Half-baked takes for the 2026 season

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0:49Robert Mays: Visit Pura.com to bring the season home. Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. One of my favorite shows of the offseason today. We're about a month away from the season actually kicking off. We don't have to really attach ourselves to any of the things we're saying quite yet. These predictions are not written in pen, not set in stone, any of that. Each offseason, as we get into August, we like to do a show where we talk about some things that we're ruminating on. They're marinating, but they're not quite there yet. These are half-baked takes that we have about the upcoming season.

1:26Robert Mays: So that's what we did today. Me, Dave, and Derek talked about some stuff that the voice has been in the back of our heads. We've been thinking about it a little bit. It's been rattling around in there, but we're not quite sure we're all the way there with any of these thoughts. One of my favorite shows we do each offseason. Let's get to it. Me, Dave, and Derek on our half-baked takes right now.

1:58Robert Mays: this has become one of my favorite shows that we do every summer Dave this is another one where you were a presence on this show before you were a member of our staff and so we're just running back all the early preview shows that Dave used to do before he worked for the athletic football

2:13Derrik Klassen: show we're doing some half-baked takes today i i'll take that as a badge of honor because it is yeah throwing throwing shit at the wall before anything is real is i'll take that as a specialty that's fine and this is one of my favorite shows to do because you can be as serious and predictive as you want to be or you can try to get real highfalutin with it which i always try to have at least one really out there one we'll see if i can live up to it this year this i actually find

2:43Dave Helman: one of the hardest shows for me to do every year just because like I find it hard to be like do I kind of believe this but not really like I feel like I'm too often a very black and white thinker

2:52Robert Mays: that I struggle sometimes with the half baked you say so many things with your chest that living in the gray is not necessarily the most for me who is a habitual fence sitter this is the easiest show of all time most of my takes are half baked and so I'm built for this world I know that this is

3:09Dave Helman: one where like but it's a good exercise for me I've got to like step out and be like okay not everything can be a hundred or zero take. I've got to find some middle grounds.

3:16Derrik Klassen: I agree. Like Derek has no problem. Just very plainly saying this guy's great. This guy's trash. Whereas I, I do struggle with that and I'll admit it. And it's something I'm always trying to get better at. And, but I have no problem being like, we should play games on the moon. Let's do it.

3:34Robert Mays: I have one take that say we should play games on the moon that I'm actually pretty excited about. It's one of the more galaxy brain ones I've done since we started doing this episode. Before we get into the takes, a little bit of news that broke just before we started recording. Adam Schefter decided to ruin my day. Kobe Bryant of the Chicago Bears goes down in practice today, carted off. The prognosis is 8 to 10 weeks. He's got a whole litany of lower body things. There's a fracture in there somewhere. There's a bone bruise. There's a hyperextended knee. Many people over the course, and I think it's probably because I was at Jaguars practice today.

4:11Robert Mays: so I just saw the Kobe Bryant news and then had to go about my life and do other things I think a lot of Bears fans were sitting in the worst case scenario all morning so the idea that he's only going to miss eight to ten weeks I think there's been a little bit of cope like oh well you know he'll be back six weeks into the season whatever I'm not there yet this is a disaster like the entire argument that you could make for the Bears defense being better this year was the secondary being healthier and a better unit, more range, more speed. All right. Well, the two things that have happened so far is that Kyler Gordon doesn't have working soft tissue in the bottom half of his body.

4:49Robert Mays: And now Kobe Bryant is going to miss two months in a new defense with a bunch of new teammates. He might be back in week five or six, but he won't have practice. Now you have a ramp-up period where he's not himself maybe until halfway through the season. Derek, can you talk me down off the ledge even a little bit? or is this how I should be feeling right now?

5:08Dave Helman: Not really. I mean, the hope that you would have is that I know that he's going to miss a lot of practice time and he's going to miss the first month or so of the season. The hope is that the Bears make the playoffs and by the time then, he's had three months of being able to work into it. But not to spoil our programming, we're recording DNA Changers tomorrow. I had Kobe Bryant on that list because... Great. So if anything, I'm pushing you off the ledge here. But part of it is what you said. it's not just that the secondary was going to be better. If we remember Dennis Allen's defense back when he was with the Saints, they were one of the first teams that was just running a shit ton of quarters.

5:42Dave Helman: And obviously you bring in Kobe Bryant, who comes from a system where that's a lot of what they run. And the Bears didn't really do a lot of it last year. Part of that too is like they didn't really have a linebacker in coverage. I think they felt that they were great about playing like that middle hook. But I do think that Bryant would have allowed them to play a little bit more in that world.

5:58Robert Mays: I also think that they're loading the box last year. They're playing a lot of single because they couldn't defend the run not doing it so any sort of versatility any sort of kind of chameleon like approach on the back end theoretically a player like kobe bryant could give you now it's just going to be harder to do so obviously there has been worse injury news over the course of the panthers are dealing with multiple season ending injuries they're having to sort through eight to ten weeks is not the worst thing in the world but for a guy that like you were about to say tomorrow was supposed to change the complexion of the defense this is not a good note on which to start a very important year for a Bears defense that had its issues last

6:32Derrik Klassen: season and just to the point that you made at the beginning Robert that is the issue with basing your offseason optimism on if everything goes great this could be pretty good like if no shit goes wrong the secondary could be awesome well there's a 100 chance of shit going wrong and I mean I guess You could call it like it's a break for the Bears that this isn't a seizing ending injury, because when you see the reports that Kobe Bryant, you know, he's emotional on the ground after getting hurt and they use the car to take him to the locker room. I mean, your brain automatically goes to done for the year when you see that.

7:10Derrik Klassen: So this is actually a good scenario considering the initial news. And it's still going to put the Bears behind the eight ball, which was the concern to begin with. You just need you need too close to a perfect scenario for this to go well when this was your strategy going in.

7:25Robert Mays: Yeah, the argument was that Kobe Bryant and Kyler Gordon and a healthier Jalen Johnson would make us feel like a different group. I'm not sure if Jalen Jones and Cam Lewis are getting us there quite as fast. That's my concern right now. All right, let's get into some takes. Derek, because this is hard for you, I'm going to let you kick us off. I'm going to let you wade into this. what is your number one or first half-baked take you have on the eve of the 2026 season

7:53Dave Helman: yeah one that i've really started to come around on and part of it is because of the chatter i think on the offensive side of the ball i'm starting to think we're going to look up and this this is a take that is mostly positive but has a tinge of negative to it i think we're going to look up in december and think the ravens would be the best team in the nfl if they had max crosby instead of trey andrickson because i'm buying what's going on with the offense i'm everything that these guys are saying about Declan Doyle they're like holy shit this guy's a genius and we obviously haven't seen it yet but I trust Lamar and like a lot of those guys have been there for a long time and so I think them seeing this sort of shake up I kind of buy it it's also like anytime Lamar Jackson's offensive line is anything other than an utter disaster he's an MVP and I do think that they have probably fixed themselves from that and then defensively you can get me there with almost every single part of this like obviously Minter is good Dave and I actually talked about their secondary um on the show that we recorded last week and obviously they have a ton of talent there i the only worry i really have is like can the edges defend the run that the way the way that they want to like trey hendrickson does not really do that mike green does not really do that uh they drafted zion young who i like but he's a rookie i just feel like max would solve every problem that i have with this defense and they would be an elite team i don't even think this is wrong i

9:08Robert Mays: I just think it's hilarious that it's August 3rd and Derek is sitting there like ruminating on the quality of edge, the quality of run defending edge depth on the Baltimore Ravens and whether that's going to be the thing that holds them back from winning the Super Bowl.

9:22Dave Helman: That's the world we live in now with defense. That's the world we live in. And I did want to paint. I don't want to just sit here and say that, like, oh, Trey Henderson doesn't defend the run and Max is good at it. There are like insane numbers to it. First of all, last season, which was deemed mostly a down year for Max Crosby, he led the NFL in tackles for loss on run plays with 17. He had like five more than anybody else in the NFL. Trey Hendricks in on 97 rushes had zero, by the way. And according to Sports Info Solution, they have a stat called points above replacement, which is basically a catch all for a lot of the metric that they do.

9:54Dave Helman: Max Crosby on run plays had 26.3 points above replacement. It was five more than any other defender in the NFL up front. Like he is kind of a run defense upon himself. Trey Hendrickson, the last two years that he qualified, which was 23 and 24, he was bottom 10. Like it's not just that it's like good over like average. This is like elite compared to like kind of a problem when he's out there.

10:19Derrik Klassen: So are you just looking for the source of how they're going to upset you this year, Derek? Is that what you're just trying to get out in front of it? I mean, a little bit.

10:27Dave Helman: And I want to be clear, like this, even with this issue, they could still be like the ninth best defense in the league. And the offense is what I think they're going to be. And they win 12 games. I'm just saying that, like, the difference between, like, in the mix for the top of the AFC versus, like, they actually could run away with it would be a player of the quality of Max Crosby, I think.

10:46Robert Mays: can I make a devil's advocate argument and say that some combination of Tavius Robinson and Zion Young if you cobble them together we can get like an amalgamation of one solid big run defending end to go opposite Trey Hendrickson and Mike Green and in the aggregate we have enough of that skill set within the defense to get us by to get us by a hundred percent like especially because I really

11:12Dave Helman: did like Zion Young a lot coming out of college. And I don't think that like necessarily both of the edges need to be like superstar run defenders like last year in mentors defense. It's not like Odafe Owe was doing a whole lot for them in that department either. So like that you can clearly get really good defense out of this. I think this is partly a take that is just it's it's driven in like I think if the Ravens really want to have the comeback they want it would they could be like the third or fourth best defense if they get had a player like Max Crosby. And I think it's also just like I think I know that he's coming like he's gonna have injury issues and stuff this year I think we've just forgotten like how insanely good Max Crosby is sometimes like I he is outside of the first three like I think Miles Garrett Micah Parsons Will Anderson are like set them aside those guys are a different tier I still think I would take Max Crosby first after all those guys.

12:05Derrik Klassen: I also just like how full circle this feels because typically when you're doing shows like this in August and you're forecasting the pitfalls for a Super Bowl contender, I know the Ravens didn't make the playoffs last year, but that's the that's the bucket that they're typically in at this time.

12:24Robert Mays: They're in like the top four in Super Bowl odds. So yes, I think it's okay to

12:27Derrik Klassen: The Eagles always operate like this. It'll be fun. I just love that. It shows where we are following the league, that it's the run defense you're worried about, not moving Mahomes off his spot or pressuring Josh Allen into a back-breaking mistake. You're like, who's going to stop the damn run? That's what I'm worried about.

12:48Robert Mays: The other thing I'll say, though, is that we forget how good Max Crosby is. I also think we're forgetting a little bit how good of a pass record Trey Hendrickson can be. Just because he's not Max Crosby, when Trey Hendrickson is healthy, he affects the game. He is a very good player. And so I do think even if the run defense quality isn't going to be the same with both of those guys, that with Nambi Matabike back, with Trey Hendrickson in there now, with Mike Green in year two, I still think overall this front has a chance to feel like it has more teeth than it did last year when we were really worried about this group.

13:22Robert Mays: Even if, to your point, it's not quite the two-way group it would have been with Max Crosby in there.

13:28Dave Helman: Right. And I think the last thing I would say, like, they, again, I think Max would, like, not for certain because you never know what the health stuff, but, like, he would make them, I think, an elite front. I do think that they have more defensive line depth than they did last year, like, on the interior. Like, of course, if Matabike is back, but obviously bringing in Calais Campbell, I think is going to help them a lot. They have a little bit more on the interior than they had, which if we assume that Roquan Smith plays a little bit better early in the year and maybe Zion Young is pretty good early on, they'll definitely get by and be good.

13:57Dave Helman: I'm just saying it would have been cool for them to be an elite front with a guy like Max Crosby.

14:02Robert Mays: Just disclaimer, again, I laid this out at the beginning, but again, these are half-baked takes, okay? This is not like I'm saying this with everything I have. This is something I'm dancing around. Just keep that in the back of your mind as you listen to all of these. Dave, what do you got for me? What are you pulling out of the oven here before it's done?

14:19Derrik Klassen: I'm going to contradict what you just said a little bit, because I understand the exercise. OK, I know these are things, but I really believe this one. No, I really do. The thing the thing that makes it half baked is there are variables working against my guy that might be beyond his control. But with my entire chest, I've said this at times over the months that I've been on the show. I think I said it as recently as like a week ago. But here in August, with my full chest, I want to say, even knowing how good he is and how big a piece he's been of their success, I think the world is asleep on Devante Smith.

14:59Derrik Klassen: And I think he is primed to make another leap in terms of how people perceive him now that A.J. Brown's not in Philadelphia.

15:09Dave Helman: So this is your who's taking the JSN leap. It's going to be Devante Smith.

15:12Derrik Klassen: Which sounds ridiculous because he's basically been a thousand yard receiver every year of his career and made the most memorable play from a Super Bowl win two years ago. He's very much a known name and a known commodity within the NFL. But I swear, I just I feel anecdotally like people talk about Devante Smith like a fringe wide receiver one like, oh, yeah, he's the best wide receiver two in the NFL. No, he's better than that. He's been better than that for a minute. And I think it's way more about opportunity that he isn't viewed that way than his own ability. And I think without A.J. Brown there, he stands to benefit in a big, big way.

15:54Robert Mays: I mean, there are parallels to the JSN situation from last year, I think, on a few different levels. One, even that tone that we talked about JSN, it's like, oh, JSN's a good player. Can JSN really be like the focal point of your offense after trading away DK Metcalf? The answer is yes. JSN can be the focal point of your offense. So you have a guy stepping into a slightly different role where the targets are more directed his way. And a schematic shift helped unlock JSN, the best version of JSN. We're seeing a schematic shift with the Eagles. Like, does that mean that Devontae Smith is in a position where with A.J.

16:27Robert Mays: Brown gone and with a new offense, you can see him in a slightly different light on two different fronts? I'm into this. I think that my hesitation here is mostly just about how well the quarterback settles into that situation. If the quarterback settles into that situation comfortably and Sean Mannion has the goods from day one, why can't Devante Smith be a 1500 yard receiver?

16:51Derrik Klassen: That's my only misgiving is new scheme. How does Sean Mannion's adjust? You know, how does he settle into Philly? How does Jalen Hurts adjust to the scheme? And also, no matter what, this is still going to be a team that I assume is going to run the hell out of the football. So you're still talking about probably fewer opportunities than a few other offenses. But if those things break in his favor, I really have little doubt that he could live up to receiving that amount of work. I looked this up over the time that Devante has been in the NFL. He's 45th in the league in targets per route run among all wide receivers in the NFL.

17:33Derrik Klassen: A.J. Brown was 10th over the same time span, ninth if you only include the Eagles years. But despite that, Devontae Smith was 11th in the league in EPA per target. Like when he gets the football, really, really good shit happens. And it's just a matter of this is a team that runs the shit out of the football and has been and has had another receiver that they have to worry about. over the course of their time together in Philly, AJ Brown bounced between 25 and 27 % target share. Devante Smith never had a 23 % target share. He's always hovered between 18 and 22%. So when you like, when you factor in running the football and the fact that AJ Brown was the first look in that offense, most of the time, I think it's kind of remarkable that he's been consistently an 1100 yard receiver over the course of his career, despite all of that.

18:28Derrik Klassen: And I'm just, I'm calling my shot now. Like he's an all pro receiver. I know he's never been named one before, but he is an all pro caliber receiver.

18:36Dave Helman: I think you can get me there on this because yeah, he is an extremely talented player because the thing is too, like if you told me right now that Sean Mannion is an above average play caller and Jalen hurts opens up the bag of throws that he can make by like 10 to 15%. What that equals in my head is like, yeah, Devante Smith is getting like 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns. And so I do think that he's absolutely capable of it. I think a lot of it does come down to me to like, you know, Sean Manning, we just don't know. We haven't seen some of it yet. Jalen Hurts like has to be able to make every single throw on the field because even if Sam Darnold is, you don't necessarily want him to be like a high volume passer, you know, throwing 40 times a game.

19:14Dave Helman: He can make every single part. He can throw every single part of the field and access everything. And I think Devonta Smith is a receiver that can access every part of the field. And so that to me is kind of a lot of what this comes down to, which, you know, I think I've voiced a lot of my trepidations about whether or not that's going to be possible or not.

19:31Robert Mays: Even though I'll do throw one last like JSN parallel both of those guys if you look at the numbers I mean they are two of the most efficient college players on like a rate basis that we've seen as prospects in the last like 10 years. JSN averaged four yards per route run 2020. Devontae Smith averaged like 4.38 the year that he won the Heisman. We're talking about like all time per play metrics as prospects. And when you can do that, it's a signal for what your just overall skill level and talent is. And for sometimes it's just about, are you deployed in the exact right situation to fully tap into that?

20:07Robert Mays: There's never been a question about how good those guys are as players. It was about how they were being featured. And I think you could probably make a similar argument about Devontae Smith to the one you could make about JSN going into last year. So I like this one. All right. That's an optimistic one. Let me start with my first pessimistic one. I'm out on the Niners.

20:28Dave Helman: You're done?

20:30Robert Mays: I'm out. It hurts, but I get it. I'm totally out. So when we did the supporting cash, you guys know me, okay? I, for the most part, I'm an optimistic person. I like to see the best case scenario. I like to believe in the things going well and working out for everyone except the Bears. like everyone else. I'm like, I see how this can go correctly for you. And so when we're talking about the supporting cast of the Niners, I'm looking at this group where it's Mike Evans and it's Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle's ahead of schedule and CMC stayed healthy all of last year. And like, all right, I can get behind this.

21:07Robert Mays: Like, I do think that all of this stuff falling into place, this can be one of the best receiving cores in the league. This can be one of the best offenses in the league. After Pearsall got hurt, that was the thing that just kind of broke me. The comparison that I would make, you know, when you're standing at the top of a really tall building and you're not aware of the fact that it's tall until you look down, or if you're hiking and you're like, oh, I'm totally fine. And then you look down and you're like, holy shit, if I slip, I could die. That's how the Ricky Pearsall injury has affected me, where I just wasn't seeing everything happening below me.

21:43Robert Mays: And now it's all I can think about. I came to this take before the Mike Evans news today. And now he's out with a quad strain. So I'm just done. Like I am, I'm not going to, I have, if this works out great, I'll be pleasantly surprised, but putting any faith and you had Kittle is still coming off of an Achilles. Who knows when he's going to be right. McCaffrey got 400 touches last year. How's that going to go? And so I've gone from, I'm choosing to believe in all of this working out to, I have zero faith that any of this is going to go well.

22:18Dave Helman: Let me ask you this. What does I'm out mean? Does this mean like you think they're like a six-win team? No, no, no, no. Okay, you're just like they're not serious anymore.

22:30Robert Mays: Yes. I think the sadder end point on this is I think that the window is over. I think we just missed it.

22:42Derrik Klassen: Now we're in the spirit of this show. All right, let's go.

22:46Robert Mays: That's where I go. Like if I'm building on that thought where, okay, if they just don't have the juice offensively, because similar to the Bears, Derek, and obviously like it's different when it's Fred Warner and Nick Bosa coming back compared to Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon. But there's a lot of wish casting with where we want the Niners defense to go where those guys coming back is obviously huge, but you're going to need to see real strides from the young players for them to be a championship caliber defense. And so if there's a lot of projection involved in that side of the ball, the offense was going to have to be a hyper elite for this team to be able to compete with those other teams in the NFC.

23:21Robert Mays: And now I'm just in a place where can that happen? Like if Dijon Stribling is your second most important pass catcher at points of this season because you don't know what's going to happen with Kittle and Evans is a little bit banged up. Are we in a place where they can get there? And if they can't get there and they're a 9-10 win hopeful wildcard team with Mike Evans into his 30s, McCaffrey's about to turn 30, how much longer does Kittle have? And it's not like the drafts recently have been stockpiled with talent where you're really excited about what the next wave of the franchise looks like.

23:54Robert Mays: And so if this season isn't going to go as well as you want it to, is that it? Again, that feels like a pretty drastic place to reach on August 3rd, but that's the spirit of the exercise. Like I'm pretty, I'd be pretty bummed out right now. If I was projecting things moving forward, if I were a Niners fan based on how the last week has gone.

24:14Derrik Klassen: That's a pretty classic case of how your expectations influence your opinions on this. Cause yeah, I mean, especially Kyle Shanahan's coming off of the job that he did last year, where they super glued and duct taped it together to get to double digit wins and reach the second round of the playoffs. I could totally buy a world where they do that again. And like, you know, Kittle's a better player in the second half of the season than he is in the beginning. You get you get guys back from injury. The defense is better. I completely buy the 49ers as a playoff caliber team. But Super Bowl overcoming the two other teams in the division to get to play home playoff games.

24:55Derrik Klassen: It's kind of hard to imagine that. And when you're a team that's been in that mix for most of the last five, six years, I mean, that's the standard that we should hold the 49ers to. And so up against those level of expectations, I completely see where you're coming from. Even on the surface, it sounds very knee jerk because outside of Pierce Hall, I'm not under the impression any of these new injuries are like season enders. but still like after a while like with the age of the roster and the consistency with which this stuff happens I don't blame anybody for their pessimism but yeah I don't think it's knee-jerk

25:33Dave Helman: because though it's like I think it would be knee-jerk if let's just say it's x team it's just like a random team and something goes wrong for them that we didn't necessarily perceive in the in training camp like just whatever it is I think that's easier to be like knee-jerk and you just freak out that something new happened but like this is the exact problem that we thought we were going to have with the 49ers and it is like already unraveling what four or five padded practices in like we have barely started this thing and it's already as bad as it could be and that even gets to the point of like you said I think we're hopeful that Kittle can return healthy at some point but like we don't know that was a pretty late injury and then McCaffrey is the one that like technically not injury issues or anything last year but like a player a running back his age coming off that many touches should like almost be treated like an injury like that The guys that age just don't really take that many touches.

26:20Dave Helman: And so I still think I'm at the point that until I see the wheels off the wagon, I'm going to believe to some degree. But I get the amount of pessimism we're pushing towards here.

26:31Robert Mays: Let's be clear. I will get there with Kyle Shanahan before the season actually kicks off. But right now, it's hard to see the light at the end of that tunnel. This is brutal. And I think it's partially the Pearsall element of it and how excited I was to see him as more of a featured player in this. And now it's like, but it reminds you how fragile the whole thing is. Because last year, even with Pierce Hall hurt, as they were banged up at receiver, you could still lean on Jawan Jennings a little bit. Now he's not even there. What is dribbling even going to be? And so I just think the whole thing was fragile coming into it.

27:04Robert Mays: And now we're already realizing the fragility. And so to me, it's more about what is the mindset you're taking as you walk into this? I think before, like I said, I was willing to kind of wave some of it away and think, oh, it's probably going to be okay. Now I think I've just turned it from truly from glass half full to glass half empty. I think that's the transition that has happened as they've gotten more banged up. And I think I'm just being mired in that type of thinking right now.

27:31Derrik Klassen: I'll say it again, too. Like most teams would be thrilled to reach the divisional round of the playoffs and get wiped off the field. Like, what is that? What is that doing for the 49ers? I mean, that's what happened to them last year. And like, it was so impressive the way their season ended. And it still ended horrifically. I mean, 41 to six was the final score in case you forgot. And so like, there's levels to this thing. And the Niners are one of those teams where I just don't know if a divisional round exit is going to make anybody out there happy. And so that's a shitty place to be. But yeah, like I have no problem imagining the 49ers as a playoff team.

28:13Derrik Klassen: But beyond that, it, yeah, it already starts to feel shaky, which is, which is depressing.

28:19Robert Mays: I'm glad you said that because that it actually points to one of the takes I'm going to have a little bit later on the show, but let's take our first quick break and then come back with a few more of these.

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32:50Robert Mays: All right, Derek, you're up, buddy. What is your next half-baked take about 2026?

32:55Dave Helman: All right, this is actually my last one. Like I said, difficult exercise for me to come up with a bunch. And I'm unfortunately going to stay pretty pessimistic. I just, the more I look at the roster and how I think about the organization and some of the other external factors, I'm just not sure it's going to happen for Jaden Daniels again in Washington. Like, I just get such an icky feeling looking at this organization. And I don't even think it's necessarily about him as a player. Like, obviously, like, it didn't happen for Baker Mayfield in Cleveland after a pretty impressive rookie season. And then he's able to revive his career.

33:28Dave Helman: I just think that, like, this is not an organization generally that I trust. I look at the roster. They have, I think, on offense, they have one player under 30 who I think can make a Pro Bowl that's not Jaden Daniels. And it's their right guard. that's it the rest of the roster is either old or it's just not very good right now because they've missed on so many draft picks and i think or haven't had them they've missed on them or they didn't make very many we're spending them on like one year rentals for like debo samuel and stuff like that and so i think you have all of that and i think the offensive line like i get what like tunsell is still really good but connor like connor lee we just don't know it felt like left guard i know chris paul played fine for them last year but i think offensive linemen who like have an okay year in a very specific system.

34:15Dave Helman: Sometimes I'm not always willing to trust that. And then

34:17Robert Mays: Nick is a signal that you should listen to. And the fact that no one wanted to pay Chris Paul as every single guard that could had a pulse and could walk and chew gum got$15 million a year. That's one of those things where I'm like, all right, my antenna goes up when I look at something like that.

34:33Dave Helman: That's such a good point. Cause I didn't even think about it like that, but it was just like, yes, if every guard in the NFL is getting double what they had ever gotten before and teams were just like, no, he can stay in Washington. That's fine. That, I think, does signal something. And then, like, the pass catchers, man, like, you're banking on 31-year-old Terry McLaurin, who is coming off a season where he's banged up. Maybe Antonio Williams is good for you, but again, he's like a slot only. I'm not personally the biggest fan of Chigakonko at tight end, and, like, we don't know what the offense is going to be.

35:05Dave Helman: And for as good as I think Jaden Daniels is, like, he's supremely talented, I still think that there are some like schematic concerns with him that I think that you would need there would need to be a play caller on this staff that I know is really really good or at least knows the exact things that are going to make Jaden Daniels tick and until we see it I just don't know with that and like I just there are just a lot of things about this situation and roster that I'm like it's going to be like two or three years of digging themselves out of this

35:31Robert Mays: hole before I feel good about it so I when you were starting your point I was kind of nodding along and i'm just like oh yeah i mean this is a worrying season i mean this whole thing is kind of on life support when you fire both coordinators and have the year that you did last year i think everyone there is probably feeling a little bit of urgency i didn't realize that you were projecting it out to his rookie contract is not going to go well in washington which i don't think that's crazy because now we're going to be three years in and if you're starting over in year four can you get there by year five i think that's fine i just didn't realize we were getting there so quickly in the point that you were making.

36:08Dave Helman: And it's and I think it's like, OK, if we're starting over, that could be good, right? You could be the Jaguars and you could hire Liam Cohen and it could fix Trevor Lawrence. And I think that's obviously totally on the table. This is still just an organization, like I said, that I don't necessarily trust to do that. And so that's where I think some of my like I was willing to push it out a little bit further comes from.

36:26Derrik Klassen: This ties itself to a take that I had very, very well. and I think it's really in the spirit of the exercise because I'm just going to go ahead and project the season for two different ball clubs. We would agree that, Robert, you just outlined it. It feels pretty dicey in Washington. If this season doesn't go well, could very much be a situation where you're changing the coaching staff. Like, that's really not hard to imagine. We're all very, very high on what could happen for the offense in Los Angeles with the Chargers. and their new offensive play caller. If Washington season goes terribly and Mike McDaniel turns the chargers into a juggernaut, who's calling shots in Washington that has a relationship with Mike McDaniel that might want him to come in and fix things for his young quarterback.

37:18Okay.

37:18Dave Helman: Now you're getting me back around on the other end. This is why it's half fake because I didn't go like projecting out who the potential coaching hires would be.

37:26Derrik Klassen: Assuming Adam Peters doesn't get thrown out with Dan Quinn. I would have Mike McDaniel pretty close to the top of my list. And again, this is assuming things go well for the chargers, which I think they will. If the chargers win double digit games and have a top five, top 10 offense, how is Mike McDaniel? Not one of the first phone calls you make. If you've got a guy like Jaden Daniels,

37:49Robert Mays: I'm wondering what his feelings are about going back to Washington, considering how it ended for that group. Obviously it's completely different. for an organization but i just that's new ownership new like i mean peters is there

38:02Derrik Klassen: you're getting a new stadium i don't know like i'm not saying it's the best place to land in the entire nfl but it's better than when mike and kyle shanahan were there last time i i do think

38:14Robert Mays: that if he were offered the right job mike mcdaniel would probably want to be a head coach again i don't know that for a fact i can tell you right now he's soaking up the sun boy he is i bet he's I mean, he loves California. I think he's really happy to be there with his family. I mean, they used to vacation in Orange County even before he came back to do this. And so I do think that, again, for the right opportunities, certainly, but maybe for any head coaching opportunity, he might be out of here. But if Mike Medano got to the end of the season and he was like, you know what, I think I'm just going to hang around for a little while.

38:48Robert Mays: I don't think it would be the most shocking thing in the world.

38:51Derrik Klassen: El Segundo is pretty tough to beat.

38:53Dave Helman: yeah I mean not having to have like the pressure of being a head coach and also you're just getting design shit for Justin Herbert who is like quarterback like Madden cyborg man like yeah

39:04Robert Mays: I'm sure he's gonna have a great time doing that I think uh the the vibe I got uh was that I feel Mike McDaniel felt pretty good about the decision that he made this offseason I think I think he's feeling pretty good about that decision my next one here let's stick with AFC playoff contenders I'm going to turn the tone around here and actually be a little bit optimistic. I think I'm buying the Texans Seattle like path to the Superbowl. Yeah.

39:31Dave Helman: Okay.

39:32Robert Mays: Yeah. I think I'm buying it. It there maybe a year ago, we've talked about this a year ago. I think an offense that definitely has work to do and it was felt disjointed last year and really never found itself. I think that would be a big blinking warning light for me. but last year you look at a team that you know finished middle of the pack uh you know when it comes to offensive efficiency super explosive right i mean success rates things like that they were fine we just turned the ball over a lot but still isn't the hyper elite offense we typically see when the super bowl a team lifted by its defense which we've seen two years in a row the texans are just have similarities to the last two types of team builds we've seen win it and i have no qualms about the defense like zero qualms about the defense i was just there and truly the one thing I think personnel wise where they were like we could probably use one more was just edge depth on early downs then they go get clowny and now it's like all right like what what else do you want for them like in theory I guess the defensive tackle depth is a little bit unproven because Logan Hall and Cade McDonald have not played in this scheme before but like come we're picking nits at that point come on like other than that the entire thing is just loaded I expect them to be elite on that side of the ball again.

40:46Robert Mays: And I do think you can make the case for why the offense can get there. I was looking at the numbers a couple of days ago, just because I was curious about it. And if you take out the first month of the season, which for a new staff, I think I'm willing to do. I do that for the Bears last year. I do that for the Jags last year. So let's just go week five on. From week five on per True Media, when CJ Stroud was on the field, The Texans were 14th in EPA per play. They were 12th in EPA per drop back. 12th. And that's probably like about what the Seahawks just won the Super Bowl with. Yes. And the Texans need to be more explosive if they're going to be a middle of the pack offense.

41:25Robert Mays: That's part of the equation. But you look at what the Texans did this offseason and the improvements that they should have along the offensive line, the bodies that they've added there. I'm really excited about the young pass catchers. Jalen Oles hurt now, but when he gets back, and it should be pretty soon, I think the combination of him and Higgins and Nico Collins, plus just the depth they have at tight end now. I mean, last year they were down to, really it was Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover. Like, that's what they had at tight end by the end of the season. They're going into this year with Cade Stover as their fifth tight end.

41:59Robert Mays: They just have so many different ways they can use those guys based on their personnel compared to what it looked like last year. I just think this is an offense that they have the tool for whatever job is needed now based on the personnel that they have. And they just didn't last year. And you just think about the layers they can add in the run game because they got better up front and the physicality they have now. Like, I'm buying it. And it's possible that I was just there and I got talked into it by the people making the argument for it. But I do see the path for them in the same way that the Seahawks carved their path last year.

42:32Robert Mays: I am buying into it in a way that I think just would have been hard for me to do before seeing Seattle did do what they did last year.

42:40Derrik Klassen: I think I said this on a show earlier this summer. I think it goes underappreciated that CJ Stroud missed a month of the season. And on top of that, with an injury that you would imagine affects your ability to decisively play quarterback. On top of that, I think they had I think CJ played a game without Nico Collins and then Nico missed another game on top of that. Throw in not having tank Dell. I think the the popular image of what the Texans offense was from the playoffs. And I've said it before. That's that game. Yeah. Yeah. Man. Yeah. The playoffs and the Seattle game were like where they were in front of the world.

43:22Derrik Klassen: They looked like dog shit. And I'm not saying they were great all year, but they weren't as bad consistently as that mental image would lead you to believe. That's exactly right. Yeah. If the offensive line is a little bit better, if you get anything out of Tank Dell, if one of the young receivers takes another step, this is it's really not hard for me to imagine at all. And yeah, like I don't have a single question about the defense. So just it doesn't feel like that much has to go right for this to be a really, really good team.

43:53Dave Helman: that's kind of where I'm at they're closer than it it feels like you you talk about like you know we talk about like oh this is what it took for the the Seahawks to win it last year and obviously they were incredibly explosive because of how well JSN played Sam Darnold finished the year 19th in QBR CJ Stroud was 11th and obviously again the playoff game happened where he just like completely melted down but again like he didn't have Nico Collins in that game and he's like it's just like I think that they are closer to this thing being pretty good than not and I know that last year Robert I think you and I even did a show on maybe one of the mailbacks about like the Houston completely reshaped their offensive line last year and last year it was like well they were doing with with a lot of guys who were like lower on the the bin and it was a lot of like young players now we now we have like more proof of concept with I think Ariante Urshari now they're bringing in guys who like if Brayden Smith and Wyatt Teller are still healthy I think can play at a better level than what they were getting last year at some of those spots like I you can actually get me there on those guys being good now and then again if any of the young pass catch take a step whether it's Higgins is like a real certified number two if Noel can be like a good field stretcher and then even on top of all that last year they just this is a rushing offense that wants to do a lot of like duo and move you and be efficient they just didn't have good runners for that last year David Montgomery like that's the whole book on what that he gives you so like it just it feels like the pieces make sense for this and the run game specifically I think last year

45:20Robert Mays: they were truly just trying to tread water. They're just trying to keep their heads above water. And whenever they would try to do something that was a little bit more complex, that's when they were having a lot of negative plays. And so I think the thought was just, run duo again. Like we know we're going to get four yards. And so now you have guys that if you want to run a little bit more gap scheme stuff, if you want to get some little outside zone to sprinkle in there as a counter, I think that there's going to be more variety to what they can do there this year just because the bodies are different.

45:46Robert Mays: And I'm with you on the pass catchers. I do think Higgins has a chance. I think he's the guy that could feel a little bit different this year is like a true number two receiver within that offense. And he's a guy that I just didn't know what to do with coming into the draft. He's been better than I thought he was going to be last year. And I think he has a chance to take even another step. And you talk about the offensive line to Dave's credit. I think there's a real chance. Trent Brown wins that job.

46:11Derrik Klassen: Really? That's what I like to hear. Confirm my priors.

46:14Robert Mays: I think there's a real chance he wins that job. And it's not because Braden Smith is like some disappointment. I think that there's a real chance he just wins that job because he's the better guy. And then now you Braden Smith then becomes your swing tackle, which isn't a bad place to be. I think Rutledge will be one of the five. However, it shakes out. He's going to add physicality that they just did not have last year. And so I really do think, like you said, Derek, I think the people are coming at this from a perspective. And I understand it where it's like, oh, they were a disaster on offense last year.

46:48Robert Mays: That's just not true. Like over the course of the season, that's just not true. And I think it's good to kind of beat that drum of they have a smaller gap to close than we remember because of how it ended. And I'm kind of getting there. I'm kind of getting there and I'm kind of talking myself into it. All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a few more half-baked takes. As I've crept closer to 40, I've tried to stay pretty active, working out five to six times a week, eating as well as I can most days. But like a lot of people, my energy and recovery just aren't quite what it used to be.

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51:40Robert Mays: All right, Derek's out. So Dave, Dave, what do you got for me?

51:44Derrik Klassen: This is the part of the show where I'm going to grab the wheel and just steer us into the ditch because this has nothing to do with the upcoming season. But I want to talk about and let me use Derek's parlance here. I want to talk about nerfing kickers moving forward. I want to talk about this already. We got to make it. And look, I'm the special teams guy, but we need this stuff to to matter like more than it does. And what I mean by that is it's too easy to kick field goals these days. It's too easy. And I know an NFL kicker listening to this would be laughing because, like, there's no job security.

52:27Derrik Klassen: And it's a very hard job to do. I get that. But it's too easy to, like, get two first downs and kick a freaking field goal these days. And I think it's time to talk about making life a little bit more difficult. So the stats I wanted to look up heading into this average starting field position after a kickoff this past season in the NFL was the minus 31 yard line. That's up six yards over a decade in 2016. It was the minus 25. So you're seeing the new rules take shape. And like this is not anything we haven't talked about before. We know field position is changing in the NFL based on these rules.

53:12Derrik Klassen: But what I was curious about, guys, specifically on drives that started after kickoffs, there were 140 field goals of 50 plus yards attempted last year. That is double the number of field goals on drives after a kickoff in 2016. 76 140 from 76 in 10 years

53:40Robert Mays: I thought it would be even more than that honestly I thought it would be even more drastic than that double is insane but I truly thought the gap would be even bigger how about this

53:49Derrik Klassen: 70 % of those kicks were made in 2025 in 2016 the number was 46 so

53:59Dave Helman: what's the total difference of made field goals then that's gotta be like That's almost a hundred.

54:05Derrik Klassen: I would think I don't have the page in front of me, but it is, I mean, I want to say there were 90, there were 91 made field goals of 50 plus yards on drives after kickoffs last year. And so like, I mean, do the math when you talk about how much it helps to get moved out. What to the plus 35. I mean, you're talking about, especially like, especially if you've got a guy that can bang one from 55 plus, Plus you're talking about like needing 20 yards to have a chance at a field goal. And by the way, there were 22 60 plus yards attempt, 60 plus yard attempts in 2025. We didn't even have 10 60 yard attempts in a season until 2020.

54:49Derrik Klassen: And I know some of that is the K balls and the way that they've changed the rules to let kickers work on the balls leading up to the game. I don't really care about that. And I will say this. it's fun to have 55 58 60 yard field goal attempts it's fun is it though it is if there is some degree of like if there's a greater degree of uncertainty that it's going to be missed and that's why my proposal is just narrow the goal posts just i like if wow narrow the goal posts by like three or four yards and let's see how many of these guys are still banging them at 70%. Hey, I'm with that.

55:28Robert Mays: I also, let me add a layer to this. When are, when do you want to see a kicker try to kick like a 65 yard field goal? When in the game, like last two minutes of the, or of the half done, no kicking field goals outside of 55 yards until the last two minutes of each last two minutes of each half. See, I disagree. I disagree.

55:49Dave Helman: Oh, I kind of like

55:50Derrik Klassen: that no because that lets coaches off the hook that lets coach then you have to go for it but but like the whole joy of it is the strategy of like is this a good time to try it what's how's our kicker performing from range am i a coward like i want coaches to have the choice because i want them to have to be brave if you don't have a choice but they're not going to be brave that's

56:14Robert Mays: the problem is that they're going to keep being cowards if you give them the opportunity to kick all these 60-yard field goals.

56:20Derrik Klassen: Not if we narrow the goalposts and make it more like a 35-40 % proposition instead of a 60-70 % proposition. You're right. That's probably enough. I'm fully in favor of this, by the way. Whatever, like, I would be happy.

56:34Robert Mays: I like narrow. I like narrow. I like it being really skinny, and now it just becomes like an accuracy contest. I'm into that. That's a good point,

56:42Dave Helman: because then you can still make it from 65. You just have to be dead on. where's like more and more alien life.

56:48Robert Mays: And now we're going to be at a place 20 years from now where they're going to kick 80 yard field goals. Raising it is not enough. Let's let's shrink that shit. I'm into it.

56:55Derrik Klassen: Yeah, for sure. I just, I want it to be an element. I just want coaches to have to second guess whether it's the right decision a little bit more than they are right now. And I want it to feel a little more like work when you get to kick a field goal instead of throwing too shallow outs to your slot receiver and being in field goal range. Like that ain't it. Yeah.

57:18Robert Mays: It is allowed us to play a cowardly version of football that I really have no interest in. My next one here is not about a team that's kicking 65 yard field goals. That's off the table for them. I'll tell you right now. This is the most galaxy brain one I have. I'm a little worried about the ramps. Oh, Oh,

57:37Derrik Klassen: and this is mean like power dynamics wise, or what does this mean? Fresh off of your sit down with the MVP. What did he tell you?

57:44Robert Mays: Nothing happened there. I want to be clear about this. Nothing happened there that would lead me to this place. If anything, I think the mindset is correct, right? Like I think that one of Sean McVay's superpowers is beyond X's and O's. I think he has really, really good emotional intelligence. He understands what his teams need at what moment, all of that stuff. And I think that he understands this moment is a little bit different than a lot of other seasons just because of the expectations. But when you go back through like sports history, and I know that this isn't the 2004 for Lakers, right?

58:17Robert Mays: I mean, this isn't when you have all these stars at the end of their careers. We've got guys that are firmly in their prime, Miles Garrett, Trent McDuffie. I guess Aaron Donald would kind of be like this if he did come back, but they are extremely talented. But when does this work? When has this ever happened where we come into it and it's like, oh, that's the best team. They're going to win it. I guess maybe like the Dodgers points over the last couple of years. But I think so often this happens where we have these like super teams coming into the season. And then for one reason or another, it just doesn't work out that way.

58:51Robert Mays: And I'm just kind of sitting there looking at the Rams right now. And I'm being like, it's going too well. There's people are too confident that this is going to happen. And I just, I would be so uneasy if that was the tenor around my team heading into a season.

59:07Derrik Klassen: Calling bullshit on you right now, my friend, because I brought this up in the spring and I got laughed down. I said it is not fun for the expectation to be Super Bowl or nothing. It is not a fun place to be when you go into the year and not being in that game is a failure. And you said, I'll cry me a river like that's too bad because that's a great place to be.

59:34Robert Mays: As I've sat with it, I think you might be right. I think you might be right. I think I'd be feeling kind of uneasy if I were in charge of that building right now, just because of what you have to do and like, and how you have to think about it and the messaging that comes along with it. And even like, if we want to be serious for a second, if you're Kobe Turner or Steve Avila or Byron Young, and you have bled for that franchise for the last three years, you've ascended as players like a Byron Young, where it's like, I deserve to get paid. I deserve to be a guy who's making$30 million a year as an edge player.

1:00:07Robert Mays: And you see them go out and make a move for a Miles Garrett and give him a new contract or Tremendous, McDuffie and give him a new contract and you're going to be a free agent after this year. Wouldn't you feel a certain way about that? I just think that there are certain dynamic things that I'm like, I don't know, man. Like, is it all a little bit too good to be true now? I guess is the place that I land. And this is very half-baked, a reminder, very half-baked, but it has been an intrusive thought for me over the last couple of weeks.

1:00:35Dave Helman: So I think I can get there on the dynamics of it all. Like this is, it's, it's very rare that like, it kind of feels like universally we've all agreed that if this Rams don't win the Superbowl, it's a failure. Whereas like, we almost never think that about a football team because it's incredibly difficult to do that. Like even other teams that have been very good before it's, it's still like, well, yeah, you know, anything can happen, but with the Rams, it truly is like, if they don't do it, it is, it is a failure. The, the, the, my thought on the other end, there have definitely been some other like teams that we've thought were super teams and stuff before going into the year.

1:01:12Dave Helman: How many of them were as good as the Rams were last year? Like, I think that's true. Like, cause some of them are like, that's true. They all cobble it together. Like in one off season, it feels like the super team Eagles. Right. Exactly. But it's, and that's the thing is like the 2010 Eagles were like a wild card team, but, or like a good team, but they were not like what the Rams were last year. I think the closest in my mind is like maybe what those Broncos teams were like with Peyton Manning, where it was like they already had the offense and then they kind of pay to be this machine defense and they turn it up and they actually do it.

1:01:47Robert Mays: Yeah, that's a good one. Like they did sign a bunch of free agents. They did add a ton of star power on that side of the ball. It actually did happen for them. But I don't know. I just I can fully recognize that they are the most talented team and I understand why they're the favorite. I just think that it's to such a degree that there would be a little bit of uneasiness with if if I were in that seat. And that's where I am right now.

1:02:11Derrik Klassen: There should be. And that's why it's it's terrifying to know that there's only one successful way that the season can end. Ideally, you want a sweet spot of saying we got a hell of a squad. We think we can win the whole damn thing. But here are half a dozen reasons why this season can be a success anyway. really even if the Rams lose the Super Bowl still a disappointing season relative to what they've done and the signals that they've sent but you know what now that I've had four months to sit with it I'm more at peace with it than I was in the spring because it's well it's it's like when you used to take tests in school or at least when I used to take tests in school you get to a point where you're like screw it man I know it or I don't let's let's go out and let it rip and whatever happens happens like it's here now and so i think you just make peace with it but yeah like it's it's a terrifying place to be when there are only there are so few outcomes that

1:03:10Robert Mays: would be deemed successful but being the best team being the most talented team does not guarantee that you're going to win the super bowl football no it's it is just not it's so much more based on chance so many things have to fall into place for it to happen for you and so there's just a little part of me that has this voice in the back of my head of like, is it going too well? Did it all go too well? And I'm having trouble ignoring that right now. All right, Dave, how many more do you have?

1:03:37Derrik Klassen: I got two. We can do one really quickly. I'll just, this one's way out. I got a couple more too, actually. Okay, man. This one's way out of left field too, so I'll just do it quickly. But it is such a ridiculous look for the NFL that FIFA rolled into town over the summer and used all their stadiums with natural grass. And we're just going to go back to artificial turf now. It's like, all right, the World Cup's gone. We can go back to this plastic bullshit, which I like. I know the science of this is like inconclusive. conclusive all i know for sure is that according to the nfl pa themselves 92 percent of nfl players pulled by the pa would prefer to play on natural grass is that definitive though 92 percent of the guys they pulled i mean like oh you're being facetious yes yes it's 92 percent a lot is that a majority what i would like to see and look i get it i mean i think 17 teams play on turf I understand that that's a lot of moving parts and you can't just come in and redo all of that in one offseason.

1:04:47Derrik Klassen: But what if we just did like a guinea pig situation where we just chose a division to play on natural grass and maybe we could go about seeing what the benefits and pitfalls of this are for real. But I just I think it's crazy how it's like, ah, it's too expensive. We can't do this. We can't do that. And then Lamin, Yamal and Leo Messi show up for a month and it's like, all right, these guys need grass. Like what? Like, I don't blame George Kittle or anybody else for being offended by that.

1:05:17Dave Helman: Really think it as it truly is as simple as the people doing the job wanted a certain way. But they want the working conditions to be a certain way. I kind of think that it should be that simple. Like, and I again, I understand they've got to pay for it, all this stuff. But like if the players who are on the field playing the game feel comfortable, that is good.

1:05:36Robert Mays: I think much could it possibly cost compared to how much money the NFL makes.

1:05:42Dave Helman: All the other shit they do. It can't. Exactly. Like it can't be that crazy.

1:05:45Derrik Klassen: The answer is it probably costs a shitload. But guess what? The NFL is a money printing machine. Like to cry me a river. It like you, you can afford it. I promise you can afford it.

1:05:57Robert Mays: There's made$432 million in national revenue last year before you even get an ascent from whatever you made locally. I think somewhere along the way in that, you can probably pay for some grass. And I'm sorry if you have to read. I know they have grass.

1:06:14Dave Helman: Right.

1:06:15Derrik Klassen: Well, that's the thing. If the Packers can do it, anybody can do it. You can re-sod after Taylor Swift's tour comes to town. You know, you can re-sod after the country music festival that you're going to host. I promise you can afford it.

1:06:30Robert Mays: Or just not have the country music festival. That's also an option. all right i got two more here i'm gonna do all right i'm gonna do this one next who derek were you saying about the the niners like i could see the niners being a playoff team this year like you want to pick the niners as a playoff team or dave were you saying that i think you were saying that dave i mean i i can probably still get there too i can i can imagine it like

1:06:55Derrik Klassen: that's within the realm of outcomes okay how many teams would you say that about

1:07:01Robert Mays: I can imagine them making the playoffs or just like I want to make a case that this is like I

1:07:07Dave Helman: would lean towards yes um I would without doing the the rundown I would say in any given year the answer is probably like one or two more than there are playoff spots like there's always going

1:07:19Robert Mays: to be one or two that has to miss okay so I that's right I think right now my take the actual format of this take is, I think this is going to be the hardest year I've ever had in whittling it down to picking 14 playoff teams. I am losing my mind. Even now, it's August. We're a month away from having to do this. And there's so many layers to this. But just let me read off the teams to you that I think it's hard to make the argument against them. It's much easier to make for them than against them bills patriots ravens bangles texans jags which we'll talk about in a second broncos chiefs chargers seahawks niners rams 18 from the nfc south pick one lions packers bears that's not even considering the vikings eagles cowboys i think that's 18 or 19 teams And I think there are a lot of years where you look at that group of 18 or 19 and it's like, I could pull coals here.

1:08:24Robert Mays: I can pull coals there. This is easy for me to do. Perfect examples. Bears and Jags, as Ben Johnson came out and said this week, we are the regression team. The Jags, I think, understand they are a potential regression team. I have so much faith in the infrastructure of those two offenses compared to what some of the spike surprise teams often look like, where I'm like, am I really not going to pick Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen to make the playoffs after what we've seen from them over the last couple years? And then you look at the Bengals. The Bengals didn't make the playoffs last year. The Bengals have a last-place schedule.

1:08:58Robert Mays: The Bengals have an offense that we think is going to be in the top five. That's one where I feel compelled to do it. I feel compelled to put the Ravens in the playoffs even though they didn't make the playoffs last year. Dallas, I want to put Dallas in the playoffs. The Eagles, am I not going to pick the Eagles to make the playoffs if things break right for them on both sides of the ball. Like the lions are favored in like 14 of their 17 games. They're justifiably the favorite in the division. They didn't make the playoffs last year. And so I'm just having such a hard time looking at that group and figuring out who the three or four are going to be that I just chop off at the bottom.

1:09:33Robert Mays: And I just can't, I'm not sure it's ever been this hard in part because of the complexion of the teams that we're talking about and the ones that theoretically would often be on the fringe are teams that are led by these guys who have done a phenomenal job building elite offense over the last couple of years.

1:09:50Derrik Klassen: I think I'm pretty famously a more lenient greater than you two, but I'm just, when you started talking, I'm looking at the standings. I think I would struggle to get to five teams that I right now am willing to just definitively say, know I don't see it I think I would struggle five teams overall yes like I don't know I could get there I'll get there I'll grant you I'll grant you the Dolphins the Jets the Browns the Cardinals and then I I love Cam Ward but that's not happening all right I'll leave it you know what after the conversation that we had last week I'll even no screw that because it's more fun to believe in cam word it's more fun so yeah like four maybe five is like where i draw the line and to be clear some of these teams would have to have some crazy shit go their way but i'm just not willing to write it off as a possibility right now like even you know like a team like atlanta like it helps that they play in the nfc south but they do you like you i can come up with a way where this type of shit could happen for a lot of these sorts of teams go up with it for all

1:11:02Robert Mays: the NFC South teams that's why in the list of teams I said just a team from the NFC South

1:11:07Dave Helman: I I think I've actually I think I'm kind of close to Robert Sutton I think this is the hangover of last year being so weird it's exactly right like it's the hangover of like the bills being kind of good but not as good as you thought they were going to be the Patriots all of a sudden being a team that is now in the mix like obviously Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson not being in the mix at all like it this is the hangover of last year being as weird as it as it was and like you brought up a number of times robert different teams can do it now like the the texans being what they are and the sea like just like different kinds of teams can do it now like i even i think two years ago if i looked at the construction of what the pittsburgh steelers are i would have been like i guess with tom and like sure they can do it but i look at them now i'm like they could maybe be like the seventh best defense in the league and the offense is okay and that's enough to be a 10 win wildcard team like it's it's the league is just different and i don't even want to make that

1:11:57Robert Mays: argument for them and i still think that you can make the argument for them and so i it's exactly right derek it's a downstream effect of how weird last season was the different makeups of teams that we feel like are capable of being solidified playoff teams and the fact that there are teams that made the playoffs last year the their teams without elite there are teams with elite quarterbacks that didn't make the playoffs last year that i feel compelled to think they're probably going to be back in the playoffs this year, but I don't necessarily want to eject a lot of the teams that got into the playoffs last year.

1:12:28Robert Mays: And so it's going to be a rough process of whittling down that list and trying to find teams that I want to make arguments against. And I'm already not looking forward to it. And I can't remember it feeling quite like this in any recent season because of all of those factors that you just laid out. All right, Dave, you got one more? I got one more.

1:12:52Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I got one. Yeah, we can do it quickly. One last one. I will pose to y 'all as a question. How good would the Saints offense have to be for y 'all to be surprised at how good it is? Top five. Okay. All right. Surprised? So I don't have to talk Mays into anything. What about you, Mark?

1:13:12Dave Helman: I would say top 10. I think we're a little over our skis. I think top 10, I would be a little bit surprised.

1:13:17Derrik Klassen: Okay. But we're not over our skis, though. I listened back to y 'all supporting, supporting cast show, Derek, you had the saints, I think 13th in the NFC and Mays had them 10th, which is better than you, but still not exactly good. Yeah, but I, did I really have them that low? You might've had them. You might've had them 12th, but you had them pretty far down there.

1:13:42Dave Helman: Okay. I don't know. I, I, what is more about the rest of the NFC than it does about the saints. That's what I was going to say. I feel like the NFC was like the bottom three were just like scrap it terrible. Or maybe the bottom two. It was like Washington and the Giants. And then after that, I was like, I don't know. You can kind of convince me on a lot of different ways.

1:14:00Robert Mays: There's uncertainty with the Saints. Like we've never seen Jordan Tyson play professional football. If Jordan Tyson came in and was a monster immediately and we're watching him and Chris Olave and we're like, yeah, that wouldn't surprise me. We just haven't seen it happen yet. For the record, this is a result. And I y 'all had the just watching Jordan Tyson camp clips.

1:14:24Derrik Klassen: I'm watching Jordan Tyson camp clips. Okay. No, there's two things. There's two things. First is Jordan Tyson looks really good in camp clips. And this is the half-baked take show for the record. So that's number one. But the other part too, if Eric McCoy can just stay fricking healthy this year, Eric McCoy over to David Edwards, over to Kelvin banks, could be incredible. Like it could be like, you know, I think Brandon Thorne put out his offensive line rankings earlier this month. And you're starting to see that sort of content come out. I think most people have the Saints slotted somewhere top 10-ish in terms of offensive line.

1:15:11Derrik Klassen: But like if Kelvin Banks continues to ascend and Eric McCoy stays healthy, Hopefully you get more out of Tali Yusufuaga this year. Like, I don't think it's crazy to think that could be like a top five offensive line, particularly like it hinges on the tackles, obviously. But I don't know. That's not weird for me to think about. And you get a guy like HN running behind that type of unit. And yeah, Jordan Tyson looks really fun early on. I don't know. I just, I've spent some of my week daydreaming about a really, really good Saints offense while I was watching training camp clips.

1:15:44Robert Mays: Kind of there too. I'm kind of there too. Again, it's very half-baked, but I can see it. I can see the vision, and it is partially rooted in just watching Jordan Tyson move around, which I know is stupid and ridiculous, but that's the time of the offseason that we're in right now is being stupid and ridiculous. Speaking of, I have one more very quickly. Dak is my favorite MVP vet.

1:16:08Dave Helman: That's like I'm fully baked on that one. Yeah, 100%.

1:16:11Robert Mays: He's like 13 to 1. He has like the seventh best odds. let's go I'm just I'm like fully in on the on the Cowboys offense just being an absolute machine and this being the year where obviously he did it in 23 but we all knew it was kind of fake and this being the year where it doesn't feel fake where it really does feel like they can just roll people and he's just in command the entire year it's like oh man this is the late career Dak year like finally getting his flowers like I it's not hard for me to get there and I I think if you look at the odds in comparison, everybody else, like I think he might be my favorite bet on the board.

1:16:48Dave Helman: And I think I love this because I think everyone's favorite MVP or like superstar blow up bet is either Dak, obviously with what they got cooking or Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The difference to me is like, I'm not doing that. You need a little bit more things to go right. You need more things to go right for you if the Chargers like you need the offensive line to come together. They're like, even if Mike McDaniel is great, like the pass catchers, you're still hoping for some things to go right. You don't really need any more proof of concept with what Dallas is like. You know that Dak can play at an MVP level and he has the two best receivers he's had his entire career.

1:17:22Dave Helman: If the offensive line is five percent better and healthier, like why? How could he why would he not be in the MVP conversations? This must be a success.

1:17:32Robert Mays: It's a team. It's team success. I guess you need to win 13 games to do it.

1:17:37Derrik Klassen: this is how maize feels when we talk about the bears living up to expectations like y 'all are just trying to drag me into believing all this nonsense about the cowboys maybe i won't have a

1:17:47Robert Mays: choice i feel like i'm getting there too and again one of the 10 000 teams i want to put into the postseason the dallas cowboys so when we get there i don't want to step on too much of the thought process for each individual team because that's what the table is going to be for the The seat at the table conversation is going to be excruciating. Excruciating. It's coming, by the way.

1:18:10Dave Helman: Because to your point, when we got to the end last year, we were fighting between the Texans and the Vikings. Even though we were fighting for the 10th spot, I don't think either of us probably really felt that they were going to win the Super Bowl. It was just like they deserve to be there. I do feel like we're going to get to 10 this year and be like, I think that team can do it. It's going to be different.

1:18:28Robert Mays: I think that's absolutely right. So I'm already dreading that conversation slash really looking forward to it. It's a little combination of both. All right. That's all we got for today. As Derek said earlier, we got some DNA changers on tomorrow's show. These guys are going to hold it down. I'm going to be in Atlanta all day. If you guys are not checking out the training camp content that we're putting out, there's a lot of it. I would love if you'd go watch some of it. We interviewed Matthew Stafford last week. Really fun conversation with him. Our discussion with Dayon Henley is now on the YouTube channel.

1:18:59Robert Mays: We've got another player interview coming a little bit later this week from one of our stops. I've got notebooks, little stray observations and thoughts based on my conversations coming from every single one of these places. We've got 21 of them total that we'll have by the end of the offseason. Our beat writer notebooks are running on Saturdays now. Our first one ran last Saturday. Joe Person from the Panthers, John Machoda from the Cowboys, Nate Atkins from the Rams. And then we'll have another one next week. Obviously, I mean, I was in Seattle, chatted with Michael Sean, going to be in Atlanta tomorrow, chatting with Josh Kendall a little bit, Washington after that.

1:19:36Robert Mays: So got tons of stuff coming your way. It's one of my favorite times of the year. I'm having a blast. Hopefully we can give you guys a little bit of a window into what this period is like for me, what's going on, and shine a little bit of light on what these teams are thinking and where they're at at this point in the calendar. So please be checking that stuff out. We'll be coming to you each day for the rest of the week and on Saturday. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

1:20:06Robert Mays: If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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