Super Bowl LX Preview

0:29Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Patriots can find a path forward on offense against Seattle, where their explosives might need to come from, what matchup advantages does New England have, even if it doesn't seem like there are a lot of them. And then on the other side of the ball, when Seattle has the ball in this game, I think all of us agreed that was the Patriots' best path here. Can they ugly this game up? Can they get a couple turnovers, several negative plays? Can their defense, like it has all playoffs for New England, carry them in what is the biggest moment of their season? So really enjoyed this conversation with Derek and Dave.

1:00Let's get to it right now.

1:07Welcome back to the Athletic Football Show coming to you live from Radio Row in San Francisco. Gentlemen, it's about that time. We are at peak saturation right now. So I think it's time to preview this game and get it underway. What is the weirdest thing you saw today? It happened just now, and that's how I know it's time to talk about the game and get the hell out of here. Because, I mean, you see, there's football players here. There's celebrities here. There's TikTok people. But I walked in to get to the set to do the preview show, and there is a Jurassic Park dinosaur handler with, like, a lifelike velociraptor puppet.

1:45I didn't even know there's a Jurassic Park movie coming out this year. There's always a Jurassic Park movie coming out. I need to find this guy. I miss the raptor. It's a lady. There's two of them. There was a guy, and then there was a lady. The guy was petting the raptor at one point. I thought it was too in character. We want to use a method act with the animatronic raptor. I thought it was a real, I thought it was like an iguana. You thought it was a real dinosaur. I thought it was a real lizard. I thought it was a real lizard. And I walked up and I was like, no, that's a velociraptor. And then I was like, we need to talk about this game so I don't need to be on Radio Row anymore.

2:14Yeah, Thursday at Radio Row is a, it's a surreal experience every single year. You're going to see some of the weirdest shit you've ever seen in a professional space. And today was no different. Yesterday, we were the ones providing the weird shit because it was a man with the wolf costume sitting here. I was the one. Somebody else's podcast is like, this guy's dressed like Chiefsaholic. What the hell's going on? We're going to dig into this game from every angle we can possibly think of. Let's start with the bird's eye view of this and just kind of talk about how we got here. We've discussed this on so many different fronts throughout this entire season.

2:44It was a strange year. It was just a very strange season in terms of who the contenders were, which we had to wrestle with the entire year, which teams were going to be around at the end. And this is the most unlikely Super Bowl in recent memory. I think probably since I started doing this, these teams coming into the season were 60 and 80 to one to win the Super Bowl. And one of them will be the team that lifts the Lombardi Trophy at the end of this. The over-under for both of these teams was eight and a half. And so the fact that this is the end of what has been a very strange season, Derek, It feels like a Super Bowl we never could have predicted being the final points to what this year has been is fitting.

3:26Especially, too, that both teams came in with those eight and a half were probably different. Like they were there for very different reasons. With the Seahawks, it was like, well, they can grind out some wins with their defense. But, man, that conference and that division is going to be really tough. Their schedule is going to be brutal. And then with the Patriots, it was like, well, Vrabel will lift the floor a little bit. The quarterbacks were excited about him. You know, easy schedule. They should get to like eight, nine wins and we'll see if they can get there. I remember one of the first shows I did with just you, Derek, because Robert was, I think, out of town or something.

3:55But it was like way back in the summer. And we were like, I love the Patriots. I love the Patriots as a team to be better. But over eight and a half wins, like, let's pump the brakes a little bit. Like, we're not. I bet you on that show, we probably said they're not going to jump straight to the Super Bowl right away. And here they are. These are both teams that are pretty early on in new eras of the franchise. Right. And you have two teams that we talked about this yesterday. We saw these teams play in the Super Bowl 11 years ago. With Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick, Seahawks only won one Super Bowl.

4:26But the Carroll era in Seattle was a roaring success. I mean, you think about that stretch from 2011 to 2015. They were probably the best team in the league every single year during that stretch. They got a lot of DVOA banners they can hang if they want to. And then obviously we know what the Belichick era was. And so for both of these teams to have moved on from legendary mainstay coaches in the last two years, what they landed on and what the pivots are, they've both gone as well as they possibly could have. Like, could you be a Seahawks or Patriots fan and be more enthusiastic about what the early returns from the Mike McDonald and Mike Vrabel eras have been?

5:04No, you're in the Super Bowl. And I'm glad you're framing it this way. and this might just be me, but when you've seen these teams play a Super Bowl against each other in recent memory, I mean, it's still just 10 years ago, it's easy to sort of gloss over that. And I think neutral fans probably, they want to see new jerseys in the Super Bowl and just have it be a new look. And particularly on the Patriots side of this, it feels very familiar. And I wouldn't be surprised if some neutral observers said boring just because this feels familiar. failure and that that couldn't be further from the case like if you remove the fact that we've seen these teams play a Super Bowl before what a cool story for both of these teams and the way the Seahawks weren't satisfied with good and took it to great and the way the Patriots have found a way to retool and live up to the standard that they set for themselves and it's not doing it justice to just say ah we've seen this Super Bowl before and so I'm glad that we're talking about it that way.

6:01Another element of this that's different, and it's been written a couple different times. I think Sandoz said this this week, and it's going to depend on how you qualify or classify Bill Belichick. But Bill Belichick never outwardly was the defensive play caller from the Patriots, even if I think there were years where he probably was the defensive play caller, right? But this would be, if Mike McDonald wins this game, the first primary defensive play caller ever to win a Super Bowl for his team as the head coach. And Mike Vrabel is a defensive-minded head coach and so either way no matter how this game goes this will be the first time a non-bill belichick defensive head coach has won the super bowl since 2013 wow that's insane that it's the same franchise too and i think what's funny about like the entire seahawks rebuild is if you told me like as they were moving on from the pete carroll era let's say like before we knew they were going to hire mike mcdonald if you told everybody like yeah they're going to stick to defense and over the next two years they're not going to find a superstar quarterback obviously they found like an answer with Sam Darnold, but they're not going to find a superstar.

7:00But they'll also be back in the Super Bowl. I think a lot of what people would have been like, how do you stay on kind of the same track and then end up in the Super Bowl? It doesn't really make any sense. I mean, think about the paths that so many teams have been on in this era of football where it's almost like if you don't have Patrick Mahomes or if you don't win that quarterback lottery, what's even the point? Sean McVay traded away a guy that he got to a Super Bowl with. Kyle Shanahan is cycling through good but not great quarterbacks. We talk so much about, yeah, like he's good, but can you win the Super Bowl with him?

7:33And I mean, we obviously saw it with Philly last year. But even still, that's a guy that they drafted and developed. Like this is very interesting and unique for the Seahawks to bring in Sam Darnold, middle of the road contract. And this is supposed to be the guy that you're trying to get away from. And the Seahawks are like, no, we will take that. And we think we can get somewhere with you. And you're one win away from a championship. And I think from a team building perspective, you have two different things in mind there. One, the idea of a defensive minded head coach and a defensive first head coach and the viability of that all the way till the end.

8:06Because we've had guys that were defensive head coaches that have been successful. But we haven't had one that I think is kind of been a catalyst for what other franchises are seeking out in a very long time. And I think that has the potential to be the case with Mike McDonald. Like the McVay thing really starts after they go to the Super Bowl and after you have a bunch of owners watching Sean McVay in the Super Bowl. If the Seahawks win, Jesse Minter is not going to be the last guy cut from the same cloth as Mike McDonald who's going to get one of these head coaching jobs. And so I think that has a chance to kind of reshape some of the larger scale decision making in the NFL.

8:41And then you mentioned it. What happens with Darnold? Like if that That path becomes viable Where you can find this second chance guy And he can be a piece of everything else That you're building You can get it over the finish line with somebody like that It's only going to cause more teams and more franchises To seek out that sort of path If they feel like they have everything else in place And I think that's really exciting Because I've always thought it was Derivative and boring And uninspired To just reduce a quarterback to that Like, well, you can't win the Super Bowl with him. Like, he falls short in big games, and there's, like, so much more to it than that.

9:21And even if they don't win this game, like, I mean, the Seahawks are playing in it. They are evidence that this build can be wildly, wildly successful. And the conversations around the quarterbacks, we talked about this a little bit yesterday, but there are still plenty of people out there who are going to, they need to see it with Sam Darnold before they believe it, right? Which is crazy because he's coming off of probably the best game that he's ever played. But you say this all the time, do it again. I believe he can. And I think that this idea of him being a liability in some of these moments, I think he's overstated.

9:52And I absolutely think he can do it again. But if he does, then the entire discussion around Sam Darnold changes. The guy where I don't think he needs to win the Super Bowl for that discussion to already be changing. We talked about this a little before we started recording. You're interested in just what this entire run means for Drake May and kind of the equity that he is able to build up because of something like this. I think I called it plot armor. Yes. Drake May is going to have it. I mean, when you what he's 23 years old. We're recording this before NFL honors. So we right now don't know who's going to win NFL MVP.

10:25He's at least got a chance to win it. He's one of the two guys that are up for the award. So you combine a season that he's had with reaching the Super Bowl. And I think we compared him to the Joe Burrow run in 2021. Nobody remembers how much help Joe Burrow had getting to the fourth quarter of that Super Bowl. Nobody remembers the Raiders game or the Titans game. The Titans game was a miracle. It's unbelievable. They got away with that. And Drake May, not to take credit away from him. If I'm buying all the Drake May stock I can. I think his arrow is firmly pointed up. But you contend for MVP and reach a Super Bowl in year two, it's going to lift you into a different stratosphere.

11:05And I think most people have Joe Burrow as like number four or three B, depending on who you talk to. And I very much think Drake May is about to join that conversation in a big way where I think a lot of people are going to say, OK, it's it's these four and Drake May. And then we start the conversation. Ironically. Oh, my God. We did that. We did the sixth best quarterback podcast like at the start of this season. And I don't think we even mentioned Drake May because how could we how could we have known? Even you couldn't do that. Exactly. I loved him, but it was like, it was one of those things.

11:39If you had said that, we would have been like, Derek, come on. Yeah, it would have been like, come on. It was one of those things where he could get there, but you can't make that proclamation based just off his rookie season. And now, even, again, independent of the result of this game, he's going to be in the thick of those conversations when we fire up all of our favorite content ideas in the offseason. And that's, A, it's really fun, and B, it's amazing what early success can do for a guy and we already think highly of him. And now that he's just going to be in, I don't think you can say unassailable, but a very advantageous space when you're talking about the hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks.

12:16When do you think that you knew the Patriots could be playing in this game? At what point in the season were you like, OK, they are this sort of team? I think we've talked about this a lot. I think for a long part of the season, the defense was like fake. The defense was just not very good. And I truly think when they came out of their bye week, I think it was week 15, their first game out of the bye week. And they played the Bills. Some of the stuff that they were throwing on defense, I was like, all right. The offense has its flaws, but you have a potential MVP quarterback. They have enough playmakers that it's like they could reasonably score on most teams and make this run.

12:49And then the defense was starting to show life. And it was always a talented defense, right? That's why it was kind of confusing that they weren't that good early on. Like, the interior is good. And, like, the linebacker play was improved. And the corners are really good. it just kind of took them it took them three months to like get into this new vision post-buy and I think for them to go and have a game like that against Joe Brady against Josh Allen and really throw a lot of this creative stuff and kind of catch them on their heels I was like if they can do that five six more times then maybe they have it and they obviously did they did that through the rest of the regular season they did it for they did it even better for the playoffs they killed every team that they played so I really to me it was like especially the first half of that Bills game I was like all right they can do something I'm about to sound like a hater but that second Bills game coincided with the Chiefs' loss to the Chargers.

13:35And the Chiefs were, and Patrick Mahomes got hurt, and the Chiefs were eliminated from the playoffs. And I think somewhere around there, I had to have a conversation with myself where I was like, the Cavalry's not coming. If they're Ravens too, right? There are multiple different teams where it's just like, all right, this is not going to happen. They've already shown they can beat and play with the Bills. The Chiefs are not, that surge is not happening. The Ravens' surge is not happening. And right around then, Denver and New England both, you look at it and you're like, I've been writing these teams off because of who I thought was going to be rounding into form, and that's not happening.

14:07And so right around mid-December, I was like, even with their flaws, these teams are capable of doing it in large part because of who's not going to be in their way. I think pointing out the defense is a good thing to do because the offense was the most efficient dropback offense in the NFL for a good majority of the season. That happened immediately. The defense was much more of a question. And we talked a lot about Zach Corr on the show we did earlier this week about the people who have changed the discussions around them over the course of this year. And the defense showing the gear that it had down the stretch after the bye into the playoffs, they needed that type of defense.

14:40Like if the defense wasn't playing at that level, they wouldn't be here right now because of how much the offense has struggled. It's the Joe Burrow Bengals run again. That Bengals defense wasn't good early in the year, and they kind of just rounded into form at the right time at the end. When did you know about the Seahawks? Oh, man.

14:58When did I know they could get to the Super Bowl? Probably that Rams rally. Like, the second Rams game. Really? Which, like, I know that's late. I know that's late, but, like, think about how much swung. I knew they were a good team. I knew they were a good team, but think about how much that game swung things. I guess that's true. You need a lot of evidence to know that, like, Sam Darnold and the offense really can do this. And the offense spent 18 weeks proving it in different ways. I think this is a great example of the different ways we look at this. Like I said, the Seahawks looked like a monster.

15:32This is going to sound dumb. The Max Brosmer game where the defense just ate him alive and they scored 26 points without the offense doing anything, you just kind of have a moment where you're like, this defense is really special and this defense could carry them far no matter what Sam Darnold is doing. I say the Rams game because I think we talked about it in the buildup to the conference title game. let's say they don't get those two-point conversions and Rashid Shahid doesn't have that punt return we're talking about a world where you're playing for the five seed and you're potentially going to Carolina good point instead of having it all go through Seattle and only having to play two games it's very easy to imagine a world where the Rams have home field advantage so when that game flipped the way it did I knew the Seahawks were good but when that happened I was like oh shit like they could have home field advantage and be two wins away from the Super It's like two different moments, right?

16:22Like that Rams game is like the flip of like, oh, they're the favorites. And yes, like they should they should be the best team in the they went from like good team. That's going to have to go on a run to like it's all going to run through Seattle, which up until that game. I thought that would be the Rams halfway through that game. I thought it would be the Rams because like I think the first moment is to me when they I know the Texans offense has their problems. When they made CJ Stroud and that offense look like they did not belong on the field. I was like, oh, that's different. What is it for you?

16:54I was in like week two. Oh, my God. You said Pittsburgh when we talked about this. It's like when they played Pittsburgh and when the offense looked the way that it did and you felt like the offense has something to it that what their plan was, what they wanted to be, they did it. This idea of JSN is going to have to carry us, we need Sam to play well, and the structure of the offense is going to lift the floor of the offensive line. As soon as I saw that over the first two or three weeks, I was like, done. You need to sustain it. But seeing the offensive vision come to life and then knowing that the defense would be what it is.

17:32So I think early on I was a big believer in what they were trying to be. And then we've talked about this. It's a weird game because they only win the game by three. The Thursday night game they played against the Cardinals where the offense and the plan on offense and the game from Kubiak was so good, and now you get to a place where the defense is the defense. I believe in the defense before the season even started, and then they were as good or better as we even could have hoped. To watch them have a schematic and play-calling advantage on offense while the level of talent clearly was enough, like watching Sam, the explosiveness he provided them, plus JSN, that like explosive element was clear early on but to watch Kubiak in that game against Arizona and be like okay they have an offensive play caller who's going to consistently be one step ahead of the teams they play against combined with the defense they're terrified I think that it happened that early it's I think it's a really good point and it's something I mean it's so easy to gloss over September and October at this point in the year the Seahawks changed my mind about who they were probably really even though it was a loss the Tampa Bay game where just you see the offense just zipping down the field and Darnold making some of those throws and then the very next week they went to Jacksonville and just mauled it was the two poles of the Seahawks could yes yes and so I think that two game stretch was where I was like oh this is a really really good team I wasn't team I wasn't giving them enough credit it i still stand by what i said where my perception of what they were capable of winning this year flipped when they won that rams game where i was like okay this is this is more than an 11 or 12 win team that's gonna open the playoffs on the road like this is maybe the super bowl favorite all right before we move on let's take a quick break

19:27all right let's dig into the individual sides of the ball here let's start with the seahawks defense against the Patriots offense in this game. Derek, number one thing for you that you are looking for when New England has the ball in this game is what? I'm guessing based on game script, we're going to get like 40 Drake May dropbacks because I just do not really trust New England's ability to run the ball a whole lot in this game. And so I think it's going to come down to a lot of third down, a lot of how are the Seahawks manipulating pass rush lanes and stuff. And the more I look at it, the more it's hard for me to understand how New England is going to pick up some of this stuff.

20:00Like, I think against most teams, they actually pick some stuff up well, and they actually do a good job of manipulating some of their pass protection rules. Like, you know, we've talked about it with some of these Shanahan teams, is they're always just, like, sliding three to the one tech, having man on the other side, and that's kind of it. That's all they do in protection. New England will do some other stuff. Like, they'll kind of just, like, pinch down to the one tech and leave their left tackle just, like, all on an island, which is cool if you think Will Campbell can handle that. I don't know if he can do that against Demarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu, And so I think you get a little bit pinched there.

20:31And then I actually do think the way that Mike McDonald brings a lot of his pressures, manipulating the back, kind of wasting them, certain stuff like that, getting out good droppers. I know Ramondre Stevenson is a great pass protector. I feel like they're going to be on the, like Seattle is going to be on the front foot of kind of wasting him, not letting him get out because he is a good pass catcher too. You don't want to let him get out of the backfield. And I just feel like Mike McDonald is going to do a very good job of keeping him in, kind of wasting him. And now Drake Meg just kind of has to play one-on-one ball with all these receivers where the Seahawks DBs are just a lot better than the guys that they're playing against for the most part.

21:02I'm really interested to see a couple things you said that I love and I want to hit on. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots balance Travion Henderson being a playmaker with needing Ramondre Stevenson to be on the field in this game. I think they've shown you that and told you that over the course of the playoffs. Yes. Which leads me to think like Ramondre Stevenson is going to have a very busy night on Sunday. And what? He's been there third down back 90 % of the time in yardage situations that are beyond like two yards. Like if it's anything that you can't pick up with a dive or a sneak or something like that right up the middle, it's from Andre Stevenson, which I think is going to help Drake May as a passer, but potentially handicaps the explosive ability of an offense that already is kind of lacking in that area.

21:53It's just hard for me to imagine a world where, in normal personnel, the Patriots run the ball consistently in this game. The Patriots aren't a very good running team, period. They're about to play against the best-run defense in the NFL this year. The one area where I'm curious how this will play out is influenced by some of the news that we got this week. Nick Emanwari is hurt, right? And so he has a sprained ankle. Mike McDonald came out and said that today. It sounds like he is going to play. Is he 100 %? How close to 100 % is he? Does he play all the snaps? And why I think this is specifically important.

22:26We saw the Rams, they were able to line up in 13 personnel, and even if they weren't explosive on the ground, because you're going to get nickel and smaller bodies from Seattle no matter what, if you're going to put three tight ends on the field, can you grind them down a little bit and ship away four, five, six yards at a time on the ground? New England is not going to do 13 personnel stuff, but they have used a lot more jumbo in the back half of the season than they did early in the year. Per NextGen, 18.4 % of the Patriots' plays since Week 11 have been with an extra offensive lineman on the field.

22:58They did it almost 33 % of the time in the AFC Championship game. I assume that was somewhat driven by weather, game script, those sorts of considerations. That is a hard game to draw conclusions from. But we saw it 19 times total over the previous two games. And so I do think that we're going to see them try to do that and see what Seattle matches with. If Seattle matches with nickel when they're using jumbo and Emanwari isn't 100%, if you get Devin Witherspoon in the slot in some of those looks, is New England able to kind of grind the game down running the ball out of those big personnel groupings if Seattle is going to stay small?

23:36That's a small ball thing that I don't think will dictate the game, but I think the Rams were able to show you if you can run the ball a little bit, it just gives you a lot more breathing room elsewhere. How likely do you think it is that they can execute on that? I don't think they can. I don't. I just don't believe in their ability to do that. That's what Seattle wants you to do. Exactly. They want you to get into something where the best thing you can do out of Jumbo looks in the NFL right now is throw out of them against base defense. The Seahawks are not going to allow you to do that. They're daring you to run the ball out of those heavy personnel groupings.

24:07They're going to let you run the ball for 2.8 yards a carry, and they're going to put you behind the eight ball the entire game. So I think leaning on that is playing into their hands, but I still feel like you have to try to see what's available to you there, at least early in the game. That being like a first quarter, like 20 minutes, first 20 minutes of the game, like poking and prodding to see what you can get. I do think actually makes sense. I just I'm kind of with you. Like when I look at not just the offensive line personnel, but like one, they are a little bit smaller than the Rams. Like the Rams have a big offensive.

24:35Huge. Yeah. Those guys are massive. They are massive. They are built to just get double teams. And that's not necessarily how New England has built it. And to me, a lot of New England's best stuff is movement stuff. It's getting Jack Westover on the field and they're getting him out on the perimeter or they're moving some of their guards and stuff like that. And that's just I just feel like Seattle keys that stuff so well that that's going to be really difficult to do. And then even their tight ends, the Rams tight ends are massive. Like those guys are huge and long. And like I just don't know if New England has a lot of that, which to your point, like they bring on Jumbo and it kind of fixes that a little bit.

25:05But this to me feels like something they maybe can poke and prod at. But kind of to your point, like the duo get six offensive linemen on the field. That's like a slow try to matriculate down the field. They need haymakers in this game. Like I just that's the only way to play. The other thing I wanted to bring up off the way you mentioned, Derek, we talked about this throughout the playoffs. Eight and a half of the eleven and a half sacks that Will Campbell has allowed this year have come to pass rushers with thirty three and a half inch arms or longer. That checks out. That's all of Seattle's pass rushers.

25:36Except Maffay. He's the only one. Except Boye Maffay, who's 32 and three quarters inch. So, I mean, DeMarcus Lawrence, Derek Hall, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, these guys clock in like they could touch the tunnel on both sides if they want to. And that sounds like a trouble. So this is where I land on this. OK, I 100 percent agree with that. We have seen other fronts in the playoffs kick the shit out of the Patriots offensive line and ruin these games. and the Patriots have had to win very, very ugly. What reason should I have to believe that Seattle, who might have the best front among all of those teams, is not going to do the exact same thing to them?

26:15That's exactly where I'm at because I think that what makes this even more likely is some of the other teams that were kind of giving them a lot of trouble. Teams like the Chargers, teams like the Texans, all those guys, like their first wave of guys are really good, and that is obviously true of Seattle. Seattle's second wave of guys is better than every other team in the league. Like there's not going to be any room to like kind of catch a breather. And so this to me does feel like a game where they're going to get hammered a lot. And like, I think even more so than like the Texans, right? The Texans kind of just are like, we're going to rush for and that's going to kind of be it.

26:44Seattle does so much manipulating, you know, you're going to get a couple of one on ones here that maybe you wouldn't in games like that. That on top of how talented all these guys are, I just this feels like a game where they're going to get hammered pretty much across the board. Left tackle the right tackle. can I present this is one thing I think about when I when I'm looking at the Patriots offense can I talk you into Drake May hitting shots downfield against these outside corners okay so this one one more note about the pass protection that I wanted to point out because I think the stat is really telling and I think it speaks to what the Patriots have been in the playoffs versus the regular season per next gen May's been sacked 15 times this postseason that is the most of any player to reach a Super Bowl since 1970 in the playoffs.

27:27He's taken a sack on 48.4 % of his pressure dropbacks. That is double his rate from the regular season. And again, I just don't understand why that won't happen against Seattle when it's happening against all these other fronts. Their best path, if they're going to overcome this stuff, to me, like Derek said, is haymakers. You're going to need to string together four, five, six explosive plays in this game. And to their credit, even when they've relatively struggled in the playoffs, they have still been able to hit a lot of these explosives. And that includes the Texans game. And so that version of the game, I do think is possible given what we've watched over the last month, but against Seattle, how available do you think some of those explosives down the field actually are?

28:12I mean, they're going to be few and far between, but am I crazy if I kind of think they can hit them like two or three times? Can I sell you on how they're going to hit them? you're trying to sell me or I need to sell you I think I can like sell you a little bit I don't know how much I buy it but I do see the path please like I so on third down specifically I went and I wanted to go back and watch what the Patriots do on third down and when they're in third and pass it is all three by one everything is three by one and then Drake May will put the back wherever he needs and they're going to do whatever and in a lot of cases sometimes they'll use the isolated player like tight to the formation and it's a tight end so they can get a little bit of man's own tell and I do think McDaniels does a good job of that with with May but I think also a McDonald disguised so much that's going to be tricky.

28:51Where I think they can get them maybe is whoever that isolated player is, especially if he's to the field and he's got a lot to work with. You put Keyshawn Booty out there. If you can get him on Josh Jobe for four or five snaps a game. Jobe is usually the boundary corner, though. Yeah, that's a good point. But they'll do it into the boundary, too. It doesn't really matter. They do feel boundary. So Jobe is typically the boundary corner. So that's where you're going to need to have those one-on-ones for the most part. Yeah, that's a good point. Am I crazy? And again, like these are Few and far between opportunities Obviously, especially when you're dealing with that Pass rush I think you can get Job, Enrique Wollin And Devin Witherspoon So Okay, here's my hot take The guy that's done it, the Rams have done it Obviously Who else is on the podium for MVP?

29:40I mean, if this guy is If this guy is what we think he is I will hear that argument Like, oh, they can get hit by an MVP caliber quarterback. Well, guess who they're playing on Sunday? This is going to come as a surprise. I will not hear that, actually. I think Matthew Stafford is such a different thrower. So I think, and you and I have talked about this, and I think that you have articulated it in a very clear and really concise way. The Rams are uniquely positioned, in my mind, to move the ball against Seattle's defense. I think for two different reasons. One, their outside receivers are matchup advantages consistently against any outside corner duo you're probably going to play against, and that includes Seattle.

30:19Keyshawn Booty's been really nice this year for what he is. He is not Puka and Devontae Adams. No, I will recognize that flaw in my plan. When you look at the numbers that the Rams have put up or what the Seattle cornerbacks have given up, it's Puka and Devontae doing the vast majority of this damage. So here's the number on that that I wanted to come to this with. In the last two games that the Seahawks played against the Rams, in Week 16 in the playoffs, they gave up 10 passes of 20-plus air yards in those two games. From week two through the end of the season, against every other team, the Seahawks gave up 10 passes of 20-plus air yards.

30:59Pretty good. So why should I believe that the Patriots are going to have five explosives in this game? And because here's the thing to me. Drake May is a really talented thrower. Drake May is a talented thrower because, one, his shot selection is awesome. And, like, Stafford's shot selection is good, too, but he's also, like, intentionally being more aggressive than he should at times because he can get away with it. But Drake May's shot selection is really good. And I also think his touch and ability to, like, put over routes just over a guy is really nice or a corner route, whatever it is. But Stafford's ability to just put it past your ear hole or he looks at the cover two hole shot and he's like, I can do that.

31:33And Drake May can do that sometimes. You could sell me on Drake May hitting two or three of those in this game. But it took eight for Matthew Stafford to make that last game close. And I just think, and Drake May obviously balances that out a little bit. He's got so much more athleticism than Stafford does, and I do think he'll probably make four or five plays a game in that sense. That's going to need to happen. That has to happen. And so if we're trying to figure out where. Yeah, what if the lion's share of those explosives are Drake May. If I'm building the path for the Patriots offense to score enough points in this game, I still think you do need one or two downfield completions of some kind, right?

32:05You need them to happen. And they're going to take those opportunities. And so if Drake May throws, let's say Drake May has six completions of 20-plus air yards in this game. I think two of those need to be complete for the Patriots to win. And I think two more of those explosives, they're going to have five or six, need to come with him as a scrambler. And unfortunately for New England, Seattle has been very good against scrambles this year. They do not give up a lot of chunks on the ground against running quarterbacks. Because they crush the pocket. There's no air to get out anywhere because all those guys are long.

32:35They're 280 pounds, and they just kind of suffocate you. One other area where I'm just trying to figure out, like, all right, what is a spot where maybe Seattle's a little bit weaker that the Patriots can find some advantage? The Patriots this year, 7.9 yards per play out of empty on offense, which is a very good number. Seattle's defense allowed the fourth most yards per play and the ninth highest explosive play rate against empty sets this year. And so if you can undress them a little bit, that is at least a narrow path for opposing offenses. and the Patriots will do it and have had success doing it this year.

33:10How willing are you to do it knowing the pass protection issues presented by this matchup? It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of thing, right? A couple other stats that I wanted to throw out with the Seahawks defense specifically that I just was blown away by looking through some of it. So per NextGen, of 91 defenses to blitz on fewer than 25 % of their pass rushes since 2018, the Seahawks 59 unblocked pressures were the second most by any team in that stretch the only team with more the 2023 Ravens shock he's pretty good at it he is very very very good at that one specific thing like when you're trying to figure out like what are the examples numbers that point to how good of a play caller specifically Mike McDonald is it is the efficiency one blitzing They have been so devastating whenever they've decided to do it, and I think it's because he has such a great situational and schematic feel for what he needs to do and when he needs to do it.

34:08It's such an interesting—the coaching matchup here is very fun between Vrabel's feel for situational stuff and the edge that he gives his team there, and then McDonald is just an elite play caller. The last one that I do think is worth mentioning, New England did a really good job this year of manipulating opposing defenses with heavier personnel, you're getting a lot of base defense on the field, and they saw a lot of single high despite the fact that their run game wasn't that great. The only team that saw a lower percentage of too high pre-snap looks than the Patriots was the Ravens. And so this is just not something they've really had to deal with as much as other offenses in the league.

34:46A lot of that explosiveness, a lot of that pass game efficiency was coming against looks that are a little bit more ripe for offenses to take advantage. We know that Seattle is not going to give you that. I mean, they had the third highest split safety pre-snap look of any team in the next-gen era this year. It was at like 78%. And again, New England was at 42 % for the year. And the Patriots have been fine against those looks when they've played against them, but they just have not seen as many of them over the course of the season as an average NFL offense would. So that's just one more thing I would keep an eye on.

35:18And the one they saw of this caliber is I'm sure the Chargers are kind of up there, and they did not have a very good game against that Chargers team. before we get to the other side of the ball let's take one more quick break

35:33all right let's get to the other side of the ball the patriots defense against the seahawks offense it's a four and a half point line but i think all of us are of the opinion that seattle has a pretty decided advantage overall as we move into this game if i'm trying to build a new england path to winning the super bowl it starts on this side of the ball like i think that the patriots defense and what it has been over the last month and what it has been like you said post-buy they have to make the biggest plays in this game and they have to muddy up the game and make it ugly for the Patriots to win do you agree with that I think they absolutely have to and I think the thing that everybody's going to say about how they do it is like this front has to play out of their mind and they might like we even actually what's funny is before the New England defense was good I remember I brought this up in like week five or six or whatever it was there was a point in the season where Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were like the only defensive tackles with 30 plus pressures like they and they've been doing that the entire season so and it's not just the pressures like I do think getting interior pressure on Sam Darnold giving him that flash of color you get one or two balls that knocks off of a guy's hand and maybe you can get an interception that way I think that is going to do it but I also think you have to get into the backfield in the run game like that that's going to be the big thing you do not want to allow for how good Clint Kubiak has been you don't want to allow him to get into second and five second and fours where he can consistently do that and Seattle's run game has been a lot better and a lot more varied over the last like six seven weeks like they're really digging into a lot of stuff which I think has been interesting and so I think if those guys can wreck shop like that is really their truest path to making this game tough think the path for New England here is getting the Seahawks into third and seven and plus consistently yep and I think that has to happen and that I actually do think they can and will do like I I don't think this Seattle interior is very good like I Anthony I mean, Bradford is kind of gettable.

37:22The center has been up and down all year. And, like, Gray's able has had a good rookie season since he got banged up in Week 11. I think he's a lot more gettable and just does not push guys around in the run game the way that he was earlier. You saw that second Rams game where Kobe Turner got him several different times. And the Rams interior and the Rams front in general is a really good group. Patriots interior is pretty f***ing good, too. Like, that's what they do well. I'll go as far as to say I was looking through this and I don't know if it's as decided as Seahawks defense Patriots offense.

37:52I think this is a fairly favorable matchup for the New England defense with what they can generate up front, what their interior can do to the Seahawks offensive line. By the way, a dream for defensive tackle enjoyers across this game. I think Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy are second among all DT duos in the league in pressures this year. Williams and Barmore are fourth, which is like two of the best interior defensive lines in the league. I think, what have we talked about all year? JSN exceeding expectations despite being the focal point of the Seahawks passing game. And I'm not willing to say that the Patriots can shut him down because so few teams have been able to limit him.

38:36I like these Patriots big physical cornerbacks not Marcus Jones but the two outside guys in this game I think it gives you a chance of at least being able to limit that and limiting the explosive element of the Seahawks offense to the point where you can really make it difficult on Sam Darnold I want to talk about that in a second putting a final point on the run game stuff I don't disagree with that the one thing I will say the Seahawks run game especially as we've gotten deeper into the season it's all perimeter stuff now that walker is the primary back so they've run the ball outside the tackles on 65 of their runs in the postseason the patriots this year per next gen stats 31st in run in run defense success rate on outside runs since week 10 and when you look at it think about chason and just like how he's built that that you can get the ball on the perimeter against them and the team that i think did a really good job of it and If I'm trying to find some sort of blueprint for how we can do this consistently, the Ravens did a phenomenal job against them in that game.

39:41Derrick Henry didn't run the ball enough in that game. But when they were doing it, some of the pin-pull stuff that they were doing, some of the nub stuff they were doing, they were consistently getting the ball on the edge and getting gashes because of that. And so that one area of the Patriots' run defense, it does align with a strength of how Seattle actually wants to run the ball. And that's a good point, too, because the Seattle run game has actually been a lot more varied than you would think of just like a Kubiak zone run system for like the last six, eight weeks. But a lot of their best stuff has been a lot of the zone stuff, like getting some of those moving double teams, really using Barner across the formation, stuff like that.

40:13In a game like this, that probably is great. I mean, there was a play in the Rams game where they got Barner on a moving double team against, I think it was Larell Murchison. Barner puts him in the ground. And that play pops for like 15 if JSN puts a better block on the perimeter. And so I do think they can get some of that stuff. And why, like, if they can get that going, I do think that is their best path, because I think you want to be able to get Sam Darnold on the move and booting as much in this game, because that's going to get him away from some of the potential interior pressure that he's going to face.

40:42And I actually thought specifically in that Rams game, they had such a good game plan for what they wanted to do with their boots. Like there were three or four instances where they were booting into the boundary and right before the snap, shifting A.J. Barner into the boundary there and just using him as like a chip, force that guy inside so that Sam Darnold can get out. And then he's just there as your flat guy. It was just the little details of how they were piecing it together. And so I think if they can do that consistently, maybe they'll have a chance. But I just feel like even if they get that going, if they can get five or six plays, almost like the offense where you just need five or six haymakers, I think you just fight for those drives where you can get them into a second and 12.

41:19Now you're on the front foot. Now you're going to throw all the blitzes that you've been throwing for two months. I want to talk about the JSN part of this because I'm curious what the plan is from Seattle and how much they want to avoid those corners. And so we get to a place where maybe we see some 1x3 nub stuff where JSN's the number two. Do we see some 11 personnel stuff where he's lined up inside in order to get away from those guys? I wonder just what the layers of creativity are to his usage specifically in this game given the makeup of this Patriots defense compared to the other defenses they've played against really in the back half of the season but also in the playoffs.

41:56Yeah, or do you put him in the backfield? Yeah. That's my other thing is how often do we see him in the back? What is the wrinkle off of that? So we've seen him run choice routes against linebackers from there. We've seen him run that sail route for the touchdown in the Rams game. I expect to see him in the backfield at some point in this game. What is the next layer and the next wrinkle based on the other things that we've already seen them do? I don't know the answer, but I think that they will try out. I'm trying to think of the answer. Might get him on a rail route, something like that. I think we will see him used in a bunch of different ways, again, to potentially avoid what New England's corners can be.

42:32And I think you have to. Listen, JSN is obviously one of the best receivers in the NFL, and he's clearly proven himself as an outside guy. I do think if you are New England and you want to muddy this game up, anytime he's outside the numbers, you are holding him and daring them to make you call him. You've got to try to bully him. You are just daring them to make you call him. Do we see an aggressive, kind of bespoke game plan where you see him doubled in man coverage a decent amount? Other people have mentioned that, And it's like, I can understand that. I wouldn't be surprised. As a one-off thing, you're an underdog.

43:04He is so demonstrably the focal point of that passing game. Do you just say, you know what? F*** it. We are not going to let him beat us. Somebody else is going to beat us. And New England, we know plenty that the one double stuff they've done in the past is different coaching staff. But like Vrabel comes from a world where he has watched his defensive staff do some very specific things in games like that. Do we have something like that in the quiver if you're the New England coaching staff? I think I'd rather, I would rather do that and tip your cap if Cooper Cup or name your other option makes you pay for it than not and let JSN do what he's capable of doing.

43:46This idea of if they can get them in third and seven, if the Patriots can get the Seahawks offense in third and seven often enough, that's the path to them winning the game. And I think part of that is just what we've seen from them as a blitzing team really since the bye. So per next gen, the Patriots have blitzed on 40 % of dropbacks since their week 14 bye. Before that, it was 24 % of snaps. And so the Seattle offense specifically, against those third and clear pass situation blitzes this year, it's been two different worlds. Against man blitzes this year on third down, Seahawks led the NFL in success rate.

44:23And if you include the playoffs, it's over 60%. So if you've played man when you've blitzed them, they've had quick answers, he's known where to go with the ball, and they've been devastated. If you play zone on those third-down blitzes, the Seahawks were 28th in success rate against zone blitzes on third-down this year. And the Patriots, if you look at the numbers, 54 % zone on those blitzes since that week 14 bye. And anecdotally, we've seen this prop up multiple different times this year. when you can kind of funky stuff up on the back end and there's somebody sitting there he didn't expect to be there, Sam will give you one or two against those looks.

45:00And so I do think that the worst version of him kind of aligns with what New England wants to be on their side of the ball. It's very funny, building off of what you just said, he's across all blitzes, everything, he's top ten in the league in success rate when he's blitzed. he also leads the league in interceptions when he's blitzed. So I'm guessing you'll give, you know, he will get you. But if you can get him twice, those plays will likely outweigh the losses. And that's how I would be approaching this if I were the Patriots. To me, they need six splash plays defensively. It's two turnovers and four sacks.

45:41That is the path. The 60 % success rate doesn't scare me. That's like, listen, they might get that anyway. we need to, we'll live with them getting 60, 65 % of their plays in those instances if we can get a hand on three passes and we tip one of those up and we intercept them. And I think what's so inspired about a lot of their zone blitzes is like some of these teams will do a lot of zone blitzes and it's the same five like 3D, 300, BS that it's like really easy to read out. Sometimes the Patriots will put like seven guys on the line of scrimmage and they're playing drop eight. Like they just, it is so all over the board.

46:13And I think Sam's a sharp guy, but like there are still instances where he's going to throw that thing no matter what, and he's going to trust it. And that's how the Rams get him multiple times, obviously. It's like they do a lot of that similar stuff. Other than the outside corners, there's actually a lot of overlap, I think, between the Rams' defense and what the Patriots like to do. And so, I don't know, given how much trouble they've given him at times, I know he's coming off a really good game against the Rams, that on top of how good these corners are, there is a world to me where they can slow him down pretty bad.

46:39The other element of the Patriots' blitz looks against Seattle that is worth thinking about in this game, The Kenneth Walker part of this, he's been a star with the ball in his hands in the playoffs. There is a reason that he does not play that much. The passing snaps that Kenneth Walker played this season per next-gen stats, 226 of them. He blocked on 29 of those 226 plays. They do not want him to do that. That is why Charbonnet played as much as he did this year. And so if you're going to be this blitz-heavy team with him in the game, that the two like matchup specific things New England can pick out in my opinion it's Mill Williams and Barmore against Anthony Bradford and it is whatever the blitz plan looks like against Kenneth Walker like those are the two areas where you got to pick at it if you're the Patriots and you're going to win this thing and and to that point I think a small thing that I would think about if I'm New England New England especially if I have chase on or really any of my Harold land non-Herald Landry edge players on the field I would want them to Kenneth Walker's side and if we're blitzing we have that end peel off and just handle him because they they're not going to keep kenneth walker into pass protect like they don't want to do that they want to get him out and if even if that guy can't run step for step with kenneth walker 20 yards down the field he doesn't necessarily have to he just has to be a flash of color when sam darnold goes to look for that check down he goes oh shit that guy's not open now sam darnold holds on to the ball and i do think sam darnold in the first two and a half seconds of any snap is incredible like the arm talent really shines in a lot of those moments the longer he holds the ball the more you get some of these mistakes in some of these instances.

48:12And so I think if they can do that and just have like a kind of bespoke game plan to put some sort of lid on Kenneth Walker out of the backfield, that's a good way to limit some of their explosives. It has not bitten him since that Carolina game toward the end of the regular season. Darnold has also put the ball on the ground four times in the last four games. And some of that is botched snaps and you fall on it right away. I think that happened against the Rams and they had a miscommunication in the backfield against the 49ers in the regular season. it has not bitten them but don't have one of those things go wrong in the super bowl you know like you wave that off when you fall on it right away against the rams and nobody remembers it it's a game defining play and so four four fumbles in the last four games regardless and all it takes is for that to get kicked into a patriot's grasp and it changes the entire game the last kind of just schematic thing that i think will go a long way in determining how this side of the ball goes is what the Patriots do when the Seahawks play 12 personnel.

49:14That's what the Seahawks want to do. And so New England's response to that has changed situationally over the course of the year. A couple of Seahawks offense stats in 12 personnel before we get into the Patriots side of this. According to NextGen, against base defense this year when passing, Sam Darnold, 12 personnel against base when throwing the ball, 11.3 air yards per attempt, 13.5 yards per attempt, 31 % explosive play rate, 62 % success rate, 10.1 yards per play. That ain't bad. Good. Pretty good. That ain't bad. Against Nickel, yards per attempt goes down by 2.5x. The explosive play rate is a third of what it is against base.

50:02and the success rate goes from 62 % to 47.5%. So that's 12 personnel against nickel looks. Why that matters here. The Patriots have, it's been disparate, their plan against 12 personnel, whether they match with nickel or base. The determining factor for the most part has been whether Spillane is playing. When he's in the game, they match, per next gen, they match multiple tight end sets with nickel 45.5 % of the time. When he's not, it's been 28.5 % of the time. So essentially, they're comfortable playing the run out of nickel against 12 when Spillane is playing. And we see that when you do that against Seattle, the passing game efficiency falls dramatically.

50:45So then the question becomes, if the Patriots are going to play nickel to 12 personnel, can Seattle run the ball against those looks with multiple tight ends on the field? since the bye the Patriots have allowed a 54 % success rate on 12 personnel runs which is 31st in the league over that time so the gives and the takes when Seattle's in 12 and what you have to sacrifice defensively with New England can Seattle take advantage of whatever that choice is for the Patriots that to me might be the most important thing period on that side of the ball because it drives what we're talking about about being able to stay ahead of the sticks and make sure you're playing the game you want to on that side.

51:26And I think, too, kind of with what you were talking about earlier, like when New England is in base, it's not putting a third linebacker on the field. It's putting Kyrgios Tonga on the field, which is going to help you stop a lot of those inside runs because he's an incredible inside nose guard. He does a really good job there. And so in some ways that gives you a little bit more like you kick Milton Williams and Christian Barmore out slightly, maybe a gap over. Maybe they can run across like an outside zone, cut something off. But that's still not necessarily helping you on a lot of those outside runs that you're talking about because when they're in 12 personnel a lot of times they're putting those two guys on the same side of the line of scrimmage you're creating these three and four man surfaces then you can hit the perimeter the way that you're talking about and so i don't know i i would almost want to be a nickel and just just to have more team speed to the perimeter more than i would i want to make them run the ball against me to win this game i do not want to allow them to hit four or five explosives yeah throwing the ball out of 12 against base and i think they've shown you that when their starters are out there they want to play a nickel to 12 and I would not be surprised if that was their answer.

52:24I'm asking my linebackers to have the game of their lives. Yeah, that's fine with me. All right. Absolutely not. No, we're not done. We have to talk about special teams. We're going to podcast about special teams. The Seahawks special teams is incredible. I mean, it is kind of worth it. Absolutely not. Okay, no, there are a couple things we have to mention, specifically for the Seahawks side of this. Think about what Rashid Shahid has done for Seattle on special teams. By the way, Marcus Jones is tied for the league lead in punt return touchdowns on the season. That's why I didn't feel like it was that important to talk about because both special teams are good.

53:01Comes out in a wash. That's kind of where I landed with this. I'm glad you said that, though, because I think there is a little bit of a discrepancy and it comes down to the kicker. I pulled this off of. Yeah, you love that? I pulled this off of off of next gen. It was a mistake. It was a huge mistake. Andy Borogales was one of eight kickers this year to finish with a negative field goal over expectation number. Of the eight that did that, five got cut this year. And another one was Brandon McManus, who Packer fans spent most of the year trying to cut. And he cost them in the season. Yes. Borogales was 7 of 11 between 40 and 49 yards this year.

53:44And he missed two extra points. Missed two kicks in the AFC title game. I'm not going to hold that against him too much because of the snow. but you still got to keep that in mind jason myers top 10 in field goal over expectation 4.2 so given the difficulty of the kicks he's one of 10 kickers that had that high of a number though it's worth pointing out he had a rough day in the regular season finale against uh the 49ers he missed from 47 and he missed from 26 it makes the main thing it makes me wonder is is boragallis enough of a liability that it makes Vrabel play things that much more aggressively.

54:20Like maybe you're not willing to settle. And they should anyway, right? 40-yard fuel. I think that's the mindset they should probably take into the game either way. And we talked about it on a previous show this week. The Seahawks are not a go-for-it team. They do it less than anybody in the league. Myers is typically reliable. Don't have a bad day. Don't let this be the day where you underperform what has been a mostly very good season. You feel better now? I do feel better. Watch. It's going to matter. It is going to matter. I'm giving him shit. I knew he was going to do this, and so it's why I didn't have to prepare any special team stuff for this show.

54:54All right. Who wins Super Bowl 60? I don't like the vibes when it feels like one team is the overwhelming pick, but I think the Seahawks are a better team. It spreads four and a half. Four and a half. I like the Seahawks to cover in this game. I really do think the Patriots' defense can muck it up. That to me is the path. When I saw four and a half originally, I was like, huh, what do I not understand about this? I think the answer to that is if it's an ugly enough game, even if Seattle feels like they have control of it the whole time, is it a five-point game at the end because the Patriots ugly it up so much?

55:31That version of the game is easy for me to picture and understand. Yeah, that's kind of where I'm like. I do think the Seahawks win this game. I think that they probably cover, but it's easier to see the world where the Seahawks defense is exactly as good as we think they are, but their offense sputters in the way that we've kind of just talked about a little bit. And this ends up a, I don't know, like an 18 to 12, that sort of like score type of game. That's a lot. That would be a lot of field goals. I love it. I love a weird score in a Super Bowl, though. I'm a big fan of like a memorable score line.

56:00I'll take Seattle like 25, 20. I got 24, 16 Seattle. Yeah, so they cover. And I think, again, it's just a game where it feels like they're in control for most of it, because I just don't want to overreact too much to what the Patriots' offenses looked like in the playoffs, but this is the best defense they played against. It's just hard for me to imagine a world outside of them hitting four or five explosives that maybe sneak up on us where the Patriots consistently move the ball in this game. It's hard. There were other circumstances for why they struggled in those games, the weather, all that stuff, but those were the three best defenses they played all year, and they did not look good outside of a couple of drives against Houston.

56:39like it's just when you when you up the ante even more against the seahawks team it's tough i think you gotta if you're the patriots this has to be a very very bad sam darnold game i think that's your best path to victory but yeah i like i like the seahawks i think the seahawks have been the best team in the league and i think they will show us again that they were the best team in the league the entire season all right that is all we've got from radio row here in san francisco So sincerely appreciate everybody checking out the stuff that we've been doing all week. We will have all of the play breakdown, telestrator stuff that we've been doing with players.

57:14That's going to be coming out on the YouTube channel over the next couple of days. It's going to be coming out of the YouTube channel over the next couple of weeks. I encourage you guys to check that out. We will be live from Levi's Stadium sometime after the game. I'm not going to give you a time because who knows what the Internet's going to look like. Who knows where we're going to be shooting from. From the logistics of doing it from the actual game, we can debate whether they're worth it. I like going to the Super Bowl. So we're going to the Super Bowl. That's where we're doing it from. Be on the lookout for the broadcast time information for when we're doing that show, but it will be coming your guys' way on Sunday night.

57:48Sincerely appreciate everybody listening to the show all year. We've had a blast. We got one more podcast to go, and hopefully it's after a very, very good game. That's all we got for today. That's all we got from Radio Row. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.