2025 NFL season predictions

0:03Robert Mays: Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. It is officially predictions time. We are two days away from the NFL season. We're recording this on Tuesday. Me, Dave Helman, Derrik Klassen predicting, I don't know, all the stuff that you can probably bet on who's winning all of these awards, MVP, defensive player of the year, offensive, defensive rookie of the year, coach of the year, assistant coach of the year. We picked protector of the year because that's the thing that I'm very excited about for 2025. And then we pick the playoff teams who we think is going to win each division, who our three wildcard teams are in each conference.

0:35Robert Mays: And we pick the Super Bowl, just the teams we think are going to be playing in it and the team we think is going to win it. So that's what we've got on tap for you guys today. Let's get to it right now.

0:50Robert Mays: It's about that time. A couple of days from the kickoff of the NFL season. We're recording this on Tuesday, September 2nd. You guys are hopefully listening to it on Wednesday, September 3rd. The NFL season kicks off tomorrow. Eagles, Cowboys, Thursday night. David's predictions time. It's our favorite time of the year. You got to put your name on some stuff that people are going to give you shit about for the next six months.

1:12Derrik Klassen: It's like one last little bit of dread. Like, I'm so excited to just throw all the preseason stuff out the window and watch some football. But yeah, we got to do this uncomfortable thing where, yeah, I didn't sleep that great last night Cause I was like, tomorrow I have to say a bunch of shit that people are going to hate me for. And it's going to age terribly, but it's a rite of passage.

1:33Robert Mays: Derek, I feel like there's one of two ways you can go with this as you've done it. As long as I have, you can get more irreverent in the picks that you make for stuff like this. You can care less or, and just be like, yeah, you know what? It is how it is. Or you can be like how I was this year and have conviction on none of these. So I'm like zero conviction on any of my picks.

1:52Dave Helman: I'm a little bit splitting the difference. Cause we're going to do playoffs. And then we're also going to do all the awards. The awards I want to get right. Those ones I thought about. I'm like, OK, these are just I'm picking the players where I think this is truly how I think the season is going to go. The playoffs, I was a little bit more like I'm just going to cause some problems on purpose.

2:08Robert Mays: With the awards, I truly have less of a feel this year than I feel like I've ever had. It feels like a very players.

2:15Derrik Klassen: It feels like a very tough year.

2:16Robert Mays: We'll talk about this as we get into some of them. But even like assistant coach of the year, which is typically I come in being like, oh, I have a pretty good idea of like, which unit will be shaped by someone and he'll be a driving narrative of the season like i think i did pick ben johnson last year he did win it last year this year i was like i don't know mvp is so weird because you had lamar probably should have won it last year based on the season that he had i have no problem with josh allen winning it and people are gonna be pissed off about that a guy winning first team all pro at a position and then not winning mvp is i think unprecedented so it was a weird year and i think those weird narratives will play into how this season goes And I'm like, all right, maybe there's a third guy.

2:55Robert Mays: You mentioned Joe Burrow's name last week. That's like, all right, maybe this is his year. But then you think about the necessary components to win MVP and the fact that you essentially need to be the number one seed. And are the Bengals going to be good enough to do that? So there are just so many layers to picking these awards this year that I felt like were impediments to clear choices. So we haven't even started the show and I'm just hedging already.

3:17Derrik Klassen: As long as the process is good. Like, I think if you followed the league for any amount of time, you know that half the stuff we say in July and August is going to look silly before the season's even halfway over. Correct. And so like getting it right isn't I mean, it would be nice getting it right. It's not really my goal. It's just like the process where you landed on some of this stuff. Like, did it make sense? Could you defend your opinions? Are you doing things willy nilly? Are you following the right trends? All that good type of stuff. So I care more about the process than the results, because really and like even when you get some of this stuff right, you know how lucky you have to be to nail a prediction like this.

3:55Derrik Klassen: Like even if you get it right, it's more blind squirrel finding and not than anything.

4:00Robert Mays: Let's get to it. We're going to start with the awards today, and then we're going to get into our division winners, playoff team, Super Bowl picks, all that a little bit later in the show. We'll end this with MVP. It's typically how we've done it. I've always joked that it's kind of like the Oscars. Like we'll do one at the beginning that matters. And then we'll get into some of the more technical awards in the middle. And then we'll come back with best picture at the end. So let's start with defensive player of the year. That's the toughest one. This is actually the one I felt the best about.

4:28Robert Mays: I don't know if I'll get it right. But based on the preseason and based on the options, I was like, I feel good about the person I'm going to put in here. It's not the guy with the best odds. It's not the clear favorite. It's just like my vision of the season. And this is the one where it's like, all right, I'm going to let this one fly and feel okay. I don't feel that way about any of the awards I'm picking, any of the other ones. Really? That's interesting because I struggled.

4:49Derrik Klassen: I struggled with DPOI a lot. Just when you look at who traditionally wins it, where those guys are in the league. Because I think you all talked about this on the show last year. And I know Patrick Sertan won it last year. But by and large, you can kind of count on a defensive end or an edge rusher to win this award. and look at it and like there's a good reason why a lot of the prominent edge rushers in the league are not in a good spot because you typically also need to be on a really good team i went back and looked since the year 2000 only four players who played on a team that didn't reach the postseason have one defensive player of the year you need to make the playoffs at the very least you got to be the one seed or anything but you got it you typically need to make the playoffs i'm wondering

5:33Robert Mays: if there's how much of this is true or this is just anecdotal it also feels like you need to be on like one of those defenses that year you have to be on one of the best one or two defenses in the league your defense as a unit has to be like a driving narrative force behind how that nfl season

5:47Dave Helman: goes that's why it's hard to ever pick like max crosby like max crosby is of the caliber of a player who can win the award but when you're playing on that defense like what is even if he gets 14 15 sacks in a season like he's probably just never going to be up for it i think that's

6:00Derrik Klassen: fair that's why that's how i feel about a lot of the guys this year love max crosby how great do you feel about the Raiders having that type of impact TJ Watt? I mean, the Steelers made the playoffs last year. I'm not saying it's impossible, but we did a whole show about the drama and implosion potential of the Steelers. Miles Garrett is on a team, a Cleveland team that not many people think very highly of. It would be easy to just say, oh, well, Micah Parsons, Micah Parsons didn't have a training camp. That's awfully concerning to me. You could say the same thing about Trey Hendrickson. So of the prime time star edge rushers, there's a lot working against them.

6:37Derrik Klassen: And it makes me very curious about who might emerge.

6:40Robert Mays: It's funny because we've said this a bunch over the last month or so, Derek, this idea of this team has as good a chance as any to be the best team in the league. The three guys I would pick on this list, none of whom you have mentioned so far, all play for defenses that were in that list for us. I think this defense has a chance to be the best defense in the league so i it's i understand a lot of the big name guys have issues most of the guys i was picking from i feel pretty good about all the circumstantial stuff that could line up for them so why don't i just throw mine out first i've been going through that whole song and dance i've alluded to this a little bit on other shows i think i know i think i do too i'm

7:15Dave Helman: will anderson yeah i love it man like he is just he is a special special player i think this is the

7:22Robert Mays: year where it can kind of all come together for him you know when talking to people there in training camp and just about his evolution as a player over the last couple years you know first year i think you're just getting your feet wet it's like pure speed to power guy all the time run defense is where he really shows up in the same way people thought he might as a prospect last year i think that you know the idea of being able to bully people but then just using your hands late and shedding people and kind of getting some more hustle sacks becomes part of it and this year and talking to defensive coaches in Houston, I think that one, I've said this when I was there at practice, he looks insane.

7:56Robert Mays: Like just everyone else in a while, you're going to find these guys who just look like they're different sort of species than you are in the NFL. Miles Garrett has always been like that. Aaron Donald has always been like that when you see them in person. Well, what will Anderson looks like now physically just looks wild. And then hearing just some of the work that he had done this off season, when it comes to truly adding to the toolbox for himself as a pass rusher that to me felt like the final level and it really does sound like that refinement has come along at the right pace and so i just feel like that's all coming together at the right time and i think the texans specifically have a chance to be one of those defenses this year that could be the best defense in the league or one of the best couple and so that's enough collectively combined with we like to give it to guys who've never had it before the narrative kind of can pick up steam on its own so that's why enough of this stuff lined up where i felt okay about him being the pick.

8:46Derrik Klassen: I love that pick. And I thought about that as well. And the one thing that held me off was just that if that, if everything goes the way you want it to for the Texans, he could at least be sharing some spotlight and some credit with Daniel Hunter, which is what happened last year.

9:03Robert Mays: I'm crazy like that. So I totally understand that. I just, I think he might emerge as like the guy from that defense by the end of this season.

9:10Dave Helman: I think like that was my initial pick. And then I went with the most boring pick that I think you can make at this point, which is once Michael Parsons got traded. Like that was my pick. And a lot of it, too, is like these awards are narrative things. And if the Packers defense takes that jump because we spent the entire offseason, everybody saying, oh, they don't have a star player. They can't rush the passer the way that they want to. If he generates that for them and he gets 14, 15 sacks, which I think even without a training camp, like he is one of the handful of players that like he can probably do that anyway.

9:42Dave Helman: And so if he accomplishes that and the Packers have, I don't know, the eighth best defense and they win 13, 14 games like he's he would absolutely be on the short list for it.

9:50Derrik Klassen: If there's a guy who could miss six weeks of practice and still be just fine, Micah Parsons is on that list. I'm not worried at all about the story coming out about his back sprain that, that hit the news in the last couple of days. I don't think that's going to slow him down at all. I don't think that's a bad pick. I just, when you miss six weeks, I just, I don't want to jump into it with my full chest.

10:13Dave Helman: I'm just doing too much Packers stuff. So like, I was just kind of leaning into this.

10:16Derrik Klassen: This is actually really funny because I had a guy and I thought it was who Robert was going to pick. And I was like, all right, well, in the interest of introducing as many names as possible, let me just leave this guy off. That's interesting. So I wasn't going to use him. And I had a whole different name queued up. But hearing Robert say Will Anderson, I feel even better about saying Aiden Hutchinson. That was the other guy I was going to say. And again, narratively, it works so well because we all think that the Lions defense could be really special this year if everything goes the way they want it to.

10:44Derrik Klassen: even if they take a step back playoffs i don't think it's worth spoiling anything by saying we think the lions are in the playoff mix for sure and aiden hutchinson isn't dealing with as much of what will anderson is which is to say if if he's great like he's going to be the center of that defense he's going to be the star of the show obviously they have some good players elsewhere but he is the name on the lions defense and if he plays remotely like he was playing before he got hurt and that's you got to worry about that he's coming off of the major leg injury but if he looks anything like that guy he will be the face of a defense on an nfc power so i feel great saying

11:23Robert Mays: aiden hutchinson everything i said about what i understand when it comes to being the best player on what we think might be the best defense in the league can be also true for aiden hutchinson yes if you look at the terror he was on to start last season i have no issues with that whatsoever he also has the second best odds to win the award after michael parsons he's currently plus 700 at bet MGM. So it's not like this is a surprise to people. Aiden Hutchinson and Will Anderson were probably the two guys that I had circled as we were making the final short list here. I thought about throwing Jared verse out there as well.

11:50Robert Mays: I think that's a fair one. Again, to me, it's about how high is the ceiling for the Rams defense actually. But I think that's probably one of the other names I would throw out. And then, so for each of these, you guys have a long shot for each of these. So I wanted to do, we've done this in the past. I think it's just a fun way to kind of throw more names into the mix, but we're each going to pick like a long shot or semi-long shot that we like the odds for the one I'm going to pick. I think a lot of the same stuff lines up for this guy to the other three young pass rushers we just mentioned. Jalen Carter is 20 to one.

12:19Dave Helman: Yeah. That is kind of crazy. That is for a player that everyone already loves. That is like kind of crazy.

12:25Derrik Klassen: It's tough as an interior. Yes. Pass rusher. I know Donald did it all the time, but he's Aaron. The numbers you need to get there.

12:31Robert Mays: I think it's a tough bar to clear, but if Jalen Carter gets like 14 sacks and the Eagles are the best defense in the league and again the Eagles defense is like a driving force narratively for the NFL and we all kind of collectively come to a place where like all right Jalen Carter was a really really good player last year now he's one of the best players in the league you can feel the momentum start to build where he's somebody that we would mention with us that's a good one I actually also had

12:55Dave Helman: an interior player mine for me was again defense that I think might be the best in the league like if the Seahawks defense is as good as I think it is and Leonard Williams plays the way that he did for like the last eight weeks of the year. I mean, he was on a tear, dude.

13:08Robert Mays: He played awesome last year.

13:09Dave Helman: Leonard Williams is 60 to one to win defensive player. I mean, when I say long shot, it is extreme long shot.

13:15Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I consider Jared Verse my long shot. He's like still top 10 in odds, I think.

13:19Dave Helman: Leonard Williams is not going to win it, but it's just in my mind, if the Seahawks defense is that good, it's because Leonard Williams put up like 12 sacks and was one of the best run defenders in the league.

13:29Robert Mays: So why don't we do this? I'll throw out one more name. Just everything else we've talked about before. You mentioned this. If the Texans defense is really, really good and we start throwing out multiple guys from the Texans defense. Why couldn't Daniel Hunter have 20 sacks? Yeah, he could. He absolutely could. He's 80 to one.

13:44Dave Helman: He had the best pressure rate in the league last year. He could absolutely do that. That's the complication with him and Anderson, right? Is this just like.

13:50Robert Mays: Yeah. So here. Listen, I'm about to. I love the player. I'm about to say. Brian Branch has 80 to one. I looked at him for a little bit. Daniel Hunter and Brian Branch should not have the same odds to win defensive player. That is crazy.

14:02Derrik Klassen: I remember saying this last year. You realize Daniil Hunter is going to hit 100 career sacks this year. He's on 99 and a half. Like he's going to get there. Even if he has a bad year, he's going to get there. And I don't think anybody talks about Daniil Hunter as a guy with 100 career sacks. He's just been doing it for. He's an extraordinarily underrated player for what he's done.

14:20Robert Mays: He's 30, right? Yeah. And so and he had 12 sacks last year. So let's just say hypothetically, Daniil Hunter has three more seasons of a dozen sacks. and he ends his career with 135 sacks and he's like a second team all pro once or twice he's

14:38Derrik Klassen: been second team all pro one time yeah i mean yeah he's still got time to play obviously but

14:42Robert Mays: i'm just saying it's yeah then we're at a point where and this is the most important thing but let's say he makes two pro bowls over that span then we're at a point where he's made seven pro bowls in a 10-year period with 135 career sacks and like maybe a couple more second or 13 all pros just we're throwing out there it changes the conversation about what

15:02Derrik Klassen: his career is i feel like daniel hunter is one of those guys who when he retires he's gonna like adam schefter is gonna send out the tweet that's like daniel hunter will be eligible for the hall of fame in this year and a lot of people are gonna be like daniel hunter is not a hall of famer that's what i'm that's what i'm and then they're gonna look at his resume and be like

15:18Robert Mays: holy shit daniel hunter might be a hall of famer it'll be a worthwhile conversation by the time we get there let's get to offensive player of the year i you guys can start with this i have the most boring choice imaginable Derek where are you going with offensive player of the year in 2025

15:30Dave Helman: mine is also exceptionally boring I so I actually originally went in with a conflict of like I had too many players from the offense I wanted to give him an award so I'm actually just going to go with Jamar Chase that's what I did yeah to me it's just like he's we all know the Bengals are going to throw 5 ,000 times and so long as Chase plays 17 games he might win the triple crown again like he just there's no reason for me like he probably deserved the award last year if we didn't have two insane seasons from running backs the way that we did. I think that's right.

15:59Robert Mays: Jamar Chase finished with 1700 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. And we just don't even really talk to think about it because he just does that. And we had the seasons that we did from the running backs. And so I just feel like so many reasons we've talked about this, Dave, like the health concerns with Saquon, what that workload means, even if he's healthy, do we see a slight downtick in production? And if we do, I just feel like there's not a lot of reasons to believe the Bengals offense collectively is going to be much less productive than it was last year. So even if he doesn't have the season he had last year, even if Jamar Chase has 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns on 120 catches, that still is a season where you could easily win offensive player of the year.

16:39Derrik Klassen: It's funny how I believe in the Bengals as a playoff contender. I think they're going to look exactly as good as they did last year, but it's still hard for me to get on board with having the best receiver, having the best season in the league two years in a row, which is what you'd be asking Jamar Chase to do. Man, I think he can do it. I'm not saying he can't do it. I'm saying I'm nervous about predicting him to do it.

17:03Robert Mays: Part of the reason I think it's okay.

17:04Derrik Klassen: But who's stopping him from doing it? Do you want my answer? Because my answer is really boring, too. If it runs in conflict with him, with Chase winning it, then. It doesn't. But the thing that I think about is there's a guy who had an insane year last year who somehow feels overlooked. And offensive player of the year was the easiest award for me to pick among all of these, because I think I just feel so confident that Derek Henry is going to do what he did again. So that was he's going to do it again. He does it every freaking year. He the Ravens offense is the same slash better. The offensive line should be better.

17:38Derrik Klassen: The quarterback is an MVP. Derek Henry has never shown signs of slowing down one time in his career. The Ravens are, unless somebody gets hurt, they're going to win 11 games, maybe as many as 14 or 15 games. He's going to have another 2000 yard season. And the thing, again, I thought I tried to think about narrative with all of this as much as I could. By the end of last year, Derek Henry's 2100 yard season, all purpose. Felt like an afterthought, like that's how much airspace Saquon Barkley was taking up. And rightfully so. I'm not taking that credit away from Saquon, but Derek Henry had an equally incredible year and didn't get rewarded for it.

18:17Derrik Klassen: And so if they come close to replicating what they did last year, which I think they will, I think like if I was really betting money on somebody to win one of these awards, I think Derek Henry's damn near a lock to do it.

18:29Dave Helman: I love that. Cause I really did. He was Derek Henry was my initial pick. And then I ended up kind of switching to chase, but Henry is like, for the same reason it's like i've truly gotten to the point with derrick henry where i'm not betting that he's going to slow down until it happens like until he is not playing the sport anymore i'm gonna bet that he can run for like 1600 yards and i guess on this team the other

18:49Derrik Klassen: thing too is there's less variables for me to worry about like the ravens are going to run the freaking ball it's the same ensemble and they're going to run a million times the bengals i mean chase could have he could get less targets because t higgins gets more targets we i think the the Bengals run game is going to be better this year. I think Chase Brown could eat into some of that. So Jamar Chase could have an all pro caliber year and just not quite scratch 1700 yards and 17 touchdowns because that is an incredible stat line. So that's just where I get nervous. Not that Jamar Chase is going to quote unquote drop off, but like that is such a dizzying high for me to think that he can do again.

19:25Robert Mays: I really like the Derek Henry did not get rewarded for the season he had last year and he had an insane all time season. That's actually a good precursor to picking him to win the award who is your long shot Derek long shot to win offensive player of

19:37Dave Helman: the year this year I mean I'm gonna keep leaning into the bit I've done for two years now but like Drake London at plus 5 ,000 I also like Jake with as many times as they're probably gonna throw to him like in I'm like a little bit iffy on how good the Falcons are actually gonna be but like in the world where they win 11 12 games to me it's because Drake London catches like 1700 yards and is just an absolute demon in the red zone.

20:01Robert Mays: So I was looking at numbers right now. And so two anecdotal things. One, I had my like big fantasy football auction two weekends ago. A bunch of players are kept. So there's some caveats to this, but the one player, big money player, I was like, I'm leaving this auction with this guy this year was Drake London. Because I truly believe that Drake London based on the circumstances in Atlanta could have like a monster, monster season. In the back half of last year, only Puka Nakua had more targets per route run than Drake London he was at 33 which was second in the NFL among all receivers with at least 50 targets over that span he finished in the top five in yards per route run over that stretch despite the volume all the other players that were up in that level when it comes to targets per route run Puka CeeDee Lamb Mike Evans Devante Adams and then league neighbors Brian Thomas Nico Collins the next three but all those guys in the top five that were like up bumping up against 30 percent puka now has davante adams on his team cd now has george pickens on his team mike evans is a new offensive coordinator davante adams is on a different team i just think that drake london all of the environmental stuff is lining up for him to have a similar sort of focal point role that he did for the falcons last year when there's questions about some of all these other guys if you told me at the end of the season that drake london was like that led the league in targets led the league in receiving yards i don't think that's like a crazy place to go and so for him to be 50 to one that was an easy easy pick for me as a long shot yeah

21:28Derrik Klassen: i think a really interesting one that's also plus five or no excuse me plus uh six thousand i think we we talked about this earlier in the summer and i'm not saying he's as good as those guys but josh jacobs has every chance to have those sorts of numbers and i think the packers will probably pass the ball a little bit more this year but you're still talking about a guy who could run for 15 1600 yards and 15 plus touchdowns and if the packers do have that nuclear season where they're the one seed or even the two seed that's just an easy guy to give the award to if he's kind of the face of their offensive production and plus six like that those are such good odds for a star running back on a team that most people view as a contender Like I would have thought that just the Packers visibility would make those odds less.

22:17Derrik Klassen: Like if I'm seeing those numbers, maybe I'll go. I mean, I'm like the biggest Packers optimist right now,

22:24Dave Helman: but like if I had to pick a rushing leader, that was like not Derek Henry or say, say one can get through the season. It would probably have been Josh Jacobs. So like at that money,

22:32Derrik Klassen: that's actually pretty like he's not talked about. Like he's part of that group, which like he's not, he's not as special as those guys, but he, he can put up numbers like those guys. And I've done it on multiple occasions.

22:43Dave Helman: This is kind of the issue almost with Drake London, too. They don't have as many of the flashy explosive plays as the Jamar Chases, the Derrick Henry's, the Saquon Barkley's. But like production wise, they can get to about the same level.

22:56Robert Mays: Let's get to coach of the year as our next one here. This one was really hard for me this year because most of the time we've this is the narrative around this award every single year. most of the time the people that win coach of the year it is the did your team win more games than they should have award the guys who fall into that bucket this year are just teams where i'm like i don't know i'm not sure if i'm necessarily buying this when you look at the odds the best odds are ben johnson at plus at seven to one mike variable at eight and a half to one liam cohen at 12 to one kellen moore 12 to one which is i cannot support that even as the saints guy that is preposterous to me.

23:33Robert Mays: Pete Carroll is 12 to one. Sean Payton is 14 to one. That all, all I get all of those actually like Sean Payton as like a potential option there, but the ones that are, Oh, this team is clearly going to overachieve this year. The fact that the bears have the best odds of being that, I think I just would never be able to pick it. So a lot of the guys that typically fall into the bucket of who normally wins coach of the year, I just, I'm not sure I'm buying any of those narratives. And so that for this year specifically made it kind of hard to land on a choice that I felt good about.

24:04Dave Helman: Same. Like it's either ends up being those guys or like once every three or four years, it's just like this team won 15 games. Yes. Like, uh, the 2019 Ravens, John Harbaugh won it. Yes. And it's like, we all already knew that John Harbaugh was a really good coach, but when you win 14 games with a new quarterback, it's like, okay, well that kind of starts to change about how we think about it.

24:21Robert Mays: And I also think that's, that's one more layer to it. Every once in a while we'll have the, Oh, this team is different. This season winner of this award, that's actually the guy, the type of guy that I picked same, but I don't really feel good. We picked the same person. I promise you imagining we picked the same person, but it wasn't easy to land on somebody this year. So Dave, I think because Derek and I picked the same guy, I'm going to let you kick this off. Who was your 2025 coach of the year winner? Well, now I'm

24:45Derrik Klassen: wondering if maybe we have the same guy, maybe not. I mean, there's plenty of candidates for this, but I went through the same calculus that you did. And I looked at it and I was like, I think I like this to be a year where the coach of the year is the coach of like the one seed, like a team establishes himself as dominant. This is not a surprising team. And we joke all the time, like Andy Reed hasn't won coach of the year as the head coach of the Kansas city chiefs, which is insane.

25:13Robert Mays: Like he's 80 to one this year, by the way, because we typically,

25:17Derrik Klassen: we typically don't reward coaches of good teams. Him and Sirianni have the worst odds. that is it's so funny how this award works by the compared to every other award so i'm glad you said that because i went with nick sirianni to win coach of the year really and i think so here's my pushback on this how good would the eagles have to be for this to happen number one here here's my reasoning and i firmly believe this i've been on this since free agency ended and we looked at what the rave or what the eagles were going to look like i think philly is going a role this year like i i think they are the best team in the nfc i still i i don't think they are like i don't think they've come that far down to earth and really as long as saquon barkley is healthy i think that this can be a 14 win team again this year and the reason why i think it's different or at least i've talked myself into that is it's one thing to be like the good team And voters often don't want to award you for that.

26:16Derrik Klassen: But to be a team that has a chance to go back to back. And again, this would be the second time that Nick Sirianni is trying to navigate losing coordinators like he lost Kellen Moore. If he navigates it successfully this time and deals with the Super Bowl hangover, the attrition and making the right hires and avoiding the pitfalls that plagued them in 2023. If you do all of that and you are the one seed and it's unquestionable that you were the best team in the NFC. If the Eagles win, I put it one game lower. If the Eagles go 13 and four this year, Nick Sirianni is career winning percentage jumps to 72 percent.

26:57Derrik Klassen: Puts him one spot. Outrageous. One spot behind Vince Lombardi. and so i mean i i am i'm taking a long shot here because voters often don't like to reward these sorts of things but again like and especially sorry eagles fans but when you don't have the patrick mahomes quarterback that eases all of this concern and even if you love jalen hurts i don't think people view him as quite on that tier and you are doing this with more working parts than just Patrick is going to make us write 14 times a year. I think that's more impressive. And again, I, what this would be five, if they do this, it would be five playoff trips in five years.

27:38Derrik Klassen: It would be being the one seed in a year where you're coming off of a championship. I think they have to be the one seed to do it, but I think it could be impressive enough that people say, hang on a second, let's give some credit to Nick Sirianni because we look for other people to give all of that credit to every other year but if they are really able to sustain this in such an impressive way i think it could reflect and yeah i think you're probably talking about philly needing to win 13 or 14 games to do this but i think they're capable of it so the team that

28:10Robert Mays: that reminds me of the most when it comes to they weren't like a juggernaut all season during the regular season they were very very good team but then they really hit a different gear when we got burn of the year and then they felt like by far the best team in the nfl during the regular season is like the 2010 to 2011 packers were like this they were 10 and 16 in 2010 they won the super bowl and then they won 15 games in previous next year don't talk to packers fans about what happened later in that season but during the regular season they went 15 and won mike mccarthy did not win coach of the year that year because that was the year that jim harbaugh's year 149 yeah so but that's the same sort of deal my other i think it's difficult to do this the other difficult part of this and this is just comes along with the Nick Sirianni conversation every year I feel like it's more likely Jalen Hurts wins MVP and Howie Roseman wins executive of the year than Nick Sirianni wins coach of the year in that scenario see I almost kind of think the opposite where if the

29:06Dave Helman: team can really prove that they are good again I think there might be some sort of admittance that

29:10Robert Mays: like maybe Sirianni is just really really good at this I think I don't think that's wrong I don't think that's the wrong place to go i just think it's a tough hill to climb because of how good the roster is i mean it's the same conversation we've had about next year and i've each the last three years it is he won the super bowl and i think there's still probably people out there being like what does he really do yeah you know and i think that would be part of this again

29:31Derrik Klassen: i i completely agree with that but i do think like if we get to december and philly's only lost one or two times then i'm just i'm imagining the groundswell of like hey notice what has happened here and give the guy that calls the shots at the end of the day, the credit for it. I do, I do think it's an uphill climb and maybe it's, maybe it's wishful thinking. And again, really, if I could just, if I could just guarantee that Andy Reed would win this just so that he has won it at some point during his chief's tenure, I would. Cause I think that's an oversight. Like, I do think we should reward the coaches of the consistently best teams, even if they have good rosters.

30:09It's, it's silly to think, I mean, do yourself a favor, not you guys, but if you're

30:14Derrik Klassen: listening, go look at the list of guys that have won coach of the year in the NFL and tell me that some of them should have that award compared to an Andy Reed or even a Nick Sirianni with everything that he's done. So maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do think again, this would be another, this would be another time that the Eagles are trying to overcome attrition. They're trying to overcome having a target on their backs. And if they do it impressively enough, then I think ultimately people will come around on the idea that like yeah the head coach is a part of this too Derek who'd you have for coach of the year Matt LaFleur I mean if I'm gonna if I'm gonna

30:49Dave Helman: say the Packers are gonna win like 14 15 games sensing a theme in your uh there there's a big thing here it's a lot of Packers uh but yeah like truly if we're gonna have a season where I don't believe in because the other thing me and Dave were actually talking about this earlier like if you're gonna be one of those teams that um you know everyone thought the over and under was seven and a half and then you win a bunch of games you win more than you're supposed to and you win the coach of the year that way almost every time that happens those teams still win at least 11 games so like me trying to get to 11 games with a lot of these teams i think was difficult the only time since 2010 where a team where a coach won the award with fewer than 11 wins was brian dable in 2022 like it just feels like you're really trying to thread a needle to be under that but like so i just didn't feel that comfortable about any mid teams that could get to 11 wins so I just was like, well, kind of to what you said, like, I'm just going to pick the one seed that I think is interesting.

31:40Dave Helman: And to me, I think it's going to be the Packers and Matt LaFleur.

31:41Robert Mays: I also picked Matt LaFleur. I did. I don't feel great about it because I do think the same tone we took the first time we really started having this conversation, which was on the half-baked take show where I was like, could this be the season where the Packers do this? I'm no more convicted on it now than I was then, even after the Michael Parsons trade. I got my tone is still the same. I'm like, could this be the season the Packers do it? That's where I sit with it. And that's how not convicted I felt about any of the other options is I was like, even if I'm not all the way there on this being the season where the Packers win like 13, 14 games, I'm still going to pick Matt LaFleur here because I don't feel that great about any of the other, not only options, but any of the other timelines of how the season will play out based on this award.

32:23Derrik Klassen: Exactly. Should I have thought harder about Kevin O 'Connell going back to back? Like if the Vikings exceed expectations with JJ McCarthy, you just let him hold on to it.

32:31Robert Mays: The opposite of the Sirianni thing. It's just like we know exactly what Kevin O 'Connell does. Jason McCarthy is good. Exactly. The two guys I will say that are have decent odds that are not long shots that I would throw out that I feel like I can see this happening. Pete Carroll at 12 to one. Yeah. If the Raiders are like the surprise playoff team this year, which I do think is possible, even if they play in a very tough AFC West. And then Sean Payton at 14 to one. That was harder to see because the Broncos made the playoffs last year. So how good would the Broncos have to be this year? They would have to win like 13.

33:00Robert Mays: I think they'd have to be, they'd have to win the division, right? Like they'd have to win the AFC West. And it's just, that is, even if you think they can win 11 games, I think they can beating the chiefs in that division. I still think it's just a little bit tough. So that's why like, even the guys with decent odds that I could see it happening, it's just hard for me to pick them. So that's why I went with the floor. And then for the long shots, I've got a couple that very quickly came to mind for me. Brian Calhan at 40 to one. Yeah. Based on some of the other things I'm going to say on the rest of the show, I probably should have just picked him.

33:30Robert Mays: but I just, I don't have the bravery to do it. Brian Callahan at 40 to one. If the Titans are that surprise playoff team this year, I think they have as good a chance as a lot of these other teams to get there. And so I liked that at 40 to one, the other one at 40 to one that again, you can just see it happening. What if the lions just win 13 games this year and the coordinator changes didn't matter. It's very easy for me to imagine a world where Dan Campbell wins it and he's 40 to one to win it right now.

33:56Derrik Klassen: There's so many things that will happen that will make my Sirianni prediction hard to follow through on that. Yeah. Like if the, if the lions don't miss a beat changing coordinators, that's tough to argue against. And the lions went 15 and two last year and Dan Campbell didn't win this damn award. I'm already, I'm having, I'm already having regrets about rolling with Sirianni, but I believe that much in the Eagles this year that I'll stick with it.

34:20Robert Mays: All right. Before we get to a couple of the smaller awards and MVP, we're going to take our first quick break.

34:28All right.

34:28Robert Mays: offensive rookie of the year. Derek, who do you have winning offensive rookie of the year in 2025?

34:35Dave Helman: Boring pick, but it's the quarterback who went first overall. I think it's going to be Cam Ward. And like, this is like, everyone has made the joke, but like, this is the least talked about number one pick at quarterback in like probably my entire lifetime. And it does not make sense to me because it's not, I guess part of it is like, it's the Titans and there was all of the Sanders stuff with his class and so I get it from that perspective but the way that he plays is the way that we want all of the quarterbacks to play now it's like freewheeling in the pocket it's being tough and making plays like his arm elasticity is incredible his arm talent is incredible like he just has this he just is such a gunslinger back there who also I think has still more like mental acumen to him than people think like I think when we see a lot of these gunslingers the backguard like ball type of players.

35:21Dave Helman: There's just this assumption that is like Johnny Manziel. And they're like, not really like playing the game. That is not at all how I feel about Cam Ward. Like there is some element of like the way that I watch Mahomes or like Jordan Love or just those guys that will do a lot of this interesting and creative stuff. But they're also very clearly put together. And so he's still a rookie. And so that's going to be a little bit of a process. But just seeing the way that he handled the preseason, seeing what I think he can handle mentally, like from the jump and what he proved in college, just like consistent.

35:49Dave Helman: leveling up like that to me is really important. So he just, I think so long as the one receiver he can throw to and Calvin Ridley is healthy for a majority of the year, I think like he's, he's probably going to win it.

35:58Robert Mays: And I also, we've talked about this a bunch and it'll come up again on this show, the offensive line quality for the Titans, potentially that is a good situation to be dropped into as a rookie quarterback. When just when it comes to stability, a lot of these guys get drafted on teams that have awful offensive lines. And the fact that the Titans were as intentional as they were about making sure that was beefed up before he got dropped in there. I just feel like he is set up a little bit better than a lot of guys drafted number one overall.

36:22Derrik Klassen: I agree with that, but on the off chance we're wrong. I think it's worth pointing out CJ Stroud and Jaden Daniels have raised the bar of what a first year quarterback can do. That's right. But you can win this award struggling as a rookie. Like Kyler Murray won rookie of the year on a five win Cardinals team. Justin Herbert's stats were otherworldly as a rookie, but the Chargers did not finish that season with a winning record. So I don't think it's a fair bar to hold these guys to that. Cam Ward has to transform the Titans franchise overnight in order to win offensive rookie of the year.

36:57Robert Mays: There's also a chance he's just not good as a rookie. True. Right. Like, I mean, that that happens. Yeah. Then it doesn't really say anything about what he'll be for the rest of his career. So Cam Ward just has a more normal rookie season compared to the ones we've seen for CJ Stroud and Jaden Daniels. he may not win this award it may just be ashton jenty gets 330 carries and even if he has 3.8 yards a carry he still wins it like i'm i'm open to that happening because i do think it's very possible who is your did you pick i went with cam ward okay oh so we all went with cam yeah well i

37:27Dave Helman: mean first overall picket quarterback i mean he does not have the best odds to win the award no

37:31Derrik Klassen: i assume but so again when i game that out and will that shock me no absolutely not but if ashton has a 1100 yard season for a Raiders team that wins six to eight games and misses the playoffs. What's more? And let's just assume Cam Ward's pretty good. Like even if the Titans aren't a playoff team, like I still, I think you get, I actually, I think this happened. Didn't was Kyler won this over Josh Jacobs, I believe. Yeah.

38:01Dave Helman: And Josh Jacobs was, yeah.

38:02Derrik Klassen: And Josh Jacobs was awesome. And so like, even like if Cam Ward's merely decent, tie goes to the quarterback, tie goes to the quarterback, especially if he makes the Titans relevant. Like if the Titans are even a mediocre team, a team that's like fighting for a playoff spot, like quarterback gets the tie for sure. And my other calculus with this too, is like the, the rookie kind of has to feel,

38:23Dave Helman: at least in my opinion, with the quarterback, you kind of want them to feel immediately like the most important player on the offense. Like that was true. CJ started, even if you say like quality wise, Nico Collins is a better player. We all immediately felt that like CJ shout was the most important same thing with jaden daniels i feel like unless genti is like otherworldly he's just never going to feel like the most important player on the offense because he's playing next to brock bowers and so like maybe that's like bad calculus on this but i do think that is like at

38:48Robert Mays: least yeah i don't think that matters all the way but i i kind of understand where you're coming from i i still just think that if cam word has a more normal rookie season and ashton genti gets the workload we expect him to get there's absolutely a clear path for ashton genti to win this that's why he has the best odds long shots for offensive rookie of the year are there aren't many of them like there just aren't a lot of guys over like 20 to 1 odds that you can even make a real case for like rj harvey's at 25 to 1 it's hard for me to imagine the volume is just not rj harvey wins offensive rookie of the year so i'm fudging a little bit when it comes to long shots i pick somebody that's 10 to 1 or longer tedrow mcmillan getting like a disgusting number of targets this year and having especially with feeling on a true wide receiver one type of season like production wise i do think i can imagine the universe where tedrow mcwill and mcmillan wins offensive rookie of the year he's 14 to 1 so that was my pick if i wanted to go true long shot

39:46Derrik Klassen: and shout out dane brugler he mentioned this on building the beast as well like i either of the first round tight ends is intriguing to me what what sort is if brock bowers i just can't see last year. Yeah. Okay. Brock Bowers was going up against the guy who transformed the Washington commanders. Like if cam ward struggles or if he's just ordinary, like if the, if the Titans win six games this year and cams like fine, like the Brock Bowers didn't, he, he didn't lose offensive rookie of the year. Cause he wasn't amazing. He just picked a bad year to have that year. Like that's all that happened.

40:20Derrik Klassen: So if cam ward is anything less than transforming the Titans, an amazing season from Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland could get the job done. Like those numbers were award worthy. It was just bad luck.

40:32Dave Helman: Kind of the issue to me with both of them is that there are too many mouths to feed in both. That's exactly what I was about to say. And if you're going to be a tight end, it's like that to me is just a little bit tricky. Even if like Colston Loveland, I come out of the season being like he's the sixth best tight end in the NFL. Statistically, it would be really hard for him to.

40:48Robert Mays: I think that's my problem is that it's hard for me to imagine the type of season where that would be possible. after Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers, Jacoby Myers had 129 targets. Who do you think was the third leading target getter on the 2024 Las Vegas? How many do you have? It was Trey Tucker. How many targets do you think he had? 57, 81. Okay. After that, it's Alexander Madison and Amir Abdullah are fourth and fifth. That is not the case on either the bears or Colts offenses. Unfortunately,

41:14Derrik Klassen: can I interest you in a slightly less long shot that I'm pretty excited about? Yes. Travion Henderson.

41:20Robert Mays: I think Travion Henderson.

41:21Derrik Klassen: that one. Omari and Hampton deserves mention as well. I'm just, I'm a little less excited about that with Rashawn Slater being hurt. Travion Henderson, if the Patriots approach anything resembling their ceiling, he just, and like, I think he'll be the dude in that offense by midway through the season. And I just imagine, I imagine him being a guy that pops up on red zone all the time where it's like, Oh, he had a 45 yard touchdown. Oh yeah, for sure.

41:47Robert Mays: His ability to capture the imagination is very strong. It took 10 seconds into his NFL career for him to be the story of NFL social media.

41:56Dave Helman: If Henderson is good, people will immediately be like, that feels like watching Jameer Gibbs and people will gravitate to that.

42:02Robert Mays: Defensive rookie of the year. Again, this is the one where I just had zero imagination whatsoever. Dave, we'll let you start with this one. Who is your pick for defensive rookie of the year?

42:11Derrik Klassen: So if you were actually listening to this for tips and like if we just wanted to nail the prediction, is anybody in NFL media going to go against Abdul Carter? Like sure. Like it's not going to be me.

42:24Robert Mays: Travis Hunter has the second best odds to win this award. We don't even know. We don't even know how much defense is going to play. Mike Green has the third best odds to win this award. So just season you think Mike Green would have to have to win a voted upon award. And this is a wonderful point. You would have to have like 30 sacks. Yes. Okay. Jalen Walker is, has the fourth best odds. I'm not going to go to Falcon. who is a may play for one of the worst defenses in the league and his switching positions and has been banged up for most training camp. Mikel Williams has the fifth best odds. He has not played for a huge chunk of training camp for a defense that we have no idea how good they're going to be.

43:00Robert Mays: There just aren't that many obvious options. And so that's why I went with Abdul Carter.

43:04Derrik Klassen: I think this is one of those ones where like we all we want to be creative and think outside the box. And sometimes you just got to call it what it is. And this is Abdul Carter's award to lose. I will say offensive rookie of the year was Caleb Williams' award to lose last year and we saw how that turned out. So like you cannot predict a season but going into it I think any other name is just wish casting. Like you're just hoping. Whereas like logically and with the situation that he's in, the talent's undeniable. You saw what he did during the preseason. He's going to have favorable matchups because of the talent on that front and with the amount that he's already in the national consciousness by virtue of being a top five pick like he only needs six or seven sacks to win this award and if he gets more than that it's over like if he has a 10 sack season forget about it did you have abel carter as well

43:58Dave Helman: yeah i did and it's like i think before the preseason games got kicked off i could like dream of worlds where it was someone else and i could like convince myself of like especially to abel carter came out of the draft being like there might be a little bit of a foot issue we don't know how healthy he's going to be. And then you see him play one preseason game and you're like, ah, well, it's very clearly his award to lose at this point. So it was not even interesting picking someone here. I felt the same way.

44:21Robert Mays: My long shot, again, same odds as my long shot for offensive player or offensive rookie of the year. I had Jihad Campbell. Same. I mean, you know, I would. I think, you know, if he has six or seven sacks and like kind of a strange role where he's getting to blitz a little bit more, if the Eagles defense is that unit, like the same way that it was again last year it's just easy for me to imagine the world where he becomes like a really

44:42Dave Helman: big talking point over the course of the season if you want to dig deep the only other one that i thought was like mildly interesting at plus 6 000 was like if the commander's defense is decent that to me requires trey amos being like a really good rookie out of the gate which i don't think is going to happen but all of the other long shots just don't feel very appealing to me or they're like these guys are hurt already like nick scordon i kind of like it plus 4 000 but he's already kind of been battling injuries so that one is like tricky to bet on yeah i think this is one where

45:11Robert Mays: there just aren't a lot of like out of nowhere type guys that end up winning it he's definitely

45:15Derrik Klassen: not out of nowhere but i like my long shot a lot at 25 to 1 will johnson the only thing the only thing i don't like is that he he plays for a team that doesn't get a lot of eyeballs like the cardinals are gonna have to be pretty damn good for him to win this award but we know that he fell because of injury he was viewed as a top 15 prospect i think the consensus big board that takes every ranking into account had him as the 13 overall prospect in this draft if he plays like that and the cardinals are good then i like that a lot and and he he got he had nine picks in college like he's a guy with ball skills so if he starts for a good cardinals team and picks off three or four balls and and arizona is like a surprise wild card team like i said my if i was really trying to make money off of this i would pick abdul carter but i like will johnson as a

46:08Robert Mays: as a sleeper i also think that there's a scenario where the cardinals defense is like a talking point over the course of the year sure cardinals defense is like a surprise unit will johnson has six or seven interceptions the ball skills that you mentioned i think that's actually a good one assistant coach of the year this one was really difficult for me this year i just it was because all the ones that i can understand it mentioned the cardinals defense like if the cardinals defense is that sort of unit and like nick ralas becomes like a talking point i i can see that but it's just i'm not willing to write it in pen yet that that's like gonna happen and so the units i feel best about there are a bunch of like complicating factors as to why this guy wouldn't win it their head coach their play caller is a head coach there's like they have an elite quarterback there's so many confounding things that made it difficult for me to have like a clear-eyed choice with this one Derek why don't you kick us off here who is your assistant coach

47:01Dave Helman: of the year for the 2025 season I do think in terms of like trying to pick the candidates it is a little bit more clear than coach of the year because coach of the year can either be like the best insane team or just like who's surprised a little bit I do feel like assistant coach of the year more often is just like the top three unit like you just pick one of the guys from a top three unit and to me if denver's defense is going to be that good i think that there's a world where like if if vance joseph takes this defense from like sixth to first and patrick sertan is crazy the pass rush continues to be the best in the league and they really are like a ass kicking almost win the division type of unit i could see vance joseph getting his flowers i'm gonna change my picks advance joseph there we go i'm glad i could tell you my picks vance joseph because i

47:45Robert Mays: I actually think that's really good because the other defenses that I think we're, we're in that conversation again, bringing back that we think they have a chance to be the best defense in the league. The Texans are coached by D 'Amico Ryan's who is that, you know, that's going to throw a wrench into that. The Seahawks are coached by Mike McDonald, the lions, the talent is obviously there. Calvin Shepard is a first year coordinator. I don't know how that's going to go. And the original pick that I had, I was like, Oh, maybe Joe Brady gets it. If like the bills, defense, bills, offense is the best offense in the league.

48:12Robert Mays: But when it comes to those like Ben Johnson winning it last year, I don't think he wins it if Lamar Jackson is his quarterback. But because Jared Goff is, I think that's where you get there with assistant coach of the year. So that to me was a barrier for somebody like Joe Barry winning it. So among all the ways I look at this, Vance Joseph is probably the best choice, even if defense is very volatile and hard to predict.

48:33Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I mean, that is a super logical pick. I guess in the interest of throwing out more names, I'm curious about Robert Sala.

48:45Dave Helman: See, this is the issue I had with the assistant coach of the year, too, because there were a lot of units where I was like, man, they could go from 20th to 9th. Does that win you the award? That was kind of what I was thinking. So I thought about Sala for that reason. I didn't have that many other candidates. Because even I think Chip Kelly falls into that, right? Yeah. It's like they could go from the 22nd best offense to the ninth best offense.

49:08Derrik Klassen: I don't know if that wins them the award. That's a that's a really good point, because I'm thinking about like Dan Quinn won this with Dallas when he came over from Atlanta. But Dallas was without looking at it. I know they were like a top three unit. Like, I mean, you got to be better than ninth or tenth. But Robert Sala had, you know, the narrative part of it is there, right, where he's like a much more known name. it would be a very obvious difference making hire where they struggled last year and they were good in 2025 the Niners if you know with the way they line up with their talent and their schedule if they win a ton of games like there's a lot of reasons to think it would work but he would have to coach them to better results than just middle of the pack to get there probably yeah so looking

49:50Robert Mays: at it the last couple defensive coordinators that have won assistant coach of the year Dan Quinn won it in 2021 the cowboys finished second in weighted defensive dvoa yeah in 2022 then demiko ryan's won it the niners finished first in defensive weighted dvoa in 2023 jim schwartz won it the browns finished third and weighted defensive dvoa they finished second in defensive dvoa overall so you essentially need to be a top three unit on defense by the end of the year in order to win this award and even if you feel bullish about where the niners can get do you feel that good about the ceiling of the niners defense it's hard i wish i did but no i don't so that's why i just i think the menu is like smaller than we want it to be because even the defenses they think oh this could be the best defense in the league it's a lot of head coaches

50:32Dave Helman: that are defensive head coaches the the only other one too i like if the ravens defense from start to finish is what they were at the end of last year like or could potentially get his flowers for that

50:43Robert Mays: too and how good do we feel about that i don't i if they play a better look at it i'm kind of like a better slate of offenses over the side like yeah it's i do think it's a little bit propped

50:52Derrik Klassen: up by that maybe um if if they don't drop off at all and if debo samuel is amazing for them cliff kingsbury cliff is a good one that's a good one that's a very good one he was definitely on my

51:02Robert Mays: short list of people that i was going to throw out yeah so i think cliff is a very good one because

51:06Derrik Klassen: if that offense is really good again and again you're i i think so much about narrative when i think about this stuff and he was a head coach he was in the college game like people know cliff kingsbury you don't like some of these guys it's like yeah do i trust all of the different voters who vote on this to figure out who this guy is and that he's doing a good job in time to win this award like because i think it's like a snowball and once you get to a certain point it's just easier to get this type of recognition and cliff kingsbury is obviously way past that

51:36Robert Mays: point we just i mean cliff kingsbury if you look at the ben johnson prototype when it comes to how you pick a guy to win this where a guy there was a good offense before still isn't like one of the mvp level like top five at top three top four quarterbacks we'll see where jayden lands but right now probably isn't that's what the ben johnson formula looks like there's aren't that many guys who follow that like archetype in the nfl period anymore like if you look at this a lot of guys are either play calling head coaches or the best offenses in the league have truly elite quarterbacks where the role of the assistant is diminished when it comes to that so it just there aren't that many guys who like follow that blueprint anymore but cliff kingsbury is absolutely one of those guys like Zach Robinson would be another one potentially if Atlanta is like the fifth best off like that there just aren't that many of them anymore and so it's hard to pick an offensive guy because I think the pool is just pretty small right now new one this year very excited about this protector of the year first time we will pick this Derek what are you going with obviously this is the new award that essentially celebrates the best offensive

52:41Dave Helman: lineman in the NFL in a given year yeah this is one where like he probably won't win it because the quarterback is mostly celebrated on this offense but like deon dawkins like is a really interesting one i think he like kind of resembles a lot of the development that this offensive line has had in the sense that like he's been the only guy that's been good for them even when the rest of the line was bad and the fact that he's been such a stabilizing factor for them i think is like a pretty big part of it i think the bills offense in general is just going to be really good again and then with dawkins specifically and i don't know if this is really even going to apply to protector of the year but like to me it kind of should he's a very unique player in the way that his splits work like he is he plays so much wider from his guard typically especially on passing downs than other guys which I think allows the pocket to be a little bit bigger for Josh Allen and give him more obvious ways to to maneuver around and so I think that uniqueness is kind of pretty special and should be celebrated in whatever way and so I think if we could like I think I'm imagining like I am assuming the protector of the year award is going to go to like Trent Williams or something like a very obvious name but in my mind it should be someone who kind of has like a unique flair to them the way that Dawkins.

53:45Robert Mays: I mean, he's the person that made the award thing. And so that also plays into it as well. It's hard because with a lot of these other awards, Dave, we at least have some history when it comes to how the narrative impacts the way the award is given. We have nothing about that. So there's nothing to go on in terms of who we think will win it and why. Okay, that is true.

54:04Derrik Klassen: But and I'm so happy about offensive line play getting recognition and we're making strides in this type of stuff every year. But when you talk about honoring offensive linemen, we always joke that like once you reach a certain point, like the top dogs stay on top. Right. Like if you reach that point, Lane Johnson is a great example where it's just the all pros snowball.

54:27Robert Mays: And you just Johnson is my pick for protector.

54:29Derrik Klassen: Well, that's perfect because I had the same thought process. Different idea. I laughed when you said it. I said Trent Williams. Yeah, I do like as much as we might get excited about a lot of young tackles. And a lot of guys, I still think like Lane, Trent Williams, Panay Sewell, like you need to.

54:49Dave Helman: Those are literally the first three names I thought.

54:50Derrik Klassen: I mean, you've got to play at a high level. And again, like you've got to reach a certain level of notoriety where like everybody who watches the game understands the importance that you have to your team.

55:01Robert Mays: I think because it's the first one, we might be more inclined as a voting body. I don't have a vote. They might be more inclined as a voting body to make it like a lifetime achievement award. Sure. Right. And so I think Lane Johnson is right now, currently, I think the best offensive lineman in the NFL. And I think because he has been, he is that and has been that for such a long time. I do think this could be the type of thing where it's like, because with Zach Martin retiring, it feels like Lane Johnson and Trent Williams are kind of in their own little category right now. It's like the mainstays that are still at the top of their positions.

55:31Robert Mays: And so that's why I think one of those two guys to me makes the most sense. And because Lane was the best guy in the league last year, I'm going with Lane.

55:37Derrik Klassen: I would take Lane or Trent against the entire field of every other offensive lineman in the NFL between I mean they are still that good don't get me wrong but they also just have that cachet and those resumes and and that's the thing is like to the point of what

55:50Dave Helman: you said about snowballing this is so dumb about Deion Dawkins now that we're like eight years into his career but like he was not a first round pick in the way that all those like elite tackles usually are first round picks and so I think we tend to gravitate to those guys and so even if Dawkins is actually as good as those guys there is some element of like Penesual was just the sixth overall pick like four years ago.

56:09Robert Mays: Let's get to MVP. I typically have a guy as we do all of our preseason content where I'm like, this will be the guy pick for MVP at the end of all of this. And I just didn't really have that this year. We mentioned at the top, just to me, a lot of the confounding conflating factors that play into not having a clear choice going into this season. Dave, we'll put you on the spot first. Who was your MVP for 2025?

56:32Derrik Klassen: I appreciate that because I hated coming to this conclusion and going through my notes to get here. I felt like the Charlie Kelly meme where he's like gesturing to the map of shit on the wall. That's me trying to tell you why I think Joe Burrow really could win MVP. And like, I'll just double down on it. Really? I hate to say for lack of a better choice, because that sounds like a slight, but really like I have to do some mental gymnastics to get there for obvious reasons. The Bengals are a very flawed team. So let me walk you through my reasoning for this. When healthy, Joe Burrow is a 4 ,500 yard, 30 plus touchdown player.

57:10Derrik Klassen: His career interception rate is 1.8%, which is right there with Patrick Mahomes. It's one of the best in the NFL among active players. I think only Aaron Rodgers is really substantially better than him. And obviously Aaron Rodgers hasn't been playing like that for a substantial amount of time. So right now we can assume very confidently that if he's healthy, Joe Burrow is going to throw for 35 plus touchdowns and probably 12 or fewer interceptions he had 43 and nine last year he had an mvp case last year by the way like he played at that level the bingles defense wasn't good enough if they win one or two more games i'm not saying he would have surpassed lamar or josh he certainly would have finished third in voting behind saquon barkley like he really was that good now the conspiracy part of this is i'm relying on voter fatigue a little bit yeah i'm relying on part of why it's hard to pick somebody this year yeah it is i mean lamar has won two he had a case last year and i it's not fair i would have voted for lamar last year i don't have a vote i would have voted for lamar last year even as much as i love josh allen but i think voters are gonna have a hard like it's gonna have to be so indisputable for voters to put lamar into that

58:20Robert Mays: three mvp category because i think there are years where the voter fatigue would give lamar maybe a little bit of a leg up on Josh Allen this year. I think because of how muddled it was last year, there's a chance that the actual vote doesn't matter quite as much where it's just like, oh, Lamar just won it. You know, I bet there are people who are going to vote be like, oh, Lamar just won MVP, even though he didn't win it last year. And so that I kind of expect voters to

58:43Derrik Klassen: be leery of Josh and Lamar for that reason, where it's like, it's like a double voter fatigue. Leave me out of this. So naturally it's, it's easy to say, okay, well, Patrick Mahomes is sitting right there and if Rasheed Rice hadn't just taken a six game suspension I might have been willing to get there with Patrick Mahomes but I kind of want to see the Chiefs offense be back to its old explosiveness before I just assume that that's going to happen and then so then I sit there and I think okay am I really dumb enough to pick a quarterback who's probably not going to win his division to win MVP there is precedent for it and you don't have to go back that far Peyton Manning in 2008, one MVP as the five seed in the AFC, the Colts lost the division that year to the Tennessee Titans when they had CJ2K and they won 13 games.

59:29Derrik Klassen: Now there's a very huge, huge caveat. Tom Brady tours ACL in week one of that season. So one of the huge contenders to win MVP was not part of the race, but Peyton Manning still won MVP as a five seed. And so if the Bengals offense is as good as I think it's going to be, and this is like an 11 win team and Joe Burrow puts up those kinds of numbers, you combine that with the voting fatigue. And, and also I think people will say, he's clearly that guy. He's clearly, you know, he's right on that tier with these other three and they all already have their awards. Let's give Joe his award before he gets any older.

1:00:09Derrik Klassen: And yet like, please don't, Oh, well we're not doing video anyway but please don't comment on my lsu tattoo i have removed uh partiality as much as i can in this conversation i think it it makes sense other than the one stretch is them probably not winning the afc north but i do think joe's numbers can be good enough to get there good

1:00:30Robert Mays: you're right the bangles had like a competent defense in 112 games like that absolutely can

1:00:35Derrik Klassen: happen it's hard it's just hard to get there when we know how bad the defense was last year and and trying not to overvalue preseason, but they didn't give us any confidence that it would be better during August.

1:00:46Robert Mays: I agree with everything you said about the case. I just when you look at the history of it, you have to be a certain level of team to have an MVP or to produce an MVP. And I just worry that the Bengals can get there.

1:00:56Dave Helman: This is literally like how I feel about Max Crosby or like earlier, like that is the player who is of quality to do it. But until the team, I feel like there is a world where they can win like 12 games. But going into the season, And that is not a team I am picking to win 12 games. So it's kind of hard for me to get there as well. That's kind of how I was too.

1:01:12Robert Mays: And I went through the exact same thing with my homes too, where I was like, oh, I'll just give it to my home. So I'm not giving one of those other guys. And it was still hard for me to get there. Derek, who was your pick for MVP in 2025?

1:01:21Dave Helman: This was, I, I'd like throughout all of the voter fatigue stuff. I don't care. Like if I look at the case and think about how good the team is going to be again and how good the player is, I'm just going to pick Lamar Jackson. That's what I do. There is no reason. The only reason that you would think that he can't do something. he's not going to necessarily go one for one for what he did last year because that offense was crazy but him getting to 92 percent of what he did last year the only thing that stops him from doing that is like some sort of catastrophic injury to some other player around him which like going into the season that's just not fun for me to make part of the calculus so if I just look into this thing like he has the same offensive coordinator the defense should help him out a little bit Derek Henry's still there offensive line still solid his receiving core is probably deeper now than it was last year if deandre hopkins has anything left in the tank and mark andrews is coming into the season healthy in a way that he was not last year like this is just why would i not pick lamar jackson and i do think the voter fatigue point is i think there's that side of it i also think there's the side of it that because he got slighted last year there might actually be on the flip side of like that's a very good point deserves it again actually that was

1:02:24Robert Mays: probably what pushed it over the line for me to eventually pick him is that it could go one of two ways when it comes to how the voters will look at it. It could be, ah, he kind of just won it or, well, he didn't actually win it and should have. So we're going to give it to him again this year. So that's why I also pick Lamar Jackson. It was just, it was hard for me to imagine a scenario where another team had the best offense in the NFL and the team's success that wasn't Josh Allen on the bills. And he's just not, he's probably not going to win it again.

1:02:49Derrik Klassen: And I think I I'll readily admit part of this. I don't want to say bored because I will never, ever be bored of watching Lamar Jackson play football, but you just, you look for something new, right? And so like, if you're not looking for Josh and Lamar redux, then Joe Burrow is a name that makes sense. I just, I do want to say this into a microphone while we're talking about it. If that stuff doesn't come to pass, Jalen hurts is like, if the, if the Eagles are as good as I think they're going to be and Jalen hurts, he doesn't even have to up his production that much but like if the Eagles passing offense is noticeably more consistent than it was last year if Jalen Hurts throws for 3 ,300 yards and 25 touchdowns and takes care of the ball the way

1:03:35Robert Mays: he did last year that I can't do that no under no circumstances am I gonna let somebody win an

1:03:40Derrik Klassen: MVP award if you went first for 3 ,300 yards again I think we gotta separate you cannot be the most

1:03:46Robert Mays: valuable player in the league if you throw for 3 ,300 yards we have to we have to separate like

1:03:50Derrik Klassen: could and should lay, I'm telling you it could happen. And I'm telling you a lot of people who vote for this award will care about that. If Jalen hurts throws for 3 ,300 yards, 25 touchdowns and five picks and rushes for 15 touchdowns and the Eagles go 15 and two, a lot of people are going to want to vote for that guy to win MVP. Like that's just a reality with the AJ Brown,

1:04:13Robert Mays: Barkley numbers.

1:04:14Derrik Klassen: It's hard to make the math work knowing what Saquon did for that team last year. so I get it but I'm like if the Eagles are as good as I think they're gonna be it will be a

1:04:25Dave Helman: very real conversation this is gonna be inflammatory and I understand I'm already the Jalen Hurts like skeptic when has the sixth best player on their offense ever won an MVP that's probably never

1:04:35Derrik Klassen: happened I don't know but I'm telling you it could happen I don't know 15 games I can't get there we got precedent for this obviously they didn't have Saquon and they weren't as prolific running the ball but he was second in the mvp race in 2022 yeah like that i also win with a flamethrower wins are wins are a big cure-all in these conversations whether that's right or wrong

1:04:57Robert Mays: is not the issue at hand i just don't think that should be the case i also don't i just feel like they're going to be guys playing at a high enough level over the like league wide a quarterback i

1:05:06Dave Helman: think you have to pick one of the four afc quarterbacks i tend to agree that's like kind

1:05:10Derrik Klassen: of the I yeah I just like I said I just want to put this on record so I can come back to it in December and remind you that this conversation took place I had two long shots that I wanted

1:05:20Robert Mays: to throw out there where it's like okay I could see the season unfolding in this way where this guy could win it Jordan love at 18 to 1 yeah I mean I feel like is if we have sure Packers have that sort of like a ceiling as a team the other one I would throw out there because again I think that their ceiling on offense is pretty high and if they're a team that because the schedule is not very good can get to like a 12 win place i know where it's pretty is 25 to one that's what i had yeah i mean i think those are both yeah i can see each of those seasons the versions of

1:05:48Derrik Klassen: the season unfolding that way i mean jared goff was in the thick of this conversation for a long time last year before he ultimately fell out because josh and lamar were that good too it's like if if the lions were to over and especially i mean if if they're as good as they were last year with ben johnson leaving i again i'm just thinking about like what are people talking about like narratively, I could see a lot of people talking about Jared Goff.

1:06:09Dave Helman: Because I think with Purdy, too, you can see the Niners. You don't always have to be the one seed to win the award. You can be like the second. And I think I can usually still apply the Niners. I can see getting the second seed. Basically, every other quarterback after this, I kind of struggle to see it. It's a lot of like Jared Goff has the same odds. So that could be it. But like Bo Nix and the Broncos, that that is not happening. Like Matthew Stafford, is he even going to play the season? Then you get like Drake May and Trevor Lawrence at forty five hundred. Like that's even if I want to be in on the Jaguars, it's kind of impossible to see that world.

1:06:38All right.

1:06:38Robert Mays: We're going to take one more quick break and then come back with our playoff picks.

1:06:45Robert Mays: We talked about these teams pretty much ad nauseum in each of the division previews that we've done. We're not going to spend a ton of time on these. We're going to run through them pretty quickly. Let's start with the NFC North. David, your champion in 2025 for the NFC North is who?

1:07:00Derrik Klassen: I feel like and it's not a criticism because I like them a lot too but we've talked a lot about the Green Bay Packers over the course of the last two months and as much as I love them I do I feel I just feel like there needs to be representation of the Lions on this podcast and so I'm not ready to give up the NFC North just yet I I picked the Lions winning the division though I do think it's going to be a dog fight and I don't think they will do it with as many wins as they had last year

1:07:29Robert Mays: there are three teams in the nfc north where if you told me that they either won the division won a wild card or did not make the play that that's not true there are three teams in the north you told me if they won the division i'd be like okay i like i have no issue with that whatsoever the lions the packers and the vikings i feel that way but all three of them so picking the i'm not going to be like oh wow you're picking the lions to win the nfc north that's hardly shocking that's completely fine with me i have the lions as a wild card team i pick the packers i don't feel great about it like i don't feel strongly about the packers being a better team than the lions in 2025 i just don't i just pick the packers because i don't know the michael parsons trade i feel like the lions could take a small step back with all the changes and i'm we don't know how good the quarterback for the vikings is going to be and so i feel like the packers have more continuity than any team in the nfc north when you look at the most important component pieces and they just added michael parsons so whether the lions are or the packers are a 12 win team and the lions are a 12 win team and they win a wild card i don't care like i just think it's so so close between those teams but i did end up picking the packers i mean you don't even have to ask me of course i picked the packers nfc east david who do you got i have the

1:08:37Derrik Klassen: philadelphia eagles winning it i think the philadelphia eagles are going to be the one seed in the nfc and earn home field advantage so obviously you got to win the division first i

1:08:45Dave Helman: also pick the eagles on the east i'm also with the eagles like they're three for three there's So you can see the upside case for all the other teams, but they're even the upside case for all the other teams is probably not as good as the downside case for Philly.

1:08:56Robert Mays: Yeah. And I, again, I think Washington's going to be a playoff team. I have them in my wildcard teams. I just feel like the Eagles are, have a chance to like Dave said, be the best team in the NFC and maybe the best team in the NFL over the course of the regular season. NFC South. David, who do you got? I got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I do as well. There was a point this season, this off season. I was like, Oh, maybe we get there with the Falcons. I feel good about the offensive line, but the injuries a tackle already, the concerns about the defense, like even if I do feel like the bucks have their own question marks and I think maybe I'm not as high on them as like a true Superbowl contenders.

1:09:29Robert Mays: I would have been, or I thought I was going to be coming into the year. I still feel like they're the best pick to win the NFC South.

1:09:33Derrik Klassen: I don't like them as much as I wanted to, but it's a long season. I mean, Tristan Wirfs comes back and starts kicking ass again. Then I'm right back on board, but I, yeah, I still,

1:09:42Robert Mays: if Chris art is good from the start, if some of the young guys could come in and tribute to the defense, like I absolutely think that they're, there is a world where the bucks can win like 12 games i i still feel like they're the safest pick in that division as well did you also have the buckster i also picked i wanted to pick the

1:09:56Dave Helman: falcons but there's something about right now staring at the offensive line that is like worry obviously the defense is also scary but looking at the offensive line the more it was i was a little bit worried about what there's just too much volatility there potentially where i think

1:10:09Robert Mays: the bucks bring you a lot more stability even with a new offensive coordinator nfc west dave

1:10:15Derrik Klassen: Who did you have? I got the San Francisco 49ers. I've been hyping them up. Juwan Jennings is back at practice. It's all coming together. People third and Joe on. I got the, I got the 49ers winning 11 plus games. Yeah. I have the Niners.

1:10:28Robert Mays: I have the Niners as well in the NFC West. I also have the 49ers. I will talk about the other NFC West teams here in a second. I like all the other NFC West teams. I just, the Rams with the quarterback. It's like, it's just hard for me to pick them to win a division right now. I know the Niners have their own question marks, But I just think the Niners are really prone for like, I think the Niners are really prime for a bounce back here. NFC wildcard teams. Let's just do all three of them at once for each of us. Dave, who were your three NFC teams in the wildcard?

1:10:56Derrik Klassen: So I think this is going to be a theme for us. I picked the Lions to win the division. I naturally have the Packers making the playoffs as a wildcard. I still really like that team. I wrestled with them for a long time, but ultimately I decided I just I want to have fun with the L.A. Rams. I want to believe that that version of the Rams is there. And I'd rather I'd rather it go sideways and say, like, ah, you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take. Then watch them be fun. And I'm stuck on the sideline knowing I didn't pick them. So I'm rolling with the Rams. And then my last one, I just decided to get weird with it.

1:11:31Derrik Klassen: I joked on the preview. The NFC South could have two teams and my seventh seed is the Atlanta Falcons. And I'm just basically hoping that Michael Penix is that guy. I have no issue with that whatsoever.

1:11:43Dave Helman: I mean, if he is that guy, like he's that team probably can win like 10 games and they can sneak in.

1:11:48Robert Mays: Yes. If the defense is like mildly competent, I think that's the other part of this.

1:11:53Dave Helman: So I, I want to start by saying that I think my NFC West take is that it's actually not that good of a division. It's just competitive, but I actually don't really love the ceiling for a lot of these teams. So I didn't put any of the other thing.

1:12:04Robert Mays: I think is a good point. I think all of them to me have like, I think they'll all be tough outs, but I didn't put any of them in. so i don't have any of the men other than the rams oh okay i didn't even put there i have the

1:12:14Dave Helman: lions as the that's again like whichever one you don't put in the division is a while that one's easy i quibbled over washington a lot and i still don't love this team but they're kind of my version of like the offense might be so fun that i'll put them in and then my seventh seed i'm almost doing this just to be a nuisance but i put in the chicago bears they are my like i kicked the rams out and i quibbled for a while over like which nfc i wanted which nfc team i wanted to put in and to me it's just like in the world where they do make the playoffs which team is the most fun for me to

1:12:46Robert Mays: watch it is probably the chicago bears i can't support that no i know you know i mean i logically do i understand how that happens yes i just i'm not gonna let myself go there and you you shouldn't but i don't have an emotional no you're fine that's what i can do i i just i think that there There are some of the other teams. I think the team that the fan base is going to be the most pissed off because none of us pick them to make the playoffs is easily going to be the Vikings. I don't think we have to retread this territory in the same way we have 40 different times over the last couple of months.

1:13:20Robert Mays: The quarterback question is enough of a question for me where it's like the three wildcard teams that I picked were the Rams, the Lions and Washington. I feel much better about the offensive infrastructure in those three places, even with a new coordinator in Detroit, than I do about a quarterback I've never seen play football before to pick him to make the playoffs. If there were, if this was a watered down field and it was like, ah, I don't have a 17. I feel good about, I'll just throw the Vikings in there. Fine. That's not how I feel about any of these teams. Like this is boring, but those are the three teams that I picked just because I feel better about their offenses than I do about any of the three teams I left off.

1:13:55Robert Mays: I easily because we see this all the time if there's going to be some movement I think the Cardinals can easily be a wild card team this year to talk about the defense being like a unit that takes a huge step forward the offense has been like a borderline top 12-ish unit for the last couple years I think the Vikings easily could make the playoffs for all the reasons that we've talked about and the other team I'll throw out that I against my better judgment picked as my last team in the wins pool because I do think that they have like a 10-11 win ceiling is the Seahawks i think the seahawks could potentially make the playoffs so those are the three teams that i would throw out if i was a braver person i would mention the carolina panthers in this discussion

1:14:33Dave Helman: sure if i were a braver person over over the bears or is that just like a purely i emotionally can't do that yes okay they're for you okay that's fair yes i'm just making sure i need to make clear

1:14:43Derrik Klassen: all right i think we did this at the top like at the beginning of the summer but like the saints and maybe the giants are the only teams in the entire nfc where if you tell me they're going to make the playoffs i'm like oh i look at the giants that actually helps my point because my whole point is just like look you have you got to pick seven teams if we left your team off i'm sorry but like i can see the case for basically everyone like obviously this the most of the teams in the nfc could could do something really fun this year it's so spineless but like

1:15:15Robert Mays: that's exactly where i am right now and i think the problem is like the depth with at which we've talked about all these teams, even in the previews, whatever I have forced myself into thinking about every permutation of every single version of all of these teams. And so I just, it's hard for me to be like, Oh yeah, I feel so good about team X winning 12 games this year. I just don't feel that way in the way that we've talked about the league for the last, however long. And so I just don't have a lot of conviction when it comes to this stuff. Let's get to the AFC playoff teams, Dave, kick it off.

1:15:45Robert Mays: Who's winning the AFC North for you?

1:15:47Derrik Klassen: I think I kind of outlined it in my Joe Burrow MVP case, but I've got the Ravens winning the division and a bunch of football games. I've got them as the one seed in this year's AFC playoffs. Same. They're going to win like 14 games. Nothing to add. Also pick the Ravens.

1:16:01Robert Mays: AFC South. This one's a little bit more fun.

1:16:05Derrik Klassen: It is, but I'm a coward. And like Derek and I talked about this before the show. There's so much room to look like an idiot. with this division because you could fall flat on you just wait oh no at the end of the day even with all the issues they're facing there's just more that i believe in in houston there's just more and i like cam word like we'll get to the other elements of this division but like i don't want to pick the jags to win the afc south and watch them win five games for some dumb reason this year like that sounds miserable so i'd rather trust that cj stroud and a top tier defense can get the job done even if they are flawed yeah i also picked houston i i think

1:16:47Dave Helman: actually houston i think is an underrated that is one of my last like things i want to say going to the season i think they're like an underrated football team i think so many things offensively went wrong for them last year and the offensive line still scares me but like i i still think this is a team that wins like 10 games it wins a division i want to be clear about this my like

1:17:03Robert Mays: text and skepticism in the seat of the table show was driven by two things one it was fun to like push back on everything you guys were saying and two this was about like super bowl aspirations the afc south and winning the super bowl are two very different things and so when it comes to the texas chance to win the afc south i feel okay about that i also picked the texans to win the afc south so they're plus 100 to win the division right now afc west dave

1:17:35Derrik Klassen: i will not pick somebody else to win the afc west until it happens like i'm gonna rock with the chiefs for as long as number 15's over there with andy yeah i've made that mistake enough times

1:17:44Dave Helman: i'm also picking the chiefs yeah i will never not be picking the chiefs so afc east this is the

1:17:50Derrik Klassen: easiest one for me also not picking against the bills until somebody in that division proves why

1:17:55Robert Mays: i should it's really funny that for a good chunk of josh allen's time is like josh allen the afc has been like a watered down division where there hasn't been much competition i think you could make a case that it's the worst it's ever been this year i mean yeah for like the vibes in miami

1:18:09Dave Helman: are not good like the patriots are gonna be better but the patriots being better is like winning nine

1:18:15Derrik Klassen: games exactly yeah probably but like we don't we never know for sure right like maybe there's a timeline where the patriots are that much better than even the optimists expect but i'm looking at

1:18:26Robert Mays: it right now who do you think has the best odds in the nfl to win their own division gotta be kansas city or buffalo right there's too many good teams in the west i think for it to be kansas city then it's got to be buffalo is it buffalo buffalo is minus 350 to win the afc the chiefs are minus 120 to win the afc west yep so i legitimately what are they like maybe the

1:18:48Dave Helman: eagles would be close in terms of but even those people probably yeah the nfc that's what i'm saying

1:18:53Robert Mays: even the isn't the divisions and the teams that we think are good your odds do not look like that because there's one other team that's a possible playoff team in your division. If you look at this right now, to make the playoffs, the other teams in the AFC West, their playoff odds, the Jets are plus 500, the Patriots are plus 145 to make the playoffs, which is actually better than I thought, and the Dolphins are plus 190. To even make the playoffs, the Steelers are plus 140. So even if your division is good and even if you're a really good team, you're just not going to have those sorts of odds to win the division is this cosmic retribution for

1:19:30Derrik Klassen: the way the patriots own i think that kind of does feel like it all right let's get to the afc wild card teams dave just give me all three so i got cincinnati as the five seed famous last words i said that last year too and we know how that worked out but i i do believe at the sixth seed. Tennessee Titans. I'm, I'm buying all the stock in cam ward that I can. I, it's more fun that way. And I really do like him that much as a player. The Titans have a better infrastructure than your average team that picked first overall. I like the line. The weapons are pretty good. The defense should be, the weapons are pretty good is where I have to draw a line in the sand.

1:20:11Derrik Klassen: The weapons are pretty good for a team that just picked number one.

1:20:14Robert Mays: They're not that good. Calvin Ridley is a good player. The weapons are not good.

1:20:17Derrik Klassen: Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard is a fine starting point for the team that just had the number one overall pick. That's all I'm trying to say.

1:20:25Robert Mays: We've said we did this last year with Caleb Williams. I think the difference for me when it comes to the supporting cast on paper being different, the offensive line talent is good. Bill Callahan is there, right? The infrastructure is different than Shane Waldron. If the talent on paper is one thing, we don't know what... We talked about this all last season when it comes to situations. Like sometimes you don't know what the multiplier on the coaching staff looks like for the offensive talent. I don't think we're all the way there with Brian Callahan yet. Even if you and I both have some cautious optimism about how that went last year, the bill Callahan part of this, I feel the bears skill position talent was what people were talking about last year to not get maximized because the coaching was bad.

1:21:02Robert Mays: The Titans offensive line on paper is a good group. And I feel good about bill Callahan getting the most out of that group. So that's why I feel like I feel a little bit more comfortable being like, yeah, the supporting cast is good for number one overall pick, even though we just did this last year and did it wrong. Sure.

1:21:16Derrik Klassen: I mean, so I'm running into the same obstacles year over year too, because I'm just trusting in the Bengals to find a way to win one or two more games. But it is what it is. And my seven seed, I agonized. And it makes a hell of a lot of sense to pick Denver, but I'm just trusting the law of averages that a lot of the playoff field turns over year over year. I'm sorry, Broncos fan. This is basically just playing the odds. and I wound up going with New England in the seventh seed. I got here's here's here's what it came down to. I'm agonizing over the pick and like Denver is the logical pick. Right.

1:21:55Derrik Klassen: But you're thinking like there's no way all the same teams are going to make the playoffs. That's just not how this works. And then I thought, Dave, you freaking loved Drake May that entire time. You wouldn't shut the hell up about this guy for like 18 months. and now they've done stuff around him that should give him a shot like why are you afraid to believe drake may could and like it's not like being the seventh seed doesn't mean anything it probably means they're gonna lose by 17 in the first round of the playoffs that's usually what happens

1:22:24Robert Mays: it was like whatever i need a seventh team and i just don't feel good about some of the other afc wildcard teams that stuck in last year like the chargers and so that's why i had the titans in mind so my three i did go with the broncos okay i have the bangles the titans and i picked the broncos okay so we were similar thought processes the broncos were right there and i just went for the new team yeah i i just don't feel that great about some of the other teams that's why it was easy for me to make the case for the titans because the chargers the patriots some of those other teams are gonna be right there on the fringe the steelers it's just i'm not enthusiastic about a lot of those i think the patriots could be good and competent this year but i just the idea of them winning 10 games is just it's hard for me to imagine this has big potential to bite me i'm not

1:23:06Dave Helman: I'm afraid to say that the only reason I don't think it's that crazy is the AFC wild card is filthy like it is disgusting that you really like with the NFC I really was like quibbling over like man who do I really want to kick out like kicking out the Rams like hurt that's why I didn't do it any with any of the teams I was like I'm just gonna go chuck because I don't feel good about

1:23:25Robert Mays: any of this when the AFC was much easier for me to throw the Titans in there with the AFC I just

1:23:29Dave Helman: didn't even want to bet on any of these I put the Bengals in just that feels like a free space they should probably get in if things go well for them. I picked the other AFC South team almost to just like, I feel like I'm just going to continue the bid at this point. But if the Jaguars, like if the Jaguars offense is like the 11th best unit in the league and the defense is like, so I don't think the defense is going to be good, but they do feel like one of those units where just a weird amount of bad vibes were surrounding them last year. And I just can't imagine it'll be that bad.

1:23:58Derrik Klassen: Bad vibes have been synonymous with the Jags for so much of the last. And I said a lot of this stuff last year,

1:24:03Dave Helman: which I feel bad about. So those are my two teams. And then I really, really, for the last spot, debated over Denver and Pittsburgh. I ultimately think I kind of want to put Pittsburgh in.

1:24:16Derrik Klassen: I do not feel good about it. I only want to pick the Broncos. Yeah, no, this is making me want to put Denver in the playoffs.

1:24:21Dave Helman: The Broncos thing runs very counter to what I said about Vance Joseph potentially winning assistant coach of the year. Because if the defense is that good, they probably get in. But like...

1:24:30Robert Mays: It's hard to know if the defense is going to be that good.

1:24:31Dave Helman: It's hard to know if the defense will be that good. And also with the Steelers, like I just I do think if we get to a world where by week 12, it's all completely boomed, it will not be that surprising. But there is some element of the like until Derrick Henry falls off, I'm not going to bet against it that I still hold for Tomlin to some degree.

1:24:49Robert Mays: I've made my Steelers thoughts known throughout the entire offseason. I'm not going to be clear. I feel gross about this.

1:24:55Dave Helman: I feel bad about our 17.

1:24:57Robert Mays: I wanted it to be way less chalky than I made it out to be. But as I went through it, I was just like, I don't feel good about any of the surprise teams I would throw on there. I just this is, to me, the most logical place to land. And I just am not feeling that spicy when it comes to playoff picks.

1:25:11Derrik Klassen: I just have to keep reminding myself that not even not even like Burgundy and Gold Times or whoever saw the commanders winning 12 games. Like no, like something is going to happen that even the smartest analyst forgot about. And that's just what I'm banking on.

1:25:28Robert Mays: But I feel good. The Titans are plus 425 to make the playoffs this year. The fact that I'm going to throw the Titans on there. I think that's that's plenty good. I also again, I'm a long shot playoff team.

1:25:38Derrik Klassen: I'm picking the Titans for the same reason that I'm rolling with the Rams where it's just like I just that will be a more fun season for me is like hoping that Cam Ward can be a new exciting quarterback. Dave, who do you have in the Super Bowl? As much as I overthought the order of all my playoff teams and how they might get there, my Superbowl is as chalk as it gets bird gang Ravens, Eagles, Lamar Jackson against Philly. And I just hope we get there. I hope we get a matchup that good.

1:26:09Dave Helman: I'm kind of half the same, at least Ravens over Packers to me is like, which again is double one seeds, but that at least in my mind, double one seeds, but like we have gotten a lot more double one seed Superbowls recently. So

1:26:20Robert Mays: I had the Ravens over the Packers as well. I could easily throw the Eagles in there, but I think the Ravens are the team that I just think that they're the best team heading into of the season. I think that if you look at what the defense did over the second half of last year and you look at what the offense is capable of, I feel like right now on paper, the Ravens are the best team. They finished number one in DVOA last year. Like they have that gear to them at the NFC is just, it was harder for me to like pick a team again that I felt convicted about. I think the Packers do have that sort of ceiling, but if you told me that the Eagles were a 15 win team in the one seat in the NFC, again, I would have no trouble believing that.

1:26:51Derrik Klassen: I really, I don't know if they get it done like winning two super bowls in a row is so hard and we've seen better teams than this eagles team fail to achieve it but i think i think this this eagles team could be special and and like the the team of the season and like last year the eagles didn't really put the league on notice until like halfway through the year uh i think i think this will be a wire to wire sort of situation for philly where they're that good from beginning to end and it's just a matter of getting the right breaks in the playoffs well that's all we got and all i know is none of

1:27:27Robert Mays: us will regret anything that we just said over the past half of this by week two at the latest but i feel good about it right now all right that is officially our last preview e prediction e show that we are going to do before we get into our regular season cadence tomorrow on the athletic football show. We will be doing a week one preview of sorts. We're not going to use the same treatment that we will for our in-season previews. We did the same thing last year. We're really just going to talk about 10 or so things that we're excited to watch in week one. A lot of the things that I know my answers are going to be this.

1:28:05Robert Mays: A lot of the stuff that we mentioned for teams when it was like, what do we watch in the first month of the season? That to me is going to drive what this week one preview looks like. It's really just going to be three or four things from every single one, from all three of us about what we're excited to watch in week one. I hope you guys are excited to watch that show. Things are going to look a little bit different on the athletic football show starting tomorrow. And we are very excited for you guys to take a look at that for the first time. A lot more information about that coming tomorrow.

1:28:34Robert Mays: Excited for you guys to all hear about it for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

1:29:17Dave Helman: We'll be right back. at AmericanExpress.com slash Explore-Gold. Terms and points cap apply.