Are the Chiefs and Lions still who we think they are?

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1:46Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mayes. The Lingering Questions series rolls on today, our fourth one. three questions that we wanted to sit with that we didn't feel like we got satisfactory answers from over the back half of last season about the Colts, the Lions, and the Chiefs. Some news about the Lions, obviously, over the last 24 hours, Terry and Arnold released. We're already probably going to do this with the Lions, but we felt like we should speed it up a little bit on the heels of Terry and Arnold news. The Lions, even with the questions that they have in their secondary, are the betting favorites to win the NFC North.

2:18Robert Mays: The way they played at the end of last season, Let's go back and watch that. Should they be the favorites to win the NFC North? So that was the lingering question we had about the Lions. The Chiefs are a team that we always have the benefit of the doubt with them, no matter what seems to be happening. Should we? That's my lingering question about the Chiefs from 2025. So we went back, watched a little bit of their offense, some of the things they struggled with, and whether we should continue to have the benefit of the doubt for the Kansas City Chiefs. Then we also talked about the Indianapolis Colts.

2:47Robert Mays: Was the Daniel Jones injury the reason for the Colts falling off of a cliff last year, or did we see some of the issues start to crop up even before that happened? Chiefs, Colts, and Lions, lingering questions with me, Dave, and Derek Klassen. Let's get to it right now.

3:14Robert Mays: our lingering question series rolls on today we have three more that we're digging into chat a little bit about the indianapolis colts and whether daniel jones's injury was solely responsible for their downturn offensively in the back half of last year we're going to chat about the Kansas City Chiefs and whether the Chiefs still deserve the benefit of the doubt, as I think we continue to give it to them, should we be doing that? But we're going to start this show by sneaking in a little bit of news. As we finished recording yesterday, Dave, like right as we finished recording, the news that the Lions had released Terry and Arnold came down, and we had been dancing around a Lions question in the lingering questions and now felt like the right time after the Arnold after the Arnold news came out I think I want to sit with the Detroit Lions and what they were at the end of last year and what that might tell us about what they might

4:08Derrik Klassen: be moving forward and it's the I mean not to make light of the situation because there's obviously serious charges that Terry and Arnold is facing and to be released that quickly like to be blunt about it whether that's right or wrong like for an NFL team to so quickly wash their hands of a situation. I would love it if more NFL teams were willing to raise their or lower their tolerance for shit like that, but you don't see it that often. So I think it speaks volumes. And on a football level, again, not to minimize that, but on a football level, it's just the latest issue in what has been six months full of them for particularly the Detroit secondary, but the Lions and Lions in general dealing with a fair amount of attrition this year.

4:57Derrik Klassen: And like I said, especially in their secondary.

4:59Robert Mays: I'm sure you guys have seen the news around Terry Arnold and what's been happening. But just quickly to recap, Terry Arnold's been in custody since Wednesday. He's facing eight felony charges. His bond has been set in a million dollars. And prosecutors requested he wear a GPS tracking device. It was rejected because he wouldn't be able to play football with that on. Well, might not be a problem anymore. So a lot of things kind of weighing here on the Lions with Terry and Arnold situation. And Derek, the reason this kind of folds into the conversation I wanted to have about the Lions anyway, as Dave just alluded to, the Lions have faced tons of issues on their defense personnel wise this offseason.

5:35Robert Mays: When are guys going to play? When are we going to get the safeties back? Now what's going to happen at corner? And if you look at the odds right now, the Lions are still favored to win the NFC North. They have been favored to win the NFC North throughout this entire offseason. So the lingering question I wanted to talk about today is based on the way they played last year, especially in the back half of last year. Is that enough for a Lions team facing all of these questions to justifiably be the favorite in the NFC North? So what say you?

6:07Dave Helman: I don't know if I would pick them to be my team, but I don't know if I actually feel confident enough in any of the other teams, because I think it's very easy to pick a team like the Chicago Bears. right but I think I think one I think the Lions offense and the Bears offense are probably going to be closer to each other than we think like I think this it feels like the sky is the limit for the Bears offense and it might be but I've said before on previous shows I think the Lions offense is going to be exceptional again and we can talk about that in a little bit and then defensively like I don't think the Lions defense is going to be very good and we can talk about a lot of the reasons why again the secondary not having their safeties it was already a thin cornerback group Like they lost to Meek Roberts in this offseason, who I think actually played a really good ball for them.

6:48Dave Helman: And obviously now losing Arnold. We don't know when we're getting the safeties back. Like I think they could be tough. I don't know if I feel great enough about any of the other NFC North teams to be like the Lions clearly should not be the favorite. So I think for that reason, I actually don't think it's that crazy because you can totally sell me on the world that even if the defense is not good and I don't think they will be, that the offense can score 28, 29 points again. And they can be the reason that they would win a lot of these shootouts.

7:14Robert Mays: I see your gears turning over there.

7:15Derrik Klassen: That's what I've been doing since I started prepping for this show. I love shows like this because if you get in there and leave your preconceived notions at the door, you'll be surprised at the opinions you come up with. And I went into this question and I've felt kind of iffy about the Lions for a while. Like the situations with their safeties scare me deeply. The front hasn't been good enough. and, you know, leaning on a second round pick and Derek Moore to be some kind of difference maker for your pass rush. I don't love that. It just feels like the classic case of the elite team piece by piece losing things and changing things and saying, no, it's still OK.

7:58Derrik Klassen: We're still the Lions. And that not being true. Having said that, when I spent a day digging into it, I came out the other side kind of bullish on the question. bullish and saying, yeah, I think I think the situation bears them being the betting favorites. And that's it's a pretty strict framing. I'm not trying to predict how the season's going to go. But in early July, having looked at it and we can get into my reasoning, I was just like, yeah, I think this makes sense. And I was a little bit surprised to land there.

8:31Robert Mays: There's a lot of things happening all at once here. The questions about the defense are very real and are even realer when now you're digging into your cornerback debt before the season even starts and i think that if we're trying to paint the pessimistic picture picture why there's cause for concern that should move them below a team like the packers or the bears as we're stacking up or handicapping the nfc north the fact that at the beginning of the season we're already just trying to tread water defensively the same way they were in the back half of last year that's scary. That's a really scary place to be.

9:05Robert Mays: Like I went back and I watched the Steelers game this morning, because if you look at the guys who were on the field in the Steelers game, it's actually akin to what they're going to look like this year. Taryn Arnold wasn't playing in that game. The safeties are already hurting that game. But Derek, even when you go back and watch that, Amik Robertson is a part of that defense. And so you look at the back half of last year, the Lions defense, despite all the injuries, was not a disaster in the back half of last season. They were 13th overall on defensive success rate from week 10 onward. They were bottom 10 in EPA per play on defense in part because they gave up a ton of explosive plays.

9:40Robert Mays: There's a chance that carries over when you're dealing with all these injuries in the secondary and all these injuries at safety. But I do think that we've already seen Kelvin Shepard show us that he can stop the bleeding on that side of the ball, even with some of the personnel concerns. So I think if you're trying to paint the pessimistic case, to me, the central question is probably how bad will the defense be? Like, what do we think the floor of this looks like? And is it the 20th best defense? Is it the 28th best defense? Because based on what I saw last year, and again, I want to root this conversation in that.

10:13Robert Mays: What happened at the end of last season if it's a lingering question? I actually think, Derek, that Kelvin Shepard did plenty to inspire some confidence in his ability to get by no matter who they're trotting out out there.

10:24Dave Helman: I agree with that. I mean, we all remember the Ravens game, right? like the way that the way that they handled them like I to me they have a defensive coordinator who can raise the floor for them enough which I think is like a huge huge thing for them I think Kelvin Shepard has done a great job I would be really interested to see if he can piece together even like a mildly above average defense with this unit he should be getting head coaching calls obviously that's a lot given the roster but I think they have the floor raisers there and I do think they have some ceiling raisers obviously Aiden Hutchinson purely as a pass rusher is one of the best in the league and then jack campbell is incredible like him getting first team all pro like that was absolutely deserved he's gotten way better in coverage than he was early in his career the way that he handles blocks is fantastic he's a really really good run defender i think those two guys give you the cornerstone pieces that you need to be able to build like a defensive system around and then i think a lee mcneil like when he's healthy is a really explosive player maybe Tyleek Williams takes a step like I don't think it's a great defense I would think even in literally the best world possible they're like the 14th best defense but I do kind of think that they can get there and hold on I'm mostly worried about the secondary because even if edges thin I actually do think having Aiden Hutchinson alone gives you enough of a pass rush especially if the defensive tackles are going to give you some pocket push the corner room I am I am worried about the corner room in the safety room I'm a little bit scared yeah I think the front even if

11:49Robert Mays: there are some questions here and even if they are again just kind of crossing their fingers and hoping that a guy like Derek Moore comes in and gives them what they need I still think the front has a chance to be better than it was last year simply because you have a Lee McNeil one year further removed from the injury you have Tylek Williams heading into year two you do at least have a dice roll that you picked in the second round of the draft like I think the front could probably be okay and if they can again just kind of hold on in the secondary I do think there's a chance that they end up being like a league average defense.

12:19Robert Mays: And if that happens, the question I was kind of going over this morning as I was thinking about this conversation and what the Lions could potentially achieve. If I asked you to bet like a year's salary on a team. I do not bet that. Okay. Or like your house, right? Great. Real stakes. Sure. On one offense in the NFC North that finishes as a top five offense this year, which offense would you pick?

12:47Derrik Klassen: the Lions. Me too. Which and I think again that is such a crucial point of this question and if we want to talk about obviously with how close they've gotten the Lions should have lofty expectations and we should hold them to such but like if we're just the question is preseason favorite in the NFC North Derek already made the point. I think all four teams in the NFC North have the potential to be good but you're still dancing with some kind of devil if you're trying to pick which one you feel the best with every single team with

13:19Robert Mays: every single team with every single team like the Packers defense fell off a cliff last year we know why that happened or at least partially why that happened because Micah Parsons got hurt but Micah

13:29Derrik Klassen: Parsons is gonna miss a chunk of the season he's gonna miss chunk of the season you're switching

13:33Robert Mays: out the defensive coordinator you didn't really get better on that side of the ball this offseason with the additions that you made not demonstrably better Derek has talked ad nauseum about the quality of the offensive line, what that means for the overall ceiling of the Packers offense. There are tons of questions there. I think there is a justifiable amount of optimism about the Bears offense. There are questions there again. There's going to be some regression. The offensive line probably won't be as healthy as it was last year. The offensive line personnel wise isn't as good walking into the season as it was a year ago.

14:00Robert Mays: I still have questions about how good the quarterback is going to end up being. And then you look at Minnesota and yeah, in theory, they should be better at quarterback and that should give them the potential to be a 10 11 win potential wildcard team they could win the division but we've literally never seen the quarterback play in that offense like we're talking about question marks that remains a huge one even if you can build a case for optimism there and so while I do think this division is kind of a snake pit and it's going to be really competitive and all these teams are going to be at least decent every single one of them has massive question marks at some really important spot.

14:37Dave Helman: And that's why I actually feel really good about the Lions offense. Obviously, they have some changing pieces, right? Like they're changing offensive coordinator, but they're going from someone who it's not like they lost like a it's not like they're the Bucks when they lost Liam Cohen and you're having to replace it. It's like they lost an offensive coordinator that they took the reins from midseason and are giving it to somebody firing. Yes, a quiet firing and giving it to someone who I don't know if Drew Petsing is like one of those ceiling raising offensive coordinators I think he at least gets you to like solid and you're running a nice NFL offense you pair that with like three of the five pieces of the offensive line are coming back and I've actually gotten more comfortable with the idea of you know I know when they drafted Blake Miller I was like why are you moving the best right tackle in the league like just keep him where he is but I've I've come more to like Dave's side and you guys the side of like dude he's panaceal he'll probably be fine at left tackle and I actually did like

15:29Dave Helman: yeah I've gotten there I don't even know why I was as worried as I would and also like I think too I was doing a thing of like I liked Monroe Freeling slightly more than Blake Miller as a prospect I still thought Blake Miller was a really good player and so I've gotten there what the offensive line can be and then skill players it's like they're you know I said it on the supporting cash show I think it's as good as you could possibly get and they have explosive players everywhere like you made the point like is there's an offense I'm betting here to be top five, it almost has to be the Lions just because I've seen it before with most of these same pieces.

16:00Robert Mays: Last year, I mean, it felt like when we were talking about the Lions, when we were reckoning with the Lions during the season, it really did feel like the offense was kind of in its worst case scenario era over the last five years, like since the Lions became this sort of offense. Under those circumstances, the Lions finished seventh in offensive DVOA last year, seventh. They were a top 10 offense by like any metric. They were much more inconsistent than they've been in years past. That was the frustrating part of this. One simple way to illustrate that Jared Goff last year finished fifth in EPA per dropback, which I want to have a conversation about Jared Goff at some point in this too.

16:37Robert Mays: The fact that Jared Goff's offensive line was as bad as ever going to be last year. And he was fifth in EPA per dropback. Jared Goff is good at football, but fifth in EPA per dropback for Goff last year. So you saw how explosive this team was, the ceiling of the offense. he was 12th in success rate. And you felt that. It was just a little bit more volatile last season, I think in large part, because of the questions at play caller, but also just the quality of the offensive line. And Derek, when we were doing this supporting cast, I think there was part of me that was a little bit hesitant about, well, they added guys on the offensive line, so it's automatically going to be better.

17:10Robert Mays: And it's like, well, one of the guys is a rookie right tackle, and Cade Macy is somebody that was never really a starter before last year. There's a path to this being better, but we're really sure it's going to be better. and then you actually go look at what happened on the offensive line last year Christian Mahogany missed six games and he was on the injury report for the last three so he was hurt for like half the season Taylor Decker was literally on the injury report 17 of the 18 weeks last year with his shoulder injury 17 of the 18 weeks and then you just look at you know I can't remember the guy's name I think he's in with the Chargers now but 74 the backup left guard who was playing from Mahogany and then Tristan Cologne had to play more than you wanted him to by you get the time you get to Thanksgiving, you got Ross Dwelly trying to block Rashawn Gary, and you saw the issues that happened with the run game.

17:57Robert Mays: Like, even if they didn't add anybody, just getting the tight ends back and having last year's offensive line healthier, this would have been so much better than it was for a vast majority of last season. When again, they were still a top 10 offense by virtually every single metric. And so I just think the path to them being like a top three to five offense again is so obvious and clear, even if it doesn't happen, that I get why you would land on them being just the safest, most reliable choice to win the division still, even with all the questions on defense. Right.

18:30Dave Helman: Cause it just doesn't feel like they need that many things for them to go right, to get back to where they are. Like again, outside of just like preposterous injury luck, which, you know, has been more of an issue for their defense than their offense. But again, if the offensive line is 10 % healthier and Cade Mays is even a little bit of an upgrade, they go back to a team that is like top five in Russian success rate. Jared Goff is always in comfy down in distances. And then he has four incredible skill players to throw the ball to. Like it's so easy to see the world where they just start printing explosives again.

19:01Derrik Klassen: The one thing that I would bring up that gave me pause when I was looking at the Lions offense. And I love Jameer Gibbs. I know his usage trended up and Montgomery's trended down. I get all that. He's one of the most dynamic running backs in the league. How do you feel about Isaiah Pacheco stepping into that spot? And, I mean, God forbid, hopefully Jameer Gibbs is as healthy as possible. But even as his usage trended up, this was still a team that used David Montgomery plenty over the years, is that I think most people would see that as like a pretty even swap with what we've seen out of Isaiah Pacheco the last year and a half, two years.

19:42Derrik Klassen: I don't know if that's, I don't think that's true. And I hope that doesn't bite them that their depth at running back is, I mean, they used to have the best tandem in the league. I don't think that's the case at all anymore.

19:52Robert Mays: I think that's probably right. I think you are a little bit less consistent. You're a little bit less reliable with Pacheco than you are with David Montgomery. But beyond getting the pick back, like getting Juice Scruggs in that trade, like you look at -

20:02Derrik Klassen: I do love their depth on the offensive line.

20:05Robert Mays: They saw what happened last year and they were like, f*** no. we're not doing this again and i actually appreciate that as like a mindset this offseason though i and then i'm with derrick completely about the skill position players like i joke that like jared goff being 50 paper drop back last year in a year where it was supposed to be a really bad situation is really impressive for jared goff and while i do think that's true and even some of the shortcomings with jared goff like you go look at jared goff's numbers under pressure over the last two years. They're not bad. They're not great, but they're not bad.

20:35Robert Mays: Like the things that we used to say or think about Jared Goff, and there are certain moments in games like that Vikings game where they're just hammering the middle of the line over and over again, and you see him get moved off his spot. He does struggle, but I don't think it's one of those things where you throw water on him and he melts anymore the way that it used to be four or five years ago. I think that he's able to kind of overcome a lot of that stuff, and you combine that with the quality of the skill position talent. And somebody brought this up when we were talking about the Lions and the supporting and Casio, and I think it's a great point.

21:03Robert Mays: Even if the play caller is being swapped out, they still have like a head coach with an offensive background that I think does inform a lot of the ways this offense is going to feel. And I think was a big reason that the offense was able to stay relatively good last year, even with a lot of the injuries. And so I just think there's so many things stacking up for us to believe that this could once again be one of the best offenses in the league, even if we're staring at the secondary and it's making us wake up in a cold sweat.

21:31Derrik Klassen: I mean, the best case scenario for Detroit is the defense proves a bunch of people wrong and they really are this fantastic team. But even a more realistic scenario is just that they're one of the most entertaining teams week in and week out because they're going to score 34 and give up 31. And we'll find out which ones they win and which ones they lose. I'm way down to watch that.

21:50Dave Helman: Are they this year's version of like what the Cowboys and the Bengals have been?

21:53Derrik Klassen: It could be like I could see that being possible. I mean, I do think, you know, between Campbell and Hutchinson and we'll see about some of the young guys. Like, I think this defense has more talent than like specifically. And I also have more some of those other teams.

22:07Robert Mays: I also have more faith in the people in charge. Like the fact that they didn't drive off a cliff last year, even with all the injuries, they were never as bad at any point last year as the Bengals or Cowboys were for a vast majority of the season. And I think that says a lot about what Kelvin Shepard can potentially do if he has the requisite amount of talent. The last thing I want to say about this, and again, this gets back to the, there's a lot of things happening at once. I think it's okay to look at what the Lions are right now and say they could win the NFC North, given some of the questions about all the other teams.

22:39Robert Mays: I do think it's worth pointing out that this roster is not what it was a couple of years ago. And even if they can win the division and might be the justifiable favorite to win the division, stacking up this team with the best teams in the league, you see where the drafting issues over the last couple years have really started to eat away at the depth and overall quality of this roster i just want to go over the last couple drafts for the lions and just what the outcomes of that are so looking at the 2024 draft they drafted taron arnold in the first round he's no longer on the team they drafted ennis rakestraw in the second round he has not played for them at all and doesn't even seem to be in their plans this year as they're getting let me I actually don't know that for a fact five before three drafts an NS race draw in the second round if he's not going to play this year he's never going to play like this is the time when they really would need him and he has not been in their plans so far they drafted Giovanni Giovanni Monte when the fourth round they traded away a future third round pick to go up and get him they traded away a third round pick in that draft to move up for Terry and Arnold the Cowboys use that to draft Cooper Beebe by the way they traded a third round pick in that draft to go get Carlton Davis the year before.

23:50Robert Mays: They traded a 2025 fourth in that draft to draft Sion Vahki in the fourth round. And then we go to the 2025 draft. They traded a fourth to move up three picks in the second round to draft Tate Routledge. And they drafted, they traded two future third round picks for Isaac Tesla. So in the last three drafts, they've made six or seven picks per draft and only seven picks in the top 100. And that 2024 draft right now looks like a complete wash. And you see that. Like when you look at the quality of the roster, you are starting to feel the fact that they have not been able to replenish this thing with guys in those third, fourth rounds in part because they haven't made the right amount of picks.

24:31Robert Mays: But that, Derek, was always going to be a necessary part of the equation here as everyone else that kind of formed the foundation of this team was getting really expensive. You were going to need to start hitting on cheaper guys, and that has not happened over the last couple years.

24:44Dave Helman: Right. I mean, the best parts of this team that were there in 2023 and 2024, those parts are still true in 2026. The difference is that all of the middling and worst parts of the roster have taken either a step or two back because, again, they have not been able to draft the depth. And it's not even just the missing on picks, right? Like even very good organizations and teams are just going to have runs where they just have a couple of years where you just miss. It's all those picks that you're talking about that they traded away to move up in the third round, move up in the fourth round. you know two picks to get isaac tesla all of those picks combined are probably worth like two first round picks like it like the combined value of all the stuff that they're moving so they've lost like that value on top of not being able to hit on hardly any of these players at all maybe some of them like tesla i do think has a chance to be better but like did not give you a whole lot outside of like five outrageous plays as a rookie and so i do think that they are missing like a you use this word a lot a connective tissue to their roster in a way that i do think you need to be a championship team they can win the division with like a kind of fortunate 10 11 win season this is not a team that is going to win 14 15 games the way that they used to be able to

25:53Derrik Klassen: the quality of tesla's plays last year gives me i i would say irrational confidence like that doesn't bother me because i just i think he could be really good he could be good but it might not

26:04Robert Mays: justify it but so many of these guys you need them to be good yeah because of what you paid to get them and that just hasn't been happening at the same rate it was a couple years ago which is why

26:13Derrik Klassen: I think the framing is so important. I don't view the Lions as the slam dunk Super Bowl favorite that I have for the last two or so years, but I do think it makes sense that betting markets see them as the favorites in the NFC North. And another thing I want to throw in, typically I hate doing shit like this, especially it's not even, training camp's not even open yet. But if we're talking about predicting the division champion, look at the scheduling draws for these teams. They're playing a last place schedule. That's three games in essence, right? Like there's three opponents that change because of where you finish.

26:52Derrik Klassen: As a result of finishing fourth, the Lions get to play the Giants, Cardinals, and Titans. And then look at what the Bears and the Packers draw. The Bears have to play the Eagles, Jaguars, and Seahawks. The Packers have to play the Cowboys, Texans, and Rams. So like if you're trying to make a bet about who's going to win the division, And obviously things are going to change and some of that shit's not going to play out the way we think. But if I'm trying to come up with a prediction two months before the season even starts, stuff like that matters to me. And so in totality, I'm just like, yeah, I didn't expect to like the picture with the Lions as much as I do.

27:28Derrik Klassen: But in a very flawed division, it makes sense.

27:30Robert Mays: I think we can overstate schedule stuff in the offseason before we actually know how good teams are and what the season is going to feel like. I would still rather play the Titans than the Seahawks.

27:39Derrik Klassen: Yes. But yeah, yes.

27:44Derrik Klassen: I'd rather play the Cardinals than the Rams or the Texans. Yes.

27:48Robert Mays: So I think we're all kind of in agreement about what the answer to that lingering question feels like, even in what was a down year where they finished last in the division, even though they were nine and eight and tied for third place in the division. We still think that the performance we saw from the Lions last year is enough to justify them being the favorite right now to win the NFC North. And I, I don't know. I'm kind of on where you are. I don't know if I, I thought I was going to land there. I did not expect to be there. It's kind of why I wanted to ask the question, but I do think that's where we ended up.

28:16Robert Mays: All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about another team that fell off in the back half of last season.

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30:02Derrik Klassen: Tune in for conversations with business leaders leveraging disruption to stay ahead.

30:13Robert Mays: So when we were originally building the lingering questions list, this is one that it's maybe the truest one we're going to do to the spirit of the exercise. what happened really to the Indianapolis Colts in the back half of last year before Daniel Jones got hurt. So when we're looking at the just complete falling off of a cliff from the Colts last year, how much of this was a product of Daniel Jones getting hurt and how much of this was already starting to take shape before he was lost for the season? So, Dave, your lingering question, how much of the Colts' downturn last year was a product of Daniel Jones's injury and how much was a part of stuff that was

30:59Derrik Klassen: already starting to bubble up I think it's fair to point out that I don't think the Colts drop would have been as precipitous if Daniel Jones got hurt because remember they didn't win another game after that Germany game against Atlanta like they were eight and two and they did not win again Daniel Jones gets hurt initially. They lose an overtime to the Chiefs. And then he tears his Achilles against the Jaguars and all hell breaks loose. And Philip Rivers plays like I don't think the Colts would have gone from eight and two to eight and nine if Daniel Jones hadn't gotten hurt.

31:34Robert Mays: Sure.

31:35Derrik Klassen: Do I think they would have remained one of the hottest teams in the NFL and potentially the number one seed in the AFC playoffs? I don't. And if you go back and look at this and you look at what the Colts were doing leading up to the bye week and leading up to the injury, you can already start to see the decline. I mean, you can just see it watching Colts games. I remember the Steelers game was just a slap in the face after how hot their season started, the way that the Steelers managed to pressure Daniel Jones and get takeaways made him look incredibly uncomfortable in the pocket. Even the Falcons game, which they wound up winning.

32:13Derrik Klassen: I think they sacked him seven times in that game. He fumbled three times.

32:17Robert Mays: He fumbled three times. They actually moved the ball really well for a vast majority of that game. I honestly think that's one of my favorite random games from last season. Incredibly entertaining, weird as hell game that was on 830 in the morning. I kind of think that game in a lot of ways is indicative of the conversation that we're having. where the offense down to down was actually still very good. And like they had like a 52 % success rate in that game, but on multiple different levels, it was maddening. Like the putting the ball on the ground, the I think they had two turnovers on downs and opposing territory during that game.

32:54Robert Mays: Like that, that to me really does speak to the conversation at hand here. Where I land on this is that they were not as good as they were over the first eight weeks of the season, but they were still a pretty good offense that was shooting itself in the foot a little bit too often the question I think that we have to answer is when Daniel Jones is your quarterback even at his best are you just guaranteed to be shooting yourself in the foot semi-often I you know maybe

33:23Dave Helman: not as much as those two games because it was I mean like three picks and like six fumbles over the course of those couple of games which like that's probably extreme even for a player like Daniel Jones, but I do think the first eight weeks of the season, he was running hot in a way that he's never going to run hot again. Like it just it's if you compare it to any of his career numbers, it's crazy. So the first eight weeks of the season, he had a 9.8 pressure to sack rate, which is not only the fourth best rate since 2019, which he came in the league, but is about half of his career rate at 19.8.

33:55Dave Helman: So he was playing in a completely different realm in that way his epa per drop back while getting hit which like obviously every quarterback is going to be awful so it was uh negative 0.38 epa per play which is bad obviously in a vacuum but was tied with patrick mahomes this year as a top five rate since 2019 and he had a career rate of negative 0.91 epa per drop back when hit like he was just getting away with things in a way that he's never really gotten away from them before. And I think that some of it is real. I actually do think he got pretty good at like, he could stare down the barrel of the gun and make some tough throws.

34:32Dave Helman: And I do think he got good at that. And I do think his pocket movement actually in Indianapolis was better than I'd ever seen it in New York. Like there were some moments where it was like, man, he did really feel that guard pressure and take a couple of steps out and go make a throw outside of the pocket. I still think that he was getting away with that at a rate that is outside of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. I just don't think that Daniel Jones has shown the capacity to consistently play at that level and run that hot like that.

34:58Derrik Klassen: That's the thing for me is if you pull up the splits, and it's admittedly not as big of a sample size as you would prefer, especially since we know he was dealing with an injury during the Chiefs loss. But weeks 9 to 12, pick any metric you want, like EPA per dropback, adjusted EPA per play, success rate, completion percentage over expectation. He's like middle of the pack at all of it. Like he's definitely not bad. it's just it's a lot of normal numbers and then compare that to weeks one through eight and it's best in the league at freaking everything or like at least top three i mean it it's just a stark contrast that even though he wasn't always playing poorly in that final month before he went out for the year it just i don't think it's realistic to think that he can consistently play at the level he was at over the first two months of last season just based on what we know

35:50Robert Mays: about him as a player it would be impossible like they were historically consistent and efficient offense during that stretch i think the question is going to be where do they land and a couple of the other ones that i wanted to point out derrick hinted a couple of them so in weeks 9 through 13 after leading the league in total epa when pressured over the first eight weeks he was 30th in weeks 9 through 13 and 9 through 13 in epa per drop back when pressured i mean the steelers game is doing a lot of lifting there because he's turned the ball over so often but he was still 20th in success rate compared to being top 10 in the first eight weeks of the season.

36:23Robert Mays: As an offense overall, there are a lot of areas where they were running really hot. And then as we got into that month long stretch, even before he got hurt, it just wasn't quite as good. Two things that really jumped out to me. So they were 26th in third down conversion rate in the NFL weeks nine through 13. They were fourth in weeks one through eight, went from 45 % to about 32.5%. They were still ninth in early down success rate in weeks nine through 13. If you look at what they were doing in a couple stretches of the field, and this one really jumped out to me when I was going back and rewatching these games.

36:58Robert Mays: In weeks nine through 13, so that bad stretch before he gets hurt, they still had a 52.5 % success rate from their goal line to the opponent's 40-yard line. From the opponent's 40-yard line and in, it was 37.5%. So you go from top three to 26th when you cross the opponent's 40. In the red zone, they scored on 100 % of their red zone drives in weeks one through eight. It was about league average in weeks nine through 13. So what do you do with all this, right? If you fall back to earth to the middle of the pack in this month-long stretch and you were historically good in the first eight weeks of the season, do we land in the middle of those two things?

37:41Robert Mays: is the first eight weeks of Mirage and that four weeks is more realistic because I do think, Derek, there are a lot of underlying numbers that point to the fact that even if he's not going to run that hot, as an offense, they were still very efficient and just weren't quite as lucky in areas that are volatile during that four-week stretch and probably could be a little bit luckier in those spots if he had continued to stay healthy. So I don't really know what to do with all of this. Like, I still think I leave this with some overall optimism for what they'd be if he were healthy. And I think that's a conversation for another day as we kind of look forward to the season.

38:18Dave Helman: Right. I think we can have the health conversation whenever that gets closer and we have a little bit of a better picture. I do think one thing that we can actually talk about with how replicable what they did last year was, even when they were running really hot, compared to what they're going to be this year. The wide receiver core, I think, has a lot more questions than it did going into last year. Like, obviously, you still have Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, but Downs is going to have to play a more outsized role than he did last year. And he he played pretty well last year, but it was a very specific slot primary role.

38:49Dave Helman: It was a lot of like spot routes. It was a lot of whip routes. It was a lot of them scheming him open against man coverage, which I do think Shane Seiken actually really kicks ass at, by the way. Like, go watch the Denver game and watch how many times they're just getting like wide open guys against man coverage. I think he did a really good job of that.

39:05Robert Mays: I think you could make an argument that maybe I think Kyle Shanahan is in this conversation. I think Sykin is in a short list of guys that has the best handle on what his personnel does well and how to situationally put those guys in the best possible spots. Like if you look at the ways that they use Tyler Warren, they use Josh Downs, they use Alec Pierce, they use Michael Pittman. It's not just that those guys collectively have a lot of talent. It's that he knows exactly how to circle one guy on the defense that and exploit them with that guy's specific skill set as a receiver. It's actually kind of remarkable.

39:41Dave Helman: So I agree with that. But that actually leads me to my next point. Can you do that as well without Michael Pittman? Michael Pittman is the most like nobody gives a shit about how good he was like type of backbone player. because while we talk about like how well they used Alec Pearson, how well they used Tyler Warren and Josh Downs, that is all kind of made possible by how well Michael Pittman just does a lot of things well for them. And he was the guy they could funnel targets to. He was the guy who could run a lot of those 1 to 15 like isolated routes. Like, hey, I just need to pin this ball on the guy and I don't have to scheme him open.

40:15Dave Helman: He's just going to be able to win for me. Whereas Pierce was a little bit more of a role player. Downs was a little bit more of a role player. um and so i do think like taking him out that hurts i also think the depth at wide receiver is different now like last year they went into the into the year with josh downs and um ad Mitchell being there three and four which you know ad Mitchell that's a whole thing but he had some flashes for them and you wait until we get the ad Mitchell breakout this year and you're waiting for that i by the way i forgot how impressive the the rams like a drop touchdown thing he does like the play he makes to get there is actually crazy right up until the end yes you forget how good it is because of obviously how he uh botches it uh but it's like 60 40

41:02Robert Mays: my still having a candle lip for ad mitchell like bit versus reality i think it's like 60

41:07Derrik Klassen: bit but i think it's still 40 reality i think it's it's good podcasting to just lean into the

41:13Robert Mays: bit like be the ad mitchell guy i i still kind of believe and he's gonna get chances this year Like he's going to get opportunities to actually play this year.

41:20Dave Helman: He's not getting blocked. He's not getting, you know, yeah, blocked opportunities over there. But again, I do think Josh Downs and A.D. Mitchell being your three and four compared to going into this year, their three and four are Nick Westbrook, Akine, and I don't know, Deion Burks, a seventh round pick. Ashton Doolin, who's been like their fifth receiver for a long time. I do think the depth that they're picking at is a lot different than it was last year.

41:45Derrik Klassen: Thank you for standing up for Michael Pittman Jr., Derek. I think he's such an underrated player, and I understand why, but just my, like, snapshot memories of the Colts last year, other than Jonathan Taylor just being an absurd player, are Michael Pittman making, like, the routine catches that you have to make to, like, keep an offense on track. Like, I think he was such a big part of what made it all tick. And it's not to say Alec Pierce can't be better in a bigger role or that Josh Downs can't step up anybody else. But it just worked so well. And I'm definitely I'm not willing to just assume it's going to work in harmony quite as well as it did with all of those pieces.

42:30Derrik Klassen: And not to harp on what's done, because what's the point? But it's so wild that they were so bought in on what they saw that they did what they did and traded for Sauce Gardner. and I mean it's what who could they have drafted to help offset the losses on offense if they had those picks or if you didn't have sauces contract on the books could you afford Pittman and Pierce together like is that something you could consider and then you draft defense because your offense is set for the foreseeable future there's plenty of ways they could have done this and that's not to say sauce Gardner is not a good player but it's just it was a wild amount of confidence based on not a huge sample size of success.

43:14Robert Mays: Even if you're trying to spin this optimistically and you're looking at the, let's just say it hypothetically, the group of receivers is about as good as it was last year, even without Michael Pittman. And I think that's a question, like Derek just said, but let's just assume that's true. I still feel like when you go back and look at the tape of those four weeks and the numbers from those four weeks, this offense is probably realistically more like the eighth to 10th best offense in the league when things are going right versus the best offense in the league like they were over the first eight weeks of the season.

43:43Robert Mays: And if that's the case, if you're like the ninth best offense in the league, the sauce Gardner trade becomes much more difficult to justify. And then you look at the defense and they still have a ton of questions. Like they didn't get Trey Hendrickson in free agency the way that they wanted. They still don't have enough oomph in the front seven to really be a great defense. So if you got a league average defense and the ninth best offense in the league, what are you? and I think that's kind of where I land at the end of this is that you did see them kind of drifting into that sort of range offensively during that four-week stretch even before he got hurt and it once again leaves this team in a frustrating no-man's land I want to ask the both

44:25Dave Helman: of you over that nine to 13 uh week stretch what of their downturn felt the most real to you like not just like you know Daniel Jones being injured but like what part of it felt the most like Like, yeah, that really is like the true colors of the offense kind of showing their head.

44:42Robert Mays: That's really the only one I would land on because I think, again, down to down, they were pretty good and just a little bit unlucky. Like, the most frustrating thing to me was this. I mean, you look, go back and watch the Chiefs game, right? Chiefs game is a perfect example. It's a hold on Braden Smith. It's a false start on fourth and one. Like, I do think that a lot of their issues beyond some of the turnovers and some of the volatility stuff under pressure was just like situational mistakes and like just being a little bit more frustrating than I wanted them to be. So I think for the most part, my answer lands with the quarterback just being not as good in those situations as he was.

45:22Robert Mays: The run game is one area you can kind of point to. Like that's another area where over the first eight weeks, Jonathan Taylor averaged 0.35 EPA

45:30Dave Helman: per carry on under center runs that's like an MVP quarterback that's just never gonna happen

45:35Robert Mays: and so I think that's another area where it fell back to earth a little bit but I don't think there's anything any one specific thing I think everything was just like 80 as good as it was over the first eight weeks and the quarterback play was really the biggest difference yeah I something similar for me like I said earlier just the numbers were so good the performance was so

45:57Derrik Klassen: good that it was just striking when it fell back down to earth. I mean, even over that, over that month long stretch before he went out, he was 31st in the league in EPA per drop back against the Blitz. He was top five before that. And like that, when you don't have that anymore, it just becomes a striking difference. Like when your quarterback is not consistently solving those puzzles that the other team is throwing at you. And especially after you kind of like eight games is enough to kind of get used to it. And then when it goes away, it's pretty stark to see in real time.

46:32Robert Mays: If he is healthy this year and he can play close to the level we saw even over that four week stretch. Again, I'm open to the idea that this can be like the seventh best offense in the league. Like I do think that that's possible based on what we saw last year. but I think it's a noticeable step down from what it was over the first eight weeks even when he was still healthy during that final month before he was out for the year I think that's where I'm at

46:58Dave Helman: I think there's a world where I can see that it pieces together and they're a nice offense again I think if I were a betting man I would not bet on them to finish top 10 in DVOA or EPA per player

47:08Derrik Klassen: or whatever the metric is going to be Achilles is just so high on the list of injuries that scare me And I hope he plays like nothing ever happened, but it's hard for me to just assume that right now.

47:23Robert Mays: Speaking of injured quarterbacks, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back and chat about Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

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48:59Dave Helman: If you're going to do a transformation and reimagine your process, you have to say, okay, what are we going to get?

49:05Derrik Klassen: Tune in for conversations with business leaders leveraging disruption to stay ahead.

49:16Robert Mays: last lingering question for today is a pretty simple one do the kansas city chiefs still deserve the benefit of the doubt let me can i that's i'm asking you right now do the kansas

49:27Derrik Klassen: city chiefs still deserve the benefit of the doubt i will accept this as a not thinly veiled shot at me and that's not even what it was but that's you can take it that way if you wanted to That is okay. I would just point out before I, before I answer the question, it's okay that we rode the SS chiefs all the way into the waves last year. Like it's, it's okay from 20, it won't be again from 2018 to 2024. They won 80 % of their games and reached five Superbowls and they played in every AFC title game along the way. It's okay that we waited until it was over to, to jump off. I won't apologize for that.

50:05Derrik Klassen: having said that now that it's happened and like they didn't just you know it's not just like they were a wild card and they gave up the division but they were still a good team they were a bad team and now Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an injury they're revamping the defense and we can get into what the offense is I mean there are some elements of the offense that I'm excited about but for the most part it doesn't feel like enough considering how little I've enjoyed watching the Chiefs on offense over the last couple years that I think I think the answer is no we don't have to give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt and that's without even including the fact superhuman though he is and like the reports coming out about Mahomes's recovery are insane to me like he's gonna be ready to go like by training camp I that God bless him that's amazing he's he's maybe not human but like I still have to factor that in and say even if even if you're the goat or the best active quarterback I still have to account for that and say all right well let's let's wait and see and so my short answer is is no I don't think we have to give them benefit of doubt this year

51:17Dave Helman: Derek so I think two things can be true I I think we do not necessarily have to give them the benefit of the doubt I already talked on the supporting cast show that like with Andy Reid specifically, I'm like, can still be a good coach, but I'm not putting him up there with like Kyle Shannon and all that stuff again. I do think the defensive roster is better. And I think they have a chance to be pretty good because I still have a lot of faith in Steve Spagnuolo. And the quarterback is still Patrick Mahomes. And again, he's coming off injury, but if he's 90 % of what Patrick Mahomes is, that is still a top five quarterback in the NFL.

51:49Dave Helman: And I'm willing to give those things the benefit of the doubt. So I think, I think benefit of the doubt, if we're going to do like, I trust this team no matter what to win 12 and 13 games and be the first or second seed. That's probably a little bit of a stretch. Do I have the benefit of the doubt that they will definitely like that they will not definitely be better, but will be have to be have a better showing than they did last year? Yes, I will give them the benefit of the doubt for that.

52:15Derrik Klassen: Actually, that's so fair, Derek, and good on you for framing it that way. What it like what does that mean like benefit of the doubt that you're still the chiefs and we can just pencil you into the afc title game no and that's where i draw the line but i will give the chiefs the benefit of the doubt that they'll be they'll be a good team this year and then they will matter in the afc west race like i will give the bar is higher yeah the bar we're talking about here is higher than that's why i initially said no i don't think we can give the chiefs the let's just assume the AFC title game will be at Arrowhead benefit of the doubt.

52:51Derrik Klassen: I do still think there'll be a good team.

52:53Robert Mays: I don't even really, I'm not really thinking that much about the defense because I'm essentially with Derek about the defense. The defensive personnel is going to be better. I think the defense will at least be pretty good this year. It'll be an above average group. Like I,

53:05Derrik Klassen: I'm not saying you're wrong, but it is a wild. It's wild to hear that. It'll definitively be better when you're all pro corner was traded away and you let the other one walk as well. And I know, like, I know they drafted a lot of guys, I know they've spent money on the defense, but to just say it's definitely better losing your cornerbacks is interesting to me.

53:26Robert Mays: I just think that the firepower they now have and like the pop that they now have with the guys that they drafted, I'm, let's just say this, I'm optimistic about it. Okay, that's where I'm at. I am optimistic about the general trajectory of the defense and the potential step forward that they can take. I focused most of my attention and energy on the offense here, and I really just don't know what to make of it because when I went back and I watched, I watched a couple games from just the middle of last season and when Mahomes was still healthy. And when you go back and you watch, it's not as ugly as you remember it being.

54:00Robert Mays: Like there are still elements of the offense that are really good. And to me, that always jumps out when you're just watching them play against man coverage or when you're watching them play against zone coverage. When teams play zone coverage against the Chiefs, they still feel really dangerous. And beyond what the quarterback can do, I think what the structure of the offense can do when exploiting and attacking space, I think they're really good at that. I think they're really good at, you know, it's a motion here, it's a motion there. Like we know exactly how to stretch you in those zone coverages and exactly how to attack you in those zone coverages.

54:37Robert Mays: When you look at it, they were fifth in explosive pass rate versus zone coverage last year. So all of our conversations about the Chiefs and a lack of explosiveness, all of that, they were fifth in explosive pass rate. And the problem is when you get into some of these other aspects that I just don't know if they're going to be any better. Like when you look at the numbers against Mann last year and even certain other things, like my favorite stuff the Chiefs did last year, when you watch them like throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field, especially against zone coverage, they were very explosive and really dynamic throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field last year they just don't do it very much and even when you look at this receiving group who is that guy who is that guy that you want to be throwing the ball to in the intermediate area of the field like on a deep crosser is Xavier worthy that guy because that's what I want to see like I wish this team like we can talk about the under center stuff and the play action whether They should be doing more of it.

55:39Robert Mays: I don't know how much faith I have in them really revamping all that stuff. But even if they wanted to be like more of a gun-based offense and live that way, I still think when you go back and you watch teams like the Lions and some of the stuff that they do, throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field, even from the gun, like all of those dagger variations out of the gun that the Lions run, I would like to see the Chiefs do more of that stuff because I actually think that's where Mahomes is best. I think when you watch him throw the ball in the intermediate area of the field, that's where he's best.

56:11Robert Mays: But let's just say they're running dagger out of the gun, Derek. Who's running the dig?

56:17Dave Helman: Like, I guess Tyquan Thornton, which I don't feel great about. Are you going to ask Jalen Royals to do it? Like, I don't feel very good about that either. And the problem, and I said this on the supporting cast show, it used to be Travis Kelsey, not running the dig, but like being your intermediate middle player. Like all those deep sit routes that he would run, the crossers, like him just finding space, all their creativity. That has been gone for two years. And I think you felt like the impact of him only getting older and older and his average depth of target only getting shorter and shorter.

56:48Dave Helman: Because that's really all that he's capable of at this stage in his career.

56:52Derrik Klassen: It's really interesting to look at the Chiefs offseason. And I can't come to a conclusion. I'm with you. I'm really, I'm mainly focused on the offense. Like I, I will absolutely give Spags the benefit of the doubt that with what they've invested on that side of the ball and his pedigree, I'm really not, I'm not sweating the defense too much, but offensively. And I came to a similar conclusion as you like if I even just said, I haven't had a lot of fun watching the Chiefs the last couple of years. They're like perfectly decent at almost everything.

57:25Robert Mays: Like the advanced numbers are all very good. They're all fine.

57:28Derrik Klassen: They're all perfectly good. like 12th to 15th or better in most categories. But having said that, it just, I come to the conclusion, they just feel like if they can bring an explosive element back to their run game, that everything will be fine. And I don't know. I don't agree. I don't know if I believe that. And it's striking to think that drafting a receiver on day three is the only addition they made to their pass catchers. And they brought back Taequann Thornton, but he was obviously there last year. I just, I have a hard time getting excited about it. And maybe some of that is because Rasheed Rice is just a chore to follow at this point in his NFL career.

58:11Derrik Klassen: Do you know the other sneaky part of this?

58:12Robert Mays: He didn't play well last year. And the offense wasn't that good when he played. But I was looking at some of the numbers and so the Chiefs overall last year were 21st in explosive pass rate per TrueMedia over the course of the entire season. And you combine that with a complete inability to be explosive on the ground, you get the 26th most explosive offense in the league period. When rice was on the field, that rate, the explosive pass rate would have been 31st in the league. Wow. So it was kind of shocking. He wasn't playing. And so I just, I just don't know what the pathways are with this receiving core to consistently be explosive in the ways that I think the quarterback allows you to be consistently explosive.

58:51Robert Mays: Like they struggled to push the ball down the field. Cause that's not what he does. Well, he has not been a good deep passer. recently, just period. The accuracy has not been good. He has not been a very good deep passer recently. And this team throws the ball behind the line of scrimmage more than any team in the league. Who on your team is going to be turning those plays into explosives? Like, I guess Rasheed Rice showed an ability to do that two years ago, but he's not really inherently that explosive of a player. So if you're going to be a team that dinks and dunks all the time and you struggle to throw the ball downfield and you know, you have no real receiving options that make you dynamic in the intermediate area, where are we solving problems?

59:31Dave Helman: We're not, which I honestly, I think does speak to how incredible Patrick Mahomes is. The fact that they've been able to piece together offense while all of those things are true. I think I am more bullish on explosive run game, fixing some of their problems, not fixing them to the degree that they will be like the fourth best offense in the league. But this was an offensive line and run game that was efficient. like their success rate was like a little bit above average like they they could move people and get their four yards the problem is isaiah pacheco but one was never that explosive of a player but like especially last year like dave was talking about when we were talking about the lions just had no giddy up once he got to the open field kenneth walker if he gives you one more of those a game i think just being able to like flip the field a little bit and immediately flip and get into gear of like okay we go from like r40 directly into like enemy shot play territory i do think like putting defenses on the heels that way with a quarterback like patrick mahomes does

1:00:28Derrik Klassen: does kind of go a long way for me that's the conclusion i came to as well where it sounds like a little thing and maybe it would be for other teams but if you can make that much if you can make life that much easier on patrick mahomes it could make all the difference in the world i I mean, they were bottom 10 in rushes of 10-plus yards last year. And then the one that I thought was really funny, they had three rushes of 20-plus yards last year. Mahomes had them all? Mahomes had one, and Worthy had another. They had one run of 20-plus yards by a running back last year.

1:00:59Robert Mays: I don't think those running backs are physically capable of running 20 yards at one time.

1:01:02Derrik Klassen: But Kenneth Walker can. And even, I think, Imari DiMarcado's legacy at this point in his NFL career is dropping that ball in the Arizona-Tennessee game last year. but he actually had a 20.5 % explosive run rate last year, which is a small sample size, but when you're the Kansas City Chiefs, you'll take whatever you can get, and then obviously you add a rookie to the mix. If you can up those numbers and make teams respect that you have a running back that can hurt them, then maybe this receiver core is good enough. And I don't think I would buy that if Patrick Mahomes wasn't the quarterback, but he is.

1:01:37Robert Mays: I think that having, being more explosive on the ground is going to go a long way. And I think that will do some lifting. I totally agree with that. And I'm curious what the structure of the run game will look like. That's one of my biggest questions. Do they get under center more than they did over the last couple years? Is that one of the solutions that we see from them? They were fourth in the NFL last year at EPA per rush on under center running back runs. The only teams ahead of them were the Colts, the Bears, and the Rams. And I wonder, like, Eric Biennemi being on that Bears staff last year, do we see some of those ideas sprinkled into what the Chiefs are?

1:02:10Robert Mays: because I think them getting under center a little bit more, committing to running the ball under center a little bit more, and then trying to find some intermediate completions and explosives off of play action is a way that you can start accessing that area of the field a little bit more. Even if they're a little bit more explosive on the ground, I still have my concerns about the structure of the passing game. Against man coverage is the number one thing, but the number that jumped out to me, like it just was staggering when I looked at this. So in number of attempts in under two and a half seconds, The Chiefs had the fourth most in the league last year.

1:02:42Robert Mays: Just think anecdotally about what watching that offense is. He's catching the ball out of the gun. Boom, gone. Boom, gone. Boom, gone. He sees so much stuff pre-snap. They're getting the burn of the ball so fast consistently out of that gun-based approach. It's always what they've been. So they were fourth in the number of attempts under two and a half seconds. They were 26th in the number of completions that went for 20-plus yards on those plays. Fourth in attempts, 26 in completions of 20 plus on quick throws. They had nine. The Lions had 26.

1:03:15Dave Helman: I was going to guess that's got to be the team that's number one. Jared Goff has 26. He's very well off those. That's insane. That is the most like we're just getting by style of offense to be.

1:03:26Robert Mays: And how does that change? Even if we are going to concede that Kenneth Walker can really transform what the run game feels like. And I trust me as somebody who is weighing holding on to Kenneth Walker in my dynasty League because of this. I'm really hoping that that ends up coming to fruition. I still have real questions about what this passing game can look like if the structure doesn't change, because guess what? The personnel sure didn't change. So what is going to feel different about this group in order for us to get beyond some of the frustrations that we have begun to feel and how boxed in this thing had really started to feel last year?

1:04:01Robert Mays: I don't have an answer to that, that I find satisfactory.

1:04:04Dave Helman: I don't either. Like the wide receiver talent is to me, I mean I've been saying it for two years now the way that this wide receiver room is built like again I guess you're hoping that one of these young players takes a step but until I see that I'm not going to bet on a fourth round pick from last year and a fifth round pick from this year really doing a whole lot for you I think it really does just have to come down to Kenneth Walker being explosive and I actually really like the point of what you say with them potentially being a little bit more of like an under center I think in my mind almost more of like a two-back offense like Noah Gray the best way to use him is a movable piece as a blocker you do not want him like as your why just like kicking out like that's not really what he does you want to think of him more of like a Sam Laporta type of piece where he can move around for you be a fullback be an H be a wing I do think that could help them if they like really leaned into that a little more you you

1:04:52Robert Mays: bought at this point though Derek the fact that they don't have that guy and they didn't add that guy how much can you really be that sort of run game without that skill set within the offense And so I just still have my concerns about how they move beyond some of those things that really started to weigh them down over the last couple of years. The last number that I'll throw out overall last year with Mahomes, the Chiefs averaged 6.3, 6.73 plays per drive. This is how we get to the advanced numbers being really good, by the way. They string drives together. Like they do move the ball consistently.

1:05:25Robert Mays: They converted more fourth downs than I think any team in the league last year. Like they are getting new sets of downs. The problem is that's all they're getting. So they averaged 6.73 plays per drive with Mahomes last year. There is a bigger gap between them and the Chargers at number two than there was between the Chargers and the Rams at number 15.

1:05:47Dave Helman: That's insane, actually. Maybe that's why they felt so gross, too. It's like they're just holding onto the ball forever. They're just sitting on it because they don't have explosives.

1:05:55Robert Mays: The quarterback is so good at manufacturing completions and first downs but they don't get explosive plays. Their scoring drives last year were about nine plays long, 8.93. The only team, and this actually makes sense stylistic when you think about it, that had more plays per scoring drive last year was the Panthers.

1:06:15Dave Helman: Oh, another just rock fight slop. Correct response.

1:06:20Derrik Klassen: That's like horseshoe theory almost, you know, where, well, or it should be anyway, based on what the Chiefs have been capable of. But yeah, that's who they've been. Like they're always going to be efficient with Patrick Mahomes operating at the level that he's been on. But they just they have not had the juice. I hope Kenneth Walker can change that. But yes, like in my mind, a quintessential Chiefs drive is like 11 plays. Longest gain is seven yards and good chance it ends in a field goal attempt.

1:06:53Robert Mays: And if you have, I mean, when they had offensive linemen, they were consistently getting penalized. you're just asking for trouble. Like if you're going to have to go 10 plays every time you want to score and you have an offense that's going to shoot itself in the foot pretty consistently, you're just always going to be in a bad way, even again, if the underlying advanced numbers look pretty good. And so where I land with this is I have inherent faith in the quarterback. I really do. But I'm in a spot where you got to show me. Like I'll believe it when I see it with this team and like what I should reasonably expect from the offense because going back and looking at all these numbers, going back and watching those games, there are undeniable moments of excitement.

1:07:33Robert Mays: Like, I do think that, again, when they are playing, it's a team that plays a lot of zone, and you watch them exploit certain areas of the field, they can do it, but there are just too many dead ends. There are too many dead ends with how the offense was constructed last year and how the offense wanted to play last year, and you need to show me that you can find your way out of the cul-de-sac here because right now I'm not totally sure they can.

1:07:58Derrik Klassen: but again like when you're framing those expectations you're you're talking about like to be the those chiefs to be the offense you should be with patrick mahomes as your

1:08:08Dave Helman: quarterback yeah fair yeah i'm probably ship has sailed on that front and i honestly wonder how much i would mean if the ship has sailed what are we doing here well because i still because if we're saying like again i giving them the benefit of the doubt to be the fifth best offense. No, despite all of all of what we just talked about, they were still an above average offense last year. And I think they added talent. I do think that they will be a good offense. And I know this is mostly about the offense. I do think there's a chance that the defense is better and like not even just better, but more spagsy in the sense of like, maybe they're a little bit boomer bust, but they are creating turnovers and creating negative plays that gives their offense more good opportunities which i do think like leans into the way that this team wants to play football so i i do not think this team is going to win 13 games can they win 11 games and still be like the fifth seed in the afc i i would probably bet on that yeah i just can't wait until

1:09:10Robert Mays: it's thanksgiving and the chiefs are sixth in epa per play and sixth in offensive dvoa and i hate

1:09:16Derrik Klassen: watching them play it's gonna happen for the third year in a row i was gonna say that's been the story for a minute at this point but that's it's interesting to think about because the totality of the Chiefs is a team that should win 10 plus games and be in the playoff mix like offense defense all of it Andy Reid Patrick Mahomes but like yeah to your point what is what does that mean when we've seen the highs that the Chiefs are capable of like if they're a run-of-the-mill 10 and 7 team that's not always fun to watch like who gives a shit about that I want to see

1:09:51Robert Mays: 50 touchdowns if that if he that guy is your quarterback and he's still as good as we seem to think he is and it's an interesting place we've reached with the discussion of him and Josh Allen and Lamar and where he ranks in the overall hierarchy and I think you could make a serious argument that Lamar and Josh Allen have played better than him over the last couple years I'm willing to hear that argument because I do think that his game has been just a little bit shakier than it was with him at his best. But again, I think the offense and how they're trying to play offense goes a long way in making it feel that way.

1:10:26Robert Mays: Like playing, obviously the offenses are structurally different, but playing in the gun 80, 85 % of the time, whatever you're going to do, is a lot easier when you have Jamar Chase and T. Higgins than it is when you have the receivers that the Chiefs do. And so I think that what you're putting on the quarterback with the way that the Chiefs offense is structured is an untenable way to live, given what is around the quarterback. I'm not saying he is completely absolved from blame, but I think that you're asking so much from him just based on the way that you play. It's almost impossible for him to make good on that with how you're structuring the offense.

1:11:04Robert Mays: It's much easier to do that when you just have aliens. Like, I'm fine with the Bengals wanting to play that way because they have the receivers to justify it. The Chiefs do not. And so, yeah, has he played worse over the last couple years than he was playing at his best? Absolutely. But I still think that in the right circumstances, even with a little bit more help and a little bit more off of his plate, he can still be the best quarterback in the NFL pretty easily.

1:11:29Dave Helman: I do too. Like, I still think, even for as shaky as some of it has been, I still think he has some of the best shot selection I've, not even just in the league now, but that I've ever seen. Like, it is truly up there with like Brady and Breeze just in terms of him knowing what throws he's got to make. And again, I think that's, it's almost like that's why the offense looks shaky instead of bad is like he's lifting it up to that level of only being shaky instead of it probably being bad for all but like I think even for as good as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are I do not think this offense would have the floor that it has with either of those two players because I do think Patrick Mahomes' shot selection is that special and that like connective to the way that they do things I also think when you

1:12:09Robert Mays: watched him last year he was pressing he needed to yeah yeah that's right or or what were they going to do he was pressing he needed to even going back I watched the Lions game this morning the Lions game we remember is this really impressive win for the Chiefs they were they scored 30 points in that game the amount of plays that were explosives because he's finding something late in the down where he's having to create and make a second reaction play the offense wasn't some like unstoppable machine in that game like it we remember even good games even in good games I think it's important to like reframe what is being asked of the quarterback and just how not smooth it feels like there is friction even in games where they're scoring 30 points that there just aren't there just isn't in with some of these offenses that are just taking are taking more off the quarterback and just making a little bit easier on everybody there is nothing easy happening here And so even if he has played a little bit worse, I think that there's a very clear line to draw between how for how that's happening.

1:13:10Robert Mays: I guess that's where I land with this.

1:13:11Derrik Klassen: Every Chiefs box score is so disgusting. Like Patrick Mahomes, two yard rush. Rasheed Rice, three yard rush. Xavier Worthy, three yard touchdown catch. Travis Kelsey.

1:13:22Robert Mays: Ten plays to get there. Eight yard touchdown catch.

1:13:24Derrik Klassen: Like all of all of their touchdowns are from inside the 10 yard line. And yeah, that's, I, I, I hope that is something that can change this year, whether it's Kenneth Walker or another reason.

1:13:35Robert Mays: I hope we get like three 50 yard Kenneth Walker touchdowns. It'd be a great place to live. If you're a football watcher and a sheep's fan. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back a little bit later this week. Tomorrow is another way of saying that we'll be back tomorrow with our buddy, Aaron shots from FTN fantasy. We're going to be chatting a little bit about some of the nuggets from this years, I was almost going to call it the Football Outsiders Almanac, the FTN Almanac, which has been a very important resource for me going back almost 20 years now? Probably has been 20 years.

1:14:11Robert Mays: I think the first one I had was the 2008 Football Outsiders Almanac. It was the one with Nnamdi Asimba on the cover. Our producer Katie was...

1:14:18Derrik Klassen: What a moment in time. Closer to 20 years than I would want to admit.

1:14:22Robert Mays: I used to have the physical copies. I remember my first year at Grantland, I printed it out in the ESPN offices.

1:14:28Dave Helman: so it was like 400 pages god that cost you what i mean well yeah fair enough i was in the office i want to know what that cost that's that's as someone who worked on the almanacs for like six or seven years it's it's a lot of pages in there so you bring your almanacs and i'll bring

1:14:44Derrik Klassen: all of my beasts because i think i have every single one i think i do still have a couple of

1:14:49Robert Mays: them in my in my bookshop i might try to bring them tomorrow that's gonna tear the bookcase down It's going to weigh like 60 pounds. I actually do need some new bookcases too. And I might be asking for trouble if I take them off, but that's okay. All right. That is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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