Tyler Cowen, Ara Kharazian, Jan Sramek, Nvidia to Make AI Supercomputers in the U.S., What Apple Has at Stake in China, Trump Alters Course on Tariffs

26:35Like this is a mastery, like a student-teacher relationship. But at the same time, if you're moving production into the United States, even if the yields are lower, it still makes sense to do from a business standpoint if there's a potential scenario in the next few years that Taiwan has invaded and all of your production is shut down. Yeah, and there might be incentives that offset the cost. Yeah, and again, it's with TSMC specifically, it's not a wage arbitrage play at all. The people that work at TSMC are very highly paid. So there's no need where it's like, oh, America doesn't have enough people that are willing to work for$3 an hour.

27:11That's not a problem in semis. It's more skills. Anyway, so shares of NVIDIA were up amid a broad rally for tech stocks. I love broad rallies, especially when you're participating in them on public.com, investing for those who take it seriously. They got multi-asset investing. They got industry-leading yields. They're trusted by millions, folks. Head over to public.com. Just do it. And let's move on to what's happening with Apple with these tariffs. So the iPhone maker just received some reprieve from tariffs, but is still heavily reliant on the Chinese manufacturing economy. It helped build. Yeah, so we were talking about this.

27:48So planes filled with iPhones have been leaving the Chennai Airport in southern India for months, a last-ditch effort by Apple to delay a tariff calamity. When President Trump last week ignited a trade war, it was clear that Apple could be hit hardest. And for more than a week, it looked like time was running out for the world's largest company. Then late Friday night, the company got some reprieve from the White House when the White House exempted iPhones, computers and other electronics from its reciprocal tariffs. Trump had targeted China, where Apple overwhelmingly makes its devices, slapping the world's second largest economy with 54 percent tariffs that swelled to 145 percent amid tit for tat retaliation.

28:28the lower figure threatened to cut deeply into apple's big profit margin from china made devices sold in the u.s the higher future uh the higher figure could have obliterated it it is unclear how long that relief might last um apple shares are down 11 since the announcement and now they're like yeah which is which is crazy yeah no longer they pop accurate um but yeah the interesting thing we were talking about this before the show yeah uh about around you know whether or not, you know, what was the real sort of incentive for them to put all the iPhones on the 747s and fly them and make this sort of big show out of it.

29:08And I think it was just the sort of pragmatic thing to do. And then you said something that was interesting, which is that Apple always uses planes. Almost always. Yeah. There's reports that a lot of iPhones fly to America in the belly of 747s, usually passenger planes, where there's just only so much luggage. And most people don't even want to check bags these days. They want to keep their bag up here and in the pressurized cabin. And so there's usually extra space, but it's expensive to throw your products on there. But if you're Apple, you're fine. And so they've been doing that for a while.

29:42They've always had that infrastructure built up. But this is hilarious because how many iPhones can fit in a 747 is like the classic like McKinsey interview question and it's always like when would I ever need to do that calculation like I get that this is like an abstract your first day at Apple supply chain yeah and it's like oh this is actually extremely important to get right um and also it's it's funny because you hear like five 747s full of of iPhones it's like you know hundreds of thousands of iPhones or something and it's like it turns out that's like what they sell in like two or three weeks.

30:15And so it's not like they moved so many that they're like out of the woods. Oh yeah, we got six months of inventory out of the country. It's like we might've saved like billions, but we make billions every single day. And so it's one of those things where someone in their supply chain group saved the company a ton of money, but they are not out of the woods at all. And so they've been moving stuff around, but this is what Tim cook is known for like in fact he you could all of the all of the questions about like like oh apple is no longer this like super steve jobs design product driven they're falling behind on apple intelligence series not great like tim cook doesn't seem to be leading into like this vr future really there's always a question of like would would steve jobs have shipped the Apple Vision Pro in that state.

31:04Like Tim Cook did, but maybe Steve Jobs wouldn't. Well, like, which is a bigger problem right now? Supply chain? Or like being a year or two behind on VR, which no one really has working. Like this is an extreme bull case for like, for like Tim Cook is the right person to be at the helm right now because I'm, I'm still using an iPhone, even though Siri is not great yet. And they haven't released new products that have delighted. And I didn't keep my Apple Vision Pro, but keeping the price of these computers in half through amazing supply chain negotiations and amazing management of the Trump tariff policy, that is where Tim Cook will earn his pay and validate that he really should be at the top of this company.

31:51And any claims about, oh, they're not moving fast enough on AI. This is game seven for Tim Cook. Yep. Game seven. Job not finished. Job's not finished. and certainly not people are saying that if this doesn't go according to plan an american iphone could cost 3500 uh it would be interesting to see what what that did to the market i don't think people would shift that much to android because a lot of android phones are made in china as well uh the bigger issue would just be people would just buy a lot less phones like there are plenty of people that are on annual refresh cycles uh that would just switch to to every two years or every three years because$3 ,500 is really worth it for a slightly better camera or one extra button on the side.

32:33The improvements are so incremental. Once you triple the price, you're getting into a place where you're just not going to drive upgrades. So it took China 40 years to build a complex manufacturing supply chain, says a professor at ASU who previously worked for Apple in China. We used to have that. It's a disaster that we let it go. And this is the interesting story of Apple and China. Apple both helped China accelerate advanced manufacturing. But on the flip side, the iPhone would not be as popular if China hadn't existed to help the iPhone scale. Like in the early days of the iPhone rollout, it was such a popular device that they would never miss earnings because they were completely supply constrained.

33:18And so they would just go to their supply chain and say, exactly how many iPhones can you make? okay we will that's our forecast yeah and now with with vr headsets it's like yeah the the demand and supplies like wildly disconnected and now they're missing earnings much more than that not like missing but like it's much harder to forecast uh so one one reason apple is so closely tied to china's electronic supply chain is that the company helped build it it began working with chinese suppliers more than two decades ago and increased production there in 20 in 2004 as a new hit product the ipod was taking off it had helped from a friendly government and apple in turn trained suppliers to meet its exacting standards.

33:54In time, Apple helped build an ecosystem of more than 1 ,000 suppliers in China. The iPhone maker taught them how to operate more efficiently, so they competed with one another, driving down Apple's costs. Apple manufacturing partner Foxconn built a compound so large in Zhengzhou that is known as iPhone City. Combining low cost with premium price devices means Apple's share of profits for all smartphone production globally can top 80%, even when its share of device shipments is below 20%, according to CounterPoint Research. Other countries don't offer the same promise as a manufacturing hub. Guthrie found when he studied alternatives for Apple, India has lots of workers, but bureaucracy can make it more difficult to move quickly.

34:39Apple suppliers in India have focused on two southern Indian states that have more streamlined processes. Apple supplier Foxconn has its main India factories near Chennai. Indian officials hope the new tariffs on China would help the country take on more of the Apple supply chain beyond final assembly, but such an effort would take years. Yeah, there's another flip side of this, which is like there's some scar tissue at Apple from a previous manufacturing effort that Ben Thompson highlighted as Stratechery. he said, Steve Jobs in his first tenure at Apple was deeply committed to manufacturing, including building a futuristic factory in Fremont for the Mac.

35:23So he was all in on American manufacturing. I think this was back in the 80s, maybe the 90s. This merely cost the company millions. His attempt to do the same for Next all but drove the company out of business. So he left, he went to Next and was like, of course, we're going to have like the most futuristic gigafactory like what Tesla does now. But building your own manufacturing is extremely high stakes because if you don't build enough - It's very different than being really good at designing products. Totally. And innovating. So we almost went out of business at Next. What Apple needed and eventually found in China under Tim Cook was scalability.

36:02Apple would focus its integration chops on getting the product right and trust contract manufacturers to achieve the flexibility of meeting demand. And the flexibility of meeting demand in China is insane. I heard some stat that there are 1 million migrant workers who travel to iPhone city for what's called the push, where there's a new iPhone coming out and they know that everyone's going to upgrade right around the holidays because the iPhone drops in like September, October, and then people buy it October, November, December. And then there's like a steady flow of them, but the vast majority of the sales happen in that Q4 period.

36:38So you got to manufacture them right then. And so there's a million people that literally like live in the countryside, come in and just assemble iPhones like 18 hours a day for like three weeks or like three months. Yeah. And then, and then they leave and, and America just has nowhere near that amount of like labor flexibility and neither does India. Right now the estimate is that America has 6 million unemployed people. Yeah. So, so the idea that you're going to get a large percentage of those people all in one city and and like we don't have cities that are set up for that like when the super bowl happens everything grinds to a halt when the olympics happens like it's a calamity in america whereas china's like oh yeah like uh we have we have a million apartments sitting right there vacant because we built them up over the last 20 years sure they all look like soviet block like cinder yeah we had coachella over the weekend oh yeah 125 000 people yeah turns into a bit of a nightmare.

37:35It's a nightmare. Yeah. I mean, just getting in and out of Black Rock City for Burning Man is a disaster. But China's like really built up this infrastructure to allow flexibility. They have a lot of empty apartments. They have a lot of empty apartments, for sure. Which comes in handy. And so this more broadly is an important addition to the capability discussion above. Manufacturing has changed from being a point of integration with a product to being a horizontal scalable services offering, developing the customer service chops necessary for such a business would be a significant cultural change for a U.S.

38:07manufacturing base, a la Intel's struggle to become a foundry. To that end, one benefit of a war over Taiwan is that it would be so terrible for tech companies that there really isn't much benefit in planning for it. The hedging cost, which would entail building out those scalable horizontal service providers, which for economic reasons must serve more than one company or product, would be so astronomical that it probably wouldn't be economical to do anything other than deepen the status quo. And so if you think about Apple's approach to the Vision Pro, like that was an incredibly expensive product that could have been, it was extremely hard to forecast because remember during the rollout, like there was all this like, uh, there was all this like energy around like, oh wow, they solved it.

38:48Like VR is finally here. Everyone's going to get this. Sure. It's a little expensive, but everyone's going to have it. And then the first week of Apple Vision Pro on X was like, this is incredible. I've seen the future. I've seen the future. It's here. Everyone's got to have this. And I think people were right in that they saw the future, yet the form factor wasn't quite there yet. Yeah. Yeah, they glimpsed it. And so how do you forecast demand if you need to build out a massive manufacturing plant for Apple Vision Pros? If you get it wrong on the low side, you're not going to be capturing all the value while you're out of stock for years.

39:21And if you build out a massive automated facility, you're going to sell, you know, and then demand comes in weak. you have all this capex that you're not gonna repeat, like, you know, be able to reap the reward from, and it's just gonna be a disaster. Whereas I'm sure Apple was pretty much unaffected by the Apple Vision Pro kind of being a flop, because they just went to their contract manufacturer and they were like, yeah, like, we're not gonna make that many of them. And they're like, okay, like, that kind of sucks for us, but like, we take the risk with you because we love working with Apple as well.

39:49Yeah, the real pain there was a failed product launch around something that, not necessarily failed, Like you can argue that it was fine. It was a demonstration of the technology and Apple will continue to invest, whether or not that's really that true. But yeah, when you're selling 233 million iPhones a year, you can launch a new product and have it not do super well and you're going to be okay. Yeah. And so Tim Cook used to yap about this, but he's kept his mouth shut over the last decade. But if you go back to CBS 60 Minutes in 2015, he said, the US over time began to stop having as many vocational kind of skills.

40:31You can take every tool and die maker in the United States and probably put them in a room that we're currently sitting in. In China, you would have to have multiple football fields. And I think that's so true because you ask the average person and they're like, what's a tool and die maker? Like, I don't even know what job that is. That doesn't mean anything to me. Just put the fries in the bag, bro. That's what we're good at in America. We do some vocational stuff, but it's not even a vocation. Like putting fries in the bag is not something you need to go to a trade school for. We do like extremely low skill and then extremely high skill.

41:06Like, oh, you have to understand like PhD level philosophy for this job or whatever. Or like, you know, legal or business or finance or medical or any of this stuff. But it is also the low skilled workers whom Apple needs. in China, there isn't only a massive supply of them available, but under the country's mobile labor system, which we discussed, they work for only a few months. This army deploys to help Apple increase production volumes ahead of the US holiday system, then retreats when volumes fall. And so it's interesting to see how Apple's navigating this. We'll see where it lands. But if Apple wants to control costs through a time like this, they should go to ramp.com.

41:45Time is money. Save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more. All in one place. Go to ramp.com. No idea where that came from, but we do have Ara Karazian, economist over at Ramp, coming in later to talk about what they're seeing across the Ramp business corporation platform in terms of various economic data points. So excited to dive in there. Should we go through the Texas lottery scandal in the next 17 minutes? This was a fun story. This is a fun story. So Gambling 911, one, who I did not follow before this, says, this Texas lottery scandal is so convoluted.

42:23Mark our words, this will be made into a Netflix doc or film in the not too distant future. At heart of the scheme, the Joker. NC and MO lotteries were targeted by these groups. And so the Wall Street Journal has a whole deep dive on a secretive gambler called the Joker who took down the Texas lottery. This has happened in the past, but this is maybe the most dramatic telling of it. Yeah, and high level, this is a story about groups of people that realize there are opportunities to game lotteries in order to have outsized chances of winning. Basically, they recognize that they can go post up somewhere and print millions of tickets in a few days.

43:00They can have a really good chance at winning a lot of money. So the man's name is Bernard Marantelli, and he had a plan in his mind. And he and his partners would buy nearly every possible number in a coming drawing. There were 25.8 million potential number combinations. The tickets were a dollar a piece. And the jackpot was heading to 95 million. If nobody else picked the winning numbers, the profit would be nearly 60 million. Yeah, it's something I didn't really realize. I'm not a big lottery ticket guy. But I didn't realize that two people could pick the same number. They can. And so you can pick the same number.

43:37and what happens is the winners just have to split the proceeds. So they actively are trying to pick numbers that aren't tickets that will be split. Because a lot of people just do one, two, three, four, five, six. Sure, sure, sure. So you don't want to pick that number. Interesting. And so they fly to the U.S. with a few trusted lieutenants. This guy is a London banker turned bookmaker. And they set up shop in a defunct dentist's office, a warehouse, and two other spots in Texas. the crew worked out a way to get official ticket printing terminals. This is the crazy thing. Apparently, if you're really, really into lottery, you can just figure out a way to actually just get your own machine.

44:16You are going to have to bring in your own paper if you're printing a high volume. Well, I've been doing this with Polymarket. I had Polymarket set up like an on-premise installation of the Polymarket code that runs. I run my own chain, my own decentralized. On your own Blackwell? Yeah, my own Blackwell, my own data center, my AI supercomputer, so that I have access to my own polymarket because I'm just hooked. Hooked. So trucks hauled in dozens of them and reams of paper. Over three days, the machines, manned by a disparate bunch of associates and some of their children, screeched away nearly around the clock, spitting out 100 or more tickets every second.

44:53Texas politicians later likened the operation to a sweatshop. And so to be clear, they basically spin up these systems, which is like almost what you can imagine is like a disaster response type situation where it's like they have a warehouse and they have a bunch of folders and they're just like filing they're printing the tickets yeah filing them there's actually a there's actually a phrase for exactly what this is uh it's do things that don't scale yeah yeah all graham talked about yeah yeah exactly so i don't know if it was in the context they're going founder but yeah this is called going founder mode on the texas lottery texas lottery so trying to pull off the gambit required deep pockets and and knack for staying under the radar both hallmarks of the secret tasmanian gambler who bankrolled the operation born uh zelko rano jack he was nicknamed the joker for his ability to pull off capers at far-flung casinos and racetracks adding to his mystique he changed his name to john wilson several decades ago the most generic name of all time hey i need something that that flies under the radar and then you read it in a story about him changing his name to john wilson and you're like, okay, like he just like picked.

46:00He's like, what is like the take the two most common, you know, first and last names. John Doe. Over the years, him and his partners have won several hundreds of millions of dollars by applying Wall Street style analytics to betting opportunities around the world like card counters at a blackjack table. They use data and math to hunt for situations ripe for flipping the house edge in their favor. Then they throw piles of money at it, betting an estimated$10 billion annually. Wow, that's a lot of money. The Texas lottery play. One of their most ambitious operations ever paid off spectacularly with a$57.8 million jackpot win.

46:34That in turn spilled their activities. So I guess they must be doing, if they're doing$10 billion and this$57 million win where they bet$25 million, it must be that they're doing a lot of traditional sports betting markets separately. Just slight edges, 51%. Yeah, more programmatic. Yeah, I mean, you see this with like hedge funds where it's like, oh, they traded a billion dollars a day. and it's like what makes this yeah what makes this story fascinating is it was like a boots on the ground operation totally sent like delta force in yeah just gamble yeah so earlier this month the state lieutenant's governor the state's lieutenant governor dan patrick called the cruise win the biggest theft from the people of texas in the history of texas in response to written questions addressed to the to the to the joker glenn gelbend a new jersey lawyer who represents the limited partnership that claimed the texas prize said all applicable laws rules and regulations were followed.

47:27Dan Patrick of Texas, state's lieutenant governor, is calling this the biggest theft from the people of Texas in the history of Texas. That said, it does seem like the Joker and his crew have a good argument that they didn't break the law. They're saying it's a theft because they gamed the system, but it's not necessarily legal. Yep, yep, yeah. And this has actually happened before. I remember a professor at Northeastern figured out the math behind breaking a lottery like this and then he published a paper on it but he never actually went and implemented the strategy but kind of proved it and then and then the lottery changed to kind of harden against this type of attack it's kind of like a 51 attack on bitcoin honestly uh so lottery hunters and pro gamblers have a good reason not to court the limelight publicity can draw the attention of tax authorities encourage bookies and lotteries to tighten rules or worst of all inspire copycats who might make a run at the next big jackpot and split the prize a group of princeton university graduates incorporated under the name Black Swan Capital, has won millions in recent years playing scratch-off tickets and other lottery games in various states.

48:32This is a different group running the same playbook where they go and set up shop. It's really funny to think about your, let's say somebody's running a convenience store and just all of a sudden, this like college kid comes to you and they say, hey, so I'm gonna be buying 500 ,000 lottery tickets in the next 24 hours. Also imagine you're just like an average Joe Schmo and you're just like, yeah, like I just like every once in a while when I'm getting gas, I pick up a scratch off ticket. I just hope that I'm going to win one day. And then you find out that there's basically a hedge fund on the other side of the trade dumping$50 million against you.

49:10And you're not just playing against the house, but you're trading against the house and like a very mature financial organization run by Princeton University graduates. That is rough. Lottery officials and others who have tracked their tactics say they appear to calculate when the math is most in their favor using publicly available information such as how many prizes are in a game and how many remain unclaimed. When the odds are right, they swoop in hoping to win back more money than they spend. One Black Swan team member collected a$5 million win in Missouri in 2019. Another one,$10 million in North Carolina in 2022.

49:41In Maryland, a Black Swan team used lottery machines in four liquor stores for four days to win a$2.6 million prize. And this idea - interesting so black swanters used to appear in lottery marketing promotions smiling and holding ceremonial checks interesting but in recent years they've mostly stayed quiet obviously yeah you can imagine the first few wins they were they were down to get you know the comically large check and then they realized like this is putting in massive you know we're basically marketing our own yeah operation here yeah i remember somebody caltech did this maybe like 20 or 30 years ago with the McDonald's Monopoly prizes.

50:17Do you remember those? You get the fries and it comes with two different Monopoly stickers. You peel them off. And the way the McDonald's Monopoly worked, there was like a million dollar prize. And if you, almost everyone would get Boardwalk, but Park Place was extremely rare. That was like a one in 10 million chance to get it. But if you got both of them, Boardwalk and Park Place, you would win a million dollar prize. And so what they figured out was that because this was not a lottery, it was a giveaway, legally, they had to allow anyone to enter without no purchase necessary. And so what the Caltech people figured out was that they had access to modern printing infrastructure that would allow them to mail in millions of - Submissions.

51:04Yeah, submissions. Hi, I just would like an entry into your lottery. It's not a lottery, so I don't need to pay to be entered. Just put me down for one ticket a million times. And they won, and then it became this big thing. And they were dropping off like truckloads of papers being like, each one gets me one entry. And no one expected that they would do this because the math on like the postage stamp should be higher, but they figured out they could drop them off, and they found all these arbitrages, and then eventually won. And then they changed the rules probably and said like, okay, max like 10 entries per person or something.

51:38Anyway, like all lotto retailers, so the team actually recruited one such seller, struggling startup Lottery.com to help with the logistics of buying and printing the millions of tickets. Like all lotto retailers, Lottery.com collects a 5 % sales commission. Which is unfortunately, we'll find out, only on the cost of the ticket, not on the proceeds. Okay. So the Texas Lottery Commission allowed dozens of the terminals that print tickets to be delivered to the four workshops set up by the team. That April 19th, the commission announced that there had been no winner in that day's drawing. The next drawing with an even larger pot would be three days later.

52:14On Saturday, the group sprang into action. The printing operation ran day and night. The team had converted each number combination into a QR code. Crew members scanned the codes into terminals using their phones, then scrambled to organize all the tickets in boxes such that they could easily locate the winning numbers. Yeah, imagine you win and you're like, we know we have the number in one of these 200 million tickets in this warehouse. so yeah um gotta get the game called for picking six numbers from one to 54 for a pro gambler some sets of numbers such as one two three four five six aren't worth picking because so many other players choose them which would split the pool uh the operation bought 99.3 percent of the possibilities money moved from lottery money moved to lottery.com from the joker's account held under the name john wilson in the isle of man a tax a tax haven off the uk coast taking a great name by the way isle of man yeah it's great yeah we should go uh we should go on a vacation there maybe wander should book a should book a wander out there yeah i love man uh taking a circuitous route via an escrow account at a detroit law firm according to people familiar with transfers the crew hit the jackpot that saturday one of their tickets was the sole winner about two months later the lottery commission revealed that the prize had been claimed by a limited partnership called rook tx and the winner had elected to remain anonymous the commission said which actually makes sense that you want to allow people to be anonymous because if you force them to take a picture with a big check that's just like a hey come kidnap me moment right yeah or just shake me down oh hey i got a business idea i'm starting a foundation model do you want to put some money in that type of thing there's a lot of that going on in silicon valley right now starting a non-profit yeah uh the secret however didn't say secret for long the state officials were outraged when they learned how the operation went down.

54:03State Senator Bob Hall blamed the Texas Lottery Commission, saying the incident signaled the possibility of an organized crime ring being embedded in the Texas government. They think they got an insider. Greg Abbott, the governor. I don't think it was true. No. Ordered the Texas Rangers to investigate, saying the state's residents deserve a lottery that is fair and transparent for everyone. I agree with that. They probably should update the terms and conditions. It's really wrong that we don't have the California Rangers. Really? Yeah. Texas really lucked out with that one. What do we have? The Stades?

54:30The Highway Patrol or something with chp highway patrol that's about it i guess we have sheriffs right or sheriffs are federal i don't really know state lottery directors say they are seeing more organized efforts to buy lottery tickets in bulk but that the groups are largely operating legally and transparently uh state lotteries like the one in texas are in a sweet spot for the pros the jack spot the jackpots are big enough to be worth shooting for and the number of possible combinations minimizes the risk of multiple winners multi-state games such as the powerball often have far bigger pots but there are so many combinations that buying them all would be unwieldy and cost too much just wait until they find out about artificial intelligence baby they're gonna figure out a way to go for the power ball yeah some hedge fund is gonna get into that citadel it's gonna be like yeah we have a new powerball desk that's spinning up yeah just we yeah we we hit print here and there's a thousand jackpots are ours now we have we have lottery ticket printing fact giga factories yeah just just oh yeah it actually makes uh the tesla model three line look like you know a uh like this is like this could be the bull market in the printer space for sure for sure um yeah and so uh another example in oklahoma the black swan swan team recently made a play at a scratch-off game with a five million dollar prize on the line they set up at a hotel and spent three weeks scratching off tickets but left the state without getting the top prize that must be brutal yeah because with the scratch apps, like they can't, they can't like print them themselves.

55:54And so they're so much harder to organize. They actually have to scratch them all. I bet they had some really pro, they weren't using a coin. They probably had some like, you know, de-icer machine scratching, but that is insane. Honestly, good take from John Martin, Maryland lottery director. He said on a podcast, how is this any different from an investment group buying stocks to gain an advantage over time in the marketplace? I don't know that it is. You can take a holier than thou attitude and say, well, if it's not right, it's not fair. But again, it's not illegal and it's probably not a bad business strategy, which I think is generally the right take here.

56:33Yeah. Well, what a fun story. You love to see these like little gambits. We'll see if it is considered cheating. I'm sure it will be hotly debated in the courts and then ultimately um boiled down into you know new sets of rules but uh it's it's it's it's hard to know like should you put a max number per person should you do oh you know something about you can't split it because a lot of people just casually will have like you know handshake deals with their friends who are like oh we all buy lottery tickets and if any of us win we'll split it yeah that's just like a common thing and how are you gonna make that illegal um so consider cheating once the teams on the ground in Texas had their printing, their ticket printing operation in full swing.

57:20Lottery.com executive Greg Potts texted him to Associates, things are going great. Thanks to the mass buying, the size of the jackpot was soaring. The Texas Lotto Commission put out a news release saying it was the biggest since 2010. Lotto Texas fever is sweeping across the Lone Star State, it said. It's so funny if you're running the Texas lottery and you're just like, wow, like, there's just all this demand for our lottery tickets. And it's from this one? Our ad campaign this quarter must have been fantastic. Whoever wrote the copy for that billboard, they need a promotion. And it turns out it's just some hedge fund that came in and it's just like decimating your whole plan.

57:56So brutal. Dawn Nettles, a self-appointed watchdog who has published the Texas Lotto Report since soon after the lottery's inception in 1992, headed out to stores in Dallas and Garland. She didn't see any evidence of lottery fever and figured a pro gambling outfit was vacuuming up tickets. Nettles bought several dozen tickets in a long shot bid to split the winnings. I like how Don Nettles is just like, she's running the Texas lottery report. I'm the watchdog. But look, fun is fun. I gotta be in the game. I gotta feel the rush somehow. What if I win? And if you know that they're buying - She's saying the same thing that a lottery buyer says.

58:35I said, come on, God, let me hold the winning ticket so we split it and they don't come out with a profit. yeah yeah yeah so she's like she's the watchdog but she's actually acting like a watchdog yeah she's betting against the hedge fund she's like if i could take 50 of their winnings and just bankrupt them that would be so satisfying it'd be more satisfying than just actually winning and so this is this is some interesting um background so that saturday the commission announced the winning numbers 3 5 18 29 30 and 52 within hours marantelli's crew had located the winning ticket in a file box in one of their four workplaces workspaces so that took them hours to actually find if they had the ticket yeah which is crazy an associate snapped a photo of a smiling marintelli holding up the winner flanked by team members and boxes and lottery.com ended up making just 264 000 on its commission on this it's not that much uh which seems low given how big the winnings are.

59:33But again, that's, you know, that commission for lottery.com is based on, you know, what 5 % of basically the cost of purchasing the tickets. But this is the big debate point. Texas Lottery Commission Executive Director Ryan Mindell, a deputy at the time, said the mass buying had compromised public perception about fairness. He said the request for ticket terminals had been approved by a junior employee and complied with policy, the Lottery Commission and Texas Rangers continue to look into the episode. Lottery officials and state lawmakers have taken steps to prevent a repeat. Yet, pro-gamblers, it appears, haven't lost interest.

1:00:13And so, yeah, I mean, if everyone finds out that they're playing against hedge funds, basically, they're not going to be as likely to actually play. What I'm interested in to know is that I think that this could be a net positive for the state of Texas in a weird way, right? Because Texas makes, you still have to pay taxes on it. And so the money that goes in is the money that goes out minus taxes. And so, and the critique of the lottery was that it's a tax on lower income folks who buy lottery tickets. And so if instead you're just letting, I mean, you're still taking money out of the people who are more likely to lose than ever but yeah but something like this potentially compresses the the basically the margin yeah

1:01:35Yeah, who knows? effort and thwarted it by pushing out a software update that limited the number of tickets a terminal can sell in a day so they're basically saying like you're not going to be able to buy you know 25 million well we have tyler cowan here on the show so welcome to the studio tyler good to see you how are you doing good my video is blocked when i try to start it oh odd i'm sorry for this no problem we can just do audio for now and maybe okay i have used the video lately it Maybe on your side. Maybe. Well, we'll troubleshoot it. Let's just talk like it's a phone call. Okay, great.

1:02:11I wanted to start with artificial intelligence. There's a new release from OpenAI today, but it's mostly about programming and a new code model. But can you give us an update on how you're using just any AI tools, really, and what your experience has been? Well, I use AI tools for everything. That was almost an understatement. So I just took a trip to an event in southern Utah, and I used strong AI to plan the whole thing, the whole route where I would visit, where I would stop, where we would eat. It worked wonderfully. There were not hallucinations. But more typically, if I'm reading a book, most of the books I read are history books.

1:02:54So I want background on things that I don't know the full story for. And then what I'll do is just keep on asking the AI. So instead of reading, say, seven books on a topic, I'll read maybe two and spend the rest of the time asking the AIs. So that's a very different approach. But you get very good customized answers and you can keep on asking. It's right in front of you. You don't have to wait for the book to come. At the margin, it's cheaper than ordering more books. So it's changed my whole life. Do you think the future is not ordering the book at all and just talking to the AI? Because a lot of these books are so baked into the LLMs, you could just hear about a book and then say, hey, tell me about the first chapter.

1:03:38And then it'll kind of spit out the basic books. Or using memory functionality and say, tell me the things that you think I'll actually care about. Oh, yeah, from this book. Well, you're saying the future. I would say it's the present. Yeah. I guess you're right. Now, you might want one or two books to get you started on your questions. I'm not even sure you will need that at some point. But I don't think my status quo practice is to have no books, but it's to have radically fewer books. What about kind of the post-education piece of reading these books? Are you doing any interactions with AI to kind of like take notes and memorize things or kind of collect your takeaways while you're reading and learning new topics?

1:04:30No, I've never really taken notes on things with or without AI. So I don't think I'll start now. Now, as you mentioned before, there is now AI memory. Yeah. I've only had that a very small number of days. I'm not sure what I'll use it for. I'm not sure it will matter for me, but we'll see. It might send things my way I wouldn't have known of otherwise. So I do think about what queries I feed into the AI. I'm not worried about privacy, but I just want to be smart for it. So it thinks I'm smart and treats me accordingly. Yeah. What about deep research? Has that worked its way into your workflow or has kind of the five to 10 minute delay been a barrier to adoption?

1:05:16The delay is no problem for me. I've been using O1 Pro more than deep research because often I just want short answers. I've used deep research quite a bit for my class. So if I want them to read a paper on something, well, I can look on JSTOR or I can just have deep research create the paper. And it does that very well. I think it's still a bit wordy, but it's very impressive and really quite accurate. So it is double or triple checking things. It hallucinates less, say, than Google or Wikipedia might. So I've been using that. It's gone quite well. Can you talk a little bit about the workflow with teaching?

1:05:57You mentioned last time we talked something about kind of a flip to the way you teach where you are judging the students on how much they teach you. Can you kind of reiterate and expand on that idea? Well, one thing I do in this class, this is a PhD level class in history of economic thought. I tell my students they need to write their papers using advanced AI. And I grade them just on how good the paper is. They then should explain to me how they used it. And I will indeed learn things from that. But we're already in the world where so many people are using this. How well you can write a paper without AI.

1:06:36It's not any kind of predictor or useful indicator of how well you're going to do. So we just need to start teaching them that skill. So I teach them what I know. I encourage them to provide tips and advice to each other. You know, we're all new at this, right? It's a new thing. And we're all learning as we go along. So far, it's been great. How are you thinking about AI and the future of work, job displacement, all of that? Well, you say future, but I would stress the present. I think a lot of companies should hold off on hiring people with particular skills because those people will not be as good as the AI is likely to be, you know, a week or two from now would be the blunt way to put it.

1:07:22Are there different sets of skills that companies should be hiring for? Like a certain, I don't know if it's like neuroplasticity. We like to joke about the concept of like golden retriever mode being friendly and focusing more on friendliness than intelligence because intelligence is becoming too cheap to meter. But being a great co-worker and being a great interface between different parts of the organization and ultimately AI models who provide the intelligence potentially is growing in importance. What's your read on that? I use the word charisma for your friendliness. Yeah. They also have to inspire the other people.

1:08:01And simply being friendly doesn't do that. You might need a sharper edge. So a lot of people in VC, I wouldn't say they're unfriendly, but friendly isn't exactly the way you would describe them. They're inspiring, first and foremost. I think also having good taste is very, very important. So someone still has to interpret the products of the AI or decide what's a good answer or which model to ask a particular question. And that's a question of taste. So taste and aesthetics have become more important. What about, I mean, is it useful to look at the initial rollout of the internet where it felt like wisdom or knowledge became too cheap to meter?

1:08:47And that maybe became less important to have someone on your team who just was an encyclopedia of facts because it became so quick to look up everything. yeah i remember been through this before right growing up yeah you know being born in the 90s and then having access to the internet almost as soon as i was very conscious yeah i was intuitively aware that memorizing sort of facts uh didn't feel like such a valuable skill set in the classroom because you would go home and you'd be doing your homework and you'd obviously be sitting in front of a computer and have access to that information yet it was still baked into the curriculum pretty intensely, but you're basically saying, almost like what does a curriculum look like if intelligence is like...

1:09:30Well, you don't need to focus on wisdom, and maybe you don't need to focus on intelligence, and maybe it's just purely charisma from now on. I don't know. Tyler? Well, I'm not sure of all the net effects here, but keep in mind, the people who know a lot and understand it, that's an important qualifier. Yeah. They're now a thousand times more productive than before because they're managing these armies of AIs. So you may not need to hire more of them But the ones you hire who are good Will be much more important by a lot Not just by a little So I don't think it's simply Substituting away from intelligence You want beings who can manage Other intelligent entities Humans or AIs And a lot of those people will be very smart Yeah Do you think the bicycle for the mind metaphor Is still apt?

1:10:17I mean, bicycles are great but it's better if you're Lance Armstrong, right? Sure. I'm not sure I know the metaphor, though. This is what Steve Jobs said. A computer is a bicycle for the mind in the sense that a human on a bicycle is the most efficient energy per mile per hour device, even faster, even more energy efficient than a cheetah. And so a human by themselves is underperforming relative to a cheetah, but you give the human a bicycle and it's the most energy efficient mode of transportation. Oh, sure. Yes, that makes sense to me. So I think some mix of knowing facts, but understanding them, having great taste and having the initiative to manage an army of AIs and the willingness to do the juggling involved.

1:11:10It's a very complicated set of traits. But my sense is the people who have those will do just very, very well. Can you talk about, you wrote recently around American soft power and AI. If you had to sort of summarize your takeaway from the article, what would you share with our audience? Well, it makes me more optimistic about America that we're the AI leader. You know, the Chinese models, DeepSeek and Manus, as you probably know, they're based on American AI. So as the Chinese government uses AI more and more, it will be more dependent on Western modes of thought. And they can censor the AI on Taiwan, on Tiananmen Square, but they can't really change how it thinks without making it much stupider.

1:11:59So we're taking them over is one way to put it. Not in the sense of conquering them, but the Francis Fukuyama vision, I think, will be realized through AIs. Can you expand on that? Well, the smartest entities in China already, but more and more as the future arrives, will be AIs. And those are American. Again, even if it's deep sea Germanus. So their smartest entities all of a sudden are American. How would we feel if all of our smartest entities were Chinese? We'd be like, whoa. Well, that's the position we're in now. That's a great take. I like that. um how do you how do you think of uh tariffs in the trade war in the context of the ai revolution we were joking not not joking it's a serious topic but as these sort of tariffs you know were rolling out um i i was saying this almost feels like in some way you know picking up pennies in in front of a steamroller um and you've said before that you don't sort of believe in in sort of this almost instant massive GDP growth, but it still feels like AI has the potential to transform our economy by 10 ,000 percent.

1:13:15And tariffs can have an impact, a very significant impact on a bunch of different factors, but maybe not even necessarily as impactful and maybe the wrong thing to be arguing about as a country. But I'm curious to get your take on it. the AI race is much more important. But to win that, you want free trade in the inputs for AI, which is quite a few different things. Now, you might want export controls on China, which we have to some extent. I'm not sure they're effective, but I don't see any downside to trying them. But in the meantime, you want to just take in everything as much as you can, as cheaply as you can, as quickly as possible.

1:13:55So I would say it's an extra reason to be skeptical about the tariffs. I mean, you said there's maybe no downside to trying the export controls. Are you familiar with Ben Thompson's new argument that maybe the downside is that it makes an invasion of Taiwan more likely? And in fact, keeping the Chinese dependent on Taiwan increases global stability if you take away the trade restrictions? I don't know that I'm fully in support of that, but that's the argument that he's been making. I've discussed that with Ben. I don't think it's impossible that he's right. It's just very hard to predict that kind of thing.

1:14:35I'm not sure the expected value calculation falls his way. Again, I would gladly admit export controls may not work out well. It just seems odd not to try the first order policy to slow China down. I suspect whether or not they invade Taiwan on whatever date, they'll just develop quality chips and lithography themselves, and it probably won't matter that much. But trying to forecast their Taiwan decisions, it's very hard to have a good theory of that one way or the other. How excited are you about American semiconductor production? You know, there's the TSMC facility in Arizona seems to be having good results.

1:15:20NVIDIA is talking about, you know, partnering with Foxconn to produce$500 billion of their new Blackwell chip. Is all of that, you know, marketed? How real is that in your mind? Is that something that, you know, we think that you think the United States can sort of lean on when it comes to the sort of broader AI race? I read and hear a lot of propaganda on that, saying it's going very well. I don't feel I have trustworthy sources of my own. As an economist, my view tends to be supply is elastic, and if you pay for something, you'll get it. So I suppose I'm inclined to believe the propaganda, but I'm still not sure yet.

1:16:01Makes sense. What has been your reaction to Ezra Klein's new abundance agenda? And well, it would be much better for the Democrats and the Democratic Party and indeed all of us if the party became about that. And that's Ezra's main goal. So in that sense, I'm fully on board. Yeah. But that said, I think one has to go a lot further. And I had a podcast with Ezra on my own podcast. And I'm like, well, Ezra, are you willing to fire a lot of these people? You know, they're in the way. There's kludgeocracy plus AGI is coming. and he and Jennifer Palka, they both seem like very reticent to me when you push them on.

1:16:43Okay, I agree, but let's go a bit further here. Like you can't just be right 10 % if you're right. And I think you are right. You know, you're right 75 % or more. So let's take this as a good step one and see it through consistently. Yeah, it seems like one of those platforms that's almost directly out of the West Wing, where it's inspirational, it can win, but will it actually work? And those are two different questions. And I think this might be something that is a message that can win, but maybe not change things, is my fear. But I don't know if you feel the same. Well, I don't know if it can win.

1:17:23So I suppose my view of the Democratic Party is that it will splinter the way the Republican Party has splintered. So the Republicans right now, to some extent, they're unified around the figure of Donald Trump. But intellectually, they're all over the map. That may have upsides, downsides, but I think it's clearly true. And I suspect the same will happen to the Democrats. So the abundance thing will be one faction of 17. It'll be the one I'm rooting for. It'll win some partial victories. That'll be nice. But I don't think it will ever be in charge. I don't think any of them really will be in charge.

1:17:55Yeah. Do you think it's more driven by the personality of the particular candidate? Because with the Trump election, you would see a diehard libertarian voting for Trump. You know, in the same in the voting booth next to them is someone who's highly protectionist in favor of tariffs. And they both kind of wound up rallying around the same person for very different ideological reasons. my guess is that will happen to the democrats also i mean biden was like the anti-personality candidate he literally had no personality you couldn't go meet with him you couldn't see him on tv there wouldn't be a press conference it's sort of like i mean he he didn't exist in fact in a way and i think they'll rebel against that and way overshoot yeah do you think we need uh more weird uh ideas around ai you shared something earlier out of uh google uh they're they're using uh google's uh i think it's their deep mind team is using google ai to help decode dolphin communication which just feels like it feels like right now there's a lot of attempts on uh which i think are important of unlocking the power of ai in private equity unlocking unlocking the power of ai for lawyers yet there's this whole other sort of spectrum of ways that You can apply this technology.

1:19:16And I personally, I would like to see more more, you know, maybe there's not immediate commercial opportunities. But at the same time, you know, I can imagine U.S. consumers would probably pay a hundred dollars a month to be able to communicate with their dog. You know, so like maybe there are sort of exciting commercial opportunities and sort of human to animal communication. But how do you think about, you know, needing sort of newer, more sort of creative ideas as this technology gets broadly adopted? Strong agree. I want to be the first human to do a podcast with a dolphin. I feel I already communicate with my dog.

1:19:55He has little more to say than what I get already, which is I want to eat. I need to, you know, go in the backyard and so on. But yes, I think the non-elites will come up with a lot of these ideas. And they'll be hugely successful. Why non-elites specifically? I mean, that example was from Google. Feels like the most elite people in the world, or like the most elite team in AI, at least. I don't know who there had those ideas. Sure. Talking to the animals is a Dr. Doolittle thing, right? Is he an elite? I don't know. Yeah. But I think elites feel threatened and indeed will be threatened by AI because it's smarter than they are.

1:20:34And a lot of non-elites will just be like, How can I make this useful for me? Because they're not expecting to be, you know, the so-called smartest person in the room. Yeah. That's why. Speaking of that, like, kind of weird, useful AI, how did you process the Studio Ghibli moment a few weeks ago? Well, no elite would have predicted it, but obviously people loved it. And just something about it worked. I hope it didn't, you know, fry the servers on the cloud computing. But, you know, the stuff is still up and running. And there was something online. I forget the numbers, but some radical upsurge in use of ChatGPT in the last few weeks.

1:21:12Sam gave the numbers. Just stunning. And we're going to have a bunch more of these moments in the next year or two. Do you think there will be a kind of a cohesive renegotiation around intellectual property that comes out of the AI era? I hope not. But, you know, media is in big trouble because you can read a smarter, clearer version of the story on the AI tailored for you. There is a free rider problem here. I don't know what kind of arrangement we'll come up with. I don't want government subsidized or government controlled media. Maybe it'll be some weird barbells equilibrium where there's like the New York Times and then there's bloggers and tweeters and not that much in between.

1:21:58I don't know. I do think it's a real problem. But to make the AI companies pay for everything the model reads, that strikes me as a bad idea. And I would rather win the AI race with China than do that. Yeah. I mean, Nat Friedman was just kind of running the numbers and saying that OpenAI has more than enough money to hire every single journalist in America on a full-time salary just to create content that eventually goes into the training and into the models, which is a very, very odd outcome, but financially it could work. I don't know if that's actually how it'll play out though. Yeah. Google has a lot of money.

1:22:37I'd rather see corporations do it. Sure. Bloomberg, where I used to work, both has money and does hire a lot of journalists and that's very high quality. So there's a number of models. I just prefer to keep the government out of it and not to slow down the AI companies either. Do you think that AI is broadly priced in yet? It feels like NVIDIA in many ways priced to perfection, but it feels like many other industries haven't had maybe the, and companies haven't had the corrections you might think they would have if they were on the verge of massive disruption. People are asleep. While the disruption may come slowly, it will come.

1:23:26And I think there's a lot of places, companies, with mid-tier quality software that will end up devastated, you know, within five years. Not as quickly as some of the crazy people think, but, you know, within a time horizon relevant for share prices. Yeah, like I look at people today, the hot thing has been buying accounting firms. And like buying an accounting firm that does accounting for small businesses that, and you're buying a firm for, call it eight times earnings. And it's like, do you believe that in five, like the idea is like in like small businesses will be quick to adopt technology that saves them a meaningful amount of money.

1:24:05So the idea is like, can you keep prices high, grow earnings and introduce technology that basically undercuts, cuts the existing service offering that you just paid up to get, I don't know if that's a good strategy. That's a great example. If you could short nonprofits, I'd short most of them too.

1:24:28Well, I mean, speaking of some of the crazy people, did you have a chance to read or read about AI 2027? And what was your reaction? Well, I always ask those people, are you short the market. And I never get a straight answer. Those are private conversations. But there's one prominent doomster. His response to me was, well, I don't know how to short the market. I just giggled. I'm like, ask the AI if you don't think the AI can arrange that for you. It's probably not very threatening. So look, any new technology has a lot of dangers. You shouldn't rule out any scenario. But what I tell those people is do what the climate change people did.

1:25:11Take this to peer review, referee journals, make a serious case. Don't just write, you know, the blog post with 17 different vertically arranged separate points. Yeah. And see where you get with it. The other kind of response I have, it's jokey, but also serious. I say, I would rather be an American paperclip than a Chinese paperclip. So it's coming anyway. You You want to have it on your terms. There is no pause option. We got to try to win this thing. Yeah. How do you think about AI adoption? I know it sounds like a simple question, but I feel like this is an interesting technology where every single person that I know, and I am in a bubble, right?

1:25:56I live on the coast. I work in tech broadly. And everybody I know, and even I was talking to the guy who details my car, I was telling him that he should expand into a sort of adjacent category because I wanted it myself. And he told me that he spent the entire ride home last week just talking with ChatGPT, right? Like using it as this sort of like personal tutor on a business opportunity. So we're in this interesting scenario where AI in many ways seems in sort of certain segments seems to have been like fully adopted, like it's being used. and you know and now it's just more about the sort of capability unlock right in all these different use cases but i'm curious how you think about sort of okay everybody's using ai now um but they're not i mean it's totally brutal you've got to get out of your bubble like a lot of people use chat gpt for something trivial yeah yeah they don't take it seriously It's like another app.

1:27:01Like they used it to name the dogs puppies or something. And they have no idea it's going to change their lives. That's the default mode of our elites. Yeah, that makes sense. And I was at a prestigious New York event just like two or three months ago with five people, all of whom are well known. And I used the three letter phrase AGI. Not one of them knew what I meant. I don't mean they didn't understand it in a deep sense. Maybe none of us do. They didn't even know what I was referring to. That's where we're at. Wow. Yeah, that's shocking. How do you think about economic growth? It feels unimaginable that AI would not be the thing to disrupt stagnation and get us at least to 3%, 4%, 5 % real GDP growth annually.

1:27:52And yet, it doesn't feel like we've seen it yet. that even in energy production, I think China's adding 20 % energy production a year, and it's still essentially stagnant in the United States. Are you expecting things to change, or will it just be a reshuffling of the deck, even though things will be disrupted, there's not really a net new experience of our economy or our energy infrastructure? Oh, I think it will improve slowly. But if you look at our economy, And I'm going to sound like Peter here. Like, just add up what percent of it is totally non-functional, non-adaptive, bureaucratic, much of health care, most of government, higher ed, K through 12, nonprofit sector.

1:28:38Like, that's more than half the economy, right? Yeah. And at what speed will that respond? The stuff that responds quickly, which is great, of course, it becomes so cheap, it's an ever smaller share of GDP. So it's very hard to get the growth rate up by a lot. I think it will happen. But one way to put it is the better the AI is, the more the human imperfections matter. We're already at the point where they're going to put out new models. And most people aren't smart enough to see that they're better. Yeah. So I'm all for the new models. They will ultimately matter. But you need to restructure, rebuild almost every institution for the growth rate to truly accelerate.

1:29:20And that will happen. but it's a generational project. Is that a warning sign? I mean, the counter to every AI doomer has always been, in my mind, like the cars aren't even driving themselves yet fully. Like surely the cars will drive themselves for a couple months before the cars are terminators that are killing us all. And is that kind of like an early warning sign for taking AI more seriously? Or should we already be really discussing AGI at every fancy dinner party that you get invited to? Well, I think we're going to have AGI this coming week. So it depends how you define it. I think driverless cars, as they spread, will have a big impact.

1:30:10And they're coming to Washington, dc this year that's an important city for obvious reasons and i think that will change many people's perceptions yeah because they do work and they are much safer and there are no associated problems except maybe for the two days a year it snows here so yeah i think that will really matter but right now it's what san francisco and northern arizona and one other place yeah uh and the bay area people they are pilled but white pilled black pilled whatever about ai and no one else is new yorkers are the worst i think you see the national security people are pretty awake that's that's very good uh even the staffers can be pretty good we're way ahead of new york in dc but that's not saying much how do you uh do you feel like humanoid robots are or like somebody, a Henry Ford alternative saying, I'm going to build a mechanical horse, or do you think that humanoid robots can be the right form factor for AI, embodied sort of AI labor?

1:31:22Robots still seem far away to me. I'm not dogmatically convinced they're far away, But I would say they're far enough away that it's difficult to forecast when they'll get here. So my thinking is mostly about the smarts in a box more than the robots. The robots seem to need pretty controlled environments. San Francisco streets are that, factories are that, and that's already significant. But just that there's like more robots than people in the world, that seems distant. on robots that could have a potentially you know faster and greater impact or at least greater in the short term how do you think about companies like zipline that are doing instant delivery via drone we had the founder of zipline on last friday and it was pretty exciting to think about just reducing congestion on roads by eliminating all these big heavy cars driving around you know know, a hamburger for 20 miles, you know, all day long.

1:32:27I'm all for that. It's pure gain, but I think those gains are pretty small. And we could already do congestion pricing, as a few places have done, and solve that problem as it is. And most of traffic is not like your Amazon delivery person. It's a modest share of it. So again, I'm all for it, but I don't think it will noticeably change life. Yeah. On the AGI question, I feel like these definitions get wrapped up in benchmarks or IQ tests or human performance. But I've always wondered if it's almost better to think about the impact of AI through an economic lens and say something like, AGI is here when AI is producing GDP greater than humans or something along those lines.

1:33:18Is that a useful framework or am I just thinking about it all wrong? You know, Satya Nadella said some version of that, but with different numbers. You know, my AGI definition, just to be totally self-centered is, when it's smarter than I am, I call it AGI. And I think that's coming within the next few days. So I get that's not the only definition, but surely it's a meaningful benchmark of some kind. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it makes sense. It's just the difference between fast takeoff, slow takeoff, almost like fast rollout versus slow rollout. We could have the genius intelligence that's too cheap to meter.

1:33:58But I think people won't care as much until it's actually everywhere having an impact all over the world. And so I think that once it arrives, it could drop just like the passing of the Turing test dropped, where we just kind of move on with our lives. I have one very short last question that I think is relevant. Tyler, how much smarter do you think you've become due to AI and using it day to day, if at all? I'm not sure what you mean by smarter. So I've been using it lately to learn English medieval history, and I know much more about that than I would otherwise. I mean more like maybe quality of thinking.

1:34:44No, I don't feel that way. You know, in chess that's been a factor, but I think maybe it will help some people who are less rational. Maybe I'm already there and so irrational I don't know it, but I don't feel it's improved the quality of my thinking. is that dependent on like discoveries, like, or almost like frameworks? Like if AI discovers the next, you know, law of supply and demand, that would make every economist smarter, right? I don't think it will. I think there's a lot of areas we're never going to learn much more, not because the AI is weak, just there's only so much to learn. Sure.

1:35:25But I think there's a lot of people, you see this already, like the AI tells them to calm down or please rethink that email before you send it. Sure. It's quite significant. I just don't think I'm in that category at age 63. Yeah. But yeah, it's helping a lot of people think better. Just not me. That makes sense. Well, thank you so much for hopping on. We really enjoyed talking to you. Yeah, very insightful. We'd love to have you back in the future. This is really enjoyable conversation. My pleasure as always. See you around. Take care. Talk to you soon. Bye. See ya. Yep. Well, AGI this week, folks.

1:36:00AGI this week. You heard it here from Tyler. Yeah, I wonder, what is he referring to exactly? Is this a new OpenAI release? I don't think it's 4.1. Okay. Because that was really oriented around. Wait, 4.1. Because we're at 4.5. Anyway, let's bring in our next economist. We're doing a little econ day here. We got Arakarazian from Ramp. You might have heard of him when we did our personnel news segment. Boom, look it. In the suit. In the suit. Let's go. Looking great. Great to talk to you. Welcome to the show. How are you doing? Thank you, guys. I'm a big fan of the show. You guys have done such a good job.

1:36:33I love the announcement. So happy to jump into it. Yeah, yeah. The idea with those is, you know, very low TAM, but we want to set the Slack account on fire in whatever company gets one of those messages. But thanks for joining the show today. We want to talk about the release today. Can you break down the announcement? how regularly these spending reports are, and then we'll go into some of the top takeaways. Yeah. I mean, I'll start by talking about the main question that I get asked a lot, is that, you know, what is my job? Why do I do it? Why does Ramp even have an economist? I think it confuses a lot of people.

1:37:11But I think it really does come from Ramp's product, right? It's a spend platform. But what Ramp, I think, figured out very effectively is that businesses aren't just looking to spend money. They're looking for help on how to make decisions how to spend their money most effectively, what the best businesses are doing. And so features like that are always integrated into RIM's product to help businesses make those kinds of calls. But the logic of my role is that we can help a lot more businesses make decisions by making a lot more of that data public. Data both about how businesses are spending money, but also where these economic trends are going and how your business can operate within them.

1:37:50And so our latest spending report, what we put out this month, gets right at that. We're looking at trends in AI adoption. Our main finding is that 35.5 % of American businesses have already adopted AI to produce goods and services. That's four and a half times higher than the current U.S. census estimate. And then we also posted a lot of results about general business spend trends, where businesses are spending more money, where they're pulling back. But the idea here is really to be able to say something really compelling and new about what's going on in the economy and try to respond to the fact that there's not a lot of public data available about where businesses are spending right now.

1:38:27Can you, just jumping right into the first point, can you talk about how you guys came to the 35.5 % number? Because I imagine it's pretty hard to triangulate given that you can get AI in a non-AI product, as an example, right? Like you're using Google workspace and it, it's sort of like, you know, pops up a little like, you know, magic wand icon and you click it and that's like technically using AI. Clippy's coming back. We've said this here. Clippy's coming back. We're bullish on Clippy. We're making a poly market for it. But, but, but then, you know, different, you know, differently, it's like a company directly spending money on open AI or Grok or Anthropic or any of these other things.

1:39:07So I'm curious how you got there because we've been talking, we were just talking with Tyler Cowen. What is AI adoption right now. It feels like in our world, it feels like it's 100%. But you know, it's also very different to use open AI as like a search engine versus using it to develop software. Yeah, totally. Yeah, well, you guys are getting at the key issue with a lot of these conversations about AI is that nobody's really sure where to draw the line about what AI is, if it's going to be integrated into every single tool. And that's similarly, I think what you get with the problem of a lot of AI adoption measurements, the current US Census survey, for example, is just a survey question.

1:39:45And it's asking one person at the company, typically the person who answers the phone, whether or not they're using AI to produce goods and services. And it's kind of a confusing question to answer because what does that mean? Does it mean we're using AI for our manufacturing processes and robots, or are we using it to make sure all of our customer service agents have this body of knowledge, which should answer questions. I mean, by the way, no shade to the Census Bureau. They produce a lot of really great work. And shout out to them, they have a lot of really great economists on staff. But I do think we can do a lot better if we're trying to measure AI adoption, we should probably use data sets that measure actual transaction activity.

1:40:28Yeah. We have access to the contracts that businesses are using to engage with the large model companies. We can actually see the size of those contracts, how that adoption is changing, and particularly how that's changing in different sectors. And that's really where you get a lot of variability, right? I mean, you see adoption rates in our measurement for technology are about 65 % in the tech sector. And that sounds kind of low. You'd think, why is there a tech company that hasn't adopted some kind of AI tool? But, you know, when you look at this actual spend data, you also have to remind yourself that businesses are much more diverse than we realize.

1:41:03there are large and small companies that are still evaluating whether or not ai makes sense for their business there are companies that are still using the free versions their customers their employees at many companies that are using their own free that's not going to be captured in our data set either and there's other companies that are spending money with accenture saying like we want to have an ai strategy but we're going to give you review the deck in q4 and then decide if ai is right 200 million dollars have you had uh like venture capitalists reach out to you You're like, hey, let me get an early read on the spend report.

1:41:33I want to know. I want to front run it. Because I feel like every time I see the screenshot go out, I'm like, okay, there's the next series. There's the next set of series Bs that are going out. We get that question. I get a message on LinkedIn or Twitter daily. There are probably people who are listening who are going to message me now or have a response. The goal is to make this data public. Yeah, of course. The goal is to make it as available to as many people as possible. And look, there's the business side of it where we really want to help businesses make better decisions. But there is also a public service aspect to this kind of work, which is, look, if AI is going to be this transformative technology that's going to change our economy, it's going to move all of our economic indicators, it's going to increase labor productivity.

1:42:15The very first place we're going to see that is in AI adoption rates. And so if you are a policymaker that is building policies that's going to try to move these metrics, we should probably know what that metric is. And I don't think 8 % is the current US sense of sentiment. I just don't think that's the right number. But even so, I think we can add something to the public discourse by showing people, well, there's still a lot of room to grow. We have 18 % of restaurants on our platform are also using AI right now. And that doesn't mean they're using it to serve people, but when we talk to them, they're using it for a lot of back office tasks, which means 82 % of restaurants haven't done that yet.

1:42:56Yeah. Can you restate those high level numbers? Census at 8 % and then your estimate was what? 35.5 % is our estimate across US businesses. That's like significantly higher. Last month's growth was higher than previous months. Wow. So it's saying that we're not at this point yet where AI adoption is plateaued, where companies have figured out how to implement it yet. Yeah, yeah. The other thing I would say is that what we have observed is there's this sort of learning curve in AI adoption where your first month on an AI platform does not mean that's how you're going to stick to implementing into your operations.

1:43:32You might be evaluating multiple vendors. We often see in ramp data that businesses are multi-homing AI vendors and using open AI, but they're also using Anthropic and they're using the more verticalized services available to them. See a lot of experimentalism where they use one model for one month and they switch to a different vendor for another month. So all of this stuff is still very early. It's still developing. Yeah. What is the ramp data showing about the current market chaos and tumult around tariffs? Yeah, I mean, it's a really common question that we've gotten. Look, we haven't seen a significant slowdown in, if that was the concern, we haven't seen a sort of slowdown in business spend on ramp data yet.

1:44:16That's typically what you'll find in both ramp data, but you'll find that a lot of public and private data sets as well. last week we did go out and actually talk to a bunch of businesses we interviewed 30 businesses in retail and construction and manufacturing to try to figure out how they did feel about tariffs and we found a few main main points in our findings i think we found first of all there's a lot of policy uncertainty that businesses are concerned about they're not sure how to respond to the tariffs how to adjust their operations quite yet a lot of them are in this sort of wait and see mode where they're trying to wait for tariff policy to settle before they make significant changes in their spending decisions.

1:44:55So that's part of why I think we haven't seen that in our data yet. Though we did talk to several businesses who told us that they were pausing all capital expenditures until they see the tariff policies clearly settled. How that's going to affect our data, I do think we're going to need a couple more months to really find it. But so far, we haven't seen aggregate changes in business spend in both ramp data and in private data sets, public data sets. Is there another leading indicator? I mean, AI might be something, I know it's like the most important segment to follow in the spending report, but at the same time, I imagine that a company that's going into a tumultuous financial market, that might not be the first place that they cut.

1:45:35They might actually double down on AI and cut back. But in terms of the type of expenditures that go through corporate cards, what's kind of the canary in the coal mine for a recession? You know, in like the Fed data, we usually look at like credit card delinquencies or car loan repayments or something like that. But are there specific categories within corporate spend at American companies that you would expect to track more closely as a leading indicator of a recession? Yeah, and it's definitely gonna depend on the sector. Sure. So we're gonna have some sectors that are a little bit more exposed to tariffs they're going to be making those changes a little bit sooner than others.

1:46:15Sure. I mean, I generally start by looking at the largest categories of spend by business and thinking about where you're going to see budging or movement there. So advertising is one. Digital advertising, I think, is a really great way of measuring how businesses feel about the economy. You know, we rely a lot in the public sphere on these CFO surveys or CEO surveys about business expectations. But if you really want to know how a business feels about their prospects, you should look at their digital ad spend. Yeah, that makes sense. Because that is what's going to capture whether or not they see the value in putting ad dollars to trying to get new customers or increase their revenues.

1:46:57I mean, we're seeing some changes there. So we're seeing as of last month, year over year, 55 % of large businesses reduced their ad spending or kept it the same. small businesses however but that's going to include startups are increasing their ad spend year over year that's going to be a harder sector to track startups don't always track the overall economy they can be a little uh a little skewed in that way but it is worth noting that we are seeing some declines in advertising spend which could suggest some some kind of uh yeah it's just an easy thing to react you can go into facebook of course google and just immediately reduce your budgets and and it's a way to just be a bit more you know pragmatic I think secretly every entrepreneur thinks am I really getting my money's worth on those google brand keyword ads like maybe we should do that hold back test and cut those back this month and then uh see what happens to revenue and then eventually they sneak back in and you're like I want to own my key can you can you talk about spend across the different model providers even at a high level.

1:47:59I know there's been some interesting data on DeepSeek specifically, you know, earlier this year, but can you dig in there? Yeah. So OpenAI is the clear leader in the model companies across business adoption. More than a quarter of businesses on our platform have an active contract with OpenAI. That's crazy. Yeah. And they were the first mover and it just shows you, they're sort of become synonymous with AI products and companies. And it's not just coming from the chat subscriptions. It's coming from their sort of API integrations down the line too. Anthropic is second, and they are still growing very quickly.

1:48:38But OpenAI is a clear leader in all of the markets that we're tracking. Though we are still seeing a lot of growth in some of the newcomers in the markets too. XAI has grown very quickly, despite only being a couple months old, really operating. Grok3 pushed a lot of their adoption up. You're still seeing some amount of experimentalism, some amount of that learning curve from businesses. DeepSeek had a really big spike in January when it really came to fruition. That slowed down a lot the following month. And NXAI has now sort of leapfrogged it. But they're still relatively small players. Yeah.

1:49:12Is it hard to understand AI spend with the hyperscalers? Because you can go to Microsoft and vend, you know, GPT-4 API into your organization. but that's probably just going to show up as Azure on your, on your ramp bill. If you're even billing it to your corporate card, you might have. You'd be surprised. I really have such a lucky job. I, as for sort of a private sector economist, I sit on such a good data set because a lot of those bills, they do actually, they produce the line items for API credits. And what, because you get the receipts too. It's not just the charge. Yeah. For deep seek, that was originally a challenge because how do you pay deep seek?

1:49:50Particularly when a lot of the business implementation of deep seek, DeepSeek was not necessarily going to go through DeepSeek the company. Totally. Because of the security concerns with using DeepSeek. And a lot of it was going through sort of these hyperscalers or a lot of the other companies that allow you to integrate an AI model that's working on their own local servers. Yeah. But even then, we'll see DeepSeek as the line item. And so we started putting that data out, try to get at, you know, we put an article out last month about whether or not businesses are actually adopting DeepSeek in high rates.

1:50:19So that business can really figure out, you know, where is this market trending? I think it's extremely hard to figure out without some data, given how quickly everything's moving in this industry. What is your tech stack look like for some of these analysis? Are you IPython notebooks? Are you using Julia or Julius? Two different data models. People can make fun of me, but I do a lot of work in a notebook. Yeah. It's great. I mean, it's skilled very effectively. But the real goal is to put things out quickly. Yeah. And so, you know, we have a lot of notebooks that are just outputting directly to our website every month.

1:50:58And similarly with the benchmark report that we just released, the goal, I mean, you'll note that it goes all the way through March data. And so the goal is to really provide people with the earliest available data as soon as possible, because particularly in this news environment right now, things can just become immediately outdated. Yeah. Great. um how what what is actually what does ai adoption look like across different teams because i can imagine at some of these larger companies you have an engineering team that's using you know uh devon or anthropic or cursor and then you have you know the marketing team which is using some like app layer company or they're just using open ai to generate images um how are you seeing it kind of roll out?

1:51:47Well, AI adoption is generally going to be higher at the large companies and the small companies. And we think it's for that specific reason. Large companies have many more teams, many of them using AI products and services, many of them aren't. And then those large teams, those teams at those large companies will then evangelize the products they're using throughout the company and increase the adoption rate that way. I mean, the model companies are still growing at a very fast rate. But one thing we saw this past month was that the coding platforms, the quote-unquote vibe coding platforms, the cursors of the world, the lovable, those are currently growing faster than the model companies themselves.

1:52:22It's seen growth rates in the 40s right now. And so, you know, people talk about, you know, whether or not, you know, any of this growth is sustainable. For what it's worth, businesses are clearly acquiring value from them. And the way these products are developed, I think, it's going to be really interesting to see how they get integrated. I mean, Canvas also, Canva just announced its version of it too. Yeah. That was also one of our fastest growing vendors last month, but it wasn't because of an AI coding thing. It was just because it's a really fast growing vendor that's implementing AI across all of its features.

1:52:55Yeah. Have you gotten pushback from any of these companies saying like, hey, maybe don't leak our financials? You know, it's like you're sharing too much insight, actually. Completely anonymous. So I don't think it's. Yeah, it's anonymous. But again, you're naming like a specific company. And for most of the companies, it looks amazing. and it's like, wow, they're growing so fast. Oh, you mean on the customer side? Yeah, yeah, yeah. You get an email from OpenAI saying like, hey, because of your spend report, people know that we're growing at 30 % instead of 40 % or this is off and we're actually growing bigger and non-ramp customers and so your data's low.

1:53:32Yeah, what's interesting about it is that we've had customers that we reported on reach out to us for more data on what we're reporting on. You can imagine that what's really great about having this data set at RAMP is that in some ways is, you know, the most comprehensive data set you can find about overall spending by businesses. And so you can say large AI company, for example, knows how much spending is happening on its platform, but they don't necessarily know how much spending is happening with the other AI model companies. Yep. Desires really to have some kind of data that estimates that sort of total market view.

1:54:08Yeah. And the logic of this role, again, is that businesses, people, everyone, businesses really make better decisions when they have access to better information. And I see my role as trying to put that kind of information out so that companies can make decisions that are right for them. And it's available to everybody for that reason. Are there CFOs on RAMP who come to you in a less positive light instead of saying, oh, what AI model should I be adopting or paying up for? Instead, they're like, give me the, what should I be cutting? Like, where are the biggest places to save money instead? Or, yeah, they're looking at like declines and then they're saying, oh, I'm going to target that.

1:54:53If everyone's unsubscribing from, I don't know, Netflix and their organization or something, they're going to try and do that internally to save money. They do. And that's the fundamental goal of this kind of work is not just to show you what to buy, but it's to show you, first of all, what to cut, what other things are cutting, how can you benchmark your business relative to how others are performing? yeah the goal is that if you have access to this kind of data through ramps product but also through the kind of research that we put out you might get a better picture about you know what it really means to be a high performing business how to run most efficiently uh which vendors to use and select and which vendors other people in your industry are using and then which ones they're not using yeah one thing you pulled out was a tiktok's ad platform leads in year over year spend growth signaling advertisers have not been deferred by the prospect of a ban.

1:55:43My question when I saw this was, is it possible that people are like, hey, we think this platform could get banned. Let's basically try to acquire every positive. Squeeze everything out of it at the last second. Squeeze it. Because rates will be low. Yeah. I think what's showing you is why there's going to be such a big bidding war for this kind of platform. Sure. The ad spend just continues to grow their user base i imagine still continues to grow yeah it is really one of those unique platforms that is able to both attract a lot of visitors but also keep them on the platform for a long time it's made ads on short form video kind of work well and it's still growing a lot i mean i i'm i'm really interested in seeing how different how this sort of tiktok tiktok fight fight plays out in the business side.

1:56:33Yeah. Makes a lot of sense. Polymarket has the recession at 51%. What does your gut tell you as an economist? How are we looking? My real goal here is just to put out data that help people make their appropriate guesses. I mean, I think there are a lot of headwinds, what we're hearing from businesses. So I hope those get dissolved. But hopefully, I hope people are able to make the decisions that make sense for their businesses based on what we're putting out. Yeah, that makes sense. Do you have any, do you have any, uh, thoughts on AI can, has the potential to be deflationary in some ways. Let's take like an e-commerce business who, you know, might spend$50 ,000 a month producing content to make ads.

1:57:22And then if, if suddenly they only need to spend like$5 ,000 a month, cause they're able to do one shoot and then just like generate iterations of it or maybe they're eventually able to you know just generate all the advertising content that they need in theory they would just take that budget and spend it to acquire more customers or spend it to launch new markets or things like that how do you think about um how do you think like long term about you know as ai drives efficiency where those dollars flow, right? Because if budget is being sort of reallocated because if AI can do something a lot more inexpensively, the budget will naturally flow to where it can sort of generate the highest possible return.

1:58:07And that could be as simple as like, oh, we spend$20 ,000 a month for the CPA firm with AI. We now only need to spend$5 ,000 a month because they don't need as many people working on it or something like that. But then again, you're gonna wanna to sort of reallocate that spend to continue to grow the business? Do you have any, do you have any sort of high level thoughts on if it's again, if it's going to, okay, let's just run more ads or things like that? Well, I think that real reallocation will happen. And I think that's the reason why we probably won't see deflationary pressure. I like I'm of the school of thought that AI will be a very transformative technology, I think it's going to change a lot of knowledge I think it's going to reduce costs for a lot of businesses.

1:58:53But at the same time, I am also fairly realistic about the fact that many parts of our economy just will never be touched by something like AI. I mean, it will be touched in some ways, right? Like me going to a restaurant, I imagine that restaurant will probably have much easier back office automation because of something like AI. But me sitting down across from someone at a restaurant is not a sit, which is a lot of most people's day to day spending, right? It's just going to businesses on your small business street. most of that is not going to be touched or moved. And so I think we'll see a lot of parts of the economy continue to grow.

1:59:26I think knowledge work is going to change a lot. And I'm bullish about the impact of AI.

1:59:34But, you know, I do think much of our day-to-day spending is going to stay fairly similar, as consumers at least. Yeah. Have you thought about any more niche industry benchmarking? I remember it was always useful to know how other companies in the same sector, how much are they spending on their legal bills or how much are they spending on e-commerce development and kind of have rules of the road. I did some back of the envelope with some rival companies at one point and found that some of the companies were way, way overspending. So we should be clearly under that. But I could imagine that type of benchmarking being useful just to kind of allocate budgets to say, hey, realistically, you know, the IT budget at a company of this size in this industry really shouldn't be more than like 5 % of our costs or operating costs, anything like that.

2:00:28Have you been able to produce anything like that? Or are you thinking about that? We're working on that right now. I mean, the goal is to be able to see whether or not you're a small construction firm in Kansas City and this is your current cost structure. Can you compare that to other construction firms in Kansas and see how you're tracking relative to them? I mean, I think that's going to be the real frontier that helps businesses make those kinds of decisions for them. Totally. Find out where they're over indexed and then when they're under indexed and then to try to track their performance following decisions.

2:01:01And just make it like a choice. There are times when you want to invest more than your competitors in a certain area, but there's other times when you want to be below them, and maybe that's your competitive edge. Well, thanks so much for joining. This was a fantastic conversation. Let's make it a quarterly thing. Yeah, I can't wait for the next one. And thank you for coming prepared. Yeah, you look fantastic. I know. People always think it's weird to... Everyone at work is commenting like, oh, I can't believe you wore a suit today. It's like, this has been the normal component of menswear for centuries.

2:01:30It's only weird now. You work in finance. Yeah, you work in finance. You work in finance. Finance. Finance. So address the part. Great to see you. We'll talk soon. Bye. next up we had i'm still i'm still thinking about how um tyler cowan just came in he's like AGI is here in two days and not super bullish on robots, but yeah, AGI is here. AGI is here. But it's not necessarily going to grow the economy as fast as we want, but it's still here. I mean, it's a good take because it's the same as the Turing test. Like we passed the Turing test and it was kind of a nothing burger. It was like, okay, yeah, you can chat now, but you probably still want to watch a live stream, especially when you have the founder of California Forever in the building.

2:02:16Welcome to the stream. Boom. What's going on? Good to be here. Hi, guys. Hi. How are you doing today? I'm pretty good. How are you? We're good. Could you start just by giving us the high-level pitch, introduce yourself and the company, the project? How do you refer to it? Sure. Jan Schrammig, I founded California forever, almost 10 years ago at this point. And we are building the next great American city. And so we own about 100 square miles of land, grazing land basically, just outside of San Francisco about half an hour east of Napa halfway between San Francisco and Sacramento and what we doing here would have been the least controversial project in California in 1960 when we when we still used to build stuff but somehow today it's become controversial but now it's really kind of going full steam in the last few months so now we have a couple of local cities moving to approve the new city.

2:03:13And then last week, we introduced a proposal to build the Solano shipyard, which would be the biggest shipbuilding complex in America to help with the shipbuilding crisis that the whole country is trying to solve right now. I mean, that sounds like pretty industrial. Is that important to have like an industrial plan and really like jobs growth engine? Because when I first heard about this, I was like, oh, it's like halfway to Napa. This will be just luxury mansions for people who have a place in Tahoe and also have a place in San Francisco, and they'll go out there on the weekends. But it sounds like you're planning for something much more ambitious than just a retirement community for liquid tech people.

2:03:59Oh, yeah, 100%. I mean, I really started the company eight years ago when it became clear that we were going to need basically what Silicon Valley used to be. I mean, you look at what the Valley used to be all the way through the 80s it was primarily hardware right until 1985 the biggest employer in the valley was Lockheed Martin it wasn't Microsoft it was an Oracle and so the focus from the beginning was yeah a bunch of really high quality housing great walkable neighborhoods but also how do you how do you go back to what the valley used to do which was make planes and microchips and and radios all the way back at the day and I mean that was eight years ago, but I think if you look at what's happened in the country and in the world over the last eight years, that's kind of just supercharged that whole effort.

2:04:47And so when we came out here and introduced the project about a year and a half ago, we said that we would want to bring particularly advanced manufacturing and aerospace and defense to Solano County. And it kind of got lost in a lot of the media coverage, but that's been the focus since the beginning. Has the controversy, which is a seemingly silly controversy, especially for our audience, because the idea that we should just build more housing and advanced manufacturing just seems like should be agreeable with every American. But do you feel like the controversy has actually maybe been beneficial at all in the ability to sort of like attract, you know, independent thinkers, people that otherwise, you know, if it was still the 1960s and everybody was just pro building in new cities, maybe it would have been harder to recruit, you know, just like truly exceptional talent to join the team in this sort of movement.

2:05:38Maybe it wouldn't have been in the 60s. Maybe it wouldn't have been. I think about California forever as somebody who grew up in the Bay Area and in Sonoma County. And, you know, I think about it as like very exciting, very ambitious and like, you know, something like very worthy of a ton of investment. But but back in the 60s, it would have been, you know, OK, a lot of people maybe thought that they should create another city or something like that. Oh, 100 percent. I mean, it's a great question. I think you're the first person who asked it, but we've definitely seen it, which is a similar thing that I think you've seen with early Android and early SpaceX, where if the whole world is saying, hey, this is a dumb idea, you can't build a new defense company in 2016 and you can't build a rocket company in, I don't know, 2004, 2005.

2:06:25We've definitely seen that the people who want to come and work on it are people who really believe. And it shows, right? It shows in the quality of the talent that you can get. And it is ironic in that if you propose this in 1960, there were a ton of these happening all over the country. I mean, Irvine is a great example in Southern California, right? Irvine is a city of 300 ,000 people. There's 250 ,000 jobs on Irvine. They have more jobs than they have working age residents. It's one of the safest places in America, some of the best schools. It is a different kind of a place. It's the best-in-class suburban community, if you want, but not what we're trying to build.

2:07:03But a huge success. That was started in, I think, 1962. There was zero controversy about it in the beginning. Same thing happened in other parts of the country, but it's kind of an old idea that we used to have and then we forgot it as a country. And then everyone is shocked that people can't afford to live anywhere because we stopped building stuff. What is the roadmap for actually building a new city? It sounds like there's a corporation here, you've raised money, there's investors, and at some point they might want to return on their investment. And then, like, what steps do you have to, what steps have you done?

2:07:36What steps do you still have to realize? And then it sounds simple to just go and build a city in some ways because it's, you know, there are companies that their whole job is building houses or building buildings. There are companies that need buildings to live in or people to live in. And, like, all of that makes sense. But then there's something that's still really hard. What is that thing? Yeah, I mean, I describe it as, I think someone coined the term complex coordination startup. There's no breakthrough here, right? There's no, we're not trying to make a rocket fly. We're not trying to cure cancer.

2:08:09We know all of the steps. You just have to put them together really, really well and finance it correctly and execute on it. And we do build new cities in America, not in California, largely, but we build them in Texas and Arizona. We just don't call them new cities. We call them master plant communities. Yeah. Now the difference is they are largely residential and they don't have manufacturing or jobs and so on, but we do build them. I kind of compare the company to a biotech company, which basically has three distinct stages. The first one is you kind of invent the drag. The second one is you go through the clinical trials and then you get it approved and then you commercialize it, right?

2:08:48You sell it. And for us, the three distinct stages was the first one was to buy the land. And so I spent seven years very quietly raising money and buying the land. And in the end, we bought about one. So one question, maybe you're about to say this, but were you piecing together like tons of different properties? Like, imagine there's not 100 square miles just sitting there like, hey, you want to buy this for one price? Yeah. Yeah, I wish. I wish that would have been easier. No, we it took seven years, 200 individual transactions, 700 individual sellers. and so it was probably it was probably the most successful I think land assembly in the history of the country but yeah it took seven years to put it together very long process and then so that's kind of phase one phase two is what we're going through right now which is the planning and the permitting yeah and so we're doing both the actual planning of how do you how do you design an incredible new city and how do you combine the old and the new in the best possible way to create a great quality of life.

2:09:56And that's going to take us about another two, two and a half years. And then we are hoping to break ground in 2028. And from then on, it's kind of the first phase in a biotech context, if you want, which is basically build and sell. And you start out slow and the first year will probably build 500 homes. And then the second year you build more. and eventually you're building thousands of homes every year. And all of the accompanying industrial space and retail and commercial space and so on. And really the vision is to build a city that actually looks pretty old school, at least in terms of on the surface.

2:10:35I mean, a place that looks very much like some of the most beloved neighborhoods in America, like at a smaller scale, Charleston, South Carolina or Savannah, Georgia. and then as the city grows and becomes bigger Chicago Brooklyn Philadelphia Georgetown yeah I'm excited to hear that because in many ways like the classic thing in in tech is you know you know it's not like you've maybe built like 10 cities before and so to come in and say like oh we're going to reinvent the city and just completely redesign everything and I I've had this theory for a while that like suburbs are like nice in a lot of ways I live in a I live in a small like gated community there's like 100 something homes it's like generally well run i like my neighbors i i have friends that don't live in suburbs yet and they like tell me like i just want to live somewhere that's like safe and community oriented why doesn't this exist yeah why doesn't this exist and i'm like you know there's the we we were sort of like you know i feel like uh our you know as a sub 30 year old my generation was like just against this idea of suburban living yet the idea to live like just outside of a major industrial area with like-minded people that has like family values and things like that is actually fantastic so I guess like how like did you did you know from the beginning that this sort of like historical concept of a city it was like pretty pretty good right like you're talking about like Charleston right like you can it's not like did did Charleston like have it figured out you know whenever they like created the city or did it sort of naturally evolve into that state and how did your thinking shift at all from the beginning of saying oh we need to completely reinvent this or or the right model already exists and we need to sort of emulate that in some way yeah I was pretty much in the camp of we know how to do this we just need to do it again so my take is that there's a tremendous amount of wisdom in how we design cities.

2:12:39I mean, we've been building cities for 10 ,000 years, right? It's not like iPhones. And so to come in and be like, I'm going to design a better phone, that's pretty reasonable, right? We've been building phones for 20 years, so you can kind of say, I'll do it better. Also the technology of what you can do has changed. And so it opens up new possibilities, right? Same with a car. But with a city, like you can do some smart things in it, but at the end of the day, it's It's a bunch of buildings and parks and schools and shops and businesses. And we've been doing it for 10 ,000 years, not in this country, but elsewhere.

2:13:11And so I think it's pretty arrogant to come in and say, we're going to redo all of this and do it from scratch. And I think a lot of the backlash against tech coming in and saying, we're going to invent how to do cities comes from that. People just saying, what are you talking about? And then particularly you have these images of steel and glass and everything is a skyscraper. It creates this very alienating human environment where people don't really like living there. And so I was pretty, and I also came into this after 10 years of living in the old York and the old Cambridge and London and Zurich and Manhattan and the old parts of San Francisco.

2:13:49And so I was pretty charmed at those places. and so from the beginning that was the idea and I think in particular we are pretty excited about this intermediate people call it now gentle density or missing density where right now what we have in America is you have mostly single-family subdivisions and then you have six-story buildings where you live in a small studio or a one bedroom apartment and if you have kids and you want some space for them to run around in the garden tough luck and we don't really build anything in the middle and I kind of think that the magic happens in the middle and that's why those neighborhoods are so charming right because you can have a row house and you can have a backyard so your toddlers can run around in the backyard but then the plot sizes are small enough that if you want to walk to a restaurant or your kids to school or to a coffee shop or you just want to go out at 6 p.m.

2:14:42and walk over five blocks and see your friend and have dinner with them you can do it and that's the sweet spot that we are really excited about. And so for us, most of the magic is two to five stories, row houses, small apartment buildings, what's called small parcel fabric. So every house is a little bit different. It has that old charm that you see in the marina or in Noe Valley locally in San Francisco. And we basically stopped building those neighborhoods. And I think they are really magical. And that's what we're mostly going to be building. Can you talk about the potential impact of a single new city with, you know, specific ideals, right?

2:15:20You talk about, you know, when I think about you have a hundred square miles, you're going to have, I don't know how many residents, but if you have thousands of homes, it's, you know, be tiny percentage of California's population, but could theoretically, you know, meaningfully, you know, impact like a bunch of different metrics. Can you talk about like what you think success is obviously like a new city that's thriving, has a local economy, a bunch of happy residents, families, people that, you know, generations that grow, you know, old there. But what is kind of success look like across, you know, whatever metrics you're sort of thinking about?

2:15:59Yeah, I mean, at a very micro scale, my personal goal, so we have, we have a couple of young kids and another one on the way and my personal metric, so we'll move in the first house in the city. And my wife has given me the goal of the first one has to go to school in the new city. She said preschool. I think that's going to be a push now, but we'll try to school. I think success is if kids can walk to school alone, that's a pretty big one. And I kind of think of kids as, they basically indicate a species, right? Like if you have a city where your kids can walk to school alone, it says a lot about the city.

2:16:37It says a lot about how close things are. It says a lot about safety. It says a lot about kind of neighborhood relations and you feel enough trust in the system that they're not going to get abducted. And police works and all kinds of stuff works, basically. So that's it at the very micro level. And then at the very macro level, I think there's a cultural moment in California where the state is kind of waking up from a few decades of not building very much.

2:17:10and I think when the history of the state gets written in 40 years or 50 years and they're talking about this kind of turning point in cultural attitudes and how the state kind of went back to what made it work for a century I would like California forever to be a footnote in it and say well one of the things that happened in this moment was this project and it kind of galvanized and helped rethink the attitudes towards growth in California. And it very much feels that way. It feels like, at least to me, it feels like a bunch of people left during COVID and they went to other places. And then they kind of learned the shortcomings of other places, let's just say that.

2:17:51And they realized that when nature or the almighty or whatever was creating California, it kind of was creating the planet it kind of got a uh unfair share of all of the advantages yeah can you prodigal son returns yeah so can you you know so growing up in the bay area yeah i watched as san francisco basically got worse every single year for like as i became an adult basically but i but and during covid i was in southern california and i had the same thoughts as everyone else you know sort of looking you know they said you can't go to the beach so i was like, well, if I can't even go to the beach, why am I here?

2:18:30And everything's closed down. I started like everyone else looking at Zillow and things like that. And other states decided to stay because I just spent my whole life here. And I really believe in California and I want to make it better. But can you talk about the sort of why California is so great? Because obviously, like I can imagine if this, if this model city works, then you could do other states, but you name the company California forever. So I imagine you, you, you would maybe even, and try to pursue this model in other places in California even. But can you give the bull case for California at a sort of extremely high level, ignoring all the last 20 years of politics and anti-growth and all that?

2:19:15Yeah, I mean, if you're trying to write history, right? So you write the history of the world and you write the history of America, and then people cross the continent, they cross all of these perilous deserts and most of them die and they get here and they kind of get to this place that just been blessed with geology and climate and all of the stuff. And then obviously the, what is it, the weak didn't make it and the ill we left along the way or something. So you get this cadre of people who come here who are just basically the self-selected pioneers. They get to the ocean and then there's nowhere else to go.

2:19:58And so they invent Hollywood and then they invent tech. And we basically create the two industries that have defined the 20th century. And then unlike with Detroit, those industries happen in a complete natural paradise where you can be skiing versus on the beach in four hours. And then the California values and the California ethos defines the 20th century. and then we screw it up because we can't build stuff it's ridiculous right like i grew up in post-soviet eastern europe with this vision of california as this place of optimism and opportunity and then after 28 years of my life i get here in 2013 and people are throwing rocks at google buses because we can't build enough housing which we've known how to do for 10 000 years and i'm sitting here like what the fuck is going on and then you look at how we designed the housing system and if you tried to break up a society and make everyone hate each other you would design the california housing system you would have a fixed housing stock in one of the most desirable places to live in the world which basically means that you make one person fight against another for housing and then you have the dumbest industrial policy in the history of america which is we invent every company worth anything in the country and then we force them to leave the state It's insane.

2:21:16It's like we're waking up from a bad dream. But I think what happened to your point about COVID is people went to other states and then they realized all of the problems there and they came back, but they came back with a different attitude. They came back and they said, hey, we've been living here, but we haven't really engaged in politics. But we're going to change that now because we looked at all of the other places in America and they are pretty nice, but they're not California. And so we're going to stay, but we're not going to let these radical ideas just destroy the state. And I think that's what you've seen in the next couple of years.

2:21:50And it feels like it's just accelerating. And we're pretty excited to kind of be part of finding the new middle path where you can show that you can build stuff, but you can also build it with California values. But you have to build it. You are not a progressive if there's no progress in your state. and you're not for economic opportunity if the teachers who teach in your school have to work, have to live two hours away and commute four hours every day. You're just not. And we have to reckon with that. How do you think about fire, wildfire prevention and protection? I'm sure you guys have thought about it a lot.

2:22:26I live in Malibu. John lives in Pasadena. So we both went through this. And it felt like the Palisades should have been in many ways, just it should have should have been more defensible than it was. And there was a lot of reasons that that happened. And so I can imagine if you're building a new city from scratch in northern California, which is fire prone and just the state has been fire has always been fire prone, right? If you look throughout history. And one thing that was interesting about the Palisades, I was talking with a friend and he said that there was like a commonality between the homes that didn't burn down and it was like some way that the roof was attached to the siding of the house and it was just like this one design decision that is like less uh less environmentally friendly like it doesn't you know maybe hold in um cool air as efficiently or something i i actually don't know specifics but that was like the common ground between all the homes that didn't burn so when you get to design a city from scratch, like the layout and everything, and then design all the homes from scratch, how do you think about that if the ultimate goal is to prevent, you know, fire, you know, destruction from fires, and then also make sure the cost of home insurance stays reasonable?

2:23:43Yeah, so here's a mind-boggling statistic. There isn't a single new neighborhood in California, not one, that ever burned down. Ever. No new neighborhood, sorry, in the last 20 years, no neighborhood that has been built after roughly 2000 has ever burned down. When there was a big fire in Mission Viejo down in Southern California, when there was a big fire in Santa Rosa, the new master plant communities, the new neighborhoods have become places of refuge where the firefighters take breaks. And that's because we've tightened up the building code so much in the last 40 years that these new buildings are borderline impossible to burn down.

2:24:26And so one of the unfortunate consequences of the California building regulations is we've made it so expensive and so frustrating to build new buildings that we keep old buildings around for longer than we should. And those buildings burn like nothing. But we will do more than that. we will have the most modern water distribution systems and backups on backups and building materials. But the reality is, even if all we did, what everyone else is doing in new communities, none of them has ever burned down because they are so far resilient. And the second component of it is one of the reasons for why this site is by far the best place in Northern California to build is it has the lowest exposure to natural disasters of any site within 200 miles.

2:25:12So the entire we own 68 ,000 acres at this point it's over 100 square miles there isn't a single earthquake fault line running through the whole site it's unheard of normally our engineers tell us you cannot find 3 ,000 acres down in LA like today yeah we're on the 10th floor we're on the 10th floor of this building it started shaking you could hear noises right before we went live it was very funny So that's one. And then just on the other two, the whole thing is surrounded by water or grass, which means you don't have the fire risk the same way because it's the trees that normally have all of the combustible load.

2:25:51And then the whole thing is above floodplain and sea level rise and so on. So it's a pretty cool place to build. Yeah, you're not at the wilderness interface, as they say. I have a question about Ezra Klein's abundance. It seems like a dramatic shift in potentially like the democratic platform if he really gets it to take hold. Very pro-growth now. He uses the analogy or the story of the California high-speed rail system as instructive. But his whole pitch is not necessarily burn the government down. We need to be ultra-libertarian, let anyone build. It's much more make the government great again.

2:26:30What is your read on the abundance agenda been? And just kind of give me your take as much as you've dug into it. I mean, he's been writing about it for a couple of years, and I've discussed it with Derek Thompson quite a bit, and I'm a huge fan. I think that the devil is in the details. But to me, whenever people on both sides of the political spectrum are kind of saying the same thing, there's a deep underlying truth at work. And there's some differences between what Marc Andreessen is saying with it's time to build and what Tyler Cowen is saying with kind of state capacity and with what Ezra is saying.

2:27:04But they all there's an underlying truth at work that they are all kind of getting at and I think the devil for Abundance is going to be in the details. Can they actually simplify the regulations enough? But I do think that California California desperately needs a big win in the built environment Everyone knows that we can build apps and phones and drones here But people have given up on our ability to build something.

2:27:33I that we proposed last week that went pretty viral. If you look at the comments, it's fascinating. 99 % of the comments that are negative are saying, this is an amazing idea, but California will never let you build it. It's literally, there's like 400 comments that are maybe 200 are negative. 195 of them are basically saying, great idea, California will never let you build it. And to your point, they quote high-speed rail. And so I think California desperately needs to show that we can build again and have an example for the abundance movement. This is what it looks like. And I can't think of something bigger and better that could do it than California forever, particularly because we put it in the name.

2:28:16I mean, if California wants to stop being a joke to the rest of the country on our ability to build, we need something that's as big as high-speed rail to reset the conversation. We're not going to reset the conversation by building a bunch of five-story apartment buildings in San Francisco. Nobody cares across America. We need a big, bold statement. And I think this could be it. If you had the ability to step into a particular government role with essentially like complete control for a day or some hypothetical, and your choice was a mayor, a governor, or the president, which one would you choose?

2:28:54Like where does the, what position or what level of abstraction over our government has the highest ability to act as a lever on housing policy. America tends to focus a lot on the presidency. But I've always wondered, is there an executive order that can fix housing policy? Is there a bill that we should be passing? Or is it more at the state level? Or even more at the local level? So that's part of the challenge. And I mean, Fukuyama called it vedocracy. And I think Ezra gets into it in the book. None of them alone can do it. I mean, if you look at what we need to build we need local permits we need state permits and we need federal permits and you could get all the local permits you want but unless you get the state permits you can't build it and conversely and so we've created this system where you need 25 people to say yes and if one of them says no you can't build and so I think the goal for people like Ezra and the abundance movement in some sense is going to be reducing the number of people who can say no I mean Imagine if you're running a company and to do anything, you needed 25 people to say yes.

2:30:00You would never ship anything. And none of them, and in many cases, and the CEO didn't have the power to override your head of sales or your head of product. You would never ship anything. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. One last question for me. You said that you're not building skyscrapers on day one. but as I think of how a city evolves, as it gets bigger and more dense, I actually love skyscrapers and I love the idea of a city getting more and more vertical as it gets more dense, as it's more economically successful. How do you think about setting up zoning or housing policy or even just expectations that you're moving into a quaint suburb or mixed use environment on day one?

2:30:48But if this goes really well, yeah, we're putting up the 40-story or even the 10-story building. Is that just a cultural thing? Or are there regulations that you want to instill from day one to allow the city to scale? Or is it more of like a copy-paste strategy? And you think we just need 10 of the same communities all over the state, and that's how we win? Yeah, I mean, it's a great question. I think for a long time, we'll be able to replicate it by just growing. I mean, we have 100 square miles. That's twice the size of San Francisco, five times the size of Manhattan. It's bigger than the city of Seattle or about the size of the city of Atlanta.

2:31:30And if you look at places like Barcelona or Paris or even Chicago, they get to really large populations just with six-story buildings. And there's a lot to say for that. But I think the other part of the question of how do you give people a voice in their neighborhood and what it looks like, I actually like the Texas model for this. So we tried to do this with zoning in California, but this is very unclear who controls, I mean, the city council controls the zoning, but like, when should it be changed? And that kind of creates all of these fights that we've been dealing with for the last 10 years of I moved into a single family neighborhood and I don't want any four story buildings here.

2:32:09I think the way to do it is to have a really permissive zoning code that goes all the way up to five stories from the beginning at least. And so, for example, in the city that we've proposed, every parcel can be built up to five stories from day one. But then what you do is you allow home builders and residents to control kind of their block or their neighborhood through covenants. And so that's a private contract that can exist on a few blocks that says when this was built, this was meant to be a lower density neighborhood with buildings going up to three stories. But that also means that it's clear who has the power to change it, which means 50 percent of the people or 60 percent of the people living there can vote and they can lift it.

2:32:50And that also means that when they do it, they might they might kind of lose something and that maybe there's a taller building that looks into their backyard. but maybe that property became more valuable because now you can upgrade it and you can build a second, another story or another two stories. And so I think that's a really good way of dealing with it at a neighborhood level that is just much more adaptable to change over time. Well, when I get there, I'm building down. I'm building four sub basements. I'm going to have a bat cave. I'm going down. Everyone else can be sitting to five stories up.

2:33:22I'm going to be five stories down. It's going to look like a tiny hut on the roof. How are you? I don't know. i don't know if we have more time i know we're five minutes over already but if we have time for one more question i'm curious of how much you've studied uh hoas and uh all the you know my hoa like runs on paper so if you want to pass anything it's like you need they'll like send you something everybody has to sign it of course nobody's like and then and then like apply your own postage and like get it back to them and it's a bunch of silly rules so like building an hoa from the ground up that just effectively, you know, is digital first, uses the internet, like seems pretty, seems pretty powerful, but I'm curious if you've, you've spent, uh, so many, I mean, it's just like a meme at this point.

2:34:09So many people like, you know, have, uh, a, a, I'd love to just hear best practices for HOA design. Like that's an interesting question. Yeah. And in the context of like an entire city. Yeah. Yeah. What's the biggest mistake and what's important to get right. So it's an area that we've done some work on, not a whole lot yet. I mean, that's kind of a little bit downstream. We have a couple of years to figure it out. The question that I've been obsessed about the most is why does everyone hate their HOA? Just at a very human level, like it always seems like people hate it. Ours is actually fine, but a lot of people hate it.

2:34:44I wonder whether there's something about the appointment of the HOA board that's part of the problem. I'll tell you my reason. Are you the president of the HOA? The president is in the home building business of my HOA. And so if you want to get your plans approved for some reason, if you use him, it goes super fast. So it's basically like, you know, mafia style. But this is what we like. It's one hand washing the other. No, we don't. We love when one hand washes the other. We don't like that. So that's my personal, you know. My take on, I mean, it goes to this. I think there's all kinds of issues with direct democracy that we've tried.

2:35:28But I do wonder whether it could work pretty well with tech at an HOA level, which is a relatively low stakes, like voter fraud and whatnot. Instead of having a three-person board, if everyone just had an app and then you hire basically a HOA manager to kind of execute, but you didn't get into the politics of who's on the board and which neighbor they like and so on. And it's like, hey, I want to rebuild my house. here are the plans can you guys vote on it you've got a month i wonder whether you could remove a lot of the really complicated social dynamics around it the other the other benefit that i think you're going to have is a lot of neighborhoods have like the challenge is if you're creating a new neighborhood in a new city from scratch you can get a bunch of like-minded people that are there for similar reasons at the same relative time which is very different than somebody that moved into a neighborhood in the 60s has been retired for 20 years and their set of priorities is very different than the young family who's coming in today and you know maybe paid 10 times more for their house or something like that and that those sort of like competing priorities of somebody who spends all day at home is very different than you know a young a young family who like you know prior is like super oriented around security or you know something else so I have one last question.

2:36:44Oh, sorry. Oh, no, I was going to say, I think there's actually two really deep truths in what you said. And the first one is I've heard from a lot of people that's actually what they miss the most about kind of moving into a new subdivision, which is often it was a lot of young families. And so you had everyone was kind of in the same stage of life and they had kids and it really created a sense of community. And that's harder to find. And then the other one is the other kind of exciting thing that came out of COVID was people realizing just how much better your life is if can live five minutes away from your friends or a minute away from your friends i mean we lived during covet we moved five doors down from my sister-in-law and we just had the best time it was it was incredible and um and people came back and they said hey i'm gonna try to move in close with my friends but it's really hard to do it in practice right you need to solve this issue of you all need to find a home in the same neighborhood and nobody wants to be the first one to jump and And you're driving up the prices in the neighborhood simultaneously.

2:37:40And then for all of the people who want to do it kind of in tech, you don't always necessarily want to move in like a new subdivision. But I think that's going to be a huge part of who moves into the new city. It's going to be a bunch of people who live right now, different parts of the Bay Area, and they all kind of like the design aesthetic and will be trying to build. And they can get houses on the same block. I mean, you could connect. My wife and her sisters have the plan of connecting the backyards. That's amazing. So I think there's going to be a lot of innovation in this kind of, not communal living, but kind of co-living or living nearby with your friends and family.

2:38:13That's going to be pretty cool. I love it. My last question, have you played City Skylines? No. You got to. It's a city builder. All right. You're doing in real life. He's doing the meme. He's doing it in real life. He's playing the game. But it's like the most popular modern version of SimCity. I'm sure a lot of fans will enjoy it. They can play along at home. Anyway, thank you so much for coming on the show. Yeah, this was great. I'm so excited. Thank you for, I can't wait for the, you know, for you to move into your place. It's going to be a 15-year overnight success. Exactly. Oh, 100%. Next time, next time you guys should come up and we'll get something on the side.

2:38:53Yeah, that'd be fantastic. All right. Good to see you. All right. Cheers. Have a great rest of your day. Let's move on to the timeline. You threw this in. We got to talk about this. China is currently exposing all the European luxury brands with TikTok videos, confirming that over 80 % of the luxury items being bought at ridiculous prices are made in China and only packaged in Europe. Interesting. You see this? Yeah, I got to basically put this in the truth zone. There are a lot of luxury goods brands that make products in China. Sure. But some of these videos coming out were basically like Birkin bags.

2:39:30Were like knockoffs? Which is like, yeah. And I do believe that this was like basically in a large part fake news. Going on and saying your Hermes bag is made in China is offensive to the generation of artisans that have been hand-stinching these bags in Europe for a long time. So the goal here is to get American consumers of luxury goods to falsely believe that their goods are made in China and therefore be anti-tariff or anti-trade war. I guess. Yeah, I think that's the strategy. I think that's generally the strategy. What's funny is they could just be like your iPhone is being, and that's true.

2:40:11And I also think the whole, I think the whole idea of, I don't think brands should optimize for transparency. Like nobody wants to find out they paid 20 times more for a product than what it costs to produce. Totally. But at the same time, I think people like when they're making a purchasing decision, like it's they're making it based on the fixed final cost of the item. Right. It's that's that's how they're analyzing like the sort of value exchange. It is interesting. I the one thing that China did recently is they basically made knockoffs and dupes legal in the country. they used to like crack down on it more um but you can actually go in china and go to entire malls where it looks like a prada store or it looks like a north face store except every single product in it is fake yeah um and like very good quality yeah that's the thing like they can nail the quality it's not going to be the same quality as some you know uh like a you know a dupe uh birkin bag won't be the same as as you know an authentic one but from 20 feet away it'll look like it.

2:41:19I don't know if that's true. I don't know that China can always copy things with enough quality. I was thinking about the disaster that could occur if you tried to buy a fake eight sleep and then it ruptured and you drowned to death because you bought a cheap eight sleep instead of just going to eight sleep.com slash TBP and getting a real sleep. They have a five-year warranty, 30 night risk-free trial, free returns, free shipping. How'd you do last night, John? Go off on the, I already checked. I'm off on the schedule again. I figured it out though. I have cracked the code and I'm going to be upping it.

2:41:53I was at a 90 last night, although it's dropping. Now it's an 89. I don't know what happened. It does. It updates. After you wake up. Okay. Well, I slept pretty well, 740, but my routine was at 73 % and I figured out the algorithm for the routine and I'm never making that mistake again. you have to, it takes the rolling three-day average of when you go to sleep and you have to be within that band, within 30 minutes of your rolling average. So you can be a night owl and still have put up big numbers. No, that's what it's all about. Yeah. But it's about consistency. You got to be consistent. Specifically 30 minutes within the rolling average.

2:42:30So now I'm dialing in my rolling average. I know what that time is. I'm going to be asleep before the It is funny that people take the time that they wake up very seriously, yet don't take the time that they go to sleep. Yeah, it's the bedtime alarm is more important than the wake up alarm, for sure. Yeah. Anyway. In my household, the alarm bells start going off 7 p.m. 7 p.m. It's bedtime. It's bedtime. Nobody sleeps harder than me. It's bedtime. This was interesting. Yeah. So I guess apparently some news came out that the White House released a corresponding memo indicating that the exemptions also extend to changes in small parcel shipping duties.

2:43:09Apple, Timu, Sheen, whatever. So anyways, this guy Dave is saying, wow. So the news over the weekend was, hey, for the really critical stuff, you know, we don't want to destroy Apple. It's one of the greatest American companies. We don't want to destroy NVIDIA. We're going to create exceptions for those. But apparently in this one corresponding memo, Timu and Sheen were also included in the exemptions. And they've been taking advantage of that de minimis exemption where they don't pay any tariff if they're under a certain weight. And Dave here says, woo, almost hurt Timu and Sheen's businesses, which is ridiculous.

2:43:45Obviously, like that's the easiest category to target because it's purely eroding quality American goods with this crazy loophole. and people have been expecting a de minimis exemption, you know, tariff or addressing that loophole for a long time. We talked to Ryan Peterson at Flexport about that. So it'd be very weird if that sticks around. That feels like an anomaly or something that might get flipped. So yeah, I think it's a short term.

2:44:18I think it's short, relatively short term. I mean, pretty much everything right now is short term. So they're planning to close it on May 2nd right now. everything everything is short-term right now nothing is nothing is written in stone it's still free game uh if you're trying to buy a couch for 15 yeah head over to timu yeah download the app yeah and uh i mean you can think about all the tariff stuff is like vibe law making you just embrace the exponentials let the vibes take over and forget the law even exists that's right that's that's the way you do it uh anyway kyle tibbitts over at wander uh is posting a photo of the Masters.

2:44:54They ran an ad in the Masters. I can't imagine a better audience to hit with a Wander commercial. And very cool. They're using a little news bar at the bottom. I like it. It's a nice design. I like it. Let you know as you're watching the ad, the.com, the logo, there's a surprise waiting for you at checkout. So head over to Wander and find your happy place. Find your happy place. Book of Wander with inspiring views, hotel-grade amenities, dreamy beds, It's top tier cleaning, 24 seven concierge services. We should put all of our ads and publish them as like an artist on Spotify. So people can just listen to them.

2:45:30Totally. I think the song has been - A resounding success. A success. Yes. It's gonna worm its way into someone's mind and in 10 years they're going to book a Wander and have the Find Your Happy Place jingle play in their name, play in their brain. I mean, if real success looks like you go to wander.com and it just automatically, I want to bring back like songs that play when you land on a website automatically. Yes, yes, yes. And those trailing mouse moves, like the mouse move, the trails and the colors and really HTML 1.0 vibes. Success looks like our faces being used as like, if you have a question, ask us.

2:46:10And it's like in the bottom right-hand corner. To me, success looks like going to getbezzles.com and getting a watch because your bezel concierge is available to help you source any watch on the planet. Seriously on a watch. Phenomenal transition. They're recommending the Rolex Day-Date Yellow Gold. That's the presidential. They got the GMT Master, the Batman. They got the Datejust Wimbledon. They got a Submariner on here. There's lots of great options on Bezel. Go check them out. Anyway, I like this post from Will Brown. Underrated poster putting up some great content. So he's quoting Paul who says, so Google Sheets now has an equals AI formula.

2:46:48You can process data that was impossible before in a spreadsheet. Gemini understands what's in the cells and returns tailor-made answer. And he quotes it with E equals MC squared plus AI. And do you get that reference, Jordy? I do not. It's a very funny reference. Someone posted an extremely cringe LinkedIn thread about how AI is so disruptive. You must now consider a new formula called E equals MC squared plus AI. And it was very viral. It was very funny. Missed it. But it is very silly that Google Sheets just has an equals AI formula because most of the other formulas are like specific mathematical formulas.

2:47:27Like AI can do a lot of things, just like math can do a lot of things. But typically, you know, you have a formula for a sum or an average or a VLOOKUP that does something specific, not just equals AI. So the bad naming continues across all AI products. But it's not all bad news because Francois Cholet, the creator of Arc AGI, former Google employee, just posted, Google quietly released a powerful recommender library optimized for jacks and TPUs based on Keras, which is the library that he created while at Google. It's called RecML. It has native support for Sparse Core, latest hardware for handling large distributed embeddings.

2:48:08And so what this means is that if you're just building the next TikTok clone and you want to do recommending of different content across a really large system, they have a pre-baked machine learning system. And these types of advancements are getting completely drowned out by everything in LLMs. But just a vanilla recommender system is extremely valuable. Yeah. This type of system would have probably cost you millions to create even five, six years ago? Chris Dixon, number one on the Midas list a few years ago, Coinbase seed or series A investor. One of his companies, Hunch, I believe is Hunch maybe.

2:48:48I think he sold it to PayPal or eBay. And the whole product that he built was a recommender system. And so this was called collaborative filtering. And it's what drives those. You may also be interested on Amazon. These are really, really critical systems for e-commerce sites, for Netflix? How does it predict what you want to watch next? This has then been baked into TikTok and Instagram Reels and the X algorithm. You remember when Netflix, everyone was like, oh, that's their alpha. They just know how to recommend. No, it's commoditized. But it's exciting that it's available just via Google and you can specifically use Sparse Core, which allows you to embed large distributed embeddings, which means when you define what makes a post on X recommendable, it's not just here's the text.

2:49:41It's here's the text, here's the user, is there video, what's in the video, what do the comments say, how long did people spend watching this video or how long did people spend reading this post, did they share it? There's so much other data that you could think of like metadata, but all of that gets embedded into basically a matrix of what is this about? And then that can be recommended based on other things. And that's why these algorithms are getting so uncanny. You watch one video about, I don't know, McLaren F1, and then pretty soon you're seeing 25 more, right? And it knows that, oh, you're interested in McLaren F1.

2:50:17You might also be interested in McLaren P1, P1 GTR, takes you down this different road. Pretty soon you're learning about Senna. And it takes you on this whole - of Doug DeMuro. Exactly, exactly. That's all built on recommender systems. And these recommender systems are not defined in a way that it needs to understand what a McLaren F1 is in a human readable form. Any new topic can instantly be baked into the recommender system through these embeddings. So very exciting. So a little shout out to Google for delivering some great software. We love to see it. I love big tech. I love big tech. Let's go to Jeff Lewis.

2:50:51He says, it's fair to call the US dollars decline yesterday. parabolic. More important than ever for investors to ask, what's growing parabolically amidst macro volatility? At Bedrock, our answer is clear, OpenAI. We've concentrated nine figures into OpenAI across multiple flagship funds since early 2021, and we've never been more bullish. Yesterday at TED, Sam Altman shared, 10 % of the world now uses our systems a lot. I love it. Crazy. It's great. Yeah. I mean, I think the number that was floating around was 500 million weekly active users, something like that. But that's really big. But pacing to potentially get to almost double that by end of year, which is crazy.

2:51:32Yeah. It is funny that I think they might still be eligible for using some of the open source libraries. I'm pretty sure they could technically still use Llama because Llama set the threshold at like 800 million users so that the other services couldn't use it or something like that. There's all these funny, like big tech wants to exclude each other, but they are quickly becoming definitionally big tech. And yeah, it's a consumer tech company. But we'll go more into ChatGPT and OpenAI and what's going on. Willem writes, ChatGPT memes like RoastMe, Create a CIA report, Ghibli filter, et cetera, feel very familiar.

2:52:06A throwback to BuzzFeed quizzes, Facebook personality tests, super intelligence or not. We just want to have fun and see ourselves in new ways. So I did one of those when they rolled out Memory. I prompted it with one of the prompts. that was floating around it was like tell me my blind spots yeah what did it say and i was very disappointed with the response it just felt like super general i did it astrology yeah style answer where like it said apply could apply to anyone basically for me for me it said it said i knew i knew my super cars really well i knew the holy trinity watches really well but i was really really lacking on equestrian and specifically dressage history like i don't know well because who the historical winners are.

2:52:50You leave the studio and you'll spend hours talking to ChatGPT just over audio just about dressage horse. Yes, yes, yes. And so it basically knows. I'm not really up to speed. You're not able to fake it. Which I think is - You can't fake it till you make it with dressage. I think it's a real blind spot. I think dressage is going to be huge. Yep. You heard it here first. We've talked about this. It's going to be huge. Dressage is coming to Los Angeles. It's in the Olympics. It's in the Olympics. And we will be there. We will have a box. We'll have a box. It'll be half VCs, half tech journalists.

2:53:21It's going to be the biggest crossover event in history. You heard it here first. Let's go back to Jeff Lewis. He says, memory transforms ChatGPT from merely an unprecedented consumer phenomenon into mission-critical infrastructure for individuals, families, enterprises, and society at large. I agree. I think it's very cool. I did see someone put this stuff in the truth zone. Well, let's go back to Will Brown. He says, ChatGPT memory is the most disappointed I've ever been in an OpenAI feature. It's unbelievably simple implementation and it doesn't even work. It's crazy that they released this as a pro feature.

2:53:54It is significantly worse than the vanilla clawed memory MCP tool. Sorry. So little bit of back and forth on how good memory is. I imagine it's less important that it's amazing on day one and more important that it just keeps growing and growing and growing because obviously we've seen scale is all you need. Scale is so important to these systems. even if it's not great today. Yes, it might not know your blind spots today, but let's talk about this in a decade. Like maybe it has even more. Are you really confiding in it? It's probably a wildly different experience if you're using it as your journal every day and documenting your entire life in there versus just using it as information retrieval, right?

2:54:33Yep. Will says he's pushing back his timelines. I'm pushing. Tyler Cowan disagrees. Well, yeah. I mean, is infinite memory a prerequisite to AGI or is it a separate thing? OpenAI has actually mapped out the step function, like the five steps in the layer to kind of their growth path. And Tane, who's been on the show, mapped it out. Level one was chatbots, real-time predictive responses. This is 2023, system one thinking. That's chat GPT. That's GPT-4. Then you had the reasoners. That's level two. Thinks for longer before responding. System 2 thinking, this is late 2024. You had 01, 03, 03 mini, ChatGPT, search, deep research, that type of stuff.

2:55:16Then agents, we get to the third level. This is where they are now in 2025. AI that can do work for you independently. That's tasks, operator, deep research, and now this code product that they're building. Innovators, that's level four. Develops innovations independently. That's something that we have not seen from any LLM or AI system, really. But we're very optimistic about it. There's been this big question. And hey, you have a system that is, it has all of the knowledge in the entire world. Why can't it put two things together and just notice something, right? That happens all the time. Like the reason we discover like penicillin or something is just because like there's a guy who knows about all these different things and realizes that, hey, these two things are correlated.

2:55:57Let's dig in there. And no one's been able to pull an innovation out of these things. And you even feel it with the text, the tell me a joke, the come up with an innovative business strategy. It'll just be like, oh, like you should start a coffee shop because coffee shops sell coffee. And this is what it's good at like stock business planning, not new ideas. And so that's where they want to get with level four. And then level five is organizations. They want them to think strategically and achieve organizational goals. We'll see how fast they get there. Maybe it's today. Two more things to cover before we call it for today.

2:56:32OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskiver, Safe, Super Intelligence. pulled together the round at 32 billion. You'd love to see it. Love to see it. A little size gong for Ilya. Size gong moment. And we had some other news. Larry Ellison has started following TVPN. Thank you, Larry. So welcome. Welcome to the show. To the show and the community. You are in many ways our technology brother, but also our technology father. Yes. So a true inspiration. I mean, founder mode for decades, one of the greatest tech companies has played such a role in so many tech transactions. He's in the conversation about TikTok.

2:57:12He was a financier behind Elon's purchase of Twitter. Fantastic taste in hotels. He has Sensei, which is phenomenal. Malibu Racket Club. Yes. Many esteemed institutions. Big into sailing. Yes. He's doing it right. Doing it right. To say the least. Today was a fun show. It was a great show. Very optimistic. I'm excited. uh i just keep coming back i'm excited to experience agi later this week yeah and i enjoyed the 30 minute segments i thought that was a great pace 20 minutes 30 minutes we just start doing the 15s they get a little bit too fast-paced choppy i like the way we handled it today so thank you for watching thank you for listening leave us five stars apple podcast spotify and we will see you tomorrow folks looking forward to it day have a great great Have a great Monday.

2:57:59Bye. Cheers.