NFC QB supporting cast rankings

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1:32Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's NFC Supporting Cast Day. We did the AFC last week. Me and Derek Klassen were digging into the NFC today. We did this exercise last offseason. I really enjoyed it. Wanted to bring it back. If you did not listen to the AFC show, I just want to very quickly run through the methodology for this. So the way that we're talking about supporting casts and trying to build these rankings, taking into account a few different factors. first one first bucket just kind of calling it play caller slash infrastructure who is your offensive play caller and just what does the ecosystem for that offense look like is this a group that's consistently maximizing its talent that point i think is an important one to consider for this show specifically because there are a lot of teams in the nfc a few at least that have really really good personnel but a new play caller and i think me and derek treated that slightly different you guys will hear what i'm talking about as you listen to the show second bucket pass catchers pretty simple right what does your wide receiver and tight end group look like you can throw running backs in there a little bit if you have a guy that you feel like is a plus receiver and really adds to the passing game but that one's pretty simple to understand and then the last one offensive line and with offensive line i think you can put run game in there as well like a team like the panthers their offensive line part of the value is realized when they can kind of click in and run the ball on their terms because of how the offensive line is built.

2:55Robert Mays: And even if that quarterback isn't directly related to that, the ability to rely on the run game does make a quarterback's life easier in a bunch of different ways. So those are the three main buckets. That is how me and Derek tried to come up with this list. The NFC was really difficult. Like it's, it's a better group than the NFC is. So we're going to have teams at the back half of this that neither of us feel good about. And yeah, I think you guys will enjoy the conversation we had about the top five. There are enough differences on this list where there are some fun little points of tension.

3:24Robert Mays: I'm excited for you guys to check that out. So let's get to that conversation I had with Derek right now.

3:34Robert Mays: All right, Derek, we are back to rank some supporting casts. We did the AFC last week. We're doing the NFC today. The AFC and just the makeup of the AFC is just so different than this group. Like the teams I have at the back half of this, I don't think have bad infrastructures or supporting cast. I just feel like the group overall top to bottom is so solid that somebody has to be at the back end. That being said, there's a lot of interesting stuff to chew on when it comes to some of the turnover at play caller in the middle of this group. Like this was difficult. There are going to be some ones here that I already know I'm too low on, but I just don't know what else to do with them.

4:13Robert Mays: and some others that maybe I'm giving them more of the benefit of the doubt than they probably deserve at this stage. So I think I'm probably more excited for this one than the AFC one, just because the infrastructures are kind of what lift this conference compared to the AFC where it's a little bit more quarterback driven. I think the best way to describe the difference in my experience, putting together these two lists is the AFC. There were a couple of teams like the Colts, for example, where I was like, man, I ended up higher on them than I thought I was going to. And there are like three teams on this list where I was like, man, I ended up lower on them than I thought I was going to just by virtue of like, I didn't want to move other teams any further down.

4:49Robert Mays: I will say with this group, I think it was easier for me to find tears in between the groups where in the AFC, I think it was a little bit more muddled than that with this group. I feel like I have kind of, I was going to say three distinctive tears. I'm not sure if that's exactly right. It might be more than that, but I feel like I was better able to kind of group them and then just reshuffle them within the group in the afc i couldn't even do that it was like i think this is just the general arc of where i want to go with this i i kind of feel the same way around like eight or nine i have a cut i do still think that like everything from like four to like 12 ish is like somewhat muddled but i do think that there's a cut off around eight or nine i mean not in terms of like not within each other i that's why i'm saying like around eight or nine i have like a slightly different cutoff but even like a team that i have never mind i don't want to spoil the list we'll get to it all right let's just get into it because there's so much to dig into here i'm fascinated by your answer to this we're starting at 16 we're going to one i explained the methodology in the intro again this is a combination in an unscientific way of your play caller slash offensive infrastructure ecosystem the pass catchers you're bringing to the table in the offensive line which i think both the pass catchers in the offensive line depending on the team you can include the running backs as part of that run game health what sort of pass catchers are you running back all those considerations so who did you have at 16 so actually to me this is the easiest part of the list I think it's the New York Giants and it's not close okay I had the Giants at 50 so I definitely have them in the back half this kind of shocked me and I think it's just a combination of a lot of questions in the pass catchers like two through five, a play caller that we've seen do it twice, but in kind of unique circumstances.

6:46Robert Mays: And then the offensive line, well, I think they're going to be better. The personnel is not very good or mostly question marks. I had the Seahawks at 16. Oh, okay. I had the Seahawks slightly above, but I don't really blame you for having them that low. And that kind of speaks to some of the concerns that I've had for a lot of the season with the Seahawks. I had them slightly higher though. So here's what I'll say about the tiering again. I think 16 through 13, like those four teams that we're going to talk about and the Giants are in there and there are a couple other teams in there. You can do whatever you want in that tier.

7:16Robert Mays: But I think with the Seahawks specifically for me, it was just, again, there's a lot of question marks like JSN, I think is obviously an ascending player, but now we're getting this version of Cooper cup who knows what Arroyo is going to give them. MVS is their number three receiver. The offensive line, again, crosses a good player. I think that was kind of the tiebreaker for me with the Giants and the Seahawks is that at least Andrew Thomas is on the Giants. Like they have one truly elite offensive lineman. And even the guys on the Seahawks are the Giants offensive line. Other than that, I feel like there are less question marks.

7:50Robert Mays: The ceiling is very low for a lot of these players. Illuminor, Van Roten, even a guy like Runyon. But I still feel like there's a little bit more certainty with that group than there is with the Seahawks group. neighbors, I think is as intriguing of a number one option as JSN is. And I'm not sure the second, third and fourth receivers for the giants are any worse than they are for the Seahawks. And I, Brian Dable, this is going to be, we'll have this conversation about Dable, but I think again, there's a little bit more built in equity for what Dable has been as a play caller than somebody like Clint Kubiak who had some nice flashes last year, but I don't want to overrate these two games at the beginning of the season.

8:28Robert Mays: When you look at the body of work overall, all. I think he's solid. I'm not sure he's a savior. So I think the offensive line depth, like the number one offensive line for each of those teams, plus the certainty about the depth with the Giants and the Seahawks. And then again, like the second and third pass catchers, I kind of feel a little bit better about the Giants ones that I do about the Seahawks one. So that's why I landed here. You're, you're definitely selling me that it's at least like closer than I thought it was going to be in my mind. Cause like you said, neighbors, if I was had to pick one skill player from any of these teams, it's pretty obviously Malik neighbors.

8:59And if I had to pick one offensive lineman from any of this team it's obviously going to be Andrew Thomas assuming that he's healthy I guess I just sold myself on the ceiling for the Seahawks line a little bit better just because like if Zabel hits and then if Lucas stays healthy like maybe that and then I also as far as the pass catchers I actually do feel a bit better about like two through five for for the Seahawks that they are at least better floor players than some of the ones that I'm going to get from the Giants like I do like Darius Slayton but I like that they have so many options at tight ends.

9:30I think Kenneth Walker can be better in a new system. Like I, yeah, the running backs are definitely, yeah, I think the running backs and like the, the ceiling

9:37Robert Mays: of Kenneth Walker, I think is good. I, that's what I think. That's a good way to frame it. The ceiling case for the Seahawks is much easier to make. I just think that there's so much projection involved in that, but I just don't know if I feel comfortable making it. And I think the uncertainty is probably what slid them in there for me. I was shocked when I did it, but again, I just think that there's a little bit more than I can rely on with the Giants, even if it's not exciting. And the dayball part of this, I'm curious where you sit with him right now, because I think if we did this two years ago in the offseason, we would look at him as a play caller and say, this is like a definitive positive.

10:11Robert Mays: Like he's lifting that group around him that what they did in 2022, depending on how this season goes, that's going to be lost to history. Like his coach of the year award is going to be like the Matt Nagy coach of the year award or some others that we've had. But in reality, it was a really impressive job what they did with that offense. But I feel like they're a floor lifter, but the ceiling becomes a question. Like they were able to do this weird thing with this strange collection of players and get the most out of them. But when they've had to apply these more general ideas to the offense, they've struggled to break through with that.

10:44Robert Mays: And I honestly think you can apply a similar sort of thinking to what it was like in Buffalo. Like what they did in Buffalo was extremely impressive, but it was also unique. And so without that sort of muse that that group of players and the quarterback were, I just think that he's had these really impressive kind of inspired moments with weird collections of players. But as you try to take it to a more general level, they just haven't been able to quite figure out what they want to be and what they want to be good at. and that's why I struggle with this version of the roster is that they don't have any of the things that he was doing either in Buffalo or what he did in that 2022 season with with Daniel Jones where like obviously with the Bills it was Josh Allen being incredibly talented and a really good runner that is obviously not the case and then with the Giants the one year with Daniel Jones it was because the quarterback was a very good mobile threat and honestly the health of the run game was decent because Saquon Barkley was still there and he was still incredible I don't think any of that really exists with this current iteration of it.

11:41And that's why I struggle to see them really reaching that high of a ceiling beyond Malik neighbors is like the best wide receiver in football, which like I'll leave the door open for that. But that it's if that's the only thing I'm betting on here, I don't feel that good about it.

11:56Robert Mays: I think if you're trying to talk yourself into it, it's the fact that Darius Slayton was just not in a position where the quarterback was going to find Darius Slayton with any sort of regularity in the old version of this offense. Did you see what he said this week at minicamp? No, he was talking about the offense and he's like, there are times last year where you'd run a deep route or you just wouldn't even be a consideration. And now like if Russ sees the safety drop down, he's going to try to get you the ball. And that's the only consideration. Exactly. It's the only consideration. And so that's, that's a spin where that sounds really good on June 15th.

12:25Robert Mays: And if you're a Giants fan, you're just like, Oh, bombs away. And then you realize that's the only thing the offense will be able to do. And I was going to say with any sort of consistency, it's not going to be consistent. It'll just be the only thing the offense is able to do. So I think that there's a chance some of the skill position players get unlocked in a way that they weren't with Daniel Jones. But I'm with you that I think overall I'm still fairly skeptical of what this group can look like even in the best case scenario. Yeah, I completely agree with that. And I will say like maybe I'm being a little bit unfair because part of my thing here is like it's hard for me to remove the quarterback specifically from this situation because it's going to be so bad.

13:02So maybe I bumped them down one or two spots for that, but it's, it's overall hard for me to see a very good outcome.

13:08Robert Mays: I also think that you're a little bit relatively more down on the offensive line than I might be. And that's, I don't even think I'm like super high on them. I think that they're probably like the 22nd or 23rd best offensive line in the league if things break. Right. And I just think that's a tough place to start. Like when you're shooting for slightly below average, if you stay healthy, I just think it's hard to get excited about that. this group outside of Andrew Thomas, who's obviously an elite player, the rest of the group, it reminds me a little bit of how I felt about like the Bears offensive line heading into last season where you look at it and say, this is acceptable.

13:43Robert Mays: Like there aren't that many glaring holes that you can get by at all these spots. And if that's the starting point, you can only go down from there. And I think that's why it gets a little bit frightening. If we're trying to contextualize it, the group was so much better, especially when Thomas was playing that it wasn't 2023. that I feel like it's caused us to get a little bit ahead of ourselves or Giants fans a little bit ahead of themselves when trying to actually figure out what the quality of the group looks like in a vacuum, not just comparing it to the catastrophe it was two years ago. Yeah, I guess for me, it's like I can see the world where they are decent.

14:18But to me, if I were to say that every single NFC offensive line was going to get their 75th percentile outcome, I still think the Giants probably have the worst offensive line of that bunch.

14:30Robert Mays: oh really you think you think the young players and the projection for the young players the Seahawks is enough to get them ahead of the Giants for you if you're doing it that way it's at least like it would probably be like a tie for me what about the Cardinals well we'll get to them they're they're probably around the same mark because I really do have a lot of questions about them as well but those are probably the bottom three is the Cardinals the Seahawks and the Giants. Like assuming everyone gets like a 75th percentile outcome. It's actually you saying that I was kind of like, really? Come on now.

15:05Robert Mays: But then you look at the rest of the offensive lines. And in terms of what we've seen, the Saints are obviously still a question, but there's a lot of potential talent among that group. So the 75th percentile outcome thing, I actually think is a good way to look at it. And if you're doing it that way, the Giants still probably are in the bottom three. And I would say the Cardinals and the Seahawks are the other two teams in there. All right. So I had the Seahawks at 16. I had the Giants at 15. You had the Giants at 16. Who was your 15th team? I really waffled before between 14 and 15 here, but I think I actually will put the Seahawks.

15:36I did have one other team that I think when I made my initial list would have been at 15, but I think what we've talked about, like I probably was slightly overrating the ceiling for this group. The more we talk about it,

15:48Robert Mays: I think there's a world where they're good. Like, I think that world can exist. If a Royal can give them something, If Cooper cup can have like one last, like, all right, let me tap into the fountain of youth a little bit. I can still be a reliable player. I really like JSN. And again, I think with the offensive line, there's a case to be made that even some of the things that look like holes right now, or we're not positions of strength the last year can be much better in different circumstances. Like you look at center and right guard and the fact that you're bringing the same guys back with those two groups.

16:20Robert Mays: I think that although Timmy showed enough to deserve this opportunity. and I think you have young guys who were just dropped into an abhorrent situation last year it's hard to know what they are and so you hope if you can get like acceptable play from Haynes or whoever wins that job and Ola with Timmy those flashes you saw in a better situation he can turn into a reliable player and then you get the high-end outcomes with the first first round left guard with the left tackle and with Abe Lucas staying healthy like that that's there to happen but at the same time that's not a guarantee like who knows what about we're going that exactly that's like seven different dominoes and like one of them is is an old receiver and then a lot of it is like young and injured offensive lineman at least in the case of Lucas and like again I think I don't I like Kubiak and I think that he can be nice it's just like I it's even if everything goes right it's hard for me to see what the ceiling is like if we were if they hit a pretty good outcome for them like what is the highest that they would reasonably would be on this list like ninth like in the best outcome for them yeah it's probably still not that good that's kind of I think that's right with them I think that's right and then you say that and I'm sure some people would scoff at that but then you're you're gonna hear the teams that we have like ninth and tenth and they're good I think it's gonna kind of snap into reality like why that's not a misguided thing to say and so I think I'm with you on that the Kubiak conversation is an interesting one like obviously what they looked like over the first couple games last year New was excellent.

17:51Robert Mays: I think it's difficult to extricate what the offense looks like for a vast majority of the season with the fact that they collapsed, like the amount of injuries and what they were working with. Like it's really, really difficult to look good in those circumstances. And I still think overall it was better than it probably had any right to be considering what he was working with. But I just don't know if I'm ready to definitively say like this guy is a difference maker in a positive way. And I feel really, really good about that. I just don't know if I'm there yet. And also one quirk with like what he was doing with the Saints and what he might be dealing with with the Seahawks is like part of what he was doing really well with the Saints when the receivers were healthy is that he was using their speed very well in terms of Olaving and Rashid Shahid.

18:35This Seahawks pass catcher group is slow. Like the fastest guy is probably MBS and the only thing he's going to do is run straight. And even that, I don't think he's like that fast. He's kind of just a bigger body. So I do wonder like how he's going to be able to construct the offense without the same kind of speed that he had in New Orleans.

18:53Robert Mays: Yeah, I think there's a chance that the Seahawks offense is like a solid group because I do think that we've seen what happens when Darnold can get hot. I think the running game could potentially be pretty good if that's just better constructed overall. But I'm with you in that. I just don't know, even if we're way, way off here, how high they would even rank in an exercise like this. And I think that's why you feel a little bit comfortable putting them further down the list. All right. So that's the Seahawks and the Giants at 16 and 15 in some order for both of us. Again, this tier is pretty much jumbled together for me.

19:25Robert Mays: So who did you have at 14? I really thought going in that I was going to have this team higher, but I didn't. It's the Carolina Panthers. I had them at 13. Yeah, I just didn't it feel like based off the vibes from last year, you were going to come into this list and be like, oh, they'll probably be closer to the middle of the pack. But then you list them out and it's like, OK, I really like the run blocking offensive line. I think Chuba Hubbard had a really nice season last year and I liked drafting Tett McMillan. But so much else about it kind of gives me question marks. Like, what are we going to get from Xavier Liget in year two?

19:57How much does Steelen still have? Like, is Koka really going to take the step that people want? I don't think any of the tight ends are that exciting. And then even the offensive line, they were kind of good last year by virtue of getting into good down and distances through the run game. and like their play action game was decent as a pure pass protecting unit. They're like probably below average. Like I don't think the tackles are that good as pure pass protectors. And so that was kind of where I ended up dropping them. That's not what they do well. And even the guards, exactly.

20:25Robert Mays: Think about the selling point with both guards. It's more about, you know, pocket sturdiness and run blocking than it is about being pure pass protectors. And so I'm with you on that. I think that the Panthers are kind of in a similar mold to the way that we talk about the Giants, where the offensive line was so much better last year that I think it's important to remove yourself from that improvement and just try to look at them in a vacuum or kind of remove from that level of consideration. So I'm in the same place with the offensive line. I think it's a good group, but it's a better run blocking group than a pass blocking group.

20:54Robert Mays: And the fact that they can lean in and rely on the run game, I do think should be part of this conversation. Like that is a way to protect your quarterback, but I think that's the best application along of the offensive line pass catchers. I'm right there with you. Like there's a, it's all projection with McMillan at this point. You'd hope that he steps in and he's everything you need him to be. And I actually think one of the more intriguing parts of that is that if he is that guy, if he is like your ex receiver, that is the role he plays. He's the number one option. Then Leggett is able to step into a role that's actually more conducive to his skillset.

21:28Robert Mays: So I think there's a chance that bringing McMillan in makes you better at multiple spots. So I think that it's not hard to make that argument. The last part of this for me is the Canelo's part. of it. When you were considering him as part of something like this, were you more or less enthusiastic than you expected to be coming into the rankings? I think I ultimately just ended up treating him as like a neutral factor, to be honest. Like, I obviously think that I really liked what he did in Tampa Bay and I liked some of what he was able to do in Carolina, but he didn't move me the way that I think a lot of offensive coordinators a little bit higher on the list did and maybe that's the difference between me putting them at 14 as opposed to potentially 12 like if I still felt like a really high degree of enthusiasm about him maybe I would move him higher but I think part of it too is like it's tainted by like Liam Cohen doing a significantly better job than him and the job that he had just left and so I think that's that's kind of where I ended up but I think there are a lot of offensive play callers on this group higher than the Panthers on this list that are probably a step up from him and I think that's part of it You look back at it.

22:35Robert Mays: Where do you think the Bucks ranked in weighted offensive DVOA in 2023? When Canales was a play car. Like 15th? 18th. Okay. And, you know, there's some personnel thoughts there. They didn't have Graham Barton yet. Cody Mock is in year one. I think Gadecki absolutely took a step last year. But they got significantly better play out of every single member of that offense. And to me, one of the considerations here, as you're thinking holistically about being the architect of an offense. I think what Canales does in the pass game is impressive. I've always enjoyed it. I think the pass game designs are very good.

23:09Robert Mays: I think they're exciting. I liked watching that passing game last year. We talk about the Panthers' offensive line and the fact that the run game is where they should really thrive and succeed. They were 15th in rushing DBA last year. Like, this isn't an elite running team, despite the fact that they probably have the personnel to do it. And if you look at the construction of their run game, and then you look at the huge gains and strides the Bucks run game made this year. I think it's worthwhile to point out that it might be a little bit of a blind spot for Canales and for the staff, the majority of which he brought with him to Carolina from Tampa Bay.

23:43Yeah. Even for the Panthers run game being decent last year, a lot of it is like they paid for it to be good, right? Like it's a lot of first round picks. It's a lot of money and free agency and all that stuff. But like even yet to the point of like contrasting with Cohen like Cohen has one of the most diverse run games in the NFL already whereas I just you don't get as much of that from from Canales even if it was like well coached and like they were running it all fairly well and I do think like part of the DVO I think is I think if they had a little bit better talent at running back that could be higher but also like they don't this year the reality is it's the same guys as last year who are you talking about Carolina yeah

24:21Robert Mays: Yeah, I think Shuba Hubbard's a pretty good player. I think he's fine, but he's not. It's not like a lot of some of the other running backs higher on this list where they are like obvious difference makers to me. I think that's fair. To me, it's more about I think the run game design leaves something to be desired there compared to the running back talent. I think that's my biggest issue with that group. But again, that speaks to Canales and what sort of influence we're talking about here as we weigh him compared to some of the other play callers. All right. So I had the Panthers at 13. You had them at 14.

24:49Robert Mays: And I had a tier of four teams at the bottom. The Panthers are one of them. My team at 14. Again, I think you could have put them at 13. I think you could have probably moved them even back further a little bit. I had the Saints. Okay. I have them pretty close to this, but I. I feel bad about it, but there is some part of me that is like mildly optimistic about some of the stuff that they have, to be honest. I honestly think there are a lot of the arguments and a lot of the conversations we had about the Seahawks where you're trying to project a little bit and you're trying to figure out what the ceiling is, you can make the same arguments for the saints.

25:24Robert Mays: And I think you could make them more enthusiastically. Like, I think it's easier to make them, but at the same time, I'm, there's a lot of this list here for me. That's wait and C mode. Like when I haven't seen it in practice at all new play callers, a lot of, you know, switching out component pieces along the offensive line, And I'm kind of hesitant here to just write it in as a good thing. When we have all this change, that's going to be like a through line for my entire rankings. So even if I think you can make the case for the saints being better than this, I just think there's so many unknown components that it's hard for me to feel good about putting them in a different tier of teams.

26:04I think that's fair, especially like with the injury stuff, like how many games of, of Olave are we even going to get? Shahid is coming up a year where he wasn't very healthy. Kamara is, I mean, he was quietly fantastic last year, but he's a running back who's getting a little bit older. So that always has a little bit of of an issue. But I think kind of to your point, like. The ceiling for this group, I think, is actually really good. Like if Olave does play most of the season, if Shahid plays most of the season and if Kamara can do 85 percent, 90 percent of what he did last year, that's a pretty dang good top three skill player group.

26:37And even Juwan Johnson to tight end is like pretty useful. And then to me, I think I am looking at their offensive line through like some rose colored glasses because I really like the Banks pick. I think Fuwaga played well and I think him moving back to right tackle is going to be good. But like, I don't know, man. Put that many big people on an offensive line and I'm probably going to get excited about it.

26:55Robert Mays: I'm just laughing because this is the most predictable thing of all time. Like I just, you like looking at the Saints here and just being like wheels up, baby. Like full speed ahead. I believe in this. It's just, it's so not surprising knowing how you felt about Calvin Banks. I just think again, there's a lot of unknown and a lot of projection with that offensive line. You have a rookie left tackle. No matter how optimistic you are about that rookie left tackle, it's still a rookie left tackle. You have a right tackle who's swapping sides, okay? Even if that is his natural position, you're throwing a slight wrench into his development plan there.

27:28Robert Mays: How's that going to go? You have a failed tackle moving to guard. In theory, he should be better there than he was a tackle, but who knows if that's going to be the case. And the other part of this with the offensive line, the Kellen Moore aspect of this to me is potentially confusing depending on how you want to look at Kellen Moore. He was just the offensive play call for a Superbowl team, but that is the most talented team in the NFL top to bottom talent wise. We're going to get to them here in a second. And I also think that when you look at what he was in LA, and then you consider the differences between the charger stint and the Eagle stint, the run game was a consistent problem in LA, a consistent problem.

28:06Robert Mays: They were awful. well who's in Philadelphia overseeing the run game Jeff Stalin's not walking through that door in New Orleans baby and so I think even if Kellen Moore has done a solid job some of the blind spots we've seen from him in the past if that carries over when you don't have Jeff Stalin and Saquon Barkley does that kind of shift how we're seeing Kellen Moore as a play caller so I think again there's just a little bit more uncertainty here than it would seem at first glance considering how long we've been attuned to Kellen Moore in the NFL. That's probably fair. I treated Kellen Moore almost in the same way like I did Canales, where he's more of a neutral factor to me than anything.

28:46And I guess for me, I was just making the bet that the offensive line will be good. And even though it's an even dumber bet than that, that the skill players will stay healthy, which that to me is, I don't know why that's the bet that I've chosen to make here, but it is the one I'm going with.

29:00Robert Mays: And I think that's a really good way to kind of put a bow on this. You treated Moore as a neutral. You treated the pass catchers as a positive and the O-line as a positive. I treated more as a neutral. The pass catchers as maybe more likely positive than the O-line, but still a question. And I treated the O-line just as one huge, big question mark. So I think that's why I have the Saints a little bit lower than you would. How many spots higher did you have them? Like, do we have to go a while before we get to the Saints? No, I had them at 12. So, I mean, okay. All right, good. Okay. Okay. All right.

29:31Robert Mays: So throwing off the flow of the show that badly. Okay. So you had the saints at 12, you had the Panthers at 14. So who is the team you had at 13? This is also what I thought I was going to be higher on, but for me, it's the Washington commanders. This is so incredibly disrespectful. This roster is not that good, man. All right, let's go through this. Okay. That's fine. I think spoiler alert. I heard you and Beller when I walked away before talking about this, in my headphones before we started recording. My knee-jerk reaction to this is that your concerns about some of the plateauing of the talent in other areas of the roster, mostly the defense, is creeping in to your overall pessimism and skepticism when it comes to what the entire team can be.

30:20Robert Mays: Because the offensive line is not what it was last year, and the pass-catching group is the same as it was last year with Debo in there. And even if Debo's a question, whatever, But and what Cliff in that group did, this was like a top four offense by every available metric. Was that all Jaden Daniels? The more I watch them, I kind of do feel that way, truthfully. And like Cliff, Cliff, I do think did a good job. I want to be clear about that. I am also at the point with Cliff where I'm like, do it again. Like I with him, I want to see it multiple times over before I can really buy into it. And then the offensive line.

30:56Look, I understand that they brought in Tunsil and that's going to be huge for them. And I really liked Josh Connerly. in the draft. And I think that that could be at some point nice to them. I don't know if it'll be this year, but I do think he'll be a good player. But also like Sam Cosme is what the hell are we going to get from Sam Cosme this year? He tore his ACL like three months ago. And so I think the Tunsil addition is like slightly offset by not having Cosme, at least for parts of the season. And then outside of the Debo thing, they didn't really do a whole lot. Like you're betting on development from Luke McCaffrey, who got snaps early last year, and then they took them away from him um deami brown is no longer in the building and then the running back group is like they're fine innings eaters but they don't really add any sort of explosive element to the offense and so i really do think the more i look at the roster the more i watch what they did last year i just appreciated what jayden daniels was able to do i also appreciate what jayden daniels was able to do but i think we're understating the importance and the effect of some of the

31:58Robert Mays: infrastructure considerations, like what this offense does with tempo, what they were able to do, lifting the offensive line talent period. Like, so just I had Washington at eight. So this is going to be the team that we're furthest away on. And I think you looking at it and saying, Hey, Cliff is, I want to see it again. I'm not ready to just say we can rely on this. It's going to be the exact same thing. I'm fine with that. But I also think that you really have to account for how good he was last year. The only time we've seen him as an offensive coordinator solely. Like the ability of that group to lift every single player on that offensive roster.

32:38Robert Mays: Is there a chance that they get figured out and don't do it again? Maybe, but I just saw him do it. And there's so many other question marks with a lot of these teams that I think are a much bigger consideration on the play calling side than is Cliff Kingsbury able to do this again. This is a top five offense last year by every available metric. I think the quarterback is good, but I think there's some other things going on here that are elevating this group. I probably am underrating the Cliff factor a little bit. I just, I think part of it, and even though Cliff did some other good things in terms of protecting the offensive line, I think some of their run game stuff was really good, which that part has always been true of Cliff.

33:15His run game has always been very good. But with the tempo stuff, I feel like once every few years, there is a play caller who like has an insane year in part because of tempo. And then we just don't see it again. Like we did this with Chip Kelly a decade ago.

33:30Robert Mays: It's so funny that you say this because I almost put that in my notes where did they sneak up on everybody? And is this going to be a situation where they fall back to earth a little bit? It's a really good point to bring up, but I'm just tempted to give him the benefit of the doubt after how last year went. Like that's where I'm landing on this, even if I understand landing on the other side of it. And I'm kind of, I like, I don't blame you for buying it either. because like Cliff really did have a very good year as a play caller. I just there's something about it that I just want to see it again.

34:00And this truthfully could be partly like just like a visuals and style type of thing. Like, I just don't love the style of offense that they run. And that honestly might be part of my apprehension here. But I don't know. I just I really the more I looked at what their roster was, I think a lot of it was some good luck in certain ways in terms of situational football. And then Jaden Daniels just kind of covering up a lot of the holes for this roster.

34:24Robert Mays: we're on the exact same page of the pass catchers, by the way, like this is, we're on the brink of disaster. If this doesn't go right, Noah Brown's already hurt. No, he was already carted off. And then think about what we were talking about with Zach Ertz last year, where we were like, man, does he really have anything left? And now it's another year and he played fairly well last year, but like, it's another year of him, him getting older. Like I just, well, you're just discounting the Senate breakout. That's inevitable. At this point, he apparently has looked good at a mini camp, whatever that was worth.

34:52I mean, for whatever that's worth.

34:55Robert Mays: The offensive line, I think, is we differ the most on our framing of Cliff in all of this and what sort of influence positively or negatively he is. The offensive line, I think we're also fairly far away on here. The Cosme point is a really good one to bring it up. And I probably wasn't thinking about it enough when I was thinking about this group. I was more looking at the depth chart on paper. So I'm choosing to believe he's going to be back relatively early because that's the story that I'm telling myself in my head. in part because I'm actually really excited about the offensive line. I think Brandon Coleman is really talented.

35:26Robert Mays: I think moving him inside the guard where that power can really take over, I'm excited to see that. Laramie Tunsil is a really good player. We'll see what happens with Cosme. And Connerly, you know, if you, like with the Saints, for example, like I think the Saints are probably hoping that Kelvin Banks is their best offensive lineman or their second best offensive lineman when this all shakes out. I think Washington is probably hoping that Josh Connerly is like their third or fourth best offensive lineman. And that's why the degree to which they're relying on a rookie tackle as part of the overall calculus, it worries me a little bit less.

36:05Robert Mays: If that makes sense, it's probably unfair and a little bit hypocritical. But I just think that his his spot in the pecking order of the offensive line, the wow, we're really, really putting a lot on a rookie to me again matters a little bit less. And also like you have a stopgap in Wiley. He played last year. so I just think that they have more optionality and like and even that can the depth of their offensive line all the backups were the starters last year and this was a top five offense so I think that part of it also matters at least a little bit no that that actually is a really good point in terms of like the best outcome for Connerly is in the offensive line health in general is that he's probably your third best guy behind cost me playing uh well again and coming back healthy and then obviously what you're going to get from Tunsil whereas with the Saints yeah you do need banks to kind of be your best guy but again this kind of goes back to what i was talking to is a really good player i think that's worth it but it's that's you know again there's center it's there's a different set of considerations there but and this also goes back to like what i was talking about in terms of like the visual style of football it all the saints guys are like 320 plus and all of the guys with washington are like not movers like tunsell to me is not a guy who moves people conner lee is not a guy who moves people cosme is and so that's like i guess a little bit of a different and coleman hopefully will be too and coleman hopefully can be but I guess like it's easier for me to see what the Saints unit as a whole here's the last point I'll make about the offensive line and again why I think I use this group to push them up a little bit higher than you did last year we had a coaching staff take a group that was probably bottom five in the league by talent again all of their starters are now their backups and turn them into an above average group right like I think decidedly above average when you try obviously in pure past situations they're going to get exposed a little bit but when you look at the ways they tried to help them.

37:46Robert Mays: The overall impact was an above average offensive line. And that's very impressive considering the individual talent. Well, now you've got a group that even with some of the questions is considerably more talented than last year's group was with the same coaching staff. So I just think even if you don't get a 1.7 X sort of outcome here, even if it's 1.3, I still feel like this offensive line in a lot of different timelines for this team could be a definitive positive in a way it wasn't even last year when they were playing at a high level. That's a good point. And I'm probably underrating the continuity part of it, like throw out whatever I think of Cliff, like in a vacuum.

38:28I'm probably underrating the fact that they are getting continuity, whereas teams like New Orleans and Seattle are not getting any of that.

38:35Robert Mays: there are a ton of teams like that in this group. And I think that's partially why I had Washington ahead of some of the teams that we're going to talk about, because I mean, there's one team that you're going to laugh at where I have them. It's just, I had to do it. But I do think continuity with play caller was important to me as I was considering this list, because there were a lot of teams that don't have that. And even if you like a lot of the other parts, there's always part of me that's just like, I remember the Steve Sarkeesian Falcons, you know, like it's fine, but you can take a significant step back when you're moving on from one of these really good play callers and several of these teams are.

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41:23Robert Mays: All right, so quick reset before we keep moving on here. I had the Seahawks at 16, the Giants at 15, the Saints at 14, the Panthers at 13. Your 16 through 13 was what? I had the New York Giants, and then I had the Seattle Seahawks, and then I had the Carolina Panthers, and then at 13 I had the Washington Commanders. Okay. Who did you have at 12? That was where I had the Saints. Okay. You had the Saints at 12. Okay. So who did you have at 11? then this was the team where the play caller i least knew what to do with and this to me was the dallas cowboys i had the cowboys at 12 oh okay there we go if i was pure if i was if we were removing coaching from it and this isn't even to say that schottenheimer is going to be bad or whatever but if i was looking purely at the players on the roster i might have had them one or two spots higher there were just a couple of teams that i have right above them where it's like general same tier of talent, but I know that I like the play caller to some degree.

42:24And then with, with the Cowboys, I just couldn't quite get there.

42:27Robert Mays: That's it's, it's a good way to think about it. I had the teams I had immediately ahead of them, I think have just more certainty at play caller, like the four teams I have immediately ahead of them. And then the teams I have right above that group, even if there's some turnover and play caller, I think there are fewer weaknesses or question marks with the offensive personnel. And you'll get it when when we talk about who those teams are. But I think the Cowboys have questions with the pass catchers, like three through five. I like Ferguson, but I think that that's, again, I don't think it's as definitive of a positive.

42:58Robert Mays: It is like with the bucks or the lions or teams like that. And the offensive line, there's still some questions about the offensive line, right? Like they, it's a highly drafted group. There's a lot of investment in it, but Guyton was really up and down as a rookie. You have Booker stepping in as a rookie, Terrence steel has not been the same player since he got hurt. So I think the Schottenheimer question to me is the biggest one about the Cowboys spot under lists like this. But I do think there are enough question marks with the personnel that that's how you get them at 11 or 12, even with some of the really good players they have on the roster.

43:33Yeah. And like the best outcome for this offensive line is, is really, really good. Like if Guyton even becomes like a consistent average tackle and then the The rest of the guys like Tyler Smith continues to play well. Cooper Bibi, I think, was actually decent. Just got overshadowed by two other really good rookie centers in his class, which doesn't really happen a lot. If Tyler Booker is solid, if Terrence Steele plays a little bit better again, like this offensive line could be really good. But literally all those guys outside of probably Tyler Smith have some degree of question mark as to how good they're actually going to be in 2025.

44:07Robert Mays: When you say really good, like what do you think is the ceiling for this group if we're playing that 75th percentile outcome game? like honestly like top eight unit like they i think they could be really really damn good if those guys hit like what their ceilings could be obviously you need every domino to fall there and that's kind of the tricky part as opposed to needing one or two but i think relatively i'm a little bit more down on them than that i just i just don't play specifically i think it's i do think with guyton you're asking for a lot because he was very up and down like the best moments are good but i think i just really like what i saw from bb yeah yeah but i was gonna say i think the ceiling for the interior is just lower than it's been in years past but i guess that depends on how you think about booker and how you conceive of him like he can be a really good player so i don't even know if that's a fair characterization i just think that expecting more from terrence steel at this point is probably a tough ask i know he was banged up last year even independent of the recovery, but I don't know.

45:10Robert Mays: I just think that a path to a top eight offensive line to me is a little bit slimmer than you probably do. But again, the reason I have him at 12 is mostly based on the play caller. Like I have no doubt that guys like him and that the mood and the vibe at OTAs has been fun in Dallas. Like he's that kind of guy, but these culture setting CEO guys for them to work, you need the right offensive play caller as part of all of this. Like Dan Campbell, Jonathan Gannon, like Nick Sirianni, even we've seen what these teams look like in part because they have the right guy calling plays. Well, Schottenheimer's the guy calling plays.

45:45Robert Mays: And the last time he did this, like those Seattle offenses were pretty good, but I just don't see him as like a definitive positive in this role. And that means I just don't know if the infrastructure can like considerations are overcoming some of the questions we have about the personnel. I think that's fair. and especially to like they were a hard team to rank because I think I'm probably slightly lower on the pickings thing than a lot of other people and then I still really thought they needed to add running back talent and they didn't do a whole lot that's good fired me in terms of running back talent this offseason which is probably yeah it seems like they're pretty far away from inspiration I mean yeah when I have them at like 12 or something they're they're pretty far from that but I don't know.

46:29They're just, I mean, I just,

46:29Robert Mays: I just don't, the idea of framing Javante Williams is that doesn't inspire me. I think is a generous framing. Yeah. Like at this stage. And then what, when did they draft the running back? It was like the fifth round or something. Like I just, they had one of the weakest running games in the league last year. I wanted them to do something. Yeah. I just, we'll see what happens. I like the Clayton Adams hire as the offensive coordinator. I'm curious what that does to the run game and to the offensive line specifically. Obviously he was the offensive line coach in Arizona where, again we just said it we'll talk about the Cardinals I assume pretty soon here the offensive line talent is not very good on that team and they've had a really good running game multiple years in a row and like a top 10-ish offense multiple years in a row and I think the coaching and design along the offensive line is a huge part of that so I think getting him in the building with the staff is that's a win but I'm I still just have enough questions about the where shoddy is going to rank among all these NFC play callers for me to move the Cowboys any higher than this and and I guess that's part of it for me too is like what if we get the Adams multiplier that we got in Arizona but with the talent that Dallas has like I just I can see it I can see it I'm not ruling it out it's again just a question we haven't seen it the last time he was an offensive play caller was like in 2020 with the Seahawks right and those offenses were good but And that was like a very specific.

47:51Robert Mays: Yes. And that's the best ball Russ was playing in his entire career. Was that like 2018 to 2020 stretch? He was playing really, really good football in that stretch. And so we'll see. Like, I just, the guy hasn't been a play caller in five years. Like he's, he's bounced around in these different roles. Like I'm not saying that's all his fault, but I also think that there's probably a reason he wasn't super in demand as teams were doing everything they could. Teams were like shanking loved ones to find the next best play, next great play caller. And he didn't get another chance after that Seahawks run.

48:22Yeah. In a league where everyone is trying to hire any offensive, anyone who's called offensive plays at any level to, to come run their offense. The fact that he hasn't stuck is a little bit concerning. Yes.

48:32Robert Mays: And again, maybe that's, he's a little bit older. He wasn't the hotshot guy. Maybe that's part of it. And I'm willing to admit that, but I think there's enough of a question about what it's going to be that I'm comfortable putting them at 12. So you had the Cowboys at 11. I had the Cowboys at 12. Who did you have at 10? that is the team we were just talking about a little bit the arizona cardinals which is the cardinals at 11 okay so same neighborhood here they were another team where like i said at the top of the show where there were teams i thought i was gonna have higher and then you just list out the other teams in the conference and you're like huh i guess i really can't put them much much higher than 10 and a lot of it is like what we just talked about where i know the skill players i think they have plenty of guys i think marvin harrison jr is going to take a step michael Wilson solid Trey McBride's awesome.

49:17Petsing, I think has been a good, above average offensive play caller. It's just, I look at the offensive line and it's like, how high can I really put this group?

49:27Robert Mays: Yeah, I think that's a good way to look at it. McBride is already like a top three to four pass catching tight end. I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to take a step. I still think they need one more pass catcher. I think that them not going out and getting one this off season was probably a mistake. I feel the same way about the offensive line. The offensive line is a group propped up by scheme and it should be better personnel wise this year if they can stay healthy. Jonah Williams didn't play last year. You know, Will Hernandez was hurt for a good chunk of the year, but they're really relying on guys like Isaiah Adams.

49:54Robert Mays: I think Paris Johnson needs to keep developing. So the offensive line personnel is a big question. I think the pass catchers are fine. A lot of this is going to depend on where you land with Petsing. And we've talked a lot about him this offseason, whether it's directly or indirectly. We're having the Marvin Harrison Jr. conversation, et cetera. I think they do a lot of really good stuff. I think the run game and the play action game are both excellent, but there's a reason that Kyler was below average. When you look at like EPA per drop back on non-play action drop backs, I think that the passing game, the pure passing game, there's still a little bit left to be desired there.

50:26Robert Mays: And I think some of the rigidity with how they've used some of the personnel, Marvin Harrison Jr. Being the best example of that is really an indication to me of like where the ceiling might be with this offensive staff where they do a really good job. There's some interesting ideas here, but are there, are there going to be a couple of things that keep him and keep them from really breaking into that top, top tier that they have not been able to access quite yet? That's why that's on top of the offensive line stuff. Also why I couldn't put them that much higher than like 10th or so is because I do like some of the stuff that Petsing has done, but especially in the passing game.

51:02And I think that one's a tough one to try to dissect too, because it does go back to the pass catchers a little bit like I think part of some of their weird deployment of players and not quite having the full drop back game that they wanted to have last year is in part because their only field stretcher was Marvin Harrison Jr. who is also their best one-on-one guy so like you can't use him for both in the same play and I do think that that hurt them like this this is a team that would have benefited from signing like Deami Brown to just like run fast down the field so that Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn't have to do it but they didn't do that and like you said they didn't add much on the offensive line either like this is they're just betting that even more continuity and a step from marvin harrison jr is going to take them from like kind of fun kind of good kind of volatile to an actual top 10 unit and i just it feels like

51:49Robert Mays: they're asking for a lot to go right there do you think that can happen though i think there is still a chance that marvin harrison jr can be that kind of difference maker i'm just probably a little bit less optimistic than I might have been a year ago. And I still think he's good. I just don't know if the ceiling is actually that high for him. Yeah, this is a team that really could have used the Matt Harmon term, the sacrificial X. That's just what he is within the offense. Yes. This team, almost more than any other, needs a true sacrifice at the X receiver in order for Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the player you need him to be.

52:24Robert Mays: And Michael Wilson just isn't really that guy. He's just not like a vertical player. He's like a slot, yeah. Yeah, yeah. it's just I he's I like him I just think that there are a lot of guys in that pass catching group that I think that there is some meat on the bone left for all of them I just don't know if we're gonna see it based on the current construction of that room yeah and even the running backs like is Trey Benson gonna be better this year I don't know like I I like him but he was also a guy who coming out of college was incredibly volatile in terms of the way that he ran like I just there's more here that I I just wanted them to add something else to make me feel like they were taking a step and they really didn't.

53:03And I get that in terms of the holistic view of the team, right? Like the defense was terrible. They needed to invest resources there. But the fact that there's nothing new on this side of the ball really is a little bit frustrating.

53:12Robert Mays: All right. So I had the Cardinals at 11. You had the Cardinals at 10. So who is one spot ahead of the Cardinals for you at your number nine team? This is the last team in the tier of teams I didn't quite know what to do with. And this to me is the Chicago Bears. I'm so glad you did this because I thought I was going to be hilariously low on them I have them at 10 one spot ahead of the Cardinals How high did you think I was going to have them? I don't know Like top five? No, no, no, no, no Yeah, I think the way that I see it I kind of had the Cardinals and the Cowboys as their own little mini group After that first four teams And then my 10 through 6 I think you could make a compelling argument to do it in almost any order and so I just kind of expected you to have the bears closer to the top of that group based on Ben Johnson and some of the other things and so the fact that you had them at the bottom of that group makes me feel a little bit better but also a little bit worse because I thought that I was being purposely low on them to protect myself and the fact that you don't have to do that and are still this low on them maybe that should worry me a little bit more than it is right now yeah I just there is a lot I think there'll be a good offense and I do think that they'll be better than last year but for as much as I like Ben Johnson as a play call I hope so with as much as they invested it would be really hard not to but here's here's why I think I ended up with them at nine instead of like six or seven I think the offensive line can work in theory but all of these guys along the interior outside of Tooney so the other two in Jonah Jackson and Dahlman were hurt last year and Jackson has been hurt a lot and even the tackles in the best case scenario are probably an average duo like in the best case scenario they're probably average and then when I look at Ben Johnson I think he's a phenomenal play caller but he is also a guy who's going from pure play caller under a very very good head coach in Dan Campbell to now he's the head guy and I just yeah I still think that he'll be a positive obviously but is is he only going to be an 8 out of 10 for you instead of a 10 out of 10 that's kind of where I'm wearing it's a really good thing to bring up running back room it's a really good thing to bring up I I think that that's probably why they're a little bit lower for me, even independent of whatever reverse drinks I'm trying to pull.

55:27Robert Mays: You just don't know. And I think with Ben Johnson compared to a lot of other play callers that get head coaching jobs. And we've talked about this in the context of why it was a higher. I'm excited about very rarely. Do you get very rarely is probably strong. Cause there aren't that many. It's not like I have a scientifically like significant. I don't have a statistically significant sample of coaches to say this, say very rarely. anecdotally, I think a lot of the guys who are the archetype of offensive coordinator, the Ben Johnson is multi-year top tennis offensive coordinator over two to three seasons without an elite quarterback.

56:03Robert Mays: Those guys typically, when they've gone from offensive coordinator to play calling head coach had been able to carry over success. The best two examples of that are McVay and Shanahan, right? And who knows? There's a bunch of different reasons. Those guys have been successful independent of play calling talent. So I think I'd bet on Ben Johnson still being really good, but that eight, seven and a half compared to a 10 out of 10, I think that's a good way to think about it. So that's part of the reason that I think I'm a little bit lower. The pass catcher should be good. Like, I just don't know what else to do with this.

56:33Robert Mays: Like even if there are concerns about, I still think that I, I have zero faith and had zero faith, especially by like week two, that that coaching staff knew how to deploy the pass catchers correctly. I have more faith in this group being able to do that. The talent is there. The offensive line, I think that this is another one of those spots where you look at the individual talent and like Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones, whoever wins a left tackle job, and you think about them in the context of what the offense was last year or the year before. And I think it's really important to consider how much better the environment is going to be for each and every offensive lineman on this offense compared to last year.

57:15Robert Mays: It's the same sort of thing we're talking about with the Seahawks. Those guys will look better by virtue of playing in a different system than they looked in a system where they were completely left out to dry. So I'm still keeping a candle lit for Darnell Wright as part of all of this because I think that he's been given a really shitty situation essentially from the day he walked into the NFL. That is also fair. And Wright was a really talented guy coming out of college. So I do think environment is probably going to help him. That that might be the part of this that I am underrating the most is like.

57:46It just feels like there's so much change up front with them basically having three new interior players, which they needed, by the way. And then also a new system, I guess, for whatever reason, I'm having a hard time fully visualizing a good like not a good outcome. I think it'll be good, but like the best outcome. But maybe maybe I'm just not putting enough into that. I do think the best outcome there is insane.

58:06Robert Mays: Yes. And I think that's the difference between a team like this. and the teams at 12 and 13, where we can admit, all right, we might be wrong about this, but even if we're wrong about the Panthers, they end up at nine. If we're wrong about the Bears, like there's a world where we do this exercise again next year and they're third. Like that's not crazy. I think that they probably have among all of these teams, the biggest potential variance because of you switching out the 60 % of the offensive line and you're going from two extremely different poles when it comes to the quality of the play caller if Ben Johnson is bringing the guy he was in Detroit with him.

58:47Yeah, that's a good point. For some of these other teams, it's like, I don't know, even the best outcome is not that good, but the Bears, like you said, they, short of probably the top two, maybe three teams on here, they could be the next best one if everything goes well. And there's reason to believe that even outside of the offensive line, right? Like I think Roma Dunze is better than he showed last year. Yes. I really liked Loveland coming out of college. Luther Burden, I didn't love, but if he's like the fourth or fifth most important skill player on the team, given his skillset, I think that could make sense with Ben Johnson.

59:17Like there is. And then like, even next year, like if they add a running back that I like, like there's, so there, there's a lot to this that maybe I do have them too low, but I think there was just some other parts of the other teams that I liked for whatever reason.

59:30Robert Mays: We can get into this. I think that a lot of the other teams just have fewer questions. questions. So even if you're going to get excited about the best case scenario for the bears, I just think that the median set of outcomes for most of these teams is just a little bit easier to believe in than it is with the bears. And that's why I had them a little bit lower. That's the best. That's the, like the last thing I'll say is like median outcome. That's probably why I ranked them where I did. But if we were ranking best potential outcome for every team, they'd probably be top five. All right. So you had the bears at nine.

59:59Robert Mays: Who did you have at eight? i had the atlanta falcons our list are the same i had atlanta at nine i had atlanta one spot ahead of the bears you gotta be kidding me i think like and this compared to the the bears is because i just like you said i have fewer questions like there are just the offensive line is mostly the same and they're not a great unit but i think that they can be good and i think even though they're having to replace dolman they already played without him last year and they were still a fairly effective run game the skill players are awesome like drake london is a true wide receiver one bjohn robinson is one of the best running backs in the league and he's a pretty good third down back and then darnell mooney was like shockingly pretty good for them last year and so i like some of the skill players it's a little thinner than i think you're making it out to be like their skill position players are awesome to me it's a little bit it's like one toe over the line i think it's a good group i think wide receiver like three is a little thin but other than that like if these guys stay healthy i think it's a really really good group I also, I am still, I still think Kyle pits is better than people realize that he is.

1:01:03Robert Mays: That's the biggest part of this is like, given what's happened with pits the last couple of years, I just think that's probably where the sticking point is. It's about whether you choose to believe. And I honestly think Mooney was really good last year. So I had the depth of it to me, I guess it's just a little bit that that's where I probably start having a couple questions and raising an eyebrow, but I do like it overall. I mean and they're funny because like compared to the Bears I think they have a lower ceiling probably but I also like their floor actually is a little bit scared oh this is maybe I should have put the Bears ahead of them now that I'm like kind of thinking this through I think the only reason I didn't or not the only reason but the biggest reason is even though I think Ben Johnson's a great play caller he's going from play caller to head coach where Zach Robinson is staying in the position and he was really good last year.

1:01:49It's the exact place I landed.

1:01:51Robert Mays: It's the exact place I landed. I, we were, we're taking the sand drop out the thought process to this. I, even if I think Ben Johnson is a better play caller than Zach Robinson has shown to be one, Zach Robinson is doing the same job he did well last year. And I think that's all the same ingredients. Yes. And then, and the players are good. Like that's not the only consideration. So I think that's you perfectly articulated like why I had them stacked in that exact order. So we had the Falcons one spot ahead of the bears, both of us. I had Washington at eight. So that, that's where we're a little bit different here.

1:02:23Robert Mays: You had the Falcons at eight, correct? I did. Yeah. Okay. And then, so who did you have at seven? This was probably in the top half the toughest team for me to rank but it's the San Francisco 49ers. Wow. Yeah. I'm assuming you had them like three four spots higher. Yes. Here's I get this by the way. I totally get this. I but then this is why they were tricky because the ceiling for them is incredible. They have Kyle Shanahan who is an obvious obvious special difference maker. Brandon I you get his best is awesome. Kittle might still be the best tight end in the league. Christian McCaffrey, if he comes back healthy, awesome.

1:03:03There are just so many question marks about all the skill players. Kittle's getting older. What are we going to get from Iuke? Ricky Pearsall's already hurt. Christian McCaffrey, is he going to be good again? I don't know. And then to me, the offensive line out of Trent Williams. Hold on to your hats, man. I mean, Dominic Cooney is good at right guard, but the other three spots, I don't know, dude.

1:03:23Robert Mays: I can't disagree with any of that, by the way. the first line in my notes I have the Niners at three okay okay the first line in my notes is even with all the questions about CMC Iuke Pearsall and the offensive line this ranking is a bet on Kyle Shanahan yeah I mean other than the eight things that might go wrong you know I just I I've I'm I'm just I'm gonna I'd rather be a year late than a year early when it comes to like projecting his demise as truly like one of the special play callers and offensive architects we have seen in the NFL since I started paying attention to the NFL. I understand why this could be wrong.

1:04:03Robert Mays: And I understand why this could be spinning it way too optimistically. I can live with that. I just, I've seen him do it too many times. And even if, and we said this, when we're talking about the Niners on the lingering question show, even if we do feel like last year was the first year in a while where they weren't playing on the front foot all the time and dictating how games were going to go. That's generally been how it's gone for the last like five to six years. And I believe that last year might've been the outlier compared to the last five or six years before that. So I think that's what I'm choosing to believe, even with all of those personnel questions that you just mentioned.

1:04:40And I get that because there was a version of this list that I had them at four. So I was at one point like pretty close to in lockstep with you. I just I think part of it is I I really like I said, other than and even with Trent Williams being good. I mean, he's getting older, man. Like I think there's just a lot of concerns that like when I look at that offensive line chart, I get the ick. And then even with Kyle Shanahan, even though I think he's fantastic and was still really good last year, I do think with the style of play that Purdy kind of puts on the team as in terms of being more of a drop back guy, like puts Kyle slightly out of his element, which means you're instead of like a hundred percentile play caller in 95th.

1:05:19But that to me was kind of the margins for like three through seven is like very, very small stuff like that.

1:05:26Robert Mays: You know, the Niners were a top 10 offense last year, right? Yeah. And I think they probably can be again. I just also think every other unit ahead of them can also be a top 10 offense. But they were a top 10 offense last year in the season from hell when everything went wrong. But everything is already going wrong again. Like I, you, I don't know how healthy he's going to be. Pearsall is already hurt. And like CMC, we don't know. Trent Williams is going to be like 40. That's probably a little bit mean for like, I don't think he's quite 40, but like, I don't know, man. There's just, I think they need more dominoes to fall than they probably ever have.

1:06:03Robert Mays: this is one of those scenarios where um there's a chance this is true where last year was like the first bit of a drop off this year we kind of see them even if it's the same tier they were in last year it's just not quite what we come to expect from them it's almost like when there's a band that you love and like the most recent couple albums aren't very good but you still are paying to go see them live it's just like i'm choosing to live in like five or six years ago when this is the greatest thing i'd ever seen or heard there's a chance we're entering that period of the Niners where this is like the autumn of this version of the Niners and the material's not quite as good as it was but I'm I'm still gonna be as much of a hardcore fan as I've been in years past I really don't blame you because Kyle Kyle Shanahan really is one of the best that I've ever seen I just this was one for whatever reason even because if again if I'm just listening play callers I mean he's he's one or two it's just the roster really gave me a lot of ick yes and I think that's totally fair i just i'm and again i'm definitely overrating his role in all this and the multiplier like if the ratio of like how i'm weighing all this stuff is not the same as it is for some of these other teams and i admit that but and like i get it because like we've seen kyle shanahan put together literally like league average offense with like cj bethard at quarterback and like where they were throwing passes to just like whoever like i'd so and so here's in order to kind of make this a little bit easier, like actually make a real case as to why I had them that high.

1:07:34Robert Mays: I understand the questions about some of the players on the offense, but if IU comes back like halfway through the year, let's say you still have Kittle. Let's say CMC is healthy this year. Let's say he's just CMC over the last few years. The Packers don't have elite offensive players, right? So the fact, even if there are more holes with the Niners, those holes have kind of always been there like the offensive line wasn't good two years ago when they were the best offense in the league and so i think that trying to look at things breaking right with the stars trent william still playing at this level cmc being healthy are you coming back midway through the year and being a good version of himself kittle still being there all of that combined with shanahan that's why i think you can make the case over a team like green bay who i have a little bit below them because i still think that those elite players, even with imperfections on the offense before combined with Kyle Shanahan, weren't just the best offense in the league.

1:08:30Robert Mays: There were stretches where they were one of the best offenses we'd ever seen. And I don't think enough of that has changed. If guys stay healthy for me to completely stop believing in the ceiling for them. I think you're probably right. And I'm going to feel the most bad about this ranking when we get to December. I think there's a better chance I'm wrong and just I'd rather just be wrong. I'd rather just go down with the ship. I shouldn't be fading the Kyle Shanahan bounce back, but I don't know. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then run through the rest of these teams.

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1:12:11Robert Mays: Alright, so you had the Niners at seven. I had the Bucks at seven. Wow, really? Yes. Is it just the play caller? That's it. Okay. That's it. I mean, there's a lot of really good play callers above them, so I get it. And I think that is the thing here. And so the only team that's ahead of the bucks on this list. So the bucks and the lions, I have at seven and six, just to like put it out there. I think you could say almost all the same things for the bucks and the lions. And so this little tier I have where it's like, they're just outside of the top five. The only team ahead of the bucks and lions on the exact same line that doesn't have an elite play caller ahead of them is the Eagles who have the best players.

1:12:57Robert Mays: So that's why the seven seems low, right? I mean, that's a team I expected to be much higher when we did this, but you're talking about bumping them ahead of Malifleur, Shanahan, Sean McVay. And, or like, I just, I wasn't able to do that. I love the players that they have like top to bottom. I think that you can make an argument that the actual talent is, I don't know, second or third on this list, like right in that conversation. but I think again, they're just a slight tear behind all these other teams because we've never seen Josh Grisard do this. Like who the hell knows? And this gets back to the Canales thing.

1:13:36Robert Mays: Canales was good enough to get a head coaching job after being the Bucks offensive coordinator. They finished 18th in offensive DV away with a lot of the same players. So I just don't, I don't want to understate what Liam Cohen did last year. Even if we do really, really like the players. I maybe I am like underrating Liam Cohen and I think he was obviously fantastic but I just look at this roster and like even if Grisard is an average play caller this is a top like 10 offense easily easily like I think the floor is so high I just don't agree with that how many offensive lines in the NFL do you think are for sure better than them I think but okay I think it's one okay So this is really, you only think it's one.

1:14:25I think it's the Eagles.

1:14:27Robert Mays: Yeah. The rag now part of it is actually, is it? Exactly. So I think the best argument you can make here is that they're bringing back the offensive line coach who is also the run game coordinator. And if they can tap into a similar sort of run game as they did last year, I feel a lot better about the weaponization of that offensive line talent, because that would be my first response is that when you think of that offensive line, because of the way they played last year in part because of every single one of those guys was maximized. Does that happen again? Is that changed the way that you consider the offensive line?

1:14:58Robert Mays: But the fact that they have the offensive line coach back and you hopefully can tap into some of the same stuff that I tend to agree with, but even beyond that, yeah, I, I, I'm, I hear what you're saying, but I just, I, I, it's not that I feel I'm even down on them relatively. I really, really like this group. I just couldn't put them ahead of any of the teams I had ahead of them. And even the lions who are one spot ahead of them on this list that this is, they're right there. Like I get a flip six and seven easily, but with both the lions and the bucks, it was just because all of these other teams have continuity at the most important spots.

1:15:33Robert Mays: And this team, these teams do not, we just don't know. I think that's fair. Like I, I have them above some really, really good play callers that I like, which makes me feel a little bit uneasy. I just think that like talent wise they have to me, assuming everybody's healthy or like relatively healthy, they're going to be a top five offensive line again. And they have like six skill players I think are legitimately useful, if not very good. And that to me is just like it's hard for me to imagine how that would not be a top 10 offense again. I don't I don't even disagree with that. I think there's probably more outcomes where they're not a top 10 offense than you do.

1:16:12Robert Mays: I wouldn't be surprised if they landed there again. I just again I did it's the question mark with the guy now running the show like I just feel like when you do that when you're swapping out a guy who was operating at a super super high level for somebody we've never seen do this it's hard for me to put a team like that ahead of the Eagles like I just I or even like the Packers I just I can't I can't do that I did there's way too much uncertainty there for me I did not put them ahead of the Eagles to be clear but I did put them ahead of the Packers. But I just think that we're getting into like really, really high end territory here.

1:16:49Robert Mays: And again, like you have them ahead of the Niners and I get that. I just feel like I'm making bets on the guys I've seen do it for a really, really long time. Even if I think there are some holes in the offensive personnel, even I, I think a team like the Eagles is a really good example here. The Eagles had the same players outside of Saquon, who obviously was very good, but they had the same players two years ago as they had last year. And I don't think Kellen Moore is like some earth shattering play caller, but the difference between objectively bad offensive play calling and even average offensive play calling was enough to take this from an extremely frustrating group to a team that won the Superbowl.

1:17:27Robert Mays: Like even if you have all the best players, if you don't have the right person in charge of all of this, you can feel the gaps and the players don't feel as good. Like you're just not maximizing that talent. And so I think that there's absolutely a world where that happens for the Bucks and for the Lions, but I just don't know. And that's why I have just a tiny bit of hesitation with both of them. No, that's a really good point, especially with like the 2023 Eagles. I'm probably looking past. The uncertainty of play caller here, I just it's literally the opposite of how I feel about the Niners, where I look at the Niners play caller.

1:18:02I'm like, I know that he's the best, but I look at the rest of the roster and I feel an ick. and then with the Buccaneers, I look at the roster and I'm like, they're so good that almost no matter what I think of the play caller, I think they'll be pretty good.

1:18:13Robert Mays: And I, again, I don't disagree with that. That's probably a little bit scary. I probably shouldn't be doing that. It's you, I'm probably doing too much the other way. I'm probably overstating it too much the other way where I'm not weighing the talent enough. I just think that at times it's easy to conflate well-maximized talent or correctly maximized talent with the talent level on its own, independent of the coach. I think that that's at times easy to do. And I think in our minds, we're thinking of this 2024 bucks team that was just a firework show, like the most fun offense, I think just structurally maybe to watch in the entire NFL.

1:18:48Robert Mays: And that in my, my view is partially why the players felt so good. And so if you change those components a little bit, does the talent feel as overwhelming? It might and I might look like a moron but I just have enough of a kernel of doubt that it pushes them down a little bit for me on this list I get that and see what's funny about them compared to the 49ers and I think I think we might have done this on the AFC show too I think you're a little bit more indexing into the ceiling of what these teams could be and I'm a little bit more interested in what the floor might be and obviously with the Niners that's complicated because the floor is very high with Kyle but I think like talent wise the floor for the Bucks is very high and that's why I put them higher.

1:19:32Robert Mays: Yeah, I get that. I get that. Okay. So you had the, I had the bucks at seven. You had the bucks where I had them at three. I get them really high. So we, so we had, we had our, the Niners and the bucks flipped. Yeah. That's so that's exactly, that's essentially what happened. We had the Niners, which is so telling it is. It is so telling that we did that. All right. So you had the bucks or you had the Niners at seven. I had the bucks at seven. Who That's where I put the Detroit Lions, which I also had the Lions at six. Okay. Did you, did you have them higher at any point in this list? And then you kind of walked them down.

1:20:07Robert Mays: I don't think so. I think again, it's just, I think there, I probably had them slotted in right around here. I honestly think there's probably a version of this list where I had Washington and the Falcons higher than the bucks and the lions simply because of the questions about the play caller. And eventually I was like, eh, no, the players are too good. We're not doing this. So I eventually slotted those two teams in ahead of Washington and the Falcons, but I kind of bucketed them together. Similarly, where Washington and the Falcons were kind of in their own little group and the Lions and the Bucks were kind of in their own little group.

1:20:40Robert Mays: I think that you're honestly the where I'm willing to kind of acquiesce here is that I think your argument sold me that I might want to have the Bucks ahead of the Lions, even if I kind of consider them to be on the same tier. that's why I had them ahead because here's I feel like the ceiling for the Lions is still really good like like maybe Morton is really good maybe some of the interior stuff works out I just feel like the floor for this could fall out in a way that is like they could be like more of an average ish offense than anything because I think so much of what they did the last couple years is being a run first team but if Ben Johnson is out the door and a lot of your other pieces along the interior or out the door, that scares me a little bit.

1:21:25And then I, Amon Ross St. Brown is a really, really good receiver. I think Sam Laporta is like a little bit overrated is probably why I have them a little bit lower. So I think I just, if the offensive line's not going to be as good, they're going to lose Ben Johnson. I don't know. The skill player group just didn't look as sexy as I thought it was going to.

1:21:45Robert Mays: You've sold me 100%, by the way. I literally just copy and paste it. I have the Lions at seven and the Bucks at six. You completely sold me because I think you're right. I think that if the question is about, and there are a lot of other similarities, the offensive line coach or run game coordinator is back for the Lions. They kept Hank Fraley. So you hope some of that stays the same. So there are more parallels here than it might seem when you just kind of stack it up and look at the tail of the tape. And I do think that the continuity along the offensive line for the Bucs and the high end receiving talent, I think I probably put the Bucs ahead of the Lions.

1:22:15Robert Mays: You're switching out three spots on the interior. like three spots could be worse this year for the lions than they were last year. And that's the thing is that compared to the books, they need Christian mahogany to do what Cody Malk did. And they need Tate Ratledge to be Graham Barton. Well, with the books, I know that Graham Barton is good. And I know that Cody Malk is already taking the steps. So it's like, I think that degree of certainty is ultimately what moved me. Yeah. Yeah. The rag, nothing is big. And I think that the rag, not part of it is now you're moving around a bunch of different pieces.

1:22:42Robert Mays: You know, now it's like you're replacing two guards and your, and a center. and I just think that there's a lot there are a lot of questions among that group that there's haven't been in years past and I think it's easier to feel good about where the bucks are so I'm with you that being said it's still a really really good they'll still be good it's still a really good group of players it's but it's just not quite at the level it's been over the last couple years from a talent perspective and you add in the uncertainty with the play caller like I think Johnny Morton could be good like there I think it's worth betting on that building and what they've been able to do with their coaching staff over the last few years.

1:23:19Robert Mays: But it's a question that you can't frame it any other way. That's the thing. They will still be good, but I won't be shocked if instead of the fourth best offense, they are like the 11th best offense and they have three or four stinkers next year. Like that's kind of where I'm at with with what they are. All right. So you had the Lions at six. I had the Lions at seven and the Bucks at six. So who is the team you have at five? I'm on the Green Bay Packers here. I had the Packers at four. I wanted to put them at four. I really, really did. I just think the team I have ahead of them has a slightly higher ceiling.

1:23:57But for me, when I looked at the Packers, they were the perfect team that actually captures how I've ranked a lot of these teams. I think the floor is so high. Like Matt LaFleur is an awesome play caller. I think the offensive line, even if they don't have stars, I think is structurally put well together. and I think with the inclusion of Aaron Banks now like they at least have quality starters pretty much across the board and then even the skill players there is again no star but I think the depth is really good I think Tucker Craft is a really really good tight end and even the run game I think is going to probably be good again next year so I just they still unless Matthew Golden is awesome I still don't know what the ceiling is but the floor is just like I feel

1:24:35Robert Mays: incredible about it I think I was conceiving of it in a similar way so I the Packers at four I will and we'll talk about the team I have at five. That's one spot below them. I think you could probably guess based on what we were just talking about, but, and how this entire list is gone. The Packers every single year that Matt LaFleur has been there have finished in the top 10 and weighted offensive DVOA every year, even in 2022, when we were like freaking out about Rogers and how he was playing, they finished ninth that year. So that's the floor you're talking about. So the floor at this point has been top 10 offense.

1:25:09Robert Mays: And I think you could easily make a case that the talent on that offense now is better than it's been over the last couple years. So Jordan Morgan coming back, you sign Aaron Banks, you move Jenkins to center. Walker has been fine. We'll see what happens with Belton. But I think the depth there at left tackle after drafting Belton in the second round, you feel good about so many permutations of that offensive line. Zach Thomas, a really good player. So the talent along the offensive line might be the best that it's been in the last like three or four years. If some of the young guys take a step forward, I believe even if Matthew Golden isn't a star, I think the most appealing part of the Matthew Golden pick is that it slots in everybody else in the way that they should be slotted in.

1:25:51Robert Mays: It's the skill set they were missing in that group. And that's why even if his ceiling, he's a rookie who knows, I think the ceiling of the group gets lifted because of what his skill set does to everybody else. So I think the way I feel about the offensive line and the pass catchers is kind of similar. And then you combine that with an offensive play caller and staff whose worst showing has been ninth in the past five years. So that's why I felt as good as I did about putting them at four, even above a team like the one that I have ranked just behind them that we'll get to in a second. That's actually a really good point about Golden.

1:26:27He doesn't actually have to be a star. He just has to make sure everyone else is going to fit into the right role. And then at that point, I trust Matt LaFleur to do everything that he needs to do once everybody is able to slot into their right spot. So if they can get any degree more explosive next year, that would be, yeah, they're going to be good. My next team is the Rams, and I almost now feel like I should have put the Packers ahead of them the more I think about it.

1:26:49Robert Mays: Oh, wow. So, okay, so does that mean you had the Eagles? Do you have the Eagles at one or two? I have them at two. Okay, so I have the Eagles at five. Okay, is this also a play caller thing? 100 % like what else could it be? So here's the thing with the Eagles. I know that what we just talked about with 2023 and them obviously having a really, really bad play caller. I still feel like for the most part, like play caller is like kind of immaterial to the Eagles. I don't disagree with that, but that's why they're at five. Consider it with all of the with the questions about the play caller compared to some of the other teams that are lower than that on this list.

1:27:24Robert Mays: And I think if I'm tearing it and this is the way that I did it, the Bucks and the Lions sent a lot of the same sorts of conversations, a lot of talent, new play caller. I think the Bucks and the Lions are in a tier down from the teams I had in the top five, like the Eagles, the Packers, the Niners and the Vikings. Those are my the teams I had in the top five. I think those are mostly interchangeable. So even if the Eagles are switching out their play caller, the talent is so overwhelming that I have them in my top tier of teams, even with that sort of question coming into the season. I think Kevin Patu is a sharp guy.

1:27:56Robert Mays: Like, I think he could be just fine in the role. But again, we've just never seen it happen before. I find it interesting that for whatever reason, I've just given more benefit of the doubt to like blank slates at at play caller on this list. And I don't even know if that's right or wrong. I just find it like interesting that I've walked into that for whatever reason. But I don't know what the Eagles. I just like they have the best offensive line in football, probably. And I know that they're replacing Becton, but they kind of got Becton to work for nothing. And they're replacing him with an in-house guy.

1:28:24in Tyler Steen. So I think that that will probably be fine. And then skill player wise, they are as explosive as any team in the NFL.

1:28:30Robert Mays: I don't disagree with any of that. I think that's all right. I think you could easily have them higher. But for me, it was just one of those things. Like I look at the list. I just, even with the talent, it's just hard for me to put them ahead of Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and Kevin O 'Connell with Justin Jefferson. It's just, it's just hard for me to do that. It does make me feel a little bit scary, but even, so we bring up the 2023 Eagles, but I think the 2024 Eagles are also a good example that like, if you even just have an average play caller, they're incredible. But actually, I guess I'm going to fight myself.

1:29:03The offense was like quietly, not as good as it should have been last year.

1:29:05Robert Mays: They were 13th in offensive DVOA last year. But that also, you know, the quarterback didn't really play that good until January. He did not play that well for most of the season. So that, that is true. But I still just, it's enough. The question about the play car is not enough for me to like move them away from this grouping of teams. it's just enough for me to put them in the back half of this grouping of teams and i don't think that's like some crime this isn't me disrespecting the eagles it's actually me really respecting the eagles and the talent that they have on the roster yeah that's a really good point i just yeah i don't know for whatever reason the the the complete unknown at play caller isn't scaring me as much as i thought it was going to for some of these teams and maybe it should maybe i'm like not conceiving of this in the right way?

1:29:50Robert Mays: I probably overrate it. I'm willing to admit that, but there have been a lot of times I come back to last year when we did this exercise and I had the Vikings really high. And I think people are like, why would you have the Vikings that high? And then you, I don't know. I've watched the play caller. Yeah. Like I just, I've watched what he does to the quarterbacks. Like I think what your play caller does to your quarterback is hugely important. Like it drives so much of success and failure that to me, I, even if I'm over indexing it a little bit, I still think that it's important to, to like really weigh it as you're talking about this, because it probably matters more than we think it does in a lot of these cases, not less.

1:30:31It probably does. Like, I think for a lot of these teams, I've conceived of floor as offensive line, which I think is part of it, but I'm probably underrating play caller a little bit in that.

1:30:42Robert Mays: And I think play caller in C for some of these things, right? Like the bucks are a good example of this like that's what changed the ceiling i think in a lot of ways and so i think that's also what happens is that the talent probably does set the floor in a lot of ways i think that who's unlocking the talent ultimately helps dictate your ceiling yeah so i had the packers at four i had the eagles at five who did you have at four the rams and this okay this is like pretty much all Sean McVay, Puka Nakua, and hopefully Devante Adams. Cause I, I look at this offensive line and I'm still not sure. I like it more than you do.

1:31:20It's very good. I mean, walk me through that. Like why?

1:31:27Robert Mays: I just don't think there are like objectively bad players. I think that last year, I think the, I think it's just a solid group, like solid with potential to be good. like I do think that this could be like the 11th best offensive line in the league. And then when you combine that with the McVay part of it and the pass catchers, that's what takes it over the top for me. Like the, this offensive line I think is on paper significantly better than like the Niners offensive line. And I had the Niners at three. Yeah. So I think for me and a lot of this, I think that the offensive line being a net neutral combined with really, really good play calling and skill position players.

1:32:09Robert Mays: That's enough for me here. And I think that probably applies to the Rams and the 49ers. I also think that last year with the moving all those guys around before the season started and jerking them around, that was a bad thing. So I just feel like this group has in much more is on much more solid ground coming into this year. Then I think they probably were coming into last year because of how they screwed around with it. I might be burned by that a little bit, which obviously that's not going to be the case this year. But I guess I just. I think the guards are going to be good. I think I just have more questions about the other three spots.

1:32:45And obviously Havenstein has played well, but he's getting older at this point. Coleman Shelton was signed to like maybe start for them, which doesn't inspire that much confidence in me. And then Alaric Jackson is. Where do you really rank him among left tackles to me? Good enough. But if there's like 27 good enough left tackles, I'm in good enough. I'm in good enough range with the left tackles.

1:33:06Robert Mays: I need good enough. I am. I, I guess with the Larrick Jackson, I think he's closer to the line than, than maybe you do. I think is, is this guy like, is it a green light? Like that, that's kind of where I'm at when you're building that group. Obviously you want better than that, but am I like going to lay awake worried about this person? That's kind of how I think about left tackles. It's similar to how I think about quarterbacks. And I, he's not somebody I'm going to lay awake thinking about. Like he made$19 million this off season. I think it was justified based on the market. He's in the Dan Moore group.

1:33:38Robert Mays: Like it's, it's almost, it's a very similar sort of, but I was lower on the Dan Moore thing. I think like that range of tackle, I'm a little bit less enthusiastic about having on my team. Not enthusiastic about it. Doesn't give me night terrors. That's where, that's where I'm at with that tier of offensive tackles. In January, it does a little bit. I'd be more worried about the right tackle getting hurt and the weirdness on the interior than it would be about the left tackle with the Rams and I'm still not worried about most of it I just don't think they have a ton of like defined weaknesses with the offense right now I think that Puka and Devante Adams is awesome could be awesome like I yeah like it's like a very real potentially awesome that part you don't have to sell me McVay it's really good yeah like he's really really good and he doesn't even have that LeFleur thing where the floor is quite as high.

1:34:30Robert Mays: Like he's had lesser seasons, but I still think that, you know, what that group has been when healthy over the last couple of years on offense, I choose to believe it. You know, like I, they were fourth and weighted offensive DVO in 2023. They were in the top. I think they were seventh last year. Like this group, I still think has immense potential and you're dropping Devante Adams into it. And I think you're going to have more stability along the offensive line than you had last year. I am for whatever reason, probably have more reservations about the offensive line. And maybe, maybe that's dumb because they were also not very healthy last year.

1:35:08And hopefully you assume that they will be more healthy this year. And so maybe I'm not calculating for that well enough, but let's go back two years.

1:35:15Robert Mays: Let's go back to the 2023 offensive line that was mostly this group. They played in really, really well that year. And, you know, Havenstein's two years older, but I still think like that level of play or even like 85 % of that level of play. I don't think that is a crazy expectation. Like, I think that's very much in the realm of possibility. Yeah, it probably is. I don't know why I can't get there with this unit. Maybe it's the center specifically. I really don't know. But that's a good point because it's mostly the same. He's still on the team. He could win that job. I might be for whatever reason underrating the fact that like if they just get average play the McVay is going to make it insanely good I guess part of it too is I still have reservations about the running back room really getting enough like even if the offensive line is better like Kyron Williams was sneaky like not that good last year and I don't know if they have any better options I'm fine with him I'm not all that worried about it this this is still like a a top 10 ish running game last year, even with all the offensive line issues.

1:36:22Robert Mays: He's not explosive, but I think them being able to rely on a consistent running game. I think that's all they need for this thing to work. Yeah. I guess if Adams just makes the team more explosive, then it doesn't matter if the run game's not, but I guess in my head, a good Rams offense is an explosive run game, but maybe that's just kind of outdated. That hasn't been true in like five years. I know. I know. but like I don't know it's just like the Super Bowl since that happened last but even even Stafford like I know we're supposed to be removing the quarterback from this but like that version of Stafford doesn't exist anymore quite this to the same degree so like it's just I don't know the calculus to me is different again I got I might be over indexing the play color but I I think that all the other boxes were checked enough I don't blame you for saying hey the two best play callers of the last like 15 years maybe are going to be really really good again i'm keeping them in the top three that one all right so i think that's fair that's our top 15 each right i had the rams at two yeah and because i had the eagles at two and then obviously we both have the vikings at one yes which that to me was i think purely on talent the eagles are better but i mean if i'm also going to add kevin o 'connell on top of it who is probably what the third best play caller in this conference Yeah, man, like the only part of this that I think could pull them down a tiny little bit is that the offensive line is still a little bit of a projection.

1:37:48Robert Mays: And it's not even just the offensive line. It's the perceived uptick in running game quality. Yes. That is still just a projection. It's hard to find reasons they shouldn't than reasons they should. So I think it's actually more interesting to talk about why they shouldn't be number one. and the per the built in improvement for the running game because they got Will Fries, Landon Donovan Jackson, Atlanta Jackson, Landon Jackson, and Russia for the bills, Donovan Jackson, Will Fries and Kelly, that should be better. But again, we have not seen that happen. And we're going on multiple straight years of the running game, letting them down when they've tried to tap into it as an engine of the offense, deep into the season, you should have a cleaner path to that with these guys on the interior, but it's still something we have not seen in actuality yet.

1:38:36Robert Mays: Everything else I feel pretty good about. And cause that's the thing is that even if they don't do that, right? Like let's say they still have some of the same run game issues. There's still going to be like a top eight offense in theory. Like if you get average quarterback play out of JJ McCarthy, like they should be still really insane. Well, so here's the difference. They were like a decidedly below average rushing team in each of the last two years. I think a lot of that was offensive line talent. But again, I think some of it is not quite being able to solve for what you want it to be on the ground.

1:39:07Robert Mays: I just don't think they've ever clicked into that. Even if they fail to do that again, I still think the uptick in offensive line talent means they finish 13th in rushing efficiency instead of 20th. And when you combine that with what the passing game supporting cast looks like, I think it's enough for me to put them at number one. And to me, again, the reason they're this high and number one specifically is because Kevin O 'Connell kind of puts them over the top. And to me, if they're going out and getting these particular players, Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Donovan Jackson, people who move you, I think Kevin O 'Connell is like, ah, I want my run game to do a little bit more and to be able to move people.

1:39:45So he, I think was clearly forward thinking about this. And I have a pretty high amount of faith in his ability to figure that out, even if we haven't seen it.

1:39:53Robert Mays: Also, you mentioned that Kevin O 'Connell is the reason they're number one and like what sort of play caller he is. I'm going to say that Justin Jefferson. Also the best, yeah. I think that having, if not the best receiver in the NFL, then one A, one B with the guy who plays in Cincinnati, that matters to me. Like I love AJ Brown. AJ Brown's an incredible player. As we're talking about all these guys, Pukin Oku, Devontae Adams, really good receivers. There's one guy in the NFC who to me exists in a tier of his own. And when you combine that with now and a group of offensive personnel, know that truly has no weaknesses, right?

1:40:26Like who's the worst starter on the Vikings offense right now?

1:40:30Robert Mays: If Will Fries comes back healthy.

1:40:34Probably whoever is playing wide receiver three, which at that point, like who cares? Sure.

1:40:38Robert Mays: Yeah. So it's, it's some combination of Jalen Naylor and Ty Felton when in actuality you can just pop Josh Oliver in there and you wouldn't even have to worry about your third receiver. And then it's the guy at left guard you drafted in the first round. That that's what you want. when you you don't want the state of your offense to be the guy I drafted to play whatever offensive line position for me in the first round has to be my best offensive lineman. Having him hopefully be your worst offensive player. That's where you want to be as an offense heading into the season combined with a very good play caller.

1:41:11That's a really good point. Like if their first is that is such a funny framing of why they're so good. Their first round pick could be their worst starter and they could be still like a top five offense. That's crazy. Yes. that's crazy you probably can't say that about like any other team that's insane no i i yes i

1:41:29Robert Mays: don't think any other team is relying on their first round pick to that extent again he's just still a starter still matters a lot but i think that is a good way to kind of understand what sort of depth and what sort of top to bottom quality we're talking about here with minnesota all right that was a lot longer than it needed to be on june 17th but um there's so many things to dig into i'm glad we got to chew on that a little bit love doing that exercise if you have not listened to the AFC show did that last week that is available in your feed. So go give it a listen. If you haven't, we'll be back later this week with two more shows, one on Thursday, one on Friday, please be on the lookout for those for now.

1:42:07Robert Mays: That's all we got. Appreciate you guys. Listen, we'll talk to you very soon.

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