Are we wrong about running back value?

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1:53Robert Mays: debate. We have so many kind of quick can things we go to when it comes to why you can't draft a running back in the top five. All the surplus value just isn't in your favor. The opportunity cost you get for not drafting another premium position in that spot. Running backs are just so much more dependent on what's going on around them and other positions are. And then on the other side of it, we have, well, running backs are more important now than they were 10 years ago because of the way the league has changed. The running game is much more central to successful offenses. There's more light boxes.

2:25Robert Mays: Teams are playing defense differently. So yeah, it's possible to draft the running back that high. Running backs are more smoothly folded into the passing game now. So what we wanted to do today is just kind of take all of those arguments on either side of this discussion, debate, however you want to put it, and just interrogate them a little bit. Is this true? Like, do we feel like you can get running backs later on based on the numbers and based on history to the point that you shouldn't draft one in the top five? Has the running game changed enough for us to value running backs in such a way that you can draft a running back fourth overall and feel good about it, especially in a draft like this.

2:59Robert Mays: So what we wanted to do with this is just take an open-minded approach to this topic in a way that we don't always. I think people are kind of entrenched in how they feel about this. And I'll say that I've been guilty about that. I think I've been dismissive of the idea of where you can draft a running back because of some opinions or thoughts that I've had based on how we were having this discussion five, six, seven years ago. And so today we just wanted to revisit it, revisit every single aspect of how we talk about running back value in the NFL and how that should play into the Jeremiah Love discourse as we move into draft day here over the next couple of days.

3:38Robert Mays: So this is me and Bill Barnwell trying to figure out what we get right and what we get wrong about running back value. Let's dig into it.

3:56Robert Mays: This may seem like a strange conversation to be having the day before the NFL draft, as everyone else in America that covers the NFL is obsessing over where some of these players are going to go. But this is the day that we could slot this in. And it's a discussion I really wanted to have because we were as the draft has gotten closer and more and more people have wrestled with the idea of Jeremiah Love going in the top five. I think that there have been a bunch of discussions about when this is okay, where we are at with running back value. And we've been having this conversation on the show for like a month.

4:29Robert Mays: And I've felt myself just kind of going back to some old tropes as I've had this discussion and weighed it. And so I kind of want to just take a step back and evaluate and interrogate even some of the arguments I've been putting forth as part of this discussion and really just kind of reset where we're at with all of the arguments on both sides of this issue as we prepare for jeremiah love to probably be a top five pick in this draft i just i have to warn people because this is like this can be the worst discussion yes yes on the internet yes we are going to try hard to make that not be the case i there's very few people on the planet i want to have this conversation with you maize are one of them so i i just want to say i'm warning you i'm anti-warning you now we are going to try and make this fun yeah and that's i think it's you never want to be like this is going to be a different version of that discussion but i kind of want it to be because and the reason that i am comfortable saying that is because i don't feel strongly enough about one side or the other to be annoying about this I think that's my hope in terms of where we land at the end of this discussion.

5:48Robert Mays: Like, I'm ready to be swayed, I guess is what I would say. We don't have to. We could be smart enough here to not have a binary conversation about either running backs are completely useless and you can literally just plug in any jabroni and you're going to be fine. or it's 1973 and the first four MVP picks should all be running backs. There's a middle ground there. There's nuance there we can get to. We can have a conversation about. And this conversation is different right now than it would have been 10 years ago or 20 years ago or 30 or 40 years ago for lots of reasons that I'm sure we're going to get to today.

6:27Robert Mays: And that's partially why I wanted to do this, because I think that a lot of my kind of quick responses and the quick talking points that I go to about this are probably a little bit too weighted to the conversation that we were having seven to 10 years ago. And if you look at it, that's when a lot of the running backs don't matter stuff started to creep up. And it makes sense based on what the league looked like at that time. You know, I think about like the 20, I think about like the 2018 Chiefs, right? And just like that offense and just how monumental and transformative that period in the NFL felt like.

7:02Robert Mays: And the idea that you could have that offense and just kind of throw Kareem Hunt in there and it didn't really matter and they could be one of the best offenses we've ever seen. It felt like that was a consistent thing around the NFL in like that era. And I do think the league has changed enough where it's probably worth revisiting a lot of the things we used to say about this topic. And that's why, along with me kind of questioning the validity of the other things that I was saying and a lot of the things that I was saying, thought this might be a good time to actually have this version of the conversation.

7:34I think it goes back further. And it's not like you realize this in a moment, but just to me, this is a Shanahan offense conversation, right? This is going back to Terrell Davis.

7:45Robert Mays: Yeah, there are different periods of it, right? There are different versions of why it happens, and they kind of build on top of each other. But that, to me, is the combo of we saw not just one back. Like, oh, they just stumbled on Terrell Davis in the late rounds of that draft, but it was Dominus Gary, Arian Foster, Landis Gary, Mike Anderson in Denver. And you saw Kyle Shanahan go around the league, and his offense is sort of spread around the league, and Alfred Morris thrived in Washington. And, you know, you saw over and over again, these late round picks driving at running back. And so because that offense became the meta and because that offense was so successful, I'd even throw CJ Anderson coming off of his couch and replacing Todd Gurley and looking great in there as well.

8:29I think that was the biggest long term trend. I think if it had just been a team or maybe just like a guy here or there, I think it would have been like, hey, they just landed a stud in the sixth round. That happens. I thought crazy to imagine they just landed a really good running back. And not to say those backs I mentioned aren't good because they are good, but there's so many elements to that Shanahan offense and the meta of that Shanahan offense and how not only has the meta of the NFL changed, but also the meta of that offense itself has changed and how it's spread around the NFL. And I think that changes the way that the role that those running backs have in those offenses and how valuable the running backs could be within the context of those offenses.

9:07Robert Mays: Yeah, I agree with that. And I do think that as we, it's funny that a lot of the arguments that we're going to talk about maybe are a little bit more recent, like the data points that we go to are a little bit more recent. But when you think about the true baseline examples of why you can find running backs late, you go back like 25 years immediately to think about those Shanahan teams. The fact that that's the first place we go, even though there's a lot more recent stuff that's more relevant to this discussion, I think is pretty telling. Of course, but you can go back to last year's draft, though, no?

9:39I mean, you know, and this is not, to me, I don't put this on Ashton Gentry, but the conversation we were having a year ago was, can you take him in the top 10 if you're not a great team? Like the Raiders were not, and they were heavily favored to take him and then took him. But in a draft where there were so many backs we felt good about later in the first round, into day two, even into day three of that draft, is taking a running back in the top 10 valuable? And it's different this year because, you know, Jeremiah Love is a phenomenal running back prospect. And I think the most likely scenario is that he is a great player in the NFL, and I hope he ends up in a place where he can do that.

10:13But there is more of a drop off this year. It's not as deep of a running back class. It's not as explosive or exciting of a running back class, maybe as it was last year. And so I think that there's changed the calculus in evaluating Love. I know we're going to have a broader conversation, but I think Love is a unique player, given that this is a draft where not just a running back, but at so many other positions. So many other spots in the top 10 or even into the top 20. We're looking at players who don't have that classic fit for a critical position. We're looking at guys who maybe don't profile as X receivers going in the top 20.

10:44We're looking at guys who are hybrid linebacker-edge rushers going in the top 10 safeties, potentially being top 15 picks. Like, this is a weird draft. And so I think that lends itself to Jeremiah Love being a more interesting player to discuss at the very top of the draft that he would be in a draft where there were more, you know, wide receivers and left tackles and edge rushers available in the top 10.

11:03Robert Mays: I totally agree with that. I think we can get into that. Just the idea of there's a couple different places that we can hit that. The idea of how safe a Jeremiah Love is compared to some of the other prospects and when that becomes OK. Let's start. So what I want to do with this is I kind of want to take a lot of the canned arguments and points that come up in this discussion and just interrogate them. Be like, we say this. Is this true? And then just kind of keep going through them as we do it. And so you talking about being able to get running backs later in last year's draft and then just, again, it's a refrain we go back to very often.

11:37This idea of there are running backs.

11:40Robert Mays: You can find running backs later. So that's why you shouldn't take one in the top 10. This is my first. Is this true? Like, is this actually true in the way that we find the players at the position in the modern NFL over the last 5, 10, 15, 20 years? Let's look at this. So as you think about this, this idea of you shouldn't draft the running back in the top 10 because in most years, let's say that this is a qualifier in most years. And over time, you're able to find them in more places than the first round of the NFL draft. Do you think right now that is a valid argument against drafting a running back high?

12:16Maybe, but not for the reasons that I think you're putting out there. I think the answer is probably yes.

12:23Robert Mays: It's not for the Arian Foster reasons. It's not for those reasons. No, it's not. And I think, number one, the league is adjusted, right? I mean, we've seen fewer running backs go in the first round over the last 15 to 20 years. And so I think the value of, you know, you can't put running backs in a vacuum, but like the idea that 20 years ago, we would not be having a conversation about Jeremiah Love being a top five pick. It would be a no doubt, obvious that that's where he's going to go. You know, if you have a running back who's number one on a lot of big boards, which I think Jeremiah Love is close on a lot of big boards, there would be no conversation to have here.

12:59So that has changed. We're seeing, I think, guys who would go in the bottom of round one go in the middle of round two. We're seeing guys who would go in the middle of round two get to round three. I think we're seeing running backs drop already. And so some of that has already been priced in. I would argue the opportunity cost is the bigger factor. That idea of you're taking a running back in the first round. It's not, oh, he's probably going to stink. He's going to be bad. We can get to the success rate for those picks in a minute. But it's that conversation of, oh, you're drafting a guy at the position, the NFL values at a lower level than just about anything besides kicker, punter, long sniper, and fullback, which is where running back is right now after the Tyler Benderbaum contract.

13:44Centers have jumped up over running backs when it comes to second contract value and three-year contract value for those positions. So there's that. But I think the bigger thing that's changed, and this to me is really significant, is there's more free agent backs available and good free agent backs available. And that, I think, is where the league has changed. And again, you can't quantify this, but I would just look at the free agent classes over the last 15 years. How many times has a Saquon Barkley caliber prospect at a different position? Sorry, a Saquon Barkley caliber player in the prime of his career hit the market at a different position.

14:27It's pretty rare. Even a Derrick Henry who signed for, I mean,$7 million a year,$7.5 million a year with the Ravens. Like, not that Derrick Henry didn't have some red flags, as he did in terms of his workload, but, like, a Derrick Henry calendar player hitting the market. Like, it happens, but it's just so rare. And I would even go to this year, Mays, with Kenneth Walker, like a guy who, certainly not perfect, but prime of his career, coming off of a Super Bowl, wasn't going to make a ton of money, got$13 million a year or so. How often are those guys hitting the market at any other position in football?

15:00There's that opportunity to get guys that I think makes it less painful maybe to skip on guys in the draft.

15:07Robert Mays: There's a bunch of different things happening here, and I think you hit on most of them. So this idea that, well, you can find running backs deep into day three even, and that's why it's hard to justify drafting a running back high. If you look at the numbers even over the last two decades, that doesn't really bear out. Like most of the impact running backs that are drafted in the NFL, if you just look at the percentages, are actually coming in the first two rounds of the draft. It's mostly from rounds one and two, and there's a good chunk of them coming from round one specifically. And I think that's even more obvious and even clearer when you look at the last like five-ish years.

15:43Robert Mays: Right now, drafting a running back in the top half of the first round, for the most part, those guys have worked out. Like those have been good picks in terms of like those are good NFL players. We're happy that they're on our team over the last 10 or so years. They are. But we're going to get to this with the B.J. and Jameer Gibbs discussion, I think. That idea of like when you hit, what do you get with a running back versus other positions? That I think is also the complicating factor here. And we'll talk about surplus value and all of those things. And that's also part of this discussion. But the wasteland is actually in the back half of the first round.

16:18Robert Mays: The back half of the first round is where we've had a lot of misses, and we just haven't had a lot of impact players come from that range in general. I'm going to read off to you the names of the running backs taken in the back half of the first round since 2006, so the last 20 years, okay? And we won't include O 'Marion Hampton because that just happened. Lawrence Maroney, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Travis Achan, Rashad Penny, Donald Brown, D 'Angelo Williams, Mark Ingram, Javid Best, Joseph Asai, Beanie Wells, Sony Michelle, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire.

16:53Robert Mays: So that's actually the treacherous stretch. I just saw like a decade of my life flashing past my eyes. The first half of the first round, we're talking about guys like Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Adrian Peterson, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Jameer Gibbs. So the first half of the first round has actually been a good place to find these guys. The league typically is good at identifying those sorts of players. The difference, it's not that you can find these guys deep into day three, but the fact that there's also pretty much an equal number of impact backs found in round two.

17:28Robert Mays: That is the slight difference between this and other like premium, premium positions. Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Kenneth Walker, Maurice Jones, Drew, LaShawn McCoy, Matt Forte, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb. There are a lot of impact backs over the last 20 years that come from round two. The position where it's almost all round one, there's two of them. Offensive tackles, your impact guys are coming from the first round. Like almost invariably, they're coming from the first round. Edges is also heavily weighted. If you look since 2006, the edge rushers that have made multiple Pro Bowls, there have been 39 of them.

18:03Robert Mays: 26 of them were drafted in round one. 26 of the 39. Again, with offensive tackles, it's almost all of them. The position where there's actually a wide distribution in the draft and that it was actually interesting looking at this is actually wide receiver. The impact receivers you find across the entire draft. And so I think that's why you think about the two recent examples. Amin Ra and St. Brown and Puka are two examples of like all pro caliber players we just found on day three. But you need two to three receivers per team. So that that also weighs it differently. And the other side of this is exactly what you said about free agency.

18:43Robert Mays: Wide receivers, Jason Fitzgerald just wrote about this on Over the Cap last week, where he was looking at the percentage of the top 20 players at the position and what percentage of them come from free agency specifically. Wide receiver is a 9.5%. All the other premium positions are 30 % or lower when you're looking at the top 20 players. Running backs is up near like 50%. It's in the same range as safeties, linebackers, tight ends. a lot of these other positions where you can find guys in free agency. So the scarcity argument isn't as much about being able to find guys into day three as we might have made it out to be a decade ago, but there still is much less scarcity at running back than there is at some of these other premium positions, even if most of the best, best players often come from the first half of the first round.

19:32And then on top of that, what's happened with running backs is that they're getting paid less than they were adjusting for cap a decade ago, or especially 20 years ago. And that seems wrong to me. It does seem like now second contracts for running backs are underpaid. Like, I just look back at last year, James Cook, he wasn't a free agent, he got an extension with the Bills, but it was the final year of his deal. He got$11.5 million a year. And I feel bad because I pick on these dudes every time I talk about 2025 contracts. De 'Ami Brown and Tutu Atwell got$10 million a year. James Cook is a better player.

20:14He fumbles too much. He has some flaws here or there. James Cook is better for your offense than De 'Ami Brown and Tutu Atwell. And he should not be making$1.5 million more.

20:25Robert Mays: So isn't that actually an argument that paying a running back is a way to find value? Right? If you find a really good running back. And so this idea. Not even a really good running back, but just that idea of it's less painful to pay a back and take a shot on a back versus taking a shot on a player at another position. So this plays into the surplus value argument to me, which we can get to that right now if you want to. So this idea of, and I go to this all the time. I'm very guilty of this. I've said this a bunch, even in the lead up to this draft cycle, where let's look at the highest paid players at running back and let's look at the highest paid players at other positions.

21:01Robert Mays: Right. If you draft Jeremiah Love in at three overall, he immediately becomes the seventh highest paid running back in the NFL. If you draft a wide receiver at that spot, it's the 40th highest paid player at the position. When you get to second contracts, you're paying a 2x premium for a running back compared to an offensive tackle, a 3x premium for a running back compared to an edge rusher or wide receiver. That surplus value is important when you think about the context of team building and where you can spend your resources in a capped league. But as you think more about it, I think there are layers and nuances to this.

21:36Robert Mays: The first one is, are we at a place, and I asked a lot of people about this last week, GMs, people in analytics departments, because I was like, all right, let's poke and prod a lot of this stuff. Are we at a place where with the cap inflating the way that it does and teams being so good at manipulating the salary cap, where surplus value actually matters less now when it comes to team building than it ever has in the NFL and shouldn't necessarily be the driving force of how you make these decisions? It matters less. And I think you can fit more things onto your roster if you truly want to. Before I get to that, I want to just contextualize for people how running back contracts have changed.

22:18So for percentages of the cap, this year, Kenneth Walker signed an average. His deal is 4.7 % of the cap in 2026. Travis H. Chan's 3.9%. Those are like solid starters, right? Like they're not, they're players where it's like, okay, you feel really good about them. I have questions about their, like, are they going to be 1 ,300-yard rushers? I'm not sure, but they could be useful players. That's what Lamar Miller and Chris Ivory were getting a decade ago. That's a little, I think. You know, those guys are not as good as those players who just signed in free agency. Go back two decades ago. Edger and James signs with the Cardinals.

22:57Now, you remember Edger and James' tenure with the Cardinals. He got 7.5 % of the cap. He almost got twice as much as Kenneth Walker or Travis H. And Jamal Lewis re-upped with the Ravens on a three-year deal. He got 8.2 % of the cap. The following year, Amon Green signed with the Texans as a 30-year-old for 5.3 % of the cap. That's my point, is it's not just that does surplus value mean less because the cap is going up, but it's just the actual price you have to pay to get these guys in the building or keep them around is so much less than it was. 20 years ago when we were forming these arguments about running back value.

23:35And so we would be having different conversations if those guys 20 years ago were signing for half of what they were making then. And we'd be having different conversations if Kenneth Walker was making$25 million a year, which is what he would be making if he was making about 7.5 % of this year's salary cap. And so I feel like that conversation is not caught up with where the cap has gone. And that matters a lot. That does change, I think, some of the surplus value conversation.

24:04Robert Mays: Yeah, I totally agree with that. And I also just think, again, like, ultimately, in a salary-capped league, you're always going to have to make concessions. You're always going to have to decide this or that. I mean, let's go to the Eagles two years, like, last offseason, right? Like, the Eagles could not pay Milton Williams. The Eagles could not pay Jalen Phillips. even the teams that are the most aggressive in how they're manipulating this stuff still are going to have to lose out on players because it is a capital league and you ultimately have to make choices. I just think that right now, those choices are less frequent than they've ever been, especially with teams that are willing to manipulate this thing.

24:43Robert Mays: And I think we've drifted to a place where I think you can make a really serious argument that the absolute value of the talent on your team is more important than where and how often you're finding surplus value as you're building your team. And I think that the potential chance that Jeremiah Love is going to be a good player compared to some of these other guys at other positions in this draft, especially when you look at the hit rate on these top 10, top 12-ish picks recently, you can make a serious argument that the more absolute value you're going to be getting from these picks is from Jeremiah Love versus a lot of the other guys that you could draft in that spot, even if the surplus value argument is not in your favor.

25:23But then there's the thing of you can't get a Saquon Barkley caliber edge rusher in free agency. You can get a Saquon Barkley in free agency. So looking at the broader running back pool, and I did this three years ago when I was writing about Bijan before that draft. So this is not updated between now and then. Obviously, Bijan's going to, I think, has had his option picked up, if I'm not mistaken. That's also part of this, by the way.

25:48Robert Mays: Bijan's option's$11 million. Helps. Zay Flowers' option is$27 million. Like, that should play into this. It does. It does. That's true. So Bichon and Jameer Gims are going to have their options picked up, obviously. So these numbers are going to help. But when I looked a few years ago, I did the math. This was for the bottom half of round one. I think it was the Cowboys picked that year. They've been a playoff team. So just the idea of, like, given that running back contracts are less than any other position on their second contracts, given that the draft is a flat cap where you're just basically, no matter what position you pick, whether you pick a quarterback or a longstop or you're paying them the exact same amount for the first four years of their deal, you can use that to kind of figure out, okay, how right do I have to be about a running back at that spot versus a player out of another position?

26:35With running backs, they have to pan out 63 % of the time for that late first round pick on a running back to work. For a wide receiver, it has to be 26 % of the time. Edge rusher, same thing, 26 % of the time. So you just have to be significantly more certain. And I think that's the problem to me is we I don't know if we can be that certain. I would love to say we are really good at picking the running backs. And I think the guys you brought up in the first half of the draft are evidence that it can be the case. i'd also point out leonard fournette was in that discussion and did not do all that well um we're still waiting to see what happens with ashton jante um even at saquon was obviously a a great player for the eagles the giants saquon i think that's a hit i don't i don't really like i put it this way he was a hit he on the giants was not a hit unfortunately um but so so those running backs had their 50 option picked up 39 % of the time.

27:36League average was, I think, right about 51%. So they were actually having their 50 option picked up less often, even though it was going to be cheaper than other positions. That's going to change with Bijan and Gibbs getting into the mix. And we're not talking about a huge sample of running backs. I think it's like 15 or 16 back. So it's a pretty small group. But I think that's the concerning part to me, is that if you could feel really confident you're going to get that guy, and maybe you only can in the first half of the first round, then okay. I think it's okay to do that. But I think when you just have this sort of uncertainty about everyone, and I think that's probably the most accurate position to take about NFL prospects is just, we just don't know.

28:12And we are too confident with our ability to pick the right guy. You're better off taking those swings on a dresser as a wide receiver. It's just because when you do hit, you're landing a guy worth$40 million a year in the current market or$30 million a year in the current market. And you can never get that guy in the NFL at running back because that's just not running backs are worth necessarily.

28:30Robert Mays: I go to that all the time. And I usually, for the most part, I'm inclined to agree with you because I think that's right. I also think the back half of the first round we've seen, it is a little bit different than the first half of the first round when it comes to players at this position. We're making like little caveats here to kind of like fit arguments. But in talking to people about this, I do think that the difference, if you're trying to paint one between Leonard Fournette, even Ashton Jensie, and some of the rest of these guys we're talking about, is the pass game value part of this is a necessary part for you to be drafting this guy in the first half of the first round.

29:06Robert Mays: And I think that has generally become the conventional wisdom among smart people who are thinking about these decisions as well. And so Jeremiah Love does check that box. I mean, if you look at it, and so you look at the receiving value part of this specifically, it's kind of an interesting, like, set of considerations because there used to be a lot of backs that were giving you a lot of receiving value even like seven, eight years ago, but they were specific kind of backs. Like they were the James Whites and the JD McKissicks and guys like that. When you look at these like do it all backs, Gibbs, Bijan and CMC all had like at least 14 total EPA as receivers last year per next gen.

29:47Robert Mays: That doesn't happen very often. Okay. Hey, to be fair, they also all had negative rushing EPA. So I don't know if EPA is a good measure for this. That's fair. Well, that's also part of the problem. I want to get into that as well. But like those guys, that doesn't happen that often. It has happened at times. Like the last set of players, I think that was kind of like this. There was a season where Le 'Veon Bell and David Johnson did it. Like we have seen it previously. But if you're going to bet on these guys in the first half of the first round, you almost need them to be plus plus receivers for you.

30:17Robert Mays: And for net and Ashton Gentia just don't profile those sorts of players. And I think that's why you can kind of question those picks compared to some of the others. Okay. So you are right in that. I think you need to be a good receiver to justify this. I think it means a little less just because we are leaning more towards like the run game now. And I think that's maybe a reason to talk about that for me. benefiting running backs. We'll talk about that, yeah. One of my arguments that I think is total bullshit and is still total bullshit is the thing we hear about every single running back coming out in the top 10.

30:51Guys, you have to understand, he's not a running back. He's an offensive weapon. You can split him out wide. You can put him in the slot. You can make him a playmaker. Mace, I have a quote for you. That is the part that's bullshit, though. The putting him out wide and in the slot thing is the part that's bullshit. I have a quote for you. We're going to get to the numbers in a second. I have a quote for you about Brees Hall from Aaron Glenn before last season. You can do a lot with Brees, Glenn said. We're going to open up his game quite a bit. He's the type of guy you can split out wide and let him run the route tree because he can run it like a receiver.

31:23Robert Mays: It drives me crazy. Do you want to know what Brees Hall did? He can't do it as well as a receiver. No, no, no, no. Not even that. Do you know how many routes Brees Hall ran out of the slot or split out wide last year? Less than 10. He ran 20. He turned them into five targets and 22 yards. That was three tunnel screens, a hitch against off coverage on second and 14, and an option route for five yards on first and 10. It is the ultimate bullshit dump because no one actually goes back and checks to see whether these guys are actually being used this way. I went and looked. I went from 23 to 25. I looked at running backs on the whole.

32:03They offered 0.36 yards per outrun, split out wide, or split out wide or in the slot, which is basically like if Van Jefferson had a leg chopped off before the game and tried to run routes where you're at. Bijan was at 0.51 yards per outrun, Gibbs 0.46. Alvin Kamara, who I think is a phenomenal receiving back, 0.51. Christian McCaffrey was at 0.99. The worst qualifying wide receiver over that stretch, split out wide, or in the slot, was Jahan Dotson at 1.13 yards per outrun. So basically, these superstar running backs who are, and I want to be clear, phenomenal receivers, actually valuable, impactful players as receivers.

32:43They're still running backs. They're not doing it in the slot. They're not doing it out wide. When they are, they're doing it on screens and gimmick stuff, which is okay. But like, let's just be honest about what they are and what they can do.

32:53Robert Mays: We'll say with this one thing, I agree with you almost entirely. I think that's the one thing where every single time I hear it, I just start rolling my eyes. those numbers I think are weighed down by what happens when you line a running back out wide in the situations you do it in no question oh so often you're lining that running back up out at number one in order to get like some sort of man zone tell when you're in empty things like this like it's a structural thing that you're doing and so you're burning them on those plays even if they're quote-unquote running a route so while I mostly agree with you I do think they're also motioning in a fair amount of the time, too, after being spread out at number one.

33:30Robert Mays: All the time, though. Not all the time, true, but a fair amount of the time. I do think those numbers are a little bit skewed just based on what happens when you're lining those guys up in those situations. But for the most part, yes, I do agree with you. Okay. If you want to show me a two-minute highlight reel of B. John Robinson running the route tree, I'll happily say I'm wrong. You're not going to find it because he's not doing that. And B. John Robinson, to be clear, rules. He is an awesome receiver. But I think there is that question about those players, right? Like this idea of the receiving back and this offensive weapon, even leaving that argument, which I find to ring very false aside, there's a question of, are these guys winning because of their receiving skills or are they winning because of what's being skimmed up?

34:16and I pick on him a lot. He's a good player. I feel bad. This is like the Kyle Ushchik argument to me, where it's like, Kyle Ushchik is not running some killer routes. Like he's getting open because Kyle Shanahan is giving stuff open for him. That's not a Kyle Ushchik thing. You plug in another pretty good fullback, you're going to get that. I think when you have backs, you can run option routes. You can run choice stuff. You can, you know, stretch teams horizontally. Like, yes, that's a valuable thing and you can find guys to do that, but that's not just a first round thing either. I mean, the Rams, every third down and fourth down it felt like last year they weren't going to um to puka nakuha it was the karen williams option route and karen williams was not a first round pick so i think we have to sort of delineate here between like how much of this is a running back creating in the structure of the offense versus how much of it is creating or by running creating after the catch creating by maintaining tackles creating by actually separating from defensive backs which i think is possible but i just don't think is happening as often maybe as those arguments are or making it out to be.

35:12Robert Mays: So this brings me into the next kind of argument against this that I want to dig into, and that's this idea of, okay, are running backs more dependent on the other elements of the offense to be impactful players for you? And is that one of the reasons that you should not be drafting them as high as the players that are actually creating that offensive infrastructure? Do we think that is true? Do we think that is a worthwhile argument against drafting a running back in the top 10 or higher. It's the Ashton-Gente argument, right? Like, that's the Saquon Barkley argument. That seems unfair to those backs to make it.

35:49And I mean, I guess what I would say is this, right? Like, you rarely run into teams that are as hopeless on offense around a running back as Ashton-Gente in the Raiders last year. I mean, especially post-Coulton Miller injury, that offense was completely hopeless with Ashton-Gente on the field or not. I mean, what does seem fair to say is, I think about teams like the Cowboys in recent years, you can create a solid run game with a good offensive line and an underappreciated back. You can't do it with a great running back and a middling offensive line. but again i just i think that's too simplistic and binary of an argument because offensive lines are not either incredible or terrible there's usually some middle grounds maybe it's okay we have two offensive line we feel really good about and three we don't feel great about or we have four guys we feel good about and one we don't feel great about um but i do think something that's missing and i think this is a a question of how teams are funding their offenses and funding their running games is something that's missing from the conversation quite a bit.

36:53Like that conversation about are running backs not getting paid enough? Are they underappreciated? It's fair and valid. But that money has mostly gone to interior offensive linemen. Like NFL teams are still spending on their run games. They're just choosing to spend on centers and guards way more than they have in the past. And so when we think about, okay, should running backs get paid more? I would argue, yes, I think running backs, really good backs should get paid more. is that going to come from offensive linemen? Like, which bucket does that come from in the team budget? And so I think if you're building an offense where you're investing that money in the run game and it happens to be on the offensive line, you can get results.

37:37I think if you're investing that in the running back and you're not investing as much in the offensive line, you can still get results, but you just have to hit your draft picks on the offensive line, which is tough. We're having a really good offensive line coach, which there's like six of them and a couple of them just retired. Like that to me is the tough part of like you can't just draft a running back and not have a good offensive infrastructure and succeed. Everyone knows that. But like you're having a choice about where are we investing. And I think you have to invest in both to make it really work.

38:07Robert Mays: So we've seen guard salaries really increase at a disproportionate rate compared to running backs. Centers have been more stagnant. That has now changed, right? Right. And so until this year, that has that has changed. So the argument about it, what do you do you think there is a good argument for what? Because centers and guards specifically. Right. The idea of where you can be able to find those players in free agency. Those guys are available in free agency at about the same rate that running backs are available in free agency. So do you think that there is a reasonable argument as to why guards and centers should be paid more than running backs?

38:46Robert Mays: if we can find them at pretty much the same rates in the draft and we can find them at pretty much the same rate in free agency? I would say they're on the field every stop. That, to me, is, I think, the tangible difference you can make is that— Longevity, maybe, is the other one I would throw out there. Just like how long those guys can play. Longevity is a good argument, too. But I think also the idea of we don't have a lot of three-down. Even the guys who we think of as three-down backs, like Abishon Robinson can be a three-down back, even though he was secretly really terrible in pass per last year and nobody talks about it.

39:20But like, you know, like a Christian McCaffrey's three down back, a Derrick Henry's a three down back. Those guys aren't playing 90 percent of the staffs most weeks. Like they are coming off the field a fair amount. And so you could take that as like a cynical NFL plot to reduce the value of the NFL running back. Maybe that's the case. I think teams have generally found like our offenses are better. Those lead backs are better when they get more breathers, they get more time off. They last longer. And I think to the idea of like, there was a run where a lot of second contracts for NFL backs went poorly.

39:54I think one of the reasons this most recent crop of second contracts have gone better is because guys are not getting as many carries adjusted for the 17th game, at least on their rookie deals, as opposed to, I think about Todd Gurley and the workload he had, not just in terms of his carries and his receptions, but also just he was going to be able to get better. on the field 90 % of the time, a fair amount of the time during that rookie deal under McFay.

40:16Robert Mays: Going back to the idea of are running backs more tied to the other elements of the offense and their ability to succeed? I do think that we have a decent amount of evidence that that is the case, right? Like I think that Saquon to me is probably the best example. Like when you go back and you look at those early Saquon seasons, Saquon as a rookie had a 32 % rushing success rate. like those were those were slogs even if he was productive those seasons were slogs he also i think led the league in rush yards over expectation that year yes and like he's doing everything he can yeah and it's still negative i'll say this though because i think it's i still land in a place where i think it is harder for a running back to transcend his circumstances than it is for a lot of other positions i i just do i think it's just harder to do and i think that is an argument in favor of going some of these other directions instead of a running back.

41:08Robert Mays: I also think that the aesthetics of this play into it, right? Like a running back, even in a moderate workload, Ashton Denty is going to touch the ball 250 times. We are going to watch Ashton Denty run into the back of his lineman 250 times. Even for wide receivers in bad situations, it's just not as ugly to watch. And so I think the, it lasts a little bit less. Like it's it, we don't quite have it burned into our brains quite as much when a receiver is just in kind of like bad circumstances, like Ted Rowe McMillan last year. If you look at his numbers, like on a per route basis, they're actually kind of similar in terms of like where they rank among all the players at that position to what like a Saquon would have done early in his career with the Giants.

41:54Robert Mays: But we don't think about that Ted Rowe McMillan season last year and think, man, that was a really frustrating experience watching Tedderola McMillan play in that offense. You're right. You flip it. I think one of the reasons running backs and the run game was so valued in the NFL for so long was this idea of a five-yard run just looks and feels so much more satisfying than a five-yard check down or a five-yard hitch or a five-yard basic. Just like, okay, whatever, we got five yards. It doesn't feel that great. A five-yard run feels like you've accomplished something. It's a positive play, even though it's the exact same amount of yardage as a five-yard pass.

42:29Robert Mays: I think the, going back to Giants, and I didn't do this to you on purpose, but I was looking at the Saquon rookie numbers compared to like Malik Nabors, right? Malik Nabors was on an objectively bad offense as a rookie, but he was still fine. Like his numbers and what he did independently, he was able to transcend a terrible offense when it came to his individual production in a way that a player like Saquon Barkley never would be. And I think that is important to think about when you're considering taking a running back when you have a bad team compared to taking a receiver when you have a bad team.

43:03You're completely correct. And yet then I, and again, this is anecdotal and unfair, but like, I do think this is the first example that comes to mind. I go back to the Chiefs. That year they took Clyde Edwards-Alaire at 32. And it was like, well, this is different because we can afford to take Clyde Edwards-Alaire. We're set at receiver. T. Higgins, by the way, I believe was the very next pick in that draft. We're set at receiver. We can afford a luxury pick. This guy's a perfect fit for offense because he's a great receiver. It did not work out with Clyde Edwards and Larry in Kansas City. I sort of like, yes, we would love to drop every running back into a perfect situation.

43:40But this also goes back to the carry thing you brought up, which is like, if you're a wide receiver, you're going to get a couple ISO targets here and there, especially if you're a top five pick. But like, you're only going to get the ball if you get open. So you're going to look efficient because you're getting the ball by your ability. Ashton Gentry was going to get the ball 15 times a game last year, regardless of whether he was any good or not, and regardless of whether he was working or not, because the Raiders did not have alternatives. It wasn't like they were only giving him the ball in positive run scripts or positive looks.

44:12They just were like, hey, we don't want Geno to die. And so we're going to give Ashton Gentry the ball just to make Geno's life easier. We don't trust any of our offensive linemen in pass pro, so we're going to run the ball. Outside of the one game where Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball like 50 times and no one really seemed to understand it, including Pete Carroll, it is just like a – you're sort of setting up these guys in bad situations to fail. And it's through no fault of their own. And I think that makes it tough because I think we're more likely to hang on to the guys who are in incredible situations, going back to all those Shanahan-era backs and being like, well, they don't count because they were with a genius offensive coordinator and a run game that succeeds and teams are terrified of the play-action game.

45:01like that's just as valid of a beneficial situation as the gentier of Berkeley situations are as awful situations like i think you can't really evaluate either of those sets of guys

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47:58Robert Mays: let's get to the opportunity cost argument because i do think it's a really important one and i also think the opportunity cost thing can meet to me kind of plays into this idea of sequencing like when should you draft a running back and if you're in the top five and you're offensive line isn't where it needs to be or you need a pass rusher is that another argument against drafting one like is there actually a sequence in terms of how this should happen so what how do you feel about how when it should come as part of the overall team building process and where are you at with the idea of the opportunity cost of drafting running back in the top five versus another position and why it's important or whether it's overstated how important it is no we talked about it a little bit earlier about like the financial reasons why there's an opportunity cost i think the tough part is it isn't really about running back to me it's about the other positions when it comes to the opportunity cost it's not a we can't take this running back because he's good it's that you only have so many shots and so many chances to actually fill the positions you cannot getting free agency.

49:04And I think what reinforces this is two really good running backs. I go to the Bijan Robinson situation and the Jameer Gibbs situation. So the Falcons draft Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson in a three-year span. Two players who are good players, Kyle Pitts is good now, remember, at positions we don't value as premium spots. And their pass rush was a mess for years. They tried to sign Dante Falco. That didn't work. They draft a couple guys that doesn't work. They make the big trade-up last year. Obviously, we don't know what's going to happen with James Pierce. It's unrealistic to judge him based on that.

49:36But, like, you know, that was a—we kept not addressing edge rusher. It held our team back. Even when we got the running back right, we were still in trouble until we completely had to sell out and use a ton of capital to get a guy we felt get about at the end of the first round. For the Lions, Schumacher gives rules. He is awesome. He is fun to watch. He's a great player. They draft Jack Campbell in that draft. They draft Brian Branch, Stanley Porter, all good football players, guys who they're going to sign, I think, to second contracts. They're all really useful players at positions we don't typically see as valuable.

50:11And the Lions are sitting here now. A couple years later, they don't have a right tackle because they would potentially have a left tackle. They don't have a second edge. They haven't had a second edge for the entirety of the Aiden Hutchinson era. I don't know if it makes a difference for them the year they lose to the commanders because that team was just so banged up. But do they beat the Niners if they have a second edge rusher and the Niners are spending that entire second half playing from behind? They have a great defensive tackle who can pass rush. Like, I think that's the tough part is you can get those picks right and land running backs who are superstars and you feel great about.

50:44And because you only have so many shots at landing tackles, edge rushers, wide receivers. And the Lions did land a wide receiver in the middle rounds of the draft. But if you don't land that stuff, then it's going to be so hard to fill that in. And we've seen the Falcons and Lions both try to fill in elsewhere in spots where your chances of succeeding are very low, and they haven't been able to do so.

51:05Robert Mays: If you look back at the two drafts you're talking about, and we can make an argument about the second one and even the first one, but the Falcons in 2021 drafted Kyle Pitts. Michael Parsons was the top 12 pick in that draft. And it's exactly right. Like even if Kyle Pitts is a good player, they had to scramble and trade back into the first round for James Pierce because they never figured out the edge rushing thing because they spent two first round picks on non-premium positions. In the Bijan draft, the next pick was, I believe, or two picks later was Jalen Carter. Okay. And you can make it. I think I think Bijan Robinson is a better player than Jalen Carter is in terms of like on field impact.

51:45Robert Mays: I think I do believe that. But at the same time, it's harder to find a player like Jalen Carter. The Bengals just had to trade the 10th overall pick in the draft for Dexter Lawrence because you can't find interior defensive linemen of impact in free agency anymore. Yeah, or you can, but they cost$26 million a year if you're the Eagles like swing defensive tackle. Yeah, it's exactly right. For a part-time player, you have to be the second highest paid player at the position in free agency. And that's happened like once in the last five years. and and and to your point like i think jill and carter is the better player of the two of them i don't think it's like obvious like jill and carter is not you know a significantly better player than bichon robinson when you wait last year i don't think you can say that i i think if you look at their careers in totality i think i think bichon was a significantly better player last year specifically and then when you combine that into the aggregate of his career i think bichon's a better player yeah i think bichon rules he fumbled a lot he was terrible in pass pro I think Bichon was better last year.

52:46I also saw Jalen Carter take over a playoff game and pretty much get the Eagles to the next round. That's going to weigh a lot for me. Put it this way. Neither team does this. But if the Falcons call the Eagles and say, we want to trade you Bichon Robinson for Jalen Carter, Howie Roseman hangs up the phone. And the opposite does not happen.

53:11Robert Mays: That's about the availability of those players. It's not about the on-field impact of those players. I think that plays into the price. But the NFL is pricing in. You would assume the on-field impact of those players. But that's not the conversation we're having. It's not is it harder to find Jalen Carter than it is B. John Robinson. It's who's a better player when they're on the field. But that is the conversation. That does matter. That's why you take a guy. It's because the ability to get that guy elsewhere. That's about value, not impact, though. Those are two different conversations. That's a value conversation, not an impact conversation.

53:37I think what the NFL is saying is that the defensive tackles impact the game more than running backs do. And a good running back does. I don't think that's necessarily true.

53:45Robert Mays: Do you think that's true, though? In a vacuum, do you think an impact defensive tackle impacts the game more than a running back? Because that plays into the discussion that we're having. I do. I do think that. It is not, you know, like there are moments where a running back can take over a game. And we're going to talk about, I think, how running backs to me mean more, maybe, than they do in terms of taking over games and having special plays than they do before. But yes, I do think I have seen defensive tackles take over big games more in big moments than running backs have over the last few years.

54:19Robert Mays: Thinking about Chris Jones and Jalen Carter specifically. You think Jalen Carter took over games more than Saquon did for the 2024 Eagles? During the regular season, probably not. In the postseason? In the Rams game? In the Rams game, yes, I do. did you go watch the final few plays of that Rams game? I think it's closer than you're making it out to be. I think the trade value plays, again, more into the idea of value that does to impact. And I think, again, that's something I have softened on. If you would ask me this question a year ago, like the on-field impact of these positions, which is higher?

55:00Robert Mays: I go to the defensive lineman every single time. I think I'm starting to believe the fact that a running back in the modern game can get to that level or be in a similar sort of range. Do you think the NFL is wrong then in saying, because the pricing of those two positions suggests that running backs are not as impactful as defensive tackles on the whole. The top six running backs are not as impactful as the top six defensive tackles. And so those defensive tackles are getting paid an average of about$28 million a year, and the top six running backs are getting paid an average of, if even that much.

55:43We just saw Dexter Lawrence coming off of a mediocre season, a really good player, get traded for the 10th overall pick. The third time in the last 25 years a team has traded a top 10 pick for a veteran player behind Russell Wilson and Randy Moss. there's no universe you would be stunned tomorrow if you woke up and the falcons had traded bjohn robinson for a top 10 pick it would be completely mind-blowing to you and i would come to me at the very least do you think that's wrong do you think that nfl teams are incorrect in feeling that way about the impact ability of running backs good running backs on the whole not when we fold in the opportunity cost and the scarcity no but i think those are the elements that really start

56:25Robert Mays: pumping it up for me is that in order to find those players at other positions, you have to draft them in the first round. You still just don't have to do that with running backs. But with the value... You can find them in the second round. But I'm not arguing the value of running back A versus running back B. I'm arguing the whole group of running backs. Like I'm saying, our running backs on the whole, the top 10 running backs, all of them undervalued versus the ability to impact players in defensive tackle. No. I think it's about the running backs at the top, top, top, top, top. If you ask me, would I rather have the 10th most impactful defense tackle or the 10th most impactful running back, I would have to look at the list next to each other.

57:02Robert Mays: I would strongly assume it's going to be the 10th best defensive tackle. Strongly. I think this argument is more limited to a very small segment of running backs at the very top. And I think the argument, to bring it around to this, is that people think Jeremiah Love can be that sort of player and that's playing into where he's being considered. The last thing about the opportunity cost, part of this to me, I was just playing it out practically and just thinking about two different scenarios, right? So if you're the Titans or the Cardinals and you draft Jeremiah Love at number four, you've given yourself just one fewer opportunity to find a player at a position that you typically find fourth overall.

57:43Robert Mays: Like it's a pass rusher if you're the Titans, it's an offensive tackle if you're the Cardinals. So now you go into the 2027 draft and in the 2027 draft, it is much, much, much more likely that you will be able to find an impact running back in the second round and versus being able to find your offensive tackle in the second round of this year's draft. Like, that's just how it often goes. And so thinking about it that way and just where you have to find these guys, like, that is almost the most important single argument in this for me, is that you just cannot find so many of these other positions in any other place than the first round.

58:21Robert Mays: And with truly elite guys, some like in the first half of the first round. And that's why it's really hard to make the argument for the running back, even in a draft like this. that's what makes the Chiefs conversation when they were thinking when there was conversation about them taking Jeremiah Love so difficult for me is just this is going to be their last top 10 pick for a while you would soon I would be shocked if they don't have 10 pick uh over the next five years and so it's like this is your window to get a tackle or an edge rusher yes you can find a George Karloftis at the end of the first round yes you can draft Josh Simmons coming off of a serious injury and hope he turns out to be your starting left tackle and I think he's going to be in the long run.

58:58But to have a guy you feel really good about who has a really good chance of succeeding, that's a top 10 pick. And I think that's the risk of if we take Jeremiah Love here, again, even if he is a great player, and I hope he is, and I think he will be, the risk of missing out and not having a path to get into other positions like you're saying. Can I...

59:17Robert Mays: The last thing I want to say about this is just... The last thing I want to say is it's this idea of, well, you have a whole rookie contract to build up the rest of the infrastructure around the running back. But by taking the running back, you've robbed yourself of the ability to properly build up the rest of that infrastructure. And that's why, to me, it becomes a problem. It's not that you can, you can, you don't have to sequence it in that exact order. You just have so few opportunities to add a top 10 player at that sort of position to your roster that it's harder to find those guys later on if you've used one of those opportunities on a running back.

59:53Robert Mays: So that to me is where the sequencing thing comes into play. Are you okay saying we can build by going offensive line and running backs, wide receivers, and then taking the quarterback when we feel good about it? Is that a viable strategy for you? Or do you think you have to go offensive line, quarterback, and then get the other stuff? I think that's a valid way of doing it, the first way that you talked about it. I do. Because if you do feel that way, then you could justify taking the same line. There are fewer quarterbacks available. right like it's i don't i don't think you should draft a quarterback in the first round like there are years where you should do it right like the giants should have drafted josh allen when they drafted saquon barkley but there aren't that many drafts where there are five quarterbacks available in the top 10 just thought about how my life would be different if the giants had drafted josh allen in the first round i i i think the emotional swing of how much i would have hated the pick versus how happy I would have been to be wrong about Josh Allen.

1:00:59I don't know that emotionally I could have handled that swing. So maybe it was for the best the Giants did not take Josh Allen.

1:01:04Robert Mays: All right, before we get to the rest of this conversation, let's take one more quick break.

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1:02:49Robert Mays: Let's talk about the structural changes to the league and how that has impacted this discussion or how that should be impacting this discussion. because again, when we were in this place where running backs didn't matter seven, eight, 10 years ago, the running game was just not as central to the way the NFL game was being played as is right now. I was looking up some of the numbers this morning. In 2018, four of the top 10 teams in EPA per play ran the ball less than 40 % of the time. In 2018, 40 % of the top 10 teams in EPA per play. In 2025, that number was zero. No teams in the top 10 in EPA per play ran the ball less than 40 % of the time.

1:03:31Robert Mays: Only three teams were below 43 % in the top 10. And there were six of those teams in 2018. So it's just much, much harder to be a very good NFL offense in 2025 if you don't have a strong running game than it was a decade ago. Should that affect how we view the value of running backs overall? Yes. of course i think it is and i will say and we're going to get to this as well like nfl defenses are aware of what was happening seven eight years ago and they're playing defense differently like i don't i don't have the light box rates i don't have the uh nickel they don't go back 10 years ago yeah but you get the idea like i i i would bet no team in nfl history has played their sub packages 93, 94 % of the time the way the Seahawks did last year.

1:04:28I'm guessing that is an NFL record, even though we don't have the data on it. And that's a product of playing from ahead, which they were for a good chunk of the year. That's a product of having great players and unique players like a Nick Imanwari we talked about before the Super Bowl and the difference that made. But it's also a product of teams have changed the way they play defense. I mean, I go back to really almost a decade now, but about six, seven years ago now, the how teams change the boot game, right? Like where you had that backside edge rusher who when teams were running outside zone, the Shanahan offense, they were chasing down, they're trying to chase down that play from behind and take away the cutback lane.

1:05:06And that opened up the play action game. And I would say probably right around 2018, we saw teams shift that edge rusher's responsibilities. Instead of chasing down outside zone from behind, they just said, f*** it. You have to go get the quarterback. We don't care if we get about five yards a carry to outside zone. we don't want to give up 15 on the boot game and so we saw nfl offenses have their play action ability impact now good coaches have come up with solutions i've been watching ramps tape all week and there's like 18 different ways show mcveigh got guys to the flat open for completions um on their play action game last year but that we've seen nfl defenses basically say we want you to run we've seen fancio defenses proliferate around the nfl we've seen defenses who want to play like carolina which is another franchise style defense with two deep safeties all the time we want to see teams are basically saying we want you to run the football and so i i don't know if that makes it easier for running backs i just think it changes the kind of running back you want like to me i think there has to be a much higher importance placed on can you create explosives.

1:06:17That's it. Do you have the vision on Duo to find an open lane, even if it's at the backside of the play, and create a big play? Whereas I think with the Shanahan-style offense, it was, can you consistently be a one-cut back? Can you consistently find the timing and the vision to make that cut? Teams still run plenty of zones, but that's still valuable. I think his best is his own back, and I think he's going to be running plenty of that at the NFL level. But the way, the things we ask of NFL running backs in the run game are different now than they were 10 years ago. And so I think that changes the kind of back you want.

1:06:54And I think it makes certain kinds of backs more valuable than they would have been a decade ago.

1:06:58Robert Mays: The explosiveness thing is exactly what it's rooted in for two reasons. Actually, for more than that. This idea of because of the way the defenses are playing, the running game is more important. The running game is about more than the running back. And so you can make a very solid argument that, yes, you should be building up your run game infrastructure and valuing that more than you have in years past. But that can manifest with how much you're spending on a guard or where you're drafting those sorts of players. I think the Cowboys are a very good example of this. The Cowboys had three running backs last year, but what they've invested in their offensive line, they're still one of the most efficient running games in the league.

1:07:35Robert Mays: Like that is a viable path here. The explosion thing changes that because we have years and years and years of data that the running backs are responsible for what happens with explosive plays. The line is responsible, more responsible for what happens in the first five yards of a play. And so if explosives are what's going to be at a premium here, the running backs are what create those explosives and the guys who can become really valuable. and I was looking at it. You look at just explosive plays overall and how many running backs are really contributing to a bunch of those explosive plays.

1:08:11Robert Mays: Last year, Derrick Henry and Bijan were tied for eighth in the amount of 20 plus yard plays that they created last year. Tied for eighth. Gibbs and HN were 11th. In 2018, you had one running back in the top 20. It was just Christian McCaffrey. He was the only one. And so I think you can make a really solid argument that running backs, because of what they're paid, are actually the most efficient way to pay for explosive plays in 2025. Like if you look at Saquon and Derrick Henry two years ago, and if you look at the dollar amount being paid to those players, the amount of explosive plays coming from those guys, it was probably the best bang for your buck you could possibly have at any spot in the entire league.

1:08:57Robert Mays: And so I do think that's a real argument for why running backs are significantly more valuable than they used to be. Because explosive passes are so much harder to come by. And I think, again, I think it's more you're evolving what matters as much. Like I think – so success rate for design runs for running backs has gone up from 38 % to 42 % over the last decade. It's crazy. 2015 38 percent 20 25 42 percent that's a big difference it doesn't sound like that big of a difference it really is and you feel that when you watch a game that that is a that is a big difference it's a big difference and i i i don't think a lot of that is running backs and i don't mean i'm not saying that to disparage running backs i think a lot of this more the defense's choices and the offensive choices and that they are more comfortable letting you get a successful play as long as it's on an explosive play and i i do think that that changes what you look for i think having a running back who can be consistently successful is not as valuable as it would have been a decade ago i think about someone like who do i want to pick on like a justin forcette maybe like justin forcette was a good player an efficient back had a good success rate his year as a starter i think in baltimore right?

1:10:15Yeah, it's Baltimore. I don't recall him creating a ton of explosives. I don't think that was his game. You flip it for someone like a Kenneth Walker where the success rate has consistently been below average, but we saw him flip the Super Bowl with his explosives. That was a game where nobody was doing anything on offense for most of that game except until Kenneth Walker hit a few 20-30 yard plays and that led to field goals. That ability, that ability to create at the second level, create at the third level, that is I think the thing that is undervalued and I go back to James Cook like James Cook destroys a lot of value with his fumbles but his ability to run away from guys the second and third level his ability to break tackles his ability to find open spaces is incredibly valuable and it's something that Bill's offense does not have anywhere else with any of their other players maybe Kolo Shakir here and there but like that's the explosive play from that offense is Josh Allen running and James Cook running.

1:11:11And I do think that is undervalued versus how we viewed it a decade ago. And I do think teams should be paying a premium for it, which is why I was not really upset with the Chiefs paying so much for Kenneth Walker because of that ability to create explosives, which by the way, Chiefs, I think over the last couple of years are last in the NFL in explosive run rate from their running backs. So that is, I think a big thing that was missing from that offense. We sort of have been spending the last two years wondering why is the Chiefs offense consistently struggling?

1:11:42Robert Mays: I think that to me is the other part of this. I think if you're going to spend high on a running back, whether that's in free agency, whether that's in the draft, it's maybe two different things. If you're going to spend a premium on a running back, which Kenneth Walker was a premium, he needs to be explosive. If you're going to draft one in the first half of the first round, he needs to be explosive and a positive add to your passing game. Like both of those things need to be true. If both of those things are true, and especially in a draft like this, I think we get closer to a place where you have to jump through fewer hoops in order to justify drafting a player like Jeremiah Love in the top 10 or the top five i think yes but i i think it really depends on the availability and i keep coming back to this idea of we're missing what actually matters here i think when it comes to availability of alternative options.

1:12:45It's not day three of the draft. It's not undrafted free agents. It's free agents. It's veterans. It's guys who... It's second-round

1:12:54Robert Mays: picks and free agents. It's those two pools of guys. Those two pools give you a lot of viable players in the position. That's real. That, I think, is the difference that people are missing here. And it's not the paying thing, because the money has gone down to the point where I think it's probably a pretty good value. I think guys should get paid more. I think running backs on the whole are underpaid. But it's the opportunity cost of we can't get that other guy at that premium position that we are not going to be able to fill otherwise i i i don't think jeremiah love is not one of the top five players in this draft i don't think he has the ability i think he has the ability to be one of the five most explosive players in this draft but i i just feel like you are it's so much harder to find players in other positions that i still feel like i come back to those same concerns about guys in the top five of the draft.

1:13:43Robert Mays: I typically do too. And the opportunity cost part of this, again, to me is very real. And I just think that where you're finding impact players at these positions, it's almost every single spot. It is just much more consistently happening in the top half of the first round of the first round overall than it is at running back. So I'm with you on that. I just think that we've gone a little bit too far the other way. And I think that there are plenty of arguments as to why drafting a running back in the first half of the first round is a better proposition now than we made it out to be seven or eight years ago.

1:14:13Robert Mays: The last thing I'll say about this, and I had a really good conversation with the executive last week just about this idea and just kicking around all of these theoretical things that we're talking about. Well, like the surplus value of this and the opportunity costs and all of this other stuff. This is about getting enough bets right to stay at the table. that's what this is about right sure it's a it's about making a but it but it but it's it is but it mostly is even even beyond job security building the right team it's just about assembling and and acquiring as many good players as you possibly can and i and i do think that there is an argument to be made and i've talked to analytics people about this recently that jeremiah love is probably the safest player in the draft.

1:15:02Robert Mays: It's not as safe as you want it to be. It's probably closer to like 60 % like you're talking about rather than 90%, but it still is a little bit safer. And so the idea that you feel safer about Jeremiah Love becoming a good player for you compared to the premium position players that you could draft at that spot, I do think that is a solid argument as to why you should take Jeremiah Love over those other premium position players, because I think we can remove ourselves a little bit from all the theoretical shit about surplus value and opportunity costs and everything else. We shouldn't do that all the time, but we can a little bit more often than we do.

1:15:39Okay, this is the nihilist in me. I don't trust their opinions. I don't... If you could show me the guy who knows for sure, this is like a classic... I love when I read people talk about the draft and they're like, don't overthink it. Take the guy. Don't overthink it. And it's like, who's arguing to overthink it? Who's like, oh, no, you should take a kicker in round one. I think that's the appropriate level of thought of this topic. If it's that simple, teams would be doing it. And it's not that simple. Like, I see your point. And I think you're making a nuanced point that I generally agree with.

1:16:19But I do think that our confidence level in talking about these guys as like, well, this guy is safer than that guy. I don't think we've earned the right. And I tend to agree with you most of the time.

1:16:59you're getting a$40 million a year player at a position it's really hard to find elsewhere. And that doesn't mean you should feel this equal level of confidence, but I think it's probably closer to equal than GMs and people who have their jobs on the line in a way that I do not make it out to be. It's very easy to be me and just throw up your hands and be like, oh, I don't know, whatever. I recognize there's a real privilege in doing that. It's not my problem if, you know, Jerry Ryle left himself to be a superstar. are. I'll be okay. It's easy to throw those bombs from the outside. But I just, the evidence says we stink at this.

1:17:37And I think that's the part where if you have no faith in your ability to actually find the guy, take the biggest swing possible. Get to the position that you can't fill elsewhere. Because I really do think you can evaluate running backs really well at this point once they're in the league. I think once you get to free agency, you can evaluate guys at a much higher level.

1:17:56Robert Mays: Do you think that's dismissing the process a little bit too much though? Because I go to that, I go to that same argument. I said exactly what you just said like three weeks ago on this show. And again, I'm trying to like push back against it. And that's why we're having this discussion. No, no, no, for sure. The idea that none of this matters. So just draft the premium positions every single time. Like I think that's, I, I've gone to that too often too. I think that's a little bit too dismissive of the fact that there is a real process that goes into this i i to be clear this is not just oh fire all your scouts and your executives that's what you're saying hire a 12 year old give them uh field yates or jane brugler's big board and just draft off that there is a process to this and i do think that all that process is it matters and is meaningful what i am saying is that the variance in a single year or a single three-year period of that process swamps any confidence i have in the ability to pick guys when you're talking about teams where the ocs are changing every couple years where the coaching staff is changing where the gms who drafted the guys are disappearing like the the the noise swamps the signal so significantly where if if i could actually get a look at ashton junte on 32 teams i feel really confident saying like yeah on who's the broncos for example i think ashton junte would have been like an offensive rookie of the year candidate with the broncos last year i think he's that good of a player the broncos were that good of an offense um they had the infrastructure for him to succeed they wouldn't play from ahead they would have had a great coach who can get the most out of him, but he wasn't on the Broncos.

1:19:37We don't get to see these guys on 32 teams. And so it's so hard to evaluate. With other positions, you might not need to. And that plays into this. Maybe not. That's true. That's a very good point. But how do we know? How can we feel confident that even if we do get to see a guy play well and we're like, oh, that guy's a hit or that guy's a bust, I don't feel confident that we can even get the data to have the answer to that question, let alone have meaningful differences. That's what makes this such a tough thing to judge. And so that's why I feel like it is harder to gauge, not because the process is useless, just because the outcomes are so difficult to parse.

1:20:16And the distinction between what the process delivers and what the outcome delivers, it's so hard to draw a clear line between those two things.

1:20:25Robert Mays: The idea that we're better at identifying running back prospects in the first half of the first round that is anecdotally true over the last 10 years that's a sample size of like seven dudes like it just hasn't happened often enough to feel great about it but i i know people who are extremely analytically inclined in the nfl who have come to adopt that mindset where it's like i'm fine taking it running back in the top 10 because for the if you look at the impact guys they're coming from the top 10 we actually have gotten much better at identifying those players but that sentiment is based on very little when you think about like the history of the league very little but you know what you know what if you're an nfl gm you might get seven top 100 picks before you get fired like that might be it for you like like this is not a league where you get eight nine years to draft that makes it also tougher to evaluate these gms right i mean i go back to john schneider who has been around for a long time and you know going back to the jamal adams trade seahawks fans being like we don't we don't need those first-time picks he's gonna f***ed him up anyway.

1:21:26Robert Mays: Didn't you hear, though, that all the bad things that the Seahawks did were because of Pete Carroll? Well, you go back further, all the good things the Seahawks did were because of Scott McLuhan. So that cycle of life changes where it's never John Schneider, good or bad, apparently. I think he probably was the guy doing most of those things that was pretty darn good at it the entire time. I go back to Howie. I mean, Howie would be a great example of, like, give me a three-year window of Howie. You might get incredible draft picks. you might get him getting yelled at you might get Jalen Rager you might get Andre Dillard and like it's the same dude that's what makes it so tough is that the process of evaluating would this guy have been a great pick everywhere you might find guys where they would have bused everywhere they would have been great picks everywhere it is so hard to gauge this stuff and so I think that makes it so hard to actually judge the process because the outcomes are so muddled so the Titans take Jeremiah Love in the top five what's your reaction going to be?

1:22:27I do think of these teams who could take a running back in the top five in a typical year, Tennessee is better suited for a running back than most of them. They've invested a ton on their offensive line. I don't know if a lot of those guys are good, but Peter Skronsky is good. That's one. They have a quarterback who I believe in, Cam Ward. I think he needs help. It's not their most pressing need. I would say in the long term, it's probably not the right thing for them. I think they need edge more than they need running back, but I would rather they take a running back than Arizona.

1:23:01Robert Mays: Yeah, Arizona to me is crazy. It's crazy to me. To me, the actual place I want Jeremiah left to go is Washington.

1:23:14I'm okay with that. Offensive line's already there. You have offensive infrastructure. You have a quarterback who needs help. He's going to help you in terms of changing the numbers in the box in the quarterback run game. You want to work from under center. I do think that's the spot that feels best to me for Jeremiah Love.

1:23:32Robert Mays: I think overall my stance on this is that I've softened on it. When you consider all of the variables in every single category, I do think that in really sitting with them, my stance has been a little bit too hard line when it comes to when you can do this and when it's okay and why it's okay. Because I do think enough stuff has changed, and I do think we over-index too many of these variables when we're talking about taking a running back and what it really means and what it prevents you from doing. I feel better. I feel like top running backs are underpaid. I feel like paying running backs I'm much more inclined to do than I would have been a decade ago.

1:24:18drafting running backs in the top 10. I'm a little nervous about, although I do think, like you said, there is a sample of some positives here and there. I'm not as on board with that as you are, but I do think the idea that like, again, James Cook should be making 16, 17 million dollars a year and he's making 11 and a half. That doesn't seem fair.

1:24:37Robert Mays: I think that's the right place to land. I will say I still have a lot of, I would have a lot of hesitance about it because of the opportunity cost stuff. That's what it gets to for me. It's not even the money anymore. Like the money is not the most important factor. And when we were talking about this recently, I think I went to the money first. I think I went to the 40 million versus 15 million. I think that was the first thing I said. And I think this is more to me about where you can find these players. It's a more, it's a scarcity argument over a surplus value argument to me is the most compelling point among all of these.

1:25:10Robert Mays: And I don't think I've gone to that place often enough in having this discussion. I agree. So just get Kenny Gainwell, and you're fine. As long as you have a really good offensive line. As long as you have a quarterback who wants to throw swing screens like 30 % of the time, you're going to have a really good receiving back. I'm glad we brought this about around to Aaron Rodgers. That's exactly where I wanted to end this discussion. Bill Barnwell, thank you very much for the time, sir. I know it's a busy week. We all got a lot going on. Tell people where they can read all of your wonderful musings about the National Football League.

1:25:51ESPN.com. Last thing I wrote when you guys listened to this would probably be about the Dexter Lawrence trade, which I don't know. I'm intrigued. I mean, like I said, third time in the last 25 years a team has traded a top 10 pick for a player. I like Dexter Lawrence. I don't know if he was worth a top 10 pick. generally okay with it yeah that's fair I'm generally okay with it like they their window

1:26:22Robert Mays: and like where you have to find these guys and again this gets back to me with like I said this immediately I broke down for like two minutes on our show because we happened over the weekend but I get back to a place where you just can't find players like this in free agency they just don't exist and the idea of trading a top 10 pick for one that seems like a ton but Quinta Williams went for way more than a top 10 pick first of all when you combine the value of those two picks and the Bengals have tons of money to spend. You're never going to be able to spend all of your free agent money on worthwhile players anymore.

1:26:53Robert Mays: It's just not going to happen based on where the cap is. So you're going to have to trade draft capital for it. This is a weak draft. And if you look at the way the draft could play out, for a team like the Giants, who could justify drafting an offensive lineman, who probably need an offensive lineman, who need a receiver, there's so many different directions you could go with a 10th overall pick. For the Bengals, they need a defensive player. It is not hard to picture a scenario where Styles, Love, all the pass rushers are gone by the time they pick a 10, and they're sitting there being like, we'd rather f***ing have Dexter Lawrence.

1:27:22Robert Mays: I understand landing in that place, even if it's a real premium. I would have waited until draft day maybe to make that trade then. That's fair. That's fair. Or I would have traded up. Or maybe I would have signed Trey Hendrickson and held on to the 10th overall pick and just not giving up 10th overall pick to get the good defensive player. But I mean, your arguments are not, they're not invalid. I just, I just like draft picks as it turns out. Maybe too much. I think some of us like draft picks too much. And that brings it all back around. All right. Barnwell, thank you very much for the time, my friend.

1:28:00Robert Mays: We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks, buddy. All right, guys. That's all we got for today. We will be here tomorrow night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern. me, Dane Brugler, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen, Bruce Feldman, live on the Athletic Football Show YouTube page, breaking down every pick of the first round. And then we will be back, except for Bruce, the other four of us. We'll be back on Friday doing the exact same thing, 6.30 p.m. Eastern, with rounds two and three. Two of my favorite nights of the year. Very much looking forward to it. Please come and join us. We would really appreciate it. For now, that's all we got.

1:28:36Robert Mays: Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:29:09while I get the job done. No bills in sight.

1:29:12Robert Mays: What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search X-E-R-O for your free trial. Conditions apply. Investing with Schwab is like spending a Saturday at a great farmer's market. You can fill your reusable tote with a bit of everything. Maybe you go for some free-range, self-directed investing, or perhaps you pick up a few farm-fresh trades while you peruse. You can even get help from a dedicated advisor. That's full-service wealth management. Mix, match, and change your mind whenever you want. Because at Schwab, you can invest your way. No matter your goals or appetite for investing, Schwab has everything you need, all in one place.

1:29:49Visit schwab.com to learn more.

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