Drafting the 15 best offenses in the NFL

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2:10Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We did the best defenses draft last year or last week. Our top 15, five each. We are doing the offenses today. Me, Dave, and Derek. The rules I explained in the intro, same as they were for the defenses, but if you guys didn't listen to that show, they are coming soon. Really enjoyed this conversation. Let's get to our best offenses of 2026 draft right now.

2:45Robert Mays: We did the defenses last week. We are on to the offenses this week. Very excited about the offenses draft. We alluded to it a little bit, Derek, at the end of that conversation where this is going to be one where you could really plant some flags if you want to. Like, I'm very excited to see how you guys stacked up this group of offenses and how aggressive you want to be with some of these picks. I feel like for me, when we were doing defenses, I got to like the fifth or sixth defense. And then everyone after that, I was like, do I really want to put them in my top 10 or 12? And then with the offenses, I got to like five or six.

3:18And then I had like a dozen teams where I was like, how do I make them the one that I'm putting in the top 10? It was like a completely different exercise for me.

3:25Robert Mays: I also think that you can with the defenses, I feel like the top four or five was a pretty solidified with the offenses. You could talk yourself into a lot of different variations, even at the top. Like I will see what happens here. I think who is the number one pick? Dave, Dave, you have the number one pick. So Dave is the number one pick. We'll see which way he goes here. I think you can make an argument for a bunch of different teams. And I think throughout this, your rationale can dictate going a whole host of different directions. And so I'm very much looking forward to this conversation.

3:55Robert Mays: Just a quick reminder of the rules. EPA per play is the final metric that we're going with. It is the combined EPA per play of all five teams that we are picking. We're doing 15 total teams, five each. Third round, we are doing a reversal of the order. So at the end of the third round, I have the third pick. I will pick twice in a row and that's how the order will go for the final two rounds. Loser of this will buy the other two a meal at some point during the playoffs. And we were all together. So the exact same situation has happened with the defenses. David, you have the number one pick here.

4:27Robert Mays: Kick us off. What are you going with?

4:30Derrik Klassen: Full government name. That's how you know it's serious with the top 10 offenses here. I'm curious for y 'all's opinion on what I'm about to do. Cause I was, I was very conflicted to y 'all's point. I don't think it's as solidified at the top as it is for defense. And there's a lot of different ways you could go. And also, I said it on the defense's show, there's a tendency for me at least, I get excited about the new pieces and the changes and planning your flag on something and being right to be excited. But I ultimately sat with it for a few hours, and I decided I just want to go steady Eddie.

5:06Derrik Klassen: and I just don't want this pick to weigh around my neck like an anchor. And that's really all I'm trying to avoid here. And so after looking at it, I was a little bit surprised to realize that I'm going to take the Buffalo Bills at number one overall.

5:21Robert Mays: I'm not surprised by this at all. I would have done the exact same thing. Interesting. That is not what I thought Steady Eddie meant. I thought it was going to be, you know, we'll get to them. Here's what I mean by Steady Eddie. The floor is lower with the Rams. I just think the floor is lower. If you want to go with something, you look at it. The Bills, Derek, what do you think the Bills lowest finishes in EPA per play on offense since 2020? I mean, we talked about this on a different show. It's like fourth or fifth. Like it's like they were lower than eighth any year since 2020.

5:51Derrik Klassen: Robert took the words right out of my notes. And the other note, I would say they're the only offense in the league that has finished top five the last four years. That eighth finish in 2021 is their only finish outside the top five since COVID. They just, they're always good. And it's not that sexy. I don't know if DJ Moore at this point in his career is like a franchise changing addition. And I know that there's a little bit more turnover on the offensive line this year. Just, I think it's gone under notice that Aaron Cromer retired, by the way, in addition to David Edwards leaving in free agency.

6:28Derrik Klassen: so there's a little bit more volatility there than in years past but this is still a very deep very veteran unit and Josh Allen is their quarterback and I just uh I don't think I will regret this even if they're not the best offense in football they'll be a top five or six offense and I'm just not gonna have to worry about it this is where I would have went as well

6:49Robert Mays: for that exact same reason I I think beyond the Stafford question right I mean I understand that Stafford stayed healthy last year, but all the same things about his health and his age, like that's all still real. That didn't just go away because he made it unscathed through the season. And I'd be looking at the Rams tackle situation. And I think I would be a little bit, I'd be sweating that a little bit. The bills swing tackle situation isn't as good as it's been over the last few years. Like their depth there is a little bit worse. Jude Bowery is like slated to be their swing tackle. The guy they drafted in the fourth round this year, Ryan Vandermark, is gone obviously al ganderson's going to be slotting in for david edwards and so there are a couple things that i think do make the floor a tiny bit lower i just think that the big strong ox quarterback and his unwillingness to ever get hurt is something that i think i would be betting on yeah this also when you frame it that way this is also like uh if i'm gonna lose how do i want to lose and it's like you you don't really feel bad about picking josh allen like there's really no like you're not gonna if that's how you go down you're not really gonna feel bad about that and they could easily finish number one yeah and they could still be number one because they have a low ceiling they were in the lead offense last year without any wide receiver that you're scared of and dj moore is not perfect but i think he's gonna be like at least a full tier better than anybody anybody that they had last year and so i'm i think i think in my mind i was dead set that the rams were just gonna go number one because they did like they obviously what they did last year but the bills being what they have been for such a long time and pretty obviously getting the best wide receiver that they've had since stefan digs it makes more sense now that i listen to it

8:26Derrik Klassen: i did 30 minutes of prep on the rams thinking that i would take them number one and somewhere around minute 20 i was like hang on am i confident that the stafford's just gonna do this again and am i confident in the offensive line i mean we can talk about the rams because they're gonna go soon But after like 20 minutes, I was like, wait, there's no, I think I trust the bills more. And it kind of surprised me, which is dumb, by the way, because they were the number two offense last year. They're incredible, but they're just kind of always there. And that's, I mean, that's a good thing, but it's easy to overlook the team that you can count on.

9:03Derrik Klassen: And that's exactly why I'm taking them here.

9:05Robert Mays: I don't think you can win this draft with your first pick, but I think you can lose it. and I think that's why I probably would have gone the exact same direction simply because I would feel rock solid and the bills being a top five offense again even if maybe the Rams have slightly higher highs all right Derek you're up I assume we know where you're going here I don't know I think I'm just gonna stick with my board and assume that the Rams no you shouldn't you shouldn't you shouldn't you should go with another team no it's too bad I'm I'm actually going to take so i'm going to lay out my board here a little bit i think that there are two teams in the nfl where i'm positive they have a top 10 quarterback the play calling situation is an added bonus i think the offensive line is good and the skill players even if maybe not perfect have some sort of obvious trump card one of them is the rams the other one to me is the dallas cowboys and i think that that's who i'm going to take with my second wow two overall i think the dallas I was going to take them at three.

10:05I was going to take them at three. I think the Cowboys offense is like to me, them being a top 10 unit at all last year with such a young offensive line, a completely new play calling staff and a defense that was constantly griefing them like bad field positions down, like multiple scores in the first half early. Like they were not really allowed to play the kind of football that they wanted for a lot of the season. And even despite all of that, They had the lowest three and punt percentage in the entire NFL. Like they just did not go three and out very often. They were able to control the ball despite how bad some of these situations are.

10:40And they were still an above average explosive play rate team. Like the fact that they can control the ball, they are explosive. I think the second year in the system is going to do wonders for a lot of these guys, especially the offensive line. And the quarterback and those two receivers, like if they play 15 games together, like they very well could be the best offense in the NFL. And so I think that there's a chance that, you know, maybe the offensive line doesn't take the step that we quite want. And maybe they're not like a true kick your ass sort of offense. But anytime Dak is on the field, this is a top eight offense.

11:11And so I if he plays, I think that they're going to be that.

11:15Robert Mays: You're going to get no pushback here. I would have run to take them at three. That's who I assumed I was going to pick because I thought the Rams and Bills would go one and two. You look at it last year. They finished fifth in EPA per play last season. And it's year one with a new staff. You have offensive line, even with beyond quality concerns, just the rotating door that they had at some of these spots. Cooper Beebe missed six games last year. Tyler Guyton missed seven games last year. And I know people have been down on Guyton relatively, and I understand that. He hadn't really had like a normal offseason.

11:45Robert Mays: Like he got hurt last year coming into the year, and so he didn't have training camp. He didn't have a lot of time to practice in that system. And coming into this year, they had an open battle at left tackle. And Dave, I'm sure you've been attuned to this. He just won it from like the first week. It was just like, I'm the starting left tackle.

12:03Derrik Klassen: Like three days in the camp, Brian Schottenheimer was like, yeah, I think, I think Guyton's doing just fine. Like we don't need to worry.

12:10Robert Mays: That is the best possible outcome. If you are the staff trying to lock down that spot, even if you can just get him to a level where you don't think about him. I think that's really good. Like he has not been great, but he also just hasn't been on the field very much. I mean, he has like 21 career starts. and I think that the talent is still there. It's just a matter of consistency, and so I'm with you on this. I think that there's a lot to like. They could easily be the best offense in the league, and so I don't blame you for doing this at all.

12:40Derrik Klassen: My only thing, well, first of all, I thought there was an outside chance I could get the Cowboys at four, so I'm just, and clearly I had no shot. Clearly that was never going to happen. That was never going to happen. I wanted to talk briefly, and this is just this is a dumb little thing and obviously this offense is Dak and the receivers and that's how they're gonna go and that's why they're gonna be successful but I'm curious if they have any kind of switch up in mind with their tight ends one thing I don't think we talked about this coming out of the preseason game Robert but Brevin span Ford looks like he might take the number two tight end job and this is a team I mean they were top five and 11 personnel usage they didn't do a ton of extra tight end stuff But I just wonder if there's any kind of pivot there coming with how much we talk about tight ends and getting those guys out on the field and whether Clayton Adams wants to mix it up even a little bit.

13:34Derrik Klassen: I mean, like I said, don't overthink it when you have C.D. Lamb and George Pickens. But it's just something I've had my eye on here over the last little bit. I think for me, it's like when when Dak is in 11 and just doing all his stuff, that is, I think, the best version of him. but I think I'm in a spot where I think this offense can be very multiple, which is why I believe in them. Like Ryan Flournoy as a third receiver is good. If Spanford and Ferguson are out there as your two tight ends, if you want to do some 12 stuff, I think that can be pretty good because Spanford is a pretty credible blocker.

14:02Hunter Lepke, I think, is a really good fullback and like a good athlete. And so he's, I think, a guy that you can do a lot of stuff with. And so I think they were up and down in how good some of that stuff was last year for them. But again, I think a second year in the system, I think you just have so many different ways to win that Even if I don't think they'll major in 12 or 21 the way that some other teams around the league are, I do think it will be a pretty credible changeup for them being a firework show whenever they're in 11.

14:26Robert Mays: Why I think it's important, it's so funny how many similarities there are between the Bengals and the Cowboys. There's so many similarities between these two teams. And I think it's the same reason the Bengals have to live in a lot of 12 personnel, is that when you have those two receivers, you're not asking CeeDee Lamb to dig out his safety. Like, just not something that's going to happen. And so having two tight ends on the field and what that goes for your run game and for Dallas specifically, they were way more of an under center play action team last year than they had been before the new staff got there.

14:58Robert Mays: They were really a spread out shotgun static team. And so I think leaning into some more of the 12 stuff just for the sake of the run game is important because this team's run game. They were 10th in rushing success rate over the first half of the season. Dallas was last year. And in the back half, it fell to just about average. And sometimes we see this with first year staffs. And it's been an interesting thing to dig into with people this summer as I visited teams, just like what happened in the second half of the season run game wise. And I think it's a your weaknesses start to creep up over the course of the year.

15:28Robert Mays: And sometimes as a first year staff, you don't have the nimbleness to plug and fix those weaknesses in real time. Like that's something where you actually have to take a step back after the season and be like, all right, let's pour all this stuff out on the table. What do we need to tweak run game wise to get where we want to go? I think what Ben Johnson did in real time last year is very hard to do as a first year staff. And so I think with Clayton Adams, with the fact that they have a quality offensive line or good enough offensive line, plus being able to tap into some of that two tight end stuff, the 21 personnel stuff.

15:59Robert Mays: I think that run game has a chance to be even better and even more consistent than it was for good chunks of last year, in part because of the personnel diversity stuff we're talking about here. All right, I'm going to take the Rams at three. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, sure. I'm good. I should have taken them at two, but you know, yeah, I I'm going to take the best offense in the league from last year. The team that's projected to score the most points, probably the best play caller in the league. One of the top three receivers in the league. I didn't look up that many numbers on the Rams because I just didn't think I would take, I would get them.

16:36Robert Mays: One of the numbers that I thought was very funny, just like little things. I've often said this where I think that screen health, screen game health can be a reflection of an offense's overall quality because it's so detail-based. The Rams had a 60.5 % success rate on screens last year. That's pretty good. It was the best in the league by five percentage points. Like, they just do pretty much everything well. And the fact that they've added layers to this thing. And, you know, you have guys that even if the skill position talent is the same, I think you have players that you can turn up the volume on a little bit.

17:10Robert Mays: Blake Corum, I think, is going to be a bigger part of what they do this year. I think there are layers they're trying to add in the run game in order to be a little bit more explosive there. Even though you saw that last year when this used to be like a mid zone duo team and they started adding a couple. Can we run a little bit more counter? Can we get a little bit more outside zone? Can we start sprinkling some stuff in that can give us more gashes in the run game? and you combine that with just everything that they're able to do out of the 13 personnel stuff Stafford playing the best football he's ever played Puka leveling up his game again last season and some of the man coverage stuff and outside the number stuff that we've talked about I thought they'd go number one so I will gladly take them here at number three

17:50Derrik Klassen: if it was just Stafford staying healthy I think I would have taken them number one but it's Stafford staying healthy. The offensive line depth worries me. Also, Alaric Jackson could potentially be facing NFL discipline. We don't know that for sure. Pukunakua, by the way, Adam Schefter said within the last week that he could still be facing NFL discipline for the biting incident. He also just can't stay off of podcasts. And so I can't believe he did another one.

18:22Robert Mays: I can't believe he did another one. I thought that clip when he was up on stage doing that show was from like months ago. I cannot believe that like just happened.

18:33Derrik Klassen: I'm sure Sean McVay said the same thing when it hit his desk. But all that stuff combined, I was just like, you know what? They're going to be awesome, I'm sure. But Buffalo is safer and won't keep me awake at night. And that's what I landed on. But obviously, the Rams are incredible.

18:50Robert Mays: I think I would have done the same thing. But again, I'm more than happy to get them here where I'm getting them. All right, Dave, you're up at four.

18:59Derrik Klassen: What do you got for me? I consider this a coup for myself. And look, I mean, y 'all are just taking the Cowboys stuff right away from me. Like, and that's fine. Y 'all can be high on the Cowboys. I was a little bit surprised, though. You both said you would take them over a team that I'm elated to get at number four. because the number two offense in the league by EPA per play last year added A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs. I feel like I've been saying this every single week, and I'm just going to keep doing it. I'm taking the Patriots at four, and I feel great about it. I, yeah, I think that this is also your offensive firepower with a quarterback like Drake May.

19:38Derrik Klassen: I just, I have no doubt at all that this is going to work. None whatsoever. I mean, I don't either. He's, he's already incredible. And he's like, I'm with you on the A.J. Brown. Like, I think there's totally validity to like, does he still have it in the way that like A.J. Brown is like shifting how the Eagles can be the best offense in the league? Maybe not. I mean, he's a little bit older, you know, maybe banged up a little bit. I think it's more likely than not. He can be like 95 percent of that at least and just be an absolute menace. I also do think the offensive line, while imperfect, is probably a little better than it gets credit for and actually does have depth now that Lomu is there.

20:15You know, he didn't look perfect in his first preseason game, but you at least have options, which I think is nice for you. So I'm I'm pretty bought in on like, again, Henderson is going to take another step. Potentially, they have depth at receiver in a way that they didn't last year. They have so many different flavors at receiver now that I think is enjoyable. And like Drake may getting another year in the system in an offense that puts a lot on the quarterback mentally that I think can help them take a second step. Like you're just you're not going to get a lot of pushback from me on this one.

20:43Robert Mays: you guys were always going to take the patriots quicker than i would take the patriots and so this is they were never even on my radar where did you have them i probably would have taken them i i'm picking at the 9 10 turn if they were around at 9 or 10 i would have considered them there they would have been gone before that i would have had them at like fifth or sixth yeah i just have other teams i think i'd rather pick than the patriots i've i've already laid all this stuff out. I think the offensive line stuff worries me a little bit. They did not run the ball efficiently last year. It's just little tiny.

21:15Robert Mays: Like this team had a 48 % completion rate last year on contested catches. No one in the league was above like 40%.

21:26Robert Mays: The point, the point is, I don't think you're getting better at that stuff than you were last year. I just think that there was some volatility things that went their way last season playing against a really bad schedule. And so I wonder that second in EPA per play, like how real is that? Like if we're trying to contextualize what they were last year, we don't need to rehash all of this. We've already talked about like three times over the last two weeks. I just have more reservations on what this thing is built on than you guys do. And I think at its core, that is a lot to do with the offensive line.

21:57Robert Mays: I don't think Derek is wrong. I think they're probably fine. I just think that there's something about it that is just sticking in the back of my mind that gives me a little bit more pause than you guys have. And again, I don't think they'll be bad. I just don't think I would take them in the top five of an exercise like this while you guys would. And so they didn't even cross my mind because I knew I would never pick them.

22:21Derrik Klassen: I don't think you can be second in the league over the course of 17 weeks purely off schedule fraudulence. I just don't believe that. It's not purely off that.

22:31Robert Mays: Of course not. The quarterback played extremely well last year. He's a really good player. I don't think it's completely off that, but I think what we'd be willing to say in terms of actual quality, they were probably closer to eighth or ninth last year.

22:44Derrik Klassen: Yeah, sure. But they added Romeo Dobbs and AJ Brown. And I just, I think that's going to count for a lot. I really do. Like among wide receivers with 30 plus catches, these guys were both top 30 in, I mean, like they were top 30 in air yards per target. They were both very good in yards per route run. Like they're just, they're outright better receivers. And to your credit, Robert, I went back and looked like Stephon Diggs was better last year than I probably gave him credit for. His per route metrics are insane from last season. They're so good.

23:15Robert Mays: He was incredibly efficient.

23:16Derrik Klassen: But I still, these guys are going to be better downfield targets than Stephon Diggs was at that point in his career. And when you have a quarterback like Drake May, I think that counts for a lot. and so i i will now conclude dave's weekly patriots propaganda but and i will and i will

23:33Robert Mays: conclude my weekly uh doubting session by saying there is absolutely a chance that i'm just very wrong about this and just i'm misreading again i don't think they'll be bad i just don't think i'm quite as excited about them as you guys are and that's why i just again i was never gonna get them i didn't even think about them that's i think we're talking about the same like spectrum of outcomes i think dave and i are just closer to like it's 80 likely that they're towards the top and you're more like i don't know 50 50 like it could be a coin flip but i think the spectrum of outcomes that we're talking about is the exact same if they finished third in epa per play or second if they finished in the top three i'm not going to be like oh man i can't believe that happened i just think that i'm less willing to take it to the bank right now than you guys are and it's because the line concerns me the run game stuff concerns me a little bit and i cannot eject what the playoffs felt like from my mind as I think about this team all right Derek you're up at five here all right um I would have considered the Patriots here I think I'm gonna go I think I'm gonna go with the Detroit Lions I just like the last year was their worst year that they've ever had really under the Dan Campbell era outside of the first year really and they were still like the eighth best offense in the league like they finished sixth in EPA for play last season they they were awesome they just were like not as efficient down to down as you want but they were still incredibly explosive and to me when you bring in drew petzing you get another year with these young guards um hopefully blake miller is at least like a push on what taylor decker was giving you last year maybe he can be a little bit better um i do think he's like an incredible athlete and like their the amount of skill talent they have is the best in the league like it's they just they can beat you in every single kind of way and all of those skill players have really only gotten better every single season like Jamison Williams has added stuff to his game every year Gibbs has added stuff to his game every year I think Laporta is you know he's had some injuries that have banged him up and down but I think if he's healthy this year he'll be incredible like Amon Ross St.

25:33Brown has gotten more he's gotten better and more diverse as he's gotten older like everyone gets better and I just have faith that Drew Petsing is at least a tier above like what they were getting last year in terms of the play calling I think he's even better than that but if he's even just one tier above that this offense goes right back to being like the fifth best in the league like i just i feel like the floor is only so low with what we've seen from this unit

25:57Robert Mays: they were fifth on my board i you're gonna i'm 100 with you here like i i think everything that you said is right i also you did not say his name jared goff is good at playing quarterback in the nfl yes he is he is a very good nfl quarterback who is very capable of being the quarterback for top five offenses. Like he, he just does this all the time. And so I think you combine that with an improved offensive line, even with the center concerns that are worth mentioning. Right. I mean, I think that part of the argument and part of the reason you could get super excited about this team a month ago is that you, you mentioned it, Derek, they finished 20th in rushing success rate last year.

26:33Robert Mays: It just was not nearly as consistent down to down. And so dropping a guy that plays with Cade Mays is power into the middle of that offense combined with getting a new right tackle. You hope the young guards can take a small step forward. You know, you're swapping out essentially Taylor Decker for Penny Sewell, right? In terms of like the pop you're getting in the run game. But now you remove Cade Mays from that equation. I still think it's overall going to be an improvement, but maybe not quite to the level that you had hoped. And then you're combining that with the explosiveness. They were firmly in the top five for me.

27:05Robert Mays: And so I totally understand going this way. I had them sixth.

27:09Derrik Klassen: and I wanted to bring up, I'm glad you brought up Drew Petsing, Derek, because I was thinking about it when I was putting this together. And I honestly had a moment where I was like, do I believe wholeheartedly in Drew Petsing? Because after Clayton Adams went to Dallas, the Cardinals offense did not impress me in 25 as much as it did in 24. But then I thought about it and I was like, well, they fired John Morton in week 10 last year and still finished sixth in EPA per play. So like the same thing about the offensive line, the offensive coordinator. I'm just like, I kind of think they might not reach the highs that they have in previous years.

27:46Derrik Klassen: But yeah, I just think the ceiling or the, excuse me, the floor is really, really high with this team. I had them sixth. So I'm right there with y 'all.

27:52Robert Mays: They remade parts of the staff too. I mean, like Mike Kafka is there now. I mean, so it's, and you, last year they didn't just lose. They didn't just lose Ben Johnson. They lost Antoine Randall. They lost Tanner Angstrin as their passing game coordinator. Like having Kafka come in is kind of the drop back guy plus Petsing. You still have Hank Fraley there. And Dan Campbell has a role in how the offense is built. Like, I just think that both the floor and the ceiling for this team are extremely high. Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, though, Dave. Like Drew Petsing doesn't have to be like a game changer for this to be like the skill players and the quarterback give you so much that the offensive line and play caller really only have to level up so much for this to be an elite offense again.

28:36Robert Mays: I'm fine with the Lions going at five. I had them at five. The team I had at four. And the team I really was hoping I could get here at six. I'm riding the dragon. Chicago Bears. That was the only other team I was debating here. That high? I almost took them here. Yeah. The floor is lower than it is with some of the other teams that we've talked about. would fully willing to acknowledge that you've only seen for a year. I think that in terms of consistent quarterback quality, the guy that is the quarterback of the bears is not nearly in the same conversation as the five quarterbacks we've just talked about in terms of doing a year after year, being the quarterback and the lead offense.

29:20Robert Mays: I just, I'm, I'm chasing the upside. Like I, I truly think in year two of this thing with the skill position talent that they have you know if they get uh trapillo back at some point the left tackle spot feels a little more solidified grady or garrett bradbury can give you 70 percent of what dolman gave you last year i just think there is a chance this they have like nuclear potential i i really do and i we've talked a lot about the quarterback we spent half an hour talking about him this summer and i was very adamant and that i think he needs to be better for this team to become the sort of offense that Ben Johnson has been very open about wanting to be right.

30:00Robert Mays: Like the heights that he wants, wants to reach. But I also think the quarterback can do that. Like, I do think that there is a chance that that refinement and that maturation, that step can happen. And if it does, like Loveland is, I think already on his way to being a superstar. I think the other two receivers are more than good enough. This was the best from week five on last season. The bears were fourth and explosive play rate fourth and EPA per play seventh in offensive success rate first in epa per carry and first in rushing success rate the gap between them and the next best team in rushing success rate was the same as the gap between the team at two and the team at 16 per next gen they they were insane they were already good and and i think where i've gotten to is like i think why i was willing to almost pick them at this high as well it's like i've gotten to like okay i was worried about the dolman thing and i'm little bit worried about left tackle and I love these skill players but you still kind of need to see them do it outside of Loveland I think Loveland is just a monster but I think with the receivers you kind of want to see them actually level up before you fully buy into it I think I'm just there with the quarterback though man like the play caller we know he's special the quarterback has the talent to be special and I think we saw enough growth from him that I'm like if he does it again it's whatever you're getting out of you know a slightly diminished run game because of Bradbury and stuff, what you're going to get out of this quarterback and if Burton takes a little bit of a step, if Rome is healthy, if Loveland takes a step, it's like they just might be able to throw 400 yards a game if they really want to.

31:33Derrik Klassen: The Bears make me so nervous. And I want to stay in my bonafides. I want to stay. Well, yeah, look who I'm talking to. I believe in the quarterback and I believe even more in Ben Johnson. So to some degree, I feel silly for doubting them. but going like touching on what both of y 'all brought up a the offensive line starts to worry me at a certain point and it's it's great to hear that Ozzy Trapilo has already been activated I don't know what's going on this year but guys just being ready it's it's unbelievable but that would make me feel a little bit better but I mean we talked about it in the players that could swing the season episode Bradbury and the left tackle and it starts to feel wish casty to me at a certain point that the offensive line is going to be as good as last year.

32:18Derrik Klassen: And then look, I picked, I picked Luther burden as like one of my breakout guys. And we all think the world of Colston Loveland to Derek's point, you're talking about guys that have played like 12 good games of football and for burden, even less than that. And I get, I just get nervous to a certain point of just being like, they were good in December of their rookie year. And so now we're going to the moon and it's just all clear skies and smooth sailing from here and everything's going to be gravy. I mean, Burton's already dealing with a groin injury. Hopefully that doesn't hinder him too much, but I've seen this shit before where like you, I just, I get nervous just assuming upward linear growth, especially considering how phenomenal they were to just cannonball in and say that they're going to exponentially get better right away in year two.

33:08Derrik Klassen: It's totally possible. And if somebody is going to do it, it's probably Ben Johnson. But it just makes me a little nervous. I had him. I had him more in like the 9-10 range for me personally. But I get it.

33:19Robert Mays: That the Ben Johnson part of it is what ultimately allows me to do this. Because I think in other situations, talking about the personnel, the way you're talking about it, I would have the same reservations. I kind of do have some of the same reservations. Like there's absolutely more projection involved with this than any of the five teams that went before them. But I just think I believe in the guy running it. Like, I just believe that it is going to come together, maybe not to the best possible extent, but I have a lot of inherent faith in him being one of those dudes, like, period. And combined, if that was it, fine, that's not enough.

33:55Robert Mays: But I do think that there is a level of, like, smoldering talent here that if he can get the most out of it, we get to a place where can this be the best offense in the league? Can it be the second best offense in the league? Maybe that's a little fast, but I don't think it's crazy. I do think that there is an underlying level of just explosive ability across this entire thing that if they can channel it a little bit, Dave, going back to that Caleb is Cyclops without the visor thing, if they can put the visor on, what can this thing look like? And I do think that in year two of this, based on everything that's been said, I was there last week just talking about how much more comfortable and confident in command he feels.

34:42Robert Mays: They don't feel like they're drowning anymore. Like at this point last year, I think that they truly were just trying to keep their heads above water. And it really does sound like everybody across the board is in a place where it's like, now we have a firm grasp on this now. And I just think that set of dynamics with the talent that they have, I think the ceiling is incredibly high. Even if the floor is a little bit lower than a lot of the other teams that we're talking about.

35:09Derrik Klassen: Probably underrating what another step forward would mean for Caleb Williams. And I think he's capable of that. So that won me over a little bit thinking about that.

35:19Robert Mays: That is necessary, right? In order to justify this, that is necessary. But I do think it's possible. Everything I just said about them being a top five offense in the back half of last year happened when he was still a very flawed player. And so if you smooth over even some of those flaws, there is just something waiting on the other side that I feel like is really, really exciting. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back with pick number seven. I know, I know none of us really wants to admit it, but the end of the summer is approaching. Quince can help take some of the sting out of it, though, because look, when you look good, you feel good.

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40:03Robert Mays: All right, Dave, you're up. Pick number seven. Who are you going with?

40:06Derrik Klassen: This is really great because Mays gave into his inner demons with the Bears pick and just leaned into it. And I appreciate that. And now I'll just do my best Robert Mays impression and assign the ultimate belief in a certain organization that was frustrating last year, but I believe in bouncing back this year. I'm taking the Ravens at seven. Oh, okay. I am taking the Baltimore Ravens at seven. And we've talked about it several times this off season. They were so frustrating and so up and down and they pissed us off. That version of the Ravens with banged up Lamar pissing us off every other week finished 15th in EPA per play and 11th in offensive DVOA.

40:55Derrik Klassen: like that's what it looks like when the Ravens are frustratingly inconsistent. And so if that's like as bad as it can get, then what, I mean, we know what it looks like when it's good and the Ravens to, to borrow from Mays again, the Ravens went and they're trying to get them some Ben Johnson, magic fairy dust with Declan Doyle. I, I think that can work. And then the investment on the interior of this offensive line, I don't think we hit this in the preseason episode either, Robert, just cause there's so much to get to, but, I liked what I saw from Venga. You want a in preseason game? Number one, he looked like a big mean guy who puts the clamps on you.

41:31Derrik Klassen: And I liked it. That's what you want. So, I mean, upgrading the interior of the offensive line with some good, inspiring play calling. I didn't need Jacoby lane to have a training camp of his dreams to feel good about this, but, but it certainly, it doesn't hurt, you know? And so plugging Lamar into a much more functional situation. if he's healthy, get the running game going. I just, yeah, last year was like the floor. And if it's remotely good, then this should be like a top 10, top 12 sort of offense.

42:06Robert Mays: Even if you didn't need Jacoby Lane, just having like a little depth at receiver rather than trying to reanimate Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins, I feel like I'm a little bit more excited about that. And overall, I'm with you. I'm like several different fronts. So last season, even with all of the concerns about the offensive line quality, the interior offensive line quality, the Ravens finished fourth in EPA per carry on running back runs last year. Yeah, they were still as explosive as anybody. The success rate was way down. They were not nearly as consistent, but they were still really explosive on the ground.

42:42Robert Mays: And so now you go remake the interior. I think you can, similar to other stuff we've talked about, you know, you have John Simpson and Ioane now. Can you get by with Pinter? We'll see what happens with postage if that ends up being, you know, who ends up starting. I think they can cobble that together. You have two solid tackles in Rosengard and Ronnie Stanley. It's not an elite offensive line, but it's good enough combined with what the run game probably looks like with Derek Henry still. So you're fourth in EPA per carry on running back runs. The stat I was curious about, because they're going to do a lot more of this this year.

43:13Robert Mays: Lamar since 2023 has averaged 0.4 EPA per drop back on under center play action plays he rocks at it they just haven't done it a ton but he's so so good at it because honestly and it makes sense because if you think about it so many under center passing plays happen to be like intermediate like middle of the field type of area when he was coming out of college and when he was yeah when he was coming out of college and winning mvps and stuff that was always what he was great at was throwing that area and him turning his back doesn't freak him out if you're booting him he's obviously like the best athlete on the field like even though he hasn't done it a lot I just have so much inherent faith like I would have picked him here if I had the pick here I was going to pick them at seven like I'm I'm full steam ahead on this offense I just wasn't sure how you guys were going to feel about them I again picking at 9 10 I was kind of hoping I could get them there because I wasn't sure how much collective enthusiasm there would be I thought I might be able to leave this exercise with them but I don't blame you for doing

44:08Derrik Klassen: this at seven at all Dave I similar I mean obviously they were nowhere near as good as the bills last year but i think there's a similar tendency to look for the new and fresh and then my eye draws me back to the quarterback who's usually among the best in the nfl and i think they did a good job of upgrading or at least maybe not even upgrading because like todd munkin did a fantastic job for them in the time that he was there for them like all things considered but like just either upgrading or maintaining and yeah like tyler linderbaum's a hell of a player but the totality of what they did on the interior offsets that and i just i think in general it's in a healthy over overall place like in the depth with the pass catchers looks good the running game really didn't need a ton of help to begin with and yeah i just even if it's kind of boring i i i have the absolute faith that they'll be back where they usually are can i play devil's advocate

45:06Robert Mays: in a way i don't really believe but feel like i i i somebody should probably raise their hand what if Declan Doyle isn't good yeah of course of course maybe he's not I don't know he I mean he might not be I think at least with them if the offensive line gets to a certain spot it's almost like you know there's uh I forget who puts these charts out but like anytime Sean McVay's offensive line can protect the quarterback they're like the best offense in football anytime Lamar Jackson is protected to a decent degree he's the best quarterback in football and so I just like if they can get there even if Declan Doyle is not great I feel like it'll probably be fine he will be good I'm actually really excited to watch him but I just I think that you just never know we have like a 31 year old first time offensive coordinator I feel like somebody should raise their hand and just say maybe this won't work out I think the fact though that so many of the players are like dude he's like Rashad Bateman being like dude I'm getting to do stuff I've never gotten able to do just like it seems like they're very enthusiastic about where the offense is going and I'm sure that's some amount of like you know players are saying nice stuff about their coaches but I just believe it with this with this team and with this staff for some reason

46:10Derrik Klassen: He's got the seal of approval from Sean Payton and Ben Johnson. And short of seeing him actually do the job, that's enough for me to feel confident that he knows what he's doing. Of course, that could age terribly, but I don't have a problem believing it right now.

46:24Robert Mays: I also think he's wired the right way. I think him and Ben Johnson are caught from the same cloth, just in terms of like personality, how they think about the game, how they think about operational stuff. Like I'm very excited to see what Declan Doyle can do with this opportunity. All right. So that's seven. Derek, you are up at, eight there's a fascinating collection i hate this for you here the ravens is not good the ravens not being here is truly tough for you because all of the teams that you might pick here i think you're gonna feel disgusted that you have to pick any of them yes and like i i actually had a lot of these teams like tiered with the ravens but there was there's something about like the lamar derrick henry like i've seen this factor that i was just like i could ride with that if that's how this goes with all the other teams i'm like man you're making some sort of bet like they've got to take a leap or they've got to stay healthy or whatever it's going to be man i think i'm going to take the

47:16Derrik Klassen: los angeles chargers i think this is wondering when that was going to happen yeah i i think we've gotten a little bit over our skis about them being like they could be the best offense in football but we're taking them here at eight and i think that that is like more than reasonable

47:29Robert Mays: that they can get there i had them at seven yeah so i i don't i think this is totally reasonable I was wondering if they would go even higher than this. So I get it because the other teams and I have the next two picks so I can just spout off whoever the Bengals, the Jags, like they're my next two teams. And you specifically, I don't think could bring yourself to pick either of them because of like your personal tastes. Yeah. The Bengals screwed me last year with the wind spool. So I'm a little bit burned by them. Even if I think like it's probably more likely that the Bengals are like a better offense if everybody's healthy.

48:04and then the jaguars i'm just like i don't want to get overly invested be like emotionally in the trevor lawrence like them being elite thing so i'm just going to push that to the side you just you want to be free to be to ride that roller coaster without entanglements correct correct and i think just of this group even if there's some flaws with offensive line or skill players with a lot of the teams in this group i was just like okay i think the play caller is a machine and i think the quarterback is like football god in terms of how he's built and how he can throw i just i trust even if the other stuff isn't perfect that they can get it where it needs to be this is the only team that you has been picked so far and i would honestly think

48:49Robert Mays: maybe that's going to be picked in the entire top 15 that we're going with here that just feels like a totally total mystery box though oh 100 they could lose me the box they could lose me the draft like if the offensive line is just not waiting for you though if you're getting them at seven and they're they're the best like the second best offense in the league they could win it for you too but even the ravens like the ravens have a new play caller but i still feel like we're going to be playing in a similar enough sandbox with similar players that we have a slight understanding of like what the Ravens are that the Chargers are like we're going to open that thing up on week one and untie that president we're going to get what we get and and honestly here's what really got me there I know that we know that Mike McDaniel is great and I don't think anybody needs to like relitigate that but a stat that I pulled for all offenses from week six and on which I think like by then teams know who they are like you kind of have figured out who you're supposed to be from week six and on offenses that had an above average explosive play rate but a below average like three and out rate it was the rams the lions the patriots the bills the bears the jags and the packers one that was really close was the miami dolphins they like just fell below the below like not being good enough for the three and out rate but they were obviously incredibly explosive the fact that they got there with what the dolphins were last year i'm like dude mike mcdaniel could do anything i'm pretty sure i i obviously we don't know if they'll achieve

50:16Derrik Klassen: the highs that you daydream about like a top three offense but i think i'd be pretty surprised if they're just bad me too it like i i don't think i agree that they'll lose you this draft like i just maybe they won't be a top three offense but they certainly will be a top half of the league offense am i just in a bubble if i believe that pretty firmly do i need to top half the league offense last year weren't they yeah like i just as the walls were falling down i think they were early on and then again like everything they finished 23rd they finished 23rd in epa per play last year but but so here's my thing denver finished in dvoa 15th last year i would be shocked if they're worse offense than that like i just think the play caller and the quarterback are too good for that and if the offensive line is i mean the issue too was like one they fixed the interior but also they just didn't have their two best offensive linemen at all last year like i just it's easy to sell the

51:11Robert Mays: story that they can be a little worried that Rashawn Slater is not currently practicing Slater yes but honestly the offense was still really good even when it was just Joe Alt out there so I'm like if we can keep one out there we'll be okay we're five minutes into this pick and Derek is already immensely coping I'm already well Slater doesn't play it's fine because they

51:30Derrik Klassen: were fine without him last year the only thing gives me pause about this is just it it's the chargers and that's like totally vibes based but i mean it's real it scares the shit out of me and it's but i i have to get myself over because i've made this pick every time we've done it's the chargers recently it's been like joe lombardi calling plays or greg roman is the offensive play it's mike mcdaniel now i'm like i i have enough faith that he overrides chargersness that he will be okay i have them in the same range picks in this draft were the bears and the chargers I think those are the two biggest likes what where you could land on either end of the spectrum.

52:09I agree.

52:10Robert Mays: All right. So I'm up here with nine and ten here at the three four turn. At nine, I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah.

52:19Derrik Klassen: OK. I mean, it's depressing, but not unexpected. If they didn't screw me in the windspool last year, I probably would have taken them here.

52:28Robert Mays: It feels like the floor is lower, I think, just in part because we've seen the quarterback get hurt. and we've seen them kind of fall off because of that. I think there's probably a little bit more volatility here just because he has missed so many games over the last few years. But when those guys are all on the field together, when Burrow and Higgins were on the field together last year, the Bengals averaged 0.18 EPA per play. Yeah, they were like a top five offense. They easily would have been the best offense in the league at 0.18 when both of those guys were on the field. They have to be on the field in order for you to enjoy that, but it easily would have been the best offense in the league.

53:00Robert Mays: And so I think that you have the continuity with that entire group coming back a little bit worried about the Orlando Brown part of this. I'm a tiny bit worried about that. But I think the offensive line elsewhere has gotten good enough that I feel decent about that group overall. This team was number two in the league and rushing success rate after week five last year. I think that the under center pivot, there's a chance that some growing pains happen early in the season. But I understand exactly why they're doing it and what the potential benefits of it might look like. Like we've talked about this.

53:30Robert Mays: So they were 29th in explosive run rate from the gun last year. They were fourth in explosive run rate from under center. And so if they can just be a little bit more explosive, and I think that a lot of people have been taking the under center pivot solely as a way it means to be more explosive on the ground. When Burrow was in the game last year, the Bengals were 20th in explosive pass rate. 20th. And so I do think that this is also a pathway to them being more explosive through the air. And again, you're bringing back all the same guys. adding Eric all back into the mix and just what he gives you.

54:03Robert Mays: It's very similar to the conversation we had about the Cowboys. We're having that other blocking tight end that you can involve and just the layers and the variety provides you in the run game. So, and also just on a very, on a simpler level, I think he's the best quarterback left. So I might, I'm just going to go with the best quarterback left here at number nine. I think feel pretty good about it.

54:24Derrik Klassen: The Bengals have been, they finished sixth in EPA per play the last two times. Joe has been available for a full season. I don't really think you have to think that much harder about it. And what sucks is you get this point. You can't say you can count on that, but I don't know what it what are you supposed to do with that? It's obviously a risk, but the upside is well worth it. Yeah, I mean, I think that there's a chance they're like the second or third best offensive football. If the Eric all thing works out if they all if they don't even it doesn't even need to be 17 games. If they play 14 games together like that is going to be enough where I think that they can be a pretty elite unit.

54:56I think my reservation was just, again, one thing. I'm just burned by them burning me last year overall, which is Joe Burrow being injured for half the year. It's not even like he was playing poorly. He was obviously playing. But it can happen. It happens a lot is kind of my concern. And then also I think I just don't buy the under center thing working as well as it could. I think that's one where it could work out, but I need to see it before I actually get there with them.

55:26Robert Mays: it's going to be a process and there is a chance that it's a bet that was not worth making but i again i think that when you're trying to break through and you're trying to feel a little bit different i i understand why they're trying to lean into it more than they have been over the last couple years because of the benefits that could potentially provide them if they were

55:44Derrik Klassen: running it back if they were running it back all shotgun all the time we'd be killing them for refusing to adapt so i mean at least they're trying they would be the only team left it's not

55:56Robert Mays: it's not an exaggeration they would be the only team left because the other teams up there well kansas city we'll see what happens with kansas city but all the indications from training camp are that the chiefs are going to be under center a lot more this year so the bengals if they were not doing this they would truly be the last team washington the eagles all those other teams that were up near the top of the league and shotgun rate last year have changed and the cowboys were one of the other holdouts that not quite to the same extent, but they were more of a shotgun spread team. And last year they had like the seventh highest early down play action rate in the entire league.

56:28Robert Mays: And so the Bengals would be on their own on an Island. And maybe when you have those, those dudes it's okay to be on your own on an Island, but I get why they feel like they have to be closer to the pack and some of that stuff in order to stay a half step ahead. So what's going to happen at 10 here is miserable. I, there are so there are a lot of good options here but all of them come with flaws okay

56:57Robert Mays: the two times i mentioned before to derrick with the bangles and the jags i though they're all clumped up together here i easily could go with the jags the green bay packers finished fourth in epa per play last year we have not picked the green bay packers yet

57:15this is agonizing the best quarterback in the league is still currently on the board yes yes the best quarterback in the league is currently still on the board that that's one we're like there are a lot of other considerations there yeah i'm gonna let

57:31Robert Mays: somebody else do that like i i'm just gonna let somebody else do that i the idea of having all the love to Patrick Mahomes. I like truly all the love to Patrick Mahomes. What he has been able to do to make that a fringe top 10 offense, seemingly every single year, as long as he's healthy is remarkable. I refuse to have my fate in any way tied to Rasheed Rice and 37 year old Travis Kelsey. I I'm just, I'm just not going to do it. It's just not something I'm going to choose to do. If you guys want to do that, that's up to you. That's your life to live.

58:02Derrik Klassen: I think that's fair. Even if I might do it at some point, do you want to sign up to watch all of that methodical football like i can't do it and i i don't want to and maybe i can't do it walker will change that but even if it works it doesn't sound that fun to me and i'm here for a good time not a long time i'm down to three three options here this is really hard this is where you got to start making some some staking your claim. I'm going to get that's the problem here is that I'm going to do the opposite of that.

58:40Robert Mays: I'm going to go back on something I said, I think. I'm going to take the Niners. I hate myself. What? Why? That's not that that's not that weird.

58:53Derrik Klassen: That's like

58:54Robert Mays: he was on here two weeks ago being like, I'm done. It's over. I hate myself so much. I am such a spineless piece of shit. I hate myself so much. man have to do it i cannot do it they were they were first in passing success rate last year with kendrick bourne and like mac jones played like six games i i can't it's they were third in e paper drop back in the second half of last season with with kendrick bourne jawan jennings

59:26Derrik Klassen: and and whoever else i think there there's an important distinction here and this could apply of the Chiefs too, to be fair, but like, we're just talking about who's going to have a statistically good offense. Nothing else matters. And if there's one thing I know, Kyle Shanahan's going to cobble a functional offense together out of a ham bone and a moldy shoe. I know. I really, I don't, I wouldn't feel that conflicted about this.

59:51Robert Mays: It's mostly just because to be clear that I'm sure that when the Niners are putting up 80 points a game, which is also that's part of it here is I'm emotionally hedging against my previous take. But when the Niners are scoring like 30 points a game at some point this year, people are going to replay that clip of me saying that I was completely out on them. Just like a subtle nudge. That's the half-baked take show or not sure if we actually believe in that stuff. So just a slight disclaimer there. But that's exactly right, Dave. I mean, they're a top eight offense seemingly every single year. And even like the Pierce Hall thing, again, it was one of those in the moment.

1:00:24Robert Mays: I was like, you got to be kidding me. Like, I cannot believe we're doing this again. But when you look at the actual players on the field, if Kittle is back early, which by all accounts, he might be back for week one and is not going to go on the public. So he'll be back sooner after that. Mike Evans is practicing again. And so you do have Mike Evans in the mix here. Stripling, if he can give you something this year, we'll see. And McCaffrey is currently healthy enough, even though I think he's mispracticed, too, with like some. They just said like tightness. Yeah, strange tightness or like unknown.

1:00:56Derrik Klassen: I was like, I don't know. They're starting to whisper that maybe he's got a hold in itis. He's got, Hey, Jameer and Bijan just got paid. I would like a contract adjustment if that's at all possible here.

1:01:11Robert Mays: Here's the long and the short of all this. I don't feel good about any of it. I don't feel good about anything, but I think I have to do this just based on how consistently good they've been on offense. as long as Kyle Shanahan has been there and he's had like more than two players to work with.

1:01:28Derrik Klassen: The last time Kyle Shanahan had a legitimately bad offense was the COVID season when Nick Mullins and CJ Beathard combined to start 10 games. Kittle missed half the year. Debo missed half the year and McCaffrey wasn't there yet. And like shit probably will hit the fan in some degree. This is an old team, but it'll probably be pretty solid. Even if it's not top five, It'll probably be a pretty good offense. If I had to guess, they were, they, I was absolutely going to take them if you didn't. And it's purely just because I trust Kyle Shanahan implicitly.

1:02:03Robert Mays: Let's take one more quick break and then come back and talk about some of the teams that are left.

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1:05:15Robert Mays: all right so Derek you're up again I am shocked that the Packers haven't gone yet I probably should have taken them no I'm gonna double back on some of the things that I've said which is that I don't trust this Packers offensive line for anything which I to be fair I don't they have no idea who they're starting at guard either spot really so I'm a little bit worried about that but there's one team left on the board who I think has like an MVP caliber quarterback a play caller that is incredible and skill talent that at their best is just like insane and that's the green bay packers and so i i have to take them here like i insane skill talent insane i think at their best like if tucker craft is healthy christian watson continues to play at the level that he played and if golden takes any amount of step and like jayden reed is if that's your number three like i think the skill talent is like pretty not like obviously that is like the best case scenario for all that stuff but i do think in the best world that like it the skill talent is really really good but not like lions level elite but like pretty pretty damn good like it i i think there are a lot i'm really bullish on the group overall i just wasn't i didn't realize that you were quite as excited about them collectively as as that i i think like i i think i believe in matthew golden enough that like and like christian watson i think that was his best ball and the fact I think he played his best ball off an injury.

1:06:35I was like, dude, if he could just stay healthy and take a step. Like, I think I've come back around to, like, believing in, even if the offensive line scares me, every other factor with this team I believe in to a pretty high level. And so I think I've just gotten there with them that, like, almost to the same, not quite to the same, we haven't seen the same peaks as Shanahan, but, like, to the same level that, like, Shanahan never really has bad offenses, Matt LeFleur's offenses pretty much every time are, like, top 10. He just prints top 10 offenses and like, unless the offensive line is truly like bottom five in the NFL, which even for all my concerns, it probably won't be that because the rules for the offense are so good that it probably will just never be that bad.

1:07:17So maybe they won't be the second or third best offense in the league, but I would be shocked if they're not at least like top 12 at minimum. So I'm pretty cool taking the Packers here, even if I have my concerns.

1:07:28Robert Mays: 12 would be a significant step backward. Yeah. Well, I mean, I do think the offensive line is going to be worse, but. But I'm just saying if they take from where they've been, top 12 would be a significant step backwards. So even if you were relatively lower on them than you would be in a different season, 12 reflects that like that is baked into you picking them 11th here.

1:07:49Derrik Klassen: Derek said if Golden takes another step and I thought he said Golden Tate and I was like, what the hell did I miss? What are we expecting?

1:08:02Derrik Klassen: It's it's very I know maybe it's sacrilegious to put Matt LaFleur with Shanahan. But since Jordan Love took over, they've been seventh, seventh and fourth in EPA per play on offense. And obviously they were phenomenal when Aaron Rodgers was playing at an MVP level before that. So the track record's really good. And I feel the same way. Like I don't love the Packers offense as much as I have in years past, but I'm relatively confident. It will be a solid offense, even if it doesn't light the league on fire. I mean,

1:08:35Robert Mays: we Ben are Ted Nguyen does something every year, which he, or he talks to a bunch of defensive coaches around the league and they pull their, the offensive coordinators are hardest to go against. Matt LaFleur is directly behind Ben Johnson is fourth. Like it's, as you say, it might be sacrilegious to put in with Shanahan. And like he is in that next tier of guys. Like he has been in that next tier of guys for a long time. And so I don't think it's that sacrilegious to be putting Matt LaFleur in the rare air when it comes to like the pecking order of NFL play callers. All right. So that's the Packers at 11.

1:09:05Robert Mays: Dave, you're up at 12. Who are you going with?

1:09:09Derrik Klassen: Y 'all made my choice kind of easy on me because you methodically took every team that I had bunched around them. and I guess I'm coming for Derek's Duval crown because I am now going to have drafted both Jaguars units on these shows. And I'm okay with that. I would have been more excited to have the Bengals or maybe, honestly, I would have taken the 49ers over the Jags just because I trust Shanahan that much. But Liam Cohen's got the goods between what he did in Tampa and what he did last year. I know the Jags only finished in the middle of the pack in EPA per play last year, but after the Jacoby Myers trade down the final eight weeks of the year, they were sixth in EPA per play on offense.

1:09:52Derrik Klassen: And I know Travis HN is a loss. Don't get me wrong. I don't want to shit on him completely, but like the Jags running game was not this force that I think determined their success. And so it was actively bad for the end. Yeah. The back half of the season,

1:10:10Robert Mays: it was actively bad. I,

1:10:12Derrik Klassen: I trust Liam Cohen to figure this out. I like Trevor Lawrence. Like I said, like for there were there were several that I would have taken here, but y 'all took them all. And so I don't I get I get nervous at the lack of real ads personnel wise. But just look at it like you did your acquisition last year when you traded for Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington benefited from it. Obviously, he all the word coming out of Jacksonville is that he is building on what he did last year during training camp. They seem very, very pleased with him. and between the play caller and all of that, I just, yeah, I trust this.

1:10:49Derrik Klassen: Even if I'm not like gung ho about it, I trust it. I actually, I was really hoping to get them here.

1:10:54Robert Mays: I was really, I was really hoping you would go somewhere else. You would go with the chiefs or something.

1:10:58Derrik Klassen: You can't say you were really hoping I'd go somewhere else after agonizing and then hating yourself for picking the 49ers. That's just double talk. Well, cause I just don't like any of the teams that are left.

1:11:08Robert Mays: Like I, all of the choices I have now, I just, I, I would have been excited to have the Jags as my final team. I am not excited to have any of the teams that are left. Not quite as excited. I almost took the Jags because I actually think they have a very similar profile to the Packers, where it's like at their best, the skill talent is like really, really good. The quarterback is pretty good, even if imperfect and maybe has never quite reached MVP levels. The play caller we think is pretty good. And the offensive line is like, eh, can they really get away with that? The difference for me was just I've seen Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur do it for a longer period of time.

1:11:43and I've seen them reach higher highs. So that was the reason. But like, if you tell me that Jacksonville is fifth and Green Bay is eighth or ninth, that wouldn't really surprise me, like in the best case scenarios.

1:11:55Robert Mays: No, I think there's a tier to me, like after the top six or so, where all of these teams are kind of bunched together. And so if the Jags finish like at the top of that tier, I think you could easily make an argument that they would belong to like seventh or eighth on the entire pecking order and how you would stack these teams up. And so I'm with you. I think you could make a very similar argument for them that you could with some of these other teams. I mentioned that when Higgins and Burrow were on the field last year, the Bengals averaged.18 EPA per play. When Myers and Washington were on the field last year, the Jags averaged.18 EPA per play.

1:12:32Robert Mays: Just as good as Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. Just the exact same. And so what they showed in the back half of last season is incredibly exciting. And I would be buying the Liam Cohen stock. And I think that Trevor played his best ball by a wide margin in the back half of last year. What they leaned into just like how, not necessarily vertical, but how aggressive the passing game was. Like just the volume of intermediate, let's rip 15 to 20 yard in breakers. And just like, that's exactly where I want Trevor Lawrence to live. And that's where they had him live. And I think it was an incredibly exciting version of that collection of players.

1:13:09Mm-hmm. All right.

1:13:12Robert Mays: The correct choice here for me at 13 is the Chiefs. It is the correct choice.

1:13:23You've stated your disgust already. It's okay if you make a different choice. But every other choice here is a little bit disgusting as well. Or you're like having to make some sort of bet.

1:13:37Derrik Klassen: I'm going to go with the Chiefs. Damn it. I really was hoping you were going to push them away and I was going to get them at 14.

1:13:47Robert Mays: There's two things. There's a voice in each year here. The correct choice is to pick Patrick Mahomes in this situation, as ugly as it might be. The other voice is, do you really want to watch this all year? Do you really want to watch this all year? That's sometimes when I make choices in fantasy football. It's like, I know this is the correct choice. Do I want to be involved in this team all season? And I just think that there is a chance. I just do not want to be involved in the Kansas City Chiefs. But I think they're the last team left, other than maybe the Colts, just because we've seen the upside with the Colts, where, like, the Chiefs could easily finish third in EPA per play.

1:14:21Robert Mays: Like, that is very possible. And so even if I really, really don't want to – this is not a Patrick Mahomes thing, by the way, just to be very clear about this. Patrick Mahomes is an awesome football player. I think Patrick Mahomes is fantastic. This is everything else. I would I want to be invested in Patrick Mahomes I do not want to be invested in all the other stuff and so I'm getting yanked in two different directions but at 13 I think I have to do this yeah like I would have felt the same inclination on my next pick like if there are so a couple of teams like I think it'll be fun to make a bet on but if they had been there for my next pick I would have been like dude he's Patrick Mahomes he even if it's disgusting they'll be the ninth best offense in the NFL probably.

1:15:04Robert Mays: The only regret I had, I wish I hadn't taken the Niners. I had to do it, but I wish I already wish I hadn't taken the Niners.

1:15:09Derrik Klassen: The whole back half of this show has been you regretting your choices and immediately contradicting yourself. It's been very fun to watch. Man.

1:15:21Robert Mays: What a weird last five here. The Packers going 11 is another one that might look crazy in retrospect. All right, Derek, you're up. What do you got in 14? see i this if the chiefs were there this would have been a really easy pick for me because i think everything after this you're either banking on like really narrow upside cases or teams that are having to take a leap from where they were last year that are kind of reasonable but did not obviously do it last year i'm gonna go with the minnesota vikings i'm gonna do it oh yeah i i believe in the infrastructure enough I think I think the offensive line if they are healthy has a chance to be like an above average totally solid group they were 13th in rushing DVOA last year as like despite the quarterback being like any quarterback they were putting out they're not really helping them at all so the run game was better than I think it had been in years past so I think that can be a help I think like the quarterback situation is getting so much better even if Kyler Murray is the dead average 16th quarterback in the NFL, that I think it just lifts everything to such a degree that like, we're going to get back to the point where like Justin Jefferson is fighting to win triple crowns and stuff.

1:16:31Like I just, I don't know if this has like elite second best offense in the NFL sort of, you know, upside. But I just like, I think that the floor is so much higher than we saw last year. If Kyler Murray just plays 14 games and looks pretty good. And so I'm willing to make the bet here that they can do it.

1:16:52Robert Mays: They would have been one of my, they were one of the only other teams I had listed. Like, I don't blame you for doing this at all. For me, it was them or the Texans. And the Texans were better last year. Well, I've said a bunch of times, I believe in where the offensive line is going. And I think that CJ Stroud is better than what the playoffs look like. I just, there's something about, like I've seen Kyler Murray play at really high levels before. I think they have the best single player on any of those teams is Justin Jefferson. And like, I think squinting to see the upside case for the Minnesota offensive line is a little bit easier than it is, I think, for the Texans offensive line.

1:17:29And I think we just have more proof of concept that Kevin O 'Connell is a good play caller. So I just, I can see the upside for both teams. There was just something that was a little bit easier for me to get there with Minnesota.

1:17:39Derrik Klassen: I think I didn't give the Vikings a ton of thought. And I think it's just protecting myself because I'm so clearly invested in this working. If you've listened to the show this summer that I just needed to hedge at least one bet and just not have my year be completely ruined if Kyler is not good. But I completely obviously the upside is incredible. I completely understand the logic. The only thing I feel bad about is that now I have every team in the NFC Norse except the Bears. I've loaded up on one division, but it doesn't matter.

1:18:09Robert Mays: Yeah, it doesn't matter. It's not like the wins pool where they can't, where they have, like when they play each other, one of them has to lose. If, if anything, the offenses are also good. Maybe there's just four shootouts on each other and I'm going to look great here. That may be what ends up happening.

1:18:22Derrik Klassen: I didn't do this on purpose, but I have drafted all AFC teams and I'm going to keep that going. Interesting. Yeah. Oh. And I just, I got to say, I love when a plan comes together. Cause I put this team last on my board on purpose. Cause I knew, I knew you two haters wouldn't touch them. and I knew that I just wouldn't have to worry about it. And with the last pick in this draft, I feel great about drafting Denver. Absolutely. I mean, this is, I think, the safest pick that you can make here by far. Yeah. I mean, as unenjoyable as they were to watch at times last year, they were 10th in EPA per play and they were 15th in offensive DVOA.

1:19:02Derrik Klassen: It was not always pretty, but it was pretty effective. and we'll see how it works with the play calling switch. A, I trust what I've heard about Davis Webb and B, Sean Payton is not going to be far away. Like he'll be clicking in on the headset frequently, I'm sure. Like Sean Payton is going to be involved in this whole thing. And they added Jalen Waddle. They added a couple other intriguing pieces too. Jonah Coleman rocked in the preseason. I'm going to try not to overreact to that too much, but if you can get a little bit more out of your running game, Pat Bryant is getting all of these great reviews in training camp.

1:19:36Derrik Klassen: I just, I think this could be like, obviously we all know how we felt about last year's Broncos, but I think this could be a legitimately really good offense. If Jalen Waddell is who they traded for him to be. And so to get him with the last pick, that's the thing. I'm not, I'm not even drafting them to be an elite NFL offense. I'm drafting them in the middle of the pack. So if they're middle of the pack or flirt with top 10 production, I know no hesitation with this whatsoever. I mean, yeah, where you're drafting them, this is what they were last year. And so if adding Jalen Waddell gets them anywhere like it makes this this was the better pick than Minnesota.

1:20:16It's just what Robert was saying about, like, is this what you want to be invested in? I couldn't do that. I would rather watch Kyler Murray on the Vikings than Denver Broncos with Bo Dix.

1:20:25Derrik Klassen: I just can't shake this feeling that the Broncos are actually going to be entertaining this year I maybe I'm wrong but I do that when they traded for Waddle I was like yeah that that so perfectly

1:20:35Robert Mays: fits what they need it's also you're betting on the best offensive line remaining by far I mean it's maybe one of it's one of the best offensive lines in the league and so if they're healthy I guess but like yeah Tampa yeah Tampa's probably in that conversation too but I it's not that group up front is not a bad bet to make all right so that's pick 15 the two teams that I had written down that I would have considered based on how the draft had gone. One, the Seattle Seahawks. I think the Seahawks have a chance to be really good on offense this year. The offensive line comes back entirely. You have obviously what JSN did last year.

1:21:10Robert Mays: You have a much more varied group of pass catchers, Torrey Horton near to Elijah Royo. I'm bullish on what Jadarian price can do. Just the role they're going to ask him to play. I think the backs will be involved and be involved more in the passing game this year. I'm really actually looking forward to what the Brian flurry version of this offense looks like. And so I think the Seahawks absolutely have a chance to be a top 10 offense. And the other team that I I'm, I'm more excited about them now than I was a month ago is the Indianapolis Colts. I couldn't do it. I couldn't do it. Daniel Jones is just healthy.

1:21:47Robert Mays: No caveats. No, Okay, but I'm just saying, like, we had the entire offseason, it was, man, you're going to burn the first six weeks because you got a quarterback coming back off of an Achilles. And what does that mean for your season? He has taken every rep with the first team, and he's done everything. They're booting him out. They're moving him. Like, this is not a Kirk Cousins coming back off the Achilles sort of situation. he he has been fully healthy from day one of training camp which to me does reframe like how we should talk and think about the colts offense like now it's just the point of when alec pierce comes back if if it's not early in the season that's a different conversation but if it is early in the season now we're talking about a team that finished first in every conceivable metric over the first 10 weeks of last year, just losing Michael Pittman.

1:22:40Okay.

1:22:40Derrik Klassen: But you're, we're, we're doing a lot of gloss in here. Like you just sort of skipped over the part where Alec Pierce isn't doing anything and we don't know when he's going to be available.

1:22:50Robert Mays: I think he, that my understanding is that it's going to be sooner rather than later.

1:22:55Derrik Klassen: Okay. I mean, you were just in Indianapolis, so I, I trust, I trust you, but I get nervous. But at first it was okay. This is great. What I'm hearing about Daniel Jones is very encouraging. Now it's where's Alec Pierce? When does he get back? And how does the passing game look? I mean, Michael Pittman's not the best receiver in the NFL, but it's the way everything fit last year. We've talked about it so many times. I'd like some proof of concept that it's still going to be that nicely this time around. And not to say that it can't, but I'd feel a hell of a lot better if Alec Pierce was getting reps.

1:23:29Robert Mays: I think he would be back sooner rather than later. I think there is a very, there is a conceivable universe here that's not hard to imagine where Alec Pierce is back by week one and Keenan Allen is on this team. And I think that collection of pass catchers plus the quarterback being healthy, plus we're talking about who you're betting on. Shane Steichen is the best play caller left by far. Yeah. And so this team has the highest ceiling of all the teams that we didn't pick by a lot. Yes. And we've heard, and we've already seen it again. obviously it's maybe a little bit lower with some of the things that they've lost, but we did see it before the quarterback got hurt.

1:24:05I think for me, it was just like, I probably think the floor is lower than not even necessarily than some of the other teams, but just like, then maybe you did.

1:24:16Robert Mays: Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's fair, but the Seahawks and the Colts were the other two teams I considered. All right. So Dave, you pick, you pick first. Do you have any other teams you wanted to mention, Derek, before we go through the teams? The only thing I wanted to say, I think Tampa was the weirdest team for me to try to get a handle on because the offensive line is incredible I think the quarterback plays fine I think the skill players are night like they were just a weird team that like I think the ceiling is not that high but if they're like we look up and they're the 12th best offense I don't think it'll be that weird I wouldn't have blamed someone for taking them I it would just been hard for me because the ceiling is just not that exciting yeah

1:24:52Derrik Klassen: It's also, I mean, it's dangerous doing these shows during training camp, but I just read a report within the last 10 minutes about the Bucs not knowing when Emeka Ibuka is going to be available. Well, that would change things. Emeka Ibuka's got a toe injury. Chris Godwin, between age and injury history, it's hard to feel super great about that, and all of a sudden it's a little thinner than I want it to be. And the Bucs, I mean, the division they play in helps them, But like the bullishness I felt about them last year is just it's not materializing this summer.

1:25:27Robert Mays: Yeah, the Todd Bowles, when asked about him, echo book is timeline per Greg Allman. What would impact his week one availability? Not sure at this time. Good stuff. This is coming from the same team where the Bucky Irving thing was like, oh, he'll be back. And then he just did fine. And he was just like MIA. Yeah. So that's that's always good.

1:25:46Derrik Klassen: I guess with the one team that we haven't even brought up, I mean, Seattle. is a good one. And then I understand there's a host of reasons to be scared of this, but Philadelphia is out there in the ether somewhere. And maybe if Sean Mannion's awesome, they clearly still have so much firepower. Going back to the whole, do I want to sign up for this for the entire football season though? Like, do I want to do the weekly sky is falling? Oh, we scored 38 points. Everything's good. And now the sky is falling. What happened to the cool plays from September? Where did those go? Like, I just, it might be great, but I just don't want to sign up for, for that ride right now.

1:26:27Derrik Klassen: I signed up for some rides.

1:26:29Robert Mays: I think I'm going to regret. I signed up for some, I signed up for some rides where at some point this year, I'm going to want to get off the ride. Even if it ends up coming out fine. All right, Dave, you, you pick first, who are your five teams?

1:26:43Derrik Klassen: I went with the Buffalo bills, the new England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Denver Broncos a full a full AFC team which was a total accident but I'm not mad about it Derek I had the Dallas Cowboys who not sure I should have taken them over the Rams but I was sticking to my board uh given I thought the Rams were gonna go first so I had the Cowboys I had the Detroit Lions I had the Los Angeles Chargers and then I had the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings?

1:27:14Robert Mays: I have the Los Angeles Rams, the Chicago Bears, the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Those last three are just, I understand why I did them. There is just so much baked into those three picks. It is going to be one hell of a year. Those are like some white knuckle picks. You're like, just hanging on. Because you understand why in the moment, but like all of those teams, Like it's just been some kind of an adventure for all three of those over the last five years. And to willingly sign up for all of them in the same exercise is maybe something I will come to regret, but there's a reason that they're, they were all appealing in the moment.

1:27:54Robert Mays: Joe Burrell, Kyle Shanahan and Patrick Mahomes might be enough to smooth it over. All right. That is all we've got for today. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We will be back tomorrow. One quick note, live show, September 1st in Chicago at Lincoln Hall doing the Winspool Draft live. Tickets are going fast. So if you want them, make sure to jump on them now, 7.30. We will do some Q &A after, some meet and greet after. We would love to see you guys. We would love to meet you. We'd love if you could spend some time with us. So please come and hang out. Tickets are available on the Lincoln Hall website and in the description below.

1:28:31Robert Mays: For now, that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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