Falcons run all over Packers for first win of season

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3:01Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Man, that was a doozy of a Thursday night game in a way that I don't think anybody could have expected. The Atlanta Falcons break out in a big way, monster games from B. John Robinson and Drake London after that offense was DOA through the first two weeks of Cooper Rush and a fantastic debut from Michael Penix. If you're a Michael Penix believer, we dug into all the positives for the Falcons, but just as many negatives for the Packers. There is a chance this thing gets really ugly in Green Bay based on the state of the offensive line, some other areas of that roster.

3:37Robert Mays: Dug into all of that with Derek Klassen on this recap. Let's get to it right now.

3:52Robert Mays: I'd like to start this conversation by apologizing to the Atlanta Falcons. We were making jokes about the Falcons being in primetime a bunch over the next few weeks, how I can't believe we have three straight Falcons games in primetime. I want to sincerely apologize because that team, and especially that offense with Michael Penick's back, that's worthy of primetime viewing. They did not deserve the derision that they received from us on this on this program over the last few days as we as we stared down those three primetime games. That's where I want to begin this conversation with a very real mea culpa.

4:29Dave Helman: Yeah, not if they're going to be that every week. And I don't know if they will, but at least that team looked way more competitive than they had. I mean, obviously, the Steelers game was close, but neither of those teams looked serious that week, I would say. and like I think too part of the thing with Michael Penix he looked totally solid this week I just think even over these next three primetime games it was like man he hasn't really played football in a while like is he gonna like even if you thought the offense might look better when he's back eventually was it really gonna look good his first week or two back and like the the first sign we got of it is like even if he wasn't exceptional in any way it's like the offense can be an offense now and Drake London can dunk on people Bajon Robinson can be incredible like the offense works and that's enough when you have these skill players you look at both of these sides in this

5:14Robert Mays: game and it is such a stark reminder of how much it matters to have a real nfl quarterback even if you change out nothing else having a guy that even if flawed we can talk about pennix even if flawed is a real nfl quarterback what it does for the functionality of your offense but also just you think the guys in that locker room know that they have a shot with michael pennix that they didn't have with Cooper Rush. You think they know that? You think that bled into what the rest of the team felt like today? Absolutely. And on the Packers side of it, which we'll dig into, it's impossible to win games with non-NFL quarterbacks, which at this point, Cooper Rush is not, right?

5:50Robert Mays: It's also impossible to win games with non-NFL offensive lines. Those are the two things that we learned today on the Falcons and Packers sides of this. We'll get to the Packers in a second though. I want to talk about the Falcons offense. B. John is incredible. Dude. He's incredible. There are two things in watching that game that really stuck with me as I was watching him over the course of those four quarters. One, I, watching him is like a nerve-wracking experience for me because when he's doing some of the jump cuts and just the way that he's changing direction and everything else, I just expect his legs to explode on like every other touch that he has.

6:29Robert Mays: It doesn't seem right. I don't, I do not have the experience of worrying that a guy is going to get hurt with no prior injury history or actual no rational reason to believe that more often than when I'm watching B. John Robinson.

6:43Dave Helman: Well, and you know what he reminds me of too? We were actually talking about this with JSN. The way he runs is like he's speed skating sometimes. Like when he's like, especially on those outside zone runs and he turns the corner, he gets, or it's like he's turning the corner as like an edge rusher. Like there's nobody else who runs the way that he does. And I think he's so fascinating to me because I think he has such rare like flexibility and bend and in a way that like you just don't see from any other runner. But then the vision is like.

7:12Robert Mays: And I think patience, the timing, the pace, the rhythm, all of it is just, it's like melodic. It's beautiful to watch. I love it so much.

7:21Dave Helman: I think in my mind, Le 'Veon Bell is the best I've ever seen at that. But Bijan Robinson has that and has more to him than I think even Le 'Veon Bell did in some other ways. Like he's just, again, he's a little bit more flexible. He definitely does. He's more exclusive. It's unbelievable. Totally.

7:36Robert Mays: And like the change of direction, it's almost like if you combined, I'm trying to do like a, it's the David Montgomery meme from that game at Iowa State, which is all the best of all time. But it's actually true with Bijan. The two guys that come to mind when it comes to some of the, the change of direction stuff isn't as violent as this player, but stick with me for a second. It's like if you combine some elements of LaShawn McCoy with some elements of Le 'Veon Bell, but he also has more like straight line giddy up than either of those guys. And he also is a better receiver than those guys. What a special player.

8:09Robert Mays: And tonight was just such an incredible example of that. The Falcons finished with a 64 % rushing success rate in this game. 64 % running the ball for 242 yards.

8:22Dave Helman: based on what it felt like watching.

8:24Robert Mays: You know, it feels low to the point where I was keeping track of it in my mind. And when I watched them throw a backwards pass to Brian Robinson that got blown up, I was like, there's one of them. That's the reason it won't be higher. That's really good. That's really good. The other prevailing thought that I had while watching Bajan, there is no greater compliment you can pay an NFL player in 2026 than them breathing life into Al Michaels.

8:52Dave Helman: Yeah, he looked like he wanted to watch the game, which you don't get a lot of those anymore.

8:57Robert Mays: Legitimately excited at some of the stuff that Bajon was doing. There is no greater compliment for a skilled position player or a player of any kind in 2026 than having Al show that sort of vivacity on a Thursday night at this stage of his career. And that's exactly what we were getting from him and Bajon today. They were getting up for all of it.

9:17Dave Helman: Like, I think even on a couple of the Bajan runs, they were like, look at Charlie Werner throwing this block and stuff like that. I'm like, they don't give a shit about that. If Bajan's not ripping off like the most incredible run that you've ever seen, who did he did play a great game, by the way, Charlie Werner. He's he's an important piece for like popping all these zone runs for them. Like it's they have like this is why. And again, they're not going to score 30 whatever points every single week. But this is why when we did like the offensive surrounding cast show, like I kind of liked what they had.

9:46Dave Helman: I still again at the offensive line. I don't know if they'll be this good every week, but like that play calling staff. Some of the screens that they were calling were perfect. Like it just they've got enough here.

9:55Robert Mays: If Penn X is going to play well, it was one of those situations. And again, it's just and let's I'll be honest with you. I did not watch every down of the Cooper Rush Falcons over the first two weeks. I was not doing a lot of studying about the Cooper Rush Falcons. And so from a distance and we can be honest with people. You can only go back and rewatch so much in any given week. Like you're going to catch up with every team over the course of the year. But the first two weeks, I didn't feel compelled to really go back and deep dive into the Cooper Rush Falcons. When I was watching the Steelers defense, I was watching the Steelers defense.

10:26Robert Mays: And so there was a moment where two weeks into the season, even with Cooper Rush, there was kind of a voice in the back of my head where I was like, man, is this going to be a disaster? Like that would just be surprising to me. Like I think with this level of skill position talent with an offensive line that even if they're it's a flawed group like Jake Matthews is really long in the teeth. I think that overall the pass blocking just quality top to bottom is probably not it's probably like average at best. Even with that that clears the bar compared to what these guys are working with in Cleveland.

10:59Robert Mays: And so and I actually was really excited to see what Tommy Reese as a play caller which I think we're we haven't brought that up enough like he's calling plays. Like Tommy Reese has his finger on the button with this offense in a way that he never has when they were in Cleveland, because when he's been the play caller in Cleveland, Kevin has given it to him at points during the season for reasons that you can understand. It's like, this is a lost year. I'm invested in this guy long-term. Let's give him some opportunities. All of these things in combination, I wanted to see it. And I did think that it could be at least interesting.

11:31Robert Mays: And so to look what they did, it looked like the way they did over the first two weeks. I was like, man, is this going to be like an unwatchable football team for the entire year. I am so glad that that is not the case. Like I'm so glad we actually get to enjoy these players and the Falcons can be at the very least a compelling offense for us to watch weekend and week out. Cause I thought they would be at the very least coming into the year, even if the defense is flawed.

11:54Dave Helman: Exactly. And like, I, again, I really do think that they've got something here. There there's such an interesting case too. Cause again, the offensive line is not spectacular. And I think B. John Robinson, like by virtue of how he plays and reads, it just makes them a lot better than they are. Zero doubt. Absolutely. It's a great thing to bring up. It's their offense is so cool because it's it's really just two star players having insane gravity and making everything else better. And like that's a little bit of a fragile build. I don't know if I love that, but the fact that it can work like this when it works like this, it's literally just B.

12:29Dave Helman: John Robinson popping 20 yards runs. And then the next play, they're throwing like go balls to Drake London and he's just dunking on the corner and throwing to the ground. Like it's it's an unbelievably cool offense to watch when it works.

12:40Robert Mays: It's probably discounting Sam Laporta at this even early in his career. But I don't think it's all that dissimilar to without the Lions offense when they were really good early, early in that tenure with Ben Johnson, where it was the running game. It was Amon Ra and then they were kind of piecing a lot of the other spots together. And I was because I was going to say, can you remember an offense that's like that where it's just a real difference making running back plus one of these receivers and you can cobble together a very good, very interesting offense out of it? I don't think there are a lot of examples, but I think the early Lions are kind of adjacent to that at the very least.

13:14Dave Helman: I'm struggling to think of ones like I'm sure there have been stretches with the Niners where it's like just CMC and Kittle. But like that feels like cheating because Shanahan is. But even that's not real. And because they have other guys, like that's what I'm saying.

13:26Robert Mays: It was either a uke for a stretch or it was Debo for a stretch. And so I can't, I'm sure there are examples. It's 1035 PM on a Thursday night. I'm sure people will throw them in the comments. If there's anything that does remind you of this, let us know, because I do, when I watch this, it does feel a little bit different. Let's talk about Pettix for a second. Again, this is a, the waves crashing over you sort of game, like just the Packers were drowning. And we'll talk about that in a minute. but I really did like some of the stuff I saw from him. And it was fun to see him access the middle of the field a little bit more often on some of those in breakers.

13:59Robert Mays: Like I, he is, I said this during the game and I truly firmly believe it. And somebody else said Cam Ward, which is another good candidate for this. Michael Penix is number one on my list of, it would be cool if he was good quarterbacks. Cause he just throws the shit out of the ball.

14:15Dave Helman: He has a cannon.

14:16Robert Mays: Like I would love if Michael Penix was good at football because I do think that his play style and what in his just bundle of traits would be really fun to watch if it all did come together. And so I'm not saying that after one game, I am so happy one week into the Michael Penix experience with Tommy Reese and Kevin Stefanski in this offense. My first reaction is I can't wait to watch it again. I want to see more leaving that game with this thought to me feels like an absolute win for the first glimpse that we got a Penix this season.

14:46Dave Helman: I came away more excited to watch the offense down the stretch than I thought I might be. Because, again, I don't think this game was spectacular. But the fact that this was his first game in primetime, he's coming off of the injuries. He has not played a game in this offense specifically. The fact that he came out and I thought played like a pretty solid game, especially after the first quarter, like the first quarter was tough. But again, like you, he hasn't played football in a while. And in this offense, he hasn't played football.

15:12Robert Mays: I'm throwing. Here's the stat. I was because the first quarter, because remember, he was like one of five to start the the game in the final three quarters of this game michael penix was 16 of 18 for 234 yards he was pretty good and like honestly it's pretty damn good by the way 11 pressure rate

15:32Dave Helman: that's what i was gonna say like 11 and that's i will say too that actually there's a little bit of the bonix thing here where like yes the pass protection was really good and the pressure rate is low that's partly because he gets the ball out some of that is by design that's just some of the stuff that they do some of that is the screen time to throw in those final three quarters

15:51Robert Mays: 2.12 per next gen that's crazy the the ball comes out and even some of and obviously he did make a

15:57Dave Helman: couple of the middle field throws he hit london on a dig at one point but even some of the vertical throws he's making he's not holding the ball that long like the one that he throws where london is just scot-free where he runs that little speed out for a second then shoots up the field and he's just wide open because cse is jumping on the out route balls out immediately and even on the one where London dunks on the guy down the right side. It's not like he's holding the ball for that long, but he's still, it's one of those things where I think at sometimes I'm like, ah, he's just chucking it up to the guy, but it's like, Hey, you have Drake London.

16:27Dave Helman: Just do that. You should be doing that.

16:30Robert Mays: And I will say what he deserves credit for to be seeing it that quickly and be making decisions that quickly. This is game one of this offense. And he didn't have 11 on 11 reps all throughout training camp like that. The first quarter was ugly. The final three quarters, that's about as good as you can want this to look if you're a Falcons fan, given what Michael Penix is offseason looked like. I'm excited to see more of it.

16:53Dave Helman: And I think, too, more than even just like how some of the results came down at the end, I'm glad he just didn't buckle after the first quarter. Like, it's your first game. You're probably hyped up. You've had so many injuries to this point. You're thinking you're this. This is now another good shot to prove that I can do something you throw the pick over the middle that is like there's nothing else holding that safety he's going to drive on that every time it's a really tough play to have made and then they were just like he was getting heated up more in the first quarter over the over the last three quarters I think Green Bay wasn't able to get home as much but like there was a weak overload pressure that they sent that got to him there was another play where Van Ness just like smoked uh Jake Matthews around the edge and like I was like okay there enough things have happened that this could snowball away from you if you weren't up for the task, but he kind of settled in after that and I thought he played fairly well.

17:42Robert Mays: I did joke about this during the game. It was inevitable that my high school would eventually produce the greatest football player of all time. Lucas Van Ness is becoming that. He's on track. I didn't quite get there. I fell like one or two steps short, but I think Lucas Van Ness is, he could finally make the prophecy come true if he keeps playing at this level because he is like the one lone bright spot for the Packers in this game and him and Matthew Golden. It's like, man, Matthew Golden, Lucas Van Ness. Good thing we got something out of those two first round picks. Let's not talk about anything else.

18:12Dave Helman: And you know what's funny? Even Golden, I thought, was incredibly frustrating in this game. Like he had some great plays, especially towards the end. But like Jordan Love kind of under through a corner route and he didn't want to go and get it. And then there was one play. I think it was a third down where Golden is streaking down the field and Love throws it as if he was going to run the corner. And so I don't know whose fault that is, but I was like, that seems like weird ball location. There was just like a number of weird mishaps with all of the Packers receivers today.

18:38Robert Mays: It was kind of a game you would expect from Matthew Golden based on what Matthew Golden was as a prospect, where there are some easy plays that just don't get made. And then his two big catches in this game, the first one, the ball tracking on that first play is insane. Yes. To go back over the other shoulder and catch that ball. And it's why, as a prospect, he reminded me a little bit of Stefan Diggs. Because that ball tracking is like, that's what Diggs really did well. And even at Texas, Golden was a fantastic ball tracker with the ball in the air. And then he makes a ridiculous play on the touchdown.

19:10Robert Mays: That ball is on his back hip coming 100 miles an hour. And he makes that catch. And then there are a couple other ones that hit him in the hands. One was a contested catch on the right sideline. But it very much was what I might expect from the Matthew Golden experience after watching him at Texas. And I liked him as a prospect.

19:27Dave Helman: I'm glad you said Diggs, though, because I think my thought from this game actually was because you had some of the ups, downs with him you remember early on when digs was like when he was in minnesota it was not as pass heavy of offenses it was kind of weird he was splitting reps with adam theelin and it was kind of like he needed to go to an offense that was going to be super pass heavy and just let the volatility be what it was going to be and he was going to have some insane plays it almost feels like matthew golden would be like better in an offense that was trying to do that rather than what the packers are obviously in this game they threw the ball a shit ton but like that's what

19:59Robert Mays: say oh buddy this might be the year this might be the year where you're getting that from the

20:04Dave Helman: Packers well and that's why we got some of the good plays from him and you got like that is probably what it would look like in a more like pass heavy offense I don't know if the Packers necessarily want to be living in that world but I mean like you said this year and we can start to talk about it they might have to with the way that this thing is constructed so what is that world what do you think this is I really don't know how you can run a functional offense doing what they're doing like I guess they're going to have to lean into just more like screens and yak stuff and if they really want to like it's funny I think for a while now people have they look at the Jordan Love EPA numbers and the high success rates and they're like why would you not let him throw more and it's like well part of the reason they never wanted to do that is they are protecting themselves not necessarily from him and some of his proclivities to be a little bit aggressive but from the offensive line having to be stuck in so many pure pass scenarios.

20:58Dave Helman: And I think you see in a game like this where they cannot run the ball at all. I mean, they had what, like 20 rushing yards in this game. If that you are never going to if that's what you're going to do, defenses are never going to be scared that you're going to run. They're going to tee off all the time and it's going to be on these backup guards. It's going to be on a left tackle who has not played left tackle in the NFL before. It's going to be on a right tackle who's also a backup. and you're just going to end up in a situation where Jordan Love is top of a three-step drop and he's already got somebody in his face all the time yeah it's it's gonna just gonna be really

21:29Robert Mays: hard to have a functional offense with this version of the offensive line I just don't know how you do it and Barnwell made a really good comparison on the midweek show that really got my gears turning about this Packers season and I it's gonna take did you did you watch Widows Bay I mean, you know, you don't engage. I have not yet, but we're tracking on it. We're going to get there. Ask me again in a couple months. I don't want to give it away, but there's like a very classic just slasher movie trope where the killer just refuses to die. And one of the characters just goes so far beyond what you might reasonably expect to make sure that this thing is dead.

22:06Robert Mays: That's how I feel about the Green Bay Packers. And so when Barnwell this week was like, ah, it's done, there's no way, this is real. The offense is broken. I think my response is always, one, let's wait a tick. Two, I want to see one more week with them not playing in a rainstorm to see how much we should actually panic about this. And the answer is, we should panic about this. We absolutely should panic about this. And I think there's two things happening here. You did a very good job this summer of pointing out the potential fragility of the offensive line and what that could mean for the Packers.

22:41Robert Mays: I still gave them benefit of the doubt because over time I think they've earned it. The ecosystem, Stenovich, all of the ways that they've gotten by without a lead offensive lineman and still produce lead offense. But I think even I would be willing to acknowledge that it was a narrow path to pulling that off. That was when they were healthy. Right. Now they're all banged up. Yes. But this was kind of my concern. This is so far past it. But Bakobowe and Banks were hurt in training camp. So it's not as if those guys had clean bills of health. I don't know if you could have seen this sort of outcome, but I think the downside case of this being a group that you really had to cobble together that wasn't even starting from a place of strength, I don't think was that far.

23:22Robert Mays: It wasn't a remote possibility. That's what I would say.

23:25Dave Helman: Yeah. This game, I think even like the Flores game was obviously bad, but like, I think Flores is just on such an insane thing that he's doing right now that I was willing to kind of push that away. Like you said, the Jets game, rainstorm, their pass rush looks a lot better right now. It was the first game for some of these guys, like whatever this game, mid game. Yes. That's the other thing about the Jets game.

23:45Robert Mays: You got guys going out in and out mid game. That was also part of my rationale this week. I was like, eh, they got, it's a short week. So you don't have a full week of practice, but at least, you know, who the five guys are going to be.

23:54Dave Helman: Exactly. And so the fact that they got picked apart as bad as they did, that I think is really concerning to me. And you would, you would think for most of these guys, these are going to be the ones that they're going to be trying to play moving forward. Like Bacabale is out for the season. And so like, this is kind of where they're going to be stuck at. And so I'm just really concerned because like my thing with them was I think if they went into the season with the five guys they wanted healthy, like relatively healthy, I'm like, OK, I still think that this is a unit that has degraded over time.

24:21Dave Helman: But you can probably get away with this. But the fact that Banks, Bacabuele were already hurt going into the offseason and now Bacabuele is out for the season and the guards situation has gotten even worse because of some of the injuries that they've had to deal with there. now it's to the point where it's like you're just chipping away at this like five tiers from what it was you know two or three years ago and it's just really hard to see how it's going to get better and then the other thing I would say I had kind of the same concern about the cornerback room about in terms of like just giving up some explosive plays today is exactly what I was scared of is that Drake London can dunk on you and you have a young corner who's going to bite on stuff and is going to give a big place to him as well and I think that those guys looking as tough as they did.

25:02Dave Helman: Brandon Cease also missed a tackle on one of the big Bijon runs. Like it's this, the two units that give up the bad plays, offensive line and cornerback room are as bad or worse than I thought they would be for the Packers going into the season.

25:16Robert Mays: All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break. Football season has arrived and with the US Bank's Smartly Visa signature card, you earn an unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase, including at the stadium or at home watching on a brand new TV. Score big with unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase. Visit usbank.com slash smartlycard to learn more. The creditor and issuer of this card is U.S. Bank National Association, pursuant to a license from Visa USA, Inc. Some restrictions may apply. All right, as I sit here right now in the upper Midwest, it is still summer, but it is turning to fall.

25:49And that means that we're going to be turning over those wardrobes. Also putting away the summer clothes, breaking out the fall clothes, getting ready for those crisp, cool, lovely days. And guess what? Quince has got me covered with all the great fall staples that I want. Sweaters, jackets, long sleeve tees, whatever it might be, Quince has got it. Quince focuses on high quality wardrobe staples made with premium materials like 100 % Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, and merino wool. The styles are timeless, versatile, and designed to become the dependable pieces you reach for day after day.

26:21Their 100 % Mongolian cashmere sweaters start at just$60, giving you the softness and quality you'd expect from a luxury brand without the luxury price tag. Quince also makes premium pants, fitted tees and polos and breathable activewear. Quality basics designed to work across your wardrobe and hold up to everyday wear. Can't wait to break out my Quince sweaters. I've got a couple of them. Obviously had to put them away for the summer, but with fall and then winter behind it, it is the right time, the perfect time for those Quince sweaters. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com slash athletic football.

26:55Get free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. now available in Canada and the UK too. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E dot com slash athletic football.

27:08Hey everyone, it's Chris Guillebeau here, host of the Side Hustle School podcast. This episode is powered by AT &T Business. In my early days, I did some of my best work in parked cars or coffee shops. When I landed my first big contract, I realized I couldn't bet my future on a public connection that cuts out if someone turns on a blender. As a small business owner, you're already wearing at least 10 hats. You shouldn't have to be your own IT department as well. That's why I rely on AT &T Business. They keep your connectivity reliable so you have one less thing to worry about. Powered by AT &T Business, built to work.

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27:54Robert Mays: So I was looking at the numbers just because I was curious. And I think it's a good thing to point out. And like you said, those were the floor-creating units. And so those being the floor-creating units, that is how you find a really low floor as a team. And I think we are about to get to a place where we find out how low the floor is for the Packers. So I was curious about this. I was looking it up as you were talking because I was looking at the box score and I was kind of shocked at one of the numbers that I saw. I want to try to put it in perspective. So there have been what? So there are 32 teams that played 16 games last year.

28:31Robert Mays: So do the math on that. Plus two weeks of the NFL season. In terms of quick pressures allowed, Jordan Love in weeks one and three of this year is first and third in quick pressures allowed in a game over the last two seasons. There were 15 of them today. Against Flores, okay, right? That can happen.

28:51Dave Helman: Week one, he's blitzing at an 80 % rate when even he's never done that. Like, whatever. That one is whatever.

28:59Robert Mays: 15 quick pressures given up in this game by the Green Bay Packers offensive line. You can't function as an offense if that's what's happening. And I think the Falcons pass rush is better than we probably thought going into the year. Dorlis is showing some cool flashes. Dexter has been productive. That unit is better than what it would have looked like on paper going into the season. This is, what are you going to do with this? What am I supposed to do with this?

29:23Dave Helman: It's both things are true. I think that some of those those pass rush guys for the Falcons look good. Like, you know, Dexter had a handful of really impressive reps even last week against a much better Panthers offensive line, I think. And so those guys are looking better than we would have thought. But like before two months ago, nobody was thinking as these players like Dexter was just like move the way like nobody cared. Doorless was, I think, a kind of forgotten piece on this defense for a lot of people. And the fact that they are the ones that are giving up or attacking you in such a way that is giving up some of the most quick pressures, like you're just not going to function that way and like i know i'm going to sit here and sound like i'm being jordan loves lawyer and i don't think he played very well in this game like there were a handful of opportunities especially as the game went on he's crumbling but like who wouldn't snowballs man who wouldn't snowballs if we're going to give up 15 quick pressures to the atlanta falcons who isn't crumbling in that scenario that that's the only difference i have it's not that he played well it's just that like everyone is going to falter like that

30:20Robert Mays: it's an untenable situation for any quarterback. I'm exhausted of quarterback discourse this week. I'm not going to do this with Jordan Love. I'm just not going to do it. Let's wait a little while. And that's not that we shouldn't even do it. But I'm also just not going to do it, even if there would have been a decent reason for it. I think the conversation about the Packers, and I got off track before, but I was talking, Barnwell said on the midweek show this week, is this potentially the Packers 2022 Rams season? And here's why I think that is going to be an important distinction. If the answer is yes, then part of making that calculation is we think this is a blip in an otherwise really strong track record or an offensive coach and what he has been able to do year after year after year when the Packers have essentially been a top 10 offense every single year.

31:15Robert Mays: The same was true with the Rams. They had that one awful, awful season after the Super Bowl. Stafford missed half the year, but like you said, we just talked about it before we started recording. He was three and six before he even started, before he missed time. The offensive line, the bottom fell out. If the answer is yes, then you say, okay, whatever happens, the season happens. It hurts and stings even more because we don't have a first round pick, but it's something that we can live with. If the answer is no, and you think that this is not a blip, and you think this is the continuation and just kind of natural endpoint for something that has been happening, then we're having a different conversation.

31:54Robert Mays: And my instinct is to say it's more the former than the latter, but depending on how bad and ugly this thing gets, I mean, you listen to the crowd tonight. I mean, they are, it is going to get ugly there if this continues. I don't know how you handle that as an organization.

32:12Dave Helman: I think to me the distinction not even just about like how the individual seasons went with you know the 22 Rams or whatever the Sean McVay by that point had taken the Rams to two Super Bowls and won one they just won it they had just won it the year before you've got a little bit of equity to have a five win season the Packers have been largely successful and like consistent with Matt LaFleur like they have not had losing seasons they've gone to the playoffs I think almost every single season obviously had the MVP stretch with Aaron Rodgers like they've been very good they've not been two and one Super Bowls and reached those highs where you're willing to be like ah we can eat a year and hope the next year is going to be better and I think that to me is where the calculus really changes with this because honestly I probably agree that I would lean more towards that this is a blip in Matt LaFleur's tenure and that he can and will be better than this it's just that there is something about having seen what the highs were for Sean McVay that it was easier to be like, ah, it's a blip.

33:07Dave Helman: It'll be fine. With Matt LaFleur, even if I think he can and will be good, it's like, well, what am I rebuying into? Going to the divisional round again? I just don't know if that's as appealing.

33:17Robert Mays: I agree with that. And I also think when you look at the roster, the roster is the part of it that to me does feel like we've been moving in a negative direction for a little while. The state of the offensive line coming into the season again was already feeling pretty fragile. We talked about it so much this off season where there were so many guys and for some of them it's worked, right? Like Golden looks good. Lucas Van Ness looks good. For some of it, it worked. But how many this has to happen things were the case for the Packers this off season where we just never talked about them like that.

33:51Robert Mays: They had so many contingencies built into the roster. They had depth. They had luxuries. They just didn't have any of that and they don't have any of that. And you're seeing what those results look like. I don't know where I land with it. I'm always a little bit more cautious with stuff like this. I'm prone to giving guys the benefit of the doubt, whether Matt LaFleur deserves it. I think this is probably the first time where I'm really willing to hear arguments that he doesn't. But I think three weeks into the year, it's probably too early to make any sort of determination like that, but it's going to get uglier before it gets better.

34:22Robert Mays: If the offensive line doesn't get better. The one complicating factor in this that I think it's at least interesting to think about, and I don't know how their inner workings totally work and who's going to make these decisions and who would be at the forefront of this or at the center of this. A lot of times coaches get fired because owners get embarrassed. There is no owner. There is no person who really has to wear this if it gets really ugly for the Packers. And whether that plays into the decision, I don't know. but I do think it's a circumstance. It's a factor that's probably at least worth considering when you compare this to the dynamics at play for a lot of other NFL teams.

35:01Dave Helman: And I think they did just extend him, which is like also another weird.

35:04Robert Mays: They just did. Next year is the first year of his extension.

35:07Dave Helman: It's just a weird situation they found themselves in where this is the one year that it's like falling out for Matt LaFleur.

35:14Robert Mays: For that reason. And because again, it's, it's a unique circumstance with the way the organization works. I would call them for the most part pretty conservative. I mean, think about, we've had two coaches of that team since I was like in high school. Again, it just doesn't, and they've had a lot of success and that's the reason for it. But I just don't expect them to make a irrational kind of flippant decision about this. But if it keeps going at this rate, maybe it becomes a little bit less irrational. Maybe it becomes a little bit less frivolous.

35:45Dave Helman: Yeah, it depends. it's like seven and ten probably going to move on or probably just like be fine with it let him go next year if it's like a four and 13 situation that i think is where it starts to get harder to live with and i don't know if it'll be that bad but like the offensive line is going to be that every week maybe and then you're handing that pick away oh my god that's the other part and i believe it's to the jets if they're if they're bad it's to the jets yes i think if they're good it goes

36:12Robert Mays: to the Cowboys. It's what the Jets get. I think whatever is the better pick between the Cowboys and the Packers. Yes. Yeah. However that works. Yeah. And so, man, it's that's that's the toughest part of seasons like this when it all just kind of falls apart. Is that not having that pick at the end of it? The Rams didn't have that. Did the Rams have their first round pick in 2022? Oh, shit. Probably not. What if they ever had one? That might have been the year where they might have had it. I mean, I want to figure that out really quick because that'd be one more point of this comparison. It's hard to keep track of when they had them.

36:47Dave Helman: I mean, would they have drafted Jared Burst in 2023? 23, 24, 24. Yeah, wait, maybe that actually kind of makes sense.

36:53Robert Mays: No, so this was, I was wondering because when the golf trade happened, I wasn't sure if the 2023 first round pick was part of it. Okay. In 2023, yes, the 2023 first round pick. So the Rams gave that to the Lions and then the Lions traded that to the Cardinals. That was the Paris Johnson pick. And then the Lions traded down and drafted Jameer Gibbs. So yeah, if you want to take it one step further, the 2023 Rams also did not have their first round pick as part of this process. But like you said, it stings a little bit less when you have the Super Bowl. When you got the trophy, it stings a little bit less.

37:27Robert Mays: There's nothing to ease the pain of what this could potentially turn into if you were the Packers. It's been a while. It is a tough place to be. A tough, tough place to be. Now they know how the other half lives if this thing goes south. All right. That is all we've got for today. If you're listening to this on Friday, our week three preview should be available in your feeds and on YouTube. Really fun show. Dug into a bunch of the matchups from week three. Really enjoyed all those conversations. If you were watching this on YouTube, please encourage you guys to like and subscribe to the channel.

38:03Robert Mays: Ton of YouTube-specific stuff that we're putting on this year. Dave is now has a YouTube franchise that we're doing. called This Rocked. He broke down Hezekiah Massas this week. Derek is diving deep on Brian Flores on how it happened. And then I have a video on Dalton Kincaid and the Bills offense coming a little bit later. So if you are not subscribed to the YouTube channel, that is the only place that you can get all of the video first stuff that we were doing. Encourage you to do that. For now, that is all we've got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

39:07Thank you. and more time focusing on what actually matters. Powered by AT &T Business, built to work. Get today at business.att.com.

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