The Table: Cutting 10 Super Bowl contenders down to eight

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. We wanted to keep it a little bit spicy and cut the table down at some point during the year. And this is that moment. So we are cutting the table from 10 down to eight teams today. Reminder, if a team is off, they cannot be put back on. So the teams that we're cutting off today, they cannot be put back into the conversation. And so there's some tough stuff here. There are some hard decisions that had to be made and there are some dicey ones that had to be made. really enjoyed this discussion with me, Dave Hellman, and Derek Klassen. Let's get to it right now.

1:09I've been looking forward to this one. I think I was a little scared of it earlier in the week when we first started kicking this conversation down the road about how this might go today, because there are going to be some tough decisions that we have to land on over the course of this show. Dave, I know that you've just been relishing this. You actually were looking forward to this in a real way. I hate it so much. I hate it. I think like for right or for wrong, I just I just can't stop imagining like the hype videos that like every team or like content creators put out for the playoffs. What was that guy?

1:43He has a real name on Twitter now, but that guy who was doing the like the Seahawks videos. Cable Thanos? Cable Thanos. That's what it was. Cable Thanos. Something Thanos and I couldn't remember exactly what it was. I think his real name is like Josh. yeah but yeah he's yes so the that was always the fear a few years ago is that you said something shitty about the seahawks you would end up in one of the cable fanos videos still my fear because like there's somebody that does that for like every fan base and so all you have to do is just the internet is too fractured now we don't notice them anymore you gotta just get out over your skis a little bit too much one time and you might be getting dunked on by you know rams fans for the rest of your life i don't know it scares the shit out of me if i'm being honest i feel like i've been around the internet long enough.

2:23They're like, I'm going to be dumped on a million times. I don't care. Yeah, this is like generation. This is so true. This is like a perfect distillation of what it is like to be 38 years old versus 28 years old is that I came to this version of the internet as like a fully fledged adult with like sentience and consciousness. You didn't. Like the internet already existed in its current form by the time that you arrived at that point as a person. And that has set you up for these moments in a way that I am just not equipped to handle. Yeah, so I'm ready to stand on some takes. And if someone gets mad, then someone gets mad.

2:56Let's kick some teams out the door here. I admire Derek so much because I'm just like, ah, but the schedule's going to lighten up and this guy might get healthy. And here's why we could be wrong about this. And Derek's just like, screw that. These guys suck. These guys are good. Let's go. Before we dig into the cutting exercise, I think I want to explain how we got here for the people who might be watching on YouTube who are not familiar with what we've been doing with this throughout the entire season. So before the year started, we picked 10 teams that we put at the contenders table, the teams that we thought had a legitimate chance of winning the Super Bowl.

3:31As the season went on, at any point, one of us could nominate a team that was not among that list, and then we would talk about it amongst three of us, and we would have to come to a consensus decision about whether we were going to include a new team and kick one of the existing ones out. The current makeup of the table as it exists right now on November 19th at 2.10 p.m. Eagles, Colts, Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Packers, Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, Bucks. Those are our 10 current teams. The teams that have been taken off the table already are the Texans, the 49ers, the Commanders, and the Bengals. they had been replaced, not one for one, but the teams that weren't on there originally were the Colts, the Seahawks, the Rams because of Matthew Stafford.

4:18We weren't sure about that. So that's why we did that before the season. And then the Bucks were the other team. So those are the four that are now on there that weren't at the beginning. Our task today is that we are cutting that group from 10 to eight, because at a certain point, you need to do that for this exercise to remain interesting. And so we felt like this was the moment after week 11, just over the halfway point, rounding toward Thanksgiving, it's the time to make some tough decisions with who belongs to the table and who doesn't. The haves and have-nots are starting to identify themselves.

4:49Yes. And, you know, Dane and I just did a whole draft podcast about the top 10 of the draft order. That is starting to take shape. The playoff picture is starting to take shape. I mean, 14 teams are going to make it, and I don't know how many, first of all, not all of those teams are going to be Super Bowl caliber. I mean, how many? They certainly can't be, because we have eight that we need to spend time. And then how many are even after that do you feel that sold on? So it should be easier in theory, but I feel like I'm going to make this difficult. So here's how we're going to go about this.

5:21We're going to decide before we start debating between some of these teams, which teams we think are just no doubt about it, write it in pen, these guys belong at the table among the final eight. I think collectively we've come to a place where we have four teams that we feel good about. the Los Angeles Rams, to me, have an argument as the best team in the NFL. I don't think we have to really go back and forth on that very much. I think the Rams belong at the table. The team that they beat on Sunday, but they beat in a very close game, in which their quarterback threw four interceptions, I think the Seahawks, in my opinion, belong at the table based on the way that they have played this year.

5:56They have a top five offense. They have a top five defense, according to most metrics. That is a team right now that I think I don't have to think that much about as it relates to something like this. Do you agree? I do agree. And I just I appreciate that we're billing them that way because it took us a minute to put them on. And like we could have had that conversation weeks ago and we waited and maybe Seahawks fans would have preferred we did it quicker. At least we are now doing them the favor of just being like, this is a slam dunk. There's no doubt in my mind even coming off of a loss. They they're absolutely on that short list.

6:26Losing by two points to the best team in the league is like doesn't really your quarterback for four. Yeah, it doesn't really change my opinion of how good you are. They probably have the best defense in the league right now as it stands, and their offense has been really good for a good majority of the season. So I have no issue with that whatsoever. The two other teams that we're going to put on here, maybe there's more of a discussion, but I think it makes sense as to why we landed here. I think the Eagles belong among this group of four teams. We have seen them do it as recently as last year, where the offense was languishing a bit during the regular season.

6:56They kick it into another gear for the playoffs. It feels like their defense is starting to approach the type of unit they were last year when they were the best unit in the entire NFL And so the eagles to me I didn't have to go back and forth or hem and haw that much for philadelphia And then the last team that we had was the buffalo bills I think that one maybe offer a little bit more debate But a team quarterback by josh allen that is still by almost every metric There is like a top six or seven offense a pass defense That's still pretty good despite what their run defense has looked like So those are the four teams that we felt like, we don't have to debate this.

7:30We don't have to go back and forth on it. They are the ones that firmly belong at the table. Are we comfortable with that group of teams? I think so. I think they all deserve it. And like, even if there's some hemming and hawing, like if we opened up the full discussion to like really having to sort out all eight teams, they'd probably all end up in there even after some discussion. I will say, I think at least two of these teams lose on wildcard weekend. Like, I really don't trust anyone in the league outside of the Rams. Wow. I'm trying to think what that would look like. I mean, one of the Rams or Seahawks have to be the wildcard team.

8:02The Eagles are not a very strong current one seed. They're technically one seed over the Rams right now, I think, because they have to head the head. And then the Bills, somebody could run for 200 yards. The Bills defense gives me a lot of pause as far as even being a slam dunk to be at the table. But then, but no, but look at the other options. And I think it's the right call. I mean, they would still be in if we opened it all the way up. I just like. If it were me by myself making the who is the teams that I'm not even thinking about putting on the table, it's just Los Angeles probably. I think that's fair.

8:34Maybe Seattle. I think these are the three safest bets among the other teams remaining. I think in part the Bills deserve to be there just because they're still very good on offense despite it being a little bit frustrating over the last few weeks. When your quarterback can do what he did last week. They are good enough in all the other areas to warrant inclusion here. They do this every year. That's not to say that they'll finally get over the hump, But I say this all the time, like every year we have these panic attacks about their defense. And that is a worthy conversation for January. But in November, they're a contender.

9:05There are four other teams. So that leaves us with four spots. There is a handful of teams that are playoff teams right now as it currently stands, or at least in contention to be playoff teams, that I also don't think we have to spend a ton of time on because I don't think that they belong as part of this conversation. As much as saddens me to say, the Chicago Bears are included in that group. Can they change your mind? No. At all? The defense is too bad. Kyler Gordon's practice window opened today? The defense is not good enough. Come on. Right now, we don't need to do this. We do not need to.

9:39I want to push you to that place where you believe. We do not need to speed run the Bears' inclusion at the contender table. Things are going well. It's progressing at the pace I'd like it to progress at. That's all I need at this point for me to be satisfied with everything that's happening. I just want you to jump in. I'm jumping in as far as I'm going to jump in. You've heard me talk about the quarterback and the offense over the last two weeks. The Bears are in that. The team they're playing this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers, if the playoff started today, they would be a playoff team.

10:07I do not think they are a real contender for a myriad of reasons. The Jaguars also do not think they're a real contender despite what happened last week against the Chargers. Still have enough questions about that team on both sides of the ball. and then the team they beat the shit out of last week, the Los Angeles Chargers, I also do not think deserves any, even a discussion about whether they should be at the contender table. Are we okay with not diving into the cases for or against any of those four teams? I'm okay. I'm just curious for y 'all's take. All right, I know how you feel about the Bears.

10:40Out of those four, are the Jags the most likely to like change your mind over the next seven weeks? Chargers. It's the Chargers. Even with all the offensive line stuff. But that's the thing. There's a chance that Herbert can just like go nuclear in a way that like, I love Trevor, but it's probably not going to happen. If they stumble into a workable offensive line somehow between now, let's just say like, oh, we threw Jamari Sawyer at left tackle and it actually solved something in a way that we didn't think it would. That version of this team, I think, is the most dangerous. I think that's a far off remote possibility, but I think that's at least something plausible among this group of four teams.

11:17Interesting. Like there's a version of the Chargers if they solve that to a degree that is the scariest among these four. I also just trust their coaching staff the most, I think, of this group, which I think goes a long way. I think that's fair. I lean toward the Jags. My heart wants to. My brain, you know. The big problem with the Jags is just trusting them to not jag for three weeks in a row. Which, by the way, they played the Titans in week 18. Doesn't it feel like they could like get to a win and in situation and just up and Cam Ward throws for like 350 yards? Make the playoffs. That's not what this conversation is about.

11:51I'm not. Yeah, I'm not saying that. I just it feels like we're setting up for a very Jags end of the season. I'm with you. I'm OK with that. OK, so that leaves us with four spots and I think eight teams that are in contention for those four spots. So here is the, he's already just like getting itchy over there. He is dreading this discussion. I hate it. Okay. Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Packers, Lions, Bucks, Ravens, Chiefs. Those are the eight remaining teams that we're going to have to choose from for our final four spots. And we are going to dig into that conversation right after our first break.

12:37Okay, so Derek and I were discussing this in the office before you got here, Dave. And we were talking about which direction we wanted to do this. Would you rather try to pick the four teams first, or would you rather eliminate teams that you do not think are going to get there? I'd rather eliminate teams. I think that's the right way to go. And I think I can start this off by departing from my usual biases. This is great. This makes things very easy for us. This is what I was wondering about. Quick work of it. Go. I know where this is going. The Bucs don't need to do that. Yeah. And it sucks because I can point to a lot of reasons why they haven't been as good here recently.

13:12And I think there's optimism for them playing better. They have been on a brutal schedule stretch, by the way. They play a good team every week. They're playing the Rams again this week. We're going to talk about it on the preview show. After this Rams game, they play a bunch of beatable teams. And they could inflate their record. But having watched them all season, it was really fun what they were doing in the first five or six weeks. I think they would have looked more like that caliber team by now. If they were, we would have seen more flashes of it if they were capable of reaching a higher ceiling than what they've been.

13:46And honestly, they look like a different version of what we've seen the last couple of years, which is a good team, a team that could maybe even win a playoff game. But if we're talking about Super Bowl contenders, they just they don't have the look to me. It looks closer to the 2023 version of this Bucs team with a better defense than it does to the 2024 version. I think some of that is the offensive skill position injuries they've had. If you look at the season-long stats, some of it is dealing with the offensive line injuries they had for the first half of the season. But this offense is not at the level it was last year, even if I do think the defense is better equipped just because all of those additions in the secondary.

14:23Like I'm curious to see what that defense will look like over a multi-year span when they get Hassan Reddicks and Kalasha Kanzis of the world back. Because I do think that everything they've gotten from, I was going to say the back seven, everything they've gotten from the secondary and coverage this year, I think has been really encouraging. But I'm with you. I think among all of these teams, they're probably the easiest to cross off. That's kind of where I landed as well. Like the linebackers are just not playing good enough. And then I like other parts of the defense, but like outside of Vito Bay, you don't really have enough of a star player for me to really feel like you can just like hard swing games on that side of the ball.

14:58And then the offense, again, a lot of this is part of injury, a lot of missing your best receivers, but like the passing offense just isn't good enough. And I know that they beat the hell out of the Bills in the ground game last week. The Bills run defenses. Yeah, like that's a Bills problem. I'm sorry. Plenty of teams can do that to them. So, again, maybe with the right matchups, like, they're still a good enough team, maybe steal a wild card game the way that they did in 2023. They absolutely could do that. And to be clear, I don't feel any worse about, like, the infrastructure or overall, like, health of the organization for the way that this season has gone.

15:29Like, I think they're a really good team and org. It's just like, they probably don't have the juice to do it this year, and that's fine. That's kind of how I feel about it, too. And I think that, we'll talk about this on the previous show. I'll be curious to hear your guys' thoughts about what's going on with the offense as it currently stands. Like we haven't really had like a Josh Grisard conversation because it was going well enough at the beginning of the season and Baker was playing so well that I think that took up a lot of the oxygen, but we'll spend some time kind of sitting with the Bucs and on the preview show this week because they're playing with the Rams.

15:55Spoiler alert, that's going to be one of our games of the week. And so we will spend a decent amount of time kind of taking stock of where they are. But I think it's kind of easy to eliminate them as part of a discussion like this. Okay, so in my mind, there is kind of a clear next team to bring up when we're putting teams on the chopping block. I want to hear this because I honestly, I'm not saying every team here. I think there's probably two. I think there's two that are kind of lumped in the next group. I don't know where to start. Can we eliminate the one that is my bias? Yes, we absolutely can.

16:25That's an easy way of doing this. The New England Patriots are not a Super Bowl team. Okay, I thought you were talking about a different team and you were about to blow my mind. No, we'll get to that. No, we'll get to that. No, the New England Patriots are not a Super Bowl team. And I know that in almost every other year when you would go, oh, well, the team with the potential MVP quarterback might be a good Super Bowl team. But the thing is that his particular case for MVP is that he's dragging a team that is terrible. Their defense is no good. The offensive line. He hasn't got off this for one inch.

16:56They're not a good team. He hasn't moved off this one inch. The defense is one of the worst in the league. The offensive line, I know like numbers wise is kind of better, but they're still, I don't think a unit that I would trust. And the skill players are obviously better. Like Henderson's coming on. The receiving core has something to it in a way it didn't last year. And I do think the coaching staff is good, but like this, his MVP case is that he's clearly dragging a team that is not of this quality to a higher quality. And that might mean them going from mediocre team to him dragging them to, you know, 12 wins or whatever, but that doesn't make them a Super Bowl team in my mind.

17:28I just struggled to see a team with that offensive line and that defense winning three or four playoff games in a row. I think some of the nuance that's important here when discussing his MVP case versus the upside case for the Patriots. When we were talking about Drake May's MVP case, I've said this multiple times. Nate brought this up when he was talking about it. The fact that the defenses that they played, that slate is the middle of the road. They played a decent amount of defenses and the offense continues to be very good. That's a Drake May conversation. You can do the, they ain't beating nobody when we're talking about like their upside conversation.

18:01They have one win over the Bills. Other than that, like there just aren't a lot of impressive wins on this team's schedule. They beat the Bucks in a kind of an ugly game. Like I just think that they're not there yet. And that's okay. They're way ahead of schedule. The fact that the Patriots are not a Super Bowl contender in year one under Mike Vrabel and year two with Drake May when last year they were in the midst of like a total full-scale rebuild, it's okay that this is where we land on this team right now. I want to push back a little bit just because they might get the one seed in the AFC.

18:36And just by virtue of doing that, you win one game and you're in the conference title game. That seems doable to me. You need to win two more games to win the Super Bowl. But if you're playing in the final four, doesn't that make you a contender? The Commanders were in the final four last year and I did like that. They were not winning the Super Bowl. The commanders went on a way more zany run, though. You know, like they had to go like they started. They went on the road as a wild card. They beat the number one seed. All the Pats would have to do in this world is win a home game. And they're in the AFC championship.

19:08But when it comes to like the quality of the team, do you think that this Pats team is like a better football team than last year's Washington commanders by a considerable margin? I don't. I don't think so either. I don't either. I still it. It feels the home field. advantage does like do something. It feels strange to me to eliminate a team that might have the MVP and might be the one seed in the AFC. Well, we're going to talk about a team that also might be the one seed in the AFC here in a second. We also might eliminate them. So I, this is a strange year when it comes to the seeding in the AFC.

19:39I just do not think we have to cut off four teams. We do. And I think that the Patriots, when you look at the top to bottom quality of the roster still at this moment, is kind of an easy team to eliminate despite the fact that they might have the one seat i'll do it under protest but if i'm outnumbered in your final group of eight were they in there oh i didn't even make a final group of eight i just wanted to talk with y 'all okay all right okay no so he seems just to cause problems he has no views of his own i wanted to sort this out in real time and see how i really felt about making me and robert work for it he's just gonna make the case of every single team because he didn't have the balls to cut any teams off before we got to the table here you know what like your logic is sound and i'll say this i'll say this i still contend that if you've got an mvp timeless if you've got an mvp quarterback and a home field advantage that feels like it should matter but and this is why i hate this so much like i'm looking at several teams with much worse records that i like a lot more and like spoiler alert i'm down to cut the paths before i cut the chiefs or several other teams and And I think that's okay to do.

20:47I think, all right, this is going to come up a bunch. I love the fact that his approach to this discussion is he's going to advocate for every single team and under protest, allow them to be cut. So he pisses off no one by the time we get to the end of this. It's actually a really savvy strategy. I didn't even realize that's what they're doing. The other fan base is going to be able to pull this. Well, you know, David fought for us. He's going to fight for every team knowing that we have to cut most of them. I'll be mean to a couple of teams just to balance it out. I think this is going to be a recurring theme when we talk about a lot of these teams.

21:16and this is devoid of logic or reason or stats, when you've seen teams do it before, it is much, much easier to give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to something like this. And the Patriots are one of those teams. We have not seen them do it before and it becomes harder to give teams like that the benefit of the doubt. It just is. I agree with you. It's very funny to think the Chiefs could lose to the Colts this weekend and be up shit creek. They've already lost a few. The timing of this is tough. If we had done it next week, it probably would have been easier. I'm still not scared.

21:45I'm good. Like the Chiefs could be behind the eight ball with tiebreakers to even make the playoffs. But having said that, it wouldn't change my mind that I'd rather bet on the Chiefs to do this. You know, I'd rather bet on the Chiefs to go on some insane run than think that the Patriots are going to go from top five in the draft order to winning the Super Bowl. That's how I feel as well. OK. OK. So I think this is where it starts getting more difficult. who is the next team you would put up for debate at potential elimination? I think this says a lot about you as a person. The Indianapolis Colts.

22:20I think that is my answer as well. At the end of the day, we've said so many nice things about the Indianapolis Colts. It's okay to be hesitant to back a Daniel Jones quarterbacked team through the playoffs. Everything I just said about sometimes you have to have seen a team do it before, whether before you're willing to say they can do it this time. The Colts are the exact team I had in mind when I was saying that out loud. And I think with the Colts, too, it's just like, look, the run that they were on for the first seven weeks of the season, and they're still a good offense, by the way, even though it's like they're the best of the week.

22:49It's toned down the last like month or so. But even if you just put it over the last month, they're still like ninth in like success rate and like 12th in DVO. Like there's still a pretty good offense, even with some of the dips. but like if we're doing this like I just Daniel Jones I just it's more likely we get the guy that we've seen the last six years than we than it is that we the last guy that we've seen the last two weeks yeah exactly like that guy is not good enough and two I think that is the easy part of it is like the Daniel Jones of it all I also just I don't think this defense is good enough to like really make a run if Daniel Jones is going to fall back a little bit to earth I think one of your sides of the ball truly has to be like an elite unit and the way that Jones has played over the last month on top of what that defense is I just don't think they have a top five or six unit on either side of the ball and that kind of scares me they're statistically bottom half of the league defensively barely but like yeah you're not talking about a defense that's and it's a small sample size since they got sauce Gardner it's only one game so I'll keep an open mind but I agree with you about the defense Daniel Jones looks more like he looked like the t1000 for the first like eight weeks of the season, just like a cyborg sent back from the future to make the right decision.

24:00And he just looks more like a person the last couple of weeks. And like they still, they won one of those games and he made a nice play at the end of the Falcons game to help him win it. But I'm, I'm comfortable saying that I don't all the way believe that he's going to win several big playoff games in a row. I also, this probably won't happen. I think they are more in danger of losing the division than it like might feel because like obviously they're eight and two record but they've had one of the top five easiest schedules in the league up to this point. Who's gonna catch them the Jags? The Jags oh man I told you I'm like there's a little bit I have a little bit of Jags so I'm fine not putting them in there because they're not a Super Bowl team but I think that the Jags schedule is significantly easier they still have to play this team twice I believe and the Jag or the Colts schedule from here on out according to DVOA, is the hardest in the league.

24:52Colts' schedule's tough. It's brutal, man. We've talked about it before. You got your four harder division games all remain. Obviously, this big one with the Chiefs and a couple other really tough ones, too. I expect the Colts to not fall apart, but look more like a normal NFL team over the next six. Look more like a nine-win team, which if we got going into the season what felt like the optimistic version of Daniel Jones, So it's probably like an 8 or 9 win team. And like they're probably more realistically like falling back towards that caliber. I think the offense is better than that. I do think even if they fall back a little bit, I think the offense is better than that.

25:31We've talked about this after the Falcons game. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Daniel Jones was number one in the NFL, I believe in success rate and EPA per drop back when pressured. I think he was the only quarterback in the league to have positive total EPA when pressured over the first half of the year. over the last two weeks, I believe he has something like negative 30 total EPA when pressured. So I think it's, I don't think it's either one of those extremes. I think it's something that's probably closer to the middle. I still believe enough in the offensive line, the infrastructure, the play calling, the talent across the rest of the unit that they can be like a borderline top five-ish, top seven-ish offense over the rest of the way.

26:07I don't think I feel as good about any of the, either unit for the Jaguars as I do about the Colts offense. No, the Jaguars thing to be clear is not a like they are even a better team than the Colts necessarily. It's just like their path to getting to the division between these two teams is like closer than you would think just looking at their records. You just said the Colts are a 9-7 team. The Colts are 8-2 right now. I know. No, no, no. I'm saying the quality of a 9-8 team. Yes. Going into the season, if we got what felt like the optimistic version of Daniel Jones before what we've seen this year, you probably would have said that was like an 8-9 win team.

26:40I think that better. I'm not sure. I still think they're like a 10 or 11 win playoff team with the overall quality of the offense. I just don't think that is good enough to be a Super Bowl team given the state of the defense. That's fair. I probably am being a little harsh. I mean, 11 and 6 when you start 8 and 2, that's still a disappointing way to be playing at the end of the season even if the schedule is really tough. But for all of the reasons outlined here, I'm fine leaving them off. Okay. So that's our third team off the Indianapolis Colts. Before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break.

27:20The next team that I feel like is in line for this sort of discussion, fair or unfair, I alluded to it earlier. Right now, you said the Patriots might be the one seed in the AFC. The current one seed in the AFC is the Denver Broncos. And they are the next team I would bring up as part of this discussion. I'm sure that will piss a lot of people off. But there are reasons behind my rationale here. Broncos fans are probably used to it by now. Exactly. What else can we possibly say? They don't seem like they're fans of the show at this stage. And you know what? That's okay with me. Where are you at with this?

27:52Do you feel like the Broncos should be at the table as we round toward the back half of the season here? Or the home stretch of the season? No. Wow, that was pretty definitive. That was quicker and cleaner than I expected it to be. I respect the hell out of their defense. and their defense is going to give them a chance to win playoff games, like to be a pain in the ass. But you're still talking about, and it's funny, because the Broncos have the type of defense that could give you a shot to win a Super Bowl. I feel better about Drake May, and Drake May dragging a bad team through the playoffs than the Broncos trying to slug it out with some of these better teams over the course of maybe even three weeks, like winning three games with what we've seen out of the quarterback.

28:45And I know Kansas City was their crowning achievement. He's had some good games over the course of the season. He played well. I rewatched it this morning. He played well. Extremely well. And he's had other good games this season. But over the course of three weeks, when people like Steve Spagnuolo or Sean McDermott are going to be game planning for what bothers your quarterback. I don't know. Or you have to play the Rams defense or the Seahawks defense. Of course, if they get all the way to the Super Bowl, absolutely. But that's the conversation that we're having. No, I was just thinking about in the AFC playoffs.

29:17But yeah, of course, if you get to the Super Bowl, that's a whole other thing too. So to think that from what we've seen from Bo Nix, to think that he's going to successfully navigate that minefield and maybe the Broncos really could hold everybody they play in the postseason to 15 points and you just will Lutz your way to a championship. It's possible, but... You will Lutz your way to a championship. That's gross, but I mean... It's possible. If Broncos fans weren't pissed off already, then that'll get in there. This particular organization has done that before already. I'm trying to... I don't remember this off the top of my head, but like how many...

29:55What were the Broncos 2015 playoff games like? What were the scores of those games? I mean, I know they held Carolina at 10 points. I'm glad you're bringing this team up because I had something in my back pocket that I wanted to bring out that I think would just bring like a very, a real clarity to this discussion about the Broncos' playoff chances as currently constructed. I had had this conversation on another show years ago. And so the numbers were sitting here and I've just pulled them up and the Broncos fall into this category. Okay, since 2014, I don't know why I picked 2014. I think it was just a decade.

30:27So since 2014, there have been 44 participants on championship weekend, right? 11 years, four teams. Of those 44 teams that have been in the AFC or NFC championship game, three of them had offenses that were outside of the top 10 in EPA per play. Three. Two of them had, one of them had an offense that was outside of the top 12 in EPA per play. Of the three that were outside of the top 10, two of those teams missed the Super Bowl. Only one team with an EPA per play outside of the top 10 since 2014 has won the Super Bowl and even participated in the Super Bowl. It is the 2015 Broncos. It was a special defense.

31:11That's it. They allowed 15 points per game during that playoff run. I'll go through it. Last year, 2024, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Commanders, all top 10 in EPA per play. 23, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Niners, all top 10 in EPA per drop back, all top 11 in EPA per play. 2022, Chiefs, Eagles, Niners, Bengals, all top six in EPA per play, top seven in EPA per drop back. 2021, Chiefs, Bengals, Rams, Niners, all top eight in EPA per drop back. The Chiefs, Rams, and Niners were all top eight in EPA per play. 2020, Bucks, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, all top five in EPA per play and top five in EPA per drop back.

31:45It's like, that's usually how this goes. And even the years where like the Packers in 2019, they were 12th in EPA per drop back, but they were top 10 in EPA per play. It's either a drop back or per play. You need to be in there in order to get to and win the Super Bowl. This isn't just like a theoretical thing where we're trying to shit on the Broncos. And it's not just an anecdotal thing about how hard it is to win a championship constructed this way. The history is there. It's almost impossible to do it unless you have an all-time defense. This defense is very good. They're like the fourth-ranked defense in the league, according to most metrics.

32:20That is not going to get you there unless your offense has a crazy spike. There's actually a team we're going to talk about that also is like outside of the top 10 and a lot of the offensive metrics. The Eagles are that. But we at least saw the Eagles do it last year where they can click into... And they are just way more talented. Exactly. It's not hard to imagine the Eagles getting to a place reminiscent of what they looked like in the playoffs last year on offense. It's harder to get there with the Broncos because they're not as talented and we've never seen them do it before. The Eagles just can't get the parking brake off of their sports car.

32:52Whereas the Broncos are just a Toyota Tacoma. Yeah, whatever. So, no, like I said, I can see this team being a pain in the ass in the playoffs and maybe beating a team that we enjoy watching a lot more. But all the way to a Super Bowl, I can't see it. This one, I think, mentally was easier for me to cross off. Because, like, if we're listing, if we're including the teams that we, like, weren't going to talk about at the top, basically 12 teams we're having to make a case for. off the rip if I think your team has the worst quarterback of that bunch I'm just not picking you to be in this exercise it's fair but it did make it hard because I do think their defense is probably the best of this bunch and so it was like I understand the history of defenses but at least in my mind I was like well you have one elite unit whereas like again when I looked at like the Patriots or the Colts in my mind they don't have an elite side of the ball whereas at least with the Broncos I was like maybe you mess around and win four games based off of that even if I don't actually believe that okay so the Broncos were the next team to bring up that we were potentially going to eliminate, I think, for a lot of the reasons that you just said.

33:52The quarterback part of it, the quality of the offense part of it. The other four teams involved in this discussion, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, the three of those teams are definitively top 10 offenses. The Ravens are outside of the top 10 for obvious reasons. Lamar missed several games. He's still not even really healthy right now. So we don't have to do it this way. Just because the Broncos were next up logically doesn't mean that we have to eliminate them before talking about any of the other teams. Of the four other teams, the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions, Which of those do you think is at least up for discussion to be replaced by the Broncos in an exercise like this?

34:25I will say the only one I didn't even consider whether or not I was going to have them on was the Lions. The Lions to me was just like automatic, like you're good. Like I know the offense has had some lower lows than they have in previous years, but like the highs are still pretty dang good. They're still mostly consistent and the defense is awesome. Like the defense is really, really good. So like they, I didn't really think about the Lions very much. I think that's, I was probably in the same boat. That's really funny because as I was going through it, the Lions are probably, the Lions and the Ravens are the two that I'm most willing to entertain a conversation on.

34:56Really? More than the Packers? More than the Packers? Absolutely. Wow. Absolutely. That's surprising. Why? I didn't think I'd be out Packered on this show. Because, like, I, because the, because the quarterback can kind of do shit sometimes? Because the quarterback can kind of do shit at times and you have, you have defenders that are capable of, like, swinging things in big moments, you know? Like you have an A1 pass rusher like Micah Parsons who can like deliver for you in moments like that. The Broncos have two of those guys and the reigning defensive player of the year. I like the Packers quarterback more than I like the Broncos quarterback.

35:30And I can sell myself on the idea. I will say the Packers offensive line gives me a lot of pause, but like the Packers are going to get Jaden Reed back at some point this season. Jordan Love looked phenomenal. Like he was pretty awesome against the Giants. He looked like how he's supposed to look. If he could just play in that mindset for the rest of the season we're cooking. I'm basically just like refusing. If you want to call it refusing to let go of my priors, that's totally fine. But like, I'm not sold that the Packers still have a ceiling they can reach, in my opinion, even if it's annoying to keep saying that.

36:08People are going to, I assume, lose their minds. You're talking about Jordan Love and the faith you have in Jordan Love. And I like this quarterback. Where do you think Jordan Love ranks in EPA per drop back? First or second, he's like, he's been awesome this year. He's been there all year. Yeah, like he's really good. People are sick of hearing about how good his metrics are relative to what watching the Packers feels like. And they saw him play one game on national TV against the Eagles, which is like, all right, man. It was a bad, that Eagles game was bad. And the game before against the Packers, or the Panthers, was not his best.

36:38But like, over the course of the season, he's actually been really efficient. despite like you just said an offensive line that's not playing well. Jaden Reed has missed a lot of the time. They don't know what they're doing with Matthew Golden. Like it's just like the fact that the offense has been as good as it is is to me a lot of him. I don't disagree with most of the things that you guys are saying. I feel the same way about Jordan Love. I feel much better about him than I do about Bo Nix. I don't think that's a crazy thing to say. At the same time, when I'm looking at these teams, the fact that you like immediately, like the Packers were the other team you didn't really consider.

37:13Even if I can admit, and I do think that the Packers are probably a better team top to bottom right now than either the Chiefs or the Ravens, when it comes to something like this, I would be much, much, much more afraid of leaving the Chiefs or Ravens off than I would be about leaving the Packers off. Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. Right? Which, and I don't want to, it hurts my soul to like cape for the Ravens for a month and a half and ditch them now. But that's kind of where I'm at with the Ravens. You can look at the Ravens right now and you can look at how they're even playing right now with everybody back.

37:50And I think be like, ah, this team ain't got it. But I was literally thinking about this when I was walking to lunch today. I was trying to figure out which team I was going to land on. I was like, am I really going to sit here and say a Ravens team that's probably going to make the playoffs with most of its roster healthy is not capable of winning the Super Bowl? No f***ing chance. Like, there's no way I'm going to put my name on that. You know what's annoying about that, though? Like, other than, I guess, I guess the season opener. And I know, I know Lamar missed time with the hamstring. But, like, it's week 12.

38:22Have we seen the Ravens play like a team that could win the Super Bowl yet? No, but I saw the offense for the last two years before this. That's enough. They're a team where I'm... Where is it? I think that Lamar's been hurt for a good chunk of time. and I still don't know how healthy he is now. And maybe, listen. And he's got six weeks to figure it out, though. And maybe they don't. Maybe we get to the end of the year and this is just the Ravens where the defense is pretty good and the offense never finds itself. The running game has not been nearly as good as it's been over the last couple years.

38:53Like, this is not rooted in a lot of the tangible evidence that we have right now, but I don't think it necessarily has to be. I think sometimes, like, multiple-time MVP quarterbacks, like, that's why it was so easy to flip the Josh Allen switch with this It's just like, no, f*** it. Like, he's in there. That's kind of how I feel. Josh Allen has done Josh Allen shit, like, several times this year. That's fair. He's coming off a six-touchdown game. Yeah. The Bills have, across the season, the Bills have, they have looked like a juggernaut at times. With the Ravens, we're just going solely on vibes, which is part of the reason why I didn't, why I came in here with this approach, where I was like, we still got seven weeks of regular season to play.

39:33It's as wide open as we can remember in recent memory. Half of the best records in the league are rosters we don't really trust. It's all going to come down to vibes anyway. So, like I said, I mean, I'm tempted to take the Ravens off because we just haven't seen it from them. But the fear is definitely that they could look scary by January 5th. It's a conundrum. The Ravens right now, per our playoff simulator on The Athletic, which is so hilarious because they are still one game back in the division. Austin Mock, if you guys have not checked out the player simulator, playoff simulator, I encourage you to do so.

40:10It's a fun thing to play around with. They have an 81 % chance to win the division right now. 81%. I mean, they play them twice, and that team now has, the Steelers now have either Aaron Rodgers with one hand or Mason Rudolph, which I think the way the Ravens defense is playing right now is probably going to handle that pretty okay. And that's also part of this is that the fact that the Ravens, if you look at these numbers, have an 80 % chance to host a home playoff game, that makes it easier for me to just kind of hand wave and be like nah they're in if this is the tiebreaker like that's enough for me I also like a very I don't even think this is a good way to do this but if I just grabbed of all the eight teams that we're talking about here if you just grab the three best players from each team and like put them against each other the Ravens have the best trio with Lamar Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith and like those are the star players that can win you playoff games Henry is still on that team.

41:01Henry is still playing really well. I feel really good about the overall direction of the defense, by the way. Like really good about the overall direction of the defense. I think if you look at the past few weeks, since they made the Kyle Hamilton move, and I think it was Jeff Zerebeck on Scoop City was talking about this, and I thought it was a really good point. He was just saying that having Kyle Hamilton next to Roquan Smith also slows Roquan Smith down. Because for the first time in a very long time, he's playing next to an experienced player in that spot versus all of the rookies and kind of youngish guys, the Trent Simpsons of the world and Teddy Buchanan, who's been good in stretches this year.

41:36But it's just a different sort of settling down, calming force for him. And you've seen his best ball. The Draymond Jones thing, I think, it's not the Jalen Phillips trade, but I think you've seen some of the things that he's bringing to the table. And so I think I feel pretty good, like pretty damn good about the seven game future of the Ravens defense. And if that's the case, am I really that worried about the offense that it's going to be, A disqualifying factor here. The offense quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson. I'm going to pivot in a direction that has nothing to do with what we're talking about, because it'll it might help us come to a conclusion.

42:10Smoke bomb. We already did. What? We came to a conclusion. We have all four of the teams. We do? Yes. Wait, why? Hang on. Why are we so why are we why are we not discussing the merits of the Lions? Why the Lions shouldn't be in here? Why are the Lions not worth talking about? Is their case deserving? They have a top five offense and I have enough institutional faith. And they have a top six defense. That's what I meant to say. Sorry, the defense is playing exceptionally well. The offense's highs are still good enough. I really trust the coaching staff generally. I think Dan Campbell, there's a lot of institutional faith that I have there, that I'm good there.

42:49Over the course of the year, the Lions have played, what, four or five teams that are part of this conversation. They looked incredible against the Ravens all the way back in week three when the Ravens defense had no idea what it was doing against Green Bay, Kansas City, Philadelphia. What did that look like? What did that look like when they went up against like what we view as like the class of the NFL? So here's the Philadelphia game was gross. Unless they play Philly again in the playoffs, that's not good. Which they might. But like, other than them running up against Philly, the conditions for that game where Jared Goff had to play outside when it was like 45 degrees.

43:28Most of the other teams are not going to play. Oh, so it's not getting a playoff game? My good friend from the Lions probably aren't going to have home. If they win their division. I know you haven't spent a ton of time here during this time of the year, but I just want to let you know, it doesn't get warmer from here on out. No, but they can win their division and mostly be fine unless they run into Philly in the conference championship, which at that point, whatever. Winning your division without being the one seed only guarantees you one game. So the Rams to the Rams. You could go to L.A. I just I feel like there's a good chance you're going to have to play.

44:01It's pretty warm over there. It is. There's a pretty good chance. Also inside. Exactly. I worry that the Lions offensive line is not the overwhelming force that it used to be. I think that's right. Well. But is that enough to ding them that far as part of a conversation like this? It could be. Alright, so do you want to open the idea of the Lions being off and the Broncos being in? Is that our only... Or you could bring the Colts back if you really want to. So, right now, we have four teams that are in. Okay? Okay. Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Bills. We agreed that... I guess I was thrown off because we didn't officially, at least, I don't think, We didn't officially make a decision on Green Bay or Kansas City.

44:47We don't need to. All we needed to do is eliminate four other teams. And the four teams we eliminated were the Bucs, Patriots, Colts, and Broncos. Okay. That's why when you just eliminated the Broncos, I was like, oh man, that was really fast. Oh, okay. So we are left with the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions as the other four teams. Are you comfortable with that? Yes. Yeah, I am. You were comfortable leaving the Broncos off in favor of the Packers and the Lions, the Chiefs, and the Ravens. Yeah, I think too. I think a lot of people are going to be mad and be like, well, these are the teams you thought were good going into the season.

45:20And it's like, yeah, like I, none of them have like disqualified themselves from the way I felt about them going in. Okay. There is a team we have not discussed at all. And considering whether we should include them or not. What about the team that might not make the playoffs? The Kansas City Chiefs. Yes. Find somebody else. Find somebody else to write the Chiefs off on November 19th. It's not going to be me. This was my thing. Like, Liz, I understand that of the teams that we're talking about, they have the lowest possible chance of getting into the playoffs. Right now. Let's go back to the playoffs.

45:52Yes. Run it back. 56 % chance. A coin flips chance for a team that we're saying might win the Super Bowl is pretty tough. However, I came into this exercise being pretty comfortable, believing that I basically had de facto seven seats to toy with and then just giving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs the other one. I was OK with that. the Chiefs are I'm perfectly comfortable not having a firm rationale on the Chiefs but by the way like I mean I'm in the middle of taking notes for the preview show so I have this right in front of me like their fifth in total DVOA their third in offensive DVOA they're better than they were last year literally the only reason the Chiefs are quote unquote struggling is because they haven't figured out how to win a one score game that's all because it's not a real skill that is a valid point.

46:42Unless they lost all of that skill from last year when they were winning all of them. Yeah, for the duration of the Mahomes era, they win 73 % of their one-score games, and they're 0 for 5 right now. It's all coming back. I mean, no. Look, I get it. They could fall below 500 on Sunday. It's theoretically possible, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt until it's mathematically not doable. And if that becomes a reality, then we can revisit it then. But if they lose on Sunday, playing with the simulator here, it goes to 40 % that they make the playoffs. 4-0. If they win, it goes to 66%, 67%.

47:30I would still rather have a Chiefs team that only has a 40 % chance to even get in than like the Patriots winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs lost to the Broncos three days ago. Yep, that's fine. You're okay with that? Yep. Yeah. This ain't about week 11. This is about doing it in January. When the Broncos win the Super Bowl, what are we going to do? Move on? We'll all have to do the wins pool bet. We'll all have to dress up like the barrel man from the famous Denver Superfan. Yeah, if the Broncos go to the Super Bowl, you all have to pay that off. No, no, no. It's not go to the Super Bowl. That's not what the table was about.

48:08It's about winning the Super Bowl. You have to pay it off like next year. Yeah, like the combine. Or the combine, yeah. All right. I'm not willing to commit to this yet, but if the Broncos do win the Super Bowl, maybe we should have to do something stupid at the draft. We're all going to be in person. I'm not bending to the will of Broncos fans. What? I'll do it. What are we talking about? I don't have that much self-esteem anyway. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, I'll get goofy with it. I don't care. It's also at this point, like, okay, I'll commit to this right now. Okay. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, I will buzz my head for the draft show.

48:46Amazing. I will shave my head for the draft show if the Broncos win the Super Bowl. There's too much lettuce going on. You guys, yeah. You guys are, it's fine. I will, I will. I'm not getting sanctioned. I'm not going to pick it just because it's too much work. But I will, with a, like, no guard razor, I will buzz my head the week of the draft if the Broncos win the Super Bowl. I'm sure I could come up with something with high stakes that doesn't involve my hair that I would do for Broncos fans. My wife always gives me shit about she's like, what if it doesn't grow back? I was like, I don't think that's how it works.

49:15I'm pretty sure. I agree. I agree with her. It's not worth the risk. Because we're the same age. So that's the thing is as you're getting into your late 30s, the idea if you cut it all off that it wouldn't come back. It is a little bit scary, but this is all I got going for me. It's like half of what I got going for me. So no, I'll come up with something else, though. Broncos fans. You can, if this happens. At this point, there's nothing we can do to endear ourselves to them anyway. No. So why worry about it? I think that's kind of the point that we've reached. Fair enough. I still don't like the idea of bending to them, but that's fine.

49:47Okay. So our eight teams at the table on November 19th, pre-week 12th, are Philadelphia Eagles, the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks, the Buffalo Bills, the Green Bay Packers. People are going to love that one. Kansas City Chiefs the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions so the top three seeds in the AFC if the playoffs started today are not at the revised table three teams currently not in a playoff position as we sit here today as well and the yeah the Chiefs Ravens and Lions the three and four seeds in the NFC if the playoffs started today off the table I feel fine about that though listen people are going to be real you guys are going to have a lot of regrets when the seven and three Chicago Bears going around.

50:33Don't say that because I tried to sell you on it. I tried to bring the Bears to the table and you didn't want anything to do with it. And the Jaguars win 12 games and get it. There's nothing. I benefit from that in no way. In absolutely no way. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back on Friday with our week 12 preview. Not a great slate, but a couple of really good games, a couple of fun Sicko Street nominees that we're going to dig through. So looking forward to that one. Hope you guys are as well. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.