2026 free agency doppelgängers

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1:44Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. Started things off with a little Trent McDuffie news. Trent McDuffie heading to the Los Angeles Rams for just an astronomical amount of draft picks. I understand it for both teams, though. Makes sense for the Rams and where they are. Makes sense for the Chiefs. We dug into that at the top of the show. And then me, Dave, and Derek remembered some guys today. We wanted to do some historical comps. And by historical, I mean, I don't know, most of them are over the last four or five years. But I think it's a fun way to view free agency, just trying to think about players in this class and talk about the archetypes they compare to from free agency groups before this.

2:23Robert Mays: So this can be a good thing where this is the optimistic case for what this guy can look like. This can be a bad thing, as we'll get into today. The history of free agency is littered with a lot of guys getting a ton of money in it not working out. So today it's historical comps for the 2026 free agent class. Let's get into it right now.

2:48Robert Mays: I'm very excited about today's show because guess what, Dave? This is going to give us a chance today to remember some guys. And that's all I ever really want in any podcast we ever do is just to spend an hour remembering some guys.

3:01Derrik Klassen: Isn't that why you get into podcasting? Isn't that why you get into liking football? Like that's the meat of the whole thing. It's like, ah, 2011 Darren Sproles. What a guy.

3:11Robert Mays: That's what we're going to do in part today. We wanted to look at this year's free agent class and try to find some historical comps just in terms of archetype, like guys that maybe play the same position and slotted in a similar spot in the hierarchy of their position as we were hitting free agency. I think some of these examples will be positive examples. Some of these will be the way that this could work out. I know that at least some of mine are potentially dangerous examples where this could not work out. So Derek, we, we joked yesterday, who was the player yesterday that you couldn't, that there's no way that you remembered him?

3:48Dave Helman: Oh man. I don't know now. See, now I'm already not remembering it again. Oh yeah, come on.

3:53Robert Mays: So I assume that your historical comps may not go back as far as ours, unless you were remembering, you know, the Michael Turners of the world when you were in second grade, like you claimed to be yesterday.

4:01Dave Helman: I didn't go quite that far. I tried to limit my window to like, I think 2021 is my earliest signing that I have. I'm trying to keep it to like modern NFL here.

4:09Derrik Klassen: I went into the Wayback Machine a couple of times, but it's funny you say that because looking through this, A, I had a great time remembering some guys and some heinous free agency deals. And B, once you go past like 2018, it starts to not even feel like the same sport. Like when you're talking about the amount of money being thrown around.

4:30Robert Mays: Yeah, I did always go, I just very quickly on my phone, for example, one of the guys I'm going to talk about, DeMarcus Ware in 2014, right? So I just look at DeMarcus Ware's AAV, I say 2014 NFL salary cap, do a little bit of division, find that percentage, times 301, and that gives me my 2026 AAV. That is the very complicated process that I go through. It's just so funny to see very good players

4:55Derrik Klassen: getting contracts that are the totality of the contract is like a salary in 2026. It's silly how much the cap has jumped over the last 10, 15 years.

5:05Robert Mays: I mean, it's doubled since like 2010. It was 155 million in some of the looking and some of the things I was looking at a couple days ago. Now it's 300 million. So we're going to dig into that today. Like yesterday, we're going to have to start this show. And by have to, I mean, I'm thrilled to start this show with some massive breaking news. Trent McDuffie on his way to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for the 29th overall pick this year, a fifth round pick this year, a sixth round pick this year, and a 2027 third round pick. That is a ton to give up for the Rams. That being said, I understand it for them and I certainly understand it for the Chiefs.

5:45Derrik Klassen: If I thought it was a steep price to pay, I felt better about it when I heard that other teams were trying to get in on this. The one, the team that you've heard linked is the New York Giants specifically. And so if you're fighting off other teams, you got to sweeten the pot. And if you are, who better to sweeten the pot than the team that feels the very finite window of opportunity like the LA Rams, where it could be 2026 or nothing. And who gives a shit about a 2027 third round pick if we're trying to get Stafford one more ring?

6:15Robert Mays: Derek, your initial thoughts on this. Try McDuffie heading to the Rams for that sort of haul?

6:20Dave Helman: I think it's good for both teams, actually. And I know that it's a huge haul, but it's like this is the value of having the extra first round pick and having acquired that stuff is that you can kind of wield it this way where you can overspend a little bit, so to say, to get a player like this. I will say I think my initial grade on it for the Rams is a little bit conditional on where they play him, because in my mind, I've said this a number of times before, Trent McDuffie is a significantly better player out of the slot. He's a solid to good starting outside corner. He is one of the best nickels in the league.

6:51Dave Helman: And it gets complicated with the Rams a little bit because obviously they have Quinn Lake, who has done really good in that role. But they all the Rams also have Cam Curl coming up into free agency this year. So I kind of think that there's a world where they move Lake back to safety to replace Cam Curl. They have their starting safety duo now, and then they move McDuffie to the slot. I don't know if they want to do that. But to me, to get the best DBs on the field in their best spots, that's kind of the best way to do it, in my opinion.

7:16Robert Mays: They also play as much dime as almost any team in the NFL. Right. So if they want to have almost like a Devin Witherspoon sort of role where he's inside, outside, I think that's a potential possibility. Is there a world where Cam Curl plays safety in some of their nickel and base looks, and he moves to that second inside corner when they play some of those dime looks? I'm with you, though, because he has been best on the inside, and Cam Curl or Quentin Lake, that's where Quentin Lake played last year, and they just gave him an extension. And so I assume he's going to play on the outside simply because of the contract that he's apparently getting.

7:51Robert Mays: I mean, if you look at the initial reports, it sounds like he's going to be getting a market setting deal at outside corner, which you almost have to when you trade this amount for a guy. And so my assumption is he plays a little bit of both, but I almost think he has to play outside considering what they gave up for him and what they're going to end up paying him.

8:08Dave Helman: He probably does, but I'm just like, if you're with you, it's just why I like the deal.

8:14Robert Mays: for KC. Like he, he is a good player. He is not a better corner than the guys making money at the top of the market right now. He was like an elite slot player. He is a good outside corner. And so if you're the chiefs, you do this a hundred times out of 100. When you think about the hall that you just got back and also what you've done at that position specifically, like their ability to consistently find playable guys because of what Spags does and what Dave Merritt has done their defensive backs coach. Even if you think Trent McDuffie is a really good player, what you just got back for him, you have to make this trade.

8:52Robert Mays: And if you're the Rams, I think that thought process is correct. The Rams right now have$181 million in 2027 salary cap space. And it's because this is it. Like you have Devontae is going to be off the books that year. Stafford's going to be off the books. Like you are pushing it all in right now. And so in a vacuum, the value, the Chiefs win this thing going away. But I understand the thought process and how the Rams land here.

9:17Derrik Klassen: And the crazy thing is the Rams could give McDuffie his extension and extend verse and a bunch of other, a bunch of the other homegrown guys. They're going to at least have a chance to keep curl. I would guess like they have so much money, they can do this and still with the huge exception of you have no long-term stability, a quarterback, like you can hold on to anybody else you want to. I didn't, obviously, I didn't even mention Puka. He's going to be in line for a huge extension. With the amount of money that they have and the lack of long-term investments that they have, like you can do all of that over the next year or two, which is really exciting.

9:53Derrik Klassen: My one thing I wanted to say, and I guess for where they are now, because the decisions have been made, I think this is great for Kansas City at this moment. But does it sit weird with you at all that McDuffie's the guy getting shipped off and George Karloftis and Nick Bolton got major extensions? Like in a vacuum, wouldn't you rather have the corner? Or is hindsight too much 2020? It's a good question.

10:19Robert Mays: I think the linebacker question is probably a good one. Derek shouldn't answer this because I know about his feelings about Nick Bolton. But for me, I think with Kansas City specifically, and even just I'm kind of this way about corners in general right now, like you have the guys at the top that are like the true kind of elite players. I don't think there's that many of them. I think those guys are probably worth paying. We've seen one, two steps down from there over the last three or four years. The market at this position get depressed compared to what it used to look like. And I'm just not sure McDuffie cracks like that top upper echelon of guys where you want to give where you want to devote this amount of resources to him.

10:57Robert Mays: This to me is like about opportunity cost. If he was going to want$27 million a year,$25 million a year, and you'd have to give him that plus a first and a third round pick over the last couple of next couple of years. That to me is like, it's not even a conversation. Like what you could do with all of those resources, if you're the Chiefs, considering what their ecosystem has looked like on defense and with that position, I just think you have to do it.

11:23Derrik Klassen: And I do think you can get in trouble thinking this way because all it takes is miss on a draft pick and screw this whole thing up. But with their track record drafting and developing DBs, I understand if their confidence is sky high that they can find the next one.

11:37Robert Mays: Well, you get Jalen Watson back for half, right? Let's hypothetically, let's say you do something like that where you can say if McDuffie is going to make$30 million a year, can you get Watson back for 13 to 15 million dollars a year and now you have a first and a third round pick over the next two years to play with like I just think that is the right line of thinking if you're the Chiefs

11:57Dave Helman: in this scenario and Dave you can tell me if I'm wrong I finally started digging into the corner class a little bit it's a pretty good class for corners and so if you're Kansas City and you kind of think you're resetting anyway and you don't want to pay top of the market for a cornerback like Trent McDuffie now that you have two first round picks maybe you feel a little bit better spending nine on like a Mansoor Delane or whoever you want to pick, or maybe you want to wait a little bit back into the first round where it's like when you only had that one top 10 pick, maybe you didn't want to spend it on a quarter.

12:24Dave Helman: Maybe you thought you had other needs, maybe tackle whatever it is. Now I feel like they have flexibility in a good class to reset at a position that they've consistently drafted and developed pretty well.

12:33Derrik Klassen: I would agree with that. I like I like the cornerback options. I think if I were a Chiefs fan with everything we know about what they need, they're cutting Jawan Taylor. Obviously, the offense has been lacking in juice for quite some time. I think it'd be a little annoyed to turn around and potentially use a top 10 pick on a cornerback the year that you have a top 10 pick. But now you don't have to. Wait, why? Now you can use the 29th overall pick on a quarterback. In my mind, I'm thinking like that's a position where I'm trying to get my bang for my buck. Like I like my odds of addressing that problem at nine more than 29.

13:08Derrik Klassen: That's not to say you can't do it, though. That's a fair point.

13:10Robert Mays: I mean, it seems to me, like based on everything that I've seen, like running back, some of the receivers in the back half of the top 10 pass rusher, like you could do all of that at nine and then try to find a corner in the back half of the first round.

13:21Derrik Klassen: If Chris Johnson could hang out for me to pick 29, or at least close enough that I could trade up for him, that'd be pretty cool. I mean,

13:30Robert Mays: you're looking at it right now. I mean, McDuffie's already off the books right now as I'm looking at over the cap here, but even, you know, with him gone and then the cutting Juwan Taylor, are looking at like$26 million in space. I assume they'll be able to move a little bit more money around. Like they'll be able to spend a little bit if they want to. And I'll be curious where they end up doing it. I'm sure we'll dig into that a lot over the next couple of days.

13:48Derrik Klassen: I do think considering, again, like the money got spent, Bolton and Karloftis are under contract for where they are right now. I like this move, but if I could go back in time, I wonder how I would prioritize that.

14:00Robert Mays: All right, let's dig into these. There really was no direction that I gave you guys when it came to this. It was essentially just, let's look at the 2026 class. Let's go back however many years you want to. Derek, most of mine are from the last five or so years, but there were also somewhere I was like, we'll see if there's something maybe a little bit deeper into the league history that actually aligns here. So I have a couple of those. But Derek, why don't you kick us off? When you were looking at this group and you were trying to figure out, who does this 2026 free agent remind me of in terms of archetype over the last several years?

14:31Dave Helman: who came to mind for you so i think i have a couple of ones that are like really easy and then a couple of weird ones we'll get to the weirder ones later i think one easy one parallel to draw and we actually already talked about this player yesterday drew dolman obviously got a huge deal last year to go and fix the bears offensive line and i think with the with the bills currently not bringing back conor mcgovern he feels like the guy who is going to do that for some team going into this future whether it's a team like the raiders who have a ton of cap space and really need to fix their offensive line quickly.

15:01Dave Helman: The Titans, the Chargers, like these teams that they really need somebody in the middle who can help the quarterback, set all the protections and really have this cascade effect on the rest of the offensive line. And then we'll see some sort of jump with the offense. Connor McGovern feels like the guy to me, like somebody is going to spend a lot of money and we're going to be like, man, that for a center. And then he plays at a really high level and changes that offense. Yeah.

15:24Robert Mays: I think it's the team that misses out on Linderbaum. Like that's going to be the consolation prize potentially and if if that number and that money falls somewhere close to like what dolman got last year would you be surprised at that i wouldn't be i don't think

15:37Dave Helman: so and honestly the only reason i didn't pick tyler linderbaum for this and maybe i'm just like getting a little bit too far ahead of myself i am working under the assumption maybe a wrong assumption that the ravens find a way to get that done obviously they'll have to make a bunch of moves to kind of figure that out but in my mind mcgovern is going to be like the best actual

15:54Derrik Klassen: center like actually on the market it's funny to think that mcgovern's already done that before like mcgovern's a third contract player which is kind of weird to think about he's only 28 years old um he's he's entering his year 29th season but the bills bought relatively low on him coming off of his rookie contract and he exceeded that and i won't be surprised if he lives i i think his next deal will be bigger than what he was playing on in buffalo but i won't be surprised if he plays up to it.

16:22Robert Mays: So I had one that is kind of a, like one step off of there. I had a guy that could be 2023 Connor McGovern this year. Somebody that is, gets paid in free agency, maybe in a way that we didn't necessarily expect, but as a second contract player. And this team had a good offensive line infrastructure, but I think that going to Buffalo, we got a better version of Connor McGovern than we probably got in Dallas just because what Aaron Kramer was able to do with like anybody who walked into that building is just really exceptional. And so the guy I had for that, where second contract player, if he goes into a better situation, is he going to look like, all right, that's starting guard money.

16:59Robert Mays: Dylan Parham in 2026 as 2023 Conor McGovern, where he maybe makes a little bit more than you think. It was a terrible situation with the Raiders. And if he goes to a decent spot and we look at that contract and be like, all right, like that's what you pay for like a starting caliber guard. So I had the opposite side of the Conor McGovern conversation.

17:17Dave Helman: I thought you were sending out something for your guy, Cade Mays, there. A guy who's like... I have a different Cade Mays one.

17:22Robert Mays: The Cade Mays one is way more irresponsible than that.

17:25Derrik Klassen: Any relation, by the way?

17:26Robert Mays: No, no relation whatsoever. I have a Cade Mays one because the one I found, I was like, oh, this is maybe a little aggressive, but I actually do like it.

17:36Derrik Klassen: I'm going to stick with a guy that I already mentioned. We already mentioned talking about the Rams Chiefs trade. And it's more than just the name. I think Cam Curl reminds me of Cam Bynum last year. Like similar age, obviously Cam, you know, Cam had a contract with the Rams again. He's not coming off of his rookie deal. But I think probably gets lost a little bit in the the totality of the Rams defense. I mean, they play so much time. They have so many DBs. Obviously, the front does what it does. I think it's hard to single out anybody. And I felt the same way about Cam Bynum when he left Minnesota.

18:14Derrik Klassen: And I don't know if Cam Curl gets as big of a deal. That's what I was going to say. I mean, Cam Bynum got paid last year. He got a very nice deal. I don't know if Cam Curl reaches that level, but I do think Cam Curl will get a nice payday. And leaving that ecosystem, I don't blame anybody for saying like, oh, well, will this be repeatable? Will you be as good? Because I'll be honest, I was curious about that for Cam Bynum, and I thought he was excellent for Indianapolis. The money amount might not be the same, but I do think Cam Curl will get a nice contract. And I think he can absolutely play up to that at his next stop.

18:51Robert Mays: We talked about this yesterday. I will be so curious where these numbers land for this safety group specifically. Because you look at it, Cam Bynum got$15 million a year last year.

19:01Derrik Klassen: He was one of the guys where even if you like him as a player, I was surprised by that dollar amount.

19:06Robert Mays: So you look at it from last year. I'm just running through the list right now. Just at safety alone, in last year's free agent group, we had one, two, three, four guys make$13 million a year at safety. I wonder how many safeties we see crack$13 million a year total in this free agent group, because we talked about it yesterday. It's not a top-heavy group, but there's a lot of depth to it, and listen to Building the Beast today. There are a million safeties in this draft and a million safeties that did well in Indy, And so how much the top of that market gets depressed for the Brian Cooks of the world, all of that.

19:44Robert Mays: I wonder how many bargain type contracts we see with the safety group and free agency.

19:49Derrik Klassen: I'm just guessing based on my experience watching this happen, I would guess there will be a small handful of guys. And I think cam curls one of those where teams are willing to pay you like, OK, you are good enough. You clear the bar that we will give you a pretty sizable contract. And then I think there's going to be a logjam of guys where it's like, let's wait and see who we get in the draft. Or we're going to short you on the offer a little bit because we're confident that we can find somebody with one of our big picks.

20:18Robert Mays: If you had to pick one safety in this class, Derek, where I'm paying$50 million a year and I feel good about it, who would that be?

20:25Dave Helman: I don't even know. I really don't like the safety classes for agency right now. um because like i i know at the top like brian cook is there i'm not really interested in brian cook at the amount of money that he is probably going to command um man who else is kobe brian

20:41Robert Mays: is up there jaquan brisker cam curl like see i love cam curl but like in in my mind you're

20:47Dave Helman: probably yeah not paying him like actual top of the market money i think the one that i could most foresee like outplaying the amount of money that he's going to get to me is jalen thompson of the Cardinals and the reason being is that every now and then we get these players who let's say like two years before they go into free agency they are a pretty good player on a pretty good defense and then that defense as a unit kind of starts to fall apart and we just forget that this guy is good it feels a little bit like Jalen Thompson is going to fall into that mold and that he could kind of be like not a bargain like he'll command a decent amount of money but outplay the three or four guys who were getting paid ahead of him.

21:25Robert Mays: I've always kind of liked Jalen Thompson. I would like to see him do well in a different spot. All right. What's your first one here, Derek? Your 2026 free agent that you think reminds you of somebody that has hit the market over the last few years.

21:37Dave Helman: I'm going to stick a little bit with the DBs and I'm going to go with one that was good and then bad very quickly. But I think that this could work for the team that it's going for. So I would Jamel Dean, I think is one of the more interesting corners in this group. He is approaching 30. He has a pretty big injury history. And I think given all of that, given the way that corners age, all that stuff, maybe you only get one or two years maximum out of his like top, top end play. The Philadelphia Eagles did this with James Bradbury in 2022. And it immediately

22:07Robert Mays: I was circling this one.

22:08Dave Helman: I like this a lot. It immediately shot them into like, oh, this is a Super Bowl caliber defense. And then obviously they fall just short of actually winning it. And then they pay Bradbury again right after that because he'd only signed a one year deal deal initially. And then he starts to fall off because of the age, obviously. And so I could totally see a team that is close on defense going and signing a guy like Jamel Dean and then boom, pop. He's really, really good for them. You wonder what it starts to look like when he's 30, 31, 32 years old.

22:36Robert Mays: And the interesting one with Dean is, and with Bradbury, the Eagles signed him to that one-year deal. And that one-year deal was, he played fantastic on that one-year deal. and then I think they were willing to let him go and they didn't. And it was a huge mistake. And so with guys at this exact age, there's that really tiny window where if it was that one-year deal, it would have been a massive hit. And because they re-signed him, eventually there was a little bit of buyer's remorse. So how does that fall with Jamel Dean, right? Like if you give him two years worth of guarantees, can he give you two good years?

23:08Derrik Klassen: I actually have him on my list, so I have to get this out of the way right here. It's hard to say if it's a one-to-one. Obviously, Dean's injury concerns could have a lot to do with his market, but I think you have to bring up Carlton Davis when you mentioned Jamel Dean because every single thing about their careers is the same. Are people outside of the Tampa Bay fan base aware of this? They were drafted the same year? No, no, no. It goes so much deeper than that. They're both from Florida. They both started out going to Ohio State and both wound up at Auburn. they were both drafted on day two a year like in subsequent years subsequent years that's by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers they started for the Bucs in the Super Bowl they both got second contracts in Tampa Bay they both are free agents uh at the at the age of 29 uh Davis I mean Davis got traded to Detroit so that's the one little difference but the the way these guys careers have followed the same arc is nothing short of eerie.

24:09Derrik Klassen: So if somebody offers Jamel Dean three years, 44, 44, 54 million, am I supposed to be surprised? Not based on the way this has all gone so far.

24:19Robert Mays: It's an interesting one. I mean, if he gets paid based on what he did last year, it would be a really hefty contract. If he gets paid with some of those injury questions in mind, obviously that's going to depress it a little bit. So we'll see where that ends up next week as things really get going. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back and chat a little bit of news. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. March includes International Women's Day,

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27:56Robert Mays: breaking news across the timeline as we are sitting here recording stefan digs released by the new england patriots he had an additional six million dollars that was set to become fully guaranteed on friday or next friday i think might have been the third day of the league year that would make sense by releasing him the patriots save 16.8 million dollars in cap space gets them to about 56 or so uh for the year that's not effective cap space obviously you're paying your rat picks everything else let's call it 50 ballpark so it's a decent chunk of change to be saved here Derek at the same time he was a very useful and very important piece to the Patriots offense last year and so you save a lot of money you also have to replace his production if you're going to make a move like this so they will have to replace him but

28:45Dave Helman: I actually I think this is OK. You got out of the Stefan Diggs signing what you wanted, which was we need to microwave the offense, give Drake May a guy in his second season and see if we can get him on a good development curve. And I think especially for the first like 12 weeks of the season, that really worked out. And Diggs was playing at a high level. Their chemistry was really good. I do think because as an older receiver coming off the injury, he did not scale into the season as well as he could have. Like I think things started to wane a little bit as we got towards the end into the playoffs, back half of the season, all that stuff.

29:18Dave Helman: And so I think they got what they wanted out of the signing. It's definitely going to be hard to replace him because they don't really have that many other talented receivers currently on the roster. So it's going to take a lot to do that. But I think they got what they wanted out of the deal to get out of it, move on, go into whatever this next era is going to be. I think that's totally fine. I think this was a win kind of top to bottom for them.

29:38Derrik Klassen: I go as far as to say it's pretty perfect. Like you got exactly what you wanted and needed out of him. You're getting out at a good time. You're saving money by doing it. And, and I mean, I get your point, Derek, that I mean, good receivers are hard to come by, but they already had cap space. So what they were at roughly 40 million in cap space. And you said they saved 16 million, 16. You have all the money you need to do whatever you want. I mean, it's very fun to think that this is them like adding to the war chest for the Alec Pierce sweepstakes, but whoever it is, I mean, there are players you can find.

30:14Derrik Klassen: There are, I know we said yesterday that we don't love the receiver market, but I like any receiver that lands with Drake May a hell of a lot more automatically. And so like, you'll have options at all price tiers available to you. You can draft a guy. And again, you have an MVP candidate who's like 23 years old. I think this is wonderful timing by the Patriots.

30:35Robert Mays: Derek you can send Alec Pierce to Tennessee to play with Cam Ward or New England to play with Drake to play with Drake May where are you sending him so I I earnestly do think that Cam Ward like

30:47Dave Helman: stylistically fits a little bit more just because Cam Ward has he did not lose any of the willingness to like I'm just going to throw this thing up and see what happens so I do think that that might be a little bit more fun but because the Patriots we already have proof of concept that they're good and we can see that duo actually do something and win games it's got to be tennis or it's got to be New England.

31:06Robert Mays: So Stefan Diggs at a$26.5 million cap hit. That was the 11th highest among all receivers in the NFL for 2026. The list is a fascinating collection of players. Michael Pittman is fifth at$29 million, which is why there's a chance he's not on the Colts next year if they end up doing something with Alec Pierce. DJ Moore is sixth at$28.5 million. Decent chance he's not on the Bears next year. George Pickens is ninth on the franchise tag. T. Higgins is 10th. Jamar Chase is 13th. Diggs and Calvin Ridley are the two players squeezed right between them. It's honestly, like I said at the top, like it's so well done by the Patriots.

31:50Derrik Klassen: Like when you buy in on Stefan Diggs, you're like, this is a player that comes with extra news cycles. He's coming off of an injury. He's on the older side of things for a wide receiver. Is this going to be worth it? And he did exactly what you wanted him to, and you're getting out. You're getting out. I mean, obviously, you didn't win the Super Bowl, but he helped you achieve a level of success that was well beyond everybody's expectations, and now you can try to get younger and try to do this the way that you would prefer. All right, who's up? You up? I can be. So actually, let's just do this now since we're talking about wide receivers.

32:28Derrik Klassen: It's not a one-to-one comp, but it's not a player, period. I wanted to look and see more about the Alec Pierce situation and who this applies to because, like, I get it. Guys sign for silly money every single free agency, and, like, guys that come to mind off the top of my head. Obviously, Calvin Ridley signed a really big deal a couple years ago. Christian Kirk was another one that caught a lot of people by surprise. But even those deals, they're not that close to what I think Alec Pierce might do. The history of receivers at free agency is weird. It is weird. That's what I found out last night.

33:05Derrik Klassen: And I also had a hell of a fun time looking back on guys who have signed deals like this. So if we can assume that Alec Pierce signs for 30 plus million a year, if he hits 30, which I think he will, he's going to be a man.

33:18Robert Mays: I mean, like, remember in October,

33:21Dave Helman: whenever it was like, Alec Pierce is going to make$20 million a year. Oops. Well, also with 30 million, like, I know we're talking about the cap changing, but it's not that long ago that quarterbacks were barely cracking over 30 million. So the fact that we're there with receivers, it's just like crazy how fast that happened.

33:36Derrik Klassen: That's what I was trying to say at the start of the show, which I'm going to illustrate here. So, all right, let's game this out. If Alec Pierce signs a deal worth 30 million or more, he'll be 7 '8 among receivers in AAV. Yeah, without you getting cut. Yeah, it's just behind Amon Ross St. Brown. Depending on how high the price goes, like if he could get up to like 33 million, and maybe that's pie in the sky, but I'm sure he and his agent are going to try. He could get as high as like, he could get into the top five. I think that is in the realm of possibility. So what's interesting about that is we just, we have not seen that many free agents come that close to the top of the market in terms of AAV.

34:14Derrik Klassen: Obviously, length of deals are different. Guarantees are different. It's hard to quantify all of that, but for my purposes, I'm just looking at AAV. Would you like to know, or maybe you already do because you're good at your job, over the last decade plus, guys who have climbed as high as sixth in the hierarchy of AAV going back, I went back to - At receiver? At receiver specifically. I went back to 2010.

34:38Robert Mays: Did Kirk get there on his deal? He did not. Okay. So the one I would throw out, did Kenny Galladay? Kenny Galladay. Wow. Which is not exciting. if you're in the Alec Pierce sweepstakes. So I know it's a mean one. That is the comp that I had for Alec Pierce. And I like Alec Pierce as a player, right? But if you are solely looking at the history of free agency and the types of contracts that are handed out in free agency, the best comp for Alec Pierce in this group is Kenny Galladay in 2021. And they're similar players too,

35:09Dave Helman: like the big strider catches stuff out big outside the numbers in the air. I wasn't happy about it. Yeah.

35:15Derrik Klassen: Okay, can I try to dig this out of the ditch? Because there's two more. I want you to because I like Alec Pierce. There's two more I wanted to say. They're not that great. They're really not.

35:24Robert Mays: I'm telling you, it's not a good history.

35:26Derrik Klassen: There are no good free agent wide receivers at the top of the market ever. And again, I'm not talking about the size of the deal. I was only curious about AAV because otherwise there's just too many variables. In 2018, Sammy Watkins signed with the Chiefs for three years, 48 million, putting him sixth in average annual salary at the time. Now, if you go look at it, and this is where I had a good, like, remember some guys moment, because once the Chiefs become a dynasty, it just sort of crystallizes on what Tyreek and Kelsey did for them. And obviously Mahomes and Spags and all that stuff. Sammy Watkins, unquestionably disappointing relative to the size of the contract.

36:08Derrik Klassen: Yes. He balled in the playoffs for the early Chiefs. Sammy Watkins was a huge piece of the first Super Bowl and as somebody who's not like day-to-day invested in the Kansas City Chiefs I had a lot of fun just going back and being like oh shit he did have like three great playoff games in 2019 I would have never remembered that if I hadn't done this exercise

36:29Robert Mays: so Sammy Watkins that was 2017 okay he made that was 2018 he made 16 million dollars a year in 2018 was a shitload of money as you're referencing it was a big contract okay let's go through the highest paid receivers in free agency since Sammy Watkins in 2018. 2019, Tyrell Williams, four years, 44 million from the Raiders, which 11 million was a lot different in 2019 than it is now. Following year, post-Niners Emmanuel Sanders made$12 million a year to go to the Saints. 2021, Kenny Galladay, four years, 72 million to go to the Giants. 2022 Christian Kirk $18 million a year to go to the Jags 2023 OBJ one year $15 million to go to the Ravens okay the biggest multi-year deal that I guess DeAndre Hopkins was on a multi-year deal so that was$13 million a year to go to the Titans and then 2024 we have Calvin Ridley four years $92 million $23 million a year

37:31Derrik Klassen: I've got one more guy for you who did crop top he got into the top six with his AAV all the way back in 2013. Mike Wallace. Oh, wow.

37:41Robert Mays: So the free agent, Tony, the free agent history of receivers at the top of the market is very poor.

37:48Derrik Klassen: I will say very poor. I'm not really making my point here. Mike Wallace, of the three guys I highlighted, had the best stint. Mike Wallace as a dolphin. He got a five-year$60 million deal, which the fact that top of the market for a receiver was a$60 million contract in 2013 is crazy. But in his two years with the Dolphins, he had 1 ,800 yards and 15 touchdowns, which is, I mean, it's not enough. It's not what you wanted when you gave him that deal, but it's certainly better than what Gallaudet and Watkins did over the course of their contracts.

38:22Robert Mays: So again, I did not feel good about the Kenny Gallaudet thing, but if you look at the history of the position, you just laid out all the examples. It is probably the best recent comparison for the market that Alec Pierce is going to get, even if I like Alec Pierce as a player.

38:34Derrik Klassen: That's, it's, we talked about it yesterday where we were like, you know, I don't even include Alec Pierce in the, in the receiver market because the price is going to be so exorbitant. And it sucks because I do like him as a player. And I do think there are a handful of places where he could be really fun, but the track record is not encouraging. It's really not. I would not want to be handing a contract like that out if I were, if I were in this position.

39:00Robert Mays: So let's keep it in the 2021 free agent wide receiver group as I try to come up with another comp here. I have two players that I'm going to throw out for Romeo Dobbs. One, as I think this is how it would work out. Two, this is the downside of it. Romeo Dobbs as Jacoby Myers in a better situation, right? Like if we've dropped Jacoby Myers in a non-Raiders scenario, if he's just in the Jags offense from the beginning for$11 million a year, that is a good contract. And I do think Dobbs in the right situation could look like Jacoby Myers did this year for the Jaguars. Like, I do think that is a possibility.

39:38Robert Mays: Or is Romeo Dobbs 2021 Corey Davis?

39:41Dave Helman: That actually, so I almost put that comp down. I think that that is really, really good. Because as I was going through and looking just at like previous, you know, FA classes and stuff like that, I looked at the Corey Davis deal and I was like, there's got to be a receiver in here who like feels a little bit like that. Where like the big bodied, oh, he'll just be like our big possession guy. and he'll win on some of these third downs and he'll be our chain mover. And then the Jets signed him and he was just never really that again, the way that he was at certain points in Tennessee. And so I kind of think Dobbs is better than that, but it's hard not to see that that could be a good comp.

40:13Robert Mays: Here's why I like it, because I think similar to, we don't think of the 2020 and 2019 Tennessee Titans as a great offensive situation. Oh, they were so good. It was. They were like one of the best offenses in the league. They were incredibly good and incredibly efficient. And again, I think the Packers weren't the best offensive league over the last two years. But I think objectively, the Green Bay Packers is a very good offensive ecosystem in which to be a player. So I think there's a similarity to that. And if you look at the numbers, so when Christian Watson was back on the field this year, he had like a 23.5 % targets per route run number.

40:48Robert Mays: Romeo Dobbs was down to 20. That's almost the exact same gap as the gap between A.J. Brown and Corey Davis on those Titans teams where, so you're kind of like a, you're a number two receiver, even though you're still extremely productive, but because there's a guy who's maybe a little bit more important to the offense and it's a good ecosystem, that to me sometimes feels like how we run into problems with wide receivers and free agency or just players in free agency in general. So I see a world where that happens with Dobbs in the wrong scenario, but I also see a world where he works out. So I had like two different ones depending on landing spot.

41:21Derrik Klassen: I've been thinking about Dobbs a lot, probably because we keep talking about him and I like him as a player. I get it. But I've been thinking about him specifically. And I said this on yesterday's show, but I just keep going back to it where it's so fun to imagine him joining your team on what you think of as a friendly deal. what if Romeo Dobbs again in a world where like the top 10 receivers all make 30 million dollars a year and like 25 million dollars a year isn't even something to bat an eyelash at anymore what if Romeo Dobbs signs like a 100 million dollar contract next week is like is that insane that feels crazy I mean his stats tell you that he's not worth that but he he turns 26 next month he'd like he's he's got four years of production like if if I so Jacoby Myers just signed a 20 million dollar a year deal right that that's that would be the comp that you could make in terms of

42:19Robert Mays: like the types of players who could make 20 million dollars a year receiver Romeo Dobbs is a prime

42:23Derrik Klassen: candidate for me where in the weeks leading up to free agency you're like yeah I'd love to have Romeo Dobbs and you're thinking he's like a middle tier free agent and then on Monday evening you're just like he got he got what I think your hope would have to be it's just the inflation markup

42:39Robert Mays: on the Darnell Mooney deal from a couple years ago I think this is good though because the wide

42:42Dave Helman: receiver market is weird in general but then after Alec Pierce how many of the second contract wide receivers are you really going for like maybe Jalen Naylor who maybe we'll end up talking about

42:50Robert Mays: but there's really not a lot we'll talk about him tomorrow yeah okay there you go like there's just

42:54Dave Helman: not a lot of those second contract receivers so I could totally see the market kind of playing up half a million today, another million tomorrow.

43:02Derrik Klassen: If you need a receiver and you don't want to be in the Alec Pierce sweepstakes, it's Romeo Dobbs and then some guys who are either too close to 30 or on the other side of 30. Dobbs is right in that sweet spot. If you need a starter, he's the best thing you got that's not going to be$33 million a year. Do you want to hear my next mean one

43:23Robert Mays: while we're talking about those soon-to-be 30 guys? Yeah, go ahead. What if Jawan Jennings is Rams Allen Robinson? No.

43:30Derrik Klassen: Wow. That's a great one. I think that's... I don't like the mean ones. I want to believe the best in everybody right now.

43:36Robert Mays: Slight dip in production, age 28 season, going to be 29. We're like, oh no, he'll be okay. And then he gets there and it's just a nightmare. I don't want that to be true, but that was the first name that came to mind when I think about the idea of like Jawan Jennings making like$18 million a year in this free agent class and it ending like that. Like, it's not crazy to think about.

43:57Dave Helman: it's not and the thing I'll say that like this will get us to the same end point with Allen Robinson but I do think like the small difference is at least Allen Robinson like was a number one receiver at some point so I get why we kept buying it yeah the reason I would be scared of Juwan Jennings though is that he's always been a very particular role player in the Niners offense which is great and if he gets signed to do that somewhere else maybe it could still work but if they like want to expand his role at all or expect any more from him than what he's been asked consistently in San Francisco, that a little bit feels like you could end up overpaying for a guy who, like you said, is creeping up on the wrong side of 30 there.

44:32Robert Mays: All right, do you guys want to hear my Cade Mays one that I was really excited about? Yes, please.

44:37Dave Helman: I've been waiting for this the entire show.

44:40Robert Mays: It's probably not going to be this amount of money because this guy got paid more than I assume Cade Mays is going to get paid, but I think there are some similarities here. I think if you look at the actual AAV and you do it for what the cap is, Cade Mays would have to make like$15 million a year to make this comp work. And I don't think it'll be that much. What if Cade Mays is Bucks Ryan Jensen? Oh, that's fun.

45:04Dave Helman: I can kind of see that.

45:05Robert Mays: Guy who didn't play early in his career, had like one full year as a starter before he got that big contract, big physical. Again, Ryan Jensen got$10.5 million a year in 2018. I don't think Cade Mays' market is going to look like that. But let's say Cade Mays gets$10.5 half million dollars a year now. So it's not quite in the same tier. That to me was like the optimistic spin where like, what if he's 80 % of Bucks Ryan Jensen?

45:31Dave Helman: And that's just perfect stylistically. I love that one too. And there's also a little bit of NFC South connection here. I'm super into this one.

45:38Robert Mays: Underrated piece of those Bucks teams. He was awesome. Yeah. Ryan Jensen was a phenomenal center. I mean, again, and so if you look at Ryan Jensen's history as a player, when he was in Tampa, or when he was in Baltimore, he did not play a ton over those first couple of years. So in, when he was in Baltimore had nine combined starts in his first three seasons and then started 16 games at center for the Ravens, his final year there before getting that deal with, with the bucks. So kid may is kind of similar, right? Like he wasn't a starter from day one in his final year, that deal, the same way that Ryan Jensen was, but was essentially a starter for almost this entire season in his last year of his deal.

46:17Robert Mays: And again, I think stylistically there are some similarities there. Like that's a rich comparison. If he ends up hitting that, they're throwing a parade for whichever team signs him. But that was the one that came to mind.

46:30Dave Helman: God, that's good. I've been itching for the Cade Mays on the entire show. I knew that was going to be your guy. So we had to see what you had up.

46:36Robert Mays: I just like big f*** you centers. Because there's not that many of them. It's usually guys who are undersized. So I was talking to somebody that was in the market for him and that like would be looking at him. I don't think he's going to be somebody that's going to be like, taking everything off of your quarterback's plate when it comes to the mental side of things, which is obviously a consideration that you'll have to take into account whenever you're signing a center. But again, just like from the physicality, he's potentially bringing to the middle of your offensive line. I like that one. That was one of my favorite ones I found.

47:05Robert Mays: I've got meaner ones.

47:07Dave Helman: I'm going to get us away from the meaner ones, but I do have... I was looking for nice ones.

47:12Robert Mays: The problem is I liked doing the receivers and there are no good receiver ones. And so that's where all the mean ones are.

47:18Dave Helman: Right. Totally. I had, I had true to form. I have a mean linebacker one. I'll get to a little bit later, but I want to have a lot of linebacker ones.

47:24Robert Mays: And I, I almost don't want to say them because I wish I would have run them, run them by you first.

47:28Dave Helman: Oh, that's good. Well, we got to get, we'll do a couple of them live and see how, see how they hold up. I'm sure we both have a Devin Lloyd one there somewhere, but I want to go to a more one that feels like a boring signing, but I think we'll go well for whoever this team is. And it's actually a cross position comp. last year Robert Spillane was like a kind of like boring mid-tier at his position guy that when he was on the field for the Patriots kind of glued their defense together their run defense was awesome when he was on the field he was pretty good in pass coverage he just when he was on the field the defense was better it communicated better it was he glued it together I kind of feel like at tight end K-Dotten can do that for somebody where he's like really good in the run game for you.

48:10Dave Helman: He can block a little bit. He's a safety valve for your quarterback. He glues everything together.

48:15Robert Mays: Just let him go. The Robert Smillane, Cade Otten cross positional comparison that's happening right now. Only a few people in America could do this and you just got to let him go.

48:25Derrik Klassen: This is potting at its finest.

48:27Dave Helman: That's I just I was like, man, who is I? Because I was trying to look at Cade Otten. I was like, man, I feel like he's going to do something for somebody. But you look at all the like other previous tight end signings and it's like it's either guys that were only really like these niche role player blockers or it's the guys that often end up being like, you know, just like your super pass catchers. He kind of is in the middle. He's like a true why that's going to really hit the market. And he can, like I said, like a Robert Spillane, glue your unit together and kind of keep everything on the tracks.

48:53Robert Mays: You know, this is a weird one, but it's almost like it's Colby Parkinson, but only this year, not the first year of the deal, like only this year, Colby Parkinson.

49:02Derrik Klassen: 100 % I like how we land on different conclusions I don't like to say that I don't like players Because I like Cade Otten But he's a prime example to me of Like okay but what's the cost Like I think we talked about it yesterday Like I like Cade Otten But if his price gets out of control Because he's one of the best available All around tight ends I don't want to be in a position where I'm the one paying Cade Otten You know eight figures Or like whatever Oh, really?

49:31Robert Mays: You think that's too much? So just for comparison. I would just rather find a discount somewhere else. All right. Okay. So here's what I would say. Okay. So the last couple of years, the two guys I would throw out where it's like, I can understand him getting paid in this general range. I don't think it's crazy. Both Jake Ferguson and Cole Komet make$12.5 million a year.

49:52Dave Helman: That's exactly where I was thinking. Like that to me is like, if you're paying him what you're paying Jake Ferguson, I think I'm pretty happy with that amount of money for Kata.

49:59Derrik Klassen: It's funny because Jake Ferguson has had his fair share of frustrating moments over the last two years. But I still think of at his best, which it's fair to argue he hasn't been at his best for most of the last two seasons. But like I think of Jake Ferguson as a more dynamic downfield option. And do you think I'm off base with that?

50:19Dave Helman: I don't. But I also I do wonder a little bit like what Kate Otten might be able to look like as a like vertical middle of the field threat with a with a quarterback who I think is a little bit better at throwing the middle. of the field like Baker Mayfield just hasn't done it in Tampa right like I would kind of be curious like what does a K-dot look like with a Dak Prescott style of course obviously you know Dallas isn't going to sign him but just somebody who's a little bit more willing and able to make some of those throws like over the intermediate 12 to 20 yard range I guess that's fair I probably yeah like

50:47Derrik Klassen: when I think about K-dot and I'm thinking about catching a lot of screens and not being as great of a blocker as I would prefer but like that's not to say you can't have a vision for him beyond that maybe I'm not giving him enough credit.

51:00Robert Mays: I'm looking at teams where Kate Otten would make sense and unfortunately for him the team that is jumping off the page right now because of what you know what actually a team that has a lot of cap space and I think absolutely could use somebody like Kate Otten is the Titans because right now you're looking at the Titans tight end depth chart Gunnar Helm because Chikin Conkwo is hitting free agency and that's been their problem over the last couple years is they really haven't had any tight ends that can give you anything as a blocker and so them just seeking out some sort of blocking a tight end I think makes a lot of sense uh Adam Traumman's hitting free agency for the Broncos like they're they're gonna need a skill set like that I mean you talk about throwing the middle of the field you don't want Bo Nix playing with Kate I mean you'd be driving yourself insane good point he's not really gonna solve the that issue there and then the other one and I don't know if they're gonna draft the guy but the the Eagles and Howie Roseman we're talking about this is Zach Berman at the combine how I think it was at either his Combine press conference or the availability he did with the Eagles B-Riders before they went to Indy, he was openly talking about how he was going to have to change or he wanted to change the way that he saw tight ends and the skill sets that he was seeking out.

52:07Robert Mays: Because if you look at it, where the Eagles history of drafting tight ends, but also signing them, it's almost always, outside of Goddard, it's like 240 pound pass catching guys. Kylan Granson's on this team, Grant Calcaterra, Zach Ertz. like though that's almost exclusively what he has sought out and that's just not what the position is on the best teams in the NFL right now and so them trying to find some sort of well-rounded tight end I don't know if they'd spend on it in free agency but I assume that's like the guy we've I've said his name 10 ,000 times on the show over the past year but like the Jackson Hawes type player I think will end up on the Philadelphia Eagles this year in some capacity in a way they've never really had a guy like that.

52:49Derrik Klassen: I'm always intrigued whether that's, and like, I mean, finding guys who are ready to do that, obviously Haas did it this year. You can definitely find them, but is it easier said than done to use a day three pick on that tight end or like spend a little bit more on a guy who's maybe not as much of a receiving option in your offense?

53:08Robert Mays: I kind of like the idea of using a fourth or fifth round pick on like that hype, like AJ Barner, right? Like AJ Barner to me is like, those are useful players right now. And you can spend a fourth round pick on AJ Barner, I think you feel pretty good about it.

53:18Derrik Klassen: I think most NFL teams would be happy to draft a day three tight end almost every year, even if it's not something that's going to get the fan base excited. All right, before we get to our last few here, we're going

53:29Robert Mays: to take one more quick break.

53:33Derrik Klassen: Hey, it's Adam Grant from Ted's podcast, Work Life. And this episode is brought to you by ServiceNow.

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55:03Derrik Klassen: All right, Dave, what's your next one? I feel like you haven't had one in a while. I'm curious to see if y 'all think I'm too low on this guy. And not to say, like, I think he's a good player. I'm just curious what his market might be. Boye Mafé reminds me a little bit of Dorrance Armstrong two years ago, where he's been a piece of a very loaded pass rush. The, like, the career statistics, like the body of work do not jump out at you, but clearly a valuable player. And, you know, I don't think he's going to get a top-of-the-market deal to rush the passer, but for reference, Armstrong signed a$33 million contract two years ago, like Boye Mafe for$40 million, like, I don't know, 10.

55:46Derrik Klassen: For three years? Yeah, something like that.

55:49Robert Mays: So it's funny because I was wondering where I wanted to put him because if you look at it, there's, to me, like, Hassan Redick was too much at Bent Wolf on what he got paid and his role within the offense. The Mafe thing, the guy I landed on kind of similar, where it's like it was$10 million a year before that, was like Van Ginkle. he's not as specific of a player but he can do a little bit of everything you can drop him if you need to and so him making like 13 million dollars a year to kind of play that sort of role within a defense that makes total sense to me

56:19Derrik Klassen: and Armstrong was the same way where he was on a front that had Micah and Tank Lawrence and so there's a little bit of hoping he can grow into a larger role because he never had to be the guy and like I said I don't think you're signing Boye Mafe to be the centerpiece of your front But yeah, 13 to 15 million dollars a year to be more of that guy than he has been to this point. I think that's what I would expect.

56:44Robert Mays: But yeah, I think that's probably where it lands. Maybe a little bit more expensive than that. But I just again, you get the tax of everyone having watched him in the playoffs. But I I think he will be a useful and helpful piece to the right sort of defense.

56:56Dave Helman: No, I think you kind of nailed the range because I feel like in a lot of cases with edge free agents, It's guys that you're either clearly paying at the top of the market, like the Trey Hendrickson's Jalen Phillips or whatever, or it's guys that you expect to be like pretty good rotational players for you, like a Kingsley and Igbari in this class. Mafé does actually fit into that like Goldilocks zone where it's like that's like a good number two starter, maybe high end rotational guy that you could be. So I'm into that comp, actually.

57:22Derrik Klassen: if I had a primary edge like if I had the guy and I added him to yeah be my two or be like the best three in the NFL I'd be pretty pumped about that

57:34Robert Mays: I've got two that we can do quickly one is very nice and one is very mean okay start with the mean one

57:43Derrik Klassen: so we have something uplifting at the end

57:46Robert Mays: what if Tariq Wollin is 2020 Trey Waynes

57:50Derrik Klassen: oh god okay so here's i haven't thought about that name in forever i maybe this is just like

57:58Dave Helman: a me thing i personally never thought trey waynes was good at all whereas like i do think reek woolen has had actually it's like some pretty high moments but i i think that's fair this is

58:08Robert Mays: again this is like these aren't one-to-one comparisons i think treacle has been a better player than trey waynes but it's like speed-based was never like you look at trey waynes's career in Minnesota, they did their best to never play him. It was very, it was back and forth. Like he was a first round pick, but he had to, he was the third corner in his first year. And so kind of the same with Wolin where like they, this, when this staff has come in, like they marginalized him a little bit. He was not a starter all year in the same way that Trey Wayans wasn't always a starter for the Bengals. And so I just think, again, this is the meanest possible outcome.

58:42Robert Mays: I think it will be better than this. But I think the Trey Wayans comp for me kind of explores the downside potential of what a like really big Tariq Wallen contract looks like in free agency.

58:53Derrik Klassen: That's such an it's a it's an interesting name to remember because like when you are a first round pick, typically like those guys live in our headspace for a long time because either you're good or based on your pedigree and your talent, you get a lot of shots in the NFL. And so for the most part, first round picks can kick around the league for a minimum of five, if not like a decade like you got. And so for Trey Waynes, I'm looking at his Wikipedia right now. Like he was done after that one year. He got that deal and then it was over and we never heard from him again. And so I swear to God, I don't think I've thought about him in like six years.

59:33Robert Mays: I, again, I do not think that is going to happen with Tariq Wolland, but I think that is like the sort of downside case we're discussing. Let's bring it back to the optimistic side. And I don't think this is going to happen to this extent, but if you're talking to yourself into how this could work, Trey Hendrickson as 2014 DeMarcus Ware.

59:50Derrik Klassen: Oh man, that would, I would love that. Cause that would be really fun. Cause obviously DeMarcus Ware did a lot for that Denver defense and they got to a Superbowl and like, it's crazy the way, you know, he was only in Denver for two or three years, but they embrace him like he's a lifelong homegrown member of their squad. So that would be a fun final act for Trey Hendrickson if he wound up in a situation like that.

1:00:15Robert Mays: So just some details here. Age 32 season is when they would be signing with their new teams. That's when DeMarcus Ware signed with the Broncos. That's what Trey Hendrickson will turn 32 this year. Obviously, Trey Hendrickson's career up to this point has not been DeMarcus Ware's career. For those of you guys who may not have thought about DeMarcus Ware for a while, fourth and defensive rookie of the year voting in year two, second team All-Pro, first team All-Pro, first team All-Pro, first team All-Pro, second team All-Pro, first team All-Pro, second team All-Pro. The first time between years two and seven that he wasn't an All-Pro was his last year in Dels.

1:00:49Robert Mays: He played 13 games, hits free agency, signs that deal with the Broncos, has 10 sacks in that first year with Denver, is a pro bowler. Again, the first eight years of their careers don't look the same, but if the final four or five did, where you have one final down year with the team that, with your previous team and then sign a new deal. DeMarcus Ware's deal was$10 million a year in 2014. If you look at percentage of the cap, that's like$23 million a year for Trey Hendrickson this year.

1:01:19Dave Helman: Which that's kind of what I assume the market is going to be. That actually makes a lot of sense.

1:01:24Derrik Klassen: Edge rusher is one of those positions where guys will play deep into their 30s. And if you're good, if you're of a DeMarcus Ware, Trey Hendrickson caliber, you'll see guys hop on with contenders year after year. And I think where is such a inspiration for those guys? Cause like, if you've still got the juice, even if you're not what you were, you can be a meaningful part of a very meaningful team. And I, that swan song for him in Denver, I think is, is a big inspiration for guys that are trying to do that. I mean, he was outstanding. It could go poorly, but again, like that to me is like the best way for every guy like I mean guys do this every year I mean I was trying to get pumped about Hassan Reddick in Tampa in August and I mean you know like it happens every single year not everybody's gonna have as satisfying an ending as tomorrow's where Dave makes you end with the

1:02:14Dave Helman: positive one and then you still end it with this could just be terrible like this could just be

1:02:19Robert Mays: worth acknowledging that when you're signing 32 year old free agents like the range of outcomes is very big.

1:02:25Derrik Klassen: I mean, I can't think of, and we have to talk about it and it's fun to speculate, but I can't think of content that will age more poorly, more quickly than us comping players and finding contract value like five days before the league year opens. And this is just about having a good time. Just remembering some guys, which we have definitely done today. Derek, who are your linebackers

1:02:46Robert Mays: that you had? I had a couple.

1:02:48Dave Helman: Yeah, I had a couple comps. So I'll start with, we'll kind of do the order you just did where I do the meaner one first and I'll do the one that I think is a little bit more fun after that Devin Lloyd this feels a lot like the Patrick Queen deal to me where I think some of like how Patrick Queen like was able to ascend is a little bit different but that final year next to a smart linebacker kind of feels a little bit similar to me oh I think there's what there's a more obvious

1:03:14Robert Mays: one than that are you gonna say Tremaine Edmonds are you gonna hit yes yeah see see but I

1:03:20Dave Helman: I don't know like I Tremaine Edmonds was better earlier in his career which made it a little bit different for me but in terms of just like body type what he is in theory versus what he is in practice I actually do think the Edmonds is pretty good as well

1:03:32Derrik Klassen: it's fine I actually I thought about putting Queen on here with Devin Lloyd as well Derek but and look Foye Alutakon's a good player I don't think it's a completely fair comp to compare that to Queen playing next to Roquan like Patrick Queen was playing next to the archetype. And I think that inflated his ability a little bit. I think I'm giving Devin Lloyd a lot more credit and Anthony Campanelli. I'm giving them a lot more credit for him finding himself. Whereas I love my guy PQ, but that's a situation where it's like, okay, how much of this is you and how much of this is the best linebacker in football?

1:04:09Robert Mays: The only, the other reason I was making that comp is Patrick Queen got$13.7 million a year in 2024. for. I think there's a chance Devin Lloyd makes a shitload of money on Monday. I'm like, so Tremaine Edmonds got 18 million a year in 2023. I'm not going to be surprised at all if Devin Lloyd makes 20 million dollars a year on this contract, which is a lot more than Patrick Queen got over the last couple.

1:04:30Dave Helman: And when he got that deal, that's just crazy to me. And because I think part of why I went with Patrick Queen versus a little bit of Tremaine Edmonds in terms of what they're going to command money wise and body type Edmonds makes more sense. The thing for me with Patrick Queen was like it was a one year at the end of his stint there. And it a little bit felt to me like when you're paying him, that was a guy where I'm like, prove it again, like do it again and show me that you can actually play at that level multiple years in a row. I kind of feel the same way about Devin Lloyd. And I do think he got better this year.

1:04:57Dave Helman: His ability to come downhill was better. He was a little bit cleaner in coverage, but I just some of the interceptions were a little bit lucky. Sometimes like I think we underrate how good the defensive tackles were for the Jaguars in terms of keeping him clean. I want to see it again before I pay him, and that's kind of where I get with the queen thing.

1:05:16Derrik Klassen: I do. Ultimately, at the end of the day, I'd be nervous to get into the bidding war for Devin Lloyd, but I do think he deserves more credit for finding himself without an all-pro amazing guy playing next to him.

1:05:34Robert Mays: I think a stabilizing force, though, is a good way of thinking about it, like a veteran guy next to you, Because Trey Adams is the same way with Matt Mulatto, right? Like having that guy next to you, I think can be helpful. All right. So I had two more linebackers. We can do these very quickly. Speaking of Foyaloo Khan, is Quay Walker Foyaloo Khan?

1:05:51Dave Helman: Oh, maybe. See, this is great because I was just about to say, wouldn't you rather pay Quay Walker like half of what Devin Lloyd is going to make and just have him? So if it's actually half, sure. It might be 70%. It might be a lot more.

1:06:04Robert Mays: So Aloo Khan got$15 million a year in 2022, which I, that's more than I remembered him getting. And, but I remember at the time, even though I was like, man, that's a lot of money. Like he was a productive tackler with Atlanta and that with Quay Walker, like he's a decent run defender. And like, you can see the, like the potential. And you, I mean, obviously it was a first round pick, right? This is a position where we see guys often come into their own, deeper into their careers. And so is there a chance that Quay Walker gets more than we expect him to? And he's the, you're paying him for his best football, I guess is what I would say.

1:06:38Robert Mays: Like I absolutely see a world where that happens, even if he's a little bit expensive because of the pedigree. And the other one I had, and this one might seem blasphemous, but stick with me for a second. And I'll, I'm going to stress the diet version of this. Is Devin Bush diet Demario Davis?

1:06:55Derrik Klassen: I, so no, I think Demario Davis a lifetime ago. So I bounced around a couple of different spots.

1:07:01Robert Mays: Like it didn't happen right away. He had to go to a couple of different teams. He was in with the jets. He went to the Browns and then to the Jets and then to the Saints. And obviously was the best version of himself with the Saints. Devin Bush, you have the bestie or tenure. That's a disaster. He goes to Seattle. He comes to Cleveland. He's played very well over the last couple of years. Like, is there a world where Devin Bush is age 27 through 30 is actually really good? Like a very diet version of what Demario Davis was.

1:07:29Dave Helman: So actually, in terms of like going down to like a step or two below in terms of player quality in my mind what Devin Bush can be if he can sustain kind of what he did last year it's very similar to like what I think Denzel Perryman has been over the last handful of years where he's kind of bouncing around as just this like this like one year mercenary one or two year like I'm going to mess shit up type of linebacker in very specific ways that that to me is kind of what I imagine as Devin Bush yeah I don't stylistically like I don't think they're

1:07:58Robert Mays: similar as players necessarily but I just think like that career and Demary Davis is a third round pick right and so it's not the same sort of pedigree but signed one year deals with the browns and the jets before going to the saints in 2018 and then if you look at it like he was a first team all pro in 2019 second team all pro four times from 2020 to 2023 he never made a pro before the 2019 season wow i can't imagine when he would have been and that's he would have been 30 He never had a postseason accolade until he was 30 years old.

1:08:32Derrik Klassen: Mario Davis was old seven years ago. I just, I love that idea. And I know you can get into trouble thinking this way, but I'd almost always, I'd rather bet on Devin Bush or the Devin Bush type player and hope that I can be right about that than the Devin Lloyd situation where you're just fighting with two or three other teams to pay at the top of the market.

1:08:57Robert Mays: And Devin Bush will be half of what you'd have. I would have. That one will be half. I don't think Quay Walker will. Yeah. A few more that I had. Is Isaac Salamalu just a left guard version of Kevin Zeitler now?

1:09:07Derrik Klassen: A hundred percent.

1:09:08Robert Mays: Isaac Salamalu is your free agent of the year. I know that. He just, that just to me, like, he's going to play left guard for one year for three teams over the next three years, and he's going to be good every time, and we're going to be like, when is this going to stop? So that one I had. Rashid Shahid as John Brown. 2019 John Brown. Oh, with Buffalo? Hell yeah. I hope so. I was trying to figure out what I wanted to do with Shahid. $12 million a year, vertical presence, reliable guy, not like the most well-rounded receiver, but as part of like a broader room can give you what you need.

1:09:42Derrik Klassen: It's funny. I remember we talked about it on trade deadline day. Like, I think Rashid Shahid is a better receiver than, or at least I thought. No, I still think. Like, I think he's a better receiver than just the burner return guy reputation gives him credit for. But we didn't see that in Seattle. And that doesn't mean that he won't have the suitors. It's a good season trade.

1:10:03Robert Mays: You have an offense that's already like solidified. Like I do think, and I think he's more than just a vertical guy, by the way. Like, I think he can give you more than that within an offense. But I think just like that sort of player, John Brown made$9 million a year in 2019. So a team paying Rashid Shahid like$12 million a year to kind of be that within their offense, even if he has a little bit more flexibility. I like that one. And then I have the one I feel best about, which is one of the meaner ones that I have. Wandel Robinson is 2021 Russell Gage.

1:10:32Dave Helman: I honestly completely blacked out Russell Gage making that amount of money until I looked it up the other day, but that's actually pretty good.

1:10:39Robert Mays: So he got, Russell Gage got$10 million a year for Tampa, but if you translate that as a percentage of the cap, it would have been$15 million a year in 2026 money. And I think Wandel Robinson is going to get more than that. He probably will. So Wondell was 50-50 slot outside the same way that Russell Gage was his last year in Atlanta. And I think to me, like my favorite part of this comp is Russell Gage was really productive during those years with the Falcons because there was no one else to throw the ball to. Exactly. He was the only receiver on the team. And that's exactly what Wondell Robinson is.

1:11:11Dave Helman: Every now and then you get a receiver who cheats the numbers like with volume because of, yeah, there's just nobody else to throw to. And like in a world where any offense can throw for 3 ,800 yards in a season, it's like somebody's going to get a thousand yards somehow.

1:11:24Derrik Klassen: That was my favorite one. I hate it. I'm a biased LSU homer. But like you get promoted to the level of your own incompetence. Like Russell Gage is objectively a success story, like a sixth round pick who rose up to be worth a$30 million contract. but once you're on a$30 million contract and you're not producing, it's back to being a bum and a guy that years later, we're like, oh yeah, remember that deal not working out? Russell Gage made$29 million

1:11:53Robert Mays: playing professional football.

1:11:54Derrik Klassen: So he did just fine. Wandale Robinson is a good shout though. I feel like when we've talked about the receiver market, he hasn't really come up and subconsciously, that's probably because I wouldn't be excited to give him a lot of money.

1:12:06Robert Mays: Tomorrow, we're doing superlatives, free agency superlatives. We're doing a bunch of different categories. favorite fits, things like that. One of the categories that we're going to do is guy that is going to make more money than you think. And in talking to some people around the league this morning, just asking, who do you think that guy will be? Wando Robinson was one of the first responses. So we will be doing that category plus a bunch of others on tomorrow's show. Very much looking forward to that. As a reminder, Monday, 11 a.m. Central, Athletic Football Show YouTube channel. We are starting a five hour free agency day one live stream.

1:12:40Robert Mays: We have 15 guests that are going to be joining us over that 15, over that five-hour period. Do you want me to list off the guests? Is that why you're showing me the graphic? Okay. 16 guests, says KDR producer. Deontay Lee, Sam Schwartzstein, Jordan Rodry, JP Acosta, Nate Tice, Danny Kelly, Ben Solak, Mina Kimes, Diana Rossini, Connor Orr, Carmen Vitale, Trevor Sikama, Bill Barnwell, Matt Harmon, Fran Duffy, Mike Sando are all the people that have been confirmed. So if any of them back out, you now know that they did that and you can yell at them. That's quite a card. That's quite, I feel pretty good about it.

1:13:14Robert Mays: I feel pretty good, but it was one of those things where I asked everyone and that I wasn't sure how many people were going to say yes. Then I asked more people and then everyone said yes. So I appreciate everyone that's going to be joining us and spending their time. I think it's going to be really fun. Encourage you guys to come hang out and watch along with us for now. That is all we got. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

1:13:36Thank you.

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