How much better—or worse—is each AFC team after the first wave of free agency?

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2:06Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mayes. Taking a step back and doing really one of our first bigger picture looks at all of the moves that have happened in free agency. Last year, we did an exercise where, as a lot of the dust had settled, we looked at every team in the league over the course of two shows, AFC, NFC, and asked a pretty simple but important question. Now that the first wave of free agency is over, how much better are these teams really? And that can be a complicated question with a complicated answer for some of these teams, even the ones that have spent a lot of money.

2:41Robert Mays: And so to help me sort through that, Derek Klassen joined me to talk about every single team today in the AFC. The ones that have spent big, the ones that haven't spent that much, and try to figure out how much better are these teams actually now that we're about a week into free agency and about two weeks into the bigger moves of the offseason. So we're talking about every AFC team today with me and Derek. Let's get to that conversation and that question right now.

3:14Robert Mays: All right, we're about a week into NFL free agency with things kicking off last Monday. And as a lot of the dust has settled, we wanted to try to start zooming out a little bit and just have some initial responses and big picture thoughts about what some of these free agent holes have looked like. Obviously, the necessary caveat here is we're not done. There's still plenty of players available in free agency. There are plenty of holes still to fill. And so you're going to have incomplete grades on what these classes look like for almost every single team. But we did this last year and it was a fun exercise and I wanted to run it back again.

3:48Robert Mays: Over the next two days, Derek, we're going to look at every single team in the NFL. We're doing AFC today, we're doing NFC tomorrow. And a week into free agency, we want to ask, when you take into account the losses, the gains, just the overall net acquisition of players, how much better are these teams really after the initial flurry of signings moves trades that we have seen so far so that's what we're going to try to answer today for all 16 teams in the AFC it's a good exercise because I think you you kind of do this as free agency is happening right like keeping the tally in your head but there are some teams you just like kind of lose it by the end of it or you're like oh I forgot they signed this guy or I forgot they lost this guy and then like there are a couple of teams here that like, I'll just spoil it a little bit.

4:35The Chiefs to me are going to be a weird team to talk about because it's like, okay, they've got some issues, but they have two first round picks now. So it's like how much of this is going to get solved? Like there are a couple of teams that the more I looked at them, the more I had, I think a trickier time actually trying to like pull it apart than I thought I was going to.

4:49Robert Mays: And there will be layers to every answer. I think the Chiefs are a really good example where you're going to have, okay, maybe they're not better today than they were at the start of free agency, but they weren't trying to be better today than they were at the start of free agency. And I think there are going to be several teams like that. You know, like the Bears, when we get there tomorrow, I've been thinking about it. It's like, they're not better today than they were a week ago, but you understand kind of how it happened that they arrived at this point. And so there's some nuance to the answer to these questions, even if the answer is they're not better or they're not as they're not significantly better or meaningfully better.

5:22Robert Mays: So let's just start running through these, obviously getting to 16 teams. I don't want to spend a ton of time on each individual one or in the preamble here. The way that I had these stacked up, and I don't know how your notes were, I just did it by spending. So we truly were the team that spent the most are at the top and we're just running all the way through it. So let's start with the Las Vegas Raiders. How much better are the Las Vegas Raiders on March 16th than they were when free agency opened on March 9th? I'm doing these I had mine by division, so if it takes me a minute to scroll to my teams.

5:53Don't worry about it. We probably should have talked about that in advance. But, okay, we're at my notes. I think they are one of the teams that is clearly better to me. Yes. Obviously, bringing in Linderbaum. Linderbaum plus the, like, Kubiak doesn't really count as free agency, but you put those two moves together, and I think the offensive line in general should be significantly better. And then I think adding Jalen Naylor is like that room needed anybody, so that's a nice little win. And then on defense, we'll see where all the Max Crosby stuff goes. But bringing Quidipe as like potentially a solid rotational guy or, you know, your starter, one of your big starters of Max Crosby is out there.

6:29And then probably one of the biggest jumps in linebacker quality of any team in the NFL. And I don't think they lost a whole ton like this to me is a pretty clear win offseason for the Raiders.

6:37Robert Mays: They didn't lose anybody. I mean, the only real guy they lost at this point was Kenny Pickett, especially if you're retaining Max Crosby. So you look at all the guys they added, and I think it's a combination of two things as to why it's easy to look at what the Raiders did and feel pretty good about it. It's the net gain of talent, which is undeniable, and they spent a lot of money in order to get it. But the guys they spent on, every single player they signed is a second contract free agent. So these are all guys that you hope can kind of be either the middle class of your roster in players like Quay Walker, N 'Kobe Dean, Jalen Naylor, Or in the case of Tyler Linderbaum, this is one of those where you're trying to pay for a difference maker in free agency, the likes of which don't often hit the market.

7:20Robert Mays: We can argue whether Tyler Linderbaum is one of those players, but the answer, the question you always try to ask when you're thinking about free agents and especially guys are going to get paid at the top of the market. Why are they free agents? With Tyler Linderbaum, the answer is easy. It's that the team didn't have the control to keep him in-house the same way that you might with a lot of other guys hitting the market just because the same levers aren't available to you when you're talking about a center. The fifth-year option wasn't exercised because he was a center. The franchise tag wasn't in play because he was a center.

7:50Robert Mays: And so you can get a satisfying answer to the question, why is he a free agent when it comes to Tyler Linderbaum? I don't know if that means you should blow out the market by 50 % in order to sign that guy, but we've talked about this a lot with the Raiders. even with Max Crosby coming back and even with the contracts they've handed out, they have$110 million in calf space in 2027. And I think an important consideration here all the time, we have the money, so let's spend it is not a good answer for why teams spend too much in free agency, but I think opportunity cost and what you are cutting off, the pathways you're cutting off when you sign these types of contracts have to be part of the discussion.

8:27Robert Mays: And with the Raiders, there aren't really any pathways they're cutting off And these are all young players you can build with. They're not cutting anything off. And like in the case of Linderbaum specifically, like you're trying to build the offense for the quarterback that you're about to put in there. Like I'm, we've said that a million times, but that's something I will spend a premium on in their particular case. They still have a ton of work to do. You know, those three other offensive line spots are questions. Obviously they drafted those two guys in the third round last year. The previous coaching staff had no interest in playing them for most of the season.

8:58Robert Mays: Maybe this coaching staff does. they still need another receiving option in my opinion. Like I think Naylor is a solid 2-3 and the hierarchy gets a little bit messed up because Bowers is a part of it. But most of the other guys they have, whether it's Bash or some of the speed guys, I still think like one more true outside presence is necessary like in the overall construction of this thing. And then on defense, they have so far to go when it comes to the other contributing pieces, even up front. You go sign Quiddy Pay, you bring back Max Crosby, you still need like two or three more guys on the interior that are young players.

9:34Robert Mays: I mean, there's a long, there's a big gap between where this roster is and where it needs to go. It's why they're picking first overall. And they were an abject disaster last year. But I think the question of how much better are they now compared to last week, it is better. And it's better in a way that I actually appreciate. I think there are good and bad ways to spend in free agency. And I don't mind the way that they did it. I don't either. The Naylor point is a good one. Like he's one of those where I don't think he stops you from like needing a receiver. They were just so, they needed guys so badly.

10:03And like, you don't know what you're going to get from a guy like Besh. And like, they just, they needed anybody. And so them adding him, I liked, I did like it.

10:09Robert Mays: Their guys are so specific, right? Like all the other receivers they have, the skill sets are so specific. And I think the selling point about Naylor is he's not specific at all. Like he can kind of do a little bit of everything at a competent level. And for this group specifically, like wanting a guy that's just like, He can play the Z, he can play outside, he can play inside. I think that type of addition at the price where they got him, it's not cheap, but it's also$10 million for a receiver in the world that we currently live in. We're about to talk about Wando Robinson. It's a fine price to pay when you're in the position that the Raiders are in.

10:44100%. Again, the 2-2 Atwell is the big one everyone talks about for receivers. The Rams paid 2-2 Atwell$10 million to not play. If they're going to pay him$10 million to be a useful player, pretty good value.

10:54Robert Mays: All right, let's talk about the other team in the AFC that spent big time over the last week. I'm curious where you're going to go with this one because I think this is a more complicated discussion. How much better are the Tennessee Titans today than they were a week ago? Here's the thing with a team like the Titans and answering this question. We have to divorce, are they better versus would I have done any of this? Yes. Because the answer to are they better is objectively yes. Like they, whatever I want to say about Wondell Robinson, like he is an upgrade. the defensive line has a lot of shuffling around but if we assume that JFM is about as good as Tavandra Sweat and will fit into the new system they've got a couple of other depth pieces now and then the secondary is miles and miles better than it was last year like their top three snap getters at corner last year were Daryl Baker, Jalen Armour Davis and LeJarius Sneed I looked up the exact same thing before we started recording I have the exact same list of players It's literally guys who are not going to start or emergency players for other teams.

11:57Robert Mays: Daryl Baker signed for like$2 million this week. Exactly. The market tells you, and the market told you what the league thinks of the starting corners that the Titans had last year. Elante Taylor is going to make more in a month than Daryl Baker makes all of next season. That tells you how the Titans tried to address this room. $1.4 million with the Dolphins. So essentially a minimum contract for Daryl Baker going to Miami that last weekend is what he signed. I don't disagree with any of that. And I think that we're having a lot of different conversations at the same time when it comes to the Titans in free agency.

12:31Robert Mays: And I agree with everything that you just said. Of course they're better. They have more usable NFL players. John Franco Myers is a good player. The guys they signed are starting caliber pieces in the secondary. Where I land with this is they're definitely better. But when I look at the Raiders signings, even guys, the linebackers specifically. I'm curious what you think about this. I see those signings as having more upside and runway than something like the Cordell Flott signing does. Like when I look at the Titans and I look at their multi-year financial outlook, they have an astronomical amount of cap space still in 2027.

13:10Robert Mays: And these are all contracts they'll be able to get out of in 2028. So that opportunity cost question, you're not really running into any dead ends that you feel bad about. But at the same time, some of the deals that they signed. Like, I think we could look at the Quay Walker contract in two years and be like, man, that was a good deal for the Raiders. Like he outplayed that contract based on his potential, his age, the curve, all of that stuff. Do you think we'll be able to say that about either the Elante Taylor contract or the Tour de Flock contracts? I have more, I'm more skeptical about that.

13:43Robert Mays: And so while the downside is not as high, I don't think the upside is very high with a lot of the contracts that they signed. And that's kind of what gives me pause about it. I think that's a good way to frame it. Like, I'm not really that worried that those players are going to like bomb out and those contracts are not going to look good. Like, I do think that they're starting quality players. And given how bad their cornerback room was, I do think it like, because of the position, it's a little bit of a different consideration, right? Like to me, corner and the secondary specifically, we've talked about this a lot, is a weak link system.

14:13And so if we can just shore up every single spot, like that goes a long way. Whereas I do think linebacker, you're hunting a little bit more for pop, which like a guy like Kway Walker can give you, a guy like N 'Kobe Dean can give you. So I would say generally, I do think the N 'Kobe Dean and the Kway Walker signings have a little bit more upside. I think to me, especially in the case of like N 'Kobe Dean, if he can just stay healthy, he's a very good player. And so there's a lot of upside there. But I think the corner signings, I'm actually like relatively OK with what Tennessee did, given how bad it was beforehand.

14:43end.

14:44Robert Mays: Here's where I don't think bottoming out is what I'm most worried about. I just think with both of these signings in particular, I have questions about them as it relates to history of the position, the consistency of the position and just usage overall. Right. So Alante Saylor signs a$19.3 million AAV contract with$42 million guaranteed. That$42 million in practical guarantees is like top 12 at the position. It's just behind the contract signed by guys like Jalen Johnson, Tyson Campbell, when he signed that deal, who's now in Cleveland. Those are outside corners. So what is a lot? Is a lot of Taylor going to play outside for the Titans?

15:23Robert Mays: And if he's not going to play outside, if he's going to be your nickel corner, the money that you gave him is just like in a completely different spot than almost any other player in the league. The only real exception to that is somebody like Byron Murphy. You signed for 18 million a year last year and plays inside outside. And so maybe that is the reference point you're using and how you land on the Elante Taylor contract. But so the usage with him and how just how you're paying different guys at different positions, I have a question about. And with Flott, even if we're at a weak link system with the corners, corners, such an inconsistent position, the volatility from year to year is so extreme and paying for a guy who had a spike in production for one single year and paying like real sticker price for him and a guy like Cordell Flott, there's a very real chance that he's the type of player that takes a step back next year and you're sitting there looking at it and it's like that's not a 15 million dollar corner and so even if floor is what you're seeking out there I still feel like that floor is maybe a little bit more of a false floor than we're pretending it is after handing out this amount of money it probably is especially with that position but I think because I like the coaching staff I'm just a little bit less worried about that and like that that doesn't always work that way like sometimes good teams signed to good coaching staffs and still have this sort of struggle.

16:40But I think I trust them enough that I'll be like, maybe they won't be 100 % of what these guys signed for, but I think they will continue to be quality players.

16:48Robert Mays: At other positions, I think it's much easier to just say a firm yes, like they're better and they're not a lot of qualifications to it. Like you talked about the guys who got the edge, the cornerback snaps for them last year. Jihad Ward led this team in edge snaps last year. And so now you're looking at the roster and John Frankl Myers probably play inside for them, but they traded for Jermaine Johnson. So the defensive line on the defensive front just has so many more usable bodies in it, even if you're going to lose to Vandre Sweat. Jermaine Johnson absolutely could have a bounce back season.

17:20Robert Mays: They're going to be in a position to draft an edge player. And so the defensive front to me, that I have really no questions about how they spent their money, even if it was a premium for John Flankenmeyers. The two positions where it's like, yeah, you spent a lot of money, but are you really that much better? Or even beyond, are you really that much better? Are you really on the path you want to be on at those positions? Maybe that's the best way to frame this question as it relates to Tennessee. Because even though they're better, are you going to be in a spot in a year where you're happy with the quality of play you're getting considering the investments?

17:50Robert Mays: And with both the corners and with Wandel Robinson, I think I just still have questions about that. See, I think with corner, they'll be okay. The Wandel Robinson thing, and this is maybe this is more of a me problem this has probably been the signing and player that I've harped on the most in terms of like I just don't get it but this is the one where like I it would take a lot for me for him to get to a point where I feel like they're getting what they want out of that room which I think like they obviously needed a body but because they have a couple of young players that they wanted like now one of those guys is probably going to be boxed out from snaps which to your point is like is that really the timeline they wanted to be on which at a certain point you have to just start getting usable players and like not let your young rookies go especially when you have a young quarterback you're trying to to foster and like actually have usable players around him but I don't know the the offense I'm I have some my questions about because I think the other part with the offense too the offensive line scares me a little bit with what they're doing at center and right guard like they don't have anybody right now like it's they signed guys who are obvious depth pieces and so maybe they can address that in the draft, but they're probably not going to do that at four.

18:59And so that that leaves them like it's second round picks. And it's maybe one of those late, late, you know, old guard signings, like a Wyatt Teller or whoever it would be like. So they could still fix it. But as I'm looking at it right now, it spooks me a little.

19:11Robert Mays: I mean, you just run it back with Zayler if you wanted to. If you wanted to sign him in late August and he was still on the market, I feel like that's something that you could do. But I think theirs is a complicated answer considering the amount of talent that is now there compared to what it looked like last year. It's more complicated than just simply, yes, they're a lot better. This one's also a pretty intriguing conversation. The Indianapolis Colts. How much better are the Indianapolis Colts now than they were at the end of last season? My answer is they're not. How could they be? They're definitively worse.

19:45Exactly. I think of the 16 AFC teams we did here, I think them... There are maybe one or two other teams that I think are in the running, but I think Indianapolis might be to me like the most clearly taking a step back in terms of roster quality compared to a lot of the other teams.

20:04Robert Mays: We're going to do this several different times here. That's not a criticism of what they've done so far. It's just kind of how everything has fallen. And I think the answer to this would be very different if Trey Hendrickson was a cult right now. Right. If they had managed to pull that off. And it did sound like they thought they were going to be able to make it happen before he signs in Baltimore. but now you don't really have you all the difference making moves that you've made were guys who were already on the team last year like that's where you've spent all your money other than that all you've done is lose Michael Pittman's I year Franklin Quiddie Pay Braden Smith and Nick Cross and again I don't I don't think that any of those are indefensible they were getting a little bit older a linebacker I think they wanted to get a little bit younger there but they still need to address the position even if they didn't want to pay Zaire Franklin anymore.

20:52Robert Mays: I get wanting to pay Alec Pierce instead of Michael Pittman just because their trajectory, where they're going to be over the next couple of years, just the overall arc that Alec Pierce is on. You still probably need another receiving option. Like you're switching out Michael Pittman's role for like Ashton Doolin right now. Michael Pittman's still a good player. Braden Smith played well last year when he was healthy. I can understand not wanting to invest in him anymore because he's an aging player and he's had a checkered injury history and a lot of other things that have happened over the last couple of years.

21:24Robert Mays: But now you're still betting on Jalen Travis to be a guy who can step in for Brayden Smith. And so all the moves, when you kind of remove the, when you have the context in mind, they all make sense. But at the same time, the quality of the roster is not in a better position now than it was two weeks ago. Exactly. Like, that's a good way to put it. You understand how they arrived to you. And like, it's funny too, because like, I think in a vacuum, them losing a player like Quidipe and signing Arden Key to replace him as like a band-aid, I think in a vacuum, that's like a great move. Yeah, that was fine.

21:55It's just like, that's the only thing that they've been able to do. You know what I mean? And so, like almost everything else that's happened in terms of plus and minuses here is like them losing a lot of key players, especially on, we can have whatever considerations we want about the offense and like, is Daniel Jones going to come back? They're losing Pittman. And the defensive roster right now, especially up front, it is like in the running for one of the worst in the NFL, the way that it looks right now. Like it's pretty tough at linebacker specifically. Safety scares me a little bit, obviously with not Nick Cross there.

22:25And they don't have a first round pick.

22:27Robert Mays: I want to just play in fantasy land here for a second, because I'm curious about your answer to this. Let's just hypothetically say Trey Hendrickson is on the Colts right now. What would your answer to this question be?

22:41Probably neutral because because there are a couple of teams where like I basically put them in neutral where it's like, I don't think you're better. I don't think you're worse. We'll see where the draft goes. I probably would have put the Colts in neutral because I do think that Hendrickson kind of makes up for losing Pittman and Smith. And then obviously there's a couple other considerations there. But if he's the pass rusher that you want, an edge pass rusher that you haven't had in a while, and then maybe Laetitulatu takes a step for you. I don't know if I like actually love that vision, but you can it's something you can sell me on.

23:10Whereas the roster where it is right now, it's hard to actually sell me on things.

23:13Robert Mays: I think I'd be quicker to the argument that they're better than they were for a couple different reasons. I just think that Hendrickson having another needle moving player along your front and your defense in particular is hugely important. And it also makes a lot, it slots him into a different role. Like he no longer has to be the best pass rusher on your team. And I actually think that makes me feel better about the front and the defense overall. all. And I think the one thing to mention, and obviously when you look at the rosters and the depth charts, there's no way to do this, but I think this is the argument I would make about Pittman.

23:45Robert Mays: Even if you're losing a productive player from the equation, the fact that now all this really means is that you're going to getting more Josh Downs snaps in replacement of what Michael Pittman was for you. I think that is at least considering here when we talk about whether the Colts are better or worse. Michael Pittman is still a good player, but if Josh downs is going to have a larger role within the offense because Michael Pittman is leaving I think that there's a chance that you come out somewhere neutral with the receiving core if that's going to be your answer they could but then I wonder what the offense looks like because I just don't imagine downs doing a whole lot of what Pittman gives you just because the size difference to me is a lot different I just think in terms of like when you're in 12 personnel like Josh downs gets those snaps now right like he just didn't last year he was somebody that was not on the field unless they had three receivers on the field and that's just not going to happen.

24:34Robert Mays: And I don't know, the roles are obviously different, but I think a bigger role for Josh Downs when they're, when they're in those sorts of sets, I do think he is deserving of that. Like, I think that he was underutilized as a player given their roster construction, even if I understand how they arrive at that point, because Michael Pittman is still a good player. This, this actually weirdly feels a lot like the conversations we've had about like Jaden Reed with the Packers all the time, where it's like, he's such a good player. Why can't he get on the field more? And then they're 12 all the time and they don't want him out there.

25:01Robert Mays: See, I just think that Josh Downs can do more than Jaden Reed is like a real receiver. I think that's my argument is that like, I just think that Jaden Reed is a really nice complimentary piece. I just think that Josh Downs is a more well-rounded player than Jaden Reed. Just from a route running perspective, he's still a vertical threat. I just think he can give you more. And that's why I think I feel okay about what this can look like in the long run with Pierce and him just having more amplified roles. I would be at least down to entertain it Because I do like Josh Downs as a player And it was weird seeing him like pushed out of the offense I mean not weird like you understand how it happened Based on how they were trying to run the offense But I would like to see him in a bigger role This one's going to be tough The Los Angeles Chargers How much better are the Los Angeles Chargers now Than they were a week ago There are two teams where I put I don't know The Chargers are one of them I'm so glad you went this way it's it's actually kind of hard to say it is like like the Biotr signing totally helps right like we all watch the playoff game a center like that is going to go a long way for them and I think some of the depth pieces they got on the offense are great like getting Alec Engle at fullback that's an upgrade Charlie Kohler as your other tight end that's a nice upgrade Keaton Mitchell having like a little more pop than a guy like uh O'Marrion Hampton who's like you're bigger he's going to be your bell cow back I love all of that stuff I also like there's not a whole lot of huge different makers here and they lost pieces on the defensive line.

26:30So it's like, I don't know where I come out on the balance here.

26:35Robert Mays: I think because they still need another edge rusher, I can say that today they're not as good as they were at the end of last season. But I still think the idea that Biotr can be a real stabilizing factor for you on the offensive line, I think that's hugely important based on where they were last year. But I think Owe is a good player and Owe was good for them. And so the fact that even though you brought Mac back, you still really do need another third edge presence and they can get that in the draft. Like this is definitely like an incomplete and I'm not sure I'd want to pay$25 million a year for Odafe Owe in the way that Washington did.

27:11Robert Mays: So I, again, I get how they arrived here. I think I'm closer to neutral than you'd think considering some of the losses that they had because of what I do think the Biotis can give them along the offensive line. I think they're probably a tick worse overall, but that honestly might not be the worst answer when you think about the pure salary they've lost with a couple of these guys. The fact that Zion Johnson made$16 million a year and Owen made$25 million a year, and they haven't really done a lot of splashy things and were hemming and hawing about whether they're better, I think in terms of value and how they're approaching it, that's not the worst place to land.

27:51That's a good way to, that's like an optimistic way to frame it. It's like they didn't necessarily do a lot. They lost some guys who obviously got big ticket money and were not positive that they're worse. That's a good spot to be in. Like there's a chance that I love their first round pick and I'm just like, okay, I can see how the Chargers would be a slightly better team. I obviously, I've said this a million times this offseason and last offseason, I would have wanted to like pay that money to somebody else that I would have liked on the market. But the guys they lost, like I wouldn't have paid Zion Johnson that money.

28:17I wouldn't have paid Odafeo away that money. So it's not like the guys they lost, in my mind, were the guys I would have went out and paid that amount of money.

28:23Robert Mays: Let's play this out two more steps. Let's say in the first round, the Chargers draft an edge that they can slot in to play with Tooley and Khalil Mack, and hopefully that guy steps in for Mack when he moves on after next year. And bringing Mack back, I think, should be part of this discussion. The fact that they brought Mack back, that's definitely part of this. And let's say they draft a guy in the second round, and he ends up being their starting left guard this year. So you get both tackles back. You're dropping in your second round pick at left guard. You bring in Biotish. You have Cole Strange paying right guard who comes along with McDaniel.

28:56Robert Mays: You're talking about all the other kind of ancillary offensive pieces that they've added. And on defense, they didn't really lose anybody else. They bring in Dalvin Thompson kind of to be that bargain depth run stuffing piece that they seem to add every single year. If they add those two guys, those two positions, a guard and a pass rusher in the draft with those first two picks, How do you feel about the state of the Chargers roster at that moment?

29:24I think I would still be in a spot where I feel like they still lack star power. I guess depending on how good the edge...

29:31Robert Mays: But were you going to find that star power in free agency? What was the star power along the interior offensive line? Interior offensive line, I think, is a little bit of a different discussion. That, I think, probably would have been a harder thing to solve. And at least with offensive line, I don't think I would have needed star power, given how bad the interior was, I would have taken like fine, which I think they could have gotten. And they did in Biotish, obviously. But I do think like there were edge guys to be had. Like I said it, I would have tried to be the Jalen Phillips team. And I know that that's a lot of money, but they had a lot of money to a man.

30:00That's a ton of money. It's a lot of money, but it's a good, it's a team that is ready to make that kind of push if they wanted to. And they clearly like, that's just not how they operate. That was never going to happen. I know it was never going to happen. If I'm in their position with that money, that is the kind of player I would have wanted.

30:20Robert Mays: The offensive line question, that's the only thing where I'm like, could they have done a tiny bit more and just not had to solve that? And listen, there's a chance they still sign somebody in free agency as we get a little bit deeper into free agency. The Dalvin Tomlinson thing, him being cut and not having to play into the compensatory pick formula, that's exactly what this team would do. But the offensive line thing is, the last thing that's worth mentioning is I think that the transition schematically from what they were under a more Ravens-esque kind of Greg Roman system to what they are with Mike McDaniel.

30:53Robert Mays: It's such a shift that I think that certain body types get taken off the board for you. And I think a lot of the guys that could have signed up front, David Edwards, real gap-heavy scheme with Buffalo. Isaac Salamow was a bigger player. Like, I think that a lot of the guys who you could have just slotted in as that left guard and justified paying the money are just not quite as good of scheme fits for what McDaniel wants to do is what they might have been able to do last year. And so that's like kind of the only other complicating factor for why didn't the Chargers spend money on any of these guys?

31:23Robert Mays: It's the one last thing I would throw out as a potential explanation as to why they weren't more aggressive to fix this exact problem. I think that's possible, but I wonder how much McDaniel actually cares about that now. Like they drafted Jonas Savanaya last year and he was like 325 pounds. That's a good point. Yeah, that's a good point. I think obviously like Jim Harbaugh, I think there's a chance he's probably like, listen, I know you might like the smaller guys, but we don't care. We need some of the bigger guys. They signed Biotis, who is like bigger for a center. Like I am almost curious if he just does not care about that consideration as much as he might have during the peak of what Miami was.

31:56There's a chance he's softened down it for sure. That's absolutely worth mentioning.

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35:06Robert Mays: the New England Patriots how much better are the New England Patriots now than they were a week ago uh my exact line in my notes is they are a little bit better in ways that are boring like they they kind of just doubled down on what they are and like a lot of the things that they fixed were like obviously Romeo Dobbs is like the the big signing that they made but even that to me is probably like you're just guiding like a younger kind of what you were trying to get out of Stefan Diggs obviously he'll give you a little bit more on the outside but like that's what they were going for but then the other stuff like Reggie Gilliam at fullback it's not sexy I think that's an upgrade for the way they want to run the offense Julian Hill at tight end too kind of the same thing Elijah Vera Tucker is more the like that could go either way just based on the injury history but that would obviously solve a lot he's a guy who can move people in the run game and so And then even on defense, Draymond Jones over Klavan Chason, right?

35:57They got a little bit better in all of the ways that this is exactly how they clearly want to build the team already.

36:05Robert Mays: I think a lot of it depends on Elijah Veritecker's health. I think it's impossible to say right now whether the Patriots are better. Based on the money that they spent and based on the best version of this roster, if you just look at it on paper, like if you can build in a combination of progress and a bounce back from will campbell a jerry uh jerry wilson moving to the position he probably always should have had him at i get why he played guard last you're trying to get your best five out there but i think center was always where he'd end up and now you bring in elijah vera tucker you have on one who's still you have morgan moses the offensive line overall can be a much better unit as currently constructed than it was last year but that is contingent on a guy you're paying 14 million dollars a year actually playing football games for you.

36:50Robert Mays: We talked about it last week. Biggest risk-reward signings of the entire free agency period so far. Elijah Veritaker is absolutely in the conversation. And so I think that's where I sit with it. I agree with you with everything else that they did, where the skill sets they added, the prices they added them at, I understand why they did it. Not a lot of it is very sexy. Like swapping out Draymond Jones for Kalevan Chason is the opposite of that, right? You're just eating your vegetables here as you're trying to build out the room. But the splashy thing they did, they didn't have last year. Because Dobbs is a splashy thing, but they did the Diggs thing last year.

37:25Robert Mays: The splashy thing they did, they didn't have a year ago. It's just hard to say how impactful that is when you have a guy with Elijah Veritaker's injury history. And he's like a good totem for the rest of what will swing, probably how good New England is next season. Because again, Elijah Veritaker, we have no idea how healthy he's going to be, how quality he's going to play. Jared Wilson moving full-time to center. I think we both like the idea of that and agree that he should, that's where he should be. We don't know quite how good of a center he's going to be long-term. Will Campbell, we don't know how much better he's going to be.

37:59And like, he was fine as a rookie left tackle, but you drafted him in the top five. So you want him to be a star. And then Morgan Moses, God bless him that he's been able to do it this long, but he's getting older. And there's a chance to like, this is the year. Like the volatility on what that offensive line could be. It's kind of all up and down the spectrum.

38:17Robert Mays: I'm putting you on the spot here but I'm curious your answer to this as you look at just the roster that New England has in general what do you think is the Patriots biggest remaining need roster-wise? Their biggest remaining need I mean to me it's probably like listen Hunter Henry's a fine player but like they don't have a difference maker at tight end I think that like they can get by with where he's at but I don't think he's that much How dare you say that about Julian Hill he'll be a difference maker for you know 12 snaps a game Julian Hill but I don't know it would probably be that and because again the offensive line it's like all the spots are filled so it's not like I could say anything like I guess if they wanted to take a young player to try to replace Morgan Moses like maybe that would be it they have like a lot of like at least C minus to see at like every spot it's just a matter of like how good do you feel about all of their difference makers?

39:11Robert Mays: I think the, the tight end point is well taken. I think I'd expand that and just make it a little bit more general and just say one more play, like playmaking pass catcher. Like, can you go get a guy with a little bit more pop a receiver or a tight end? Like if you look at that, that crew, they, they, they're potentially trotting out their receiver. It's all, it's passable. But I think that having a little bit more there, the same way it was last year where it was like, can you get a little bit more from this? That's why like them as an A.J. Brown team I would at least think about it I would at least be thinking about it for them as an A.J.

39:43Robert Mays: Brown team but if it's a tight end I think that also is I understand what you're saying there and then the other thing I would say is just juice on the edge at pass rusher right I mean they have the guys that they have the combination of players again you add a guy like what J. Monjones is skill set into the defense he is going to be somebody who you're happy he's a part of your rotation but a little bit more oomph with one of their edge guys I think that's a skill set worth chasing in this year's draft. By the way, they've got a shitload of picks. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. I mean, four of those are in the sixth round, but they've got an extra four from the Bears.

40:20Robert Mays: So, I mean, they have a lot of draft picks heading into this draft to potentially just keep filling this thing out. So just worth keeping in mind as we kind of project forward for what the rest of the offseason might look like for New England. The Baltimore Ravens. how much better are the Baltimore Ravens now than they were a week ago? This was the other team where I said, I'm really not sure that they are better. I'm not like positive that they're a lot worse, but I'm just, I don't feel like they are better. That's kind of where I landed.

40:52Robert Mays: My answer was, I think, yes. Are they better? I said, I think, yes. I think, I think they're better. I do. And the Linderbaum thing, obviously, when you lose a guy that another team is willing to pay$27 million, that is a loss. There's no way around that. Howard Linderbaum is a good player. That being said, they signed John Simpson in free agency. So you get better, hopefully, at one of those guard spots. I still think that there's a way for them to address center. And again, this is right now compared to projecting forward after they finish out the rest of the roster. but when you think about alternative pathways to finding a guy, like if they just signed Lloyd Cushenberry to an$8 million a year deal, a year removed from the Achilles, like could he come in and just give you acceptable play at center?

41:42Robert Mays: If that happens, I think I'd say definitively that they're better because what Hendrickson gives you, and you lose a Loey Gilman, but they signed Jalen Hawkins to kind of play that role. Like I do think that if they figure out a passable starter at center and they can just solve that in some way, I don't think I would even hesitate. The fact that you still have two interior offensive line spots that are sort of up in the air, I think that's the only reason I would say they're not better with confidence. That's kind of where I'm at. They are the one where I want to see how center gets sorted out.

42:16And honestly, Cushenberry at that amount of money, if he's healthy, he was a good player for multiple teams. When he was healthy, it's just obviously that's not been the case. It was not the case last year.

42:25Robert Mays: He was one off those Achilles and like he was rehabbing that until like right up until the start of the season. So there's a chance that he's better for somebody than he. And obviously, I understand the Titans moving on. They paid him a lot of money. He did not play at that level. But I still think staff, new coaching staff. There's just so many different things to consider there. But I just feel like if they can get that thing solved, and I do have faith that they can get that thing solved. The fact that Hendrickson, even at this stage of his career, is just such a having one more difference maker along your defensive line, even if they had some attrition with some of these other pieces and they lost beyond Linderbaum, Isaiah Likely, Draymond Jones, Charlie Kohler, Keaton Mitchell, Paracard.

43:07Robert Mays: I think that's been overstated when we talk about how the Crosby thing affected their free agency strategy. I don't know if you pay any of those guys at those prices, but even if you're only bringing in two or three players and you lost all of them, I think if you can solve the center thing in some way, I'd still be willing to say they're better. So the skill player thing is, I think, what gave me pause, though, because I don't even think that like any of those guys are special players necessarily, like Ricard, Likely, Kohler, Keaton Mitchell, any of that. but that's chipping away at a lot of your depth for guys who are taking like serious snaps for you at the skill position players.

43:44And like, they still do not have a good wide receiver room. Like it's, I think that there's a chance that this looks, and Mark Andrews is getting a little bit older. He's really the only like serious tight end that they have on the roster. Like I, there's a chance that the skill player room looks really bad. And so that on top of, we just don't know how they're going to be able to address center. I'm just, I feel a lot more scared about the way that the offense looks right now than I think I did even a couple of weeks ago. The defense, I think, totally looks fine. Even if I would have done Max Carversy over Trey Hendrickson, whatever, the defense I can totally get there with.

44:16The offense scares me the more I look at it.

44:19Robert Mays: How much work have you done on Kenyon Sadiq at this point? I have not gotten to tight ends, unfortunately. They're my next position group. But I would take somebody. I know that he's like one of the freakiest athletes that has ever been at the NFL Combine. Sign me up for that. They signed Durham Smythe in free agency, which is very funny because obviously you have Declan Doyle going over there, and so he's just going to be their third tight end. They still have Mark Andrews. I assume they're going to want to live in multiple tight end sets in the same way that the Bears did last year. And so having like, and I know they're very different body types and all that, just save it.

44:52Robert Mays: But Kenny and Sadiq is like the Colston Loveland for like the Ravens offense. And then you still have like enough receiver pieces if they can get a Cushenberry in free agency. See, like I right now, I am not definitive in my answer to this question. I am leaving a lot of room for us to get to the end of the offseason and maybe like the Ravens are going to be pretty good. See, see, and I'm totally fine with that, because if if we do this show post draft, let's say May 12th, we do a show like this of like, how good is every team coming out of the offseason? There's a chance that I'm like, hey, man, the Ravens kind of killed it.

45:28They got one of these final two, like, you know, those late free agency signings that they always loved. and I like it. They killed the draft in the first two rounds. There's a chance we get there. I just, as I look at it now, I'm like, I don't know. You need to prove it to me. I want to see it first.

45:41Robert Mays: Let's get to our next one here. The Houston Texans. How much better are the Houston Texans now than they were a week ago? I put neutral for them. I don't really feel like they are better. I don't think they're that much worse, but I'm not convinced they're better. Okay. I don't disagree with that. let's just say the Titus Howard to Braden Smith thing is a neutral move. It's just like a lateral move at right tackle. Does that change your opinion at all? I mean, so I guess by virtue of what I'm about to say, this makes them like 1 % better. I definitely don't think the roster is worse. I'm just like, don't really know if they are meaningfully better in like any way.

46:30and I like a lot of the guys that they sign like or you know Montgomery is a trade David Montgomery but I think that that's obviously a good addition I think even Foster Moreau is like backup tight in depth is nice Reed Blankenship at safety cool we don't have to play a lot of our young guys at safety I like that I just it's not a lot of like this is solving anything or like creating a new dynamic for the team sort of deal for me outside of maybe Montgomery here's what I would say about

46:55Robert Mays: that. I don't necessarily disagree because they didn't do anything overly ambitious with the moves that they made. I... Two things can be true at the same time. They cannot be appreciably better now than they were a week ago, and this can still be one of my favorite free agency approaches of any team over the last week. And I think both of those things are true at the same time. Like, I really like what they did. I just really like the overall collection of moves. I would have done all of this. Yeah, that's the thing. I would have done all of this, but then I look at it and I'm like, I don't know how excited I am that this is where we've arrived, but they all make sense.

47:33Robert Mays: Brayden Smith at right tackle for Titus Howard for a much cheaper price. I think there's more risk involved in that, but again, it's so much cheaper than it was with Titus Howard. And David Montgomery, I think, is absolutely an upgrade over what they had. We talked about Logan Hall, Blankenship just coming in and be able to be a starter for them. If you had something like Evan Brown for three and a half million dollars is like a depth piece for you along the offensive line. As a team that has a decent chunk of draft capital, the extra second and the extra fourth from Washington, and then they don't have a third, they have the Giants third, but we've talked about this.

48:06Robert Mays: They have five picks in the top 106 and four picks in the top 70. Knowing that is kind of hanging in the background here, what they did in free agency to just kind of open up any direction they want to go with those picks, I do really like it. I don't know if they're that much better now than they were a week ago, but they got younger with some of these moves. They got deeper with some of these moves, and they've got a really nice collection of draft assets here coming. So even if the answer is, eh, it's kind of neutral, it's still, as I look at it, one of my favorite approaches that any team had in free agency.

48:39And I think I agree with that. Again, I look at it and I'm like, I don't know if they are any more amount of wins better, but I do like where they've set themselves up. And every single individual signing, I'm like, yep, would have done that for that amount of money. Yep, that solves a nice little problem, even if it's not sexy. Like, I do like their stuff. I just didn't look at them and be like, they bought another win this offseason, which maybe they didn't have to. They're obviously a really good team if the offense, like, fixes any of their own stuff just in terms of the offensive line coming together a little bit.

49:08Robert Mays: The Buffalo Bills. How much better are the Buffalo Bills than they were a week ago? I guess two weeks ago with the Bills. Yeah, with the trade. I said moderately better, question mark. because I think the offense is better. I think David Edwards, obviously losing him is going to hurt a little bit, but you add DJ Moore, all the frustrations in Chicago aside, I know that those were irritating and stuff, but he's a clearly better player than anybody that they had in his offense before and a guy that you can feed the offense through. He may not be an ideal number one, but when Josh Allen is your quarterback, I think that this will be good enough, especially with all the other skill players that they have, obviously.

49:49And the offensive line, even if it's 5 % worse because you lose Edwards and maybe a little bit worse than that because you lose Cromer, it should still be a pretty good unit and you're not going to be worried about that. Trying to sort out where I'm at with the defense because of the coaching staff changes, I think was a little bit tougher for me to actually get a handle around.

50:06Robert Mays: It's almost impossible to do because you're trying to like filter the personnel and even some of the moves through a new defensive staff, which is just really, really difficult. And so from a personnel perspective, I think it's probably pretty even where they were defensively just because they haven't done very much. The only things they did were sign Bradley Chubb, but Bosa's going to be a free agent, and they signed D 'Alfred and Teron Johnson's gone. And so it's kind of like, again, two kind of lateral moves on defense. And then I agree with you. They had to pay for it, right? Like that's the difference.

50:38Robert Mays: This isn't just you're using the David Edwards money to sign DJ Moore. You're doing that wall, trading away a second round pick and only getting a fifth back. And so they are better. The question is just going to be about whether the premium they paid to get that much better is worth it in the end. And I honestly think it will be because if they are still like a B-plus run team instead of one of the best in the NFL the way that they were last year, obviously you have a ton of flexibility there and you can still be the offense that you want. But then if they now have actual ways that they can pivot the passing game instead of running mesh every play, that goes a really long way for what they should be able to do in January.

51:21Because like we all know the game with this team. Like the only thing that matters is January. This is a team that we know can and will get there. And having a player like DJ Moore, even if not like the, you know, I'm sure like everybody would have wanted A.J. Brown or whatever. But like that is a player that gives you more flexibility and pop in your passing game. I think to me it probably comes out as a win.

51:42Robert Mays: They absolutely overpaid to get DJ Moore, but it can still be worth it to have done that. Yes, that's a great way to put it, 100%. That's where I sit with this. It's like you definitely overpaid. Like giving away the two in order to do this is an overpay ball taking on that contract. But if it works out, it doesn't matter. And I do think that it could work out. And I'm with you on the line. I it's it's harder just to have ingrained faith in this after losing Cromer and just how good they've been at just being one of those teams in the ecosystem they've created up front over the last few years.

52:18Robert Mays: But I still think that bringing McGovern back, even losing Edwards, that's something where you can absorb the hit and probably be OK on the other side. That's kind of how I feel about it. Exactly. Like it's not going to be their engine as much anymore. But if DJ Moore makes up for that and a little bit more, totally OK. The Cleveland Browns. How much better are the Cleveland Browns now than they were a week ago? I mean, they're definitely worse. But like, I just like they're one of the them in Miami. So I think they're definitely worse. The off. I think the offensive line. I know that they added like a few names, but I think the offensive line will take some amount of step back.

52:56Losing David and Joku isn't the biggest deal because obviously we love Harold Fannin, but he is a talented player. And we see Tom Monken use two tight ends a lot. And so I just, there's that element of it. They are a team where they have two first round picks. So it complicates it a little bit. Like this is one where we could look a little bit later in the offseason and be like, oh, they solved a couple of those things in the first round. But for the most part, I don't think they upgraded anywhere, except maybe arguably Quincy Williams over Devin Bush, I think is like that could work out for the defense.

53:25But otherwise, it was hard for me to get there with a lot of these.

53:28Robert Mays: The offensive line is so funny because, okay, so you're looking at it right now, right? So as of this taping, they've essentially slotted out Joel Batonio, Wyatt Teller, Ethan Pochich, and Jack Conklin for Zion Johnson, Elton Jenkins, Titus Howard, and potentially Tevin Jenkins. And it's like, I don't know what to make of that. Like, they might be better. I don't know. That's the thing. The sell is like, we saw last year Cleveland's offense wasn't good. And I think the offensive line was made worse, obviously, by the quarterback play and a number of other factors. And like they could be decent.

54:04But the idea would be like we saw the offense be bad with that offensive line last year. Even if we sign guys who are of roughly the same quality, maybe you just get like a random chemistry bump that they all just work together. And Todd Monken knows what he's doing and it all works out. I don't know if I believe that, but I'm sure a lot of people in the Cleveland area are trying to get themselves to believe that.

54:29Robert Mays: if Jenkins plays guard, I feel better. Yes. I think, I think that my answer is yes, in part because Conklin only played eight games again last year. So Titus Howard is not a great player, but if Titus Howard plays 16 games for you and he gives you the level of play that he has over the last couple of years, I think that I can arrive in a place where I do think the offensive line is better overall than it was last season, even with all the shuffling here. But I think the point about Njoku is a good one, right? So you're losing a guy who has been a good player for them for a while. And maybe they don't, right?

55:03Robert Mays: But like, Njoku still played 500 snaps for them last year. They don't have a clear replacement when it comes to that second tight end. So it's a tough one just because the offensive line is such a weird situation. But I think it's probably closer to neutral than anything else. That being said, here's my counter to that. when your entire offensive line hits free agency and a week after that process began, you can make an argument that they're at least in the same zip code in terms of where they were before free agency opened. That's not the worst place to have landed, given how it could have gone this week.

55:39That's a fair point because when I, it did not occur to me that the entire offensive line was going to be up for their contracts until we were doing like some other, maybe pre-combine work like a month and a half ago. And I was like, okay, this is ridiculous. I've been thinking about it for like a year.

55:53Robert Mays: I remember sitting there in training camp last year and I was kind of like, you guys worry that your entire offensive line is set to be free agents next year? And they're kind of like, eh. I was like, all right. I mean, they solved it in a way that was like, eh, it'll be fine. Like they clearly threw resources at it. I just did not think that they would be able to do that. So yeah, the fact that they've arrived here is better than I would have imagined. I don't know if that necessarily makes the roster better than it was, is where I've arrived. All right, let's take our last quick break and then come back and talk about another team where it might be a somewhat complicated answer.

56:50Robert Mays: fully off my plate and updates me every step of the way so I don't have to worry. That way, I can get back to the things that matter to me, like going on vacation in the spring or enjoying the NFL offseason. So stop chasing updates. It's time to switch to the modern tax filing solution with Intuit TurboTax. The best part? You can get experts' progress right on your phone while you go about your day. So go for a run or grab a coffee. You'll know your dedicated expert is handling it, looking for every last deduction to get you the best possible outcome and every dollar you deserve. File with confidence.

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58:36Robert Mays: The New York Jets. how much better are the New York Jets now than they were a week ago? I think the Jets are better. And this is going to be another team where it's like, to what end? You're signing a lot of guys who maybe, you know, it's a lot of one-year deals. It's obviously like Demario Davis is really old. It's not a lot of those like second contract guys that you were talking. Obviously, like David Onymada is a much older player. The big like second contract swing type of guy that they're taking is obviously Tavondra Sweat, who I do think is a really good player. But otherwise, it's kind of a lot of just like we are trying to get better today, which is fine given how bad they were last year.

59:11So you have all of that on defense. And actually, Joseph Osai actually does give you like a second contract swing at a quality player. And then, listen, Gino Smith is probably not as good as we wanted him to be, or as he was two years ago. He is miles better than what they had at quarterback last year. So it is clearly an upgrade from that perspective.

59:31Robert Mays: How I was going to approach this was, even if Gino is... The two poles here, the two endpoints, one being 2020 for Geno Smith and one being 2025 Geno Smith, even if he's 65, 70 percent of the way to 2025, like that's the guy he is this year. It's still going to be an upgrade for them at quarterback. It's like a full tier upgrade still. So that's they're they're better there. And even some of the moves that they may where it's like to what end, like the trading for Minka Fitzpatrick, the David Onyemata contract. we've talked about this a lot over the last week or so. I think this is an effort to be a more competent, respectable football team this year, while in, for the most part, not really borrowing at all from what you're trying to be moving forward.

1:00:21Robert Mays: The money, they're absolutely not borrowing from it because a lot of these are one-year commitments. The Maked thing is a one-year commitment. The David Aniamada thing is a one-year commitment. And Anikbari is a one-year commitment. Demario Davis, it's a two-year deal, but it's a pretty modest two-year deal. the only real compromise that you're making by signing up some aging players to slide into these roles for a year is are you cutting off some pathways to opportunity for young players that you can draft? But I don't think that's even really going to happen. Like they need so many things that they could start every pick that they make this year while accommodating all of the players that they signed and traded for.

1:00:58That's exactly the thing to me. Like they, they have like four picks like really high up in the draft they could draft all those guys and even with the guys that they signed still reasonably play them a good amount like you could pick an edge rusher and he might only end up third in your rotation but he would still play a ton um obviously at corner like they have a bunch of guys but I don't think anyone who is stopping you from taking a corner at um you know in the middle of the first round at like pick 16 and being like that guy's just gonna play for us if they wanted to get like Caleb Downs is not gonna fall but like if there was a safety there who they really liked and really wanted to play him next to Minka, they could if they wanted to.

1:01:34Like, I don't really think they're stopped from really drafting almost any of the positions that they want.

1:01:40Robert Mays: Yeah, I think this is just yet another entry in us looking at what the Jets did this week and being like, I kind of get it. It's fine. You know, I don't mind how they approach this. It seems crazy, like as it was all happening in free agency, right? Like when it was just like, oh, they're signing this guy and this guy and this guy and this guy. But now that the dust has settled and you look at it and you're like, they should be a competent team now. That looks all right. even like the idea of trading out John Simpson, who I think is 30 now for Dylan Parham at the same contract level. It's like, you're a second contract guy.

1:02:08Robert Mays: Can he be better for you than he was for the Raiders? Like you understand that as a swing. And so I understand everything that they've done and the approach that they've taken so far. And again, I just think that there's a little bit of upside with some of those moves, like the Osai and Parham moves. There is upside potentially with those. And there's just not a ton of downside when you look at the prices for those players and what their approach was overall. The Kansas City Chiefs. How much better are the Kansas City Chiefs now than they were a week ago?

1:02:41I said neutral, maybe worse. Like, I love the Kenneth Walker signing. Like, I really think that that can, like, potentially change the structure of the offense. Hopefully it gives them a little bit more pop, which we've talked about on a lot of our free agency shows. I really did like that move. and I even like some of the other signings that they did make like Kairos Tonga I think makes a lot of sense um even some of the we can talk about obviously they take a step back at the secondary but some of the things they did to try to make up for it like signing a Kedar Kohu it's like that's a solid thing but then I look at where they came out in the aggregate and I'm like maybe they'll solve this in the draft but it still just looks like a worse team to me

1:03:18Robert Mays: especially on defense I think it is but I think they consciously chose to do that Right. I mean, so there are probably a worse team now. But again, when you trade away a guy who is worth the haul that they got for Trent McDuffie, you're going to be a worse team without that guy on your roster. Like all that is now is hypothetical additions via draft picks. So they were always going to take a step back by making that sort of move. And again, having a little bit of attrition with some of these signings. But the hope is that what you got back for it is still in the best interest of putting together a better roster moving forward.

1:03:54Robert Mays: And I think that that's very possible. You know, and again, I like a lot of the smaller things that they did. Losing Brian Cook and replacing him with a Lohi Gilman for$5 million a year cheaper, stuff like that. You mentioned Kairos Tonga, Kader Kohu is a very low risk signing. So all of that stuff, I get it. And you're in a spot now where you have three top 40 picks. And so if you can find a pass rusher, maybe a big body pass catcher, get some secondary depth, even an outside corner, they lose Jalen Watson and Trent McDuffie, but no Williams, somebody drafted in the third round last year, he flashed enough where now he gets a bigger opportunity.

1:04:30Robert Mays: You still have Christian Fulton on the roster. And so they are a less talented team now than they were a week ago. But I think the stuff that they did combined with how they're going to try to approach some of this in the draft, it's a plan overall that I think you can still pretty easily get behind. I do think I agree with that too. Like I, they are a worse team, but also they're going to be funny going into next, into next year because like they were not as bad of a team as the record showed last year. So like it might come out that they're like a perfectly fine team next year, especially with the first round picks.

1:05:02And so I, they are a worse roster. I think that's more likely than not. Yeah, exactly. Like there's a, we could be sitting here and being like, oh, the roster's a little bit worse. and then we see who they get in the draft and then we consider all this stuff. We do our off-season talks of like, oh, but this regression thing, this regression thing, this regression thing. And it's like, oh, they probably come out as like an 11-win team again and they're fine.

1:05:21Robert Mays: Yeah, if Mahomes comes back and is like most of the way back to Patrick Mahomes and plays like, let's call it between 12 and 16 games for them next year. They're probably a contender. Yeah. Right now. I'm curious. I haven't looked this up but let's see the answer to this. Are we going to Super Bowl odds here? Yes. That's exactly what we're doing. Right now, how many teams do you think have better Super Bowl odds than the Kansas City Chiefs? I'm not even going to think of which teams it would be. I'll say like five. The answer is exactly five. Wow, really? Who is it? The Rams, the Seahawks, the Bills, the Ravens, and the Chargers.

1:06:03Robert Mays: Really? Yes. The Chargers, I would not have put, but okay. All right. So the Chargers, I think it's at FanDuel. they have better Super Bowl odds than the Chiefs do. It's all over the place. So there's other places where they're at 17-1 and the Chiefs are 15-1. The answer still, if you look at, I think this is DraftKings, it's still five. The Eagles happen to have, no. In this one, the Chiefs are fifth. They're tied with the Packers. So it's somewhere between fifth and seventh. Top eight. Top quartile of the league, despite all of this, is the point. Fringe contender status is where we land on this, despite how last season ended and the fact that the roster is not definitively better now than it was at the end of last year.

1:06:42Robert Mays: I think that speaks to a lot of different things when you're considering what type of team the Chiefs actually are. We don't have to spend a ton of time on this one. The Miami Dolphins. Are the Miami Dolphins better than they were at the end of last year? I mean, they're worse, but they were trying to be worse. It just is what it is. Yes. The Malik Willis thing is the only thing that they've done. And so, and I don't even know if they're that much worse. All they've done is they've lost Bradley Chubb, Cole Strain, Julian Hill, Larry Borum, Alec Ingold are the free agents that have signed other places.

1:07:11Robert Mays: They traded away Minkah Fitzpatrick. They're worse, but they were always trying to get a little bit worse. And I think the Willis thing is intriguing. It's exciting. We'll see how it goes. They're worse, but again, it doesn't really matter. The only quibble I have in terms of their process that when I was looking at this, it kind of freaked me out and I didn't like it. Their edge room is thin. And I don't mean they don't have players. I mean, the bodies are thin. Like all of those guys are 250 and under. I don't love that. It's like Josh, they signed Josh Uche and David Ajava this offseason. They already have Chop Robinson, who is like a quality player.

1:07:44But it's just all these guys who are like super skinny, bendy guys. And I'm like, you need at least one like mess shit up kind of guy.

1:07:51Robert Mays: I want just to do this right now. OK, it's 3.36 p.m. on Sunday, March 15th. I want the best for you. you cannot be sitting here worried about the state of the Miami Dolphins defensive roster at any point in the next calendar year. That's what the show was. I don't know. You can't do that, though. You can't be sitting there and be like, man, the Dolphins could really use another blank on defense. They're going to need another blank on defense here for a while. Like, I'm not going to let you get worked up over this. But the only reason I'm worked up over it is I feel like I'm going to get in a position where I was with like watching the Bengals defense last year.

1:08:28where I'm like, this is ruining my Tuesday.

1:08:32Robert Mays: The only reason that's okay is because the offense might be fun enough for you to have justified disappointment in the defense. But overall, you can't allow yourself to do that. You just can't let it happen. I'm being ridiculous, but I just listened. I had to do it. The Denver Broncos. How much better are the Denver Broncos now than they were a week ago? uh i just they did they didn't do anything all they've done is lost john franklin myers so like so i would say they are worse because of that but like that's literally the only difference on the team really andre greenlock who like didn't really play for them anyway correct it's a simple answer like they did a lot of their spending last year they were probably never going to be that aggressive bringing back jk dobbins i can completely understand that and what he gave you last year they were in the david montgomery market they did not want rj harvey to kind of have that back feel all to himself, but it's all guys, their only moves are guys who were already on the roster last year.

1:09:31Robert Mays: So by losing John Franco Myers, by virtue of that single thing, they are a little bit worse, but not in a way where I'm like, oh my God, what are the Broncos doing? Yeah, they will be perfectly fine. Yeah, that's really all I have to say about them. Nothing happened. The Cincinnati Bengals lost Trey Hendrickson, lost Joseph Osai, signed Boya Mafe, Brian Cook, and then retained Dalton Reisner. How much better are the Cincinnati Bengals now than they were a week ago I I don't think that I'm not 100 % sure that they are better but I do kind of like the way that they approach things in the sense of like Hendrickson was probably gone no matter what and then I do think that signing we talked about Osai is like a nice swing for the Jets but Mafe is like a tier above that and like a nice signing I think for a team like Cincinnati and then I do think some of the other signings on defense it's like I do think you're probably betting on something a little bit with John Allen at this stage in his career and the age of the injury history.

1:10:27I think I forgot about Jonathan Allen too.

1:10:28Robert Mays: Yeah, Jonathan Allen also. Yep. Brian Cook. I said, I don't know if I would have spent that amount of money on Brian Cook, but they're in a spot where it's like the Titans in corners where it's like you were so bad at safety last year. I'm okay with you overpaying for competence. And they did that. And so I kind of like some of what they did. I don't know if I feel that much like one way or the other with Cincinnati. I think they are better I think they're a little bit better When you take the collection of additions And I think the Osai Mafé thing is a good one So let's just even call that a wash You bring in Jonathan Allen You bring in Brian Cook You lose Trey Hendrickson Maybe they're a little bit worse When you try to add all of that up But the Hendrickson thing is just weird Because it's like we knew he was gone You know what I mean?

1:11:12Exactly He was also banged up last year

1:11:16Robert Mays: And so if you're just thinking about the state of the 2025 defense specifically, you can make an argument that they're better. Where I land with this is, even if it's a little bit close, if the young players on their defense don't take a huge step forward, none of this matters anyway. So it's almost inconsequential, whatever your answer to this is. And I think it's a couple of different things. That's not a criticism of what they did. I can fully get behind what they did, actually kind of like the stuff that they did, but you can like the stuff that they did, admit that they're probably about the same level of quality now as they were at the end of last year, and then come to a conclusion where if Shamar Stewart doesn't end up becoming a real player, none of this shit matters anyway.

1:12:01Honestly, it's kind of where I was at with the Texans. And my version of instead of the young players on defense, it's the offensive line for Houston and maybe Aronte Urshry taking a step. But it's kind of in the same spot where it's like, I kind of like a lot of what they did. I'm not like sure how many wins they bought,

1:12:17Robert Mays: which is fine. Two more here. Jacksonville Jaguars. How much better are they than they were a week ago? They are definitely worse. Yes. Unfortunately, like on both sides of the ball, they lost imperfect players, but clearly playmakers like Travis HN, who I'm going to have to get used to saying that, which was, I did not realize that is how he said his name, but now we're going to have to get used to that. So Travis Achan, like losing him, obviously hurts. They did add Chris Rodriguez, who very different back, but like a good masher, just like we need two yards on third and one back. So I do think that that is nice for them to pair with facial tootin.

1:12:55You just don't believe in facial tootin. That's what all this is about. I love facial tootin for what he is. I don't know about 25 facial tootin touches a game. That's kind of where I land.

1:13:08Robert Mays: They're worse, but I think that was always going to happen. you know like Devin Lloyd at that price was never going to happen E10 at that price was never going to happen so but getting Monteric Brown back I think was a win for them they're worse but not in a way that I find it even a little bit concerning yeah exactly I'm not like super concerned about it like there's like a chance I would have liked them to add more at the offensive line but like maybe they spend a like their second round pick on something like that and they can like at least add some competition there so like they'll and even some of the cornerback stuff is kind of made up for the fact that like Hunter's going to play there now like it's they'll probably be okay they're just clearly a slightly worse roster the pittsburgh steelers how much better are the pittsburgh steelers than they were a week ago so they're a really complicated one because like trying to take the coaching whatever i think about the coaching stuff out of it and really just thinking about the players on the roster i do think it is a better roster like jamel dean is a big upgrade at corner two brisker i think is a really solid add that helps keep the flexibility with Ramsey that I think that they want.

1:14:11Michael Pittman as your number two is like far away better than anything that they had last year. Like a lot of the moves that they made, even Rico Dowdle coming in as a guy who is like, he's kind of just like a hammer for you. But like just bringing in a guy like that, I do think is nice the way that they wanted to run this offense. Like I, I like a lot of what Pittsburgh did. Again, I don't know how many wins it's actually buying them. And I still don't love the ceiling for this team, but all the moves they made, I was like, that's a clear upgrade for a decent price. That's a clear upgrade for a decent price.

1:14:41Like I like what they did.

1:14:43Robert Mays: Yeah, I'm with you. They are absolutely better. My question just about them is going to be to what end? And it's because we don't know what's going to happen with the quarterback situation, but it's also, and we've talked about this in relation to the Steelers. They're better for 2026. They're better. They absolutely are. But when this team is ready to compete, are any of the things they did going to be in service of that goal? That's my question. But the answer is, are they better now than they were a week ago? And is it a better football team for this year than it was at the start of the offseason?

1:15:15Robert Mays: I think undeniably, yes. Yeah, it's like maybe Brisker, right? Like if he can stay healthy, he's a younger player for you. Like that's a guy that you can maybe... It's a one-year deal for Brisker though. He's going to be a free agent after this season. You'd have to just pay him again. Yeah, it's a good point. So maybe not then. Maybe the answer is no. Yeah, I think all the moves that they made when you think about what they gave up, the fact that they gave Pittman an extension and got his number down, the swing for Brisker, even the price for Jamel Dean, all of them removed from like the context of what the long-term goals of the Steelers are, are moves that I think you can easily get behind at positions of need.

1:15:49Robert Mays: Like they've made improvements in areas where they needed to make improvements. The question just becomes like, how does this feed into a team trying to build a Super Bowl caliber roster? And I don't know the answer to that because I don't think their Super Bowl caliber roster now and a lot of the moves that they made are in service of them being a better team now and maybe not in 2027 that's that's probably what it is like it's 2028 yeah this probably doesn't make them better long term if it at least makes them a more compelling version of the 10-win team that gets into the sixth or seventh seed whatever it is that's at least that would be more watchable and i think they are i think they are a more compelling version of that 10-win team but it still feels like they're a 10-win team and what else and that's where we often arrive with the Steelers.

1:16:33Robert Mays: All right. That is all we've got for the AFC. We will be back tomorrow doing this exact exercise for the NFC. Looking forward to that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

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