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The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL

9 Jul 2025 · 1h · 22 chapters

Episode artwork

The hopeful stories teams are telling themselves this season

In short

The Athletic Football Show (Robert Mays and Derek) discusses the “hopeful stories” NFL teams tell themselves in the offseason—non-transactional narratives fans/analysts need to buy into before training camp.

Guests

Derek (co-host/analyst; no further identifying details in transcript). Robert Mays is the host.

Key claims and notable examples

  1. Rams: Puna Ford will fix run defense, enabling the defense’s pass rush to create more third-and-7+ situations. Last year: Rams 23rd run defense success rate; 29th in tackles for losses/run stuff; only 84 third-and-7+ pass-rush downs (fewest). Back-half improvement (weeks 10-18: 18th).
  2. Bears: Ben Johnson can salvage Caleb Williams with a better system and coaching. Concerns: left tackle depth (Braxton Jones/Trapillo), receiver uncertainty (Roma Dunsday), and Johnson’s transition to play-calling head coach.
  3. Jaguars: Liam Cohen’s offense and an improved offensive line will unlock Trevor Lawrence. Concerns: interior/consistency and the higher stakes due to Lawrence’s $50M/year contract.
  4. Giants/Browns/Vikings/Bills: Giants rely on Russell Wilson/Jackson Dart sitting; Browns rely on “Deshaun Watson problem” being over; Vikings believe defensive back talent “doesn’t matter” as safety/corner depth changes; Bills believe their break will come if they stay the course (incremental aggression, defense still a question).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

0:54

Exploring Offseason Narratives

Discussion on the stories teams tell themselves during the offseason.

“And to think, that's just a small taste of what Schwab offers.”
2:42

Exploring Offseason Narratives

Discussion on the stories teams tell themselves during the offseason.

“Today, we're really going to explore the offseason and what the offseason really means for teams.”
4:04

The Rams' Defensive Hopes

Analyzing how the Rams are relying on Puna Ford to improve their defense.

“I want to make this very clear from the outset.”
5:32

Optimism for Rams Defense

Discussion on the potential improvement of the Rams' defense based on last season's performance.

“So basically any run that goes zero or less.”
7:44

Bears' Future with Caleb Williams

Exploration of the Bears' hopes for Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson.

“Like I do think they're going to, and I don't think they're going to be some world beating run defense or anything like that.”
10:16

Concerns for Bears' Season

Discussion on the challenges and potential pitfalls for the Bears this season.

“I just I mean, 35 to 35 games are fun, but I don't want the Rams to have to live that way every single week, the way that we saw from Washington last year or the Bengals last year.”
14:03

Caleb Williams and Rookie Quarterbacks

A discussion on the challenges rookie quarterbacks face and the potential for success with Caleb Williams.

“quarterback show that I was comparing the Jared Goff rookie year and the Trevor Lawrence rookie year to the Caleb Williams rookie year.”
25:37

Giants' Quarterback Situation

Analyzing the Giants' current quarterback dilemmas and their strategies for improvement.

“All right, so that Jags one was your second one.”
28:00

Giants' Offense and Defense Challenges

Exploring the Giants' self-delusions about their offensive and defensive strategies.

“And so it's interesting that on both sides of the ball, they got to sell themselves on a whole lot of stuff.”
29:20

Quarterback Concerns for the Giants

Discussion on the doubts surrounding the Giants' quarterbacks and offensive line.

“I will just say I'm a little bit more skeptical about this collection of stories than I am about the first couple that we talked about.”
Show all 22 chapters
31:31

Browns' Hope for Quarterback Improvement

The Browns are banking on a turnaround by addressing their quarterback issues.

“The other stuff that we have in place is good enough to keep rolling with is the Browns.”
33:39

Vikings' Secondary Strategy

The Vikings’ unconventional approach to their defensive back talent this season.

“And I know the offensive line was better and they had Nick Chubb and all this other stuff.”
36:50

Bills' Self-Confidence Amidst Stagnation

The Bills are trying to convince themselves that patience will yield success.

“So I, that's a good one because I do think it obviously can't buy them made more money guaranteed.”
42:00

Discipline in Team Decisions

Explore the discipline shown by teams like the Ravens and Bills in their strategic decisions this offseason.

“And the funniest part about this, the Ravens are doing the exact same thing.”
43:34

Raiders' Running Game Analysis

A deep dive into the Raiders' running game issues and the potential for improvement this season.

“gone back and forth with for a lot of the offseason.”
45:28

Running Back Performance Metrics

Understanding running back performance through advanced metrics and expectations.

“less of an offensive line problem than other things.”
47:18

Offensive Line and Rushing Offense

Discussing how the Raiders' offensive line impacts their rushing offense and future potential.

“It's more like, Oh, I like these guys more than I thought.”
51:01

NFC Teams' Optimistic Outlook

Analyzing how the Buccaneers and Washington are positioning themselves as competitive teams in the NFC.

“Like this Eagles team feels invincible to everybody else.”
56:00

Evaluating Draft Decisions and Offense Success

A discussion on the effectiveness of recent draft picks and their impact on the team's offensive performance.

“He didn't quite get there, but that's in part because Bucky Irving just overshadowed him as a really good player.”
58:10

The Outlook on Bryce Young and Team Narratives

Exploring the optimism around Bryce Young's potential and team narratives driving belief in his future success.

“then the other ones i had were just some other small ones we've talked about and probably the The closest that I could have for one is like the Panthers really have to tell themselves that there is more to Bryce Young.”
1:02:00

Comparing Team Strategies: Cardinals vs. Seahawks

A comparison of the Cardinals and Seahawks' strategies for improvement and the narratives they are constructing.

“I'm going to see 25 teams this year, which I think is a record.”
1:04:58

Comparing Team Strategies: Cardinals vs. Seahawks

A comparison of the Cardinals and Seahawks' strategies for improvement and the narratives they are constructing.

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Transcript

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1:26Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We've got a fun show for you guys today. Something a little bit different as we are deep into the darkest part of the offseason here. I've noticed this over the past few years. I actually touched on it when I was on Bill Barnwell's show a little bit earlier this week. But I think when we get to July, we start looking forward rather than backward. Right. Fan bases start talking themselves into how this can all work out because they're far enough removed from the disappointments at the end of last season. It's not as fresh the shortcomings of your team.

2:01Robert Mays: And now it's a lot easier to sit in why these moves are going to work out, why it's all going to come together, why your team's plan this offseason was actually the right plan. And so that's what me and Derek are talking about today. We are digging into some of the stories that teams have had to tell themselves this offseason and have to tell themselves going in to this year in order to sleep well at night. Like all this stuff that we did, these big swings that we took, this is why they're going to work out. So that's what we did today. We picked like six or eight stories that teams are having to tell themselves as we head into the 2025 season.

2:39Robert Mays: Really enjoyed this conversation with Derek. Let's get to it right now.

2:47Robert Mays: Today, we're really going to explore the offseason and what the offseason really means for teams. And this isn't about transactions. This isn't about anything practical. This is more about some of those intangible, less definable elements that define every single offseason. And that's just these stories that teams kind of have to tell themselves about how the season is going to go. The moves have been done, right? The die is cast. There's really nothing left that these teams can do to better themselves. So we're just sitting here to live with the decisions that have been made. And right around now, you can kind of feel it with fan bases.

3:25Robert Mays: Now we've gone from the what needs to get better to all of the stuff is fixed, full steam ahead. And so that's what we're doing today. We're going to dig into some of these stories and some of these, some potential lies that teams have to tell themselves about the upcoming season because they've made their beds and there's really nothing left to be done about it. I'm excited for this one because there are we have to tell ourselves stories as analysts to like buy into certain teams or why we should trash certain teams or whatever it is. So to try to flip that around a little bit and try to get in their heads and try to get into why they're telling themselves their stories.

4:03It's I've got some ones I'm excited to get into.

4:06Robert Mays: I want to make this very clear from the outset. I am buying some of these, or at least I'm not outright dismissing them. So I don't want it to be framed as these are lies teams are telling themselves, or these are far-fetched stories that teams are telling themselves. Some of these will likely come true, but either way, they're a necessity for these teams as we get to the eve of training camp. Yeah, like there, there's definitely some in here that I started immediately with like, they're telling themselves this story, but I don't buy it. But there are a couple where I'm like, the more I look at it, the more I'm actually starting to buy it.

4:41And I understand the story they're trying to tell me.

4:43Robert Mays: So let's why don't you kick this off? What is the first story that you wanted to dig into that a team has to tell themselves at this point in the calendar? So I think for me, one of the most interesting teams going into this year is the Rams and specifically their defense. And I think the story that they are telling themselves is that Puna Ford is going to fix the run defense and that's going to let them do all the stuff they want to do at the pass rush. And that's going to paper over a secondary that's still not very talented. And we kept thinking they were going to trade for Jalen Ramsey. And that ship has sailed.

5:13Jalen Ramsey is off the market now. So that's not going to happen. And they really have to tell themselves the story. And I kind of want to backtrack to how bad it really was last year to really get into the frame of mind of like how important I think this is for that Rams defense. They were 23rd in run defense success rate last year. And that dropped to 25th specifically on first downs. They were 27th in yards before contact allowed, and they were 29th in tackles for losses plus run stuff. So basically any run that goes zero or less. And the reason that's important is that the best thing that this Rams defense does is get after the passer.

5:48But because the run defense was so bad, they weren't actually allowed to get into those down in distances they wanted. So I went and looked at this and I looked at how often were teams getting into third down and seven yards plus. Like true, no, no, nothing about it. This is a pass rush down. Nobody had fewer of those plays than the Los Angeles Rams. And it's unfortunate because that's obviously the best thing that they do. And just for reference, the Rams had 84 of those plays last year. The Broncos led the league with 129, which was kind of actually insane. The Texans were in second at 116. And so the difference between them and the Texans is like two plays a game, which doesn't sound like a lot.

6:28But hey, man, I would love two more plays a game of Jared Versch getting after the passer, Braden Fisk, Chris Shula cooking up something like that could literally change a game. And the fact that they couldn't get there, I think, did hurt them a lot. And they're hoping that Puna Ford helps them out a lot there.

6:42Robert Mays: It's a great observation about the Broncos specifically, because I don't think we really tie those things together where if you stop the run, you get to rush the passer like those two things are intertwined. And just think about how many sacks the Broncos had last year. They had 63 sacks, which led the league. And so it helps to have those sorts of situations in order to stack up those sack numbers. The Rams, with the great pass rushers that they have and the great pass rush potential that they have, finished the season with 38 total sacks, in part because they weren't in those situations. Here's the optimistic spin, and let me play devil's advocate a little bit.

7:17Robert Mays: In the back half of the year, this run defense and this defense period did get better. and so overall in the back half of last season weeks 10 through 18 they were 18th in run defense success rate so do you think that the younger pieces and just chris shula being in year one as a defensive coordinator and them going from definitively a bottom half of the league defense in the first half of the year to an acceptable level in the second half of the year does that give you any hope about the overall trajectory of this unit moving forward it does because this is one that I actually am kind of buying.

7:52And obviously they did. Oh, nice. Okay. Yeah, I am kind of buying it. Like I do think they're going to, and I don't think they're going to be some world beating run defense or anything like that. But obviously they lost Bobby Brown this off season, who I think is a nice player. But if Puna Ford maintains his level of play, he's an upgrade over that. I think we can probably project some degree of development from guys like Braden Fisk and Jared. I mean, Jared versus already a good run defender, but there's a chance that he continues to get better and then you mentioned Chris Shula like I really think by the second half of the season and we see this a lot with young defensive play callers that they really start to get into a groove for how they want to call things and again I'm going to bring up that Vikings game for the millionth time but them being able to stop the run in that game and then get into some of the stuff they wanted with some of the pass rush stuff I don't know if it's going to look that good every week next year but that's what you want to tell yourself that you can get up more of those games.

8:41And I think we will. This is the problem with using those examples

8:45Robert Mays: late into the season is that you can, you can try to tell yourself, Oh, this is an indication of what's to come. But on the other side of it, well, the Vikings rushing offense was cratering at that point in the year. So how real is that on either side? But I think the Rams, obviously with how many young players they have, sometimes we get in trouble by doing this, or we project a big step forward. The last thing I'll ask you about this Rams team in this situation, how much better would you feel about the Rams defense if like Rasul Douglas was on the Rams by the time week one started? Probably a good amount, actually.

9:18And like I get Rasul Douglas, the fact that corners are this late on the market, I think Stefan Gilmore is still out there if they wanted to do that. But like truthfully, if they signed one of those guys, I would go from, I don't know, shaky to being like, OK, the pass rush will be enough to let this secondary get away with what they got to get away with.

9:36Robert Mays: We hadn't really addressed the Rams part of the Jalen Ramsey trade to the Steelers because that was kind of the last domino to talk about because we kind of just assumed, at least I had, I'd kind of put Rams defense conversations on the back burner because I didn't want to make any grand proclamations about them before the Jalen Ramsey shoe dropped. Now that it has, it's like, all right, well, they still probably need another corner for this all to come together. Or we're really relying on a Kelo Weatherspoon to make this work. Again, I think they'll probably be fine on that side of the ball, but I'm just imagining the upside on offense.

10:08Robert Mays: And I just want them to balance that out with a capable defense that can allow this team to compete at the highest level in the NFC. Exactly. I just I mean, 35 to 35 games are fun, but I don't want the Rams to have to live that way every single week, the way that we saw from Washington last year or the Bengals last year. I just don't want it to be that bad. I want there to be at least a handful of games next year where the Rams can just win 28 to 13. And we're all feeling good about how well the defense played. I've got a couple here that I want to start off with that were the first ones I thought of when we were going to do this exercise.

10:43Robert Mays: And let's just start close to home because this is the one that I've thought about the most this offseason. I think it's pretty clear. The story the Bears are telling themselves is that Ben Johnson can salvage Caleb Williams and can get the most out of him after the Bears built their entire future around this player. They passed on the quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. They stumbled into the number one pick in a year where there was supposed to be this transcendent quarterback prospect comes in last year. And the overall production is disappointing. We've talked so much about why that was the case and about the context around his play.

11:16Robert Mays: But if you look at the numbers purely, they were bad. It was a very bad passing offense overall. And so they go out and they get Ben Johnson kind of trying to rectify a mistake they made last offseason by not building the correct coaching staff around Caleb Williams. And so the story the Bears have to tell themselves is this is going to work now. We have the quarterback who's good enough with the right situation. And now we've given him the right situation. And the key thing I've kept coming back to over the last few months is I get that. I think I am buying into that. If that story ends up proving to be false, I don't know what I'm going to do.

11:54I don't know what I'm going to do for you. Like, I just I feel like if it starts to unravel by like week seven or eight, we're going to start having some weird shows with how we're going to have to talk about Caleb Williams and the Bears and all that stuff. But this is another one where I didn't want to put this down because, like, of course you were going to put this down. So I was going to let you have it, but I'm I'm also buying it, man. And like, I really like Ben Johnson. And I think obviously the corollary everyone's going to go back to is Sean McVay stepping into the Rams for Jared Goff and stuff like that.

12:24And that one's a funny one, because I don't think it there's a very low chance it looks that good right away. Right. Like Caleb Williams is super talented and Ben Johnson's a great play caller. But that was like a truly special one year transformation. We just don't see a lot of those. It was also just a type of offense that caught people off guard.

12:42Robert Mays: Like, I just don't think anybody was ready for how to combat that. So even if I think Ben Johnson could put a sound capable system together, I don't think he's going to like revolutionize offensive football in the NFL in a single offseason. So I don't think it's going to be quite the force of nature that those 2017 Rams felt like early on. That's such a good point, because I remember writing even when he took the job with the Rams and looking back at some of McVay's stuff with Washington. I was like, nobody's really doing tight formation stuff from under center the way that they are. And obviously that was only part of why they were good.

13:14But Ben Johnson doesn't necessarily have like a thing that's on the forefront like that. He's just a really good play caller and pieces things together well and understands what he wants out of his offensive line. The flip side of why it there you can sell me on why it might look that good is I do think a lot of what Caleb Williams showed, even though there was inconsistencies and a lot of bad habits, was way better than what Jared Goff showed as a rookie. Like Jared Goff looked like legitimately unplayable. Caleb Williams looked bad with nice flashes. And so that I do think gives you some degree of hope.

13:43Again, why you can start to buy into this offensive line is going to be better. We know Ben Johnson is going to use his players better than specifically the receivers than we saw last year. And I think that's going to go a long way. So this is definitely one where they're telling themselves a story, but I'm telling it to myself and I'm kind of buying it.

13:59Robert Mays: I want to be clear because I think some people have thought when we did that second year quarterback show that I was comparing the Jared Goff rookie year and the Trevor Lawrence rookie year to the Caleb Williams rookie year. It was more about trying to provide the right feeling for the situation that they were in, where you could clearly see those guys as rookies were just trying to keep their heads above water because of what they were dealing with schematically within that offense. The numbers are not nearly as bad for the Bears offense with Caleb Williams as they were with the Rams offense with Jared Goff as a rookie.

14:27Robert Mays: So I'm with you. They're starting from a better position than those offenses were. So we'll see what happens. Like this is the biggest, this is one of the biggest stories of the off season that a team has had to tell themselves. And I think that there's a lot of validity to it. Now we'll see if it ends up turning out to be true. I want to ask you a question before we, we end it outside of Caleb Williams, just not having it, like just not being good enough. What would be the reason that makes you think it wouldn't go right this year for this collection of, of players and coaches? That's a great question.

14:57Robert Mays: I think more inconsistency at left tackle than you want. Like, let's say Braxton Jones isn't ready. You're starting Trapillo at left tackle from the start of the season. He's a second round pick. We know that that can go awry. I actually do have some faith in Ben Johnson being able to protect one single offensive lineman if there is one weak link. But that is the personnel thing that I would be worried about the most. We'll see what happens with the receivers. Like, I think I have a lot of hope for Roma Dunze. But is there a chance that Roma Dunsday's struggles last year were about more than the offensive situation?

15:28Robert Mays: I think it's really hard to get a feel about a receiver when they're in that sort of situation, because think about how many uncatchable targets went Roma Dunsday's way. It's hard to even understand what he was as a rookie. So I think the uncertainty around that is probably the other personnel thing that I would mention. And the last one is just the transition from being a specific offensive coordinator to being a play calling head coach. There are just so many more things on your plate. The hand he's going to have and how the offense is designed, how the offense is constructed, where he can spend his time in meetings.

15:58Robert Mays: We've just seen this happen before where guys who had what felt like a magic touch as coordinators, as their scope grows, they just don't, they can't find it again. And I'm not saying he's going to be a bad play caller in almost any of these scenarios, but even if he's 75 % as good as he was in Detroit, does that lead to an outcome where we're a little bit underwhelmed by this? That's a good point. Cause like 75 % of Ben Johnson is still like solid, but that's not what you hired him to be. You hired him to be a hundred percent of Ben Johnson and like truly give you one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.

16:32So I just had to pick your brain a little bit on like, what, what are the parts of it outside of Caleb that are keeping you?

16:37Robert Mays: I hadn't really thought about that that much because I do think that they've done a good enough job of setting the floor with pretty much all 11 starters. but the left tackle situation is the, are the past catchers as good as we want them to be in a good situation? And then what does it look like for Ben Johnson as a play caller? Does he have the right people around him? Just the rhythms of the week, like how much he's going to be able to spend time on the offense, all of that stuff that they're going to be sorting through in year one with almost an entirely new staff. The other one that I would say is similar to this, by the way, the Jaguars are having to tell themselves a very similar story about Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen.

17:13i i have that one on my list so we can just jump straight to that let's get into it and so mine actually was like half liam cohen and half like they have to sell themselves that this offensive line is going to be good enough and that was actually more the angle that i took on it and credit to them for going in and trying to make a move for robert hainsey and patrick mccari and trying to fill these roles but ezra cleveland is a guy who the vikings moved on from and i've made I've made this point a million times. Vikings guards are very bad. And they spent this offseason being like, we'll spend any amount of resource to get new guards.

17:47Robert Hainsey was a backup in Tampa or ended up being pushed to backup in Tampa Bay because they wanted a first round center. And they had to be replaced on purpose. Yes, he was replaced.

17:57Robert Mays: They drafted a first round center because he was not good enough for them. That is worth acknowledging. Exactly. And like he can still be, you know, the 25th best center in the league and get pushed out and, you know, whatever. But it's he was not good enough to hold the starting job in an offensive line that became one of the best in the league. And I think that's important. And then Patrick McCary, you know, he's the perfect great bandaid replacement. I don't know if he's like a long term solution for them. And obviously, you know, maybe neither of these players are even starting for them two years from now.

18:27And it doesn't matter. But if they're trying to sell themselves on this year one jumpstart of like this is going to be the year for Trevor Lawrence. Travis Hunter is going to be awesome for us. Brian Thomas Jr. is going to ascend into one of the best receivers in the league. You kind of need this offensive line to really take a step forward. And I will say, I think about a month ago, I was probably a little bit more skittish about the tackles than I am right now. I think they might be fine, but I just do think there's a world where this interior is not quite good enough unless Liam Cohen is really, really insane with his run game stuff.

18:59And we talked about it before. That might be true. But this is a different interior that he's working with now than he had in Tampa Bay.

19:05Robert Mays: To bring it back to the conversation that we just had. this offensive line in terms of build and quality and in terms of the bets that they're making individually across the five spots you know what it kind of reminds me of the bears offensive line heading into last year oh no oh no do you get what i'm saying so good i absolutely so let's look at the individual spots so you have like a young left tackle that has been fine and you're kind of betting on obviously walker little is deeper into his career than braxton jones was but i think what you're shooting for a left tackle is we can live with this like that's what you're going for with Walker a little at left guard as a Cleveland is like in the, uh, television, uh, Tevin Jenkins kind of mold where it's just like, all right, you know, like this is, this is fine.

19:44Robert Mays: The Robert Hainsey thing is kind of like the Coleman Shelton signing from last year. Like they're in the same vein with free agent centers that you're getting. Uh, McCary, I think is kind of similar in price and what you're paying is what Nate Davis was. And there's a little bit of projection with McCary because he hasn't been a starter. He's kind of been a swing guy. He was thrust into a starting role last year in Baltimore and played well, but I think, you know, same sort of pay structure in the same sort of range you're paying those guys in. And then Anton Harrison is like exactly darn all right.

20:13Robert Mays: He's going to his third year as a first round pick. And I think what makes this so interesting is that even if the talent level collectively is probably the same, and I think people overstated how bad the Bears line was last year from a talent perspective, this is a moment where the situation can make one group look so much better than they are, rather than the Bears looking so much worse than they were. So I think some Jacks fans hearing me say that their skin might crawl, but because the coaching is going to be so much better than it was in Chicago last year, I think you could potentially get by with this talent level of the offensive line where you couldn't with the Bears last season.

20:50It's a great point because we talked about that a lot last year where, you know, I don't know if I'm just throwing out random numbers. If we go from that exact offensive line talent level, having the 25th best play caller with a guy like Shane Waldman to now let's just say Liam Cohen is the 12th or 13th. You don't have an elite play caller, but man, that's a good enough difference to allow this like a band-aid unit type of offensive line with a couple of young players you need to take a step to be good enough. And I do think specifically, you know, I think we saw a lot, there were a lot of issues with Waldron's offense, but part of it was that the run game just never felt like it had any dynamism to it.

21:27That is not going to be an issue with Liam Cohen. I think Liam Cohen is going to bring in some really cool shit to Jacksonville and whether or not they can execute it, we'll see. But I do think the ideas are going to be way more fleshed out than we saw from Chicago last year.

21:38Robert Mays: And I also think the same considerations with whether Ben Johnson can keep this rolling as a play calling head coach extends to Liam Cohen. And there are more concerns and questions about Liam Cohen, because we've seen him do this one time. He's done this for one year. And there have been other examples in the past where you have this one year spike from a play caller. And that's maybe not an indication of what's to come. The fact that Ben Johnson did this for pretty much two and a half years, I guess that's what I would say. Dan Campbell was involved in the play calling process in the second half of the 22 season, but I still feel like Ben Johnson had that offense changed when Ben Johnson started calling plays.

22:14Robert Mays: It was a very exciting offense in the back half of 2022. So the fact that Liam Cohen's only done it for a year, I think there's added doubt about how this is going to go. The difference between the bear situation and the Jag situation with the quarterbacks is the Jags already paid this guy. Like they've paid him$50 million a year. They need this to work out. Trevor Lawrence is going to be the Jaguars quarterback for a while when you look at how that contract is structured and what those option bonuses look like, et cetera. So Liam Cohen, they need this to work almost even more than the Bears needed to work with Caleb Williams because even if the Bears have constructed this whole thing around Caleb Williams working out, you can move on from him two years from now if you have to the Jags are in a little bit of a different situation with how tied they are to Trevor Lawrence that's a really good point like if this doesn't work out for them this is like nuclear levels levels of bad and I again you can live with it yeah Trevor Lawrence is not you would it wasn't the 29th best quarterback in the league last year like Caleb Williams was but you're paying him 50 million dollars a year exactly but and that's the thing like if it doesn't work out you're gonna be in the spot that like the Dolphins are at with Tua Tungavailoa or where the Rams were at the end of the Jared Goff thing where it's like we paid a lot of money for a guy I'm not sure is good enough for us and I do think for as much as I've defended Trevor Lawrence for a while now if the play calling looks relatively good as it did from Liam Cohen as it did in Tampa Bay and Trevor's still not playing as well as he needs to I I'll start to actually have some concerns about like maybe he's just not who I thought he was you're gonna have a hard time counselor if that ends up if it unfolds that way you're gonna have a hard time to be clear I'm all I'm still in that camp as well like I still do believe that he can look better than he's ever been with somebody like Liam Cohen there but if it doesn't turn out that way I think we're gonna have to be start backpedaling in a hurry we're gonna have to have Beller start deleting some episodes from the backlog if this does not go very well this year we're gonna take our first break here and get back with a few more stories that teams are having to tell themselves this offseason football season has arrived and with the U.S.

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25:42Robert Mays: All right, so that Jags one was your second one. Let me roll out my second one. the Giants have had to tell themselves that they just had a Daniel Jones problem yeah I I'm so glad I want to I want you to keep going on this one because I had a Giants I had like a more specific Giants one but keep going when you keep the head coach and the play caller oh excuse me when you keep the head coach and the GM for an offense that has been as bad consistently as the Giants have over the last few years essentially since that surprise season that first year from Brian Dable. You have to be telling yourself the quarterback was the problem.

26:18Robert Mays: The quarterback was the problem. Set aside the fact that they paid the quarterback and then they chose him to be the quarterback. That's a whole different conversation. But what the Giants, I think, have tried to sell, I'm assuming to ownership and to the fan base this entire spring summer about why this can be better is, well, we just need a different quarterback. And they've done it two different ways here. They've done it with the veteran kind of lateral move, but upgrade where it's like, well, Russ isn't going to be as bad as Daniel Jones. So even if we sit Jackson Dart for the entire year, Russell Wilson is still going to make this a more capable offense than Daniel Jones because Russell Wilson pushes the ball down the field.

26:54Robert Mays: That's the big difference here. And just imagine what Darius Slayton and Malik neighbors are going to be with a quarterback who, even if he's imperfect, is going to push the ball down the field. That's one of the stories. And then the other story is, well, of course, Russ isn't the ceiling that you eventually want, But that's why we took this guy in the first round. We're going to have the best of both worlds. We're going to be capable and competitive for this entire year. And this guy who needs a little bit of work, we're going to be able to sit him this year and then he'll play in 2026. And that's when things really get cooking.

27:25Robert Mays: So there are a lot of quarterback centric stories you're having to tell yourselves if you are the Giants right now. I don't even know which part of the quarterback thing I want to start with. Like the Russ thing, it's just we literally saw another team do like, honestly, I understand the Steelers trying it after the Denver thing with Russell Wilson right because you could you could tell yourself a million dollars exactly they paid him a million dollars and you could tell yourself the story like okay he was great in Seattle and it didn't work out in this one spot Denver brought in a new coach Sean Payton didn't want him you could tell yourself the story that that's why it went wrong but it happens again in Pittsburgh where it's not that good now the Giants are having to do it again it's like you're making a mistake that we just saw so I don't love that I guess the only cope is if you can really get yourself there on Russell Wilson being still a very good deep passer which he is or can be Malik neighbors and Darius Slayton is more exciting to me than what he's had the past three years in any of his spots so maybe that's the angle but again I'm sure that's what they're telling themselves I that one I don't know if I can get it's it's interesting though you went like all offense with the Giants my Giants one was going to be with this defense they're really selling themselves that a pass rush is going to fix every other issue.

28:39And so it's interesting that on both sides of the ball, they got to sell themselves on a whole lot of stuff.

28:44Robert Mays: I mean, the defense, the pass rush is going to solve issues, and they're hoping that the money that they've thrown around in the secondary, they're plugging enough holes and plugging enough leaks that it's going to make the pass rush worth it, right? Like if we go out and get, if we spend money to fix these problems with Javon Holland and Paulson Adebo, we're going to be able to unlock the pass rush. It's all going to come together. And if the offense with Russ is merely capable in year one and we can sit Jackson Dart and the defense becomes a truly elite unit, that's how we can be like a borderline playoff team in 2026.

29:17Robert Mays: I get that. I mean, I understand how you start talking yourself into that when you look at the pieces on paper for the Giants defense. I will just say I'm a little bit more skeptical about this collection of stories than I am about the first couple that we talked about. I'm definitely more skeptical. Like the other ones I either buy or like the doors open for me to get it. The Giants one, I just it's so hard for me to see any of the angles. And it's not even just for a large part of it for me is that Russell Wilson, I think at this stage is probably at best like quarterback 24, 25. And that's not going to solve a whole lot of issues for that.

29:52I didn't love Jackson Dart as a prospect, really. And I think that was also going to be another thing that they're going to have to get there on. But the other thing is that with these two quarterbacks specifically, you really need a good offensive line in front of them. And we've talked about this before. There's a chance to me that unit is not very good. And if it's not, I don't think any of the things they're selling themselves on these quarterbacks are going to come to fruition.

30:14Robert Mays: Yeah, the way that we frame the offensive line conversation with the Giants, I think this is kind of my thoughts about it is you're kind of shooting for just below average. Like that's the best case scenario with the bets that you've made. And I think that's always dangerous. when you're shooting for like the 20th best offensive line in the league, you can only get worse from there. So there's a chance they hit it and that group is fine, right? You can survive with that group. You can run the offense with that group. But I think there are plenty of other timelines here where it's worse than that.

30:45Robert Mays: And you start putting yourself in a pretty dicey position. Exactly. It's that's where I get really sick. And it's like with Russell Wilson, it's more the, you know, eight years ago, you could have a bad offensive line he would just run around and it would be fine that's not true anymore and then with jackson dart he's actually kind of more like old russell wilson where he actually is a good enough athlete to run around a lot but he's also a guy where he's a little bit too willing to sit there and just take a hit in the pocket and i i think with some of the processing issues that he might have as a rookie there might be some gnarly interceptions that we see if that's the case well guess what buddy well he's not gonna play as a rookie didn't you hear what i was saying before that Russ is going to be good enough when Jackson Dart sits the entire first year.

31:25Robert Mays: That's the story. The one I would say is kind of similar to this where a team is having to tell themselves this is a quarterback problem. The other stuff that we have in place is good enough to keep rolling with is the Browns. Like the Browns are having to tell themselves that they had a Deshaun Watson problem. And as soon as we get away from Deshaun Watson in some way, shape or form, whether that's Dylan Gabriel this year or trading up for a quarterback in 2026 with that extra first round pick, we're going to be okay. The coach, the general manager, the guy, the roster talent overall, you don't pay Miles Garrett all of that money and keep him instead of trading him for picks.

32:03Robert Mays: If you don't think that you're a couple years from being competitive again. And I think part of that is the quarterback was the problem. We have enough other things we feel good about that this turnaround is going to happen quicker than people on the outside believe. So if you're buying it level for the Giants on that is like, I don't know, a two or a three, what might it be for the Browns? I think it's higher because we've seen the Browns defense be a truly elite unit. And I think a decent amount of those pieces are still in place, even if they've just gotten unlucky. Like obviously the JOK thing is tough.

32:37Robert Mays: The secondary isn't as complete as it was. I do think that the Browns lack of draft picks over the last couple of years does make me a little bit worried about how fast they can turn things around. There's isn't a lot of talent, like just like underlying talent on the roster because of those missing draft picks. But I think the stability we've seen from Krems Stefanski and the heights we've seen from the offense, having that extra first round pick next year, I can kind of buy it. I can kind of buy that the right other pieces are in place for the Browns. They made the playoffs like multiple times with this group.

33:08Robert Mays: so I do think it requires a little bit of delusion in order to get yourself there but I think I'm closer with the Browns than I am with the Giants okay I'm glad you said that because that's exactly where I'm at where again for me it's it's probably like a two out of ten for the Giants on me buying it but with the Browns it might be a four out of five because at least with the Browns we have seen Stefanski do this with other quarterbacks who weren't even that good like Jacoby Brissett is not the best quarterback in the league. And they had like a pretty functionally good offense with him. And I know the offensive line was better and they had Nick Chubb and all this other stuff.

33:44And the defense was playing well. But like we've at least seen some proof of concept from it with Stefanski, whereas with Dable in New York specifically, we really haven't. And I guess that's part of my issue.

33:54Robert Mays: I mean, we saw that one year, the first year they were around, they succeeded with that very weird, specific sort of offense. But I think that is more of an outlier than it is an indication of what we can expect from this group based on how the last couple of years have gone. What's your next one here? What is a story that a team has had to tell itself this offseason? This one might sound weird because I still expect the team to be good, but the Vikings are really telling themselves that defensive back talent just doesn't matter at all. And I know I love this one. This is good because they got away with it last year, right?

34:28where you're you're paying like 34 year old stefan gilmore or whatever it is and you're you're getting away with some of that stuff josh metellus is playing a bunch of snaps for you but they let gilmore walk and they only really kind of replaced him with a lot of players who are i think in the best case scenario as good as gilmore was last year and then in the safety room you let cam bynum walk who was arguably their best defensive back he was their best defensive back outside of Byron Murphy. And then Harrison Smith, God bless him, is still playing well, but he's 36. Like there's a chance that he just it's gone.

35:02Like it can just happen so fast for DB. So I just I love what they did up front. Obviously, I think Brian Flores is one of the best play callers in the league, but they are they're kind of doing what the Dolphins have done over the past three years, where with their offense, they were running this such a specific system and leaning into this like min max style of play where it's like speed, speed, speed, The offensive line doesn't matter. And then you hit last year and it's like, oh, shit, the offensive line does matter. And we can't do any of the stuff that we want to do. I just there's a part of me that worries that we're going to get there with the Vikings secondary this year where it's like we had this such specific play style and we've let the talent deteriorate in this one spot a little bit too far.

35:43And it's going to cause us a lot of issues.

35:45Robert Mays: I really like this one a lot. The corners specifically, I do have faith this can be OK. Like, I think Isaiah Rogers is actually OK. I know that he's gotten picked on in certain situations, but as a stopgap corner, I think you can get by with Isaiah Rogers. And then they have Makai Blackman coming back from that torn ACL, which is one of the only reasons they had to go with the veterans last year. The part that worries me is the safety part of it, where now you're really relying on Theo Jackson to kind of be that third safety and allow you to play the way that you want it to play. And I guess that's my biggest question.

36:16Robert Mays: I still feel like we're in an Ocean's 11 situation with this group overall. Like coming into the draft, I was like, I think they need one more. I think they need one more, whether it's a corner or a safety. I think they need one more and they just didn't do it. And sometimes with this stuff, it's like, all right, what would you have wanted them to do? Like, what is the path not taken that you think would have been better? And as I look at the Vikings, I actually think it's, it's kind of simple. Like the two options you could have, and I'll present them both to you. Would you rather have Javon Hargrave on this defense right now or cam Bynum?

36:47Robert Mays: Cam Bynum. I think so too, especially because it's not even necessarily just a one-to-one player thing. it's like there's proof of concept that cam bynum is really good in this defense whereas hargrave we just don't know i because they they double dipped at that defensive tackle spot and i think if i had to pick i'd still probably rather have one of those guys when you already have dallas turner coming in because i get the argument with we need to be better at creating a pass rush with four our individual players up there are not good enough we've had to manufacture it too much but I almost think they over indexed for that and didn't do enough to address maybe playing a little bit more traditionally on the backend.

37:26Robert Mays: So I, that's a good one because I do think it obviously can't buy them made more money guaranteed. His contract is a little bit longer. It's not a one-to-one, but Javon Hargrave has a$7 million cap at this year. Can't buy them as a$7 million cap at this year before the contracts start going up next year. So they probably could have fit him in if they didn't do one of the defensive tackles. and I might like that construction of the defense a little bit more than this one. Yeah, that's that's just where I arrived with it, where it just had this feeling with the Dolphins offense where it's like, oh, just keep getting more speed.

37:56Just get more small guys, get more speed. It'll be fine. And the Vikings kind of have done that with their front over the past couple of years. And it just scares me that we're getting to a spot where this this build is a little bit fragile.

38:07Robert Mays: My next one here, and this is one we've hit on in a bunch of different ways this offseason, even at the end of last season. I think it was a pretty prominent part of the conversation after they lost to the Chiefs. The Bills have had to tell themselves this offseason that their break is going to come eventually. This is a great one. This is so good. Eventually, if we stay the course, it's going to happen, right? The players we have are good. The quarterback is so good. We are solid. We've done the right things on offense. We've evolved in the ways that we've needed to. The defense is a different conversation.

38:40Robert Mays: We could talk about that. But if you look at the Bills offseason and just what they've done over the last couple of years, there have been these little pointed bits of aggression. We talked about the Joey Bosa contract on the mailbag that's going to run next week, actually, how that sort of move where you're prorating a bunch of money. It's essentially, you know, it's a 12 million dollar contract, but he's only hitting the cap for five. Like that is a level of aggression, but it's tempered aggression. And that's really what they've done over the last two offseasons. It's like, we're going to make little moves on the margins and we're going to hope that's enough to make the ending of this story a little bit different.

39:13Robert Mays: I believe that's right, but that still is a story that you're having to tell yourself. And I think that extends to the McDermott part of this, because I've been pretty vocal about the fact that I think Sean McDermott, what he's done is really hard to do. And I think we underrate how hard it is to be that level of head coach. But if the same thing happens again, and if the defense melts down in the playoffs again, and if the Chiefs who have relative struggles against other defenses now that they didn't have three or four years ago are burning down the bills again, where it feels harder against some of these other teams, we're going to get to a point in on January 20th of 2026 where we're having a pretty hard conversation.

39:54Robert Mays: So I do believe this story is worth telling yourself, but it's getting a little bit tenuous here as we keep going deeper and deeper into it. This is such a good one because all of the other ones we brought up are about things that teams did that they think they're going to change, like the Rams signing Puna Ford or the Giants signing new quarterbacks and making new stuff. The Jaguars scrapping their head coach and bringing in Liam Cohen, stuff that they did that they expect change. with with the Bills. It's kind of about stuff they didn't do. It's like you said that they are, for the most part, staying the course and just believing that if we continue to play at a nine out of ten level, eventually we're going to win the AFC championship and we're going to have our shot at the Super Bowl.

40:40But you kind of do have to be delusional about this. And we talked this about a little bit on I think it was maybe one of the mailbag shows a few weeks ago. Like you really do have to start being delusional that, yes, we are good enough. We are doing all of the right things. We just haven't been lucky enough, but that's hard to convince yourself of when you are a competitor to just say like, I'm good enough, but I just haven't been fortunate enough. That's like competitors don't think that way. So it's hard to like, I just, this is such a fantastic one. And I don't disagree with anything they did this off season,

41:11Robert Mays: by the way, I actually support most of the moves they made this off season. If you look at them all stacked up against each other, I think that Josh Palmer, even if he's not the most exciting guy in the world is the right sort of piece for that passing game and what they were missing. You go to the defensive side of the ball. I love the fact that they were just like, we're refreshing the entire defensive line rotation, whether it's with Bosa, Landon Jackson, the interior players that we drafted. I get all of that. And then we need to take one swing at corner because that's the biggest remaining need on the defense.

41:41Robert Mays: Safety is maybe a spot they could have addressed in some way where they didn't like the lack of physicality at safety. I do think is still something I would come back to. But for the most part, I think they plugged the holes that they needed to. So this is not a criticism. It's just one of those things where by the end of it, you're just going to be sitting there. It's like that. That's the meme of the guy pointing at himself in the mirror. It's like, we're good enough. We are good enough. This is not our problem. And the funniest part about this, the Ravens are doing the exact same thing. Oh, they are.

42:09They, they really, it takes it and it takes such an insane amount of discipline to not go do the crazy thing, not go trade for receive or or if I don't know how they would have made the money work, but like the bills really wanting to go out and trade for Jalen Ramsey and make him a safety like to do something crazy. It takes a insane amount of discipline to not go out and do those things. But again, I agree with all of the little moves that really both of these teams made. And I believe that they both are good enough to win a Super Bowl. It's just you have to stare down Patrick Mahomes in the mirror every single, every single season.

42:45Robert Mays: As we hang out in the teams chasing the chiefs in the AFC portion of things, the lie or the story that the Bengals are having to tell themselves is a real reliance on more young players. And Al Golden is going to fix the defense. I'm not having any more Bengals conversations this week. I was on Mina's pod doing the AFC North preview, and I'm all set on that. I've lived, I've played around in that sandbox enough this week but i think that one is at least worth acknowledging if we're that that's the one that the other afc team trying to compete with the bengals or the to the chiefs has had to tell themselves yeah that one's not as much worth having like they their defense is so far away that it's not as interesting as like the bills and the ravens for me let's get to your next one here what's your next story that a team is having to tell itself this offseason yeah the the next one i have and and this is one i i wanted to bring this one up because this is one that i think we've gone back and forth with for a lot of the offseason.

43:36The Raiders are really telling themselves the story that them being like the worst run game in the league last year was not at all an offensive line problem. And I think they might be right. But it's it's funny because I think on an individual level, like player by player, I'm probably like 10 percent less excited about all of those players than a lot of other people. But at the same time, there's a lot of stuff that you can really sell yourself on. the other piece is really helping them and one example I want to bring up just to really explain like how bad the situation was for for the Raiders there's a play to open the half in the Steelers game where they're running like an outside zone and they leave the the backside defender unblocked it's TJ Watt the quarterback at the time was Aiden O 'Connell Aiden O 'Connell is not a boot threat and so TJ Watt just doesn't respect it at all and just goes and kills the running back and that to me is like one of those little things that you know Geno Smith isn't the best athlete in the world but he's going to give you more than Aiden O 'Connell to where guys like TJ Watt, who are the unblocked defender, have to at least respect that.

44:39You add that on top of Chip Kelly probably being a better play caller than Luke Getzey, Pete Carroll in general being a better head coach than they got out of Antonio Pierce. Like you can start to tell yourself that this really wasn't. And obviously I haven't even mentioned Ashton Gentry being a million times better than the running backs that they had last year. You can tell yourself the story. But then I just watched the offensive line and I'm like, I don't know, man. doesn't really move me.

45:04Robert Mays: I've been on record that I actually have faith in the offensive line. And the other thing that I like about the offensive line is they've given themselves options, right? So going out and getting those two guys in the third round, like I just think there are a bunch of different ways the offensive line. Yeah, and listen, he's had trouble coming back from the injury, but I think that you've given yourself enough chances where hopefully you can land on a five that you feel good about. Here is the stat that I will throw out to you for why it might be less of an offensive line problem than other things.

45:32Robert Mays: Among players with 35 carries last year in the NFL, there was one player in the league who had a lower percentage of his rushes go over expectation than Zemir White. One player. That player is Jared Goff.

45:54I did not know who the player was going to be. That is truly phenomenal. That if you are running, if you're only pure for being that poor of a runner is Jared Goff, who runs like a baby giraffe, you're in a bad spot. You're in a real bad spot. Running back talent wise.

46:13Robert Mays: Jared Goff had 35 carries for 56 yards last year. He averaged 1.6 yards a carry. Yeah. There it is. 35 carries are 56 yards. And I'm assuming a lot of those are quarterback sneaks, whatever, but the expectation thing that's played into with the quarterback sneaks. so Jared Goff was the only one and so Zamir White was second to last among all players with at least 26 carries if you have with at least 30 carries if you have it at 25 carries there are three players below him one of them is Cooper Rush so it was Jared Goff and Cooper Rush so that's what we're talking about here with the production that Zamir White was getting and Rush over expectation is it's next gen stats trying to untangle what a running back is doing compared to the situation around him what are you supposed to get in a given play what do you get in a given play so that stat is designed to try to isolate running back performance so hopefully you're gonna have ashton genti come in and give you a little bit more than zamir white gave you last year when you spend that high of a pick on him i would really hope so um and that's that's the part of it i think that i can most get myself there on like i can look at the offensive line talent and say you know again i'm probably 10 percent less excited about it than than other people especially some of the younger players but part of the issue with why they were such a bad run rushing offense last year so them in houston had the worst rushing success rates in the league last year it was both just under 32 percent the reason why the raiders were far and away or not far and away but why the raiders were worse than total epa uh on rushing downs and the texans were only like 25th or something like that is because joe mixon at least had some explosives yeah he could hit some home runs every now and then he's not hitting that many home runs no he's he's got one gear and it's not very fast and like that that was the difference and genti i think is absolutely going to give them that where he is he is going to give them some 15 yard pops every now and then and that alone might change their fortune and might get them to you know the 18th best rushing offense in the league which isn't sexy but it's a lot better than being far and away the worst in the league so it's again I can this is one I'm hemming on with all the offseason and I might not even have a full decision until we really get to like our final preseason previews and stuff like that but it's one again I understand the story that they're telling themselves I'm not sure I can get there but I do understand it the more I look at it I'm excited to actually go watch a little bit more of that Raiders offensive line from last year a lot of my thoughts on it are a couple scattered games in the back half of the season like I haven't actually carved out time to go study it in depth.

48:46Robert Mays: It's more like, Oh, I like these guys more than I thought. Like I liked a couple of the flashes from DJ glaze and even like what Jordan Meredith gave them at times and Jackson powers, Johnson going into year two. Like that's part of how I've been able to talk myself into it. But I am excited for that discussion when we talk about the Raiders during that preview, which those are coming up, buddy. Those are going to be happening a lot faster than we even think they are. Let's take one more quick break and then come back with a few more of these.

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51:09Robert Mays: so my bills one was more existential than some of the other ones that were born about a specific move and the same goes for these next two I think both of these teams have had to tell themselves a similar story and I even had to tell them tell themselves but this is the story they've told themselves this offseason the Bucks and Washington believe their time is now in the NFC both of them that is the story that they have told themselves this offseason you look at how aggressive washington has been with some of the moves that they've made some of the draft picks that they've traded away i think they really believe they can be competitive right now and then you look at the bucks it's not just it's not really the moves that the bucks have made but them signing bowls and jason light to those extensions and just being like we feel really good about where we are in the broader NFC hierarchy.

51:55Robert Mays: We lost a coin flip game to this Washington team who blew out the lions in the divisional round and then lost to an Eagles team in the NFC championship that as the bucks, we've given a really hard time over the last few years. Like this Eagles team feels invincible to everybody else. We've done very, very well against them. So I'm sure they're sitting there being like, why not us? Because you look at the broader NFC? Why isn't it our time as a Bucks team that has been kind of building to this moment? And then Washington, it's like we were one game away from the Super Bowl in year one of a rebuild with a rookie quarterback.

52:33Robert Mays: Why isn't it our time to kind of take the mantle here in this conference and really wrestle it away from that Eagles team? How real any of that is? I don't know, but I do think that is the narrative that started to build in both of those places. the the box eagles point is such a good one where the eagles have been the cream of the crop of of the conference for like three four years now but todd bowles rocks up and and jalen hurts just does not have a good time and and like if you if any of those moves they made in the secondary hit i think that's only going to be more true like if there's a little bit less air in the coverage for jalen hurts to be you know throwing some one-on-one one balls to aj uh brown or something like that that could really go a long way and the other thing is too like how this team could not delude themselves but sell themselves that this is all going to be fine especially on offense okay it sucks that we lost liam cohen but we lost dave canales the year before and we just replaced him i will do it again it doesn't matter same guy on the staff he was calling some of our plays like we'll be all right we'll do it again and i understand why they believe some of that and then doubling down on the offense even with like emeka buka and being like well we threw 40 touchdowns last year if we add another receiver we can just keep doing it like all of this the bucks one is really fascinating because i i think heading into this offseason i didn't necessarily perceive them the way that I did Washington, where Washington absolutely is pedal to the metal.

53:54Like they really think they're going to be the team. But when you look at it more the way that the Bucks have handled themselves, even if it doesn't feel as aggressive, they actually are kind of in the same boat of like, oh, they really do think that this is the time to do it. Especially, you know, again, the Lions taking a step back. Eagles will probably have a little bit of a hangover. The Vikings, Lord knows with their quarterback situation, like it's just the Niners, who knows if the Niners are going to be able to return to form.

54:17Robert Mays: I do think that even if it doesn't play out this way, even if the Niners do return to form, even if the Lions don't take a step back, even if JJ McCarthy is able to come in and have the Vikings compete on a similar level, I think it's easy as some of these other teams to see a vacuum that's there to be filled. And with the Bucs, again, I don't think it's the moves that they've made that send you that signal. I do think the moves for those, the extensions for those guys after falling short a little bit in the playoffs over the last couple of years, that does to me kind of project a, you know, we think we're really on the right track here.

54:49Robert Mays: We really do think that we're one of the more solid, reliable teams in the league. And I don't think that's wrong. I think what they've been able to do in the couple of years post Brady has been incredibly impressive. And for the Bucks specifically, the offense is easy to sell yourself. I think what you just said about the play callers is perfect. Like we already did it once. Why can't we do it again? We have all the pieces personnel wise. And then on defense, it's not that hard to get yourself there. If one of these young corners hits, you know, Braswell going into year two, we drafted a pass rusher in the fourth round.

55:21Robert Mays: If a son Reddick has a little bit more left, if everything falls into place, you could look at a roster that is really, really good and really, really complete. And so for the buck specifically, I get trying to build yourself up into, we believe that our time is right now. and it's so fascinating too because obviously you have defensive head and they weren't a very good defense last year but when you have a defensive head coach you probably always believe that you can get there especially with a couple more pieces so it's always like a bounce of the ball either way like right we've seen ourselves do it before so they have that going for them and then everything they've done the last two years on offense like like they're literally batting like a thousand on draft pick signings they revived Baker Mayfield like it's it's truly insane like I over the past two years I don't even know like the worst choice that they've made or decision they've made as an offense like Bucky Irving the draft pick obviously hits like the worst is probably I don't know you drafted Jalen McMillan in the top 75 and he wasn't a superstar like that's it and he's still a useful player like I just almost everything they've done on the offense is like awesome he's a third round pick and if he's your wide receiver four like you can absolutely live with that that's that's a win like they literally i i don't even rashad white was better for them last year than he had been before like they're legitimately over the last two years batting like a thousand for everything they did on offense this is this is pretty crazy i i really do think that the two you can throw out there are rashad white you drafted him 91st overall you'd hope that guy can become your featured back within an offense.

56:58Robert Mays: He didn't quite get there, but that's in part because Bucky Irving just overshadowed him as a really good player. And then the other one you could throw out, Kyle Trask probably wasn't worth drafting in the second round. But at that point, you needed to take a swing for your quarterback of the future. So even that I can understand to a degree. Other than that, like Robert Hainsey in the third round wasn't your starting center, was good enough to get paid by somebody else. Tristan Wirfs in the first round they drafted no offensive players in 2019 which is actually kind of funny so for the most part they've been batting close to a thousand even something like the f***ing ben bredesen hire the signing where you sign him for nothing and then he has a career year with you everything they've touched on that side of the ball has turned to gold you're 100 right about that like i i truly maybe there's one or two other teams maybe like the eagles last year with what they did they did last year on their defense is the same as batting a thousand but the bucks have really done it for like two three years in a row now where they just keep building and building and eventually like law of averages you would think it has to come back around and like maybe a mecca buko just sucks or something but now he's going for 1200 yards this year yeah exactly exactly it's gonna happen all right what's your last one um those were all of my big ones and then the other ones i had were just some other small ones we've talked about and probably the The closest that I could have for one is like the Panthers really have to tell themselves that there is more to Bryce Young.

58:27You know, I think we talked about why he kind of became the player that he became after how bad his rookie season was and how bad it was early in his career. But I do think when you look at him physically, it's very obvious that he does have a ceiling, but they are really having to sell themselves that despite that there is more to him and that him playing with a little bit better receivers with Tedaro and McMillan and stuff that that is going to unlock something more. I get why they believe that based on Bryce. I'm really feeling like he was more the player at Alabama than obviously he was as a rookie or his first couple of starts.

58:59But you are having to sell yourself a story. And that is one where I'll be clear. There weren't a whole lot of other options for them this offseason. So it's like, I don't know what other story they were going to tell themselves. You know, it was that or be like be the Aaron Rodgers team trade for Kirk Cousins. That probably wasn't that exciting. So I get it, but they are having to talk themselves into this. I think, I think that Bryce Young, I'm, I believe that story may be more than you do

59:23Robert Mays: just in part by watching like three or four games in the back half of last season, the sheer number of times that his pass catchers let him down on balls that should have been complete. It was startling. It was awful. It was, it was so bad. I was so frustrated for him. And so bringing in a guy like McMillan and hopefully being able to rectify some of that, I'm at least excited to see how that goes. even if there's probably more hope in that story than is deserved based on some of his limitations. I'm interested in what the positive outcome there could potentially look like. Like I'm excited to watch this team with McMillan and with Bryce Young playing the way he did in the back half of last season.

1:00:00Robert Mays: So that's one that I can get behind a couple more that we've kind of touched down this offseason that we don't have to go at length, but I think they fit this. The Cardinals are telling themselves that in-house improvement is plenty on their offense. like if we fix the defense personnel wise like we're gonna get enough of a enough progress from paris johnson marvin harrison jr isaiah adams some of these young draft picks that we didn't need to invest in the offense this year i think that's possible i absolutely think that there is a path for them to succeed that way if the defense can get a lot better with better players but that's the story they've had to tell themselves and Seattle it's the scheme was the problem.

1:00:41Robert Mays: The coordinator was the problem. If we have something that ties it all together on offense for us, even if we didn't obviously drafted into your offense line in the first round, but even if we didn't go above and beyond to add multiple new starters on the offensive line, even if we even took a step back with the quality of our past catching group, even if we made a lateral move at quarterback, all that is fine because it was the structure of the offense last year. That was our biggest issue. And now we're going to be okay with things tied together in a more cohesive way. So those are the two others that I would throw out.

1:01:13That's going to be a kind of interesting case study with those two teams side by side, right? With the Cardinals and the Seahawks where the Cardinals did, like you said, basically nothing. And if anything, only like lost some players on the offensive line and are just hoping young players are going to step up. But they are really just betting that like, yeah, one more year of Petsing doing this and, you know, bringing a new offensive line coach and all that stuff. That's, that's going to fix us. That's we're going to be all right. Whereas the Seahawks are like, dude, scrap the whole thing. I just just tear it all down and bring in a new coordinator.

1:01:41So it'll be funny to see which one actually ends up better in the wash. Obviously, it helps that we've at least seen the Arizona quarterback play at an MVP level. And that certainly raises your your floor. But it'll be a fun little case study. Those two teams.

1:01:55Robert Mays: All right. That is all we've got for today. We will have one more show, I believe, this week. So be on the lookout for that. I will you guys will be listening to this while I'm on vacation so Derek will be carrying the next show with with a special guest to come in and then I'll be back starting next week and I'll be back you know really until forever I mean we'll be back and ready to go starting next week because I mean now there's not another vacation or the end on in sight man I mean our season really does start when it comes to the way the way that I've always thought about the show and how the year is structured when training camp begins does it like Like we are, we're in it and that's fine.

1:02:36Robert Mays: I love that part. And I love that part of the calendar. My training camp travel is set. I'm going to see 25 teams this year, which I think is a record. So I'm very excited about that. It's one of my favorite things to do every year is to put it all together and to kind of plan who I get to talk to. And it's something I do not take for granted. I feel very lucky to be able to do it. And it truly is one of my favorite stretches of the year. Camp's open on like July 20th. is the first day that the lions have camp. I will be there on July 20th when the lions open camp and I'm going from July 20th through August 8th with no off days.

1:03:14Robert Mays: So I will be at a camp from every day from July 20th to August 8th. There are some travel decisions I made that I am already regretting, but I think we'll be okay. I'm having a hard time even picturing what that Google calendar looks like with flights and meetings and then getting to get into practices. Like it's, that's gotta be a whole lot of different colors. The only one I'm a little bit worried about is that I'm taking a red eye from Seattle to Atlanta to get there for Falcons practice. And the Falcons have a 9am practice that day that I'm getting there. I've already apologized to multiple people within the Falcons organization about how I'm going to arrive to that day in those conversations.

1:03:54Yeah. Yeah. It's, you know, there had to be one team that wasn't going to get your best and, And sorry to the Falcons for that.

1:04:00Robert Mays: It was Washington last year. And if you've ever been. I turned out well for them. If you've ever been in the mid-Atlantic in late July and August, that is not a fun place to be in the summer. So I'm hoping that Atlanta is at least a little bit more forgiving as I get off of a red-eye flight and go straight to practice. We'll see how that goes. Maybe the team who gets your roughest day has the best surprising season. So maybe we just get a Michael Penix 40 touchdown season. Who knows? We'll talk the Falcons into that. For now, guys, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate all of you listening.

1:04:32Robert Mays: We'll talk to you very soon.

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From the publisher

Every year, a handful of teams have to convince themselves that a certain story they've been telling themselves all offseason will turn out to be true. Their success for the coming season hinges on it. One example for 2025...Ben Johnson is exactly what Caleb Williams needs. So what are the other stories that teams are telling themselves as we approach the beginning of training camp? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen get into them on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.


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