2026 NFC North preview

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1:20Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature. card. I'm Robert Mays. Today, it's the NFC North preview. One of my favorite shows of the year, every year. And today was no exception. Probably my favorite one that we've done. I had a lot of juice with this one because it's an incredibly intriguing division. Let's get to it. Me, Dave and Derek breaking down the NFC North right now.

1:55Robert Mays: I've always got a little more pep in my step for the NFC North preview for a few different reasons it was the first show we ever did on this feed it was me and Nate Tice in August of 2020 which is six years ago now it's the first show that ever appeared on the athletic football show is the NFC North preview and it's just the division I grew up with it's the teams I grew up with even when i visit them during training camp it just feels so familiar and comfortable their teams i've been visiting forever all the people are the same in the background and so there is a certain level of familiarity but also excitement every time i get to talk about this

2:26Derrik Klassen: division this would apply to the afc north too but i've always admired the geography of the nfc north and how it's really like a close-knit division like you can get to all of these places

2:36Robert Mays: in a car it's further than you think to minneapolis the afc north is much better it's like eight

2:42Derrik Klassen: hours but it's doable yes it's doable and i just i love the familiarity there's obviously there's a lot of people from all four teams here in chicago it's just it's a very collegiate division and it's

2:52Robert Mays: it's fun yeah you felt that last night when anytime we spoke even moderately positively about the packers we were jeered by the crowd at our live show that's all you need to know about

3:02Dave Helman: that i mean if you said anything about any of the non-bears teams in a positive way except except for i mean no i think for the most part that that was true yes it was it was the only thing about it feeling collegiate these are all like the oldest teams in the nfl like the afc north you got some newer ones in there the ravens aren't aren't very old but like this is truly like this has football

3:22Robert Mays: since it's been started so let's dig into it we're gonna start again we're doing these in order of divisional odds not in order of last year's finish for this one it's particularly important but we're gonna start with the detroit lions our preview for the 2026 detroit lions their offseason in 60 seconds drew petsing in as the offensive coordinator cade mays at center obviously have lost him for a good chunk of this season already larry borum for offensive line depth juice scruggs as part of the david montgomery trade roger mccreary christian izzie and chuck clark rocky sin and avante maddox both back dj wanham and ben barch some of those names might be surprising like why i would include them they're all going to be relevant as part of this conversation we'll get to it the david montgomery trade lost david montgomery al-gadeen muhammad taylor decker no longer on this team amik robertson dj reader alex anzalone kalief raymond coyote awa sika in the draft we have blake miller in round one derrick moore in round two isaac tesla is made up

4:15Dave Helman: of about five third round draft picks over the course of many years yes for each of these teams

4:21Robert Mays: we're going to kick things off what we are most with what we are most excited to see with them in 2026 derrick why don't you start us off what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 clients. The offense is going to be a firework show again, because they always are. The funniest part about this, we do not share notes prior. You guys drop an answer in and then I go look at it in my own document. I also said verbatim, the offense is still a firework show. So we both independently came to that exact same framing. Mind melding.

4:52Dave Helman: And that's what they are, because even if last year was imperfect, the thing that they were still good at was explosive plays and the best players making incredible plays. Jameer Gibbs was still one of the best backs in the league. Like, Jameson Williams, I think him taking a step almost kind of went under the radar a little bit because I think we just felt not as good about the Lions offense overall. But he was fantastic last season. Amin Ross St. Brown is an amazing player. Sam Laporta, I think, is still a really good tight end. Like, the collection of offensive talent is insane. The quarterback is really good, and it feels more like his offense than it had even when he got there.

5:25Dave Helman: And so I just have a really, really big amount of faith that if last year is the floor where they were still seventh in EPA per play or EPA per drive, I feel pretty good that they're going to be top seven again at minimum. And like, if things break right, they could be the best in the league again.

5:42Robert Mays: They fired the offensive coordinator like five or six weeks into the season, whatever it is, and fire, move him to the side. And they still were like a top seven offense by any metric that you want to use. That says a lot. I drafted Amon Ross St. Brown in the fantasy league that we're in the other day. Part of me afterwards was like, oh man, should I have done that? You look at the numbers. Last three years, Rob Manra, St. Brown, 119 catches for 1 ,515 yards and 10 touchdowns, 115 catches for 1 ,200 yards and 12 touchdowns, 117 catches for 1 ,400 yards and 11 touchdowns. It's pretty good. Pretty solid and consistent.

6:15Robert Mays: And I think even in a year where it all felt a little bit more unsettled, this was still a very, very good offense.

6:21Derrik Klassen: This is the shortlist of best skill talent in the NFL, particularly if Sam Laporta is a healthier, more productive player this year. I mean, of course, there are a few teams that could quibble with that, but they're on that list of three or four teams.

6:35Dave Helman: It's at least like I think you can make an easier case that it's the most complete, too. Like if you want to say like I'd rather have Jamar Chase and T. Higgins plus whatever else, like sure. Top to bottom. But the fact that they have a guy who is at minimum a pro bowler at every single position and in the case of Jameer Gibbs, maybe the best at his position in the entire league. It's pretty hard to find anything that looks like that.

6:55Robert Mays: When you look at the offense last year, the overall numbers by the end of it were really good. And that's, again, I think part of the reason that you can build this case for optimism. Just putting into some context about why last year did feel a little bit different. We talked about this in the moment, but I think it's worth bringing up again. Per NextGen last year, the Lions had eight games with a 40 % or lower offensive success rate, eight. In 2023 and 2024 combined, they had six. So even if the heights of the offense were still really impressive, really dangerous, you felt how explosive they could be.

7:28Robert Mays: It was just so much more up and down last year than it had been at any point. So if they just steady this thing, that's what this is all about. I think we could easily talk ourselves into this being one of the best offices in the league again.

7:39Dave Helman: Yeah, I do too. And again, like who knows exactly how good Drew Petsing is. I know that we'll talk about that. But like, again, I'm confident that he's not like get fired in the middle of the season sort of bad like we had with the Lions last year. And so I feel pretty good about the ship being steadied here.

7:55Derrik Klassen: We've joked about it before, but it's fun to look at the Lions And you go into it with misgivings and doubts and concerns. And yeah, they fired their OC midway through last year. We're still top seven. The defense fell apart again. I should use scare quotes because they finished 11th in defensive DVOA. Like anecdotally, there's so much reason to think that last year's Lions were not all that impressive of a team, but the data tells you something else entirely.

8:22Robert Mays: So what are you most excited about?

8:24Derrik Klassen: I want to talk about this in greater detail because I agree with the premise. but are we paying enough attention to what is staring Jameer Gibbs in the face right now, which is a backfield with zero competition for touches? Isaiah Pacheco is on IR anyway to start the season. In the year 2026, I just don't think that would have mattered anyway. Jameer Gibbs, the other running backs on this team, have 12 career touches between the three of them. Jameer Gibbs is in line to do all of the work for this team, And it's not just me saying that Dan Campbell used one of my favorite football phrases. There is this summer bell cow.

9:04Derrik Klassen: That's what you want to hear. Jameer Jameer Gibbs, the bell cow running back as a rookie. He got 45 % of the lions touches and it's gone up every year from there to the point where he was at 63%. That is, I mean, it's a drastic increase. And obviously if you watch the lions last year, you know, by year three, it was Sonic and knuckles for two years. And then last year, David Montgomery was like very clearly the number two guy there. But 63 % can still be so much higher. I was curious. John Robinson got 70 % of the Falcons touches last year. Christian McCaffrey in 2023 got 70%. I don't know if you could do this to Jameer Gibbs, but last year, McCaffrey got 77 % of the San Francisco 49ers.

9:49Derrik Klassen: That would scare me. I'm not sure I'd want to do that. No, I think that's too high. but anything between like 68 and 75 percent I'm really interested to see it and if that happens if the if if Drew Petsing is good at his job and if the offensive line tweaking works the Cade Mays thing scares me a little bit but we'll get to that well and and he'll be back at some point during the season anyway all of that to say I really think Jameer Gibbs could have like an offensive player of the year type of year absolutely with the with the amount of work that is there for him to do and what we know about him as a player.

10:23Derrik Klassen: I mean, we all know the statistics, but there's nothing standing in his way from getting that type of workload. And I remember Derek blew my mind two weeks from the end of last year where he was just like, look at Bajon Robinson's numbers and tell me we shouldn't be talking about him as an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Jameer Gibbs has that type of potential and the Lions are going to have a winning record this year.

10:45Robert Mays: Here's the one other parallel that I would make. And if we're trying to make a comparison to Bajon Robinson last year, Bajon Robinson had 115 snaps in the slot last season. Jameer Gibbs had 45. I think we're going to see Jameer Gibbs do that a lot this year.

10:57Dave Helman: Okay. Like out of empty, or you think they're getting another back on the field?

11:00Derrik Klassen: Another back on the field. Okay. That is the easiest way I can think of to up Jameer Gibbs' production to that level because the receiving statistics are pretty obvious. Like, I think it was close in terms of catches. I think Jameer had like 77 catches on the year and Bajon had like 79. Like really close. But Bajon did so much more with those touches. Like he averaged a full two more yards per reception than Jameer Gibbs did. So like a better array of ways to use him as a receiver and getting more out of those routes and targets would go a long way without having to change his rushing workload that much at all.

11:39Robert Mays: I think their mindset is we can't afford to keep him off the field and we have to use him in as many ways as we can. And I think that is often something we hear in August and July is we're going to use more pony personnel. We're going to do more two back stuff with them. I truly do believe they're going to try it. Who will pass protect in those situations? I think becomes the question because I in my mind it is in like I'm like third down because if you're thinking about this team on third down, I think we'll see a lot of 12 personnel with this team with Brock Wright and Laporta on the field. But that's look at Drew Petsing's history.

12:07Robert Mays: but if it's third down and you're going to be an 11 or you're going to 11 if you're going to have three players who are not tight ends on the field in some capacity as receivers right now don't you think there's a scenario where your best three players in that spot are jameer gibbs

12:22Dave Helman: on my own rossst brown and jamison williams i mean outside of maybe the red zone i think that that's absolutely true like unless i want to just throw up like a fade to isaac to slot like i would much rather have jameer gibbs on the field and even then like some of what he can do in in like on like option routes and stuff like in the red zone, like beating up on linebackers and stuff like, maybe that actually even is better than whatever you might get from Toslaw.

12:42Robert Mays: And it might be a situation where you don't feel comfortable enough about what you're getting in pass protection from some of those other guys. And so you back off it, but I'll say it's on their minds in terms of how they could potentially make that stuff work. Let's get to what we're watching the first month of the season with the Lions. We're going to hit this for every single team. Just a curiosity you have, something that is a lingering question that you want an answer on early in the year. Derek, why don't you kick us off what is your what are you watching the first month of the season with the lions i mean to me it's just

13:09Dave Helman: how many of the young offensive linemen either take a step or in the case of blake miller who we haven't seen really play nfl football are good at all like i think christian mahogany i think i probably feel the best about him of the three right now just because i think when he's been out there i think he's been pretty decent tate ratledge the power is insane he also still i think is a little bit like heavy footed at times and i'm wondering like how well he's able to find He's a stiff player. He's a little bit stiff.

13:35Robert Mays: He's explosive, but he can be stiff.

13:37Dave Helman: You're just hoping that almost like he really is like the story of the entire offense. If the floor can just be raised a little bit, his best stuff is truly like opens up touchdown sort of rushing lanes for a guy like Jameer Gibbs. It's consistency.

13:49Robert Mays: It's just a refinement and consistency in year two, 100%.

13:52Dave Helman: And then Blake Miller, I'm really excited to see because, you know, Taylor Decker, I think was was pretty tough for this team last year. But Blake Miller is unbelievably talented. Like his just to me, the balance that he plays with is like unbelievable. There are even if you just watch him in the preseason, there are a handful of reps in every game where for the first second, it looks like he's going to get beat so bad that he looks undrafted. And then he just recovers and wins the rep. And you're like, that doesn't seem possible for anybody to do. And so if he's then, you know, by the end of the year, putting himself in fewer losing positions, it's like, I don't know, man, he might just end up being a really good player by the end of this.

14:26Dave Helman: So I'm excited for him.

14:27Robert Mays: I think we understate how diminished Taylor Decker was last year with that shoulder. He dealt with it the entire season. He just wasn't right. And so even bringing in a rookie, so often we see a first-round pick and we just immediately bake in, oh, this is going to work. But for the Lions, I actually don't think it's unreasonable to think with Penny Sewell moving to the left and bringing Blake Miller in, their tackle play will be better, like full stop than it was last year because of how banged up Decker was. And based on the early returns, they're really happy with what they've gotten from Blake Miller.

14:55Robert Mays: I feel like there are two things to jump out. One, he's just a smoother athlete than I think they expected him to be based on what they had seen on tape. And the other part is that some of that stuff you're talking about, him getting in bad body positions, it was worse in the spring and has improved, where he's oversetting a little bit and just getting a little antsy. And you've even seen some refinement and improvement over the course of one single offseason. They feel very good about the tackles. The interior stuff is the question. Because you mentioned Christian Mahogany. Christian Mahogany wasn't even penciled in to be like the definite starter by the middle of August okay I think he probably will end up getting that job and park as Ben Bartsch was banged up over the course of the summer but I think they were ready for that to be a real battle between those two guys interesting that was going to be one of my mini what's keeping me up at nights is there a scenario where if Cade Mays does not come back in short order the interior of this line isn't that much better than it was a year ago because that's nightmare fuel yeah based on what you wanted this to be after drafting Cade Mays and hoping you were going to get real step ups from the two young

15:57Derrik Klassen: guards and I probably am hand waving it a little bit because when the Cade Mays injury happened you started hearing like week six or whatever it was like mid-october is the is the timetable that I'm working with right now and that sounds great but you can't completely take that at face value and if you don't have him for longer or god forbid if he's diminished because of the injury or needs time to get up to speed i shouldn't i should not be hand waving the interior of the offensive line

16:23Robert Mays: it's definitely something worth being concerned about i think the way i framed it as a worst case scenario i think i expect ratlidge to be better i do think scruggs i think clasco just never wanted to play center he just i think that they did that because they didn't have an option like that was a we are pivoting to this because we lost frank rag now they wanted ratlidge to do it they tried someone else before and then mahogany just was banged up and just never found himself i thought I've seen enough flashes for Mahogany to still have a candlelit for him. I expect Grouch to be better. And so overall, I do think the interior will be significantly better.

16:53Robert Mays: But that's one of those dreadful things, where if we're just going through the season and it doesn't feel different than it was last year, that could be a tough reality if you're a Lions fan.

17:03Derrik Klassen: The other thing that I note when I look at this is, and I love the Juice Scruggs trade. We talked about it at the time. Their depth is better. It's already being tested before the season has started. And unfortunately, you can't predict what else might happen. And they're already thinner than they were supposed to be heading into week one.

17:22Robert Mays: I'm going to take the offensive line point and just take it a little bit broader. I'm just curious what the Drew Petzling version of this offense looks like. We don't need to completely rehash it now. If you want to go listen to the new play callers episode we did about the slate of new guys are going to be calling offenses and defenses. We really dug into it, but he learned all the Lions language. He's going to come over and run an offense that has much of the same DNA from what we've seen from the Lions over the last few years. I anticipate some tweaks. We mentioned it in the moment. This was a team that did not – the Cardinals were not a team that ran a lot of, like, outside zone compared to league averages.

17:58Robert Mays: They were down near the bottom of the NFL. I think we'll see more gap scheme runs because that's what Petsing does. I think we'll see some more – the return to just play action overall. Like last year, the run action rate for the Lions went from 66 % in 2024, which is the highest in the league, and the highest in the league over the last two years, to 57%. It's a 10 percentage point drop, 9 percentage points from one season to the other. Why? Like, that's what this team does. Like, putting them in scenarios where you're just letting Jared rip in breakers off play action, that's what they do well, and that's what Drew wants to do.

18:32Robert Mays: And so I anticipate a return to that because this is a really good play action team. And I think it'd just be about the running game getting back to where it was. Per True Media, 26th in rushing success rate last year. The Detroit Lions were 26. They were 25th in first downs per rush. They were third in rushing success rate in 2024. Some of that is offensive line diminishing, and some of that is Ben Johnson. And so can we get back to a place where this is definitively a top 10 rushing offense? in 2024 they had 82 third and seven plus situations all year they had 103 of them last year they had the lowest yards to go on third down in the nfl in 2024 so just even if the offense overall was still a top seven unit these are the things that over time just start to pile up and make it a little bit harder making you feel like you're fighting a little bit more against the current in the way that the lions were pretty often last year to bring it back to gibbs his

19:29Derrik Klassen: down to down rates are not good. They were bad. They were really bad. It was all explosiveness that made him a great back last year. And so that's a big part of my argument as well, as if you can get back to some consistency in the run game, in addition to what he does as a game breaker, it'll make a huge difference.

19:47Robert Mays: I do have some numbers on it. The Lions were 40 % outside zone team last year, per sumer sports numbers. The Cardinals were at 9%. It was dead last and so where they fall between those is going to be really interesting no team ran more counter or lead pull plays than the arizona cardinals last year and so we'll see i think it'll be a grab back

20:07Dave Helman: in terms of the run game and it should be a mix and i think you know part of why the cardinals were able to do that was they had a center who was really good at doing that to me that's not as much as scruggs's game but if they're trying to do a little bit more just like you can get the guards on the move though yeah which is a good athlete ratledge is a good athlete and i think even if you're running power to his side where he's throwing the down block well shoot yeah he's really really good at that too like I think where you see some of like uh Rattledge lumbering is when he's like comboing and then trying to get to a linebacker that's not what he does but unlike power like there's a little bit more of like the whole point is he's just got to knock that one technique or three technique back and I think he'll be able to do a really good job of that and so I think a little bit more of punch you in the face run game I think would probably be

20:47Derrik Klassen: pretty good for them what do you watch in the first month of the season with the Lions if you're building a front seven Aiden Hutchinson and Jack Campbell is about as good a starting point as you could ask for what you get from the rest of that in Detroit is I think one of the biggest inflection points of how good this team could be and so like I said I mean building a pass rush out of Aiden Hutchinson you can do that that's kind of bit like they've had to do that in recent years but wouldn't you love to get some help and 40 of their pressures from last year uh are or excuse me i'm sorry aiden hutchinson and al-kadeen muhammad accounted for 40 of their pressures last year al-kadeen muhammad is gone there's a lot of guys that you feel good about who can help this but what does that look like in the first month of the season we talked about a limb mcneil was was banged up last year what does he look like this year tyreek will you apparently very good good that to me it's not

21:41Robert Mays: that dissimilar to me from the conversation we've been having having about nabdi madabike it's not dissimilar to me when you just think about what that guy was at his best that's a really what it can be as a transformative piece the cardinals played the lions a couple years ago and going into that game the player that drew petzing was most worried about in the lions defense was a lee mcneil this summer during practices that's what it just felt like it's that guy that we were scared of two years ago that's what he looks like and that to me is the

22:10Derrik Klassen: most important thing that can happen for the lions defense if that happens it very drastically changes my opinion of this team because it's huge if he's that guy we've talked about tylie williams making any sort of year two jump and just being somebody that can be part of that dj wanham is just a steady eddie good football player so like if but if he is part of it with getting that from your defensive tackles that feels really really good you throw derrick moore

22:38Robert Mays: in there like it just say what Derek Moore is but you're piecemealing that other edge spot but they feel good about the rotation at the very least because that's been a weakness every year they've already had to do that yeah there's a it's it's funny when you look at it because they from the outside you look at that spot and like oh this is a need I think they believe it's in a better spot

22:56Derrik Klassen: than it's been over the last like three seasons yeah they would know but yeah so you can like I say you can do this with Aiden Hutchinson just sort of holding everything up like Atlas but you don't want to you know and so what are you getting from the rest of those guys this is also a good place to say can we note that it looks like Devin White might be a starter for this team they should send him 200 times I mean yeah that might actually work yeah and like Kelvin Shepard didn't blitz much last year but Devin White is really good at that and I assume it's gonna be Barnes well how they sort that out too is interesting yeah but like barnes is weird too because like you kind of want him on the edge he is a sam and yeah it's i still like but i guess i'm glad you said that because he's been there for a while it's in my notes too like kelvin shepherd said it was way back at the combine but he said they want to play more nickel this year because the line that will have to happen they've played so much base but like how do you sort that out with barnes is devon white actually a meaningful piece of this thing i'm curious about that barnes is making

23:59Robert Mays: $8 million a year. I can't imagine that they're going to keep him off the field for Devin White even if, in theory, he's been more of a Sam that you can play down near the line of scrimmage. The nickel thing is 100%. It has to happen. Let's just transition into what's keeping us up at night because I think we all have the exact same answer about that. For each of these teams, we're going to talk about just a looming fear or worry that we have about how this could go poorly. Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the Detroit Lions this year?

24:26Dave Helman: I mean, yeah, the secondary. The safeties neither of them are going to play for the first month of the season at least in brian branch and kirby joseph i think they're both still on ir they're starting cornerbacks today according to our lads rock yasin dj reed and christian izian who has played like every position in the secondary for the bucks over the last couple of years i like christian

24:45Derrik Klassen: i i really like christian i think christian izian got demoted just because the bucks drafted a lot of good players in their secondary i i'm not saying he's like a pro bowler or anything but I'm excited to watch him.

24:56Dave Helman: He's one of those that like how you feel about the player and the signing changes over the offseason. When they signed him and he, to me, was going to be their utility off the bench in a pinch guy, I was like, that rocks. I love that. It is a little scarier. I'm like, oh, that's a little different.

25:10Derrik Klassen: When you're in the week one lineup. Yeah.

25:12Robert Mays: And that's how it is for a lot of these guys. I mean, right now it sounds like it's going to be Chuck Clark and Avante Maddox at safety and Christian Izzy at the nickel. That's just not what the Detroit Lions were supposed to look like on the back end.

25:22Dave Helman: Well, Navante Maddox has played nickel for a large part of the handful of passes. Oh, excuse me. I screwed that up. Well, no, I think he—it seems like he might start at safety, but he's been a nickel for a lot of times. Oh, yeah.

25:33Robert Mays: Navante Maddox and Chuck Clark and then Izzy in at the nickel.

25:35Dave Helman: But I'm saying Maddox has been a nickel previously for a lot of other teams. That's where they're at.

25:39Robert Mays: Especially just like, throw it out there and see who sticks. That kind of does feel like it. And you're talking about nickel, or you're talking about nickel compared to base. This team played an incredible amount of base defense last year, 60 % of plays. and I think they did that because that was probably their best 11 last season with Amika Robertson having to play outside as much as he did because Taryn Arnold was hurt if you're trying to spin this positively I think that's what you can theoretically do Kirby Joseph and Taryn Arnold only played 600 combined snaps last year like this was a defense that the numbers overall weren't that bad when they were already banged up in the secondary the Brian Branch part of it is a

26:14Derrik Klassen: different consideration the numbers are not very good if you look at the stretch where Branch wasn't

26:18Robert Mays: That's the scariest part. But if he can get back by week five, week six, after coming off the pup list, can you right the ship enough and have it be similar enough to last year's personnel where the overall quality is similar to what it was last year? Because when you look at the numbers last season, their biggest issue is that they just gave up an absurd amount of explosive plays. Like an absurd amount of them. And a lot of that was coming out of playing base defense. They allowed 60 explosive passes playing base last year. No other team in the league allowed more than 40. Some of that is volume, just the sheer amount of base that you're playing.

26:54Robert Mays: But even if you look at other base-heavy teams, the Lions allowed an 18.8 % explosive pass rate last year in base. The Vikings and the Raiders, both of whom were very heavy base defense teams, were at like 13.5%. So they were just getting cooked. There were 73 explosive passes last year in the NFL out of 11 personnel against base defense, 73.

27:14Derrik Klassen: the Lions allowed 17 of those 73 plays that's obscene I have to assume some of that is volume but it's still not of course but even still it's a quarter of them but and like I we can say like that's partly volume but it's like they're playing that way because they felt that that was still

27:31Dave Helman: their best way to play and that is still where they arrived with a lot of the explosive and I

27:35Robert Mays: just don't think that's going to happen again this year with Anzalone out of the picture and with even if the dbs are all rotational kind of plugging holes and problems players they still have a lot of them and i still think those are probably that's probably the best way for you to end up

27:50Derrik Klassen: playing as a team the thing that keeps me awake at night is it's similar to the cade may's situation it's so easy to say hold the rope until brian branches back and he can be a stabilizing force he's coming off of an achilles injury and i know this year more than any year that apparently doesn't mean anything. Well, it doesn't mean anything

28:08Robert Mays: for guys practicing. We still haven't seen any of those guys. Professional football. Yes. Ahead.

28:13Dave Helman: Yes. It's like, well, until week four. I don't know if that's true. Would it be incredible

28:16Robert Mays: if every single guy that I can just all picture pillow, Daniel Jones, everybody has been practicing for a month and then they play and it's just like, oh, they look like,

28:24Derrik Klassen: well, why'd they do that? Yeah, there is a difference. And I'm just not willing to to bake Brian Branch playing at his normal level in right away. I hate that because he's one of my favorite players in the league but I got to see what that looks like and I think it's more complicated than saying the cavalry is coming week six because I mean you hope that's true it might not be

28:47Robert Mays: yeah I the secondary I think is exactly the answer and even if they were able to hold down the fort a little bit last season as those injuries piled up and just play concerns Terrell didn't play well on top of being banged up for a good chunk of the season so I think that would be the rationalization cope approach to it but I still think if you're being honest with yourself the secondary is the element of this team that should be keeping you up at night for each one of these teams we are going to chat about what success looks like obviously it's different for everybody Derek what is success for the 2026 Lions I think just kind of get back to a

29:22Dave Helman: spot where we don't doubt that you are a pretty regular 10-11 win team because right now I think even if they are technically ahead of the odds I don't think everybody feels perfectly good that they're a 10 or 11 win football team the way that we have the last two going into the last two seasons I think going into 24 and going into 25 everyone was like yeah 10 or 11 wins it's like bare minimum and I think if they can get back to that spot the offense feels stabilized with Drew Petzling and Jared Goff there I think that to me is success I think they're in such a retooling period with this defense that they to me are not a like championship contender necessarily right now so if they just get to the spot where we feel really good about them I think that's success

29:59Derrik Klassen: we had a whole conversation in june about whether it was fair that they were the betting favorite to win the division and we unanimous and unanimously agreed that yes in the preseason at least that's fair the nice thing about finishing in fourth place is you are gifted with three much easier games their schedule is hilarious their schedule is incredible yeah you get the nfc south and three woeful opponents and of course we can't predict that to a certainty but it is a very favorable looking schedule. The Lions should win the division. That would be a successful season. It would be a nice cherry on top if you could win a playoff game because they haven't done that since 2023.

30:37Derrik Klassen: They went 0-1 in 2024 and didn't make it last year. Which is still, it's the most, it's so depressing.

30:44Robert Mays: I would just sit there and cry about that every time I thought about it. That team was so good.

30:49Derrik Klassen: It was so good. I didn't mean to bring that up, Lions fans, but the point is, it's been a couple years.

30:54Robert Mays: so it's worth bringing up it's worth bringing up the it may never be as good as this again

30:59Derrik Klassen: it's worth it every time you talk about this team because it's real winning the division and preferably winning a playoff game but at least being in the playoffs would be a successful season

31:08Robert Mays: win the division show everyone last year was the exception yep and the one thing we did not mention as it relates to this team and i only want to do this because i've been trying to bang this drum all summer and it's just worth bringing up i think we've really under discussed how important the quarterback is to what this team feels like year over year. That consistency on offense that we're talking about, the ability to not even dip below top 10 levels last year as everything else feels so chaotic, to me just speaks to the type of real stabilizing force that Jared Goff has become. And he's one of those guys that we don't talk about or think about that way often enough, and I think we really should.

31:47Derrik Klassen: I'm so glad you said that, and you have been pounding the drum for Jared Goff all summer. And I thought about this when I was thinking about what would be a successful season for the Lions, because for several teams, I'm very quick to say, clock's ticking. How much time do you have with this? Of course, you can't predict the future, but Jared Goff's game lends itself to him having a lot of time. He told you 31. He sat down with you this summer and said, I want to play into my 40s or close to it. Like, I think you've got a lot of runway with Jared Goff and his game should age gracefully to where, I mean, everybody can't move now.

32:24Derrik Klassen: Exactly. He's never been able to move. He couldn't move when he was 28. So obviously the NFL is tricky like that. And I know things can change on a dime. But if I was a Lions fan, I would feel good that we have reason to hope that we can build great teams around Jared Goff for like quite a while to come. instead of this year or next year, it's got to happen. Like, I don't feel that way about Detroit.

32:46Robert Mays: I think there are a really select few quarterbacks who you could trust to have the intellectual, like creative partnership he had with Drew Petsing this offseason about the way they went back and forth about the offense, how much of a resource he was for an offensive coordinator. It's just not that many guys could do it. And it's really, to me, an expression of an idea that we talked about where sometimes the quarterback becomes the offense when he has the capacity to do that and has been in it for long enough. and I think we're at a point now where like the Jared the Lions offense is channeled through Jared Goff in a way that we don't talk about often enough the skill position talent is incredible but he is a perfect sort of quarterback to unlock these players in the way that they're supposed to

33:24Dave Helman: be unlocked well and up until the last five years and I think this is still true what did we say every offseason offense is sicker than defense offense is sicker than defense the reason is is there were for so long like quarterbacks the top 10 quarterbacks were all guys who had done for eight plus years. And we're like truly guys leading the ship on like how the offense is constructed. That's why offense was sticky. And Jared Goff, even if he's not like as flashy as some of the other guys, he absolutely has that quality.

33:51Robert Mays: He's played extremely well and continues to it. It just, again, I'm trying to bring that back as often as we can mention it. All right, guys, before we get to the Packers preview, let's take a quick break. Are you the kind of sports fan that wants to dig into the story behind the stats? Join The Athletic Live on YouTube to cover all the sports stories you can't stop talking about. On game days, we'll watch the biggest matchups alongside the Athletic's most tapped-in reporters, and you can become part of the show in the interactive chat. The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube.

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36:52Robert Mays: Let's get to the Green Bay Packers, our preview for the 2026 Green Bay Packers. They're offseason in 60 seconds. Jonathan Gannon is the defensive coordinator. Bobby Babich is the passing game coordinator, which I do think is interesting. Signed Tyrod Taylor, Javon Hargrave, traded for Zaire Franklin. Colby Wooden got caught by the Colts. It's just highway robbery by the Packers. Benjamin St. Juice, Jonu Smith is here now. Traded for Mark Redman, which is something that will come up because I do think it's important. Also traded for Caleb Johnson in a post-Josh Jacobs world. Worth mentioning, Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exemplist, even though it's not technically a loss.

37:25Robert Mays: also lost Romeo Dobbs, Quay Walker, Kingsley Anikbari, Malik Willis, Elton Jenkins, Rasheed Walker, and moved on from Nate Hobbs in the draft. Brandon Cisse in the second round, Chris McClellan in the third round, and Denis Denis Sutton in the fourth round. What are we most excited about, Derek, with the 2026 Green Bay Packers? I just love watching this quarterback play football, man.

37:51Dave Helman: Like, it's really as simple as that. Oh, we know. I just think it's both in terms of how it looks and what he's trying to accomplish. I do think that just the elasticity, the calmness with which he kind of maneuvers and bounces around the pocket, I think is pretty unique among the NFL right now. Some of the back foot stuff, when he first started doing it when he was a starter, it's like, what's wrong with you? Why are you doing that? And now it's like, he's kind of the only guy who can get away with it at that rate, and it looks incredible. And so I just think that he's incredibly aesthetically pleasing to watch for that reason.

38:23Dave Helman: and he he is the most like chuck it down the field quarterback we have in the NFL over the last two seasons the only two quarterbacks with a higher percentage of their throws to travel 20 plus yards are Anthony Richardson who like that was not real and Marcus Mariota who is at the point where he's just like chucking it because why wouldn't I but Jordan Love is doing this while being one of the most efficient players in a very real situation yes like it's I just think that he is an unbelievably cool player to watch.

38:51Robert Mays: We talk about this a lot with this idea and we've seen a lot with a lot of the second chance quarterbacks that have made the most of their opportunities. Jared Goff being one of those guys. This convergence when you get to age 28, 29 as a quarterback where the physical talent is still as potent as it's been but the mental side is now coming along at the same point and you reach this connection moment where it all comes together at the same time and you kind of hit what is your peak as a player. Jordan Love is 27 years old he just turned 27 yeah this is his age 28 season he was calling their plays during the preseason like i i'm very excited kyle mccord just like nuked whoever they were playing with jordan love yes yes and then that's a silly thing but like i do think it really speaks to what his his like ownership of what they're doing from a schematic perspective and so that convergence of the physical talent plus what he is clearly becoming capable of and comfortable with mentally i'm excited to watch that in a way like as a football fan i'm excited to watch it as somebody emotionally invested in team in this division i'm less excited to watch it but it is a very cool potentiality for this team and it's like it's not even just that like

40:00Dave Helman: jordan love now is on he's going into what year six as an nfl player his fourth year as a starter it's also the fact that it's all been in the same offense the entire time like that that is a pretty rare thing for a guy to get with like his level of talent the process we're talking yes it accelerates that and so just a guy with his level of talent some of the highs that he's already shown like I just to me the line goes up with him until it doesn't allow me to piggyback on your

40:26Derrik Klassen: point because it does hinge pretty heavily on Jordan Love being good at football and I think he is but I'm excited about the vision for these receivers the pass catching group overall I'm incredibly high on you don't have to squint that hard to see it like the depth isn't as good as it used to be and there is a little bit of forecasting involved but not as much as you might guess can we talk about christian watson for a second i understand that you can't just completely ignore durability issues for a guy that's missed 30 of his games but just the second half of last season when christian watson came back from his acl it'd be pretty easy to make the argument that he was like a top 20 receiver in the nfl like the stats the stats kind of blew my mind he was he over these whatever it was like nine games second half of the year tied for third and receiving touchdowns with six tied for ninth in explosive receptions with 17 he was second in the league in the percentage of his catches that were explosive led the league in air yards per catch seventh in epa per target fifth among all receivers in yards per route run ninth in first downs per route run and he uh first downs per route run he was tied with stefan diggs and only trailing george pickens he's playing out of his mind he was like absolutely awesome and all of that despite the fact that his target share was 19 which was tied with mac hollands over that stretch of time so So like if you take away, obviously like the durability thing is very real and not having the depth could be concerning.

42:00Derrik Klassen: But if we're feeding him the ball more this year based on what he was doing last year, I completely understand why Green Bay gave him$110 million. Like I think that number sounds mind boggling when you think about the fact that he's never had more than 620 yards in a season. But if you're hoping that that was the start of things to come, I completely get it. And then Matthew Golden obviously had a very small role as a rookie last year. But again, they were so deep at receiver and had so many more experienced guys. The stat I like the most about him is he had 10 catches for 265 yards and was top 20 in EPA per target when the Packers targeted him 10 or plus yards down the field.

42:44Derrik Klassen: Because that's the other thing. He ran so many like gadgety routes within like six to eight yards of the line of scrimmage. when he had an opportunity to do stuff down the field, it looked pretty damn good in fits and starts. And so banking on the talent that he had that made him a first-round pick and actually opening up his repertoire and his opportunities, I'm pretty bought in on what that's going to look like.

43:06Robert Mays: It's not as clean as this group was last year because I think the roles for this team were a little bit more defined. But it reminds me a little bit of thinking about the Colts pass-catching group coming into last season. where even and again the roles aren't quite as clean as they were with the colts like pierce is your field stretcher pitman's your dirty work over the middle kind of rpo guy and then downs is your underneath man beater the colts don't have that sort of clear the packers don't have that sort of clarity but everyone has more juice like collectively every single player is explosive if jayden reed is your slot option he's an explosive player from the slot slot.

43:42Robert Mays: Christian Watson is an explosive player. Matthew Golden ran 4-2-9-40 at the combine. There's just so much giddy up collectively among this group. So even if the rolls aren't quite as cut and dry, collectively, the ways that you can attack the field and the potential explosiveness you have is incredible. And that's before even getting to Tucker Craft. The one thing that I do think is similar is that I think that Tucker Craft is just a souped up version of Tyler Warren.

44:06Dave Helman: Oh, yes, absolutely.

44:07Robert Mays: The idea of I can just spit the ball to you and good things are going to happen they can play that role similarly and Kraft is a better blocker and so Kraft is just I don't I think we've probably because he's been hurt all offseason got hurt last year just forgotten like what type of player he was last year when Tucker Kraft was on the field the Packers averaged 0.3 EPA per drop back he was incredible he was amazing 0.3 looking at the numbers I was really interested in this because the numbers for the Packers against man coverage last year were significantly better than they were the year before that's some Romeo Dobbs but his numbers purely against man weren't as good as I expected.

44:40Robert Mays: Tucker Craft last year averaged 1.15 EPA per reception against man coverage. So every time he caught the ball, the Packers got a point. And I went back and I watched a lot of those snaps. It's a lot of really quick stuff off play action, which makes sense, right? So you're in man, we're going to hard run action. We're going to get somebody filling. And then the person who's responsible for Tucker Craft and man coverage is now flying down into the sea gap. He's going to leak out. We're going to dump him the ball. it's going to be an explosive play. 351 of Tucker Craft's 489 yards last year came after the catch.

45:17Dave Helman: It's all, yes, because like once he gets the ball,

45:20Robert Mays: he's just like a moving freight train. He averaged 4.5 air yards per target last year. He averaged 11.1 yards per target. You can do the math on that.

45:28Dave Helman: And you know what the scariest part of all of this is? Dave just laid out everything about why you should be terrified about Christian Watson down the field. Underneath, within the first 10 yards, Tucker Craft is as scary as anybody in the NFL. Those two played 54 snaps together last year. Yeah. If they're on the field together and you have a quarterback that can truly threaten every blade of grass on the field at any given time, there is a chance that, like, even if Golden doesn't necessarily take a step, and even if Jaden Reed just kind of is what he is, if Watson and Kraft are just on the field together all the time, it's kind of all wheels up for the passing offense.

45:59Dave Helman: It's a great point.

46:00Robert Mays: I think some of my optimism is building in a step for Matthew Golden. He's one of those players that, all right, why didn't Matthew Golden produce as a rookie? because the role that he was drafted to play was more than capably filled within the offense by Romeo Dobbs in a way that he could not have filled it the year before, which is why they drafted Matthew Golden. The Packers do that, man. The Packers do that. And so I do think that Matthew Golden will be a much better player than he was last year, but I think it's a great point. Even if he's not, they're still probably going to be scary with that entire group collectively.

46:29Derrik Klassen: I am a little nervous about Tucker Craft. He's like killing himself to get out there for week one.

46:35Robert Mays: He's an unhinged, insane person. He certainly seems that way.

46:38Derrik Klassen: Compliment.

46:39Robert Mays: Of course, yes, in the best possible way. But like, you know, he's the warlord.

46:41Derrik Klassen: He's like, I'm not going to hold out. I'm going to be out there because I love my boys. And just take care of yourself, Tucker. Like you only get so many opportunities to sign a deal the size of the one you're going to sign. So just I want the Packers to be fun. But let's let's think about the long term here.

46:57Robert Mays: All right. So that's the stuff worth getting really excited about. Let's change the tone of this conversation because there's plenty of stuff about the Packers that maybe is a little bit less thrilling when you look at the rest of the roster. What are you watching the first month of the season with the Green Bay Packers, Dave?

47:13Derrik Klassen: I want to see how the defense responds to nine months of being told they ain't shit without Michael Parsons. Because, like, let's just call it what it is. I mean, like, if you're looking for reasons not to be optimistic about the Packers, it's, I mean, they're, of course, the offensive line, and we can get into that. But defensively, there's not a lot worth getting visibly excited about with Micah Parsons' sideline. If you want to get excited about Devontae Wyatt also coming back from injury, I think that's a valid point. But Micah Parsons is the bread and butter for this defense. And they were not as good statistically as you might guess when he was out there.

47:53Derrik Klassen: Those two games are doing a lot of lifting. They really are. but as as middling as they were in a lot of ways when michael was on the field they fell off a freaking cliff when he got hurt in denver and some of that is why it as well because you make the point all the time derrick they had like nobody left at detail they were on they got to the play

48:13Dave Helman: they were on dt6 like by the end of it it was tough it was still hot ass from like

48:19Derrik Klassen: december 18th until the end of the season man i mean from the time michael got hurt the packers fell from 10th in defensive success rate over the course of the season to 30th like overnight they were giving up uh 34 and a half percent of opposing rushes against them went for a first down over the last like three four weeks of the season 15 explosive rushes allowed over the last three weeks dead last in the league um this is all for you miami dolphins fans i mean what's the guy's supposed to do with that that's what the miami roster looks like i mean that's true so i also it's worth saying i gave the lions a little bit of shit for the lack of pressures on their front the packers don't have 56 of last season's pressures in their lineup for week one because in addition to micah kingsley and akbari is gone i know that 2025 rashaun gary wasn't somebody worth getting excited about for the most part but that was a lot of pressures that are gone the edge

49:18Robert Mays: rushing group right now it's tough is this is not theoretical the edge rushing group right now is lucas van ness baron sorrell and brenton cox jr that group combined last season the three of them had 34 pressures these aren't depth pieces these are the the rotational guys start without michael parsons for the first however many weeks of the season i'm holding out hope that maybe you

49:44Derrik Klassen: can motivate yourself because everybody's writing you off without number one but i'm open to van that's taking a step too like he did look a little bit better towards the end of last year i'm open still why it could do some heavy lifting for you if he looks right after the injury i think to me

49:59Dave Helman: if there's any sort of optimism it is that like if the de-tackle room is healthier and why it is playing at a relatively high level maybe you get anything from the third on pick chris mcclellan And I think Javon Hargrave, even though the Vikings cut him, like he's still a fine NFL starter. The Vikings were just like in a financial. He was very expensive. He was an expensive player. Just financially, they could not keep him.

50:20Robert Mays: He might be your best pass rusher on the team right now without Micah.

50:24Dave Helman: And so if they are just like a regular D-tackle room with some explosive pop to them instead of like, again, at certain stretches last year, like one of the worst in the NFL to a point where it was kind of unplayable. That alone might help lift this thing. I still think I'm pretty worried about the edge room as well, but like. Just pass rush period. Yeah, pass rush period.

50:42Robert Mays: That's what I'm worried about is just pass rush period. And that's what I'm watching. Like, what does Jonathan Gannon do over the first five or six weeks or whenever Micah Parsons is going to get back? How do you get by? Because even if you look at all the different things Jonathan Gannon has done at these stops, and I think the weirdness of the Cardinals defense is a Rick Nick Roms thing. Right. That is a Jonathan Gannon in a way that I've always appreciated had a real humility about how he handled that situation, where even as a defensive-minded head coach, he's like, you're the defensive coordinator.

51:11Robert Mays: This is your vision. I'm going to let you see this through. I don't think we'll see people trying to take, like, Arizona stuff and pasting it down to what the Packers are going to do. That's not, I don't think a lot of that stuff is going to happen. But even as you think about the different executions he's had in Philly and Arizona, he's never been a blitzer. Jonathan Gannon defense in either of those stops has never blitzed on more than 24.5 % of dropbacks, which is a below average rate. Even when they were blitzing in Philly, it was a lot of just really standard five-man front rushes. It's not a lot of guys off the ball.

51:43Robert Mays: In 2022, his last year in Philadelphia, among 104 off-ball linebackers with at least 10 pass rush snaps, Kysier White and TJ Edwards ranked 101st and 104th in how often they were rushing the passer. That can't happen. No. Like, you just, you, in order to survive over these, this time before you get Micah Parsons back. You're going to have to be more aggressive. We saw him doing it in the preseason. Like, that's going to have to happen. And I think the player I'm most interested in, in this entire defense, in that span, before Micah comes back, is Edron Cooper. I knew you were going to say that.

52:17Robert Mays: Because he becomes, I think by far, the most explosive, dynamic player that you have in the front seven. How do you weaponize that guy as a pass rusher on the edge in as many ways as you can? Because if you do not fully unlock him before Micah Parsons gets back, you cannot realize an even slightly dangerous version of this defense. No.

52:40Dave Helman: And like, you should be sending him a lot. Like, I think he's pretty good at that. And like, I think that there's a chance he can still develop in coverage, but it's still not his best suit. Like, you don't necessarily - Let's do that later. Yeah, we'll see that out later. Yes, exactly. And I will say, before the DT room completely exploded, he looked really good last season. And then like, again, he was playing with like guys who were probably on the practice squad beforehand. And so I think if the de-tackle room in front of him can look good and you get them like, oh, just opening up some holes for him to be able to fit against the run, if they want to use these guys like Hargrave and Wyatt are so explosive that if you want to do some run game stunts and just do some funky stuff that way, Cooper's the perfect player to send behind them because he will get into the backfield.

53:20Dave Helman: So they do have enough explosive pop here that doing some more interesting stuff than maybe Gannon has done before, I do think would go a long way for them.

53:27Robert Mays: What is keeping you up at night, Derek, about the 2026 Green Bay Packers?

53:33Dave Helman: the two position groups outside of quarterback that give up the worst plays on a football field the floor creating the floor creating position groups are the offensive line and cornerbacks i do not feel good about the offensive line and the cornerbacks on this football team uh in terms of pressure allowed season by season since jordan love has been the starting quarterback 30.3 percent in 2023 pretty good 34.5 percent in 24 uh in 2024 a little bit worse but still pretty good 40.9 last year and there have been slight tick ups in you know his time to throw but even if you adjust for that and do only plays of over 2.5 seconds to throw last year was still their worst mark and then they're going into this year with I think Jaeger Burton might start at left guard for them potentially it's gonna be Banks okay if it is available if he's available

54:22Robert Mays: he's just consistently hurt but I think the plan is for Aaron Banks to be the starting left guard I have more to say on that in a minute.

54:28Dave Helman: Which, I mean, he's not been good even when he's been in the lineup, really. And right guard might be, is it Belton? Is it Jacob Monk? Jacob Monk. Who has been a backup center who I think is a little bit small and not very strong to really move people around in the run game as a guard. At least especially look that way, I thought, in the preseason. And now some of the guys that they're starting week one, like Sean Ryan, for example, he played well for them last year, but he came off the bench to do so at times over the last couple of seasons. So now the fact that he's your week one starter, it's what we talked about it like you're just picking away at your depth a little bit.

54:59Dave Helman: Zach Bacoboile has not really been healthy this preseason. And he's supposed to be your anchor, your best guy.

55:05Robert Mays: And I think that's part of the thought process of making Belton the swing tackle rather than having him get reps at guard is that you're going to have to potentially plan for Bacoboile missing time. And you want to make sure you have a capable option there. Totally. And so I think that was probably the tiebreaker with, well, if we think that Monk and Belton are essentially like a 50-50 proposition. Why don't we just let Belton get the reps at tackle? So if we're put into that spot, we don't feel like we're getting caught with our pants down.

55:32Dave Helman: And that does make sense. But like, either the two things you feel best about on this offensive line are either Sean Ryan, who again was a backup last year, or Jordan Morgan, who has not like consistently played left tackle in the NFL yet. And so I know first round pick pedigree and all that stuff. But the fact that that's the starting point for the offensive line, I'm concerned. The corners, bear with me, because this stat is a little bit specific, but six plus air yards. So we're not talking about the under five yards, like no cover zone for guys. Yeah. Wide receiver targets. So again, like not tight ends running to the flat and outside the numbers.

56:03Dave Helman: So these are like the corner is responsible for what's happening here. The Packers were 30th in EPA per drop back last year. Only the Titans and the Cowboys were worse. Their corners are not good. And part of that is the pass rush couldn't get home. And so maybe that helps solve things a little bit. But I still think that this is a corner room that I have some concerns about.

56:20Derrik Klassen: How would that help solve things? We just said we don't trust the pass rush.

56:24Dave Helman: I guess if Micah gets back at some point, like it can get better. But yeah, if that's the other thing, if the pass rush, we don't feel good about it. I have questions about the corner because the pass rush didn't look that good, especially without Micah last year. This just feels like a team where I still believe in the best of it and like the quarterback and all that stuff. And I do think that when Micah comes back, the front can be decent. The floor stuff on this team is like kind of scary to me.

56:47Robert Mays: I'm worried about the run game was the engine of this offense for so long. And I think that this conversation about letting Jordan Love really kind of take hold of this thing, let him sling the ball around, it all sounds good. And I think without Josh Jacobs, which he hasn't really talked about, removing Josh Jacobs from this thing, I think people are like, oh, there'll be so much more pass heavy. That makes sense to a degree. Part of the reason they're so run heavy is that it creates a floor for the offensive line. You don't want this group dropping back to pass 45 times a game and putting them in those scenarios.

57:15Robert Mays: And so even in a world where it's Marshawn Lloyd and Caleb Johnson for an indeterminate amount of time, I still don't think Matt LeFleur wants to throw the ball 40 times a game because that's not what you want to do to this group. And so if you aren't willing to do that because you're not willing to have that be the construction of your offense and you're a sub 40 percent rushing success rate team, which absolutely could happen without Josh Jacobson with this offensive line. What sort of situations are you putting your team in that stuff we were talking about with the passing game? can you enjoy the fruits of that if so much of the other foundational pieces of the offense are a little bit shaky like that to me is where things get maybe a little bit worrisome about an offense that for the most part you can set your watch to them being a top six unit segues perfectly into

58:00Derrik Klassen: what's keeping me awake at night what if jordan love is this year's cj stroud what if we just

58:06Robert Mays: outlined all that to me i i think that i i even i i think lafleur and the scope position talent's too good like i even with the offensive line stuff i think lafleur and the scope position

58:19Derrik Klassen: talent's too good let's go through this so we just outlined all of the shit that could be bad about this and for the record i mean statistically i'm not even editorializing argue with your mom statistically jordan love is a top five or six quarterback in the league over the time that he's been a starter. He's really, really good. And I think that is a big reason why you just kind of inherently trust that this is going to be okay. I think I agree with you for the most part, but let's just go through this again. I bulleted it all out. LeFleur said on September 1st, but that's Tuesday. It's Wednesday right now.

58:56Derrik Klassen: He said, Zach Bacobiewele and Aaron Banks, he doesn't know if they can play full games yet. So it's impossible for him to set the depth chart. He's also so doom and gloom. Well, he does. He does a great job of making me feel the same way.

59:09Robert Mays: A lot of coaches who are just like, there are some coaches where everything is rosy all the time. It's all going to work out. And then whatever that, whatever the opposite of that is, that is Matt LaFleur.

59:18Derrik Klassen: Good morning, Matt. What's so good about it? Precisely. It's exactly right. Okay. To Derek's point, even if you're right about that, Aaron Banks hasn't been good when he's been available. Jordan Morgan, your left tackle has never consistently played there. hoping like hell for Tucker Craft, but he's coming off of a major knee injury. The receivers are exciting. I can also just give you the flip side of that coin where they're all terrifying for durability and production reasons. Like, that's very real. Josh Jacobs might not play at all this year, depending on how this goes. The allegations are incredibly serious and should probably prompt you to ask questions about his future in football, period.

59:58Derrik Klassen: So if this isn't like a waiting for Josh Jacobs in five or six weeks thing, and you're playing the whole year with those running backs behind a shaky offensive line? You're telling me there's no world where Jordan Love could be valiantly trying to chuck this team into games and falling short regularly and getting his ass kicked in a couple of primetime games and people on TV on Monday morning are saying, I told you this guy sucks. I told you Jordan Love's not good. That feels so possible to me. You made a compelling case.

1:00:29Robert Mays: Even if it's hard for me to fully embrace, you paint a compelling picture.

1:00:33Dave Helman: I think it would be hard for it to look like as bad as the Texas stuff. But the idea that like that's how we think about it, where it's just like this quarterback ends up taking the blame for like eight million other infrastructure problems.

1:00:45Derrik Klassen: It's super smart people like us and the wonderful people that download this podcast. The people who listen to this podcast are smart. We are not. After doing our windspool draft, there's no way we're smart. But smart people are going to know that Jordan Love is better than that. But are we going to have to listen to nine months of dialogue about whether he's worth a shit? It's a good point. I think it is a valid concern and it keeps me awake.

1:01:09Robert Mays: One thing I wanted to say before I move on to mine. We did not mention Brandon Cissé's name. They are really excited about Brandon Cissé.

1:01:17Dave Helman: He's athletically like what you want.

1:01:19Robert Mays: Really, really excited about Brandon Cissé. So if you're trying to build a case for where the cornerback room can be better, I think having him as one of them, I think it's going to be him and Nixon when it's all said and done. And now you make Carrington-Valentine depth, and St. Juice played well last year. If St. Juice is your fourth outside corner, your third outside corner, I do think overall that room is in better shape than it was a year ago. That's what I will say.

1:01:40Derrik Klassen: Cissé being a find in the second round quickly would be such a huge. They are really excited about Brandon Cissé.

1:01:46Robert Mays: Whether that actually comes to fruition or not, no idea. But I can tell you that they are really optimistic about that. So I think the corner room can be improved. You took yours wide. I'm going to take mine even wider. Mine is like big picture franchise consideration type stuff. What's keeping me up at night is after the playoff run in 2023, it felt like this team was playing with house money. They were ahead of schedule. They were so young. Who are we also saying that about after that season? Hit me. The Los Angeles Rams. After the 23 season. Both teams had overachieved, that were just better than we expected.

1:02:20Robert Mays: like, man, I just didn't expect this type of season from these teams. Where are the Rams and Packers in comparison to each other right now? Well, the Rams, if they don't win the Super Bowl, it would be a crime. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites that would be the best roster in the league. This Packers team feels more fragile than it has at any point in the last three years. Even if you paint the optimistic picture of why they can still be good, more stuff has to go right. They are thinner in a lot of these positions. It is a, well, if this doesn't work out, then we're in trouble. Jordan Morgan, Matthew Golden, Lucas Van Ness, all of these things that used to be depth, bolstering pieces are now things that have to go right.

1:02:58Robert Mays: And it might, but if it doesn't, just think about how different the tone, the feeling is now compared to what it felt like three years ago as the other team that was in that spot is now potentially on the doorstep of trying to win the Super Bowl. That's what would be keeping me up at night. Just how much less exciting it feels now compared to what it felt like back then.

1:03:19Derrik Klassen: The funny thing is, one of my first thoughts when you said that was, well, look at all the crazy trades the Rams are willing to do. Well, the Packers traded for Michael Parsons. It's terrible luck that he's not available, and that's not their fault. But, like, they were willing to take swings to get on that level, and they feel further from that level than they have at any point in the last few years.

1:03:39Robert Mays: What does success look like for the Green Bay Packers, Derek?

1:03:43Dave Helman: This division, I think, makes it as hard as anything. Um, I don't know. Like, I honestly think I don't know.

1:03:53Robert Mays: Win the division. Win the FC North. If you do not, how is that a success with this team at this stage based on everything that I just said? That's a good point because they've been the seventh seed, what, three years in a row? They have not won the division in five years. 2021 was the last time they won the division. Win the f***ing division. Yeah.

1:04:09Dave Helman: I think the only reason it makes me hesitant is, like, everybody in the division can do it. Sure. But, like, you should be. Yeah, that makes it more realistic.

1:04:16Derrik Klassen: Yeah. I said it would be nice to be better than the seven seed for a change. Like if they, if they are the five seed and they just narrowly miss winning, you guys are,

1:04:26Robert Mays: you have no ambition,

1:04:27Dave Helman: just cowards. Well, I think I'm burned by last year saying like, you better make the super bowl.

1:04:33Robert Mays: Is it crazy that Matt LaFleur coming off a contract extension in year? It's not. It's not win the NFC North. No, you're right.

1:04:41Derrik Klassen: That should be their aspiration.

1:04:42Dave Helman: It should be their aspiration. I there's this team is just the weird,

1:04:46Robert Mays: for me to get a handle on i will say i'm not picking them to do it by the way this is not like unfound packers enthusiasm this is a what is what do you have to do no i mean this it's they

1:04:56Derrik Klassen: call it title town for god's sake that's that literally was a joke that they're making up there

1:05:00Robert Mays: they don't call it uh i can't remember god what was it uh schneidman said schneidman said it on the thing it was like yeah we we don't call it uh and yeah we don't call it nfc north title town It's title town.

1:05:12Derrik Klassen: And so it's an EPA per play town. Yes.

1:05:16Dave Helman: That's not what it is. Seahawks like hang the DVOA.

1:05:21Derrik Klassen: That's exactly. You convinced me. I mean, if they make the playoffs, I'm not going to be mad at them, but they should aspire to win the division.

1:05:29Robert Mays: All right, guys, before we get to the Bears preview, let's take our second quick break.

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1:07:05Robert Mays: Let's get to the Chicago bears. Our preview for the 2026 Chicago bears. They're off season in 60 seconds. Sign Kobe Bryant. How'd that go? Cam Lewis, Xavier Woods, Devin Bush, Neville Gallimore traded for Garrett Bradbury lost Tremade Edmonds, traded DJ more traded Javon Dexter traded or not traded lost Kevin Byard, Jaquan Briscoe, Nashawn, right? Smythe, Andrew Billings, and Chauncey Gardner Johnson in free agency in the draft. Dylan Thienemann in the first round, Logan Jones, Sam Rauch, Xavier Thomas, Malik Muhammad and Jordan Vandenberg. Again, mentioning both of them because they might be involved in this thing pretty quick.

1:07:41Robert Mays: What are you most excited about, Derek, as it relates to the 2026 Chicago Bears?

1:07:47Dave Helman: It's the Caleb Williams show. And let me I'm just going to leave this. We've talked a lot about him. I'm going to say my favorite Caleb Williams set that exists at this point. And I don't even know if it means anything. I just love it because it looks cool. There are four games in the last decade in which a quarterback threw 40 passes. At least 40 of them traveled 15 yards. And that quarterback won the game. Honorable. Extremely honorable. Aaron Rodgers did it in 2019 against the Lions. Patrick Mahomes did it twice in 2019. So mind you, 2019 when offense was like juice. We were playing a fake game at that point.

1:08:23Dave Helman: But guess what?

1:08:23Robert Mays: Ben Johnson's playing a fake game every week. Exactly.

1:08:26Dave Helman: the other game is 2025 Caleb Williams in the wild card game, his first playoff game ever against the rival Green Bay Packers. That quarterback is awesome.

1:08:37Derrik Klassen: That game was so crazy, man.

1:08:41Robert Mays: I mind just expanding it to the offense in general. I'm on record about this. There's a lot of consternation about the overall quality of this team. We'll get into why I'm on record saying the offense has a monstrous ceiling. Monstrous. They may not reach it, but the ceiling for this team, if things click into place, is astronomical. From week five on last season, I said this on the offensive draft show, I might as well say it again. Fourth in explosive play rate, fourth in EPA per play, seventh in offensive success rate, first in EPA per rush, first in rushing success rate. From week five on the past four years, Ben Johnson's offenses have ranked no lower than sixth in EPA per play.

1:09:20Robert Mays: That's crazy. That's insane to me. We have a play caller who has shown a consistent ability to produce these sorts of results with a group of players that, while still young and still needs to take a step collectively, has just nuclear potential. I mean, like the combination of Luther Burden, Colson Loveland, Roma Doonze Healthy, and Caleb Williams combined with this running game. We say the sky is the limit sometimes, and we don't really mean it. The sky is the limit. Whether they get there, I do not know. but I am excited to watch them try.

1:09:57Derrik Klassen: I can't wait to see specifically the skill players. And much like Jordan Love with his receivers, it's so contingent on Caleb continuing to be good and hopefully getting better. We will talk about it. But, and we, you know, I think the first time you said it, I know Colston Loveland was good. I know he was good last year. Like the first time you said he might already be like a top five tight end, I kind of, I like side-eyed you a little bit. the numbers completely back that up in like whatever way you want to take it, like pull up the metric. The only guys that were consistently in front of Colston Loveland, when you're looking at tight ends and what they produced last year are Kittle and Trey McBride.

1:10:37Derrik Klassen: And in some cases, even they aren't in front of him. Like he really was that good last year. I'll be it in a smaller sample size, but still there's so much reason for excitement. Luther burden, same, but to a lesser degree, like Colston Loveland's they're different conversations to me.

1:10:52Robert Mays: The burden thing is still far more theoretical. There's more projection. The Loveland thing is already real. Colston Loveland.

1:10:59Derrik Klassen: It feels so real. And by the way, the only thing where he wasn't on top of the position was target share. He only got 15 % of the Bears targets. Do that from week 10 on though. It's like 24%.

1:11:10Robert Mays: It's back after the season. Keep it up. Keep it up.

1:11:13Dave Helman: And I think it will. Because once he got in the lineup, they were like, that guy's insane.

1:11:18Robert Mays: He is the most important piece of the passing game.

1:11:20Dave Helman: He just is.

1:11:22Robert Mays: Like it's, this is one of those things that I've just said it with a lot of, in a matter of fact way, all off season, but just, it's just because I believe it. Like he's the best player in the passing game. Yep. He is going to be the centerpiece of what they do offensively. He's the most important and best player. And you already see it. And when you watch, not even just, we said this yesterday, he was second in EPA per target among all tight ends last season behind George Kittle second, but even beyond the quality of the targets and the quality of the workload, the ways that they're using him, he's closer to Brock Bowers than he is to the field.

1:11:57Robert Mays: Oh, yes. Absolutely. When it comes to deployment and just the things that he can do. And that happened in the back half of his rookie season where he didn't have an early part of the season because he was hurt. The guy's going to be really good.

1:12:11Derrik Klassen: I firmly believe that. I'm giddy about the opportunity to watch these guys. And that doesn't even include Roma Dunze and what he could potentially be. I mean, there's just so much reason to be excited about what this offense could do.

1:12:24Dave Helman: And that's the thing. All of these skill play, like including the quarterback, Caleb Williams, first overall pick. Roman Dunze was what? The eighth overall pick. Colson Loveland was what? Tenth. And I know Luther Burden went a little bit later, but like if not for his last season at Missouri being kind of weird, he was a top half of the first round. He was talked about as a much higher pick.

1:12:41Derrik Klassen: People thought he was wide receiver one,

1:12:42Dave Helman: potentially going into that.

1:12:43Derrik Klassen: For much of his college career. He is.

1:12:45Dave Helman: Yeah. And so the fact that it is that level of talent with, again, a play caller who is like, at minimum, the fifth or sixth best offense he's going to print out of it. Like, it's, I don't see how you could not get excited about this offense being insane.

1:13:00Robert Mays: So that brings me to what I'm watching the first month of the season. How much crisper does this thing feel overall? Because that is still the thing that needs to happen. We can talk about the potential, and we can talk about the explosiveness, we can talk about the talent all we want. This thing needs to be smoother than it was a year ago for us to realize the benefits of whatever this is. You look at it last year, just very plainly and clear. Per NextGen, Caleb Williams was 22nd in passing success rate last season. He finished behind Tua, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, Jacoby Percet, just some of those names.

1:13:33Robert Mays: That stat is not an end-all be-all. They were much higher in things like EPA per target, or just EPA per dropback. The explosive play rate is obviously huge. They are hunting explosive plays. They don't want to be a team that is just staying ahead of the sticks consistently. But even with that in mind, even if it's only one stat, you feel that when you watch them. The inconsistency is incredibly real, and it was for a million different reasons. We talked about this at length when we were doing the Caleb Williams conversation on the Lingering Question Show. This is a product of so many different things.

1:14:06Robert Mays: He had 42 throwaways last year, which led the NFL. 29 drops, which is third in the NFL. The amount of contested 50-50 bang-bang plays that did not get completed last year that could have been because Rome isn't 100%, whatever. It's just messier than it needs to be. And I think the quarterback's ball placement is a huge part of that, but there are other elements to it as well. We've heard all summer, if you've been paying attention to this team, the command, the control, the comfort level compared to a year ago when it felt like they were all drowning in training camp. Let me see it. Show it to me.

1:14:40Robert Mays: Have this thing feel clean and crisp and refined in a way that it did not last year. unlock all the stuff that we're talking about. That's what I'm watching over the first month of the season, because if that stuff can get ironed out, oh boy.

1:14:55Derrik Klassen: I doubt the Bears will ever look like a peak Lions offense because Caleb doesn't, you don't want Caleb to play that way anyway. Like you want to hunt the explosives. You want Caleb to play past three and a half seconds when it makes sense. The Lions are an explosive offense. They're an explosive offense in a very different way.

1:15:11Robert Mays: They're a ball distribution explosive offense.

1:15:13Derrik Klassen: Having said that though, my God, would it be fun to see them flirt with the level of efficiency that the good Lions offenses have had? And I like, you can marry those two things. I think it is, it is a challenge with what Caleb innately brings as somebody who should be extending plays, but it's definitely possible.

1:15:32Robert Mays: We talked about this with the other, this is the last one I'll say talking about the off target rate and some of the accuracy numbers and just the idea of Caleb Williams as a creator, their creation, the creation part of the offense last year, The scramble to a part of the offense last year was objectively so bad. It was bad. And it's a number I brought up before this summer. As a scrambler, as a passer last year, so just scrambled attempts, 20 of 59, 30.5 % success rate on those plays per next-gen, negative 0.14 EPA per play, 63.4 % completion rate in structure last year, 20 of 59 when scrambling.

1:16:07Robert Mays: so if they if the variance on extended plays shifts back into their favor this year this idea that Caleb Williams is like this crazy play merchant or all this stuff is happening out of structure is just incorrect like that didn't happen last year it's like a matter of like

1:16:22Dave Helman: remembering very specific moments because the best ones are like insane like that play in the

1:16:27Robert Mays: playoffs happened yes there weren't that many of those during the regular season and so if that stuff can start to happen a little bit more if you're getting the positive end of that variance in out-of-structure moments, that's another area where, again, the offense can just feel a little bit more consistent because so many of those plays ended in frustrating incompletions where you're punting the ball on third and eight last year.

1:16:48Dave Helman: And even a lot of them, too. Caleb Williams threw the ball away a lot. Like, there were just a lot of plays, yes, where he would get out.

1:16:53Robert Mays: He had 42 throwaways last year.

1:16:54Dave Helman: Yeah, he would get outside the pocket and just be like, ah, play's dead. And it's like, if we can turn those into five-yard scrambles, five-yard completions here and there.

1:17:01Robert Mays: Or even not getting to the scramble part. Yeah, if we don't have to do that, yes. to me is the refinement and crispness that I'm talking about. In the first two and a half seconds of a play, more of that this year is how this thing takes a step forward.

1:17:15Dave Helman: Yeah.

1:17:16Robert Mays: I'm sorry. I'm really monopolizing the Bears conversation here. It was kind of going to be inevitable. Let it all out. Derek, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Chicago Bears?

1:17:26Dave Helman: I mean, yeah, it's to me is in the same category. But like to me, I think sometimes when we're thinking about like offensive or defensive play callers, it's like, what's the evolution? because like you're itching because maybe they need it. Like Ben Johnson, I trust that something will come.

1:17:39Robert Mays: It's not about whether it's going to happen. It's what it's going to be.

1:17:42Dave Helman: This is like a, this is where you know he's in Sean McVay territory. Every year going through a Sean McVay season, it's not about like they need to iterate. How are they going to fix this? It's like, man, they're going to do something awesome. Like what is it going to be? And with Ben Johnson, I'm like, man, they're going to do something really cool. I want to see what it's going to be. And so I really don't even have a hunch as to what that might mean. You know, they draft Sam Rauch. Maybe they think he can give them a little bit more with some of the three tight end stuff. And they're a little bit less deep at wide receivers.

1:18:11Dave Helman: So maybe they would want to do some of that. But like, whatever it's going to be, I'm incredibly excited to see it.

1:18:17Robert Mays: I think we're going to see a lot of that. Because Rauch just gives you, even if he's a young player, it's going to take a little while for him to come along. You can really streamline his role early on. And I think right now, it's probably their second best personnel group. after the 12. And their 12, we've talked about this, is unlike almost any other 12 in the league right now. When you compare, like, very few 12 personnel teams have two guys who are capable pass catchers and capable blockers. It's what Buffalo wishes they were. That's exactly right. Yeah. That's exactly right. The idea of what Buffalo wanted with Kincaid has come to fruition.

1:18:50Robert Mays: Like, Colston Loveland is Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

1:18:53Dave Helman: Yes. And then they also have Dawson Knox. Yes. And we already have a Dawson Knox at home.

1:18:58Robert Mays: Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Chicago Bears?

1:19:02Derrik Klassen: I should probably let this go because I do trust Ben Johnson, but it's worth bringing up. It's worth bringing up. I'm just going to keep a close eye on the offensive line and make sure that we don't, that we're not missing something by hand waving this away. Because right now, I think Braxton Jones is the week one left tackle, unless Ozzy Trapilo really does make the fastest recovery from a patellar tendon tear in the history of mankind, I assume. Like that happened in the wild card game. And he's on the roster, right? Like, yeah, he's not even on Puppet. He's not on Puppet. I see him right here behind Brackton Jones on our list.

1:19:40Dave Helman: Ben Johnson was, he was like, yeah, we're, you know,

1:19:42Derrik Klassen: we're hoping for the best. I'm like, how is this happening? So I'm keeping an eye on that. And then I do, I, I've said this before. I really admire the job that they did acquiring Gary Bradbury. I still think he's not as good as Drew Dahlman. And I think, you know, how you adjust the menu and tune the dials of like what you want to call, particularly in the run game, because he's not a mover and a displacer. He's not a displacer.

1:20:09Robert Mays: Yes, I think that's the thing.

1:20:10Derrik Klassen: When I say mover, I mean like people mover. Pushing people off the line. So how do you call that to suit his skill set? Although the main thing I want to share here is the fact that I laughed out loud when I pulled up Garrett Bradbury's mock draftable draft prospect profile. Do you know who his closest comp is? It's Logan Jones, isn't it? It's Drew Dahlman. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yes.

1:20:32Robert Mays: They have a type.

1:20:34Derrik Klassen: No, the fact that they, like, Drew Dahlman retired, and they were like, where can we get Drew Dahlman? And brought him in. They have a type. I think it's going to work, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking at it.

1:20:46Robert Mays: I have less concern about the healthy version of the offensive line. I think that Bradbury can be 80 % of what you got from Dahlman last year. I think they can hide the left tackle because they had two last year.

1:20:58Dave Helman: Yeah, they already did it.

1:20:59Robert Mays: They had two last year. And Braxton Jones looked shaky in the preseason.

1:21:03Derrik Klassen: My caveman brain will not allow me to just say left tackle doesn't matter.

1:21:07Robert Mays: I can't get there. You can hide it. And they did last year all season. You're right. It was Braxton Jones. It was Theo Bennett. And then it was Ozzy Trapillo. Ozzy Trapillo was not good last year. It's still not. It's still not. He was the best of a bad collection of options. That part of it, I trust their ability to do it. Braxton Jones doesn't look good in the preseason. You're not giving help to the left tackle in the preseason in the way you're going to when you have to game plan things. If the line stays healthy, I think it'll be okay. My concern is if guys start getting hurt in ways they didn't last year, what does that do to the offense?

1:21:40Robert Mays: You were on the positive side of offensive line injury luck last season. Dolman, Thune, Jonah Jackson, and Darnell Wright missed a combined one game last year. All four of them played 1 ,000 snaps. That probably isn't going to happen again. And so if we're trying to figure out reasons amid all this optimism with the skill talent and Ben Johnson and everything else about why there could be some regression for the offense, the offensive line health luck from last year is what I would point to.

1:22:06Derrik Klassen: No part of me believed that Logan Jones would take Garrett Bradbury's job off the rip, but it sure is nice to have him there. That part is nice.

1:22:14Robert Mays: Everything else is, even though they do have seven left tackles, so if the left tackle gets hurt seven to play one you're not none of those guys theo benedit isn't replacing what you got in darnell right no that that's not happening who's also we haven't mentioned him yet he's also a difference maker when you're talking about the explosiveness of this offense all right let's change the tone of this what is keeping you up at night dave about the chicago bears it is is it a side of the ball we have not yet mentioned up to this point in

1:22:42Derrik Klassen: the preview you're probably thinking we're planning the super bowl route through downtown town chicago um every single thing about the bears defense not only nightmare fuel not only keeps me awake at night but drastically alters my opinion of this team like i could talk for another 30 minutes about all the things i can't wait to see about this offense i'm terrified of the defense i assume it's going to be bad kyler gordon is officially on pup and by the way everyone in the building seems to hate him. I don't know what's going on there. It's a very strange situation. Kobe Bryant, you already mentioned.

1:23:19Derrik Klassen: Cam Lewis is your starting nickel. I do think that for a mid-August signing, you could do a lot worse than Xavier Woods. He's hurt. Is he hurt too? He's banged up. Yes.

1:23:31Robert Mays: They're in a spot now. I was going to say,

1:23:34Derrik Klassen: Xavier Woods is a nice mid-August signing, but you don't want to be making mid-August signings if you have real aspirations to do something. We're in a spot now.

1:23:42Robert Mays: with the bears where because Xavier Woods has been banged up throughout training camp, it sounds like they might have to start Cam Lewis at safety and have Malik Muhammad, who was their fourth round pick started nickel. Cam Lewis has played less than 300 in safety snaps combined over the past three seasons. He was like a nickel in dime looks player for the bills. So this entire thing is just unsettlingly unstable in, in so many different areas. we talk about the what's keeping you up at night thing is like a theoretical thing for most of these teams this is literally what is for you this is this is close to home and mine is like

1:24:22Derrik Klassen: i just don't know if the defense has the horses at all man just imagining like robert's wife comes downstairs at some like shaking it he's just like doing the dishes at 2 a.m just like

1:24:34Robert Mays: gray jarrett what are what what are we gonna do the only part of that that's not true is i don't do the dishes in my house but i i it'd be it's when i'm taking out the trash just like muttering to myself just being like oh my god die would never go more there's there's no there's no

1:24:52Derrik Klassen: piece of this unit that really excites me i guess what you told me before we started recording like if jalen johnson is the guy i remember that's exciting and that could go a long way towards

1:25:01Robert Mays: stabilizing this thing the problem is the entire and my mind what's mine is the same as you guys The defense is a house of cards that could come crashing down at any moment. That's what's keeping me up at night. The entire argument, the entire spin for optimism as to why this could be a better defense this year was health in the secondary and improvements in the secondary. It was getting Kobe Bryant. It was Kyler Gordon coming back healthy and Jalen Johnson coming back healthy. If you only have one of those three, how can you possibly feel good about where this is? You can't. And this, to me, even in the best case scenario, if all that stuff had come to be, you're still worried about the pass rush.

1:25:38Robert Mays: This team last year finished dead last in quick pressure rate when bringing four, dead last. That's partially a Dennis Allen stat. It's partially the way their defensive lines play in more of a react attack sort of way. But even when you consider that, they finished dead last two years in a row before Dennis Allen even got there in quick pressure rate when bringing four. The pass rush was not good last season. You're banking on some combination of Dio coming back and Austin Booker saving you. The fact that we're just obsessed with a sixth round defensive tackle because of how little hope there is with so many of the other defensive front pieces speaks to where this team is right now.

1:26:13And overall, other bigger picture stuff,

1:26:16Robert Mays: plus 22 in the turnover differential last year, 104 total EPA on turnovers, 20 more than the next best team. They were seventh in EPA per play on third down last season, behind only Seattle, Minnesota, Denver, the Rams, Patriots, and the Eagles. They were 10th worst in EPA per play on early downs, Fifth worst success rate. Third down is volatile. Third down and turnovers are volatile. Those are the only two things that sustained this team last year. This is a product of multiple just wasted years in the offseason on defense. The top 100 picks on defense of the Ryan Poles era. Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Briskard, Javon Dexter, Tyreek Stevenson, Zach Pickens, Shamar Turner.

1:26:57Robert Mays: The free agent signings with at least$10 million guaranteed of the Ryan Poles era on defense. Grady Jarrett, Dio Odombo, Tremaine Edmonds, Yannick Ngakwe, Demarcus Walker.

1:27:10Derrik Klassen: That's depressing, man. It's pretty bleak. This is what keeps me up at night.

1:27:14Dave Helman: That is like, that sort of hit rate would, I mean, that would get you demoted in the MOB. Like, that is terrible. I know this doesn't really.

1:27:23Robert Mays: Ben Johnson has helped a lot.

1:27:25Derrik Klassen: He's doing a lot of lifting here. I know this doesn't really matter because turnovers are mostly about luck and variants and bounces of the ball. I do think it's interesting that this is the Al Harris point. Well, well, Al Harris is good at coaching DBs to get pissed. He better be because they led. I mean, they led the league in takeaways. They led the league in interceptions. They had 23. 19 of them are gone. The guys who caught those footballs left. Yeah. So we'll find out just how good Al Harris is at this. I mean, he's got a track record, but somebody's got to step up and get these footballs.

1:28:01Robert Mays: This was a 10-year situation with Kobe Bryant and Kyler Gordon.

1:28:06Dave Helman: Now it's worrisome. Like, at this stage, which position group do you feel best about? Is it linebacker in which you're hoping for TJ Edwards to be healthy and Devin Bush to have not been like a one-year flash in the band?

1:28:17Robert Mays: I'm a DeMarco Jackson guy, so no. Who is coming off the bench. Yeah.

1:28:20Dave Helman: Who is good off the bench.

1:28:22Robert Mays: You can't feel good about most of it. Like maybe the defensive line can be better this year. Maybe Grady Jarrett's healthier. If Vandenberg can give you something. Again, Dio and Austin Booker did not play together last year. This is the most cop shit ever. Like trying to talk yourself into that. Better to what end?

1:28:36Dave Helman: To be like the 21st best defensive line of a ball?

1:28:39Robert Mays: You just can't feel good about that.

1:28:40Derrik Klassen: You just can't feel good about it. Do you and all your Bears fans, friends, and family, do you feel like a monkey's paw sort of situation where you used to pray to like a photo of Walter Payton for a good offense? Yes. and now you have it and this defense is going to make the monsters of the midway roll in their grave. Be careful what you wish for.

1:28:59Robert Mays: That's where we are with the 2026 Chicago Bears. What is success for the 2026 Chicago Bears, Derek?

1:29:07Dave Helman: I think you leave this. I'm a little bit less. I know that they won a lot of games last year. I'm not so much worried about the wins and losses for this team. I think if you come out of it and you are certain that the young players on offense are like for the next five years absolute dudes including the quarterback obviously I feel pretty good about this as long as you don't win like seven games like you should be in the mix till the end at minimum but like I think if we all feel good that next like moving forward Caleb Williams can be one of those dudes and one of Loveland Rome or Burden is like holy shit that

1:29:38Derrik Klassen: guy's insane we're good here I've been consistent about this all year get more out of Caleb feel rock solid about the skill players when the season's over I would say if that happens you'll be in the playoff mix anyway exactly my thought right but i don't really care i don't care if this team makes the playoffs if that stuff happens i my my guess and my expectation is that this is the most fun 500-ish team in the league and whether or not they make the playoffs is kind of immaterial

1:30:08Robert Mays: i'm glad you guys have said that because i wasn't sure where i was going to land on it because part of me does feel like it's kind of cowardly to be like oh it doesn't matter if they don't make the playoffs i i think exactly what you said is right and i'll read verbatim what i wrote the offense proves itself to be a machine you have to worry about for years to come the quarterback's development being the key part of that that's enough to get you a playoff spot i don't know if it's enough to

1:30:30Derrik Klassen: get you a playoff spot you it's enough to have you in the conversation that's probably right yeah

1:30:35Robert Mays: that's that's probably more correct i think it's more that when you go to the divisional round the idea of not even being a wild card team the next year even if there's so much else to be excited about is a little bit depressing. It's a little bit of a letdown, but I think you guys are probably right. And the last part was you can convince yourself you can fix the defense next offseason. Yeah. Oh my God. Which you theoretically will have more resources to do.

1:30:55Derrik Klassen: Imagine the news cycles and talk shows in this city if the Bears, if the Bears have the season we just described and then they can get some contracts off the book and spend on defense next year. This place is going to be insane with Hopium. If they finish like

1:31:10Robert Mays: 14th in offensive DVOA, I have to leave the country that's true yeah that would be bad i think i think i have to quit the job go to that restaurant copenhagen you were talking about earlier i if it honestly if i stopped covering the nfl i think i would just go live in copenhagen i think that's the only thing preventing me from

1:31:26Derrik Klassen: living there to the point that you made lest it sound like we're letting the bears off the hook it's probably an organizational failure on ryan poles and the people that came before ben johnson's fault that they're not in a better position to take advantage of this but i can't put that on the 2026 chicago bears like they have you're right up a lot over the last three or four years but these are the cards you have right now and if you come out of it feeling confident that

1:31:53Robert Mays: caleb is the guy i think it's okay yeah i mean you have one more cheap year after this right next year is year four to get the most out of the rookie quarterback contract and some of the other

1:32:03Dave Helman: rookie got rookie deals that you're working off right which like you always want to use that but like if you come out of next season not caring at all what you end up paying him huge one oh that's

1:32:12Robert Mays: to me i would love the idea of when we get to the end of this year there's not even there's not a number that would scare you about what he should be paid that to me is another part of success yeah because right now there should be he needs to take that little bit of yeah we were we're treating it as like a foregone conclusion a little bit that he's going to be that sort of guy i need to see it and i want to see it i believe it can be true but that's been my i've held that line the entire offseason and I will continue to hold it. Let's get to the Minnesota Vikings. Our preview for the 2026 Minnesota Vikings.

1:32:39Robert Mays: They're offseason in 60 seconds. Hired Frank Smith as a senior offensive assistant, which I do think matters. Brought in Kyler Murray, Ryan Vandermark, James Pierre, Jawan Jennings. Lost Jonathan Allen, Jalen Naylor, Javon Hargrave traded away Jonathan Grenard. In the draft, Caleb Banks in the first round, Jake Golday in the second round, Big Citrus, Dominique Orange in the third round, Caleb Tiernan in the third round, and Jacoby Thomas. do we not say harrison smith also lost harrison smith he does not a relinquished for now which is why i forgot him for now whatever's going on we will talk about it what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 vikings david we finally get to unwrap the kyler murray mystery box

1:33:20Derrik Klassen: been talking about this since i was thinking about this this morning we've probably been talking about it since november of last year like when the cardinals benched kyler and it was obvious that he was done in Arizona. That was when the first inkling that this could happen came into your brain, and then it obviously happened, and now we've had an entire offseason to sit on it. And we had a fun back and forth about this at our live show. The last time Kyler Murray started a full season, he was an above-average NFL quarterback. He was actually one spot better in both EPA per play and success rate than Minnesota Vikings' Sam Darnold, which is a very fitting place to start this whole conversation if you combine 24 and 25 he still has

1:34:05Dave Helman: a higher epa per drop back than sam donald so even with the fact that he's like not yes the fact that

1:34:10Derrik Klassen: he's like not in his stratosphere isn't said to be he was good in 2024 i mean much like we talked about with jacksonville a few days ago the cardinals were six and two and trying to mess around and win the nfc west midway through that season it fell apart in the second half as it so often did with the Arizona Cardinals when Kyler Murray was there. Maybe that'll happen here too, but to even have a quarterback that could get you to six and two and have you excited about the second half of the season would be nice after the year that the Vikings have been through. His numbers are really promising

1:34:44Robert Mays: in a decent but not great Arizona situation. Even if we can, and this will be part of the discussion, I think, this idea of Kevin O 'Connell and the quarterback whisperer and everything else and maybe us being a little bit more down on that idea than we were a year ago after the J.J. McCarthy thing. Even if Kevin O 'Connell is 75 % of what we made him out to be last offseason, with Kyler Murray, probably enough. Probably enough. Probably enough based on what we've seen from Kyler Murray.

1:35:07Dave Helman: And, like, that probably is unfair to Kevin O 'Connell. Like, I think it, like, J.J. McCarthy probably just wasn't good enough. Some guys can't be saved. Yes, some guys can't be saved. Some guys can't be saved. It's just going to be what it's going to be. And so I'm like, I think that this will turn out good. And I think, like, to build on what you're saying, like, in the world where I think Kyler Murray will at least be playable, when Justin Jefferson has a playable quarterback, he is unbelievable. He is. Give me the stats. Every his average season before 2025. So this is including when he's a rookie and when he missed seven games in 2023.

1:35:38Dave Helman: 99 catches, 1480 yards and eight touchdowns. That is his average season.

1:35:44Derrik Klassen: It makes me so happy that Justin Jefferson was complaining about losing clout last year. He was just like, everybody forgot I exist.

1:35:53Robert Mays: He is the best example we have in recent memory of it only takes one year. The idea that you could have the first five years that Justin Jefferson had and then one year with a guy that was drafted in the first round that was immediately ejected from his from his job was enough for us to just be like Justin Jefferson. Is he really that good anymore is insane. It's truly insane. We were having knockdown drag out fights about who was better between him and Jamar Chase. And it just completely ended because of one year where Jamar Chase continues to get to play with Joe Burrow. And we got J.G. McCarthy in Minneapolis.

1:36:27Robert Mays: I know Joe Flacco played last year. I know that.

1:36:29Dave Helman: This is not the takeaway from JSN at all. His season was incredible. But what Justin Jefferson's average is like a barely worse than what JSN did last year. As the offensive player of the year. To win the offensive player of the year. Justin Jefferson's pretty good. I'm just excited to see him feel free and play like himself again. Because the numbers are down, and part of that is quarterback play, just not getting him the ball. He was clearly frustrated when they were playing. He just was not himself.

1:36:54Robert Mays: He's one of those guys that there is such a joy in the way that Justin Jefferson plays. And to watch that joy sucked out of Justin Jefferson was a true bummer last year. I'm excited that we might get the glint back in Justin Jefferson's eye this season.

1:37:07Derrik Klassen: We've talked so much about the Vikings supporting cast. everybody gets that but like this undoubtedly has to be the best the best cast of players that kyler murray's ever played with right undeniably like i mean he had he had mcbride for a year the year where ironically he could not get him into the end zone and marv was on that team and young michael wilson and then in 2021 when they went 11 and 6 it was christian kirk the arizona version of A.J. Green and the Arizona version of Zach Ertz as well and DeAndre Hopkins was there as well but

1:37:41Robert Mays: the Arizona version of DeAndre Hopkins the offensive line was never good this is it's it's

1:37:46Derrik Klassen: so unquestionably better than anything Kyler Murray's been given to work with I'm most excited

1:37:51Robert Mays: about the entire experiment on offense the quarterback being part of it what is the court what does the offense even look like passing game wise yeah what are you going to ask of Kyler Murray because I think there are things that Justin that Sam and I'm just like removing 2025 from my considerations when I talk about who the Vikings want to be offensively. When I look back at the 2024 version of the Vikings, the amount of work that they were able to do and damage they were able to do in the intermediate to deep part of the field, especially like outside the numbers, Kyler Murray, his best strength to me as a quarterback, as a passer, is his touch on intermediate to deep passes.

1:38:23Robert Mays: It's beautiful. And if you think about some of the big sale routes they want to throw, he's really, really good at that stuff. And so I do think Sam Darnold led the NFL and passing yards on intermediate and deep routes in the seams and outside the numbers in 2024. Kyler Murray, that's what he does well. The element that to me is a little bit harder to square. Kyler did a decent amount of under center play action in Arizona, but it's a lot of like big guitar fakes where you're getting them outside of the pocket afterwards. There aren't a lot of plays where he's setting up in the pocket off play action.

1:38:54Robert Mays: Sam Darnold did a shitload of that in 2024. 49 intermediate and deep attempts off under center play action from the pocket in 2024 for Sam Darnold. Believe that was the second highest mark in the league for next gen. Kyler had 12 of those. So even in a world where he was using a decent amount of under center play action, his frame just doesn't allow you to do some of the same things they were doing with Darnold. So I think that looks a little bit different. So it's not about can this work? I do think there are so many things they want to do that align with Kyler's relative strengths. I just think structurally you're going to have to figure out some things you didn't have to figure out with Sam Darnold just because of who Kyler is.

1:39:32Derrik Klassen: I don't necessarily disagree with you, and he did play more under center. It's not a crazy outlier the way that Burrow is in Cincinnati or obviously not Jaden Daniels' first couple years in Washington. He's still, post-Cliff Kingsbury, he was 31st in the league in under center snaps during the Cliff years, and it ticked up, but only to 26. Yeah, they're still a gun-heavy team. He does it, but he's still, he was, he's in 2024, the year that we just gushed about as being pretty good. He was top 10 in shotgun rate. And so, and the Vikings, since KOC got there, they're second in the league in under center snaps.

1:40:09Derrik Klassen: Darnold did it all the time. Kirk obviously did it all the time. And they're top five in under center play action as well. Kyler has done it. Kyler can do it. How well can he do it? If that is like, are the Vikings going to do it that much? Or do you kind of have to adjust the sliders?

1:40:24Robert Mays: And that's what I'm curious about. And I'm curious about how it also relates to the run game. Because when I talk about the experiment overall, they are really excited about the run game. Like what they're seeing, the early returns on it.

1:40:36Derrik Klassen: They hired Frank Smith. I think you were on your training camp tour when we did a show about them hiring Frank Smith. And I spent some time digging into everything they're doing with their run game. And it's pretty exciting.

1:40:49Robert Mays: They're extremely excited about this. We'll see if that's warranted. But they're extremely excited about it. They were a middle-of-the-pack rushing success rate team last year, which was better than they were in the Darnold years. But I feel like they believe that there is, like, a real jump potentially on the horizon here. And I don't think that's crazy based on personnel considerations. Their offensive line last year, they played with the second most offensive line combinations in the NFL last season, 17 of them. Only the Chargers had more. And beyond the shuffling, even when Christian Derusaw was playing last year, he was not himself.

1:41:22Robert Mays: No. he is the way that he looks right now in camp they think he can be like an all pro player and so if that's going to happen with just more stability across the board for a team that already had an average running game and the other part of it to me that's so interesting the run game in miami even as an outside zone team was incredibly gun based in part because of who tua is well now if you want to do that again you have a quarterback you could add to the run game yep so now you have this Miami run game that was dynamic and scary and really good over the last few years and you can start reading shit on the backside because you have Kyler Murray it's I don't know if it'll

1:42:04Dave Helman: work but the idea of it is who was the fact that there are the fact that they were finally an average run game last year with considering the factors considering nobody cared about what was happening at quarterback and passing game for them because it was so limited and how many different guys were playing banged up when they were even in there and then yeah darisaw who is supposed to be like your star on the offensive line not fully looking like himself if any of those factors can change and get a little bit better and you can add the quarterback run game and this is a run game that like they have depth at running back like they have two guys that are like viable threats

1:42:36Robert Mays: for them and so i think jones will be more of a change of pace right but the fact that he's still good at that at this age is like you gotta worry about his touches you always had to especially at his age you have to that's i've taken jordan mason in every fantasy league yeah every single one just because if the run game has that sort of ceiling and he's gonna get 15 carries a game he's never gotten 200 carries ever in a season if he does that he's a thousand yard back he's in

1:42:59Derrik Klassen: this offense he should be absolutely i'm trying to hold back on getting too excited about day three draft picks in these previews but damon clayborne you want to talk about juice in the run game and obviously he's third on the pecking order i don't expect him to get a ton of work but as a guy with real home run speed that you could insert into this thing in specific situations i think that's something worth keeping an eye on the other day three pick that's worth mentioning

1:43:22Robert Mays: before we move on from this they drafted a fullback in the fifth round they sure did and that that they're gonna use that guy oh he's playing a lot in the preseason they're gonna use that guy and so i'm excited to see what happens with the run game this might be one of those training camp it's all sunshine and rainbows and bullshit and it doesn't end up actually working out, but there is real optimism about what they are building over there. Go watch the first run they had in the first preseason game. It's an outside zone to the left. They hit it for 19 yards. It already and sometimes this stuff takes a while to click.

1:43:52Robert Mays: They already feel like they're on the screws with what their run game has been. Let's get to what we're watching the first month of the season. Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Minnesota Vikings?

1:44:04Derrik Klassen: I've been joking since Friday night of the draft that Brian Flores took control of this year's draft and they took four big time defensive draft picks. And I just want to see how quickly those guys are ready to roll, what they look like. And I think there's cause for optimism. I think, unfortunately, some of this looks exactly as realistic as we thought it might. Everything I've read and seen and just watched with my own eyes about Caleb Banks kind of confirms why that was an eyebrow raising pick for me. I'm not here to shit on the guy's career he's hasn't played a regular season game that's he hasn't played much football exactly that's the problem like divorce yourself from the idea that I'm trying to render judgment on the guy's career but at this point in time he told it he said himself to reporters last week I'm not in shape right now I he was rehabbing a foot injury that was the big thing that raised questions about him as a draft prospect it limited his offseason Nobody's upset about this.

1:45:06Derrik Klassen: This was part of the deal. Brian Flores talked about it. Brian Flores has been very complimentary of his approach and, you know, how he'll develop and work his way into conditions. He's made of the right stuff. It sure seems that way.

1:45:17Robert Mays: I think that's the thing they're excited about, but you have to acknowledge the gap that currently exists.

1:45:21Derrik Klassen: And it's a bummer to not have high expectations for a top 20 draft pick. We've talked about how we need these rookies to infuse this thing with some young talent. Caleb Banks might be that guy by December. I mean, that's the hope, right? Is that Caleb Banks can give you something over the course of his rookie year. I don't expect him to give you much in the first four weeks of the season. So that's already a little bit of a bummer. Dominique Orange looks very fun. And I'm not just saying that because Flores dropped him into coverage in a preseason game. Like he looks like he can help you as a run defender right away.

1:45:53Robert Mays: Correct. Yeah, that's the thing is like Orange will be a bigger part of what they're doing early on than Caleb Banks will. And I think by a considerable amount.

1:46:00Dave Helman: And they need that because, again, they need it.

1:46:01Robert Mays: That's the part of Justin. They need this shit.

1:46:04Dave Helman: Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were cut from this team, but those were financial decisions. Those players were totally acceptable players for them, especially in run defense last year. And so they really do need Dominique Orange to step up. Because like Jalen Redman is solid and Levi Drake Rodriguez is solid.

1:46:17Robert Mays: I think Jalen Redman's a really good player. Right. But this is thin without the young guys.

1:46:21Dave Helman: Other guys. There was a point in time where Jalen Redman was coming off the bench for them to be really good. Yes. Now it's like he's the dude and you need waves behind him now.

1:46:29Derrik Klassen: One more bright spot. 69 preseason snaps isn't a huge sample size, but Jake Golday looks exactly as fun as I thought he might be. He does look good. Flores was sending him off the edge. He was sending him through the A-gap. He had 11 tackles and a pressure in the preseason. And so just as like, you know, a jack of all trades, a guy that you can use to get pressure in unconventional ways, I think he'll have a role pretty quickly.

1:46:53Robert Mays: And I honestly think they might have to start using him as an edge player at times. They just signed Kyle Vannoy, which we didn't say, because they signed it after I made that list. They were really thin on the edge. Like it just, we can talk about just the defense overall, but I think the young guys, it's not a matter of simply curiosity with the young guys on this team. You feel like they have to contribute because of what the defensive makeup is currently. And so that's where I'm at. Like not only just the rookies, what do we get from Dallas Turner, right? Who's still a young player. It's a huge part.

1:47:21Robert Mays: It is now a, we need Dallas Turner to be that guy. And I think there's optimism that he can be, but kind of reminds me a little bit of the Packers conversation where we're in a place of times now, man, where there's no waiting for these guys. We need them to be contributors based on what the other construction of this looks like. Let's get to what's keeping us up at night about the Minnesota Vikings this year. Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the Vikings?

1:47:45Derrik Klassen: At the start, I said, we get to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box. And this is the part where I say, we have to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box. What if it's not good? What if it sucks? You know, I don't know. I used a lot of my notes in the previous segment, but I've been talking about this incessantly since last November, and I'm super intrigued by it. I'm pretty confident it's going to work.

1:48:11Dave Helman: That's what I was going to ask. I was like, heart of hearts, where are you at with it?

1:48:13Derrik Klassen: I think it's going to work. I don't know if the Vikings are going to go 14-3 or anything like that, but I think Kyler Murray is going to give this team good quarterback play, above-average quarterback play. I believe it. Maybe I just want to believe it, but whatever. This is where we are. It's not cutting time, but that doesn't change the fact that it might not work. And it's going to be disappointing for me personally. It's obviously going to be disappointing for the Vikings. It raises a shitload of questions about Kevin O 'Connell if it doesn't work and where this team goes at quarterback and who should be tasked with identifying that quarterback.

1:48:50Derrik Klassen: And on top of that, the Vikings just won't be very entertaining for another year, despite having a pretty good roster. And that's depressing. And I like watching Kyler Murray play football. I hope it doesn't happen.

1:49:02Robert Mays: Let's stay depressing. Mine is, what if a return to capable quarterback play, even if we concede that, even if we give him quarterback 16 this year, what if that's just not enough? That's the scariest outcome. That's terrifying. That is the scariest outcome. We spend so much time saying, if they just had a quarterback. So let's play this out. That is really bleak. Let's say he's quarterback 16. let's say they're the 11th best offense in the league, which we can talk about the supporting cast. Supporting cast is excellent. If the run game is better than it was in 24, we've talked about this, in 24 they weren't a top 10 offense.

1:49:36Robert Mays: That's partially because of the running game. But if you're a quarterback 16, you can only be so good offensively. You need everything else to go so well. Let's just in this hypothetical say they were a top 12 offense with Kyle Murray playing as quarterback 16 through 20, which I don't think is an unfair framing of what could potentially happen.

1:49:54Dave Helman: That's up to this point in his career, up until 2025, 16 to 20 was the worst that you could ever put him in.

1:50:01Robert Mays: Yes.

1:50:01Dave Helman: And so, like, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume he can at least get back to there.

1:50:05Robert Mays: So let's say that. And let's say they're the 10th best offense in the league. What if the defense takes a significant step back, which we were going to talk about here. That's worth keeping you up at night. The defensive personnel. Look at the Vikings defensive depth chart. Brian Flores has been incredible. Right. But if he can make a top eight defense out of this thing, we should just build his Hall of Fame bus now. Like that would be an insane achievement. So let's just say this year, they are the 12th best defense in the league on top of being the 12th best offense in the league. In this division, what does that do for you?

1:50:39Robert Mays: You probably finish nine and eight. Same as last year. Let's look at it this way. If that ends up happening, how many more elite units exist in the division over what you have? A lot. I mean, the Packers offense, the Lions offense, the Bears offense. Like you might be a 500-ish team that misses the playoffs. Okay, now let's take it a step further into the offseason. What do you do? You put yourself in a spot where you're not sure if paying this guy is the right move, but how can you not do it? Like you almost have to do the Daniel Jones thing.

1:51:15Dave Helman: Yeah, do you want to go four years in a row with a different quarterback?

1:51:17Robert Mays: And then if you do the Daniel Jones thing and you're paying Kyler Murray$40 million, you're then paying full freight for a quarterback. You already have a lot of expensive pieces on the roster. You already have, you still have a ton of holes defensively like that. I don't like this. It's not even to me. It's not even an unfair reading about the season. It's like a middle of the road outcome. But then when you start to play it forward, it's like, it's not worst case scenario, but it's also not good. And I honestly think that is the most likely path here. So then you have to decide, if we're not going to pay him$40 million,$45 million, $50 probably with inflation, do you want to take your chances in the draft again?

1:52:00Robert Mays: With where they will be picking. But if they're picking 17 and you got to maneuver up again, even if there's five quarterbacks in the first round, you're picking quarterback five again. And so, again, I don't think this is the most charitable or least charitable vision of the season, but I don't think it's some far-off fantasy.

1:52:21Derrik Klassen: You said 11th offense, right? Yeah. If they're 11th in offense, you find a way to keep Kyler around, whether it's the tag or depending on the size of the deal he'd be willing to sign. But 11th is pretty good considering where you just were.

1:52:36Robert Mays: You're 11th paying him a million dollars.

1:52:38Dave Helman: And I agree with that. But then if the defense does take the step back, even if you're like, okay, we found a guy who can do it, you just feel worse about it. Like I think in the world where the defense falls back to like 12th, which that's like if I were ranking defenses, that's probably about where I would put it. Like, I think they'll take a step back. I still think they'll be good. I still think they'll destroy some of the bad quarterbacks in the league because that's what Brian Flores does. Being an 11th best offense is like the worst outcome. Like if they're the fourth best offense and this is just nuclear and looks like the Colts or something, you are pretty, I think you're pretty.

1:53:10Dave Helman: Which can happen. Which can happen. That's on the table. Listen, I know the Colts did so many cool things last year and they have some really good players too. If Daniel Jones can be the hottest thing in football for two months, I'm pretty sure a significantly more talented player in Kyler Murray also has that possibility to do that. But you either need that to happen or for the Kyler Murray thing to go so bad that it's just like off-ramp, screw it, this is done.

1:53:30Robert Mays: And I think both of those are more far-off possibilities than it just being kind of an acceptable way to land. So your answer was specific about the defense. You're worried about the secondary.

1:53:43Dave Helman: I think I'm worried about the secondary. And this is me like, I think this was my answer last year. Yeah. And I think the talent on the secondary is worse than it was last year. At least you still last year had some of the like, you know, if Harrison Smith is still in the building, he's still a veteran for you. And, you know, again, maybe that'll actually still happen this year. But like, I think to me looking at a secondary that is Byron Murphy, Josh Metellus, Theo Jackson, Isaiah Rogers, Jay Ward. Byron Murphy is the only player there where I'm certain they are a good football player.

1:54:10Robert Mays: How dare you talk about James Pierre that way?

1:54:12Dave Helman: How dare you?

1:54:13Derrik Klassen: He refuses to give any credit to Metellus always.

1:54:18Dave Helman: They are acceptable corners. They need more than acceptable secondary players here.

1:54:24Robert Mays: Here's why I think this is a different situation than even last year. Last year, having Harrison Smith allowed you to use Metellus the way that you want to. He can be a box player. Last year I was on half the snaps, but that was partially just because of how much base they played. Without Harrison Smith there, you lose two things. you lose the flexibility you want from the tell us because even if you're excited about a jacob thomas who's an undrafted free agent this is still like we're talking about undrafted free agents like it's even if you're excited about players like that having to play metellus in the deep part of the field in part because you lost jamal adams you lose the flexibility you like on the back end and with the harrison smith thing the communication they were metellus is going to have to do that stuff.

1:55:04Robert Mays: And so I think getting Harrison Smith back to unlock every bit of flexibility schematically that you have, we talked about this. They've got like four calls in the huddle based on what's going on. Harrison Smith was the channeler of that. So getting Harrison Smith back to be that and to be able to use Metellus the way that you want to, because there's so many questions about the quality and depth at safety. I feel like you have to do it. Like whatever he wants, like pay him 10 million dollars and put five void years on and who gives a shit because i do think that is the material difference even if he's not the player he used to be of this secondary last year compared to what it currently looks like in this moment he's this is the time where you would do

1:55:46Derrik Klassen: that though and they haven't done anything i we'll see i mean it's still a week i think we'll see

1:55:52Robert Mays: that i think that is possible because he can play tomorrow yeah and there's no like in this yeah he We don't have to worry about a ramp up period for Harrison Smith. Let's talk about what success looks like for the 2026 Minnesota Vikings. I feel like we kind of just danced around it. You got to put a fine point on y 'all harshed my vibe.

1:56:10Derrik Klassen: If I'm being honest with you, what was your answer? I said, quarterback's good. Defense is solid. This is a playoff team. But then on the bottom of that, I said, at the very least, finish the season with some confidence that Kyler is your guy and you don't have to do this shit for another year. but having listened to y 'all the the path that leads to wanting to pay kyler wanting to pay kyler not feeling like you have to important distinction is a narrow one and that's scary

1:56:43Robert Mays: i don't know if it's that narrow i do think it's i do think you can easily talk yourself into it like i think success is every bit of enthusiasm we had about this offense and this infrastructure and the support staff coming out of 2024. Do we have it again? Yes. Do we have it again? That's exactly why I'm at. If we have that, and even if you're a 9-8 team because the defense takes a step back, but you can talk yourself into the multi-year outlook for the offense, I think that's okay. I think that part is okay. I don't think you have to make the playoffs for this to be considered a success. I think you have to reestablish the way that we see the people associated with this organization.

1:57:23Robert Mays: Flores has it. That's in cast in amber. The O 'Connell offense part of this, can you get the most out of Kyler? The paying him thing, all that stuff, we'll handle that when we get there. But that, to me, would feel like success.

1:57:35Dave Helman: If we feel the way we felt about KOC and Kyler Murray in 2024, that will be a success. They will be where they want to be. And again, to put my last point on why I do think the Kyler Murray thing should work, we've obsessed over the reclamation quarterback over the last handful of years because a lot of guys have made it work. like Baker Mayfield made it work, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold. Some of those guys are really talented and also went first overall. And like Sam Darnold's arm is unbelievable. Kyler Murray's highs before he became a reclamation project were objectively significantly higher than any of those guys.

1:58:08Dave Helman: And he's unbelievably talented. Like I just, I have faith that this thing is going to work.

1:58:13Derrik Klassen: If all that's true and I agree with you, I just, I think playoffs should be the goal. And I think it's fair to say expectation for that matter.

1:58:22Robert Mays: I just I have my concerns about the defense. That's the only reason that I'm not just writing it in. Because again, if they're a middle of the pack defense, and they're the eighth best offense in the league, I don't think that's a crazy outcome. And you might not be able to make the playoffs in this division with that. And I still think that would be a success.

1:58:36Derrik Klassen: We have really big concerns about all four of the defenses in this division, but we ascribed playoff aspirations to everybody else.

1:58:43Robert Mays: I think the offense, the off the heights of the offenses in the other places are not theoretical. We all saw those offenses finish as top five units in EPA per play in the final two-thirds of last season. I think Green Bay is a little more theoretical than you do, but we've seen them do it. We just quarterbacking this coach every single year for the last three years.

1:59:01Dave Helman: I think that's a good way to frame it. I think if literally any offense in this division finished in the top six, I'd be like, oh, okay. The one I would probably have the most questions about doing it is Minnesota. Even if I believe in it, it's just like we have not seen it. We have not seen the quarterback and play caller.

1:59:16Robert Mays: It's okay to wait and see what you think the quality is going to be. Yeah. All right. That is all we've got for the Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North. We will be back tomorrow wrapping things up when the NFC West, our eighth and final division for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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