Are "bad" drafts an advantage for the NFL's best or worst teams?

0:00Investing with Schwab is like spending a Saturday at a great farmer's market. You can fill your reusable tote with a bit of everything. Maybe you go for some free-range, self-directed investing. Or perhaps you pick up a few farm-fresh trades while you peruse. You can even get help from a dedicated advisor. That's full-service wealth management. Mix, match, and change your mind whenever you want. Because at Schwab, you can invest your way. No matter your goals or appetite for investing, Schwab has everything you need, all in one place. Visit Schwab.com to learn more.

1:00New drops launch regularly, so there's always something exciting to discover. Open the door to spring with Pura. Explore vibrant scents inspired by place designed to refresh your home and how it feels every day. Transport your senses to a terrace in Santorini or a French lavender field, bringing the essence of spring into the home you love. Get started with a free Pura 4 diffuser when you subscribe to 2 Scents Monthly for 6 months. Shop now at Pura.com.

1:31Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. What you're about to hear today is actually a mailbag with Derek Klassen and Dave Hellman that we recorded on Friday. But we had some fun news in the NFL world this weekend. So we wanted at least a couple thoughts on the Dexter Lawrence trade before we got into today's show. This was a fun one. On a bunch of different levels, there's so much to dig into here. The 10th overall pick for Dexter Lawrence is an incredibly aggressive move by a Bengals team that doesn't really make a lot of splashes like this. And so a few thoughts about that and kind of what signal I think it sends.

2:02Robert Mays: We're in a place now where teams have more money to spend than they can on quality outside free agents. As the cap keeps growing, there are going to be more players retained by their original teams and just fewer impact players that end up hitting the market. Really, the only way to ensure that you're going to get one of those difference-making guys is by trading for them. And I think the Bengals being the team that's willing to do this and get in on the act in the way that some other teams have been over the last couple years is really a signal that the tide has shifted a little bit. But even in that environment, the 10th overall pick is a lot to give up.

2:37Robert Mays: You look at analogous deals, it kind of reminds me a little bit of the price tag for Devoris Buckner several years ago. But Buckner was two years younger, just heading into his second contract. Dexter Lawrence is 28, Buckner was 26. Quentin Williams went for a lot at the deadline last year, even if it wasn't the 10th overall pick. Let's just hypothetically say that 20-27 first from the Cowboys is 20th overall. You combine that with 44 this year, that still, according to the trade charts, is a more valuable asset than the 10th overall pick was. Williams was 28, the same way that Dexter Lawrence is.

3:08Robert Mays: So I think the question's going to be, has Lawrence really taken a step back as a pass rusher? Or is he still in that upper echelon of players? And if he is, then I actually do think the price tag isn't that much different than some of the other trades that we've seen recently. And I also think one of the other things to consider here is that it's important to move beyond the 10th overall pick in a vacuum. Because part of this is focusing on the 10th overall pick this year. The prizes at the top of this draft just aren't what they have been in some other years. And that's before you even game out how the top 10 could go for a team like the Bengals.

3:43Robert Mays: When we did our second on the clock show a couple weeks ago, I thought it was illuminating to play out how easy it would be for a team like Cincinnati who is going defense, defense, defense to miss out in the top 10 on Reese, Stiles, Bailey, Bain and Downs. That's exactly what happened when we played out the exercise. And so it's possible that the Bengals, through their own work and their own intel, knew that might be on the table. And that's partially why they were willing to be so aggressive in going to get Dexter Lawrence because they didn't want to be sitting there at number 10 with all of, in their minds, the elite defensive players in this draft off the board.

4:18Robert Mays: So it's a ton to give up when you actually think about it. When you just look at the trade terms next to each other, a 28-year-old guy for the 10th overall pick was coming off of a down year. it is a lot to give up but i do think that there are some layers to this and some nuance that maybe makes the price tag there's a little bit of a gap between what it would be this year and what it would be maybe in another year from the giants perspective though that drop off for defensive players as we get into the back half of the top 10 might matter a little bit less just because there are other positions they could potentially go with there like let's just say caleb downs is gone at number 10 the giants could still end up with like sunny styles at five and then they could go with one of the receivers at 10.

5:00Robert Mays: They could go with one of the offensive linemen like Maui Noah or Spencer Fano at 10, put him at guard for a year, wait till you see what happens with Jermaine Illuminor. I just think that flexibility, because they can go different directions, almost makes the 10th overall pick more valuable to the Giants than it might be for a team like the Bengals in this draft. And for the Giants, from their perspective, the one-year extension that Dexter Lawrence got for$28 million, that brings him to three for 70. and when you think about the top of the defensive tackle market it just isn't that big of a deal and what that says to me is the Giants weren't overly compelled to keep him and so if that's your attitude and mindset about the player and you could get the 10th overall pick in this draft in a draft where you really could use that to your advantage because of all the directions you could go with it I think this kind of was a no-brainer for the Giants at the end of the day so a healthy price an aggressive price for the Bengals but someone that I completely understand from both sides and a real fun way to kind of kick off the week before the draft and some of the intrigue that's going to come along.

5:58Robert Mays: So fun trade, excited to dig into it. Now you're going to hear today's mailbag with Derek Lassen and Dave Hellman. So let's get to it right now.

6:17Derrik Klassen: Derek, I got to be honest i've heard robert phrase the mailbag questions a million times over the years but having access to the mailbag for myself it has really opened my eyes like this this show has quickly become a highlight of my week because i just get excited to see what people are going to

6:35Robert Mays: come up with well i think it's also better now this year that we have the discord because listen i'm i'm sure a certain portion of our fan base is a little bit younger they don't want to be emailing into like to until i get these questions and the fact that we've got discord uh here and getting in a bunch of different kinds of questions i think is good are we really at a

6:54Derrik Klassen: place now where email is becoming regular mail like young people are like ew write an email i

7:00Robert Mays: don't want to do that if you don't gotta then you know if there's another avenue i think that's the other thing is like i think a certain amount of people probably would be like if that's the only way to get in a question i'll do it but now that the discord is there and i don't even like it can just like instantly pop up like it's pretty nice which if you're listening and you want to submit

7:18Derrik Klassen: a question you you can absolutely do email the old-fashioned way but please go find our discord it's in the show description it is a ton of fun i have a blast just checking in with the various channels shooting the shit with everybody when i get an opportunity please go find us there and please submit your questions but without further ado beller is here with this week's batch of questions let's get into it beller start us off let's do it you guys i'm coming to you from cleveland or the cleveland suburbs this time so different background for me i'm in my wife's grandma's one of the bedrooms has like a walk-in closet and that's where i'm sitting right now potting on the road is always so fun you never know what what places you'll go and what places you'll be doing a show from it is beautiful i've done a number of shows uh from here my wife and I've been together for 13 years.

8:08So I've done a number of shows from the Cleveland area and from this house specifically, but it's always fun. It feels it's nice to do it. It's nice to like see my hairline slowly recede year by year when I come to my one Cleveland show.

8:20Robert Mays: That's incredible. That's like your market for your away games. Yeah. Yeah. And you know what, guys, speaking of like you never know what you're going to get. We got a good one to start us off here from Rabble Rouser on the discord. Like Dave said in the show description, join. If you're not already in there, rabble rouser says you can either have the number one overall pick or five consecutive picks from 33rd onwards, which of those do you want? And if you're not taking the five picks, uh, like the 33 through what that would be 37, where's your threshold? Where would it have to come up to for you to be like, all right, screw the number one overall.

8:57I'll take the five picks. Great, Great question. Specifically also, Rabble Rouser says this is not necessarily this draft specifically, just in a vacuum drafts overall. Which one would you want? Dave, why don't you take this one first?

9:11Derrik Klassen: This is a banger of a question from Rabble Rouser, and it's what I was talking about when I say I get excited. I look forward to the mailbag episodes because I love having my brain challenged like this. So Derek, did you, the only natural thing you can do for this, in my opinion, is go back and look at previous drafts and see what you're working with. Right.

9:30Robert Mays: I did exactly that. I looked at like the past, like five or six drafts of like 33 to 37. And I'll be honest with you, mostly like way better than I actually would have thought. Like it's a lot of bangers in there.

9:41Derrik Klassen: I completely agree, but I think I eventually came to a boring conclusion where the grab bag at 33 through 37 is it's better than I probably would have guessed. But my answer comes down to if there's a quarterback there at one that you believe in, I'm taking the quarterback every single time. And so a couple of these really illustrate that, like like like Derek just said, going back over the past few years, let's go. Let's go all the way back to 2020. the grab bag at 33 through 37 is really good. You get T Higgins, Michael Pittman, Jr. Deandre Swift, Xavier McKinney and Kyle Duggar like that. That's fantastic for five random guys at 33 through 37.

10:26Derrik Klassen: But are you taking that over Joe Burrow? I am not. I'm not doing that. And I think that's ultimately where I came down, where I was like, if if you have a modicum of belief that the quarterback is the guy, I still think you got to ride with that.

10:40Robert Mays: I think to me, it's mostly just like caliber of quarterback. But I do think it's like, there is a line, like, listen, Fernando Mendoza's great. Cam Ward is great. These are guys that I would take first overall in just about any draft class. I think the grab bag is like better than the chance that those guys become like a top eight quarterback in most outcomes.

10:58Derrik Klassen: So I'm glad you brought up 2025 because it is 2025. It is a fascinating thought exercise because Derek, you and I both like Cam Ward. I think we skew toward believing in him, but you can't definitively say he did enough in 2025 to like allay your concerns. Meanwhile, your five picks would have been Carson Swessinger, Jaden Higgins, Nick Imanwari, Quinshawn Judkins and Jonas Avenaia. I mean, that's freaking awesome. Like, like all fantastic players, like rookie of the year candidates, guys who did a lot of stuff in their first year. I don't know. That's hard. Like, I still think I kind of skew toward the quarterback, but I'm not confident about it at all because we just haven't seen enough from Cam Ward.

11:47Derrik Klassen: Like, that is a really tough decision.

11:49Robert Mays: Right. And again, I love Cam Ward. I think that he's going to probably be very good. But you have in that group, you have five NFL starters. You have two defensive rookie of the year candidates. one was a linchpin for a Super Bowl the other one Carson Swessinger is like on an all pro path to me like you have guys who are of that level and then Quinshaw Junkins not for being hurt was like one of the best offensive rookies in the NFL last year like you have some studs in that range and there are a couple times where like this range of the draft is not as good like the year before it was it was a little bit shakier like you have Ladd McConkie who was who was obviously pretty good but like Keon Coleman miss Ruka Roro miss Jalen Polk miss uh Drazon Newton is like useful, but probably not as good as you want.

12:31Robert Mays: And so like, sometimes this is going to go poorly for you, but in a lot of years it goes really well. And so to me, unless the quarterback is like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, like Caleb Williams, that tier of prospect, I don't know. I kind of think about it.

12:45Derrik Klassen: Okay. So what would your choice be? And obviously you're not going to have a ton of drafts where a quarterback isn't pick one, but it just happened relatively recently, 2022, Trayvon Walker goes number one overall. Would you rather have Trayvon Walker or Logan Hall, Christian Watson, Roger McCreary, Brees Hall and Jalen Petrie? Definitely that bunch of players. Yeah, I think Trayvon Walker is great. Yeah, he's a good player, but I think I still think you lean toward quantity.

13:15Robert Mays: Yeah, exactly. Like you can I think Trayvon Walker is a better player than all of those players. Maybe not Jalen Petrie. Like I think Jalen Petrie is also a fantastic player at his spot, but you've got again, like a handful of starters and really only like one super miss there. Like I think McCreary can play for you. Hall is more of a rotational guy, but like Brees Hall is pretty good. Christian Watson has become a great player. Jalen Petrie, like the grab bag in a lot of years is pretty good. I think maybe if we're pinning it down to like specific classes, the one non-quarterback exception, Miles Garrett, like that guy was just so obviously going to be a demon that like I would take miles Garrett every time.

13:53Derrik Klassen: Okay. I didn't go that far back, but now that you've said that, I just got to see who, who, who were those picks? It was because I didn't go back and look that up. So Kevin King, Cam Robinson, Malik McDowell, Buddha Baker, and Zay Jones. You're taking miles Garrett every single hundred, a hundred.

14:10Robert Mays: There's only one player in there who you're like, ah, maybe the grab bag would be good, but it's no, you take miles Garrett. Uh,

14:16Derrik Klassen: yeah, I think I'm taking the quarterback 80 % of the time, but a few of the, But like looking back over six or seven draft classes, I was like, this is closer than I thought it would be. Like there's a lot of good players picked in that range. Really great question, though. All right, Beller, what's the next one? All right, we'll stay in Discord for the next one. Tone Shop asks, why does it feel like certain teams are great at drafting one position? For example, Bengals wide receivers, Steelers defensive front, Chiefs DBs, when others can't ever seem to hit. For example, Ravens wide receivers.

14:43Who are some of your favorite and least favorite organizations when thinking about picking specific positional draft picks? Derek, why don't you take this one first?

14:52Robert Mays: All right. This is a good question. I think it kind of like how teams get good at drafting certain positions can I think depends like the Chiefs have gotten away with DBs, I think in large part because a lot of that has been in the Steve Spagnuolo era. And I think he does a very good job of one masking his defensive backs, like the nature of the way that they just like spin their safeties around and they're doing funky shit up front and they're throwing all these pictures at the quarterback can kind of get away with corners who are just like, hey, this guy's really big and he can jam people and we can get away with that.

15:23Robert Mays: And I think that they've done a good job of just identifying what their scheme needs when they're picking guys in the fourth, fifth, sixth round and doing that. And so I think you can do it that way. I think what we've seen with some of the other teams that are typically really good at drafting, like we'll talk about Ravens receivers in a moment because that's a bad example. A good example for the Ravens for a while was like them picking in the third to fifth round, these 260 to 270-pound defensive ends who maybe weren't super productive, but they were just glass-eating type of ass kickers. And they just really knew exactly what type of player they wanted.

15:56Robert Mays: The one that always comes to mind to me is Zedarius Smith. I think they got him in the fourth or fifth round after his teammate Bud Dupree went in the first round. And it's just like they were so good at identifying that type of thing. And so that comes to mind to me. And then one that I think is kind of instructive of what I'm talking about. The Packers used to be really, really good at drafting like mid round offensive linemen because they would take guys who were maybe a little bit smaller, maybe a little bit more undersized, but they were fantastic athletes and had a lot of starts typically at left tackle.

16:27Robert Mays: Like it was such a, they had narrowed down the scope so much to like what they wanted, what fit their system, how they were going to do it, that you just kind of miss less often because you know exactly what kind of guys you're swinging at and what guys in that Ranger actually good. More recently, they've actually kind of moved away from that sort of formula. They've gotten guys who are a little bit bigger. They'll take different sorts of athletes. And I think it has led them astray a little bit and the offensive line has fallen apart. So to me, it is a lot about just like process and knowing exactly what you need.

16:57Derrik Klassen: I also think a more cynical part of this is, and I'm not saying the person asking the question is wrong but when you have some huge successes it's easier to overlook the things that don't go so well like I mean the Bengals just spent a top 100 pick on Jermaine Burton and that did not go well at all but when you nail Jamar Chase and T Higgins and Andre Yoshivas it's easier to say Chase is

17:25Robert Mays: cheating too like when we're talking top 10 picks like that's cheating like yeah Chase is very much

17:29Derrik Klassen: a player where it's like, yeah, I mean, everybody would have drafted that guy and felt good about it. But like when when you knock a few guys out of the park, it's easier to look back at your missteps and say, ah, you can't win them all. And whereas like, you know, if it's a team that's constantly looking, if it's the Ravens not being able to get receiver right, you're just like, ah, they just they can't do anything right. They can't draft that position. So I think I'd call it confirmation bias or whatever, but I think that can color things to go to the point of the question teams I think of two division rivals that do the similar things really well obviously if Philadelphia drafts an offensive lineman I'm just like okay like this guy's gonna be good which I am interested to see if that changes with Jeff Stoutland moving on like that's been a cheat code for the Eagles organization for so long I'm curious to see if they can keep

18:22Robert Mays: that going because I feel like Max Ayanatra is like kind of in their range of the draft and people keep putting them to them because obviously lane johnson probably only has one more year but it's like does does that style of prospect sound as appealing if you don't have just that one in

18:36Derrik Klassen: the building i don't know that's a great point i mean i it would not surprise me at all i might even go as far as to say i expect philly to draft an offensive tackle and some of the whether it's maxi and not sure caleb lomu whoever they like because it's the eagles you're like oh they're going to whip that guy into shape. But with Jeff Stoutland there, is that something we should just take for granted? I don't know. And the other one, I mean, the Eagles have success stories ranging all over the draft. I would say for the Cowboys, it's more big time offensive line picks. Like when they use a big pick on an offensive lineman, it usually goes pretty well for them.

19:13Derrik Klassen: I guess the jury is still out on Tyler Guyton, but the vast majority of their big time O-line picks have worked

19:19Robert Mays: out very well and even with guyton it's not like you know evan neal level embarrassment it's just like oh you've seen some good flashes like he's been solid just got banged up and we just don't know like what the ceiling is like the fact that their worst guy is still like a startable level

19:33Derrik Klassen: tackle is pretty insane hit record that's a great point where it just looks bad because all of their other big offensive line picks are like on the all pro track and like zach martin's going to the hall of fame like that's a tough standard to live up to okay we're gonna stick in discord you guys Let's go with Discord for the next question. This one is CW8D. CW8D. I don't know if he knew. Robert definitely said he wasn't going to be on this episode. So I don't know if he knew this when he put this in. But we're getting a special teams question without Robert here. If you knew you were getting a Matthew Slater level special teamer, how high would you draft him?

20:06What value should teams put on special teams contributors in the draft? Dave, what do we got here?

20:12Derrik Klassen: Special teams question. I know the Discord's going to be pumped about this. I love it and I'm the special teams guy I do think I would draft this player if you're talking about Matthew Slater an annual contender to be a Pro Bowl representative on special teams that dude who can hold all your special teams together very very valuable you're still probably talking about like 20 snaps per game You know, like it's still it's just not that much opportunity to influence a game. I do think it's worth drafting in the same way that some kickers are worth drafting. I don't think I could consider this until like the sixth round, though.

20:58Derrik Klassen: But like every single year we see the value of these guys in the eyes of coaches in particular. Like every year there's a cornerback or a linebacker where it's like that guy's making the team again. Like he's beating out another rookie draft pick again. It's like, yeah, he can play four different special teams. He's going to be awesome for you on punt coverage. He's going to be, you know, he's going to be great on kick coverage. He's going to give you 25 great snaps a game. And that's really, really valuable to coaching staffs. Is it valuable enough that I could draft it before like the sixth round?

21:32Derrik Klassen: I don't think so, but it's definitely worth drafting.

21:35Robert Mays: Yeah, it's one of those things where you see like a number of all pros and like 10 straight pro bowls and you're like, oh, of course you want that on your team. But it's like, again, you're only affecting maybe a dozen snaps a game. And none of them are really when you have the ball. I think that's the other thing, too, is like not being able to affect the snaps when you really have the ball. I think it's kind of what hurts you a little bit. I would probably still say fifth round, though. And the only reason I say that is rounds one through three are like I am drafting a starter or at least an idea of a starter.

22:03Robert Mays: Like in the third round, you're going more for like projects and stuff potentially or lower end guys. But still, fourth round is more the high end backup can play some serious snaps if I want to. Maybe he blossoms into the starter to me. By the time you get into the fifth round, it's like a lot of these guys are getting cut. And so if you tell me for sure that that guy's going to be Matthew Slater, I'm pretty open to that, even if it's only going to be, you know, a dozen snaps a game that he's helping me. And he's not really a returner.

22:29Derrik Klassen: That's a valid point. And Gunner special teams glue guy is also nowhere near as mentally dependent as kicker. And like drafting, drafting a kicker high scares the bejesus out of me because it's a lot of pressure to put on such a mental position. And I firmly believe that that can just break guys and dudes who would. I am a firm believer that the kicker that you drafted in the fourth round who struggles would have been much better if you drafted him in the seventh round. because it's like way less pressure. Like that's that is my conspiracy theory. And but like you remove that from the equation when you're talking about, you know, punt coverage being a gunner.

23:10Derrik Klassen: And so if you're and those guys can play forever, by the way. So if you're telling me I'm getting that for a decade. Yeah, that's that's probably worth a fifth round pick.

23:19Robert Mays: That's a good point, because nobody's going to really notice like who or which gunner lost them is like losing them games consistently when your kicker is like missing 45 yard kicks, you know, you're keeping track.

23:31Derrik Klassen: That's the fun thing about gunners and stuff like that is it's it's pure hidden yardage, right? Where like the ball knowers know that like the ball knowers are like, oh, they did like the other team didn't return a punt all day and it gave us this much hidden yardage and we won the field position battle. And that's a big part of why we won the game. That's not dominating sports talk radio for the next two days after a game the way that kicker struggles might. All right, we got plenty more questions. But first, we're going to take a quick break. This time of year always makes me rethink what's in my closet.

24:01I'm trying to keep fewer things, but better ones, pieces that are well-made and easy to wear all the time. That's why I keep coming back to Quince. The fabrics feel elevated, the fits are thoughtful, and the pricing actually makes sense. Quince makes high quality everyday essentials using premium materials like 100 % European linen and their insanely soft flow knit active wear fabric. Their men's linen pants and shirts are lightweight, breathable, and comfortable. basically the perfect layer for spring. The pants strike the right balance between laid back and refined, so you look put together without trying too hard.

24:29And the Flowknit Activewear? Moisture-wicking, anti-odorant, soft enough that you'll actually want to wear it all day. The best part is that their prices are 50 % to 60 % less than similar brands. How? Quince works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middlemen, so you're paying for quality, not brand markup. Everything is designed to last and make getting dressed easy. My wife and I were fortunate enough to have some grandparent babysitting over the last two weekends. And that meant that we were able to go out with some friends both of those weekends. And both of those nights didn't even think twice.

25:01Broke out my Quinn jacket. Felt good. Looked good. Felt cool. It was just the absolute perfect thing for me to be wearing in that moment. And like I said, didn't even think twice about it. Both those nights knew exactly what I was going to. That's what you're getting with Quince. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to quince.com slash athletic football for free shipping and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. Go to quince.com slash athletic football for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash athletic football.

25:36Investing with Schwab is like spending a Saturday at a great farmer's market. You can fill your reusable tote with a bit of everything. Maybe you go for some free-range, self-directed investing. Or perhaps you pick up a few farm-fresh trades while you peruse. You can even get help from a dedicated advisor. That's full-service wealth management. Mix, match, and change your mind whenever you want. Because at Schwab, you can invest your way. No matter your goals or appetite for investing, Schwab has everything you need, all in one place. Visit schwab.com to learn more. You're a pro at running your life,

26:10Robert Mays: at committing to your workout, at showing up every day, At Bombas, we're pros too. Pros at making socks. Our sport assortment has specialized socks for whatever sport you're committed to. Running, hiking, golf, Pilates, and so much more. Made with sweat-wicking yarns, blister-fighting details, and targeted art support. Bombas Sport is pro-level socks from the pros of socks. For another pro, you. Go to bombas.com slash audio and use code audio for 20 % off your first purchase. That's bombas.com and use code audio.

26:45all right beller what's our next one all right let's go to the email because the emailers they still have great questions and this one comes to us from jake ibey jake says do you think that gms are judged more on first round misses than later round hits john lynch is rarely in the conversation for top gm even though the 49ers have consistently been a top 10 team since he became their gm his first rounds haven't been great trey lance reuben foster javon kinlaw but his later rounds have produced excellent players george kittle drake greenlaw juan jennings talano hufunga there are also a ton of current nfl players that have come out of the lynch regime is this just first round failure bias derek what say you on this so i feel like it's a different question looking at like

27:29Robert Mays: gms generally versus john lynch and and i think a lot of that reason is that one in that building in general kyle shanahan gets the credit fair or not fair that is kind of just how that building goes. But I do think that even outside of that building specifically, in a lot of cases, when you have a head coach who is like a very prominent figure, whether it's offense or defense, but especially offense, as a lot of the guys are in the NFL today, when they're hitting on these fourth, fifth round picks and stuff, it's usually the way it gets spun is like, ah, man, the coach just had a really good idea for what this player was going to be.

28:04Robert Mays: And he knew what to do with him in this system like to me like Puka Nakua is another example of this like there were clips circulating around when the ramp like before the Rams drafted Nakua of Sean McVay being like I know what this guy's going to be in our system I can see the vision for him and obviously I don't think they knew that he would be that good but it's clearly like the coach has an outsized portion of hey I know what this guy can be in our system let's take a chance on this and you know maybe there's some buildings where that is less true like I think potentially kind of like we were talking about the Ravens I think when they were drafting with Ozzie Newsom and earlier on in the Eric DaCosta era it might have been more of just like a systematically this is how we draft players same thing with the Packers and offensive line and a lot of their other parameters of not really wanting undersized receivers and all this stuff for a very long time like I think a lot of that was just baked into how they did it and so maybe you can give the GMs and decision makers more credit but I do think that there are a lot of cases where once you get past like the second third round and stuff it's a lot of coaches and it might not even be the head coach it might be like skill position coaches and stuff like that or coordinators being like hey I've got a plan for this guy let's take a shot and so that's I think generally why GMs don't get as much credit for

29:12Derrik Klassen: that type of stuff yeah my answer to the question is mainly it's hard to it's hard to formulate an opinion on John Lynch like I don't I don't think I have a negative opinion of him it's just hard to parse out who gets the credit for that when Kyle Shanahan has such an outsized voice. So I think the only fair way to do it for me is like just to make sure everybody shares in everything. Like I definitely I think it's a valid point, Derek, to say that like coaching and scheme can have so much to do with guys that you take particularly later on. But I don't think it's fair to give Kyle Shanahan credit when they do something awesome and blame John Lynch when they do something stupid.

29:55Derrik Klassen: So I just kind of lump them all together and just say, yeah, like I think very highly of the 49ers organizationally, just in general, like their whole operation is very enviable to me. But clearly they're not infallible. And I do think you have to say it's not just first round failure bias. I mean, the Trey Lance thing is one of the most horrendous decisions in recent memory. It's really, really bad, especially when you obviously trade didn't work out. You wasted all that capital. And the guy you could have drafted by just staying pat at your pick is Micah Parsons. So that's just a generational fumble.

30:34Derrik Klassen: And everybody in San Francisco deserves to wear that. And so I think it's fair that that colors your perception of them. But it's also kind of impressive that you could screw up that badly and still have a generally favorable reputation.

30:49Robert Mays: reputation which i think they do and they deserve oh 100 like john lynch i think is good at the job i just think like perception wise that's kind of how we arrive where we arrive with them and then i think too it's like part of the reason we maybe don't do as much like maybe like less need for example in los angeles gets a little bit more credit for how they operate it i think he whether right or wrong again gets a lot of credit for the like f them picks style that they they operated under, which I think is probably as much Sean McVay as it is less need. But I think because you're moving around that much capital, the GM ends up getting more credit for that rather than just like sticking where you are in the fifth round and drafting George Kittle.

31:29Robert Mays: I think people look at that and go, well, well, Kyle Shanahan just knew what to do with him. And, you know, I think the GM just doesn't get as much credit for that type of stuff in a lot of cases.

31:37Derrik Klassen: That does make it interesting to think about which GMs really do get a lot of credit. And And the obvious one is Howie Roseman. But I think a big part of that is just because he's survived multiple coaching changes and built successful teams independent of who was coaching the Eagles. But you're right. It is interesting to think across the league landscape about like, which GMs do we say that about? Like, oh, my God, Howie did it again. Whereas, you know, guys like John Lynch and Les Snead are going to be tied to their very successful head coaches, whether it's fair or not.

32:08Robert Mays: That's what it is. We only do that really with GMs who have survived multiple head coaches and then built very good rosters after that. But there's just not that many of those guys. That's not a normal thing. Sneed is one of them. John Schneider. Yeah, actually, John Schneider is a pretty good one. And he's a funny one, too, because obviously, like, the vacillations in his draft history have been extreme. I would say, like, obviously having one of the best draft classes that led to the Legion of Boom and a couple of good stuff after that. and then having a pretty firm dip for there for a few years after that.

32:41Robert Mays: But it really is mostly just guys who have survived the multiple head coaches and rebuilt the thing.

32:46Derrik Klassen: Remember we talked about it in the wake of the Super Bowl. I think we talked about it at Levi's in that postgame show, just like who did more for their long-term image and like historical reputation than John Schneider. Because there's definitely an easy to imagine world where it's like, ah he was he had one of the greatest heaters of all time from like 2010 to 2013 and then just kind of petered out and they never really reached those highs again and instead they tore it all down and look at him now like it's just i mean it is like the perception is so radically better than it could have been if they had kept the you know just kept the pace they were on one actually other guy

33:28Robert Mays: who clearly does get a lot of credit and blame because of the insane way that they operate Mickey Loomis with the with the Saints like that that is obviously a place where people are like that guy's running the show the decisions and the draft picks that's that's all him and obviously like Peyton did have like some voice when that was all happening but I think because again he's survived like multiple different iterations of the team like he gets a lot of credit

33:49Derrik Klassen: which but I would also say that's an example of like living long enough to see yourself become the villain because like the saints in the loomis peyton era had have had some insane drafts like ridiculously good but if you do it long enough without that success i mean there are plenty of fans that are like please get right out of that chair but then maybe you hit on tyler shuck and everybody changes there too and i guess we'll see what the saints do moving forward but i guess to answer the question more tidally like i i don't i don't have a negative perception of john lynch i I just think it's San Francisco is one of those weird buildings where it's all wrapped together.

34:28Derrik Klassen: And I don't think you can evaluate Lynch without Shanahan and vice versa. All right, Beller, what else you got? All right, we're going to go back to Discord for this one. The Tinker Dog says, Traits first production. I find it very sketchy when a guy on the freaks list turns out to be due to have three career sacks. And hey, freaks list writer Bruce Feldman going to be with us for our draft show on night one. Check us out on YouTube. We'll be there Thursday night, Friday night. Don't miss it. Anyway, back to the question. I'm surprised when guys who kill it in the P4 are afterthoughts because they don't broad jump far enough in shorts.

34:59To which end of the scale do you personally lean? Who are some examples both in the current draft class and in the past that are successful versions on either end of the scale? Who are your Mike Mimoula award winners for being unsuccessful versions on either side? Dave, this one's for you.

35:14Derrik Klassen: love this question because it's just a chance to remember some guys like that's where my brain goes when I do this and so I am a I am a firm believer in in the tape and like if you just watch them if you watch the guy play football and you watch it enough to get a good idea of who he is and you and you see what kind of player he is eight out of ten times that's not going to steer you too wrong like even if you're just aiming for the fairway and trying to make par like it maybe you won't ever win big but you just won't be embarrassingly wrong very often in my opinion now my greatest lesson about this and my greatest failure love him though I do is Bryce Young because I spent the entire lead up to that draft saying what are we doing I don't give a shit if he's 5 '9 like he he was doing this at Alabama he was doing this against guys that are going to be in the league like Alabama and the SEC and and and the Big Ten as well but like those two conferences playing in the college football playoff playing against Georgia every year that's as close to the NFL as it gets until you're in the NFL and so having watched him do that for two years at Bama and just look like a magician out there I knew in my soul that we were overthinking all the stuff about his frame and his arm and whether he was big enough to hold up and all that stuff.

36:38Derrik Klassen: And and here we are with Bryce Young. We don't have to relitigate his entire career. But that was a very important experience for me where I was like, OK, you do have to take some things into account other than just is he a good college player?

36:54Robert Mays: And I think it depends so vastly to me on the position, right? Like quarterback, I think, is one where we've kind of landed where it's like traits and production are kind of a necessity. Like you really do probably need to have both to, to really be that level of a quarterback prospect. I'm glad in the framing of the question, it starts with, I'm sketchy of a guy who's on the freaks list and turns out to have three career sacks. There are, that is the one position where you can take guys who did not produce for shit in college, but can become like really, really good NFL players. Ziggy Ansah had four and a half college career sacks.

37:28Robert Mays: He had like 50 in his first handful of years in the NFL. Like he was a really good player until injuries. He had 44 in his first five seasons and hit 10 plus twice in that span before some injuries kind of started to knock away at him. Trayvon Walker, obviously he goes first overall, but was not a super productive college player, but freaky, freaky athlete with an incredible build. He just got paid a ton of money because he's clearly a good NFL player. daniel hunter was another guy who famously did not produce so your lsu tigers and i'm i'm glad

37:58Derrik Klassen: i'm glad you brought up daniel because he's he isn't he's another in my pantheon of all-time whiffs and i'll never forget uh i was covering the cowboys at the time and a cowboys assistant coach like saw me in the hallway and was like we got to talk about your boy from lsu holy shit this guy is a freak like he's he's gonna be awesome and i was like if you say so he had like four and a half sacks in college like really i okay like i just i did not have this high opinion of daniel hunter even though he was a good player for my school and he's got a shot to be in the hall of fame like every time daniel hunter does something fun which is like every week i'm just like holy shit i was wrong about that guy like traits do matter and the path surfing one is interesting

38:47Robert Mays: too because sometimes it's just kind of like how were they used like that was an lsu team that like did not really let their ends pin their ears back the way that some other defenses will let you do same thing was true of trayvon walker it was a lot of like he's playing four eye he's playing five tech he's a run first player all this stuff and so it's like yeah of course he didn't really develop his chops to be that level of player but the traits were just absolutely off the charts and then to answer the question the other way there are plenty of good especially at edge rusher again where some guys are super productive and just do not have NFL traits Jarvis Jones I think is one of the most famous examples like insanely productive really good player at Georgia in the SEC just did not have like the explosiveness the bend the length to be a high level NFL player and then the other one who was a similar build and actually like insanely productive and was a really fun college player to watch Hauli Kikaha uh played at Washington like 10 years ago man And speaking of Saints drafts, I haven't thought about that name in a while.

39:47Robert Mays: I was looking. I knew he was productive, but I had to look it up. Do you know how many sacks he had in his last two college seasons? It's an obscene number. I couldn't give you the number, but I remember it being a really, really big number. He had 31 and a half sacks in his last two years. He had 19 his senior year. And so that's one of those things that you see that and you're like, that guy has to be good. That's too many sacks to be good. But it was another thing where like he was really technically refined and pretty strong for the college level, but just did not have like NFL level bend and burst.

40:18Robert Mays: And so it just never really came together for him at that level. And so I think there's probably a lot to untangle here, just depending on what positions we're talking about. Like, you know, we've talked about this before, like being a freak athlete at like safety is probably not as necessary because it's such a mental position. Like it can help you obviously, but it's probably not as necessary on the edge, man. Like it's, you kind of, it's a prerequisite to be like that level of a player.

40:45Derrik Klassen: A couple other that come to mind. Like I said, I just, I just dug back through all my triumphs and failures during draft season. I remember people killed the Raiders for drafting Colton Miller. We've talked about this a few times in this draft cycle because of the offensive tackles that are available. very traitsy pick very developmental guy plenty of people had third round grades on him and the Raiders took him 15th he's never been to a pro bowl he's not an all pro tackle but nothing to feel ashamed about drafting that guy 15th like you would probably do that all over again if you were the Raiders and then another one the other way that I remember do you remember how terrified everyone was of Orlando Brown Jr.

41:28Derrik Klassen: as a draft prospect. They were just like, this is the slowest, heaviest footed guy in the world. He's not going to be able to block anybody in the NFL. And he falls all the way to 83. And I think he went to like three straight Pro Bowls in the prime of his career, helped the Chiefs win a Super Bowl. Like maybe a case of people overthinking things a little bit, I would say. 100%.

41:51Robert Mays: And like this does apply. Like there are just so many examples. I'm remembering other ones.

41:55Derrik Klassen: who was um dk metcalf do you remember people freaking out about how dk couldn't bend like he is why nobody runs the three cone anymore like legitimately he is why nobody does that anymore the funny thing about dk is like a lot of those concerns were perfectly valid and he's still just a freaky enough guy that it didn't matter like he had a great career anyway even with those very real

42:16Robert Mays: concerns i think that's my favorite thing about dk metcalf is like everyone was kind of right and And then just the good stuff like shined enough that he ended up being like a pretty good NFL player. The other one I was going to go to on like the bad end of like super productive college player, rugged. You love the tape. Cleland Farrell was awesome at Clemson, but just like not NFL level like superstar traits at that position.

42:40Derrik Klassen: I was doing the draft live with Dane that year and the stunned silence when Cleland Farrell went off the board in the top five. It was it was memorable. It was just like, whoa, like expect the unexpected, but not that unexpected. Yeah, not that high. I mean, C.D. Lamb being the third receiver off the board in his own draft class, still crazy to me. I never understood how that happened. To bring it to the current year, I mean, what a phenomenal year to bear this experiment out. I know we've beat it into the ground at this point, but this is a very much like, do you trust the tape? or do you want to buy in traits, buy in on traits draft class between Reuben Bain, obviously with his very unique body type, Caleb Downs, Mansoor Delane.

43:31Derrik Klassen: Mansoor Delane is not a bad athlete, but like the traits are just not freaky. If you're talking about if you're a corner off the board.

43:38Robert Mays: Yeah, if you're a corner for like freaks go with it. It's like Devin Witherspoon was super athletic. Like Patrick Peterson is what I imagine when like a corner goes like top five. And he's like, he's a great player, but he's not Pat Pete.

43:49Derrik Klassen: but turn, turn on his tape of him blanketing everybody in the sec. And you're like, okay, I can get on board with this. Your guy, Makai Lemon is a fascinating case study here. And to go back to your point about edge rushers who don't produce in college, I'm not willing to plant my flag that he is going to become a great player, but having lived the Daniel Hunter experience, I refuse to like, not, I refuse to shut the door on Keldrick Falk. I feel like so many people are, are down on him. And I'm just like, I don't know, man, guys who weigh 280 don't typically move like that. And I'd be pretty intrigued to see what he could look like with some NFL coaching.

44:27Derrik Klassen: That's just me.

44:28Robert Mays: And he's only like 20 years old. It's just like guys who are like built like that at that age who are that athletic. It's just like they don't make a whole lot of those. And that is a position where you can be pretty willing to take that swing. Because another thing that I would say about that, too, is specifically on the edge, the guys who are that big, that level of athlete, that explosive. I remember writing this about Bud Dupree, actually, when he came out of college. He was like too thick and explosive to be bad. Is he going to be like an all pro? Is he going to be great? I don't know. You know, there were some concerns with him in terms of pass rush moves and bend and all that stuff, but he was just too big and explosive to be bad.

45:05Robert Mays: And that's kind of how his career turned out. Like he ended up having, he turned into like a solid NFL career. He's not like a game changing player, but like he was a good number two for a while, still a decent rotational player. Like, I think that's kind of the gambit you have to take, whereas with some of these other guys who are you're betting on the film, but are outliers in other ways. Sometimes those guys can just be like out of the league level bad because they're just not up to it athletically.

45:29Derrik Klassen: And that's ultimately why I come down in the cowardly world where I'm like, I'd way rather just make safe bets with guys that definitely look good in college. And I can definitely picture them in the NFL. It's like Robert's whole thing with what I'm looking for on tape is, is he a good player? Which, like, you're going to miss on some guys with that approach, but you'll probably be fine in the long run. And if that's cowardly, I can live with it. All right, Beller, what's our next one? Okay, this next one. I love this one for, like, not only the question itself, but for everything. It makes me feel it's from someone named Dirkalus, who this was an AMA, Derek, right?

46:10With you on Discord?

46:10Robert Mays: they sent this to me in my ama i did like a week or so ago and i was like that's good i would like to talk through this with somebody actually so right there like dirkulis shout out for being in the ama with derrick derrick doing your job great by bringing this to the whole group we're doing all that i'm also 41 years old and a huge dirk nowitzki fan and so in my friends group text every time one of us turns has a birthday we're in our age 41 year i send just a photo of dirk with his 41 jersey and then Dirkalus is Dirk and from Germany so here we go here's the question do you think the quote bad draft class this year is more of an advantage for good teams or bad teams Derek what do you think I think if like I have to pick one it's probably for the good teams and the reason I would say that is like if you are one of the bad teams who are in the top 10 you are thinking like okay season just went terribly we got five or six wins but hey jamar chase is going to be there at fifth overall like we're in a good spot here and there's just like there are some good players to be had in the top 10 this year it does not feel like there are that many like bonafide that guy is an absolute superstar that guy's a freak of nature that sort of thing and so these teams that are drafting you know fourth fifth sixth overall they might still look at good players, guys who can be pro bowlers, are they as, you know, locked into getting guys who can be potential all pros?

47:35Robert Mays: I don't think so. Whereas on the flip side, I think in most classes, like the talent that you're getting from 15 to 50 is, is more or less the same in a lot of years. You have some classes that are a little bit deeper and go into maybe the twenties of guys who are like potential all pros. But I think in general, you're getting a lot of classes where 15 to 50 is is is like kind of the same and so the fact that like the good teams are not really hurt by the way that the class is shaped but the bad teams are clearly hurt in the sense that they might not get a all pro cornerstone player i think that's kind of why i landed where i landed

48:10Derrik Klassen: the range of first round grades from the average nfl team like every spring when i talk to people and get a gauge for how they feel about the class. 16 is usually a number you hear, and I would say between 16 and 20 true first-round grades. Like 32 players are going to be picked in the first round, but that's not how the NFL sees it. Like the NFL is typically willing to give 16 to 20 first-round grades out. Maybe if it's a sick year, you'll have 22. That's like a best-case scenario. And this year, the people I've talked to, it's somewhere between like 12 and 14. And so I think that's the big difference.

48:52Derrik Klassen: It's just not loaded at the top. And so, yeah, I think it has to benefit the better teams if you're just not missing out on like that high of a caliber of draft prospect. And if the draft, if the grades all start to look the same after like the first 10 or 11 players off the board, then that's a very fun place to be if you're picking at the back end of the round. So, yeah, I would agree. All right. We're going to take one more break and answer a few more questions right after that.

49:35Robert Mays: and seconds. Import your brand and create full campaigns with simple prompts. Send personalized messages backed by real-time feedback, smart segmentation, and effortless reporting that tracks every win. Let's redefine what's possible together. Get started for free at ActiveCampaign.com.

49:55Derrik Klassen: Fill her home with beauty this Mother's Day. Take 20 % off a Pura Smart Home Fragrance Diffuser for a limited time. The perfect gift for every kind of mom or mother figure. Shop now at pura.com. Support for this podcast is brought to you

50:11Robert Mays: by Walden University. Ever catch yourself thinking, what if I could go after what I actually want and really make a difference? You're not alone. And that's exactly why I want to tell you about Walden University. For over 50 years, Walden has helped working adults like you get the W with the knowledge and skills to build the future you want and make a difference where it matters most. If you've been waiting for the right moment, this is it. Head to waldenu.edu and take the first step.

50:38Derrik Klassen: Walden University, set a course for change. Certified to operate by Shev.

50:48Okay, we come back from break with a question from Brett Maynard. Brett says, listening to you go through the mock draft shows, by which he means on the clock, last episode coming tomorrow, picks 26 through 32. He says, the pick Lance Zerline made for Detroit spurred a question I've had for some time. No, I'm not here to complain about you guys selecting my most dreaded choice for the Lions and Caden Proctor. But when you were talking about the idea of players moving to guard instead of playing tackle, you cited recent examples of J.C. Latham and Evan Neal, two similarly freaky Bama O-linemen who have been, shall we say, disappointing as high picks.

51:23Stack that on top of other tied OTs that have been drafted highly and haven't worked out. Jendrick Wills, Jonah Williams, Alex Leatherwood, dj fluker my question is how much does scouts or teams look at a trend like that and factor it into their process does it matter or do scouts just put aside that stuff unless there is some clear specific scheme challenge looking at you tennessee wide receivers that would hurt a player's projection to the nfl obviously bama has gone through a recent coaching change so there isn't a clear through line with prospects to the past but i'm still curious about how scouts work to separate the data and if they pursue other angles to understand maybe why this could be a trend dave What do you got on this one?

51:57Derrik Klassen: I really love this question because it made me think something completely new by the time I was done considering it. Because you see the initial premise of the question, and it's very easy to say, you can't helmet scout. That's lazy. And failures of past players are not an indicator of what's going to happen with a new guy just because Caden Proctor went to Alabama. But then you look at it and you're like, holy shit, through the entirety of this run that Alabama's been on, they really have not produced a top tier first round offensive tackle. Like I'm old enough to remember Andre Smith going all the way back to like when the Bama dynasty was just getting started.

52:42Derrik Klassen: and you get like, look, obviously not every Bama player drafted highly is going to pan out, but you can look across the gamut and find a pro bowl, all pro caliber guy at pretty much every other position, but it has been a problem at offensive tackle. And that kind of makes me curious where I'm like, okay, past results are not necessarily a future indicator, but why has this not really worked for anyone that's come out of Alabama. So I, I called and was talking to somebody about it. And I don't think there's a, I don't think there's a definitive answer to this question, but the, the, the Jesus, sorry.

53:21Derrik Klassen: What's his name? Oh yeah. Sorry. Three, two. I don't think there's a definitive answer to this, but Brett mentioned problems with scheme at places like Tennessee and the way we perceive their receivers. I don't think it's a scheme problem at Alabama. I do know, and from talking to people, Alabama does have a reputation going back years under Nick Saban. Those guys get coached and practice very, very hard. Like it is a physical, grueling, demanding place to play football, or at least it was under Nick Saban, which I'm not here to argue with the results, obviously they were incredible, but that is something that NFL evaluators have long been cognizant of is like, hey, a guy coming out of Alabama might have a few more miles on his odometer than somebody coming out of another program.

54:14Derrik Klassen: Is that why it hasn't worked out for tackles specifically? I don't know, but I do think at a certain point, these are things that evaluators are at least cognizant of. But on the flip side of that, I would also say Alabama recruits at a level where these guys are going to be athletic enough and traitsy enough that you want to take the chance anyway. So that's not really a definitive answer, but I think you have to consider all of that when you're looking at these guys.

54:41Robert Mays: I think that's a huge part of it is like the good schools that can recruit the good players will have more guys and they're just you're probably going to end up with more busts. And there are some examples on the flip side of like where they clearly develop it really, really well, like Alabama with safeties. If they had a guy who was going to be a top 50 safety under Nick Saban I wanted him every time and like almost all those guys were good Ohio State receivers have a very high hit rate those guys tend to be good but in a lot of cases like these schools that are just pumping out a million players you're just going to naturally have a lot of misses I think part of it too like what you were mentioning specifically with Saban era offensive linemen it was a lot of guys who were getting beat up with the way that they they played and the way that like they ran the ball a ton for a lot of those stages and so I think that that was especially earlier on, like until Derrick Henry was probably gone, I think was probably the last of that.

55:30Robert Mays: But also a lot of these guys who were misses were just like massive people. And sometimes those guys can be prone to just like they get banged up a little bit and things just don't, you can't calibrate for how the movement is going to go in the NFL. Like Evan Neal is that way. I think JC Latham is like, he's going to be fine, but maybe not, you know, hits his ceiling the way that people wanted. But like, I don't want to, I don't want to

55:51Derrik Klassen: with evan neil was me no like jc latham is not a bust he's yeah he's definitely not a bust he just maybe won't like he won't maybe won't be an all pro caliber player exactly and then like fluker

56:04Robert Mays: i think was in that bunch alex leatherwood is also an interesting one because i think a lot of people knew that he was overdrafted and overrated much like cleeland farrell that i think that was the

56:13Derrik Klassen: same draft it was yes like cleeland farrell and alex leatherwood both i was sitting next to dane when it happened and we were just blown away we were like uh i think this guy's a good player but what what's happening like that was a that was a theme for the raiders that year yeah a hundred

56:28Robert Mays: percent so like i just to me it mostly boils down to like this is a school that was able to consistently recruit that level of athlete and i think maybe what you could say is that these guys are getting bumped up a half of a round a round later than they should because they played for the schools they played for and because they you know were consistently in high leverage games and stuff like that like does Jonah Williams go in the first round if he plays for like Syracuse or something maybe not but like he would still clearly would have been a guy who was going to be on the NFL's radar and so I don't think it has that much to do with Alabama you know what I

57:03Derrik Klassen: mean do I still think it's interesting like I said of course Alabama's produced 10 million amazing football players some of them are not going to pan out the way you would prefer But I really think I could go position by position and identify like an all pro caliber player at every other spot except offensive tackle, which is I don't I don't know what that means, but I do think it's interesting.

57:31Robert Mays: It is now I'm trying to think of like who is even the best one of this of this bunch of all the Alabama offensive tackles who have been drafted. like I don't like I mean Latham is fine I guess but like I don't know who it would be and because too it's not just it's not just offensive line like they produce some decent interior players which I think is why this is interesting Landon Dickerson Ryan Kelly

57:54Derrik Klassen: Tyler Booker's young but he looks very promising like it's it's strange and and granted it's not a huge sample size they haven't had that many offensive tackles go in the first round but But I just like their hit rate everywhere else is pretty damn good. And this is a little bit of a, you know, it's an outlier, I guess. And like I said, I do think teams keep stuff like this in mind. But at the end of the day, also, I mean, Caden Proctor is a great example. And you can come up with several reasons why you might be worried about drafting him. But guys that big who move that way will get drafted after a certain point.

58:33Derrik Klassen: Like teams will just take the risk and say, yeah, but if we can get our hands on him, holy hell, what a player he could be. And so, yeah, like, I mean, teams will take chances on guys like that.

58:44Robert Mays: I think I have the answer, by the way, barring however J.C. Latham's career turns out. It's probably Cam Robinson. Yeah. Right. It's probably the best one. And even he has been a guy who has like become like a swing tackle. Hey, man, after this year, we're going to be saying Jedrick Wills. Oh, God. Oh, come on. He's a bear now, right? He is. He is.

59:03Derrik Klassen: in Ben we trust all right Beller what's the next one yes indeed in Ben we trust and in Conrad we also trust to ask a good question Conrad Johansson also TD from Houston um his name and discord is Conrad he signed it as TD so Conrad TD I just want to make sure you got your full credit we'll give you both names and here's the question my question is about the ongoing distance between the NFL game and the college football game and how that relates to the NFL draft. I feel like it's been a long time since I've heard this is a loaded draft. It seems like every year, more and more, we hear this is a weak draft, or it's a bad year to have a top pick, or picks 15 to 50 are basically the same.

59:42Derek said that like 22 minutes ago or something like that, responding to another question. Could these sentiments be related to how differently players are asked to operate in college versus the NFL, making those positions harder to evaluate? I've heard the pod talk about how inside linebacker play and quarterback development are egregiously different between college and the pros but could that same concept be leading to an overall challenge of evaluation that makes us think every draft now is a weak one

1:00:07Robert Mays: Derek what do you say here I think there probably is a little bit of that that like the college game being so divorced kind of from the NFL especially in terms of some of the RPOs you're getting more like three down structures without edge players uh in in the college game you're getting a lot more like three safety structure in the college game um just the way that the hashes work I think You get less film that feels like it's NFL stuff. So you're having to do a little bit more projecting. And so you can look at the traits of a guy and be like, that's clearly an NFL player. But maybe we're getting less NFL like reps than we were like 20 years ago and stuff.

1:00:41Robert Mays: But I will say this. I think very recently we had a draft class that was loaded. 2024 was loaded at the top. Obviously, you have all the quarterbacks, right? Like Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May. people thought Marvin Harrison was a star at wide receiver Joe Ault same thing at tackle Malik Neighbors was in that class like JC Latham I think people were excited about because you just don't get athletes like that at that position Roma Dunze people loved like Brock Bowers was in that class and so I know that class was kind of weird defensively and didn't necessarily have like many too many superstars on defense but like that to me did feel like a class where people were not saying uh it sucks to have a top 10 pick in this year's class like that was a class where I think people were like, if you got one, you're probably going to get a pretty good guy.

1:01:28Derrik Klassen: I lovingly and respectfully just don't really agree with the premise of the question. And I'm like, you just, you made the point for me just there. 2024 was a huge draft. I mean, six quarterbacks wound up going in the top 12. And while that might've been a surprise, just having three real deal quarterbacks, I mean, Caleb and Drake were identified multiple years ahead of time as like, whoa, you got to watch this guy. And then Jaden was the Heisman Trophy winner. Eight offensive tackles went in the first round of that draft. And yeah, we had to wait a little while for Latu and Vers to go off the board.

1:02:06Derrik Klassen: But people were very excited about those players. People were very excited about Quinion Mitchell. Like that was not a rags to riches story. Everybody loved him. Byron Murphy was there. Like people loved Byron Murphy. Then you had, you know, the combine record holder for the 40 and Xavier Worthy at the back of the round. 2024 was loaded. And then I would say as recently as 2021, that was obviously a year where, again, Trevor was the prince who was promised. I mean, we were talking about Trevor two years ahead of time. You had three other quarterbacks. The COVID guys, everybody knew the COVID guys were all going to be amazing, like Chase, Panay Sewell, Rashawn Slater.

1:02:46Derrik Klassen: I don't think like nobody knew Micah Parsons was going to be the best pass or the best young pass rusher in the NFL. But people were still excited about him because like Parsons is a good one, though, because like a player as talented as he is goes like fifth overall in this in this class.

1:03:03Robert Mays: You know what I mean? But that class was so loaded that a player like him falls a little bit.

1:03:07Derrik Klassen: I mean, the the Pat Sertan JC Horn debate that year was nuts. Like people were, you know, cutting off family members over their opinion on JC Horn or Pat Sertan. Like that was that was a loaded draft. So I I've made this point a few times and I worry that I start to sound like a grumpy old man. But the draft is starting to remind me of SNL in the sense where no matter what, people are like, ah, SNL is not funny anymore. It used to be funny. And then it's like, no, it's always been this show. It's just it's hard to make this show every week. And over time, you only remember the good stuff. And so the shit from 15 years ago is amazing by comparison to now.

1:03:51Derrik Klassen: I'm old enough to remember people did not like SNL when Kristen Wiig and Bill Hader and Jason Sudeikis were on it. And now it's been 20 years and people were like, it'll never be that good again. Like, no, you just only remember the good stuff after a certain period of time. I don't think this is going to wind up being the most star studded draft ever, but I just think the draft is very popular. People pay attention to it for a longer period of time than they ever have before. Like it's if you follow football on any serious level, you know who the prospects are so far in advance. And so I just think that's a hard standard to live up to.

1:04:30Derrik Klassen: And yeah, I'd say 2025 and 2026 are a little on the leaner side, but I don't think it's a problem. I think we're only two years removed from a very, very good draft.

1:04:42Robert Mays: so I think that's actually a great way to frame it too is that over the last maybe pushing up on a decade like the NFL draft has just become something that everybody adjacent to the sport is into everybody is doing it as an analyst like it's more scrutinized we talk about the class more we talk about it for longer we go deeper on these guys and in the way that like I was just kind of rolling back through a couple of these draft classes like I was trying to look for bad ones that had happened outside of a decade obviously 2013 is the famous one but I'm just going to pull up a decent player from that class starlet tolele he went 14th overall was a really he was like a pretty good nfl player but like back then draft coverage was not as we just weren't as into it so i don't feel like a player like that would have been like as scrutinized we weren't thinking about like what level of quality is that type of player whereas like whoever you're thinking is going 14th overall this year like everybody and their mother has thought about this guy they've probably gone and watched this guy they've heard 100 pods about this guy whereas Like, I just think draft coverage probably 15, 20 years ago was not as fleshed out, like you said.

1:05:43Robert Mays: And so now we're just more critical anytime we don't get a 2021 draft class. I don't think draft coverage was this fleshed out 10 years ago. Yeah, probably not.

1:05:53Derrik Klassen: Building the Beast, a regular podcast talking about the draft in October, I think is a relatively new phenomenon. And I love it for the record. I think it kicks ass, but I think it it creates a level of anticipation that can be hard to live up to. And that's why I don't even want to talk about 2027, because on paper, it looks absolutely loaded. But by November, I'm not going to be surprised if somebody somewhere is like, oh, nobody's really living up to the hype. It's not going to be a good draft. I'm like, yeah, I think we're losing the plot a little bit. hey before we get to this last question i'll just say right there monday april 27th we'll all be exhale drafts over taking a breather dane brugler is going to have a top 100 for 2027 on that oh you're getting out of here he is no so i'm already so excited i'm i'm i'm taking notes for our summer episodes about like who we need to be on the lookout for one of one okay dane's dane's probably got half a beast worth of notes for you already so i can't wait i can't wait for that either last question mateo espagna he wants to talk about centers which we started this question we started this mailbag with a question robert was probably happy to miss on the special teamers let's end it with one he's probably a little bit sad to miss talking about his beloved center position mateo wants to know why has there been a shortage of centers recently with only jared wilson last year no consensus top guy in this year's draft i'm wondering if this is a trend we're going to see continue or just bad luck?

1:07:18And then also, why did so many teams need a center this offseason? Dave, take us home here.

1:07:23Derrik Klassen: I love that center is becoming a bit of a pet cause among our listenership. Like, we've gotten a lot of feedback about centers this offseason, and I think it's awesome. I think to answer the second question first, I think you're noticing teams needing centers because you've had several high-profile changes at once. I mean, two guys retired. Ryan Kelly was a little less surprising than Drew Dahlman, but like two known commodities at center to like two guys that just signed nice contracts retired within a few weeks of each other. And then obviously the Ravens lose Tyler Linderbaum. So I just think and Ragnar the year before for the Lions.

1:08:05Derrik Klassen: Yeah. Ragnar as well. Like that's that's just more turnover among the better players at the position than I think you would typically see in a year. So I think that's part of it. I really love thinking about this, though, because it is interesting. Jared Wilson went 95th overall last year. He was the first center off the board. And again, this year, if you look at, like, the pure center prospects, and it's a little dicey because, like, for example, Keelan Rutledge, who so many people love out of Georgia Tech, he's a guard center guy. So I don't know where he's going to play in the NFL. But even still, best case scenario, he's like a surprise back into the first round guy.

1:08:47Derrik Klassen: More realistically, maybe he's a top 50, top 60 pick. But then after that, among like true centers, you're probably talking about waiting into the like 70s, 80s, 90s for most of these guys to go. I don't I don't worry that it's a trend. So I went back and looked at this. A, the ceiling for drafting a center highly is just not very high. Like there have been 14 first round picks at center dating all the way back to the start of the century. Like over the last like 25 years, like going back to like 2000, 2002, you've had 14 centers drafted in the first round. And all of those guys were back into the first round.

1:09:32Derrik Klassen: Most of them were in the 20s. Like I think 10 of the 14 were drafted in the 20s. So it's just not a position with a very high ceiling anyway. but over the course of the last decade, 31 pure centers have been drafted in the top 100, and the average draft slot for all of those guys is around 61. So I do agree with the question in the sense that, like, we're not seeing that sweet spot day two center over the last couple years. Like, a perfect example is my guy Zach Frazier, who was drafted 51st overall, ready-made starter, plug-and-play guy where you draft him right away, and you're like, I feel awesome about this.

1:10:11Derrik Klassen: It doesn't feel like that guy has been there for the last two years. I don't know that I'm willing to call it a trend yet, though.

1:10:18Robert Mays: I think that's kind of where I'm at. Like, center was already a, to get one in the first round was kind of an every other year proposition anyway. Exactly. And so it was usually more what you're talking about, where, like, mid-second round, high third round is where you would get a lot of your centers. And I think, talking about it this year, like that makes this year not that much of an outlier like if we count Rutledge he might be in that but like uh Jones the Iowa center like he might be in that range if somebody really needs it Jake Slaughter out of Florida like might be in that range like high third round if somebody really needs it like it does not feel like it's that far out of out of the range I think there's just a chance that we're getting like two kind of rough-ish years um in a row because again going back to 2024 Jackson Powers Johnson was drafted to be a center obviously he ended up being a guard but like in theory he could have done it and then Zach Frazier like you mentioned goes 51st overall to the Steelers the year before that Joe Tipman goes 43rd overall to the Jets and then the Giants draft John Michael Schmitz at 57th like that kind of just is the range for centers typically and that makes this year not really feel that far out of the range for it I think we're just kind of because what we were talking about the second part of the question because so many teams needed centers with all the retirements, you know, Ragnall a couple of years ago, the two guys this year.

1:11:38Robert Mays: And then I think it was also that the retirements on top of just a lot of the good ones were free agents this year. Like their deals just happened to be up at the same time. And I think that that is kind of just like a weird confluence of factors.

1:11:51Derrik Klassen: I got a sick sense of satisfaction out of how mathematical this felt when I looked into it. I already mentioned this, But again, OK, so 14 first rounders over the last 25 years, 10 were drafted 20 or later. And then the four who were drafted in the teens, Marquise Pouncey, Ryan Kelly, Cam Irving and Garrett Bradbury. And all four of those guys were drafted 18th or 19th. Like teams have a very specific parameter for where they're willing to do this position. And it starts at like 18, 19 at the in the very best scenario and goes through like the end of the first round. If you're drafting like that type of guy.

1:12:34Derrik Klassen: And then again, I think you see teams try to address this somewhere between 50 and 80 most of the time.

1:12:42Robert Mays: Right. And again, we've talked about this before. It's not that centers don't matter. It's the it's the combination of one. It's a really mentally taxing position. So you just don't know how guys are going to handle that from college to the pros. And then also, too, it's a little bit of like, hey, man, if you were a star athlete, you'd probably be paying tackle. You know, it's just a little bit of like the body types are just a little bit different. And they're not as they're not as empowering and as imposing as a, you know, a Penne Sewell or Tristan Wurst is going to be. It's just a different body type.

1:13:11Derrik Klassen: One thing that I'm that I'm looking forward to seeing how it bears out during this draft is and you see it if you look at Dane's rankings. like the centers are all pretty grouped together. I mean, you mentioned, you mentioned Logan Jones, you got Jake Slaughter, you got Sam Hecht at a Kansas state. Connor lose obviously coming out off of an injury, but a guy that people thought very highly of heading into last season. Trey Zune is moving from left tackle to center. I feel like all of these guys are grouped somewhere between like 85 and 110. and so it seems like there's going to be a run on centers and do teams try to start that earlier like does one of these guys get drafted in the 60s because a team feels that good about them and they're like hey we we got to do this before the run starts or does the position stretch a little bit and teams think that they can wait a little because there are six guys similarly graded kind of stacked on top of each other it sounds really really nerdy to say but i'm eagerly anticipating the center run and where it starts that actually is interesting like is it going to

1:14:20Robert Mays: be you know somebody takes one at 54 and the other teams in the nfl are like oh shit we got to start the run like and they just all start rattling off at like 67 72 like you know what i mean or is it just one team takes one and everyone else is like uh we'll get ours in the fourth round it's fine There's enough of them. I don't know.

1:14:37Derrik Klassen: My favorite thing that I learned looking back at this was in 2021, Creed Humphrey was the end of a center run because Josh Myers went a pick ahead of him. And Kansas City was like, oh, shit. All right. We got to get our guy. He might not last much longer. And he's like the best center in football. I love the draft, man. All right. I think that does it for this week's mailbag. Loved these questions, y 'all. Please keep them coming. We'll be answering them all off season long. Although next week we won't have to because we will be in the middle of live draft coverage starting Thursday. Myself, Derek, Robert Mays will be back with us.

1:15:18Derrik Klassen: We got the legendary Bruce Feldman and, of course, Dane Brugler, the star of the show. Cannot wait. We're going Thursday. We're going Friday. And I recently discovered we will be going live on Saturday as well. Right, Beller? Live on Saturday. That is not for the draft. We'll probably flip the mics on roughly started the seventh round and then do a live stream. Typical length episode from there. But Thursday night, 730 Eastern time, Friday night, 630 Eastern time. That is half an hour before the draft begins those two nights all the way through the final pick. And we'll even stay with you and wrap things up for about 45 minutes, an hour after those last picks are made those two days.

1:15:59So we are ready for a big week on the athletic football show.

1:16:03Derrik Klassen: I'm not exaggerating. I'm not kidding. It is my favorite weekend of the football calendar. I cannot wait to talk prospects and talk ball with all of y 'all. And I can't wait for y 'all to tune in until next time. That's all we got. We appreciate it. And we'll talk to you real soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button.

1:16:20Robert Mays: So you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating. We'll see you next time. business is booming but you know what really helped zero the accounting platform for small businesses i used to think spreadsheets were just part of it but real-time cash flow wow invoices that chase themselves even better books that automate that's a big one and i can keep track from my phone while i get the job done no spreadsheet in sight what a life do right by

1:16:53Derrik Klassen: yourself and your business and search Xero for your free trial. Conditions apply. Fill her home with beauty this Mother's Day. Make gifting easy with 20 % off Pura Smart Home Fragrance Diffusers for a limited time. The perfect gift for mom, grandma, your favorite aunt, and every mother figure in your life. Create a space she'll love coming home to every day. Plus, take 20 % off curated sets.

1:17:20Robert Mays: Shop now at Pura.com.

1:17:22Derrik Klassen: security program on spreadsheets new regulations piling up

1:17:26Robert Mays: and audit dread it's time for Vanta Vanta automates security and compliance brings evidence into one place and cuts audit prep by 82 % less manual work clearer visibility faster deals zero chaos call it compliance or call it compliance get it? join the 15 ,000 companies using Vanta to prove trust go to Vanta.com slash com Thank you.