The teams we can't quite figure out approaching the 2025 season

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1:14Dave Helman: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I am Derek Klassen. Robert is on vacation again. He is in Italy. And so in his stead, we are bringing in a good friend, Dave Hellman, who obviously, you know, If you guys remember from the free agency show, he joined us for a little bit and helped with that. So he is here for a full episode today and he's going to help me talk about some of the teams that this offseason, we just don't feel like we can get a good handle on. And I think we both approach this from from a different lens. And that's kind of part of the beauty of just throwing out a script to whoever you're doing the show with and seeing where they land on it.

1:46Dave Helman: My view was a little bit more looking at teams over and unders and being like, that feels a little bit weird. I don't really know if I like that. I don't know if that squares with, you know, the hype that they're getting or how I feel about them. And I think Dave took this a little bit more from the angle of who does this team think they are and where do they think they're going? And so I think we had a really good mix of teams here, just about seven or eight teams that we just, you know, it's it's July and we still don't feel like we have a good handle of who they are. And I'm not sure we will by this time the season kicks off in September.

2:17Dave Helman: So here to help me finish that show is Dave Hellman. Let's get to it.

2:25Dave Helman: All right. It's time to talk about the teams that we can't quite get a handle on, whether that's going to be teams that I don't know, you look at that over under win total and you're like, hmm, that doesn't really help me think about how I perceive that team. Or you look at what they've done with their roster construction, offseason, all that jazz. And you think, I don't really get any of that. And I don't know who you are and I don't know where you're going. And to help me do that, we have Dave Hellman. Dave, how are you doing today? I am wonderful, Derek. Thanks for having me on, man. I'm looking forward to this.

2:53Dave Helman: Yeah, I appreciate you coming on. Obviously, Robert right now is on vacation. He is over in Italy. And so we're bringing you in to help us out, do a little co-hosting here. And I think I'm really excited for this. Unfortunately, before we really get into the meat of the show, we've got some bad news about Tristan Wirfs, obviously. It came out, I want to say a couple of days ago, where this show is going to come out on Friday. I believe this came out. This news came out on Wednesday. He's going to miss the early part of the season with a knee surgery that cropped up this off season. He had a little bit of a setback and he's going to have some issues where he's probably going to miss at least the first four games of the season, if not more, recovering from this knee surgery.

3:29Dave Helman: And just to paint the picture for the people, their first four games this year are at Falcons, at Texans versus the New York Jets and versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Now, three of those teams have really, really good pass rushes. One of them is going to try to tell you that they do now with the Atlanta Falcons, having just spent two first round picks on some pass rushers. But when you look at, you know, kind of what the Bucs are and what they were last year, obviously now transitioning into a new offensive coordinator. And then you look at this schedule that they're going to have to play now without Tristan Wurst.

4:00Dave Helman: How do you feel about how they're going to maybe get off to the start of this season?

4:04Derrik Klassen: I mean, just in general, right? I mean, you potentially are facing life without your best player. And I mean, it's a tricky conversation because quarterbacks are weighted so heavily. But like if you go down the Buccaneers roster, I mean, Tristan Wirfs is arguably he at least has a case to be the best left tackle in football. He's certainly in that that stratosphere. And he's so much fun to watch. I think if we eliminate quarterbacks, then I mean, this is very high up there with just like a devastating loss that impacts the team. I mean, he's such a good player. He's such a fun player. It legitimately bummed me out when I heard this news because I do think it affects the Bucs trajectory that much.

4:47Derrik Klassen: Not to say that they can't weather the storm. I mean, this is a team that had so much success in the screen game last year. Like, I'm sure they can dial up ways to be successful without him for a month or so. But all summer long, Derek, I mean, you can tell me if I'm crazy. But throughout the offseason, I've been formulating a take that, like, the Bucs are for real. Like the Bucks are a team that could actually contend. They're not like a cute team that could just win a bad division. Like this is a team that could win a lot of games and, and give the best teams in the NFC a hard time. And not to say that that's not true anymore, but it's tough if they really don't have them.

5:26Derrik Klassen: So I'm, I'm coping right now really by saying, well, he's 26 years old. He is a super freak athlete. He's one of those rare guys. So I'm coping by saying like, Like, well, maybe he can beat this timeline. Like, maybe he got the procedure now. It's early July. You know, there's still basically two months until anybody's got to play football. Maybe he can beat it out and not have to go on pup. Like, that's what I'm doing over here. I don't know how delusional that is, but that's certainly what I'm hoping. Because I am, I'm really excited about this Bucs team, provided they have one of the best left tackles in football available.

6:03Dave Helman: I mean, that's a good point, though, guys, in the prime of his career. and he really is one of the best athletes at the position. Like, it's not often we think of an offensive lineman like a true weapon for the offense, but when you think of the true best tackles, like the Penne Sewells, Trent Williams, obviously now Tristan Wirfs, those guys, you can kind of center the offense around them. And you mentioned their screen game. Like, it was really good because obviously Liam Cohen put some stuff well together and they tied the run game to the pass game really well and they called it at the right times.

6:31Dave Helman: But it was also because you have this left tackle who's like 315 pounds and is the best athlete on the field and he can go find a safety or a linebacker out at the second level. And now without him being able to do that, I do think maybe that is going to hurt them a little bit. I do wonder, like, I hope that it doesn't feel like the Trent Williams absences, because, you know, when we've seen these the 49ers over the past handful of years, their splits when Trent Williams is on the field and when he's off the field, it's almost like it's a completely different offense. And I do think now that they're adding the element of new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, that could complicate some things.

7:05But hopefully, hopefully they can ride the storm.

7:08Dave Helman: You know, Falcons should still be beatable. Jets should still be beatable. And I think even with Tristan worse, like the Texans games and the Eagles games were probably going to be very tough anyway. So if he does miss these four games and they can still get to it through it, two and two, that's probably fine. If especially like you're saying, he comes back by week five and he looks like Tristan worse because he's the best athlete on in the sport.

7:28Derrik Klassen: This is one of those things where I mean, it all sounds good. Like you're like, OK, like you're doing the mental math. Like, OK, if it's if it's eight weeks, then that'll put him back at week five. But it's usually not that easy. Right. Like no, no two human bodies are the same. It takes some guys longer. Knock on wood. We hope not. But maybe this is a bigger deal than they think. It's it's too early to know. But like like we said, I mean, a 26 year old guy who I mean, he's he's one of those NFL players who's just not like the rest of us. Right. I mean, we're not like any NFL player. He makes it very clear.

7:59Derrik Klassen: Yeah, he's in a special category. So if you're going to bet on a guy to defy the expectations when it comes to an injury, he seems like the type. And yeah, I mean, yeah, I just I love watching the guy play. I definitely like when you talk about the special class of tackle who a rarely needs help and be like you said, can move in space and erase guys from the play. There's just not very many of them, you know, like my Lada Pene Sewell come to mind. but there just aren't very many of those guys. And Baker's a mobile quarterback. We mentioned the screen game, but I think you're right. I mean, the new OC in Tampa, I think Josh Grizzard, I think.

8:40Derrik Klassen: Who was on the staff last year, thankfully?

8:42Dave Helman: That helps a little bit, maybe.

8:43Derrik Klassen: You better design it right, though. Like, you better be on your P's and Q's quick because teams are going to zero in on that. So, like I said, I'm coping right now. I hope Tristan Wirfs is available for the vast majority of the season. But it was a bummer to hear that.

8:59Dave Helman: Yeah, it definitely was. So good luck to the Bucks. And obviously, you know, good luck to him on his recovery. Hopefully he can come back pretty healthy and we see the best of Tristan Tristan worse by October. And we forget that any of this even happened. All right, let's get into the meat of the show. Like I said, we're talking about teams that we just for one reason or another reason or another. We spent this entire offseason looking at moves and looking at win totals and for all these teams. But for some reason, we've got seven or eight teams here that we just we still don't feel good about how we feel about them.

9:28Dave Helman: And so I'm going to let you start, Dave. Who do you want to start with for teams that you just you can't feel like you sink your teeth into right now?

9:34Derrik Klassen: Well, let me just say I love this topic because I love anything where you can give somebody the prompt and two people will come to completely different conclusions. Because we hopped on a call to talk about this show and you and I had completely different ideas of what we were looking at. So, yeah, Derek, maybe you were a little more fixated on like, OK, well, does the hype, does the win total, does the conversation match what I think about this team? And I really looked at it as just the handful of teams where I'm like, what the hell are you doing? Like, what has this offseason been? How do you see yourselves?

10:11Derrik Klassen: And I don't think there's a team that you can start with before we talk about the Miami Dolphins. Right. And I'm sorry to Dolphins fans. I bet you feel like you're a little bit of a punching bag right now. And I'll be clear before we get into this, Derek, like the Dolphins can be a pretty good team. That's not what I'm saying when I say that I'm confused by who they are. They can be a pretty good team. This could be a playoff team. But I don't know. Do you think I'm crazy if I just feel like very little they've done this entire offseason makes a ton of sense? Like, I just don't see the cohesion.

10:45Dave Helman: I really struggle with it too they are definitely a team where and I think the Dolphins are such a perfect example for this exercise because when you look at the way they've put their roster together and the way they've really indexed to the way that the offense is built and some of their best players are a little bit older like Tyreek Hill and stuff like that it's like okay you you kind of need this to work this year like they've already invested into a Tungabailoa we kind of know what Mike McDaniel's offense is supposed to be at this point so you have a good idea of who they are and they've invested a lot of money into this version of the team so you kind of got to win this year but then you look at certain parts of the roster and it's like okay your left tackle just retired so you're going to have to put in effectively a rookie in Patrick Paul who's now going to be your left tackle you over leverage a ton of resources to go get a guard in the draft which like you needed interior players but you also needed more draft picks because you're losing a lot of bodies on defense and then you look at their secondary and I know they swap out Jalen Ramsey for Minka Fitzpatrick.

11:40Dave Helman: They get it a little bit a little bit younger. That's that's all fine. But like this secondary is still very bad. And if you're trying to convince yourself that you're going to be this team that can, you know, win 10, 11 games, get to the playoffs and really try to give it one more run in the playoffs the way that they've kind of struggled to the last couple of years. I don't see how you square those ambitions with what this secondary and really their defensive front are.

12:06Derrik Klassen: And really, your first point is the one that I keep coming back to. And it's not X's and O's. It's got nothing to do with how good we think the Dolphins can be. But I'll never forget, man. It's burned in my brain. Sunday night football, last week of the season, Vikings are playing the Lions. It's this big game. The whole NFL world is focused on it. and Stephen Ross, the owner of the Dolphins, puts out a statement basically saying like, we're going to ride with Mike McDaniel and Chris Greer, which like, guess what? If you need a statement, it's not good. Like if you need to let the masses know that you're not going to make a change, that is the first sign of a problem.

12:47Derrik Klassen: Cause like if, if everything was really great, then it's just status quo. Maybe a few days later you get asked about it and you're like, well, no, like, why would we make a change? I like Chris and Mike. To make a statement is a whole different thing. And the quote in the statement even said, we're sticking with Chris and Mike. However, continuity in leadership is not to be confused that with acceptance that the status quo is good enough. So on the last night of the season, Stephen Ross said what we just saw wasn't enough. And by the way, the Dolphins were playing for a playoff spot on the final day of the season.

13:27Derrik Klassen: They were technically alive.

13:29Dave Helman: I'm so glad you said that because we spent the entire like all of November and December doing this with the Bengals, right? Where they're like, we're like, oh, they can fight for the playoffs. They can get in. They've got this high powered offense. The same was true of the Dolphins. It's just nobody gave a shit about the Dolphins because I don't know, maybe we just don't think, you know, two is as good as Joe Burrow, whatever it was like, we just didn't care about the Dolphins, but they actually had better chances to make the playoffs than the Bengals pretty much the entire season.

13:54Derrik Klassen: I think the problem is that the Dolphins biffed it every single time they had a chance. Like Tua came back and I remember they lost to Arizona in like a really fun game, like when he first came back and they got their asses kicked by Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Like every time they had a marquee chance to be like, look, we're still good. We got Tua. We can score 40 points. They just biffed it. And I think that's why people didn't care by the end. But yeah, so eight and nine playing for a playoff spot to a missus a huge chunk of the season. You have all the reason in the world to just sort of call this a mulligan and say, like, yeah, we're we're good.

14:32Derrik Klassen: We're going to roll forward. but the owner is saying like, this wasn't good enough. And I need to make that clear to the public. And I just, that is the first sign of a problem for me. Cause when the owner feels that way, it's almost like, do I think Mike McDaniel deserves to be fired for what he's done so far? No, not at all. But if that's where we are with the owner, it makes me think like, ah, would you be better off just cleaning house? And you know, y 'all did a bunch of trades. Y 'all signed all these contracts, you went all in and it didn't work. And is it time to consider a pivot? And they didn't do it, but the team didn't get better.

15:10Derrik Klassen: I mean, Teron Armstead retires. Calais Campbell leaves for Arizona. We know about the Ramsey trade and the John Smith trade, which by the way,

15:19Dave Helman: John was Darren Waller to replace him as like,

15:21Derrik Klassen: signing Darren Waller out of retirement, which like, it's, it's not as if Darren Waller was lighting the world on fire when he retired, by the way. I mean, Johnnie Smith was the best thing going for that offense down the second half of that season. I know, you know, I don't think there's any love lost between the Dolphins and Javon Holland. So I'm not trying to say that they're losing sleep over that, but that's still a talented player that walked out your door. Minka Fitzpatrick offsets that or honestly is probably an improvement. But the cornerback room, as you said, still very terrifying. Don't love what I'm seeing there.

15:58Derrik Klassen: Maybe you could go out and get a vet. I laughed because Asante Samuel Jr. is still sitting out on the open market. But Asante Samuel Sr. was on a podcast like last week calling Mike McDaniel a pushover and Chris Greer spineless. So I'm like, all right, maybe Asante Samuel Jr. is not going to Miami after all. So they're not a bad team. And if two is healthy, they'll be fun. And I do think we do this with receivers a lot, I think, where there are so many good receivers that if you if you have any kind of setback, you just get left by the wayside. And that's what's happening to Tyreek Hill. I'm sure the end of Tyreek Hill's prime is coming at some point, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's got one more really impressive season in him.

16:46Derrik Klassen: He was battling injuries last year. So it's not to say the Dolphins can't be a good team, but if eight and nine and missing the playoffs was enough to put everybody on notice, then what does this year need to be? To me, you got to make the playoffs. Ideally you would win the division. I don't see that happening. And, and obviously, you know, the fact that the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game since 2000 hangs over this franchise. Do I see this being the year that that changes? Not really. So I'm just confused. because you kept everybody. But based on what I'm seeing, the standard seems like it's going to be very hard to meet.

17:23Derrik Klassen: So that's my spiel about the Dolphins. I just find them very frustrating because they are at, the expectation seems to be that they're like a 10 or 11 win team, and I'm just not convinced.

17:36Dave Helman: Yeah, they're running it back, but they're kind of putting everyone on notice that they're running it back, but also didn't make the team better. So they're they again, they're perfect example of why this exercise even exists.

17:47Derrik Klassen: It reminds me a lot of last year's Cowboys, to be honest with you, where you're just like, OK, you didn't give the coach a new deal and you kind of intimated that he might be in trouble. But the team's not better. So what are we doing? I don't know. Like I said, will I be shocked if Tua throws for 4000 yards? Not at all. But I still think the messaging this year is very strange.

18:08Dave Helman: Yeah, there that that team is on thin ice a little bit. All right. That so that like you said at the top, I think we both approached this from a little bit of a different angle. You took some more of your teams from I don't really know who you are or where you're going. And my angle was more I kind of was looking at some of these win totals going into the season. And I was like, I either think that's crazy or I look at the win total and I'm like, that just doesn't even help me frame how I think about this team. And the one I want to start with for that is actually the New England Patriots. Dave, do you know what their win total over under is this year?

18:41Derrik Klassen: I do because we talked about it, but I'm going to I'm going to feign ignorance because it blew my mind when you said it.

18:47Dave Helman: It blew my mind to blow the listeners minds. It's seven and a half wins, which is higher than teams like the Jaguars and the Raiders, who I think have made some changes that we all appreciate. And why I think this was so confusing for me to look at is like, OK, there is stuff to get excited about from like a name brand perspective. Drake May, I think, is an exciting young quarterback. Mike Vrabel, I think we all believe is a good coach and probably going to be better than Gerard Mayo. And then they have a handful of other stars like Christian Barmore is very good. Christian Gonzalez is very good.

19:20Dave Helman: I think, you know, the name brand of Stefan Diggs is probably more appealing than the actual player. And that's kind of plays into this. And that's kind of what I mean. We're like Stefan Diggs. OK, I get it. We all remember what he was at his peak with Buffalo and stuff like that. But he's a 32 year old receiver coming off of a kind of OK season and coming off of an ACL tear like that just is a kind of scary profile for a guy you expect to be your wide receiver one. And then a lot of the other additions they made on offense around Drake May are rookies. It's Kyle Williams in the draft. It's Travion Henderson in the draft.

19:51Dave Helman: It's Will Campbell in the draft. And these are, you know, Dave, I'm sure you like some of these players, too, but they're rookies like at some point you can only expect so much. and then on the defensive side obviously everything completely cratered last year with Gerard Mayo and him taking over some of the play calling responsibilities you know with Belichick gone and stuff and I think there's some expectation that Vrabel is going to fix that but Vrabel is not a play caller like that's not what he does it's not what he did in Tennessee and even when he was calling plays in Houston those defenses were worse than when Romeo Cornell was calling them at the time so it's just like I get some of the excitement with Drake May and he bring in the new coach Mike but I still look at the roster and I'm like, how much of a miracle fixture do they think the head coach and the quarterback can really be in year one?

20:35Derrik Klassen: Let me throw this take out there without opening a can of worms. Cause it's a whole, this is a whole different conversation, but this feels like it could be a by-product of the, the normalizing and the widespread access of gambling and the effect that it has. Because like 10 years ago, So sickos like us and sickos that listen to the athletic football show who are like really dialed in, they're the only ones paying attention to this Patriots team. And they're like, oh, like if I can get that, like, let's say if I told you that the over under was, let's say, six and a half would like would you be in on that or do you need it to be lower?

21:15Dave Helman: At six and a half, I can start to take. And that's perfect because if they get over six and a half, you're not necessarily saying they're a playoff team. But at seven and a half, you're kind of implying they should be a playoff team if they get over.

21:25Derrik Klassen: So I can't I can't back this up. This is recklessly speculating. But like 10 years ago, maybe this over under is six and a half because only the sickos are making the effort to bet and only the sickos are paying attention to it. And us, you and I and people who pay attention to it are like, oh, Patriots at six and a half is a tasty treat. Like, I really like what's going on with Drake May and all this other stuff. But now it is just a much more widespread thing. And if you put the Patriots out there at six and a half, everybody's jumping all over that because it's as easy as opening your phone and putting$10 down on a bet.

22:02Derrik Klassen: And so I think lines get inflated. And I definitely think that's what's happening here because I think of myself as a Patriots enthusiast, just like you. Like, I love Drake May. I love the additions that they've made. Like the rookie class looks so much fun. I like the defensive additions that they made. Like Robert Spillane is one of my favorite, like unheralded players in the league. Carlton Davis is a psycho. He's a crazy person. He's great. Carlton Davis is really underrated for what he does. Like the combo of Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez is a lot of fun. Mike Vrabel is a good coach who knows how to win on the margins and make the most of his talent.

22:41Derrik Klassen: There's a lot to like. But when you tell me that I've got to like a more than seven wins, like now we're saying, oh, so all these rookies are going to be great. None of these veterans are going to have significant injuries. Drake may is he's just he's going to lie. He's going to take the next step and just kick ass right away. And it's all going to be great. And the Patriots are going to win nine games. And like that's definitely a step too far for me. Like I see the Patriots as a plucky team that wins like seven games. That would be my guess. And maybe they can do more than that. But that's how I feel about them.

23:15Dave Helman: That's exactly how I feel about them. And I thought that was going to be like coming into this offseason. I thought that was going to be me feeling like kind of optimistic about who they are. But now I look at the seven and a half win total and I'm like, if I'm going to be like objectively optimistic, you know, per the betting odds and stuff, I have to almost pick them as a playoff team. I think I'm good on that. Like, I don't know, man. It just seems it's hard to square with like how I how enthusiastic I thought I was a month ago compared to like objectively how enthusiastic I would actually have to be about them in a division where I'm just writing off the possibility of them winning the division.

23:50Derrik Klassen: Then I just I can't get behind that, you know, like if they played in the AFC South, maybe I'd be banging this drum a little bit harder, but they don't. They play with Buffalo and barring something terrible. Buffalo is going to win this division again. So that that's where I start that conversation. And that immediately puts a cap on them for me. But yeah, maybe the better way to say it. And this is a good thing, by the way. I don't want to sound bummed out by it. But like the NFL is more popular than it's ever been. And there are more people paying attention to shit like the Patriots over under than ever before.

24:28Derrik Klassen: And so I think it's I think it's harder than ever to to like find wins that way, because I'm not going to talk about them. But I think the Arizona Cardinals fall in this same boat. The Arizona Cardinals, the over under I looked at was like eight and a half wins. And I'm like, holy crap, guys, you're telling me I got to think the Cardinals are a nine win team to to believe in them. Like that's I like the Cardinals. But like you're like we're saying, like maybe that's a step too far.

24:57Dave Helman: And kind of to the betting thing with the Patriots specifically, doesn't it feel like the the thing that you want to bet on is like this is going to be the rookie or the young quarterback who's going to take the year to leap into being the Justin Herbert, the Joe Burrow, the whatever it is. And so I get why we want to do that with Drake May. I mean, shit, I want to do that with Drake May, but not like put money on them to win eight games with Drake. There are six of those guys, by the way.

25:22Derrik Klassen: That's the other problem.

25:23Dave Helman: Exactly.

25:23Derrik Klassen: There are six NFL cities who all think that their guy is about to take over the league in year two. Hopefully they're all right, but the odds say maybe not.

25:33Dave Helman: Yeah, the odds say some of those guys are not going to be who you want them to be, at least not in year two. Maybe by, you know, end of the rookie contract, all that stuff. But sometimes this stuff does not happen as easy as it does for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and those guys. All right. We are we're wrapped up with the Patriots. Before we get to our handful of other teams, we're going to take a quick break. Football season has arrived, and with the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card, you earn an unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase, including at the stadium or at home watching on a brand new TV.

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27:37Dave Helman: All right, we're out of the break. Dave, who's your next team that you just, this offseason can't quite get a get a good feel for.

27:45Derrik Klassen: I promise I do have some under the radar takes coming, but I'm just I'm going to hammer the other one that's been pissing me off all year. And again, I'll apologize to these fans ahead of time because I'm sure they've been catching hell. But Derek, what are the what are the Cincinnati Bengals doing, man? Like what? What exactly? what exactly do the Cincinnati Bengals want to be? Like, are you a super bowl contender that employs a top five NFL MVP caliber quarterback and just paid a small nation's GDP to bring back his supporting cast? I mean, we Jamar T I don't think Gisicki gets mentioned enough.

28:24Derrik Klassen: I know he's not on that level, but like he had a nice year in that offense. I think that's a big spot. Top 100 picket guard. Like on one hand, they look like they're loading up. They look like they know that they have personnel that could get them to a Super Bowl and they're acting like it. And then on the other side, I mean, we don't need to rehash it, but we know what they're doing on the defensive side of the ball. And let me just say this. I don't actually care if they want to pay Trey Hendrickson. I don't really care. I can see the argument for and against. Trey Hendrickson is north of 30.

29:00Derrik Klassen: He's had back-to-back 17.5 sacks season. So what are the odds that that production continues? And especially as he gets older, like I understand the concerns of paying Trey Henderson. I think it's fair to say he's a wonderful player. He's probably not on that tippy top tier. Like he just doesn't have the freakish athleticism of a Miles Garrett. He's not as young as Micah Parsons. I understand it. So trade him then. Trey Hendrickson told you at the Super Bowl that he wanted to be traded if he couldn't get a deal. You had like three months to figure something out. And I get it. The return's probably not going to be what you would prefer for a 30 year old end who needs a new deal.

29:44Derrik Klassen: But I don't know. Deal with it. Do it like do something, pay him or trade him. But instead, you're doing this dance again like you did with Jamar and T where we're going into training camp. He's not going to show up. How long is it going to drag out? How much practice time is he going to miss? How good is his conditioning going to be? How long is it going to take for him to be ready to play 11 on 11 football? Cause that's not the same thing as working out and being in shape. And Oh, by the way, the guy that you selected to be his eventual replacements doing the same thing he's sitting out cause you don't want to guarantee him his money either.

30:23Derrik Klassen: And by the way, He might be a wonderful player, but he's like the rawest prospect of the major pass rushers. Like if James Pierce Jr., who had a double digit sack season in the SEC, was the guy holding out, I would at least be like, all right, well, that sucks, but I have a better idea of what he is. Like Shamar Stewart needs all the reps he can get, and he's already missed a month. So I'm at a loss because, again, if you wanted to trade Trey and get a pick for him and maybe you have an extra second round pick or an extra third round pick, whatever it is, either way, that's another rookie drafted highly who could be coming in to help you supplement your offense.

31:09Derrik Klassen: Because let's not get it twisted. The Bengals' defense isn't going to be the reason why they get to a Super Bowl. I at this point I would rather have two rookies that I could just throw into the mix than maybe not get Trey Hendrickson until like September 10th I just I hate I hate the the mixed messaging of it all like are we pushing to win a Super Bowl and bad decisions be damned or are we trying to get younger and cheaper which like that is that's admirable too but we we can't be trying to do both

31:42Dave Helman: things at the same time it's maddening and and this goes back to an issue that really the Zach Taylor Bengals have had for a long time it's like they and I don't necessarily think this is his fault some of this has been like Joe Burrow's had injury issues early in the season and all that stuff but they don't win a lot of games in September and so now if you're I think the offense will be fine this year right like Joe Burrow's going into the offseason healthy you've got your receivers paid nobody's holding out now like the offense should be better in September than it has been typically. But if Trey Hendrickson is either not going to play to start the season or not going to be, you know, acclimated, like you said, because he's not practicing as much.

32:17Dave Helman: And then the same is true of Shamar Stewart, who also is a rookie and one of the more raw prospects. Then you're leaving your pass rush to be like year five of Joseph Asai, who hasn't really been a whole lot for them. You're hoping that Miles Murphy finally takes the step. Cam Sample, who really is more of like a run defender than a guy who is a pass rusher. And so you're looking at a September defense that is going to have no pass rush and a secondary that. I mean, it's a lot of young guys that you're hoping can take the step like Dax Hill was nice last year, but obviously gets hurt and we don't know how well he's going to come back.

32:49Dave Helman: And then you've got a younger player like Demetrius Knight at linebacker. Like there's just there's a chance that even for as bad as the defense was last year, that if Hendrickson and Shamar Stewart are playing, it's even worse. And I know they're trying to sell us that. oh, Luana Remo's defense was too complicated for the young guys and and we're going to bring in alcohol. I'm sorry, man. This is the NFL. Figure it out. Like, I just don't buy that line of thinking that like, oh, we're going to simplify the defense and this college coach is going to make it easier for the young guys. Like, I just don't.

33:22Dave Helman: Like, that's a story that sounds nice on paper. And then you get to October and you're like, oh, these guys just the roster just still isn't good enough. And that's the biggest issue. So I just for a team that, like you said, clearly knows that they have an elite quarterback, knows that they have two special pieces around him that he loves playing with. You would think that they have clear aspirations of being a Super Bowl team, but they just have never operated that way. And they very clearly aren't this offseason.

33:48Derrik Klassen: And I mean, unfortunately, again, there are conversations that go beyond football. I mean, like, I mean, you deal with the ownership hand that you're dealt. And that's, I mean, the Brown family is notorious for this. I think it's funny because, And I mean, credit to them. They chased off Carson Palmer by being this way. Andrew Whitworth has talked extensively about his journey with this organization. They did recognize what they had in Joe, and they paid him, and they've committed to making him happy. I mean, he got everything he wanted this offseason. I mean, I'm sure he wants Trey back, too, but he got his receivers.

34:24Derrik Klassen: He got his tight end. They drafted an offensive lineman. They've moved heaven and earth to make the offensive line good. It hasn't always worked out, but they've tried. But I want to talk to them and be like, hey, if you're serious about this, it's got to be the whole roster. It's got to be all the time. You don't get to sit back because you've made Joe Burrow happy. I mean, not if you really are serious about winning this thing. And that's kind of what it feels like where it's like, man, we just gave all this money to the offense. What do you want us to do? And I'm like, I want you to either pay the end or, like I said, If you want to pivot into a different strategy, that's fine.

35:02Derrik Klassen: But do it. You just you got to commit to a vision. I can't be going into training camp with the Bengals every year wondering when somebody important is going to show up. It's very rarely is it a recipe for success.

35:14Dave Helman: I feel like they have like two years max of them operating this way before Joe Burrow like fully loses his mind. And to be clear, he should. Like you're one of the best quarterbacks in the league. You should have a team around you that is operating the way that, you know, Josh Allen's bills have operated. Lamar Jackson with the Ravens, you know, all these other teams. Obviously, Jalen Hurts with the Eagles, the way that that team operates and tries to maximize their windows. Like the fact that he doesn't hasn't quite gotten that is extremely frustrating. So they are. If we end up in a spot next year where the Bengals are again fighting to be eight, nine, nine and eight, despite scoring 32 points a game, I don't think either of us are going to be surprised.

35:53Derrik Klassen: I won't be, but I also, I won't be surprised if just by, like, the sheer firepower of what they can do. Like, you know, I would, it's early, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals made the playoffs. Like, I think they can get over that hump. I mean, they almost did it after everything that went wrong. So that's the frustrating thing. Again, like I'm certainly not saying this is a bad team, but I just the I need to understand the vision a little bit more than what we're seeing from them right now.

36:23Dave Helman: It's hard to square the ceiling of the offense with the ceiling of like the team as a whole. I think that's why they're a team that is like very frustrating. So, yeah, the Bengals, hopefully they don't end up in quite as a weird. So, I mean, maybe if they win that Washington game last year, they'd have been in the playoffs. But either way, bizarre team, bizarre operation. We're going to move on to my next one. Another AFC quarterback who I think has kind of been in hell in a different way for the last handful of years. And that to me is the Jacksonville Jaguars are a very weird team for me to get a handle on.

36:55And part of it is like, I love Trevor Lawrence.

36:59Dave Helman: I've said that on this show. I think he's a really good player and I think he's better than a lot of people give him credit for. A lot of circumstantial stuff has not gone his way. And there are parts of me that want to be excited for the stuff around him. like obviously Brian Thomas Jr. was immediately like a top 10 receiver like in the way that we talk about Jaden Daniels as a superstar quarterback immediately for a rookie like Brian Thomas Jr. did that as a receiver like he was awesome last year and so you have that you draft Travis Hunter so in theory you kind of have what the Bengals are doing right where you've got these two just awesome vertical receivers we can push the ball down the field and then in theory you've got Liam Cohen who's this really nice play caller who's going to come in but also he's really only ever done it for one year at the NFL level.

37:40Dave Helman: And now he's going to be a head coach. He also took that job under really weird circumstances with him not, you know, not answering the phone from the Bucs and stuff like that. So you've got this just whole bizarre set of circumstances. And then even when you consider his offense, so much of what they did, you know, we just talked about the Bucs at the top of the show and all the stuff they were doing. Well, that was like a top five offensive line in the league last year, Tristan Wirfs included. This Jaguars unit, all they did to supplement their offensive line this year was sign backups. They signed Robert Hainsey and Patrick McCary, who like they might be functional, but it's not the same as like drafting a Graham Barton in the first round the way the Bucs did last year.

38:15Dave Helman: And so like and then that doesn't even get to the defense, which the defense, obviously, they were way worse than they should have been last year. Right. And so there's part of me that is like, OK, well, maybe this year they can they can play a little bit more to their level. And I think last year they were playing below their level. But then I think about it more. What is their level like? They have probably three good players right like i think trayvon walker is good i think josh heinz allen is good okay i think

38:41Derrik Klassen: the three players derrick are really good they're really good but some of the other players are really bad i don't know about the other guys that's the problem exactly and so that makes them

38:53Dave Helman: like it gets into like you know we've done this with the chargers defense like three four years ago where it's like okay the three best players are awesome the other players are not good enough where does that actually land them that's kind of how i feel about the jaguars defense so they've just got all these factors where you know again you look at the offense the three best players are awesome and I believe in them the defense the three best players are awesome I believe in them what is the floor for the rest of the players I don't know so like this could be a team like it could crater again and they win six games and they look bad this could also be the 10 win wild card team and I just I can't get a feel for where I actually land on it I have a very

39:29Derrik Klassen: toxic relationship with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh, you and me both, brother. I keep, I think, I think a lot of people do because like there's a lot to like on paper. Yeah.

39:39Dave Helman: It's like they're the idiot version of the Chargers for us. Like the idiot cousin version of like everyone in the media. We love to do every year. Oh, the Chargers, man. They're going to be good. They're going to win 11 games. And we also do this with the Jaguars. It's just like a slight tick lower.

39:54Derrik Klassen: We just, it's a long off season. We just have too much time to sit and think about all the crazy stuff that could happen. But yeah, it's like a toxic boyfriend or girlfriend where you're just waiting on them to change. Or they get a new job and you're like, this is the one. This time it'll be different. And it's never different. But here I am again. I hesitate to say I believe, but I'm excited about this team. I mean, all the pieces, not all, a lot of the pieces you just mentioned are very fun. I mean, I have not given up on Trevor Lawrence. I think the flashes he's shown are way too exciting to write off.

40:32Derrik Klassen: And I think, look, I get it. He has fallen so, so short of the amount of hype that was put on him. He's still a really good player. Like, he's still, he's got, he's so fun to watch. He's willing to try stuff. He can make insane throws. He never gets the amount of credit he deserves for his athleticism. he can I mean he can do all of that very fun mech warrior quarterback stuff I mean I don't want to compare him to any of the really good ones but he can do that stuff like he can we've seen it so I refuse to give up on that even if he has been disappointing and then yeah BTJ who by the way Trevor and BTJ didn't even get a full season together Travis Hunter is very exciting um yeah dude, BTJ did a lot of that with Mac Jones.

41:20Derrik Klassen: Like that, I think that's getting glossed over by a lot of people too. So there's so much to like there. And then, you know, outside of like, okay, obviously Houston has a better set of ends than, than Jacksonville. I'm sure there's some other ones I'm not thinking of, but like not very many teams have a better pair of ends than Josh Heinz Allen and Trayvon Walker. Like that is a nice place to start. Tyson Campbell, really good cornerback. And I know he's he's getting long in the tooth. Like I do worry about investing in a player of his age. But Jordan Lewis has been a super underrated nickel for quite a long time at this point.

42:00Derrik Klassen: I mean, he is a phenomenal player. He was great last year on a on a Dallas team that obviously was going nowhere. So I think that is a piece that that flies under the radar. Like I said, I think if he's not 30, he's close to it. So you do kind of want to worry about diminishing returns. But his level of play the last two years has been outstanding. So there's a lot here to like. And the division is winnable. And like nobody in that division should feel like they've got it on lock. So there are so many reasons to be like, yeah, man, the Jags could really sneak up on people. And they did it for the briefest window of time in 2023.

42:37Derrik Klassen: they did it and it's been all downhill ever since. So I'm doing my best not to fall for it a third straight year. But I don't know. By the time we get to September, I might talk myself into it again.

42:50Dave Helman: I think that's why I can't get a handle on it is I want to buy in so much. And so there's another part of my brain that's like, hey, man, you did this before. Do you really want to do it again? So I'm trying to poke all the holes in it. But I do think in like my heart of hearts, I really do want to buy it, but there is enough that gives me legitimate pause.

43:08Derrik Klassen: I mean, I will say you mentioned it and I just kind of glossed over it. I mean, that offensive line shouldn't have anybody excited. It just shouldn't. And Liam Cohen, we mentioned the Bucs screen game last year. That was his thing. So, you know, maybe he's a good enough play caller and schemer to like work around that, but we have not seen it at this stop and we only saw it for one year with the Bucs. So I'm not ready to hang my hat on that and I do think again I mean this is a division where you've got to you got to play Houston twice a year you got to deal with the Neil Hunter and Will Anderson like and

43:42Dave Helman: have fun and even the rest of that division has some good fronts right like uh the Colts have I think like Tulatu is going to take a step obviously they have DeForest Buckner um and then the Titans like you know off the edge don't have a whole lot but Jeffrey Simmonds and Tavandra Sweat are a handful and especially if the Jaguars interior is going to be the biggest issue those guys I think are going to be able to cause some havoc. So it's like that's the other complication, right? It's like the one hole, not the one hole I have with the roster, but probably my biggest concern is that interior offensive line.

44:12Dave Helman: And you look at some of the fronts in the division is like, oh, man, they might have some games where Trevor Lawrence is just getting smacked.

44:20Derrik Klassen: I until further notice, I think it's Trevor Lawrence's destiny to just get beat to shit, honestly. Like, I mean, between like his his size and his overall pick. Like, I mean, more or less. Yeah, I mean, I'm trying to think of I'm sure there's somebody whose offensive line got it together. But like we mentioned we mentioned Joe Burrow's problems like that's been an issue in Cincinnati. And some of this is the quarterback, right? Like Joe's the same way where he's he's going to buy time for as long as he can. Like Trevor Lawrence is huge and athletic. Like he's going to extend plays and take hits because of that.

44:54Derrik Klassen: But the Jags also aren't doing him a ton of favors either.

44:58Dave Helman: Yeah, they kind of let that happen. All right, that's enough. I had to get in my Jaguars spiel every now and then, every couple of weeks of this offseason. So that's enough of the Jaguars. Dave, who do you got next year?

45:11Derrik Klassen: Well, let's just keep it in the division because I want to talk. And I don't know. You tell me. I think this is a little bit of a spicy take because they've won the division two years in a row. I think most people would consider them the favorites to do it again. But I'm a little confused by what's going on with the Houston Texans. So let's talk about it. Because basically, Derek, it comes down to this for me. This is year three for CJ Stroud. It's an important year. I mean, obviously you want him to keep growing and keep getting better. You want him to play better than the whole offense did last season.

45:45Derrik Klassen: I certainly don't want to put all of that on him. But you want it to look better. And it needs to look better because this is the last year that he's guaranteed to be cheap. You're eligible for a contract extension after year three. Now, the Texans don't have to extend him right away, but they probably should. Like, what else do you need to see from CJ Stroud? Like, clearly, he is a franchise quarterback. He is a guy worth building around. He is young. I don't even know if he's 24 yet. Like, he's so good at such a young age. No, he's not 24 yet. It's insane. That's crazy. It's insane. So you should extend him this offseason, barring something absolutely terrible.

46:24Derrik Klassen: He should get an extension and then the advantage of the chief quarterback starts to go away. So year three is ideally when your team, the credit card is maxed out. You've got all this stuff. You got all these guys playing for you. And don't get me wrong. Obviously, the Texans extended Derek Stingley. Like they've signed some high price free agents. I'm not saying they haven't done anything. but does this team look to you like a team that's like maxed out with a super roster with their young quarterback in his last year before he's eligible for an extension it doesn't

46:59Dave Helman: look like that to me no and what's funny is I I think last year they thought was the year that

47:04Derrik Klassen: they wanted to do that where they did this last year right right and now they're they're paying

47:09Dave Helman: for it because it didn't work out and what's funny is you know I think we all conceive of like the Texans as being this massive disappointment compared to Stroud's rookie year they won the same amount of games and won the division I just think we all thought they could win 13 games and I think that actually is why they're tough to get a grip on I think the way that you're saying is like because we love CJ Stroud because we think D 'Amico Rhines is a good head coach and the defense is really good we all have this idea that their ceiling can be like 13 wins but then to your point you look at the offensive roster this year they scrapped their entire offensive line which like fair it wasn't a very good offensive line last year um and obviously they fire the the play caller which again i think had some some struggles last year um they completely reworked the receiver room with like obviously they let digs go they bring in christian kirk they bring in a bunch of rookies but there's so much change in and around the offense that it's hard to actually sell yourself that they can get to the ceiling right because like you just there's nothing other than cj stroud himself there's almost nothing that and obviously nico collins he's an incredible player.

48:12Dave Helman: But outside of those two, there's nothing about the offense that you can hold on to firmly and be like, this will be a top 10 offense. But in order for them to win, you know, 12, 13 games, you kind of need them to be a top 10 offense. And it's it's nothing they did this offseason makes you believe that they're going to get there immediately.

48:30Derrik Klassen: It is it is a nice ace up their sleeve that I mean, this defense should be a wrecking crew like I mean, it should be it should be amazing. And that's awesome. Like you can lean on them. They can help you, you know, get to the finish line. But if we're talking about real deal Super Bowl contenders, I want a little bit more from my offense. And I mean, let's let's let's talk about the offensive line for a minute because I get it. It was bad. Right. And so gutting it is not a bad thing. Right. Like getting rid of Shaq Mason. Great. Getting getting Chauncey Gardner Johnson for Kenyon Green is a great bit of business.

49:06Derrik Klassen: Like you. Yes, that's a very good.

49:08Dave Helman: Yeah.

49:09Derrik Klassen: You'll probably be moving on from Chauncey in a year or two the way everybody else has, but like he is a very good player to have and to get him for a first round pick that didn't work out and style fit, right?

49:20Dave Helman: Like they are a defense of psychopaths and he is like the chatterbox. I'm going to hit somebody safety in the league. It's perfect.

49:27Derrik Klassen: He's like, it's going to be fantastic, at least for a season or two. Like I said, Chauncey Gardner Johnson has very rarely stayed on a roster for more than a year or two, but he's been good when he's been there. Like that's, that's his whole thing. So I love that. My thing is, and look, I get it. Clearly the Texans traded Laramie Tunsil because they wanted a change of culture in their offensive line room. Like that's been widely suggested. People have talked about it. It's not because Laramie Tunsil is not a good player. They clearly wanted a new, a new voice and a new top dog in their own line room.

50:01Derrik Klassen: My thing is that sounds awesome in the off season when you're like, well, it's the same thing. Like when you change an offensive coordinator, like, oh, we just, or a defensive coordinator, we needed to get simpler. It was too hard. Our players were thinking too much. That all sounds great in the off season when nothing's happening, but Laramie Tunsell in what most people would call a down year allowed two sacks and 19 pressures. cam robinson oh yeah cam robinson who is his replacement allowed 52 pressures and seven sacks and i mean cam robinson is is a useful left tackle but this is this is a downgrade like even if he's even if he's on the downside of his prime even if he's getting older laramie tunsel at worst is a top 10 tackle and he could still play better than that you know like i know some of the young guys that we've you know we were talking about Tristan Wirfs earlier some of the young guys have maybe passed him but you're still talking about one of the better left tackles in football and I just I think it sounds fun that you need a new voice in the offseason and then when CJ Stroud's getting rocked by Josh Hines Allen four times in a game you're like oh maybe we bit off more than

51:13Dave Helman: we can chew here and and that's the thing with the Laramie Tunsil trade it's like his worst year of his career that was last year and he was like what the ninth best less tackle in the league probably still and part of the reason he was even that low was all like the pre-snap penalties and stuff well that i think you could convince me and i think the texans have tried to convince themselves that this was just like a weird culture thing with like the way that the offensive line was set up and all that stuff and like laramie tunsell probably will just not commit that many penalties next year uh with washington and he'll probably be the fourth or fifth best tackle in the league again like that is more likely than him i think continuing to decline whereas you look at Cam Robinson I think there's this idea that because Cam Robinson stepped in for Christian Daris all last year in the Vikings offense continued to be good and he was supposed to be the stopgap left you know band-aid option for them that he can be like this this competent tackle I think like rookies aside he might end up being the worst left tackle in the league and I don't think the Texans are ready for that reality like I don't think they're gonna understand how bad going from good, but frustrating Larry me Tunsil to what cam Robinson is going to be for them.

52:20Derrik Klassen: It is funny. Cause I remember vividly, I think Darisaw got hurt. I think he got hurt in that Thursday night game against the Rams maybe. Yeah. And you're like, you're like, Oh my God. And we were all having so much fun watching the Vikings and we were like, Oh no, like, is the ride over? And then cam Robinson played well enough that the ride wasn't over. And we like, OK, Cam Robinson, let's go, dude. And then you got to the playoffs in the end of the season and you were like, ah, yeah.

52:48Dave Helman: Like, that's right. That's why the Jaguars who don't have a good offensive line let you go in the first foot. That's that's the other thing with offensive line guys is like or really this applies to like any position group, right? Like if a position group on a team isn't good and then that team is willing to trade away one of those players, the player that you acquired is probably not that useful for you. And that's kind of where I where I arrived with Cam Robinson.

53:12Derrik Klassen: I at the end of the day and like I don't know Laramie Tunsil. I clearly I've never been in the Texans O-line room. So maybe maybe it's like way worse than what I thought. But like nine times out of 10, I'd rather deal with a headache of a player who kicks ass and just, hey, yes, that's going to be part of our journey this year is we're going to have to manage Laramie, but he's going to keep CJ Stroud upright way better than the alternative. and the Texans disagreed with my idea. And so now we'll see how this goes. I will say, I want to say, you can't blame them for what happened with their receiver court.

53:48Derrik Klassen: That's just shitty luck, right? Like Stefan Diggs tears his ACL. Tank Dell has this gnarly injury. I honestly think given the circumstances, they've done a decent job of rebuilding it. Like Christian Kirk and Jaden Higgins with John Mechie still hanging around in the background And obviously Nico Collins, like considering everything that went wrong, they're in a pretty good spot. But I'd rather have Laramie Tunsil and and not have the extra third round pick. Like, that's just how I feel.

54:20Dave Helman: That's I couldn't agree more. And again, even if those players end up being good, you got two rookies that are you bringing in at receiver. That's just maybe it won't happen until year two or year three for them. So, again, they're weird team to get a handle on because we feel like they should be elite. but maybe what they've done on offense, maybe they're not going to get there.

54:37Derrik Klassen: Fortunately, I mean, their defense mean their defense should mean that the offense's bar isn't that hard to clear. Right. But also, like, I don't want to I don't want to watch C.J. Stroud eke out 20 points a game. I don't want to watch C.J.

54:52Dave Helman: Stroud with the 19th best offense. I want to see fireworks. I want that Browns game again.

54:56Derrik Klassen: I want to tune in and watch C.J. Stroud just bomb away. I'm not trying to see them gut out 19 to 17 wins. It sounds awful.

55:04Dave Helman: Yeah, it sounds not fun. So maybe these receivers work out. Maybe Nick Cayley fixes the offensive line. But I think until we get proof of concept, we're going to have to see. All right, before we get to the next team, we're going to take another quick break here.

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56:39Dave Helman: All right, we are back at it. Talking about, again, some teams that, you know, we just can't quite get a feel for this offseason. I'm going to go with a team that I expect to be good. It's a matter of how good. And to me, that is the Detroit Lions. And they've. oh okay I want to hear this because I'm I'm even even with like the stuff that they've lost like

57:02Derrik Klassen: I'm just penciling the lions in at the top so I want to hear this see I just think there's so

57:08Dave Helman: many like I believe in the floor for this team right like I think Dan Campbell is top five NFL head coach right now I think the way that he sees the game the way that he gets this team to play hard the way that he handles fourth downs and and the red zone and all that stuff I think is truly special like he really has a great mind for this stuff and I think Jared Goff while he's not one of the elite tippy top quarterbacks he is very obviously like a pro bowl caliber quarterback especially in the right circumstances and he's got enough skilled players around him to I think make a lot of that stuff work and obviously Jameer Gibbs out of the backfield St.

57:41Dave Helman: Brown at receiver Sam Laporte at tight end like they've got guys and I think the issue for me is that I think the play calling last year was so good on both sides of the ball right like obviously Ben Johnson Ben Johnson you know for three years running was one of the best play callers up there with the Sean McVeigh's the Kevin O 'Connell's uh the Kyle Shanahan's and he really had put together something really special and Aaron Glenn I think by the end had really built something awesome there on the defensive side of the ball like think about how many players they lost last year whether it was like McNeil at a certain point obviously Hutchinson was playing like the early defensive player of the year and then he obviously starts to miss time they were missing dbs at certain points in the year every linebacker that was ever rostered for them at some point was injured last year and they still had a top 10 defense like they were a good unit because to me of the way that aaron glenn teaches this thing the way that he knew when to pivot at certain points in the season with the certain types of plays that they were calling he had this commitment to stopping the run understanding that if we get into third and six we're going to kick your ass and we're going to win.

58:48Dave Helman: And this isn't to say that John Morton or Kelvin Shepard are going to be bad play callers next year. But when you're going from, to me, like top six, seven guys in their respective roles on both of those sides into complete unknowns, you know, Morton hasn't really called plays in a decade. Shepard's never done it before. You're just leaving a lot of air between what your floor is and what your ceiling is and actually being able to realize it.

59:14Derrik Klassen: It's pretty easy to draw a comparison between the 2023 Eagles and the 2025 Lions. Exactly. I know the Lions didn't get to the Super Bowl, but they were the one seed in the playoffs. They were this amazing team. They lose both of their play callers at the same time. So I don't disagree with you, but I guess my pushback is even a team like that, which clearly suffered from the brain drain in its organization, they still won like 10 straight games or whatever it was like the Eagles were rolling and the wheels fell off and they still made the playoffs because that's how talented they were. And I do feel that way about the Lions.

59:54Derrik Klassen: I think obviously like this stuff happens gradually over time. I'm worried about the Lions over two or three years, but this year I just, I think there's still enough there that I'm not worried about. I, it did just like I said with Tristan Wirfs, when I got the, when I got the notification on my phone a month or so ago, whenever it was that, uh, Frank Ragnar retired, I was like, ah, shit, that is a big, big deal. Um, so there are definitely things that worry me about the Lions. I certainly, you know, there's nowhere to go but down in terms of wins when you what they went 15 and two. Yeah, like they're not going to have as good of a record this year, but the offensive line should still be good.

1:00:39Derrik Klassen: Graham Glasgow can play center if their rookie is not ready to do it. You still have, you know, you got two great tackles. You got the best running back tandem in the NFL. Jared Goff's a good quarterback, the receivers. And then if, and I'll knock on some wood again, like if Aiden Hutchinson can be, even if he's not what he was right away, like if he's just a good pass rusher, you know, I like some of the stuff they did on defense this offseason, you know, like very under the radar replacing Carlton Davis with DJ Reed, A plus guys, like that's a fantastic way to replace production in your secondary.

1:01:19Derrik Klassen: So there's enough here that I'm just not losing sleep about the Lions. Like maybe they're an 11 and 6 team instead of a 15 and 2 team, but they're still a team that I think should be in the mix. And I trust Dan Campbell's operation that either these are the right guys for the job or he'll find the right guys for the job the way he did with Ben Johnson. Like, you know, Ben Johnson wasn't the play caller from day one. So I trust Dan Campbell to figure this out enough to where I'm still I'm all in on the Lions as being a contender, at least for this season.

1:01:54Dave Helman: And but that's why I can't get a handle on him, because on top of all the other concerns I just voiced and then you bring up the Frank Ragnow thing. And I think that's really is important for Jared Goff, because I think. Goff is a quarterback who is very, very good at executing what is structured around him. but now if you lose Ben Johnson and you lose Frank Ragnar who are kind of your pillars of structure around you I think that that can get a little bit dicey and truthfully like the the Lions offensive line last year I think was not as good as it was in like 2023 like 2023 they were murdering people and in 2024 they were like kind of good but a little I think a little bit more shaky than probably people realize and so I think taking out Ragnar there uh is gonna hurt a little bit but then to your point I actually do like all the stuff they did this offseason like tylic williams in the first round loved him i think he's a fantastic run defender i think he's going to be great for them signing dj reed to replace carlton davis probably about as good as you were going to do in the free agent cornerback market to replace a player like carlton davis i think even bringing in like avante maddox for for depth was like a really good signing for them in in that aspect um and so like i liked a lot of the moves that they did i agree with you that dan campbell like i trust his vision to find the right guys to to call right call the right plays It's just I even though I believe all of those things and I like the moves that they made and all that stuff, there is just part of me that when I just look at the roster and I think how good can this team really be?

1:03:22Dave Helman: I just struggle to feel like they can be that 13 team and win again. Like there's a chance that they can do it because Campbell's that good and some of their best players are that good. But it's harder for me to get there than I wanted it to be, even though I think the floor is probably like nine wins.

1:03:37Derrik Klassen: Let me ask you this. and we know how competitive of a division it is is there a team is there a team in the nfc north that you like on paper right now more than you like the lions i think the packers are a better football team i do and i don't think that's i don't think that's crazy at all i think part of

1:03:55Dave Helman: the reason i'll say that is they have i just mentioned the lack of continuity now with play callers with with detroit right and like again if they might just take the step back like the eagles did and then in 2026 they're great again but with the Packers I know Matt LaFleur is like a top five play caller Jeff Halfley did some really cool stuff with that defense and I think they made some decent additions this offseason and I am of the belief that for as much as we you know obviously Dan Campbell's a really good like CEO type head coach and I think we only kind of envision Matt LaFleur as this like you know play caller du jour like he's just this fantastic like calling all the right plays.

1:04:33Dave Helman: I think Matt LaFleur is a very good, like structures, the team as a whole in a very good way. Like the fact that I brought this up a number of times last year, the Packers were like the third youngest team in the league and they were a playoff team. Do you know how hard, like all the other young teams, it was like the Jaguars, the Patriots, like all these other bad teams. And the fact that they could do it was impressive.

1:04:55Derrik Klassen: I will say though, we've been saying that about the Packers for a couple of years now, and it's still true. Like they made the playoffs in 23 and they made a run. They almost took down the Niners. They did it last year. But at some point, I got to stop saying, look at all this potential. I got to see it. So I'll say three-year outlook, I'll take the Packers every single time. In 2025, I might still lean Lions. Although I readily admit, I mean, if it all clicks for Green Bay, they could be like nine and one halfway through the season. And I'm like, yep, that was a bad take by me. Like the Packers were ready to go.

1:05:34Derrik Klassen: But sitting here before anything gets going, I think I'd still take the Lions, at least for this year, even if I do like the Packers.

1:05:43Dave Helman: Let me posit this. What if Jordan Love just doesn't hurt his groin in week one this year?

1:05:48Derrik Klassen: I mean, that's totally fair. That's totally fair. He clearly was bothered. He clearly was bothered by that all year. And I will say for any Packer fans that are about to email me, like I love Jordan Love. I do not understand the I don't think he really deserves any criticism for last year. I thought given the injury and everything else and the fact that they had Josh Jacobs, I thought he had a very nice season. I don't really understand why people critique him the way that they do. But I still think the Lions are a really good team.

1:06:21Dave Helman: That's fair. So I guess here's the last way I would frame it before we move on to your last team. I probably believe in the capacity for the Lions and Packers. I think they have equal capacity for their floor to be like nine games. Like, I really believe in the floor for both of these teams. But if I had to bet on one team to win 13 games, I think for me it's probably the Packers.

1:06:42Derrik Klassen: Ooh, that's good. No, I think that's fair because, like, if the Packers finally, like, hit on all of the potential, then they could really be cooking with gas. I mean, yeah. So and yeah, like if if you told me I had to like if I got it right here, what's the Lions over under right now? Is it 10 and a half? I'd be comfortable at 10 and a half. I'll take the Lions at 10 and a half. But if it was like 11 and a half, I'm out. No, thank you.

1:07:09Dave Helman: And that's interesting. Like 10 and a half to me made me a little bit queasy. So maybe that's like the difference of one win is where we're at.

1:07:14Derrik Klassen: I think we're still we're still trying to adapt to this 17 game schedule. so like is also part of it 11 wins sounds like so much but like for me 11 and 11 and uh 11 what is it 11 and 6 is the new like 10 and 6 for me where i'm just like like winning 11 games in the old in the old format typically meant that you were like a really good team now i feel like 11 wins is like yeah you're a pretty good team whereas like if you want to really impress me you got to

1:07:44Dave Helman: get to 12 or more that is a good point like i feel like you know five years ago if a team won 11 games i'd be like oh they have a good chance at the super bowl now if a team wins 11 games is like okay they could do it but i don't know if they're one of my betting favorites i think 12 wins is i

1:07:58Derrik Klassen: mean yeah 12 wins used to be good enough to be yeah 12 used to be good enough to be the number one overall seat in the conference and now it seemed more and more we're seeing like 13 14 or if you're the Lions, 15 is like the new best mark.

1:08:13Dave Helman: Somehow the new norm. All right, that's the Lions. Dave, you have one more team here for us. Who do you got?

1:08:19Derrik Klassen: I'm going to get real. Yeah, we're talking about all these high stakes and winning the NFC North and Super Bowl teams. I'm going to take it to the other side, a team that nobody has expectations for. And I'm just, I'm confused by the New Orleans Saints because they refuse to act like a team that needs a reset year. And I mean, that's been the case. It's like a meme at this point. I'm not even talking about the Saints finances, but I just feel like there is an organizational inability to call it what it is for a year. Why are the New Orleans Saints going and getting Justin Reed? Which, Justin Reed's a phenomenal player.

1:08:59Derrik Klassen: He's awesome. He's an underrated piece of those Chiefs defenses. Why do the Saints need him? And for that matter, I'll even give them the credit of saying, clearly, they can say what they want. They clearly didn't know the severity of Derek Carr's injury when free agency opened. Like, you know, maybe they found out before the draft, but I just I don't really buy that they knew in March that they weren't going to have Derek Carr, because why wouldn't you go get a veteran quarterback at that point in time? Even if it's even if it's like, you know, Jacoby Brissett, I'm not asking you to go get somebody awesome, but a guy that can start games for you.

1:09:38Derrik Klassen: They didn't do that. And then they pivoted strangely, in my opinion, by using a major resource at quarterback when it was obvious to me, at least, and to a lot of people that this is kind of a year to like reset and reset the books and just take a breath and say, OK, we pushed our chips in to win a Super Bowl at the end of the Drew Brees era. and then we were reluctant to let go of that. But now we don't have a franchise quarterback and we need to just chill. And is it a big deal at the end of the day to spend the 40th overall pick on Tyler Shook? Not really. But why is it even necessary? I went and looked.

1:10:22Derrik Klassen: Just bear with me here because I know it's absurd. But you can't go get Carson Wentz for a laughable amount of money. Or, you know, could you not coax Teddy Bridgewater to come back to New Orleans where he is a beloved figure to play like one more season or just hand the reins to Spencer Rattler and say like, hey, man, here's your golden opportunity. Like you didn't need to create this situation, but the Saints inability to call it what it is landed them here.

1:10:52Dave Helman: I love that because I'm like sneaky. Don't think Spencer Rattler was that bad last year. I think part of why the numbers look bad is because he was starting to like Mason Tipton because their two best receivers were off the field with various injuries. So that definitely hurt them. The Tyler Shuck thing, I think, kind of captures all of it, because on one hand, them drafting a quarterback is kind of this signal that like, OK, we do want to be a little bit more serious. We do try to want to move into something else instead of taking this just like, you know, we're going to sign a vet and just try to compete or whatever.

1:11:25Dave Helman: but at the same time I feel like the shuck pick is a little bit unserious and this is no shade to shuck the prospect but to me if you are drafting a guy in the top 50 with the belief that he is going to be our long-term starter and we want to develop him in my mind you should have some other veteran in the room to help them who's like they're not really competition but like they're a serious voice who I think can help them and I think this was a point a problem last year with the Bears like they didn't do that and I understand when you know Caleb Williams is the first overall pick you believe that like oh he'll be good enough it doesn't matter he's 21 22 years old it probably matters to have like a veteran in your ear and the fact that the only other guys in the Saints quarterback room are Spencer Rattler and Jake Hainer who are both draft picks within the last two years as well it's like this feels more like a Hunger Games-esque quarterback competition than like a we are developing this guy to be our future thing, which I just don't really love that approach to the position.

1:12:25Dave Helman: Like, again, to your point, if they were going to do that, just let Spencer Rattler play 17 games, man. Like, why do we have to go draft another quarterback to add into that mix? It just feels like such a weird disconnect for how they're trying to do it.

1:12:37Derrik Klassen: And I'll even squint. I'll I'll squint and say, like, there there is some stuff to like about the Saints, particularly on offense. I mean, the defense is its own thing with how old some of those guys. Like, I mean, one of these days Cam Jordan and Demario Davis are going to retire and Tyron Matthew too, but apparently it's not 2025. But there's stuff I like on offense, you know? Like Eric McCoy, back healthy, is a really underrated player at center. If Chris Olave and Rashid Shahid can stay healthy, that is really fun. Brandon Cooks is clearly like on his last legs but can still be a useful player.

1:13:15Derrik Klassen: Alvin Kamara, still a really good running back when he's healthy. So like there's pieces here for a good quarterback to work with. But what sounds more likely to you, Derek, that Tyler Shook is one of the most incredible success stories of all time, comes out of nowhere, and it's just like, boom. Yes, he's our franchise quarterback. He took us to a 9-8 record. Nobody was expecting him to do that, and we're building around him. or he's anything less than that. And the saints are picking in the top half of the draft in a quarterback rich class. And they're going to turn right back around and draft another quarterback.

1:13:53Derrik Klassen: Like that is almost definitely what's going to happen.

1:13:57Dave Helman: Exactly. Like it feels like they burned this pick on just like a, ah, there's a 5 % chance to be good.

1:14:02Derrik Klassen: Just to say that they were doing something. They just, like I said, I think there is an organizational inability and, and I get, look, I'm from new Orleans. I'm intimately familiar with this team. I get it. Prior to Sean Payton and Drew Brees, it was rough and you couldn't get people in the stands. And when they showed up, they had bags on their heads. I'm sure there is like an organizational fear to willingly go back to that. But these half measures aren't getting it done either. And so like, look, it will be so cool if Tyler Shuck is actually that good. But the math says you're going to turn around and draft another quarterback with a better draft pick next year.

1:14:44Derrik Klassen: And Tyler Shuck's just going to be sitting there as I mean, it sounds callous to call him a wasted resource. But if you spend a top 40 pick on a guy that you replace a year later, that's just not good roster building.

1:14:57Dave Helman: Exactly. And again, he might be good. We never know with some of these rookie quarterbacks. but it's just like the the reason and the circumstances around like why and how they've got him into the building just feel a little bit unserious and the other point I would make is like this should have been a very good spot for them to like try something a little bit more creative at head coach obviously you had Sean Payton for you know two decades a decade and a half he was there for a very long time and then you you kind of just keep his guys around in the building with with Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael obviously calling offensive plays for a while.

1:15:30Dave Helman: I think this would have been the year to be like, OK, all of that stuff is gone. We don't need a head coach. We feel like we know something about like, let's go try something new. Let's go get some, you know, random defensive coordinator who hasn't gotten his shot yet or something. And instead they bring in Kellen Moore. And I don't think Kellen Moore is a bad coach, by the way. I think he is a perfectly competent NFL play caller. it's just that this to me again feels like a move where they I feel like you hire Kellen Moore because you know you can get competent offense out of him but you kind of know what the ceiling is but you just feel like okay we can bring him in and we can be we can compete but it's like you're kind of at a point in your roster building an organizational period where you should kind of be looking forward and see if we can just get into a new era of something and to me it didn't feel like Kellen Moore was that type of hire and again maybe he's good maybe he's better than than we realize and maybe he can be that guy but it just like again just vibes wise doesn't feel like that's the type of hire that kellen moore really was this could be a year

1:16:31Derrik Klassen: obviously the goal is to win but like there could be a lot of fun in like resetting you know like with spencer rattler is like he's a fun quarterback with a live arm saints fans use the the snake emoji when they talk about him on social media like you can you can get excited about something new, even if it's not good. And, and I mean, I guess all of that is still on the table, but it's just weird to be like, well, we're going to give this kid a shot at least for a year. And then he might, you know, then we'll see what happens after that. I just, I mean, it's confusing and that is the theme of the show.

1:17:07Derrik Klassen: So I think it works. I mean, I will say Tyler Shook has done an amazing job of just being a saints quarterback so far. Like he's already, you know, he, he was joking with like the St. Brown brothers about maybe maybe equanimous St. Brown got cut because he didn't like the food in New Orleans. Like he's doing a great job of like playing the hand that was dealt to him. But I'm just like, man, if I had to bet they're going to draft a quarterback in the first round next year and we're going to wonder what they were thinking this spring before.

1:17:40Dave Helman: Exactly. And the last thing I will say about the Saints to to give them a little bit of optimism, optimism if the offense is good it will be really cool like the offensive line could be awesome like I love Kelvin Banks like they've got some guys who can move people if Rahid Shahid and Chris Olave are healthy they could be really good and Alvin Kamara I think was like quietly still really awesome last year it's just nobody cared about the Saints like they could be cool it's just the way that it got put together feels a little bit bizarre I firmly believe that this like the

1:18:12Derrik Klassen: Saints would have been a pretty good team and like they would have been playing for the playoffs in the final few weeks of the season if they'd had better injury luck like it wasn't just car it was all of the receivers it was Eric McCoy missed a huge chunk of the season yeah I mean they they had really bad luck last year that landed them here but how they're how they're pivoting from

1:18:33Dave Helman: it is I think it's weird the New Orleans Saints man just the perpetual mystery basically ever since Drew B's retired, just the biggest mystery in the NFL in terms of who are you and where are you going, which that was the point of the show. And that's actually going to wrap it up. The Saints are our last team. And I feel like given that we've, if we did this show for the last five years, the Saints would have been in here every time. So I feel like they're the perfect team to end on. Thank you so much, Dave, for being on. That'll wrap it up. Thank you, everybody, for listening. And we will see you again next week.

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