Predictions and award picks for the 2026 NFL season

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1:26Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. It is Predictions Day here on The Athletic Football Show. We are laying out our picks for every major season-long award and our playoff division winner picks and the Super Bowl. That's what we did today with me, Dave, and Derek. A quick bit of housekeeping before we dig into that. our in-season schedule this year on the athletic football show pretty much the same as it was last year sunday night recaps live on the youtube channel would love you guys would come join us for those live while we're doing them the audio will be in your feet on mondays tuesdays me and derek doing the monday hangover picking three games or so that we didn't talk about on the previous night's recap wednesdays is building the beast with dave and dane all of your draft coverage available every Wednesday throughout the season.

2:18Robert Mays: Thursday, me and the guests, same as we did last year. Those shows will be all over the place, whatever I find interesting, whatever I'm curious about that week. And then Friday, we will have our weekly previews. The big change this year, we will have the Monday night and Thursday night recaps available as audio podcasts in your feed every single time we do them, which I think we're planning to do every Monday and Thursday night this year. We still will be doing them live on YouTube. Would love if you guys would come join us on YouTube for those shows. But either way, they will be available as podcasts for the first time this year for a whole variety of reasons.

2:51Robert Mays: But if you guys are not YouTube consumers, not YouTube subscribers, which you all should be at this point, because we also have a more robust video specific YouTube plan coming to you this year. But if not, you will be able to listen to those as podcasts for the first time. That's really the big change. Other than that, you're regularly scheduled programming here on the athletic football show. And that That includes our yearly predictions, our yearly prediction and awards episode, which is coming to you right now.

3:27Robert Mays: It's about that time, gentlemen. We have football tonight. The season kicks off. Super Bowl recap or Super Bowl rematch. Excuse me. Super Bowl recap wouldn't be as fun. Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and the Patriots. So we are celebrating this the only way we know how. It is time for some predictions about how this NFL season will go. I've alluded to this, Derek, at some point over the last month or so. I don't know if I've ever had a harder time whittling down the teams. Like, I feel so unconvicted about especially some of the playoff team choices this year just because I think it's so tight in the AFC that you could go so many different directions.

4:05Robert Mays: So no matter what we do, people are going to be mad about some of these decisions. But that is the nature of the league as we entered the 2026 season.

4:12Dave Helman: I actually almost think because there are so many viable playoff teams, I almost felt better about it because it made it easier to just be like, you have to accept that two or three teams will be good and probably be left off.

4:24Robert Mays: Yes. They don't have to accept. Right. They don't have to accept.

4:27Dave Helman: But like, and the other, I just feel like some other years, it's like you're kind of hemming and hawing over like, is my seventh seed really a playoff team? And that to me is more excruciating than being like, Like the team I'm picking seventh is a playoff team. Sure, I'm leaving a couple off, but I at least feel better about that. I ran through one of those season simulators just to sort of help visualize everything. And when I got to the end of it, I was like, shit, this is completely opposite of what I thought it was going to be. And it's impossible trying to sort through all this.

4:57Robert Mays: I don't even have anything that's overly spicy. I mean, there's maybe one division winner that might be a little bit surprising, maybe a couple. But I think you could talk yourself into pretty much any of them. So that's just the nature of what the league looks like.

5:08Dave Helman: I think that it's easy to go chalk because there's so many chalk worthwhile picks where it would seem like, oh, this team that maybe has the 11th best odds to make the playoffs in the AFC.

5:17Robert Mays: And we'll talk about it. In the AFC, there were nine teams. It was one of the sportsbooks I was looking at because I was just curious. Nine teams had minus odds to make the playoffs.

5:26Dave Helman: I was talking about that with Bella before the show. Nine.

5:28Robert Mays: And so the nine that I came up with, I was like, how do I pick between these? and when I saw that and I saw how close it all was stacked together it made me feel so much better that it was just excruciating to whittle it down from nine to seven but again that made me feel

5:43Dave Helman: better I was like listen you just have to accept it's gonna be what it's gonna be I'm so curious

5:48Robert Mays: if that's happened before anytime recently where nine teams had minus odds to make the playoffs it seems incredibly unlikely to the extent that it's not even possible the Jags were the closest one to even and i think what i was looking at yesterday they were like minus 110

6:07Robert Mays: it's like your standard money line favorite yes so it's just an incredibly strange year and i we're already getting out of i'm already getting out ahead of my apology because i feel bad about the couple of teams i left off all right we're gonna start though not with playoff teams or super bowl picks all of that we're gonna start with player individual awards we do this every year we start with a couple of the big ones and then get some of the more mid-range ones before We're getting to the headline stuff like MVP. Let's start with defensive player of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off? Who is your choice for defensive player of the year?

6:40Robert Mays: And for all of these, we're also going to throw out like one long shot bet that we think is at least interesting that was on the board. Do you want me to do both at once? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, because for a lot of these, I just and I know it's a frustrating thing to do to pick award winners because there's a certain logic that follows picking these award winners that frankly is kind of boring. And so I'll just say at the beginning, if I was actually going to place money on somebody to win defensive player of the year, it would be Will Anderson. I mean, what he's already done, he was third in the league in pressures last year.

7:15He led the league in pass rush win rate per PFF. He had 12 sacks. He is the face of one of the league's truly elite defenses. And unlike a defense like Seattle, where there's eight guys, I mean, it's him and Daniil Hunter, all due respect to Derek Stingley. It's him and Daniil Hunter that I have to dare. Sorry, buddy. It's okay. That's his main competition is his own edge rusher. So, like, if Will Anderson has the exact same season, but has 15 or 16 sacks instead of 12, that's beyond obvious and, like, a beyond easy pick.

7:48Robert Mays: I'll take it one step further. If Will Anderson has the exact same season he had last year, and if Miles Garrett doesn't have the sacks, then Will Anderson is probably the defensive player of the year. Yeah, if the other guy doesn't break records, you probably have a pretty good chance to get Will Anderson. So you really don't need me to tell you that Will Anderson might win Defensive Player of the Year. So if I'm stepping out on a limb a little bit and having a little bit more fun, can I interest you in an all-pro from another defense that we think has the chance to be the best in the NFL? Quinion Mitchell.

8:18is also my long shot pick. Let's go. It's a very logical place to land. And I was given the courage to do it based on Patrick Sertan doing this two years ago. Not that long ago, yeah. It would probably require some things breaking his way. Maybe Miles Garrett splits, you know, sacks with Aaron Donald or Byron Young or whoever. And maybe the Houston guys just aren't quite as amazing as we think they'll be. But Quinion Mitchell, he's already a household name. He's a first team all pro last year. he plays for an NFC East team. So we already know the eyeballs are going to be on him and they're going to be playing a ton of big games.

8:56We think this is going to be a top five, maybe even better defense. And he's already widely seen as a top five, six corner in the NFL. And it's not crazy to think that he could make another leap in that progression this year. 29 pass breakups over his two years in the NFL. No interceptions in the regular season. That's the problem. Okay, but is it a problem? Because in two playoff games, he has four. So it's not like he can't get them. He just hasn't gotten them in the regular season.

9:27Robert Mays: I just think there's two, the lack of regular season interceptions. I just think you have to have so many of them to win defensive player of the year. I would disagree because Patrick Sertan only had four. Here's the other wrinkle to that, though. When you play in a man-heavy defense, there can be a drumbeat about what you are within that defense that I think allows your value to extend beyond whether you're taking the ball away. For the most part, in order to win long regular season awards as a defensive back, you need crazy counting stats or you need a narrative-driven thing like Patrick Sertan had where this team plays a ton of man, it's all him, he's the driving force behind it.

10:02Robert Mays: The Eagles aren't that sort of defense. So that's my only thing holding me back.

10:06Dave Helman: I think they could be a little bit more of that defense this year because they did play a lot of man on third down last year. Yeah, but it's not to the same expense.

10:12Robert Mays: It's not, you know, where he's following the number one.

10:15Dave Helman: But if everyone's talking about, hey, they're playing more man and they're playing more man because they have queen. That's all right. That's actually a good point. That's actually a good point. The thing that's going to bite me in the ass is to reek. Will it watch to reek. Will and finish with six picks. And, you know, Quinn, you on Mitchell's the better corner. But that's what happens all the time. It does. It absolutely does. But I don't know if he plays if he plays another level higher. and this defense is what we think it could be. If it's a top three defense, let's say he gets at least three picks and he's sort of one of the faces of this Eagles defense.

10:49I think it's definitely a long shot, but if we're not going obvious, I think it's as logical as any pick.

10:54Robert Mays: I liked the odds. It's like 50-ish to one. And I think it's just that you can tell yourself a story about how it gets there, even though I think it's a little bit remote. My actual choice is also Will Anderson. I picked him last year. I'm just going to do it again because I think that if he has the exact same season, then he wins defensive player of the year if Miles Garrett doesn't break the sack record. And we've talked a lot about this. I think the Texans have a chance to have a special defense this year. And so if the Texans have that sort of defense, who's going to be the face of that defense, the best player on that defense?

11:25Robert Mays: I think it's probably going to be Will Anderson. You mentioned Daniel Hunter, and I almost picked him as the long shot bet just to kind of cover your bases. But I just it's harder for me to imagine that because even if there's a season, let's just play this out. It happened last year, right? How many sacks did Daniel Hunter have last year?

11:42Dave Helman: He had 15, which is three more than Will Anderson.

11:45Robert Mays: Yes, but no one thought Daniel Hunter was a more important defensive player for the Texas than Will Anderson.

11:49Dave Helman: He would have to have like 20 sacks.

11:52Robert Mays: Exactly. And so I just think that the sack totals, there's a chance that Daniel Hunter has enough of them to get you over the line. But I feel like the impact that Will Anderson is consistently making, and even beyond what you said, Dave, about the total pressure numbers. He had the second most pressures in the league last year per NextGen. He had 38 quick pressures, which was the third most in the NFL. He had an 8.7 % quick pressure rate. Like this, how often and how efficiently he is affecting the quarterback beyond the sack totals and what he is as a run defender. I just think that the season Daniil Hunter would have to have to take away the narrative upper hand from Will Anderson.

12:29Robert Mays: It's just hard for me to imagine that. So that's why I went with Quincy Mitchell.

12:33Dave Helman: I mean, my standard pick is also Will Anderson. It's like Will Anderson or Miles Garrett. I don't really see why you pick anybody else. Realistically, there's like four names that deserve serious consideration. Yeah. We see, and I know I just said Patrick Sertan won this recently, but more often than not, it's a very good bet to go with a pass rusher. And that was a year that just like there were no star pass rushers that year. I mean, Miles Garrett was Miles Garrett, but I think that year he just didn't have as many sacks as he might typically have in a season. You know, he didn't break the record like he did this past season.

13:05Dave Helman: My long shot, also 50-1, tied there with Quinian Mitchell, I had Josh Hans-Allen. Just based on, like, if I'm trying to pick a pass rusher who is really good, but the pressure numbers were better than the sack numbers. Yeah, that's actually a good way to do it. He only had eight sacks last year, but he was fifth in the league in overall pressures. Like, he gets to the quarterback. It's just a matter of being able to finish. So if he just, again, converts five more of those than he did a year ago, and I think it would be kind of a narrative thing, too, because I think if the Jaguars, we're talking about them as a good defense, but we're not really talking about them as like the Eagles or the Rams of like they could be the best in football.

13:41Dave Helman: But if they are the second or third best defense in football, and it's because he's racking up 15 sacks, if I'm picking the long shot, I kind of like that.

13:49Robert Mays: I like the idea of closing the gap between the pressure numbers and the sack numbers and that being the driving force behind it. I think that's a good thing to pick up. All right, let's get to Offensive Player of the Year. Dave, who was your pick for Offensive Player of the Year? This is an obvious pick, but I've been convicted on it since we got into preview mode, and I talked about it in that division preview. I think he is the leading odds getter. He is by a lot, actually. Jameer Gibbs just makes so much sense when you consider the offensive infrastructure, the lack of competition for touches.

14:23they got the quarterback they got the continuity on offense uh jameer gibbs i mean he he's seventh in rushing since entering the league he's third in yards per carry he's third in rushing touchdowns he's fourth in explosive runs second in 20 plus yard runs he averages 11 20 plus yard runs per season and that was all while sharing a backfield with another qualified back and i'm sure over the course of the year for one reason or another something will crop crop up that eats into his overall touch load but if he's relatively healthy i expect his numbers to be bijon adjacent and i think the lions will have a better record than the falcons and the dirty truth is you can't win an award like this going seven and ten yeah team team success matters but you can win an award like this going 10 and 7 or if the lions are even better than that it's i mean he's the favorite for a reason but this was one where i really didn't feel like i had to overthink it at all

15:24Robert Mays: he's also my choice i just think the path for all of those touches in an offense that i expect to be really explosive we've talked about this the lion schedule was not very good i think the defense has a chance to be shaky at best in the early part of the season before brian branch gets back even if I don't think they're going to be a total disaster because I like a lot of the things that they have up front. But if this team has to win a lot of games, like 35 to 31, I just think the offense has a chance to put up crazy numbers.

15:50Dave Helman: And him getting more touches, it helps him in terms of putting up the numbers, obviously, but also I think it's kind of like a narrative boost because coming into the league, it was like, how many touches can you really give Jameer Gibbs? And he had to split time and all this stuff. And so if you get a season where it's like, oh, he really can just get 380 touches and he's going to be able to handle the load, I do think that that would do some work for him for sure.

16:10Robert Mays: 320 is his max. He had 320 touches last year for about 1 ,840 yards from scrimmage. And we've talked about this. Their running game last year just was not very good. His overall numbers, he still averaged five yards to carry because he's so explosive, but they were not consistent down-to-down last year as a run game. I think it will be better this year with at least moderately improved play on the interior and the amount of touches he's going to get. I think he's just a really safe bet. There's a reason. I think he's like plus 550 in a lot of these places. and Bichon's like plus 900. I was going to say he's significantly more highly favored than Bichon.

16:42Robert Mays: Going and looking at some of the long shots, I didn't have anybody that I felt all that excited about. I mean, there are plenty of guys I think you can make a case for. I actually thought for a lot of the reasons that we just said, some of the environmental considerations, Amon Rossane Brown at 25 to 1. If you just look at the consistent work that he has gotten, I don't remember where I said this. I think I might have said it maybe during our fantasy draft that we did at Best Intentions. I remember reading this out loud recently. I'm on Ross St. Brown's last three seasons, 117 for 1 ,411, 115 for 1263 and 12, 119 for 1 ,510.

17:18Yeah. Just imagine pretty automatic yelling that across a bar.

17:21Robert Mays: It's just, it's insane how consistent it's been. And so let's just say it hits that again. He has a few more plays downfield. He finishes the year with, I mean, he's already done it, but let's just say theoretically finishes the year with 1600 receiving yards rather than 15 15 and that goes to 14 or 15 touchdowns that's an offensive player of the year caliber season as a receiver and so i just don't think you have to push him that far to get to that place for him to be 25 to 1 like you look at the odds of other guys he's around like nico collins that's just not happening i honestly that one's not crazy because it would have to be like jsn last well the sheer amount of targets and nico collins might get within that offense but i just don't know if i trust that passing game to be good enough and then aj brown's like right around there too maybe aj brown could put it together a season like that but i just think i'm on rossin brown when you think about the consolidation and the consistency of the workload there is a path for me for him to get there compared to some of the other guys that he's sitting around like cd lamb has similar odds i just don't see that the cowboys receivers scared me and just could because they're both in that offense is it 40 to 1 that's in it's somewhat interesting but i just don't know how you get the work if cd's healthy for most of the season you You won't be surprised to hear this.

18:34If you listen to the division previews, I think my opinions, at least, are not going to be surprising. But 75 to one Jalen Waddle as a tasty little treat. I did see that. And I was like, that seems really long. If he goes, if he Jalen Waddle has not had 75 catches, he hasn't had more than 75 catches since 2022. Obviously, he was sharing the offense with Tyreek Hill for the bulk of that. And then the Dolphins passing offense just kind of fell off last year. if Bo Nix funnels the offense through him and he is really good. And another thing. He led the league in past attempts last year, Bo Nix did.

19:08Led the league. I try so hard to think narratively about this stuff. Jalen Waddle's the only thing that's different. And so if the Broncos offense is awesome, it's easy to imagine people pointing at it and saying, well, Jalen Waddle changed everything for the Denver Broncos. He's the offensive player of the year. I don't think that's likely, but that's why he's 75 to 1. put$5 on that. I don't think you're going to regret it. I mean, that's basically how Barkley won it.

19:34Dave Helman: Yeah, absolutely. Who was yours? So my actual pick was a nod, Jameer Gibbs. Mine was Justin Jefferson.

19:41Robert Mays: I like that as well. And I think he's a somewhat long shot. Yeah.

19:44Dave Helman: He's like, what is it? He's like 16 ish to one.

19:48Robert Mays: Yeah. It's like in the mid teens,

19:49Dave Helman: like to one, which, and he's like fifth overall in odds, which that's probably the lowest. You're so in. I am. You are so in.

19:56Robert Mays: You've talked yourself in so hard for the Kyler in Minnesota.

19:58Dave Helman: It's a couple of things. One, and I said this on our draft, Justin Jefferson's average season before last year was 99 catches, 1 ,480 yards, and eight touchdowns. That's an average season for him, and that includes missing seven games in 2023. And so I just think him getting quarterback play, that is anything than what he got last year, I think can get him there. And this also is probably like the longest odds you might ever get on Justin Jefferson winning this award. Like if you think about it that way. Like the middle of the second round

20:27Robert Mays: in every single fantasy draft. There's a chance that just Justin Jefferson wins you every league. You'll never get to buy low like that on him again. I just don't, I think it's more so that, it's not that I'm out on the Vikings offense. I just don't think I believe at this stage quite as strongly as you do because I think Kyler is such a specific kind of player that there's enough guesswork involved in what it's going to look like that I just can't get myself fully there. That's one where I gotta see it. I just, I have to see it over like a one or two week span for me to actually get a sense of exactly what it's going to be for me to fully believe in it.

21:02I like how it varies between the three of us, but everybody's got the thing that they're just wholesaling on sight unseen. But then at the same time, you're like, I got to see it. I need, I need three weeks with this before I can believe in it.

21:14Robert Mays: Sometimes that stuff just happens where you, there's something about it. And again, it's just like with Kyler, it's the areas of the field that he accesses. And if we're going to have, if you have an entire season with Justin Jefferson, where the intermediate middle of the field is just off limits. Can he have the sort of season where he's the offensive player of the year? I think he can. He probably can. He's good enough for it. But it's just like, it just doesn't make it harder to get there.

21:37Dave Helman: That's kind of my thought.

21:38Robert Mays: If there is isn't a world where he can have that new clear season because the offense has to paint itself into a corner a little bit in the areas that it can attack and what it looks like. Is that enough for him to lose out even if he could have a much better season he did a year ago? There's just there's enough uncertainty about what it looks like in practice with a guy that is just unlike any other quarterback in the league for the most part that I have to see it before I believe it. I get it. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about a couple coaches. Are you the kind of sports fan that wants to dig into the story behind the stats?

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25:27Robert Mays: All right, Coach of the Year. This is another one that obviously we have a sense of what coaches of the year have looked like over time. We understand what the archetype for people who win this award look like. I find it fascinating that the two leaders in coach of the year ads right now are John Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. I feel like that's pretty perfect though. There's something really telling about that. And even still beyond that, the three leading candidates in terms of odds are all new head coaches, which that shouldn't be surprising to us at all because that's typically who wins this award.

26:01Robert Mays: Derek, who is your pick for coach of the year in 2026.

26:05Dave Helman: Mine actually is Jesse Minter because I just think that there's a chance that like, I don't think the most likely outcome is the Ravens win 14 games, but I think it's absolutely on the board that the defense is just awesome again. And Lamar looks great and they win 13, 14 games. And it's like, okay, he brought this team back to what it's supposed to look like.

26:21Robert Mays: Yeah. It's the idea of Vega, you want a and Trey Hendrickson enough to take away from the idea that Jesse Minter could take the same roster in Baltimore for the most part that didn't make the playoffs last year and turn them into the number one seed in the AFC it's not hard to imagine at all they have the highest over under of any team in the AFC it's 11 and a half games you think they have to be like one seed caliber for him to win the award I don't think so I think that's often for quarterbacks that has to happen but if they're an 11 or 12 win team in the winner of the AFC North after missing the playoffs last year that's more than enough to put you in position

26:54Dave Helman: to be coach of the year especially if the defense feels like that's another part of it right where

26:58Robert Mays: And that's the best example where the offense has been really good over the last couple of years. The defense since Mike McDonald left just hasn't been at that level. And he is working with outside of Troy Hendrickson. And I know that's a real consideration. But for the most part, it's the same defensive roster that we've had over the last couple of years. If you take that from a middle of the pack, slightly below average defense from last year, and you turn it into the third best defense in the league, it's very easy to paint the picture and tell that story. It's a clean sweep. I had men or two for all of the reasons that y 'all just outlined, but that makes me itchy because it's boring.

27:34And that's so it is. It's a boring award though. And I think it's, it's the award that pisses me off the most consistently because of the, of the things we weigh when we award it.

27:45Robert Mays: I just think it's really difficult to figure out the exact right parameters for it, because if you have a good team and you just do a good job with that good roster, you're, you're never going to get it. But there are a couple guys that I think fit that bill to a degree that I did like as long shots. What if the Seahawks are just like 15 and two? Yeah, just like do it again. Because you're not you're very. They would have to be for the coach of the reigning champions to win this. But I don't think that's off the table. I think that there is a chance that the Seahawks are just so good again. And we can build on this idea of people weren't paying enough attention to the Seahawks.

28:20Robert Mays: They're better than you think they are. And the reason that I think this is possible for Seattle in a way that it might not be possible for another team, and Mike McDonald at 40-1 is the long shot that I'm talking about. There's no consolidation of credit on Seattle's roster. There's no Lamar. There's no Josh Allen. The offense is, you have the offense player of the year from last year, but no one's going to be like, oh, yeah, the reason that the Seahawks are great is because of JSN, because it's driven by the defense. And the fact that the defense doesn't have one standalone superstar among that group, who is the most famous member of the Seahawks' defensive ecosystem to people outside of the Seattle building right now?

29:02Spoon, maybe just because he was a top five pick? It's probably Spoon, but even that doesn't. He's not as famous as Sir Tan. We're talking about the football-watching populace in general. I don't think Spoon in that category is like this household name.

29:18Robert Mays: Well, the argument that I would make is it's Mike McDonald. Yeah, probably. And so I think that those circumstances just put him in a slightly different position than a coach of a reigning Super Bowl champion might ever be. Because I think that in a lot of ways, the Patriots won Super Bowls like this, but Tom Brady was there.

29:37Dave Helman: Yeah.

29:37Robert Mays: And so this is just so different. Like the entire conversation around them changes because of who the best players are, what the team feels like, why it feels that way. And so Mike McDonald really building on last year and having this kind of runaway case of, is he just the best coach in the league? I don't think that would surprise me if that unfolded over the course of this year. So at 40 to one, I at least think that's interesting. I think that's that would be fun if it happened because coaches like coaches of good teams just being ineligible to win this award has always been bullshit. So it would be fun if he were able to buck that trend.

30:14Dan Campbell's 20 to one. That's what I was about. I think that's a pretty good one. He's at 25 to one on the site.

30:20Robert Mays: I'm looking at his long outs when you compare it to the favorites. Considering you want to talk about household name. And even with all the star power on that roster, Dan Campbell is like the face of that organization. And if they go from worst to first, and if they stack a lot of wins, which I'm going to talk about later in the show, like if, I mean, if Detroit has a surprisingly good record, be good for this guy who has the lions in the windspool. I could absolutely see that. And, like, he's come close to winning this award before. The fact that he never has. Yeah. I think also makes it a fun choice because he should have.

30:54Robert Mays: There are multiple years where he had a really strong case and you could make an argument for him and he never has won it.

30:58Dave Helman: Bringing the Lions back from what they were is, like, he deserves some sort of, like, body of work. Yeah, like, he deserves hardware for having done what he's done, even if it should have happened already. Yeah.

31:08Robert Mays: Yeah, in 2024 would have been the season that he would have done it. obviously the Vikings won it that year and uh or kind of kind of won it that year because the Vikings won 14 games the entire Sam Darnold part of that but the way that Dan Campbell put together that Lions team and how good that Lions team was that would have been the year and so I think this could be a way of rewarding him maybe in the aftermath of never having won it before despite having some really impressive seasons let's talk about offensive rookie of the year Derek who was your pick for offensive rookie of the year i actually went the boring route one of the two

31:43Dave Helman: boring routes i think and i think it was easy to come off of this after the preseason but i kind of still think carnell tate's going to be really really good and so i just went with interesting and i don't know i'm if if you tell me fernando mendoza plays 12 games it will probably be fernando mendoza i think there's enough murkiness there that i'm not willing to just like jump head into that I can't bet on I can't I can't pick a guy that I don't know when he's going to get into the line yeah it just makes it I mean even if I'm wrong about that because like again I'm not saying Kirk Cousins is going to light the world on fire but like when Jacoby Brissett was ahead of Drake May it was very obvious that that just wasn't going to last for very long and I don't know how long Kirk is going to play again but I again I think there's a little bit more uncertainty there so I just still think that Cardinal Tate is going to be really good I know the preseason was weird for him and for the offense in general but top five receiver I still think he's very good at a lot of things and gives the offense something that they very obviously did not have last year so I'm still willing to ride with him this also might be partly just like Jeremiah Love is not healthy walking into week one so he's gonna play though yeah but he's like but he's gonna be ready it's not that he's not gonna play but like him going into the season with health issues I was

32:50Robert Mays: like I don't love that I understand that I still just think if you look at all the factors playing into it jeremy love is my pick i just feel i have enough systemic concerns about the state of the titans offense where picking anyone in that offense would worry me the idea that carnell tate gets like 90 targets but catches 55 of them for 700 yards is not that crazy to me which is

33:13Dave Helman: probably fairly likely like i do think that that's like a relatively likely outcome i think when when i got down to that i think i just didn't feel that much better about the cardinals ecosystem either.

33:23Robert Mays: I think the offense has a chance to be decently fun.

33:25Dave Helman: I think the Titans offense has a chance to be decently fun. I don't know if I'm going to like watching it, but I think that we're a little bit burned by how the preseason looked. I think that they can be better. Here's my question for you, Robert. How good do you think the Cardinals can be this year?

33:40Robert Mays: Does it matter, though? I think it does. And that's what I was going to bring up is like, if you look back through recent Offensive Rookie of the Year winners, they don't have to be good teams but you don't see a lot of winners on dog shit teams and i think the cardinals unfortunately might have dog shit potential i just feel like he has it when you look at this year's draft class specifically it's such a weird class of skill position players like the positions and the situations those guys are in i just don't know how many guys have a better pathway to the right combination of production and team success all the guys that i think have a route to production i just don't have faith in how good those teams are going to be right i mean it's Like the other guys that are up there, I don't think the Titans are going to be very good.

34:23Robert Mays: I don't think the Browns are going to be very good.

34:25Dave Helman: The Browns were like the Browns receivers talent wise. I would want to pick them. There's no shot with that quarterback.

34:29Robert Mays: And just how many other skill position players are worth picking in this way? And the fact that Mendoza isn't going to play in a one quarterback draft. It's just a very weird year. It is a weird year. For rookie skill position players. And I think that's why I'm just tempted to be like, let's just go with Jeremiah Love. he's gonna get 280 carries and he's probably gonna do a decent work with them and so if he finishes the year with like 1150 rushing yards and eight touchdowns and no one else really does anything that to me feels like a not far off possibility for this group specifically the 2019 cardinals went 5 10 and 1 when kyler won it and the 2020 chargers went 7 and 9 when justin herbert won it those are quarterbacks though and like with everything that jeremiah love is going to be depending on to be successful i just i i think you kind of need to be frisky to win this award i and you're right though it is your year who do you think is going to be frisky enough to win it i think jadarian price has a runway to be the bell cow for the defending super bowl champs and like i just don't think he'll get the work zach charbonnet will be back eventually but if he takes it and runs with it i mean if jadarian price runs for a thousand yards and six touchdowns for a team that makes the playoffs that seems really straightforward i think it totally depends on when charbonnet comes back and how much they want to split up the carries this is also a question i don't i probably know the answer to this whether they've come out and said it's kind of an organizational decision to split the work in a way that he used to or whether that was mostly a clint kubiak consideration i assume it might be a little bit of both i don't know but i just think that there's reason to believe based on history that when charbonnet gets back he'll cut into it enough to limit the amount of total work that jadarian price it's entirely possible in the story i'm telling myself by week four it's just like okay maybe he's so good don't take your time

36:19Dave Helman: zach we want you slowly healthy yeah if he has like a crazy first month and it just gets implanted in everyone's mind and then nobody else runs away with it it's like he he might just like it's a good bit it's a good ride it out for the whole year having said that i really love my long shot here and it doesn't apply to anything I just said about friskiness. But Casey Concepcion at 18 to 1. I hear your concerns about the quarterback. I want to. He's my answer as well. He, I, this could age so poorly. But I feel like he might be quarterback proof. A, because of his ability to get separation. It's the type of targets he's going to get.

36:52The type of targets he's going to get.

36:53Robert Mays: There are so many touches for him in the offense. Monken is smart. He's going to draw up easy looks for him. Monken drew up nine rushing touches per year for Zay Flowers and that was when he had Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Yeah. He's going to do more than that for Casey Concepcion. There's going to be easy targets near the line of scrimmage. Also, he's expected to be the punt returner. I know that's not technically offense, but like if he does some crazy shit as a returner. Returns one or two, that puts you in the conversation in a different way. I, yeah, 18 to one. And the amount that I expect Mankin to draw up for him is very intriguing.

37:27Robert Mays: He was also my choice. And again, I think that the schemed up touches and just how central he is to the offensive plan as part of that. But again, we're talking about so many players just in really bad situations potentially winning this award. It's not a great year. It's a weird year. Even going back to the fantasy thing, like can you remember a fantasy season, Beller, where there were so few players that people were excited about, especially in recent times when receivers are so central to like draft strategy and getting ahead of those guys? This year has just been so strange. There were more quarterbacks two years ago than there were total guys this year, which I think speaks to just what this group of players is from a statistical production standpoint.

38:07Robert Mays: In any other year, Carnel Tate would be such a sought-after fantasy asset as we go into the season. And even he has been one of those guys where it's like, what round is he going in? It's not very high. And I think that just speaks to the overall enthusiasm for the class. And again, the fact that Love was hurt, like it's just been one of the weirder preseasons for an entire skill position group of rookies that I can remember. All right, let's get to defensive rookie of the year. Derek, I'm going to let you start this off because I think I know who your answer is and mine is the same one.

38:36Dave Helman: It's Reuben Bain. Oh, really? I think so. I am bought in on... We're aligned. I am bought in on the Bucs defense. Wait, so you're not aligned. Derek and I are in on Reuben Bain. I figured you meant Arvel Reese, who I think is a very good bet. I'm picking Arvel Reese. Arvel Reese, I think there's a chance that he has the more like, holy shit, what did that guy just do plays. But I do think I'm bought in on the Bucs defense as a whole, which I think can narratively work for Ruben Bain. If Ruben Bain gets eight and a half, nine sacks for a Bucs defense that kind of surges and looks like a top 10 unit again, and they win the NFC South, you're like, they drafted Ruben Bain to be this like attitude difference maker.

39:13Dave Helman: And oh my God, he is. He's guaranteed to get a lot of snaps. He plays a position that lends itself to a good statistical resume and the team could win the division. Yeah. It's a very straightforward case. Not to shit on Arvel Reese. I'm really excited about him. But I imagine I imagine Arvel Reese being the guy where like us and Ted and when are talking about it in week eight. And we're just like, Jesus Christ, did you see what he did to that lead blocker right there? And like the actual statistical performance isn't amazing. He's just a very fun player.

39:44Robert Mays: I guess there had been when I was looking back at history recently, I guess I thought there had been more off ball linebackers who had won it in part because it's a it's a position where you can rack up on consequential stats. Right. If he has a shitload of tackles and he has four or five really impressive splash plays. But before Carson Schlesinger won it last year, the last off-ball linebacker to win Defense Player of the Year was Shaq Leonard. I guess I just don't really remember that. It mostly has been pass rushers.

40:10Dave Helman: And before that, it was Luke Kuechly in 2012. It used to be an award that you could win a lot. There was a run from, I'm looking at it now, from like 2004 to 2009. Maybe that's what I have burned into my brain. I'm looking at the same list. D 'Amico Ryan's right after that. Patrick Willis, Gerard Mayo, Brian Cushing. It was like all these guys won it. And since 2010, it's really only been three of these off-ball linebackers. And so I think Arvel Reese is, like, if I picked a second person, it probably was going to be Arvel Reese. But I just think Ruben Bain, because of the team he plays for, the profile that he might have, like, I was pretty excited to see what he's going to do.

40:42I hope Arvel Reese wins it. I picked the Giants in the defense pool. That would be fantastic for me.

40:47Robert Mays: I picked the Cowboys, and that's also why I would be open to the idea of Caleb Downs winning it. That's one I can get behind. If the Cowboys are a really good team, Their defensive turnaround is one of the stories of the season. If he plays well, that's one where I feel like the narrative element of it could really drive that forward, even if his counting stats in any one area aren't going to compare to the off-ball. Absolutely could. God, would that piss off Seahawks fans or what? If like the year after Imanwari couldn't get over the top, Caleb Downs comes in and does it for the Cowboys.

41:15Dave Helman: There's a chance that Downs, though, like because he's going to play the role that he's going to play, like kind of has a smattering of like every possible stat. And I do think that if nobody runs away with it, it's like the worst case is he has not enough of any of it.

41:29Robert Mays: One is sack, one interception over the course of the season. But if he does feel like the linchpin of a defense that gets completely turned around, the problem for him and worry is, again, how many more players on the Seattle defense are more famous or important than Nicky Manwari? A lot of them. And I do think that they're more central to their success. like Witherspoon, Byron, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams. Like those guys are better players on that defense. We're better players last year. There's a chance that other than Quinn and Williams, we get to a place where Caleb Downs on the 17th best defense in the league or the 15th best defense in the league feels like the second best player by the time the season is over.

42:06I thought about bringing up Quinn and as a long shot for defensive player of the year. I just, I couldn't get there at the end of the day.

42:11Robert Mays: I just don't know if the, even if you're bullish on the defense, I'm just not sure the defense can be good enough to justify something. like that all right so i had arville reese as my winner for the reasons that we said i just think that there's a chance that you look at what he did in the preseason like dude it was killing people the entire year even if it's a hard position to win the award from huge market he'll there'll be a ton of attention on him if the defense is better than we expect if they're the unit that actually really does turn it around that that's probably one more level of nation that is going to matter an award like this, but their run defense was so just heinously bad last year.

42:47Robert Mays: If it's a good group this year, in part because of what he's doing, maybe that can lend to it. But that's, there are plenty of reasons why I thought he would be a fun pick. My long shot, what about Peter Woods at 40 to one?

43:00Dave Helman: I had the other chief defensive lineman. I had our Mason Thomas.

43:03Robert Mays: I really looked at, really, we're very, you think he'll play enough to do that? That's my only concern. If he's purely a DPR, maybe. if he doesn't need to play that much and i know preseason stats are bullshit but just bear with me he had eight pressures in a sack across 48 pass rushes in the in the preseason see your pick too he was my random ass i have two well i have two long shots which the other one's gonna make derrick very happy too and we can get to that in a moment 65 to 1 though if our mason thomas is purely a dpr and he has like a 20 win rate on those attempts and let's say the chiefs get back to the playoffs and they're good and he just randomly has like eight sacks the defense turning around all these young guys yeah it's the it's it's such a long shot that it's ridiculous but watching him rush the passer in the preseason got me excited enough to daydream it's a narrow path

43:56Dave Helman: but like if i'm looking at the other names in this in this list like zion young is not far from him there i just don't think he'll get the counting stats for that caleb banks who knows if he's even going to play gabe ackes is ahead of him i just don't think he can put up the counting stats like Like, if you really do want, like, a long, long shot, there is a chance that R. Mason Thomas just gets, like, insane. R. Mason Thomas just benefiting from one-on-ones because Chris Jones and Peter Woods are ruining everyone's life. That was my thought.

44:19Robert Mays: Yeah, but Peter Woods would get the one-on-ones, yeah.

44:22Dave Helman: Which, like, he could. Like, Woods is a player that I was obviously really high on coming out of the draft, and he's, again, even looking at Peter Woods, some of the players around him, it's like, Keldrick Falk and C.J. Allen have the same odds. I would much rather bet on Peter Woods than either of those players.

44:36Robert Mays: Yeah, I was at the similar players I was looking at. I do think this is a great opportunity to talk about something that we didn't have a chance to address because it happened after our AFC East preview. The Dolphins cut Tyrell Dotson to get Jacob Rodriguez into the starting lineup. I don't think the Dolphins are going to be very good, but Jacob Rodriguez might have 180 tackles this year. And if he displays half the nose. They'll all be eight yards past the line. I mean, that might be true. If enough of them look real. If enough of them look good. And also, I mean, these are college stats. I get it.

45:07but his final year in college, he had 11 TFLs, seven forced fumbles, and four picks. If he displays any sort of that nose for the football that endeared him to draft people so much, 130 tackles with three interceptions, and he's like one of the only bright spots for the Dolphins, could be very similar to Carson Schlesinger just last year. It's kind of hard for me to believe that that'll happen two years in a row, but I know Derek would be excited. Oh, yeah.

45:35Robert Mays: let's do assistant coach of the year i this was the most boring one for me because they the two guys i landed on without looking at the odds are the two favorites the two betting

45:44Dave Helman: favorites and i was like well that's not that exciting but mike mcdaniel yes yeah i mean i i

45:48Robert Mays: picked mike mcdaniel i just think he has it's new it's exciting if that group really does explode it would just be so easy so i that that was my very boring pick and the other one that i would throw out there was Vic Fangio yeah like and it's it's this is also the muddy the waters are muddied with this award specifically because so many coaches are play callers now so many head coaches are the play callers on their side of the ball now that even if you think a unit is going to take a big step forward like the Ravens defense for example well Jesse Minter calls the Ravens defense and so or the Cowboys right the Cowboys offense is really good this year okay well Brian Schottenheimer calls the Cowboys offense.

46:29Robert Mays: And so I think the list of potential guys that could even win this is smaller than it's probably ever been. And so that's why I think I just, it was easy to zero in on the two betting favorites.

46:39Dave Helman: And I also think with the Chargers one, it's very easy to see the world where the offense is really good and exciting, but like not nearly good enough to get Justin Herbert, the MVP. In which case, Mike McDaniel is like the obvious. Or the team isn't good enough.

46:52Robert Mays: Right, yeah. I mean, that's the other part of it. And that's honestly, when we talk about MVP here in a second, There are guys that I would be really excited about just in terms of their own production this year, but we know how important team success is to winning the MVP. Matthew Stafford not being on the one seed last year is an outlier historically. For the most part, that's how it works. And again, it gets to the weirdness of the Seahawks where in another season, their quarterback probably would have been the MVP, but that's just not going to happen with the type of offense that they have, Sam Darnold's individual production, all of that stuff.

47:21Robert Mays: So even if you think the Chargers can have the third best offense in the league, Like, is the defense going to be good enough for them to win 14 games and get Justin Herbert the MVP? Maybe not. But in those circumstances, Mike McDaniel can be the assistant coach of the year. I was surprised that Jim Leonard didn't have better odds. That's a good one, too. He's 35-1 on the site I'm looking at. And we laid this out in the preview. But he is calling plays for the defense. That's a really good one. Similar to what I said about Jalen Waddell, like, he's the new thing. Like, if the Bills were 20th in defensive DVOA last year, I think they were 11th the year before that.

47:55If he comes in and the Bills are a top 10 unit and it turns them into the one seed or the two seed, especially a year after they didn't even win the division for the first time in a while, it's easy to circle him and say, well, Jim Leonard got here. And that's been the difference for why the Bills look like they might finally get to the Super Bowl.

48:13Robert Mays: I have to believe in that as somebody who has the Bills in the defense draft. So I might as well have picked him.

48:17Dave Helman: Well, speaking of that, I kind of like Patrick Grant 50 to 1. Yeah. He's the guy who's like, yep, we kind of know his name, but he's not really had that moment. The Steelers defense has enough talent to make it work. But I think we felt for a couple of years now, like, okay, they've got the talent, but why aren't they a little bit better than they are? And I just think that there's a chance that he can get them there. And so 50 to one, like I really liked his odds.

48:39Robert Mays: Who was your actual choice?

48:41Dave Helman: Mike McDaniel. Okay. And then who was yours, Dave? I just went with Leonard.

48:45Robert Mays: Oh, okay. Yeah. That's great. I like that. I actually think that's a really, that's a really fun choice. The other one that to me isn't that fun, but is a longer shot than Mike McDaniel or Vic Fangio. And I think you could easily understand the path that would get you there is Chris Shula. Yeah. If the Rams defense is just, and maybe the players take away from that. And maybe that's the reason. But I also just think if they're, they're average, they're allowing 14 points a game and they're the number one defense in the league. I think the defensive coordinator of that team. I think Shula is going to be working against the amount of talent.

49:18And I would say something similar for Drew Petsing just because there's so much continuity and star power on that Detroit offense.

49:25Robert Mays: And the other guy I throw out there that's in almost the exact same situation, we don't really talk about him that much because he took over play calling halfway through last year, is Matt Burke. It's the reason Matt Burke wouldn't win. And I also think that the Texans are limited narratively just by how they play. The coaching staff is just never going to get that much credit because of what that defense looks like structurally.

49:46Dave Helman: It's that and because of the way they play, it's like a great season out of their defense will inevitably mean 17 sacks from one of their, you know what I mean? It's like, whereas with the Seahawks defense, it's like, sure, guys are going to put up numbers, but it feels a little bit more well-rounded in terms of like where the plays are happening.

50:03Robert Mays: It's not driven by the star power. It's just not. Not narratively, at least. Right. We don't think of the Seahawks defense as one of those groups, even if there are a lot of really good players in the Seahawks defense. For how much we've talked about him dating back all the way to January, you should at least mention Christian Parker. He's 14 to 1. I can't do that. I mean, I'll present it for you. I mean, Dan Quinn won this award when he turned the Cowboys defense around. Like it or not. They were like the number one defense in the league. They were a top three defense. I just don't think they have that sort of gear to them.

50:32Robert Mays: Going from, I think that sort of improvement from 32nd and DVOA to 14th is really important for the quality of the Cowboys season. I'm not sure voters are looking at that sort of turnaround and saying that's the assistant coach of the year. I think you have to be like a top three unit to do that. Counterpoint America's team. Unfortunately, that is a very real thing. Goes a long way. All right, Protector of the Year, which was obviously we did the first one last year. Joe Tooney wins that award. Who is your pick for Protector of the Year, Derek?

51:03Dave Helman: Again, I find myself buying in on this team. I think it's going to be Tristan Wirfs. I also picked Tristan Wirfs. I just think that this offensive line in general if relatively healthy is going to return to form. And he is just obviously the cornerstone of that thing. And so I think if the Bucs offense looks fun again and they can run the ball, Tristan Wirth is going to be an all pro. And I have like enough questions about some of the other guys that like, or not questions about some of the other guys, but it just, again, feels like narratively, if the Bucs find their level, it's like, oh yeah, it's because Tristan Wirth and the offensive line are incredible again.

51:32Robert Mays: We had this award for one year and he didn't play. Yeah. First month of the season. That was one of the only reasons he wasn't in that conversation last year. And so I just think you can make a really solid argument right now that Tristan Wirfs is the best offensive lineman in the league. And full season healthy with that group back healthy, it's just not hard for me to picture that conversation about Tristan Wirfs specifically. I like being the guy that focuses on narrative while y 'all focus on who's actually the best. I do love Tristan Wirfs, but Panay Sewell is switching. Yeah. And if he's great at left tackle right out of the gate, which is not fair because Tristan Wirfs did this before protector of the year.

52:07It was an award? I'm sorry, Tristan. It's not my call. But if Panay Sewell switches to left tackle and plays at an all-pro level seamlessly, and if the Lions are successful, which you might be sensing a theme that I think that's going to happen, I think this might be a no-brainer. If he's like an all-pro caliber left tackle after being in the conversation for these sorts of awards as a right tackle, just write it off already. Or the other thing, too, is Lane Johnson Lifetime Achievement Award. if he can stay healthy this year. Yeah. And that might be a diplomatic way to like get out of deciding who's better between Panay Sewell and Tristan Wirfs or whoever else.

52:46Robert Mays: They gave a lifetime achievement award to Joe Tooney last year. Yeah. Even though Joe Tooney was fantastic last year, but I still think that there's part of a, we've never had this award before. Let's toss it to the guys who've been really good for a really long time. I wouldn't be surprised if Lane had that type of season. Lane's missed nine games the last two years. If he can play 15 or more games And if he looks like Lane Johnson doing it, that wouldn't be surprising. My long shot, I had Christian Derrissaw 35-1. That's what I had, Christian Derrissaw. I believe it. That's one of those where I believe how excited they are about Christian Derrissaw.

53:18Dave Helman: I mean, the talent is undeniable. And he's been pretty close to those peaks before already.

53:23Robert Mays: If he can be healthy and he can play at the level they expect him to play at, I think 35-1 is probably too long of odds. Who was yours, Dave? I actually didn't have one. I'm just looking through it right now. I'm sorry. um the protector of the year award our odds aren't exactly uh floating around the internet protector of the year award long shot yeah don't be sad about that or sorry about that if i was gonna pick a long shot here i mean this the odds here aren't even that long but maybe quentin nelson again like you talk about lifetime achievement awards yeah like if if the colts offensive line is good again if the offense is good again and he looks like the best guard in football i think i saw recently like recently he's gunning for another major contract extension.

54:04I could see that.

54:05Robert Mays: All right, let's get to the big one. MVP, who is your 2026 NFL MVP, Derek?

54:12Dave Helman: I already feel so dumb for doing it, but I'm going to say Dak Prescott. Let's go. Listen, let's go.

54:18Robert Mays: All of my entire agenda would come into place if Dak Prescott won the MVP this year, so I'm okay with that.

54:26Dave Helman: Again, I laid this out, I think, when we did some of the best offensive stuff, But the fact that they were as productive as they were and as an offense overall as productive as they were with some of the offensive line stuff. And I know that Tyler Smith is already going to miss the early part of the season. But I just think second year in the system, Dak Prescott has had MVP type of highs before. I feel like the division is kind of theirs for the taking. Like, I think we're a little bit uncertain about what Philadelphia is going to look like. And I don't think the other two teams are really in much consideration for it.

54:54Dave Helman: I just think that there's a world where they win like 12 games and Dak throws for like close to 5000 yards. And it's like, okay. I'd obviously be okay with this.

55:01Robert Mays: Considering he's with the Cowboys in the wins pool. I just need him to get a couple of those wins against, like, real deal Super Bowl caliber competition. That's what held him back in 2023. Yeah. Cowboy fans might not want to talk about that, but, like, the marquee wins were not there. The schedule was horrendous. Yeah. It was really, really bad. And I'm okay with that choice in that moment, but I absolutely think that there's a path for Dak to win it this year. He brought me one of my favorite bets. It's not a super long shot bet. Right. If you look at the odds.

55:31Dave Helman: But he's not like first or second. No, but if you look at the odds, I would be interested in that bet. That's why I don't like picking MVP because like it's not even like long shots are pointless. He's seventh in odds right now. Yeah. Like, I mean, it's hard to identify a candidate who's not the boring favorite or such a long shot that it's not even worth talking.

55:52Robert Mays: Can I give you one? Of course. That I actually, so he was, my choice is Lamar Jackson. I just think that, I don't think it's an accident that every time they have a new offensive system, he wins MVP. I think everything we've heard coming out of Baltimore over this entire offseason, that he's energized, he's excited. I think that just happens when things are new and things aren't stale for them there. And so we talked about it. It's the same reason I think Jesse Minter could win coach of the year. If that's the number one seed in the AFC, if he has a monster statistical season, I just don't think it's that hard to picture it for somebody like Lamar Jackson.

56:25Robert Mays: I know it's a very boring pick. Like my long shot that I thought was at least worth bringing up because the odds are so long. And for exactly the things that you're talking about, what if Jared golf throws for like 4 ,800 yards and 40 touchdowns this year for Alliance team that wins 14 games. Jared golf is absolutely. I think like golf, Dak and Herbert all deserve to be mentioned in this conversation of like, you're a couple things clicking into place from having that type of season. Jared golf has to get over the narrative hump, right? The Lions' offensive success will never be attributed to him in the same way that it will be for other quarterbacks, understandably so.

57:02Robert Mays: When you have that group of skill position players, when you have the two guys I mentioned for Offensive Player of the Year and the player you mentioned for Protector of the Year on your offense, it's harder for you to consolidate the credit as a quarterback. But his numbers over the last four years, since 2022, he's thrown for 4 ,400 yards every single season. He's thrown for 30 touchdowns in all but one of those seasons. and no David Montgomery there now. Let's just say instead of 34 touchdowns, he throws 40 touchdowns and throws for the exact same amount of yardage for the number two offense in the league for a team that wins more games than we expect.

57:38Robert Mays: I just don't think it's that crazy at 35 to one. Like he has a cleaner path to me than anybody that he's hanging out down there with. Is he really 35 to one? I'm shocked that it's that low. Just for a team that we, I mean, I was looking at the odds the other day. The Lions, I think, have the fifth best odds to win the most games. I just think it's there. You can see it potentially happening.

57:59Dave Helman: He has great value. And I do think being purely a pocket passer, it does limit your skill. Like, it has to, you have to get to it a particular way. You do have to throw 40 touchdowns. Yes, 40. You're competing with guys who rush for touchdowns and stuff like that.

58:12Robert Mays: That's like the starting point that you have to throw for 40 touchdowns.

58:15Dave Helman: But he can do it. And again, the guys that he's around, Sam Darnold has shorter odds. Jalen Hurts has shorter odds. And Bo Nix has the same odds. There is no chance I would touch those before thinking about Jared Goff. I think Jared Goff is at least interesting. I don't understand.

58:31Robert Mays: The idea that his baseline is 4 ,533 touchdowns is like, that's a good baseline to start off of in a conversation like this. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me that his odds are so far off of Dak and Herbert, because I just think of them pretty similarly in terms of their preseason chances of action. I just think that he'll get far less credit than those guys will, even if the production is just as good. But, you know, Dak has the offensive or this is correct. Dak has the receivers and Herbert has the assistant coach play caller that we haven't been able to shut up about for 10 months. Like, well, I don't disagree.

59:05Dave Helman: I also I think I kind of think Justin Herbert is a bad bet to an MVP. The fact that he is fifth in odds, like and I think the offense will be good. Good enough to the point where he can like score 40 touchdowns. I just I'm like it would have to be a truly special season. Whereas like Jared Goff doing 93 % of like the 2016 Mount Ryan, I don't think it's like that crazy. What if Justin Herbert, his career high in rushing touchdowns is five. And that was all the way back when he was a rookie. What if you threw like six rushing touchdowns into the equation on top of obviously a much better statistical season than what he's done in the last couple of years?

59:45Dave Helman: I just still think it's a little I just think so many things outside of just the quarterback would have to go right for them to be like a top three offense whereas I think with almost all of the other guys here it's a little bit easier for me to see the idea that Jaden Daniels is 20 to one I think him and Jordan Love having the same odds is insane to me Jordan Love's the other bet I wanted to mention yeah that that is that was my pick yeah I think you've actually kind of swayed me on the the Jared Goff one purely on the numbers I think like Jordan Love is more likely to actually do it because i just think he's a little bit better of a player but like at those odds where jared goff's odds are almost twice as long as what jordan loves are i'm like that just seems

1:00:22Robert Mays: like crazy i also think the lions again just have a path to win an mvp level of games it's cleaner than what the packers have because of the schedule that they're going to play i win about as boring as you can possibly go if i had to actually put money down on this i would bet on josh allen i just i don't know shocker of shockers he leads the league in rushing touchdowns the last four years in addition to what he does as a passer. He's been top five in EPA per play four years running. I think the Bills are going to win double-digit football games. It's just very easy to see. The other one I throw out, again, schedule's a little lighter, and I think they have a pretty good path to a playoff spot, which we'll talk about here in a second.

1:01:02Robert Mays: This might be the Joe Burrow year. The only thing stopping me from picking and loving up Joe is just that I did it last year, And I just, I don't want to make that my recurring bit, but yeah, I mean, it's very similar to Dak. Like if, if the defense helps them out enough that they actually win more games than they lose, they get back to the playoffs. Can I just say, I really do love, and I think like I, I said, I would have voted for Drake May last year, but a nice thing about Stafford winning MVP. I hope that's a trend. Like, I hope, I hope if a worthy candidate is like the five seat in the playoffs, we could still hold out hope that that would happen.

1:01:39And, like, it's bullshit that you have to be the one or the two seed to win MVP. I don't agree with that.

1:01:43Robert Mays: Yeah, there have been some bad choices that have been made because of that in the past. And so if we can drift away from that and pick the people who actually deserve it, I'm totally fine with that. One more. One more. I'm sorry. Because he didn't get any credit when they were the Avengers. But Brock Purdy was quietly, like, top three in EPA per play and number one in success rate when he was available last year. And if he balls like that over the course of 17 games, and it is so beyond obvious that this is not the Avengers 49ers offense of years past, he could have a really nice statistical case.

1:02:19Robert Mays: They might not be the Avengers, but if Kyle Shanahan is, give me Thanos or whatever, like galactical. Yeah, Galactus. Yes, just any sort of like overwhelming force that takes away credit from Brock Purdy. I think that's part of it. Like even if the players are not there, Shanahan always will be. And right or wrong, I do think that chips away at Purdy's case in a situation like this.

1:02:40Dave Helman: Like, yeah, if I'm imagining like a 13-win miracle 49er season where the offense looks top five again, I actually think like Kyle Shanahan, coach of the year, feels a little bit more likely.

1:02:49Robert Mays: Right or wrong? Yeah. Right or wrong? I think that's something that could emerge from that. All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about our playoff picks. I am into my 40s now, but I still love getting out and playing basketball as much as I can. Pick up, rec leagues, even just shooting around by myself. Whatever I can get in, I want to get in. And I actually do love that shooting around by myself, partially because I've devised a great one-person workout that I am able to do. Over the years, I used to be flying blind with it. I'd get out there, I'd put some shots up, I'd try to move around, but I just didn't have a plan.

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1:06:33Robert Mays: Before we get to our team picks here, we've got something new for you at The Athletic this season. Pick 'em Pro Football is The Athletic's free weekly prediction game for the 2026 regular season. We'll be competing in this. You can pick against us and some of the Athletics NFL writers, as well as Austin Mock's prediction model. Everyone in the top 100 will win a free year-long subscription to The Athletic. Check it out in the Athletic app in the Pro Football Pick 'em Hub. All right, do you guys want to just list all of your division winners individually, or do you want to go division by division?

1:07:07What sounds... Individually. Yeah, individually. Okay. That feels right. Okay, let's do it. If you were talking with your friends about it, you'd be like, all right, I've got this team winning the East, this team winning the West. Let's do that.

1:07:19Robert Mays: Okay, all right. All right, Derek, you start us off. Who are your division winners in the NFC?

1:07:22Dave Helman: In the NFC.

1:07:23Robert Mays: Your playoff teams in the NFC.

1:07:25Dave Helman: Playoff team. Okay, Los Angeles Rams, duh. Winning the NFC West. In the NFC West. Yep. Okay, I'll try to do this in some sort of order. NFC South, I have the Bucs. Okay. I have in the NFC East, I do have the Dallas Cowboys. The NFC North, I did pick the Minnesota Vikings. Let's go. Wow. He believes it. There's going to be one. Let's have some fun. I don't I think the case is not that crazy. I think that there's a chance that they're the most complete team in the division. I think that there's a chance they all just eat each other and none of them really run away with it. And also they're plus 450 to win the division, which is the second shortest odds for a last place team.

1:08:02Dave Helman: The Falcons have shorter odds, but that's because everyone in the NFC South is bad. It's for the opposite reasons. And those implied odds are 18%. It's like an 18 % chance implied chance that they can win the division. That's not nothing. That's it's technically the worst, but that's not nothing. They can win. Yeah, they can absolutely do it.

1:08:18Robert Mays: We've talked about this all summer. It is the easiest situation I can remember where it isn't even hard to make an argument for every single team. It's actually very easy to make an argument for every single team.

1:08:28Dave Helman: And they are the hardest to do it. But I just I think there's the hardest to do it there. I'll get there. Did you want me to do my wildcard teams? Yeah, I have the Detroit Lions at the fifth seed, Seattle Seahawks in the sixth seed and the Green Bay Packers in the seventh seed. So I do not have the Chicago Bears. You didn't quite give up on your darlings. You just. Wait, you have them. You have the Packers in the seven seat. I have the Packers in the seven seat. Very unfair. Which is, I picked the Eagles in the wind spool and then put the Packers here. So you also did not pick the Niners to make the playoffs.

1:08:57Dave Helman: I did not pick the Niners to make the playoffs.

1:08:58Robert Mays: I also didn't pick the Niners to make the playoffs. My teams are.

1:09:01Dave Helman: I feel worse about leaving them off.

1:09:03Robert Mays: Well, it's one of those where we'll talk about it. NFC North, I have the Lions. NFC East, I have the Cowboys. NFC South, I pick the Saints. it that's one where i might as well do something fun nfc west i had the rams my wildcard teams i had seattle i had the eagles i just think the defense is so good like even if you have questions about the offense i think the defense has a chance to be so good and then i had the packers as my seventh seed no bears i there's no upside to me so no bears no niners no bears no niners no vikings no like right what about picking all the playoff teams correctly is upside what's that picking all the playoff teams correctly there's some upside to that the idea of picking the bears and then having to miss the playoffs the downside of that is not worth not picking the bears and having to make the playoffs if the bears make the playoffs i i get all the satisfaction i need from it i don't need to have picked them the defense leaves me so itchy it leaves me so itchy and with the niners it's when honestly when we did when we did the nfc west preview i it made me go back and reframe picking them in the wins pool because i think in my mind it's all the offense the offense the offense and i get that i'm really concerned about what the front looks like them not having any sort of like presence on the interior of their defensive line that i feel good about from a run defense perspective if teams are just physically manhandling them on that side of the ball this year it's just really hard to win as that sort of team and so that that area of the roster I probably hadn't been thinking enough about in some of the things I was projecting onto the Niners over the last few weeks so that's ultimately would help me back combined with all the other injury things that we're worried about and then with the Vikings it just it's yeah I mean but I literally under all my picks I the the one note I had was I easily think the Bears Niners or Vikings could sneak in easily.

1:11:00I feel bad leaving the Niners out of the playoffs, but they're in a division with two of the three best teams in the NFL. And I know they overcame that last year. I don't like the odds of doing it two years in a row. It's just a math problem.

1:11:13Robert Mays: I could just see them being, and we said this, we joked about this in the NFC West preview. They rarely have a nine and eight forgettable season. Like that just doesn't happen that often to the Niners. I think this could be the year where the Niners are just, oh, the offense is good. The defense isn't quite good enough. There are a lot of good teams in the NFL and then the NFC this year, the Niners are 9-8, miss the playoffs. I just don't think that's a crazy outcome for this team. Typically, we have to ascribe some sort of calamity to them for them to miss the postseason. I don't think you have to do that for them this year.

1:11:40They're due for just a quiet but not remarkable season. Yeah, I think that's possible. I have the LA Rams winning the NFC West, the Detroit Lions winning the NFC North, the Philadelphia Eagles winning the NFC East, just staying through to the bit, and I've got the Bucs retaking the NFC South. That just seems very logical to me, even if it is a little boring. My wild card... I couldn't do it. It just leaves me dead inside. Just to pick the 10 and 7 Bucs to win the NFC South. Sometimes there's value in just taking the boring, easy thing. Like the team that barely lost the division being healthier is probably good enough to win the division this year.

1:12:19Robert Mays: The Saints defense was better than the Bucs defense last year. Much, much, much better.

1:12:23Dave Helman: The Bucs defense will be better than the Saints defense this year.

1:12:26Robert Mays: How much more do you want to bet on that? How many bets are we going to have going?

1:12:30Dave Helman: I'll bet like 50 bucks on that.

1:12:32Robert Mays: We'll talk after this. The idea that the Saints defense per DVOA finishes a better defense than the Bucs defense this year by the end of the season, I don't think it's crazy at all.

1:12:43Dave Helman: I don't think either one is crazy. I think I'm just bought in on the Bucs. The Bucs defense doesn't need to be good as much as the Saints does, I think.

1:12:51Robert Mays: This is like one specific thing. One number next to a defense by the end of the year. I think I'd be willing to bet.

1:12:57Dave Helman: Maybe I'm a little bit too, like, putting too much into, like, Demario Davis being gone, but I just, I don't know.

1:13:03Robert Mays: We talked about it on the NFC South preview. You look at the Bucs' defensive numbers by the end of every season over the last three years, they have not been good. They've been bad, actively bad, despite the players being better this year. I will fully concede that. My wildcard teams are the Seahawks, the Cowboys. I did, I couldn't get there with winning the division, but let's have some fun. Cowboys as a playoff team. and the Minnesota Vikings, as my son would say. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. No Niners, no Packers for me. And, I mean, I've been down on the Bears from the beginning. I'm happy to be wrong about that.

1:13:33But I just don't want to sign up to need to score 31 every week to have a chance to win.

1:13:40Robert Mays: When we're picking these teams, we'll do it for the AFC in a second, there are certain teams where you have to be able to paint a picture for how the defense can be good enough to get them there. And I think for the Bears, it's harder than it is for a lot of these other teams. I'll and I'll just plainly say right now like picking the Vikings is just like I it's fun and I want some stakes behind the thing that I think is going to happen the Packers or even the Bears could easily take that place like that is obviously not weird and what you said about the

1:14:08Dave Helman: defenses I don't think the Packers defense will be good but actually since doing the wind spool I think I've gotten myself a little bit closer to like especially by the time Micah comes back they can be like fine like it can be a totally solid unit next to the seventh best offense in the nfl if the bears are only the seventh best offense in the nfl it's a lot harder for me to get there

1:14:29Robert Mays: with the defense being good enough i also just think with the packers the reason if you go back and listen to the the offenses draft if you go listen to the wins pool if this is one where when you actually try to look at it in like a sober light we're just bored of the packers yes yeah It just, we're just, we're just bored. They're just fatigue of this group. But if you look at what they've been offensively over the last few years, and again, I don't, who gives a shit, like what your EPA ranking is by the end of the season, if you're getting bounced in the wildcard round as a seven seed every year, it doesn't matter.

1:14:58Robert Mays: But in terms of consistency, the play caller and the quarterback have given them a real level of consistency on offense over the last few years that I think is just worth buying into, even if it's no longer exciting, because now it's not new anymore. Now we're like pointing them with a stick. The counterpoint, though, it's not even just that they're boring. I've said this. It might have been during the preview. I don't remember. But it's okay to want them to prove it to me for a change. I have given them so much benefit of the doubt. Like, Derek picked them to get to the Super Bowl. I was so high on the Packers.

1:15:31I've been high on the Packers since Jordan Love took over. It's not some crime to want them to do it before I just say, oh, yeah, there they go again.

1:15:40Robert Mays: it's just easier for me to put my stink on the packers and pick them to make the playoffs just reverse jinx myself into a fully i fully expect having left them out of the playoffs and been down on them for most of the year that like by thanksgiving they're just gonna look like a fire i don't think you i don't think you understand what it is like to watch the teams i care about do anything. I pick the, I have been so a few, like just strictly and vocally out on the Dallas Cowboys for so long. It's wild yet. I've been in for like two weeks and Tyler Smith is now out for six weeks because of a stupid thumb injury immediately after me picking them to be good.

1:16:21Robert Mays: That happens. And so I'm trying to do the same thing to the Packers and avoid doing that to the Bears. That's what they do. Like the minute, you know, you tell your dog like, Oh my God, You haven't had any accidents in the house in three weeks. You're such a good boy. And the minute you say that, they pee on the rug. I can't do it. I can't do it to the Bears. That's why I'm willing to do it to the Packers. Let's get to the AFC. This is a disaster.

1:16:47Robert Mays: I'm not even worth doing. I want to just list 12 teams and just say, anything could happen, and then we end the show. But that's not what we're going to do. Dave, your AFC playoff picks are what? What? Again, you can parse this out based on my picks for award winners, but I have the Buffalo Bills retaking the AFC East and having a very successful season. I have the Baltimore Ravens winning the AFC North after coming very close last year. I have the Houston Texans winning the AFC South. I have the Denver Broncos winning the AFC West. My wild cards are the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

1:17:30So no chiefs, no chiefs. Okay. And no chargers. I, the chargers chance they cannibalize themselves. The chargers have been my biggest fly in the ointment for this entire time because there's 18 reasons worth being excited and having lofty expectations. And I just, I don't want to, I just don't, I I'm sorry. I don't want to stake my personal happiness and reputation on that stuff coming through.

1:18:00Dave Helman: This is hard. I did have all the same division winners. So Bills in the East, Texans in the South, Broncos in the West. That one I feel not as good as I want to about that, honestly. And then Ravens in the North. You picked the Broncos? Yeah, I did. Let's go. I don't like coming around. it's it's it's it's to a point where like the roster is just for the most part so good that i'm like even if they regress a little bit they'll probably still be really good i do have the kansas city chiefs as a fifth seed getting into the playoffs the new england patriots

1:18:36Dave Helman: you know you want to do it yeah i'll just say the jacksonville jaguars you know you want to just do it i did not have them written down and i'm like i think in my heart of hearts who is it Between? The Chargers.

1:18:46Robert Mays: Okay.

1:18:46Dave Helman: And maybe that's just because I picked them in the windspool over the Jaggers. Like, I don't know if it's me fighting a little bit the investment I have in the Jaguars. I don't know what it is, but they are a more complete team, I think, than the Chargers, probably.

1:18:59Robert Mays: I had the Ravens in the north, the Texans in the south, the Bills in the east. In the west, flip a coin. Like, I picked the Chargers. Oh, okay. But I don't feel good about that. Yeah. How could you? I don't feel good about that. Honestly, it's just something different. Their offense being really good and really exciting and them being the team that comes out of that division, I think that's just the version of the season I would enjoy the most just because it would feel a little bit new and we could have a different conversation about Justin Herbert. And I think that that version of the offense is something that I'm just excited about.

1:19:33Robert Mays: So maybe that was it. My wildcard teams, I had the Bengals. I just think the schedule is really friendly to the Bengals just to get in. the other two i just want to be as clear as i possibly can about this i had four teams for these two spots i truly think that they're interchangeable and who i would pick and who i wouldn't like i did i do not feel strong about any of these but you did pick someone i picked the jags and the chiefs which means the broncos and the patriots don't make the playoffs in this scenario you know what even as somebody i'm as bought in on the broncos and patriots as it gets but it's so easy to make the regression case and year over year we know this type of shit happens So even if I don't agree to deny the logic of it is just silly.

1:20:16Robert Mays: I just all over the place. I think I just feel the best about the, I don't even know what it is. Like I just, I think the defense is a chance to be better in Kansas city. I'm betting on the quarterback, the chiefs, even if they missed the playoffs last year, they were horrendously bad in one score games. That's going to come back to earth a little bit. See that went to the Superbowl three times in four years and three of the last four seasons. I still think that even if we have questions about them, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt to an extent. I think the Broncos' defense just feels more fragile to me than it's felt in the last couple years.

1:20:48Robert Mays: They did take a step back in the back half of last year. The defensive line isn't as deep as it's been. And it's not that John Franklin Myers is the thing that's going to change this, but I just feel a little bit less belief in that group overall. They feel a little bit less sturdy to me. And I've talked about the Patriots all offseason. The defense worries me. the lack of talent on the defensive line at an edge specifically just how thin they are defensively that that worries me and so I truly between those four teams I think we talked about the top there are nine teams with minus odds in the AFC to make the playoffs you could pick any combination of those nine teams and I would be completely fine with it I it's not even that I don't really believe in the Broncos or Patriots just that you have to make some really hard choices with this

1:21:29Dave Helman: group this year you do and I this is an interesting one again I think I'm obviously I put the I put both of them in and I'm I think I'm actually like weirdly more bullish on the Patriots still being good than the than the Broncos like I think it's actually easier for me to see the case for the Broncos just don't it just doesn't break as right for them as it did last year I am curious though and I'm like trying to figure this out and look this up on the fly when is the last time that both AFC championship teams did not make the playoffs the following year so much of that has been the Chiefs right I mean so much of it is a bit right and the AFC that probably yeah yeah the

1:22:02Robert Mays: The Patriots and Chiefs probably make that impossible in the AFC.

1:22:05Dave Helman: Well, and there's always been elite quarterbacks in the AFC, so it probably has been like, well, yeah, Tom Brady always gets back, and Peyton Manning always gets back, and Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers always went back. And so I don't know what the last time it would be, but I would guess it's been a very long time since two teams in the conference championship game did not make it back at all.

1:22:26Robert Mays: Did the Niners make the playoffs in 2025? Yes, yes, sorry, sorry.

1:22:30Dave Helman: In 2024? Wait, in 2024, the Commanders—

1:22:33Robert Mays: No, in 2024, they fell apart. But then the Lions did, though. The Lions did make the playoffs. The Lions were really good that year.

1:22:38Dave Helman: Yeah, NFC 24, it was the Eagles and the Commanders in the NFC Championship. Did the Eagles make the playoffs last year? Yeah, of course. They lost the Niners. Oh, that's right. They got blasted by the Niners. Never mind. So it's probably been a long time since that happened.

1:22:49Robert Mays: It's probably been a long time since that happened.

1:22:52Dave Helman: But last year was such a weird year that it's like, if you're going to bet on that happening the following year and things coming back to normal, it would be it would be that way so I something weird is going to happen in the AFC playoffs

1:23:04Robert Mays: this year like something weird is going to happen and it's so unsettling to sit here and make peace with your choices like I I said I believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars more than the Kansas City Chiefs just now and I don't I feel like I'm having second thoughts this part to me was a little bit freeing just because it's like whatever like they're all the same it's not Somebody's going to be mad at me no matter what I choose. Is there a team that none of us mentioned? Absolutely the Pittsburgh Steelers. I mean, the Steelers and the Colts both really probably deserve a mention. I just feel less good about them than I do about the other teams.

1:23:38Of course. Well, we didn't pick them. Yeah, it's not. In the interest of trying to foresee all outcomes, like those are two teams that I have to acknowledge could at least pull it off.

1:23:47Dave Helman: They're at least in the category of like if they get there, like things will have to break right, but I'm not going to be like, whoa, how did the Steelers make the playoffs? It'll be like, okay, you know, a couple things went right. Maybe the Bengals or Ravens just weren't as good as we thought. Something like that I think is on the table, whereas, like, everyone after that, it's like the Titans would need a miracle from God to make the playoffs.

1:24:05Robert Mays: I just think that looking at the odds and seeing that there were nine teams with minus odds was so comforting to me. Because I was like, these are the nine teams that I believe in, and I believe in them mostly the same outside of, like, maybe the Ravens and the Bills being the cleanest choices to win their divisions. Even the Texans, it's like the Jags won it last year. They easily could win that division again. And then the AFC West, whatever. Any of those three teams could win it. And so that's just where I landed. All right. Dave, your final four is what? I have an AFC Championship game rematch.

1:24:38I mean, they didn't play in the AFC Championship game last year, but a rematch of Bill's Broncos in the AFC title game. And in the NFC, I have the LA Rams playing. Matthew Stafford's old friends, the Detroit Lions.

1:24:56Robert Mays: I have the Rams and the Seahawks in the NFC. I have the Ravens and the Bills in the AFC. It's boring, but I think those are the four best teams.

1:25:03Dave Helman: Yeah, I mean, I think the spiciest I have is I do think the Cowboys can get to the NFC Championship game, so I have Rams and Cowboys and then Ravens-Texans on the other side.

1:25:11Robert Mays: I need the Cowboys to win 14 games in the regular season. I don't give a shit what happens after that. That truly doesn't matter.

1:25:16Dave Helman: They can lose immediately in the Divisional to whoever.

1:25:19Robert Mays: I doesn't that putting the Cowboys at the table is one of the one thing that we did. And I picked them in the windspool. If they win 14 games in the regular season, that's justification for putting them at the table. And it's enough for me to feel very good about the windspool. We want to have the same discussion about them losing the playoffs again when we get there. It makes no material difference to my life. That is it's a valid point. My hesitation with the Cowboys in the windspool playoff failure shouldn't really factor into that. You know, like that's not what we're playing for, but it looms too large in my mind.

1:25:48All right.

1:25:49Robert Mays: Your Super Bowl winner is who, Derek?

1:25:51Dave Helman: I just picked the Los Angeles Rams. I have them beating the Ravens, but I just, I think it's really hard to, like, there's obviously, again, them being the best team in the league only means like a 10 % chance they win the Super Bowl or whatever, but it's the easiest case to make, I think.

1:26:05Robert Mays: I also have the Rams over the Ravens. You know, this is the way I looked at it. It's the same thing as some of these awards. you don't need me to be the 27th member of the media to pick the Rams to win the Super Bowl. And obviously, I think that has a high likelihood of happening. I don't. I don't think it has a high likelihood of happening. High likelihood relative to everybody else. Yes. So I went with a Super Bowl matchup of Broncos-Lions. Because why the hell not? Something weird is going to happen. Why just go with chalk for no other reason? And so do you have winning? do not say Bo Nix Super Bowl champion.

1:26:45I went with the Lions to win the Super Bowl.

1:26:49Robert Mays: That would be amazing. I just, there are elements of the roster that worry me. Of course there are. But I think the offense can be phenomenal. It's a weird spot to be where, like, again, there's like four teams you can pick to win the Super Bowl where you're not worried about elements of their roster. But then there we were at Levi's Stadium last year watching the Seahawks play the Patriots. who the hell saw that coming so do i feel good about this not really but i'm just i'm making a bet that some weird shit's gonna go down otherwise what are we doing here like if it's rams bills then why do we make content for nine months like you could have figured that out by yourself so we'll see but that's my off the wall pick i'm glad we're done making content before the game start that's what i will say right now i'm very excited for there to be actual nfl football to talk about tonight can i rewind a second give you guys an answer to the last time yes championship teams uh if i'm doing this correctly it was the 15-16 nfc championship game between the cardinals and panthers and then neither of them made the playoffs there you go so it's been 10 years parson palmer was cooked and then yeah year did not go as well for camden it would be yeah i'd be surprised if neither made the playoffs at all but like one of them slipping out i'm talking about the Broncos and the Pats.

1:28:06Like if one of them slipping out, of course, but both, I would be pretty surprised.

1:28:11Robert Mays: It could go a lot of different ways in the AFC. I'm just going to say that one more time before we get out of here. All right, that is all we've got for today. We will be back tonight live on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel. Just a quick heads up. I mentioned this in the intro, but if you guys skipped the intro, our schedule for the week or for the year, the same as it was last year, the only difference is going to be Monday and Thursday recaps every week are going to be in your podcast feed. So those will be available as audio podcasts, wherever you get this podcast. And so we'll get an extra one this week because we have a Wednesday night game, obviously that we will be recapping.

1:28:49Robert Mays: So that will be live on YouTube. If you want to come hang out with us after the game tomorrow or tonight, but if not, it will be available in your feed tomorrow morning on Thursday for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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