2025 NFL Midseason Awards

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. a two-man race for Offensive Player of the Year that I did not expect to look like this. Coach of the Year was a really good one. So we had a bunch of different answers. I think a lot of really fun cases made over the course of this show. So let's just get to it. Mid-season awards, me, Derek Klassen, Dave Hellman. Let's get to it right now.

0:53Mid-season awards time on the old athletic football show. I've been looking forward to this one. This is the first midweek show I think all three of us have done from the studio this year. Is that not correct? You and I did Team Tears together. I think this is the first midweek show, not counting previews, that all three of us have done together, period. I think that's right. I think so. I don't think even when I was back home, I don't think we did any of these, all three of us together. I'm very excited for this conversation. Just a quick heads up. I'm sure there are some of you who listened to me on Football 301 last week picking awards with Nate.

1:24for reasons that some legitimate, some just for the sake of content. I have all different choices. You're switching. Oh, you're switching up. I'm switching almost all of them. There's only one. There are two to three actual answers that I'm sticking with as like, okay, these are my real answers. And then a lot of the other ones that were coin flips, I've just decided to go the other way for the sake of like entertaining myself. As someone who listened to that episode, I'm ready to call you a genius or a coward depending on what you do. I think there's so many where the margins are super slim that I'm just in the mood to kind of argue with myself today.

1:59And so don't just think this is going to be a rehashing of the conversation I had last week, because for multiple different reasons, I'm not going to allow that to happen. We're going to end with MVP. I've always enjoyed doing it that way. I like doing some of the smaller ones first and then we can build up to the most important award. So let's start with offensive player of the year. this is a fascinating year for this award specifically just because i think that there are two really really really strong candidates and which one you pick in my opinion probably says more about you than it does about the candidacy of that player so let's start with you derrick your pick for offensive player of the year in 2020 for halfway through the 2025 season is who for me it's actually jsn and i went into this this is i know i'm not surprised at all like When he said, actually, it's JSN, I'm like, yeah, of course it is.

2:48I thought he would have been a Jonathan Taylor guy. I went into this with my process of being like, how can I give it to the running back? Because I do think Jonathan Taylor has been incredible this year. And I think we're at a point in the league right now where there's just so many insanely good running backs. And when they have one of these seasons, I think it's really cool. But what JSN is doing statistically is just like, it's completely absurd. He has 20 more receiving yards a game than anyone else in the league. he's averaging a yard more than Cooper Cup did per game in his triple crown season in 2021.

3:16He has 4.67 yards per route right now, which is like it's almost a full yard over what Tyree Kill did in 2023, which is the best mark in the last decade. Did that go up from last week when you and Nate talked about it? 4.67 is up from where it was last week. It's insane. It's obscene. And like he and he's doing this with insane volume, obviously. 38.1 % target rate, which is the highest in the last decade outside of hookah last year, actually, funnily enough. And 20.2 % of his routes become first downs. Nobody else in the last decade has been over 18%. Like he's just, the volume and efficiency is absurd.

3:53In an offense that doesn't have another guy who's taking pressure away from him, like they have other nice role players, but he is the guy. The volume and the concentrated volume is one of the biggest things for me. The fact that he's getting almost 40 % of the targets for the team that I believe is still number one in passing DVOA this season. And the efficiency, despite the volume, it's really, really, really hard to do that. To have 4.6 yards per route run while getting 38 % of your team's targets is almost impossible to do. And so I think Jonathan Taylor has been phenomenal this season, but JSN is still my pick for this exact reason.

4:31Like, we're having a really, really good running back season from Jonathan Taylor. We are having a historic wide receiver season from JSN halfway through, and that's why I landed in the same place that I did last week. If you want me to tear down JSN, I'm not going to do it. But Jonathan Taylor is your favorite. Jonathan Taylor is my offensive player of the year. And then the stats that go with JT are just as silly. He has more rushing yards than 20 NFL teams. He's averaging 189 attempts, so I think that's worth mentioning. This is not—you can't call this a small sample size. He's averaging six yards a carry.

5:07So what I wanted to do was go back and look at among running backs that have taken, I'll say like a meaningful share of carries. I set the cutoff at 150 because like if you take 150 carries, you're a little bit more than like a change of pace guy. Going back to the year 2000, only two running backs have carried the ball 150 times an average six years, 150 or more times an average six yards carry. Adrian Peterson did it twice, which is not surprising, but crazy. Including 2012 when he won MVP. And then Jamal Charles did it in 2009. Obviously, Jamal Charles did it with a smaller sample size than Adrian Peterson.

5:42But like that's it. When you're talking about being able to average that many yards per carry over that heavy of a workload. I mean, the guy's on pace for north of 300 touches. Best EPA per carry of the last decade. So for reference, Derek Henry had an EPA per play of 0.11. JT's at 0.16 right now. Like he's blowing, like statistically. That's really good quarterback play. That's like pro-balled quarterback numbers. He is eighth in rushing yards over expectation in the next-gen era, which tracks this back to 2016. So over the last decade, he's behind seven other running back seasons. And all seven of those guys have a minimum of 80 more carries than he does right now.

6:24So like he's in their company doing it on fewer touches. He's on pace. I don't want to say he's going to do it because he's had a few like three touchdown games and you just can't count on that. But he has got a shot at the first 20 rushing touchdown season since LT in 2006. He's at 15 with and the Colts had a late by. They're on their by right now. So like he only has. What's that? He's got seven games left to play, but that's doable. You're five touchdowns away in seven games. I would bet on him scoring one a game from here. That feels completely realistic to me. And then it's hard to quantify this stuff, but you just can't tell me that it doesn't have an effect on what Daniel Jones is doing.

7:06Like, I know we all recognize that play action can be successful no matter who your running back is, but when your running back is Jonathan Taylor, I think it matters. Daniel Jones is third in the league in play action rate. Colts have the third highest play action rate in the league right now behind the Ravens and the Seahawks. And the key difference there is that Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold have combined for 117 play action attempts. Daniel Jones has 125 on his own. My God. So like they're they're just as explosive while doing it way more often. And you can't tell me that that's not Jonathan Taylor having an impact on things.

7:43And if I had to think of a way what I would say, like if you're looking for a way to say to take JT over JSN. And I know this doesn't have a direct effect, but in the grand scheme of a game, I think it does. The Seahawks have a top five defense and the Colts are middle of the pack, you know. And so having that thing to fall back on, the Seahawks are one of the most complete teams in the league is what I'm trying to say. I think the Colts are very, very, very much built out of Jonathan Taylor. The Taylor is their means for controlling the game, whereas the Seahawks' defense is that. I think that's all fair.

8:16Thank you for saying that smarter than me. I think that's all fair. I think that Jonathan Taylor is a key driver of why the Colts' offensive ecosystem is arguably the best in the league right now. JSN to me is the Seahawks offensive ecosystem. There is no run game, right? Their run game is actively bad. And so I think that is why, that's one of the reasons, aside from like the historic pace that he is currently on right now, that it's like, if it's a coin flip, I'm tempted to just give it to JSN. I don't, I don't feel strongly like about who would win this award. I don't really either. This isn't a situation where I'm like, JT got screwed, But I just I think it's really impressive.

8:59And I know we have obviously Sam Darnold did not play like this last year, but we have a like we have to a season and a half of evidence that Sam Darnold is a high level quarterback who can help a receiver reach new highs. I don't know that I would like what Daniel Jones looks like without Jonathan Taylor doing what he's doing for the Colts offense. And so like the overall effect that he is having on the Colts, I think is it's just massive. That's fair, but at the same time, the Colts offense is one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league. They have a play caller who we'll talk about at some point on this show.

9:33And we've discussed many times that their pass catching core, while without a true superstar player, is arguably the deepest, most well-rounded, complimentary group of pass catchers in the entire NFL. Oh, they also have a top five offensive line. Yeah, these are all fair things. I think I will see, like, JSN is a worthy winner. I just got to make sure JT gets his flowers. The whole point is, these are the two guys that I think are in the conversation. It'd be pretty surprising if somebody other than these two wins. I was going to say, did you even sort of consider anyone else? Because I did have one I wanted to make the argument before.

10:08If Fuka was healthier. I think it's going to be hard efficiency-wise, but CMC has some amount of argument. He's second only to JT in yards from scrimmage per game, and a lot of that is receiving, but that's also like the fact that they could be so banged up and turn to their running back as a receiver like that. It's a skill. He's been incredible. Their running back who also has had durability issues of his own, who is carrying so much of the load for them. No, that's a fair point. Let's get to defensive player of the year. Dave, I'm going to let you start this one off. Who is your defensive player of the year halfway through 2025?

10:45So it feels, I don't know. Do you guys agree with me that it feels disingenuous to say somebody other than Miles Garrett? Yes and no. Like, please. It's the Mahomes thing where he's the answer every year. Yes. And so I think there are a couple different reasons I would say you can say somebody other than Miles Garrett, which I'm going to just for the sake of argument. The reason I ask is because that's what I did. Like, if I was actually casting a vote for Defensive Player of the Year, I would vote for Miles Garrett. But is that interesting? And so I went with somebody else for the for purely for the sake of conversation and for the fact that we have a whole second half of the season to go, like when we're actually talking about winning this award.

11:30So here's what I would say. Miles Garrett right now, if you watch what Miles Garrett looks like down to down, Miles Garrett is the best defensive football player in the world. He's the best defensive player in the world every single year. He is doing more against the run than he has ever done at any point in his career this year. He's been better in that area than he's ever been. I think you make an argument that this is the best version we've ever seen of Miles Garrett, just purely as a football player. And we said that last year. Yes. And which is crazy. The fact that he's getting better. No one garners more attention from opposing offenses than Miles Garrett.

11:59No one's offensive game plan is built more centrally around Miles Garrett. At the same time, production-wise, Miles Garrett right now, there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 players per next gen that have more quarterback pressures than Miles Garrett. And so if you're trying to make an argument, that's one of them. And the other one is, I just like for it to be different, right? Like it's every once in a while, it's just fun to throw somebody else out there. I said Miles Garrett last week. I'm going to say somebody different now for the sake of conversation. I'd love to know what Miles Garrett's pressure numbers would look like if the Browns played in games that weren't out of whack in the second half.

12:32I mean, you're not facing a lot of pass attempts as those games go on. Anyway, if I was actually putting a ballot in the box or clicking, what am I? Who am I kidding? You're clicking a button in 2025. If I was actually voting, I would say Myles Garrett. But for the sake of this, and there's a lot of season left to play, I would choose to highlight Aiden Hutchinson because he is leading the league in pressures. He's third in the league in win percentage behind Will Anderson and Myles Garrett. Seven sacks in nine games. He's comfortably on pace for a career high. Tied for third in the league in quarterback hits.

13:09Lions are fifth in defensive DVOA. Like he's he is a key cog in one of the better defenses in the NFL on a team that is looks like it's headed for the playoffs. And my other point, this is very cynical. And I know I know we're we're calling this midseason awards, but I'm trying to look ahead to what will actually happen. I was curious to note last eight games of their season. The Lions play six times in a national window. So like that does help Sunday night football against Philadelphia. Thanksgiving Day against Green Bay in two weeks. the week they double up on Thursdays. Thursday after that, they play Dallas on Thursday night football.

13:46Two 330 games against the Rams and the Steelers, and they have a Christmas Day game. This dude's going to be on national TV for most of the second half of the season. So he has the numbers. He is on the caliber of team that gets voted for awards like this, and he's going to have a chance to make those type of plays in games that a lot of people are watching. So I think Miles Garrett's the best defensive player in the NFL right now, but I would have no problem voting for him based on what he's done and what I think he might do in the second half of the season. I think that is truly impressive gamesmanship on your part.

14:18Like finding out how you could win the angle. What is the craziest angle that this guy could win? We would all... I thought that was seriously impressive. We would all love for everybody to care just as much about Kamani Vidal as they do about Derrick Henry. And we would love for everybody to watch every game. It's not realistic. and stuff like that matters when you're talking about these big time awards and I just think between being on that caliber of team being visible being the best known player on the Lions defense especially because the secondary has been a little bit banged up like he's going to have every opportunity to kind of be the face of a power team.

14:55I think he would be on the short list any short list I would put together of who should win the award. And he's also he's really freaking good just in case I'm only talking about you know television numbers like he's awesome. Who is your pick? Did you just pick Myles Garrett? I, if I, if I, it's the same thing Dave said, like if I'm just like picking who is the best NFL player on that side of the ball, it's Miles Garrett, but I did not pick Miles Garrett. I did not pick a pass rusher. I think it's Kyle Hamilton. I love this. I'm so glad that you're doing this. If I'm trying to make, I'm always trying to like do the realistic thing.

15:24And Derek's like, no, I want the pure thing. This is who he thinks is the defensive player of the year. Not who should win. Not if he had a vote, who, who is the defensive player of the year. And I like this. Because to me, this is like who is and we've kind of used this framing before. Who is the most load bearing player for their team? I think it is Myles Garrett. But if we're looking past Myles Garrett, to me, it's Kyle Hamilton. The fact that you can move him every year and it's a different spot every year, because like back when he had been playing the nickel before, he wasn't as much like sitting on the edge and on the line of scrimmage like he was playing the nickel as a cover player.

15:59Then they move him back to safety like last year. Looks incredible again. He's the best player there. Now they move him back to the nickel and he's really almost like an edge player now and he's blowing shit up every single play like he's just there is not a player in the back seven like him. He is a truly one of one player and I think he's been out of his mind since they moved him. The other part that's fun for me is all the thing you said about him playing on the edge 100 % correct. He's become one of the most important pass rushers on the Ravens over the last four weeks since they moved him into the box.

16:27And now I think we're going to see this start creeping up and up and up with their current defensive personnel. they're set up to play dime on a lot of third downs. He's their dime linebacker. So he's going to be doing like six different things well over the back half of the season for a defense that you can see it now. We're going to be sitting there on December 20th and I'm going to be some asshole on a preview show being like in weeks one through five, the Ravens defense was da-da-da-da-da this situationally. In weeks six through 14, the Ravens are actually the best defense in the league at X, Y, and Z.

17:01and the exact thing you can draw from point A to point B is the way that they're using Kyle Hamilton. You can already see it playing out right now. Yeah, and like there's just like, again, there are so many other players that are great, but he's changed positions effectively in the middle of the season and he's at minimum like a top five defensive player. It's insane to me. He's a unicorn. He's the best. He's also, he won't win this award. He won't because he doesn't, because even him playing well right now, he doesn't have the numbers. Yeah, you don't have stats. And that position, it's hard.

17:29In order to win this award as a defensive back, period, but especially as a safety, you need a historic production year. Like Charles Woodson, when he won it, it's all those interceptions, all those forced fumbles, all those sacks. Kyle Hamilton's just not going to have that. I mean, in part because it's really hard to do. And the other part of it is he didn't play close to the line of scrimmage for the first five games of the season. But I love the fact that you mentioned Kyle Hamilton. I think if I was building a list of five guys right now, I think the two guys that you said would absolutely be on that short list.

17:59Miles Garrett, who, again, I just think is the best defense player in the world. We're in a last week. Aredondonial territory with that. He is, you watch him and it's like, that's the best guy. I like, that is the best guy. There's not even like a discussion about that right now. He's the best one. Micah Parsons, I think, is on the tier that Miles Garrett exists on. And I think he deserves mention in this. My winner, because I think that Miles Garrett had a quiet-ish week last week. And if you look at the entire season in total, the numbers and the fact that I think he's leveled up a little bit in a way that's interesting to me.

18:31My answer is Will Anderson Jr. today. Guys who played the Jacksonville Jaguars did not have a quiet week. So it's a good time to talk about it. I recorded a video about this today. It's going to come out a little bit later this week on the I Thought of Football Show YouTube channel. And I was telling Derek about this before we recorded it. When we look at like leaps in the NFL, I think that often we only notice the big ones. You know, when guys go from Drake May looking like a good quarterback for a rookie to, oh man, he might be the MVP of the league. We notice those things. The ones that are subtler, sometimes we can miss them because I think we bucket guys as he's good or he's not good.

19:06We know that Will Anderson has been a good player. We're aware of this. He is a different player now as a pass rusher than he was over the last couple of years. When you watch him play, and I think maybe that's one of the reasons I felt inclined to pick him is that I had spent all of last night just rewatching every pressure from the Texans defense this season. When you're looking at last year, Will Anderson had 60 pressures and he was productive, but a lot of his production as a pass rusher over his first two seasons were a product of him being an incredible athlete, right? Like the type of player that is allotted truly like once every four or five years defensive prospect and just plays harder than almost anyone else you're going to see.

19:43Like is wired the right way and is incredibly talented. That is enough to be a productive NFL player. And that's what he was over the first two years. And somebody on their staff told me this during training camp. They're like, he's put it all together now. Like the sequencing of it, the timing of it, the confidence. And when you watch him as a pass rusher now, you can feel that. So his get off, if you look at the next gen numbers, is like top five and has been over the last couple of years. He explodes off the ball. And so obviously offensive tackles are setting for speed because they're worried about him getting the corner on them.

20:12When they do that now, how clean and crisp and efficient his like speed to power bull rushes are and the way that he's just collapsing the pocket, he's affecting games now in a way that he just wasn't over his first couple of years. And it's happening consistently. And this just isn't like a qualitative thing. It shows up in the numbers as well. So far this year, Dave mentioned it. He's number one in pass rush win rate per PFF right now, which you see that when you watch him. Only Nick Benito has more quick quarterback pressures this year. Only Nick Benito among players with at least 200 pass rush snaps has a higher quick quarterback percentage.

20:48then then you combine it with how much attention is being paid to Will Anderson. The only two guys in the NFL with more than 200 pass rush snaps per next gen that have been shipped more often than Will Anderson are TJ Watt and Miles Garrett. That's it. And he has the quickest time to pressure 2.51 seconds of any pass rusher in the league with more than 200 pass rush snaps. You feel it. And this is like a perfect mixture of eye test anecdote and the numbers lining up. And so I think if I was voting right now, it would probably be Miles Garrett. But Will Anderson Jr. is the next guy that I would mention.

21:24Due to my fixation on narrative, it is interesting to think, what are the Texans right now? Four and five? I think they're five and five, right? Four and five. Four and five. They're four and five. Safe to say, I mean, Jacksonville is a perfect example. They gave him a shot against Denver. God help him. But like, Like if this defense keeps the Texans relevant until CJ Stroud's available, if this team can, I don't want to say put it together because I don't know how much you can do with that offensive line. But like if they stay relevant enough to where the offense can give them a better chance to sneak into a wild card spot or anything like that, it'll be because Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter and Derek Stingley and those guys were so exceptional in this rough stretch for them.

22:08So I think that is something worth keying on when you get to the last, you know, three, four weeks of the season. I just love this for him because you mentioned it. Like he's a player where when you hear him talk, when you heard him talk as a prospect when he was like 21 years old, or you just watch him play, he clearly does just like have the right stuff to him. Like just. Which that's how he can when he came out. That's what everyone said about him. It's just like that guy is like the best human being that's ever existed. And it's just like for him to like it all fully come together where, again, he was a great athlete coming in and he's always been a good run defender.

22:41But for him to now like be able to access some of the violence he had as a run defender into what he's doing as a pass rusher sequence and into stuff like he's one of those three or four unblockable ends at this point. Will was your preseason pick, wasn't he? And Hutchinson was my preseason pick. So I have no idea. Mine probably was Miles Garrett. No, I think yours was Micah. Oh, yeah. Well, it probably was because we probably did this right after the trade. So that makes sense. Yeah. Just keeping tabs on that. Yeah, that part of it didn't even really get into my mind. I guess maybe the only reason that that's linked is because I like him as a player.

23:13Sure. Maybe that's the only reason that I'm inclined to watch him because I like him as a player. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back with the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.

23:26All right, Offensive Rookie of the Year. Derek, why don't you kick this one off? who is your offensive rookie of the year halfway through 2025? My answer is Ted Arroa McMillan. I think when I watch him, I enjoy this. Statistically, he does not have the case that Tyler Warren is going to have or Mecca Buka, or even if you wanted to make the case for like Jackson Dart relative to rookie quarterback, he's probably not going to have the statistical case. When I watch him play enough games. Right. But when I watch him play football, that's the best rookie in my mind. Like he is just an absolute dog.

23:59And like, even I do think he has some of the good, You're a true Hoopers purist. Yeah, I mean, I'm a trade London. I love the big guy go catch football, Tee Higgins, all that stuff. But the volume numbers are not there, but his underlying efficiency numbers are pretty crazy. 48.1 % of his targets right now go for first downs, which is the best among rookies. He's a guy that you throw him past 10 yards and he's going to go get it. 80 % of his catches go for first down, which is there are only a handful of other players in the league where that is true of and also have 50 targets. So doing it on that kind of volume, it's Roma Dunze, Alec Pierce, George Pickens, Devonta Adams, like other Pro Bowl caliber type of receivers.

24:38So the fact that he's doing that. Alec Pierce, Pro Bowl caliber receiver. I don't disagree with that. I don't disagree with that. It's just funny that we've gotten to that point. I know. And then I was actually talking to Bryce Rossler of Sports Info Solutions, and their database goes back to 2015. And there have been 289 qualifying 1 ,000 yard receivers since then. And Ted Arroa and McMillan is on pace to do that. his on-target rate for catchable passes, like balls that are on where they should be and are in his range, he ranks 287th out of 289 players. He's not getting catchable passes and he is still producing like this.

25:12I really think he's incredible. Dad, when you filter it for the quarterback quality, I actually think that makes it a much more intriguing choice. I'm not going to say, like, you know, Justin Jefferson is in the news a lot this week because of his body language and his reaction to some of the stuff that was going on in the Ravens game. It wasn't that bad in the Carolina game against the Saints, but you watch that back, you can see some like, oh my God, in Terrell McMillan's game, which I do not blame him for whatsoever. But he's so smooth to just keep the basketball thing going. He moves effortlessly.

25:48He never looks like he's working that hard to do things that are actually really hard. So I like that because you're, yeah, like the numbers statistically don't. He's only got two touchdowns, which like. They don't back it up. But I mean, if like you, you are thrilled with that pick. If you're a Carolina or a Panthers fan. Yeah, I don't have any issue with that whatsoever. I think that's actually a really good pick. And I think a lot of the reasoning backs it up very well. Who is your pick for offensive rookie of the year? Tyler Warren. And you know what? I have the same one. The stats, the stats back it up.

26:20But I don't think I would love Tyler Warren as much as I do. if not for a bunch of stuff that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. Like, he is such a big element of everything that they're doing. I mean, for starters, they use him everywhere. Like, he's in line half the time. Obviously, he's a tight end, but they play him in the slot 30 % of the time. They move him out wide 10 % of the time. He's in the backfield. I brought this up on the recap show. Like, to get that game in Berlin over the finish line, And they were like, you're going to lead block all the way home, buddy. And he can do that. He's played wildcat quarterback.

26:57He is a crucial element of the of the running game. I think JT's been plenty successful without him, but I think he is a meaningful piece of why that run game is so good. Like he is a plus blocker for being a rookie tight end. There are other tight ends before this year were not that caliber of blocker. Like he's he's been really good. I love the way he blocks in space. Like you like you can tell a guy's a great athlete by how comfortable they look blocking in space. And then he's just got a great statistical resume catching the football. He's actually got similar yards per route run to Emeka Ibuka.

27:28It's like 2.2 versus 2.3. Similar target share. And then he's third among all rookies in receiving yards. He only trails Tadaroa by one yard. So he's right there with him. And he leads all tight ends in the league. He leads them all in receiving yards. So statistically, as well as the impact that he's having, and I've said it before on this show, but just the vision the Colts had for what he would be and how perfectly it's all been executed is, it's just awesome. He's gotten a lot of like layup targets within the offense and I think some people might construe that as like a ding against his case.

28:05I actually think that it speaks to how much they want to build the offense through him. That's who you want to get the ball to. Let's give them the easy ones. The fact that there are so many of those, like let's just dump him the ball into the flats and let him go to work. Like those are easy completions. And I think those are like kind of simple plays. But at the same time, like they're trying to build so much of that offense through his skill set that I don't discredit how much of that has played into his production. Because for me, like, why is that any different than like how the Rams treat Puka Nakua?

28:34Like they do so much shit like that with him. I think that's a great point, yes. If we're mad about the level of difficulty of getting our best players the ball, I think we're losing the plot a little bit. Volume in a majority of cases is a skill. Like it is the offense is telling you that like that's who they want to have the football and like, okay It would be one thing if he was like this stiff guy who can't do anything more than three yards down the field But that's not true. Like he made a spectacular catch for and whatever that was three four days ago to move the Colts into range to win that game.

29:05So He is he is more than that even if it makes sense to give him a lot of easy targets The other guys I would throw out. I think a mecca bucca has a case Just had like before last week when he had six catches for 115 yards against the Patriots had like a quiet three week stretch, you know, against the Niners. He had 24 yards against the Saints. He had 35 yards. And so I think that by the end of the season, he will absolutely be in the conversation. But right now it's probably cooled off a little bit. And I just don't think Jackson Dart has played enough games. Like he just didn't play the first few games of the year.

29:35He missed a half of the Bears game. And so, again, by the end of the year, if he continues playing this way, I'm happy to have the Jackson Dart conversation. I've said it multiple times this week on both the recap show and the hangover show that we did. I thought that his play against the Bears from the pocket and as a passer was the most impressive game that he has had or most impressive couple quarters he has had so far this year. And so I'm very impressed, very encouraged by that. But I just don't think he's played enough. I'll say this for you so you don't have to be the one that says it. The light clicked on a little late for Colston Loveland to be here in this conversation right now.

30:09but if it stays on the way it has the last two or three weeks, then that is a conversation we can have in January. Quite a good football player. Yeah, he's very good. If we're just doing like the eye test rookie of the year, he's, again, we'll see over the next eight weeks, but like he's really, really good. The hands are wild. He's awesome. Like the hands are wild. But for me, I just keep coming back to everything that they're doing with him as a blocker. And I've had faith in what that would look like coming in because when you watch what he was at Michigan as an inline blocker, He was not just like a glorified wide receiver.

30:40He's a willing inline blocker. The frame allows him to do a lot of work there. And so the inline blocking reps that we see from him, and then you combine that with the blocking he does on the move. Like when he's getting out onto the perimeter, his ability to find guys as a blocker in space is incredibly impressive. And so what we have seen from him over the last two or three weeks is about as good as you could possibly hope for from a rookie tight end. I've seen, there's a lot of discussion on draft Twitter between like Colts and Bears fans about Warren and Loveland. I'm all set by the way. The answer is you have one.

31:13Yeah. I'm just like, yeah, they both look pretty good to me. That's fun. Yeah. Not for a second. Even like these things don't get decided halfway through a first season or a month into a first season. So even when Tyler Warren was doing all this and Colts and Loveland wasn't producing because he was banged up or whatever, there was no part of me that was like, oh man, what a f*** up by the Bears not taking Tyler Warren. And now that we're halfway through the year, I'm feeling just fine about the Colson Lovell and Tyler Warren situation. All right, let's get to defensive rookie of the year. So here is my case about why I think overall, this is just a pretty underwhelming award this year.

31:51I just don't think there are many guys to choose from. Do you know how many defensive rookies this season have played at least 50 % of their team's defensive snaps? that's a good question I didn't think about it that way half a dozen it's 20 20 I undershotted that's it but like how many of those are first rounders even I'm sure you don't have that I was thinking like I can do it for you I can do it for you right now okay 1 2 3 4 5 5 it's gonna be like what Carter, Campbell Malachi Starks Jihad Campbell Mason Graham Mikel Williams, who's hurt now. I was going to say Mikel Williams is lost for the year.

32:34That's it. Those are the five. And so it really just is kind of an underwhelming group. The fact that there are 20 of them total, I think says a lot about just the overall impact of this defensive class. I just wanted to put it out for context because I was trying to figure out why I wasn't that excited about this discussion. I think that's part of it. I would have agreed with you. And I think part of it too. And again, these awards are so narrative driven. A lot of the best rookies play for kind of sorry teams. Like it just isn't what it is. This is, you know, Abdul Carter's on a two and whatever it is, two and eight Giants team.

33:04And the Falcons rookies are the Falcons keep losing games. Mikael Williams just went down. But I was with you. And then I started diving in on this topic and I actually looked at Carson Swessinger and I was like, oh, you know, he it sucks. Like he's such a good player, but he sprained his ankle and he's he's hurt now or whatever. And full disclosure, I did not watch much of the Browns Jets game live. Sue me. I'm sorry. I didn't do it. Well, so I went back. I went back and I was like, wait, he played. Wait, he played all of the snaps. Wait, he played all of the snaps and had 10 tackles, half a sack, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits on a on a high ankle sprain.

33:48Holy shit. And so combine that with the fact that this guy, he's played 95 % of the snaps for the Browns, which is no small feat considering how good of a defense this is. He has 16 run stops on the year. That puts him in the top 20. He leads all rookies. He's got six tackles for loss, which is not like a crazy number, but it's top 10 among all off-ball linebackers. He wears the green dot for the Cleveland Browns. and so it's not super exciting because the Browns are not a team that you're rushing to turn on on a Sunday afternoon but he rocks and like and he's been doing it all year by the way like over the first six seven weeks he I like he would have been an easy choice for an award like this and then like I said he sprained his ankle and I was like ah tough for Carson Swessinger we're not going to see him for a month and then they went on their bye and he came back and was like screw that I'm going to be everywhere.

34:42I'm going to make Justin Fields' life a living hell. And so I think Abdul Carter is worth mentioning too. Like he leads all rookies and pressures. I think that's the obvious place to go. He's like top five and quick pressures too, which is like among all players, period, per next gen. So it's, it's the pressures that he's getting have been very impressive pressures for me. Like, no, like watching him come back and have 10 tackles. And it was obvious that the ankle was bothering him. Like he didn't look as explosive as he did earlier in the year. that kind of sealed it for me where I was like, all right, the Browns might not be an exciting team, but this guy doing this as a non first round pick, he's, he's my defensive rookie of the year.

35:19He's also mine. And it was not really that close for me. Like Abdul Carter is great, but I also think like making the case for a defensive rookie of the year who just doesn't have the sack numbers Carter doesn't, I know the pressure numbers are good and he will regress. Like he will probably end the year with like six sacks by the time some of that comes back. But Suesinger to me, he's a really, really good player, man. He truly does everything for a linebacker you mentioned he wears the green dot he's already a good coverage player like his play like numbers to numbers like knowing how to squeeze routes it's not as good as like the the Roquan Smiths or Fred Warners and stuff yet but I think he's handled himself really well on that front whenever he's got to play downhill um against the past I think he's done incredible just like killing stuff in the flats making sure he's tackling checkdowns he's been incredible and then what's really impressed me the most is that some of that stuff you could have seen coming out of college like his sideline to sideline range is great he was good in coverage but I was worried like he's a little light and doesn't always hit people in college this year for a player of his archetype where speed is kind of his game he actually does take on blocks really well I think he plays downhill really fast and he takes back space for the defense so I think him having all that and then he does have like a decent statistical case next gen stats has tackles that are counted as stops which are like negative offensive uh EPA plays for for the offense he has 43 of those tackles which is ninth in the NFL right now like he's everywhere all the time he's their green dot guy he's a good coverage player like he just he truly checks every box for like a future probable linebacker i have no issue with this whatsoever i think that i probably picked abdul carter mostly out of like as a default because again he's third and quick pressures in the nfl the sacks have not been there but brian brains is stealing them all yeah he's been a consistently disruptive player but i'm more than okay with carlson swestinger if abdul carter wins this at the end of the year i won't be surprised and i won't have an issue with it And yeah, like there's, there's no way he ends the year on one sack.

37:05I appreciate you guys highlighting the fact that Carson Swessinger has been as good as he's been as like a full-time player though. And the other guy I would throw out just because he has been pretty much a starter since day one. And I think he's acquitted himself very well. John Campbell has been good for the Eagles defense. Like he is 100 % worth mentioning here. Yeah. But I think Swessinger probably deserves it if we're looking at the totality of the case. So I do not disagree with you guys. All right. Protector of the year is a new one. obviously first year we're doing this so essentially offensive lineman of the year in the NFL I we did this with Nate last week I have like seven names that you can probably mention but Derek let's start with you who is your protector of the year halfway through the 2025 season I'm gonna start with my runner-up because I really did want to make this guy the winner but I'm not gonna do it I really think the year Damian Lewis is having is like he's not my pick he's not my I love this though I do love that because it's just a natural tendency to gravitate toward tackles right yeah But he's just every time I turn on offensive lines and there are some other good guards.

38:04But when I just think of like which offensive lineman is truly moving people the out of the way. He's been awesome. It's Damian Lewis. Like he's and he's been better in pass pro this year than I think he has in most seasons. Like that was my issue with him. He's a baller, but like he had some moments in pass protection. I have really loved watching Damian Lewis play this year. It's just really come together for him. So I just wanted to throw him out there really quickly. But I did end up going with what is probably like one of the fairly default answers in Panay Sewell. Like I think he's just been incredible again.

38:30He has the, according to Sports Info Solutions, the fifth lowest blown block rate and pass pro among tackles, eighth lowest in run blocking. And then you just see the way they consistently weaponize him in the run game. Like he is year in, year out, one or two of the best tackles in the league. And I think this year he's been awesome again. I also picked Penn Isul and I had Lane Johnson last week. Lane Johnson to me, and I said this, but we'll rehash the conversation here. he feels like the Miles Garrett of offensive linemen to me in a way. Like when you watch Lane Johnson, it's like that's the best guy.

39:03Like in pass protection specifically, there is no one who does it like Lane Johnson. There is no one who makes it look as easy as Lane Johnson. A lot of the numbers are backed up. Before last week, he had given up one quick quarterback pressure on the season. And when you watch him in pass protection, there truly is like nobody like him. And so that was my pick before last week. And then he gets hurt last week. he misses a good majority of that game. And I think that's enough to like open up and kind of revisit the discussion. And so that's why I'm giving it to Penesul. Like Penesul has per NextGen, the lowest one-on-one quick quarterback pressure rate allowed in the NFL.

39:40And he's probably the best run blocker in the NFL this season. That's like, that's enough. Like that combination of two things. So the fact that Lane missed most of last week, that was enough to open the door for me to give it to Penesul. Chocker of shockers. we're talking about Panay Sewell and Lane Johnson in this award category. I mean, those two guys deserve mention. I think, like, Robert, you've mentioned this before, and I think it's fair. Again, if we're talking about narrative, like everything Lane Johnson has done over the last decade or so. I think we said this in the preview episode, like doing the preseason awards.

40:15Lane Johnson or Trent Williams felt like the easy, easy answer to this for like the first time we're doing this award. Lane Johnson that would be you know if I were going to bet on this that would be my runaway favorite to win the actual award if you guys have already mentioned those two I think I just want to mention Andrew Thomas Hughes oh yeah other guys we're going to mention he was the next one I think you could easily give it to Andrew Thomas I love it and we talk about this a lot with receivers there are so many good players and like if you take a step back if you get hurt or whatever the world just moves on and like you you don't matter anymore and it's been cool to see andrew thomas get healthy and get back into the giants lineup and rock you know like he pitched a shutout against the broncos he's a big part of why jackson dart has been successful really good in the run game too like when you watch him he's been really good in the run game you mentioned some of the numbers for lane johnson it's essentially andrew thomas and lane johnson are like the guys in the same exact stratosphere like if you look at some of the next gen pass blocking numbers Andrew Thomas has the highest time to pressure rate among any offensive tackle in the league.

41:18It's 4.24 seconds. Him and Lane are the only ones over four seconds. Like Lane Johnson, one quick pressure allowed this year by Andrew Thomas. He's been, I think, maybe the best left tackle in the league when you combine the run game and the pass. I think Garrett Bowles... And availability. And availability. Garrett Bowles has been really good this year in pass protection. I think he's worth mentioning as well. Those are probably the guys I would throw out there. Quentin Nelson is having a really good season. I think that's worth mentioning as well. I'll be honest, I didn't think that hard about interior linemen because it just tackles.

41:47They're not going to have favorites. I think we should acknowledge the play we've seen from some of the interior guests. I went in trying to find, at least knowing that an interior player is not going to win it, I still went in trying to find, okay, if I had to pick a center or a guard, who would it be? And so I came down to for two centers. I was like, Creed Humphrey and Zach Frazier are having pretty special seasons, and so they're not going to win it, but I wanted to give them their flowers. Yeah, I think Creed Humphrey is absolutely worth mentioning, But I think Andrew Thomas to me right now is it's like a one a one B with Sewell again, just because Lane Johnson missed like a majority of that game last week.

42:18That's enough because I think it's that close right now. I made this point on this show before I joined it, but it's all the more reason to college football this thing up and give an award for every position. Like the NFL wants NFL honors to be a big thing anyway. It's like this big award show with a celebrity host. And then we only hand out like six awards. It's like, I could help you get to like 30 if you wanted to. And we could have this thing take all night. Like, why isn't there an NFL Remington trophy for the best center or best interior offensive lineman or whatever? Best tackle, best linebacker.

42:50We should do it for everybody. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back with our last four words.

43:00Coach of the year. This is a fun one this year. I think there is a really good group of candidates. I had two that I was picking between. and we can dig into it. Dave, why don't you kick us off? Who is your coach of the year halfway through the 2025 season? I wasn't really that conflicted about this. There are a lot of good candidates, but I didn't think that hard about it. You know, Shane Steichen is going to be an obvious name. Mike Vrabel, Dan Campbell changing over coordinators and the Lions not missing a beat. I don't know, who am I forgetting? They've missed a beat. They've fired the offensive coordinator.

43:33Okay, well, that's a great point. now dan campbell's a great play caller even more reason to name him coach of the year uh mike mcdonald sean mcveigh the point i'm about to make is who if you're it's not any of those guys who's your pick you want to know point my point shane steichen great colts have been very very healthy mike vrabel great drake may is playing like an mvp san francisco 49ers are six and four Brock Purdy has played in two out of 10 games. I thought you had mentioned him. That's why I was confused. This is a totally reasonable choice. He has been healthy for one. I thought I really threw you off.

44:11Brock Purdy has been healthy for one game, really, because the Jags game, he was not right. Ricky Pearsall was playing 82 % of their snaps. He was a starter every game for the first week of the season, averaging 80 yards per game. We haven't seen him since week four. Juwan Jennings has been in and out of the lineup. He's missed two games. Brandon Ayuk is still on IR. Nick Bosa has played 18 % of this team's snaps on the year. He's been gone since week three. Fred Warner, 55 % of the snaps on the year so far. He's been gone since week six. Mikkel Williams tore his ACL in week nine. Malik Mustafa started the year on PUP, didn't come back till week six.

44:45Even role players that do nice things like Yitur Grossmatos and Bryce Huff have missed multiple games with injury. The 49ers are ninth, or excuse me, seventh in offensive DVOA, third in offensive success rate. Mac Jones has won more games as their starting quarterback than he did in the last two years combined. And the San Francisco 49ers have an 80 % chance to make the playoffs. There are a lot of good choices for this. Who's doing more with less than Kyle Shanahan right now? I'm totally fine with this. This is good. I didn't even consider him, but this is like if you're not really. I think right now, I think they're, to me, my choices came down to Steichen or McDonald's.

45:28For reasons that we'll dig into. But I think the Kyle Shanahan right now is clearly number three. And like Rabel comes in just behind Shanahan. If I were like tearing them up. Every single coach that is up for this award is like choosing between the four seam fastball or like, do I want to go to the slurve? Or is this like, are we doing an off speed? Are you left-handed? Yeah, I am actually. This is the first time I've noticed that. He's like pantomiming pitches with his left hand. Kyle Shanahan's just out here like trying to rub whatever he can off the brim of his hat and just get this thing over the plate.

46:00And he's throwing he's not throwing a shutout, but he's throwing a great game. Like he is so handicapped by what he doesn't have. And it hasn't always been pretty. But the fact that it's not a lost cause is very, very impressive. So I think this is probably an indictment of me more than it says anything about Kyle Shanahan. I think I'm just like, unless the results are insane, just like not bored of Shanahan, but like he does this. I don't know. We do that too often. We do. We do. We just ignore the guys who we know are good coaches. It's a me issue. That's fair. And I do the same thing as well.

46:36I will also say I don't think the general public just takes it for granted that Kyle Shanahan is a good NFL coach. I think there are a lot of people who think he's like a choker and he's overrated. I think there are plenty of Niners fans that want him kicked out the door. Like, I do think it's important to kind of reset and acknowledge the fact that Kyle Shanahan is a very good NFL football coach. And this year is one of the best representations of that that we've ever gotten. I hate that it takes a situation like this to make people take note of what he does. Because, yeah, like Kyle Shanahan should win coach of the year when they have, you know, when they look like the Avengers and they win whatever it was.

47:17and they're on the cusp of winning the Super Bowl. But that's not the way this award usually works. And so I've said this already on the show, but I think it's funny that he would finally win this award with one of his worst teams of his Niners tenure. But the fact that we're not just like giving them the Bengals treatment, like, ah, what are you going to do? But you're irrelevant is amazing. The seventh in offensive D.U.A. thing is crazy because they finished top 10 last year, and they were banged up for a huge chunk of last year, but at least Brock was healthy. The fact that now you have a backup quarterback.

47:52How many teams could lose? Their quarterback gets hurt in week one. And I know he came back for the Jags game, but it's been since week one that they've been dealing with this. How many teams would we even be still talking about, let alone they have an 80 % chance to make the playoffs? And we don't, Pearsall's been out for however long. Kittle missed some time. I didn't even mention in my notes that Kittle missed five games. And like, yes, they've been, it's unbelievable. He's building the whole thing out of Christian McCaffrey. Colby and Dominic Pune and Jake Tonjes. The fact that he has been able to do this this year is pretty well.

48:27I will say the schedule is horrendous, right? Like they have had a very bad schedule, but that Rams win and just everything that they've done and the overall quality compared to what he is working with 100 % has to be acknowledged. Who is your pick? I went with kind of what Dave was saying, kind of probably like the easiest answer. I went with Shane Steichen. I think that's a good answer. That's completely fine. So for me, I think that was partly like I gave him the coin flip because of the narrative of like, the fact that he's doing this with Daniel Jones is kind of crazy. And I also do want to give him - The fact that he's a play caller plays into this.

49:00And I want to give him some credit too for like going out and hiring Lou Anarumo and the defense has been better. Like I think that he is my pick for a lot of those reasons. I barely gave him the edge over Mike McDonald because I do think what McDonald is doing with that defense is really, really special. And obviously they've done a lot of other parts, him hiring Kubiak and stuff, but I ultimately still gave it to Shane Steichen. I think the Shane Steichen, Mike McDonald cases, there are a ton of parallels between them, right? You have one guy who oversees his side of the ball and is the play caller for that side of the ball.

49:29And the Colts have the best offense in the NFL by most advanced metrics. The Seahawks have one of, if not the best defenses in the NFL, according to most advanced metrics. They are currently third in weighted defensive DVOA. They were second last week. And so by the end of the season, they're going to be in a conversation like it's them, the Broncos and the Texans are all kind of grouped up at the top. I think there's going to be a lot of switching around. The Seahawks have been, if not the best defense in the league, then certainly one of them so far this season. And they've been banged up. They've been guys coming in and on in a lineup.

49:59We got second and third string DBs all over the place. You barely even notice because of what he is doing. Jones is now hurt. Yeah. Yeah, the fact that like last week we're talking about Okada and whoever that backup nickel was and Tyrese Knight. I mean, that's what Mike McDonald has done with that group this year is remarkable. And I think him and Steichen deserve a lot of credit for identifying the right guy to oversee the other side of the ball. I went with Steichen last week because I do think that he's just on a crazy, crazy heater as an offensive play caller. And that should play into this.

50:32Like if you're the head coach and you're also the play caller, the quality of what you're doing in that role matters. If I'm picking this award, it's been the last couple of weeks have been a little bit shakier than, you know, up to that point. And I think McDonald has arguably been better over the last couple of weeks than he's been at any point in the season. Like they're trending all the way up. And I'll say this. I think should this play into it? Maybe not. The fact that the coordinator Mike picked has been overseeing a top five offense with Sam Darnold and question marks personnel wise. And this is probably just understanding the situation a little bit, but I think Mike's understanding of what he wanted from his offense and how consciously he sought that out and the results that have come along with that.

51:19when you combine that with the quality of the defense and the overall success of the team that to me is like just enough to give it to him like it's not just the fact that he picked the offensive coordinator it's that he picked the offensive coordinator for a very specific reason because it played stylistically into what he wanted his offense to be and that has been a top five offense that that plays into it for me it's funny to see how that stuff changes as the season goes because like the Colts raced out to this fast start and they haven't fallen off like they're still the top offense in the league I think they'll be fine in the long run but like the Seahawks from like a perception standpoint have gained so much ground here over the last like month or so I can't wait to see you know what that looks like when we get to the holidays all right let's get to our next one here assistant coach of the year Derek why don't you kick us off who's your assistant coach of the year halfway through 2025.

52:14I mean, we just brought him up. It's Clint Kubiak. Like it's, it's, it's, it's kind of hard to pick someone else. I'm going to, I did have another option that I wanted to highlight, but like when you are running a top five offense with Sam Darnold, a not very good offensive line and really only one difference making pass catcher. That's a pretty insane job that they're doing. It's pretty wild. And like, we've, we've talked about it all year. And I think the first time I really noticed it and really was like, holy shit, this thing as cool as the Arizona Thursday night game. Yes, and we both said it in the moment.

52:45The play calling, and I think that there is an important, and I could easily give it to Clint Kulbiak. I did it last week. I'm partially picking somebody different just to keep myself entertained. But when you, to me, there are two different, the buckets of offensive architecture and play calling are different things, right? And so when you look at the offensive architecture for the Seahawks so far this season, they have done a fantastic job of dictating how the game is going to go on their terms. It's phenomenal. But then the play calling and the situational choices and how everything is tied together, that's also excellent.

53:19So when you have both of those things happening in tandem, you get one of those offenses where we're all collectively sitting here being like, how are they doing this? And that's what the Seahawks feel like right now. Which Clint Kubiak was my choice just for the record, and I didn't think all that hard about it. I'm with you. But what I love about this, and it's just like mea culpa on my part, is Clint Kubiak was doing this for the first month last year. And then everyone died on this. And of course, we'll never know how much the Saints would have sustained that. But they got so beat to shit that all of that groundswell of Clint Kubiak talk, it bubbled up for three weeks and then just evaporated.

54:02But the guy didn't forget how to do his job. And so I probably, I didn't pay that enough credence in the offseason. And I felt better after the Seahawks drafted Gray's Abel. And I was like, OK, like if you're adding that in there and like Cross and Lucas have been good when they're healthy and and Jason's a good player. But I completely ignored the fact that I had similar concerns about the Saints heading into last year. And they were awesome when they were totally healthy. And I still think it's hard to know exactly what to make of that Saints run. I they were playing such as it was really those first two games.

54:35right and those first two games they were playing a more specific brand of nfl offense than i can ever remember over like a two-game stretch it was literally like half of their plays were under center play action over the those two games derrick harthrew like like 15 non-play action passes in those two games they played woeful teams like the you know week one against the panthers i think week two was against dallas i get that but i think i think they would have been if not amazing at least successful. The point, like, I should have trusted more that Clint Kubiak knew what he was doing going into this.

55:09I guess what I'm saying is you shouldn't be beating yourself up over this. I don't think other people knew what to make of that. Anybody could have hired Clint Kubiak to be their offensive coordinator this year. Anybody. And it's not as though he was, like, the slam dunk choice in Seattle. They interviewed, like, five or six people, and I think they ruminated on the decision. So, like, the fact that you didn't miss anything because it's not as if it was, like, out there in plain sight for everyone to fully comprehend. That's kind of what I'm saying. It sure as hell looks like it right now. It sure as hell does.

55:39So I think he's easily like 1A, 1B. I picked him last week. I love so much stuff about what he has done this year. A couple other names that I think are worth throwing out. I think Josh McDaniels has been awesome. I think Josh McDaniels has been so good. And just how clean and put together and sound the entire offense feels in New England. I've really enjoyed watching in a way that I didn't necessarily expect. I think Kelvin Shepard has been awesome in Detroit like I'm really excited that's one of our games of the week this week and I'm very excited to talk about that Lions defense because we really haven't had a chance to do it in a while the layers they've added to it this year with him as the defensive play caller I've really enjoyed the work that he has done they've fallen off a little bit just in terms of overall perception just because the team isn't very good the fact that the Atlanta Falcons are second in the NFL this year in past defense TV away with who are like any general NFL fan couldn't name you five players in the Falcons defense.

56:35And the fact that Jeff Ulbrich is doing this, I think is really impressive and he deserves mention here. So those are the three, the other names I'd probably throw out my actual winner. That's not Clint Kubiak is Chris Shula. Like what the Rams defense is doing. I just find it fascinating. like we talked a lot about it last week like the ways that they are I think Greg Olson has started to kind of beat the drum on this and I think that this is and I think we've alluded to it in various different forms a lot on this show this year I think one of the next things about defensive football will be teams that don't allow offensive personnel to define how they're going to play defense it's actually one of the reasons I think that Mike McDonald has been so good as a defensive coach and that defense is so good the seahawks just play nickel to everything it's why nick i'm and waria is so valuable even if like the actual reps of him in coverage aren't always great like the idea of you're not going to tell us what to do is very impressive and the rams are kind of like that but almost to like an entirely different level like if on second and seven they're like we're playing our dying defense like this is just what we do and so i think that how extreme some of the ideas have been from shula and the way that he's been able to get the most not only out of that front, the front is talented.

57:51They're all the best versions of themselves because the way that they're used within that defense and the fact that this is a top five-ish unit, top seven at least, with the talent that they have on the back end, I think says a lot about the quality of coaching that has gone into that group. I think that's a really good way to frame it because I don't, kind of to the point of the Falcons thing, I don't think a lot of people could name a Rams DB. I mean, it's Emmanuel Forbes. Yeah, it's like starting outside corners. who like purely as like a flat player, he's actually okay. Everything else is not great.

58:21But like the fact that they are doing that with that secondary right now is cool. And they do have good players in the secondary. It's just like not stars. It's like Quentin Lake being your big, like kind of a safety, kind of a linebacker, kind of a nickel guy. And then their corners are not that great. And they kind of have to hide them in the coverage. But what they're able to do in terms of getting teams in the down and distances they want. And that I think is like Shula, I don't know how much he has the decision to like sign guys, but them having the foresight of like we need to get a Puna Ford so that we can get into second and eight, like I think that that's pretty good.

58:50And like they, I think he's been impressive in that front. The only other defensive guy I had in mind, and I know the defense is just like crazy talented, Vance Joseph and the Denver Broncos defense is like, they're insane. He's a victim of where you discredit a guy who's like, well, yeah, look at everything that he's got. It doesn't mean he's not doing a good job. Yeah, everyone knows the names of the players on the team. The Patrick Sertans, the Nick Benito at this point, like Zach Allen, a lot of people probably know. they signed Talanoa Hufanga but I even think watching like Hufanga's growth in the defense to me is it's kind of impressive on Vance Joseph's part like the first month of the season Hufanga was like kind of iffy and a little bit trying to find his ground over the past five weeks I think he's been like an all-pro level safety this is a topic for a draft episode not right now but I'm really interested in the idea of teams trying to like adapt to that idea of like not shaking out of your smaller personnel.

59:43And I feel like it's way easier said than done. Like you got to find those guys. You got to find, if you don't have the right nickel, you can't do it. That's what I'm saying. That's why like the Kyle Hamilsons of the world are more valuable than they've ever been. I'm fascinated by that idea and I'm curious to see how teams do it and how successfully, like I'm just imagining teams trying to do that and just not getting the right guy. It's called the Bills. Yeah. Yeah. I feel like we're going to get a lot of like, you remember in like 2015, we were getting a lot of really bad long corners. because people saw the Legion of Boom.

1:00:13We're going to get a lot of bad, like, 6-3 Nichols because of these teams. Yeah, exactly. Like, oh, look, this guy's amazing. Look, he can be our hybrid guy, and he's just not as good as some of these successful guys. A few other defensive coordinators that I think, just to acknowledge them as part of this, the fact that Patrick Graham has the Raiders defense with the talents on the Raiders defense playing at, like, a top-ten-ish, borderline top-ten level is insane. He is the NFL's MacGyver. You give him anything, and you'll have, like, the 12th best defense in the league. That's crazy. There are like four above average players in the Raiders defense.

1:00:43So I think he deserves mention here. I really like, again, what Nick Rolos is doing in Arizona. And I think as that defense has gotten healthy in the back half of the season, we will acknowledge and be able to see what they're going to do for the final nine weeks. The last guy that I'll throw out, similar thing. Now that they're healthier again, I think he will reenter the discussion. We'll be having some talks about Jesse Minter by the end of this year. By December 25th, by Christmas, we will be having the where does Jesse Minter go conversations because I think the Chargers defense will yet again be one of those how are they doing this sort of groups.

1:01:17Two more here. We don't have to spend a ton of time on this one. Executive of the year. What'd you guys have for this, Dave? I'm really proud of myself because I've been really critical of this guy at times over the years and maybe I will be again based on what he did at the trade deadline. But I think Chris Ballard has done, he has been right about a lot of things heading into this year. And like, if we're at the halfway point of the season, the Colts, if they're not the best team in the league, they're at least the most surprising success story. And you can tie all of it back to correct decisions that they made during the course of this offseason.

1:01:53I mean, Daniel Jones is their quarterback. Again, you talk about Clint Kubiak, like nobody was dying for Daniel Jones to be in their building. The Vikings let him walk out the door. And we've talked about it on this show before. They let Will Fries and Ryan Kelly walk out the door. And on this show, we were like, is that a great idea? Like, maybe you should care more about that. And no, they were absolutely right. Mack and Casalvas and Tanner Bordellini have been great. They shored up their secondary. They signed Traverius Ward and Cam Bynum. They are sixth in pass EPA and 14th in success rate versus the pass.

1:02:26It's not incredible, but last year they were 23rd and 20th in those respective categories. Like they knew they just needed to get overall better. And they did that. And also we mentioned Lou Anarumo already, but, and then maybe Shane Steichen obviously has a hand in that as well, but like identifying, even if it's an obvious defensive coordinator to identify going and getting anybody could hire him. Anybody could hire him. Exactly. Tyler Warren is my offensive rookie of the year. Well, Chris Ballard had a hand or guided that draft process. The rest of their class isn't really doing all that much, but if Tyler Warren's the headliner, I think that's a okay.

1:03:02So just half a dozen, you know, coin flip sorts of decisions and they hit on all of them. The reason I was joking at the beginning is I'm not convinced. I love the sauce Gardner thing, but that is not this team's problem because you get sauce for eight more games and the playoffs. And if, if it turns out in the long run that that wasn't a good idea, that'll be for executive of the year, like 2028. eight. Like we don't have to do that right now. So right now I think Chris Ballard has done a lot of good stuff. If I was making a short list, he absolutely would be on it. Yeah. Who was your answer?

1:03:38He also would be on my, which I have also been very critical of Chris Ballard for a long time. So the fact that he got there for me is pretty impressive. My tongue in cheek answer is Mike Rabel. Like I think that, like, I think he had a lot of control over that roster. I think they've actually done a lot of it. I don't think that's an acceptable answer. It's not an acceptable answer like but it's like kind of my answer my real answer is probably just like john schneider and i know that a lot of the decisions that the seahawks have made are probably reflect as equally on like mike mcdonald um again hiring the offensive coordinator like drafting nick him and warren having a plan for him that's also probably mostly a mike mcdonald thing but i do think a lot of the other picks and decisions they've made doing what they did to completely overhaul the offense i was insanely critical of that with the quarterback decision and you know like is gray zabel really going to be an immediate impact player for you just like all these other stuff and like pretty much every bet they made on that side of the ball has been correct yeah i john shiner is also my just my choice as well because i think that the decision to trade away dk metcalf and now you have the best passing offense in the league like that that part of it i always supported like i was in favor of the dk metcalf trade i was i had questions about the quarterback switch out i liked everything they did changing out the component parts of the offense i had questions about the quarterback and the fact that they've upgraded a quarterback while getting a third round pick as part of that process, I think says a lot about the quality of that plan.

1:04:56And here's why I'm more inclined to give it to the Seahawks than to Chris Ballard for the quarterback thing specifically. Dan Jones is a free agent. The Seattle Seahawks have Sam Darnold on a three year,$100 million deal in a world where we have all these guys making 50,$55 million a year, a quarterback. And Sam Darnold has been better than the vast majority of them, that's an incredibly valuable contract to have. That's the new edge. I think we've talked about it on the show before, but Sam Darnold at$33 million a year when Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence and all of these guys are making 50, 55, that's a huge, huge advantage.

1:05:36Sam Darnold has a 34, he's on$13.4 million cap at this year. It's 33.4, 33.9 next year. And we're going to talk about MVP in a second. He's in the conversation to have been like the best quarterback in the NFL so far this season. So you combine that with the shrewdness of some of the other moves. And then you look at the draft class. Obviously, Gray's Abel has been a day one starter for them, has been a defined positive. Emanwari and the way that they've been able to kind of help build their defense because they have a player like him, I think is worth mentioning. Elijah Arroyo in the second round, you've seen what he gives to this team that wants to use multiple tight ends all the time.

1:06:11Even like a Robbie Oots, right? You take a fullback and how that has kind of been able to reshape the way that you want to play offense. And so, so many things about the decisions from the draft to free agency to the quarterback that the Seahawks made this year, I'm inclined to give it to John Schneider. You know, I think you, I think that successfully sways me. And I mean, I'm very impressed by what Chris Ballard has done, but you have to go back and really think about what we were saying in March. And I've said it before. I liked Sam Darnold. It was less about Sam Darnold, but like Geno Smith was a really good quarterback for them.

1:06:45They never had a losing record with Geno Smith as the quarterback. And to huddle up and say, like, this has been good, but we think we can be better than that. And we think we can tap into a higher ceiling. That takes balls, man. And a longer runway. That was part of the argument. And any time I tried to play devil's advocate with Derek when we were talking about this decision, the thought always was, if you're paying them the same amount and you're getting a third round pick as part of this, and you're getting six or seven years younger at quarterback, like there are real benefits to this plan if it works out.

1:07:20And oh boy, has it worked out. And remember too, he had a wonderful season, but Sam Darnold was coming off back-to-back stinky games. Like that was the lingering impression coming out of last season of Sam Darnold. Not that many people were excited about the Sam Darnold contract when it got signed. And so to move off of a relatively successful quarterback and do all that stuff I mean the Seahawks caught a lot of hell for it and they look they look really really smart halfway through the year all right speaking of Sam Darnold let's get to the MVP discussion this is a fun one this is like one of the more fun MVP halfway through the year type conversations I can remember just because it's such an odd group of players and I think all of them have like legitimate cases and that's why it's fun let's all right let's I'm just gonna say why don't we talk about the guys who didn't get it but I don't know who you guys gave it to so who is your MVP Dave halfway through the season I hate that you're trying to start with me because I was going to do this whole bit because here's how here's how I came down I let's just let's just peel the curtain back we all we all work closely together I came into this assuming that we would talk a healthy bit about Drake May you know Derek is one of the chapter presidents of the fan club and he has been understandably incredible.

1:08:37Again, I'm a sicko, Robert. I know that you voted for him for MVP on the show you did with Nate last week. So I came in thinking we would talk about Drake May, and that is a perfectly justifiable choice. So I sat there and I was like, all right, if I'm not going to throw out Drake May, where else can I go with this for the sake of a segment? So I started watching Matthew Stafford, obviously. I mean, that's not shocking. He's thrown 20 touchdowns and no interceptions since week three. He's just on an unbelievable tear. He's on a pace. He's on pace for 4 ,500 yards and 47 touchdowns. Yeah, it's like an absurd pace right now.

1:09:13He's playing the best football of his career, which is saying a lot, considering all the stuff that he's done over the course of his long career. But here's the funny thing, guys. So I'm looking through it, and I've watched plenty of him. For my money, I just think he is... he's number one on the list of football players and quarterbacks that I just get giddy to watch. I don't have to spend a lot of time explaining that. He does the trick shots. He throws with the most insane anticipation that you can imagine. He is fearless. His highlight reel is more fun than pretty much anybody. But here's the kicker.

1:09:53So I started digging through it and I'm like, okay, passer rating, success rate, EPA per drop back, explosive play rate, big time throws, turnover worthy plays, ADOT, like all that shit you look at when you're looking at quarterbacks. Sam Darnold's better at him at pretty much all of it. Like statistically, Sam Darnold's got better numbers at all of it. And I mean, it's not, it's not far apart. It's like third versus fourth, first, first, third, first, first, second, second, second and first. you know Stafford's ahead of him in big time throws but Darnold's ahead of him in big time throw percentage like how frequently you're doing it so I was looking at it and I was like okay I don't know what to do here because the guy that I want to give MVP to technically doesn't have as good of a numerical case as Sam Darnold and so I basically just took the coward's way out and I was like all right my vote will go toward whoever wins the game on Sunday that's really funny that's where I landed.

1:10:52I totally forgot that we were doing this before them, like literally playing each other. Matthew Stafford is playing like an MVP. He's one of my favorite players in football. He would be a deserving winner. But I don't think you can tout Stafford without mentioning what Sam Darnold's been doing in Seattle. I think Sam Darnold has been incredible on a rate basis. And I think that it's not just some of the systematic stuff that's buttressing Sam Darnold's case. There is a lot of that, right? So Sam Darnold right now is 10th in the NFL in dropbacks against base defense, total dropbacks. Overall, he is 26th in the NFL in dropbacks total.

1:11:31He has fewer dropbacks than Jackson Dart, Spencer Rattler, CJ Stroud, who just missed a game. He has 16 more dropbacks than Justin Fields. He has 24 more dropbacks than Jayden Daniels, who's missed how many games this year? Half of them. So that to me is the argument against Sam Darnold is that the volume and the situations in which he is throwing the ball have been so advantageous that it helps create some of the stuff that you're talking about. And here's the other very key distinction for me between Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford. That big time throw stuff is undeniable. What Sam Darnold has done on throws down the field is crazy.

1:12:12His EPA per dropback, I don't think I wrote it down, but his numbers on just 20 plus yard throws, it's stupid. It shouldn't exist. So here's, I think that the rate basis of how often those impressive throws are coming are higher for Sam Darnold. The numbers bear that out. To me, it's how many types of big time throws are happening. With Sam Darnold, it's like one or two types of big time throws. He's had a lot of downfield lasers that have been incredible. When I watch Matthew Stafford right now, and Matthew Stafford is my pick. I picked Drake May last week. I'm doing the coin flip thing for Matthew Stafford now.

1:12:47Now, it's the ways that those big-time throws are happening. I said this today when I went back and I was watching Matthew Stafford. I think right now, Matthew Stafford is playing quarterback in the pocket, from the pocket, as well as you can play the position. I don't think there's anything he's doing that is missing when it comes to just from that space. He doesn't scramble in the way that some of these other guys do. And so, like, totally PA. Drake May has more. Patrick Mahomes has more. Stafford is right there without scrambling, which is crazy in today's modern NFL. He is bottom five in pressure to sack rate.

1:13:22He is top five in big time throw rate. The other one to me, and so this is the number that I think is the one I really wanted to throw out there. And I think it is the most indicative of like where Matthew Stafford is right now. So the overall time to throw is affected by the fact that he's using tons and tons and tons of play action, right? So I filtered it for non-play action throws. On non-play action throws this year, Matthew Stafford has a time to throw of 2.52 seconds, which is the fourth lowest in the entire NFL. He is fifth in air yards per attempt on non-play action throws. It's almost impossible to play quarterback this way.

1:13:59And the only way that you can do it is by playing with just an absurd combination of aggressiveness and anticipation. When you watch Matthew Stafford right now, some of the corner outs that he's throwing, some of like the deep daggers and in breakers that he's throwing. When he is choosing to make these throws, they're impossible to defend. Like there's nothing you can do about it as a defense. Any single space on the field, even in pure drop back concepts, are available to Matthew Stafford at every single moment of the game. And that to me is what is separating him from all the other quarterbacks that we're seeing.

1:14:32It's just the accessibility to anything. The offense is as good and as varied and as diverse as it is, because Matthew Stafford can access anything you want him to do from the pocket in a way that very few quarterbacks have ever been able to do it. This is purely anecdotal and not a satisfying argument if you're trying to like lay out somebody's case, but just watching him, it feels like about as well as like anybody's played quarterback. And that I personally have watched. And like that includes some of Rodgers' best years, whoever you want to throw out there. Like it's just so impressive to watch.

1:15:07The fact that he is doing it with the limitation of being a like almost 40 year old man who has never really been like a super scrambler athlete. The fact that he like cannot move and is the best pure thrower in the NFL. Like we talk a lot about like, oh, does this guy have every club in his bag? This is the most I've ever seen a quarterback like truly has every club in the bag. The comparison I made today and I brought this up to Derek, the season that this most reminds me of is watching Brady in 21. where it's the combination of downfield throws and just getting rid of the ball instantaneously.

1:15:39And I think why that comparison is sort of illustrative to me is that very, very, very rarely do you get a guy who has seen this much football and is 37, 38 years old and still has this level of physical talent. And Brady, to me, is the other best example of that. And so when I watch Stafford right now, that's the only comparison that can come to mind is that one specific Brady season. And I think that's the level of quarterback play that we are talking about right now. It really is, which is surprisingly why he is actually my pick over Drake May. I really think this... I know, I know. I would have spent two hours doing Drake May shit if I had not missed.

1:16:16Listen, I'll talk about Drake May in a minute and I think he's obviously having a phenomenal season. I picked Drake May last week. Part of the reason I picked Matthew Stafford is just to do something different and not pick Drake May again. He will have his moments in this league. That's the other reason. I have no... There is something about the year that Matthew Stafford is having that like I think this is a cool celebration of all that he's done I 100 % we're not gonna cheapen what Matthew Stafford's doing by calling it a legacy award to me it's a highbreaker to me it's like if you go either way like this nudges it one direction yeah that's why I this is like Scorsese finally winning best picture for the departed which is like he is just playing better football than Drake May I I think that that the reason that that comparison is unfair is that the Departed is not the best Scorsese movie.

1:17:03That's what I'm saying. This is the best Matthew Stafford movie. That is a good point. That is a good point. And like, even if we want to look at some of the efficiency number, EPA per dropback, they're actually the same. They actually have, they both have 0.22 EPA per dropback, which is kind of funny. Stafford is second only to Darnold in DVOA, which accounts a little bit for like opponent that you're playing. And May is sixth, which is obviously still insane, again, for a second year player. And I think May, him having the scrambling element that Matthew Stafford doesn't, him, I think having some more answers against the blitz that unless the ball is out immediately, maybe Matthew Stafford wouldn't.

1:17:33I do think all of that is incredibly valuable. And obviously the Patriots are a worse team. So you can make the argument that he's like a load-bearing player. But I really do think that like what they can access the Rams as an offense is like he's really the only quarterback in the league probably right now who can do all the what he's doing. That's why it happens for me. Like if the total value because of what May gives you as a scrambler, obviously like the number, Drake May still leads the NFL in total EPA. Like he has been arguably as valuable as any player in the league. That's why I think he probably is like the 1B decision.

1:18:02But it just comes back to me where I think Matthew Stafford is playing the position as well as you can possibly play the position. You know what's crazy? Matthew Stafford's been one of my favorite players forever. And like I would love nothing more than to see him win an NFL MVP before he rides off. But what's funny is like, and like, you know, I think that colors the way I look at it. But if I'm just boiling this down, even if Matthew Stafford's playing better, I kind of think Drake May is more deserving for some of the stuff that y 'all are talking about. Like the Patriots are 20, I got to scroll a long way, 29th in defensive DVOA.

1:18:41And their running game has been bad. And so what they ask of Drake May within the offense, I think he is asked to do more for that offense than Matthew Stafford, arguably. Considering supporting cast, considering that Devontae Adams is going to Canton and Puka Nakua looks like he could be. And considering like the defenses and stuff, I think Drake May is unquestionably doing more for the overall team, even if Matthew Stafford is playing at a level that I've rarely seen in my career. I don't even know if I disagree with that, but part of the argument I would make too is like, in my mind, the Rams are the best team in football.

1:19:18And that is made true in part because of the way that Stafford is playing. And like the, like there is a, he does, he's not making bad plays. Like Stafford has usually had moments where like he makes some bad plays. That's the other guy. He's not f***ing up. Like he is on an unbelievable heater right now. I 100 % agree with that. One guy's been playing in the NFL since 2009 and the other guy's in year two of his career? But that shouldn't matter. It shouldn't matter, but I think it explains why one guy never f***s up and the other one maybe does. Well, Stafford used to do that all the time. And even last year, Stafford was good last year, but he was not...

1:19:55This is the best he's played. This is the best that he's ever played. There were moments last year when he was... And I think part of this is because the pass protection has been much better this year. Yes. If you look at pressure rates. Which it has to be for the way that he is. He's also getting rid of the ball quicker, but he has been pressured at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. That's been part of this. But Drake May, the sacks that Drake May has taken, Drake May still takes a lot of sacks. There are still more negative plays than you'd want overall. He offsets that by all the scrambling that he does.

1:20:18Like, if you wanted to give this to Drake May, I'm totally fine with that. I just think that after going back and thinking about it and watching Matthew Stafford and the fact that Drake May hasn't had his two best games in the last two weeks, to me, if it's a coin flip right now, I'm happy to give it to Stafford. It would bum me out if Stafford were to win this award mainly because of his status and where he is in his career. But he wouldn't. He's 4 ,500 yards and 47 touchdowns. You gotta let me finish, man. Like, he is playing that well that we're not just doing him a favor. That's what I'm saying.

1:20:49Yeah, he is absolutely, he would be deserving of MVP if he were to win this. And yeah, that's why I chose him. But weirdly, I think Drake May might be doing more for the Patriots, even if he's not playing just as purely good football as Matthew Stafford is. I think the way that I look at it is if Drake May was not the quarterback for the Patriots, they would be a bad offense, right? Like they would not be a good offense. If Jimmy Garoppolo is playing for the Rams, they would still be probably a good NFL offense, like an above average offense. but the level that they can reach because Matthew Stafford is the quarterback is just in a completely different conversation than whatever they would be able to do with Jimmy or any sort of replacement quarterback.

1:21:32Is there anybody besides these three that we're not talking about? I had one that I considered, but the statistical case is impossible, which is Justin Herbert. I think Herbert is like playing at the level of an MVP. It's just like he's being griefed by his team constantly. Yes, I think that you can make a very similar argument for Justin Herbert to what we're talking about with Drake May. When it comes to like, if without him, like this would be an unwatchable football team. They would be like a two-win team without the way that he's playing. The fact that Justin Herbert right now has a positive EPA per dropback and like a above average success rate as a quarterback in the NFL, given the current state of the pass protection on that team, is truly bonkers.

1:22:09So if we're talking about the most valuable player to his team, I think Justin Herbert's probably in the conversation. Winning the most valuable player award in the NFL, it's just not started based on the production. Oh, and I would just throw out there too. He played one of the worst games ever and then went on his bye week, but Patrick Mahomes is still hanging around. Yeah, he'll be there by the end. There's a reason that Mahomes and Josh Allen are both like in the top three or four when it comes to betting odds. By the end of the season, this might be a different conversation, but right now I think it's probably between Stafford and Drake May to me.

1:22:37I picked Drake May last week. I'll be happy to make the case for Matthew Stafford this week. Yeah, I feel good about that. Although, I mean, And Darnold's case was a lot stronger than I thought it was when I started doing this. When you look at the rate stats, they're extremely impressive. He mentioned it to me on maybe the hangover like two weeks ago. We were talking about Sam Darnold. He was like flirting with the MVP case. And I was like, when he first said it, I was like, that sounds ridiculous. And then I was trying to think in the moment. I was like, how many players would I really put over Sam Darnold?

1:23:03And it's probably not more than like three or four. I also think it's partially it's not just the numbers. Like when you watch how he's playing the position right now, the offense does some lifting. it doesn't do enough to discount the way that he has played so far this year. He's playing really, really, really well. All right. The Drake May, Sam Dernald MVP conversation we were all expecting to have back in August when we did our preseason awards. That is all we've got for today. If you have not checked out this week's edition of Building the Beast with Dave and Dane Brugler, highly encourage you guys to do that.

1:23:34Dane's top 50, his new top 50, just got released. They dug into that this week, so go check that out. we will be back on Friday with a f***ing doozy of a preview show we got Ram Seahawks we got a bunch of different stuff to hit very much looking forward to that one so encourage you guys to check that out for now that's all we got appreciate you listening we'll talk to you soon