Quarterbacks at a crossroads in 2026

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2:19I'm Robert Mays. Today, we're talking about some quarterbacks at a crossroads entering the 2026 season. We did this episode last summer, chatted about guys like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray. That ended up being real. Those guys were a crossroads in their careers. So we've picked six players to talk about today. We'll dig into those with me, Dave, and Derek. Quick bit of housekeeping, live show. September 1st, Lincoln Hall in Chicago. A few tickets still available. If you have not gotten yours, now is the time to do it. Doing the wins pool. During that show, we will have some Q &A and a little meet and greet after.

2:54So we'd love if you guys would stop by. Kicking off the division previews tomorrow. Big week at the athletic football show. Big couple weeks. Let's get into the quarterbacks at a crossroads in 2026. right now.

3:17Our last show before the division previews kick off starting tomorrow. It's a episode we did last year that I really enjoyed. And it's one that we wanted to revisit this year, Derek. We're going to talk about some quarterbacks at a crossroads today.

3:34Robert Mays: guys that have reached a fork in the road in their career and what happens this year could send them down either one of those paths i'm very much looking forward to this is the show i've had

3:45Dave Helman: circled for a while here i mean this is one that i think the last couple of years that we've done it has been one of our best shows because i feel like it's so it it often does come to be like they really do hit like a fork in the road when we get to their next season like i think we did trevor on one of these and then by the end of last year it was like i guess trevor's just pretty good and Like, it seems like we've solved that. So I think that this always is like a good show for that.

4:07Robert Mays: The two that I remember, the two that were like the onus for doing the episode last year were Trevor and Kyler Murray.

4:14Dave Helman: Yeah. Yeah. And Kyler would be on here again if we didn't put him on the most at stake show, which like that's the funny thing. Now he's in a different bucket because of how last year went for him when he was at this crossroad.

4:25Derrik Klassen: He took he took a fork in the road last year and immediately came to another fork. It's just getting more confusing for Kyler Murray. we talked about Kyler at the Most at Stakes show. We talked about Baker on the Most at Stakes show. So if you guys want to hear the conversation about those guys

4:41Robert Mays: kind of under this umbrella, we've already done that. The other guy that I would throw out here as a potential option that we're not going to talk about today simply because we've spent so much time talking about him in kind of this way, Caleb Williams, I think, is at a crossroads this year. Like, that situation in Chicago is very good. And so I think improvement from Caleb Williams is necessary. might be strong, but something to watch because I do think that how this year goes is going to go a long way in kind of pointing toward what the next few years of his career ultimately going to look like.

5:13Robert Mays: We ended up settling on six guys that we have not talked about in this way that we wanted to dig into today. But before we do that, a little bit of quarterback news that we wanted to hit. Deshaun Watson announced as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns today per Adam Schefter. Dave, I'll cede this to you first. Your initial reaction upon seeing that the Browns are going to go with Deshaun Watson to at least start the season. My initial reaction is, well, of course.

5:43Derrik Klassen: And it's funny how you can lose sight of that during the breathless updates during training camp. And Cleveland has become famous for charting their different quarterbacks pass attempts during practice. But if you if you zoom out 30 ,000 feet and keep this whole thing in mind, of course, dude, the report started trickling out in December when Deshaun Watson's practice window got activated, that he was so impressive and he looks so good coming off of the Achilles surgery. And maybe he's a viable candidate for 2026. That was before Todd Monken even took the job. You started hearing rumors that Deshaun Watson was going to be in the mix.

6:24Derrik Klassen: And you think about the contract. You think about the ramifications if he's not starting for the Cleveland Browns. And like I said, it's easy when you get into training camp to watch him play and look bad during the preseason and lose sight of all of that context. And it's cynical and it's kind of bleak to just come back to the big picture. But as disappointing as it is that this is where the Cleveland Browns are and these are the sorts of decisions they continue to make. You can't say it's overly surprising when they've been laying the groundwork to do this for nine months. It's just you were kind of willing yourself to believe in a different course of action.

7:04Derrik Klassen: But it kind of feels like this was always going to be the logical conclusion.

7:08Dave Helman: I think where I land on this is like this is one of the most embarrassing moments, I think, in like the history of the sport, followed only by the other times. that they tried to start him back in 2023 when he obviously this is after all of the allegations and things came out and then he played horribly he was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL has had multiple injuries since then and then like you said Dave they kind of went into this year like sure they have Schrader Sanders on the roster and they drafted Dylan Gabriel last year but it kind of felt like the competition this year was a little bit of a song and dance and that he was ultimately going to get the job and I posted this on Blue Sky there have been a lot of bad week one NFL starters, like guys who are just not necessarily cut out to be good at the job.

7:49Dave Helman: This is the first time that I can remember where naming the starter felt like it was done out of contempt for the fan base. Like it's crazy, just like who he is and how poorly he's played and what he's done over his three years there. It's just like, it kind of blows my mind that they either didn't bring in any other competition or weren't just willing to, you know, run out the string with Shredder Sanders or whatever else it was going to be. I think the fan base is also where my mind goes let's rewind just a little bit because

8:16Robert Mays: I do think that you're not wrong Dave there are obviously bigger things at play here just in the sense that like it's not a competition with a quarterback who's making whatever Deshaun Watson is making every single year doesn't normally exist you know I mean that's just the level of complexity and beyond what we typically consider here but I do think that I don't know if there's anything conspiratorial as to why we arrived here. I do think that this is Todd Monken looking at his best chance to win football games early in the season as a 62-year-old, 63-year-old head coach and making this choice.

8:52Whether that's the right choice for the fan base is an entirely different conversation or even the right choice for the organization. There is no potential upside waiting for you here. We know what he is at this stage. And even if you think, all right, he can handle some of the operational stuff with a little bit more proficiency than a second year

9:09Robert Mays: quarterback. And that's why we want him to play. That to me just isn't a good enough reason when you have to sell this to the fan base beyond the last four years and what that has looked like and how much of a slap in the face it's been to the fans, period. Coming off the press conference on Saturday, that to me feels disqualifying. Like at a certain point, you are actively antagonizing the people who are paying to go see the football team, even if you think this is your best chance to put the best possible product in the field, which, by the way, I don't even believe. I don't even believe that.

9:43When I was there, my understanding is that the preseason games were going to help to dictate how this was going to go because what he looks like in live action is going to be different when there's a real pass rush. He looked terrible. That's how he looked. So even if, well, he's practiced better and he had a good practice against the Bills, Well, those games either mattered or they didn't. And so by all, the way that this is played out, it seems like they didn't. And so I just, I can't imagine being a fan of this team and having this be the end point because it is so demoralizing. Even if you're choosing between two bad options and Shadour probably isn't ready to be the

10:23Robert Mays: quarterback of a functional NFL offense consistently the same way he wasn't last year. I just can't imagine a bigger slap in the face than going this direction. if you're somebody who has to root for this team for football reasons beyond all of the other ones. And so the idea that you're going to crack open your week one game as a Browns fan and have to watch this in a moment where there should be more excitement than at any other point in the season, man, just, I truly can't imagine what that has to feel like if you care about this team at all.

10:54Derrik Klassen: The other thing I would say too, the other cynical thought that I came back to is if you removed all of the unsavory elements of the deshaun watson saga he hasn't been a good player he's like to your point he was he was in half a decade it's been a long time so to and and let's let's be let's be blunt and honest like if he was good there would be plenty of people either willing to look the other way on the allegations or pretend they don't exist or outright say they They don't care about it. People are willing to do that in the name of sports success. It's not ideal. It's just a fact of human nature.

11:36Derrik Klassen: So to sit there and act like it's personal that the fans are booing you and it has nothing to do with your ability as a football player, it's just not true. You have been an abject disaster purely as a player. And then that is in addition to all of the other elements that make this whole thing a bummer to talk about. And yeah, in addition to having no confidence that he can do anything for your football team, you add that element on top of it. yeah I don't envy Cleveland Browns fans and you know getting getting poked on the way out on Saturday by Deshaun Watson is like adding insult to injury and then on top of that him apologizing after being named the starter on Monday morning is like the first time he's ever even attempted to take accountability for anything in this entire saga and at this point it doesn't count at this point it doesn't count I give this a month

12:35Dave Helman: yeah I give this a month that's the other thing neither quarterback here was starting 17 games probably and so I just feel like not that I really give a shit about like how much the Browns are saving themselves PR wise but if you at least start Schroeder Sanders it falls apart he falls away I think people would have just like been whatever if Deshaun comes in by week nine there's something about going in and naming him the week one starter that is just like you just didn't have to do that and I think it's just like a final embarrassing note on this entire saga they just can't cut him right I mean that's the reality of the situation is they just

13:09Robert Mays: can't cut him they cannot financially move on from him this season this is always going to be weird and messy because of that he'll be gone next offseason they'll be starting over a quarterback likely drafting a guy somewhere in the top 10 the goal at this point has to be can we hang on through this season with the young pass catchers and just capture some any level of excitement and optimism to get us to next spring when we will have a different answer to this. But at a certain point, you're just trudging through like a river of shit to get there if you were a fan of this team. And that's how it's been for years.

13:46Derrik Klassen: And it's not as like, exactly. Cleveland Browns fans have a lot of experience trying to get excited about a team that doesn't have a good quarterback. And there are a dozen ways you could find enthusiasm for the Shadur Sanders era, even if he doesn't wind up being any good. But there, I mean, there's nothing there. There's nothing redeeming or fun about starting the season off this way. And it doesn't have to be that way. And like I said, cynically, it's not surprising, but it's still disappointing.

14:18Robert Mays: All right, let's get to our first quarterback here. And let's start with another little bit of news that came out right before we started recording. We wanted to talk about CJ Stroud as a guy who we think is at a crossroads heading into this season. CJ Stroud has a new receiver as of about 2 p.m. Central time on Monday, August 24th. Kayshaun Booty heading to the Texans for what sounds like a seventh round pick for Tom Pelissero that I think belonged to the Saints at one point. It's funny. We were just talking about this last week, about how the receiving core would shake out without Jaden Higgins.

14:50Robert Mays: and Derek, we're trying to figure out who would be able to credibly be like a perimeter vertical receiver on this team in order to move Nico Collins around to do the things you were going to place on Jaden Higgins's plate. There wasn't a clear answer among the group. Well, now Keishon Booty is exactly that type of player. Like you can just stick him outside the numbers. And I think now you have to move Nico Collins around in order to get the best version of the offense. And so this does make sense to me. Like, it's not ideal. Jaden Higgins, I think was in line for a really nice second season, but I completely understand the Texans thought process and why they landed on doing this.

15:25Dave Helman: I mean, this was as good as it was going to get for them in terms of who they could acquire at this stage in the calendar, right? And I think he actually like can solve either problem for them. I think if they want to do what you're saying, where it's like, let's actually move around our best player, Nico Collins, put him in the slot more, maybe put him off the ball, do all this sort of stuff with him and just have Booty be our clear out X vertical player. That's what Keyshawn Booty does best like even when he was you know a rookie and that was he was even a more limited player than he is now that was all of his best stuff I also do think that even though Higgins is bigger and and probably a little bit better like going up and getting the football I do think booty can be a little bit like you put him in the slot he's a guy who can slash across the middle and do some of that stuff so like I'm gonna be curious over the first month of him being in the offense like which of those two roles do they actually think suits him better or obviously suits Nico Collins better because that's who you really want the passing offense to be about.

16:16Derrik Klassen: Sometimes this stuff is really simple. Like you don't have to be an expert to look at New England's receiver depth chart and say, ah, not a whole lot of opportunity for Keyshawn Booty there. I wonder if somebody might want him. And then the Texans, unfortunately, have a big injury. I think anybody paying half attention to the league the last three weeks was like, this feels like it makes sense. And lo and behold, the GMs of the teams agree with us. Let's get into the strad part of this conversation.

16:42Robert Mays: Dave, why in your mind is an exercise like this worth starting off with CJ Stroud as we headed to 2026?

16:50Derrik Klassen: You know what's funny? I don't know if I'm the guy to ask because and I wanted to say this at the top. I wasn't on this show last year and I'm excited to do this with y 'all because I tend to look at things in different ways sometimes from the two of you. I really value doing this exercise because it illuminated some things for me about various quarterbacks. CJ Stroud being chief among them, because I would posit to you, I don't really think CJ Stroud is at a crossroads. I think CJ Stroud is in a perfectly good spot. I can't tell you when the contract is coming or what the money is going to look like, but I think CJ Stroud is going to be in Houston for a while, one way or the other.

17:33Derrik Klassen: And that's that that was my overarching conclusion where I don't think he's I don't think there's that much of a fork in front of him. So here's what I'll say.

17:42Robert Mays: This conversation and this exercise is not necessarily about drastic changes when it comes to where a player is going to be. Or like Trevor Lawrence had already been paid, you know, when we were having the Trevor Lawrence conversation. I think this is just more about what type of career, what type of player these guys end up becoming wherever they wind up. And I think that's kind of where I land with C.J. Stroud, where I think with C.J. Stroud, the idea that he's regressed since his rookie year to me isn't really correct or fair. Like, I don't think that he's a markedly worse player than he was as a rookie.

18:20If you look at the numbers from last year, they are not worse than he was as a rookie. And I still think those circumstances in Houston weren't great.

18:27Robert Mays: He has not taken the step forward that I think we've wanted to see, that dramatic step forward. He has not improved in a demonstrable way from where we saw him as a rookie. You can argue that maybe some nuanced things and some small things have happened. I think that, to me, is where the crossroads part of this comes in. Even if we think he's going to be a Houston Texan, I still think year two of a system where they went out, tried to remake the offensive line, I think that it's where this season goes for CJ Stroud is going to change the way we probably think about CJ Stroud one way or the other, even if he's probably set up to be the Texans quarterback.

19:09And even that I would have an ounce of doubt about what that contract ends up looking like and when it comes. Because if he has a gangbuster season and he gets paid after this, that's one choice rather than we're going to play it out. Maybe we tag you because we're just not convinced yet. I think that's more realistic than you probably do right now.

19:29Derrik Klassen: I'm not going to back down off of this take. And some of this is projection, by the way. And I'll just say off the jump, I have a tremendous amount of confidence that CJ Stroud is going to be just fine. I can't help but think back to this time last year when Derek and I were saying, this is the offensive line. This is what we're going to do. This is what we're doing in year three of CJ Stroud. And lo and behold, it wasn't enough to keep them out of the playoffs. But the concerns were there heading into last year. Like, you should not have been surprised that the Texans offensive ecosystem was pretty bad heading into last season, in my opinion.

20:07Derrik Klassen: And to your point, Robert, I went back and looked at the numbers, and I think they're very illuminating. The Texans offense finished 19th in the league in EPA per play improves to 18th, by the way, if you don't account for the month that CJ wasn't in the lineup. More importantly, they were 14th in EPA per dropback. And if you again account for the full month of the season that CJ Stroud was unavailable, they were 11th in the NFL in EPA per dropback. This was a perfectly good passing offense with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. And you say, well, why wasn't it better then? They were 27th overall in success rate, probably because they were bottom three in EPA per carry and rushing success rate.

20:56Derrik Klassen: They had the eighth highest stuff rate in the NFL and the third lowest explosive run rate in the league. C.J. Stroud was doing a pretty good job quarterbacking a completely one dimensional and messy offense. And one way or the other with an improved ecosystem, I think he's going to be just fine. I think he's going to be justified in asking for a contract extension. And if the Texans do want to tag him, that still puts him under club control for a minimum of two years before he could ultimately get this contract extension. And when I was thinking about it, in some ways, it reminded me a lot of Dak Prescott, where at the age of 33, having made all the money in the world, we forget about how hard he had to fight for his first deal.

21:40Derrik Klassen: But he did. And I feel I feel the same way about CJ Stroud, where I'm like, it might be kind of messy, but I think you're going to be the Texans quarterback for a long time. And I think you're good. And I think you're going to play well. And that some of that is projection, but I feel pretty good about it.

21:56Dave Helman: I feel like I land on both sides here. I think if I'm just taking a guess and like giving my take on the player, I think that he is good enough to be a guy that you pay. He will be good long-term, he will develop. But I do think that he's in a unique position right now in a couple of ways. One, it feels pretty atypical for a guy like him to not be paid immediately when eligible, given what some of his highs have been. Like given what his rookie year was, some of the playoff games that he's won. I know they lost, but like in 24, he played really, really well against the Chiefs in that playoff game.

22:28Dave Helman: Like the highs that he's had, usually that player, like as soon as they're eligible, it's go time. And so the fact that he hasn't, I do think, does put him in a little bit of a unique position. Think about the rookie year.

22:39Robert Mays: Think about after the rookie year, the idea that after his third season, we would just not be rubber stamping whatever the next highest paid contract is. Like there's a difference between we're paying you because we don't have a better option and we're excited to do it. And I think that to me is the crossroads.

22:54Dave Helman: I agree. It feels like it, and it goes back to what you said too, like CJ Stroud is at worst an average NFL QB. I think he's better than that. But I think after his rookie season, the idea was that, okay, if this is the starting point, he can become something like Matt Ryan or Dak Prescott or something in that level where he's a perennial top eight quarterback. He has some of these highs that he's throwing 35 touchdowns in a year, whatever it's going to be. I just don't know if we've seen that much development from him. And again, I think that there's reasons for that. I think some of that is probably on his own.

23:28Dave Helman: Some of that is that the offensive line has been terrible. And I do think that there's like a cumulative effect of the offensive line being as bad as it is. And so I think all of that is true. And I also think why he becomes kind of a hot button player to talk about and should he be paid, should he not, is that it's not that like his numbers overall are lower. Like Trevor Lawrence was not a particularly productive quarterback overall until, you know, by the time he got paid. and CJ Stroud I think has been more productive than that but the problem with CJ Stroud is he's had blow up games and I think that people just remember that and you are a little bit worried that like is he going to keep doing that and again I think a lot of that comes down to just the offensive line being as bad as it is but I think that's something that sticks with people and I think the last thing that I would say that really puts like a magnifying glass on him this roster is ready to win the Super Bowl for the most part again the offensive line has its issues and it's not a perfect offense but like that defense is special and last year if he just played normal bad they might be in the super bowl but he was like all-time blow-up could not get himself together and again i've said i don't think that that's like a trait that he's going to carry for the next 10 years necessarily but it's objectively true that he kind of botched those games for a team that was ready to do it all so he's just in a weird position and so i ultimately think you pay him and he will get paid and that he's going to be a top 12-ish quarterback for a long time.

24:48Dave Helman: But I do think that there was a world where I was pretty ready to say he will be top seven at some point. I'm a little bit more like you got to prove that part of it to me again. I think that's where I'd land as well. Because Dave, I've said a lot of the same numbers you

25:02Robert Mays: just spat out about the drop back success rate or the drop back EPA when he was on the field. Like it was good. And I also am of the opinion that there is a better version of him winning on the other side, but I think Derek laid it out well. Those games are real. Those games at the end are real. Those are the most important games. And so I do think that there is a chance we see the best version of him, but I also think that his game, I think year two in this offense will be really telling, I think is what I'll say. I think that there are elements of who he is as a player that are non-negotiable.

25:39Robert Mays: Like his talent as a thrower, His feel for coverage is very good for a player. He understands where guys are. He doesn't throw a lot of interceptions, which makes the playoffs very funny. But I think his awareness and spatial awareness is very good. I think there are details and things about the offense that need to be better as we head into year two of it. I think there are elements that just need to be a little bit more buttoned up than they probably were a year ago. And I do anticipate him doing that. Like, I think that with better offensive line play, with a better running game, and in year two of the offense, there is a chance that we see the best version of him we've ever seen.

26:15And that includes the rookie year. But that's where the crossroads comes in. Like, if that happens, we talk about him in such a different way than we are right now based on how the end of last season ended. And I think we talk about the Texans in a slightly different way.

26:28Robert Mays: And so I'm very open to what you're saying, Dave, in the sense that like that everything will come together in a way that it has not right now. And it will reframe the discussion about him from where it is right now. But I think that's the reason we're having the discussion, because that has to happen, I think, for a lot of people to snap back into being believers in the trajectory of which direction he's headed. Because at the very best, it has mostly been flat since we saw him do what he did as a rookie.

26:58Derrik Klassen: It's a valid conversation, and it's a great point. I don't mean to gloss over the playoffs, but we just have such a larger sample size of regular season games than playoffs. But that Texans team could absolutely have reached the Super Bowl and maybe won it if C.J. Stroud just hadn't lost his mind for two weekends, and that's worth bringing up. But I balk at the idea, and it's not to absolve him completely, but I balk at the idea that going into the season, we were like, this isn't good enough. What are you doing? You have this promising young quarterback entering year three, and this is what you've done to put him in a good place.

27:38Derrik Klassen: And it was obvious in August of last year, and the Texans defense was good enough that it didn't bite them in the ass until it really mattered. But I can't sit here and put that all on CJ Stroud when I felt like it was very obvious before the season even started last year that they were setting him up to disappoint. And so I'm willing to give him some leeway. If this year doesn't look markedly better, I'll eat my words and I'll have no problem doing it. But I think it's a little knee jerk to pile on CJ Stroud for problems that were easy to see coming before the season even started. And in spite of that, in the big picture, he was still a pretty good player.

28:19Derrik Klassen: And so I just have no problem believing that last year was more of an aberration than anything. And the end of last year. Yeah. Well, the end. Yeah. Oh, just in totality, but we'll see. I have no problem admitting I'm wrong. If this goes belly up. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about CJ

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32:08Robert Mays: Bryce Young, in a very similar situation to CJ Stroud. Fifth-year option picked up. He will be on the Panthers roster at the very least in 2027, but how excited they are about giving him an extension, how realistic that extension is, is an entirely different discussion. Dave, I'm going to see this one to you first as well because I think you are more equipped or prepared to give the pro-Brice Young stance about how this could work out than our buddy over there is. The funny thing is my big talking point with Bryce

32:41Derrik Klassen: has always just been what's the downside. I know I agitated some people earlier in the year, back in the spring when they picked up his option, saying that makes perfect sense to me. The option for next year for Stroud and for Bryce Young is just shy of$26 million. It comes out to like, we don't have the 27 cap figure finalized, but if it jumps the way we think it's going to jump, Bryce Young will be counting for something like seven or 8 % of the upcoming salary cap. It just doesn't matter to me. So securing him for 2027, I think it makes all the sense in the world. If Bryce Young is making quarterback 20 money to make sure that you have a guy on your roster.

33:23My question is, how good would it need to look to not address the position in another way in 2027?

33:32Derrik Klassen: Because that's that's the difference.

33:34Robert Mays: This is not about like whether he gets paid or not. It's like how realistic is bringing in competition for him after this year based on the way it goes. I'm not having that conversation about CJ Stroud. I'm having that conversation about Bryce Young.

33:45Derrik Klassen: Even as the Bryce guy on this show, I mean, you can't argue with the numbers, which is that Bryce has been a bottom five or six quarterback, depending on the metric that you want to use really across his entire career. And even last year on the way to the playoffs, he was 28th out of 33 qualified passers in EPA per drop back, 26th in success rate. I mean, like the, I'm using scare quotes here. The good version of Bryce has not been remotely what you want from a starting quarterback. And I don't know. That's what I'm curious about. Like, could Bryce Young improve up closer to middle of the pack?

34:26And if he can do that, is that enough to be satisfied?

34:30Derrik Klassen: I don't know. I really don't know the answer. And it is ultimately a great crossroads question because heading into this season right now, even as a Bryce defender, I don't think I believe that the Panthers are just going to roll with him in 2027. Like they will do something else at quarterback barring a jump that we just can't even fathom yet.

34:53Dave Helman: I think where I land on it, you bring up the middle of the pack, I think is a good way to frame it. I think it's possible that he gets up towards playing exactly like quarterback 20 and he really is like middle of the pack that just feels like the ceiling whereas the guy like when we were like you know hemming and hawing over like Trevor Lawrence or even Kyler Murray recently like their floor is kind of like like quarterback 20 and so I think it's just a matter of like is this guy actually elite and can he win us playoff games I think when the ceiling is what it is for Bryce Young to me obviously them bringing uh tagging him with the option is not necessarily like a long-term commitment, but he's just not a quarterback that I can really envision a long-term commitment for.

35:33Dave Helman: I think that he's been good enough that there will, he might get a, you know, a deal where he gets to come in and compete somewhere else for a starting job. Like, I don't think he's any worse than like Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew or any of these other guys who have been in that realm. I just have a really hard time, given the talent, given the size, envisioning a world where he does play any much higher than quarterback 20 pretty consistently, unless the team is just like absolutely loaded like to me I think he feels a little bit like Andy Dalton ish but even Andy Dalton at his peak with the Bengals was bigger I think you can argue that he was at least as good maybe a better athlete like people forget like Andy Dalton could really move when he was a little bit like absolutely he was a runner at TCU like he he could do that and so I think that there was just even more to his game and so I think if the best version of what you're getting is 90 % of what those mid-teens Dalton was.

36:25Dave Helman: I think it's hard for me to envision the world of like what the upside actually here really looks like.

36:31Derrik Klassen: Let me ask you a question. Is there a price point where Bryce Young starts to become appealing to you? I mean, let's assume, let's just say he ups his level of play to like a fringe middle of the pack kind of guy this year. is there a price point where you would be willing to try to build around the surplus that he might be able to give you because like Bryce Young I'm just I haven't seen anything that gives me confidence like I wouldn't even entertain you know anything near a top of the market extension for Bryce Young but like if somehow I could get him on the Sam Darnold deal is that appealing at all to you or do you not even believe he could get you to that sort of I don't think so because

37:18Dave Helman: even because realistically that's what it would be right no no he's not going to sign a 15 million dollar a year deal like that is a more a number that it's like okay you can start convince yourself but even the 33 million dollar a year deal doesn't exist for players signing their second contract it

37:31Derrik Klassen: just doesn't exist okay but wouldn't you and i i understand that but bryce feels so unique in this

37:39Dave Helman: regard that if it happened it would be him i just can't barring the same way it was for andy dalton

37:45Robert Mays: by the way. Right, exactly.

37:47Dave Helman: Which is why he kind of does feel like the comp in the best case scenario. But I think to your point, Dave, the guys who signed and had success in that range are Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. I think the arm talent and the way that you can build a passing offense is just different. Like Sam Darnold is imperfect, but you can craft a passing game, like a really explosive passing game around his best strengths, even if he's got some downsides. he's fantastically talented yes like there's a reason he was the you know top what third overall pick in the draft or whatever and like eight different teams were trying to give him a chance because the talent is undeniable and you can build a passing game around what his best traits are and I think the same is true of Baker Mayfield I think with Bryce Young I just don't feel that way even if there's things that he's decent at I don't look into him and go this is what we can build the passing game on whereas I do think with like Mayfield and Darnold you can do that I agree with that and I think there are there are arguments on both sides of this the argument for why we might

38:43Robert Mays: see the best version we've ever seen at Bryce Young I think goes like this last year but two years ago there were no pass catchers on this team it was an absolute wasteland and even heading into last year they have this idea of how the offense is going to be where they have Jalen Coker and T-Mac and you have the combination of those two and the ability to move Coker around allows you to move T-Mac around and you just have this more dynamic version of the passing game that you'd never had in Bryce's first couple years. And then immediately in training camp, Coker gets hurt. And so we never really get to see what the offense was supposed to look like for an extended period of time.

39:18And you can make an argument that even this year we won't get to see it because Brazel was supposed to give them even more flexibility. But I do think that with Coker and McMillan, and you've even seen the slot usage for McMillan in the preseason, this is the best collection of pass catchers the Panthers will have ever had by far coming into the year that Bryce Young has had. Add Jonathan Brooks to that mix as well, just in the sense that now having somebody to do some work after the catch and create some manufactured touches to where we had absolutely no one with that skill set previously, this is the best set of circumstances Bryce Young has ever walked into.

39:53And I think you could talk yourself into it being better and looking better because of that. But to Derek's point, how much better? And I think that when you're looking at some of these guys who have been highly drafted and that teams have moved on from. The downside, part of the downside to that is, well, what if he goes and succeeds somewhere else? That's what happened with Baker. That's what happened with Sam Darnold. And again, to Derek's point, I don't think the talent is at a level that you should be worried about

40:22Robert Mays: what it's going to look like down the road if you let it get out of your building. And I think part of the thought process, Dave, with what's the right number, there's some element of that where it's like, Like, all right, if you're spending 35 instead of 60 and you can use that surplus of 25 million to build the rest of your roster out, does that slightly close the gap between what his ceiling is and what another quarterback ceiling is? I would make an argument that the opportunity cost of not trying to seek out a better quarterback, that's what you lose. It's not about the money you're paying.

40:55Robert Mays: It's about the fact that you're not trying to upgrade at that spot and you're pigeonholing yourself into such a specific version of what the offense has to be that it doesn't really matter what you're paying him. The fact that you've tabbed him as the starter is the biggest price that you're ultimately going to be paying.

41:11Derrik Klassen: Now I'm just wondering, like, is the crossroads whether or not Bryce can play well enough to convince the Panthers not to fish in those waters for one more year? I mean, is that really what we're talking about? Yeah. I think so.

41:25Dave Helman: Yeah. I think that's it. For me personally, I don't realistically see a world where it, to me, in my eyes, he is worth extending or keeping around or being the long-term option. But I do think there is a world where he plays well enough, they win 10 games, and the Panthers just kind of go, well, shit, what else are we going to do? And so I think that that world exists, and I think if he can do that, again, that is going to get him paid. I just think really trying to thread a pretty fine needle to even arrive there.

41:54Derrik Klassen: I will say, though, even as the Bryce guy, let's say that happens. I would let Bryce play out the option before I worried about offering him a major deal, assuming he wants a lot of money, which I'm guessing he would. So that I mean, that is the beauty of picking up the option again in in this landscape. Twenty six million dollars just isn't that much money. and if it buys you one more year of time to figure your shit out, I think it's well worth it. What's about what you're paying in the room? If you have to go out and, I mean, I don't know if Baker gets out of the building, but let's just use Baker as a stand-in player.

42:29Robert Mays: You know what? Let's not even use Baker. Here's the quarterback I will use instead of Baker because I think this is the guy that actually will be in the conversation for how much do you want to pay a mid-tier resurrected first-round pick? Mac Jones. Mac Jones is, I think, the stand-in of this type of player for next year. If you give Mac Jones something that is like a slight downgrade or even the Sam Darnold contract, in year one, you are paying him probably$12 million against the cap. You combine that with Bryce Young, it's$36 million. You're paying your quarterback room$36 million. You can live with that.

43:06I think that's the thought.

43:08Robert Mays: You know you're not – there aren't free agent quarterbacks that you have to spend that much more on in the market. If you're going to go the veteran route because you won nine games, you don't have an option to draft somebody, you're probably going to be paying your room still combined$35-ish million against the cap, which you could absolutely do for one single year before you move on from the Bryce contract.

43:28Derrik Klassen: I will say it's Baker and Mack as far as quarterbacks that have proven they can make some sort of difference. I mean, that's really what you're talking about next year as far as like guys that'll be free agents. So next year might not be. And Baker will be. Excuse me, Mac will be. Mac will be a free agent next year. Baker might get tagged or whatever. Let's move on to our next guy here. I want to talk a little bit about Jalen Hurts heading into a new offense. No A.J. Brown. The first part of this conversation, I wanted to reserve a little bit of it to clear up some of the stuff

44:06Robert Mays: that was happening with the table discussion last week. The response that happened to that show, I don't want to ignore that. Like it was loud enough. And I think people ask the right questions that deserve like some sort of like self-reflection on our end of that, where the thought was, why are you not willing to give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt while you're willing to give so many of the other teams the benefit of the doubt? and you look back at like the 2024 Eagles and their ability to win the Super Bowl and like why is the situation different? And I want to be very clear about why I have reservations about the Eagles and I don't want to dance around it.

44:41I have doubts about the quality of the passing game and the consistency of the passing game. Point blank period. Like I don't, there's no reason to like sugarcoat that or like couch it in some other framing.

44:53Robert Mays: If you look at the last 10 years since 2016, which is when we have next gen stats. There are two teams in the past 10 years that have won the Super Bowl with a passing success rate outside the top 10 that season. Tom Brady in 2020. So Tom Brady. And Jalen Hurts in 2024. The Eagles that year when they won the Super Bowl in 2024 ran the ball on 54.7 % of their plays during the playoffs. There are two teams that have won the Super Bowl since 2005 that have cracked 53%. The other team is the 2005 Steelers.

45:37Dave Helman: I mean, that's not even the same sport at that point.

45:40Robert Mays: 20 years since the team ran the ball that much in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl. I think the way that a Jalen Hurts-led offense won the Super Bowl was incredibly specific with the best offense in the league. and I have my doubts in a worse set of circumstances. If this was happening with an average supporting cast or a supporting cast that we thought was getting better, then maybe I think you could talk yourself into them not needing that level of specificity to do it again. The circumstances are worse. He did that with the best, most explosive running game in the league, arguably, and A.J.

46:16Brown and Devontae Smith as the receivers on that team. The environment is worse now than it was then. And so that's why I land where I land. Again, two teams since 2016 had a passing game that was outside the top 10 in success rate. The Seahawks were third last season. The EPA per dropback numbers were bad because there were some turnovers. But in terms of consistency, they were one of the most consistent passing offenses in the league for a good majority of the year. And that is where, to me, there is a gap between the Eagles and everybody else.

46:47Robert Mays: And I think the two teams, as it relates to the table conversation, where you could argue that there's a double standard, would be the Broncos and the Texans. I have the same reservations about the Broncos.

46:59Dave Helman: Yes. The quality and consistency of the passing game. The difference with the Broncos is I think you can make an argument that the environment there is improving. They've added Jalen Waddell to this thing. You have a quarterback going into year three. I can talk myself into that being on a positive trajectory because I think Bill Nix's best environment is the one he's currently walking into. The other one would be the Texans. And I think the Texans have a chance to be a special defense. And the bar that you need to clear offensively when you have a special all-time defense is different to me than the bar that a normal offense has to clear in order to win the Super Bowl.

47:36Robert Mays: And so I just wanted to have a little bit of clarity around that conversation because I don't think I was clear enough when we did it last week. And that to me is like the starting point of the Jalen Hurts discussion is that even in great circumstances, they have not been a consistent enough passing game for me to consistently feel good about.

47:55Dave Helman: It's just a narrow pathway for him to get there. And I know that people will probably rebuttal and say, well, they got there in 20, was it 2022 as well?

48:03Robert Mays: They had a 42 % success rate in the playoffs in 2022 as a passing game. 48 to 50 is typically where you need to go to be a top 10 offense.

48:11Dave Helman: And that was in 2022? Yes. Yeah, exactly. He did not play all that. I mean, he played pretty well in the Super Bowl, but up until that run, they were not all that good. And I would also say the offensive line now, compared to where it was in either 2024 or 2022, I think you just have more questions. Like Lane Johnson is older. He's been a lot more banged up. Landon Dickerson, I don't know if he'll ever be as healthy as you want him to be. So I think you have some some questions there. I think right guard, I mean, has always been a little bit up and down, especially even in 2024. They got lucky with Becton.

48:41Dave Helman: But I think right guard is a little bit of an issue for them now. And I would also say again, compared to 2024, you don't have AJ Brown. And I know that last year was weird, but like AJ Brown's a really, really good player. And the other difference I would say, too, is that with 2022 and 2024, the offensive coordinators, even if we didn't think that they were necessarily superstars going into that job or at the time they'd done it before they'd done the job and like with Kellen Moore we'd had some proof of concept that like okay he kind of knows what he's doing here we just don't know a Sean Mannion maybe he's incredible but I just think it's harder to like go into it with the like okay this is stabilized sense that we could have had in 2024 I think it's just harder to get there in 20 in 2026 to bring it back to this conversation when you've seen all these other structural changes with

49:27Robert Mays: quarterbacks around the league over the last four or five years. Dak, to me, last year is a perfect example of this, where they had a very specific way that they played offense going back to like the Kellen Moore stuff in Dallas. And they carried over so much of that into the Mike McCarthy era. When they hired Brian Schottenheimer and Clayton Adams, they started doing more stuff that just made things easier on the quarterback. And the argument was that even if we can't put all this stuff on the quarterback, this is a way to make things a little bit easier on him and get a really good version of him.

49:56Robert Mays: And I think that's been the case with a lot of these guys. Joe Burrow were having that conversation. I think Mahomes were having that conversation right now. The crossroads thing with Jalen Hurts is, it's the exact same thought process. Can he do it? Like, can we get to a place where taking some of the load off him in this sort of offense gets the offense to a world where it does feel a little bit more adaptable and a little bit more dangerous, even without that massive talent advantage that they had when they were at their best two years ago? And that's the question. like is this enough if you make things a little bit easier on everybody for us to get a version of this quarterback that can keep this team really dangerous and competitive and I think that's the crossroad moment and I don't know the answer to that I think the other thing that I

50:41Derrik Klassen: would bring up and why I'm quicker to believe in the Eagles than you guys are is I am just more willing to give the benefit of the doubt to things that I've seen happen before and And ironically, of course, so much of it's going to hinge on Sean Mannion, which is something we can't know. We know how bad this has been when the wrong guy is calling the plays for this offense. But I'm I'm not willing to give up on the things that the Eagles have that work well so quickly, mainly the offensive line and the running game achieving a higher ceiling than it did last year. And I've said before, I know A.J.

51:18Derrik Klassen: Brown's not there. I think the world of Devontae Smith and I think this passing game can operate at a good level behind Devontae Smith with everybody else sort of filtering in behind him. I really do think he is that caliber of receiver. It's going to hinge on Jalen Hurts playing better than he did last year, obviously. And funnily enough, I'm not even a big believer in Jalen Hurts, but I am a believer in the infrastructure that the Eagles have built over the last four years. And if we're going back to the table conversation, a defense that I just have the utmost faith in to make all of that right, even when they're not clicking.

52:01Derrik Klassen: I just I've seen this team, A, look amazing and B, win a lot of games when they don't look amazing. And that just that carries a lot of weight for me, even in a year of transition.

52:12Dave Helman: I think where I'm at with it is that we haven't seen him do this before. If the offense is structurally different, I don't think that we've seen him do this before, because I think. I think what we've seen him do before to me is extremely specific. And that's what I was going to say. Like, I think that across every generation of the league, that there are always a handful of quarterbacks who can be very productive and very good for like a five year period in a very specific way. Jimmy G was this. Tua was this. Like, there are guys that, like, Carson Wentz being what he was at the top of the RPO revolution.

52:44Dave Helman: Like, you can kind of make guys really productive over very short periods until the league catches up where they need to change whatever it's going to be. This has to be that moment for him because I brought it up before. Like, it's kind of what it was with Lamar Jackson in, you know, whenever they brought in Todd Monken and I think in 2022. Like, it had to be different. He needed to grow. He needed to change. and I think that this moment for Jalen Hurts is more akin to that than some of the other things that we've talked about and so I think if he can do it like he has the talent to do it I just think that again like he's been a very specific player up to this point in his career and I think some of what it would require for this offense to work where it's throwing more over the middle it's a little bit more under center play action it's stuff that requires pocket presence and vision over the middle and trigger over the middle that I just haven't seen from him consistently that he needs to prove to me.

53:34Dave Helman: And so I think it's just, it's a lot of stuff that I haven't seen before that I would like to see from. Yeah, and I think that's where I land with it. And it's like, I feel like, again, just kind of like stepping back and trying to acknowledge and examine why the conversation happened the way that it happened

53:52Robert Mays: and some of the things that we just like treated as givens. The idea that we're in a more defense first place or you can lean on defense more to be a championship caliber team, to me, is real, right? Like, there are pathways there that it didn't feel like there was four or five years ago. But again, like, you still have to have a consistent passing offense as part of this. Like, I'd still rather bet on the consistent passing offense. That is a more prominent trait and a more consistent trait of the teams that ultimately win the Super Bowl. Like, the Eagles, like, well, we've seen them do this before.

54:26We saw them do this in a more specific way

54:29Robert Mays: than any Super Bowl champion has done in the last decade. And I just don't know how possible that is again. Like he needs to be a different player than he has ever been before for them to get back to a place where they can win the Super Bowl. And I don't know if that's possible. Jalen Hurts' best season as a passer from a success rate standpoint was a 2024 season when he threw for 2 ,900 yards. Like it just, it was such a specific type of offense. And I wonder how, whether they can continue to do that. That's it. And the crossroads moment is he needs to be a different player in terms of like what is asked of him within the offense than he's ever been before, simply because the offense is so drastically different.

55:10Robert Mays: Like, I just don't think that's a controversial thing to think or say coming into the season about him. The interesting question for me with Jalen Hurts is it's easy to get enamored with the way Philly does business.

55:24Derrik Klassen: And like we, you know, I talk all the time about how far out they are in front of these things. They traded Carson Wentz and took on the$34 million cap hit when they felt like it was time. And that paved the way for Jalen Hurts. I just wonder how short the leash really is. Like how, how realistic is it to talk about this as like a make or break year for Jalen Hurts? Because like if you look at the numbers, they can move that deal if they want to without it ruining their lives. But are they going to be that quick to do it? Like, let's just say this year's kind of middling and frustrating and the bottom doesn't drop out, but it's not great.

56:06Derrik Klassen: Is that enough to prompt wholesale change for most teams in the NFL? I would say no, but Philadelphia, I don't know. That's kind of their calling card. Yeah.

56:15Dave Helman: I feel like he's not playing for his job this year, obviously. At least I don't think. Even if Philly is a little bit more willing to do some of that stuff willy-nilly than some other teams. I do think, though, that if this year is pretty middling and he's 20th in QBR or whatever, and the team only wins nine games and maybe they get bombed in the wild card, whatever. I think if it's that sort of season, I do think next year he's playing for his job. I think this year it would have to be truly a disaster for them to even think about that. But I do think that if he doesn't change and he's not an improved player, I think next year they'll go into it like, OK, you're 30 now and you're the same player that you have been for five years.

56:53Dave Helman: This is kind of this is the make or break. And so that's kind of where I'm at with it.

56:57Robert Mays: And again, I think that's the the crossroads becomes the urgency that we feel after this season. And I do think that that's exactly where I sit with Jalen Hurts. There's a reason that they change so many elements of the offense. They know that they need to be the sort of team and the sort of offense they've never been before. And I think how much of that he has to carry is more than it's ever been in a world without A.J. Brown. And whether he can do that, I think, becomes the central question. Let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a couple more of these guys.

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1:00:10All right.

1:00:11Robert Mays: So no one accuses me of just playing favorites here. The next guy that we're going to talk about that I also think is at a crossroads coming into this season is Justin Herbert.

1:00:23Dave Helman: I mean, this is the first time he's had a play caller where everyone is like, this rocks. This is a, what is your excuse now if this season does not go well for Justin Herbert?

1:00:37Robert Mays: And I think, and that is the like, that's the response that like the Justin Herbert haters will take on. And I think they will be more than justified in approaching it that way, depending how this goes.

1:00:48Dave Helman: I think that's the thing is that I think a lot of people already kind of view him in the like, oh, he can't do it. And if X, Y and Z. But I do think that assuming the offensive line is relatively healthy and goes into the postseason fine. Which it's the Chargers. I don't know. Yeah. Given that and like given that Mike McDaniel again, like he's like, you know, Kellen Moore has been there before and he's fine. But like Mike McDaniel is one of the dudes. This would be the time that it's like, OK, if they can't put it together now, I think some of the criticism starts to be legit. And again, I don't think that this is a spot where it's like, if it's not perfect, they're going to think about moving on.

1:01:23Dave Helman: Like, I think there's nobody in the building that is even sort of thinking about moving on from him until he breaks and shatters. But I think it does just, this is one where it shifts the narrative of how willing are people to defend him as like the fifth best quarterback in the NFL. Yes. This is a narrative. A narrative. This is a narrative. Yes. Yes. I can buy that.

1:01:43Robert Mays: Oh, yeah. Justin Herbert's going to be the quarterback of the Chargers. it's more about how quick are people willing to defend him and how much is he willing to get how much are people willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because if you were somebody who wants to argue for justin herbert the easiest place you could consistently go over the last couple years is like the two guys that were his offensive coordinators previously it was joe lombardi and then greg roman both of whom lost their jobs last year as offensive coordinators mike mcdaniel was a former head coach who was in a completely different tier when it comes to the results he has gotten from non-MVP quarterbacks.

1:02:17Robert Mays: Like Greg Roman with Lamar Jackson, they reached very high highs in 2019. The highs were not that far off from what Mike McDaniel was doing with Tua Tungamailoa. And so this is just a different thing. And I think that's where people are going to turn if Justin Herbert hits any sort of stretch where it doesn't look great this year. It's like, all right, we gave him Mike McDaniel. Now what? Like what else do you guys want who think this guy walks on water?

1:02:42Derrik Klassen: You know what this made me think of? and I don't want to hear any bullshit about favoritism because I wanted the Eagles to be at the table. So it has nothing to do with that. But when I hear this, I just think about the fact that Stafford threw for 45 ,000 yards and 300 touchdowns at, in Detroit and didn't win his first playoff game until he got to the Rams. And like that, if you like, if you don't want to hear that, that's fine. And if you think Matthew Stafford underperformed in Detroit, that's also fine. doesn't change the fact that he's really good maybe the crossroads should be la chargers harness your quarterback before he's too old and wants a trade out of town it's not it's not to say that we should absolve him of anything and you can levy all the criticism you want at justin herbert that's fine i even i'll take it back i got receipts man i had stafford over herbert before last year even started but i still think at the end of the day he's a quarterback that you should be able to build a good team around and if you can't do it over enough years i just think it says more about you than him but maybe i'm maybe i am i am excuse making though to people like there are people that talk about him like he's jesus christ like it at a certain point like i think that's what needs to happen and i i'm pointing the finger at myself here as much as anybody i think i've been guilty of some of this stuff and i think that's why i'm trying to bring a little self-reflection to this process.

1:04:08When I look at Herbert specifically, and we look at last year, here's what I think has happened. When there was a stretch with Lombardi where all I wanted from Justin Herbert was more aggressiveness, a little bit of a looser play style, like you are a freak. I want to feel the physical anomaly that you are playing this position and what you can bring to it. And there was a stretch at points over the last two seasons where you did start to feel that a little bit. He was scrambling a little bit more. He was pushing the ball downfield a little bit more. But last year, the game I would point to that I think is a really telling example of this, the Philly game, they don't survive that game with a different sort of quarterback than him.

1:04:53But I think him needing to play that way last year where he's scrambling so much, he's taking off all the time, he's trying to carry all of it, led to some really bad habits when he had to start playing quarterback in a normal way as we got into the playoffs. He's never properly calibrated all of this, all the exact what the exact combination and in the right ratios that I think he needs to in order to sustain success as the best possible version of himself. I don't think that's really happened.

1:05:27Dave Helman: No, it hasn't. And I would I would kind of like today's point. I think that that's often the reality for guys who are playing on imperfect franchises that are supremely talented or like, you know, don't strike when the iron is hot. Like, I think Lamar Jackson's journey was a little bit different because they came into the league and like they just found this thing that nobody else was doing. And I don't think that Justin Herbert has quite had that. So he's had years where he's really good at this and then years where he's really good at this. And now the scrambling is he's better at it. But now there's games where he's forced to do it too much, like the Philly game.

1:05:54Dave Helman: And then even the playoff game this year, like New England just blitzed the shit out of them and they couldn't pick up anything. And he was by the end of it, they were like, we can't call anything, but let him just run, basically. And so I think that had led to some bad habits. And so I think you worry about that. But today's other point about Stafford, he goes to the Rams and obviously. I think becomes a different player, but is also allowed to be the best version of himself. I think what you're hoping for here, if you're the charges that you're bringing the Rams to Justin Herbert. Exactly. You are bringing Mike McDaniel and that like magic to him.

1:06:27Dave Helman: And so I do think that there's a world where Justin or Jim Harbaugh got a lot of the, hey, can you just play looser? Can you scramble more? Can you just chuck it down the field? I think he has gotten that out of him. The offensive infrastructure and offensive line play just has not been to the level where that's gotten the most fruits that you can out of it. I do think that Mike McDaniel can be the final like, okay, it's stable around you now. Go do it, big man. Go be the fourth most productive quarterback in the league, whatever it's going to be.

1:06:56Derrik Klassen: I like this take at the end of the day because I just, I don't know how much you're going to change my opinion that Justin Herbert is a supremely talented quarterback. But if Mike McDaniel can't unlock another layer of explosiveness and consistency, then I don't think it changes how talented he is, but it can certainly change where he needs to land when we have these types of offseason conversations. That's exactly it.

1:07:23Robert Mays: And what Derek just said to me is exactly right. And I believe this can happen. Like, I do think these are the circumstances under which this can happen. But if it doesn't, then I do think that we have to, there's some revisiting that has to happen. And so I am willing to take the optimistic view on this. We're doing the AFC West preview first. And, like, I'm excited to watch this. You know, I'm excited to have that conversation. But I think that if we get to the end of the year and that calibration still feels off, even if the offensive line play is imperfect, I think the environmental considerations here are very different than they have been.

1:07:58Robert Mays: And so I think that is why it feels a little bit different for Justin Herbert heading into this season than it has for a little while. All right. Two more guys we wanted to hit here fairly quickly. Let's talk a little bit about Michael Penix and what his crossroads moment potentially looks like this year. Derek, I think this was your suggestion that you want to talk about Penix. Why did you feel like Michael Penix fit this exercise?

1:08:20Dave Helman: guys well he he's actually interesting to me from a lot of the other young quarterbacks where I think I think with so many young quarterbacks we're just like we want to make the argument that like whatever flashes we see it like it means he's good I actually think or it means that he can be really good down the line I think Michael Penix has enough obvious flaws that it's hard for me to see him ever really like developing into a top 12 guy I think you have the injury history it's pretty immobile and inflexible doesn't really have touch on the ball all of that being said I'm pretty confident he's like a mature NFL quarterback.

1:08:53Dave Helman: Like he has a process with which he plays the game. He's willing to make these deep and aggressive throws outside the numbers. He gets to his check down really quickly. He's a guy who doesn't really take that many negative plays. Like he doesn't get sacked, doesn't throw all that many interceptions. Like I think he has a pretty clear process with which he plays the game and even production wise. And I know that he's throwing to Drake London, Kyle Pitts is good, Bajon Robinson, all this stuff. His numbers production wise have been better than some of the other guys that we're talking about. Like some of these other guys at Crossroads.

1:09:21Dave Helman: Like, I mean, just statistically, like he's significantly better than Bryce Young was. And really like compared to last year, he's not like that dramatically far off from what CJ Stroud has been over the past couple of years. If you put the numbers together cumulatively, like in terms of EPA per drop back. So I just think he's in a spot where he's going to be fighting for, is this a guy we want to commit to long-term? And I think doing that with a new staff is always tricky. Like it's not the regime necessarily drafted you. It's not the coaching staff who drafted you. But I do think that there's a chance that he shows enough, he flashes enough where he's a guy who maybe three years from now bounces around a little bit and stumbles into another starting position.

1:09:58Dave Helman: And I think whether or not he flashes enough for that to be something that he can actually hold on to the next couple of years, that to me is the crossroads.

1:10:07Derrik Klassen: I'd like to, Robert, take this opportunity to issue a little bit of a mea culpa, because when we've talked about the Falcons over the course of training camp, I've been the one following the tea leaves and the breadcrumbs and saying, yeah, I mean, this is Tua Tungavailoa all the way, and Michael Penix might not ever get that opportunity. And I had a lot of confidence that might be the case because you can kind of hide a quarterback in the preseason, even if he's not very good. Tua has been that bad that you can't really hide him in the preseason, which is a terrible sign. And it's not that I thought Tua was going to be great in Atlanta.

1:10:47Derrik Klassen: I thought you might at least be able to get a month into the season before we started having a conversation about making a switch. And sitting here on August 24th, I'm legitimately curious if Tua even makes it to week one. That's how bad it's been. So maybe I wasn't giving Michael Penix enough credit for having a shot to flip the script. I think he'll make it to week one. I think he'll make it to week one for two reasons. One, day to day, it has not looked as bad as it did in the preseason games. And I think that's worth weighing, even if the preseason games were bad. But more importantly, Michael Penix just got cleared.

1:11:24Yeah, I know. Like yesterday. I don't think there is. He's done a lot of like seven on seven work, but he's done none like no teamwork. And so I just don't know if based purely on like feel and how often he's been out there, if he's going to be ready to play by the time the season starts.

1:11:41Robert Mays: That being said, how quickly it happens to three weeks into the season. Michael Penix is going to play this year. We are going to see Michael Penix this year. The only circumstances in which we would not see Michael Penix this year is if Tua just lights the world on fire at the start of the season. How confident are we in that happening? None confident.

1:12:04Dave Helman: None. Yeah, I was trying to look for the words for it, but none is good. That'll suffice. Michael Penix is going to play.

1:12:11Robert Mays: And whether he plays well enough to stave off them drafting a quarterback next year, them seeking out another quarterback next year, I think that also becomes part of the conversation. Like Michael Penix's crossroads to me is he's going to play this year. By the time we get to the end of the year, has he done well enough where when we talk about the Falcons quarterback situation next season, it's Michael Penix and some token competition over Michael Penix happens to be on the roster and they drafted a guy in the top 10.

1:12:42Dave Helman: I think that's ultimately what it comes down to. Yeah. I don't know how confident I am in him being a long-term positive answer.

1:12:48Robert Mays: I think I'm kind of with Derek on that. Like, I think there I think he'll have a career. I think he'll get another shot at one point, whether he's the Falcons answer. I don't know the answer. I'm not sure about that. But I think whether he's in their potential plans for next year or even as part of a competition, that to me feels like the most important thing that can happen to him.

1:13:07Dave Helman: And I even think there's a world where he plays OK this year and just maybe depending on where the Falcons are at draft order wise, like they still take a quarterback anyway and move on from him. I think to me the biggest crossroads is like in two years when he's off the team and he's, you know, not signed a new deal with them. Are people interested that he's signing somewhere and being like, maybe this is a competition or he's really high level backup like a Jacoby Brissette or Joe Flacco? Or does just nobody care where he signed and we just like forget about it until he plays in the preseason?

1:13:35Dave Helman: That to me is kind of like the difference of what he's able to show this year.

1:13:39Derrik Klassen: Is he intriguing trade bait if the Falcons are in position to draft a quarterback next year? Right. Like if they draft, it doesn't really matter what quarterback is.

1:13:49Dave Helman: If they draft someone at seventh overall, do you want, exactly, do you want to trade Michael Penix or is it just like, who cares? Like it doesn't matter.

1:13:55Robert Mays: Is he one of the names we throw out when we're talking about Mac Jones and Baker next spring as if you need a side road answer, is he one of those guys? I think that is a good outcome for Michael Penix wherever it happens to be. Last one here that we wanted to hit. This is a pretty obvious one. Malik Willis is a quarterback hitting a crossroads this year. Talking about teams that may be in a position to draft a quarterback and whether they are speaks to what we saw from this guy over the course of the season, Derek. Malik Willis may be the best example of this.

1:14:25Dave Helman: Yeah, I mean, a lot of times these guys who are coming to the league as backups or, you know, mid and late round picks and spend a lot of time on the bench and then get signed in this way where, like, you can go and be the guy, you might only get one opportunity to do that. You might only get your one chance. And I think that this reminds me a little bit of two different scenarios. It reminds me of like Matt Flynn kind of getting this chance. And it reminds me of Tyrod Taylor getting this chance. You know, he had been with the Ravens for a very long time and then goes over to the Bills. And the circumstances of the contract were different.

1:14:54Dave Helman: Like Malik Willis is getting like starter money, whereas Tyrod signed like a one year $3 million deal. But there wasn't very serious competition when he signed that deal. And then he immediately was able to take over that job. And he wasn't great, but he played like mid-level quarterback play. and they immediately extended him after that season. And so I think that's what you're hoping for if you're Malik Willis. And obviously I think it's going to be hard to show that because it's not a great roster, right? But I think he's at least going to have the chance to be alive and make some plays because that offensive line will keep him upright.

1:15:28Dave Helman: To be alive? Listen, some of these guys signed deals on bad teams and they're just getting nuked. And I don't think that that will be the case with Miami and Malik Willis. Like the offensive line has some talent. Like I think the left tackle is promising. You draft the first round guard. The center is about as good as anybody in football. Savanaya, I think showed some stuff last year. Like the offensive line should be quality. And Devon Achan's a good running back. So the pass catchers, whatever. But like there's enough here that he might flash something. And I think that maybe there's a world where he plays fine enough.

1:15:57Dave Helman: They still get the third pick. They still take a quarterback. But if he plays well enough, even in those scenarios, maybe a year or two from now, somebody wants to trade for him or give him another chance. Like this, I think kind of his is his audition to be like, I am good enough to do this.

1:16:11Robert Mays: I just wonder what the pass catching situation looks like, like the idea that it's Malik Washington, Caleb, like Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell. I think there's reason to be excited about what we saw in the preseason and Chris Bell just as a prospect. But those are we're talking about third round rookies that are going to be prominently featured as part of this. Like Greg Dolchich. That's the question I have. I'm honestly excited to watch it. Like I'm curious about what the dolphins offense is going to look like, but even if the offensive line is good, I think there are enough potential concerns with the past catchers where this thing could still look pretty ugly over the course of the entire year.

1:16:45Derrik Klassen: And that's my main concern, which sounds bleak. I am excited to watch the dolphins. I think there are legitimately interesting team, but Malik Willis could play pretty well. And to Derek's point, they could still have a big, big draft pick that, you know, you just have to take a quarterback when you're seeing the defensive personnel.

1:17:05Robert Mays: That's what I'm saying. Even if the offense is good,

1:17:08Derrik Klassen: Malik Willis could be solid and they could still be taking a quarterback very highly in the draft. I think it's a, this contract doesn't tie the dolphins to anything. And so I feel for Malik Willis a little bit. And again,

1:17:21Dave Helman: I don't think this is necessarily about him being the dolphins long-term starting quarterback. I just think that if he can play well enough, will somebody else want to give you the chance? Because I think again, sometimes the backups don't get it. Whereas guys who are like top 10 draft picks just get chance after chance. I mean, again, how many chances did Sam Darnold get? Justin Fields was not really good at any point and got paid three different times. Well, I mean, two if you count, if you don't count him being drafted. But two different teams paid him to be the starter.

1:17:46Derrik Klassen: He was also traded for this year.

1:17:49Dave Helman: Yes. Like, I just, I don't know if Malik Willis gets that if it doesn't go well enough. But I can see the world where he flashes enough. This team still wins two games to draft somebody else. But somebody is like, well, you have Archie Manning. And can we get the other guy? I think that that's on the deal.

1:18:02Robert Mays: It's$20 million base salary. That is more than doable if you're a team looking for an off-ramp. And so I think we have some names that could make next spring's quarterback carousel look a lot more interesting than it currently looks. And I think those would be positive outcomes for these crossroads players that we're talking about. All right. That is all we've got for today. Like I mentioned at the top, we will be back tomorrow with the AFC West preview, Kicking off the division previews, we'll have one a day for the next eight days on this show, only interrupted by us having our last training camp notebook on Saturday with the Beat Riders, which I'm about to go record with Matt Schneidman right now, which is why I have to go.

1:18:43Robert Mays: But we will be back. We will be here with the division previews tomorrow. Looking forward to it for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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