Are coaches more valuable than non-QB players in today's NFL?

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1:38Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's another Mailbag Monday coming your guys' way. Really enjoyed this collection of questions. We only hit a few of them because there were a lot of meaty ones that we spent a decent amount of time on, but that's a perfect scenario for me. It's exactly what I want. So only hit like four or five of them, but because they were so good, it was more than worth it. As always, sincerely appreciate everyone who spent the time to send these in. Let's get to it with me, Dave, Derek, and our producer, Katie, right now.

2:18Robert Mays: It's another Mailbag Monday here on the Athletic Football Show. we are deep and now it's like the middle of may we're deep into the off season and the questions reflect that in a way that i appreciate have a lot of good ones that we want to get to today yet again our producer katie is stepping in for michael beller katie let's go here let's let it

2:38Dave Helman: rip what's the first one first one is nat on discord this came up a little bit in the conversation about the buccaneers but i'd love if the show could address it head on what is baker mayfield What would it take for him to go to the Super Bowl? What are the best, worst, and most likely paths for him over the next approximately five years? Dave, this feels like a perfect question for you.

3:00Derrik Klassen: I disagree. I had a feeling it would start with me as the Baker guy. Okay, let's get this out of the way first. This question made me realize that we're having a conversation, we're about to have a conversation about the Mendoza line of franchise quarterbacks. And we now have a quarterback named Mendoza in the NFL. And I think that's amazing. But that's, I think that's ultimately how I see Baker Mayfield. I think he is, he is like the, the bar for whether or not you have a franchise quarterback, not like the minimum, you know, like I think Baker Mayfield is, he's somewhere in that range of like he's he's capable of playing like a top 10 guy in spurts he's capable of looking like a much more middle of the pack guy depending on his health depending on the supporting cast depending on how well his decision making is playing out for him um and i i think you can build a contender around baker mayfield i think it's going to be harder to do than it would be for a lot of other quarterbacks but and robert and i talked about this on a show within the last week or so, I guess week or two, where I think the Bucs' best path over the next three years is probably just to roll with Baker.

4:21Derrik Klassen: I'm just not convinced they have a shot at upgrading from him in a realistic manner, i.e. the draft or, you know, a buy low contract because they already did that. His name's Baker Mayfield. And so across his three years in Tampa, I wanted to look this up. He's 14th in the league in adjusted EPA per play. he's ninth in the league in total pass EPA he's 17th in success rate he's 13th in passer rating he's top five in rush EPA added among quarterbacks so it's not all great um it's middling and I think as we've seen he can reach some really really high ceilings we haven't seen it sustainable across an entire season I think with the right supporting cast aka a really really strong supporting cast baker mayfield could be that guy and uh the last thing i would say before i turn it over to what y 'all think i just want to note the 2020 through 2022 buccaneers the brady buccaneers who won a super bowl and were contenders for at least one other they were seventh in epa per play and seventh in success rate defensively over the course of brady's time in tampa in the three years that Baker's been there, they've been 19th in EPA per play and 21st in success rate.

5:40Derrik Klassen: Like they just haven't been a very balanced team. They haven't been a very good defense across Baker's time in Tampa. And so I think if you were able to build a team around him that could achieve similar results on offense while being much, much better on defense, I absolutely think it's possible. I think it's, it's a tougher needle to thread and he's a smaller guy. injuries at this point have been a consistent problem for him. I think you got to have your eyes wide open about that, but I think he's a franchise quarterback for at least the next three to five years, I guess.

6:17Dave Helman: I think the what would it take part in the question is interesting because I think the answer is 2024. That team was good enough for them to have done it. And obviously the defense was more like...

6:28Robert Mays: The offense certainly was.

6:29Dave Helman: Right. The offense was, I mean, they had a top like three offensive line. They had pass catchers galore. Bucky Irving was playing really well as a rookie. Liam Cohen was calling a fantastic offense. Like that was all the factors they needed on that side of the ball. And today's point, the defense was not nearly as good as it was during the Brady runs, but it was acceptable and it was certainly better than it was in 2025. Obviously in 2025, that defense sunk them. In 2024, it was good enough that like if Baker had gotten hot, they could have won a few shootouts like 31 to 28 or 27, whatever it would have been.

7:00Dave Helman: And so I think to me, like that is the caliber of team it takes for Baker Mayfield. Obviously, they just didn't get it done that year. They ran into like a red hot, weird Washington team and kind of ended up losing that game. But that to me is is what it looks like. And then I think the second part of the question where it's best, worst, most likely outcome. The best is that he just sustains like somewhere close to 20, like in between 2023 and 2024, for that level of quarterback production where he's like the 11th, 12th best guy production wise. Maybe you don't think he's actually that good, but he can at least produce up to that quality.

7:34Dave Helman: The worst outcome is like a Russell Wilson situation where if the mobility goes, I think Baker Mayfield kind of goes. I think he's a more prolific passer than Russ is. He's a little bit more willing to make certain throws. But I think because Baker has actually become one of the most effective scramblers in the league, I think if that element of his game goes, the gunslinging is just going to turn into picks on picks on picks. And so that to me is like the worst outcome.

8:00Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I think I want to amend five years feels like a long time. Five years is a really long time. He'd be 36. Yeah, I would say two to three years, I think you can build something meaningful around Baker Mayfield.

8:14Robert Mays: That's exactly the timeline that I had in mind. And so there's a couple different, there are literally three different questions here from Nat. What is Baker Mayfield? I'm with Dave in that I think that Baker Mayfield is now the best representation of the, whatever you want to call it, Dalton line, car continuum, the version of Kirk Cousins that we have now, like that he is there. And so what is that type of player? I think that type of quarterback is right on the line of, is he good enough or do you want to replace him? And I think the other thing is that player definitively and directly rises and falls based on the quality of what is around him.

8:52Robert Mays: And I think that is what Baker Mayfield is. the question that I think is really interesting associated with that sort of player is that sort of player is fine. You have to pay that sort of player the correct amount for the rest of the roster to be able to come together. So Carr and Andy Dalton, to me, are really interesting examples of this. If you go back like over the last 10 years, Andy Dalton was always paid as a third tier quarterback. He was always paid as a middle-class quarterback for the entirety of his time as a starter. So he was making$16 million a year on his six-year rookie extension after that rookie contract.

9:32Robert Mays: He never got paid more than that as a starting quarterback. Derek Carr did. Derek Carr was making$40-ish million a year. Even when Derek Carr got paid by the Saints, he was getting paid, like, even if it was just outside of the top 10, it was still grouped up with the players that were seven through 10. What happens on Baker's next contract, I think is a really interesting question. If Baker slots in where he is right now, which is right with Sam Darnold as the lowest paid starting quarterbacks in the NFL, then I think you can live with that sort of investment for what you're getting from a player like Baker Mayfield.

10:10Robert Mays: If Baker comes in and he's like, Daniel Jones is at 44 now, I'm better than Daniel Jones. I want 50 that starts to become the way that Derek Carr was paid during stretches of his career and I think it's harder to live with that sort of player so I think that to me is why the Baker contract question is worthwhile because where he how he's compensated based on where he falls we have recent examples of this and how that kind of quarterback contract can hamstring you the Vikings and Kirk Cousins is another good example like when everything's going great you see the version of it where you can can get over the top but it's almost dangerous to talk yourself into that version of it because so many things need to come together if you're paying that guy on the high end of what he's worth for like the totality of the team to make sense i would just say and it what makes it interesting is

11:04Derrik Klassen: 50 is qb 11 in the current landscape in terms of aav i mean i wouldn't be doing it that way though

11:10Robert Mays: i wouldn't it wouldn't be where he was ranked it would be like the gap between the field and those quarterbacks. I think there should be a gap between the field and Baker Mayfield. If he's compensated correctly, the way there is right now, how like if,

11:24Derrik Klassen: so if he was making Daniel Jones, a salary, you're, you're out on that. Like if it was 44 million and the 40, let's even just say 46 for inflation or whatever, $46 million a year. And the cap is, it's going to jump into like the three twenties, probably barring some sort of catastrophe next year.

11:45Robert Mays: So I would I would think about it because I think the only reason that's 14 percent of your cap.

11:52Dave Helman: I think with him specifically, it's not just the quality of player. It's that he's a little bit he's already over 30 and he's a player again where I think once the mobility goes at that age, it could go next year. Like if something happens, it probably won't because he was really, really good this year. But you know what I'm saying? Whereas like I think if this exact quality of player was 26 years old, I'd be like, yeah, that's fine. Like you do that every time.

12:15Robert Mays: the daniel jones part of it i we talked about this i think over paying for a guy like that is easier to do when you're in a spot where the colts are where it's just like we got no choice like we are this is a one-year thing where we're trying to do everything we can to squeeze what we can out of this entire situation i just don't think that's what's going to happen with the bucks like if i my gut feeling is and we could talk about what's best worst and most likely my gut feeling with the bucks is this is probably the last year for this staff for this coaching staff. And if that's the case and you are turning the pages and organization next year, you have a choice about whether you want Baker Mayfield at$47 million to be the starting point of the next version of your organization.

12:57Robert Mays: If this was a situation where it's like, we're putting all of our chips in, that's a one-year thing. We have to see what we can get out of this version of the offense. Then you do it. That's just not where the Bucs are. They're in a very different situation and I think they're going to be than where the Colts are with Daniel Jones right now. And I think that changes the way that you can and should think about it personally my I mean my opinion

13:20Derrik Klassen: on Baker hinges pretty heavily on what he's making that's for sure I I think I can incur I've got some tolerance for risk with how much you pay him but yeah like the closer you get toward into the 50s and I mean I wouldn't want to go a whole lot higher than that preferably I wouldn't even want to hit 50 I'm curious to see how that goes because that was our whole conversation a couple weeks ago Robert is I'm it's hard to buy the vision for what the Bucks are doing in 2026 and I mean if if that's because they'd rather keep their options open okay but if if you have an inkling that you can go somewhere with Baker Mayfield I'd rather just get it out of the way now but yeah I mean if they don't feel that way fine these quarterbacks can go either way like if you

14:09Robert Mays: wanted to give me a full-throated argument as to why baker mayfield is still better than a lot of the alternatives even at a higher price tag i've heard those arguments for all of these types of guys in the past and i get them like i i've joked like winning in the nfl was winning with ryan tannahill making 30 million dollars like i still believe that and so like there are still viable paths with that sort but you can make a choice like it's also worth acknowledging the ways that that sort of quarterback potentially hamstrings you and i think that's an important thing to do if you're in a position like the Bucs might be where you have a choice, where there is like a fork in the road and you can choose to go one direction or the other.

14:43Derrik Klassen: What do you think, barring something insane, like the whole roster falling apart or Baker missing the entire season, like what is realistically the highest the Bucs could be picking in the draft? Like 8, 9, 10, if the season is just freaking abysmal, just unbelievably awful?

15:05Dave Helman: Probably because even even a bad outcome, like the offense is still talented enough. They're like, it would be hard to see them being like terrible, terrible.

15:13Robert Mays: If they went seven and ten next year, I don't think that's like a crazy outcome. That's very much on the low end, but I don't think that's insane. What's the Bucks over under?

15:25Dave Helman: But, you know, we say this and then there's always a team that collapses like it's possible. It's possible. Eight and a half.

15:31Robert Mays: It's eight and a half. And so them being a seven and ten team, I don't think is nuts.

15:34Derrik Klassen: no it's not nuts but it also even going seven and ten doesn't necessarily put them in position to draft a quarterback that lets them out of this the the area where they are you know i mean i and if if they want to if they want to re-ride the baker carousel with the next guy who only wants two or three million dollars that's fine but odds are you're gonna wind up with somebody like Baker Mayfield again, which is good, by the way. Like, Baker Mayfield's a good player, but the way out of this world is to draft a higher caliber of prospect, and I just don't know if the Bucs can be bad enough for that to be a realistic option.

16:19Robert Mays: The Broncos drafted Bo Nix 10th overall. Would you rather have Bo Nix at this point making Bo Nix rookie money, or would you rather have Baker making$48 million a year?

16:28Dave Helman: I have seen.

16:28Robert Mays: but Bo was 12th Bo was 12th I believe whatever it is a quarterback outside of the top five in range where the Bucks might be drafting like and or like let's play it out even further like Tyler would you rather right now if I gave you the next four years and you could get Tyler Shuck on his contract that he currently has or you could get Baker at 48 million dollars a year

16:50Derrik Klassen: which would you rather do Baker at 48 million dollars a year I mean that's gonna sound negative toward Tyler Shuck, but like that it's just it's six games of like pretty good quarterback play as opposed to a guy in Baker that I've seen lead his team to the playoffs on multiple occasions and play like a really, really good quarterback for at least a few stretches there. I think that's two mystery bucks. I don't know.

17:17Robert Mays: I completely understand where you guys are coming from. I also just think that this like glimmer of competency is dangerous. it like there is like a downside to it because you're just like well I've seen Baker be pretty good like I'd rather have that well it's like well what you're paying him to be that version of good when we acknowledge how much has to go right around him for him to get there and if you're paying Tyler Shuck 500 grand a year or whatever it is it gives you a better chance to make sure everything else is right around that player calling what Baker has done in Tampa a

17:51Derrik Klassen: glimmer of competency and then opting for Tyler Shuck is pretty wild though and like that's exactly what Tyler Shuck has done. It's just that you're not as scared of the price. That's, that's all.

18:01Robert Mays: 2024 was a magnificent season. Okay. Last year, Baker was objectively bad.

18:08Derrik Klassen: Yes.

18:08Robert Mays: He was objectively bad. After being objectively great for six weeks and then it all fell apart. He was objectively bad in 2025. Look, 2024 was phenomenal, right? Like, where do you think the, but in 2023, we treat as this like resurgent year and he was good. and the counting stats are good where do you think the bucks ranked in passing dvoa in 2023 14th 16th close so we have 16th we have the liam cohen comet year and then we have last year where he was objectively bad that is the baker experience in tampa what do you make of that in totality and is that something you want to pay a premium for and probably not which is again where i would

18:54Dave Helman: arrive with like, I don't know if I would want to attach myself to that much money to Baker Mayfield. But again, I do think it comes down to a little bit the other factors of him being older and him again being a guy who I think is mobile. And maybe that's going to fall off a little bit. Like, listen, I obviously like Trevor Lawrence a lot, and I think that he's better. But I think you could probably generally put these two quarterbacks in the same quality of player, or at least a lot of people would. But Trevor's a lot younger, and I think you can see more upside with him. and I think his game is less tied to mobility.

19:23Dave Helman: He's so much more gifted too. I mean, well, Baker went first overall too. Like Baker can throw it. I know he did, but I don't know. Trevor's just built like a mech warrior. He is. And so there are some other factors, but like I think, again, that's why it's not just like the general player quality bucket. It's like some of these other factors with Baker.

19:45Robert Mays: So the question Nat asked, what is the best, worst, and most likely paths? the best path is that I think this is the best path and even it's maybe hard to frame it this way but I do think this would be the best outcome for the Bucs next year Baker is good enough for you to retain Baker you're paying him whatever you give him the Daniel Jones contract that's hypothetical you hire the next hot shot offensive play calling head coach and you get a Liam Cohen ask influence from that play caller and then you get the best out of Baker for the next two to three years into his mid thirties, you're legitimately competitive over that time because that's the offensive ecosystem.

20:20Robert Mays: I think that's the best outcome. If you are the Buccaneers, the worst outcome for you and the team is probably, I guess the worst outcome is like, depending on who worse for who for Baker, I think it's the Bucs bottom out this year. And then Baker moves on and he's like a quick fix quarterback. I'll, uh, what Derek Carter, Kirk cousins were in the NFC South three years ago. I mean, that's probably like the worst case outcome, but he still gets paid in that scenario. So that's not a terrible place to be. The most likely outcome, Baker is the Bucs quarterback for the next two to three years. They're middling offense.

20:55Robert Mays: And that's probably where things end up. They're the 14th best offense in the league for the next two years. Like that would be my guess beyond this season is still like the most likely way this plays out.

21:04Derrik Klassen: My only, I agree with you, except for the part where if the, if Baker bottoms out this year, like if he's, if he's bad, is somebody going to sign him to start for them meaningfully after that like after Gino Smith got another job so I would guess especially when you're looking at the free

21:23Robert Mays: agent quarterbacks that are going to be available next year I absolutely think even if Baker is bad this year he will shake loose and start somewhere like the Steelers will be in the quarterback mix again next offseason like there will be these teams and you know the team actually that we don't have to do this now but i've already started like playing this out two or three steps in advance let's just say we get to the end of this year and we think similarly of baker that we do now but the bucks have made the decision where they're not into it money-wise the team that i actually think might make sense for him in terms of where they're at in their build alternatives and what they're going to need to get out of the 2027 season is carolina yeah i i could i could see

22:05Dave Helman: them doing that that being like their best like quick can we get one tier better of quarterback or whatever it is I don't know if that I don't know I mean I know Steve Wilkes isn't there anymore

22:16Derrik Klassen: but it just doesn't seem like there's a lot of love lost between those two I get that I get the

22:20Robert Mays: history but that's the sort of situation I'm talking about again Gino Smith is back on the jets that's a great point I think will arise but that's that's the one I had in mind where it's like and if you look at it at this part part of this is driven by the discourse around the bryce bryce young fifth year option that was happening earlier this week but the the panthers paying bryce young 25 million next year no matter what in 2027 well that doesn't prevent you if you wanted to move on from bryce young if you're paying baker on a relative extension you're paying him not a lot in year one because it's a multi-year deal and you're paying your quarterback room combined 35 to 40 million dollars they'll be able to afford that so that's the type of situation i think that But if there is like a next chapter for Baker, that's not like totally doom and gloom.

23:04Robert Mays: That could be potentially what it looks like. All right. We spent 20 minutes on that, but that was a lot of layers to that discussion. Let's get to the next Baker.

23:11Derrik Klassen: Baker is just a well of content this offseason. It's great.

23:15Robert Mays: Well, when you when you are the quarterback that now represents that much of a larger idea about the league and the way that Baker now seems to you can take that in a lot of different directions. All right. What's the next one, Katie?

23:25Dave Helman: Speaking of the Panthers, this one is from Arrestes. The Panthers' decision for Canales to willingly hand off play-calling duties to Brad Idzik this offseason has me wondering how often a play-calling head coach has done this, especially when they weren't on the hot seat, and what the track record for this might have been. This feels unusual in recent history that a coach hired to be an offensive play-calling head coach has willingly given up that duty. Derek, what do you got? It was kind of hard for me to come up with that many examples. I feel like Tomlin kind of went on and off with doing this at certain times of like him commanding the defense and him not.

23:59Dave Helman: Did D 'Amico Ryans call the defense initially for the Houston Texans and then handed that off to Matt Burke? So that was another one where like, yeah. And so that's, that's obviously a situation. Like sometimes I feel like you get the passing of the play calling responsibility again when it's like hot seat, people are scrambling, yada, yada, yada. With the Texans, it was like, we're so damn good. Like I think D 'Amico Ryans was like, I'm going to like flex my muscles and do some of this other stuff. And so that to me was like the first one that really came to my mind.

24:25Robert Mays: Yeah, that's a good one. There are a lot of examples of guys who gave it up either before they took the job or at certain like inflection points changed it. Like so like Stefanski gave it to Tommy Reese in the middle of the season twice. And then now going into Atlanta, Tommy Reese is going to be the play caller in Atlanta. Kevin is not going to do that. Dable was like this with Kafka, where initially he gave it to him and then there was kind of like a back and forth. But in a situation like this where some of this stuff is driven by necessity or urgency or pressure, and the fact that it doesn't really seem driven by that in Carolina, I think, does make it seem like sort of an outlier.

25:03Speaking to the dynamics of this situation specifically, Dave and Brad have known each other for a really long time.

25:09Robert Mays: And I think this is as much a. This is as much a opportunity granted by a mentor friend to a guy that has aspirations as it is indicative of anything that's going wrong with Carolina or the people should be worried about. I think that Brad Edzig is a capable, ambitious person. And I think when you are in any sort of leadership role in the NFL, whether you're a coordinator, whether you're a head coach, trying to keep your staff as motivated, as engaged as possible and acknowledging what their aspirations and motivations are is important. And I think there's at least a little bit of that in play with this just from the outside looking in, if I had to guess, where it's like he wants this.

25:56Robert Mays: He's worked for it. I think we're in a position where this is the best thing to do for giving him an opportunity and for the overall health of like what we are as a staff. That would be my guess. And I think that's there's more to this than like, I don't think I'm good at it anymore. I think he'd be better at it than me. I think that's what I would say.

26:15Derrik Klassen: Every example I could think up over my time, there was an element of pressure, even if even if the guy didn't wind up getting fired. There was just some reason why there was pressure on them to make some kind of change. And really what I think is interesting is that this happened twice in one year. This weird thing that doesn't happen often is happening in two cities. And I think they're not completely congruous. Sean Payton gave up play calling duties to Davis Webb for this year as well. But it's wild that it's happening twice. And we all agree that it's not something that happens every year.

26:53Robert Mays: I'll say this, and this is probably irresponsible and a little bit reckless. When I look at it just from the outside looking in, the situation in Denver, to me, warrants a little bit more scrutiny and skepticism potentially in terms of the dynamics at play than the situation in Carolina does. Whether that's founded or not, that's my read on it.

27:19Dave Helman: Something about the Carolina one just kind of feels like a natural, like again we're giving a guy there the denver situation just feels weird in part because especially like sean payton just absolutely seems like someone who would not want to give that up and the fact that he has is it's interesting to say the least also it's funny because obviously

27:37Derrik Klassen: sean payton and davis webb don't go way back that would be impossible davis webb's only 31 years old and he never he never played for payton so i mean they they might know each other in a way that i'm not familiar with but the obvious connection of like payton coaching davis webb is not there and so i do i do think that's a little more interesting and i agree i just i i would have never guessed sean payton would would voluntarily give up play calling uh so i'll say this about yeah the broncos

28:08Robert Mays: coaching staff there is no set of staff dynamics and the way that a team works that comes up more unprompted when you're talking to other coaches around the league than the way the Broncos operate. They are there till three in the morning. It is just a different way of functioning than a lot of other staffs function. And I think that's just worth thinking about when you consider like some of the dynamics in that building, maybe compared to some of the dynamics with a lot of other staffs around the league.

28:43Derrik Klassen: It's really awesome that Sean Payton is carrying Bill Parcells legacy by just being Bill Parcells. It's great.

28:52Robert Mays: It comes up unprompted. Other people just being like, yeah, we talked to the guys in Denver. It's a whole different beast over there. And so that that is a thing that is like openly discussed before we move on. Let's take our first quick break.

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31:36Dave Helman: This one's from Elliot. He says, this year we are coming off one of the weirdest drafts as well as one of the weirdest coaching cycles in recent memory. This brings up a question. In the case especially with the Bills and Ravens, whether a coach is more important than players, what if, instead of being able to hire coaches as normal, any fired coaches, college coaches, and assistants could enter the draft? How would they be valued, both in a normal draft as well as this one? Would we see coaches going in the top 10 later in the first round or not until day two or three of the draft? Dave, what do you got?

32:07Derrik Klassen: First of all, Elliot, this is just a phenomenal question. Thank you for shit. Thank you for understanding the assignment of the mailbag. I love it. And I actually, I changed my thinking about this midway through because when I first read the question, I was kind of thinking of it like a fantasy football draft where you and your 10 or 12 team league is doing fantasy and you're like, oh, well, coach is important, But it's kind of like a great defense in fantasy football where like there are two or three that are worth drafting at all. And you're waiting until you've addressed some other positions before you do it.

32:46Derrik Klassen: But as I was thinking about that, I was like, wait a second. No, no, no, no. This is not a 12 team league. This is a 32 team league. And so if that's how you're thinking of it, of like a true NFL draft. I started thinking like, okay, there's probably, there's like six to eight quarterbacks that are really worth prioritizing. And then just go through the top tier positions of like, you know, we, we did a mailbag a few weeks back at this point where we said there's like 10 to 12 premium edge rushers. And there's probably 15 premium receivers that are worth being excited about and on and on down the line.

33:26Derrik Klassen: And I found myself thinking, okay, there's probably 45, 50 players that are really, really good and important enough that you should try to prioritize those guys. But I found myself thinking like after that drop off where the true blue chips are gone, I'm starting to get interested in McVay, Shanahan, McDonald, Ben Johnson. And I don't think so.

33:51Robert Mays: You think there are 50 players you'd rather have than Sean McVay? probably yeah oh i don't i i don't get nearly that deep into it so hold on i'm talking like the quarterbacks and then i'm curious like which players are better no like i think i so go ahead

34:07Dave Helman: derrick i think i took this question as not like drafting the entire league but like what if in this cycle the cowboys had to either draft jesse minter or caleb downs like that that's kind of how I'm imagining oh I was thinking of it from like scratch where you're just like filling out your organization I thought it was like like the set of fired coaches or a promoted assistance in a given year and also like within that specific draft class that's how I was imagining it and I

34:36Robert Mays: think that's that's how I envisioned it as well and so I think that but if you like and and so I think that's right but in any given draft it changes right and so like let's play this out I think that's a really good one. And so this draft is an interesting one where it's like a guy like Jesse Minter, how many players in this draft, because there aren't a lot of quarterbacks and there weren't any blue chip, there weren't a lot of blue chip talent. How many guys in this draft specifically would you have taken over Jesse Minter?

35:04Derrik Klassen: I'll be honest. That's not as interesting to me because Jesse Minter is, he's not a known commodity as a head coach, but we know what he can do for a defense. Even the guys that you love the most in any given draft class is it's such a projection jumping to the NFL. Like I would take in this draft class specifically, it's already been long enough since the draft that I have to go back and refresh myself on what even happened. But like, I'm probably taking Jesse Minter in the top 10. Right.

35:32Dave Helman: Yes, I probably am, too. But even then, I don't think that that's perfect. Like we thought Brandon Staley was going to be like a like a certain like does something for your defense. And then like and again, I think Minter will be a good head coach. I'm not saying that's going to go the way that Brandon Staley did. But like there's also a potential outcome for that's why I think it's interesting is that it's guys who have not been head coaches before you're drafting them. Sometimes they've never done. Sometimes it could be. That's true.

35:55Robert Mays: John Harbaugh is an option for this. Like Mike McDaniel could be.

35:58Dave Helman: Yeah. Okay. That's a good point. That's a good point.

36:00Robert Mays: And even last year, like the last year's crop, I think is really interesting one because let's play this out. Like if you're the Bears, you can use your 10th overall pick on Colson Love under Ben Johnson. It's Ben Johnson by far.

36:14Derrik Klassen: Yes.

36:15Robert Mays: It's not even a discussion. And that's a projection, but you have a guess. If we were doing it for all coaches, think about the impact that a coach has over the course of a team. I think quarterback, you could argue coach or quarterback. Would you rather have Josh Allen or Sean McVay? It's like a real discussion. It's probably the quarterbacks, but it's the highest level quarterbacks. How many quarterbacks would you list off before you got to the coaches? And would there be any non-quarterbacks? Like, would you rather have Miles Garrett or Sean McVay?

36:52Derrik Klassen: See, that's, and that's what I think is more interesting because I don't know, man. I still, like when you're talking about the gap between the blue chip guys, and like I said, there's a handful of them at every single position. And I get it. Coaching can be such a great equalizer, but having a Miles Garrett or a Jamar Chase or an offensive tackle that you just never have to think about for a decade. I mean, that feels so tremendously valuable to me. I think it's close. I don't know. Like maybe 50 is harsh, but like I think I could get toward the bottom of the first round and be conflicted about whether I wanted to take a coach or a player.

37:34Dave Helman: I do think Myles Garrett is an interesting one because I think people will immediately look at it and be like, well, what have the Browns done since Myles Garrett has gone there? But that to me is a product of like the way that the NFL draft works. Like it's like if you put Miles Garrett on an average NFL team, like you would get higher quality play. Like I still probably would take Miles Garrett can't make a bad team average.

37:55Robert Mays: A good coach can make a bad team average or an average team good. The overall impact and like scope that a coach has is just so much bigger than any one player who's not a quarterback.

38:06Dave Helman: I probably agree. I would probably still land on the coach, but I want people to not just look at Miles Garrett and be like, well, he's on the Browns and what have the Browns done? That's fair. His defenses have been elite at times, almost solely because he exists there. And I do think that that matters.

38:24Robert Mays: I'm not trying to be like the players don't matter. That's not how I feel at all. I just think it would require more scrutiny to actually think about this. And I remember Barnwell, probably in 2014, wrote a story about how many, in a trade value situation, how many players are more valuable than Jim Harbaugh. And it was a really interesting way to think about this. And that was 12 years ago now. But my knee-jerk thought is a certain number of quarterbacks would go first. And then a certain number of coaches would go first. And I don't think that that list is necessarily that long, but I think when I think about the post quarterback group, Ben, like McVay, hopefully Ben Johnson is that sort of guy, Kyle Shanahan, like the high, high end coaches.

39:12Robert Mays: And then I think I get to the non quarterbacks and I will say the rest of the coaches.

39:17Derrik Klassen: That's my knee jerk thought going back to my coaches as fantasy defenses thing. There's like four that I would prioritize drafting. And then I wouldn't give a shit after that. I'm like, okay. like I'll get one at some point yeah once these six guys are gone does it matter and that's kind of how I would think about it is I think that that group of coaches I think would

39:38Robert Mays: go before the non-quarterbacks just because of the scope of impact like you're affecting entire units like the offensive success is so it's directly tied to quarterback play and the quality of your offensive ecosystem and the coach drives that and like I just think that the coach can have such an outsized impact on that. Not over the, a coach can't fix poor talent across the board, but one player is one player. Like, I'd rather have a good collection of talent than a good coach, but that's not the question here. It's like, it's one player or one coach. And so that to me is what swings it.

40:13Derrik Klassen: You're probably right. I'm just imagining if you, if you drafted Sean McVay eighth in a draft of everyone, then you're that much more depleted when it comes time to start adding talent. But you're right. I mean, there's 22 guys that you're leaning on and the differences that he would make up for you is worth it at the end of the day. Yeah, I think you influenced me. It's just hard to imagine having those sorts of players available to you and not drafting one. But in totality, I think that's right.

40:51Robert Mays: Doing it as an offseason exercise, though, becomes really interesting. I think in this draft specifically, I'd probably rather bet on a Jesse Minter than I would on a lot of the players in the top 10. But, like, let's just play this out even further. The 2021 draft that we all loved, right, with Jamar Chase and all of those guys. That coaches hired in that cycle were Urban Meyer, Robert Sala, Arthur Smith, Brandon Staley, David Cully, Dan Campbell, Nick Sirianni. even in the moment i think i rather would have had a lot of the players than that collection of coaches right i'd rather even in the moment i think i'd rather have jamar chase than any of those guys because they're such unknowns and the unknown quality of it does change things a little

41:37Dave Helman: bit right but and again it depends on the class a little bit like this class like you could probably bump the number higher in terms of like how early would i take the head coach but that 2021 class was like we knew it was stars up and down the top 10 and so that does kind of change the math even if there had been some head coaching candidates that we were excited about like I think Sala people were excited about him and I think he is a good coach but guys like Jamar Chase and Panay Sewell it's like to like to Dave's point to not have to think about my tackle situation for a long time because I have Panay Sewell that kind of goes a long way do we think I'd be curious like the

42:15Robert Mays: actual historical hit rate on this do you think the historical hit rate is higher for players we consider blue chip prospects of premium positions or coaching candidates like who is it more like let's just let's like pick the best possible coaching candidate over the last like five years probably like ben johnson right in terms of like the guy that was the most sought after the guy that had like the most interest and then let's compare him to like jamar chase like in the moment who do you think has a better chance of success and we've never seen them do it in that in the nfl

42:46Dave Helman: I think blue chip, honestly, I feel like the NFL is actually pretty good at being like, that guy is a special talent. We're going to bet on it. I feel like the NFL is pretty good at that.

42:55Robert Mays: So then you have like these competing factors where the uncertainty, like if we, if we, even if we acknowledge that the impact of the coach is probably wider than one blue chip player at a non-quarterback position, if the uncertainty is higher with the coaches, does that push you to draft the blue chip players ahead of them in this sort of exercise? I do think the NFL has largely gotten better about that,

43:20Derrik Klassen: at least when it comes to, like, superstar coaching candidates. Not necessarily. It's still a crapshoot whether a coach is going to work out and successful coaches come from all over the place. But I just remember going back decades, back when the hotshot college coach used to get the NFL job, and that was a disaster so often. Like, the NFL fell in love with so many bad head coaches over the, you know, dating back to the 2000s and the 90s and even before that.

43:48Robert Mays: I think that's true to a point. But I also think, like, let's not pretend that we weren't excited about Brandon Staley in 2021. Let's not pretend that everyone associated with the NFL was like, man, Aaron Glenn. What's Aaron Glenn going to do? We're excited about Aaron Glenn. And then a year later, it's just like, holy shit.

44:04Dave Helman: I think I have the perfect one. In 2023, the Texans hired D 'Amico Ryans and then drafted Will Anderson. Which would you have rather done? Like if you can only have picked one, it's a really, really good question. Like D 'Amico's great, but Will Anderson, like I just pass rushers like that. Don't come along very often.

44:23Robert Mays: This is also my natural inclination to default to the, to the offensive coach and the offensive play caller is like the most valuable version of this. And so that's why for me, it's like that one, that one's a little more interesting, right? It's like, I think I'd still, Oh man, that's a tough one.

44:42Dave Helman: that one is the toughest because those two feel like the hardest to divorce in terms of like why is the texans defense it's so true it's so true it's funny because i have the 2021 draft

44:55Derrik Klassen: pulled up in front of me because you said you wanted to talk about it and he'd be super high on the list of coaches i would draft but there's trey lance staring at me with the number three overall pick from Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. So, you know, nobody's infallible, right?

45:17Robert Mays: Is it unfair that I think I'd rather have Will Anderson? This is my offensive bias showing. I think I'd rather have Will Anderson.

45:23Dave Helman: I think I probably, and again, I think D 'Amico Reince is obviously a fantastic coach, but the pass rushers like that were usually pretty good at the hit rate on that. Like when we really think that they are that level of guy, the NFL is pretty good at like, yep, that that's correct.

45:39Robert Mays: This is exactly what we're talking about, though, where you have the court, the quarterbacks at the top, top, top. And then you have a small group of coaches that I think would go after the quarterbacks. And then you get into the group of non quarterbacks versus that next tier of coaches and what that looks like. And I do think that that's that's a more difficult decision. Fun question. All right. What's the next one, Katie?

46:01Dave Helman: let's remember some guys this one is from jacob van roy he says gentlemen who do you believe is the second best draft pick of all time when you weigh where they were drafted versus the career they had i think we can all comfortably say tom brady is the best but as bill goldberg always said who's next options i thought of kurt warner bart star and terrell davis any other ideas thanks for reading and i really love the show robert take it away kurt warner wasn't drafted so i think that's

46:27Robert Mays: a tough one but that's in terms of yeah that that was a cheater like and it's like tony romo would be in there right if we're doing undrafted guys uh the easy answer is joe montana right if you look at nfl history like joe montana is the easy answer i think you gotta separate quarterback

46:43Derrik Klassen: from everybody else because it's just it wait like i think montana is an obvious answer and i would throw my homes in there too getting him at number 10 overall is crazy i actually put that as

46:53Dave Helman: well like to have this initial seven years that he had at 10th overall is like i know it's first round all that stuff but that's crazy yeah that's that's a good one i i dug a little bit deeper when

47:06Robert Mays: it came to i was looking at players like drafted a little bit later but my home is a very good answer i tried to limit it to like the last 20 years just to like have it be like the modern version of the nfl some guys i would throw out there russell wilson and dak prescott yeah absolutely involved in this in terms of like roi from where they were drafted um romo wasn't a draft pick but he's in there the kelseys both of them yeah absolutely what

47:32Dave Helman: third and like sixth round picks sixth third and sixth round picks the kelseys like what travis

47:37Robert Mays: kelsey was is a third round pick uh nfc west guys richard sherman is in there as a fifth round pick i would put fred warner in there as one of the best draft picks of the last like 20 years yep third round pick. Those are most of the names I came up with, but the Kelsey's those two quarterbacks, Richard Sherman, Fred Warner, Romo being in there a little bit like the modern answers. Those that's what I came up with outside of like the first two rounds.

48:02Derrik Klassen: Sherman was on my list as well. I had some older school guys. I mean, I got to throw it out there. 16th overall. And again, like I know it's first round. I get it. 16th overall. And you get Jerry Rice, who to this day is, I mean, like, it's not even a question. Like nobody, it's one of the few things in the NFL where nobody's going to debate you about who the best is. Like the gold standard, getting him 16th overall, I think is crazy. And then another first round pick that I think has insane value, 26th overall, Ray Lewis being the standard for linebacker play And also the, one of the foundations of an organization that was just getting off the ground and was part of both of their Superbowl teams and was the MVP of their first Superbowl.

48:56Derrik Klassen: I mean, get it, getting him at 10 would have been crazy. And the Ravens got him all the way back at 26th overall. I mean, that's nuts.

49:03Robert Mays: Aaron Donald was the 14th pick in his own draft.

49:06Dave Helman: Yeah. I, so to, to get out of the first round for a minute, I did go back a little bit more to the nineties. actually another uh yeah into the 90s shannon sharp was a seventh round pick and he had a hall of fame career like that in terms of roi that's that's about as good as it gets yeah that's a

49:26Robert Mays: really good one i don't want to go back too far because then it's just like hard to get your arms around i wanted right a little bit but those two decades think those are the guys that i landed on

49:35Derrik Klassen: i wanted to throw this out there too if he never plays another down what the niners got out of Purdy as Mr. Irrelevant is still ridiculous. I mean, we, we used to say like Ryan suck up was the best Mr. Irrelevant. That was this, that's, that's a success story for the last pick in the draft. And then you show up and get a guy who can take you to a super bowl and is worth a contract extension and has won a shitload of games for the 49ers. I mean, not as nowhere near as good as Montana or my homes or most of these other guys we've said, but like, you're just, you're not supposed to be able to find that caliber of player with the final pick in the draft two guys i would

50:16Robert Mays: throw out that i didn't list them because they played on multiple teams and so it's the team that drafted them didn't necessarily get all this value but cousins is involved in for the exact same reason like what kurt cousins his contract does look like for where he was drafted is remarkable

50:29Dave Helman: and the other one to was a third round pick man that's a great one but it's like who do you who's

50:37Robert Mays: pick like is it the Niners is it like valuable to the league to the NFL as a whole there were a lot

50:43Derrik Klassen: of guys that I thought about and I I just leaned toward lifers like guys who played most of if not all of their careers for one team because like that's what I did too Charles Haley is worth mentioning too but he split between the Niners and the Cowboys it's like where do you go with that and so guys that were with one team for most of their careers I waited more heavily uh one more because I say this all the time, freaky Hall of Fame caliber edge rushers are supposed to be big-time picks. Michael Strahan was pick 40. And he's sixth on the all-time sack list and all the all-pros and pro bowls you could want and help the Giants win a Super Bowl.

51:26Derrik Klassen: Getting him at pick 40 is pretty wild, too.

51:29Robert Mays: The last one I'd throw out, pass rushers, similar conversation, Jared Allen was a fourth-round pick.

51:35Derrik Klassen: but he he split time between teams yeah that's right that's right he split time between teams

51:40Robert Mays: but jared allen is another one where it's like jared allen finished with 136 sacks as the 126 pick in the draft that just does not happen very often all right before we get to the next question let's take one more quick break security program on spreadsheets new regulations piling up and

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52:11Robert Mays: Call it compliance or call it compliance. Get it?

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53:30Dave Helman: This is option zero on Discord. They say, as the Rams have shifted from 11 personnel to 13 personnel over the years, Kyle has steadfastly stuck in using a fullback. Use check. What do you think is the advantage of a fullback compared to a third wide receiver or extra tight ends? Is it as simple as use check being a cool hang? Derek, what do you think? I'm sure he is, but I don't think that that is really what the reason for him being where he is. I think it's a couple of things. I would say schematically, it just depends a little bit on some of the runs that you want to run. Like I know Kyle Shanahan's run game has evolved a little bit over the last handful of years, but it's still a lot of wide zone, lead zone, all this sort of stuff.

54:12Dave Helman: And when you have a true traditional fullback in the backfield, the guy who is used to lining up there, sees the angles really well. That's the style of play that they want to do. It makes sense to have like a true fullback at that spot. And I know that the Rams sometimes will have a tight end and put him at fullback, but it's just different when you're a lifer at that position. And then the other thing that I would say, and I think maybe the reason they enjoy it, it's a unique advantage. There are other teams that use fullbacks, but he's the only guy that good, who is that good a pass catcher, who is an elite blocker, who has been doing it for, I mean, Juszczyk came into the league in what, 2013, 2012?

54:50Dave Helman: A long time now. It's been a long, because he was with the Ravens for a while. And that's kind of the other thing, too, is he's there are not that many fullbacks. He really might be the only one who has played in so many offenses for so long that put him on the field a lot. Like he's really the only fullback in the league that has this many reps. So there's just kind of like a unique advantage that they can get out of having this one guy. And so I really would be curious to see how this evolves when whenever he decides to go, whenever he decides to retire, then what does Kyle Shanahan do? I don't know, but I think right now they're in a spot where it's like, we're the only team that can get away with this.

55:25Dave Helman: And this gives us a kind of unique advantage.

55:29I settled on thinking like, I think it's it's the body type and the skill set that Juszczyk brings to the position.

55:37Derrik Klassen: I mean, think about how much the 49ers use motion, too, and how heavy a role that Kyle Juszczyk has in that. I mean, he darts all over the formation all the time. You're so right, Derek. Like they use him to get him out in space on like wide runs a lot. And I think, of course, there are plenty of tight ends who could do that. But I think Juszczyk just has a baseline of athleticism to let him do that stuff quickly, confidently, and in a variety of ways. I mean, he's an outlet in the passing game as well. You can count on him as the guy to get to the flat or the guy to break out of one of those motions into a wheel route or things like that.

56:17Derrik Klassen: I just think his his blend of size and athleticism is it's weird to say it's unique because I do think there are plenty of tight ends and H backs that can do that. But I think he moves faster and more fluidly than your average tight end who would fill that role. And on top of that, when in doubt, it's not so much that Juszczyk is a cool hang. Juszczyk's been in this offense for a decade, and coaches love guys that they can trust. Kyle Shanahan doesn't want to have to think about whether this guy is going to f*** something up because he went the wrong way or motioned to the wrong side or they had to call a timeout because something got screwed up.

57:00Derrik Klassen: He just doesn't have to think about it. And I don't know use checks contract. I don't have it in front of me. I don't know it off the top of my head, but I'm, he doesn't make enough money to where Kyle Shanahan's like, we gotta, we gotta save money somewhere. We gotta do something else. I think he's going to ride that until the wheels fall off because trust is so, so important to football coaches.

57:22Robert Mays: I think everything you guys said is, is right on the short area of quickness and the movement skills. Absolutely stand out. Like he's just moving differently than a lot of tight ends are going to move. He's six to like, he just, he's up back. Like at the end of the day, even if he's using all these different ways, he's still built like a back. And so his ability, the change of direction in short areas, his ability to play in space, like when you're a lead blocker and somebody, and that's not everything he does, obviously, you're still seeing things like a back. Like you have to have yourself to see the game that way.

57:51Robert Mays: And so his ability to do that, you feel that. And even when he's not doing it from like a two back set in the backfield, he's still blocking on the move often enough where that way of moving and that way of seeing the game becomes advantageous. Just think about how many different times they've motioned him out and then he cuts back across the formation. Like they're just asking him to move in very different ways. And in terms of deployment with now having McCaffrey having a back back there that can see things from a pass protection standpoint can actually do like in the backfield running back stuff is important for them because of all the different ways they use McCaffrey.

58:28Robert Mays: So that's a new wrinkle and benefit to him being back there, but it absolutely is important. And I think the other one is schematic and just in terms of like how teams react to certain personnel groupings for a very long time. being in 21 was a better thing to do than being in 12 because of the way that defenses reacted to it so in 2020 defenses played 42 percent nickel to 12 personnel they paid 27 percent nickel to 21 and so if you want two receivers on the field but you want to make sure the other team is in base 21 was the quickest way to do that well defenses have learned now that that's what they want you to do.

59:10Robert Mays: And so now we're at a place where last season it was exactly the same. It's 27.8 % nickel for 21 and 12. And so now I think that the, now I think the advantages are more bucketed into schematic advantages and X's and O's on the chalkboard. I think previously, one of the bigger advantages was you are dictating terms and how another defense is going to play. And so I think that was, it's become less of that bucket and more of the first one, but that absolutely was a part of it when you go back over the last 10 or 15 years as to why the Shanahan teams wanted to do this.

59:43Derrik Klassen: Is it fair to say that's the most important undercurrent in football right now is successful defenses saying enough, enough of this shit. We're going to do what we want.

59:55Dave Helman: And it's why Kyle Shanahan, right. It's why until, until three years, years ago, Shanahan was always able to dictate his terms and the offense could kind of be whatever it was going to be, even with Jimmy Garoppolo, quarterback. And the reason it's had to change over the last few years is partly because of what you're talking about with just the different personnel changes on defense and stuff like that. Also, I looked this up. So Juszczyk was drafted 2013 by the Ravens, didn't really start playing until 2014. In that span, which is what, 12 seasons? Yeah, 12 seasons. He's played 5 ,900 snaps.

1:00:28Dave Helman: I'm not going to go look at every fullback in the league over that span but there's no shot anyone is even close and so again it just comes down to like there really isn't anyone else in the nfl like this right now dude the only team

1:00:40Derrik Klassen: going back to 2022 the only team that's even in the same zip code as san francisco for 21 personnel usage is miami they're the only team that's like it's it's san francisco and miami over the last four years and then the next best teams are are many many percentage percentage points below that it's yeah like there are teams that use fullbacks but the and and mike mcdaniel's not even in miami anymore so we'll see how that changes like that the niners are they stand alone in terms of

1:01:12Robert Mays: consistency with doing this well al ginkold is in is on the chargers like that's true i assume

1:01:17Derrik Klassen: they will continue to do the chargers are going to be the ones that jump up into the number two spot. Yeah, I assume

1:01:23Robert Mays: the Chargers will continue to do this. Alright, that is all we've got for today. Sincerely appreciate all of you guys who sent in questions. We had a bunch that we didn't get to because we spent so much time on a lot of the good ones. We will try to get to those in future mailbags. So, we will continue to be doing these over the next I don't know, the entire offseason really. I'm going to put a week number on it. For now, that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

1:01:51Robert Mays: If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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