How long can an NFL team sustain an elite defense?

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1:39Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert May. It's another Mailbag Monday here in the offseason. Been a couple weeks since I've done one of these. Very excited to get back to it. As always, sincerely appreciate everyone who sent in questions, either via the Discord or email. Speaking of the Discord, as you may know, we launched a merch store back in February. we've heard many opinions from our discord members on the merch. And so we have good news for you that we'll be able to share soon. So be sure that you're in the discord. If you want those merch opinions heard and maybe more than just heard.

2:08Robert Mays: So there's a link in the discord in the show description. In the meantime, go check out the merch store that you can find online with the athletic football show for now. Let's get to this week's mailbag with me, Michael Beller and Dave Hellman. Let's get to it.

2:31Robert Mays: It's another mailbag Monday here on the athletic football show. We are now in the teeth of the off season. This is our first Monday post draft. I haven't been on one of these in a couple of weeks. Now, Dave, you guys handled the one right before the draft. And then we had the draft last week. So it's fun to be back in the mailbag world. I'm going to say it's, it's good to have you back. You're going to be reading the questions as normal. We've got about eight of them today. As always, sincerely appreciate everyone who took the time to send one of these in. Let's just get to it. Let's get to it.

3:01It starts with Sam Butler. Sam says, with the draft going on, I was thinking about a hypothetical. If you took the first player selected at each position in any given draft year and made a team out of them, which draft class would field the best team? As an example, he said 2024. So Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, Ashton Gentry, Joe Walt, Jared Burse, et cetera. In addition, how would that team fare in the league? worst near the bottom middle the pack maybe near the top what do you guys think Robert what do you

3:25Robert Mays: got on this one first of all I just realized that I put all my notes in the shared document which I apologize for that's not what I meant to do but just all good there I this was actually there weren't as many candidates as I thought there would be because uh there are so many years where the first quarterback drafted just isn't a good player and so it really did some quick elimination, some quick pruning. The ones I felt I landed with, 2024, I did not dig into as deeply. That was the example. I think as I look at them, I went back to like 2010, essentially like since the new CBA when I started covering the league.

4:05Robert Mays: I think it's between 2021 and 2011. I think those are the two contenders here.

4:12Derrik Klassen: Did you have any other ones, Dave? So 2011 is the obvious answer, and I feel like it just comes up all the time. And for good reason, though. I mean, you just run down the list of 2011. I mean, right off the bat, Cam Newton, A.J. Green and Julio Jones, Tyron Smith at offensive tackle. You got Von Miller and J.J. Watt on your defensive line. Marcel Darius on the interior. Patrick Peterson. I mean, need I go on? I mean, obviously any draft is going to have some weak spots, but 2011 really was as loaded as, as we say it was. And so I, I do think that's the easy answer. I've got, I got a couple outside the box ones though, if you want to get weird with it.

4:58Robert Mays: I think 2021 has like a solid argument. I think 2021, like you could actually make a real argument for it because I think you could make a case that if Elijah Vera Tucker can stay healthy, the offensive line for the 2021 group is better than the offensive line for the 2011 group because 2011 you're five offensive linemen and you can kind of you fudge the positions a little bit here yeah you have tyron guys have flexibility yeah and so like you have to right because i get sometimes the first center isn't drafted until whenever so i'm not going to dig into like the third round of these drafts as i go through this 2020 2011 you'd have tyron smith and nate soldier as your tackles, which fine.

5:38Robert Mays: But then your guards are Danny Watkins, which I was curious, how do we handle stuff like that? Like Danny Watkins, Alex Leatherwood, are they just the versions of the players they were in the NFL? As we play out this exercise, that's a tougher one to kind of figure out.

5:52Derrik Klassen: I mean, I think they have to be for the purposes of something like this. I think, yes. And that's what makes it fun is you have to go along with what we've seen. You can't project a better reality for those guys as much as we might want to.

6:06Robert Mays: So that's so at offensive line, Danny Watkins, Stefan Wisniewski would be one of your other guards. And then Rodney Hudson was actually a pretty early drafted center there. So you could have Rodney Hudson linebackers on that team. Akeem Ayers and Bruce Carter, which, you know, the other outside corner would be Prince of Mookamara. Pretty sure he was the second cornerback drafted, which that's solid. But it's not like it's a team full of all pros. My favorite one, who was the third wide receiver drafted in 2011 was?

6:33Derrik Klassen: Not off the top of my head. No.

6:35Robert Mays: So AJ Green and Julio, obviously, were the first two, which that's a pretty good start. It's a nice place to start. Third wide receiver off the board that year, Jonathan Baldwin. So in 11 personnel, Jonathan Baldwin would be a starter for you here.

6:49Derrik Klassen: We're playing 12 personnel, baby.

6:51Robert Mays: Well, the tight ends, I mean, there weren't any tight ends drafted until, like, deep into this draft. Okay, but you got Kyle Rudolph. Kyle Rudolph and Lance Kendricks is actually like, you could probably survive with that now that I look at it. Absolutely you could. quietly, we talk about the 2011 draft being like this incredible draft, which obviously it was the second round is tough. There are, there are not a lot of like long-term starters in the second round of that draft. Obviously you have the quarterbacks at the top with Dalton and Kaepernick. Got some real throwback names here. Jabal Sheard who had like a really decent career, but there's a lot of guys who just didn't do much as NFL players.

7:31Robert Mays: Like Ben Angelana was the second round pick by the Colts that year. Daquan Bowers, Marvin Austin, Jaquan Jarrett, the DB for the Eagles, Mikel LaShore. I mean, there are some zeros here. Jonas Mouton, I don't even remember who that was. He has zero career weighted AV as a second round pick for the Chargers that year in 2011.

7:52Derrik Klassen: This is really, as so many of our questions are, it's just a great exercise in like remember some guys, Remember some names that you said a lot 15 years ago that you haven't thought of in quite some time.

8:04Robert Mays: So here's my argument for 2021. Trevor's the quarterback, which I think that's a perfectly fine starting point. Kyle Pitts is your tight end. Your receivers on the 2011 team or 2021 team are Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddell, and Devontae Smith. And your offensive line, you have Alex Leatherwood in there. So that's a question. We'll play him at guard. We'll mask it up. It's fine. And Atlanta Dickerson was a center in college. And so if you want Landon Dickerson to be your center there with Elijah Vera Tucker and Alex Leatherwood, you could theoretically do that. Your edges on that team are Micah and Jalen Phillips.

8:36Robert Mays: Your corners are Pat Sertan and JC Horn. The spine of the defense gets a little bit worse. Jamin Davis was the first linebacker drafted that year. Richie Grant was the second safety. And then Levi Onzerike would be your second interior player. But the strengths of that team are very high in 2021.

8:54Derrik Klassen: I thought Richie Grant was going to do something, man. I thought he was going to be the next. He would the truth. No. And we had a question while you were out. That was like, why aren't drafts good anymore? And I was like, 2021 was amazing. 2021 was incredible draft. 2024 was also a really good draft.

9:14Robert Mays: Like Malik neighbors was the sixth pick in 2024.

9:17Derrik Klassen: That was the other answer to our question. Okay. I've got a couple, I got a couple outside the box ones though. For starters, you probably wrote this off because the quarterback is not sexy. But if you're going for quantity, quantity over quality sounds mean. But like if you're just going for a big grab bag of good players, 2018 is not bad. 2018 is on my list. So Baker, he's a good quarterback. He's not the sexiest option. But you've got Baker. Then let's just go down the line. Saquon Barkley. You got Denzel Ward at corner Bradley Chubb at end your offensive line in this draft class would be Quentin Nelson, Mike McGlinchey, Colton Miller, Frank Ragnow.

10:01Derrik Klassen: You could play Billy Price at guard if you wanted to, or you could have Will Hernandez be your other guard, your wide receivers. Your top two wide receivers would be DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley. You'd have Roquan. Corlin Sutton would be your third one.

10:14Robert Mays: That's a really nice trio.

10:15Derrik Klassen: Actually, there you go. You got But you got Tremaine Edmonds and Roquan Smith playing linebacker. You got Vita Veya and Daron Payne at defensive tackle. Like, like I said, the Jair Alexander would be your other corner opposite Denzel Ward. Like this is the quarterback is not sexy, but you would just have a deep, deep team.

10:35Robert Mays: If you took 2018, 2018 is one I absolutely was going to throw out there. I have one other sneaky one that I was more impressed by than I thought I would be when I actually dug back into it. go look at 2010 let's like pretend Sam Bradford right let's pretend let's just say Sam Bradford's healthy in this exercise like Sam Bradford went healthy was a good NFL quarterback so then you go through the rest of the first round your two wide receivers are Demarius Thomas and Dez Bryant were the two earliest receiver picks in that draft the offensive line Russell Okung, Mike Ayupati, Roger Saffold, Marquise Pouncey, and Trent Williams.

11:14Robert Mays: CJ Spiller was the first running back drafted in that draft, which what a time to be alive. Your defense, my favorite part of this one, two of the top five picks in that draft were defensive tackles. It'd be Sue and Gerald McCoy. The edges on that team are Brandon Graham and JPP, Joe Hayden and Kareem Jackson at corner. Linebacker is kind of a very much a remember this time sort of thing with Rolando McClain and Sean Weatherspoon, which Sean Weatherspoon was deeply important to my life. And Rolando McClain was good.

11:45Derrik Klassen: Rolando McClain, when he wanted to be, was electric.

11:50Robert Mays: And the safeties on that team are Eric Berry and Devin McCourty. Yeah.

11:55Derrik Klassen: 2010 was another one that I circled while I was doing this. And I've got one more. And I need you. You can't cut me off. Don't cut me off because there's a very obvious flaw in my plan when I say this. then you're going to know immediately. But I don't think we give quite enough credit to the 2007 draft class for just producing some amazing, amazing players. It was an incredible draft, but you have a very big problem. There is one big problem. But like, okay, if my wide receiver trio is Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr., and Dwayne Bowe, and I've got Joe Thomas playing tackle and Joe Staley playing the other side.

12:40Derrik Klassen: And I've got Adrian Peterson at running back. Maybe Jamarcus Russell being my quarterback's not the end of the world. And my defense would have Patrick Willis and Darrell Revis on it. I mean, after a certain point, doesn't all-time talent overcome a quarterback deficiency? I don't think to that extent, unfortunately.

12:59Robert Mays: That's why I dismissed 2007 pretty quickly. I think my answer here is 2021. I think that's the best one. Cause I do think that there, the 2011 draft produced, I think more high level players in terms of like all like whole fame type talents. But I think top to bottom, I like the 2021 offense better with the offensive line and with the receivers and like Trevor and cam, I think, you know, you give the edge to cam, but Trevor's not Jamarcus Russell in something like this. And then the corners and the edge rushers are phenomenal. And so I think it's 2021. The answer, the question that Sam asked about where they would rank in the league, it still wouldn't be a very good team.

13:37Robert Mays: Like you still have massive holes in a bunch of different position groups. And I think that's actually interesting to learn. When you go back through this, there's no draft where every position produced a really good player early in the draft. That just doesn't happen.

13:50Derrik Klassen: It reminds me a lot of international soccer teams where, you know, the like the best international soccer countries like France and Argentina and England and the Netherlands and Spain. They like it, like half of it's a who's who of the biggest stars in soccer, like eight of the 11 are these household names, these amazing players. But most countries have at least one or two positions where it's like, yeah, but that guy plays in the second division in his country. Like, that's not what you want. And that's why for the most part, the top club teams would beat the shit out of the top international teams, unless you just have like a generational team, like the 2010 Spain teams is an exception to that.

14:33Derrik Klassen: But yeah, that's a fun thing with international soccer too. It felt very similar to me.

14:37Robert Mays: I think they're like a 500 team, no matter which draft you choose, even the best ones. I think that's probably where I would land. All right, Bella, what's our next one here? Hey, speaking of what Dave just brought up, World Cup right around the corner, get all your coverage right here at The Athletic. Trent Marsh. Man, look at that. Question right here. If memory serves, around the time Nick Foles took the Eagles to the Super Bowl, Howie Roseman was quoted as saying they treat the backup quarterback as a starting position. In light of the draft and the pearl clutching and hand-wringing I've seen, it has me wondering if some teams don't think of some other positions that way as well.

15:07Many of the talking heads, Tafts accepted of course, were losing their minds as tight ends came off the board a round or two earlier than expected while wide receivers waited to hear their names called. Is the second or third tight end moving into that 24th starter role behind the nickel as the 23rd starter with Sean McVay and Ben Johnson leading the charge on 13 personnel and that offensive approach being the new hotness in the league? Dave, you take this one first.

15:29Derrik Klassen: I love this question. And I actually, my approach to this was to fixate on what we're seeing from tight end and see if I could get a gauge on just how realistic this is. Because it's easy for us to talk so much about the Rams running 13 personnel and teams are drafting so many tight ends on day two of this most recent draft. And so I was, I was curious if it's really skewing that way around the league. and my finding is probably so and the two big numbers that I wanted to put here over the last decade from 20 so from 2016 to 2020 NFL teams were averaging 185 snaps of 12 personnel per year and from 2021 to 2025 that number has jumped to 216 snaps per year.

16:25Derrik Klassen: So you're seeing a pretty sizable jump around the league in the number of snaps that multiple tight ends are on the field. And it's funny, going back to when I started covering the league and when I was a beat writer, at least around the teams I covered, 13 personnel just felt like such an afterthought. Like maybe you use it as jumbo personnel or goal line personnel, but it's not something that you expected to see on a regular basis from a lot of teams. And from 2016 to 2020, the NFL average was 36 snaps of 13 personnel per season, which kind of bears out what I'm talking about. And it hasn't changed a ton, but it's up to 43 snaps over the last five years.

17:11Derrik Klassen: And this past year, it obviously really blew up. A big part of that is the Rams leading the way with more than 300 snaps of 13 personnel. But I thought this was really interesting, Robert. Over the last nine seasons through 2024, an average of only nine teams in the NFL ran more than 50 snaps of 13 personnel. And so, like, if you don't even run 50 snaps of a personnel grouping, I don't consider it like a core part of your offense. this past year, half the league used 13 personnel 50 or more times. Like the numbers shot up to a pretty striking degree. And so I'm really excited to see how much of that was jumping on the Rams coattails and how many teams are planning to be using that moving forward.

18:01Derrik Klassen: And from the activity we saw in the draft, I would say a lot of teams are gearing up to do that type of stuff. So I agree with the sentiment that tight end is becoming like, like your number two tight end is like becoming an extra starter. Where does it rank in terms of your extra starters? I guess that's, that's the question, right? I, I, I think you're right. I'm looking at your answers in the notes. I think nickel is still probably more important, but after that, I think it's becoming more of a conversation than it used to be.

18:35Robert Mays: for some reason I can't find the jumbo rates. I'm trying to look back through and next-gen right now because beyond the 13 personnel stuff that you're talking about, I mean, we're at a place where there's so much jumbo being played around the league. And I think part of that is if you look at like the sequencing of how this has happened with other teams, the Bills were a huge jumbo team in 2024. And then they draft Jackson Hawes. They move away from being a jumbo team to being more of a heavy, you know, 12, 13, 21, 22 personnel team. And I think a lot of teams, you want to be able to do that in part because the jumbo thing allows you to dictate to offenses or allows you to dictate to defenses.

19:13Robert Mays: You know, you're getting base out of that, but that six offensive linemen is not a pass catching threat whatsoever. At least you can dump the ball off to a blocking tight end. So I think we'll see more teams transition away from the jumbo stuff. So that number that you said about the 13 personnel, I still don't even think is indicative of where teams want to go with it because I could see more teams transitioning away from the jumbo stuff to using another tight end.

19:36Derrik Klassen: I agree. Yeah, it seems like just looking at the numbers, it's not a huge sample size, but I think that trend is going to continue to go that way based on what we've seen over the last two or three years.

19:48Robert Mays: If you look at it, so I think the percentages, and obviously this makes sense, these are going to be aligned. Teams were in base defense about 27 % of the time last year. Teams had two or three tight ends on the field about 27 % of the time last year. So I would say right now, I don't even think the nickel is your 23rd starter. The nickel is your 22nd starter. That's like a 65 % rate at this point in the NFL. And nickel is a starting player. Like your third linebacker is now arguably your 23rd starter. And I think the second, third tight end probably slots in. I'd say at your second tight end is behind your nickel.

20:24Robert Mays: And then your third linebacker is probably behind that second tight end. and your third tight end to me falls somewhere between. At this point, I think an interesting conversation would be a back to handle passing downs or a third tight end, which would you prioritize in terms of how you're building your offense? I think what's happened over the last year would lead you to believe it's your third tight end.

20:51Derrik Klassen: It's a cop out, but I feel like it depends on the players. I think, but I do the way things are trending. If it's, if it's a good third tight end who can give me a little something in both aspects of things, like as a blocker and a receiver, I think I'd rather have that at this point in time. Yeah.

21:09Robert Mays: I mean, I would say your nickel is your 23rd. Let's say your second tight end is your 24th starter. Your third linebacker, let's say is your 25th starter. And then I can think you can make an argument that your third tight end now slots in right after that with like your, your passing down back. And by passing down back, I truly mean like the guy you trust to handle pass protection like that, that, that being like a really important thing. But I'd say that, and maybe even like, and then a DPR type, I wonder where that falls in. I mean, that, I think you'd make an argument falls behind third linebacker in front of third tight end, but I think they're all kind of bunched together there.

21:45Robert Mays: And then the one spot I would say that I think teams should do a better job of accounting for because the transition between your starters and your backups is just untenable in a lot of ways is swing tackle like I think that should be one where like I just don't know if you can go into a season with certain guys as your swing tackle anymore that's why I

22:05Derrik Klassen: always push back on people who don't want to draft a tackle highly because there's quote unquote not a need and not the Rams like to tie Simpson enough to draft him but if they had used that pick on a non quarterback, I think I would have felt better about a tackle than a receiver, to be honest with you, given what they have invested in weapons and pass catchers and what the state of their offensive line looks like, like over investing in a third offensive tackle does not bother me at all. And I don't know if you could use a big time draft pick on this, but I would say the same thing about a swing interior offensive lineman, like a guy that can play center and guard who's like your your sixth dude who maybe isn't even active every week i think that's incredibly valuable too just because the drop-off can be that severe you can

22:54Robert Mays: get that guy in the fourth round though right no that's the difference that's like you can get that guy in the same range as you used to be able to draft your blocking tight ends which you can't

23:01Derrik Klassen: anymore you have to draft him 55th overall you still don't want that guy to be an afterthought

23:06Robert Mays: is my only point but yeah i i think teams using those like late day two early day three picks on those interior offensive line depth moves is never something that you regret. Like that's often something that you're going to feel good about as you look at the state of the roster, but that's luxury. Like being able to use those sorts of picks on depth, depth pieces on the interior, the offensive line is a little bit of a luxury. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and hit a few more of these questions. This episode is sponsored by better help. Life is a journey. Some days feel good and others can feel overwhelming.

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26:47All right, guys, we come out of break with one from Brian Geiger. Brian says, after the draft, you guys discussed the type of prospects that hit a QB later in drafts, noting that it's usually not the guys that have elite physical traits, pointing to Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins as examples. Does this logic hold true for other positions where maybe the guys that hit late aren't your physical freaks that failed for other reasons in college, but are instead the guys that lack the typical traits but succeeded regardless? Antonio Brown ran at 4 '5", 740 at 5 '10". Puka was taller but also failed to run well.

27:18What do you think here, Robert?

27:20Robert Mays: I love this question. It was actually really fun to go back and look at some of this. I restricted it to guys picked outside of the top 100 because I think those are like your later round dart throws. There are also some very obvious examples of players drafted in the third round that were these physical freaks that put it all together. Tron Armstead comes to mind. Daniil Hunter comes to mind. So I think that is probably the third round is a cutoff of where you're going to be taking swings and hitting on some of these traits-y guys who have to develop. Outside of that top 100, I had like three or four different buckets that I think a lot of these guys fall into.

27:57My favorite one by far is just somebody who has a unique physical trait.

28:02Robert Mays: And there's a bunch of these guys. Or they're deficient some way physically. So it's either you're betting on an outlier with what they're bringing to the table because it's on the high end, or it's on the low end and you can get this guy because he was an outlier in some way. So this bucket of players, Geno Atkins, Incredibly small, stubby defensive tackle. Was a phenomenal player for the Bengals for a long time. Richard Sherman and Brandon Marshall. Exact opposite end of the spectrum. Where you have these like big hulking players at receiver and corner. Brandon Marshall is a 99th percentile weight and height guy at receiver.

28:38Robert Mays: Kyle Williams from the Bills. 30 and a half inch arms. Marcus Colston. What is Marcus Colston? Right? It's a tight end. It's your receiver. Robert Mathis and Elvis Dumerville. Extremely small. And so these guys that fell because they don't hit normal thresholds in terms of size, but ended up becoming really, really good players. Small school guys is a bucket from this range. Jari Evans, Jared Allen, Max Crosby, Roberto Garza, Antoine Bethea, Jermon Bushrod. All guys who came from lower level competition and that pushes them down the draft. A lot of offensive linemen because there are guys that can have zero physical traits and succeed being an offensive lineman.

29:18Robert Mays: you know the ryan deems of the world people like that there's a ton of those examples the three guys that are arguably other than tom brady like three of the top 10 players trapped outside of the top of the first three rounds in the last 20 years digs tyreek antonio brown different sort of conversation it's a a whole the whole lot of factors go into those guys going where they wound up going correct they're small right i think that's the three line people would draw. I think Stefan Diggs, Tyree Kill, and Antonio Brown lasted into the fourth, into the fifth round and beyond for reasons that go beyond their size.

29:57Robert Mays: I just, I wonder what you could possibly be referring to. Yeah. So that's, and then Puka is an interesting one. I think Puka is another guy who has like a weird superpower, like the toughness that Puka brings to the table, I think makes him a very different and unique player compared to a lot of other guys, even if that's something that's a little bit harder to tangibly measure. But those are the buckets that I landed on. I really enjoyed going back through all of that, by the way.

30:23Derrik Klassen: I mean, I, I overlapped with you in a lot of ways. You said offensive lineman, David Bakhtiari is just always going to be a guy that comes to mind in that conversation, like a guy who fell to the fourth round because his size and workout numbers are not overly impressive. Running back is an easy one to do, but Devante Freeman was five, eight and ran like a four, six, 40 yard dash. So it's no surprise that he doesn't go super high in the draft. Grady Jarrett was six one. And that's like the main reason he fell to the fifth round of the draft. The Gino Atkins general tier. I know you said, uh, outside the top 100, but a guy who went inside the top 100, who probably would have gone even higher than he did is my guy, Jarvis Landry, who his, his mock draftable graft is just like a period.

31:14Derrik Klassen: Like there's just nothing. There's nothing outstanding physically about him. He was just a good football player and his tape was good enough to get him drafted in the sixties, but probably drafted a hell of a lot higher if he was faster or more explosive in any way whatsoever. Yeah.

31:33Robert Mays: A lot of those guys that are just like, that guy's just good at football, like especially at receiver. A lot of those guys were like second round picks. Like if you look at the best comparisons for physically for Jarvis Landry, One of them is Robert Woods. Robert Woods was not in any sort of testing metric. Woods was not above the 50th percentile in anything, but really good player. Second round pick. Great career.

31:55Derrik Klassen: One thing I do, I saw your note and talking about the small school guys, which like over the course of time or like going back in time, I think that is a very good thing to bring up. But I do. Well, a couple of things. A, it feels like the small school player is going away in the NIL era because 90 % of guys who can play are getting offers to go play at a bigger program. And like Emmanuel McNeil-Warren was the only prospect of much consequence who didn't play for a Power 4 program. So there's that.

32:30Robert Mays: You count them on one hand from this draft. It was like Ted Hurst, Caleb Proctor, and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren are like, they stick out like a sore thumb because that just doesn't happen very much anymore.

32:39Derrik Klassen: But what I do think is interesting is more and more recently, like while I've been covering drafts, NFL teams just seem to have a lot more confidence about guys like that when the opportunity does arise. Like I'm thinking specifically about Ali Marpet, who played at Hobart and was pick 61. And then Kyle Duggar played at Lenore Rhine and was pick 37. And so, I don't know, call it confidence, call it analytics. But if NFL teams believe in a guy, they don't give a shit where what what the stadium looked like or what the competition looked like. Like teams have been willing to draft guys like that highly if they're deeply convicted about it, which I just think is interesting because, you know, I wouldn't blame a team for not wanting to take a chance on somebody who's playing future insurance salesman on Saturdays.

33:38Derrik Klassen: That's a scary proposition, but apparently not if you're talented enough.

33:41Robert Mays: I think that now with GPS testing, there's a way to level the playing field, and there's an objective measure about how fast guys are moving. That was the Cooper Cup thing, right? He's playing at Eastern Washington. He ran a 4, 6, whatever, 40, but we see how fast he plays, and so we're willing to take a swing on somebody like that.

33:56Derrik Klassen: Cooper Cup went to the senior bowl and spent three days dunking on everyone there and I was like okay I don't care where you played football let's get to the next one Bauer all right this one comes to us from Dimer over on discord Dimer says has anyone held on to a top five defense for more than two to three years between cornerback volatility injuries and contracts it seems very hard to do I think we could all see the Texans being very good this year but what about 2027-2028 taking into account historical inconsistency on the defensive side of the ball is the Texans window more immediate than we might be thinking right now.

34:30What do you say on this one, Robert?

34:31Robert Mays: I looked at the historical examples of teams that have done this, and there are a ton of them, right? Like, I think exactly what Dimer is talking about here, and now I'm calling people by their Discord names on the Milbeck shows. What Dimer is talking about here is an example to me, a good example is like you look at the 2015 Broncos, where they were a really good defense for like two years, then they're back to 22nd. And we see that happen a lot, and I think it's a really good thing to point out. But there are examples of teams that did have very good sustained success. And they're some of the best defenses historically that we've seen over the last like two decades.

35:04Robert Mays: The Ravens were top 10 in points allowed 11 times in 12 years. Which is crazy. 11 times in 12 years, the Ravens were top 10 in points allowed from I think 1999, whatever 12 years from 1999 is. the one down year the one year they finished outside of the top 10 and points allowed they were 11th in epa per play on defense and so that's just an incredible stretch that lasts over a decade the bucks were top 10 points allowed every year between 1996 and 2005 every single year which is also wild the legion of boom did it six years in a row the steelers finished in the top 12 nine years in a row in the mid-2000s.

35:46Robert Mays: They were in the top three in six of those nine years. And so it doesn't, it's hard to do. It's very hard to sustain success in this way on that side of the ball. But we have seen teams do it for an extended period of time. And so what year is this going to be for the Texans? We're on year like three of the defense being that good? Three, four, five, yeah. Will Anderson was drafted in 2023. So So three, four, five. So this would be the fourth year in a row that the defense has been really, really good. I know it's hard to sustain that level of success. I don't think it's crazy. Like, I think that you can probably continue to do it if you're the Texans for at least another year or two.

36:26Derrik Klassen: Do you think it's fair to draw a through line through the teams that you listed and point out that they were building around future Hall of Famers for most of those runs? like the Ravens filling in the gaps around Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed for a decade. That's easier to do. The Steelers had James Harrison and Troy Palamalu. That's easier to do. Obviously, the Seahawks had Sherman and Earl and Chancellor and Wagner. And so, like, if you have those foundational pieces, I think it's easier to do. And a note I wanted to make as well, thinking about the Seahawks in particular, when you have those hall of fame caliber players, it's easier to forget about all the other stuff that has to go right.

37:13Derrik Klassen: And all of the transitions that have to be smooth to not notice a downturn, like the beginning of the Legion of Boom Seahawks, Seattle was number one in scoring defense in 2012. And that was before Michael Bennett or Cliff Averill got there, right? They transitioned from Brandon Brown, Browner to Byron Maxwell at one point during that run to those Superbowls. You got to be able to successfully replace those sorts of players while continuing to get the Hall of Fame caliber play. So my my answer to the Texans thing is, what do you think about? I mean, Daniel Hunter's already got a Hall of Fame case.

37:51Derrik Klassen: So how much longer is he going to play at that level? What do you think about Will Anderson? Do you think he's his arrow is still up and he's going to keep playing at this level? I'd probably throw. Yeah, no, so do I for sure. and I'd probably throw Derek Stingley in there as well. So if those three guys are your rising tide, it can lift a lot of boats. And then we'll obviously see what they prioritize. They just extended Aziz Alshair earlier this week, but how long do Jalen Petrie and Kalen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter play in this defense? And when the time comes to replace them, how good of a job do you do?

38:31Derrik Klassen: I think that's going to be the answer to the question. But if they continue to draft the way that they have, and Will Anderson stays healthy and keeps playing like Will Anderson, I absolutely think the Texans can be this caliber of defense for five, six more years. I think that's realistic. And if I'm a Texans fan, I'm leaning on the fact that Nick Casario and D 'Amico Ryans have overseen the acquiring of all of this talent and say, all right even if you're not going to be right 100 of the time the track record's pretty good that you can keep bringing these sorts of players into the team i also like and i would have to go

39:09Robert Mays: back and think but the michael bennis shot is a good one how have these teams had these little tiny pivot moments that have made them slightly different versions of what they were before the cade mcdonald thing that's what that feels like to me where it's like we're going to go out and seek something that we've never really sought out before to kind of have this tiny transition from one thing to another, and does that allow us to stay kind of one half step ahead? And so my biggest question for them is mostly going to be what happens when Daniel Hunter is gone? Like, where does that replacement come from?

39:39Robert Mays: And the fact that they still haven't sought that out, we thought this might be the draft where it's like, all right, let's get our third edge rusher in there. Let's have some sort of succession plan. They did not do that. And so when that comes, I think that will be a very big moment. But, yeah, it is possible. And I think you do have to build it around those sorts of talents. I do think they have a couple of special talents as those kind of gravitational players as part of that plan. All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and hit a couple more of your questions.

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41:42Okay, next question is from Ethel Beavers. Ethel says, what are some potential non-star trades you guys could see prior to week one based on how the draft shook out? For example, I think we've talked about this one coming up a little bit. The Bears drafted a 24-year-old highly ranked center in the second round while the Ravens missed out on the position entirely. Could Garrett Bradbury potentially be a target for a team like the Ravens? Dave, you take this one first.

42:05Derrik Klassen: I just, I don't appreciate the, like the pre-firing of Garrett Bradbury. I just want to say that for the record. But yeah, I mean, I think Robert and I talked about it on a show earlier this week. I think the Ravens looking for a potential starting center is something that absolutely feels like it needs to happen. I threw out Joe Tippman earlier this week, just as a guy who's on the last year of his rookie deal. Maybe if the Jets feel comfortable with that, maybe they'd rather keep adding to their war chest for 2027 than have a guy that they're not interested in extending. Tippman's got position flexibility.

42:40Derrik Klassen: just an idea that I had but I think you said it Robert like that is for teams that have real deal ambitions this year that is just one of the biggest holes remaining where you just look at it and you don't think the Ravens are going to go into the season with that as as the situation there aren't

42:59Robert Mays: that many names that really jumped out when I was looking back through it in terms of players who are going to be free agents in each of the next either of the next two years three guys that I landed on and I would actually throw out a fourth one, which is the same team, but similar thought process. Kayshawn Booty is somebody we've, we mentioned even like for the Raiders as like a potential outside receiver option. If they end up trading for AJ Brown, I think that's when I would throw out there, Marvin Mims, right. In a, in a Jalen Waddle world. Like if you wanted somebody that has a little bit of pop I think Marvin Mims after the Broncos traded for Jalen Waddle, does he become a little bit expendable?

43:35Robert Mays: And then two guys that throw out on the Raiders offensive line, just because multiple different regimes, they've had a lot of moving parts there. Jordan Meredith gave them some decent snaps two years ago, and is he the odd man out in terms of interior offensive line depth there? That's somebody that can play a little bit of center if you wanted to call about that. That's a name we did not mention. And then similarly, I'd at least call about Jackson Powers Johnson. Interesting. He's had just like a weird stretch there where he's bounced around positions. It's a new coaching staff. I so I that's that's another one where I would be like what do we what do we think their new front

44:12Derrik Klassen: office so those are I guess I mean they've used they've used several draft picks on the interior offensive line the last couple years like if the new coaching staff feels good about those guys I guess that makes sense I guess he I mean he he should qualify as a star he was a first team all pro he was one of my favorite players last year but I don't think Jordan Brooks is a household name for the average NFL fan. And I don't know. I look at the Dolphins. They, they did everything they could to acquire all this draft capital. Jordan Brooks is, if he's not 30 yet, he's approaching 30 and he's in the last year of his deal.

44:51Derrik Klassen: I understand he's a wonderful player. He'd probably be a great guy for Jacob Rodriguez to learn from, but if somebody offers you something good for him, is Jordan Brooks still going to be at a viable age when the Dolphins are ready to do something meaningful i don't know and so you know i know the the cowboys traded for d winters during the draft but by no means is their linebacker depth chart good even still and like if i was dallas i'd still be calling the dolphins about that and being like you really won't take a three for a guy who's not gonna be there when you're ready to contend come on that's my pet cause of the summer yeah jordan brooks is a good one i mean there there aren't a ton of others that

45:34Robert Mays: immediately jump out. I'm sure there are plenty of players that I'm missing, but a lot of the guys who like are going to be free agents heading into next year, like in a typical situation, like Byron Young, right? Byron Young is slated to make a lot of money on his next contract with the Rams. He's heading into the final year of his deal. Is that somebody that, oh, why haven't they extended him yet? Do they want to extend him? Is that somebody we could pry away? The Rams aren't trading away Byron Young before this season, right? Like a lot of these teams are just, they're in a spot where they're trying to really push the pedal to the floor and win right now and so even if you're going to move on from a guy after the season which I don't think the Rams are necessarily but they have to pay Kobe Turner we've talked about this and typically these guys hitting free agency would they be worth a call and I think a lot of them are just on teams that they would rather go into the season with the uncertainty of them being in a lame duck year rather than getting

46:23Derrik Klassen: some sort of middling draft capital for them I guess he's been talked about a lot but Kayvon Thibodeau you know even the the Saints the Saints went a different route but maybe somebody else would want him like as of right now I mean they drafted the Lions drafted Derek Moore in the second round and that sounds awesome right now but are you gonna feel like that's enough as you get closer to football season if you're Detroit like is there is there a veteran that fits them that they would trade to acquire I don't know yeah again not a ton of other names that like

46:56Robert Mays: immediately jump out but i think those are like the four or five that i would say all right what's our next one bar okay our next one comes to us from limp biz quick just a great great discord handle limp says limp is quick has been on the show before they i don't want to attach a gender to limp is quick it could absolutely be a woman they they have asked some very good questions over the last couple months here they've been involved in multiple shows i i i think we've had limp is quick questions in our doc but i think we've pushed them out for various reasons i think this interesting okay great time it's actually there so here we go this reminds me of this reminds me of doing like of listening to fine bomb fine bombs like limp limp is quick in in chicago says this well this is then an appropriate question if it were listening to fine bomb because it concerns the qb1 in next year's draft class so maybe arch manning maybe dante boar whoever it might be if you are the QB1 in the 2027 draft as of right now this very moment would you rather the first pick belong to the Browns or the Jets Robert what do you think here it's an incredible question and so we just kind of talked about this yesterday when we were discussing whether we were buying or selling the Browns or Jets off seasons what talk about this on Friday's show you guys will be listening to this on Monday but

48:23Derrik Klassen: yeah that pause is good

48:30Derrik Klassen: I think

48:34Robert Mays: I think my answer is the Browns

48:39Derrik Klassen: what a ringing vote of confidence there Robert you said that as a question

48:44Robert Mays: it's not as though I think either of them is like a particularly disastrous place to land. I think they've actually both done a decent job of building up the potential infrastructure for the quarterback when they dropped them in the jets. I think you make a solid argument for the jets. Like, do you feel better about the tackle path for the jets than you do about the Browns? Fano would never seen him play in the NFL before. Obviously Titus Howard is, you know, Tice Howard's going to be, this is age 30 season. We talked to the Browns. I think they've gotten to their offensive line at an acceptable level with the moves they've made, but I don't think that it's a slam dunk by any stretch that that group is going to come together.

49:18Robert Mays: Their receivers in both groups, like I think Garrett Wilson is the best receiver among all six that you could throw out. The Browns receiving core is more of a theoretical idea at this point, but the Jets, who's going to be coaching the Jets in 2027? I have no idea. And so I'll be coaching the Browns in 2027. Are you a hundred percent confident it's Todd Monken? I'm not. And so I think it's hard to answer right now because there's so many questions about who's going to be in charge in both of those places. So if we're ascribing the same sort of uncertainty to the coaching staff. I'm curious, who do you think right now, if you're just stacking up the rosters, you would rather land on?

49:59Robert Mays: Because I think it's actually close.

50:00Derrik Klassen: Let me let me walk you through my thought process. And it is close. And you know what's great about this question? And I wonder if this is why limp is quick. Chose it. Chose these two teams to ask the, the uncomfortable blunt truth is that ownership for both of these teams scares the bejesus out of me.

50:18Robert Mays: So that's where I was going to go next is the decision makers and the stakeholders. Who would you be more confident in? It's, it's a hard question to answer too.

50:23Derrik Klassen: If I was like, if the way that I would answer this question is to go to ownership, like who's got the better track record. Who do I trust is not an insane person. And I, I looked at it and I was like, Oh, great. I have to make a Sophie's choice between Jets ownership and Browns ownership. And so if neither team has a has a. Edge in that department, then I'm strictly looking at roster and environment. And don't get me wrong. Bringing the Cleveland Browns to glory would be really special. And that fan base with a team to be proud of would be an amazing thing. But if we're looking at the current rosters, I think the pass catchers are close enough to being a wash.

51:08Derrik Klassen: And if I'm 22 years old coming into the league, like I don't care that much about Miles Garrett and the Browns defense, because by the time we're ready to get this thing rolling, Miles Garrett's going to be close to retirement anyway. I look at it and say, the Jets have two offensive tackles that I feel really good about, and they've invested in the offensive core around me. I think I can turn this Jets offensive ecosystem into something productive. And being a star quarterback in New York City sounds really, really fun. Like, if I can go to the Knicks. Yeah. If I'm good. And let's be honest. I don't know, man.

51:45Derrik Klassen: You don't want to sit courtside with Tina Fey, Timothy Chalamet, and Kendall Jenner? Kylie Jenner?

51:52Robert Mays: How many Jets quarterbacks have done that over the last 15 years? How many Knicks games have they been worth going to at that level before the last three or four years?

52:00Derrik Klassen: How many Jets quarterbacks have been good? That's what I'm saying, though.

52:03Robert Mays: And this is a place that's just shoot up and spit out so many different guys. That being said, the level of f***ing toxic discourse around the Browns quarterback situation. like it we don't talk about the cleveland media market as being as robust as a place like the jets but in terms of like the venom and the voraciousness that exists with the cleveland media like i it's i don't think it's necessarily an easy place to land either i think they're very similar in that regard but the jets have new york has chewed up and spit out a lot of guys go ask sam darnold and daniel jones how much they like playing quarterback in new york okay but you're

52:39Derrik Klassen: approaching this like a smart seasoned sports writer and podcaster who's been around the block if i'm qb1 and i'm 22 years old and i just won the heisman and i've got the world at my feet

52:51Robert Mays: i'm gonna go be the king of new york that's absolutely what i want to do and then ask those guys at 32 how they felt about being the king of new york at 22 i think they'd make some different decisions hey everything i think arch has got someone he could ask about that ah that's a great point, Beller. That's also true. Arch is more insulated from this stuff than a lot of other normal quarterbacks would be.

53:12Derrik Klassen: Everything we're saying about these teams used to apply to the Chicago Bears. Go ask Caleb Williams if he thinks it kicks ass having the city of Chicago at his feet. I bet he loves it. That's true. But Ben Johnson is walking through that door in Chicago,

53:27Robert Mays: and we don't know what's going to be happening.

53:29Derrik Klassen: We already established that there's not an obvious answer to this question. Like you're going to be dealing with some problems and some toxicity wherever you go. But the upside of being the savior of the New York Jets sounds really, really cool if you believe in yourself enough to think you can do it.

53:49Robert Mays: I think my answer is the Browns. Okay. I think that's partially rooted in how excited I am about the young players on the Browns. And there's a chance that just crashes and burns.

53:58Derrik Klassen: But this is just your Spencer Fano man crush is all this. I see Concepcion, Spencer Fano.

54:04Robert Mays: I also love Harold Fannin. Like, I just think that there are a lot of intriguing young pieces on the Browns. I think I'm going with the Browns. I want to be clear.

54:12Derrik Klassen: If there's no right answer, that also means there's no wrong answer. Like, I think the Browns. The Jets are always the wrong answer.

54:19Robert Mays: We'll see. All right. That is all we've got for today. Just a heads up. We're going to be doing these all throughout the offseason. I forgot to solicit questions this week. I won't forget next week. But just as a blanket disclaimer, just send in the questions. Please join the Discord. We're prioritizing a lot of questions from the Discord. So this is an easy chance to just be in the, we have an entire channel for mailbag questions. So you can constantly be populating that. And then the email is athleticfootballshow at gmail.com. You don't have to wait for me. If you've got a mailbag question over the course of the entire off season, shoot it to us because we will be checking that email regularly.

54:54Robert Mays: For those of you guys who sent questions in, sincerely appreciate it. That is all we've got for today. We will talk to you guys very soon. Thanks a lot. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time. I cannot tell a lie. My sinuses are blocked. George, you crossed the Delaware. You can cross congestion. Here, try clear. Ah, freedom. Smells like victory. Celebrate 250 years of American independence with better breathing. Use code AMERICA250 for 20 % off checkout at clear.com.

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