2025 AFC East preview

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0:29Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's our AFC East preview today. Ton to dig into. Let's just get to it with me, Derek Klassen, and Dave Hellman right now.

0:47Robert Mays: It's the AFC East today on the Athletic Football Show. So this division's got a little bit of something for everybody. We got one of the best teams in the NFL, a true blue blood contender that we know is going to hopefully be around to the end. We have a Miami Dolphins team that we're going to try to figure out over the course of this show. I'm not sure how it's going to go. And then, Derek, we have two teams at the bottom of this division that are peddling a lot of hope this time of year with new staffs, a lot of new blood. And I think a reasonable amount of excitement about what these new regimes could look like for the Jets and Patriots.

1:18Dave Helman: I'm very excited to talk about both of those two teams. They are both teams that I think if we were doing more of like a July show that is like trying to paint the three year outfit look for these teams, I would be a lot more enthusiastic. I think trying to nail it down for 2025, I think is a much trickier exercise.

1:35Robert Mays: Dave, hopefully we're going to keep this not a feature length film today, so we're going to dig into it right now. We're trying to be better about this. Let's start with the Buffalo Bills. their offseason in 60 seconds. Extended Josh Allen to a monster deal that he took less than he probably could have. Greg Rousseau, four years, 80 million, 54 guaranteed. Christian Benford, four years, 69 million, $38 million guaranteed. Khalil Shakir, four years, 53 million, 30 guaranteed. Terrell Bernard, four years, 42 million, 24 guaranteed. Free agents, Josh Palmer, three years, 29 million. Joey Boso, one year, 12.6 million.

2:10Robert Mays: Michael Hoyt, three years, 21 million. He's suspended for the first six games of the year. Ty Johnson comes back on a small deal and then smaller deals in free agency for Larry Ogunjobi, Trey White, and Elijah Moore. Draft picks, Maxwell Harrison, the cornerback, 30th overall. He's been dealing with a knee injury in camp. TJ Sanders, defensive tackle in the second round. Edge rusher Landon Jackson from Arkansas in the third round. Defensive tackle, Dion Walker from Kentucky in the fourth round. They lost Mack Hollins in free agency and traded Kyir Elam. With each of these teams, we are talking about what we're most excited about heading into the season.

2:41Robert Mays: Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited about watching with the 2025 Buffalo Bills?

2:48Dave Helman: It's got to be the offense that has the MVP playing quarterback. I think that that's the easiest place to start. And it's not just that Josh Allen is an MVP caliber quarterback, right? Like, I think there's a chance that on any given Sunday, he is truly the best quarterback out there. But it's not just him like they he's obviously the, you know, running the show over there. But they also have like, I don't know what the third best offensive line, maybe in the league. I think in certain ways, like maybe the best. They have a very unique left tackle. They have an interior that is played very well.

3:16Dave Helman: Spencer Brown on the right side has been really good for them. They I mean, we spent like three years talking about like, oh, the Bills need to figure out how to learn how to run the ball. And then they finally did last year. And what we got was a Josh Allen MVP season where he doesn't even need a star receiver and he can go out and do all this stuff. And so to see what Josh Allen has become pre snap, to see what he's become as a decision maker, still being one of the nastiest runners in the NFL, on top of stuff, being able to get taken off his plate in terms of down and distance with how good the run game is.

3:44Dave Helman: It's just this offense is a fire breathing dragon, and they're probably going to be that again.

3:48Robert Mays: We all had a similar answer to this, Dave, and we were talking about before doing it before we were planning the show. Every single one of us was just excited about what this version of the Buffalo Bills has become on offense, including a quarterback like Derek alluded to that is kind of seeing the matrix right now, like him and the decision making and the lack of turnovers. He's always been somebody that didn't take a ton of sacks. The lack of negative plays combined with the high end stuff from Josh Allen very much feels like a happy learned how to put sort of moment for the Bills. And I think we realized the benefits of that last year.

4:17Derrik Klassen: He's seeing the matrix, but he's also still an American bison, right? Like he's still Josh Allen. He's the great white Buffalo guys. Like it's he's so fun to watch in addition to having unlocked that extra layer where he's really seeing the game purely. And if that wasn't all exciting enough, I'm at least optimistic that some pass catchers can take a step this year. Right. Like go down the list, whoever you want. But there's room for optimism that this can be a better pass catcher group. Derek, you mentioned it, dude. I blew my own mind when I look back at the Bills stats last year and realize that their second leading receiver had like 650 yards or something like that.

5:00Derrik Klassen: Like he cobbled it together. And so if the offense can take a step from where it was last year, which was amazing, it's just pure adrenaline. I can't wait to watch it.

5:09Robert Mays: We'll talk about the past countries here in a little bit. That's one of my answers to one of the categories that we're going to talk about. But in discussing this with people there, they actually love the fact that they don't have one of these guys. And I know that's something that you have to kind of rationalize when you've built the team this way. But this being an offense where the ball can get spit out to anybody at any time, they think it actually is an advantage for them. Because you're not having to worry about force feeding one person. There is a certain amount of flexibility in the way that you can approach individual game plans.

5:37Robert Mays: It's not on Josh Allen's mind. And having Steph Diggs is obviously a benefit. But this idea of if I haven't thrown this guy three or four balls in the first quarter, I have to start doing it. That was just completely ejected from the mindset last year. And I think they reaped some benefits from that. You still want really good pass catchers. And we'll talk about which of those guys could take a step. But in their minds, this is actually sort of a good thing. And when I look at the transition from the 2023 offense to the 2024 offense and why they've become this on that side of the ball, Derek mentioned a couple of the individual players, like the transition and the development from guys like Spencer Brown becoming like an excellent right tackle.

6:12Robert Mays: And you have that in Deion Dawkins. The line overall was a very good group. Ty Johnson is like a specifically important person for this team in the way they use him in passing situations. James Cook leveled up last year. There are personnel. things that are driving this, but I think some of the structural things are to me what are most impressive. They didn't do any jumbo in training camp last year. I was asking about this when I was there in August, they did none of it. And then over the course of the season, they ran 148 plays with six offensive linemen on the field. That was the most by far in the NFL.

6:43Robert Mays: They also led the league in yards per play on those place. They had 888 yards on six offensive linemen plays last year, no other team in the league had over 344. So that's like an in-season thing where you see them morphing into something else. I think over the course of last off season, as they were transitioned to this run heavy team in 2023, the bills are the second widest formations in football. They were in spread looks on almost 34 % of their plays, which was like the third highest rate in the league. Last year, they were in spread looks on 21 % of their plays, according to next gen, which was dead average.

7:20Robert Mays: This was just a different sort of offense led by an MVP quarterback. And I think we really started to see them reap the benefits of that because

7:28Dave Helman: now they can oscillate like that. That was always the contention of why when they couldn't run the ball is like, well, they can never really do any of this stuff now that they can. And Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator is still there and they're going to have continuity to build on this stuff. So it's a incredibly exciting all around for each of these teams.

7:43Robert Mays: We're going to talk about the swing points in their season. Where could this year pivot for all of these clubs? Dave, let's start with you. What is your swing point for the 2025 Buffalo Bills? This is a sicko answer, and I'm really excited about it.

7:57Derrik Klassen: Okay, but important context is that I'm not being a sicko for sicko's sake. You're really not. I think this is the type of stuff I think you have to consider when you're talking about what we all view as a slam dunk Super Bowl contender. Like, barring a catastrophe, the Bills are going to be playing late into January. The goal is to go further. So my swing point is the special teams and whether they will improve with a change at special teams coordinator. They fired Matthew Smiley after the playoffs. They replaced him with Chris Tabor. Chris Tabor sat out of the NFL last year. He was with Carolina and just he just took a year off, which is very interesting because, hey, guess who's a sicko?

8:37Derrik Klassen: Every special teams coordinator in the NFL. So to have a year to sit and watch and do sicko shit, like study the new kickoff and how it works and what advantages might be gained. That's the type of stuff that they do. So I'm really intrigued to see what the bill's special teams look like. It's not sexy. It's not going to be exciting. 15 out of the 17 Sundays of the year, but we know this shit matters, man. I mean, they were bottom five in net punting last year. They had bottom five opposing starting field positions. So opponents were starting drives against the bills on their own 31, which again was a bottom five number in the league.

9:17Derrik Klassen: Much more famously, they had a punt blocked by the Rams in a game that they lost a shootout that they lost by a touchdown. Who knows what, what sort of difference that makes? And I don't think it ultimately affected anything, but they famously had nine men on their return team in that Rams game at the end of the game. And it's just like, what are we doing? And that stuff like that is why you wind up making a switch at a coordinator position after a trip to the AFC championship game. So I'm curious to see how well Chris Tabor shores all of that stuff up. And when you're talking about a team that could win 13 or 14 games, that stuff matters to me.

9:55Derrik Klassen: And I guess I'll, I'll throw in as well. I don't think I'm ready to say that Tyler Bass is a liability, but five misses last year with all of them coming from 49 and in. So like we're not talking about a ton of like really difficult kicks. He did have a miss in the snow game, I believe against San Francisco, but 49 and in is, is easy peasy by modern NFL standards. So maybe not a liability, but I have a close eye on Tyler Bass. And for all of those reasons, I'm curious about the bills and special teams.

10:27Robert Mays: I, what I love about having three people on the show is that eventually every once in a while, we're just going to have things inserted into the conversation that I never would have gotten to in a million years. And Chris Tabor as the special teams coordinator is one of those things. And why this is important is when you were a team that's trying to win a Superbowl, every little edge on every single margin matters. And this team finished 28th in special teams DVOA last year. And Bill's fans know that it's going to be the slimmest of things that eventually get this thing over the top. And special teams are absolutely a part of that, even though we almost never talk about it on this show, probably as a bit at this point.

11:05Derrik Klassen: If I brought this to the table for like 30 of the 32 teams in the league, you should rightly tell me to screw off. But I think this is a team where it fits.

11:16Robert Mays: For me, it's what this defensive line turns into. That is my swing point for the 2025 Buffalo Bills. They threw an astonishing amount of resources at this group this year. No huge, like big money additions. They didn't use a first round pick on it, but you think about the number of bodies that are now involved in this pass rush rotation this year that weren't last year, Joey Bosa, Michael Hoyt, TJ Sanders, their second round pick Landon Jackson, their third round pick Larry Ogunjobi, somebody they signed in free agency, Dion Walker, who they drafted in the fourth round. We have six new guys who could potentially be a part of this rotation this year.

11:53Robert Mays: And I don't blame them after the way that last year went. Their pressure numbers were fine last year. Like they were average when bringing four. They actually had the second highest pressure rate in the league per next gen when bringing five. But when you watch them at the end of last season, you could feel that they were not affecting the quarterback in the way that they wanted to. And so the group that they brought in this year, Derek, we've got a ton of different players stylistically, and that's not an accident. You know, Joey Bosa can win in a variety of ways when he's healthy. Landon Jackson is a long, straight down the chest sort of rusher.

12:27Robert Mays: Dion Walker is a six foot eight mountain of a man that they're really excited about. Like they thought he was much more talented than a fourth round pick coming out of Kentucky. He's somebody that struggled his final year at Kentucky with a little bit of a back injury, but really flashed in 2023. And so they're really hoping that they can go six or seven deep here. And when we get to January, they've got the horses up front to affect the game in ways they just couldn't by the end of last season.

12:53Dave Helman: It really is like a bunch of different guys with different body types and skill sets like Joey Bosa is your always have had really good hands. And when he's at his best can really win around the edge in a way that you want. And I think this team in particular needs Landon among the rookies. Landon Jackson is the one I'm the most excited about. I think he has some stuff to him. He's stiff, like he's not going to be like Joey Bosa where he can turn the turn the corner. But he's long. He's strong. he's a really good run defender um already and he like even in college he showed it and then even in the preseason he's shown some of it um dion walker has shown some of that as as more of a nose tackle tj sanders is like you know he's a little bit on the smaller end for a defensive tackle but he's got some quickness to him that i think is really valuable so i think to me the one i'm most excited about is landon jackson but if walker hits i think that helps them piece together some of their run game stuff because they are not a team that wants to throw some of these you know blitzes and early down blitz.

13:44Dave Helman: They want to just be able to defend with their normal box. Well, if Walker can play well, then that really helps them do that.

13:49Robert Mays: I think it's a great point because there's not a lot of beef on this line. That's the one thing when you're looking at all the bodies that they've added, they don't really have a lot of space eating players. That's never the way that they have built their front. If Walker can be more of a contributor in year one than a typical fourth round pick would be, you have a massive person that you can drop at that one technique next to at Oliver. And then hopefully that's going to help you hold up a little bit. But why and one reason, one area where this team gets by, even though they don't really have those bigger bodies and think about even their second and third level, they don't have a lot of thumpers in this group.

14:22Robert Mays: But one thing that stands out when you watch this team is that they are phenomenal on the edge when defending the run. Greg Russo is so long and you drop in somebody like Landon Jackson. This team was seventh in the NFL in regular season rush success rate on defense last year per next gen. that's not it's kind of counterintuitive when you think about their body types but i think some of the work that those guys do on the edge is one of the reasons they hold up a little bit better against the run than you might think given how they're constructed i still in the back of my mind i'm a tiny bit worried about when you get to the best teams in the league trying to run downhill against you in january can you hold up the ravens had a 60 rushing success rate in that game last year in the divisional round but over the course of the regular season they have shown a consistent ability, despite how they're built to be pretty solid and run defense.

15:11Derrik Klassen: I don't want to put too much hype on a third round pick, but Landon Jackson's a really fun player.

15:16Robert Mays: I'm glad we, I'm glad we spotlighted him. I just, he's a unique, he has a unique skillset and you can deploy him in a very specific way. And I think that's the goal with this is that if we have five, six guys that do something well, even if it's a little bit limited, collectively, we have a group that we can feel good about. And I think that's how they've built this thing for each of these teams. We're going to talk about what is keeping us up at night about their chances in 2025. Derek, why don't you get us going? What is keeping you up at night about this year's Buffalo bills?

15:47Dave Helman: The secondary at large, but like primary, well, I was going to say primarily cornerback too, but I think it is a little bit of everything. Like Dane Jackson has been fine for them at times. You know, he's been on and off the roster for them. This was like

15:58Robert Mays: three years ago that Dane Jackson was fine for them. You could be worried about the second

16:01Dave Helman: cornerback spot for the bills it's okay their other corner is a guy who was previously good for them and has not been for like three years in Tredavious White so like they they're they're going back to a lot of old friends that I'm not sure are really going to solve the cornerback two problem for them and then at safety they're running back a lot of the same guys it's all of the same guys that they had last year with some trio of Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin and Cole Bishop and I think you know we talked about on our x-factor show it would be really nice if Cole Bishop stepped up and was a really good player for them and I think he's going to be starting for them in a way that he wasn't last year.

16:32Dave Helman: He is. He's definitively the second safety for them. Right. I'm not confident that he's going to be that much of an upgrade yet. And that's not to say he can't, but it's just like, I think until I see it, it's going to be a long road. So this entire secondary, like I trust Benford to be a really good player. I really trust Taron Johnson. The other three spots, I'm a little iffy. Yeah.

16:54Derrik Klassen: I mean, I don't think anybody at this point is trying to bring back Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. I think we're comfortable with that ship having sailed. But good safety play has made such a difference for this team over the course of its run. And yeah, you have to be worried about that. The cornerback spot for sure. But I think probably because he was a pretty marquee pick, you know, like a second round pick in Cole Bishop. My eyes go to him because I have high expectations for him. He came out of Utah, too, which low-key has a really good reputation for developing defensive backs. So I got Jalen Johnson, Jalen Johnson, Julian Blackman in I think he's with the Saints now, but he's had a nice career.

17:37Derrik Klassen: Like I have high hopes for what this guy can be. And safety play in Buffalo has been such a big part of their success. So it's something that I definitely worry about. And while I was prepping for this, I again blew my own mind. You guys realize and maybe you do. If you if I'm lacking on this, that's on me. the bills are the only team in the league since 2020 that's been top five in takeaways all of those years so i was going to mention this they lead the entire nfl in takeaways over that stretch of time since 2020 they're better at it than everybody else they're better than pittsburgh they're better than dallas and for the most part they're substantially better like they take the ball away a lot and that's despite not really having that all pro ball hawk eight interceptions type of player.

18:27Derrik Klassen: They just do it with guys getting their hands on the football. So if somebody like a Cole Bishop or a Maxwell Hairston or whoever, if they're not holding up their end of the bargain on that, that, that could make a difference for a defense that's gotten used to doing this every

18:41Robert Mays: year. So I was going to mention this when I was talking about, when I was going to talk about how, what I'm watching for the first month of the season, I have my doubts about them being able to take the ball away at the same rate again this year, compared to what they did last year. And especially when you combine it with what happened on offense, this team had a plus 24 turnover margin last year. It's eight better than any other team in football. The Steelers were second at plus 16. That's not going to happen again. Like that's just not going to happen. They're probably not going to create as many turnovers on defense and they're probably going to turn the ball over more on offense.

19:13Robert Mays: So that's something to keep in mind. And on the defensive side, specifically this team was 24th in defensive success rate last year. They relied on turnovers.

19:23Dave Helman: They were bad for a long time. If they're not actually bad,

19:27Robert Mays: if they're not turning the ball over at the same rate this year and down to down, we're getting similar sort of results from the defense. What does that mean when we get into the back half of the season? That's not keeping me up at night. That was what I was watching over the first half of the year. But I think it's absolutely worth talking about. Like we just think of the bills as this good defense, like, Oh, there'll be somewhere between the seventh and 12th best defense in the league. That was just not the case last year. And they really survived on those turnovers. If that comes back to earth a little bit and we still have these questions about the secondary and there's just overall personnel wise, they don't have that many star level players and you're trying to win a Super Bowl.

20:04Robert Mays: What does that ultimately mean?

20:07Dave Helman: I'm kind of done. I'm not done with that defense because they could be fine, but like I'm a little bit done talking about them until I can see them get punched in the mouth and get up off the mat. Like we've just never seen it even at their best. And I'm still a little bit worried about that.

20:19Robert Mays: And I just think that this defense, there are elements of it that are really dynamic. and almost chameleon-like on the back end. They disguise on the back end as well as any team in the league last year. Only the Rams and the Vikings per next gen played more two high coverages out of single high pre-snap alignments than the Bills did last year. It's very amorphous and they make it hard on the quarterback. But there are other elements of this defense that are a little bit predictable and a little bit stale. Only the Niners played more four-man fronts last year and the Bills were 24th in the league in success rate when playing man coverage.

20:47Robert Mays: Just think about when they tried to do it last year against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Benford being hurt was a huge part of that, but Kair Elam or a similar analogous player to Kair Elam is probably going to be that second quarterback this year. Like the whole hope was that Maxwell Harrison would be that guy. And unfortunately you talk about Cole Bishop, the same thing happened to Maxwell Harrison that happened to Cole Bishop last year. He gets banged up early in camp. And even if he can get healthy early in the season, this is a defense because the back half is so complex that it's going to be really hard for him to come in and hit the ground running.

21:18Robert Mays: So there's a chance we're relying on Trey White at this stage of his career or Dane Jackson, because they're probably safer bets. And I just worry about the overall ceiling of this defense. If we have enough component pieces where that's the conversation.

21:32Derrik Klassen: I think that's fair. I'd be remiss if I didn't say this though. And I think this all makes sense in the context of, we know where the bills are trying to go, but one thing I think you can count on for the bills is at least for the last two or so years, there's been a stretch where they were beat to shit. The defense looked hopeless and you're sitting there saying like, how are they going to get out of this? And by God, don't they slap it together with duct tape and get there.

21:59Robert Mays: And that doesn't slap it together against the dolphins in week 15. They don't slap it together against the chiefs in the AFC championship. I don't care. I don't care about November. You're totally right. November doesn't matter.

22:08Derrik Klassen: You're totally right. But I mean, you gotta, you gotta be in that game in January before we can worry about how good you are at dealing with the chiefs. That's all.

22:16Robert Mays: So I kind of flipped my, what is keeping me up at night and when I'm watching in the first month of the season. So I'm just going to move these two, what I'm watching in the first month of the season with the Buffalo bills is what steps the young pass catchers take, right? I mean, how does this group come together? We talked about it a little bit at the beginning where they're fine with the fact that they don't really have that guy that they can rely on, but this group needs to be more than the sum of its parts. And I do think that some of these really highly picked players that have to become difference makers for them, does that happen?

22:47Robert Mays: In their minds, Dalton Schultz and Keon Coleman were both trending in a really positive direction last year before they got hurt. Keon Coleman had his two best games of the season against the Titans and the Seahawks, and then he gets banged up and he never really got back on track. Dalton Kade was having a pretty nice year. He gets banged up, never really gets back on track. So their hope is if those guys can stay healthy, we will see better versions of them this year. And then you drop Josh Palmer into the mix here. And even if he's not a star, his skill set, Derek, specifically where he can separate a little bit against man coverage, that is the one guy on the perimeter that they haven't really had as part of this equation.

23:25Robert Mays: so collectively even if we have no stars here can the young guys take a small step and can Josh Palmer be of enough of a differentiator where we feel really good about this group as a whole by

23:37Dave Helman: the time we get to the end of the season yeah and like the nice part about it is like if they really don't it's still probably a top six offense right like you have Josh Allen the offensive line they're probably still going to be really good but I do think again this is a team where you're talking about like what are the margins when we get to the middle and end of January and it's like exactly we kind of need keon coleman to be the red zone threat that we thought he was going to be when we drafted and we need him to be our kind of third down in my mind he's a little bit of like what juan jenny like he should be a little bit of what juan jennings is for the niners like that style

24:09Robert Mays: of player and if it's actually a good comp somebody that doesn't need to separate to necessarily be

24:13Dave Helman: effective and i think he's got a little more pop to him with the ball like in the ideal case but like similar style of player where like that's what you're getting out of him and then palmer is just your bigger downfield X, which they have had in Matt Collins in the past and Gabe Davis and stuff. But like Palmer is a little bit more consistent, I think, than those guys. But he also still brings a lot of the blocking and stuff that you got from those guys. So if we can just get five to 10 percent better play out of a guy like Palmer than we got from guys previously in that role, and then Coleman can just give you a little bit more of those pop plays, those one on one wins that you want, then I think this offense can pretty easily, you know, we say they're going to turn the ball over a little bit more.

24:51Dave Helman: And that is probably true just based on how well they didn't last year. But if they can also get a few more explosives by virtue of these two receivers stepping up and hopefully Kincaid being a little bit healthier, that probably makes everything come out in the wash.

25:03Robert Mays: And Derek, I know you were paying attention to what steps the young players would take over the first month or so of the season. We talked about the pass catchers, talked about Cole Bishop, the other guy that I know they're very excited about and the steps that he's taken. And they're hoping that we can see a similar sort of jump in year three for him that we saw for Spencer Brown is Osiris Torrance. He has had a very nice training camp and he's somebody that's like, all right, now it's his time to be the guy when we get to week 11. And we're talking about these bills, offensive linemen that are really flashing.

25:32Robert Mays: Is he the guy that's getting the Spencer Brown treatment in 2025 in their minds? That is on the table.

25:39Dave Helman: That would go a very long way for them because I envisioned him a little bit of the same way that we got from like the best of Makai Beck. last year where it's like, OK, in pass pro, he can be a little bit slow and he's going to reach on stuff sometimes. But in the run game, if if if he can get hands on you, he's moving you. And especially with some of the double teams that he's putting together with Brown, if he can clean up a little bit, some of that stuff with being a little bit too slow to landmarks or being a little bit slow in pass protection and he becomes a little bit more stable there and you get all the pop.

26:05Dave Helman: I mean, he's going to become one of the best guards in the league.

26:08Robert Mays: Hopefully I was watching him in one on ones. And obviously, you know, that that's a crapshoot. you're there for one day of training camp, but just how confident he was in some of the hand usage stuff and just the nuances of his game that I think have really started to develop and sharpen. I was very impressed with what I saw when I was there. And that's the story that they've been telling all throughout camp for each of these teams, Dave, we're talking about what a successful season looks like. What is a successful season for the 2025 bills? You don't need me to say, say it, but I will.

26:37Derrik Klassen: I mean, the, the, the bean McDermott Allen bills will be measured by their ability to reach the Super Bowl and preferably win it, but you at least got to get there. We all know that. My question for y 'all, what significance does beating the Chiefs play in that? Like, obviously, Bills fans are going to take a championship no matter how they get it, but do you feel like, like, doesn't it have to involve a win over the Chiefs finally, just for poetic justice? Like, Manning finally beat Brady in 06 when the Colts won that Super Bowl like you kind of got to slay the dragon in my opinion like take it however you can get it but I just I feel like a Bill's Super Bowl run needs to involve that win the only reason I say

27:22Dave Helman: no is that he will inevitably have to go through Burrow or Jackson otherwise like if he doesn't have to go through my homes and like that to me is good enough that I'm like I'm not really getting

27:31Robert Mays: tripped up over it I don't think anyone will care in Buffalo I think that is the most beautiful way that it can play out. Like if they don't end up getting the Chiefs as part of that playoff run,

27:41Derrik Klassen: I think part of me would be a little bit upset. Put it this way, Bills fans will be ecstatic no matter what, but it will be, it would just be seismic if they finally pulled it off while defeating the Chiefs. I think it would put it on another level than just any Super Bowl.

28:00Robert Mays: I don't want to be too fatalistic here or too alarmist when it comes to the construction of this team, because I think they showed us last year that even if they're dealing with dead money, even if it looks like they might be taking a small step back, when you have Josh Allen, you're always going to be in the mix. But if you look at their two-year outlook here financially, they're already$9 million over next year's cap. They can save some money if they move on from Dawson Knox, but if they do that, then they lose their wide tight end that allows them to do some of the stuff that they do in the run game.

28:29Robert Mays: So you're chipping away at that. David Edwards and Connor McGovern, their left guard and center respectively, are free agents after this year. They're hoping, I think, that they can bring back one of them, but I think affording both of them is going to be a little bit tough. And so again, you're just starting to slowly chip away at the elements that have made you into the offense that you are. So this year feels like a ripe year as that offensive line is there. They've stayed healthy over the last couple of years. This is the type of group where, all right, we feel good about the push we can make and that's it.

29:01Robert Mays: If they don't win the Super Bowl or at least get to the Super Bowl, I think that everyone in Western New York is going to be a little bit sad about how this season went. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back with the Miami Dolphins.

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33:37Robert Mays: It's our Miami Dolphins preview. They're offseason in 60 seconds. Extended Zach Seeler, three years,$64 million,$43 guaranteed. Acquired Minka Fitzpatrick in trading for Jalen Ramsey. Got Darren Waller to come out of retirement. Signed James Daniels, three years,$24 million. $11 million guaranteed to play guard for them. Smaller deals for Tyrell Dotson, who they retained. Zach Wilson, forgot that happened. Nick Westbrook-Akina and Ife Mello-Fonwu. Lost Javon Holland and Calais Campbell in free agency. They drafted Kenneth Grant, 13th overall, and guard Jonas Savanea in the second round, 37th overall after trading up for him.

34:13Robert Mays: Dave, what are you most excited about watching with the 2025 Miami dolphins?

34:19Derrik Klassen: I think on this show and in the NFL sphere in general, the dolphins are a little bit of a punching bag right now. And we're going to get into a lot of the reasons why I want to be clear about this.

34:30Robert Mays: I do not necessarily think they're bad. I just don't know what to make of them. And I just am confused by them. That's where I sit with this.

34:38Derrik Klassen: Even if we don't think they're bad. I think a lot of people are just in general, like what the hell's going on with the dolphins? There's bewilderment, even if there's some hope for elements of this team, but milder

34:49Dave Helman: is a generous term for me, but yes.

34:52Derrik Klassen: So if you're, if you're a dolphins fan, even if you're a rational dolphins fan, you're probably a little annoyed at hearing that nobody thinks your team is capable of doing anything. So I will just throw this olive branch out there. Cause we're, we got plenty of critical stuff to say, but if two is healthy and the majority of the past catchers are healthy, like if one of the two of Tyreek or Waddle is healthy, preferably both the running backs, I'm so glad you mentioned Nick Westbrook, Akine, Robert. I feel like it's flying under the radar that the deep ball God is in Miami now. So with all of that there, if they're all available, like the dolphins will be entertaining.

35:33Derrik Klassen: Like they will be able to score points. they will be a fun team and that's exciting like i i like to watch touchdowns and i think they'll

35:40Robert Mays: score plenty of them when tua has been healthy since 2022 and mike mcdaniel got there this team has averaged 6.3 yards per play they have a 46.2 success rate on offense and they've averaged 0.09 epa per play for context the yards per play and success rate would rank first in the nfl over that stretch and they would be second in EPA per play. When he has been healthy, this has been one of the best offensive, one of the best offenses in the league, any metric that you want to look at over the course of the regular season. And that's kind of what I was excited about is I want to watch the next Mike McDaniel Houdini act that he's going to pull like every single off season.

36:22Robert Mays: When you think about them, not really changing who they are and kind of frustratingly doubling down on this, It feels like him stringing himself up in a straitjacket and having to get out of it. It's his own doing. Like they're doing this to themselves, but he's still able to consistently wiggle his way out. Last year, the ways that they shifted that offense because of how teams were playing against them, they faced more cloud coverages last season per next gen than any team in football. It was 35 and a half percent of dropbacks. No other team in the league was above 30 percent. The difference between them and the Vikings at number two was bigger than the difference between the Vikings and the Jags who finished 17th.

37:01Robert Mays: And so because of this, because of the environment they know they're having to work in, they were dead last in the NFL in air yards per attempt. They were one of two teams with negative air yards to the sticks on third down to a finish second in the NFL and drop back success rate last year. like their ability to consistently find these little crevices to continue being good on offense, despite their limitations. We noticed the limitations by the end of the year, but the process of working around them, Derek, I'm consistently impressed by.

37:32Dave Helman: They are the best team in the league. I think at getting to the wildcard graphic, I think that's the best way that I can frame this team. Does anything after that matter for them? I'm not really convinced, but in terms of like being able to get there, they are probably the best team in the league I'm really excited for it because it's it's never the same thing obviously like at first it was a lot of the cheat motion stuff was kind of their big thing and then like kind of last year became or even the year before it became a lot of like the different ball handling stuff that they were doing they'd started to go to more pistol at certain points because they realized we couldn't really get under center one with our quarterback I don't think he loves that but then also just the offensive line I think with the way that the run game was going to work they didn't want to get under center and be that way so like they've just always found these different little ways to shift.

38:15Dave Helman: I mean, even last year, obviously, John Smith isn't on the roster now, but part of why they went to such a low ADOT type of offense was they realized like, OK, with the way defenses are playing us, the best way to get to a ball to a decent skill player is to throw to John Smith immediately. And they did a really good job of pivoting to that. So again, Mike McDaniel does not just Mike McDaniel, but like Chris Greer and the whole thing, they kind of back themselves into a corner with the way that the roster is constructed. But he always finds some way to make it work and he's probably going to do it again.

38:42Robert Mays: And I'm excited about seeing what that looks like on offense, even if it does bump up against some limitations. For me, what I'm excited about is this defensive front. If everybody is healthy, and I know that's a massive caveat because of how many games Jalen Phillips and Nick and Bradley Chubb have missed over the last few years. But with all those guys on the field, I think this could be an incredibly fun unit. Chop Robinson already looks like a star, like period on a rate basis last year per PFF, here are the players that were more disruptive as pass rushers than shop Robinson, Aiden Hutchinson, miles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Trey Hendrickson, Nick Bosa.

39:21That's it.

39:22Robert Mays: It's the end of the list. And he had 350 pass rush snaps last year. This is not like a part-time player who was really productive despite a lack of volume. He was on the field a lot and he was really good. Derek, for me, it's like, I watch him and he's not a huge, He's not huge, but he's not. His lower half is so strong and he plays with so much power for somebody that's not overwhelming in size. And that's just not what I anticipated from him after watching him at Penn State. But he will play right through a guy's chest. And when you watch all the stunts that they use and just how creative Anthony Weaver's pressure packages are, he's a real weapon.

39:58Robert Mays: And so when you combine that with Phillips, Chubb, Kenneth Grant, which I did not love Kenneth Grant as much as some of the other interior players in this class, but I can understand the appeal of him. And he had some really nice flashes in the preseason so far. And Zach Seeler is still here. Like there are a lot of guys to potentially work with for a defensive coordinator that I think deploys those pressure looks in a way that is as dynamic as anybody in the league right now. this is gonna sound dumb but the reason I think chop is really good is he's the exact type of

40:30Dave Helman: player I usually don't gravitate towards where he's a little bit smaller all he wants to do is win around the arc and he can run through you if he needs to but he is mostly a guy who's gonna try to get around the arc but like he's awesome you watch him and he is just consistently finding a way to the quarterback like he's a player that I've really come to enjoy so I think if he can continue to be like a really explosive presence for them around the edge that does a lot because he's different than the other guys that they have, right? Like Jalen Phillips, I think is at his best, a little more of like a do it all.

40:56Dave Helman: Like he's I think he's a really good athlete, but he can go through you. He has inside moves. He has outside moves. Bradley Chubb is obviously a little bit bigger and kind of definitely wants to play through guys. Matthew Judon, if you know, whatever we're going to get from him is also that style of player similar to Bradley Chubb. So the fact that Chop Robinson is very clearly their their race car type of pass rusher, I think if he can kick it up a notch, I'm extremely excited.

41:18Derrik Klassen: this could be one of the very best pass rushes in the nfl and no doubt it definitely is flying under the radar like i and i'm not trying to sell you on the dolphins as a super bowl contender but it's not being talked about by very many people i don't think it's hard not to treat this group

41:38Robert Mays: as anything more than theoretical because those guys have just struggled to stay on the field like we didn't see bradley chubb play football last year and in theory he should be healthy because he didn't play at all last year, but Jalen Phillips is again coming off of a torn ACL. Like there's always something happening with this group. And so I'm excited about what it looks like in the best possible circumstances. It's just hard for me to believe in those circumstances considering how the last couple of years have gone. Let's get to the swing points for the 2025 Miami dolphins. Derek, where in your mind does this dolphin season potentially pivot?

42:10Dave Helman: Well, we talked a little bit already about like, what is the new pitch for McDaniel? What is he going to do? I think a lot of that, when you look at the roster, is going to have to boil down to what do we get from these two new guards? Because I think last year, the biggest issue was the offense was they couldn't, the interior especially, couldn't like move people and they couldn't run the way that they wanted to. There was no diversity, no power. So what they did was they went inside James Daniels, who at his best can move people and drafted Jonas Avena, who is a little bit of a bigger guard.

42:38Dave Helman: And they really spent draft capital to make sure that what felt like to them the last like in that tier of guard what they really needed to go get. So they have really made a concerted effort to really change not just the quality of player guard, but the identity of what they have a guard. And that to me is like if it goes well and James Daniel is healthy and we see some of the best of him and Savanella has at least like an average rookie year. Those two would be massive upgrades from what we got out of that unit last year.

43:07Robert Mays: Dave, I can already tell based on what we saw in the preseason that you're you're continuing frustration with what this team looks like in short yardage is already getting to you.

43:16Derrik Klassen: I keep saying that I'm trying not to be influenced by preseason and training camp. And maybe I'm just doing a bad job. But you watch them play the Bears and they made it a point to play the ones after the joint practice. And they just got bullied on the goal line. Just, and they even, they made it a point to like, they were like, we're going to run three times from the two yard line and we're going to get in that end zone. And the bears were like, no, the hell you're not with their second string. And that is so demoralizing. And then it happened again. They joint practice against the lions and it sounded like a massacre at this training camp.

43:55Derrik Klassen: The way lions beat reporters were talking about, they were like the dolphins are going to have to be taken out of here in ambulances. So we already know it was bad. They were dead last in the league in red zone success rate. They, they were 30 % in red zone success rate, which is 16 % below league average. They were so bad. And I don't really, I know everything Derek just laid out, but that is such a precipitous drop from how good they were in 2022 and 2023. It's like, they just forgot elementary stuff. I don't know. Or maybe bulk and power really does matter that much when you get down there close to the goal line.

44:36Derrik Klassen: But it is it was it's an untenable drop when you look at last year's numbers. I mean, they were bottom three in the league and everything. They scored 19 red zone touchdowns. I mean, we got to get these numbers up if I'm expected to take them seriously. It's it's crazy.

44:52Dave Helman: I think it matters a lot specifically for them because they don't have a quarterback who runs. They don't have backs who are like particularly powerful. and they don't have a ball winner. So how the hell else are you supposed to score in the red zone but run through people? But they couldn't do that either. So that's why I think it's like this really, really has to work.

45:10Robert Mays: Let's throw out some numbers about the 2024 Miami Dolphins run game. It's essentially the exact inverse of the passing game. And you'll see why here in a second. They were stuffed on 26.3 % of their runs per next gen. No other team in the league was above 21%. The gap between them and the Texans at 31 was bigger than the gap between the Texans and the Niners who were 13th. Wow. They were in their own zip code when it comes to this stuff. They also weren't explosive. They were below average in explosive run rate last year. And Derek, why I was losing my mind when you were talking about them consistently getting pushed back in the run game.

45:43Robert Mays: When you watch the run game, Mike McDaniel was generally considered one of the best run game designers in professional football. Like the unique wrinkles that they have when they're trying to run the ball are unlike almost any other team in the league. All of this misdirection, all of the ball handling, tight end slicing across the formation. None of that shit matters if you're getting pushed back a yard into the backfield on almost every single play. And that's what it looked like last year. They could not move people. They could not displace people. And it was just a non-starter for the run game overall.

46:12Robert Mays: And so now you have these two bigger, more physical guards that hopefully you're going to be able to displace more people in the run game. And let's throw Patrick Paul into the mix here too. He's coming in as the left tackle. And while he is a little bit raw when it comes to pass protection, and I do think that's worth thinking about, Him and Savanella in that Bears game, they had a double team where they were just moving that three technique off the ball. And so that to me is the best case scenarios with Paul, Savanella, James Daniels. You can just have a little bit more downhill physicality.

46:41Robert Mays: The one thing, two things that give me pause with this. One, Devani H. Chan's already hurt. He's already probably gonna miss the first game of the season and potentially more with the calf injury that he is dealing with. That is something we absolutely have to take into account because he is hugely important to the best case scenario for this team on offense. And the other part of it is the most frustrating element of that run game last year, as I was rewatching it this morning, wasn't even in the interior offensive lineman. The tight ends on this team are so bad in the run game and their inability to hold up on the edge consistently did this team in last year.

47:16Robert Mays: They didn't do anything about it. It's like the same group of guys, the tight end they went out and got this year is Darren Waller. You think Darren Waller is digging out edge rushers? Like that's not how this is going to work. So I am. I do have hope about what the guards can do to the physicality of this offense. I still have concerns about some of the other ancillary pieces contributing to the identity. This team is clearly chasing when they're trying to run the ball on their own terms.

47:41Dave Helman: I definitely agree with that. I just this was an offense that was incomplete in five ways last year. Hopefully it's only incomplete in like two ways this year and then we can live with it that way.

47:50Robert Mays: Let's talk about what's keeping us up at night with the 2025 Dolphins. Derek, why don't you kick us off? What is your source of anxiety with this Dolphins team? I'm sure there are several.

47:59Dave Helman: I mean, they're OK. To be clear, there are several. There are a lot of things I worry about with this team. But the glaring one, the one in flashing red lights, is the secondary. It's all a bunch of guys who are one old and like weren't on the team last year. Like it is a secondary that they have completely cobbled together outside of, OK, the only guy who played any amount of serious snaps for them who is paged to be starting for them this year is Storm Duck Storm Duck was an undrafted free agent last year and he was okay everyone else it's like uh Melifonu from from the Lions who had I think we like as like a potential swing but he got pushed out of the Lions rotation with injuries and them just having better players Minka Fitzpatrick who had a weird end to his Steelers thing and is now being reunited in Miami which is also another weird thing.

48:45Dave Helman: Kendall Sheffield from the New York Jets and Mike Hilton, who listen, I love Mike Hilton. Mike Hilton is very obviously on the wrong side of 30. And there's a, there's a potential that he just doesn't have it anymore. So this is just, it's an old cobbled together secondary that just, it's very hard to sell me on.

49:03Robert Mays: The best case scenario here, if I was trying to sell you on it, is that the pass rush is so good and they can play enough junk zone behind it and Anthony Weaver, who I think is very good at this. And I think if you look at the structure of that defense last year, he is a defensive coordinator that I feel good about him getting the best out of those pieces. Even if we're not that excited about the pieces, maybe if that's the version of the defense that you're talking about, and this is the best pass rush in football, can they get to average or slightly below average defensively? And can this offense be as good as it has been when two, it has been healthy.

49:40Robert Mays: That formula is like a wild card team. That's the best case scenario. But I do think that's the path. If we're trying to carve

49:47Derrik Klassen: it out, are we sure the dolphins aren't just the snowbird giants, like at least defensively? Cause I feel like we're, I did, I have deja vu talking about the defense right now where I'm like this pass rush kicks ass. Don't look too hard at the secondary, but at least the giants have done something about it.

50:04Robert Mays: The Giants at least threw resources at the secondary. The Dolphins have not done that because they have no resources.

50:10Derrik Klassen: I like the state of the Giants secondary more than the state of the Dolphins secondary, to be very clear.

50:17Dave Helman: Right, because the big thing the Dolphins did with their secondary is like, oh, they got Minka Fitzpatrick. Well, you have to trade Jalen Ramsey away to do it. So that doesn't even really count as like we invested a bunch in it.

50:27Robert Mays: Yeah, I just don't know what this is going to look like. And there are other teams that we'll talk about later. I don't want to even want to mention the specific one I'm thinking of because I know the blowback that will happen where teams are like their corners are terrible. I've seen corners on that team contribute to a good defense. This is all theoretical. Like Mike Hilton as a blitzer within this scheme, I get some of that. Like I do think him and Mel Fonu, like there's a vision for probably how they want to deploy those guys and unleash them as pass rushers close to the line of scrimmage.

50:55Robert Mays: Like I get some of it, but this team holding up in coverage, I think it's really hard to get there and talk yourself into it. what's keeping me up at night with this team is that the dolphins as constructed when we thought that they were like a contending team they were a playoff team they were already like a stars and scrubs roster that's how this thing was built they leveraged themselves for these guys they traded a lot for tyree killed they traded a first round pick for nick chubb they patron armstead and free agency like this was already a fragile build and a needle they were trying to thread well there's still a stars and scrubs roster but some of the stars are gone right jayle ramsey's not here anymore.

51:31Robert Mays: Teron Armstead's not here anymore. And so I just don't know what this is all supposed to be and how it's all supposed to fit together. This team is$27 million over the 2026 cap right now. And there are certain things that they'll do to handle that, right? Tyreek Hill is like a$50 million cap at next year. He'll either be extended or he will be released. But that brings me to my big question here. Who are the building blocks on this team? like who are the guys that you think you're going to be able to move forward with in 26 and 27 and feel good about who are the good established rookie contract players on the dolphins it's just

52:09Dave Helman: chop like in terms of guys who are on hn but he's ruined it by saying rookie contract so i got nothing yeah listen i love devon hn when he's on the field but he's a smaller guy who's not on the field as much as you would like him to like in terms of guys that we have seen be relatively healthy and really good. It's kind of just chop.

52:28Robert Mays: This team has such a short runway for what it can be because of how it's built. And I don't even feel good about their short-term chances. And we'll get to the existential stuff here in a second, but that's, what's keeping me up at night is this was already a stars and scrubs team. And now it has fewer stars. And I just think what you're trying to do and what you're trying to pull off the high wire acts necessary for this to be a potential playoff team and for you to achieve your goals, I just think is so, so hard to do. What are you watching the first month of the season with these dolphins, David?

53:02Derrik Klassen: So we have a tendency to do this at the wide receiver position, and I completely understand why. There are so many amazing ones. There's more than ever before. It just feels like they keep coming and two more jump into the league every year. You know, this time last year, Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. were were ifs. And now we view them as big time, like very good receivers. So in that landscape, if you have a down year later, bye. I don't want to hear about you. It's so true. You're just dead.

53:34Robert Mays: It's over for you.

53:35Derrik Klassen: The quickness with which we just write a guy. It's like, oh, he's only like the 16th best receiver in the league. Screw this guy. So obviously I'm talking about Tyreek Hill. It was undeniably a down year. He played through an injury. It was very pedestrian. And especially by his standards, it was shockingly normal, right? Like you didn't see any of the regular Tyree kill stuff, any of the run after catch, any of the 80 yard house calls. And on top of that, we have to acknowledge that the relationship seems like it's soured a little bit, right? I mean, Tyree is a rotten period and he is not contributing to it in a good way.

54:15Derrik Klassen: we I'm pretty confident saying that I think the Dolphins probably tried to move on from Tyreek it's just he's he's on the wrong side of 30 he's got a big contract he's a tough guy to move and so I think the Dolphins probably looked at it and they're like all right well it's not the worst consolation prize to be stuck with a very dangerous deep threat wide receiver if that's the situation that we're in. And to be fair to him and to them, I'm not ready to just say Tyreek Hill lost it. I'm really not. Like he, the, if you go and look at, at his, like the, the advanced numbers from last year, it looks about right.

54:51Derrik Klassen: Like, I don't have a good reason for why last year was so bad, but the, the yards per reception, the air yards per target, the yak per reception, that, that one was a little bit worse, but it was, it was still close to some of his other years. So I think he's probably still got some juice. I mean, if you extrapolate his numbers for a full, healthy to a season, and obviously that's a big part of it, right? To a missed several games. If to a plays all of last year, you're talking about a 90 catch 1100 yard season for Tyree kill, which is right in line with what you would expect. Well, I mean, it's, it's not as great as a couple of his dolphins years, but it's a perfectly good season.

55:30Derrik Klassen: And so what, what I'm looking at in the first month of the season is like, are we burying Tyree kill a little bit too early and I won't be surprised if the answer is yes like maybe he doesn't have a ton of time left but I think it's totally possible that he's got another year or two left in his in his bag why I

55:47Robert Mays: think this is particularly important it goes back to my last point with the stars and scrubs thing like if Tyreek Hill is not a superstar with the way that you have built this team the rest of it is irrelevant it just starts it ceases to matter and so I think watching what that looks like over the first month is perfect mine is something we've danced around a little bit when I'm watching the first month of the season. Just how many of this, how many of the, we need this to work moves for the dolphins actually work. Jonas Avenay and the trade-up you made for him, Hilton and Mellophone were being spot starters for you on these cheap deals, the Darren Wall or Hail Mary, like how many of these actually work?

56:23Robert Mays: Because if several of them do, I do think that there is a path for this team, even if it's narrow. If most of them don't, then I think that we're looking at a pretty rough, disappointing, hard to watch season for elements of this roster.

56:38Dave Helman: They are trying to hit the nastiest parlay to be like a 10 win team. It's like the way that I feel about this roster. I don't love it.

56:46Robert Mays: This is, I love this. And it's such a great comparison because the way that I have looked at how they've handled this off season is the way that I would look at my buddy with a gambling problem where it's like, yeah, man, this could work, but I cannot support how you're trying to do it.

57:00Dave Helman: Yeah, it's like I can look at the six individual things and be like, I guess that could happen. But then altogether, it's like, OK, you sound insane. You need to you need to talk to somebody.

57:10Derrik Klassen: Mike McDaniel's just like, we've had a rough couple of hours, but this is how we're going to climb out of it. It's fine. It's like, buddy, the sun's coming up.

57:17Robert Mays: Let's just call it a day. Yeah, he's your buddy at the sports book. He's just got his head in his hands. That's exactly where Mike McDaniel is right now. What counts as a successful season, David, for the 2025 Miami Dolphins?

57:28Derrik Klassen: you can call it a cop-out if you want to but what steven ross said at the end of last season is etched in my brain i've mentioned it on the show before but remember the dolphins finished just outside the playoff field they were eight and nine they were alive on the final afternoon of the season and steven ross thought it was like necessary to say after the game ended that like hey i'm not firing chris career and mike mcdaniel i just need you to know that And then his direct quote was continuity and leadership is not to be confused with an acceptance that the status quo is good enough. So that's what the owner said.

58:05Derrik Klassen: So who am I to say that anything short of a playoff berth is going to be good enough? Because clearly the owner expects this team in the playoffs, whether it's fair or not.

58:13Robert Mays: And I can see them potentially being a playoff team. We've talked about that. I think there is a path for them to do that, Derrik. But like, who gives a shit?

58:22Dave Helman: Like it doesn't like to what to what end is a playoff if they scrape into the playoffs in worse condition than they have done in like 2022 or 2023 when those teams got smacked when it matters. And then they get here and you said they're what, twenty seven million dollars over next year's cap. And again, I know that they can fudge that and some of that stuff, but they don't have that many clear like building blocks. It's like, to what end does a nine or 10 win season wildcard birth even give you? I just, I don't know, man. It's, it's hard. It's very hard for me to get excited about a team that could comfortably be over 500.

58:56Robert Mays: I threw out on Twitter earlier today, just a joke about that line in my prep for this show. And then the, what is a successful season for the dolphins? I said, I truly have no idea. And somebody responded. I think this is right. They could be picking first in the draft or they could be a wildcard team. Like I think that both of those things are on the table for the dolphins. And I don't think I can say that for a lot of teams. So Mike McDaniel and Chris Greer, part of this, like what is success for them? We talked about this a little bit with the giants yesterday. It's not that interesting to me to look at it through that lens.

59:26Robert Mays: I'd rather look at it in a vacuum. Like what is success for the dolphins? If I was trying to lay it out, here's what I would say. This is like my devil's advocate point. I don't even know if I believe this, but I think this is maybe what would make dolphins fans feel good. You walk out of this season feeling really good about to a, when he's healthy, like this offense has been good when he has been healthy like is he somebody that okay even at this price tag he's in that jared goff sort of group of quarterbacks where we know we can win with this guy if the right pieces are around him like we continue to feel good about that i think that's a box you have to check and then the other part of this is you start developing a cache of young players that you feel decent about like these guys that are kind of unknowns right now patrick Paul, Jonas Savanaya, Kenneth Grant, is there going to be a core of six, seven, eight guys that as we had a soft reset here with some of the Tyreek Hill and aging players moving on, we can pivot quickly because we found the right pieces.

1:00:22Robert Mays: They have a fourth round comp pick for Javon Holland. They have a third rounder that they got in the Woody Marks trade for the Texans. Like, is there going to be in, when we're having this conversation next year, can I I ask you guys, who are the young building blocks for the dolphins with the same tone as I just did today? I think that to me marks success for the long-term health of the franchise.

1:00:40Derrik Klassen: And I don't really think it's, I really don't think it's as bleak as, as it might sound. The big question for me is just, are Mike McDaniel and Chris Greer gonna lead that reset, right? Like that's my big question too. Yeah. That's what, that's what we don't know right now. But if you move past that uncertainty, if two is good and healthy and what you just said comes to pass with some of the young players, I think the long term outlook for the Dolphins can be fine, even if the present outlook is just very strange.

1:01:12Robert Mays: Where we get with Mike McDaniel by the end of the season, I'm fascinated by it. I think you get to a place where even if this doesn't go right, you still convince yourself he's the best coach for this team moving forward because they just don't have the personnel to be consistently successful. If that's the end game here, I'm okay with that. I'm much more concerned with how this team has been built than with how this team has been coached. And sometimes you throw the baby out with the bathwater when it comes to those decisions at the highest level.

1:01:38Dave Helman: That feels the only thing I'll, the last thing I'll say is that feels a little bit like what has happened with Cleveland, where again, like so many things have gone wrong for them, but it's like, they kept Kevin Stefanski. And if you look at just the record, it's like, he should be fired. But it's like, well, I think Kevin Stefanski is a good coach. So I wouldn't want to fire him.

1:01:52Robert Mays: I think that's a very good comparison. And listen, Andrew Barry, I think there are plenty of mistakes and the draft record is horrible and obviously the Watson trade. But I think in terms of process with most of the other stuff that they've done, it's a little bit easier for me to get on board with that compared to a lot of things that the Dolphins have done. The Deshaun Watson, what's other than Deshaun Watson trade is a very other than how is the play, Mrs. Lincoln. But I do think I feel a little bit better about the leadership in Cleveland collectively than I do about the leadership in Miami.

1:02:21Robert Mays: I guess that's what I would say. All right. Let's get to the New York Jets. Our preview for the 2025 New York Jets. They're off season in 60 seconds. Hired Aaron Glenn as their head coach. Tanner Ankstrom as their offensive coordinator. Still Steve Wilkes is their defensive coordinator. Chris Harris is their DBs coach and defensive passing game coordinator. Scott Turner is their passing corner on offense. Signed Justin Fields, two years, 40 million,$30 million guaranteed. Extended Garrett Wilson, four years, 130 million, 890 guaranteed. Sauce Gardner, four years, 120 million, 85 guaranteed. Jamie and Sherwood back three years, 45 million, 30 guaranteed.

1:02:53Robert Mays: Brandon Stevens is in free agency as the cornerback. Three years,$36 million,$23 guaranteed. Signed to Andre Sisco's safety. One year,$8.5 million. Also brought in Josh Reynolds, Isaiah Oliver, and Josh Myers in free agency. Lost Aaron Rodgers, Devontae Adams, DJ Reed, Javon Kinlaw, Hassan Redick, and Morgan Moses in free agency. Drafted Armand Membu in the first round at offensive tackle. Tight end Mason Taylor in the second round. Cornerback Azaree Thomas in the third round. Your boy, Derek. Wide receiver Arian Smith in the fourth round. And safety Malachi Moore also in the fourth round. Derek, what are you most excited about in watching the 2025 New York Jets?

1:03:29Dave Helman: Just Aaron Glenn's version of what this Jets defense is going to look like, because I spent I've spent a lot of last year, I think, and a lot of this offseason saying that, like, there's still reason to be excited about the Jets defense. Like, I think the roster has atrophied a little bit, but like you still have theoretically one of the best corners in the NFL. You have Quinton Williams, who is a monster when he's playing well. Quincy Williams who was playing well behind him Jimmy and Sherwood at the other linebacker spot like they have these Will McDonald has been an ascending star at the pass rusher spots like they have a lot of dudes that if the defense gets turned around a little bit and I again they played well early last year when Sala was there I really trust Glenn not only as a defensive coach like I've spoken a number of times of what I thought about him as a secondary coach when he was with the Saints he obviously showed some of that with getting a lot of the young guys to play really well in Detroit but then even just cobbling together what he did last year with Detroit given they had like a zillion injuries was phenomenal and for him to I think come into this roster hopefully a little bit healthier than that for the rest of the year I just again I don't know if they're going to be that 2023 Jets defense but like if they are the 11th best defense and look like a really solid unit again I'm not going to be that surprised and I'm

1:04:39Robert Mays: pretty excited to see it I'll be curious what it looks like structurally like are we I assume we're going to see a shitload of man coverage. Like that's just what Aaron Glenn does. And so I assume we'll see that how aggressive they are with the pressure is something I'm going to be watching. Like Steve Wilkes has in his past shown a willingness to really bring it and turn up the heat. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw that. That's not really what the DNA of this Jets defense looked like under the previous regime. Even if they did, they did some interesting stuff with those like five Oh looks on passing downs where they had those overload fronts and they had some creative ideas, but this was never like a heavy pressure team.

1:05:12Robert Mays: It's never how they wanted to live. So where they fall there is interesting to me. But if you look at the man coverage success that this team had, they played a ton of man coverage on third down under Robert Sala, and they were really good at it. Like in 2023, the only defense that had a better man coverage success rate per next gen stats than the New York Jets was the Cleveland Browns. They were fantastic. And so unleashing this group, especially the corners, like I see it. Brandon Stevens is such a fascinating pet project for Aaron Glenn specifically. Like, I think he is such a good, him and Andre Sisco, like them as, okay, we think that these guys are available.

1:05:53Robert Mays: Free agents are always available for a reason. And I think you get there with both Stevens and Sisco. It was a down year for Sisco last year in a nightmarish situation with the Jags. And Brandon Stevens is somebody, he's like Luis Mendoza in Mighty Ducks too. Like he's the fastest skater in the world, but can't stop. Like that's Brandon Stevens. He's the best coverage quarter in the league that never turns his head around when the ball is coming. And so you see it with these guys, like they're imperfect players. And if Aaron Glenn can work the same sort of magic with this group that he did developing some of those guys in Detroit, and they can be that sort of like, fuck you, man, coverage team.

1:06:28Robert Mays: I am excited about what the end version of that could look like, Dave.

1:06:33Derrik Klassen: Especially with the actually having, well, hopefully, hopefully, I think a, a more effective than it would get credit for pass rush. And obviously that's going to hinge on Jermaine Johnson coming back healthy after his promising season. It's going to hinge on Will McDonald continuing the success that we saw last year. You're going to want a little bit more from Quinn and Williams, but if those three guys are fire and that is a hell of a way to start for Aaron Glenn and, and you can do a lot of that stuff. Like you can get away with playing the way you want to play if nobody in the pocket has trust that they can hold onto the football.

1:07:12Derrik Klassen: So it's one of those weird things where sometimes you're just willing to give a unit a mulligan, you know, like you want to, you want to dive into all this next level analysis and come up with the reason why the jets weren't that good on defense last year. But sometimes you're just like, ah, it's a weird sport. These are good players. Aaron Glenn's a good coach. Steve Wilkes is a good coach like i'm pretty optimistic that this could be much better results even though i don't have a lot of numbers to point to why that might be the case but i i think it's a totally realistic hope

1:07:43Robert Mays: this is not scientific whatsoever but one of the most impressive things in the world to me about the robert sala era of the jets is how high the give it shit factor was on defense as everything else was horrendous they were the best defense in the league with zach wilson playing quarterback on the other end. It's so hard to do that because defense is so based on how much you're willing to put into it. And the fact that they did it for so long, I think them white knuckling it for like two straight seasons, eventually that thing was going to drive off a cliff if those conditions were continuing.

1:08:17Robert Mays: And I think that's what the back half of last season felt like. And so those guys that we felt like were true ascending star level players, the sauce gardeners of the world, Quinton Williams, if they play like star level players, what can this defense feel like? And I think it can be better than preseason expectations projections would lead you to belief. Dave, what are you most excited about with the 2025 jets?

1:08:42Derrik Klassen: This is one of those times where I do wish in specific ways that the NFL was a little bit more like college. Obviously the NFL is way too good to get away with this but I look at I look at what the Jets are doing this year and I just wish they could call Paul Johnson and install the triple option just like play the wishbone because it looks like they're equipped to do that like you add a quarterback who's capable of rushing for 600 1100 yards in a season you just drafted these badass tackles the Jets offensive line should be pretty good if those young guys live up to their draft billing you got a great one, two punch of running backs, Brees Hall and Braylon Allen.

1:09:23Derrik Klassen: I would love to see this team run the triple option. It would probably not work because the NFL is harder than that, but like, I want to see them get goofy with it and lean into the run game. Obviously there's ways you can do that while still running an NFL offense. I think Justin Fields needs to be a big part of it, but the, the weapons and the, and the capital that you bring to the run game should make it fun to watch. And yeah, great defense running game. Like what's not to love smash mouth football.

1:09:51Robert Mays: We ran a flex bone offense in high school, my junior year. Yes. That's, that's what I want to see here. I want to see like mid two thousands air force football where you have one fullback quote unquote, that is, you're like lined up behind the quarterback halfback. And then you have two like flex bone wing backs. And that's how you construct your running game. I want Braylon Allen to be the hammer. and I want Brees Hall and Isaiah Davis lined up, like flexed off the line of scrimmage and let's go to town. That is the best version of this Jets offense. Service Academy football.

1:10:23Dave Helman: They have three backs to do it. Like Brees Hall is really explosive when he's playing well. Braylon Allen, I think is way smoother than anyone. His size has like any business being. He's not the best like breakaway guy, but his feet are phenomenal for a guy his size. And then Isaiah Davis is like, I think a majority of teams in the NFL would be happy if he was their second back. and he is the third back for the New York Jets. So like they just, they've got a stable of guys on top of a quarterback who can run. And then on top of also like Armand Membu, man, him and some of what him and Tucker were doing in the run game, getting some double teams in the preseason insane.

1:10:59Dave Helman: Like they just look awesome.

1:11:00Robert Mays: And those two guys next to each other. And you know, Joe Tippman is like a big physical player. John Simpson can move people. And I'm excited about what Fashanu can be. Like every time we do this with young offensive lines, there's a little part of me that's like, I want to see it first. Like it's just because you threw a lot of investments into it doesn't mean it's going to work. But I am excited about what this group can potentially be. Let's get to the swing points for the 2025 New York Jets, the areas where this season could potentially pivot for this Jets team. Dave, why don't you kick us off?

1:11:32Derrik Klassen: So we just mentioned them and we I mean, we talked about them in particular in regard to the run game. But in general, it's just really exciting when you spend this type of capital on two offensive tackles in back to back years. Like it's the same thing. Pittsburgh did the same thing with Roger Jones and Troy Fitanu. You draft Olu Fashanu 11th one year. You draft Armand Membu 7th the next year. And as as high as those guys go, like, you know, you're one of the first one or two tackles off the board. The expectations are so fun. And so I think the swing point is just how good are those guys? How quickly do they gel into a formidable tackle duo?

1:12:13Derrik Klassen: And if it's quickly, that's so cool. I mean, obviously it helps in the run game. It would help a quarterback like Justin Fields, who is going to hold on to the ball, who's probably going to try to make plays after the three and a half second clock goes off. And when you've got guys like that, it can open things up for you. So I'm not trying to sell anybody on the Jets as an elite offense this year. But if those guys are really good, it could have really big ramifications in all aspects of the offense.

1:12:44Dave Helman: Yeah, those two are like if this is pie in the sky, but if they're like the eighth best tackle duo in the league and they look really good in pass protection, like that's the thing with Justin Fields is I think there are ways that this can work out. But Justin Fields is going to be late and he is going to hold on to the ball. But if him being late and holding onto the ball is he has an avenue to escape three and a half seconds into the play, as opposed to he is getting smacked like that is going to make a big difference. And obviously it's not going to happen every time when you have two young offensive tackles.

1:13:14Dave Helman: But if that can work out for them more than it did last year, then I think they could be in a relatively decent spot, given what we're expecting.

1:13:23Robert Mays: My best case scenario for Justin Fields still at this point, I think it's kind of morphed into this because of what he's been as a player. He's robotic in the pocket. He's not moving. He's not moving particularly quickly. Like that's just not his game. He's we've talked about this, Derek. He's not a creative player from the pocket, despite being an overwhelming athlete. The best version of Justin Fields in the NFL is like dime store Jalen Hurts. Like that, that is what he is. And Jalen Hurts's success has been driven in part by the pass protection he gets on the Eagles, his limitations and how quickly he is playing matter less because of how good the pass protection is in Philadelphia.

1:14:00Robert Mays: And I don't think Justin Fields has the strengths that Jalen Hurts has relatively, but I think the path forward for him can look somewhat similar. And that starts with this group being a really, really good pass protecting group right away, because that has never been part of teams that Justin Fields has played on. It was not the case in Chicago. And then last year in Pittsburgh, Broderick Jones, especially early in the season was really struggling in pass protection. So I think even if Armand Membu is like a B plus, this is already going to be the best pass protecting unit Justin Fields has ever played with in the NFL.

1:14:33Dave Helman: Yeah, like I know for a while I was a Justin Fields defender. The ship has absolutely sailed on him being like a good NFL quarterback, but I am genuinely interested to see what it looks like for the first time in his life getting pass protection that felt like Ohio State. That I'm just curious to see what it looks like.

1:14:49Derrik Klassen: It's so bleak to think that that this is the best pass protection he'll have ever played behind a second year tackle and a rookie, but it's true. It's definitely true. It's just bleak. It should be.

1:15:01Robert Mays: That's what I'm willing to say in the third week of August because again, Fashano, I have a lot of hope that he can be good and I really like what I've already seen from Armand Membu in the preseason and I loved him as a prospect. It should be the best pass protection he's ever gotten. I don't, I'm not willing to write that. I'm not willing to write that in pen quite yet. What is keeping us up at night about the 2025 New York Jets Derek why don't you kick us off here what is keeping you up at night about this team

1:15:31Dave Helman: the Jets have one definitively good pass catcher who to me is a wide receiver too in an ideal world that's not a great way to build a passing offense and I know we just talked about how much of like this is probably going to be a team that is going to be like top five and run right this year they want to build it through the ground all that stuff that's great in the NFL you're still going to throw like 400 times a year like at the end of the day you still have to throw it a decent amount and if the only guy that you can rely on to do any of that is Garrett Wilson who is good he's really explosive he has really good ball skills he is also like a little bit of one of those like herky-jerky route runners he can be in weird spots on routes sometimes which I think particularly for Justin Fields even though they played together in college I do think at the NFL level is like a little bit of a icky combination to me that I'm kind of curious to see how it works out so to me it's just last year they felt a little bit incomplete and they still feel pretty incomplete

1:16:25Robert Mays: outside from quarterback from wide receivers or just pass catchers two through six is there a worse team in the nfl coming into the season than the jets i mean probably not i struggle to think of it if it's out there i mean washington pre-debo may have been in that conversation but debo is now in washington i don't know who else would even come to mind is this is a rough situation like maybe the next team we're gonna preview could have something to say about that maybe yeah yeah potentially potentially i think i think that's probably the right answer the new england patriots are in the conversation because i almost say

1:17:06Dave Helman: cleveland but it's like david and joker's pretty good he's better than than what we're gonna get

1:17:10Robert Mays: here like even hunter henry is a better pass i mean we'll see what happens with mason taylor but we're talking about a second round rookie tight end at least we know is the fly in the ointment

1:17:19Dave Helman: Yeah, exactly. At least we know he's competent.

1:17:22Robert Mays: That's my that's how I struggle with this team is that, again, if we're going back to the Jalen Hurts thing, Jalen Hurts has the Monstars as his past catching group. Justin Fields is not walking through that door with that sort of group here. It's Jalen Hurts or it's Garrett Wilson and not a lot of other things that we feel good about. And so I just it's hard not to look at that group and have really limited expectations for this team, because as much as we want them to be a service academy run game, And as much as I do think they can lean on that, that sounds great. Like that sounds great in August.

1:17:54Robert Mays: Like, oh, we're just going to ground and pound and we're going to grind teams down. It's like, this is the NFL. Like eventually your quarterback is going to have to make like six to eight plays a game for you to be worth the shit. And I just don't know what that's going to look like with a quarterback that has Justin Fields' spotty history and a pass catching troop that has Garrett Wilson and not much else to rely on.

1:18:13Derrik Klassen: And that's why I'm really happy that the Jets paid Garrett Wilson and paid him well, by the way, like they paid him a top five contract. And at least he's got that in his pocket, literally, because what I lose sleep about is Garrett Wilson potentially being Terry McLaurin. And when he's about to turn 30, the Jets finally find a quarterback. I hope that doesn't happen because he's so fun. but it that's the trajectory that he's on right now where he's seven years into the league before

1:18:45Robert Mays: he finds out what reliable quarterback play looks like i'd be curious to talk to people with the jets about the contract they gave justin fields i mean it's it's not a small deal like it's 30 million dollars guaranteed it's a two-year 40 million dollar deal and i do think that the last couple contracts that were handed out that these like one year uh salvage the quarterback type of approaches like with Sam Darnold. It's like, all right, well, we salvaged the quarterback and now he's gone. Like, what are we going to do? And so it feels like they're protecting themselves a little bit by doing it this way, but he has a$23 million cap at next year and it's 22 million in dead money.

1:19:20Robert Mays: So you're going to pay him$30 million over the next two years, no matter what. So you are insulating yourself just in case he hits and you want to roll with this again next season, but you are paying a premium to do it. It's not free.

1:19:32Dave Helman: It's not free, but also like, to me, it doesn't like if they suck and get the fourth pick, they can still take whoever. And it doesn't, you don't feel that bad about it. I think that's exactly right.

1:19:40Robert Mays: There is some opportunity costs for it, but it's not so prohibitive that it might be worth protecting yourself a little bit. I assume that was part of the thought process. My one's keeping me up at night is not nearly as problematic at 9.20 PM when we're recording this as it was at 6 PM when I was doing my notes, because this team traded for Harrison Phillips today. My issue with this team outside of the pass catcher when I was looking at the roster is the interior defensive line next to Quinn and Williams, because it was rough before they made that trade for Harrison Phillips. We're talking about Byron Cowart, Jay Tufelay and Derek Nottie.

1:20:18Robert Mays: Apparently Leonard Taylor, who is a college free agent, 2024 is at a decent camp. But like, that's what we were doing with the other interior guys. It's like, I don't know. Leonard Taylor's looks pretty good. So having like a functional body in Harrison Phillips now to play next to Quinn and Williams makes me feel better about this group because I was genuinely concerned about the state of that interior offensive or interior defensive line. You're going to sleep just fine, buddy. That's right. That's right. Listen, I'm never sleeping that well this time of year, but I am going to sleep a little bit easier about the Jets after making that trade.

1:20:52Robert Mays: They didn't give up much to do it. And I think this is a Vikings team that's trying to save a little bit of money based on the amount of money that they've spent in free agency. It's a crowded room there because of the guys that Minnesota signed. So I think it's a smart thing. Darren Mugi calling a team that has a little bit of a glut there just because they were in a rough spot. I support this. They traded for Juwan Briggs from the Browns earlier today, also as defensive line depth. But based on their recent history, I think I feel a little bit better about Harrison Phillips than I do about Juwan Briggs.

1:21:21Dave Helman: Yeah, I don't care about a Browns defensive tackle. Sorry, but this is like the best kind of trade that you can make in August. Like, yeah, it's like they feel you're not, again, you're not leveraging that much to go do it. and you feel what is other than receiver pretty clearly the biggest spot on your roster that needed a little bit of help and like for as much as I love their backers they are more run and hit and find the running back type of guys in space and they are not necessarily the take on Quincy Williams can do a little bit of it but they are not the biggest guys and so having Harrison Phillips to help them there I think could go a long way let's get to what we're watching in

1:21:53Robert Mays: the first month of the season with the New York Jets Derek why don't you kick us off what are you watching in the first month of the year?

1:22:00Dave Helman: Well, we've joked a little bit about what the Jets offense is going to be. You know, they have all these running backs. They're going to run the ball. They're going to be a service academy offense. But I think that really is a genuine question of like, what is the Jets offense supposed to look like? Because with Tanner Angstrin, he comes from the Lions and the difference in the two quarterbacks could not be any wider. Jared Goff does a lot of things. Well, the two things he does not do are move outside of the pocket and throw a go ball. He does not do either of those things very well. The only two things I'm pretty sure Justin Fields can do right now are run and move outside of the pocket and throw a go ball.

1:22:34Dave Helman: So I just like how they construct the offense around those two widely different skill sets is pretty fascinating to me. Obviously, I think there will be some overlap with the run game, especially some of their under center stuff. But like the passing game, it could be worlds apart. And I just have no idea about like what that's going to actually look like.

1:22:51Robert Mays: My assumption is we're borrowing very heavily from the play action elements of the Detroit Lions passing game. And not necessarily the like ripped balls over the middle play action elements, but just having play action be a foundational part of what this passing game looks like. If you look at Tanner Angstrom's history, it's actually kind of interesting. Like, so he started his coaching career in 2005 as like a QC for the San Diego Toreros when Jim Harbaugh was there. I thought you were going to say the Chargers. So he actually started his career with Jim Harbaugh and then spent a ton of time at San Diego over like a, you know, almost like a decade long period.

1:23:27Robert Mays: And so in his bones, he's kind of like a Jim Harbaugh guy. And then in 2020, he was a QC coach, I believe for the Fresno state football team when Kalen DeBoer and Frank and Ryan Grubb were there. And this was during the COVID season and like four games into the year, he got hired by the, by the Detroit lions is like one of their QC coaches and then was retained by Dan Campbell. And so his background is like as a Harbaugh guy. And then he was the passing game coordinator for the lions. And so I think a lot of like what he believes in his bones about football is kind of drilled into what that Jim Harbaugh stuff looks like.

1:24:05Robert Mays: And so run game play action, like that's who we're going to be. I do think that is going to be, those will be the defining traits of like what the Detroit or what the New York jets offense looks like this year. That is my guess. That's music to my ears. honestly.

1:24:19Dave Helman: And that kind of tracks like a lot of what Justin Fields should be good at is a lot of like the older Greg Roman type stuff. Like when I think about like what Colin Kaepernick had been for them, even some of the stuff that like Roman was doing in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor, like a lot of that stuff actually does track. So that's, that's interesting.

1:24:34Robert Mays: And then their offensive line coach, it was the tight ends coach for the lions last year. And obviously the tight ends coach is involved in like how you construct the running game. And so I'm sure there's going to be a lot of carryover and hopefully the diversity of that running game. And because that's the special sauce for what the lions can do is that their offensive line is so good. They can run anything they want. Like it's an incredibly diverse run game, a lot of outside zone. Like that is the foundation of it, but they can get to whatever. And you'd hope in the best case scenario here, Derek, with this offensive line, we have a similar sort of feel to what the jets running game is.

1:25:08Dave Helman: I really hope so. Cause I mean, they're, we already talked about the passing game and they need the run game to open everything up. It's going to be a lot more flood than a lot of those dig routes than the lines. That's for sure.

1:25:18Robert Mays: Whatever the offense is, Dave, they have a very tough early season slate. We're going to find out a lot about this New York Jets offense very quickly over the first month of the season.

1:25:28Derrik Klassen: It was beautiful when I heard y 'all wanted to talk about Tanner Ingstrand because this all sounds good. The theory of what they could be or what they want to do. It sounds great in August. They need to have it. They don't need to have it figured out, but they need to be ready for the start of this season because September is Pittsburgh, Buffalo at Tampa at Miami. And I think that's, that's such a fun gauntlet of different types of good defense. Like you've got your Steelers who have your overwhelming edge in TJ Watt, that a rookie Armand member is going to have to deal with, by the way, you got the bills.

1:26:05Derrik Klassen: We just did a whole thing about how the bills have been good for so long. Then you got Todd Bulls and all the crazy shit that he likes to do. And Anthony Weaver down in Miami, who is a great piece of this modern coaching tree, this new school of defense with the disguises and the sim pressures and all that good stuff. So Tanner Ingstrand and Justin Fields, both are going to get the kitchen sink thrown at them in the first month of the season. So I hope you're ready for

1:26:33Robert Mays: it both of y 'all let's get to what counts as a successful season for the new york jets in your mind what is success for aaron glenn's first year dave derrick and i have actually talked about this

1:26:47Derrik Klassen: on previous shows and like we're both we're both just kind of intrigued and excited by the jets which that's a start by the way just being like thinking the jets are fun is a great start that would be a great place to start for the New York Jets is they were bad and a bummer for the most of the last like four years and especially during the Aaron Rodgers catastrophe like you can be bad you can be a bummer you shouldn't be both and that's what the Jets were so just Aaron Glenn getting here and doing a restart with some exciting young players and hopefully getting the most out of the established players on defense it's just nice to think that the Jets are are a fun, intriguing team again.

1:27:30Derrik Klassen: And if Glenn can get the defense back to like great status, like if they breathe fire again, the way they did a couple of years ago, that would be icing on the cake.

1:27:40Robert Mays: Yeah. I don't think the wins and losses are what matters here. I think this is about how we're feeling about this team by the end of the season. Like if we can just restore the vibes in Florham Park from what they have felt like, if we get proof of concept in the things this team is trying to be the run game, the physicality and intensity on defense, the young players flash for Shano membu, uh, Mason Taylor, uh, Malachi Moore. If that's what this team feels like by the end. And we're like, man, the jets play a certain way. Like you feel this team when you play the jets, even if there are limitations and imperfections about the personnel in certain key areas, that to me feels like a win, even if it's a six and 11 season.

1:28:26Dave Helman: it be the yes be the 6 and 11 or 7 and 10 team that everybody loves if the defense is hitting and playing really well again if the offense is not good but a headache to deal with and then we all come out of it at the end feeling good about whatever Aaron Glenn is doing in terms of putting guys together or just making sure that his game management is all very good if they are the team that have a scrappy 7 and 10 season and then by the end or by this time next year we're picking them as like the sneaky 11 win team that we all want to do, like how we think about like the Cardinals and teams like that.

1:28:58Dave Helman: That to me is success for a Jets team in year one.

1:29:01Robert Mays: We're going to take one more quick break and then get back with the New England Patriots.

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1:32:38Robert Mays: Our preview for the 2025 New England Patriots. They're off season in 60 seconds. Hired Mike Vrabel as their head coach. Josh McDaniels is their offensive coordinator. Terrell Williams, formerly of the Lions, is their defensive coordinator. Also have Thomas Brown, Todd Downing, Doug Marone, and Ben McAdoo on their staff. Spent a ton of money in free agency. Mill Williams, four years, 104 million, 63 guaranteed. Stephon Diggs, three years, 63 million, 26 guaranteed. Carlton Davis, three years, 54 million, 34 guaranteed. Harold Landry, three years, 43 million, 26 guaranteed. Robert Spillane, three years,$33 million.

1:33:09Robert Mays: Morgan Moses on a three-year,$24 million deal. Smaller deals for Garrett Bradbury, Mack Hollins, Clayton Chasen. They lost to Kobe Percet, Jonathan Jones, Devon Godshaw, and Joe Milton this offseason in a variety of signings and trades. In the draft, Will Campbell in the fourth, sorry, Will Campbell fourth overall, Travion Henderson in second round, 38th overall. Wide receiver Kyle Williams in the third round, center slash guard Jared Wilson in the third round. Craig Woodson, the safety, and Joshua Farmer, the defensive tackle both in the fourth round. Derek, I think I know your answer to this, but what are you most excited about in watching the 2025 New England Patriots?

1:33:46Dave Helman: Well, if I was being really obnoxious, I would say Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, but I'm not going to do that. I'm going to say year two of Drake May in what feels like a more real offense than last year. I think like I went into last year being really excited about Drake May, the player, but you looked at the roster he was given, especially on the offensive line and it was just like what and like I think Alex Van Pelt was a fine play caller but he was also a relatively like he was not a very high profile play caller in the way that I we all know that Josh McDaniels can be and has called very good offenses so Drake may getting what feels like more of a real chance with potentially some more explosive players behind him a left tackle that is probably not going to get him killed to the same degree he's an NFL offensive

1:34:26Robert Mays: line hopefully even if it doesn't come together even if it all doesn't click Alex Van Pelt was fine last year that you're we have disaster situations for quarterbacks in a variety of different ways sometimes it can be structural and situational that was not the case with the Patriots last year like they were not embarrassing and how this thing was put together the offensive line was the reason that the New England Patriots were a horrendous situation for a young quarterback it is one of the worst offensive lines talent wise I can remember watching in the league in quite some time even if it doesn't hit this year it is not going to be that it's not and like

1:35:01Dave Helman: The part of this that I'm most excited about is the down to down, even though like the end numbers for that team were not very good. The down to down for the passing game was like good. Like Drake Mays success rate was like league average ish. And for among rookie quarterbacks over the past couple of decades, it was actually one of the better marks in the league. It's just that the explosive plays weren't really there. And then he was still taking a good number of sacks, getting some turnovers and stuff like that. But if he can get a little bit more help not getting obliterated in the pocket and then maybe Stefan Diggs makes a few plays.

1:35:30Dave Helman: Maybe Kyle Williams really steps up and makes a few plays. Maybe Travion Henderson takes a screen or two and really pops it for a touchdown. Like that can be the real difference of this offense going from, OK, they're decent at getting us five yards. Can you get 15? That's that's to me the difference.

1:35:45Robert Mays: Yeah. The fact that this was even a respectable offense when you look at some of the numbers after Drake May got in there with the state of the offensive line and the pass catchers being Hunter Henry, Demario Hunter Henry, Pop Douglas and Kayshaun Booty. I think there's reason to believe in even league average circumstances, Dave, that Drake may can take a significant step and be one of those guys that we're really excited to watch each week.

1:36:09Derrik Klassen: I mean, it's a classic case of a team just throwing resources at the wall because they have this cap space and the draft capital. Like when you're that bad, you pick at the top of every round. You can sign a bunch of free agents. And in the ideal world where Drake may becomes one of these franchise quarterbacks and he's still quarterbacking the Patriots in 10 years, like we'll look back on this team and be like, they were pretty bad by like the standard that we have now. You know, like it reminds me, you go back and look at the, and it's not a one-to-one because Drew Brees was not a second year player, but like the supporting cast in New Orleans, when Sean Payton and Drew Brees got there, it evolved so much and became such a more high powered thing.

1:36:56Derrik Klassen: But if this is the starting point for who we hope that Drake may can be, it's enough to unlock that. And then three, five years from now, we'll worry about putting him with, you know, his all pro caliber talent.

1:37:08Robert Mays: it reminds me of like the 2019 bills right the bills spent less money because josh was a younger player yeah he was a second year player and they went from like robert foster to john brown and cole beasley and that may not seem that important and i know 31 year old steph diggs will talk about this and kyle williams but there is a chance that we see a significant step with this group even if there are no proven stars that have been added to the equation here that is so good because there

1:37:37Derrik Klassen: was a time where John Brown and Buffalo was like, everybody was excited about that. And that seems crazy now because the standard is that much higher in Buffalo, but you got to start somewhere. Dave, what are you most excited about watching with this version of the Patriots? Well, since Derek didn't mention it, I'll just say when you make over the defense, the way that they did, like there's plenty to be excited about. It starts with the corners like Christian Gonzalez and then Carlton Davis. You just got two guys that can man up and, and make life easier on everybody else, especially Gonzalez, obviously.

1:38:10Derrik Klassen: I mean, we think of him as a truly ascending guy who's on that short list of great corners. Having two guys like that just makes life easier on everybody else. And I really felt like Mike Vrabel walked into the front office with Elliott Wolfe when he got there. And he was like, just bring me a bunch of dickheads. And I mean that as a compliment, but that's like, that's what they did. I mean, it's, it is not a surprise to me at all that Harold Landry is on this team after spending so much time in Tennessee with Mike Vrabel. That's a reunion that makes sense. Coaches love to make vibe signings like guys.

1:38:43Derrik Klassen: You get one. Yeah.

1:38:45Robert Mays: You get like one vibe signing with somebody that you know from a previous stop. And like Harold Landry was the one.

1:38:51Derrik Klassen: Bring me the guy that plays the way I like to play, that understands the tone that I want to set. And we'll go from there. Robert Spillane. I love Robert Spillane. He's such a fun player. He's violent. He plays like he just wants to get in a car crash. It's so great. Milton Williams. I mean, we can quibble. We can argue about the contract if we want to. And I think that is a worthwhile conversation. But if he does his job the way he's supposed to, again, a guy that can affect the pocket, move quarterbacks off their spot, even he's a disappointment as a first round pick. But Caleb on chase on had a nice five sack season for the Raiders last year.

1:39:29Derrik Klassen: So I just feel like they just threw money at a bunch of guys and they're like, yeah, bring bring some attitude, bring some nastiness. And again, this isn't the final form of what we want our defense to be, but it could be a really nice starting point.

1:39:42Dave Helman: And I think, too, to me, like the biggest potential return is not even biggest addition they're going to get is not even a new player. It's that Christian Barmore is hopefully healthier than he was last year. Obviously, we didn't really get Christian Barmore outside of like two games at the end of last year. And he obviously didn't look like himself dealing with a lot of health issues. So if he comes into this season looking more like the Christian Barmore that we thought was maybe like a 90 percent of Chris Jones type of player, then, yeah, that next to Milton Williams is like a pretty terrifying combo, given what they were playing with last year.

1:40:12Robert Mays: If the interior pass rush with those two guys and then Keon White, wherever he ends up lining up, like I do think that there's something to be excited about with that group. And we'll talk about the investments and what they mean for like the long-term outlook of this team. But Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez just locking people down on the outside. Like that is potentially in the cards. Like they have enough pieces on this defense, even if there are still some holes for me to be able to squint and say like, all right, I can see this group being feisty, annoying, a tough out every single week for whoever's playing against them.

1:40:46Robert Mays: let's get to the swing points for the 2025 new england patriots where this season could potentially pivot for new england i'll start this off i'm just curious about how good the offensive line is going to be i don't think it's going to be great by any stretch but do all of these things fall into place where we have an offensive line that's like middle of the road it would just be such a far cry from what it was a year ago obviously you drafted will Campbell in the, in the first round, he drafted him fourth overall. He's with so much of this in the pre-draft process about Will Campbell and some of his physical limitations.

1:41:19Robert Mays: And even seen some of that a little bit in the preseason, like he's going to have to get there in past protection just based on how he's built, but what he has been in the run game and how they have weaponized him in the run game. I'm excited about watching what him and Jerry Wilson potentially look like next to one another. Garrett Bradbury is a stopgap center. We know that, but then you have Morgan Moses a right tackle now, who is the quintessential. We just need competent right tackle play for a year player that you can sign. And then you still have Mike on one who they played to paid a ton of money at right guard, like this group, if they can be the 15th best offensive line in football, and we can really weaponize some of these guys in the run game with Travion Henderson, with Ramondre Stevenson, I'm excited to see how this goes, because if this is a solid offensive line.

1:42:05Robert Mays: I do think that the New England Patriots could be a compelling, interesting team for most of the season.

1:42:11Derrik Klassen: I just worry about how well everything, how well the return on investment goes, because we've seen this before. And I brought up the Steelers earlier in the show, but it's an example that comes to my mind because it's really exciting when you draft tackles with high picks and maybe this will happen to the Jets too, for that matter. But But Broderick Jones, to this point in his career, hasn't been the guy that you wanted. Troy Fatano didn't have a rookie season. I mean, shit happens. It's football. We see this all the time where half the rookie picks in the league, maybe more, you're going to go into next year being like, well, we need him to take that step.

1:42:50Derrik Klassen: Maybe that's Will Campbell. Maybe it's the fact that Garrett Bradbury is already struggling in camp. And that's a situation where you don't even feel good about it after making the investment, which I think most people saw coming. I think two rookies working on the left side together, Campbell and Jared Wilson. I think it'll be better than last year because it would be hard not to be, but it's easy to fall for that thing. It's easy to fall for it every off season where you're like, well, these guys are new and therefore better. And that's, that's not always the case. It's not always that easy.

1:43:26Dave Helman: I think it just depends on the ceiling, right? Like it will be better. It like for whatever I've I've been a little bit hesitant about what Will Campbell might be at his best. I'm pretty confident his worst play is a lot better than what we got out of Darian Lowe last year. And even like Morgan Moses, I think is going to help. Like Jared Wilson should be some degree of upgrade for the revolving door. They had a left guard last year. Like it's it will be some degree of better. But is it going from 32 to 26 or 32 to 19? That's that's exactly what it is. Yeah.

1:43:58Derrik Klassen: Realistically, realistically, how high do you think this unit can jump? I'd be surprised if it's, I'd be surprised.

1:44:05Robert Mays: Oh, I think it'd be better than that.

1:44:06Dave Helman: I think it'd be better than me, but I'm not betting on it to be that.

1:44:09Robert Mays: No, I think it can be better than that. I think that they can be like the 20th best offensive line in the league if things go relatively okay for this group. But I also, I completely understand that just because you invested the resources doesn't mean that's going to happen. Derek what is your swing point for the 2025 New England Patriots it's it's funny that we've said

1:44:32Dave Helman: a lot of like man there's so much new cool stuff around Drake May and then also both of our swing points are like how good is the offensive line and then mine is just are any of these skill players actually good like Stefan Diggs is getting a little bit older at this point I think he was fine in Houston but he's a little bit older coming off of some of the injuries I think that is a little bit of a concern Kyle Williams I think we all liked Kyle Williams as a draft prospect but rookie third round pick I'm not going to put like that much into that um especially given all the the draft picks they threw it at uh the last couple years and haven't really worked out um Hunter Henry is like a fine tight end but he's competent at best and then at the running back position that is actually the one I will say I have some degree of confidence and I think Travion Henderson is good and like that's not just the preseason stuff he was the guy coming out of college really explosive and typically with a lot of those like speed oriented backs it's like they're kind of just home run hitters but Henderson does have decent vision he's tougher than it would look for a guy who is like his size he's a really good pass protector he's a really good pass catcher like he's just it feels like he has the mix of floor and explosives you want but in terms of the actual pass catchers we'll see I can get there with this group though like if Kyle Williams

1:45:39Robert Mays: is competent as like a number two outside receiver by the time we get to the middle of this season if Steph Diggs still has something left in the tank if Hunter Henry is just Hunter Henry again And if Travion Henderson makes good on some of the flashes that we've seen, I think the pass protection point is a really important one. Like some of these guys who come in as these explosive backs don't contribute in the passing game because they struggle in pass protection. Travion Henderson, he'll put his head in there, right? He is not afraid in those moments and he plays with good awareness in those situations.

1:46:08Robert Mays: Like I'm excited about what he can be in that role. And so same with the offensive line where I don't think we can necessarily bank on this group being anything, but there is a path there for them to sneak up on people and surprise us a little bit.

1:46:23Derrik Klassen: I still think it almost completely hinges on digs, to be honest with you, not to be like functional because this same group of players cobbled together 3000 passing yards last year. They played full seasons and they caught 60 balls or whatever. But for this thing to ascend, And I think it depends almost entirely on what Stefan Diggs has left in the tank. And he doesn't need to be an all pro. He doesn't need to be close to what he was at his best in Buffalo. But you still need a wide receiver one. Even if he's one of the worst wide receiver ones in the NFL, you still need that guy. And Diggs had 500 yards when he got hurt halfway through the year last year.

1:47:04Derrik Klassen: He was playing fine. He still had it. He was playing fine. And so he's older. And I would say the same thing about Stefan that I said about Tyreek earlier, other than the fact that he's also coming off of an injury to his to his knee, not his wrist, like the, you know, his legs, which he uses to get down the field. So I'm I'm a little less confident that Stefan Diggs can tap back into the fountain of youth. But if he does, then I think that matters a lot.

1:47:30Robert Mays: The fact that he's just been on the field and practicing from the start of training camp, like this is not very sort of ramp up period. Like he has been part of this for most of the summer. And I do think that removes a little bit of the ambiguity about what is he coming off of the ACL? Maybe he's not a hundred percent, but some of these guys, it's like, ah, we're hoping he'll be ready for week one. You know, we're optimistic. He's, he's hit all the benchmarks on the timeline as part of the recovery process. There's been none of that with Stefan Diggs. Like they, Mike Vrabel got pissed off last week when somebody asked him if there was a chance that Diggs would miss week one.

1:48:05Robert Mays: He's like, what are you talking about? He's been out here practicing the entire time. And I think Diggs said something where it wasn't a crazy question from whoever asked it, but they dismissed the idea entirely because he has been so healthy this offseason despite coming off of that ACL. So that part of it has gone as good as it possibly could have so far. Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2025 New England Patriots?

1:48:32Dave Helman: There are parts of this defense I really like. obviously if Christian Barmore is healthy Milton Williams I think was a fine swing Keon White I absolutely adore in terms of his play style but off the edge on third down I'm a little bit dubious of what's going on here like Harold Landry is okay but that again felt more like I know this guy I just want him in the building to help us establish some stuff type of player Kalevan Chason I know he had five sacks last year I think that was as fake as it gets and then after that you just don't have that many guys like it's like Anfernee Jennings who I love Anfernee Jennings on second and four.

1:49:06Dave Helman: He might not make the team.

1:49:07Robert Mays: Yeah, because he was playing in the fourth quarter of the preseason game.

1:49:10Dave Helman: Because all he can do is set the edge. And like, he's really good at that. But he doesn't really get after the passer whatsoever. And so like, they just don't have a lot outside of these guys. And again, I really like Keon White. And he is like, by definition, an edge player. But he's 285 pounds. He's going to go through you. He's not going around you. And so I just wonder if they have enough of the quickness, enough of the speed that you would want on a third and seven to really get after the quarterback.

1:49:32Robert Mays: I'm really hoping with better interior players, we can see Keon White maintain some of the flashes that we saw from him early in the season. Like I am still a pretty big Keon White believer with better players around him. And so I'm really hoping that Christian Barmore coming back and Milton Williams getting dropped into the mix here can give us a better version of Keon White. Speaking of Milton Williams, my keeping me up at night about the Patriots, it's not that big because I don't think the downside is that significant with some of the deals that they've handed out. I just worry that when we look at some of the investments that they've made in free agency, these are going to be contracts a year from now where none of them are good contracts.

1:50:12Robert Mays: Every single one of them are like, maybe we were a little bit aggressive in doing that. Milton Williams, I think, is a good player in the role that he was in with the Eagles last year. Now you are asking him to be a centerpiece of your defense in a full-time role. And what he got paid in free agency, there's no way, almost, there's almost no possible way unless he's Chris Jones for this to be a positive ROI for the Patriots. And it's okay to do that every once in a while when you're a team that doesn't have a lot of talent and has a shitload of cap space, but eventually you're going to need guys you're getting surplus value on somewhere along the way.

1:50:50Robert Mays: And I think that Millie Williams contract, the deal they handed out to Carlton Davis, even in the moment, that was one where it's like we're handing out contracts to third contract corners when we're multiple years away. Like, how does that deal fit into what the timeline is supposed to be for the Patriots? And I know that they have an astronomical amount of cap space. They have like$56 million, I believe, right now that they'll be able to carry over even though they don't have much cap space next year. So this isn't something that's really going to be preventing you from doing much next offseason if you still want to do it.

1:51:23Robert Mays: But you still shouldn't be in the business of handing out contracts that you're going to be regretting within a calendar year. And I just a little bit of me is worried that that's where we're going to be with some of the deals that the Patriots handed out.

1:51:35Derrik Klassen: The thing that set off the alarm bell for me was remember Milton Williams was Carolina Panther for like 90 seconds. And then the Patriots were like, what's that? all right, we'll give you this much more. And Milton Williams rightly so was like, yeah, nevermind. I'm a Pat. Let's do this 104 million. And when you do that, like when you leapfrog another team and take what was going to be a done deal off the table to get a guy that to me screams, or at least it better scream that you have such a clarity of vision for who this guy is and what he's going to do. And he's going to be our Chris Jones. And that's why it's okay.

1:52:17Derrik Klassen: That Chris Jones is the only defensive tackle in the NFL that makes more money than him. And that's, that's contract size, salary and guarantees. Like he's right below Chris Jones in everything. And if you just did that, cause you had the money to burn. I think that's really stupid. Even if you could afford it, I think that's really stupid where you're just like, well, we got to do something I did or, or not, or you could shore up something else. You could go sign two or three B level edge rushers instead of just spending that money to say that you did. Now, if Milton Williams really is that guy, then we can, that that's great.

1:52:55Derrik Klassen: And I do think he's a good player, but the process alarmed me a little bit.

1:53:00Robert Mays: Yeah. I don't think that there was that level of intentionality to it. I think that was the best player available in free agency. And we have a million in cap space. And I think because free agency has gotten worse, the quality of free agency has gotten worse and teams have gotten smarter. We have forgotten that the history of free agency is just littered with terrible contracts. And I don't think these are going to be terrible necessarily, but this idea of we are paying the 10th best player at his position, like the first best player at his position, that's like 2012 free agent thinking and spending.

1:53:32Robert Mays: And I think there was a lot of that going on for the Patriots. Again, they have a ton of money. We'll see if it actually hampers things that they can do moving forward. But that was the general vibe to the free agency period for the Patriots. It was old school in a bad way. I mean that pejoratively. I said this, you need to find value somewhere in order to offset some of this. And if they, by the end of the season, have a quarterback, a left tackle, a superstar corner and a Kyle Williams that surprises us on rookie deals, that's fine. Like that combination of everything is okay, but you need to hit on draft picks and find value somewhere when you're not getting value on some of these big money players that you're signing.

1:54:15Robert Mays: It's just going to be really hard for those guys to give you again, positive return on those contracts because the contracts are so rich. Dave, what are you watching in the first month of the season for the New New England Patriots.

1:54:29Derrik Klassen: So I talked a lot about Mike Vrabel's attitude with the additions on defense, but Mike Vrabel is not going to call this defense. That would be Terrell Williams, who comes over from Detroit. He was only in Detroit for a year after leaving Mike Vrabel's Tennessee staff with, with the Titans though. He was the D line coach there with Vrabel for several years, but this is his first time calling a defense being the ultimate authority on that side of the ball obviously Vrabel's going to be heavily involved but Vrabel's not a game day play caller so I'm just curious basically to see what it looks like I saw talking to reporters at training camp he very very uh as you might expect he's like we're going to be violent we're going to fly to the ball we're going to do all that like at you know like we've heard from every defensive coordinator ever, but what does that actually look like?

1:55:22Derrik Klassen: What DNA path, I guess, are you going to follow?

1:55:25Robert Mays: I'm curious to see. Uh, me too, because what they did coverage, why they played a decent amount of man when Mike Gray was in Tennessee with Shane Bowen on third down, like they were a pretty heavy man coverage team, but not to the extent that Aaron Glenn's lions teams were. And so how heavily they decide to lean into that, especially because of the corner talent that they have, Derek, that'll be a big question I have as we're watching the early part of this year. Like, what is the identity and how in your face we're putting hands on you? Is it going to be?

1:55:51Dave Helman: And they should, because the Titans also, when Shane Bowen was calling the plays, when Terrell Williams and Mike Favreau were there, they did do also a good amount of the we're sending some pressures. We're doing all the two. A lot of the stuff that we've talked about with the modern defenses, and they did a lot of that. But again, when you have what the third and like ninth best outside cornerbacks in the league together, just play man, like just run together with people like there's no need to do all this other fancy stuff. Like, I think the reason we've seen a lot of that other stuff in the league is there just aren't as many corners who can run with guys and man coverage.

1:56:23Dave Helman: But shit, when you have two of them, just do it. And so that's kind of what I'm hoping for, especially if the pass rush, especially from the interior, is as good as we want it to be and can. Like, if we're playing a bunch of man in the interior is like immediately flushing quarterbacks out of the pocket and we're just going into scramble drill mode, if you just hope that you can like throw a couple of loopers to make sure you go catch the quarterback, that is a good way to have good third down defense.

1:56:45Robert Mays: yeah and i think that we always say it should be an expression of your players those are the players that they have so i'm really looking forward to what this ends up looking like one thing to mention here kyle duggar is apparently on the trade block jordan schultz reported that a little bit earlier today and so we'll see what happens there but uh he may be one of the odd men out if they are kind of changing their identity of what they want to be defensively my answer to this is when i'm watching the first month of the season is just the offensive version of what they've just said, what is a Josh McDaniels offense in 2025?

1:57:14Robert Mays: Like what is Josh McDaniels is gap year that he spent, you know, kind of figuring out what the next version of this would be with him as an offensive coordinator. What is the final expression of that? I don't know the answer. Like, are we going to see a little bit of evolution? Are we going to see a little bit more flexibility? Like what are the ideas that Josh McDaniels is trying to channel in his next go around as an offensive coordinator, Derek? I'm very excited to see what that might mean.

1:57:37Dave Helman: I don't know either. I think there are two things that I definitely want to say about it. First of all, Josh McDaniels is used to being able to put a lot on the quarterback. And we've seen that when he can't do that, whether it's in Denver or with the Las Vegas the last couple of years ago, the offense suffers for it. I think Drake may can handle that, though. Like even in the Alex Van Pelt offense last year, they put some they put a decent amount on his shoulders in terms of being able to see the field pre-snap and get everybody aligned and all that stuff. And so I think putting that on his shoulders, there's going to be some amount of ups and downs because he's a 22 year old second year player.

1:58:10Dave Helman: But I think he can at least handle it. And I think that that unlocks the offense. I also just want to see how much they run Drake May. Like Drake May had five, six hundred rushing yards last year, but almost all of it was scrambles. And that's that's probably going to be part of the offense again. But do they weaponize him a little bit more on third and two or in the red zone or whatever it is? Like that is the part of it that I kind of want to see a little bit more.

1:58:31Robert Mays: Dave in your mind what counts as a successful season for the New England Patriots

1:58:37Derrik Klassen: I thought up a more specific example than the one I told y 'all during pre-production and it's it goes like this at some point in like late October maybe even mid-November yeah they play the Jets in mid-November whatever TV show you prefer to watch whatever morning show that talks about the NFL somebody's gonna look up and go, don't look now, but the New England Patriots have won their last three games. Why isn't anybody talking about this team? That is a successful season for the New England Patriots. If Drake May is good and this team is frisky late in the year and somebody's saying, nobody knows that the Pats have won three out of five and they're above 500 in November, that would be a successful season for the Patriots.

1:59:24Robert Mays: Yeah, this team again is like beyond wins and losses to me. Is Drake May like a dude? in these better circumstances, that's the number one thing for me because I think that will drive exactly what you're talking about, Dave. And then other than that, what sort of building blocks are we looking at with these young players? Are we at a spot by the end of the 2025 season where Drake May feels like a dude and then you've got eight to 10 guys that you feel good about rolling into 2026? May, Barmore, Gonzalez, Keon White, Milton Williams, two or three of the rookies hit, the offensive line gels. And it's like, okay, we have a foundation here.

1:59:58Robert Mays: we have something to move forward with. I think that combined with May taking a significant step and being one of those dudes, that is a successful season for the New England Patriots.

2:00:07Dave Helman: Yeah, it's pretty much the same formula for me. Dig the defense out of whatever gutter they fell into last year. And then Drake May. I think we're so used to seeing the year two jump being the Lamar Jackson MVP, that type of jump. That's probably not going to happen. But I think last year, Drake May was 15th or 16th in QBR. If he has a season that gets him to like 11th and we see a little bit of that progress and we're like, OK, he is one of those guys. That's an easy win, regardless of, again, whether they get into the playoffs or not doesn't really matter to me.

2:00:37Robert Mays: All right. That is all we've got for the AFC East. We will be back with our next division preview tomorrow. I believe it is the NFC South, which I'm looking forward to that one. I know it's kind of a weird division, but I'm excited to talk about the Panthers. I'm excited to talk about the Falcons. And, you know, this is a Bucs team that has been very good. We won't mention the Saints. I think that's probably the outlier here and the teams we're looking forward to chatting about. But a lot of stuff to get to tomorrow. Very excited about that. Thank you guys for sticking with us. We appreciate it.

2:01:08Robert Mays: We'll talk to you tomorrow.

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