In short
The hosts recap a high-stakes Cannes/France trip and then shift into tech/media business analysis: (1) creator economy monetization tradeoffs (independent creators moving from content to costly “shows,” and legacy media improving YouTube packaging), (2) smart glasses market reality—Meta/Ray-Ban sales, privacy/jailbreaking concerns, and who smart glasses are for, and (3) Meta’s AI/enterprise efforts and a rumored prediction-markets app (“Arena”) that may start without real money.
Guest backgrounds
No named guests appear in the transcript. The episode is primarily hosts discussing news and their own experiences.
Key claims
- Creator economy: independence vs consolidation is a “sorting process,” not one-size-fits-all; monetization lags behind production costs (e.g., lack of logical ad breaks in long-form creator “shows”).
- Legacy media: NYT-style shows succeed on YouTube due to better titles/thumbnails and high production/editing; examples include The Ezra Klein Show and Popcast.
- Smart glasses: Meta has sold ~7M+ pairs since 2025 (Ray-Bans ~2M units; ~$2.1–$3B estimated gross retail sales), but investors discount it because it’s not yet a dominant computing platform.
- Smart glasses privacy: creators reportedly jailbreak/disable recording lights (e.g., turning off the light) to film people without consent.
- Meta: employees reportedly reassigned to AI data labeling; Zuck also directed building an experimental prediction-markets app (“Arena”) without real money initially.
Notable examples
- Cannes/France trip: France banned nicotine pouches; airport/plane AC failures; “Kylie Jenner” Meta glasses get high reviews.
- Creator revenue list: MrBeast cited at ~$300M gross revenue; D’Amelio ~$18M; Druski ~$20M; Stephen Bartlett ~$52M.
- Popcast: rebuilt an “authentic dive bar” set; vertical social promo for “song of the week.”
- Smart glasses competitors: Snap Specs (~$2,200) and Google/Samsung eyewear lines; Apple Vision Pro demo interrupted by flight staff.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VORamp Team Developments
0:30 to 1:07
Discussion about the ramp team's dynamics and recent changes.
“We've, we've obviously had like tons of conversations with the ramp team over the years and it's like actually always been 50, 50 Kareem, Eric.”
Reflections on a Challenging Trip
1:07 to 1:38
Hosts discuss their rough experience while traveling to France.
“Yeah, it was rough It's actually it's genuinely it's genuinely brutal.”
The Heat at the French Airport
1:38 to 4:02
A story about the extreme heat and issues faced at the airport in Paris.
“Of course, Jordi has battled with French President Emmanuel Macron in the past.”
Cannes Conference Highlights
4:02 to 5:26
Insights on the Cannes conference and notable company presences such as Vibe.co.
“We get to the we get to the airport planes ready pilots ready and you know they tell us again like hey we're just figuring out some stuff we're gonna take off as soon as we can.”
The Evolution of Advertising
6:24 to 7:36
Discussion on the changing landscape of advertising and the creator economy.
“Before we continue, let me tell you about MongoDB.”
Creator Economy Dynamics
7:36 to 13:00
Exploration of the balance between independent creators and large organizations.
“And this trade-off is sort of interesting to dig into as we see both creators go bigger and produce more expensive shows.”
Traditional Media vs. New Creators
13:00 to 14:00
Analysis of how traditional media is adapting to the modern creator landscape.
“traditionally creator-led platforms i think the new york times has done a fantastic job here You have The Ezra Klein Show and Ross Douthat, who are sort of like the left and right perspectives.”
The Changing Landscape of Social Media
14:00 to 19:10
Explore the evolving dynamics of social media platforms and their unique strategies.
“And of course, there's cost associated with that.”
Introduction of David Senra
19:10 to 19:25
A brief introduction to David Senra and his work.
“I think everyone sort of needs to find their own way and figure out what's right for them.”
Discussion on Smart Glasses Market Trends
19:59 to 28:01
Analyzing the current state and future potential of smart glasses.
“This is on the back of the new Meta glasses that launched.”
Show all 57 chapters
The Future of Advertising and Smart Glasses
28:01 to 28:48
Discussion about the idea of wearing smart glasses that could bark ads and the future potential of such technology.
“I want to be wearing the glasses and I want it to be barking ads at everyone around me while noise canceling those ads to me.”
Apple's Smart Glasses and Market Skepticism
28:53 to 29:45
Exploration of Apple's potential smart glasses and the skepticism surrounding face-worn computing devices.
“Anyway, so Apple is reportedly hard at work on its own smart glasses, although it's unclear when they might arrive.”
AI Integration and Everyday Use Cases
29:46 to 30:56
Discussion on the practicality of AI features in smart glasses and the everyday uses that might justify their existence.
“Artificial intelligence let these glasses identify objects in our field of view.”
Smart Cars and Future Transportation
30:57 to 31:49
A lighthearted conversation about smart cars like the Renault Twizy and their potential for social gatherings.
“And then just say you're not five years old.”
Generative AI and Smart Glasses Concerns
31:50 to 33:04
Concerns regarding the integration of generative AI in consumer products and the implications of smart glasses.
“Imagine you and your best friends have a fleet of these, and you're just like, hey, let's go to the park.”
Challenges of Smart Glasses Usability
33:05 to 34:38
Discussion on the usability challenges faced by smart glasses and the market for corrective eyewear.
“They're technological inevitability, a new consumer tech arms race for the last and best real estate on our bodies.”
Ethics of Recording with Smart Glasses
34:39 to 37:18
A dive into the ethical implications of using smart glasses for recording people without their consent.
“The catch, you have to be seen in public wearing these to get the most out of it.”
Meta's AI Shift and Future Plans
37:41 to 42:00
Examination of Meta's pivot towards AI and its implications for the company's future.
“Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.”
Meta's Prediction Markets App: Risks and Sentiment
42:00 to 47:10
A discussion on Meta's experimental prediction markets app, its risks, and current user sentiment towards prediction markets.
“So, so sentiment on poly, on, on prediction markets is like, I don't know if it's at an all time low.”
Kylie Jenner and Robert Downey Jr.: Celebrity Partnerships
47:10 to 49:50
Analyzing the effectiveness of celebrity endorsements with a comparison of Kylie Jenner's campaign versus Robert Downey Jr.'s potential partnership.
“But, you know, not a move that's, like, very defensible, right?”
The Future of Wearables and Market Competition
49:50 to 54:10
Exploring the competitive landscape of wearables and the potential impact of new products like Meta's glasses and Snap's spectacles.
“A good reference to Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, a famous one.”
AI Models and Government Directives
55:16 to 56:00
Discussion about AI model development, government restrictions, and the implications for companies in the space.
“Because I would assume Soul is the biggest, then Terra is the medium, and then Luna is the smallest in terms of the model size.”
Distill Gate and Token Reselling
56:00 to 56:41
Discussion on the implications of distill gate and its effects on token reselling.
“Which is brutal because our very own Dan Shipper will not be able to do a vibe check on it, at least yet.”
Russ Savage's Real Estate Move
56:41 to 59:19
Exploration of Russ Savage's luxury real estate listings and market dynamics.
“Terra is a balanced model for efficient everyday work.”
Savage's Background and Wealth
59:19 to 1:01:14
A deep dive into Russ Savage's history, wealth, and family connections.
“Wait, what do you mean took the name in honor of his father?”
SpaceX Financial Dynamics
1:01:14 to 1:01:51
Analyzing the financial implications of SpaceX's stock performance and bond sales.
“I would say Nick, work on it, but somebody is not in the Ultradome today.”
Bubble Territory and Investment Concerns
1:01:51 to 1:06:03
Discussion on the potential bubble in the market as it relates to SpaceX's financial decisions.
“SpaceX decision to launch a$25 billion bond sale shortly after raising$86 billion in a record-breaking IPO is a clear sign that the markets are entering bubble territory.”
Data Centers and AI Impact
1:06:16 to 1:10:00
Examining the role of data centers in supporting AI growth and community benefits.
“Theo Vaughn says nobody wants a data center, dude And the people that want them to me they seem kind of evil.”
Exploring AI Government Intervention
1:10:00 to 1:13:22
Discuss the implications of government intervention in AI and its impact on innovation.
“It's not some sort of like broad-reaching apply, you know, just like the rule exists and then everyone can easily comply.”
Risks and Responses in AI Development
1:13:22 to 1:16:00
Examine the challenges in biosecurity and the pace of AI advancements.
“We'll need to talk to more people that understand biosecurity risk and and see where this goes.”
National Security and AI Regulation
1:16:00 to 1:18:12
Analyze the intersection of national security and AI regulation, including challenges posed by open-source models.
“Well, why is the open source model frontier advancing?”
SoftBank's Future Vision
1:18:12 to 1:20:10
Delve into SoftBank's strategic outlook and Masayoshi Son's long-term plans for ASI.
“We might need to run a no interview week.”
The Evolution of Artificial Super Intelligence
1:20:10 to 1:24:00
Discuss the concept of Artificial Super Intelligence and its potential impact on society.
“Yes, a lot of people have been talking about this for a long time Masa kind of tied it up in a bow for everyone.”
Exploring ASI Predictions
1:24:00 to 1:25:02
Discussion on past predictions about artificial superintelligence (ASI) and its implications.
“But he does need a huge amount of credit for calling the shot on ASI a decade before AI 2027.”
The Golden Goose Metaphor
1:25:02 to 1:26:21
Analysis of the 'golden goose' metaphor in the context of venture capital and value generation.
“Physical AI, robots for high-risk work, rescue from disasters, solve labor shortages.”
The Importance of the Goose
1:26:21 to 1:28:39
Discussion on how the source of value lies in the abilities to create rather than just the outcomes.
“So he's planning for a quadrillion of value or something like that.”
AI Design and Efficiency
1:28:39 to 1:31:26
Conversation on the aesthetic simplicity of AI presentations and the efficiency of design tools.
“morning you go to get in your car you just see that reminder that like it's not about like like the value is in yourself, right?”
Character AI and Gnome's Insights
1:31:33 to 1:34:14
Exploration of insights on Character AI and the contributions of Gnome in the AI landscape.
“Speaking of decks, Character AI deck from 2021.”
OpenAI's Developments and Future
1:34:14 to 1:38:01
Discussion on OpenAI's recent developments and comparisons in technology timelines.
“It says, version zero, a million use cases, fun and interesting conversations, companionship, recommendations, foreign language practice, practice social situations, assistive writing.”
Exploring Skylight Technology
1:38:01 to 1:40:50
Learn about the innovative Skylight LED panel and its potential benefits.
“It uses Signify's Nature Connect tech to create the depth, brightness, and color shifts of natural daylight.”
The Debate on Corporate Pricing
1:40:51 to 1:42:42
Discover the discussion on Apple's pricing strategies and corporate greed.
“I think that there's a very simple swap out of those can lights, those can LEDs.”
Market Reactions to Apple's Price Increases
1:42:43 to 1:47:33
Understand the implications of Apple's price hikes on the tech market.
“They held back on a few devices, but Bernie Sanders is mad about it.”
The Rise of Small Trucks
1:47:42 to 1:51:42
Explore the growing trend of small trucks and their market potential.
“Before we talk about the Slate truck, we got to talk about Rio Industries.”
Comparing Slate and Maverick XL Trucks
1:51:43 to 1:52:01
Analyze the features and pricing between the Slate and Maverick XL trucks.
“but in terms of functionality, you kind of get everything you want there because the front area of a Rivian truck is kind of doing nothing.”
Customizing the Slate Truck: A Unique Offering
1:52:01 to 1:54:54
Discussion on the potential and customization features of the Slate truck.
“because it would look like a Volkswagen.”
Range and Competition in Electric Vehicles
1:54:55 to 1:57:54
Analysis of the range of the Slate truck and its competition with Tesla.
“I actually think the actual customization software on the website is like very janky.”
Air Conditioning Debate in Europe
1:57:55 to 2:00:39
Discussion on the challenges and regulations surrounding air conditioning in Europe.
“Because you have to imagine that you could have cheap solar panels powering AC in a building and have a pretty good business, sort of like solar city for AC or something all across France.”
The Impact of Air Conditioning on Civilization
2:00:40 to 2:01:14
Exploration of how air conditioning has transformed public efficiency and life.
“it was like, what percentage of weeks are parents sick with something viral generally, as a function of how many kids they have?”
Health Innovations: Curing Common Illnesses
2:01:15 to 2:05:04
Discussing the initiative to eliminate respiratory viruses and its implications.
“they are so woefully unprepared for having children.”
Luxury Real Estate: The Skyfall Mansion
2:05:05 to 2:06:05
A review of the opulent features of a spec mansion inspired by James Bond.
Exciting News About Apple Vision Pro
2:06:05 to 2:07:05
Discussion on the implications of leadership changes in Apple's hardware division.
“Vision, autism capital is a vision bros right now.”
Luxury Malibu Mansion Overview
2:07:05 to 2:08:15
Exploration of a high-end Malibu mansion on the market and its unique features.
“So how do you actually go enjoy the ocean other than just looking at it?”
Michael Cohen's Winning Streak
2:08:15 to 2:10:04
The story of Michael Cohen's success in fantasy sports and his extravagant purchases.
“You saw the 85-year-old man was arrested after allegedly street racing at over 100 miles per hour in a sports car while smoking a cigarito.”
The Unique Features of Cohen's Home
2:10:04 to 2:12:36
A detailed look at the extravagant features of Michael Cohen's mansion.
“Sager is going to pretend that this never got public.”
Tribute to Ohm Malik
2:12:36 to 2:14:46
A reflection on the legacy of Ohm Malik and his impact on the tech community.
“dangerous it's a huge source of uh of of of uh risk to your health be careful not for this guy He does not have luck issues.”
Figma's Latest Innovations
2:14:46 to 2:15:48
Discussion of Figma's new features and their implications for designers.
“We couldn't be there because we were traveling, but there's this crazy launch Figma Motion Design.”
Closing Thoughts and Future Plans
2:15:48 to 2:16:48
The hosts wrap up the episode and discuss their plans for the coming week.
“Trillionaire, I know what you're gonna post and this is so silly.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:29You're watching TBPN! development in the ramp story. I was thinking about it. We've, we've obviously had like tons of conversations with the ramp team over the years and it's like actually always been 50, 50 Kareem, Eric. Uh, and so very natural move for them. I mean, they've been working together for over a decade at this point across multiple companies and have always, and both founders and both, uh, you know, major shareholders, like following in our footsteps. Yeah, this is the TV fan effect we get we get to take credit for this. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah Congrats to Kareem on the promotion the field promotion.
1:05It's very exciting and go check out ramp. Of course We're back equally important. We're back France. We miss you guys. I miss you guys a lot. Yeah, it was rough It's actually it's genuinely it's genuinely brutal. It's brutal. We feel deeply unwell by around 1 p.m. if we haven't gone live, regardless of the time zone. The sweating and shaking is crazy. Yeah. It is a full withdrawal. Yeah, and the withdrawals. I mean, maybe it would get better after a few weeks. But yeah, the symptoms are brutal. Anyway, it was a high-stakes trip. Of course, Jordi has battled with French President Emmanuel Macron in the past.
1:43And then what appeared to be a direct shot at me, France recently banned nicotine pouches. fully uh very controversial pretty much all oral nicotine products banned yeah so uh as of april yeah and so we went over there we went over there to make country we went over there to make amends uh and right away it felt like you know they were sending messages yeah uh straight from the top yep because we land in paris yeah and we have a connecting flight yeah yeah uh where where the conferences. And, you know, we get in the airport, you know, we're excited to be there. Paris, right? The sun is shining.
2:24Small issue is it's roughly 100 degrees inside the airport. Coincidence. Interesting coincidence. Yeah. You're there. Right when we show up. Then it gets hot. Generational heat wave. Yeah. And of course, there's no air conditioning, right? It's legitimately 100 degrees. You look around, there's everyone has their fans out. they're like sweating profusely uh really really messy situation uh go to a cafe try to get an ice drink they're out of ice the whole airport doesn't have ac or ice in the whole airport and then we go to get on our flight and uh we sit down and you know we're waiting we're waiting starting to feel like we're waiting a little bit too long to get off the ground about 45 minutes in they come over the intercom and let us know that the air conditioning on the plane is broken and they're working on fixing it 30 minutes later they come over again and they say we've been unable to get the air conditioning working we're not going to be able to take off you have to deplane and you know we we felt terrible for all the other passengers because clearly it was macron just sabotaging our flight.
3:38But for him to inconvenience, you know, hundreds of other people just - It shows you how important it is to him. Just to get at us. To inconvenience you, yeah. It's just insane. To me, that crossed the line. It's like, if it's, you know, clearly it's personal. Yep. But figure out a way to, you know, come at us. Be a little more targeted with it. Yeah, more targeted with it. Exactly. Why does there need to be so much collateral damage? And then, of course, on our next flight, Yep. We get to the we get to the airport planes ready pilots ready and you know they tell us again like hey we're just figuring out some stuff we're gonna take off as soon as we can.
4:16We're bored we decide hey is any anything world any like World Cup games on we should turn turn it on and see. So we're sitting there and we're like whoa France is actually playing in the World cup right now what what are the chances uh and so we keep kind of checking in with the pilot he and and he's like yeah we need we need a little bit more time we're not really sure why uh the plane's there the pilot's there they're ready to go we're like what's going on a little bit later like we're ready to go 10 minutes before you know it's like 35 minutes into the game they're like hey we just need a few more minutes the fuel truck's going to be here soon thank you for your patience this time by this point we've been waiting for like an hour and a half and uh halftime starts 10 minutes later there's fuel in the plane we're ready to go and we're just sitting there like coincidence coincidence i think not um anyways a little bit of a little bit of a journey to get there but uh we had a good week yeah it was good adquick was there representing we saw some adquick uh billboards and uh mercedes with adquick livery that looked pretty sick.
5:26That's right. Who else was there? Who? With one of the best out-of-home placements of the event, Vibe.co. Vibe.co. Who announced a$1.4 billion acquisition to Walmart the first day, the first real day of the conference. That was really good. So congratulations to the Vibe.co team. Pretty unbelievable. I wouldn't say they were under the radar because they were very loud with their advertising but in a sea of just like AI exits they stand out as one of the most impressive runs of the last couple years I saw some people digging into the Walmart strategy around Vibe and they have a whole host of other platforms for their ad platform that seems to be coming together quite nicely We should dig into it more and have the founder on to talk about the journey.
6:24Before we continue, let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI. Own the data platform that powers it. Little history. Can Lions. It used to be mostly about creative advertisements, giving awards for creativity, mostly in consumer. They didn't really have a B2B focus until maybe a decade ago. now it's much more broad much more corporate as you saw we mentioned you know ad like digital ad platforms have presences there it's much more performance oriented and there's a big focus on the creator economy it really cuts across different media forms you know big networks and television will be there the new york times will be there but then also small youtubers instagram creators a whole host of people will be sent there alongside some sort of brand on like a brand trip Spotify threw a big concert on the beach John Summit played because they have a large ads platform primarily like it makes sense that Spotify would have a music guest but they're there specifically to promote their ads product Yahoo had Tiesto play again basically to facilitate deals around their ads business there are other activations from big tech companies and ad platforms athletes attend Hollywood talent agencies host parties it's not packed with a list celebrities but it feels like everyone has a following of some sort and that was a big point of discussion like there was one level of conversation that was just like creators are the future everyone's heard this pitch a million times but the bigger discussion was something that Andrew Ross Sorkin from Squawk Box CNBC deal book mentioned talking about the trade offs between independence and consolidation you've talked about this before just the idea of a roll-up of independent sub stackers where is the right economy of scale in the creator in the creator economy maybe not everyone should be independent, maybe not everyone should be with a large organization.
8:19And this trade-off is sort of interesting to dig into as we see both creators go bigger and produce more expensive shows. And then also the legacy media companies are getting better at social media type content. So we can kind of dig into this. Andrew's post was really widely discussed in creator circles, but we'll read it here. I'm flying back from Cannes. Something I've been thinking about. I was taken aback by how some of what I thought were the most successful influencers say that they need to spend so much money to keep up that they're not making the kind of headline-popping numbers we often read about.
8:59And he asks for thoughts. And a lot of people, High Yield Harry says, not surprising. You can't be at 80 to 90 % EBITDA margins forever and expect to retain attention and scale. it's going to bring in more competition. And that's a piece of what's happening. I think there's a few things happening. One is the big transition from independent creators pivoting from making content to making shows. And you can look at Subway takes in this way. The other show is Keep the Meter Running. Much more produced, much more edited, much more costly to produce. And then also, but you're still faced with some of the awkwardness around how do you actually monetize that?
9:43There isn't a logical ad break, although I think there should be in a three-minute Subway Takes ad video, a three-minute episode. I think that it would be fine to have a five to ten second mid-roll in the middle of that. But that has not been done. Like that floodgate hasn't opened yet. So most creators are doing so it's either a really polished Vertical video about their own content and then they'll do a promoted post. That's another 30 second 60 second multi-minute Vertical video in their same style but purely sponsored content and a lot of those videos don't go as viral And so you have this awkward trade-off where the content that's great that people want can't be monetized You have to do like one and one it'd be a little bit tricky like part of the way our show works is that we're just talking about whatever and then we'll tell you about cisco critical infrastructure for the ai era unlock seamless real-time experiences a new value with cisco it would be different if we had to do every other episode every other episode is just purely about cisco and then we go back to about just the news and talking um and so that's that's something that's like starting to evolve um and those higher cost structures i think that they still have more enduring yeah for value out with their top creators list and yeah earnings mr beast was at the top with 300 million huge i would imagine that's revenue that yeah like earnings is is not the right word here it should just be gross revenue yeah yeah uh i i have no idea what what uh jimmy's margins actually look like on that 300 uh but i'm it it would appear he's spending like he's obsessed with reinvesting for yeah yeah that's always been a part of as opposed to Joe Rogan who has these big deals and he seems completely content to be in a tiny set and yeah same same and not really trying to buy anything to accelerate growth.
11:37Dar man was number two at 65 in top line. Stephen Bartlett at 52. Archiplier 38. Rhett and Link 37. Charlie D 'Amelio 18 uh druski 20 ice to speed 30 uh very weird that that uh doesn't seem to be ordered by oh really just ordered loosely they're just yeah anyways yeah darman has production costs as well he does these like short scripted uh stories uh mostly for he's huge on facebook but he's big on other platforms as well and they have real costs because he has to go find a set a location uh real cameras multi-camera shoots editing and real actors of course all of it is like low budget filmmaking but there is cost to that and it is of course increasing as the as the competitive as the competition heats up trey says rogan has a lot of peptide expenses i don't think you can spend a hundred million dollars a year on peptides if that's what he's bringing in top line anyway the zero marginal cost era of yapping into your iphone it seems ultra competitive now it seems like it's increasingly rare to see that scale in 2026 people are still breaking through but they're breaking through with new more polished products that of course have higher costs simultaneously traditional media companies are starting to dial in content strategies for traditionally creator-led platforms i think the new york times has done a fantastic job here You have The Ezra Klein Show and Ross Douthat, who are sort of like the left and right perspectives.
13:14And their shows have become really successful on YouTube, a lot due to the packaging. They understand how to get a good title and thumbnail together. The editing, the production values are really, really high quality. And so those podcasts do very well on YouTube in a way that other shows from legacy media companies, It's been hard for them to break through traditionally, but they certainly have. And it's interesting that it's recent. Another example is the pop cast, John Karamanica, who we hung out with and his co-host Joe. They have really taken that show and made it very Internet native to the point where they produce a ridiculously polished vertical video for Instagram and social media every week to promote the song of the week.
14:05and it's in a different location. And of course, there's cost associated with that. But what's really interesting about it is that you can be a new social media consumer who's blissfully unaware of the entire world that exists behind the NYT paywall and you can still learn about it. And their strategy was interesting. So a lot of the big platforms, the Spotify's, the Snaps, the Meta's, the YouTubes, they would build this basically mini festival on the beach where they'd take over an entire hotel. Popcast went a different route. They rebuilt an authentic dive bar just off of the strip full of actors and characters.
14:46There was a guy wearing a kilt. And so when you went, and when we went to have a meeting with them, it felt like we were in a French dive bar. Yeah, we were like, wow, this actually feels like we're getting a taste of what the real con would be like. Yeah, yeah, real can. Yeah, it was cool. So I thought that was really cool. Yeah, very, very cool of them to do that. The other thing that was interesting, France appeared to put Brian Johnson on a pack of cigarettes. Pull up this image. That does look like Brian Johnson. Really out of pocket to take an asset. It works pretty well, though. Don't die.
15:25Don't smoke. It's his message. I think he would approve this. But I saw this and I had to take a picture. Because I was like, is it actually uncanny? He has like a lot of pictures of himself. It does look like him. Laying down like that, eyes closed. Also, this looks like a man being put in a body bag, but at the same time, it looks like just a man who got a beautiful night's sleep getting tucked in after a nice couple of hot heaters. He ripped a couple darts, had a couple of ears, crushed a couple cold ones, and now he's ready to get put to bed by someone. Yeah, this is actually much more tame than some of the others.
16:00Oh, some of them are gruesome. Like, so gruesome showing, like, the x-rays of cancer patients and, like, black lungs and stuff. Like, this is pretty mild. If you look like this guy after you're smoking a whole pack, like, you're doing pretty well. I think it's fine. Anyway, the end state of this debate, it's interesting. There's a little bit of grass is always greener on the other side going on with independent creators thinking, ah, maybe it'd be better if I was with a larger organization and then vice versa with a lot of the folks inside big organizations saying, ah, if I left, I could probably make so much more money.
16:34I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all approach here. I think it's more of a sorting process. Some creators will find elegant business models outside of large organizations. Like, those 80 % to 90 % EBITDA margins still exist for certain categories, certain products. Yeah, look at obsession, right? It's like a low margin, highly competitive, but it's hits-driven. So you can have one breakout hit and, you know, have insane margins. Yeah, and then there's also just, there's certain formats and certain shows that will be sticky and then also not scale with cost. Whereas, like, the Mr. Beast model of doing ever bigger reality TV show style stunts, that probably does scale cost with views over time.
17:14But, you know, if you're going to be doing criticism or gaming creation or streaming or something, there are certain things like Rogan, you tell him, hey, go spend an extra$10 million like he doesn't really know what to do with it. Yeah, it's like how people imagine the SaaS business model, right? You can scale revenue without scaling incremental costs, but it's actually true in the case. And there are some companies and software that have done that. And then there's some where you're just like, wait, really? They're still driving up costs? And it's because of their particular market. So I think it's more of this sorting process.
17:49Some creators will find elegant business models outside of traditional organizations. Others will probably wind up leveraging the possibility of going independent into more meaningful contracts within traditional media organizations. I think that might be a trend. There might be some shift in the mindset of traditional media companies where they realize that someone that they were paying as a journalist or as a reporter is now proper talent and could take their audience with them. And so there is a contract renegotiation because they don't want to wind up in the position of like the Vox, BuzzFeed, Vice, where all the best talent left and took their audiences with them.
18:26And there's probably a meet in the middle where you're not paying them through the nose, but you're paying them more than what they were making just as someone who is like below the line, just like a content creator internally once they actually break out. And so I think there will be lots of mistakes along the way. No doubt some folks who should be independent will stay too long and vice versa. Some people who would be better suited for being inside a large organization, leveraging all of those capabilities will go independent and then regret it and maybe go back. But it's increasingly clear that a one-size-fits-all approach, perhaps with a tagline like, independent creators are the future.
19:05I don't think that fits quite. I don't think that quite fits anymore. to each their own. I think everyone sort of needs to find their own way and figure out what's right for them. David Senra is in the chat. Hello, Senra. Good to see you. We miss you. Founders Podcast and the David Senra Show. Go check it out. He's been on an absolute tear, a generational run. Let me tell you about public.com, investing for those who take it seriously. We got stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service. You can go on there. Someone else was saying it doesn't seem like a coincidence that global markets were in freefall while we were gone.
19:47That makes sense. We weren't holding out the global economy. So hoping for a swift recovery. Yeah. You can make your own decision on whether or not you're buying the dip, but do it on public.com. Smart glasses are inevitable, but what or who are they for, says Christopher Mims in the Wall Street Journal. This is on the back of the new Meta glasses that launched. Christopher Mims says, the deluge of smart glasses has begun. Has it? It feels like, I don't know if it's a deluge. It feels more like just a trickle or like a steady stream. But maybe I've been following it too closely. I think that's all of my problems with analyzing this category, and we'll get into that.
20:28My criticisms are like very odd technical problems. So Meta has been selling a lot of glasses. The products are... Like dozens? Hundreds? No, they've been selling, I believe they're already in the millions of units. Millions of units. Hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue? I believe so. Okay. Ben. I think it's getting... Work on fact-checking. I agree with you. I think it's getting material. I think it's getting material. But what I was going to say is that it's for products that are functionally like a great pair of glasses with a camera attached. Yeah. Right? These are not like I don't see a lot of people talking about like oh, I'm I'm I'm replacing air pods entirely with these even if even if that is one is that just and that is also with like having Being able to sell through a one-of-one ad unit on the greatest Distribution platform in history where they're going up against stiff competition like the Apple vision Pro is so good that like you know it's like we are jobs finished like we have the apple vision pro why it was so it was so funny so i never tried the apple vision pro until this trip and uh i asked john i was like hey can i can i take him for a spin and you were like oh it's like kind of a hassle to set up it is and you have to like put it in guest mode but john was like no i want jordy to experience this And so we go through this whole like hassle of setting it up and I'm like 20 seconds into the dinosaur demo and the flight attendant comes up and is like tapping me on the, taking me out of virtual reality.
22:04And I was like the audacity. And I think the question was just like, are those cool or something? It wasn't like, sir, you need to put on your seatbelt or something. I was fully immersed and it completely ruined it for me. And what's funny is like the whole pitch for the Appalivision Pro was like, you don't need to take it off to talk to somebody because it will show the eyes. And no, Tyler's on his way back. You guys went to France for raising. Raising canes. Yes. Raising can. Raising can is good. Yes. Tyler got left at CDG. Yeah. Yeah. Shottity. But. We got Timu. We got Timu. Timu Tyler. Tyler.
22:45Yeah. I have the answer for the Meta glasses. Okay, yeah. How are we doing? So since 2025, there's been 7 million plus sold across Opie and Meta. $2 million was just the Ray-Bans. Okay. Wait, 2 million units? 2 million units. Okay. And that estimated gross retail sales was 2.1 to 3 billion. That's pretty good. Yeah, John. The way you were framing it, it was like, yeah, we've sold 7 million. And you're like,$7 million. And it's like, no, it's 7. 7 million. Like it's a lot of units. Yeah. A lot of units. Yeah. It's getting there. Uh, and, and there's, there's some level, uh, if it wasn't meta, we'd be like, wow, this company has like insane product market fit.
23:27Yeah. Selling 7 million units of a new consumer. Yeah. If it was or ring or whoop or something like that, we'd be very impressed. Yeah. I think you're a hundred percent correct. And it, and it would be like, it could probably be like a standalone public company, but people would still be slamming it for it for being like way worse than the Apple television pro in terms of watching, watching old films. I watched Master and Commander on it. It was great. It's a fantastic movie. Highly recommend Godfather part two. Also good Dunkirk. I got some, I did some damage on the back catalog. Uh, anyway, let's go back to Christopher Mims in the wall street journal.
24:02He says at the low end, there's a new line of meta glasses, which start at 299 and play well with vision benefit plans. Interesting. So you can buy them with insurance for another$100. There's a pair aimed at fans of Kylie Jenner. We saw these in action and they looked great. I think reviews are very, very high quality. If I hadn't seen the launch, I wouldn't have noticed that they were meta glasses at all. Yes, yes. I would have just assumed they were like. It has this jewel. You can see it. It's that small white like glint right there. And I was so confused by this, but this is purely a me problem.
24:42Because I assumed that that was a recording light or some sort of display. Because if you look at the meta Ray-Ban displays, you'll see that there's slight grooves in the glass for forming the beams to show you the display. And so I was like, oh, that's a smart feature. That is there for a functional reason. But it's in fact not. It's purely aesthetic. And people who are in the market love this. I was confused by it, but I think I might be the only person that is confused by it. So I don't think it's a problem whatsoever. But there's no screen. There is a voice assistant. Alphabets, Google, and Samsung have teamed up to release their own competing lines due this fall from eyewear companies Gentle Monster and Warby Parker.
25:27For those itching to upgrade, there are glasses with in-lens displays. They cost more. Meta's is$800 and Specs from Snap is$2 ,200. They are so chunky they look like something you might see in a Prada ad and never in real life. Silicon Valley has been trying to make smart glasses happen for more than a decade. Remember Google Glass, Facebook and Instagram parent meta platforms has captured more than 80 % of this market. Not bad. But in 2025 that meant selling just 7 million pairs of glasses by comparison, the world buys more than 100 million smart watches a year and more than a billion smartphones.
26:04What does it say about the broad investor views on smart glasses overall if Meta has 80 % of this emerging category that's selling 7 million units and they get basically zero credit for it? I don't know. I don't know anybody that's excited about Meta. Well, it's not zero marginal cost. I know, but if it has even a 10 % chance of becoming actually a dominant consumer computing platform. I don't think that's the case, though. No one would say that the Apple Watch is a dominant computing platform. They would say it's a great accessories business for Apple, and it's probably worth$50 billion or$100 billion.
26:48And that's just not that material one way or another to a$2 trillion company or a company that hopes to be worth$2 trillion. And so I think that it can get there when I see 7 million pairs of glasses compared to 100 million smart watches I feel like this is perfect trajectory like this is great But you think that meta ever makes a free pair of glasses that's ad supported I don't know I think that an ads business would actually be much more attractive when you when you say oh They're making a billion dollars in revenue. That's not a hundred percent margin. I think about well what is Threads revenue going to be?
27:25And that's going to be much higher margin. Like Threads is probably more exciting to the core business and to the financial outcomes. Yeah, I just think, I think if you... I understand it's exciting. I like hardware. Like it's cool. It's just like, it's hard to underwrite to like some, oh, it's moving the needle on cashflow. This is going to pay for another data center. I would expect to see, just like we saw the ad-supported Kindle, I think we'll see the ad-supported Metaglasses. Are the ads on the inside for the wearer or on the outside for everyone interacting with me? For the user. So you're walking on a street and you walk past a restaurant.
27:57It pops up like, you know, get a free matcha. I don't like that. I like the other way. I want to be wearing the glasses and I want it to be barking ads at everyone around me while noise canceling those ads to me. So I don't have to hear that. You become a loud billboard. Exactly. I pay for the no ads version, but you didn't pay and you're sitting next to me. So unless you pay, you hear my ads. So you would dress up as like one of those guys. It's like a modern sign flipper. You dress up as a guy on the street, and you're pretending to do, like, what do you do for a living interviews, but then right when you get up, instead of saying, what do you do for a living, you just activate the ads, and you just try to bark, like, four or five ads.
28:35What is your intelligent cloud provider? Is it Railway? Which one is it? Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. That would be a great ad to bark out of your glasses on command. Anyway, so Apple is reportedly hard at work on its own smart glasses, although it's unclear when they might arrive. German said 2028, 2029, like we're more than a full year away, which is remarkably slow, given that I feel like when Apple enters this, they're going to do very well.
29:13I don't know. Maybe the Apple aesthetics won't work in the glasses market, but I feel like they have the design lineage and capabilities like they make small they make small devices like the technology is going to be great and very integrated and they just have to get the design right but you can have multiple shots on goal with different styles and frames so it doesn't seem like it will be hard for them to you know add that into your cart when you're getting a watch and an ipad and a phone um even though yeah they might cost a lot i don't know what the apple let's get into the skepticism okay since the start still it the idea of a face-worn computer has garnered skepticism even hostility which is understandable when most of us are trying to reduce our time in front of screens it seems absurd to mount them right in front of our eyeballs and we should why should we be uh why should we be okay with everyone we meet pointing internet connected cameras at us it feels like an assault on what little privacy we have left so why you carry a flashbang around.
30:14Then there's the built-in AI. Artificial intelligence let these glasses identify objects in our field of view. That is not a very compelling use case for me. Hot dog, not hot dog. It's just like I'm looking at a building. What is this building? It's a building. What is this tree? What do you see? It's a tree. I don't know. Do you care if it's a ficus tree or not? It's pretty rare. South African meerkat. How often are you running into an unidentified meerkat. This is not that big of a problem. The bigger one is that you're just able to talk to an AI agent and have it look up things for you, have it do whatever you want on your phone, in your world, in your agent.
30:53But it's very rare that you're seeing things in the real world. Oh, my God. What can is this? What is this? I need to know. It's like, come on. I know what a Diet Coke is. And then just say you're not five years old. Just say you're not five years old. But if I know what it is, then I don't need the visual part. I can just say, hey, I want some extra information about Diet Coke. I'm about to drink one. Can you look up the latest aspartame studies? Yeah, I do use, like I learned about a kind of car from Renault called the Twizy. Yeah. That is quite popular. And I did take a picture of this. Sure, sure.
31:28I have been doing that too. And ask chat, what is this? Yeah. But it's very, it's something that, pull up the Twizy. Also, I was playing. This is like potentially the coolest vehicle on the road. Yeah. I was playing a video game, and I took a photo of the screen when I had to upgrade my character in the role-playing game. And I was like, how should I allocate my points? Look at this. It's pretty sweet. Imagine you and your best friends. That is a smart car, too. It's not. Imagine you and your best friends have a fleet of these, and you're just like, hey, let's go to the park. It's the French dream.
32:03Hey, let's go play some golf. and you pull up to the golf course and you don't even get out of your car. You just drive straight to the first hole. They should be able to have a series of toe hitches where you can create a road train out of them and then one person drives and the rest can shell. That would be very cool. We saw some kids bombing around in some crazy smart cars having a great time. Goldrock says, business idea. Pay people to blast your ads on JBL speakers and crowded places. faces. I think you could potentially make a run at that before regulation came in. Shrek it up. Shrek that Twizy, please.
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32:45Then, okay. But there's growing unease with companies sticking generative AI features into any and all products and having a little AI gin always whispering in our ear seems like a cautionary Taylor, a Twilight Zone episode. And yet there will be smart glasses, and you and I might even choose to wear them. They're technological inevitability, a new consumer tech arms race for the last and best real estate on our bodies. I envision that someday all glasses could be smart glasses, said a man who should know. Zaid, who heads the division of Qualcomm, responsible for making the chips that go into the Meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses.
33:25Who are they for, though? The problem with most smart glasses is that it remains unclear what exactly they are for. Steve Jobs once said that design is as much about what something does as how it looks. It isn't hard to imagine that were he still alive today, his critique of most of the smart glasses on the market would be scathing. Take the snap specs. They are a triumph of engineering, squeezing a fighter pilot's helmet's worth of optics and computing into frames that, while not exactly svelte, or at least don't require a chin strap, but for what purpose? Snap chief executive Evan Spiegel said they could be used for live translation, turn-by-turn directions, working on the go.
34:10Has anyone made the motorcycle helmet computer? I think they do have fairly advanced helmets these days. I want a personal computer that's shaped as a motorcycle helmet that I can just wear around. That would be cool. It'd be like more cyberpunk. Palmer was teasing a very thin, small pair of smart-ish looking glasses. Yeah, it looked like they had bolted on to just traditional aviators, which were really cool. The catch, you have to be seen in public wearing these to get the most out of it. Your friends and colleagues would need them too. And that's assuming the software running on these lightweight computers can live up to the promise.
34:52I was thinking about like, yeah, like should you start with glasses that are woefully underpowered on the battery side? like if you if you launch a pair of smart glasses and they're 30 minute battery or something like very limited but they're really light and so people actually try them and then like is it better for everyone to complain about how heavy they are or how how how light they are but the battery keeps running out because at least that's a that's a signal that people are using it to the fullest if they complain like if if the vr headset's light and people are oh it runs out of battery i gotta plug it in all the time it's like okay well at least you got to that far at least you enjoyed it fully and then you uh and then you needed you know like working on that extension feels like an easier path senred dropping uh nuclear design is how it works steve jobs there you go um yeah i yeah i continue to believe that the biggest market for smart glasses will continue to be people that need corrective eyewear, right?
36:02Over a billion people in that market. And if you have to use glasses all day long, you may as well add some smart features. It's a tougher sell for people that aren't already dependent on glasses. Yeah, I do think that they, I mean, in addition to the traction on the sales figures, which are impressive, I'm starting to see more content that's created organically by metaglasses creators. But you know what those people are doing? What? In large part. They're faking. They are jailbreaking the glasses to not show that they're recording. Whoa, I didn't know that. Because so many of those videos, if somebody just walked up with a camera in your face, they wouldn't get the same reaction.
36:46They'd be like, stop filming me. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But instead they have like a pretty organic interaction. So they turn off the light. They turn off the light. It's very easy to like basically black it out. Sure, sure, sure. Cover it up. I think people have jailbroken them. Probably just put nail polish over it. Yeah, but there's actual jailbreaks so that you can basically disable the light. And so a lot of those videos are just people recording people without their permission or understanding. Yeah. And then just posting these like. A little bit of a violation of social contract. Yeah, yeah.
37:17No, not even just a little bit. Like a complete and total violation. and that's going to be a big problem. if you don't want to be a problem. Just never go outside. Just never touch grass. Yeah, I don't know. Well, Met is working on a bunch of other stuff. They're working on artificial intelligence. You may have heard first before we dig into this, let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Zephyr says, they seem to be pretty focused on coding right now. I'm pretty sure this is the largest coding training training data generation effort in the world.
37:54They have the compute. 30 to 50 % of engineers on core teams have been forcefully reassigned to data labeling in the ADO org, Agent Data Optimization. Powell McCormick convened the soiree which capped a packed day of meetings across Wall Street to deliver a message. Meta's radical plan to become a leader in AI will require vast amounts of capital and her door was open to discuss innovative financing structures and partnerships. They might wind up raising billions more to fund the build out of MSL and Meta's AI efforts. One engineer told this reporter that the whole situation feels like the movie The Hunger Games, when tributes are randomly selected and then removed from their environment to something completely different.
38:44Except at Meta, many more folks are being affected with between three to five from a 10-person team going from building products used by hundreds of millions to giving human feedback on AI-generated GitHub repos over and over. So a wider impact than in the Hunger Games with less drastic consequences. Yeah, still air-conditioned with free snacks, which they are improving, apparently. I don't know. It seems like it's bad. Yeah, so what do you... What... So, so, Doc, is we're going to have Metacode. yeah i mean it seems like they're trying to have a model that they would sell it on the api or something yeah and it's just um it seems like it's uh i don't know it's an entirely new motion um they have done this before though they at one point they were trying to compete with google workspace and have like a slack competitor effectively like you could run your company on facebook spaces and facebook messenger uh and i don't think that ever really took off So it is a new go-to-market motion, but it is simpler because you don't have to rip everything out.
39:47You just port over to this particular endpoint. Yeah, it's so interesting. It's so interesting because I would have expected, I was expecting Meta to spend enough money to get the Meta, AI, chat, GBT, Gemini, Claude competitor to the top of the charts and keep it there. because I expected Zuck to think like, hey, if I get people asking questions all day long, I can just target them much better. Oh, you mean the app store charts? Yeah, so I expected them to go super hard on consumer. They don't have background in enterprise. They bought Manus, but even Manus was like sort of unclear what they were going to do over time.
40:28Maybe they would integrate it into Ads Manager. But I expected them to just say like, Zuck say like, hey, I'm going to spend a lot of money. And I have billions of users already. I'm going to do whatever it takes to get a consumer chat app to the top of the charts, keep it there. And over time, just focus on this one thing. Yeah. And the Meta AI app sitting at 17 in the app store right now, you know, not nothing. But I don't, like the market is not, is clearly not like, is clearly not sending signals like, hey we're really excited for you guys to like pivot into enterprise and like yeah spend hundreds of billions of dollars competing against google aws microsoft google open ai anthropic uh you know all the chinese labs spacex like it's a lot no like this would be an absolutely incredible come from behind story yeah it would be one for the for the history books if they can do it yeah But I think it's reasonable that the market is saying, like, no, they're not pricing it in.
41:38Yeah, certainly. Well, there's other news. Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. Mike Isaac with an incredible scoop. Wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction markets, says Mike Isaac. Mike says importantly the app is currently experimental and will not include using real money though insiders have not fully ruled out a future in which that could happen do they have a fascinating move I think sentiment is at near rock bottom yeah just had that expose on poly markets advertising and so like the vibes are getting like more.
42:31Well, yeah. So, so sentiment on poly, on, on prediction markets is like, I don't know if it's at an all time low. I think users actually like generally like, they like the products. It's way lower when it was like, oh, we're going to find out who the next president is. And now it's like, it's a gambling thing for sports. And it's like, the vibe has very much shifted. Yeah. And I think, I think, yeah. I mean, a lot of people have had like, have, have benefited from using prediction markets as a data source. Like a lot of people have benefited from sports betting there's a story about a guy who won six million dollars on draft kings and built a mansion with a bowling alley in it i'm not kidding this guy's just like a great poker player and he's won a one million dollar uh he's won he's won over a million dollars in fantasy sports the millionaire maker fantasy sports tournament he's won it multiple times he's won it like seven times so so what i was saying is like prediction markets are that's what you're saying you know you know revenue is exploding yeah i think that's a sign that users like the product yeah uh i appreciate them as a data source i always have yeah um uh but but sentiment around them broadly is just like bad yeah uh and then uh sentiment around meta yeah is that almost an all-time low at least in the capital markets from their employee base right like people are you know very, very unhappy.
43:54Yeah. And so maybe Zuck is just saying like, F it. Like, I can't get it. I can't get any. Can't. I don't think it can get any worse. What's the. OK, here's a steel man on Arena, the prediction markets app from Meta. If it doesn't use real money, there's way less risk of like, yes, I saw this. I know exactly. BLT luck issue. Yeah. Instead of skill issue. I've never heard someone say lock issue. That's so good. It's so good. Anyway, I know you knew you were going to look at that. Very funny. Anyway, the arena bull case. The arena bull case is if it doesn't use money, you don't run into any of the controversy around like, oh, someone's going to spend their last dollar.
44:41They're going to get addicted to this, all this. Yeah, I totally believe that they'll never turn on the real dollar. But you can still, they, so the steel man is that they have not, they've gamified everything in the Instagram and Facebook orbit. And they actually haven't added pay to play mechanics, really. Like it is all like aura farming. You're, you're, you're farming for like fake currencies, likes, followers, reposts and tags and story views. And there's all these different dopamine hits that you get, which of course there's this discussion around addiction and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
45:16But it's not actually money. And so you could imagine if they can make arena and getting points in the arena as rewarding as getting a thousand likes on an Instagram post or a thousand views on a story post. People love the status of like making accurate predictions. A good call. Yeah, exactly. And so if all of that is integrated and you can go to someone's account and you can see, oh, well, they got this many views. They have this many followers. they they're followed by all these cool people and they also have run it up huge on arena this is like a high signal account and maybe i should follow it so i don't know it could be something i think i think part of it i think part of it is like social media is as being is starting to be viewed as something that is as bad as gambling for society potentially worth sure right potentially worse than gambling maybe and so part of it's just like f it i think users will like this they'll use it uh and and you can imagine like making instagram already one of the most addictive apps ever created and just adding casino functionality to it yep so you're gambling with your friends i i i i'm not you know i i think it's laugh this move is like laughable right okay in many ways just because it's just given the amount of fire that social media is already under.
46:43Like, you know, this court case, right? The addiction court cases and that. Now it's like, okay, well, like, we're sorry that, like, you think our app is, like, addictive. Like, you know, we're going to work this out in the courts. But while we do that, like, we're going to introduce gambling. It's like, it is just, like, a very funny move. And I'm sure they just wish, I'm sure they wanted to, like, keep it, you know, under wraps, and it's probably an experiment still. Yeah. But, you know, not a move that's, like, very defensible, right? Unless they stick with the no money thing. I'm actually, I'm thinking that if there's no money involved whatsoever, forever, I don't know that I have a problem with it.
47:29it's, it's potentially if people get so addicted to the status game of making good predictions that they just stopped doing real gambling, that could be good. He's trying to, that could be good for society. Wow. I hadn't thought about that. They're like, I don't care about making real money. Okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just thinking that like, yes, the, the, the, the, the fake currencies, virtual currencies, dopamine hits, like prestiging on call of duty is the same XP in Call of Duty, like, yes, you can get too addicted to it and you can just spend all night playing Call of Duty to try and prestige or level up or whatever.
48:04You can be hunting for a platinum trophy on some super hard PlayStation game all night and like that can be bad, but it's just a way different thing in terms of like what hitting rock bottom looks like when you're not involving real money. Like you can hit rock bottom being like, wow, I was scrolling Instagram reels four hours a day or I was playing Call of Duty all night, was sleepy at work the next day. It can be bad, not good, but it's nowhere near as big as I lost my college fund for my kid. I gambled it away. If there's no money, it's just a different conversation. I think you do need to put it in a different bucket.
48:41Yeah. The other thing is CalShe was reported as doing over$2 billion of annualized revenue. They're growing very quickly. I expect them to be well beyond that. Like if Zuck came in and he got 100 % of the sort of like online gaming market, it could like maybe move the needle a little bit on. But, you know, this isn't like a winner-take-all market, right? A lot of people like even all the apps are available. They still use their like, you know, some friend that has a sports book or whatever. Sure, sure. So it doesn't really feel like a move that you make when you're spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI.
49:23Like you're betting the company on AI. This seems like it, like I'm starting to maybe see that even though Zuck is very good at monetizing applications, that it might just be for the pure love of the game. Yeah, Rob Flaherty summed up the pushback. I'm at the child brain poisoning company. I'm at the gambling company. I'm at the combination child brain poisoning and gambling company. A good reference to Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, a famous one. But feedback to the Kylie Jenner meta glasses has been way, way better. Wow. Silicon Valley finally figured out who controls consumer spending. This is not finally.
50:06Meta has been partnering with great celebrities for a really long time. This does not come as a shock to me, but it is the right person to partner with. So it's fascinating because we were trying to estimate like how much Meta spent on this like partnership campaign. Yeah. I was putting it at like somewhere around like 50. I have no information on it. Million? Like 50 million. Yeah. Yeah. How much does it cost to get the top influencer in the entire world to do a campaign like this? Yeah. And launch a product with you? Yeah. You know, maybe something like$50 million. then Alex Heath Heathinator who we were with this week Scoop Athlete comes out and Scoop says Snap is working on a deal with Robert Downey Jr.
50:55to spend$100 million potentially for a partnership there which is deeply confusing for like a lot of reasons like the Kylie Meta campaign makes a lot of sense. Kylie is like one of the, like probably the or one of the top influencers on Instagram, right? So it's a deep existing partnership. You don't know that this couldn't be, this isn't deep. It could be a super deep integration. We could be looking at like Iron Man 4, snap spectacles. And the whole movie could revolve around Iron Man taking off the suit and only using the snap spectacles to stop Thanos for the fifth time in a row. And I just don't believe that as cool as Robert Downey Jr.
51:43is, I don't believe that people are going to spend$2 ,195 on these specs because he is in a brand campaign with them. Whereas I do feel like Kylie could potentially drive well more than$50 million of sales. Totally. Of her. No, 100%. Kylie informs purchases at a very different rate. I'm a fan of Robert Downey Jr. I like his movies, but it's very hard for me to close the loop from like, okay, he looked good and was in this suit. And so I should go buy that suit. It's just such a broken link. And the other thing is like the Metaglasses are a content creation product. Yeah. Like that's their primary function.
52:26And she's a content creator. Kylie is the number one content creator. Yeah, but you're completely discounting the possibility that Avengers 12 could be filmed entirely on the snap spectacles. What do you think about that? It's possible. If it is, it could be worth it. But yes, it's hard to underwrite at$100 million. That's a lot of money. It's not a lot of money for Meta at$1.5 trillion in market cap. It is a lot of money. $1.4. It is a lot of money for Snap, an$8 billion company. Last week's price is not today's price. What's Snap's market cap? 7.2. Snap. 7.2. Not bad. It's only off 5 % in the last five days off of this snap news.
53:09It's down 25 % over the last month, though. It's had a rough go. But I don't know. I like that the product shipped. I like that there's experimentation and competition in the wearables market. And I do think that Christopher Mims is correct that there is an inflection point here, that wearables are this new battleground that a lot of companies are facing. and there's a lot of opportunity with how slow Apple is moving in the category. You can go and potentially win. Like, I mean, just watching your reaction to the Metaglasses launches, it doesn't seem like you're in the category of this is going to get steamrolled by Apple immediately as soon as they launch it.
53:56You're like, they might come in and compete, but they are ceding so much territory. That 80 % maybe goes to 50 % if Apple really succeeds, but it's not going to be a flip overnight because there's so much brand value, so much style, so many partnerships to the silhouettes of the frame. Yeah. And so many learnings on the actually, like what people are using these for. So Snap sitting at 7.18 billion market cap with a projecting 2026 revenue of 6.76 billion. so anyways let me tell you about Codex Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content or automating business workflows Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish new family of models previewing today GPT 5.6 Sol next generation model named after Sol bro?
54:56that's crazy I don't know about that one. Anyways, preview. Do you think that was a$100 million brand deal? It's like Robert Downey Jr.? No, it's named after the celestial bodies. Soul, Luna, and Terra. Cool. And do they go in size? Because I would assume Soul is the biggest, then Terra is the medium, and then Luna is the smallest in terms of the model size. So we're kind of going at large. medium small
55:57Let me pull it up. U.S. government directive, access is limited to only 20 pre-approved companies. 20? That's so small. Which is brutal because our very own Dan Shipper will not be able to do a vibe check on it, at least yet. He's got to get access soon. But a lot of this comes in the back of the distill gate that's happening. Anthropics says Alibaba has distilled, clawed many, many times. And I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold off the back of that API. And it is staggering. It's a true, somebody was like, they professionalized fraud, which seems accurate. And so having really tight control, it makes sense in the distilling world.
56:39It's still very unfortunate. To go back to your other question. So Sol is the frontier model. Terra is a balanced model for efficient everyday work. And then Luna is a fast and affordable model for high volume work. Okay, cool. You had it right. Well, Rockstar Energy Drink founder Russ Savage, what a name. What a name. He put five homes on the market for a combined total of just shy of$300 million in hopes of attracting newly rich buyers right after the SpaceX IPO. He says, people got liquidity and you are my ex-liquidity. You are my ex-liquidity. Buy my incredible properties. So, Rockstar Energy Drink founder and creator and real estate investor is putting five homes he owns in Los Angeles, Aspen, Park City on the market for a combined total of$297 million.
57:34He's betting that a wave of newly rich buyers will be looking for luxury homes. We're entering a new stratosphere of top ed wealth where there's no limit, said Savage, who's been buying, renovating, and selling homes across the country for a decade. Where are they going to buy properties? They're going to want a ski house, and they're going to want a house in the sun. Savage is asking$85 million for a seven-bedroom home on Aspen's Red Mountain in Los Angeles. He's listing two estates, one for$85 million, another for$34 million. Park City, he's listing properties for$55 million and$38 million. Where is he going to live?
58:06Some he's listed before, but others he's putting on the market for the first time since buying them. Paul Benson, one of Savage's listing agents, is already seeing the impact of these anticipated IPOs across the markets he works in, which includes San Francisco and Seattle, People employed by SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic are being approached by banks and funds with upfront investment cash, aiming to lock in early connections with these soon-to-be ultra-wealthy clients. Because newer construction luxury homes have already been selling well, this will put further strain on supply, and I believe it will drive up prices, he says.
58:39Savage is also betting on the economy, believing it will be strengthened by peace deals. He's long America, falling interest rates, and a stock market that continues to hit record highs. Savage, 56, sold his beverage brand to PepsiCo for around$4.7 billion in 2020 and lives in Florida. He started investing in high-end real estate after he founded Rockstar Energy in 2001. He said buying luxury homes, redoing them, and living in them until he decides to move somewhere else. He was formerly named Russ Wiener, but took the name Savage in honor of his father, political commentator. Michael Savage? Wait, what do you mean took the name in honor of his father?
59:26Michael Savage. Michael Allen Wiener, born 1942, is known by his professional name, Michael Savage. He's an American author, political commentator, and activist, former radio host. He's best known as the host of the Savage Nation, an nationally syndicated talk show that aired on the talk radio network across the United States until 2021, was the second most listened to radio talk show in the country with an audience of over 20 million listeners. Wow. He's sold books. Yeah. Dr. Michael Savage has a PhD in nutrition science. He's conservative. He has two children. He's still alive. And his son is Russell Golden Cloud Wiener, who now goes by Russ Savage.
1:00:15That is crazy. What an insane. So his name now is Russ Golden Cloud Savage. He really created a golden cloud with his company. He started Rockstar in 2001. What is this? Golden packaging. Rockstar Energy Drinks. Yeah, it was golden. It was golden. Or it is. He's also the founder and CEO of his own company. He was, oh, you just barely snuck in the Forbes list of 500 richest Americans. He's number 494 with an estimated net worth of$3.4 billion. In 2025, his estimated net worth is$5 billion. He's done fantastically. This is very interesting. He bought the West Hollywood home of basketball player Carlos Boozer for$10 million, listed another home.
1:01:00He lives in Delray Beach. Fascinating. Well, good luck to him. Hopefully, if you have some SpaceX liquidity, you can go pick one of these up. They all look fantastic. and he's certainly done a great job. Let's work on getting Russ on the show. I would say Nick. He's an absolute savage. I would say Nick, work on it, but somebody is not in the Ultradome today. If you're trying to build luxury properties, you got to know that there's going to be a small group of hungry savages coming after you. Cursors,$60 billion SpaceX deal. It prices off of the seven-day weighted average average of the SpaceX closing price before close the lower the SpaceX stock the more SpaceX for cursor holders the deal was announced with SpaceX at $211 per share now.
1:01:51It's at 155 but very stable today at 152 Cursor holders are rooting for the stock to keep falling until close Somewhat I can't imagine that they're rooting for it to go down all that match But all that much but that is an interesting dynamic that's playing out Also SpaceX is eyeing a bond sale for the history books and the Financial Times doesn't like it All the ans the insurer they sounding the alarm SpaceX is green light for 52 or for 25 billion dollar bond sale is a clear sign of bubble territory I mean at the same time they got what 80 billion dollars in cash on the balance sheet at this point seems like a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, but let's hear the bear take from Allianz.
1:02:40SpaceX decision to launch a$25 billion bond sale shortly after raising$86 billion in a record-breaking IPO is a clear sign that the markets are entering bubble territory. Uh-oh. The investment chief at insurance group Allianz has warned. Big investors have grown increasingly nervous that companies rushing to raise money in a flurry of big equity and bond deals, seizing on record high stock prices and credit spreads close to the tightest in decades could signal a top in frothy markets. SpaceX raising debt so soon after a blockbuster equity issuance was a good example of markets shifting from healthy boom, a stretch boom into bubble territory, said the chief investment officer at Allianz, which manages 800 billion of assets.
1:03:23Elon is hoovering up. He really is. Cash. Someone else was saying, how is X money paying a 6 % yield. People have learned to ask, where's the yield coming from? But of course, X.com, the space company, whatever cash that they have deposited in X money, I'm sure they're able to use that to build infrastructure. No, no. That is the thesis there. And I'd be very interested. They said it's up to$10 million is insured, 6 % yield. That's higher than Cash App and many of the other online. You confirmed that up to$10 million? This was in the tweet announcing it. I don't know exactly what level of insurance.
1:04:11Wow, so they actually are, this is not just like. They said insure. I didn't see FDIC insured. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, but that signals that they're not viewing this as like, oh, this is just like a perk to get consumer. Yeah, oh put in a thousand bucks. It's like no like random investors can be like wait I'm earning 4 % in my bond account with my bank I should move this over to X money and just get the 6 % there's a lot of Yield hunters and credit card points maxers who just are always hunting for oh this this account gives me a good rate of return and you know Where is the yield coming from? It's a different equation when you have a hundred billion dollars on the balance sheet seems like you can make all the discussions over bubble territory or overvalued, but at the same time, like you're at the top of the cap table of a really well capitalized company.
1:05:01And so you're probably going to get that yield. At the same time, SpaceX is going to potentially raise billions of dollars through this. If for every hundred people that put in$10 million and clipped that 6 % coupon, they get a billion dollars. So could you imagine a Thousand people signing up for that putting 10 million in getting 6 % And then that's a 10 billion dollar incremental raise for SpaceX. That seems pretty doable That doesn't seem like crazy math to me It's a very different go direct strategy We've seen other hyperscalers Issue corporate debt at those rates below those rates around those rates.
1:05:41So it doesn't seem crazy It's just interesting that it's going through this direct channel for the first time as opposed to the more traditional Wall Street path But the Wall Street path they're complaining so go direct. I guess that's the strategy Anyway minute mula says are we done talking about AI restrictions? I feel that's I feel like that's low-key a big deal Yeah, we have some pieces in here about it. We'll go through this First let me tell you about CrowdStrike your business is AI their business is securing it CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches There's there's more data center backlash data centers.
1:06:15How do they work? Theo Vaughn says nobody wants a data center, dude And the people that want them to me they seem kind of evil. Nobody wants this One of these companies gonna own all this information. He had some very funny takes about emotional credit score emotional credit score would be weird Yes, the data center issue needs to be messaged much more clearly and And and I think there's such a wide gap is water the power I'm assuming he starts this way, but then he says, I'm going to be switching to distributing my podcast on CD. That's such a bad counter take because truly, like the data centers that are required to power the YouTube and podcast stream, it's like so, so small compared to what AI is doing in terms of data center construction and the power requirements and the build out requirements.
1:07:07I mean, like you fire off one AI agent and you're using like, it's equivalent to YouTube for like 10 years probably. But yes, you know, the internet powers lots of things. But people have to understand the benefits and the value of these things unless otherwise they're just like, why? Why don't we just use the data centers we have? Why do we need new ones? And then they also need to be constructed in remote locations, away from housing, quietly, with clean energy, with, you know, not with the closed loop water system. Like there's a bunch of boxes that if you check them, people will be OK with it.
1:07:43But it's certainly slow to actually build up the narrative. Amir over at The Information has a little bit of a narrative violation. AI data centers apparently are a godsend for some communities and produce a lot of jobs. Union leaders are saying they're great. For instance, three large Wisconsin data center campuses, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle are building. They're supporting almost 10 ,000 jobs during the building phase, which began in 2020 and last through 2028, according to Mandala Partners. When they are fully operational, the facilities will support 6 ,000 permanent jobs. Nearly a third will be in-house, highly skilled roles, including 770 technicians managing critical, mechanical, and electrical systems, and 700 data center technicians.
1:08:27The rest are in the supplier network that provides these facilities. And meanwhile, in West Memphis, Mayor Marco McClendon recently told me it was, quote, a stagnant city before Google broke ground last year on a data center just outside its boundaries. The company's investments are now making it easier to recruit other businesses in the city. And also, figuring out the correct tax strategy for the data centers seems to be the next sort of domino to fall. because Virginia has benefited a lot from the data center build out from AWS. And I believe property taxes are like unnaturally low for Virginian residences because the government budget is balanced towards getting revenue from the data center build out that's happened in Virginia.
1:09:14And so they haven't been such a big deal. Anyway, we should move on to other stuff in AI bans. What's going on? There's a Wall Street Journal article we can read through here. OpenAI limits access to new models, citing government security concerns. Company says White House review of AI releases shouldn't become long-term default. Ban on mythos, model remains. OpenAI said it's limiting access to its newest artificial intelligence models after discussions with the Trump administration, but warned that the recent trend of the White House restricting industry activity on national security grounds on a case-by-case basis shouldn't become the norm.
1:09:54The maker of ChatGPT, yeah, I saw a lot of like safety people being like, this is the worst of both worlds. It's not some sort of like broad-reaching apply, you know, just like the rule exists and then everyone can easily comply. It's like the highest touch government intervention and it makes the government have much more power over AI, which is something the safety folks, I think, at least the ones that I saw talking about this, were not a fan of. Yeah, it's also just like, you know, there's the new, it's GLM 5.2 that people are loving. Someone was talking about how they didn't love it in the chat.
1:10:29I don't know what the reviews are. We'll have to talk about it. I don't know. In general, there's been a lot of excitement, a lot of people saying like, hey, I could use this as a daily driver. And all the lab leaders have said open source is like six months behind. And so now we're like approaching six months past like the last jump in paradigm and like massive cyber capabilities. So those cyber capabilities are coming to fruition in the open source world. There's an interesting dynamic between the risk of like bio stuff and cyber stuff. So if you have a model that can hack a system, it can usually patch that system for that hack in far less than six months.
1:11:09Like probably in like an hour. It can see, oh, there's an exploit here. And we ship the code, merged it in. And now that exploit is closed. And so the gap between like finding like you create the hack machine 9000, you can hack everything. But instead you use it for legal reasons, for economic reasons. to patch all the systems, that's great. The problem that I'm worried about now is if there is a world where building the counter, like the good version of something, takes longer than six months. So the example I'll give is in bio. So let's say that you have a next generation model. It's really good at finding viruses that if created would wipe out a ton of people.
1:11:59It's also really good at building early warning detection systems and counteractive, like take this pill and you'll no longer be susceptible to that deadly virus that is now possible. That's fine as long as you continue to roll out the biosecurity initiatives first. You should be good because by the time the open source hacker, nefarious actors, state actors, get access to the bioweapon 9000, you've already patched your society so that you have bio risk security, early detection, all the different medicines that you need to fight back. But if manufacturing all of that and actually deploying the biosecurity, the bio risk, the, the, the, like the good version takes a year, but the frontier is only six months behind.
1:12:51You could wind up in a situation where manufacturing the virus is much shorter than manufacturing the antivirus. Now, I don't know exactly how all of that works, if that's real, what the level of risk is there, but that's, that's maybe a unique problem, especially if It's a situation where you need to make a lot of the antivirus and you only need to make like a small amount of the virus. And so I don't know. I think that is that is that not exactly how it's possible. I don't know. We'll see. We'll need to talk to more people that understand biosecurity risk and and see where this goes. It's also just harder to like to create bioweapons.
1:13:33It's less like you can, you know, with a sufficiently advanced model, you can hack into a corporate database from your laptop. You do need something like a bio lab, which is not nearly as distributed as laptops, which everyone has. Yeah. But it feels like every six months they discover like some like unauthorized bio lab somewhere in the U.S. Totally. That, you know, has a bunch of existing viruses. Yeah. Very concerning. Yeah. Very risky. Well, let's go back to the OpenAI news. OpenAI followed a similar process with versions of GPT 5.5, like cyber, which demonstrated an ability to discover vulnerabilities in software that could be used in cyber attacks.
1:14:15The similar capabilities of Anthropics Mythos models prompted the White House to increase its oversight of the industry and overhaul its light touch approach to AI. There was, of course, that news that the NSA commented that Mythos was able to hack into a bunch of their systems. That was during a red teaming exercise.
1:14:37So they had a red team deliberately try to hack the systems probably from within the network to some degree. Still scary, but not some unintended behavior, which I think is good news. The unprecedented intervention led Anthropic to halt all access to comply with the new rule. Anthropic had previously worked with the administration on a limited rollout of an earlier version of Mythos. And OpenAI said it hoped to make 5.6 generally available in the coming weeks and that the government's current approval process represents a transition period while President Trump's recent executive order on model oversight is implemented.
1:15:12Quote, we don't believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them, the company said in a blog post. We are taking this short-term step because we believe it is the strongest path to broader availability. The latest Anthropic models have been shut down for two weeks. There was some move in prediction markets, which controversial, but very useful sometimes. It seems like Fable might be coming back. The market's like jumping all over the place. So someone seemingly knows something.
1:15:45But it does seem like all of these delays are being worked through actively, especially as the open source frontier advances. It feels less and less reasonable to keep closed source models locked away. Well, why is the open source model frontier advancing? It's because the models are widely available. Well, is that what's going on? Because... Distillation. Yeah. Like a minute in the chat says, I think we're headed toward a future where frontier models will just be completely cut off from everyone else. National security asset treatment, no distillation from anyone allowed. Like if you make these models available, like clearly if you make the models available through everyday consumer subscriptions, there will be groups that will create networks of thousands of accounts and distill the models.
1:16:35And then you're giving away this like advanced capability. um now now whether whether or not that causes like you know these sort of like doomsday scenarios um it's on you know not not entirely clear but it's clear that um the open source you know frontier uh will just you know continue to lag the the closed source frontier until the distillation problem is solved. Yeah. I was listening to Ian Bremmer on the foreign policy podcast. He just wrote a piece about the Bremenator. We got to have him on. He's fantastic. But he was pointing out a problem with the sort of like individually targeted regulation of AI, like Besant brought all the bankers together because America is very strong in the banking sector to address AI, but that doesn't include infrastructure because our global infrastructure is not particularly, like we don't have the largest infrastructure companies in the world.
1:17:45And so we're very like piecemeal on this. And he says that like, he's calling for much more integration between what's happening at commerce and what's happening in the finance world. And then also what's happening in all sorts of different. Do you think Meta's stock would pop if Zuck could go get a preliminary ban on some of their new models. The aura farm of the ban, it does seem to be working. It's too powerful. You've got to ban the next version of Diet Coke. Rigav says, I love these boys-only episodes, classic TBPN. So do we. Yeah. So do we. We might need to run a no interview week. That'd be good.
1:18:23An interview cleanse. Yeah, we could do that. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know where it goes. It's tough because, yeah, like some of that, some of those problems that you identified about the advancing open source frontier mass distillation, that doesn't seem like you can. There's a regulatory solution for it that maintains open access. Like that's the trick. Is it like. Yeah, no, there's a scenario where it's there's only, you know, you have to be. Yeah. only the largest, most trustworthy companies in the world. And that feels like a really dark scenario. You know who did actually push back in an interesting way was Bill Gurley.
1:19:01And he, I mean, he was taking aggressive shots. But one take he had that was somewhat resonant with me was he said, you know, if these models are so smart, can't they detect distillation attacks? And so there is a world where the closed source frontier advances to a point where you can mitigate distillation attacks much more effectively. And instead of a whitelist, you have a ban list. And so you're banning organizations that are trying to distill. But the models are still pretty much widely available. You're still playing whack-a-mole constantly. But you have AGI doing the whack-a-mole. And so you have, you know, the best possible model going around and understanding, wait, that's a weird behavior.
1:19:48Why is that person asking for that, for those tokens over and over and over again? Let's ban them. And maybe the bans are happening all the time on an individual basis. And the ban list is huge. But the allow list is generally available. And so most companies and individuals can just sign up. That would be an interesting outcome. Well, I think we should switch gears and go through the new SoftBank. Yes, a lot of people have been talking about this for a long time Masa kind of tied it up in a bow for everyone. Where do we get started? with Masayoshi Son from SoftBank He he says that the true source of value is all of this golden egg Factory inside you pull up the deck so and just go right from the beginning.
1:20:36Okay, go through the whole thing Okay, let's get it up on the big board group dot soft bank dot Group.softbank, they have a TLD? What? That's a cool TLD. They just own.softbank? Can you just go to www.softbank? We are getting it up on the big board. ASI, Artificial Super Intelligence, JPY 1 Quadrillion. What is SBG? Softbank Group. 50-year life plan. 20s, get acknowledged. You got to wait. The team's pulling it up. You got to wait for. They're working on it. They're working on it. They'll get there. Oh, we updated it. Here we go. Here we go. Pull it up. Yeah, this is good. Next slide. Next slide.
1:21:27All right. So, Ben, if you could read through this while we get set up. No, don't do this. Go to the next one. ASI, artificial super intelligence is happening, baby. You got the stock image of the brain. So notably, I think that this looks like, this doesn't necessarily look like it was generated. I think this is a vintage asset. This is Shutterstock, right? Yeah, this is Shutterstock. I think he's trying to say like, hey, the image models are good, but they're not image super intelligent. Also, that's like 5 ,000 neurons. Like that would do absolutely nothing. That's like worse than like a fly brain if you actually count the connections.
1:22:06Anyway. Some people have said that I have 5 ,000. JPY one quadrillion what's the plan to get to one quad one trillion is out we're going to quads that's the next slide anybody there we go keep going keep going what is SBG keep going I want to see the 50 year of a life plan what is get acknowledged okay finance war chest 40s take on a challenge what is what is the Wikipedia version where it's like rise to power yes yes yes like uh You know, like controversy, downfall. Expansion of power. Anyways, okay, so 30, he's getting his finance war chest. It's early life, rise to power. He didn't even decide to take on.
1:22:50Expansion of power, regime, coup, trial, and execution. So notice here, he didn't even take on a challenge until his 40s. Wow. It's never too late. But he did finance a war chest during his 30s. Yeah, yeah. But that wasn't a challenge for him. I like that 60s hand over business. 50s just fully complete the business. Complete. Job's finished. The job was finished. Okay, but he hands it over. Hands it over to the next generation, but then go to the next slide. Plot twist. 60. Oh. It's the 60-year life plan. He's not handing it over to the next generation. He is continuing at the reins. Next slide.
1:23:30He wants to realize ASI in his 70s. He's like, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not done yet. The real challenge begins. ASI platform provider, the real challenge begins. Again, not AI generated. This is Shutterstock. He knows it. He goes into PowerPoint manually, picks an image. He's trying to send a signal to the OpenAI team that there's still room for improvement. Constraint on humanity's evolution, intelligence and execution, healthcare, education, research, caregiving, cybersecurity, all good markets. That makes sense. What's the next 30-year vision? bring the brain this is from this is from june 25th 2010 wow so coexistence with intelligence 16 years ago yeah he's getting there asi brain computer physical asi intelligent robots he basically nailed it we got the brain computer ai that answers ais acts workflow automation okay so i'm starting to kind of feel like some of this is ai generated so you can kind of see getting a little bit more AGI pilled as the deck goes on.
1:24:37But he does need a huge amount of credit for calling the shot on ASI a decade before AI 2027. Everyone's like, oh, they nailed it. There's going to be government conflict in mid-2026. That was like a 12-month prediction. This guy was calling a decade. He kind of hyperstitioned it. He did, potentially. That's the manifestation. You were saying this is manifestation for the Bay. Humans will not be replaced. They will evolve through ASI. Okay. Physical AI, robots for high-risk work, rescue from disasters, solve labor shortages. They have the AI model, open AI. Have that semiconductor, ARM, AI infrastructure, and robot.
1:25:19Just robot is the next one. New intelligence. We need to skip to the golden goose. That's the highlight of the slide. Oh, so they're doing a 10-gigawatt Ohio project, 5-gigawatts in France. robot. Yes. Keep going a little bit more, a little bit more, and then wait here. Uh, keep going one more, one more. This one. Oh, the, the text actually looks pretty good on this, on this screen. Uh, on my screen, it's really hard to read, but this is hilarious. Just the level of like, like highlight control you underscore that it's like in terms of like design, like, and, and putting the white text over the white robot, very edgy design consideration.
1:26:01No, he, you know, the slides are funny because it's such a big company and they seem like relatively unsophisticated, but they work. They communicate ideas. They do. In a simple way. Okay, let's keep going. I want to get to the golden goose. Oh, yeah, here we go. Okay. So he's planning for a quadrillion of value or something like that. Okay. Okay. So yeah, 16 years ago, equity of value of holdings, five trillion. The golden gears, five golden eggs. This is such a great, the net debt shareholder value is three eggs. It's such a good metaphor. Goose was not valued. See, this is something people have been saying.
1:26:53People have been saying this has been like a VC talking point on the podcast circuit for a long time. It's nice to see Masa like put it out there But like Anons have been tweeting this for a long time Yeah, well and a lot of VCs realize that the goose was not valued either Yeah, and so they they started raising, you know taking selling secondary It was a lot of LP deck, right? A lot of decks were saying goose note was not valued Yeah, so now LPs are saying hey, I'll buy some of the management company It was kind of like a meme in Silicon Valley people would just say oh Goose was not valued Yeah, we're so early goose was not valued Or yeah, you'd have an exit in your portfolio and people were like, how was it?
1:27:29You'd be like, it was good, but Goose was not valued. Goose was not valued. Goose do not lay eggs. Eggs do not lay eggs. That's the next slide. Eggs do not lay eggs. It was the Goose that created the value. Which is hard to deny. Get up for the Goose. Do we have a clock on the board? No, we got to get a Goose. We got to get a Goose. brutal we got the rest of the farm but we got to get gooses up there shareholder value 15x in 16 years 25x in 16 years they're at 74 trillion what matters is not the eggs it is the goose itself the power to keep laying eggs to keep laying eggs the eggs over the next 16 years he's going to one quad i actually what i actually want to get this like like as a print yeah to put up maybe not in my home but maybe in the garage yep because like the statement what matters is not the eggs it is the goose itself the power to keep laying eggs like if you're going if you're waking up in the morning you go to get in your car you just see that reminder that like it's not about like like the value is in yourself, right?
1:28:46The power to keep laying eggs, right? Sort of like David Goddard's, Jocko Willing. Yeah, having that goose mentality to start the day. Goose maxing. Priceless. Yes. Priceless. The true source of value. I love sprinkling in just like the goose and egg slides with like nav slides, like projections. Like it's very... Keep going. One more. There we go. This is beautiful. The golden egg factory inside the goose. What happened here? Is the true source of value, the golden egg factory inside the goose. So the golden egg factory, of course it's inside the goose. The goose is what lays the eggs. It's an internal mechanism.
1:29:27It's also not a biological process. It's an industrial process. You can see here, it really is like, yeah, it's an internal mechanism in the goose. And you have this sort of like automated conveyor belt producing these ASI eggs. Yeah. ASI are the eggs. It's interesting. Let's go to the next one because I think it kind of clarifies how to understand the market capitalization of SoftBank Group. You know, you need to, he's feeling like, okay, like you're just valuing me for my eggs. Yep. I want you to value me based on my egg value. And my goose value. And my goose value. That's the path to the quadrillion.
1:30:07Yeah. Right? Right. This is something they, they don't teach you this at Harvard Business School. Realizing AI, this is his plan. And it is an optimistic message. Happiness for everyone through ASI. It is funny. I mean, a lot gets lost in translation. He has a very funny aesthetic, but you know, I don't know. I agree with a lot of this. Like the models are good. Stuff is valuable. I don't know. It's very funny to see one of these, some of these slides, but it's a good time. I guess Hoffman group always delivers, always delivers. It's funny. Uh, you have to imagine that there's like someone over there who's been like, maybe we should like punch up the design aesthetics and just like, nah, we got a good thing going.
1:30:51I mean, maybe it's like the Warren Buffett version of like the, the, the Berkshire Hathaway website never needs a, never needs a rebrand. Doesn't need to go with the linear aesthetic at any point in time. Anyway, if you're making a deck and you're taking a different path, you probably want to open up Figma. Agents, meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. Masa, if you're listening, jump on Figma for the next one. We'd love to see it. And not even because we want you to change the aesthetics of your decks or the style or the way ideas are communicated, but purely because it'll make it faster and more efficient for your team.
1:31:27Yes, yes. And you'll be able to collaborate more efficiently. Yes. Anyway, there's... Speaking of decks, Character AI deck from 2021. It's been floating around.
1:31:40Which I guess came out in a lawsuit. Yeah. I wonder why. But this was from 2021, December 8th, a lifetime ago in artificial intelligence. Just five years. It's crazy. Two-year run acquisition by Google. Two years there. Now, GNOME is over at OpenAI. About GNOME. and this is another good deck. Are you seeing this? This has the same, it has the same, it has similar level of aesthetics in the sense that it's like, like very simple in its design. No, the lesson in here and I've always said when working on decks, like if the deck is not compelling when it's black and white and there's not even any visuals inside, the final product, even if designed beautifully, will not be compelling.
1:32:27So like the actual content, the words are what matter most. And here you have Gnome being. Says he's always into AI. Early days of Google, he created the spell checker. Did you mean? First targeting system for AdSense, a topic clustering model, and then other large scale ML systems. Gnome and LLMs. In 2016, he predicted that large neural language models are the future. Wow. Goated. Goal invent critical innovations and make them available to the world guts of the transformer architecture distributed computing strategy High-performance sparsity optimization fast decoding long sequences. He also says the goose was not valued.
1:33:09That's interesting I guess he said that earlier he was talking about in in in 2016 the lack of goose value I mean he said what matters is not the eggs. It is what matters is not the models. It's the It's the architecture. It's the goose itself. Yes. True value is the power to keep making models. Yes. And. But it's so funny. I think this is a dig at OpenAI, but it's also a testament to his contributions. GPT-3, according to several OpenAI employees, OpenAI was directionless, attended Gnome's talk in 2018, took notes and implemented. This became GPT-3, continued to monitor and implement many of Gnome's papers.
1:33:47And he also referenced. So funny. Kevin Lacker says, GPT-3 can't quite pass a coding phone screen, but it's getting closer in 2021. GitHub Copilot based on GPT-3. About Daniel, he talks about other products. And it's just a fun read to see, you know, starting a company. Want to capitalize on future innovations. Left Google a month ago. Lots more inbound interest from top people. Lots of interest from angels and VCs. Taking first seed note. Yeah. Vision capabilities. His use cases are interesting, too. It says, version zero, a million use cases, fun and interesting conversations, companionship, recommendations, foreign language practice, practice social situations, assistive writing.
1:34:28The whole idea with character AI was that you'd be able to pick an individual person to talk to. I remember I demoed it and I was like, I want to talk to Joseph Stalin and try and convince him that capitalism is the best system or something. I wanted to have a debate with the communists. Weren't you successful? No, it was very funny because the base model was so RL'd against communism and all the famine and Russian expansionism that had happened in World War II, that I was very quickly able to convince Stalin that he was bad. Yeah, I know. You were successful. Yeah, I was basically successful.
1:35:07Take full credit. And I was like, that doesn't feel like actually what it would be like. You won the one thing. Yes. And you came out on top. Yes, but it was an unsatisfactory experience because it felt like I was talking to an American sort of LARPing as Stalin instead of like the real Stalin. But it was interesting. Talks about life coaching, customer support, personal assistance, home automation, all things that are coming to real life, either through base models or application layer products on top. The mode is just quality, quality, quality. The best research engineers, the most intelligent products, the highest usage, and large compute cloud.
1:35:42he says it cost one million dollars to train gpt3 smarter model is more expensive company plan buy some gpus evaluating buy versus cloud train gpt3 size model in three weeks total spend 20 million to 30 million in the first year anyway uh lots of fun there where else should we go there's other there's other open ai news i mean the the chip jalapeno launched uh designed with Broadcom. Jalapeno is purpose-built for LLM workloads powering ChatGPG codex, API, future agentic products. Very exciting. Crazy, crazy, crazy timeline here. What? Just how quickly they were able to... Oh, yeah, yeah. A lot of people are saying, like, this is the first chip designed with AI agents in the loop so you can write the instructions set much quicker.
1:36:32Sort of unclear exactly. You got to give a lot of credit to the humans on both sides. But it is just cool because for a long time it was like, oh, it'll take five years to launch a chip, and now companies are clearly doing it faster, and so the go-to-market cycle is tightening for a variety of reasons. Also, apparently, OpenAI made deals to purchase 40 % of the global raw, undiced DRAM wafer output until 2029. Millions of raw DRAM wafers that cannot be used until they're processed. Paul Buchheit says, smart move going deeper and deeper into the supply chain. always, always interesting moves from the deals guy at the top.
1:37:09Speaking of timelines, people are comparing GTA 6 with the Burj Khalifa. Burj Khalifa was built for$1.5 billion and took six years. Apparently, GTA 6 is$2 billion and it's taking 12 years. But at the same time, people really have said it is the Burj Khalifa video game. It's kind of two Bershkleefas.
1:37:40We are going to have a very special episode on launch day. So I'm looking forward to that. Let me tell you about console. Console builds AI agents that automate 70 % of ITHR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Tell me about this LED lamp. Okay, so Phillips introduced Skylight, a ceiling-mounted LED panel that makes windowless rooms feel like they have a sky-facing window. It uses Signify's Nature Connect tech to create the depth, brightness, and color shifts of natural daylight. Phillips also follows the sun throughout the day, moving from cool, warmer light to warmer evening tones.
1:38:25uh so yeah do you think they can like basically understand your location and where you are and your orientation with the sun to actually uh actually make you know actually like track like where would the sunlight exactly be yeah so uh this got so much hate because the the obvious solution if you don't have sunlight is to go get some walk outside touch grass or just carry a flashlight around uh yeah yeah yeah carry a flashlight around and just point it at your face as is one no if you're if some if you're in a dark room and you want to see something over there point the flashlight at it yeah uh but uh i have uh uh my first apartment yeah i moved after college uh was uh a very at a very funny room it uh the only window in the room opened up to a public courtyard in the apartment building, which made it just completely not a viable window at all.
1:39:23Like, why do you want it? It felt like actually being in a fish tank. It was terrible. Probably would have like enjoyed having one of these. We also are in a wind, a bit of a windowless room here ourselves. So I saw this and I was like, whoa, we should get a bunch of these. And so, yeah, I was, I was, I was seeing all the, all the hate for this and like sort of getting it. But I I think even throughout my life, I've just realized that humans are like advanced cats. We sort of just migrate to where there's some amount of light. Totally. I think the question is, if you're in a building that has these, does it trick your animal brain into feeling like, yes, I'm in a sunlit room, I'm getting the benefits of sunlight?
1:40:09Or will people still try to congregate around the areas with natural light? Yeah, I mean, it seems like an upgrade, even if it's not 100 % of the way there. It's maybe 80 % of the way there, and it feels good. I don't know. How much are these? Do we know yet? I'm very interested to see how much they charge for this. There's some cool stuff here. Let's see what people are saying. I'm prepared to buy 20 of these. I've been looking for something like this since I moved into a cellar. Well, this person, he's obviously joking. I know. It's amazing. 580 USD. Just under$600. $600. Yeah, I think, I don't know.
1:40:55I think that there's a very simple swap out of those can lights, those can LEDs. You know the can LEDs that go into like ceilings? Normally, it's like pretty standard in a modern house. You go and you click a button on the wall and there's just like a bunch of can LEDs. And the alternative to that was like those fluorescent tubes that you see in like old office buildings that was like really bad. But I could imagine just having these, even in rooms with windows, it's probably just a nicer light source than a can light or a fluorescent panel, but probably not a full substitute from a nice window with a view that's actually reality.
1:41:40Yeah. But why not put these all over the place if they look good and they're effective? I bet you must be able to use them as like normal lights at night too, right? Or is it just for taking a somewhat dark space during the day and brightening it up? Yeah, you can use them to trick yourself into thinking it's daytime. Turn it into a casino. Even when you're in a 48-hour video game bender. Yeah, if you want to make your house More like a Las Vegas casino where you can't tell what time it is suck a little bit of the oxygen out They should make an add-on for that reduce the oxygen level and then keep the lights You know, there's that one in Paris or not in Paris.
1:42:21It's called Paris I think in Las Vegas and it has this weird like blue sky that never turn the lights off in So when you walk through the casino, you're just like oh, it feels like 2 p.m. And so you never leave never leave Bernie Sanders is taking shots. Tim Cook. So Apple raised prices on basically everything. They held back on a few devices, but Bernie Sanders is mad about it. He says, corporate greed is Tim Cook, the billionaire CEO of Apple. Not anymore. He's on the way out. Soon to be ex-CEO of Apple, claiming that hiking prices on Apple products by over$200 is unavoidable after it made$112 billion in profit last year and spent$310 billion on stock buybacks.
1:43:09Gabe says, this product is banned from the Ultradome. Can't be giving the boys a sense of time. So we get longer shows. The price hacks aren't unavoidable. They're unacceptable. And so apparently Apple spent$90 billion on stock buybacks in fiscal 2025. But he's like correct. In fact, I think Apple has returned a trillion dollars to shareholders. So my number would actually be north of$310 billion. But we live in a competitive market, and this is an opportunity for other companies. Because if Apple is raising prices, that's a better value prop for a Chromebook or someone else who figures out how to optimize memory and not have a price hike.
1:43:54or I just think like saying that like corporate greed is Tim Cook when the guy's barely clipping 35 a year after taxes it's true is uh rude and unnecessary yeah but the reason is of course like I didn't see Bernie marching on Cupertino when Tim was you know on his run generational run being dramatically underpaid relative many of the other CEOs. So I just think crazy, crazy person to put in your crosshairs. Joe Weisenthal summed it up well. He says, Micron market cap is up$150 billion today. Apple's market cap is down$210 billion. Almost a perfect value reallocation hinging on memory. Memory is expensive, and so everyone is rotating over to Micron from Apple.
1:44:52Here are the actual facts from the Germinator. Apple raises Mac, iPad, home prices to counter memory shortage. The Apple TV got hit hard. It went from like$130 to$200 or$250. So it saw the highest percentage price increase, which is odd because I didn't think that the Apple TV was a particularly memory intensive product, but it's certainly not Apple's core. So maybe they offset a little bit of the pain there. The company is increasing prices of the MacBook Neo, which is the new laptop that was the cheapest MacBook ever made. $500 with the educational discount. The MacBook Pro is going up in price.
1:45:33MacBook Air, iPad Air, iPad Pro. Starting price of the MacBook Neo is rising to$700 from$600. while the MacBook Air is increasing to$1 ,300 from$1 ,100, so a$200 price increase for the MacBook Air. The entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro is moving to$2 ,000 from$1 ,700, while the 11-inch iPad Pro is increasing to$1 ,200 from$1 ,000. iPad Air, a mid-tier tablet, now priced at$750, up from$600. The price hikes are global. And congratulations to Ben Thompson lost his bet to John Gruber. Gruber won. They had a bet over whether or not Apple would raise prices due to all of the memory price spikes. The CEO Micron was sort of like hinting at some basically negotiations that had happened years ago.
1:46:33Apple is very aggressive in their supplier negotiations. And he was basically insinuating that it was like Apple's like very sort of aggressive negotiating that made it impossible for Micron to be reinvesting in increasing production. I think this was like in like 2021. Yeah. So anyways, complicated. Interesting. Well, gamers are already mad at AI about driving up the price of GPUs and memory, and now you will have the Apple fanboys potentially upset as well. So, I don't know, Bernie, why not, you know, some subsidies? Subsidize Apple. Keep those prices down. No. The answer is obviously to build more, build more capacity, build more memory, bring the price down, let the market clear as quickly as possible.
1:47:28Micron, of course, is a trillion-dollar company headquartered in Boise, Idaho. Very cool. We got to talk about small trucks. Small trucks? It's time to talk about small trucks. Okay. First, let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that lets you grow with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in-store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. Trucks. Trucks. Before we talk about the Slate truck, we got to talk about Rio Industries. started in 19 this is the week of this is maybe the year of the small truck Rio Industries started in 1905 reborn in 2026 they are undercutting the slate they're starting they're starting at $21 ,500 for a four cylinder gas engine they heard you John this whole week John's been thinking man that slate truck is awesome but what if it had a gas engine?
1:48:29They're coming out. It's a four-cylinder gas engine, manual and automatic transition, body on frame, four-wheel drive, 600-mile tank. Wow, they have their head-to-head with the Slate truck right here. Texas built. Yeah. Texas built. So it's the Texan response to the Slate truck. Not a lot of other information, but Slate... If you scroll down on the website, you can see that there's a how it stacks up, the Rio runabout versus the Ford Maverick versus the Slade truck. They claim to be cheaper, more proven with their gas engine. Yeah, so haters and critics. 600 miles on a tank. Haters and critics of the small truck boom are pointing to the.
1:49:14Are you trying to get Brandon's attention? Yeah, Brandon is not in the room anymore, I guess. Bring him in here. Oh, he had to run. He's scared. Yeah, he's scared to have this conversation on air. but yeah the haters and critics of the small truck boom are saying the Ford Maverick XL already exists it has a lot of the bells and whistles what is the Ford is the Ford Maverick XL four-door yeah right must be I think the Ford Maverick in general is a four-door right because every two-door truck has failed there are no successful two-door trucks two doors is something people think they want. They look at it.
1:49:56They say, oh, that's so compact. That's so easy. And then they realize that they will want to easily put their family in the back without sliding the seats forward. And so the demand just never shows up. And everything winds up being four doors. And that's why you get these weird things. I think the bed is so small. You can't really say they've all failed. Because the Ford Ranger was produced for many, many, many years. It's a two-door truck. My grandpa. It's not around anymore. Well, it's around. As a four-door. No, it's around. As a two-door? My dad still owns my grandpa's old truck. I don't know.
1:50:32It still runs perfectly. I mean, are they still selling them? They produced the first-gen Ranger from 1983 to 1992. A successful vehicle like the E-Class Mercedes is still on sale. Like what, 50 years later, right? The BMW 5 Series is still on sale. Like certain cars, they go through iterations, they have facelifts and new designs, but they stay around. I'm seeing hundreds of two-door. You're looking at used cars. That doesn't count. I'm talking about a company that's been in the market and decided, yes, it makes sense to keep this in the model lineup for the next revision instead of going only four doors.
1:51:08And so that is the problem that a lot of these cars will see. There's a lot of demand, a lot of stated preference, but the revealed preference is always for the four-door configuration, at least in America. I do think that there might be something interesting with shortening the nose. It's a very odd aesthetic decision. But if you actually want a small truck with four doors and a full-size bed and you're going electric, you could, in theory, remove the front engine, the front trunk, and push the cab much further forward. It would look a lot more like a bus. People would probably not like the aesthetics.
1:51:43but in terms of functionality, you kind of get everything you want there because the front area of a Rivian truck is kind of doing nothing. Like it's a nice extra storage space and they put a bunch of equipment there, but that equipment can be distributed throughout the rest of the vehicle. But I don't know. It would be a big uphill battle to make that look cool because it would look like a Volkswagen. Yeah, so the slate. So the bare case for the slate is twofold. Maverick XL already exists. Yep. and it's 27 grand. The slate is sort of bundling in, I think, some of the taxes and like fees into their price.
1:52:21So it's not an entirely fair comparison. But they're doing a lot of stuff really well. I think the way that they take basically one SKU and make it so customizable that it can feel like an SUV, it can feel like a Jeep, it can feel, you know, It can feel like a basic truck.
1:52:46All I can say in terms of how successful this will be is I think I'll get one just because it seems like a fun car to drive around on the weekend. And there's just like a bunch of fun. Are you going to go track only? I wish they had a track only. It's just an extra$400 ,000. And yeah, so who knows how. Just start with a 25K base and then add a$400 ,000 track only package. Who knows how this will go, but I think that the infinite customization so that people can make it feel fun. It's a very cool company. It's very cool. Yeah, make it feel really like their own. And the wraps are like$1 ,000 or something.
1:53:28They will be sort of nickel and diming you, but it's truly just a nickel and just a dime to add a different feature. And so you can probably go crazy in the configurator and wind up with a whole bunch of add-ons. But the fact that you can pick exactly what you want, much more fun buying experience. You can create something really interesting. You can also add on incrementally. I believe you can buy the truck and then upgrade to the SUV seating arrangement later. And you don't necessarily need to do that on day one. So you can sort of walk, crawl, run. What is the range on this truck? 200-ish. Wow.
1:54:04Brandon Gurell in shambles. He was spreading fake news. So Brandon came in this morning. It's 45 miles of range. And I was like, it can't possibly be 45 miles. He said it's only 200 if you're pushing it after 90 miles. Oh, yeah. He said 90. And I said, no, it's at 200. I don't know if it was ever 90. But 200 is plenty for a daily commute in a normal city. Also, just for going around quick errands. It's not going to cost you anything. You're going to charge it. Seems fine. I don't think that demand for the 300 plus range, a lot of people who are in that category, this won't be their only vehicle.
1:54:41They'll have a gas engine that basically has unlimited range, right? Yeah. But this can be - And you're, I mean, you're basically going to hold off on any real judgment until we get its time on the green hell. Yes, that's very key. So we'll see there. My only thing with the slate is like, I actually think the actual customization software on the website is like very janky. and I find it very hard to seamlessly actually design different styles. Interesting. Ford is doing... So it feels like they did like the hard... They're what? Ford is doing a$30 ,000 electric pickup truck next year. It'll have four doors, probably longer range, faster charging, and it'll definitely have more like power windows default, speaker standard, like a bunch of just the basics that you get from like the Ford platform.
1:55:29so there's a question about that the hybrid maverick also starts at 30k so um interesting challenge i think it's cool i think the best thing about it is that it's just a fresh design it looks very cool i think it's a unique choice and people can have a lot of fun with it and uh and just sort of like experiment with a new thing but it does seem like a brutally brutally competitive space and it's a little bit, I don't know, there's something about this where when I see a new Chinese EV, I see them breaking constraints in like crazy, crazy ways where you're getting like supercar performance for$50 ,000 or some ultra luxury, like it looks like a Rolls-Royce Cullinan but it's 70K and there's some real crazy innovations going on inside.
1:56:20this is a different sort of simple uh more much more simpler utilitarian take i think it looks cool though and i like that there's so much optionality there it feels like an interesting interesting play i really hope it's successful yeah i'm interested right now i can see it as kind of like a leisure like weekender car at least in my own life i'm interested if they can crack the like first car market, right? They are competing with the Tesla Model 3, which is like, you know, 12-ish K over what the slate is set to start at. Tesla Model 3, you're getting, you know, self-driving, more range, arguably more function for a lot of people's like daily use.
1:57:06A lot of people, you know, like the idea of having a truck, but only use the truck bed, you know, twice a year. something like that so like you said competitive but uh i'm excited for it Going to micro center now feels like going to a jewelry store says says take him because everything's so expensive wow four thousand dollars for a cutting-edge geforce gaming graphics card that is a lot of money used to be over like going up in 600 800 dollars for a graphics card was like oh you're you're paying big money now it's real big money i thought it was funny that the ac in europe debate really kicked off right when we when we landed we were experiencing it and right as we landed we were we were asking like talking with chat like okay so like is it is it like why isn't it why isn't it more popular at this point and there were not a lot of great uh great reasons i was thinking huge opportunity to start the air conditioning company of europe that'd be good uh i'm normally against that naming structure but uh yeah you're gonna i kind of like it here you have to lobby macron or something because isn't there a law that says you can't air condition a building to less than like 79 degrees i think that's like a government building oh okay public spaces so if you're in a government imagine imagine odd that there's not imagine you're at your office job you know working on like the you know uh blocking ai in europe and you're just sitting there at your computer and it's 79 degrees is there no environmentally friendly refrigerant out there?
1:58:53Because you have to imagine that you could have cheap solar panels powering AC in a building and have a pretty good business, sort of like solar city for AC or something all across France. It's just odd that the market hasn't like solved that in some way, since I would imagine the demand would be very high. But I don't know, maybe if you just grow up without AC you never demand you never long for it who knows anyway on you air conditioning was the most important invention for us perhaps one of the signal inventions of history it changed the nature of civilization by making development possible in the tropics without air conditioning you can only work in the cool early morning hours or at dusk the first thing I did upon becoming prime minister was to install air conditioners in buildings where civil service worked.
1:59:39This was key to public efficiency. People start to struggle indoors once indoor temperatures exceed 73 degrees. Yeah, 72 is perfect. Sleep efficiency goes down. Sleep duration goes down. Work productivity goes down. School learning goes down. Wow. Really, really crazy. Patrick Collison is chiming in. Also, Patrick Collison funded a cure for the flu. This is going to be as big as the cancer thing? The tech industry really needs to do this right now. Yes, yes, yes. You need a win that is like broadly understood. Yeah, I think it's Stripe, OpenAI, Anthropic, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, and Bill Gates are putting$500 million into funding a new organization called Intercept.
2:00:23Intercept's goal is to prevent the common cold and the flu and eventually eliminate all respiratory viruses completely. Incredibly cool project. incredibly, yeah, just like an incredibly cool, like tangible thing. I saw a stat that, I saw this chart of how many, it was like, what percentage of weeks are parents sick with something viral generally, as a function of how many kids they have? And it's like a fast takeoff curve. So it's like one kid and you're sick, like 25 % of the year, you have like some virus in your system, a cold, a flu, something. And then as you get to like two, three, four kids, it ramps to like 50 % of the year, you are sick.
2:01:08And people will feel that if they're like, yes, I'm getting less sick. It's working. Yeah. When the podcast optimizers that struggle to have two drinks and continue podcasting, they are so woefully unprepared for having children. Fortunately, most podcasters, you know, don't have, they don't tend to go down that path of having families.
2:01:41But if they did, we could potentially see the strategic podcast reserve decline meaningfully just because, you know, if you're sick half of the year. I remember for some reason it was like it felt the worst when we first started the show and between us we had I guess we had five kids at the time blow my nose yeah okay back to that yeah so with five kids it's like okay one of the kids is always sick perpetually and then that means one of us is either like sick or starting to get sick and then I just be one we'd be looking across the table at each other being like i've got maybe 36 hours until i'm feeling the exact same thing here's a hack from tyler he says he has three kids just sauna every day 24 minutes at 205 degrees that's some serious sonic our sauna does not go that high right now and i don't know if i'm putting 25 minutes i it's good i haven't hacked my sauna to be able to go that high yeah you gotta over Yeah, anyway, I bet this James Bond inspired spec mansion has a sauna in it.
2:02:56It's listing for$85 million, spanning roughly 23 ,000 feet. Villa Skyfall features a glass-walled auto gallery, a wellness center, and a Himalayan salt room, 95-foot-long pool. Give me a review. Is this loud opulence? Is this you? Would you ever live here? Would you raise a family here, or is it too over the top? It does look like Minecraft a little bit real estate developer Aldo Stark is so much of a James Bond fanatic that 007 influences everything from the way he dresses the cars he drives I don't think there's a week in my life. I don't play a James Bond movie real cinephile. I like that There was a fitting that stark's latest spec project in Delray Beach was inspired by Skyfall both the 2012 movie and the fictional spy characters childhood home in Scotland I seem to remember in Skyfall, the home in Scotland is not like this at all.
2:03:50Isn't it abandoned? It's like really dark. It's like a cottage, right? Okay, I don't get that at all. Anyway. Yeah, I mean, amazing option for a supervillain that wants to move to Florida. It does feel like a supervillain. Pull up an image of the, yeah, any of this feels very, very supervillain. If you were running like a gambling, like children's mind poisoning company, this could be. The walls and the ceilings are covered with wood, backlit onyx and rare stone or glass. The house also has a salon inspired by Parisian Cartier boutique and a glass walled auto gallery and a rainforest inspired wellness center.
2:04:26The wellness center sounds cool, but it's a lot. It's got a lot going. A lot of reflections. It feels very bright. I feel like I'd need like sunglasses in here. Outside, there's a 95 foot long pool, waterfall. fire features plus putting green pickleball soccer field cabanas and botanical gardens there's something to see everywhere it's quite a sensory overload he says this i like it okay i agree with him at least he's calling he's playing he's not trying to he's not trying to lie to everyone uh design homes he runs it with his wife bought a 2.5 i think this might be the kind of space that is uh actually nice nicer to be in like it it will feel better in person than in the pictures like sometimes it's inverted where the pictures look amazing and then because they've like you know yeah the lighting is like perfect but uh with these this doesn't feel with these images it just feels like it feels like a lvmh like yeah it feels like this is a house if you're like throwing parties professionally your entire world organizes around like these large dinner parties and celebrations and you have the new year's eve party i do love this i do love this uh this this sunken uh sunken conversation there's a lot of fireplace that's very cool if you scroll down to the front uh this looks particularly minecrafty with this uh waterfall coming out here yeah look at that photo jordy that is minecraft central it's very in there we go doesn't that look like honestly i would just i would it needs like it needs way more uh like a much bigger waterfall yeah like i want to i want to see the equivalent of like 20 fire hoses just like shooting water out wait huge news apple vision pro and smart glasses chief is leaving for open ai's hardware division this is literally this is my christmas this is amazing i everyone's like oh he's chopped i'm like no i've never really felt developers ever i've never I never really felt like we were in a simulation until now.
2:06:28Vision, autism capital is a vision bros right now. We can't keep getting away with this. It's so good. That is very exciting. Scoop from Mark Gurman. What a lovely scoop. Anyway. It's literally Christmas for John. Christmas for John. Malibu Mansion, seen in the OC in Austin Powers, asks$90 million. It's on the cliff. You got to tell me. This is in Point Doom, nine bedrooms, 20 vehicle garage. and 176 feet of bluff frontage. So explain to me the bluff dynamic because this feels like you're not just going to walk out on the beach. So how do you actually go enjoy the ocean other than just looking at it?
2:07:09They're like very, very, very close to this is a path that just takes you down to the beach. All I will say about this property is every time I'm surfing below this, I look up and think damn that house is not not long for this world because it's really like you can just see that like oh you think it's gonna fall off the cliff or not really I mean clearly there's plenty of backyard yeah and it but but but uh the erosion does seem the erosion is over is years yeah it's more so that you're gonna just have to like probably change the backyard but But then once somebody starts changing it, then like Coastal would get involved and they would probably make you change it pretty drastically.
2:07:53But every day you wake up and you're like, I'm defying Mother Nature. I'm challenging God. And that is empowering in a certain way. For some people. Yeah, you wake up thinking like, I am Icarus and I will be flying close to the sun today. And that's got to be inspiring. That's a certain vibe. You wake up in the James Bond house, you think you're James Bond. You wake up in this house and you think, I'm tempting fate. And that's inspiring. You saw the 85-year-old man was arrested after allegedly street racing at over 100 miles per hour in a sports car while smoking a cigarito. When confronted, he reportedly told police he was just having a little ride in my favorite car.
2:08:34Okay. What's the charge, officer? Having a little ride in my favorite car? That's very good. oh man i hope this story is uh true seems a little too good to be after winning millions on draft kings we mentioned earlier he built a mansion with a bowling alley texas home of michael cohen who won the millionaire maker fantasy sports tournament multiple times has hidden rooms in a creepy library according to him he recalls what makes a library creepy let's find out the first time michael cohen won one million dollars on sports betting site draft kings in 2015 he's the meme he's like you know 99 of sports betters quit right before they hit it big he's the one who dug until he hit the diamonds skill issue tell us send this to soccer and jetty it's not a luck issue luck issue that's true um he hired okay so he wins a million dollars in 20 2015 he's having a wedding he wants some musical talent who does he hire to come play his wedding Jordy Lil Flip rapper Lil Flip never heard of him no big in big in the Texas scene I believe and then he wins another million dollars in 2017 two years later he buys a Tesla Model S that's a pretty like reasonable thing if you win a million bucks buying a Model S feels like sort of responsible I don't know it doesn't seem crazy but then third win in 2019 stock trader bought 14 acres on a private street in the suburbs of Houston and built a 14 ,700 square foot home.
2:10:04What are you laughing at? Techno chief says send this to Sager. Is that gold? Inspiring. Inspiring. Sager. I don't know. Sager is going to pretend that this never got public. Yeah. He's going to pretend this is not a real story. Inspiring story of gambling gone right. It's kind of a go big or go home kind of attitude, said Michael, 43. let's flip to M8 and keep reading this there's some funny quips in here he says he says he has won one million dollars or more in two subsequent DraftKings contests, he just keeps winning, it's crazy if you are going to have your own street, you might as well have a big ass theater and you might as well have a bowling alley, this is his quote to the journal before moving in is this some sneaky content marketing from DraftKings?
2:10:54Do they have this guy win two of these contests? What are the odds of winning two of these random little contests and then going on this crazy press tour? He won in 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, and 2024. He's estimated he's won over$6 million on DraftKings over the years. His approach to sports betting is analytical, not emotional. I think we actually should send this to Sager, and he should do an investigative deep dive in this because it seems like a little too heartwarming to be gambling that long and just winning on seemingly random sweepstakes style things. It's not like he's... If he was playing games of skill, they would have banned him.
2:11:42It is a game of skill. Wait, no, it's fantasy sports. That's locked, right? Where is that skill? Is that skill? Is it regulated as a skill game? I think it is. I think fantasy sports is regulated as a skill. It's not pure luck. Do you think that he's so good, but he loves attention? And so DraftKings was like, keep letting him win so that he goes on this press tour. Maybe, maybe. Heartwarming story, local man. It's potentially true. Achieves financial freedom through fantasy sports. Off the kitchen and living room is an entertainment wing, which their designer dubbed the Dave and Buster's wing.
2:12:17it has a massive kitchen a theater with a room for 180 inch projector screen and a two-lane bowling alley there's a room with outlets for arcade or vending machines the house has an elevator shaft should someone want to add one interesting you put in the shaft before you put in the elevator why not just do the elevator apparently home elevators are incredibly dangerous it's a huge source of uh of of of uh risk to your health be careful not for this guy He does not have luck issues. He has good luck, I guess. I'll just sometimes make a joke and then somehow it becomes reality. In the Dave & Buster's wing, there's a bar with a pass-through window that opens to the outdoor pool area.
2:12:56If you're going to have a party, you're going to have a party, right? Might as well do it right. The house has several hidden rooms, including a safe room. In the dining room, a hidden door and hallway lead to a room. Cohen calls a creepy library. There's actually nothing creepy about it said the listing agent listing agents like hey, can you cool it with the weird lingo? He has a very expensive tree house. You could be drinking cognac out of water for crystal smoking cigars on Chesterfield couch Anyway, I don't know He said whoever buys the property will be someone local potentially an athlete or celebrity if someone wanted an even larger home They could easily add another 3 ,000 square is he selling the home to put it all on black?
2:13:41Maybe. Maybe. Mr. Beast is hiring a senior ML AI engineer in San Francisco. Peter Wildford says, I locked 100 AI researchers in a data center until they solved alignment. Absolute banger. That would be a good. That would potentially be his biggest video ever. People talk about the need for new media and tech. Maybe that's the final boss when Mr. Beast gets into it. What else is going on? Less, a much more sad story, Ohm Malik. Oh yeah, Malik, from GigaOhm. This was like right around TechCrunch, The Verge. When I got to Silicon Valley, GigaOhm was like a source of incredible takes and analysis around technology and startups, beloved in the venture community, and he passed away very sadly.
2:14:31Hodinkee wrote in loving memory of Ohm Malik, friend, writer, venture capitalist, And ever the believer, Benjamin Clymer wrote a really nice piece. I never had the pleasure of meeting him, but he clearly touched a lot of lives. Okay. Let's move over to Figma News. They're hosting Config 2026. We couldn't be there because we were traveling, but there's this crazy launch Figma Motion Design. It took this individual four and a half seconds to make this and really, really cool for if you've done motion design, you know how long it takes to hang out in After Effects. Even just having a starting point, something to tweak, something to build off of.
2:15:25Who knows if you're going to be able to completely one shot it or you want to do more and inject your own taste to stand out. But I thought this was a very very cool launch and something I would love to put to work in adding Overlays to our YouTube shorts something like that could be very very cool There's been a few of these products that are very very interesting. Let's pull up this video of Elon telling Lex about being the world's first Trillionaire, I know what you're gonna post and this is so silly. This is the impression This is the impression Tyler's not in the studio today So the app is falling apart And won't load Ridiculous Should we skip it?
2:16:10Yeah, we can skip it We can move on to this watch It's about that time Says Cheapy 13 This watch would Don't you think this watch would actually be cool If it just told the hour hand and the glass And the tab moved around in a circle Like that would be possible, right? Anything's possible I think that's cool. And then at noon, it's beer o 'clock and you can pop it open. I was just thinking it was like it was only good to make the sound once. You just kept it on in case you needed any sort of strategic moment. But I think this is a good place to end the show. Yeah, sounds good. It has been an honor and a privilege.
2:16:54Yeah, it's been great. And I can't wait for Monday. Five shows. at least more? Four. We have a day off tomorrow? Or next week? Oh, 4th of July maybe? Oh yeah, 4th of July we'll be off Friday. We have a light show on Thursday so we'll be hanging out. Anyway, leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sign up for a newsletter at tbpn.com and we will see you on Monday. Have a wonderful weekend. Goodbye. We love you.
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