Offseason beliefs we won't live to regret (unless we do)

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1:23Dave Helman: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I am your host, Derek Klassen. Robert is out, Dave is out, and today we are doing a similar show to something we did with The Cold Takes Revisited about a month ago, where we saw takes that we had going into the 2025 season were obviously wrong about and kind of had to reconcile with. This show is a little bit of kind of doing that preemptively, where there are takes that we believe, you know, we believe X, Y, and Z about a player or a team or a unit, whatever it may be, but we're leaving the door open that maybe something can change in 2026 and maybe we can be proven wrong.

1:59Dave Helman: And so that's what we're going to do today, bringing on our guest Dan Paisuta of FTN Fantasy. Let's jump right into it.

2:15Dave Helman: All right. You guys are stuck with me. Derek as the host for today. Robert is out. Dave is out. And today I'm being joined by Dan Pazuda. And we are going to have this is almost a sister show to a thing that we had done before. About a month ago on this feed, we did the Cold Takes Revisited podcast, which was horrible things that we said last year that we obviously kind of had to repay for. This is a little bit of a sister show in that we are doing things that we think we believe, but there's an open door that maybe we are going to be wrong about in 2027. And so me hosting this episode solo, Dan, I thought that you would be a really fun guest to have on for this.

2:54Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm happy to be the on deck guy when Robert and Dave are on vacation. So it's always fun to be here.

3:01Dave Helman: And so before we jump into any of them, I want to ask you, when I kind of immediately came to this idea, I had like one or two takes that I was pretty immediately like ready to go to not go to bat for. Obviously, you're almost like going to bat against yourself in a lot of these. But I had one or two ready in the hopper that I was ready for. And then I had a few that I had to look at some rosters, look at some depth charts and be like, OK, maybe I am more open to that. But how many, what was kind of your split of like, when I gave you this prompt, were you ready to go with like six of them? Or was this a, I had to do a little bit of digging and really see how I feel about some of these.

3:35Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, I had a couple in mind that immediately jumped out. And then I've been, you know, deep into FTN Almanac writing over the past couple of weeks. And I'm right in the middle of it. I'm doing six chapters this year.

3:49Dave Helman: So as a man who's also done a six chapter year before, that is you're a brave man.

3:55Dan Pizzuta: This is this is my yeah, this is my first one. I've done four before the past like couple years. Yeah, this is the first six. So it is it is a lot. But that also does naturally kind of give you some things that you might be thinking about. And, you know, whether you disagree with the projections or the projections say something that, you know, common thought isn't really thinking. So, yeah, there are a few things that popped up along the way.

4:20Dave Helman: Okay. Well, as you are the guest, I'm going to let you start with one. You can go either direction. It could be one you had to think about a little bit, or it could be one straight off the dome when I gave you the prompt. Let's hear it.

4:30Dan Pizzuta: All right. Let's start with one that I think is – it was kind of the first one I thought of. I think it is ripe for this show. T.J. Stroud's a good quarterback. Like, I'm pretty confident in that. I also like I'm I've I'm open to being wrong with that because I can see how it continues to go in the way it has but I think we really have not pictured CJ Shroud as like correctly in what he is at a quarterback last year he was 12th in EPA per play and he was 11th in QBR like that is a borderline top 10 quarterback

5:08Dave Helman: that's a good place to start he was not nearly as like

5:12Dan Pizzuta: disastrous as people believe he was last year right so so i have a couple he was only 10th in sack rate he was 10th in pressure to sack rate so he's still good at avoiding all of those things there were so few like in rhythm throws that they were able to get in that offense because of what was was happening he was 33rd in the rate of plays that were between two and a half and three seconds it was a lot of really quick game or it was a lot of kind of running for his life there was not a lot of in between. He still had the eighth lowest rate of inaccurate passes, a sub two interception rate. And I think that's the thing a lot of people get hung up on and feel like he was this turnover prone.

5:48Dan Pizzuta: And like, I know not a lot of people were watching Texans games throughout the regular season. And what we saw in the playoffs was an absolute disaster. That was terrible. That was not what this offense was and not what Stroud was throughout the regular season. He had a sub two interception rate. Houston as a team had the lowest rate of turnovers per drive in the league last year at under 5%. So this was a team that was still holding onto the ball. It still wasn't a great offense, but Shroud was doing the most he could with what that offense was giving him. He only had 49.9 % of his plays came from a clean pocket.

6:24Dan Pizzuta: That was 33rd of 38 quarterbacks with 200 and more dropbacks. And the players behind him, there's a little bit of like stylistic play to this because some of the players behind him were Lamar, Jaden Daniels, Justin Fields, Shador, and Justin Herbert were in there. So some of it's pressure related, some of it's a little play style, you know, with Sanders, that's obviously fleeing the pocket before he should. So that really doesn't account for that. But those play style things don't really apply to Stroud, who wants to stay in the pocket and make plays there. So of that group, only Stroud and Lamar had positive EPA per play.

6:58Dan Pizzuta: So this is a guy who I think was making a lot of a bad situation. And I think we can potentially see this situation get a little better in 2026. But I'm also open to like I see the path to where this doesn't really improve. And we're still kind of saying the same things in theory about him.

7:17Dave Helman: And so I'm glad we laid this out this way because a lot of these takes, we should start off like why we do believe this before getting into the, you know, why we don't. And I think I'm mostly with you. Like, I agree that I think Stroud is still a good quarterback. I think last year was mostly not as bad as it felt like it was, but he's just had over the last two years a couple of individual games that were so bad. Obviously, the playoff run was not good. He had that Jets game, the Seahawks game. There are a couple of these glaring red, oh, no siren games. And then otherwise, he's been pretty good.

7:49Dave Helman: And I think those games are more a product of when you're a young, kind of aggressive player on an incomplete team, those things are going to happen. But I think that's also where we can start getting into kind of what you're saying of how this could go wrong. It's like, well, if you're a young player who's making a lot of those decisions and feeling a lot of those moments and feeling like, oh, man, like things just aren't going right for me. You can start to spiral and snowball a little bit into some of these mistakes. So to that end, like, what are the things about how last year, even the year before a little bit about how those years went, like make you a little bit concerned that maybe he is just stuck being this like quarterback 14.

8:27Dave Helman: And that's more his level rather than the top eight guy that we thought he could be.

8:31Dan Pizzuta: So I think he feels the pressure, not like defensive pressure, but the pressure of the offense and having to be the guy who solves all the problems. and he's not necessarily the, I think we look at him in a different way of like Justin Herbert because when Herbert does some of those things, when everything breaks down and he feels the weight of the offense on his shoulders, he can have some of these superhuman plays that we can point to and be like, he is a reason they are able to do that. With Shroud, that's not quite his skillset. So when he feels that way and he has to kind of go out of structure in that way, that's not necessarily the strength of his game.

9:12Dan Pizzuta: And so I kind of feel like that's some of it too. And then so when he's kind of getting the ball out in quick game, 53 % of his passes were 1 to 10 air yards last year. And he just kind of has to live in that area. I think he's comfortable with doing that. He's accurate to that area. But he's not someone who's going to be kind of pushing the ball down the field when he's trying to kind of make some of that hero play. And I think that that's a bit of a that's a bit of a gap in between like the weight he feels of picking up the offense and kind of what his actual skill set is. And that's I feel like why we don't necessarily view him as one of these, you know, superhuman quarterbacks that can do some of these things when the offense breaks down.

9:55Dave Helman: And I think that that's a really good point because he's not Jared Goff level statue and like can't create and all that sort of stuff. but he's Justin Herbert's a great example right we're like Justin Herbert has been in some of these offenses where he does have to be Hercules on nine out of the ten plays but he is like he's in terms of raw physical talent like as impressive as it gets for the position where CJ Stroud is more like he's not not talented but he's more like B minus as far as like NFL talent goes he can run a little bit but he's not really going to run away from guys can make all the throws on the field but doesn't have like oh my god level velocity and stuff like that and so yeah when you get into these situations where that's what it takes to make the play every single time he has enough of it to get away with it from time to time and in certain games but not over the course of like a ton of these games and I think people are going to read that and or hear that and be like well if he can't do that every game then he's not ever going to be a top five elite quarterback but it's like realistically there's only like three or four of those guys in the NFL at any given time and it's not like a knock that he's not one of those guys like i think we both believe dak is a fantastic quarterback he's not that either you know what i mean but he can still produce at near mvp levels

11:04Dan Pizzuta: with the right conditions right and and i think the the conditions are such a big thing too and you know that's it's part of why i believe he could potentially get better but also part of the path where it might not change is this run game has been absolutely terrible over the past couple years. They were what, like 28th in early down success rate on runs, and that continually puts them in third and long, and then you're asking Stroud to be that player on third down kind of every time. They try to improve the offensive line. I see the vision. I can also see where it doesn't necessarily click in 2026, and kind of that is my concern, that the offensive line and the run game doesn't really change.

11:51Dan Pizzuta: And Stroud is still kind of asked to do some of these hero things on third down.

11:55Dave Helman: So let's do that because that's actually one of my takes is that I am really excited about where the Texans offensive line is going and like what they are trying to do. Obviously, even in my highest world of what they can be, I don't expect them to be like a top six offensive line or whatever it is. But I think a lot of the moves they made make sense and are easy to buy on paper. Like Braden Smith to me is a really good right tackle when he's healthy. I think Ariante Urshiri like played better than people realize at left tackle. It's just there were so many of them to talk about last year. And we imagine the Texans offensive line as a whole is a disaster.

12:30Dave Helman: So we're like, surely the rookie left tackle in that unit couldn't have been any decent. But I think he's got a little bit of something to him. I really liked Keelan Rutledge, the player that they drafted. And obviously they're taking him from guard and in theory playing him at center, which again, like that's where you can open the door for some of this stuff not going well. And then I think signing Wyatt Teller, that's another one where we look at how poorly Cleveland played as a whole last year. They retooled their entire offensive line. It's like surely scraps from that unit that was good four years ago can't be that good.

12:58Dave Helman: But I still think he's got a little bit of something to him. So I think they're all like good individual players and pieces. And I just like the attitude. Like Braden Smith can move people. Teller can move people. Rutledge, I thought, kicked ass in college. Like you can buy what they're trying to be because they started to try to do this last year where it was more duo. It was more six offensive linemen on the field, getting more tight ends. We're trying to it was very Rams ish. They just had like a quarter of the talent that the Rams offensive line had. So they weren't really able to get away with it.

13:28Dave Helman: So for all of those reasons, I can buy it. At the same time, Brayden Smith has not been very healthy recently. He's missed at least four games the last three seasons, including ending last year with like some neck issues, which neck and back stuff, especially for people that heavy, like guys who are playing like 300 plus is always a little bit scary. I like Ariante Ursary. Maybe there's a chance he doesn't progress though. Like I think we always love to do that with young players, but some guys just don't take a huge step. Keelan Rutledge, maybe he can't actually acclimate to center. You know what I mean?

14:00Dave Helman: And then Wyatt Teller is coming up on 32 and he's had a lot of issues himself. So I want to buy it, but I also understand your skepticism.

14:07Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, that's kind of where I came into. And especially because this just is a team that is continually running the ball on early downs too. Has like one of the higher rates of runs on early downs, even when they're trailing, when the offense is struggling. So they put a lot of pressure on that offensive line too. And, you know, it went back to between the past two offensive coordinators still had kind of the same game plan, even when it didn't work out quite as well. So even if it's just okay, I still think you probably need a little bit more improvement for this offense to really function, especially if we still need to see if this receiving core can really step up.

14:53Dan Pizzuta: Again, there are pieces that I like. Nico Collins is great, but are the other receivers, like is Tank Dell ever really going to be healthy? um you know jaylen knows he gonna be able to to step up there there are still some questions i have that i think i can easily talk myself into them i think they're going to be better uh but i could still see where this is we're still wanting a little more from this offense and then i think we're you know kind of putting that on shroud just kind of as a general group think right and i could totally see that too and i think the how a run game helps the quarterback thing can kind of vary

15:32Dave Helman: by the offense, right? Like I think with, like with the Seahawks last year, actually, especially down the stretch, they were kind of able to help Darnold by the fact that like Kenneth Walker, especially the second half of the season, could generate explosives. Like they did not, like every first down did not have to be generated by the passing offense. Whereas I think with an offense like what the Texans are trying to be, where they are very Rams-like, the Rams formula is like, and how they're helping their quarterback is they are always at or ahead of the sticks. It is always second and six. It is always third and two.

16:05Dave Helman: And so they are in these advantageous positions where the quarterback doesn't feel a ton of pressure in terms of like down and distance. It's probably not going to get rushers who are like pinning their ears back immediately and just getting after him. And you can kind of buy that vision with the Texans offense, but it works with the Rams because they were the most sure four yards in like NFL history. You know what I mean? Like they were unbelievably successful. Yeah, their rushing success rate

16:28Dan Pizzuta: was like the highest we've seen in a decade.

16:31Dave Helman: They were phenomenal. And so they didn't generate explosives, but it's like, well, yeah, if we can get into second and five, Matthew Stafford will find the explosives. And the Texas passing offense can do that, right? Like Stroud will hunt for those. Nico Collins can get those. Jaden Higgins, you can just throw up some balls to him every now and then. But one, that element of it is obviously not as good as the Rams. Very few in recent memory have been. But also even if, you know, let's say the Texans run game, you know, being in that realm improves from 30 % of what the Rams are capable of to 60%.

17:02Dave Helman: Is that enough? Like, is that actually enough to get you in enough of those downs and distances? I don't know. I want to believe it, but I don't know.

17:10Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, that's kind of, it feels like the question where I believe if they can, that should work, right? I also think there are some elements of this offense where if we go back to like the offensive line, if it does work, like TJ Sharp barely ran empty at all. last year just because they didn't trust the offensive line to hold up so you were never going to let them be in like a five-man protection uh even though you know i think some of the quick game and stuff like could have worked from there i think if they have more trust like shroud is i think the type of quarterback who can play well from there um so it's just there's there's a lot of pieces where i just don't think this has been an ideal fit for like what this offense could potentially be and getting like the most out of some of these players and you know maybe you have a little bit more efficiency in the run game.

18:00Dan Pizzuta: And if that can work and just keep them at a third and longs, maybe that is enough. But again, I can see where the path to where that doesn't happen and the improvement is not big enough.

18:11Dave Helman: The last thing I'll say on this or really ask you, out of these four changes, how many of them do you think they would need for you to buy it? Like if I could guarantee you two, is that enough? If I could guarantee you three, does it have to be all four kind of hitting on all cylinders like where do you start to feel comfortable with it yeah i or does it depend on which one specifically i that's kind of where

18:35Dan Pizzuta: where i went it kind of you know it depended um you know if they're still sitting out and and like brayden smith not playing a whole lot um i think that may be more detrimental than like Wyatt Teller being good um right so but but I think if like maybe if two of these five pieces play or three of these five pieces play well just kind of in general and maybe that's enough to get them to to average because there were just so many times over the past like couple years where this offensive line really just didn't give this offense a chance at all so I think if if three the five are good like throughout the season then maybe that that's enough yeah hopefully yeah to me

19:18Dave Helman: the big one is probably Rutledge if you can fix center I that hopefully does a lot but it's a big projection there all right that's enough that we did almost 20 minutes of Texans talk to open the show didn't think we would get there but that was good uh what's your what's your next one here

19:30Dan Pizzuta: okay so I can maybe be talked into this but my my full take is I'm pretty sure the Giants offense it's going to be a disaster.

19:42Dave Helman: Okay, that's strong. I like this. I just started, we're going to do a second year quarterback show at some point soon. And so I'm getting ready to watch those guys. And so I've been watching Dart recently. So let's hear it.

19:56Dan Pizzuta: So to start, it's going to take a lot for me to get like on board with the Matt Nagy of it all. And like, that's just kind of, I think where it starts. I've heard a lot of like, he made the playoffs with Mitchell Trubisky, But that rationale just kind of seems insane to me and completely misunderstands what that team was. They were 20th in weighted offensive DVOA that season. They were first by an insane margin in defensive DVOA led by Vic Fangio. So that season, the gap between first and second in defensive DVOA was the same as the gap between second and 11th. That's how good that Bears defense was.

20:36Dan Pizzuta: So sure, if you want to give Matt Nagy credit for making the playoffs with Nittal Trubisky, I think that vastly misrepresents what that team was. To go back to what the Chiefs were these past couple years, we saw continued regression, not just from the performance, but in ideas from that offense. That concerns me a little bit. And then the Chiefs didn't really want anything to do with him this offseason. And like that was very much the quiet firing that are the soft firing that we've I think we've talked about for a couple of things. And I have questions about. Just kind of the some of the players, too, so Dart was better than I would have given him credit for coming into the season.

21:25Dan Pizzuta: He played better than what I thought he was as a prospect. But a lot of that came from the rushing, which we all believe is unsustainable, one, in efficiency, and two, in the way he runs. He was hit on 18 % of his dropbacks, which is 31st in the league. And he wasn't that great at actually avoiding sacks when he was running. He was still 32nd in sack rate, 32nd in pressure to sack rate. And if you take out his scramble, so on plays that just had a pass attempt or a sack, he dropped to 28th in EPA per play and 35th in success rate. So I think there is still a lot of fundamental quarterbacking that needs to improve for him to have this offense go forward.

22:07Dan Pizzuta: I can be open to being wrong that he has kind of shown the development. I think if you look at some of the metrics, everything kind of except success rate is close to what Drake May was in his rookie season. I think those were two very different situations. Drake May had one of the best success rates we've seen from a rookie, and that was much different than Dart. But I think a lot of some of the other underlying metrics, especially with the presence in the pocket and things like that, I think Drake May was a much better quarterback. But I think there is a path. so I think this kind of goes wrong but I could see where I might not be giving Dart and some of the other offensive pieces enough credit to on Dart specifically and Matt Nagy to be fair I think

22:52Dave Helman: I'm mostly in the same boat right and they both a lot of their success in some ways comes from a lot of the same places like when Matt Nagy did have if we want to call it success with Mr. Trubisky it was a lot of RPO it was a lot of quick game it was a lot of sprinting this guy out it was a lot of designed quarterback run which like I think those are things that can work in bunches and they can work for a year or two they cannot be like the foundation of a good offense and a good player over sustained periods of time and so maybe if you do that for one more year that gives Dart just enough of like a you know baseline to where he can actually learn the other stuff I am also a little bit more dubious of that just because where he's coming from in college I do not think that he showed very high level processing as uh as an NFL player so far obviously there are certain parts of his game that I do like like um he's talented enough like he can make enough of the throws and there's enough pop in his arm especially up until about the 25 yard range like I think super deep down the field he struggles but 0 to 25 he's good he's got a little bit of like make something happen to him which again is sometimes goes the other way where he tries to make too much happen and he gets, you know, knocked in his rib cage probably too many times.

24:04Dave Helman: But you at least appreciate that he has the ability to not feel pressure and go make some of those plays. And I appreciate that. But I'm probably in the same boat that, like, even if he was better than I thought he would be as a rookie, I think that is mostly anchored in, like, well, because of the offense and I didn't love him as a prospect, that the expectation was just so low that that's kind of where he arrived. But I want to hear your thoughts now on where you think it could go right for them. Because I will say, like, even if I have some questions about Nagy or about, you know, Dart's ability as an individual to create good offense, the offense is relatively talented.

24:41Dave Helman: Like, they have enough pieces here to make something out of it.

24:44Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, I think, you know, it starts with Malik Nabors being healthy. I think that's still one of my concerns where, you know, the second surgery is coming in. They're not totally sure about what a timeline of him coming in. But if he can get in early in the season and plays, I don't know, 14 games, I think that's, you know, Malik and Abridge is awesome. And I think that is like kind of a get out of jail free card for any quarterback. So I think that's how you open that up. And then I think that makes the rest of the receiving core make a lot of sense, too, where you have guys who can get down the field, like a Slayton, Mooney, and Malachi field, too.

25:23Dan Pizzuta: I'm not super high on any of those individually, but if they're your wide receiver two or three with Malik Nabors, I think that helps a little more. If the offensive line comes together, I think this is a better offensive line than given credit for. It's certainly not the offensive line of like the early Daniel Jones, Taequann Barkley years where it was a disaster. They were okay. You know, if Andrew Thomas is healthy, you know, you kind of still wonder about Francis Mauno is back. But if he is healthy, definitely helps at guard. Jermaine Illuminor was a pretty good right tackle. And I'm happy they were able to resign him.

26:05Dan Pizzuta: And I think that just kind of gives them some more flexibility along this offensive line. So if things like that play out to kind of maybe their 75th, 80th percentile results where they can be that good, I think that's maybe this offense can be average to above average. And that's going to be a huge boost to what the Giants have been over the past couple of years.

26:33Dave Helman: and even that like I mentioned some of the talent like that's they signed Isaiah Likely which was surprising to me slightly because I think Theo Johnson is a really good player but also we're moving into a world where a lot of teams want 12 uh you know be able to operate in 12 personnel and Likely is very different player than Theo Johnson anyway like Theo Johnson is you're on the line wide tight end does a lot of that sort of stuff whereas Likely is really more of just like a six foot five wide receiver which is fine like he obviously does really good at that And so you can see, I'm glad you mentioned like the neighbor's health thing.

27:05Dave Helman: Like, I think a lot of the times now with injuries, we kind of just assume guys will come back fine, especially the guys who were just hyper insane athletes. And he obviously is. Second surgery does scare you a little bit. And there's a chance that he's 75 % of himself in this one year. And that would, that would like make everybody else's job a lot harder, certainly. And so I think that this one was a good one to bring up because they've been a tough one for me to get a handle on because there are again if I just remove like quarterback and offensive coordinator what I think of those guys over the last couple of years you can get me there on this being like a relatively interesting ecosystem for a quarterback and play caller but I think those two just have a lot to prove to me Nagy it's obviously he's been doing this for a long time he's probably going to be what he's going to be a lot of it is going to be the x factor of whatever we get out of Jackson Dart.

27:54Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, and that's just, that combination gives me the pause. I can see where it is okay. And so I'm, this is one where I'm willing to see the path to where it can be. I will listen to the people who believe this is going to be an improvement over what it was. But I still lean on, I'm not completely sold on this. But again, willing to be wrong.

28:23Dave Helman: Yeah, that's where I'm at too. All right. Really quickly before we move into my next one, we're going to take a little break here. This episode is brought to you by Pura. Why limit your favorite fragrance to just one room? With Pura, you can build a whole home scenting system that moves with your day. Put a Pura home next to your bed, a Pura Home Plus in your open living room, and a Pura Home Mini in the bathroom, controlling them all seamlessly from the app. One home, one connected fragrance experience. Visit Pura.com slash whole home to get started. Look, I'm a sports media guy, and so that means I've got, I don't know, 20, 30 hoodies in my closet.

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30:44Dave Helman: all right we're back and I'm as I'm looking at my notes and thinking about the ones that we've already done I've realized that for whatever reason I've landed mostly on offensive uh issues here and so I don't even know if I have a defensive one I want to jump to so we're going to stay in kind of the quarterback offensive realm I'm pretty sure Kyler Murray is going to be fine with the Vikings like I think people are being a little bit ridiculous about like oh you know I think it's almost like the CJ Stroud thing last year where it's like if you look at the numbers like I think it's easy to be like oh Kyler Murray was benched and we've been frustrated by him with year for years and stuff like that and some of his bad moments are really annoying and then you look and he's like was a pretty middle of the pack quarterback last year which is not really congruent with again us a lot of people talking about him like oh he's gonna have to compete with JJ McCarthy who was awful less and it's like that's come on Kyler Murray is going to be the starting quarterback and they're probably going to be fine.

31:40Dave Helman: And so I mostly believe that they're going to be good because again, I think his baseline is so much higher than people realize, even if he can be a little bit inconsistent and frustrating. And I get that like the scheme fit is a little bit different than what Kyler Murray is used to. And that was maybe part of the issue in Arizona and all that stuff. But like, to me, it's just the Vikings are going from like bottom of the barrel quarterback play to even if Kyler Murray is just quarterback 17, that is leaps and bounds better than what they got. And so even if there's fits and starts, and even if it's a little bit inconsistent, the throws that he can make five times a game are just so much different than what, you know, whatever they got out of the position last year, whether it was McCarthy or Wentz or Max Brosner for that game or two.

32:26Dave Helman: And so I feel like this is just going to work. at the same time some of the concerns people have are not like unfounded you know the idea that it's a weird scheme fit like i think it'll be fine but yeah kevin o 'connell has typically been a lot more under center and like play action heavy than than kyler murray i think it's used to or has shown what he can do at his best i think part of the value of having kyler murray is you can get into the gun and even if you don't run him a lot there's at least the threat of it and that changes what you can do. Well, Kevin O 'Connell has never really done a whole lot of that stuff.

32:59Dave Helman: You know what I mean? And so you can see how it gets a little bit incongruent. Maybe there is a chance that because Murray is, he's not old, obviously, but he's been a little bit banged up in a guy who has ran around a lot. And there's a chance that maybe he just doesn't have his legs the way that he had three years ago. And maybe he's a little bit more uncomfortable in the pocket than he was three years ago. And so there is, I'm at least opening the door for the possibility of those things, even if I think like this is going to be fine.

33:25Dan Pizzuta: yeah i'm so i'm i'm fully with you here i was i toyed with this i have another vikings one that that's coming up but um yeah because i did write the the viking chapter for the almanac this year

33:39Dave Helman: uh and the last time perfect person to have on for this and the last time i was on with you we

33:43Dan Pizzuta: were we were talking about kyler a little bit and so i i also went back in and wrote about him like after he got released and again i i agree that we kind of talk about kyler murray in the wrong way If you look at like his EPA per play and access rate over the past five years, it's like already higher than like the Sam Darnold's, the like the Bakers, the like Daniel Jones. And that is with those players like reclamation years already built in. So Murray is already starting at least where they were. And then he has now this offensive structure that I think can certainly help him. To go back to the structure of the offense, in 2024, which was, I think, a pretty good year for Murray, one, he had a higher EPA per play than Sam Darnold did during his Vikings year.

34:35Dan Pizzuta: So the year that we say Sam Darnold was bounced back and had this great year, Kyler still had higher EPA per play than he did that year in Arizona. He also ran the fifth most under center play action dropbacks that season. And he was okay. He wasn't great, but still showed that he was able to do it and added so much other value in everything else that made up for him just being kind of average in under center play action. So I think there's a lot of things he can do really well there. And he's a quarterback that I think we kind of touched on last time. The floor with Kyler is so much higher than he's given credit for.

35:12Dan Pizzuta: We really kind of, as a general public, view him as this high variance type of player, but he has a very high floor that he's been able to, and has not really bottomed out in any year outside of like the ones he's been injured. So I think when, to go back to like why this might not work, he's a very inconsistent deep ball thrower. Like at his best, he's incredible. And like you said, like going back and watching Kyler, even last year, there are maybe two or three throws a game that would be better than anything J.J. McCarthy did last season. So that's there. It's not always consistent. But again, I think there's a floor of at least like average here, which could be enough.

35:55Dan Pizzuta: And maybe that's not enough for it to like really matter and have the Vikings be this, you know, fun offense. But I'm with you that I think this works. But like you said, I can also see the path where it's just kind of OK.

36:10Dave Helman: So the deep ball I actually want to dig into because I think there are other aspects of the Kyler Murray downfall that are just like, it's the Cardinals, things happen, maybe it's a weird scheme fit. But the deep ball has been kind of absent for him in the past few years in a way that it was obviously not early in his career. And so I want to ask you, like, do you think that that is something that is real? Is that more wide receiver driven with some of the players that he's played with? was he not as comfortable just throwing like the get under center throw a play action post as opposed to like hey deandre hopkins is running a go ball on the sideline i'm gonna take my alert

36:42Dan Pizzuta: and that's that yeah i think it's a little bit of of all of those things i think especially when you go back to like 2024 that the or even last year the the chemistry with marvin harrison jr just like it wasn't there and i think that was that was really tough so there were a lot of like inaccurate passes when they were trying to hammer all of those back shoulders. And I think that was a lot of kind of where the deep ball inaccuracy came from. And there was no one who was like fully running deep with speed in that offense. So I think there were just kind of a few pieces that where it didn't really make for the ideal situation for some of the deep ball.

37:23Dan Pizzuta: And then he was throwing it less and less. Last year, I mean, in the limited time he had, only 9.9 % of his throws were over 20 air yards. And 50 % of those came when pressured. And that's usually like when you're throwing deep off pressure, that's usually when there's no plan against pressure and you're just throwing it deep to throw it deep. So I think there are some issues there where, again, I kind of trust Kevin O 'Connell to have a lot more structure, to have a plan in place when some of these things go wrong. I mean, you're going to be throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison now.

37:53Dan Pizzuta: I think that helps you with a deep ball a little more where you do not have to be pinpoint accurate on a lot of these throws, kind of like you were back when with what he was dealing with in Arizona.

38:05Dave Helman: That's mostly where I land on that too. Like I think if we're just like wiping the slate clean and using average rosters, whatever, like I do think he's a better deep ball thrower as like my number one on the outside is just running a go ball. I can layer it out there for him or I can throw it a little bit back shoulder. He can go and get it. I think he has a very good sensor ability to do that. And he's not as much of the like, get under center throw the deep post the way that like a prime Matt Ryan could or Dak Prescott will or something like he's just not that style of thrower and so that is part of why you can get me to like keep the door open of like maybe this doesn't work out because that's probably more of what he's going to actually be asked to do in this offense rather than just throw the alert go ball even though they did do a little bit of that last year obviously for JJ McCarthy and any offense will to some degree at the same time if he's doing some of the weird scheme fit stuff where it has to be a little bit more under center.

38:55Dave Helman: And some of those deep balls are more towards the middle of the field. Like you said, it's Justin Jefferson. Like at a certain point, like you just kind of have to get it in the area, knowing to throw it and he's going to be able to go and get those. And I think even if it's not perfect, I think it can be better than what they got out of the position last year.

39:11Dan Pizzuta: Yeah. And I think the, the bar is, is really low for, for what it was last year. Like the, the amount of times for the, you know, a couple of the chapters that I wrote where, you know, where the amount of times I wrote like above only Shador Sanders when talking about quarterback stats it was that came up sometimes in the Viking chapter so I don't think the bar is necessarily super high for Kyler to come in and be an improvement how much of an improvement I think is is still the question I'm with you where I I believe it's it's higher than I think a lot of people are giving him credit for I also see where we you know we might be underwhelmed

39:51Dave Helman: just a little bit right and to before we move on to put like a final pin in the schematic stuff in in 2024 the the cardinals did use a lot more under center play action and kyler was totally fine out of it but in 2025 they did use less of it like his early down under center rate dropped to 11.5 which was actually one of the lower marks in the league he was at about 22 in 2024 which 22 23 percent is about what brissette was at when he took over in 2025 so there clearly was some sort of like push and pull with murray where like he did it in 2024 clearly did not want to do more of it in 2025 or whatever and for reference darnold in 2024 was the third highest at 39 percent uh obviously with kevin o 'connell and then jj mccarthy last year was the sixth highest at 34 So even if Murray did more of it, even in 2022, he was still like a notch or two below what he would, you know, what he is going to be asked to do in Minnesota.

40:48Dave Helman: So there is some amount of like, who knows with that sort of thing.

40:52Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, it's I'm I'm fascinated to see it. It's kind of one of the things I'm most interested in seeing, because I think the the upside is, I think, still really high. And I think there's still, you know, where this ends up where they're still an average team. But I think if this does work out, it's going to be super fun. All right.

41:12Dave Helman: So what's your next one? Did you kind of hinted a Vikings one or do you have a defense one? Yeah.

41:17Dan Pizzuta: So it's all Vikings defense. And this is kind of going.

41:21Dave Helman: Vikings defense. Perfect. You have both. Yes.

41:23Dan Pizzuta: So this is going a bit like with what we have in the projections of the FTN Almanac this year. And the projections have the Vikings dropping down as like closer to an average defense. And my belief is I think Brian Flores can do this again. But I also see where the projections can potentially be right. Because this is a defense that can be very high variance just in the way it's played, right? They're blitzing over 50 % of the time. And the way FTN tracks blitzes is it has to be like an unknown or an uncommon rusher is coming in. So when the Vikings line up five guys along the defensive line and they send those five, that's not even being charted as a blitz.

42:11Dan Pizzuta: So they're still at 50 % when those aren't being charted as blitzes. So it's very high variance in that way. I think you're kind of wondering what the edge position is going to be. Right now, it's Andrew Van Ginkle and Dallas Turner, who you're hoping kind of steps up a little bit. But behind them is Tyler Batty, who's a 2025 undrafted free agent, and Bo Richter, who's a 2024 undrafted free agent. And that's their edge depth right now. So I think you can potentially have some concerns there, and maybe it's not as good as it was. But why I'm kind of holding out hope before we get into some of the other reasons why it might not work.

42:54Dan Pizzuta: Last year, there was a similar projection between them not being as good as they were the previous years, and they ended up being third and second in DVOA the past two years. We know sustaining a high-level defense is harder than it is for offense from year to year. That's not necessarily the case so much anymore. So of the top 10 defenses in 2025, seven were in the top 10 in 2024. That is an incredibly high number. It's a lot different from only two top 10 defenses from 2023 repeated in 2024. So we did see a very unusually high rate of defenses sustained from year to year. But I think there are a lot of things that Flores can do, obviously, with the Blitzes.

43:42Dan Pizzuta: If those work, I think this defense is still going to be pretty good. I think there's still just a lot of questions that we have personnel-wise. Like, is this still going to be a three safety type of defense that allows Josh Metellus to kind of play all over the place? You don't have Harrison Smith anymore. So is that just going to be like a Jay Ward thing? They drafted Jacoby Thomas in the third round. Do they trust him enough to do that? I love the idea of Kayla Banks and Dominique Orange in the middle of that defense, but that's relying on two rookies. And we don't really know the health of Kayla Banks for a full year.

44:18Dan Pizzuta: So there's a lot of questions here, but I think if it all breaks right, this is, again, a really good defense that I trust Brian Flores with. I can see where some of these pieces, at least for 2026, don't fit quite as well or as quickly as they need to for this to be a top defense again this year.

44:38Dave Helman: So I actually want to ask you two questions, and I want to start with last year. What do you think made them resilient against the projections last year? Obviously, Brian Flores is a very good defensive mind, but were there specific things that you thought that he was accomplishing? Or was it a player or two stepped up in a way that maybe the projections were not ready for or whatever it may be?

44:59Dan Pizzuta: So this is this is the time to shout out Jalen Redman, who was monster.

45:03Dave Helman: Awesome. He was so good.

45:05Dan Pizzuta: He was so good. So FTN tracks blown blocks against the run. And Jalen Redman was second among all defenders. only Max Crosby was better in blown blocks forced on run plays. And that was with him playing kind of a tweener. He played some inside. He played some on the end. I think he's going to be a little more interior this year. Man, he's so much fun. And he was, you know, top, I think, 20 in the pressures from the interior also. So, like, that is a guy who certainly stepped up. I think it's just a lot of this defense doesn't do anything poorly, right? It's usually just kind of structured and the fundamentals are so good everywhere.

45:50Dan Pizzuta: Where even if they have a high litz rate, the pressure rate isn't super high. It's around, like it's just above league average. So it's not like they're creating crazy pressure. When the pressure does get home, it's insane. It's usually very high negative plays. But also there's no coverage bus usually. So they're just playing fundamentally sound football behind everything too. And just having all that pressure and the blitzes and everything. And they're running one of the highest rates of simulated pressures too. So they're just adding so much where the opposing quarterbacks just did not know who was coming.

46:27Dan Pizzuta: And I think that makes playing offense against them very difficult. Even if some of the players aren't all-stars in the way they're being put on the field. and the personnel might not have the same, you know, the heights as some of these other, like, great defense. Like, this wasn't Houston's defense in, like, how there's an all-pro at every level.

46:50Dave Helman: It's like, as an idea, it's unsound, right? Like, just how often they're blitzing, all the crazy shit they're doing in terms of movement and stuff. Like, it feels unsound, and then you watch it, and it's like, oh, every player knows exactly where they're supposed to be. They know exactly their job. It's very much like watching, you know, during, like, the peak Clemson days, is like what Brent Venables was doing with a lot of his Clemson defense. Just like it feels a lot more chaotic than it actually is when you watch a lot of the pieces. And so I do think Flores absolutely has that going for him.

47:17Dave Helman: Like I'm I probably actually land somewhere more in the middle. Like I think that they can still be a pretty good unit. I think I would be more surprised if they were able to maintain like top six status again this year. And I think there are a couple of reasons for that. You touched on the edge depth. The edge depth terrifies me because I think in some ways it's intuitive to be like, well, if we're blitzing more and we're just winning the problem by like creating, you know, bodies and getting free rushers and stuff, well, then we don't really need edge depth as much. But part of the value in blitzing is that you always generate the one on ones that you want.

47:50Dave Helman: And a player like Jonathan Grenard can win a lot of those one on ones in a way that I'm not like Dallas Turner, I think, took a step last year. I'm not sure that he's going to be close to what Grenard is as like a pure pass rusher. And so that scares me a little bit. And then there's the other element of it where I think early on last year when they were trying to figure out what they wanted to be in terms of, you know, they brought in a bunch of they brought in two veteran defensive tackles, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave. They were trying to rework that room. I think they wanted to be less of a send the house type of defense.

48:23Dave Helman: And they were early in the year and they were kind of mid like they just weren't as good as I thought they could be. and then down the stretch they actually turned it back up the pressure they were like actually that stuff sucked we can't do that as well as we wanted we're gonna bring the house again we're bringing six and seven rushers we're doing all this weird stuff and they became good again and i think it's easy to be like well if they just stick back to that mentality then they can be really good again but it it felt more to me like they were trying to take steps to be something else they recognized they needed to be and ultimately couldn't get there and had to default to what they were.

48:56Dave Helman: And now I wonder if you take away some of the talent that the holes in that are actually going to start to pop up a little bit more. Yeah, that's certainly where this goes wrong

49:06Dan Pizzuta: and it's not as good. I think, you know, like I said, the safety depth is kind of worrying too, how they play. I mean, they could play more like three corners because another favorite is like James Pierre, one of the signings you guys have talked about a lot. Like that is something where you can play him. You still have Isaiah Rogers, maybe play Byron Murphy in the slot a little more, which he did earlier in his career. So I think there are certainly pathways to do that. I think like this is one team that goes like four deep at linebacker. You know, Jake Galday, who probably would be a weird fit in 31 defenses in this league.

49:47Dan Pizzuta: You put him in Brian Flores and it's like, yes, absolutely. This is what I want. that guy who played like 40 % of his snaps as like a slot overhang and then blitzed like crazy. Like that is exactly what you want in this defense.

49:59Dave Helman: Every draft has players where I'm like, I don't like you when I watch you. And then they get like when it comes to draft weekend and a team takes him, I'm like, oh, well, I kind of get it there actually. And Brian Flores is literally the one spot where Jake Goldale is like, oh, a weird linebacker kind of has a pass rusher body but plays the apex. Yeah, I'm sure Brian Flores has like a chance to make that work. Yep.

50:21Dan Pizzuta: Yeah. So I think it's – there are places where I think they can make up for some of this. And, you know, there's still edge rushers on the market, right? I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with someone who's just, you know, competent and is able to at least add depth. Because I don't think they go in like the four guys they have right now. I don't know how that's manageable. So I would see that potentially gets helped in some way. But yeah, so like I said, the take is I think they'll still be good, but I understand the pathway to this being just kind of okay. And I think like for just the Vikings as a whole, it's I'm the whole thing is how much of a balance do you need for the offense to be good enough for to balance out the defensive regression that might be coming.

51:12Dan Pizzuta: And I think that's just kind of one of the most fascinating things I'm going to watch in the 2026 season.

51:17Dave Helman: That's a good one. I always like to see how Brian Flores can get himself out of a jam. I'm always down for that one. All right. Before we get into one more for each of us, we're going to take a quick break here. When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products and fast, dependable delivery. so you can keep your facility stocked, safe, and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or just stop by.

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53:00Dave Helman: All right, we're coming back around to me and I'm saving this one for last for me at least because

53:10Dave Helman: I think this has been a hot button topic on the show for a while because of just how I feel about this player we're gonna do the Bo Nix thing a little bit okay I I don't think that he's that great I will say I think the way I talk about him makes it feel like it's a crazier take than it is like I know Mina and and Ben Solak just did their quarterback draft show and I think Bo Nix went like 21st or something like that if I were to rank the quarterbacks that's about where they would go to me a lot of the Bo Nix thing is just like aesthetically I do not enjoy watching him play it feels like a lot of the worst versions of Derek Carr where it's checking down a lot it's It's, you know, just getting rid of the ball and not really being as aggressive as you want.

53:47Dave Helman: And so I think because of a lot of those things, it's hard for me to get on board with Bo Nix potentially being one of those guys who can crack into the top eight. Like, you know, to mention some of the work that you guys do over at FTN, Bo Nix led the NFL in by volume in failed completions again, like two years in a row. And so by rate, he's a little bit better. He comes out more to like 26th out of the 38 quarterbacks. But when you're throwing that many passes, it's kind of frustrating to have that many of them be failed completions, which is for those not familiar. It's basically like if we need, you know, on third and seven, we need seven yards.

54:22Dave Helman: He'll get you three. It's like, well, that doesn't do anything for you. Or on a second and then 12, you get two yards. It's like, well, that doesn't really do anything for you. Just certain stuff like that. He has a lot of those plays. And I think similarly, he doesn't give you that many explosives right now. He was 22nd out of 26 quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts this past year in explosive pass percentage at about 11.5%. The only guys below him were Aaron Rodgers, who I think in a lot of ways kind of plays very similarly. There's just a little bit more creativity and mobility to the way that, you know, Knicks can play right now.

54:54Dave Helman: Bryce Young, Geno Smith and Cam Ward. So a lot of the worst quarterbacks in the league and then a rookie on a really, really bad Titans team. and so you have a lot of those issues that I have with him and then to distill how I feel about his play style and where he can be a frustrating player for me when pressured last year Bo Nix threw to the sticks 37.4 percent of the time according to True Media which is not only the lowest number last year and the only player below 40 percent it is the lowest mark of the last five years and so this to me it's just like the issue is that he's a player that I think when push comes to shove and you've got to make a play it just does not feel like he's aggressive enough to me at the same time let's let's open up the possibility that he can be good and I'll start by saying the offense has already proven it can be good with him playing this way like the Broncos offense was good and functional last year obviously the offensive line rocks and Sutton is good but But he did enough to keep the train on the tracks.

55:55Dave Helman: And obviously, you can produce good offense this way. And I would also say that there are some things that he does well. I don't think he's a super interception avoider. But he mostly doesn't throw them. Most games he can go without having thrown an interception. Part of that is play style driven. He does not take sacks. His sack rate is low. And his pressure to sack rate is very low. He's a guy who he'll throw the ball away. He'll dirt it. He'll scramble. He is a pretty good scramble. He does not take those negative plays. And so we always talk about like the run game, right? Of like, oh, the run game is getting us into second and six.

56:26Dave Helman: Well, there's also a value in having a quarterback who on first and 10 doesn't get you into second and 16. And Bo Nix does do a very, very good job of that. And I will say too, like he, I think in some ways was better at the second half of last season. Like he did start to show some growth where I think the deep ball started to connect a little bit better. He had some of his best individual games, like the Packers game was obviously fantastic. uh the second Raiders game he played even if the first one was disgusting the second one was really really good um that Commanders game he had played really well and so he did have some of these moments and he is talented right like I think there are some guys where Tua Tungabailoa was a perfect example of this right like that Dolphins offense obviously worked in a very specific way and he was pretty accurate but he was not mobile and he's really not a guy who had any sort of strength to pressure every part of the field.

57:16Dave Helman: Nix at least has that in theory, even if I think he needs to get better at tapping into it like he can push the ball. He has enough velocity. He is a good guy who can like he can get outside of the pocket. He can scramble. He has slightly more creativity outside of the pocket than I probably have given him credit for. So like he's got these things. And so I'm willing to believe that it could be good now with Jalen Waddell. I just I don't think I actually believe that we're going to get there.

57:42Dan Pizzuta: Yeah. So let me ask you, like, what would you actually like to see from him in order to like really believe? Like, because I think there's certainly a path where he continues to like be the same type of quarterback and it's still productive. Totally. I understand where like that still might not sell you a little bit. What is it that you could see him really improve in that would be like, oh, something clicked for him. And I now like kind of understand where this could go.

58:15Dave Helman: So that's good. And I'm glad you mentioned the productivity. Like he could if he is the same quarterback this year, like in 2026 that he was in 2025, but you just add the Jalen Waddle element of it. This could still very well be like the eighth best offense in the league. Like it's situations can be such that a quarterback can produce, even if I think he is imperfect, because he's not again, he's not like dog shit. He's not completely terrible. I just think he's more like a little bit below average and has a couple of these moments. I think for him to get to a place where I appreciate his game a little bit more, I think it would have to be some more tight window throwing.

58:49Dave Helman: Like I think just especially over the middle of the field, like I think he has some of these moments when he's outside the pocket that he'll do something a little bit aggressive. I think within the rhythm of the play, he is often not very aggressive, especially in the 8 to 20 yard range. Like every now and then they'll run like a frontside dagger concept and he'll throw the dig that he's been looking at frontside the entire time. But like he doesn't really get to the backside dig a lot. You know, he doesn't really get to a lot of those aggressive intermediate throws. And so I would like to see more of that.

59:20Dave Helman: And I would also like to see him, even though I think athleticism wise, he is a very good he is a pretty good scramble. like he's a guy who can move he can he's actually sturdy enough to like a run through tacklers if he needs to as well he doesn't just get like pulled down on first contact all the time I still feel though like there are too many moments where he's a little bit quick to pull the ripcord and he's a little bit quick to want to get out and just throw the ball away or want to get out and just get a three yard scramble instead of like actually looking for plays and I know that's a little bit of like talking out of both sides of my mouth because again one of the things that he does really well is he doesn't take negative plays.

59:54Dave Helman: But I think to grow and kind of find a better middle ground is he's got to start testing the waters a little bit more. And I think it's why it's so frustrating with him, right, is I think sometimes we have quarterbacks who play this way and they play that way because they have to, right, where they are not the best athletes, they don't have the best arms. And so you have to play this very calculated style of, you know, non-aggressive football but it's frustrating because nicks can do it like there are flashes and there are moments where i he can obviously do it and i just want to see him like really put the pedal uh metal pedal to the metal on a lot of that stuff yeah and i i'll i'll agree with that

1:00:35Dan Pizzuta: and you just kind of look at his play style uh last year 14.7 percent of his passes went between 11 19 air yards into the intermediate level of the field which is like the most valuable area to throw passes when you just kind of break it down. That rate was 31st in the league. So it's one of Joe Lois. He just doesn't really throw there. I look at a lot of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. It's something where you can live that way, I think, to really be a quarterback that elevates an offense, which I think is kind of how mixed believers will talk about him. It's not quite what he has been doing so far.

1:01:14Dan Pizzuta: And then one of the other things is that makes him, I think, more frustrating than maybe he really is as a quarterback is when he just misses these layups. It's like there's just Sean Payton will design a wide open play down the field and Nick's just won't hit it. And I think some of the misses like look really bad. And he does, again, make up for it in some other ways. This is still a very productive offense. uh but i think it's just like when you see those just like man and so it's hard to really wrap your head around like this is a good quarterback when you know some of those some of those misses and some of those deep shots like really don't don't hit like they could where it just feels like there's so much more left on the field than there might be otherwise and that's a really good point

1:02:03Dave Helman: too is that i don't think he's inaccurate but he is not as accurate as you would need to be to maximize this play style like yeah I think older Drew Brees and obviously Drew Brees was an excellent processor and that's a more difficult one to get to but I think a more realistic version of this was like Chiefs Alex Smith like Chiefs Alex Smith was not particularly an aggressive passer he was quick to check down he was quick to throw the ball away didn't take sacks but he was so quick to get the ball out and so accurate that it was like well this can work and I think Bo Nix isn't all the way there obviously he hasn't played in the NFL for 10 years but I think you have to get there for this play style to I think be as effective as it needs to be and so he's not there yet he may be able to do that in three four years playing this way but I would rather him like try to branch out a little bit more and become a more well-rounded quarterback than trying to just maximize that play style as like a talented 25 year old you know like Alex Smith arrives there because he's 30 some odd years old and has had like a brutalized career before that with the Niners.

1:03:05Dave Helman: You know what I mean? And so it just feels like there's more left on the bone that Knicks could be doing. And I would just like to see a little bit more of that out of him.

1:03:14Dan Pizzuta: Yeah, and that makes sense. And I think it kind of goes back to a little bit what we were talking about with the Vikings too, because as much as we love this Denver defense, like it might not always be this amazing defense that's just kind of wrecking games and giving the offense really advantageous positions to be in. And in that spot, you need the offense to be a little better and be able to sustain a little more on its own and have the quarterback be the driving force of that, which I don't think Nix has been to this point. He's been a very good kind of piece of this offense, but has not been the driver of it in the way that you kind of need some of these top end

1:03:54Dave Helman: quarterbacks to be yes you can win around what bo nix gives you but winning with is like a jared goff style of quarterback where it's like he is actually actively helping you do a lot of these things and i just think that there's some room to grow before nix actually gets into that tier all right do you have one more you want to throw to us before we get out of here yeah i'll i'll do

1:04:14Dan Pizzuta: one more um okay so it's kind of we're we'll split both sides of the ball here i still think the Travis Hunter thing can work.

1:04:22Dave Helman: I'm playing both sides. Really? Okay. Let's hear this one. Cause I'm a little bit more dubious, I think.

1:04:27Dan Pizzuta: Okay. But I mean, I think the, the torn ACL kind of warped a lot of people into thinking the rookie year just wasn't good. And like he was, he was good on, on both sides of the ball. I think he's, he, it's a bummer because the last game he had on offense was awesome. We had eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. And it kind of seemed like he really got it as a receiver. He was starting to figure it out. And I think we go back to like what he was in college. And as a prospect, he was a productive receiver, but I don't really think he knew what he was doing. So it was one of these where I think he could, you know, just more reps could have worked.

1:05:05Dan Pizzuta: And then on defense, only 126 coverage snaps, but he was 36 in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap, which kind of waits touchdowns and interceptions allowed. So he was a really good corner. I think it makes sense to play him more at corner. But I think, so per John Shipley, who does really good work covering the Jaguars, Hunter was close with the offense during the first practices of OTAs yesterday. He didn't practice, obviously, because of the injury, but he was in a wide receiver jersey. and spent the afternoon tied to the hip of the receiver unit in the offense and had a walkie-talkie to hear the offensive calls.

1:05:49Dan Pizzuta: So he has been playing, still working with the offense a little bit. Liam Cohen said Hunter's been spending time in like an expanded VR room that they have in the facility to get reps on defense, kind of look at formations and things and alignment and everything and get kind of those mental reps there. so I don't think he's going to be like a full-time two-way player I don't think that was ever potentially realistic but the fact that he can still be a good cornerback and get some snaps at receiver like I don't think this is going to be a defense and no offense type thing so I still think this is a way he can play and it's still going to be a very valuable piece of this offense are really of this team in general.

1:06:40Dan Pizzuta: And I really think he's going to be able to make a difference on both sides of the ball still.

1:06:46Dave Helman: I actually like this a lot because I think this is forcing me to check my priors with him where I think part of what I, you know, kind of thought going in was, it's not that I didn't think that he could play wide receiver. It's just I had two thoughts. First, special cornerback prospect. like just the way that he could move the way that he attacked the ball the way that he finds the ball in the air um his quickness his footwork just like if he was like eight pounds heavier he'd be the best cornerback prospect I've ever seen like he just was so so good there and I was just like well I would want to give him more time to do that especially because I think like defensively learning that mentally was probably going to be a little bit harder in the NFL and so that was I didn't want to like take mental time away from that to do that as an offensive player um and I think generally like learning the NFL as a rookie is really hard playing one position let alone playing two I was like man I just don't know how you can do that and so but but maybe that to me was an issue of like that's why his rookie year won't go well or as well as we would want it to but when he gets a second offseason and he's got like more time and obviously when he was you know taking time with rehab I'm sure he's doing a lot of mental work like that can actually probably get him up to speed enough that he can be a high level player at both of these positions and so you make a good point that like obviously the Rams game that he played at the end there some of just the individual catches that he made like was it I think it was the Chiefs game where like Trevor just chucked one up to him and he made that like insane uh grab in the air like 40 yards down the field like just an unbelievable talent and so I this is one that I've had to like get myself into opening we almost have like we're mirrors here where you believe this can work where you're open to like maybe that is a little bit much I think I'm more on the side of like I would rather play him at corner and it feels like a little bit much to have him more than like a gadget player but I think I am becoming more open to the idea that like he's just a special mover and like if he can actually like hold up at his weight and he can handle it mentally like maybe he just is that guy yeah it's certainly possible and again I'm

1:08:57Dan Pizzuta: I'm open to this, like, not being a thing. And the other thing is, like, I want to frame this in a way where it's crazy that, like, we're, there's been a lot of, like, a negative view of what he is already. But, like, you drafted this guy second overall. Obviously, you gave him a lot. There was a lot to give up for him. But the fact that you can just take this guy, have him play more receiver in his first year, and then realize, oh, we kind of need corner. And then we can just, like, throw him there. Like, that's awesome. I think it's still a very cool thing that he's just able to, even if he plays much more corner this year, the fact that you can just move him in that way is really cool.

1:09:39Dan Pizzuta: And I still think he was a really good corner already in his limited snaps. I think he has a lot of, there's a lot, there's a very high upside for him as a cornerback. But I also think that the receiver can still be there.

1:09:56Dave Helman: and that's a good point too that it gives them flexibility to kind of build the roster and do whatever they want where like they might have saw the opportunity to well we can acquire jacoby myers you know obviously last year and it it's we can still play travis hunter a little bit wide receiver but then that allows us going into this offseason like we don't have to keep greg newsome on the roster we can actually just like let him walk and travis hunter is going to go play corner for us and that's going to solve that problem and so it does open them them up there and then like Like it even gives them flexibility with like the Brian Thomas Jr.

1:10:27Dave Helman: thing. Like if they traded him, I would totally get it. Obviously, last year was super frustrating if they don't want to because they're like, actually, we want four good wide receivers. And we're going to do that and we're going to be able to rotate them and use them for all these specific roles. Totally get that, too. And I think even just having Hunter gives you that flexibility to do either. So I think that's a good one to end on where I am also having to check how I feel about a thing. because I'm again, I'm probably on the opposite side, but I could totally see him just just being a really special player.

1:10:56Yeah.

1:10:57Dan Pizzuta: And that's again, like a very cool player, no matter how it turns out. And hopefully health is that's a good thing to point out, too.

1:11:06Dave Helman: If he is only good at one side of the ball, we can say that it's not worth the trade, whatever. That doesn't make him a failure. Like he is still a good player, even if it's just that corner or just at wide receiver. So, So, all right, we'll end there. That was a good parting shot. Dan, thank you so much for coming on. I thought this was a really fun show. Again, this is the perfect time where you're doing almanac work, which, again, as someone who has done it, you know, you think one thing about a team and then you look at the projections and you're like, maybe I'm wrong. Or you know what I mean?

1:11:35Dave Helman: It's a really good time to actually have to really sit with a lot of these thoughts. So thank you. Thank you so much for joining us today. Absolutely. Always a pleasure to be on. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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