SpaceX IPO Gigastream

12 Jun 2026 · 1 h 45 min · 44 chapters

Ask about this episode

Ask anything about it. ChatGPT or Claude reads this page and answers with the times it was said.

Connect VO and ask about every podcast you hear, including the moments you saved. Add to ChatGPT · Add to Claude

In short

The hosts react to SpaceX’s IPO day trading and valuation, discuss bull/bear cases, and contextualize it with company history and leadership (Gwynne Shotwell). They also riff on IPO valuation methods, social-media commentary, and related investing products (e.g., a 2x SpaceX ETF).

Guests

No formal guests are interviewed in the transcript. The episode features recurring hosts/speakers (named in-chat as Tyler, Jordy, Nick, John, and others). A Wall Street Journal profile and a video clip of Gwynne Shotwell are referenced, but Shotwell is not interviewed live in the episode.

Guest backgrounds (as referenced)

Gwynne Shotwell is described as SpaceX’s president/COO with a background at Chrysler, Aerospace Corporation (technical work on military space R&D), Microcosm (business development), and SpaceX since 2002; she’s portrayed as a steady executive and defender of Elon Musk. The transcript also references Peter Thiel (chess anecdote) and various finance writers, but not as on-air guests.

Key claims

IPO is “successful” with a target day-one pop in the ~10–30% range; SpaceX is valued around ~$2.2–2.28T with shares around ~$172; Shotwell’s leadership and residual-capability strategy (building capacity ahead of demand) enabled Starlink/compute expansion; terrestrial valuation models don’t fit Elon-scale companies.

Notable examples

Shotwell’s NASDAQ speech (Falcon 1/9 milestones, 165 launches, Starlink compute scale); a 2004 Senate hearing where Elon argued for open competition; Morningstar and Financial Times valuation arguments; a Peter Thiel chess.com story; discussion of a synthetic 2x SpaceX ETF and IPO allocation scarcity.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

IPO Predictions and Expectations

0:30 to 1:49

Discussion about predictions for SpaceX's stock performance during its IPO.

“Okay, now we're getting the endless mirror.”

Debating Dog Walkers vs. Dentists

1:49 to 3:38

A humorous debate about choosing between a dog walker and a dentist.

“I was trying to pull an estimate out of you, and you were asking me 25 clarifying questions.”

Economic Implications of Professions

3:38 to 6:12

Exploration of the economic aspects of being a dog walker versus a dentist.

“Okay Every time I go in there They're like, looks good, boss Okay And I just head out.”

Gwen Shotwell's Speech at IPO

6:54 to 11:30

Clips from Gwen Shotwell's speech at the SpaceX IPO, celebrating milestones.

“CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches.”

History of SpaceX and Challenges

11:30 to 14:00

Discussion of SpaceX's history, challenges, and achievements over the years.

“It is truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America.”

Exploring SpaceX's Innovative Strategies

14:00 to 16:44

Learn how SpaceX built ahead of demand and created new business avenues.

“like a guy who made money on the internet now wants to do rocketry what's the chance that that works it sounds crazy and it was at the time she says I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me.”

Gwen Shotwell's Leadership and Influence

16:44 to 19:04

Discover Gwen Shotwell's role and influence at SpaceX and her unique superstitions.

“So at the current price, she is closer to being worth like$2 billion.”

Musk's Early Testimony on Space Policy

19:04 to 21:04

Uncover Elon Musk's early challenges and bold claims about spaceflight in 2004.

“If I have a single distraction, everything will fail.”

The Transformation of Space Travel

21:29 to 28:01

Analyze how Elon Musk's vision and SpaceX fundamentally changed the space industry.

“like on C-SPAN, I don't know if it's out there, but in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting gather on the, all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint.”

Valuation Metrics in Focus

28:01 to 30:30

Explore various valuation ratios and their relevance, particularly for SpaceX.

“Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price-to-Cosmos ratio.”
Show all 44 chapters

The Nature of Investment Risks

30:31 to 30:50

Discussion on the unpredictability of investing in companies like SpaceX and the challenges of traditional valuation.

“No, I haven't forgotten the decimal point.”

The Nature of Investment Risks

31:07 to 31:38

Discussion on the unpredictability of investing in companies like SpaceX and the challenges of traditional valuation.

“He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose.”

Elon Musk's Extraordinary Ordinary Life

31:38 to 36:33

Analyzing Elon Musk's journey from ordinary beginnings to extraordinary achievements.

“I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too much.”

The SpaceX IPO Discussion

36:34 to 42:01

Examining the implications and potential outcomes of the SpaceX IPO based on current valuations and market sentiments.

“I said, Elon Musk is a very ordinary guy.”

Anticipation for SpaceX IPO

42:01 to 43:01

Discussion about the excitement and uncertainty around the SpaceX IPO.

“McAllister Higgins says, I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV.”

Historical IPO Performances

43:15 to 45:05

Analysis of historical IPOs and their performance compared to SpaceX.

“Split adjusted NVIDIA IPO at$0.04 and is at$200 today.”

Market Caps and Expectations

45:06 to 46:29

Discussion on market expectations for SpaceX's IPO and comparisons with other tech giants.

“Which is 100 quadrillion pennies, which is a lot.”

SpaceX ETF and Trading Dynamics

46:30 to 47:55

Exploration of the new SpaceX ETF and its implications for investors.

“I mean, it's much higher than 162, right?”

137 Ventures' Investment Journey

48:27 to 49:48

Overview of 137 Ventures' extensive investment in SpaceX and their success.

“Big shout out to our friends at 137 Ventures.”

Market Demand and Allocation Challenges

49:49 to 51:41

Discussion on the high demand and allocation difficulties in acquiring SpaceX shares.

“Congrats to Christian Garrett, congrats to Justin and the rest of the team over there.”

Investor Reactions and Market Dynamics

51:42 to 55:17

Insights into investor reactions and dynamics surrounding the SpaceX IPO.

“I was your Uber driver three months ago.”

Nikita Beer and TBPN's Trust

55:18 to 56:01

Discussion on Nikita Beer's journey with TBPN and the trust in their operations.

“He started getting into some fist fights, swinging.”

The Shadow Ban Speculation

56:01 to 57:20

Discussion on audience reactions to Nikita's actions and trust in the X team.

“And I'd be like, what are they mad about?”

SpaceX Revenue Predictions

57:31 to 59:08

Discussion on SpaceX's potential revenue growth and market impacts.

“He says, people ask me how I stay so optimistic.”

Predictions on SpaceX IPO

59:39 to 1:02:38

Hosts share their predictions about SpaceX's IPO performance and outcomes.

“That's a good one Well, John, it's noon.”

LMNT's Legal Battle with Oasis

1:02:39 to 1:10:02

Overview of LMNT's lawsuit against Oasis for misleading consumers.

“Well, there are some other stories that we should run through now that the SpaceX IPO has settled a little bit.”

Misinformation and Brand Impact

1:10:02 to 1:13:11

Exploration of misinformation around brands and its effects on consumer choices.

“And so this wasn't something like slight issue, boom, lawsuit.”

Consumer Trust and Brand Integrity

1:13:11 to 1:17:44

Discussion on how consumer trust is affected by misinformation and brand practices.

“it's a rags to riches story if you told me that was possible I wouldn't have believed you It's absolutely wild.”

Entrepreneurial Challenges in CPG

1:17:44 to 1:19:18

Analysis of the challenges faced by entrepreneurs in the consumer packaged goods industry.

“was a front for big CPG to try to keep down upstarts.”

Naming Conventions and New Ventures

1:19:18 to 1:20:14

Humorous take on unconventional naming conventions in startups.

“I mean, Shotwell was at the Aerospace Corporation, which sounds like a fake company and like a movie, but it's a real company that's been operating since 1960.”

Celebrating Cancer Survivors

1:20:14 to 1:20:45

Celebration of cancer survivors and community support through sponsorship.

“Zane from Knox Metal, he's been on the show.”

AI and Prank Calls

1:20:45 to 1:24:05

Discussion on AI's role in prank calls and the implications of technology in communication.

“Strickland Auto Group paid for the gong in the hospital.”

Discussion on Humanoid Robots

1:24:05 to 1:25:05

The hosts discuss a video featuring humanoid robots and their capabilities.

“Or you call 20 people until you get someone that has an LG smart fridge.”

Health Tracking Devices

1:25:29 to 1:26:31

The hosts critique health tracking devices and their effectiveness.

“Where it's like a brightly lit room of doctors and experts watching each screen, just being AI researchers.”

Electric Vehicles and Their Future

1:26:31 to 1:27:45

A conversation about new electric vehicles and their designs.

“and X is turning this into a whole news story ditching whoop tracker cured financiers sleep worries financiers That's hilarious.”

Debate on Car Styles and Performance

1:27:45 to 1:32:14

The hosts debate the aesthetics and performance of various car models.

“It has steering It has like candle bars.”

AI and Virtual Relationships

1:32:14 to 1:36:33

Discussion on Apple's stance on AI and virtual relationships.

“There's nothing that's like track focused really.”

Closing Thoughts and Shout-Outs

1:36:33 to 1:38:03

The hosts wrap up with final thoughts and a shout-out to a friend.

“This problem that has been plaguing the AI industry.”

Market Insights on SpaceX IPO

1:38:03 to 1:38:23

Discussion about the performance and expectations of the SpaceX IPO.

Shout-Out to Bo Nickel's UFC Fight

1:38:23 to 1:39:06

Celebrating friend of the show, Bo Nickel, and his upcoming UFC fight.

“anyway anyways i think that's a good place to end the show okay uh john wants to keep going I always want to keep going.”

Discussion on Richard Mille Watches

1:39:06 to 1:40:53

A playful debate on the aesthetics and designs of Richard Mille watches.

“And, Bo, you're probably cutting weight right now, not listening to this, but John's just joking around.”

The Shrek Edition RM Watch Concept

1:40:53 to 1:43:15

Exploring a humorous concept for a Shrek-themed watch and its appeal.

“There are some watches that have liquid inside.”

Texas Roadhouse Recommendations

1:43:15 to 1:44:01

Recommendations for dining at Texas Roadhouse, especially for World Cup visitors.

“Well, the Japanese World Cup tourists have discovered Texas Roadhouse, and they're calling it the best cost performance steak.”

Weekend Wishes and Show Wrap-Up

1:44:01 to 1:44:41

Closing thoughts, congratulating IPO participants and show sign-off.

“And congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO and printed a nice 19.44 % gain today.”
Hear the part that matters, and keep it.Open this episode in VO. Double tap your headphones to save a moment as you listen.
Get VO free

Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:29You're watching TVPN. So the price is up there. Okay, now we're getting the endless mirror. You can call up the price. Crazy. Here we go. We'll be tracking throughout the show, so stay tuned. It's a$2.28 trillion company now. $172. $172 a share. I had Tyler and Jordy submit confidential estimates for how—where the stock would be at noon, effectively. Jordy went with a market cap-based estimate. Tyler went with a share price estimate, I think. Which is what I was told. I went with a percentage-based estimate. You can translate between all of them. We'll get there. But the stock's doing well. The IPO is successful, I would say.

1:12There's been a bunch of chatter back and forth. Bull cases, bear cases. But overall, it's hard not to look at this as a success. Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one, doesn't want it to go up 100%, if we're in 10, 20, 30 % range for something this big, that just feels like everything came together properly. And so, so far, looks really, really good. Healthy. So at noon, we will check in with our predictions and see who won. There is an exciting prize for the winner, by the way. It will be revealed at noon as well. There's been a ton of coverage uh we can uh uh we can pull up this video from gwen shotwell who is the president of spacex and has been on an absolute tear building the company for basically its entire existence what what are you laughing at i didn't know what your prediction was did you see what it is yeah nick just shared it he did this guy over here this is a funny guy over here funny guy over here this This is why you trade bits, not stocks.

2:21I was trying to pull an estimate out of you, and you were asking me 25 clarifying questions. The purpose is content, to have a conversation. Just pick a number. And you're like, oh, well, does it count where it opens or where it opens after? I just saw your positioning was confusing. I was just like, just throw out a number. We've got to have a discussion about this. There's nothing that crazy at stake. The price per share. Sure. Everything's on the line, John. Everything is on the line. I was laughing about how you wouldn't take a side on the dog walker versus the dentist. I was like, dog walker, dentist, blind, who are you going?

2:57And you were like, I can't possibly. I couldn't possibly, in the name of good television, just pick a random side for the purpose. Dog walker or dentist. Yeah. Beach debate. The beach debate. We never got your answer. And you were like, I need more information. I can't possibly make a call. It's such a tough one. Because I don't No, no, no Here's why it's tough for me Here's why it's tough for me, John Okay, explain I have never in my life Hired or worked with a dog walker Yeah My family growing up We had a couple dogs Yeah We walked our dog Yeah Like we never You've been to the dentist I was the dog walker Yeah, you've been to You're not your own dentist though Dentist So why are you just going dentist?

3:35I've never had a cavity Every time I go in there I guess I'm blessed Okay Every time I go in there They're like, looks good, boss Okay And I just head out. So equally useless. Equally useless profession. So flip a coin, it's TV. Useless profession. No, I just don't have any connection. I need slightly more. Why don't you fall back to the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog walking industry? Like if you had to pick a job, if you were trying to get a bag. I respect dog walkers. Oh, you would go dog walker. Oh, you would be an elite dog walker over a mid-dentist? Here's kind of my thinking.

4:11Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's a guy in my neighborhood who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. I'm like, who? Like, a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work. They're just home all day. Like, why aren't you walking your dog? But I think it's amazing that this guy is just like. He's printing. Clearly printing all day long, just going for walks. Hanging out. He's listening to music. Hanging out. Super nice guy. He picks up the. Sounds like you're going dog walker. Picks up the poop when they poop on my lawn. Yeah, that's great. I appreciate it. We have a, you know, maybe wish you wouldn't do that, but we have a fine relationship.

4:45But then dentists, I could get really excited about a dentist if they were. You're still torn. You're still not taken aside. Private equity backed roll up. Okay. Okay. Well, that's an option. The dentist was kind of a figurehead for some PE firm to be able to deploy huge amounts of capital into rolling up family practices. Yes. and raising prices. What if you're a dog walker, you earn so much money, you start being able to buy small dentist shops, rolling them up, you flip from dog walking into dentistry. Well, that would be the way, we don't know much about this story, but we do know there's a conflict.

5:26But that would be the way for the dog walker to strike back, is buy the dentist back. So final answer. What side are you picking? If the dog walker will commit to... No conditionals. why can't i have conditions you can't have conditions because that's the rules that i'm laying down you got to pick one dog walker dentist whose side are you on dog walker there we go finally we got but i'm gonna put but i'm going i'm gonna put uh heavy the whole point is that is a real a serious amount of pressure i'll just take dentist and i'm gonna put a defend that and steel man i'm gonna put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker okay and i will provide financial backing to acquire the dentist's practice and shut it down because i know they have i know they have some conflict yeah and uh it sounds like it's over the beach it's really not that personal yeah yeah and access to the beach but i think there's an opportunity to make it personal okay and i think i think at this point if they're getting written up in the journal about this conflict i think they should make it they got to figure out how to make it personal and i I think buying the dentist practice and then shutting it down or.

6:38No, no, you can raise an SPV. Oh, together. And I would be willing to, you know, I need to meet the guy first, but I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing for the. I got you. Well, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. Let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell Standing at the NASDAQ On the day of the SpaceX IPO Can we play it on the big board? I think we might be able to play it on the big board Stock is doing well Holding steady at$2.27 trillion Or maybe split screen Whatever production team wants to do We will do as long as the folks at home can see Gwen Shotwell giving her speech to I gotta say, Tyler is looking like a young Kimball Musk He's so excited to be here.

7:29He's channeling. Today we make history again. We have a history of making history. So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way. We launched. We launched. Falcon 9 launched Starlink satellites to orbit. We have a history of making history. So what company would do such a thing on the day that they open in the public market? SpaceX would. Right? I am so proud of this team. Today, we're 24, not today. This year, we are 24 years old. Elon founded this company in 2002, initially, to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the moon, and even beyond.

8:17We've done, we've not quite gotten to Mars. We're almost at the moon. But let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished. 2008, six weeks after a failure of Flight 3 Falcon 1, we got the first liquid-fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay. Yay. By the way, I should have prefaced this with, everyone said we could never get to orbit. Check. But it was a little rocket. Then everyone said, well, you can't get a real rocket to orbit. Two years later, we got a real rocket to orbit, Falcon 9. Oh, well, you'll never get to the space station, because that's what we really want to do, right?

9:00We want to take humans outside the bounds of Earth. But you'll never get astronauts to the space station. Check. We did that, too. Doubters, right? Oh, you'll never fly Falcon 9 enough. You'll never get to production. Another one. 165 launches last year. Check.

9:22Yeah! You'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars. We build one, we've flown it, and this year I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle and we'll recover the second stage. We've already recovered the first stage and reflown it. So good on you all for that too.

9:47With the merger, the acquisition of XAI, we now as a group own the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet which will help us truth seek and understand the universe.

10:08So So we're about 22 ,000 strong. I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening, totaling almost a billion dollars. So thank you for that too. But really the thank yous go to all of you for hanging in there, for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt to achieve historic things sometimes every day multiple times a week thank you all of you for doing this and I hope today is a day that you feel great about and that you're celebrating take a moment now the Falcon recovery team can't take a moment today but everybody else can and I hope Falcon recovery team could take a moment a little bit later yeah and also thank Thank you to the families, the partners, the plus ones, the children, the brothers, the sisters, the parents that have lived through long nights, that have seen launch failures, that have seen AI compute go down, that have seen the trials and tribulations of this incredibly difficult business.

11:17Thank you so much for hanging in there. I know I can't do this without my incredible partner. Can we get a standing O? In all seriousness. Congratulations to the SpaceX team. It is truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. Started in a little town called El Segundo. And Glenn Shotwell, one of the most impressive executives. of the modern era. Crazy. And we all should have known, just due to the nominative determinism. Yeah. If you're going to build a rocket company, hire somebody to run the company with the last name Shotwell, because she has shot quite well.

12:15Yeah. She worked at Chrysler and then began work at El Segundo. That's actually, people like to say, oh, non-traditional background. Uh, somewhat. Chrysler. Yeah, I mean… Not exactly like a target. Yeah, well, she worked at the Aerospace Corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts. Early project she worked on was STS-39. During a 10-year tenure, she worked on thermal analysis, worked both in space systems engineering and project management positions. She left the Aerospace Corporation in 1998 to become director of the Space Systems Division at Microcosm Inc., a small rocket company in El Segundo.

12:54There she was on the executive committee and responsible for business development. In 2002, she joined SpaceX and she reflected on that later. She said, when I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, I was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy. Leaving Elon on red for weeks seems extremely risky. It feels like every decision he makes now is like, go, no, go today. Get back to me right now. Back then, obviously, SpaceX was very young, less leverage, less energy, less momentum. So these decisions would be drawn out. She said, it seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded.

13:37I think she was starting a family around that time. And so it was risky from a career perspective. She said, at the time, I was a part-time single mother. yeah and this was just too far out of my comfort zone she was used to bigger corporations more established companies she's going to this small startup that has you know it's at that time it's like a guy who made money on the internet now wants to do rocketry what's the chance that that works it sounds crazy and it was at the time she says I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me. I was being a total idiot. Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed.

14:18What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing. Be a part of something exciting. What a fantastic run. And I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working. Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost. So SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for, but then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of internet connected satellites, Starlinks, and develop another huge business on top of it.

15:06And so this idea of building, building, building, and then finding the different opportunities. For a while, SpaceX point-to-point was the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years. The idea that you get on a spaceship, a starship, in New York and you'd be in Tokyo in 30 minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land. And I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a backseat in the S1, took a backseat in the marketing materials for the company, but something that is still possible if you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost reductions to the rocket launches.

15:50Why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in 30 minutes? Sounds pretty cool and probably, oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for years and decades and never really worked out. The Wall Street Journal is also reflecting on Gwen Shotwell. They say, 19 things to know about SpaceX president. She's a diplomat. She's seen as a steady hand engendering trust in the company from those who have been unsettled by Musk's actions. You're worried about his politics. You're worried about his other companies. Well, Well, Shotwell has you covered with a very steady hand on the tiller at a very large company with 22 ,000 employees, as she mentioned.

16:35She's a billionaire after the IPO. Shotwell's net worth will be well north of$1 billion. She owns about 12.6 million shares. She translates Musk's lofty ideas. That part is a little bit crazy. Which one? To me. Which one? So at the current price, she is closer to being worth like$2 billion. Okay. But still. To be that early and that critical and not wind up with a 5 % stake or 1 % stake. Not even, yeah, like something more like a 1 % stake. A lot of dilution, you know, big company. A lot of dilution, but. A lot of secondary. She might have been selling. Selling. Selling with Zy. It was like, yeah, we actually started out with a 40 % stake.

17:19I'm really bullish. We gave her 40%. I'm really, I've never been more bullish. But you did sell 95%. In the latest tender. Yeah, that is good because, I mean, Elon's hitting one T and she's just hitting one B. Well, yeah. Shotwell was paid$86 million last year, mostly in the form of stock options. She's one of eight board members at SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades. She has a specific ritual for launch days. Because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit, She now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch.

18:01She said it at 2020. Scotland mindset. That's pretty elite. I like is what's that called? Where you're superstitious. Superstitions. Rare, potentially underrated. What do you think? Do you have any superstitions? I mean, it's in the word super. Yeah. Superpowers. Superstition. Superstition. That's another one. Anyway. Giga. Whether you're long, whether you're short, SpaceX, express yourself on public.com. Investing for those who take it seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service. What's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like it.

18:43I think it's quite distracting. Distracting to have a superstition. Yeah. Yeah, kind of like could it could end up being a pretty big waste of time. So I avoid them. So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't going to go well. So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow. I understand that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So maybe I am. So maybe I am. Yeah. If I have a single distraction, everything will fail. She's been a staunch defender of Musk. She worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil.

19:17She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass. She doesn't love social media. I like his in-person self better than his Twitter self. In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times. She has a much different social media presence than her boss posting sparingly exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused. She was raised outside of Chicago. As a teenager, she decided she would become an engineer. Wait, you can imagine, like, she's reading X. She's, like, crying emojis. quoting six more posts crying emojis he's never crying yeah at the office he never does that he's like pretty logged in actually this feels like i feel like i don't know this guy he's always crying yeah well when she first joined spacex she was vp of business development so not in the in like a co-founder chief executive type role on day one and so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time.

20:16But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical$1.6 billion NASA cargo transport deal. So I looked up, she was SpaceX's seventh employee. Wow, that's pretty early. She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within 10 years. She sold time. She lives on a 1 ,000-acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas. She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children. She put a Starlink mini-terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her 40-minute commute without the call dropping.

20:54Interesting. Jimmy Sani also went back in time and told a story in the Wall Street Journal about one of the early days in the SpaceX journey. Vindication for young Elon Musk, he wrote. In 2004, he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry. First, before we get into this, let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agents to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. So this was an interesting story. And I wonder if we could find the actual video, like on C-SPAN, I don't know if it's out there, but in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting gather on the, all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint.

21:44Could America still reach space without the space shuttle? Of course, we do it like every couple of days. Thanks to SpaceX. The shuttle was grounded. 14 astronauts had died in two disasters and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step. Senator Bill Nelson, who had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that Without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed. Witnesses came in two panels. First, you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administrator for spaceflight, accompanied by a retired admiral.

22:24After NASA spoke, industry did. They got a vice president from ATK, another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the Aerospace Group. Are you looking for a candle, a nuke one way or another? This is brutal for my prediction. This is brutal. I'm feeling pretty good. But it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable. I think this is a very well-managed project from start to finish. And then now it's just like a trillion-dollar company, so it's hard for it to move super. I don't know. I just think that if you were expecting 10 % swings up and down.

23:04I'm assuming ShareCount is pretty small though, right? Like at least that they're being traded. Sure. Sure. Very, very small. So the last person on the industry panel, you got Lockheed, ATK, Aerospace Corp. It's Elon Musk. AP in the chat. Wait for dip. Wait for dip. $5. Can you imagine? It's just nukes down to$5. So on the second panel, the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed, other industry folks. You got a 32-year-old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier, and he'd yet to launch anything. It was Elon Musk. He had a more immediate complaint. NASA had just awarded a rival a quarter of a billion dollar contract without open competition, and his company had protested.

23:50So everyone's there to debate like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle? And he's there being like, what about my contract? He shows up to this thing to testify, and they keep having to try and keep him on track. It's a very interesting way to get his word in edgewise. So the senators thought the matter was off limits. This hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not about your contract. It was under government review already, and they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet. Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting, I think Mr.

24:26Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive. It was, in fact, not competitive. The chairman tried again, let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues, Elon. Stay on message. And Elon says, absolutely. But his correction was safely on the record. He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear. The past few decades, Elon Musk told them, had been a dark age for human spaceflight. One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad. The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one. It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half-built rocket.

25:05He was dismissed. He had made the same case the summer before, in one of his first Capitol Hill appearances. At a 2003 hearing on commercial spaceflight, there was a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumpter, a creative destruction. The industry had lost it, not one successful new entrant in four decades. Space, Mr. Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo, while every other technology from computing and the internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers and open competition. Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically.

25:40The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib. Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local SEALs at$10 ,000 a flight, even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13 % in a single year. He says the seals are doing fine. Let me launch with the population with that population growth rate. Mr. Mr. Musk observed it seems clear that if anything the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac Dropping lines dropping zingers on Capitol Hill people laughed. It was laughter you gave a Clever outsider, but we can grade that clever Outsiders argument now because more than 20 years have passed and the record is in the fear that haunted that 2004 hearing dependence on Moscow was not ended by the shuttle, but by Mr.

26:31Musk's company. In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil. 2020. Closing a nine-year gap in which the United States paid Russia as much as$90 million a seat to hitch a ride. The semi-reusable rocket Mr. Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again. Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads. On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. What are you laughing at, Jordy Hayes? I'm laughing at the comments on this post we made earlier. Oh, what did we say?

27:08Breaking the pride of France, Mistral AI. It's exploring a raise of$3 billion at a$20 billion euro valuation.

27:19Are you getting in trouble? You have such a bone to pick with France. You're always taking shots at France. What did France do to you? I love France. This is beautiful. I genuinely, it's one of my favorite countries in the entire world. I love it. But people are having fun, poking fun at France. But I just think I'm kind of laughing at my own bit, a little bit. Because the card just says France, right? It says French. French. French. Let's put it up. We will. Well, the Financial Times has every possible take on SpaceX today. Scroll down. How's it doing? Good times. Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price-to-Cosmos ratio.

28:13Terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon. Last June, he wrote a column with the headline, An Entry-Level Guide to Valuing Stocks. He also provided a link to a simple valuation tool that even my children's new hamster could use. What? How can a hamster use this? Interesting. I guess he's joking around. That's a weird line to throw in. But discounted cash flow models require that cash moves in and out of a business to be net positive in order to calculate what a company is worth. Unless you want a negative number for some reason, like in divorce court. Hence, a few years after I became a portfolio manager in the mid-90s, equity analysts trying to flog dot-com stocks began using price-to-sales ratios.

Read the full transcript

28:53When those looked too silly, they invented price-to-clicks or price-to-eyeballs. And you know how that ended. No wonder investors still prefer cash flow-based valuation methodologies over anything else. That said, there are legitimate reasons to employ other metrics, including price-to-sales ratios. The latter are handy as a sense check when profits are temporarily depressed, distorted, or cyclical, provided that the revenues are real and measurable. If a price-to-earnings ratio appears odd, comparing price-to-sales ratios within an industry can be reassuring. Moreover, plenty of firms operate at a loss, and thus using earnings multiples doesn't work, period.

29:30This can go on for years due to a heavy investment in business. Amazon was founded in 1994 and didn't make a profit until 2003. And a lot of people are taking a victory lap today over Asweth Demodrin, the NYU finance professor, who I have a ton of respect for, but he was very skeptical about the Tesla IPO when that went out. And everyone reasonable in the finance world was saying, well, the valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals compared to any other car company, compared to any other company. Doesn't make sense. But of course, the revenues did grow. The earnings did materialize. But they did wind up making money, although the stock is still very highly valued because Elon's pitches a very large vision.

30:10Elon companies can stay disconnected from the fundamentals longer than you can stay solvent. And that's what Stuart Kirk is arguing in the Financial Times. He says terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon. And that is something that I think a lot of people have internalized. Trust the plan. Yes. So trust the plan. Enter SpaceX on 95 times. 95 times revenue, I believe. No, I haven't forgotten the decimal point. My prediction is cooked. It was looking so good an hour ago. Too bad. But let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB.

30:51Don't just build AI. Own the data platform that powers it. I seriously couldn't believe it when I first divided the target valuation of$1.8 trillion by the last 12 months of revenues. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. This is the most financial time article I've ever read. But he's not saying I almost spit up. But no, that's different. So a spit take is one thing. You spit out your coffee. What is that? He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose. That's brutal. Like that's very rare. You got to be so drunk for that to happen. That sounds like you have to be really drunk to have the alcohol come out of your nose and not just spit it up or throw up.

31:38I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too much. I laughed so hard I threw up. Well, no. I don't know. I may be drinking a lot. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. Then I laughed some more. This guy is really taking shots. You know that he just made this up entirely because as anyone had liquid, has anyone been drinking something started laughing and had yeah but out of the mouth is one thing spit take is different than out of your nose your nose is a new new level new level anyway yeah mechanically i i i don't buy it yeah i think he tried to i think he tried to really like illustrate this i think so well he continues he says then i laughed some more when i thought of all those analysts who had who had to justify that their multiple in their buy recommendations to clients.

32:33It was easy for Goldman Sachs, however. It simply forecasted revenues to rise 25-fold by 2030. It makes me wonder why they didn't push for 50-fold or why not sales up to 100 times in four years. SpaceX could have raised double or quadruple the money. After all, the IPO offering was at least three times oversubscribed. And on Friday, trading opened with the stock up 11%. How might a sensible person, which excludes conflicted global bankers and meme investors who jump on anything from marijuana to the metaverse to Bitcoin and AI, value SpaceX then? Frankly, I haven't a clue. This guy's writing like the most non-article.

33:11By which I mean I have no idea how anyone can arrive at the current valuation. And it's not that the outlook for SpaceX's core launch and satellite communications business as well as artificial intelligence is largely theoretical at this point. It's that even insanely bullish assumptions get me nowhere near the share price. Perhaps I'm not dreaming big enough. Space is larger than Earthling investors such as me are used to analyzing. Then again, I've just read the Morningstar research report from a couple weeks ago that arrived at a valuation of$780 billion, less than half of SpaceX's market cap.

33:41And it was wildly optimistic. Morningstar wrote of prodigious cost advantages in launch, reaching$18 billion in sales within a decade at 20 % margins. for even the more sensible Starlink business. Tens, not necessarily hundreds of billions of dollars in annual growth over the coming decade are penciled in at operating margins, potentially exceeding 75%. What a fantastic telecom business Starlink is truly. But of course, when you're dealing with trillions, you need to be the most exceptional. In their moonshot scenario, ones and zeros somehow arrive, somehow survive the battering from solar radiation.

34:17There are meaningful cost advantages over data centers on Earth. and SpaceX wins a fifth of the forecast market for AI infrastructure computing capacity. In a worst-case scenario, it's a dud with the base case 4 % of capacity. The latter is given a 50 % chance of happening. Failure has a 43 % waiting, and the moonshot scenario, the rump. But even that 7 % chance adds$93 billion to the overall valuation equivalent. A whole lot of mumbo jumbo. A whole lot of mumbo jumbo. You're not buying it. It's a collection of some great businesses, some businesses that have a lot of potential. It is a valuation that only one man on earth can achieve.

35:01Well, if you're trying to take your company public, you've got to do it on the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. There's a whole bunch more posts. There's a post here. Officially the first trillionaire in the entire world in USD terms. Someone said that because of hyperinflation, there have been many trillionaires in other countries denominated in other foreign currencies. I think Zimbabwe is among them. Potentially the German Reichmark at one point minted a trillionaire potentially. I wanted to pull up this post from Founders Fund because it was so inspiring for me.

35:38they posted this this morning and they said it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary and i've always just seen elon as such a normal ordinary guy right like he's just like an ordinary guy he's not he hasn't been ordinary for the last 20 years but he was he was 30 years ago 40 years ago like he was like he was like a sass founder with like a a decent business that sold and IPO'd. He was a good unicorn founder of today. Yeah, and I don't view good unicorn founders of today as ordinary people. Okay, go back further. Almost every time you meet them, they're elite on a couple dimensions.

36:19Oh, okay. And so my argument is that Elon was at no point in his life would you have met him and thought, yeah, it's just an average Joe. Ordinary guy? Just an ordinary guy. I don't know. Anyways, I was texting our friends over at FF poking a little fun at this. I said, Elon Musk is a very ordinary guy. This inspired me. So, I don't know. There is a lot of ordinariness. You know what's not ordinary? His Diablo abilities. FF's investment of$20 million at a$200 million valuation into SpaceX. SpaceX did get diluted, but it is still I think like the best venture investment of All wait, no, I thought it was more like it's 50.

37:09I thought it was more like 80 80 I think it's closer to 8 trillion cents I think they made 8 trillion cents got a trillion pennies PT need a win. What was the return in basis? He needed a win. He needed a win. Because apparently. What was the return in basis points? People can pick it out with him on chess.com. Have you seen this? Oh, yeah. Do we need to play this? We need to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's chess.com account, played him, and won. Do you have the video pulled up? It's in the timeline deeper down there. Can we pull up? Yeah, I just sent it. Here we go.

37:50it is from Tuck Gessner on Instagram he says he found Peter Thiel's chess account played him I mean we already spoiled it I don't know if anybody knows about this but Peter Thiel has a chess.com account with his real name under which he's played over 50 ,000 games over the past 10 years and the reason I know it's him is first of all his friends are all these Silicon Valley and ex-Stanford founders And I put this account into a database called Opening Tree, which allows me to cross-reference his most played moves with his public tournament games that he played in the 90s. And it's all the same stuff.

38:32So our game went E4, E5, Knight F3, Knight F6. I played the Stafford Gambit. And on move 6, he fell into a very basic opening trap. Well, no, no. He didn't fall for the Gambit, but he fell for a classic blunder. And the point is that when he takes back, played Bishop takes F2, winning his queen by force. Yeah, see. So most players would just give up, they would just resign in this position, but Peter Thiel does never give up. played on, and a few moves later he made another very elementary mistake. He played bishop takes a7, and this is the kind of move that you see beginners make. Very rarely does anybody over 2 ,000 not see that you can just play b6 afterwards, which traps the bishop, and I'm just going to scoop it up in a few moves.

39:15Even here he didn't resign. He kept playing on until I checkmated him shortly thereafter. I find this really funny because Peter Thiel has a reputation of being a sort of chess genius. So I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel who falls for basic opening traps. I think this guy's a chess genius. I don't know. He has moves. He uses to resign. You can also just look at his rating and you can see it. Elon. Yeah. Ordinary guy. Ordinary guy. Proof that they're all ordinary guys. Elon never gives up, right? Famous picture of him standing there. Everything's in shambles. Never gives up.

39:50Also makes elementary mistakes sometimes. Picking, you know, accusing the president of things, you know, on social media, right? Kind of an elementary mistake, you know, if you're a government contractor. Certain lawsuits. That's right. Elementary mistakes. And so, again, I think PT never gives up. Makes some elementary mistakes. There's a lesson there. Lesson in there. Lesson in there, for sure. Let's pull out this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish.

40:34So what is this saying? What's going to happen here? This is technical analysis. Okay, this is technical analysis. and he's saying that it's going to pop on IPO day, sell off for three straight years, and then go to the moon? Is that this? And he's basically saying that everyone's going to be taking victory laps if the stock trades down in 2026, 2027, 2028, but then ultimately they will all be upset. I mean, there are some crazy articles out there that are like the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago. He can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself. Yeah, no one's buying the cars.

41:14No one's buying the cars. And it's like, well, they're buying the stocks. So it's going to be okay, I guess. Founders Fund Investment at$200 million might be the best venture investment in history. A lot of that is just the holding to fruition. like because the early investors in Google or Microsoft or Amazon, like a lot of them distributed an IPO at like a 5 billion valuation. Even some of the founders, right? Bill Gates. Oh yeah. He sold too early, right? Paper hands. No, the only thing is I do think Masa hasn't beat. I think Masa hasn't beat with Alibaba. It was like 20 million into 70 billion.

41:51Sure. On a shorter time horizon. Ooh, Masa get mocked. Anyway. PT mocked again. Yeah, think about even more risk. McAllister Higgins says, I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV. So I bought into Alibaba for$20 million in 2000. By the 2014 IPO, it was worth$75 billion. Okay, well, game's not over. It's young. They can make it all back. So I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV, and I'm looking forward to the SpaceX IPO. In much the same way, a golden retriever looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved. No clue how cars work. Unsure if going to the park or getting neutered. And Matt Grimm says, Godspeed, sir.

42:38It's actually so funny to be in that position where you just have no idea what you're getting. So what you'll wind up getting. This is a new format, by the way. Yeah. Oh, wait. Oh, this whole golden retriever thing? No, like I predict there's a bunch of other ways to apply this. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. I like it. I like it. Pick the next post while I tell everyone about console. Console builds AI agents that automates 70 % of ITHR and finance for giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Brad Gerstner is sharing some historical performance of IPOs.

43:19Split adjusted NVIDIA IPO at$0.04 and is at$200 today. Apple at$0.10. $292 today. These big tech companies have all delivered fantastic returns. And the question is, why is he posting this today? Is he putting SpaceX in this category? I mean, one other Elon Musk company is in this category. So that's certainly the pitch here. Not a super fair, not that he's comparing to SpaceX or trying to allude that there's any connection here. But all of these companies IPO'd before the private markets had evolved to capture massive amounts of the value creation. Amazon is a$2.5 trillion company. SpaceX is IPO-ing at$2.2 trillion.

44:11When Amazon IPO'd, it was not as big as ExxonMobil. It was not jumping directly into the top five, top 10 biggest companies in the world. And so there's always this question of, okay, where will... Like it's not, it's always interesting when a company IPOs and you're like, oh, they could be a disruptor and they could flip something. Like I was always thinking about this, like Figma, obviously stocks up and down. But like there was a very clear like, well, what if Figma flips Adobe? Like, OK, you know, is that possible? Is that your thesis? Well, Figma IPO is at 20 and Figma is at 100. Like you can see closing the gap and that's the 5x.

44:51And that's probably what a lot of people were like underwriting against. But it's hard. Like you really do need to expand the global economy, get to Mars, do all the crazy things to actually create a new class of company to get that type of return. Because if you're getting the Brad Gerstner style, you know, 100x, 1000x post IPO return, you're looking at a quadrillion dollar company. Yeah. Which is 100 quadrillion pennies, which is a lot. Can you imagine telling somebody that two years ago that SpaceX in 2026 would be worth$2.3 trillion and Meta would be worth$1.4 trillion with Meta$200 billion of revenue growing 30 % year over year?

45:35It's crazy. It's wild. Even Amazon being even in the same, being within striking distance. We've debated with friends about who's the goat, Elon, Bezos, how do you match them up? And we have a friend who's always like, well, Bezos can produce more cash flow. Amazon owns roughly somewhere around 20 % of Anthropic. Oh, yeah.

46:04And it is just we get so desensitized to these large numbers. This is a special founder, special company, unique situation. Dan Primack is talking about the IPO pop. He says, if you view a typical IPO pop as 10%, then the bar for SpaceX is$162, which is the current indicated open, although it's been falling. Okay, so as planned. Fact check, false. Okay, explain. I mean, it's much higher than 162, right? Oh, so it's popped more than 20%. It's like at, I mean, yeah, 24%. Leave it to Tyler to make a stock chart that doesn't show the price per share. I was like, I just want to see the market cap. No, we can flip it.

46:46We can flip it around. I like market caps. Anyway. I pulled up approximate evaluations that IPO for NVIDIA was$430 million fully diluted. Dollars. Yes. Per cents.

47:04Apple was$1.3 billion. Dollars? Per cents. uh microsoft was 777 million market cap 77 million what dollars or cents u.s dollars our dollars because the real the real move is to is to like ipo and like zimbabwean cents or something like or german reichmarks because then you're just like yeah i'm I'm actually a trillion-dollar company, too. You're like, well, what would it be in USD? And you're like, it's a$4 million. 0.01 cents. 0.01 cents. Or 0.01 dollars. Huge news for the DGens in the audience. There's already a SpaceX 2X levered ETF. Let's go. You've got 2X SpaceX exposure on day one. It's handed an AK-47 to a monkey, according to liquidity.

48:00It's happening. It's happening, folks. I saw this earlier and it looked like that ETF was trading before SpaceX was actually trading. Maybe they got exposure through some SPV. Yeah, I guess that's not. The Defiance Daily 2x SpaceX ETF seeks to provide 200 % of SpaceX's daily performance. So they do it synthetically. They do it with a whole bunch of other instruments. There's a lot going on there. Let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless real-time experience with Cisco. Big shout out to our friends at 137 Ventures. Justin, Alex, Christian. They invested one time in SpaceX, three times in SpaceX, seven times in SpaceX.

48:45Ten times. They invested 137 times in SpaceX, basically. Nomative determinants is actually crazy. Why are you called 137 Ventures? Because we're going to invest in SpaceX 137 times. It worked. And it worked. It worked. They printed. The level of conviction. And Justin Fishner-Wolfson has a profile in the New York Times talking about his story building that firm. And they do more than secondaries. They do more than SpaceX. Obviously, they're huge investors in all sorts of great companies. Many of them have been featured on the show. But SpaceX has stood out as a particularly interesting journey for them since they've been amassing ownership for 15 years.

49:32And they've done a fantastic job with that. The firm now owns more than 1 % of SpaceX, worth roughly$20 billion at the expected$1.77 trillion valuation. So it's closer to$30 trillion now. Congratulations. This will most likely define my career. Justin said in an interview this week. Congrats to Christian Garrett, congrats to Justin and the rest of the team over there. Heard in the chats, I put $1 million SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only 50k, 1 20th of what this individual asked for. Most people I spoke to have gotten even less. We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares and only get a small fraction How much did you get, Tyler?

50:20I got 22. 22 shares? But you requested more? Yes. And then, yeah, I mean, we've had a lot of people, they say they only got one share. Brutal. The one share wonder. That's almost worse than zero shares, because you can see it in your portfolio. Yeah. What if they could give you short interest? They're like, you asked for five shares, but we give you negative one share. We give you the inverse ETF, actually. It's over for you. Yeah, I was surprised by this. Given the offers that were flying around, I got offered like a$50 million allocation. Obviously not. Wasn't going to take that down myself.

51:03But I just... Wow, just say you risk off. No, but I responded to the guy and I was like, I don't even know. I'm not even going to text anyone because it feels like there's so much allocation available for everyone that it's just not even worth firing off texts. But turns out there was a lot more demand than supply. It's making its way through the world, through the iMessage DMs. Buddy needs to relax, says RJC. SpaceX IPO this week. Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO, what are we thinking, boss? Who is this? It's Kyle. I was your Uber driver three months ago. Wait, Nick had a funny text. This can't be real because Uber drivers don't get your phone number anymore.

51:52It all happens in the app. This is ridiculous. Maybe they had a good conversation. They exchanged numbers. Yeah, and also the rendering of the text, it doesn't look iMessage enough to me. I don't believe it, but it's funny. Nick did get a funny text this morning. What do you say? From somebody who is certainly not a professional investor texting him advice being like, you want to get in, but then you want to get out. You want to get in and get out. Get in, get out. Get in, but then get out by the end of the day. And Nick's sitting there with his one chair.

52:30Just getting like potentially, I don't know, might end up being the right advice, but probably. like one of my favorite things is the retail traders who focus on like uh apophenic apophenic interpretations of charts chartology have you seen this stuff yeah i was doing this i was i was drawing the lines yeah morning yeah you can see a whole trend of like okay this is the classic head and shoulders pattern this is the camel this is the dromedary camel this is the elephant pattern you got a draft formation following they're clearly going to trade up after this weather Yeah, weather reporting. It's good.

53:04You're not Mike, so I don't know if we're going to hear you. Anyway, let me tell you about Figma. Agents meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system. Context. Let's go to the Figma big board. I see a large IPO on the horizon. We're going to brand it in just a little bit. This whole plane watching the SpaceX IPO except for one dude watching Avatar. This is a good meme. I've seen this before because it was about the Knicks game, I think. Yeah, that was the original photo. It was interesting. I was expecting SpaceX IPO to make the front page of the Wall Street Journal.

53:41It did not. It also didn't make it to the front page of the Financial Times. I imagine it will tomorrow or Monday. But North America's World Cup kicks off in Mexico. The World Cup is a bigger international news. For the Wall Street Journal? Yeah. The Journal of Wall Street, John? Yep. They couldn't have predicted that, hey, there might be the biggest IPO of all time. Yeah, it's interesting because normally things get kicked out of the front page. Chatsy's a turtle head forming on the chart. A turtle head. It's a classic Binturong formation or something. They're also saying that an Iranian trillionaire is about$726 ,000 USD.

54:24There you go. There you go. Well, let's give it up for Nikita Beer. generational run sold two companies and then did a third company didn't even need to acqua hire it to get a you know a fantastic outcome here with spacex he got a dm from sean mcguire about two years ago a little over two years ago sean says hey i have a crazy opportunity for you and he just says i'm in i like this it's such a great way to respond to just you because you say I'm in, that's not going to be binding if you don't want to do it. It's just a way to say, I want to hear more. But it was clearly to come to X, the Everything app, work on a bunch of innovative features there, which have shipped.

55:09And the app has gotten great. And we love it and use it all the time. More addicted than ever, Nikita. And then jump into XAI and then jump into SpaceX and then be at the NASDAQ for this IPO. What a great run. And Nikita. Yeah, super happy for Nikita. He jumped into the internet's dive bar. He started getting into some fist fights, swinging. There were prediction markets about like, is Nikita going to get fired this week and stuff? And he figured out how to deliver more and more value, keep people happy. And he kept, I think the key thing was that he never, he would be, he would make aggressive like, and like user hostile moves, but they were always for the people that always ignored, were annoying to the power users.

55:54So it would be like, there's a thousand people that are upset with them. Dan says two minute response time. Really good. Lesson in there. Extremely online. So he would be like, oh, there's thousands of people that are mad at Nikita. And I'd be like, what are they mad about? Like, I'm not mad. And it's like, oh, they banned bots who are operating from North Korea who have been hacking cryptocurrency schemes or something like that. I'm like, yeah, actually, I'm glad that they're mad at Nikita. Nikita's doing the right thing. This is good. And so, you know, he picked fights. He picked a lot of fights with some very broad audiences.

56:23He picked fights with a guy who is mad about the revenue share program, and all he says every morning is good morning. That one's funny. Comment to a million posts. And the other thing... After the acquisition, a lot of people were speculating, oh, is TBPN, are they going to shadow ban TBPN? A good proof point today, Elon Musk liked one of our posts this morning. And so we were never shadow banned. I genuinely always trusted Nikita and the whole X team to not put their thumb on the scale. We never saw anything in the data, so we were never worried about it. but they've been fair and we're happy to be on this platform as crazy and chaotic as it is.

57:17And we're happy for their success. Let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds, online, in-store, on mobile, on social, on marketplace, and now with AI agents. Here's a good post. Peter Diamandis. He says, people ask me how I stay so optimistic. The honest answer, I read the data, not the headlines. I have a feeling I know what data he was reading. John, you know what data? What data? Morgan Stanley. Yeah. Who said they see a path for SpaceX to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030. If you're looking at that data, how can you not be optimistic?

57:58Path is a path. Path is a path. The flip side is that we're getting into the world. You know, NVIDIA earnings are holding up a global economy. Ken Kirtland says the entire world after the SpaceX IPO will say every society is one Falcon 9 failure away from chaos because people will be watching the SpaceX earnings. SpaceX launches very intently. I wonder what the correlation between SpaceX launch setbacks or successes will be with the stock, because we're at a point where the actual launch business is less material to where earnings come in, where valuation comes in. And I feel like the stock, you know, has, you know, throughout two decades has been able to, I mean, there's been very rough moments, obviously, with early failures.

58:47But in general, you know, if Starship, the Starship program gets delayed, that hasn't been something where it's like, oh, SpaceX is going to do a down route now. It's just been like, oh, that's a bummer. They're going to have to invest more. But a Falcon 9 launch failure is not that material when they're launching so many of them. It's a funny idea, but I disagree with the actual takeaway there. Anyway, let me tell you about Codex and the Road to Olympia expansion pack, which is sponsoring this episode. It takes your training split and refactors it into production-grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume.

59:27No more spaghetti programming. No more deprecated rear-delts functions. Just clean scalable mass architecture with automated progressive overload test coverage for calves and one critical warning build failed Insufficient carbs the codex road to Olympia expansion pack is available now. That's a good one. That's a good one Well, John, it's noon. Yeah, I think it's time. Okay. Okay. Let's reveal our Predictions so we all said can we do it in percentages or I guess we should do it market caps What's that price per share price per share Okay. What was the price per share when it IPO? 135. 135. Okay.

1:00:06So I said 0%. I said 135. I said the bankers, the funniest outcome is that the bankers got it perfectly correct. The market is perfectly efficient. No pop, no sell-off, completely flat line on the chart. That's a very kooking bit, but you don't want that. No, you want a 20 % pop. You want a little bit of a pop. And I would say they've done that pretty much. They've gotten it very, very, very close, right? Currently sitting at a 24 % pop. 24 % pop. 24 % pop. 167. Okay, so what did you say? What was your percentage? I was too bullish. You were too bullish. I was expecting somewhere around$183 to share by two minutes ago.

1:01:01$183. We're currently at$167. Okay, so what percentage is that? I thought it was going to open above$170. I thought it was going to open above$170 and then run more. Turns out it opened in the 60s, dropped down to around$158, and then built back up from there. Okay. I was off. So I had 0%. You had 33%. It's at 24%. I was just right. I went 31%, which would be 176. So I'm a little high, a little high. But I win. You win, you win. And does everyone want to know what Tyler wins, what the prize was today? The prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra ramp ad read. Because it's such a treat. No way.

1:01:48Yeah. That is special. And I get to, I hold them every day. So here you go, Tyler. I got it. Feel free to read the Ramp app for the audience. Ramp. Time is money. Save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more. All in one place. There we go. That was great. I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. Don't get too comfortable with that. Hitch back to Tyler. There we go. Hold it. There we go. Funniest outcome is the most likely. The funniest outcome would be$10 trillion or$0 trillion? No. No? The chat says it. What is it? 6-7. Oh, 6-7. 167. Okay, yeah. I did have that.

1:02:24I did have that down. One of the things I was going to do is a 42.067. That is the most funny outcome if you're 12 years old. Like, I can't think. Reverse stock split. It goes to 420. Yeah. Right? That's pretty good. Yeah. Well, there are some other stories that we should run through now that the SpaceX IPO has settled a little bit. Allison's old cup boat is on the market. Ooh, that's big. And it is a 1999 Custom International America's Cup class USCG certified 20 packs. It's 84 feet. It is listed for$149 ,000. This is a fantastic looking boat. And they're giving it away. The comments say it's been severely chopped up so it can operate as a tourist boat.

1:03:20Um, and, uh, anyways, please, one of you, uh, in the, in the chat or listening later, please pick this up and let's slap some ramp logos on it. Love it. Let's ride around. We'll do, uh, we'll do a live show from the, from the boat. It was great. Um, James Murphy, the CEO of LMNT. Have we not had him on the show somehow? No, because we get LMNT, we drink them all the time in the studio. Anyway, he filed a lawsuit against a company called Oasis. He says Oasis misled consumers knowingly, repeatedly, the case with LMNT is straightforward, it's linked below. But this case is about more than that to me.

1:04:08It's about fabricated fear for profit. This is about a group of online health creators that have lost their way, terrorizing people, especially new parents of young kids and and those with vulnerable conditions. There are hundreds of accounts now manufacturing scientific sounding content, often with AI, that they know almost nothing about. Oasis has misled millions of people about hundreds of products, and our day in court is coming. You might have seen these viral posts where sort of an up-and-coming brand, an RX Bar, or David Protein, or an LMNT, or any of these others will screenshot like something that's like, okay, even if you're like, I don't like that particular ingredient, It's like generally a health food.

1:04:47And then it'll be like Cheetos or Doritos is like 10 times healthier or something like that. And so that was going viral. And people were noticing that, wait, all the health foods are getting really poorly rated if they're independent brands, challenger brands. And things like Coca-Cola, beer, whiskey, alcohols had like 99, no problems. And it seemed like there was a lot of potential hallucinations in the data, a lot of, you know, less rigor. And so I believe Quinn Emanuel has been retained for this lawsuit. And it should be pretty crazy. James Murphy shares more. He says, I keep hearing from more companies that have been harmed by Oasis than other fear-maxing accounts that misrepresent testing.

1:05:30So Oasis would claim to test the products for different ingredients, different harmful substances, put that on a website. For what it's worth, they weren't actually doing their own testing. Okay, they weren't. They were taking test results that the brands had published. Yeah. And then misreading the results. Interesting. And publishing. So at one point, you know, and disclaimer, I know James very well. I know Cormac. Cormac, at one point, the founder of Oasis, was considering doing PMF or dye. Oh, really? Not for Oasis, but he had another idea. It didn't make sense for him to do because Oasis was, you know, growing and already at some scale.

1:06:18And I think that Cormac sort of generally has good intentions, but has created what I think is a system that ultimately profits off of creating massive fear around products that people love. products that are made by many entrepreneurs that are friends of mine that i trust of products that i you know use every single day i'm thinking like kettle and fire element things like that yeah kettle and fire got a really low rating something like they got a i think maybe a one out of ten one out of one hundred at one point uh which which again um yeah so anyway so he like has ended up in a cycle where like the more fear and controversy that he creates the more app downloads he drives the more subscription revenues that he drives and it's created a very vicious cycle Cormac has openly admitted that the way to go viral online is to be divisive to be controversial and so he just basically picks popular brands and and goes after them right and so with Element is a good example.

1:07:34He like fully misread the results, put out a bunch of super viral videos about it, left them up for over a year. Wow. Again, there's there's views coming in. Element is suffering, you know, harm from that. James has, if you read some of his posts, he's talked about this, like you get, you get like way more lead from having like a clean organic salad than like a lot of, you know, lead ends up in like parts per billion. Yeah. Yeah. It's so low. It's in everything. It's in the air. Everything in biology is about concentration. You can have like one part per trillion of like cyanide and that can be healthier for you than having drinking, you know, a hundred gallons of water because if you drink too much water, you will die.

1:08:26Right. And these things matter. And so just, just keyword searching for particular substances is not enough. And I went, I read through the entire, uh, the entire complaint. And again, these are allegations it's up to the court and judge to determine uh what's factual but uh ultimately uh ultimately my personal view is that it's not looking good for yeah oasis and cormac i think sort of uh they claim that they're um they scaled faster than their quality control um but at the same time uh i don't think that that is a good answer when you're knowingly leaving up content that is damaging companies and you're profiting off of that damage for uh literally over a year and this is just one brand and so there's been hundreds of brands that have been damaged they added using what i think are like vibe coded rating system they added hundreds of thousands of products without actually checking them.

1:09:35And so ultimately it's like, it's one thing. James has had issues. Element has had issues with this company for, I want to say now, according to the complaint, like 15 months or something like that. So it's not like he had some issue and immediately was like, I'm taking it. Founders were probably DMing immediately being like, wait, what? Yeah, so they've gone back and forth for a long time. Yeah. Cormac hasn't backed down. Yeah. And so this wasn't something like slight issue, boom, lawsuit. This was like they tried to resolve it over the course of a year. The kettle and fire getting a one-night - And you can't spread misinformation about companies for that long in that way.

1:10:23Without getting a phone call from Quinn Emanuel. Well, yeah. I mean, ultimately, it's like the worst. If you're going to get sued, it's literally the worst person to have on the other side. Like, it is not. They are. You know, we've had John Quinn. We've had the founder here on the show with us. He's the most feared. Yeah. And, yeah, I don't know how this gets resolved. So I understand how the brands were harmed. Kettle and Fire had a 1 out of 100 score. Hilariously, the Miller High Life glass bottle 40-ounce malt liquor beer had an 81 out of 100. And so you can imagine how Kettle and Fire was heard.

1:11:08And to Cormac's defense, in Cormac's defense, he claims that different categories get different scores, but that is not how a consumer is going to experience it. Because as a consumer, even though I love Justin, and I switched from kettle and fire to Miller High Life. And I was cooking with it. I was drinking it. For your daily protein. Yeah, exactly. And I actually switched. And you were heating it up on the stove like soup? Yeah, I would cook everything with it. I'd use it as a stock like I use kettle and fire. So you were instead of going for kettle and fire, which is like a clean source of protein.

1:11:43It was a big debate at Thanksgiving last year where I insisted that my whole family use Miller High Life. You were taking Miller High Life, putting it on the stove, putting scoops of whey protein in it. Yeah, exactly. to kind of recreate something like a bone broth. Yeah, yeah. With healthier ingredients. And I thought I was getting 81 times the health benefit. So I don't know. Maybe there should be a... Maybe there should be a... Can you hit the pha? Pha! Yeah, Mike's Hard Lemonade also got an 81. And Monster the Beast Hard Pink Poison Can got 70. I actually switched from Element to Mike's Hard Lemonade as like a pre-workout.

1:12:21Yeah. I think I have a case to join the class action if there is one for the consumers. I don't know that there's a class action yet, but here's the thing. You've done substantial amount of damage to potentially hundreds of brands on your platform, which has its own damages associated with it while you've been profiting off of it. Cormac talks about their MRR. They're doing hundreds of thousands of dollars a month of revenue. and yeah I'm interested to see how it resolves ultimately making hundreds of thousands you have to put some respect on his name for making hundreds of thousands of dollars switching consumers from bone broth to Miller High Life you can't not smile it's a rags to riches story if you told me that was possible I wouldn't have believed you It's absolutely wild.

1:13:19No, but the result of the last year is that millions of people have gotten misinformation, are more scared. There's very real reasons. Like I walk into the gas station, and I'm on high alert. I'm like, everything in here wants to kill me. Just give me the Miller Highlight. I just want the Miller Highlight 40-ounce. Yeah, I got the blinders on. I don't want anything that's bad for me. No, I think there are a lot of consumer packaged goods that are effectively poison. Of course. But when you build a business. Wait, you mean like literally poison? Are you talking about the Monster Energy pink poison can because that's the flavor of that particular product?

1:13:59The one that got a 60 or 70? It got a 71 out of 100. Much better for you than LLNT apparently. Pink poison can is wild. Yeah. Now, I would, I guess my, I don't know. You know, again, to Steelman Cormac, he seems to be, like, hiring more people. They've never, to my knowledge, had any, like, scientists or anyone on the team. And so getting some of those, getting, like, a food scientist on board, I think they've taken down some listings. Yeah, it's hard because if you put up a listing and that shows up in SEO for a while, like, and someone goes to an authoritative webpage, learns what they think is a fact, just taking it down, like you're not able to actually reach that person and correct the record.

1:14:56You know, the community notes feature on X is like pretty good, but it's hard because like, if you didn't interact with that post and then it gets a community note later, that's probably not going to resurface unless it's such a big story that it's like oh we all thought this thing and it's actually that you spend a lot of time on do not resurface unless a quote of it yeah it was like yeah yeah it needs to be its own story especially on instagram especially on instagram which doesn't even have like a quote functionality which is where uh it happens sometimes when when there's like there's some there's some idea that's going viral And then the debunk is so satisfying and such good content that everyone sort of updates collectively.

1:15:36But that's rare. And I ultimately, I feel, again, there's hundreds of companies that have experienced what it's like to be on the receiving end of like, you know, a platform that doesn't fully understand the category that they're operating in. where they're sitting there being like, I put two years into developing the best possible version that I could ever make of this product, going above and beyond, and I'm being rated 90 % less than Pink Poison from Monsters. It's like, I do believe that there's probably been hundreds of millions of dollars of damage done, and damage done to the best actors in the space.

1:16:27Like as somebody that likes trying new CPG products, like I will often find that there's like a window of time. It's usually like 10 years before something like falls off, right? It's like founder starts it. It's like very mission driven. It's obsessed with quality. They get a lot of customers because people love the product and like that you can just feel that the founder is like obsessed. and like I will I love buying products where I know the person I'm like do I trust this person uh I know you know James quite quite well I know you know Justin yeah uh uh even better and it's like if I know these guys are giving their products to their family and I know how obsessed they are with health I know they have done everything they possibly could have to make the best possible product in the category.

1:17:15And so for, for entrepreneurs like that to be on the receiving end, while big CPG just gets a total pass on pretty much seemingly everything is just like it is serve. It is doing the exact, it is having the exact opposite effect that you would want to have on the category, which is like hurting the good actors and propping up the bad actors. and it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that the entire platform was a front for big CPG to try to keep down upstarts. I'm not saying that at all. I don't believe that at all. I think to Cormac's credit, he does have a pretty cool Ferrari. Does he? Yeah. He at one point says he wished they were renting.

1:18:05They were renting because they bought Ferraris. Yeah, it's rough. That's rough. But I'm just, I'm going to take the other side and say I'm glad that Miller and My Life got some promotion. You're welcome. Again, I don't think he has bad intentions, but. He's moving a little bit too fast, breaking a few too many things. Breaking a lot of things, breaking the trust of a lot of consumers and I think some fantastic companies. And Cormac's welcome to come on the show. uh talk about it talk about the rebirth rebuild the next generation and i'm not sure that i'm not sure i don't i don't necessarily think that the company should i believe that oasis now is losing trust from consumers uh for very good reason right they've been misled for a very long time uh so i'm not convinced that the company should continue cormac is like a very talented yeah builder like he's done a lot with a small team i would like to see him apply that skill set like if you want to go viral a lot yeah like maybe health is not the right category it's hard it's hard sleep diet and exercise gets you a lot all the controversial stuff all the fringe stuff you you bump into good content not always being aligned with like good science or like what's legal yeah anyway uh do you see this new yc company they're calling it the last agent your company will ever need its name the company company this is right out of your playbook the company company of new york or san francisco they went full company the company company very funny good domain too the company i hope this is the last really yeah the company dot company It is so funny how long this naming convention will never die.

1:20:01I mean, Shotwell was at the Aerospace Corporation, which sounds like a fake company and like a movie, but it's a real company that's been operating since 1960. The Space Exploration Company. We got to hit the gong for Zane's dad. Zane from Knox Metal, he's been on the show. No way. And he has some fantastic news. His dad just beat cancer. yesterday. He says one tough cookie.

1:20:32To Zane's dad. And I'm excited for his dad. I'm excited for Zane. I'm also excited about this gong because if you zoom in on this gong, it's sponsored. It's a sponsored gong in the hospital. Strickland Auto Group paid for the gong in the hospital. When you beat cancer, you ring the Strickland Auto Group gong. And if you zoom in below, you can actually see that there are more sponsors. They have their own logo bar with Stratford, Toyota, Strickland's Auto Mart, and another company in the Strickland portfolio. And so I love that this local business went in and partnered with this hospital to celebrate cancer survivors.

1:21:21I thought it was really, really cool. Have you seen this guy who goes on, it looks like a local radio show, and he calls people pretending to be an AI agent? Have you seen these? Okay, we got to pull this one up. Kai, the AI guy, very funny, and it really encapsulates a lot of people's frustrations with AI. This one I thought was particularly fun. Let's play this. I'm here. Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now, close the fridge. Oh, you've got to go back to the beginning. You're verified. Can you refresh it? Because he introduces himself. Kai, your LG AI representative, calling to speak with customer Natalie.

1:22:00If this is you, please say yes or press 1. Uh, yes. Thank you. We're calling due to a notification from your new LG smart fridge. But first, let's verify your identity. Are you currently next to your fridge? No. Please go to your fridge so we can continue. Okay, I'm here. Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now, close the fridge. Awesome. You're verified. We received a notification from your LG Smart Fridge indicating a high level of use. Do you know how many times you opened your fridge yesterday? I don't. Please guess. Ten times? Incorrect. Please guess again. Okay, 20 times.

1:22:46Yesterday, you opened your LG Smart Fridge 27 times. Great job. You're not just setting records, you're breaking them. You're in the top 1 % of LG Smart Fridge users. Congratulations. Your LG Smart Fridge notified us that you have never once said thank you after opening and closing the doors. Is this true? Uh, I don't know. It is. Have you not said thank you because A, you are not pleased with your LG Smart Fridge, B, there is always food in your mouth, Or C, you were raised to be rude. Excuse me? Close. I believe you meant to say, I'm sorry, but great job. Okay, can I speak to a real human, please?

1:23:25Connecting you with a sales representative. Sorry, all our lines are busy right now. But not me. Kai, your LG AI Smart Fridge correspondent. What can I help you with today? What do you mean? You called me. Calling people is AI. Prinkles are kind of a lost part. Very fake, but very good. I'm going to bring Prinkles. Oh, you think that's entirely fake? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, I don't know. That's a bit for sure. You think that she's in on it? Because you can do prank calls as a radio show host, right? Yeah, but like, yeah. Oh, we just, we found people's data that had LG smart fridges. No, no, no. You call 10 people.

1:24:07Yeah, yeah. I know she has an LG smart fridge. Or you call 20 people until you get someone that has an LG smart fridge. Then you do the bit. The intonation in her voice at the end exposed it all. Also for social media, everything could be fake. Anyway, do you think this video of the six-foot-tall humanoids fighting is fake? Do you think this is a real video or a fake video? Because this poster says real steel is here. And it's not going well. These humanoids are really struggling. They lost its head? That's pretty impressive. Okay. Wow, they're really kicking each other. it's such a wild thing to watch.

1:24:48This one isn't as ridiculous as many of them. That's a good pop-up, even after losing a head. What does the head do if it's just cosmetic? That's an interesting twist. Google is running new nationwide ads on TV for Waymo. Waymo says its autonomous driver is statistically 10x safer than a human driver in the cities it served, built to never blink, tire, or get distracted. dude let's play this ad and give it a review what injure over a million of us every year because we're human one of those human driving complex oh they're taking shots this is a hit piece on human drivers never gets tired or angry or has a few too many too many shots of the drunk drivers in the audience are they gonna pan are they gonna pan to the telly there's like right Are they going to pan to the tele-op center?

1:25:50That's the ace of the sleep. That's not going to happen. Where it's like a brightly lit room of doctors and experts watching each screen, just being AI researchers. Is it illegal if your tele-op driver is drunk? I have no idea. I don't think there's any laws at all for any of this, really. It's all pretty uncharted. I think it's all very case by case negotiations city by city well Monaitis says it brings me no joy to report I spent a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my whoop that was totally cured by simply stop wearing the whoop by simply stop wearing stopping wearing the whoop yeah yeah yeah and X is turning this into a whole news story ditching whoop tracker cured financiers sleep worries financiers That's hilarious.

1:26:43Yeah, I mean, I've used to take before, like, you want to track your sleep? Like, are you sleepy? Like, think about it. Yeah, yeah. Come up with an answer. That's your sleep score. What's funny is, like, I never actually care about the score. No. The score takes care of itself. Yeah. But with eight sleep, I like the cooling. Like, that's nice. Well, and with eight sleep, I'm actually interested in, like, how is my REM versus deep sleep trending. Sure, sure, sure. Things like that. Yeah. uh, resting heart rate, all these other things. I never, I'm like, Oh, what's my score today? Oh, the score.

1:27:15Unless we were competing because then that was fun. It seems like one of those like a good heart's laws. Yes. Right. If you like, Oh, I need to get a better sleep score. Then it's, it doesn't like work as well. Yeah. Uh, you, this Toyota, the MR2 new secret MR2 from Toyota will be all thanks to Toyota's love of petrol sports cars. Where are you ranking the track weapon? This looks good. This looks like what it's sort of like the future should look like the future thing i mean those those headlights look like sf90 headlights that's sort of a crazy style so i like the mr2 but not as much as the fiat tris three-wheeled electric vehicle let's pull up this video uh i'm working i really want to get a fleet of these for the team you're going you're going uh fiat over nissan marado wait till Wait, not yeah, wait till you see this wait till you see this vehicle It is Built like a truck but drives Hey, obviously it's been like a truck, but it drives like a motorcycle.

1:28:16It has steering It has like candle bars. Okay, okay. It's like these US legal yet, or are they planning to bring I mean if they're not If they're not let you be rickshaw. Yeah, if they're not sure if they're not we're gonna make okay Jan 6 look like

1:28:36for your mini rising up single issue voter over here i mean this thing is absolutely stunning this thing is stunning going this over mr2 no way i'm going nissan look at that imagine being able to drive but having a throttle i imagine having the capacity of a truck but having a mix of a fleet we need a we need a puginator we need a cross cap we need an mr2 key truck A Luce Shrek edition. A GT3 RS Toy Story edition. And then one of these. The Fiat. You gotta get this. Incredible. What are you putting in the truck bed? What a spec, too. A spec. She's orange. Yeah, it is. That is the big question.

1:29:24What do you put in the bed of the truck? I don't know. I think groceries. Anything. Normally, I would say a whole bunch of Kettle and Fire, but I think I'm going Coors Highlight. Imagine commuting to the podcast studio with your best microphones in the truck bed, in your little tiny truck. And so that's what we're going for. It's going to be good for the countrywide tour. Take this around. Take this around. GPN on the road. What is this other car here that's in the BMW? Okay, this is our first peek at the electric BMW M3. Is it, says Motor One, meet the BMW M Concept new classe. Four electric motors, 100 kilowatt hour high performance battery, front bumper inspired by racing boats.

1:30:12What do you think? More picks coming out. Looks pretty good. I don't know. I'm not a big fan of these wheels. These wheels are sort of crazy with all the triangles. But otherwise, seems like a pretty normal car. I don't know. I've never been like, I don't think I've ever owned a BMW. I've been in a few, but what do you think, Jordy? Are you enjoying this concept for the new BMW M3? I've been waiting for more. I think that kind of sportier EVs will increase EVs' overall popularity because people are going to realize like, wait, okay, it's quite a bit heavier, but it's fast it's fun i think this looks fine i've never been a bmw guy myself nothing against the brand uh but like i think that i think this will be like a very great experience for somebody that maybe probably i mean i'm obviously going with the shrek the shrek fiat only shrek fiat generated we'll come back to that uh i i do think when it comes to electric vehicles uh the lack of variety has been a little stifling thanks to elon musk's absolute domination of the category with tesla you got the model 3 the model y which looks like a model 3 but just a little taller and then the s which looks like the 3 and the y and the x that looks like the y and then And you got the Cybertruck, which is the crazy thing, which I actually think makes people appreciate the other formats.

1:31:53But the only EV convertible is the Hummer EV, which is an odd choice. There's no just like put the top down cabriolet grand tourer in EV. I mean, the original Roadster. Did they ever do it? No. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The original Roadster, but they don't sell it anymore. And so that's a very niche car. There aren't many two doors. There aren't many grand tours. There's nothing that's like track focused really. There are like some one off, you know, like million dollar projects, but there's nothing in like, okay, what is the Supra? What is the Wrangler of this category? But again, when companies have tried them, they often flop.

1:32:34The G-Wagon EV is sort of the anti-Luce in the sense that a lot of people are saying, you know, oh, the Luce is like too different from a Ferrari. Well, Mercedes ran the experiment of like, What if we changed as little as possible about a loved category of car, the G series, the G wagon? And they changed very little to the point where the tire on the back is square. It doesn't even say electric on there. It says G650 with EQ technology has a very odd name. There's some blue accents. But unless you're a G-Wagon owner, an aficionado, most people can't spot the difference between a G-Wagon and an electric G-Wagon.

1:33:18They use the same style cues, the same lines. You're going to say, oh, I can tell. But you're an owner, so it doesn't count. But they went with the same design. Yeah, I mean, I can only tell from like a mile away. But like two miles, it's much harder. I can still tell from two miles, but I need binoculars. So they went with the same design language. They didn't switch it up and go rounded. They didn't switch it up and go different. Oh, they switched it up, John. Okay, okay. But you understand what they did, and it still didn't sell well. And so maybe that underwrites a more risk-taking strategy.

1:33:58All right, we got the Shrek TRIS. TRIS. Let's pull up the regular Fiat. Pull up the regular Fiat. Pull up the Shrek edition.

1:34:13This thing is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Okay, so this is the original. Go back. Go back. Original. For everyone. This is the original Fiat. Okay, looks good. One of the most stunning vehicles of the modern era. Hands down. And now for Dave, specifically in the chat. Yes, Dave, we got you covered. The ogre edition. Zoom out a little bit. Look at the teeth. Look at the wing on that thing. Look at the wing and the wood. There's extra wheels, too. Yeah, it got extra wheels. The wood doors with the swamp. The remnants of the swamp still kind of draped over the back. Yeah, you can do this. It's a track edition.

1:34:55Added, made it a five wheel. A classic five wheel edition. Yeah, a five wheeler. Anyway, there's a new challenge that hit the timeline. Apple threw down the gonglet. They said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend. Said, Siri won't be your AI girlfriend. This is from Apple's Craig Federighi. I'd like to see you try to stop me. I'd like to see you try to stop me. Look at this account that says clearly an upgrade on the Fiat, but suspicious name. S-H-R-I-E-A. One letter off the track. Yeah. What's going on? Very suspicious. Very suspicious. Maybe you might live in a swamp. We don't know. So Craig Federighi says Apple won't be your AI girlfriend.

1:35:40Quite the opposite. Because as you may know, many of the existing chatbots are really focused on engagement and sycophancy. They want to kind of pull you in. They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself. Then use that as a basis to establish a connection. We view it quite the opposite. I mean, the way we— Very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 2025 take, which is kind of fitting given their AI progress. But if you try and engage Siri as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that. Siri's 100 % not into that. And so the Rizzlers and the chat— I mean, he's just opening himself up to get dunked on, right?

1:36:17A little bit. Because people have jailbroken every single model that's ever been out. They'll jailbroke it. But also, one of the cool things about the Siri AI system is that it builds a rag. Look at it. He says, system prompts. Don't be the user's girlfriend. He's like, yeah, we cracked the code. This problem that has been plaguing the AI industry. So when you fire up a new iOS, did you install it, by the way? Yes, but I don't have the new Siri because you have to be on the wait list. But I can do all the images. Okay, cool. My phone gets really hot. I'm on 16 Pro. That's why I have the cooling chamber in it.

1:36:57Yeah, I'm not on the neighbors. Dude, there's some real damage there. I put this thing through its paces. No case. Throw it across the room. Scratch it up. Anyway, when you install the new Siri, it builds an index. It rebuilds the search index, the spotlight index. It builds a RAG database. It encodes every message, every mail, every email, every contact into a RAG database, puts it in vector space so that it can more naturally search over it via Siri. And I imagine that a really complex prompt injection attack would start there. And so you should construct on a clean phone messages and emails and contacts.

1:37:43And everything about the phone should lean into being susceptible to this. Look, the bankers almost have it perfect. They really do. They're working. Uh-oh. Oh, man. Nukes. It's got nukes. Red cam coming in. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Anyway, no, I do believe that Apple will put incredibly effective guardrails on this. Matthew Prince. years and years of research coming for these bankers it's sitting at a 19.8 pop he's like if you guys don't figure out a way to get buy the stock yeah i want to see some inflows from exactly 20 exactly 20 percent to end the day um yeah no this is this is good yeah be fun um anyway anyways i think that's a good place to end the show okay uh john wants to keep going I always want to keep going.

1:38:31But I did want to say a quick shout-out to a friend of the show, Bo Nickel, who will be fighting at the White House this weekend at the UFC 250 event. Bo Nickel hasn't been on the show yet, but was one of our first, I would say, 10 ,000 listeners of the show. and I'm thrilled that he gets to be on probably the biggest stage ever in combat sports this weekend. He's one of the greatest punchers ever in UFC history. He's good at kicking too, but him as a puncher, it's really tough. You're saying he's a knockout artist? Yeah. And, Bo, you're probably cutting weight right now, not listening to this, but John's just joking around.

1:39:19but uh give them give them heck out there since we don't swear on this show give them heck out there good luck this sunday we're rooting for you uh appreciate you and uh john they're saying just keep going don't stop i could read i could read obituaries from david hockney he passed away rest in peace david hockney uh i could read all sorts of stuff we didn't even get to the mansion section there's a bunch of good stuff in there we'll save it for next week save it for later Cisco's president G2 Patel, former friend of the show rocking a Richard Mill on stage at Semaphore we can pull that up you pulled me back in G2 Patel he's the president and chief product officer we've interviewed him at Cisco AI Summit we love Cisco, we love him my wife left me, not you Mr.

1:40:12Coogan doesn't want you to go offline Oh, okay. It took me a second. But as far as RMs go, this is very tasteful. This is very elevated. It goes with his outfit. I think it's – Richard Mills, it can be so bold. Like it can be – it can all of a sudden look like the Shrek edition if you get crazy. There's one for tracking the soccer match. There's all sorts of crazy colors. That's what RM is known for. but this is just more conservative, it fits the occasion, I think, very well. So fantastic, fantastic. Imagine a Shrek-themed RM with a wooden dial, right? With real swamp in it. Real swamp? There are some watches that have liquid inside.

1:41:10Yeah, that's what I'm saying, real swamp. The real swamp edition. Swap edition. It would be great. Wait, I got to get Tyler to apologize to the greatest president in American history. Oh, yeah. For the chat, Dave says Siri can be your wife because he only specified no girlfriend. He only specified no girlfriend. What did he mean by that? Don't be the girlfriend. Don't be a girlfriend. Don't be an AI girlfriend. No AI girlfriends. If they ask you to be the girlfriend, it's like the one and only, the lifetime partner. Yeah. Or just a fling. A fling. A fling? Fling. Fling or a flame. An old flame.

1:41:46Old flame. Sierra can be an old flame. An old flame. All right. Chat just made the Shrek edition RM. Let's pull it up. I mean. Shrek edition. The swamp. They're calling it the swamp edition. One of a hundred. Quickly, Tyler apologized to Jimmy Carter because he coined the term energy transition to describe the building of secure domestic energy base. He was energy pilled. He was bottleneck pilled before anyone. He knew. He knew that this day was coming and he knew that the new jewel order is coming in energy markets where energy is dirty. Look at this. Look at this. Oh, my. That was really hard.

1:42:27Send that to TJ Parker immediately. Look at this. Swamp Edition. Swamp Edition. One of 100. You could track what you're doing in the swamp. Has the whole castle there. And the ears. I mean, the ears look amazing. The Shrek Edition are good. That's very, very good. This is a great, like, fifth birthday present for any SpaceX employees. Like, if they have kids, like, pick this up. Your kid wearing a 1 of 100 RM down at the playground, Trek edition, guaranteed to be a conversation starter, right? Maybe the kids are, like, you know, toddlers. They don't have anything to talk about, really. But this is a way to kind of, like, break the ice, right?

1:43:08This is why some adults wear watch. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Something to talk about. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So, fantastic option. Well, the Japanese World Cup tourists have discovered Texas Roadhouse, and they're calling it the best cost performance steak. To those headed to America for a World Cup, if there's a Texas Roadhouse near your hotel, head there immediately. It is a chain restaurant, but you get the best cost performance steak, especially the ribeye. I'm surprised they didn't mention the bread. Oh, do you get unlimited bread? Yeah, you keep getting the little, I don't know, little bread.

1:43:42Maybe they should head over to lobster and get the shrimp. Well, there's one last post we can close out on from Water Gun. All these mountains to climb, will I Everest? Everest? I thought that was a funny pun. It's funnier when you read it. It's not funny when you read it out loud. It doesn't work. It doesn't work in the audio format. Anyway, have a great weekend. And congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO and printed a nice 19.44 % gain today. And yeah, we're praying for the bankers out there that they can figure out how to correct it. Close it at exactly 20%. I mean, they have like 15 minutes left, right?

1:44:21They do. Well, leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts. Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn.com. And we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend. We love you. Goodbye. Flashbang. Flashbang out.

1:44:40According toantics, the interaction was correct and included in a place where the program goes to work. We all

From the publisher

  • (00:34) - SpaceX IPO Coverage
  • (21:25) - Vindication for Elon Musk
  • (35:31) - SpaceX IPO 𝕏 Timeline Reactions
  • (01:03:38) - Oasis Faces LMNT Lawsuit
  • (01:20:16) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions


TBPN is made possible by:

Ramp - https://ramp.com

Public - https://public.com

Cisco - https://www.cisco.com

Console - https://www.console.com

CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com

Figma - https://www.figma.com

MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com

NYSE - https://www.nyse.com

Railway - https://railway.com

Shopify - https://www.shopify.com

Codex - http://openAI.com/codex


Follow TBPN: 

https://TBPN.com

https://x.com/tbpn

https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tbpn/id1772360235

https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

More from TBPN

All 686 episodes
SpaceX IPO GigastreamTBPN · 1 h 45 min
Listen in VO