Revisiting our coldest takes from the 2025 NFL season

0:00Dave Helman: Make Mother's Day even more special at Whole Foods Market. Kick off brunch or dinner with quality cheese and charcuterie with no synthetic nitrates. Then go see food. There's an abundance on sale at Whole Foods Market, where it's all sustainable while caught or responsibly farmed. At the bakery, grab seasonal treats like their strawberry pretzel cream pie, and you can't go wrong with a ready-to-heat quiche Lorraine, deviled eggs, and fresh-cut fruits to go. Celebrate mom with Whole Foods Market. We all know winning means showing up stronger, faster, better than before. And when you're chasing that edge, the drop by GNC cuts through the noise, bringing you the best new innovations in sports nutrition and performance.

0:41Dave Helman: From muscle building and strength support to improved recovery and focus, we curate the newest drops from GNC Amp, Pro Performance, and Mega Man. Plus, Ghost, Raw Nutrition, Bucked Up, and the top new brands changing the game. No guesswork, just leveling up. Check out The Drop by GNC for what's new, what works, and what's next.

1:03Derrik Klassen: Security program on spreadsheets, new regulations piling up, and audit dread? It's time for Vanta. Vanta automates security and compliance, brings evidence into one place, and cuts audit prep by 82%.

1:15Robert Mays: Less manual work, clearer visibility, faster deals. Zero chaos. Call it compliance, or call it compliance. Get it? Join the 15 ,000 companies using Vanta to prove trust.

1:28Dave Helman: Go to V-A-N-T-A dot com slash com.

1:35Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today is not a fun day, but it's a day that it's probably necessary. Me, Dave, and Derek are facing the music today. We did this last offseason. I really enjoyed it. It's Cold Takes Revisited. We are going back over some of the most misguided, stupid, unacceptable takes that we had about the 2025 season, either during the season or heading into it and try to figure out what we can learn as we do a little bit of postmortem on those. Some of the things we said about the Raiders, some of the questions we had about the Seahawks offense, some of the optimism that some of us, me and Dave, had about the Tennessee Titans.

2:17Robert Mays: We're going to try to figure out what lessons there might be in going back through those and figuring out why we felt that way and how we can be a little bit better in the future. So it's cold takes you visited on the athletic football show. Let's get to it right now.

2:40Robert Mays: It's become an offseason staple for us over the last couple of years. unfortunately for the three of us today it is time to face the music David I don't like it

2:51Derrik Klassen: this is this is my first go around with this show and I can't say I like it this is it's fun to it's fun to sew it's less fun to reap you know when you're doing five shows a week and talking about

3:04Robert Mays: I mean I don't know how many episodes we did last year but five shows a week times 26 weeks a year we're talking like hundreds of hours of bullshit that we're spewing over the course of any given season any given calendar year Derek when you're doing it at that sort of clip inevitably you're going to get to a point where you say some shit that you regret I I forget probably 70 percent of what I say over the course of a hundred percent in season I thankfully the both both the people in the discord who helped us out with this today and just the general populace of the internet, they're here to remind you about the things that you said.

3:42Robert Mays: They're always available to help you out with that.

3:44Derrik Klassen: Yeah, it's fun. I think I tend to forget the smart stuff I say more than the dumb because people are going to let you know if you said something dumb. It's less likely that somebody is going to be like, remember that great take you had? Like you get that less than you get the other ones.

3:59Robert Mays: Yeah, absolutely. I also just care less. The idea of being right about things is just not that interesting to me. I don't attach myself to like I must be right about this thing to me it's one of the biggest misconceptions about how people interface with the content that you do where it's like I'm not even going to mention his name there's a certain quarterback that people are fixated in this idea where because certain people didn't think that he would be a good NFL player and now we refuse to believe that he might be and it's like I didn't care Like I didn't have enough of a pre-draft opinion of this person to attach myself to that being right or wrong and rooting for it in the moment.

4:43Robert Mays: Like that just matters less to me than I think people on the outside might think.

4:47Derrik Klassen: I hear you. I don't really care about being right so much as I care about not being bothered. Like and I don't want to catch hell for something that I said. Yeah. If it was like dead wrong.

4:56Robert Mays: Yeah. I think you root for things to be correct and I think you root for to get a lot of this stuff right. But there are certain like there are certain elements of it where I just don't care that much. Like I don't not bending my opinion about this to me being right about something I previously said. That does happen every once in a while. But today we are going to go through, I don't know, 10, a dozen things, takes, thoughts, comments that were either happened during last season or happened as we were previewing last season. and not only to make fun of ourselves, which I think is an important part of this process, but also, Derek, I think you can learn something by doing this, by going back and trying to figure out what we got wrong and why.

5:38Robert Mays: I think that it can inform the way that maybe you'll think about these sorts of questions heading into next year.

5:44Dave Helman: 100%, like there were a couple of these that, it's funny, I think out of the dozen or so takes that we have, there are a couple that I'm gonna be like, no, I would say that again. And then there are like three or four that I'm like, Like, I clearly, like, missed something here or there was new information that came out, like, after I initially had the take that I didn't end up updating and, like, you know, ended up on the wrong side of the take. Like, certain stuff like that that going into this season I'm going to try to be more mindful of when we do division previews and preseason awards and all that stuff.

6:14Dave Helman: But it's, you're going to be wrong for a different reason, but the point is to try to not make the same mistake that we made last time.

6:21Derrik Klassen: I just love that this is Derek's first show back from a break. Right into the deep end.

6:27Robert Mays: Here's all the dumb shit we've said. All right, let's dig into these. Dave, you're up first. This is your first go around with this, so you get to kick us off. You said at some point last year that after hiring Pete Carroll, after trading for Geno Smith, that the Raiders would be a respectable football operation.

6:45Derrik Klassen: Not to say that the Raiders are definitely going to make the playoffs, but I think they will be a respectable football operation very quickly. I think what I learned from this, and I, at the risk of sounding overly defensive, I was not alone in this take. I think most people felt this way. I think what I would learn from this is

7:10Derrik Klassen: dig deeper than just the vague platitude of like, well, Pete Carroll's done this for a long time. And that means credibility. And in so many circumstances, you would think that that is true. But I think you owe it to yourself to go levels deeper than just the name Pete Carroll and look at all of the elements involved. I mean, the after the season, it came out like the one of the Raiders biggest problems and a thing that got reported on and a thing that seemed like it contributed to a lot of their struggles was the coaching at the lower level. More directly, the role that like Pete Carroll hiring his sons to major roles on the coaching staff played in the Raiders demise.

7:51Derrik Klassen: And you don't think about stuff like that when you just hear that Pete Carroll's taking the job and like having that high level person sort of helps you hand wave these things away. It clearly wasn't the case. And I think another interesting component of this is John Spitek was in his first year as a general manager. You bring in a guy like Pete Carroll, who's used to competing at a very high level and who's used to having some degree of say. Like John Schneider obviously had a lot of say in Seattle, but they were very much a tandem sort of power structure in Seattle and how all that played into each other in terms of decision making and head butting who has the final say.

8:28Derrik Klassen: So clearly there were a lot more reasons for concern than we gave it credit for. And so I move forward from that thinking like, OK, the the resume does not guarantee those sorts of results. I mean, I never, ever, even if the Raiders weren't good, you know, like there's no guarantee they were going to be good. And I think we even said that, like, absolutely. We were like, oh, well, if they're seven and ten, but respectable, like that's still a good season for the Raiders. And they were barely an NFL team. I mean, the Chiefs, the first Chiefs game, I think. And there was another game where like the other team just stopped trying in the early fourth quarter where they were just like, OK, we're done.

9:10Derrik Klassen: It's 31 to nothing. Let's just get out of here.

9:12Dave Helman: The Dallas game, maybe didn't Dallas just bludgeon them in like a primetime game. All right. Hang on now.

9:17Derrik Klassen: Now that we're talking about it, it was the Monday night game, right?

9:20Robert Mays: When everyone was everyone decided that the Cowboys defense was good again. Oh, no.

9:23Derrik Klassen: OK, but the one I'm talking about is the Eagles game. The Eagles beat them 31 to nothing. And I mean, it was like a, you know, a Pop Warner game where the one team is clearly a lot better. And it's like, all right, just run up the middle and let's get out of here. We're not trying to showboat too much. Like it's not supposed to look like that in the NFL ever. And it looked like that several times for the Raiders last year. I never could have predicted that.

9:48Robert Mays: There are a lot of things to dig into here. We're going to talk about the Raiders offensive infrastructure problems because it'll lead us to a Geno Smith conversation in Seattle. And I think that's that will be a topic that we hit here on the P. Carroll side of it. I think there are a couple of different comparisons you could make either that had happened in the past or that are happening right now that are analogous to the Pete Carroll situation. The comparison that I know I made heading into last year is can Pete Carroll, even if he's 10 years older, be Andy Reid in Kansas City for the Raiders?

10:22Robert Mays: And one of the things that Andy Reid, I remember people talking about this in the moment, that he was very thoughtful about when he took that Chiefs job is that he was going to get back to being a head coach and an offensive coach first and foremost. In Philly, he had been doing a lot of personnel stuff. You get stretched a little bit thin. In Kansas City, he was going to be a guy who like, this is my offense. I'm in charge of this. I'm going to do the installs. I'm going to oversee this thing. And that's a huge difference between what Andy Reid is bringing to the table and what Pete Carroll was bringing to the table.

10:55Robert Mays: So if you're not going to be the person who is making sure the offensive infrastructure and the plan on that side of the ball is operating at a certain level. You need to hire the right people to do that. And I think it was pretty clear last year, and we can dig into this more, that Pete Carroll did not hire the right people to do that. I was talking to a coach from a different team today, just completely without provocation, started talking about the Raiders last year and what it was like to watch the Raiders offense. And he's like, they ran every cool play a team had run over the past two weeks.

11:24Robert Mays: And it had absolutely no cohesion or fundamental principles to it. It wasn't built on anything. And I think you could feel that when you watch them. The other version of this, that it can work, and I think the Giants are hoping they don't get this, is what a guy like John Harbaugh is bringing to the table. And I was talking to a coach there today about what the offseason has been like in that building. And he was just telling me that John does such a great job of interrogating the systems on offense and defense. Does this make sense? Is this what we should be doing? So you can be that CEO type and get your team to where you want to go by operating that way.

12:02Robert Mays: But you better make sure that those systems are exactly where they need to be, that they reach the level that you need them to reach. And on offense specifically, Derek, I think it was pretty clear pretty quickly that just wasn't going to be the case for the Raiders last year.

12:15Dave Helman: And that's what when I was saying before going into the show that like some of the issues I had with takes were like not updating things after the fact was the Pete Carroll hiring. Like I think when he initially gets hired, I think it's okay to say, like, listen, Pete Carroll has he's always had winning programs. He always has this like steady hand over the ship, all that sort of stuff. And I think it's fair to say that as soon as he gets hired. But then as they was talking about, like when he's putting his sons in like major coaching positions, specifically the offensive line, when we talked about this being a very fragile offensive line that like even in the best case scenario, they needed they were going to be like the 18th best offensive line and they needed to be that to work.

12:52Dave Helman: that I think was was an issue that I probably did not calibrate for enough that like we didn't know if we were going to get really good offensive line coaching there we obviously got pretty bad offensive line coaching there it seemed like for a lot of this year a lot of the young guys didn't end up taking steps and then the Chip Kelly of it all I think this was if there's any lesson I'm taking from this is that I'm going all the way back to like I'm never trusting a college coordinator until they can prove it to me again and and with Chip Kelly it was like we were coming off of that 2024 Ohio State season where it's like one like it won the national championship and like it all felt cool and it was like oh Chip Kelly can do it again but in college you can kind of get away with we're just running some of the cool flashy plays and it's not really built on each other when you have Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, Emeka Ibuka, multiple NFL offensive linemen, two really good running backs who were both awesome as rookies like you can kind of just get away with like hodgepodge in the cool plays because yeah all these five stars are going to go make plays and I know that they're like there are a couple of nice pieces on the Raiders offense like Brock Bowers is cool they drafted Ashton Gentry there's a different level of cohesion and principles that you need in the NFL that Chip Kelly just didn't bring and I think I just wanted this to work so badly that I kind of overlooked that and was like I know a couple of the cool players it'll be fine

14:13Robert Mays: in fairness to you i think again if you're trying to find analogous cases to something like this like all right how can this work out what recent examples do we have todd munkin just did this with with brock bowers at georgia he comes from being in the nfl before a little bit that was the difference i mean sort of right the last time he was a play caller in the nfl was 2018 I loved that team. Like, I loved watching that Bucs team. But it had been five whole years since he had done that. And Chip Kelly, it's even longer ago than that. But at least Chip Kelly had also done it in the NFL at some point.

14:50Derrik Klassen: I was going to say 2013 Eagles isn't selling you too much.

14:53Dave Helman: It was fun, but that was cheese. We know now looking back that that offense was cheese. And the Mankin offense wasn't great with the Bucs necessarily. but like it was an NFL operation at least.

15:07Robert Mays: Yeah, I think it's easy to say that in hindsight, but I also don't blame anybody for talking themselves into the Chip Kelly thing in the same way you could have talked yourself into the Mankin thing. This, and this will come up with a lot as we go through these teams and go through some of the things that we said. And Derek, you and I, it was at least you and I were on a show last year. We were trying to figure out what are the teams we overrate and underrate heading into a given season? Like what are the hallmarks of those teams? and new play callers is the way to get a team extremely right or extremely wrong because you can either put too much faith in what that guy is going to do or you can put not enough faith in what that guy is going to do with the Raiders I think collectively we had too much collective optimism that Chip Kelly would be able to get this thing to an acceptable level in Seattle I didn't have enough optimism and what going from one of those bottom of the barrel offensive systems to a like grown up buttoned up NFL sort of offense would do.

16:05Robert Mays: And so there are a bunch of different candidates here with how you can frame some of the things I said about the Seahawks heading into the season. What one that I'll start with is when they made all of those moves, when they traded away DK Metcalf, when they traded away Geno Smith, we did multiple shows about it. And I was completely on board with the DK thing. The Geno Smith move, what I thought they were doing is I thought that they were, I thought Gino had been better over the prior two years than, I think Gino had more earned equity over those couple years in Seattle than Sam Darnold had from one season in Minnesota in what I perceived to be a really, really good situation.

16:42Robert Mays: And so I was on board with pretty much everything Seattle had done from the way they had built the offense to hiring Clint Kubiak, all of that stuff. I had questions, but I could understand it. I thought that by going from Gino Smith to Sam Darnold, they were downgrading a quarterback. There are a lot of different ways to talk about this, and I don't want to sound defensive about it, but I want to just state very clearly, Geno Smith was very good in 2023 and 2024 for the Seahawks. He was not good last year. And so I think the problem with that was in framing that going from Geno to Darnold is a downgrade.

17:15Robert Mays: I was expecting Geno to be as good in 2025 or had the capability to be as good in 2025 as he had been the last couple of years. That didn't happen for a lot of the reasons we just said about the Raiders' offensive infrastructure. He was bad. And I think I underrated Darnold's ability to carry over what he had done in Minnesota because we looked at Minnesota and the way that people talk about Kevin O 'Connell, you have Justin Jefferson there, you have Jordan Addison there. And I think that I incorrectly treated it as a place where you could just kind of sprinkle some pixie dust on the quarterback and you were gonna get a certain level of quarterback play.

17:50Robert Mays: But it's really the last, the only time we had seen Darnold as an extended starter for a while. And so I just didn't have enough faith in Darnold's ability to continue that level of play that he had in 2024. And I think I had too much faith in Geno's ability to continue the level of play he had in 2024. And so obviously, if you look at what they both did last season, Geno would not have given that version of him better quarterback play than Sam Darnold gave the Seahawks last year, obviously.

18:18Derrik Klassen: I think for right or for wrong to Darnold's last two games in Minnesota loomed so large in my mind.

18:24Robert Mays: Probably too large.

18:25Derrik Klassen: Probably too, like absolutely too large based on what we've seen since. But home field advantage on the line and then a playoff game, those two performances being the last two things you remember. And there were so many good moments in Minnesota. Don't get me wrong, but that stuff gets weighted very heavily. And it's funny because you try to push back against that. I don't buy in super heavily to the idea of the clutch gene or performing in the postseason. I don't typically subscribe to that. But clearly, those two games made a large impression on me. Not that I thought Darnold wasn't a good player, but I did not see him being an MVP candidate for at least part of last season and eventually leading a team to a Super Bowl in year one.

19:11Derrik Klassen: I have no problem admitting I didn't see that as a realistic possibility.

19:14Robert Mays: his level of play was just more resilient than I thought it was going to be Derek

19:18Dave Helman: it was and like I think for me I think what I'll first say about the the clutch gene thing I mostly also disagree like the clutch gene that stuff doesn't really exist but in that case of Darnold like that was really the first time probably since high school that he was playing in games that were that high leverage and like that does matter like that being the first time that you're playing in those like it's it's just hard to do and like if anything having those experiences and then being able to carry that over into Seattle probably helped him play pretty well down the stretch for them once they got into the playoffs and when they needed.

19:50Dave Helman: But I also didn't think that he was going to be as resilient. I thought he could still stick around. And it was like his year in Minnesota was real insofar as like he can keep getting jobs. I did not think it was real insofar as like he can be in a slightly above average NFL quarterback and lead really good offenses. And then the other part of it is like, I just did not think that Seattle offense had anything. Like I, I think we thought JSN was good. We didn't think he was the third best receiver in the NFL and having MVP stretches. I think we thought the tackles on the offensive line were nice if they were healthy.

20:25Dave Helman: I don't think we thought the interior was going to play very well at all. Like it was a big question. Like you had Gray Zabel coming in, who was like an FCS player. None of the interior had really played like at that high of a level going into it. And then like Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet were fine, but we'd never really see Kenneth Walker play at like that high of a level for super long stretches. They didn't really have a good wide receiver to a wide receiver three until they traded for one halfway through the season. And then the tight ends like AJ Barner ended up breaking out. And I liked what he could be as maybe like a high end tight end to low end tight end one.

20:58Dave Helman: But even he ended up being better than we thought he was going to be. It was just like every single part of that offense, including the play call. Obviously, I think if anything, thing too we probably underrated how serious it was going to be going from ryan grubb who was like just clearly not a pro play caller to even just average nfl level capable play calling that we

21:19Robert Mays: got from kubiak there's no doubt and we've reckoned with this like this one specifically

21:23Derrik Klassen: is when we talked a lot about early in the season well when you set fire through the entire nfl over the last six weeks in route to the super bowl we yeah you wind up talking a lot about this is

21:33Robert Mays: something, Derek, we were talking about this after they beat the Steelers in week two, where I was just like, oh, we were wrong. We were just like wrong about what the Seahawks offense was going to be. And you talking about all of those different elements, I had them as the worst supporting cast in the NFC when we did that show. I think it's just a combination of a lot of questions in the pass catchers, like two through five, a play caller that we've seen do it twice, but in kind of unique circumstances. And then the offensive line, well, I think they're going to be better the personnel is not very good or mostly question marks i had the seahawks at 16 oh which that's harsher than it seems those four teams at the bottom those were all grouped together there was like one tier and they were in that bottom tier and it was just very clear very quickly that was incorrect for all of the reasons that you said every single coin flip proposition associated with the Seattle Seahawks offense went their way.

22:31Robert Mays: And it was clear very early that was going to happen. Darnold was better. I mean, and this is, Darnold is playing in the supporting cast, but JSN going from ASC a number one receiver to offensive player of the year and the offensive line, the tackle staying healthy, Gray's able being good right away. And Derek, I think the most important part of that is, is the Kubiak part of it. And we talked about it with the Raiders and how you have one of these offensive systems that just completely bottoms out, going from one of those, which Seattle kind of had in 2024, to one where it's all just tied together in a way that makes so much more sense.

23:06Robert Mays: You raise the floor. That was, I thought that might happen. And I think one of the reasons they sought out Kubiak in that role is because you go from an offensive system with Grubb where the run and pass game have nothing to do with one another to an offensive system where that's literally the point. And you are going to see the benefits of that. I thought the structure would give them a higher floor. Watching Kubiak be the play caller that he was, I just don't think I could have anticipated that based off one season in Minnesota that was fine and then a couple games in New Orleans before it all kind of went off the rails.

23:41Robert Mays: And so everything about the Seahawks' offensive ecosystem last year was the best version of itself in a way I did not account for heading into the season.

23:51Derrik Klassen: Am I coping a little bit if I still say like some of that stuff did show itself over the whole totality of the season you know like it wasn't always great for the offense is all I'm trying to say it wasn't always great but it was

24:03Robert Mays: significantly better every one I thought it was going to be absolutely the last point on this is just like and I will say it again I you can't the two years previous in terms of like how Geno Smith played I watched those games he played well he played well and then he didn't and it's sometimes that's just kind of how it goes. And it doesn't there. We don't have to retcon what the 2023 and 2024 seasons were because he played like garbage in 2025. I'm just not going to allow that to happen.

24:34Dave Helman: No, neither am I. And also, listen, this is not to take anything away from Sam Darnold. I think he has clearly proven himself as like a pretty solid NFL quarterback. I don't think Sam Darnold would have looked good in Las Vegas either behind that offensive line. It was some of the weapons that they were doing, the way the offense was running. And so maybe, you know, Smith never gets back to those heights. And like, you know, obviously he's an older player. And that was probably part of the calculation of those two quarterback swaps that I missed where like, I probably did not foresee that the Geno Smith cliff was potentially coming physically the way that it did a little bit last year.

25:03Dave Helman: Whereas that's obviously not on the horizon for Sam Darnold because he's much younger. But I, Geno Smith, those two years was a very good NFL quarterback.

25:12Robert Mays: If I'm, if I'm defending myself one more time here, if you go back and you listen to that first show that you and I did, Derek, when they traded for Sam Darnold, I at least presented the idea that if the level of play was similar between them, you are getting potentially cheaper at quarterback and you are getting much younger at quarterback. And so by going to Sam Darnold, do you give yourself a runway as an organization, even if we think the talent level is a lateral move that you would not have had with Geno Smith? And that's exactly what happened. Like, that's exactly the off ramp that the Seahawks found themselves in.

25:45Robert Mays: Not only do they win the Super Bowl, now they have a guy in Darnold who is 28 years old and you have him hopefully for the foreseeable future. So, all right, before we move on, let's take our first quick break.

25:58Dave Helman: So summer's just about here. And my older daughter, she just turned five. She keeps asking my wife and I, when are we going on vacation? When are we going on vacation? When are we going on vacation? She knows we're going on vacation. She doesn't know the exact details. She also doesn't know that it already has been planned. It's a great question by her and she's going to get to find out soon enough exactly when and where we are going. As my wife and I were planning that, you think about the fun things. Where are you going to go? What are you going to do? What sort of memories are you going to make with your kids?

26:23Dave Helman: All of that. Don't necessarily always want to think about the finances of it, but you have to because that is a necessary element in all of this planning. Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything. Accounts, investments, saving goals, and spending. Get your first year of Monarch for half off, just$50 with promo code athletic football. Most apps only tell you what you've already spent. Monarch helps set goals, map out big purchases, and see if you're actually on track before it's too late to adjust. They also have a great bill split feature. You can split the check without the headache, just scan the receipt.

26:52Dave Helman: Everyone claims what they got and then settles up. No separate app needed. Use code athleticfootballatmonarch.com to get your first year half off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at monarch.com with the code athleticfootball. Look, I'm a sports media guy, and so that means I've got, I don't know, 20, 30 hoodies in my closet. They all serve a purpose, but I want that one that I'm just going to live in. really living on the couch, on a plane, out for a hike, playing with my kids, whatever the case might be, that's the one that I'm looking for. And I finally found one with Paka. Paka makes outdoor and lifestyle apparel from alpaca fiber, one of the world's most sustainable natural fibers.

27:31Dave Helman: Their best-selling hoodie is softer than cashmere, warmer than wool, and breathable. The hoodie is built for real life, thermoregulating, odor-resistant, durable, and made to last. Each one is made start to finish in Peru and features an Inca ID that's hand woven by artisans, honoring generations of knowledge and traditions and connecting you closer to where your clothing comes from. Over 250 ,000 people have picked up the pack of hoodie. What makes it even better? It's what I said off the top of this ad. The fact that you can wear it really wherever you want to go. It doesn't matter what you're doing.

28:01Dave Helman: The pack of hoodie is going to be a hoodie that you reach for when you reach for over and over and over again. If you've been thinking up leveling your hoodie game, this is your sign to do it. To grab your pack of hoodie, go to www.packaapparel.com. That's www.packaapparel.com. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Life is a journey. Some days feel good and others can feel overwhelming. Whatever's keeping you up at night, it's easy to feel like you have to figure it all out on your own. But the truth is, no one has all the answers. And no journey should be taken alone. Having someone with you to listen, to understand, and to support you can make all the difference.

28:44Dave Helman: May is Mental Health Awareness Month, and it's as good an opportunity as ever to check in with yourself and understand where you are right now. BetterHelp therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the U.S. BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences, and their 12-plus years of experience and industry-leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations.

29:13Dave Helman: With more than 30 ,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served more than 6 million people globally. And it works with an average rating of 4.9 out of 5 for a live session based on more than 1.7 million client reviews. You don't have to be on this journey alone. Find support and have someone with you in therapy. Sign up and get 10 % off at BetterHelp.com slash Maze. That's better. H-E-L-P dot com slash maze.

29:44Robert Mays: All right, let's stick with the quarterback takes here. Derek, how do you want to frame this Spencer Rattler situation? Because you I remember distinctly you being just wholly uninterested in them moving to Tyler Shuck because you had enjoyed what Rattler had done so far over the course of the season.

30:04Derrik Klassen: It feels only right that we check in on the Saints quarterback situation, which very much feels like a storyline worth paying attention to for better or for worse. The Rattler is winning that job, man.

30:17Robert Mays: Is it your lack of enthusiasm about the shuck thing? Is it thinking they were going to be the same? Is it thinking that Rattler would be definitively better? Like, what do you most regret about the way that you saw the Saints quarterback situation last year?

30:29Dave Helman: I I think it was kind of just like I think Spencer Rattler like is also an NFL starting quarterback and like Shuck was was fine and like he was more exciting down the stretch and he's more talented physically not necessarily in terms of our talent but he's obviously bigger and a better athlete and so there's more excitement factor in terms of Shuck there but I think for me with Rattler I just think that he's a little bit more willing to make very aggressive throws that I liked and Chuck showed some of that, but I just I liked the way that he was playing quarterback, especially early on. I also it's like you never know how this is going to turn out.

31:03Dave Helman: But like Chuck in the preseason just did not look capable at all to me. And I when I part of why I was saying like Rattler needs to hold the job early is like Chuck clearly just was not ready to me, which proves to be the case. He didn't have the job for the first seven, eight weeks of the season. I think the other part of this is that when we get to the end of the season, I'm going to cope a little bit. But Shuck obviously did have a pretty good stretch towards the last like six, seven weeks when he really started to turn things on. I think two things were also true in tandem with him playing well and showing some good flashes, especially as a scrambler that Rattler was never going to have.

31:37Dave Helman: The defense was significantly better. The Saints defense for the first like two months of the season was average at best. And then by the end, down the stretch, they were a top five, six defense in terms of EPA per play. So that is going to help a little bit. But the offensive line, I think, also came together. Like, this was a very young unit. You had guys switching spots. Kelvin Banks was obviously being inserted into the lineup at the left tackle. And I think early on in the season, there were some ups and downs, some ebbs and flows. And by the end of the year, it was a unit that really came together well.

32:06Dave Helman: And so I'm not sure that Spencer Rattler would have played better than Tyler Shuck if he had been the starting quarterback in week 14, 15. I think, you know, there were some high-end moments, especially towards the end of the games. Like the end of the end of game play that Shuck made against the Bucks where he's like scrambling and running around. Like, I love Spencer Rattler. He's probably not making that play. But there is still part of me that believes that, like, if I've got to rank the 32 quarterbacks in the league, like Rattler makes his way in there. And I would probably like to see him get a job at some point.

32:35Derrik Klassen: All I heard right there was if Tyler Shuck cements himself as the Saints starter, Derek's going to be pouting the table for Spencer Rattler to be trade bait somewhere else. I think he's not now. Yes. Like, is Tyler Shook so entrenched there that you would want to do that if you were the Saints? Probably not.

32:56Dave Helman: I think that's a good way to frame it. Like, there's reason to be excited, but there's reason to be excited, but he was not, like, excellent or anything like that.

33:04Derrik Klassen: I'm not ready to burn the boats if I'm the Saints. Like, that's, I mean, and I don't mean that as a way of shitting on Tyler Shook, but, like, why would you get rid of two possible options before you had to?

33:15Robert Mays: I think that's fair. I also think that, you know, is there who the team out there that'd be willing to give you anything? Nobody really wants him right now anyway. Yeah. I mean, if you're selling for pennies on the dollar, that's probably not worth it. I was going to frame it this way, and I think this is an incorrect thing to do. And I think this is part of what got us in trouble last year with the Saints quarterback situation. I was going to say, if you're moving from Tyler Shuck to Spencer Rattler this year for any reason other than injury, the season is so lost anyway that it doesn't really matter.

33:44Robert Mays: But maybe that's not true. Like maybe the rest of the team is good enough. You can stay competitive if you have Rattler. Like I don't want to be flippant and dismissive. And I think in the moment, I was a little bit flippant and dismissive of what Shuck could be. It was kind of a, and does it really matter who's playing quarterback for the Saints? And the answer was yes, it absolutely did matter who was playing quarterback for the Saints. And even the process of him ending up there, you had a lot of questions about whether that was the right process with Shuck.

34:12Derrik Klassen: If you draft a quarterback in the first round, And all you got out of Tyler Shuck was six starts in which you won one game in his rookie year. And the rest of it is just a super expensive insurance policy. It's not the end of the world, but I don't think it's good process. I've tried my best to own it since halfway through last season, but it's worth repeating. I mean, it just goes to show how valuable quarterback really is. And I think my thing with Shuck is, and we talked about this in the lead up to this draft, we are in an era where if you're worth taking a shot on at all, you get overdrafted.

34:55Derrik Klassen: I mean, Ty Simpson, who we had so many questions about, was a top 15 pick. Like the age of the 40th overall pick at quarterback, it's typically not a thing. And so independent of my own opinion of Tyler Shuck, when I see him fall to pick 40, it's just like, well, if he's not good enough to go higher than this, is it really worth it? And I think the answer is if there's any chance that you might be right, it's probably worth throwing the dart. And I'm not ready to get all the way there. And like, I firmly own that the Saints are well within their right to do this. And it was a good decision. That part's fine.

35:35Derrik Klassen: I'm not ready to just assume Tyler Shook is that guy yet. But even if he's not, it was worth the dart throw. If you have a chance at finding this guy. And it's funny because the guy drafted 40th overall the year before Tyler was Cooper DeGene, who we like, he's this phenomenal, versatile player. I think I even said that last year during training camp where it's like, this could be Cooper DeGene. This could be a guy that could do this, that, and the other. And maybe Tyler Shuck doesn't work out. And maybe four years from now, you revisit that. But like, if there's even a shot that he could fulfill that goal and be a long-term quarterback for you, it's absolutely worth it.

36:18Derrik Klassen: And for every Cooper DeGene that gets drafted 40th overall, I'll go find you 10 more who didn't do anything more for their team or like didn't have a significant role. So why not take the gamble? I think I just got caught up in the idea of like, well, if he was really that good, he wouldn't have even been there for you at 40 in the first place.

36:36Robert Mays: I think if you're a team that doesn't have an answer at quarterback, continuing to take the dice rolls is a worthwhile way to approach it. There are lines, right? And I think it's about what kind of quarterback prospect are we actually talking about here? And Tyler Shuck was always somebody that could he sneak into the back half of the first round? Would he be an early second round pick? I'd be curious what Derek would feel about this, but I think Tyler Shuck clears the bar when it comes to there's a world where you can imagine him being a starting quarterback in the NFL based on what level of prospect that he is.

37:06Robert Mays: And if that type of guy is available to you in the second round and you don't have an answer at quarterback, it's probably worth rolling the dice on a player like that. if it's Carson Beck 65th overall, does he fall below the line in a way where maybe that's not the best use of draft resources? And I'm trying to like pick and choose which apply and which don't here, but there does probably have to be a line.

37:26Derrik Klassen: I don't particularly like Carson Beck as a prospect. I don't think I would have done that, but I'm trying to be less flippant about the idea because of what just happened.

37:37Robert Mays: And I think that's right. I think it's worth kind of changing the way that you see that for that exact reason. What were you going to say, Derek?

37:42Dave Helman: Well, and so I think that's important, too, because like a lot of what I was saying, again, I thought Shuck was not good in the preseason, but I thought as a prospect, he was above that line. Like, yeah, I think he's a pretty talented thrower. He's obviously big. He's a pretty good athlete. He's more of we've talked about it a little bit before. He's more of like the he's more of an athlete than a guy who actually scrambles. But the talent to do it is clearly there. And so I thought he cleared that bar in terms of a guy that you could draft there. He was just a weird prospect because it's like the reasons he falls are that he was older and was hurt all of the time in college.

38:15Dave Helman: And you just weren't sure how some of that stuff was going to translate into the NFL or what the ceiling was. But it was like if you just cut on the tape and looked at some of the tools, it's like, yeah, that is a quarterback that probably does go top 50 and has a shot at being a starter every time. And so I think I didn't really hate the process necessarily, or at least I don't think that I did. but to me it was more just like I do think that Rattler can be like a pretty solid NFL quarterback.

38:40Derrik Klassen: The other thing I would bring up too and it was impossible to know this at this time last year but look a little bit harder than just at the quarterback because if Tali Yusufuaga and Kelvin Banks are playing well that's going to make anybody look better and and I think that is what's happening in New Orleans is that I feel pretty good about both of these tackles and the resources that they have on their offensive line, that's going to help a quarterback. It doesn't have to all be about Tyler Shuck or Spencer Rattler.

39:10Robert Mays: Let's get to my next one here. Speaking of teams that are rookie quarterbacks last year, both you and I picked the Tennessee Titans to make the playoffs last season. Thanks.

39:17Derrik Klassen: Thanks for bringing that up.

39:18Robert Mays: So that happened. That did happen. I'll take this in two different chunks. One, I think I picked them to make the playoffs because it's fun to have one random team you throw in there just to differentiate things and make things fun. And the Titans happen to be that team. So the idea that like, I don't think I said it with my chest that the Titans would be a playoff team. I think this for the sake of content, they were thrown in as the fun team. Yeah, nobody there's a fun team.

39:40Derrik Klassen: Nobody likes inside baseball bullshit. But if you are expected to predict the NFL postseason field and we know that there's almost always going to be 40 to 50 percent turnover, you got to find a team that's not supposed to be there. Like, I mean, if you want to pick the same seven teams from the year before, go ahead. but A, it's boring, and B, you're probably going to be wrong. So the Titans were definitely a dart throw, but I did halfway believe it, and my takeaway is just like, you can't will it to happen just because you like a player, and in this case, I just really like Cam Ward, and I'm fighting against it right now where I'm reluctant to buy in on what the Titans have done this offseason because I don't want to fall for the banana in the tailpipe.

40:24Robert Mays: I'll give you two very easy reasons why the Titans were my team. I mean, it's like, I just throw them on the pile. One, we just saw if you're trying to like, all right, what worked the year before? What has worked? Which teams come out of nowhere? The Jane Daniels just did it right the year before in Washington, where you had a rookie quarterback come in and that team just felt entirely different because of that rookie quarterback. And so I think that was part of it. But for me, more than the quarterback, I looked at that division specifically. And I looked at the offensive line that the Titans would potentially have with, and Dan Moore is like, whatever.

40:56Robert Mays: but to get potentially average left tackle play, Skaransky had really come on in the back half of that prior year. Lloyd Cushenberry was coming back from injury. You're moving J.C. Latham back to right tackle. You sign Kevin Zeitler. You hire Bill Callahan. My thought was if teams can outperform what we expect of them because the offensive line raises the floor in a way that we didn't necessarily expect, are the Titans that team? And I remember saying to somebody last year, could you make a case in the best case scenario that the Titans would have the best offensive line in the NFC South or in the AFC South.

41:29Robert Mays: I think you could have made that argument if things had gone correctly for them. It didn't happen. Like Bill Callahan was not that difference maker that we expected. Dan Moore did not play as well as he did in Pittsburgh the previous year. Lloyd Cushenberry never came back from injury. JC Latham was banged up early in the season. Like every promise of what the best version of the Titans offensive line looked like, we never even got close to that thing. And considering most of my optimism about them was built on that idea, the optimism got yanked away pretty quickly.

42:01Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I think I was out by like week four.

42:04Robert Mays: Yes, maybe even quicker than that.

42:06Derrik Klassen: They played well against the Rams in week two, and that gave me hope. And two weeks later, it was all gone.

42:12Dave Helman: Like with Jaden Daniels, it's like that Washington offense wasn't perfect. But one, like Cliff Kingsbury was calling an offense that was very they were kind of a unique beast in terms of some of the hurry up, no huddle stuff. And so that helped them a little bit. And then also, like, again, it wasn't a super loaded skill set. But like you had Terry McLaurin, who nobody was playing at nearly that level on the Titans offense. And so it just all that stuff.

42:35Robert Mays: Kelvin Ridley could add a pulse and then he didn't.

42:37Dave Helman: And he just didn't. It just never came together. And like we it was like, oh, maybe some of these these rookie wide receivers will be nice for the Titans. And like they had flashes and like DK was a good returner, but none of them were like serious, like immediate contributors in terms of offensive guys. Like none of the promise really came to be, even if I know Ward statistically was bad, but like Ward played relatively well for a rookie quarterback.

43:00Robert Mays: Yeah, I think that, again, the offensive line was just never what I expected they might be if things were right for them. And then I also just underestimated how good some of the other situations in the AFC would be. Like with the Jags, always imagined that they could be really good with Liam Cohen based on what he had done in Tampa the previous year. But I wasn't sure. I mean, a first year head coach, who knows how that's going to go. And then with the Colts, I just we talked about the Colts, Derek. I remember having this discussion during the supporting cast show, and I think I had them like seventh or eighth.

43:31Robert Mays: questions along the offensive line and just some lingering doubt about whether or not this is a definitively good offensive ecosystem independent of the quarterback is why I have them a little bit lower and it was for a few different reasons one they're swipping out multiple new starters on the offensive line right so I mean obviously uh Wolf Rye's been hurt the previous year but uh you know Goncalves is going to a full-time starting role after starting 10 games the previous year, Bordellini stepping in for Ryan Kelly. It's like, what is this going to look like? Turns out about as good as it possibly could have swapping out multiple new starters along the offensive line.

44:08Robert Mays: And I think Shane Steichen just was more of a difference maker as a play caller than I expected him to be. And so by underrating, I think the, what the environmental aspects of the Colts and Jags offenses looked like, I built in a little bit more wiggle room for the Titans to win an NFC South that ended up becoming a much better division than I had expected.

44:32Derrik Klassen: I was going to bring that up tangentially, and I'm not trying to say they're going to be the toughest division in football this year, but the AFC South looks like a meat grinder, and when was the last time you felt that way going in? Like, the Titans can't be worse, right? Like, I know we said that last year. I know, I know. I don't think the Titans can be worse. The Jags and Texans, obviously, you have tons of reasons for optimism. the Colts are going to hinge pretty heavily on Daniel Jones, but this, this, this looks like it's going to be a tough division to win. And I don't, I don't feel like I felt that way about the AFC South very often recently.

45:08Robert Mays: Sticking with playoff team regrets. I, as much as I regret putting the Titans in again, that's just something that sometimes you'll do something random and fun, but heading into the year, I regret just penciling the commanders in as a playoff team last year. I regret it. They're, They were clearly a team that was destined for regression. You know, the injuries, there's no way you can bake that in. But I think there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical about what Washington would be as like a playoff-ready team in 2025, even if they had stayed healthy. And I think too often in these moments, again, like pulling behind the curtain maybe more than we need to, when a team makes the playoffs and they were good, you don't want to be the guy who's just like, no, they're not as good as you think they are.

45:51Robert Mays: And I think as over the last year, I'm at a place now where like, I love all of you guys. I'm not afraid of you anymore. Like, I'm just going to say the shit I want to say. And if it ends up being wrong, it ends up being wrong. Like if commanders fans have a problem with it, like, sorry guys, I just stick to your guns. Like, don't do not be afraid of like the downside of, I can't believe you weren't the guy who believed this was going to be a playoff team. Again. It's like, eh, there's really nothing to fear. Like to be less afraid in your willingness to stand by that stuff. Kevin, someone's going to yell at you.

46:22Derrik Klassen: I'm sorry.

46:23Robert Mays: Yeah, somebody's going to yell. There's 32 NFL teams.

46:26Derrik Klassen: Don't be afraid of the people yelling at you. That's actually, that's, I love that because Derek and I were pretty firmly out on the commanders, but we still wound up putting them at the table, right? Yes. But, and so like, I probably, I wasn't willing to be like, no, I don't think this team is good. Because again, I just don't want to catch hell from commanders fans for two months before we start playing the games. But you're right. Who gives a shit?

46:50Robert Mays: But I think we all need to be willing to embrace that a little bit more. As I say, as we go through all the stupid shit we said from last year, Derek, how do you feel about the optimism you had about the Titans defense last year? Because there was a decent amount of it coming from you.

47:03Dave Helman: That one was tough, man. I thought that defense could be. I don't know exactly how high I probably said that they could be, but like they were a team where to me, if you looked at the depth chart, it was not that sexy and it's not like their stats in 2024 were even that great but to me if you watch them down like the back half of the 24 24 season it was like man I feel like Denard Wilson is calling like a really interesting defense he's doing a lot of the stuff that all these other like fancy play callers that we talk about like the Mike McDonald's and the and guys like that Jesse Minter are doing I think he was doing a lot of that stuff and they had enough star like not enough star players but like one or two guys where I was like, I can hinge some excitement on here.

47:46Dave Helman: Obviously, Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best in the league at what he does. Tavondra Sweat, I thought, had played really well as a rookie. Cedric Gray had shown a little bit of lashes. And so me going in, it was like, okay, if the front is as good as I think it is at the defensive tackle position, Gray can maybe take a step. And then on the edge, they obviously needed help, but there was something about, and I think this is actually the mistake that I made. The fact to me that they had an identity on the edge to me, I was like, ooh, that means something and that's good. Where it was Draymond Jones, Oladejo, Jihad Ward.

48:17Dave Helman: It was a lot of these like kind of guys who can like set the edge and like crush the pocket and stuff. And I was like, because they know what they are, it means it might be good. And it turns out other than Draymond Jones, just none of them were really good enough to make any sort of difference. And then the other thing that really like set it all the way over top into garbage fire mode, the secondary was horrible.

48:40Robert Mays: It was awful.

48:41Dave Helman: I mean, it's not as bad as it could get. It was so bad. Like none of the corners could. It's not even just that the corners couldn't cover. They couldn't run. Like they were just getting beat down the field on deep crossers, posts, anything like that all the time. And even the safeties, like I thought there were decent moments from like Xavier Woods and Amani Hooker. But most of that stuff was like down in the box and then being like buzz defenders. It was not like this sideline to sideline range. They were just a team that in the back end was too slow and off the edge did not have enough juice.

49:14Dave Helman: And I just like wholly miscalculated all that stuff going in.

49:19Robert Mays: It sounds like you think this is mostly rooted in personnel and you're going to find yourself getting very excited about Denard Wilson on like August 15th this year in New York.

49:28Dave Helman: Kind of think I might.

49:29Derrik Klassen: I kind of think I might. when I saw this take in the rundown, I was like, okay, Derek might regret the Titans defense specifically, but I'm positive he's still in on Denard Wilson, as am I for the record.

49:41Robert Mays: Yeah, I feel like that's where I land as well. I'm excited to see what he can do with not a bunch of purely edge setting pass. Well, that's the funniest thing too, right?

49:52Dave Helman: Going from these like all these guys who are like hulking edge setters, and now it's just like race cars, just Ferraris. Just see what happens.

49:59Robert Mays: All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break.

50:26Dave Helman: Can't go wrong with a ready-to-heat quiche Lorraine, deviled eggs, and fresh-cut fruits to go. Celebrate mom with Whole Foods Market.

50:34Derrik Klassen: The youth mental health crisis is growing, and social media is a major driver. Kids are spending up to nine hours a day on screens, often unsupervised, and studies show a direct link to anxiety, depression, and even suicidal thoughts. That's where Gab comes in. Gab offers safer phones and watches for kids with no social media, tailored to every age, offering the right tech at the right time, or tech in steps. From GPS tracking-enabled watches for younger kids to phones with parent-enabled apps for teens, each device allows kids to more safely grow their independence. Visit gab.com slash getgab and use code getgab for an exclusive offer.

51:15Derrik Klassen: That's G-A-B-B dot com forward slash get Gab. Gab. Tech in steps. Independence for them. Peace of mind for parents. One second, you're enjoying your day off. The next, your phone buzzes. A window's been broken at home. You're miles away. In one second, everything can change. That's why ADT's professionally installed security systems monitor your home 24-7. They're backed by the most company-operated monitoring systems in the industry, so you're always supported during an emergency. When every second counts, count on ADT. Visit ADT.com to learn more.

51:58Robert Mays: All right, Dave, let's get to another one of yours. This isn't really as much a take as it is a stance that I feel like you were the firmest on, and it got all three of us in trouble, but you refusing to even acknowledge the idea that the Chiefs should be off the table when they were five and five.

52:16Derrik Klassen: Find somebody else. Find somebody else to write the Chiefs off on November 19th. It's not going to be me. I'm perfectly comfortable not having a firm rationale on the Chiefs. I regret the fact that we were as steadfast in that as we were. I have no regrets at all. I don't give a shit. I'll do it again. I won't do it again, actually. That's so I was going to say, if you do it again, I am not going to sit here and take it the next time. OK, but here's the difference. I won't do it again because I've seen it now. I've seen it happen. Like last year, you're arguing like, well, the sun might rise in the West today.

52:53Derrik Klassen: I'm like, why would that happen? The sun rises in the East every day. It's always done that. What the hell are we talking about?

53:00Robert Mays: Collectively, we gave way too much benefit of the doubt to the teams with the quarterbacks last year. You collectively. Okay, we have to recalibrate a little bit. Let's leave.

53:09Dave Helman: We've done that since like the dawn of time.

53:11Robert Mays: Yes. And is it time to recalibrate?

53:14Derrik Klassen: First of all, that default way of thinking about it. Let's leave the Ravens and the Bills and the Bengals to the side for a minute. Okay, that's a separate conversation. The Chiefs played in the AFC championship game for seven straight years. That is the definition of earning the benefit of the doubt. That is the definition of like, I'll be the last guy off the sinking ship. And that's OK. I have I really don't have any regrets about that. I was wrong. And we can recalibrate now. We can say, all right, the Chiefs are a normal NFL team. They can't always pull out of the nosedive. They lost enough personnel and had enough issues and needed some new ideas to the point where they're not the Chiefs anymore.

53:57Derrik Klassen: If I was late to that, I don't really care. They were in the AFC title game seven straight times. I have that right. 18, 19, 21, two, three, four. Yeah, I have no regrets. It finally blew up, but I'm not really, I don't feel that bad about it. I will say I won't do it again because now we have a new frame of reference and a new data point that says, okay, you're not completely infallible. I really, I don't have a problem with the way that played out personally, but I'll, I'll try not to give them that much benefit of the doubt this year.

54:31Robert Mays: I think there are two problems with it.

54:33Derrik Klassen: I don't think that'll be hard given that Patrick Mahomes isn't even fully healthy right now.

54:37Robert Mays: I think we probably should have seen the writing on the wall quicker and more firmly than we did. I think giving them that level of the benefit of the doubt probably because it wasn't as if they, it was like a down and AFC where they still had like a very clear path to the playoffs, like a thousand things needed to go right for them to be that team eventually. And I think that even in the moment, it was probably far-fetched to see them becoming that team again. The other thing that, and this is just for like content reasons, we can't just keep the teams at the table that have the good quarterbacks that we thought were going to be good.

55:11Robert Mays: Like we just shouldn't do that. It just, it makes the entire exercise so much less interesting. And we'll figure out what the rules should look like in order to help with that.

55:21Derrik Klassen: That's the issue is we have that awful rule, in my opinion. I didn't like it from the jump where once you take a team off,

55:27Robert Mays: you can't put them back. And we don't have to decide on this now. Maybe you get one where the team gets to come back. But the entire point of the exercise is the stakes are high enough to make the discussions worthwhile. If you can just put teams back off and on willy-nilly, then what's the point of doing it?

55:43Derrik Klassen: But if you can't put a team back on, then you have to, like how do you calibrate for slumps and injuries and things that can be corrected over time?

55:52Robert Mays: Maybe we just have to do it later in the season. Maybe like, maybe you cut down the team later in the season.

55:56Derrik Klassen: It's like, you know, by November 15th, we've got enough data to feel good about this. Because we probably did it mid-season and that was probably too early. We technically, we create, oh, you mean cutting it down? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Maybe that is the answer.

56:10Robert Mays: We should create it. I mean, there were people in the Discord today that were like, everyone should be on the table. One of my favorite things we did last year was the initial conversation about creating the table. Like, I'm not, we're not starting and then paring it down. Like this is still like we're still creating a product here. Yeah, I definitely want to do that show again. But there are little tweaks that we can make to the rules to make the conversations more compelling. Because the idea of like, and the Chiefs are on until they're actually eliminated from the playoffs. I can understand people listening to that being like, that's bullshit because it was fucking bullshit.

56:40Derrik Klassen: I mean, if you if you have a problem with it, come up with a team that can make the AFC title game seven straight years. I really like I don't feel bad about that at all. like like a Jags fan is like what the hell like why do you like the Chiefs so much uh because they won all the Super Bowls well I mean I think we took it too far we might have taken it too far

57:00Dave Helman: but I don't regret it I really don't think maybe it was too far when they were like six and eight like right before Mahomes was fully out like I think maybe the fact that it stretched that far but when they were five and five it's like that's even in the middle of the season they have Patrick Mahomes they're probably fine I also I think the thing with the quarterbacks and the ones who have been really good and giving them a little bit of the benefit of the doubt. I think two things are true. I think giving a little bit more credence to the quality of a team's defense than we might have five or ten years ago, where I was saying, I think five or ten years ago, we could have just been like, elite offense, f*** it, they're good, they can get there.

57:36Dave Helman: I think that is maybe slightly less true now. I still do think, though, that in a majority of cases, I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to the guys who are MVP caliber quarterbacks, even if the rest of the team is a little bit imperfect. And I think it's more likely that this year was just a weird year than it is that like the elite quarterback is not always going to take you as far as, as you think that you are going to go. Because like on the NFC side, it took one of the best defenses we've ever seen with the Seattle Seahawks. And then on, on the AFC side, it took a weird and weak AFC bracket.

58:08Dave Helman: And then like, I think Drake may is just one of those guys. And so I know it's early to say that, But like, I think he is just in that caliber of player.

58:16Derrik Klassen: I remember talking about this right after the Super Bowl, though. I love and you're right. I mean, if you don't have one of those quarterbacks, you have to amass a lot of talent. But it's two years in a row now where Jalen Hurts and Sam Donald are both good quarterbacks. But where are you stacking them in the league hierarchy? I know the people on this show at best, you would say 10 like fringe top 10, maybe somewhere down around 12, 13. they're perfectly good players but it is it's great for content that we are seeing these builds of teams win the Super Bowl I think it should give everyone in the league so much optimism about their team because I got so bored there for a while where it was like well if you don't have one of the four guys what are we even doing this for and it's just not true I mean it you have to you got to jump through more hoops and meet more criteria if you don't have one of those guys but but it's doable.

59:12Derrik Klassen: And I don't want to hear any excuses as to why it's not.

59:15Robert Mays: Two things. I think Derek's point about the defenses is a very good one because for me, I think the team that I have in mind, and I remember vividly, I remember where I was sitting when I did this show, it was me and Kevin Clark. And I was heading into the 2018 season. And we were picking all the teams that could make the playoff or win the Superbowl. And I was like, the saints can't win the Superbowl. Like it was 2017. Excuse me. It's 2017 season. No, the saints cannot win the Superbowl. Like their defense is not nearly good enough for them to win the Super Bowl. And then the 2017 Saints happened.

59:45Robert Mays: And so in that team just looms large in my mind when it comes to, all right, if the offense is good enough, you some things can go right and get your defense to a certain place. But the 2017 era of the NFL was very different than the current era is when it comes to the quality of defenses that we were seeing, how much further ahead offenses are than defenses. And so I think the quality of the defense, like Derek said, absolutely should be more of a consideration holistically when we're thinking about what a team can accomplish. Two, I'm not saying that giving the benefit of the doubt to the quarterbacks at the end of the day is wrong.

1:00:21Robert Mays: I just think we should be interrogating it a little bit more than we often were last year. If we get to the end of the process of being like, is this the right way to do it? And we feel comfortable about why we landed with yes, fine. But I think very quickly last year, we just defaulted to it because that's what we do. And I don't think that should be the way that we approach it.

1:00:42Derrik Klassen: I'm all in favor of that because it's more interesting if we don't fixate so much on the quarterback heavy teams.

1:00:49Robert Mays: Speaking of teams that we continue to give the benefit of it out to, I coming into the season when we did the AFC supporting cast show, said the Ravens had the best non-quarterback supporting cast in the AFC based on what had happened in 2024. 24. When you combine Monken, the fact that the offensive line, when it comes to the actual results, even if on paper, they're not the best group is a very good unit. You combine it with a well-rounded group of pass catchers and oh yeah, Derek Henry plays for this team. It's pretty easy to get to a spot where the Ravens are number one. And you agreed with me, Derek, I believe, correct?

1:01:23Dave Helman: I did. And like the big, and we'll talk about this, the crux of it all was like the offensive line just exploded because because I think a lot of it you can like still get there with yourself right like I think there was plenty of reason to believe that the Todd Monk and offense would be good again I think there was plenty of reason to believe that Derrick Henry would still be good and Mark Andrews maybe not as good as he was four or five years ago but would still be nice we knew that the receiving core was like imperfect but it had enough between Zay Flowers and Rashad Bateman and stuff and I think we were all making the bet that like oh well Lamar Jackson and and Derrick Henry, they're just going to make the offensive line better and it'll be fine.

1:02:01Dave Helman: That's just what those guys do. And that was the most wrong we could have been like that. That offensive line just could not put anything together outside of outside of the left tackle position, really.

1:02:11Robert Mays: A hundred percent. And that's one of those where, I mean, I feel a little bit better about it. Listening to Eric DaCosta talk about it in his postseason press conference where he was up there at the podium just being like, yeah, I don't know why the offensive line was bad. Like, and because it was the same guys. Yes. It was the same guys as the year before. And so that's just one element of the NFL last year, like what the Ravens offensive line looked like, where you watch it unfold and it's kind of like, yeah, I don't know. Like, I don't know why it's so much worse than it was a year ago, but there's no denying that it's considerably worse.

1:02:44Derrik Klassen: I love when NFL teams do things that their fans would have them do, which in the Ravens case, Philele is gone and you're like, John Simpson, come on back. It seemed like a pretty good fit. Just let's just act like nothing ever happened.

1:02:58Robert Mays: And then they drafted a guard in the first round. And it's like, obviously, based on the way that last year went, you need to do that. But it was the same collection of players in 2023. And nobody thought that heading into the 2024 offseason or heading into last offseason.

1:03:12Derrik Klassen: It's a funny it's a multi-year lesson. I don't even know if you would call it a lesson. I just remember I remember doing a show with you before I joined the show. I was just appearing on the show and I was scared shitless of the Ravens offensive line because they had lost so much from 2023 and they didn't really miss a beat. And you're like, OK, I guess this wasn't a problem. I think that's part of what it is, too. And then it manifests itself just a year later than you thought it did.

1:03:38Dave Helman: And because what did they lose in 2025? Patrick McCary, who was like a fine role player for them. Like, that's really all that they lost. Otherwise, it was mostly the same group. And I, again, Patrick McCary is fine, but it's not like he, he turned the Jaguars offensive line to like some kick-ass unit.

1:03:56Robert Mays: Yeah, I, that's, I didn't think that would be enough for the Ravens offensive line to look distinctly different in 2025 than it did the previous year. A couple of quick ones just to throw out there. I mentioned I'm picking the commanders to make the playoffs. I regret that just from like a process perspective. I, I will say this. somebody on the discord said this today and it cut deep because it was very true i go visit 20-ish teams during training camp and every once in a while i walk out one of those buildings and i've been sold a bill of goods that i should not have bought into and it's hard man like when you

1:04:34Derrik Klassen: get facetime and you can see the conviction in people's eyes it's the it's the conviction but

1:04:39Robert Mays: But it's also when I will walk into those conversations with questions, every single like, why will this be better? Like, here were the things that held you back a little bit last year. Why are those things going to be better? And then you will get answers to those questions. And there will be times when I'm like, not good enough. Like, I'm not buying this. Like, I do not think that this is going to be better. That happens reasonably often. With the Falcons, every single question I had about like, here are the shortcomings from Panix. Here are the things that I just didn't think you guys did well enough last year.

1:05:10Robert Mays: Here are kind of the disconnects between certain elements of the offense. Every question I had came with an answer that I believed in, where it was just like, okay, like I can get behind this. And I think that the flashes from Penix in the back half of the season combined with those questions, those, the, the, their answers being satisfactory to make where some improvements could be made. I was like, all right, I believe in this. Like, I believe that this unit can be really exciting and kind of get there in a way that they couldn't necessarily in the back half of last year. And I was incorrect about that.

1:05:45Derrik Klassen: Okay, you don't need me to white knight for you. But also, you came out of training camp convinced that Will Anderson was going to be a DPOY candidate. And, I mean, look at him now. So, like, you know, you're not always wrong. Like, that's what stands out to me from your training camp visit is you were like, oh, Will Anderson is an alien. which we had an idea that was true but I mean last season was just unreal that was one where I again I think I got caught up in and I got caught up in it a little bit with the Falcons and I wish

1:06:15Robert Mays: I had not because I thought that they could be a fun offense last year and that did not happen

1:06:20Derrik Klassen: for a lot of different reasons isn't that just the Terry Fontenot era in Atlanta in general I think

1:06:25Robert Mays: that's right you Dave said that Ladd McConkie would have a 1500 yard season last year but that That was like your bold prediction, right? That was like a bold player prediction.

1:06:34Derrik Klassen: Player progression isn't always linear. And I say it all the time, but even I fall victim to it. Derek, do you want to talk about the Bo Nix one or no?

1:06:43Dave Helman: Yes, because actually this is a good one for I will absolutely do this again. I at some point, I don't know if it was going into the year what it was, but I said that Bo Nix, quote, won't get away with it again because his rookie season felt fortunate, let's say. It just felt like he was playing a style of football that for it to be as productive as it was, was kind of lucky. And then he ended up being pretty productive again in 2025. And I still watch it and I still feel like, man, he's just getting away with some nonsense. And I do not feel like that is sustainably good NFL quarterback. Notice how he said pretty productive, not like pretty good.

1:07:21Derrik Klassen: I didn't say pretty good. I said productive.

1:07:24Robert Mays: The last thought I want to touch on, because I just am not sure how to handle this. But Derek was we I think there was a lot of preseason support for what the Packers could be last year. And I don't really know where I land with that. Like, I think even before the Micah injury happens, they probably do not reach the level that we thought might be possible heading into last year. Like they were just they were frustrating. They were never like the juggernaut. They looked like in week one like that. Never at the that game in the Washington game.

1:07:56Derrik Klassen: Week one and week two.

1:07:57Robert Mays: After that, like they were never really that team again for any considerable or any sustained stretch of the season. But they were still a very good team. So I don't really know. I think we probably just as if I'm trying to like actually be honest about where I've been misguided and how I've talked about the Packers. It's that I continually am trying to build in this progress and this development from them and this trajectory that probably gives them a little bit too much benefit of the doubt. Like I think there are teams where like those kind of, again, going back to those coin flip moments of like, all right, this could go either way, which way it's going to, which way is it going to go?

1:08:37Robert Mays: There are teams where too often we default to, Oh, this is going to go the right way. Like this is going to go well for them. And I think the Packers are, if not the worst example of that, then they're near the top of that list. And I think that I can be better about that.

1:08:51Dave Helman: I think for me, it was some combination of like, I think the quarterback, the play caller, the depth of skill players, even if they didn't necessarily have stars outside of Tucker Craft, who obviously ended up being injured. And then Micah gave the team an obvious floor of like they can win any game. Like they can win any game because those guys could just make plays. But I think the offensive line we knew coming in, like they were just shuffling pieces around. They didn't really know who was going to play where. And that unit never really gelled the way that I think that they were hoping it had in previous years.

1:09:24Dave Helman: And then I think what really, at least I missed during the season, is that the defense was kind of a mirage because Micah was just making plays at the end of the game. But the rest of the defense was not that good for a lot of the year. Like their defensive tackle depth was getting picked on the cornerbacks. I think especially down the stretch of the year did not play as well as they had at certain stretches. The pass rush outside of Micah Parsons was just not very good. It's just that Parsons would make some play in the fourth quarter that was like, oh, the defense figured out and they made a play.

1:09:53Dave Helman: And it's just I think some of those factors lower their ceiling and is why they they kind of bumped up against it against the other teams that were like actual NFC like contender types.

1:10:04Derrik Klassen: going back to the linear progression thing i also think and this is several years in the making but the packers have so many highly drafted players at visible positions and every year is just trying to project who's going to make that leap and they have good players don't get me wrong i mean christian watson was phenomenal last year and and guys like devante wyatt have had moments and quay walker played well enough to get a nice deal i don't think he ever completely lived up to the draft billing but like had good moments i just think for the most part it was a lot of excitement about guys who never quite stepped into being deserving of that excitement at least for me and it's it's interesting now i mean again they still have good players but it also just felt like so many options like there were so many possibilities of guys who could step into that role and you start to lose them.

1:11:00Derrik Klassen: Quay Walker's gone. Dontavian Wicks leaves this offseason. Romeo Dobbs leaves this offseason. And so now I think they have a good baseline of talent, but it doesn't feel like a glut the way that it did in the last, I would say, like two years. And also, all of it clicking the way that it did in those playoffs after the 2023 season. Again, talk about games like that weighing heavily against somebody like Sam Darnold. I think it makes a huge impression when everybody's on their A game, dismantling the Cowboys and almost beating the 49ers in the playoffs. And that leaves a bigger impression than that.

1:11:38Derrik Klassen: That was two years ago, though. No, for sure. But haven't we been doing this with the Packers for like two years? I think that's fair to say.

1:11:43Robert Mays: Well, I think the difference last year was, and I think Derek's point about the offensive line is exactly correct, where there were elements of, and the defense too, there were elements of who the Packers had been in the 2024 season that I thought would give them a certain floor and would just carry over. Like the offensive line, they're one of those teams that we've just given the benefit of the doubt to for a very long time. We were like, even if you have some questions about the five, they'll figure it out. And that had been mostly true in the Matt Willfield era. It was not true last year. That group just did not play as well.

1:12:14Robert Mays: And then the defense, I mean, you look at what the defense did in 2024. They were sixth in points allowed in 2024. They were fourth in EPA per play. And then they added Micah Parsons. And so my thought was these elements that where we know what the floor is, if Jordan Love can be healthier and Micah Parsons comes in, does that what eventually raises the Packers ceiling? And I think those things that made up the floor, those elements of who we expected them to be, that were just kind of these consistent, reliable elements of the Packers, that those didn't come through. Like Jordan Love, I think, played well enough where if the floor of the offense had been better, maybe that happens.

1:12:50Robert Mays: Micah Parsons was good enough where if the floor of the defense had been better, maybe that happens. but I think the things we expected to be consistent and carry over just didn't really happen. And so they're one of those teams where I think that sometimes, you know, fans get annoyed when you talk about certain teams in a certain way. It's kind of like, all right guys, like we're excited about AJ Brown potentially being on the Rams because they tried to trade for AJ Brown, but the Packers thing, I could understand being a fan of another team, listening to the way that we talk about the Packers being like, these guys, this is completely unfounded.

1:13:22Derrik Klassen: So much of it is based on potential. And even though the Packers have been a good team, a really good team at times over the last couple of years, they have never met the potential ascribed to them in the preseason and really any of these years since that playoff run.

1:13:36Robert Mays: Yes. And I think we do that a lot where we expect like there is a gap between reality and potential. And I think with some teams, we just bake in that they're going to reach some version of it. With some teams, there's a little bit more skepticism. And I think, again, talk about recalibrating. I think the Packers are one of those teams where, you know what? Show me first, and then we can have the conversation. That's, again, getting back to it, like, that's not necessarily the most fun way to talk about the sport. And I think that sometimes, to give ourselves a little bit of grace here, that creeps in.

1:14:08Robert Mays: Because no one wants to tune into a podcast where it's like, well, I don't know, guys. We got to wait for the games to start, and then we'll start having conversations about all this stuff. Like, at a certain point, we're having fun. This is an entertainment medium, all of those kind of things. but I don't think bucketing it that way should prevent us from doing a little bit of self-reflection for the ways that we can be a little bit better about how we approach this kind of stuff.

1:14:31Derrik Klassen: Especially for a team that plays in arguably the deepest division in the league.

1:14:36Robert Mays: With the team that's going to win the Super Bowl this year. Yeah, of course. So that's just one of those things.

1:14:39Derrik Klassen: No flaw in that logic.

1:14:40Robert Mays: All right. Well, I'm sure that we'll say a bunch of stupid shit over the next 12 months that will populate this show. So looking forward to that. Derek, good to have you back, buddy.

1:14:49Dave Helman: It's good to be back. It's been probably the longest I've gone without recording a show here the entire time I've been here. But it was good. I didn't do a whole lot other than hit Diamond and Rainbow Six Siege, went to a brew fest, and it's kind of it. Good to be back. What a life.

1:15:06Robert Mays: I love people being like, Derek hasn't been on the show. It's like, yeah, he's on vacation, guys.

1:15:10Dave Helman: I'm gaming.

1:15:12Robert Mays: The draft is over. We can all take a little bit of time. We're not taking that much time. We will not have a show tomorrow. I said this earlier in the week. our offseason cadence Monday through Thursday. That's what we're going to be doing throughout the offseason. There are going to be a couple weeks where we only have three shows. Again, as Dave is juggling some travel associated with a pretty big event in his life, I'm going on vacation later in May. And so there will be a couple weeks where we only have three shows. But the standard for this offseason is going to be Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday with the mailbags coming on Monday.

1:15:43Robert Mays: So be on the lookout for that. We will be back on Monday with that mailbag for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. Talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:16:04Robert Mays: When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Granger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery. So you can keep your facility stocked, safe, and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.

1:16:35Derrik Klassen: It's smart to always have a few financial goals. And a really smart one you can set? Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card.

1:16:58Dave Helman: Investing with Schwab is like spending a Saturday at a great farmer's market. You can fill your reusable tote with a bit of everything. Maybe you go for some free-range, self-directed investing. Or perhaps you pick up a few farm-fresh trades while you peruse. You can even get help from a dedicated advisor. That's full-service wealth management. Mix, match, and change your mind whenever you want. Because at Schwab, you can invest your way. No matter your goals or appetite for investing, Schwab has everything you need, all in one place. Visit schwab.com to learn more.