Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford? It's the TAFS 2025 Awards Show!

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays given out some 2025 awards today.

0:22This to me is like one of the more interesting arguments among all of these. And Dave actually kind of shocked me. We had the same pick. I did not anticipate that happening. Dug into coach of the year, which I, again, an incredibly crowded field. I really enjoyed that conversation. And then, you know, the MVP debate, the one that we have not talked that much about on this show, but obviously there's tons of stuff to dig into there and really enjoyed kind of untangling the Matthew Stafford versus Drake may discussion with my guys Derek Klassen and Dave Hellman. So let's get to that conversation right now.

1:00Time to hand out some 2025 season-long NFL awards. We haven't really talked about any of this stuff for the most part since our mid-season show. I feel like we could have mined the MVP debate more than we did. That's why I'm bad at content, I guess. But how? Like going back and forth on the same like in other years it's like I remember I think it was 2023 when Lamar won it it was like Dak had an insane like surge toward the end and so it was like there it felt like there was more intrigue this year it kind of did feel like it's from like week seven on it was Drake made it's it's felt very cut and dry and I also kind of appreciate just letting it get to the end and marinating on it because I'm the one and I don't regret it by the way he was playing great but after five or six weeks I was like yeah Baker Mayfield would be my MVP right now and look how insane that looks in January.

1:50So like, it's not a bad thing to just sort of let things simmer. We, I think checking in on it at mid-season and then checking in on it at the end of the year, the way that we do, I'm fine with that process. Like, I think if I will continue to do it that way for the rest of time, as long as I'm in charge of programming the show. It's so tedious to every week be like, well, well, well, look who threw a pick today. Like, it's not for me. We're going to wait till the end to do MVP the same way we do every single time we have an award show on this podcast. We're going to start where my midseason notes started.

2:18I just used the same outline. That's how we're laying this out. There's no more complicated than that. With Offensive Player of the Year, I had JSN midway through the season. He was having a historic season. He still had an incredible season. He is not my winner now. Dave, why don't you kick us off? Who is your Offensive Player of the Year? That's really funny, and it speaks to how much can change in half a year because when we did this at midseason, I made the case for Jonathan Taylor, and I was really high on that and I was very adamant that how he was fueling Indianapolis' offense needed to be recognized.

2:50Obviously, a lot has changed since we did that show. And I actually, and I love doing shows like this with y 'all because we see things similarly, but just different enough to make it interesting. And you said before the show that it's not going to be JSN for you. That's who I landed on when I went through this. I think there's a reasonable argument for JSN. I landed on Jackson Smith and Jigba as my offensive player of the year. And it sounds ridiculous to say he hasn't been as good in the second half of the season. I mean, he finished with 1 ,700 yards for the number one seed in the NFC. It hasn't been quite as incredible, I would say, over the last like five, six weeks.

3:29We know the Seahawks offense has sort of faltered a little bit. But at the end of the day... Slice step back. Okay, yes. 119 catches, almost 1800 yards, 10 touchdowns, led the league in explosive plays, slightly trailed Puka Nakua in yards per route run, 11 air yards per target. And here's the thing that ultimately differentiated this for me, because for me, it came down to, with all due respect to Christian McCaffrey, who had a phenomenal season. If he won this award, I wouldn't bat an eye. but between Pukunakua and Jackson Smith and Jigba, I looked at it and the differentiator for me was that JSN led the league in team target share.

4:10That to me is the most compelling argument. 36 % of Seattle's targets went to Jackson Smith and Jigba. And what percentage of their receiving yardage? Like it was like up near 40 for a good majority of the season. It's not like it was a Michael Thomas. He had a higher percentage of his team's receiving total than like any receiver in the past like several decades. And I would argue with all due respect to Cooper Cup had like a nice year for where he is in his career. And Seattle's got some good backs and the tight ends played their roles in this offense. But it's the JSN show. And he was the focal point of that offense for the entire year.

4:45And basically no one was able to slow him down or shut him out. He got his yards. He got his production. He helped the Seahawks score points all season long, despite not really having that Batman or Robin next to him. I mean, Devontae Adams led the NFL in touchdowns this year. That's who Puka Nakua was working with. And Puka Nakua might be the best receiver in football, but season totality and what happened and what it looked like on the field for all of those reasons, I came away thinking JSN should win this award. I get it because I almost picked JSN still, even with the last like five or six weeks kind of being a little bit dampened.

5:22I do think part of the reason I was still willing to really, really entertain was one that season end stats are still incredible. but also like I never felt like the Seahawks offense faltering had anything to do with him. It wasn't like I was watching the Seahawks and being like, man, JSN's not playing as well. It's like, no, defenses are adapting to JSN being so damn good. And then the offense has tried to find other things as like a drop back game and a run game. And it's just been a little bit herky-jerky. So since the last time we did this, and we just talked about it, Seattle's offense has taken a step back.

5:54It hasn't been quite as fun as what they were doing in the first six, eight weeks. his worst game of the back half of the year he caught two balls for 23 yards against minnesota the max brosmer game where you knew 10 minutes into this thing that you didn't need to get out of first gear to win this game everything else it's six for 84 nine for 72 seven for 113 like he wasn't chunking up stinkers at all like he was still having a really good year it just speaks to how insane the first eight or nine weeks were i think he has a really good argument he would be in my final four, final five. He'd be in my final five.

6:30He'd probably be like in the top three. The guys that I had up there that I did not give the award to and I don't think you did either. And so I'm happy to just list off kind of the honorable mentions here. I think Bijan has to be in the conversation. Sure. 2 ,300 yards from scrimmage. He's an incredible player. I'm very excited to see what he can do moving forward. I think this is kind of the first glimpse we've gotten of just how special he is this year. But I just don't think when you compare it to the receiving seasons, it's quite on the same level. We'll get into that in a second. JSN is there for me.

6:57McCaffrey is just beyond the production for McCaffrey. And again, you look at the total yards from scrimmage that he had this year. It's the importance to the offense and what he does to make that offense what he is, what it is, the gravity, what it does to opposing defenses from a coverage perspective, the amount of bodies they dedicate to the run when he's in there, the difference with man zone and just like what teams are willing to do against the Niners. It's very fun because for the most part, the only difference between the 2024 Niners and the 2025 Niners is Christian McCaffrey. And if you look at how differently teams play against them, as an experiment, your control is Christian McCaffrey.

7:34That's really the only thing that's changed. And so he's just one of the most impactful players in the league, full stop. And Jonathan Taylor had an incredible season. Obviously, he fell off, but I think it's worth mentioning. All that being said, none of those guys are my offensive player of the year. Puka Nakua. It's Puka Nakua. I knew that would probably be y 'all's choice. Is he yours too? He is also my choice. He was, I think part of it is, I mean, obviously the season long stats are incredible, but in a way that is a little bit different to me than JSN, he was like dominant wire to wire in a way that like because of the Seattle offense falling off a little bit, I didn't quite feel that way.

8:08And then almost similar to McCaffrey, even though Devontae Adams is great, there's a lot of other reasons that the Rams offense works. It all does run through Pukunokua. and him having 17.3 % of his routes turned into first downs. That's the second best rate in the decade, only behind 2023 Tyreek Hill, which that was another incredibly special season. And then the other thing for me was honestly, when I'm giving out some of these awards, especially at the end of the season, I'm just thinking of like, okay, whose plays do I remember the most? And twice a game with Puka Nakua, he's making some outrageous catch that would be the best catch of anyone else's season.

8:45and he's doing that twice a week. Like he's the most dominant player, I think, at that position. What's crazy to me is Puka had 1 ,400 yards as a rookie. And then last year, he was incredibly productive. He had 1 ,400 yards as a rookie and then last year he led the league in yards per route run. He is a dramatically better player this year than he was in each of his first two seasons. And there's a bunch of numbers I'm going to read off. The first one, and this is to me, the biggest jump he made this season and why he has gone from a player who I think is very productive to one who is genuinely special.

9:19He led the league in EPA per route against man coverage this season. That was the only weakness in his game last year, is when he would have to play outside the numbers when he was in one-on-one situations. That's not where he was best. This year, for a bunch of different reasons, I think his route running and his release game and just the nuances of his game were so much better in those situations. what he was doing in contested catch moments against man coverage. He had a 20.8 % catch rate over expectation against man this year, which was number one in the NFL by far. And anecdotally, that lines up with the players that you're talking about.

9:55Contested catches overall. He had 27 contested catches, Puka did, that led the league. Some of that is driven by opportunity. He had a 71.1 % contested catch rate per PFF. He's the only player in the top 20 of contested targets total with a catch rate over 70%. That level of efficiency with that level of volume is insane. That's the thing. Like truly insane. With volume like that, it's like, oh, he got a bunch of opportunities. Those opportunities are earned. He gets them because he's insane. And Matthew Stafford knows that he's going to make them. Exactly. Every play to Puka right now is an opportunity because of what he's doing in one-on-one situations, even down the field.

10:34And that was not the strength of his game previously. the two numbers to me that blow it out of the water puka led the nfl and epa per route run per next gen stats there is a bigger gap between him and jsn at two than jsn and ryan florinoy at 14 what ryan florinoy and this is the kicker 115 total receiving epa for puka this year per next gen stats. Pickens was second at 82. That's some nice. Wait, what was Puka's like 115? 115. That 115 mark is the best mark of the next gen era. It's better than the Cooper Cup triple crown season. It's better than the Michael Thomas 2019 season. By a lot of measures, he had the most impressive receiving season in the last decade.

11:19Better than what Jamar Chase did last year. The touchdowns are not overwhelming, but the per route, per play, per target metrics. And we said this when we were watching games on Sunday. When you watch the Rams this year, anytime the ball was in the air and you knew it was going to him, you just expected that he was going to make an insane play. And he did most of the time. It's it was we've talked about the phenomenon of like Pete Patrick Mahomes. If he rolls out of the pocket and as soon as the ball releases, you're just like he's hitting Kelsey somewhere and it's going to be completed. I feel that way when I know that Stafford is targeting Nakua and the ball's in the air and like they're contested, he's fighting on the sideline.

11:55I'm like, he'll come down with it. Like it's, I don't even consider that it's going to be dropped. I mean, ironically, it was a play that he didn't finish, but we talked about it on the Falcons recap show. That, not catch, that almost catch at the sideline against the Falcons where he just went over the top one-handed and looked like he was going to get them in a position. I've seen receivers do that when they're catching on the jugs. Right. You know, I've never seen that in a live must have game on the line situation. No, I have not. And then the one that didn't count against the Falcons that got called back, the one down inside the five that can like crazy contested catch that he had.

12:32Some of his plays that didn't count are the most impressive plays of the NFL season. So here's I agree with everything that you just said, and I feel like you're going to accuse me of talking out of both sides of my mouth a lot on this show because of the way that I view this. But when I think of offensive player of the year, like I think I would say Pukunuku is the best receiver in football coming out of this season. But when I think about these awards, I'm trying to think of like the story of the season and week over week and JSN being it for the Seattle offense that won 14 games, having the season that he had.

13:09and it's not all about wins and losses. Don't get me wrong, but to be sitting on top of the NFC with an offense that not very many people were bought in on heading into the season. And it's so much about what JSN did every single week. He showed up for that offense every single week. And I think I would take Puka over him if I were drafting them as players, but I think he had the more memorable season for me that I'm gonna, like when I think about the 2025 season, and I'm going to be like, oh, that was when JSN just went off and was the focal point of an entire team. I think that was true halfway through the year.

13:45I think what Puga did in the back half of the season, and you put the spectacular plays in there, I think that his play lingers more for me than JSN's does because I think of the high-white moments. I do agree with that. It's not just the high-white moments. It's the production was also more overwhelming than what JSN did. And when you combine those two things together, that's enough for me. All right, let's get to Defensive Player of the Year. I don't even spend a lot of time on who the winner of this should be. Last time we did this I remember I came up with a guy and I was like well we're gonna say Myles Garrett but that's boring so I'll come up with a guy but I didn't bother this time like it's Myles Garrett.

14:22Yeah why would you he broke the sack record like he was I'm glad we got to spend a lot more time on offensive player of the year and probably some of these other words because defensive player of the year it's he broke the sack record you have to give it to him. The only thing I will say and I think I've brought this up every single time we've talked about defensive player of the year in Myles Garrett is that in my opinion, in any other season, Will Anderson should be the defensive player of the year. He's the only other guy I wrote down. I wrote under Myles Garrett. I was like, but we should celebrate others.

14:50And then I wrote Will Anderson Jr. And then I just stopped the list because I was like, I don't even know if anyone else, except maybe like Micah Parsons before he got hurt was close to what Will Anderson was doing. Yeah, he went down and that had an effect, obviously. So I just, I just want to talk about, this is funny for me because we've danced around this a little bit. A lot of the videos I've done this year have kind of focused on these sorts of players. I think if you look at like the most improved players in the NFL this season, it's a fun list. Like Alec Pierce is up there for me. Like point A to point B.

15:18I actually think that JSN and Puka are in the conversation for the most improved players in the NFL this season. Like what they were last year and what they were this year. Which again, with Puka, that sounds insane. But like what he is down to down is so much better. I legitimately think that Will Anderson is in that conversation too. Like he went from being - You've been banging that drum since August, so. Will Anderson has been awesome, was awesome before this year, but he took a dramatic leap in a lot of different ways. And if you just look at some of the statistical numbers for Will Anderson this year, the sacks aren't overwhelming, but what he's doing down to down is absolutely crazy.

15:54He finished third in the NFL in quick pressures per next gen stats. Only Miles Garrett was chipped more often this year than Will Anderson. Only Miles Garrett. in the entire league. He led the NFL in PFF pass rush win rate. He finished second in pressure rate in one-on-one situations this year per next-gen stats. He led the NFL by a lot in splash play percentage, which is, it's a combination of a lot of different things. It's like pressures, sacks, run stops, TFLs, third and fourth down stops. He led the league by like several percentage points according to True Media. And when you look at it, it's not just what he did as a pass rusher.

16:28he finished third in the nfl in run stop percentage among players who played at least 150 run defense snaps on the edge third he's in case that was the selling point coming in is that was okay he can be a really good run defender we'll see what the ceiling is as a pass rusher the fact that he's absolutely hit the ceiling as a pass rusher it's higher than i thought it would be it is he's a better pass rusher this year than i the what he was as a pass rusher this year is beyond the pass rush ceiling, I think you could have like the median outcome pass rush ceiling for him. It felt like he would be dominant run defender, pro bowl pass rusher.

17:05Yeah. Like that to me, like coming out, which it still might end up in the wash, like an all pro player altogether. But he truly is like one of the most special pass rushers. He was the second best defense player in the league. Yes. After Micah Parsons got hurt. I don't have this on the record, so I can't beat my chest too hard. And I didn't see Will Anderson becoming the second best pass rusher in the league, but I knew he was really, really good. And I do remember feeling like when people talked about his projection coming out of college, I was like, no, like this, this could be a double digit sack guy, like with regularity and maybe better.

17:37Like I never felt like he really got the kudos he deserved coming out. So I'm glad this is happening. And first team all pros, a nice consolation prize. Cause other than that, it's bad timing to have an amazing year. Cause Miles Garrett has 23 sacks and, and I love Will Anderson. that's really great. I do think it's worth saying like definitively deserves to win. I don't care. Miles Garrett? Yes. Okay. We're talking a lot about Will Anderson. It's such a given that Miles Garrett should win. We're glossing over Miles because there's not much to say, but like what an incredible season and what an incredible player.

18:12I said it on Sunday. It's an all-time great season by an all-time great player. I'm glad you said that because that was the big thing I wanted to look up because he's going to win this award. I don't have a vote, but I feel confident saying that. Only eight players in league history have one defensive player of the year multiple times. It'll be bad podcasting if you guess, so I'll just tell you. But they are bad motherfuckers. Taylor, Ray Lewis, J.J. Watt, Aaron Donalds. Did Julius Peppers win it twice? No. Bruce Smith. Yep, that's a good one. You're doing great. Reggie White, you're doing great.

18:47Have you said— Mike Singletary. Oh, you're one away. So what did you say he was eight? Eight. You're at seven. Ed Reed didn't do it. It's old school, iconic old school NFL player. It's like one of the Steelers guys? Yes. Pretty famous nickname, Drink Coke. Ninja Green? Yeah, there you go. Okay. That is an incredible list. I feel pretty fucking good about doing that off the dome. That's amazing. I feel pretty good about that. Well freaking done. But that's the list. And Miles Garrett's going to be on it now. And well deserved. But like when you think about Myles Garrett, that's the company that he's about to join.

19:24I'd said it on Sunday. There are three guys that since I started watching this league and since I started covering the league that stand above everybody else's defensive players. It's him, Aaron Donald and JJ Watt. They're like in their own conversation. And he now is joins that group of those guys. Two of three of the eight players that have ever done this twice. And I think this season really was a reminder of obviously he's been incredible to this point. I'm so excited to see where it ends because he has like 10 more sacks before age 30 than anyone else ever. And his game is going to age well.

19:53He's 280 pounds and strong as hell. Long as hell. He had the best season of his career, I think, this year. This year, yes. I think a lot of the pressure numbers and things like that just because of how much... Think about the Steelers game, right? Just anecdotally, think about the Steelers game. How hard teams made it for him to dominate some of these games. So I think when you look at those traditional numbers, they're going to be lacking when you think about all-time greatness, but just watching him down to down and what he was as a player this year, I think this might be the best version we've ever seen of Miles Garrett, the football player.

20:24Which is funny. We said that last year. Yeah. And he was better against the run this year than he's ever been in his entire career. We talk about that, like guys run defense numbers. He's up there this year in terms of runs, run stops. And that was never really the thing you would mention about Miles Garrett. But I think you can make a serious argument that this was maybe the best season he's ever had as a run defender, which I think is incredibly impressive and worth noting. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about a couple of rookies.

20:58All right, Offensive Rookie of the Year. I know we have the same pick, so I'm going to start with Dave. I bet it's a sweep then just because I know, well, I know Derek. But look, so my thing with offensive rookie of the year, like there's a lot of guys that deserve consideration. But in my opinion, a lot of guys that didn't put together an entire campaign of sustained success. Like Tyler Shuck had a phenomenal second half of the season. I'm more than happy to eat crow about how good he was. But still talking about a guy that didn't take the field till November. Jackson Dart. I mean, raw numbers alone, 2 ,700 yards and 24 touchdowns.

21:34But you only start 12 games. You missed some time due to injury a little bit. And also, like, the results weren't always that good. Like, the Giants were not a good football team. Emeka Ibuka, not all his fault, certainly, but he averaged three catches for 30 yards over the final eight weeks of the season. And then Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland kind of flip-flopped when they were good. You know, like, you're still talking, like, eight to ten weeks of sustained success. And in the middle of all that, Ted Arroa McMillan was a starter day one, played all the way through the season, 17 weeks as a starter, 17 weeks of production, only thousand yard rookie on the year, led all rookies in receiving touchdowns.

22:13He was much like JSN, not as good as JSN, but like he was it for the Carolina offense. Immediately. Immediately. Immediately and consistently. Unambiguously, the most important pass catcher on their team from day one. With the exception of the Seattle game, which A, Seattle's a much better team and B, he had the flu. He was consistent all season long. He didn't put up a ton of duds and just looked the part of a top 10 pick. There were a lot of guys that had good moments this year, but he was from beginning to end the best offensive rookie. I couldn't agree more like wire to wire. He was so clearly and immediately the guide for that team.

22:49And I think you really see it in like, obviously the run game was really good at certain parts of the year, especially for the first like eight or 10 weeks or so. But the passing game, it only really moved because they were throwing the ball at Terrell and McMillan. And I want to read you guys the list of over the past decade, rookies and their first downs, first down rate per target. The first 14 players, Michael Thomas, T. Higgins, Ladd McConkie, Justin Jefferson, Tedaroa McMillan, Jamar Chase. So he's between those two, by the way, the two LSU stars. Pretty good company. Rashi Rice, Puka Nakua, Jalen Waddell, CeeDee Lamb, Devonta Smith, Drake London, Amon Ross St.

23:26Brown, Chris Olave. it. It is all like minimum Pro Bowl and a handful of all pros. Like he's one of those guys with not very good quarterback play for a lot of this. Like some of those guys had some good players with them. This was a struggle for Ted Rowe and McMillan. For him to get to a thousand yards, be as efficient as he was, he's an incredible football player. I don't think it's a conversation. With Nabuka falling off the way he did, with Tyler Warren falling off at the end of the year for reasons that are not his fault, obviously. I don't even think it's a conversation. Like the quarterbacks, last year giving it to Jaden Daniels over Brock Bowers, fine.

23:57Jaden Daniels played the entire year. Jane Daniels was the quarterback of an elite offense when you look at the numbers. Jane Daniels had a great season. This year, if we had given it to one of the quarterbacks over Tedrow and McMillan, that would be a crime. Like, you should have to play most of the season to win these awards. I fully support that. Tedrow and McMillan was the best rookie in terms of this sort of award. The last thing I will say about this, the best offensive rookie in the NFL this year, the best one, not the one who should win offensive rookie of the year, is Colson Loveland.

24:29He's the best player. We will talk about this tomorrow. I went back. I think if you just purely, like the best offensive rookie in the NFL this year, I think it is Colson Loveland compared to his position. I will say this. Colson, speaking of, like takes that aged well. We brought up Loveland on the midseason show and we were like, oh, we might have to talk about this guy in a few more weeks because at that point, and he'd only played like two good games. He's amazing. And I think I said to y 'all on Sunday, like skill players wise, I think he's certainly the best player on the Bears offense. Like just watching him make plays and when they go to him and what's on the line and why they target him, can't say enough.

25:14I think I'd still probably take McMillan, especially considering the quarterback play that each is getting. I don't think that's, that's a different conversation to me. Just in terms of like, because it's positional value and it's things like that. Like, but I think when you compare him to his peers. Oh, you just mean among tight ends or? Just like the best player. Like the best player when you compare him to other guys at the position and like the hierarchy in the league. Like the best NFL players right now, I think from the 2025 rookie class is Colston Loveland. Okay. I actually do think I agree with that.

25:45Like if I, if Colston Loveland is the third or fourth best tight end in the league by this point next year, I don't think I'll be shocked. For as much as I love Ted O 'Reilly and McMillan, I would probably be a little surprised if he's that good. I think that's right. And I think honestly, third or fourth is like, he might be better than that. I don't think it's that crazy. What he does as a receiver, his instincts as a receiver, his feel for the game at 21 years old is wild. The thing that puts it over the top for me, when I came to this thought, it was actually, it's the first play of the Bears game against the Packers the last time they played.

26:18He goes in motion and kicks out Edger and Cooper on the right side. and the way he snaps his hips into that block, he is an explosive blocker now. A lot of the guys who have his receiving talent, just pure skill and ability, do not have his talent or explosiveness as a blocker this early in their careers. The combination of everything and how complete of a player he already is at 21, he's going to be insanely good if he stays healthy. Insanely good. Now I'm just digging, I'm looking through the draft class because I'm just trying to think because there are so many good players in this draft class that were never going to win these sorts of awards, you know?

26:58So now I'm just trying to think, like, do I think he's better than, like, Armand Membu? Like, is that? I do. Okay. I'm not saying you're wrong. I think I just need more time. Armand Membu is good for a rookie. Right? Coles Loveland is just good. Yeah. He's a phenomenal player, and I think he is. We've talked about him plenty, but he's still probably not getting enough credit for where the Bears are. I just don't think we've really dug into what he is already as a player. And actually, we'll say in terms of moving forward into next year, debating if you just want this player on your team, I honestly think positional value goes out of the board if you are the second best guy at your position.

27:32Sure. If you are that level of a difference maker, I don't think any of the positional stuff really matters. I always think I'm ready for what we're going to talk about on these shows, and I'm never, ever right. Get to defensive rookie of the year. This is going to be an interesting one because I went in a direction I didn't necessarily expect after looking at some of the numbers and just digging into it. Derek, why don't you kick this off? Who's your defensive rookie of the year for 2025? Mine is boring because it's the same player I came into with the midseason awards, but to me, it's still Carson Swessinger.

27:59And it's for a couple of reasons. One, 78 stops this year, which like next-gen stats basically counts as like tackles you make that are negative EPA plays for the offense. And he was 10th in the NFL with those. He had 20 quarterback pressures, two and a half sacks, very good moving downhill, which also in the run game was very surprising to me given what he was coming out of college. He's a little bit lighter. I thought he was going to be like Terrell Bernard, like a really good run through player, but not necessarily a guy who was taking back space. I thought he actually did that really well.

28:26And then in coverage, I thought that he was pretty good this year. I think he's already good at understanding zone awareness and knowing when crossing routes are coming back into his face. He had an awesome interception on Drake May where I still remember May saying like, I just forgot he could jump, which was a really funny one of my favorite quotes of the season. So I think it's all of that. And then this is a position that so rarely guys come into the league and are. It's a great point. Awesome. It's a great point. Like, usually, like, even Fred Warner took, like, two or three years. And, like, really, since Roquan Smith, we don't get that many guys who, like, year one are insane.

28:56And even Roquan, it was mixed. Yeah, exactly. It was mixed early in Roquan's career. It was not, like, great from day one. Right, the flashes were incredible. Yes. But you still, there were some ups and downs. Whereas I watched Swessinger. Keeley is, like, the exception. Keeley was, like, really good from day one. And that was 15 years ago. And Keeley's a whole fame player. Exactly. It was 15 years ago. I was thinking about offensive rookies when we just had the leveling conversation. Carson Swessinger deserves mention when you're talking about like, who's the best football player at his position relative to being a rookie.

29:23Carson Swessinger is my pick too. I will hear Abdul Carter. I get it. I know the pressure numbers. That's my, that's my pick. That's why I went that way. It's just like, if you look at it, the production with the sacks is not there, but down to down what he was as a pass rusher, he was 12th in total pressures this year he finished first in the league in both quick pressures and time to pressure per next gen abdul carter did first in the nfl maybe i just spend too much time with derrick now but i could just i could hear him in the back of my head going through this where just like there's a linebacker problem in modern football there aren't enough good ones like there aren't enough guys who know how to play off the linebacker that's my favorite part of the argument i like that he's eighth in the entire league in tackles and he missed a game he led all rookies and tackles for loss.

30:10He's one of 50 players with double digit tackle for loss, and he's one of only two rookies. He's tied for second among all off ball linebackers and tackle for loss. Two and a half sacks. He's one of 12 off ball linebackers with multiple interceptions. Did all of that at a rookie at a position that's notoriously hard to figure out in the NFL at the end of the day. Abdul Kar is awesome. And he did exactly what I thought he would do. Like I said, Maybe it's like the excitement of seeing that type of linebacker where you watch him and you're like, oh, that guy, he's awesome. That got me over the finish line.

30:45There were two awards that we're going to talk about to me that were coin flips. That was like, I changed my answer immediately before we started. The defensive rookie of the year was one of them between Abdo Carter and Swessinger, and assistant coach of the year is the other, which we'll get to. Can I say, I would like to at least mention Nick Emanwari. I think there are three other guys that I think I would throw out here. There is, it's more of an existential argument, though, where like Nick Imanwari is the big nickel that let Mike McDonald call his defense the way he wanted to. And again, if you're talking about like the narrative of the 2025 season, that matters so much.

31:21Like Seattle's defense is this fire-breathing monster, not purely because of Nick Imanwari, but he was a big part of unlocking that and helping them play the way that they wanted to. ultimately I thought Swessinger's performance was just that good that I gave him the nod I did think about Emin War for that reason because he's like he's an imperfect player still and his lows were lower than these other two but he is kind of the skeleton key for the way that this thing unlocked and so I totally would have got if somebody went that way one of the other ones and this might be one of the ones you were mentioning Malachi Starks was really really good this season I had him up there Malachi Starks and I think Xavier Watts was really good for the Falcons and James Pierce had 10 and a half sacks for the Falcons as a rookie.

32:02Down to down, like overall, I don't think he played enough to get this. He had like 40 pressures on the year and he is an objectively bad run defender at this point. And so I don't think he should be defensive rookie of the year, but he deserves a mention. The guys who have had double digit sacks as rookies, it's a very small list of players. We, Dane and I did his all rookie team yesterday on building the beast and going through it. I was like, holy crap. There were a lot of really fun rookies this year. Like it was for not being this super sexy draft last year, like a whole hell of a lot of really fun early contributors came out of it.

32:36Let's get to our next one here. First time we've done this on a year end awards podcast. Protector of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off here? I don't want to. This gave me high. This is a tough one. This gave me high. It's a tough one. Because so here's my thing. Like and it wouldn't be lazy. He's an amazing player. but it would have just been easy to give it to Lane Johnson for all that he's done and his role in the offensive line community in the NFL and the fact that he's going to be a Hall of Famer and he's incredible even at this advanced stage of his career. And we saw what they looked like when they didn't have him.

33:11With the injury though it just it's hard and anticlimactic. You can't do that. And so then I you get stuck between a bunch of other options and again it It goes back to, I know that there are some really incredible guys. I think people are going to bring up Panay Sewell, and that is completely fair. People are going to bring up Aaron Brewer in Miami, and that is wonderful. And I keep saying it, like wins don't necessarily matter, but I'm thinking about like the story of the season and how did we get here and what matters. And I landed on the fact that the Denver Broncos are the number one seed in the AFC.

33:48we don't really like their quarterback that much what enabled Bo Nix to play well enough to lead the Denver Broncos to the number one seed in the AFC and you look at it and you say Garrett Bowles is one of eight offensive tackles in the NFL who played 400 or more pass blocking snaps and allowed fewer than 20 pressures he's the only one of those eight who played all 17 games and the only one who didn't allow a sack. He's one of three offensive tackles to play 80 % or more of his team's pass blocking snaps and not surrender a sack. And at the end of the day, when it's razor thin, I think it matters that he was one of the anchors of an offensive line that helped the Denver Broncos be the best team in the AFC.

34:32So I pick Garrett Poles. Garrett Poles is a very good choice. I think there are a lot of guys worth mentioning. You talked about a couple of them. Based on what Derek says, we'll hit some of the rest. But Derek, where did you land with Protector of the Year? I honestly landed with what feels like the laziest one in Panay Sewell. That was also my thing. He's still incredible. And I know the Lions, obviously, the offensive infrastructure overall fell a little bit. But according to Sports Info Solutions, among tackles, he had the second lowest blown block rate in pass protection. Only behind Andrew Thomas, who also worth mentioning for this.

34:59If Andrew Thomas hadn't missed time, he would absolutely be in the conversation. He would 100 % be up here. So you have Sewell doing that as a pass protector, and he's still very, very good. And then as a run blocker, again, I know down to down the lines run game wasn't as good, but so many of their pop runs. Sure, it's because Gibbs can erase angles and all that, but it's because Pene Sewell can clear one or two guys completely out of like the Giants run on the touchdown in overtime. He just immediately flies to the second level and clears the guy out of space and Gibbs is able to take off like he does that all the time.

35:29He's a unique weapon on the goal line. Like it is still to me like until proven otherwise. And so long as Lane Johnson is missing games like it's it's still penesible. That's pretty much where I did it as well. I did like the Bulls. The fact the Bulls argument of like why does this offense work? It's because the offensive line protects the quarterback incredibly well. Quinn Miners and Garrett Bowles are an enormous piece of why the Broncos are as good as they are. and it feels like they get lost in the shuffle a lot. I think that offensive line ecosystem that they've created there is incredibly impressive.

35:59Like how much Mike McGlinchey has improved in pass protection. It's just little things like that. I watched the Broncos-Texans game back this morning, and I was mainly watching Bulls, and he was just handling Daniil Hunter in a way that you shouldn't be able to. But then you look over and you're like, Mike McGlinchey, you're doing the thing too, man. Like it is a really good offensive line. Their left guard has been hurt for a good chunk of the year. We haven't even noticed that. Lloyd Cushenberry left in free agency two years ago. Luke Wattenberg steps in. They don't really miss a beat. Their ability to get the best out of players at that position since Zach Streif has gotten there has been incredibly impressive, and Bowles is a good reflection of that.

36:38I will say this is a tough choice, and if the voters just decided to make it a Trent Williams lifetime achievement thing. He should be in the conversation. He's still playing in an extremely high-run. He's had a very good year. not what you associate Trent Williams with, but he's still had a very good year. If he won it, A, because he's been good, and B, because he's going to the Hall of Fame, and this is the first time we're doing this award, I wouldn't be mad at that either. He was on my short list. Laramie Tunsil was incredible in pass protection this year. He gave up six quick pressures on the season per next-gen stats.

37:11Andrew Thomas, we mentioned. Aaron Brewer, absolutely. The way that they weaponized Aaron Brewer in the run game this year in Miami for a run game that was so much better than it had any right to be. Like, what he's doing in the run game at center, other than peak Jason Kelsey over the last five years, there are not a lot of players being asked to do more for their team in the run game specifically than Aaron Brewer was for the Dolphins this year. I landed on Sewell because he's still an elite pass protector. 6.3 % one-on-one quick pressure rate this year, which was eighth among all tackles, and he's the best run-blocking tackle in the league, him and Trent Williams.

37:47I want to when you combine those two things like I think in a world where Lane Johnson missed this chunk of time You can make a serious case that Penny Sewell was the best offensive lineman in the league I think that's and it reminds me of what I said about Puka and JSN where I'm like I would take Penny Sewell over Garrett Bowles if I were drafting these players But we think about what happened this season and where we are heading into the playoffs It's not everything, but I do think that matters if the margins are close. Let's get to our next one here This one is, again, it was a coin flip for me.

38:17I think you can go a bunch of different directions. Assistant coach of the year. Derek, why don't you kick us off here? Who was your assistant coach of the year in 2025? This might be me just taking my preseason pick, but I had Vance Joseph. Because in my mind, the three best defenses in the league this year were Houston, Seattle, and Denver. The other two have head coaches who are calling the plays and really doing a lot of their work for the defense. That's Matt Burke calls the plays in Houston. That is worth mentioning. Okay. That is still feels like D 'Amico. Assigned a lot of it to D 'Amico.

38:48It still feels like D 'Amico's defense. When your head coach is a defensive guy and he was the play caller previously, it muddies the water. Because there have been times like that with the Andy Reid offense where it's like different guys are calling plays, but like it still feels like Andy Reid's offense. Yes. And also with the Texans specifically, and I'm sure we'll talk about this for our preview. The Texans don't do anything on defense. That's the other thing. Which like, yeah, I love them for it. But like, it's a player's defense. Obviously, it's discounting like what goes into the reason.

39:19The coaching points are good. And like, I think I love Matt Burke. I think he's done a really good job. I think D 'Amico has done a really good job. But it's a different consideration than a lot of the other defensive coaching jobs that we're digging into this season. Yeah, exactly. So when I watch the Broncos, like, I think part of it with the Broncos is that they actually have done more than you ascribe to this defense. They are not like this lineup and play man coverage defense in the way that people think. They're not. They're really good when they do it. And they're still like sixth in the league in man coverage.

39:48But it's not like they're fighting with Jim Schwartz at one or two where they're like running it 45 percent of the time or anything like that. They really are a little bit more of a zone defense. They bring a lot of really interesting pressures. I think the way that they can manipulate the back is good. They use their linebackers in terms of those guys to me are not great, pure coverage guys, but they do a good job of popping them off the line of scrimmage in ways that are going to make them useful. And so I think Vance Joseph has done a really, really good job of getting the most out of a really good team.

40:14And like, I know they have Patrick Sertan and I know the front is great. But again, the linebackers can be up and down in coverage. And a lot of their DBs, even just outside of Patrick Sertan, like you can get them in coverage sometimes. Like it's the fact that they've still been that good of a pass defense. It's pretty incredible to me. He was on my short list. I have six defensive coordinators that I think you could make a real case for. It's amazing how the offensive candidates kind of dropped off as the season went. Well, there's just all the best offenses in the league and a good majority of the best coordinated and constructed offenses in the league.

40:48It's offensive calling or it's play calling offensive head coaches. And we talked about Seattle's offense downturning over the second half of the season. I think Quinn Kubiak deserves mention in this conversation. He deserves mention. But I didn't pick him to win. I think there are two different things when it comes to offensive coaching, in my opinion. There's plan and there's execution. What is your identity as an offense and how do all the pieces fit together structurally? How are you trying to dictate the game based on that structure? I think the Seahawks have done an incredible job in that.

41:17Like, we're going to get you in heavy bodies. We're going to understand. Even like that chunk run that Kenneth Walker had against the Niners last week where they're in a nub look and they get him one-on-one with the corner. Like, they do things structurally that put their players in really good positions. And I think Klinklubiak has done a great job. Execution is play calling, feel, sequencing. I think he's done a good job with that. Like, I think he's been excellent this year on both fronts. I don't think he's been as good as the defensive guys. And the other offensive guy that I would mention that I think has done a really, really good job is Josh McDaniels.

41:49I don't think he's done a good enough job to win this award because his quarterback is one of the two candidates for MVP and I think has gotten them out of a lot of jams as the season has gone. It's a little bit hard to like give both of them equal credit. in that sense. I think McDaniels has done a very good job. I think... Like, good hire, but we don't have to necessarily put him in this... If I'm going to reward someone in that group, it's probably going to be Drake May. So the defensive guys I had were Vance Joseph, Chris Shula, Burke, Brian Flores. I had seven defensive guys. And then my top three.

42:18But before I do that, I want to know who won for you. So I thought about Vance Joseph, and I actually... I thought about Vic Fangio really hard, especially considering... He was number three for me. Considering everything Philly's defense has done to keep them close to having a shot to repeat. In a year where they turn over all that personnel, where they have serious questions at the outside cornerback spot, it's a talented unit. It's not an overwhelmingly talented unit the way that it was last year. I still didn't choose him. And I was looking through this, and it's most of the same names that you just said.

42:51And I landed on the guy who basically went from worst to first with mostly the same cast of characters that his team had last year. And that would be Jags, DC, Anthony Campanelli. That is also my pick. Let's go. Weird where I'm not the Jags guy. I was really expecting you to be the Jags guy. I'm glad this happened. I'm surprised. Eight of the Jaguars' top 10 leaders in defensive snaps this year and 10 of their top 15 were on the team last year. Eric Murray and Jordan Lewis have been great signings. and Andrew Wingard's healthier this year. That's worth mentioning. That's it. That's it. Travis Hunter didn't play.

43:33It's the same guys. And yet, this year, the Jags jumped from 31st in defensive DVOA to 6th. They jumped from 28th in defensive success rate and 31st in EPA per play to 10th in defensive success rate and 3rd in EPA per play. They were dead last in takeaways last year with nine, and they had 31 this year. Their jump in interceptions went from six to 22. It's the largest single season jump from last year in the league. Them and the Bears had double digit improvement in getting interceptions. They allowed a 10.8 % explosive play rate, which was third best in the league, along with Seattle tied for third best in the league.

44:20Excuse me, Seattle, Denver and Green Bay. The only defenses that were as good at limiting explosives as Jacksonville. And then the really important one, they jumped from 28th and scoring defense to eighth. They did all of that with basically the same guys like middle of the road, nickel and safety signings typically aren't enough to reverse something like that. It's hurt now. Yeah. And he missed time during the course of the year as well. And I believe Eric Murray did, too. like to do this with basically the same stuff that was unplayable last year is freaking incredible I'm 100 % with you I'm glad you mentioned a lot of like the personnel things because it absolutely plays into it with me we were Derek and I were talking before we started recording as I told him that was my choice and if you're who did the most with the least I think that he has a very strong argument for that the what they're getting out of Monteric Brown right now Antonio Johnson right now, Jerrion Jones coming in because Jordan Lewis is hurt.

45:15It is seriously so impressive. And the reason that, and by the way, my runner up, and again, this is a coin flip for me, was Jesse Minter, who I want to talk about in a second. Jesse Minter is really, really good at his job. But the thing that sets it apart for Campanile to me, they're fifth in weight of defensive DVOA. They're 24th in pressure rate when bringing four. 24th. You know how hard that is? You know how hard it is to build? Especially when you have good, talented edges like the Jags do. Trayvon Walker missed some time this year. And Trayvon Walker is not a pure pass rusher. Trayvon Walker is a very good, useful football player.

45:51They do not have an elite pass rush or even a good pass rush. All these other teams that we're talking about, Vance Joseph, Chris Shula, Vic Fangio, they have good players up front. They have like very good to elite four-man pass rushes. The Seahawks are like that. The Jags aren't that. And they have built a borderline top five defense without that, which is incredibly difficult to do. And we've talked or kind of danced around it all year of how they've done that. When you watch them just play very generic zone coverages, where Campanile comes from, similar to what the Packers have done over the last couple of years, a lot of too high structure.

46:30And we're just going to rotate down and we're going to play some cover three. When you watch them do that, they're extremely good at it. like the way that the coaching points are the way they squeeze things in zone coverage so the bones and the nuts and bolts of it are excellent and then you watch what they're doing when things get a little bit funkier and I just think that the layers he's built into the defense the numbers that really jump out to me are what they do when they blitz so they blitz at like a 30 percent rate which is about league average a little bit more but what they're doing behind it they essentially there are only five teams in the or seven teams in the NFL, I think, with a zone blitz rate of 45 to 55%.

47:11So you're essentially split man zone when you blitz. There are only seven of those. They're almost dead even. When you look at the coverages they play while blitzing, it's almost equal, like 25 to 30 % cover one, cover three and two high with like 12 and a half percent cover zero built in there. And they'll use the same pressures with different coverages behind it. Like it's just, it's such a multifaceted thing and they need to generate and manufacture some of that because the format pass rush isn't good. And so to me, the details, the complexity combined with how good it is when it's simple, quote unquote, it's, it's incredible.

47:48Like he has done a really, really, really good job this year. And they've done a good job of like, when they drop their ends, they actually do a good job of like making sure they're getting hands on guys and guys know that like, okay, if I drop off, because sometimes teams will like drop an end and they're kind of just like head spinning. They don't really know where they're supposed to be. There was a play against Denver where Josh Heinz Allen actually drops off the field kind of into the left flat. And he immediately whips around and like smacks the tight end, like two or three yards short of the six.

48:13I'm like, man, if your defensive end, who's your best pass rusher can make coverage plays like that. Clearly the coaching is good. And I would say the one part of this that didn't get mentioned that like, if I'm going to make the case for Anthony Campanile, Devin Lloyd being a good player now is - I meant to bring that up. Thank you. Every single guy on the defense is the best version of himself. And that means Devin Lloyd is playing at the level that Devin Lloyd is playing at. And it's not just that he's better. The want to is a lot higher. He was a player that I think in previous seasons, you saw flashes in coverage.

48:41He could kind of run a little bit outside of the perimeter and stuff like that. Was never a guy who wanted to come down and hit a guard, hit a lead block, any of that. He will take back space now. And it's actually really impressive to watch that he's gone from that, given what he was the first few years of his career. It's been remarkable. I, again, wanted to mention, it's a coin flip for me. Jesse Minter has done an incredible job. The Chargers are 31st in spending on defense. 31st. Which I complained a lot about going into the season. I was going to say, that sounds right with how I know they handled their offseason.

49:12The Rams are 32nd, but the Rams are more talented than the Chargers. Yeah, the Rams have had all these draft picks. They paid on a ridiculous amount of picks immediately. Exactly. But when you look at what Jesse Minter has done, And you said something in the offseason that I think people took the wrong way when you said that watching Jesse Minter last year, it was like watching a first year defensive coordinator. And it's like with the how kind of simple and it was all they did when they pressured was three deep, three under fire zones. That was it. And it's like, I get it. Like you were building a foundation of what they want the defense to be.

49:42And I think what has been so cool this year is watching them build on top of that. on early downs, they're still doing a lot of the same stuff they used to do. They have these big-ass defensive tackles where it's Caldwell, Tyer Tartt. They've done a great job of finding the right personnel to be good enough against the run in these super light bodies and play all this shell and just kind of almost entice offenses to play the way they want to. We're going to try to run the ball downhill on you. That's what we're going to do. And that is the right way to attack the Chargers, but they're good enough at stopping it that by building your entire game plan around that, you're playing into their hands in the way they want you to.

50:22And so on early downs, they're doing all that stuff that they used to. And they're very good at, again, kind of coaxing the game out of opposing offenses that they want. When they get into third down now, the layers to his third down plan, they don't blitz a lot, but they also don't bring four guys that are just lined up like that. The amount of, the cover zero percentage this year per next gen is like the same as it was last year for the Chargers, but the variations off of it is wild. The way that they're bringing a non-traditional for who they're dropping out, watching them play against scrambling quarterbacks and how they accounted for those scrambling quarterbacks when they played, go watch the third down snaps for the Chargers against the Eagles and watch the layers of the game plan from Jesse Minter.

51:10Like he is an exceptional defensive football coach. And so for me, that's the reason that him and Campanile were one, too, just because we talk about doing more with less. And I think there have been phenomenal defensive coaching performances all over the league. Those guys do not have as much talent as some of these other teams have. And the results have been akin to a lot of the other great defenses in the NFL. Yeah. Jesse Mentor is incredibly, I wanted him to show a little bit more iteration, especially on the back end and some of their coverages, mixing it up. And he absolutely did. And also in terms of like getting the best out of some of your players, Tuli Tuli Polotu had 13 sacks this year, which like he's been huge for them.

51:49I thought he would be, I thought he was like a nice, if he's your number three, maybe like a low end two, you're pretty happy. He's, he might be better than that. Like he's been really good for them. I know the Pro Bowl is kind of diminished in value, but I was surprised and happy to see him make the Pro Bowl because Chargers players sometimes get snubbed in those sorts of situations, but well-deserved. The tiebreaker for me that eventually made me choose Campanile over Jesse Minter is that even if guys like Khalil Mack have been banged up at some points over the year, for the most part, Jesse Minter is working with the deck he thought he would be going into the year.

52:22Campanile is not. Like not having Travis Hunter, like it just, it's a different set of players even than I think they thought it would be. And they still have been like a borderline top five. And Mincer got to build from last year. Campanile, this is all like, he had to figure this out on the fly. All right, we got three more. We're going to take our last quick break and then come back and chat a little executive of the year.

52:46All right, executive of the year. This is a tough one, but not for normal reasons for me. We can dig into why. Like the reason I almost didn't give it to my winner isn't because of the job he did. It's just because of the way I normally hand out these awards. But I'm curious where you went with this. This is one of the easiest ones that I did. And like I tried to cast a wide net and think about as many angles as possible for a lot of these. But this is one where I, I'll be honest, I didn't consider that many other avenues other than just saying congratulations, John Schneider of the Seattle Seahawks.

53:23Did you also pick John Schneider? I also picked John Schneider. Okay, so did I. The only reason that I even had a slight bit of pause is because Mike McDonald is my coach of the year and giving it to both of them is hard. I could see why you feel that way. The reason I'm willing to separate it is the stuff on that, I can still give Schneider the award without even really giving him that much credit for the signings or drafts on defense. Like them doing what they did with the offense and making the bet where I... That is a phenomenal point that you could give Schneider this award without even factoring, like take, take Eminwari off the board.

54:00You could even take, even though this like signings are front office things, but you could take the tank Lawrence signing off the board. If it was just the plan to trade Gino and replace him with Darnold and move on from DK and like all of that stuff, everything about retooling the offense and being right about it would be enough for me. And then if you just give them a little bit of the credit for the defensive side of the equation, I think it's a no-brainer. For me, I think it's a combination of things. There's enough stuff that happened on the offense that pushes it over the top for me, but also there's a difference between player acquisition and proper schematic deployment, right?

54:36And Mike McDonald is doing an incredible job with the players, but to me, I think you do need the Emanwari thing in order to get this over the top, in my opinion, because of how he did it. So I had forgotten this. Do you remember this? No, I do not remember this. Emanwari was picked after a trade-up using the pick that DK Metcalf netted them. They got pick 52 in the DK trade from the Steelers, and they traded up with the Titans to pick Nick Emonwari. So when I saw that and remembered that's what happened, I was like, oh, this is over. There's no reason to even look at what other teams did. They traded a third-round pick to do it, but they still had a third-round pick because they got one in the Geno trip.

55:16And so that was always the argument. And we don't have to do the Geno thing again. And part of me is going to be always sad that we're not going to remember how good Gino was over his last couple years in Seattle because of how good the team is now and how bad Gino was this season. Okay, you're just writing off Gino's chapter in Minneapolis. Just calm down. I'd still take a dice roll on Gino. Believe me on that. I think that, but the argument for why this could always work out was it was multifaceted. One, you're getting younger. two if the contract's going to be the same and you're getting a third round pick for geno and you don't have to give up any capital for sam that was a very good argument as to why this was still worth it and i always from the first moment i i said last season they should trade dk mcf like i always wanted them to do that and so all of those moves and the way that it all kind of came together he deserves a ton of credit for that grace abel in the first round uh this is a really small one but them signing Josh Jones and free agency.

56:17I liked that at the time because I just think that too many teams are not urgent enough with making sure they have the right level of tackle depth. Charles Cross hasn't played in how many weeks? And Abe Lucas is hurt all the time. Yeah. He's been healthy this year. Right. But I mean, like generally he's been a guy who's been struggling. But this year Charles Cross has missed at least two. I think more than that. Yeah. And we, how much have we really talked about it? because Josh Jones is a decent swing tackle. And so I think there's so many different things that John Schneider did. And again, I think for me, it's hard.

56:50Like last year, for example, I'm not given, or maybe it was two years ago, I'm not given Nick Sirianni coach of the year and Howie Roseman executive of the year at the same time. Like that's not happening. But with the Seahawks specifically, because of what Mike McDonald was adding to the defensive side, play in and play out, combined with so many other things that I think are his purview, compared to the player acquisition purview, that's why I'm comfortable doing both from the same team in a way I don't think I typically would be. So let's do coach of the year then. I had Mike McDonald. I also had Mike McDonald.

57:24And here's, it kind of sells itself. I mean, they're the one seed. The defense is incredible. I don't think it sells itself. I think that's more of a controversial thought than most people would. Well, that's because we're so used to being like, oh, who was the team who was dog shit, who's decent now? And I don't think we need to do that. With the sell for Mike McDonald, is that he calls the plays on defense by DVOA. This team is better than the Legion of Boom. And I think you could make a very strong case that the Legion of Boom had four players who were better than anyone Seattle has right now.

57:52The two safeties, Richard Sherman and Bobby Wagner. Better than all of the players at the Seahawks. And I know they have some good players, like Witherspoon is great. Leonard Williams is really good. They have a bunch of really good players. They have a lot of very good players, but they don't have like the field tilters that the Legion of Boom, it felt like they had. And so for him to bring a unit like that and coach them all up so well, have such a clear vision for all these guys and make them not only a suffocating defense against the middling and whatever offense is like to give, especially in that first game, like Sean McVay and the Rams trouble to give the Niners.

58:26They had one bad game. It was on a short week. Yeah, it was on a short week. Yeah, exactly. Like they just, I, what they've done this year from top to bottom has been incredible. And you've seen in season development from some of these guys, Nick Emmanwari has been better. Tai Okada has been better than he was in like week four and five. Drake Thomas has really come along this year. Like even the young guys have really given them something that I just, it's been phenomenal to watch. He has built a historically good, perfect modern defense, and he is the person at the center of that. He deserves an unbelievable amount of credit for that.

58:57And when we think about him compared to Mike Vrabel, Liam Cohen, all that stuff, Ben Johnson even, I think people are going to look at how bad those teams were last year and then try to project how much the coaches mattered in changing that. The Bears, the Patriots, and the Seahawks had the same preseason over-under. That's it. It was all eight and a half. That's wild. And the Seahawks are one of the best teams in the history of DVOA and the one seed in a much, much tougher conference in the best division in football. So the total team success, what his side of the ball has done overall, the fact that the special teams is the best and is one of the best another great show complete they're just complete from top to bottom that is also the it's the purview of a defensive head coordinator and a head coach combined you can make an argument that he's been the best at both of those things him deciding to move on from ryan grubb after last year and hiring clint kubiak is a game-changing type of decision that i think he deserves a ton of credit for as well and so i I just think for me, every single bit of that, that's why Mike McDonald is the winner, even though I think there are guys who are absolutely deserving.

1:00:08Just under that, we can talk about them in a second. I'm going to, I will go down on this ship. I will stand on this island. I don't expect this to happen. And Vrabel deserves mention. Ben Johnson deserves mention. If I was betting on it, I would bet on Mike McDonald to win. That's everything y 'all just said, plus the fact that he's the head coach of a one seed that had low preseason expectations. The other 13 teams in this year's NFL playoffs averaged 85 snaps from their QB2 this year. The Houston Texans and the Green Bay Packers leaned on their backup quarterbacks more than everybody else. But Malik Willis and Davis Mills combined to play fewer snaps than Mac Jones did for the San Francisco 49ers.

1:00:55And that is just the tip of the iceberg of the bullshit that Kyle Shanahan had to wade through in this 2025 season. There are 11 teams in the league right now with$70 million or more in average per year salary on their reserve lists and unavailable to them. Nine of those 11 teams are a combined 46 and 107. One of those is the Packers who were locked into the seventh seed two weeks ahead of time and relative to expectation disappointed. The last one is San Francisco, who just finished 12-5 and was a couple of plays away from being the one seed in the NFC. How much of that is on defense? A defense that is actively bad?

1:01:38Your two best players at the very least. But how much of that lost value is on defense? I don't have the breakdown between offense and defense. That to me is like, Kyle Shanahan absolutely should be on the short list. Do you not think I have their snaps pulled up in front of me Fred Warner played 30 % Of the year and Nick Bosa Came in at like 11 % of the year Like your Field tilting players that could have turned This into a competent Defense missed basically The entire season I'm not short changing them from the defense Being bad I don't think it's their fault that the defense Is bad I'm just saying that a lot of the value They've lost is not the reason that the team is good.

1:02:21I would argue... They haven't overcome that to make the team what it is. That's my argument. George Kittle got hurt in the season opener and missed five weeks. This is his lowest snap share since 2020. Brandon Iyuk, we talked forever about when they get Brandon Iyuk back, he is gone. Yeah, he's the player they've missed. He is absolutely gone. And Pearsall has missed a huge chunk of the season. Ricky Pearsall officially missed half of the season. Trent Williams missed two games, including the decider. And look, I get it. That's football. I'm not making excuses for the Niners, but Trent Williams missed the game that could have potentially given them the week off in the playoffs.

1:02:57Oh, by the way, they lost Tatum Bethune during that game. And D winners is questionable for the trip to Philadelphia. It just keeps coming with these guys. They've been patching this thing together with duct tape all year, including on the offensive side of the ball. And San Francisco finished second in offensive DVOA, which is the second best number of Kyle Shanahan's entire tenure, only trailing 2023 when they were the Avengers. They were second in the league in DVOA, second in offensive success rate, seventh in EPA per play, tenth in scoring. and on the defensive side of the ball, I'll point out as well.

1:03:34He got Robert Sala back into the fold, which as bad as San Francisco's defense has been, Robert Sala helped them achieve a competency. It's probably better than it should be. Yes, exactly. And I do think the Kyle Shanahan thing is impressive in the sense that they can't run the ball very well because the offensive line is just not good. And you can say, oh, maybe that's Kyle. It's not Kyle's fault. Like the offensive line is not put together. It's partially Kyle's fault. I don't know. You don't think Kyle's picking the offensive lineman? Oh, OK. In that sense, I guess. but like the talent right now is not very good.

1:04:02Yeah, I mean, he's culpable on what the offensive line looks like. I guess you could say like, he's coming home to roost for sure. You could say like over multiple years, that is his fault. But I just mean like, it's the offensive line talent. He has made a conscious choice for what the offensive line looks like. It's not a scheme issue when I look at it the run game this year. And then also teams know they have to throw. I would like to. Because they're down, like the defense is giving up 30 points a game. An argument that I've heard that has annoyed me over the last couple of weeks too. And look, I guess Seattle beat them and got the one seed.

1:04:28So who cares? Good for the Seahawks. If Mike McDonald wins this award like I expect him to, it's well-deserved. But people will point out the Niners played a fourth-place schedule and the Seahawks played a second-place schedule. That sounds really cool. It's three games, and this is what the three games were. The Niners played the Browns, Giants, two bottom feeders. The Seahawks played the Commanders and the Vikings with Max Brosmer. I'd say that's pretty similar. And then the Niners beat the Bears and the Seahawks beat the Steelers. Like, that's the difference in what you're talking about between these two teams.

1:04:59The schedules were not all that different. And for Kyle Shanahan to have this mash unit, a half dozen plays away from being the NFC's one seed is f***ing incredible. And I won't let it go. I don't care if I'm the only one that feels that way. I won't let it go. I think everything that you said is totally well-founded. He's done an amazing job this year. I think it's probably, whether this should be the answer or not, Mike McDonald's group snuffed out Kyle Shanahan's number two offense by DVO. If it comes down to that, if it comes down to that, that might be it. That might be enough for me. If they scored like 20 points in that game and won, like we might be talking more about that.

1:05:36If it comes down to that and that's, like I said, if Mike McDonald wins this award, I'm not going to be mad about it. And they did win that game in San Francisco. I get it. But over the totality of the year, I gave up on the Niners as a viable thing on like October 5th. And they were playing for the one seed on January 3rd or whatever it was. It's incredible. I just want to be very clear. You never have to try to convince me of what Kyle Shanahan is. That never has to happen. He, this year proved to me that he is like, he's just inevitable. He is personnel proof. And I was a, like, I was a purdy doubter and maybe a Niners doubter for a while because I was like, okay, let's see you without nine all pros.

1:06:20And the result was still pretty damn good, all things considered. I honestly think you could make an argument that what he did last year was more impressive. without McCaffrey and with how banged up they were on offense. I'm not trying to make that argument now, but what I'm saying is what Kyle Shanahan has done on the offensive side of the ball for the last two seasons has been incredibly impressive. And that was after he had a historically good offense in 2023. We were talking about it when we did a live show about John Harbaugh leaving Baltimore. And Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, Like if I was, if you're talking about coaches where you might opt to keep them over an all pro caliber quarterback, that that's the whole list right there.

1:07:03And like a year like this from Kyle Shanahan just solidifies that for me. The other guy that I think if I had to do like a top three and I think Vrabel has done a good job, but their schedule is horrendous. Yeah. And he has done an objectively good job. Their schedule is very, very bad. And I think that should play into it. And I would argue the like the Patriots had so many. And I mean, you could argue you could talk about whether like Elliott Wolfe and the guys in New England deserve more mention for executive of the year because Stefan Diggs was so good relative to what people thought. And the defense wasn't amazing, but the money that you spent on defense provided tangible results.

1:07:39I just think Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson, for that matter, like to go back to what you said, Robert, they were working with the deck of cards they thought they were going to have. and Kyle Shanahan was rolling into work at 6 a.m. every Monday saying like, all right, who's out for the year now? Okay, we'll get it right by Saturday. We have to. You have to mention Ben Johnson's name and what he's done this year. And I think that Liam Cohen, the combination of what Liam Cohen has done with that offense and the fact that Liam Cohen is the person who hired the guy that both of us just said is the assistant coach of the year, that plays into his resume and his case for this award.

1:08:14So it's a strong year. It is a very strong year. I think all of those guys have good cases for sure. All right, let's get to it. Let's get to the headliner here. MVP of the 2025 NFL season. I don't know your answer, so I'm curious where you're starting here, Dave. I wanted, I'll just be honest. I wanted Matthew Stafford to win this award because he's been one of my favorite players forever and he is a joy to watch. And yeah, it's like a last remaining investment from like my childhood or my early years watching the NFL because he got drafted when I was still in college. It was the first combine I ever went to.

1:08:56I was a junior in college. It was 2009. Wow. I wanted Matthew Stafford to win this award, but when I sat down with it and looked at everything, I was like, if we're being fair about this and removing the fact that he's one of my favorite players, I think it should be Drake May. I landed in a very, very similar place. That's exactly where I landed. Like I, I do think that part of the reason, so I did end up going with May. There was part of me that felt a little bit of reservation. And part of it was, I do still think like the old test of like fifth, fourth quarter, I'm down two minutes. I'm a little bit more scared of Matthew Stafford.

1:09:31That's not the conversation though. I understand that's not the MVP. I do think part of it with the MVP, the narrative argument for May, which I think is totally acceptable, is that when these young quarterbacks have their moment, we're going to remember that forever. with the Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, when Josh Allen broke out. Like we remember when those guys really have their moment and have their season. And Drake may absolutely have that. I do think when I remember certain games this year and certain plays and certain throws, I do come to Matthew Stafford. Like the game that he played against Houston to start the year, incredible what he did against that defense.

1:10:01Game that he played against Philly, the both games against Seattle, I thought were just like, it's cinema. Like he just, I think I'm going to remember more of what this season felt like. And again, that's maybe not the way that you vote for the MVP, and that's not even the way I ultimately voted. But I do think in 10 years, some of the Matthew Stafford moments will be, they will remain in my head a little bit more than the Drake May stuff. This is a legacy-defining season for Matthew Stafford for me in a lot of ways. I think it solidifies the player that Matthew Stafford has been. And for me, it's funny, because I think a lot of people would say that chapter starts when he gets traded to the Rams.

1:10:42and it actually doesn't for me. This version of Matthew Stafford for me starts in 2019. It's when Daryl Bevel got hired to be the offensive coordinator for the Lions. And because if you look at Matthew Stafford's career, it's funny because I'm sure a lot of people would love to look back and they'll just be like, well, Matthew Stafford's always been like this. You guys just didn't appreciate it. That's not true. And it's not Matthew Stafford's fault. The offenses that Matthew Stafford played in for a good chunk of his career in Detroit were some of the most underneath horizontal offenses in the NFL over that stretch.

1:11:12There were years where Matthew Stafford finished 31st in the NFL in average depth of target ahead of only Alex Smith playing for the Chiefs. That's a real thing that happened. That's what the Lions offense used to feel like. Darryl Bevel got there in 2019. And in 2019 and 2020, they started running this more vertical down the field offense. And watching Matthew Stafford play that version of football was like, oh shit, like this is incredible. And then he gets traded to the Rams and then you see him get to become what he has been over the last couple years. And I think in a lot of ways, this is the apex of that.

1:11:48And it's because of what Puka Nakua is, it's because of having Devontae Adams, and it's because, I think he's been like this for a while, Stafford has, there are zero f***s given. He is like at a place in his career where he's just like, I'm going to try anything. And aesthetically, it has made him my favorite quarterback in the league to watch. He's going to finish second team all pro this year. And I think this season for me is what I think Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Famer based on what this season is. This is like the tipping point season for me, whether he wins the MVP or not. Because whether he wins the MVP or not doesn't change the complexion of what he was this year in the NFL.

1:12:22It doesn't change what you just watched. Exactly. You saw him be that player, whether you give him the award or not. I hope you're right. That's my opinion on it. I trust and respect your opinion about these sorts of things very, very much. which I don't trust the entirety of the football viewing public or the voting block for that matter. And I don't know that Matthew Stafford needs another deep playoff run to be a Hall of Famer, but I think that would go a long way towards cementing it if he doesn't win this MVP. I think that's right. But I would look at it if I were a voter. And his resume already when it comes to the volume, when it comes to, again, what he's been qualitatively over the last few years, the fact that he won a Super Bowl.

1:13:03I think he's already started to stack it up. Even if he doesn't win the MVP this year and he's second team All-Pro, Matthew Stafford will have been one of the best two quarterbacks in the NFL in a year where Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen were in their primes. That's a pretty good point in the rest of the way. Send that over to his PR people and make sure they're aware of it. That's a good one. I think what Matthew Stafford has done this year, here's how I would frame it. What Matthew Stafford was asked to do within the Rams offense, you could not do better than Matthew Stafford did.

1:13:37You couldn't do it better. Yes, I agree. And that turned into the best offense in football. Yes, but. So that's the argument. I think there are a lot of other things that help build it into the best offense in football. They have the second best running game in the league by success rate. It's been dominant this year. Like their downhill running game has been awesome this season. They have, the guy that we just said, is the coach that you would pick over all of the other coaches if you were starting from scratch as an offensive schemer specifically. They have the best offensive architect and play caller in the NFL in charge of this thing.

1:14:11They have the guy that we would pick as offensive player of the year as one of those receivers. So while I think what he was asked to do, he did it as well as he possibly could have, I do not think he was asked to do as much over the course of the season as Drake May was. And we haven't even started digging into Drake May's case, but there are some numbers when I started looking at it that are just like, okay. Okay. Here, there's a couple. So first of all, Drake May created 37 first downs with his legs this year to Matthew Stafford's zero. Just throwing that out there. Drake May leads the league in both EPA per dropback and total EPA.

1:14:49These are the two stats that ultimately were, okay, I don't know how you don't do this. Drake made the season per next-gen stats at a 40.8 % success rate on plays where he was pressured. 40.8%. That's not only the best in the league this year. That is the third best mark in a single season since 2018. The reason that I picked 2018 is that the two players ahead of him, if Drake May was third, were Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Josh Allen in 2020. The guy right behind him in fourth is Lamar Jackson in 2023. So the seasons where a player has been as good when pressured as Drake May was this year. The only guys around him are the alien MVP quarterbacks from the last five years.

1:15:34And here's the other one that, again, similar company. When we talk about challenging situations as a quarterback, I think Matthew Stafford has done a lot of his damage this year. First down, early down, play action. Again, what he was asked to do, he did it as well as you possibly could have. In scenarios where you have a 50 % or more passing percentage probability, according to the next gen. So third downs, just plays where you don't really have anything on the table. Drake May created 121 total EPA this season. That is the sixth most in the next gen stats era. The guys ahead of him are 2018 Patrick Mahomes, 2020 Aaron Rodgers, 2022 Patrick Mahomes, 2024 Lamar Jackson, and 2016 Aaron Rodgers.

1:16:20Are those all MVPs except for Lamar? No, Lamar did win. All MVPs or first team all pros except for 2024 Lamar. What a stupid... Okay, okay. Rodgers is the only one who didn't get there and that was the 2016 Matt Ryan year. Matt Ryan's success rate in those scenarios is the best of the next gen era. Stafford, so Drake May, 50 % pass probability or higher, has 121 EPA. Matthew Stafford had 51. No one else in the league had more than 70. Wow. So wait, where did that rank Stafford this year? Oh, I think he was third or fourth. So still pretty good, but that puts Drake May in a pretty different area.

1:17:03And I will say, I know a lot of people are going to bring up the schedule stuff. When you are that good, the schedule stuff doesn't matter. You can make the schedule argument if a guy has a season where you feel like maybe he's the seventh best quarterback in the league. And it's a nice, oh, cool, sneaky Pro Bowl. No, this was like he dominated every single team that he played against, especially after his season long numbers are still really good. If you take it from week four and on, which is after the Steelers game, Drake May had a 0.32 EPA per drop back. The only other two players above 0.2 are Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford.

1:17:39Like he was so clear of everybody else, especially after that Steelers game. Drake May and Matthew Stafford also played six common opponents. Drake May played better, turned the ball over a fewer times and was 6-0 against those teams. Matthew Stafford was 3-3. I really liked what Barnwell wrote this week. And he always does the work for me, which is why I love him. He did a test where he averaged out like the quality of opposing past defenses specifically. If you do it with QBR, May's average opponent ranked 18.6 out of 32 defenses in the QBR allowed. Stafford's was 18.4. It was essentially the same.

1:18:13Wow. For past defenses specifically. And to go back to your point, and I think it's the right point, and this isn't directed at either of you two sickos or anybody probably listening to this show, but we joked about it earlier this year. The Patriots were doomed to 12 p.m. 15 out of 17 times this year. And so, I mean, Matthew Stafford's incredible. He's my favorite quarterback to watch in the league right now, but he's playing in so many more visible games where there's so many more opportunities to make a throw and have Puka make a catch where you're like, holy shit, that was the play of the week.

1:18:44Meanwhile, Drake May already did all his stuff at 2.25 Central Time with eight other games on. But think about the one game he had on Thursday night against the Giants. Oh, yeah, yeah. The Giants on Thursday night. The touchdowns he throws in that game are f***ing crazy. I think, oh, oh, I'm blending our shows. We're doing, we're doing this. We're recording this before we go do our live show where we're going to talk about some of this stuff. But the throw that he had in the Tampa Bay game to Kyle Williams, it went for 72 yards. It was mostly yak, but like the throw to get it there. Kyle Williams is coming across and guys coming off right tackle and is like barreling into him.

1:19:25And he layers this piss missile right over Kyle Williams shoulders. I haven't decided if it's my throw of the year, but it's just the most insane thing. And he did stuff like that. If not every week, then with great regularity. I do think what really made May's season special to me, especially for a young player, I think. Stafford's like five best throws are just stuff where it's like maybe him and Josh Allen like it's nobody. He's one of the most talented pure throwers in the football to ever walk planet Earth. Yeah it is like some of the stuff that he's even like you said willing to try is completely insane and then to have the talent to do it consistently but with Drake May when you watch him down to down and this isn't even to diminish the decision maker that Matthew Stafford is Drake May's shot selection almost in the way that I've talked about Patrick Mahomes before like he's so accurate because the shot selection is incredible.

1:20:14He led the league in success rate. Yes, he knows what throws to make all of the time, both from a, I know this guy's open, or I know I can fit this window, and then like, when do I throw a little bit of a change up here? When do I add more on it? When do I just rip the shit out of this? When do I check the ball down? Exactly. The decision-making was so much better this year than I expected it to be. Even if you were a believer, I don't think you could have anticipated the down-to-down decision-making to be as well-honed as it already is, And then because I've said this all throughout the year, you know, the crazy stuff's going to happen.

1:20:47He's uber talented. The crazy stuff is going to happen. Some of the throws he made, again, talking about shit that happens at noon or it doesn't matter. Some of the throws he made in the Saints game, climbing the pocket and pushing the ball vertically down the field that 13 people watched other than people catching it on red zone. He had the long touchdown he had in that game. The all 22 had to zoom like two miles out to get the ball in frame because it was like such a moonshot. incredible. This reminds me of last year, and a lot of people have said that this week, this is the final kind of note I'll put on it.

1:21:19Just because you're picking one guy does not mean you're diminishing the other guy. I hope that the celebration that we just had of Matthew Stafford is enough proof that I think Matthew Stafford has had a beautiful, remarkable football season. I'll do you one better because, and I would vote for Drake May. I'm firmly in favor of him winning this, but looking back through this, it is incredible how much crazy stuff happened to the Rams to keep them from being like a 15-2 team where Matthew Stafford would be the slam dunk MVP. Is it weird that I don't give a shit about what their records were? I don't, I think that's commendable.

1:21:56I think it's... I don't care. I felt like they both played really good ball when they needed to. I don't care. I think if Matthew Stafford was the quarterback of the one seed Rams, I think he's winning this award. I think so too. That's why I bring it up. That's more about why other people would pick Matt Bessler. Of course. I think you're right though. I do think you're right. You two distinguished scholarly gentlemen. It's not directed at y 'all. I'm talking, but this is the world we live in though. And I think if the Rams were 15 and two, Matthew Stafford's winning this award and they have a 44 yard game winner blocked at the buzzer by the Eagles.

1:22:26Kyron Williams fumbles on the inch line in that wild Thursday nighter against the Niners. You have three turnovers against the Panthers, an in-zone interception, a red zone sack fumble, and a pick six in a game you lose by three. The second Seahawks game falls apart in the final eight minutes. Rashid Shahid... He should have played better defense in that second Seahawks game. Makes the only... Rashid Shahid's punt return makes that trade worthwhile for John Schneider, by the way. If it got you the one seed, you do that every time. And then you have another three-turnover game against the Falcons with three Hail Mary-type plays improbably almost happening.

1:23:05Like the margin for error where the Rams are potentially the one seed is, it would hurt my heart to think about if I were Sean McVay and I bet it does knowing him. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back tomorrow with a two-part wildcard weekend preview. We're going to be doing the Saturday games and then we're going to come back with the Sunday and Monday games on two separate shows. Both of those will be available to you at the same time overnight. right Beller? Isn't that the plan? Yeah, roughly. It'll be, you'll have them. They'll be ready for you. You'll be able to listen to them all weekend long.

1:23:40Although going back to the Saturday one on Sunday might be a little silly. Yes. So, but those will both be available to you guys pretty much within the rhythm of how they typically would be. And then just a heads up, we're going to be doing live recap Saturday and Sunday. And we've got snow game potentially on Saturday here between the Bears and the Packers. Like everything that could make me just an unhinged mess sitting here at this desk at 10.30 p.m. on Saturday. I hope you guys are ready for that. For now, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon.