2025 NFC South preview

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1:01Robert Mays: Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. The NFC South preview is today. Me, Derek Klassen, Dave Hellman. I really enjoyed this conversation. I'm more interested in this division than I thought I would be coming into the off season, but there's a lot to be excited about here. We got some young quarterbacks. We got a team with the bucks that is just consistently very good. It was one of the best offenses in the league last year. We hit all of it in depth. So let's just get to that conversation with me, Dave and Derek right now.

1:33Robert Mays: It's NFC South day on the athletic football show. And Derek, I am of the opinion that this division gets too much unnecessary flack. I'm genuinely looking forward to several of the conversations that we're going to have on this show. Are we going to talk about the weird Saints team that's quarterbacked by some combination of Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shuck? Yes. But other than that, I find the other two, three teams in this division really intriguing. And I am genuinely excited about digging into this.

2:03Dave Helman: OK, so that's why I think this is going to be really fun, because I think I am of the opinion that I don't really care so much about the other three teams. And I am weirdly interested in the Saints. So this is going to be a very bizarre conversation.

2:14Robert Mays: You have been on one all week. I mean, you picking Josh Connerly to win offensive rookie of the year. Like, I just I'm really impressed by the weird energy that you brought to this entire process.

2:23Dave Helman: If everyone is going to be all in on the Washington narrative, I mean, somebody's got to be the beneficiary of that.

2:29Robert Mays: OK, but the Saints, that's disgusting. But we'll get we'll get to it. It's fine. Dave, I know that you're like a weird NFC South sicko. So I can I feel like we're kindred spirits here and how we're approaching this show.

2:40Derrik Klassen: This is the division I grew up in. So, yeah, I am. And I think it's funny because I am I'm a cynical person in my day to day life. I think most people would say that, but in my football watching life, I want to believe the best about people. I want things to be good. I want to see the best case scenario. I want people to have hope for their team. So I've become a little bit of an NFC South weirdo here over the last three years where I'm like, there's more going on here than the Bucs. And by the way, not enough people like the Bucs either. So I'm happy to wear that mantle. I will ride for this division anytime.

3:17Derrik Klassen: time.

3:18Robert Mays: Speaking of the Bucs, here's our Bucs preview for the 2025 season. They're off season in 60 seconds. Josh Grisard promoted to offensive coordinator from past game coordinator. They kept Kevin Carberry, their offensive line coach and promoted him to the run game coordinator. Retained Chris Godwin, three years, 66 million,$44 million guaranteed. Hassan Hassan Redick, one year,$14 million. Brought back Ben Bredesen, who was on a cheap deal last year, three years, 22 million, 12 and a half guaranteed. Retained Levante David, one year, 9 million. He's going to be getting that contract into perpetuity until we're all like 70 years old.

3:50Robert Mays: In the draft, Emeka Obuka in the first round, 19th overall. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison in the second round. Doubled up on corner with Jacob Parrish in the third round, 84th overall. Drafted edge David Walker in the fourth round. He is out for the season, unfortunately. Lost Robert Hainsey and Joe Tryon Shainka in free agency. Let's dig into it. Derek, what are you excited about watching with the 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

4:14Dave Helman: i i did i did some simple math here to pick my answer the most exciting part about this team in general is the offense and the only really new exciting thing that they did around the offense was drafting a muka uh mecca book in the first round so i'm just really excited to see how that turns out i think i believed that from the moment they drafted him before we knew about like how long is godwin's timeline going to be like is jalen mcmillan going to be banged up all that's before we knew any of that it was fascinating to me that they decided they wanted to get out ahead of having so many of these older receivers and go out and draft the Mecca Buka.

4:46Dave Helman: Maybe it's again, maybe it was contingency plan for those guys. Maybe it was them just wanting to stave off some regression with all the change that they were going to have and just load up on as much receiver as talent as possible. But he is I think he was weirdly universally agreed upon as like if any wide receiver just comes in as a rookie and has like 900 very solid yards, it's going to be a Mecca Buka. And I'm very excited to see how that unfolds for him this year.

5:09Robert Mays: What do you think about his ceiling as a player? because I think he's been painted as this guy who can walk in from day one and be a useful player in an NFL offense. And every single report from Buck's training camp is that this is a 10-year pro who is going to have the exact season that you're talking about. But I wonder, is there another gear to this, especially if Chris Godwin misses significant time and he's going to be put into a role where he's getting a Chris Godlin-esque workload in this offense? I may or may not be asking you this because I ended up with a Mecca Buka in my rookie draft earlier this week.

5:43Robert Mays: And now I'm trying to figure out how excited I should be about this.

5:46Dave Helman: I mean, I tend to think that you should be pretty excited. He's never going to be as explosive as, you know, some of the Brian Thomas juniors that we got last year, Malik neighbors, any of those guys. But like if he is, I don't know, the ninth best receiver in the way that like a Monroe St. Brown can be where he's just incredibly stable, really good blocker. You can move him around a little bit inside and outside, just incredibly tough and reliable. I think that is that's probably his best outcome. But I again, given that I expect him to at least get whatever his B minus outcome is, I won't be shocked if by year four, year five, he looks like that kind of player.

6:20Derrik Klassen: You know why all these people like a Buka so much, right? I figured this out over the last couple of weeks. It's because, yeah, if you watched the highlights, you probably saw his catch against Pittsburgh. You know what he can do as a receiver, but they trust him to do the dirty work. Like they trusted Mecca Ibuka. By and large, a rookie receiver is not going to come in and be a guy that you can count on to go, you know, get across the formation and just drive the safety out of the play. Right. But I think they trust him to do that. That's what people talk about when they say he's a high IQ player.

6:54Derrik Klassen: He can do all that stuff. He's not just here to catch the football. And in my experience, that gets coaches very excited.

7:01Robert Mays: I'm not sure if I'm being just too reductionist here because they're playing in the same team with the same uniform. But the way that Chris Godwin is a really good receiver in the NFL feels like the way that a Mecca Buka in a lot of different facets can be a really good receiver in the NFL. Maybe that's too simple of an answer, but that's just one of the first guys that comes to mind. It's like Chris Godwin, when healthy in the right situations, has been unbelievably productive. And it feels like a Mecca Buka can be similar to that archetype of player.

7:28Dave Helman: and what's funny is that like with god i think with godwin in general it's like okay he's a decent yak player but he's not super fast he just has like great vision and he's tough and all this stuff but like a buka is the same way i mean we envisioned we envisioned a buka as like this oh slot you know he blocks he catches over the middle all that stuff but like all their designery shit last year in the ohio state offense was for him and you know we don't imagine him being that kind of speed guy but he's just really good with the ball in his hands what i'm most excited about

7:55Robert Mays: watching with the Bucs is that this was the most exciting offense in the league last year for stretches of what you last season when you're removing truly elite quarterback play like the best quarterbacks in the league this was probably the offense I enjoyed watching the most last season there were so many layers to what made this offense great whether it was some of the things they schemed up in the passing game like go watch go to YouTube and if there's like a Jalen McMillan highlight reel. Just go watch that because it's really just a Liam Cohen highlight reel. Like that is a look at the structure of this thing and how easy we're making it on the players.

8:31Robert Mays: If you look at some of the numbers Baker had on just throws behind the line of scrimmage, I mean, the only team I think that actually might've been dead last. I think they were dead last in the league and air yards to the sticks. The Bucks were last year and they were one of the most dynamic offenses in football and Baker through 41 touchdowns. This thing and the levers that they were pulling with Liam Cohen. And that's before you even get to the run game, which was incredibly well-designed. Bucky Irving comes in and adds an entire another gear to this thing. Mike Evans is still playing at an incredibly high level.

9:00Robert Mays: And oh yeah, this might be one of the best four or five offensive lines in the league with a quarterback that, even if he's an imperfect player, he's fun as shit to watch. I mean, what he's bringing every single week, I'm happy to tune in for it. So I know we're gonna talk about some of the barriers to them being that sort of offense again. But just in terms of appointment viewing on a Sunday or on a Monday when I'm turning on an offense that I think probably did something cool yesterday, this is near the top of the list. And I'm just excited about what the encore presentation looks like.

9:33Derrik Klassen: It would be that much closer to the top of the list if they could stop getting banged up, though. And that's one of the downsides here. I was so much more excited. And I still am. I still am excited about the Bucs. But before we started doing previews, like back in June, when I was formulating the stuff I wanted to say on the show, I was ready to say that I thought the Bucks were a slam dunk Super Bowl contender. Like I would have I would have put them at the table. And then Tristan Wirfs needs a knee scope. And Chris Godwin, we know, isn't going to be back until October. Now, Jalen McMillan has this neck strain where he had they're already saying he's out for half the year.

10:11Derrik Klassen: they can overcome that stuff, but it dampens my excitement a little bit. Like instead of this is a super bowl contender and people need to know about it. Now I'm like, ah, I hope they can reach that ceiling.

10:24Robert Mays: Let's spin it positively for a second. Like the best case scenario here, Godwin and worse. I believe, I think Godwin got taken off the pop list and his timeline returned to play is potentially like early October. So let's just say a booker can hold down that number two receiver role within the offense until Godwin gets back and you drop Godwin even as a slightly diminished version of himself back into this thing in October with Tristan Wirfs at the same time and Josh Grisard who we're going to talk about here in a second gives you something in the realm of what Liam Cohen did last year we can get there like it might be a little bit harder but we can get there and I'm trying to believe in that version of this thing because I want to watch it again well and like for me it's I do not think they will be as

11:07Dave Helman: good as they were last year even if everything goes right however if the passing game is as good as it was in 2023 and then the run game is like competent in a way that in 2023 they had none of then like yeah this is still I don't know the 12th best offense in the NFL which again is not as exciting as last year but still pretty dang good let's get to the swing points for the 2025 Tampa

11:29Robert Mays: Bay Buccaneers Derek why don't you kick us off where could this year pivot in your mind for the Bucs?

11:35Dave Helman: I think it kind of has to be Hassan Reddick for me. Like this was I know that this was a Bucs team where if you look at pressure rates and stuff, they weren't that bad. But that's because Todd Bulls is an insane person and turned up the pressure dial a lot. And they were just throwing a lot of bodies at the problem. But I think when you watched on like a player quality basis, this was just not a team that outside of Yaya Diaby really had guys off the edge who could get to the quarterback. They are making a huge bet on Hassan Reddick, who did not play a lot of football last year to really be like a huge, huge contributor.

12:05Dave Helman: And there's a chance that he can do it because in the handful of years before last season, he was one of the most like surefire. This guy's going to get 11 sacks and we don't even have to think about it type of players. It's just that when you take, you know, kind of a year off of football and are, you know, transitioning to another new team. I just wonder what that's what that's going to look like.

12:24Robert Mays: Let's say that doesn't happen. Hassan Raddick is going to turn 31 a month from today. so this is age 31 season and he did not play football for the most part last year if this does not go well how concerned are you about the current state of the bucks pass rush on the bucks

12:41Dave Helman: front overall pretty concerned because they they didn't really do any other things like i know that they've drafted a couple of other guys but you mentioned and they lost walker for the year right they already the guy that they drafted to potentially help them here is already out for the year and like again none of the other guys to me on the roster are like big time pass rushers Like I think Anthony Nelson is a smart player who gives them some stuff in terms of like the drop into coverage flexibility. But he's not a superior pass rusher. And Chris Braswell, I think, is a really good run defending number two edge.

13:10Dave Helman: He's not a pass rusher. And so if they're not going to get any of these other guys to contribute the way that they would need them to, they either, again, really need Redick to be this player or like Kalisha Cansey just becomes Grady Jarrett, which I mean, I guess could happen. But that also doesn't solve the edge issue. So I don't know.

13:26Derrik Klassen: It definitely won't be good. I'm not as concerned as I would be just because of who is coaching the Bucs defense. Derek, I think you and I talked about this a few weeks ago. We talked about Hasan Reddick as a potential DNA changer for this team. And the funny thing about the Bucs is even without dominant edge rushers, they're top three in the league in sacks since Bowles got to Tampa Bay. And we know he loves to blitz. He loves to bring pressure. They'll get pressure. By hook or by crook, they'll do it. But that's why I think it's so important because it is it's such a floor raiser if you have that guy who can do it on the edge without needing to send extra people.

14:06Derrik Klassen: So I think they can get by, but I think it will make them so much more dangerous and such a better team if Redick is that guy.

14:14Dave Helman: Yeah, if all the extra shit that you're doing to get to the quarterback is at the expense of also giving up a bunch of other passes, then it's just it's ultimately not worth it. And I think that's why they've arrived at taking the swing on a guy like Riddick.

14:26Robert Mays: I wanted to look up a number while you guys were talking. I had done this earlier today. I was trying to find it. They were bottom eight in the NFL in past defense success rate when blitzing last year, according to NextGen. So they do blitz a lot. It's not necessarily a good thing that they have to blitz that much. They were the only team in the league that blitzed on more than half of the other team's third down dropbacks last year. And we'll talk about the secondary in a second. And there's a chance the secondary is better. And that makes the formula they're using on defense a little bit easier to live with.

14:58Robert Mays: But if you're I just think back to like the 2021 version of this team, and I know that that's a long time ago now. But when you have dudes and you're bringing five all the time, that's when things start to feel overwhelming. And that's when you watch this version of the Bucks defense. It feels erratic in what they're having to do, not overwhelming. And I think transitioning back to that is that's what you're trying to do by bringing in a guy like Hassan Reddick and hoping the combination of him, Kansi, Diaby can all collectively bring this group together in a way that just hasn't over the last couple of years.

15:31Derrik Klassen: totally and yeah when we talked about it they haven't had a reliable guy on the edge since Shaq Barrett was doing his thing back when they were a Super Bowl contender and you're so right I mean for as good of a reputation as Todd Bowles has they wound up in shootouts a lot last year like it's definitely it's not a fun way to live and that's why I do have really high hopes for what Reddick can be because it again it changes the DNA of that defense if there is somebody that can win without needing to send the extra pressure.

16:03Robert Mays: My swing point here is just what Baker Mayfield looks like in high leverage situations, because he was incredible in high leverage situations last year. He was second in the NFL and drop back success rate on third down, only behind Patrick Mahomes. The Bucks as a team last year, per true media had the sixth best third down conversion rate of the past 25 years. if you look at it and the teams that are on that list it's like the 2011 saints the 2006 colts the 2004 vikings and dante culpeppers like mvp-esque season with randy moss the 2001 rams the 2022 bills like for the most part these are historically good offenses or offenses with mvp level quarterback play so i just wonder if they're they're going to fall off that's not going to happen again, how much of a fall off is there?

16:56Robert Mays: And this extends not just to what's happening on third down, but what's happening when things get really dirty and muddy for Baker Mayfield specifically. We talked about this a little bit earlier in the summer, Derek, but if you look at the numbers when he was pressured, the only guys who had a higher drop back success rate when pressured last year than Baker Mayfield per next gen were Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, and Joe Burrow. He was third in the NFL in EPA per drop back behind Lamar and Allen on plays where he was pressured. If you look at the last five or so years, he was above average in 2023, but not overwhelmingly good.

17:28Robert Mays: He was near the top of the league in EPA per dropback, but in 2022, he was dead last in success rate when pressured, and he was bottom four in 2021. This has been an issue for him. It's just the last couple of years have been better, and last year was significantly better. If this goes from top three-ish rates and all of this stuff that's not always sticky down outside the top 10 again, what does that mean overall for the Bucs offense?

17:54Dave Helman: And it's probably not going to be sticky because the guys who end up in the top five or six in a lot of those categories in a given year, you get, you know, the Josh Allens or Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson's guys who over time have proven that they have that sort of skillset. And then you get a handful of guys who just like kind of had a very fortunate season. And that's more how I feel about Baker Mayfield. And that's not to totally take away from him. Like we've talked about it on different shows. he's a much better scrambler now than I think he was earlier in his career and that is certainly part of it and I do think when you watch him he is a little bit more structured and a little bit more stable and a little bit more settled in the pocket and willing to make some of those throws like in in 2020 even in 2023 I was like okay he's doing some good stuff but he still has a ways to go here 2024 that really felt like the big move up for him um but again even with that in mind he's still not Lamar Jackson he's still not Josh like he's still not one of those guys it's a lot more likely that he is and the passing offense is I don't know again 11th 12th 13th in a lot of these categories than him repeating top five and a lot of that stuff I think this team will be good and

18:58Robert Mays: I'm excited about it one of my just kind of lingering doubts and bits of skepticism here is that they just went on like a heater at the craps table for six straight hours last year

19:07Dave Helman: like that's what it feels like and Baker's that kind of quarterback right like he's just gonna to do shit. And when it looks good, it looks good.

19:14Robert Mays: And the scramble thing is a great thing to bring up. I mean, he was one of the most efficient scramblers in the league last season. Only Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Kyler created more EPA on scrambles last year when pressured than Baker Mayfield. So that's kind of what I mean. Like there were elements of luck here and how this went in some of these non-sticky areas. You throw the screen game in there too and how hot they ran on screens last year. So just where does all of this fall to me is one of the areas where this season will pivot for the Bucs. Let's get to what's keeping us up at night about this Tampa Bay team.

19:46Robert Mays: Dave, why don't you kick us off? What is keeping you up at night about the Buccaneers? You know, I just gave Todd Bowles

19:52Derrik Klassen: a big vote of confidence a minute ago, but I'm looking over this team and if we can separate ourselves from the aura of Levante David, have you looked at the depth chart for the rest of the linebackers on this team? Like other than Levante David, who's 35 and he's still playing well. I'm not trying to say that he's completely fallen off a cliff, but it's 35 year old Levante David. And then, and then what? Cause Anthony Walker is like the other veteran. He hasn't had a training camp. It sounds like he's on his way back, but he's not back right now. Dennis Cervasier is the next name that you probably need to know.

20:32Derrik Klassen: Cervasier Dennis. I serve. see that that's the problem right there i don't think he's that bad i think he's kind of like

20:41Dave Helman: okay he's good moving forward backwards in coverage we've talked about this coverage unit

20:45Derrik Klassen: but moving forward he's not that bad is it is it enough to feel like that is like that's your only line of defense from like the back end of your depth chart i have to believe that servasier

20:58Robert Mays: dennis could be a good nfl player because i need servasier dennis to be a prominent part of my life

21:02Derrik Klassen: I mean it is an incredible name Deion Jones is on this step chart guys Okay that one I'm not going to defend It's that ship has sailed I'm sorry Not in the big 2025 you're not Yeah and so It feels like you're asking Levante David To do a lot of heavy lifting at the age of 35 Which to this point in his career He has been capable of that But devil's advocate The cliff comes for all Even sports hipsters favorite linebacker I mean by the way he still is fine

21:31Robert Mays: there was a play in the Washington game in the wildcard game where Jaden Daniels is scrambling and he chases Jaden Daniels down on the third down and like knocks him out of bounds at the sticks and I was just like good lord 34 year old Levante David the the devil's advocate point here is that the Bucks other linebacker other than Levante David has been bad for a very long time like since Devin White had that hot stretch a couple years ago this has been a concern for this team. And I do think if all the other pieces on the defense, which we'll talk about here in a second are better than they've been over the last couple of years, they can survive.

22:06Derrik Klassen: How like, how much confidence do you have that all of that stuff happens though?

22:10Robert Mays: Well, let's get to that. What I'm watching for the first month of the season here with the boxes, what is this DB room shake out? Like, because they drafted two guys on day two that I think had a chance to start coming into this season. Jacob Parrish, I think is going to be this team's nickel corner from day one. They're moving Tykee Smith, who also had some really impressive moments last year as their nickel. I think he is a good player. He's moving to the other safety spot next to Antoine Whitfield. Jacob Parrish is going to be the nickel here. And then Benjamin Morrison has been banged up a little bit in camp.

22:40Robert Mays: And so it sounds like they're going to start the season with Jamel Dean at that right cornerback spot. But if Benjamin Morrison can eventually crack the lineup, overtake him, and now we have kind of what amounts to three new starters in the secondary with Zion McCollum, who's a solid player and with Antoine Winfield Jr. And this is a group that goes from shaky and uneven to something that we can really trust and becomes a strength of this defense. Then I do think that we can be just talking about a different sort of unit. Like we'll just feel different about the Bucks defense over the course of the year.

23:14Robert Mays: That's like a pie in the sky version of this. But if that happens, then that's one of the things that I feel like could take this team to a level where we're going into the playoffs, thinking about them differently than we have over the last couple of years.

23:26Dave Helman: Yeah, I mean, and again, like I still grow. I struggle a little bit to be super optimistic because, again, these are second and third third round picks. You know, Tyke Smith himself, even though he was impressive, is a third round pick from last year who's moving positions. It's a lot of like this is not like top 10 picks that are going to come change the defense. At the same time, a lot of the guys outside of Zion McCollum and especially when Anton Winfield wasn't playing, were just like straight up bad last year. And obviously, you know, Tyke Smith was at the nickel, but now he's not. So that's a little bit complicated.

23:53Dave Helman: But if they can just be 10 percent better than they were last year and Hassan Reddick gives you anything that at least gets this defense closer to average instead of getting bludgeoned on every single passing down. And I think that that could go a decent way. And like Benjamin Morrison is a tough case because he had so many injuries in college and he's dealing with some again. And so who knows with that one? But like Jacob Parrish is a scrappy son of a gunman. I kind of liked him and Tykee Smith. I think he has enough to him that I think moving to safety is not going to be that crazy for him. So I am, again, I don't know about optimistic, but certainly intrigued.

24:25Robert Mays: There's a path. That's how I see it. There is a path for this secondary to feel very different this year than it did at the end of last year. When we had Mike Edwards and, I mean, there was just, they were piecing this thing together last season with concerns about the pass rush. And at least there are options this year.

24:41Derrik Klassen: It's worth noting, if Antoine Winfield's healthy, it just makes me feel better about everything. I mean, it it's he played half the season last year and I thought he was the best safety in football in 2023. I really did. I thought he was incredible. And if he's even close to that level, it just lessens my concern about all the stuff back there. Dave, what are you watching over the first month of the season for the Bucs? So full transparency, this was going to be the thing that was keeping me awake at night because I am a big law of averages guy. And so for me, I look at Todd Bowles, who is a defensive minded head coach, a conservative head coach, painfully so most of the time.

25:24Derrik Klassen: He's not somebody that you think of as like at the forefront of the offensive revolution. So I'm sitting there thinking, what are the odds that Todd Bowles did this again and nailed his OC hire after the last two became head coaches? Like, just what are the odds that it works out that well three times in a row? So I've been worried about that for the entire offseason, really, from the minute it was obvious that Liam Cohen was going to change his mind and go to Jacksonville. Then you start digging into Josh Grisard. And now I'm like, OK, I have a I have a firm degree of confidence that Todd Bowles actually did do this again.

26:01Derrik Klassen: And I'll get into it. Number one, it's worth pointing out, too. Like, again, I don't I don't think people give Todd the credit that you might give a Sean McVay for identifying coaching talent. Dave Canales and Liam Cohen came in from not in like he had no prior relationship with those guys. They came in from Seattle and L.A. respectively. Whether, you know, he got help from his network or whatever. He identified those guys himself. And then last year, when Liam Cohen's here, he tabs Josh Grisard from Miami, who is working under Mike McDaniel. And for me, when I hear Mike McDaniel, for all the critiques we might have about the Dolphins, that gets me excited from just a play calling and design standpoint.

26:44Derrik Klassen: Guy played at Yale, got his master's at Duke, worked under David Cutcliffe while he was at Duke. He's been with Adam Gase and now Mike McDaniel in the Dolphins. He was in Miami for quite a while. And by the way, he crossed paths with Ben Johnson while he was there and they have a relationship as well. Like the guys got connections to all the people that you would want your OC to have connections to. And he was here with Liam Cohen last year. Like, it's not like he's coming in blind like Canalis and Cohen did. He spent the year in Tampa working with Cohen. Cohen tried to bring him to Jacksonville and the Jags blocked it.

27:23Derrik Klassen: So I hear all of that stuff and it's incredibly intriguing. We know the Bucks have good offensive talent. I did a total 180 from thinking like, ah, what are the odds that this will be a good hire again to like, I think this was a pretty good hire.

27:38Robert Mays: My concern, I think that they'll be fine, right? Like I have faith in this working. I think retaining Kevin Carberry, their offensive line coach and the run game coordinator based on how the run game was structured last year is something that you can get excited about. For me, it's just how far do they fall down? is this going from the fourth best offense in the league to the eighth best offense in the league, or is this going from the fourth best offense in the league to the 14th best offense in the league? And I just don't know where that's going to land. And that's why I don't know how to feel about what this team is going to be this year.

28:07Derrik Klassen: Is it a guarantee that they fall that far?

28:10Robert Mays: Like, I mean, I think they, I do not, I think it's going to be very hard for them to be as good as they were last season. Just for all the reasons I said for like in those high leverage moments in these things that tend to be volatile. So what is it? Is it again, are they still like a firmly top 10 unit or does this fall? They were 20th in a lot of the metrics that you want to look at from 2023 before Liam Cohen got there. The offensive line talent is undeniably better. You drop Graham Barton in, Cody Mock takes a step forward in year two. Gadecki has really leveled up. Bredesen was a nice little fine.

28:41Robert Mays: We know what Tristan Wirfs is. That group is better than it was in 2023. But a lot of the other component parts were similar to what they were under Canales when they were a slightly below average offense. So between those two polls, what they were with Liam Cohen and what they were with Canales, where do they fall with Grisard? Because if the defense isn't going to be objectively very good, the offense is going to have to carry this thing. And I wonder how much firepower they're going to have to do that.

29:05Derrik Klassen: I think they can do it. And yeah, I mean, repeat, like repeating as a top five offense is maybe I'm not willing to be that bold but like especially if we're getting a healthy amount of games from tristan wirfs like i feel pretty good about it just like little things like grizzard is figuring out whether

29:23Robert Mays: he still wants to call plays from the sideline or the booth like that's something they're still working through that doesn't mean anything he might be great that they're thinking about that

29:30Dave Helman: makes me itchy it's a product and it's just something to keep in mind when you've never

29:35Robert Mays: done this before even if the ideas are good there is going to be uncertainty with how it's ultimately going to manifest with this offense. And until we know how good the defense is going to be, I think that has to be at front of mind. And especially when you consider the goals that this team has this year. So let's talk about that. Dave, in your mind, what does success look like for the 2025 bucks?

29:58Derrik Klassen: I mean, I think there's no reason to think if this team is as good as I think they are or as good as they think they are, like they should win the division again, get back to the playoffs and just look like you belong, whether that means winning a wild card game or, or just playing a really competitive wild card game. I'd like to see them get back to divisional weekend and, and much like two years ago, like if they get to divisional weekend and they look like they belong in that final eight, that's pretty good. I, you know, I'd, I'd love to see them take that next step. Like I said, I'm, I'm so tempted to say that I think they're a conference championship game kind of team, but there's just enough uncertainty with the personnel, with the injuries, and then the new coach on the offensive side.

30:46Derrik Klassen: There's enough there where I can't go that far, but divisional weekend would be nice.

30:50Dave Helman: I think I've landed on just stave off the Falcons, like whatever that means and whatever that requires that to me, I think is success.

30:58Robert Mays: That's not enough for me. They've done that the last couple of years. I want to see some sort of progress, even if we have all of those concerns and all those questions that Dave talked about. I don't mind asking them to like go to the NFC championship game. All I want that feels different than the last couple of years. Can you win a playoff game against a team that is not actively imploding? Because their playoff win over the last few years was over that 2023 to Eagles team that's actively imploding. So show us that you can win a playoff game against a team that is not collapsing in real time.

31:29Robert Mays: And that with one more year from the young defensive players that you drafted from all the talent that we have on this team, when we go into 2026, Dave, are they one of those teams that when we do a seat at the table, we don't even talk about them. It was just like, well, of course, I mean, the bucks are absolutely a super bowl contender, that combination of stuff. That's what feels like success to me this year.

31:51Derrik Klassen: And they haven't graduated to that category, to your point, like every year people aren't sold on the bucks and they've been defying those expectations to this point, but you got to keep doing it. And on top of that, if they do, if, if they do last season all over again, if, if we argue about how good they are for 18 weeks and then they go one and done in the playoffs, like that's going to be a tough pill to swallow. So that's, yeah, it's, it's gotta be something more than losing control of a game in the fourth quarter of wildcard weekend. Like they did last year.

32:22Robert Mays: We're going to take a quick break here. And then we're going to get back with our 2025 Atlanta Falcons preview. You know, that hoodie you can't stop reaching for

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36:50Robert Mays: as we dig into our falcons preview here just a quick heads up if you're watching this on youtube we'd love if you liked and subscribe to the channel please let us know your thoughts below what you think the falcons are going to be this year where we think where you think this stuff is right where you think it's wrong we would sincerely appreciate that let's get to the Falcons offseason in 60 seconds. Hire Jeff Ulbrich as their defensive coordinator. Extended Jake Matthews two years, 45 million, 38 million dollars guaranteed. Signed Leonard Floyd one year, 10 million. Retained Mike Hughes, the cornerback three years, 16 million, nine and a half guaranteed.

37:20Robert Mays: Lost Drew Dahlman and Grady Jarrett to the Bears in free agency. Notable draft picks Jalen Walker in the first round. Edge rusher James Pierce in the first round as well. Traded up including a 2026 first round pick to get James Pierce. Xavier Watts, the safety in the third round. Billy Bowman, who is in the nickel mix for this team in the fourth round out of Oklahoma. Derek, what are you excited to watch with the 2025 Atlanta Falcons?

37:47Dave Helman: Regardless of whatever, we don't know the quality of play we're going to get from the quarterback yet, but I do know he's going to throw the piss out of the ball and he's going to throw it far down the field. And they have one of my favorite receivers for that. And we already have proof of concept that Michael Penix loves Drake London. like I actually this is something that I think a lot of people have already pointed out but like when you look at the numbers for what Drake London was doing when in the three games that Michael Penix played Drake London led the NFL in targets in yards and first downs in the final three weeks of the season he had a 39.4 percent target share which was the highest in the NFL over that span but also if you had like run that out for the entire season would have also been first just over Puka Nakua, who was at like 38 and a half percent.

38:33Dave Helman: So this was already a team that fed Drake London a lot, as they should have. And Kirk Cousins was doing that. But now they have a quarterback who, you know, and I think we said this when they drafted Michael Penix, who is the receiver on the Falcons who most resembles what Roma Dunze was in college? It's Drake London. And we knew that Michael Penix would throw the hell out of the ball to the Roma Dunze because he's just going to go find the ball. And London obviously gives them to that. So I'm just very excited to see what the the basketball offense kind of looks like for those two.

38:59Robert Mays: I will say one bit of context. Darnell Mooney was hurt for one of those games where Drake London got like 19 targets. So that's just one thing to keep in mind as you consider what might be driving some of that. But absolutely, this thing is going to be built through Drake London. Like we know that he's going to get a shitload of work within this offense. And I'm right with you here. Like I we talked about this on our halfback take show earlier this year. Like I'm pumped about what this offense could potentially look like with Michael Penix. If you look at just some of the underlying numbers from Michael Penix last year, he had a 9 % big time throw rate in his three starts, according to PFF.

39:36Robert Mays: That would have led the league. Josh Allen was at 7 % for all of last season in his MVP season. You combine that, and we know it. I mean, I could throw out like 10 incredible throws he had in those three games. He has unbelievable, staggering arm talent. You combine that with just not having negative plays. There are accuracy issues. But the true like huge downside negative plays, he had a 1.7 % turnover worthy play rate over that same stretch. That would have been tied for the league lead. So you would have been tied for the league lead in big time throw rate and turnover worthy throw rate. And he had a 12.1 % pressure to sack rate in those three starts.

40:16Robert Mays: That would have been behind only Lamar Jackson last year. So when you combine like the high end stuff with the with a lack of low end stuff, that's how I can start getting excited about what he can be within an offense that I think has the requisite amount of talent and I think is designed in a way that can get me pretty pumped.

40:37Dave Helman: So I understand I'm the Michael Penix skeptic here, but like how much of the numbers like that should we be doing with like 100 pass attempts against three of the worst pass defenses in the entire NFL? I think that's fair.

40:51Robert Mays: It just feels like very fraught to me. I completely understand that. I think from a process perspective, though, the sack taking, I think, is just a part of who he is as a quarterback. So I think that to me is something I will believe in. And I think the aggressiveness and the arm talent, it's undeniable. Like, I think he will play this way with this style and those throws are available to him. I'll say this, and I don't want to read too much into the conversations I have at these places and the tones of those conversations. When you go to some of these teams and you're talking about the players and even the quarterback, there are teams that are realistic, right?

41:28Robert Mays: Like they want the guy to be good, but there's, yeah, you know, we're not exactly sure how this guy is going to be. when you talk to people in the Falcons building and people on that offensive staff, they are true believers. Like in their minds, this is a special guy who is going to be a special player. Just some of the elements of what he's doing at training camp and how he's moving people with his eyes and just the awareness that he plays with, him getting to certain checkdowns, like the process within the offense, you combine that with the talent and they're just like fully bought in to him being one of those quarterbacks.

42:03Robert Mays: Like Matthew Stafford's name comes out of their mouth over and over and over again when they talk about this guy. And I don't know if we're ultimately going to get there, but I can tell you that's the level of excitement that exists within that building.

42:14Derrik Klassen: We obviously can't say that he's going to get there, but I disagree for the record just because I've seen even first round picks. I've seen way too many guys get thrown in and just not look ready for it. And Michael Penix looked so ready. And like, what was the story? He found out while he was at Costco on like a Tuesday night that it wasn't going to be Kirk anymore. And by Sunday, he just he he didn't look overwhelmed. That's for damn sure. It was very, very impressive. And it it registered for me on a level beyond like, oh, well, you know, it's a good, favorable situation. No, I thought it was it was much more than that.

42:54Derrik Klassen: Michael Penix was the, he was an end credit scene to a Marvel movie where like the season's winding down. Like it's the movie's over.

43:04Dave Helman: That's a generous way to explain the Falcons.

43:05Derrik Klassen: And then it's like a new Avenger is coming in 2026. Like, hang on for the new guy. That's how I felt about Michael Penix.

43:13Robert Mays: I completely understand the accuracy worries. There were sprays last year that were tough to support, right? It's tough to like talk those away. but I think some of the things they've worked on with him when it comes to his base and staying on top of the ball as a thrower like these are all things that they're aware of even some of the touch issues that we've talked about Derek like they're working on the right stuff and I think that extends for me to some of the gaps in the offense and when you look at what they were offensively last year they were incredibly explosive when Penix got in there but this is still a team that wasn't pulling levers to push the ball down the field they had a bottom of the league play action rate with Kirk and they continue to do that with Penix.

43:50Robert Mays: But I think that's partially a product of changing quarterbacks midstream. I feel like one of the areas, a couple areas that I think they've really drilled down on this off season are what sort of play action concepts down the field can we activate now with this guy as our quarterback so we can continually pump the ball downfield. And the other thing that I was, it was good to hear was how can we be more explosive on the ground, right? They were incredibly efficient as a run team last year. I think they had the best rushing efficiency rate in the NFL per success rate, according to NextGen. They were not an explosive running team.

44:22Robert Mays: I want to say Bijan had like four or five runs of 30 plus yards. And one of the things, one of the areas where you can seek out these explosives on the ground is by changing up and having complimentary runs within your offense. This is a zone based team in a way that not that many teams in the NFL are anymore. But I think this is the year where you're going to see them. What are the change ups? What are the things that we can do to hunt out those explosives with a guy who has the talent to do it? We just haven't seen it happen before. So all the ways that they've thought about adding wrinkles and layers to who they're going to be this year based on the talent, which is pretty damn good to start with.

44:59Robert Mays: I'm just encouraged by the vision for how they want this to go. Let's get to these swing points for the 2025 Falcons. Dave, why don't you kick us off here?

45:09Derrik Klassen: I deeply appreciate how easy the Falcons have made this on us. Like you can dig into minutiae if you want to, but I think that's being intellectually dishonest because there's two things. We already talked about Penix and then on the defensive side, Terry Fontenot was just like, we're gearing up at edge rusher and we're doing it as recklessly as possible. In my opinion, for the record, I I've said many times, I, I hated what they did in the draft. It just felt unnecessary to move that amount of capital around to get two edge rushers. But if it works, then you can really supercharge this thing if you're right.

45:49Derrik Klassen: If you're right about Jalen Walker, if you're right about James Pierce Jr. Leonard Floyd on the defensive side of the ball was the main addition. And Leonard Floyd can definitely be an exciting piece of your pass rush, especially if one, preferably both of these rookies hit. And, you know, I'm sure the Falcons are imagining a Rams like effect where verse and Fisk just turned that thing into a level beyond what anybody saw coming. Are they going to be right to the degree that they're fine not having a first round pick next year? I would like to see it to believe it. But if it happens, then I think it changes the complexion of of this whole team.

46:30Dave Helman: really my biggest struggle with all of this is that so I was a little bit iffy on what Jalen Walker could be coming into the NFL I just didn't know if he was supposed to be an edge player do you make him like Frankie Louvoo where he's a little bit of both like do you make him off ball whatever the fact that they have purely sold him as an edge player is to me a little bit like it just feels like there would have been you drafted a player like that to do a lot with him and if they really think that he can just purely be a special edge player that's fine he definitely has the length, the violence, the speed to do it.

47:00Dave Helman: It's just, it feels like, especially in year one, we're asking a lot of a player like that.

47:05Robert Mays: I think it's the opposite. I think they're seeing it the opposite way where in year one, they just want to keep the scope as limited as they can. So he's working on the stuff that he needs the most work on. Like when they're talking about him as an edge rusher and what he needs to develop, we see that all the time though. I mean, there, I think there are a lot of defensive coaches when they're talking about young players, let's keep it as simple and as narrow as we can early in their career. And then maybe we start expanding it. This team feels good about their off-ball linebacker group. Like they're excited about Caden Ellis.

47:34Robert Mays: They think that Divine Diablo fits what they want to be. They need edge help. You look at the numbers last year, they had a 32.4 % pressure rate when bringing five.

47:46Dave Helman: Caden Ellis is amazing.

47:48Robert Mays: That was less than seven teams bringing four. It was 31st in the NFL. out. They had a, they on a fewer than a third of the dropbacks where they blitzed last year, they got pressure. This team needs pass rushers. And so just allowing him to be a terror off the edge in year one and allowing him to just focus on that. I can understand it. If you want to start expanding that and using him as more of a Swiss army knife, as he gets a little bit deeper in his career, fine. But right now just saying, I want you to go get the quarterback on third and seven. That's what this team needs more than anything else.

48:23Derrik Klassen: And you know what? To be generous to them, having said that I don't love what they did, if it works, like I found myself kind of nodding my head at what the Falcons have. If we just assume that, that the rookies hit, or at least if Jalen Walker hits, like I went back and watched Arnold Ebicchetti last night. I just went and watched highlights of, of his play. And I was like, you know, if this guy was your third best pass rusher, I'd feel a hell of a lot better about that. Like he's, he's got good bend and he's just got a high motor. Like a lot of his sacks are just pure effort plays. And if that's your third guy, I like that.

49:03Derrik Klassen: And if they're really right, if both of these rookies are something, then he's your fourth guy. Like if you can really count on Pierce and Walker and Ebiketti and, uh, Leonard Floyd are three and four or whatever order you want to put it. It doesn't really matter. Like if all of those guys are humming, that's pretty fun. I'm dubious about it actually being that clean. I understand the vision, I guess. I understand where it could go. I just I need to see proof of concept before I get too excited about it.

49:35Dave Helman: I'll be clear. I'm probably being blinded by selfishness that I just kind of want to see Jalen Walker do all the other stuff. but you make a good point, Robert, that like for the interest of the team in year one, when these guys are kind of trying to save their jobs, it probably doesn't make a whole lot of sense to ask him to do 800 things.

49:51Robert Mays: Two things I want to be clear about. One, I do not support the James Pierce decision in any way, shape or form. Trading a future first round pick for James Pierce is not okay. And I think it's another misstep in process and with a regime that we've seen make plenty of them over the last few years, the jail and Walker part. I think one reason just to kind of tamp down on any excitement about this, he's been banged up for a huge portion of training camp. And as somebody that was kind of changing positions coming into the league, they were really encouraged and optimistic about what his development timeline was going to look like just based on how he's wired.

50:24Robert Mays: Like the thought was something that refinement that we're talking about as a pass rusher that might take some guys a long time because they have a white way to go. It wasn't going to take him as long because of what he's like as a person, just like son of a coach, all that stuff. They were very encouraged by that. He's missed over half of their padded practices. So now the guy that you drafted in the top half of the first round that you thought was going to be the dude to supercharge your pass rush has missed a huge chunk of training camp. And James Pierce, while a productive pass rusher in college, I think there was a reason that there were some doubts about what he was going to be in the NFL.

50:58Robert Mays: So this is another one of those scenarios, Dave, where investments don't necessarily equal results. And if they don't, then we might be in a tough spot with this Falcons defense.

51:08Derrik Klassen: that's that's what i'm saying is it's easy to sit there and be like well the rams just did this and i'm here to say that's a rare rare thing like we shouldn't we shouldn't think of two more

51:18Robert Mays: different players than jared verse and james pierce james pierce yeah exactly well i'm not

51:22Derrik Klassen: even i'm not even talking about player types but yeah you're absolutely right i mean that's completely fair but just the idea that you're like yeah we're gonna spend back-to-back picks on this and they're both highly ranked and they're gonna change the whole thing overnight i just i I don't think it's realistic. And you're 100 % right. I mean, Jared Verse is a much more complete player than either one of these guys, in my opinion, at least. And so it's, it's, it's theoretically possible. I can just like, I'm couching my words because I can imagine this rant being on a Falcons hype video in December when these guys are in the rookie of the year chase.

51:58Derrik Klassen: I mean, it's, it's theoretically possible, but it's tough for me to believe that it works out that beautifully. And Derek made a point worth mentioning is I think Terry Fontenot needs to show something here. If we're going to keep going with this regime, right? Like this is year five. And if they don't have a playoff appearance to put behind it, now you're talking about bringing in a new regime that doesn't have a first round pick. If this doesn't go the way you want it to, it's, and that to be clear, that won't be Terry Fontenot's problem. And that's probably why he did it or at least part of it, but it makes me nervous.

52:30Derrik Klassen: It makes me nervous. I'd rather have Jalen Walker and a second round pick and know that I can keep that powder dry for next year. But if, if it works, then, then more power to them and they can gloat all they want.

52:44Robert Mays: Let's talk about what's worrying us here. And you'd say you're worried about that. Here's what I'm worried about. I'm worried about the fragility of the offense. That's what's keeping me up at night. We have questions about the defense, but I do think the offense is more fragile than we want to believe it is after the flashes we saw from them at the end of last season. Darnell Mooney, who I think stylistically is a fantastic fit with Michael Penix. Like what Darnell Mooney does on some of those outbreaking vertical routes, he is exactly what you want as like a secondary complimentary piece with Michael Penix.

53:12Robert Mays: He's hurt and they don't, he's hopefully going to be back early in the season, but he's missed the majority of training camp. And now Caleb McGarry gets carted off earlier this week. We don't know how much time he's going to miss. They're starting right tackle. Their swing tackle, Storm Norton is also hurt and I think is out for the entire season. And why this matters is that, going back to the Terry Fontenot point, Dave, this team added no offensive players this offseason. None. And this is, to me, the mark of a short-sighted front office. This is where you see teams make mistakes, where they think, okay, all we need to do is fix the problem that was bad for us last year.

53:50Robert Mays: And as long as we do that, everything else is going to be great. And that's just not how any of this works. And so the fact that they built in no redundancies for the offense because they were converting so many resources to the defense puts you in a spot. Whereas a team that played 86 percent, 11 personnel last year and only has three receivers. If one of those receivers gets hurt and now your offensive line that was shockingly healthy last year, except for the center that is no longer here and his backup is now playing. If you miss half the season from one of those guys, you start to chip away at the best version of this offense very, very quickly.

54:28Dave Helman: And to the point of like short sighted team building, think about the team we just talked about, Jason Light and what he did with the Bucs.

54:34Robert Mays: They were perfect comparison.

54:35Dave Helman: They were like the fifth best offense in the league and said, you know what? We want to get a year ahead of the receiver thing and we're going to go draft the Mecca Bucca. And the Falcons continually do the exact opposite of that. That is why there's a number of reasons I feel a little bit icky about this team, but that is certainly one of them. And then again, the Caleb McGarry Storm Norton thing, when you lose both of your potential right tackles for any team, that's a huge deal. And I know that Michael Penix is better about getting the ball out than most other quarterbacks. But this is his blind side for a guy who is like it's just it's a very it's his blind side for a guy who is going to first time be like a full time starting quarterback.

55:09Dave Helman: That's just again, even if we think he's good at getting the ball out, you're just going to get hit more than you would probably like. And that's a little bit scary to me.

55:16Robert Mays: And he's a pocket-based quarterback. Like that's who he is. He's not going to mitigate. He's not going to deal with like unblocked pressure in a way that some of these other young quarterbacks are stylistically. He needs to be kept clean to be the guy that we want him to be. And now you're going into the season with a massive question mark at one of your tackle

55:33Derrik Klassen: spots on top of what it obviously means for Michael Penix Jr. Do you guys, are y 'all aware? Bajon Robinson took like his set, his carry count, his carry splits, 73.8 % of his attempts went outside the tackles. That's like among guys that had a lot of carries that is in a different stratosphere. Like the outside zone offense, Alvin Kamara and Devon HN are the only guys that even come close to how often he was doing it. And per NFL Jesus, they were so much better doing it off of right tackle than left, like by a lot. Like they were averaging four and a half, five yards per carry going off the right side.

56:14Derrik Klassen: So if your right tackle and your swing tackle are down, that's very scary for both components of your offense. Yeah. That, I mean, I was, I very fittingly, I was doing my notes for the Falcons when the Caleb McGarry injury happened. And I was like, well, I know the answer to what's keeping me up at night. It's that that's very easy.

56:34Robert Mays: The last thing before we transition to some of the defensive talk here that I did not mention when discussing like the structure of the offense. My, one of my predictions for this team is they lead the league in pistol snaps, which I don't think is necessarily a bad thing because I do think it's a way to combine your quarterback being comfortable in the shotgun. And I think that there are certain things they can activate from a play action pass perspective there. And there are actually elements of their run game that they think work better from the pistol than they do from under center of the gun.

57:01Robert Mays: So this team leading the league in that and having it be kind of the foundation of their offense in a way that it isn't with a lot of other teams. Just something to keep an eye on as we get into the season. What else we're watching over the first month of the season, Derek? What are you watching for the first four weeks with the Atlanta Falcons?

57:18Dave Helman: In terms of, you know, draft picks, the two first round pass rushers are the big one, but they also spent two picks in the secondary. And this is a secondary that was very bad last year and didn't really add or retain that many like veteran players. Obviously, they brought back Mike Hughes, but I don't think he should be prohibitive to anything you know insane going on there so they drafted a safety Xavier Watts in the third round who I actually liked a little bit coming out of the draft and you know maybe he can be a player for them and then Billy Bowman out of Oklahoma to potentially play the nickel for them they they need one of them to be good this is not a we hope this works out for us and this can change things for us a little bit no like they need one of these players to be at least a like c-plus level starter and if they don't I think this defense is just going to get fried again it's going to be AJ Terrell and Jesse Bates just holding on for their lives.

58:06Yeah.

58:07Robert Mays: That other outside cornerback spot, like Mike Hughes got that contract of we can live with this, but we probably want to upgrade. It's the exact type of contract Mike Hughes got. It's the same one Mike Jackson got, which we're going to talk about in a second with Carolina. I think Billy Bowman is not necessarily a guarantee to crack the starting lineup solely because D Alford is a solid player. Like I think that's the reason that Billy Bowman might not start. If Xavier Watts doesn't start and doesn't have an impact, that's a concern. And I think it's probably trending in that direction. I would be surprised if we look at this at the end of the season and Jesse Bates and Xavier Watts aren't the two Falcon safeties that got the most snaps.

58:41Robert Mays: My, what I'm watching over the first month of the season, let's stick with the defense. What does this defense look like with Jeff Ulbrich as the defensive coordinator? I mean, this group, it was one of the biggest questions I had when he got hired. The last couple of regimes they've had with Dean Pease and Ryan Nilsson and then into Jimmy Lake. I mean, this was a odd front three, four type team that is playing a very different sort of style of defense than what Jeff Ulbrich did when he was with the Jets. And so where do they fall between those two systems with the personnel that they have? And I do think that Jeff Ulbrich said something really interesting when he got hired.

59:16Robert Mays: And it was just that he kind of had like an awakening about like how you should be playing defensive football. And I think he's been a lot more open-minded than some of the stylistic choices the Jets would make would lead you to believe. Like the Jets were a four down attack front. That's what they had been all the time when Jeff Ulbrich was the defensive coordinator. I would not be surprised if you saw a little bit of a blend of some of that four down stuff with some of the more odd front stuff that this team has done in the past, partially because of the personnel, but partially because front diversification is a way to kind of keep offenses a little bit off balance compared to what they were doing with the Jets, where you're just getting teed off on over and over and over again.

59:57Robert Mays: And you can do that when you have really, really good players who are fluent in that system. there is none of that here i do think that some of the younger players they have can take to this attacking style because they're not used to playing any other way but i would not be surprised if there was a little bit more of a difference between how those guys played and then on the back end this is just very different stylistically from what the falcons were doing a year ago like the number that jumped out to me atlanta's corners last year played off coverage 71 of the time which was the highest rate in the league.

1:00:30Robert Mays: They had the third most average cushion of any quarterback group in the NFL per next gen. The Jets were bottom 10. This team is going to play a lot more man. They're going to be a lot more aggressive. And I'm just curious how all of that shakes out when you combine the differences up front and the differences on the back end and whether or not this is a good thing for the Falcons moving forward.

1:00:50Dave Helman: The front is the hardest part of it for me to figure out. Like AJ Terrell taking to more man coverage, like he's a pretty good player. That'll happen. Yeah, that's going to be fine. He's he's really good. And like Jesse Bates doing whatever he's going to do, if he gets to be maybe in a man coverage world, a little bit more of a freelancer at times. I think that could obviously work out for them. It's the front to me. And it's not just the that they have all these different body types and stuff like that and maybe different marriages. But like all of the guys that they drafted last year, we have no idea if they're any good.

1:01:19Dave Helman: Like Rook Aurora, we have no idea if he's anything. Brandon Dorlis, we have no idea if he's anything. Braylon Trice, I believe, missed all of last year. I liked him as a prospect, but if he's a guy who's coming off injury, was kind of drafted for the last system is really more of like a bigger run defender. What is his role in this all of this going to be? So it's just a lot of like they are more than most other units. Like I truly don't know what to think until we get to October.

1:01:41Robert Mays: And we talk about the edge rushers. Which of those interior guys hit? They need one or two of those guys to turn into players like they need doorless or Ruka Roro. Some of those guys to be impactful for this to all come together. It can't just be one or two of the young edge players, because if they combine that with like zero push up front, David on Yamada is getting deeper into his 30s. Like they've spent so many resources on the interior defensive line specifically. They need one or two of those guys to be significant contributors for this to all work. Let's get into what a successful season looks like for the 2025 Falcons.

1:02:20Robert Mays: Dave, what do you got for me?

1:02:21Derrik Klassen: This is where I'll be the NFC South apologist because I think we need to see playoff success. Not even we need to see them in the playoffs. We need to see Terry Fontenot's vision come to fruition in some way. I don't necessarily think they need to win the division. And that's just because if Michael Penix is good, then this could be a wildcard team. We were talking about this in the pre-production meeting. I think people get so locked into their ideas of what a division is where it's like, okay, this is, this is going to be the four seed and they're going to hold, like they're going to have a wildcard game and they'll probably lose it, which is ironic because the bucks weren't even the four seed last year, but that's how people view this division.

1:03:05Derrik Klassen: And I think if Michael Pinnock's is good, there's no reason that the Bucks and Falcons can't both make the playoffs like they could both be, you know, one 11 win, one 10 win team and sneak in there. And so I just I need the Falcons in the playoffs. It would be more fun for them if they finally took the division from Tampa. But as long as they get there, I don't care. If it's another year without the postseason, then I think that's very dicey for Terry Fontenot.

1:03:31Dave Helman: I think more than most other teams, they have to make the playoffs. Like, I think for a lot of other teams that can be like in this like general range, it would be like, OK, it would be nice. You know, we got young quarterback. As long as he looks good, we'll be fine. I just there's too many other good parts, good skill players on this team for that to be the case. Like you kind of have to get 10 wins and in.

1:03:48Robert Mays: It's such a strange marriage of timelines because you have a second year quarterback and you need to make the playoffs. And that's just the nature of what this has looked like and how they built over the last couple of years. So the team that signed Kirk Cousins in free agency last year, their timeline. is much stranger than any of the other teams that have second year quarterbacks.

1:04:04Derrik Klassen: Real quick. That's a funny point that I was thinking about when you were talking about Jeff Ulbrich, because you're like, well, some of these guys from previous years don't fit the scheme. That's a weird thing to say when the GM is the same, like Terry Fontenot brought these guys in and now they might not fit what the new DC wants to do. That's what happens when the GM survives a coaching change.

1:04:23Robert Mays: I don't necessarily think there are that many guys who aren't fit for this system. Like Arnold have a catty body type wise is probably the only one. Like if you look at the other guys, they're just big, strong, athletic defensive linemen. There are no players in talking to the defensive staff there where they're like, eh, he's kind of a weird square peg round hole guy for what we're trying to do. There is none of that. And so I do think they think there can be a smooth transition in part because I don't think there will be a wholesale transition from what they were doing last year to what the Jets were doing.

1:04:55Robert Mays: I don't think that's what you're going to see.

1:04:56Derrik Klassen: Well, that's probably good process on their part then, which, yeah, but it's, I just think it's, you're in an interesting situation where the GM survives coaching turnover as well as major quarterback decisions, which are both things that Terry Fontenot has done in the last year or two.

1:05:14Robert Mays: I'm with you guys. I think they have to make the playoffs for this to be a success. And I also think Michael Penix carrying over the good elements of what we saw last year, even if, you know, turn down a tiny bit. I don't think he has to lead the league in like the amount of explosive passes this team has. But if Michael Penix and the decision making, the arm talent, all the things that flashed last year carry over and some of those things that were a little bit more volatile, Derek, we've talked about them, like the lack of touch, some of the sprays that can get cleaned up. I do think that that version of him plus a playoff win, that is success for this team that took that quarterback eighth overall last year.

1:05:50Dave Helman: Yeah, if he looks like the whole weird taking him at eighth overall when we already have a quarterback thing is no longer a thing that anyone thinks about, that's clearly success. It's a great way to frame it.

1:06:00Robert Mays: Let's get to our next one here, our preview for the 2025 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers offseason in 60 seconds. Extended J.C. Horn, four years,$100 million,$72 million guaranteed. Good for you. Extended Tommy Tremble, Andy Dalton, Austin Corbett. Brought in Treven Merrig in free agency. Three years, 51 million, 34 and a half guaranteed at safety. Signed to Sean Wharton, Bobby Brown, and Patrick Jones up front. All two pretty decent mid-tier free agent deals. Also retained Michael Jackson at corner and brought in Rico Dowdle as their number two running back after Jonathan Brooks had that horrendous injury last year, which I'm still bummed about.

1:06:35Robert Mays: Lost Xavier Woods and Ian Thomas in free agency. In the draft, Ted Rowe McMillan, eighth overall receiver. edge Nick Scorton in the second round 51st overall edge princely uman mielin in the third round 77th overall brought in Trevor etn in the fourth round at running back and then Lathan ransom the safety in the fourth round Dave what are you excited about with the 2025 Carolina Panthers I'm gonna

1:07:00Derrik Klassen: lay my cards on the table here and just say that I I feel like I have things at stake with the Carolina Panthers because that's a bad place to be. I agree. I agree, especially after the ride we've been on since 2023. But I, I believed wholeheartedly in Bryce Young. I really did. I had no problem with him being the number one overall pick. I understood the size concerns, but he was just a magical player to watch in college, man. Like his, his understanding of, of spacing and his vision. And it was almost like watching Chris Paul, the way that he just like, it's like he saw an extra dimension. I like that comparison.

1:07:40Derrik Klassen: I really like that comparison. Actually. He did. He was doing shit where you're just like, how did he even see that? And how does it seem like he saw it two seconds before anybody else did? And I just, I knew, and he did it at Alabama, which carries weight for me when you're doing it in games where there's tons of NFL players on the field. And so even knowing that he was a small guy, I just believed, I knew he was going to be the man. And it shook my faith in who I am as a football fan. When we watched the first year and the first few games of last year, I was like, holy shit, do I know anything about this sport?

1:08:17Derrik Klassen: And so it was very exciting for me to see him resuscitate and to see him play with confidence and be able to point at the highlights and be like, look, yeah, that's what I loved. That's what I liked about Bryce Young. And I'm just, I'm so excited to see if he can keep doing it. I feel a little bit vindicated just from last year, but I need it. I need it for a whole year. Like, I mean, I hope the guy can prove that he's a franchise quarterback. He doesn't need to be top five or top 10 or any of that crazy shit. I just need him to be somebody worth building a team around. I'm excited to see if he can do it.

1:08:52Derrik Klassen: And my self-esteem is tied to it a little bit, I think.

1:08:56Robert Mays: I don't have that much at stake, but I'm also very excited about watching Bryce Young. I said year two, Bryce Young. I'm saying this is year two, Bryce Young. Yeah, year two, year one was not real. This is year two, Bryce Young.

1:09:07Dave Helman: I basically did this with Trevor Lawrence, so you can have this with Bryce Young, where I was like, the first year, the Urban Meyer, that's not, no, we're not doing that.

1:09:14Robert Mays: There are undeniable limitations to what Bryce Young is eventually going to be able to become as an NFL quarterback. Like there are areas of the field he's just not going to be able to access because he has a limited arm compared to some of these other guys. And it's kind of funny the comparison I'm about to make, but there is a comparison here. And it's why I, I guess, have faith in both of these guys, but also I'm just kind of rooting for them. And it's Michael Panix and Bryce Young. And it's because the two things I love most about quarterback play are do you play, and I've said this before about Bryce Young when we were talking about the top 10 offenses show, Derek, do you play with anticipation and aggressiveness?

1:09:48Robert Mays: If you play with those two things, I'm in. I want to watch that. That is stylistically what I want in a quarterback. And even if Michael Penix has four times the arm that Bryce Young does, both of those guys play with anticipation and aggressiveness. And that was my favorite part about watching Bryce Young last year. And you combine that with some of the off schedule stuff outside of the pocket. We saw it in the preseason game. Like, I'm just intrigued by this. I don't know what the ceiling of it is, but I know after the back half of last season, I want more of it because it wasn't just to me like some feel good story.

1:10:24Robert Mays: It was football. I liked watching. And that's why I'm excited to tune into this again.

1:10:30Dave Helman: I really don't want to be the Grinch here. Like I'm really struggling not to be, but he just don't do it. Don't do it. I'm going to do it a little bit. Like I just, I, I also generally love and Robert, we've talked about this a little bit quarterbacks who can anticipate and can be really aggressive. And I think with Michael Penick specifically, I'm a little bit more open to what the ceiling might look like because, yeah, he can throw the ball through a brick wall like that. It accesses some stuff for that play style that I struggle a little bit to see with Bryce Young and the tight window stuff.

1:10:59Dave Helman: It cuts both ways for this. Like I actually looked this up. He in terms of tight window throws had seven drops from his receivers. Obviously, we all remember the Xavier Leggett one. And that was the most in the league. I think the next closest quarterback was like four and it was like Josh Allen. So he did struggle with that. if you anecdotally watch him though like defenders also dropped a number of interceptions there were a handful in the Falcons game in the Saints games like he just continually put the ball in harm's way and I think when you don't have a great arm you're probably always going to be living in that world and sometimes you can get away with it like we've talked about this a little bit before too like Brock Purdy kind of gets away with that a little bit to me the difference is I think Brock Purdy does a better job of getting a little bit more up and down on the ball than I think Bryce Young does at times.

1:11:42Dave Helman: And so that's part of it for me. Brock Purdy is also just bigger and a better athlete. And so I think I'm completely open to the world where Bryce Young is like quarterback 18 in the way that like Baker Mayfield can be and then can be elevated by other players. I just there's never been a top 12 quarterback that looks like this. And that's where I struggle with.

1:12:00Robert Mays: I think I just don't think he's that far away from what Brock Purdy is like stylistically in terms of the skill set he's bringing to the position. And Brock Purdy is definitively better than the 18th best quarterback.

1:12:10Dave Helman: I think Purdy is a pretty is clear, objectively a bigger player. I think he's a better and smoother athlete than Bryce Young is. I think, again, his arm talent and control, I think, is a little bit better than Bryce Young's is, especially to me throwing outside of the numbers. Those are some of Purdy's best throws, whereas I think Young can kind of struggle getting the touch on those that he wants. I just I don't know. I I could not disagree with this more.

1:12:34Derrik Klassen: Can we acknowledge the irony for these specific two quarterbacks of saying Mr. Irrelevance is a better athlete than the number one overall pick? He is, though.

1:12:46Robert Mays: Here's the last thing I'll say about this, just in terms of the getting away with it stuff. Bryce Young was 30th among 44 quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate last year. like I think if you're comparing what he didn't get away with because his receivers were letting him down to what he did get away with and some of the throws that he was trying to force one of those things far outweighs the other but that's what I was gonna say too how often does a quarterback

1:13:10Dave Helman: with this arm get away with being that aggressive that consistently year over year how often does

1:13:16Robert Mays: that happen if you know where the windows are and you play with the right amount of anticipation I do think that you can consistently get away with it so he's gotta be drew breeze i'm not i'm good

1:13:25Dave Helman: on that man i just i don't know i can't derrick how much of brock purdy's success is just having

1:13:31Derrik Klassen: freaking aliens that snatch the ball like i mean that i mean that's definitely part of a huge part

1:13:36Dave Helman: of it well yeah that's why brock purdy can produce like the fourth zero aliens last year yeah but like but again yeah brock purdy is a guy who gets to produce above what his level is but i I just I think even individually, Brock Purdy is like a tier above at least what Bryce Young is to me.

1:13:54Robert Mays: I think that that is some revisionist history based on what Brock Purdy has looked like over the course of his career. I do not think he would have said that.

1:14:01Dave Helman: I would not have said that in 2023, but I think he's a better player now. And why can't Bryce Young become a better player? He might be, but I was very resistant to Brock Purdy being that guy. And so maybe I'll be wrong again. But this is the type of player that I'm fine with holding the line and being wrong on.

1:14:16Derrik Klassen: I don't want to diminish what Brock Purdy has accomplished, but like I can't get there with the idea of like like Bryce Young just can't be on like can't be a Brock Purdy S quarterback. You know, like, of course, Bryce Young can't be Lamar Jackson. He can't be Josh Allen. We know these things to be true. But I think the skill set is similar enough, even if even if Brock. Yeah, Brock probably does have a better arm, but even still.

1:14:43Dave Helman: And he's bigger and a better athlete.

1:14:44Derrik Klassen: yeah give me give me the damn 2023 49ers and let's find out just how Bryce Young looks like

1:14:51Robert Mays: I think it would be pretty good let's talk about the one alien that Bryce Young does now have Derek you wanted to talk about Ted McMillan Ted Rowan McMillan when it comes to what you're

1:14:59Dave Helman: excited to watch with the Panthers this year yeah this is how I get back in the good graces of Panthers fans for everything I just said you're expelled forever I probably am but I'm gonna try um I mean I opened the Falcon segment basically saying everything I love about Drake London and Ted Arroa McMillan is an extremely similar player to me he's a 6 '4 basketball moving slasher type of player who is incredibly good at getting the ball in the air I think Drake London has a little bit more violence and like real strength to his game in a way that Ted Arroa McMillan I think is more just graceful and just finds the ball incredibly well in the air yeah just smooth like it's he's not AJ Green but in the way that he goes up and finds the ball and moves there's like a little bit of AJ Green to him which actually like I do think in the best case scenario what you get out of this marriage is like a light version of Andy Dalton to AJ Green.

1:15:47Dave Helman: And I think that like Tedderola McMillan can be that kind of player. I liked him a lot in college and I know it's just preseason, but like he's looked again, there are like a dozen or so rookies who very obviously look like they belong in the preseason. Tedderola McMillan to me is one of those guys.

1:16:02Robert Mays: It's very fun talking about him with the coaches there and early in camp, you know, he's playing against JC Horn all the time. And one of the issues with McMillan's game coming out of college is, and I've said this, he plays like a volleyball player in ways both good and bad, right? You see the range, you see the body control, but he's just not an overly physical player, even for a bigger receiver. And so JC Horn is just in his pocket for like the first week of training camp. And it was one of the best things for him because he was looking for flags and no one was bailing him out. And I think that really did help him acclimate to the physicality of the NFL pretty quickly because of what was on the other side and the smoothness to me, one coach, the word that they use in talking about him, which I think is really well said.

1:16:43Robert Mays: And I think really does get to the heart of it. He plays very grounded for a tall receiver and that leads to some of the smoothness. And there was a play in the preseason that, and it was, it's funny because I brought up an out and up from college. When we were having this discussion, he ran one against Arizona state where, because he's so grounded, you see the smoothness on that route. And then the out and up he ran in the preseason, like that's where he is best. Even if he is a tall kind of jump ball receiver. When you look at the profile, his movement on those routes, and even with the ball in his hands, he is just so smooth and grounded in the way that he plays.

1:17:15Robert Mays: And so I think if he can take to the physicality, he is going to really change the complexion of this offense, not only because of what he does for Bryce Young. And I think they've even had to teach Bryce Young, like some of these other guys, it needs to be a him or nobody ball with McMillan. You don't need to do that anymore. And so I think that type of receiver and then allowing everyone else to play their more natural positions within the offense because you have a true X. He makes everything else make more sense. And he gives Bryce Young, if this works, the type of target and the type of player he just could not tap into last season, despite what Derek says, as all of his receivers consistently let him down.

1:17:54Derrik Klassen: I just think he's such a beautiful stylistic fit with Bryce. Yeah, there was a long ball in the Browns game preseason week one where he just dropped it over his shoulder and you're just like ah yes that was their vision like when you can see a team's vision for a player manifest itself on the field and especially that quickly and I know he he wasn't ready he should have had a touchdown on that slant like it's not all perfect but like when you can just see it come together that quickly you're like yes this was the plan and and I feel good that it can work out

1:18:28Robert Mays: let's get to the swing points for the 2025 Panthers Dave why don't you kick us off here where could the season pivot for Carolina does any of the shit we just argued about matter if

1:18:39Derrik Klassen: they don't improve their run defense like or just defense period defense period but specifically wait Robert tell the good listeners the stat you gave us on the pre-pro call like that's what I'm

1:18:50Robert Mays: talking about right here this front for Carolina we're talking about historic stuff here they were the first defense in the next gen era since 2016 to allow a 50 % rushing success rate. They also had the second lowest pressure rate of the past five years per next gen. I mean, this was historically bad stuff from Carolina front last season. Do you remember who was the worst pass rush over that unit?

1:19:14Dave Helman: Do you have that pull? Because that is like, how are you worse than that unit? That Panthers team was stinky.

1:19:19Robert Mays: I believe it was the 2022 Chicago Bears.

1:19:23Dave Helman: Oh, you know what? Okay, I can buy that. That's bad. That's real bad. I believe it was the 2022 Chicago Bears.

1:19:32Derrik Klassen: When the run numbers are that dismal, like I said, I mean, nothing else really matters. You're not going to be competitive in enough games. Bryce Young is not going to be able to throw you into games where you just can't get off the field and you're just giving defenses whatever the hell they want. And so clearly they did a lot to fix that. like a lot of their expenditures were on the front. You mentioned the two draft picks, Tershawn Wharton, Bobby Brown, the third, Patrick Jones, Patrick Jones, who I loved as a role player in Minnesota last year. So you can't do it all in one off season, but I have - They tried.

1:20:09Derrik Klassen: They sure f***ing tried. They're doing as much as you can. And hey, thanks Patriots for Milton Williams not being part of this, I guess. But we'll see. It can't be worse, right? It definitely can't be worse, especially with this amount of, this is literally a case where that's fair. It truly can't be worse. Not only can it statistically not be worse, but like with this amount of expenditure, even if they're not all good, something's got to go right. Like one or two of these guys have to be useful players and make you viable, which it'll go a long way just because you won't be historically bad.

1:20:46Robert Mays: I just love the stylistic differences in some of the guys they added, like Scorton and Umel Mielin are just so different. And I don't think that was intentional, maybe a little bit, but I just don't think they thought Princey would be there in the third round. And so their ability to kind of maneuver around and make that happen. I think Skorton is just one of those guys who, I mean, he just, that guy just eats rocks. Like I just absolutely love him. Like that's just the way that he plays. And you combine that with, I, when teams are in this position and I actually really appreciate a lot of the ways that Carolina has built this off season, they spent a lot of money in free agency, but this is a team that even in a down year for free agents, they're spending on second contract players.

1:21:21Robert Mays: These are young players that hopefully are going to be able to be a part of your foundation on defense over the next two or three years as you mold yourself into a contender. Bobby Brown is like 24 years old. Treshawn Wharton's a second contract player. Trevin Merrick is a second contract player. So sometimes when teams are a little bit aggressive, it doesn't mesh well with the timeline. This reminds me a little bit of what the Broncos did a couple of years ago, where we didn't really know what they were. They spent a lot of money, but they spent a lot of money on second contract guys that can become a part of the foundation.

1:21:49Robert Mays: so we'll see how much it actually works and how much of a difference it makes they weren't playing with nfl players last year even if these guys aren't stars they are nfl players and i'm at least excited to see what sort of step that can mean for this unit overall my swing point for carolina talking about young players is just the second year pass catchers like what is xavier laguette in this offense what is jalen coker what is jatavian sanders i think that Leggett specifically benefits the most from McMillan being involved here because now you can use him as a move piece. He can just be a vertical presence within the offense.

1:22:27Robert Mays: You don't have to worry about him on the line of scrimmage on releases against number one corners like you did last year. It allows him to come along at the right pace. And Derek, I know you like Jatavian Sanders, and I think that they're excited about what he can be as like a pass catching tight end that kind of compliments what Tom B. Tremble, who I believe just came off the public today can be for them as more of that traditional second tight end that they have.

1:22:52Dave Helman: Yeah. Like I'm as excited as anyone about Tedaro McMillan in a vacuum, but he, again, moving Xavier Leggett, I know he's big and looks like an X receiver. That's never what he was supposed to be coming out of college. Like he is more like the Debo ish type of receiver at times. You can just run him straight down the field if you want to. Like he's a very unique, you kind of just want him running in a straight line one way or the other type of player. And I think him being on the line as much as he was didn't really help him unlock that um and then yeah the tight end room like I'm I feel like I have a better grasp of how the receiver room is going to shake out in terms of the rolls and in terms of who's going to get that many snaps the tight end room is fascinating to me because you have Tremble who has been their leading tight end for a couple of years now um but he's coming off of some injuries Jatavian Sanders like I did not like him coming out of college um I just didn't know if he had enough juice but he looked like he was a little bit more athletic than I gave him credit for as a rookie.

1:23:43Dave Helman: And then his ball skills are really, really nice. Like he caught some of those like Bryce Young's just going to throw it up near the sideline type of balls. I think that could be really value for them. And then they drafted Mitchell Evans, who is another like he's not a good athlete, but he is a he can run to his spot seven yards down the field, turn around and catch anything around him. And I think that, again, for a guy like Bryce Young, that could be super valuable. So I'm just interested to see how that tight end room shakes out because I think they have like three actually playable guys.

1:24:12Robert Mays: Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the 2025 Panthers?

1:24:17Derrik Klassen: This is twofold, which we'll get into because they just can't afford the losses in the secondary. I don't think, but I just, I just really want JC Horn to be healthy enough to have the career that I want him to have. I felt like when he signed his deal in March, it raised a lot of eyebrows and understandably so the guy's only played in 54 % of his games. He's missed 10 plus games in half of his NFL season. So to sign him to a$100 million contract, kudos to Dan Morgan for having the guts to do that, the trust that he's going to be healthier because it's a huge risk when that type of investment is not on the field, but he's such a fun player.

1:25:02Derrik Klassen: And I, I went back and I was just watching Panthers defense cutups last night, which God helped me for doing that, but he's a really fun player. He's long as hell. He's physical. Uh, that, I mean, that was, you know, coming out of college, it was like, is this guy going to grab too much and get flagged too much to play in the NFL? But he's, he straddles that line really well. Like he's able to be physical and just bully guys without getting flagged. He got run past a couple of times last year. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he's not working with a loaded supporting cast, but I think he really is that caliber of cornerback if he can stay healthy.

1:25:44Derrik Klassen: And the only reason people don't view him that way is we just don't have that many games of A, him being healthy, and obviously the Panthers just aren't playing on big stages very often. So I think he's capable of being an all pro corner. There's no reason we can't talk about him the way we talk about the Stingley's and the sauces of the world, other than he's just got to be on the field more often. Last year was, was a great step. And I'm just very, uh, I'm, I'm anxious that, that he can maintain that.

1:26:16Robert Mays: What becomes really important is that the secondary beyond him, that's the area where you can only do so much in one off season. Like this is a group that still has some holes. Mike Jackson, you hopefully can get by with, but they're going to need an upgrade at that other outside corner spot somewhere. They like Corey Thornton, who was an undrafted free agent for them. But I think that's more of a long term play than him going to be an impact player this year. And we'll see how the other secondary spots shake out, because with Merrick specifically, I think they want him to play a role that's similar to some of these really flexible, big nickel players where he's going to be in the slot playing close to the line of scrimmage in some of the looks that they have, where they can really weaponize him as the second best player in the secondary.

1:26:56Robert Mays: They paid him to do that. Well, if that happens, then you need two guys to play safety that are not Trevon Merrick. I think the hope is that Lathan Ransom eventually gets to that place early in the season. And then you can use him and Damani Richardson and Nick Scott. If you have to get by with Nick Scott, he knows the system. But even that, it's like, all right, we're really piecing this thing together. So the secondary to me is still, Derek, probably the area of this roster that has the furthest to go before this team is really actually going to make any sort of noise.

1:27:26Dave Helman: I don't know. I think there's a set of players that play directly in front of them that give me just as much of an. I know you're going to mention this. Those lines, this is the other spot corner

1:27:35Robert Mays: and off ball linebacker, the two spots that need addressing on this team. It's I think if I had to

1:27:41Dave Helman: rank the 32, like starting linebacker duos in the NFL, they would be hard pressed to find themselves above like 30. Like this is just a unit that I think is really tough. Like Christian Roseboom. I know that he's like had played in a similar system in L.A. And so that's why they brought him in. But that does not inspire me. And then Trevin Wallace, they drafted last year in the third round, but he was very much a coming into the league like straight line runaround guy. And we're going to hope that by year three or year four, he's a guy worth paying. I think he has a lot more to prove after his rookie year.

1:28:12Dave Helman: And so this is just a unit that I do think that the players in front of them being better and actually giving them a chance is certainly going to help in a way that they, you know, maybe they were just left out to try last year, but I'm pretty scared of what the middle of this defense looks like.

1:28:25Robert Mays: Dave, what are you watching in the first month of the season with the Carolina Panthers?

1:28:30Derrik Klassen: I am really intrigued by how the Panthers managed their running back room. And I, I, my eyebrow raised a little bit in the spring when obviously Chuba Hubbard had a really nice season for them. They signed him to a nice deal and then they go out and get Rico Dowell who is good player it felt kind of redundant to me to be honest and then if that wasn't weird enough they drafted Trevor Etienne in the fourth round and if you're a fourth round pick I expect something of you right away I mean Jalen Wright Bucky Irving Ray Davis were fourth round picks last year Rashaun Johnson was a fourth round pick Chuba Hubbard himself was a fourth round pick by the way like you draft a running back that early I don't expect him to just play special teams and sit on the bench.

1:29:18Derrik Klassen: So they got three guys who I view as pretty equal. And I'm, I'm curious to see how it shakes out. I think Chuba, I would guess is the lead guy and Rico. That's undeniable.

1:29:31Robert Mays: Do you like, you think so? Yeah, that's undeniable. I think they'll ride with Chuba. I think that Rico doubt will kind of be the secondary guy. And I think they'll slow play the Trevor ET. I think they're excited about Rico doubt. I think they, they like a lot of the things that he can do, but I think Chuba is the dude there. Why? Other than the money, why do you think that? They're just, they love Chuba Hubbard. Like he's just one of those guys that they ran to pay Chuba Hubbard based on not only what he produced last year, but I think the phrasing was, he's everything we want to be as an organization.

1:30:03Robert Mays: Like they want Chuba Hubbard to be their guy.

1:30:05Dave Helman: Look at the guards they paid and then look at the way that Chuba Hubbard runs. That's the, he fits exactly what they want to be stylistically.

1:30:12Robert Mays: I think that Rico Dado could be more a part of this offense than it might seem considering how productive Chuba Hubbard was last year. Okay.

1:30:18Derrik Klassen: And that's, I don't mean to diminish Chuba Hubbard. I just think Rico Dowdle had a really nice season himself. Do you realize, and I think situation Chuba Chuba was a 100 meter sprinter, I believe like in college or before college. Like I think people think of him as this explosive guy. And maybe people think of Rico as more of a physical plotter. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard had the exact same number of explosive runs last year, which I thought was really interesting when I saw it. And also Rico Dowdle, I think has the better skillset on third down. Here's a weird stat. Chuba Hubbard was ninth in the league in receptions among running backs with 43.

1:31:00Derrik Klassen: Somehow he didn't crack 200 receiving yards, which sounds really hard to do. How do you catch 43 passes and finish with like 170 receiving yards. That seems impossible to me, especially cause Chuba's got some juice. So I love Chuba Hubbard. That's not the point. The point is really that I think Rico Dowdell's a really good player too. And then when you spend a fourth round pick on a running back, I I'm just curious to see how it all shakes out. Even if Chuba's the lead guy, I think the way that they deploy all these guys could be, could be interesting.

1:31:34Robert Mays: But I'm watching the first month of the season. And just what sort of wrinkles do we see in year two of this offense? Because I think last year was really the bare bones of what they want it to be. And you think about even the diversity of the run game. This was mostly a mid zone sort of team, the same way it was with Dave Canales when he was with Tampa in 2023. They have an offensive line to be better than that. This group was like middle of the pack last year in rushing success rate, despite having a pretty simple approach on the ground. And if they can start diversifying that a little bit, I think they have the talent up front, especially as a run blocking unit to take a step there where if this thing, if we can have a couple more explosives because we have some more complimentary runs, I think they have the pieces to make that happen.

1:32:15Robert Mays: Damian Lewis can be a polar in some gap schemes. Robert Hunt is really good on the move. So how they weaponize that group as a run blocking unit this year, I want to see what that next step looks like. And then what's the evolution with the passing game? You know, when you look at the structure of this offense, it really started to change in the back half of the season when Bryce Young became established and they really understood what he liked. In the back half of last year, they were in spread looks 30 % of the time, which was a top five rate compared to about 24 % of the time in the first half of the season.

1:32:47Robert Mays: Because they think he does a lot of good work when you spread things out for him and he can see things before the snap and gain information that way. They were seventh in the NFL out of empty in the back half of the season in EPA per play. And they were fourth in the amount of empty snaps that they used. So how they married that spread out world with some of the condensed run world that they want to use, it's not easy to do. But I think some of the ways that you can do it is like with quick motions and changing the picture. That's not something you can necessarily tap into with a lot of young guys in year one of a system.

1:33:18Robert Mays: But as these guys get into year two of this system, Coker, Leggett, Jatavian Sanders, can you add some of those layers where you're marrying that condensed run world with the spread passing world that you want to be in? So I just think there are a lot of different layers to consider with this offense that I do think can come together as guys get a little bit more acclimated to what the system is. We just didn't really see that version of it last year.

1:33:42Dave Helman: and I think to that end they should watch as much Buffalo as they can because if I think about what the run game can be especially from maybe if they want to get a little bit more condensed a little bit more under center bring in some heavier bodies again I think Mitchell Evans can be a good blocker Sanders can can be a good blocker on the move while also somehow marrying that with like we want to be an empty a lot which is something the Bills still can go to a lot because Josh Allen is incredibly comfortable at that and so obviously some of the talent differences are are you know wide between these two teams, but like not every offense has to be like a series offense where we do this to set up this to set up this.

1:34:16Dave Helman: It can be like a, we are making you defend two very different styles of offense kind of operation. And I, that probably is like the best marriage for, for the Panthers.

1:34:25Robert Mays: The last thing here, they've given Bryce Young a lot of autonomy at the line of scrimmage. Like he's going to have a toolbox to change things, to, you know, change certain routes based on certain looks. And so that going from year one to year two of an offense, you can see a jump there. And so him just having a little bit more flexibility in getting those guys into the right plays and trying to account for the way defenses are playing against them with that group in year two, with better receiving talent. I don't know, man, I'm curious to see how it looks. I have some faith about how exciting and how fun this group could be.

1:34:57Robert Mays: Dave, what in your mind does success look like for the 2025 Panthers?

1:35:02Derrik Klassen: It starts and ends with Bryce young being cemented as, as your guy. He doesn't have to climb into some upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. Maybe he's, maybe he's like at the Dalton line, which is fitting because Andy Dalton is his backup quarterback still. If he, you know, just be there, be a guy that the organization can be confident that they're going to build around and they don't have to start over. That is a okay. And if he does that, I would love to see the Panthers pick outside the top 10 in the draft for the first time since 2019. They have been, That's crazy. That's a crazy stat. It's just crazy.

1:35:40Dave Helman: The world was different the last time the Panthers picked outside the top 10.

1:35:44Derrik Klassen: Be good enough to pick outside the top 10. And if you are, then it probably means Bryce Young was pretty good.

1:35:51Robert Mays: Be a team that I have fun watching every single week offensively. Don't be embarrassing defensively. And by the end of the season, are you on the in the hunt graphic in week 17? That to me is success for this team. That is real progress from where they've been. And again, I believe in some of the things they've done in the way that they're trying to build the roster. I think that Dan Morgan and that group, since he took over, there are some teams where, I'm not trying to pick on anybody, like last year's Titans come to mind, where I look at the offseason last year's Titans had, and I'm like, explain to me how this makes sense.

1:36:21Robert Mays: Explain to me how this is in pursuit of you eventually winning a championship as an NFL franchise. I can't say that about the Panthers. I can get on board with most of the process, and we'll see how much of that stuff actually falls into place. We're going to take one more quick break, and then we're going to come back with the New Orleans Saints.

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1:40:10Robert Mays: All right, our preview for the 2025 New Orleans Saints. Their offseason in 60 seconds. Hired Kellen Moore as their head coach. Doug Musmanire as their offensive coordinator. Brans Daly as their defensive coordinator. retained chase young three years 51 million 33 guarantee sign justin reed three years 31 million 22 guaranteed juan johnson three years 30 million brandon cooks two years 13 million acquired von godshaw and a trade from the patriots also brought in isaac yadam as one of their outside corners lost paul senadibo mbs and will harrison free agency drafted kelvin banks offensive tackle in the first round quarterback tyler shuck 40th overall in the second round defensive tackle vernon brought in in the third round safety jonah senka in the third round linebacker danny Stutzman in the fourth round, cornerback Quincy Riley in the fourth round.

1:40:53Robert Mays: It's a little bit disorienting. I'm not used to the Saints having that many picks, but they had a decent amount of them last year. Derek, what are you excited to watch with the 2025 New Orleans Saints?

1:41:05Dave Helman: I am. I said it at the top of the show. I am weirdly intrigued by this team, not to the end that they will be good, but to the end that I kind of want to watch them for whatever reason. And a lot of that to me comes down to the offensive line. Like, I think it's not just that I kind of like the players. Like, I think Fouaga kind of in the way that we've talked about J.C. Latham moving back to his natural position at the right side. I think that matters for a lot. I think he was thrown into the fire a little bit last year. I love Kelvin Banks, and I think he's looked good in the preseason, their first round pick this year.

1:41:33Dave Helman: And like Penning, I think you still need a little bit more to see. But like, I think even he's looked decent in the preseason next to Kelvin Banks at guard instead of what he was having to do out at tackle. And then you obviously have two more veteran players next to them in Eric McCoy and Cesar Ruiz. So there to me is a chance that this offensive line is like kind of good. And like to what end? Because the quarterback situation, which we'll get to, I don't know. But I do think that this can be a unit that potentially they are really excited to build around.

1:41:59Robert Mays: Yeah, I'm looking forward to watching that group. And I think this extends to other pieces on the offense for me, too. Like Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, Dave, are exciting players. Like you combine those two guys with a young, potentially ascending offensive line. and Alvin Kamara, who I think showed you last year, still got some juice left in the tank. The supporting cast from a talent perspective on this Saints offense, it's going to be watchable if things break right at the very least.

1:42:26Derrik Klassen: I think that's what's frustrating about the Saints is like it's easy to bag on them because they don't have a quarterback. And it's easy to sit here and crack jokes about trying to draft a quarterback. And is Archie's grandson going to come out in the draft and save the franchise and all that good stuff? And the bottom line is they got a pretty good team. They just don't have the most important position or at the very least, we don't know what those guys are. If you want to believe in the quarterbacks, that's fine. We don't know. But what we do know is like, I like the receivers. I'm excited about the offensive line.

1:43:00Derrik Klassen: I like Alvin Kamara. Like if they had more at quarterback, especially with how long the offseason is, you don't think I could talk myself into the Saints winning the division with better quarterback play. I absolutely could, but the quarterback's just not there as far as I know. And so it's hard. But I, yeah, I like everything that y 'all said. Like there's talent here. It's not, this is not Carolina last year. Like this is not a hopeless JV squad. And like this team wasn't that bad last year.

1:43:29Dave Helman: Like they were grotesque to watch by the end because of some of the injuries and stuff. But like they had the same record as the Panthers. It's just that like things broke differently in terms, like we remember the end of the Panthers season looking great. Whereas for the saints, it was early before a bunch of guys got hurt, but like this roster and team wasn't that bad. They were absolutely decimated by the end

1:43:46Robert Mays: of last year. They had no pass catchers. And so we'll see, you know, I think with a lot of a, obviously it's just a different sort of injury concern because we're talking about concussions. And so that can happen at any time. And you know, there's more going on there than his football future. And so that's just something to keep in mind when thinking about what this group could look like, but him and Shahid together, I just think is one of the more dynamic receiver duos in the league. Even if Rashid Shahid is maybe a little bit more limited than other guys would get excited about. I will say about the offensive line, just to throw like a tiny bit of cold water on this.

1:44:19Robert Mays: This is still a theory. We're talking about a rookie left tackle. We're talking about a second year guy changing sides. We're talking about Trevor Penning, who has been undeniably bad at tackle. That's why they're moving him inside. This is not a cure all. like just taking a bad tackle and making him a guard doesn't make him a functional player. And he's dealing with a turf toe that's going to keep him out for a while. So I think if things go well, there are versions of this offensive line that are good. I'm not treating that as any sort of certainty here as we're getting toward the season.

1:44:51Dave Helman: If I dig a little deeper, I know that, right? Like I can look at the unit and I know that, but there's something about looking at those names on paper and being like, they'll hit the 80th percentile and they'll be okay. Like, I can't stop myself from doing it. And I don't know why I'm doing that with the New Orleans Saints, but I am.

1:45:08Derrik Klassen: I do think Eric McCoy is a criminally underappreciated player. And I think his loss specifically was, uh, there were, there were so many reasons why it went off the cliff last year, but Eric McCoy going out early in the year and not coming back until it was not salvageable, I think that that goes underappreciated in the league landscape.

1:45:30Robert Mays: Let's talk about the swing points potentially for the 2025 New Orleans Saints. What do you got for me, Derek? Where could this year pivot in your mind for the Saints?

1:45:39Dave Helman: For me, it's kind of it's the secondary because they have a lot of new pieces in here. I mean, they brought in two new safeties with Justin Reed, which I think at the time we were like, to what end are they doing this? But like, again, if I don't think this team is going to be an embarrassment i get why they wanted to do that they bring in julian blackman to i think help replace tyron matthew um retiring isaac yottam is going to be their other corner uh they're really asking a lot of kool-aid mckinstry who they drafted in the second round last year to step up obviously they had traded away latimore and stuff like that so and then even at the nickel alante taylor is one banged up but has been a player where he's either really good or really bad and like it just depending on which way he swings for for any given stretch i think could could go a long way so if like I think in the Brandon Saley defense which we're going to talk about a little bit more in depth later the safety play really matters and I do think having a guy like Justin Reed actually could go a long way there so I just there's I can see the world where this goes right but they do need at least like three out of five of these guys to really play closest to their best

1:46:38Robert Mays: level stylistically I think Justin Reed and Julian Blackman actually do make sense together I actually think that Justin Reed kind of makes up for a lot of the weaknesses Julian Blackman And I think Julian Blackman's tackling issues, some of that has been driven by some of the injuries that he has dealt with. But what Justin Reed is bringing to you as a tackler and just as a physical presence at safety, I think does make up for some of the concerns you might have about Julian Blackman.

1:47:02Dave Helman: Yeah, I couldn't agree. It's like the perfect little again, like it's Julian Blackman. I think we forget that like two years ago, a lot of people were excited about him as like, oh, man, is he one of those like up and coming? And then just injury stuff kind of got it taken away from him.

1:47:15Robert Mays: what do you what is your like confidence level that this can turn into a workable secondary

1:47:22Dave Helman: with all of those guys that you just talked about i mean workable like i would say like 50 60 percent like i again elante taylor i think at times can be really good and like i think mckinstree is i think in an ideal world like a higher end number two corner for you but like given where they're at with this unit i think that can be fine and then i think justin reed is unless he hits the age cliff this year, still one of the top eight safeties in the NFL, probably like, I think there's enough here that I can, that I can piece it together.

1:47:51Robert Mays: Dave, what is your swing point for the 2025 saints?

1:47:56Derrik Klassen: Maybe it's the new Orleanian in me, but I just, I can't let go of my interest in the holdovers from the Sean Payton era. And there aren't, there aren't as many, but there are surprising numbers still kicking around. And if the ones that were on the roster weren't good enough I love that a Brandon Cooks reunion is going to be part of this season I'd like that

1:48:16Robert Mays: we'll see how much Brandon Cooks plays considering they just traded a fourth round pick for Devon

1:48:19Derrik Klassen: Vele which by the way that's insane can we talk about that for a minute I would like to because

1:48:25Dave Helman: Devon Vele great he was like when you find the undrafted 26 year old or whatever he was as the Broncos in Sean Payton's offense you're like cool nice little find you don't go trade a fourth round pick for that guy. Like that's insane.

1:48:40Robert Mays: Especially when you're at this stage, when you're the saints, like I think any team that is potentially going to be in the quarterback draft market the following year, you cannot be trading away picks. You're probably going to need to give, unless you end up with the number one pick and we'll talk about this, or you're in position to draft one ammo is very important when you could potentially be in the quarterback market. So if you feel, unless you feel very good about Tyler Shuck being your 2026 quarterback, and I just don't know how you can say that about a quarterback drafted 40th overall, given the hit rate of those guys at the position, you just can't be doing this.

1:49:14Derrik Klassen: It's such a good trade. If you have ambition for the coming season, right? Like I love it. If you think you're going somewhere. And if, if Mickey Loomis believes in his heart of hearts, that this team has ambition be even like, Oh, whatever, maybe they defy all the odds and make the playoffs. Like for what to what for to what end like Derek said about the Dolphins the other night like I and and he's gonna be 28 next year when you're probably retooling the quarterback's position it it's weird across the board it doesn't make sense unless you just don't have any self-awareness

1:49:50Robert Mays: about where you are in your roster I mean that's what the New Orleans Saints have been for the last

1:49:55Derrik Klassen: five years I don't know why I say that with a tone of surprise in my voice um no people are

1:50:00Robert Mays: going to be yelling at their computers, being like, it's a fourth round pick who gives a shit. Yeah, that's probably true. But that doesn't mean the year before.

1:50:06Dave Helman: Like, what are we talking about?

1:50:07Robert Mays: That doesn't mean this is worth doing. Like you still want more fourth round picks. They're going to have a fourth round comp pick next year. It was too much. The idea that they were going to have two fourth round picks after having two fourth round picks this year, unacceptable to them.

1:50:21Derrik Klassen: I do think, I do think Valey was a seventh, seventh rounder. He was drafted. Sorry. He was drafted.

1:50:27Robert Mays: That's pretty good ROI for the Broncos. There we go.

1:50:30Derrik Klassen: he's picked 235. So it's not as if you're far off, Derek. I mean, I get it in a vacuum. A fourth round pick isn't that big of a deal, but when you are a team, that's not represents David. Exactly. Well, not only that, but like they, they are important though. You need bites at the apple. You need the ability to pick players and maybe you will find somebody important with that fourth round pick. I mean, the saints know better than anybody. That 2017 draft class was insane. They found difference makers at every level of the thing. Like they're like one pick isn't that big of a deal, but yeah, it just represents the ability to add talent to your roster.

1:51:09Derrik Klassen: And to think that that's not important where you are right now is, is strange. Um, to get back to my point, like, yeah, I don't have high expectations for Brandon cooks this season. I think we, we can mercifully let go of the idea that cam Jordan is like a true difference maker at this stage in his career, but there still are some older players, obviously DeMario Davis. I already mentioned Eric McCoy, uh, who, who was drafted toward the end of Sean Payton's time, but he was there for the Sean Payton years. Camara, uh, obviously there are some guys, there are some older guys that just could be linchpins here where it's like, how much, how much do you have in the tank?

1:51:50Derrik Klassen: How high of a level are you going to play? And you're playing an important enough position where if you can dig deep and find good production, it could mean a lot.

1:52:00Robert Mays: What's keeping us up at night about the Saints, I think, is the same for all three of us. But Derek, I'm going to let you dig into this. What is keeping you up at night about the 2025 New Orleans Saints?

1:52:09Dave Helman: Yeah, I mean, it's the quarterbacks like there's no there's really no dancing around it. And I think that that is actually especially true. I know, again, it's the preseason, but I think that that is especially true after watching them in the preseason. Like I think Spencer Rattler when the ball comes out is the better player. But his issue is that the ball does not come out often enough. He is very like he has a lot of the same issues that like Caleb Williams has, but he's not nearly as talented of a mover or creator as Caleb Williams has. So you just end up with a guy who takes a million sacks.

1:52:38Dave Helman: And I think even in the preseason, again, we're seeing some of that. And then Tyler Shuck for again, I know it's the preseason and I know that we've seen guys have bad preseasons and then look perfectly fine by the regular season. He has just not impressed me. He just does not yet look like a guy who the speed of the game makes sense to him. He does not look like a guy who comfort in the pocket is very natural to him right now. And so, again, maybe by November, some of that stuff is sorted out and he feels like he knows how the bullets are flying. But again, for a guy they spent, what, the 40th pick on you and a guy who's older, who's like a 25, 26 year old prospect.

1:53:12Dave Helman: You kind of want him to be out of the gate pretty good. And I'm just a little bit dubious of that.

1:53:15Robert Mays: yeah i mean 40th overall picks at quarterback and the hit rate in the history of this is not good period let alone a quarterback with tyler shucks your checkered background like this could absolutely work and i there are some elements about tyler chuck as a prospect that we're worth getting excited about but there are plenty of red flags about how this is going to go with a tyler shucks spencer rattler quarterback room my assumption is that rattler will start the season and then we will see Shuck eventually because they need some answers on this. But even in a decent situation, even if we think that the supporting cast personnel-wise is solid, if the offensive line comes together, there is a chance that the Saints just get very, very bad quarterback play for a majority of this year.

1:53:58Robert Mays: And that's really hard to overcome, even with a spectacular supporting cast, let alone one that's probably going to be middle of the road, even in a good situation.

1:54:07Derrik Klassen: I already mentioned it, so I won't dwell on it long, but I lose a lot of sleep thinking about the idea that Tyler Shuck is the Saints' multi-year backup after this year because they will draft a quarterback. And, I mean, you need a backup, that's fine, but if you draft a quarterback in the first round and all you got out of Tyler Shuck was six starts in which you won one game in his rookie year and the rest of it is just a super expensive insurance policy. It's not the end of the world, but I don't think it's good process. Not when you had a pretty good idea of how this season was going to go before you even drafted him.

1:54:51Robert Mays: I'm going to throw two teams out, both in the AFC South, that approach this in very different ways. The Texans just rolled with Davis Mills, right? They knew they weren't doing anything, so they just rolled with Davis Mills. They were bad. They got a top five pick. They drafted CJ Stroud the next year. They saved whatever second round pick they would have spent on a quarterback in the previous draft. The Titans did the opposite of this. They drafted Will Levis because in their minds, it's like, well, we need a quarterback. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is, right? Like they were obsessed with CJ Stroud in that draft.

1:55:23Robert Mays: They decided we need to come out of this with a quarterback. They traded up for Will Levis, which made it doubly bad, but they still drafted Will Levis in the second round. Will Levis was bad and the Titans were back in the quarterback market the next year again anyway. And so while spending a 40th overall pick when you don't have a quarterback on one just to take a chance, it's not the worst thing in the world. The idea of we need to make sure we're trying to find a quarterback this year just isn't true when you are in the spot that the Saints are in. It's just a need to kind of wave at the idea of competing when it's not overly necessary.

1:55:56Derrik Klassen: there's some irony there because maybe if Tyler Shuck helps him get the number one pick in the draft the way Will Levis did I mean we're gonna talk about that in a second here that's not the last time I'm gonna make this comparison this was Mickey's master plan the entire time I don't know

1:56:10Robert Mays: if he's got any of those at this point spending a top 40 pick to do that does not feel worth it to me Derek what excuse me Dave what are you watching in the first month of the season with the 2025

1:56:19Derrik Klassen: Saints I have an earnest answer for this and I'm actually really excited about it again as somebody who was in high school when Sean Payton got to New Orleans, we knew he was a hotshot offensive mind from the Cowboys. We knew that the Cowboys had a good offense, but as crazy as it seems now, we didn't know Sean Payton, the guy, and he was young. I remember when Sean Payton got to New Orleans, like he wore a visor all the time. I mean, he still does, but like he, he looked much younger. He looked like Dennis the menace. Like he looked like a cartoon character and he would like, you know, he would like yell on the sideline and get super animated.

1:56:56Derrik Klassen: And it was goofy. And like, it's, it's funny to think about that now with 20 years of context of what a great coach he is and all that he's accomplished. But when he got there, he was just a young dude with a good track record, but not the cemented status that he has now. And I think Kellen Moore is a very fun parallel because what do we know about Kellen Moore? We know that his offenses are great. He's had success pretty much everywhere he's gone. Let's just not talk about the Chargers season. He's had a lot of good offenses. He's helped a lot of good quarterbacks play and score touchdowns. He won a Super Bowl.

1:57:30Derrik Klassen: He's got this great mind for the game, but he's a young dude. He, he looks like your next door neighbor kind of, you know, like he doesn't look like somebody that's going to get up in front of an NFL locker room and just get everybody to want to run through a brick wall. And I'm, I'm just curious to see Kellen Moore, the head coach, like not, not how the saints even play, but like, what does he do on Sunday? Like, is he barking at the refs? Is he going, is he going over to the refs before the game being like, Hey, we noticed this about their coverage, like throw a, throw a flag on this shit when they do it, I'm telling you, it's going to happen.

1:58:05Derrik Klassen: Like, is he winning in the margins on special teams? Does he like jump into a player's arms when they score a game-winning touchdown? I don't know. We don't know about anything about Kellen Moore in this situation. And I think it'll be fun to find out.

1:58:19Robert Mays: I would 100 % agree with this. I think so much of what the Saints have done this offseason has kind of happened in the darkness of night. We haven't talked about it at all. I think part of it is because the Eagles won the Super Bowl, so they hired Kellen Moore a little bit later. And Kellen Moore is just kind of a forgettable head coaching hire. There's nothing overly exciting about bringing in Kellen Moore to be your head coach. I think he was a solid offensive coordinator over the last few years. He was not the hottest name on the market. And this extends to what they did with the defensive coordinator.

1:58:46Like, I just don't, if you asked 10 random NFL fans who the defensive coordinator is

1:58:52Robert Mays: for the new Orleans saints, do you think half of them would know it's Brandon Staley? Absolutely not.

1:58:56Dave Helman: There's no, I don't think so.

1:58:58Robert Mays: And I'm curious what Brandon Staley in his second go around as a defensive coordinator. How does this look? Because some guys are just better suited to be coordinators. so him the combination of him and kallin moore i think there are a lot of reasons to be not that enthused about the saints i'm at least curious about how this goes the the staley thing really

1:59:17Dave Helman: fascinates me more because obviously what he did in la was insanely cool but also like he was cheating you have aaron donald and jaylen ramsey like you have probably like two of the most five like field tilting players uh in the league at the time and so even though he was doing cool stuff he was getting away with stuff that he wasn't allowed to when he realized he had to pivot off of some of that as the head coach of the Chargers just felt like maybe too many things on his plate you know trying to trying to do too many things at one time now that he can be like okay how do I call my defense without getting without having some of those cheat code answers but also now I don't have to worry about our week to week as a head coach thing like I just who knows if it's going to work but it's just I am at least like pretty excited that we get to see what that might look like for him.

2:00:04Robert Mays: Let's talk about what success means for the, what success looks like for the 2025 saints. I'm going to give you guys a very specific answer to this. I kind of, you know, waved at it before. If the saints have the 2024 Titans season where they have a second round quarterback who was very, very bad, the offensive infrastructure with a play calling head coach who used to be an offensive coordinator looks solid, right? It's not embarrassing. even if this team is shooting itself in the foot over and over and over again because the quarterback play is so problematic. If you have some young pieces along the offensive line, but it doesn't all the way come together, and you have a defense where you feel good about the coordinator, and you think, all right, if we get better talent in here over the next couple years, can we feel like we can be like a top 10-ish sort of defense?

2:00:49Robert Mays: So can they have the 2024 Tennessee Titans season where they pick number one overall, but we feel good about all of those other things. That to me is success for the saints. I'm sure Mickey Loomis and Kellen Moore and everyone there wouldn't say that success. That to me is like the best case scenario for how this can go for new Orleans.

2:01:09Dave Helman: Yeah. Like to me, it's, it could be landing at the first overall pick. It could be like miraculously waltzing into eight games, you know, eight wins somehow or another. But to me, it's just like, if we feel good about Kellen Moore and we feel good about the offensive line, like that's it. And again, it does not matter if they win three games or eight. If we get those two things and then we can insert the quarterback in there, we're chilling.

2:01:29Robert Mays: They shouldn't win eight games. No one that roots for the Saints should be rooting for them to win eight games. The only path that is OK if they win eight games is that Tyler Shuck is on his way to being like a top 12 quarterback as part of that calculus to win eight games. If that is not the case, do not want them to win eight games.

2:01:48Dave Helman: That is like logically the right thing. But I am a little bit I have a little bit of Mickey Loomis brain where I kind of respect like always compete. So, you know, okay.

2:01:56Derrik Klassen: That's a lose. That's a perfect. I'm glad you said that Derek, because it's funny. Two things can be true. And this conversation happens in every bad NFL city, every fall where people want the better draft pick. So their team tank and they're rooting for losses. And you got to remember there, there, there's a difference between the locker room and the front office, right? Like the coaches and the players are going to always compete because you got to worry about your job the next day, right? Like we saw it with the Giants beating the Colts last year, all like draft pick be damned. We are professionals and we're going to try our best to win a game.

2:02:33Derrik Klassen: The front office doesn't always have to view it that way. The front office can say, Hey, if we see some good things from our coach that make us feel good about that hire, we see some young players take steps and we're competitive, but the record is bad. We're not going to say this publicly, but that's a okay. The problem is Mickey Loomis doesn't seem capable of thinking that way. And that's why I agree with you, Robert. I think that is a best case scenario for the saints would be to be the Titans. But I think the organization feels so stubbornly against admitting that type of stuff that this team by hook or by crook will find a way to not be the number one overall pick.

2:03:15Derrik Klassen: And so I would just say, as long as you don't play your way out of range for a quarterback, I can live with that. If you're picking eighth or 10th, preferably higher, but at the bare minimum, if you're picking top 10, you can find your way to a quarterback, especially with the quarterback class looking the way that it does. I mean, obviously we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but there are three to five guys that people are really excited about heading into the college season. Shameless plug. You can go hear about it on building the beast with me and Dane Brugler. If you are a saints fan, but the class should be good enough that you have a shot.

2:03:50Derrik Klassen: So number one, overall pick would be great, but just, just don't play your way out of range where drafting a quarterback is a pipe dream instead of a realistic possibility.

2:04:00Robert Mays: They might be within striking distance of a quarterback now, but when they trade a third round pick for Jalen Coker next week, that's going to start changing. All right. that's all we got for the 2025 new Orleans saints and for the NFC South and 2025, we sincerely appreciate you guys tuning in. We will be back with the AFC South on Monday. Very much looking forward to that. Please come tune into that. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

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