2025 AFC West preview

0:00Derrik Klassen: With the Discover Cash Back Card, it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5 % cash back at different categories each quarter on up to$1 ,500 in purchases. That's 5 % cash back at different places each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash 5 for details. There's something about fall that makes you want to slow everything down. Cooler mornings, longer evenings, a home that feels like it's exhaling. Pura fills every home with the sense of fall automatically, so your whole home feels like autumn the moment you walk in.

0:43Derrik Klassen: Right now, get a free diffuser plus 20 % off select curated sets. Visit Pura.com to bring the season home.

0:57Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. The AFC West preview is here. We had a really good time today. Even the Raiders are just weirdly intriguing based on some of the moves they made this offseason. The AFC West has a slightly different feel to it on the eve of the 2025 season than it did on the eve of the 2024 season. And I think you can feel that in the conversations that I had with Dave Hellman and Derek Klassen previewing this division. So let's get to our AFC West preview right now.

1:31Robert Mays: It's AFC West day on the athletic football show. Derek, this is a much more interesting conversation this time this year than it was at this time last year when it was the Chiefs and everybody else. Now we got three returning playoff teams for the AFC West. It's a brave new world here. It's a new day.

1:50Dave Helman: It's an extremely new day. Like this is, I mean, the Chiefs are still the Chiefs, so they're going to be the, you know, kings of the of the division. But like this is the first time in a while I feel like multiple teams can actually come at their head, which is an incredibly exciting time to be in because last year or this time last year, I don't think anyone likes Bo Nix. And we didn't know if Sean Payton was any good at the job anymore. Chargers, we just thought the roster wasn't good enough. And the Raiders were the Raiders. So, I mean, it was just not a fun division this time last year.

2:16Robert Mays: I might be more interested in the Raiders than any of the other teams in this division, which I think says a lot about the Raiders. But and that doesn't even that's not even to besmirch the other teams. Like I think the Broncos are extremely exciting right now. Dave, obviously, the Chargers made the playoffs last year. But the fact that the Raiders are intriguing in a division where we have these three playoff teams coming back, the AFC West has not been in a position like this. And I can't remember how long because the Raiders have never been in a position like this. I can't remember how long.

2:45Derrik Klassen: okay i hate to be a contrarian who am i kidding i love to be a contrarian but i do i want to bring this up and i'm so glad you framed it that way we did this whole song and dance with the afc west in 2022 because the broncos traded for russ and davante adams joined the division and everybody was all high on it and the chiefs did their chiefs thing and i i feel better about the division this year than I did then. And I do think this is an intriguing division, but I just want to make it clear for the record. I think Kansas city still runs this thing and I don't want to get out ahead of myself by acting like this is a wide open division.

3:25Derrik Klassen: I don't think that's true.

3:26Dave Helman: I Nathaniel Hackett and Josh McDaniels is a little bit different to me than Pete Carroll and Sean Payton.

3:34Derrik Klassen: That's fair. All I'm saying is we did this whole thing where the AFC West was supposed to be a juggernaut and it wasn't a juggernaut. And even if it's more even now, which I do think is true, I still think there's levels to this. Like I still think of the chief says several steps above the other three teams.

3:50Robert Mays: I'm not disputing any of that. I just think the overall competency level at both the head coach and quarterback position for the other three teams are at a place. They have not been for a very long time. The four head coaches in this division, three of them have won super bowls and one of them has been to the super bowl as a head coach. like we're in a slightly different place even if this is still the Chiefs thing to win so let's get to those Kansas City Chiefs right now for each of these teams as part of our division previews we are doing their offseason in 60 seconds just as a quick little refresh for everybody who might have missed any of these transactions extended Trey Smith offensive guard four years 94 million 70 guaranteed George Karloftis defensive end four years 88 million 62 guaranteed Nick Bolton linebacker three years 45 million 30 guaranteed brought in offensive tackle Jalen Moore in free agency two years 30 million 21 guaranteed might not need him anymore Christian Fulton the cornerback two years 20 million 15 guaranteed brought back Hollywood Brown one year 7 million just traded for Derek Nadi from the Jets smaller deals for Charles Menehu Elijah Mitchell and Jerry Tillery in the draft Josh Simmons offensive tackle 32nd overall defensive tackle Omar Norman Lott second overall 63rd second round 63rd overall edge Ashton Galati, third round, 66th overall.

5:05Robert Mays: Cornerback Noel Williams, third round, 85th overall. Wide receiver Jalen Royals, fourth round, 133rd overall. In free agency slash the trademark, I lost Joe Tooney, Deshaun Wharton, Justin Reed, Justin Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Sky Moore. For each of these teams, we are kicking this off with what we are most excited to watch in 2025. Derek, what are you most excited to watch with the Kansas City Chiefs this season?

5:30Dave Helman: hell or high water i think the deep ball is coming back to kansas city like i the way that patrick mahomes keeps talking about it the way that they've built the roster over the past have tried to build the roster over the past couple of years with getting guys like you know drafting xavier worthy and stuff like that and now bring in uh josh simmons who we'll talk about a little bit later i think like the issue with them not being able to throw deep was twofold right it was you didn't have tyree kill and stuff anymore and that was certainly part of it but they also couldn't, I think from the tackles perspective, protect for a lot of the deep stuff the way that they wanted to.

6:00Dave Helman: So the only way that they could get to it was these like eight man protection, throw the ball downfield, and it just wasn't good enough. I think with the way the roster is constructed now, the way that Patrick Mahomes keeps itching to throw the deep ball again, this shit's coming back.

6:13Robert Mays: Just the overall offense in general, Dave, I think collectively, that's what we are most excited to watch. Like this version of the Chiefs offense, the best quarterback in the world, according to a lot of people still with a fuller arsenal at both the offensive line and at the pest catching spots than we have seen over the last couple of years. That is what I am excited to watch with this year's version of the Chiefs.

6:32Derrik Klassen: I'm glad you framed it the way that you did, because and I try not to be susceptible to summertime rage bait, but you can only take so much. Right. But the number of people that are trying to do this Patrick Mahomes has fallen off thing really got to me this year. Like the number of people who have Patrick Mahomes like third or worst in their quarterback tiers or hierarchy or whatever you want to call it is deeply insulting to me. And I am excited to see Patrick Mahomes back with just the offense that he was supposed to have. Basically, that's the thing that really pisses me off about the 2024 Chiefs.

7:13Derrik Klassen: I feel like the NFL community just memory hold what happened to them. I feel like when we talk about the Chiefs, maybe it's because Rasheed Rice and the looming suspension for so long, he played 155 snaps for this team. He was out for the year before the calendar even flipped to October. Hollywood Brown came back for the playoffs, yes. He played 163 snaps. I feel like the fact that he was there for the big playoff games make people forget that he wasn't part of this team. Isaiah Pacheco played less than 300 snaps for the Chiefs. They had a rotating door of bad options at left tackle. And despite all of that, they played in the fricking super bowl.

7:54Derrik Klassen: In what world are we no longer impressed with Patrick Mahomes? It is insane. And I'm just excited. I don't think this is the best offense in the NFL. I don't think Patrick Mahomes is up. Weapons are as good as some other quarterbacks in the league, but this group of players with better health, I think we will see the Patrick Mahomes. we remember. Like the idea that he's fallen off is not so.

8:18Robert Mays: I believe that it could be the best offense in the NFL. Like I think there is a path for them to be the best offense in the NFL. If Rasheed Rice was not going to be suspended for like five or six games, and obviously there's still a little bit of ambiguity about how that's going to go. But if Rasheed Rice was healthy for most of the season with the offensive line improvements, I think there would be a path for this team to be the best offense in the league. They're not going to be ever explosive on the ground with this version of Isaiah Pacheco. Like that's just not going to happen. I know he was hurt last year.

8:44Robert Mays: But if you look at their lack of explosive plays, a good chunk of that is that they had zero explosive runs. This team was 30th in explosive run rate last year per True Media. Only the Rams and the Raiders had fewer explosive runs on a rate basis than the Chiefs. So that part of it, it's still probably not going to be an explosive run game, even if their run game has been consistently efficient. The explosive passes, I do think are going to be back this year, like Derek said, for a couple of different reasons. The protection is just such an important part of all of this. And even if Josh Simmons takes a little bit to get his feet wet at left tackle, having Mahomes just feel a little bit more secure.

9:19Robert Mays: And we've talked about this all summer, Derek, he is more concerned with edge pressure than he is with interior pressure as a quarterback. It affects him more. And that's not something we typically ascribe to elite quarterbacks. Typically we do the opposite, but with him specifically, I think that is what we have come to learn. I think that's what the chiefs have come to learn. And that's why they overextended themselves to go We'll get Jalen Moore plus drafting a guy in the first round to make sure we're not around with this anymore. Like we need to get this figured out because then the rest of it will come into view.

9:49Robert Mays: And I think the other part of this is that if you move Rasheed Rice back into the lineup, you move Xavier Worthy back into a role where you can be explosive down the field. I was looking at the numbers on this today when Rasheed Rice was in the lineup early in the season and on the field, which I know is super early. So there's a chance that worthy's role might've changed anyway over the course of the year. But if you look at the numbers, 50 % of his routes with Rasheed Rice on the field were vertical routes goes post corners without Rasheed Rice in the field that goes to 33%. So I think he's going to be back in that role where he's going to be a vertical downfield presence.

10:25Robert Mays: The hit rate on throws to him has to be better this year, just based on sheer luck than it was last year. and Rasheed Rice, even if it wasn't down the field plays, was unbelievably explosive last year. I was looking up the rate numbers for wide receivers, just looking at something else. I was actually looking at Travis Kelsey's numbers and it was just staggering to see what Rasheed Rice was doing before he got hurt last year. He was number one in the NFL in those three games. It was really 3.1 games in first downs per route run. If you extended over the whole season, his yards per route run number would have been second in the league behind only Puka Nakua.

11:03Robert Mays: Losing this guy was a huge, huge deal, and he makes everything else make more sense. So I'm with you, Dave. Like, with even a slight uptick in left tackle play, plus those receivers coming back, even if Rice misses a decent chunk of games, I think we might see a version of this Chiefs offense that we have not seen for a while, Derek.

11:20Dave Helman: I think the Rasheed Rice thing is like, because he's not Tyreek Hill, right? Like, it's a different skill set. Rice is a little bit better underneath. He's tougher. He's, you know, able to like fight through contact in a way that Hill couldn't always. Whereas Hill was your downfield guy. It's also that like I think because Rasheed Rice didn't really come on to the end of his rookie year, he was not like a super high draft pick. There's just like this like he doesn't get quite the same shine as some of these other guys. But yeah, when he's in the offense, the last like 10 games that he's played for the Chiefs have been incredible.

11:51Dave Helman: Like he's truly one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. And so to just get that guy back and I think to more importantly, like you said, knock the other guys down a role, I think that goes like a really long way, especially for Worthy, like Worthy cannot be a volume receiver. Like that's just not what you drafted him to be. It's not what he's he's built to be. And so the fact that he gets to be knocked down and just be like, I don't know, be be like Ted Ginn. Like if he can just do that, like I know that that doesn't sound like that flashy for a first round pick, but like if he can be that and Rice is as good as he is, then like that's more than enough for the Chiefs to be the best offense in the league again.

12:25Robert Mays: I think we'll see Worthy being used in some of the same ways he was used in the back half of last season, like in the red zone, right? Like they have all that eye candy where they're putting guys in motion. I think some of that horizontal stretch, you will still see it because they can weaponize his speed that way. But I think some of the schemed underneath touches and using him as a space player in the way that they had to because no one else had anything approaching that skill set on the roster. I think that will go away as long as they have Rasheed Rice. The entire vision for the offense last year was Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy creating space for the underneath receivers.

12:58Robert Mays: We got one game of it and it looked incredible against the Ravens in week one. I know the Ravens were a mess, but I still am sort of attaching myself to that vision of the Chiefs offense. And I do believe there is a chance we get something closer to that this year. Let's talk about these swing points for the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs. the areas where this team and their season could pivot this year. Derek, what do you got for me?

13:24Dave Helman: It's got to be the first round left tackle. Like if Josh Simmons is good enough, this team, that is one of the other big reasons that this team could be really good. Because again, like I said, part of the reason that they could not throw down the field last year was that they did not feel like they could protect, especially in like drop back scenarios. Because if we can think back to like the best versions of the chiefs offense in 2019, 2020, whatever it was, they could throw vertically without having to like be in these heavier sets and go play action and all that stuff they could just all right five out in the route and and Pat's just gonna chuck it they have not been able to do that I would say the last two years but especially last year and if Simmons can at least go from I don't know the Chiefs having like tackle 31 last year to like offensive tackle 21 like that goes a really long way and Patrick Mahomes being comfortable back there having the time to find guys like Worthy and Rice down the field and if they can tap into that a little bit I think that's how we go from oh the Chiefs found a way to be the seventh best offense again versus oh shit they're lighting the world on fire

14:22Robert Mays: and he's looked pretty good in the preseason so far Dave I mean some of the flashes that we've seen from him Jeff Schwartz and Mitchell Schwartz both of them thank God both of them are so invested in the Chiefs we're getting like deep niche Chiefs offensive line content from the preseason for free the Schwartz brothers Jeff pointing out a lot of the stuff he saw from Josh Simmons and Kings Sumatai in that last preseason game that the Chiefs played. You know, Simmons has like little quirks in pass protection. Like sometimes he gets a little bit overextended, gets a little bit out over his knees, stuff like that.

14:52Robert Mays: But I think overall what you saw from him over the past month or so and everything we've heard about him from training camp is very promising. I'm sure he'll take his lump the same way any rookie would, but the early returns, I think you can feel pretty good about.

15:05Derrik Klassen: It is a funny tidbit that left tackle was such a dumpster fire that it completely overshadows the loss of one of the best guards of his generation in Joe Tooney. You trade him to Chicago, and that is the second storyline compared to solving left tackle, which I think that's totally fair. And, you know, if Josh Simmons is even decent, then whether it's Kingsley Suamataia or if Mike Caliendo gets back in there the way that he did at the tail end of the season, you feel good about whoever's playing between Creed Humphrey and a serviceable left tackle. So, like, I think it makes sense. But I think it's also worth pointing out Joe Tooney, who helped them overcome the tackle problem long enough to get to the Super Bowl.

15:49Derrik Klassen: That is a pretty big loss, even if if it's not the marquee position that left tackle is.

15:54Robert Mays: There is no doubt. But I think there are two things to weigh there. One, again, I think tackle is a little bit more of an issue for him than guard is when it comes to if you're going to have a problem somewhere. And the other part is Sumatai has looked OK. Hey, like in the preseason, especially in the run game, I think that he's had some really nice moments for somebody transitioning inside where the game happens a little bit quicker. I mean, there were a couple of high level moments that he had in that Bears preseason game that I think can really give you a little bit of hope that this version of the experiment with kicking him inside and that being your best five can actually work for this team.

16:28Dave Helman: So that's the part of it that I'm also really excited for. Obviously, it's for the pass protection and letting Mahomes do what he does. but I think part of why the run game has lacked explosives I mean one it is partly the backs right like they're just not built to do that but also so much of their run game is just especially last year is like so much attached to RPOs you're just not going to be explosive with RPOs because like the way you get explosives in the run game is like finding angles displacing people with motion and certain stuff like that when you're just attaching stuff to RPOs and trying to get numbers count you can be efficient and they were really efficient but you're probably not going to be explosive.

17:00Dave Helman: And so if they have to lean on less of that this year, because Simmons and Sue Matai can actually move people a little bit, I think that again could open up some stuff for them.

17:08Robert Mays: It's a great point because there was a moment a couple of years ago where they were able to really run the ball downhill on their terms. And I think we've just seen a little bit less of that over the next last couple of years. My swing forward for the chiefs is just how the secondary ends up shaking out. You know, they've kind of retooled that spot a little bit. They went out and drafted no Williams. They're just healthier at that other outside corner spot. Obviously, that was such a nightmare for them over the course of last season when they were trying to figure out where to play Trent McDuffie because they were dealing with some of those injuries.

17:36Robert Mays: Now, you know, you're back with a full stable of guys there. And it feels so far throughout training camp in the preseason like it's going to be Trent McDuffie inside outside again with Jamari Connor going down and being that nickel and sort of that big nickel three safety look that they have. And I just don't know how I feel about that. I think more and more, more and more teams are doing this where they're putting a third safety in that spot in order to kind of insulate yourself against like 12 personnel runs and things like that. I mean, we're, we've seen a bunch of it. We're going to see even more of it this year.

18:11Robert Mays: I can't tell you how many times that idea of like a bigger nickel defender and the value of it came up in conversation with coaches over the last month, you know, in the, within San in Los Angeles, Derwin James is going to be that guy. You know, we know about Kyle Hamilton. There's so many of them. And so now there it seems like they're going to roll with Shamari Connor in that spot again. I just feel like they struggled at times because of that last year. And so if you have the outside corner bodies to move McDuffie back in there, there's still part of me, Derek, that believes that might be the best collection of DBs that the Chiefs could put on the field.

18:45Dave Helman: Yeah, like if they think Connor at the nickel is better than whoever they have at the other outside cornerback to spot fine. I guess I get it. But like the best possible version of the secondary has McDuffie playing the nickel because he is a like field changing player when he is at the new he like damn near won them a Super Bowl when he was playing in the nickel. And he's like a good player outside, but he's like a B level corner outside, maybe like B plus. And that again, that's like nice, but he is a truly difference making player from the nickel. And I think this is all especially important because like I don't trust the safeties as much as I did now, as opposed to when Justin Reed was there and I think these younger guys are fine but they're not Justin Reed where like Justin Reed was also like a difference making player and so if Justin Reed is no longer in the spine of your of your secondary and now McDuffie again is going to have to play outside instead of more towards the middle I just feels like the middle of the defense is like a little bit iffy

19:39Derrik Klassen: to me that's a note that I wanted to make when we were looking at this which is I think it's interesting the difference between how they approached major losses at safety like as soon as they decided Tyron Matthew wasn't going to be part of their plans, like they identified Justin Reed immediately and they were willing to spend a premium to bring him on. And it worked out really well. I get it. You're living in a different world when Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones and some of these other guys are making a ton of money. The interior of your offensive line is accounting for a huge percentage of your salary cap, but they, they did not do that when Justin Reed left, like they're trusting in-house guys that they've drafted and developed to step into that role.

20:20Derrik Klassen: I wonder if that's because they like these guys that much better or just because financially you have to live that way with the way your roster is right now. But yeah, I mean, Justin Reed, the ultimate cleanup guy, like you could always count on him to clean up your mess. And I don't feel as confident about that as I did before.

20:39Robert Mays: Jaden Hicks last year, who they drafted, I believe in the fourth round played 330 snaps. I mean, And that's going to be at least double if he ends up becoming the third safety, let alone if he's the guy they're going to have those two safety looks and Shamari Conner comes off the field. So how they end up shaking out those five 60 B spots over the course of the year and what the combination ends up looking like. It's just a front of mind for me because I do think it was one of the things to really consider about how that Chiefs team was going to rise and fall over the back half of last season.

21:09Robert Mays: let's talk about what's keeping us up at night with the 2025 Kansas city chiefs. Dave lay it on me. What is keeping you up at night about this chiefs team?

21:18Derrik Klassen: You kind of mentioned this at the top. I won't repeat all the stats, but I'm, I'm rooting like hell for Isaiah Pacheco to stay healthy this year. Cause Hey, he's a super fun player to quote my guy, Jordan Lewis. He's the one that said Isaiah Pacheco runs like he bites people. Like he's just fun to watch. but on top of that don't make me watch what this run game looked like without him last year don't make me do that again i mean kareem hunt 11 explosive rushes on 200 carries last year it's the same number of explosive runs as any any guy that ran for half as many yards like backs that had 85 carries on the year had 11 explosive runs dead last in yards after contact kansas city Kareem hunt 19th and success rate.

22:06Derrik Klassen: I did like the whole, all season long from the time Pacheco got hurt. I was like, I understand that you can't just ask my homes to drop back 50 times, but every handoff just feels like a waste of everyone's time and energy. Like this is so boring. It's not going anywhere. 5.5 % explosive run rate. So I lose sleep thinking about having to watch 12 games of that. So I want Pacheco to stay healthy. Brashard Smith is there now, but I haven't heard anything coming out of camp that makes me think that I should get excited about that. Maybe as the season goes along, that'll change. So for the time being, I just really want to see Pacheco do his thing and, and nobody else.

22:49Robert Mays: And Brashard Smith is kind of an undersized, more explosive piece as far as I understand. He's not like a true between the tackles. He's like a pass catching sort of back. Yeah. I think part of me is a little bit sad that the Clyde Edwards-Alaire thing worked out the way that it did, because I think it's going to scare the Chiefs off from ever really investing in a running back again. And I kind of wish this offense would have like a real dude at running back. the way that this draft went specifically they did exactly what they should have done when it comes to addressing positions of need like going out and getting a left tackle and then figuring out interior and edge depth based on what that group looked like last year we'll get to that in a second plus trying to restock the cupboard at corner because a lot of those guys are hitting free agency after this year correct approach i have no criticisms whatsoever but there's a little part of me that was like man it'd be cool to just have a really good running back as part of this offense again.

23:43Dave Helman: I really need it really badly, man. Like they, the Clyde Edwards, the layer thing sucks so bad too. Cause they were on the right track, I think with running back. And then Jonathan Taylor, he's like 10 picks later. And it's like, man, you almost had it right there. You almost had the right thing.

23:57Derrik Klassen: I thought Clyde was designed for that offense. It was very disillusioning.

24:01Robert Mays: That's one of those heat check moments for everybody involved. I think my homes is part of that pick that that team was just riding real high at that point. Every once in a while you fly a little bit too close to the sun. What's keeping me up at night about the Chiefs, we just kind of pointed at it. The defensive line pieces beyond Chris Jones and Karl Loftus, that was quietly one of the biggest issues that this team had by the end of last year. When you watch them in the playoffs and you watch them, especially in the Super Bowl, the lack of pressure and disruption period from that group really started to show up.

24:32Robert Mays: And then when you combine that with some of the issues that they were having a corner, everything starts to compound a little bit. This team finished 30th in pressure rate when bringing four last year. The only teams who had a lower pressure rate according to NextGen than the Kansas City Chiefs when bringing four pass rushers last year were the Patriots and the Panthers.

24:51Dave Helman: Who just spent a shit ton of money to fix their pass rush. Both of them.

24:55Robert Mays: Both of them. And the Chiefs, to their credit, they did spend draft capital to try to fix this. They drafted a defense tackle in the second round. They drafted Galati in the third round. So I understand that they they think this is a problem, but you got two day two picks. That's really all you brought in to try to make this better. See if a men who another you're further removed from the injury, what that looks like. But for the most part, this is not a group outside of those two highly paid guys that really scares you, Derek. And I think that really showed up last year when this team wasn't bringing extra bodies as they try to get after the quarterback.

25:28Dave Helman: and this to me has like I think over the last couple of years as the Chiefs have realized they need to restock the offense the defense has taken has had to take in a backseat again whereas like I think three years ago it was kind of the opposite the the Chiefs are now but like the way that this all spells out to me is the Chiefs for a long time had Mike Dana as like the perfect edge three or four who was like coming off the bench edge setter all this stuff he's starting again probably that's like when when your depth piece for like three four years becomes the starter you clearly have not been able to restock the cupboard the way that you wanted so maybe Galati like steps up I kind of get him like I enjoy him as like a he actually reminds me a lot of George Karloftis but it's just like how quickly can he really get up to speed so again maybe it also concerns me a little bit that they let Derek Nadi go and then immediately this offseason we're like we need him back we have to trade for him which I think is kind of that kind of tells you all you need to know probably about the rest of the D tackle room part of the problem here is that

26:25Robert Mays: But FAU just never turned into the guy they wanted. And now he's on IR. So the fact that that really never developed and you don't have that many first round picks to throw around, burning one on a pass rusher who really has not been impactful for you whatsoever. I think you're starting to feel the effects of that a little bit as they try to rebuild this group in kind of more modest ways. What we're watching over the first month of the season. We're doing this for every team. What are you going to for the Chiefs, Derek?

26:53Dave Helman: For me, it's just in two ways. What are we getting out of Rishi Rice? Like, first of all, he's coming off of the injury, right? And so I think when you have a player who his whole game was like built on being really explosive, especially underneath, you're just like not worry. But I do wonder, like, how much of that is he going to be able to tap into immediately, especially early on in the season? And then by the end of the first month, I think we should have an answer on like, is he going to be suspended? For how long is he going to be suspended? When is he going to come back? All that stuff.

27:21Dave Helman: So there's just, we're going to learn, I think a lot about Rishi Rice by the end of September.

27:27Robert Mays: This is funny because I had all the other pass catchers and what version of them we get over the first month of the season. We talked about Xavier Worthy a little bit. Again, I'm curious what Xavier Worthy's usage is going to look like when Rishi Rice is back and where along the late season usage and the early season usage he falls and what they want out of him this year. But the other guy for me that I'm looking at, and I know this seems kind of silly. I want to know what version of Travis Kelsey that we're getting the newly engaged Travis Kelsey. Like, are we going to get the 2024 version of Travis Kelsey again when it just seemed like he was pretty cooked compared to even what he was in 2023?

28:04Robert Mays: The numbers are pretty jarring when you look at them. Last season among tight ends with at least 25 targets, Kelsey was 20th in yards per route run 20th. He was 16 in first downs per route. You compare that to 2023. 23, he was 22nd among all players in first downs per route run. And last year he was 62nd when you include wide receivers, it was a huge drop off in his production from 23 to 24. And I think he's been open about that. Like he just wasn't in good enough shape last year. And it was a fall off that I think he's trying to account for whether or not he still has enough in the tank to do that, I think is a worthwhile question.

28:44Robert Mays: Like if you get something closer to 23 version of Kelsey and you get the Rasheed Rice that you had at the end of last season. But when we saw them in those three games, I think that collectively that is the sort of group they have not had on this team in a very long time.

28:59Derrik Klassen: If you started watching football, when Taylor Swift showed up at that chiefs bears game, and that's all you knew about the NFL, you would be able to tell that Travis Kelsey looked washed last year. Like that's how apparent it was. It was shocking. uh so like even it's not just like oh incrementally of course as you get older you you get less explosive you lose you lose a little bit no it was it was crazy and i i can't imagine it'll be that bad again i like and i'm not saying he'll go back to being like the 2018 19 version of himself but it i think it's got to be better than it was last year you know what's

29:41Robert Mays: really good i think for the chiefs here is that when you're moving toward your wedding dave you know this. I mean, he's now incentivized to be in great shape. I mean, there are a few better motivators than I have a wedding in like a year. I got to make sure I'm fitting in that tux and looking how I want to in pictures. So this is a good thing.

29:57Derrik Klassen: I think I have something in common with Travis Kelsey. Amazing. That's so cool. I mean, that, that, those engagement photos, he's got to look decent for those.

30:05Robert Mays: And so I assume there's a little bit of extra motivation here for him to keep things wedding ready.

30:10Dave Helman: Yeah. Especially next to the biggest pop star in the world, you know, you want to look good.

30:14Robert Mays: Well, unfortunately that didn't help over the last like two years, but we're not going to talk about that. What is success for the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs? Derek, what do you got for me?

30:25Dave Helman: I mean, I know that this is unfair, but I'm sorry. This is the bar when you have Patrick Mahomes go to the Superbowl. Like it's just, it's the same standard I would have held like Tom Brady too. And I think that he is this version of that. So like go to the Superbowl.

30:37Robert Mays: It seems crazy, but I don't think it's wrong.

30:40Dave Helman: It's like, it probably is a little bit overboard but like is it really they're the in the context in the context of where the

30:48Derrik Klassen: chiefs have been i don't think it's completely fair like go to a fourth straight super bowl or your failures i mean that doesn't seem a little harsh what i'm learning is that i'm just a much

30:58Dave Helman: more forgiving greater than derrick is oh yeah i'm like if this is the team you guys think you built prove it to me and a lot of people are gonna fall short unfortunately i think if they

31:10Robert Mays: make it back to the AFC championship game. I don't think that is a failure of a season. I think that is a successful season for the chiefs, despite the standard that they have set for themselves.

31:20Dave Helman: I can live with that, but I, I will still be expecting him in the super bowl.

31:24Derrik Klassen: I don't want to continue to, I think we can take a beat on the Brady mom's comparisons after this most recent super bowl. We can at least wait a little while before we do it again. But I was just curious. I wanted to go back and look at Brady's seasons over the totality of his career from 2011 to 2018. The Patriots played in the AFC championship game for eight straight years. The chiefs are currently sitting on seven. So to match that accomplishment that Tom Brady had and play in the AFC title game for eight years. And by the way, they've just never missed the AFC title game when my homes has been the starter.

32:02Derrik Klassen: So nobody wants to be the first team to fall short of that goal. So I think Super Bowl is one step too far, but if they're playing in the AFC title game, I think that works.

32:12Robert Mays: We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back with the

32:16Derrik Klassen: Los Angeles Chargers. You know that hoodie you can't stop reaching for? The one that feels like a second skin, soft, warm, and somehow makes you feel a little more grounded? I found it. And trust me, it's not what you expect. It's called PAKA, spelled P-A-K-A. And if you're tired of hoodies that stretch out, pill, or feel heavy, this is the upgrade you've been waiting for. Paca makes outdoor and lifestyle apparel from Alpaca Fiber, one of the world's most sustainable natural fibers. Their best-selling hoodie is softer than cashmere, warmer than wool, and breathable. This hoodie is built for real life, thermoregulating, odor-resistant, durable, and made to last.

32:51Derrik Klassen: Each one is made start to finish in Peru and features an Inca ID that's hand-woven by artisans, honoring generations of knowledge and traditions and connecting you closer to where your clothing comes from. Over 250 ,000 people have already picked up the pack of hoodie. What makes it even better? It really is like a second skin. So comfortable, so warm, exactly what you're looking for in a hoodie. You know, it's funny, as a sports podcaster, I am able to have a relatively casual wardrobe. When I go into the office a few days ago, my wife and I were both getting ready to go for work, and she looked me up and down and was like, that's for the office?

33:24Derrik Klassen: And I'm like, yeah, it is. And guess what? It was the pack of hoodie that I was wearing. You can wear it to work, can wear it to a baseball game, a football game, can wear it to your kids games. You can wear it outside, inside, whatever the case might be. Pack a hoodie is there for you. If you've been thinking about leveling up your hoodie game, this is your sign to do it. To grab your pack a hoodie, go to www.packaapparel.com. That's www.pakaapparel.com. Wrapping my arms around my finances has only gotten trickier as I've gotten older. Might not seem like that's the way it's supposed to go, but that is indeed the way it is.

34:01Derrik Klassen: Paying a mortgage, paying your bills, paying for daycare, paying for kids activities. It just gets a little trickier and trickier as you get older and as your life gets fuller. And even though all that is true, Monarch, the personal finance app that tracks everything, accounts, investments, saving goals and spending can make your financial picture as clear as it's ever been. So yeah, saving up for a trip. And when did I know that we were going to be able to go ahead and book that? When I hit a savings goal that Monarch helped me identify. Love how easy it is to use. Love how everything is contained and shown to you in one spot.

34:36Derrik Klassen: Really like to be able to be organized with these sorts of things. Monarch certainly makes that easy to do. Most apps only tell you what you've already spent. Monarch helps set goals, map out big purchases, and see if you're actually on track before it's too late to adjust. You can ask Monarch's AI assistant anything about your finances, like how much did I spend on travel last summer or can I afford a vacation without touching my savings? Spot things you wouldn't think to look for with AI insights. Has your spending gone up or is it just inflation? Get a heads up on what's happening with your money with the AI Weekly Recap.

35:07Derrik Klassen: It flags spending spikes, net worth shifts, and upcoming expenses. Write your own money story with Monarch. Use code athleticfootball at monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch core half off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at monarch.com with code athletic football. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. You've heard me talk about BetterHelp for a long time, but I don't know that we've ever actually talked about how much people love this service when they use it. You can check it out yourself at betterhelp.com slash reviews to see amazing customer reviews in real time. The reviews are updated every day with hundreds of people saying how much they love BetterHelp and how helpful it's been to them.

35:43Derrik Klassen: Please visit betterhelp.com slash reviews to see for yourself. BetterHelp has an average live therapy session rating of 4.9 out of 5 based on over 1.7 million client session reviews. The feedback from people who have actually used the service speaks for itself. More than 6 million people have used BetterHelp globally. The consistent feedback from real users makes it easy to see why so many people continue to choose BetterHelp. BetterHelp therapists have at least 3 years and 1 ,000 hours of hands-on experience. They also hold all required education, training, and certifications across a range of mental health specialties.

36:15Derrik Klassen: BetterHelp makes it easy to get started, answer a few questions, get matched with a therapist based on your needs, and switch therapists at any time if it's not the right fit. See the reviews, see what stands out, and see if BetterHelp is right for you. Visit BetterHelp.com slash Mays. That's BetterHelp.com slash Mays.

36:40Robert Mays: Our preview for the 2025 Chargers. They're off season in 60 seconds. Extended Rashawn Slater, four years,$114 million,$92 million guaranteed. He is now after the season. Brought back Cleo Mack, one year,$18 million. Retained Elijah Molden at safety, three years,$18.5 million. Brought$13 million guaranteed. Signed Mekhi Becton, offensive guard, two years,$20 million,$7 million guaranteed in free agency. Brought in Dante Jackson, the cornerback, two years,$13 million,$7 million guaranteed. Brought back Keenan Allen, one year,$3 million. Small deals for Bradley Bozeman, Najee Harris, Tyeer Tartt, and Mike Williams, who retired.

37:11Robert Mays: notable draft picks. I'm Marian Hampton, 22nd overall at running back wide receiver, Trey Harris, second round, 55th overall defensive tackle, Jamari Caldwell, third round, 86th overall losses in free agency include Joey Bosa, Christian Fulton, Josh Palmer, and Puna Ford. Derek, what are you excited about watching with the 2025 Los Angeles chargers?

37:35Dave Helman: I'm pretty excited about the idea that Oh, Marian Hampton might be like one of those guys. Like he just looks like he is. I know the step off the bus team is like can be overrated sometimes, but you just look at the way O'Marrion Hampton is built and you're like, oh, my God, that guy is going to be one of the best running backs in the NFL. And then like I really loved what he was in college, like his patience, his footwork for a guy, his size. He's super explosive and he's not just a runner like he's a good pass protector. He's a good pass catcher like he can do everything for them. And so I think we came into this year a little bit like, OK, is he going to split time with Najee Harris, all this stuff?

38:10Dave Helman: Because Greg Roman kind of loves to do that, even if he has a guy. I don't know how much Najee Harris is going to play this year. And so it's pretty much just so Marion Hampton and a bunch of guys. There's a chance that Hampton gets like three hundred fifty touches and is awesome. And I'm excited to see that.

38:25Robert Mays: Dave is the resident college football watcher among this group. How excited are you to watch Marion Hampton as an NFL player?

38:33Derrik Klassen: I'm so excited, Robert. And it's, it fits in two ways. Number one, like number one, college football ties into this in the bigger picture too. Cause where's Jim Harbaugh coming from? And I just imagine, I know he was, I know he's been in the NFL for a year now, but still I just imagined Jim Harbaugh, the Michigan man looking out on this NFL 11 personnel. Nickel is the new base world with just utter disgust. And I think Jim Harbaugh is like, we're going to put nine men on the line. We're going to pound the rock. And what running back is going to help us do that the best. And Omari and Hampton visualizes that perfectly for the LA chargers.

39:16Derrik Klassen: The stat, the stat that made me fall in love with this guy the most is just that he led the ACC last year after Drake may left. Like it's one thing to lead the ACC in rushing when your quarterback's a top five pick. he's the only guy that got drafted off North Carolina last year and he led the ACC like he is a workhorse in every sense of the word he averaged 21 carries per game last year he went over 100 yards in eight of his 12 like he is a bell cow in in a world where there just aren't that many coming out of college anymore and I think Jim Harbaugh intends to use him that way I kind of feel like the Chargers looked at their offensive line and they were like well if we can't fix this completely in one off season, who can help us offset that the most?

40:02Derrik Klassen: And I think it's Amari and Hampton.

40:04Robert Mays: We're going to talk about that plan here in a little bit, because I understand that that's the team they want to be this. Like, we're going to have all these big bodies. We're going to push you around. We're going to grind you down. That is not what happened last year. And so we're going to see how much Amari and Hampton can change that formula because there are not a lot of offensive line changes that might lead to that. But I don't want to spoil that conversation because that is coming a little bit later. What I'm excited about with this Chargers team is the O'Marrion Hampton part is definitely included here.

40:33Robert Mays: I'm just excited to watch the young group of skill position players that they are starting to build around Justin Herbert. Some of these things are theoretical, even Hampton, but you combine that with Trey Harris coming into the building, Keandre Lambert Smith, who they drafted, I believe in the fifth round, who's had some really nice moments in the preseason and I think can be like a vertical down the field potential target for them. And Trey Harris is there. They've been using him in ways that he was a vertical player in college, like if very much like a vertical down the field type option when he was at Ole Miss, he's they've used him in a slightly more varied way this preseason.

41:06Robert Mays: So I think Keandre Lambert Smith is going to kind of be that, like, take the top off down the sideline vertical shots type guy. I'm just curious how all of that shakes out. Like, do one of those guys pop? And do we start to see just a more well-rounded group of pass catchers because last year was really just lad mcconkey i'm very excited to watch round two of lad mcconkey as well he was incredible last season and if you look at the numbers that he was putting up last year it's it's kind of ridiculous you know given some of the volume he had the efficiency that he was still able to maintain when you look at it with players without at least 50 targets last year mcconkey mcconkey finished 12th in epa per target last season and if you go to yards per outrun just like pure efficiency metrics here are the guys who had at least 50 or 75 targets last year who had a higher yards per outrun than lad mcconkey puka nakua aj brown nico collins george kittle justin jefferson brian thomas jr mike evans jamar chase that's it so like pro bowlers

42:13Dave Helman: is pretty much the bar.

42:15Derrik Klassen: Most of the names you just said have been at least some form of all pro, like at least once in their career.

42:20Robert Mays: And then Brian Thomas Jr., who was an absolute force of nature as a rookie. And so he was so good last year and his connection that he has with Herbert and watching that two-man game and all the ways that they can use McConkie, you drop a really talented running back into that mix and we get something from those other young pieces that I think are going to get a lot of opportunities to play. I'm just curious what this group looks like by the end of the year. How does this shake out and how do we feel about the combined weaponry for the Chargers at the end of the 2025 season compared to how we feel about it right now?

42:54Dave Helman: And I'm just kind of interested to see like how they deploy them, like not just like who ends up being good, but like to me, Trey Harris is I mean, he's your ex. And but they brought back Keenan Allen, who hopefully at this stage in his career is just a slot receiver. And then you have Keandre Lambert Smith, who I think is your downfield guy. But Ladd McConkie can kind of do all of that stuff. Like he's probably not as much as the X receivers like Trey Harris can be, but he can be your vertical outside receiver. He can be your vertical slot receiver. He can be your underneath just like find stuff in the zone slot receiver.

43:23Dave Helman: Like he to me is a lot of like peak Tyler Lockett is kind of like how I envision him like the best version of that player. And so if he can now have a little bit more help outside of him and they can really utilize him in all the best ways instead of like we have to throw you 15 targets a game no matter what. I think that can go a long way for this passing offense for sure.

43:41Robert Mays: I think bringing up the Keenan Allen thing is important because even if Keenan Allen's only making three million bucks this year, when you bring in somebody with that history, that pedigree, that prominence, especially within the organization, they're probably going to use Keenan Allen. So how they end up using Keenan Allen, how redundant that is with the ways that they want to line up McConkie, I think that's absolutely an important thing to bring up. And it's the only downside to bringing in somebody like Keenan Allen at a stage like this is that you're probably going to eat into some of the opportunities for the younger guys, but there's a chance that they just don't think those young guys are really ready for those early season opportunities.

44:13Robert Mays: So what that rotation looks like and what the usage looks like, absolutely, I think is worth paying attention to. Let's talk about these swing points for the 2025 Chargers, where this season might pivot for the Chargers. Derek, what do you got for me?

44:27Dave Helman: One of these young players on defense has to be like a star. And I think that's possible. Like I like a lot of these guys. Deion Henley is the guy to me who like, we did a show earlier, this off season where me and Deontay Lee were trying to identify like who are the young defenders who can take a leap. And I brought up Deon Henley because like, he's just, I think he can be that level of player. He's long, really good coverage skills, but it's just like, you want him to go from like B plus to a like level player. And I do think that he can do that, but we got to see it. And then Cam Hart and Tareeb still in the secondary, I think showed a lot of really good stuff as young players last year.

45:01Dave Helman: But I think you kind of wonder about like, what is their ceiling really? and so I want to see if they can tap into a little bit something extra.

45:08Robert Mays: I had something very similar to that. It was essentially just where from this young core of homegrown defensive players do they find their stars? And I think why this is particularly important for the Chargers, Dave, is that they didn't overextend themselves in free agency. I think they've made a very intentional point to not spend on outside guys that they don't think they're going to get returns from. And that's fine, right? It's fine to slow play your build and to make sure that you are going to find your best players in the draft. But if you're going to do it that way, you better find some stars in the draft.

45:43Robert Mays: It puts a higher premium on making sure you can develop those in-house guys when you are not going to spend to the market on guys from outside of your building. And so you look at this collection of players that they've drafted over the last few years on defense. Derek mentioned Dan Henley. I think that's probably the best candidate to take that sort of step. I think they see it that way. You know, for them last year with him, it was if he sees things half a tick faster, how many more balls does he get his hands on? How many PBUs become interceptions? And you go from being a really good, promising young player to somebody who is surprisingly second team all pro.

46:19Robert Mays: Like there is not that big of a gap for Dan Henley specifically to get there. But then you include Tuli Tupolotu, who is now going from their third edge rusher to definitively their second one. Like they need him to take a step forward. You mentioned the corners, Derek, and the other guy that, you know, maybe if you are in a slightly different time in your point, your timeline and you draft a guy in the third round, he's going to be merely a rotational piece for you. Jamari Caldwell is going to have a chance to play for this team. They are going to need guys like him to start popping if the rest of this build is going to make sense.

46:52Robert Mays: So what they get from that young core and who really does flash from that group, I think is really, really important for this team.

46:59Derrik Klassen: I think the corners in particular are emblematic for me. And it's not to say like the other guys are good examples too, but still in heart are emblematic of this for me because you go into last season and I was somebody that was down on the chargers last year. And part of that is because you look at it and you're like, all right, we're starting to fifth round rookies. Like these two guys are going to play a lot. Like, how's that going to go? And it went really well. Like they showed flashes. They were promising. Tariq still won the Atlanta game by his damn self. Like he was great. It was, it was awesome.

47:31Derrik Klassen: And when, when you get pleasant surprises like that, I think there's a natural tendency to be like, okay, that's settled. These guys are going to be here for a long time and they're going to be piece like, you know, pieces of what we're doing going forward. And hopefully that's true. It's too early to say that yet. We know how it goes with young players. Progress is not linear. odds are there's going to be some dips maybe one of these guys isn't going to be as exciting as you think he is right now or the flip side of that is maybe they both kick ass and it just completely changes our perception of this defense but you got to see it you got to see it play out a little bit

48:09Robert Mays: more before we know for sure I'll be really curious to see what those roles end up looking like for this team over the course of the season because as it currently stands I think that they're going to play with a lot of three safeties with Derwin James playing a majority of his snaps in the slot. Like if you think about the DNA of this defense specifically and what versions of it we've seen in 2023, Derek, before they had injuries on the back end at safety, Kyle Hamilton was playing 70 % of his snaps, either in the slot or in the box. I do think that we're going to see that from Derwin James. I think that's why they pay the lies of Molden what they did in free agency.

48:41Robert Mays: So I think it's going to be Molden, Gilman and Derwin on the field for most plays because Derwin's one of those guys where if you're playing against 11, if you're playing against 12, he'll probably be able to be in the slot and you'll be fine. The corner thing, it wasn't settled when I was there. And I was there on, I think, July 23rd. So very, very early in camp. And to read what Daniel Popper has written about it since, it's not settled now. So now you're working through Hart, Still, Dante Jackson, and Benjamin St. Juiced a little bit for who those outside corners are going to be. And so I'll just be curious where they land.

49:16Robert Mays: It still is a little bit undersized, but he's probably the best cover guy among all of them. Like, do they feel like Dante Jackson gives them a little bit more man coverage if they want to tap into that more than they have in recent years? So what that corner rotation looks like is probably the biggest personnel question still remaining for this defense.

49:33Dave Helman: That's actually a really good point with like the the personnel bleeding into like what they could play coverage wise, because I love Cam Hart, but he's not a quick run with you. Man coverage corner in the way that Dante Jackson and Tariq still can be. So that will be interesting. That will be interesting.

49:49Robert Mays: And I think they see it where it might be like a situational thing where if we're playing a team that we feel like we need to play a little bit more man and they have some bigger bodies, is that a game where we see Benjamin St. Just a little bit. Do the corner group, does the corner group look different in the red zone than it does in other areas of the field? And you hear this a lot with receiving course where they'll talk about how it's built like a basketball team. And obviously it helps with just the way that you can use those guys. That's the phrase they were using about their cornerback room with the chargers.

50:17Robert Mays: And so I'll be curious if Jesse Minter's kind of creative in the way that he thinks about those bodies compared to a lot of teams who are just like, those are our three guys. These are our three corners. These are the guys that we're going to play. So just something to keep an eye out for as this Chargers season unfolds. What is keeping us up at night about the Los Angeles Chargers in 2025? Spoiler alert. We had our production meeting earlier today. All three of us had the exact same answer for what's keeping us up at night about the Chargers. Dave lay it on me. What is your source of anxiety with this Chargers team?

50:52Derrik Klassen: That the offensive line won't be appreciably different from last year. Do we need to say a whole lot else? I mean, it's, I am now worried.

51:03Dave Helman: It might be appreciably different in the wrong way. It might be worse. Like their best offensive lineman isn't out there anymore. Like it's, it's tough.

51:11Robert Mays: You're at a spot now where Mekhi Becton has missed the majority of training camp. I think he started working back into team drills about a week ago. I haven't really read anything definitive about how much he's been practicing, but he missed the majority of teamwork during training camp. And this is not somebody with a clean injury history. So if Mekhi Becton misses a handful of games and Jamari Sawyer has to play right guard, apparently he has looked a little bit better this year. He's lost a little bit of weight. But let's say that happens. Then all you're doing is you're sliding in Bradley Bozeman for Will Clapp at center, and you're likely downgrading a little bit, or at least making a lateral move from Rashawn Slater to Joe all at left tackle from what the 2023 Chargers offensive line looked like.

51:52Robert Mays: And that is a particular problem when you combine it with the results from last year. We talked about this, Dave, the run game was not good last season. And really the only thing they've done to make it better are go out and get my Kybeckton and draft O'Marrion Hampton. This team was middle of the pack in EPA per carry last year because they had a lot of explosive runs, especially early in the season with J.K. Dobbins. But they were 29th in success rate. And if you look at runs that went for zero or negative yards, so teams kind of dictating the physicality of the game to you, which is not something we would describe to a Jim Harbaugh team.

52:25Robert Mays: They finished 31st. Only the Dolphins were worse than them. I don't think Jim Harbaugh stylistically wants to be anything like the Miami Dolphins. and if you look at the teams in the bottom five the Vikings were 28th the Seahawks were 29th the Texans were 30th the Chargers were 31st and the Dolphins were 32nd let's go through all those teams the Vikings have 60 percent new starters along their offensive line the Seahawks have 40 percent new starters and fired their offensive coordinator the Texans are going to have 80 percent new starters and fired their offensive coordinator and the Dolphins have three new offensive line starters the Chargers are essentially we got Mekhi Becton and O'Malley Hampton, everything else is going to be fine.

53:03Robert Mays: And so I think that there is more at play here than just one guard for why this run game might've struggled. And I'm just, I have lingering concerns that what they did this off season can appreciably improve it.

53:16Derrik Klassen: What sucks is I liked it a hell of a lot better before you lose Rashawn Slater. Like it was, it was still, they didn't do a ton, but I thought they did enough. Like Mekhi Becton playing next to an ascending top 10 pick in Joe Alt. That's great. And then obviously you've got Slater. You could have taken a guard. I'm looking at the draft order right now. Like you could have taken Donovan Jackson if you really wanted to, instead of drafting Amari and Hampton. But with the talent at tackle and then adding Becton, I was on board with the running back, but now it's just shitty circumstance where you lose an all pro tackle and now everything's in disarray.

53:57Derrik Klassen: I'm honestly, I'm not even worried about Joe alt, which is a crazy thing to say. Like, I'm not worried about him playing left tackle full time. I'm just worried about the domino effect that it has on everything else. Like Trey Pipkins is like a Barney in the Simpsons scene where Mo throws him out and he pops up back behind him. You know what I'm talking about? It's like, I thought, I thought we fixed this. I thought this was going to be better this year. And it just, it just looks like it's not. I mean, what? Justin Herbert got sacked 29 times last year. And more than half of that is from guys that are like now going to be in the lineup.

54:35Derrik Klassen: Yeah. And it's just tough. And as good as I feel about Hampton, and I do think Hampton can offset some of that. It felt easier to believe when everybody like when the full when the original version of this was in play.

54:48Robert Mays: yeah if American Hampton's getting hit behind the line of scrimmage on 26 percent of his rushing attempts this year it doesn't really matter how good O'Marion Hampton is so this isn't going to fix everything but I do wonder if the potential issues at offensive line drafting O'Marion Hampton

55:05Dave Helman: from the offense that he came from if they become a little bit more of a gun team which I think is probably something that Harbaugh doesn't want to do but like O'Marion Hampton was awesome out of the gun in college and like Herbert, I think as a passer is very comfortable doing that. I don't think he needs to, you know, get under center drop back stuff. So I just, they were only like 35 % under center last year. It was like slightly above average. So it's not like they were, it's not like they were the lions, but I do wonder if that drops to, I don't know, 23 % and they really just lean into being more of a gun team to try to get a little bit more efficient, maybe RPO the run game a little bit more.

55:38Robert Mays: Well, that was going to, I was going to say, I think you could make an argument that it should go the other way, right? If they want it to be a little bit more efficient on the ground, do you get under center a little bit more because that helps your running game? And so I think that that to me was always a question with this team is when you go from the Greg Roman running game in Baltimore, where the quarterback is part of the run game and you're in the gun all the time to a team that doesn't have that quarterback run element, what does that look like? And I feel like them being as in the gun, as much as they were last year, when you don't have the quarterback involved in that, it inherently limits how good your run game can be.

56:12Dave Helman: yeah but I feel like even with an under center run game it's not that well designed out of Roman unless you have the quarterback element of it which they they clearly don't I they probably will lean one way or the other but I just I don't know I guess the issue too if you become more of a gun team then you really rely on more of the Greg Roman drop back game which is maybe not something that I would want to be doing so maybe you actually have it you're maybe you're on the right track

56:35Robert Mays: actually I just don't know what the right formula for this offense is because I feel like running the ball play action, I think is probably the direction that I would go when you're trying to be explosive, but if you're going to be a gun team, and they did use a ton of play action last year, but they were doing it from the gun, which is just a little bit different than a lot of other teams. Like, I just feel like they never settled on what they wanted the offensive identity to be last year, and I don't think, in talking to people there this year, a lot of it was, well, we just need the run game to be better, we just need the run game to be better, and it wasn't really a lot of, this is how we want to tweak stuff in the passing game, so I just don't know what to expect from them as they try to smooth out some of the issues that they had last year.

57:14Robert Mays: Let's talk about what we're watching for the first month of the season with the Los Angeles Chargers. I think we had a similar answer to this, Derek, and so I'll just roll with the one that I had. I'm just curious how Jesse Minter evolves this defense in year two. This is a group that was so much better than anybody expected them to be last season. I mean, by a lot of advanced metrics, this was like definitively a top 10 defense, and they did it without a lot of high end talent. So I'm just curious what act two from this group looks like where, okay, we have defined weaknesses. We have things that we papered over last year that will probably get exposed over time.

57:50Robert Mays: How do we make sure we're accounting for those things a little bit better this time around?

57:54Dave Helman: And I'm just interested to see what it looks like style wise and feel wise, because like they, to me, so I think kind of the best way to describe the kind of defense they play is they are very like they just don't make mistakes and they force you to make big plays. Last year on completed passes, they were the second best passing defense in terms of defensive success rate. The only team above them was the Philadelphia Eagles. And how have we always talked about the Eagles? It's like they're not doing a bunch of crazy shit. They're just forcing you to consistently make the right play over and over and over and over again.

58:26Dave Helman: And the Chargers, I do think, did a really good job with that. I just the difference to me between them and Philly is Philly has more like actual star firepower that they can lean on when they really need it, whereas the Chargers have not always had all of that. And so there's part of me in the back of my mind that's like, all right, if you're playing this conservative-ish defense and you don't really have the stars, is that something that can sustain itself without changing? So to me, I'm just looking for them to maybe get a little bit more aggressive with some of their pressure calls, maybe get a little bit more, or I would say less vanilla with some of the coverages that they like to play in the back end, maybe get a little bit more aggressive to again, make up for not having that much star power on the roster.

59:03Robert Mays: Yeah. And I think that's fair. And I think they're probably in a similar headspace in terms of where they need to fill in the gaps a little bit heading into this year. If you look at two areas, I think I would point out where even though this defense overall was very good, this is where they struggled. They finished 19th and run defense success last year, given how the, how light their boxes they play are, which I think there was second in the NFL. I think only the Eagles play with lighter boxes. That's okay. Like the run defense was not atrocious last year, But if you look at when teams were trying to kind of assert themselves against them on the ground, first down and then under center runs, like we are dictating the terms to you.

59:38Robert Mays: The Chargers finished 27th in the NFL and defensive success rate on under center runs, and they were dead last and run defense success rate on first down. They allowed 5.7 yards per carry on first down. And so that's an issue. And I think that's something they know and have to get better at. And then you change it to kind of the complete opposite situationally on third and like short and third and medium. That's where they had a lot of issues last year on third and seven plus. They were number one in the NFL in success rate on defense, 23 and a half percent. They played 72 percent zone on those place.

1:00:14Robert Mays: On third and short and medium, they were 13th in the NFL in passing success rate because they were playing mostly man on those place. and they are just not set up last year to do that. Well, now you have Dante Jackson. Now you have St. Juice. Okay, we'll see what you can get from the second year guys and whether or not they're a little bit more comfortable. I think overall, they know what they have at corner this year. And I think that they can lean on those guys in a way that they couldn't last year. So I think those are two areas where those are issues that need to be addressed. And I think that we're going to see slight tweaks to try to get ahead of those a little bit.

1:00:48Robert Mays: Two personnel things just to throw out about the way that this team is constructed and maybe a couple of the issues that we might see. They feel like they have more capable bodies at defensive tackle this year than they had coming into last year. But last year, Puna Ford really kind of separated himself. And I don't think they have one of those guys this year. I think it's a lot of similar body types, similar skill sets, a lot of space eaters, a lot of guys that are willing to kind of chew rocks and eat up blocks. I think you're going to feel the fact that they don't have a real penetrator as part of that group though.

1:01:20Robert Mays: That's a skill set that eventually does need to get added to the mix here. And one of the issues with that is when you combine it with a lack of edge depth that this team has, you just wonder where the pass rush pop is going to be coming from. You know, Thule, we'll see if he can take a step. But beyond that, you're talking about Bud Dupree. You're talking about Kennard, who I think is not even going to start the season healthy and Caleb Murphy. You know, Caleb Murphy might be their like third-ish pass rusher because Bud Dupree is really just like a specific situational guy at this point. So that's one area where I don't know if it's changed over the course of training camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were having conversations about needing to add some sort of outside body to the mix there.

1:02:00Dave Helman: And I don't know, like, who it would be at this stage, but like it that is ultimately what it comes down to to me, where I'm like, they cannot dictate the game to other teams. Like, again, they're really, really good at not making mistakes and forcing teams to really like be clean. But these teams who have star power can kick their ass like the Chargers just don't have firepower to fight that. They don't have DTs who can get into the backfield. The edge room outside of Khalil Mack is pretty thin. And then they don't have a corner who can like run with you and just be like, we got to shut down AJ Brown on this play.

1:02:29Dave Helman: Like you got to just go man to man with him. Like they just don't have any of that. And so this to me, this is how I felt last year. And this is kind of how I felt this year. They are a really, really good defense for everyone. That's like not a top eight offense.

1:02:42Robert Mays: And then when you watch the game last year, just think back to what that Bucs game felt like last year.

1:02:46Dave Helman: The Bengals were dropping bombs on them. Like they just, these teams that have the right quarterbacks can just kind of go nuclear on them. And that is, I still have the same exact concern.

1:02:57Robert Mays: Let's talk about what success looks like for the 2025 Chargers. David, what do you got for me?

1:03:02Derrik Klassen: Something I try to keep in the back of my mind with the Chargers is I really applaud their approach. Like it would be easy to be reckless after you had a surprisingly good season. Joe Ortiz and Jim Harbaugh remind me of like, like if you won a big scratch off, let's just say you got like 30 grand in the scratch off. They decided to pay off their car note instead of getting a new grill or buying a speedboat, which like good for you. That's really smart. Pay off your car. But you probably really want a speedboat and a nice grill in this game, right? Like where's the badass receiver? Where's the badass edge rusher?

1:03:43Derrik Klassen: So I'm tempering my expectations for them. But like, even, even if that's a good thing that they've been responsible, you still got to get results at the end of the day. So I don't have super high expectations for this team, at least relative to like the AFC hierarchy. I think it's fine if they take like a small step back. That said, when you have Justin Herbert and they don't have a bad roster, like I think, I think you got to at least have a winning record here. I don't need a whole lot else, but like a winning record. Maybe you make the playoffs or at least you're playing for it at the end of the year.

1:04:20Derrik Klassen: I think that's fine. Derek, what do you got?

1:04:23Dave Helman: I'm pretty much in the same boat. The success is probably squeaking into the playoffs again, but I feel. I'm not that confident that they're going to do it necessarily at this stage. It's just I think when I think the quarterback is that good and the head coach is that good, that's kind of the standard I'm going to hold you to, even if I don't necessarily believe the rest of the roster is there.

1:04:46Robert Mays: Derrick's going to put 26 teams in the playoffs by the time we get to the end of these previews. It's a competitive league. Go and go.

1:04:52Derrik Klassen: Everybody's a failure in Derrick's eyes.

1:04:54Robert Mays: I love it, though. I think have a winning record is pretty good. The way that I was framing that is to show a reasonable floor, like whether that floor is eight, nine, nine and eight, like you are going to be in the mix consistently each year, even if you're not pushing in the way that some other teams did this off season. And I do think on a more granular level, you need to develop three or four of these young guys. Like you need to come out of this year feeling pretty good about the difference makers you have in house because of the way that you're trying to develop and grow this roster. And if you don't have that, if by the end of this season, Deion Henley doesn't become that guy.

1:05:27Robert Mays: If Joe all isn't like a pro bowl kind of borderline, all pro level tackle. If one of those corners doesn't pop, if one of those defensive linemen doesn't pop, then we're, we get to the end of the year and the roster feels and the receivers, I think I'd throw in there too. You get to the end of the year, then the roster feels kind of like it did at the end of last year. And I think that would be a problem for them. If we're thinking about the chargers and talking about the chargers, when it comes to roster talent in the same way on new year's day, 2026, as we did on new year's day, 2025, where it's all they're well coached, but they just don't really have the horses.

1:05:58Robert Mays: That to me would be a problem because at some point you need a couple of those guys to start emerging. Let's talk about the Denver Broncos. Our preview for the 2025 Broncos. They're off season in 60 seconds. Extended Zach Allen, four years, $102 million,$70 million guaranteed. Extended Corlin Sutton, four years,$92 million, $41 million guaranteed. Brought back DJ Jones, three years,$39 million, $26 guaranteed. Talanoa Fonga, three years,$39 million,$20 guaranteed. Dre Greenlaw, three years,$31 million, $13.5 guaranteed. brought in ever in ingram two years 23 million extended jared stidham two years 12 million those backup quarterback contracts man god bless them small deals for trent shurfield justin sternod jk dobbins in the draft took jedi berry in the cornerback 20th overall running back rj harvey second round 60th overall wide receiver pat bryant third round 74th overall and edge rusher savi on jones in the third round 101st overall lost cody barton and javante williams in free agency and then traded Devon Valey to the saints for a fourth round pick.

1:06:55Robert Mays: Dave, what are you excited about watching for the 2025 Denver Broncos?

1:07:01Derrik Klassen: The best defense in the NFL added two of the biggest shit kickers from one of the best defenses of the last five years to their unit. I, I, that I, that's where it begins and ends with me. And there's other exciting stuff about the Broncos, but this was already the best defense in the NFL or certainly on that short list. And now Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufunga are there. I think it's worth pointing out. It's been a couple up and down years for Hufunga since the all pro season. I'm not, I'm not ready to say he's one of the best safeties in the NFL at this moment. Greenlaw coming off the Superbowl injury as well.

1:07:38Derrik Klassen: We'll, you know, we'll see what these guys actually look like, but the potential is there to inject a whole lot of attitude and a whole lot of playmaking ability into a defense that didn't really need it, but it's really fun that they got it.

1:07:53Robert Mays: You look at it, there are so many just banshees on this team. Nick Bonito and the way that he plays, now you add Greenlaw and Hufanga to the mix. DJ Jones is just, I mean, when we talk about glass eaters in the NFL, DJ Jones is the exact player that you're talking about. John Franklin Myers has been a really nice piece for some of these defensive lines over the last few years. I love, I love guys like that. Give me, give me all of your like 290 pound tweeners in this year, in this version of the NFL. It used to be a negative thing. Now I think you can really use some of these guys based on how, you know, just the way the teams think about pass rush skill sets.

1:08:31Robert Mays: And we talk about pocket pushers and guys that just have a little bit more size and strength. And then Zach Allen was one of the most productive interior rushers in the league last year. like they have so many difference making players up front and oh yeah they have the defensive player of the year at one of their cornerback spots like we talked about this a lot over the last couple weeks Derek this idea of if we're trying to pick great defenses every year sometimes it can be hard the term that we kept coming back to is this team has a chance to be the best defense in the league and I think you can make an argument that the Broncos have as good a chance as any to

1:09:04Dave Helman: be that team yeah like if i was picking one today it's for me it's probably them or houston um but yeah man like this this front is insane like it's just incredibly deep in terms of the pass rushers all of the starting interior guys are awesome and their biggest issue to me last year was the spine of the defense and what did they do they went out and got dre greenlaw who i think if he can return healthy is going to be one of the better linebackers in the league again and then talanoa hufanga and so again i know that there's a little bit of like injury concern with those guys but But they are. We'll talk about it.

1:09:33Dave Helman: Yeah, we will. But those guys, for whatever games they are out there for, are considerably better players than were out there at those spots for this team last year. So they're going from, it's not just the quality, but this is like, in terms of ass kicker index, this team was like a 6 out of 10 last year. Like, it was a great defense, but it was more like, okay, their pass rush is just really fast. Now they're like a 9 out of 10 with guys like Greenlaw and Hufanga.

1:09:55Derrik Klassen: Can I share a stat with y 'all that I found that I really, really loved while I was looking at stuff for this? I would love it. Denver led the league in sacks with 63. Do you know how many they bring back from that team to this team? That's probably most of it. 58.

1:10:12Robert Mays: Baron Browning. Did Baron Browning have like a sack early in the season?

1:10:15Derrik Klassen: 61 and a half of those sacks are coming back. Cody Barton had one and a half sacks for this team, and he's the only guy that's not still there. That's when you turn over a third of the roster every year in the NFL, that's insane. and it's very exciting if you're a Broncos fan.

1:10:33Robert Mays: That's why it was fun to see them bring back DJ Jones. And obviously, you know, resigning Zach Allen, this group is going to be together for a little while here. I was wondering based on some of the multi-year outlooks for the way that that group was built, whether they would draft a defensive tackle or an interior player really high in this draft because Zach Allen was a pending free agent and they're just deciding to roll with this group again. You look at both sides of the ball, the things I wanted the Chargers to do this offseason was essentially if there's a list of priorities, one, add a little bit of pop at tight end and running back and two, bring some ass kicking energy to the spine of the defense.

1:11:06Robert Mays: They did exactly those two things. And I don't want that to be the marker by how we judge teams off seasons, whether that they did the things I wanted them to do, but it is pleasing when it happens. And that's exactly why I think that there's been like growing affinity for this team for a lot of people is because you look at the holes they had coming into it. They filled those holes. They were already a good team. there just aren't that many areas of the roster and we'll get into this where there are a lot of issues like there's a lot of vacillation based on how the quarterback plays etc all of that but there are not a lot of glaring holes with the way that this team is built right now because of the way that they address this offseason and i think at least some small part of it too with

1:11:45Dave Helman: the defense too is like don't you always feel better about a team or a unit when they're great and then they double down on it being great like you just feel better betting on it the next year you're like, ah, there's no volatility here. They're going to, they're going to kick ass again. And that's exactly what this defense did.

1:11:59Robert Mays: Yeah. And I think they get it. You get ahead of aggression a little bit that way. If you, if that's your mindset and hopefully that is the case for this team that obviously took a massive leap on defense last year. And often that stuff comes back to earth, but is this one of those teams because they spent so many of their available resources to reinforce this group that maybe it comes a little bit less for the Broncos than it might for some other teams that have a huge one year lift. So Derek, you had another answer here. What are you excited to watch with the 2025 Broncos?

1:12:30Dave Helman: I want to see what what Sean Payton's got up his sleeve. I mean, this was an offense that I think surprised us a little bit last year in a number of ways. I think we, given the Russell Wilson thing, didn't know exactly what we were going to get from Sean Payton anymore. And then I think a lot of us, you know, myself included, I'll throw myself out there for sure, did not have that much faith that Bo Nix could like come in dear a pretty good offense. And that was actually not the case. They were a they were a dead average offense, but it's just I thought I think most people thought they were going to be worse than that.

1:12:58Dave Helman: And so I'm really excited for what it's going to look like. They are always Peyton's run game is always a little bit of a charcuterie board. And I expect that to be the case going into next year as well. Like he kind of runs a little bit of everything. Hopefully they can just get a little bit better at some of that stuff. I also want to see more. And this ties into Evan Ingram specifically. I want to see them be a little bit more vertical. and I want to see them be able to attack the seams in a way that is like not just hey Cortland Sutton can you run to the hash on a dig route and I do think Evan Ingram brings that the only team by percentage that threw to their tight ends less than the Broncos last year was the New York Giants that's gonna like flip this year where you know maybe they're not gonna be second in tight end targets but they're going to throw to Evan Ingram a lot and like that alone and the gravity that he's gonna bring to the offense even if he's not an elite player I do think it's just gonna change the math on the passing offense entirely so i'm just excited to see what that actually turns out

1:13:50Robert Mays: looking like we talked to our broncos writer nick cosmeider last week on our final training camp notebook show that we did and he was mentioning that there's a chance a good chance that the devon valet trade is more a product of them using evan ingram as like that big slot player rather than one of the receivers coming along whether it's pat bryant marvin mims troy franklin guys we'll talk about. So this team, I think he was 11 personnel and like 58, 59, 58 % of its snaps last year, which was, I think the 20th highest rate in the league. Is it even less this year? Like, do we see more 12 personnel even than we did last year?

1:14:24Robert Mays: Because Evan Ingram kind of becomes a wide receiver in some of those looks. So how Ingram reshapes that offense and the way that that receiving core is deployed, I absolutely think is worth keeping an eye on. Let's talk Talk about the swing points, Dave, for the 2025 Broncos, where this season might pivot for Denver. What do you got?

1:14:42Derrik Klassen: So we got a bigger conversation coming about Bo Nix, obviously, but independent of the Bo Nix thing, I just really want to know what the Broncos actually get out of RJ Harvey. And I think RJ Harvey, every year there's a group of players where the popularity of fantasy football grossly, not grossly, but like just dramatically inflates the amount of conversations that we have about a guy. And RJ Harvey is that dude, like the 60th overall pick in the draft would not generate this much discussion. If fantasy football wasn't as popular as it is. And I'm just, I'm curious to see what RJ Harvey actually does.

1:15:23Derrik Klassen: Like, is he good enough to sort of take the ball and run with it in a running back position that doesn't have a whole lot coming back from last year, doesn't have a true number one anyway obviously there's there's a lot of reasons to think why this might be really good denver's run game was middle of the pack last year 16th in rushing success rate 26 uh 26 percent of their runs went over expectation they were 29th in yards after contact per rush which is again down there with the kareem hunt chiefs like just not a whole lot of guys making stuff happen outside of what is blocked for them. Harvey's exciting.

1:16:03Derrik Klassen: I get it. I'm encouraged to see the ways that, that Sean Payton could use him. If he really is that good, I think it's worth mentioning all of Sean Payton's best new Orleans offenses relied heavily on their running back, wearing a variety of hats from Darren Sproles to Alvin Kamara. Even Reggie Bush did it way back in the early days. So like the best version of RJ Harvey could be super exciting and could do a lot of fun stuff. But is the 60th overall pick in the draft really ready to do that right out of the gate? Or is this a little bit of fantasy football wish casting?

1:16:37Dave Helman: I think it's Sean Payton wish casting. I think it's a lot of, oh, we've seen Sean Payton do this with backs who kind of look like that. And I think people are in particular, like bringing up like Alvin Kamara, Alvin Kamara was two pounds and two inches and 10 pounds bigger than RJ Harvey is and like he was I think a more put together runner uh immediately than I think that we've seen from RJ Harvey like he had a bigger pedigree coming out of college like I'll just Kamara felt like somebody who slipped through the cracks for what he actually ended up being and RJ RJ Harvey feels a little bit more like Sean Payton just being really attached to a certain archetype and hoping that it works and it might right like Harvey is a really explosive player when he can get to the second level I just this Denver offensive line blocking wise is not as good as they probably like the the perception of them probably is and that makes me better in

1:17:24Robert Mays: pass protection and I think part of that is the pass protection plan for this team exactly and

1:17:29Dave Helman: like if if they're going to be an average ish run blocking unit again which they were last year that worries me a little bit for backs like jk dobbins and to me rj harvey where his biggest issue was vision and if the if the running if the running game isn't just going to open up stuff for you makes me a little bit iffy on it it's funny because I actually when I'm thinking about

1:17:46Robert Mays: what makes RJ Harvey attractive stylistically based on recent NFL history. It's actually what Bucky Irving did last year. Like I think what Bucky Irving did last year and just some of the shiftiness in space, the explosiveness, what he did for that Bucks team. That's why I'm sitting there being like, what can RJ Harvey be for the Broncos? But that gap scheme run that, that those, the gap scheme runs in Tampa and just how they could move people in the space that they create allows us to see the best version of a player like Bucky Irving. I think there's a reasonable question about whether the Broncos offensive line can be that dominant in the run game in order for us to realize the best version of a player like RJ Harvey.

1:18:28Robert Mays: I will say I loved studying RJ Harvey before the draft. I really, really liked what I saw from RJ Harvey. And I think the explosiveness and just, again, how elusive he is at the second level and what sort of big plays might be available for this team that just weren't there last year. I'm excited to watch that. They were 19th in explosive run rate from running backs last year. Last year, the only running back in college football with more 15 yard runs than RJ Harvey was Ashton Jenty. And so it's good stat. I think that there are a couple limiters on what he could be this year. body type, all that kind of stuff.

1:19:08Robert Mays: But I'm at least curious to see what this ends up looking like because I did really like what I saw from him in college. This is a really boring one for my swing point for the Broncos. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it because then you would say about every team, but I think for this team specifically, it's worth mentioning. It's just health and it's twofold for me. They missed a combined eight starts from their offensive line last year. And this offensive line and the quality of pass protection that they provided throughout the entire year was key to this team's success. We'll talk about how that affected Bo Nix in a positive way here in a second.

1:19:41Robert Mays: But let's say you lose half a season from Quinn Miner or something like that. You can say that about every team. But again, I think we're kind of nitpicking with this team because there aren't as many glaring weaknesses. So I think offensive line health, but also the two biggest free agent additions you put on this team this year have extensive injury histories. It would be silly not to mention the downside case for these guys. Like it's not all wheels up with Dre Greenlaw and Ufanga. There's a reason that they didn't stick in San Francisco. And there's a reason they were available for reasonable prices this off season.

1:20:12Robert Mays: And it's because they've struggled to stay on the field. So if we get worse offensive line luck and you lose one or both of your big, splashy free agent additions, what does that do to the complexion of this Broncos team over the course of the season? Again, you could say that about everybody, but I think for them specifically, the health thing is kind of at front of mind for me. let's talk about what's keeping us up at night about the 2025 Denver Broncos. This is a Bo Nix question and not because he was bad last year, but I think when you're talking about what might be sticking in the back of your mind about what might limit the ceiling of this team that I think has real playoff, if not like final four type aspirations, it's does the offense have enough firepower that it needs for the, for this team to take the step that they want to.

1:20:58Robert Mays: and Derek we can talk about the buckets that involve that are involved in that but I think the quarterback is undeniably at the center of it like what sort of step he takes I think is a huge thing to consider for where the Broncos can go this year I don't think that's an original thought

1:21:12Dave Helman: it's not and like there are definitely two ways to talk about this there's the quarterback and then there's the skill players which I we do need to hit both because I do think the skill player part of it is interesting with the quarterback I think Bo Nix was really good at a handful of things he was obviously a really good scrambler that was definitely part of it he was good at throwing on the move and the offense catered to him doing a lot of that um and he was like a generally pretty accurate passer to all three levels like was he always on time was he always making the right decisions did he always have the full breadth of the offense available to him not in my opinion but when the ball did get out he was generally pretty accurate and I do think that that goes a long way but I had a couple of complaints with him that I really want to see improve for for next year.

1:21:53Dave Helman: First of all, 39 quarterbacks last year through at least 200 passes. The only quarterback worse under pressure on an EPA per drop back basis was Mac Jones. That's not good. So that's that needs to get better. We came into the season saying that he was a guy who I think when the pocket collapses around him, he can get a little bit shaky. And I think he got a smidgen better by the end of the year, but not so much so that I don't think this is still a big issue for him. And so that needs to get better. And then also he completed a lot of useless passes last year. He had a 43.6 % overall success rate, which was like kind of below average.

1:22:30Dave Helman: It was 25th out of 36 qualifiers on completed passes. He was 35th out of 36 quarterbacks in terms of success rate. So like he just completed a lot of passes that were doing all for this offense. And so that just has to change. Like he has to be able to be more aggressive and throw down the field a little bit more, or just be even more willing to use his legs because he is good at that. So he just, I would like to see him be a guy who can create a little bit more outside of what is being given to him by the offense.

1:23:00Robert Mays: It's funny, because I do think if you look at some of the numbers with him pushing the ball down the field, he did it reasonably often. But I think that's a lot of like, that's the first read within the progression. Like you're supposed to take that big dig or that shot down the field. He was willing to let those things rip. And I think that willingness to like, try to hunt out those explosive plays that were like the basis of the play that was called was actually a good part of Bo Nix's game. He finished 12th in the NFL in the percentage of his throws that went at least 20 air yards. Down the field, aggressiveness was not the issue.

1:23:30Robert Mays: I think it was aggressiveness within the rhythm of plays and pushing the ball into tight areas. If you look at it, and this is the number that jumped out to me with this exact kind of conversation last year on his quick attempts, 38, 30.8 % of his quick passing attempts. So less than two and a half seconds last year were screens. That was the most in the NFL by three percentage points. So in terms of like any sort of intermediate passes or within the rhythm of a play passes that were not like deeper shots down the field, those didn't really exist for the Broncos last year, to the extent that they existed for other teams, when he was getting the ball out, it was mostly screens like 31 % of his throws.

1:24:16Robert Mays: And he had one of the highest time to throws in the league on non screens. So it was either pushing the ball down the field or getting rid of the ball very quickly. So where the stuff in the middle ends up falling this year, I think that's one of the things that I'm really going to be keeping an eye on.

1:24:31Dave Helman: You know who this actually weirdly reminds me of development curve wise uh Washington Kirk Cousins was a lot of the same way obviously he wasn't the same athlete but that whole offense when he first got in there was I'm throwing it deep down the field to Deshaun Jackson or we're throwing a screen or I'm checking it down and like he did not throw the middle of the field very much and like uh Bo Nix I think kind of a little bit has the same issue obviously Bo Nix circumvents that by being an athlete but I think that was something that Kirk Cousins had to really get over and then also managing the pocket was something that Kirk Cousins it took seven years for him to get any good at it and so that's

1:25:05Derrik Klassen: something that Bo Nix needs to fix as well I would like to think Evan Ingram can help with some of that sure at the very least yeah I mean that's Devon Vele was that type of receiver in this

1:25:16Robert Mays: offense last year they didn't really have any others and so I think Evan Ingram's skill set absolutely fits the exact type of plays that I'm talking about they really didn't have that guy other than a late drafted rookie last year. And the other part that Derek mentioned that I think is something we have to bring up with Bo Nix anytime we talk about him before the season starts, the pressure numbers are very bad. He was dead last in success rate against the Blitz last year for quarterbacks at least 350 dropbacks. And he was dead last in success rate when pressured. Without scrambles, he had a 22.2 % success rate just in the pocket.

1:25:51Dave Helman: So like if the ball came out or if he got set, I guess.

1:25:54Robert Mays: The only quarterbacks with a worse success rate when you remove scrambles when pressured since 2000 were Baker Mayfield in 2022, Zach Wilson in 2021, and Justin Fields in 2022.

1:26:07Derrik Klassen: Man, that's why I think it's it is so good and something like we should mention the injury luck that the Broncos had. Like I, I'd refuse to believe it's a knock on Bo Nix to say, Hey, his offensive line was good. And together for the vast majority of the season, that is the ultimate ACE up a rookie quarterback sleeve. And if I had to guess, it'll probably not be so clean this year for one reason or another. I made mention of it on our pre-production call. This is an old offensive line too. Like the average age, you think, especially older than you think, considering, I feel like it's a new phenomenon that the Broncos O-line is this force.

1:26:48Derrik Klassen: And so you, you look at it and you're like, Oh, most of these guys are young. No Quinn miners is pretty young, but the tackles are North of 30. Uh, the center is 28 years old, which really blew me away. Like a year four player who's 28 years old. I was not ready to see that when I was doing research, Luke Wattenberg, he turns 28 in a few weeks actually. So between the age and just the luck of football, I think Bo Nix is going to have to make do with less good protection this year. At least I think it's a healthy way to look at it. It's just to say odds are it might not be this good in 2025. How do you handle it?

1:27:26Robert Mays: We've talked about this a lot, Derek. I think it's just creativity within the pocket, feel within the pocket, because his legs, their screen game, and his ability to push the ball downfield and some of those like bigger, heavy personnel play action shots, those were the best parts of this offense last year. And combined, it looks pretty damn good. It was a very good plan. How they fill out the rest of it, I think, becomes the real question. And I want to see how the personnel feeds into that. I mean, based on everything that we've heard, seen, read, Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin are going to be more a part of this offense this year.

1:27:58Robert Mays: Combined with Evan Ingram, we'll see what they get from Pat Bryant. This group, if the defense is going to be what we think, the step that the Broncos offense takes this year is going to be one of the biggest things that dictates how the NFL season goes. and that is partially on the quarterback, but I think there are a lot of other layers to it. And I think that's why there's so much intrigue and interest with every element of who this offense is going to be in 2025. Let's talk about what we're watching over the first month of the season for the Broncos. Dave, what do you got for me?

1:28:29Derrik Klassen: It's always fun when you're not 100 % sure what the game plan is for the first round pick. And that seems to be the case for Jaday Barron, the cornerback they drafted out of Texas. he's I mean we knew going in he's got nickel outside corner flexibility and that's what we're hearing out of Broncos camp I love this actually Sean Payton said recently when talking about what Barron's role could look like he mentioned Malcolm Jenkins who if you go back ages ago Malcolm Jenkins was an outside corner out of Ohio State who they played at the nickel and like kind of in a hybrid role in 2009 he didn't become the safety that we think of now until a couple of years into his NFL career.

1:29:12Derrik Klassen: So I'm curious just to see what they have in mind for him. I mean, as far as I'm aware, he hasn't even beaten out Jaquan Millen, McMillen officially for the slot job. So he might not be a day one starter. He could rotate with McMillen. He could do some safety stuff. He could be on the field in six defensive back looks. I don't know. But I think Vance Joseph will probably have a fun idea for what to do with him the one thing I do know is that a top 20 pick gets on the field like you got to play a guy drafted that highly one way or the other so I'm curious to see what it looks like feels like

1:29:47Robert Mays: we'll see him sooner rather than later I mean some teams are just like this with rookies right where they're going to slow play them they're going to make them earn it like I just feel like if you're going to take that guy 20th overall you probably have a vision for him being a prominent part of your defense pretty early in the season yeah that just kind of feels like a Sean Payton

1:30:04Dave Helman: type of thing that's going on. Make them earn it. Yeah, make them earn it.

1:30:07Robert Mays: You don't get the logo on your helmet until training camp. Exactly. There are teams that like steadfastly believe that shit though. Oh yeah, for sure. And it's like, it's not about necessarily just the guys, but it's about like their teammates' perceptions of them as well. It's just like, you don't want to look at that guy. I had a head coach say exactly that to me when we were talking about rookies and whether they'd break into the lineup. And I was kind of like, well, you want those guys to get those jobs, right? And he's like, well, yeah, You always kind of want that, but you can't hand it to him and have the guy next to him look at it, be like, look at this asshole.

1:30:39Robert Mays: Like you can't do that. And so I think that trying to make sure you're considering the dynamics and everything that goes into that, you're dangling the carrot for the individual player, but also taking into account the perception for the guys around him. I do think that's at front of mind for a lot of these guys as they think about how to divvy up training camp deployment, that kind of stuff.

1:30:59Dave Helman: I mean, Sean Payton's a Bill Parcells guy. That's kind of all you need to know on that stuff. Yeah, that says it perfectly.

1:31:06Robert Mays: For me, I think I was also interested in the secondary. And on my end, it's just the non-Patrick Sertan parts of the secondary. What do they look like? You know, Riley Moss is back healthy. Is he going to be able to keep that outside cornerback job? Or do they get to a place where they think Barron on the outside and McMillan inside is their best collection of three corners? Do we see them try a little bit more three safety stuff now that they have three safeties? PJ Locke is now a depth piece after starting for them. Is that a situation where they think they can play one of those guys in the nickel if they want to be in a big nickel look?

1:31:36Robert Mays: Do we see more dime from this team because they have so much defensive back depth? How does that play into the amount of man coverage they want to play on third down? Like just overall, the secondary and the pieces. How does Vance Joseph view those guys and what is his vision for how he wants to cohesively deploy those guys? That is something I will be watching in the first month of the year.

1:31:57Dave Helman: Yeah, I mean, my answer to this question was basically a rewording of that, which is just like, can they play coverage the way that they want to? Because last year, for as good as the defense was, there were times where the not Patrick Sertan guys were struggling a little bit. And I think it got mostly papered over because the pass rush was so good that sometimes it just wasn't a problem or you didn't think about it. But this was a team when when they got pressure last year, which was a lot because they were one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. They were fourth in success rate as a passing defense.

1:32:26Dave Helman: When they didn't get pressure, they were 14th, which is still nice because you have Patrick Sertan, but that's not quite up in that elite tier that I think that they were cracking into. So if that can change by virtue of Barron being a little bit better, by Hufango giving you a little bit of something, having a little bit more flexibility, like you said, potentially playing three safeties. That to me is kind of how this defense really, really kicks into high gear.

1:32:47Robert Mays: They were more of like a Rolodex coverage team than I expected when I went back and looked at the actual numbers. Like they play a decent amount of man on third down. I want to say it was like 38 ish, 40 % of snaps, which is like a top seven ish rate. But I think we ascribe just man heavy team to them because of Patrick Sertan. But in reality, especially on early downs, that's not really who they are. It's a little bit more amorphous than that. And so how that looks with at least different defensive back personnel worth paying attention to. Let's talk about what success looks like for the 2025 Denver Broncos.

1:33:18Robert Mays: Dave, what do you got?

1:33:19Derrik Klassen: you know I'm gonna try to be more like Derek here because as we're talking through this as we're talking through this it's hard to come up with reasons why the Broncos shouldn't at least make the playoffs like you know we did the whole thing with JJ the Chargers offseason this is not slow played by the Broncos totally no you're you're absolutely right and like when you feel that rock solid about one side of the ball and we know like well I mean Bo Nix has already led a team to the playoffs. So if you can do it as a rookie, it's not an unreal realistic expectation that you can do it in year two.

1:33:53Derrik Klassen: So I would say just prove that it wasn't a fluke. I, I don't need, I don't really need anything beyond that. Just get back to the playoffs, prove that it wasn't a fluke, prove that you are part of this AFC landscape. And ideally, you know, 2026, maybe we'll be talking about a super bowl push or a conference championship push, but as long as they prove this year or that last year wasn't a fluke and they get back to the playoffs. I think that's good.

1:34:18Dave Helman: I'm asking, as I often do, a little bit more from them than that. This was a team that like, I think given the way that we've talked about them this offseason, we kind of forget that this was a team that barely squeaked in to the playoffs. Like they lost their week 16 and 17 games and then had to beat the not actually Kansas City Chiefs, Kansas City Chiefs to really get into the playoffs. And we're talking about them like this is a team that should automatically get in. So to me, the success for them is like more convincingly.

1:34:48Derrik Klassen: It's so true. Like the the way that that you knew that that Chiefs game was going to be a blowout within five minutes took so much drama out of that. Yeah. To where like you sort of don't think of them as a team that squeaked in because that game was over immediately. But it could have been dicey. There's a world where it could have been much dicier than it was.

1:35:08Robert Mays: It's funny because my answer to this has nothing to do with final results. But I think if this is the equation, the final results will be what Derek is talking about. Everything else stays the same. You're a top five defense. You have one of the best pass protecting offensive lines in the league. We feel the exact same way about Sean Payton that we do coming out of last year, where he's kind of reminded us that he's one of those guys. And the quarterback takes a significant step forward. If all of that happens, this is an 11 win playoff team. And so I don't even feel like I have to put the 11 wins on it.

1:35:37Robert Mays: Like those are the ingredients that I need from the 2025 Denver Broncos. All right.

1:35:43Derrik Klassen: Let me ask you this. What if Bo is just the same guy? Like what if he doesn't take a step forward, but the Broncos are still like a 10 win team? I still, I think that would be disappointing. Okay.

1:35:57Dave Helman: They would probably be the weirdest thing we would have to talk about coming out of the season.

1:36:03Robert Mays: I think you, the quarterback is 25 and you have built this team to win now based on the amount of resources that you have spent. You are in that window. And I think you have real aspirations. Sean Payton has openly talked about the fact that he's had teams he thought could win the Superbowl and he's putting this team into that conversation. So if the head coach is doing that, I don't think we're wrong in giving them a pretty big bar to clear here.

1:36:29Derrik Klassen: Sean Payton is also like he is a Bill Parcells disciple like he's not afraid of saying some wild shit so that doesn't move me that much because Sean Payton is just such a big personality like I don't see this team as a as a team that's in a Super Bowl window yet like the the the Pat the the skill players are not good enough for me to think this is a Super Bowl contender maybe

1:36:52Robert Mays: maybe I'm wrong so that's maybe one other detail I'll throw into what is a successful season the skilled position players also, I think in lockstep with the quarterback need to get to a place where this is a definitive top half of the league offense and maybe even a little bit better than that. It is very hard to have the 15th best offense in the league and not have like a real ceiling, right? Like, so the Eagles had like the 15th best offense in the league over the course of the whole year last year, but the Eagles in any single moment, because of the talent that they have, have like a new clear option on offense.

1:37:25Robert Mays: If you are not built like that and you are just week in and week out the 16th best offense in the NFL without that sort of ceiling. It's hard to win the Super Bowl. Like you need a all time like season defining defense in order to be a championship caliber team built that way. I think the Broncos defense is going to be good. It's really, really hard to be that sort of defense. And so if the quarterback and the skill position players don't take the sort of step that take you out of that range offensively, I think if you're a Broncos fan and you realize what that means for your championship chances, that's going to be a little bit disappointing.

1:37:58Robert Mays: We're going to take one more quick break, come back with the Las Vegas Raiders and call it a day.

1:38:03Derrik Klassen: Today's episode is sponsored by the ASPCA Pet Health Insurance Program. Question for any pet owners. Of course, we all love our pets, but do you ever think about just how much joy and energy your pet brings to your household? It's something that's been on my mind a lot recently because I spent a healthy chunk of the summer out of town away from our dog Mozzie. And getting back to him really made me think about just how much he does for my quality of life, my mental health, and how I would do anything to keep his derpy little face bopping around next to me for as long as possible. I bring it up because today's episode is sponsored by the ASPCA Pet Health Insurance Program.

1:38:42Derrik Klassen: If you've ever found yourself awake at 2 a.m., phone in hand, Googling things like, is this normal for dogs? Or do I need to call a vet right now, you are not alone. Those unexpected moments are part of having a pet, which is exactly why ASPCA Pet Health Insurance exists. It helps take some of the financial stress out of vet care so you can focus more on your pet and less on the cost. The ASPCA Pet Health Insurance Program offers customizable accident and illness plans that can fit your budget, your lifestyle, and even your pet's particular quirks. Because let's be honest, vet bills can add up fast.

1:39:18Derrik Klassen: ASPCA pet health insurance has been around for almost 30 years and has covered over 1 million pets. And when it's time to submit a claim, it's easy. Just use their app and receive reimbursement for eligible vet bills directly into your bank account so you can get back to focusing on what really matters, your pet. To explore coverage, visit ASPCAPetInsurance.com slash athletic football. That's ASPCAPetInsurance.com slash athletic football. Again, that's ASPCAPet insurance.com slash athletic football. This is a paid advertisement. Insurance is underwritten by either Independence American Insurance Company or United States Fire Insurance Company and produced by PTZ Insurance Agency Limited.

1:39:58Derrik Klassen: The ASPCA is not an insurer and is not engaged in the business of insurance. As I've crept closer to 40, I've tried to stay pretty active, working out five to six

1:40:07Robert Mays: times a week, eating as well as I can most days. But like a lot of people, my energy and recovery just aren't quite what it used to be. The problem for most people trying to optimize their health and performance is that they're flying blind. Maybe you start taking supplements, clean up your diet, change your workouts, but how do you know if any of it is actually working? Every fan can tell you their quarterback's completion percentage, but almost nobody knows their own body's stats, cholesterol, testosterone, inflammation, or vitamin D levels. That's where superpower health comes in. The world's best athletes don't guess about their health.

1:40:37Robert Mays: They have elite medical teams behind them, comprehensive testing, personalized plans, That's how they recover faster, perform better, and stay at their best. Most of us aren't chasing championships anymore, but that doesn't mean we can't take the same data-driven approach to our own health. Superpower is one simple blood draw that gives you information on over 100 of your blood biomarkers. For comparison, your annual physical checkup usually checks around 10 to 15. Superpower looks at 17 different systems throughout your body, including heart health, metabolism, thyroid, inflammation, hormones, and more.

1:41:08Robert Mays: Instead of guessing about what's holding you back, you finally have the data to know what to focus on, all broken down in a single Superpower score. Instead of getting blood work once and filing it away, you have a simple way to track your health over time. As you improve your diet, dial in your workouts, or find the right supplements, you can actually see whether those changes are improving your health. The best part? Anyone can use Superpower. This level of testing isn't reserved for professional athletes anymore. Superpower can send a licensed medical professional to your home, or you can visit a nearby lab.

1:41:37Robert Mays: It starts at just$199 a year, is HSA FSA eligible, and gives regular people access to the kind of proactive, data-driven healthcare that's usually only available to elite athletes. Go beyond your annual checkup and finally understand what's really happening inside your body. For a limited time, our listeners get$20 off to unlock their health membership. Head over to superpower.com and use code ATHLETICFOOTBALL for$20 off your$199 Superpower membership. And after you sign up, they'll ask you how you heard about superpower. Tell them the athletic football show sent you to support the show.

1:42:12Derrik Klassen: This episode is brought to you by Bill, the intelligent finance platform that helps businesses and accounting firms scale with proven results. If you're running a business or managing finance, you know how easy it is to get drowned in software hype. Tools that promise the world, but leave you stuck doing manual grunt work. Stop the guesswork and start scaling with the proven choice. AI-powered efficiency. Their AI-powered accounts payable automation erases the busy work of capturing invoices and routing approvals, syncing seamlessly with top accounting software so you can focus on growth. Proven track record.

1:42:43Derrik Klassen: In finance, unproven tools make no sense. Bill is trusted by nearly half a million businesses and their accountants to manage, move, and maximize their money. And they've securely processed over a trillion dollars in real transactions. Simplifying operations. Bill is not just moving money. they're simplifying financial operations for nearly half a million customers. Talk with a payments expert at bill.com slash proven and get a$150 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com slash proven. Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details.

1:43:16Robert Mays: Our Las Vegas Raiders preview. They're off season in 60 seconds. Hire Pete Carroll as their head coach. Chip Kelly is their OC. Retain Patrick Graham as their DC. Extended Max Crosby, three years, 106 million traded for an extended Gino Smith, two years, 75 million extended Colton Miller, three years, 66 million signed. Jeremy chin two years, 16 million traded for Kenny Pickett and Thomas Booker. This off season brought back Malcolm Coonson, a one-year deal. Adam Butler signed Alex capper, Jermaine Pratt, Eric Stokes, and Landon Roberts, Raheem Mostert in the draft. Ashton Gentry, sixth overall wide receiver, Jack Besh, second over our second round, 58th overall cornerback, Darian Porter in the third round, offensive guard, Caleb Rogers in the third round, offensive tackle Charles Grant in the third round.

1:43:57Robert Mays: Dante Thornton, the wide receiver in the fourth round, defensive tackle Tonka Hemingway in the fourth round. Lost Trayvon Merrick, Nate Hobbs, Robert Spillane in free agency, along with Divine Diablo, and also traded Ja 'Corian Bennett for Thomas Booker. What are you excited about watching, Derek, with the 2025 Raiders?

1:44:16Dave Helman: This offense is going to be so weird, and I'm like really excited to see what it looks like. And there's the reason I say that is. I think this is very clearly going to be a 12 personnel offense. It already was last year, and I just expect that to be true, because I think we're going to get even more from Michael Mayer this year. So they're going to be a 12 personnel offense. And I think you can also make the case that the back is not necessarily their best skill player, but someone who has like pro bowl potential. In my mind, there are only two, maybe three other offenses who are built this way.

1:44:45Dave Helman: You have Buffalo, who I think is built this way. They do a lot of heavier stuff and their back is a really good player. You have the Ravens, who obviously are kind of built the same way. They have Derrick Henry. And then I think you can also make the same case about Detroit. I think you have to check Buffalo and Baltimore off the list. They have the superstars at quarterback. That is a completely different consideration. So they need to be something-ish like what the Lions have been. But even that gets a little bit complicated because Chip Kelly, to me, is someone who wants to be a little bit more from the gun.

1:45:13Dave Helman: Gino Smith is someone who wants to play a little bit more from the gun than the Lions. Like, it's just such a weird construct of how this thing is supposed to be put together that if they can make it work, it's going to be I'm putting them on every Tuesday morning.

1:45:26Robert Mays: Do you think we really have to talk about this team in those terms, though? Because it almost feels like we shouldn't think about them as a 12 personnel team and be like, all right, this is how 12 personnel teams usually succeed. because Brock Bowers is such a dynamic pass catcher that he almost ceases to be a tight end when you think about what he's providing to the offense.

1:45:47Dave Helman: I mean, but isn't that like kind of true of those other offenses? Like Mark Andrews is kind of that at his best. Sam Laporta is that at his best. I don't know. I think Bowers is better than those guys.

1:45:58Robert Mays: That's what I was about to say. You were going to compare Brock Bowers to Sam Laporta and Mark Andrews?

1:46:03Dave Helman: I mean, he's better than those guys, But in terms of like the way that you use them, it's probably not all that different. So like in terms of of like the process of using them, I don't think it's supposed to look that crazy or that different.

1:46:16Robert Mays: I feel like in some ways Brock Bowers to me almost ceases to be a tight end. Like he had 112 catches for 1200 yards last year as like the focal point of the passing game. like I almost I understand where you're coming from but I think that he's just in a different space when it comes to the pecking order and how he's deployed as a receiver than any of those guys and so I don't I get what you're saying I just don't think we have to limit this team to the other 12 personnel teams because their 12 personnel just feels a little bit different than all of those teams at least a little bit then what does it look like it's a great question I don't know

1:46:51Dave Helman: because then like I don't know who it's supposed to look like who like who is that that style of players. It's just such a, but that again, that's why this is so exciting. Like they are. That's the fun thing about having a unicorn.

1:47:01Derrik Klassen: Exactly.

1:47:02Robert Mays: That's the fun thing about having a unicorn player. Well, I mean the last, I think the best possible comparison, and I don't know if he's necessarily going to be this guy, but a tight end that really wasn't used that much like a tight end when this offense was at its best is what Travis Kelsey was for the chiefs. And I will say, you're going to say, well, what about the Patrick Mahomes part of this? We're going to throw Patrick Mahomes in with the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson thing. Travis Kelsey was an absurdly productive player as a fake tight end on those teams in Kansas city when Alex Smith was the quarterback.

1:47:34Robert Mays: So I think once again, I am going to compare this team to the early Andy Reed chiefs teams with Alex Smith, because I think that's one more similarity that they have along with like the 20 other ones that they have.

1:47:47Dave Helman: That might be the answer. That's actually really good. I like that a lot.

1:47:51Robert Mays: so good teams by the way yes very good teams and i think that was always to me the the vision for what the raiders were trying to do going out and getting p carroll and trading for geno smith kind of felt like the the chiefs going out and trading for alex smith and hiring andy reid i don't say andy reid is younger than p carroll is now but that like instant credibility instant competency at those two spots even if the quarterback is a little bit older i do think that was like the best path forward here. And I think it's a similar deal. Like those early chiefs offenses were weird as hell. They had a season where they did not throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.

1:48:25Robert Mays: We might have another one considering Jacoby Myers is history with touchdown scoring and what brought Bowers and Michael Mayer are going to be here. This is what we're talking about.

1:48:35Derrik Klassen: That's like, that's one of those stats that like was so ingrained in my brain at one point, but I just haven't needed to think about it. Like it's like I found my exercise bike after two years of using it as, as a laundry hamper. Like I had forgotten that ever happened.

1:48:52Robert Mays: I'm looking forward to watching how weird this offense is and Chip Kelly, like what is Chip Kelly at this stage as an offensive coordinator? Like we'll talk about that a little bit more, but there are a lot of layers of intrigue to this group and I cannot wait to turn it on. when we get to week one. Let's talk about these swing points for the 2025 Raiders. Derek, what do you got?

1:49:13Dave Helman: It's the thing I've talked about probably the most other than the cool parts of the offense when we've talked about this team this offseason. The offensive line still to me is like, there's a chance it's nice, right? Like Colton Miller is a solid left tackle. I think JPJ, there's some optimism for what he can be, especially now that I think he's going to settle in at guard, which in my opinion, probably is better for him. And so I think that that makes a lot of sense. There's some excitement about the way that like DJ Glaze played last year. Like there's some hope for optimism with a lot of young pieces on this offensive line.

1:49:43Dave Helman: It was also one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year. Like they in terms of yards before contact, they were at one point zero eight, which was dead last last year. And so I know the running back or the run game was bad because of the running backs. But it was also bad in part because the offensive line I don't really think was moving people. And so I think some of the quarterback issues stemmed into that. I think some of the lack of really good offensive play calling stemmed into that. But is Chip Kelly going to raise that to like, you know, 32 to 25? Or can he actually really unlock something with a lot of these young pieces?

1:50:14Dave Helman: I think it's it's a lot of to be seen.

1:50:17Robert Mays: Yeah, I think every once in a while, I can completely understand where you're coming from, where they're going to roll with the same offensive line personnel. Why would we expect different results? the ecosystem and like what the offensive coordinator is building from a run game perspective can have more of an impact on this thing than the offensive line talent individually sometimes that's i think you're trying to convince yourself that what ship kelly had built over the last few years and i feel like it's probably gonna be more ucla than it was ohio state based on like what other people around the league believe about this offense but ship kelly really being able to just construct a run game that's a little bit better put together than the one we saw last year and then appreciable steps from some of those offensive line pieces.

1:50:57Robert Mays: I think that's the answer. And that, that to me is what we're talking about here. I'm the exact same spot as you. For me, it's the offensive line is the swing point of this team. And so DJ glaze at right tackle, I think played well enough last year to deserve walking into this year with the right tackle job. That's what I would say about that. Jordan Meredith, I actually thought played some really good football for them last year and like spot duty at guard. and when they signed Alex Kappa, part of me was like, oh, that's interesting. I actually thought that Jordan Merida played pretty well last year and kind of wanted to see him again and then they just moved him to center and moved Jackson Powers Johnson to guard.

1:51:32Robert Mays: And so that five, that was the five that in the back half of last season, I was kind of like, all right, like I can get behind this. And so to see them roll with that five, that's what I wanted to see. But can DJ Glaze go from being a guy who had enough flashes to deserve a starting job this year to somebody who takes a significant step forward. That's not always the case for these day two offensive linemen that have a little kernel of something. Like it's not guaranteed that development is going to happen. And Jackson Powers Johnson, same kind of deal. And then the other thing you're throwing in here, their offensive line coach is Pete Carroll's son.

1:52:07Robert Mays: And he has never been an NFL offensive line coach before. He was an assistant offensive line coach a couple of different times. And then he was an offensive line coach and coordinator for both Arizona and Washington under Jet Fish over the last three or four years. So do you have the right development circumstances for a lot of those young guys who you need to take a step forward? I'm open to the answer being yes, but I think whatever way that goes is literally going to be the swing point for the 2025 Raiders.

1:52:34Derrik Klassen: This is going to sound tongue in cheek. I don't mean it to be, though. how much does it alleviate any concern that your quarterback has a PhD in dealing with, we'll call it unideal circumstances in the pocket?

1:52:49Robert Mays: It's funny that I actually care more about what they're doing in the run game than I do about what they're doing in pass protection. Like that's probably the more pressing thing for me right now, right or wrong. That's, I guess, just how I'm framing it.

1:53:00Dave Helman: I think that one, that thing always depends. Cause it's like the quarterbacks who are really good at mitigating pressure I think they can withstand that up until the offensive line is like 26th or worse and then it's just like nobody can handle this and so it's like if they can clear that bar which like in in Seattle the 2022 team did and they were fine the 2024 team did not and that was part of why I think the offense looked the way that it did so if the offensive line in Las Vegas can just clear that bar Gino will probably be fine

1:53:31Robert Mays: Dave, what is your swing point for the 2025 Raiders?

1:53:35Derrik Klassen: We all love Brock Bowers. We're all super excited about him. I think that and, and, and Jinty, the success of the run game can mitigate this, but at the end of the day, you do still have wide receivers. Even if you play a lot of 12 personnel, you're going to have two of them on the field. And the most established one might want out of Las Vegas. Jacoby Myers requested a trade apparently, which I don't, I don't know why the Raiders would grant that. I guess if somebody, you know, if, if a Vikings or a similar team were that desperate for receiver help, maybe the price is so good that you don't turn it down.

1:54:13Derrik Klassen: But I mean, it's not good anyway, right? Like behind Jacoby Myers, you got Trey Tucker who had like an encouraging season on a bad team. You got a handful of, I mean, you got three rookies really like Dante Thornton is the one that's getting all of the press right now. Jack Besh as well. And then you had Tommy Mellet in the, on day three. So three guys that have never done this. And then they just added Amari Cooper for a nice little Raiders reunion. Maybe Amari just didn't want to do training camp. I don't know, but I'm not getting super jacked with the, with the amount of injuries that Amari he's dealt with over the last couple of years.

1:54:52Derrik Klassen: I'm not getting super jacked about that. So even if you don't need to lean heavily on your receivers in this offense, you still probably want more than this.

1:55:01Robert Mays: And Dante Thornton, I mean, it feels like he's getting that job because Jack Besh, I feel like they consider like the heir apparent to what Jacoby Myers is in terms of skill sets. And so that's why it feels like Thornton's getting that first crack. And for the Amari Cooper part of this, it almost feels like this isn't worth it. Like it kind of reminds me of the Keenan Allen thing. It's just like, just roll with the kids. Like what does adding Amari Cooper at this stage do for you? Unless you are truly terrified of what you're going to get from those outside receivers, it almost feels like it would be more valuable this year to let them take their lumps a little bit than have this version of Amari Cooper taking 500 snaps for you.

1:55:40Robert Mays: Like, I just don't get why that's beneficial to like the multi-year plan for the Raiders.

1:55:45Derrik Klassen: Acquiring Amari makes a ton of sense for a Buffalo who's like, we just need a guy who can just give us a little something extra to try to get us into the AFC title game. Even though Amari was hurt for a lot of that run, like that's why you do that. If you're close to getting over the hump, Amari Cooper at this stage in his career on a team like this, and I love Amari, but it just feels more like a progress stopper than anything. I agree with you.

1:56:10Robert Mays: I feel bad for Jacoby Myers. All Jacoby Myers does is like be a pretty good player and all the teams he played for are like, yeah, we don't really feel like paying you. This was fun, but I think, I think we're okay. Again, last year, he's just a good player who doesn't seem to have staying power with any of these teams. I think in New England, he's a late round pick. That tends to follow you around. And with the Raiders, he's in a spot where this is not the regime that brought him on. And I assume they're not overly enthused about paying someone to be a part of the future when they don't really know which direction this is all going to go.

1:56:43Robert Mays: But it leaves Jacoby Myers in a pretty shitty spot.

1:56:46Dave Helman: he's like the best always a bridesmaid never a bride receiver in the nfl which is a weird spot to be in but i mean i guess he's had a decent career still nobody gets excited about a high

1:56:57Derrik Klassen: end too which is sucks for him and that's exactly what jacoby myers is i can't wait for jacoby

1:57:02Robert Mays: myers to be on a contender next year and like play meaningful football deep into the season what is keeping you up at night dave about the las vegas raiders this year

1:57:13Derrik Klassen: can the defense be anything like can the defense be better than a unit that completely submarines this season which is what I'm worried that it could be particularly on the back end like you look at some of the guys that look like they're going to be playing major roles I've always been a big fan of Jeremy Chen's game going all the way back to Carolina I liked the addition in Washington last year. I'm a lot less excited about Jeremy Chin when Eric Stokes is a starting corner and the other corner job is up for grabs between a rookie and Darian Porter and a handful of guys that like haven't played meaningful snaps in the NFL.

1:57:58Derrik Klassen: You could say similar things about the safety position, whether it's like, you know, couple year pros who haven't done a whole lot or newcomers. Obviously, I love, hey, Max Crosby is the man. He's one of my favorite players in the entire NFL, but I don't think you can build the whole thing out of Max Crosby. And the secondary looks like a group that could have you not where you want to be in all the stat sheets.

1:58:25Dave Helman: This defense feels too much like when I look at the Cincinnati Bengals depth chart, where it's last year in particular, where it's like, man, I really like the defensive coordinator in minds with Pete Carroll and Patrick Graham. and you've got one like monster pass rusher, everything else is a question mark. You even have literally Jermaine Pratt who was on that team last year, which I think is kind of funny.

1:58:45Robert Mays: But at least the Bengals had like young, highly drafted player. At least you had hope. All right, maybe this could work out. The Raiders don't even have that. They've got like all reclamation projects or aging pieces from all these other teams. This is where Patrick Graham is really going to have to make his money. And a couple of years ago, I don't think anyone believed that the Raiders were an overwhelmingly talented defense and they finished by the end of the season, like top 10, top 12 in a lot of metrics. Patrick Graham is a really good defensive coordinator. I think it would require actual wizardry from him to get there with this group.

1:59:20Robert Mays: The defensive backroom, I mean, I think Darian Porter eventually gets that job because why not, right? Like, let's just give him a shot and see what we have. And I think that's why they've made the moves that they did trading Ja 'Cory and Bennett, all of that. Eric Stokes played 17 games last year as like a spot player. He started seven of them. If you look at the last couple of seasons before 2024, he played three games in 2023 and nine games in 2022. Like the idea that he's just going to be a surefire starter for them all year. We're going to be holding on for our hats with a hold, not our hats with this defense.

1:59:52Robert Mays: Like they were never going to be able to do enough in year one. There are a lot of just plugging holes and can we get by for the year with what's going on here? And again, I think they're going to be asking a lot of Patrick Graham, who I think is fantastic at his job. But I don't think anyone could really do enough with this group as currently constructed.

2:00:13Derrik Klassen: Devin White and Jamal Adams are on the TV for this team. I actually that early in the preseason, I think it was week one. We were doing the preseason reaction show and I was like watching a Raiders game. And this dude was just flying around, just making every play. And I was like, this is fun. Who's this guy? And I realized it was Jamal Adams. And I was like, that's not as fun as I thought it was. That's not cool anymore. You don't want to be making every play in a preseason game if you were drafted in 2017.

2:00:42Robert Mays: That's not the goal. And Derek, I think what you're watching the first month of the season is that like very weird linebacker group.

2:00:48Dave Helman: It is. And like we can start with the backups. It's the fact that Jamal Adams and Devin White, who are you have one guy who is not by trade a linebacker, even though he's done some of that in his career in Jamal Adams. And then you have Devin White, who is like five years removed from playing any sort of serious like like high level football. So that part of it is completely bizarre. And then their starters. I truly adore Landon Roberts. He's one of my favorite, like relative to quality. He is one of my favorite players in the league, but he's like a spot starter quality linebacker. And so the fact that they're jumping into the season with him as their guy, I think is a little bit interesting.

2:01:26Dave Helman: And then next to him is Jermaine Pratt, who is very funny body type wise next to Landon Roberts, because the Landon Roberts is built like a fire hydrant, short, squatty, all that stuff. Jermaine Pratt is big, long. You want to kind of put him on the edge sometimes because he can set the edge that way. It's just the and neither of these guys can cover really well. Like it's just such a funny mix that they've got in this linebacker room that I don't know how it's supposed to work other than you hope that these guys are like really, really good run defenders. And that just lets you unleash the pass rush.

2:01:55Dave Helman: I don't know.

2:01:57Robert Mays: What do we think success looks like for the 2025 Raiders, Dave?

2:02:03Derrik Klassen: Just look like a team that traded for Geno Smith and added Pete Carroll. Like that's that's all I want. I just I want meaningful football late in the year, like trade wins and losses. Let's avoid the 10 game losing streak. Let's avoid the midseason firing, which obviously I don't anticipate that happening with Pete Carroll. I just I want this team to win some surprising games. Be a tough out. Overcome your defense a couple of times. upset somebody you're not supposed to. And at the end of the season, if you have, let's say, I would say seven or more wins for the Raiders would be successful. Like if they win six, that's fine.

2:02:44Derrik Klassen: But if you win seven games with this version of the team, now we can get excited about what you're going to add next year and who you might be after that. That's kind of where I'm at.

2:02:54Robert Mays: Where is that? What is the 2026 prognosis based on how this season goes? And I think a lot of that is, did you hire the right people in the most important positions or acquire the right people in the most important positions? Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, SpyTech. Do we feel the stability? You went out and you tried to find stability. Do we feel that? And on offense, does it feel like you've got a little bit of a runway over the next couple years where this is going to be a group that with another offseason can be the type of offense that keeps you competitive? and with the amount of money that you have to spend next year, which is like 80 million, can you do enough on defense where we feel like you can be relatively competitive by next season?

2:03:37Robert Mays: If the answer to all of that stuff is yes, I think that is a successful season for the Raiders, even if they're like a 6-11 team this year.

2:03:43Dave Helman: That's pretty much how I feel. Ideally, you knock on the door of the wild card by the end, but that might not happen with the way that the defense is going to look. But to me, it's just like with the offense, can we feel like we've got at least a two more years after this year runway to be like, OK, we can really do something like this to me, like this team was a little bit better when they acquired the quarterback. But like the Arizona Cardinals acquired Carson Palmer when he was exactly 34 years old, the way that the Raiders are now with Geno Smith. And they had like two or three more years of runway with how good that offense looked.

2:04:13Dave Helman: If they can at least show some kernels of like having that type of arc, then that's success.

2:04:19Robert Mays: and I do think if they were in a lesser division I would believe in the ceiling of the offense to where I if you wanted me to make a case for them being like a surprising wildcard team I could do it I think in the AFC West that's really difficult and with the defense that's really difficult but if this is one of those offenses that we are really excited to watch by week 10 I wouldn't be shocked by that and I think that's a necessary part of the equation here if we're going to feel good about where the Raiders are by the end of the season they're a team that I want to watch play

2:04:46Derrik Klassen: which is not something you can take for granted with the Raiders over the last 20 years. So that's a good starting point.

2:04:52Robert Mays: Gino really helps with that Gino inherently watchable NFL quarterback. That is all we've got for today. We are, we got six of these down. Now we got two more division previews to go tomorrow. We're going to be rolling with the NFC West before we close it out with the AFC North on Friday. Sincerely appreciate you guys sticking around for all these. We've had a great time doing them. We'll be back tomorrow. Appreciate you listening. Talk to you soon.

2:05:46Derrik Klassen: That's 5 % cash back at different places each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash 5 for details.