New OpenAI Competitor, Airbus vs Boeing, LVMH and Trump, Meme Coins are Cooked

40:28Um, you know, we talk about drones, we talk about, uh, you know, DJI versus GoPro. We talk about, um, you know, all sorts of hardware stuff, Unitree versus Boston dynamics, all these different things that could, could, or the Tesla optimist uh but what like you know like a lot of these i was looking at like you know swiss watches versus american watches like there's one guy who makes bespoke watches really in america you're on the list you should actually make sure you're on here i really should get on the list because it's going to be like yeah it's rgw or rgm i think rgm uh out in pennsylvania and then there's hamilton which is like a great and historical organization but they're not at the same level as the swiss guys so it's like if you tax that it's like patek vacheron and uh and ademar piguet are still like they're only games in town at that level and i'm and i'm wondering like if all of a sudden louis vuitton is more expensive what is more competitive in america like yeah do we just start rebuilding maybe it'd be an opportunity for an american uh new luxury line to pop up the thing about luxury though is it takes a hundred years to actually build a luxury brand where whereas whereas if an american entrepreneur came out today and was like i have a drone that's just as good as a dji not even better just the same same price we're price competitive and and i would buy that one obviously but right now it's like okay if i need a drone like it has to work i have to go with dji yeah because the opportunity the other the other one is one from America that doesn't work and costs twice as much.

42:08Anyway, let's move on. The article mentions China. LVMH is counting on strong US demand to power its growth in the coming years after sales in China, the second biggest market plunged around 20 % last year. And you were telling me something about that. It tracked with iPhone sales perfectly, right? So many luxury product companies had been dependent on China for the vast majority of their growth over the past decade and that just like slammed basically to a halt it's contracting now um that has to do with like economic issues in china also the chinese consumer kind of like finding their way and there being actual consumer brands in china that are starting to be compelling yeah to people locally but um but yeah uh there's caring group whose sales were down like 30 percent or something like that so in china in china okay uh that's interesting uh i'd love to know how lvmh is doing over the past year to 10 years, if you could look that up on public.

43:05But there's some interesting information here. LVMH operates 14 factories in the United States already, and is planning to pump more money into Tiffany, the iconic American jeweler it acquired in 2021. Yeah. So in 2024, carrying sales in Asia Pacific, including China declined 30 % due to weakened demand. And so there's, there's this kind of caught people off guard to some degree, because there's a bunch of stores that are already like badged, like have the branding of whatever, you know, sort of luxury brand is going in there and just nobody's moving in or, or they're open and like people just aren't coming through.

43:39So really tough, you know, scenario right there. Apple's having the same issues. Their sales are down almost double digits as of last year in China. And again, part of the reason for that is that the iPhone in China is more of a luxury product than it is a utility. And we talked about this yesterday off the show, but Apple has huge advantages in the US. They have their moats, which is like messaging, payments, the developer ecosystem. They don't have that in China because of WeChat and these sort of super apps. And so somebody can just trade for a cheaper phone and get like 99 % of the utility that they would get from an iPhone.

44:18Whereas if you go off iPhone right now, it's like you're losing your iPhoto storage, you're using all your group chats you're losing your account bunch of apps like you're not you're gonna won't work anymore so it is very you're very locked in uh so this is fun he he went to the inauguration ceremony and sat next to bezos and musk who he's been like going up and down as the richest man he recently was knocked off and elon is the richest one now um but he was flanked by his wife and two of his five children who would refuse an invitation from the president of the United States to attend their inauguration, Arnaud told reporters.

44:55Besides, I've had a longstanding relationship with him. Like we're best buds. I love him, which is probably true. This article is based on interviews. Arnaud first crossed paths with Trump when the Frenchman was living in New York in the early 1980s. Arnaud had left France after the election of Francois Mitterrand, the first socialist president of France's modern republic, led to higher taxes than the nationalization of swaths of the French economy. He literally did the meme. If Trump's elected, I'm going to Canada. If Kamala's elected, I'm going to France. And he did that. He was like, there's a socialist here.

45:31I'm bouncing. I'm going to New York. And it must have paid off for him because he said he didn't own a single luxury brand at the time. Instead, like Trump, he aspired to become a real estate mogul. He opened offices at Rockefeller center while Trump Tower was being erected on 56th and 5th. Arnaud met Trump for the first time at a charity dinner at the Plaza Hotel in the early 80s, years before Trump acquired the storied hotel. Trump was the embodiment of a distinctly American form of luxury, one that splashed brand names in bold-based font on everything from buildings to jets. Loud opulence. Let's go.

46:07Really the creator. Arnaud's most high profile investments were on the Florida coast. U.S. real estate, however, was difficult terrain for the Frenchman who struggled with an unfamiliar market. When Mitterrand's cash-strapped government made a U-turn toward a more business-friendly policies, Arnaud returned to him. That's so dirty. You're only business-friendly when you're cash-strapped? Yeah. I mean, that's the teal thing. Even the socialists would say, you got to let the capitalist make some money before you can redistribute it. So it doesn't make sense to do socialism in a 2 % GDP growth economy.

46:44You need to get to 10 % GDP growth. And that's where all the AGI socialists come from is they say, hey, look, yeah, UBI sounds crazy now, but when we're growing GDP 10%, there's going to be so much money flowing around. It'll be easier to pay for UBI. Everything will be paid off. Anyway, these guys are futurists. when Arnaud resurfaced in New York in the late 1980s it was the purveyor of a different kind of luxury Arnaud had purchased Christian Dior and he was fighting for control of LVMH he had garnered a reputation as France's sharp elbow deal maker back in France drawing comparisons to Trump himself Arnaud and Trump shook hands at a party at the Metropolitan Club in 1989 Arnaud had helped sponsor a black tie event for the French luxury industry at the Metropolitan club in Manhattan.

47:33They shared a table according to video of the event and Arnaud is seated next to a bejeweled Ivana Trump. As Trump beams as he arrives at the table to shake hands. Arnaud continued snapping up fashion and luxury brands including American ones like Marc Jacobs and Donna Karan. The real front lines of the expansion however was the US real estate market. It was like a game of Monopoly. Arnaud's brands needed to occupy prime locations in America's most exclusive shopping corridors talking about fifth avenue madison avenue just around the corner of trump tower bulgari etc and so he goes on an absolute tear yeah and if you haven't already go listen to the acquired episode of uh lvmh because the story is just yeah the found i i honestly have listened to both so i'm probably have overlapping narratives but um but yeah both Both of those episodes are fantastic and they give you just learning about Arnaud, just an absolute.

48:34He certainly didn't luck into being at one point the world's richest man. Well, let's close out with this, like how the taxes are actually shaping up to see, you know, what the prediction is for how LVMH bears going forward in the Trump 2.0 administration. In 2019, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of seven on 7.5 billion worth of European goods in retaliation for EU subsidies to Airbus. The duties targeted aircraft, cheese and alcohol like wine and scotch. Bad news for the French diet, the French diet paradox. Justin Mares. Luxury items like champagne and handbags were spared. Thank God.

49:16Dom Perignon. Leaving some people scratching their heads. Yeah, I mean, at$2.50,$3.50 a bottle, you know, you put tariffs on that. We're going to be making January 6th look like a picnic. A baby shower. A baby shower, yeah. The day before the tariffs were enforced, Arnaud and Alexandra boarded Air Force One with Trump en route to Johnson County, Texas, to inaugurate the new Louis Vuitton workshop in Texas. Notice how they say workshop. they don't say factory because a lot of it is actually still done by hand. Interesting. LVMH invested$50 million in the facility with plans to hire a thousand employees within five years.

49:59The bags produced here, including the Neverfull, Neo, New, and Metis, I'm not familiar with these bags, bear the label made in the USA. When a French reporter asked Trump why he was slapping levies on wine and cheese while ignoring champagne and leather goods. Trump said he had been discussing the issue with Arnaud. I can't tax him because he moved to the United States. He was very smart. He was way ahead, Trump said. That's a good point. I mean, it's the dealmaker guy. It seems like corrupt, but at the same time, it's like the whole point is what does America get out of this trade deal? And there are a number of things.

50:36There are money from tariffs or jobs in domestic manufacturing and so you know trump says like hey i threatened him he played ball and so i have to i can't have to back down yeah yeah like that's the point uh it is it is also tricky because like yeah champagne uh how are you gonna move that like you can't move that to texas i don't think yeah but um trump's presence at the unveiling caused consternation at louis vuitton's offices in Paris. Nicolas Guesquere, Louis Vuitton's artistic director for women's collections, wrote on Instagram, standing against any political action, I am a fashion designer refusing this association.

51:16It's like kind of a reasonable thing to say. He's not that crazy. But yeah, obviously there's a lot of people that work at LVMH that are not down with the MAGA bros. And so they're going to have a rough time. Pulling Trump aside are no confided plans to make a major investment in the United States. He didn't say what, but days later, LVMH went public with a bid for Tiffany's. The roughly$16.2 billion deal was the biggest acquisition of Arnaud's career. And with Tiffany's flagship store, LVMH now controlled three other four corners. American luxury brand. Yep. There's not really any, can you think of any that actually - The Comp is Cartier and it's not an American brand.

51:58Yeah. Yep. And so I don't know who owns Cartier but uh you know LVMH wait really yeah you're kidding no they own both yeah the most monopolistic thing like yeah like where where is yeah so so Cartier is owned by Richemont but Bernard owns a big stake in Richemont okay so it's indirect yeah where's Lena Khan on this she's probably buying luxury watches and she's like you know what let them oh sorry so actually i take it back okay break it down i was spreading i was just spreading misinformation the size of arnaud's stake when he when it when it when he acquired it was undisclosed ernard holds it in his words as as an investment okay uh the thing is is arnaud has a history if you listen to the founders podcast episode he will just start he'll want to buy a company's or he just starts buying the stock yeah of course so this is what he does he's basically on his version of public just like little checks here you're averaging in yeah yeah he's dollar cost averaging in and and um and and it's totally possible like he just doesn't even want to own all of richmond but anyways he sees it as an investment not uh he's never said oh i'm going to try to take this over so he doesn't have a controlling stake but he does have a stake yeah interesting yeah so um yeah uh no matter whether you go Cartier Crash or Tiffany Patek but it's interesting because Rishman also owns Van Cleef yeah which you know that are no it's such a hot you know brand especially right in this moment men and women are wearing it you know that um you know that he he wants he wants he wants it but then they also own like IWC, Piaget, like maybe he doesn't want those.

53:53Piaget's great. Yeah. IWC, I'm not a big fan of it. Yeah. I mean, good pilot watches. You can't hate them. So let's see. It's such a funny thing being a public company and just having somebody text you that says, hey, don't want to ruin your day, but Bernard Arnault just bought, you know, bought 6 % of the company and we're hearing he's making other bids. It is very, very funny. Anyway, so now that LVMH was Trump's tenant and Arnaud needed to extend his conglomerate stay into the brick building. Once the Tiffany flagship store reopened, Arnaud wanted to temporarily move Louis Vuitton's flagship into the brick building while its permanent store underwent a sweeping renovation.

54:39Arnaud dispatched Alexandra to New York to become the number two executive at Tiffany on January 6th, 2021, the same day that Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. Just coincidence. By the time he left office, Trump was widely considered a pariah among the business elites. Alexander Arnault was the exception. The young executive and his wife died with Trump in 2023 at Mar-a-Lago. So for any of our listeners that are under five years old, it's hard to even... Our kids listen to this from time to time. It goes on in the house. yeah people don't you know these five-year-olds don't realize that that trump was a pariah yeah it's true just in in 2021 every like he would probably call somebody like jeff bezos and jeff bezos would just like not pick out i never need to i never need to think about you ever again like hey sorry and removed from politics yeah it was just fully removed and so the inauguration this time was just hilarious and that everybody came to kiss the ring and all these yeah imagine we talked about this with the uh you know decision to de-platform trump it's like everyone in that group chat was like yeah there's definitely never going to be any negative repercussions from this and then four years later they're like and then even even he has infinite leverage yeah yes and then a year or two later there's this really viral post that's continued to go viral with somebody saying it's crazy that we just de-platformed trump and there was just like literally no consequences.

56:12It's just like, oh, we just lose the election in a landslide. Yeah. I forget who that is, but yeah, it's great. I can't tell if they were joking. I think they might've been joking when they posted that. but who knows uh but it is hilarious because obviously there were very serious consequences but not for the LVMH organization and the Arnault family because Alexander is a young man on the move. Trump wrote in a social media post at the time, we were celebrating the deal we made. Alexander Arnault, actress Gal Gadot, and Tiffany CEO Anthony Ledru cut the ribbon at the reopening of Tiffany's flagship store in 2023.

56:49Louis Vuitton's Fifth Avenue store transferred to the brick building, turning it into a department store sized temple of commerce. You know we love temples of commerce. Giant sculptures of a giraffe and ostrich were added to the facade of the building. Very cool. And so after Trump won the election, Arnaud moved Alexander to Moe Hennessy, LVMH's drinks division, which generates much of its revenue in the US. Alexander took over as the unit's number two official this month. But people familiar with the matter say he's being groomed to eventually take the top job at Moet Hennessy. The drinks business faces more difficult straits than the conglomerates leather goods and fashion divisions.

57:34Drinks have much thinner profit margins, making it harder for them to absorb any additional levies. So we got to keep buying. Dom, that's really important. We're going to save this company here on the consumer side. Yeah. And there's a lot of talk around who's Arnaud's favorite boy, child, right? And so the way that the way that he's sort of moving Alexander around the empire, sort of training him up. Yeah. Presumably like he seems like the leading candidate for becoming the top dog. But yeah, again, it's exciting. Don't quite know yet. And so you can't shift, as we mentioned, you can't shift champagne and cognac production to the US.

58:16I think legally, like France has rules that link appellations of wine and liquor to specific regions of the country. And so it's only champagne if it comes from the champagne region of France. It's like a legal term. For now, LVMH executives have been carefully mapping its exports across every customs code category, tracking their exact locations in the shipping process. So the company can quickly determine its exposure to the moment any tariffs take effect. And they're gearing up for more investments in Tiffany. LVMH is spending 10 times more on Tiffany stores than its previous owners and more than twice as much on marketing.

58:53Wow. That's a huge investment. That's crazy. Yeah. Maybe a Tiffany store in every city in America. Whatever people say, the Tiffany CEO, Anthony Ledrew says, this is shaping up to be a very pro-business president. So they're coming out, marking their claims. Never hurts to be pro-business. pro business should we do uh should we do some some jet battling the airplanes have been crashing it's been very devastating very sad fortunately no one was killed on the last plane crash uh but it did flip over entirely and the wings broke off which is not good uh seems like pilot air they came in too fast yeah do you want to talk a little bit about you don't need to name the individual but but a pilot that we know was kind of breaking down uh yeah i'll just read the texts uh this is hilarious uh so we're talking about the uh the the crash and uh my buddy who flies planes says uh uh he thinks it's going to be very stupid for the next five years uh have you seen the video have you seen the clear video of the crash the guy just landed way too hard literally nothing wrong with the plane the weather looks totally fine just way too high of a descent rate which is crazy since you have way higher air pressure when it's cold clear day and toronto is basically at sea level like bro these are basically the ideal conditions to land a jet other than the snow on the ground but that seems like that wasn't a factor yeah because as soon as they come in before they even touch the snow the wheels just break off the plane and so clearly it came in way too hard.

1:00:31Uh, and, and he closes by saying like, if you told me what, uh, you need to land a jet, what would your favorite conditions be to choose? I'd basically choose these exact weather conditions, cold, clear day at sea level. And so, uh, yeah, what a, what a mess. Uh, very, very silly. But, uh, anyway, so this, this story kind of ties into the, um, to the last one in some ways, because Europe had been subsidizing Airbus. And so this is just this great battle of commercial, you know, airplane manufacturers that's playing out live. And it seems like it's worked for them or something. Something's going right at Airbus because the Airbus...

1:01:12Well, is it just that so many things were going wrong at Boeing? Yeah. Because it's possible if they were just not even executing that well, but just like prioritizing safety, durability of the planes, and pilot training. maybe maybe the safest european rigorous hiring just works i guess or maybe they're not getting brain drained you know like airbus might be the hottest ticket in in europe whereas in in america you know a lot of the great boeing people probably went to work at spacex etc anyway uh the european company started delivering the new aircraft the a321 xlr late last year against a backdrop of manufacturing upheaval and financial strain at its American rival.

1:01:56So far, the XLR has racked up more than 500 orders, many from airlines, looking to replace older Boeing planes. And can you pull up on public, like, just give me the size of the prize, like market cap for Boeing, what's happening with the stock over the last couple of years, market cap for Airbus, just to give me some ideas. I'm going to pull out, I'll send some screenshots to Ben. Okay. I'm going to keep reading and then you kind of do some deep dive in. The jet success is one of the starkest signs yet of the diverging fortunes of the two companies with Boeing's troubles leading to gaps in its product lineup that are now being exploited by Airbus.

1:02:34It is also a warning of a bigger threat looming while Boeing is strapped for cash. Airbus is increasingly investing an entirely new generation of aircraft that could shape the duopoly for decades to come. Very interesting. Yeah. So one thing right away with with Boeing, sort of a narrative violation, but they're somehow up 11, they're, they're up 11 % in the past 12 months, which you just based on all the headlines, you just wouldn't expect that. They've had like a very rocky, you know, they went, they, they, they got, you know, badly, they badly, you know, their, their stock suffered obviously with, with COVID and everything like that.

1:03:15And then it's basically never actually, never actually fully recovered. So there's still, they're still down from peak. They're down 27 % over the last five years. So pretty meaningful dip. On the other hand, you have Airbus, which on the five years up 30%. So they're almost inverted in that sense. So American Airlines and United Airlines have chosen the Airbus's XLR to replace their Boeing 757 fleets. And again, as a consumer, if I'm looking at two flights. I don't really have that much loyalty to airlines, to be honest. I just kind of like try to book the best flight. Um, the, but I do kind of pay attention if there's two flights that are exactly, you know, pretty much exactly the same.

1:04:01I just go for the Airbus. And so it's totally possible that, that these airlines are saying consumers don't want to be flying on Boeing. We need to adjust our fleet to fit their, their concerns. It's crazy because like, yeah, I mean, you go one level deeper in the stack and like, you know, no one cares that it's like, oh, this is a Rolls Royce engine or like this is a trans dime seat buckle. But most people don't know who makes what planes when they get on a Delta flight or an American Airlines flight. But it's, you know, something going, you know, something's going bad when people start caring about what the plane manufacturer is.

1:04:39But it has been a mess. And there's been a lot of negative press, even though just on the safety statistics. like Boeing is still like very, very safe. But it's just the vibes feel off. Yeah. The new model, the latest in its A320 family of aircraft has another advantage. It doesn't have much competition. Boeing discontinued the 757 in 2004 and shelved plans to build a new aircraft that would have competed directly with the XLR in 2020. The US company's main rival aircraft, the 737 MAX 10 is years behind schedule awaiting sign-off from the FAA. If all but a handful of people are let go from the FAA, it's possible that they would just give it a rubber stamp because they're like, hey, we really don't have time to deal with this.

1:05:27It hasn't been all gloom for Boeing. The company in December announced a landmark order for up to 200 Max 10 jets from Turkey's Pegasus, a carrier that predominantly operates Airbus jets. So they are flipping some people. America Airlines also doubled down on its commitment to Max 10 with 85 new orders last March. And Airbus isn't without its own problems. Supply chain issues have limited the company's plans to turbocharge production and meet booming demand in the wake of the pandemic. This month, Airbus said it was delaying a long-touted hydrogen-powered jet. Oh, I had no idea they were even working on that.

1:06:02Anyway, in the five years since 2019, Airbus has spent some$12.9 billion on R &D. Boeing's plane making business has spent eight billion. So this is such an example of like going back this month, Airbus said it was delaying a long touted hydrogen jet, hydrogen powered jet. You didn't even know this was happening. Clearly, you know, the reason that, you know, if you could go back and invest in Tesla years ago, the bull case would be like, this is a big company, very focused on innovation that's going to continue to try to reinvent itself and these airline manufacturers you know these aircraft manufacturers commercial aircraft manufacturers don't seem like the reason they trade it like 2x revenue is because they have no real like they're not really showing hey we're committed to innovation we want to we want to build the next platform yeah and um anyways it's just it's just interesting to think about at a large late stage company people's incentives aren't their lifetimes they're like i'm here for a couple years or I'm here for a decade.

1:07:05I'm building my career, but I'm later in my career. Maybe I'm going to retire in 10 years. Maybe I'm going to retire in 20 years. Elon's thinking like, I'm going to run SpaceX in a thousand years and I'm going to be the president and king of Mars. And so, you know, whether or not it's true, he's certainly thinking long-term and that leads to a very different style of decision-making than the guy who's just like, okay, to really get my retirement package or to get my bonus or to get my promotion, I got to put out a press release about some fake thing and get some McKinsey consultants to say it's real.

1:07:35Hydrogen powered jet. Oh, we're delaying it. And then pump the stock a little bit and then pull back from the last second and say, oh, it was actually never really a thing. It was just a, what's the term? It was just an art project. It was just performance art. Performance art. Yeah. What if they come out and say that in the next press release? Oh, that hydrogen jet, that was just a bit of performance art. Yeah. Just a side project. This is why Boom Arrow could end up being, you know, their recap could end up being like the best investment ever is because if they can pull it off, then these big, either Boeing or Airbus will have to come in and buy it or they'll just sell directly to the airlines.

1:08:11And for everyone who's saying, oh, Blake's probably like the CEO of Boom is like, is super deluded now. Like, you know, it's gonna be rough for him. If he really starts crushing and like delivering, delivering in a serious, serious way, he can reincorporate in Texas and do the Elon thing and be like, I want 25 % of this company and you'll give it to me if I hit a hundred billion market cap. And all the shareholders will be like, absolutely. Because it makes perfect economic sense just like it did with Tesla. And so if you're a founder and you're diluted, you're kind of down but not out, don't give up because you can always get back in the game.

1:08:50This is a new thing. Wasn't the case for a long time. Yeah, Paul, you can imagine Paul Graham being a big part of that round, presumably, and the other investors, I'm sure they were thinking we need to make sure that Blake is incentivized to triple down when many people would have given up already. Yeah. Yeah. But obviously the investors need like financial downside protection and like they need to own what they own. But at a certain point, it just becomes about the share price. And, you know, it can be accretive to issue the CEO or the founder CEO a ton more equity in the sense that like, yes, you will be diluted as a shareholder, but if the price goes up and you make money yeah everyone's happy anyway um airbus has been working on lightweight airframes fuel efficient engines and even folding wings that sounds real that's that definitely sounds like something that's gonna hey we're gonna have folding android phones or we already have them the natural evolution is don't worry the folding wings are definitely coming it's right around the corner 2030 everyone says if you're ever in business and you and somebody asks you like oh when's that crazy thing gonna happen just be like we're a few thousand days away yeah they're basically saying the same thing yeah 2030 for sure it's definitely gonna happen yeah if it's 2040 it's no big deal no one's gonna be mad at you no one's gonna remember what you said in 2025 in 2030 yeah five years later it's a lifetime uh anyway uh folding wings that'll be yeah maybe they should just flap them make let's make birds giant albatross make the wings flap Yeah, come on.

1:10:18We spend more time arguing with the ornithopter, right? Yeah, exactly. From Dune. That'd be great. Anyway, Boeing isn't in a financial position yet to launch a new aircraft. So they're kind of getting stuck and Boeing could get in a situation where their old plane sucks and the new plane, they can't afford to launch it. And so lots of risk around Boeing, but the stock is up. It was oversold and clearly people are optimistic that something will happen here but uh let's let's figure it out it's not great when they're saying we've got a little we've got to spend a little bit more time more focus on getting ready getting the business back to generating cash yeah so that we have the cash to support new airplane development that's just not good like how is the how is the stock trading up on on just that narrative yeah hey we're not making money yeah we're 140 billion dollar company nobody trusts our airplanes anymore Boeing CEO they're falling out of the sky this is like yeah we we definitely gotta focus on getting ready yeah I think what's going on here is that uh profit is equal to revenue minus costs and we need revenue to go up while costs go down so we increase profit and everyone's like yeah so so just to give everybody context i have the full uh public page pulled up here on 66 billion in ttm revenue they've lost about nine billion dollars so rough um not looking anyway great good luck to them hopefully they can go pick up some startups do some acquisitions it would actually let those founders run the company that's what i want to see yeah at a certain point you just you want any great american company because boeing in the fullness of time is a great american company yeah that said it clearly needs somebody like an elon yeah i wish everyone always says that's the bull case for for elon just having a bunch of children yeah is that one if we need more elons now i i think we can get other people i would say the the wild card move they should boeing how much how much cash they have on their balance sheet like a billion dollars they should just go dude i hope they have more than that they're losing almost a billion a month yeah i mean on the other hand people are like oh these ai people are raising too much money we have boeing's out there burning a billion a month if boeing's burning a billion a month and you're only burning 50k a month.

1:12:51Yeah, Boeing has 26 billion on their balance sheets. Okay, take five of that. Go buy Boom. Blake Scholl, get in the CEO seat. You're running Boeing now. Make better planes. You got to make better planes. Make them flap. Make them flap. No, don't make them flap. Make them real. Make them good. Stop with the flapping. I want the ornithopter mode. Ornithopter mode. Ornithopter mode. Yeah. I like this plan. i think we can turn this around this is why we should have an activist hedge fund so we can come in start putting pressure maybe we got to get bill ackman send bill ackman a post hey we're taking boeing private we're buying boom we're putting blake shoal in the in the boeing ceo seat uh crazier things have happened in the business world you heard it here first if it happens what do you look um i just realized there's that apple launch event oh is that happening now uh nakil in the chat says did we cover it yet we have not covered it yet ben if you want to print off an article or pull up some slides for us uh do that but while we're preparing for that next segment uh jordy i'd love for you to take me through nick carter uh and his uh and his post on meme coins being unquestionably over yeah here's uh you know a lot of people over the last week have been uh saying are meme coins dead uh there was a time that felt like uh nfts were just inevitable and they were going to take over the whole economy and uh yeah i mean it just feels like meme coins are like the least dead they've ever been in history from my perspective because the president just launched one and so i feel like we're still like yes maybe you can call top if you're really really sharp like nick is but in general i think for like normies they're just like whoa like these meme coins are like serious yeah and so well he actually gets into this there's some really good interesting uh so so the the the narrative within crypto right now are that meme coins are dead yeah they're seen in these sort of uh extractive zero-sum games right biology came out and was like pvp pvp these are pvp projects there's no value creation it's just value sort of transfer between people that are you know early and people that are later right and like people that's bought and sold at the right time yeah people that bought and sold at the wrong time And we've taken this stance.

1:15:10We have said that launching a crypto coin is, or meme coin is low class and vulgar. What would your mother say? We've said that, you know, we have generally been fairly harsh on the crypto community. And so the last, and it's interesting because, you know, even today, a company that I backed at Preseed just announced a huge, their second round from Andreessen Crypto called Universal Assets. So like, there's a bunch of good stuff happening in crypto, So, but it does feel like meme coins had sort of the obvious top was the president launching a meme coin. And then kind of where do you go from there?

1:15:46And so there's been a bunch of drama with the Libra coin from the Javier who like just kind of promoted it, but wasn't necessarily a part of it. It sort of reflected poorly on him. And then now this week, it's been interesting. dave portnoy has just like gone heavy into meme coins just launching a bunch of coins and and sort of getting on these sort of live uh chats on on x and just like him you know looking like classic disheveled you know yelling at sort of cartoon uh profile picture you know people um but let's get into this post and we'll cover some of these other issues so funny that trump has to pay short-term capital gains on trump coin wow that's right because he was just selling into Because they sold in like two days.

1:16:27It's like the shortest. It's just ordinary income. 50%. Okay, so Nick Carter says, meme coins are unquestionably over. Obviously, they won't fully disappear, but the trade is gone. Reason being the entire premise of meme coins was that there were fair launch opportunities where John Retail had just as good of a shot at making money as the funds and VCs. So for a while, it was these sort of ICOs that were sort of public, but they also had some sort of more institutional capital. And then you had these heavily sort of VC backed projects like Solana, for example, like raised a bunch of venture capital before they ever were sort of widely available or distributed.

1:17:08And so, you know, after going through this era of like VC coins that are getting by the time they go public, basically on the chain, they're trading at these crazy valuation meme coins. You could get in at$10 ,000 market cap. And then if it goes to a million, like, you know, you've got a ridiculous return. So anyways, this was the entire substance of the claim made by the meme coin boosters. The coins had no purpose beyond their launch mechanic. They weren't sold as a product in their own right, but rather as an alternative to high, fully diluted value VC backed coins. Those have their own problems, of course, but their issues did not make meme coins any more worthwhile.

1:17:47And the meme coin trade was entirely based on a claim that was ultimately exposed as a lie. that the casino was at least fair. It was evident that this wouldn't last, and once meme coins became a big sector, semi-professional entities would emerge to cut pre-launch deals, trade on insider info, snipe launches, meaning like just buying something super early that you know is going to be big. The quoted tweet dives into those details. For all of Hayden's sins, and Hayden is the guy that did the Melania token, and then he did the Libra token, he's done more to expose the corrupt meme coin sector than anyone else, and he should be commended for that at least.

1:18:22So he basically did a bunch of stuff that people were like, what are you doing? This is terrible. And then he went and talked for hours with Dave Portnoy, with CoffeeZilla. And so the Malay coin was the most obvious example of this. Opening at a billion and going up to four billion in minutes, clear proof that people were playing a rigged game. So presumably Hayden basically sold a bunch of the token before launch, basically saying that as soon as we launch this, it's going to be worth a billion dollars. You're going to be able to sell into that. and it'll go up to you know a multiple of that um nick says but it's just the latest in a series of unfair and botched launches the casino didn't take a slight edge it was more like 90 10 in favor of the house right um so where to now like just to make it very clear if it was 90 10 odds in vegas people would stop going because there just wouldn't be the story it just would be way less entertaining and so nick's entire thesis is if you're 90 10 in favor of the house yeah people will just stop playing the game yep uh so he goes so where to now meme coins are cooked there will still be launches and probably some winners but the meta is done crypto historically has always been about these metas right it was defy summer then it was like the nft yeah then it was three three coins and yeah um and so retail will still be farmed here and there the little little pay pigs as many as many are not extremely online and unaware of how extractive the sector is but the countless coterie of scandals and meme coin land will turn off the smarter investors and eventually the mass market so his position here is that uh there's a there the people that are on x right now and on discord and telegram and all these platforms they know that like meme coins are cooked yeah and they're now becoming way more wary of like some of these bigger projects in many ways like trump like if you just bought trump in the first 20 minutes of when he announced it you did really really really well and it's crazy because i i feel like like in the retail sector like in in like in like wall street like there is a thesis for like uh okay the u.s government can give you a corporate bond or a government bond then you get three three to five percent or something and then a large corporation like apple just makes money makes money makes money and you buy a share of that and they give you a little bit of the money and so it's very like logical there's very clear value creation there and then and then yes you do get the crazier stuff where it's like day trading very rarely works out because it's so financialized and so professionalized that it's like yeah you're going up against fucking jane street like yeah yeah right um pardon my language but uh and then but then on the flip side you have people like Warren Buffett who espoused just like general buy and hold strategies that do tend to work out for retail for most people.

1:21:15And it does kind of work. And with the crypto stuff, I guess something similar does exist with just like stack sats and buy Bitcoin versus like trade meme coins. But when I see the meme coins, like I can write the algorithm in my head, which is like, set up a bunch of servers that are scraping trump's twitter and watch for any crypto launches if there's a crypto launch immediately go buy that right thank you uh immediately go buy that like that and and you could do that for melania you could do that for baron and there's people that actually have set up for all these snipers exactly is talking about it's actually they're looking at the wallets on sale and seeing and saying the person that did melania is working on a new thing.

1:21:59It's probably big. So let's buy some of that immediately. Or, hey, this thing just got created in$100 ,000, float into it, buy it with size. Exactly. Exactly. And so all of that seems super easy to make algorithmic. And so I don't know why as a retail investor, you would ever want to play in that unless you truly had inside information. So anyway, so Nick says meme coins are cooked. Second point, conventional L1, L2 DeFi token launches will continue, but I'm noticing funds and founders shying away from high pre-launch valuations, mindful that end buyers are wary of these high FDV, low float game.

1:22:34And so what high FDV, low float means that this is basically the Trump coin, right? So there's like this crazy sort of fully diluted value in that if you released every token onto the market, that would, like if there's a billion tokens, you know, and this is the price, this would be the market cap. But then what they end up doing is there's only a number of like 20 % of that actually circulating. So it helps support the price. But I mean, that happens when a company goes public. And the reason you hire an investment bank is because they're trying to do price discovery in roadshows with large investors.

1:23:09So they go to State Street, they go to Fidelity and they say, Hey, the company is doing, here's the DCF, here's the huge model. We think this is where it should trade. What do you guys think? Okay, let's do an auction. Let's auction off this block and then get it and then unlock more of shares like this has been a solved problem and somehow crypto reinvented it but the problem is is that like the whole point of an ipo is like typically to raise money um so you're raising money you're offering the public and then and then the reason why you want an accurate price is because if the price too is the price is too high yeah your cost of capital is lower you raise more money but then your stock tanks and everyone's like your company sucks on the flip side if you price too low your stock pops but you're like hey we only got a hundred million dollars in our ipo and we gave up 10 of the company like what happened that's why bill gurley's always upset about that yeah um but the problem with the point is that like you don't need the money for anything right like is there presumably like you know hey this guy hayden yeah with uh libra coin managed to generate a hundred million dollars and what what dave portnoy was pressing him on is like whose money is it like where did that come from yeah and so you'd be sort of waffling on that like like a good example would be like um you know like uber goes public they raise money yeah now they're public they can issue debt easier they get lower cost of capital and so what is uber they're profitable now but if they need to raise more money they have access to the public capital markets and then they can do things like try and build a self-driving car or hire a bunch of engineers to make their app better.

1:24:45Like there's obvious things, but like with a meme coin, like where the money doesn't go towards anything. Like the product is done as soon as it's, as soon as it's shipped. Right. Like there's no, there's no, so the price discovery doesn't even matter. Yeah. It's just, it's just a wealth transfer. I don't mean, the price, the price is almost a function. Uh, no, like, I mean, that's, that's Nick's broader point is that the coin's purpose was the launch mechanic. And then the product is the price. So when the price is good, people love the product they're like I love this product and then when the price is not so good then they start to take some issue with it um and it's interesting so what Nick is saying is like you know these rounds are happening in the private market so I've done uh I've made probably five fish investments in sort of digital asset related uh startups um was lucky to be in this company that that launched today yeah we have universal asset we'll cover it in a bit I was like in the seed round of farcaster which is a billion dollar you know um protocol now um but over the last year i've been pitched these rounds that are that are this is our pre-token launch round the round is happening at 700 million dollars here's the comps we think we're going to be able to go out at 2 billion it's like an easy you know multiple on your money like that's how these things are being pitched is this sort of pre-ipo round you only have to hold you're only a liquid for a year and then you get this like quick you know potentially pop um so nick says next he says crowdfunding platforms like echo will thrive so echo is like angelist-esque platform for the crypto world they do um effectively spvs they have accreditation kyc all the stuff that's important for companies that their their narrative is like let's help these um private crypto rounds that are pre-token be more community oriented.

1:26:35So enable, you know, 200 people to invest in something that in a perfect world, Andreessen would be like, we're taking that entire round. But people started to think poorly about these VC coins. Another interesting point. This is a really interesting one. So he says flight to quality. Part of the reason meme coins were attractive was because they promised nothing and were thus considered exempt from securities law. Yeah, that's the thing with melania token right like it's not like she said hey i'm issuing a token and we're going to build a protocol that will allow you to like get exclusive access you're not going to earn from it there's no there's nothing it's not a financial product it's just a it's a meme yeah and that's actually what they they don't even call it a token or a coin they call it uh melania meme.com is now live or it's just a meme yeah uh so nick says we have a progressive sec that is already recrafting rules to allow for compliant issuance of tokens and presumably an equity light disclosure regime for issuers this means that we don't have to bother with fake decentralization which is these protocols that are like oh we're set up in the maldives and then we have like our you know ngo over here in africa that's basically what usa is getting it on this one um but anyways so the idea here is that these tokens that couldn't have fees associated with them because that would position them as like blatantly a security um they they'd be able to actually return capital to users in an interesting way and actually start to function more like equity um because a lot of people would say like oh this token has to be worth money because it's connected in some way to this company and they're worth a billion dollars and the reality is is like they're totally disconnected.

1:28:18No. The whole point of why you buy stock or preferred stock in a corporation is that it gives you a legal right to the stream of cash flows. Yeah. That's pretty awesome. It's like if you own, you know, 1 % of Berkshire Hathaway, you get 1 % of the profits in that they dividend out. And now there's a lot of other structures that can happen. The money can flow around a lot of different ways. The board can vote to reinvest those assets. But in general, you have a claim on the financial assets uh both on the balance sheet and in the and in the cash flow statement yeah so nick ends on a positive note he says there's no reason to be upset a sense of gloom and cynicism pervades crypto right now because meme coins in a sense were considered the last fair terrain where anyone could make money this illusion has been shattered he basically is saying the trade of the next few years is just to be like where is their actual sort of like on chain cash flows happening and just buy those tokens right because then this fee switch can be turned on yep and you can actually earn you know cash flows based on your ownership of said token so basically like this could be the end of crypto and meme coins are mainstream now there's going to be less of the i just bought this token and now i'm worth 10 million dollars type of thing and more so it'll bring a level of if you you can you're going to be able to make money on chain but you're going to be more like a day trader who's either getting super lucky taking a lot of risk or being highly methodical and taking this sort of long-term value-driven approach to investing so there's going to be the top call there's going to be i think like the next meta is going to be crypto value investing where you're kind of looking at these protocols and saying okay where is their income being generated on chain and how can i you know basically own that and compound on it and i'm sure a lot of people do very well but it just looks more like traditional stock or bond investing yep or alternative asset investing then well let's close out with this growing daniel post and watch out there's some bombshells in there you got a sensor he's got a little bit of daniel says i think crypto permanently damaged tech in weird ways just a huge influx of very uninteresting greedy our words our words and when crypto went bust they rolled into ai and now every ai founder i meet except for a handful seems like total dimwits f crypto man 10k likes so this day now um view hidden replies for insane crypto bot trash yep absolute s word technology built by s companies for s community it is funny that the that the average like that if you post a lot on x you're gonna have even if you have nothing to do with crypto you're gonna have you know hundreds of messages a week from people being like hey boss i've got a meme coin i have a i have a bot that replies to every single one of my posts with some sort of like chat gpt spinoff but it always tries to steer the conversation towards some solana thing that i haven't seen and so most of the time it just gets muted and i don't follow it so i don't see the notifications but every time i actually click I'm like, oh, that's weird.

1:31:30There's someone like tracking me. Yeah. What would your mother say? Lots of messiness. Go build something real. Do you want to go through Gautier? Do you want to do that? OK. Yeah. Let's talk about a group of a group of. Yeah. Let's hit the size gong. Gautier is phenomenal poster. um and uh anyways um so um uh so anyways go ta i i ended up backing this team in 2021 so basically had to have been close to um for maybe 2020 even but like close to a decade close to four probably probably four plus years ago. Um, and they have just iterated and made pivots. They were starting and building an on-chain index.

1:32:25And one of the, I think, generalized issues they had was they couldn't really launch hard launch in the U S you had, they had to like make it available. And a lot of crypto wealth is still in the U S even though our regulatory environment wasn't friendly. So they ended up kind of evolving the business into what it is today, which they're announcing um and uh so anyways i'll read it out so you uh universal.xyz universal fundamentally improves how assets move and trade on chain you can now trade spot assets like uh sui i think it is sui doge and xrp directly on your preferred chain without bridges or centralized exchanges the problem is simple crypto is fragmented so many chains so many assets if you're trading on base but want exposure to something like soul doge or xrp you have to bridge or find your way back to a centralized exchange this creates unnecessary friction for your users and severely limits which which assets developers can use universal solves this with u assets wrap tokens that are backed one-to-one by verifiable reserves held in coinbase prime uh each u asset can be natively minted and redeemed on chain across any supported chain since going live u assets has already seen over 850 million in trading volume so that's crazy they seem like very uh pacing towards a billion dollars very quickly.

1:33:41Traders, this can mean you can finally trade 80 plus new assets without leaving your preferred chain. No bridges, no centralized exchanges, no fragmented liquidity. And you can put your assets to work in DeFi. This is really cool. A lot of investors have experienced this before. Sometimes you don't really know what your portfolio company is doing. I certainly didn't fully understand the new development, but they've evolved and clearly iterated and are building something awesome now so congratulations to go ta and the rest of the team they have just um i commented uh incredible showing of grit across a crazy few years because there were so many moments where i'm sure their loved ones were basically saying all right guys hang up the hat like if you're in web3 pivot to ai yeah that was a lot of pressure like you gave this a good run but like it's over kind of thing you know um so that's great for them uh very cool exciting we got more funding news Saronic raised a$600 million Series C from Andreessen Caffeinated 8VC General Catalyst Alad Gil little bit spicy on the timeline since Delian called Alad out for Alad Gil his whole thing is like the index companies he wants to buy the one company in the space that's the power law winner Alad's obviously

1:35:06an investor in Anderle. Andreessen's an investor in Anderle as well. And now they're investing in another defense tech company. But we'll see. Maybe there's room for two power law winners in this space. But congratulations to everyone over at Saronic. And$600 million. I mean, that's a lot of money. You've got to raise a size going for that. Boom, boom, boom. So congrats to everyone over at Saronic. Let's move on. I love to see solo GPs leading gig around. Always. It's just the best. Always. I love just seeing. And it is cool. I mean, Alad's point was that, yeah, like shipbuilding capacity is way under.

1:35:44Way under. We need more shipbuilding. And that's what Ceronics focused on. Let's move on to the humane AI pin is winding down. Did you see this? HP is acquiring the team IP and software for$116 million. dollars we've been talking about this make printers great again we have a brother printer uh it's pretty good but it could be a lot better of course we have the printers the brand is actually called brother it's not just your nickname we don't just have one printer we actually have three printers uh we have some very nice printers we have we're big into printers the name is brother usa and so yeah you want and so this uh yeah shout out to brother and uh shout out to hp hewlett packard let's see I think it's funny that HP is known for like printers now because they used to be like the premier maker of computers I actually know someone who's like a descendant of Bill Packard and it's a bill yeah and I mean HP has an incredible founding story there was a who was it some some guy who fought in World War II or worked at World War II in MIT's radio lab created radio systems to detect bombing runs to defeat the Germans, goes out to Silicon Valley, teaches at Stanford.

1:37:05And two of his students are Bill Hewlett and David Packard. And he's like, you guys should start a company. And they started HP. And it's just like a massive, massive company. But they have acquired Humane. Humane had raised maybe like$200 million. They launched that AI pin that was kind of a problem, a solution in search of a problem. Didn't really get a lot of traction. It was more, it was more, felt like a experimental cool art project. It was also weird because it was like AI was clearly tacked on at the last possible second. Yeah. Because originally it was like their Apple folks and they left Apple and they're like, we're making the next Apple device.

1:37:51But every decision that they made with this pin was hyper aware of Apple's monopolies. And that created a very compromised experience. So it could receive text messages, but they knew that they couldn't integrate with the iPhone. So there wasn't a different number? Yes, you had to get a different phone number. So, hey, Jordy, send me a text message. And don't forget to save the other number for my humane AI pin And in case you want to text me while I'm wearing the pin, like it clearly makes no sense from a UX perspective or UI perspective, but it makes sense if you're thinking like 25 steps ahead and you're saying, well, if we do integrate with Apple over Bluetooth, they will have complete control over us and we will never be able to defeat them.

1:38:43And so clearly they were thinking, let's not make just like a cool consumer hardware company because there are plenty of those. Let's try and disrupt Apple And so we have to rethink everything from first place. It's just a mess. Yeah. And there was, there was, you could look at the human. So clearly very talented builders, designers, like had a big vision. I love, I love that in general, where the ecosystem is broadly supportive of people taking these big swings on projects that are ambitious and maybe prone to fail. Right. We want 10 of these to fail. We don't want them to all to fail, but it's fine if 10 fail and one works.

1:39:20Right. But I want more friend.com stuff. Yeah. Where it's like you give a kid a couple million bucks and he goes and he tries to launch it in 12 months. Yeah. These guys were burning$200 million for like a decade. Yeah. And I care more about the time, honestly, than the money. Yeah. That's just so long. It wasn't exactly 10 years, but it was just a long time. My main point with humane is you could objectively analyze the humane pin. Yeah. And determine that it was never going to be a hit consumer product. Yeah. And the issue is that the team had so much time and money invested into it. Yeah. They had to like go put on clown makeup and like go out and be like, look, like this is the next big thing.

1:40:01And you could just consumers are too smart. Yeah. Like, wait, it's a second number and it doesn't fully replace my phone, but it's sort of additive. So I still need my phone. Yep. but what like how am I going to actually use this this doesn't really make any sense it was innovation theater it was it they were larping as apple they were larping as apple they literally dressed up like steve jobs did an apple style keynote and said all the words that apple says yeah except that's not what makes apple successful yeah what makes apple successful is that they had first mover advantage to like a revolutionary platform the iphone and they locked everyone in And so it doesn't matter if they've just bumped the camera specs two megapixels, you're going to buy it anyway.

1:40:42Yeah. And that's just a different, it's just a different business. It's like a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes Apple powerful. It's validating for me because at times you're like, am I crazy? Why are the, we won't name these investors, but you're like, why are these people putting in so much money? And you could say, oh, it's just a team bet. You know, they have some like real innovative technology here and maybe that's worth something. but it's the same thing that my my reaction to quibi which also you know the thing about these companies that that have raised a bunch of money or super high profile they tend to actually fail fairly fast in the sense that quibi shut down was it months after starting yep they were like and quibi's fundamental flaw was they were like everybody's watching these short form vertical videos we should shoot highly produced short form vertical video cinematic movies and tv shows not realizing that you're competing with every single person with a cell phone, you can make more entertaining, more topical.

1:41:37And you're competing, Quibi's not competing with Netflix, they're competing with TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, X. And that's what friend.com understands. Anyone can fine tune an LLM. Anyone can go to Llama and make the LLM sound weird. And so he's been making a bunch of weird decisions that add up to something that seems differentiated and is not just going to show up in your Siri anytime soon. Speaking of Quibi, Blake Robbins, if we go forward, probably 20 posts. He says, random thoughts. Turns out Quibi could have worked if it had just focused on soap operas. Real Short is doing$40 million per month for vertical video.

1:42:20I don't know anything about Real Short, but people are saying this is a narrative violation. One guy says too bad their output is pure slop, but it's working, which is really, really interesting. they're doing 40 million a month 40 million a month real short never heard of it uh but someone figured out and cracked it and yeah i mean it's the same story with quibi and humane uh too okay but okay but these stories are like total slop so their new release they have take me hades i'm dying when her sister gets blackmailed by a ruthless sex club owner dakota james is desperate blah blah divorce me one last time hayley bildner a successful nyc ceo engaged to a billionaire politician is shocked to learn uh the air this is another one the heiress and their wow the heiress and her possessive bodyguard so it's just like it's basically romance novels turned into these like yep seemingly like low yeah but so i mean this is a weird thing where where they were willing to do this thing what is the counter positioning here against quibi jeffrey katzenberg who was the founder of quibi would not touch this for ethical reasons for aesthetic reasons and he missed out on a 40 million dollar a month opportunity this is like basically pornography for in the same way that romance novels are this this show is called pregnant by my tough daddy ceo which i don't even censor it bleep all of that yeah so all of these um this is this is not family-friendly content uh is it ai generated or is it actually technically we don't know what the story is about it could be i don't know i don't like it the vibes are off terrible vibes terrible vibes terrible vibes uh blake so now we know why they're doing 40 million dollars a month what did it cost them well there's a good question what do the founders of real shorts mothers think about them because what we should reply and say Blake where should we start in the catalog yeah but that's interesting so the thing is is like these these sort of like low class and vulgar novels sell really well it's the same sort of tick tock yeah uh book clubs and stuff like that people like this so slop sells anyway uh promoted post we got a promoted post from Porsche uh the 911 ST, this limited run vehicle is up for auction with the entire winning bid supporting the Red Cross response to disasters through the United States.

1:44:53Now that's great because the Red Cross, we've been talking about this, might go through a for-profit transformation, which would be huge. The auction is live now through February 20th in partnership with RM Sotheby's Sealed. So obviously a lot of the viewers of this are gonna be at Sotheby's probably this weekend. And so take a look at this 911 ST. If you're not familiar, the ST, of course, is a manual analog. Essentially, you know, this is a Carrera GT level performance vehicle with true driver engagement, beautiful vehicle. Highly recommend picking this up if you're looking for a daily, something to show off, something to have to make your commute a little bit more exciting.

1:45:32Anyway, let's go back to the timeline. ST is a great just sort of commuter, underrated commuter. Yep. And so the Carrera T is out now, a little bit cheaper, I think 160, $60,$180. No, no, no, no. It's way less. I mean, after you could probably get it up there with options, but you can get a Carrera T for probably one. They raised the price though. Like the old one, the new, yeah. The, the, the newest one with the hybrid powertrain, uh, is, uh, is up at like $150 now. The 2025 T is a starting price of$135. So yeah, with options, you could probably get it to like$170. Yeah. Uh, but the ST was much more limited, much more expensive.

1:46:09And I think it's because the S, it has the Turbo S powertrain, essentially, or the GTS. It's basically a Turing, like a GT3 Turing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, GT3 Turing powertrain, but manual and much more engagement. So highly recommended. Anyway, big news from Anderil Industries. They are doing a hiring stunt. They posted, don't work at Anderil. And we have a post here from Chris Backey. He says, the new social media intern at Anderil is about to single-handedly land them a$500 million defense contract. There's a couple of posts here from Anderle. They say, got a tech job. They get a tech job. They said, it'll be easy.

1:46:44They said, I've been soldering for eight hours straight. Oh, sure. I'd love to go help with the Dive XL project. Flying from LA to Sydney and back in a weekend. Sounds great. Matt Grimm just said, I should do the Murph with him in two weeks. And he believes in me. I've never done a pull-up in my life. Whoever was working on IVAS before me was really into sword art online. and the and the ultimate banger that got 8k i think it's going up more says uh uh who's the intern john yeah whoever ghost wrote these uh generational ghostwriter really like yeah genius uh you know i can't say enough about them uh really really dog absolutely dog of ghostwriting on the timeline uh might be in there maybe might be palmer just told me he wants a working prototype of the big robot from Pacific Rim by Friday.

1:47:368K likes on that. And lots of good responses. Somebody says, is Drill working for Palmer Lucky now? Jason Levin says, Anderle is posting now. This round is about to be huge. And they even gave a shout out to our sponsor, Ramp. They say, hey, Ramp, why does my corporate card have unlimited spending on American muscle car rentals? I like that one. I might want to die. And Ramp quote tweets it and says, looking into this for personal reasons. And of course, the Ramp army comes out. Juwan says, I think we should change it to unlimited muscle car purchase. And Ramp says, as long as it increases productivity.

1:48:18Heard a good story. So I have a family friend who operated a massive HVAC company in New York for decades. And he's told me just some crazy stories from that. because imagine you're working basically on the buildings and office and real retail space of like all the most powerful firms in the world and so anyways wild stories but he said that uh he would get his executives they would all get a company car and he would advise people they could get whatever they wanted like within a certain budget range but he would advise them you know generally like get a truck or you know something that's sure and he said that the most issues he ever had was an exec that got like a a nicer bmw sure because every customer started going back to him being like why is your exec like like i'm clear like i'm not paying like whatever i'm paying you right now i'm gonna pay you like you know 20 less because clearly you have way too so enough margin in here that your executives are like driving sports cars yeah exactly to meetings so yeah yeah i think the andrel guys if you're if you're working at andrel and you're traveling gotta get a mustang show up in the gt350r the gt500 the dark horse maybe yeah who knows uh yeah what else would be there maybe camaro maybe something with a helicad corvette yeah zr1 the zero the new zr1 people are not gonna be like this is a muscle car this guy they're gonna ask you to renegotiate the contract at that point yeah but uh but maybe uh maybe something with a hellcat in there a demon dodge demon pulls up.

1:49:52Yeah. Zero to 60 and 1.7 or something off the factory line. Totally. You'll love a track ready American made factory muscle car. But very cool. Love to see Anderil doing some fun posting. They posted a video, which I think we can pull up, Ben. Is that right? You have that? Let's throw that on the stream and break it down. Jordy, what do you think about Anderil's recruiting video titled, Don't Work at Andrel, highlighting all the drawbacks of going to work at a defense tech company. Is that from an icon? We'll watch. Yeah, let's watch. I've been at Andrel for what, three months now? It's not the typical tech job I was expecting.

1:50:46My last 9 to 5 was more like 11 to 3. I was working remote. Here, you come into the office every day, and they have you doing actual work.

1:51:02Where are the nap pods? And everyone's going on about the mission. It's like they're literally obsessed with America. But I'm pretty sure this coffee is Italian. The founder guy, the one who's always in the Hawaiian shirts, he's like always around. Subterranean tunnels are bunkers. It's about using the entire crust of the earth as a three-dimensional battle space. A new warfighting system. It's really hard to make it in the current e-bike industry because dive ld is a good uh vfx shot it dives to depth about 6 000 meters totally autonomously gets into the bottom about any part easy shot but very cool a little touch not exactly business class i thought i'd be on my laptop at the hotel pool now i'm just surrounded by all these robots

1:51:59Lots of product demos. They actually expect us to test our products in the field? I'm more of an indoor guy myself. Sometimes I wonder, how did I get here? I'd rather just be sitting at my desk. That's a good VFX shot too. This is so well done. It's so well done. I mean, it's like, is the, is the whole don't like blank. Has that, that's been done in a campaign? Don't work in Andrel. Probably. It's just built different. I like it. It's funny that they mixed in the, the zoomer brain rot terms. Like built different. Yeah. I mean, clearly, you know, targeted at like, you know, the, the younger engineers who are, I mean, the, the classic Andrel pitch was like, why are the best software engineers writing ad optimization code like come build something important and i think that hits it really well uh pretty fun i love i mean fantastic campaign i was engaged the whole way yeah it felt like they could have done the same campaign in 30 seconds but they just extended it out yeah probably cut it in a bunch of different ways like i think uh like it has like the the patina of like super bowl ad almost where it's like something you could see almost before a uh like a movie It's like a one minute cinematic experience.

1:53:21But I think it works because Andro has so much credibility. I think that that style of ad probably is a little too much if you're a seed stage startup that's just... Also, that's a very... Context and stuff. That is... I have no idea if they... I'm assuming they work with an external agency. No, they have an internal team. Okay, so yeah. The cool thing is an agency would be like, that's like a$300 ,000 campaign because it's days and days of shooting and you have like all the product shots in the field and then the stuff with Palmer. So doing it in-house is very cool. I think they can take that don't work at Anderil campaign and scale it out and do, you're talking with the AdQuick team, right?

1:54:02Like do a billboard on the 101 that says don't work at Anderil and it has some crazy submarine and people are going to go, you know. And it's just about like breaking that expectation of like everyone's saying work at my company we're saying don't work and yeah it's a joke obviously you get it and in there are and they are recruiting but it's just something that sticks out a little bit in the feed and even the first just don't work at anduril post got memed and went viral because it was like wait why are they saying that like that's yeah the counter people like fell for it counter positioning is so key um yeah it's funny uh speaking so counter positioning everybody says join us on our mission anduril taking the opposite approach don't work at andrel if you don't yeah like if this doesn't sound exciting to you if you care about napods like you're not gonna have fun here just self-select out yeah and then by definition another good counter positioning example so uh allen control system which we've talked about on the show before everybody was going for these sort of lord of the rings names yep and they were like we're gonna go the exact opposite we want to sound like we're decades old like allen control systems yeah yeah it's like just kind of random just sounds like an old legacy company totally but then when steve was on cnbc or some other um mainstream media channel i think like a week ago it looks very legit because it's like steve from allen control systems people are like oh what's this you know it doesn't sound like a startup so counter positioning matters a lot even even with us like we love yc we like would love to you know figure out you know some stuff to do with them over time but uh with pmf or die is like the exact counter positioning against totally um against yc just from the lens of like instead of make something people want like make something that makes money exactly yeah and it's not it's not like taking a shot at yc it's more just like like hey there's there's a million like tech stars is trying to be like exactly copycat yc and there's a bunch of different companies that are organizations that have just been trying to like clone it's like actually it's more fun it's more valuable it's more interesting if you try and differentiate and that's what andurl's doing next to the googles of the world which have been pushing for, hey, the nap pods are great.

1:56:07And hey, the work-life balance is fantastic. They're saying the opposite. And that is like the spice of basically any great marketing campaign, in my opinion, is just finding the white space and then kind of going and exploiting it. Let's move on to AdQuick since you mentioned them. This is a little shout out. Their head of analytics, Ty Tinker, great name. TT. Head of analytics, and he just tinkers with analytics all day. Great nominative determinism. I love it. Why don't you try tinkering with your analytics once you run an AdQuick billboard? But he was on the SaaS Backwards podcast, and you can listen to the full episode here.

1:56:45And I think that'd be a great opportunity if you're trying to think about out of home. You go listen to this podcast and you see. I mean, the big question with out of home is always the analytics. Like, how do I track any of this? It makes no sense. It's like, is it just brand? Do I just have to do it on vibes? Well, Ty Tinker, the head of analytics over at AdQuick, has all the answers. So go check that out if you're interested. So I was saying, I asked Chris, the CEO of AdQuick earlier, how would you approach an andrel out of home campaign specifically around recruiting? Because there's some of these key areas where they could just like really scale up their recruiting efforts.

1:57:17And he said, we can layer any first party or third party behavioral data onto the map in AdQuick to find the best out of home ad placements to hit engineering job seekers. That's cool. So it's not just about a lot of out of home is like, we just want to be out in the world and be big and like, you know, get people's attention. but there's a science behind it and like ad quick integrates all that so it's not like you're calling up the owner of a billboard just saying like yeah i'll take your billboard for 30 days it's like let's actually figure out the highest ry most relevant places to be and then spending in those places so yep um they um anyways uh very cool well let's move on to vr uh something andrew's working on.

1:57:58So if you want to work on VR, you could go work on the IVAS program, which I think is very interesting. I was digging in a little bit more. $22 billion contract for IVAS transferred over. It only went live in 2021. So I think that there might be like$10 billion left on that contract, but then also it might get rebid and other people might bid for it. But at the same time, it's like, who else would you give it to? The dollar amount wasn't released from what I saw in terms of what Andrel was actually capturing. Exactly. But Andrel's pitch would have been, even if they were bidding for it cold, we're gonna be able to do this for a quarter of the cost.

1:58:35Exactly. And so that means that, hey, if Microsoft was gonna make$10 billion, but it was gonna cost them 9 billion to deliver that and capture that ACV, then all of a sudden they're like, hey, this contract only has a billion dollars of value to us. We will sell it to you. And I have no idea if they paid anything or what they paid, but these contracts can change hands. So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. But I can't imagine a better place just from, I mean, obviously I'm like not objective at all here, but just try to be objective. Like you're doing VR for defense, name a better person than Palmer.

1:59:11Like I'm super conflicted here, but like, let's be honest, like what other company are you giving it to? Like there's no one else. So anyway. This is our main advice for people is get conflicted. Get conflicted. Yeah, get conflicted. Get on the cap table and then start shilling, pumping your own bags. Let's go to Tim Urban, though, because he is a daily active user of the Apple Vision Pro. He says, I'm possibly the only person on earth who uses Apple Vision Pro 20 plus hours a week. As a writer, it's just such a massive upgrade to go from a 32-inch monitor to sitting on a mountaintop, totally immersed, looking at a 50-foot screen.

1:59:50There's just one problem. The idiotic way Apple designed their headset, all the weight sits on your face. This is uncomfortable and was on the way to making me look 80 years old. So he had a friend who 3D printed a headset that leads the headset to sit millimeters off of his face. It doesn't even touch his face. And so he says, Apple, please talk to Jonathan and get your stuff together. VR, even with a big heavy headset, does not have to be uncomfortable. It's all in the design. And I love this. I loved the Apple Vision Pro, but I agree. It was super heavy, and they needed to fix that. And it seems like Tibberman's got a solution.

2:00:28the what they nailed design wise was what people expected a VR headset to look like yeah but they but there were just so many like again that's not something that steve would have let out the door users were like oh it's heavy on my head it was a pepsi challenge product are you familiar with pepsi challenge no so pepsi challenge was this campaign run by pepsi in i think the late 90s early 2000s and basically what they did was they had blind taste tests with people like man on the street stuff yeah so they'd film a bunch of people come in and say taste pepsi taste coke and they'd give you a little like thimble full like two ounces of each people would taste the pepsi and they wouldn't know which one and overwhelmingly they would select pepsi and what was going on was that pepsi was sweeter and so over a one ounce taste right you would be like yeah i want the pepsi because that one tasted sweeter but when you gave people the whole can they were split much more 50 50 and sometimes even leaned coke because they were like i don't really want that much sweetness and so I call the Apple Vision Pro like a Pepsi challenge headset or Pepsi challenge product because it was an incredible experience for 10 minutes and that was the experience that most people had.

2:01:39They went in, they put it on and they were like, okay, I'm good or you give it to your friend or you blow your grandma's mind with it, that type of thing but beyond that, it didn't become a daily active product for many people and Apple is in the business of daily active use. You gotta be using your AirPods every day, your phone every day, your laptop every day. Like they're, they can't build a valuable consumer electronic product if you're not getting daily use. That's why Sona struggles because you can't set it up and then you just put it in a box and, you know. Well, speaking of products that I use every single day, we got to talk about eight sleep.

2:02:14And I want to show this ad that they ran with none other than Charles Leclerc, Charles Leclerc. Charles Leclerc. The F1 driver. He partnered with Eight Sleep. He says, the secret is out. Eight Sleep says, we are officially teaming up with Charles Leclerc, who trusts Eight Sleep to power his performance on and off the track. And this ad is incredible. We are going to recreate this 100%. I love how this was shot. It's super high energy. Ben, can we pull it up and play the full Eight Sleep Charles Leclerc ad on our stream? Trey in the chat goes, S-H-A-R-L. S-H-A-R-L. It's a good idea. People see the races, the speed, the moments on the podium.

2:03:06But what they don't see is what truly drives performance. For me, it's the work of the track. The preparation, the focus, the recovery. Sleep is the foundation. Whether it's long hours of travel or intense back-to-back races, staying sharp and recovered is what makes the difference it's so stylish sleep on eight sleep so quick you can tell the production was like a one day maybe two beautiful transition out of the sort of tech online x bubble 100 into one of the biggest global superstars in the world 100 and and it also still has that like high-paced frenetic social media vibreel like pacing to it which I love.

2:03:49It's not like, oh, they went to some agency and the agency said, oh, this is how you do an ad with F1. It's got to be, you know, this really long winded thing. It's like, no, really fun to watch, bunch of really cinematic shots. You can imagine, I can see, I can visualize the lens that they're using, how the camera is moving. That's just like handheld, really quick, you know, high faith, like fast paced editing. And I love it. And I can't wait to recreate that with us because he says champions sleep on eight sleep. And we like to say that podcasters sleep on eight sleep. And so you should be sleeping on eight sleep.

2:04:23Everyone should be sleeping on eight sleep. So go and get an eight sleep. We have a code too. We do. TBPN. TBPN. Go check it out. Oh, we got some hiring news from none other than Josh Ephraim. He says, today I'm joining Cooley LLP as special counsel in San Francisco to support and advise founders that are forging a new tech frontier. Building on the frontier is hard. Think sectors like crypto, AI, hard tech, biotech. This is in part because the legal landscape can be complex and dynamic, making it hard to navigate. He was a paradigm before, an absolute dog. He saw many founders struggle to find the right team of lawyers to help them navigate the challenges their businesses face.

2:05:05Working with crypto founders and investors on these challenges has made me uniquely equipped to help others navigate legal complexity. Yeah. I mean, crypto deals are next level in terms of legal complexity. It is not just the simple safe note and some Stripe Atlas stuff most of the time. And so Cooley is a leading law firm supporting companies in crypto, AI, biotech, and hard tech. This involves a full suite of experts in areas like securities and commodities, regulation, governance, finance, hard and soft intellectual property, money transmission, and commercial transactions, just to name a few.

2:05:37It's a privilege to have the opportunity to join my good friend and former paradigm colleague, Rodrigo Sierra And the team at Cooley works seamlessly together to support founders on the frontier of crypto and beyond and i'm ready to get to work I wouldn't have seen this opportunity or been equipped to address it without the support of the team at paradigm The team at paradigm has set the standard of how to build on the frontier of crypto and their leadership on the legal and policy front Is the best in crypto. So congrats to josh good luck on your new career as special counsel at Cooley. And hey, if you're looking for a startup lawyer, this guy knows how to post.

2:06:12So not many, none of the startup lawyers I know are great posters. So, but this was a lot to see it. This was great. Full breakdown. He's on X. You can go reply to this post. You can go tweet at him and say, Hey, DM him. He's not going to be able to give you legal advice in the DMS, but you can sign an engagement letter and I'm sure he'd be able to help you out then. Yeah. Let's go to Vanta. Uh, uh, uh, Savraj Singh says, trust Vanta. Wow. Thank you for this generous gift. This is a gift from your friends at Vanta. And it's a couple of, uh, uh, Valentine's day. It does look like drugs, but they are in the compliance business.

2:06:51So I imagine it's not drugs. Um, and people are kind of like, lol, that's so generous of them. And I think it's an idea that it's the world's smallest gift, but it's kind of a cute idea to just be like, what was the actual? I'm trying to remember. It's a Valentine's Day. A Valentine's Day thing. What do you expect from your SOC 2 compliance platform? Yeah, you're paying for compliance, not, you know. Yeah, they're not going to take you to F1 on a box at F1 on Valentine's Day. I mean, they probably will do that too. Yeah, maybe if you're a big client. But yeah, I mean, it's nice. And I think this is underrated that, hey, come up with something cute and fun and send it to every single customer you have, especially if you have high LTV.

2:07:35You know, every Vanta customer is probably making them thousands of dollars. So you can afford to send a couple bucks to every single person, send a package, send a T-shirt to every single one of your customers if you're in a B2B organization. Sure, if you're a consumer and, you know, your customer makes you 10 bucks, you can't send them very much free stuff. but uh better than just an email better than a uh you know um i don't know just like a discount code i think it's interesting uh kind of you know didn't go viral for the wrong reasons didn't go did what wasn't actually a fiasco for them i think it's just kind of cute it's cute i like a little gift yeah and it's funny that they have this cute little llama uh as a mascot and yeah i like vanta i'm down i'm into it uh speaking of other good vibes rahul zero interest rates uh posted pictures of evenings at Julius.

2:08:22And he posts this at 10 PM. And it's just guys being dudes hanging out in the office. Love it. And Raul's really gone on to step back from posting and memeing and trolling and just, you know, wind up building a business. EV. EV. Just focused on grinding. So we love to see that. Well, every time you post, Raul, if it's PG, we'll cover it here. Absolutely. And you can always go back into the product manager archive and see some absolute bangers product account so here's the hack to find the top the top bangers just go in a uh go in a new tab in chrome that's that you're not logged in and just put x.com slash their username won't work for him because he's locked his old account oh his old account is locked yeah all right well he's still got bangers on the new account truly archived uh but some of the greatest posts of that era came from him yep uh he was he was a fantastic poster and still still got it but you know much more focused on business these days but we love you raul and good luck on uh the next feature you're pushing or the next hire you're making or whatever you're doing next uh selah selah underscore who's been on the show before says how the f am i supposed to consistently down 200 grams of protein every single day without structuring my entire life around this i put this in because i feel like you have really good advice for this.

2:09:41You're always having some little protein snack. We ate burritos right before this as we typically do. Yep. I mean, the easiest way is to, uh, look, Blake, I have the PMF or die stream up here. Blake is just housing, uh, what looks like raw milk. So that's one way. Just, just, just don't drink water and just drink raw milk instead. I can't, I can't pull up the old data, but, uh, yeah, I mean, you need to eat, uh, buckets of chicken. And I mean, one easy way to get this is a single David protein bar has 28 grams of protein. And it's something like 110 calories. It's like uncannily crazy macros. So yeah, eat 10 of those a day.

2:10:25Boom, done. But yeah, you got to go, you got to figure out where to get the massive amounts of protein. You know, six eggs in the morning. we we talked about this we're gonna start slonking eggs on the show john's never slonked before i'm a slonk enthusiast uh we gotta get it's also eggs have become such a status symbol such a you know a safe harbor for wealth recently yeah uh and uh i think just having like a 36 pack carton here that we're just slonking i mean gabe right here he says uh pretty easy you have 16 we have 16 waking hours. You need to eat 12 and a half grams per hour. That's only two eggs.

2:11:09Set a recurring reminder on your phone. At the beginning of the hour, eat your two eggs. You can cook the 32 eggs the night before. They'll fit in a regular size cooler, which you can carry with you. Wow. 8 ,000 likes on that. I didn't realize this was such a banger. 64 ,000 likes on this post. Wow, Selah, killing it, dude. Good job. Very, very fun post. And yeah, you got to get your protein up. You got to get one gram of protein per pound of body weight at least. And so, yeah, a lot of steak, a lot of chicken, a lot of broccoli, and a lot of eggs, I guess. Let's stay with Selah because there's another good post here.

2:11:48Some ideas for huge value add quote tweets in case anyone needs them. You want to read some of these? They're pretty funny. yeah so if you are if you've ever ever had a post go really viral you're basically going to get people that that are quote tweeting it and adding their own little spin on it so these are typically some some ways that you know if you're quote tweeting something throw these in fascinating big if true hundred emoji interesting wow rocket ship target worrying hmm question mark exclamation nation point. Be sure to use these a lot. People will really appreciate the value you add.

2:12:25Kind of an Elon sub tweet, but I genuinely think this is a positive. When Elon does it, it's value add. Your phone is going to melt down. It's curatorial because Elon knows there's a lot of followers. Obviously, he has a huge boost in the algorithm. And so what he's doing is saying, I want everyone on X to see this post and I'm just going to quote tweet it so that it goes in. because by the way, retweets don't really work anymore. They just don't go out. So instead you need to quote tweet with something like this. And so I think this is a great strategy for growing your account. Just become a curator.

2:12:57Everything you see, quote tweet it, throw it in the timeline. I think you're going to wind up seeing a lot of growth, honestly. And that's just the meta. And you got to play the game on the field, unfortunately, or fortunately, you know, don't complain it. Don't hate the player, hate the game or vice versa. What is it? No, don't hate the game. Hate the player. I don't know. Anyway, you don't know at this point. Speaking of bezel sponsors, I don't know. There's no transition here, but we love bezel and bezel has been killing it on X. I'm so excited about this. We've been talking to them. They're obviously a partner on TBPN and we're very happy.

2:13:33I have a watch coming on bezel. Jordy's watch he bought on bezel and we recommend everyone install the bezel app and pick something up. And they do these amazing deep dives here on individual watches that are available for sale on bezel. And this one today is about the discontinued Patek Philippe Nautilus. It could finance your house or at least a very, very nice vacation. Here's what makes it special. It's complicated. And to be clear, this is like a, this is a hundred thousand dollar watch. So yeah, it's, it's very, you know, it's a lot of money, but it's a lot of watch a couple of weeks at Amon is, is, you know, basically equivalent.

2:14:10So So just get an idea of the value here. Beyond the standard timekeeping functions you'd expect from a six-figure watch, the reference number 5712-1A-001 boasts a date, moon phase, and power reserve complications. Will you use them every day? Probably not. But bragging rights don't come for the asking. Just like the most sought-after executions of the Gerald Genta-designed icon, this outgoing nautilus features stainless steel construction if a standard nautilus challenges convention in steel a complicated nautilus turns the wow factor up to 11. at the heart of this showstopper patek philippe's micro rotor equipped caliber 240 ps irm clu translation for the non watch pilled a comically drool worthy self-winding mechanical movement of the highest quality the stuff of Swiss dreams.

2:15:07Production of this reference has officially ended, meaning the ante just got upped on its collectability factor. If you're still waiting by the phone for your AD to call, you might be waiting for a while. I like it. So go follow Bezel and download the app and start curating a little wish list because that secondary sale might hit any day now, or you might hit some sort of thousand bagger and need to upgrade your daily driver. Real quick. Get unbezzled. There's a bunch of options at every price point and we can't recommend them highly enough. It's been a wonderful experience. They have a little like Domino's pizza tracker when you buy something.

2:15:48Shows the person, mailed it into them for authentication. Then they mail it to you. It's all very seamless. You can pay with wires. Which is so key because normally if you're buying a watch from some random dealer, you send all this money and then you're just like fingers crossed fingers crossed it's coming so yeah so it actually goes into escrow properly and uh and you can even uh so they have auctions as well right those are extremely tempting because you see these watches and you're like that's like half off of course so by the way yeah uh justin mares uh former brother we just messaged me and said or messaged talking to a hooded man uh at bezel about buying a hundred thousand dollar watch thanks for the intro so he's talking with ryan right now uh so the good thing is like watches are considered purchase you can go on bezel browse buy stuff but they actually will just let they'll talk to you which we recommend because it's like you're basically buying you know potentially something that's car priced you know as a like a car so having somebody you can talk to is great that's great anyway so funny i'm excited to hear what he winds up with uh that's fantastic news uh that's that's great news and then let's uh let's do joe weisenthal uh the stalwart over at odd lots podcast on blooper he says imagining twitter right before the asteroid hits have you been following this asteroid news at all yeah yes i mean i'm gonna go out on a limb is is nasa's like we are getting doged it's coming yeah how do we protect ourselves against that every single day just say there's a one percent greater chance eventually it's going to be like 99 chance we need nasa to save us like fund them so i think this is a survival tactic i think it's too conveniently timed and why are you getting why are you you why are you a hundred percent off week over week on the probability of something hitting in 2030, right?

2:17:47They also just picked 2030 out of the hat. Is it 2030? I thought it was like 2025 or something. No, I think it's a little bit up. Oh, 2032, yeah. NASA says there's now a 3.1 % chance of an asteroid will hit Earth in 2032, up from 2.6 % yesterday. This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received, surpassing 2.4 % in 2004. and Guju Viper says, can we bet on this poly market? And poly market says, yes, of course. And Joe Weisenthal says, imagining Twitter right before the asteroid hits, a furious debate about whether prediction markets did a better job than the formal modelers and the degree to which the former could exist without the latter, of course, referencing the election.

2:18:32And so I thought that was just a very, very funny post because of course people would be debating about that and betting on it right up until the end. but i think we're safe uh nasa actually has the bull case is that they've done asteroid deflection before and so uh this this model does not take into account that they might just send a rocket and like blow it up basically yeah uh which would be a good outcome and fortunately we have what seven years to figure it out that seems we got time that seems very doable uh we might we might have you know thousands of starships up there by then who knows um you could you could start a new company today for asteroid defense and big opportunity and and you want to be a hero if you want to be a hero main character every 15 years start an asteroid defense company yep we'll back it yeah it'd be great uh and so we got another post from wander their designer has been on a and this was interesting because I haven't list, I've never actually listed a property on Wander, but if you have a vacation home that you want to rent onto Wander to other people, their booking website is just the tip of the iceberg.

2:19:48They have a whole management platform and the management platform is crazy. It's integrated with all sorts of iCal URLs and smart home things. So you can generate new access codes for the garage door so that when someone comes in, they have a bespoke code that only works for that amount of time. And so they've done a lot of work to help property managers create a really seamless experience. One of the greatest trades you could do right now is say there's a ton of competition for nice homes on Airbnb because there's this huge range. And if I go and partner with a wanderer, I'm going to get a much better guest experience that I don't have to manage at all.

2:20:26and less competition because Wander at the moment, they don't have the same amount of density. They might have five homes in a specific market. So you're sort of, and they're working with the Technology Brothers to drive the demand side too. So we're here to drive supply and demand. Yeah. And I liked this picture. If you're looking for inspiration for where to stay, if you want to be a guest at a Wander, the next photo is just this crazy modern box house with a beautiful pool and a really wide open door. Great for entertaining. I thought that'd be a fun place to stay. So go surf on Wander. Tell them the technology brother sent you.

2:21:04And that's pretty much our show for today. Our producer, Ben, is a little under the weather. So wish him well. Thanks for being a trooper, Ben. We really appreciate you helping run the show today. Hope you're healing up soon. And leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. leave us a review with an ad and we'll read it on the show. Send us DMs, tag us, and whatever else is going on. And you can kick on over to the PMF or Die stream now. Go lock in. Go lock in. It's time. It's enough entertainment and news for the day. Yeah. It's time to lock in. Thanks for watching, everyone. Thanks, folks.

2:21:40Have a great day. See you tomorrow. See you tomorrow.