Inside the TE revolution — from someone living it

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1:26Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mayes. Today, we're digging into the tight end revolution that has overtaken the league here over the last year or so. The entire offseason had moments where we realized how valuable tight ends were. Guys like Charlie Kohler, who we're talking to a little bit later today, getting$8 million a year. Darnell Washington gets$13 million a year as a guy who is primarily a blocking force for the Steelers. We saw seven kind of Y-ish tight ends drafted in a span of 40 picks on day two of the draft this year. There are a lot of different reasons for this.

1:59Robert Mays: I think teams are chasing what the Rams did out of 13 personnel. I think that overall we've seen an uptick of multi-tight end sets across the league. Derek and I spent a lot of time at the beginning of this show talking about what has led to this moment, what's fueling it, and maybe what the next stage of it ends up looking like. But I didn't want to just have a conversation with Derek or Dave or the same group that does this show consistently. I wanted to talk to somebody who actually is going through this, is actually a part of what this tight end moment in the league has been over the last year or so.

2:30Robert Mays: And that's why we wanted to talk to Charlie. Obviously, he is a guy that in Baltimore was really the third tight end on that team, a team that really prioritized the receiving tight ends that they had. But he's somebody that we all thought might be, can he be like a role player you get in free agency? Can he be somebody that is available at a pretty decent price that can outperform that contract? and it wasn't like a four or five million dollar a year deal he got eight million dollars a year as somebody that was a definitive third tight end in baltimore to go to the chargers and i think in a lot of ways it's because he really does embody a lot of the things that we're talking about here and the multi-faceted benefits you can get from these sorts of tight ends so really enjoyed talking to charlie about his view on the trends around the league his view on why this is happening and what it all means for guys at his position so let's get to that conversation with derek followed by our chat with Charlie right now.

3:33Robert Mays: Very excited to dig into today's conversation. Like I mentioned in the intro, we're going to be chatting with Charlie Kohler a little bit later on this show to get some insight on the tight end revolution and the current moment for tight ends from somebody who's currently living it. But before we got to that conversation with Charlie, just because it was kind of specific to his experience what his offseason looked like, just the way that he sees how this has unfolded in the league. Derek, I wanted to just kind of take a step back and have a somewhat broader discussion about this moment and what's brought us to this moment before we dig into that conversation with Charlie.

4:06Robert Mays: So I mentioned some of these numbers with him, but just to kind of table set a little bit about where we are before we dig into discussion, I think is worthwhile. So we've just seen an uptick in the usage of heavy personnel packages in general in the NFL, but also just how many tight ends that we're seeing on the field compared to what the league looked like even a couple years ago. So in 2023, per Tremedia, we were at 62.4 % 11 personnel in the NFL. Last year was at 56.3%. So it's a six percentage point drop. And that number, 56.3 % last year for 11, that's the lowest since 2017 when it was 58%.

4:40Robert Mays: Well, what happened in 2017? Sean McVay got to Los Angeles. And so you saw the uptick even the following year. it went from 58 % in 2017 to about 62 % in 2018. And from there, it's hovered above 62 % really essentially for the last like eight seasons. And now we're falling back down. So now it's sitting there at 56%. Last year, we were at 22%, 12 personnel. And you compare that to about 16.5 % in 2018. So that's where a lot of that shift has been happening. So we're just getting more tight ends than we've gotten in years past. And then when you look at what the Rams did, and I think maybe some of the signal that might lead us to believe what other teams might do, we're going from 12 personnel to 13 personnel.

5:26Robert Mays: And that has started to seep into personnel choices. We had guys like Charlie Kohler who had 10 catches last year making$8 million a year. The day we're recording this, Darnell Washington made$13 million a year on his latest extension. And in the draft, we had seven guys who I think profile as we'll call them credible blockers, right? Like not Eli Stowers, the guys that went after him that are credible blockers and credible two way tight ends. We had seven of those guys drafted between picks 56 and 95 in this year's draft. Borgature, Marlon Klein, Max Clare, Roush, Oscar Delp, Will Kazmarek, Eli Rarity.

6:06Robert Mays: So we are really having a moment here for the way that the league is seeking out tight ends and how many we're seeing deployed and how central they are to some of the best offenses in the league. And so I want to start this conversation at a pretty simple place, but an important one. And I want to ask you, why do you think this is happening? What do you think are the root causes for what has pushed the league to the point that we're seeing right now? I mean, I think you do kind of have to go back to when McVay took over the job in 2017. and then at the same time that was the year that Patrick Mahomes also got drafted and obviously he doesn't end up starting until the following year with Kansas City but like we all remember it was just a handful of years before with Kansas City where they they ran a fairly effective offense without throwing a touchdown to a wide receiver like they were a little bit more of a tight end offense but they get Mahomes they get Tyree Kill they have this unique tight end in Travis Kelsey and they become more of an 11 personnel and spread team for a while and then Then you have Sean McVay doing what he did, which a very different world than the way that he was doing 11 personnel.

7:04But you had these two like the pillars of the offensive football in the league were 11 personnel driven. And everybody's picking from those trees because, as we say a million times, it's a copycat league. You pick from what those guys are doing. And so that's how you get the Doug Petersons and Matt Nagy as a head coach. And then obviously the million guys that come off of the McVay tree. And so they are trying to replicate that style of offense, which we've talked about before, was mostly a response to teams being like more living in the cover three world and you could kind of expose them this way.

7:34And I think that's a little bit where I want to start. I think the more I thought about this a little bit, cover three and cover one, it's still a one high league generally. And like cover three is still pretty popular, but it's less popular now than it was. And I think when it was at its height.

7:47Robert Mays: you're playing out of right it's not necessarily the coverages that you're playing it's how you're starting and if you look at the numbers it's drastically different i don't have them in front of me how many pre-snap two high shells we see now compared to pre-snap two high shells we saw in 2018 even if the cover three percentages are still the most prevalent of any coverage in the league right it used to be pre-loaded like you knew what you were getting in the box almost every time and i think part of the math that teams were doing in 2015 2016 2017 2018 all that stuff was that if we know we're going to have four underneath zone defenders, you probably want guys who are a little bit quicker from the slot.

8:24They can kind of work in and out of those zones a little bit more easily. Or if teams are going to be a little bit more cover one oriented, guys that can just run away from some of these guys. And I think that was part of the math there. Now, if we're living in this world where it's guys are like either filling into that buzz, you know, that hook zone from depth, or they're not even playing there at all. And we're just playing with these three underneath defenders in quarters or cover two or whatever it's going to be. Those big tight ends, they don't need to move as fast to get into those zones.

8:51Like it's a little bit easier for them to just kind of like find that huge zone. Quarterbacks are going to pin it on the 6-5 target and it's a little bit easier for those guys to operate. And so I think from like a coverage and like box count perspective, that's part of why we've seen some of the shift that we're seeing.

9:05Robert Mays: And I also think back in that era where you had these teams playing a little bit more 11, you had some of these, you know, explosive kind of downfield play action passing games, or in the chief's case, no play action necessary. You had defenses just get smaller, right? I mean, you had teams now move from, move to a place where nickel just became the new norm in the NFL. And the types of nickel defenders that we were seeing in those, in that time, they were just smaller corners, right? Like that's how we used to profile nickel defenders were guys that didn't have the size to play outside of the guys that played inside to Ron Johnson, Mike Hilton, just guys that were a little bit smaller.

9:42Robert Mays: Well, I think that now as slot receivers got bigger for a lot of different reasons, right? Like I think Cooper cup is the best example of this, but you had this big slot type emerging and you had these guys who were 200 pounds and could really do a lot of dirty work as blockers in these sorts of 11 personnel offenses. And as a response to that, nickel started getting bigger, right? If we're going to play in nickel and we want to make sure that that guy isn't a liability against the run, that player needs to get bigger. Well, now if the nickels are 220 and your slot receiver is 185, 190 pounds, that is now a disadvantage for you.

10:19Robert Mays: And so now I think we're seeing more teams play a little bit more 12, even if they're getting nickel, because that second tight end is going to be a better credible blocker against those big nickel looks that we're seeing from teams like the Seahawks, teams like the Ravens. And so I think that to me is another one of those important shifts is that as players at certain positions on defense got bigger, now offenses have had to get bigger to answer that a little bit. Totally. And I think why teams got smaller was like they realized, well, in 2018, it was kind of easy, easier to generate explosives.

10:51So let's just get the guys who are really, really good at it. Like that was kind of the small hack in offensive football now. But if defenses are so dead set on taking that away it feels like there's a lot more value in just being balanced and whether that means run and pass whether that means in your personnel deployment instead of you know being in 11 personnel 85 percent of the time just keeping defenses a little bit on their toes in terms of personnel what kind of looks we're giving them what downs and distances we're even in because I think we live in a world now too where offenses do want to be in second and six more whereas in 2019 teams were kind of more okay playing a little bit more boom and bust because they were just like we can find the explosives one way or another

11:29Robert Mays: I think it's the down and distant situations and being not being able to find explosives but I also think it's how how many different ways as an offense are you dictating how the game is going to go to defenses and I think there's so many different ways we can talk about this but one of them is just how much base personnel you're seeing versus how much nickel personnel you're seeing and I think with the Rams specifically and we'll talk about the Rams a lot but there are also other teams that I think are doing important things in this world that are worth acknowledging. But with the Rams specifically, the Rams are at a place where they were getting all nickel all the time to 11 because that's all they played for a very long time.

12:05Robert Mays: They bypassed 12 personnel almost entirely. They had a season a couple of years ago. They played it a little bit more. But this year it was 11 or it was 13. And by going straight to 13, you're going straight to base defense, right? And so it's one of the only sure ways that you know you're getting base defense is to be in 13 personnel or 21 or 22. And if looking at the numbers this year, we got 57 % base to 12 personnel league wide per true media, it was 76 % base against 13 personnel. And so if more and more teams are going to try to consciously get teams into base in order to throw the ball, I think that putting three tight ends on the field is one way to do that.

12:44Robert Mays: But I also think that like you're saying, I think overall, the league has moved back to a place over the last couple years where you're trying to give away absolutely nothing before the snap. You're trying to make sure that you can do anything based on who's on the field and the way that you're lined up. And what's so interesting about that is that's a direct counterpoint to defenses doing that, right? When defenses got to a place where they were playing a lot of shell before the snap, one of the advantages of that is you could play any coverage you could do anything well and as offenses in 2018 we had a lot of under center play action and a lot of that under center play action was designed to have these big crossers and big shot plays against cover three we would the league went away from play action for a little while after we got to a shell-based world and if you look at the way the league has kind of shifted again over the last couple years it's really interesting because we've moved back to that place.

13:41Robert Mays: In 2023, per NextGen, we were down at 22.4 % play action league-wide. One team was over 30%, five teams were over 27 % in 2023. Last year, we went from 22.5 % 2023 back to 25.5 % last season. We went from one team over 30 % to four teams, and we had 10 teams that were over that 27 % mark compared to five teams in 2023. And so when I was watching that happen, I was like, well, why is this happening, right? Because if we're at a place where there's more shell coverage and you're not getting the same benefits off play action by hitting these explosives on these big crossers that you could hit in 2018, 2017, why are teams going to this?

14:26Robert Mays: And I think it's a couple of different reasons. One, by being under center and using play action, you create uncertainty. You just create fewer tendencies. You give yourself the opportunity to do anything in the same way that defenses can from their pre-snap looks. I think the other part of this, and it kind of gets to a conversation we can have about why the Rams have been able to be effective with this, teams that are really smart with play action, you watch teams that try to use play action in an old-school way. Remember, we talked about the quarterbacks this week, going back and watching the Titans and some of the ways they're trying to use play action.

14:56Robert Mays: They're trying to use these big crossers and goes in the same way you would in 2018. Well, if you're doing that in a shell coverage, there's overlap and those things just get eaten up. There's nothing there. If you go watch the Rams use play action, there are four or five eligibles out in the route consistently. And so we've gotten back to a place where there's more play action than there was a couple of years ago. And it likens more to what it looked like in 27, 2018. But the benefits of that are much, much different. They're built for a modern world. And so I think the play action and under center stuff completely ties into more tight ends.

15:29Robert Mays: It all aligns together in a place where you're putting the defense on their heels consistently by playing this way. And I my hypothesis for why we've kind of arrived back there, you know, teams being willing to more play action. I think it is now clear that like defenses have kind of showed their hand. This is how defenses want to play. Now I think it allows offenses to be like, OK, now we have a better sense of how we actually want to run the ball. Because how much did we talk about two or three years ago where it felt like McVay was kind of in a transition period with how he wanted to run the ball?

16:00And Kyle Shanahan was in a transition period with how he wanted to run the ball. And some of these guys were just in this transition period. Now, I think we know, like, you know, McVay has totally shifted what he wanted to do, where it used to be that 11 personnel kind of tight with our receivers. And it was a lot of like wide zone or wide zone or weak zone. For him, it was weak zone, especially like 2017, 2018. That's not really a world that you can live in right now. You just cannot be as effective doing that. And so he switched to like, hey, instead of creating these like fake long surfaces with having our wide receivers a little bit closer, how about we put three tight ends on the line and create a really wide surface?

16:35We're going to run duo and get vertical. And our running back is going to have potentially three or four lanes that he can bounce this through. It might not be the most explosive thing because you're basically doing like World War I style trench warfare. But it does give you incremental gains that get you into those second and fives where, again, you can remain under center. You can have the threat of play action. You can have the threat of pure pass if you want. And I think that that has really allowed offenses like McVay to really get ahead of the curve again.

17:01Robert Mays: If you look at it, if you look at the numbers out of 13 personnel last year, running the ball is inefficient out of those looks. It's still inefficient. I think part of that is because a lot of teams have gone to it in defined running situations where they are these short yardage moments. And so the most part teams being in these having personnel packages, the benefit you're getting is how much more explosive it makes you in the passing game against base defenses. And the Rams are better set up to do that compared to anyone out of 13 personnel, because what they're doing out of 13 personnel isn't traditional 13 personnel pass plays.

17:33Robert Mays: They aren't these like wadded up. We have one or two receivers out in the route type plays. They have these guys that even if Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee, they're not the most explosive athletes, but they're credible pass catchers, incredible movers. And when you combine that with Terrence Ferguson, if you go watch what the Rams do out of 13 personnel, they're doing 11 personnel pass concepts out of 13 personnel because Terrence Ferguson is such a viable vertical threat. And I think a lot of these teams kind of fall into this bucket. The Seahawks are another team that's absolutely worth bringing up here.

18:09Robert Mays: Like Seattle, it's in a different way, but is also helping. They're doing a really good job of dictating to opposing defenses by the way that they play. The Seahawks this year, they were, I believe, second in the league in the percentage of their dropbacks that came against base personnel. The Bears were number one. And if you go look at what Seattle's doing, it's some 12 and 13 personnel, but there's a lot of 21. There's a lot of 22. too. And Seattle's offense, when they're in those personal, those heavy personnel groupings, they're doing a little bit of everything. They'll break it out into empty.

18:39Robert Mays: You know, they'll have four or five guys out and do a lot of like really cool quick game stuff. Like it's not just, you know, these wadded up shots down the field type things. It helps make them more explosive. And we can talk about that, but it's a multifaceted approach out of these heavy personnel groupings. And I think the bears are going to be the team that I'm really interested to watch this year and how they take advantage of it because now they have three guys at tight end that can seriously move and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see a Bears team this year when you combine like 12 and 13 personnel will it be 40 percent of the time will it be 35 percent of the time like I think we'll see a number that feels jarring because of the way that their roster is built and some of the avenues you can now explore because of the personnel that you have and I don't think that would be that crazy like one they obviously you know drafted another guy this year but like the first year ben johnson got there they said 10th overall let's draft one of these guys and make sure that he can be like that flex style of you know be in the slot be out wide if we want to kind of like seattle has really done and obviously they have done with colston loveland but he can be on the line and he can create a lot of those i think they're a good example too because the what they're trying to do is very different to me from the rams like the rams are 13 personnel and then it's a lot of duo and they're trying to just get vertical push the the bears are a lot more like how wide can we create this surface so we can get to the edge and the same is true of honestly Seattle a lot of their stuff when it looks a little bit more normal and it's just some of their why why stuff they're trying to like say hey especially last year when they had Kenneth Walker it was like can we just make sure this guy is getting outside the numbers on a run concept because that's what our running backs are good at and then that allows you to get into all the other stuff and so I think it is interesting that a lot of these teams even if we're seeing more 12 and 13, it is often coming from a different place.

20:24Some of it is like by necessity, like the Steelers last year, right? Like they just didn't have good wide receivers. And so they end up in the spot where they're like, we're just going to put a bunch of beef on the field, try to run as much as we can. And whoever our ISO receiver is here, we're just going to throw go balls. We're going to throw slants to them and stuff like that. And so that's obviously not, they're not a team I don't think teams should be taking lessons from. But I think it is interesting that this 12 and 13 world that we're living in is not like everyone is doing the exact exact same thing you're really arriving at a lot of different places with

20:54Robert Mays: it about a little bit but i think it's worth bringing up again just like how to me tied together a lot of the heavy personnel stuff is with the under center and play action rates that we've seen so if you look at the numbers on it from last year every team in the top half of the league in explosive pass rate well excuse me every team in the top 10 in the nfl last year in explosive pass rate was in the top half of the league in the percentage of their plays where they face base personnel while throwing the ball. Seattle and Chicago was at the top. New England was up near the top of that list. The Packers are up near the top of that list.

21:27Robert Mays: The Bills are up in that general range. And you can extend it to how many teams and how often teams are playing under center. Here are the top 10 teams last year in under center rate when throwing the ball. Rams, Seahawks, Bears, Lions, Bills, Niners, Packers, Vikings, Cowboys. Those are the only teams that were over 20%. I mean, that's all the teams that we think they're offenses you should follow. Here are the top 10 teams in explosive pass rate. Patriots, Packers, Seahawks, Bills, Lions, Rams, Colts, Bears, Jags, Cowboys. So eight of the top 10 in explosive pass rate were in the top 10 in under center rate when throwing the ball.

22:05Robert Mays: And I think it's for a bunch of different reasons. Like the under center stuff aligns with a lot more heavier personnel. So you're dictating it that way. But one of the things I found so interesting, and obviously you don't know this. The defense doesn't know how the offense is going to align before the play starts, but you have tendencies, you have identities, you have things that you're picking up on your game planning for last year out of the shotgun. Overall teams played 44 % base against 12 personnel when the offenses were in the shotgun under center, it's 56 and a half percent. And so what you are as a team, how often that your under center rate probably aligns at least a little bit with your willingness to run the ball.

22:45Robert Mays: Seattle ran the ball as much as anybody. The Bears ran the ball as much as anybody. The Rams run the ball a ton. And so defenses are game planning with that in mind. Like these under center heavy teams are these run heavier teams. So even in the same personnel grouping, you're getting juicier pass looks because of what the entire ecosystem and plan for your offense looks like. And to me, all of this stuff feeds into each other. The number of tight ends, the number of under center, the number of play action, it's all coming from like a similar sort of mindset and combining together to make these offenses and create these offenses that are giving themselves more juicy looks than a lot of other teams in the league.

23:22And another thing I want to add to like we're inevitably in a copycat league, right? Like so many teams have already proven they are trying to do this. And what's interesting is that if you look at like EPA per play with at least two tight ends on the field over the last five, six years. So even before we started getting this trend and then into this trend, it's kind of all the same league wide. It's like somewhere between negative 0.05 and negative 0.03. The difference is there are teams that are now elite at it. Like the top six over that last five year stretch, like individual teams who are top five or top six in EPA per play.

23:53The 25 Rams are up there. The 23 Seahawks are up there. The 24 Ravens. Last year's Colts are up there. And then the 2022 Chiefs. Funny enough, the one exception, like, that is not within the last three years, is the 2016 Falcons, which kind of always felt like an offense that was a little bit ahead of its time and always going to be an outlier in those ways.

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27:10Robert Mays: One of the other things I'm really interested in is talking to, and I mentioned this to Charlie when we talk a little bit later, but it's worth kind of digging into a little bit more here and talking to a lot of offensive coaches this spring, just wide ranging discussions, but this has come up several different times in those conversations where offenses, I think it's how often are you making sure that you're playing first down? or just avoiding third down, right? Like, and that can happen whenever. If it's second and eight and you're in the gun, it's third down. Well, 100%, you don't want to be in downs and distances where your hand is forced on the play sheet.

27:48You want it all to be open.

27:50Robert Mays: And so I'm wondering how much of a shift do we see in that, right? So if it's second and eight, are we going to see more teams because fourth down is live where you're under center on second and eight and you're trying to still give yourself a chance to do a little bit of everything. You can run the ball out of that. You can use play action out of that. The Bears and Seahawks last year were at about a 40 % run rate on second and seven plus. They were the two highest in the league. League average is about 28%. Teams last year played base defense to 12 personnel 41 % of the time on second and seven plus.

28:26Robert Mays: So if you're only getting base 40 % of the time and you're getting nickel 60 % of the time, But now we have four downs to work with. Should teams actually be running the ball more or should they be willing to present those looks more often on second and seven plus than they typically would have in the past? Like, I think all of this stuff is related. All of this stuff kind of plays into like the same mindset and the same thinking. And it's not to me an accident that you're seeing more and more teams that the same teams are doing all the shit. Like all the same teams are like bucketed this way.

28:59And they probably should. The answer is they probably should because so much of what the push and pull of offensive and defensive football is one side of the ball kind of pushing something to an extreme and saying, I dare you to do the thing that I know counters this. Because there's a counter to everything in football. There are answers. The sport in some ways is solved. Like there's moving targets, but it's like we know what the counters to a lot of things are. and the counter to, yeah, if they're going to play 40 % lighter boxes and nickel and stuff on second and eights that feels like a passing down and they're going to treat it that way, we'll start running the bottom until that number moves up to 50, 55%, and it's less of a guarantee that the defense feels like they can operate that way.

29:39Robert Mays: I mean, let's just play it out. Let's say it's second and seven. You are willing to run the ball. You gain four yards. We get to third and three. Now I think we're at a place where, especially where you are on the field, and teams are starting closer to the goal line than they ever have. So now we're going to be in more down in distances and more series are going to start when you are closer to a place where you're probably willing to go for it on fourth down. And so if it's second and seven, you run the ball for four yards and it's third and three again, third and three, I think, once again, becomes a play where you probably should be willing to run the ball depending on where you are on the field.

30:12Robert Mays: If it's like the minus 40 or closer, the minus 45 or closer, you probably should be willing to run the ball on third and three in a way that you wouldn't be willing to do that 10 years ago. And that makes tight ends more valuable because tight ends are going to be helpful in those situations. And tight ends give credence to you being able to run the ball there or play action there. Like it all kind of just feeds into each other in a way that I think really speaks to the moment that we're experiencing. That's a great point. There's a much higher chance now that with the way that the league works that your first third and three is that is that what like the you know the minus 42 or something like that as opposed to that used to be the 27 at the 27 you're not even gonna you know even if you get to fourth and one you're not gonna think about going for it but at the 44 I might think about it depending on what the game situation is or whatever it's going to be so I think that that that's a really good point is that you are so much quicker to get into a scenario where like you are in four down territory whereas 10 years ago you were at least one first down away if not two from really feeling like you were even in that territory at all what i think is cool about this is that you know 12 personnel isn't a new idea it we the league was more 21 before the sport just changed entirely in 2007 when the patriots did what they did right i mean we were a very kind of 21 heavy 20 personnel heavy sport before that happen and then the league starts to go to 11 but 12 personnel is not a new idea i think the types of players that you're seeing in these 12 personnel looks that to me is what feels like it's changing a little bit where i think we used to have and this is anecdotal but i assume there there will be numbers that would back this up the way i envision like old 12 personnel it's a couple different things like if you're the eagles you have two like kind of pass catching options right or like one defined pass catching option in urts and then one that's maybe a little bit multifaceted and a Goddard.

32:04Robert Mays: And I think that's kind of how I think about it, where you have these teams that have one, maybe slightly more traditional tight end and one guy that's purely a pass catcher, the Bills. Right, like the Bills with Dalton Kincaid, I feel like are like this. But I think what you're seeing now, and the Rams are kind of like this, but I think, you know, the Bears are specifically like this. And I think they're the team that I would go back to here. And I think even Rauch kind of plays into this. If you have two or three guys that can do enough of both things, that are credible enough blockers and credible enough receiving threats, then you get to a place where you can do anything.

32:38Robert Mays: You can do anything out of that 12 personnel. Because I think one of the problems was, and I go back to the Bills again, the thought process with some of these teams was, okay, we're going to play in 12 personnel. If you match us with nickel, we'll just grind you down. If you match us with base, we'll be able to throw the ball all over you. Well, if your second tight end is not a good enough blocker to take advantage of those nickel looks, then you don't create an advantage for yourself anywhere because you're just going to be getting nickel all the time and you don't have an advantage in the passing game and you can't realize an advantage in the running game.

33:09Robert Mays: But if you have enough guys, the two to three tight ends that you have that can do both and clear the bar in both, then you do realize those theoretical benefits that teams tried to talk themselves into in previous years but couldn't actually access. And I think we'll see more teams seeking out the exact types of guys we saw drafted on day two because even if they're not dynamic players, they check the box in both areas enough where it gives you a path to being this sort of 12 and 13 personnel team. I think that is 100 % true of the 12 personnel stuff. Some of the 13 personnel stuff, I think specifically with the Rams, it almost feels like for that exact reason, that's why they're not a 12 personnel team.

33:51Is that some of their guys are a little bit on the lower end, even still with blocking. And so they make up for it by like, hey, just throw another one out there and we'll get these long surfaces and stuff that we want and guarantee base like you said in 13 i

34:03Robert Mays: actually think you need one guy who is different than that right like yeah that's a good point they can't all just be yeah 13 i actually think you need one guy who has a little bit of verticality to him and maybe this is just a result of watching what terrence ferguson does for the rams but you see how impactful that skill set is and so i predicted to like the teams that we're going to do it this year like the chargers right like gadsden has enough giddy up to him where if you're in 13 can he be at least a field stretcher for you to create space and act more as a wide receiver in those looks and the exact same way that terrence ferguson can for the rams for the bears i think loveland can credibly do that the steel the the seahawks are interesting like i think arroyo is he moves really well i wonder if he has like that sort of vertical push to him but i think that skill set among your tight end group is going to be really valuable because that's the thing that allows you to run 11 personnel plays out of 13.

35:02That is a good point. It does feel like there's going to be one team who has to like tries to, but actually the Steelers are kind of this, obviously the Steelers landed in a spot where they had to use 13 personnel because their receivers were just non-existent outside of DK Metcalf. To me, none of those guys are necessarily like true vertical pushers in the way that like Terrence Ferguson is like you could ask Darnell Washington to run 25 yards down the field and just be a skyscraper but that is different than having Terrence Ferguson like on some of these you know uh these like throwback wheels or some of these actual seam routes or whatever they're going to be and so that is a good point that like if you want a good example of what it looks like to be a 13 personnel team where you don't actually have that verticality it's there's a lot of differences between the Steelvis and the Rams but that is one of them.

35:46Robert Mays: The one last thing I want to say before we talk about what the next step of this looks like, potentially about how defenses will counteract it. I also just think when you look at the teams that are really good at this and some of the concepts that you're seeing out of it, there's also just an air of unpredictability, not only to whether you'll run or pass out of those looks, but how the routes will distribute. Like if you have like a YY look to one side, you can have the outside tight end release inside and have the inside tight end block out. You can do so many different things. You can have one guy slice across the formation.

36:16Robert Mays: I mean, there are just so many iterations to how the play can play out. And the same way that we see motions or the out motion that the Dolphins were using a few years ago, or just fast motion in general, where it plays with the number counts right before the snap. Well, if those tight ends are lined up right next to each other, you can use like switch release type concepts where that number changes really quickly and guys just get lost. And the Rams are doing a ton of that last year. And so there's just so many different little layers and wrinkles. If you understand the benefits of this that you can access, the biggest question is going to be how many teams actually understand those benefits.

36:56Robert Mays: Like it is so easy to look at, oh, the Rams use 30 % 13 personnel last year. We're just going to do more of that. And that's all we're going to need to do on offense. When in actuality, if you're chasing, that's not even a trend like that. That's just like a very simple idea. But even if you're chasing last year's trend, you're still probably not going to be able to realize the benefits. And so I think we're going to see a lot of teams try to take some of the heat off of this from last year and not get what they think they're going to get out of it. And that's usually just how this thing goes.

37:27It's how it went with like the big cover three movement and stuff like that is that teams realize that it's a lot harder to do. And I think part of it with the Rams is like, it's obviously good foresight on their part of like finding this unique way to go about it and to build the room and do all this stuff that they did and make the offense different, get into different run concepts. It also works in large part because the two wide receivers are Puka Nakua and Devante Adams. Like when those guys are on the field, like that helps a lot when those guys are the receivers that you're putting out there.

37:55And so I think that there are like some lessons to be learned in terms of what we've talked about of just keeping defenses honest and making them play in the personnel types that you want and play into base. But I think you have to worry how much teams are going to over index into this a little bit, thinking that this is like a special sauce rather than like what the special sauce is, is just like finding the next thing. It's not that 13 personnel is special. It's that finding the next thing is special. That's why McVay is who he is, is that when we do this again in four years, if he's still coaching, McVay is probably going to be at the forefront of it for whatever we decide that the new offensive thing is going to be.

38:31Robert Mays: And so we've talked a lot about the Rams offense influencing what we're going to see. Do we see the Seahawks defense influence what the reaction is going to look like? Because I think in obviously the Seahawks, like you just said, with the Rams receivers kind of feeding into their ability to play this way. The Seahawks are able to play a specific way on defense against their team personnel because of the players that they have. Even worry, but also just the way that their front can hold up against those looks playing out of nickel. But if I'm looking at it and I'm trying to figure out, all right, what is the offense trying?

39:04Robert Mays: What advantage are they trying to create by playing this way? The real answer is that they're trying to put you in looks that are advantageous for them to throw the ball against. So isn't the most logical response to that just saying we're not going to do that? Like, we're just not going to play base defense often enough for you to have those looks. We're going to play nickel. And if it means that we have to die slow, we're going to die slow. And that's what the Seahawks said. And in reality, the Seahawks held up when the Rams ran the ball out of 13 personnel. Last season, there were 123 runs out of 13 personnel against nickel looks in the NFL.

39:40Robert Mays: 32 of those, so a quarter of them, were the Rams against the Seahawks. So in reality, it doesn't happen very often elsewhere. Like, that was the majority of it. But the Rams running game was less effective running the ball out of 13 against nickel than it was on all their other runs from last year. Again, part of that is that the Seahawks are uniquely set up to give you trouble. But I still think if I'm just playing the odds and trying to figure out how do I stop the offense from doing it what it wants to do, just being willing to line up in lighter personnel packages with a bigger nickel against these looks, to me, feels like the correct response.

40:15I think it probably is. but I think teams need to understand why that works for Seattle specifically. Obviously, part of it is Nick Emanwari is kind of a unique talent in the way that he's built for that position. But part of the reason they can also do that is the way that they've built the front. I mean, think about the guys who are setting the edge for them. Demarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu, like Derek Hall. It's guys who, if you are a little bit lighter in the box initially, whether that's by box count or by, you know, it being a 215-pound safety instead of a 240-pound linebacker, Well, these guys are buying you more space and they're buying these second and third level fitters more time to get there.

40:51And I think that this was this has been a failing of some of the teams that have tried to live a little bit more in this too high world as them either not understanding how important that is or just not being able to acquire the talent for that for them to be able to get there. Whereas obviously with Seattle, how many of their resources have they spent on making sure they have those guys with second round picks and and trades and just all these other stuff. First round picks even with Byron Murphy, obviously.

41:16Robert Mays: the role players that you have along your defensive front become so important if you're trying to build the type of defense that can hold up against these looks. You need those guys that just, I mean, you look at the way Nwosu was built and just how stout he is and players like that. Derek Hall just got$14 million a year as one of those kind of physical secondary edge players that the Seahawks have. I wanted to ask you, what is your, what's your answer to what comes next? Like, what do you think is like the next wave of this, the next phase of this specifically with what defenses might do? I mean, I think part of it actually is going to be, I think even the Seahawks are actually a decent example of this.

41:59I do think, and maybe this is me just playing into some of my biases. I think being stouter at linebacker is going to be important again, because we lived in a world for the last five, 10 years, where we've been more willing to get these guys who are more run and chase players. And I think when you were living in more of a preloaded, you know, one high load the box role, there were just more opportunities and more chances for plays to spill out to the perimeter and for those guys to be able to run and chase players, or you're immediately like firing guys into gaps and you want them to be there quickly.

42:30Now that I think we live in this more like they're trying to choke you out as a run unit and you just need those guys to step up and take back space for you. and plays are getting funneled back to the inside, one, with the way that offenses are aligning and two, with the way that defenses are aligning, I do think being a little bit stouter in that sense is going to be a lot more important. And it's why, like, Ernest Jones is, obviously he's a good coverage player because he's smart. He's not, like, particularly good sideline to sideline. Like, that's just not really where he went. He's just smart and long.

42:57Those are the two things that he is. And that's kind of, I think, smart, long, and can you step down and hit a guard? I do think that those things are becoming a little bit more important. I don't think we're ever going to get back to a world where it's 2009 and Derek Johnson is one of the premier linebackers. I don't think we're ever going to get there, but I do think having a little bit more of that is probably going to become important.

43:17Robert Mays: It's definitely the thing that we're watching as the season starts and as the next season unfolds is where all of this goes and seeing the craze that happened in the draft and just seeing the league so directly respond to what the latest trend looks like. I guess it shouldn't be surprising, but it's always jarring even in the moment. So we've got a lot of time here to chew on with the next stage of the tight end revolution looks like. All right, before we get to our conversation with Charlie, let's get to our next quick break. Ever been at the checkout wishing you had more cash to spend? You're watching the total climb, doing mental math, getting ready to put your favorite yogurt back.

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45:37Robert Mays: Charlie Colder is a guy who got had 10 catches last year, got$8 million a year because he, in a lot of ways embodies exactly what we're talking about. And so it was very cool to get his perspective on what this moment has looked like for somebody who is currently living it. So let's get to our conversation with Charlie right now, joining us now, which I'm very excited to say it is Los Angeles chargers tight end, Charlie Kohler. Charlie, how you doing, man? Good. Thanks for having me on. What's up, guys? Very much looking forward to this conversation. During your justifiably viral press conference, that's what I will call it, you said something that on top of the creme brulee and on top of all the talk about blocking that was just incredible to hear, you mentioned that you were a nerd who really enjoyed thinking about kind of the trends in the NFL.

46:27Robert Mays: And that piqued my interest because you will have a home on this show if that is the case. And I think one of the more interesting parts about this is that you are at the center of one of those trends right now. Like the, we are having a moment for tight ends in the NFL. And I thought, what better way to explore what that has looked like over the last year or two than by talking to someone who is currently living it day to day in the way that you are. My wife said my face was on her screen too much. So I know I need to shut up. It's time I'm doing interviews. Right, it's fine. I just kind of speak off the rip and sometimes get a little long winded.

47:06But no, I think what the tight ends are doing right now is super cool. I think it's a lot of stuff going on. Look forward to talking about it.

47:12Robert Mays: So I want to just go to your offseason and what it looked like. Because when we were previewing free agency this year, you know, we do little categories and like, you know, who are guys that maybe are a little bit under the radar that you're excited about seeing where they land. And you were somebody that came up several different times. I was like, man, Charlie Kohler is somebody that I think that you could get him at a decent price. He's somebody that can come in and contribute and be a wide tight end and do a little bit of everything. And then you get the contract that you got as early as you got it.

47:40Robert Mays: And I think that in a way, that kind of is like a signal of where and how the position is being valued. And then it extends into the draft, and we'll talk about that. But I want to just get a sense from you of when did you know that you would have that sort of market in free agency? Like how early did you have a sense that that was going to happen? It's still like, I'm still like kind of a cheap bastard. And so it's really like, it's hard for me to like process that amount of money. Sometimes it's like, I'm just incredibly floored and grateful. You know, I still have trouble paying for the cheese on the cheeseburger.

48:17Sometimes a bebop's paying. But, you know, it kind of starts to go. I think what I'm learning is like the combine's a big time kind of um they kind of use it as like a pseudo information gathering for the free agency as well and um I knew my agent went there that like it was there was a good chance it was going to be a good free agency um I think a lot of teams you know it's just like I believe in myself as a player but I know like my stats weren't that good like I don't know I think I had like 10 catches last year which is like it's not that many catches and then it's a stats-based league you know it's a production league and so like I believed in myself as a player um like I know like I've put on the tape that I can do the blocking and I obviously got to keep Kim better but but I really didn't have a lot of receiving tape and so I was just like hoping that you know people saw that like I could still do that like that's all I did in college um it's not like I forgot we just had a really good room you know a lot of mouths to feed in Baltimore um so that was like pretty cool when combine came around and I was like hey I got I don't want to you know sell fall soap I think there's a good chance it's going to be a really good free agency a lot of teams like you and kind of see see you the way that we see you as a player you're able to be on the edges and set edges but also make plays in the play action and down the seam and stuff and uh so kind of that week or two going into free agency i had a good idea but you never actually know until like the money's there and so once we got the monday and it started quick and i'm like okay this is gonna be this gonna be good and then you

49:41Robert Mays: i you said that you had had like a zoom with a lot of the stakeholders there whether joe mike jim Jim and they kind of laid out the vision that they had for you and like what they expected of you in the offense just tell me a little bit about that like what were kind of the elements of that and how they saw your role and how it might be expanded compared to again like you said a more limited version of what you did in Baltimore yeah it was an awesome zone like I like I said I have no hard feelings towards Baltimore like they made a great offer and like I love my time there like I love my teammates like like playing with like Lamar and Derek and those guys like that's some of the coolest things ever like I grew up watching them win natties and heismans um but it was just like the way that they kind of laid it out the chargers is the way that you know like you subscribe like I kind of saw myself like not just one dimensional be able to help in both facets and also I mean I love McDaniel's zone scheme I think it fits well the ability to you know attack edges went off the ball play in combination with both the running backs the fullbacks and the tackles and tight ends um and I just love the energy man like a lot of guys um you know it's funny with McDaniel like you see all like you know the funny press conferences and the outfits but like the guy loves football the guy's a the guy's a whiz when it comes to the run game um and just hearing him and coach Harbaugh and Chandler and just talk about it and then Joe is just like it was just what I thought of myself and like the way I see the game like very reflective of the way they were talking and like kind of right then I knew though hey this is like a really good spot.

51:09I can see myself flourishing here and able to help the team do better. And then let's, let's make this work.

51:15Robert Mays: So I, the center of all of this, I think is just the shift that we've talked about a lot over all of last season and then into this off season. So I just want to throw out a couple of the numbers just to give people some context in the sense of like what this shift has looked like in the NFL. And so in 2023, the league was like 62.4 % 11 personnel. So we're, you know, getting close to like two thirds of every snap. Last year, we were at 56.3%. So in a two year span, we had a massive drop off from the amount of three receiver sets we're seeing to where the league was going. We're in a place now where a guy who had 11 catches last year can make$8 million a year.

51:57Robert Mays: It's a wonderful place for you. But it's To me, it's a very interesting spot for the league, right? So that can happen in free agency. You look at what happened on day two of the draft and this run on guys who have this more traditional kind of wide tight end background going so much earlier than we expected and having this early run on guys at that position. So I just wanted to ask you as we get into this conversation, why do you think this is happening? Like, why do you think players of your kind of profile and archetype are having this sort of moment in the NFL over the last year or two? It's a pretty sick rate of return on catches for me.

52:33It's like a million dollars a catch, man. Incredible. I got to get some stocks. And I joke about that, but you get paid for production, but also what they see you to do. And I know I can catch the ball way more than that. I think, man, how much time we got? I can go on that.

52:50Robert Mays: We got a lot of time. I want you to go as deep as you please here. That's a dangerous conversation. I can go on a rant. She asked my wife. If I can go on tangents on tangents and have no idea where I started. I think there's a ton of reasons. Might be kind of like too basic and like too simple breaking it down. But like the NFL is a business. Like it's a business to make money just like every other business. And I think that, you know, one of, I think one of the reasons is that tight ends are cheaper than receivers. You know, you look at, you look at tight ends around the league and like even rooms that are really well compensated tight ends might be you know a cumulative 20 or 30 million in the tight end room receivers can be 40 plus one guy and i think like i think part like i don't know i'm not in the gm meetings but i think part of it is like hey if we can play 12 personnel and pay these two guys 15 million versus 11 personnel we're paying the receivers you know 70 million i think i think you know as tight ends will grow hopefully the compensation will grow with it but I certainly think money is part of it it's hard to think that it's not and then I think from if you take the money out of it from a football perspective like I remember like I used to honestly watch more football outside when I before I got in the NFL because you know you watch much more film and um and you're just a lot more football so I remember like in high school and college I was like you kind of start to see the trend of like the smaller faster receivers and like football is just like a big ebb and flow between offense and defense so like all right offenses get faster defenses play deeper coverages you know defenses play nickel and then big nickel and cover two and shell and force you to go on you know 10 12 14 play drives and that's very difficult like it's very difficult and I think tight ends kind of help with that stuff because when you are forced to be efficient on every on much higher percentage of the plays you know you don't have the 30 yard bombs all the time you just can't have zero and negative yard plays I think that's where like in the passing game you know tight ends are larger and so if you're going to throw the ball over the middle or short things below the sticks like they're just bigger targets like it's easy to throw a stick route to a tight end it's easy to throw over the middle basic and i think in the run game too it's like i think coaches are a little more comfortable having tight ends block a big nickel versus a receiver because you know somebody's like somebody's nickels are not good matchups like somebody's nickels are incredible like you know i think KM in Baltimore, Durham out here, like these guys are big, like these guys are dudes.

55:14And I think it's like very difficult to have, you know, your F receiver who might be 190 pounds trying to block the eye is 220 or 210. And so I think that's a big part of it. And then also, I just think it's like, like, it's kind of just like what is like trendy, if that makes sense. And like people, like teams that are having success with like, you know, they'll do the Super Bowls the last few years, like they're just littered with elite tight ends. And I think that like, teams try to replicate what teams are doing at the top like you know you saw um uh like i mean for example like we saw the chiefs in the entire kill just bombs everywhere like team are over cover two and like we're going to try to stop that or like you know you see kiddo and kelsey and the patriots and all these guys and super both good tight ends you know they replicate that in seattle and i think it's a i think it's a compliment and then the last thing is also i think i'll try to get off the soapbox but there's a lot of things i think the last thing is you know I think like this is kind of a guess, but I think with everything in football, like kind of works together.

56:16That's the crazy part of football. There's so many variables in every game, every offense, every season, the flow, the building of the offense. I think one thing you're seeing is like because of the nature of young and youth sports and high school and college being more and more about like money and less and less about development. I think that when you have guys that transfer and aren't able to build the same system, you know, when you are like for me, like right now I'm learning the offense of the Chargers. I'm just trying to learn the most basics. And then once you get that, you learn the details.

56:46And so I think from everyone in high school and college football, there's less development of the mental side of the game. And I think that affects every position, but more so than most, the most difficult position in sports, the quarterback. And I think that when you have, let's say maybe, I don't know, but maybe the quarterbacks are coming in maybe 10 % less developed on the mental side of the game 20 years ago compared to now, or now compared to 20 years ago. Well, now you've got to run the ball because it takes pressure off their plate, stuff like that. And it's not like a shot at quarterbacks.

57:16The quarterbacks in this league are elite. I don't know if there's, I mean, it's hard to find 32 humans in the world who can play quarterback. It's so difficult. and so I think that when you have this like huge confluence of events of tight ends are cheaper you know maybe quarterbacks aren't quite as developed coming in the league they're playing big nickel it just leads to why don't we just play 12 personnel or why don't we just play 13 personnel and I think it's like kind of a lot of all those things maybe some I'm missing also I'm just like one perspective I'm certainly not the best overall development of the league because I get tunnel vision on my own self you know it's tough for me to watch a game I don't necessarily I pick up, oh, I think the corner is really good.

57:53I'm watching the DNs. You know, I'm watching for myself. Like, I'm watching the DNs, the linebackers, the safeties, you know. So, but that was my try to be efficient. Two cents on the issue.

58:05Robert Mays: I think all of those are very important considerations. The financial one, I think, we haven't talked about enough, and it absolutely is part of this. Like, you can look at the top of the market, and even if you compare the top of the market, Trey McBride makes$19 million a year. Jamar Chase makes$40 million. what do you have 100 catches last year like i understand like like i get like you have a guy going to 4-2 and you take the top off the defense like there is like compensation that's needed for that but just from a money perspective like it's tough to pay one position group 60 million dollars and have money to build an entire team and that's just like the way the receiver market has gone because it's accelerated so much faster exponentially than tight ends and running backs and alignment so you've seen the same thing with edge defenders too like they have gone up like it kind of was edge and tackle now it's edge and so i i just think like all that stuff is everything is nothing happens in isolation nothing happens immediately it's all ripple effects down the line so the top of the market again you got 2x the guys at the top of the market top of the tight end market but even in free agency like i won't name names but there are guys that over the last couple years have gotten 10 million dollar aav contracts that are like fourth receivers that have very specific, like, situational roles.

59:16Robert Mays: You can pay a wide tight end in free agency. Somebody like you is going to be a starter less than that to be, like, an every-down player. And so the financial part of it totally makes sense to me. And then now we can get into, like, the cyclical kind of schematic element of it, right? Like we said, we get to a place in, you know, kind of coming out of, like, 2018 with the Chiefs and where offense is just, I mean, I think back to me always the tipping point moment or like the pinnacle moment is going to be that Monday night Chiefs-Rams game where it's like this is... 100 to 100, yeah. We get to the height of what offensive football feels like.

59:51Robert Mays: Offenses are so far ahead. And then you kind of get to the 2018 end of the season and, you know, we don't need to belabor this because we talk about a million different times, but you have the kind of Rams and Lions games or the Bears and Lions games against those Rams teams. You kind of see a little bit of a chink in the armor and then you get to the Super Bowl And, you know, Belichick just completely dismantles that Rams offense by playing a ton of quarters and just taking away all of those crossers and putting those down those six man fronts. And we get to a place where shell coverage is the norm in the NFL.

1:00:21Robert Mays: And so if you're going to have these teams playing in light boxes, you're going to have to be able to run the ball more efficiently. And one of the considerations with that, like you said, when we had when Nichols in the NFL, when Nichols were just the smallest cornerback you had that was playable. it makes a lot of sense for your 11 personnel, the slot receivers to be digging those guys out. When you have Nick Amonwari playing in the nickel, it's going to be a little bit harder for your 200 pound receiver, even on the bigger side, to be the one tasked with blocking those guys. And so that to me feels like just the two kind of cyclical schematic things that have kind of pushed us to this place where just by necessity, if you're going to be blocking that nickel now, a guy built like you has a much better chance of accomplishing that against Derwin James than a guy who's 190 pound slot receiver.

1:01:12Yeah, I agree. I mean, as much as like the, like legal is getting faster and stuff like it's still like, it's always going to be who wins the trenches, wins the game most of the time. And that's like, you just see in the super bowl, like this past year Seattle was so good up front on both sides of the ball. The year before that, who was the Eagles? They're so good. Like it's just, if you have like good old line, tight end D line linebacker play, Like if you were able to, I know like the stats, like say what they do and like analytics is a huge part. That's part of it's big. But there is a difference mentally to being able to run the ball at will and pass the ball at will.

1:01:47Because like passing the ball, like it's frustrating. I know like from defense it's frustrating. Like sometimes they're just good. If you can run the ball at will, even when they're selling out, like that is demoralizing. Like as an offense, if you can't run the ball, that is demoralizing. And I think there's like an emotional element to it too, where people are kind of realizing like, Like, hey, maybe analytics say this is a little bit more efficient, or I don't know what they say. But if you can run the ball for four yards at will, you're going to win a lot of football games. I think, like, one thing that we kind of, kind of someone explained to me, too, a few years ago, and, like, it makes sense.

1:02:16It's, like, you come back to, like, the money thing. NFL wants to be a business to make money. All right. Who's the number one player that draws viewers on NFL? The quarterback. And it's, like, I think teams realize it, too. They're, like, we have to keep our quarterback healthy. How do we do that? And if you are in, everyone knows this, like there is nothing, there's probably something. There's not many things worse on a football field than being offensive tackle and you are constantly in passing situations and you are just, these DNs are teeing off. Like it's just, it's so difficult. They're so good.

1:02:46They're so good. And so I think when you are able to run the ball, you know, get under center, run the ball, play action, it takes so many hits off your quarterback. and I think that is like kind of sometimes I sometimes miss that in my seeing of the league it's like how do we keep you know in Baltimore Lamar healthy how do we keep Herbert healthy because it's just like these guys are so good and like it's not a shot our backup quarterback I think we got a lead backup quarterbacks here I think Trey and DJ are really good but like Justin's our starter how do we keep him healthy and I think when you can put him under center and you can run the ball you can play action you can get a line and able to set the tone on the D-line instead of always retreating.

1:03:24I think all those things are way easier to sell under center and also way easier to sell in 12 and 13. You know, it's like if you're in chocolate and open, this little token fake like doesn't get people a lot. Like the D-ends are like, you're really telling me they're going to run outside zone when they got a receiver trying to block me? Like it's not going to happen. And so I think those like are all things that are pushing this kind of usage and I'm sure it'll go up and it'll go down. It'll go up and go down just like everything in the nfl but i definitely think it's trending in that direction and you can see like you said that like like we talked about in the draft like i honestly i didn't really i was getting married on the draft weekends i was not paying attention to the draft i was marrying my wife and we were we were partying so it was a good time but i saw after there was like a huge run in this uh i don't know what round it was what round was it it's like second and third it started in the second round i saw i was like oh my goodness i was looking at the pick list and i couldn't believe how many in a row.

1:04:18And I think it is. It's just like people are kind of starting to value. And I think that is super cool as a tight end because like, you know, selfishly, I'd like to see tight end succeed. You know, it's super cool to see that. I just think it's like chicken or the egg. I'm not sure, but it's just kind of all trending that direction.

1:04:34Robert Mays: When you're going into a game and you guys play against Miles Garrett twice a year, right? That's not fun. Well, thankfully, all the guys that still are in the AFC North are throwing a party right now. So you're having to play against him twice a year and i'm sure and this and it's interesting it goes back to what you're saying about how much edge rushers are getting paid making sure that 40 million dollar now 50 million dollar edge rusher doesn't get 40 chances when the other team is in the gun to rush the passer when you're on a team like you guys were in baltimore like you guys likely will would be with the chargers where you're running the ball in order to kind of control how the game feels can you notice the impact that has on the star pass rushers you play against can you notice like how that changes the complexion of the game when you're willing to commit to running the ball and using play action at that sort of clip browns are such a tough example of that because like they are so talented their dc was so good at using their personnel like they were the biggest boomer bus defense in the nfl like but they knew that so like they're okay giving up 15 yard explosives because the next time it's going to be second and 10 because their linebacker got a tackle for loss and what do you know miles gerich rushing the passer like they know what they're doing like their personnel and their scheme fit together perfectly that's why they were so good you know it's so many other teams you know are bend don't break they're okay with second and seven and third and four that defense was downhill everything every like that's why like you should be we ran a pretty cool like wham play on him and it hit for like 80 because we kind of got him going downhill and Derek hit the A gap and then bounced out.

1:06:10But even then, like, then you're back in first and 10. And it's just, it's very difficult versus those teams to run the football and control it and play action. But to answer your question, you do try to do that, obviously. Like, you're trying to get in second and five and third and two, and you're trying to put thoughts in their head. And then also, like, I mean, it's Miles. Like, I'm like, we're like all competitive. like I'm going to go in there and I'm going to try to set the tone and take it to him just like every tackle does. But that guy's unbelievable, man. Like maybe that's the player of all time, like certainly in the conversation, you know.

1:06:45And so you just have to throw different looks at him, you know, crack tosses, wide zone, away from him, towards him, gap scheme, you know, boots, just got to try to do. There's certain players like that, you know, Miles, TJ, those type of guys, Trey, that are just elite. You know, that was the thing with the AFC North was like cool. It was like I'm not going to get much better defensive ends in the AFC North, like, you know, some of the best in the league. And the AFC West is the same way. You know, you got Max and K-Mac, elite, elite players. So, yeah, I mean, it's definitely you try to, like you said, take it to them and set the tone with the run game.

1:07:17Sometimes it's just like, you know, actually your football was pretty good here, but he just ran around. Yeah. Ran right through you. So, like, those are always, like, it's, you know, it's the NFL. Like, you're never going to play. And, like, it's a thing you got to have thick skin. You got to have a short memory. You're just going to get beat sometimes. You got to get up, throw it in there again.

1:07:35Robert Mays: Curious. I mean, obviously you guys played with a ton of heavy personnel in Baltimore, right? I think in three of your four seasons, you guys were dead last in 11 personnel usage. The idea of using heavy personnel is not new, right? Like we've seen this over time, but as you're looking at like what the Rams did in their 13 personnel and maybe where the league is going a little bit compared to the types of heavy personnel you guys used in Baltimore, what are maybe some of the nuanced differences between those two approaches that you think are important for people to know as they see where the league is going?

1:08:06Robert Mays: It's just Pat Ricard. It's simple. Like 305 with less body fat than me. It's so annoying. I mean, I remember, here's an example. We played the Chargers in 2023.

1:08:25Yeah, that's 23 or 24. I can't remember. I think it was 24.

1:08:28Robert Mays: Yeah, I think it was 24. I think it was Jim's first year. Yeah. It was a game that broke my arm. 24. And their DNs were elite. It was they had K-Mac, Joy Bosa, Tule, Bud Dupree. And our response was to run power right at them like 70 times. It wasn't that many, but it felt like that. And that's just like a testament to how good Pat is. Like if we just like, they're so good, let's run Pat at them. Because like most teams, if you have a fullback kicking out for elite DNs, you're going to have problems the whole game. I'm not saying he's perfect. Those guys are really good. but like he allows you to do things that you can't do with most fullbacks and that's like I think Alex incredible but you know they're 75 pounds apart they're different players and so like Pat we were able to run so much more point of attack gap scheme than most teams can run because Pat's so good like I'm proud of myself like I think I'm really good at the trade and you know hitting the hip and climbing or like collecting I'm I think I'm really good at that but like Pat is so good at point of attack blocks on big guys, and it just makes it different than every other team in the league.

1:09:29Like, you look at the Rams. You know, I actually saw some of the Rams' film last year because we played them in crossover. Their 13 is so much like YYY wings, where our so much more, like, true, old-style high or strong formations, you know, gap scheme, wide zone, able to do different things. And then here, you know, it's obviously with McDaniel. They do a lot more of, you know, wide zone with that stuff, but it's more in combination with tight end and fullback, which I'm excited about. Super cool. But yeah, it's just like Pat, like he's just elite and he allows you to do things that you can't do with our team sometimes because he's so big.

1:10:03And it's like, he's just like a big dude.

1:10:05Robert Mays: But that's so interesting to me because I think that's a really important thing to point out. Like him, because he was kind of an amorphous player, right? Like he was a fullback. He's like 3 '10 with abs. I've been lying. My trainers said they're going to be abs for four years. Never happens. And he, but he was the guy where like, Like he played a – he was a fullback, but he would align like into the formation like a tight end at times. Like he played tight end a lot in terms of like the actual deployment. But he's a 305-pound guy. And you mentioned the Rams. And like this is what I think is so interesting is that when the Rams were doing what they were in 11 personnel, they were able to run 12 personnel plays out of 11 personnel.

1:10:41Robert Mays: That's what made them so dangerous. They also have receivers that – they have some of the most willing blockers receivers I've ever seen. 100%. And so they were able to play these like 12 personnel looks out of 11. Well, now they're able to play 11 personnel plays out of 13 because all of those guys can run a little bit. And so I think that's a key difference is that like we why tight ends aren't new. But now having all of your tight ends have at least a certain clear, a certain bar of athleticism. So now you can do a lot of the same things with multiple tight ends on the field. that feels like a necessary component to me of seeing through like the idealized version of what the league wants this to be yeah i agree i think it's super cool here too because you know we also have different bodies you know we have five guys that have played real football in the nfl you know me chief ronde scott and alex so like you have you know different size fullbacks different size tight ends you have big fullbacks smallback big and small like you can do so many cool things and I started to see what McDaniel cooks up.

1:11:43But yeah, I think that, like you said, it's like, I understand with, like, it's all, I mean, coaches aren't dumb. Like, they know, like, what the personnel is, what they're using. And like you said, like, you might not want the, you know, your third or fourth tight end running, like, a choice route to win on third down. But, like, you can get a 13 personnel run all go. You can run high-low concepts, you know, flood concepts. And, like, they're big bodies. And so, like we talked about, you know, with the more and more teams trying to just keep everything in front of their safeties having bigger bodies underneath is an easier target like it's just a geometry thing like they're just wider range and i think like the rams do a good job of the two because they all like they're all willing to do both and i actually i didn't it's funny because when i watched the rams earlier in the year they weren't doing that as much because we played them like i mean we played like week six and they were not doing that very much that game was the first time they really

1:12:34Robert Mays: dabbled in it that game was like the first time they saw it and it was it was actually like talking to people there, they kind of backdoored their way into it. It was kind of driven by them doing a self scout and struggling in short yardage. And the reason that they wanted to start doing it is they wanted to widen the edges on run plays. And by doing it that way, they kind of stumbled into all the advantages of game that have been the passing game, which is also just a fun part of this, like innovation by accident is the best, is like the best way to innovate. And it seems like that's kind of what happened.

1:13:05Robert Mays: But that game against you guys is really the first time that they tried any sort of 13 personnel because they wanted as a way to run the ball in certain situations. I agree. I mean, I could get on another show box about how I think YY wings and wide zone and tide zone are better than just one tight end. You're just extending the edge. Like when you have like, if you're going to run, you know, I know they run a lot of like, I don't know if they call it duo or tide zone. It's the same thing basically, but you know, their vertical run scheme. When you have that true, you know, it seems like the way they teach it you know as a gap read backs like most teams so the ball can wind all the way back you just end up where the edge setter is a small guy unless they're in like huge personnel because you know even if you're in a true under front you know you got shade five nine the nine tech has two guys outside of them and so usually i have to walk up a safety or nickel or a back hole and you end up having an edge guy that you really don't want sitting in the edge and it makes it for those wind backs are there or they play too wide and downhill is there same thing in wide zone like when you run to a two tight end set, you end up oftentimes able to stress the nine sec more.

1:14:06Like these nine secs are really, really good in this NFL. You got to find ways to affect them. And I think like that's the unique nature of the multiple tight end run zone schemes is you can affect the edges more, which at the end of the day is one of the most important parts of running the football is can you affect the edges?

1:14:23Robert Mays: What is one other maybe quiet benefit of multiple tight, because I think that's a fascinating point. What are maybe one or two other quiet benefits of these multi-tight end looks that I'm not thinking enough about? Like when you think about their biggest benefits, what are the first things that come to mind for you? I think because of the nature of the tight end position, you are forced to learn more than like receiver and running back. Because, you know, it's just like you are forced to learn almost all of the run game and almost all of the pass game. So they can sometimes be a little more amorphous of what position they can play.

1:14:57this isn't a shot like the receivers running backs in this league are really smart they do a great job but um i think sometimes that helps a little bit because like we're naturally forced to learn like the both the run in the pass game and all the run game schemes like you know i don't know how most i don't know how every team does it but like most teams you know in the nfl like the receivers have rules like push push crack ball to them whatever um it's a tight end just kind of force you to learn um a little more of it like in college is when i first realized that like we would get the signal that the quarterbacks got and everyone else on signal.

1:15:29So that kind of makes sense. Titans got to learn a little bit more. I think that's a big one. I think it makes coaches feel comfortable. I guess there's no shot at position. It's just the way that football works. Trying to think. I think I was talking about the money. That's a big one too. I mean, I just think a lot of it comes down to of like the play action in the run game is just more, it feels realer out of 12 and 13 personnel. And I think that's a big part of it. You know, boots to the tight ends, away from the tight ends, you know, wide zone play action, gap scheme, you know, you can do some more things.

1:16:07Trying to think what else. I mean, obviously tight ends motion at times, so the receivers. I just think that, like, it's kind of the way the league is going. Like, people try it and they either like it and they don't. And I think, like, you know, the Rams have a lot of success with it. But I also like, because it is with the, like the kickoff rules and stuff, like you start closer to the end zone most of the time, you just, it just feels like you, I don't know if this is true or not, but it feels like a higher percentage of plays are short yardage or red zone plays because you start from the 35 or whatever, so the 20.

1:16:42So, you know, you're three downs from the fringe or two downs from the fringe. and I feel like, again, like it kind of comes back to like the bigger body thing. Like it's helpful to have bigger bodies in smaller areas because there's just less space. And I think like the kickoff rule also affects it in ways we don't really think about. Like you get the ball at 35, you have a one explosive, you're in field goal range. And what happens in field goal range? The defense goes more and more, just less and less. And I think that's also kind of pushing the tight ends in the league more.

1:17:10Robert Mays: And just thinking about how often teams are going for it on fourth down, how the fact that now third medium becomes a really viable rundown. And so if you're going to have one more viable rundown, the importance of having personnel that you can run out of becomes even more important. Like I think overall, and talking to a lot of offensive coaches this spring, just this shape, like the chasing of how few times can we play third down and how many times can we play first and second down, even on third down? It really does seem like a really important battle right now is the best defenses just have such a good handle on how to pick on pass protection and define passing situations.

1:17:46Robert Mays: And so there are just so many different things and ways you're chasing those moments and having more tight ends is a way to do that. The last thing I'll ask you, and this is putting you on the spot, but I'm really curious as we think about this cycle, this kind of curve of schematics, and now we have more tight ends to kind of match these big, bigger nickels. And that's where the league is. What do you think is the defensive response to this? Like, what do you think the next phase of this? bit of evolution that we're seeing ends up looking like um I mean I think the first thing is just more base personnel I think the team's um just more base personnel and then also I think it's kind of what we're already seeing is the more evolution of the big nickel instead of the nickel you know if you're like if your nickel is you know they're when Kyle Nick Kim and or you're not really that worried in the run game because they're just really good players um so I think you will continue to see like it's a copy everything um in football and sports is copycat sports this team's doing it let's try it like you see like the big nickels like you know you saw mike mack do it with kyle in 23 and the defense was you know all-time good defense well there's a lot of reasons the defense was good but kyle's a big part of it um and so i think that'll continue like the draft will continue to focus on like those type of guys i also think that um i think there'll be um more guys like i'm thinking oh my god i'm blanking um number 43 for the vikings uh long hair um tell us josh mtel oh andrew van ginkle andrew van ginkle yeah i was thinking uh anzalone but that's just long there uh those guys have like a really unique role too because they can cover and i think you might see more of hey this is a guy that maybe isn't 270 at the edge and so maybe he'll give up a little bit but we can play bigger personnel overall and he can cover uh i think you'll see that too because it'll lap like the same way that a big nickel is a true you know nickel is a pass stopping defense allows you to play the run a base personnel with a little bit better cover guys is a run-stopping defense that allows you to play the pass.

1:20:00And I think you'll kind of see that. And then also, I just think you're going to see more and more of teams like, hey, you want to play tight ends 12 or 13? All right, prove it. Go 14 plays. All right, you did it. Great job. Do it again. And that's like really hard. Like Monk would always talk to us about like the percentage of drives that ended in touchdowns without an explosive. It's like crazy low. Like the percent of times you score a touchdown on a drive when you don't have a 12 plus run or a 16 plus pass is like crazy low and i think you're gonna just have to just continue to see like defenses force execution and be like hey if you want to do this okay do it and do it all game long and i think you're going to see like all right can we do that and that'll lead to the next thing i don't i don't see it as like a tight ends are playing more cover zero fest because i just think teams are kind of trying to make you go one of the benefits is we've like

1:20:49Robert Mays: come to understand them is that if teams are going to play more base, the menu shrinks. There are just fewer things that defenses can do out of base. And then is that, do you notice that like when you, when you see a team in base or when you know a team is going to play base, just anecdotally, like how much less do you feel like you have to worry about as an offense when you see that they only have four DBs on the field? It's just, it's just like you think about, okay, what are the two most complicated things a defense does? For school players is coverages. And for interior guys, it's like stunts and blitzes, right?

1:21:19And so when you have base personnel, yeah, you'll get more stunts from the D-line men, but that doesn't affect me quite as much. But you have less blitzes because you're kind of most of the time, if they're going to blitz, it's the five best guys rushing the passer. Like, that's just like, just common sense. Why would you have someone else rush when you have five guys who are professional rushers? When you have, you know, 4-2 nickel, especially dime, like George, a tight end coach in Baltimore. George was great about that. He's like, all right, let's think about this common sense. Who meets together on the defense?

1:21:48Well, the DBs meet together. Okay, if there's four of them meeting together and they're playing base defense, they only have so many coverages. Well, now they're playing dime and there's six of them and they can communicate together. Well, they can do anything. They could do invert Tampa, you know, fire two, fire three. Everyone's all in vogue is like the fire with the hot zones and trying to like just confuse the DB coverage. Also, I know sims are big right now, you know, just like exchanging. But the thing is just much more flexibility when, you know, in base, everything is kind of more close to the line of scrimmage.

1:22:18There's less stuff you can do. Well, in nickel and dime, there's guys everywhere. So you can blitz this guy and that. So I think that it all comes down to defensive philosophy of are we trying to be, you know, this is who we are, beat it? Or are we trying to be a little more show you this, do this? And there's pros and cons of both. And I just think of so much of that as personnel driven of both the defensive coordinator and the players they have. You know, if your defense, like if you have – I mean, you look at the Eagles in like 20, what was the other one Super Bowl, 24, 25 season?

1:22:51Robert Mays: Yeah, 24 season, yeah. Like the D-line was unreal. Like, you know, they have Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, Sweat, Graham, Nolan Smith. Like, I mean, the defense was unreal. Why would you mess with the D-line? Run forward and sack the quarterback. Like, that's like, why would you have them do stunts and stuff when you can just, they're just so good? And I think that's also like how you build your defense. Like, if your defense is elite cover guys, why would you have 18 different coverages? Play man or rush the passer. And so I think you see that. And that's how, like, teams build defenses is not just personnel driven, but also, sorry, not just scheme driven, but personnel driven.

1:23:31You saw that with Cleveland, too. Like, I got Denzel Ward, other guys, like, go play man or rush. So I think that's, like, it's all just, like, a little bit of this, a little bit of that. It's just, like, there's so many variables. That's why I think football is so interesting. Like someone described it to me as a human chess game once, and it's kind of interesting to look at it. Because it really is. Like there's so many different personnel and people and coordinator tendencies and everything that go together. And all those things are kind of shifting to tight ends. I think it's sick because I play tight ends.

1:24:03Robert Mays: I'm very excited to see what we get out of this. Like, I mean, I think we had three teams play at least 10%, 13 personnel last year. I think we had five teams that did at least 8 % of the time. I bet that doubles. Like, I bet we have at least 10 teams do it at least 10 % of the time this year. And it'll just be really interesting what works out of it and what doesn't, and then what the defensive response ends up being. I think those are kind of the two big lingering questions associated with this. Anything else in this general kind of realm that we did not hit on that you find interesting? Anything you think I should know about what the tight end revolution has looked like from your vantage point?

1:24:41Well, I think special teams matters a lot, too. I think coordinators are comfortable with tight ends, a lot of special teams. I take a ton of pride in special teams. Like, I think that's, like, just do you want to play football, like the most simple question. Like, I think tight ends, like, you look at guys like, you know, Charlie Warner with the Niners had, like, led the team in tackles. Like, there's, like, if you have tight ends that are going to play special teams, that is such an advantage because then you have big bodies. And sometimes if they're not, like, it can be a detriment because they're not.

1:25:10But, like, you look at the best special teams units have not just defensive players making tackles, but offensive. And I think, like, tight ends, like, in this league, like, it's going to be on us to, like, hey, if we want to consent you to play 12 and 13 personnel, you have to be able to play special teams. Because you can't have seven tight ends and one of them is playing special teams or whatever. You know what I mean? But I think when the rosters come out, you'll see a lot what the teams want to do. You know, if teams keep it three tight ends, you can see where their head's at. if they're keeping four or five in a fullback, you know, you can see where their head's at for the season.

1:25:44I think you'll kind of see that evolve throughout training. And also it can change too. Like it sounds sweet and you average two yards of play the first three games. I'll tell you what, they might play a lot in personnel. So it'll be interesting to see football. I mean, football is always changing. It's one of my favorite things. You know, you're never secure in your job and you're never done getting better. So I think it's one of the coolest parts about football. I'm kind of messed up like that. I always kind of psycho just never can be happy with not getting better. So it does help me. But I think that's the thing about the NFL is you have a bunch of guys who just want to get better and just are kind of crazy about it.

1:26:16Robert Mays: And I think that's one of the coolest parts about the league. It's the best part is that it's always changing. It's impossible to figure out. And very cool to get perspective from somebody who is at the center of one of those pivot points right now. Charlie, sincerely appreciate the time, man. Thank you very much for joining us. We'll have to do this again sometime. Yes, nice to meet you guys. Have a good day. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you so much to Charlie for his time. Thank you to Derek. really enjoyed this conversation. We will be back on Monday with our next mailbag. For now, that's all we got.

1:26:45Robert Mays: Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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