Divisional Round Saturday Recap: Broncos win but lose Bo Nix, Seahawks rout 49ers

0:02Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays night one of the divisional round is in the books a thrilling game between the bills and the Broncos devastating. news for Broncos fans losing Bo Nix after this one. He had a really nice day. Gave you everything you could want. Made plays with his legs. Three or four throws down the field. I thought for a good chunk of this game, Sean Payton and just the structure of the Broncos offense looked really good. This to me, in a lot of ways, was the example of why the Broncos can win the Super Bowl with them pulling the right strings on offense and the quarterback playing this way.

0:36And so for him to go down and now you're dealing with potentially a backup quarterback in the AFC championship game. Just a brutal, brutal gut punch for Broncos fans. Speaking of gut punches, the Niners just get absolutely destroyed by the Seahawks. The Seahawks have felt like the best team in the league here for a little while, top to bottom. When you look at offense, defense, special teams, they have a chance in any given week of just being an absolute buzzsaw. And to watch them do that in a playoff game against the Niners, even a banged up Niners team, unbelievably impressive. We started with that one before digging in to Bills Broncos.

1:13Let's get to it with me, Derek Lassen, and Dave Hellman right now.

1:22We've gotten an incredible set of playoff games up to this point, including the first game of today, another one that goes down to the last play of the game. We were due for one that was a little one-sided, and my God, was that an ass-kicking. I don't want to be a prisoner of the moment, but that felt rare, even by beatdown standards. I mean, really, from the very first moment, obviously, Rashid Shahid takes that kick, and I think we could have called it right there, honestly. I said it, I'm not joking, sort of joking. After they returned the kickoff for the touchdown, I said, that might be enough.

2:01Yes, because by the point spread, which I know that's before they play the game, They're already given up seven. And then you immediately give up seven on the opening kickoff. And it's like, buddy, this game feels over. And honestly, because of how bad of an ass beating it was and how insanely well the Seahawks defense played, I mean, not allowing a touchdown to a Kyle Shanahan team twice in a row is insane. That does actually put this game up there with me with some of the like good quality games we get. Because like you said, Dave, this is rare. You don't see a game like this very often. I'm glad I'm glad you said that right there, Derek, because I looked it up.

2:33This is one of those games where I had like the whole fourth quarter to just look up goofy stats and find interesting things about the game. Mike McDonald is now the first coach to hold Kyle Shanahan without a touchdown in multiple games across his career as a head coach going back to 2017. According to True Media, in this game, the 49ers averaged negative.43 EPA per play. That is one of the seven worst playoff games since 2010. the Steelers Texans game from this year is one of them. The Chargers Texans game from this year is one of them. But we're talking like, again, seven times in the past 15 years, a defense has put a beat down on another team like that.

3:16And I know the Niners were shorthanded, but this is still a Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy offense that has a certain floor. And so to watch the Seahawks did what they did, do what they did to them tonight, just an incredibly impressive performance from top to bottom. And I think I want to give you guys credit because I think y 'all were very confident this would be pretty comfortable for the Seahawks, I think. It was a very, very narrow path to victory for the Niners, in my opinion. And I think I was a little more willing to squint and try to see it. And the Seahawks just put the kibosh on that right away.

3:55Like, I think the phrasing we used for it in the preview show was that it would be like trying to thread a needle. the Seahawks just like ripped the needle out of their hand and threw it away before really the game had even settled into any kind of flow the thread the needle applies to whatever your perspective on this is as wide as possible or as narrow as possible in this game thread the needle is appropriate because watching what the Niners had to do on offense in this game there was a drive I think it was in the second quarter where they strung a couple things together Purdy hit Tonjes on like a little seam bender where he had to perfectly layer it over Ernest Jones for that ball to be complete.

4:29And on that same drive, there was a third and six where Pearsall runs a fantastic route on Josh Jobe, gets separation, but Purdy has to put it low on an in-breaking throw because Julian Love is coming down on it so hard that it's the one place where Purdy can put the ball and Pearsall can't hang on to it. What the Seahawks did in this game, there was nothing that fancy about their approach in this thing. At the time we had the Demarcus Lawrence strip sack in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were playing 68 % quarters and cover six on early downs. 68%. Against those coverages in the game, Purdy was 10 of 18 for 81 yards with a negative 0.63 EPA per drop back.

5:11They had two safeties sitting back there. They were just hammering down on everything they wanted to do over the middle of the field. The Seahawks blitzed four times. They had a 40 % pressure rate through three quarters while bringing four. And the Niners had a 38 % rushing success rate against two high looks, essentially with two minutes left in the game when I look this up. The Seahawks just said, we're going to play the way we want, the way that we want to play. You are not equipped to beat us. And it was a real f*** you approach. And it was completely justified in the way that this thing played out.

5:42And it wasn't just the down to down, right? Obviously that the Seahawks basically played the game that they wanted to play and they were great, but it was all the high leverage moments that if you could have foreseen the world where maybe the 49ers win this game, it would have had to have been like they hit on the trick play that we were talking about earlier coming into they tried it was a one yard completion on a flea flicker exactly and like that's the thing so like they tried that like reverse flea flicker throwback screen all this crazy stuff drake thomas just nukes it at the line of scrimmage like incredible play by him you go back even to on the first drive they go to that fourth and one they try to run like a speed option handoff where they give it to juice check he tries to string it out to the boundary and pitch it to cmc by the time they get there it's killed coming out of the half there's a fourth and two at midfield where Pearsall is started outside to the right hand side they motion him into the slot and get like a little bit of a mantel they try to run a pick route to get him into the flat both Niners guys run into each other Purdy's got nowhere to go Leonard Williams gets the sack it's like they had the down to down that you just laid out and then in all the high leverage moments it was coming up Seahawks every single time I'm so glad you brought up the use check to CMC option fourth down and we did say going into this that this is a game to pull trick plays out of the bag if you got them but that play in that yardage it just says a lot about where you think you are as a team like the result says a lot about how this thing was gonna go I mean I looked this up too in the since 2022 like since this Purdy era kind of kicked off for the Niners this is a bottom 10 rushing success rate for San Francisco and to just to think you need to do that when you need a couple feet.

7:16It was another sign of where this was headed. I was worried about, and obviously, George Kittle gets hurt, McCaffrey gets hurt at some point in this game. Pearsall's not 100%. Conjus got hurt. But even if they were closer to full health than they were tonight, and they were closer to what they'd been for most of the season, I said this as we got deeper into the year. I was concerned about the Niners against the teams they would have to beat in the NFC playoffs because they were going to be worse up front on both sides of the ball against most of these teams. And that's exactly what happened tonight.

7:50They got blown off the ball whenever they had to pass protect. They could not run the ball. And on the other side, the Seahawks ran the ball down their throats. And it's just really hard to win a game against a team that is that much better than you up front on both sides of the ball. And the Seahawks showed that off from the start of the game tonight. As soon as that fourth and one ends that way, I think it's just such a signal of, if you're going to try to do that and you're going to try to gain a yard in that way, It's just not going to be happening against us. Well, and think about that fourth and one, the third and one beforehand, they do try to run the ball normally and Byron Murphy blows it up like Leonard Williams is in the backfield.

8:24I think Uchenna Nwosu was also in the backfield and squeezed it like I kind of get why they felt like they couldn't get a yard, which to your point, like they were going to run into a team where both sides of the trenches, they were going to get beat up. And I think going into this game, we all probably could have foreseen, especially without George Kittle, Niners were probably going to struggle up front on that side of the ball. It's the other side of the ball where Kenneth Walker just getting whatever he wanted for the entire game. And it's not like the Seahawks were doing a whole lot of interesting run concepts.

8:50I thought they did some good stuff with like motioning and formationing. But a lot of it really, especially early on, was like, we're getting into I formation. We are going to run outside zone. And the Niners just had nothing for it. They had a 61 % rushing success rate through three quarters. Seattle did, according to NextGen. It was 23 for 141. I believe they were 10 of 17 on outside runs. Like whenever they were trying to get the ball on the perimeter, they was gashing them over and over and over again. And we talked about it in the preview. Even if they had some splash plays and some explosives in that Week 18 game, down to down, the Niners were creating a lot of negative runs.

9:24Those just didn't happen today. The Seahawks were completely able to control the pace and the flow of the game on that side of the ball with the way they ran the ball. And if that's going to happen, combined with a performance from their defense that I think we probably could have predicted coming into this thing, you have absolutely no shot if you're the Niners. The funny thing is that it did happen for a little bit. Like D winners stuffed Charbonnet on third and two early in this game to set up a Seattle field goal. Like the Niners had these moments where you would see like an inspired play or a splash play or whatever.

9:59And Brock Purdy had plenty of moments when before the game got completely off kilter where, I mean, what was that stat Tom Brady threw out in the second half? This is the longest time to throw in the last decade. So I was looking it up. It was a 4.24 second time to throw for Brock Purdy in this game. That is the highest mark in the next gen era since 2016. But there have only been like three or four games over four seconds. And it's like a Cam Ward game from this year. It's just guys that are drowning based on the situation that they're in. It doesn't happen in a divisional game with a top 10 offense, even if they're a little bit banged up.

10:33It just shows you the fact that they were just grasping for straws. Like they were doing everything they could to just keep their heads above water. And that's what I was going to say is like you get a splash play from D winners. Maybe you do something on the right on the defensive side of the ball. Or there were a couple of times where Brock Purdy did donuts in the backfield and completed a ball for a first down. He's all they had. The only way they could move the ball. And like there's just you're not you're not going to do that consistently against the team of this caliber. And eventually, by the second half of that game, like the punch that you could kind of weather and come back at, you just you're just you're not returning fire after a certain point.

11:08And that's what it when when they were just ripping off. I mean, I said at the beginning of the fourth quarter, like maybe maybe you want to pull Sam Darnold here. And instead, they just ran the ball like eight straight times for a touchdown. Like you don't even have to try to seek balance when you're in a situation like this. this is in so many ways the exact game that the seattle seahawks want to play you're better on special teams you get a huge moment there your defense dominates in exactly the way that they want to dominate and then offensively you're able to really lean on the run minimize the amount of times you're forcing sam to drop back like this is a perfect seahawks game and i think as the we've gotten deeper into the season it's become pretty clear that top to bottom they are the best team in the nfl like when you combine the defense to special teams in the offense they are the most complete team.

11:54They have dismantled several teams over the course of this year. They've just done it to like the Saints or the Falcons. So to see them do it in a divisional round game, I guess it shouldn't necessarily be surprising because we know they're capable of reaching this sort of gear. But Derek, when you get to the playoffs, it still is a little bit jarring to watch a team put together this sort of complete performance top to bottom like this. I mean, I know that the Steelers blew out or got blown out last week, but like there's some defensive touchdowns with that. Like this one just completely on both sides of the ball against the Niners team that won a playoff game last week.

12:30These are these don't come around very often, I guess is what I would say. And I just think what's so cool about it is to me, the complexion of how the Seahawks are doing that is different for the first three months of the season. This was the best offense in the league at right at the start of the game. Our offense is getting two touchdowns somehow with like explosive plays. And then the defense can kind of just choke you out because you're trying to throw yourselves back in the game. Obviously, they get the kick return early in this game to do that. But like, again, a lot of what it was fueled by for the first three months or so was these explosive passes.

13:00They get out to these leads. The defense can choke you out over the last like six to seven weeks. It's actually been a lot of like the run game is really coming alive. And you get these explosives from Kenneth Walker. They can run for like over 120 yards a game and they can condense the game and only give the other team so many chances at, you know, so many bites at the apple. And when you only have so many bites at the apple against the defense like this, you start pressing, you get a little bit panicky. And that's how you end up getting these games like, you know, to go back to the Sam Darnold thing about not having him drop back.

13:29Greg Rosenthal actually posted after the game when the game was at 41 to six. Darnold had 106 net passing yards. The fact that they don't really have to rely on Sam Darnold, like that was the formula. So that was the bargain when you signed him, right? And they've kind of made good on that formula to as best as you possibly could. This was actually to steal a phrase from one of my favorite podcasts, The Solid Verbal. This was a crockpotting where you just like it. You know, you throw a tough hunk of meat in there and it's like it takes some time, but check in on it in a couple hours and it'll just fall apart if you touch it.

14:06And even if they didn't have to rely on Sam kind of carrying the day, there were still like three or four throws where it's just like, Like, man, shit, can he sling the ball? When I knew that the Niners, I mean, there were several moments today where I knew the Niners had no chance, but there was a play in the first half where Malik Mustafa gets a sack and it's second and 20. And then on the next play, it's actually a beautiful job. I think the Seahawks have done a really good job of this all year. Like the amount of third and longs they've converted, like because they're explosive, they are able to get out of some of these really terrible down and distance situations with really well-designed and well-timed out get-back plays.

14:41And so they had JSN in the backfield, which they do a decent amount. They did it against the Niners the last time they played. And for the most part, when they get JSN in the backfield, they're trying to create some sort of matchup on a linebacker or the flat defender to that side, and they just go to work on him. On that play, they use JSN to hold down the flat defender to the left, and then Sam just rips the whole shot to Cooper Cut for 20 yards. And it's like, all right, well, you're just a racing second and 20s anytime you're facing them, and your defense is doing what they're doing, then this thing is going to get out of hand very quickly, and that's exactly what happened.

15:15Another thing I want to mention before I forget is, Robert, you and I started covering the league around the same time, and tonight felt like the first time where Lumen Field was that building again in a long time. I mean, we're watching it through the TV. I'm sure it was crazy. But you can tell, and that's my point. And like, man, when I was coming up, getting into covering the NFL, like when the Legion of Boom was becoming a thing, it was century length there at that time. But like, it was terrifying. And like, if you had to go there, you knew that it was going to be insane and bad things were probably going to happen to you.

15:54And like from the time Shahid returned that kick, I was like, oh, it's that. Yeah, that's what I remember from like 2012 to 2016 or whatever it was, where it's just one of the most terrifying buildings in the NFL. And it was loud in the third and fourth quarter of a total beat down. And you could tell like how how much it must have meant to the fans to like have a night like this for the first time in a while. I was there in week two of the 2013 season. So in 2012, they get bounced in the playoffs, I believe by the Falcons that year. And then in 2013, you know, it really did feel like they were on the precipice of something.

16:29And they played the Niners, I believe it was in week two on Sunday night. And I went and that was at the time where it was really gaining this reputation for this crazy loud place. And I spent a lot of time covering that game out of the press box. And I just vividly remember being down there before kickoff. And one of the security guys was wearing the headphones that you wear when you're like using a chainsaw. While he was standing there next to the field. and I wrote a story that night and the main takeaway essentially was the Seahawks are the coolest team in football. Like that's what's happening right now.

17:00Like they are going to own this moment and they did. They did that season and you can make an argument that they did for several years. Like they lost obviously in the last play in 2014 but they were kind of the defining team in the NFL for those couple years and so to have this team kind of have the offense walk around or the defense walk around and move with that same sort of feel to what those Legion of Boom teams were. It feels very familiar. There is something to that where like you watch them play tonight and it's like, oh man, like Seahawks might be the coolest team in football. Like they've got that sort of air about them again.

17:35And I like that. Like that's a fun place to be, especially if you're a Seahawks fan. That defense, man, just like we joked about it. I'm going to add an extra guy. We said 12 guys. It feels like watching a defense with 13 players. like and I just I just love how they're playing in these moments like just the way they played the energy they played with the attitude they played with in week 18 and then to come back tonight and seem even like more rabid and unhinged than they even were in that game I didn't even know there was another gear they could get to and somehow they got there it's just always like I just when you watch them tackle it really is incredible and it's not even the moments where you know we'll talk about the other game later but like Hufango makes an incredible hit on a Bills tight end in that game.

18:18And like, those are the moments you can really feel. With the Seahawks, to me, they have a couple of those, but it's just like you throw a check down in the flat and Witherspoon is always there. You throw something over the middle and Eminwari immediately makes a tackle. You throw a check down to a running back right over the ball. Ernest Jones is immediately there or Drake Thomas is immediately blowing them up. Like they just, there's no air in anything. And I do think that's what's fun about it being different than the Legion of Boom. Like the Legion of Boom felt more like the Houston defense where it's like, they're doing a lot of simple stuff.

18:46They're just better. They're faster. You have to beat them with talent. Like Dave was talking about, like with the Seahawks team, it just feels like they have extra bodies out there. You can't figure out how to get through the puzzle and where the air is. And just watching them suffocate one of, if not the best play caller of the last decade. Again, even with a couple of pieces missing, it's just like you just don't get playoff performances like this. This was incredible. There's something so cool about watching a perfect storm come into play. and when you think about the Seahawks defense, they were a really good defense by the end of last season.

19:18I did a video about it on our YouTube channel this week and you could kind of see the stages of it last year where for the first half of the season last year, they could not defend the run out of two high looks and that's what they wanted to do. They could not do it. They were actively very bad at it. They trade for Ernest Jones mid-season and then things start to come together. You see in the second half of that year what that group can be capable of. So you have the bones of that already. Even with the guys you were just bringing back from last year. You could feel really, really good about this unit.

19:46And then you go out and you sign Tank Lawrence and you get Nick Emanwari. And structurally, we know what Emanwari has allowed them to do, right? Like it's a skeleton key thing where they can just play nickel to everything and be the defense they want to be. So many teams around the league this year, the offenses have been able to dictate the game to them. If we're in this personnel grouping, we're going to make you do this. If we're doing this, then we're going to make you do that. The Seahawks don't let anybody make them do anything. They do what they want to do all the time. But what's fun about a game like this is, and what we've seen from Lawrence the whole year, it's not just the football X's and O's on the chalkboard shit that the additions have allowed them to do.

20:24Lawrence is, when we talk about those unhinged, like that guy isn't right players on this defense, he's like right there. And I think Spoon was like really that guy last year. Like I think he was the alpha among that group. And so to have Lawrence come in and kind of match that energy and Eminwari is getting there. And so to have the two guys that have been your most important additions this offseason, not only allow you to do the chalkboard shit you want to do, but play in the way that's kind of taking you to this place. Everything has come together. Like everything has converged the exact way you needed to for them to become what they have.

20:58And that is cool as hell. I will throw in as well, Byron Murphy. I know he wasn't named all pro, but the ascension from him is massive. Growing into that type of player who easily could have been on the all-pro team just to get that everything they tried this offseason hit and you can't always count on that happening but some really magical shit can happen when it does. We are going to talk about what comes next for the Niners their outlook here, the offseason on Monday's show. We're spending the Monday hangover shows during the playoffs doing and post-mortem's look-aheads for the teams that lost.

21:35And so we will spend plenty of time on that Monday into Tuesday show talking about what comes next for the Niners. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break.

21:47Let's get to our next game here. The Denver Broncos knock off the Buffalo Bills 33 to 30. They will be hosting the AFC Championship game. I mean, there's only one place we can start this conversation. to have that sort of win, to have that sort of moment, feel like, all right, we have the inside track here. We are one game away from the Super Bowl. Whoever we play has got to come to our place. And for your quarterback to break his ankle on like the second to last play of overtime and for him to not be playing in that game, I just can't imagine a gut punch like that. I mean, when has that ever happened?

22:24Where you didn't even know he got hurt. The fact that Sean Payton comes to the podium and he tells people, yeah, by the way, I know that was awesome. And I know that this has been an incredible magical season. The quarterback is out for the year. I just can't remember anything like that happening. I've been racking my brain trying to think of an example. And I bet something like that has happened, like in a sport where you play a series, like maybe a guy gets hurt after like a big game three or something. But in football, I can't think of anything. Maybe I'm just drawing a blank. but that I spent 10 minutes digging around, making sure I wasn't getting pranked.

23:00Like, like, like I wasn't getting got by a fake Ian Rapoport when I saw that, because there was no indication that anything happened to Bo Nix. Robert, you and I were like digging through the all 22. We were watching all the plays. It was hard to pick one out. Looking through for the moment where he got hurt. It just, I mean, it seemingly was on the design run. That's what everyone has agreed on. I think that's what Sean Payton said. Or he, I think they said the second to last play of overtime. I thought it might have been on the kneel down because his foot looks like it gets stepped on a little bit.

23:28And I thought his foot turned over. He wasn't limping at all in either of those moments, but he took a pretty hard hit and got his foot pulled on the design run. And so I'm guessing I think it was the keeper. I mean, the idea that that didn't need to happen, like you could have gotten through that scenario without putting him in harm's way. And it's nobody's fault. But it's just one of those sliding doors moments where it's just like, holy shit. I cannot believe that that guy goes out for the year in that moment because Bo Nix is really important to the Broncos success. When you think about the best version of the Broncos, Bo Nix was really good today.

24:00Like you got the best possible version of Bo Nix today. Like you thought he picked up two first downs with his legs on third down. He hit those one-on-one deep shots that they gave him. Like he was everything they need him to be for them to win the Superbowl. And so to see that version of him and this team, and then for that to get ripped away from you, man, just a brutal, brutal thing to happen to Broncos fans. It took me 20 minutes to snap back to the Seattle-San Francisco game because it was such a gut punch just as somebody who loves and covers the game. So yeah, I can't even imagine processing that as somebody who's invested in it.

24:39It's just terrible. And I think too, it's hard to find what are other teams that have made the run with a backup quarterback obviously the one that comes to my mind is like the Eagles right uh with Nick Foles but like that was like going into the playoff run you know that that's going to be the case for you that's different than beating the only Godzilla quarterback left on the run where like I know whoever comes out of Patriots and Texans the Broncos are probably going to still be like you still take that team incredibly seriously but I think in everyone's head you you feel like you beat Josh Allen you feel like okay we actually really do have a shot to get to the Super Bowl now to have to lose your starting quarterback and then go and rely on a backup in Jarrett Stidham, who really has not started a lot of NFL games and now potentially having to do it against a New England defense that is either really surging and potentially having to outgun the, you know, one of the two MVP candidates in Drake May or go up against maybe the best defense in the league in the Houston Texans.

25:32That that is incredibly, incredibly difficult to do, even if you've got home field, even if you've got a good defense on your side. And I do think that what he did with his legs and what he can do with his legs is a crucial part of the offense. Because not even just the scrambles, right? Think about how much they were moving the pocket for him. They moved the pocket for him the entire game. They had three design runs for him, I believe, on the first drive when they went down and scored. They really were using his mobility to their advantage in this game. And I think that you've seen it showing up a bunch.

26:01And so the fact that you're taking that sort of skill set out of the offense, that absolutely matters. And again, like, I think that you need, when I say that, I think he played really well in this game. He did everything you need him to do. Like he had the game that you need Bo Nix to have to beat the Bills. Like those, the deep shots, if you're going to have four of them over the course of the game, and he's going to hit three of them combined with some of the other things that he can do. I think they were eight of 16 on third down today. Like this is the exact performance that you needed from him for you to believe we can win the Super Bowl as constructed.

26:32And so for you to see that and then for it to be ripped away from you 10 minutes later, it's a brutal, brutal way for it to end. He was legitimately no qualifiers needed. Very good. And that's not to say he was perfect. There were some bad plays, you know, off the top of my head. Cam Lewis could have picked him off. He like left a throw moving to his right a little too outside trying to move it downfield. And he was not perfect, but he was very, very good in this game. You mentioned the third down conversions. You mentioned what he did with his legs. He had a touchdown dropped on the first drive of this game.

27:09That changes the complexion of the first half. He had a couple other drops. Still managed to have, I mean, 279, three touchdowns, and put them in position to win this game twice. I mean, he drove them down to retake the lead in the two-minute drill and puts them in position to kick the game-winning field goal. He was awesome. And when you consider the defense, when you consider everything else working for the Broncos, this was this was one of his better games of the entire season. And he did it on this stage and beat Josh Allen and to have it just be over very unceremoniously. Because, I mean, it would be it would be devastating anyway.

27:49Right. But typically when this happens, you see something happen, you know, like he's hurt and you got in the trainers got to go out to him. And it's a thing. And to move past it and have the other game kick off and you're just like, wow, damn, the Broncos are at home for the AFC title game. What a story. And then you see like a tweet after the fact. It was, yeah, I can't remember anything like that. The stretch to me, to me, like the best kind of two to three play sequence for him over the course of a drive where I was like, okay, man, he had a completion to Marvin Mims with like 11 minutes left in the second quarter on just like a rip up the seam against cover three that he sees immediately.

28:26It's a really good throw. It's an on-time throw. And on that same drive, they have a second and 12. He has an 11-yard scramble to set them up with third and one. And that's when they score the Frank Crum touchdown on that jumbo play action in the flat. And so it's just like you saw it consistently with him in this game. And if there is a silver lining, and if we're going to try to paint a picture for how the Broncos can still do this, which I think they absolutely can, I thought that for chunks of this game, and we can dig into kind of the nuances of it. I thought for chunks of this game, I was very impressed with some of the structural things that the Broncos were doing offensively.

29:03Like when you look at that little Jordan Humphrey touchdown, that's a touchdown by design. It helps that there's a backup safety in there, but it's a beautiful play design. The touchdown, the double move touchdown to Mims to take the lead. Again, it's a backup corners in there, but it's well-timed, it's well-called. It's like the exact right moment for that sort of play. And so I did think that Sean Payton had a lot of really nice moments in this game. What they were doing at the beginning of the second half, like the refusal to run the ball and how the Bills started picking on them a little bit when they started bringing a bunch of pressure in the second half, that I don't think was Sean Payton's greatest stretch.

29:37But I feel like there was enough evidence today, Derek, and there were enough reminders of what he can do to put his quarterback in really good positions that you could imagine this thing still getting by with Jared Stidham. I actually really, yeah, I was really impressed with the way that Sean Payton called this game. Obviously, the Frank Crum touchdown is really fun. But then both of the deep shot touchdowns that you talked about, I thought that was perfect situational play calling to attack the backup DBs. Because both of them came either like a play or two after the guys got hurt. I think in the case of the second one, the one where they take the lead there at the end, that was literally the play after Trey White goes down and they go attack up the backup corner there.

30:14And so I thought some of just the situational play calling there was good. and then again to go back to a little bit we came into this week talking about you know maybe some of the back end stuff that the bills are going to do in terms of coverage like moving safety and stuff maybe that doesn't give you as much value but moving guys up front and dropping guys out and doing weird stuff to flash color in front of Bo Nix's face that's where maybe you can get him I think Sean Payton kind of understanding like okay well if that's going to be the case we're just going to keep moving the pocket it's going to be boots it's going to be sprint outs it's going to be some of these just designed runs where he's not even passing some of that stuff where we kind of eliminate the pass rush in any of this dropping stuff from the equation altogether.

30:51And we can just get him throwing on the move and generate some plays that way. So there was some amount of the refusal to run that was kind of frustrating. I think if I'm trying to maybe rationalize what was maybe going on in his head, you know, Bo Nix doesn't take sacks. You know, he's a really good scrambler and is going to throw the ball away. And you're doing some of this moving pocket stuff. You probably believe you're not going to lose yards with any of your passing plays. Maybe you're a little bit scared. you're going to lose yardage in the run game because maybe they still don't trust RJ Harvey.

31:19The Bills defensive line actually did look pretty good today. Like Deion Walker had moments at Oliver was back and had some moments. And so maybe they were just scared of getting off track in that way. That's that was kind of my rationalization for why he called the game the way that he did. But I think that they were running the ball efficiently when they were trying to run the ball. And when the Bills are bringing four in the first half, the Bills had a 19 percent pressure rate when they brought four in this game. Like they needed to start blitzing in the second half for the front to start making a difference.

31:43And so I can like when we do this, we're like, oh, they should run the ball more. It's like point to me when they should have done it. There were a couple like first and second downs in the second half where they were getting into those third nines and they were going three and out where maybe you do something a little bit different. But for the most part, I thought that today was an example of like what Sean Payton can do really well. And the other part of it is mentioned it 19 % pressure rate. The Broncos offensive line is very good. Like even if they don't have a ton of weaponry, if you're going to have a backup quarterback in the game.

32:11There are a lot of elements of this offense that can give Jared Stidham a shot, no matter who they end up playing over the next game and maybe the next two games. We talk about this being a brutal end for the Broncos. I mean, just an unbelievably devastating finish to the season, if you're the Bills. Watching Josh Allen in that press conference after the game, I think he took last year's loss extremely hard. He's clearly taking this year's loss extremely hard. And so for him to sit there and say out loud as he fights back tiers. I feel like I let my team down today. We can dig into how reasonable that is or how justified that is.

32:49There are several moments in this game that I think Josh Allen is going to be thinking about for a really long time. There's no way around that. And I don't, I don't say that. Wins are not a quarterback stat. I get it. It's not all on the quarterback. And I don't think we need to say on this show what Josh Allen does for the Buffalo Bills. They're not here unless he's a superhero last week and we're just going to forget that exactly but that's not always how it works but I mean at but at the same time you cannot you cannot hand wave what happened in this game particularly for me you know the interceptions we can talk about but like the two the two fumbles it just can't happen particularly the first one that just gifts the other team a field without having to do anything the kicker the kicker just comes onto the field you don't have to gain a yard two seconds left in the half.

33:38That cannot happen. It's a three point play. It's a three point play. He handed them three points at the end of the half. And then if I'm not mistaken, they didn't even have a timeout there. So they had no timeouts and there were like 12 seconds left. So he's scrambling in like to do what? You're not going to accomplish anything there. It's unconscionable. And then at the beginning of the second half as well, the strip sack, which Denver had a chance and it doesn't matter now because they won. Denver had a chance, in my opinion, to really put their foot on Buffalo's neck and have this be kind of an embarrassing day for the Bills where you get beat up in the second half and Sean Payton ultimately decides to kick a field goal to go up 23-10.

34:13I mean, the analytics say that that's a justifiable decision, but fourth and three, with what Bo Nix was doing with his legs in this game, I'm going for that all day and saying we are putting Josh Allen down by three scores and giving our defense a chance to tee off on this passing game. And they punted from the 40-yard line. Yeah. At another point in this game. So there were a couple moments they could have pushed him more than they did. Very conservatively. So, I mean, it didn't bite Josh as much as it could have. But those two plays, and like I said, in particular, giving the other team a field goal at the end of the half for no reason, that's tough.

34:46And you can't, as much as we love Josh and admire him as a player, which I very much do, yeah, that's going to keep him awake, and I completely understand why. If you turn the ball over five times in a playoff game, there's a very good chance you're going to lose. They turn the ball over five times. You mentioned the two fumbles on the second fumble. I mean, the idea that Shakir is supposed to be chipping Benito and he pushes him past the on Dawkins like that, just just one of those moments in a game where there were plenty of them for the bills. You have the fumble before the half. I mean, the cook fumble is just brutal.

35:19You're going down. Thank you. I actually take the lead for my mind. Yeah. In the first half. And then he fumbles. The Broncos get the ball back. They immediately come down and score a touchdown to make it 10-3 or make it 10-7 the other way. And so that swing is massive. The two interceptions, like obviously the second one, we can dig into that for a different reason. The first one, it's a really nice play by P.J. Locke. But if Josh Allen lays that ball out closer to the pylon, there's a very good chance that's a touchdown. It's the right read, in my opinion, based on how the play unfolds. the way that I believe it's cover six.

35:57So it's quarters to that side. They run a little dig and Hufanga takes one step forward on the, on the dig. And so Josh thinks he can throw it behind him on that big crosser. And he, they have the leverage on that play and he just leaves it a little bit too far inside and it's intercepted. And so that's one where he probably wants that back. And the two other throws, I would say that I'm sure he's going to be thinking about for a really, really long time. The one to knocks on third and 10 on the final drive of regulation. that's a really tough throw when you look at what's happening in the pocket like Zach Allen is pushing the center back into him he feels the rusher behind him and so he speeds up but that's a throw that you need Josh Allen to make in that moment with the game on the line and then in overtime there's the second and 11 to McColl Hardman I thought Romo did a good job of this on the broadcast talking about how Hardman takes that a little bit further up the field than Josh probably thought he was going to but at the same time that and the Knox throw you need those throws to be made in moments in games like this and it did not happen and that's how we wind up in this situation where you you need josh to be superhuman and the only reason that you're here is because most of the time he is but it's very glaring in a game where you leave you know two to four huge high leverage plays on the field and i think that's actually what's most frustrating to me about this game is I thought from a like design and overall scheme and overall plan as an off as a Bills offense in this game they got a lot of what they wanted like they ran it was as good as you could have hoped for yeah they did everything like they ran the ball incredibly well uh like they were moving people in the run game and it was a lot of like early on they were putting three receivers on the field which probably caught the Broncos off guard given the you know given how down they were having to go on the depth chart for those receivers I thought that was like a good way to just get on top of them really quickly and do some weird stuff.

37:47They had a ton of really good man beaters like early in the game where they're just getting guys out of position. There was one where with about seven minutes in the second quarter, they push one of the tight ends all the way out wide to the right. They motion him back into a little stack bunch. And so they get the mantel and then they create a bunch of traffic at the second level. Linebacker Alex Singleton gets caught. They flip the ball to James Cook. Like it was four or five plays like that where they're beating man. they're really doing a good job of manipulating the Broncos in coverage. Josh had made a number of good throws in this game.

38:17I thought relative to the pass rush they were playing, they, for the most part, protected him well. Outside of, again, that weird Shakir playing, some stuff like that. And then just, again, some of these turnovers, the Cook fumble, the multiple Josh Allen fumbles, the interceptions, they just made four or five mistakes in a way they usually don't. Because even when we've seen them lose games earlier this year, you think about the Falcons game or the Texans game those weren't a couple of mistakes that sunk them those were just like from like the the way that they were playing football compared to the other team how they got schemed out they had no shot in those games in this game they gave themselves a shot and just kept shooting themselves in the foot um in all these high leverage moments their rushing success rate was north of 60 percent when Cook fumbled that ball it was really good for most of the game they were doing whatever they wanted yeah no for the whole game as well but just like when you like when when When you have a fumble like that, you can sit there and say, oh, well, you don't know what's going to happen.

39:13But the way the Bills were moving the ball and running the ball on that possession, I'm relatively confident they're going up 14-3. I mean, we'll never know for sure, but the timing of that was just devastating. I do think it's really, so in the first half, I think they started 14 carries for 93 yards with a 58 % success rate. That's how they started the game, the Bills did. In the second half, they were not running the ball quite as efficiently. And I do think that that's worth pointing out. And I do think that is a big part of the Broncos eventually winning this game. There were three runs on first and 10 in the fourth quarter and overtime that were really important moments.

39:52There's a first and 10 with like five minutes left when they were down 24, 23 and the bills were driving. They were, the bills are up 24, 23. It seemed like they were potentially going to score a touchdown. The broadcast was talking about if they score here, do they go for two? It's first and 10. And Greenlaw comes flying across the formation. And Dawson Knox, instead of picking off Greenlaw, starts climbing to Hufanga. Greenlaw makes the tackle for no gain. And they eventually kick the field goal there to go up 27-23. So that's a huge first and 10 run stop. On the Bills opening play of overtime, they're backed up at their own eight-yard line.

40:27They're trying to run an insert play with Curtis Samuel. He can't dig out P.J. Locke. it goes to second and 10 with another like no gain on first and 10. And then after that big Ray Davis third and seven completion in overtime, the first play, they try a toss to the right side and Jonathan Cooper stands up Jackson Hawes on that side, pushes it back in both John Franklin Myers and Malcolm Roach do a great job. They went frontside backside, no gain. And so those like seven, eight yard carries on early downs for most of the first half, those started going away in the second half. And why that matters is Derek talking about all the levers they were pulling.

41:04Think about like the design sprint out to James Cook in the flat, right? Like the fast, the flat play where they get a chunk. They were doing that stuff consistently. But when you're in second and nine, it's harder to do that. You're in more of a pure drop back world. And that was happening consistently for them in the fourth quarter and overtime where now you feel the lack of receiving talent and the lack of options and just what sort of onus you're putting on the quarterback in that moment. And so that to me was an important kind of change in the way that the game felt and why the Bills were running into more walls in the second half and deeper into the game than they were in the first half that weren't self-inflicted.

41:41All right, before we get to the rest of this game, let's take one more quick break.

41:50So the other, just let's talk about the Cooks play, because I think that if you're a Bills fan and I can understand this. I'm sure you're going to be looking at what happened with the referees in this game and how it ultimately dictated the outcome of this game. I watched that Cooks play. And to me, that is called correctly. He does not complete the process of the catch. And if that just played out this way, if he goes to the ground, even if he has the ball in his chest, as he hits the ground, if that ball pops out, that's an incomplete pass. and that is what was happening. And so the fact that that's how it played out it was an interception instead of an incompletion but I still don't think he's completing the process of the catch in that moment.

42:33What Sean McDermott said and what I think is completely reasonable we need a longer review in that situation with a game, a play that is going to decide the season. And so being frustrated with the fact that it didn't seem like they took a lot of time on what was a bang bang play to make sure they got it right. That's the part of that that I think there's justifiable frustration from the Bill's side of it and from Sean McDermott in that moment. I was, when I saw that McDermott said something, I was very intrigued because I agree with you. I think it was officiated correctly. And then I watched the clip and I was like, oh, he's angry at the process more so than angry at the result of the play, which I completely understand.

43:14And Robert, I was ranting at you in the second half of this game that I just, this is a conversation for an off-season show, But the way the NFL reviews things and the challenge system and all of that is something I would love to see overhauled. But that's that. My question is, did that happen? Did they like somebody up and they buzz them up? That's why it happened quickly. And that's why they're maybe that's what happened. Maybe it didn't. But I think more transparency and more communication with that sort of play in that moment should happen. there just needs to be I think clarity and like transparency is the right word just so that people don't freak out over these moments because I'm with you like I think that is called correctly like he to me you have to like survive the process of the catch however you want to say and survive the ground and he really does neither like you said if if the DB doesn't have such a firm grip on the ball as well like you said he they probably hit the ground his arm like rakes that out and it just pops up in the air and that's that's completely incomplete uh uh McMillan just does an incredible job of holding onto the ball.

44:16And so it doesn't look like it goes anywhere. It doesn't really look like Cooks loses possession. He just gets it ripped out. That to me, like that was an interception. And so I understand giving some of the other things that, you know, maybe you want to complain about a couple of the DPI calls that went against them in, you know, later in the game. I just, this to me felt like that is how that moment should be officiated. I'm so happy to hear y 'all say this because I felt like I was being gaslit by the internet in the wake of this game. Because like if you take a screenshot of McMillan driving Cooks into the ground and you can see that Cooks has the ball and you just freeze it there.

44:52Well, the ball's not moving in that moment because nothing's moving. Exactly. Yes. If if McMillan downs him and he hits the ground and the ball leaks out, nobody's even questioning whether it's a catch or not. That's my stance. And so if McMillan takes it away while that is still happening, it's a pick. I don't even really think it's that controversial so to see the amount of people that were pissed off about it in the wake of the game I thought was really weird now Derek I did think about you in overtime because ultimate ultimately I think it was fine uh so um the the P the DPI on Teron Johnson was bullshit but it's awful but Joey Bosa absolutely roughed Bo Nix in that situation so the difference in that moment is two yards call that a 17 yard pass interference and it would have been a 15-yard penalty for the personal foul.

45:41So it's a two-yard difference, even if it was a bullshit PI. So that doesn't matter. And then the Trey White flag was a flag, but the reason I thought about Derek is I was just sitting there and I was like, well, this is dishonorable. Like, we're just hunting flags here. It's a terrible way. We're hunting flags. It's a terrible way to lose a game. It's a terrible way for the game to end. It is pass interference. No, it's a flag all day. And he tackles him. It's a flag all day, but I just, it just felt like the Broncos saw something click and they were like, we can either get a completion or a DPI here.

46:09And even the way Bo was throwing those balls, they were moon balls. Like they were absolutely thrown with the intention of under throw this a little bit and it'll either be a catch or a DPI. And there's nothing wrong with that. And the Broncos are worthy winners. But I was just watching it, thinking of Derek and saying to myself, this this is not honorable victory. Yeah, I I'm usually the like, let him play don't call dpi guy the the second one is absolutely dpi by the way like the the rules written i would still like that there needs to be some way like if the receiver is having to fight so hard to come back to the ball like there should be like some change to that but that is obviously the position the defender is in though right like i the fact that the defender is beat there like that to me is important in how we're legislating that moment if the defender is not beat and it's an underthrown ball, that to me shouldn't be pass interference.

47:00That one, that should be pass interference. That's fair. But like at the same time, the quarterback is also then fishing for it in that sense by underthrowing the ball, which also feels to me a little bit like we're rewarding something poorly. It felt to me like the Broncos saw something that they thought would work. But it was a flag though. At the end of the day, it was DPI and it is what it is. It was an anticlimactic ending, but far from a screw job. Like, I think that's ridiculous. You turn the ball over five times. It shouldn't come down to that. The refs are not the reason that the Bills lost the game.

47:38Hold on to the football. There are two plays that, to me, we're thinking about like the quiet moments that end up dictating this thing that I will come back to. On the drive where the Bills go down and score the, or the Broncos go down to score the touchdown and take the lead at the end of regulation, The Bills are bringing heat over and over and over again. They're blitzed on 50 % of dropbacks in the second half. It's consistently working. And then on third and 11, they bring four. They give Bo all day in the pocket, and he hits that dagger to Coral and Sutton to keep the drive moving. That's one of those where, man, you were bringing extra bodies the entire half, and then you sit back there, and they get you.

48:18And then the next time they had a third and long, they brought Benford off the edge because they were like, doing that again. And so I think that call in that moment hurts you. And then there was a third and 10, uh, before, right before the Humphrey touchdown in the second quarter and the bill, the Broncos offensive line just passed the stunt off beautifully on the right side and just gave Bo Nix this great pocket as he was able to come back to Mims on like sort of a deep curl underneath on third and 10. And so those two third and long completion is directly leading to touchdown drives. Those are going to be two plays that will ultimately get lost in all of this, but they're huge plays by the Broncos offense.

48:56Bo converted five third downs with his arm, and two of them were those third and longs you just talked about, and they both made a huge difference in this game. And yeah, I mean, he threw a pick right to Deion Walker and left that out. Like I said, he wasn't perfect, but this was a very good Bo Nix game. The two swings, the Cook fumble into a Broncos touchdown, and then to not be able to take advantage of the Dan Walker pick because the lock pick comes directly after that, those two sequences, I think, ultimately are what cost the bills this game. Those are two sequences where the game turns. Those were absolutely huge.

49:31And then again, yeah, like right before the half, you have the 10-point swing of hitting the touchdown to, I think it was Humphrey, where they attack the backup DB and then immediately Josh coughs it up and you give up three points there. I think going back to talking about some of those third and tens and all that, like the clear passing downs can't you still envision what those pockets looked like like you talk about some of the stuff that they're passing off like the interior those guys like took one step off the line of scrimmage in their pass set and that's where they sat for the rest of the game and then I thought the tackles did an incredibly good job of pushing those edge rushers so deep so that Bo Nix always had places to step up in the pocket and he did a really good job of taking advantage of it like I can remember multiple times where he steps up slides out through that that slot in between the right tackle, right guard, like where that B gap is, because it's massive, because the interior is not moving, and the tackles do a really good job of washing them out.

50:21So I thought in the clear passing scenarios, again, they were getting some heat towards the second half of the game because they were bringing some guys, but in those instances where they couldn't, it was all Broncos all day. In the last play, I was just going through, and I was just looking at all of the quiet moments that ended up becoming huge in this game. I think it was on the last drive where they end up scoring the touchdown, and when the Bills do. And then there was that second down completion to RJ Harvey in the right flat where they had him for like no yak whatsoever. It would have been third and five.

50:55And instead, Shaq Thompson misses him in space and Cole Bishop and I think Milan will run into each other and it turns into a 25 yard completion. And so I, as a Bills fan, this is what I would be doing. I would just be thinking about like every single small moment that like if this goes differently, we probably win that game. And that's another one where that'll get lost to history. The game potentially swings on that moment. If it's third and four and you can get a stop there, you probably win the game. Instead, it's a 25-yard explosive play. That's such a great thing to bring up because, Robert, you did a great job coming into this week talking about how well the Bills tackled in pass defense, like up front on those quick throws, those five-yard throws, those screens, all that stuff.

51:34In this game, they really did not do that very well. And it wasn't like terrible where they're missing a million tackles. But there were a couple moments, especially in the first quarter when I thought the Broncos were moving the ball well. And then again, in that key moment where it's like, if you had played the way that you had played for most of the season and made those tackles, they probably escaped this game with a win. And they just did it. It was on the final drive. I'm looking at it right now. It was in overtime. And so then you get the two PIs like immediately after that. So to have that play where it would have been third and medium on that drive.

52:04And instead, they're, I think, past midfield after he completes that ball. Man, I do think, and maybe they weren't perfect, but the Bills did a good job in a lot of instances of crashing down on those short throws that the Broncos like at the line of scrimmage. I looked it up. The Broncos had a success rate of less than 41 % when they threw the ball nine yards or less. And they weren't really getting a lot of that stuff to pop. It was just those two. It was that one and then the one where Bishop misses the check down on third down where they blitz and Bo kind of lays it out there and Bishop just mistimes the angle and that turns into explosive.

52:42Those were the only two, but for one of them to come in the game-winning drive in overtime is just horrendous timing. Playoff football is so cruel. So a very impressive win by the Broncos that now just has a cloud over it because the fact that now you're going to go into the AFC Championship game with your backup quarterback is a reality that no team wants to face. Hey, I've already, I got it pulled up right here. If you're a Broncos fan looking for some copium. Like, Jared Stidham last played meaningful football in 2023. And, like, he didn't light the world on fire, but he put up a positive EPA per drop back in a win against the Chargers in 2023.

53:20Like, Jared Stidham, at the very least, could get you to the Super Bowl. I firmly believe that. Yeah, I think that's right. Winning the Super Bowl is where it gets dicey, but Jared Stidham could get you to this game. I believe that pretty firmly. We're going to have a lot of time on Monday to chat about what comes next for the Bills. And I think that's a worthwhile conversation. You know, when you sit back and you think about why the season ended the way that it did and just what you were having to put on Brandon Cooks and Khalil Shakir in a game like this, McColl Hardman, like it, it's tough to win that way.

53:54It's not an excuse, but it's tough to win that way. And so the realities of where the Bills roster was by the end of this season and kind of how that needs to change, that's a conversation that's worth having. It's a conversation we'll have on Monday. I like that stat too much to not say it, though. Josh was 25 of 30 up to 19 yards and 0 of 9 throwing 20-plus yards downfield. Just nothing doing when he was looking for explosive plays. And I struggle with that, though. And I don't want to step on the hangover show, but, like, I struggle with— clearly that's true, and clearly they need to do something about it.

54:30But hold on to the football. Don't give the Broncos— Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. They had every opportunity and every chance to win this game. But I mean, how you make sure your offense feels different by the end of next season than it did this season, that's what needs to happen. And it's like they've done, they've tried, right? I mean, they've drafted Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, and they've drafted guys in the top 40 at those pass catching spots, and it just has not worked out. And so I don't think it's for lack of effort. Josh Palmer, obviously, you signed him this offseason. He's not playing in this game.

54:59And so it just, they've had so many swings and misses with how they've tried to tweak that receiver room specifically. And for it all to kind of come to a head in a game like this really speaks to how mishandled it's been. And the combination of poor planning and bad luck, I think brings you to this moment. But the planning needs to be a lot better with what that pass catching group looks like next year. Like no more half measures, I think, is worth considering if you're the Bills. Yeah, and I think the last thing I'll say, and again maybe not to step on the hangover too much I think the Bills did a great job of like we're going to give Josh infrastructure the offensive line's going to be great we're going to be able to run the ball and we're going to take a lot off his plate that way and I think in service of that they kind of left themselves too few swings at the plate uh with some of their past catching stuff and when all of those miss you end up in a spot where he might be protected you might be running the ball five yards a clip but at the end of the day you still have to make those throws.

56:00And if those guys aren't really ever open and you're relying on Brandon Cooks to get you 10 targets a game, that's just not a way to beat one of the top five defenses left in the league. All right. That's all we've got for tonight. We will be right back here tomorrow night after we watch a little Patriots, Texans and Bears Rams. So looking forward to that. It's going to be a fun day. Appreciate you guys sticking with us. We'll talk to you soon.

56:31We'll see you next time.