2026 NFC South preview

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1:02Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. The division preview series rolls on today with the NFC South. It's probably the weirdest division for a whole host of reasons. Dave, I think, said a success is for every single team to win the division. I'm not sure we have another one like that. The only team without a team at the table. The only division without a team at the table. A lot of strange considerations with this one. It led to some really fun conversations. So let's dig into the NFC South preview with me, Dave and Derek right now.

1:42Digging into the NFC South today, like the other episodes that we've done, we're doing this in order of divisional odds, not in order of last year's finish. So for anyone who's going to be upset that we're doing the Bucs first, that's the reason, at least for being consistent over all the shows. the Lord's division been looking forward to this one ready to talk some NFC South football without giving anything away. I don't think this is a spoiler. This is the only division where part of my defining a successful season was when the division for all four teams, that's the, that's the bar you have to clear the I'll say the, what stood out of this division is there were multiple categories where I just didn't have a good answer.

2:23And it wasn't even for lack of enthusiasm, There is I just think that these teams are in such a weird middle ground state that we'll get into it. There were some things like what's keeping you up at night? Nothing. Nothing about this team could push me to a place where I would be concerned about their them on any larger level. You're not losing sleep about the 2026 Atlanta Falcons. That one actually was a couple answers, but there is one team that we'll dig into. Because like being up all night, it suggests that you have like super high aspirations for the team that could be nuked. And it's like for a lot of these teams, it's like somebody's got to win the division.

2:57But none of these feel like like probably every other division in the NFL has like a Super Bowl contender on some level. And I don't know if the NFC South has one. We have a table. They were the only division where there is no team on the table right now. I'm staring at these helmets. Lest I sound too glib, I am genuinely excited to talk about this division. There's there's stuff here. There is definitely stuff here before we sound like we're writing the NFC. Oh, there 100 % is. It's a weirder division than all the other ones. And so I think that it just took a little bit of a different approach with pretty much every single installment of this.

3:31Let's start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're offseason in 60 seconds. Brought in Zach Robinson as the offensive coordinator. Brought back Kate Otten in free agency. Signed Alex Anzalone, Kenny Gainwell, A'shaun Robinson, Al-Kadeen Muhammad. Lost Mike Evans, Jamel Dean, Logan Hall in free agency. In the draft, Reuben Bain, Josiah Trotter, Ted Hurst, Keontae Scott over the first four rounds. With each of these teams, we're going to kick off the conversation with what you are most excited to watch in this upcoming season. Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited to watch in regard to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

4:05I think the Todd Bulls defense might kind of be back. I think this front seven specifically might wreck shit and just like explode people's faces. like Vitavia, you know, he's got his contract now. He should be happy. A'shaun Robinson is on this team. I think him being just like one of your other solid starter, help you in run defense goes a really long way. Some big old boys. Some big old boys. Reuben Bain is technically not large, but he's a very stout man who wants to kill everybody that gets in front of his pass. I mean, the poor Chiefs tight end that he, when they dropped him into coverage, which obviously love that seeing that from Todd Bowles, but they drop him into coverage and he just puts a tight end in the ground.

4:40That was amazing. Josiah Trotter, the linebacker they brought, or they drafted in the second round after Bain. He's been hitting people in the preseason. Alex Anzalone is an upgraded linebacker. Like they brought in so many difference makers, I think, up front. Hopefully you get Klaja Kansi healthy. It's just like there's a chance that this unit just feels vastly, vastly different than it has the past couple of seasons. I have the same answer. I think it's just the injection of youth in that group as well, along with, and I would include Kansi as part of that. He didn't play last season. He barely had a season.

5:10He barely had a season last year. Remember when he got back in that Bucs game at the end of the year? I was like, is that Kalijah Kansi? And that's the year we had from Kalijah Kansi last year. He got hurt on Monday Night Football against the Texans. And the Bucs were very exciting in the first six or seven weeks of the season. And that was like the first thing that went against them. And yeah, he didn't pop back up until he showed back up in December and was like, what the hell's been going on here? So we have Kalijah Kansi coming back. We got Reuben Bain dropped into this thing. Zaya Trotter, like Derek mentioned.

5:39Yaya Diaby had a really good season last year. if you just look at the overall production as really the only real threat as a pass rusher other than Vitave on that entire team. They had Hassan Redick, but obviously Hassan Redick is near the end. And so this does have a chance to be a transformed group. There's part of me, I'm already like contradicting myself by saying that I'm excited to watch this. There's part of me that thinks we might be getting a little bit over our skis based on like three Ruben Bain clips from the preseason. But I'm willing to do that. I'm willing to get overly excited about him and this group overall.

6:09But there's part of me that in the back of my mind, I'm like, are we doing this a little bit too fast based on three or four plays we saw in the preseason? They made him a Bane Batman face mask. How am I not supposed to be excited about that? That's the reason that that's that's why it's going to be this going to work out. They're going to be good. It's based on what we have to go on. It's just fun. Let's have some fun. That's that's I'm letting myself do that. It's also letting myself do that. It's not just Bane and it's not just the front. I basically agree with y 'all, but in general, the Bucs defense kind of suddenly looks younger.

6:39And a big part of that, I don't think we've brought him up. Levante David retired, and it's going to be. I don't think I mentioned that. It's going to be sad and surreal not to see him in a Bucs uniform, but it was time based on the way he was playing last year. And he could have come back and served a role, but I don't want to remember Levante David that way. And so like Vita Veya is an older player. Antoine Winfield was a rookie on the Super Bowl team. But for the most part, that core of guys that won them that Super Bowl with Tom Brady has mostly phased out of this thing. And now it's Reuben Bain.

7:12You're hoping Kalijah can't see healthier. Yaya is still a pretty young player. And then the secondary is just loaded with young guys. You lost Jamel Dean to Pittsburgh, who he's only 29, but he's a third contract cornerback. Like, that's fairly old. Jacob Parrish was exciting last year. Tykee Smith. I know Derek and I love Tykee Smith. We haven't seen a ton of Benjamin Morrison, but that's another highly drafted guy from last year that you can insert into this thing. And just all of a sudden, Keontae Scott might play the nickel for this team. Keontae Scott, you want to talk about overreacting to the preseason.

7:44Keontae Scott was having some fun in the second preseason game against the Chiefs. They were blitzing him. He was the draft community was very ready to be excited about Ruben Bain and Keontae Scott. That is the first glimpse of the preseason. Definitely part of it is that these are these are draft Nick crushes who are living up to the billing. We'll see how that ages during the season, but they just have young, explosive, exciting guys on a unit that didn't feel that way for the last couple of years. And so I'm I'm incredibly excited to see what it looks like for each of these teams. We're going to chat about what we're watching the first month of the season, just as a curiosity, something that you feel is a lingering question heading into the same season, something you want a little bit more clarity about.

8:25I'm going to kick this one off. Where does this version of the Bucs offense fall on the spectrum of the ones that we've seen over the last few years? And I mean that in terms of quality. And I also mean that in terms of approach. You look at last season, they were 23rd in passing success rate. Tampa was in the second half of last year. This was not a good offense after that initial stretch when we were talking about Baker as potential MVP candidate. You can figure out why that is. Mike Evans was hurt a good chunk of last year. Ibuka gets hurt at one point last year. Baker's dealing with a shoulder injury.

8:57The offensive line, it's funny that the offensive line, as it got healthier, the offense got worse. But for the most part, there was still a lot of extenuating circumstances in terms of health and personnel as to why the offense fell off, on top of the fact that by the end of the season, they needed to replace their offensive coordinator. And so do we get something closer to the 2024 offense when this is a top five unit by every conceivable measure and it gets Liam Cohen a head coaching job? Or are we sitting closer to the 20th, 22nd best offense in the league that feels outmanned, outgunned, incapable of doing any real damage as we get deeper into the season?

9:36Where we fall on that spectrum between those two poles, Derek, to me is going to go a long way in determining just how real this Buccaneers team feels over the course of the year. And I think a big part of that too, and this kind of segues into where I was thinking of it, like Bucky Irving was not healthy for a lot of last season and he was and when he was not field he was not good though his numbers last year are heinous he he was a bad player last year but his rookie year he was electric for them like he was just so good at all the stuff they were doing and where that leads into my point is I'm I'm kind of curious on what the run game looks like because they still have their offensive line coach Kevin Carberry who was there with Liam Cohen when it was a lot more gap scheme it was pulling guys it was and I think that's not just what the offensive line is good at which I think it is like Tristan Wirfs can move all their guards can move the center can move it's also that I think Bucky Irving is just good at that like he's very quick he's like very willing to read that stuff out and get downhill on some of those stuff I don't really think of him as much as like a wide zone one cut runner and so them being a little bit more gap skiing makes sense to me but they bring in Zach Robinson as offensive coordinator he's coming from a spot where it was all outside zone like the Falcons were all outside zone really for the last handful of years and obviously different offensive line coaches but i wonder how much of that he's bringing over or is it going to be a lot of the old run game stuff they have been used to doing my assumption is that it will be the old run game stuff that they're used to doing because i don't think zach robinson is somebody that given his druthers would just have a 31st ranked gap scheme run team i think that was mostly a product of duane letford coming from that world and that being what he was really comfortable with in atlanta over several different coaching staffs.

11:13I mean, the Falcons, if you look at where they ranked in percentage of zone runs every single year when he was there, it was up near the top of the league. And I think that's mostly because he wanted to play that way. I felt like they were trying to figure out ways to incorporate other types of runs into what they were doing over the last couple of years. And there really wasn't a cohesive way they could do that. And I think that's part of what I'm really curious about, period. Bucs were third in total gap scheme runs last year. The Falcons were 31st. Atlanta, 80 % gun last year, which is one of the highest rates in the entire league.

11:4431st in the NFL last year, the Falcons were in the percentage of play action they use. That's all from true media. Where do we fall in that stuff? I assume it's going to be more under center. I assume it's going to be more play action. I assume it's going to be more gap scheme run. And I think that kind of Derek changes and shifts the way I think about the quality and capability of a Zach Robinson offense, because I do think they did some interesting stuff over the last couple of years, but because they had kind of boxed themselves into this weird corner schematically where it was a lot of pistol and it was a lot of gun and it wasn't a lot of play action, it really did feel like there was a disconnect between what the passing game and the running game looked like.

12:23And if we can find a more cohesive marriage between those two things with this offensive line, with a skill position group that there are some questions about, but I still think can be a fine group by the end of the season, Are we talking about a team that can get to be like a top 12 offense again? Because I think that's where my concerns about the Zach Robinson era in Atlanta are. It just felt like it was a little bit of a hodgepodge where it never felt like everything really had cohesion with every aspect of what they were trying to be offensively. And I think you can figure out a reason for that.

12:54You can tell yourself a story about why it felt that way. Do we get to a place in Tampa where it does feel like it's all a part of a bigger hole that is in service of them being a good offense? how much you're telling yourself a story but how much of that do you think is very specific quarterbacks that you're it's 100 % what it was I think that's exactly why they wanted to play that way and they they're I mean you look at the we're in the preseason they're under center like their first five plays of the preseason I don't I don't think this is going to be like a shotgun pistol team that's I don't think a lot of the things they did in Atlanta I don't think those are things that Zach Robinson believes in his bones I think they just did them because they thought that was best for that group of players and this is a different group of players that's what I'm excited to see because Baker, even if he's, you know, kind of an imperfect quarterback, he can do everything.

13:38Like he can do the under center play action stuff. He's pretty good at being in the gun and throwing empty. And because I mean, 2023, when he started to kind of have this revival was a little bit more gun. We're just kind of like five out in the route, throwing drop back stuff, all that jazz. And then 2024, it was a little bit more of a mix with that stuff on top of some more of the under center gap scheme play action with Liam Cohen. Obviously, 2025 was so up and down because a lot of the injuries and they just I think when you had so many young players at pass catcher on top of all the injuries it was just hard for them to figure out exactly what they wanted to be in the passing offense but I do think if there's anything that I really did enjoy from watching Zach Robinson's offenses it's how he was able to get get guys in and out of the slot with like quick motion like him just being able to they played so many tight stacks and then they would just shoot the number the whoever's the inside player shoot them out to the number one now you have a new slot player just little stuff like that to create in this offense matchups for igbuka or if mcmillan looks healthy or if chris godwin still has something in the tank like i do think if that part of the offense can stay and he feels less hamstrung in some of the stuff he has to do because the quarterbacks aren't so specific and the offensive line is going from being really specific zone heavy to like we can do anything because we have monsters you can start to sell yourself on why this offense could get back to closer to something like 2024 i was looking at some of the numbers of the offensive line from last year and their most used group they had out there on 35 % of snaps that was it that group was Tristan Wirfs at left tackle Graham Barton at center Luke Adecki at right tackle with Mike Jordan and Dan Feeney at guard that was their most used offensive line group and that was still only 35 % of snaps their second most used offensive line group to get them to 50 % of snaps had Luke Haggard at right guard and Charlie Heck at right tackle.

15:23So we just never saw the Bucs offensive line at any point last year. And obviously, Cody Mock missed almost the entire season, but even not accounting for him, the other four guys, we never saw them play together for any extended stretch last year. And so them getting a normal amount of offensive line health. And I think overall, they finished either 28th or 29th and adjusted games lost on offense. But along the offensive line, I think it was even worse. Nobody wants to hear this when you go from six and two to eight and but their offense was a mess all year long. And Baker played the whole season, but he wasn't right.

15:54No. Hopefully that can course correct this year. So what do you watch in the first month of the season? I don't think you could drop a better example of how quickly life changes in the NFL than the receiver core because Emeka Ibuka was a luxury pick and everybody was like, did you need to do this? Well, at least you have the best receiver core in the league now. And one year later, Mike Evans is in San Francisco. actually don't even fast forward a year Jalen McMillan broke his neck in the preseason which was the start of this whole thing and obviously Evans got hurt Godwin was down for a good chunk of last year so Ibuka goes from being a luxury pick to the centerpiece of this then he gets hurt and now heading into 2026 it's Ibuka who right now is dealing with a toe injury that is week to week according to Todd Bowles and Chris Godwin is at full health but He was drafted in 2017.

16:49And he's had a variety of devastating injuries. The last two years have been tough on him. I mean, I'm hearing all of the best shape of his life. Zach Robinson's going to put him in the slot. Chris Godwin's ready to carry the load for this offense. I hope that's true, but, I mean, it's been a long career for Chris Godwin. It blew my mind when I was looking at Chris Godwin, and he's only 30. Like, in NFL years, you could have told me he's like 42 years old. So, I mean, you're counting on Chris Godwin turning the clock back. You're counting on Jalen McMillan coming back from a very, very serious injury last year and being somebody that looks exciting and continues that trajectory.

17:27Ted Hurst is fun. I also think they kind of need Ted Hurst. Yeah, like you can't really afford for Ted Hurst to be like a guy that's not doing stuff for you. I just think about skill set wise. When you move on from Mike Evans, even if you've got a lot of other guys in the building, you don't have a lot of other guys who are giving you what Mike Evans was giving you. Who's the vertical outside the numbers player in a collection of receivers that has Chris Godwin, Mecca, Buka, and Jalen McMillan? I do think it's fun that Zach Robinson's let me have my guy acquisition was David Sills. Like he's hanging out here now, if that counts.

18:01But that's not enough. I don't know if that counts. It would be better for everyone if Ted Hurst was useful as a rookie. the fact that Ibuka is already coming into the season banged up is just to me like a big flashing light that I'm not feeling very good about well and this was like this is really my more like what's keeping me up like do we ever get the best version of this wider seat that's where I sit with we already did that's where I sit with it how many snaps did we get of Evans Godwin and Ibuka last year I know they were they were definitely healthy for chunks of the year but it wasn't a lot it wasn't a lot and I like you just laid out I don't know if there's reason to believe we're gonna get that this year like Egbuka was banged up for a lot of last year with the hamstring thing and he's coming into this year with a toe injury McMillan had a neck sprain and like even if he's theoretically been healthy this offseason that's just like a very difficult injury to try to figure out how a guy is gonna look coming off of that pretty consistently Godwin missed about half of the last two seasons combined and like you said he's getting up there a little bit in age and then Ted Hurst I think has shown some stuff but it's like it's still a mid-round rookie and you don't really know what that's going to give you right away and so I think the best version of this receiver court if they're all healthy and they play in their 85th 90th percentile outcomes it's like a top five unit in the league I just it's easy to see how like one or two dominoes start to fall out of that and it just doesn't feel like that unit the Godwin part of that playing at an 85th percentile outcome already feels like it's off the table like I just can't imagine what that would even look like at this stage and maybe that's wrong maybe I should to have more faith in his ability to bounce back and be closer to that level of player.

19:34But I want to see that first. I just think you're putting such a huge burden on Emeka Ibuka to be the centerpiece of this passing game. And I think I'm OK with that based on what he showed as a rookie when he was healthy last year. But the fact that he's already banged up coming into the year, that just makes me itchy. Because I think, like you're saying, Derek, it feels like we're already far away from what the best version of the guys whose names you see on paper could potentially look like. And that includes, with Godwin and Ibuka, the two most important pieces of that. Let's talk about what's keeping us up at night about the 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

20:10Dave, let it rip. What is keeping you up at night about this team? I first had this thought about a week ago because the Jags and Bucs did a joint practice, which, first of all, I saw that and was like, well, it's nice that the feelings aren't too hard after the way things happened with Liam Cohen there. And he was going to come back to the Bucs. and then he changed his mind and there was all this subterfuge. But as soon as I thought about that, I was like, oh man, it's tough if you're a Bucs fan, probably to hear Liam Cohen giving quotes about your team as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

20:43And what keeps me awake at night, even as a Bucs empathizer, as a fan of Baker Mayfield, it keeps me awake at night thinking that this is as good as it's going to get for the Buccaneers. And if it doesn't get better, you're probably talking at the very least about a head coaching change. I don't think Jason Light is in any danger, but Todd Bowles is probably out if the Bucs don't win the division. And so they win the division, maybe even if you win the division. Sure. Yeah. Depending on how you win the division. Yes. And how you look in the playoffs, which is something I think we should talk about.

21:13There are a lot of outcomes here that lead to a coaching change. Baker is in a contract stalemate. He voiced his frustration with it at the beginning of training camp. So you're not tied to the quarterback. Maybe that's a good thing. And you might be moving on from the head coach if this season doesn't go well. And the thought of where the Bucs were heading into last season and how excited I know I was really excited about them and where it felt like they might be able to go. If you're tearing it all down a year and a half later, A, that sucks. And B, a guy that I feel incredibly good about is coaching the franchise like right up the interstate from you in Jacksonville.

21:50And that sounds really shitty. If you're a Buccaneers fan, I wonder what tearing it down really looks like where so much of the roster is getting younger. Like we said, tearing it down for me is okay. New coach, new quarterback. You got to hit that. And then if it's not Baker and I'm not even trying to say you can't upgrade from Baker Mayfield, but what does that look like? It'd be hard to do. How hard is it? You are probably going to win between seven and 10 games. And it's like being in that sort of purgatory where you, you don't know the answers to those questions. sounds tough, especially.

22:24And a really big part of it for me is Liam Cohen being in your building and leaving for another Florida franchise. And he's right there and spitting distance of you coaching another team. Mine is adjacent to this. I think what's keeping me up and out about the Bucs is just the idea that this whole thing has run out of road. And I think the offense has been so up and down based on who the play caller has been. That's a different consideration. But for me, I look at the defense and this is kind of where I sit with it as we look at this group, even with some of the additions. I'm excited about the young front seven pieces, and I'm excited about that group being remade.

22:56And there's a chance that the combination of Josiah Trotter and Reuben Bain and Elijah Cansey coming back just makes this group feel like it has so much more pop than it did a year ago. But when you look at the Bucs defenses over the last four years, essentially since Bowles got there, I feel like we don't talk about this enough. When we get to the end of the year, they're getting barbecued by people. consistently. In the back half of last season, and I know part of this is about the pass rush, per NextGen, they allowed a 55 % success rate when blitzing in the back half of last year. 55%, which was, I think, bottom three in the league.

23:32I don't know exactly where it ranks, but I'll tell you 55 % is very bad. The Bucs have played four playoff games since 2022, when Todd Bowles got the head coaching job. They've allowed an EPA per drop back better than 0.15 in one of those four games. It's been.15 or worse in three of those four games. .15, just for context, would be a top five rate in essentially any NFL season. That's a really, really good quarterback play. The one game in the playoffs where the Bucs allowed an EPA per drop back better than.15 was against the Eagles in 2023 when the Eagles were actively imploding. Yeah. If you look at weighted DVOA and just when the games at the end of the season are weighted heavier than they are at the beginning of the season.

24:1823rd last year, 23rd in 2024, 14th in 2023, 26th in 2022. So we're hanging out around the bottom quarter of the league every single year by the time we get to the end of it. And so even if the talent in the front seven is considerably better than it was, and maybe that's enough and I'm open to that, but even if that talent is better, you're still really young on the back end. You're moving Jacob Parrish outside to a position he's never played before. And I'm just wondering if this defense's structure and approach gets to a place at the end of every season where people are like, I could pick on this.

24:54I know what this is. And I think the talent has to do a ton of lifting to make it feel different than that by the end of the year. And while I'm open to that, it's keeping me up at night that it just might not be enough. I mean, it's the same issue we sometimes run into. we ran into this, I think, with the Steelers defenses. You mentioned that when we were talking about the AFC North. I think sometimes Dan Quinn's defenses, even when they're really good, can be like this. I mean, there was, what year was it, 22 or 23, when they were like the best defense in the league and Jordan Love and the Packers just came in and absolutely shredded them?

25:25Like, stuff like that can happen to some of these defenses because I think the hallmark of some of the best defensive play callers is that by the end of the season, they're tinkering with stuff and throwing stuff that they didn't normally do. Like, Brian Flores last year was running a little bit more man towards the end of the season because I think it was like okay we've got to add something we have to be a little bit different in that way um the Houston Texans when they played the New England Patriots they ran cover one like that whole game which is not something that they really do like they were willing to live outside of what they normally do and so if we don't see enough of that from Bulls towards the end of the season I think that would be pretty concerning and I think the good thing about how this roster is the defensive roster especially now is constructed I said the last couple of years, I think I could sort of get myself there on living with the fact that maybe Todd Bowles isn't one of the elite defensive play callers, but that it was a personnel problem.

26:15The linebackers were not good. The defensive pass rush did not have enough. But now like you've got new and exciting explosive players. If they can't do it now, I think you get a pretty clear answer on whether or not this regime is going to be able to get you over the hump or not. And maybe that's a positive way of looking at it is that we've done enough now where we're going to get a clear-cut answer by the end of this whatever that answer looks like but what's keeping me up at night is that the answer is going to be on the wrong side of the ledger yeah that's despite what baker mayfield thinks which he you know he said everybody thinks we're going to be terrible that that's not true everybody in the world thinks the best division yeah everybody in the world thinks the bucks can win this division the hard thing can you be terrible and also be the best team in the nfc south is a worthwhile question fair enough the The Bucs won't be terrible.

27:02I don't think so either. But the hard thing is to truly exceed expectations, like for real, what would that take? Because everybody thinks they can get to the playoffs. But what would exceeding expectations be for the Bucs? I want you to get to that. And we'll talk, I mean, do you want to talk about what success looks like for the Bucs? Sure, yeah. What is success for the 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers? We're going to do this for all four teams. Win the South and look like you belong in the postseason. That's the part of it that's important to me. prove that the defense can have some teeth in december and january don't get shish kebobbed by whatever offense you happen to play in the wild card round if you do make the playoffs and i think if you don't make the playoffs it's absolutely not a successful season especially in this division i think for me it's this one is like weirdly specific but i the nfc i think is going to be tough i think there's going to be a lot of good teams towards the top i think you specifically don't want to be the fourth seed division winner and play let's just say it's the seahawks or let's just say the lions are a really good second like second team coming out of the nfc north i think if you have to face the best of the wildcard teams i'm a little bit scared there you need to be a good enough team that you are elevating yourself i think above that before we get to the panthers let's take our first quick break you know that hoodie you can't stop reaching for?

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31:29Let's get to the Carolina Panthers, our preview for the 2026 Carolina Panthers. Their offseason in 60 seconds. gave offensive play calling duties to Brad Edzig, brought in Jalen Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, Luke Fortner in free agency, lost A'shaun Robinson in free agency, drafted Monroe Freeling in the first round, Lee Hunter in the second round, Chris Brazel, RIP in the third round, and cornerback Will Lee. Eric, what are you most excited to watch with the 2026 Carolina Panthers? There's just a lot of young skill talent on this team. Like Ted Rowe McMillan was immediately good as a rookie.

32:07You can just say Ted Rowe McMillan. We're not going to hold that against you. Listen, that's where I'll say 85 % of my excitement is rooted in. But they do have some other guys. Keep in mind, the Panthers are the team of gigantic people. Derek loves this team, other than the tiny quarterback. But everybody else is huge. Exactly. Ted Rowe McMillan is huge. Jalen Coker, when he was able to play last year, he was good. They were obviously excited about him coming into the season. He didn't get to play the full season. uh jonathan brooks it's you know who knows what we'll get from him but the fact that this seems like the first time we're going to actually get to see him play i think is exciting and then i think even some of the other smaller guys that they have like mitchell evans is a totally nice tight end for them like they just have their young core of guys who are catching passes and touching the football is pretty good and exciting both in terms of the top line and the guys they have at depth the mcmillan coger pairing and that's really what this is for me and i just think it's a cool not even even overall quality I think it's a good tandem of one and two receivers I think JL Coker is like a good NFL receiver but I also just like stylistically that you can move them both around they get they're big enough where you can have him play a variety of roles they're kind of interchangeable Coker is a willing and really capable blocker if you want to use him on some of the insert stuff he's a tough rugged player McMillan has had such a great rookie year like Those two guys, I just really like them.

33:30I like them as players. And even if the offensive line is shifting and there's other stuff we could talk about with the offense, those two guys being on the field for a majority of the snaps together this year in a way they weren't last year, they couldn't use McMillan the way they wanted to last season because Coker wasn't on the field for the first half of the year. They need Coker to be there for them to move McMillan into the slot and do all the things that they're talking about because Leggett, while he's big, he can only do so much. You can't line him up at X because he is not a credible threat on the line of scrimmage in those situations.

34:02He's a vertical player, but he's a vertical player that you have to create separation for. Coker is the guy that in theory can unlock McMillan in the ways that they want to. And so a full season of those two guys, that's what I want to watch. There's, well, I'll get to my Tedaroa McThing later on in the segment, but. Tedaroa McThing, I really like. Did I say Tedaroa McThing? Tedaroa McThing. I'll get to my Tedaroa McThing. is something we're going to keep going with the entire year. We're on preview number four, but I can't wait to watch those two guys for sure. For me, we talked about it earlier in the summer.

34:34It's a defense that I think has the pieces to be surprisingly good. I think when you talk about overspending in free agency, we talked about it with the commanders the other day. You spend a shitload of money in free agency. It's usually because you have irreparable holes on your roster and the price exceeds the production. I don't really think that's the case with the Panthers this year, which is which is unusual. Like Jalen Phillips cost a shitload of money. It's injury that scares you with Jalen Phillips. The production is there like the production that suggests he's worth that kind of money is there.

35:08In my opinion, they did this for a very specific reason. You look at what they had, what happened in free agency for them over the last couple of years. They've been trying to shop at the top of the market because I do think in the last couple of free agent classes, there have been three to five players that are really needle moving pieces they didn't go there for milton williams they decided to shop in the discount did they not did they not go there or did the patriots say bigger stacks either one they did not get milton williams they pursued milton williams because they saw him as that tier of player they did not get him i think and the panthers are a perfect example of this we said this in the moment during free agency i think the biggest mistake you can make in free agency is paying a prices for b players yeah if you're paying a plus prices for a minus players i actually think that is acceptable and i think that's exactly what the panthers tried to do this year and i think theoretically they did it i mean jalen phillips is a top 10 player in pressures and pressure rate and that was despite changing defenses in the middle of last year incredibly impressive devon lloyd we've talked about how we think he stack stacks up at the end of the day the price just isn't that scary like three years $42 million just doesn't bother me that much for Devin Lloyd.

36:19So you have two really, really good players. Maybe you would quibble if I say blue chip, but like right there between Derek Brown and Jalen Phillips. Quality of player that you do not typically find in free agency. I think I'm comfortable saying that about both of those guys. There have been a lot of linebackers. Even Derek, I know, has some more reservations about Devin Lloyd as a player than maybe you and I do. But if you're looking at the linebackers that have hit free agency, that is a position where there are always guys available. The example for me is the year where it was Jamie and Sherwood and Nick Bolton and all those guys that ended up going back to their teams, but they were about to hit the market.

36:54For the most part, even this year, Quay Walker and N 'Kobe Dean, the linebackers hit free agency. But I think that the heights we saw from Devin Lloyd last year, I still think that is a slightly different type of player, if he can repeat that, than the linebackers that you can normally find on the market for between$10 and$15 million. dollars and to today's point I do think part of my reservations with Lloyd still are probably too anchored to what I thought he was going to get paid not what he actually got paid like what he actually got paid today's point is not that crazy especially this is a situation where they're not going from like average linebacker playing or maybe playing a premium to get above that this was the worst linebacker group in the league it was like Christian Rosen, Kevin Wallace, Claude and chairless, like it just wasn't good enough.

37:39Devin Lloyd doesn't have to be second team all pro again for it to be a massive upgrade over what the Panthers had. And hearing about his influence on the defense so far from a communication and kind of structure perspective was really interesting. I was talking to somebody on the defensive staff when I was there. It's been a month since I went there, which is really funny. It's the first stop that I had. It was July 24th. And so it's been a long time. But even at that part of the off season, And they compared it to when you have a quarterback who's a really good, like creative partner and how you create things where there's a dialogue of the one of the examples they use.

38:14And I won't give away the exact situation, but they were talking about a specific formational adjustment where they were trying to not have the coverage undressed. And it put them in a call that they felt they weren't really comfortable with, but it was the only answer they had based on what that formation looked like. And Devin Lloyd was kind of, why are we doing it this way? And I think the thought was, well, we just kind of do it this way. So why do we do it this way? Like, why wouldn't you try to do it with a little bit of like a tweak on it? And so I feel like he's kind of come from the outside and he's the green dot player.

38:44He's like the main communicator for the defense already. And but I think he's done the pairing of him and the defensive staff. They've kind of troubleshot some of the things that they were doing before that maybe didn't make the most sense. And he's been one that's been driving some of that stuff, which is a year one player in the defense, I think is cool. And beyond the more intangible impact of having a guy like that, the length that he gives you, and the other part of this is, what I'm watching the first month is the defense, so I had a lot of thoughts about this. I think this team needs to be a blitzing team to have it all work this year.

39:20I feel like they need to be more aggressive, even with Jalen Phillips in the fold, than they were even last year. and Devin Lloyd is a blitzer to me is the thing that maybe makes the contract worth it and gives you even another gear that feels different about this group compared to what you had last year. I think if he doesn't make an impact as a pass rusher on top of everything else, then you're not getting the bang for the buck you need to from him. And I don't think you're getting the best version of this defense. If anything, that's the one thing I'm confident he is going to bring is the pass rush stuff.

39:53Like every time he gets sent to a running back, he just completely blows them up. And so I do think him him being such a big part of their communication to me is like that to me was going to kind of be like how swings how good this defense is or not, because he was not necessarily the green dot player in Jacksonville. You could see like when you're watching film, he's communicating well with like Foyer and stuff like that, but he was not necessarily calling it. And so the fact that he is now a little bit more influential in that way in Carolina, I think this comes back to like, I think sometimes when these linebackers leave a spot where they are not the main linebacker in the room, it's kind of like you can go one of two ways.

40:30I think you can end up a little bit like how Patrick Queen has been with the Steelers, where it's a little bit more up and down. It never really feels like he's quite settled. Or I think you can end up in a spot where like when Aziz Al-Shair left the San Francisco 49ers, when he was technically the third guy on there, he goes to Tennessee for a year and it's like, okay, can you do it? Can you be the guy for this defense? And he immediately was. And then the Texans were like, that's who we want to be in the middle of our defense and being our dot player. And so I just think if he ends up closer to that, Aziz Alshair can really be the commander in the middle of it.

41:00That makes me feel a lot better that this defense can't actually be an above average unit, which it feels, it's above average, doesn't feel like crazy praise. But again, when they were the worst defense, one of the worst defenses I'd ever seen two years ago, that's unbelievable. I had one more note I wanted to make and that's that's part of my point Derek they were 32 two years ago they jumped up I think they finished 24th in defensive DVOA last year if Phillips and Lloyd are good another decent jump feels entirely possible and one thing we haven't said it I just want to we're doing a preview I think it's worth highlighting JC Horn and Mike Jackson are a terribly underrated duo of cornerbacks absolutely the Panthers had uh they finished 30th in sacks, 31st in pressures, and 31st in pressure rate last year.

41:46They were 10 spots better than that across the board in pass coverage metrics. Like, they have a really good duo of corners. And so if you incorporate better pass rush into what's there, yeah, top half of the league feels likely as a stretch, but it feels doable to me. Like, I don't think that's crazy. It feels doable. I think my question is going to be about the ceiling. And if you look at it, we've taken this in chunks. Two years ago, the most embarrassing thing about this team was the run defense. The run defense was historically bad. They allowed a 50 % rushing success rate per next gen. That's awful.

42:19It's like every team you play against is the Rams from last year. That's what the Panthers running run defense was in 2024. Last year, they were seventh in run defense success rate. And that comes with the second highest block box rate in the league after the Eagles. So they're playing with fewer defenders in the box than blockers at the second highest rate in the league and they finish seventh and run defense accessory. That's really, really good. They have those body types. That's where you feel Derek Brown. My question, and the thing that I, this isn't keeping me up at my, but it is the thing that I'm watching.

42:51Is Jalen Phillips enough to take that pass rush from a team that finished 32nd when rushing four to a unit that feels dangerous? Because that's about more than individual talent. And he really is the only guy you're adding back into that. Turk Wharton is still hurt. You lose Nick Squirtin before the season. And so even watching them last year, and I'm curious what you think about this, Derek. There are some teams that even if they don't have the horses pass rush wise, the plan feels dynamic. It feels like you can pick on people, either with pressures, with stunts, with simulators, whatever. This was a team that the pass rush plan, independent of the talent, to me never felt like they were really able to give teams an edginess with how they attacked them.

43:34I think I need to see more of that in addition to the Jalen Phillips thing for me to feel like this can be better than like the 17th best defense in the league. Yeah, I just felt like they were spending a lot of their resources to make sure that they could defend the run, which based on how bad the year before was and some of the players he brought in, I think that that makes a lot of sense. But I do think that the plan has to be more dynamic. Like Jalen Phillips is a guy that you can kind of use as a spinner a little bit. You can spike him into guards and do stuff like that with him. And then like you mentioned, Devin Lloyd, I think some of their backers, they would send them every now and then last year, But I don't really think of any of them as like truly dynamic blitz pieces, whereas Devin Lloyd is one of the best blitzing linebackers in the NFL.

44:14And he can play on the edge a little bit if they want to do any of that stuff. So they just have more pop and flexibility in their front than they really did at any point last year. If this is a team that is actually set up to do some of the Vikings hot coverage stuff, where they were their man answers on late downs, the cover zero is technically a man coverage, but it's really not. right? It's actually kind of more of a zone coverage. And so them running a little bit more cover zero stuff and allowing the corners to play with some vision. Is that a good answer on third down and defined past situations for a team that might struggle to create pressure elsewhere?

44:52Like, I just wonder what the plan looks like and what type of stuff they lean into more in order to give them that sort of dynamic in those situations, because they have not had it. I mean, I kind of think with Merrick, yeah, like I think as a safety, he's actually pretty good at a lot of that stuff like when even when he was coming out of college he was playing in one of those like quarters based like a downhill sort of systems and that's kind of what this hot coverage quarters stuff kind of or cover zero stuff turns into so and like you mentioned they have the corners to do it lloyd you probably want to bring blitzing so that's interesting because that feels like it would be such a departure from what they have been but i do think that if you're a team that is looking for some sort of new edge or advantage that probably is something that you should be looking at and studying maybe it's too far maybe maybe that's something that's off the table just because it is a very far removed but I just I wonder if there's something that they need to pull out of their back pocket to give them some more edge in those situations and because the other last thing I would say it does feel like the teams that do that like they kind of major in it you know what I mean like the the spags teams at certain points Flores what I'll say is the Chargers are a team last year that was a zone heavy team that really did have a deeper bag in some of those cover zero looks when we got to third down like are there some of those ideas that you can try to pluck from that actually does feel like it fits into what you want your overall identity beyond that side of the ball because they do not want to play man man man coverage but is like a certain amount of cover zero in those situations actually does it actually make sense in conjunction with all the other stuff that you want to do that that's the one thing that i would think about get wild with it because as we're going to get to i think defensive improvement, like significant defensive improvement is the most realistic path forward to the Panthers having a higher ceiling.

46:35So what do you watch in the first month of the season? Having said that, the thing I want to watch is just what exactly, what did I call it? My Tedaroa McThing? Yeah, Tedaroa McThing. What exactly is Tedaroa McMillan doing in the slot? What's his snap share? Because the word coming out of camp is that he's going to play more in the slot. He did in the preseason. I know. There's nowhere for them to hide anymore. That could mean, it could mean anything though. when you played 85 % of your snaps outside as a rookie? Like, what is the split exactly? It's 60-40 outside inside for the preseason. That's 22 snaps.

47:07That's a pretty small sample size. But he's in the slot plenty in those two games. A lot of deep digs, some deep crossers in there. Like, it looks very fun, but what is their vision exactly for what they want to do with him? I just want to see. We talked about the T-Max slot stuff. The other thing we did not mention with the defense is, it sounds like we're going to see JC Horn in there significantly more than we ever have before. And I think part of the reason for that is if you're a zone heavy team, it's almost that it's the same thought process of putting your best receiver in the slot, where if you put them in the slot, it's harder for the defense to take him away.

47:43And I feel like that's the thought process about why they want Horn in there more often, because if you're going to be zone heavy, teams can just ignore him. If he's on one side of the field, if you're putting him in the slot on third and seven, he is just more capable of making an impact on the game and so i think we're going to see that and that's partially because of how much they've liked what they've seen from will lee interesting that's what i was going to ask like who is the other guy will lee he's the guy who would be out there fun player i remember in that first the first preseason game he like he had a great play on like a slant and then like on a couple plays later the next drive he just bites on a double move and gets burned down the field and it's like there's going to be a little bit of that with him he's got some of that like i'm gonna be aggressive and put some hands on you sort of player but that's really encouraging to hear that that he they already feel like they can put him on the field in service of getting their best player where they want him that was early in camp but i do feel like that is still the vision i think we will see horn in the slot more often than we ever have before that's extremely fun as the draft guy like i don't i don't want to be on here hyping up fourth round picks and expecting big things from them.

48:51But if you can get something out of him in that A &M team was so loaded with draft picks, he's I don't I don't doubt that he can play a role early. All right, let's get to it. Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Carolina Panthers? I just worry that because of the current quarterback play, you're going to waste a year of an expensive roster with no avenue towards whoever the next quarterback is going to be and they have some ways that they can get out of this expensive roster like you can get out of the Wharton contract next year same thing with Robert Hunt that'll clear up like somewhere around 30 million dollars but in the world where they need to and they drafted I think they drafted Lee Hunter in part so they would have like a cheap off-ramp if they needed to move on from the expensive interior pieces right even in that world like some of that money half of that money at least is probably going to have to be towards whatever new quarterback you're about to give some money to unless they can find some way to maneuver in the draft and go get a guy.

49:47And so it just feels like they've built up this very expensive roster to be like a nine win division winner of the NFC South. And if they can't even accomplish that, you start to like spiral about what this team building has really started to look like. So he's already shut the door on Bryce Young. Is your door shut on Bryce Young? My door is not shut, but I'm starting to feel like Tom Hanks at the end of Saving Private Ryan, where he's just shooting his pistol at the Tiger tank coming across the bridge. But who's my, who's my air cav in this analogy? Like who's going to show up and bomb the tank for me.

50:20I'm, I'm not optimistic. I'm not closing the door, but here's the thing. I want to be excited about Bryce young. I want to believe in a good version of the Panthers because it's more interesting, but what I don't want to do and actually incredible. I forgot. They, they play the bears to open the season, which no offense. That's, That's not the most terrifying defense in the NFL to start. Yeah, you can say that. I don't want to be in here at midnight on Sunday of week one or week three because they play the Browns week three. I don't want to be in here at midnight talking about Bryce Young like a lost dog.

50:59Just like, ah, I don't know. I don't know what happened. Again, PCA ad with the. Yeah, yeah. Sarah Blackwell's playing while we're trying to have a conversation about Bryce Young for the 12th time. I don't want to do it anymore. And if I'm being honest, that's kind of what I expect to happen. I'm holding out hope that that's not true, but the numbers are what they are. And, I mean, like, at no point in his career so far has Bryce Young been better than, like, the 25th best quarterback in the NFL. the Browns or excuse me the Panthers tied the Browns for 28th with with 63 explosive pass plays last year over the course of Bryce's career only the Jets have fewer explosive pass plays than the Carolina Panthers you can you can dig into the websites and find a damning stat for any category you want to go into maybe this is the year Bryce puts it all together.

51:55The talent you hope is upgraded and maybe the defense can help you out. But I just have this sneaking suspicion that I'm going to be sitting at this desk at a loss for words multiple times over the course of the season. My hope is also dwindling. Like it's hard for it not to be after last year. It was fun to kind of attach yourself to the second half of that 24th season and think maybe, maybe there is a path forward here. I really enjoyed watching him play during that stretch. I was very impressed with his ability to come back from what the last season and a half had looked like. But then you watched it last year, and I think it's harder to hold on to that.

52:34Last season, per NextGen, the quarterbacks were the worst success rate than Bryce Young. Geno Smith, JJ McCarthy, Jackson Dart, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Cam Ward, Shadour Sanders. It's the only ones. As a team, even with Coker and T-Mac on the field together, the Panthers finished 28th in passing success rate. The numbers are tough. And if you're trying to build a case, I will do this. If you get Coker and T-Mac together the entire season, that's a starting point to this. Losing Brazel sucks because I do think, like we were talking about with Leggett, where Leggett can give you some verticality.

53:10Brazel, they felt, was a guy that they could stick on the line of scrimmage and give you that verticality to the offense. That's just not something they feel like they can get with Leggett. So you're already kind of removing one of the things that they thought could make the offense feel a little bit different. but let's just play out the world where the receivers are significantly better because you get Coker and T-Mac the entire season. The offensive line is not as good as you want it to be coming into the year, right? The fact that Moten is going to miss an indeterminate amount of time. Rasheed Walker, we thought he'd get paid more than$4 million in free agency.

53:41He didn't. We should probably take that as a little bit of a signal. And he did not look great in the preseason in like this short little glimpse that we saw from him. And so I'm kind of hoping we get Moten back sooner rather than later, and then you get to a place where you can move Monroe Freeling over to left tackle if you feel a little bit uneasy about what Walker's going to give you. If that's the case and the guards are healthy, I do think the offensive line can be a good group. Not great, but a good group. So the personnel has a chance to be, mentioning Jonathan Brooks too, this is a team that had no yak players whatsoever last year.

54:14Like having somebody you can just spit the ball out to, there is a chance that the personnel is better than it's ever been since Bryce Young got here. And I do think there's some schematic things where if I'm trying to really hold on to something, there are elements that looked good last year where it's like, okay, if you leaned a little bit more into this, what could you be as an offense? They have not been explosive because they haven't pushed the ball downfield. And I do think they, I think Bryce Young wants to push the ball downfield a little bit more. And I feel like Idzik coming in, is that something where do they take the limiter off of what they're asking of Bryce Young a little bit more than they did under Canals?

54:48That's one pillar of this. And the other part is, I do think that there are elements of what they do when Bryce is in there that actually look pretty good. This team was seventh in success rate off play action last year. And the stat that really jumped out to me that absolutely matches the eye test, last season per NextGen, the Panthers had the highest success rate on dropbacks in the league on plays where they used motion at the snap. It was 56 % of plays. And you do feel that. Like when they're using Jimmy Horn as kind of a move piece, and like Derek was saying about the Falcons, when Horn's on some of those jets and that puts McMillan at the number two before the snap, and you can use him on some of those intermediate routes, and that gives you a chance to attack the 10 to 15 yard area quickly, I do think Bryce Young is good at some of that stuff.

55:35And so if there's a little bit more play action, if there's a little bit more motion, if you're leaning into those sorts of things, that's a version of the offense that I think can get you to more explosives than you've enjoyed before. this is a very very very thin path and you're stacking up a lot of contingencies but i do think that is the argument you would make if you were a panthers fan about why this could potentially look better than it ever has with bryce if i'm better can you be the 18th best team in the league and can you be like 16th can you be average i think that's better average is what i'm gunning for like if i'm looking for optimism i think that is a realistic possibility and I think that what you just laid out is actually why I can see the passing offense being better and me not necessarily feeling any better about Bryce Young being the quarterback moving forward because the two things that you just mentioned play action I think in the world we live in where teams are doing so much changing their coverage if you're just like play action turning your back there's a little bit of like you're not really having to look and see as much you're kind of just going to throw that deep over out or you're going to throw the glance out whatever it's going to be and I think some of the motion stuff helps clear up what the the mental picture it's supposed to look like for the quarterback.

56:43So it's stuff that obviously every offense needs a little bit of that. You want your quarterback to take some plays off. But if those are two things where it's taking the burden purely off of the quarterback and you're kind of just throwing these balls to these skyscrapers, unless it looks like a top 10 offense, I don't know if that's really going to move the needle for me that much on whether or not Bryce is going to be the long term starter or not. I think that's fair. The fact that we have to be pulling all these levers to get you to a place where you can have an above average passing offense, I think speaks to some of the concerns about the quarterback specifically.

57:12All right, Dave. What does success look like for the 2026 Carolina Panthers? Like I said, for all four teams, win the division. It's there for you. It is realistic to think you can repeat as division champions. Even the Falcons, you're putting that on them, huh? There's a world where that's possible. Absolutely. We'll get there. All right. But I will say, I don't think you can consider this a successful season in Carolina unless Bryce shows a redeeming amount of progress. I said QB 16. So we're aligned like 16, 18 would probably be fine after the three years we've had. Although I don't know if that is fine when you're talking about the big picture where you have to decide if he's worth extending and what that price looks like.

57:52But it's almost worse if he's quarterback 18 and you find yourself hemming and hawing anywhere about what you want to do. Because like if we let's just say we live out the same thing and maybe the Panthers win the division at nine and eight or ten and seven this year. But it's basically the same thing. and Bryce is like worse than 20, and they get bounced in the wildcard round. What are we doing? Like, are we trying to patch things up with Baker Mayfield? Are you going after Mac Young? Mac Jones. Mac Jones? I'm all over the place. It's been a busy week. It has been. It's been a long week. Are we doing a reclamation project in Carolina?

58:32Like, what does it be really funny if they went after Anthony Richardson and just got the exact opposite of Bryce Young. The other guy in that song over there. But, like, you're in that world if Bryce doesn't substantially improve this year. No matter where they go, if Bryce improving is not part of it, then I don't think you'll feel good about this season. This wasn't my original answer, but based on what you just said, I think this is where I'm going to land. are you a quarterback reclamation project away from being a serious team next year including Bryce Young as one of those reclamation projects right where it's like are we are we the guy that was once seemed like there's no way he could be the answer for a championship caliber team but now is away from being really competitive in the NFC next year and that could include Bryce Young where this year he's like the 18th best quarterback we think a year from now he can be a Sam Darnold level player that gets us to a place where with the offense and defense around him are good enough we can be competitive that to me is the best case scenario that that is success that feels remote but if you don't land in that but even it doesn't have to be Bryce Young it can be like whoever that next guy happens to be and so for Bryce I think it's a remote chance for everything else I think it's within the realm of possibility and I think that is what I would deem success for the Panthers this year that's probably where I would land too like even if the record is the same even if they're an eight and nine team again but like because it honestly even them i don't know if we've really brought this up them even getting to eight and nine last year was a little bit of luck like they were it was a lot of close games that they were kind of able to squeak out they were really not that good the most inconsistent team i've ever watched they literally it was like i don't remember if it actually finished the season this way but i think they were literally like lose win lose win lose win for like the entire season and then like losing like losing to some horrible teams giving the rams their like the game that they gave them like they were just all over the board and so they beat the rams yes they beat and then almost did it again in the playoffs like it the fact that they had those highs exactly the fact that they had those highs and then like i think they got swept by the saints which just like i just don't know where you really like they were the true they were truly the most like any given sunday team so i think they still have a long way to go to actually be a team that you really do feel good about being if we just get a reclamation quarterback in here.

1:00:55But I do think it's feasible. And whether it's Bryce Young, whether it's any of the guys that we mentioned, I do think that that's on the table. And to me, it really doesn't matter what the end result is about winning the division or winning the playoff game. You just you should feel like 2027 is really going to matter if they can fix one thing. All right. Before we get to our Saints preview. Let's take our second quick break.

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1:03:56Let's get to the New Orleans Saints. to the 2026 New Orleans Saints. My enthusiasm is slightly dampened by the Jordan Tyson situation, but... Hard not to have it really bring you down. But even still, it's year two of Tyler Shuck, and the Saints have done a remarkable job of improving the supporting cast around him, getting A-chan in there at the price that they did, again, for spending in free agency, $48 million over four years is just not a crazy price to pay for a good running back. I don't know if it's I don't know if Travis Achan is going to like change the game for the New Orleans Saints, but it's better.

1:04:31It is much better than what they've had. I see that look on your face. You look at some of the numbers from last year. Per NextGen, Camaro was the only running back in the league with 100 plus carries to finish below 30 percent of his runs over expectation. It was bad. This was a really, really bad running team last year. His numbers were bad. And then any time any of the backups came in, like Devin Neal comes off the bench and he's not even like that great of a player. He's kind of just a grinder and he's clearly outperforming him, I thought. And so the fact that they bring in somebody who's got a little bit more pop with an offensive line that like, I mean, that's kind of what I'm excited about.

1:05:04There's a chance that this offensive line is just like really, really good. Like Fuwaga, I think, could take another step. You bring in David Edwards, who is a really, really good guard. Eric McCoy, when he's healthy, is one of the best at his position in the league. And Kelvin Banks, like, I know I came into the league really hot on him, but he had a phenomenal rookie season. And I think that there's a chance that maybe not this year, but two or three years down the line, he's like a top seven left tackle in the NFL. Like, I truly think he's got that in him. And so if they've got this unit and a lot of they can stay healthy and shock takes a step and eight, a chance is really good.

1:05:35It's like, OK, man, you could really get excited about like this is the unit that can actually get you to winning the division. I'll shout out our friend Brandon Thorne one more time because he did such a good job with these offensive line ranks. I mean, the guy, the man is an absolute sicko. I love him to death. But Talia Sufuaga, Brandon has him ranked 20th among 32 right tackles heading into year three. Kelvin Banks comes in at 18th out of 40 left tackles after one season. Similar to what we said about Jalen Phillips, you paid a premium for David Edwards. But if he is a top 10 guard, according to people who know their shit and was such a big piece of the Bills offensive line, McCoy, top five center when healthy, which please God.

1:06:17That's a conversation we'll have. It's been a tough couple of years. and even Cesar Ruiz, who probably gets the least amount of pub among this offensive line, ninth best right guard among 34 ranked. Like the potential is here for this to be a kick-ass unit. And to that point, Travis HN doesn't have to be the best back in the NFL if the offensive line hits the way you want it to. I did. I had one more thing I just thought was really fun because I like I don't think about you. You watch Tyler Shuck and in the context of nine games over the second half of his rookie season and what did it really look like?

1:06:50And the numbers are fine, but not jaw-dropping. Among the nine, I went back and looked at nine quarterbacks drafted since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, like Caleb and Jaden and Drake and Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. Tyler Shuck had a worse running game than all of those guys as a rookie, except for Drake May in 24 and Bryce Young in 23, in terms of like EPA per play and success rate. for him to play middle of the pack over nine weeks with nothing happening in the running game it i know people are excited about shuck but like i feel like that goes underrated that he had to do a lot of that without a lot of help they were 14th in epa per drop back in the back half of the season with no running game whatsoever and chris alave played phenomenal in the back half of last year who are the other receiving options for the saints during that time it's devon vele mason tipton it's so funny that they did the devon veille trade in august and we made fun of them for it and then they forgot about him until him and tyler shuck were just making beautiful music for they needed it they traded rashid shaheed it's like who else is going to catch passes on this team they needed it and like tyler shuck will throw over the middle of the field and make those throws which is like that's what you want to devon veille doing he's like a big slot type receiver and i also think like honestly most boring player who i i think is actually like can be pretty productive and pretty good.

1:08:11And the fact that he might be the fourth best pass catcher on this team is nice. Juwan Johnson is a totally nice tight end to have. Like, he's totally solid. And they really do kind of use him as like a vertical piece. And so you can start to, like, I do think that that's the thing. And maybe this is stepping on the next segment. If they can be a little bit more vertical and start to hit on some of those routes, it's like, okay, this offense is kind of starting to unlock all the things that you want. I am bummed out about the Tyson thing because I think where I sit with Tyler Shuck is, I think this is not even an insulting place to land.

1:08:42I don't know what the ceiling for Tyler Shuck is. He's able to make plays with his legs, but just, we talked about this in the second year quarterback show, Derek, when he gets sped up and he's got to make off platform sorts of throws, like little tiny movements in the pocket, that's where the inaccuracy really creeps in. And so I wonder what sort of pocket playmaking quarterback he's ever going to be. When he has to run, he has that sort of like straight line speed and explosiveness. but he's not exactly a twitchy player in the pocket. And so I wonder what the ceiling for him is as a player. But I think what he showed floor-wise already is really encouraging.

1:09:18I feel like, and I think this is how some people view him in that building as well. He's a winning quarterback. If we put the right stuff around him, this can be a winning quarterback. And I think you can start to build a case for how this off season, if the running game is gonna get better and we get Tyson back at some point, we've put the right things around him. If this running game can go from bottom three to middle of the pack, if you can get Jordan Tyson in there midway through the season to pair with Chris Olave, the offensive line is already good. And the other part of this that I think when you think about the supporting cast overall, I really liked what Kellen Moore did last year.

1:09:52I really liked watching this offense. I think they did a lot of really good stuff. And so if we get to a place where so many of those, the prongs of that plan feel like they're in place around a quarterback that I think absolutely clears the bar. What can this thing look like in year two? That's what I'm excited to see. There's so much reason for optimism. I wish Tyson was available. I'd be talking really recklessly if Gordon Tyson was healthy right now. Derek what are you watching the first month of the season with the New Orleans Saints I'm watching the defense you know the we've mentioned it a number of times this offseason towards the back half of the year the Saints defense was really good they were like third in EPA for play yes back half of the season they were third and like it's crazy and same in success rate like they were a really really good defense down the stretch and uh you know I think sometimes that can be the case right when you get a you bring in a new play caller and it takes them, you know, half the year to really get going.

1:10:52And I think that you really saw Brandon Staley's defense start to come into its own. At the same time, I think that this is often a style of defense that is really dependent on what the spine of the defense looks like. You now lose to Mario Davis, who is like really the heart and soul of this defense through multiple iterations, whether it was with Staley or beforehand with Dennis Allen. And you lose Alante Taylor, who I think was a pretty good nickel player for them. So these players that were really in the middle of your defense and allowing you to do certain things they're just going to get different bodies there and that's where I think it it's hard to pace on what they did last year to what it might be because now you have Jonas Sanker potentially playing the nickel it sounds like he's going to be the nickel for them I think just a different player I think yeah and he's just a different player to me from Elante Taylor and so I wonder how that's going to look because when I watched him last year like what he did as like a center fielder sometimes I thought was really impressive so him now being nickel I'm like okay what's that going to look like and he hasn't really played in like they haven't really played any of their starters in the preseason so we haven't really gotten to look at what that even looks like and then demario davis they swap him out for kate nellis and kate nellis is a lot more of like a he's blitzing he's really bringing the heat you can put him on the edge you can do all this funky stuff with him whereas demario davis was really more of like kind of the the heart of your coverage unit and so do they do more blitzing because that's just what he's going to be better at and so i just wonder what the construction of the like is it going to change or are they going to try to do some of the same stuff?

1:12:16We'll see them bring more pressure in part because I think they're good at it. They were a really good pressure team last year when they decided to do that. And when you look at this group overall, if you're trying to figure out, I'll actually regret not doing this as one of the lingering questions. Like how did the Saints defense finish third in EPA replay in the back half of the year? And so let's go through a mini lingering questions about how the Saints did this last year. It starts with the run defense first and foremost. That is the starting point for how you get to be a shockingly good defense considering your personnel.

1:12:46Last year, second in the NFL over the second half of the season in light box rate, they were sixth in blocked box rate. So again, the number of blockers compared to the number of defenders that you have makes total sense, right? I mean, this is Brandon Staley, Fangio, that's how they want to play. they were top three in both EPA per rush and success rate during that during the back half of the year while playing in those boxes they were the only team in the NFL that was top three in EPA per carry and success rate period let alone considering how they want to play and this does actually make sense when you look at the way that their front is built there aren't a lot of race cars there are a lot of big ass dudes they love drafting big ass football they have big men in that group even chase young was 265 so that's that front is built for them to hold up against the run which i actually whether they stumbled into this or he stumbled into this because it's guys they already had i think brandon staley has learned his lesson right well they drafted another one this year they having kristen miller come in i love kristen miller in the draft he's exactly the type of player that this team wants and so if we're going to be in we're going to force teams to be in.

1:14:01During that stretch, they allowed 4.4 yards per play on first down. The only teams in the league that were better were the Texans and the Broncos. So if we're going to be in a lot of these second and sevens and second and eights, and we can be a team that really does have a cool pressure plan, that's how you build this sort of team. And I think that's what they've done. And so I do think that there is a chance that they can be that sort of run defense again. You have a guy like Caden Ellis. Can you be this team on third and eight where we really like what we can unleash against you? and I think the other part of this and the thing that I'm really curious about watching Chase Young was phenomenal Chase Young was incredible in the second half of the season he is quietly so damn good he was fifth in pressure rate in the second half of last year per next gen he had seven sacks from week 10 and on he was hurt for a good chunk of the first half of the season and talking to people there I do think they see like another gear for him where we get a season from Chase Young if he's healthy throughout this whole year, where it makes us talk differently about Chase Young.

1:15:04Like a narrative-changing season for Chase Young, who is 27 years old. I mean, we... 27 still. I'm glad we're doing this, because we should be talking more about Chase Young as a football community anyway. I think it's just easy, and for that matter, this is how I feel. I just, I don't care that much about the Saints defense, because the questions on offense are so important. and they're exciting and they're exciting but the players aren't exciting like the idea of we have capable corners and kuhlick mckinstry and quince quincey riley is not an exciting conversation the way that jordan tyson chase young is exciting agreed okay having said that this is my favorite thing to say to my wife can i be mean can i be can i be mean for like 10 seconds i hate to be this guy the saints schedule post playing the rams i had the quarterbacks I was I was ready for this discussion.

1:15:59It's not good. And I just it's not to discount everything they did. But I think that is a very useful piece of it's important context. Falcons twice, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, Panthers over this stretch that we're talking about. It's you have to mention it. And whether they're as good as the numbers indicate, I think that's up for discussion. They're probably not. But at least if you're going to have that stretch, you want to look dominant. It's almost like what we're kind of saying about the Patriots overall last year. it's like if you're going to have this schedule you should at least be beating the shit out of most of the people you're playing and at least they were for the most part doing that defensively um before we move on i just wanted to put one like final note on the pass rush thing with caden ellis caden ellis rushed the passer 170 times last year and if you look at like nfl pro you can actually kind of do it by alignment like by edge by off ball linebacker by quote defensive tackle which basically for a linebacker just means he's mugged up it's a pretty even split across the board for ellis like he really can do everything for them Demario Davis only had 70 pass rush snaps and like 50 of them were him just mugged up.

1:17:00So it was just like a very, it was a very specific way that they were using him. Whereas Ellis really is kind of this unicorn. So hopefully that does unlock something a little bit for this defense. Because I do think even if you think Chase Young can be the centerpiece of your pass rush, there aren't a lot of other guys on this defensive line that have a lot of oomph to them. There just aren't. And so if you want to use Caden Ellis as a blitzer to kind of account for some of that, I actually do think that's it. It's a fun little. What do we need to do next edition? Because it doesn't necessarily completely align with what their identity was last year.

1:17:33But I do think it's a path to a different gear and a different approach the year after. And I like that. I like when teams do that, where it's we're making an addition that speaks to evolution. And I think that's what the Caden Ellis addition does for this team. What are you watching the first month of the season of Derek and I are fixated on the defense? I'll just be a meme of myself. but it's a big deal quietly because Jordan Tyson minimum, we're thinking week six, probably. Yeah. Minimum. And all of a sudden who, who is benefiting from that absence in the roster? A lot of a, obviously thank God they did trade for Devon Vela, but this team ran 11 personnel, 67 % of the time last year.

1:18:14And there's no clear cut option on the roster right now. Maybe I should probably take that as a cue that they might do something, which they had Chase Claypool in for a workout. They had Josh Reynolds in for a workout, but there's not a definite option to do that. You don't believe in Bryce Lance? If I'm going to believe in anybody, it's going to be my guy, Barry and Brown, who had some splash moments in camp from what I've seen. But yeah, I mean, Bryce Lance, fourth round pick, six, three runs of a four, three. That's very intriguing. But the word on him coming out of college is he's just raw, like running straight, very fast is basically what you're drafting him for at this point.

1:18:54Lots of common theme with the North Dakota state guys that have come into the NFL. Barry and Brown is also a speed guy. He's a return guy at LSU. Like, I don't know how realistic it is to think he's going to step in and be a guy from day one. Jalen Polk retired. I know, like, I don't know what your expectations were for Jalen Polk. It has not, it did not go his way. He retired, but I'm sure that was a blow for the saints considering that you had to be worried about Jordan Tyson's durability. anyway so like i said yeah i'll say it again there is not a clear-cut option to be the third receiver on the field for this team right now my thought would be and i don't know enough about this i probably should know more about it if lance can is that third guy ends up becoming that third guy and hit what you're asking of him is very streamlined and he's just a vertical piece for you olave can do everything else yeah right i think it just reframes the olave role and then obviously Devon Bailey as a big slot middle of the field optionally that that trio like stylistically if Lance is viable early I do actually think makes sense together Lance and the cool thing like Lance and Barry and Brown both have very exciting skill sets means they are the exact type of players that stand out in training camp and you can go pull up clips of both of them doing cool shit at practice I don't know what that means when you actually get to the season and whether or not the saints do something here between now and week one is going to answer that question.

1:20:21Cause this seems like the type of situation where even if it's not one of the guys they worked out, if you just want to go find a guy off the street, or if, if you're scared enough that you do like a minor trade for it, I don't know. It's something to watch. I just hope we get Jordan Tyson back soon or Ivan later. You and me both. That's where I sit with it. Jordan Tyson is, we've talked about this a million times, but just worth putting a point on it. somebody that in the drafts, I had questions about even beyond the health stuff. I was like, what is he in the NFL? What is he if he's the best receiver on your team, if he's your number one receiver?

1:20:53Just because, again, it's like a vertical player just wasn't what he was bringing to the table for the most part at Arizona. The change of direction and like just slashing ability is unbelievable. Like the route running, you see it. You understand why he is so dangerous and why teams liked him so much but i felt like where he was going to land on the other receivers in the room were probably going to dictate how i felt about some of this and when the saints picked him it was immediately immediately i see the pairing of him and chris alave and i'm just like yep that's it like that that is the guy where with if you're going to pair him with like a truer number one receiver what sort of skill set do you want chris alave was exactly the answer and the fact that it's been taken away from me i'm having my kevin garnett why would you show it If I can't have it, that's how I feel right now about the Jordan Tyson, Chris Olave pairing.

1:21:43I'll just get this out of the way because we have other things we can talk about and what's keeping you awake. I'm not I'm not walking off the ledge right now. Like I'm I'm holding out. But I loved Jordan Tyson as a prospect. I thought he was the best receiver in this class. I it's it's so scary that not only is he hurt, but it's a hamstring. It's a soft tissue thing. It sounded like a fluke thing. Okay. It sounded like a fluke thing. What does that mean? I still get scared if you have a history, you know? I don't know. All I'm saying— They're talking themselves into the fact that it's a fluke thing.

1:22:18They have to. I mean, you don't have a choice. You draft this guy for years, and I get that. And plenty of guys— Odell Beckham had a hammy in his rookie training camp. Like, you can get past this stuff, but I'm going to be banging my head against the table through the first six weeks of the season if Reuben Bain or Caleb Downs or Casey Concepcion or Makai Lemon, like if these guys are popping and having fun and I'm Squidward watching SpongeBob. Oh, you can't do that way, though. This is a five-year choice. I know. You can't do that. I don't have a definitive opinion right now, but it just makes me nervous that we didn't even get a week into his career before it was cropped up.

1:22:59That part is worrying. When you consider his history and the fact that we're going to miss at least the first six games before we've even seen him for a single snap in the league. We're not absolutely concerned. We are not selling our stock. We are just wondering what the future holds. Well, what's keeping us up at night? I mean, this is part of it. Yeah, it is. This is a team where you're looking at the best case scenario, and it's so tempting to envision and talk about the best case scenario. We spent 10 minutes at the beginning discussing the improvements and the supporting cast and the infrastructure around Tyler Shuck.

1:23:30What if that just never happens? But what if we never get that version of the offense? No Tyson. Eric McCoy's played 14 games combined in the last two seasons. So the idea of, well, man, Eric McCoy, Eric McCoy is healthy. Well, he hasn't been healthy. I was excited about Eric McCoy coming back last year, and he played the same number of games. Seven. Seven games each of the last two years. And I don't want to face this reality because I loved watching him healthy last year. Chris Olave has not had a clean bill of health very often throughout his career. And so are we going to be at a place where we're looking at this offense in week 12 and there are four or five important pieces missing?

1:24:06You could play this game for every single team. The idea of injuries are keeping me up at night. I think it's a little bit more fitting to have that conversation about this team, considering the point they're starting from. The reality is that's just more real with some teams than not. And sometimes it doesn't matter. We did this with the Rams last year, and then they were one of the handful of teams that could have won the Super Bowl. And obviously the Saints ceiling isn't that high, but there's a chance maybe none of this goes well. But I'm in the same boat like Olave, you just don't know. Tyson, regardless of even when he comes back, what does he look like when he comes back?

1:24:39Like, does he even look like the first round player that you would have wanted? McCoy, again, we don't know, especially after multiple years. And then I think we forget, like, part of the reason I think Tyler Shuck probably fell and even was what he was as a draft prospect was he was never healthy in college outside of the last year that he played. And so there's a chance that he gets banged up again. And so you have this, what could be a really exciting offense, that it just feels a little bit like a house of cards, unfortunately. I don't want to be sitting here in November saying, ah, we just, have we even seen Shucks full capability?

1:25:12Because it just fell apart. Yeah. And I do think that the improvement in the run game is enough to make the overall offense feel considerably different than it was a year ago. even if you remove the Tyson part from this. I think the foundation of it is built on something that's sturdier than it was last season, but I still feel like what we spent all spring thinking about, all summer thinking about, with those two guys within the same offense, the fact that that starting point is that being removed, and we have some of the other players that have injury concerns, I think that's where your mind has to go.

1:25:45All right, what does success look like, Derek, for the 2026 New Orleans Saints? I mean, not to steal Dave's bit, but I think that you should probably feel like you can go win the division. And then I think for them, it would be more specific to like, you feel good about Tyler Shuck moving forward. Not like, you know, we'll play this out one more year, see if things really feel good. Like, no, you feel good that he is at minimum a top 20 quarterback and still has some potential to kind of rise even higher than that. So I think those to me, that's kind of like, that is success for the New Orleans Saints.

1:26:18Shuck looks like the real deal and you win the division. yeah i think that's probably enough i i think i land in a similar spot i'm not sure it has to be more than that and also my this was the team where there was nothing really keeping me up at night let's just say you're a little bit banged up offensively and you end up being like an eight and nine team i feel so good about so a lot of the things that have happened to this team in the last year to me it's more about the conversation we're having about the saints at this time last year versus the conversation we're having about the saints now there is nothing that could get me to a place where it's keeping me up at night.

1:26:51Well, last year, Dave was picking between them in the wins pool. Like when we were picking bad teams, he was like, do I pick the Browns or the Saints? And think about how definitely we're talking about those two teams right now. The Saints are the reason I didn't lose the wind pool, by the way, pulling their act together in December. I will. I'll push back on you a little bit, though, and just say. And this goes, this isn't Tyler Shuck specific. This is for a lot of teams that have a young quarterback. I just. I want to know something about him when the season's over. Like if they go eight and nine and he's whatever and you have 18 reasons why it didn't look better, like if people get hurt and all that shit.

1:27:29If we get to the end of the year and it's like, I don't know if he's the guy, but I don't know if that's his fault. I don't want to be there. I want to know. I want data. I think you want more clarity than that, but I think he showed enough of a floor where I'm just not really worried about that version of the conversation. I think it's going to be more about what is his ceiling. Like how far can he take us beyond what is put around him? I think overall, the idea that you can win with Tyler Shuck, I already feel pretty good about that if everything else is good enough. But the other part, the last thing that's probably worth mentioning, Tyler Shuck hasn't had a very spotless injury history either.

1:28:06I mean, he's somebody that was hurt all throughout college, and so there's just one more guy to throw out there. Not until his final college year. Let's get to the Atlanta Falcons. Our preview for the 2026 Atlanta Falcons. They're off season in 60 seconds. Hire Kevin Stefanski as the head coach. Kep Jeff Ulbrich as the defensive coordinator. Signed to a talking by Lowe, Jawan Taylor, Jahan Dotson, Olami Zikias in free agency. I think combined those players are making like less than$20 million. Lost. Caleb Nellis, David Onyemada, D Alford and Tyler Algier in free agency. No first round pick in the draft.

1:28:38Avian Terrell in the second round. Zachariah Branch in the third round. Derek, what are you most excited about? as it relates to the 2026 Atlanta Falcons. Their three-headed monster on offense is as good as anybody, as far as the skill players go. Drake London, B. John Robinson, Kyle Pitts. And like Kyle Pitts is, I think, a rung down from those guys. Obviously, I think B. John Robinson can make an argument. He's the best running back in the league. Drake London, I think you can make a case as like a top 10 wide receiver in the league. And Pitts is, I think, I do believe that some of the stuff that we saw from Kyle Pitts last year was pretty real.

1:29:12I still think he's going to be a little bit of like an up and down volatile player, just because some of the blocking stuff, how can you really use him? But I'm willing to buy that some of the weird stuff in the middle of his career, he just wasn't healthy. And I'm willing to believe that what we saw as a rookie and what we saw last year, yeah, man, he can really do that and have that level of giddy up. And so if you've got these three skill players that at any time can just give you a huge, huge play, I'm going to be tuning into that. Beyond the fact that they're good, what I'm most excited about is the idea that they're what they were supposed to be to a degree, right?

1:29:45Like Pitts has never been the supernova of a player we thought he might be when you take him in the top five. That just never transpired. Even as a rookie, he had a thousand yards, but I don't think he was ever the guy that we saw on that film in Florida in part because of the injuries. But the other two guys, like the idea that you took these three skilled position players in consecutive drafts three years in a row in the top 10, and two of them are worth paying the way that you did, and Kyle Pitts is somebody that was worth paying and we're excited about watching continue his career. This is about as good as you probably could have realistically hoped for when you did this in the draft over a three-year period.

1:30:22And if you're trying to build an exciting case for the Falcons, this is where it starts. Like these three guys, not just this year, these three guys for the next two to three years, if the Falcons are gonna be the team they want to be, it starts with these three players. And that's as good of a starting point as I think it probably could have been if you had told me you were going to draft three skill position players in three consecutive first rounds. I appreciate this perspective because it's easy to not feel excited about it because there's so much uncertainty at quarterback, but these guys are locked in for the foreseeable future.

1:30:53And so, and they're so good and they're, they're so good. And they're so spike. They're so unique. All like all three of them are just, they're, they're unlike other players in the league. Like even what Drake and Wendon is compared to the other best receivers in the league. Like I do think that they're exciting. The rest of the roster, we'll talk about it. But these three guys, I think, are a very exciting place to start. I actually took it in a hipster direction because I just, I loved watching the secondary last year. And the bulk of it is back. Yeah. Like, oh my gosh, I'm totally blanking on my guy who went to Buffalo.

1:31:27D 'Alford. D 'Alford, thank you. D 'Alford's gone, but Jesse Bates is back. Jesse Bates is on a four-year run of finishing with three-plus interceptions. him and Kirby Joseph are the only guys in the league doing that Jesse Bates is tied for the lead among all DBs for interceptions since 2020 13 since he got to Atlanta Xavier Watts five interceptions as a rookie incredibly fun I think Derek brought this up during the summer you would not guess that Billy Bowman only played six games if you didn't look at it like he was just so hyperactive he was such a spark plug player five pressures two sacks a pick 26 tackles in six games like that is a crazy impact for a fourth round rookie I hope he's back sooner rather later he's still he's working his way back I think week one is a kind of a remote possibility that's too strong I don't know if he's back in week one I think it'll be in the first couple weeks of the season based on how I understand it seems like there's optimism around it and then And I don't know if AJ Terrell's a top eight or 10 cornerback in the league right now, but like, he's still a good, good player.

1:32:31He's a good foundational piece of the secondary and his brother's there now. And if you didn't watch a lot of Avion Terrell, their second round pick who his little brother who also played at Clemson, he's a, and Dane said this, I'm not saying this. He is a honey badger player. Like he has a nose for the football. Jeff Ulbricht's going to do some fun shit with him this year. I don't know if he's going to start or what, but like, I think he's going to be in the mix in that slot role until we get Billy Bowman back. I feel like that's the place we will most quickly see. And I'd want him to because, like, you don't have any pop if you don't have Billy Bowman or an Avion Terrell in the lineup.

1:33:07Like, Avion Terrell does play, like, the younger brother of a guy who's also really good at playing NFL football. Because, like, he's not that AJ Terrell is, like, weak or anything like that. But Avion Terrell has a little bit more shit starter to him as a younger brother. Well, he's the undersized little brother. you can absolutely trace how that happens he's such a shit and i say that with it's the highest form of most respect yeah what are you watching the first month of the season dave with these atlanta falcons the weirdest quarterback room in the nfl because the report as it stands weirder than cleveland yeah it is weirder than cleveland because at the end of the day i said this before Very cynically, Cleveland makes sense because a really shitty quarterback on an impossibly bad contract is playing out the string because people there want that to happen.

1:34:00Like, that makes sense. I don't know what to do with the Atlanta quarterback situation where I said it a week or so ago. If you were just following breadcrumbs, it made all the sense in the world why Tua Tungavailoa would be the starter here. and maybe he still will be, but the degree to which that has crumbled without anything actually happening, I'm stealing this from Twitter. I apologize because it was a really funny joke, but somebody said Tua might become the first quarterback to lose a competition in which he was the only participant. And by the way, the guy who might take the job from him has dealt with a shitload of injury issues and he just got back to practice like a week ago, Michael Penix Jr.

1:34:40so I don't know what to do with it I'm not very confident it's going to be good at least not right away but it's it's bizarre it's very bizarre because like clearly Kevin Stefanski was comfortable with the idea of Tua being his quarterback or else they wouldn't have signed him like yes and so for that to feel like it's evaporating and maybe Tua makes it to week one maybe Tua plays like the first month of the season but I just have no degree of confidence it's going to be long lasting. I think the hope was that Tua would be good enough to give you stable quarterback play for a good chunk of the early part of the season and then eventually you'd want to see Penix when he was healthy and he had plenty of time to acclimate.

1:35:25I think that timeline is significantly sped up. Yeah. I think Tua is still probably the right bet to at least start week one almost entirely because Penix just hasn't played. He has not played within the offense. He's done seven on seven and he's been in practice, but the fact that he is not, was not fully cleared until very recently. I just wonder if he's going to have enough time to get up to speed, to be the week one starter. I think he will play soon after that. If Penix is a starter by week two or week three, and the two thing is just over almost immediately. And he was only the week one starter because Penix didn't have enough time to ramp up.

1:35:59I, that that's how I would bet this ends up. And I think too, like this quarterback situation feels even weirder than it. it did when Tua signed there. Like, I think when he first signed there, it was a little bit easier to get yourself on the, like, yeah, this can work for six weeks, whatever it's going to be. Like, Stefanski could craft an offense where this kind of works. I think the more that we've seen and heard from the preseason and from training camp and stuff, like, I feel like that's less likely. And so it does feel to me like the only upside case, really, is Michael Penix. And you actually kind of can get me there.

1:36:32Like, I laid this out a little bit on a different show. Like, when Michael Penix plays, plays I'm still not sure what the ceiling is because I do think that he has some pretty clear limitations but he could push the ball and he gets the ball out quickly he does not take negative plays like there are legitimate traits that you can build a pretty good offense around and again if the three superstars that they have in Bijan Robinson uh Drake London who he feeds a lot by the way when Michael Penix is playing quarterback he throws the ball to Drake London a million times and Kyle Pitts out there, it's like, okay, maybe we don't see good offense until closer to Thanksgiving and maybe it's a little bit too late, too little too late.

1:37:09But I can see the world where they actually do look like a pretty competent offense with Michael Penix. With Penix are not terrible. They're slightly below average, pretty much across the board, but they're not terrible. You get watchable offense when he has been out there for the most part. And I think with everything else that's in place, I wouldn't be surprised if we got to a finishing point where it was a watchable offense when he's back and healthy. They believe they can run the ball. I think that is, and that's kind of what I'm watching over the first month of the season. What does the rest of the offense end up shaking out to be?

1:37:42Because there are a lot of points of curiosity here for me. Tommy Reese is coming in as the offensive coordinator from day one for the first time as a play call, because he has taken over as the play caller from Kevin Stefanski over the last couple of years, but he has not been that guy from the start where it's my offense I am the main voice behind this thing this is my vision for how I want to see this through and I do think that there will be elements of this that look much different than what we saw in Cleveland over the last couple years a couple things that I would throw out I think the run game is going to be more diversified than it was over the last couple seasons in Cleveland just because they think the line can do more when the line is even if you have a question at right tackle what you want Taylor the other four guys three of them specifically with Matthews, Bergeron, and Lindstrom.

1:38:29I think is a better quality line than a lot of the often injured lines in Cleveland's were. And I think what they can put on this group mentally is just more than what they were able to do over the last couple of years in Cleveland. So I think the run game is more diversified. I think we get a shitload of Bijan, just period. They're going to run the ball a ton. I think they did a lot of work in the offseason about some of the McCaffrey stuff and how we can find layers to the passing game where we can do even more with him as a receiver than they'd ever done in the past. The question to me is going to be, all right, if you can run the ball credibly, which I think they can do, the receiving core outside of London is bizarre.

1:39:06It is just such a weird collection of players. And why I think it is important, and the considerations here are kind of naughty, is that they want to move Drake around. You need to to get the most out of him. He's such a good player and receiver inside. Well, who are you going to stick outside if you do that? All the guys that you have are like 5 '11 or shorter. And so I think they're going to have to be really creative with the ways that they're using those guys, hiding those guys, and getting Drake into advantageous situations. For the most part, when in Atlanta or in Cleveland, this is not a heavy motion usage team.

1:39:46It will be this year. They will use a ton of motion, stacks, bunches to be able to give those guys an opportunity to survive on the outside, quote unquote, while you're using Drake one in all the ways that you want to. Like when Zachariah branches, theoretically, you're a number two receiver by the end of the season, you're going to have to be creative with the ways you're using him. If you're going to put Drake one in the slot. And so those elements of the offense, I'm very curious to see what those end up looking like. Zachariah branches, a guy you can get creative with the whole thing on him coming out of georgia was does he ever run routes down the field like can we see him get the ball more than five or six yards down the field but you watch it preseason game i think it was the first pass he looks good that they put him on the outside he ran a blaze out and they threw it to him and they really do believe in his ability to do like real receiver things on top of the gimmicky shit there are plenty of people in the draft sphere who are like georgia just didn't let him do any of that shit it doesn't mean he can't do it.

1:40:46For being a third-round pick, I think, and also just what is in front of him on the depth chart in Atlanta other than Drake London, like, I think that's a third-round pick worth being more excited about than your average third-round pick. Zaccheaus is going to play a decent amount at the beginning of the year, I think, just because he is that, like, consummate. There's a reason that you can go from Chicago's offense to an offense like this that's going to use a shitload of motion and be a player that's relied on early in the season the exact same way the Bears did, because he's smart. he's smart he's a veteran we can put a lot on him and so I think that's the that's one of the pluses of this group overall even if there's not a lot of true difference making players outside of London Bichon and Pitts is that they think it's a smart group that they can pull a lot of sneaky levers with when it comes to motions things like that in order to get by and as far as the run game like Zaccheaus will throw down a little bit as a blocker and their second tight end Charlie Werner is not particularly dynamic as a pass catcher but he is a pretty good blocker for them and so the fact that they've like again I don't know who the you know best pass catcher outside of the superstars is supposed to be but at least these other guys are useful and like do something for you and you can see what their role is supposed to be within the offense what was your thing that you were watching over the first month of the season Derek you touched on it a little bit it's mostly the run game like what does it look like because it almost it just has to be different I mean last the last handful of years whether it was Arthur Smith calling the plays Zach Robinson with Dwayne Ledford there's the offensive line coach it was just all zone all the time and the Stefanski Reese offenses for them like when they have been good obviously the last couple of years it was a little bit more simplified but when they were at their peak and when they were good it was a lot more like doing you know pulling guards and it was a lot more counter and it was a lot more trap and it's just they had a varied run game where on any given down you just didn't know exactly what you were going to get from the run game and so how much more of that we see I'm interested in and how good can they be at that when like it's such a dramatic change for this offensive line and I do think that they can handle it mentally and these guys are pretty talented but when it's just such a dramatic change sometimes it's a little bit hard to like picture exactly how good it's supposed to look yeah and I think it will be a fairly dramatic change and so the question is going to be how much can they put on this group as a whole to be the engine of the entire offense?

1:43:04Because I think that's the bet that they're making here. What is keeping you up at night, David, about the 2026 Atlanta Falcons? As I said at the top of the show, I don't know if anything about the 2026 Falcons is keeping me awake at night. And we've been joking all year that they're just, this is a wait and see year. And so I feel like they're just content to let this thing play out. I don't know how high the stakes are. I'll get real existential with it, though. In the big picture, I appreciate y 'all giving me some perspective that Pitts, Drake, and Bijan are all locked in for the foreseeable future.

1:43:41But at some point, I start to get nervous that with each passing season, these guys are becoming not any young. Like, they're not getting younger. The clock is ticking on these three phenomenal players, and I start to get nervous that we're going to look up and say, holy shit these guys like never had a chance to play meaningful nfl football i mean pitts is entering year six drake is entering year five bajan is only 24 i get that he has a thousand touches already he leads the league in career touches since getting into the nfl over saquon barkley and derrick henry and cmc but i guess cmc missed most of that he had some injuries his rookie year he didn't play as much as you think cmc yeah you i don't have time to wait for these guys to be playing big time NFL football.

1:44:29And this feels like a season where that's not going to happen. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my assumption. And that's not okay. It's not okay to have a core of skilled players like this and just be like, well, guess we'll see what they do next year. That sucks. So that's what I'm losing sleep about. That needs to change in 2027. Derek, what are you losing sleep about with the 2026 Falcons? I think on one hand, like I hear Dave with the like, we're wasting another year and we probably we are and I do think a lot of that comes back to the quarterback play I think that also comes back to like I think the defense is going to start to waste this team and I think last year we talked about them as this is the elephant in the room yeah this is the one that like the front seven specifically is terrible it is it is not good and last year I think that they were obviously they were much better as a pass rushing unit last year but it was a lot more blitzing and they were just a more talented room like uh obviously this year because of all the uh legal issues that he's going to have james pierce is going to miss at least the first half of the season jalen walker uh is going to miss a significant amount of time they lose kate's out for the year yeah he's out for the year uh kate and ellis who i just talked about in the on the last team with the saints he is no longer in the building at linebacker they replace him with christian harris who i don't really think of as like a move around super blitz piece and so they're losing that element of it.

1:45:48And then the interior defensive line, I think, is still a huge issue, which it was last year, too. It's just that when they got into pass rushdowns, some of the blitz stuff and some of the edge work was good enough that it could still get them some negative plays. I just think that there's a world that for as exciting and fun and as promising as last year's front seven felt at times, I just don't think that that necessarily bodes success for this year when half of those guys are just gone or at least not going to play for the first half of this year. I think the four best players in the front seven for the Falcons last year were probably Caden Ellis, James Pierce, Jalen Walker, and David Onyemata.

1:46:28None of them are on the team. None of them are going to be playing in the first half of the season. You didn't say the name of a player that's going to be available anytime soon. In the first half of the season. This team blitzed on 37 % of opponent dropbacks last year. It was the second highest rate in the league. They were really good at it. The pass rush came alive the way that they manufactured stuff last year. You're going to have to do that again with just significantly worse players. You're hanging on to your hat. Mason Smith has apparently had a really, really good training camp. They traded him for Rook Roro this offseason.

1:46:59If that's your saving grace, like, man, Mason Smith's had a great training camp, I think that speaks to the overall quality and outlook for this front seven. Even if you're excited about the secondary. I mean, we're talking about signing Zedaria Smith off the street on like August 22nd and him being a huge part of your plans almost immediately because he has to be. And even if you look at the pass rush from last year, 25 % of their pressures turned into sacks last season. It was the highest rate in the entire league. So they were on the positive side of some volatile stuff even last year when the players were significantly better.

1:47:34So Jeff Ulbrich has his work cut out for him with this group. I mean, you're I don't even know what you're supposed to do to get this to even a passable place, considering the players that you're working with. Dial up the goofy DB blitzes. That's I didn't say the secondary would be fun in the sense that this will be a good defense. Just maybe you can do some fun shit with those players because you might have to. They're going to have to be volatile and they know that. But it's a level of volatility that I'm not even sure what it looks like in a positive way. I mean, I don't either, because like, again, we mentioned the two edge guys that are going to be not starting for them.

1:48:06And I think the starting week one edges are going to be like Z'Darrius Smith and Samson Ebikam. And behind him is like Cam Thomas and Aziz Ojolari. Like it's these are guys that I think these should be like I think even on like decent teams, if these are your third guys, you're a little bit like, can we add somebody else? The fact that all these guys are going to be like starting and being significant snaps for them. it's a tough start to start in week one let alone if any of these guys get banged up which like Z'Darrius Smith is an older player and Ebikam has had some injury issues the last couple of years what does success look like Dave for the 2026 Atlanta Falcons Penix takes the job ASAP shows you some progress plays well enough that the Falcons are willing to pick up the option probably and if the skill play if the you know if the big three shine because pinnix plays that well you could win this division or actually this is this is the only team i've done so far where i had two i think i have two acceptable answers here that is the rose-colored glasses successful season the other one i think it's it's probably a good thing if just the wheels freaking come off and this is a slog but you're in a position to get yourself a quarterback next year so i am i'm meeting you in the middle on the on that i think the win-loss record here is almost immaterial if penix is bad but in you let's say you win you'll see you go six and eleven this year and you're in a position to draft a quarterback and you have a definitive answer by the end of the season that you don't think michael penix is your answer for the future that is okay to me as long as the bottom doesn't fall out with the rest of it yeah if we're in a place where you're unwatchable for like a vast majority of this season where you we elicit groans when you mentioned the atlanta falcons that's the type of 6 and 11 season i don't think you can have in year one of a new regime the bottom can't fall out of this thing you can lose a lot of games but you can't be more than a speed bump you have to be more than a speed bump for teams it can't be a situation where we're looking around being like man this is ugly by the time we get to december where you're just hitting sim to end that if you if you don't do that it almost doesn't matter yeah like if we're at a place where man like reese call and plays the skill position guys we've got enough pieces on the offensive line when we get the young pass rushers back next year like we'll and let's say whatever the quarterback solution ends up being we have enough around it where we're building positive momentum heading into year two of the regime that's enough for me independent of how many games they win i think that's all it is quarterback clarity for an offense we still want to bet on going into next season like that that's kind of all i think that's right that's a good way of framing it that's a good way of framing it quarterback clarity for an offense we still want to bet on next season and we're still in a place by the end of the year we're like man jeff olbrick is he's getting the most out of whatever these ingredients look like let's get him some better ingredients next year i think it's important we haven't really said this just really be clear about it the falcons did nothing this offseason on purpose yeah they did nothing like this is a holding pattern offseason for a team that because they have Bijan because they have Drake one and because they have Kyle Pitts and they paid all those guys I think it's easy to forget that this is a team intentionally taking a half step back and a team very much in transition independent of the fact that they have a new coaching staff and a new GM and so them not being very good at football this year it's almost part of the plan and I think that's okay but the bottom can't fall out of it i support the plan in the big picture it doesn't make them all that compelling heading into week one of the season it really doesn't i think they're doing the right thing and they play in a division where if pennix plays well enough or if they catch the right breaks they they could win the nfc south it would probably take some but they could do it but either way like i said there are there are multiple paths forward to a successful season which that's it's definitely copium but at least there's that i like what derek said because i if they go 10 and 7 and penix is great that is quarterback clarity for an offense we're still excited about if they go 6 and 11 and penix is bad but the rest of it is good that is quarterback clarity for an offense that we're still excited about and so that it's it's one of the weirder answers but i actually do think that's a great way because because like i almost don't really care what happens with the defense because the front seven is just so banged up that I'm like, I'm like, I don't know, man.

1:52:41But like, and I actually think it will be interesting and kind of telling that if, if this defense is much worse and they've got to play a bunch of shootouts and they just get in these weird games and Penix looks like capable by the end, he's going to have to go win them a number of shootouts. And I think you're going to start to get like a pretty clear look of like, okay, how much of this can he really handle? And so So I think we will get quarterback clarity. And so, again, whether that's a 10 win and the offense looks pretty good or six wins and we got to go get somebody else, I think we will get that clarity.

1:53:12If Michael Penick hasn't become the guy, I'd be thrilled. I like watching him play. He plays an exciting brand of football. He has limitations. But a world where Michael Penick becomes that guy for the Falcons, I would love that even if I'm not sure how confident I am and it ended up being that way. I'm not confident in the big picture, but I I'll bet you$50 right now. The Michael Pennix Falcons are going to play one of the games of the year this year. Cause they're good for one a year. That is true. They're good for like a 33 30 barn burner. They play the Bengals on a, on November 8th. It's going to be the most fun I have all year.

1:53:46Oh, it's a, it's a Europe game too. Yeah. uh, uh, 45, 42 Bengals Falcons game. I don't wake you up in the morning. Let's go dude. All right. That is all we've got for the Falcons and for the NFC South preview. We'll be back with our next division tomorrow. For those of you guys listening on the audio feed here, live show tickets are still available for the show tomorrow, September 1st at Lincoln Hall. Few tickets are still left. If you want to grab them, encourage you guys to do that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

1:54:28If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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