Jaguars cruise in 33-10 win over Ravens

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2:06Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. An ugly one on Thursday night. The Jags very much take care of business. dug into what we can take about this game for the Ravens, which I don't know is a ton, but just continues to be a very disappointing season from Baltimore, mostly for the defense. Obviously that's the side that you can actually put some blame on in this game compared to what you might've expected. And then the Jags continue to roll. The Jags are one of the best teams in the NFL, continue to take care of business. We dug into all of it with me and Derek Klassen.

2:36Robert Mays: Let's get to that conversation right now.

2:43Robert Mays: a football game was played tonight in baltimore maryland between two teams that are supposed to be nfl teams historically have been nfl teams i don't know what we learned from what we just watched i mean obviously we can dig into some of the elements of it the idea that the ravens passing game was truly non-functional for essentially the entirety of this game you come out in the wildcat on the first play of the game, the first play of the second half. It's not even just that they want to do it in the first half. We had an entire halftime to think about it. And they're like, you know what? We're just going to go right back to it.

3:18Dave Helman: Go back to it. Derrick Henry was technically the starting quarterback today. Like if you go on True Media, it always lists the head coach and the starting quarterback like under the little box score part. And today I was like staring at it for two seconds. I was like, why is it Derrick Henry? Oh, yeah. He took like as many snaps at quarterback as Joey Finiano did, basically.

3:36Robert Mays: My favorite stat from the first half is that Trevor Lawrence completed nine passes. Joe Fignano completed seven passes in the first half. Trevor Lawrence had 197 passing yards and Fignano had 30.

3:52Dave Helman: On two fewer completions. Just not even trying to do the same thing. Trevor Lawrence had two completions of more than 30 yards on a single plays. They opened it with the Borkutcher one and then they hit on the four verts to Parker Washington for a touchdown, like two plays alone that had more than than Fignano was able to complete, which like that's what we expected from this game. But just the fact that like on the other end, Trevor was just coming out like throwing bombs was like this game was really never going to have a chance.

4:20Robert Mays: Back half of the roster quarterback on a short week with his ankle wrapped in bubble wrap. I mean, it looked like the other thing. They were like they're trying to put his leg in a box to move it. there's just no absolutely no shot and so that side of the ball i just again i just don't think there's a lot to really be gleaned on anything that we saw and then even on the other side of the ball there's part of me that wants to kind of put the ravens the ravens defense like deserves some interrogation based on how this season is gone based on how the first half of this game went trevor lawrence finishes with a 50 passing success rate in the rain like there are there's a conversation to be had about the quality we've gotten from the Ravens defense, but it's also one of those games where you're going into this game with Joey Fignano as your starting quarterback.

5:10Robert Mays: Like we've talked about this before. I, there's part of me that doesn't like to, even on the other side of the ball, have a lot of sweeping takeaways from games like this, where, you know, you essentially have no shot and then Kyle Hamilton gets hurt. And now Kyle Hamilton may miss some time with a hip injury. So this entire season for the Ravens is just such an epic

5:28Dave Helman: disaster it it absolutely was and i would say too like the offense like they basically did exactly what you would think in terms of like coming into a game with your third string quarterback where for the first three drives they obviously only score three points but they were like trying shit they came out of they came out on the first drive with like two or three wildcat snaps they had an unbalanced snap they had a zone read for joey finiano at a certain point they were given zay flowers like touches yeah on a key third down so they were throwback pass yes they they unloaded the clip for three drives and had like given the circumstances relative success doing so after that completely dead in the water and that's what you expect and so i think once the defense kind of realizes that that's where it's at the ravens defense uh i mean and then kyle hamilton gets hurt it's kind of just like you throw your and it like it starts raining it's just like pissing rain for the second half like especially for the third quarter it was just dumping on them like at a certain point it's like this game kind of just gets away from you in a way that it's like

6:28Robert Mays: pretty understandable I think the only thing I'd want to sit with on the Ravens side of this is that the first big play to Borkutcher it's 13 personnel he's running a big pile off route on play action Marlon Humphrey is the cover three corner on that play and Nate Borkutcher gets behind him for a 50-yard completion. And if... Looking at this Ravens season, just how disappointing it's been, I do think one of the things that's worth just pointing out is some of the bets they made on some of the aging expensive players on this team look like poor bets coming into this season. Like the idea of extending Mark Andrews and paying Mark Andrews.

7:07Robert Mays: Mark Andrews, they can't save money if they move on from Mark Andrews this year. They would save no money on their 2027 cap by moving on from Mark Andrews, while Isaiah likely has just a ridiculously productive season as a receiver for the Giants. And so I think that is the... Tonight, it doesn't really matter. But in the long run, I think that is the larger conversation that's worth having, even with a Lamar-less Ravens, is that, okay, what is this team in the long run? Like, what is this team in 2027? Like, if you can somehow coax Lamar back, there are so many guys on this team that you've either committed to financially in Andrews's case, you're moving on from in Humphrey's case.

7:50Robert Mays: And it felt like they were in some ways trying to thread a needle with the 2026 version because they did have so many aging pieces. And this was the end of a specific window for a specific type of Ravens team. And that ship seems to have sailed. And so I guess that is the element of this that I kind of have an eye on is that even if Lamar can get back next year and they can figure the things out with Lamar, the rest of the roster and who the Ravens are supposed to be, I still have questions about what that is supposed to look like on a multi-year level.

8:23Dave Helman: I think especially on defense. On offense, I'm like... Defense is almost... Stanley, if you want on offense,

8:29Robert Mays: it's like kind of getting older and like, what are you doing with him? It's all on defense. But that, this... Jesse Minter was supposed to come in with this group of defensive players and they look worse than the Chargers defenses looked over the last couple of years. Did we think that would happen based on the level of talent we saw with the Chargers over the last couple of years and the level of talent we thought the Ravens were going to have?

8:50Dave Helman: No, we came in thinking like in theory, the Baltimore Ravens have more of a field tilting, more field tilting players than the team like the Chargers would. And I would even say this season specifically, the Chargers might be a better defense. Like they've played or at least like a comparable level, which is like crazy, obviously, given that the Chargers are having won a single game this season. And how much we thought Jesse Mintz are coming in. And like, I think what's so frustrating is that I think, especially in the secondary, so many of these guys are just not playing their best ball. Obviously, Kyle Hamilton has had some of the injury stuff.

9:20Dave Helman: But like Marlon Humphrey, outside of the first two or three weeks of the season, has not played particularly well. Malachi Starks, I think, has had a down year after a fairly impressive rookie season. Some of the other guys that they've signed in the secondary, like Hawkins, I don't think has been as impactful as they want. Like the secondary, and I get it. It's a very, it's a difficult system to learn. And like this stuff was, I think, going to take some sort of ramp up time. But you would think with guys that had some of the first round pedigree that a lot of these guys have better familiarity with the system.

9:47Robert Mays: It's yes, it's generally the same defensive ideas.

9:51Dave Helman: Yes, he was in the building. It's not like an entirely new world for them, even if I'm sure Minter has added some stuff since then.

9:56Robert Mays: And so there's differently nuances in terms of how they play certain coverages and things like that. But it's not as if they're asking them to do something drastically different. Like it's not a complete shift in defensive identity from what they've been doing over the last however many years, essentially since McDonald got there.

10:11Dave Helman: It's not. Yeah, it's not like they're going from like a Pete Carroll system to Vic Fangio or whatever. Like it's not like that's different of a thing. And like I think what's been frustrating, too, is that in a lot of ways, I think the front has actually kind of delivered on what you want, which almost makes the defense more frustrating. Because like I think Hendrickson has been good when he's healthy. Travis Jones is playing well. Matt Abike has been good since coming back. Like the linebacker, like Trent Simpson, I think has come on pretty strong for them. Like they, the front has been pretty useful.

10:37Dave Helman: And I thought even today, outside of when the game started to like just unravel for them entirely as a whole team, their run defense was pretty good. Like, especially for the first half of this game, like it really was the Jaguars having to just chuck it down the field. And so I think it's been frustrating that the backend, particularly the coverage unit has just been so, so bad for them.

10:56Robert Mays: I just, yeah, it's, it's just a strange season. Like it's a lost season without Lamar, but I also just don't know who this team is supposed to be. Like as you watch there, I mean, and the defense, I mean, the defense obviously is what I'm talking about. With Lamar, the offense would have been, I think really, really, really good. But the defense is like, what is your identity on defense? Like what is your calling card on defense? Like there's the amount of like soft zone they've played and how teams have been able to pick on them in it. It's just, it's a style and a mentality and just an overall feel to the Ravens defense that I just did not expect to see this year.

11:33Robert Mays: And so it's just been kind of a strange experience.

11:36Dave Helman: It has been. I thought that they would be a lot more buttoned up because especially to like, and maybe this is just Minter, obviously having more familiarity in the league, more confidence, all that stuff. But like when I watched him early on with the Chargers, it's not that they didn't do cool stuff, but it was a little bit more pared down with some of this stuff. And they were just like, the rules were really good. Everyone was taught well. They're getting guys like Cam Hart to just fly to the ball. and it felt like with this Ravens defense maybe because of the pedigree of the players maybe because you know guys like Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins they're veterans in this league now I know Wiggins is a little bit younger but still guys who have shown good ball in this league I think he thought maybe they could just handle more mentally because like some of their coverage rotations especially earlier on the season were like they were doing some crazy shit yeah and I get why you think you can do that but like if that was what you thought you had coming in but got none of the safeties are playing well other than Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey has started to decline over the season it's like well you can't really do all of that crazy stuff unless you have like a top five pass rush and I think their pass rush is better but it's not that I'm curious like

12:39Robert Mays: what the cover two rate for the Ravens is so far this season I guarantee you it's like up near the top of the league right in terms of how frequently they've played it I would probably get especially

12:49Dave Helman: earlier in the season that was a lot of their weird rotation stuff was getting into a lot of the cover which like this family of defense is kind of like a lot of the guys who have come from the Raven system before like that, like Denard Wilson and Anthony Weaver, both really, really like that. And I know their defenses are a little bit different than Minter, but those guys played a lot of that stuff, especially like when Weaver was in Miami.

13:09Robert Mays: So 18.1 % cover two over the first throughout so far this season, which is the fifth highest rate in the NFL. And then I'm curious, just going back to last year, just for reference where the chargers were.

13:25Dave Helman: yeah the chargers always felt like more of a quarters team they are and so last year the

13:29Robert Mays: chargers were at 12.9 the league average is 13.9 and so you're just seeing a lot more of it and that more zero from the ravens this year but just the same the same frequency of just playing straight man coverage like cover one which i thought that they would do more of with their defensive personnel than they have even if it wasn't going to be straight man coverage i thought we'd see like a little bit more like matchy up in your face quarters than we've seen from this team. Like it's just been a more passive style of defense overall on the back end, relying more, like you're saying, I'm like funky rotations and just bullshit that I kind of expected from them based on like the guys that they have on the back end.

14:10Robert Mays: And maybe they don't think they can hold up that way. Like Marlon Humphrey, we've talked about this so many times, but coming into the season, Marlon Humphrey to me was like the swing player for the entire defense. If Marlon Humphrey had a good season I would have felt good about what the Ravens were and he just has not like it's just been a continuation of some of the disappointing play that we've seen from him over the last couple years and so again just a version of this defense even beyond quality that I just don't think I expected to see in terms of approach and identity that what I thought they might be coming into the year it's it's been odd yeah and like I still I still think long-term like

14:46Dave Helman: Minter can figure this out I think they'll be fine but yes but this year it's just not been what you want and it's like when you look at some of the other defensive coordinators who are jumping into their first time with new teams being able to do some like more creative stuff like Jonathan Gannon with the Packers I think has done some gotten some guys to play really and I think their their safety room is like kind of insane and so I get it they can do some of that stuff but still the Steelers and Patrick Graham like they've done some really interesting stuff it's his first year over there and so it's like some of these other guys have figured out maybe obviously a little bit different because Minter is the head coach.

15:17Dave Helman: And so maybe there's just some other things that are on his plate, but there's other guys in the building who have worked with him before, who have been DCs before. It's like, I did think that this would be a little bit more buttoned up and they would feel like they had a more clear identity as a defense.

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19:25Robert Mays: On the other side of this, again, I don't know how much I learned about the Jacksonville Jaguars in this game that I didn't already know. I think my main thought about the Jags is one that I've started having over the course of this week and continue to have. The game that the Bears had against the Seahawks on Monday night, I think a lot of people were getting excited. if you just look at national media and some of the conversations and some of the talk shows about, you know, the Bears being potentially Super Bowl favorites or in the short list of Super Bowl favorites. And we were talking about this in the office today.

19:56Robert Mays: I think pretty much all of the things you could say about what makes the Bears an exciting team and a team worth putting in that sort of stratosphere or on that sort of level this year, you could say the exact same thing about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right now, the Jags offense specifically, we don't usually see similar to the conversation about Chicago, which is, I think is part of what makes them exciting. The combination of a once every, however many years quarterback talent with one of the true difference-making needle moving offensive architects is just not a pairing. We often see in the NFL, like you'll get some of the really good play callers that are paired with good quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, people like that.

20:45Robert Mays: But very rarely do you get one of those guys with the alien quarterbacks, like the look at the set of tools this guy is bringing to the position quarterbacks. And that's what the combination of Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen is. And it continues to be terrifying and potent. And I think at the core of it, like that is what makes the Jags such a promising and exciting team for this season specifically. And I think what makes them and puts them on the short list of favorites to win the Super Bowl is that that combination of those two guys within this offensive infrastructure is really, really, really dangerous.

21:23Dave Helman: It's incredibly to end like the skill players on both of these teams, like they go so deep at those spots where both of these teams can just do so much that I think is incredible. And like, I know, again, some of these other play callers have had great quarterbacks and like Stafford. I think when he came out and was younger, like was that level of guy. But by the time he's in Los Angeles, obviously the arm is still there. But like athletically, he's not up to the same level as like what Trevor can do right now, what Caleb can do right now. And so obviously you can play at a high level, but it's just different.

21:49Dave Helman: The stuff that they are allowed to get away with, I think, with teams like Jacksonville, with teams like Chicago. I think what's the differences to me really come down to like the defense, like I think offensively and what they can accomplish. The offensive line and run game situation, obviously, I think gives a little bit of a tilt. Yeah, there are nuances there.

22:06Robert Mays: I'm not even trying to like say which one deserves that sort of thing over the other. I just think that in terms of the broad reasoning as to like why people are getting a little bit, not ahead of themselves necessarily, but getting to that place with the Bears. It's like you can just replace Jaguars with Bears and like every single one of every single set, like every single reason, every single argument, you can just put the Jaguars in the exact same spot.

22:29Dave Helman: And there also is like a novelty to the consistency that we've like, we have never really seen the Bears have consistency at quarterback and offense like this, like at least not in my lifetime. And with the Jaguars, we've just never seen them be good, period, consistently. Like they've had seasons, right? Like obviously the 2017 season where the defense is completely insane. But like with the way the offense was designed, it was like you're getting by with Blake Bortles. Like this is not the same as like having one of those dudes at quarterback reaching his peak while. Oh, yeah. On the other side, we have the fifth or sixth best defense in the NFL, a coordinator who's calling stuff at a high level and like a secondary that I think is playing really well right now.

23:08Dave Helman: And so like they just I think the Jaguars the last two weeks, like obviously they're playing teams that are completely dead in the water. But I do think that like they've played really good games against really good teams and they have not that many weaknesses. Like they're a very well-rounded team, even if they're like, if we're nitpicking against true contenders, they've got weaknesses, but like there are unbelievable team across the board.

23:29Robert Mays: Yeah. I want to be clear. The 33 to 10 win over the Ravens is not what makes me say the Jags are one of the best teams in the league on the short list of Super Bowl contenders. It's who they've been for the entirety of this season. Yes. And I think who they continue to be when you play teams that are significantly worse than you, you should beat the shit out of those teams. And that's exactly what the Jags did over the last two weeks. and I'm 100 % with you. I think that the offense is so well constructed. The pieces are really well suited for the roles that are being asked to play. Like what Parker Washington is within this offense, what Travis Hunter is within this offense, what Jacoby Myers even is within this offense, what Basial Tootin has been for this team, and then the way the quarterback is playing.

24:11Robert Mays: We'll see how the rest of the season unfolds. But if I was putting money down right now, I wonder what his odds are.

24:19Dave Helman: I wonder before or after this game, obviously, like in terms of this game is an interesting question. This game, like in terms of like the optics is not changing anything, but like statistically is going to help him when you throw for like 10 yards of pass. I mean, come on.

24:31Robert Mays: So he's nine to one, like nine hundred to nine fifty to one right now. Just quick glance at one of the sports books. I think that's a really solid potential MVP bet. Where does that rank him? Like six, maybe fifth. OK, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence. like i everyone's very excited about killa williams i understand that killa williams

24:50Dave Helman: missed three games he missed three games the only art is like mvp there it's not that many years where somebody truly runs away with the mvp it's usually like there is some sort of argument for the other guy i mean last year in particular was like as close as it gets the tiebreaker would be that like if one guy misses three games and the other guy plays 17 kind of just got to give it to the guy who played all the games. If there's some, if we're doing value.

25:15Robert Mays: And when we look at historic MVP winners, one of the biggest drivers of MVP winners is whoever has the best record, who gets the buy, who gets the one seed. And if you're looking at where the Jags are right now, here are the Jags remaining football games. They play the Titans, the Giants, the Titans again, the Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Commanders, Colts. they play in Chicago I assume in that game the Bears would be like three point favorites other than that is there a game they won't be the favorite in in all of those that they play for the rest of the season we'll see where the Texans are on December 20th but like that seems far-fetched like it's it's in it's in Houston is the only reason I even say that like would they be like I don't know what used to be a one-point favorite at home if they like truly turn things around but even that seems not that likely like they will probably be the better team in every single game they play definitively outside of again according to the markets outside of when they go to chicago in december that might be the only one that like the steelers may you know this

26:25Dave Helman: they'll be favored against the sealers but that is at least a team that will beat that like can beat them the other ones like i think if they get beat it would be an upset it would have to have been the Jags like fumbling around which like famous last words I do feel like I'm at the point with this Jags Wars team where like I just am not that worried about them fumbling around and losing that many stupid games maybe one of these days drop but I can't really imagine the world where like two or three of these get out of their hand for them I just like it's hard for me to see that

26:50Robert Mays: well let's just say they lose one of them stupidly which I've every every team does every team does to lose one of those stupidly and let's just say they lose in Chicago when they aren't favored that's two they have two losses now 13 and 4 puts you at 13 and 4 and so they do right now I think have a pretty good shot of seriously competing to be the one seed in the AFC and that on top of the way that Trevor Lawrence has played and the numbers he will likely put up over the rest of the season I think there's a very real path for him to be the MVP of the league and it's not just circumstantial It's not just because they'll be the one seed.

27:26Robert Mays: He's playing at an extremely high level in an offense that makes the most of the player that he is. That throw he rips to Brenton Strange over the middle. Like there just aren't that many guys willing to even attempt those, let alone complete them with the frequency that he has this year for this team.

27:43Dave Helman: Yeah, you got to have you got to have some an iron stomach to handle some of that stuff, like the throws that he is willing to make. And I think what's beautiful about and this is really, I think, what has been the culmination of everything with Trevor Lawrence in this offense. Trevor coming out of college and in college, that was the thing with him is like he will live or die by certain making certain throws. And it was kind of beaten out of him for a little bit, whether it was offensive line, obviously cratering and of the Doug Peterson era just kind of became like all RPO and like quick game stuff.

28:14Dave Helman: I hated, hated, hated the 2023 season.

28:18Robert Mays: I hated watching them.

28:19Dave Helman: that's why obviously much shorter timeline that's kind of why the matthew stafford like comparison works for tripper it's because stafford went through the like jim bob cooter just throwing a million screens ferraris in the garage short of offense and you get liam cohen and he's like no

28:33Robert Mays: we're gonna hit the highway and go 95 let's go it's it's really well designed around the things he does well like this should be an intermediate that's what he was at clemson like i just remember like the laser show intermediate areas like watching him throw seam balls at clemson was insane and that is the type of quarterback that he is now we were joking about it at halftime he attempted in the first half of this game twice as many passes of 10 plus air yards as he did throws under 10 yards twice as many going for it it was 10 to 5 and he completed eight of those like that is the style of this offense and that's partially what makes them so fun to watch you have a guy a quarterback who is willing to make all of those throws and then you have a system where there's going to be four or five chunks just based purely on design that they can get in any single game it is a very potent combination again similar to the chicago conversation where these types of quarterbacks with this type of physical talent do not often get paired with these types of play callers where you know they are in a situation that is maximizing every ounce of who they can be as players and that's where we are with Trevor Lawrence and that is what is making this so incredibly exciting and why I think that this could be the year where again like he steals one of those MVPs as a guy hitting his ceiling in really in a really really

30:02Dave Helman: good environment yeah I'm I'm obviously over the moon about how they're playing like they're just And the other thing, too, about them getting to the one seed and all that, like this, some of these other teams who are have really high powered offense. The Bears are a good example. The defense is fine, but they get by more on like obviously the explosive plays and things happening for them. And they give up a couple of drives and then they flip it because they get a huge sack or a turnover, whatever. The Jaguars defense can obviously make plays, but they just don't let games get away from them.

30:31Dave Helman: And that is such a reassuring thing to have as an offense where you just have a good feeling that the defense is not going to let it run away from you.

30:38Robert Mays: They're just really, really well put together on that side of the ball. They have been for two years. I mean, Anthony Campanillo was my assistant coach of the year last year in the NFL. I think he's just a really good defensive coordinator. The only thing, and this is we're talking about on December 20th when we're talking about the weaknesses of contenders and what ultimately might come back to bite them. The injuries they've had along both fronts are the thing that probably gives me the most pause. But that's a problem for another day. That's a problem for the most important games of the season.

31:07Robert Mays: And there's a trade deadline to potentially fix one of those problems. This is a team where it's unfortunate that it's the same division. This would be a perfect Grover-Stewart team if the Colts were not in the AFC South. This would be a perfect Grover-Stewart team. And I honestly, I doubt they would do it because just, I think they don't want to be seen is throwing in the towel. I think they have hopes about what the roster can be this year into next year. But if I were James Gladstone, I would just be calling. I'd be doing the same thing the Bears did with Jeffrey Simmons, where it's a guy that isn't theoretically available.

31:41Like, give Dan Morgan a call

31:44Robert Mays: and just see what it would take to get Derek Brown. Right?

31:47Dave Helman: Oh, that would be it. They clearly have, the Jags have an appetite for doing shit like that. Like, that would not surprise me if they are at least poking around.

31:54Robert Mays: I would like, if they added an interior defensive lineman just to kind of act as a backstop, for losing Devon Hamilton and really was one of the final pieces you needed on that defense. They can make a move at safety. Like there are other things they theoretically could do, but the pieces they've lost and what that might mean as we go down the stretch is really the only thing about this team that gives me any sort of pause. Everything else about who they actually are, the people in charge of this thing, what they look like on both sides of the ball. I said it like a month into the season. This is a Super Bowl team.

32:26Robert Mays: Like this is the type of team that can win a Super Bowl. And I still, even with some of the injuries, just firmly believe that about the Jacks.

32:33Dave Helman: And the last thing I'll say, even with some of that stuff, if you get the one seed and you're consistently playing at home and against the lesser teams in the playoffs, you might be able to squeeze by. Obviously, there's going to be a lot of great AFC teams.

32:44Robert Mays: They might still be the best team. Even with those injuries, they might still be the best AFC team.

32:49Dave Helman: Yes. And so, like, there are ways to get past it, even if they are imperfect, obviously.

32:55Robert Mays: Yeah. I mean, they are good, man. man. Like the Jags are just like, there's just really no way around it. The Jags are really good. And I think they are going to be really good and they have a pretty easy road the rest of the way, minus like one or two games. So we could be seeing this team stack up a bunch of wins and root to the one seed and hosting games in that stadium that they're currently like actively working on. All right. That is all we've got for Thursday night football. Thankfully, we've got two really good other primetime games that do not involve a third string starting quarterback on Sunday and Monday.

33:27Robert Mays: We will be back for both of those. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

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