Divisional Round Preview: The best weekend of the NFL season

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. this show. Let's get to it. Me, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen, Divisional Weekend. Here we go.

0:41I say it every year when we get here, and I definitely feel it. Last night, I'm sitting in this office. I'm watching Bears tape, getting ready for this, and it just kept hitting me over and over and over again. This is the best football weekend of the year. This is the best football games that we're going to be digging into today for divisional weekend, which is my favorite two day stretch of the NFL calendar. And such a new looking divisional weekend too, like with the exception of Josh Allen being here. And I guess you could throw in Matthew Stafford as well. Just so many fresh faces, so many new guys to look at.

1:20Ironically, I can hear Houston fans reminding me that the Texans have been here the last couple of years as well. But the whole vibe of this weekend feels new and different to me, at least, than it has over the last four or five years. And even though the Texans are mild underdogs this weekend, I still think they come into divisional weekend with different aspirations for the end of their season. Like, even if you had faith in what the Texans defense was over the last couple of years, this is the first time I feel like the Texans defense is good enough, Derek, for them to win the Super Bowl because of the Texans defense.

1:50They are like the epitome of what we talked about this being like a weird season where there are different paths to winning, where I think even as recently as like halfway through this season, we were like, no, you got to bet on the quarterbacks. Like we even when you did our like whittling down the table at the end, we were like, no, we're still picking the quarterbacks. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, their teams are going to be fine. We're at a point now where it's like, is the Texans defense the best single unit left? Like to me, it's probably them or the Seahawks defense, right?

2:17Yeah, I think that's I think that's right. I think those are the two best single units left. I mean, the Patriots, the Rams offense was the best offense in the league, but I think they've shown more vulnerabilities in the back half of the year than either the Texans or the Seahawks defense has. So I think that's right. And we talked about it on that cutting down the table show, this idea that if you look back at the final four for the last 10 years, I think there was one team in the final four that did not finish top 10 in EPA per play on offense. And it was the 2015 Broncos. If the Texans win this game, they will be one of those teams.

2:46Like they will be a historical outlier in the final four if they win this game. And I like Derek said, I think that speaks to what kind of season we've been dealing with here. Giving new hope to all future teams that start 0-3 can point to the 2025 Texans as a reason to not lose faith. Yeah, just have the best defense in like a handful of years. Piece of cake. All of these games are presented by BetMGM. We're just going in chronological order with all four of these. Kicking things off with Bills at Broncos. Broncos are one point favorites at home. This game is like, it's annoying you. You have anxiety over this game.

3:23I, so we were just talking about this before we did, before we started recording, like the way you prep for these shows, you try to allot a certain amount of hours per game to rewatch some games, watch some film, look at some stats and just really take a deep dive. And yesterday I looked up at the clock on my laptop and I had spent like four or five hours in a Broncos, Broncos, Broncos, Bill's wormhole. And I was like, holy shit, I've got to move on to something else. Like I have been trying to get to the bottom of this game for so long that I'm like behind schedule. And it gives me anxiety. This is a, it's a deeply annoying game for me.

4:03It's the best quarterback left in the field against the one seed. A, a, a team that has won 14 games, uh, has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are seventh in total DVOA for this season. But a weird team. I think that's completely fair to say. The Denver Broncos are one of this. The 2025 Denver Broncos are one of just four teams I could find in the Super Bowl era to lose three games or less and have a point differential of less than 100. So this is a very complete team, but a very flawed 14 win team, in my opinion. and then a Bills team that has Josh Allen and it definitely has things going for it, but is a beat to shit, flawed roster in its own right.

4:47And I don't know, trying to have a definitive opinion about who wins this game, I think is a fool's errand. The Broncos won 14 games. They're playing a very flawed Bills team and it's a coin flip game at home. They're one point favorites. I think that says a lot with the sixth seed going to play the number one seed. So I think that speaks to the dynamics around this game. There's another game we're going to talk about that was the version of it. But what you just said about just the complete lack of an ability to find a handle on it. There's one of those waiting for us a little bit later. That was my version of that.

5:18I think I have a better handle on this game for a few different reasons. One, we saw it happen in the playoffs last year. And so I think it's easier for me to understand what the Bills path forward might be on offense, even if the Broncos defense is slightly different. Like I can picture the way that the Bills would need to win this game in a way that's a little bit more difficult for me a little bit later on with one of the games that we're going to talk about. And I do think that the Broncos' specific vulnerabilities on defense this year, we've seen it creep up enough times where I'm like, okay, that seems like something consistent that you can tap into.

5:50And so for me, Derek, this is a game where I have a clearer picture of it than maybe a couple of the other games we're going to dig into today. I kind of think so too. Like, I also think there's a part of it where like, even if you're a little bit uneasy about like, Like, OK, this is a very flawed Bills offense going against a Broncos defense that has mostly been pretty good, had a couple of stumbles at the back end of the year. You can also still like very easily picture a game where Josh Allen just kind of goes nuclear, even with a lot of the issues that they've had. Yes, I do think what makes this game a lot different than the last game that they played in the playoffs last year.

6:23Last year, the Broncos got ran all over by the Bills like the Bills ran the ball incredibly well. A lot of that was them putting six offensive linemen on the field. And they have only really done that like a dozen times this entire season. That's mostly because they now have Jackson Hawes who can do a lot of that stuff. Because really, if you're going six offensive linemen, you're just saying like, we don't have anyone else who can block. So we're just going to go put this guy out there. Now they have Hawes who can do that. And so it's still a lot of the same concepts. But I do actually think the Bills being a little lighter actually does work a little bit more in the Broncos favor.

6:55Personnel wise, the Broncos are also just way better than they were in that game. Like the linebackers in that game were Cody Barton and Justin Sternod. This year, it's going to be Alex Singleton and Drake Greenlaw. I think even if Greenlaw is not 100 percent, I think that that is a pretty huge get for them. And then the down safety in that game was P.J. Locke, who's like a fine rotational backup safety. Now it's Talanoa Hufanga, who is one in all pro and two, like just wants to hit and kill people. I actually do think the Broncos are a lot more equipped to handle their run game in this game. Did you see the quote from Hufunga this week Where he was like He was like yeah Last year like lingers in our mind And we've got a chip on our shoulder I know I wasn't here for it But like I want to be part of the get back I was like alright let's go man It seems like a man who's looking for any sled He can possibly find at all times I do think it's funny that If you looked at the Greenlaw and Hufunga moves You could probably tie those To the way that the Broncos season ended And now they're playing against the team that ended their season last year.

7:55I do think there's something beautiful about that. Before we get into the individual sides of the ball in this game, you mentioned that the Bills are just beat to shit. And just hitting that specifically, it looks like Ed Oliver might be back in this game, which is obviously huge. Terrell Bernard is going to be back, potentially. But you look at the guys who are not going to play in this game. Jordan Poyer likely not going to play in this game. Terrell Shavers and Gabe Davis tore their ACLs last week. So the Bills are down to three healthy receivers. If Curtis Samuel plays, that gives them four, but he hasn't played for half the season at this point.

8:30And Maxwell Hairston is hurt. And so the Bills are pretty beat up heading into this game, which I think that is something to consider when you think about how this thing might go. Doesn't it kind of say at all that Curtis Samuel, I believe he was a full participant on Thursday, as well as DeMar Hamlin. and that news was celebrated by Bills fans, like this huge development. I was like, you know you're beat to shit if this is getting you excited, if Curtis Samuel being part of this makes you feel relieved, which it should based on the injuries that they've had to deal with. It was a strange experience because going back and watching the game this morning, I was like, oh man, I forgot that Damar Hamlin was the starter for the Bills at safety.

9:11And it's like, oh man, Damar Hamlin might have to start at safety for the Bills again because I'm not sure they want Jordan Hancock in that spot after the way the things looked last week when he had to play. All right, let's dig into when the Bills have the ball in this game. Derek, you touched on it a little bit, but I feel like the Bills had a very specific approach last year. They had 16 plays where they went jumbo, according to NextGen, against the Broncos defense. They ran the ball efficiently. This version of the Bills against this version of the Broncos, what is the first thing you're looking for on that side of the ball?

9:43I mean, run game-wise, they probably will try to do a lot of the same stuff, right? Like like in terms of the run concepts they were getting to a lot of the weak zone, a lot of the duo like they can run that exactly out of their 12 and 13 personnel stuff the same way they did out of their six offensive linemen stuff. So whether or not the edges can hold up and honestly, the linebackers coming up and hitting and really forcing those plays to cut early. I think that was actually what Jacksonville did really, really well. And so I think I'm going to be looking at that. and then the other part of it to me in the passing game we've talked a lot this year about how denver's defense there's more to it than you think like i think we imagine them of just like oh they're sending five and playing man coverage all the time and they that's still like kind of what they major in but it's a lot more zone i think they bring more like simulateds and weird stuff than you think that they do but i think this is a game where it's like go back to your roots let's just rush five and six let's ask them to play man because i know the bills passing game can beat you in other ways like with Kincaid maybe they hit uh you know some of the guys out of the backfield but if on the 13 14 times they have to throw to wide receivers we're just manning them up and beating them I think that that's how you as the Broncos kind of choke this game out that's exactly what I said is it's and I think it's good on your part Derek and you've pointed this out a few times this year to say the Broncos do more than what is ascribed to them like they don't just play man and do cover one and all that type of high leverage stuff.

11:11But this is a game where you probably can. This is a game where it would make sense if you want to crowd the box and just single them up. I mean, the Bills lost three receivers to season-ending injuries over the last two weeks. And this receiver core has been a source of consternation for them all season long. I mean, I would like to think you can man up what they have available, whether it's Curtis Samuel, whether it's Keon Coleman, and just force them to do things the hard way and trust that you're going to win those matchups far more often than you don't. This feels like a week where the stereotypical Broncos game plan would work very nicely.

11:52The Broncos played about half man coverage last year when these two teams played, and the Bills picked on them a little bit in the playoff game. The Bills receiving core is not as good as it was last year, which is crazy because we were hemming and hawing about how bad it was by the end of last year. That's how depleted they are. And if you look at this year specifically, the Bills are just a tick above average in almost any metric you want to look at against teams that play man coverage against them. They're top five in success rate EPA per drop back when teams play zone coverage against them.

12:19Like they just don't have the horses if you can really challenge them in that way. And obviously the Broncos are equipped to challenge them. And so I'm 100 % with Derek. Like I think this is one of those games where you play a lot of man if you're the Broncos and you dare those guys to beat you. The run game part of it specifically, Derek and I are on the same page. If you look at what the Bills did last year to the Broncos and how they ran the ball, it's the same stuff the Bills want to do now. And it's probably the same way I would attack the Broncos on a couple different fronts. Like they just tried to cave in or cave out those edges.

12:51You're just trying to move those guys in the same way we saw them do against Jacksonville last week. And even if it's Jackson Hawes instead of Alexander, those guys are still small, right? Like those are still undersized edges if you can kind of get some push in that space. And then the other part of it is you watch the huge Josh Jacobs run that happened in the Broncos game or in the Packers game. That's just straight downhill duo and that the Broncos, you can get them a little bit doing that exact kind of stuff. And that's what the bills want to be. And so who the bills want to be in the run game, I actually think even if the Broncos run defense is excellent, those are the specific areas I would try to run the ball against this team.

13:28And actually to that point about double teams I actually think that the specific guy you can pick on there to me is Zach Allen I think Zach Allen is great in a lot of ways but his body type is actually really poorly set up for him to handle double teams he's kind of has a thinner smaller like lower body relative to how big and tall he is and it's he's like a very top heavy guy so if he gets off balance just a little bit he gets moved pretty quickly and so you actually see that in a lot of these games where where they struggle to give up some of these interior runs like yeah you can just knock him uh knock him off So if they can get a double team with, you know, Deion Dawkins and David Edwards and they're just getting under him, like that's a good way to just dig out like eight, 10 yards pretty consistently.

14:07One thing we've kept coming back to consistently this season for the Broncos is they can give up some explosive passes to tight ends. That that has happened in a lot of the games where offenses have had some moments. It happened in the Giants game multiple different times. The Packers got a couple to Luke Musgrave. Brent Strange had an explosive in the Jacksonville game. and that's another area where that's the only shot the Bills have based on the players that they have right now. Like this feels to me like the sort of game where Dalton Kincaid needs two explosive catches. I was going back and watching the last playoff game and the first drive of that game, the Bills come out, 12 personnel, little why-why look where both of the tight ends are in line next to each other on the same side.

14:49It's under center play action. Dawson Knox starts running a big crosser left to right and then bends it back outside. It's a 25-yard completion. Like Derek pointed out, different personnel for the Broncos right now, but that's the sort of stuff where I think you need a couple of those in this game if you're going to have a shot. A funny thing I looked up on True Media, which is probably a good thing for Denver, to be honest, but they have the worst success rate in the league on targets to tight ends. But I would imagine that's a lot of checkdowns and safety blanket throws. Still, though. But A, you can do it.

15:20And so to have really two guys in Knox and Kincaid who can be that for Josh, and then you just alluded to it, but the number is 17 explosives to tight ends this year. And it wasn't just Green Bay. Jacksonville did it a few weeks ago. Washington, Zach Ertz, remember that? Remember how jarring that was? So you can hit them. So if those two guys can be the most consistent piece of your offense, and if Denver's willing to give it up, fine. but then also scheme them into two or three of those big type of plays. You mentioned the Brenton Strange explosive last week against the Bills, ironically, where he was, I think he was like a lead blocker in the backfield and they like schemed him through the line.

16:07That's exactly what happened against the Broncos. Yeah, and the Broncos as well. And then we talked about it before the show. The Chiefs hit, or against the Chiefs, the Bills hit all three of their tight ends for an explosive in that game. in various ways. It's that type of stuff I think you're going to want to come up with rather than trusting Brandon Cooks to beat Riley Moss or Patrick Sertan on any kind of consistent basis. Top to bottom, the Bills offense is outmanned against the Broncos and how good the Broncos offense or defense has been this year. But I think there are specific things that the Bills can tap into that they want to tap into that give them a path in this game.

16:41And I think it's worth mentioning because too often when we do these sorts of previews, we don't say shit like this. Josh Allen is the best player in this game. Josh, the fact that Josh Allen is the best player, you just sort of take that for granted after a while, but you're so right. And this has been a great year for not overvaluing that. But then you look at what happened last week and it's just like, oh yeah, they have the best player. Like that does matter sometimes in a game like this. It a hundred percent matters. Like, especially to against the defense. I know we just like talked about a couple of ways that you can pick on the Broncos defense, but ultimately this is a defense that like the style that they play, you kind of just have to like flamethrower and out talent them in some ways.

17:19I'm not sure the rest of the Bills offense can do that. I know that Josh Allen can have like a half dozen moments if he needs to. What is your confidence level, Derek, that the Bills are able to tap into those things that we're talking about? Or do you think that because of what they're rolling out there right now and where the Broncos defense is, this is just one of those games where they get snuffed out? I'm a little bit worried unless Josh Allen as an individual has like five or six truly incredible moments. I'm just not sure they're going to be able to get enough in the passing game. Like I won't be surprised if we get two or three of those chunks to Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, whatever it is.

17:53I just those still need to be supplemented by like a really good run game and finding a couple of downfields to Brandon Cooks or whoever it is. I just this Broncos secondary, even if they've been a little bit gettable at times, still a lot better than Jacksonville secondary. And I think it's going to be harder for them to live that way the way that they did last week. Do you think it's a non-starter that the Bills can impose their will? Like, does last week against Jacksonville linger too heavily in the mind? I think impose their will is strong. That would be impressive. If the Bills run game controlled this game, I would be surprised.

18:30If they were more successful this week than they were last week against the Jags, that wouldn't surprise me. And that's not because the Broncos are a worse run defense than Jacksonville. I just thought that it was a kind of shockingly bad performance by the bills run game last week. I think they just need to like keep the heart rate steady. That's it. Yeah. They just, they just need to not get blown off the ball. They were for all, but like four runs last week. Yeah. If they can just have like an average rushing day, not even average for them. Cause average for them is pretty damn good, but just like average in general, that might be enough to just like let Josh Allen have the moments that he needs better than most teams perform against the Broncos.

19:06Yes. Like that's that that's the bar that is worth clearing here. One other thing I want to mention, because we've talked about the receiver injuries, you would think that with all these injuries that the bills might go back to the whole 21 and 22 thing. And remember, like we talked about that midway through the season, like Reggie Gilliam had that moment. And it was something that we talked about a lot when we talked about the bills. Don't get me wrong. The bills have like they've always used a lot of 11 personnel this year. but over the last three games, they've ticked all the way up to 74 % 11 personnel.

19:38Like they've just kind of gone away from that. I don't know if Denver's the team that you want to try to go back to that against, but it could be on the table considering the injuries you're dealing with. I wonder if we just see more 12 because they don't have enough receivers to play that way. And they haven't played much 12 personnel this year. I think it's like 11 % of snaps when I was looking at it on True Media this morning, but do they have to do something a little bit different just because of the cards that they're playing with right now. Let's talk about the other side of the ball. Derek, the number one thing you're looking for when the Broncos have the ball against the Bills in this game.

20:10So I think what's interesting is like, everyone loved the game plan that Sean McDermott threw against the Jacks. And I think they absolutely, that defense threw a heater. What I think is different about that game against the Jaguars compared to this game is the Jaguars passing offense. Their dropback passing game is like, Like we want as many people out in the outside of whenever they're doing their play action stuff. Like they want people out in the progression. They want four and five out. They want Trevor Lawrence to like go through the entire field, all that stuff. When you are changing coverages and like doing weird stuff on the back end, you can catch the quarterback every now and then doing that.

20:44That's just like not how the Broncos passing game really operates to me. It's a lot more of like we're taking our one on one shots outside of the numbers, like pre snap, like kind of just like alerting that it's a lot of RPOs. It's a lot of screens. It's a lot of underneath stuff. Like it's just a much different consideration that I just don't really think a lot of that disguise stuff is as valuable in a game like this as it was last week. I think that's totally fair. And when I went back and I was looking at the way the Broncos played this year and just what we've seen from the Bills secondary specifically, the thing I kept coming back to was the outside corners for the Bills need to be really, really good in this game.

21:23And I believe that they can be. Christian Benford's a really good player, and we've seen what Trey White has done recently. He's had a really nice season. And so I do feel like if we had said in week four that Trey White would be a divisional round starter for the Bills against the Broncos, I think you'd be a little bit worried about what Cortland Sutton could do to him in this game. But we're really not in that place considering how well he's played this season. But I think both of those guys need to play really well. And I expect Benford to be on Cortland Sutton a good majority of this game because I think he's played across the number one receiver on like 47 % of snaps per next gen this season.

22:00So he has traveled like a decent amount. I expect him to do that again. They need to be really good in this game because I agree with Derek and the numbers bear it out. The Broncos this season have 105 passes between the numbers that have traveled five or more air yards. 105. That is bottom seven in the league. They are top seven in the league in their numbers of in the number of throws five or more air yards outside the numbers. And anecdotally, we understand that about the Broncos, but the numbers will tell you the same thing. They want to attack outside, and they want to get those one-on-ones, and how the Bills' corners hold up in those one-on-one situations I think goes a long way in figuring this out.

22:35And how the Bills handle their potential injuries at safety as well. I'm ripping this off purely from our guy, Aaron Schatz, who does such great work, but I thought it was such an interesting stat. The Bills have the second-best defensive DVOA in the league when they run too high. which is great and it's a great way to try to keep that stuff from happening but jordan poyer's dealing with a hamstring injury is that damar hamlin is it jordan hancock who i thought had a couple nice moments in that game moving picked on him okay thank you yeah a couple nice moments moving toward the line of scrimmage uh everything else was was a bit dicier so depending on what that looks like you might be able to take advantage of that more than the numbers would suggest for the year.

23:19I also think with the safety injuries, it actually plays into Derek's point that maybe you're less inclined to try to disguise as much when you don't have somebody like Poyer out there who is saying he's fluent in this system understates it, right? Like, he helped create it and make it what it is. Don't quote the deep magic to him. He was there when it was made. The other area of this side of the ball that obviously we have to talk about, how well can the Broncos run the ball in this game? Because we saw it last week. Like, even if the Bills can funky shit up on the back end and can make things really hard on you and their past defense is built for these sorts of playoff moments, the run defense is eminently gettable.

23:58The Jags, when they ran the ball on the perimeter last week, they did what they wanted to. And to me, this is, it's an area where could we get to a stalemate for the Bills defense and how important would that be? RJ Harvey this season per next gen, second lowest explosive run rate in the league among running backs with at least 100 carries. And so if you can limit some of those explosive runs, if you're the Bills, I think that's a big deal. I know I said that I was struggling to get a handle on this, but mainly because I don't know how that's going to go. Like if you can tell me how the Broncos run the ball, I'll tell you who wins this game.

24:33I think it's the single most important component of this matchup. I think that's fair. I don't think that's oversimplifying. There is enough, like there's enough cause to believe either side of it. Like If you tell me that the Bills gunk this up and keep the Broncos from really doing what they want to, I can believe that. If you tell me that the Broncos have a nice day and it lets Bo Nix hit his layups and run the offense the way that he wants to, that's completely believable too. I think it's easily the biggest piece of this whole thing. The over-under is 45 and a half, like 24 to 21. That kind of feels right.

25:05I feel like that's the range that we're going to be playing in. and the other side that I think is or the other specific element of the Bills defense against the Broncos offense that I think is worth considering Derek mentioned this the Broncos are a team that throws the ball short of the sticks at a top five rate they rely on a lot of yak that's what they want to do they want to throw screens they want to check the ball down they want to get the ball to guys in space and there's this weird disconnect with the Bills where they allow explosive runs at one of the highest rates in the league they were better in the second half of the year but they were still like a bottom 10 team The Bills allowed fewer yards after catch this season per next gen than any defense since 2017.

25:42And so they've been really good at limiting those run after catch opportunities that the Broncos want to have. And so where that comes out, I think will go a long way in determining this thing. Another thing that ties into that, and I wish I had looked into this before the Jags game because it might have affected my opinion of that. The Bills have batted a pass in 16 of their 18 games. They have 20 total batted passes at the line of scrimmage. Deion Walker's tall. Them and the Steelers, man, always getting hands-on passes. But, like, I mean, you're right, but, like, so many guys do it. Remember, like, Benford had that play against the Bengals.

26:16AJ Epinesa's gotten his hands on some footballs this year. Russo's done it plenty. And with the amount of stuff like that that the Broncos like to do, I won't be surprised if the, or let's say, if the Bills manage to get their hands on a couple footballs, it could swing things. And the last thing I'll say to like put a bow on the yak stuff in the run game stuff. I think the Broncos need both of those because they want this to be as few possessions as possible. Like, I know their defense is great, but you want to give Josh Allen as few bites at the apple as possible and only have to make six or seven stops instead of 10.

26:50And so if they can like go on some of these longer drives, nine, 10, play 11 drives, even if on some of them, you're only getting three. I think they kind of have to win that way. the only other thing on that side of the ball I think is worth mentioning Derek I think your point about not really needing to be as funky with the coverages does make sense in this game I still think simulated pressures and not necessarily blitzing because the Broncos haven't been bad when blitz this year but you go back and you watch the game last year and you just think about who Bo Nix is as a quarterback if you're going to flash something in front of him right if you're going to bring a second level defender and you're still going to get seven back in coverage and he sees that little bit of color you can push him out of the pocket quicker than he wants to leave.

27:29And so I think them tapping into some of that. And again, that's not against type with who the bills are. They're more than comfortable dropping those edges off and bringing some linebackers in order to press the pocket that way. And so even if maybe the disguise isn't as important, I think some creativity with the pass rush plan is an important part of this for the bills. I think that's a great point. Cause like the disguising stuff on the backend, that's your, you're trying to bait a quarterback into making a mistake 15 yards down the field over the middle, which you just pointed out. Broncos aren't really doing that anyway.

28:01When you're bringing some of the simulateds and stuff, it's when they're trying to be quick, replacing the blitz, trying to throw some of these RPOs, trying to throw some of these screens that you can get like some sort of free runner or just make him make a mistake. I think that's a great point. All right, before we move on, let's take our first quick break.

28:19Let's get to our next one here. The 49ers at the Seahawks. The Seahawks are seven point favorites in this game. It is the only line that is more than three and a half per BetMGM as we record this. It kind of feels right to me. Like when I went back and I started digging into this, I was like, yeah, it does feel like the Seahawks have kind of a significant upper hand as we get into it. Well, yeah, I mean, you can't let the Eagles game completely color your opinion of the 49ers. Like this is a team from a personnel perspective that just does not have a full deck of cards. So I will just say I do I will continue to ride for the 49ers in the sense that this is a division rivalry it is the second time in three weeks that they will be playing each other I think very highly of Kyle Shanahan and Robert Sala I think I think this will be I don't I would be surprised if this is a walk for the Seahawks or if it is it would be the type of game where like it doesn't start to get out of control until the fourth quarter but I like even if I understand why of the Seahawks are favored by a full touchdown.

29:25I don't think San Francisco will make it that easy on them. I actually sort of took the other end of that, which I will talk about the Seahawks offense and what they might do. But in my mind, when I look at this game, Mike McDonald getting an extra week of prep for a team that he's played twice and just played with how deep and talented this defense is. I like I love Kyle Shanahan. The Niners have a handful of good players. This just seems really difficult for me to build the case for how this offense is going to do enough. A handful of good players is so patronizing. But I get your point. But that handful is smaller than it used to be.

30:01With what they got left, I mean, I don't know. If Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall play, it's a bigger handful than you had a couple weeks ago. Just ignore the part where George Kittle's out for the year. Just don't mention that. Yeah, I think, I don't think it's going to be a walk. I don't. I think the last game wasn't. I mean, even if the Seahawks defense was dominant for most of that game, if the Niners score a touchdown on that drive where Purdy throws the interception on that throw to McCaffrey in the flat, it does become a game deep into the second half. And so I think my hardest time with this, and we can start with this side of the ball, Derek, I just have a hard time figuring out what the path is for this Niners team without George Kittle to score more than 20 points against the Seahawks.

30:45I feel like 17 would be a win based on where the Niners are right now, based on what the Seahawks defense is and also just how equipped I think the Seahawks have shown they are to take away what the Niners want to do. That's exactly where I'm at. And like, granted, 17, I guess, would have won them the last game. But again, I'd say you're - But that's the point, right? It might in this game, but I think 17 is like where I sit with it. I 100 % agree, because I think it comes down to like a lot of different things. One, I just think, I've talked about before when we talked about the Rams and the Seahawks.

31:16Matthew Stafford is, I think, uniquely equipped to beat the Seahawks defense, especially over the middle. They are the best defense at squeezing windows over the middle, making those 10 to 20 yard throws in between the numbers really, really difficult. That's what the Niners want to do. And I think Purdy typically is good at those, but against the Seahawks, because of how tight a lot of the windows are and how quickly they're squeezing those, you need a lot more velocity than I think Brock Purdy typically brings. And so I think some of those, those are going to be tough for him. we've talked about before too I think a lot of Brock Purdy's worst moments are as a passer are when you squeeze the space in front of him we saw on the interception that he threw against the Eagles where they crush the pocket in front of him he doesn't want to throw that drifter out that's right there he turns back to his left and then there's more pressure in his face and he kind of just freaks out and throws an interception anyway so the Seahawks with guys like Demarcus Lawrence Leonard Williams like all their guys are pocket crushers they are built to do that and then the last element of it to me the Niners could not and really did not try not to run the ball at all in the last matchup I think they only had 12 rushing plays and hardly any of them worked now you don't have George Kittle who and I know you'll have Trent Williams back so there's a little bit of a push and pull there but that to me probably comes out in the wash and I'm assuming the Seahawks defense is going to have a lot of answers once again what's my rebuttal and fair and I do think this would be very tough for the 49ers, but I go back to the availability of Trent Williams and the availability of Ricky Pearsall.

32:44I'm basing any optimism for San Francisco on the availability of those two players. I have a hard time imagining it going any other way without both of them playing. If Pearsall doesn't play, it's over. It's really hard for me to imagine a world where they're explosive enough in the passing game where they can find even four or five of them over the course of the day to make this possible. If you go back and watch the week 18 game, it just felt like the Seahawks were a wood vice and they were just spinning it on the 49ers like every single snap. Like there was no room. There was no room in the pocket.

33:16There was no room on the field. They didn't honor like any any ability of the Niners to create space like they didn't honor any of it. And so I think you need both of those guys. Ironically, I want to shout out Austin Pleasance, who played left tackle in that game. I thought he played pretty well, all things considered. But having Trent Williams back, I think at least gives you a chance to help Colton McKivitts because you talk about Demarcus Lawrence, Derek, he dominated that game, especially like in the early going before the Seahawks were able to build up a two possession lead. He just he blew so many plays up.

33:52So if you get Trent Williams back and Colton McKivitts can benefit from chips and slides and extra protections and things like that. Maybe it keeps the pocket from getting crushed quite as badly as it did in that game. And then you just, you need a guy like Pearsall who, you know, against the Seahawks, I think it would be tough regardless, but at least gives you somebody who can exploit space and open things up. Because I think, let's be honest, even if Pearsall plays, there's gonna, this game is gonna be so dependent on Christian McCaffrey and hopefully Kyle Juszczyk as well, like taking short passes and doing things with them.

34:33But if you go back and watch that game, when those targets got out, there were four Seahawks on top of those guys immediately because they were in position to get there because they weren't honoring anything downfield. They squeezed the life out of that game. It was unbelievable watching it back, like the boa constrictor of it all. and so yeah I mean I can't imagine the Seahawks scoring more than 17 points even maybe 20 even if things go really well for him and all these guys are healthy but I do think that could give you a shot to get there if you have these guys who could buy Purdy more time and give this offense more of a vertical element than it had in the last game you just felt the pocket condensing and you the space condensing.

35:16And you just watch how limited the Niners passing game felt through the first three quarters of that game. Through three quarters per next gen, Purdy was averaging 3.1 air yards per attempt. He has one other game in the past three years that was under five air yards per attempt. Like it just was a completely neutered version of the Niners passing game. And the one thing, and even in the, so the Seahawks played 71%. split safety coverages on early downs. It was a lot of quarters and it was a lot of cover six. And so, and they're just packing the paint. The Niners do not want to throw the ball outside of the numbers.

35:54That's not where they want to attack people. If you look at it in the second half of the season, the Niners had 37 attempts outside the numbers beyond 10 air yards. That was bottom seven in the NFL. In the second half of that game, that is the space that the Seahawks are giving you because that's where they know you don't want to attack them. And in the second half of that game, those are where some of those chunks started coming for the Niners. In the fourth quarter, they had that big sale route to Kittle. They hit another one that's like a little circus route to Juwan Jennings where he releases inside, bends it back outside into the whole shot.

36:25And then they had a deep comeback to Demarcus Robinson against man coverage on the opening drive of the second half. It was like a third and four. Those are the throws available to you. And those are the throws you're going to have to make in this game, in my opinion, if you're going to have a shot. And that's why the Pearsall thing just feels really, really important. Because if he wasn't playing, I just don't know where some of those chunks come from in a world where Kittle isn't in the game. I 100 % like you could get one or two of those without Pearsall, right? But you probably need five or six.

36:56And if he's not in the game, you're not going to get five or six. The other thing I would note too, I noticed that on a few of those plays. I just think, and when I say trick it up, I'm not talking about trick plays like what they did against the Eagles with Juwan Jennings. I mean, that's cool. If you've got that in the bag, this is a good week for it. But I just think McCaffrey and Juszczyk need to get their steps in in this game. Like, they need to be, they got to be motioning. They got to be moving all over the place. And I don't know if it's going to work. This is a really well-coached defense.

37:26But anything you can do to create conflict and maybe confusion, if Nick Emman worries, not sure if he needs to bump to the flat or worry about the guy in the corner or whatever. Anything you can do to try to gain that edge, you should be doing. I don't know if it'll work, but I would be moving those two guys frequently and on as many snaps as possible. It reminds me of the second half against the Eagles last week when you were manufacturing explosives with that sort of mindset. I think that is where Kyle Shanahan has to be as he approaches this game. The one other thing I want to mention on that side of the ball, the Seahawks for the second straight game against the Niners, They did it in week one.

38:06And part of me thought, okay, is that an echo of how teams are playing against the Niners last year? And are they going to go away from it? They played more man than they typically do. They played like 20 % man on first down against the Niners in week 18. And so I'm them using that as a little bit of a change up and them kind of saying like, we're not afraid of you in these moments. We think we can do this. That's interesting. And then the other element of Seattle's defense that they've really been leaning into in the second half of the season, just because the personnel has changed. They played 78 % dime on third down in week 18.

38:38That is the second highest in any game this season. They've done it at least 40 % of third downs since week 11 because the guys in the secondary are back healthy. And so this was already probably the best defense in the NFL right there with the Texans for the first half of the season, the first 12 weeks. And now their personnel is better than it was over those first 12 weeks. And they have more different things they can tap into. Well, and because, you know, too, specifically for this game, if if you're telling me the Seahawks defense was going to play more man than they usually do and be a little bit lighter than maybe they have at other parts in the season.

39:12The guy on the Niners offense, I would be most terrified is George Kittle, but he's not going to be in this game. And so Seattle can probably continue to do all that stuff the way that they have over the back half of the year. So, if we think it's going to be a tough road For the Niners to put up a lot of points in this game I don't necessarily mean I don't necessarily think that means the Niners have no shot in this game I think there still is a path for them to win this game They just need an ugly day from the Seahawks offense And the question becomes, how realistic is that? And they just held them to 13 points two weeks ago You take that every single time If you're the San Francisco 49ers I don't know if you can duplicate it but you just did it.

39:54So that's one place to start. Do you think that performance lasts in week 18, Derek, where the Seahawks did move the ball pretty efficiently and they shot themselves in the foot multiple times, do you feel like it's more likely that we see another sub-20 point performance from the Seahawks or do you think the down-to-down efficiency speaks to them being better in this game than they were a few weeks ago? I think that they will probably be better than they were in the game a couple of weeks ago. If only for like that was one of the worst performances that they had all season as an offense. I just don't see them doing that twice, especially against I know that the Niners played well in that game and that they've had a couple of decent performances here with that game.

40:37And then obviously, I think they actually played pretty well against the Eagles. This is still a team that is massively, massively outgunned talent wise. And I actually think the secondary does have some guys. And so if they're going to really try to like, you know, make some tough one on ones in the passing game, I think that that could that could happen. But I just think the front, even with Seattle's run game and offensive line not being great, I still think that they are outmanned. And it's more likely to me that they'll be able to be at least get to like twenty one, twenty four in this game, which what we just talked about with the other side of the ball, that should be enough for you.

41:09this feels like a week for Robert Sala to go out on his shield did you know actually San Francisco's pressure rate in that game was 36.7 % which is their best day rushing the quarterback since Nick Bosa got hurt no Charles Cross in that game which he was downgraded to limited this week and Josh Jones is also dealing with an injury we'll see how that goes for a playoff game I'm sure Cross will try everything to be ready for this but you're right that's worth mentioning Even still, I think you just try to play it aggressively as possible. Like, you know that you're outgunned. You know that you probably need some variance in this game.

41:51I would do anything to try to manufacture pressure, which they only blitzed Sam seven times in that game. They forced three incompletions. They got a goal line sack, and they forced the turnover on downs on fourth and goal when they did it. I'd probably dial that up a little bit. Sam Darnold's turned the ball over five times in the last five games, and that doesn't include two other fumbles that the Seahawks managed to fall on. So dialing up the pressure and hoping to cause some chaos feels like a great way to start. That feels like the right path for me. The Niners haven't played much man this year, but they've been above average.

42:25EPA per drop back, 6-ray, anything you want to look at when they have played man coverage, especially on third down. The Seahawks have been decidedly below average in those same metrics against blitzes on third down in the back half of the season. And so those exact moments from the last game where you can kind of create a little bit of variance, I would be challenging them. And I think the real downside to that is you have JSN against these corners, specifically like him on the left side against Renardo Green. And it's not to me the fear, Derek, of like getting beat over the top. It's him just being able to work underneath if Green is going to be playing off of him in man coverage and then just picking at that over and over and over again if you're going to be playing man throughout this game.

43:04that's probably the thing I'm most worried about but that to me feels like the risk reward as you like look at that feels worth it to me if you're the Niners I couldn't agree more like they JSN he's probably going to get his no matter what the Seahawks will probably hit two or three or four explosive passes almost no matter what you need to call plays in a way where you can get yours as well where you can get two or three sacks on Sam Darnold you can force a tight window a throw where he's a little bit crowded maybe it gets tipped up for an interception um you just need to do some of that stuff because i know the seahawks offense has been explosive uh for a lot of the year it's obviously cooled down a little bit but even when they were good they were turning the ball over like sam darnold was giving it up they were still throwing interceptions and i do think that you need to turn up the heat a little bit in a way that tries to get some of that stuff out of them the idea of getting them into some third and sevens third and eights and see if you can force the issue a little bit.

44:00The Seahawks ran the ball well if you look at the total output in that game, but they were explosive, but they weren't that efficient down to down. They finished with a 38 % rushing success rate, but they had six runs of 10 plus yards. And if you look at it, this is mostly true. When they won on the edge, they won in the run game. That's what happened. When they could get the ball onto perimeter, that's where a lot of those plays came from. and I wonder because of that how much does Bryce Huff play on early downs like if the Niners can hold up on the perimeter I do think that if they can limit that to maybe you give up one or two explosive runs and you still keep that down to down success rate down under 40 ish percent that to me feels like one of the building blocks for how you get there and how aggressive do they use the DBs in the run game because that was actually what they did really well last time is they were firing guys off the edge.

44:53They were firing them through like the B gap at certain points, and they were kind of doing their best to supplement their edge players and help them out a little bit. And so when those guys made plays, when maybe Upton Stout was able to squeeze through and get into the backfield or Jair Brown, whoever it was, could get into the backfield, they could make stops. If that guy either missed a tackle or a tight end got enough of them and they were able to spring it to the perimeter, that's when you got your big explosive plays. So I'm curious to see how aggressive they keep that. Which the Niners missed 40 % of their tackle attempts in that game.

45:24Easily their worst performance of the season. Which watching them last week against the Eagles, that's crazy. And it's, I mean, it was a completely different set of linebackers. Obviously they got, they dealt with injuries in this game. So how they handle that and how well they do that as opposed to what they did last time could say a lot. I think it's a tough path for the Niners to carve. This is like threading a needle. For sure. if if they do it i think it's because it's an ugly game i think that's the game the niners have to win i the the idea of the niners winning this game like 31 to 27 i just that that's really really hard for me to picture i don't even know what that seahawks defense giving up that many points would look like have they given up that many points all year the rams that was like that was the thing it's such a that's such a like i can't imagine this 49ers team playing that way like it It just doesn't compute to me.

46:16Even like a 20, 24, 21 Niners win or a 27, 24 Niners win, that's just harder for me to imagine. I think the Niners can win this game if it's in the teens, but I feel like, and that puts a huge onus on their defense, but that's the version of the game that I feel like the Niners are most likely to win if it happens. Both versions of this game were that game, 17-13 and 13-3. I mean, week one is pointless. There's no reason to talk about week one, considering everything that's happened to the Niners since then, But both of these games have followed more defensive scripts. Last thing about the Seahawks Niners game, just because I think we should mention in some capacity, Fred Warner probably not going to play.

46:55He's on the practice field and has been there this week. And the fact that that's even happening, considering his foot was turned sideways, what, like two months ago, is crazy. But it doesn't seem like he's going to be ready for this game specifically. Yeah, that feels... They say maybe if they were to win this game, maybe he'd be available for the NFC Championship. But great for the vibes to have him back on the field. That was wild. All right, we're going to take our last break here and then come back and chat a little Texans-Patriots.

47:28Let's get to the next one here. Texans at Patriots. So, Patriots are three and a half point favorites in this game. The game I was talking about earlier when I was bringing up the game. I had zero feel for whatsoever. This is the one. I have no idea what this is going to look like. It's kind of, it's fun because they're similar games, right? Like, I mean, two of the best defenses in the league this year, two of the best quarterbacks in the league this year. Those are the selling points for both of these teams. Talking about Broncos, Bills, and Patriots, Texans. Maybe, and again, I don't want to put too much stock in what happened in last year's playoffs, But because I've already seen the Bills win a game against the Broncos, I've already seen what that path looks like.

48:11And I do think there are more specific things to point to. It's easier for me to imagine the game that the Bills offense needs against the Broncos defense for them to win. It's harder to do that with the Patriots offense against the Texans. But of course, I know the Patriots offense has been incredibly good this year. It's just harder for me to picture what it looks like specifically in my mind. I can see the six to eight plays the Bills need and the Bills get to win that game against the Broncos. With this one, Derek, I just don't know what those plays are against the Texans defense. I'm in the same boat, man, because I like I think the Patriots offense is good.

48:49They also they have not played an offense or a defense of this caliber. And the Chargers defense. We keep doing that, though. We keep saying that every single day. I know a defense like this, but they played a good defense last week and they were not very good last week. That's right. And this is one, a better defense, but also a much different defense. This is a defense that it's, they're going to challenge you a little bit more, a lot of tight windows. The pass rush is obviously incredible. And so it really is like a hard game for me to get a handle on the thing. I do think too, if I had to like figure out what is the toughest game for me to pick, it's maybe this one, maybe the last one we'll talk about, but it's one of these two.

49:22The last thing I want to say, God bless you. I know this, I think is a cool full circle moment in a way you remember last year when Drake May did not start the season and then he finally came in against the Texans and everyone was like bad idea you can't start your rookie quarterback against the Texans and he actually looked pretty good for a rookie obviously you don't end up winning that game and now he has to come back as the potential MVP and play against a better version of that Texans defense I think story-wise that's kind of fun man we did we wrote his obituary before that game, didn't we?

49:53Mm-hmm. And then he played pretty solid. Were you? No, yeah. After watching what happened to Jacoby Percet in that offense, I felt I was very scared for Drake May. I have zero regrets. It just speaks to what a good player Drake May has become and was clearly capable of becoming even at the time. I was looking at this game and so you look at the Texans just coverage splits overall. They don't play a lot of cover two. They play like about an average level of cover six. They play 56 % combined, cover three, cover four. That's what the Texans defense has been this year. The Patriots offense this season is number one in EPA per drop back against cover three and quarters.

50:35And so that's where I sit with this game. It's like, what am I supposed to do with this? It's just so hard to figure out who actually has the upper hand in that matchup. And I tend to think that it is the Texans based on how they're playing right now. But Derek, as you're considering that, Drake may this offense against the Texans defense. What is the first thing that you're thinking about? I honestly think that you really do have to challenge them down the field, because I think the thing with this Texans defense is they play in a way that should be volatile. Like they do play a lot of like one on one matchup coverage and you can sometimes attack them down the field.

51:13The problem with attacking them down the field is usually the quarterback can't hold on to the ball long enough for that to happen. Drake May, I do think, is willing to hold on to the ball. And he's very willing to lay it, lay the ball out down the field, especially deep outside the numbers. And when he's done that, he's been about as accurate as you can possibly be on a lot of those throws. And I do think that when we've seen some of these really tough games from the Texans, it's been these games where this stuff can be volatile, but they get two, three, four shots allowed down the field. Some of them can be blown coverages like they're struggling to pass guys off in some of their deeper zone coverage against play action.

51:46or sometimes like Kamari Lasseter is great, but he still is like ultimately a cornerback too that you can beat over the top a little bit. And so I would be curious to see if the Patriots, I really think you do have to challenge them down the field. And I think May's willing to do it and certainly capable of it. Well, I think I'm more curious to see if the receivers are up to the challenge there. This is where my brain drew me when I started looking at this. Obviously, we know the Texans don't blitz that much. It's like 22 % of the time. and maybe you don't want to against Drake May anyway because he leads the league in like everything versus the Blitz this year.

52:2115 touchdowns, no picks, 1 ,600 yards, top five in the league in EPA per drop back versus the Blitz. So that took me to, if you just rush four, which the Texans love to do and are very good at, and you get pressure, how will that look? He's the best quarterback in like eight years. Thank you. Yeah. Best success rate and best EPA per drop back in the league, as well as the third highest yards per attempt when he's under pressure. So not just not just if you send four in the Pats deal with it, but if he's under pressure, he's that good. The one thing I think we talked about this on the award show, he's taken 34 sacks in those situations this year, but only half of those were for more than three yards.

53:04and we've mentioned that before like he's really good at sacks not ruining Patriots drives because a lot of them just aren't for that much yardage because of his athleticism and so and this is ironic because we're coming off of a game where the Chargers strip sacked him twice but as long as you keep that from happening then I I think Drake May can overcome this is what I'm trying to say and I don't mean that to minimize what the Texans are capable of I I've watched them plenty but I don't know man I think I trust Drake May's body of work Dave I'm trying I actually really cool here I think that's such a great point about the sacks that like the particular types of sacks that he takes where it's a lot of like three yards and less he doesn't bail from the back of the pocket like he's if he feels pressure he's stepping up he's gonna run through the a gap he's gonna do that some of that stuff and so that's how you get of Drake May's half of his sacks this year are him getting ankle tackled at the line of scrimmage by a guy who is in pursuit.

54:03Absolutely. And again, you think about just risk reward, him trying to move up and out of the pocket, the plays he can make as a passer, navigating the pocket, what he does as a scrambler, like you'll take a few of those sacks because the rewards on the other end of it, he's doing things under pressure and when having to move off his spot that almost no quarterback in the league is doing right now. A hundred percent. Like if you're worried about him taking a sack that gets you into like second and 12 on a first and 10, but then you know the next play, he can just like slide up against pressure again and then hit a 20-yard hole shot.

54:35Who gives a shit if he's taking a couple of these sacks? The one thing that gives me pause, see how you like this. Louisiana State University might swing this game. I'm shocked you came, you went here. Daniil Hunter versus Will Campbell is, that's quite a matchup. And Will Campbell has had a fantastic rookie season. He has lived up to the billing. But this is the type of pass rusher and the type of pass rush that can expose the questions about him. Like the athleticism, the length. When people were trying to pick Will Campbell apart, it was people like Daniil Hunter who have 34 and a quarter inch arms and have 18 pass rush moves in their bag.

55:19That's what people were imagining when they said, ah, Will Campbell, top five pick. I don't know. and Anderson as well. Obviously, they both play on both sides. Anderson played 75 % of his snaps on the defense's left side coming into the game last week. Hunter's mainly been right, but he was left last week. They flipped it last week. Anderson was at 75 % last week. That was just kind of an interesting tweak for that game specifically. For the most part, Anderson has played on the left side. Daniil Hunter, Will Campbell, all the nice stuff I just said about Drake. Like, if Will Campbell isn't either on his A game or getting some help, then that could send things sideways for sure.

55:59And then the Kayshaun Booty part of it. You're so right. We talk about taking those deep shots and where they might come from and challenging those guys. That's the guy that potentially will be doing it. Go Tigers. Few different things, again, if I'm trying to figure out, what do those plays look like with the Texans? I think Derek is right. I think you have to try to challenge them down the field. They've been worse. The Texans have out of those single high looks that they have been playing quarters this year. And the one play I'm thinking of, so I was trying to figure out which games to watch.

56:25I go back and like which teams had success against the Texans defense and where we could find some ideas. The only team, I believe since week two, that had a success rate above 41 % throwing the ball against them was the Raiders. Per next gen stats. EPA models are different in different places. but the next-gen EPA model specifically. The Texans have not allowed a positive EPA per drop back since week two. To be that good and to struggle with the 2025 Raiders is so silly. And so the Raiders, the one big chunk that the Raiders hit in that game is just Jack Besch on like a huge crosser against single high that Geno just lays out.

57:06And it takes a really nice throw. But what do we know about Drake May? Like Drake may can be accurate pushing the ball down the field. And so I think that, that idea of we need to try to take a few shots in this game. You get a PI against the team that can get a little bit grabby. I think that has to be part of it. Few more things that I came to while watching some of this stuff back. The Texans this year, they have been about average against play action, designed rollouts. And the Steelers last week, they hit that big crosser to DK with Rogers rolling back to the left. So that is an area where the Texans defense have been average.

57:43And average is a win. If they're average, they're worse than they are in most other areas. One other thing that this isn't necessarily surprising. The Texans defense this year per NextGen is bottom five in success rate on outside runs. And you think about how hard they flow. And if you can, my first thought when I'm thinking about this is two distinct types of plays. The Patriots will do this. They'll be in 21 personnel or some sort of heavy look in an eye formation, and they'll do that kind of reverse pitch out to Henderson against the flow of the play, trying to get a couple chunks off of something like that.

58:20I expect at least one end around attempted in this game by the Patriots, and I think if they tried some sort of funky trick play, that would not surprise me at all. I don't think it surprises me. I think the run game point is a really good one too because if you're running... at or near the edges. Like Will Anderson Jr. is one of the best edge setting defenders in the league. Daniel Hunter is like less like, you know, put two hands in your chest and like defend the run, but he will just get under a tackle and blow up the play. You kind of have to just run all the way to the perimeter outside of them and just pray that you can get away from them.

58:53Or like you said, some of that pitch stuff. That I, you need to have the ends crash inside and then get the ball back on the perimeter. The one like explosive run that the Steelers had last week was that Kenneth Gainwell-Wineback run where I think it was Hunter, it might have been Anderson actually, crashes inside and then they wind it back to the left side all the way to the perimeter. Those are the types of runs I'm thinking of. And then the one other thing that crept up a couple times when I was watching some of these games and the Steelers hit one last week, the Texans this year have been, if you look at their play action numbers, anywhere between the numbers, negative 0.15 EPA per drop back against play action outside the numbers it's 0.12 EPA per drop back which is if you look at the league as a whole it's still not bad but those plays specifically have been much more valuable to the offense than a lot of other stuff that you can try against the Texans and they hit kind of feeling on like a sale route last week where they bleed out coverage to that side and then because the linebackers are filling up against the run I mean this is normal football but like because the Texans kind of play with that downhill mentality.

59:59If you can get Al Shire taking one or two steps and then you're throwing it back into that hook area where he's supposed to be, that's one spot where if you can hold up, can you get one or two of those? And we've seen the Patriots like doing that. Like the Patriots want to attack that area. They do it all the time. So those are those are like the three or four things that I had. But it took me like two hours of digging to figure out like where, like what four or five specific things would I try to do against the Texas? Drake May leads the league in yards, touchdowns, and EPA per drop back on throws of 10 plus yards and outside the numbers.

1:00:34So that gives credence to your point, which I can't. We said this in the production meeting, didn't we? like of the four games, unit on unit matchups, this is top billing for me. I think so. I mean, the Patriots were number one in EPA per drop back this season and the Texans were number one in EPA per drop back on defense. I think this is probably the biggest strength on strength matchups. And I don't want to hear if the Patriots managed to win, I don't want to hear any more of this. Well, they haven't done it against so-and-so. Like this is it. If you beat the best defense in the league, this is it.

1:01:12I do think that it's hard for me to imagine a game where the Texans defense really gets picked on right now with the way that they're playing. The question then becomes, if the Texans defense can slow down this offense, can they do enough on the other side of the ball to win this game? And I just don't know if they can right now. Because if you look at what they did last week, I think there are a couple different things that come to mind. The way they ran the ball against the Steelers last week, that feels like an outlier. They have not been able to run the ball downhill like that all season. Like their efficiency running the ball just straight downhill runs out of those jumbo sets last week.

1:01:51They've been actively bad in that area for most of the year. And so is that an indication that things are trending in the right way? Or is that a performance that we just kind of throw out when you take it in context with everything else that's happened? And then now you lose Nico Collins. And so you lose your most explosive pass catcher and you, for the most part, have struggled to run the ball this year. And Derek, I think there are specific elements of who the Patriots have been defensively over the last couple months that do make it even harder on this specific version of the Texans. As far as that run game against the Steelers, like throw it out is maybe strong, but you got to prove it to me again.

1:02:28You've been bad for basically the entire season. And I think I said when that game was happening, when they were just like having a couple of those drives where they were just marching it on the Steelers front. I was like, I don't know if I've seen the Texans do that since the Jags game with Davis Mills, which was in like week eight. And that was when they first pulled out the six offensive linemen stuff. And I think it caught them off guard. So they've got to prove that again. And I do think personnel wise, I struggle to see them doing that against the Patriots in this game for a couple of reasons.

1:02:55One, we've actually seen that Steelers run game have some pretty low lows, even though they've been decent at certain points this year. But to me, the trio of Milton Williams, Kyrus Tonga and Christian Barmore is a better interior than the Steelers have, especially Tonga is really, really good right now. And so if he's going to be back in this game and he's going to be healthy, I think to me it's hard to see how they push them around. And then obviously in the passing game, one, I think you struggle to match up now one on one, even if Christian Gonzalez is out on the other end. Like if you don't have Nico Collins, I think the rest of the Patriots secondary is fine.

1:03:28He's not out, by the way. He's not. He practiced in full. It sounds like Gonzalez is going to play and Nico's not going to play. Then that is like worst case scenario for this Texans passing game. Because I just, again, matchup wise, I don't see it. Like Jaden Higgins is a nice player. I think what we like what he can be. But if he's got to go toe to toe with some of those other corners and he's got to be the guy for them, it's hard for me to imagine how this goes all that well for them. I feel like I sound like a Patriots cheerleader in this segment, and I don't mean to, but like looking through it, I just came away with the conclusion, I think not not on our show, but like just in general, people talk about the Patriots as if they are like a bad team that rolled over a bad schedule.

1:04:10and Drake Mays awesome, but it's not that good of a team. And I'm not saying that they're the best roster in the playoffs, but I think this is a better roster than it's gotten credit for for a lot of the year, probably because they weren't regularly testing themselves against the best in the league. And now you look at this situation where Milton Williams is back, Kyrus Tonga is coming back. I looked this up. Tonga's been out since week 10. Milton got hurt shortly after that. so for roughly eight weeks you haven't had the two of those guys the Patriots defensive rushing success rate was 39 percent over the first 10 weeks of the season which is decidedly solid and it fell all the way to 47 percent over the last eight weeks you get those guys back you have Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez Robert Spillane comes back from an injury that he was dealing with as well and then you have the if the likely MVP or at least a contender for MVP a quarterback like this is not a juggernaut of a team but I think they are a much better team than than the popular narrative suggests and I think too what I would say with the defense is actually that we've said this about a couple of different units and teams throughout the year I think they were not that good in getting away with it for a lot of the like first half of the year against playing against some bad teams some bad quarterbacks I think over the last six weeks they've actually done some really cool shit especially up front like I think some of the pressures that they're bringing who and where they're dropping guys from like how they're manipulating uh some of the pass rush plan like I thought the way that obviously the Chargers offensive line is very gettable in terms of manipulating pass rush plans but like they really took it to the max in that game and they've been doing that for a lot of the last like month or so of the season and so I think now that they've dialed in some of that stuff and like you said Dave they've got a lot of their guys healthy like Milton Williams their best pass rusher Spillane being back in there that you can you kind of use him as a hammerhead too in the passing game like they it's it's not a perfect defense but they've got some stuff and they're throwing more pitches now if you look at it the next gen numbers I think they're like a yard per carry better with Spillane on the field than with him off the field this year and we know normal caveats about the noise with on off splits but I do think it's at least worth mentioning I think some of what you're talking about is that they were starting to play with lighter boxes in the middle of the season and so there are some structural reasons that I think teams are running the ball better, but the fact that now you have all of your best front seven players back in the mix is certainly helpful.

1:06:32I just think that a lot of the ways the Patriots want to play defense right now are set up to give the Texans problems with the way that they've played. Specifically, the Patriots will kind of play whatever they need to on the back end based on who the opponent is. Like, whatever you're not very good at, they're comfortable doing that. Against the Ravens and the Bills, they played a lot of man because teams, the Ravens and the Bills weren't as good against man coverage. but they're happy sitting in a bunch of split safety coverages. They did it a lot against the Chargers last weekend. The Texans this year, per next gen, bottom 10 in passing success rate versus split safety coverages, sixth in passing success rate against single high coverages.

1:07:12And just think about it. You can imagine it. Just some of those crossers against single high and their ability to hit some of those inbreakers, that's what they want to do. And so if you're trying to clog the middle of the field and you're taking that away, I do think that the Patriots are going to have the right plan for who the Texans want to be. And Derek mentioned this. The Patriots in the back half of the season, they've gotten more creative with the pass rush plan. Four of their highest cover zero rates all year have come in the last six weeks. They've been up near 10%, like three different times since week 13, which is a lot.

1:07:42The Texans this year, per next gen stats, 31st in success rate versus cover zero. They lost more EPA on those plays than any team in the league. Negative one EPA per drop back against cover zero. Not.1. So the Texans lost a point of value every single time a team ran cover zero against them. And the Patriots have started to do that more and more as we've gotten deeper into the season. And now you tell me they don't have Nico Collins. Yeah, that sounds like a recipe for trying to get wild with it and run some cover zero. I think that the Texans defense is in a place where they can nuke any game they play in.

1:08:22I just think that figuring out how the Patriot, how the Texans offense is going to score enough to win this game. It's tough for me. And that brings me to the first point I made. It's like, I don't know how to square this. Like, I don't know where I land because of that. Would you rather have an A plus and a D or two Bs? Cause I'll take the two Bs. Historically, my answer is two Bs. If you want the A plus, I get that. And I'm not trying to say the Texans can't win this game. Like this defense is ferocious, but I'll take my chances with two pretty good units, one of which has one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year over a very imbalanced team at this point in time.

1:09:05I think that's the right answer. But I'm not sure it's my answer. You just don't want to be on the other side of this fun of a defense. And that's totally fine. I think that might be it. That's fine. I honestly think that might be it. I'm willing to admit that. I'm in the same boat. I think I think so often my North Star for games that I really struggle with are just like, all right, what is the unit that I think is the best one? And I think it's the Texans defense. Like, I think they might be the best unit left in the entire playoff field. And so Seattle's defense, I think, will certainly gives them a run for their money.

1:09:38It's one of those two, I think, like pretty clearly to me. But I we've talked about this a little bit, too. I think because of the style of it, I lean towards Houston. And I just, there's something about it that is, I think they could just go and win a game. This, I was trying, I was thinking about this earlier this week. Just again, we've made this comparison a bunch. And the Seahawks, by the way, the Seahawks are physical. They're fast. Like this is not some like finesse defense. Now I'm not, I say this with love. This is not the Bills defense where they're getting by with finesse. That's not what the Seahawks are.

1:10:09The Seahawks will come out and kick the shit out of you. But if I'm trying to land on like what is different about it, When you play the Seahawks, it feels like they have 12 guys. It feels like they have more players than you. When you play the Texans, they have 11 guys, but all of those guys are insane people. They're just absolute monsters, every single one of them. The Seahawks have 12 players, the Texans have 11, but all 11 of them have a hammer. Yeah, yes, yes. They all have a hammer and they all have jetpacks. That is what it feels like. Two more stats I wanted to throw out that I think are worth noting.

1:10:46The Patriots have been slightly worse against man coverage this year than they have been against zone. And the Texans played, this is per next gen, 17.5 % man over the first half of the year, 32 % in the second half of the year. So they've really cranked up the amount of man coverage they played Houston in the second half of the season. Curious if they do that again. May did struggle relatively against the man looks that the Chargers threw at him last week. But that's enough of a change up for the Chargers where maybe you can jump on them a little bit. the Patriots are going to have a plan for what the Texans man stuff is going to look like in this game.

1:11:17And the other one that I think is worth throwing out, because again, if you're imagining the plays that the Texans offense can make Houston this year, sixth highest rate of condensed sets in the NFL Patriots are fourth in EPA per drop back against condensed sets this season. So you think about all of the, again, just those crossers from condensed sets, those in breakers from condensed sets that the Texans want to run the Patriots for the most part have been really good against those this year. Let's get to our last one here. The Los Angeles Rams at the Chicago Bears. Can I jump in really quick?

1:11:48I am sorry, guys. You sure can. We can. Let's rewind one game because we just got a little bit of information. Officially, Fred Warner, not playing. So we got that. Sam Darnold has popped up on the injury report, questionable with an oblique injury that came from nowhere. So there you go. Charles Cross is playing for Sarah. I think Sam Darnold's playing too. I think he is too. Just a heads up. It's worth noting. But injured Sam Darnold sounds prone to ugly football game. So you're telling me there's a chance. Derek is starting to believe. Rams at Bears. Rams are three and a half point favorites in this game.

1:12:22Imagine if I told you on Halloween that the Bears would be playing a divisional round playoff game against the Rams and the Rams would only be three and a half point favorites. And the game would be in Chicago. Yes. I wouldn't have believed you. I would have said, ha, that's cute, Robert. join me in reality yeah i think that being the case you would have had to told me that i actually i don't even know like you would have told me that rams yes you would have had to tell me that like matthew stafford went down and they just like lost more games than they should have or something like that that's the only way i could see it i mean they did lose more games than they should have but it still does not prepare me for the rams visiting in the divisional round this is a tough push and pull when you're i'm just thinking about the emotional aspect of this game because there's part of you, it's like, man, what a fun season.

1:13:11This has been incredible. You're playing with house money. If you lose this game to the Rams, that isn't a perfectly acceptable way for your season to end. But once you get to the divisional round, that shit's out the window, man. There's none of that to be had. I can tie this together with Chicago, actually, because I remember the 06 Saints came out of nowhere to reach the NFC title game, and it was the year after Katrina, and it was like the most feel-good season ever, and we were just happy to be there, you know what sucked? Getting walked down by the Bears in the NFC title game. Like house money doesn't exist after a certain point.

1:13:46And when the end goal comes into view, which is divisional weekend, that's all bullshit. Like you can tell yourself whatever you want, but every team left in the field is starting to believe or already fully believes. Yeah, when you're down to the final eight, I think you have to get yourself there. And unfortunately for me, I do think that I'm there. Well, and also the way they won their last game. Like, you cannot win that game that way and be like, I guess the rest is just house money. Get the f*** out of here. Like, we're going all the way. I'm trying to protect myself here. Derek is just refusing to let it happen.

1:14:22Because it's a lie. You guys are 100 % right. It's a lie. You guys are 100 % right. I mean, I think Scott was there when Scott was at the game. But last week, as soon as they won, I started talking myself into who I wanted to play, who I wanted to see win the next week. It's immediately when that game ends, you start getting yourself there. And unfortunately, I'm there. The fact that I am shouldn't surprise anybody. We're sitting here talking about this game before we record. And Derek is starting to say some out-of-pocket shit about how likely he thinks it is for the Bears to win this game. Listen, man, there's a couple of factors.

1:14:55Just like the like Matthew Stafford with the weather, the way this Bears offense matches up like I'm I'm spinning myself into it pretty fast. All right, let's start with that side of the ball, because if the Bears are going to win this game, I think it is going to be driven by the way that their offense plays. So what about this Bears offense against this Rams defense do you think gives the Bears a shot in this thing? The Rams defense down the field, especially is not very good. And I think at earlier parts in the season, that was true. And they were just doing a good job of the run defense was so good.

1:15:26Teams just weren't able to get them in passing downs, all that stuff. I actually do think over the last actually funny enough, really, since like the first Panthers game, like week 13, week 14, it's been clear that you can get this Ram secondary down the field, especially their corners. If you make their corners do anything but sit on top of routes and like drive on stuff that's under 10 yards and just like go try to pick balls off, they struggle like they you can snap them off on some of these deep corner routes. If they try to go chase a dig, they're always a step slow. And then even if you're just size matching them up like one on one, you saw what the Panthers were able to do with Tedaroa McMillan, Jalen Coker.

1:16:02They can just outsize guys like Emmanuel Forbes and Kobe Durant. I know the Bears receiving core isn't quite that, but like Roma Dunze has some of that to him. And then to me, really, the guy Colston Loveland can basically be a wide receiver. And so if they split him out and match him up against some of those guys, Like I just the way that this team is built and the way that the Bears want to attack, right? Like all they want to do is throw 15, 20, 25 yard chunks down the field. It just feels to me like they are built for a game like this to score 30 plus on this Rams defense. It's funny because the love one stuff, he lines up as the number one receiver split out wide consistently within the offense.

1:16:39They're doing that in large part to get coverage tells to kind of do things to teams formationally, formationally, not necessarily to create matchups for him against corners in this game, it might actually be something worth thinking about. Box him out. Yeah, I want Colson Loveland on Emmanuel Forbes as many times as I can get it. I do think and I'm with you. I think that a lot of the things the Bears want to be offensively. That's the way that you want to attack the Rams. The first point I'll make the run game just flat out. The Bears have had one of the best run games in the NFL this year. It was not good last week.

1:17:13that's because of the way the Packers were playing them. The Packers per next gen loaded the box. So more defenders than blockers on 75 % of the Bears runs last week. That was the second highest mark in a game this season by any team. That's some like one-off playoff bullshit. Yes. And so I just don't expect the Rams have two games this year where they were over 40%. The Packers were at 75 last week. that's not the way that the Packers want to play. Not the way the Rams want to play. That's not the way the Rams want to play. They're playing with light boxes at a top eight rate. I assume that they'll devote more resources to the run than they would against an average team, but I don't think it'll be that extreme.

1:17:54And I think the Bears run game will look better this week than it looked last week. That aside, the way the Bears want to throw the ball, like Derek said, the Bears want to be ripping these digs off play action. That is what the baseline of the offense is. this year the Rams are 29th in success rate allowed off play action per next gen and here's the kicker they are dead last against in breakers off play action of any team in the league and that's the entire Bears offense and so I do think some of the in breakers off play action some of the crossers and the Bears are really good at this where I'll be curious what the Rams do against the 12 personnel the Bears want to use because the Rams play base to 60 percent of their 12 personnel snaps.

1:18:37If they do that and you're the Bears, the Bears are more than comfortable breaking out those 12 personnel looks where they'll create some horizontal stretch and running some big crossers to burden like out of those looks. They'll do things where they'll have commit just going like some sort of exit motion, create that with horizontally, and then they'll have burden come back on one of those crossers. You can see that against the Rams defense the way that it's currently built. And so there is a path there. There 100 percent is. This sounds harsh because he was so good in the early going of the season and what deserved a contract extension.

1:19:11But Quentin Lake got picked on last week and first game back, first game back in seven, eight weeks. Maybe, maybe he's better with a, with a, you know, a week to get his feet underneath him. But I would want to find that out if I was the bears, like where's, where's 37 and who's on him. Let's get the ball to that guy. Cause he gave up eight for 94 on 11 targets easily is worst, worst day of the season. So Luther Burden, DJ Moore plays plenty in the slot. Like I would be looking for that early and often. Couple of run game numbers. Rams are dead last in stuff rate this year defensively. They just do not create a lot of negative plays in the run game, which that's a lot of the...

1:19:51I... Get me... Get out of here with the weird run game bullshit in this game. If I see a reverse pivot handoff to a wide receiver that goes for negative five yards in this game, I'm going to lose my mind. Because if you just line up and run the ball, I do think that there will be enough down-to-down consistency for you to feel good about it. You know who your coach is, right? I really do know who the coach is. I really do. So those are the things I'm really looking for on that side of the ball. The thing that is, and again, the Rams still have a good defense. They still have a good run defense.

1:20:24And so while I think the Bears run game will be better, I don't think this is a situation where the Bears aren't necessarily going to run all over them. And if you get into some of these third and seven, third and eights, there are two things that have left me in like a cold sweat. Jared versus against the backup left tackle is going to make me lose sleep over the next three days. Like that is something that is absolutely worth worrying about. And the Bears in some of those looks, third and seven, third and eight, especially if teams are going to mug it up a little bit, they do run a lot of screens in those situations in order to limit the downside.

1:20:56The Rams have been the best screen defending team in the NFL this year. 20 % success rate against screens. And so if they can be stout against the run and you're forcing the Bears into those pass first situations, I do think that's where things maybe start to unravel a little bit if you're Chicago. Do you have a preference of Theo Benedett or Braxton Jones? I think it's probably Benedett just because he's been playing. Like the idea that Braxton Jones is coming in cold, that would concern me. Jared Verse has 22 pressures, two sacks, three quarterback hits over the last month. And that's not to mention what he did on special teams in that Falcons game.

1:21:35Jared Verse, who is one of my favorite players in the NFL, being the person who nukes this Bears season would be, it's not the way I want to go out. A small note, I'll actually say on the pass rush too, the Rams edges, because they're long and strong, keeping Caleb in the pocket actually probably is the better way to rush the pass rush as opposed to like giving him some of those, you know, you try to, bend the edge too fast and he just wheels out the back the way that he usually can. I just spit out everything I thought about this game. Anything else on this side of the ball that you guys feel like is worth mentioning or is it fun of mine for you?

1:22:07It ties into what Derek said at the top, but since that loss to the Panthers, the Rams have allowed the second most explosive pass plays in the league. 46 over the last, whatever that is, five, six, seven weeks of the season. Their explosive play rate has ballooned up to almost 18%, which is a bottom 10 number in the league, you can get them. And the Bears, between just the way the passing game functions on its own, Caleb's ability to extend plays and the skill talent, there should be explosive plays for the Bears in this game as long as the weather semi-cooperates. And to the point about extending, actually, the team that's gotten a ton of the explosives against the Rams secondary has been the Panthers.

1:22:53And I think the Bears can do a lot of what the Panthers have been doing. The one thing the Panthers couldn't do successfully was boots, just because any time Bryce Young got out, like once he started to wheel around, whoever was chasing him was just a better athlete than him and could hunt him down. That's not the case with Caleb Williams. Like Caleb Williams is a pretty special boot player. You can probably get a couple of explosives, maybe take one or two of those as a carry and pick up some yards. So I just, again, almost no matter how you look at it, I just feel like the Bears offense is designed and equipped to put up a lot of points on the Rams here.

1:23:24I certainly hope so. I think it's worth mentioning, because it's so extreme that it absolutely might affect the game, it's going to be really cold. And so there is a chance that just the quality of the offenses is diminished in this game because of what the conditions look like. Last point on this side of the ball, I went back and watched the Lions game. I just felt like that might have been the best. All right, what did the Rams do against the Lions offense because there's some shared schematic DNA? Goff hit two just like posts against quarters. like foot in the ground. My guy has the leverage.

1:23:55I'm letting this thing go. Can you get one of those in this game? Can we get like one deep post touchdown against early down quarters, which the Rams have played more of in the second half of the season than they did in the first half of the season. That's not been Caleb's strength, like really letting those, he's been very good pushing the ball down the field, but those sorts of like the safety's taken one step down. I see that this ball is coming out right now. That's not necessarily who he is, but I do think that there was an opportunity for a play like that might be there against this team.

1:24:23If there's any time for them to pull that out and for him to take what does feel like a next developmental step for him, this would certainly be the game. Why that's important is, I think the Rams are also probably going to score a lot of points in this game, unfortunately. Could be the most entertaining game of the weekend. I mean, I don't want to say that because all these games are great in their own right. Let me rephrase. Highest scoring game of the weekend. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that it's going to be like five degrees. I think the overrunner is like 55 or excuse me, 50.

1:24:52The overrunner is like 50. It was like 50 to 51 and a half, even with it being like five degrees outside. And so I do feel like the offenses are set up for success. Derek, I just have a hard time imagining like what the Bears best plan is on that side of the ball. If they're going to slow Stafford down. I think I come down with a couple of, I think it's very difficult. I will say if we're talking about the weather, I feel like that does hurt Los Angeles more than it hurts the Bears because I just think if both of these teams can run well I think the Bears are more equipped to get more explosives and so if that's going to be part of the game I think that hurts them I also think Caleb Williams just being a better younger athlete like that probably helps them as well whereas I think we've seen like he is like Stafford I think this is this is this is the the comment of a 28 year old man who's like man he's 37 he might as well be dead oh I don't know man did you see kind of looks like Do you see Stafford try to scramble against the Panthers last week?

1:25:51Or honestly, I last year Stafford threw the belt, the ball really well against the Eagles. A couple of those moments where he maybe could have moved in the pocket or got knocked off his spot because it was, I think, a little bit cold and snowing. Like I those moments, I think, did hurt them in that game. We'll see how it shows up in this one. Obviously, that Eagles defense was miles, miles. I was about to say, do you think the Bears defensive line is going to be pushing him off his spot in this game? Well, that does lead me to my next point. If I'm the Bears, I'm throwing the kitchen sink at Matthew Stafford.

1:26:21I'm throwing everything. And I know that he does. That terrifies me. I know that he does really well to replace it. They're going to get some explosive plays no matter what. I think if you're going to win this game, you have to get four or five really uncomfortable moments from Matthew Stafford in the pocket. I just don't know if you do that if you're rushing for. I think that early down blitzing, can be part of the plan. And when they've thrown the ball, by the way, the Rams, on early downs, when teams have blitzed them, they have torched teams. 0.35 EPA per drop back against the blitz on early downs.

1:26:5757 % success rate. I think one of the reasons you maybe live with the volatility there is the reason the Bears were able to start slowing down the Packers' run game in the second half of that game is that they were sending a lot of run blitzes. It's guys coming off the edge. It's Brisker. It's Gordon. You can crash the defensive ends inside because of that. And so if you can start creating some neutral or negative runs on first down, if it's second and 10, I think that's when it's worth doing. I don't want to be vacating space on third down against this team. I think that's where it gets scary.

1:27:29If he's sitting back in the gun and you got a guy coming from the second level, that to me is where he can start to pick you apart. But if you want to blitz on early downs as part of your run defense plan, that to me is probably where I would try to tap into that stuff. What do you want them to do then? I don't know. I really don't know. I really don't know. Because like, what are you thinking like zone blitzes where you're like, because if you, this team is a terrible man coverage team, like a terrible man coverage team. You saw that happen last week. And so if you're going to play man against this team in blitz, I just feel like you're setting yourself up to get barbecued.

1:28:11you you probably are but I almost think it's we've talked about this a little bit before with the Bears like it is a damned if you do damned if you don't defense I am maybe this is me just like personal preference I'm going down swinging man like I'm we're gonna throw some stuff at you and we're gonna hope that we can get one or two explosives back I hate to say I hate to call it a pivot because the Rams have been good at running the football all year but when you think about the Rams, it's so easy to fixate on the receivers and Stafford slinging the ball the way that he does. Given the conditions and given what you might be able to do, do you think the Rams could play a more buttoned up possession style of football in this game?

1:28:53Because that's when I when I heard that Kevin Dotson is probably coming back for this game. I started wondering, like, do the Rams just try to steamroll this game and just take the air out of the football and hold the football for as long as they possibly can. They can. Yeah, I think they absolutely can. There is a world where they're just running for five, six, seven, five, seven, six. Like that version of the game is not hard for me to imagine whatsoever. Four games since Kevin Dotson got his foot stepped on in the Seattle game, the Rams rushing success rate has dipped nine points from their season long total.

1:29:29Like I think it makes a huge difference. They didn't manage a single explosive run in the last two games. The only other time that's happened this year where they didn't have a single explosive run was when they played the Texans in week one. So I think they're going to try to make a concerted effort to get the run game going. The Bears explosive run rate is fourth worst in the NFL. Like, not that obviously Puka and Devontae Adams are going to touch the ball in this game. But I wonder if this is going to be a more smash mouth style of football. because ironically, I think the popular talking point is that the Hollywood team that plays in the Glitzy Stadium in LA doesn't know how to do that, but I bet they'll try at Soldier Field.

1:30:10I think they're well-equipped to play that way. I think so too. I feel like that's the team they've been all year. I think one of the reasons this game could be lower scoring is if we don't have as many possessions because both teams are just stringing drives together. That wouldn't necessarily surprise me. The last element on that side of the ball that I think is worth bringing up, the Rams this year I feel like the obviously like the Panthers beating them and then giving them a closer game than we might expect it would be simple to say like we'll just do some of the stuff the Panthers are doing we mentioned this last week heading into the game the Panthers are the best team in the league this year at defending under center play action passes and so that element of what the Panthers were doing to them specifically I do think is worth trying to tap into and what the Panthers did a great job of is the the flat defenders on that defense are just getting so much depth that you are making them try to throw the ball underneath.

1:31:02And if they're not, can you get one or two? And that to me, it feels like a necessary component of this. Can you win the takeaway, win the turnover battle by one, hopefully two? And can you get a special teams flub? Because I think if that happens, you give yourself a shot. Look at you being the one to bring up special teams. I need to grasp at any straw I care. But you know, that is such a phenomenal point and I'm usually the one that brings it up but like the Rams special teams have screwed them at times this year and that is very worth remembering on a nasty day and you know a cold game if this is going to be a game where both teams are running the ball and we're limiting possessions those special teams errors matter more because it's like a more outsized part of the game now and so I just there is a way for the Bears to do this there really is a stat that I loved.

1:31:51You won't be surprised to hear the Bears are not very good at defending on our center play action. They're one of the worst teams in the league. They are one of the worst teams in the league. Their down to down success rate is third worst in the NFL. Their EPA per dropback is better than that because they bounce into interceptions and have goofy shit go their way. That to me is what needs to happen. You need like a sinking flat defender to get his hand on the ball and and tip up an interception because Stafford is trying to fit a ball into a window because you look at the numbers, Stafford this year, 51 % of his attempts have gone to the sticks, 51%.

1:32:26That is the highest rate in the league. This team wants to push the ball. Like that's who they wanna be. And I think trying to use that against them in the way that the Panthers were able to in both matchups this year, and you can steal back one to two possessions because of that, I think that has to be part of this. It's a really cool story that the Bears managed to win last week without the bounces going their way. Well, the turnovers didn't go their way. I'd say some bounces went their way. I mean, but the turnover bounce, you know, the Watson fumble and the fumble kickoff and all that type of stuff didn't go their way.

1:33:04But it needs to happen in this game. Like, they need to make those plays. or like they won't beat the Rams if they don't win the turnover margin or like have those, you know, the fluky football plays go in their favor. I don't think. We are in a place where all I can think about is that hope is a dangerous thing. Would you rather get it out of the way early or are you happy that it's the last game of the weekend? Oh, I'd rather get out of the way early. Again, the fact that we have to record and then roll right, or the fact that the game ends, we have to roll right into it. We'll see how that goes.

1:33:35I don't care last time. I can't wait. Really looking forward to all the games this weekend. again. It is the best football weekend of the year. I could not be more excited. We will be coming your guys' way on Saturday and Sunday night live from this spot right here. So please come back and check things out on Saturday night. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.