. I guarantee it. Because this stuff's hot and there's a lot of marketing automation to do. So we'll have to do a deep dive on them. That'd be cool. Maybe have them on the show. Let's go to Blake Robbins. He says, careers are shaped by people, not logos. And he posts, he's been changing up his format. I like this. Some screenshot essays more or less. Bringing stuff to the timeline. He says, At 21, I joined Ludlow Ventures with no experience in venture capital. Instead of giving me a strict set of rules, Jonathan Brett did something that shaped my entire career.
2:03:54They trusted me to chase my curiosity. They gave me agency when they had every reason not to trust a new grad. That trust rewired how I think about ownership, risk, and possibility. I got lucky. The conventional wisdom in tech is clear. Join a high-growth startup to accelerate your career. The logic makes sense. Rapid growth creates opportunities. Responsibilities expand faster than org charts. and you learn by doing rather than watching. But this advice misses something fundamental. Who you work for matters more than where you work. I completely agree with this. It's like if you have a good person that you're working with, it's way more valuable than just the logo.
2:04:31Yeah. And they define your mental model for excellence. Tech loves to worship pedigrees. The other thing is when you're working, when you're coming out of, let's say you go to college, you come out of school, it's so hard to evaluate evaluate if people are truly world-class yep like for me i came out of school uh i was working on a bunch of youtube stuff working with sean and connor at the ridge i love them as people i they were clearly very talented but it actually took me five years and like to work with a bunch of other people to realize how good they were yeah that's a good point yeah and uh yeah it's been it's been awesome to see but again it's so hard to figure out like just yeah obviously there are there are normal distributions and bell curves like all over even high performing organizations like the worst harvard grad like the dumbest harvard grad is going to be like way dumber than the smartest like you know i don't know community college grad right like because there's going to be overlap in these in these uh in these normal distributions and and that happens within companies too he says tech loves to worship company pedigrees x stripe x ramp x and roll these labels imply excellence but they mask the real story what matters is who mentored these people great companies don't create great talent by default it's the leaders within them who nurture ambition challenge thinking and build environments where people thrive yeah there's a lot of people that are like oh i was early at this company and then you see some of the early photos and you're like why aren't you in that photo i had i got i've gotten absolutely cooked hiring for logo pedigree totally oh like not not every time but like almost 50 percent of the time uh and the challenge is somebody joining as the uh somebody joining as the you know thousandth employee at an iconic company they could be great yep they could be great but not even have an impact right like they could just be great and sort of exist within the structure yep and so um yeah you just got to really really press people and not let them sort of slide into roles based on yeah having worked at relevant yeah i mean you think about the path of like locky groom who was not just like at stripe i don't even know if he was that early at stripe but he went into stripe and then very quickly became like the money guy for patrick yeah right and it's like he was running like their ventures team more or less or like doing something with investing and then sam altman set him up with a fund and like it was very quickly he was on like a massive like you know high growth thing and got a ton of AUM and that's very different from like oh yeah i went in and like i was kind of on a team that wasn't like super high performing.
2:07:03And I just kind of like, you know, work nine to five. Yeah. And like, yeah. What is, what is Jeremy Giffon talk about? Like you want to be like off the, he talks about off the org chart, you know, running the ventures program at like an, like at a company where the founders care about that program a lot. Yeah. Yeah. No meetings, no, no bosses, but employed by the company. That's like an ideal scenario if possible. Yeah. It's fascinating. um big news massive uh promoted post from sotheby's a lot of people want to check this out uh banksy's crude oil uh from the collection of blink 182's mark hoppus will headline the uh modern and contemporary evening auction at sotheby's london on march 4th so if you're headed over to this auction house uh check out uh the collection of mark hoppus from blink 182 i thought this was fun to share i know a lot of you guys in the in the uh in the community are uh art collectors and often at sotheby's so you want the heads up and now you know um let's move over to bo yeah by the way bo just texted me and said uh it cracks me up how little john knows about ufc because he saw that whenever we talked about it yesterday so you're going on we're going on record right now john you got to learn about the number one sport in america and uh we got to go we got to go to a card i was playing it up a little bit but it was very funny that's great being like like who's this schmuck calling out my friend bo i don't know who this is like of course it's like a ufc guy anyway uh great anyway uh We love him.
2:08:46Let's go back to Wander, Kyle Tibbetts. This is a big promotion episode. Lots of ads. Sometimes we do a lot of bucket pulls. Sometimes we do a lot of deep dives. Sometimes we do a lot of bangers. That's the whole point of the show. Well, after this, let's slam through a bunch of posts. Okay. So Kyle says, one of the best designed app at launch I've ever seen. Stoked to be an investor. Great job at the Protector team. So Nikita Beer has been advising a company called Protector, which allows you to book armed agents. They're debuting in Los Angeles and New York City at number three on the App Store.
2:09:20And so this is kind of the latest Nikita Project. He pumps out a lot of stuff. Well, I think this is a company he's advising and supporting, potentially through intro. So I thought this was interesting because back in 2014, Uber was really hot and there was an Uber for everything. And there was a company that went through YC with basically this exact idea. it was called like bouncer or something i forget what it's called it was like book uber for bouncers uh i sent it into the chat at some point um but you know maybe that idea wasn't it wasn't the right time for that but maybe this is the one um what's interesting is that uh disintermediation is always a risk with these platforms yeah that was the problem with the dog walker apps is that is that once you find a good dog walker on a dog walker app you just say hey let's not use the app just come every week at this time.
2:10:10Uh, and so that's always been a risk. Whereas with Uber, like, even if I have a guy who's reliable to take me to the airport or like you, you have a guy or like, Oh yeah, I know a guy who gave me his card. And like, if I'm going out with friends for a long time and I want to rent it, rent the limo for the whole weekend or something like all I'll call him, but you know, I, I'm not just going to have a guy follow me around all the time. Yeah. Yeah. It really comes down to trust how much, you know, with, with, so I'm sure there's an opportunity for protector, right? Just the pure novelty of, oh, I just called this like armed security guard to where I am.
2:10:45Jeremy talks about this, right? Like there's lots of opportunities of take things that the ultra wealthy love and then make them accessible to the masses through these sort of on-demand platforms. So I'm sure there's a market opportunity for this. I'd say overall, again, you call an Uber, you don't care who picks you up as long as the car is generally clean and they're fast whereas things like this security is is ultra high trust right so you you would much rather have somebody that you know yeah well and that you know has like great training and that you have a good relationship with because if they're needed in any way you know you want to know that you can rely on them i i think that maybe the app can actually do a good job there because if they're onboarding agents and they have a very rigorous process um it's totally possible to have the app uh at the same time if the customers don't demand that you know that the apps will and the platforms will coalesce towards something that's a little bit sloppier but that's fine because if you're on a marketplace app and yeah you're just like look i just want to be in tulsa and i want it to be the cheapest thing ever and i don't care if the furniture's from timu like yeah there's an app for that um but you know this i it's it's kind of you know it's up to them how they curate the marketplace um it will be interesting i have no idea how he got this to number three in the app store so fast he's a master you can you because there can't be that many people like you're telling me there's more people booking armed agents than booking vrbo's there's ways there's ways so here's a potential way so you use you know these sort of algorithmic uh feeds to generate you know views on your content let's say you're producing a bunch of content and running ads there's ways to do these sort of like pre-downloads or almost like pre-ordering the apps where you can like get somebody to say like i want to i'm i want to download this and then when you release it you can drive all that let's say a hundred thousand one day and then you'll rank sure even though even though you know maybe the next day you won't because i mean i i love the idea of armed agents being on demand i think that it's probably like a very good thing and will increase safety and reduce crime which i think is good uh but i would hate to live in a country where an app for booking armed agents is more popular than nice vacation rentals.
2:12:59That's like a very black, like our society is truly degrading if it's like, oh yeah, people are like, the gun app is more popular than, like the gun store is more popular than the luxury goods store. Anyway, good luck to the team. Awesome launch. Love to see that Nikita's working with it. Very interesting to follow along and see where that goes. Anyway, we got a promoted posts from uh koenigsegg uh there's a 2021 koenigsegg regera out uh obviously you're gonna have to bid against sam do you think they yeah you think they posted this knowing that yes i would see it not for sure for sure you know they go on for those that don't know sam altman uh loves koenigseggs loves all sports cars he's a mclaren absolute fiend fiend uh he he loves them you know as he says he's doing open ai because he loves loves it and he's also you know buying cars because he just loves cars i'm a simple guy i'm very pro sam altman the car guy that's one of the main reasons i'm working he was saying that he was using deep research to find this sort of obscure acura yeah i guess he was successful obscure it's an nsx bro well he could have said i need to find one with with this sure sure yeah that's true yeah anyway zero to 60 in less than three seconds top speed of 250 miles an hour if you're looking for a new daily driver maybe you work in ai maybe you just raised a billion, did some secondary, pick up a Koenigsegg.
2:14:20Yeah. Maybe, maybe you work at PETA and you're, you see the money coming from the for-profit conversion and you're like, yeah, I'm going to be rich. Pick this up. Let everyone know that you're serious about the for-profit conversion. And when you pull up to the investor meetings, you're like, really PETA? And they're like, well, he's already got the Koenigsegg Regera. So yeah, he must be the real deal. He must have a really good plan for how he's going to monetize this going forward. So We'd love to see it. Anyway, we quote tweeted this on the PMF or Die feed, but we thought we'd cover it here just to throw a reply towards Starter Story.
2:14:57If you're not familiar with Starter Story, YouTube channel that profiles, does video interviews and profiles on independent builders, hackers, entrepreneurs, and they did one on Blake, our boy in the cage. And so Starter story says he taught himself how to code with chat gpt he built three iphone apps made 10 million in revenue we called him up and asked him to break it all down they talked for hours but cut out all the fluff to give you all the alpha i love it and so there's 20 minute video uh blake is an absolute beast he breaks down a bunch of different business ideas and if you want to know more about player one in the cage you can watch this 20 minute video to get an idea of who blake is an absolute dog an absolute dog it is 107 how we doing on time we're good cool i uh i think we should wrap yeah let's wrap pretty soon um let's go to uh duolingo oh this is good uh trey stevens is doing an event on march 6th if you're in san francisco go check it out uh lee marie braswell over at Kleiner Perkins, another holy trinity venture capital firm.
2:16:08She says, join me on March 6th at an event with Trey Stevens where he's discussing one of my fave posts ever, choose good quests. Link in comments. Hat tip to his co-author, Marky Wagner, who's an absolute dog as well. Trey is one of the most mission-driven people I've ever met, as well as an inspiration for practicing Christians in tech. When Trey talks about both building great companies while also finding purpose i listen if you haven't read choose good quests it's fantastic i highly recommend it uh i think he should turn it into a book i hope he does uh but you can go hear him talk about it at this event and so go find the luma and go uh go to this event if you're in sf on march 6th anyway i think that's a good place to close out oh we got to talk about your bags you've been killing it with NVIDIA.
2:17:02And somebody had the same idea as you. McKay Wrigley says, can we talk about how unbelievably stupid the market reaction to DeepSeek was? Compute got more useful and everyone sold. Literally today for Grok 3, Elon goes, oh yeah, we bought another 100K of H100s and mentioned a new 1.2 gigawatt data center. Nobody is going to buy less GPUs. And this shows that the price of NVIDIA is exactly what it was a month ago, right before the DeepSeek drop. And I think you bought the bottom. Yeah, when DeepSeek launches Sunday, they have their fake run-up in the App Store. Everybody's sort of talking broadly about Jevons Paradox and all this stuff.
2:17:46It just seems like it was, for a company to go down 15 % like that, it just seemed way oversold. And I have no idea what NVIDIA stock does over the long term. But yeah, I just bought right as everybody was panicking and just, you know, back up, you know, up 15 % since then. But you're going to look easy, Jordy. Make it look easy. But we are in the news business. We are in the casting business, not the financial advice business. So that's right. Good luck out there. Stay safe. Avoid doing anything that your mother would not approve of. Well said. Have some good etiquette. Focus on your manners.
2:18:23Have you coined that? I'm working on it. what would your mother say? Yeah. Too many letters. That's my current philosophy for how you should behave yourself, especially on the internet. What would your mother say? Make your mom proud. What would your mother say about you launching that meme coin and rugging it immediately? What would your mother say about you getting in a petty fight with another technology leader publicly on X? What would your mother say about you asking your date to split the check? Embarrassing. Don't do that. Embarrassing. um you gotta you gotta dive into that one next time yeah we'll cover it eventually we're gonna be doing a big etiquette deep dive big manners update giving you the the you know how to use each fork uh how to tie a tie we're gonna be working on that how to drive stick these things are important how to make your bed anyway leave us a five-star review on apple podcast and spotify and uh keep watching us and expect a lot of new updates we're we're we're cooking we are cooking Thanks for watching.
2:19:19We will see you tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Bye.
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