Thanksgiving and Black Friday Preview: A Football Feast!

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. over these two days. And so we wanted to spend some time digging into them. So we previewed all four of these games, me, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen. Let's get to it.

0:45Little two-part week 13 preview here on the Athletic Football Show. Obviously a holiday week, but so many good Thanksgiving games. I think in the past, I can never remember what we do in any given year, But we haven't always previewed the Thanksgiving games. This week, it feels like we'd be doing a disservice to the schedule if we didn't at least talk about these games before they happen because the Thanksgiving slate is so good. So today, we are going to preview the three Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game. And then tomorrow, we're going to be bringing you guys another kind of condensed mini preview for the rest of the week 13 slate.

1:21We're going to hit a couple games and then a bucket of games that all kind of fall into a similar category. So be on the lookout for that on Friday morning. But today we're going to dig into the Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate that is offering up a lot of good games. We're going to start with the game of the week presented by BetMGM. The Packers at the Lions. The Lions are two and a half point favorites. What we're going to do for all of these is that we're just going to hit one thing on each side of the ball. That's the plan here moving forward. We're going to start with the Packers offense and Lions defense.

1:54Derek, this is all you, buddy. the one thing you are looking for when the Packers have the ball in this game? This one is pretty simple to me, but the Packers don't run the ball well. The Lions defend the run well. And so I think we're going to get out of this game is a lot of pure dropback. The Lions love to play a lot of man coverage. Jordan Love has actually been really good against man coverage this year. He is fourth in success rate, third in EPA per dropback, which that was kind of the big thing we talked about last year, right? Was that this was a offense that really struggled to beat man coverage.

2:23and they've certainly been better at it this year. And they're getting some of their guys back. Christian Watson has recently come back. Jaden Reed was practicing this week. Matthew Golden practicing again this week in limited fashion. So I think them getting some of their guys back, it's going to be important in this game. And I want to see them throw more outbreakers. Let's run some more underneath shallow routes where we can get guys running against what is still kind of a banged up Lions secondary. And so it's pretty simple. Like we know the Lions play man coverage. This is what they do. and for some of years past, the Packers offense has struggled to throw against Mann.

2:54I think this is a game where I think that's just going to get tested. It's funny that the Packers offense just has like two puzzle pieces that they can never seem to fit together. Last year, they were really consistent under center run game. You could rely on it. It was kind of the engine of the offense. And then they struggled against certain types of coverage looks and that held them back over the course of the year. Well, now this year, they figured out some of those issues they have throwing the ball last year, but now they can't run the ball consistently. And so it feels like a whack-a-mole with the issues that this team has been having on offense when you compare last year to this one.

3:29It's insanely frustrating. And the last thing I will say too, to Eric in particular, do you just hear how broken down he is about this? I want them to be good. And the fact that they've, like if they could marry these, they would look like the Rams, but they have not been able to marry them. And so they don't look like the Rams. I will say too, Jordan Love, his left shoulder has been a little bit banged up you saw him doing the thing again last week where he's not handing the ball off normally he's doing like the backhanded handoff because he doesn't want to use his left hand slightly injured Jordan Love is prone to do something potentially stupid in this game and so I'm like mildly worried about that as you think about the pass catchers Derek in a post Tucker Craft world and he's not dead but he's not playing football anymore this season we get Christian Watson back Matthew Golden's healthy again is there anything about the deployment of those guys or the roles that they're filling that you would like to see tweaked down the stretch here that you think might be able to lead this offense to the best version of itself?

4:29I mean, again, I think having them run more like vertical stem routes outside of the numbers is going to be huge because I think this has been a passing offense. We've talked about it before, especially when they go to pure drop back. It was a lot of quick game. It was a lot of like trying to make sure we're running into these zone beaters and just getting the good looks pre-snap. I think they need to have more just like one-on-one routes. Jordan Love is going to pin the ball on this guy, whether it's Jaden Reed, whether it's Golden down the field, whether it's Christian Watson running some of these vertical or outbreakers, like I don't really care.

4:59We just need to run more. My guy's going to beat that guy routes. And I know that they don't have the best receivers for that necessarily, but you have to at least prove to defenses that you're willing to do it in a way that they just weren't for like two months. It's ancient history at this point, but man, the remember, like the, the week one game between these teams is sort of what started the snowball effect with the Packers being considered this dominant juggernaut. I mean, especially like in the first half alone, they hit something like half a dozen explosive plays. Like they had everything clicking and, and obviously the, the pass rush was phenomenal against Jared Goff.

5:37This was the game that sort of got the ball rolling on everybody, just penciling the Packers into the Super Bowl. And it has not looked like that for most of the ensuing 11 weeks. And getting another shot at the Lions, I'm interested to see how everybody revisits this. I like that framing because it kind of brings me to the other side of the ball. Because that week one game, that was the moment we were all like, oh man, Lions offense, is this going to be a real problem without Ben Johnson? And then for the next month after that, they're just destroying people. I mean, I think the Bears game was week two.

6:10And so they got very right very quickly. The Lions offense did after struggling against the Packers defense in week one. And for most of the first half of the season, I mean, you look at all the numbers and you look at the eye tests and just how it felt down to down. And it really did feel like they were cruising on that side of the ball. And now they've hit kind of a skid. You know, they had that great game against Washington, Derek. And then we talked about it. What is the Lions offense with Dan Campbell call and play is going to look like when they have to start playing against some real defenses?

6:39They struggled against the Eagles. And then last week against the Giants, they ran the ball great. They ran the ball great against the worst run defense in the NFL. Like that is what the Giants are. Dead last in any paper rush, dead last in rushing success rate. And that's what they had to lean on last week against the Giants. And is it possible the Lions can just line up and run the ball 35 times and do it efficiently against the Packers team that's been kind of a middling run defense this year? Yes, but I don't think that's the type of offense you want to be if you're Detroit. I mean, the entire point of this is that at its best, it felt like this well-oiled, versatile machine that kind of had answers against anything.

7:16And that's just not what they've looked like over the last few games when they've played against decent defenses. Derek, as you've watched them, is there anything about the way the Lions offense feels right now that has become particularly concerning to you? I mean, I think a lot of it is, it does go back to the run game. And it stems to that to me, like they can't move people off the ball the way that they want to typically. And I know, again, they like try to end the game last week with a 69 yard Jameer Gibbs run. But again, that's the Giants. And I know the Packers run defense is not great, but I do think that they should be considerably better in this game.

7:51The Packers run defense, that is. And I think the issue that we've had, and I talked about this when Jared Goff was in Los Angeles, he is still a quarterback, even though he's better now. When you get him into more down in distances that are not like we can run the ball on second and five or whatever it is, and we can use play action and we can use all this stuff. He is a guy that you can start to heat up a little bit and you can get some of these pressures. And I think the Packers actually do a pretty good job of that. And so I think their run game infrastructure overall, just lending to them being in more situations where they can't use play action as much.

8:22Maybe they have to go more pure pass. Maybe they're not getting as many automatic first downs in the run game. I just think that that leads to a little bit more herky-jerkiness in the offense. And so I think the passing game is constructed well. It's just when you put Goff in these scenarios more, that's how you get a little bit more of an up-and-down offense. He's just been bothered more often recently than he was when this offense was really humming over the past couple years. And I think it's for two specific things that I would point out. One, the pass protection on the interior just is not at the level it was when this offense is one of the best offenses in the league over the last couple of years.

8:58Christian Mahogany had his flubs in pass protection early in the season, even if he was moving people in the run game. But he was still playing at a pretty good level. Now you're moving Coyote Awaseka in there for Christian Mahogany. And so you're deteriorating what was a step down from the 2024 and 2023 versions of this even further. And you saw that against the Giants. I mean, Darius Alexander beats him for a sack. Rakeem Nunez-Roches beats him for a sack. These are not world beaters. Alexander's been fine, but the matchup advantages this team used to have consistently in the interior, they no longer have.

9:33And so whether it's one-on-one pass protection situations, and then the other thing that really jumped out to me re-watching the Lions offense against the Giants last week, and then even over the last couple weeks, we talked about it halfway through the season. What this team was doing to defenses that were blitzing them was insanity over the first six weeks of the year. They had a 62 and a half percent passing success rate over the first six weeks of the season when being blitzed per next gen stats. The Lions did over the past six weeks. That goes to 42 percent. They are 22nd in the NFL and success rate when blitzed over the past six weeks of the season.

10:12And you saw that against the Giants. Like when he's getting moved off his spot, that's when you can really start taking advantage of this Lions offense against and of Jared Goff specifically. And so I think the one on one pass protection stuff and them just not having as many answers when teams are trying to heat them up and how unsettled it's made them look in some of those moments. That's just a version of this Lions offense, Dave, that we have not really had to see since they became the Lions as we know them to be right now. and that's what's concerning to me about the lions in the big picture is I don't know how much I like their chances in games where you can do that to their offensive line I think I said it a week or two ago when we were talking about them as a contenders the offensive line is is not horrendous but it was a force when they were a 15 and 2 team or even the year before that when they were the division winner.

11:08It doesn't feel like that. And if teams can do that to you, more importantly, if they can do that to Jared Goff, it worries me. It worries me in a matchup like this. It worries me in the big picture. So that is, it's something I have a close eye on. And with guys that can get after the quarterback the way the Packers have, I'm interested to see what it looks like. Because if we're trying to think six weeks ahead of time and think what might cap a team's potential, that's what I have circled for the Detroit Lions is what do they look like against teams that can take advantage of their offensive line and make their quarterback uncomfortable.

11:47Two things need to happen in this game. Lucas Van Ness, I believe, is going to be back in this game. And so that's something where if he's going to play, getting Micah Parsons inside a little bit more often against those guards, I think should be something that you're focused on. And Derek, we've talked about this. The interior guys for the Packers, they're not bad players. There have just been moments this year where they've been a little bit frustrating. You can move them a little bit top to bottom. The pass rush probably isn't as good as we want it to be considering the Parsons trade and some of the flashes we had seen from this group over the past couple of years.

12:17Those interior guys for the Packers need to be positive forces in this game against the interior of the Lions. If that doesn't happen, then I think we could see the Lions have a pretty good day both running the ball and holding up in pass protection. If they do, they're still able to take advantage of you. And that's especially true in pass protection because like Jared Goff, I think when you just get edge pressure, he's fine because he'll step up and he'll just rip the ball. But when he gets interior pressure, he just can't do anything. And so they need to find ways to pressure him there. The last thing I wanted to note, the Packers last week did a lot of this and they did a lot of it in week one against the Lions.

12:51The Lions and Vikings both love to run some of these big in-breaking concepts off and off play action. And against Detroit in week one against Minnesota last week, the Packers had their two highest rates of cover two in the entire of the entire season. It was about 28 % of dropbacks in week one. And it was like 30 % of dropbacks last week. And when you see them doing that, that linebacker that becomes like the pole runner in the middle of the field, he's dropping under some of those big in breakers that those teams like to throw. And so if you're taking those away from the lions, where do they turn in the passing game?

13:24And I think you're going to need to see them take some of those hole shots outside of the numbers that they don't necessarily love to take. That's not the offense they want to be. But if you're going to play a ton of those cover two looks against them, they're going to need to seek those out. And there was one in the second half when they played the Giants last week where they get Amon Ross St. Brown on one of those little circus routes where he starts right to left, he's running a crosser, and then bends it back between the corner and the safety of that side. Goff hits him for like a 30-yard gain.

13:50You're going to need to hit those throws based on the way the Packers are going to play against you in coverage. and if there may not be as many gashes off of play action because they're doing that but you're going to need to hit some of those hole shots and you're going to need to be taking the underneath stuff that's there and for the most part last week against the Giants that was the most efficient stuff the Lions passing game did it was all the underneath stuff they were hitting when some of those bigger in breaking windows were taken away so taking little chunks biting it off in smaller pieces and trying to hit those outside of the numbers opportunities I think both of those are going to have to happen for the Lions in this game.

14:27All right, let's get to our next one here. Chiefs at Cowboys. Let's start with when the Chiefs have the ball in this game against the Cowboys defense. Dave, this is all you. What are you looking for on that side of the ball in this one? I got to go back to Sunday to start this and what came out of the Cowboys game against the Eagles, which I'm not trying to shit on Landon Dickerson. He's a phenomenal football player, and he has forgotten more about football than I'll ever know. But I was really curious about something that came out of that, out of the game. Landon Dickerson said to reporters, the Cowboys did a lot of stuff defensively that they weren't ready for.

15:06And particularly, he was talking about five-man fronts. He was like, yeah, they got into a lot of five-man fronts. We weren't super ready for it. Shockingly, I'm being sarcastic, it caused an uproar with the Philadelphia fan base about like, What are these guys doing during the week? And Landon Dickerson even came out on Monday or Tuesday. And he was like, I wasn't, I wasn't trying to say that we weren't prepared for the game. But if you watch the Cowboys, they did a little bit of five man front stuff against Vegas and they hadn't done it the entire season before that. So we just didn't really know what to expect.

15:41Like I said, as respectfully as possible to Landon Dickerson, my brother in Christ, the Cowboys traded for Quinn and Williams. Like they had only played one game with Quinn and Williams heading into this Philly game. So the fact that the Eagles saw Dallas run a five man front 10 times ish against Vegas and didn't think that it might tick upward from there is a little bit crazy to me. And that is that is the number one thing I'm watching for when we watch this game, because. I mean, he is right, by the way, the Cowboys didn't do this before they added all pro defensive tackle to their lineup. But now with Quinnen Williams, with Oso Digizua and throw in Kenny Clark too, they're doing it a lot.

16:29They ran it 20 plus times against Philadelphia in that Sunday game. And they were great at it. Like the Eagles had no successful runs when the Cowboys did that. They had like a, or excuse me, they had one. They broke a Saquon run off left tackle. But for the most part, it was a big piece of Dallas shutting down the Philadelphia run game, which they did. They were second worst in rushing success rate against design runs over the first nine weeks of the season. And it is admittedly a small sample size, but they have jumped all the way up to 12th in the two games that they've had, Quentin Williams.

17:10And getting all of these DTs onto the field is a really big part of it. They've only allowed one explosive run over the last two weeks. They had 34 heading into the Raiders game. So it's made quite a big difference plugging Quinn and Williams into your front. Who would have thought? And we talked about it before. Like the Chiefs are not a sexy running team. They do it surprisingly well. They're sixth in the league in rushing success rate. They were obviously pretty successful doing it against Indianapolis. how willing the Chiefs are to even try this and how well the Cowboys are equipped to deal with it is very interesting to me.

17:47I have two responses to this. One, this is a reminder to me of how dangerous the back half of last season was for the Philadelphia Eagles. Because what happened in the back half of last season for the Eagles is, it didn't matter what other teams did to them. They were going to be able to run the ball no matter what the fronts were, no matter what the box counts were. And when you've had that stretch of success, independent of how specific your plan is for opposing defenses, that's dangerous because then you get it in your head of like, oh, we can just run into any front that we want to. And then you're running truly bad concepts into bad looks.

18:28And that's exactly what happened against the Cowboys last week. That doesn't apply to this game, though. My specific thought about this game is the Chiefs, I think will be fine throwing the ball 55 times in this game if they have to. And I think that's the issue. So there's a really, there's a really fun push pull here and I'm excited to see how it bears out because like I just said, I think the Cowboys are equipped to stop the chiefs from successfully running the ball. Now that they have Quentin Williams and they know what they want to do here to your point, Robert Cowboys are 23rd in the league and success rate versus man coverage.

19:01Matt Eberflus calls this defense. Like he doesn't even want to run man coverage anyway. And when the Cowboys do it, they're not very good. And we did this whole song and dance previewing chiefs Colts last week. So we don't have to get too deep into it, but chiefs are bad against man. The Cowboys don't like to run man and they're bad when they do it anyway. So the chiefs might just say, okay, great. We don't have to give the ball to Kareem hunt and Isaiah Pacheco 35 times today. We'll just throw it. Oh, too bad. Okay, but here's the other fun part. Like, it's not as hopeless as you might think for the Cowboys, and I'll tell you why.

19:38I got this from NextGen. Keep in mind, too, it doesn't sound like Trey Smith is going to play in this game, which is a big piece of it. So the one ace that I think the Cowboys might have up their sleeve is that Patrick Mahomes is only completing 37 % of his passes, specifically when he is pressured from the interior of the line. Like he has not been very good when the Chiefs get pressure right in the middle of the pocket, right in his face. And in two games together, Quinton Williams and Anoso Digizua lead the league in not just pressures, but quick pressures. So they are equipped to at least make this difficult on Patrick Mahomes.

20:23I mean, I assume they're going to play some zone and I trust Patrick Mahomes to hit those, you know, open receivers when he gets them. But with these D tackles in place, I at least think the Cowboys have a chance, especially if Trey Smith doesn't play in this game. I'm very, I'm very interested in this. Like the chiefs are, maybe the chiefs are going to say, screw it. We don't even need to run the ball. And the Cowboys are going to say, okay, well, we're just going to throw these Tyrannosaurus Rex defensive tackles at you and see what you do. It should be very fun. And the fact that this is even a matchup worth getting excited about says so much about the Cowboys decision to trade for Quinn and Williams, because I would have I wouldn't have even wanted to talk about this two weeks ago.

21:05And here I am, like getting juiced for a chess match involving the Dallas Cowboys defense. I was about to say this. Imagine being on Halloween thinking about, yeah, man, that Dallas Cowboys front. You just can't let them take over the game. And we have somehow reached that point because of the Quinn Williams trade. Dude, he was ragdolling the Eagles. I don't know if y 'all went back and watched that game where obviously it's a short week here, but like it was incredible. And Osa as well, but Quinton Williams has the potential to really make life miserable on the Chiefs. And I'm excited to see what all of this looks like.

21:43Let's get to the other side of the ball. Chiefs defense against the Cowboys offense. Derek, this is all you. What are you watching when the Cowboys offense has the ball in this game? So I'm going to kind of follow the theme of like, I actually think Dallas matches up really well here. I know. So the Chiefs, the Chiefs defense is fine. And I think one thing that people or teams have mostly struggled to do against them and have not been willing to do is throw the ball down the field. And a lot of that is because of the two high coverages that they play. And sometimes when you just get the immediate pressure that Spags will throw, even though they struggled to do that a little bit more this year, it's still harder to throw down the field.

22:22The difference is Dak is extremely willing to do that. And also he has George Pickens, who it doesn't matter if he's open or not. Like you just throw it to him and he's going to dunk on Trent McDuffie or whoever it is. And so I actually do think they have the capacity to maybe hit one or two of those plays. And then the other thing that we've sort of talked about, And this ties into, I think, some of the Chiefs' struggles with play action and stuff like that. But on throws of 8 to 20 yards between the numbers, so the middle of the field, they are 24th in success rate. They are 29th in EPA per dropback.

22:55You want to know who is, again, incredible at throwing in the middle of the field because this is how he's made his money? Dak Prescott. He's 5th in success rate. He's 1st in EPA per dropback, which, by the way, is insane given the volume. He has 51 of those attempts, which is the 3rd most in the league. So he's doing it all of the time and is also one of the best in the league at it. Like it's I really expect them to be able to hit that part of the field. And I know we've all made the jokes over the years of like, oh, the seam routes that Dak will throw. And that's certainly part of it. But like they hit a number of dagger concepts last week, throwing the dig to George Pickens last week.

23:28They'll run these like slants and like little crossers at different levels that he'll throw to that area. He hit CeeDee Lamb in the hands on a deep crosser last year, just or last week, just inside the numbers that he dropped. And so these numbers could be even better. Like this is, I actually do think the Dallas passing offense matches up really, really well against this Chiefs defense. It does feel like this game could be kind of fireworks on both sides of the ball. Like I am open to that idea. And I think we always knew the Cowboys offense this year had that sort of gear. It just, they couldn't get a stop in the games where that was happening.

24:00And now it does feel like even if the defense is an imperfect unit, Dave, they've got enough teeth to potentially keep them in games like this. And that's why we said it last week going to the Eagles game. It's just so much more interesting when your defense shows some signs of life to give your offense a shot in the way that it deserves as currently constructed. Just be regular bad. Like I said, the only downside here is the Cowboys. It might be too late. Like they might have just been bad enough for long enough that it doesn't matter. I have this pulled up. I mean, heading into this game, they've got what?

24:40A 13 % chance of making the playoffs. Like it's not great. And ironically, this is a situation. Don't get me wrong. Beating the Chiefs would matter. But the Lions game coming on the other side of this matters even more. You know, like it's an NFC matchup. So tiebreakers and things like that come into play. they would have to go on a pretty substantial run here to pull it off. But if the defense can play like it did against Philadelphia, I mean, Dak with a couple of exceptions has played at a level that makes you think they could get hot. I mean, they've, the offense has been hot all year. And so if the defense can just meet them in the middle, this could be a team that's, that's really exciting over the last, whatever, five, six weeks.

25:24Hopefully it's not too late for them. And I'd have to throw in, And so we're talking about the Cowboys on national TV on Thanksgiving. I'll lean into my TV history a little bit. It's very takey, but Dak is 0-4 against the big three. It's not a huge sample size because they're all in the AFC, but it would mean a lot if he were able to beat Patrick Mahomes. I don't care what the Chiefs record is. With the amount of people that tune into a Thanksgiving game and just all of America has the TV on for a game like this. If Dak were to play the way he's played this year and beat Patrick Mahomes, that's a pretty big moment for a guy who has often fallen short in these sorts of kind of watershed games.

26:13So that's intriguing. You think that means more on Thanksgiving than beating like the Daniel Jones, Joe Judge Giants? Just a little bit, yeah. And you know what? That's as somebody who covered the Cowboys for a long time, like give me more of this. I like division games can happen whenever keep the division game for any other week. Give me more of Cowboys against who at like whoever it is that you're Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen. Like this is this is what gets me juiced up more so than another Cowboys commanders game. Yeah, that's one where again, this is an ongoing thing, but I never know anything about the schedule until I open it for that given week and opening the week 13 schedule.

26:55It was probably last week because we were figuring out what we wanted, how we wanted to program the podcast. But nonetheless, it was later than most people were aware that the Chiefs are playing the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. And when I realized that, I was like, oh, man, that changes my day. That changes the complexion of the day in a way that I fully support. It's really good. It's very good. Before we move on, we're going to take a quick break.

27:20Let's get to the last Thanksgiving game. Speaking of games that are more interesting than they would have been, Bengals at Ravens. Let's start with when the Bengals have the ball in this game, Dave. Anything in particular that you're going to have an eye on when the Bengals have the ball in this game? He's f***ing back, baby. Joey B is here. He's here to play some football. And I mean, honestly, I'm trying my best to temper my expectations since we haven't seen him since week two. and T. Higgins isn't going to play. So, of course, like you finally get Joe back and T. is out. Jamar Chase served a suspension.

27:57It really sometimes feels like the football gods like conspire to keep a whole like, you know, fantastic unit from ever playing too much football together. But I digress. Joe Burrow is going to play football. Joe Burrow means a lot to me as both a fan of football and an LSU graduate. So I don't give a shit. I don't care what their record is. I don't know how good it's going to look. I hope it looks good, but I'm just, I'm excited to see my guy number nine play some ball. I'm considering the Bengals are three and eight and the Ravens have really looked lackluster since week one. I'm really pumped for a matchup that like on paper suggests I shouldn't be.

28:40I'm glad you said it because I was going to lead us to it. People have not gotten to fully understand what how LSU fans think and talk about Joe Burrow, because this is your first year on the show and he's been hurt the whole year. I don't think people around the country are like fully aware of the fact that LSU grads are still like very attuned to what Joe Burrow is doing in the NFL, like each and every day. The best way I can say it is the state of Louisiana televises the Bengals game. Like obviously the Saints game is going to be on, but if the Bengals are on CBS and the Saints are on Fox, the Bengals game is what's going to air in every market in Louisiana.

29:22And like if or if they're at different time slots, like if it's feasible, the Bengals game will be on in that state. It means a lot. And obviously the fact that Jamar wound up there the year after him, like the people give me a lot of shit. Like, you know, I covered the Cowboys for a long time. I grew up in Louisiana and people are like, oh, you're a Saints fan. You're a Cowboys fan. And I'm like, if I stop doing this job tomorrow, I'd probably just root for the Bengals. Like that's, that's where, and that is, that would be a bleak decision to make, but I would do it. I would do it though. I would.

29:54Um, so yeah, who, who knows how good he's going to look, but we, we talked about this last week when this first became a possibility. It's, it's probably going to look rusty. I would guess I, I, I, I'm not expecting like last year's Bengals Ravens games right off the bat where it's like 45, 44, but way better to get this out of the way now than have Joe Burrow going into 2026, having not played since September of 2025. Like I think, I think this is, this is big for the Bengals. Like a, you mathematically have a chance to do something amazing. B you get Joe back on the field. You give him a chance to get his feet underneath them, heading into next season and also give the season ticket holders and Bengals fans everywhere reason to like have hope when they turn on the TV on Sunday, I'm assuming he's a hundred percent unhealthy, which he insists that he is.

30:48I really like that he's doing this. And he, he put it pretty perfectly to the media this week where he was like, I'm a football player and I get paid a lot of money to play football. And, and that's what I'm going to try to do if I can. And I was like, yes, Joe, absolutely. I had my first thought while watching that is that if you're, I know the people who do Bengals who run PR for the Bengals and I know like their job is made easier. And I think a lot of people in the building can breathe easier because he is so good in that moment of explaining why it's important for him to play. Like it shuts down a lot of like speculation or rumor or questions because he's able to so concisely and efficiently sit up there and just be like, guys, this isn't like a discussion.

31:33Like I'm healthy and this is what I do for a living. Like if I get hurt, I get hurt. And so I feel like the way that he handled that really diffused a lot of stuff in an impressive way. And like, Dave, you're aware of this, like the dynamics that you have when you're starting quarterback is good in front of the microphone, understands the power he has when he's sitting in that space. And Joe Burrow very much does. And sometimes he wields that to his benefit, but there are times where he wields that to the Bengals benefit. And I think this was absolutely one of those moments. If you have a quarterback who gets that and can sort of shoulder the mantle.

32:12I mean, obviously it gives you a chance on the field every Sunday, but the whole organization can march to the beat of that drum. And it doesn't even have to be like people who even interact with him, you know, like that affects so many people in that organization and their ability to do the job. It's, it's pretty remarkable to see when a guy sort of gets it. And obviously the best ones almost don't really have a choice but to be that guy. And Joe Burrow absolutely is. I did. I have it's really hard to preview a game where the quarterback hasn't played in 10 weeks. But a couple of things I wanted to throw out here.

32:52Number one, Jamar Chase is only catching 23 percent of his deep targets this season, which is tied for his career low. He's three of 13 when he's targeted 20 plus yards down the field. His career average is 42%. And like I said, I don't know if it's fair to put that on Joe Burrow in week one back from an injury to his plant foot. But I'm excited to see if they can establish that chemistry right away. I mean, Lord knows they've had enough reps together. And the other thing I just want to point out, we're all very impressed by the Ravens' defensive turnaround. but have you guys taken a look at the disparity in quarterback play they've faced over the first and second half of the season?

33:40It's the same story as last year. We want to ascribe some of the tweaks they've made defensively to the uptick in production and quality, and I'm sure some of it is rooted in them figuring out what they want to be on defense, but you can't dismiss the fact that they're also playing worse teams as they've gotten better. but also this version of Joe Burrow I'm not as sure like is any better than a lot of the other guys that they've played at this stage I don't even know okay it's about today I think this is more about like trying to get context around how good the Ravens defense is I mean I it's like I keep saying I will I'm gonna give Joe Burrow some grace and I don't expect him to play at the level he played last year in his first game back but I mean just for context if you're listening and you don't know.

34:28Weeks one through six, the Ravens played Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, CJ Stroud, and Matthew Stafford. Weeks seven through 12, they've played Caleb Williams, Tua, JJ McCarthy, Dylan Gabriel, and Shadur Sanders, and Terod Taylor. So an ascending superstar and then five backups. I'll even give you Caleb as a good quarterback. Like, that's fine. But if Caleb is the best quarterback you've played since week seven, you're living right. Like that's, that's really good. And then you have 16 points in that game. So yes, the Ravens defense has played against like one above average offense in the last six weeks.

35:04And they did a pretty damn good job against them. Let's get to the other side of the ball. This is on me. We don't have to spend a ton of time on this. If it doesn't happen this week, what is it going to happen? And I know that Lamar is still banged up and that's absolutely worth mentioning. Every time we talk about why the Ravens have relatively been struggling offensively, he's clearly not a hundred percent. maybe that's just going to be how he looks and feels over the rest of the season. But even this version of the Ravens with him banged up, I want to see it against this Bengals defense. And it's not just a matter of the quality of the Bengals defense.

35:38It's a matter of how the Bengals defense is bad. Because how the Bengals defense is bad actually aligns very well with why the Ravens should still be good. So the Bengals have the worst EPA dropback in the NFL when playing zone coverage. And that matches the eye test when you watch them play. Like there's just so much air in the coverage, especially in the middle and intermediate areas of the field when you play this team. And that's exactly where the Ravens are most dangerous and have been most dangerous for the last several years. So even with their relative struggles this year, the Ravens are still a very good team when throwing the ball against zone coverage.

36:17Lamar is eighth in the NFL in EPA per dropback against zone coverage this year per next gen with an above average success rate. He is 23rd in EPA per drop back versus man coverage. The Bengals do not play a lot of man coverage. They're like a bottom eight man coverage team. It's like 19 % of their total snaps are cover one. And so, so many different elements of this should be lining up for the Ravens to be able to have their way throwing the ball, even if Lamar isn't 100%. And on the other side of this, when they're running the ball, get the ball on the perimeter 25 times in this game. Like I, that is what I want to see.

36:51Like, I think this could be a big Keaton Mitchell game. And I want to see some just tosses and let's get Derrick Henry revved up to full speed outside the tackles. Only the Giants this season have allowed more yards on outside runs than the Cincinnati Bengals have. And the Ravens are 27th in rushing success rate this year. Down to down, they have struggled. They are second in explosive run rates still. and so if this game doesn't end with four or five explosive runs and four or five explosive passes from the Ravens even if they've been struggling up to this point relative to what we've come to expect from them this is going to be the moment where I start freaking out I agree because I think even with their struggles this should be a game they win because like the Bengals the reason they are bad against outside runs and the reason they are bad against zone is it puts a lot of onus on your second and third level players.

37:45I knew he was going to bring it back to shitty linebackers. It was always going to end here. Hey, don't forget the shitty safeties either. Right, exactly. Watching Barrett Carter and Geno Stone try to, it's just terrible. And the thing is like with the zone coverage stuff, it's not just that they do a poor job closing passing windows and being in the right spot and all that stuff. It's that once they allow a pass, they miss a tackle all of the time. Like, it's just like that is the biggest issue. And then obviously when you're getting runs on the perimeter, it's very easy for one guy to just miss in the play pops for 20 yards and so I think they struggle with all that and the last thing I would say in terms of the passing offense the Bengals do not send extra bodies at you and so if we're just going to let Lamar stand there in a clean pocket when the one thing he really struggles with right now is not moving athletically the way that he normally would because he's been banged up well it's like if you're just going to let him stand there in a clean pocket and pick a pick apart zone coverage dude he could do that all day and And so I think them, if the Bengals want to have a shot, you've got to throw some five and six man pressures and just like pray that you get three good plays out of it.

38:47Some cover zero. The Bengals will do that. Not at like a super high rate, but they will do it every once in a while. And so them turning that up a little bit, maybe not surprising, which would feel kind of like an old school Bengals-Ravens game because early in Lamar's career, earlier-ish in Lamar's career, when he was still kind of struggling against those sorts of looks, Lou used to do that to him all the time. He used to either bring the cover to cover zero or they would drop out of it I mean there were how many Interceptions or near interceptions did lamar throw? It's like a dropping logan wilson like early in his tenure as the starter and so The the bengals kind of turning back the clock a little bit and doing a little bit more of that I think those sorts of levers are the things you should try to pull against the ravens Because if you try to just line up and play like derrick's talking about I think it's going to be a long day Even if the ravens have been a little bit disappointing recently All right before we move on we're going to take one more quick break

39:39let's get to the last game on the thanksgiving ish slates the black friday matchup between the eight and three chicago bears traveling to play the eight and three philadelphia eagles let's start with the eagles offense against the bears defense in this game derrick what do you got for me same thing that we were just talking about with like if the if the ravens couldn't do it against that defense when are they ever going to do it that's how i feel with the Eagles rushing offense against this Bears run defense I had no you don't understand the linebackers are getting healthier it's gonna be they're not though Tremaine Edmonds is on IR and Robert knows full well even when they were healthy they were not playing their best ball this year anyway um this so since week eight um which has been about the last month or so the Eagles have a 36.3 percent rushing success rate which is 25th in the league behind the Houston Texans, only 21, 21.6 % of their runs go for a first down, which is 28th in the NFL.

40:38This is, again, I said it on the Sunday show. This is an offense that they built the whole thing to, we can run the ball at any team for any amount of time deep into the game and win. They cannot do that right now. The bears, however, are a team that almost anybody can run against. And so I think Ville, if they're, they need to be able to get it together. Also the other minor thing in this Devonta Smith is a little bit banged up and potentially is like in jeopardy for this game and so if we end up in a spot where all the Eagles have is AJ Brown and the Bears can just be like all right we're not going to let that guy beat us we're going to cloud that side of the coverage or whatever I don't trust the Eagles passing offense and so they kind of need to be able to just run the ball down the throat of this Bears defense I'll be curious to see who plays and who doesn't I think that's going to be a big part of this so if you look at it obviously we've only had Tuesday practice reports.

41:26We're recording this at 1150 a.m. on Wednesday. TJ Edwards and Noah Sewell did not practice on Wednesday or on Tuesday. We just mentioned it. Tremaine Edmonds is on IR. Ruben Hippolyte, who was one of the backup linebackers who played last week, he also did not practice on Tuesday. And so now you're down your top four linebackers or four of the top five, however you want to put it. So that's something to keep an eye on. Like even if the Eagles run rushing offense has been struggling and the Bears run defense is bad, the Bears run defense might be even worse than it has been recently because of how many injuries they have at linebacker.

42:00And so that's absolutely worth keeping in mind. From a health perspective, the other thing we're throwing out, it does seem like the corners have a chance to play. So Kyler Gordon was a full participant on Tuesday. Jalen Johnson was a full participant on Tuesday. They kept both of them out last week. Tyree Stevenson did not practice on Tuesday. So we're like two steps forward, one step back here with every member of the Bears position groups on defense, but it is going to be a mash unit going against an Eagles offense that even if they've struggled, I agree with Derek. If they can't take advantage of this, then we're going to have to start sounding some real alarm bells if we weren't already.

42:37This actually might be like, I know we're going to cut down the table again probably at some point, but this is like if the Eagles offense can't do it against this defense, I'm like done with them as a contender. I know the defense is awesome and I know that they've rallied before. I don't care. I'm so over it. Who are you more done with? Who are you more done with if they underwhelm this week? Baltimore against Cincinnati or Philadelphia against Chicago? Philadelphia against Chicago. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. I just because I think and we have tension. Let's go. Because to me, you lay this out. I'm curious why I'm curious why you think this way.

43:12I have a very specific and easy answer to mine. So I still hate the Eagles offense, But at least if I'm going to pick what is the best side of the ball of these four teams, I can at least convince myself that the Eagles defense can just choke teams out for two or three games and like really go on a run with the the Ravens. If I watch Lamar and he still does not look like the athlete that he's supposed to, this offense is not going to ever get right if he's not right. Like he is the load bearing player for this offense. But that's my argument is that if he does get healthier over the course of the year, that is a very simple way to understand why the Ravens offense can be better.

43:47I think that is like for the Eagles, there's so many component things that are going wrong that it's harder to fix four or five specific things to get where you want to go on offense. But the Ravens, if Lamar, if that ankle suddenly feeling better by the time we get to New Year's and they win a shitty AFC North, that is just an easier fix than whatever the Eagles are dealing with right now. He just feels so snake bitten. I just can't get there. I just like, This is you being wounded and it's affecting your rationality. He's been on the injured report for like four different lower body things. Like he's just, I just don't think he's going to be right this year.

44:27Robert's 100 % right. And I'm like, you could be right, Derek. Maybe he won't be 100 % right. But it's easier to just sort of wait in the cut and be like, all right, if Lamar can get healthier, then the Ravens are a better team. Whereas the Eagles are the worst type of team to figure out where it's just like you can't point to one reason why they're underwhelming. It's eight different things and it could be a different one every single week. So, but I think Robert's right. And I think you're hedging against your your belief in the Ravens. Like you just don't want to get hurt by the Ravens. Even when Lamar was healthy, this team had infrastructural problems like the offensive line wasn't good.

45:06They don't know what they're doing in the run game. The Ravens definitely have all of that stuff going on. But if Lamar looks like Lamar, then it matters a hell of a lot less. That's fair. I agree with that. There are some shades of similarity between them. The fact that the run game hasn't been what we have come to expect from them in years past. But I think that the Ravens passing offense when Lamar is healthy, I still just have so much more faith in that than whatever's happening to the Eagles. And I do think that we probably should have spent more time on this when we did the table. We chose four teams that we were going to put through just to put through, and I completely understand why we did it.

45:39But there is a difference between the Eagles offense in the back half of this season and the Eagles offense in the back half of last season. And that major difference is, even when the passing game was struggling and A.J. Brown's reading books on the sideline and we're freaking out every single week, they ran the ball at will. They cannot do that now. And so all of these different frustrations that are happening when they're throwing are even more magnified because they can't rely on anything else. And so that faith that, oh, the Eagles will just figure this out. They'll come out on the other side of it.

46:10I think it's a little bit misguided because this is a fundamentally different set of problems than it was last year when they ended up figuring it out. And I think that's at least worth acknowledging probably more than we have. But for, you know, for the sake of conversation, I think we did that for a reason. But as we move into the final six or seven weeks and we think about where all these teams actually sit, table or not, I feel like that's a really important thing to sit in a little bit. I'm going to handle the other side of the ball here when the Bears offense has the ball against the Eagles defense.

46:43I have a surprising stat for you. It was shocking to me when I looked it up and saw this. You know, the Eagles are dead last in the NFL and EPA per drop back against play action this year. That is kind of shocking. Dead last. I would not have guessed. No. Dead last. How often are teams doing it against them? A decent amount. A decent amount. I mean, it's, it's, and the Cowboys had a ton of success doing it last week. I think Dak was 9 of 11 on play action dropbacks last week. And as you mentioned, Derek, or Dave did, CeeDee Lamb dropped the crossing route off play action at one point. And so it should have been better than that.

47:18And it's interesting because we don't need to delve too much into this, but I do think the kind of bigger picture machinations of it are interesting. When teams like the Rams were going away from play action in like 2020 and 2021, one. Part of it was because teams on the other side, defense on the other side, when they're playing all this umbrella coverage, those backside safeties were kind of sliding down into a lot of those big crossing routes that you used to be able to hit against single high coverages. And so some of these big play action crossers that you were getting for chunks weren't as effective as defenses started playing more too high structures.

47:57And so the Eagles live that way, right? Wouldn't it make sense that they're a team that would be able to take away a lot of those throws. But part of the problem is when you watch it anecdotally, because they're playing in those two high structures and they need the safeties to get into the run fit, when you're run faking, these guys are flying off the roof and then those crossing routes are coming back behind them. And so there is a lot of space in the intermediate area of the field when you play the Eagles, because those guys are having to be so aggressive coming downhill. And so you're combining that now with Makuba being hurt.

48:33Sidney Brown's going to play for him this week. Reid Blankenship is banged up. And so now it's becoming even more difficult. And a lot of the plays that you're seeing is in-breaking routes with Adorey Jackson in coverage on those in-breaking routes. And so it's that, those two things combined. It's the safeties vacating that space and it's teams being able to take advantage of Adorey Jackson on some of those in-breakers. The one thing I'll say, and just the bare side of this, only Jared Goff has completed more play action dropbacks to the middle, or only Jared Goff has more play action throws to the middle of the field this season than Caleb Williams.

49:03So the Bears are going to do this at an alarming rate, and the Eagles have not been good at it. When you watch some of the plays that George Pickens made specifically last week, the Bears, we talked about the weapons on Sunday night. I like a lot of what the young weapons have done. The one thing that he has to be better at in general, and we have to see it in this game, Roman Dunze is going to be the guy on a lot of those plays. He has to be better at the catch point than he has been this year. if they're going to make those three or four contested plays that have kind of been 50 50 shots for them over the course of the season I do think the Bears are going to have a couple of those chunks in the middle of the field over the course of this thing I agree and also I think the other thing is it's not just the safeties having to fly down into the run fit if you watch the Dallas game specifically the young linebackers cats chasing the laser sometimes like I think Jihad Campbell is really good in coverage on pure pass like when he knows his pass and he can get his depth and all that stuff or turn and run as the pole player.

49:58But both him and N 'Kobe Dean are very like, if they see run, they're going. N 'Kobe Dean, especially like he plays like a heat seeking missile. So he's going to give you a lot of space in the middle of the field. Even if you go back to the Lions game, the Lions were five of 10 on play action in that game against the Eagles. The five incompletions were batted pass, Jared Goff taking a frontside throw when he actually had the backside in breaker, a naked that got blown up, a screen that got blown up and a play where they left Jalex Hunt unblocked coming off the edge. if you block it up on play action against this team, Philadelphia, you're going to have some opportunities.

50:30If you guys are picking up on anything with my tone here, it's been an issue I've had over the last like 72 hours where, and I said this on Twitter on Monday, the Eagles have been just frustrating enough on offense and the Bears season is just weird enough where I'm getting ideas about this potentially being a competitive game. And I, it's just a horrifying place to be. I could, could they win an ugly game? Yes, absolutely. they could win like a mildly ugly game. Could they give up 45 points to the Eagles offense because of the state of the defense? Yes, that could also happen. The range of outcomes here is very wide and it's wide enough for me to have like this kernel of optimism while also understanding the very real downside element of this.

51:13I feel like I'm watching the Matrix right now where Morpheus is like, he's starting to believe. Like that's what Robert's going through right now. Like you're talking yourself into being able to beat the reigning champs on the road. And that is a completely plausible belief, by the way. Like the Eagles have not looked like world beaters in the vast majority of their games. This is the emotional process you go through when your team's record far outpaces the quality of the team, is that even if intellectually you understand that they still have a long way to go in a lot of areas, when you see them continue to win, there becomes an expectation that they might just keep winning.

51:55And so there's this weird push and pull that happens when you have a team like this. And that's precisely where the eight and three bears with a negative point differential are right now. All right, on that note, and by the way, I tell you guys this, I'm going to be watching this game from like a random sports bar in Florida. Well, I'm well aware. I can't wait to hear all about it. You're going to be unwell in front of tens of people that you have no idea who they are? Well, what happened was we drove down here for Thanksgiving because I wanted to bring the dog, right? We've had her for three months.

52:24My wife's family hasn't really met her yet. And I was like, we'll drive down. The drive down was actually lovely. We listened to podcasts for like 20 hours and just like talked to my wife for two days. It was really nice. But she's flying back. And so she can spend a little bit more time with her family and I'm driving back. And I was like, I'll drive home Friday, Saturday, Black Friday, Saturday, be great. I'll be settled for the week 13 Sunday slate. Not thinking about the fact that the Bears were playing on Black Friday. and so I can't stay in Miami and watch the whole game because the game will be over at like 5.30 and then I have a 10 and a half hour drive to Atlanta or whatever it is, like I'll be there at 2 a.m.

52:59And so my plan is I'm actually doing half the drive in the morning before the game and then stopping in like Gainesville to watch the game. And so it's gonna be me and Frankie out at a patio at some random sports bar in Gainesville as I'm like having a crisis over how this game goes. weird thing about me. That is my favorite way to watch a football game. It is like, like, and, and I don't want to go to a busy sports bar. Like I don't want to go to my team's sports bar where they like play bear down Chicago bears and have like bears themed drinks. No, I want to go to a sports bar where nobody cares that my game is on.

53:40And I'm just like sitting in the corner, losing my mind. and I can tell the bartender to like adjust the volume and I can just sort of be a maniac in my own private corner of the bar. Like that is the ideal way to watch a sporting event for me personally. I could not agree with that more. It's exactly how I feel about it. And I'm really looking forward to it. How my dog handles with the ups and downs of that day and my emotions, that's really the only thing I'm curious about. She hasn't seen me. She hasn't watched me watch a lot of football because we watch from the studio. And so this is going to be the first Bears game.

54:16I think she's seen me watch where she's like sitting next to me the whole time. So hopefully I don't scare her like four or five times over the course of the game. All right, that's all we've got for this one. We will be back tomorrow with a preview of the rest of the week 13 slate. We're hitting three games from that slate plus a collection of games that we think fall into kind of a similar bucket. So not the best remaining collection of week 13 games, but we've got plenty of stuff to hit tomorrow. So come back, spend the time with us for now. Enjoy your Thanksgiving. Enjoy the games. And we'll be back right here tomorrow.