Lingering questions, episode 4: The Steelers' non-QB shortcomings, the Bears' defensive personnel, and the Falcons' pass rush drought

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1:59Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It is the last show, we think, in our lingering question series that we've done this offseason. We reserve the right to have another one if we want to, if we feel like we need to, you know, pop the cap on an idea. because when you're doing four shows a week in the off season, every once in a while, you need to tap into something unexpected. But for now, this is us closing the door on our Lingering Question series. I love doing this. There's just so many things that you don't have the time or bandwidth to really address or think about or even watch in the back half of the season.

2:33Robert Mays: So that's what we've done over the first three shows. If you've not listened to them, I encourage you to go check those out. We've had great conversations about Baker Mayfield, the Chiefs offense, the Niners. All of those shows were fun. I encourage you to go back. Obviously, Evergreen, nothing has changed from the end of last season until right now. Today, mostly focused on defense, kind of on purpose, kind of not. We're going to talk about the Steelers and what they look like outside of their quarterback because the quarterback has taken up so much oxygen this offseason. And then the defensive expectations for both the Bears and the Falcons as teams that, for the most part, we've spent a lot more time thinking and talking about their offenses over the last year or so than their defenses.

3:14Robert Mays: So those are the teams that we're hitting today with me and Derek Klassen. Let's get into those lingering questions from last season right now.

3:27Robert Mays: We've come to the end, I think, with our lingering questions series for 2025. We deserve and we reserve the right to do another one if we see fit down the line. but Derek I think this set of questions which will bring us to 12 total I think allowed us to hit enough of the stuff that were lingering curiosities from last year that I feel pretty good closing the book if this ends up being it it should you know it's only June 19th we still got at least six more weeks of maybe maybe we'll get a little bit bored maybe need some something weird to to keep us stimulated but I do think that these are good ones to close on and one of them truthfully too i think we've been saving for the end uh particularly because of the team at hand so i think it's a good one to close the book on this is really your first off season in like the content minds where we're doing all this stuff in june and so i you're you're learning a lot about when you pull the pin on certain ideas and when you don't and how sometimes you just have to keep the keep your powder dry for a little bit later on because dude for me the last few so the last like couple years I was doing the quarterback charting over at reception perception so there's no thinking in that like you're you're going into the into the google sheet and you're putting in the numbers like there's nothing to it and then before that I was obviously doing like the football outsiders and now ftn the almanac so like you're just in it until like early june and then you just shut the brain off after that and you're like whatever happens between now and publish I don't even care so this is a very different pacing that's for sure I'm sorry for doing this to you but hopefully it's been okay on your end we have three more that we're getting today uh two that are going to be defense specific.

5:04Robert Mays: You know, I think we had an entire show of offense specific ones with the chiefs, the Niners and the bucks. We have a couple of defense specific ones on this show. And I do think the third one is also going to be more defense heavy, even though it does look at the entire team. We're going to start with the one that you just alluded to the entire off season seems like the entire last two off seasons and three years in general, the conversation about the Steelers has essentially been what would happen if the Steelers got a quarterback, What would happen if the Steelers got the right quarterback?

5:32Robert Mays: And I think there's a presumption in that framing that the rest of the team is so good that if they get the quarterback right, the Steelers will automatically be a contender. So I wanted to pull that back a little bit and ask a pretty simple, but I think is a pretty important question. And that's how good are the rest of the Steelers? Because I do think that matters. And part of this is the lingering taste in our mouth from what that playoff game against the Ravens felt like. And so I didn't want to overreact to that as we tried to answer this question. But I think taking into account the rest of the Steelers roster and what Aaron Rodgers is actually walking into is a very important bit of analysis that is necessary for this team at this point in their trajectory.

6:15The answer is not good enough, truthfully. And like there are so many different ways that we could start from this, right? It's like, how are we weighing what Mike Tomlin is as a coach? Or like, how are we weighing what the quarterbacks have been over the years? How are we weighing what Mike Tomlin has done like as an on-field coach versus some of the decisions he's made with offensive coordinator? All that stuff. To me, I think ultimately, if we're talking about the health of the team, it starts with talent.

6:39Robert Mays: Who do you think is where I'm mostly focused, by the way? The talent is what I mostly had focused on, like the roster talent outside of the quarterback. What are we actually talking about here? and that's where I wanted to start because like okay so they drafted T.J. Watt in 2017 and that was a really good class by the way T.J. Watt Cam Sutton James Conner Juju Smith that's emphatically awesome draft class since then like who is the best player that they've drafted like Alex Highsmith is pretty good I think we like Joey Porter he's probably not an elite corner but he's a pretty good one and like those are probably it and you've gotten some other hits I think some of the offensive linemen they drafted last year have been good and have shown some promise but But even a lot of the other hits over their draft history, just like it didn't stay with the team like Kevin Dotson.

7:24They traded him after his third year to the Rams and he's been really good for the Rams for pennies on the dollar, by the way. He's traded him for pennies on the dollar. They swapped like fifth round picks. They literally traded him for nothing. And he's been one of the best Rams offensive linemen over the past couple of years. So that one is crazy. And like their 2021 class, you draft Najee Harris, Pat Fryer, Muth, Dan Moore. Two of those guys are no longer on the team. And like they're they're NFL starters. They're not great, but their NFL starters no longer on the team. You'd have Pickens in 2022.

7:51He's not on the team. Like, it's just even some of the guys who are in theory hits aren't weren't good enough for them to be like, we have to keep them around. And that's a problem.

8:00Robert Mays: And for Dan Moore, they're hopefully going to get a comp pick. And that's pretty high in next year's draft. It might be even higher than when he was drafted for Pickens. They're going to get they already got a third round pick. So these aren't total waste. Like these are guys that have had some value as NFL players, but that doesn't apply to the 2025 Steelers roster. And I do think that's worth considering. I had a very similar note just about what the drafts have looked like recently. And the ones to me that are worth pointing out are the 2021 and 2022 drafts, because those are recent enough where you're really hoping to have some cornerstone pieces from those drafts as those guys are still in their rookie contracts or just coming out of them.

8:35Robert Mays: And in the first couple rounds, you got Najee in the first round, Kenny Pickett in the first round, George Pickens in the second round, Kendrick Green, DeMarvin Leal, a lot of guys that are just not a part of this team anymore, not a part of their plans. Even the Dan Moore thing, Dan Moore gets a$20 million a year contract this offseason from the Titans. We can go back and forth about whether that's worth it, but Dan Moore is probably a starting caliber left tackle. The fact that they didn't develop Dan Moore enough before this season caused them to draft two tackles in the first round. And now you've already spent a first round pick on Broderick Jones, when in theory, you probably just could have kept Dan Moore if his trajectory and his development plan had looked a little bit different.

9:16Robert Mays: I'm not going to crush them for that, but that's what we're talking about here, where the way the last three, four or five drafts have gone, there are a lot of different reasons why there are more holes on this version of the Steelers than we're probably used to on the really competitive Steelers teams that we watched over the last 10 to 15 years. And I do actually like kind of to that point, that is kind of why I wanted to talk about the coaching a little bit, because there are some good players here, right? Like Joey Porter. I think Keanu Benton is solid. Pat Fryermuth. Even Keanu Benton, though.

9:45Robert Mays: Even Keanu Benton, in part, they had to draft a guy in the first round this year because he didn't develop the way that they had hoped he was going to. And that's what I was going to say. How many of these players are actually playing at their peak potential? I think Mike Tomlin is great in terms of managing the locker room and somehow getting very high floor out of players that maybe shouldn't be on the field, whether it's like backup linemen or they're just throwing like Beanie Bishop at the nickel. They're really good at getting quality play out of those guys. I just don't know how often I feel like we're getting peak play out of some of their talented guys who probably have another level to reach and haven't quite gotten there.

10:22And that's how I feel about Benton and Porter and guys like that. That's so interesting.

10:26Robert Mays: I think those two guys specifically, I get what you're trying to say. Other than that, though, I do feel like the high end talent is not where this defense really has an issue. Benton and Porter maybe, because those were two guys. I mean, go back and listen to every breakout player show from two summers ago. Keanu Benton was on every single one, including ours, because I thought his flashes as a rookie was really impressive, and he's just never really been able to put it all together. With Porter, I still feel like that's probably possible. Corners are weird. He's going into year three. I do think he still has a really high ceiling.

11:01Robert Mays: My experience watching the defense specifically, when I went back to do this and try to answer this question. Based on the Ravens game, I expected to be more disappointed in the defense in the last four or five games I watched from the end of the season than I actually was. My experience watching the defense is the high-end players are still very good. Like TJ Watt is still very good. Cam Hayward is still very good. Alex Heismanth is very good. The linebackers is a conversation we can have. I do think that the high-end play and the splash play from those guys, they're there because they're so physically talented.

11:36Robert Mays: And then the secondary, I think Porter's a good player. I think Mink is a good player. But the issue for me is you really saw the weaknesses on that defense, even though there are a lot of elite players on that defense. You go back and you watch and they're not even like disastrous games, but you feel the Bengals trying to pick on Corey Trice and Beanie Bishop in week 18 last year. And I just don't know that they've done a ton to make up for those weak points, right? Like there's a chance Beanie Bishop starts again this year. Darius Slay had a really nice season last year. You're betting on a corner that's heading into his mid thirties.

12:11Robert Mays: And other than that, the big addition in this off season was Derek Harmon. Who's really just replacing Keanu Benton in your plans. So that understanding of the defense where, all right, I really liked the high end play. I think they're about a bottom half of the top 10 sort of defense. You can win with that. If the offense is good enough, that's kind of the same framing I have this year but I think that's if things break right for them not if things break wrong that's probably fair like the best players are still really good I do I guess with the the point about like Benton and Porter is like all the guys you mentioned they haven't drafted any of them since like before COVID and so I guess that's what I mean it's like Highsmith is probably the best example of this yeah yeah and he's the last one and so I guess that's more my point it's like some of the guys they've drafted recently I just don't know if I felt like they've gotten Pro Bowl caliber play out of guys that in theory to me have Pro Bowl level talent in specifically Benton and Joey Porter and I think he might get there I think that's right but I think I think the Harmon pick and listen you can frame the Harmon pick as we're planning for Cam Hayward moving on after this year potentially like this is both for now and the future but I think they've essentially come out and said that Derek Harmon is going to start next to Cam Hayward this year and the hope would be at this point in his career that counter Benton would be good enough to prevent that from happening.

13:26Robert Mays: And I just don't think that's really happened at the clip. We would have hoped when you were watching the defense, just beyond like the individual talent, what is your experience watching them? Like what sort of, how would you categorize them? What would you, who would you lump them in with both in terms of how they run the defense, how it feels to watch the defense and kind of where they sit in the broader pecking order of defenses around the league? it feels like i think in a very general sense they do a lot of like the the fire zone stuff that a lot of other teams are doing it at this day and age in modern defense but like it feels a little bit like they're like three updates behind in terms of like how a lot of that stuff gets run and and that's probably my experience with it and that's probably natural right with like tomlin has been overseeing the defense for a very long time and usually the guys that he has on staff or guys that have been there for a very very long time and like that is also the other minor complication that I've that like I think makes the whole Steelers conversation in in general kind of difficult is like Tomlin has done so many things well right but ultimately at the end of the day I think the biggest criticism you could have and this is why I think it would be hard for the front office to say is like creativity is probably Mike Tomlin's biggest hindrance at this point and I think you see it in the way that the defense is put together but like how do you tell a guy in his position when you've been together for so long, hey, you need to be more creative.

14:48And that's, I think, ultimately what a lot of this stuff boils down to.

14:51Robert Mays: What would you like to see more of from them? Because I had a similar thought when I went into it. And then I looked at a couple of individual game plans and also just like the coverage menus overall. And I actually was more impressed is probably a strong way to put it. But I think pleasantly surprised by some of the layers of what they were doing that I think based on my recollections of some of the numbers from last year, like the amount of man and cover three they were running compared to the league at large. I thought it was actually a little bit more simplistic than it is when you dig into it.

15:19Robert Mays: So what layers of creativity do you think have been missing that you would like to see a little bit more of to potentially unlock some of those guys that you're talking about? I think to me, it's just like, and this is gonna be hard because they have some young linebackers, right? Like Peyton Wilson is a guy they drafted last year. But I think being able to be a little bit more creative and put a little bit more onto their plate, I think would go a long way because I think we sort of had this conversation a little bit a couple of years ago when the Denver Broncos defense was like kind of coming together.

15:45And it was like. They did a lot well on those defenses, but their linebackers, all they were ever, ever, ever capable of was spot drop to like eight yards and then go catch the running back in front of you. And that's a little bit how I feel watching the Steelers. Like, I don't feel like they are allowing their linebackers to like, hey, we need to cover three here or they don't trust them to do a whole lot of that. And so maybe that to me is just like, I think when you watch a lot of the best defenses, they are able to tie together a lot of their creative stuff by virtue of what their linebacker is able to do whether it's uh the peak 49ers with with fred warner some of the stuff that baltimore has been able to do with roquan smith defenses demario davis even in dennis allen's defense who i think we're going to talk about it a little bit here like those style of when you have a linebacker who i think can a little bit allow you to live in some reckless worlds in terms of how you're covering the middle uh i think that could go a long way but they just don't have a guy like that right now like patrick queen isn't that guy i agree and you could easily say

16:42Robert Mays: well you're comparing him to the best linebackers in the league do you know what patrick queen is making against the cap this year exactly and he is making money that suggests that he should be able to do some of that stuff and you see five linebacker money you see flashes but he is more of a hey go run to the perimeter and chase that guy down guide he's awesome at that right but he's it's just him asking him to do the roquan smith cover the seams is like not as much as wheelhouse and you see a lot of splash plays from those two guys because again there's a lot of pop from both of those guys they run well they move well but again moving backward is not the strong suit for either of them and i think what makes that even more problematic within this defense let's say you had those two types of linebackers and you had two rock solid safeties and a nickel that you felt really good about well that's not the case here the other safety and the nickel are two of the weak points on the entire defense.

17:35Robert Mays: Like you're just scrambling for workable options here. It's like, all right, we're going to throw one Thornhill at the Demonte KZ problem this year and see if this solves it. And him and Deshaun Elliott are enough. And again, you look back and you watch what defense or offenses are doing to them. And they're consistently going after those couple guys. When you combine that with linebackers who aren't necessarily the strongest in coverage, I think that you really start to find weaknesses in the coverage unit overall. And that's why if you're if you're not going to have backers who can play a little bit deeper and stuff like that in coverage, you kind of need to play, in my opinion, some more of like the quarters world where you're allowing your safeties to come up and really cover a lot of that stuff for you.

18:16D 'Amico Ryan's defense do a really good job of that because they have a very aggressive safety room and very aggressive nickel. And they're able to do a lot of that stuff. So like even if you think of the Chiefs like two years ago when Trent McDuffie was playing more of the nickel, that's kind of what you when you don't have linebackers who do a great job of being able to do all that super the sexy stuff in coverage. You kind of need your safeties and nickel to be able to play a little bit more aggressive and do some of that stuff for you. The Steelers, this was a complaint we had coming into last season, right?

18:44We were like, who the hell is going to play nickel for them? And being a bishop was like, OK, but at the end of the day, it's like, well, they still kind of need a nickel.

18:52Robert Mays: And it's funny, you said the quarters thing. They play very little quarters. I mean, when you look at their coverage menu, again, they run a ton of man and a ton of cover three. It's a nice, on third down, it's actually an interesting mix where you look at it, they play about 30, about a third of their snaps on third down are man or cover three, right? So that's a reasonable mix. And then they play more cover two than all but three teams in the NFL on third down. And I actually think some of the curve balls that they had with that did work out well and were nice compliments. There's a specific play from the Bengals game that I remember where it was a third down.

19:28Robert Mays: The Bengals had a funky formation where there was a tight end or a running back at number one to try to get a man zone tell. Queen was all the way lined up over the number one receiver. So you think it's man coverage and they drop him back and they play cover two. So like there are some wrinkles like that where it's not super, super simplistic. And I think even if you're only playing a few different coverages, if they're all happening and equal weight and offenses don't really know what's coming you can get away with that relative simplicity but i still think that like you said that version of it where they're playing a lot more quarters and that's unlocking the players they have that's not the style of this defense well and even the cover two thing they do have some really good concepts with that but that's like the tomlin defenses have done that for almost two decades now like that has always been their like favorite bread and butter like change up they love like some of the two trap stuff um i remember them doing that like a decade ago like and so that's kind of my thing is like they do do a really good job in that wheelhouse but to the point of like mixing up with other coverages i just don't feel like they can get away with it and like minka is a minka fitzpatrick is a really really good safety he's always been best as a pure center fielder or being able to just be like a rat like a whole player he is not to me always been much of like a we play quarters we drive on everything that style of player and so maybe that's part of why they don't want to do a whole lot of it either Yeah, because that's the best application of him is the style that they currently play.

20:48Robert Mays: When I look at this defense, again, I think there are some things coming into it where I expected to be a little bit more disappointed than I was when we were watching them. The game that is the best example of this, but I think that you see it consistently, essentially in all the games except the Ravens game in the back half of last year, they just make, they squeeze, right? Like they drain the life out of the game. They made things hard for you. The Washington game is the best possible example of that. They really just kind of squeeze that entire game. And even the first Ravens game, they're all of like the voids that should exist in the coverages that they're playing.

21:20Robert Mays: A lot of like throws up the seam, for example, they're squeezing so many of these things and making them difficult. So I do think you feel that when you watch them where there isn't a lot of air and open space and they do make things hard on you. But I still think some of the weak points and weak personnel pieces in coverage, you can pick on them a little bit. When this team doesn't get pressure, you can get after them. And I think the numbers bared that out in a way that I thought was pretty jarring. Last year on plays without pressure, they had the eighth worst passing success rate in the NFL on defense.

21:53Robert Mays: When they did get pressure, they had the second best EPA per drop back in the NFL. And you feel that when you watch them. Like when the quarterback is bothered and the coverage players matter less, this defense can look really good because the front is so good. but you don't want to have to live that way. And it kind of seems like based on the construction of the defense, we're probably going to be living that way again in 2025. That's honestly such a great way to put it. Cause I think if you just asked me like, what is a very simple way for how the Steelers defense feels like just the feeling of watching them over the course of probably the last couple of years, it's either TJ Watt is taking over the game where he's not.

22:31And like in the games where he's not, and like I'm using TJ Watt is like a, a totem for the rest of the front, obviously but when he's not taking over the game you get games where you notice who is playing safety who is playing nickel who is playing the other corner spot outside of border yeah and this

22:46Robert Mays: was true even when they were a healthier version of themselves last year even when Dante Jackson was playing last year this was an issue and then when he was hurt and Corey Trice was playing I think it was even more of an issue and TJ Watts numbers are relatively down if you just look at pressure rate all that kind of stuff and it's just because of how much attention is being soaked up by TJ Watt. So I think having TJ Watt be a standing for the front overall is fine because if he's being taken away when they're healthy and rolling, there's a good chance one of those other guys is really asserting himself in the game.

23:18Robert Mays: But if that front is not dictating how things are going to go, I think you start to feel how fragile the rest of this looks. And even with a Darius Slay, I'm not sure I feel that much better about the component parts heading into this year and that one's the annoying one right because like if you told me for sure that Darius Slay would be that what he was last year it was like yeah this does solve a lot but a corner that old how can you be any sort of certain that you're going to get what you got out of last year and like if he's I guess even if he's just as good as Dante Jackson when Dante Jackson was healthy that's I don't know they're paying him a decent amount of money I don't even think that is probably going to feel very good for them but that's kind of my question is all right let's say plays as well as Dante Jackson, even a little bit better.

24:00Robert Mays: What do you think the ceiling is for this defense? And if the ceiling for this defense is the eighth best defense in the league, where does that leave the Steelers? Because we're going to get to the offense here in a second. It leaves you like eight wins. I think we said that. I don't remember which show that we were doing this on. But I know for a fact we said at some point it was like if the defense is anything short of elite, it's not going to be good enough to get them back into, you know, keeping the, the, you know, where Tomlin can get to 500 and stuff like that. And I, it's very hard for me to see the world where they are elite.

24:37It's very, very hard for me to see it.

24:38Robert Mays: And if that world is not realized, then I think that we have some problems. I would not say eight wins. I would say nine wins because I think that's just a safer territory to put the Steelers in. But I get what you're saying. Transitioning to the offense. I don't think we have to spend as much time on this because we literally just had an entire conversation about every aspect of the offense besides the quarterback. But answering that, that question is framed at the beginning. How good are the Steelers outside of the quarterback? How good are the rest of the Steelers? Where do you land on that when it comes to the offense?

25:12That one's funny because they probably weren't as bad as we all remember them to be last year. But I also don't think they're going to be any better. And that's, I think, going to a revisit at around the same spot, like the only. And again, I said this on the supporting cast show. The only world where I see them being significantly better is if the offensive line takes the step from like young and interesting and feisty into like being a top seven unit, which is totally possible. I just think you're projecting a lot out of those guys. But to me, like I don't think the quarterback situation is is that much better.

25:41And I realize. The five percent outcome that we get very good Aaron Rodgers again is like way better than anything that we were ever going to get from Russell Wilson or Justin Fields in any outcome. I just think it's more likely that he is playing around the same level that we got from them last year. And I think he adds similar constraints like I know that he's Rodgers has worked in an Arthur Smith esque offense and in the Matt LaFleur offense back in Green Bay. But like, I think at this point with Rogers being a little bit less mobile, I think being even older, I think that's going to be an issue at this point.

26:11You have to start worrying, like, is the arm going to fall off at some point, which we haven't seen it yet. Right. So that feels good. But at some point, it probably has to happen. And then I think with him wanting to be in the shotgun as much as he is, that worries me a little bit with the construction of the offense.

26:26Robert Mays: They're not the same. I'm not trying to paint them with the same brush. But this idea of Russell Wilson being like, it's all threes or layups, not just how he's going to play. This version of Aaron Rodgers isn't that dissimilar, right? Like he's only throwing like go balls that he feels like are an advantage for him or like free access throws. And so he, the same issues Russell Wilson has kind of always had about reading stuff out. This Aaron, this version of Aaron Rodgers, who's kind of over it, has some of the same drawbacks that we've talked about with Russell Wilson over like many years. he he does and like at this stage rogers is probably a better quick game passer but also a lot of his vertical stuff is like you said it's the back shoulder stuff whereas at least russ he's gonna try to put it all the way over the top and at least gonna try to get you into the end zone so that's the trade-off but it really is like some similar trade-offs that you're having to make as an offense and certain stuff that you're gonna have to live with that can make everybody else's jobs a little bit harder the best path forward for me the way that i see it is that this offensive line gels and it gels where they can just run the shit out of the ball.

27:33Robert Mays: And that didn't happen. We thought that might happen coming into last year. And obviously, Fonu gets hurt and they have some issues elsewhere. But I think that's the best possible outcome for them. I just don't know how much I'm willing to bet on that right now. You have Broderick Jones now switching sides again, theoretically. You have Fonu who have never really seen play. And so I think there's a path where that can happen. I just don't know if I'd necessarily be willing to bet on that right now. And I know it's not even the most important part of this, because I do think to a certain degree, if the offensive line is playing well, anyone running behind them will be fairly effective.

28:06But we're getting Jalen Warren and Caleb Johnson, who it's a rookie and a guy that we've never really seen take this much volume in a guy like Jalen Warren. Like there's a chance that even if the run game is like pretty good, it doesn't quite have the ceiling that you want for a run game where you're running the piss out of the ball like that.

28:22Robert Mays: Yeah, that'd be it. I think Jalen, I think the way that Caleb Johnson clicks with this will ultimately determine that. Like I think Warren is always going to be a fun complimentary option within a backfield. If Jalen, if I don't know why I keep calling him, trying to call him Jalen Johnson, we're going to get to Jalen Johnson here in a second. If Caleb Johnson can come in and be somebody that can give you 18 carries a game and there's a little bit of pop with those carries, then I think the dynamics of the run game start to shift a little bit. Najee could give you 18 carries a game. There just wasn't a lot of pop to go along with those 18 carries.

28:54Yeah, none of them are going beyond 15. You at least hope Caleb Johnson can get one of them that far.

28:58Robert Mays: And that's kind of what Caleb Johnson. I mean, he was more of a home run hitter than his measurables would suggest at Iowa. And again, we've talked a lot about how he is a good scheme fit for this offense. So if he can be an upgrade there as your innings eating running back and Jalen Warren can just be what you've always asked Jalen Warren to be, I think the backfield can be better. But ultimately, this is going to be dictated by what sort of steps forward we see with the offensive line. Yeah. The last thing I will say, though, to the point of like being in shotgun versus under center. Are you worried about that at all?

29:29The fact that like Arthur Smith wants to be in dot formations, whether it's under center or in the pistol like he was doing with Ritter and stuff like that. And even Mariota versus like Rogers wants to be in the gun, man. Like there's a little bit of contention there.

29:41Robert Mays: yes i i worried is i'm probably not worried just because it's not taking up a lot of you don't care enough space for me right now yeah i i i i think that's fair though i don't care enough to be worried is probably the answer but yes i think it's absolutely a point of curiosity and i would love to be a fly on the wall for some of those conversations right now as they're installing the offense as they're talking about what they want to be, as he talks about his preferences, as they try to find some sort of middle ground. I think that is going to be a fascinating process. And it's going to be one that I'm curious to learn more about as they get a little bit deeper into it.

30:25And the last layer of that is like, it seemed like Arthur Smith really liked Justin Fields was overruled to have Russell Wilson. And now we're going to have 42 year old Aaron Rogers saying, I don't want to do some of that. It's just an, it's a, it's an interesting room.

30:36Robert Mays: yes I the quarterback situations that Arthur Smith has dealt with over the last three or four years are enough to age a man I will say he was not blameless in the Ritter part of it all I think that he was an active participant in that being the final choice for the Falcons so I can only have so much sympathy for him in this moment but yeah it's it's certainly been a ride uh day to day even if he was part of the decision making team for one of those issues all right we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back with our next lingering question about, unfortunately, my Chicago Bears.

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33:56Robert Mays: Let's talk about the Bears. And similar to the Steelers, the Bears question we want to ask is a little bit of a zag compared to the discussion and conversation and dialogue about the Bears this entire offseason. All we've heard about is the offensive line improving, Ben Johnson helping the offense, and Dennis Allen coming in is obviously huge. But I think that there's a general consensus that the Bears defense has good players on it. At least things kind of fell apart last year because the floor fell out, like, especially after the Eber flu is firing, everyone was like, all right, I'm out to lunch.

34:31Robert Mays: Like I'll see you in Cabo. But I do think it's worth asking and just revisiting this and saying, all right, how good are the players on the Bears defense actually? Like, is this a talented defense to the point that with better coaching or just with competent coaching again over the course of this season, we can expect this to be a definitively good unit. So when you went back and you watched the Bears defense from last year, where did you land on this? I think some position groups, it's an emphatic yes. Some position groups, I'm a little bit curious. I think the corner room is really, really good.

35:08Like Jalen Johnson is probably not in that elite tier, right? With like Derek Stingley and Patrick Sertan. But I think like right under that tier, he is certainly there. I think he made all pro last year. Like he's he's an awesome corner. Kyler Gordon, when he's healthy, is a really good nickel. And obviously that was a little bit of an issue. He missed a few games last year. But like when he's healthy, he's a very good player and he's very active in run defense, which I think moving into the Dennis Allen defense is going to be an absolute necessity.

35:32Robert Mays: All the secondary guys are like the secondary collectively will tackle on this team in a way that I appreciate. That exactly like Brisker. Obviously, he was a guy who missed some games last year and he's going to be tricky because. he it was all concussion issues you don't know how healthy he's really going to be for this next year that's kind of my my sticking point there is I wish he was a little bit less active in the tackling part of things yeah if we could take like 10 of his activeness and just like give it to maybe Tyreek Stevenson or something I think everybody would be a little bit more uh at equilibrium there that would probably be good for everybody I agree with you on the secondary and Tyreek Stevenson had a rough year last year I think that the Tyreek Stevenson sophomore year is a reminder of a few different things.

36:15Robert Mays: One, player development is not linear in any way. Two, cornerback play specifically is incredibly volatile. It can be really promising and then it can take a dip. I absolutely still have a candle lit for Tyreek Stevenson turning into a good player. The idea that they were going to replace him this offseason and people were like, oh yeah, the Bears need a corner. I think that is misguided. I think there is definitely an outcome with Al Harrison there now and Dennis Allen coming in where you see a big bounce back year from Tyler Steven, Tyree Stevenson, just based on the talent that we're talking about here.

36:48Yeah, he's he's big. He can run like he's I think he can be his best moments are really good. I think he can be good. I think it's just everything that you mentioned. And then in week, what, seven or eight, you have that absolute catastrophe moment against Washington as a second year player, man. Yeah, it's probably hard to be in the right head space for a lot of the rest of the season, especially when, again, your head coach is getting fired and then that guy is getting like it just there were so many different moving pieces that I really think with with more stability with Dennis Allen that he's probably going to end up playing well and corners typically in that scheme do play a lot of their best ball like when they're around guys like Dennis Allen I think that that's probably going to be true the biggest point of contention for me is a lot of the front like Montez Sweat is a really really good player the rest of what I'm looking at at edge depth gives me a little bit of concern and then I just them not convinced that the defensive tackle room is that good.

37:42Robert Mays: I don't, I don't think that's a crazy thing to say. I think the only way to spin this positively is that that room looks very, very different than it did, especially in the back half of last season. Like you're looking at the guys who were playing a decent amount of snaps from weeks like 10 on. And if you look at the numbers, by the way, for the bears defense, after Eberflus got fired and before Eberflus got fired, they were an absolute train wreck in the back half of the year when everyone was checked out. They finished 28th in weighted defensive DVOA. The Bears did. And that's why I think this is a relevant conversation.

38:15Robert Mays: But you look at some of the other numbers, essentially before week 11, they were fourth in EPA per drop back defensively. They were really good on defense before everything fell apart. And I think that's why this is a sticky but interesting conversation. If you look at the back half of the year and you look at the guys getting snaps, Byron Cowart, DeMarcus Walker, Zach Pickens is getting a lot of work. All of those guys who made up the defensive tackle and defensive end room are either no longer on the roster or now are on the third wave of the defensive line depth chart. Like the only guys who were getting consistent run last year, they're going to be huge parts of the plans this year are essentially Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter and maybe Austin Booker, the defensive tackle room specifically, your second, third defensive tackles will hopefully be Shamar Turner and Grady Jarrett.

39:09Robert Mays: And we can talk about what your expectations are for both of those players, but it's definitely an area where they knew they needed not one, but two bodies at pretty much every single one of these positions. So that's at least defensive tackle. You can kind of sell me on, right? Cause I do think that there's a Dennis Allen is obviously very familiar with Grady Jarrett they coached in the same division as Grady Jarrett for a long time so there might be something there where he believes that Jarrett in a better situation has something a little bit more juice left to offer and I think that's possible especially if you can limit his snaps a little bit bringing in a guy like Shamar Turner but I still have some question marks about it I'm more concerned about edge depth to be honest like they and that is to me the biggest issue if any of Montez Sweat, Dayo, Odangbo or Austin Booker miss any amount of time.

39:55Your next edge up is like Daniel Hardy or Dominic Robinson, who they said they were going to develop like four years ago and never really happened. Like, it's just, you are really picking at guys who are, do not have a lot of good NFL experience.

40:08Robert Mays: Yeah. It was my biggest issue, like with the entire team building process in the off season. And I understand they needed multiple defensive linemen on the interior and maybe Shamar Turner can give you some early down snaps at defensive end if they decide that they needed that. But the edge depth overall is absolutely my biggest question. Like you're really relying on Austin Booker to take a significant step forward. The one kind of PS, the postmark I'll put on the defensive tackle conversation. Ben Johnson said this after being hired. And I kind of smiled when I heard him say it because it's 100 % true.

40:39Robert Mays: When this team lost Andrew Billings last year, it was a really big deal. He was, I think, even and I know Montez Sweat was banged up for a huge chunk of last season. Andrew Billings was the best pass rusher on the Bears last year. That says more about the rest of the Bears than it says about Andrew Billings. But now the fact that he could potentially be your fourth defensive tackle and not your best defensive tackle, if Gervon Dexter still continues to develop, I think there's at least a route to this group being acceptable in a way that they've been very far away from the last couple of years.

41:15that's actually a really good way to frame it is that by virtue of just bumping billings down assuming that he can play at relatively the same level that makes him a much better unit I guess I was still stuck on like what is the ceiling really for that but if we can go from not having one of the worst defensive like them and dude watching someone like the Panthers like it wasn't quite as bad as it was for the Panthers but it wasn't a whole lot better at certain points last

41:37Robert Mays: year for the Bears yeah I think if you can get to average on the on the defensive front I think that goes a long way. And a couple of things I'll say that could contribute to that. You're hopefully the reason you sign out dang bow is that he's a guy hitting his prime. Like, right. He's a second contract player. Hopefully his best football was in front of him. Even if that requires a little bit of a projection, we're going to talk about the Falcons here in a minute. I was actually pleasantly surprised going back and watching the Falcons defense, like how much Grady Jarrett still has left in the tank.

42:04Robert Mays: Like some of his best moments are still pretty good, even if he's not a star level player anymore. And it was, it was very instructive because I watched the bears defense and then the Falcons defense back to back. And so it was nice to be like, Oh, if you drop that guy into what the bears had, he is much better than what they were dealing with. The Dexter part of it is interesting because he had, he was again, somebody that everybody expected to kind of take a step forward heading into last year. It didn't really happen. The tools are kind of tantalizing. Like they're still there. He plays with power.

42:38Robert Mays: He's obviously very big. it's just moving a little bit slower than you want it to like you can feel the gears going with him and I still hope that it can all come together heading into year three like that's not off the table for me but we're having a similar conversation about him him heading into this year as we had heading into last year and that gives me a little bit of pause that gives me a smidgen of pause I also think one of my biggest issues kind of with the way that this room constructed is like even if like I do think Grady Jarrett still has some juice especially as a pass rusher and like getting into the backfield um Javon Dexter you see some moments Shamar Turner I understand like what the appeal is there I still don't feel like they have a guy who like you sit him there and he's going to eat space for you like I I don't know if the billings is supposed to be that he's supposed to be actually he actually was a better pass rusher last year than he was a run defender exactly he looks like and Dexter's even kind of like this where he looks like a run defender and then you get them over a guard on third down and you're like, oh, wait, that's actually the thing that you do the best.

43:42But that's also what Grady Jarrett needs to. It's just like, I don't know who that guy's supposed to be for them. And that's why I get a little bit concerned.

43:48Robert Mays: And I think part of the issue that kind of compounds that concern is that the line there, there are no like cans of kick-ass in this front seven outside of Montez Sweat against the run. And I think that's my biggest issue. And I wanted to ask you about the linebackers specifically, because if you're looking at investment and resources compared to output, I actually think that's the area of the defense that probably deserves the most scrutiny. TJ Edwards is what he is. I like TJ Edwards. And this is kind of funny because it brings me back to the day the Bears signed TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmonds.

44:21Robert Mays: When they signed TJ Edwards to that deal, I was like, great, that's perfectly reasonable coming off the season TJ Edwards just had with the Eagles. Like, I like this. They signed him to an extension this offseason. He is a solid player. And then you watch Edmonds and it's just such a tough thing to untangle because the entire selling point with Tremaine Edmonds is that he is supposed to be this pterodactyl-like figure in the middle of your defense that's just taking away so much space because of the length that he can play with. He was an elite coverage player in his last year with Buffalo. And you see some of that quietly affecting the games when you watch the Bears.

45:02Robert Mays: The best example of this, and this isn't a causal thing, but I do think it's worth noting, the Bears were number one in the league. They allowed the fewest total EPA on throws between the hashes, between zero and nine yards past the line of scrimmage. He is taking away some of that space when you watch them play. but other than that he's just not affecting the game in the way that you need from a guy who is making the third most money among all off-ball linebackers like he's a non-factor in the run game he's just not a physical player I would argue he's sometimes a negative factor in the run yes he's he's a very good athlete so sometimes you can see him make plays on the perimeter him and Edwards are really funny together because Edwards is like linebacker teach tape like if If I had a 17 year old, I wanted to show how to how to play the position.

45:53It's like the Kirk Cousins thing with quarterbacks, right? It's like you don't watch it. You don't tell a quarterback to go watch Josh Allen. You tell him to watch Kirk Cousins because that's like a physically attainable way that you can play the game. That's what Edwards is. Edmonds is a really long, really fast athlete who takes the wrong step half of the time and run defense.

46:11Robert Mays: And he also is not assertive. Like he's not like he does that. We're talking about honorable players. He is not your type of linebacker. he is I really struggled with him in Buffalo for a long time and I that last year I came around a little bit because the coverage stuff was really good and that's kind of been true in Chicago right but it's it's not quite to the degree of guys like the Fred Warners or Pico Con Smith like he's to me not quite up to that level and then in run defense he is too often a negative that it really hurts you and that's why the defensive tackle thing is such an important note for me it's like if you're going to have a linebacker who's not that assertive you need the defensive tackle to buy you a little bit more time, hang on to that guards Jersey for a quarter of a second longer so that the backer can get, can get in there.

46:53I, with the guys they have in front of Edmonds, it gives me a little bit of concern.

46:57Robert Mays: I have that similar concern. You'd hope that you can just have some like a splash negative plays, like penetrating plays with this group because they don't have the body types to necessarily hold up and control space. Like that's the positive way to spin it. For me, the last note, last thing I'll note before I ask you a question that I'm curious about when, as you think about this team, I think some people are going to look at the pressure rates with the bears and they're going to be like, well, this team doesn't have a pass rush problem. Like if you look at it, NGS, PFF, all that stuff, true media, they're like in the top 10 in overall pressure rate.

47:30Robert Mays: And this is just one of those moments where like, I just don't think that's right. Like the way that we're charting pressures based on player tracking, like I just have some issues with this. And if you, if you dig a little bit deeper, you actually do see some of that when with a couple other stats. So their pressure rate was actually like, again, pretty high compared to the way we think about this defensive front. Their quick pressure rate was below average and their time to pressure, their average time to pressure was the seventh lowest in the NFL. and their time to sack was dead last in the league.

48:07Robert Mays: So even if you're kind of affecting the pocket and that's what pressure rates are based on player tracking, if you dig just a tiny bit deeper for like what this group is actually doing compared to the best fronts in the league, there's a substantial gap between them and really good teams. Well, and that like what you just said, that all just sounds like a really good coverage unit with the front who can push the pocket rather than like actually get to the quarterback. they're good at getting like proximity to the quarterback because the coverage unit buys them two and a half seconds but if they're not doing that like in the instances where kyler gordon's not playing a couple games or jaquan brisker is out that starts to fall apart and then the pass rush outside of the the handful of times where montez sweat is just going to beat someone silly uh immediately you don't have that many other guys and that is what makes this unit interesting is like so they go out and spend for dio adangbo right that's not really what he does either he's not a get to the quarterback fast guy.

49:00He's a, we're going to be 280 pounds. We're going to crush the pocket. And that's what Dennis Allen wants to do. And you would hope that him coaching the unit a little bit better. Hopefully the secondary staying healthier kind of bridges all of that together in a better way. But even that it's still going to be like a slow ish pressure unit.

49:18Robert Mays: I'm going to present two circumstances to you about how the season could go. And I want your analysis and what you think is going to happen at the end of it all. This team finishes 10th in adjusted games lost on defense. Like they're not the healthiest defense in the league. They're not decimated by injury. It's an average amount of health look. Dennis Allen continues to be what we think Dennis Allen is. If he's not a top three defensive coordinator in the league, then he's a top seven defensive coordinator in the league, a definitive difference maker in a positive way. Do you think it's more likely that this group finishes as the 10th best defense in the league or the 20th best defense in the league with that stuff being the case i would say the 10th like i think is is that enough for the answer to this lingering question being we still have some concerns but overall they still have the makings of what can be a very good defense yes i think they have they could use a couple more good players especially along you know edge depth defensive tackle whatever it is i think they have enough good players with assuming what i what we're going to get out of Dennis Allen that you can be a top 10 unit and like I don't know what that means in terms of like win total or where they stand in the division all that other stuff but if they can get back to being a 10th ranked defensive unit based on how bad it was at the end of the Eberflus era or actually once he was fired I guess that is absolutely a win because the next season you can just sell yourself you add one or two more guys and you're in like the top six conversation it's very different than the Steelers discussion because the Steelers have a lot of really, really good players.

50:54Robert Mays: And then some guys where it's a huge hole and the Bears don't have that many really, really good players. But if things break right, they also don't have that many abjectly bad players. It's like the Seahawks thing. Yes. And Mike McDonald, instead of being the third, the fourth best defensive play caller is like number one. That's the difference. And I think you're saying, all right, I don't know how that's going to play into win totals. That again, kind of feeds into the overall framing and the overall discussion around the Bears where people have treated the defense is kind of a known quantity and it's all about the offense.

51:25Robert Mays: And that's how I feel about the win total. It's kind of like, yeah, the defense will probably be what we expect it to be. What happens with the offense will ultimately determine whether this team rises or falls. And I do think that upon examining it all is the right way to look at it, even if that's kind of what the cliche has been with everybody this spring. Actually, kind of to that point, you're a Bears fan. What is like the worst that they could finish as a defense? let's assume the offense hits like a 65th percentile outcome like they're pretty good what is the worst the defense could be where you're like still happy enough with how the season went probably 12th honestly okay so you you kind of want them to be pretty good okay and that's about where i would put them so yeah i think the talent level is good enough that with dennis allen still throwing heat this should be a good defense and that was kind of what i don't really care what the answer is to most of these questions.

52:20Robert Mays: That's kind of the answer I wanted at the end of this one talking about the bears. And that is the answer that I landed on. That's, that's what I like to hear. And Hey man, you know, some of Dennis Allen's best defense, they had one elite or one really good corner, one really big, good defensive end. And they had a linebacker who could cover the middle of the field. The bears do have those ingredients. I I'm not going to let you compare this version to Demario Davis. That that's, that's not something I'm going to let stand on this podcast. I'm having to stretch the truth here a little bit, but sometimes this is, it's what we're recording this June 19th.

52:53This is the perfect time to stretch the truth a little bit.

52:55Robert Mays: Again, we were just talking before we started recording about all of the hopium that fans are ingesting at this stage of the calendar. As much as I want to be different, I'm not that different. It still affects me in the same way that it affects everybody else. And I'm willing to admit that. All right. We're going to take one more quick break here and then get back with potentially our last lingering question of the series.

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55:22Robert Mays: So this one's not all that different than the conversation we just had about the Bears, just spun in a slightly different way. The entire discussion about the Atlanta Falcons, this offseason, and when it relates to the defense, the last 20 offseasons, I think, is if the Falcons get a pass rush, how good will the Falcons be? And so what I wanted to ask you and the lingering question I had about this team is, is it that simple? Is the Falcon, are the Atlanta Falcons solely a pass rush away from being a competitive defense? So when you went back and you watched them, where did you land on that? This is going to sound really, it's going to be inflammatory.

56:02I think if you believe that, that all the Falcons need is a pass rush and their defense will be fixed. I think that is one of the most delusional things a fan base could sell themselves this offseason. The rest of that defense outside of AJ Terrell and Jesse Bates is not that good. Or it's a lot of guys that we just didn't get to see last year, like Zach Harrison and stuff like that. Like, it's just, this to me is not a very inspiring defense outside of the two very, very, very good secondary players.

56:28Robert Mays: I don't, I don't know if I'm that down on it. I, I, But I think I land sort of close to where you do. Here's the thing, though. So outside of those two players, AJ Terrell and Jesse Bates, how many of these other starters would replace an average starter on an NFL defense? I don't know if it's anybody. Yeah, and you're building in like you hope that it's going to go right with a couple of the younger pieces in the secondary. Like you want Xavier Watts to win that job. We'll see what happens with their nickel corner spot. The thing to me is it's so hard to do this exercise for the Falcons specifically because projecting what they'll be with Jeff Ulbrich to me is just going to look so different than it looked last year that it's kind of hard for me to understand what the correct expectations are.

57:20Robert Mays: And to me, I think the best possible manifestation of that, like the guy who exemplifies that the most is Caden Ellis, where I like Caden Ellis when he's deployed the way that he has been over the last couple of years. So you look at the numbers, the only team that dropped the defender off the line of scrimmage more often last year per next gen stats than the Falcons was the Minnesota Vikings. like the Falcons were running a wonky defense where they're using players in kind of unconventional surprising ways. And I think Caden Ellis is the best example of that. He had almost 50 pressures as an off-ball linebacker.

57:57Robert Mays: He's a really, really good pass rusher. Okay. So if you put him in a more traditional linebacker role and listen, Jeff Ulbrich has done a plenty of stuff where they'll have those five looks, they'll have a linebacker walk down, but it's not going to be at the same clip as it was last year. So if you're going to make him play a role, that's even 30 % more traditional than what he did in the past, you're probably going to get a diminished version of him because you're not leaning enough into his strengths. So if he's not as good, then what, who else is going to be the players on this defense? Who else are going to be the players on this defense that you feel like you can really rely on?

58:33Robert Mays: And I just don't know, like you said, outside of Jesse Bates and AJ Terrell, who those guys would be. the kated ellis really is such a good way to bring this about because i think the best stuff he does well is the blitzing like you mentioned he is a really good pass rusher and not like oh he's free through the b gap and gets to hit the back like no they will fire him off the edge and he was like actually throwing moves like legitimately good good pass rusher he's also good like on on some early downs like if they know it's a rundown or maybe they're run blitzing like he will go hit a guard the problem with kate ellis to me and this goes back to the point of like being a little bit more of a standard backer.

59:08I think sometimes his like stack track fallback mechanics where he's trying to play over the defensive tackle. OK, do I need to fall back into this gap? Do I need to sprint over the top of him to get to to the right gap? It's a little bit more hit or miss, and he's probably going to be asked to do more of that in this defense. And then even the guys next to him who are going to be asked to do that, it's either going to be Divine Diablo, who they kind of paid not very much for this offseason, or Troy Anderson, who they were trying to play last year and then he got hurt and like he's also kind of a weird player and how you wanted to play him like they just it's a really funky linebacker room which it's not going to happen but this is also kind of why i wanted jalen walker to be an actual linebacker

59:45Robert Mays: but that's that's all beside the point and i think right now if you had to pick one of the off-ball linebackers that's the best physical run defender it'd probably be jd bertrand who they drafted in the fifth round last year probably he actually had some nice moments and you know even like Nate Landman had some decent moments for them last year, but those are not the guys who are going to be penciled in as starters. And the Diablo part of this to me, if he's going to actually be the guy who lines up next to Caden Ellis and you're using that as your second off ball linebacker combined with the interior players we're talking about here, that is a huge issue because I think a lot of people are going to spend time and energy focusing on the pass rush.

1:00:24Robert Mays: This team was 27th and run defense success rate last year. And even if Jalen Walker or James Pierce become good players for you or Leonard Floyd gives you something, none of those guys I think are going to meaningfully improve your run defense. And now I think you're putting your linebackers in positions where them, their improved, their like path to improvement as run defenders requires them to be more instinctual, traditional players. And I'm just not sure that's leaning into their strengths. So I don't think it's like a disaster by any stretch. I just think that this idea of if the pass rush is good, this can be like an average to slightly above average defense.

1:01:02Robert Mays: I'm not sure I'm ready to go there quite that fast. And it's not even just run defense for the backers, right? It's it's coverage. Like, think about some of Ulbricht's best stuff when he was with the Jets, him and Sala at CJ Mosley at his peak was a really good coverage linebacker. And then Quincy Williams is not a good like get depth and cover kind of coverage backer. but chasing anything in front of him he is awesome I don't know if either of these Falcons linebackers really give you any of that like I don't know who the like in this scenario are you going to ask Kate and Ellis to do some of the stuff that you were asking Mosley to do I don't know if I like that and I don't think Diablo can do that either Diablo can probably do some of the run and chase stuff but he's not going to do it nearly as well as Quincy Williams was doing it so it's just like I this part of the defense in particular gives me a lot of issues especially when again the defensive tackle is playing in front of them they really need like ruka roro to take a massive massive step for this to be any type of functional and they have drafted guys right like they drafted brandon dorlis in the fourth round they still have uh brayden braylon trice who they drafted and those are some of the like bigger bodied interior players you know when we talked about the guys they added this offseason it was a lot of lighter bodies but they do have bigger bodied defensive linemen that they drafted a year ago that are going to be in the mix but we haven't seen those guys take the steps or impact the game in the way that they probably need to.

1:02:22Robert Mays: So looking at the numbers from last year, okay, this team finished bottom five in pressure rate when bringing four, and they finished 31st in pressure rate when bringing five. In this hypothetical, let's say that with Leonard Floyd, James Pierce, Jalen Walker, and even that, it's like, we're relying on two rookies here. Like who knows how that's going to go, but like, let's, let, let's spin this in a positive way. Let's, let's choose to take the rosy outlook here and say that that 31st in pressure rate would bring five or just overall, let's say this team finishes 16th in pressure rate. What do you, and 16th in sacks, because that's another thing with this team.

1:03:00Robert Mays: It's not about pressure rate. Like the, the lack of sacks for the Atlanta Falcons dating back like 20 years is alarming. So let's say in both sacks and pressure rate, they finished dead, even middle of the road. What do you think? Where do you think the defense finishes overall like 21st like I just it's it's even with that like I just because because that's the other thing with guys like Walker and Walker is a good run defender for his size but he's not that big and then James Pierce is not a run defender at all and like Arnold Abikati who is going to be your other defensive end is not a run defender at all and I know again they have guys like Trice who can maybe do that on early downs maybe Zach Harrison and stuff like that but i just if in that scenario where maybe they're an average pass rush maybe that does allow aj terrell and jesse bates to just go full superman mode and they really really do they're the the the kind of pivot points for like a really good secondary maybe that's possible but to me it just feels more likely that even with a good pass rush the run defense is still a problem which bleeds into them not being in as many down and distances for the pass rush to even matter the way that you want it to matter in that sort of domino effect.

1:04:11Robert Mays: Yeah, I think that you, again, you have more explosive pass rush bodies overall on this roster, but I still don't think you have a lot of oomph in this defense period. And so I think that there's just not going to be a lot of pushing people around, especially in the run game. And so that's a weakness that I don't think has been discussed that much because people have spent so much time focusing on the pass rush. And let me kind of twist the question a little bit to, for them to get to average, how good do one of James Pierce or Jalen Walker have to be? Jalen Walker has to be Micah Parsons. Like I think that's essentially what has to happen.

1:04:43They have to have like the Jared verse type season from last year for, for them to get to this level. And even then, like the Rams pass rush wasn't that insane.

1:04:52Robert Mays: And I think that the, again, the positive outlook here and like the best way this could work out is, and this is part of like my weird inability to kind of understand what this team is even supposed to be based on like the front structures and like the types of bodies they have, because you live in a very different world than Jeff Ulbrich has ever lived in. But he has said that they're going to be a little bit more multiple than they've been in years past, which I know every defensive coordinator says. I think that's at least interesting based on the very divergent schemes that we're talking about with last year's Falcons and what Jeff Ulbrich has been.

1:05:24Robert Mays: So I'm curious just about like, what does it look like? Like, what does the defensive line rotation look like? How are these guys deployed? Like in the best case scenario is Zach Harrison, like diet John Franklin Myers. And if you have that combined with some of the other pass rush bodies and a Roku Aroros takes a step forward, like, is that enough to get you there in the aggregate where it can be a good unit? I'm not ruling that out. I just think there are so many balls in the air here and so many unknowns that it's really hard to predict. And that's possible, right? Cause honestly, looking at the jets, uh, you know, roster like there are some similarities like Harrison and Trice and Dorliss can kind of be your John Franklin Myers Jermaine Johnson types where they're more your early down like bigger longer style guys and then instead of Bryce Huff and Will McDonald maybe it can be your Jalen Walker James Pierce so like it's I can kind of see it but yeah compared to what they were doing last year with dropping so many guys and like Matt Judon was like yeah no shit I had a bad year last year past rushing the passer they didn't let me do it and like that's what complicates this too because with Walker, I think you do still want to do some of that stuff.

1:06:33Like that's the point of drafting a player like this. Like it's just, I really don't know how it's supposed to all come together for them in terms of the look of it.

1:06:41Robert Mays: And I think we've spent a lot of time talking about the front and all the questions about that, which I think are legitimate, especially with the run defense, even if the pass rush ends up being good. But you look at the secondary and it's like, I, what's the best case scenario here? Like, I think in order to be an above average secondary, you need Watts to come in and be like a good player right away. because the other guys like D Alford and Mike Hughes, you're just kind of hanging on at those spots. I think that they were fine last year, but I don't think it's anything to get overly excited about.

1:07:11Robert Mays: And even like, all right, let's say Billy Bowman beats out D Alford for the nickel spot. Now you have another rookie in there. So I think the ceiling with the secondary is also something that you need to talk about here because it feels fairly limited outside of like gangbusters results from your two rookies that you drafted and that's probably a lower percentage chance of happening right just based purely on where they were drafted like regardless of whatever we think of these players okay james pearson jalen walker first round pick so probably higher percentage chance they're going to be good watson bowman or third and fourth round picks like the percentage chance that they are immediate guys who are going to be players for you is it's probably pretty low and like i mean i guess if they can get to like even just moderately below average which I think would be a little bit better than we got from Mike Hughes and D 'Alfred last year.

1:07:58Like maybe that is enough to let AJ Terrell and Jesse Bates do what they're going to do. But even that, I just you're probably not getting both of them to play at that level. And then there's even the chance to like. I don't know, man, like even if you get Watts to play well, and even if you get Bowman to step in for the nickel, your other outside corner is still Mike Hughes or Mike Ford. Like even in the best case scenario, you still have an obvious player to pick on. That seems like a problem.

1:08:25Robert Mays: I think Mike Hughes is acceptable if everything else is going well. And I think that's the question is whether everything else is going to be going well. That's a good point. I probably have a little bit more concerns there in the sense of like, if he is the worst player on your defense, I agree with that. I think if he's just the worst player in your secondary, I have some more questions because the rest of the front is not that good. Clark Phillips is an interesting one. Like he had some rough moments last year. He's never just really found his role within that defense. Everyone expected him to be a nickel.

1:08:55Robert Mays: They never really used him in that role. He was a backup outside corner. He had some pretty bad lowlights at times last year, but I still think he has some talent. It's just a strange group. Like it just, I, again, I don't know how any of it's going to shake out. And I think one of the reasons I'm at least open to the idea that they're better than we expect is that there are so many moving parts here. There are so many young players in the mix. There are highly drafted young players in the mix at the front. We have a new defensive coordinator with a new scheme coming in. Like I'm open to the idea that this can be really surprising and then this can be the 14th best defense in the league.

1:09:31Robert Mays: But there are just so many things that have to come together for that to happen. That's the thing. There's just too many dominoes that need to fall for them to even be like above average, let alone any sort of like serious good. And like, again, there's a chance that maybe all of their young guys, even the early draft picks, I think this year you could tell me that they could have a decent year. I'm more concerned about like, what are we going to get from Zach Harrison, Brandon Dorlis, Braylon Trice, the other guys that you've already drafted who have been in the building who haven't done anything.

1:10:02Those are to me like the bigger questions, even like that needs to happen. Yeah, that absolutely needs to happen for them to be any sort of good.

1:10:10Robert Mays: this team it's all about can you get the defense to a passable level and can the offense be one of the better offenses in the league and guess what at some point over the next couple weeks we're going to do a show about the second year quarterbacks and talk about michael penix in order to give you the other half of what could potentially happen with the atlanta falcons but that is another conversation for another day for now that is all we've got we'll be back on monday with our next mailbag. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you very soon.

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