Is This Real?

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1:14Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Every year, two weeks into the season, we like to have a show in the middle of the week where we play, is this real? We have two games worth of evidence for these teams. That's still probably not enough to know definitively how the NFL season is going to play out. But we like to do this. Two weeks into the year, some of the things that have surprised us, both good and bad in the NFL, is this stuff real? We always like to do this with Bill Barnwell, my buddy from ESPN. That is who joined us today.

1:47Robert Mays: We dug into the Panthers' offense, which you haven't really talked about, the Packers, the Bills, the Chargers. A lot of fun conversations here. Let's get to all of it with Bill Barnwell right now.

2:08Robert Mays: Playing a little game today that I always like to play two weeks into the season. But, Barnwell, I think we did this last year. Do we do this two years ago? Is this the third straight year we've done this or is this last year? We've been doing Is This Real since we were children. That's what I'm saying. But I was trying to think about how many years in a row we've done it. I think it's a lot of years in a row, isn't it? Two weeks into the season? It feels like a tradition at this point. We are always in one form or another doing is this real, whether it's as strictly as a podcast topic or whether it's just kind of testing little things in season.

2:40I feel like that is a constant back and forth between us.

2:44Robert Mays: It's a fun game to play two weeks in because the question is super relevant for pretty much every single team in the league. I will say, and I preface this, I think on Sunday night when we were talking about the fact that we were going to do this this week, a lot of times you have a team that did the same thing two weeks in a row. And we ask, is this real two weeks into the season? There was such a swift change for so many teams from week one to week two that I think the pool of potential candidates for is this real this year might be a little smaller than normal. But we still have enough stuff to dive into today.

3:17uh we could do a different show which is i don't want it to be real and we could do a lot of stuff

3:21Robert Mays: after we saw in week two yeah uh you and i both uh riding high after week one with watching our teams and the young quarterbacks and then we're in a very different place now at least mine gets to come back uh yeah all we're really enduring is one week of case keenum and a bunch of memes you're enduring a season without your team starting quarterback yeah there was a lot the the reaping sewing tweet that that was me uh on on monday night um good thing i didn't pick the giants to make the playoffs that would have been a stupid thing did you really do that i did oh wow well why would you ever do that where is the potential upside in doing that well um i'm i'm i'm foolish is what it boils down to we do have some candidates for is this real and that it's The exercise is as simple as the format.

4:09Robert Mays: I mean, we're going to ask, is this real for something that we've seen? It sounds like you being Bob Barker explaining a game on The Price is Right. It's a very simple game. We're going to take a topic from the first two weeks of the NFL season. We're going to ask, is this real? And we're going to try to figure it out. Let's start with one of the motivations for wanting to do this show this week, on top of it being an annual tradition. But the first one that came to mind, a conversation we haven't really had on this feed, They played the Falcons on Sunday night. We talked mostly about the Bears offense coming out of week one, but something I was very excited to dive into today.

4:43Robert Mays: Bryce Young, the Carolina Panthers, two weeks into the season, fifth in EPA per dropback. The four teams ahead of them, Niners, Bills, Cowboys, all predictable coming into the year. All thought those would be good offenses. Number four, the Seattle Seahawks and Drew Locke. So that one probably isn't worth the conversation because Sam Donald is going to be back, but the Panthers are firmly fifth in those rankings right now. Now, Bryce Young has been the most productive he's been over a two-game stretch probably over the course of his entire career. Been extremely fun to watch. So let's do it. Bryce Young's emergence, Bryce Young's ascendance, Bryce Young's start to this season.

5:21Robert Mays: Is this real? I have absolutely no idea. This is the one I am least confident about. This is the one where I kept looking at it and saying to myself, um i'm i'm i'm really unsure and i think so let's talk through that well what what what are your competing thoughts on both sides that are kind of pulling you in different directions here well normally after 1500 pass attempts in the nfl guys are usually pretty settled they don't make dramatic leaps although it happens and and the guy i was thinking about and there are different kinds of quarterbacks but it's that same kind of question of could this guy take this kind of leap at this point of his career after we believe him to be something is andy dalton that year with the bangles i think it was 20 oh interesting 15 yeah it's 2015 yeah 2015 and that was a scenario where if you look back that bangles team had a really great infrastructure on offense great offensive line a bunch of talented receivers they were healthy for most of the year good running game And I'm sort of wondering, like, when I think about Bryce Young, the quarterback, I don't think he suddenly developed skills he didn't have previously.

6:36But were we either really not appreciating how bad some of the infrastructure was, or has it improved dramatically? And I think you could make a little bit of a case for both, especially now that we have a healthy Jalen Coker kind of being the second or really the primary receiver in some ways in that offense.

6:56Robert Mays: I think the circumstances have improved, certainly from where it was early in his career. I think when you look at year one under Frank Reich and just how much of a disaster that offensive line was, I think we do have some lingering effects of people watching him that season and being unable to forget how bad he was. But even when you move beyond that, it's been inconsistent at best. And if you look at the career-long stats, bad at worst. They are bad career-long statistics for the most part for Bryce Young. And I tried to do my best in going back and rewatching. I watched all 80 of his past attempts from the first two games to prepare for this.

7:29Robert Mays: I was like, I want to know how much I actually feel about this. And I tried to do my best to just divorce myself from what we had seen from Bryce Young and what I had thought of Bryce Young previously. And you said something interesting that I sort of disagree with, and it's at the root of my relative optimism about this. I do think that he is displaying some skills that we have not seen from him previously. And it's in this one specific area. Bryce, and this cuts both ways. This is both why it could be real and why it can't be real. Bryce Young's path to success is extremely narrow because of what his physical profile and physical skill set looks like.

8:14Robert Mays: We've always known that. It was always going to be hard for him to thread the needle, to be a productive quarterback in the NFL, given his limitations. But in order to do it, I think he was going to have to figure out how he needed to play and survive in the NFL. He was going to have to get a sense of that. And if you watch the first couple games, I think there are two areas where he has started to, or maybe fully, figured out how he can survive in the league. One is where and how he has to find space for himself. And if you watch a lot of the stuff he was doing, especially in the Bears game, off schedule, extending plays, getting out of the pocket, figuring out where those lanes are, where those escape hatches are, the timing he needs to play with to get there, how fast he needs to find them.

9:01Robert Mays: I was very impressed by his ability to do that. Those are the overt examples. There are other smaller examples where either the Panthers or Bryce are finding a little bit of space for him in the pocket, play action, moving the pocket. The 55-yarder he hits to Leggett in the Falcons game, You see him slide in the pocket to his left just a little bit to give him enough space to really uncork that throw. In order for him to survive, he needs a master, like a master's level understanding of how and where to find and access that space. And I think that has been the best it's ever been through two games.

9:36Robert Mays: And the other area is how fast he's seeing things, period. How fast the ball is coming out. Because beyond the frame, his arm just isn't great. He can really push the ball downfield. field he's actually a decent downfield passer right but he doesn't drive the ball right to the intermediate areas of the field you know 40 year old aaron rogers can still loft a ball but that like you know that that drive that we saw with caleb williams throwing those end breakers in week one that that is not in aaron rogers talker i don't think it's in bryce young's locker again his ability to push the ball down the field which we'll get to i think is he can do that but the driving the ball outside the numbers there was one throw against the falcons where he hit like a deep outbreaker from the opposite hash that was pretty good.

10:17Robert Mays: But how quickly he has to make those decisions in order to make those throws viable, he has to do it instantaneously. And I do think that's happening more and more on the same drive where he hits the 55 yard to get the touchdown. He throws a Darren Waller on that drive is a sweet play. And he sees that thing come open two steps before Waller's out of his break. The ball comes out. It's a touchdown. And so I think when you take those two things together, his ability to understand how he needs to find space and how fast he's processing and how fast the ball needs to come out based on who he is, I'm getting to a place where I'm like, OK, is that enough?

10:56Robert Mays: Like those two things connected and those two things together, is that enough for him to be a viable long term answer at quarterback? And I don't know if I'm all the way there yet, but I do think that it is a starting point for something that's potentially exciting. And yeah, I don't disagree with anything you're saying, and I see the logic in what you're saying. But I do think it gets back to my sort of initial question of like, is this a new skill? Or are we, you know, could it be a situation where the game is slowed down a little bit for Bryce Young, that kind of classic cliche? And so maybe he does feel like he has a better sense of what the timing is and how narrow those windows are and when to throw accurately and when to get the ball out quickly.

11:34I also wonder, and this is not to be disrespectful of my co-host, but is the fact that he played the Bears and the Falcons without their top two pass rushers and with AJ Terrell leaving the game, does that increase the margin for error? And I think that's kind of the phrase I always come back to with Bryce Young is just the margin for error is so small. And that kind of speaks to your point about like, he has to hit those windows because yes, he can create out of structure. Yes, he can improvise. But it is so much harder to do that when you are not a freak athlete, when you are not a threat to, you know, run away from people all that often, when you're more agile than fast.

12:13And so I do think there is that possibility that the game is slowed down. But I also think, you know, you're going to have a lot of margin for error playing those two defenses in the current situations they're facing, especially, you know, in the Falcons game playing from ahead for most of the contest.

12:29Robert Mays: I agree. And I think it's his ability to find space and his ability to maneuver around the pocket. When that pocket is condensing, it's going to be really hard for him in a way it's not for bigger quarterbacks. And I'm not trying to make this a, this is what an NFL quarterback is, this is what an NFL quarterback is not, but making this comparison. But I literally just went back and rewatched the Chargers game. And when you're watching Justin Herbert, even when under pressure, guys can be hanging on him and the ball can still come off. That's what you're talking about with margin for error. That doesn't exist with Bryce.

13:00Robert Mays: Like when the pocket condenses, I think life is going to be really hard for him. He needs clear space, clear escape routes, or the ball needs to come out immediately. And so that's kind of what I mean when I said the path is really narrow. And so I don't know where I land either. When I'm saying, is this real? I think this is where I stick with it. I don't think they're a top five passing offense. Like, I don't think that's real. But I think I'm in a place where this is the start of me believing in him as their multi-year answer. Like, if he can continue to play at this level or even a step or two back from this, I want to see what he can continue to do and what he could continue to do next year.

13:41Robert Mays: And I think that to me is probably a win for both the Panthers and Bryce Young is them thinking this is a real viable option for us at quarterback. The offense has been great. The rest of the team is the areas where they've struggled over the first couple of weeks. I mean, obviously the defense against the Bears. And so I think that's where I land with it, where I don't know if they're top 10 offense real, but he has shown me enough where I am looking forward to seeing what he can do over the rest of the season. And I that wasn't a guarantee coming into the year that I would be like, oh, man, I can't wait to see what Bryce Young does with his 2026.

14:15Robert Mays: But that's where I am right now. Yeah, I agree on that. I think what's real, what we could say for sure is he has a path to access maybe a level of upside. We did not necessarily think was plausible. That's exactly it. I know nothing about golf. So please excuse me if this metaphor is terrible. but like this is like the you know the golfer who has like a five handicap who shoots five under par one day and like they've never shot par before and suddenly they're five under par and you're like i could do that like like i i have that in me like if everything is perfect i have that kind of performance in me maybe i can't shoot 67 every day but maybe i can if i keep performing and i keep improving maybe i can get closer to that maybe i am really a park off maybe i am really a one under handicap.

15:01Like, I feel like that's the sort of opening that you have with Bryce Young now that maybe wasn't there before. We saw big games, but even two big games in a row and two games in a row where he looked as impressive as he's looked. Pretty rare, if not unprecedented for Bryce Young.

15:15Robert Mays: There are two other big picture things I think are worth mentioning before we move on in terms of why it might feel and look different this year than it has in years past. The play caller is different, right? I mean, Brad Idzik is calling plays for them this year, And I will say we have not talked about how weird it is that Brad Idzik is the play caller for the Carolina Panthers. Just in terms of because of who his dad is? Yes. Yeah. It's like it's like cat guy GM, offensive coordinator. Just a weird combo. I mean, he he is a young he's an exciting young coach in the league. And he's been with Canales at multiple different stops.

15:53Robert Mays: And I think the there and credit to Joe Person, who does a fantastic job covering the Panthers for us at the Athletic. when we were talking during training camp, he said there are people in Bryce's camp that not that there was anything nefarious going on, but that believed Canales was putting limiters on him in how they were running the offense. And that bears out in the numbers. If you look at it last year, 9.4 % of the Panthers' pass attempts went 20-plus yards downfield last season. That was 31st in the NFL. This year, through two games, it's 19.4%, which is the second highest rate in the NFL.

16:31Robert Mays: And so they really have opened up the offense for him and his ability to push the ball downfield. They've really gotten a lot of positive returns on that. And I think you see him playing with a certain confidence, quickness, how fast he's seeing things. I think that was the other argument for Brad taking over play calling is that you have somebody now that is your primary play caller, the voice in your ear, that is with you every step of the way throughout these meetings over the course of the week. It is truly like a day-to-day partnership where I think you can really instill a level of confidence in each other that maybe you can't when your canal is parachuting in at the end of the process because you're having to do all this other stuff as the head coach.

17:08Robert Mays: And so based on what we've seen from the first couple of games and just how locked in that pair seems to be and what they need from one another, I do think that it has made an appreciable difference in what we have seen from Bryce Young two games into this season. yeah i would also to your point like the idea of let's hunt explosives let's use the entire field makes a lot of sense when you have a quarterback who you know isn't necessarily built to access the intermediate range all that well over the middle of the field like so many offenses absolutely want to attack and exploit that area and bryshun can do that here and there but that's not ideally what you want your five foot ten quarterback doing it's a perfect example there's a play in the second half i think i believe in the second half of the falcons game where they're and they did this very well consistently with T-Mac, where he's running kind of these big circus routes back into the whole area in cover two.

17:58Robert Mays: And they run one in the second half. Bryce does a fantastic job of peeking at the route in the flat, holding down the flat defender just enough, getting his shoulders back turned, and then hitting that whole shot to T-Mac. And those are the areas of the field where he can consistently attack because of the receivers he has, because of the way that he plays the game. But it comes back to your point. It's still somewhat narrow. in what he is able to do at a high level. And is that enough? The ability to find space, the ability to attack outside the numbers and his ability to play fast. Is that enough altogether to make him viable in the long term?

18:35Robert Mays: Coming into the season, I would have had my doubts, but after seeing it in practice over the first two weeks, I kind of think it might be. Like, I'm excited to see what he can do because I really enjoyed watching what he was over the first two weeks of the year. All right, let's get to our next one here. The Cincinnati Bengals defense, after being just an absolute abomination last season, has looked considerably better through two weeks. Two games into the year, the Bengals are seventh in defensive DVOA. They're fourth in run defense DVOA. So, after two games, the Cincinnati Bengals defense, is this real?

19:16I need more to believe. I've been, it's been so bad for so long. that I need more than two weeks. And when I look at what they've done on a weekly basis, I can make excuses. And that's unfair because the Bengals deserve a lot of credit for the things I'm about to make excuses for, but I can still make excuses. So week one, of course, the Bucs fumble four times. Tampa lost those four fumbles to Cincinnati. Cincinnati forced the four fumbles. They deserve some credit for that. But, I mean, the Bucs were about to score a touchdown on one of those drives. They scored a defensive touchdown off a fumble.

19:49um it just i want to give them some credit for forcing the takeaway but you know what i'm going to say like you're going to recover half the fumbles in your game so i i just it's weird to say like i want to see them force more punts in that scenario like it's like i'm punishing them but there's a little bit of like 25 bears defense here right like where you're like okay we know you can't do that every week and the bears kind of did do it every week but that's a concern there And then week two, they were awesome against the run. They honestly freaked D 'Amico Ryans out. He made one of the worst fourth down decisions you will ever see in the modern NFL.

20:26I still can't believe it happened. I still can't believe it. It's so funny because I was writing about it this week and I was on the Texans website and after week one, Nick Casario was like, yeah, we're running the ball more effectively. I think D 'Amico is really going to be confident in our ability to go forward on fourth and short. hindsight's 2020 but i was it took one experience with dexter lawrence for that all to go down the toilet nope nope um so i and like i i deserve credit like dexter lawrence is a really good run defender they have made major additions up front they should be better against the run but i've also seen the texans be awful running the football for several years and that is not a one-time thing so i'm sort of like piecing together each week i'm like well like this is kind of what drove them, and I don't know if they can do that.

21:12That's unfair, though, because they deserve credit for stopping the run. They deserve credit for forcing the fumbles. The thing that I want to ask you about, the thing that I feel like I have the most skepticism about, is they are blitzing at the lowest rate of football, which I'm not surprised by, and they have the fifth highest pressure rate of any team in the NFL. Do you think they can keep that up?

21:33Robert Mays: I think that sort of gap would be hard to do over the course of the season. I think the front is real. That's what I will say. I think the front is real. And it obviously starts with what Dexter Lawrence can do. We've seen that. I mean, what he did on Sunday, it's the most you can impact a game without a sack. I don't know if he had one, but just what he did against the run in that game is the most you can possibly impact the game as a nose tackle. He was incredible. But it's not just him. Like, every single one of these guys has gotten in the mix in some way. Cassius Howell playing the role that they're asking him to play, he's perfectly suited for it.

22:08Robert Mays: He's been really productive. Jonathan Allen has been a great inside complimentary pass rusher. Really surprised how well he's played so far. Really, really good complimentary interior pass rusher. And again, it's exactly what they need him to do. Mafei, like the entire combination of skill sets has looked great. And I think the returns on that, I believe that to be real. Do I think that they'll be able to be a top five pressure team while blitzing at the lowest rate in the league? Maybe not. I will say, I think a lot of their simulated stuff is good. And I think a lot of their pressure plan stuff has been good.

22:39Robert Mays: Even some of the zero stuff that they're doing, they're like a top eight-ish cover zero team so far this year. And a lot of the things they're doing, dropping out of that, playing zone behind it, forcing people to make really quick decisions. I think the rush and coverage in those moments has looked good. So I actually do believe the pass rush and the run defense from simply the front is something you'll be able to count on for the rest of the year. it's some of the other stuff where I need to see a little bit more as we keep going here. Like what? Middle of the field, spine defense. Like the spine of the defense, pass defense.

23:13You don't think Dalton Schultz is like Trey McBride 2.0?

23:18Robert Mays: You just watch it happen, and it's not surprising. I think the linebackers will be better than they were a year ago. It'd be hard for them to be worse. But I still think as I watch this team, the three players that come to mind, really four, I think it's just the entire second and third level spine of the defense. Yeah. It'd be like Jordan battles made some nice plays near the line of scrimmage. But when you look at some of the plays where they're asking him to trigger downhill, there's been a lot of space and a lot of air in that area specifically over their first couple of games. You saw it against the bucks and the numbers could be even worse.

23:50Robert Mays: I mean, Kate out and dropped the scene ball. They probably should have caught that to me seems like the area where you'll be able to get after this team. The, the corners on the outside and the front I feel really good about I think that Dax Hill is playing well DJ Turner is taking the leap we all kind of hoped he would take he looks really really good even though it helps when it's Xavier Hutchinson and not Nico Collins but I do believe in that stuff I just think the spine of the defense middle of the field pass defense that's where I still need to see a little bit more they're 18th and pass defense success rate through two games like it's that's not bad but I think the run defense and what we saw from them against the Texans maybe is masking the true quality of what they've been like down to down for the first two weeks in that specific area.

24:33What I do believe, and this is not really something I've had to see so far this year, but over the course of the season, is that they're not going to allow as many explosives as they did last year because they were the worst tackling team in football. And it really was not close. And a lot of the people who were responsible for that, Geno Stone, are no longer part of the organization. And so that is one of those things where it was such an outlier last year. I think they had like 30 more missed tackles than anybody else in the league or something crazy. Such an outlier that you're going to make the moves to fix it.

25:03There's going to be year-to-year variance, and you're not going to allow as many explosives as a result. It wasn't like they got beat over the top here and there, but it wasn't like those plays where, oh, we're just getting people running by us and zone coverage. It was, oh, you're hitting a 14-yard dig and it's turning into a 40-yard gain because we take terrible angles or we run into each other or we just ankle tackle or we try to hit stick you and fail. And Brian Cook has been a really solid tackler with the Chiefs. I think the front makes them better because quarterbacks are going to have less time to throw.

25:36You're going to have to force the ball into tighter windows. You're not going to have those huge sort of swaths to throw into. I think there's a holistic thing happening, some of which is just your regression to the mean from what happened a year ago, and some of which is just that front making everyone's life a lot easier.

25:51Robert Mays: Yeah, I also just think that, and I don't have the numbers on it, I'd be curious what they actually look like. Last year, they just had to play so many heavy boxes because of their inability to stop the run that that also can lead to more explosives because you just have more guys crowded toward the line of scrimmage. Like, it's counterintuitive that you would give up fewer explosive runs if you're playing with too high, but that's actually true. Like, you probably will be doing some of that. So I just looked it up. This shouldn't be surprising at all. Who do you think is playing with the highest light box rate in the NFL two weeks into the season?

26:23I would guess the Philadelphia Eagles.

26:25Robert Mays: They are second. It is the Cincinnati Bengals, 65.8 % of plays according to NextGen. So playing with this many light boxes and playing with more too high structures, all that kind of stuff, I think that also is going to limit the amount of explosive runs that you're going to see. I agree. And that's crazy. And that's crazy. It goes a long way in making that happen. You are afforded a lot more flexibility when you have a great nose tackle to do that stuff, as the Eagles can attest to with Jordan Davis and with Jalen Carter playing next to him. I think the question is, what is real? Is real, are the Bengals a top eight defense?

27:03No, probably not. Are they sort of like the, oh, if they can just be average defense? Yeah, I think that's totally within the realm of possibility from what we've seen through two weeks.

27:10Robert Mays: Yeah, if they finished as like the 12th best defense in the league by DVOA because of how good the front is, that wouldn't necessarily surprise me. I still have my questions about what it's going to look like over the course of the entire season because I do think they have relative weaknesses. And I did a video about this earlier this week and Derek and I talked about it on the hangover. I do think you're going to see the teams that have issues in coverage in the spine of the defense this year because of how many teams are playing under center and how much under center play action that we're seeing.

27:38Robert Mays: The conflict that you're putting on those second-level defenders just because of the way people are playing right now through two games and what I assume people continue to do for the rest of the year, I do think we'll feel that. And I unfortunately think the Bengals will be one of those teams. I don't think the linebackers are going to be a disaster, but I do think that is the relative weakness of the defense so far. And I think we'll see more of it in games where teams aren't finishing with a 10 % rushing success rate. Yeah, and I think with teams leaning into bigger personnel groupings, more 21, more 12, especially more 13, that's begging opposing defenses to match with base.

28:16And so I think teams are just going to have more linebackers on the field than they would have two or three years ago just because you're going to want to try to stop those bigger personnel groupings.

28:25Robert Mays: All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about a unit that's been struggling two weeks into the year. football season has arrived and with the u.s bank smartly visa signature card you earn an unlimited two percent cash back on every purchase including at the stadium or at home watching on a brand new tv score big with unlimited two percent cash back on every purchase visit usbank.com smartly card to learn more the creditor and issuer of this card is u.s bank national association pursuant to a license from visa usa inc some restrictions may apply all right as i sit here right now in the upper Midwest.

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31:00Robert Mays: We're two games in, and the Green Bay Packers are currently 30th in offensive success rate. The teams behind them are the Pittsburgh Steelers, which there's something beautiful about that, and the Miami Dolphins. So a lot of carry over there. We got Jeff Halfley in Miami. We got Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh. The Packers are sitting at 30th. The Packers offense being a decidedly below average, hard to watch unit. Is this real after two games? Have you seen what their offensive line looks like? I have. Yeah, that makes me think yes. If not 30th, below average seems entirely plausible to me. it is there's like a fundamentally broken thing about all the things that matt look for wants to do and the pieces he actually has to work with so just to start they are not a team that can lean heavily into multi-time personnel groupings because luke musgraves out indefinitely they signed johnny smith right before the year and he's been you know on the field but like the confidence and comfort they have in running 12 which they would normally be happy to do they cannot do I honestly think with more time on task, I believe that the combination of Kraft and Mark Redman might be OK, because I think Redman is a capable blocker.

32:19Robert Mays: The idea of like Johnnie Smith being a part of this, I don't that I don't really care about. But like Redman and Kraft, I do think that that combination of guys is something that they could work with moving forward. This is a real NBA Jam thing where it's like you have one superstar and you're just going to play as that guy in NBA Jam and you're going to let the computer play as the other guy who's nowhere near as good. Tucker Craft and anybody is probably an okay combination because Tucker Craft is incredible. But I see your point. Jaden Reed gets hurt. So now your 11 personnel grouping is down, you know, a sort of difficult to replace receiver.

32:52So you've got Williams is on IR.

32:53Robert Mays: And then that's where the thinness at receiver that they didn't have in previous years immediately shows up. Where last year you could lose a receiver for an extended period of time and say, well, we got six of them. They're all kind of the same, but we've got a lot of them. This year, they didn't. There's no receivers in the banana stand for the Packers right now. They are not there anymore. They weren't all the same, but there was a replacement for each of them. Yes, yes. That would have worked out. I mean, they're all of similar quality. Like, we just throw one more out there and we'll probably be fine.

33:24Robert Mays: That is not the case with this current group. No, that is not the case. Bo Melton has seen snaps on offense already, which is concerning to me. And then the offensive line. And before the year, this was a concern. just looking at their backups on the offensive line, not even considering that Jordan Morgan was moving to left tackle on a permanent basis. I think he had one career start at left tackle before the start of the season, and he had not looked great, frankly, playing elsewhere on the line before this year. They were starting Jacob Monk at right guard. Zach Bacowayle was coming off of an injury, and sadly now has another injury.

33:56He's torn his patella. He's done for the year. Aaron Banks was banged up in year one with the Packers. He missed week one and left the game in week two. I mean, you're looking at And this is like the Packers thing, young players, I get it. But like, you're not looking at first and second round picks in a lot of cases taking over these spots. You're looking at day three picks. You're looking at UFAs. You're looking at practice squad guys who are already taking meaningful snaps and projected to take meaningful snaps moving forward for the Packers. And you have no Josh Jacobs. And for whatever qualms I have about Josh Jacobs in terms of his EPA because of his fumbling issues, Josh Jacobs is a very effective interior runner.

34:32You have Marshawn Lloyd and Caleb Johnson taking those snaps. You have Chris Brooks, who's a pass pro guy, taking snaps and running back. And you're still running the ball at one of the highest rates on neutral downs in early game scripts, even though you are last in the NFL, I believe in success rate, if not EPA per play, running the football on design runs. This is broken, and I don't really know how you fix it because the personnel is not there to really find a way to make it all work.

35:01Robert Mays: I'm not quite as down on it as you are. I think it's for this reason. I think that last week against the Jets, I feel similarly about the Packers game against the Jets as I do about the Bears game against the Vikings last week. Obviously, the quality of defense is different, but it's a messy game in a rainstorm, and there are just so many correctable mistakes when you watch it happen from offenses that have so much built up equity that have looked better than this. And that's kind of how I felt about the Packers game last week. Like the amount of missed assignments in the run game and Christian Watson and just like guys not being blocked.

35:39Robert Mays: That's not a talent issue. Like, I think that's a continuity issue. That's a backup offensive lineman issue. That type of stuff in a weather game when you have this many injuries, a lot of that to me feels correctable. And I do think the combination of LaFleur, Jordan Love, You still have Watson and Golden. I think if they can just get some level of continuity with whoever the five guys are going to be, I think it'll look significantly less sloppy than it did against the Jets last week, even if there are a lot of personnel concerns. So my question, I think my hesitation here is not about the floor.

36:16Robert Mays: I think the floor is much, much higher than what we've seen from them, what we saw from them last week and what we've seen them the first two weeks. I think my bigger concern with what you're talking about with all the offensive linemen out, all the injuries, is that the ceiling for this offense probably just isn't nearly as high as it's been over the last couple years. So now are we talking about a team that's like 17th, 18th in every offensive efficiency metric rather than what we've gotten used to with them? That feels like kind of where I sit with it. I have real concerns about their ability to run the football.

36:50Robert Mays: Yeah, that's fair. That's real. and and their their pass rate over expectation on first down and first and 10 is negative 17.8 they are leaning heavily into the run on early downs and that to me is the concern because like i understand why you want to protect jordan love i understand why that's why you want to run the football but you're not good at it that's that's the problem and if you're in second and 11 the argument of we want to take a play off the offensive line. We don't want to make them drop back 50 times. Well, now, you're the how much harder you're making the second down play by running it on first down negates the fact that you made the first down play easier.

37:32Yes. Even if it's second and nine, even if you didn't lose a yard, it's still bad. And so that's my concern is just this offense is built to play a very particular kind of way. And they've been very successful doing it over the last few years, which is why they have the equity that I understand you're affording them. I just I can deal with a drop pass. I can deal with a miscommunication on a route, but I'm looking at an offense where there's going to be backup linemen in there. There's going to be guys I don't trust there. That leads to misassignments, like you said. That does lead to breakdowns.

38:02It does lead to not having continuity when they're running concepts, and that is the stuff that concerns me because I don't know that this offense has the ability to stay on schedule very often. Now, they have the ability to create explosives because they have Jordan Love, and he's a big game hunter, and they'll hit their big shots because they have big game hunter receivers. But like, you're also counting on Christian Watson to be healthy for the entire season. Like that to me also seems scary. It's not like even like Aaron Banks might not be healthy over the rest of the year. If he is great, but like, there's just, we're already down so much.

38:36And I'm just not confident that even the pieces that are left, Jordan Love has missed time over the course of his pro career. I just, it feels like things are already falling apart. And I know that sometimes you can correct the ship and sometimes there are things, like you said, the rain that could impact things. But sometimes you keep sliding down because you can't stay healthy, because the line is backed up. And you get like a 2022 Rams season. Or is it 2022 or 2023? It was 22.

39:01Robert Mays: Yeah, it was 22. Like that feels like it's in the realm of possibility for this Packers offense. And I was not expecting that before the year. I think that's a really good comparison to point out as a worst case scenario. The idea that you could just be dealing with a 2022 Rams season. And to me, why I think that's really good is, well, Stafford got hurt for how many games did Stafford play in 22? Stafford played nine games, I believe. Nine games in 22. So that's part of it. So I don't think if Love plays 15 games, I don't think you're looking at that sort of outcome. I agree. But we have a play caller in McVay that has as much inherent faith as you could possibly have, and the bottom fell out.

39:38Robert Mays: And so that to me is why this is a good comparison. in. Here's this will be my parting thought before we move on to the next thing. I am worried. I'm not panicking yet in terms of how bad it could get. I want to see what it looks like not in the rain when they don't lose multiple offensive linemen in the middle of the game. Maybe they'll just lose multiple offensive linemen in the middle of the game every game for the rest of the season. But I hope I do think that. All right. We know these are the five guys that we're working with. And if you look at the way they were running the ball in that game, and Justice Muscata pointed this out, and I think that it's a really good observation, and it struck me when I was going back to rewatch it.

40:17Robert Mays: So a lot of those gap scheme runs look significantly better than the zone stuff that they were trying to do. And so can you lean into some of those gap scheme runs? Can you still be explosive in the passing game? Can you get to an acceptable level of play, even with some backups in there, if you have the same five guys for an extended period of time? That's wishful thinking. I think that they're going to be hard-pressed to make this all come together. That's why I am worried about it. I want to see one more week not in the rain, not in a burn-the-tape sort of situation, before I totally panic about where they are.

40:51I would also point out that Matt LaFleur built a coherent offense, a successful offense with Malik Willis as a quarterback, which is something I would not have expected. So this man might deserve some benefit of the doubt as well.

41:03Robert Mays: It's hard for me to throw dirt on them this early. Again, I mean, like, I feel like you can have really bad games as a good offensive play car with a good offense. Like Ben Johnson and the Bears were not good last week. I don't think that means they'll continue to not be good. I think that sometimes you just have shitty weeks. And last week was a really shitty week. When you combine it with the injuries, though, that's where it starts to get concerning. And I'm willing to concede that. But I'm just I'm not all the way there yet. I'm not arguing Matt LaFleur is a bad coach or they have a bad. Why do you hate Matt LaFleur?

41:33Because he wears the same vest. every game, and I feel like he's a tech bro secretly masquerading as an NFL coach.

41:42Robert Mays: He's just jealous of the eyebrows, which we all are. It's totally fun. Sure. Speaking of tech bros masquerading as NFL coaches, let's talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are 29th in EPA per play so far this season. They are 0-2. It feels like their season is kind of on life support. I assume you've looked at this, but for people that don't know, have you looked at the Chargers schedule? over the next six weeks? No. Who are they playing? Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans. Those are the next six games for the Chargers. Yeah, I don't think... I think you left out the seventh game.

42:25I think the seventh game is against the Ravens, no?

42:30Robert Mays: Let me see. I somehow got lost on the schedule page. Yes! Yes, they play the Ravens after that. The Ravens game wasn't up. I had to expand the menu to see the Ravens game. You left the Ravens game out of the schedule. That part is tough, but we can talk about that. But the Chargers look like a mess. Again, they're 29th in EPA per play on offense. The Chargers being just an absolute shit show, especially on offense, is this real? I was going to ask you. Yes, the answer is yes. I was going to ask you, is it more concerning through two weeks that the offense is bad or that the defense is 26th in total QBR having played the Cardinals and the Raiders?

43:13Which is worse?

43:14Robert Mays: I think the offense is worse. Which is more concerning to you. I think the offense is more concerning. Because that's the big bet you made. The big bet you made is that Mike McDaniel plus Justin Herbert equals fireworks, and that is not what has happened so far. Yeah, of course that was the bet. And like the logic still holds, but have you watched this Chargers offense closely? Have you looked at their run game over the first two weeks? I went back and rewatched today. It looks like first day of camp stuff and not first day of pro camp stuff. It looks like first day of high school stuff. Like guys are, there's like Mack Wilson's running scot-free into the backfield to make tackle attempts.

43:51You're having guys get slipped so easily in the interior of the line. Like it is, it's not always, it's not just one thing. It's just like a series of like, you guys don't have a remotely competent run game. And that's like the bare minimum of like, okay, you know, maybe the drop back passing game for McDaniel isn't, you know, totally moderately. But like, I at least trust that their run game is going to be consistent. It looks completely broken.

44:18Robert Mays: That's the problem. is that, and we probably should have been, and I'm guilty of this because I think that in a lot of ways, the conversations about, I'm going to do this, okay? The conversations about the Chargers coming into the year are similar to the conversations that we've had about Justin Herbert for a long time. And I don't think this discussion has to be a referendum on Justin Herbert, but we should talk about how he's been playing, okay? They're aesthetic conversations. and I think the like there are some of the appeal to the Mike McDaniel offense is as is an aesthetic appeal and when you look at the overall like EPA per point numbers and everything else when two was out there they were always very good but for the run game specifically there are cracks if you wanted to find them and you go back and you look at the numbers for the last couple years with the Dolphins the Dolphins run game last season we and how much do we hear about the Dolphins run game this offseason the Vikings were going to run it the Bears were going to steal some of it the chargers were going to run it so many people were chasing the dolphins run game they were 31st in stuff rate last year the dolphins run game was 31st the chargers through two games are 31st in the percentage of their runs that are getting hit in the backfield per next gen the dolphins run game was boom bust they were getting hit in the backfield a lot they were getting stuffed a lot but they were extremely explosive we have the same run game here with no boom it's all bust And so that's the problem.

45:45Robert Mays: If you're not going to be explosive, you can't live with this high variant stuff that comes from all of the different moving pieces that they're trotting out in the run game. The number that jumped out to me that is just wild from condensed formations through two games, the the Chargers have lost 24 EPA on runs, 24 in two games. that's three touchdowns they've only played two games how is that even possible that's like a full win that's like the chargers have lost a full game just by being so bad on condensed design runs oh my god they have run the fifth most of them in the league and only the browns have been worse on epa in a period of play on condensed formation runs and so it just speaks to how fundamentally broken so many things about the offense are like if you're going to be that inconsistent without being explosive on the ground if you're going to have so many negative plays and then you combine that with all the mistakes in the passing game I mean putting the ball on the ground fumbles hitting guys going in motion guys deflecting passes that should be caught by teammates that this to me is like a perfect encapsulation of like what it is like to watch the Chargers offense right now.

47:02Robert Mays: One drive ends with the Njoku pick where it hits him in the hands and he throws it to a defensive player. The next drive, it's a third and long. Herbert throws a missile to McConkie on third and long. He runs an incredible route. Ball is on time. It's beautiful. They follow that up. The next play, no one blocks Quay Walker on the edge. Just no one blocks him and it's a negative run. Right after that, they bring the nickel. Herbert gets hit he still is somehow able to get the ball to Hampton on a check down for a chunk so those are three plays in a row you have the missile shot you have a misplay and then you have Herbert throwing a check down with somebody hanging on him for a positive play I'm not absolving it he is not playing well he's making plenty of mistakes he's getting sped up a little bit but there are just so many other things happening with this offense where like you said it's a little bit of everything.

47:57Robert Mays: And that's why it's hard to figure out exactly how you fix this. I do think if the schedule was not what it is, if this next seven games didn't look the way that it does, part of me would be willing to say, new play caller, intricate offense, a little bit more time. Do they come out on the other side of this? And I think in terms of like logic and reason, I still do believe that to an extent, but when you're playing these next seven games, you couldn't lose to the Cardinals and Raiders. I thought when you said new play caller, you were arguing that they should fire Mike McDaniel and replace him with someone else to call plays.

48:35And I didn't think that was a terrible idea.

48:38Robert Mays: Oh, come on. Come on. It's two games. It's two games. We've seen this. We see this all the time. We see this all the time. Yes, we see this all the time where the Bears and Jags were a nightmare last year at the start of the season. The Jags specifically. Think about how many mistakes. I remember Trevor yelling at me. I'm calling. Think about how many mistakes the Jags are making. This shit happens all the time. I think it's just a combination of the collective hype that everyone bought into this summer about what this pairing would look like. The fact that the defense has been bad and it's led to them losing games on top of it.

49:12Robert Mays: And the fact that they are staring down the gauntlet with this schedule. And I think that's why this makes it worse. Yes. i i will say and this is totally not like me it is completely numerically unrelated seeing them get hit in the mouth in the fourth quarter of games where like something goes like the block punt in week one that led to a touchdown that's the shit that's unacceptable yeah well it's unacceptable like their response to it is a mess they turn the ball over on the next drive it looks like facing adversity they just completely collapse in the fourth quarter of these games And we haven't even talked about the defense.

49:50And that's the part that concerns me most is that even if you were going to say the offense is going to have growing pains, which it could, even if you were going to say they need Ladd McConkie and Justin Herbert has an 8.5 QBR without Ladd McConkie on the field so far this season, like all those things could be true to me. But the defense was going to be the thing that was going to be stable. The defense was going to be the thing that at least if they had hiccups, their defense was going to carry them to wins over the Raiders and the Cardinals. Their defense does not look good. They are not getting a pass rush.

50:17They're 30th in the NFL in pressure rate. And they are 30th in the NFL in pressure rate having played Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins. Those are two dudes who are eminently sackable. I like them both. They're both good players. They are both statues. That is the thing that really concerns me, because if the defense is not even average, the season's over. Like, the offense might get fixed or get better as the year goes along, but I think we've established— By the way, also, they have no tight ends anymore. Charlie Polar and David Njoku are both on IR. So even if you wanted to be a big, heavy personnel team, unless you have Alec Ingold playing tight end next week, your entire offense has to evolve on the fly, which the other offense wasn't working.

51:03and the way a new offense would be any better. So it's just, it feels broken in a way that I find so difficult to believe they can fix on both sides of the ball, especially now that they're playing the toughest schedule in recent memory over the next seven weeks.

51:18Robert Mays: Yeah, I agree. I mean, the defense being what it is, if that was going to happen, you were going to have absolutely no shot this year. The offense was going to have to be spectacular from day one, and I think we probably should have anticipated them taking a little bit of time to figure out some of the kinks. I don't think it was going to be this bad. the last thing I want to say just about the Herbert stuff I do think on Sunday night we were it's pretty harsh about the way that he played going back and re-watching the game it was not as bad as I thought it was in real time I do think that he is taking off from clean pockets and just the the overall like timing and decision making just isn't optimized right now that's what I would say I mean that play where he takes off and gets wrapped up as he like has an incompletion to his right that was the play that was sticking in my mind when he was I was saying that he looked a little bit gun shy in the pocket that wasn't happening as often as I thought I was more focusing on the negatives in real time there are still five six seven plays in this game that are fantastic plays but I don't want to be in a place with him where we're over we're waiting that stuff we're waiting that stuff too much like that because we can do that where we look at the five or six incredible plays and it's like oh man no he played well the all 60 plays matter and I even though I don't think there are many like catastrophic mistakes in the way that he was playing.

52:32Robert Mays: I think that in the same way that there are five or six spectacular throws on that tape, a couple of which were dropped, by the way, there's also five or six plays where you don't love the decision. Like he probably could have taken the crosser there rather than the check down. He probably moved a little bit too fast through the progression on that play. I think it's just a lack of comfort and a lack of trust with what he's being asked to do within the offense, which is understandable. It's a new offense. You're two weeks into it. So I think he has some culpability in what this whole thing has looked like.

53:06Robert Mays: I don't think that the first two games of the season have to be a referendum on Justin Herbert, the player, in a way that a lot of people are trying to make it out to be. He is not the problem and he is not the solution, unfortunately. That's right. And I think that quarterbacks, almost no quarterback is capable of being the solution in this bad of a situation. But the guys that we talk about as the best quarterbacks in the league, the true special MVP level difference-making players, they can be the solution even when things are really, really bad. And I think that is justifiably some people's frustration in the way that others talk about Justin Herbert is that he has talked about as one of these quarterbacks that can be the solution and he often is not.

53:53Robert Mays: And so I want to be clear about this. I am open to changing the conversation that we've had about Justin Herbert over the last few years. I just don't think he's playing quite bad enough for us to fully be changing that conversation two games into the year. That's what I will say. Yeah, I land on. I truly believe Justin Herbert could be an MVP with the appropriate amount of help. But I do think whether it's his propensity for taking sacks, his ability to get heated up, the occasional miss, I do think that he does not have that same ability to elevate what is a mediocre situation typically around him, let alone the disaster that's been around him the first few weeks of the year.

54:37I don't think he has that Mahomes-Allen-Jackson ability to pull that off. And I think we've had several years now where he has not been able to do that consistently. And nobody, I mean, I don't know, maybe Josh Allen could do it. But I don't think anybody could consistently drag this caliber of a disaster offense to adequacy, especially against the schedule that's about to come.

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59:51Robert Mays: Our last one here. We can run through this very quickly. Josh Allen is off to a nuclear start. Why, just absolutely insane. do we think that the all-time season josh allen seems primed for is real i mean yes because we know josh allen has that upside right like it's not like josh allen has to get to like with bryce young we talked about him getting to a level he had not been to previously josh allen has been able to get to that level it's just really hard for anyone to get that level for 17 games my concern is always is he going to get banged up along the way like last year he broke his foot late in the year just played through it you know he is it's either taking any of the rushing load off of him really he's still every sneak every situation they're comfortable running him i guess the thing i wonder beyond the injury like around him what is improved it's the dalton kincaid factor right it's that idea of you know even if you have even if he's not going to average four plus yards per route run like he's run so far this year he was a super efficient route runner running 50 of the snaps for the bills if he's going to be a 70 of the snap guy and he's really effective doing that like that's a fundamental difference maker for the bills especially against man which is where alan has struggled over the past couple of seasons you look at the numbers so so far this season dalton kincaid is behind only jackson smith and jigba in yards per route run you might look at that and say well that's unsustainable right there's no way last year Dalton Kikade finished behind only Jackson Smith and Jigba and Puka Nakua in yards per round run this is solely about how often he was on the field and they're in the role they're asking him to play too I think he has like out of 13 personnel specifically has 17 air yards per target so far this year overall it's like 13 which some of that is the one play against the Texans doing some heavy lifting but when you look at a pretty good play to have in your locker though to say hey i can moss derrick stingley not a lot of tight ends can do that he has right now his air yards per target on the season is just ahead of jalen waddle and brian thomas jr oh sure which is totally normal and so i do think the kincaid factor is part of this getting dj more into the fold even we like i know he's not the most important element of this josh palmer was hurt last year having josh palmer as your third receiver now when he wasn't even on the field last year does make a difference.

1:02:20Robert Mays: That stuff all matters. The most important thing, in my opinion, is the structural changes within the offense. Like them getting to a place. The Bills last year were a heavy under center team because they like to run the ball a lot. They ran the ball from under center 75 % of the time last year. 75 % of the time. Their play action rate has jumped 10 percentage points in the first two weeks from where it was last season. This should be a team that has a dominant or at least like engine worthy under center run game that you build these complimentary intermediate and deep play action shots off. And that's not really what they had been over the last couple of years, despite what the run game looked like.

1:03:04Robert Mays: And so seeing them morph into this where they have a run and pass game that are perfectly tied together, it's led to a more downfield approach to the passing game overall. all you have Kincaid you have DJ Moore and you still have Josh Allen I don't know if it'll be a historic season in the way that it has started where we're talking about like all-time numbers I think that even with a step and a half back they could comfortably be the best offense in the league like I do believe that a version of this is going to be real I mean it's totally plausible like it is not something that I need to see a different level from Josh Allen to prove It's not something where I've only seen it for two games.

1:03:42Like, it is completely plausible to me. And so the question is just, can he sustain it? Can he stay healthy? Can Dalton Kincaid, by the way, stay healthy, someone who has struggled to do that. But if you get that dream scenario or everyone's on the field for 17 games, yes, Josh Allen has a top eight historical season in him. I don't think anyone needs to be convinced of that.

1:04:04Robert Mays: Yeah, but that would be it. That would be what would be different, is that is it going to be like a all-time season? And I think that right now, based on what I've seen so far, that shouldn't be off the table because the changes in the offense are real. Like what they're trying to do is materially different enough that I believe the outcome and the results can be materially different. And this has nothing to do with the playoffs. I don't give a shit about that right now. No, no. We'll talk about that in January. Exactly. Four and a half yards before first contact so far this year. It's nice to be a part of the Bills offense.

1:04:34Robert Mays: All right. That is all we've got for the 2026 version of Is This Real? Bill Barnwell, always appreciate it, sir. Where can people check out all of the wonderful work that you were doing for the worldwide leader over there? It's on ESPN.com. You can check it out. I'm sure it's on the app, on the website, the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, which is also on YouTube. The usual places. But thank you so much, Vince. Good to talk to you, buddy. That's all we got for today. We will be back tomorrow with the week three preview and a little, uh, Falcons Packers recap. That is the Thursday night game. We get, we get the Falcons on Thursday night in primetime, really, really good stuff.

1:05:15Robert Mays: And a Packers team. We were just panicking about the state of their offense. It's going to be a, it's going to be a great, going to be an old school classic Thursday night matchup tomorrow on Amazon. That's all we got for today. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button. So you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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