Insurance Companies Deep Dive, Wanted Fugitives, Run On Mahogany, Yearling Lot 1007

13 Jan 2025 · 1 h 50 min

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Podcast Episode Notes: TBPN - Insurance Companies Deep Dive, Wanted Fugitives, Run On Mahogany, Yearling Lot 1007

Episode Overview

  • Podcast Title: TBPN (Technology Brothers Podcast Network)
  • Episode Title: Insurance Companies Deep Dive, Wanted Fugitives, Run On Mahogany, Yearling Lot 1007
  • Release Date: Not specified
  • Duration: Approx. 2 hours
  • Streaming Platforms: X, Apple, Spotify, YouTube

Key Segments

  1. Air Quality in LA (00:00)
  2. Hosts discuss the poor air quality in Los Angeles, exacerbated by recent wildfires.
  3. Health implications of toxic air and previous building materials are highlighted, with an emphasis on the long-term effects.
  1. Insurance Companies Deep Dive (09:14)
  2. Analysis of the insurance industry's response to disasters, particularly recent wildfires.
  3. Overview of the financial impact of the LA fires, projected to be over $150 billion, potentially surpassing Hurricane Katrina's costs.
  4. Examination of historical fires to draw parallels with current events.
  5. Discussion of innovative insurance models and the rise of companies like Kin.
  6. Historical context about State Farm, its founding, and how it became a major player in the insurance market.
  1. DMs / Listener Engagement (58:14)
  2. Interaction with listeners and responses to previous inquiries or discussions.
  1. The Timeline (01:17:50)
  2. Discussion of ongoing events and their implications for technology and insurance.

Detailed Notes

Air Quality in LA

  • Context: Recent wildfires have led to toxic air quality in LA.
  • Health Risks: Discussion of potential long-term health effects from inhaling toxins from burned buildings.

Insurance Companies Deep Dive

  • Financial Impact:
  • Wildfires in LA estimated to cost over $150 billion, with projections possibly exceeding $200 billion. Historical context includes the Camp Fire and the Lahaina Fire.
  • Historical Analysis:
  • Review of the significant impacts of previous wildfires and lessons from Australia’s wildfires.
  • Innovative Models:
  • Kin Insurance’s model contrasts with traditional insurance practices, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches.
  • Founding of State Farm:
  • Exploration of George McCurl's motivations and strategies for founding State Farm without traditional capitalist incentives.
  • Key attributes of State Farm’s rapid growth include mutual ownership and an innovative approach to underwriting and claims.

Key Themes in the Insurance Discussion

  • Natural Disasters: Increasing frequency and severity of disasters lead to higher insurance costs and the necessity for innovative risk assessment.
  • Regulatory Environment: Discussion on the role of government regulations in shaping insurance practices, especially in California.
  • Reinsurance Dynamics: Explanation of how higher costs of reinsurance impact premiums and availability of coverage.

Listener Engagement and Discussions

  • DMs: Engaging with the audience, discussing listener feedback, and incorporating their thoughts into the episode.

The Timeline

  • Continuous updates on the impact of ongoing events, such as wildfires and their implications for technology and insurance.

Key Takeaways

  • The recent LA wildfires highlight significant vulnerabilities in both residential safety and insurance practices.
  • Knowledge of historical precedents can guide future responses and innovations in the insurance sector.
  • Effective communication with listeners adds depth to the podcast, fostering a sense of community and shared learning.

Conclusion This episode of TBPN effectively weaves together the narratives of environmental disaster, the intricate workings of the insurance industry, and listener engagement. The discussions provide valuable insights into how technology intersects with real-world challenges, particularly in the face of increasing natural disasters and evolving business models in the insurance sector.

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Transcript

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0:00Welcome to Technology Brothers, the most profitable podcast in the world. Jordy why are you wearing a mask you know Taylor Lorenz might say my culture is not a costume but to that I would say uh I'm wearing this mask to draw attention to uh the very real fact that the air in LA even though the AQI is a decent spot is still deeply toxic a lot of the buildings have burned this last week were created at a time when we had very different building codes and so a lot of the materials that were used and uh in some group chats locally that i was in people were i'm actually dying uh no so people were basically saying that that a lot of this stuff is you know if you're breathing in these toxins uh health issues can oftentimes show up like years and years decades down the line so uh dude you know what blew my mind got these masks for us to record i think i'll take it off yeah we do have we are inside ventilation here but everybody should be wearing masks it's annoying it was cringe and when the experts told us to wear a mask last time maybe it wasn't based purely on um i probably shouldn't if we say experts youtube algorithm will probably flag us uh who knows i think we're already flagged anyways uh wear wear a mask if you're around uh you know what really what really makes me like kind of like terrified is you see these tours of the burned down houses and you'll see like the chimney is still there in most of these houses because the chimney is made out of bricks but there's nothing else standing and i'm like where did the refrigerators go like the refrigerators are made of metal and plastic and they literally just melted and that went up in the air so you're just breathing a refrigerator if you're breathing the air it's crazy did you see the there were cars that had, I think, aluminum wheels that just melted and just crazy patterns.

1:55But anyways. Wild. So, I mean, if you want to hear some crazy stuff, we should start with this first. We're going to do a couple deep dives, give you a little bit of history on the insurance industry. We're going to move on. We're going to still be talking about tech this week, but we thought this was an interesting opportunity to kind of break down some founders, investors, entrepreneurs who have had a major impact in insurance, construction, home development, real estate. So we're going to be taking you on a little bit tour of, you know, we always like to ask the question, even in a disaster, like who's making money, who's losing money.

2:31And you heard it on a previous episode, we did a whole deep dive on Rick Caruso, learned about his career, but there are a lot of other people that, you know, their innovations will be important to getting LA back to where it was before the disaster. And there'll be a lot of people that come in with new businesses. And so we want to deep dive all that and use that as kind of like the theme for the week, more or less. Yeah. And for, I guess for some context, because we're here in LA, so we've been sort of pretty fixated on everything going on. But as of right now, they're projecting that these fires will have cost somewhere in the range of$150 billion is the official number.

3:08As of now, everybody expects that to tick up over 200 at some point. I believe that Hurricane Katrina was somewhere around 200. So this will be more damaging than Hurricane Katrina. And then even to put it further into context, the previous most costly wildfire in U.S. history was a campfire, which happened near Chico up in Northern California. And prior to that, and another more recent event was the Lahaina fire, which was$6 billion. And then under that is the Woolsey fire, which actually burned down the house that I bought last year. It had to be completely rebuilt from the ground up. So just to put this into perspective, Lahaina fire was devastating, but it will be a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny fraction in comparison to the damage caused by the LA fires or the Newsom fires, as I think we're calling them, or the Bass fires.

4:03uh simon was putting the word out to ask uh you know what we should call them but um without further ado why don't we uh we want to kind of get i i gotta read about a historical fire first um uh because it's i mean this like the the real definitive story of the palisades fire has not been told yet but um two years ago there was a massive fire wildfire in australia and the Economist wrote a really, really eloquent and interesting deep dive on what happened and how they're changing things going forward. And I think there's a lot that you can learn about it. So Australia is the world's most fire-prone continent.

4:41When temperatures rise and the hot winds blow, a lightning strike or cigarette butt tossed thoughtlessly out of a car window can spark a flame that rapidly burgeons into a panorama of hell. I love this writer. He's so good. Temperatures at the heart of the blaze rise to 1 ,600 degrees Celsius, hot enough to melt steel. These hurl dry lightning and bursts of hot air earthward, stoking the conflagration further. Hundreds of these fires burned across Australia in the Antipodean summer of late 2019 and early 2020. There were a bunch of volunteer firefighters described being caught inside fire tornadoes.

5:21their engines overturned by vortexes of scalding wind um as residents ever termed is insane yeah as as residents made their escape they saw the aluminum wheels of parked cars melt and run down the gutter like water um by the end of summer australia lost 34 people and approximately 1 billion animals isn't that an insane stat it's crazy and then uh they go on to talk about how wow, the smoke was so large it reached the North Pole, possibly for the first time. And the question is, how do we survive this age of fire, the pyrocene? And they go into talking about some of the original people who settled Australia have a whole bunch of firefighting techniques.

6:11And it all starts with just being able to look at a mountain and understand, is it ready for a controlled burn? is the ground wet enough so you're supposed to burn when the ground is wet so just the top burns and it doesn't get as hot yeah uh and he has a bunch of this dude they interview is like such a badass a tall broad-shouldered 48 year old australian uh victor stefanson believes the solution to australia yeah uh victory yeah um believes the solution to australia's blazes lies in his people's ancient understandings of their lands australia's native flora evolved to thrive in fire. Banksia is a type of evergreen bush holds their seeds in woody capsules and these open like cooked mussels when they're scorched by flames and the seeds are released onto the cleared ash.

6:59So that's a big issue. That was a big issue this last week is eucalyptus trees which we imported. Apparently when they burn they have this sort of toxic oil that gets released that's super flammable. And so it's been very clear that the landscaping that you use, vegetation, It's a good argument to say we should just eliminate all eucalyptus trees. Yeah, I mean, here it says some eucalyptus species require burning to make new shoots sprout. Like you're supposed to burn them regularly. And so if they're in an area where there's enough fire prevention to not have regular fires, they're just going to build up and then it's just a tinderbox.

7:36Yeah. Really, really bad. Yeah, it's so wild too because all this stuff was super top of mind because I just went through the process of... getting home insurance and I almost had to use the California fair plan and I ended up finding another provider but the California fair plan which we'll get into at the end of this episode is probably bankrupt I mean it's definitely it's kind of this weird public private group but it's probably um uh doa yeah um but anyways this guy is such a chad he says if you can't burn barefoot you're probably doing it wrong just like yeah i'll go out and do a controlled burn barefoot because i'm so confident in the way that i can burn that the ground's not going to heat up and i'm going to be able to get out no problem just like really in tune like he's almost like it's like he's farming yep you know yep reading the country this involves uh he says uh there's a central principle of fire management read the country this involves examining the distribution of trees bushes and natural fire breaks the thickness of undergrowth and the amount of moisture in the ground to ascertain whether a fire will remain cool and under control every landscape is different each burn requires a fresh analysis so this dude just goes out there and burns stuff.

9:00It's pretty wild. But we should move on to the insurance industry, which is, as you mentioned, likely bankrupt in the sense of the state-backed one. And there's a bunch of interesting verses of that. I think we should do the history of State Farm and some of the insurance agencies, as well as talk about - Yeah, we'll start with some of the history. Let's start with the history and then we'll go into kind of what's happening on the ground now. So I found this short transcript from Warren Buffett at the... Camry driver? Yeah, Camry driver at a shareholders meeting. And he says, the history of insurance is quite interesting.

9:41It's not studied at business schools, but it should be because the great insurance companies of the early 1900s, Aetna, Hartford, Travelers, they had agency forces nationwide and primarily wrote businesses back then, wrote property business back then. So property insurance, they wrote a lot of fire insurance. Of course, the automobile emerged in the early 1900s. So their focus was on property insurance. They had huge agency forces throughout the United States. Property insurance agents represented these big companies across the country, and they had plenty of capital. If you look at the business in 1997, well, over 20%, probably close to 25 % of personal auto and homeowners insurance was written by State Farm.

10:20It began, I believe, in the 1920s with a fellow in Bloomington, Illinois, who we'll discuss, George McCurl. Yeah, Bloomington, Illinois. It had no agency force initially and started as a mutual company with no stock options or capital that could make someone a billionaire if they built the business. So this company began without the usual capitalist incentives that we are taught are essential for growth. And in a huge industry, it became a dominant player. So it was questions like, how did this happen? We'll talk about this later, but there's an emerging company in the home insurance space called Kin that has this structure set up where the premiums are paid into this sort of nonprofit group and like structure to put it sort of plainly.

11:09And then that nonprofit pays a licensing fee to the technology company, but like really there. So it's trying to align incentives. So the history of insurance is like finding these. It's finance. It's finance. So it's finding these like weird creative structures in order to deliver the end thing, which is protection against catastrophic risk. I mean, he'll go into more of this, but it's a great question. It's like, how did this company get so big and dominant without the usual capitalist incentives? But what's funny is like, you already know this is just gonna like tie socialists in knots because they like, there's already so much misinformation about like, oh, like Fidelity owns every company.

11:47It's the most powerful company in the world. BlackRock, same thing. And this is one of those things where it's like, well, you know, State Farm is owned by the policyholders. It's a mutual company. So it should be much harder to make the evil capitalist argument, but they're definitely not going to look that deep into this. But we will. We'll keep them in the truth zone as much as we can. So State Farm has more than twice the market share of Allstate, the second player. It became the dominant company against deeply entrenched competitors with strong distribution systems and ample capital. Incidentally, on the Fortune 500 list, State Farm has the third largest net worth of any company in the United States.

12:31This was a couple of years ago. All from Bloomington, Illinois, started by someone who had no money in it. How does that happen? That's a subject worth studying in business schools. Darwin once said he wrote down any evidence that conflicted with his convictions within 30 minutes because the mind quickly rejects contrary evidence to cherished beliefs. Isn't that cool? I think that's a great, I think that's a great, like just thing to do. Like when you find evidence that violates your, your, your strongly held beliefs, you just have to write it down because otherwise you're, you'll just be, Oh, I can't even deal with that data point because it it violates my current worldview.

13:09I love that one. And so he says, this is Warren Buffett going on. There are some long held beliefs in business schools that could be challenged by studying how a company becomes the third largest in net worth with no apparent advantage at the start. Another company in Texas, USAA, the United Services Automobile Association, has also been - By net worth, do they mean - He means market cap. Market cap. Yeah, he means market cap. He's just using net worth, which is also kind of badass. be like they're they're the same like corporations are people corporations are people great people so ussa usaa has been enormously successful with billions in net worth again and highly satisfied policyholders it has the highest renewal ratio in the country nobody studies that to my knowledge geico's founders leo goodwin and his wife left usaa in 1936 and started geico with almost no capital now we have about 2.7 percent of the auto market and we'll probably write 3.5 billion involuntary auto insurance this year.

14:07Catching State Farm will be very difficult. So I won't predict that. However, I do predict we'll gain substantial market share over the next 10 years, including this year. We have a good mousetrap. And then this is the best part of this. He basically goes into an ad read for his company, Geico. Listen to this. He says, I mentioned - Where was this again? This was at the Berkshire Shareholder. The main meeting. Yeah, the main meeting. So he's talking about - All the people that are 100. So this is an example. This is founders. You can never over promote yes and and investors yep you can never over promote your bags never right so like he's literally at the berkshire hathaway shareholder meeting you have to be a shareholder to be in that room to go there and he's still yeah i want to take a quick second to talk about geico basically he says i mentioned in the report that 40 of you would save money by insuring with us literally that's what he says not 100 or 80 because there are certain areas or professions where someone else can offer a lower price, but across the country and for all classes of drivers, we'll often have the lowest price.

15:07We can do that because we have low costs and those costs are getting even lower. We have a virtuous cycle feeding on itself. So Geico will grow significantly. Still, State Farm is very tough. I'm not going to predict catching State Farm or Allstate, but we'll catch somebody. Charlie, you want to add anything? Isn't that hilarious? It's just like 40 % of you guys could save money by switching to Geico. That reminds me when we did a ramp ad during our talk at Hereticon. Yeah. Exactly. Great ad. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, honestly, advertising to the to the targeted audiences. Anytime you have a captive audience, it's your duty to promote.

15:41You got to. You got to run an ad. And so Charlie says, I love your example of State Farm. The idea of picking an extreme case and asking what in the world is going on here is the path to wisdom. It's too bad. Many mutual companies are trying to demutualize spurred on by consultants instead of looking at State Farm. Of course, not everyone can be State Farm, but that place embedded fundamental values into its operations, the way it's selected its personnel, the way it's selected and discarded agents. It requires enormous discipline. Wouldn't you agree? Warren says, yeah, somebody obviously did something very right.

16:15Charlie goes back to say, exactly, but I don't see anyone explaining what that something was. Maybe they don't want to because it didn't fit the conventional pattern. when a company like State Farm emerges, you should try to understand it. When a company like GEICO emerges, you should do the same. Back in 1948, I believe two thirds of GEICO was for sale because the original backers who came from USAA had died. So they'd put the money in because the GEICO founders came from USAA. They put in so much money that they own two thirds of the company and they were like, let's sell it. So they were selling that stock, but nobody wanted it.

16:53And apparently State Farm had the opportunity to buy two-thirds of Geico for like a million dollars. They didn't buy it. And so Ben Graham bought it. Ben Graham, of course, Warren Buffett's mentor, wrote the father of investing, value investing. He spent six months trying to sell it. Wait, so what Senra is to podcasting? Exactly. Ben Graham is. Yeah, yeah. Got it. We're kind of like the Charlie and Warren of podcasting. He's the Ben Graham. Exactly. Let's canonize that immediately. So he spent six months trying to sell it to the major insurance companies. They all passed, even though they could see Geico offering a much cheaper product on a small scale and making money with it.

17:35So they had this like, Geico had this early traction, this product market fit basically. Like they were doing something that was cheaper and better and they scaled up. I still use Geico for auto. And every time I go to agents to get alternative quotes, I'm like, did you add a comma here? It's oftentimes like four, like five times more expensive. Is this a joke? They could have bought the entire company for 1.2 million. Instead, they stuck to their old distribution systems and got beaten up over the years by these new ideas. You have to look hard at what's really happening. And this is a great ending.

18:12He says, as Yogi Berra said, you can observe a lot just by looking. I love that. So the question is, who started State Farm? and how did he build such a great business and such a massive business without this economic incentive? And I have a theory, which I will tell you. So this is a great one. We'll go through the Wikipedia and we'll go through some of the details on George. I got to pronounce this. McCurl? McCurl. George McCurl. mccurl i think it's mccurl we'll we'll work on that but we'll just call him george we need a friend if somebody wants to build a a rapper that just helps us helps us pronounce exotic names we would use it all day long okay so i'm gonna call him george founder of state farm uh george was a second generation farmer in central illinois whose family migrated to the united states from germany as an early owner of automobiles he became concerned with high cost of auto insurance charged by all stock insurance companies at the time.

19:24And so this is from an amazing website. It is the Insurance Hall of Fame. Which everyone listening to this should aspire to. If you're in the insurance business, you gotta go for the Hall of Fame. Even if you're not, I mean, you have a better chance of getting into this Hall of Fame than most, I would imagine. And there's a great thing about why he started this. so he was upset he was upset with the high cost of auto insurance and what he realized was he was he was a rural guy he was out in central Illinois and what he realized was that the the uh insurance rates were being set by companies that were based in urban settings so it was like a Manhattan company and they were like well in Manhattan you get in car accidents all the time yeah so this is the rate we need to charge and he was like you're screwing my boys out in the farmland we're subsidizing your exactly exactly and so uh and i also i found something else i don't know where it is but it was like he uh he was obsessed with uh uh yeah okay so after returning to illinois he sold tractors and discovered that he had a skill for selling to farmers believing that city insurance companies were rooking farmers by uh with high premiums based upon city driving accident rates he became obsessed with the idea of starting his own insurance company an honest insurance company was the phrase he used great line um and and they talk about it was something i read where he was talking about his time as a uh a farmer and he was just like obsessed over like the yield of like his beans and stuff and everything about this just reads wait giga autist that's my theory every one of our listeners all the brothers are obsessed with maximizing the yield on their beans exactly the beans are just different yes times yes he was just he was clearly clearly clearly just grinder grinder and and it's amazing so he starts so he starts this company in the spring of uh 1921 taswell county farm bureau organized a township mutual insurance company which was the idea uh george used he'd been considering a mutual insurance company which is owned by those who are insured through a membership the taswell company was set up to insure property, including automobiles.

21:39He attended a meeting of the Federation of Mutual Fire Insurance Companies in the summer of 1921 in St. Louis. He spoke with the president and those discussions helped crystallize his idea of starting an honest insurance company. Eventually, his idea started to take shape and he opened his first office in late 1921 in Bloomington. In 22, he developed a prospectus and presented it to the Illinois State Association of mutual insurance companies and his plan called for his company to sell automobile insurance the association enthusiastically endorsed the plan he proceeded to get the state license he needed to operate on his 45th birthday state farm mutual automobile insurance company was in business in 1920 2020 1922 so yeah deeper into his career still made a major play made it work common massively story um he attempted to adopt programs that gave financial strength to his growing company while providing unique benefits to policyholders beyond what was offered at the time for example he adopted a strict no drinking and driving provision to reduce accidents because it was legal back then isn't that amazing he's like this is innovation if we can just get our members to stop boozing at the wheel no he's giving he sends a pr newswire unfortunately i have to announce that we will not no longer be allowing allowing road sodas for our policy always it's so funny because like now you know there's like those like chips that you can put in the car it goes in the odb2 port and like it tracks your driving and if you're like breaking really heavily like raising rates or like or like you know all sorts of things oh it's a red sports car you're more likely to get pulled over that stuff yeah yeah all sorts of stuff and like check your phone there's metro mile where if you drive less you pay less insurance there's like all these different schemes that like are trying to squeeze like the last five percent of productivity out of the auto insurance industry and he's just like what if we didn't drink and drive metro mile yes uh free dave friedberg chamas and chamath took it oh yeah they're they're they're one uh he said it was their geico yeah yeah that's cool uh wait friedberg was it yeah friedberg found it he co-founded the company yeah that's and shamath spacked it yeah um and cool idea i don't i i think the stock's way down but i don't know it might have popped all these spacks are coming back baby spacks are back a lot of them a lot of them have gone up like five i bet i i bet you if friedberg friedberg is the founder there's probably a not like some fundamental like good quality i remember talking about it yeah um uh that's cool yeah um um so he also it's actually interesting i bet you there will be a bunch not a bunch but at least a handful of chamas packs where if you buy them now they'll be like a 50 bagger yeah and then chamas and and however long will be like see like another like yeah i mean also a lot of these like they became such memes like the whole meme of like oh everything chamas backed is bad it's like a lot of these got just oversold because i mean i had a buddy who spacked his company i think it was 4 billion is the default stack that it went down to under a hundred million dollars they had 200 million dollars in cash on the balance sheet yeah it's like okay at that point like the book value should be higher than that same way so the um um close friends business partners brian and druva yeah at uh oh yeah they had latch which moth spacked and then um uh at one point it was trading for less than their balance sheet you know so but there was no interest everyone everyone was doomer on it um he also instituted the first installment payment program for premiums this allowed farmers uh to pay their premiums when they received payments for crops so he's like financializing things figuring out it's like buy now this guy this guy is the epitome of of of excellent capitalism built as a super massive impactful company, but clearly at every point was trying to find these win, win, wins for the company, the team, the policy holders, the customers, and ultimately people out on the roads, right?

25:49With that auto policy. There's a, there's a good quote in here. So eventually his company became the largest property and casualty insurer in the United States and one of the 20 largest corporations in the Fortune 500. What a badass. Let me pull this up, George. So he had this great quote. They asked him, like, you know, what is your secret to success? And he says, you know, hard work is important, but he put it this way. He says, a man has to live and sleep with his business if he wants to make a go of it you have to take it home with you at night so you can lie there in the darkness and figure out what you can do to improve it that's amazing isn't that so true so real it's so real it's so imagine imagine having to build companies pre-cell phone yeah just think about after like after 6 p.m every night how many messages we send back and forth yeah on a given a night it's probably just like a hundred yeah so from year to year we are learning that service carries with it its own reward and to the extent and manner in which our service is dispensed compensation in every form will flow and so i'm sure he wound up you know fabulously wealthy just through a little bit of a different uh different path than usual uh also interesting is he, there's like this trend that Charlie Munger mentioned, which was like demutualization.

27:26Like a lot of these mutual companies are demutualizing, like breaking and just becoming like default for-profits. And it's interesting because everyone's looking at the open AI for-profit transition is like, it had never been done. It's so crazy. And it's like, I don't know. Like there's a lot of companies that have been through this. It's not that unprecedented. You start a company one way and then you switch it up. It's hard to do it with a guy with the biggest megaphone in the world. He doesn't want you to do it. It's a little rough when you're getting the crying emoji under every time you post.

28:01It's got to be a little rough. Mogged. Mogged. But yeah, and there's a bunch of other stuff about State Farm in here. Now they employ 70 ,000 employees. They have 19 ,000 agents, offices. I'll get into it later why the agent model ends up being, makes insurance pretty hard. Yeah. So$80 billion in revenue,$6 billion in net income, total assets,$300 billion, and total equity,$100 billion. But that total assets is important because when something like the Palisades Fire happens, You need to be able to absorb that. Yeah, I mean, there was a lot of news about State Farm, like, stopping to, like, canceling policies, basically, in the lead up to this.

28:52But, you know, I think, what did Warren Buffett say? They have, like, 40 % of the market or something like that as State Farm, maybe a little bit less. State Farm was especially, I mean, the challenge was that they had 1 ,600 policyholders in the Palisades. Oh, so lots of concentration there. So huge concentration there. I mean, I doubt it was even concentrated for them. It's more so that that 1 ,600 homes is billions of dollars in value. And so I wonder, like, you know, how the – Even I wonder who I really – so the succession, the house in succession that Kendall Roy has posted up in when he's going through his summer arc at one point.

29:34I haven't seen that season. Just watch the first season, I think. Weird, but okay. But anyways,$125 million home. Wow. Obviously takes a special insurance relationship to insure something like that, but burned to the ground. Wow. From a guy who, Teal Fellow, who spec'd his company. Luminar, Austin Russell. Anyway, is there more stuff that we should move on to there? Or should we talk about how insurance underwriting works and how these natural disasters are categorized? Start there and then I'll get into some of the more. Yeah. So I, I've been doing more of a deep dive on this. I listened to an odd lots episode where they talk to the someone who works, who maintains a database of catastrophes and hazards for the government.

30:29So this is Melanie Gall. She's a co-director of the center for emergency management and homeland security at Arizona state university. And I don't think about like wildfires as homeland security, but it makes so much sense. And she manages a database called ShellDist, the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database. So she's not an economist or a policymaker. She's a geographer. And she wants to just collect as much field data with GPS after a massive flood event, put it all into these databases. and then that is used for underwriting and actually calculating like what is the right level of investment.

31:10And so Tracy Alloway on Odd Lots says, I read that the National Climactic Data Center estimates Hurricane Katrina losses at around 125 billion, while Sheldes says around 80 billion. How do we end up with such big discrepancies? And I'm sure we're gonna see this with the Palisades fire. We already are. People with somebody who say 50 billion. There's numbers out there for Katrina that are around 200. Yeah. Yeah. So who knows? And so Melanie says, it can matter when a community needs to justify a mitigation investment and must do a cost-benefit analysis. Different entities measure losses differently, whether it's direct versus indirect or insured versus uninsured.

31:47NOAA's billion-dollar events estimates often exceed ours because they rely heavily on insured losses. That's right. We only look at direct losses. In the Palisades, I think there's$20 billion of insured losses, and then there's a bunch of other losses that just weren't covered for one reason or another. This particular database, Sheldis, is a more conservative approach. If we see competing estimates, we use the lower one to avoid overestimation, which can further understate the real burden. And that's just kind of like by design of this particular database. Obviously, all the insurers know about the different databases and can adjust accordingly.

32:21And so Joe Weisenthal asks, like the big question is, are natural disaster costs going up? Is it really getting worse or is there just more media attention? And Melanie says, yes, it is getting worse. The risk is going up. We see more frequent and more severe events, but it's complicated. Our loss is higher because there are more events or because more people and property are concentrated in risky areas. Maybe society doesn't invest enough in mitigation or our infrastructure isn't resilient enough. It could also be that we have more socially vulnerable populations who struggle to recover. So yeah, if you go and build like the most insane billion dollar mansion out of, you know, birch wood in the most fire prone area, like that's kind of a choice on us.

33:06And it's not necessarily like climate change that's causing that higher loss. It's the choice that we made to build into the wildfire area. And this is a lot of what we're what's happening as Los Angeles expands is that people move deeper and deeper into the woods and into the mountains and all of that is much more well to be clear some of the nicest areas of la are in these canyons and up on hills and it's uh the places that are some of the most desirable places are you know dhhs like malibu lookout right yeah yeah so uh tracy asks if a hurricane hits florida how does a typical homeowner expect to be reimbursed my understanding is that there are many layers, private insurers, federal support, and reinsurers behind them.

33:51And Melanie says it's complex and varies by state. In Florida, you'd usually have homeowners insurance, flood insurance from the state, from the federal government, though purchased through local agents. So you actually go to your local agent and they act like a normal insurance agent, but they're just selling you a federally backed policy. And sometimes you might have separate wind insurance in Florida. Different policies might kick in depending on whether damage is classified as wind or flood. After Katrina, some neighbors saw their wind policies pay out while others were told it was flood damage, which wasn't covered.

34:25It's not straightforward. And so the big question is why are insurance rates skyrocketing now? Florida homeowners insurance premiums rose 42%. Why are companies leaving instead of just charging more? So insurance companies explain that they face higher risk wildfires in California. hurricanes in Florida, plus higher building costs and higher premiums for their reinsurance. So there's basically two big reinsurance companies, Swiss Re, and I forget the other one, but they wind up insuring. And to define it, reinsurance is insurance that insurance companies have to get. So you got insurance. What's that exhibit meme that's like a 20-year-old meme at this point it's like i got insurance for my insurance for my insurance basically um and so what's what's interesting about california is that uh legally the insurance companies were never allowed to pass on the reassurance reinsurance costs to the end customer yep and so they um and and again like you know nobody really likes their insurance company every time they have to interact with an insurance company the nps score actually goes down because you always are going to be like somewhat disappoint.

35:37You just had this loss and then you're dealing with this company that that's trying to, there's sort of this misaligned incentive and that the insurance company basically wants to give you the lowest amount of money possible to not really piss you off as a customer. Right. But the more money they give you as a payout, the less profits that they have. Right. So it's this delicate balance. And that means that pricing is, is the number one thing in insurance. And if you misprice these things, it ends up. But the thing in California that is fascinating is everybody's like, oh, all the insurance are pulling out of California because of the wildfire risk.

36:15The reason that they were actually pulling out is that there was structurally a number of laws in place. One couldn't pass on reinsurance costs. There was measures to prevent the rate at which you could increase the cost. And so if inflation over the last few years has been insane so if you can't accelerate insurance to to keep up for that to keep up with that like you're going to have a tough time one thing that was interesting as of last year um i got this on odd lots as well policies in california were only 30 higher than the national average home insurance policies in florida they're two thousand dollars higher yeah so florida the florida market's like really much more efficient and sort of caught up and said this is a high area we need a price this this higher um but uh statistically the the cal the insurance providers in california have and and analysts have said that insurance providers are six they basically need to catch up like they're 60 behind on pricing so everyone knew that california home insurance rates even though they're already expensive were too cheap and the regulators had introduced something called prop 23 a long long time ago that that that um did not allow the insurance providers to use catastrophe modeling and climate science to set premiums yeah so it's basically so our california lawmakers were saying hey uh we just don't want you to charge a lot for insurance so what we're going to do is say you can only set your insurance premiums based on how much you paid out over the last 20 years.

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37:57And that works when the future looks exactly like the past. But in a scenario where maybe the government is under investing in wildfire mitigation, maybe we've had more wind the last 10 years than we've had for the past 50 years on average. And so these insurance companies pulled out because the government literally was not allowing them to raise rates to a level that they were comfortable with. And going back to an earlier point, insurance is all about, you know, accurately pricing risk, right? And finding that middle ground so the insurance company can make money so that they deserve to exist.

38:35And the consumer can, and the consumer can, you know, get sort of payouts as needed. Yeah, they've been kind of getting squeezed on both sides, because it's not just that the risk of the houses getting destroyed or burned down is going up, but also because of inflation in both raw materials and labor, the actual cost to rebuild is increasing. And so if you just see the price of wood double, you need a high, like you, it's more expensive. Your insurance should be more expensive. Yeah. And so one of the other interesting things is there's this dynamic in the insurance market where, uh, the, the, the, there's a first mover disadvantage.

39:16So if you're the first uh home insurance provider to increase your rates well i don't care who insures my home as long as i believe they'll be able to pay out in a disaster or some type of adverse situation and so if i'm with all state and then state farm you know if i'm if i'm with all state and and whenever my term is coming up i think they're annually typically and they go okay we're raising you know 20 and then state farm is saying well like we'll give you this rate you'll just switch because it doesn't, you don't really, it's not like top, it's not even like, like picking furniture in your house, furniture, you have to live with every single day insurance.

39:52You don't have to think about unless there's an issue. And so because the contracts are not, you know, very long, switching costs is low and everybody works with agents. The agents will just be like, oh, you don't, you're not happy with this new price. I'll give you this new price. And so there's this weird dynamic where nobody really wants to raise rates, but you have to. And so what that led to is saying hey if we raise rates the way that we need to we're going to lose we won legally can't if we could we lose a lot of our customers so we're just going to pull out entirely and for state farm it was obviously the right decision and now we're in the situation part of the crisis is that there's just this um there's not a there's not enough people insuring homes in this area of southern california right when i ran this process last year i was only able to get to the fair plan, which was a state provide state, uh, California state program.

40:45That's a insurer of last resort and some random other group that I ended up going with. Yep. And, um, and so I think it was 20 % of the, um, the worst areas affected by the fires in the last week, 20 % of those homes were on the fair plan. And so that now needs to be figured out. And it's, again, it's state sponsored and theoretically state backstopped. But then it's sort of provided by these private companies. But so we're going to see how that plays out. Yeah, there's an interesting discussion in here about how can, like once the insurers actually pull out and say it's just not economical for us to participate in this market, how can states get insurers back?

41:31And there's this interesting example because you don't think of California falling behind Louisiana, but Louisiana gets cited often for good policy choices. Here's the example. The state helps cover certain levels of risk, and they have an insurer of last resort called citizens. Unlike Florida, Louisiana citizens must offer premiums slightly higher than the private market, so it doesn't undercut private insurers. Yeah, because it's this weird dynamic where you're like, wait, is the state competing with us? Exactly. The state doesn't want to compete because they don't want to really be in insurance.

42:06Yep. And so here's the crazy thing. So the California insurance commissioner is this guy, Ricardo Lara. And his task, his primary task has been how do we win back home insurance? You know, how do we provide us to California? And so he actually released a new regulation in December of 2024. You can find all of these wires that were going out in mid-December and literally on December 31st, about a week before the fire started. And he was creating, you know, this new regulation would allow insurance providers to use catastrophe modeling and climate science to set premium prices. and the timing of this is just devastating because uh you know he he basically you know he probably that probably would have needed to happen like a year ago for the changes to go into effect for people to get proper insurance but there was basically a weak gap between that new regulation and the fires hitting so just not enough time to respond um i have a bit more on um how So, you know, one thing, the other pressure on insurance providers over the last over the last few years and and basically.

43:27They were talking about this on odd lots, but but basically insurance is finance, but it's like the least sexy part of finance. Right. Like nobody's like, I want to go into finance. Everybody's like, I want to be. No thanks. Goldman Sachs. size lord i'd rather sell you know insurance or i'd rather work for one of these big um insurance brokers or or you know um providers and uh one of the challenges from the last few years is uh as we there's been two factors so um there's been a capital supply shock which is interest rates have gone up and so these mutuals and uh insurance providers they they carry they hold a lot of bonds on their balance sheet.

44:12And so as interest rates have gone up, the value of those bonds have gone down. Second is anybody that is financing these insurance companies is effectively getting paid for taking on climate risk, which is appealing when rates are near zero or 2 % or whatever. But then because climate risk is not associated with, you know, it's disconnected from the Fed. But as rates have shot up, everybody's like, well, if my risk-free rate is five and a half percent, why do I want to take on all this climate risk in a time when climate catastrophes have been accelerating, when it just starts to not make sense?

44:54And so people will just look for other places to park their cash. Yeah. I thought this other piece in The New Yorker breaking down hurricane milton was pretty instructive in terms of what we could see going forward so for those who don't remember um milton came in the in the wake of helene this was back in october of 2024 we saw some crazy wi-fi money kids setting up star links to continue sports betting no not even just sports betting selling courses on how to sports bet courses using the hurricane to sell courses on sports betting. Yeah, he's like, I don't have power. I don't have internet. Definitely a hustler.

45:34But I'm committed to the hustle. But after the disaster in Florida, Joe Biden toured the damage and the unofficial death toll rose to more than 20 and more than a million Floridians were reported to be without power, impacted by the storm, although major was less severe than some forecasters had feared. But with Milton coming in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which had devastated parts of Florida, North Carolina and other states, the 2024 hurricane season represents a threshold crossing of sorts it became this massive political issue trump said kamala spent all her fema money billions of dollars on housing for illegal immigrants and yeah that's another crazy stat by the way i've been asking people so so we spent three billion dollars on wildfire prevention last year how much in california how much do you think we spent on benefits for illegal immigrants oh yeah it's like 50 right 30 30 billion so we spent we spent 10 times as much on benefits for illegal immigrants as we spent on protecting uh you know citizens from and taxpayers from wildfire so yeah seems like that that could uh shift and uh hilariously in the new yorker they reference marjorie taylor green saying yes they can control the weather and this became i think she was quote tweeting augustus i think this is like a whole augustus arc uh because there was uh there was a whole like this it's pretty it's pretty cool that anytime somebody talks about the weather they have to quote tweet augustus now he basically runs the weather yeah yeah anytime it rains or doesn't rain you have to talk to augustus um but it became a massive culture war issue uh a lot of republicans were saying like the democrats planned the hurricane um but then afterwards it was all about um the disaster relief fund And although, you know, there's like a question about like the FEMA money technically is a different account than the housing for illegal immigrants money.

47:30But the disaster fund was empty. And so Congress needed to replenish it. And the government was like out of session. And so House Speaker Mike Johnson had to bring the Congress back into session. and that was kind of like slowing down the topping up of that fund. But again, it's just like, there's just more and more pots of money that just go in. And once they go in, how much of it actually goes to helping people? In the degraded political environment, making sure that FEMA has adequate funding and that effective policies are in place is far from a trivial matter. Definitely agree with that. And there's some interesting context on what's happening in the insurance market broadly as major insurers pull back from areas of high risk of any climate disaster in states like Florida, California, and Colorado, finding affordable home insurance policies is becoming more difficult in many other areas.

48:27Two, according to the Consumer Federation of America, from 2017 to 2022, just five years, average premiums rose about 40 % faster than inflation. Not even inflation adjusted, still 40%. And government figures show they've continued to rise rapidly since then with effects of climate change intensifying the risks of an insurance problems associated with them are no longer just coastal they affect everyone yeah part of it there was i saw something about how in tampa insurance rates were steadily going up like 10 a year and everybody's freaking out right because they're like what are these insurance companies are gouging us simultaneously property values were also doing almost exactly the same thing so So it's not like the whole, as an entrepreneur, anytime I get to know insurance businesses, obviously Warren Buffett and people have done very well in insurance.

49:25But when you study these businesses, you're not thinking to yourself, I'd like to get into the insurance business, right? Because there's been periods where an insurance company has done billions of dollars in profit and then over a decade and then had it all nuked in one event. There's some good quotes in here from CEOs of big insurance companies. John Neal, the CEO of Lloyd's of London says, you'll never find an insurer saying, I don't believe in climate change. The frequency and severity of weather-related losses are exponential. And then Eric Anderson, the president of Aon, the world's largest reinsurance intermediary said, just as the US economy was overexposed to mortgage risk in 2008, the economy today is overexposed to climate risk.

50:09Wow. And so it's one of those things where it's like, when, when, when that was this, uh, this was, uh, last year. So 2023 before this. And, uh, it's, yeah, it's interesting because like, there's a lot of debate over like, you know, is climate change real? How bad is it? Where did it come from? And then what do we do about it? And a lot of smart people will tell you, oh, it's real, but it's not. It's slower than everybody talks about because we have been told over decades, oh, like the sea level is going to take over. It's been very like AI Doomer, like fast takeoff, like, you know, like Greta Thunberg.

50:46But yeah, it's like we're all dead in 2018. Slow and then all at once. Yeah, yeah. You know, the LA fires. Exactly. And so, yeah, very, very, very interesting that like it kind of doesn't matter what you think about climate change. It's like you can see it in the market. You can just look at the reinsurance market and understand that like clearly the market is pricing significant climate change disasters. And so we have to do something about that, whether that's building or planning. Yeah, it's interesting that the difference of you look at fires. Yeah. fires and hurricanes get the most attention yep um earthquakes are very damaging but seem to be you know we've built buildings in a way now that seemingly are you know they're sturdier there's less yeah whatever we're seemingly better prepared for them uh yeah knock on mahogany um but uh but hurricanes are not very preventable right they sort of emerge and they have a path and you hope you're not in the path and batten down the hatches but it's going to be nasty kind of thing yeah and then fires are sort of different dynamic and why this has become so politicized which we won't cover any of the political elements of the fires because we don't discuss politics um even though i did think it was funny that that crooked newsom went on crooked media during uh he went on pod save america like during the fires to like try to set his record straight um but uh we don't discuss politics but um uh it is it is the the reason that there's so much anger in la right now is there's there's a bunch of evidence that we could have done more we could have spent more we could have you know this 17 million dollar budget cut that turned into 200 billion dollars of damages seems a bit silly in hindsight the fire chief had been on record saying we need 50 more stations in la county like all this stuff that's just super damning like we you know our you know government did not take this seriously enough and there's again these communist policies around price controls of people in sacramento telling insurance companies you can't you can't use climate like the same people that are saying like you know don't use water because of climate change or telling the insurance companies you can't use climate science to set yeah pricing for your insurance yeah it's become this classic battle of like like if if you say if two people are talking about what to do about climate change like the the left wing might say we need to curb consumption and the right wing might say we need to do nuclear and more forest fire prevention and fortify our homes against hurricanes and be proactive and and then that gets shouted down it's like you don't believe in it yeah and that's very problematic because it's like there are plenty of things that we can do that actually result in more energy production and consumption but still alleviate climate one thing's for sure living in these areas is just going to continue to get more expensive yep and one interesting anecdotal bit uh a family friend's house burned down in the wolsey fires in 2018 which the wolsey fires uh was the same fire that took took out my house before i owned it um uh so they did five billion dollars worth of damages and when after the dust settled he went to rebuild his house and he couldn't get even though he had this insurance payout he couldn't get a construction loan to build a place because it was all the quotes he was getting were for 60k a year and this is for like a tiny like three-bedroom home in the mountains of santa monica and he's like well i'm not going to pay 60 grand he's you know in his 60s he's like i'm not going to pay 60 grand a year for the rest of my life to live in like a three-bedroom house not including property taxes not including any other like it just financially wasn't and so what he ended up doing is he has like basically like nice rvs set up on the property that he still like uses but he cannot build structures because he can't get the insurance too yep and maybe that will change with some of this just because again if we were doing you know it's it's interesting i have i pitched brother Justin Mares on this idea back in Q4 saying how can we apply drone technology for wildfire detection and you know real-time mitigation and then also around home defense right because one of the challenges is when people one already insurance providers will give you a lower rate if you have like fire sprinklers they'll give you a lower rate if you have like a newer roof that has is more fire protected they'll give you a lower rate if your like house is constructed in a specific way and but one of the challenges is when everybody evacuates and then an ember falls like in your backyard like let's say it lands in the wrong spot and it starts this little fire and you're not there and so i was thinking you could apply have a drone basically stationed on your roof that would just use would patrol your you know effectively your house while you were away and so i think i do think there's a mix of high level my contractor showed me a house that he built where it's just it's just a sprinkle around the earth that's it it just spits out a ton of water everywhere if you turn it on yeah yeah it's like low tech and so yeah there's a guy showing uh images from japan there's like some crazy automated turret that comes out if they have yeah yeah and it goes back to like there are two ways to deal with climate change one is don't build the house in the first place live in the cave and live in squalor and the other way is build the firefighting technology and and clear the fields and build robots to clear fields and send up the goats and do the controlled burns and do all this stuff and that's the more techno optimist pro acceleration like path that i want to take and uh the uh the new yorker and the insurance, reinsurance brokers in Switzerland and Germany agree with me.

57:03They say one thing that virtually all sides agree on from the senior brass at Swiss Re and Munich Re on down is the importance of investing more resources towards adapting our natural and human environments, including homes and other structures to make them more resilient to climate change. That's easy to say, affecting real change would involve making big decisions at different levels of government about contentious issues, including public spending, zoning, building codes, and taxation. Heller conceded that getting consensus for reform is a formidable task and noted that the economic fallout from climate change is affecting districts regardless of their political affiliation.

57:45And that's like super true here because you have the Palisades and Altadena, probably very different political alignments and kind of just average net worth. But there should be both aligned. The hope is that they all get aligned around, let's be more proactive. Let's do more positive stuff. Let's build as opposed to let's cut back and let's restrict, which is rough. Anyway, I think that wraps up our deep dive for today. A lot of rough stuff out there, but tragic. Pretty interesting to dig into. Hopefully we're learning some things. Let's go to some DMs. I got a good DM from Frank. He said he recommends a new segment on the show called Forward Deployed Technology Brother of the Week.

58:23He's recommending picture submissions from brothers in the field, test sites, on the road, offshore, etc. Scenery aesthetics, grit and grind, sunsets, sunrise, coffee and nicotine, not group photos. Would be a goldmine for the Gundo guys. More American terrain on the timeline, not less. More redacted desert locations, not less. segment sponsored by ramp for enabling travel and logistics or palantir who has popularized who has popularized the forward deployed phraseology creative liberties loose interpretations of forward deployed could basically mean anything off-site like zuck venturing into texas for jre i love this i love this great idea frank recommendations if you want to be featured as a forward deployed technology brother of the week and we'll just put it out there right now Until further notice, every time you tag, say I'm forward deployed and tag us, we will feature it on the show.

59:18Yep. We have a request from Brandon Jacoby, who's been featured on the show under some personalities. Brandon Jacoby. Hopefully I can share this. Apparently he's now the only designer employed at X. One designer at X. If you have any issues with X at all, DM Brandon. He's the only one. Tell him the technology brother sent you. He was just texting me like two minutes ago. So that's good. Yeah. Just flood his DMs like hundreds of messages. If we flood his DMs enough, the DMs product will get better. You know, I think I actually, I don't know if it was him or Yaxin, but I actually DM someone that there was this weird feature when you, when you press and hold on a video, it speeds it up to 2X, which is a great feature.

1:00:06but for a while it would put this big 2x icon like right in the middle of the video and i was like i don't need to know that a and b like just throw that in the corner up at the top and i sent it in and then i was like ah these and one of the guys was like yeah i'll fix it today and i was like cool you move so fast and then a couple days later it was still up and i was like nah they were probably just like messing with me uh but then it did get fixed and so i love it so yeah uh you can you can you can affect real change but the reason brand jacoby is asking us to react to this picture that Sarah Hess posted is that she posted a picture of a watch and says when the SpaceX secondary finally hits.

1:00:44And it's a Audemars Piguet Royal Oak chronograph. Beautiful piece. I can't really tell. It's black and white. I don't know. Beautiful looking watch. The thing Sarah just bogs the entire deep tech community. The other day she was posting a... What was that? the other day she was posting her and i think a g-wagon six oh yeah the six by six being like this is a good daily defense tech so all you guys out there need to get on sarah's level that caused a little bit of a stir a lot a lot of defense tech bros were like no it's the high yeah yeah the raptor the raptor yeah but you know you can't go wrong with the six by six i think i think the cool thing is if you're in defense tech manufacturing or whatever and you're just on the road you're a forward deployed technology brother yeah it's just so there's your you find yourself in such fantastical situations that it doesn't matter what you're driving and it's still cool exactly you could have warren buffett's old camry and you have it's just covered in dust and sand and you know it's got like a bunch of uh lucy cans in the back it just looks cool yeah if you're in a six by six great the real question is would augustus dorico have gotten stuck in the mud if he was driving the six by six no absolutely i don't think so i don't think so and also it's six wheel drive rainmakers should have a tank like they've raised enough capital at this point they should have a tank yeah launches drones out of it and has the threads but anyways uh all you technology brothers out there stop getting mogged by sarah step it up she's posting the proof daily on the timeline let's go to civilization enjoy or another question for us says i love you tech bros pod thank you we love you too civilization civilization love civilization um can you recommend a time piece for me in my budget range and there's some sort of like foreign symbol here i don't know what that means but uh it says 56.34 is this european money i think it's european money and so in european the europeans they use periods instead of commas right anytime time i go to europe i just use dollars the whole time they're just so liquid i just deal with it it's so is this 56 ,340 dollars yeah because at that i mean you could get the royal chronograph probably that's around 50k right yeah let me check you're not going to be in nautilus territory uh i mean you're close you could get a you could get a vacheron overseas you could get a daytona probably yeah easily a daytona the other option the other option here with a with a budget like that is is you could have you know your father grandfather you know some family member give give you a watch you know as like a family heirloom and then use your budget on getting it tuned up a little bit taking it to somebody to get it serviced and then buy like half a bitcoin with the other that'd be good 50 grand so yeah um but on the off chance that he's saying 56 dollars and 34 cents what what would you recommend that i think you got to go used casio or g-shock something on ebay something that's uh respectable to the watch guys maybe something you know a navy seal an operator has used and is all banged up something like that buy jocko willink's old cracked g-shock that's something you can get for 50 bucks he might just send it to you for free i mean you're in territory where you might just want to do a little bit of e-begging and just and just beg for someone to send you an old watch yeah yeah yeah but something with a story i'm sure anybody anybody anybody out there that's listening if you have an old cool watch gathering dust please give it to civilization enjoy we're happy to help intermediate it yeah we'd love to get him a watch yeah first of many yeah get him started uh i mean i it's already a bad sign that he's dealing with the That's rough.

1:04:38Anyway, let's go to Miles. It's funny to be saying you enjoy civilization from Europe. Yeah. Considering that they've been sliding backwards. Miles Snyder asks us, I feel like these$4 ,500 Rick Rubin approved headphones are the perfect podcasting accessory for a self-respecting technology brother. It's the LCD-5 flagship headphones. Highly recommend going and picking these up. I think they're open back. Have you seen that? So they're actually loud to other people. You know about this? that's open back headphones yeah they they they play the music it creates this real sound stage so you can hear the music all over the place but they they don't isolate it to the outside work so other you're just mogging everyone else with noisy headphones last night i was fucking with sarah and i uh i usually will listen to like an audiobook or video whatever going to bed without the screen off and i took my headphones and i just threw them over my like towards her side of the bed and i just started putting on like this like educational like kids kids song she just like took her like 10 seconds she's like what the fuck are you watching i was watching like i'd watched a video with roman on on how oil rigs work nice i didn't know this but a lot of them are actually pontoon boats oh yeah where they are sunken yeah underneath the water you should do deep dive on oil rigs hyundai heavy industries i believe that's one of them that makes it uh make the the uh electric cars and oil rigs uh grant says getting bucket pulled on tech bros pod is the teapot equivalent of getting bucket pulled on kill tony salute that's correct we were inspired by kill tony uh we we've been doing a lot of uh post reactions and we wanted to mix it up make sure that we got to the real bangers from the brothers from the friends of the show the really key stories, but we wanted to mix in some random stuff.

1:06:33So we printed a bunch more posts through them in this bucket. We're really building up a thing. And these are random. We have such a backlog. We might have to move to two episodes a day. We have to, if we want to get through these. And so we'll do some bucket pulls later in the show, a little bit more random, some friends, some randoms in here, a lot of timeless stuff and and a little bit more focused just on good text posts, not something that we need to necessarily make sure we're hitting in a timely fashion, but it's more of just a random way to make sure anyone has a chance to get on the show.

1:07:09Let's go to a question that I got from a friend. Says, pod is crushing, by the way. Also, question, do you think it's a good idea to work for Doge? Hmm, well, what do you want? And I answered and we chatted for a little bit. I said, well, what do you want out of life? What's your long-term goal? And so the question is like, this guy has been working in tech. He's been an associate at a venture capital firm, worked at a kind of series A, series B startup that was kind of pre-product market fit, done some stuff, product manager style. And he's now thinking about joining Doge. What do you think? So there's a range of ways that you can work on Doge.

1:07:48I don't know how much of it's public or private yet, but uh at a high level you can go and actually have a long-term like role within a job a job like a long-term job and then there's also these sort of rotating groups that are rotating in for yep 90 day sprints to work on specific higher math did yeah and so so i it's hard to know i think um i think he's thinking full-time like this will be the next couple years yeah i think doge is an incredible opportunity if you don't have your thing yet yeah right or if you're working a job that you just don't care about that much which i doubt any of the brothers do because they are uh corporate athletes and they'll find a way to care about anything but um uh yeah just i i think it's honestly the 90 day route and taking a sabbatical from your job and doing that is cool the like long term you know in it there's actually a recent study on our audience and they found that we have the highest percentage of listeners who are doing their life's work of any podcast in the world i thought it was exciting so um yeah yeah the the i my thought for him was like you should think about what your life's goal is um because if you're going into the government that can be a great track for the right type of person um and but if you stay in finance that can be the right track for a different type of person starting a company and and building it i almost It's like the Doge, as great as it is, there's all these technology entrepreneurs and people within tech that are going and joining Doge.

1:09:28We also need people that have histories in Washington to join because they actually understand how Washington works and how government works. Complicated stuff, you know, not for the faint of heart. So I hope that we're pulling in people from Washington to participate in this because I think they'll be much stronger if they're like collaborating. Yeah. I imagine the correct formulation is like a blend like what happened with Anderle where it was like three Palantir guys, Palmer Lucky who had no experience in defense but is like this crazy engineer. And then Chris Brose joins who's been McCain's chief of staff and like the swampiest dude in the world.

1:10:08I say that lovely. Swamp life? But it really is important that they have someone like that who's been on the Hill for so long. Really, really add to the information. Okay, let's see. Okay, we got all these. We're good. I got a promoted post. So today, this promoted post is from the Department of State and the DEA, actually, the Drug Enforcement Agency and the U.S. Department of Justice. So we actually today we have a promoted post from the feds from the narcotics rewards program saying that they have the reward for information leading to the arrest and or conviction of Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela has increased up to twenty five million.

1:10:55So this is like, you know, typical. This is like basically like getting a pre-seed round for like an AI company. Mango seed. It's like a mango seed for your AI company. or like if you're a good YC company, you might come out of Demo Day, skip the seed round and go straight to the 25 on 100. But anyways, this would go straight into your pocket. So Nicholas has been... Nick has had some issues with narco-terrorism.

1:11:31He had a run-in with the feds. He's in a rough go.

1:11:39he's accused of narco-terrorism yeah okay he hasn't innocent until proven guilty yeah allegedly allegedly nick has done some narco-terrorism narco-terrorism cocaine importation conspiracy to use and carry machine guns and destructive divisives devices and furtherance of a drug crime so anyways no coupon code this time but you can send tips to the drug enforcement agency by email at cartel s-o-l-e-s tips at d-a.com and uh and for the for the folks who might be trying to track him down can you give me some overview of who nicholas maduro is and what he might look like if i see him on the street nicholas maduro moros is a venezuelan politician who has served as president of venezuela since 2013 he began his working life as a bus driver He's clearly got vision, even though he may have had some issues with the law.

1:12:33Maduro rose to become a trade union leader. Ouch. That was his first problem, clearly, before being elected to the National Assembly in 2000. He's got a wife that he married in 2013, Celia Flores. If you know Celia, you could ask her. He's 6 '3", Chad. Okay. I like that. And, yeah, basically. How old is he? 63? 62 years old normally i guess he hangs out in caracas okay venezuela so anyways just a great opportunity i i don't think enough passport bro passport bros will often talk about oh i have this e-commerce business or i have this course business i think there's a big opportunity to just like start contracting with the dea going after some of these bounties and this 25 million could fund quite a long stint in South America if that's what you want in life so go get after it yeah and if you're if you're more of like a course bro which I don't think a lot of our listeners are you could create courses on how to go after DEA bounties and how you could track down a narco terrorist like a lot of great a lot of opportunity these days so anyways we'd love to check it out We'll try to promote as many of these on the show as possible.

1:13:49And if you do, tell the DEA, Technology Brothers, tell them you heard about the opportunity on the pod. That's really key. We don't need any of the payout. We just want a little credit. We want the credit. Okay, this is great. Back to the show. So back to the show. Max Passion and Fury at Passion and Fury. Go give them a follow. Oh, by the way, thank you to the Lone Ranger for putting this on our roadmap. I didn't know the increase. It's a lot of money. Yeah. So Max, listener of the pod, says, new technology for the Technology Brothers. He built a tool to quickly grab all clips referencing every mentioned X post on the pod.

1:14:36All you need is a YouTube URL. At Jordy Hayes, at Jock Coogan. Would this be helpful? You just said Jock Coogan. Jocko Coogan. That's my goal is to just become the Jocko Willink of tech. And it's amazing. You dump in one of our show URLs and it immediately slices it up. This is amazing. He built this as a live product. It's techbrosclips.com. And you can punch in. Oh, if everyone goes there, it's going to blow up the site probably. Well, it'll be a good test. But, yeah, get a content delivery network up, buddy, because the traffic's coming. It's been super helpful to us already. Slices everything up.

1:15:16We're working on a slight iteration, but I think this should really speed up the flow of the show so that as soon as we wrap, boom, we put it in there. The editors can punch some of this stuff up and it can go out on X, which has been a huge, huge growth hack for us. And if we catch you stealing our growth hack, you're going to hear from us. Let's go to Megan Neivold. She says, yeah, I'll be going now and takes a picture of her purse where she has put a piece of fried chicken in there. And what's that? A beautiful tin of Lucy Pouches in her purse. I love it. Megan also mogs the timeline. Totally.

1:15:50Mogs a lot of the other brothers with just like constantly living that sort of loud, opulent. Loud, opulence. TB lifestyle. The Corona, the Aquapana, the French fry boat. Probably truffle fries. Fantastic lifestyle. It's great. Yep. Enjoy. Go, Megan. thanks for supporting my company thanks for supporting the pro nicotine pouch community and uh helping evangelize thank you for supporting iq yes yes uh should we do a bucket poll we've been we've been talking it up maybe we do a bucket poll let's see okay this one's gonna be truly random this time because we have two champagne buckets by the way because the next dom episode we might have to just throw the dom in with the buckets i can't believe i pulled this one oh my god okay tokyo sunbather says carl marx failed to consider how dripped out i look walking out of the polo ralph lorenz store there is a man riding a horse on top of my chest you communist retard well we don't use the r word on this show but because it's low class and vulgar but i'm quoting him so yeah that is an acceptable but carl mark uses pejorative if if ever we were to use that word it would be in reference following the communism but that is a hilarious post yeah i probably read that a few times really really enjoyed it yeah that's that's that's non even ironically why capitalism is so great yeah because you can get dripped out yeah which is exceedingly So back in the Soviet Union, if you were, yeah, jeans were a big thing.

1:17:29If you traveled through the Soviet Union wearing jeans, people would come up to you relentlessly making you offers and they wouldn't even have anything to offer in the trade. They'd be like, hey, I have this like exotic melon that I grew in my backyard. I'll give you three of them if you give me your jeans. And you're like, I'll keep my jeans.

1:17:51Wild. Great post. great post hilarious uh let's go to jason lou he says do it scared i believe many people struggle with the insecurity of being intelligent they often feel the need to prove their intelligence by overthinking excessively planning and acquiring knowledge before taking action however this approach is a waste of time the more you research the more you realize how how little you actually know instead you just have to do it even if you're scared literature is the most agreeable way of ignoring life yeah there's a lot of that like hustle porn like i need more mental models i need more frameworks before i go and build the thing and nine times out of ten it's just like just go give a shot and this is like the whole yc thing is like you show up it's like demo days ticking clock 90 days you got to put something on stage got to grow got to build the business like if you go into uh office hours and you're like i'm thinking about a frame it'll be like shut up like go code yeah what meeting structure should i use yeah all that stuff doesn't matter yeah the other thing will will was posting recently about how if you are gonna read a ton of books instead of doing the actual thing which at points in your life is worth doing uh don't read the same books as everyone else so don't read the same yep you know one don't read founder biographies just listen to founders podcast yeah two don't read the same like businessy self-help books go weird go read weird strange stuff like from the crazy the biggest bull signal is when you're searching someone on a wikipedia page you go to the sources it's some isbn number you go to amazon two thousand dollar book won't ship to you in a month because it's out of stock you got to find some library that has it in stock not digitized there's no kindle version there's no audiobook version that's what the alpha is do you know you know that book there there's no anti-memetics yeah yeah it's like trading at like three thousand yeah i have i have a copy yeah and it's like yeah they went out of print it's literally mooned yeah hilarious nobody knows what the book's even about but library cards deeply underrated yeah uh when when ben and i were doing uh some video essays i would we would just go over to the library and just pick up like every book on whatever topic it was like i was doing something on uh gta and the history of grand theft auto and there's like one really good book that serves as like the backbone of the story but there are like 20 other books that like have paragraphs mentioning it or talk about the development of the industry and you can talk to a librarian all together yeah and yeah i'll help you find all that i mean even just walking around in the library you'll find like there's like the trump section we got 20 books about the history of donald trump and 20 books about the history of joe biden when we were doing those video essays about this it's really really cool and so yeah you want to learn about insurance like you can go on twitter and listen to podcasts and but just like it's called like i i I think of it like the shotgun method.

1:20:41Like when I'm trying to learn something new, it's like I'll find like, you know, a textbook on it, but then also a biography of someone who built something in there, listen to a podcast on it. What does OddLots say about it? Read a wiki, go to Hacker News, search Twitter, and then also just stroll the library until you've kind of like sprayed and prayed all over the place and just gotten a bunch of different information that you can put together. Because like that's probably not baked into the LLMs yet. So you need like random sources to put together. Then you get the alpha. Let's go to Hunter Gronk Wiz.

1:21:13Love the name. He says, just spent$60 ,000 buying a Stripe car. Women won't leave me alone now. Best investment I've ever made. And Jacob Martin asks us and asks, at TechRosePod, found someone almost as committed to Stripe as you guys are to ramp. Do you think this is real? Do you think he actually bought the car? It looks just like a taxi cab. I think he's joking. He's joking, but I wish he wasn't. The Stripe car. Dripped. Very drippy. It says. Very drippy. It says a lot about the kind of person you are. It says you value literature, independent publishing, smooth stats. Irish nationalism. Irish nationalism.

1:21:49Mafia. Easy incorporation tools like Stripe Atlas. It says a lot with a little. It says a lot more than like a martini racing Porsche. And I'm a huge Porsche fan. The livery. The Stripe livery goes hard. I would just like to see it on something with a little more horsepower. A couple more cylinders. get the stripe delivery on a v10 next yeah yeah i'd like to see somebody apply the stripe livery on you know what you know what it should be going on bmw i8 most undervalued car right now 40k here you have doors that go like this it's not under i just will say it's not undervalued it's undervalued it's properly valued undervalued i know i know it's not a great driver's car i'm properly value because it's worth 40k today and it'll be worth 20k no no it is undervalued because once associates at vc firms realize that they can have doors that go like this for the price of a model three it's over it's over get that wrap it in the american flag oh you're on the american dynamism team get an i8 wrap it in the american flag oh you're working at stripe i8 wrap it in the stripe logo that car really half of them have already been wrapped eight years ago eight years ago i guess i hadn't moved to la yeah isn't it a three-cylinder it it was very hot oh yeah second it was like a very cool car it looks cool and it's from a big brand yeah it drives like trash but that doesn't matter it has doors that go like this jordy the doors doors they go up the doors go up i do i do want to go i want to go to the bmw uh driving experience center in palm springs by the way what would you what would you drive there i would what's your what's your what's your I actually like the way that BMWs drive.

1:23:33The modern ones? I would go manual M2. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Powder blue. Yeah, yeah, that's a great option. That's a good one. Still pretty light. But I would like to just go. Not the M5 that weighs 7 ,000 pounds. I would like to get a good remote setup, dash cam. Totally. Starlink, headsets. Totally. And we just re-record the pod just while racing around. Have you ever gotten into the old BMWs, like the E36 M3? No. If you know the numbers that go in front of the M3s, it's stupid. My car Sherpa, Michael, lives here in LA, not far from the studio. He's big into that world, but not me. Let's do Promoted Post.

1:24:13Another bucket pull. Promoted Post. This Promoted Post is from Mahogany. Mahogany is the official wood of business. Fantastic. We just wanted to draw some attention to Mahogany. It's a great wood. They've got great grains. You can get it from all over the world, a bunch of different sort of varietals. And I just can't stress enough. Every business should run on ramp and every business should run on mahogany. Get mahogany around your office, your home. You know, ideally it's in your car in certain places. You're buying the right manufacturers and you're getting them specced out properly. But at the IA, replace all the dash with mahogany.

1:24:56Now we're talking. can see i can win you over on the side panels on the board swap swap an f40 engine in there get the turbocharged v8 and the i8 yeah anyways fantastic wood uh can't recommend it enough and thank you to mahogany for supporting the show one last one i8 storado that slaps yeah you throw some off-road tires on their roof rack the door still go like this door still go up you're good you can't charge the car anywhere so you got to stay close to home but uh you know if you live at a ski resort you don't need to charge it it's not electric it's a hybrid it's not it's not a plug it's not it might be plug-in but it doesn't matter you can just put gas in cool okay i'm i'm you're on board i'm on board we're getting to we're getting an i-8 when i crashing an i-8 was like kind of the it thing to do the supply there's probably only like 40 left yeah they've all been crashed and wrapped by that's actually the first case for i8 yeah is that it's an iconic car it's the halo car from like one of the most iconic brands bmw okay put your money where your mouth pick one up uh this is stupid we already talked about that bucket pull something else brutal bucket pull let's do that uh oh this is good nikita beer he says the three jobs after agi actually one ai researcher two influencer three looter slash prisoner what do you think feels pretty pretty real after this last week yeah not if you listen to tyler cowan on door cash he says it's gonna be very slow for ai to take over some of these more entrenched industries the non-profit people will still have jobs the the farmers and if you talk to uh brad jacobs he when he set up his new fund.

1:26:42He specifically was looking for AI resistant industries. Where'd he land? He landed in construction materials. He's rolling up construction materials companies, making it easy to order construction materials if you're a builder. Obviously great timing and I'm sure there'll be a bunch of interesting stories that come out of that company. His second most interesting choice, he surveyed all the different industries for AI resistance and also just economic opportunity uh the one that he wanted to go with was oil and gas but he couldn't but the esg thing was too overbearing i have a thesis around it used to be young people would see the oil and gas industry as the same level of opportunity as technology and wall street yeah yeah wall street where it's maybe you're in texas yeah well i'm gonna stay close to home and go into oil and gas and for a very long time it just was not even on the radar of a lot of talented young people of going because it was so demonized yeah then it's like okay well we need this stuff for yeah everything so maybe it's not so bad yeah you gotta watch that movie the only thing i would add to nikita's list is guys that repeatedly launch the same app and repeatedly sell it to large corporations because they want your time and attention universal employment for nikita for sure and uh i mean i guess he's influencer on uh what's that intro.com yeah yeah yeah people will pay it just to hang out with yeah even if they're not there's nothing left to build i just want to talk to nikita generally yeah tell me some more stories buddy yeah uh john chiu at coastal ventures says why a 40 million dollar pre-seed you can prove your research direction with 5 million founder uh somit chintala told me vcs are willing to light dollars on fire for my pre-training so i'm not going low lower the spend plan includes his yearly multi-million dollar meta salary in cash we are deaf not in a bubble i didn't really understand the format of this but i do think that uh the whatever the high level 40 million dollar pre-seed for an ai company was cool i just my only problem with it is if you you could raise 15 million dollars spend a little minute little bit of money tracking down nicholas maduro yeah and you could get this 25 million non-dilutive uh basically basically just you know straight cash of the balance sheet and then use this for all your pre-training yeah use this to buy compute yeah spend this on an nvidia and so and and you know i'd like to see this well transfer from the dea yeah to nvidia yeah i wonder what the what the stories are like what is the biggest reward that's ever actually been paid out by the federal government for a bounty like that and who got it what did they do with the money like did it go to like blackwater or did it go to just some random citizen who like called it in i believe I believe that there was a theory that there was a whistleblower in the Osama Bin Laden case that was retconned out and not told in the main story.

1:29:44Have you heard this? The Seymour Hersh theory. Seymour Hersh claims that the Zero Dark Thirty narrative, that it was like the CIA figured out where he was and then they're sending the Blackhawks and they were stealth helicopters and they got through the Iranian defenses, was it? Or Pakistani defenses. um that that is like kind of a story that we tell to sound like a little bit more heroic which based i like it but um the the more the the seymour hirsch theory is that there was actually a whistleblower in the pakistani government who called america and was like i know where he is i've i i ran into bin laden's driver this is the location and it could have been get me out and get me my 10 million dollars for the bounty and i will give you the direct access and then apparently America went to uh went to the Pakistani government said we know where he is we're either sending a missile tonight or you're going to turn off your air defenses and our Black Hawk helicopters are going to fly in and they're like okay fine you got us we've been hiding him like we'll let you go in so it's not like a national incident and then the the narrative globally turned into oh yeah like we snuck in we broke through their air defenses and like they weren't complicit in it So then there's not as much like global, like aggression towards Pakistan because they weren't part of it.

1:31:04Yeah, exactly. Yeah. What were you about to say? Anyways, back to$40 million preseason, um,

1:31:14podcaster moment right there. But, um, do we want to do Zuck? Uh, this one, I feel like it's kind of played out. I mean, we didn't really talk about it yet. I, I, I don't have a lot of, You know the old phrase, if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say it. I'm glad he came around, but I'm not. I haven't listened to the full episode yet, so I'll withhold my take. Let's go to Jasmine's son. She says, ins and outs for 2025. Predictions are not endorsements. And the top one is lifted straight from our show. In ostentatious wealth, out quiet luxury. We have been firmly in favor of that. in open water swimming, out run clubs.

1:31:56I would say we've been in favor of loud opulence, which you can actually enjoy regardless of whatever wealth you have. You can door dash all day long, spend that on a bottle of Dom Perignon and pop it off, you know, to celebrate a hard day's work. So you can, you know, anybody can do it. So in our Mob Wives, Nietzsche, the Western canon, going to the movies, aperitifs and digestifs russia is in and china is out i don't know in 996 out quiet quitting in email romance out dating apps in cocaine out weed in secrets out transparency in fey that would actually be cool a new dating app built around email would be is weird enough that you could probably get a number of of users uh that's actually how tinder started they they would do it all manually so they would have uh it was based on this thing that happened at harvard where at the end of the year everyone would submit names of people that they were like attracted to but never actually had a chance to really go on a date with and then if there was a mutual swipe right essentially both people put down the same name they would make an intro and that was and then they apified never knew that yeah um uh in manning up and moving on out is yearning in ball up top i like that out self-reflection yes in uh travel never reflect never look in the past in sketch comedy out stand-up sets a lot of good stuff in there thanks for posting that i i think that's a fun list uh do you want to do your own post newsom's reign of terror i'll read it okay yeah go go through it i uh you know jeff jeff lewis and and people like uh josh steinman yeah have talked over the last uh basically the last week and saying hey most natural disasters aren't political but it's actually important to make this one political because there were a number of failures by the state to address this problem before it started and it's been interesting to watch gavin newsom the vast majority of the communications that he's been putting out are all centered around correcting his image so this guy i think is one of the most disgusting despicable evil political leaders that I've ever I'd probably rather get a beer with Nicolas Maduro than Gavin Newsom but but anyway so I had to share this I shared this I think on Saturday I was pretty frustrated and it definitely resonated but I said Newsom's reign of terror will finally come to an end in 2026 that's when his term is up hopefully he gets recalled I think there's a bunch of petitions happening now.

1:34:44Years of zero leadership and degeneracy. I put that in there because he has a history of cheating on his wife with his staff, and he also cheated on his wife with his best friend's wife, among other incidents. We now have dramatic visual evidence of his incredible incompetency, and it's on full display for the nation and the world. Very, very, he couldn't have had a more high profile. The Camp Fire, which was one of the most damaging fires, was in an area of the state that frankly does not have a lot of influential people or attention. This one is the crown jewel of California, Los Angeles, and it's just on full display, very clear that the world now knows that he is incompetent.

1:35:30The fires will cost him any hope of winning the presidency, which he so desperately wanted. And you can see with his communication strategy this week, he's entirely fixated on yelling at Elon Musk for spreading lies when he is the biggest liar, the most lying politician that I've ever seen. His track record was always terrible, but his smooth talking kept the dream alive. I will give him credit. He always dresses well and he's good at yapping. Not anymore, as these images will follow the rest of his sad career and be placed next to his name in the history books and this is one of those things i literally think if there's going to be a history book on california on uh this century you'll have the newsom era and the fires these these pictures will be placed next to his name because this is uh his handiwork los angeles will rebuild but newsom won't have anything to do with it so i don't think this guy i don't think this guy will be able to walk around los angeles for the rest of his life without being yelled at, and he deserves it.

1:36:31I mean, like, absolute scum. And I make a... We make a strong effort on the show to never be negative or put people down because everybody's doing their best. But in Newsom's case, his best is not where it needs to be. So please resign, Newsom. So who you got? because Rick Caruso seems like the obvious pick for LA mayor uh who should step in as governor man I I'm not a um my opinions on Newsom have only been from spending my entire life in California and getting to become an adult as his reign of terror um you know was going on and so I'm not a political i don't have a lot of uh i don't follow the the the sort of um people in the stable closely enough i i don't think that caruso after the bass election wanted i i prior to the fires i don't think he would have run the next time he wasn't like now people are like demanding it yeah and and i think caruso's incredible he has the only structures basically in the palisades that are touching each other that are still standing.

1:37:47So if that's not proof that he's competent, I don't know what is, but he's getting up there. I don't know if he wants to do a four-year term, but he would be a good pick. But we just need new leadership across the board. I also had another post. It can't be shared widely enough, but if there's one thing that we'll publicly, you know, sort of state that we do not uh uh support it is um communists karen bass spent the first half of her career literally traveling to cuba when it was illegal to travel to cuba so breaking the law taking multiple trips coordinating with the cuban government to spread communism in the united states she was praised by the biggest newspaper of the communist movement in the 70s as being the leader of the communists and the group that she was involved with it's like a violent extremist group and this woman uh failed upward into congress she was a represent not not uh she was in the house of representatives representing california came back decided to become mayor and even people close to her have said that she had no plan for her you know uh for her rule over Los Angeles she just was the pick that would win was the right person and anyways so and and and Max Meyer posted this video during in in a video on Sunday she was talking about how we're going to rebuild Los Angeles and she was smiling through the whole video it was really weird it's like how do you and and and Lulu was just ripping her apart because there's a science to addressing people in that situation and and just couldn't so like clearly has no business running the city anymore she needs to be recalled to gavin newsom needs to be recalled to my pick and governor dwayne the rock johnson see that's a good option we had a great run with you don't actually yeah yeah we had a great run with la yeah and and bass had no no insights or knowledge of how entertainment works right like she it's like somebody in detroit not understanding manufacturing put the rock in i mean people so he's a tequila entrepreneur yeah he's an entertainment mogul yeah he's the highest paid has a huge neck he's a mass monster mass monster crazy output crazy workouts yeah it's clear that like he understands the the wwe wrestling style of politics to to be able to go up and give a rousing speech when that's needed like if he was called upon i would say a speech after this mel gibson is another front runner for me i i i you saw his you saw his son is a buddy is a buddy of mine a neighbor actually you saw you saw his comment it was like his house burned down and he was like i'm free of my material things like just oh and he's he's actually stoic yeah that's great i've you know i've had a i've met him before at um birthday party and he's he's a uh i think he's a i think he's a good dude with good intentions and And anyway, so I'm like, I'm very much looking forward to not ever having to talk about politics on this podcast again.

1:41:05But let's move on to Tyler. He says a wild conversation with a public company CEO. He says they have a$10 billion plus market cap. And they say our top of funnel is getting completely crushed because we were so reliant on Google. but a ton of people have switched to AI search and we aren't there yet. One anecdote, but wow. I wonder what industry this is because I feel like for a lot of consumer products, the AI search hasn't really taken off and the AI search has mostly been replacing more like informational stuff where you would land on Wikipedia, I go to AI for. But if I'm shopping for like a new suit or something, I'm not gonna go to ChatGPT because it's just going to tell me about the suits generally, and I want to be able to click and buy or something like that.

1:41:54So I wonder what industry that is. This goes, Anne Skates was talking last week about the sort of AI becoming these recommenders and how I think a massive amount of purchasing decisions will be driven by these sort of AI assistants that deeply understand you and your taste and get to disintermediate basically Google Ads and random searches. And this is already happening. So you can, there's something called, you can go on Delphi and like talk to somebody's clone and be like, what magnesium supplement do you recommend? It'll recommend that based on who that clone is made around. There's another company called Dexa that does like an AI chat bot just based on podcast transcripts.

1:42:42You can be like, what is so-and-so think about this? and then it'll recommend the right product seems like yeah good like even more important than ever to switch from seo to influencer marketing because you want to be baked into the llm in a conversational way that's true that's true just like oh keyword search showed up that's interesting i never thought about that i mean um my first company branded native runs hundreds of influencer ads a month for um various consumer brands and that's kind of an interesting thing of like you're building up this basically base of recommendations from all that will get baked in the llms much more so than some optimized seo landing page yeah so if you want to optimize uh your results in llms go to brandednative.com this company i started uh when i was 22 and uh spend a bunch of money through our ad network there we go let's do a promoted post promoted post uh this is a fantastic post I mean, this is our first horse post horse post.

1:43:46And there's been sort of some ideas and thoughts out there that that we don't, you know, we're always, you know, we support horse girls that we like the idea of horse girls. My daughter will be a horse girl and we are horse enthusiasts. Yes. Equestrians. Equestrians. Yeah, exactly. So this promoted post is from our friend Tom Wilson at Tom Wilson Horses. And he says, this is what AA rated 3.2 million yearling looks like. Lot 1007. He's got home affairs crossed with sunlight. And he has an entire video here just breaking down the incredible ergonomics and muscle structure of this fine stallion.

1:44:34He says, the damn Nordic charm, second page, the damn Nordic charm is by Charge Forward, a group one winning sprinter and established Broadmare Sire. Although Nordic charm herself was unraced, she hails from a distinguished family. She is a half sister to Liberator, the champion stayer in Hong Kong for 2011 to 2012, and Pink Cyrus, who produced group two winner Aetna. The family traces back to the illustrious Miss Helga, a listed race winner and producer of quality offspring like Alexis. a group three winner from freshwater pearl and uh so anyways he's got a number of um and and another one in here just just while we're at a lot 396 i am invincible crossed with fiery vista um this uh is from uh uh tom magnier it's only 1.1 million sure so just if you get a couple million bucks burning a hole in your pocket maybe you just sold the company to atlassian go pick up one of these horses and tell them that the technology brothers sent you this might be our favorite colt in the sale he's just a biomechanic and a geometric scorer fantastic and people say it's a lot of money but i mean look at it it's a lot of horse they're giving this they're giving this uh sire away fantastic so thank you to tom uh wilson and uh get back to the show bucket poll oh this is a good one paul bukite yc powder creator of gmail yc partner says x should stop demoting links and instead use grok to attach a short summary of the linked content it would achieve the same goal of keeping people on site but be less annoying and yeah the demotion of links is really wild we had a banger post that was completely silenced the built different google dot com post one of our greatest of all time and it was destroyed by the fact that links the post the post was real posters post links and still do numbers google google dot com built different and it had some early traction it just died off completely yeah and the reason i was inspired by that to be honest is that mark and mark andreason is just not afraid to post links just rip a link and still do numbers yeah i think it helps to have millions of followers you know You can still do numbers off of a big base, even with the algo.

1:46:57But post links. Don't let the algorithm rule your life. Rule the algorithm. I completely disagree. I say it is disrespectful to Elon's culture to post links on X. He's very politely asked through some very clear, subtle messaging that you should not post links. But seriously, if you're a founder and you're trying to promote anything, just don't have the website in mind at all. Like it needs to be fully X native. And that's why, why do vibe reels go viral? Why do threads and long posts go viral? When Lulu launched her company, what did she do? She posted a long post, the going direct manifesto.

1:47:32This won her brother of the year. And, and she understands that, you know, why try and fight with one hand tied your time behind your back with a link down in the comments and all that stuff. Like just tag your company, have your company have in your company's profile, have the link in the profile. Or just appeal to smart people who can figure it out. Like just say. I don't. People don't need the handhold. From a pure conversion rate optimization standpoint, one click to your company profile, your project profile, or whatever you're trying to promote, link in that bio. Shut down your company. Your company is now your X account.

1:48:07Your monetization is your revenue. Your X check is your revenue. There's a lot of founders making more money from X monetization than their companies. This is the future. Everyone's an influencer. and has taken all the other jobs so you don't need to link out you just need to post yeah get that check engagement bait and you're good uh i do like that idea though uh let's go to noah smith this is some good news we're winning the war on cancer u.s death rates for all cancers from 1975 to 2022 have fallen significantly from a peak for of uh for both sexes around 220 210 per 100 000 people down to sub 150 what do you think i thought this was good i mean good news hard for me to even think about that even though it's great news when uh noah is doing absolute numbers on subsec yeah absolute sub sex size lord i mean at this point he doesn't even need health care he can just pay out of pocket if he gets cancer that's dark but uh true the guy's doing crazy numbers has a bunch of paid subs and uh it's because uh all the best journalism and uh journalists in the world are growing independent and uh it's a death sentence for traditional media it is yeah he's done he's done well uh should we wrap it up there yeah that's a good place to end this is a fun show So thanks for watching.

1:49:32Looking forward to tomorrow. Thank you.

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