The TAFS 2025 Wins Pool Draft

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0:57Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It is time for the annual wins pool draft. We have done this for the last two years. I have lost each of the last two years. Exercise is pretty simple. Me, Derek, and Dave are each going to pick five teams in a snake draft that we think are going to finish with the most wins in the NFL. The goal is to have the most combined wins by the end of the season. We had this wrinkle last year. We're going to keep doing it. We're also picking two teams that are projected to finish with six and a half or fewer wins when you look at Vegas over unders.

1:28Robert Mays: So we're going to have seven teams apiece, 21 teams total. So most of the league compared to what we've done over the last couple of years, I hate my team. You guys will hear that as we go through it. I had the third pick. I feel like I was screwed by the random order generator, but that's where we are right now. So let's get to this year's edition of the 2025 wins pool draft for the athletic football show.

1:54Robert Mays: It's time for an annual tradition. What has become an annual tradition that I have come to loathe because I have lost it over the last two years and paid off a bet that was humiliating in front of all of our colleagues, Derek, two years in a row at radio row. I've had to do terribly embarrassing things in front of everyone we know in our professional space. And I'm really hoping Dave joining us this year and cutting down my percentages of loss from 50 to 33 gets me into a better spot with this. But I'm not holding my breath. So you don't have any more confident that you can beat me necessarily.

2:26Why would I? I don't intend to let you. So I'm feeling pretty good.

2:30Derrik Klassen: I have a really vivid memory of because before I joined the show, I still worked in NFL media. And I remember you in the hot dog costume on Radio Row at the Super Bowl. And I remember thinking, oh, I guess Robert lost the team's bet. And now I'm part of it, and I hope that's not me in six months or four months, whatever it is.

2:48Robert Mays: We will have punishment adjacent to the two that we've had over the last couple of years, where it's not horrible, but you don't want to do it. My favorite part of the hot dog costume was that I was walking into Radio Row that day with Diana, and Jeff Darlington was also there, and it was one of those things where Diana was looking at me, and then Jeff Darlington, who was in this beautiful, well-dressed man in NFL media. She was just like, what did I do? Like, why did I make this decision? So I'm really glad that I can make myself kind of doubt all of my choices and my coworkers based on how this bet goes.

3:20Robert Mays: If you guys have missed the show in the past, the rules are pretty simple. I mean, really adding Dave this year, but everything else stays the same. We're each going to pick five teams this season that we think are going to be good. The loser at the end of all of this has the fewest combined wins among those five teams. We have not done snake in the past, but with three people, we are going to do snake this year. The wrinkle that we added last year is that we are also doing the teams at the bottom of the projected over-unders. There are seven teams this year that have an over-under per Vegas of six and a half or less.

3:53Robert Mays: We are each going to pick two of those teams in addition to our five quote-unquote good teams. Just because you pick them doesn't mean they're going to be good. You hope they're going to be good. So we're going to walk away from this with seven teams each. whoever has the fewest wins combined at the end of the year has to do something very embarrassing at radio row are you guys all okay with that i'm the most okay with that yeah i'm here right like let's yeah let's do it we picked a random order last night dave has the first pick derek has the second pick i have three four and then we will go in snake order from there dave why don't you start us off who are you taking with the number one pick in the 2025 wins pool draft i watched

4:34Derrik Klassen: you do the random name generator so i know it was random but i and i gave myself the last pick so clearly i did not i appreciate i appreciate the leg up in my first year doing this there were really there's two options for me i'm not going to tell you the other one in case y 'all disagree but i i i had two teams that i really feel good about and the team that i'm ultimately going to opt for is the team that always wins 11 or more games if their quarterback is healthy and that's the baltimore ravens lamar jackson when he's playing is a lock for an 11 plus win season they won 14 games a couple years ago a a step back for the ravens last year was 12 wins with lamar being in the mvp conversation i just feel incredibly confident that this team is is going to get me where i want to go and i'm i'm at peace with it my only pushback to that is the

5:23Robert Mays: chiefs have won at least 11 games every single year that patrick mahomes has been the starting

5:27Derrik Klassen: and maybe I'm overthinking it. You're totally right. The Ravens are more fun right now. The Ravens and then like the Ravens, I think are a consistently more entertaining team to watch over the recent past. And on top of that, if we had recorded this before Rishi rice settled for a six game suspension, maybe I would feel differently. Cause remember we just did our AFC West preview and I am bullish on the chiefs offense, but losing Rishi rice for six weeks just makes me wonder like, are we in for a little bit more of the dink and dunk chiefs, the chiefs that went 15 and two, they went 15 and two, but every single week was stressful and, and not guaranteed.

6:07Derrik Klassen: And I do think even if they're the chiefs, I think they're going to win the division. I think they're going to be in the Superbowl conversation, but there's nowhere to go, but down from 15 and two, like what are the odds that you do that again? They weren't a 15 and two team either. I'm mostly kidding. Like they, like they snuck so many of those wins out by the skin of their teeth. So yes, the chiefs are going to be great. This isn't a knock on the chiefs, but with the firepower and the depth that the Ravens have, if I'm picking, if I'm trying to pick the team that I think is going to have the highest win total in the league this year, it's the Ravens and one other team for me.

6:40Derrik Klassen: And not to say the chiefs can't get to the super bowl, but I don't think it's the chiefs.

6:44Robert Mays: Yeah. I would take the Ravens if I had the first overall pick. I just want to be very clear about this. I'm just giving you shit.

6:48Derrik Klassen: Just being an antagonizer. I appreciate it.

6:50Robert Mays: Derek, you're up. You have the number two pick. Who are you going with? I'm a little bitter about not being able to get Lamar Jackson, but that's fine. Despite all of the things that we just said about the Kansas city chiefs, I, there's a degree of certainty with them that I just cannot pass up. So I'm going to take the chiefs. Like I just, they, are they going to win 15 games again? Probably not. But again, when you have Patrick Mahomes, the bar is 11 wins and there's just, I think they're better than they were last year. Like even Rice was hurt all of last year. And so getting 11 games instead of three games out of Rice is still going to be better.

7:22Robert Mays: and Hollywood Brown is there. The offensive line theoretically should be better even with the young guys. Like we've talked about all of this with the Chiefs. I'm totally fine with the Chiefs going number two. I think that's probably when I did my big board, which that's my extent of my preparation here. I do have a 15 team big board. The Chiefs were number two on my rankings coming into this. So I would have taken the Chiefs if you did not. Yeah, okay, fair enough. That makes you feel a little bit better then. I'm at three and four. I think there are, I think there is a little bit of a tear break after three and four.

7:54Robert Mays: Personally, when you look at the teams that are available right now,

7:57Derrik Klassen: you think that's still true after Thursday's news about, Hey, hold this.

8:00Robert Mays: You quiet. There is, there is part of me. There is part of me that maybe I am just a little bit drunk off the Micah Parsons trade yesterday, but I was like, should I take the Packers with one of my two picks here? I'm not going to do that. I still feel like even with Micah Parsons, there are a couple of teams that I feel a little bit better about. I think part of this also is that we did not take the Eagles in the team draft last year and I feel very stupid about that and so we did not take the Eagles because both of us were so afraid of the

8:29Derrik Klassen: Eagles vibes I remember I remember actually and like please believe me when I say that I religiously listen to this show because I texted Robert after that episode and I was like no love for the Eagles at all like even if you don't think they're gonna win 14 games this is

8:44Robert Mays: a really good team I was terrified of this thing coming off the Eagles following that previous season. I really was. I just, and it was wrong and we overstated it, but I think I might be over correcting here a little bit. So I am going to take the Eagles because I just think that the roster is so talented. You get Vic Fangio back. They've like so much continuity on the coaching staff other than the offensive coordinator. So even with a couple of the question marks on defense now with those young guys stepping in, I still feel pretty good about where the Eagles are. And then I'm going to take the bills just because they have the best quarterback remaining of any of the teams.

9:14Robert Mays: Josh Allen, that offense, They bring their entire offense back with Josh Palmer. I think, believe they're still projected to score the most points in the NFL this year. They have the MVP, the defense, you know, there are areas of it that are a little bit shaky, but there is enough proof of concept and enough earned equity from Sean McDermott and that coaching staff, or I think they're at least going to be okay on that side of the ball. And I still feel like the ceiling on offense is as high as anybody's in the NFL. So I'm going to go with the Eagles at three, the bills at four or vice versa, whatever as my two teams.

9:42Derrik Klassen: Now that they're off the board, I'll say I thought about taking the Eagles first. I think that highly of their roster. And I think if assuming relatively good health, I think they'll be able to roll over the vast majority of the teams on their schedule without like scheme or winning on the margins, even coming into it. And they have better continuity on the coaching staff this year. I just, if, if nothing catastrophic happens on an injury standpoint, I think like 12 or 13 wins is the floor for Philadelphia.

10:12Robert Mays: The only reason I like, I still feel like they're stepped down and exercise like this compared to some of the other teams just that just human nature there is a step back after you win the super bowl like i just feel like there's some element of that typically after you win a title and so i there are other teams where the urgency just feels a little bit higher whether or not that should be the driving force here that is my counterpoint my counterpoint to that would be

10:33Derrik Klassen: what if you have a team full of all pros who see this as an opportunity to do something special as hell which they have going back to back is hard to do even the chiefs just did it but historically it's really hard to do and they have the guys who a are talented enough and b have the mindset that hey like winning a super bowl is cool being historic is better and i think i think philly is kind of thinking that way right now that's actually kind of where i got i was like man super bowl hangover all this other stuff i still the offense wasn't as good as we actually felt like it was during the regular season all this stuff but then the more i like stared at the roster over the offseason i was like they're gonna win like 11 games again at least so good pick i

11:14Robert Mays: I think they're going to be awesome. So you're up next to five, Derek. So far, we've got Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Bills. I am ecstatic to take the Green Bay Packers. This, even before the Micah trade, I probably would have leaned the Packers anyway because I think even without Micah Parsons, they were probably the team that I thought could go from like that 11 win to like, oh my God, they won 14 games this year. Now maybe it can be 15 games now that they have Micah Parsons. So I really just do think that they're like like a little bit of a sleeping dragon type of team. And so them getting Micah Parsons, when we spent our whole preview saying, man, so much of this roster is put together.

11:52We love the coaches. Halfley's doing this. LeFleur's doing this. Jordan Love might be better. They just need a little bit more star power. And then you sign like the sixth best player in the entire NFL. Like that's a pretty good way to get some star power. So I'm like over the moon about this team.

12:05Robert Mays: I also, when you look at the trade, and we have not talked that much about the trade because it happened right after we finished our final AFC North preview. And so we just did like a little topper to the AFC preview on the micro trade. It's been obviously several days. You guys are going to be listening to this on Monday. But when you look at what they gave up, those first round picks, like the players you need from first round picks are typically high value players at premium positions. They have two tackles already. They have a quarterback already. They have a pass rusher now and they have interior defensive linemen.

12:33Robert Mays: Like they've spent on a lot of positions. And they just drafted a first round receiver and receiver is the other one. And so I think no team has ever one player away. and what they gave up is it's huge like two first round picks and 47 million dollars a year when you think about the collective value of all those things is huge but all we've talked about is who are the difference making needle moving players going to be on this team it was like the one remaining question about the team and now they have one of those guys and so i completely understand it from their perspective i don't think any roster is ever good enough to say we're the team that can afford to lose two first round picks and spend this amount of money on a player but the packers are the closest thing I could imagine to that being worth it.

13:10Robert Mays: The bills maybe being another one.

13:11Derrik Klassen: On top of that, even if it is a heavy price to pay, it's less than you would have paid if the Cowboys had gotten their shit together and decided to do this before the draft. So it's tough to say a guy making 188 million who cost two first round picks and a Pro Bowl player is a bargain, but you paid less than you would have however many months ago the draft was.

13:32Robert Mays: So Dave, it's back to you now at six after the Packers going at five. You have two picks here at six and seven.

13:38Derrik Klassen: I'd be curious for y 'all's thoughts on this. I think, I think most people agree when you talk about the tear break, like Baltimore, Kansas city, Buffalo, Philly, we agree as being like on their own level, right? I think so. Yes. And then for me, I think green Bay and Detroit are like the next step down. And then I think there's kind of another tear break, at least for me,

14:01Robert Mays: I would probably put one more team in the Packers lions tier, before there's another step down. Because I think in my... I think I'm kind of with Dave. I think everything else after that feels a little like...

14:13Derrik Klassen: So I'm tipping my pick, but I think Detroit and Green Bay, after the four main contenders, are the two next teams that I feel best about. So Derek taking Green Bay just leaves me with the Detroit Lions, who are a bargain at six. Like for however you feel about how they're going to handle the attrition, a team with that much talent at six i feel great about taking like that's completely fine and then for my next pick i'm gonna put my money where my mouth is because i've said on most of our summer shows that i'm not gonna overthink it i'm not gonna worry that they look like a more normal nfl team this year i think the san francisco 49ers are really good and they play an easy schedule and i think they're gonna win a lot of games and i'm gonna put my money where my mouth is and take them.

15:00Derrik Klassen: That was my other third team. And what I believe you would put it like, I see,

15:04Robert Mays: I think they're a step down from green Bay and Detroit. I think they're probably a step down in terms of overall roster talent when you look at that. But if you just think about how that offense has been constructed in years past, when they've been like one of the best offenses in the league, they are still in that category. They got six all pros. They have, they're just, there's still a lot of talent on that team. Kyle Shanahan is still there. And I do think if we're in that mode of let's just not overthink this, like they're probably a 10 or 11 win team. I just think that the offensive stability on that team plus like the some of the talent on the defense it's just a combination that we don't really have anywhere else like i feel like every other team that we're going to talk about here to me has like a bigger question for one unit than the niners do even with some of the questions about the young guys on defense like having warner and bosa i still feel like there's an upside to the defense there that there's not with a lot of the

15:51Derrik Klassen: other teams that we're going to talk about this is going to sound insulting because like the i mean the 49ers are as real as it gets short of having won a super bowl, but like they, they could be a team where we get to the end of the year and I'm like, they got 12 wins. I don't know if that means anything for the post season. Like, I don't know if I trust them in a, in a tournament, but the purposes of this is to find the most wins. And I think they're going to have quite a few of them by the end of the year. So Derek,

16:17Robert Mays: you're up with the eighth pick here. And I do think that this is, I do not like this. This is all, this is all very jumbled. It's, I do not. It's much tougher now.

16:29um man like every team here has some sort of horrible fatal flaw that's exactly what I was saying when I

16:38Robert Mays: just think that I still even with the questions on the Niners defense you would not be you would have immediately taken the Niners oh I would have taken the Niners there are none of the other teams that you would do that with that's a good point like I still like overall roster quality wise the Niners still probably feel a step down to me from like Detroit and Green Bay, but they feel a step above everything else here. So maybe they're in their own past year. That was my exact point. The clarity with which you would take the Niners in this moment if they were available is very different than all of the other teams remaining.

17:08Okay, I'm going to do... I'm not going to like rooting for this team because of how much I've hated parts of their team. I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals, I think. God damn it. I really was hoping you weren't going to do that. I hate this defensive roster, and I still believe that there's a chance that they're like

17:23Derrik Klassen: defense 30 this year but you're gonna have fun whatever but when when joe burrow and james and higgins are out there and hopefully i'm just gonna bet my all of my savings here on fairchild like it's just i'm gonna have to roll with them i really did not expect you to do that i didn't either i was really hoping the bengals defense would scare both of y 'all enough i really did

17:41Robert Mays: not expect you to do that i was really hoping i was gonna get the bengals and i was kind of planning on getting the bengals now that's gonna throw a wrench into my plans okay so you took the bangles at eight i have two picks here this sucks

17:57Robert Mays: so here are all the options right houston denver washington the rams the vikings like to me all these teams are like jumbled into the generally same area and that's why this is difficult everybody has warts everybody has one reason that you would not feel good about them we were talking about this with the what's keeping us up at night about washington and just the pure age on their roster they're the oldest team in the league this year yes with a second year quarter with a 24 or 25 year old strangely built roster in terms of like what they're trying to do

18:31Robert Mays: so man i just i don't feel good about any of this and my board is completely useless right now the way i had these teams ranked before we started i'm not even paying attention to that i was really thinking i was going to get the bangles and then one other team i because of the quarterback quality and because of just the overall competency they showed on offense last year and the offensive line getting better, McCorn now being there, I'm probably going to take Washington at nine. I don't feel great about it. I mean, it's the same thing I just did with Cincy, basically. I don't feel great about it.

19:03I hope that works.

19:04Robert Mays: I still feel like they're a team easily that could go nine and eight and miss the playoffs, but I think that if Jaden is that guy, I will feel very good about this because this is something that I've learned. like the quarterbacks and who you're rooting for a quarterback every single week as part of this exercise is very important. And so I just think that among all the teams that are left, and that's why I would have taken the Bengals among all the teams that are left. I think the only other quarterback, like down to down, I would feel better about right now. If you could guarantee me health would be Stafford, but you can't, but you can't.

19:35Robert Mays: So that's to me why they're so scary. Okay. So I'm going to take Washington at nine here and not feel very good about it. And now this is where things just get absolutely brutal because now you're asking me to pick between a Broncos team that still might be middle of the road offensively. Like the improvements there are all theoretical. A Texans team, the Texans right now, and I, this is, I'm making light of this. I still think the Texas offensive line of pass protection is going to be better than it was last year, even with outwear and we tonsil and even like a slight step down in overall roster talent.

20:09Robert Mays: I think the plan is going to be better enough that it's not going to look like it did last year. but right now if you're just like flashing up a depth chart that commercial back in the day for the nfl draft where they showed a clip of david carr and there were no offensive linemen in front of him that's what the texans actually are right now in terms of who is proven up there so it's terrifying to take them here even though part of me wants to because of cj stroud in the defense

20:30Derrik Klassen: i was about to say i feel like there's a butt coming there

20:36Robert Mays: i think the man i think you can make an argument that you probably make an argument both of these teams the rams and the vikings have the highest upside yes the rams have the highest upside of anybody left two teams remaining but i also think that there's like a significant amount of downside i don't feel good about this and they're not even almost close to the next team up on my board which has become completely meaningless and the prep that i did for this i'm gonna take the ramps i think that's i think that's the right call like i don't think it's the right call i think it's the call i'm gonna feel best about for me it has if you're swinging for the fences this is the 10th this is the 10th pick

21:18Derrik Klassen: and you theoretically you just picked a team with super bowl aspirations like if stafford's healthy This should be a damn good team. I know.

21:26Robert Mays: And this idea of like, if Stafford's healthy, getting to watch him throwing the ball to Puka and Devante all year and like having, you're going to have that even a little bit. That was part of it is that I think the FOMO of missing out on the best version of this Rams team when I could have had it is not a reality that I wanted to face. And so that's why I ultimately went that way.

21:43Derrik Klassen: Not only that, but it could go sideways for them for a month and a half. And we know they could still potentially dig out of it because they've done it two years in a row. So I just,

21:50Robert Mays: with the 10th overall pick, I just took a 38 year old quarterback with a back injury. So I feel real good about that. Well done. All right, we're 10 picks in. We're going to take our first break and then come back with the final five of the good teams part of our draft. Wrapping my arms around my finances has only gotten trickier as I've gotten older. It might not seem like that's the way it's supposed to go, but that is indeed the way it is. Paying a mortgage, paying your bills, paying for daycare, paying for kids activities. It just gets a little trickier and trickier as you get older and as your life gets fuller.

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26:25Robert Mays: All right, Derek, you're up here with the 11th pick. I have a feeling where you'll go with this pretty quickly. I think it's we just talked about how much the Houston offensive line is like not a real thing, but I think I'm going to take the Houston Texans. I just if at this stage I'm having to bet on. Defenses that are really cool, but I want to watch some part of the offense for me, I would rather just pick CJ Stroud. And I also think for as good as the Broncos defense is, I think if I had to pick the best defense in the league today, it would be Houston. And I just love D 'Amico Ryan's. they have a horrendous division probably still in a way that the Broncos absolutely do not in a way that the Vikings absolutely do not so I'm I'm gonna take the Texans despite the five guys standing in front of CJ Stroud the division is also a good thing to bring up with taking Houston over the Rams and and my initial exercise and how I rank them it's part of why I put the Texans ahead of the Rams and then I just completely ignored it when it came time to make my pick it's the beauty

27:18Derrik Klassen: of the exercise I think this whole exercise is just about confirming your prior that's exactly

27:22Robert Mays: right yeah yeah which is this i mean so we had 10 teams on our seat at the table show that we did for the teams that we think can win the super bowl which is not this right this is a different exercise this is regular season wins but 10 of those 11 teams now that we've picked were in that exercise the other teams that we didn't have were left off so we're kind of in lockstep with how we

27:45Derrik Klassen: went about that a couple weeks ago which tracks because it's funny i don't feel that conflicted about this i think y 'all might i know derek derek would because he's a hater of this team that i've grown to love so much i feel i'll take tampa bay oh man oh interesting i'll take tampa bay and i feel fine about it oh i like it's all the stuff we laid out and we said it at the end of the seat at the table episode and i've thought about it ever since is we're sitting here debating the Houston and Minnesota of it all. And I'm like, Tampa Bay doesn't have as much high end talent, but like you might feel better about just the overall state of their roster.

28:27Derrik Klassen: And again, they play in the NFC South. We can, I'm sure we're going to talk about the Falcons in a little bit. I mean, if they jump up, then that could change the calculus here, but I expect Tampa to have an easier path to winning their division than a lot of the teams that we're still considering. And I know that's not the point here, but if you win your division, it means you're going to have

28:45Robert Mays: probably 10 wins you have two picks here so it matters a little bit less who you took like i'll be curious who your next pick is i want to i want to hear your next pick before i ask you about alternatives and pads you did not explore it's funny all right let me all right now that because

28:59Derrik Klassen: tampa so i've got a tiered tampa was the last team on the previous tier that i had so that was easy

29:06Robert Mays: you really okay now who's your next team i like the bucks and i'm not i'm i don't care who knows

29:11Derrik Klassen: it now i'm i'm a little stuck here because i don't love my options quite so much oh boy i don't want

29:21Robert Mays: to i don't want to share too much about like how i think about this until he gives me his next team because then because i have thoughts about like the tiering and and where you cut it off and who you might take i hate this a lot but you know what

29:39Derrik Klassen: I feel like I've gotten a lot of hate for my opinions about what their ceiling might be and since we're in this situation I mean we're pretty far down the board at this point I'll I'll ride on JJ I'll ride with JJ McCarthy I'll take the Minnesota Vikings swing I'll take the swing again like you you guys have laid it out for me every time we've talked about it we don't need this guy to do that much for this to be a really good team so that's true again we're we're not taking him at the top of the draft. We're well into this exercise at this point. I am comfortable betting on JJ McCarthy's upside because it doesn't have to be that high for me to benefit from it.

30:15Robert Mays: No, it doesn't. He has to be a pretty good quarterback for this team to be really good based on the overall roster talent on both sides of the ball. I mean, what they have built in terms of the personnel on offense, plus Kevin O 'Connell, we've talked about it a million different times. I understand where you're going with this. I I'm not sharing too much because there's, I'm a little bit surprised about how this has gone. And so I want to wait until you pick before I like finish downloading my thoughts.

30:39Derrik Klassen: Robert's just waiting for you to say a name. And then he's like, you fools. This is, these are the flaws in your logic.

30:44Robert Mays: Strongly about it. But I'm like, I don't want to share too much before you make your pick. I really hate where I'm at here. I know you do. Any of these, like this all feels disgusting.

30:55Derrik Klassen: There's a team left that I was tempted to take. I'm curious to see if they go off the board here. Yeah. at this stage, I'm like a little bit thinking about just like flipping on one of the teams that is a little bit lower on the board that I think just might have like really crazy upside. But Denver is still on the board. Correct. I'll just go with that. I really, really, really thought you weren't going to do that.

31:21Robert Mays: So there is a lot of them. I'm so bummed about this. I thought that the Bo Nick stuff would really dissuade you from doing it. That's really upsetting. A lot of the Bo Nick stuff freaks me out because he, between the way that the pass protection was set up between how much they RPO stuff between how much like the offense was still good despite him being pretty bad under pressure all of that feels like that could really regress and they could be not very good on offense but at this stage the best unit left on the board is the Broncos defense and I think you have enough faith in how like buttoned up and professional I'm betting on Sean Payton and I think betting on Bo Nix to an extent is okay yeah i'm really surprised that the broncos do you think i was gonna take la i didn't know what you were gonna do okay i truly don't know what you were gonna do but i when you said that you had the bucks like a tier above all these other teams that was surprising to me because i do think i had the broncos like right in line with even like the texans like i would be okay taking the broncos right behind the texans so i had them like 12th and so the idea that i was almost gonna get them at 15 that's why i wasn't saying anything because i was very excited about

32:26Derrik Klassen: that it is fun i'm i'm i'm not questioning myself i feel good about it honestly but it is interesting like i just took the vikings who have an unknown at quarterback and you feel that good about the rest of their roster i should feel really really good about the broncos roster and we've seen their quarterback get them to 10 wins but i think the high end talent on offense is different for denver than it is yeah no it is it is for sure but i can imagine a broncos fan being like you have less faith in a team that's done it versus a team that's breaking in a new quarterback and my answer is kind of yeah like I'm I'm fine slow playing Bo Nix I don't think he's bad I think the Broncos will be good this year but I'm comfortable not purchasing a ticket for that

33:08Robert Mays: ride I think I wanted just a little bit more I mean certainty is always hard to say like defenses we know about volatility with defenses and I just feel like I would have felt best about taking the Broncos after the Texans and so I was really hoping that I was going to be able to now like What we're in here now after that group, it was easy for me to do the top 14, right? The top 14 that we just did, those are the top 14 teams that I had. Getting to 15 after that, I think is a little bit more difficult because the other teams right now that have a projected over under of nine and a half, there's only one more of them.

33:42Robert Mays: The Chargers are the only other team at nine and a half or more that we have not selected yet. And I just am worried about the Chargers. Like I, as much as I love Justin Herbert, and for as well as I thought Justin Herbert played last year, the current state of that offensive line concerns me. They're still like, we're hoping the young skill position players are going to be good, but who knows? And the defense... Their worst talent was than they were last year. They're extremely well coached, but I just don't know how much they're going to be able to keep doing this defensively. And you saw what they did against any good quarterback that they played in the back half of last year.

34:18Robert Mays: I know they were banged up at safety, all that stuff. And I think they'll be solid. I think overall they will be solid. But my concern is the ceiling is just not high with this team on either side of the ball. And so now you get back into the teams that are eight and a half or more. And I do think there is one team in that eight and a half range that I feel better about compared to the others. And I'm going to take them here instead of the Los Angeles Chargers. Say it. It is the Seattle Seahawks. Oh, okay.

34:50Derrik Klassen: Not what I expected. Who'd you expect? so that that's the last team right yes y 'all are gonna think i'm crazy but again we're just talking about getting to the end of the regular season with a high amount of wins i considered taking miami oh i can't do it they're gonna be the worst team i don't want to watch them i don't want to watch that oh i i i i trust them to get to a decent win that's probably a not a bad bed but also the downside swing is

35:19Robert Mays: disaster. I think the upside swing for Miami is like the best case scenario for Miami is they win like 10 games.

35:25Derrik Klassen: What do you think is the best case scenario for Seattle?

35:28Robert Mays: I think the best case scenario for Seattle is they win 10 games. I think the worst case scenario for Seattle is they win seven games. I do not think that is the case for the Dolphins.

35:35Derrik Klassen: You think the floor is that low for Miami? I mean, unfortunately you just can't count on Tua's health for starters on top of several other things. But just the vibes are like, and that's not a very scientific way to do this and I think we like to pride ourselves for thinking about the sport in a in more than that but it's just like sometimes you can look at a team and you're just like that's

35:51Robert Mays: not right like that just does not look good i just don't i i'm just so worried about the chargers offense outside of justin herbert at this point that i just couldn't feel good about i also that

36:00Derrik Klassen: like i could be wrong and especially with slater out even if the chargers are like a pretty good team i don't think they're gonna be that fun to watch part of it as well which like that sounds insane because justin herbert is such a fun player but i just i don't know i have questions about it I have questions about how good the passing attack is going to be. I feel a little less good about Amari and Hampton now that you're all pro left tackles, not playing this year. So I don't have a problem with you passing them up.

36:28Robert Mays: And the other eight and a half teams, Bears, Steelers, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins. I mean, Patriots and Dolphins, non-starters. Like we've talked about this with the Patriots, like them being at eight and a half to me is like, I don't really understand that. Like, I just think that that's just pretty aggressive. considering what last year looked like and i mean the is carlton davis and milton williams like enough to get you to nine wins considering everything else in the roster i don't know i just don't think so steelers i've had it on record where like i think the disaster potential for the steelers is higher than we think it is arizona probably would have been in one of those teams where i think the floor is relatively high i just think that the seahawks defense i do think that there is like a real chance they could be one of the best defenses in the league.

37:13Robert Mays: And so I, essentially you're betting on the upside of the Cardinals defense versus the upside of the Seahawks offense. And I, I'm already kind of in on the Seahawks offense. Like I, my like main fantasy team has JSN and Kenneth Walker on it. Like I'm kind of buying it. And so that's where I'm going. And I do think that the Seahawks defense has a chance to be really good and really fun. And so having a little bit of buy-in into this Seahawks season on multiple different levels, I'm okay with that. I mean, at this stage in the draft, the only unit here where I would like bet on them to be a top five unit on their side of the ball is the Seahawks defense.

37:48Yes. And so maybe that's too simple of a way to do it. But like, that's probably what I would.

37:52Robert Mays: And that's always like famous last words when it comes to defenses. But I just think that the Cardinals offense, there's a defined ceiling on the Cardinals offense. Yeah, they didn't do anything. I just don't think that they can be like one of the best three or four offenses in the league.

38:03Derrik Klassen: I'm doing mental math right now. But so the NFC West and the NFC North are the only divisions where we took three teams from each, I think.

38:11Robert Mays: Yeah.

38:12Derrik Klassen: Sounds about right.

38:13Robert Mays: And again, the chargers play in the AFC West. Like I think the AFC West is going to be pretty brutal every single week. So I, I do think that there were 14 teams that were easy. And I think that there was one team that was always going to be tough. And that to me was the Seahawks. And it's because of the injuries, the chargers are already dealing with. And I just don't, I don't feel great about their ceiling. I just don't, I think that their floor is probably pretty high, but I, the, it's definitely a mystery box thing with the Seahawks where like the defense plus the changes on offense. I'm like, I'm just more interested in caring about this than I am about the Chargers right now.

38:43Robert Mays: I think that's completely fair.

38:44Derrik Klassen: And well, I'll say it one more time. I think I've said it a few times already. I think that works against the Dolphins as well. I think I think people I think we are bored by what the Dolphins have been and how similar they're going to look to last.

38:58Robert Mays: It's the complete opposite thing for me, because I think the Chargers, I do think there's a level of safety with the Chargers right now. I think the Dolphins are the least safe pick you could make in this range by far. is there any scenario they're not the least safe pick in this range is there any of these teams that are like 8.5 or 9.5 maybe the Bears if I told you what are the odds that the Chargers are the worst team in the NFL low very low what are the odds that the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL decent yes that's why I think it's very different when you're talking about the Dolphins and the Chargers

39:36Derrik Klassen: It sucks because if you could guarantee me that Tua would play the vast majority of the season, I'd be like, there's no chance. But you can't. And that sucks.

39:44Robert Mays: I still think they could win like six games if Tua plays the vast majority of the season.

39:47Derrik Klassen: If he's healthy for all 17 weeks, I'd think they're like an eight or nine win.

39:51Robert Mays: What if Tyreek Hill was just like a non-factor three weeks into the year because he's chosen he doesn't want to be a part of this anymore? They have way more disaster potential than I think the linemen are bad.

40:01Derrik Klassen: I'm curious to see. I just I see that I think the Dolphins are they're not they're not good and clearly I didn't pick them either. So let's start there. But I just I think I think some of the alarmist stuff with the Dolphins gets overstated. But we'll see. We'll see. I don't know. Other than the fact that you can't count on the quarterback to play a full season. And that is very real, unfortunately, for him. So that is valid. But if I had more confidence into his health, I they would probably be on my team. Guys, let me jump in for a sec. If we, so we started this off when Robert took the Eagles and said, we didn't take them last year, right?

40:40We didn't take them last year. If there's a team in this group that a year from now we're sitting here doing this and saying, oh my God, I can't believe we didn't take X. Is there one? Is there a team that we think we could be saying that about a year from now, the way that we said it about the Eagles just now? It's a great question. I mean, it would be the Bears. Like if Caleb is good in the defense is what you think it is. It's the Bears, right?

40:59Robert Mays: And I, under no circumstances, am I ever going to do that? I'm going to do that. Yeah. That's because with any time there's, it's why I don't often gravitate toward bears and fantasy football either. It's like, if I'm invested in two places, then I can be let down in two places. I'm already invested emotionally in the quality of the team. So if they're good, I'm going to find the benefits of that. So I would rather hedge my bets emotionally with the bears. So that's why I don't do them. You don't need to double dip. There's no reason. There's no upside to it. I'm already going to be happy enough if they're good in my personal life.

41:31Robert Mays: I don't need to let it bleed into stuff like this.

41:33Derrik Klassen: I mean, in the interest of anticipating all outcomes, and I thought about this too. Here I go being an NFC South apologist again, but I'll mention Atlanta. Again, like if Michael Penix Jr. is awesome, then that is a team with a much higher ceiling than I think people are talking about.

41:49Robert Mays: And that's actually a good one.

41:51Derrik Klassen: Yeah. If the Falcons win 11 games because he kicks ass, is that super shocking to anybody? I, we have not talked about the Falcons as part of this. We probably should, because I do think that.

41:59Robert Mays: I thought you might take them. No, you've hinted all summer how much you like that. That's way too scary to me. And it's the defense and, and the front, who knows about the front is not good. Maybe they'll be okay, but we have absolutely no idea. So I think the, just the complete unknown on defense, plus the fact that we're going into the season. I know Darnell Mooney is practicing again. It looks like Darnell Mooney might play week one. That's great. But now we're down. Caleb Gary's on IR and Storm Norton's going to miss like five weeks. Like we already have a whole, a tackle for a team that was pretty healthy on offense last year and is not deep on that side of the ball combined with a complete unknown on defense.

42:34Robert Mays: So I'm open to the idea that the Falcons are an 11 win playoff team. That's fine to me, but I do think that there are enough significant question marks personnel wise where I just, I can't do it.

42:44Derrik Klassen: I might've, I might've considered it more heavily if McGarry was healthy, but there, yeah, there's just enough stuff to be worried about before we've even started playing.

42:53Robert Mays: I think maybe, I mean, I don't know. What do you think? Like the best case scenario wins losses for the Falcons is it's always really dangerous to put this stuff on tape in late August, by the way. Like, absolute best case scenario, I like... Even 11 feels gross coming out of my mouth. I think they can win 12 games. Everything breaks all the time. We just saw the commanders do this. We just watched it. You're betting that Michael Penix

43:17Derrik Klassen: is that kind of good. Crazy shit happens in the NFL every year. But I don't want to put that into the universe. I'm open to the idea that he can be really good.

43:24Robert Mays: And the offense can be like a top three or four offense in the league.

43:26Derrik Klassen: I am open to that. It's all I'm saying is that I can, I can see that world. I can see the Falcons as an 11 win team. Do I, if you really want me to like, do I really believe it? Not, not really, but like I can, I can squint and see it. I told y 'all I love to squint. Part of me wishes I would have taken the Falcons instead of the Seahawks. I really thought you were going to like, it seems like you're, you're, you're bought in on what the vision could be at least. I'm going to stick with the Seahawks.

43:55Robert Mays: I'm interested in what the Seahawks are going to be. I don't know. There's no good options here.

43:58Derrik Klassen: None of these things are going to make you feel good about yourself. For the record, I don't think the Seahawks are a bad pick, but you said that you really had to explain it to yourself.

44:07Robert Mays: Again, I don't feel good about any of this. I don't know how you can with that 15 team. I think the Chargers are probably the safest bet. I think there's probably a lot of people screaming that it should be the Chargers. I just, I'm not interested in that. I'm just not interested in that for 17 games. Even with the Herbert part of it, I just find the rest of the roster unappealing and uninteresting. I just rooting for that and like caring about it for 17 weeks. I just, it's not a, it's not for me. I heard it's not for me. The safe pick at 15 is how you end up with a face full of unicorn makeup.

44:37Yeah, exactly. Exactly.

44:39Robert Mays: So I'm fine going with the Seahawks. I understand there could be an argument for the Chargers. All right. We're going to take one more quick break and then we're going to come back with the teams that are projected to win six and a half or fewer games. We're each going to pick two of those. We'll be right back. As I've crept closer to 40, I've tried to stay pretty active. working out five to six times a week, eating as well as I can most days. But like a lot of people, my energy and recovery just aren't quite what it used to be. The problem for most people trying to optimize their health and performance is that they're flying blind.

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49:33Robert Mays: So before we get to your pick here, Dave, the seven teams that are picked for Vegas that have an over-under of six and a half or fewer are the Titans, Panthers, Raiders, Giants, Jets, Browns, and Saints. I probably should have reversed the order here for the bad teams if I wanted to be fairer to myself, but I don't really care that much, and I didn't want to do the math on it. So I'm going to let you pick first again, Dave, for the bad teams. I think I know where you're going with this, considering you've tried to bring it up like three times so far.

49:59Derrik Klassen: It's a huge sigh of relief. I mean, I feel bad that I get to go first because I have more anxiety about these teams that I did about picking the good teams. And yeah, I'm just going to ride with the Tennessee Titans. I'm not going to think that hard about it. And even if they're not good, I just I'm signing up to root for Cam Ward.

50:16Robert Mays: The process is correct.

50:17Derrik Klassen: We love we all love Cam Ward. I think he's so fun. Even if the Titans suck, like watching him play quarterback sounds like it's going to be fun this year. And they might not suck. They might be really good if he's if he's the guy that I think he is. that the Titans could be a surprise playoff contender. So this was easy. Like, and I was like more antsy to pick the Titans

50:37Robert Mays: than I was to pick the Ravens, honestly. I think among all of these seven teams, I think every single one of them has a chance to be like a four win team. I think, so the downside, I think, is relatively similar for all of them. And I think if you're trying to build the case for who could be this year's Texans, who could be this year's Washington, it's obvious, but I do think the Titans have the best case for that. And to me, it's a combination of the quarterback plus the offensive line being potentially as good as it is compared to all the other teams in this range that's why i would just feel really good about picking the titans here even if i mean i think they're overrunners only five and a half there are several teams that are six and a half that are above them but they absolutely would

51:12Derrik Klassen: have been my first pick if i were sitting there we were joking about this last night just hanging out talking ball he did some questionable things but if the titans hit the ground running i hope ran carthon gets a thank you card or something for the additions that he made to set this up because some of the stuff that they did while he was their GM could greatly benefit Cam Ward, even if he also did some questionable things on the defensive side of the ball. Like their offense, if Cam Ward is the man, could really be a fun unit and could be the reason why this is a team with a lot of wins. Yeah, I mean, if I had had the first pick, it would have been the Titans because I am prone to in these exercises picking the cool quarterback.

51:51But also, like I've talked about on the show a million times, how much I love Denard Wilson and his defense. And I think that front could be pretty good. So they Titans felt like the obvious choice here.

51:59Robert Mays: So you were here to who are you taking? I have a feeling I know where you're going with this. I'm going to ride with Pete Carroll, man. Like, you know, Brock Bowers. It's just like at this stage, almost like at the top of the exercise, it's just like, what of these teams do I want to root for? And there there probably are one or two more other teams on here that like I will enjoy dumpster diving and watching those teams on Sunday. but the Raiders are the team that it's like, I can sell myself on the idea that they're like still in the wild card hunt at the very end. Whereas a lot of these other teams, it's like, I really have to squint for it.

52:30Robert Mays: The Raiders offense could be good. Yeah. Like the Raiders offense absolutely could be good. And the defense is obviously a huge question mark when you look at just the roster on that side of the ball. But I completely understand taking the Raiders at two here. I would have taken them as one of my two picks, no matter what you had done, if you had not taken them. I do think there, there's probably one team here that I'm is more appealing to me than the others. I'm going to take them as one of them. And that is the Carolina Panthers. Yeah. I figured that was, I talked about this. I am excited to watch the offense.

52:57Robert Mays: I'm excited to watch what it looks like. I do think that they have like at least a smidge of upside offensively compared to some of the other teams here that I'm curious about. And so getting to watch Bryce Young and the version of Bryce Young, when we saw in the second half of last year, as part of this, I'm totally fine with that. So I'm going with the Panthers after that. it's harder. I think for me with this group, the Titans, the Panthers and the Raiders were the three teams. I would have been most excited to pick after that. It becomes a little bit more difficult. I don't feel good about this, but I do think that if you're telling me of all the remaining teams, giants, jets, Brown saints, that one of these teams was like a surprise wildcard team.

53:41Robert Mays: It's probably the giants. Yes. Right. Talent wise. They probably had the most firepower.

53:45Derrik Klassen: It's probably the giants. I think they're also the most intriguing because there's the potential to inject a first round picket quarterback into the lineup and see what happens there.

53:53Robert Mays: Yeah, I think that's right. And I so the idea that Jackson Dart could be pretty good if he starts playing early in the year combined with the front that they have Malik neighbors. I do think the Giants are just a little bit. Firepower is a good way to put it. I just think that there's a little bit more or the Giants than pretty much any of the other teams that we could talk about here. I think the Jets have a chance to be like sneaky competent. we talked about the Browns I think the Browns offense could be like a watchable unit despite having Joe Flacco a quarterback but I do think that the Giants are probably the last team here that I would feel decent about and so I'm going to go with the Giants and the Panthers as my two picks I think when you're down here it's just like the simple math is if you grab the five best players from each of these teams yeah it's probably it's it's got to be the Giants so even if I feel icky about other parts of their roster that's probably what I would have done here okay i wasn't gonna mess with any sort of like draft voodoo or anything early on but i'm just gonna say it now for angst purposes potentially robert you've got three nfc east teams

54:52Derrik Klassen: it is what it is it is what it is hey we did a show about it beller the three playoff teams have come from one division every year of the expanded format like if the giants win seven games is the

55:04Robert Mays: third place team in the nfc east like whatever that's probably for the purposes of this exercise In this situation, if the Eagles win 14 games, Washington wins 11 games as the two seed in the NFC, as the second place team in the NFC East, and the Giants win seven or eight games, like that's totally possible. What the hell happened to the Cowboys? I was about to mention that.

55:24Derrik Klassen: They're the team that gets left off, which is fitting for the Aussies. I'm picking best team regardless of anything if I'm part of this, but I remember you last year at this time really, really forming into the schedule and the matchups.

55:35Robert Mays: That's why I didn't look at any of that this year, because last year it did nothing for me. I'm just picking the teams I want to root for as part of this today. All right. So Derek, you are up. You had, this is your last pick. We have the jets, the Browns and the saints are the three teams remaining. I'm just, I I'm just in the bag for Aaron Glenn. So I'm just going to take that. You were going anywhere else. Yeah. Like I know I've been like the weird saints guy on this podcast for a long time, but I I'm not doing it with them over, over the jets. Like Aaron Glenn, I just trust him a lot. Defense will be at least better than it was for most of last year.

56:08And then I'm going to definitely be holding onto my hat for the offense. But if the offensive line is good enough, I could enjoy that. So, you know, I'll take it.

56:16Robert Mays: Dave, what a choice. You are. This is this is tough. I joked before we went live that you were going to have to pick between your home team and the Cleveland Browns, which is never a good spot to be in.

56:26Derrik Klassen: I'm I'm so conflicted here. Like, I mean, there's more to like about the Browns on paper. I think like we did the AFC North preview yesterday or on Thursday. I think Myles Garrett and the defense are going to rebound at least a little bit, even if they're not the best defense in the league. I think they'll be better than they were last year. Joe Flacco is a guy that can get you some wins. He's done it before. I'm so mainly I'm worried about what happens if there's a quarterback switch and like when that happens and how much it affects the Browns ability to win. Like if they're starting a rookie in October, that changes the calculus for me a lot.

57:04Derrik Klassen: and it sounds potentially very unfun to watch. But then that's the saints from the beginning. Yes, right. Exactly. That's the saints right now. And I think at the, I mean, I'm from new Orleans. I grew up a saints fan. It's very tempting to just ride with that because of my history with that franchise.

57:27Derrik Klassen: And you know what? That's what I'm going to do because I, whatever that's, that's where I'm from. and maybe Spencer Rattler will be more fun than I think. But just in general, I just the Browns, the Browns have bummed me out for most of the last like five years. And I just know good choice.

57:43Robert Mays: I want to be clear about this.

57:45Derrik Klassen: I don't want to associate with that energy. And like Kellen Moore is a new coach. Maybe the Saints could be a pleasant surprise. I right now I know that I'm probably making a mistake. Like if I had to guess, I think the Browns finish with more wins than the Saints. But I'm more intrigued by what. the rat man i mean the rat man and kellen moore and like nobody's got expectations at all for the saints so anything we get is a pleasant surprise and i said it on the nfc south preview too like it's baked into that franchise's dna to like they're like they are not gonna tank they're gonna find a way to annoy everybody and win like five games and they probably shouldn't but that's what they'll do and for some dumb reason that just sounds more entertaining to me than trying to ride with the Cleveland Browns so who dat all right those are our 21 teams that we are going to

58:39Robert Mays: be riding with going into the year we're not going to reveal the punishment we haven't done any over the last couple years because I do think the surprise at the end is actually worth it and so that's what we've done that's what we're going to continue to do just know it's going to be in a similar sort of vein all right you kept track of who has who on which team so read off the teams real quick. All right, here we go. Dave Hellman, inaugural year in the athletic football show Winspool. You've got Ravens, Lions, 49ers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Titans, and Saints. Derek Klassen going for back-to-back Winspool victories.

59:09Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Texans, Broncos, Raiders, Jets, and Robert trying to get off the punishment train. Eagles, Bills, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks, Panthers, Giants. A lot of NFC in there, Robert. My team is terrible. I felt see the differences that we're doing this with two people. You can look at your four and five teams and like sell yourself on all of them and be like, I'm going to be great. Now that it's split between three people, I get to like my fourth team and I'm like, this feels bad.

59:40Robert Mays: I immediately regret the commander's Rams double. I just immediately regret that. But I also don't know if I would have felt better about any of the teams behind them.

59:48Derrik Klassen: I love my picks. I picked first. I guess you're the eternal optimist. You know how your buddy tells you his fantasy team and you're like, what the f***? Are you playing in an eight-team league? Like, that's how I feel about my team. I feel like I'm stacked. I'm ready to go.

1:00:03Robert Mays: Jaden Daniels better be really f***ing good this year. All right. That is all we've got for today. We'll be back on the feed tomorrow with the second episode of Building the Beast with Dave Hellman and Dane Brugler breaking down week one, a loaded week one in the college football world. For the rest of the week, we have our awards and predictions coming to your guys' way on Wednesday. We're going to have a week one preview on Thursday. And I think we might just drop our week one, our opening game recap that we're going to do for YouTube. We'll just drop that in the feed on Friday. I think that's what we're going to end up doing.

1:00:35Robert Mays: So we have a loaded week coming to your guys' way. And by the time you listen to this or shortly after, we are going to have some very fun announcements coming about the athletic football show in 2025. So appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.

1:01:20Derrik Klassen: We'll see you next time. everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5 % cash back at different categories each quarter on up to$1 ,500 in purchases. That's 5 % cash back at different places each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash five for details.