A Seat at the Table: The teams that can win the Super Bowl

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1:35Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. I'm so excited about today's show. We had such a good time recording today's show. This is the exercise, game, however you want to refer to it, that we're going to try it out for you guys today. We're calling this a seat at the table. And we wanted to do this because we wanted something that we could just have be a through line throughout the entire year that we could revisit. In the past, I've done a show most seasons where we'll talk about which teams can win the Super Bowl. It's typically a list that's longer than you think, and there's really no stakes to it.

2:09Robert Mays: You can throw as many teams on there as you want because you can build a case. So we wanted to do something sort of similar today, but make it tougher. So what me, Derek, and Dave decided to do is we're calling this a seat at the table, and we picked 10 teams that we decided on August 12th have the best chance to win the Super Bowl? Who deserves a seat at the table of the real contenders as we get to the eve of the season? What we're going to do with this is that all year, this is going to change. If there's a team that we feel like has risen and deserves to be in the conversation, it could happen at any point.

2:45Robert Mays: Let's say it's two weeks into the season. One of the teams we had on, we realized that we've made a horrible mistake and another team has surprised us. We're going to revisit this discussion. We're going to flip around the tent. So it's going to be something that is always available. It's always something that we can pull out. It's always something that we can talk about. We just thought it'd be a fun wrinkle to add this year as we move into a new version of the athletic football show with the three of us. So that'd be a fun exercise, a fun thing to include. And boy, did we have fun making the initial version of this list?

3:16Robert Mays: There were a few teams that were easy. There were just consensus teams. There were a couple of teams that really one team that I just vehemently argued against. and I can't believe ended up on this list considering some of the teams that we left off. That's why 10 was a good number because there are going to be a couple teams that we had to leave off here that none of us feel good about. So I really enjoyed this. I hope you guys do as well. Here's me, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen and a seat at the table.

3:45Robert Mays: Needless to say, I'm pretty excited about today's show on the Athletic Football Show. We've never done this before. I think we've probably done some version of it that's been a little bit less official. You know, there are years in the past, Dave, where I've done shows about which teams can win the Super Bowl, but we kind of do it as like a half-hearted exercise on August 12th, and we don't stick with it. Like, you're not held to it in any way. It has no staying power. The point of today's exercise is something that we're going to try to carry throughout the season. This is going to be a living, breathing document about the teams we believe have a realistic shot to win a championship this year and who has what we're calling a seat at the table.

4:27Derrik Klassen: I'm simultaneously excited, but also dreading it a little bit for that very reason, because this is going to live with us for the entire football season. And who knows? Maybe we'll regret something we say today two weeks into the episode. Yeah, two weeks into the season. Maybe, you know, it'll be tough to make these calls about when it's time to inject a new team into the conversation or take one out. And I, I fear accountability, I guess is what I'm saying, but it's going to be good for the show in the long run. I'm excited to do it.

4:57Robert Mays: The goal here, Derek, is that like Dave alluded to, if we get to like week four or five, and there's a team that we did not have in our original 10, and that's what we're going to land on here is 10 teams. And all three of us, any three of us at any point during any of the shows that we're doing can kind of raise a hand and say that the committee has to come to the table and figure out if we're including a new team. So I'm very much looking forward to this. Maybe we'll have some sort of like bell we can ring or button we can press where an alarm goes off. We'll do something stupid when it comes time to celebrate the addition of one of these conversations as we get into the season.

5:32Derrik Klassen: Don't don't give me an alarm sound because I'll just ring it for the fun of it just to see how many times I can get away with it. I'm very excited for this exercise because I think going in, I thought I was going to be very excited about like, man, how do I build the case for all these teams? and then I actually started doing the exercise and I was just like how do I build the case against all of these teams and whittled down the list which I don't know I feel like that said a lot about me as a person which I thought was uh maybe a little bit terrifying I want to talk through the

5:58Robert Mays: process of how we got to the number a little bit we first came to this idea in mid-July when the three of us were sitting around my kitchen table with Beller thinking about some of the things we wanted to do this season and we're like all right what's the right number of teams and you kind of have a gut feeling about what you think is correct. Like 16 is too many, right? Like there aren't 16 real contenders coming into the year, 12, probably still too many. Like if you have 12, you don't have to make any hard cuts. And the entire point of this is that it should be difficult to whittle it down to the final list of teams.

6:30Robert Mays: And then, so we were like, all right, is eight the right number, but eight is too small of a number. Like you're going to have to leave off teams with eight that are kind of unacceptable to have off of an exercise like this. So Dave, eventually we landed on 10 to be the correct number because it's a small enough group where it feels special, but it's a big enough group where we're not going to show our ass by not including a team that eventually wins the Super Bowl in February.

6:55Derrik Klassen: You say that now, but I'm just thinking about some of the teams that made the playoffs last year and one team in particular that made it to the NFC championship game. I mean, I know that that game was lopsided, but you never can completely predict the twists and turns of a season and who we're going to wind up talking about as we go along. But I'm with you. I think eight eight would be painfully easy because it's like once you get done with the real deal contenders, you're halfway there and you can fill it out as you go. Ten. I think ten is going to give us a real chance to argue. Yes. which is a lot of fun for me because we already, when we were talking about this in pre-production, I already had a team that you didn't even put on your initial list.

7:36Derrik Klassen: So I think there will be a good chance for some back and forth here with 10. I think it's the right number. See 10 to me felt like again, and maybe this is a little bit insight into the way I think about things. 10 to me felt like the right number. Cause we go into the playoffs now with 14 teams and every year there's three or four teams where I'm just like, no shot. Why are they here? Why are they even in the dance? Like, what is the point of this?

7:55Robert Mays: This is a great justification of the science behind our stupid exercise that actually includes no real science whatsoever. I appreciate this. Let's dig into it. So here's what we're going to do. We're going to, this is going to be a consensus, right? Like all three of us have to agree on all of the teams that we're going to include here. So I felt like the easiest way to kick this off was just to start with the teams that are kind of no brainers. Like as we move into the 2025 season, we know all of these teams have a seat at the table. They are legitimate contenders as we get into mid August here in the heart of training camp.

8:30Robert Mays: So Dave, these are the five teams that I'm just going to throw in and say we don't really have to do a lot of talking about them. The Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champions who bring back a huge part of their roster, I think, they probably deserve to be included here. The chiefs who went to the super bowl last year and go to the super bowl seemingly every year. So I would assume they're thrown into the contender bucket, the bills and Ravens, both of whom had championship caliber rosters last year. I think at times felt like the best teams in football for stretches of last season, even if they fell short in the playoffs and the other team I'm going to throw out, even with all of the turnover at the, on the offensive line at both coordinator spots, I still think the amount of truly excellent players they have, plus the earned equity they've built over the last couple of years, we're going to throw the Detroit Lions in here as well.

9:23Robert Mays: So among those five teams, Dave, is there anyone that you think doesn't deserve this like automatic inclusion or do you feel pretty good about those five?

9:32Derrik Klassen: I don't want to push back too hard because ultimately I came down the way that you did. I wrote it down in my notes where I was like, look, the talent on the Lions roster is still really impressive. Dan Campbell has earned the right for me to trust that he can handle the coaching turnover. And if there are hiccups along the way, I also trust Dan Campbell to navigate it. So at the end of the day, I come down agreeing with you where I'm fine throwing the Lions into this category. But would you agree with me that there's probably like a little bit of a line break between those other four and the Lions?

10:07Derrik Klassen: Yes. Like I am more confident in the first four that you named Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles. I'm much more confident in those teams than I am in the Lions just because the Lions have enough turnover in personnel. They have enough question marks with with players coming back from injury or losing players to injury. The coaching aspect of it is huge. And they play in an incredibly competitive division. I'm fine putting them here, but I just don't feel as rock solid about them as a as a contender. I feel fine saying the Lions are a playoff team. But if we're supposed to be talking about teams that can really win a championship, I do think the lions are at least a rung below the other four, but I'm still fine putting them in this category.

10:50Robert Mays: So that's kind of where I land here. Even if they're a rung below the other four, we're not going to not include them in the top 10. Like there's nothing to really argue about with the lions, even if we have concerns and I do have concerns, but this is something we'll dig into. We're going to start division previews. I believe a week from today, uh, we're running this on Wednesday, the 13th, I believe next week, next Wednesday, August 20th is our first division preview. We're going to have a very deep considered layered lions conversation about what we can actually expect from this team. So I don't want to super step on that.

11:21Robert Mays: I have my concerns. I have my issues with some of the turnover. I do think that what they can be on defense from a talent perspective can kind of overshadow some of these offensive concerns. So even if I think you have to squint a little bit more with the lions, I'm fine throwing them in here, Derek. Yeah,

11:36Derrik Klassen: They're a team where I think you for the other four could reasonably rank those as the best four chances to win the Super Bowl going in like those four teams. Whereas the Lions, I'd probably if I if I were to rank all of these teams, one to 10 would probably put them closer to seven or eight. But again, I think it would be pretty unreasonable to put them outside of the list entirely. Like earned equity is the right word. Even if I have so many questions, it's like they still have the quarterback and the head coach and they just won like 15 games. They're probably going to be pretty good again.

12:05Yes.

12:06Robert Mays: And I think there are more questions when it comes to just turnover at specific and important spots with the Lions than a lot of the other teams on this list. But I think the roster talent is so overwhelming and what they were at their best last year. The best case scenario for this team is the best team in football. Full stop. Like if John Morton's a good offensive coordinator, if Calvin Shepard is good at this, if the offensive line is 85 % of it was last year, this can still be the best team in the NFC again. So even if there are more questions, I still feel like the upside, an upside we have realized for this team and stretches in the past.

12:37Robert Mays: That's why it's kind of easy for me to write them in and just move on to the rest. I think that's fair. All right. So let's dig through these other teams. So we're going to do is after establishing those five consensus teams is I'm just going to go one by one here. And we're going to talk through the other candidates, the other contenders for a seat at the table here. This is pretty much just going in order of Super Bowl odds. So there's nothing overly complicated about why I'm listing the teams in the order I'm listing them. That's kind of why we're doing it the way that we're doing it. So let's start with the San Francisco 49ers.

13:13Robert Mays: Derek, do you believe coming off of last year that the San Francisco 49ers deserve a seat at the table heading into the season?

13:20Derrik Klassen: I would still give them a seat at the table because I think at the end of the day, if you just tell me that Kyle Shanahan is going into the season with the same quarterback, a quarterback who I believe to be better now than he was at this time a year ago, you still have maybe the best tight end in the league. Like I just the offense, the floor feels like the 10th best in the league, which is basically kind of what they were last year with 100 things going wrong. And then I've said enough times on this show that I think the defense will be it'll be fine. I don't think it's going to be a great unit, but I think it'll be solid.

13:52Derrik Klassen: So them to me, it's just, I don't know, Kyle Shanahan. You always have a seat.

13:55Robert Mays: Dave, if you, a couple of weeks ago, we did the half-baked take show and your half-baked take about the Niners was you're just not going to overthink it. Like this is an 11 win playoff team. That's a half-baked take. I'm holding you to this now. Are you willing to make it a fully baked opinion here about a week or two later about the Niners?

14:12Derrik Klassen: I had a chance to leave that take in the oven and I feel just fine with it. Honestly, I, so I know this isn't a consensus list, but I made my own personal 10 just to just to reference while we talk through this. I put the 49ers at eight on my in my personal in Dave Hellman's table. It's easy to imagine this version of the 49ers still winning 11, maybe even 12 or 13 games. And like, yeah, I don't need to rehash what Derek just said, but I agree with all of that. Again, earned equity of what Kyle Shanahan can do, earned equity that Robert Sala knows how to get the most out of a defense, even if his jets teams weren't always that good.

14:51Derrik Klassen: And I keep bringing this up and I'm sorry if it's repetitive. I know you can't completely project a schedule ahead of time, but this is a very favorable schedule for a team with San Francisco's roster. Obviously it is a very tough division, but they play seven of the teams that picked in the top 10 of the draft this year.

15:12Robert Mays: They finished last place in their division last year.

15:16Derrik Klassen: That's what of a leg up. And it's part of why the 49ers do these crazy bounces like the years where it all goes wrong. They usually bounce back in a big way because they benefit from playing an easier schedule than a team with their talent should. I think they're going to benefit from that again. So give a team with this talent and this coaching that type of slate. Yes, I think they belong on this list. And I didn't really stress that much about it.

15:41Robert Mays: They're probably more fragile aspects of their offense than there have been in years past where we could just pencil them in as one of the best three or four offenses in the league. Like, even if they stay healthier this year, Derek, Ricky Pearsall, we didn't see for much of last season, they're going to be relying on him in a big way, especially before Brandon IU comes back. Christian McCaffrey is healthy, right? He's healthy coming into the season, but I don't know. Color me skeptical that I could just rely on that at this point. I know that for the most part, he's been much less injury prone in recent years than he had been during stretches in Carolina.

16:13Robert Mays: And last year he came into the season banged up. Like this isn't a situation where on August 12th of last year, they were like, oh yeah, he's fine. He was already hurt. And so the fact that he's coming into this camp healthy, there's reason to believe they're going to be able to rely on Christian McCaffrey this year. And while I think the offensive line is shaky at best, it's kind of always what it is. And I know Trent Williams is a year older and maybe there's a chance the cliff comes for Trent Williams or he struggles to stay healthy again this year. But I just think most of the pads, if this team isn't decimated by injury again, and with this being a top 10 offense in San Francisco.

16:49Robert Mays: And if that's the case, we know a defense can have one or two, three breaks and put a team in contention that's built like that.

16:56Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I think it's just like, again, we might not see the top two or three version of the offense that we've gotten at certain points where they're scoring 32 points a game. But like if the floor last year was ninth and Christian McCaffrey is 10 to 15 percent better than he was last year. And Pierce Hall is any degree better in year two. Like, why would this not be better than it was last year? Which was, again, a really good offense that kept them in a lot of games and a lot of games that they lost by like pretty close margins. Like this was a six and 11 team, but it's not like they were getting hammered in a lot of these games.

17:26Robert Mays: No, I think that there is enough. There's reason to believe that enough of the breaks that didn't go their way last year may go their way this year. And we'll see a much better version of this team. So the Niners are in. The Niners have a seat at the table, despite what 2024 looked like. This one, I feel like it's going to be a little tougher, even though their Super Bowl odds, I believe, are better than the Niners Super Bowl odds. The Cincinnati Bengals, David. In your mind, do the Cincinnati Bengals have a seat at the table? I'm expecting pushback on this, but I firmly have them at the table.

18:00Derrik Klassen: And I can hear people laughing at me. If you don't agree, that's fine. I cannot quit them. And more important than not like that, I can't. I won't. I will not do that. I'm sorry. I know that it is about more than quarterback play and gaudy offensive stats, but you cannot expect me to write off a team with a quarterback that played at an MVP level and all of the talent that he has around him. And that's what Joe Burrow was. I'm not saying he should have won MVP, but Joe Burrow played at an MVP level last year. at worst he's the fourth best quarterback in the NFL we did a whole show about it where we didn't even bother discussing Joe Burrow because he's that good all I need is for the defense to be below average I don't even like we've we've done this before like I just need them to be like 23rd best in the league and this is a 10 or 11 win team because they went nine and eight with a bottom five defense for like just to rehash guys, Cincinnati went four and four in games where they scored 30 points last year.

19:08That is preposterous.

19:11Derrik Klassen: And what are the odds that it happens two years in a row? I get it. I've seen that roster. I don't know. I know. Look, the irony that I'm making this case a few days after their first string defense got decimated by the Eagles backups in the preseason. I get it. I don't have a lot of optimism for the defense being good either, but I will ride with an MVP caliber quarterback and Jamar Chase and T Higgins and all that good stuff. I'll ride with it every time. And if I look silly again this year, then I'll just I'll just have to deal with it. But I'm not giving up on on that type of firepower.

19:45Robert Mays: I'm curious where you end on this, Derek.

19:47Derrik Klassen: So they're the team I had the weirdest experience with, because I've talked about how much this entire offseason. I don't like the defense. I think they could be bottom five again. All this other stuff. Like, I'm not even 100 percent sure. I feel like they're a playoff lock. But kind of like I was talking at the top of the show, I feel like I went through my list of like, I don't trust that about this team. Ooh, that looks stinky. Ooh, that I don't know if this team has enough firepower. And I landed myself with her. I got with the Bengals and I was like, there's only like seven teams I actually feel great about.

20:15Derrik Klassen: And if I don't feel great about the rest, at least the Bengals have Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. And that was kind of where I landed. So they were a team that I thought I was going to be closer to like, are they the 10th on the fringe type of team? But I actually weirdly felt comfortable putting them at the table.

20:31Robert Mays: I think every team we're going to talk about here outside of those consensus five that we just mentioned, there's some huge question mark, right? Even the teams that I think have fewer roster holes than the Bengals, the Packers, for example, there's still a question mark about whether this can all come together. I mean, I just spent the entire day in Green Bay. I was talking to Matt Schneiman, our beat reporter there, and you guys will hear that show a little bit later this week. If you listen to the beat writer notebooks on Saturday, the entire conversation was essentially just me talking through my existential issues with the green Bay Packers and how like, they're like this theoretical object that it's like, well, of course this should happen, right?

21:07Robert Mays: It should happen. Look at all this stuff. But until it happens, it's just hard to totally get behind. We'll talk about the Packers in a second, but it's either that kind of team or other teams that there's a roster hole here. There's a roster hole there. Like the chargers, it's like, who are the, look at the offensive line, like the state of the offensive line, who are their difference makers on defense with Washington? Who are their difference makers on defense? Every team we're going to talk about here is imperfect. I'm willing to put the Bengals in here because even if they are an imperfect team and they have a long, long way to go on defense among all the other teams we're about to talk about, is there a unit among these like 18 that you feel better about heading into this season than the Cincinnati Bengals offense?

21:48not many, not really.

21:50Derrik Klassen: And that was, I think why I had the weird experience with them. Cause I think, I think there's a chance that the defense is so bad that during the regular season, it might make it hard to win enough games to like really get a good spot in the playoffs. But I mean, if they get there, you have Joe Burrow and Jamar chase and they can score 30 points a game in a playoff game. That was actually my biggest deciding factor when I did this is we're going to talk about some teams where it's like, okay, they could win 10, 11 games. They could be really good but can I imagine them winning three games in a row potentially on the road to get to the Super Bowl can I picture that happening and with a few of these teams I was like not really with the Bengals I absolutely can picture that I can picture them doing that with vivid clarity we've seen them do it before granted I'm well aware the Bengals defense carried them through the 2021 playoffs.

22:43Derrik Klassen: But when you have Burrow and those guys playing at the level we've seen in recent years, you can picture it and you just need the defense to do a little bit of work. That's what it makes me laugh. The Bengals are going to step on themselves three times this year and I'm going to catch hell for believing in them. But I don't care if they get in the dance, they will be one of those teams that everybody views as incredibly dangerous because there just aren't many teams that can bring what they do to the table on offense.

23:13Robert Mays: This is always a dangerous thing to say. And I'm not even going to fully say it. There's a temptation with the Bengals defense to say, it couldn't be worse. It could be worse. It could always be worse. But it sure can. If you look at the construction of this group and the defensive line specifically, and you just think about all the guys they were missing last year, Sheldon Rankins just didn't play, right? And so they at least went out and got TJ Slayton this year. Chris Jenkins is somebody that his name came up multiple times this weekend when I was talking to Zach Taylor, when I was talking to Al Golden, like who among those young defensive players do we think has progressed?

23:47Robert Mays: And I think Chris Jenkins is somebody they were excited about. So a lot of the young pieces who maybe weren't contributors last year, maybe they take a small step forward. We don't need like gangbusters production from this side of the ball. We need like merely bad. And I think the Bengals deserve a spot in this conversation. And I am open-minded enough to believe that we can get to merely bad with the Bengals defense.

24:12Derrik Klassen: I still struggle with that, but we'll see when we start playing games. Remind me at like, at like 3.30 in the afternoon in week two, when they're just getting sliced and diced by, I don't even know who they play, but they'll probably get murdered by whoever they play. And I'll have to think about this again, but right now in August, I think they can be merely bad. No, that's why the Bengals are the most annoying, actually, is because in September, you don't know what the Bengals are. You have to get to late. You have to get to Halloween to know what the Bengals are, because they're like every year they've been bad in September, regardless of whatever we want to say about.

24:48Derrik Klassen: Hey, but they played the starters in the preseason and they looked great. So I am. Look, that's my copium leaf. Yeah, my copium is that that's going to matter and that they're going to score 30 points in week one. The offensive starters looked great.

25:01Robert Mays: don't worry about that Robert I know it's one of those moments I was there like two days after they played that preseason game against the Eagles and there was almost like an apologetic tone from people being like well you know we didn't do anything in that game we were really vanilla in that game it's like guys I don't give a shit about what the defense looks like in the preseason game like you don't have to apologize to me about how that just went but it's just funny that even in the preseason there's kind of like a I promise it's like it's like when you you meet a significant other's like, like friend.

25:33Robert Mays: And like that person comes off really badly. And they're just like, I promise that Tracy is not like that all the time. Like, I'm really sorry. Like I just, I understand that was bad, but I promise you that's not how it always, that's not how it goes.

25:45Derrik Klassen: I actually love hearing that. Cause I know the cliche is that you want guys to block out the noise and everything, but everybody in that building should be well aware that like that can't happen. It's the only thing stopping you from being a Superbowl contender. That's what we're talking about. Everybody in the building should be alarmed and trying to have the defense be better. So good for them for at least having urgency.

26:08Robert Mays: The one other thing I'll say about the offense for Cincinnati, I think they have a chance to be better personnel wise on offense this year than they were last year, because the guard play, there are questions about the guards this year, right? Cody Ford and Lucas Patrick at right guard. You have a third round rookie stepping in at left guard. That's a situation where I actually do feel pretty confident saying it It couldn't be worse. It couldn't be worse than it was last year.

26:31Derrik Klassen: I can buy more actually. Yes.

26:32Robert Mays: So even if you have a rookie and a competition at right guard, I still feel like that combined with the Marius Mims being healthy at right tackle for the entire season. I just think that there is a chance. Chase Brown being the starting running back from day one, them being able to construct the running game around his strengths versus whatever they were doing last year at this time. So there is a real chance. The Bengals are the best offense in football, full stop. And that just demands a lot less of your defense. So I think there's a clearer path for them to get there than almost any of the other teams we're going to talk about.

27:04Robert Mays: And that's why I feel like I'm fine throwing them in here. All right. We are going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back and talk about some other teams that deserve a seat at the table.

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30:57Robert Mays: All right, next one here. I feel like this one is going to be an interesting discussion. The Washington Commanders, who have the same Super Bowl odds as the Bengals. Dave, I feel, I see the pain on your face already. Do you think the Washington commanders deserve a seat at the table had against the season

31:14Derrik Klassen: against? No, not, not even against my better judgment. That's not how I want to phrase it. I'm taking a gamble and I'm saying yes, but it goes against my belief in what this team is in totality, right? Like we've done shows about this. I've already expressed my concern about Washington's roster. The average age is 29. The average age of their starters is even older. You are asking for significant returns from Zach Ertz, Bobby Wagner. Marshawn Lattimore is only like 29, but he is a cornerback. So that, you know, 29 for a cornerback is like 33 for any other position. Von Miller is hopefully going to do something for this team.

31:56Derrik Klassen: Terry McLaurin still not practicing as we record this right now. I don't like a lot of stuff about this team. I don't like that they went seven and two in one score games last year, which is typically a sign that you should look for regression the next year. I don't like their strength of schedule. I could keep going about things that I don't like, but ultimately. I like Jaden Daniels that much, and that's what it comes down to for me, where if Jaden Daniels is awesome, then none of that might matter. And he could be the type of guy that could carry an effort like that. And I thought that a month and a half ago.

32:37Derrik Klassen: But now that we've had a long period of training camp, every time I check in on what's going on in Ashburn, people are talking in like reverent tones about what Jaden Daniels is doing. And I know you got to take training camp with a grain of salt. But when everybody from the beat writers to the national people that stopped by for a couple of days to the broadcasters that do the preseason games, like when everybody's saying the same stuff about how he's performing, that starts to carry weight with me where I'm like, OK, maybe this guy really can just will the commanders back to a 12 win season.

33:13Derrik Klassen: Like maybe he really is going to take that step. I'm not all the way there, but that is ultimately what led me to think that they belong here.

33:22Robert Mays: Aside from whatever the impressions are of the people who are at practice, I think they're kind of treating it that way in Washington. Like just as a foregone conclusion that like, hey, he's just one of the guys that he's he's one of those guys. We have one of those guys. And in hearing how they approach personnel this offseason where they go out, they add offensive linemen. You know, they go out and get Debo, but like Debo is available for a fifth round pick. It's not a huge swing in terms of resources. Overall, the big swings they made the trade for Tunsil drafting a tackle in the first round is we're going to make sure come hell or high water that we protect this quarterback.

33:55Robert Mays: Because if you look around the league and you look at the great quarterbacks, as long as they're protected, they can lift the pass catchers. That's true of Josh Allen, but for that to make sense in Washington, Jaden Daniels needs to be as good as Josh Allen. And I think them kind of following that sort of model tells you everything you need to know about what type of quarterback they think Jaden Daniels is. The question is whether or not that's warranted.

34:21Derrik Klassen: See, this is the team I have. I don't even have a full answer right now. And it's actually, I am going to be a pain over this. No, in pain. I said in pain. Yes. Well, it's going to be both. I have like the Jaden Daniels part of this. I know I was skeptical ish for a long time. That that is like the part of this I am least thinking about. It's every other part of this roster. I still really don't like the defense. I think the front could be kind of stinky and I'm a little bit scared of the pass rush a little bit. And I'm still a little bit worried about a lot of interior pieces that I think have a little bit more to prove in terms of the young players and signing Javon Kinlaw the way that they did.

34:59Derrik Klassen: there's a chance the secondary is much improved and that kind of throws that out of the window and they become a pretty solid unit but that to me I'm also a little bit in wait and see mode with that the offense is a really tough one for me to get a handle on because I think Jaden Daniels is very good and I think that there's a chance that because of the uh because he never turns the ball over and also does what he does as a scrambler he brings you such a high floor I just the Terry thing even though that'll probably get done scares me a little bit I think Debo Samuel is not really a player that we can fully rely on moving forward um and then like the Sam Cosme of it all kind of trips me out they don't really have anything at tight end like I know Zach Ertz was productive last year but he's only productive insofar as like he's catching a lot of six yard passes which to me is not that scary all of that being said and this is very bad process if there's anything that might get me to say yes that they deserve a seat josh connerly looks unbelievable he looked so good in that first preseason game that i was like all right dude if he's gonna be one of those then maybe i can start to sell myself but i'm still like i'm on the fence with this one still

36:09Robert Mays: it's really hard because i think there were enough high volatility aspects to who they were last year that if you're looking at those numbers you can be like come on right like that's like that's stuff like so i'm looking at those numbers right now that's literally what i was just looking at what what percentage of the commander's fourth downs do you think that they converted last dude it's like 95 it's like all of them it's 87 that's obscene so they were they were 20 of 23 on fourth down last year the league average on fourth down last year was 57 they were at 87 There were four teams above 70%.

36:51Robert Mays: That's it. And they were at 87. So who are the other teams, Robert? The very good teams, the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Eagles. So that's another thing.

37:00Derrik Klassen: Our locks, yeah.

37:01Robert Mays: If those are the locks. And I think the Eagles, obviously the four downs are driven by the tush push. And that's part of the efficiency there. But there are two teams in the Bills and the Chiefs. Historically, when you look at third down numbers, third down numbers are volatile. Don't bounce back and up and down. And I think about like the Carson Wentz Eagles in 2017, but two teams who do a very good job of staving that off every single year and are consistently good on third down are the bills and the chiefs because they have Patrick Holmes and Josh Allen. So again, this is one of those other categories is of what do we think Jade Daniels is?

37:36Robert Mays: Do we think he's going to be one of those guys? Because if he is, then the questions about some of this stuff matter a little bit less.

37:42Derrik Klassen: The interesting thing is I'm not ready to lump Jaden in with those guys as a quarterback, but it's not a hot take to say he is uniquely infuriating to deal with on third and fourth. Absolutely. And so, like, even if Washington doesn't convert 85 percent again, I would take my chances that they're going to be really good in those situations again because they have Jaden Daniels at quarterback. And that just is that that is a leg up when you talk about converting in those situations between his ability as a passer, his maneuverability, his mobility, his ability to make something out of a broken play.

38:21Derrik Klassen: So that doesn't scare me like banking on them to do it again scares me less when you have an athlete like that playing quarterback.

38:29Robert Mays: I get that. And I do think that there's a case to be made that they'll probably be able to be really good in those situations again because he is back there. All right. Why don't we table Washington for now?

38:38Derrik Klassen: I want to push them off to the side and talk to everyone else.

38:41Robert Mays: Because you guys are one-on-one and I'm kind of on the fence. I think it'll be easier to figure this out if we cross more teams off or we can throw more teams on definitively. Okay. Next one here, as we move through the Super Bowl odds, this is a fraught conversation considering the airstream of it all and everything that's happened this week in parking lots in Los Angeles. The Los Angeles Rams, Dave. do the los angeles rams deserve a seat at the table

39:10Derrik Klassen: is it too reactionary to say that i'm officially scared shitless no no i don't think so when you're when you're pulling out the fake futuristic technology and medicine i'm a little like dubious which is crazy right because they were a team that was mediocre all of last year and then like almost made the super bowl if not for like a little bit of snow not letting stafford move around in the pocket. And then we get here and I'm like, I don't know if I want to put them in anymore. They had my guy stretching out on a wireless phone charger. That's what that table in that in that trailer looked like.

39:43Derrik Klassen: I was like, what is this? Is he low on battery? He is low on battery. I think that's the problem. Derek and I talked about this on a show. We did like a training camp storylines wrap up while you were on the road. And like what I settled on is that I'm not worried about Matthew Stafford's availability for week one, but all of a sudden when you talk, okay, forget the airstream nonsense, but even we talked about this too, when you're missing joint practices, which is the Rams preseason, like that's how they prefer to do this. That is an alarm bell to me. And all of a sudden I'm really worried about Matthew Stafford playing 17 games in 18 weeks.

40:22Derrik Klassen: And it's hard for me to put them on a list of contenders when I I'm that scared of how fragile they could be. And we talked about it too. It's not just Stafford, right? It's Havenstein at right tackle. He's a 33 year old player who's dealt with injury. Alaric Jackson, Robert, last time we talked about the Rams, you had a positive update on his health, but still a guy that you're optimistic. I think they were optimistic, but I don't, there's, it's still not certain, right? So already you're worried about the quarterback and the offensive line, which have been the things that have led to the Rams demise anytime during this Stafford era in L.A.

40:59Derrik Klassen: So I just if I'm already this worried about it before we've played a game and that's not to say that there'll be a train wreck like they'll probably have healthy stretches. They've turned it on late in the season two years in a row. But can I count on that in August? I just I don't really want to sign up for that marathon where I'm just continually stressed about the the injury report coming out of LA. This is why they are also one of the weirder teams to talk about. I think if I was rating, like if you told me as a guarantee, we got the best realistic version of every team in the NFL, I would say the Rams are like the fifth or sixth best team in the league.

41:37Derrik Klassen: But we don't have to do that. Well, that's what I'm saying. It's like, but then I think about what is the percentage chance that we actually get that for enough of the season. I start to get a little bit more scared and which is also weird because like sean mcveigh could probably still win nine games and get them in the playoffs with jimmy garoppolo right but it's just like that's not what we're talking about we're not talking about squeaking in we're talking about like can you get it done and so i start to think about like what is the percentage chance that we actually get the best out of all these guys when i still have a lot of questions about the secondary i still have a lot of questions at linebacker and then all your best players on offense outside of puka are already dealing with health stuff or are like 30 you know some odd years old and are probably on the back half of their career now.

42:17Robert Mays: And Puka is always dealing with health stuff. Dealing with health stuff is a constant part of his life because of the way he plays. I'm with you in that the best version of the Rams absolutely deserves mention in a list like this. And Derek, the case you just made about, well, they were mediocre for most of the year and then they get into the playoffs and they're a couple of plays away from the Superbowl. We're already talking about a pretty tough needle that you have to thread before we start discussing the back status of a 37 year old quarterback. We don't have to do this. If we get into week six and he's fully healthy and they're rolling, we can revisit this.

42:51Robert Mays: But the fact that he's in the airstream right now working on his back and it's August 12th, no one is making us put them in here. We don't have to. I'm out. Yeah, I'm willing to revisit it a month into the season, but I'm out.

43:02Derrik Klassen: If we recorded this pre-airstream, I would have them in. But now that we're there, I legitimately might also keep them out. I crossed them off initially and I probably would keep them out. I held off as long as I could being worried. But yeah, the Airstream thing really threw me for a loop, man. Yeah. And I like Robert's reasoning. Like, again, the whole point of this exercise is that we can change our minds. But for who, for what? Like, why am I stressing myself out about all of this stuff that has to go right? And by the way, I know they dug out of it two years in a row, but this stuff has reared its head two years in a row.

43:38Derrik Klassen: Like they I mean, they were they looked hopeless early in the season, the last two years. And in 2022, they didn't dig out of it. So it's not like we don't have basis for these fears, right? Like they've had to overcome a lot of shit just to be a playoff team recently. So if they do it again, I don't think anybody will be surprised and I'm happy to revisit it, but I can't, I can't put them on a list like this right now.

44:03Robert Mays: It's going to be hard to prune this thing. It's going to be hard to keep a bunch of teams off this list. The 37 year old quarterback has a back problem and had a setback in early August and still hasn't practiced. It feels like a good enough reason for me to keep them off the list.

44:16Derrik Klassen: That's a good reason. Yeah.

44:18Robert Mays: All right. Let's keep rolling through these here. Again, we're just kind of going through Superbowl odds. And I feel like that's the general scope of how we're going through the list. So don't be mad at me for which teams come before others. Speaking of, we already alluded to this conversation a little bit earlier. I'm in green Bay right now. Let's, let's talk about the green bay packers dave i'll start with you because i feel like starting with derrick is like a cheap one yeah do you think you don't want to start with derrick i appreciated what you said

44:47Derrik Klassen: a few minutes ago robert about the packers being like this theoretical team schrodinger's team and i i've been trying i've been thinking about that a lot and i came down on the idea that the Packers are like the prototype for what you want a modern NFL team to look like. Like if you were just if your team was starting over from scratch and I'm not talking about the specific personnel on the Packers, but just the way that they've built this team is really, really fun. Right. Like you got the young athletic rocket arm quarterback, 83rd percentile in his relative athletic score. He's aggressive as hell.

45:25Like Jordan Love is like he's the type

45:29Derrik Klassen: a quarterback you want to watch play. Like if you remove what team he plays for, he's just a fun guy to watch. He's he's Josh Allen ask, even if they don't have a similar playing style, the offensive line in green Bay is always good. They got a stable of pass catchers that they have invested a lot of capital in. Like all these guys are top 100, whatever. Wicks was a fifth round pick, but everybody else was a big pick. And then they just load the defense up with first and second around talents like on paper it all looks so so awesome and the pushback on that is we're in what year three of waiting for it to catch fire and it hasn't quite happened yet and those of us that like the Packers are waiting on it and those of us that are tired of hearing about the Packers are probably sick of it by now I still come down on the side of like eventually I think this is going to catch fire.

46:20Derrik Klassen: And so I might not be as high on them as Derek is, but I did, I ultimately put them on my list and I feel pretty good about it. Like I, I don't, I don't have a ton of questions about Green Bay other than why hasn't it been better yet? And maybe, maybe some of that is injury, right? Like maybe that's not all on the Packers, but I don't have a problem signing up for another go-around.

46:45Robert Mays: I'm trying to decide about how deep into this I want to get and whether or not I want to go over all the points we talked about on the half-baked take show or whether or not I just want to skip all of that because again that was a half-baked thought about what I believe is the nuclear potential of the Packers because it's there like it is there of course it's there if like all of these half steps get taken by all these young players that version of the Packers I can see it right like I can understand and believe that it happened if you told if you told me if we fast forwarded and like somebody from the future came here and was like, Hey, it's Thanksgiving.

47:20Robert Mays: The Packers are the best team in the NFL. I wouldn't be like, you. I'd be like, I can understand how that happened. But at the same time, I think Dave talking about the collective frustration from mostly, I think fans of other NFC North teams being like, you guys are doing what's with the Packers again. I also get that side of it. And so there are two wolves inside of me right now. There's the, the wolf that believes in the Packers potential and the fact that this is the year where it all takes a step. And there's like the shattering of everyone being like, you're a moron. Why are you taking the cheese again with this team?

47:54Robert Mays: And I'm trying to figure out where I fall between those two things.

47:59Derrik Klassen: No, here, here's my argument. First of all, I think I'm going to keep you short and sweet. I think you're out of your mind if you were to keep the Packers off of this list. My argument is even if they didn't take any of those steps, they were so obviously a top 10 team in the league last year. like it's like I don't even think it's a debate to me and that doesn't mean that you have to say that they were like the third best team and that they would win the Super Bowl but they were so obviously a top 10 team last year and if Jordan loves growing doesn't hurt for the first nine weeks of the season like I just to me this feels like I get why we all want them to be the 15 win Lions type of team but I don't think we should let like impatience guard us from being like they absolutely deserve a seat at the table for this exercise.

48:43Robert Mays: I think you're right. I think you're right. I think my self-reflection about not wanting to accelerate the timeline too fast has probably caused me to react too hard the other way over the last couple of weeks. This is a team that won 11 games two years in a row, right? I mean, it's not as if they were -

49:01Derrik Klassen: They're like the fourth youngest roster in the league last year.

49:03Robert Mays: But we can't keep doing this. We can't keep being like, oh, they're so young, it's eventually going to happen. We keep doing this, and I'm trying not to do that again.

49:10Derrik Klassen: in terms of trying to like throw them over the Ravens and Bills and stuff like that I think that's fine but again in terms of understanding like that the seal or that the floor for this team is really really high I do think that that still matters yeah I think you're right let me let me ask you all this because like we've we've talked so much about the potential I don't think anybody needs that rehashed for them too much but what what would get in the Packers way other than obviously injury, but like what would get in the Packers way of being the idealized version that, that we daydream about?

49:43Robert Mays: I think what Derek is saying is exactly right. I think the floor, if they stay healthy is very high. I think this is all about whatever the ceiling looks like. And that's probably a good reason they deter, they deserve a spot on this in an exercise like this. What would get in the Packers way as, as I understand that question is what would present, what would prevent them from being like the best version of themselves. And I think that's, we get to January and they're a team full of BB plus players that doesn't have true difference makers in the most important games of the season. And I think that probably starts with the quarterback.

50:14Robert Mays: If the quarterback is the same guy, and I know he was hurt last year, but if no matter what factors were in play, if the outcome for Jordan Love in 2025 is similar to the outcome we got in 2024 and none of the other guys elevate into like truly elite players, they're probably not good enough to break through. Like they probably fall short of the goals organizationally they have for this year. But even if that happens, they still are probably one of the 10 best teams in the league, which I think goes exactly.

50:44Derrik Klassen: Thank you. I think that goes back to my point of like, why it's easy to fall in love with the Packers is like, it's just easy to assume that this collection of top 100 draft picks is going to grow and improve. And Edron Cooper is going to to be a better player this year than he was last year. And I haven't given up on Quay Walker or like whoever it is that they drafted highly, that guy could be better. And some, some of that has happened, probably not enough. And like, they, they need it to like, they need those steps to be taken by some of these guys. That's the third year in a row we're saying it, but, but maybe, maybe this is the year hope springs eternal.

51:24Robert Mays: I mean, they had top 10 units on both sides of the ball last year. Like if they're the exact same team they were last year, there's, they still deserve to be on this list of the 10 best teams in the league. And I think that's why I'm, I'm tempted to just throw them on and then we can discuss the ceiling and what will either get them there or prevent them from getting there over the next month as we get toward the season and talk about all these teams individually. I don't think we have to decide that today.

51:47Derrik Klassen: Exactly. Like again, maybe they never take the step into the Baltimore, you know, Buffalo Philly tier, but like it's, I don't see how you could put 10 teams over them. That's my argument.

51:57Robert Mays: Derek, I have, I don't even know if I'm going to say any of it on the podcast. I have so many things to tell you that are going to just put you over the top with like stuff I saw today. Like I, I almost, I almost, I almost hesitate to tell you about like what Tucker craft looked like today at practice. And just like, I'm not even going to do it. I'm not even going to do it. Like no, no one benefits from me divulging any of this to you. Okay. So we can all agree. Even if the ceiling is still mildly in question, we think the Packers deserve a seat at the table.

52:29Derrik Klassen: Firmly. Yeah. I'm not thinking that hard about it.

52:31Robert Mays: Okay. So we have eight teams. Now we have the five consensus ones. We talked about the Niners, the Bengals and the Packers, the Rams crossed off Washington TBD Washington. We will revisit as we move through some of the rest of these teams. All right. Before we get to the rest of this list, We are going to take one more quick break.

53:46Derrik Klassen: We'll be right back. offers because Schwab knows that when it comes to your finances, choice matters. No matter your goals, investing style, life stage, or experience, Schwab has everything you need all in one place so you can invest your way. Visit schwab.com to learn more.

54:08Robert Mays: All right, these are going to be interesting as we move through that. So we have one, One, two, three, four, five more teams that we're going to talk about here. Okay. Let's move on to the Los Angeles Chargers. And I include them here because I kind of think this is an easy cross off for me. I don't know how you guys feel about it. When you look at over unders, they're at nine and a half with a lot of these other teams. They're at 25 to one to win the Super Bowl, which is just one step down from where the Rams and the Packers are. but there's enough of a question here about high end talent and with them missing Rashawn Slater for the entire season where I don't know, it's kind of like the Stafford thing to me where I already had questions and now we're going to lose a pro bowl borderline, all pro left tackle from the start.

54:53Robert Mays: And we're already wondering how many blue chip players this team has that I think there are no for me, Dave. I don't know if that's a little bit too harsh, but that's kind of where I sit right now.

55:02Derrik Klassen: I think this is a good place to state again for the record. We're not talking about making the playoffs. Right. Like I can imagine a world where the Chargers are a playoff team. That's not a big stretch. But if we're talking about the Super Bowl, about making a run through the playoffs and the types of teams you have to beat to get to the Super Bowl, I can't do it, man. And a big part of it, honestly, for me is Rashawn Slater, because I think the version of the Chargers that makes that leap is supercharged by their offensive line. Omari and Hampton is running behind two all pro caliber tackles or at least pro bowl caliber tackles.

55:42Derrik Klassen: Mekhi Becton looks great and juices the interior of the line. The play action comes together. The run game is hellish and it buys Justin Herbert time to just not have to do everything himself. And that is already that's already messed up. Like not to say that their offensive line can't be useful. Joe Alt played left tackle in college. So like I'm not I'm not throwing the chargers on the scrap heap. But if the, if the a plus version of this team has already taken a hit in August, it's tough for me. And they didn't do enough with the pass catchers for my taste in the off season. The defense certainly isn't bad, but, but did they upgrade it?

56:22Derrik Klassen: I don't really think so. You look at the division that they play in where I don't want to speak for y 'all, but I've just go ahead and assume that they're not going to win the AFC West. It's tough for me. There's there's a lot working against it. And for that reason, I'm I'm with you and I'm out. The best case scenario for them is just not good enough. It's just not good enough. Like the worst case scenario, I think, is better than most teams in the league, because like I just Harbaugh is a great coach. I think the defense is really well coached. Herbert is Herbert. I just they don't have the firepower.

56:52Derrik Klassen: And some of that is the offense, right? Like I think obviously losing Slater, that hurts them a lot. We saw what their pass rush unit can already or their pass protection unit can already look like against Houston in last year's playoffs. And that was with those guys healthy. So I think you have that aspect of it. The pass catching core, unless Trey Harris is the best rookie receiver in the league, is not going to be any better than it was last year.

57:12Robert Mays: You don't believe in Keandre Lambert Smith. That's your mistake here.

57:16Derrik Klassen: Maybe if he can be if if either there, I'll give it to them. If either of the rookies can be the best receiver in the league, then that's fine. And I really love O'Marrion Hampton. But yeah, if he's not going to be running behind a top six left tackle anymore, then I start to get a little bit scared about that and then defensively Robert we talked about this earlier in the offseason it's a really well coached defense and they have some solid players they got fried by the best quarterbacks in that they played last year like they gave up 40 to Baker Mayfield and the playoff game CJ Stroud fried them Lamar Jackson put up 30 on them Joe Burrow put up 27 in that game where it was just bombs away for a lot of that game I just and I know again some of that was some of the injuries they were dealing with later on but like the reality is most teams are going to get injured.

57:57Derrik Klassen: And if you don't have the star power to help make up for it, I just get a little bit worried. So this is a team that I feel pretty confident will like be in the wild card or in the graphic on the last week of the season. It's just hard to imagine them lifting the trophy at the end.

58:12Robert Mays: I think questioning the ceiling is totally valid. And here's why I don't even feel bad leaving them off of this. The way they approached this off season, I don't think they think that they're a Super Bowl team right now. Right. I mean, they're going at this in a very methodical way. Like how they're slow playing this and essentially saying we're going to be a draft and develop team. That's where we're going to find where we're going to find our stars. Okay. That's a completely reasonable approach, but those stars have not emerged yet. We did a study, I think it was two summers ago, me and Nate, just as an off-season idea of like, what are the component parts you need to win a Super Bowl?

58:45Robert Mays: Like how many blue chip players do you need? And I want to say we landed on like between five and six. And that's like true blue chip guys. I don't think the Chargers, all pro level like players. The Chargers don't have that, right? Like it's Ladd McConkie. Maybe if Joe Walt takes a step and then on defense, it's Khalil Mack, you know, and, but other than that, like maybe Derwin James, maybe Day on Henley takes a step. And then the quarterback is very good, but I just think there's too much necessary development from in-house players and it's projection on for them. Like the Packers, we've seen them be a top six offense each of the last two years.

59:19Robert Mays: The Chargers, we have not seen that. There's enough inconsistency and holes and questions about the run game and the offensive line where I just think that there's way too much ground to make up to include them in something like this compared to the other teams that we're going to talk about. Even if we think the floor is high, the ceiling is limited enough where cross enough.

59:40Derrik Klassen: And again, especially I think I would call Rashawn Slater a blue chip player and you don't have him. You don't have what I mean. You're already, you're not going to want to love. Yeah, no, I don't love it.

59:52Robert Mays: Next one here. Let's stick in the AFC West. This one's going to be a tough one. Denver Broncos, Dave. Do the Denver Broncos deserve a seat at the table in your mind?

1:00:02Derrik Klassen: So Derek and I talked about Denver a couple of weeks ago. and where I come down with them is I adore the long-term outlook for this team. Like over the next two, three years, I'm buying all the stock I can. Like I'm trying to get the Broncos cheap so I can sell high in three years for all of the cliche reasons. Like you, I mean, you got a good young quarterback who is four or five years away from costing you a lot of money. They've already done some good business this off season, by the way, like not just, um, Cortland Sutton, but Zach Allen, too. Like you got two of your bigger players on both sides of the ball locked in for the long term.

1:00:39Derrik Klassen: Nick Benito is really the only free agent of consequence that you have to worry about next year. And they've got plenty of cap space. So this is a team that's already in a good spot and can really start cooking with gas here over the next couple of years. In 2025, I don't think that they have the juice to win the Super Bowl. Again, not talking about making the playoffs, not talking about winning 10 games, but to get through, especially in the AFC, where we can already assume that you will have to play a game against Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes or potentially multiple of those guys.

1:01:18Derrik Klassen: I don't see it. I, you know, I'm not blaming them because I love when teams approach these things responsibly. But But if Evan Ingram and potentially RJ Harvey are your biggest investments on the offensive side of the ball, an offense that you're probably already not super excited about the skill talent. We know the offensive line is good, but but the weapons. I can't get there. And same thing I said about the Chargers. I'm just going to assume that the best case scenario for you as the Denver Broncos is the five seed in the AFC. So you're probably not playing a home game the entire trip through the playoffs.

1:01:54Derrik Klassen: I don't love it. I like this team a lot in the big picture right now. I don't see how they navigate an entire playoff field, but you tell me if I'm wrong. All the teams that we've included so far,

1:02:08Robert Mays: all of them. And I don't think I want to be careful here because I don't think this is like the barometer that we should use for quarterbacks, but I think it's worth mentioning here. All of the teams that we've included so far here, the quarterbacks in on those teams have won playoff games, all of them. and I think have shown, like have played well enough in the postseason to be like, oh yeah, I could see this guy playing in and winning a Super Bowl. Jordan Love, I think is probably the diciest among all of those because I think Purdy we've seen play in the Super Bowl. But Jordan Love, like we saw Jordan Love destroy the Cowboys in the playoffs.

1:02:40Robert Mays: Like even if we're slightly concerned about his ceiling as a player, where he belongs, the hierarchy, all of that, I feel confident in saying he can play well enough against the best teams in the league for you to win a playoff game. We haven't really gotten that from Bo Nix yet. And I don't think that quarterback wins in the playoffs should dictate how we talk about teams. But when you're playing against the best competition, when things are imperfect for you, when you're having to play while pressured, when you're having to be a playmaker, when you're having to play in mucky pockets, what do you look like in the biggest moments of the season?

1:03:09Robert Mays: We're not there yet with Bo Nix. even if we believe he can get there and even if we believe he showed a lot last year it's still a big enough question mark for me to hold them off of something like this especially when you compare them to all the teams that we just talked about and even a team like Washington where we've seen

1:03:25Derrik Klassen: it with Jaden Daniels I think for the most part I agree so if we if you guys are are one across them off I think that's fine I they were a team that I wanted to hold off at least until the end And here's I'll make try to make the optimistic case. I understand that this is an offense driven league, and I have a lot of questions about whether the offense can take a step. I'm probably not as high on Bo Nix as other people. And I don't think they added like that much firepower unless you really think Evan Ingram is that much of a difference maker. And the truth with the offensive line probably won't be as healthy as it was last year.

1:03:55Derrik Klassen: Not because I think they're it's just by law of averages, they probably won't. My case for them is like if I think there's a chance they can be the best defense in the league. And there absolutely is. And they're like, they absolutely could be the best defensively. They might have the best defensive player in the league. I mean, he literally won the award last year. That at least makes me be like, okay, I don't know if I can firmly put you in, but I at least want to like hold a small candle lit for them because I do think that that matters a lot.

1:04:23Robert Mays: It matters a ton. And I think here's why for me, I'm a little bit hesitant when it comes to a defense first team throwing them in an exercise like this. I think if I was thinking about this the other day, like what sort of terms I would want to put this in when discussing defense is headed into the season. And the Broncos are a team that came to mind. The Seahawks are a defense that came to mind. The way that I would frame this is I think this team has as good a chance as any to be the best defense in the league. But that's as far as I'm willing to go with it. Like predicting how good defenses are going to be is so, so hard.

1:05:00Robert Mays: unless they are like the best defense in the league or the second best defense in the league. I still have enough questions about the offensive ceiling that I don't know in totality if it's enough in an exercise like this. Like if they're the fourth best defense in football, if they're just really good, I still think I have enough questions about the offensive ceiling where it holds me back a little bit compared to the offense first teams that we've talked about so far and might talk about again.

1:05:25Derrik Klassen: I probably do agree. But again, if you can have at least one thing that I, you can hang your hat on and I'm like confident you can win a game that way. It at least gives you something. But again, it's, that's why that even if I ranked them one to 10, they'd probably be

1:05:39Robert Mays: like 10th, but who is the last, who's the last defense first team that won a Superbowl without overwhelming offensive talent, right? Like the C the last year's Eagles were a defense first team. If you look at it, they were the best defense in football. Their offense was outside of the top 10 for most of the season. but at the end of it, when you get into the playoffs, they still had the best offensive line in football, AJ Brown, Devante Smith and Saquon Barkley. Like I just think as a defense first team, it's just, it's just harder at this point because when you get to the playoffs, you were going to play the best.

1:06:10Robert Mays: Think about the AFC. Think about what the AFC route to the Superbowl is going to look like last year. You're going to play the bills in the wildcard round. You're going to play Baltimore in the divisional round and you're going to play Patrick Mahomes in the AFC championship game. If your defense is what's driving that, I just think it's really, really hard to do that three times in a row. And I think the offense could get there, but we just haven't seen it yet.

1:06:33Derrik Klassen: That's the point I wanted to make is like, even in this day and age, even the best defenses in the NFL, like if you're going to put together a four game win streak in the playoffs, you're probably going to have, unless you are a truly generational type of defense. I mean, ironically, maybe the, you know, the no fly zone Broncos in 2015 were a defense like this. you're going to have a game where your offense needs to score 25 or 26 points. I mean, you see that pretty reliably. I mean, the chiefs a couple of years ago needed 27 to beat the bills in the divisional round. The 49ers as great as those defenses have been needed 34 points to beat the lions a couple of years ago.

1:07:12Derrik Klassen: Like it's, I don't think it's realistic in the modern NFL to think you're going to shut down three or four different opponents. And that's where I look at the offensive talent and I'm like who's making those plays for you if you need them who's making your Brandon Iuke ladybug catch to dig you out of a hole you need that stuff and I just I don't see it with the Broncos this year on that side of the ball no matter how good their defense is and and you know what I'm fine letting the tiebreaker for this for me personally to just cross them off if they were in the NFC I think it would actually be easier to make the argument that if you're the best defense totally that that can ride you through but chances are again like you guys are saying you're probably going to have to play two of Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jackson uh Josh Allen and Joe Burrow it's hard to put down two of those guys with just the defense and listen there may be the

1:08:01Robert Mays: offense takes the step where we get to October and it's like listen the offense is good enough to keep up its end of the bargain we should revisit this but I just we haven't seen it yet like the offense was better than we expected last year. It was still a middle of the road to slightly below average offense. Like it's okay to not be fully bought in on that. This isn't a Packers situation where it's people talk about it being unrealized. The Packers have been definitively very good on that side of the ball for a while. The Broncos, there's just to me still way much, way too much projection to throw them into something like this.

1:08:33All right. Next one here, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

1:08:38Robert Mays: Derek do you believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve a seat at the table

1:08:43Derrik Klassen: easy no for me like they were one of my first ones easy no easy they were one of the first ones I crossed off I just I I think why the offense feels more flimsy to me than I I wanted it to just because of how old some of the receivers are and again best case scenario if you tell like this offense could score 35 points a game and that's fine I just I think I struggle a little bit with like, can Baker Mayfield really win you enough playoff games? The Tristan worst thing scares me a little bit. And I know that he'll come back. But if there's a chance that he's not 100 percent for the entire year, I think that really throws a wrench in it.

1:09:17Derrik Klassen: And then like I still generally buy the direction of this team because I think Baker's a fine quarterback. I like, you know, drafting a Mecca. I think they have some other decent young players on both sides of the ball, but mostly offense. But like when you're going through the offensive coordinator change, your best player on offense might not play for the early parts of the season. And then the defense is a lot of like. I know they threw a lot of draft picks at it and signed Hassan Redick, but that's a lot of prove it to me, man. And they also barely won this division last year over a hobbled Kirk Cousins.

1:09:47Derrik Klassen: Like, I just I don't know. This to me is I think they were kind of fortunate to win 10 games last year, and I don't feel that much strongly about them this year like that much better. Dave, I'm curious where you land on this. the way we talk about a team that's won its division four years in a row every year is wild to me you play the cards you're dealt Derek I look I get it and but hey also circumstance matters in these conversations and the Bucs have an easier road to a home playoff game and potentially a lot more than many other teams by virtue of playing in the NFC South maybe the Falcons can take it from them I'm not saying it'll be a cakewalk but like objectively this is an easier division to win than many many other ones so I think that's a feather in their cap right off the bat I actually am glad that you think about that stuff more than I do because I I just straight up going like do I think this team is good enough and I just don't think the bucks are good enough but if they can get I don't know the four the third or fourth seed you get a couple of home games like then maybe but I just so that part of it I it's I means a little bit less to me I guess here's where I came down on this and the Bucs were my first team off I I don't have them on my list but it basically came down to this is I like so much about Tampa Bay man like it should be one of the league's best offensive lines for the purposes of this I'm hoping and praying Tristan Wirfs will be available and will be good he plays 12 games in the games that matters

1:11:19Robert Mays: then it's going to be okay.

1:11:21Derrik Klassen: Exactly. Right. And, and on top of that, again, trying not to fall too much for training camp cheese, but when Todd Bowles, who is like one of the softest spoken, most boring head coaches in the NFL. And, and I, I, I know Todd, I've met Todd. Love you, Todd. I feel like I can say that you don't typically give great quotes. He's talking about Emeka Buka potentially being a wide receiver one in a a lot of other offenses like that carries weight to me. So now I'm sitting here saying for the gold jacket already, man. That's what I'm saying, man. Like the talk coming out of Tampa about this guy is amazing.

1:11:57Derrik Klassen: So all of a sudden I'm a lot less worried about Chris Godwin not being all the way healthy. And so you've got the offensive line. I love Baker Mayfield. You've got great weapons in Tampa. I think the biggest question for me is can Tampa maintain that level on offense? Because they were top five under Liam Cohen. they have to maintain that in addition to being much better on defense because they were middle of the pack in basically all of the metrics that's not terrible but when todd bowles is your head coach you're supposed to be able to hang your hat on a lot more than that that obviously means reddick's got to be a really good addition so many of the guys on the back end have to hit you're right about that derek like it is stuff that has to happen but i trust the personnel on offense.

1:12:43Derrik Klassen: And I trust Todd Bowles to put together a nice defense. And when you combine that with the NFC South being where they're playing and what they have to win, I just think that's a really great starting point. Ultimately, I opted for Washington over Tampa because I think that highly of Jaden Daniels, but it was a very tough decision for me.

1:13:05Robert Mays: I really don't know what I want to do. I really don't know.

1:13:09Derrik Klassen: We can set them off to the side. That's fine. All right. Let's,

1:13:11Robert Mays: let's talk through this. Okay. I think some of my concerns about the bucks are similar to some of my concerns about the lions offense, where you, we had this unit where it was just so incredibly locked in the, but we saw that we realized the best version of it schematically over the last couple of years, you swap out the offensive coordinator. What does that look like? I think it's fair to project some regression for each of those teams offensively. And for the lions, that might mean going from the second best offense in the league to the eighth best offense for the Bucs. Maybe that means going from the fifth best offense to the 11th.

1:13:44Robert Mays: One of the reasons I feel comfortable just putting the Lions in here is that I think the Lions defense is more than capable, even with a new coordinator, the talent on that side of the ball to me is more than capable of making up the difference if the offense slides. For Tampa, it's harder to tell myself that story because there's so much uncertainty on that side of the ball. So the 23rd ranked defense in the league last year by defensive DVOA. There is a path for them to be really good if the rookies hit, but we have absolutely no idea if that's ultimately going to happen. I think in the NFC, Dave, there is enough of a path.

1:14:22Robert Mays: And I think outside of Philly who have their own potential issues, right? Lana Dickerson's now hurt. We already are swapping out a right guard. They're swapping out pieces on defense. I don't think the Eagles are going to be the team this season that they were by the end of last season. I think it's gonna be a small step back. I think there's a window of opportunity for another team to emerge in the NFC. And I'm open to the idea that the Bucks can be that if worse come back healthy, if Grisard is 90 % of what Liam Cohen was, if the young pieces on defense hit, but there's enough uncertainty there that I think I just want to wait and see.

1:14:56Robert Mays: And we can revisit the Bucks conversation six weeks into the season. Yeah.

1:15:01Derrik Klassen: I mean, I think that's ultimately where I came down as well. Like I said, it was between them and Washington for me. And it's basically it's so many more ifs for Tampa Bay, right? Like if their play caller is good, if Tristan Wirfs is healthy, if the you know, if Mike Evans doesn't fall off a cliff, not that I expect him to. If the young players on defense hit, if Hassan Redick can recapture some of his old form, then this could be a really special team. It's way less scary to just say, well, if Jaden Daniels is the man, then Washington will be really good. Like it's just a, it's a less terrifying proposition for me as opposed to hoping that three to five things go right for Tampa Bay.

1:15:40Derrik Klassen: So that's, that's ultimately why I left them out, but I'm still, I'm, I'm very bullish on the bucks and I won't be surprised if I'm chomping at the bit to revisit this conversation six weeks into the season.

1:15:52Robert Mays: That's kind of how I feel too. And I was actually, I was ready to be more excited about them than I ended up being. I just think there's enough to hold me back. And these spots are tight enough that I just can't get all the way there. Okay. So we have two spots left, correct? Still? Like fully open? I think so. Because we put two spots left. Okay. So we have Washington on the back burner now. So does that mean, according to your guys' list, that the last team that we're going to talk about, do you both have them in? That's the Minnesota Vikings.

1:16:25Derrik Klassen: Nope. you're forgetting one very important team, Robert. Who am I forgetting here? We did. We talked about this. I told you I was going to bring another team.

1:16:34Robert Mays: So now is the time to do it because if you're not bringing another team to the mix, then Washington and the Vikings,

1:16:38Derrik Klassen: Washington does just get in. I have questioned their off season a little bit. I've been a little bit down on this team, but at the very least, I think you gotta, you have to bring up Houston in this conversation. Do you though? I kind of think so. I think so. I absolutely think so. And I'm glad I'm glad you're doubting me, Robert, because look, I look, I don't like the offensive line. You're changing offensive play callers. Joe Mixon hasn't had a training camp and his backup is year nine. Nick Chubb like I understand it. I get it. But at the end of the day, you have what I think is a blue chip quarterback and arguably the best defense in the NFL.

1:17:23Derrik Klassen: and that carries a shitload of weight. Like again, we're having the same debate as the Broncos, except I like CJ Stroud a hell of a lot more than I like Bo Nix. And we've seen him do it. Like we've seen him do it in the playoffs multiple times over. My other point would be, and we talk about blue chip play.

1:17:41Robert Mays: Wait, wait, wait, wait. We've seen him do what? They, he had that incredible game against the Browns. Like what you were talking about. Okay. So is it just that game against the Browns?

1:17:52Derrik Klassen: I thought he played well against the Chargers and I thought he played well against the Chiefs. His team let him down so unbelievably badly in that game. But like on an individual level, he played well in that game. And so we can make the argument that the rest of the offense around him is not going to be any better and we're going to end up in the same spot. But if I'm just going, you know, best defense plus X at quarterback, I feel a lot better about Houston than Denver, even if the rest of the Denver offense I feel better about. I get it. I get it. I want to point this out. it's, it's not just that.

1:18:23Derrik Klassen: Okay. Robert, you talked about blue chip and how blue chip players and how many you need. I'm ready to say, okay, the Texans have a blue chip player at quarterback. In my opinion, I think it's fair to call Nico Collins, a blue chip receiver. Definitely. You have, you have Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter at edge rusher and you have Derek Stingley. You have hosses at four of the five premium positions in football. Obviously, offensive tackle is a huge whiff, and that is why we are all terrified about the Houston Texans. But that is a pretty good place to start, man. And I'll point it out one more time.

1:19:01Derrik Klassen: They don't play in that strong of a division. I mean, if we can talk about the merits of all those other teams, but they should have a leg up if they are good. It is an easier division to win than a lot of other ones. So I I think we got to at least talk about them. We can't just blow past it.

1:19:19Robert Mays: I think you're right. I probably should have been more enthusiastic about including them here. Before we do this, the Vikings are our last team. As we narrow all of this down and you realize who's left, do we feel okay about putting Washington in and having it be between the Texans and the Vikings for the last one? Or do you guys not want to do that?

1:19:39Derrik Klassen: i think i like washington and houston more than i like minnesota so yes where you have i'm good i'm good with washington being in for sure okay so this comes down to minnesota or

1:19:52Robert Mays: houston this is a fascinating comparison you just mentioned i'm just imagining the depth charts in my head okay and i'm just imagining like what's green and what's red on the 11 spots in houston there are two greens on offense it's the quarterback and nico collins i understand those are blue chip players this is true okay i went to texans camp five days ago there are no set starters on the offensive line zero zero not even tied to sour or is he just

1:20:28Derrik Klassen: like a position he was at right tackle the day i was there okay that's interesting they don't know

1:20:34Robert Mays: who's going to start. This is not a problem in their minds. They're using this time to experiment. But it was August 7th, okay? So that's how unsettled that offensive line is. I think with better protection rules and more sound offense, we could get acceptable offensive line play from them. But oh boy, is that a question mark at this point? And as much as I want to believe in the quarterback, and I do, I still think there's enough uncertainty with every other aspect of that offense and a new offensive coordinator who I'm bullish on, but is still a new offensive coordinator. In Minnesota, it's the exact opposite.

1:21:12Robert Mays: If you flash up the 11, there are 10 green ones and then one red one. So I guess that's the question. If we think both of these defenses are top three-ish defenses, top four-ish defenses, again, the framing of this team has as good a chance as any to be the best defense in the league, I think Minnesota and Houston probably both deserve mention in that conversation. So then the question becomes, is one quarterback you feel good about and no other guys except for one receiver? If two guys you feel good about, are they more important than 10 starters you feel good about, a question mark, a quarterback and a play caller we've seen do it before?

1:21:50Derrik Klassen: I hate that. In January? Yes. In January, yes. Like, I kind of trust, I'm sure they both have the capacity to get to the playoffs. That's fine. But like I've seen CJ Stroud play really, really well in January. And I think to me, I think the other thing is I think the ceiling and the likelihood that this Texans defense is like a top five unit is higher to me than Minnesota's. I've talked about how I feel pretty icky about their secondary. And so that's what a lot of it boils down to me. I just can't in good conscience call a team with a quarterback that's never played a Super Bowl contender. Even everything you just said is right.

1:22:28Derrik Klassen: And like, we've seen Kevin O 'Connell do it. We've seen, I know, you know, he came in halfway through the season, so it's a little bit different. But I mean, we saw the Niners do this with Brock Purdy to a degree. It's certainly possible, but winning the Super Bowl, we've never seen that with like a first year starter. I like CJ Stroud.

1:22:50Robert Mays: I like CJ Stroud, but we're really going to do this after last year. We're just going to say CJ Stroud with all other question marks on offense is good enough for this team to win a Super Bowl right now. You guys are willing to say that. Well, I just want to give a for the other team we're talking about.

1:23:04Derrik Klassen: Yes. The Texans with everything that went wrong for Houston last year, they won their division, won a playoff game and gave the Chiefs a game. Obviously, they lost, but like they didn't get wiped off the field. Let me let me repurpose what Derek just said. They won that division. They did. hey like i said you play the cards you're dealt man if you win that division you still get a home playoff game which by just that puts you in pole position to reach the divisional round at least

1:23:33Robert Mays: this stuff matters i understand that we've never seen jj mccarthy play we had never seen sam darnold play well and they won 14 games and the offensive line is better you guys understand I don't know, man.

1:23:53Derrik Klassen: But how many times last year did I say that, like, even though the Vikings won that many games, I don't trust them when it's going to matter. And they fell apart when it matters.

1:24:06Derrik Klassen: I don't feel good about it, but I would at least rather have the percentage chance that I know I've seen CJ Stroud do some stuff. I also want to be clear, the top eight teams on my list. Those are my like, I would put money on them to go do it. these last two teams are just like, it's like, I'm sorry, buddy. This is a team exercise to these teams. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. I'd rather have CJ Stroud if it comes down to it. Sorry. Who's going to piss you off? What's, what's going to piss you off more? What is going to piss you off more watching CJ Stroud, try to navigate a very unideal situation or watching the ups and downs of a first year starter on a loaded offense.

1:24:45Derrik Klassen: I don't know the answer to that. Neither one sounds fun. if you've got pride riding on it. At least the second one is interesting because there's an element of we don't know what we're going to get. I've been frustrated already by CJ Stroud behind those types of offensive lines. But I just, there's a part of me that, again, I just, I want to see it with JJ. And I will say if they're the first team by like week three where I'm ringing the bell and we're like, okay, let's put the Vikings in. I could totally see that where they're the first team I want to reinsert back into the list. But if we're working with this as a starting point of a living document, I would rather have D 'Amico Ryans and CJ Stroud, yes.

1:25:23Derek.

1:25:26Robert Mays: Do you trust Jalen Hurts in the biggest moments of the season? Here's where I'm going with this. And I don't know if that's... Okay, finish your thought.

1:25:38Derrik Klassen: Even if I hadn't, I have already seen Jalen Hurts be dragged towards the Super Bowl already. I haven't seen that from JJ McCarthy and the Vikings.

1:25:48Robert Mays: I just think, and here's why I framed it this way. Even if you have questions about the quarterback and because what you were about to say is the rest of the team is so good that you feel good about them being able to get there. Can't we do that with the Vikings? It isn't the rest of the team potentially so good that even with a question of quarterback, you can still do this. I cannot in good conscience put a team on there where I know who none of the starters on the offensive line are and the position they will play. With a first-year offensive coordinator, Christian Kirk, and another rookie receiver with Nick Chubb playing running back, I can't do it as much as I love CJ Stroud.

1:26:26Robert Mays: Do you guys understand that?

1:26:27Derrik Klassen: I absolutely understand that, but I think in both of these cases, you have to bet on something that has no proof of concept yet. I'm leaning to, I'm just, it's a matter of which proof of concept are you a little bit more willing to take the risk on? I just feel like Robert is deeply hurt by how South things went for the Texans last year. That's exactly right. Who is this?

1:26:48Robert Mays: I am. I am dramatically over correcting from where I was at with CJ Stroud last year. Do I still believe that CJ Stroud is going to be very good? And does in my heart, do I want to like wholeheartedly agree with you guys? Absolutely. I just can't do it. So am I just going to lose here? Like, is it two to one where you guys are both picking the Texans over the Vikings? Cause I, I just don't understand how you guys can look yourselves in the mirror and feel good about that.

1:27:13Derrik Klassen: I think we all agree. Nobody feels good about anything that's happening here, but ultimately. And I, it's not just a quarterback game, but the known commodity who I believe to be excellent at quarterback combined with that defense combined with again, like I'm the one that keeps bringing this up, but like, Hey, the Texans have to win the AFC South. and the Vikings would like to win the NFC North to get the home playoff game and the home field advantage and all that good stuff. Have fun in that division, guys. I would way rather try to win the AFC South. So yes, I hate myself, but I'm rocking with Houston here.

1:27:53Robert Mays: I feel so f***ing gross about this. Honestly, the division is enough of a tiebreaker for me just to say, f*** it, fine. We'll put the Texans on. People are going to be furious about this. Oh, absolutely.

1:28:07Derrik Klassen: Yeah, furious putting the Texans in over a team that just won 14 games with a first round quarterback. They're going to be mad.

1:28:14Robert Mays: But what I want to firmly on record about how against this I am.

1:28:19Derrik Klassen: OK, that that team didn't this team didn't win 14 games. That team. It's a different team. If J.J. McCarthy comes out, the other players are better. Yeah, that was if J.J. McCarthy looks amazing. I like the Vikings. I will have no problem changing this quickly. I don't think it's crazy to want to see proof of concept. I think it's insane to just say, screw it. The, like the quarterback doesn't matter. I know like that that's taking it too far for me to say there are Super Bowl contender with a guy who's never appeared in the regular season is a bridge too far.

1:28:56Robert Mays: So you want to see proof of concept. And that's why you're putting in the offense where we know who three of the players are in the first year play callers involved.

1:29:03Derrik Klassen: My proof of concept is that CJ shroud and Nico Collins kick ass. That that part I'm confident in.

1:29:09Robert Mays: I'm pumped about them in the two on two football league. They're going to crush it.

1:29:13Derrik Klassen: They're going to be great. Listen, when the NFL starts to look like NFL Street, the video game, they're going to be incredible.

1:29:19Robert Mays: It's I do you know how much it sucks that I have to be like the anti CJ Stroud guy now because you guys are pushing this too far the other way. I can't believe this is the role that I have to inhabit. But I'm I'm standing in for the listeners. That's what I'm doing.

1:29:32Derrik Klassen: Somebody has to because I was not going to do that. I genuinely love that. And I'm not being facetious at all. Like football is in a place where it's not an insane take to think that JJ McCarthy could take this team to a Superbowl. Cause like 10 years ago, we would never be having this conversation, but development has gotten good enough. Coaching has gotten good enough. The players have gotten good enough that like, that is a realistic thing that we're talking about, which is wild.

1:29:59Robert Mays: That's why I can't, That's why it's hard for me to pick the Texans in this, because even with the question about the quarterback, and it's obviously a huge, claring question. I'm not dismissing or discounting that, but we've seen what situation does for these players. Sam Darnold was gone. He was in the wilderness. I'm swaying the F word a lot. I'm trying to do it less. He was in the goddamn wilderness, and he threw 40 touchdowns last year.

1:30:24Derrik Klassen: like okay sam darnold though i i know he wasn't good but he played a lot of football between 2018

1:30:32Robert Mays: and 2024 i just i don't and i don't that's a huge difference i don't even think that jj mccarthy has to be as good as sam darnold was last year for the vikings offense to be better than it was last year with better offensive linemen with all those weapons back i think jj mccarthy can be like a middle of the road nfl quarterback and still have this be one of the best 10 offenses in the league because of everything else that's around him. And I think that is actually more likely than so many aspects of the Texans offense coming together, even if the quarterback is the most important piece.

1:31:05Derrik Klassen: It might be because like you were saying earlier, like defensive driven teams don't necessarily win the Super Bowl that often. I think that is a little bit different than Denver because CJ Stroud can be that good. It's also, but to me, it's like, let's say he's not quite as good as Sam Darnold and maybe in theory, the offense is better. how often does the 23rd best quarterback in the league win a super bowl i guess just that to me is where i get a little bit like i don't know here's the last question i'll ask i'm willing

1:31:30Robert Mays: to concede this i'm willing to lose would you be more surprised on how on thanksgiving this deep end of the season if the texans or the vikings had the eighth best offense in football

1:31:43Derrik Klassen: more surprised that they were that good yeah i would probably be more surprised that it's the Texans, but I think like ultimately when you get to the post season, it's like, do I just trust the quarterback for a month? I kind of do.

1:31:56Robert Mays: I'm willing to concede this, but I just want you guys to know. I just won the argument. I'm willing to give this to you guys, but I just won the argument respectfully.

1:32:03Derrik Klassen: No, you didn't. Because again, we're not talking. The Eagles were the 15th best offense. We're not talking about being good. Yeah. It's not about being good. It's about like, what do I feel like the best month of play can look like? And I just.

1:32:15Robert Mays: I'm willing to back down. I'm willing to back down. Okay. So the Texans are on our list. Jesus Christ.

1:32:20Derrik Klassen: I want to be clear. I went in not having them on the list. And as I went through my exercise again, I was crossing a bunch of teams off. And I think I felt good about eight teams, which it was the five that we mentioned. And then the Niners, the Bengals, the Packers. And then for the last two, I was kind of just like, I like the quarterback.

1:32:38Robert Mays: I think the speed at which I'm going to run away from this on social media. Yeah, this is the fastest you'll have ever seen anybody move when this list gets released here over the next 40, like 24 to 48 hours.

1:32:51Derrik Klassen: It is funny, which. I know we need to wrap up, but like. It is funny that we're opting for the Texans over the Bucs, like really, the Vikings doesn't move me like I just I need to see something from the quarterback there. But yeah, I mean, the Bucs have a lot of the same advantages as the Texans without the debilitating questions on offense. But I think we all like CJ Stroud more than we like Baker Mayfield. Which I don't even know if we should like him that much more than Baker Mayfield. We like the Texans defense more than we like the Bucs defense. Let's open this up very.

1:33:28Robert Mays: OK, that's fair. That is that is fair. The Texans defense part, I think, is fair. We don't have time to re-legislate this. This is this is done. you guys have made your bed with the Texans you don't get to backtrack now I don't want to

1:33:41Derrik Klassen: I'm good

1:33:42Robert Mays: so here are our 10 teams that have a seat at the table at the beginning of the season Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Lions, Niners Bengals, Commanders, Packers Texans okay

1:33:56Derrik Klassen: nobody said it was gonna feel good that's the point it should feel better than this

1:34:01Robert Mays: that's why we did 10

1:34:06Robert Mays: as a reminder this is a living breathing document we can update this at any time and when any show any moment somebody gets to raise a hand and make their case for why one team should be in and one team should be out and we will go through the judgment process on the spot any moment sunday night you hit the buzzer it's on and so i'm very excited about having those conversations over the course of the season. I hope you guys enjoyed the absolute mess that this show was. I know I had a good time. I hope you guys did as well. We'll be back with plenty more this week. Slate change in schedule. We are not going to have a show on Thursday this week, just based on travel and things like that and training camps.

1:34:47Robert Mays: We're going to have a show on Friday. And again, because of travel, we're going to be pushing our like week one preseason reaction show. Just so we had a little bit of time to rewatch and talk about some of these guys. Guys, we're going to do a first impressions from the preseason show on Friday. So it'll be before the second slate of preseason games change. It's just kind of how my travel fell this week. We wanted to talk about those games. We just couldn't fit it in any earlier than that. I'm going to be at the Bears tomorrow. You guys don't care, but we're going to have a preseason week one reaction on Friday, and then we'll be coming back with two B-Writer notebooks later into the weekend.

1:35:18Robert Mays: Very excited about that. And then starting next week, baby, it's division preview time. A week from today, our first division preview will be out. It will be available to you and then we'll have one a day all the way up to the regular season one a weekday So be on the lookout for those very excited about digging into those for now. That's all we got Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon

1:36:06Derrik Klassen: We'll see you next time. on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash five for details. Investing with Schwab is like spending a Saturday at a great farmer's market. You can fill your reusable tote with a bit of everything. Maybe you go for some free-range, self-directed investing, or perhaps you pick up a few farm-fresh trades while you peruse. You can even get help from a dedicated advisor. That's full-service wealth management. Mix, match, and change your mind whenever you want. Because at Schwab, you can invest your way. No matter your goals or appetite for investing, Schwab has everything you need, all in one place.

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