Our final questions before the 2026 NFL Draft

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1:13Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Our last show before the 2026 draft kicks off. It's a four-person podcast, which I don't know if we've ever done on this feed before, but that's what we're doing today. Me, Dane Brugler, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen, going through their biggest questions that they have on the eve of the draft. We recorded this on Wednesday night. It's running Thursday morning. If we've gotten answers to any of these questions in the 12 hours between then, I'm very sorry. But that's what we're doing today. The biggest questions we have as we move toward the start of the 2026 draft.

1:48Robert Mays: Quick reminder, 7.30 p.m. Eastern on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel is when our night one draft stream will begin. Us four plus Bruce Feldman breaking down every single pick from the first round of the 2026 NFL draft. On the podcast side of it, we will be doing a separate show that will be available to you in your podcast feeds the morning after round one. We'll be doing the exact same thing after rounds two and three. So if you're a podcast listener, those separate shows are coming your way in the same way they have over the last couple of years. Night two, Friday, 630 p.m. Eastern.

2:25Robert Mays: We will be doing the same thing we did on night one, breaking down every single pick of rounds two and three. It'll be the four of us. Very much looking forward to the next couple of days. One of my favorite stretches of the entire year. Great to spend time with all these guys. Great to spend time with you. So very much looking forward to it. For now, it is me, Dane, Dave, and Derek running through our biggest questions before the 2026 draft kicks off. Let's get to it right now.

3:00Robert Mays: Well, gentlemen, we made it. It is the day of the 2026 NFL draft. While you guys are listening to this, we're recording this on the eve of the 2026 NFL draft. Dane, I believe we started doing this for the 2022 draft. It's the first time I can remember doing this exact show where right before the draft was happening, the day before it happened, me and you and Nate sat down and we were like, okay, what are the biggest questions you still have as the draft is about to kick off? And I've really enjoyed doing it this way. I think it's a fun kind of last note in our pre-draft coverage. And so that's exactly what we're doing today.

3:37Robert Mays: We're going to run through the biggest questions the three of you guys still have as the draft is about to get going. And there's very little prep for this because this is what's going on in our minds right now. It's the thing that's sticking in our craw about, okay, as we do our final mocks, as we kind of try to get a better fix on how this is going to play out, what are the things that we're struggling with? What are the things we still don't know or we're kind of guessing and doing guesswork? And so we've got quite a list that we can go over for before this thing kicks off. I typically have a rule with no four people on podcasts.

4:09Robert Mays: three is often my limit and it's mostly because of my hosting skills but this is going to be a good bit of prep day for tomorrow when we have five people on the actual draft stream well it just

4:19Derrik Klassen: reflects the nature of the nfl draft itself like more more more bigger bigger than last year more content more prospects more people on the show that i mean i was joking about it with somebody in the week like in this build-up to the draft like dane and i have been talking about this draft class since August. And I think the interest for the draft has been there for a long time, but it's a relatively novel concept to be charting this stuff from before the previous college football season kicks off. But the appetite's there. I love it. And so, yeah, I don't think you can get enough.

4:54Robert Mays: Derek, do you have any other questions other than who is going to be my favorite team based on where Sonny Stiles goes? No, that's really the only thing I've got left thinking about thinking about this draft class. And I'm it's more a matter of, yeah, is it going to be a four? Is it going to be at eight. I don't know, but I'm kind of thinking it's going to be high. So we're just going to run through, I don't know, 10, 12 questions that you guys still have before this draft kicks off. And I think this year, this is a particularly good exercise to go through just because there are still so many questions.

5:23Robert Mays: The Jets essentially have the de facto number one pick in the draft when it comes to the intrigue, right? Like we know what's happening at number one and we still don't really know as of this recording, it's 545 central time on Wednesday, the night before the draft, what the Jets are going to do at two. We don't know where Jeremiah Love is going to go. We don't know what's going to happen at three with the Cardinals. And so this top 10 has been a weird top 10 since we started this. And I think the fact that we have so few answers on the eve of the draft only speaks to how strange the run-up to this draft has been compared to a lot of others.

5:54And that's what happens when you run with quarterbacks, right? Where it's a lot more wide open. We've talked about it all process, about the quote-unquote non-premium positions and how that clouds things. Jordan Tyson, we thought that, you know, at combine time, we were talking about how that the injury questions were going to knock him out of the top half of round one. When going back to August, from August until February, any rankings I did, Jordan Tyson was a top 12 player. And then, okay, combine happens, can't work out, not gonna be able to work out at the pro day. All right, well, he's gonna fall.

6:26Well, no, teams still really like him. So that all those things go into this top 10. And I think you're right. For me, that's where it starts is number two. That's really the first question I have on my list is what do the Jets do at number two? And which direction do they want to go? We assume it's going to be a pass rusher, but you have two different ones at the top with Arvel Reese and David Bailey.

6:48Robert Mays: You've been pretty steadfast in your belief that you think it's going to be Reese. You've had Reese in all of your mocks. You have consistently done that. Why have you been so ardent in believing that Arvel Reese is the number two pick to the Jets? And it's not I don't have any inside information here. I think, and I think that's important for everybody to, you know, or to point out. Yeah, it's good transparency. It's useful. The Jets aren't telling me what they're going to do. Jets aren't telling anybody what they're going to do. All of the information, the intel from this week, is really coming from what other teams think the Jets are going to do.

7:20And there's a pretty mixed feedback from teams about will it be Bailey, will it be Reese? And you can make a case for both. With Reese, I think just with the way that Aaron Glenn wants to be more multiple with the hybrid ways that they are going to attack you, looking at the division, to me, Reese is just a better player in my opinion. Yes, some of it you're banking on upside. You're banking on a 20-year-old who is a one-year starter who played a joker role in that Ohio State defense. And so there's projection involved with what that's going to look like in the NFL, where with Bailey is more pretty laid out.

7:59Like he's an edge rusher, go get the football. And that's pretty much it. So I think that if you're looking for the easiest transition, okay, Bailey. If you're looking for what could be a home run, I think it's Reese, and that's the one I'm sticking with. What would you do it to between Bailey and Reese?

8:16Robert Mays: I would draft Arvell Reese. All three of you guys. He's the best player in the draft.

8:22Derrik Klassen: I've been doing a show with Dane for nine months, And I have to admit, I think that colors my perception. I think it's worth admitting. But like we've been on this process together this entire time and just watching, watching the guy, watching his games, seeing him week after week, the variety of different stuff that he did for Ohio State. And I laid it all out on the show that we did with Bruce. He's 20 years old. I mean, if that's what he looks like one year into this vision for him as a player, I'm just sky high on what that could be down the line. He's the only player in this draft who moves in a special way.

8:58And the film is really good. There are a handful of other like really special athletes in this class. Like Monroe Freeling is a ridiculous athlete for tackle. But there are a couple of questions about his film. Whereas you watch Alvaro Reese and it's like, sure, it's annoying that he's splitting like 50-50 between edge and linebacker. But like the tape at both is very good. It's just a matter of like, where do you want to put him?

9:17Robert Mays: I really like that a lot because I do think that speaks to this draft class overall. where you have a couple different buckets, where you have some guys where the traits, they are there, right? Like you can see the upside potential, like a Monroe Freeling, a Keldrick Falk, guys like that were like, if this works out, you could see this guy developing into a very good player. Or you have these guys like the Makai Lemons of the world or Spencer Fano or whatever. It's like, that guy's just a good player. Like when you watch him play, that's a really good football player. But we have questions about, is he a special mover?

9:47Robert Mays: Does he have a special physical profile? And so there aren't that many guys that fall into both of those buckets. But in your mind, Arvel Reese is one of those guys. Totally. And again, like, I feel like the is he an edge? Is he a linebacker thing? Keeps getting thrown against him. But like Dave has made this point a bunch of times. This was the first time we'd ever seen him play edge and he kicked ass doing it. And he's 20 years old and he's a special athlete.

10:09Derrik Klassen: Like 327 per PFF snaps at edge ever. I mean, he didn't. That's not what he did in high school. that's like this that matt patricia showed up and was like uh i want you doing this and he was like okay people undersized like there's totally a world that because he's 20 because he's never played edge before he could add 10 pounds and be like normal weak side and size and just be a completely dominant for like he just it to me would be it has to be all rowers i just i don't

10:40Robert Mays: want to be colored too much by the latest thing like the most recent example of this but just like Mike Parsons. I get scared throwing that name around.

10:48Derrik Klassen: You don't want to make the comparison,

10:50Robert Mays: but just the idea of like, we just did this. And if the whole goal in the top 10 is to find special players, that's the type of swing you can take to potentially find a special player. And there aren't that many of them available in this draft. But I do feel good about the floor too, right? It's not like it's just you're shooting for the fences and whatever. But like, I don't know. People throw around the word tweener with Reese, and I just don't think that's appropriate. I think whatever you want him to be, he can be. It's not like he's stuck between these two positions. I mean, people confuse that with, oh, he was half this, half that.

11:27He can't do one thing. He has to be moved around. No, to me, that's just not what Reese is. He has the physical ability, the mental ability to really be whatever you want him to be on a snap-to-snap basis. And to me, that's something you can really weaponize. some guys get moved around because they need that to be maximized some guys get moved around because it makes the other 10 players but like kyle hamilton gets moved around because the other 10 players are better about yep that's kind of how i feel about how arville reese was used at what do we make of the anything to the 30 visit i was about to bring that up yeah with bailey it's just it's a weird thing so bailey david bailey uh had his 30 visit with the new york jets canceled which is a strange thing because if you are really considering him at with the second pick which just don't need to be coy about what they're doing we know Mendoza is going to be the first pick so there's no intrigue here you don't have to hide your intentions about how you feel about him

12:26Derrik Klassen: um I just why would you do that I've heard and I've heard evaluators and NFL teams say before like we need we learned everything we need to know about this guy we don't need a 30 visit and Dane, we talked about it on Building the Beast. Teams will leave rock-solid guys that they love off the list because there's nothing else to learn. If you're going to make him number two overall, even if you feel rock-solid about it, why not take the day to have him in the building and meet the GM, meet the ownership, just get familiar with the layout. Like, hey, you're going to be a New York Jet in three weeks.

12:59Derrik Klassen: Like, this is work. Yeah. Welcome. Like, I just, it doesn't make sense to me to cancel that, even if you do feel rock-solid about the guy. So I could be wrong on Thursday night, but I definitely I made a mental note where I was like, I don't think you're canceling that if you think that's who you're taking. It's it's weird. I don't know. It's I try not to read too much into it. It's just I don't know. It's a strange move. And look, teams use 30 visits for different reasons, you know, and I think when you go back and look, not every player that's drafted on Thursday night will be will be someone that they brought into the building.

13:35and that's just not how it works. But sometimes it's for subterfuge though, right?

13:39Robert Mays: The idea of like, you don't want to bring a guy in for a 30 visit if you actually have your eye on him. If you have the number two overall, you don't have to hide anything. So I do think that's absolutely something we're paying attention to. Dave, what is your biggest question on your mind as we sit here less than 24 hours from the draft kicking off?

13:56Derrik Klassen: Let's stick with the big time pass rushers. And I think we've kind of let go of the idea that Ruben Bain is going to be the first pass rusher off the board. but I am really intrigued by like you go you go through this draft cycle and again like Dane and I I think he wrecked shop against Notre Dame and it was barely September and it was Bane Bane Bane amazing he's he could be the first pick in this draft if no quarterback materializes and we've been on this ride with Ruben Bane we all know exactly who he is he's a phenomenal player still historical outlier and like after enough time talking about it you just sort of you're like yeah yeah the arms the arms we know but that's still true and you factor in late arriving news about the the car accident that he was in a couple years ago it seems like we've heard across the board that NFL teams have their hands around that but I still wonder what is Reuben Bain's actual floor because we're just sort of saying sometime after two but definitely before 10 reuben bain's gonna be gone or like at the very least like 12 at the latest i thought you meant floor as a player and i know which is yeah so that's yeah what's his like where where's the last place he could be drafted like if if he falls a little bit where does it stop and i'm just i'm really intrigued by that because i i like the player a lot we talked about it a million times go watch the texas a &m game go watch the ohio state game yeah he's he's he's a good player but he is a historical outlier and i do think it's worth repeating that word because again guys like this just don't get drafted anywhere near the top of the draft and because his tape is so good we're all just like yeah yeah yeah short arms but like number nine right like number nine what if that's not true like what if the league's a lot more worried about that than we are that is interesting i mean yeah He needs to bring a friend to the grocery store to help get him stuff off the top shelf.

15:55I can't talk shit about that.

15:56Derrik Klassen: I mean, I can't reach the top shelf, so I'm not going to talk shit to Ruben about that. But, yeah, he's not here, right? Look, I think it's fair to bring up, if he does get past, say, the Chiefs at 9, then do we think the Cowboys are interested? At 12 or 20? 12. Let's start with 12. Everything I've heard is like at 12, probably not. I think there's, I think the length and size stuff matters. And I think there's just different positions and archetypes of players that they prefer more. So then what happens? That's my point. Right. Well, and I probably shouldn't have skipped Miami at 11, which is, I don't know, do you want to keep them home?

16:36Like, you know, like that's something that.

16:38Derrik Klassen: That's interesting because it's a, I mean, it's a hometown sell too, though. Like, like fan bases love when the local guy winds up on the pro team.

16:45Robert Mays: Miami's such a wild card because in doing an exercise where you're trying to figure out the needs for Miami, you can't do it. Because every single position, other than maybe quarterback in this draft, is probably on the table. If they want to take an offensive lineman, they could easily take an offensive lineman at 11. If they want to take a receiver, they easily could. Edge, they easily could. Corner, safety, off-ball, linebacker, they could do anything at that spot. And so maybe the floor is 11. We just haven't been thinking about Ruben Bain to Miami that often because we've been pairing him with the teams in the top 10.

17:14Robert Mays: But if they took him at 11, would that be surprising to anyone based on the state of their roster? Not really. Yeah, I don't think so. I mean, to me, just thinking through it, I think the floor might be the Lions. What, at 17?

17:27Derrik Klassen: Okay, because that's what I wanted to know. And I know it's a hard thing to know the answer to. But again, like, what if it's lower than 11 or 12? Like, what if it's 17, 20? I don't know. Like, I can't imagine. I'm not trying to say he would fall out of the first round. But if a guy with historically short arms fell further than most of us expected, I think that's something that you should at least be on guard for, or at least I am. I feel like Lions, that pick at, what is it, 17? Like, that to me feels like the range in the sense that that's where you start getting to teams that kind of do have a number one already.

18:01Like, the Lions obviously have Aiden Hutchinson. And there are a couple other teams that if he fell a little bit more there, they already have an ace. So, like, you're not drafting him to be that. whereas if you're the Chiefs I know they have Chris Jones but like on the edge you would ideally hope that Bain could be your number one if they take him at nine like the math becomes a little bit different there Eagles would trade up and get him that's a Howie special there's also yeah that

18:22Robert Mays: thing the Chargers are a team that could use him we talked about Dallas at 20 Carolina I think one of the only reasons we've talked so much about Carolina picking a tackle or a wide receiver is that there's a lot of tackles and wide receivers potentially in that range but Carolina isn't set on the edge by any stretch like there are a bunch of teams even after detroit that i think you could probably have a conversation as to why they might be interested in reuben bain all right derek your number one question on the eve of the draft as we get closer and closer here is what i think the question that like interests me the most in terms of where we're at with the draft is what do the rams think of their tackles really because they have aleric jackson who has had some health issues and also like if you look at his contract they could cut him after this year for five million dollars or his contract only has one more year after that so like he's not necessarily there long term Warren McClendon played pretty well for them at right tackle last year as like a late round fill-in for Havenstein but that to me does not feel like a man this guy is like super super good we have to we have to keep him around and also like you're gonna have to pay him after next year if you know if you want to keep him around and then the third thing to me I know we keep talking about the Rams as like a they have to pick for win now which I think for a lot of people is like a Makai Lemon or maybe it's like another DB or whoever it would be making sure that you have tackle depth around Matthew Stafford in your gotta have it gotta win year that to me does actually speak to like win now and so I'm just curious like if they really think that like tackle is like a huge thing that they need to be looking for because I think it helps them now and three four years in advance how often has you gone through this have you thought about tackle for the Rams or have you just been receiver receiver receivers you've gone through with them pretty much every time well and And this kind of goes along with one of my questions, which is when does that offensive tackle run start?

20:04Now, we might see Fano, Maui Noah go top 10, but then there's that next run, which is with Caden Proctor and Monroe Freeling and Miller, Caleb Lomu, Ihenichur. So when does that start? And I think the Rams, that's definitely a spot where it could start, or if the Rams trade back four or five spots, maybe that's where it starts. but no I think tackle is it's worth bringing up for exactly all the reasons you said you know it's a position that they've been able to wait on you know Larrick Jackson was undrafted when McClendon was a fifth round pick so maybe they feel that way but maybe they feel that way about receiver too because where they got Puka where they got Cooper Cup so but this is a class where where they're picking at at 13 if they really like Monroe Freeling I think it makes sense You sit him and you bring him along at his own pace, and he's at worst a swing tackle as a rookie.

21:02That's not a bad place to be.

21:03Derrik Klassen: The Rams are the anti-Dolphins. Like, they have so few needs that you're like, that could be fun. Sure.

21:09Robert Mays: It's also funny because with other teams, you have a history of what they've done in the first round, and it may give you clues about where they allocate first-round picks and how they think about it positionally. The Rams have made one first-round pick in the last, like, 10 years. so we have no idea like how they want to spend how they want to spend their first round draft picks and they keep you on your toes about oh they value this oh no really they value this and like oh they just traded for trent mcduffie like it just they keep you on your toes with what philosophy is most important to them at that you know at that juncture of where the roster is as long as

21:39Derrik Klassen: we're talking about offensive tackles because i had something similar do you think dane that the tackles if if there is movement if there are trades and in the first round and obviously like if there's a trade at the top we know most of those guys but like if there's movement around the middle and back into the first round does it i feel like the offensive tackles are what's going to spur that and the fact that there's scarcity after the top six or seven guys i won't be surprised if that spurs somebody to want to i mean bringing up detroit again like if detroit It doesn't feel like they can wait until 17 for that guy.

22:17Derrik Klassen: Or if Houston wants to get involved from the back of the first round, I just feel like I wouldn't be surprised if one or two teams want to move because once the tackles are gone, they're kind of gone.

22:28Robert Mays: Or it's like the Bucs at 15, right? Because you want to get ahead of Detroit, right? And you're worried about Carolina at 19. There are all those teams, Pittsburgh at 21, Eagles at 23, Browns at 24, where all of them feel like offensive tackle teams. And if Detroit and Carolina also might be offensive tackle teams, do you want to get up there where the Ravens and the Bucs are potentially picking to make sure that you get in on that run? And not just the tackle run, but these guys, these teams, they want someone specific. I don't think it's as simple as, okay, well, this guy's off the board, so we'll go to the next one.

23:01You like Caden Proctor for a certain reason, as opposed to maybe why you do or don't like Blake Miller and vice versa. So, yeah, absolutely. I could see these teams moving around a little bit to jump ahead of other teams and just make sure they get their guy. And that's kind of, I'll just mention my next question along those lines. Who's going to make the biggest jump? I think we're going to see trades. But I think we're going to see a lot of three-spot trades, four-spot trades. But who's going to make the biggest jump to go up and get somebody? um it could it be the texans from way back you know where they're picking at 28 um the eagles eagles have traded up in the first round for the last five years so obviously this is something that they are accustomed to doing but often those times it's last year it was one spot for um when

23:56Derrik Klassen: they trade with the bear one spot so uh micah parsons trade was too i've like i don't think of them as doing that and it's probably because they're always very minor trades like they're not

24:06Robert Mays: leaping halfway across the round they're absolutely one of those teams that looks at picks outside of the top 100 as ways to move around the draft they 100 see the draft that way and have always operated that way the dane the texans are an interesting one to me because they're a team that has a lot of ammo like more than anyone but the dolphins the texas got ammo they very quietly have like an extra two or an extra three in almost every single draft they've They've been very good about acquiring those. They have picked 38 and 59 in round two. Yeah, they have four top 70 picks. Because they were the team that traded with the Giants for Dart, right?

24:37Robert Mays: And they traded Laramie Tunsil. And so that's how they found those extra picks in this year's draft specifically. But I was looking at it, and it's like they do feel like a team that if they wanted to jump to 12, 11, whatever it's going to be, they've got the ammo for it. And then I'm thinking it's like it probably would be for Ioane if they think that he would be there. So that's obviously not tackles. But he's also kind of the only guard that teams are going to take that high, who is a true guard. You think Texas would do that? I don't. I don't think they would, but it's like... They're just not that sort of team.

25:04Robert Mays: I don't think they view the draft that way. In which way? I think they are about spreading out their bets. This is the same team who traded up for Will Anderson to get to NCJ Stroud. The Will Anderson thing to me is... He's a different caliber of prospect. It is a different sort of conversation. If you look at how they've done things recently, I would be surprised that they were the team that ultimately did that, especially in this sort of draft. Especially for a guard. How high do you think they would be willing to trade up? Is there a 28 right now? Yeah. I just don't know what sort of player it would be for.

25:34That's kind of what I'm getting. Like, they have the ammo to do it, but I'm like, I just, in this draft, I don't know who you would do it for.

25:40Robert Mays: They, for the most part, operated in a pretty measured way. Like, most of the time. And I think the one time they didn't do that was the offseason where they traded for Stephon Diggs, and then they immediately started walking that back because I think they knew they got a little bit over their skis.

25:55Derrik Klassen: if the last tackle that you loved or or maybe if you want i was there like if he was there in the mid-20s like if cleveland already had their offensive linemen you could get up there using like one of those picks maybe but i mean if if they'd rather hold on to all that capital i

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29:56What's your next one, Derek? So to go back to the top of the draft a little bit, what is the deal with all the late injury news guys, which is namely like Jermon McCoy and Francis Mavinoa. Like how serious is that going to be for a lot of these guys? Let's ask this man right here.

30:10Robert Mays: How serious are you feeling about that? With McCoy, it seems like he might fall out of the first round. Now, Maui Noah seems a little bit more murky. Like, ah, teams probably, it seems like he's still in, like, the top 16, top 20 talk. Whereas McCoy, there were reports that, like, he might fall out of the first round, which is crazy for a guy who, tape-wise, is, like, the seventh, eighth best player in the draft, probably. So, the day that I had a turn in the beast, texting around about some late information, and got from a team that, hey, he's off our board. there's a good chance he might not go in the first and at that point it was like yeah shoot like how do I reflect this into the beast and we decided not to because it's just too late at that point but this was like two weeks ago over two weeks ago um and so yeah that's been out there for a little while um I did not include Jermon McCoy in my final mock draft uh the first round um now maybe he gets in there because some for some teams it's more about um you know at this point shoot okay let's just take them you know if you're um i don't know kansas city or seattle you're playing with house money yeah he fits their style like what's changed so it's it's something it's it's with the knee but it's not related to the acl um it's something that will some teams think will require another procedure and um miss time and so it just it feels like there is just more uncertainty than anything about the knee and that's just not ideal like obviously he's healthy enough to go out and run a 4-3 um at his workout at the pro day um it's more about just the longevity of the knee and what is there another procedure coming and i don't have i will be the first to say i don't have enough information to accurately say this will drop him or won't drop him i just know that there's legit worry from teams about where he's ultimately gonna be drafted because of that.

31:59This reminds me of the Miles Jack thing a little bit, where it was like... Bringing up old memories. Right. Where it was like a supremely talented player who on film was like one of the top players in that class. Obviously really young too, which helped him out. But there was the degenerative knee thing where it was like, how long can he stay healthy and how long can he do this? Even if he looks fine now as a rookie in year two, whatever it is, like how long can he hold up as an NFL player? And that's a little bit what it sounds like in terms of the McCoy thing. Kind of just last year with the Will Johnson.

32:28Yeah, that's another great one. Like that obviously was a complicated situation because the main question with him was speed, but he couldn't run a 40 during the process because of it. So how much of the 40 played a part of him falling to 48 when the Cardinals took him at that point? And he missed some time during his rookie year. I think it was unrelated to some of those issues. But yeah, corner is a position where if you have questions, I mean, any position, obviously, but especially at corner, just maybe a little bit more concern there.

33:01Derrik Klassen: McCoy is obviously incredibly high profile because he missed the season. And we've been talking about how healthy he was for this entire process. But if there's one thing I could hammer home about the draft process to anybody that's listening, it's, I mean, Dane does a better job than anybody. And even he is only scratching the surface of the amount of medical information that only teams have access to. because like they get the scans and the word back from the doctors on all of these guys and we're going to be here maybe it won't be thursday maybe it'll be friday but we're going to be here this weekend and be like he's still falling it must be medical and we just didn't know about it because teams have just a wealth of information that we'll never see and and we'll have to wait and see how guys you know go in the draft order to learn well and and we won't even learn about all of it because some of these guys will get drafted anyway and it's like well yeah but his collarbones messed up from something that happened to him years ago and like we felt comfortable with it enough to draft him but we did think about it and just so much of that stuff never sees the light of day and i it's

34:04Robert Mays: it's wild to think about really so it feels like you believe that mccoy is going to fall because of this you he will fall it's just a matter of how far yeah with maui noah where do we think this ultimately shakes out just based on the feedback i've gotten it doesn't sound like it's something that's going to sink him. Maybe if you're a team in the top 10 where the tags are touching and you're debating between him or somebody else, maybe that's a differentiating factor where you go the other way. But I don't think it's something that's going to drop him out of the top 11, I would say. I think he's still going to go that high.

34:38I think the Giants are going to be in. I think the Dolphins will be in. Maybe he could fall a little bit further than that, but not much. I don't think it's something that... There weren't alarm bells going off when I talk to teams about it, put it that way.

34:52Robert Mays: I'll say this. I have a herniated disc in my spine right now. It would prevent me from playing an NFL game tomorrow. Yeah. So just something to keep in mind. That's the only reason I wouldn't be able to, but I think I'd have a hard time doing it tomorrow. It's not nothing. No, it's something you do have to deal with. Well, and I will say the Maui Noah one is confusing because I think some of the reporting that came out, and I forget who this was from, pardon me for that, but the reporting was like, well, Maui Noah, it might pop up that he might need surgery and he might miss his rookie season, but also teams aren't worried about it.

35:19And it's like, well, that seems... Someone reported that? I believe so. I think it was like Schefter had put that in his story, that it was like, I think it was Adam Schefter. And I was like, that just doesn't really seem congruent with each other.

35:31Robert Mays: All right, what's your next one, Dave? I mean, we got to mention Ty Simpson. Does Ty Simpson come off the board on Thursday night, tonight? I, if I had to put odds on it, I would say better than 50-50. He does not, but all it takes is one team. And could that, I mean, I think the most logical fit that we hear the most is a Cardinals trade-up from 34 to the back, you know, the Jackson Dart trade, basically. If it's not the Cardinals, like, could we see, like with the Rams, if they traded back from 13, is that an option? I don't know. Is there a... They're not doing that. I would be shocked. I just, they're not doing that.

36:18They're not doing that. I'm reaching here. I'm trying to come up with scenarios where, besides a Cardinals trade up, what other landing spots do we have here?

36:25Robert Mays: So we had a long conversation, all of us just sitting around bullshit and talking about the Cardinals earlier today and just the strange spot the Cardinals are in. And I think that too often I'm in a place where I look at this completely divorced from the circumstances, where if you're the Cardinals, you are a team that is tearing it down might be strong, but you are on a pretty methodical timeline when it comes to when you're going to be competitive. You look at the current state of the roster. They have so many different needs. It is in their best interest to play this with patience. But you look at a general manager who survived the purge but is still there, and I think that there probably should be an increased level of urgency in terms of how we talk and think about that team.

37:08Robert Mays: The Giants were in a spot last year where they almost had to do this with Jackson Dart because of the urgency that I think a lot of people in that building were feeling. And the Cardinals, maybe just because we don't think about the Cardinals that much and it's easy just to kind of leave them off in the corner, they should maybe be in the same spot where they're sitting there. If you're Monte Austin for it, like, I need to do something to accelerate this thing a little bit because if we're sitting there with Jacoby Percet and Gardner Minshew through this entire year and we go 4-13, even if that probably is okay in the overall scope of things, am I going to have a job a year from now if that's actually how this plays out?

37:46Derrik Klassen: I also think, assuming Ty Simpson doesn't go 13th overall to the Rams, which would shock me, like let's just say the Cardinals, I mean John Schneider does not want the 32nd pick. Like he said that on record. So let's just say they do a minor trade up. You get in front of the Jets and make sure you get him. Who gives a shit if he's not the guy? like if he's there and uh like if he's there and you go through this whole thing and in a year or two you decide it's not ty simpson we got to draft somebody else like i i think that's fine they already did this with josh rosen not that long ago like it's not preventing me i do from doing something else and i was telling this to dane earlier if you take him in the first round you are kind of committing for two years and i know that literally this team did not do that but like in almost every other circumstance you are, if you take him like 50-something and he just sucks and plays like four games and we don't think about it, you can just kind of like, we don't think about it and he's gone.

38:41Robert Mays: So here, I did this the other day. I can't remember what show we did it on. It might've been a mailbag that we were discussing this on, but we were talking about what happens when you draft a running back in the first round and the timeline that it puts your franchise on. And it's easy to say that where like in two years, we can just do this all over again. But let's just say Ty Simpson starts in the back half of the season for the Cardinals this year, it's not an epic disaster. Then you're going into next offseason with a quarterback on a rookie quarterback contract, and you're saying, look at all this money we have to spend.

39:10Robert Mays: You can spend a decent chunk of it. Let's say you get one small bump in year two where now you're like a 7-10 team, and you're picking 11th overall, and you're still talking yourself into Ty Simpson. You're probably going to go through like a three-year period with Ty Simpson. At the end of that three-year period, the worst-case scenario is you are too good to put yourself back into a spot to draft another quarterback. And now you're walking through no man's land where, well, we've built up the rest of the roster around the quarterback, but he's not good enough for us to win. Now we need that mid-tier veteran guy to kind of come in and thread the needle.

39:43Robert Mays: And you put yourself in a seven-year timeline that you're f***ed. And that happens all the time. The Jets just did with Aaron Rodgers. And I'm sorry to throw this straight now. You become what the Carolina Panthers are currently doing. Like, that's where you land. Like the rest of if you if we are removing quarterback and just like ranking rosters, the Panthers roster is like pretty good right now. The Panthers are the exact example of this. Where now at the end of the season, if the Panthers fall short, they're going to be sitting there being like, OK, Bryce isn't good enough. Who can we get?

40:12Robert Mays: That's like a veteran quarterback that we can somehow thread the needle.

40:16Derrik Klassen: Do you really feel like that's analogous, though, considering what the Panthers sunk into obtaining Bryce? Of course not. No, no, no, no.

40:23Robert Mays: It's different. but I still feel like that's the timeline that you're on where the team is getting incrementally better. You can talk yourself into the progress that you're seeing. All right. If we go out and get a Jalen Phillips and free agency, maybe this will be what finally takes us over the top. And then you fall just short enough. And now you're in the spot where you were at nine and eight team. You have the 19th pick in the draft in 2027. It's like the quarterback's not good enough. What are we going to do? And I think like Rosen was historically stink. That's the best way for it to happen where you're so bad that you have the first pick in the next draft.

40:53What if Ty Simpson plays like rookie Kenny Pickett, where it's not good, but you're like, maybe. That's where it becomes a problem. It becomes a dicey thing.

41:04Derrik Klassen: Would you feel differently if they just picked him at 34? Like, let's say the Jets just really don't like him and they were able to pick him at 34. For a couple of reasons. Two picks makes that big of a difference? It does in everybody's mind. It does inside the building. The number next to the player's name. It shouldn't, but it does. It shouldn't, but it does. In the building, and I think fans, Like there's something about saying first round pick versus second round pick that I do think tweaks things in people's minds. And I actually will say, I think part of the tragedy of no longer having the second round quarterback is I think that there is a little bit of a value of being a second round quarterback where it's like, I do not have to walk in and everybody's looking at me.

41:39And there's all this pressure.

41:40Robert Mays: Oh, shuck last year. It works. It works. Derek Carr was this like Jimmy Garopp, obviously behind Tom Brady, but like he ended up being okay. Andy Dalton was a second round pick. Like, sometimes there's a little bit of, like, yeah, Colin Kaepernick. There's a little bit of, like, not having to immediately be the, like, you better figure it out guy. I think it's kind of nice for both team and player. But it's interesting, just bringing it back to this draft specifically, if, okay, Ty Simpson makes it through the first round, not picked. The Jets don't take him at 33. If you're the Cardinals, do you have to take him at 34?

42:13I was about to ask you, probably not.

42:16Robert Mays: It's what we said originally about Ty Simpson, where it's like if you're sitting there in the second round and he falls to you, that's a fine place to be. I wouldn't be leveraging myself in any way to guarantee that I come away from this draft with Ty Simpson. It's exactly how I feel about him. And I think if you're the Steelers sitting there in the second round, it's a similar thought process where like if he falls to us in the second round, fine. This is a worthwhile ramp to take based on our current quarterback situation. but we don't have to step outside of ourselves to make sure that we come away from this weekend with Ty Simpson.

42:49Derrik Klassen: Yes. A spot I really like for him, I've said it on some show at some point over the last two months, is 44 to the Jets, where it's like right in the sweet spot of like, there's a good shot he'll be there, and you're not, like that should not stop you from doing anything in the future.

43:06Robert Mays: Right or wrong, I look at the war chest that the Jets have next year, and I just think mentally be like, no.

43:12Derrik Klassen: Yeah, that's kind of, yeah.

43:13Robert Mays: No, we're putting this off.

43:15Derrik Klassen: I'm not, we're not even thinking about this. You don't even want to give yourself an excuse to buy into Ty Simpson? Like, you don't even want to have to wonder if he's good?

43:22Robert Mays: I only think that, I think they're in a unique circumstance. I think they're in a unique situation. I think because of what they have going into next year, I would rather just say, we're punting our quarterback this year, we're going to do it in 2020. I'd be worried about what you were talking about earlier, about the mediocrity. Yes. If you draft a Ty Simpson and he shows just enough where you can't really move on, but then, okay, it's another year you're punting on. We'll see what next year's quarterback class ends up being, but it's all leading up to 2027 for the Jets, and so I kind of agree with you.

43:53Even though I think it makes more sense logically to throw more resources at the position. But that's not what this is. Exactly.

44:02Robert Mays: There's an emotionality to the position, and there are human elements, and when you draft the guy, you feel committed to him. This stuff does not happen in a vacuum, and I would just not like kick the hornet's nest or whatever metaphor we want to use here. It's a thorny situation. Even if you draft the quarterback in the second round, that is still high enough where you have attached yourself to the idea of that quarterback in a way that could become problematic. And I would not do that if I were the Jets.

44:26Derrik Klassen: I think I agree with your overall point, but 44 is like far enough down the draft board where I'm just like divorcing myself from the emotionality. But let's play this out though.

44:37Robert Mays: Let's just say you're bad for the first six weeks. He was drafted 44th overall. He's sitting there on the bench. They're clamoring for him to play. He does eventually play, and then he's just good enough for you to say, let's roll with this.

44:50Derrik Klassen: You lived this situation not very long ago, albeit there was a larger sample size. But what did the Bears do? When given a chance to, like, surround Justin Fields with more talent or draft the stud coming out of the upcoming draft, what do you do? You take the better quarterback. That was by, like, year four. Or what would have been.

45:08Robert Mays: Yeah, that was deeper into it.

45:09Derrik Klassen: It was deeper into it, but, like, there's nothing Ty Simpson could do to stop me from taking a quarterback number one overall if I drafted him 44th.

45:18Robert Mays: But what if you're not picking number one overall? What if you're picking sixth overall?

45:22Derrik Klassen: Still, I feel the same way. Like, especially with what the Jets are going to have. Then why take him at all?

45:30Derrik Klassen: To have somebody to evaluate, and because it's a lottery ticket, I guess? I'd rather have, like, Jeremy Bernard feels like he could be there at 44th. I'd rather just take Jeremy Bernard.

45:41Robert Mays: the idea of a potential lottery ticket a quarterback in Jeremy Bernard I guess I guess

45:48Derrik Klassen: I I think I guess I have to concede like if you're hell-bent that you're gonna do it in 2027 and you're saying like there's nothing you could do to change my mind about that then why use the pick exactly I think that I mean because you out of the four of us I think you like tie the most and so I think there's something to be said. If you think there's a realistic path for him to become your long-term starter, you have to follow that. But if you like him and don't love him, then that's where I think it gets dicey. But if you love him, if you think that, okay, there's a... If somebody loves him, he wouldn't last that long anyway.

46:26Derrik Klassen: Then that's the other thing about quarterbacks, too.

46:28Robert Mays: We also just did this with the Saints last year. I think it is a materially different situation because of the draft capital. the Jets are walking into next year's draft with. With the Saints, there's always a chance that this exact scenario plays out where you have the eighth overall pick in a shitty quarterback draft and you don't have a pathway to that guy. And in that situation, it's worth taking Tyler Shuck 40th overall. The Jets are in a different situation than the Saints around a year ago.

46:49Derrik Klassen: Even if I'm, I'll concede the overall point. As we have learned this year, there's no sure thing. We might, I mean, I'm willing to say like, I think, I think 2027 Arch Manning is going to open some eyes I'm willing to say that ahead of time but like doesn't mean I'll be right and that doesn't mean we'll feel any better about this quarterback class it doesn't it does not mean that there will be four guys to choose from in 2027.

47:17Robert Mays: It's fair to bring up so it's totally fair I'm also in a spot and it's dangerous to think this way because we never know whether teams are going to be a little bit better than we expected a little bit worse than we expected with the Saints last year we all expected them to be bad because the roster was bad on paper but there was still the unknown we had never seen kellen moore do this there were so many like brandon staley that defense played so much better than we expected them to it's year one of a regime i think it's easier to be surprised than year one of a regime i feel pretty good about saying the new york jets are going to be bad in 2026 i feel pretty good about that in a way that i probably couldn't even feel good about last year with the saints or even if they're not like outright disaster at least like with the Saints or if it would be the Steelers this year drafting Ty Simpson it's like I'm pretty sure their coaches will be there next year like when the Saints hired Kellen Moore last year it's like he'll probably get a year two yes Mike McCarthy probably will get a year two with Aaron Glenn now already being in year two and year one was as bad as it was it's like I don't know if there's a year three there are a lot of reasons why I think it's just worth bypassing quarterback in this year's draft if you're the Saints I just

48:22Derrik Klassen: don't, I just can't believe that our show of all shows is writing off the Geno Smith team ahead of time, but it's fine.

48:28Robert Mays: I'm writing off the team. I saw Aaron Glenn coach last year. All right, before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break.

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49:59Robert Mays: Dave, what's your next one here? Next big question here as we move toward the draft.

50:04Derrik Klassen: We don't have to spend a lot of time on this one because we touched on it. I am fascinated by what the league is going to tell us they think about a pure guard prospect in this draft. And I just want to see where Vanga Uone goes in this draft. I mean, it's been there this whole time. Plenty of people have said it, but one of my favorite possible pairings is him landing in Baltimore. Like, why wouldn't you be excited about that? I don't have to sell that to anybody. But to NFL teams, like, do you want to draft just a pure guard with little position flex that high? Could he go higher than that? Yeah.

50:41Derrik Klassen: I know plenty of people have mentioned him as a Chargers target as well. Like, will he still be there for the LA Chargers? I don't, the range there is interesting to me. And I'm of a mind, and especially guard salaries are so big these days. Like, I am of a mind that if you really love the guy, you should be willing to draft somebody like you want a 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th. Like, I think that's totally fine, but I don't know if the league agrees with me. And so the range there is very interesting. I think 10 is where it starts with the Giants. I think that's where we're kind of on watch about where he could come off the board.

51:16Some teams believe he's the best offensive lineman in the draft. And so I understand why they might prefer a tackle there over the guard. But, yeah, I don't think, I mean, we've been talking about positional value all draft season, right, with a safety in the top 10, running back in the top three, potentially. So with the guard, if we're talking about him in the top 15, yeah, it's not a stretch. And this is also a team that doesn't mind that. They're trading a bunch of assets for Roquan Smith. They took Kyle Hamilton at 14. They took Tyler Linderbaum higher than most centers go. This is just not a team that seems very bothered by that.

51:51Derrik Klassen: But see, the funny thing is, and the Ravens did wind up drafting him, and they get credit for that, but Linderbaum, Dane, we did that draft together. Linderbaum was like the cannot miss, this is a freaky center, and we sat there and waited for him to go all the way at 25 before the Ravens were like, yes, we will do this. And so it's different positions. Obviously, I get that. But, like, teams don't always feel the same way about this stuff.

52:15Robert Mays: I think talking about our barbell yesterday on the running back value show that we did, we had this conversation about guards and kind of how they fit into, like, premium positions and why they don't really fall into line with things like tackle and everything else. And I think there are two, in my opinion, driving forces behind this. You can get guards in free agency. And that is that to me, this to me becomes, it's not even about salaries to me anymore. It is about scarcity when it comes to like premium positions. You can get guards in free agency consistently. It's one of those positions. Centers is the same thing.

52:45Robert Mays: And I think part of that is driven by the fact that offensive line franchise tag numbers are inflated because of tackles. And so if you don't have that to wield in order to keep a guard or center on your team, there's inherently going to be more movement in free agency with those positions. And it makes them less valuable in the first round compared to something like a tackle. which seems wild by the way it's crazy that that like very esoteric rule affects the way that the nfl is structured and how we draft players yes stupid i i live actually the same way jack campbell might not get his fifth year option picked up because of how we do this it's insane

53:22Derrik Klassen: it seems like something that is overdue to be fixed honestly like if you can't keep the best center in football because of tackle salaries it's that's pretty wild and it's great for tyler linderbaum though congrats it sure is congrats on that contract i get how for a long time that like defensive end and outside linebacker was funny because like those were more like hybrid roles at a certain point but like a guard is a guard he's not playing any other spot on the line for the like you know what i mean like it's very simple there's a very easy way to do

53:51Robert Mays: this which like they're that position outside linebacker and defensive end oh is his hand in the ground is it not or whatever you can chart how often a guy lines up at guard versus how opting lines up to tackle yes which one did you play more over the course of your rookie contract that is the tag that you get it's really not that complicated it's not complicated at all so it's but i think it's important like all right so why because the inflating salaries and especially as you're trying to like mirror that with defensive tackles on the other side of the ball shouldn't guards be a little bit more valuable shouldn't we be able to draft them a little bit earlier but again the availability of when you can find these players either in other rounds of the draft or in free agency, that should be a driving factor in terms of where we're going to draft these players and why.

54:35We're going to see a lot of offensive line. We've talked about the tackles and I think the guards too. Like we're going to see, I think, multiple guards go in the first round. We're talking about double digit offensive linemen going in the first round this year. And part of that is what we're talking about. Part of it is, I think it was just a big drop off once you get to day two. There's fewer names and fewer guys you believe will be starters in this league.

54:57Robert Mays: I think that's becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think we're going to see even fewer offensive tackles that get picked in the second round become starters because the math and history is telling teams they have to take them in the first round. And so now it becomes this self-perpetuating thing. It's the quarterback thing. That's why Michael Penix goes in the first round. And Bo Nix and guys like that is because it's like, well, you got to take them there. And it becomes a self-perpetuating thing. Look at history. They all get drafted there. Well, they all get drafted there because we decided that they're getting drafted there even if they don't deserve to be.

55:26Robert Mays: And that is what is happening. Derek, do you have any others? Any other questions on your mind here? I did have a couple. We talked about the Lions a little bit, so I don't need to do that one. The other one that is like. I just feel like because we've been so locked in on like Mendoza's going to the Raiders, we have like not talked about what the Raiders might do with any of their other picks. It's just been a lot of like, ah, they'll get Mendoza. And then like the rest of the thing is just kind of like whatever. And so I am curious, like how they want to go about that, because obviously they still need a couple of pieces.

55:54A couple. Like, well, I was going to say on offense. They need a couple of pieces on offense. One or two linemen would be great. A receiver would be great. And then you look at the defense, and it's like, they need just about anything. And so it's like, where do they think the depth is in this class? Like, can they pass on D-line in the second round? Like, I'm not sure, because I feel like corner's a little bit deeper. So maybe you want to take, if Christian Miller's going to be there at 35 or whatever their pick is. If Cade McDonald makes it that far, he has to be the pick. That's got to be their dream.

56:23Yeah. and so I'm just kind of curious like what they actually want to do with some of these other picks and like do they spend a lot of them on defense do they think they need a ball winner for Mendoza because we've talked about that a little bit like what does Mendoza need for this to work and I think obviously improved offensive line for any young player is going to be nice but if you look at Mendoza stylistically there were other better receivers uh or there were other good receivers on Indiana obviously Omar Cooper is going to go really high but like when you watch some of Mendoza's best plays, it's him throwing to Surratt and Becker because they're just ball winners.

56:55And you look at the Raiders roster and it's like, I don't know who is going to be that guy for them. And if you want to take like a Malachi Fields in the third round or a Jacoby Lane, do they think that that's more important than taking more throws at the dart at corner or whatever it's going to be?

57:10Robert Mays: Also, are they a trade-up team for an offensive tackle? If you're going to drop a number one overall pick in there at some point this year, they have an extra fourth from Minnesota, they have an extra fourth round compact. And so they have a little bit of ammo.

57:22Derrik Klassen: Like if we were sitting there right there at 36, it's a great shout.

57:25Robert Mays: I just, are they a team that we could see sneak back into the first round in order to snatch one of those last guys? Because I absolutely think that's a position they should be thinking about at the very least. Cause that range, if some of those tackles are there at the end, like maybe one or two of those guys, it's like, you probably want to get ahead of Kansas city. You probably want to get ahead of like the 49ers are probably looking to right. Miami goes a different way. The bears even like our potential might take a left tackle. Like, you might want to get up to 23, 24. I mean, the Eagles might want to take one, too.

57:54Like, maybe the Chargers is, like, the range if you want to do that. Like, that's a good shout. If they really want to make sure that Mendoza's locked in and solid, you can go up and trade for, like, a Blake Miller. In my seven-round mock, I had him going, Caden McDonald in the second, and then Elijah Surratt in the third. There we go. Get him an IU guy to join in Vegas. Well, the chemistry, you figure they were there just one year together. It's not like they came in together for three years. They had one year together, and the chemistry they had. looked a hell of a lot better than that unbelievable so yeah i i don't maybe there's a little bit of a same thing going on with jack besh who just drafted last year with sarat i don't know it just depends on how you do you think sarat's more of a power slot do you think he can live on the outside whatever but i think the the comfort level with a young quarterback that's that's something that you would absolutely have with sarat didn't do any others um so this is kind of along those lines talking about cate mcdonald but my last two that i wrote down these are maybe just for me more than anybody else, but does a defensive tackle go in the first?

58:53And then does a linebacker two go in the first round? Like, I'm just very interested in the final 12 picks. Do we get that defensive tackle, whether it's Peter Woods, Caden McDonald, and then do we get a CJ Allen or Jacob Rodriguez sneak in there, that second linebacker behind Sonny Stiles?

59:11Robert Mays: I'd like to run something by you because this came up on the last On the Clock show we did. And as I thought more about it, I got more excited about it. Is there a linebacker too in this draft that if you just drop them onto the Houston Texans defense, it's something that you would be excited about? Because I think we've gone offensive line, offensive line, offensive line, defensive tackle, edge depth as we've thought about the Texans. But Henry Teleto is a free agent after this year. And I also don't think he's a player that should prevent you from doing something in the first round if you thought that was the last way to supercharge your defense.

59:42Robert Mays: the idea of like one more like let's take this to 11 off ball linebacker on that team I can get behind it is there anybody that fits that for you for for Houston so what's funny is I think I like CJ Allen more than Jacob Rodriguez but CJ Allen to me is a mic and Aziz Alshair is their mic Jacob Rodriguez to me I think is a guy who because of some of his range because of some of what he can do with like there are some routes in coverage where he'll just like turn up the sideline and run with the wheel and you're like oh that's interesting and so I think he more fits like the Henry Toa role if they drafted jacob rodriguez that he would be the one i probably want that to be the caden mcdonald spot like the idea of just a 330 pound monster in front of the rest of that defensive line is probably my pick but rodriguez in that range is probably it's probably the guy is there a player team fit with any of those linebackers that you have thought about in like the final five or six picks of the first round that's a good question um not i don't think there's a like an obvious like oh like drop them in there like you know because like you don't think that way with Buffalo or um I mean the Chiefs no you don't think that way Miami you don't necessarily think that way but I just talking to teams they think a linebacker is getting in there uh some teams are CJ Allen teams and some are more Jacob Rodriguez teams but I was surprised how often I heard a second linebacker is getting in there um and just that's okay to say but then when you sit down and kind of map it out it's like okay well where is this fitting in and so I'm just interested to see if it actually happens do you think like the bucks would move back in potentially like for cj allen like they're a team that like they've needed linebacker talent for a

1:01:15Derrik Klassen: while obviously to find a linebacker yeah david's out of the building now and i think it would be nice to i think part of the the value that cj allen's gonna bring is like that's the guy you get him on your team and it's like he can have the green dot like he did this at george's defense like kind of immediately which is part of what got me to come around on him like i watched cj allen at first i was like he's he's nice but i don't know how high i want to take him and the more i think about it i'm like oh yeah in 2023 i saw that guy and i was like that guy seems good and he was 18 years old on georgia's defense and so the fact that he could do that for the bucks who have been kind of in the wilderness there for a while they're they're an interesting what about

1:01:48Robert Mays: doing the bucks going back like that or that still feels like whatever they got to do to get the 25 they are the team to me that is one of the strangest teams in the first round it's hard to

1:01:57Derrik Klassen: find an obvious thing that makes sense for where tampa's picking i put mesador in my final mock draft for them, which if they're stuck at 15, I could see it happening.

1:02:07Robert Mays: That is their biggest need still. They need an edge rusher. You look at it right now. Al-Qadim Muhammad is slated to start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah. As it currently stands. But you know they want out of there. Whatever, however they can get out of 15, they will do. It's just who's going to trade up. But yeah, if they can move back five, six, seven spots, more than that, where they're in more of a range where they could get the edge rusher or take a linebacker, that makes a ton of sense for them. The two stretches of the draft that I find most interesting, 7-8-9, and what happens 7-8-9.

1:02:40Robert Mays: Like what Washington ultimately does and how that affects the rest of the top 10. Like is it Carnell Tate? Is it do they go defense? If they go defense, what does that mean for who's on the board for both the Saints and the Chiefs? Now it's a little less interesting because the Bengals are out of there. So the Bengals have kind of removed themselves from that consideration. But that's sort of the draft I find. That's probably why the Bengals are out of there. 100%. Again, we did the second on the clock show we did. We did the picks like six through 12. And we got to the Bengals at 10. And Mansoor Delaney was like the only defensive player still there.

1:03:13Robert Mays: And I'm sitting there looking at it. It was like, holy shit, the Bengals. Like there, you look at all those guys. We talked about this whole process. Like there is a chance that Downs, Styles, all those guys that you'd love to see on the Bengals are just gone. And so when they traded for Dexter Lawrence, I was like, I see it. I completely understand that because I just did this. I just went through all of these different iterations, and there's a chance they're the odd man out. They've just removed any sort of uncertainty from this process.

1:03:39Derrik Klassen: The only winning move is not to play. Just take the proven player, thanks. It's interesting that you say that with 7, 8, 9. To me, the pivot point's five with the Giants. Sure. What about you, Hellman? What do you think the pivot point is if you had to pick one? because I think the first four players I think are going to be Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, and Love in some type of order. Sure. I think it's kind of like who goes up at six. Yeah, I think five. Five. Okay. Five is a good answer because, and also, like, I just, I really, I made this joke to Connor Orr and the guys that he had the call a couple weeks ago where there's like four picks that the Giants could make, and they would all seem like slam dunk Harbaugh picks.

1:04:23Derrik Klassen: Like, we got the running back. We got the linebacker. We got the mauling offensive lineman. Like, there are so many ways they could do that. And then also, it's just a beyond obvious open secret that Cleveland wants the hell out of there. So, like, that stretch right there where the Giants are kind of do their own, they're playing do their own adventure where, like, they could just take four different guys that would send wildly different signals. Then, obviously, the Browns don't seem like they even want to make that pick. So, that's kind of where all hell feels like it's going to break loose.

1:04:53Robert Mays: If that top four plays out the way that you're thinking, where it's in some order Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, Love, and you're the Giants at five, what would you do? I mean, it's probably downs. And that's just trying to get a sense for what teams think will happen in that scenario. Most of the feedback that I get is downs in terms of which direction they think the Giants will go. But that's to your point with Harbaugh. We have 18 years of data where it's not necessarily him making the picks. And they did so many different things in the first round. We're talking about the Ravens over that time that you can't really.

1:05:30And Harbaugh is not an offensive guy. He's not a defensive guy. He's more that CEO. So it's not like you can really point to where you think you might even be leaning at this point. So five really to me is wide open. I think Downs makes a ton of sense. If they want to go offensive line with either Fano or Maui Noah, that makes a ton of sense. Sonny Stiles obviously they could add a big time linebacker like that could they go receiver I don't you can't rule that out so the Giants to me at five are in that 10th pick too makes it really interesting because it just it's more of a math game now like who's going to be there at 10 which should we maybe lean offensive line at five or no because we like all of them so let's get downs at five and we'll get our offensive lineman at 10 that makes more sense yeah right I think

1:06:12Robert Mays: That's why when they made the trade, to them, that 10th overall pick is more valuable than it is to a team like the Bengals because offensive tackle and receiver are both viable options for the Giants at 10 where it might not be for Cincinnati. And so I think that's honestly where you can make an argument for why Caleb Downs should be the fifth overall pick there rather than waiting because we have more options at 10 based on the positions that might be available that are attractive to us than a lot of other teams would want in that range. That's exactly what I did in my final mock. That was why I went that direction.

1:06:42I went with Downs at five and then Maui Noah at 10. It just seems like that's, if that's, if they feel good about those players, that's the best combination to make sure you come away with the, the best value at that point.

1:06:55Derrik Klassen: Dave, do you have any others? Any other big questions that you're sitting here wrestling with? This is a fitting time to bring this up. Cause I just can't stop thinking ironically about a team that doesn't have a pick right now, but the last two years we talk about it and we map it out. and you feel like you've got a good handle for what everybody wants and what everybody needs, and then like the Atlanta Falcons just nuke the first round of the draft two years in a row, like Pennix and the James Pierce trade, like for all of the educated guesses we can make, somebody's going to do something insane.

1:07:27Derrik Klassen: For better or for worse. Like it could be insanely good. Like maybe somebody makes some crazy trade that gets everybody excited. Do you have a prediction? No, because that's what makes it great. I mean, I was thinking back over the years, and like I said, it doesn't have to be like Atlanta making a trade, but like, remember the Cole Strange pick? I'll never forget that. I made noises I never made before when that happened.

1:07:50Robert Mays: It was one of my favorite moments in the history of doing this job was when Cole Strange got picked, and we were sitting in that living room in Las Vegas, and Dane reacted to it.

1:07:56Derrik Klassen: I brought it up a couple shows ago, but whatever year it was that the Raiders went Cleland Farrell and Alex Leatherwood with their picks. I also remember where I was when that happened. It's like, what on earth is going on?

1:08:08Robert Mays: What are you doing, man?

1:08:09Derrik Klassen: And so, like, making a prediction is against the spirit of what I'm saying because somebody's going to do something that you could never predict. Right, right. Their board is so different than what we've been led to believe that it's going to lead to something crazy. Or they love a player so much. I mean, talk about a good one. Kansas City traded for Pat Mahomes coming off of a string of playoff appearances with a different quarterback who was still on their team. There's no predicting that. ahead of time. And so. Last time they picked in the top 10. Who's going to be this year's what the hell's going on team?

1:08:43Derrik Klassen: It's always something I get excited about. Texans maybe? They're the team with the ammo. And they historically have like the smallest draft boards. And so like they have very focused on who they want and they don't care what anyone else thinks or whatever, you know, in terms of value at certain points. And so I could see the Texans being that team.

1:09:06Robert Mays: One of the others that I had is just what happens with Kenyon Sadiq, like where he goes. Yeah. That's another wide range guy. Who is the Kenyon Sadiq team? Who has decided they're going to eat ice cream for dinner? It feels a little bit like there's been less talk of him in like the top 15 the last like two or three weeks. I feel in like early March, like February, partly because of the combine, obviously, there was a lot of like, yo, Sadiq might go as high as nine to the Kansas City Chiefs. And it does feel like that's tempered down a lot. Let's say if you're the Bucs, right? And this is a team where it's just like, you gave them Mesidor out of sheer default.

1:09:38Right.

1:09:39Robert Mays: And you're sitting there, and if you're the Bucs, and you're like, we think this is the best player. Right. I don't think there should be anything really preventing them from doing that. I'd include Baltimore in there, too. Yes, agreed. 14-15. I think that's where maybe, I guess you can't rule out the Chiefs at nine, but I think realistically 14-15 is probably the earliest. And then I think there's like a five-pick stretch where we could see them go 18-19. I think the Vikings and the Panthers, both those spots potentially make sense. And then where I put Sadiq in my final mock was the Philadelphia at 23.

1:10:12Now, I think it comes down to offensive line or Sadiq in this scenario, but it's a short-term solution and a long-term solution. All the tight ends on that roster, they're up at the end of 2026 season. If A.J. Brown's no longer going to be on this team, they need another pass catcher, another weapon. And so I think about that offense, and I just think it could fit. So I think it's a good thing to bring up because Sadiq will be one of those wild cards in the top 25.

1:10:41Robert Mays: What are the chances that the Eagles are the very aggressive Jordan Tyson team? Oof. Like we're sitting there with Miami on the board at 11. It's a long way to go up.

1:10:56Derrik Klassen: 23 to 11. Oof. Do you think, though, I've been thinking about this since the Dexter Lawrence trade. I think, Robert, we align. I think we all align that you have to divorce yourself from standard operating procedure. The number 10 pick in this draft is not the same as the number 10 pick in another draft. And so you sit there and say 23 to 11 is a crazy jump, but could it potentially be cheaper this year if that's how we feel about this draft? Also, the other thing is, what are you getting back for A.J. Brown?

1:11:30Robert Mays: Also true. We don't know that yet. Are you getting a two and change in next year's draft? And if you're getting a two and change in next year's draft, are you okay giving up your one in next year's draft? Like, there's a lot of different layers to this. They also, they have five top, they have four picks in the top 100. They have six picks in the first four rounds. Philly does this year. And so they have some ammunition, and they will be having even more depending on what they get back in the A.J. Brown trade. It's fascinating because I think that Howie Roseman has shown he will be aggressive to get blue chip talent.

1:12:09I mean, earlier today I was talking with Zach Berman about the Eagles and their different scenarios and different things that they could do. And he was very much of the belief that if the right blue chipper is there, you know quote unquote blue chipper if that's how the eagles view him they will not hesitate to go get him um it's just we don't know who that is could it be sadiq could it be a receiver is it one of these offensive tackles that maybe they like more than the others um but i i don't think it'd be a shock if the eagles are the aggressive team i also think that they're in a weird spot where this philly is usually in a team where they can draft from like a power and luxury position where it's like oh our roster is awesome we can kind of just do whatever they get kind of need more than they usually need like lane johnson's kind of on his way out i think the interior of the offensive line if they wanted to could think about that obviously dickerton's health i think steen has been an okay player but would not be surprised if they wanted to improve on him at some point obviously aj brown's probably going to be out of the building dallas goddard

1:13:07Derrik Klassen: for how he's probably going to be out of the building for how much we've liked the eagles rosters over recent years like it's it's not hard to find a few spots that you'd like to upgrade Marcus Epps is their starting trunk safety. There's a lot of holes on this team.

1:13:20Robert Mays: But I'll say this. If all that is true, but the offensive line, those are contingency plans, right? Those are next year we may need a replacement for Lane Johnson. If they trade A.J. Brown, look at the state of that wide receiver group, even with a Hollywood Brown in there now. I still feel like if they trade A.J. Brown and they have designs on wanting to be really competitive this year, I think you can make a really serious argument that being really aggressive for a guy like Jordan Tyson because, like, we need this if we end up trading A.J. Brown. This is a skill set we need on the roster in order for us to be viable as an offense this year.

1:13:57Robert Mays: I think that becomes, like, a screaming need in a way where their feet get held to the fire a little bit to do something about it.

1:14:03Derrik Klassen: And it doesn't sound like the Eagles to be like, ah, Smitty and Hollywood got it. Like, that's not how the Eagles typically do things. They're usually like, no, just keep throwing shit at the problem. I think then for me it becomes like, do you think Jordan Tyson is so good that it's worth giving up all that, whatever it might cost, and not potentially being able to fill safety in the second round or whatever it's going to be, rather than just like taking Denzel Boston, 23. And not only that, but I mean, the whole thing with Jordan Tyson is just health. I mean, that's something that's so like, I mean, I think Jordan Tyson, Stefan Dix, that that's he's been a top 12 player for me throughout the process until we got to the combine and the injury stuff really became highlighted.

1:14:42And it's like, all right, well, I'm not sure what we do with this. But if you're a team that doesn't have as much risk or there's always gonna be a risk, but maybe more tolerance for the risk, then. Yeah, but at the same time, I don't know that he's even there at 11. I think there's a good chance Tyson, his floor is 10 in the Giants. I think there's a good chance he goes top eight somewhere.

1:15:03Derrik Klassen: So it might not even be an option for Tyson took Kenyon Sadiq's place, you know, like Sadiq was that guy at the combine. And now Tyson seems to be relatively healthy. And it's like, no, all right, we're swapping these. Because during combine time, we were like, oh, my God, Tyson's health. Like, is he going to be able to play football for three years? I'm the one that said I was terrified of Jordan Tyson. And I still am. But I saw him jump in that workout video, and I was like, ooh, that does look fun. I don't know. But that's funny because we did that with Jermon McCoy, and now we're like two weeks after that, and it's like, actually, his knee might not work.

1:15:38Robert Mays: Any other big questions you guys want to throw out there before we get out of here tonight? When can we start?

1:15:45Derrik Klassen: When do the Raiders go on the clock? I think I'm good. I think we covered a lot of the stuff that we wanted. it was a lot of tackle talk which was kind of how i think this draft is going to be shaped a lot of

1:15:55Robert Mays: tackle talk tomorrow how you feeling this is like this is christmas eve for you oh yeah this is uh biggest day of the year christmas um i i cannot wait because i look this is the final podcast that we'll have to do about how potential fits and how this could fit like i'm so glad to be done talking about it i'm ready to be talking about all right how does this fit how i see what they're thinking here and so i look forward to those talks very much i enjoy the week after the draft and the shows we do the week after the draft more than i enjoy the week before the draft just because i'm i'm in the same boat like all the speculation is fun and like if you're a prediction market guy i'm sure this is a wonderful week for you i'm not so i'm really looking forward to actually knowing where the players are going to go and what the teams are going to look like I just, I love the draft so much because from mid season onward, just like, ah, this draft sucks.

1:16:52Derrik Klassen: It's not a, it's not a good draft. And like, we're going to ramp up the speculation and the excitement anyway. Like people like it, it's so fun and it's, it's one of the highlights of the off season. And it doesn't, it doesn't matter at the end of the day. Like it's, it's what the draft represents that gets people excited. And I, I can't help, but it's swept up in it too.

1:17:12Robert Mays: This is, we've all decided, and I think correctly, and after digging into the players and just looking at, it is a down year. We've all decided that. My team is picking 25th. I will convince myself in 90 seconds that TJ Parker is a multi-time All-Pro if he has drafted 25th overall. It's a beautiful one. It will happen immediately, and that is why the draft has the interest that it does. It's the best. It's a magical power. It is.

1:17:38Derrik Klassen: You know, I think some people roll their eyes at it, but I love it. I love it every year, and I can't wait to talk about this one. I can't wait to get ready for the next one. It's seeing the presents under the tree. It could be anything. It could be this, could be that. And after you open the presents, sometimes you're ecstatic. Sometimes they're socks, and that's okay. But, yeah, there's nothing like this. It's a down year for everybody else, but not for me.

1:18:01Robert Mays: That's exactly how it's going to play out. All right, that's all we got tonight, guys. Sincerely appreciate everybody for checking in. Just a reminder, if you're listening to this on Thursday morning, 7.30 p.m. Eastern on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel, the four of us plus Bruce Feldman baking down every single pick in the first round as they happen. Again, I've said it multiple times over the last week or so, one of my favorite nights of the entire year. Love doing it with these guys. We would love it if you would come and spend the time with us. And then we'll be back on Friday, 6.30 p.m.

1:18:33Robert Mays: Eastern, breaking down every pick of rounds two and three. Bruce will be gone, but it'll still be the four of us. Have a couple people on from The Athletic to kind of go over what happened on night one, some of the more interesting things that we saw. So very much looking forward to these streams over the next two days. If you have not checked them out in previous years, now is the time to do it. The Athletic Football Show YouTube channel is the place. For now, that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

1:19:04Robert Mays: If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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