The teams we just can't figure out going into the season

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0:56Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today, we're digging into the teams that we just, for whatever reason, can't quite get a handle on this offseason. We landed on, I think, about eight teams that, for whatever reason, they just are a little bit confusing. They're a little bit hard to pin down. And this is all over the place. I think, again, this exercise, it says a little bit more about you than it does about the teams. And so the teams that we ended up picking, I think, are very telling. But a lot of fun, kind of naughty conversations on this show because you're really arguing in every single direction about how this could go because you don't really understand where these teams are and what they're going to be capable of this season.

1:37Robert Mays: Really enjoyed digging into this show with Dave and Derek. Let's get to that conversation right now.

1:52Robert Mays: Every year, there are teams that no matter how hard I try, I just can't seem to understand, even as we get close to the season. And it's a useful exercise, and it's a show I enjoy doing each summer, and that's what we're going to dig into today. Just a handful of teams that for each of us, and for whatever reason, we just can't quite get a handle on even a couple weeks into training camp. I'm very curious, Dave, where you landed with yours, because I think it's going to be a very different set of teams for all of us, I would assume, because this says more about you than it does the teams. And so I think it's a very personal expression, what we're going to ultimately land on today collectively.

2:31Derrik Klassen: It's funny you say that, and I do anticipate you being right, but I was thinking about your take from the Half-Baked Takes show while I was putting my list together, where you were talking about how there are more teams than ever that you could see as a playoff team, And it's a nightmare trying to sort through it and pick 14 teams to make the playoffs. I landed on some teams and there are a few teams that confound me, but I think it's fewer than ever before for me. Like there are usually there are usually like half a dozen teams that kind of piss me off at this time of year. And this year, it's more that there are a couple of teams that piss me off.

3:12Derrik Klassen: but it's mainly because I can't decide and not like I can't tell what they're doing. I really feel like I have a handle on what most teams in the NFL are doing. Like there's there's a small group that is very clearly rebooting and rebuilding for a future push. And most of the teams in the NFL, I think, have a pretty clear direction toward either that or contending for the playoffs in 2026. most of my consternation is me not being able to decide how I view a team more so than me not knowing what the hell they're doing. If that makes sense.

3:46Robert Mays: I think that makes total sense. I'm in the exact same boat. These are these teams. I get what the plan was. I just am not sure how well the plan is going to work out for all three of the teams that I landed on, which I guess you're right. That does feel a little bit different than some other years, Derek, where it's about me not understanding what the offseason plan was, how it's supposed to all come together. There is a slightly different flavor to my bucket of teams this year, the way that Dave is saying.

4:13Dave Helman: Yeah, I mean, I like I feel like that to me, like I feel like the Seahawks were a really good example last year of like they were kind of a hard team to get a handle on. And I think even though even if I mean, you saw the vision for the offense more than I did, but even still, it was really hard to picture like what does that actually look like at its best? I think even the Jaguars were kind of a team last year that I had I think on this exact show I had a little bit of trouble like okay the defense is like kind of talented but they played way below their level I think Trevor Lawrence is good but Liam Cohen really only did it for one year in Tampa Bay I don't know if he's going to be able to do it with this offensive line like they were another weird team so I did I will say I think it's easy to pick teams that are in the like fringe-ish playoff range right because those are the teams that it truly is like a coin flip I do have one on like either extreme end of the spectrum where like the team that should be really good or team that should be really bad.

5:03Dave Helman: But I feel like I had a harder time actually gauging whether or not I believe that than I thought.

5:07Robert Mays: I tried to steer away from teams like the Seahawks last year where it's a new coordinator and that's the thing that really muddies the waters. I have a couple of those, but my the indecision and the confusion isn't really about the new coordinator. It's more about how all every how everything comes together because you could just do an entire set of teams that have new coaches. because that's where a lot of the variance comes in. So I'll be very curious to see which direction you guys took this. Dave, why don't you start us off? Who is your first team that you just cannot really get a handle on for 2026?

5:37Derrik Klassen: I think it's a fitting place to start for the three of us, honestly. And that's because I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers. I almost had them.

5:47Robert Mays: They were one of my first teams off. I love this because I'm so curious where you take this.

5:52Derrik Klassen: I just I legitimately don't know what to do with the Green Bay Packers because there's a lot of there are always going to be reasons for optimism with Green Bay they're just a stable consistently well-run organization I know a lot of Packer fans are frustrated with Matt LaFleur but it could be way way worse than Matt LaFleur this is an offense that you typically have been able to count on to be top 10 in all the meaningful metrics. Jordan Love is he's the new king of the nerds quarterback, according to Bill Simmons. Like he's the new guy that advanced metrics watchers key in on and people debate about Jordan Love's a good quarterback.

6:32Derrik Klassen: Jordan Love for me is like a top 10 quarterback. He's better than that, depending on the metrics you want to look at. They have exciting young talent. They have when he eventually is available, they have one of the best defenders in football and Micah Parsons. And it is a long season, by the way. I don't think you can let his lack of availability for the first third of the season completely cloud your view of this team. But for everything I could come up with about reasons you should buy in on the Packers, there's just as much holding me back, whether it's the shuffling on the offensive line, the loss of depth at receiver, which a perfect example of the fun shit we talk about at training camp this year.

7:15Derrik Klassen: I'm really loving the receiver optimism coming out of green Bay right now with like Matthew golden is ascending and he looks like the guy and he's catching all these long bombs from Jordan love. And Jordan love is talking about like, I finally have more time on task with my receivers and we're building chemistry and the rotation makes more sense. And every year up until now it was, we have six great receivers. We're so much better than everybody. I broke my thumb

7:44Robert Mays: a week ago. I can't practice.

7:46Derrik Klassen: Yeah. Well, there's that, but like, I, I love the cope of saying like having three receivers is better than having six. We're glad we don't have the depth anymore. And so, and yeah, I, I just worry about how well they're going to deal with those changes and deal with that loss of depth. The, the cornerback room concerns me, the running back room concerns me. there's there's eight different reasons why I'm worried about Green Bay but they have the quarterback they have the coach they have the stability and so I feel dumb for questioning them but in a very contentious division I just can't I can't figure it out and I don't know how much benefit of the doubt they deserve considering you know for as successful as I view them over the last few years you're still talking about a team that's usually sneaking into the playoffs

8:39Dave Helman: and so what do we do with that I think all the things that you listed for optimism like you know when Micah Parsons comes back he's as as good as anybody at his position Jordan Love is a very good quarterback we think Matt LaFleur is a really good head coach I do think the receiving core if those three are the ones that are playing and are healthy I do think they'll be pretty good especially when Tucker Craft comes back I think those are all reasons that like it's really hard to see this team bottoming out like seven wins does kind of feel like the bottom I just kind of feel like 10 wins is the ceiling like I just don't really think that this roster has enough around it I'm questioning the defensive coordinator hire I don't think they added enough really on the defensive side of the ball and then I've talked a million times the offensive line man like I I know when we were doing we did the um the headlines kind of recap for training camp stuff you and I Dave uh a couple days ago on Thursday Friday Matt LaFleur came out and was having a quote kind of talking about Anthony Belton they were like we love his versatility which that's the most green base shit ever well and for a guy that you're was trying to tell us was going to be your right guard now talking about his versatility towards the end of the camp I'm like well is he going to be the starting right guard and it sounded like they had um another player who I'm forgetting his name now also taking some first team reps at guard so I it's like it's been

9:56Robert Mays: a mix of like Jacob Monk and like Jager Burton yes yeah like Jager Burton is a guy coming out

10:03Derrik Klassen: a family night that's getting a lot of love too, which is fun because I love rookies and the draft is my thing. But I don't know if a fifth round rookie is pushing the second round pick from last year. That concerns me just as much as intrigues me.

10:18Robert Mays: This is partially a product of Zach Bacobo not playing though. I mean, yeah, he hasn't been practicing. And so I think he just got back to practice. And I assume that means Belton is going to move back over. We've we're going to do this a million times with the Packers offensive line before the start of the season because I do think it's an area to focus on I think that's where if I were building a case as to why I can't get a handle on them that's probably where I would start because I just feel the angel in the devil where I look at the talent and I'm like it's not good enough it's not good enough and then on the other side of it it's like they'll be fine they'll be fine they'll get them to a workable place it'll be fine but I think the point that you're making Derek that's probably where I land with it too Remember last year on the half-baked take show, one of the ones that I had is that I just thought that the Packers had like this new clear potential last season, heading into last season, that obviously they didn't realize for a whole host of reasons.

11:08Robert Mays: They weren't that type of team beyond the first two or three weeks of the season. They got really banged up, especially down the stretch. There are reasons they didn't get there. But right now, I question whether that gear is even possible, in part because of the offensive line quality, in part because of the questions about the offense. And so it does feel like the ceiling for this team might be a little bit lower than it's been over the last couple of years when they didn't reach that ceiling anyway. I just feel like that's kind of a disaster.

11:36Derrik Klassen: And some of it, some of it's bad luck, right? Like losing Micah during the stretch run. I mean, there's nothing you can do about that and it sucks, but you trade two ones for Micah Parsons last year. You for a very brief moment did look like the best team in football and you were chasing that dragon for the rest of the year and to sit here one season later and say, ah, 10 wins is kind of the ceiling. And maybe it'll, it'll even be as bad as seven wins, which by the way, they haven't won that few games since they got Mike McCarthy fired. Like this isn't a team that you associate with seven and 10.

12:12Derrik Klassen: And so to be here one year after swinging the trade of the year, because you think you're close to winning a super bowl, it just kind of sucks. And that's like, I'm, I'm trying to grapple with, with the reality of where it looks like they are with where they're supposed to be. And I don't think this is a bad team for the record, but I thought this was a team that was getting ready to take that step into being on the shortlist. And they feel, they don't feel close to the shortlist to me right now. And like, I'm sitting here debating whether I think they're capable of even winning the division, let alone, you know, pushing for the one seat or anything like that.

12:50Robert Mays: that's my devil's advocate point would be even as we're saying all this i'm sitting here looking at the roster how much worse is the roster right now really than it was heading into last season even with the offensive line concerns how much worse is the offer really we've talked about this it's more fragile they have less depth at some of these spots more stuff has to go right but overall is the roster really that is there really that much less talent here than there was heading into last season when I think we had a lot much more collective excitement for where this team is

13:23Dave Helman: at the top end no I don't think so and I will say that like last year Micah Parsons and Tucker Craft are two of their three best players so the fact that they were missing them for a lot of the season especially down the stretch that does hurt them a lot Tom

13:36Robert Mays: wasn't playing by the end of the year Devontae Wyatt wasn't playing by the end of the year like Like there were a bunch of guys that were hurt for this team near the end of last season. And so is it an Occam's razor thing where this actually is still a really good team. And the reason that they disappointed us over the last month or so last year is has more to do with the fact that all of their best players were hurt slash not even playing rather than they actually did kind of turn back into a pumpkin. And that's what we should think of them moving forward. You can hear me just arguing against myself here because I'm in the same place.

14:07Robert Mays: Davis. I don't really know what to do with this.

14:10Derrik Klassen: Two thoughts. Two thoughts. Yes. They're just, they're just less deep, but depth is so important. You're like, you can't just assume that you're going to have things go your way over the course of 18 weeks in the playoffs. Like you're going to

14:24Robert Mays: have to, where are they less deep though? They're less deep along the offensive line where like the guys that used to be depth are now starters, but by the end of last season, those were the starters anyway and even well that's the problem but but it's I but I do think that if all those guys stay healthy you know including I'm gonna keep saying Zach Tom I know he changed his name Bakabaweli including their best offensive lineman did not play by the end of last season so that group is gonna be I mean and Rasheed Walker she walked out paid four million dollars in free agency this year like five million bucks it's not as though he's this high-end left tackle that you're replacing and i get that they're thinner receiver depth is really important and i know that we're joking about them really liking the fact that they only have three guys instead of six look at the best offenses in the league over the last three or four years you got two or three stars that you're just funneling all these targets to and the rest of those players matter very less like canada mumpfield is not the reason that the rams are an elite offense that johan dotson isn't the reason that the Eagles are winning the Super Bowl a couple years ago.

15:25Robert Mays: You look at the Bengals. It's not Andre Yoshivas. That's the reason that this is a top five group all the time.

15:31Derrik Klassen: Don't throw shots at Kanata Mumfield. Like he made the most of the opportunities he was given. But that's an important.

15:38Dave Helman: I do think that that is a good point. The best offenses usually can just funnel. Do the Packers have two guys good enough for that?

15:45Derrik Klassen: Yeah. Do the Packers have stars at receiver? Like, are we calling any of them stars? Christian Watson's a very good player.

15:51Dave Helman: He's pretty good, but he's not. I mean, I don't even think he's like a tier. I don't even think he's within the tier of like T Higgins, who is not even the best receiver on his team.

15:58Derrik Klassen: I think that's the whole thing with the Packers is there. There are quite a few guys on the Packers that we think of as stars who have not necessarily gained that status, in my opinion.

16:09Robert Mays: Here's my concern with all this is that we're going to do this and talk about this team with this tone. And then we're going to get into the season. The offensive line quality is going to be the same, the same as it's been. Maybe they're able to establish themselves on the ground a little bit less than they were when they were at their best a couple years ago when they were really successful, efficient rushing offense. But I'm just imagining this world where Marshawn Lloyd is back on the field and dynamic and giving them an element in the backfield they did not have over the last couple years.

16:38Robert Mays: And we have Matthew Golden coming in and being like, oh, man, Matthew Golden was a first round pick. He's got a lot of juice. Christian Watson's the same guy he was last year. The quarterback is still really good. And the play caller is really good. And we wake up on Halloween and they're the third best offense in the league. And I feel like a moron.

16:54Derrik Klassen: They could be the third best offense in the league and still be frustrating as hell. That is also the Packers story. They were top five offense last year.

17:04Dave Helman: I think I will say I'm probably just tired of being trying to be like ahead on the Packers. And I think I'm probably a little bit of just like, I get that. Show it to me. I think I'm a little bit like I believe in the team kind of, but like, I kind of want to just see it at this point.

17:17Robert Mays: I'm way less gung-ho about it than I've been over the last couple years because I will fully admit that there is a bit of overcorrection and reverse jinxing that goes on with me in this football franchise because of what has happened to me and just the emotional beatdown I've received over the last three decades of my life. So I'm a little bit slower to get there now than I have been recently, but there's still this uneasy feeling in the back of my mind where I know how good Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love are, and it's not like there's scrubs everywhere else. Even if they don't have star power receiver, I do think they're capable enough.

17:51Robert Mays: The defense is another conversation. The defense is something where I think you could see the path last year. And we talked about this a lot, where Jeff Hathley, it's been an interesting, Jeff Hathley's reputation, I think, has been a shifting kind of moving target over the last couple years. Coming out of year one, I thought that he did a really good job with that group of players that they had. It wasn't a very talented roster overall. they drop Micah in there and you're like, okay, this staff did a really good job. Now they do have like a superstar difference maker. Can this be a really good defense?

18:22Robert Mays: And then that really shifted over the course of last year. And so I just think now going to Jonathan Gannon and looking at a similar level of defensive talent, I'm way less excited about the defense this year than I was heading into last year. And that's probably the biggest difference, but the offense still worries me as somebody who is heavily invested in a team in the division. I just if if I wake up on Halloween and the Packers are amazing and everybody is so, you know, the Packers fan base and the team itself is like, well, well, well, don't you feel stupid?

18:55Derrik Klassen: And be like, no, I don't feel stupid at all. I've been waiting for y 'all to do this for three years. Thank you. And thank you for redeeming it.

19:02Dave Helman: I think the last thing I'll say to the fact that the two parts of this team that I'm scared the most about are the offensive line and the corners, the two position groups that are most liable to give up nuclear plays. That is what kind of freaks me out about this team.

19:20Robert Mays: Dynamic and inconsistent is I think where we're going to land with the Packers yet again, which is a familiar story that we've gotten used to over the last few years. All right, we got to move on because we can't spend 15 minutes on every single team. Derek, your first team that you cannot quite get a handle on in 2026 is who? I'm going to go with one that I think people are getting very excited about.

19:42Dave Helman: And I think I'm trying to walk myself back from it a little bit. And that is the New Orleans Saints. Their win total is seven and a half. Boo. I think in an NFC South that everyone thinks they're not the clown in the division. Everyone is looking at the other three teams and being like, I'm not the asshole. They are. And there's some validity to that with the Saints, right? Like they had a promising offensive line already. You bring over David Edwards, who is obviously really good for the Bills. You're going into year two of a quarterback that was not like super exciting and great, but like showed you enough that you want to move forward with him.

20:18Dave Helman: I think Kellen Moore was decent as a play caller last year. The offensive skill players, like if Olave can stay healthy, if Jordan Tyson can stay healthy, if Travis Achan can be a little bit better than he was last year and more consistent, things can turn out well for them and I think there's also on the other side a little bit of optimism about the defense because I do think that Brandon Staley did a pretty good job there but I am a little bit worried that they're losing two of their best players and two guys that were in the spine of their defense in Elante Taylor and Demario Davis and Demario Davis obviously incredible in terms of communication that he's able to do there and them losing him I do think hurts them a little bit so I don't think that this is going to be a spot where everyone's getting excited about the Saints and then they win like three games next year I don't think they're going to be that kind of team.

21:01Dave Helman: I just am really struggling to actually get myself over the hill of like, this is the team that makes like a pretty cool jump.

21:08Robert Mays: What are the personnel areas that you have the most concern about other than the departures on defense? Because you look at the current roster, if you're trying to make a case for why this team will be held back and won't be that surprise fun team in the NFC South, what would you land on?

21:24Dave Helman: I mean, it's not fun to say, but like both Jordan Tyson and Chris Olave, I think injury wise, you just kind of never know. And I know anybody could get injured all the time, but like those are two players that just have a history of it. So it freaks me out a little bit. And then I think honestly, like Tyler Shuck, I think showed some high floor stuff last year. Like he's relatively accurate. He was getting the ball out to the right guys a lot of the time, but he did not really push the ball and he did take a lot of sacks. And so I do think that like, in terms of what the ceiling is for the offense with him at the helm.

21:55Dave Helman: I'm not sure. Obviously next year things should be easier for him if the run game's a little bit better. Tyson I think can be dynamic in some ways. So I think there's some of that in terms of trying to figure out what the ceiling for the offense looks like. I also think even just beyond the roster, I think there was a little bit of like, well, they won four of their last five games last year. Two of those were against the Jets and the Titans and they lost to Miami right before that. Like it's not like they went on like this insane heater at the end of the year. I just, it feels like a team that we're like a year early on.

22:24Dave Helman: And I think I'm trying to grapple with that a little bit. This is partially, so this sounds like,

22:32Robert Mays: it's not that you don't have a handle on the Saints, is that you think everyone else's handle on the Saints is wrong. It's a little aggressive.

22:40Dave Helman: And like, but the problem is, I don't think it's unfounded. Like I could totally see, like Chuck, I could see him making that leap. And if he's a little bit more aggressive and a little bit more accurate down the field, this could come together. If David Edwards is exactly who he's been the last handful of years and Kelvin Banks takes a step and Fawaga is a little bit better, the offensive line could kick ass. Like, it's easy for me to see what it looks like when it's there. I just have a hard time, like, I think, fully getting myself over the hill and trying to figure out if I actually believe they're going to do it.

23:11Dave Helman: But what does it mean? well I think what Dave kind of asked on one of the other shows of like how high how good would the offense have to be for you to be surprised I think that there's I think that is almost kind

23:23Robert Mays: of like the central question with the team but if they're like 12th on offense and 15th on defense let's just say that you know what they did if you look at the advanced numbers in the back half of last year they're really good on defense let's just say that falls back to earth a little bit because we're still talking about a unit that while they outperformed expectations there's not a lot of star power on that side of the ball. And there are real questions about what they're going to do on the edge, things like that. So I think that's totally fair. But let's just say that they're the 15th best defense in the league and the 12th best offense in the league.

23:53Robert Mays: That is probably enough to be very serious players to win the NFC South at like 10 and 7. And isn't that kind of where we are? See, I'd say I don't know if I'm there.

24:05Derrik Klassen: This plays very, very well into what Derek is saying, which is that 12th in offense being like a quote unquote realistic place for the saints to land is aggressive. They were the band,

24:19Dave Helman: but it is that's realistic, but upper end of the band, which I think is fair to say though.

24:24Robert Mays: Realistic. Let's just call it average on offense and defense. Yeah.

24:27Dave Helman: Okay.

24:27Robert Mays: Average on offense and defense, I think makes you very competitive in that division. And that, I think that's kind of where I expect them to land.

24:37Derrik Klassen: I think it's, and look, I've said it on multiple shows in the last week or so. Like I'm, I'm trying not to get reeled in too hard by the saints because especially what I was going to say is those of us on the outside. And I have actually talked to people at saints training camp who have, who are impressed by what's happening there. And like, there's a lot of validity to the excitement that's coming out of there. But I still think you're, we're reacting to an incomplete picture, Like being able to see Jordan Tyson move the way he moves is incredibly exciting, but I don't know how much it informs you about how well the overall offense is going to work or just how much Tyler Shuck is developing in year two.

25:21Derrik Klassen: And so like it's easy when you see Jordan Tyson cut, you're like, oh, yeah, this is a top 10 offense. Are you kidding me? This is incredible. And but maybe it's shit. Maybe they're the 20th best offense this year, which would still be a hell of an improvement, by the way. It's just not the seismic improvement that would turn this team into a playoff contender.

25:41Dave Helman: And I do think that's a lot of the like what I can't get a handle on is like, is them taking a step offensively like what Dave just kind of said 20th? Because that would be an improvement. If they are the 20th best offense by DVOA, that would be like a tier up in terms of what they produce, even at the end of last year for the most part. Or is it them getting to 12th? Which if they are 12th, then it's like if they're 12th and the defense is average, they probably win the division. And so that's, I think, what I'm trying to like, because if they're 20th, like seven and a half wins probably is about where the marker should be.

26:12Dave Helman: But is this a team you want to bet the over on? And that's kind of where I'm trying to grapple with.

26:17Derrik Klassen: If they're 12th, we're going, I'm going home and we're going to do shows from Decatur. Like that would be so, that would be so fun.

26:26Robert Mays: I think you guys are exactly right. I think I am getting a little bit ahead of myself. And when you look at the numbers from last year, it is kind of a stark reality check. They were 27th in EPA per play. But I think a really big chunk of that is this was a heinous rushing team last year. Yeah. Like they were so, so bad. It was negative 0.11 EPA per rush. It was 31st in the league. Only the Raiders were worse. And so if you can build yourself a little bit of a case for, okay, Eric McCoy comes back. You bring in David Edwards in free agency. You have another year from the young tackles. And you bring in Travis H.

27:00Robert Mays: Part of it was that the backs last year just had no juice whatsoever. whatever like Camara God bless him like truly one of the most exciting fun players of the last decade it it's over for Alvin Camara like he's going to play a very bit role there if anything in terms of like early down rushing stuff there's a reason they went out and paid Travis H and a shitload of money and so if they're rushing ecosystem kind of reminds me a little bit of the conversation we're having about the Texans last week where if you can get to a place that just feels acceptable you do see the up the the uh the roadmap for the off for the passing game and the chance for that to get a lot better.

27:33Robert Mays: But you guys are totally right. Me just being like, well, if they're 12th on offense and treating it as though that wouldn't be like some seismic improvement. Like a 90th percentile outcome. It's a very, very good point for you guys to bring up. I'm definitely getting a little bit ahead of myself. But again, Derek, just reframing it. You're more so, I think, wanting people to pump the brakes because you do have what is potentially a more clear-eyed vision for what the Saints are than what it's being made out to be. as everyone I think it's two things I think it's one Shuck was so much better than people expected that now I think we're overrating it a little bit when what you're saying is right that it was about the floor not the ceiling and I think that the Jordan Tyson stuff is real like it is hard to watch some of that stuff in practice and not start imagining the coolest version of this thing with him and Chris Olave because it just it was Devon Vele last year like that's what it was and so So I get it.

28:28Robert Mays: And I'm guilty of maybe getting a little bit ahead of myself for those reasons. But I think you guys are right in trying to reel it back in a little bit.

28:36Derrik Klassen: I will say the fun thing about the NFC South is even a more mid version of the Saints taking a step forward is still capable of winning that division. Probably that goes back to Derek's point. Everybody's like, thank God I'm not as bad as these other three teams in this awful division. And they all feel that way.

28:56Robert Mays: I think that's also part of this is that I want to get excited about someone in that division. You have. And so I think I'm speed running the Saints in order to just build an optimistic case for one of those four teams.

29:08Dave Helman: Everyone's going to do it. Like, it's why I keep like getting saying weirdly optimistic things about the Bucs. Like, we'll get to the Bucs today. Don't you worry. You got to pick somebody to win the division. And if it's going to be the Saints offense being the 12th or 13th best offense, that's what it is.

29:21Robert Mays: All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about mine, which I'm already not excited about.

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31:28Dave Helman: Hey, it's Noah Chestnut from The Athletic. If you're into games and sports, pay attention. I'm going to give you four sports terms. You tell me the common thread. Ready? Game. Match. Point. Set. This one's kind of a gimme. The answer is how tennis is scored. Do you want more of a challenge? Check out Connections Sports Edition. It's a new daily game for sports fans. To play now, go to theathletic.com slash connections.

32:06all right the first team i want to mention here there there is just so much

32:13Robert Mays: implicitly tied into and let me do that again five four three there is so much complicated history with the team that i'm about to mention here that is only part of this discussion and but it does play into just my overall issues with sorting out what I think they're going to be. I'm having a really hard time getting a grasp on the Los Angeles chargers.

32:36Dave Helman: I knew exactly that. That set up. I knew it had to be the chargers.

32:40Robert Mays: Let me walk through this. This is like a multi-pronged thing. Okay. The chargers right now have are tied for the sixth best super bullets. That's so high.

32:51Derrik Klassen: Sixth best.

32:52Robert Mays: they are tied with the Patriots and the, and the chiefs at 17 at plus 1700 six best. If you, and this is all like, again, take all this stuff with a grain of salt, but I think it's good context right now. If you look at look ahead lines, the chargers are 14th in implied scoring on offense and points per game. They are 12th in offensive DVOA projections. So if you have the six best super bowl odds, if you're the chargers and you're projected for the 14th most points, doesn't that mean that you're going to have to have one of the best defenses in the league in order to justify having the six best Super Bowl odds?

33:30Robert Mays: And what do we think about that with Jesse Minter no longer being there and it being the same level of defensive talent that they've had over the last couple years? And so I think in order to justify that level of preseason expectation to have the six best Super Bowl odds, you need to think the offense is going to be better than some of the markets currently do, which it absolutely can be. But I think it has to be to justify some of this excitement. And so that's the push and the pull here is that the offense, we have to be projecting it as like a top seven unit, I think, to be as excited about this group as it can be.

34:06Robert Mays: And if it's not going to be that, are we worried about how much of a step back the defense is going to take? And so I think it's just me squaring what the realistic vision is for this Chargers team that justifies a lot of the expectations that are being heaped onto them, because I'm just not sure how that all that stuff is supposed to come together cohesively.

34:28Dave Helman: I don't know if I can get I think I'm pretty much in the same boat as you because like, I think the defensive part like when we we all assume the offense is going to take some sort of a step. But I think even if we love Mike McDaniel, even if we think Justin Herbert is good, even if we think the interior of the offensive line is better with some of the guys that they added them going from what they were last year to let's just call it in the most optimistic case like the fifth best offense in the league that is such a dramatic dramatic jump for a team that doesn't really have like any star skill players yet like maybe omerian hampton is lad mcconkey is like maybe a tier below that when he's been healthy but they don't really have outside of the quarterback who maybe is a good enough difference maker to overcome it to be that level of offense so i think we can push that aside and then the defense i'm with you like there really are not cases where a first year play caller in a defense that defense is like elite it usually takes like a second year he's got to get some of his guys he's got to figure out some of the kinks in the defense and I know that he's you know has some familiarity with this but it is still going to be a different thing and to your point it's not a significantly better defense in terms of talent you know they drafted a key mesador but like other than that it's mostly the same unit that

35:35Robert Mays: they're running back they did that because they had to yeah that being able to move tooly inside and having that be the pass rush group with Owe last year, like they needed a third edge rusher to play the way they wanted to because they just don't have much interior pass rush juice. Like a lot of those guys are bigger. I love Tair Tartt. He's played great, but that's not the type of player he is. And so the moves that they made, a lot of them were the moves they had to make to bolster certain areas of the roster. I think part of this also, and I'm with you on the defense, we just don't know. Like I think Jesse Minter is really, really good.

36:06Robert Mays: And you can make a case that some of the individual pieces maybe better this year than they were last year. Deion Henley had such a weird year where he had that sickness that knocked him out. Obviously, he dealt with the personal tragedy in his family life. And so there's a chance that Deion Henley takes the step forward this year we might have expected him to take last year. Tar Heap still is somebody that I think there's still a little bit of meat left on the bone. Dante Jackson played really well for them last year. And so it's possible that maybe we don't see a lot of elite players on this defense right now.

36:37Robert Mays: And by the middle of this season, maybe that number creeps from you know derwin and it goes from three and a half to five and a half just based on how things shake out i'm open to that but if it doesn't we're putting a lot on not only a first first year play caller but a first time play caller replacing one of in my opinion the best defensive coaches in the league and so i think that's a big strain on what their expectations are and the other layer to this even if we can project them being really good on offense And even if it's realistic to see them as the fifth best offense in the league, what is this offense?

37:13Robert Mays: That's the other thing I can't get a handle on because just structurally, like when you look at it, when I was there, it was the first day of practice. So no pads, take it all with a block of salt, but they're really pushing the ball down the field outside the numbers. And during the practice I watch, we're getting these big sale routes off play action. And I do think with Justin Herbert as your quarterback, you should be doing some of that. That's not what Mike McDaniel did in Miami. So I think that this thing is going to look and feel so much different than it did. How many clips have we seen of Keaton Mitchell catching 50-yard bombs during training camp?

37:48Robert Mays: That's something that hasn't happened. And so I don't, that stuff is good. That lack of clarity is fun. I think that stuff is going to be really exciting, but it just adds another layer of confusion about what this team is ultimately going to be. because even if I can project the offense being the fifth best offense in the league, what it looks like on a given NFL Sunday is just another thing that I don't really know what to make of right now.

38:15Derrik Klassen: See, but that's exciting. And yes, for the record, I don't feel comfortable putting Super Bowl expectations on the LA chargers. I just, I can't get there sight unseen, but man, the offense, it could be so fun. And the fact that we don't know what it looks like is just a mark of good coaching because Mike McDaniel used to have an immobile quarterback with a bad arm. And now he has a transformer at quarterback. And by the way, it's so easy to think of what the receivers did for Miami and those receivers, at least right now, you don't think of being in LA. But if the tackles can stay healthy, that in itself is a weapon, like having arguably the best tackle duo in the NFL and a good center.

39:01Derrik Klassen: Oh, my God. Imagine Chargers fans could never. They have no idea. You get a good center working in front of Justin Herbert and a great tackle duo. It could be it could be insane what they're capable of. And the stuff that Mike McDaniel can do in the run game, by the way, he's so good and so creative at designing that stuff. And obviously having Herbert, I mean, I don't know, dude, the optimistic case here. If I was just really buying in on the Chargers top two offense, screw, screw.

39:33Robert Mays: It's there. It's absolutely there. But I think it needs to happen that way or be close to that to justify this level of like preseason expectation.

39:44Derrik Klassen: That's it's similar to the Saints, but a different version where like, can we can we just be optimistic about the Chargers without having them sixth in the Super Bowl odds? Like that's pretty, you know, I firmly expect the Chargers to fight for a playoff spot, but like, yes, six in the Superbowl odds is a lot.

40:02Dave Helman: That's kind of where I am. Who is like 10th in Superbowl odds? Like that, like, I feel like the Chargers to me are more a team that we're going to fit into the back end of the table rather than like at six where it's like, you are very obviously in this group. I think that to me is the difference. It's like, are you obviously one of them or are you more like that rung under?

40:22Robert Mays: 10th in Superbowl odds is like, Well, there are teams, there are a lot of teams tied for it with the Chargers for sixth. So sixth, seventh, eighth. So tied for 10th is like the Lions and the Niners are plus 1800. It's all kind of grouped together. The group that's like a step down from there is the Bengals, the Broncos and the Packers.

40:46Dave Helman: See, I don't know, man. Like, I just don't know if they should be like a tier above those teams necessarily. Maybe the Packers, because I just talked about, I have like a lot of questions about what the ceiling of that team is whereas at least this team like between Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel and if the defense doesn't take that much of a step back I can see the ceiling a little bit easier I just that feels like it feels aggressive is all it feels a little

41:08Robert Mays: aggressive I think it comes back to this idea that I think we're baking in them being elite on offense to be placing them here and I maybe we just should be doing that like maybe with Justin Herbert Mike McDaniel and the offensive line improvements we should just be doing that but But I think that there are reasons to maybe pump the brakes a tiny bit before we're just penciling that in, even if we can see it working out that way. All right, Dave, what's your next one here? Your next team that you cannot quite get a handle on.

41:36Derrik Klassen: You're going to sense a theme here because it's the division that's been keeping me awake at night since March when all of the personnel moves started happening. The Minnesota Vikings. And we don't have to spend a lot of time on it because it's pretty obvious, but like the Minnesota Vikings are Schrodinger's team. They're just, they're in the box. They like, you know, the box opens in week one and they could be a really good team that wins 11 games. Or maybe they're a seven and 10 team that finishes last in the division. I do feel like those are the two options, seven and 10 or 11 and six and a wildcard team.

42:15Derrik Klassen: I, it would be surprising to me if the Vikings were anywhere in between that. Like I just this this feels like Kyler's either going to hit like gangbusters and remind people that he's not a bum and this is going to be a pretty good team or it's going to blow up in their face and both quarterbacks are going to play and they're just going to be disgusting and we're not going to want to talk about them by November. Those are the two those are the two paths I see in front of the Vikings.

42:43Robert Mays: They were also on my short list because I really am not sure what to do with all this. There's a bunch of different reasons for it. The Kyler part is obviously the biggest question. And I think that the offensive line being healthier than it was last year, the running game being better. I mean, there are just so many different things that could feel more potent about this offense. I guess potency maybe isn't the best way to frame it. They've felt potent in years past, just more complete, just where it feels a little bit less volatile, where you can run the ball a little bit more, it feels a little bit more consistent.

43:15Robert Mays: and that's independent of whatever they get from Kyler. And the other part of this that I think kind of leads to some indecision and some curiosity, what we've been hearing out of training camp, and again, you never know how real any of this stuff is and whether it's actually going to make an impact when the season starts, but this rookie class has gotten more buzz for the Vikings than any. I mean, they really haven't had many real rookie classes in the last few years, but this team has won a bunch of games under Kevin O 'Connell without that injection of cost of like rookie talent and drafted talent that we often see from other teams that make a jump, right?

43:52Robert Mays: Think about all the other teams that get to an elite level and winning a lot of games for the most part, at least one or two of those seasons is fueled by you just get this class of rookies that come in and make the team feel so much different. The Vikings haven't had that. What if this is the year where that happens for them on defense in conjunction with them getting better quarterback play, a better running game. And now it's coming from two directions.

44:18Derrik Klassen: If the stuff that's coming out of Vikings camp about their rookies is even half accurate, because you can't just take it at face value. You know, the way that drills are structured are... We've been in pads for like five days. Yeah, exactly. Like, you can't take it at face value, but if the hype is even half accurate, then I'm so excited to watch this team. Like Ty Felton's out here doing Justin Jefferson impressions and all the defensive rookies are having the camp of their lives to hear it from people that are there. I can't buy in on that completely, but there's enough buzz there to have me really, really interested in the young players on this team.

44:57Dave Helman: And like, I think for me, a lot of the, I also on my shortlist, by the way, I think this is like the team of the exercise, but I, the offense is like its own thing with Kyla Murray. we don't know the defense like I think I'm not taking it as much of a given that they'll just be a top five defense unless like most of these rookies hit because I think otherwise like I know that Brian Flores always does an excellent job like getting the most out of his talent but Dallas Turner being like a starting guy like I like who's like taking even more snaps now I think that's like potentially a downgrade from like Gernard corner I still like they're gonna be able to be fine and get by but I think now with like out Harrison Smith no longer being there like the safety concerns me a little bit more like it just does not feel like they have enough star talent here unless Caleb Banks is awesome or like Jake Golday is a really good player right away or Dominique Orange is really good like they kind of need them to pop I think in a way that

45:50Derrik Klassen: is hard to get a gauge on unless Charles Demings is all rookie right away which is what I'm hearing out of Vikings camp Derek it's the buzz the buzz is ridiculous like I said I'm I refuse to buy it completely but the day after day it's either the young defensive lineman the young corner the young receiver like every time I check in on them there's something new and because I think I

46:14Dave Helman: think if they're gonna be a let's say 12-1 team like if they're gonna somehow get back to those heights I don't think it will be the offense being elite like I do think Kyler Murray is gonna help them but I don't think it's going to be an elite offense I think they'll just be pretty good I think it still has to be this team being like that level of team has to be off the back of the defense being like a top five unit again. And like the formula is we're a top half of the league offense. We're pretty good. We're more consistent. And the defense still absolutely kicks ass. And I think for us to get there, like at least two of these rookies, I think have to be like pretty good players right out of the game.

46:47Robert Mays: Your hesitance about the ceiling on the offense, is that mostly about what a Kyler Murray led offense can have as a ceiling independent of all the stuff that's around him?

46:58Dave Helman: Yeah, I think so. And like, I think that's fair. because Kyler Murray is so funny I think he is in a spot where he is either overrated or underrated

47:05Robert Mays: at all times so true he's another one of those guys that I think it's the same as that it's similar sort of consideration with the shuck conversation where because he was so much better than people expected it's warped how we talk about him because Kyler Murray is so much better than J.J. McCarthy it's just warping how we're talking about Kyler Murray in these circumstances yeah

47:26Dave Helman: And it's always like he's either like on these huge vacillations, like there's times where he's got like a nine week stretch where he looks like an MVP. And it was like that was probably a little us getting over our skis. Like he had a good stretch, but he probably was never that caliber of good consistently. But then we're at the point last year where like last year kind of goes poorly. He gets benched. He has some of the like, is he injured? Is he not injured? And I think we're like forgetting that for the most part, he'd never been a bad quarterback before that. Like he'd maybe had some stretches where he was average or something, but he'd never been bad.

47:55Dave Helman: And so I think if you just put like quarterback 16 play on what the Vikings were last year, it's like, yeah, that's probably an offense that's knocking on the door of top 10.

48:03Robert Mays: They were 9-8 with quarterback 35 last year. All right, Derek, what's your next one? Next team you can't get a handle on.

48:12Dave Helman: Okay. This team is probably going to be bad, but I truly just mostly cannot figure out one side of the ball and what they're going to be. The Arizona Cardinals, I actually have a really hard time figuring out what they're going to be.

48:24Robert Mays: I thought about them as well I don't think this is a weird tag I think this is great

48:27Dave Helman: like they have the hardest schedule in the NFL they won not very many games last year the quarterback situation them like going into the year with Jacoby Brissett like people are not that excited about the coaching staff I get it I get all of that but you look at this team they were the second most injured team according to adjusted games law since 2001 according to FTN and some of that I think is like the Murray being on IR even though he wasn't but like still this This was a team that was banged up all the time. Offense, I think we can have some total different considerations about like, well, is it going to be that much better?

48:59Dave Helman: You know, because Jacoby Resetta is still the quarterback, whatever. On defense, this team was eighth in DVOA for the first nine weeks of the season. Like they and some of that was like them doing funky shit with the safeties. And I think maybe just catching teams early. And some of that stuff. That's going to continue. But it will. It will. But I think some of that stuff early in the season plays better than it does late. Like I think some of the Brian Flores blitz stuff. It's like a similar sort of bucket. At the same time, Will Johnson missed weeks nine and 10 and then was kind of on and off the injury report after that.

49:30Dave Helman: Max Melton mixed four games over that stretch down the half, down the second half of the season. Walter Nolan obviously missed time early, but then also missed a handful of games down the stretch with a knee. Daydrian Taylor Demerson mixed weeks 11 through 15 with an ankle injury. Jalen Thompson missed week 15 and 16. and Mack Wilson, who was their green dot guy, missed most of the like from the Seattle game and on, which is like right after that week nine cutoff point that I said. So like half of their starting defense basically was not playing. And so I don't think all of these guys are perfect players, but I just think that there's a chance that like year three in the system, maybe a guy like Nolan takes a step, maybe Will Johnson's even better.

50:10Dave Helman: And they're just not catastrophically injured that like this can actually be a team that like keeps them in games and gives their offense a fighting chance.

50:19Robert Mays: When I was there, somebody in the organization said this to me, and I think it's a good point. And sometimes you hear this, and it's a little bit of cope from people in the building. But I think this is a good consideration with this team. What's worse about the roster now than it was heading into last year?

50:34Dave Helman: We saw them lose games. That's it. Like we saw it happen. Like that's it. But I don't really think the if anything, the roster is better. You look at the offense now, because last year, what did we say about the offense they didn't do anything and obviously you know losing Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett whatever but the offense adding an awesome running back adding a guard that we think is pretty good and even Kendrick Bourne is like a third receiver I think is better than the guys that they were trotting out there last year for that it's like I the roster kind of just looks better this feels like this feels like offseason cope to me I gotta be

51:06Derrik Klassen: honest with you and I'll I think that's a good point Maze that the the roster is is solid or at least better than given credit for. And at the very least, I will meet you in the place of saying, you know, the Cardinals right now are viewed as this year's tank team. And like, they're just, they're not an NFL caliber team. That's bullshit. That's not true. They're better than that.

51:27Robert Mays: This is very different than the situation that Miami dolphins are in extremely different.

51:33Derrik Klassen: Isn't the best case scenario, like the best case scenario for this year's Cardinals feels very similar to last year's saints where everybody is shitting on you throughout the summer. And by the end of the year, you're picking eighth instead of first. And like that is an accomplishment. You're still picking in the top 10 and the best case finish for you in the division is probably third, like very best case is probably third. And even that might take some other shit happening to some other teams. Yeah, that that's, I think that's even generous. And I think part of this is a world where something goes terribly wrong for one of the other three teams.

52:11Robert Mays: Two things can be true at the same time here. The Cardinals can be a team that is set up to win six games this year and be one of the worst teams in the league. But they can also not be this completely barren wasteland of talent that is going to be a joke. The division that they play in and having to play against those three teams six times. And we'll see what happens with the Niners, obviously, right? It gets worse by the day. But for the most part, you're having to play six games against teams that are set up to win a lot of football games. But I think the Cardinals can be a team that finishes near the bottom of the NFL and wins and not be a team that people are just like, wow, this is disgusting.

52:54Robert Mays: They're incompetent. They don't have any players. I think those two things can coexist at the same time. And I think we're not talking about them as a team that can bring a level of competency to the 2026 season. I think they actually are.

53:08Derrik Klassen: I'm hip to y 'all's game because y 'all are excited about the Cardinals because they're going to be a mainstay on the hangover. And in the second half of the year, y 'all are going to be like, you're like, are you seeing all this crazy shit? Nick Rollins did it again, baby. And meanwhile, the actual record is like four and 11. But y 'all are just having the time of your lives.

53:27Dave Helman: Well, and I will say, because the schedule is going to be so hard, they play in their division. I think their over-under win total is like around four wins. I probably don't think it's going to be much higher than that. But I do think that, like, what am I trying to get a handle on? The defense finished the year 27th in weighted DVOA. But like I said, the first nine weeks of the season, they were top 10. I'm trying to figure out which, because that's like almost as far as you can get in terms of like being on different ends of the band. I'm trying to get a handle on which one I think they actually land in.

53:57Robert Mays: I think part of this also is that we see a team without a clear, and talking about this, Dave, when we were discussing the amount of teams that you know what they're doing, you see the path. How many teams are in as unsettled of a quarterback situation when it comes to the future as the Cardinals are? I would say zero. Like the Dolphins already have Malik Willis and probably will be picking at the top of the draft. The Jets have Geno Smith this year. The Jets have 17 first round picks next year. The Browns have multiple first round picks next year. So in terms of the multi-year outlook at the position, I think the Cardinals have the murkiest quarterback future, probably of any team in the league.

54:39Robert Mays: And I think that is encroaching on the way that people are thinking about them in a way that kind of seems like overkill. I think it's, I think we're overrating what that means for this year's version of the team. Like Jacoby percent, isn't an exciting option. I don't think Jacoby Brissett is a completely incompetent NFL quarterback.

54:59Dave Helman: Oh, that's not, especially if they can actually run the ball the way that they're hoping to. Like that, a lot of good players on that offense. They have a lot of good players on that offense. They could be a totally acceptable offense on that side of the ball, especially to if Matt LaFleur, like actually has something to him. Like I, there's a chance that like, I just, again, I think trying to figure out the win total is hard because they do play such a bloody schedule, but I don't know, man. I just feel like them getting lumped in with like the Jets and the Dolphins. I just I'm like, I don't know.

55:28Dave Helman: They feel like a better team than that to me.

55:30Robert Mays: That is right. I think that's exactly where I land. The win total is hard to pin down, but they are not a team where and the Jets again, we don't have to do this whole thing of the Jets again. I like a lot of the underlying talent that is currently emerging on the Jets. I just have such little faith in the coaching staff that it's hard to get excited about the Jets. I think the Cardinals are in a slightly different. situation. And it's a slightly different set of considerations with this team. We'll see. Maybe they win two games and we all look like morons. But right now, I just think that they're going to be a little bit easier to watch than that.

56:05Robert Mays: All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a few more of these teams we can't quite figure out.

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56:43Robert Mays: it's so telling that each of these discussions turns into like a 12-minute thing because we're just arguing against ourselves because that was the it was inevitable when it came to this show it's completely inevitable here's i'm gonna go with a team that uh is actually tied with the chargers in those super bowl lots this might seem like a weird one but i i've had a hard time with them all offseason I can't really get a handle on what the Patriots are interesting this is good I kind of think they're gonna kick ass so I look at it I and I will fully admit this a good chunk of this how much I can't really say but a good chunk of this is being so scarred by what the playoffs looked like and I think that's partially unfair you know you play four of the top teams in weighted defensive DVOA in the playoffs, including the teams that finished first and second.

57:34Robert Mays: You played the Texans in a rainstorm and it was 35 degrees. You played the Broncos in a snowstorm. So there are a lot of reasons why the offense didn't look very good. But I think that part of this is looking at the season that Drake may had and being like, no, this is real. I know the schedule was bad, but this is real. And then feeling a little bit burned by how the playoffs went. And I think that's in the back of my mind as I think about the offense. But if you come down in a place where let's just say it's kind of a middle ground between them being the most efficient offense in the league for a chunk of the season and being really ugly in the playoffs and that in reality against an average schedule, they're the 12th best offense in football last year, which I think is real.

58:16Robert Mays: I think that's reasonable, right? If that's the case and you look at the improvements they made this offseason, I think it's easy to talk yourselves into them being like a firm top eight offense with A.J. Brown coming in with the offensive line improvements. But I think, again, in order to get there, you have to believe that it's closer to what they were during the regular season last year than what they were in the playoffs. And I think I feel a little bit burned by the playoffs. And then you go to the defense, and I really like what Zach Kerr did last year. I think he did a really good job with the talent that they had.

58:48Robert Mays: there can you look me in the face and tell me the defensive personnel right now for the new England Patriots it's better than it was at the end of last season well it's not better you the

58:58Dave Helman: if you're trying to make any case that they will be a better unit overall it's just that Zach Kerr is in year two and they they like the players they added might make the defense different so you're hoping that different means better but I don't I don't know that that is necessarily true isn't that worrisome which part what that they're going to be worse i don't think that they'll be

59:18Robert Mays: that much worse though the case that you just made to me doesn't feel like a strong case that

59:24Dave Helman: that's all i'm gonna say i i don't think the i don't think the defense is gonna like be a some like elite unit but i think that the offense is gonna be so good that it's gonna be

59:34Derrik Klassen: fine who did the defense lose that's keeping you up at night i guess tonga tonga and chase on and And Hawkins, and it's like, it's you guys cannot talk to me. Chase on is replaced by Jones, though.

59:47Dave Helman: So I'm fine with that.

59:48Robert Mays: Yeah, it's just different, a different sort of player. But like, it's not as though they lost these like superstar level talents, but they lost some guys that played well for them last year. And like Kevin Byard is exciting when it comes to creating turnovers. Kevin Byard, there's a reason I think the Bears are willing to move on when they needed to replace two safeties. I'm not sure this defense is significantly better with Kevin Byard instead of Jalen Hawkins. And so the defensive personnel, I don't think is better. And even if we liked what the coaching staff did last year, I still think the realistic outlook for this unit is probably like a slightly above average defense.

1:00:22Robert Mays: And so I think then it gets back to what you think the offense is going to be. And I think it's because of what happened in the playoffs last year. I'm just not sure where I land on the starting point. Right. I think that's the question here. Where is the offense starting from as you consider the AJ Brown addition, the Elijah Vera Tucker addition, the Romeo Dobbs addition? And I think I don't have a good handle on that. So I don't know how I feel about where they finished.

1:00:50Derrik Klassen: So you are, hang on, I gotta, I gotta pull up the exact ranks. Like we're that worried about how they did against the first, second and fifth defense in DVOA in a row last year. and the Chargers who are also in the top 10 and the Chargers who are also good. I'm not. I refuse. The only thing the only thing that gives me pause about the Patriots is they're playing a much harder schedule this year and they share a division with one of the most consistently good teams of the decade. And so could they be in a situation where they're having to like do the wild card bit and maybe they're 10 and 7 and playing on the road in the playoffs instead of what they did last year?

1:01:32Derrik Klassen: Yes, that is completely believable to me. but I'm not really very worried about them. I think Drake may is the man and they upgraded the talent around him tremendously. Yeah.

1:01:42Dave Helman: I think the offense, I can cope myself out of it, even with the playoffs, like one playing a murderous row is going to be hard on anybody too. I've also said, even like before Drake may had his struggles, a quarterback's first or second playoff run. I'm usually like, whatever. It's kind of gravy that you even got here. A lot of the times.

1:01:59Robert Mays: This isn't about Drake may being fraudulent. This is more about the offense overall. Like the fact that they got pantsed in the Super Bowl. Like I that's and it's not the quarterback. It's everything else. Like I guess that's where I come down on it. Is this an offense that was able to pick on some bad teams last year? And when we actually get down to it is like the Josh McDaniels and the rest of the offensive staff and just the setup there. Like is it maybe a little bit more vulnerable than it looks for a good chunk of last season?

1:02:32Derrik Klassen: The quarterback I still believe in. If Drake may plays at that level on an even somewhat consistent basis, like the Patriots are going to regress this year. They went 14 and three and got to the Superbowl. The odds that they, even if they get back to the Superbowl, the odds that they do it with that record are not good, but the regression version of the Pats is still 10 and seven, 11 and six with Drake may playing like a pro bowl caliber player. Like I just, maybe I'm not giving it enough thought, but I don't really think you need to overthink it.

1:03:04Robert Mays: This is funny because I think this is partially that maybe I'm looking at it as people expect them to be like an elite team. They're over-unders, nine and a half. And so I kind of think that's right, but I guess I'm wondering if people think they're going to be a lot better than that.

1:03:22Dave Helman: Which, like, I do wonder where, I think, I'm trying to figure out where some of the super optimism would come from because I think most people probably agree. Even if the offense will take some sort of step back and maybe they were getting a little bit lucky last year because of the schedule. Would you add A.J. Brown, Romeo Dubs, Elijah Veritaker, like to all of those guys, you get another year in the system. I think we all believe they should be good. I think a lot of the optimism comes down to like almost the opposite of what you're saying with the playoffs thing. Like we saw the Patriots offense look so bad in the playoffs, but we saw their defense look incredible for all of the playoffs.

1:03:57Dave Helman: So I wonder if there's also like a little bit more like more optimism on that side of the ball then is probably warranted for what they were for a lot of the season.

1:04:04Robert Mays: I guess this comes down to how good is the offense going to be. And I guess I don't really have a handle on how good the offense is going to be, whether that's the 12th best offense in the league or the third best offense in the league. I don't know. And I think I think other I think there are probably some people that are just completely ignoring the chance that they're the 12th best offense in the league. And I'm not based on how the how last season ended because I'm having a hard time ejecting that from my mind.

1:04:31Derrik Klassen: Pats have the same Super Bowl odds as the Chargers. Who do you feel better about? The Patriots. The Chargers. Patriots all the way for me. Yeah, I think it's the Patriots. That's interesting, though.

1:04:43Robert Mays: Maybe it's the unknown. Maybe it's like the unknown Mike McDaniel part of it. Where, like, it's because I haven't seen what that's going to look like. I can just have boundless optimism for it.

1:04:54Derrik Klassen: And what about the what about the unknown of Drake may could have won MVP playing with good wide receivers like legitimately really good wide receivers.

1:05:04Robert Mays: But I don't think their wide receivers were bad last year.

1:05:07Derrik Klassen: They weren't. But the Dobson, A.J. Brown are a lot better than what they had.

1:05:12Robert Mays: It's an upgrade for sure. Even if they weren't. You think Romeo Dobbs is a better player than Stefan Diggs was for the Patriots last year.

1:05:20Dave Helman: I think he's as good as Stefan Diggs was. And then I think A.J. Brown is. an entire universe better than all of the guys that they had last year because i will say a lot of heavy lifting i will say i do think some of the like if you're a little bit skeptical i think there is and this is fair like is aj brown still aj brown i think i am personally willing to believe he is very much still aj brown and last year was just sometimes shit happens and guys need to go play for different teams and i think i'm willing to buy that with this team i will about the 12th offense thing do you think that's their floor or just like a more realistic outcome because to me

1:05:57Robert Mays: that's like the floor i don't know and i think that's you guys reacting this way i think is part of the reason i wanted to include the patriots here because i think other a lot of people are just looking at this and being like we get the drag may season we had last year we add aj brown we're going to the moon and i'm just like are we are we sure about this like i i don't know i just think I have more questions. And the part of this is I'm there. The taste left in my mouth by how the offense looked at the end of last year. Now we're just adding a couple pieces to it and thinking that's going to be the thing that fixes everything.

1:06:32Robert Mays: I think I'm I felt the exact same way about the taste in my mouth left by the Chargers offense. They're completely starting over. And so I think that's why I'm a little bit less concerned about the way that last season ended for the Chargers, even though I think both of those units looked really ugly in the playoffs. So I think a lot of people are just treating this as like a given that A.J. Brown plus last year's Patriots is going to mean the fifth best offense in the league. And I just think I have more doubts about that. And I might be completely wrong in seeing it that way. But I think that's the point of the show is that I can't get a handle on it because I feel like there's a gap between how I'm seeing this and how everyone else is seeing this.

1:07:12Derrik Klassen: I just think the bad version of the Pats is still going to be pretty good, even if they don't come close to what they did last year.

1:07:19Dave Helman: And I think my other thing is like, Mike Frabel's a damn good ball coach, man. Like, I just don't think that they'll be bad. And the teams that kind of petered out at the end of the Tennessee era, the rosters were just way worse than what he's working with currently on this Patriots team, I think. I don't think they're going to be bad,

1:07:33Robert Mays: but could they, is there a world where they go like eight and nine?

1:07:39Dave Helman: I don't think so. If Drake May gets hurt. I would be shocked if they have a losing record with Drake May playing 17 games.

1:07:46Robert Mays: I guess I'm just more down on them than other people are, and I can't quite articulate why. There's just this, I don't know, there's this feeling I have that I'm having trouble reconciling. The playoffs were brutal. I think that's part of why I want to include that. The playoffs were brutal, to your point.

1:08:00Dave Helman: I think a lot of things are true. Last year was kind of fake, and they probably did not belong there. They were not a caliber of team that typically makes the Super Bowl. And they also, even in getting there, kind of hobbled there because the offense was just not. good for a majority of those games for for a majority of those minutes at the same time I still think that like the core of what they were was pretty good especially with Drake May Josh McDaniels coming back and they've added when he's playing at his best what like the fourth best receiver in the league like I just I think I'm willing to get there with this team I'm willing

1:08:34Robert Mays: to buy it I'm you guys are starting to talk me into it I just I guess I just feel a little bit burned and I feel like I can't quite get a handle on what they really were during the regular season last year. That's at the core. That's the crux of this.

1:08:47Derrik Klassen: I will say this. They obviously get four games against the Dolphins and Jets. But other than that, it really is a loaded schedule, at least in the preseason. Who knows how it'll age? But there's not a lot of quote unquote weeks off on this schedule. And so by the time December rolls around, I don't think we'll be debating how good the Patriots are, which we were definitely doing in December of last year.

1:09:11Robert Mays: Some of these playoff teams are not going to be as good as we think they're going to be. Somebody has to be a little bit worse. And I'm just trying to figure out who's going to be a little bit worse. All right, let's hit a couple more of these. Dave, you got one more for me, a team that you can't quite get a handle on for this year. Let's do these last couple pretty quickly.

1:09:28Derrik Klassen: Yeah, we can do this one quickly because we just talked about them. I promise you, if you listen to the show, you already know I felt this way because I was bitching about them a few days ago. The Commanders. And now on top of how tenuous the whole thing feels on offense, they lost Laramie Tunsil to a torn tricep, which that's nobody's fault. That sucks. Hopefully he can come back as quickly as possible. But I already felt terrible about the offensive infrastructure heading in. And now you don't have your best offensive player or your best non quarterback anyway. And so, you know, they remind me a little bit of last year's Texans, ironically, because CJ Stroud had shown this crazy high potential.

1:10:09Derrik Klassen: They had gone far in the playoffs. And it was the it was the offensive line for Houston where you're like, are you doing enough to put your year three quarterback in a position to succeed? I don't feel as terrible about the commander's offensive line, at least pre tonsil injury as I did about the Texans last year. but I just, I look at it and I'm like, did you do everything you could to put him in the best position possible? And I know the defense needed to get better, but if you, if the defense jumps from 31st to 17th and the offense is just abysmal, does, is anybody going to give a shit? And so like when you're trying to make the most of a rookie contract and a guy that's shown you, he can get you within a game of the Superbowl this entire off season, And I just felt like the commanders weren't really doing that.

1:10:56Derrik Klassen: And now injury has exacerbated the problem.

1:11:00Robert Mays: I love that. This is just Dave going back to look how they massacred my boy.

1:11:04Derrik Klassen: Yeah.

1:11:05Robert Mays: Help my guy. Come on. I, I get what you're saying. I, this is a team I have a hard time getting a handle on too, in part, because I think that Jane Daniels, the best version of Jane Daniels is so good that they could be fine. They could have been fine offensively. And I think it's harder to make that case now that Tunsil was hurt. The defense, there's a chance that they just spent a small fortune on defensive players and they're still bad. Like that's absolutely still possible.

1:11:36Dave Helman: Because none of these, like, I think some of these guys are nice players. Are any of these pro bowlers, except for like maybe Odafe Owe in his best seasons? You can't build a defensive pro bowlers in free agency. It's not possible to do that. But they don't even have any others from their roster that they're retaining either. So unless Sonny Stiles is the defensive rookie of the year, which I'm willing to put on the table, that's kind of it. As far as guys that I would bet that they can make a Pro Bowl this year. I think it's hard to build a really good defense without enough of those guys.

1:12:07Robert Mays: I think so too. And I think it's hard to build a really good team without a lot of in-house draft picks that are good players. And this team just doesn't have a lot of those guys. I mean that you're this thing is built on a foundation that feels very wobbly and I think that's to me that's what it comes back to when I think about like how excited I could possibly be about the commanders all right Derek you got one more I do and we can keep this quick even though

1:12:34Dave Helman: they're the the team we talk about the most probably I do have a hard time figuring out what I want to do with the Kansas City Chiefs they're over under is 10 and a half and on there's one part of me there's one part of me that says Patrick Mahomes when he's out there even for as ugly as it looks they're a top eight offense sight unseen every time no matter what no matter no matter anything else they're a top eight offense but he's coming off of an ACL injury so I'm not entirely sure how some of that is going to work and what he's actually going to look like it almost feels like they're rushing him back a little bit and like he's special enough that like maybe it's fine but I do think it throws a little bit of a wrench in that the fact I don't know man

1:13:12Robert Mays: I said to Dave, I'm a little bit scared about it. We were talking about it coming into training camp and Dave was like, it seems like he's just going to practice. And I was like, well, let's see what that means. Right? Like if you're just sitting back there in the gun and doing some static team stuff, that's one thing. Have you watched the clips of him in practice? Yes. He's just practicing. Yes. He's just playing, which like, which that's, that is like, I get credit to Dave and I will make a culpa on that. That's impressive. Like him being like, I'm under center, I'm booting out. I'm doing everything just like on August 7th after tearing his ACL midway through the season.

1:13:49Robert Mays: That is some impressive shit. He threw.

1:13:52Derrik Klassen: I know the clip you're talking about. He booted out and contorted his whole body to heave like a 45 yard strike. It's unbelievable.

1:14:00Dave Helman: And so like, yeah, I don't know. Actually do that in October. I mean, I hope so. Like, obviously, the first eight years of his career or whatever would tell me he'll be fine. But I do think trying to gauge like because I will say like even though every time he's been out there, they're a top eight offense. I do think the difference between 100 % Patrick Mahomes and 85 % Patrick Mahomes is like the difference between whether or not this offense functions or not. Like he is that much of a load bearing player. And so I do wonder about that a little bit. And then even on the defense, like I'm optimistic about it.

1:14:32Dave Helman: It's like six new starters and probably going to be structurally different than it's ever been. So I like I have a very hard time figuring out what I actually want to do with that side of the ball. Even I think that's fair.

1:14:44Derrik Klassen: This is actually the perfect team for the exercise, even more so than the Vikings, because the last time we talked about the Chiefs as not a contender was heading into Patrick Mahomes's first season as the starter. And they've just been in that category ever since. Even last year, like we didn't know they were going to bottom out last year. and I didn't accept they were going to bottom out until it happened. And so now trying to slot a team with that much context in history into a new landscape is it's very difficult to do, even if Patrick Mahomes wasn't coming off of an injury. Here's what I'll say.

1:15:20Robert Mays: We've done this for, I was on Barnwell's show. I don't know when it's running, but we already recorded it. We were talking about all the teams that are moving to under center and what it could potentially do for their offense. washington philly uh the bengals doing a little bit more of it what if the chiefs are one of those teams what if the chiefs are just structurally changing the offense even though andy reed is still the coordinator and now we're taking patrick mahomes all these other quarterbacks where it's like man what sort of benefits can they enjoy from doing this a little bit more think about you know the what potentially waits for you on the other side of making it a little bit easier on the quarterback.

1:15:55Robert Mays: What if we're doing that with Mahomes?

1:15:59Dave Helman: There is there is a part of me that wants to believe that there is another part of me that looks at Travis Kelsey being your starting tight end and your other receivers being Xavier Worthy, who weighs about as much as I do by the end of season. Tyquan Thornton is 185 pounds. Cyrus Allen is 180 pounds. Rashi Rice does not seem healthy. Yeah, it's fair. I do think that there is a little bit of like if you get under center, being a little bit bigger and having those guys be able to block for you and do some of that stuff I do think is important and the fact that you just they have not had that for a long time well well if he's your best guy as far as that goes I'm a little concerned

1:16:35Derrik Klassen: it is true I'm just glad you mentioned Cyrus Allen as like a big piece of the puzzle

1:16:41Robert Mays: they might need him to they personnel wise you're right I mean they obviously are set up to play a different way I I'm just wondering where we land with the Chiefs offense like I think that's going to be the biggest question is like do we get to a place where if they can stay a little bit healthier and they're doing just a little bit to make things easier on this and they're more explosive on the ground are we again are we going to wake up on halloween and this is the best offense in the league or the second best offense in the league and we all feel silly because if it almost reminds me a little bit and again this they brought in it was a new coaching staff last year but what happened with the cowboys last season where i'm not asking you to become like last year's seahawks when it comes to like under center and run rates, I'm asking you to get to a place that's like slightly in line with the West, the rest of the way the league is playing in order to make things a tiny bit easier on your, I mean, in Dak's case, top eight, in Mahomes's case, top two quarterback, top three quarterback.

1:17:37Robert Mays: If they can do that, do we, is there a world where the offense is just more dynamic than it's been over the last couple of years? I can see that happening, even if it's a little bit harder to believe, because I still have so many questions about the receiving and skill position personnel.

1:17:51Dave Helman: Well, and I can see that happening too, but I think getting to the spot of what we're just talking about of like structurally, what does that actually look like? I do think I have a hard time getting there, even if like on its face, I actually can believe in kind of optimistic that Kenneth Walker will have this cascade effect for all the explosives and stuff and allow the offense to be good. But I think trying to figure out what it looks like, plus is Mahomes actually 100%. I think those actually give me a little bit of a, I'm not sure where I land.

1:18:19Robert Mays: My light going off is almost like I'm getting the wrap-up sign. That's what's happening right now. Alright, that is all we've got for today. We'll actually be back on Wednesday this week and take tomorrow off, but then we will have shows the rest of the week, including our next Beat Writer Mailbag on Saturday. Please be on the lookout for that. Until then, appreciate it. Talk to you guys soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:19:12Derrik Klassen: each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash five for details.