Lessons learned from this season's conference title game participants

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. We had a really fun show today. We had a really good time. We do the show every year now the final four lessons. teams that made the conference championship games. What can we learn from the way that they were built? What can we take forward from that? What should other teams pick up on? We've done this show since I've started doing the podcast. So it's been, I think five or six years, five or six different iterations. Most of the time, the guest that we've had on that show is some combination of me, Nate Tice and Bill Barnwell. So we just decided to do that again.

0:36Our old buddies, Barnwell from ESPN, Nate from Yahoo, who joined us today to just walk through about a dozen lessons we can learn from the teams that were left on Conference Championship weekend. Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks, Rams. What should teams take from that? Are there any things that maybe are a little bit misleading? What does it tell us about the NFL in general? This was an incredibly fun, wide-ranging conversation. Let's get to it with both of those guys right now.

1:05It would has become an annual tradition at this point. I feel like we've done this show probably the last four or five years and some combination of the two of you have been on most of the times that we've done it. I figured this was the chance for us to get the band back together. It is time to run through some lessons from the final four teams left in the NFL here to help me do that are two of my old and wonderful friends. First of all, from ESPN, it's my good friend, Bill Barnwell. Barnwell, how you doing, man? um looks like i dressed for a different podcast so uh did not get you're so fixated on this you don't look that much nice you're great wow okay so in between uh i don't look that nice i look great i'm gonna take nate's side of this thank you for complimenting me my friend of course that's not what i meant i meant that you're not dressed like you're not dressed for that much of a different occasion than we are but you look great i'm not disagreeing with him also joining us today.

1:58It's our old friend from Yahoo, Nate Tyson. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great. Like I said before the show, I didn't wear a hat on our Sunday show because I finally got a haircut after two months. And I thought some of our listeners, they acted like I was wearing a suit or a tux. They were just in shock that they just saw my hair for the first time in about two years. So yeah, no, I'm doing wonderful. Very happy to be here. I was glad when you sent that text. Like, hey, Final Four teams. Hey, it's time. Let's do it. So very excited to be here. I love the show. There are like five or six shows we do every single year where like, no matter what the staffing on the show looks like, no matter how many times a week we do the show, no matter what any of the other structural things are, we're going to do this podcast.

2:39And so this is one of them. Every year we're doing this because I think it's such a fun way to use these collections, this collection of teams, these four teams as a way to point to larger themes about the NFL. I think it's a really good exercise. It's useful and it's fun. And so we're going to continue going back to it. This is a very simple kind of deal here. We each came with, I said four ish to you guys, right? It was four ish. Was that the direct? I was like, I think I have like 12. So I said four ish, four ish lessons. You think you can pull from the final four teams left in the NFL. For those of you guys that are wondering, that means the Patriots, the Broncos, the Rams and the Seahawks.

3:17So what kind of through lines can we find from those teams that we can maybe attach ourselves to and use as directives for how teams should think about how to get to this weekend moving forward. Barnwell, you have 12, so we're going to start with you. What is your first lesson that you took away from the final four teams in the NFL this year? Okay, so this is not my idea. I didn't come up with this, obviously. I know Greg Olson has talked about this a lot during broadcast. Obviously, I think Greg Olson does phenomenal work. but it is borne out by the final four teams. And that is this idea that what really matters in the NFL now is not yardage, field goals, but explosive plays and your ability to produce explosive plays and stop explosive plays.

4:06And I know there's a little bit of totality to that. Like, you know, you want to get a lot of those and you want to stop a lot of those. I don't think that's like a brand new idea. But if you look at explosive play differential, and I think this is 12-yard runs, 16-yard passes, or longer. Seahawks, number one in explosive play differential and I think the ninth best explosive play differential rate since 2000 behind a bunch of Shanahan teams, the greatest, or 2001 greatest show on turf, Rams, and then a couple of Legion of Boom teams. Rams number two, Patriots number four, Broncos number five.

4:43Four of the five teams atop the NFL in explosive play differential are in the final four. Can you guys guess who number three is? Colts? Packers? That is a good guess. Packers. Packers. They've got it. Packers are number three. So this idea that like the best teams, what they are doing, they're giving up yards here and there. It doesn't really matter. Patriots are terrible in the red zone, for example. They're the worst red zone defense in football. But if you can control the explosives and you can create explosives, that is what actually makes the difference and moves the needle in the NFL in 2025.

5:16I love this. Where are you, Natives? You've done your like your suplex stuff over the last couple of years, which for you is like it's a it's a good measure. And it's a good thought where you're combining essentially success rate and explosive play rate and trying to build them into one metric to get a sense of not only how explosive these offenses are, but how consistent down to down they are. Have you noticed any sort of vacillations on the line between explosiveness and success rate where it started to trend more toward big plays with the offenses that you're like, this is what you should be chasing?

5:44Yeah, no, absolutely. For passing, I found the goal number is 14%, just pass attempts. That doesn't include scrambles. I've kind of made up my own little like scrambling explosives as well because I've realized that the running explosives can get skewed. But no, 14 % passing. And then I found rushing, it's explosive runs matter if you don't get explosive passes. But if you do have explosive passes, then explosive runs becomes a little bit less necessary. And I felt like there was rushing success rate, 40 % is kind of the golden mark. You know, you can go plus one, minus one about from there, but more or less, that's the mark I'm looking for.

6:21But no, I've really taken this as some of my dad's ever has believed in. And really, he got it from Brian Billick. Brian Billick had toxic differential, which was explosives and turnovers, not just turnover differential. So that's something I've always kind of looked at. But no, I really do think that's the way to make a run because especially when you feel in playoff time, more than anything, is how clamped down these defenses are. They're so keyed in on everything you want to do. Watch what the Seahawks did against the Rams offense. Truly one of the best offenses we've seen in 20 years, like really of the new millennium.

6:54And every third and fourth down, they couldn't do anything. They had negative yards on third down for almost the entire game. I did not check to update that stat at the end of the game. They had negative yards, and that's because you had to get it on first and second down. They're so tight to what formations you want to use, motions you want to use, what they expect you to run, that getting an explosive on first and second down, then we don't have to be perfect on third down. Then we don't have to be perfect for five plays in a row. So it's just, it's always been important, but it kind of got a little away from that because I think it became a little bit easier as far as just to be efficient.

7:26And now I think as the, you know, we see how these defenses play very top down, very keep everything underneath you, being able to break that bubble is just the key to everything. It opens up so much. You have to threaten. It has to be a valid threat. So it's like three point shooting. That's always why I kind of compared it to in basketball. It's interesting now because I think that we used to live in a world where there are a lot of explosives in a single high defensive universe. If you go back to like the 2017, 2018 Rams. And it's funny watching because the Bears are really an explosive offense, right?

7:57Yeah. But the Bears were worth that explosive throwing the ball against the Rams. And I think it's because where are you seeking out these explosives with the new offensive world that we play in? Go look at where the Niners, go look at the Niners offense against the Seahawks. I know they were banged up by the time we played those two games, but where the Niners want to throw the ball all over the middle of the field, intermediate areas of the field, that as defenses are structured like the Seahawks are, it's going to be really difficult to create explosives there. Well, where did the Rams get their explosive against the Seahawks?

8:26You can still, despite what some people on the internet say, win one-on-one outside the number of shots against quarters. That in this universe is still possible. And that's where the Rams were getting all of their explosive plays. And so where it used to be, could you hit these explosive 18-yard intermediate crossers off play action? Now, explosives are still available to you. You just have to access them in different parts of the field. And the team that could do that against Seattle is the only team that was consistently able to string together explosive plays against them. Other thing I would just mention is we do have different rules now, right?

9:01And so going back 10 years, The average field position starting a drive is up three yards from where it was a decade ago. And so with the new touchback rules, with the desire to kick off and play a kickoff as opposed to touchback coming out of the 20, you only need one explosive to score. And you combine that with the fact that you have field goal kickers who can hit from 55, from 60 teams who are willing to attempt that. You know, increase in fourth down rate and the successes on fourth down. like you really only need one explosive play and not like a 40 yard explosive you might be able to get a 20 yard explosive maybe get one first down maybe not even a first down after that and that's in field goal range so you might get three out of that one before you know you needed more than that you needed an explosive and a couple more first downs to score and so it does you know even getting that one explosive you're getting an extra three points that maybe you wouldn't have gotten a decade ago just because of where you were starting on the field adds up and makes a difference over the long run.

10:01I like this a lot because I think that when you get to the other side of the field, you're more prone to go for it on fourth down. So if you get one explosive play, now you're in a spot where like there is a larger percent. I'm sure the numbers would bear this out if you looked at them. If you're on the other side of the 50, your chances of scoring a touchdown increase, not only because you're closer to the end zone, but because you're more prone to go forward and use all four downs in those situations. And another thing I think is funny in talking to defensive coordinators for a show we did earlier this year about the kicking changes, multiple guys I talked to were like, I used to be in a spot where on the other side of the 50, I'm playing with a lot of cushion.

10:36I don't want to give up explosives because I want them to string drives together. Well, if you're starting on the 35, that's not the mindset anymore. Because if you're stringing together a couple, a couple of first downs, you're already in opponent territory. So now I think there's an easier chance to hit explosives based on defensive mindset because of where the drives are starting. So there's just so many things that play into this it's it's fascinating it really is no i and it even comes down to receiver size because now you're seeing more zone and the ways that you beat so much cover two and cover six like the seahawks around the seahawks are more cover six and quarters but like these two high defenses is dig routes and stuff over the middle and and those big routes like you said on the outside against quarters but that all requires kind of size to like win those spots because there's just so much tighter coverage somewhere areas where there's just a lot of muck that you have to throw to when it was the single high world, when everybody was running Legion of Boom stuff.

11:29All right, if it's three match, it's like you said, it was those over crossing routes. That's speed. That's more of a speed thing because you're running away from a guy as opposed to catching and throwing to areas that are tight with a guy over the top and underneath. It's just, yeah, it's a really cool thing. I actually have some segues from here to my point, but no, this is everything. This is explosives are always going to be the name of the game, but it just cranks up even more because defenses are going like, I bet you can't do that eight times in a row. I bet you can't do it eight times in a row.

11:56And that's what they're winning right now, I would actually say. You hear how excited he is, Barnwell, about the idea that we're bringing back 6 '4 perimeter receivers? The fact that that's going to be back in vogue again? You can just hear the glee in his voice that we're turning back that direction. We're going to hear my voice in this one. Carolina Panthers fan Nate Tice talking about the dream offense. They have a receiver room after my own heart. It's the best. I mean, shoot, the Rams tried to trade for Tetreault McMillan. And so if you imagine Devontae Adams, Puka Nikoa, Nikoa, McMillan, oh, this is exactly what I wanted.

12:30All right, Nate, let's hear your first one. If you have something that's an extension of that, that's great, but it sounds like you have stuff that's in the same general vicinity. I do. Well, I'm curious how I want to segue here because I have two points I could, but I'll go with this. And this is more of talking about size and everything and talk about skill players and everything. And I know tight ends have been a big discussion of this whole season and then 13 person and all that. I went, why tight ends? Not a question, just the letter Y, tight ends, is how important those guys are, basically, with the personnel of defenses, with guys that are valid blockers.

13:03It used to be, can a tight end be a valid receiver? And that's more, yeah, all of these guys are, because it's just how they have to play in college. Now it's more, how can you play in line? How can you play more snaps and impact more snaps? And something I've just, I always just love to see the kind of the seesaw of this, about what kind of guys are valuable. I mean, the Bears, Colson Loveland, this is why I preferred him over Warren in that process, because I was like, yeah, I really like Warren, but Loveland down the road is going to be able to impact more snaps. And if you look at these teams, the Final Four teams, A.J.

13:34Barner, of course, great blocker, good enough receiver where he's a valid receiver. He's the guy that, you know, you can't just wash away. Parkinson, of course, and the Rams tight ends, but I would say Parkinson most importantly, because he is a blocker and a valid receiver as well. The Patriots guys, this is kind of, it kind of tapers off, but they at least have two guys that are playable. I wouldn't say they're great blockers in Hooper and Henry, but they're playable and they're not negatives. They're not negatives. They don't have to be hidden. And that's what, again, this is what I'm getting to my point.

14:04And then Trotman with the Broncos, very valid blocker, Adam Trotman. And you can feel a little bit of deficiencies there, but at least he can be run behind. And if you look on next-gen stats, strong side runs, so runs towards the tight end, have a 43 % success rate, and negative 0.04 EPA per carry, that's the highest it's been in NextGenStats history. In 2017, which is the furthest, you can kind of like, you can go to 2016, but 2017, the numbers are a little bit better. That number was 37 % success rate and negative 0.09 EPA per carry. So, and this is just a, not just a philosophical thing, but also the personnel that's being used.

14:40Defenses are not only using nickel and dime. So it's making these tight ends that are 245, 248. Those guys can be wise now when 15, 20 years ago, oh, you're a receiving tight end. You're not big enough to handle DNs because this is my last little point here. Average weight of NFL DNs and outside linebackers. So this is true media, minimum 200 snaps. This year is 263 and a half pounds. 10 years ago in 2015, it was 275 pounds. It's dropped over 10 pounds. And so now that's just opened up more possibilities for these guys. And I think the impact that they can bring and not just the final four teams.

15:14Josh Oliver got paid this year. John Bates from Washington got paid this year. We talked about Jackson Hawes in the middle of the season. Buffalo, the Bills. Another team. And this isn't going away. It's a swap for their 6-0 stuff from last year. Exactly. Moving towards 13 as opposed to Jefferson-League 6-0. But why I think this is so fun is that the 6-0 offensive line stuff from last year is already outdated. Yeah. Because it's so funny how fast things change. It's like half a page. It's like half a page. Because now it's not outdated. You can get to it in different ways. Well, I think a lot of teams did it this year.

15:47More teams did it this year, but then you saw the best offenses already move past it, right? And so if you kind of tapped into that this year, you were already like a half step behind because, and I think it's for a few different reasons. One, if you have three tight ends on the field, like the Rams do, all of those guys are valid receivers. Despite the fact that we saw probably like 10 throws to sixth offensive lineman this season on accident, which were some of my favorite plays of the entire year. like those guys are not the Packers Bears one was one of my favorite plays of the entire season they threw one to Benedict in the divisional round he was 18 miles an hour on that round so now having those guys, all three of them can catch passes is just such a huge advantage and the Bills did the exact same thing but the other part of it, and Nate, I think this plays so well into your point about the smaller defensive ends there are two games that are coming to mind to me when I think about how these multi tight end teams are trying to run the ball lot of those sets.

16:41If you think about the bills game against the Broncos in the playoffs, and then the way the Rams attack the Seahawks, they're getting those tight ends on the move and they're trying to cave in that side or cave out that side. You're just trying to move that big, that perimeter defender and get space out there. And so that is impossible in part because of tight ends and because tight ends just move better, right? You can get those guys on the move. They're just better blockers in space. And so that attacking that specific area, we're just trying to get like this collective movement on these edge players to kind of blow that side out and try to find explosives there.

17:18That's something that just kept coming up over and over again this season when you watch it. And I feel like that's a combination of the tight ends being on the field and those edge defenders just getting a little bit smaller. You're retaining like a certain level of plausible deniability, right? Like, like I think there's this push and pull on both sides of the football of we want to hide what our intentions are post-snap for as much as possible. And you can do that on defense. We see teams spinning their safeties. We see teams providing different looks, and teams are more aggressive about that than they used to be.

17:48And I think on offense, one of the ways you do that, obviously you can do it with scheme, and we'll talk about a lot of other ways, but you can do that with personnel. And so, you know, in a league where you want to be running the ball more often, where you're being incentivized on a defensive structure to run the ball more often, like being in multi-titant groupings being in um even if you're playing 11 even if you're playing with one titan on the field as long as you have a titan who can block like it is such a a difference maker and so like this isn't like some you know again genius point it's pretty obvious but it does i think it is worth saying i have another one i'm going to get to later on that's kind of in the same vein but just sort of like this idea of you know you're opening up the possibilities and leaving the opposing team with fewer tells for what you want to do.

18:33That's it. As you're lining up. It's a tendency thing. And that's what's so, I have a point here. It says like defenders are smaller, but defenses are smarter than ever, like ever, ever. And I easily can say that. And just when you feel them playoff time, especially in these, I mean, these staffs are so good. They know your tendencies. Like, I mean, to a T, who's on the field, where they're aligned, where are the odds that you're going to do something? And again, this is like a rock, paper, scissors thing. Yeah, you might not do it 100 % of the time, but if I know that so-and-so is in line, 80 % of the time they don't run that to his direction.

19:08Dolan Kincaid might be my best example. All right, if he's attached to the formation, they're not running right here. It's either play action, they're passing, or it's an RPO. But then defenses are so good now. You used to be able to get away with that, but then it becomes the smart offensive coaches play off of that, like Jake Bobo touchdown. And the Seahawks, I know that's a receiver. but also checkdowns and how offensive coaches use these guys has been weaponized. You talked about caving in, putting those guys on the move. That's been, I think, the genius of what the Shanahan guys called the Zorro concept, where a guy's in motion and kicks it out.

19:40That was a necessity because these tight ends couldn't block the defensive ends across from them. And so let's give them some help. And now you can see that kind of popularized the checkdowns the Broncos use and other teams, the Packers kind of popularized this, where the guy chips and then the tight end releases. We talked about this, Barnwell, we texted about the Steelers doing it, where they chip and the guy releases and then there's a swing route right there. So even the guys that might be, oh, this guy, I would just make up a guy. Josh Oliver's on the field. Okay, he's not going to catch a pass.

20:09Well, now he's getting weaponized as a lead blocker, and now we can't just tee off on that, that this is actually a pass play they can get to. And on top of it, to bring up to your guys' first point, talking about how aggressive coaches are and where everything's scoring range is, third downs have become second downs. in some instances. So a third and five, I can run 12 personnel with my wide tight end, a guy that's not a receiver because it's technically almost a rundown, not a rundown, but more like a second and long than what used to be a third and long. And I think that's another thing. So those downs become more, like these guys are on the field more because those downs are more live downs for them.

20:45So it's just this, all of it kind of tying together. And I just think that receiving tight ends hit a kind of a ceiling. And now the blocking aspect of it is becoming more prioritized and becoming more of a valuable commodity for these guys. Yeah, and then if you are approaching third and five and saying, okay, we can present the threat of running the football. That's when you have to run the football. Just because you can have a plausible deniability of we can come with 12 personnel and just run dual on third and five because we're going to run on the fourth down as well. Now you can open up explosives off of play action on third and five for us before.

21:19That was not typically a down where you might have the opportunity to spike an explosive. So if you were to be playing to the sticks. The Rams could go 12 personnel on third and five with Parkinson, Ferguson, and Adams and Nakua. And they could run anything. And you have to defend it now. It's not third and five how it was 10 years ago. It's like, all right, pass. Thousand percent pass here, guys. All right, here comes the blitz. They might just run duo on us, run all over us. It's very cool to see how these teams are getting to it now. It's funny you guys talking about this idea of defenses being able to hide what they want to do and their intentions.

21:48And then offense is trying to do the same. That to me, and this isn't one of my points because it doesn't really fit the Broncos. but it fits the Rams and the Seahawks 100%. The reintroduction of high play action rates this season, specifically by teams like the Rams, where the Rams didn't run play action four years ago when they went to the Super Bowl, and now they have the highest play action rate in the game again. And so the reason they went away from play action is because as defensive structures changed, the ways that you would access play action with those crossers became less effective.

22:15Well, now they've gone back to it without trying to access those routes, I think in large part because in my mind, this is how I've kind of bucketed it, play action offense is the same as starting in two high shells on defense. It's just a way to be able to do anything. It's just a way to hide your intentions. And so even if you're not accessing the same types of explosive shots off play action, you were seven, eight years ago, the, the confusion you create by lining up under center and using play action, you're doing the exact same thing to defenses that defenses have tried to do to offenses over the last five years.

22:48And so the more things you can do to credibly provide the defense with three different options before the play, the better. And more and more offenses, I think, went back to that world this season after we trended much more to a spread out shotgun. Even like the two teams that did it that I think were the teams that like, oh, man, like this is canary in the coal mine stuff. We should be paying attention to this. When the Rams and the Niners stopped using under center play action, that's when the league changed for like three years. And the fact that they're now back there, I think, really shows us what that cycle has looked like.

23:21Yeah, I'm in the middle of watching every single Seahawks play action stop from this year for the Super Bowl preview. That's what I stopped doing to do this podcast. Yeah, Rams number one under center this year. Seahawks number two in terms of under center rate. Patriots nine, Broncos 16. Yeah, and just speaking to what you're talking about, and I think offhand someone told me this, so I don't know if I can use the quote. But I know the Shanahan guys, and I think even Kyle specifically, said you can't run play action how you used to because now everyone does what Jim Schwartz used to do. Just tee off on it.

23:53Drake May got sacked against the Broncos on a bootleg. So just a traditional fake zone bootleg outside the pocket got sacked. Ten years ago, no defensive end would have been doing that and running straight at him. That's totally changed how defenders are taught to play because everybody's running that. So now all the fakes, if you really watch the Rams, but Seahawks too, too. It's not zone fakes. It's duo fakes. It's downhill. Yes. Straight play action. It's a different type of play action that they're using now. And the guys, it's so cool that the guys that kind of popularized the old one are now doing the one that's not really their offense.

24:27That's Sean Payton's stuff. That's Eric Correale. That's what my dad, like that's what they grew up with and what they did. That's what the Cowboys and Dak Prescott have been doing for 10 years now. But now it's kind of cool to see the guys that were the zone guys doing the duo gap fakes now. so that's literally what I'm charting I'm literally charting you know gap zone runs on play action and how often they're going out of gap schemes and they can still get to like the boot stuff if they're faking off duo like it's not like you can't get to that stuff just because you're not running outside zone you have to account for the edge defender now like it's naked you have to account for them in some yeah even and even the slices toward those guys which is exactly what happened on the Patriots play you're talking about even that's not enough like you have to actually account for that guy and how you're protecting.

25:09And I think more and more teams are learning that. All right, let's take our first quick break. And then I'm going to come back with my first one.

25:18This is very simple. It's not nearly as interesting as what you guys have said. Like if you, if you don't have like a really, really good front four pass rush, you are not going to win the Superbowl. So we're good. I said, defense alignment. Yes. And I know it's almost like a truism when it comes to, comes to professional football, but it is worth bringing back every year we do this. And I think the one small nuance to this one that it has been coming for a couple of years, but now I think we're kind of firmly there. I had a coach who I really respect and has a role in their team building process two years ago.

25:55Tell me, I believe with my whole soul that interior defensive linemen are more valuable than edge rushers. He's like, I believe it like wholeheartedly. Now, I think we're getting there when it comes to those guys and how they affect the game. And so if you look at these four teams specifically, just on a general level, according to next gen stats, the Broncos Rams and Seahawks all finished top six and pressure rate. The Patriots were 10th, but they were had a 41 % pressure rate with Milton Williams on the field. So when he was out there, they were better than 10th, but they're still all four teams finishing the top 10 and pressure rate.

26:31But then you take it one step further. And obviously some of these teams have really good edge rushers, right? Jared verse Nick Bonito, the Seahawks have 12 guys, whatever. But if you look at the interior players on these teams, I'm looking at the PFF pressure numbers right now. Top five. Number one, Zach Allen. Number two, Kobe Turner. Number three, Leonard Williams. Yep. Four, Jeffrey Simmons. Five, Chris Jones. Six, Christian Barmore. Seven, Byron Murphy. Nine, Milton Williams. So we have eight guys in the top 10 in total interior pressures played for the four teams that finished in the final four.

27:10And so if you you need to be able to create that with four guys. And now I think maybe more than any time I can remember since I started paying attention to this. Those guys need to be on the interior and just think about going back to last year. Milt Williams was a part of this discussion a year ago. Chris Jones, who was fifth on that list, is a part of that discussion a year ago. So now just having those guys where there just isn't that much you can do to take them out of the game and having them be a linchpin of what your team looks like. It just feels like we are we've come to a place and live in a world where that is a non-negotiable part of being one of these teams.

27:45It's around till the end. No, absolutely. I my point was this. I said defensive lineman. Yes. And I think we did one where I think we did. Robert, you and I did like kind of lessons of Super Bowl finalists or like what we like. the non-negotiables you need to win a Super Bowl. What does every Super Bowl winner have for like the last 10 years? And one was, you have to have a guy that can get five or more pressures for you. And that's always stood out to me. And I think it's still a truism. But now I think you need the Monstars out there. You need a motley crew out there, however you want to put it.

28:18I had my note, because I said defensive linemen, yes, is that it's not just pass rushers or edge rushers, I should say. Those are important, but you have to have a variety pack of defensive linemen. And you look, it's almost like, especially when it comes to playoff time. It's that ability to pivot. Like, okay, they're taking away this, they're taking away this, or this matchup we need to hunt. They have a guard that stinks. This guy is not good against speed. Pardon? Anthony Bradford? Yes. This is where it all comes from. Bradford, Will Campbell. It's, you know, a little bit speedy, bendy guys.

28:53And if you look, you mentioned, you said the 12 guys the Seahawks have. I think all these teams, Broncos, Allen, Roach, DJ Jones, John Franklin Myers, Nick Benito, Jonathan Cooper, Patriots, Milton, Barmore, Tonga, Chason, who's actually been on the team. Unbelievable. Chason, I thought, stunk a few years ago, and he's like good now. He's good now, apparently. Where did this dude come from? Yeah, I know. Seahawks, of course, there are guys. Murphy, Williams, Demarcus Lawrence, Nwosu, Derek Hall, Boy Moffey, Ramps, First, Young, Kobe Turner, Puna Ford, Braden Fisk. Why I'm bringing up all the names, not just to like show that I can look at our lads.

29:25It's more just to say, like, you can just throw any of these types of guys at you. One guy has to maul and hold up against the run because if you want to play a certain coverage shell, if we're doing all this rotation and we're doing all this, like, McDonald runs everything for the Seahawks defense. He can run everything on the back end because he has the front that can do what they need. Sometimes you need guys that can hold up blocks. Sometimes you need gap shooters. Sometimes we need to slant. Sometimes all these defenses, they drop guys into coverage. so you need athletic guys that can drop into coverage as well so it used to just be who can shoot the gaps and get upfield and now it's like a whole new world you need offensive lines are getting bigger so you need guys that can maul but you don't need the fat pluggers you need guys that actually can do a little something too we can move across the center's face so and also just speaking to edge rushers and just kind of like how offense has gotten so good with tight ends and moving them around and kind of mitigating maybe any blocking deficiencies really good at helping out tackles it's so much harder to help out a guard in the center it's so like you can slide you can everything but chip help you have to just it has to be so much more creative and if you have guys that can be valid and moving around a lot harder to account for that than just lining up before and going unless you're the freaking texans you know like the texans like can do it but they're the outlier i think to what more teams are doing now and having just a again a monsters that they can throw at offenses i love you bringing up the texans because i think this This is something I've had to kind of rewire my brain about.

30:52And I would caution fans of teams to think about it this way as well. Like if you're looking at what your team needs from a defensive line perspective in a given offseason, don't just look at like the first line of the depth chart. It's like, oh, we have two defensive tackles and two defensive ends. We're talking hockey lines now. Yes. And the Seahawks specifically, I think, are such a good indication of that because I crack jokes when it happened. But when they drafted like Byron Murphy in the first round and then signed to Marcus Lawrence this offseason, I was like, how many do you need? Right.

31:20How many do you need? And the answer is all of them. Yes. Puna Ford too, right? Like the Rams defensive line was the best thing they had last year. And then the second, and I'll get to that in a second. The second biggest thing they do in free agency is go sign Puna Ford immediately. And so this is very much an oceans 11. You think we need one more. You always need one more when it comes to defensive lines. Now you always need one more. And I think these teams specifically are very good reminders of that. do you think the Eagles influence matters here like you think teams saw what the Eagles did in the Super Bowl and we're like yeah we want eight we'd like four is not enough we need six we need except that is a classic Howie Roseman trope of like you know he's training for Robert Quinn at the deadline when they they have a stacked defensive line like that that felt like maybe you know other teams have had deep defensive lines before but it feels like the Eagles prioritizing that maybe a spread around the league a bit it's funny because I think the last year they actually stopped rotating them as much because that's a Fangio thing.

32:18And so it's like, it's kind of a weird, like intermediate step where the Eagles used to be like that. And then under Fangio, they actually rotated less and then they won the Superbowl. But I think this is more about just teams and their specific needs heading into the, in a given season, like Puna Ford is just the skillset the Rams needed. Right. And I think with each, yeah. And, and again, with the Seahawks, I think that they've just been so hell bent on trying to add as many different body types as they can like though what Lawrence and Wusu are versus, and I know it halls kind of calls very strong, but like my face specifically, like they're just such different types of players.

32:52And so to be able to have those four and be able to rotate them as much as you want to, like, I think it's just about options. And I also think, and I'm curious, like the, the amount of stunting we see from the really good defensive lines and like the different body types you need to fully unlock all of those things you want to do only increases the need to diversify the skill sets that you're adding to the room. And so I think that plays into it too. Yeah. If this were just my like clean point, I was going to open and say, like, I think everyone can take advice from Wu-Tang Financial and diversify their bonds.

33:24And it's kind of just the same exact thing. They diversify. Can't say the full quote, but they can diversify their full defensive personnel. But I think it's just as we talk about defenses, defenses, they can tee off on you. Offenses too. Like, look what happened to DeForey and Irons defense. Oh, Huff's on the field? All right, running right at you. So, and like, that's why I think you, yeah, in a situation, Huff is useful. Once you get the playoff time against AKA the best teams with, in theory, the best coaches, they're going to find that weakness and just pound away at it. And that's what's so cool about some of these guys go, oh, you got that?

34:00All right, here's Demarcus Lawrence that's going to just tee off on you on fourth down. There's a reason he might've been a healthy scratch during the postseason last year. You're right. It's so funny that we used to think about that with offensive linemen, right? Where we used to be like offensive linemen, you could weaponize against one guy. And now it feels like we're at a place where defensive linemen are in the same boat, where if you've got that one guy they can pick on, it's just going to be a problem. And so you need to make sure you don't have that one guy. And I've never really thought about it that way, but clearly we've gotten to that place.

34:28Yeah, and if you think about the crustiest old school thing of, oh, the offensive linemen, there's no continuity, they're too young, they don't get training. If you believe that, okay, great. The way to attack them is to give them every possible look, force them to communicate, force them to pass stuff off, force them to deal with every twist, every slant, every stunt you can get. And you see, you know, I'm thinking about some of the weaker offensive, I'm only Dylan Parham, Jonah Sabanay in Miami, like guys, young guys who struggled in pass pro, like every week when I'd watch all the pressures on the sacks, you would see them getting hit on twist.

35:02You'd see them getting hit on stunts. And that is like, if you believe that as a coach, That is the thing, that is like the table stakes for being a good defensive coach. It's just having every way possible to attack those guys. Watch what the Bears did to McClendon at right tackle, who actually was fine, but they went, this is the guy we're getting. You can tell the Bears coaches, well, we're going to bring these saw pressures, you know, all the safety, the DB stuff. But they're like, that's the guy we're getting. And they gamed him up. Yeah, again, when you get these, it's so cool when you see it play out exactly probably how they intended.

35:34going and the mean way is they say who's the fish and that's what these defensive coaches do and they go oh there's the fish all right we're gonna just i wait until we watch the seahawks right guard next week i think there's gonna be so much movement on that right side of like from the patriots front but like that's exactly what these coaches do it's yeah again cool to see play out the pay the bears are such a great example here though and like how it's not when you don't have enough because dennis allen threw just a almost perfect game at the rams in that game but when you have to go back to it too often, eventually they're going to get there.

36:07And so you can have this great specific bespoke defensive game plan where you're bringing all these pressures. But when you get to a place where you can't do it with four, eventually a good offense is going to beat you. And so I think that's where the little gaps are. All right, Barnwell, what's your next one here? Ooh, okay. I have a very big picture one. It might not come together well. In my head it makes sense i'll let you guys decide if that is the case um so i think sort of like if i'm having a really broad picture like meta this is what smart teams in the nfl are doing versus teams who are less smart it's not new but i think they're focusing on it more than in years past i think you're seeing teams really drill down on trying to reduce the complexity of the opposing team's playbook try to take as much out of it as possible try to drill down to the stuff that they can predict that is more reliable, where there's a smaller amount of things teams can get to, and then taking advantage of that.

37:04And so that happens on both sides of the football. On defense, you know, I think the thing you see it with as an example are some pressures, right? Like presenting certain looks that you know teams are going to have only a couple of protections for. It's only so many things you can do for, you know, whenever we look at the snap and then knowing, okay, if we're getting a full slide in the situation 90 % of the time, we're going to have a call that's going to take advantage of a full slide. on offense. And I think this is the one that leans more into a 2025 thing or maybe more of a focus on 2025 thing.

37:35It's okay. What can we do to get teams out of exotics? What can we do to get teams out of all of the things they want to throw at us that we can't possibly do? What can we do to eliminate and reduce the number of things the defense can do? And so that can happen in a lot of different ways. You can do that with motion, although I don't think it's unimportant. You can do it with personnel. And the Rams 13 is a great example because there's only so many things you can do to deal with 13th personnel. I think 6th offensive lineman is kind of the same thing. So when I said earlier, you know, like 6ol, 13th personnel, like there's differences, but it's still that idea of, okay, you're not dealing with this on a regular basis.

38:08You can only run certain things. It's going to eliminate or limit what you can do defensively in terms of your personnel, in terms of what you can call, how you can fit the run. But then the things that came to mind for me this year, two things. Number one, formation into boundary, which Mays, when I was predicting I think what I was going to say before the show, call that one out, which seems impossible to me. But the idea that you can have, you know, that you're putting the strong side of your offense into the boundary as opposed to the field, so less space to work with, you're limiting the hunts of play.

38:39There's just not as many calls for that stuff. You're asking defenses to communicate in a small slot, but you're asking them to deal with four strong concepts. You're asking them to deal with, you know, fast to the flat stuff, screens. There's opportunities for picks and rubs. Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots, all in the top 10 in FIB this year. Seahawks number two. The other one, nub tight end, kind of the same idea of, you know, what can we do to account for this? We're overloading a side of the field. How are you, Justin? Are you changing your front? Are you giving us good run looks? We want to run outside.

39:10All four teams in the top 12 in nub tight end. You should Seahawks two, Broncos seven, Patriots eight, Rams 12. There's a lot of different ways you can do this. These are not just like perfect examples, but just this idea of there's so many things we can possibly see on a weekly basis. what can we do to eliminate as many of those as possible get the most predictable response we can and then take advantage of that predictable response yeah no it's yeah coverage checks is the that's the that's the golden thread you're trying to pull as a coach like or as far as an offensive coach is if I do this what Shanahan's so good at if I shift like this get into this formation they don't bump they don't do this but like if I can go like empty might be the best way I can put this if I go into empty and I know that you're only getting to two things as opposed to, like, this is how you used to be able to get Fangio was you go into empty, especially if you go in base personnel like 12, 21 or something, go empty quarters.

40:04You know, like I know what I'm getting every single time and they don't have the personnel to like make that tough. Like, yeah, if you have Cooper DeGene sawing guys off in a slot, but if the year before that, oh man, who'd they fire? They brought in Patricia, but the year before that, Sean Desai. Thank you, Sean Desai, a net blast from the past. But no, it was when they were running that coverage, same exact thing. They didn't have the horses. So it was like, anybody that played the Eagles that year, empty. Because it was just so predictable. This was how you used to be able to get spags, was to make him more simplistic.

40:37All these teams have so many creepers and simulated looks. It's like you're playing Rex Ryan every freaking week now. That this is, you have to, so just dovetailing off what you're saying, Barnwell. Yeah, I think that's what, that's the goal. Like, that's what you're trying to find every single week. And I think teams are getting better at that. I'm just talking about the offensive side, but yeah, defensively, you can do that as well, too. But offensively, that is something you really see teams trying to do more and more. The one-by-three nub stuff is definitely see that. God, I just—the Patriots did it a couple weeks ago against the Texans.

41:08The Broncos do a ton of it. The Seahawks do a ton of it. I mean, it's just— Rams have done it a ton. Like, that was the—you brought up their first Super Bowl run with Stafford. That was what they did every play. It was empty one-by-three. Tyler Higby was the lone receiver, like, all the time. Yeah. And Seattle is such a good example of this. Like you think about, all right, we want to be in very specific things to make you very specific. The Seahawks, when you get the percentages of their dropbacks into base defense this year, I believe it was the highest in the league or it was definitely up there.

41:35The only reason it wasn't the highest number of total base dropbacks is because they didn't throw the ball very often. But then the Seahawks use a ton of empty. Like one of my favorite play calls of the entire game against the Rams, they come out in 21 personnel and go out and get into empty. And so the Seahawks were very good at this, where they were like, we're going to make you just live in very specific buckets offensively. And it's why I just am so impressed with the job that Clint Kubiak did all year, where it's a combination of play calling feel, but also just having a really, really good sense of how we're dictating the game to opposing offenses.

42:05And then their defense or defenses and then their defense refuses to be dictated to. There's like nothing you can do to make us do what we don't want to do. And then you flip it back to our prior point, though. like how do you counter that if teams are getting you out of all the exotics and sometimes you want to run have a bunch of shit kickers up front like that is the solution you cannot you're not going to be able to get the seahawks to check out of having a bunch of dudes up front that you can't block like that that is inevitably the solution which brings it back to the oldest thing of hey control the line of scrimmage and you win games which you don't need to hear if you're listening to this podcast but it's at the end of the day that's still it's true it still is true i know and that's also the fallacy i i think you know obviously robert where you and i talked about Brandon Saley until we're blue in the face, but that was the downfall of that defense in L.A.

42:51was they never once invested in the spine. And that might have been Tom Telesco's issue. It might have been State. Like, whoever it was, that was the Achilles heel of that whole regime. They didn't know what made their defense, which is you have to have ass kickers up front to hold everything down. If you're going to be in quarters every time, good quarterbacks are going to figure it out. Good coaches are going to figure it out. You know what's frustrating? To know exactly what the defense is in, and you still can't beat it because your whole line can't block it or your guys can't win down the field.

43:19So that always sticks with me because then I watch the Seahawks. I'm like, oh, my God, look at these light boxes. Just run dual on them. And there's Leonard Williams teeing off on a guy, Demarcus Lawrence suplexing a guy, and I'm like, oh, yeah, okay. All right, yeah, I guess you got to trick him up a little bit. But it's so funny to me because you look at the first half of last season for Seattle. They wanted to live this way, and they were getting gashed just over and over and over again. And then the two biggest differences, the two biggest differences between that version of the Seahawks in the first half of last year in this version is they trade for Ernest Jones and Byron Murphy is a very different player now than he was last season.

43:57And so his ability to hold up in those looks, you talk about transforming the spine of the defense. They did that. Those two moves transform with the spine of the defense feels like for Seattle. And that's why they're allowed to live this way. All right, Nate, what's your next one? Oh man, I have two. I will go with this one. Special teams. Don't forget about it. I know that you are, you know, as a Bears fan, you're all about the four phases. Robert, you know, the fourth phase is the fans, right, in Chicago? I don't know if they've done away with that. I get shit on our show. Dave always gives me shit for not wanting to talk about special teams.

44:33Maybe it's because I'm scarred from having special teams be too important in my life at one point. It was the highlight of a Bears game for a long time. Exactly. I will say my couple of years as being a Bears fan, it was very fun to go to a game and have the entire stadium stand up for a punt return. And they played, oh my God, now I'm freaking out. Oh God, now I know the song. I'll think of it in a second. But they would play a song before and it would really get everyone amped up. Well, they did Soldier Boy a little bit too. But we got Schooler for the Patriots. Unbelievable as a gunner. Seven tackles as a gunner.

45:03I just love that we're getting to punt gunners on this show. I shouldn't be surprised whatsoever. It was inevitable. We're in the fifth iteration. I got to turn over every stone. This one, it's going to be special teams. This is actually my point number one. This is the first thing I put down last night. I was like, all right, going on TAFS. All right, all right, what's one? All right, we'll knock everyone's socks off. Special teams. All right, but the Seahawks have a guy, Pritchett, 34 times this year, he hit 20 miles an hour or more. And the Seahawks special teams, I think, is obviously one of the best units we've seen this year.

45:34But it's a key component to their success. It's classic. I mean, we just joked about the Bears teams, but it's classic amazing defense, amazing special teams. That's how you can survive Sam Darnold having his bad moments. That's how you can survive having a center botch a snap. Kenneth Walker may be doing something wrong. Like, that's how you can survive that is by the other two phases winning. And I know where this whole show is almost like the old coaches were right kind of thing. But it's like it kind of is funny how it just football is football. Like the DVOA ranks don't really bear this out.

46:06but Seahawks were second, but the other teams were kind of middling, mostly off of kicks and stuff. But punt returns, Seahawks were, or Patriots were first in punt return EPA. Seahawks were third, Broncos eighth, Rams 23rd, but the Rams don't count. Yeah, the Rams are not involved in this. But kind of showed up, didn't they? They're the exception that proves the rule. Exactly. You need to be good at special teams, yes. You can't just wave it away. A year and a half ago, or two years ago now, the Rams finished the draft and they didn't have a long snapper, kicker or punter on their roster. And I was like, this is going to cost them.

46:39It's a mean kick through fantasy football drafts. And no linebackers either. At least that doesn't show up at all. But yards per punt return, including the playoffs. Seahawks are second, Patriots third, Broncos seventh, Patriots 28, or Rams 23rd. Kickoff return EPA, Seahawks third, Rams seventh, Patriots 10th, Broncos 21st. The Seahawks rank first in opponent average field position after their kickoffs, and they rank third in their own starting field position after their own kickoff return. And again, this is hidden yardage. The Seahawks had five special teams touchdowns this year, including the playoffs.

47:10Patriots had three. Those are two Super Bowl teams. I could just leave it at that. But it's just definitely felt it a lot more this year. And I know the kickoff rules have changed. I think returners are becoming, they get prioritized just a little bit more. I remember talking with Dane about this a year or two ago. But they become a little bit more. And actually, I think punters have become a little bit more valuable to me. And just the sense that, yeah, they might be punting for midfield a little bit more, but coffin corners matter again, as far as just booming it. Weather, and I know more teams are going to be in a dome in about five, 10 years where it's like going to be like 28 teams in a dome.

47:46So maybe not as much, but I was just, that Broncos Patriots game just stood out to me so much. It was like, we think about quarterback arms cut through this wind and cut through all that. What about the kickers and punters and games like this, this matters just as much. So I don't know. It just, I think my point, I think my overarching point would be don't ignore it and how much it can turn into a weapon in a wide open playoffs and a wide open NFC or AFC wide open season, don't ignore a phase that can win you the game. And I think the teams that didn't, you can feel them kind of like, oh, they just popped this.

48:17Now they're in midfield and scoring position, yada, yada. Yeah. The only reason that the Broncos had a chance of scoring in the second half of that game is because Blake Berenger had a couple of really bad punts. He got them in true range. It was an opportunity where the Patriots second team was not very good. And that had elite return man on my list. I mean, the Seahawks get Rashid Shahid. He was so good. Marcus Jones for the Patriots, phenomenal. Marvin Mims over the last couple of years, maybe the best return guy in football over that two-year span. And for the Rams, just have an ellipsis and said, wish you had one of those guys, don't you?

48:49Right. And I think, you know, this is a league where scoring this down from where it was five years ago. Number of plays are down from where they were five years ago. Field position after kickoffs has improved from where it was five, 10 years ago. So having the ability to get either a touchdown or, again, an explosive play that in itself puts you in field goal range or flips field position matters. Then for punters, given that you can get the ball at the 35 now, the average distance after getting the ball back is on the 30-yard line. Your only chance of stopping the opposing team and having them start deep inside their own 10-yard line now is on a punt or by failing on fourth down.

49:28like you're not going to get the you know touchback to the 20 you're not going to get um you know kick return to the 22 and then a holding penalty like it happens occasionally but that's really rare and so um that's the only time you're going to get that opportunity to do that and so this is really where i think your position it it like it matters less in the traditional ways but it does matter in a different way now maybe than it did 20 30 years ago yeah that maybe yeah that's kind of way i kind of looked at it too think of it in first downs like if you get a guy 15 yards shorter or closer or further away that's another we just talked about explosives that's one more explosive they have to get it or that's three more successful plays they have to get like you start thinking in first downs then i'm like oh my god 22 yards that's two first downs they don't have to get now or they do have to get now and those it's funny because i think some people would be like well how does that play into teams going for it more and for it down well it's you have to weigh how many more first downs you need but also the possessions both things can be true at the same time like it still is a game of possessions but the difference in field position does matter.

50:28The possessions matter more, but the field position also is important. And so Barnwell, you, you saying the scoring is down, possessions are down, plays are down. That brings me to kind of my next one here. Who is defense back? Do, do we have to reconsider what this group usually looks like? And I'll, I'll come from my own perspective on this. I my worldview when it comes to how I think NFL teams should operate is dictated in part by what the makeup of the final four teams has looked like since I started covering the NFL. If you go back to like 20, I've always done it since 2014 or 2015. I think it was because of the first time I did the exercise.

51:12It was 10 years. But if you go back to like 2015, the only team in the final four that did not finish top 10 in EPA per play on offense was the 2015 Broncos. That was it. Every other team that played in the championship games was a top 10 offense by EPA per play in that given season. This year, the Seahawks were 13th and the Broncos were 10th. And if you look at some other metrics, the Broncos were 15th in offensive DVOA. The Seahawks were 14th in weighted offensive DVOA. One year is not a trend, right? There is a chance that this was just kind of a strange season. and that over time, prioritizing your offense will still be the way to make sure that you are a championship caliber team.

51:56And that's always what I've believed. It's why I believe in offensive-minded head coaches. It's why I'd always go that way because I think if I had to choose, I would always try to make sure I had the fifth best offense in the league every single year. We'll figure the rest out. Are we in a place where defenses have caught back up to offenses enough that it might be time to reconsider or whether that is a non-negotiable thing or is the gap between the importance of offense and the important defense started to shrink a little bit? I don't know, but to me, it's a question worth asking. A line that you use that I always like is, who holds the pen last?

52:31And I feel like more defenses are holding that pen last than offenses right now. Not saying everybody. I would say maybe if we're looking at when offenses were just crushing it because everyone was trying to run man coverage at cover three 10 years ago, eight years ago, I thought, you know, majority of the offenses were taking it to most of the defensive coordinators. Like I would say like 22 of the offenses and there's maybe 10 defensive coordinators that were worth their weight. I would say now it's almost flipped. And I think we hit a, you know, McVay's McVay and Shanahan's Shanahan. But as far as like the auxiliary guys for maybe that tree, like maybe they've hit a ceiling with what they can get away with until, and I think there's a rare hit of a ceiling and we're going to see some innovation.

53:13I already seen a little bit right now as far as, but it's kind of the innovation is going old school. You know, I think the Bears are the best example of that with Ben Johnson and everything. And I think you see more Sean Payton, I call Sean Payton offenses, but more of that at you offense and play action game where we see a little bit more of that becoming in vogue. So I wouldn't say it's like, I say defenses have an advantage right now. I say defenses, we talked about defensive lines. They're ahead of offensive lines league wide. There's more of them. There's more pass catchers. DBs are the best they've ever been.

53:43The linebackers are the fastest they've ever been. And I think coordinators are so much more creative on defense. I just made the joke a little bit earlier that it's like going against Rex Ryan every week. And that's because I'm just – it used to just be like, all right, Dick LeBeau and Rex Ryan. And the other guys, you kind of know, which again, you know, quarters, cover two, cover three. Now it's like 26 teams are running all these funky blitzes on first down and simulators and creepers and stuff. So I will say that there's more maybe defensive innovation that's caught up than where we're at with offense.

54:15But having said all that, I kind of – I'm seeing some things with offenses. And what do offenses do? They copy. It's a copycat league. So they're going to watch the Bears. They're going to watch the Rams. So I think we're going to see more of this kind of maybe trickle out a little bit. They always catch up. The team always catches. They always catch up. Some side always catches up. Well, the league will just give the offense the advantage by changing the rules if the defense gets too strong. Maybe that's it. I'll just rely on legislation. Get Bill Pullian on the line. He's doing nothing right now, right?

54:42Bill Pullian is not 100 % sure that he wanted to change the offensive rules. Because I feel like you will throw cold water on this for me. Yeah. I'll throw a little bit of cold water on it. Because I'm ready for you to. Because, again, it shakes my principles to my core to consider this as an option. But I think that this year specifically, it's made me want to go back and be like, all right, let's actually think about how true this is. So where do you land on this? Something very funny about the lifelong Bears fan being like, maybe that's why. Maybe. Maybe I don't want this offense. I want my defense back.

55:18You get your first good offense in 30 years, and you're like, I don't know. Shootouts? Yucky. I think it's probably why I prioritize the offense as much as I have because it's like I know how hard it is to live the other way. That's one thing where, again, over the last 10-ish years, I think really since the McVay version of the NFL came to be you, Nate, you guys know this. I, that is one of been one of my, like, I am unwavering in this. If I'm hiring a head coach, he is going to be in my offensive play car. That is going to happen. I'm not, I am not getting off that and watching what Mike McDonald has done.

55:54And the fact that we have two defensive minded head coaches in the Super Bowl for the first time in like 10 years, I think I would be not doing my like due diligence at this job. if I didn't at least question whether holding steadfast to that previous opinion is the right way to approach it. So two things. And these don't refute your point, but I just think they're reasonable counters to what you're saying. Number one, we've lived in an era for 25 years where it's pretty much either been a Tom Brady-led team or a Patrick Mahomes-led team in the Super Bowl. And so those two teams are primarily offensive-driven.

56:28It doesn't mean that you can't win otherwise, but just those two teams have been so dominant and so good on one side of the football. Not that the Chiefs haven't had good defense, not that the Patriots haven't had good defenses they have at times, but just this idea of, well, you can either have the best quarterback of his generation or you can do something else. And if you are going to do something else, and this is one of the years where something else has been able to get all the way up to the top, maybe it's easier to have a good defense than find almost a generational quarterback. But the other thing I would say is I want to see how teams react to this during the offseason.

57:01Because last year, the Eagles were, I think, 31st or 32nd in cash spending on the defensive side of the football. They drafted a ton of guys and felt good about them, but they did not invest a ton in defense at all. I think their highest paid defensive player might have been James Bradbury, who did not play a single snap for them all season. This year, the Rams, or sorry, Patriots and Broncos are two of, I think, the five highest teams in the league in terms of cash spending on the defensive side of the football. They spent Patriots obviously a ton in free agency. Broncos signed a bunch of guys to extensions.

57:29They signed Sertan. They signed Benito. They signed Franklin Myers. They signed Allen. But they have a ton of dudes they feel good about on the defensive side of the football. They brought in Greenlaw, brought in Kufanga as well, paid a premium to bring those guys in. Rams were 32nd in defensive spending. And you could argue, hey, came back to bite them, you know, in terms of cornerbacks got pretty iffy by the end there. Linebackers were stretchable, shall we say, in coverage. and maybe not the best tackling linebacker I've ever seen in my life. But, you know, I think there's this thing of... You're almost like...

58:00I don't want to be mean. It's almost like this question of, are you min-maxing it? Like, are you sort of seeing, like, okay, we believe in defense, but we think our best way to get that is just to draft a ton of guys on that side of the football and just invest everything in our offense the way the Rams do, the way the Eagles do. Or I think you can flip it. I think you're seeing this idea of teams being more aggressively willing to throw a lot of their financial resources into one side of the football and draft on the other side of the football. Bengals, maybe, when Burrow Chase saying he's run rookie deals, maybe a good example of that as well.

58:35But I think at the very least what we can say is there's not a clear path this year. You can't sit here and say, well, if you don't have a quarterback, you are screwed. The San Darnold Super Bowl appearance changes things, I think, from that perspective. So I do think there's some truth to it. I think that's right. And I think for me, the way that I would have approached the McDonald situation a couple years ago was I would have said, well, of course, there are going to be exceptions, right? There's always going to be a defensive coach who's that good. That's just the nature of how it's going to go.

59:05He's exceptional. But is he maybe less exceptional as the league changes? And is he something you can actually chase as an archetype with some credibility and have that be a viable path forward? I don't know, because at the end of the day, my stance has always been you need the offense because at some point in the playoffs, you're going to need to score 35 points. And guess what? The Seahawks needed to do that. They needed to score 30 in order to get there. So I still do think that if I had to choose, that's the one I would choose. But it's up for debate more now based on how the season has gone than it has been, in my opinion, at any time over the last 10 years.

59:43And one of the notes I had in here, Brian, well, it's funny that you say that. quarterback play and what you need from the quarterback. It changes in this version of the equation and it changes where you can seek that quarterback out. And you look at the teams that are in the Superbowl right now, the teams that were in the final four, they got their quarterbacks in very different ways. You know, you have the most expensive quarterback in the league against the cap this year was Matthew Stafford. You have the least expensive quarterback room in the league this year was the Patriots. you have a mid-tier quarterback contract of the likes of which we almost never ever see but in my opinion is cheat code is strong it is your favorite thing in the world you love the middle class quarterback contract that has been like one of your favorite thing i mean i'm not i'm not making fun of you it's never existed and it's always been a thing to you yeah now that we've had we had two years in a row where the the bucks last year and the seahawks this year paying Sam Darnold$33 million a year when every other quarterback is making$55 million a year and having him perform better than a lot of those better or as good as those$55 million quarterbacks.

1:00:50It's massively valuable. And so the fact that we've had all of these different kinds of quarterback contracts play into the way that the final four looks in part because the team constructions and the strengths of the teams are different than they often look. I think that's a fun little wrinkle to it. The quarterback does play into that exact conversation. Yeah, this was, you asked me about the suplex stuff, and that's what I've kind of reconfigured in my thinking, too. It's not that you have to be the best of the best. You just have to have, you have to just be legit enough. Like, as far as running the ball, as far as explosive passes, doesn't mean you have to have Josh Allen just to win this game, but can your offense generate explosives when you need to?

1:01:28Like, that's kind of how I just viewed it. Do you just pass that threshold? And that's kind of like how, So again, even defensively too, as far as pressures and all that, but anyways, but as far as offense, that's kind of just what I've kind of keep, I've kind of reconfigured how I view it. It's not that you have to have the best and be ranked first or second or third. It's just like, oh yeah, they're 12th, but oh, they're above the mark. Okay, okay, it's valid. And yeah, kind of, and again - Seattle's offense is a very good indication of that. Like they're very explosive, but overall they are the, they clear the bar offense in this group.

1:01:57That was why I was bullish on this season, going into season. I'm like, all right, I think this defense can be top five, pretty like put it in a top five. I don't think it's gonna be the best run game, but I think they're gonna be at least average where it's gonna hit that mark, what I say, 40 % in the second half of the year they did. And then I think the just a Kubiak-Shanahan offense, they generate explosive passes like, you know, like it's candy. Like, you know, they can do that. That's part of their offense. Did I say they can make a Super Bowl run? I never made that prediction, but I did say, I was like, hey, I think they're gonna make the playoffs and maybe they can win the division because they have a formula that wins games.

1:02:30it's not the best but they can pass those thresholds so yeah and even just talking about defense you're talking about just who makes the finals and everything you're talking about the offense being top 10 I looked this up a few weeks ago but it was I don't think there's been a final four team since 2013 that hasn't had that they've all had a positive or they've held offenses to a negative EPA maybe that's the best way I can frame that they've all passed the threshold of just having enough on defense I think it's every single one every single final four There's no exceptions that have all been zero because it says defensive EPA and true media.

1:03:06So that's why I'm trying to reconfigure this in my brain. But held offenses to negative EPA. So that's always just something just past the threshold as opposed to being the best of the best. And that's the funny thing is, I think that's how I always used to think about it, where the offense, it's not. I don't want the offense to have to pass the threshold. I want the offense way, way above the threshold. Can I get the defense past the threshold? Are we seeing a world where maybe that flips? and I'm still not there yet. Like, again, it's been one season where we've lived here and it's been a strange season, but this is the type of year where I'm like, huh, all right, let's see where this goes from here.

1:03:42Yeah, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'll just, I'll be intrigued to see. If that's true, we should see teams investing a ton of money this off season on defensive linemen, on dudes who can kick ass up front. Like, I know the Patriots paid so much for Milton Williams last year that we were like, you know, he's a good player, but there's no way he's ever going to be worth that contract. If Milton Williams was a free agent this year, he would get significantly more. He would get 30 plus million a year. Yeah. By the way, I hope I'm wrong because it's the first time my team has had a good offense in my entire life.

1:04:14And so I really hope the offensive centric model is the right way to go. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back with a couple more of these.

1:04:23Barwell, I think you're next. What's your next one? uh unfortunately like eight of mine got folded into other discussions that's okay that's this is a free-flowing conversation one i don't know if we can use that term um one uh one uh one i have and this is inspired by your colleague and i think all of our friend ted win this idea of you need to have a good nickel and i think like that being more of a priority for teams and maybe you know even you're starting off ball linebackers and you think about these teams they have very different kinds of nickels, but they're all playing at a high level.

1:04:58You think about the bigger guys, Nick Emanwari, Quinton Lake, that idea that, okay, if we're going to live in our sub packages, if we're never going to play base, we don't want to ever play base if we don't have to. Having a dude who is big enough, you know, in the alley, big enough as our overhang defender, still good enough in coverage that he can survive. This idea of, you know, we don't have to worry about getting outmatched by teams who want to play 12. We do want to play with bigger bodies. We want to put a 6-1-1 assignment on the field. We have the ability to counteract that by having nickels we feel good about.

1:05:30Then you flip it, J. Cole McMillan, Marcus Jones, really good players in totally different ways. Smaller players, better in coverage. But this idea of we can have you cover all those attempts to run away over the middle of the field. We can have you cover all the sales we're going to see. You have good instincts for dealing with the dinks when you're in zone. just sort of feels like this is not a new thing. Like it's been a trend for a long time now, this idea that like we have to value that position. But I wonder if it's becoming even a prerequisite to be in a league defense at this point. Eamon Wari feels like a tipping point to me.

1:06:04Like I think you could have said Kyle Hamilton's enough of a unicorn where if you're seeking out Kyle Hamilton, is that, are you going to come up empty more times than not? Right. Eamon Wari doing what he did this year. And obviously he's a physical freak in his own right. Like I understand that there aren't a lot of Nicky Manoir is walking the planet, but I think now the fact that we have two and Derwin James is kind of doing a little bit of that for the Chargers. Like I do feel like now this thing of like, can we find our 220 pound nickel defender that allows us to play nickel to everything?

1:06:34I'd be shocked if we didn't see three to five dice rolls on that exact idea this offseason from teams that are trying to find their version of it. I'd be surprised. This feels like the moment where it changes. And it changes safety value because if you have a guy that, like, is a guy that can play the slot too, you're just a hybrid player now. Like, as far as, again, what used to be, like, oh, three safety looks, aha, big nickel. It's like, no, that's base now. And you think the guy that always comes to my mind because I think he's such a good blitzer is Kyler Gordon for the Bears, who had an up and down year, faces injuries, all that stuff.

1:07:10When healthy, a very good slot player and a very good blitzer. and how like Dennis Allen has used them, how Iberflus used them, was they are doing what used to be a three, four common pressure, which is you rush the three defensive linemen, drop one outside linebacker and the other opposite. I think of James Harrison back in the day with the Steelers. Now it's just the slot is the pressure guy. So you're running a creeper rushing forward, but the slot is the outside linebacker now. But then the slot has to run the coverage. He has to blitz. He has to fill the run because that's the gap on an open side.

1:07:42and it became like I was just even looking at the divisional round teams like Teron Johnson was one of these guys but now you see Teron Johnson he kind of became a weakness for the Bills this year I mean there's so much for the Bills that you could just dice apart I know but it's just with him they were trying to okay we get into base and everything but then they kind of got the worst of both worlds was Johnson's not big enough to do all the dynamic things that we want him to do and then our linebackers aren't that so they kind of and that was something I got on Bean about, Brandon Bean, was like, how did you not have a succession plan?

1:08:12You guys have lived a nickel for 95 % of the time in the last five years, and you never had drafted a backup guy that could maybe take over the 180-pounder. Anyways. That now is almost 30. Yeah. And like, how did you not? I don't know. Yeah. But Texans, Jalen Petrie, full-on weapon. Yes. Full weapon. And also just think, bubbles, flats, all the screen stuff every team does. That's an extension of the run game, that guy's the guy that's the point of the attack. The swing screens. The swing screens that everyone's running. Those guys have to be so dynamic now. You can't just be a coverage guy. You are an all-rounder.

1:08:49And if you're not, teams are going to get after you. The 49ers have an interesting rookie, Upton Stout, who had some nice moments there. And even, I already mentioned the Bears with Coward Gordon. When he's healthy, he was that. So it is something, it's just become, it's such a point of attack player now. when it used to just be, you're on third down and you have to play man coverage against the tiny slot guy. Now you have to guard a tight end. You have to guard a receiver. You have to guard a running back. You have to blitz. You have to just be, and that's why it feels like the best players play there because they are the best football players.

1:09:22You know, like that is, might as well put them there. But a guy like I mean, I worry the fact that his, he was a deep safety at South Carolina and was slow to react to stuff, a big, long athlete. And you're like, okay, if you get him to the right spot. But I was like, is he a box player? Like, I don't know. he's not super physical get him in space but also not make him do so much of the deep safety stuff but he can react quicker now because he's closer to the ball and that opened my mind okay i was getting coached by mike mcdonald helps but it just has opened my mind to you can get more projecty types or get guys that you might not think are going to be starters for you might be an interesting deep safety and now you can weaponize them and get your best five out there as far as dbs wise so yeah this is why i love cooper de jean when he was coming out because i was like this guy is a best five enabler.

1:10:05He can line up wherever and get your best five. Okay, you have other guys that can play outside corner, Quiniel Mitchell and stuff? All right, put him in a slot and turn him into a weapon and just knock everything out. So I, yeah, it's not going away. It's only getting more and more important. Colleges are the same way. There's tons of these prospects coming up that have experience doing exactly what they're going to do in the NFL. It's not going away. This is the thing now. What I like though, and I think what Mike did so well with Emanwari specifically, and I think he learned his lesson from the Kyle Hamilton thing.

1:10:34When you watch those early struggles of the 2022 Ravens defense, Kyle Hamilton's on the back end and you think about that Dolphins game and you think about all those excuses. He's on his horse trying to catch Tyree from 30 yards away. Kyle Hamilton is one of the best players in professional football. He is an incredible football player. That, I think that experience early on, I'm guessing here, I think that experience early on may have influenced the way he thinks about the scope you're giving to a player like that early in his career, where when he had Kyle Hamilton on the back end and they're doing a little bit of everything, that guy's swimming a little bit.

1:11:11And the downside of a young player learning as a deep safety is significantly lower than the downside of a young player learning as a nickel. And so if you look at the, cause I think that's what people are thinking. Well, will he play in this spot, in that spot? Nope. He is a nickel and box player. That is what he is this year. And by limiting that they were successful. Cooper Jean, just a nickel player as a rookie Derwin James. Even, I think one of the smartest things that Jesse Minter did was shrinking the menu for Derwin James after the buy, he played more safety this year, but for the most part, he was a nickel and box player.

1:11:46And that's exactly what the Seahawks did. And I think that is going to be something that continues where it's like, we don't need him to play five different things. If he plays one thing well, that's just as valuable. And I think we're trending more and more toward that direction. All right, Nate, what's your last one here? Kind of nice little tie in. This was the fourth one. I kind of was like, man, I feel like I need a little bit more philosophical here, you know, as I talk about special teams and why tight ends and how I kind of got it was my like one-liner for this is we're at a new level of aggression in the NFL.

1:12:17And not only talk about fourth down play calling, I'm talking about owners and team decision makers. I'm talking about just right a crossroads in the week. And I know we felt that this year, how wide open the NFL felt. I'm talking about quarterbacks, that we got a new crop kind of growing up in front of us, which has led to so much discourse that I'm so ready to unplug from completely until I have to write an article about it. Oh my God. But if you just look at how these teams got here, just these four, the Patriots fired Gerard Mayo after one year, hired Vrabel. Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett after one year, traded for Sean Payton.

1:12:52Now, first rounder gave him a shit ton of money, cut Russell Wilson, took on the dead cap, and just said, we got it. And they made it to the playoffs two years in a row. Rams went all in, won the Super Bowl, traded for all these guys, totally tore the team down. There's Stafford and the Funky Bunch. Revamped their whole team with a cheap rookie contract. And then they made the playoffs immediately. Immediately. Revamped their whole offense. That's why, again, McVay deserves every ounce of praise that we throw at him. because like it's the most fascinating thing. Every year I'm giddy to watch what the Rams do because I'm like, what do you got this time?

1:13:26What do we got this year around? Like it's in heavyweights. It's a football test kitchen. I mean, like that's what it is. It's the best. That's what it is. I know it's obnoxious for neutral fans, but it's so fun. I don't give a shit. It's heavy. It's the movie Heavyweights. It's like last year they got jet skis and the year before they got the blob. This year we got 40 % 13 personnel. Yeah, 13 % this year. One time last year. Oh yeah. And we just talked about the 2021 Rams were empty like half the time. It was insane what they were doing. Still the most empty dropbacks of any team in the next-gen era was the 2021 Rams.

1:13:58It was fascinating to me because you could see teams were getting so frustrated against that. But the Seahawks fired their longtime coach, a legend, traded away their starting quarterback, signed Sam Darnold. Everyone's laughing at that. And here they are. And on top of it, Patriots spent the most money in free agency. Seahawks spent the fourth most in free agency this year. ownership firing coaches left and right we had 10 new coaches this year just a couple years ago we had 10 new coaches and that's because that whole vc money coming in they're just like hey this actually isn't so bad maybe the soccer 50 million the soccer owners were on to something here let's just fire these guys let's get this going let's get a new let's get a whole new staff here this isn't so bad mark davis the broke the brokest team in the nfl has like three head coaches they're paying right now because they sold so much vc money um rights and streaming rights like we're entering a whole new world.

1:14:48Like, we're about to get 18 games. I don't care how much players want to complain about everything. We're getting that. And that's going to change scheduling. That's going to change. We're in so much new stuff here. That might change roster construction as far as how many players teams can have. That might be the changeup on all of it. Coaching turnover, like I said, too, but also the ramifications of firing 10 head coaches a few years ago, 10 head coaches this year. The well is tapped. And the NFL is very insular. Yeah, we can say it's the good old boys network. It is. But everybody wants a Shanahan guy for years and years and years.

1:15:21It's tapped. It's tapped. Now we're getting retreads of those same guys. There's no new guys to kind of bump up. And we're seeing owners who only watch TV kind of just go like, I don't know who we're going to, like, Korn Ferry, who do you think we can sign? And it's just the same exact people. So that is, again, like I said, we're at crossroads. There's got to be a new tree that sprouts up. like I don't know whose tree it is but there's got to be new ideas new inflection is it college eyes coming in Jim Lander is a defensive guy and we're you alluded to it earlier it feels like it's the Sean Payton tree I was going to say it's the is it the Harbaugh Mike McDonald Jesse Minter tree that's an interesting one yeah well defensively I think that's it and then I think if you look at Davis Webb is going to get one of these jobs eventually the McVay guys are going to continue getting these jobs but I think there will be like Declan Doyle.

1:16:11Ben Johnson's guys, I was just about to say. And he's obviously like indirectly, he is off the Peyton tree to an extent. And so I think that collection of guys is where we're going to start mining next. And then we're going to frack it too much and there are going to be some implosions. Yeah. Then we're getting fires and everything. And yeah, it's fascinating to me because I felt like this year it was like, oh yeah, fire the guys. Oh shit, where are the young coaches at? Like, because everybody kept getting fired. I'm like, who are they interviewing? like who like i feel like i'm pretty well versed on who are the interesting candidates and i'm like uh like i don't know guys like there were there were no ben johnson's and no liam cohen's in this in this nope and that's the problem we were talking about before we started the way where we've arrived with this coaching cycle is a perfect storm of bullshit because you have all the just the complete the frustration from some of these long-standing teams not winning the super bowl when the chiefs were not involved so you get the brown the bills and the ravens jobs open You have the constant turnover that you're talking about combined with this crop being not good enough and so much worse than the last couple of years.

1:17:14And so you have the most jobs open in recent memory. You have the most prestigious jobs open in recent memory. And you have no coaches to fill those jobs. That's exactly what happened. And you have owners who are having to do things that make no logical sense to me. Today, the Browns hired Todd Munkin as their head coach. And I think Todd Munkin's a good coach. I'm not saying like he's a terrible coach, but this same ownership group fired Todd Munkin as offensive coordinator in 2019. Do you really think he got so much better over the last six years that he's now suddenly a good head coach? Like, I'm not saying he's a bad head coach, but like if your eval then was, this guy's not even good enough to be ROC, what does that tell you about your hiring him as an HC now?

1:18:00or the owner of the Bills going, hey, these stupid coaches made us draft Keon Coleman. Hey, we're going to promote them. Keep it over here. Keep it over. We're going to promote them. And then they try to pass the buck to the receiver coach. And then it's like, Joe Brady played receiver. His background is receivers. So you guys went over the head coach and over the OC to blame the Bills. You used your high second round pick from the wide receiver coaches. 33. It's basically, it's like, okay, like, all right, all right. Sorry, the Bills have been Mike. oh, they've just been such a joy for me because it's just the whole bullshit they're spouting and it's just so much fun to just parse through it and go, wow, you guys can't even get your lies straight.

1:18:37Yeah. With days to prep. My last one is almost directly connected to this. And that is like the aggressiveness being at an all-time high. I think we've had to recalibrate our concept of what windows look like for NFL teams. the Patriots and the Seahawks have preseason overrunners of eight and a half and they're playing in the Superbowl. And so, and I think for both of these teams, I was guilty of this when the Patriots were throwing all this money around in free agency. I'm like, why? Like what, like to, to, to what, to what end is this happening? Like, well, yeah, it's like the, and there are good contracts and bad contracts in free agency.

1:19:16When the, the Carlton Davis one, specifically, I was like, you think you're going to be good enough, quick enough for this to matter? F*** me And they're about to play for the Super Bowl And I think And the Seahawks are Again, it's not totally the same Because they won a bunch of games last year But when the Seahawks traded Geno Smith and DK Metcalf One of the first responses was Oh, the Seahawks are rebuilding now The Seahawks are in the Super Bowl, right? And so I think that this idea That there is like a logical Sequence of events that has to happen for you to build yourself into a championship team over like a multi-year period, it's kind of gone now.

1:19:56And I think one of the reasons that that's the case is that offensive context can change so fast for these teams in part because of what the right play caller can do for you, right? Like Clint Kubiak being what he was this year combined with Sam Darnold, there is no possible way for us to accurately predict what that would have looked like and what it would have meant for the Seahawks. It's impossible to do. JSN challenging for 2000 yards. There's no world where you can do that. And so there's no world where you could have predicted that this would have been the opening of the title window for the Seahawks.

1:20:35Even if you were the biggest Drake May supporter on the planet and you had faith in what the Josh McDaniels Drake May thing could look like, there is no conceivable way that you could have had him in with a season where he averaged 0.25 EPA per drop back. It'd be crazy to predict that. But I think because of all of this, because of the power that a lot of these coaches have, the good ones, William Cohen and Ben Johnson did this year, like that that's possible. And so the convergence of that with quarterbacks that we don't really properly understand until they're in the right context, everything about the way that you view these teams before and after can change immediately.

1:21:16And so I just think that our understanding of what that means for their ability to win championships and the timeline it takes to win them also has to change. And I think this year was like a really good example of that. I don't think we're back in the mid-aughts. That's what it feels like. I don't disagree. I just, this is the astronaut name for me. It's always been this way. Like, I don't think this is a new thing. I go back to the Rams with McVay. Like, that team went from being all laughing stock, definitely one of the worst seasons we ever saw to being playoff team in year one, Super Bowl team in year two.

1:21:48Yeah, we're having games, man. The Bengals. With Burrow coming back from the ACL. The Bengals are the best comparison to the Patriots. Sure. If I'm trying to tie them together, that's the team they remind me of the most. Same. Go back to the Niners with Harbaugh. The first year Harbaugh got there. They go from being a mediocre team to 13-3 NFC. They probably should have beat the Giants in the NFC Championship. If it wasn't for those special teams, which turns out it mattered then too. I'm not saying you're wrong. You are completely correct. I just think, and this is, I think, I've mentioned this to you guys before.

1:22:19I don't know if it's totally true, but I feel like this is so based on the Jordan era Chicago Bulls, where they went through such a linear process of we're going to win, we're going to lose the first track. We're going to win the first track. We're going to lose the second round. We're going to make it to the conference title game. We're going to lose in there. Then we're going to make it to the finals. Then we're going to win every single year from that point forward. And the team we lost to before in the playoffs, we beat this year. Yes, yes. Right. It is such a, I'm going to go through the entire stable to get to the main heel booking.

1:22:50And it's great when it works out that way. We're going to derail this podcast six hours in. Let's talk about 1995 Halloween Havoc. Let's talk about some monster trucks. I mean, listen, I would say that Drake May is the giant falling off a Cobo Hall and getting up and not having any water on him. I'm putting a kibosh on us right now. You guys are done. You're Tony Schiavone here, Robert. I've always aspired to be exactly that. You're probably right, Barnwell. And honestly, I say this. But not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying that I think we underestimate how quickly these things turn over. Dynasty seemed to warp people's brains.

1:23:27Like, speaking of the Bulls, I actually, it was so funny you said Bulls. I was about to bring up the Warriors, where the Warriors warped everyone in the NBA, and then all of a sudden people realized, oh, actually, yeah, pace and space, shooting, shooting, shooting. Everyone tried to copy it. Well, it gets overtapped, whatever. And then also it's like, well, you have to counter that. And then we see, you know, the Nuggets using size and Jokic and everything. Of course, having being the best player in the world helps. But same thing, I think the, you know, Brady and the Patriots followed by, immediately followed by Mahomes and the Chiefs, that screws you a little bit because you go, well, we need that.

1:24:01We need that. We need that. And it's like, man, shoot, even think of those first Patriots teams, Patriots teams, Chiefs teams. I guess you go Patriots here too. but the first Chiefs team was Mahomes. Remember how bad those defenses were? Like, it wasn't like, and that's what's funny. It was like, that's not exactly how you want to build a team, like, when you actually look at it. But again, just, I mean, this is like a nice way to kind of like end it. But it's just like kind of like speaking what you're saying. It's like, just enough, you have to have enough. You know, kind of like enough of everything just to be valid and all that.

1:24:28But it's fascinating to me what you think is kind of tying in what you said, Robert. It's like kind of changing what you need. Like, I think you're re-gauging it maybe is the best way to put it. like, do you, is that important? Or how important is these things going to be? Quarterback, passing game, run game, defense, it's special teams, et cetera, et cetera. So yeah, no, it's fun how much it changes around, but I do think that dynasty's kind of warped our brains a little bit, and I'm including myself here. The bull, and I think that's what I'm saying. It's like, I have to like make sure I'm thinking of this the right way.

1:24:57Because in my opinion, and Barnwell, the fact that that might honestly be it, where it's just like that bull's like sequence of events is burdened to all of our brains. We're just like, there's a way to do this. So clean. There's a timeline you must do it on. But I also think there are examples where there's so many to me where teams jump the gun and they pay for it. That that's why I feel like this. There's actually a way to do this. And even like, listen, the Patriots may lose the Super Bowl and that Carlton Davis contract might look like a disaster next year. I still think there are proper ways to handle free agent contracts that you give out.

1:25:29But again, I just think that the, the, this year specifically, there have just been multiple teams that have flown in the face of our idea of like what a window really is. And you go back a couple of years, the Broncos and the Rams did this, like the Broncos free agent class in year one under Peyton. I was like, what are they doing? And then those guys that they signed, it was crucial in what this team looks like. The Rams in 2023 were like, well, when's that window going to open back up? The answer is immediately. Immediately. And so I just think maybe I'm too mired in this where I think too traditionally about what the sequence of events has to look like when in reality, the right play call or quarterback combination, I think is always at the center of this.

1:26:10The right quarterback play caller combination smashes that wheel maybe more often than we want to admit. And we should be open to that idea when thinking about how quickly teams can do this. There's more past the victory. I think that's like, yeah, good time. my board game stuff. This is like, speaking of wheels, wheels within wheels, Bill. Dune Imperium, man. That board game, it's good. There's multiple paths to victory. It's just like football. It's time for us to get the hell out of here. Multiple paths. Can we talk about the U.S. soccer team too? We got the World Cup coming up. We can get that in there.

1:26:41Ricardo Pepe transferred to Fulham. Oh, did you see Alex Freeman got signed? Yeah, yeah. Antonio Freeman's son. Hey, hey, hey. FC Central. FC Central, Robert. Antonio Freeman's son. I knew this was a mistake. I knew this was a mistake. All right. That is all we've got for today. Always good to do this with you guys. Barnwell, tell people where they can check out the work that you're doing right now, including the Super Bowl preview you're already maniacally working on like a psycho. ESPN.com, go to the psycho section. You will find me. And Nate, where can people check out the work that you are currently doing?

1:27:18Over at Yahoo and a little bit of NFL Plus stuff. I have some videos kind of coming out now doing some breakdown stuff. But yeah, Yahoo, check out Football 301, all the good stuff over there. I guess that is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow with an update on the coaching carousel. We were going to do a mailbag for Friday. There's just way too much shit we have not talked about yet. Like it feels like there have been 30 coaches hired that we haven't talked about. And so we're going to sit tomorrow and just download on all of that with me, Derek and Dave. We're also going to have a couple of our beat writers on to help me walk through a couple of the processes that I don't understand.

1:27:51Like the bills hiring Joe Brady. So we're going to do a couple of those tomorrow as well. for now though that is all we've got sincerely appreciate you guys listening we'll talk to you very soon