Trade season is upon us

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2:42Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Trade season is here, baby. A very fun day in the NFL yesterday with Quentin Nelson and DeForest Buckner getting shipped off to NFC West contenders. It's going to be a crazy couple weeks, I think. There are a lot of guys who might be on the block. There are a lot of teams who seem like they're ready to wheel and deal. And we're entering a time when we're seeing more of these trades than ever. So here to help me dig through the moves we've already seen and the moves we might see over the next couple weeks, it is our guy Daniel Popper from The Athletic, formerly our Chargers beat writer now covering transactions of all kinds.

3:19Robert Mays: Our free agency guy, he made a trade big board at The Athletic. He's going to be grading all of the trades. So nobody better at the company to talk to about this stuff right now. So let's dig into it. Yesterday's trades and the trades on the horizon with me and Daniel Popper right now.

3:43Robert Mays: it is officially trade season in the nfl we had some others sprinkle out like last week and the week before but we're really getting going in earnest now that we are hitting late october two big ones come down yesterday a lot more potentially on the horizon here to walk me through the current trade landscape in the NFL is I don't know how to describe your new job like transactions and NFL senior writer and transactions expert Daniel Popper yeah that works I honestly don't even know how to describe it myself you know when I pitched into the company I was like if Dane Brugler is our college scouting department I want to be the athletics pro personnel department so a lot of stuff falls into that bucket but it's pro personnel it's free agency it's contracts it's cap.

4:30It's all of the stuff that I love to do on the Chargers beat and just kind of bringing it to the entire league and a broader audience, hopefully.

4:37Robert Mays: So you put together a big board of just, I guess, trade worthy NFL players is kind of how I would phrase it. Guys who might potentially be on the move for one reason or another. People should go check that out on the athletic right now. You can. It's ranked from one to what? 50? 50. And then there are fits for every single player and just some of the breakdown as to why those guys might get traded. So So I encourage you to go check that out. Before we dig into some of the specifics, I'm just curious about methodology. Is this you just reading the tea leaves of team success or failure, contract stuff?

5:08Robert Mays: Are you talking to agents? Are you talking to people in buildings? Like, how did you end up putting this together? How much is context and how much of it is active reporting? Yeah. So I started looking at the teams that I felt like were close to out of it. And, you know, and at that point it was, you know, Dolphins, Chargers. at that point the bucks saints etc etc and then kind of went through and and just started building like expiring contracts and just put all of those players into um a google doc basically and then you know went back through those same teams and maybe found players that weren't on expiring deals we might have had deals that uh there was no guaranteed money remaining and then i really relied on our on our beat writers so you know i like obviously it's it's easy to look at the teams that are losing and find those players that are, you know, going to potentially be available.

5:59Some of the other names, you know, like an Alex Highsmith, for example, that landed on our list, like that's me talking to Mike DeFabo, our Steelers writer and him being like, hey, this is a guy potentially to include. And then looking at, you know, teams that had, you know, players that had been sort of moved out of a rotation or an area where they were particularly deep, you know, Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Judy. And then, you know, kind of put a list together and then sent it to people in the league just to get an idea of, like, am I really off? Am I not off? You know, one of the responses I got was, like, this is a very aggressive list.

6:35And I was like, yeah. I mean, like, 50 guys are not going to get traded. But it's also supposed to be fun, right? Like, it's, like, trying to paint a picture of who could potentially be moved. And I think we sort of started, like, okay, let's try and do 30 guys. And then I started moving through it and was like, let's do 40. And I was like, actually, let's do 50 because you start working through the different rosters and different teams. And there are a bunch of guys that that could be available. And so it was a fascinating exercise. You know, a lot of what I'm trying to do now is, you know, operate in the same way that a pro personnel department would operate at different times of the calendar.

7:13And so, like in the preseason, I'm watching all the preseason film and trying to identify undrafted free agents or younger guys that are playing well, that might be available. after cuts or on the trade market in late August. And then like now pro personnel departments are doing this exact kind of thing where they're looking through potential players that they could add to help them if they're a team that's in the mix.

7:33Robert Mays: 50 seems aggressive, but if you go through the entire list, obviously there's some exceptions, like all the bucks on here, that I'd be surprised. I'd be surprised right now if the bucks were sellers. I think they are in a spot where the way the defense is playing with how winnable the division feels with the tenuous status of especially the coaching staff, I'd be surprised if we saw the Bucs sell guys. I did make this list when they were 1-5, though, just for the record. I'm not putting that on you. I'm just saying the aggressiveness of it. We can go from 50 to 43 if we take the Bucs off here, but that's still 43 guys.

8:06Robert Mays: And then Alex Highsmith is another one where, like, oh, man, if you're the Steelers, just take the compic. Like, who cares? Like, you're a 5-2 team. Like, you're good enough to warrant it. Every other team that's on here, I think you could make an argument that they should be listening to some of these calls. And we'll get to it from a team-by-team basis. There are a couple teams specifically that I'm curious about. But before we do all of that and speculate wildly about how the next two weeks are going to go, let's go back and revisit the deals that happened yesterday. Quentin Nelson traded to the Seattle Seahawks a third and a fifth.

8:38Robert Mays: Everything about this is awesome for Seattle. I love it. I love it. It's such a great trade. And for Seattle, it's kind of a no-brainer. The one kind of lingering question I would have about it is if he gets extended and what that number looks like. But if you look at their finances next year, they could probably pull it off. We can get into some of the specifics of that as we move forward. But when you saw Quentin Nelson to Seattle specifically, what was your first reaction? Well, my first reaction was like, I can't believe I didn't put Seattle as a fit because I was sitting there going through fits.

9:09And I'm like, well, he's going to play left guard. And, you know, Gray Zabel's been playing there. Like how would they fit it all together? And so I ended, I literally was this close to putting them on as a fit and I didn't do it. And then they make the trade and I'm like, well, obviously there's going to reshuffle everything and make it work. Whether that's putting Gray's able at center, putting in my right guard. I don't know if they would play Quentin Nelson at right guard, considering he's never played there in the league. I think it's almost, I think it's almost training for that guy. It's like, yeah, put him at the spot.

9:34I think it's almost certain.

9:36Robert Mays: Yeah. That's able to be at right guard. I mean, it's, yeah, it's a seniority thing. Zabel's been there for what? He's been there for 17 plus three playoff games, plus six regular season games. We're at 26 games. I think Quentin Nelson hasn't beat there. And he's able to put it on the right side in college a little bit. So that one to me is, even if it wasn't apparent because of that reason, obviously, as you think about it for more than two minutes, it starts to make sense. And for this team specifically and where they are, I think there's a lot of layers to this. The irony in the Seahawks kind of eschewing guard as like a priority position for a very long time and then drafting one in the first round and then doing this with Quentin Nelson in back-to-back years.

10:13Robert Mays: But if you look at the current state of Seattle's offense and what they need to start doing to get back to where they want to be, which is, to me, just a championship-caliber unit when paired with the defense. Obviously, the bar you need to clear is lower than it is with some other teams. Being able to run the ball consistently was the biggest part of that. And hopefully that'll be aided by getting Price back, by getting Charbonnet back. But, I mean, you just traded for the best guard of his generation, like a guy that's still playing at an incredibly high level, a legitimate weapon in the run game.

10:44Robert Mays: And so fit, need, vision, play style. You're just adding like another all-time ass kicker to this team, which like they didn't have enough of them. So an incredibly fun move all across the board. And the Seahawks have an extra third coming next year for the Nolan Teasley hire. And they have two fifths, a fourth, and a sixth that they're all going to get as comp picks for all the free agents that they lost. and so they can make this deal with the three and the five and in theory lose none of the standard amount of draft capital that a team would be bringing into a given draft so on every single level this one this one bangs i like this a lot yeah yes to all of that you know the big issue with the seattle offense run game wise is their offensive line has not been blocking particularly well and obviously like you know they came out on sunday against the chiefs and like it was good enough to win, but you know, they needed 41 carries to get 153 yards.

11:36It was still negative point one, one EPA per design rush in that game. So they needed more. And Quinn Nelson's the kind of guy where like, you bring him in and put him on offensive line. He will single-handedly make you a better rushing offense, like just run behind that guy, because like you said, he's an absolute weapon. So Seattle's 31st in EPA per design rush on the season. They have to be better in that area to get more out of Sam Darnold. Like you have to pair him with a viable running game to get the best version of him. Right now there's no running game. And as a result, you know, they're getting into a lot of known passing situations.

12:07Sam Darnold looks uncomfortable for the most part. And that's when you get bad Sam, right? You get some of these turnovers, you get some of these bad decisions. So I just think it makes a ton of sense and they didn't have to give up a round two pick to make it happen. So I loved this trade for the Seahawks.

12:24Robert Mays: Be curious to see what happens next off season. They have like$25 million in effective cap space. If you look at it right now, they'd save some money if they moved on from Jaron Reed, who's going to be 35 years old. Cooper Cup is making a lot of money for them next year. It's 18 million bucks. That's one where is it an offseason conversation of, hey, we love you. We'd love to keep you here. You're good for the building. We can't pay you$18 million against the cap this season. I'm sorry. And then what happens with Darnold? He's got a big number next year. He's got two void years tacked on the end of that.

12:55Robert Mays: so if they do restructure it, they would be able to save a lot of money in the short term, but do we get a down-and-all extension in order to get some relief there? Where do they find a little bit more money if they do want to keep Quentin Nelson? Because we know what the number is now. What's Skaransky making? I mean, it's$25 million plus, and I have to assume that at this point, even this deep into his career, if I'm Quentin Nelson's agent, the conversation starts with him being the highest-paid guard in the league, and so whether Seattle chooses to do that or they go the comp pick route with it, I'd be curious, but I'd be surprised.

13:27Robert Mays: This reminds me a little bit of the Leonard Williams thing, where if you're going to go out and get a player like this at the deadline, and he's probably going to be central to who you are, how you feel on offense, all of that stuff. My assumption is they'd want to keep him around beyond this year. Yeah, and it's how they've operated, right? Like you mentioned, Leonard Williams, Rashid Shahid, they traded for and extended. So it's like when they do make these deals, they are a team that typically likes to extend and get value on what they've traded away by keeping that player long term. So, but those are like, those are future problems right now.

13:58You're bringing in a player that's going to make your run game significantly better. And I just love that for Seattle because it's been the biggest issue with their offense. And then you kind of microwave it a little bit where you're adding one of the best run blockers in the league while also getting some help back at running back. And you feel like that can maybe get the offense back to a place where it just has to be good enough. Because after watching that game on Sunday night, like this is the type of defense, like Like a 2015 Broncos, like a 2000 Ravens, like they are that type of defense that can carry a team back to the Super Bowl.

14:28So you just need to reach a threshold offensively. And I think this is a move that points you in that direction.

14:33Robert Mays: And I even think if they hadn't done this, they would probably be on their way to doing it again with getting the backs back. Anthony Bradford had missed a couple games in first bodies. He can be in pass protection. I think that their run game was going to be better with him in the fold. Well, now it's Quentin Nelson instead of Anthony Bradford as the guy that you're adding to your offense and wide. And so got to feel really good about that if you're Seattle. And I'm excited to see how it takes shape. What it feels like, what he looks like, how quickly he looks good, all of that kind of stuff.

14:59Yeah. And Charles Cross is going to miss some time. They're left tackle with a ankle injury. So you kind of offset that loss a little bit by bringing in, you know, a very high caliber player to play on that side of the line. If it works out the way that we're projecting.

15:13Robert Mays: I mean, I liked the move two off seasons ago when they brought in Josh Jones because their swing tackle situation for a while had been brutal. And he's somebody that when he's been asked to play, you can get by with him. And so he's there again. And I think that they'll be able to kind of weather that storm in a way that not every team would be able to losing your high price left tackle at this point in the season. And Josh Jones will be better playing next to Quentin Nelson. Yeah. There you go. Yeah. Let's stick in the NFC West here. DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers for a fourth round pick.

15:42Robert Mays: You know that the Bears season is going well. When I saw that come across the timeline and I was like, God damn it. Like, you know, that's that's how the season is unfolding when that's my reaction to the move. It's a great one for the Niners. I understand why he would want to be back there. I mean, Chris Kisurik is still there. You know, they're still going to ask the same things of the defensive line, the infrastructure, even if they're playing more even front stuff. Very similar to what it was when he left. So I get why he would want to be there. But for the Niners, this is a no brainer. You trade a fourth round pick for a guy who's still productive at a position of need, who you remove some of the guesswork.

16:16Robert Mays: like sometimes going from one system to the other where you're going to ask a guy to play that attacking style and he's never done it before can't do we have a guy that can do this do we think that he's going to fit with who we want to be well yeah i i think he's going to be able to take to it pretty well considering this is how he grew up in the nfl yeah no projection necessary you know san francisco has not gotten enough pressure and it kind of all came to a head in that in that falcons game in week seven you know then 8.8 pressure rate against michael penix it It was the lowest pressure rate for any team in a game this season.

16:49And that's the one thing you had to do against Michael Penix. Like he does not operate well when he faces pressure and they were not able to get home in any sort of capacity. They had three pressures all game. And so you bring in a player in DeForest Buckner who has been an elite interior pass rusher for his entire career and you start trying to jumpstart what has been, you know, a limited pass rush so far this season. You know, Alfred Collins is on IR. CJ West is on IR, both interior defensive linemen they drafted in 2025. Nick Bosa has been out the last five games of the calf injury. They just don't have enough juice.

17:23And, you know, with Bosa coming back, you put DeForest Buckner into the mix, and you probably avoid a situation like they saw against the Falcons, where they just were not able to generate any pressure, and Penix was standing back there with as much time as he wanted. They had to bring in somebody. I still think they could be in the mix for edge rush help as well, because they just have mountains of calf space, and they're in a position to be aggressive and there are some edge rushers available. But that's an area of the roster that they just had to improve. You do it on the interior with DeForest Buckner.

17:51Maybe you add another edge rusher and you can turn this into a unit that can actually create pressure consistently because right now they're 19th in the league in pressure rate.

17:58Robert Mays: The Falcons game specifically, you go back and you watch that game, he's getting the ball out immediately. I mean, that was the game plan from the start. And so there are versions of the Falcons offense in playing against Michael Penix where those pressure numbers are going to look abysmal in some games because of just the way the offense is operating. I think some of that is what was happening on Sunday. There were also instances where he was dropping back and had four seconds to throw and literally went through all of his reads and then still had time to stand back there. So it was a little bit of both, I think.

18:26Robert Mays: I don't think it's as bad as it was on Sunday. I think it's a unit that absolutely still could have used re-informance, especially on the interior. You look at the edge room right now, and I understand what you're saying, but when Bosa comes back, you're going to have some rotation of Bosa, Mikel Williams, Romello Haidt, Keon White, who's been playing inside-outside. And then now, I mean, what Grayson Halton has been for them, we've talked about him a lot, it changes your season in a way. And especially before you make the Buckner trade, it's allowed you to get by this year in a way that you might not have been able to after losing Collins and C.J.

18:59Robert Mays: West. And so now you go three deep defensive tackle with guys that you feel really good about with Osa, Buckner, and Grayson Halton. You have a four-man rotation hopefully on the edge when Bosa comes back. now you're in a spot where you're seven eight deep along the defensive line you combine that with what you're getting out of the secondary and we know what they have at linebacker you're cooking now it's really the one thing like one more body you probably wanted on defense the offense and the injuries is another consideration but i completely understand this from the niners perspective i completely understand why this is the type of player you go out and get and again when you part of the the risk with these sorts of things is that we don't know how these guys are going to take these situations and sometimes we don't know if guys even want to be there and I think the Colts consciously wanted to send him to a place that he wanted to go and so so many of these things line up for a mid-season trade in ways they don't always and I think that's exciting if you're the Niners yeah 100 % I mean just watching DeForest Buckner's post-game scrums in the locker room like that man wanted to be anywhere else literally anywhere else and we talked to James Boyd on our athletic live show on Sunday night and he was just saying that like DeForest Buckner is typically like super professional and like thoughtful and he had never really answered questions in that manner which just told James that you know it was time so but the lack of projection is a part of it I think the interesting thing to consider is like they only gave up a fourth round pick and that's that was close to the value I was expecting but there are like a million teams including your bears that need interior defensive line help he He was a pricier player, you know,$13 million base salary.

20:37So like not every team was going to be able to be in the mix to take on the full remaining number there. But considering how many teams need interior defensive line out, the Packers, the Vikings, you know, the Giants, like you can go down the list. You know, was there a market to get a little bit more than a fourth round pick potentially? And because of that, it's a reason why I really love this trade for the Niners, for the Colts. I was kind of lukewarm on it.

20:58Robert Mays: Yeah. I also assume part of it is, again, I don't know exactly what the conversation was like between the organization and DeForest Buckner. And but this idea of like, well, they should have held out and they should have gotten more. I think they're trying to do right by a guy who has been a franchise. That's fair. Stone for multiple years. Sometimes there is a human element to this, which we'll get to when we talk about Jonathan Taylor. But I understand the desire and the need to make these moves in kind of a cold, calculated, heartless way to get the most you possibly can. That isn't the best interest of your football team.

21:29Robert Mays: But I also think at times it's hard to operate that way. and it's on the margins. The idea of like, well, if we waited a week, we could have gotten a third from a shitty team. I guess so. I mean, I guess you could have. Sometimes I think you're trying to make sure you're doing right by a guy who's given you a lot. And I think that's exactly what DeForest Buckner has been for the Colts. Yeah, and that's a fair point because you send both of these veteran franchise cornerstones to true contenders where they can go try and compete for a Super Bowl. So let me ask you this, just going back to the edge rusher conversation.

22:02I understand where you're coming from, but if you just drop Khalil Mack into that Niners defense, you're telling me that doesn't that doesn't excite you a little bit if it's like, let's say, a fifth round pick.

22:13Robert Mays: I think it's about how when you think Bosa will be back. Yeah, I think that's the most important thing. Like, McCell Williams has only played a game or two. I got we just haven't had a sense of what this group looks like together if and when Bosa is coming back. If you're concerned about what that's going to look like, and also like Jalen Duggar plays down on the edge for them a little bit, you're getting pretty deep here with all of those players that you can play on the edge. And so to me, it would be solely a question of when you think Bosa will be here and what sort of version of him you're getting.

22:41Robert Mays: If that's a question, maybe you do throw a pick at somebody else and bolster that. But right now, I think if I were John Lynch, if I were he Morris, if I were Kyle Shanahan, And I would feel pretty comfortable with the group that we currently have if Bosa's going to be back sooner rather than later. Yeah, I think that's fair. You mentioned it. This is arms race in the NFC West. I mean, I just love these teams going blow for blow to try to make their teams better at this stage. And now I think the question will be like, what do the Rams do? Is there a receiver trade out there that the Rams would make?

23:11Robert Mays: I'm sure we might hit that a little bit later, but it's kind of the last remaining domino to fall with the NFC West moves that I'd be on the horizon. With the Rams, it's worth, I know we'll get into this, but with the Rams, it's worth noting that they have like$900 ,000 in cap space. So they're going to have to get a little creative. It's not like they have 20 pending free agents this year either. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about some other Colts who might be on the move. The NBA season is here. When you turn on the games, turn on The Athletic Live on YouTube.

23:42Robert Mays: Become part of the show in the interactive chat, along with host Zach Harper, Kofi Oboa, and the Athletic Slam Dunk NBA staff. The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Check it out now and subscribe on YouTube. Football season has arrived, and with the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card, you earn an unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase, including at the stadium or at home watching on a brand new TV. Score big with unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase. Visit usbank.com slash smartlycard to learn more. The creditor and issuer of this card is U.S. Bank National Association, pursuant to a license from Visa USA, Inc.

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26:24Robert Mays: All right, I wanted to ask you about, you know, three guys that we think might be traded next, but maybe it's best to do it with, like, three buckets of guys. Let's just start with who on the Indianapolis Colts might be the next guy on the move. like are we how much of a fire sale are we seeing here it's hilarious i made this joke yesterday it's like when there's a one in six team in your fantasy league and you just start sending them completely disrespectful trade requests that's how it feels like fans are treating the colts right now like they're grave robbers just looking at the roster i saw somebody yesterday that was a chiefs fan being like why can't we have josh downs and bernard ryman it's like everybody take it easy you all right yeah at a certain point you need to fill the roster yeah yeah 100 i mean so i have three names here that were that were on my you know big board that i think are interesting to discuss obviously jonathan taylor and there's teams that need a running back and like obviously he's going to be very attractive to a lot of teams from a draft pick standpoint josh downs is on an expiring deal they have not extended him you know and there's a lot of teams that need a receiver And then the other one would be Grover Stewart, veteran interior defensive lineman who's on an expiring deal.

27:36Those are the three I could I could see them moving. I think the question is like, OK, and I'd love to get your thoughts on this. OK, so they fire Chris Ballard, the general manager. They keep Shane Steichen the head coach. In theory, they're continuing to evaluate Shane Steichen over the remainder of this season. But then you're putting him in a spot where you're removing all of your best players from the roster. So how can you really evaluate him? So if you continue to strip the roster and you trade Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor and Grover Stewart, let's say, can you really evaluate what he's doing?

28:07Is he just a placeholder for the remainder of the season? Because you're going to move on from him. If you're going to move on from him, why wouldn't you package the GM and the coach together? Why would you separate those two by firing Chris Ballard early in the season and hang on to Shane Steichen? Like, those are a lot of questions that I have about sort of the direction of the Colts and how they're operating amid this, you know, quote unquote fire sale.

28:26Robert Mays: It's a great question. And my, again, this is no inside information, just like outside perception of what the thought process might be is that they don't want to fire Shane Steichen, and that's why they kept him around. But like you said, if you're even slightly on the fence or if there is, if this is an evaluation period, what you're giving him to work with here, you're setting the guy up to fail. And so I wonder how much of it is we've kind of already decided we want him to be the coach, And it's only if this gets really, really bad that we'd have to change that decision. Because otherwise, how are you going to get a proper, honest evaluation of what he of the job he's doing if you're going to do this to the roster?

29:12Robert Mays: Exactly. Exactly. And I do understand where they're coming from, because Shane Steichen is a coach. And this is like a litmus test I like to use. If he was fired, he would get to the top of the list for a bunch of teams that need a head coach. Like he would definitely be in the mix for jobs immediately in the same way that like Kevin Stefanski was in the mix for jobs immediately. So if that's the case, you probably want to hang on to him. But like you said, you're setting him up for failure if you move on from a bunch of these guys. So I just think it's a sort of a weird situation there. Do they, I think the question is, do they continue this and move on from some more of these guys?

29:52It feels like, you know, the three I mentioned are the ones that teams could be interested in. And primarily Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor. Like those are very good players who could help out a bunch of offenses in the league. There's, like we mentioned, teams in need of receivers, teams in need of running backs. And those are two guys that could, you know, have huge impacts, in particular Jonathan Taylor.

30:14Robert Mays: It's come out that they're hesitant to trade Jonathan Taylor, which I understand. I mean, he's the most visible player associated with the franchise now that you've traded Quentin Nelson and DeForest Buckner. And DeForest Buckner and Quentin Nelson were aging players that might not be on the roster next year. Both of them were pending free agents. Jonathan Taylor is under contract for what? Two more years? Yeah. And then he's got$15 million base salary next year, but it's not guaranteed. So he's under contract through 2028. So he's somebody that theoretically could be part of whatever the next version of this team looks like.

30:45Robert Mays: that's one where it's tough because by the time you're going to be ready to even almost compete he's going to be a 29 year old or 29 year old running back or somebody hitting free agency exactly so for as central to the identity of the franchise and the fact that he's like a known star quantity all of those things and i get that i get that if you're carly urcy gordon sitting there in that room being like what kind of message does it send if we're trading away these guys but again you did it with Quentin Nelson. And so I think the pragmatic prudent choice is probably to get what you can for Jonathan Taylor now.

31:20Robert Mays: But I understand the human element on the other side of that. Right. Because if they are going into full rebuild, right, with a new general manager, you're talking about a star running back as a luxury piece and you're not getting maximum value out of a star running back if you're rebuilding the entire roster around him. Like he's still going to be very good, but you're not going to get the full potential of what that player could be, which we've seen when they've built a very good roster around Jonathan Taylor. So I think you're exactly right in terms of the approach. The question is, who's going to be in the mix there?

31:50Because the one team that I thought would be very interesting was the Seahawks. But they've already made this deal for Quentin Nelson. And, you know, would you see the team, a team make like two separate trades if they if that was really close, maybe they package those guys together. You know, the other team I had listed as a fit for Jonathan Taylor was the Giants, although their running backs you know played pretty well on sunday in a victory so those two teams but is seattle even you know in the mix now after trading for quentin nelson i can't imagine seattle would

32:22Robert Mays: be i mean you just spent a first round pick on a running back let's see what that guy can give you and you're getting charbonnet back the two teams i would throw out that would be adventures to me the vikings i think would make sense aaron jones consistently banged up jordan mason is a fine player but if you're looking for just a path forward on offense considering where what you've looked like over the first seven weeks does jonathan taylor give you that your offensive line is a good group can you supercharge the run game and just be like that's what we're going to lean on with this defense and try to see if that gets us through and then the bangles like if you just drop him in there and even if chase brown is like a solid player you know what p what p ryan is as a role player can you just say hey we think we have a shot right now this guy would completely change the overall feel of our running game like this team does not get explosive runs and so adding somebody like this where he's an explosive run game potentially onto himself that's something that i would probably consider if i were cincinnati depending on what the price looked like yeah i like that fit and those are the other two teams i had listed as running back need i had the Packers in there initially but this was pre Josh Jacobs coming back so that's not going to be a potential fit there so those but those are the teams you know that we that we've discussed when you look at the Giants and the Browns those are two teams that as you've listened to the reporting this week and as you hear some of the scuttlebutt and whatever the backroom rumors look like it's like oh well you know they're winning you know they're leading the division or they're tied with the best record in their divisions are they going to be buyers how do you feel about The team's in that position making moves to like add pieces at the trade deadline, because in my opinion, it almost never works out.

34:02Robert Mays: If you're Jonathan Taylor is a slightly different proposition, because if you're the giant specifically, this would be an Avenue to adding the difference, making running back. You would have loved to have drafted this year before Jeremiah love went at number three overall. But so that, that I do get, if you're trying to do this on a multi-year level, like that, that's fine. Like that, I get that. but just for this year specifically I don't know maybe I should be believing in the Giants and the Browns more than I am but I just remember deals like multiple deals like the Panthers made when they were surprising NFC South contenders midway through the season and then we look back at that a year later and it's like why would you do that like what those you are not in a position you're not a finishing stroke away from being contender here why is it necessary to add players at the deadline.

34:50Robert Mays: It's kind of how I would feel about both the Giants and the Browns making swings right now for guys like that. Yeah, I'm totally in agreement. Like, I feel like you should view the trade deadline and being active at that time of the year as a means to like find that last piece to get you over the hump. And it's you're never like it's an adage. You're never one truly one piece away. But those are the teams that should be considering it. Right. And we feel like Seattle can win a Super Bowl. We feel like San Francisco can win a Super Bowl. The two teams you mentioned, Cleveland and the Giants, like with where those teams are at with the quarterback position, like I don't think they're in the mix to truly win a championship.

35:27And so then it's up to the front office to be realistic in those situations and soberly look at your roster and where you're at and make sure that you don't make the moves that you're talking about that, you know, are, you know, shooting for the stars when you have no chance of getting there.

35:45Robert Mays: Yeah, I think I have two minds about it. I understand how important winning is to building culture early in a 10-year. And if you think this is going to give you a chance to win a division title, you don't have to give up a ton to do it. You're putting your best foot forward. You're not really mortgaging the future. There's an argument to be made there, and I would hear that argument. I just think that you have to be really smart about where the lines in the sand are price-wise and how far you're willing to go. I will say the Jonathan Taylor thing, again, is a little bit different because we can talk about this a little bit at the end of the show.

36:13Robert Mays: and we discussed some trends recently about trades, but the trade market as a way to access players you wouldn't be able to add otherwise because they're rare players, that's a worthwhile consideration. I think that is something that should be in the back of your mind as you're thinking about a holistic way to build the team. And for the Giants and Jonathan Taylor specifically, that's an argument I'd be willing to hear. Be like, yeah, we're not Super Bowl contenders in 2026, but he's a 27-year-old top five running back and we want a player like that with how we want to play offense. We've seen what they're, I mean, they're running game good with Camp Scadaboo last week.

36:47Robert Mays: If you add like a true dynamic piece back there, what does it mean for this version of the offense and next year's version of the offense? That is at least interesting to me. And so I get that line of thinking. Right. Where do you think Josh Downs makes sense? All right. So here are the fits I had. I mean, I threw this out to you on the Athletic Live when we had our little crossover for two minutes. Kansas City Chiefs. I know you don't love the fit because you don't think that he's exactly what they need from a skill set standpoint. But I think about it a little bit differently. Like watching that game on Sunday against Seattle, like they they just need professional receivers.

37:22Yeah, you know what? Like they need guys that can get open anywhere.

37:27Robert Mays: And yeah, the more I've thought about it, I am open to it. It's mostly just that. I want I think there are two things that come to mind when I'm considering the Chiefs and like the types of receivers that I want. I do think they still need a downfield element that you would not necessarily get with Josh Downs. He's a vertical explosive player in a very specific way, but I don't think you're really taking the top off and you're getting explosive vertical plays. That's not the number one thing he's bringing to the table. And so can you can you be the team that gets more out of Brian Thomas Jr.? Something like that.

37:59Robert Mays: I mean, that's the first place my mind goes. But then I just think about what this team, how much this team has struggled in like true man coverage situations on third down consistently. And that's where he's best. And so if the, even if it's not a perfect one for one fit of like what the offense truly needs, just going out and getting somebody who can get open. Like that is the true selling point of Josh Jones. He can get open and you have a quarterback that can figure it out. I'm sorry. I'm getting there. I've softened my stance on the Josh Johns to the Chiefs thing since Sunday. All right. Because that's kind of how I'm approaching it, right?

38:35Like, I understand that they need, like, Tyquan Thornton goes down. They need that vertical stretch player. There are other guys, even available in the trade market, that might make more sense. You mentioned BTJ, like Jerry Judy. Like, there are guys available that might bring that element. But if Kenneth Walker isn't running for 170 yards in a game, they don't have an offense. That's what was clear on Sunday night. And like, you just need a professional receiver that can get open. And, and Josh Downs is that guy. So I like that fit. I had San Francisco and Seattle included there. San Francia, so banged up at receiver, but they've already made a trade.

39:10So it changes the calculus there. I am coming out with a like revised 2.0 version of the big board where I'm going to adjust fits based off what's happened. Like we mentioned earlier, the bucks, like I'm going to remove a bunch of the bucks guys. I'm going to add some saints guys. So that'll happen. And so I had Seattle here for downs as well, because you mentioned Cooper cup. Rashid Shahid is what he is as a player, but they don't really have like a proper wide receiver too. They might not need it because Jackson, Jackson Smith and Jigba is like the best receiver in the league, but that's interesting.

39:39I think after what you paid for Shahid, I don't think you can justify it. That goes back to like, how do you justify the Rashid Shahid signing then at$17 million a year?

39:50Robert Mays: Like he's, I think you guys got to try to figure that part of it out. Like them trading for a receiver at this point, that would be surprising to me, especially a receiver like this. I just that that would be surprising to me. Torrey Horton's still young. Like, I think that's a group where you just kind of figure it out over the course of the season. And, you know, if Jackson Smith and Jacob is averaging like 170 yards per game, it might not be necessary. One more team here. Pittsburgh Steelers. What do you think? I don't mind it. I mean, he's essentially giving you like a better version of what Roman Wilson was supposed to give you.

40:22Robert Mays: and so if you're looking for again more of a vertical slot player than whatever Jeremy Bernard is I think that would make sense it'd be really funny if they swung for Michael Pittman that didn't work and they were just like out on to the next one yes let's see if we can bring in the other guy from that offense they are they are interested in in the receiver market though so you know I don't I listen to your guy's show on Sunday I love that you're getting there a little bit with Aaron Rogers like he definitely is I think you put it well that he's playing quarterback this year versus previous years where I like you couldn't really like you know describe what he was doing as playing quarterback so the fact that he's willing to push it a little bit and be aggressive I think potentially you're in a position to to make a move there but to me the like the Chiefs fit is the one that I'm I'm fully in on with Josh Downs yeah I like that I mean San Francisco we'll see where they're at they don't have any comp X coming next year they lost like nobody in free agency so it's not like they've got a fifth rounder in the couch cushion somewhere what I like about But the San Francisco part of it is that he's essentially a one-for-one replacement for what Ricky Pearsall was giving you.

41:25Robert Mays: And so you're putting that skill set directly back into the offense. But Strubling might be back at some point. Maybe they're not as urgent at receiver as it might seem like right now. But I'm becoming more and more open to the Chiefs thing. My only concern is if the Chiefs trade for another 5 '9 receiver, I think we might lose Derek. I legitimately think he might just like go on a vision quest and just go out into the wilderness and never come back. And we need him on the show. And so that's the only reason I don't think I'm fully willing to buy into it right now. But Derek is never going to love a 5 '9 receiver, even if he's really good.

42:03Robert Mays: That's never going to happen. But especially for the Chiefs, I think he would lose his mind. He's a sizist. If they traded for another 5 '9 receiver. Let's move on to another team I'm curious about because I think the dynamics of play here are really interesting, and they have three of the top 12 players you listed here. You have Tui Patupelo at five. You have Derwin James at 10 and Khalil Mack at 12. Obviously, the Chargers are a team that you're very familiar with. I think you probably have a beat on their thinking and why they would approach this situation a certain way. The rumblings are that they have no interest in trading anybody or are hesitant to trade people.

42:40Robert Mays: which is not at all surprising, right? I mean, like, is there a staff in the world that could be sitting there at 0-6 and be believing that they would crawl out of it more than a Jim Harbaugh coached team? I think not. Is there a tipping point here in the next couple weeks where you think they would be able to loosen their grip a little bit and we could see a couple of these guys get moved, or at least one of them? There needs to be a tipping point. As far as I'm concerned, they've already crossed that point. they absolutely have i'm not talking about our tipping point i'm talking about their in in the building tipping point i mean if they go to oh and seven they got to take a good hard look at themselves and realize where they're at you know i part of it is i think they believe they put together a really good roster and they want that to come to light but it's clear they did not and they have to face reality at a certain point so i i do i do think there's some middle ground here I put a bunch of chargers in there.

43:39There's some guys that are probably not going to get moved. Like, I don't think they're going to move Tule. I think they're eventually going to come to terms on an extension there.

43:46Robert Mays: That's what I was going to ask. The fact that they haven't yet. I mean, do they want to put a tag on that guy? I mean, I guess at this point he might be worth it. But that's one where the fact that they haven't figured out the money yet, that leads me to believe that if you wanted to be aggressive as another team, is there a price that might make sense? I would call. I mean, like, I would absolutely call about Tule. no doubt about it. I think it's Halloween and he still doesn't have a deal. Like, I don't know. And it doesn't seem like we're any closer than we were in August when he was fake holding out.

44:16Right, right. So, I mean, the tag is 29 million. And so I think the charges are comfortable with that number. So you tag him and try and negotiate something afterward. And frankly, like he was really, really good in 25. And I think he's carried that level of play into into this season. Production numbers are down slightly, but I see a difference making player. And I think he's proving that he can be that that top edge if you build the the defense correctly around him you know I think there's a middle ground where they can move on from you know expiring veterans right and not like guys that they view as sort of building block pieces you know like a Thule like a day on Henley you know Derwin is interesting to me because he's got 17 and a half million guaranteed next year and what team is going to trade for him at that price next year it has to be a team that's going to use him correctly.

45:05Like he has to be playing primarily nickel. He has to be playing close to the line of scrimmage. If you're trading for him to play as a, as a back end, too deep safety, he's not going to be worth 17 and a half million dollars. So the expiring veterans are the ones where I feel like they could look at and say, okay, we can make these moves and still give us enough talent to like try and salvage something from this season. Dalvin Tomlinson is on an expiring deal, interior defensive lineman, Dante Jackson, cornerback is on an expiring deal and should be interesting to teams that are in need of corners like the bills like the lions and then khalil mac is on an expiring deal he is like a leader and they would view him as like a big culture piece and a and frankly a building block piece but he's 35 years old and he's contemplated retirement like pretty much every season over the last five years so those are three names where i could i feel like they could get to a place like all right, we can trade these guys, accrue some capital, but still have enough here to try and salvage six wins.

46:04The interesting part of it is, if they go like 2-15, is that a situation where you can just bring the head coach back and bring the GM back and maybe make a move at offensive coordinator again and keep this thing rolling forward? I don't know about that. So I think there is some incentive for leadership there to try and salvage something out of this season, try and get the offense like operating as a professional outfit at some point over the second half of the season and if you get to 6 and 11 there's enough equity there from those first two seasons with Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh to try and explain that away to the fan base I think

46:42Robert Mays: I think that's 100 % right and I also just think for them specifically and maybe I'm reading too much into this with like the way the Harbaugh's brain probably works but even the idea of trading Khalil Mack, he's doing everything he can to make sure this season doesn't slip through their fingers. Do you think that's the message they want to send to the locker room sitting at 0 and 6 being like, yeah, we're going to ship off some some like really some Hall of Fame caliber veterans, but we need all of you guys to be bought in. Like, I just think that there I don't necessarily ascribe to that thinking.

47:14Robert Mays: Like, I think that you can do two things at once. I think that's what his job should be. But for him specifically, I wonder if those aren't the moves that they want to be making because they might run counter to whatever the messaging has had to be based on how this season has started. You know him better than I do. No, no. 100 % a fair point. I just think he's the most attractive piece available. You know, when you look at these expiring veterans and if you're really trying to maximize value on the trade market, he's a guy you have to consider. but they want to try and salvage something out of this season.

47:49So to me, like, here's where I'm at with it. It would be a huge mistake to not sell at this deadline. I agree. Plain and simple. That doesn't mean they're going to avoid it though. They could potentially do it, even though everyone looking at it says this could be a huge mistake.

48:05Robert Mays: The next team I wanted to hit, because I do think this is the team where I would, I would be considering some of these moves is the Cardinals. If I'm the bills right now, I'm calling about Buddebaker immediately, like right now. Like he to me is the sort of piece like what he's bringing from a physicality standpoint on the back end is something they've lacked for a really long time. You drop a guy like that into their current defense. That's one where it's almost a no brainer. He's a 30 year old player. He's got one year left on his deal. There's no guaranteed money left on that deal. So I would not be surprised.

48:36Robert Mays: And that's been a situation where there's been tension between him and the Cardinals contractually recently over the last couple of years as there's been so much change there. So Arizona specifically with him and then Josh Sweat is like the edge rusher that I think Khalil Mack, if we're doing like the Goldilocks thing, two or two below two is probably not going to be traded. Khalil Mack is 35 years old. Josh Sweat is just right. like that's that's the one that I think is both realistic and you could talk yourself into being if not a needle moving piece then somebody that could be impactful for you over the final eight weeks of the season yeah 100 he was what 14th on my big board um you know they did just sign him to that free agent deal of course he was you know pairing back up with Jonathan Gannon when Gannon was still the head coach there so there's going to be a significant amount of dead money if they do trade Josh wet, because they just signed that deal like a, a year ago.

49:32Um, but he's interesting. I had, so I had a bunch of teams for sweat as far as fits, the Patriots, the Browns, the bears, the Niners, we've discussed their, their edge situation. So you're kind of off on that. And then I had Dallas in there as well as a potential fit. Um, but yeah, there's, there's a, there's a few like interesting edge rushers. When you're talking about trying to find that middle ground you know will mcdonald with the jets you know he's cheap this year because he's on the fourth year of his rookie deal he's got a specific player i don't think he'd be everybody's flavor yeah yeah a little bit of a more of a speed rusher i had yaya diaby on here because i think he's playing at a super high level but we said bucks are probably not dealing nolan smith we haven't talked about the eagles yet you know nolan smith is on an expiring contract with the eagles um caleb on chase on another kind of like particular type edge rusher with sort of speed not going to give you much in the run game um Jermaine Johnson with Tennessee we haven't discussed the Titans they could be moving on for a bunch of guys um Dorrance Armstrong with Washington kind of moving further down the board here uh Baron Browning another uh Cardinal um and then Carl Granderson's a guy that I had on the list I didn't put him on the board because at that point the Saints were I hadn't really decided if the France were Saints were frisky or not um i think that we can sort of unequivocally say at this point they are not frisky um but i like granderson a lot and he's probably going to move into the 2.0 version of the board so some some potential edge options for sure yeah granderson's interesting i just wonder

51:03Robert Mays: the saints are so thin behind i mean it's right now you're dealing with chase young granderson and cam jordan and like what else what else like at that point it's gonna be like hard to have a depth uh the eagles are obviously all of these guys i'd be calling about and i think the three guys that you have mentioned up near the top of the board make the most sense oh joe mo's hitting free agency i can't imagine they can afford to keep them like i just i can't imagine they can afford to keep them like i yeah three big contracts in one position group is just tough to do i just don't know how that happens and maybe you offset that but i was gonna say maybe you offset that because you're not paying a lot of edge guys but they just paid grenard and so like i just don't know how that i don't know how the math on that works and so i that's something that i would absolutely i don't i don't know if they if they actually operate in the world of math though i think they just they just chuck all money into future seasons and pretend like it doesn't exist apparently i mean like as somebody who studies the cap like their cap every time i have to study an eagles contract my brain explodes because it's all option bonus out to oblivion every single contract is tied up in these option bonuses that are due on september 1st which gives them the option of like June 1 in guys or trading guys after June 1st, i.e.

52:15AJ Brown. But it's like no like no other team is operating this way. And it's like specifically them. And they are just in a completely different world than most teams when it comes to the cap.

52:25Robert Mays: I mean, it's something the NFLPA, I think, is going to be raising here pretty soon about these option bonuses that are hitting in September and what they're doing to the players. I think that's a point of contention here coming soon. But yeah, at a certain point, though, that there is a breaking point. you can't pay every defensive player$20 million and Tariq Wollin is going to get need to pay is going to need to get paid soon they're gonna have so many expensive pieces on that side of the ball I I feel like Ojomo might be one of those guys that just becomes the next version of Milton Williams and so I'd be sniffing around him if I were one of these teams and I know it hasn't been the best stretch for Tariq Wollin but he's absolutely another player I'd be calling about he's not a one-year deal I mean it's at this point like they've got corners they can roll Jonathan Jones out there and whoever it's going to get ugly there no matter what you might as well get something for a guy like Tariq Wallen who's obviously really talented and if you're trying to take a swing I think it makes a ton of sense the team would be interesting uh the Lions are the Lions at corner I think are worth mentioning and the other I had them as a fit the line that the Lions team that I would throw out there is uh the other guy for the Lions just bring Meek Robertson back man just just give him a ring and just bring him back like I he's been able to play multiple positions for you and so the lions at corner even with uh obviously they get brian branch back last week and it sounds like kirby joseph is practicing again so we'll see when he gets back i still think they need to look for a safety i think that i listen like two teams like detroit and buffalo just need to be adding professional defensive backs oh buffalo like i again i just think the buddha baker should be there tomorrow just put buddha baker there tomorrow and just see how it goes.

54:06Robert Mays: We're going to take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a few more of these guys and a few more of these situations. State fair food is getting smaller and pricier. We'll have room for fried cookies. Okay. You never overspend on food. What's your deal? What's his deal? He went to Metro and got$450 in value on the new Samsung Galaxy A37 5G for free and no activation fees. Free phone? Oh, sign me up. Get that more for your money feeling only on Metro by T-Mobile. Bring your number and activate$40 period plan. $450 based on device discount waived activation fee. Not available if with Metro or T-Mobile in the past 180 days.

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55:51Robert Mays: All right, so you mentioned Tennessee. What do we think about Jeffrey Simmons?

55:59It's an interesting situation. He's number one on my board because obviously he's an incredible player. They just extended him. So you're talking about like$21 million in dead money in, in 2027, if they trade him, but is this team going anywhere fast? But we,

56:16Robert Mays: here's my pushback on that. We turn this stuff around so quickly in the NFL. It turns around so quickly in the NFL. He's 28 years old, right? 29. Yeah. 29. So, I don't know. I, the idea that he's your best player, I don't know enough about the dynamics to know like how central he is to the building and things like that, but I think it's pretty central, right? But it's a first year staff. And so I think that cuts both ways. It's a first year staff that hasn't been with him the entire time he's been there, but it's a first, but it's also a first year staff that do you want to be blowing this thing up in year one?

56:54Robert Mays: I guess the Jets thing. That's the Jets, The stuff that happened with the Jets, I think, is notable. I think for a few different reasons. The idea that a team would be willing to do that, and then the other part of it is I think the Quentin Williams price tag affects the Jeffrey Simmons trade. Simmons is older, but, I mean, Quentin went for a one and a two. I think you could talk yourself into Simmons being worth less than that because of the age. Really? Okay. But the other, the key difference to me, I mean, that's what I would be doing if I were calling. I'd be like, hey, Quentin Williams went for a one and a two.

57:28Robert Mays: I'm not trading a one and a two for a 29 year old player. Like I'm just not going to do that. I'll give you a one and a three and I want a five back, you know, something like that. Like, I think that probably, I think that's a reasonable place to land if you're having that conversation. I think the key difference though, between where the jets were at last trade deadline and where the Titans are. Well, I was going to say it's the Titans have a quarterback already. Do they? I think that's probably the question, right? Like if you're the Titans, are you in a spot where we should just be acquiring as much draft capital as possible in order to give ourselves flexibility?

58:04Robert Mays: I guess that's where I land with this. If you're a Borgonzi and if you're the organization, if there's even an inkling of doubt in your mind that you could pull the plug on Cam Ward after this season, is it worth just saying, hey, we just need to accrue as many draft picks as possible and give ourselves as many avenues as possible. If that is part of the thinking, then I could understand wanting to deal him even after signing him in the summer. Right. So here's my issue with the Titans. You bring in a new staff and then you go crazy in free agency, right? They sign Elante Taylor. Works every time, by the way.

58:43Every time. It's never failed. But you're trying to jumpstart something in year one of the Robert Sala regime, right? None of it has really worked. like the elante taylor thing blows my mind because i loved him as uh as a free agent i think he was a top 20 player in my top 150 free agents they're not using him the way that he needs to be used to be worth the money they gave him he's literally not played in the slot at all and he turned into a 19 how can you play him there if you're paying him 20 something million dollars a year it's why it never made sense to begin with i agree but you're watching the film from last year with him in staley's defense in new orleans and the reason he was good is because he was playing a ton in the slot like that's why he was a good player and then so they the way staley was using him was a ton in the slot and then they were playing a bunch of press which is how he can be successful they have him playing exclusively on the outside and they're playing all this off quarters coverage and he's just not good at that so you spend almost 20 million dollars in a player that's now like a healthy scratch every week they spent on wandel robinson they spent on cordo flott you're obviously trying to compete this year with the way you spent you don't compete and now you're in a situation We're like, all right, what do we do?

59:49Well, we spent all this money and we tried to put together a competitive roster. We're not competitive. So do we truly blow it up and trade Jeffrey Simmons and try and start over? The bad part for the staff is the clock doesn't start back at year one. You're in year two and you're going to be judged accordingly. So it creates like a sort of a messy situation. I would never recommend to a new staff to come in and spend that much in free agency because it creates expectations that are completely unnecessary. If you're a little bit more pragmatic in terms of how you approach year one, and spread that money over a bunch of different players and try and find some cheap, productive players, then you can sort of build it on a specific timeline.

1:00:28The alternative is that this happens, and now you're like, all right, well, what do we do? Because clearly the roster's not good enough to compete, and now you don't even know if you have a quarterback.

1:00:37Robert Mays: It's a rudderless organization. I think that we can pretty easily say that. I mean, truly, they're changing the executive leadership every six months. I don't think there is a cohesive vision. And the best recent example of a team doing this in a single offseason when they had no business doing it was the Titans two years ago.

1:01:02Robert Mays: I just don't understand how this continues to happen. This is an expectations issue for me, clearly. When you have a player like this, and again, there's so many downstream effects. And like, I mean, the owner, when you have a player where the owner is going to have to be involved in whether the player gets traded, there are just so many things that come into play there. I don't know if they even want to. There hasn't been a lot of reporting about it. Like, it hasn't been a situation where we've got a bunch of guys being like, oh, yeah, you know, he's he's probably available. I think this is all kind of a speculation because they're bad.

1:01:34Robert Mays: But if I were teams in need of defensive pieces, I don't know. Like the GM of the Chicago Bears. I absolutely would be calling and seeing what it would take to get a guy like this because it's I get you don't want to give up big time draft capital for some of these guys and the idea of giving a fourth round pick for DeForest Buckner feels palatable in the moment. But there's also a reason that these are the guys typically available at the trade deadline. Like they're not difference making players. They're not cornerstone pieces. They're finishing pieces. If a cornerstone piece is available in the trade market at this stage in the calendar, you owe it to yourself to make the call.

1:02:16Robert Mays: Like, it's a lot to give up, but it's a lot to give up for a reason. Yeah, yeah, 100%. Listen, they should be listening. But again, like, this is kind of goes back to all of the conversations we've been having. There's what an organization should be doing, and then there's what an organization will inevitably do. And that comes down to, like, how realistic they view their roster, i.e. the Chargers, right? man i just i'm getting like incepted and all the uh jeffrey simmons ai in bears uniforms that i've seen over the last 24 hours this is taking me to uncomfortable and irresponsible places i will say yes i will say this i will say this jeffrey simmons number one fit that i listed for jeffrey simmons your chicago bears i mean it makes sense i i just i think it if you're a team that is in need of a front difference maker he is right now arguably the best defensive tackle in football like he's he's worth as much as you think he might be on the trade market in my opinion even as a 29 year old player I think that you have to seriously consider giving up a lot to get him and I think that plays into the other side of it I think part of the reason that the Jets were willing to do what they did last year is that they got offers where they were like we have to do this I mean If they're going to give us two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner and a first and a second for Quentin Williams, we have to do this.

1:03:35Robert Mays: And again, I think for the age considerations, even if he is cost-controlled for the next couple years, I'm not sure Jeffrey Simmons is worth either of those price tags. I think next year is going to be his age 30 season, right? That's a lot. That's a lot to give up for somebody who's going to be turning 30 before the 2027 season starts. Great player, though. Fantastic player. And that's why I think a one is like, I would do that pretty quickly. A one and something else into the 2027 draft. And that's the other part of this is that if you are giving away a first round pick in multiple years, that adds an air of uncertainty in the way that the worst case scenario is what's playing out with the Colts right now.

1:04:23Robert Mays: If you're giving up one first round pick and you're most likely going to be picking 27th overall, Let it ride, baby. Like, that's the one where it doesn't really worry me that much. The conversation of, well, we're going to be good for a while, so it doesn't matter if we give up multiple first-round picks into the future. Go back and look at the history of teams that thought that. The Denver Broncos thought that when they traded for Russell Wilson. I promise you. The Seattle Seahawks thought that when they traded for Jamal Adams. Like, this shit happens too often, and we don't know as much as we want to about these teams on a multi-year basis, But I think you can pretty confidently say the Bears are probably going to be picking in the 20s when the season is over unless something catastrophic happens.

1:05:04Right. You could also be the Rams and keep the pick and then spend it on a player you know is not going to play in a season where you're trying to win a Super Bowl. There's a lot of different ways to express your hubris, you know.

1:05:14Robert Mays: Last thing I wanted to hit with you, you are writing a story with Mike Sando that's going to run tomorrow. that's running today, right? So it's Thursday, about just sort of the larger scale macro stuff, like just macro trends associated with trades in the NFL over the last 20 years. As you guys dug into this, what are some of those larger scale trends that you noticed and that we should be keeping in mind as we see what sort of flurry of activity happens here over the next two weeks? Yeah, so this was a super fun project and maybe the nerdiest thing I've done at The Athletic, which is saying something because I've done a lot of very nerdy stuff at The Athletic, But basically Sando was like, hey, I got every single trade since 2002.

1:05:53You want to look at it? And I was like, yeah. Sando isn't that nerdy, though. Yeah. I'm surprised you could push him to this place.

1:06:00Robert Mays: You really had to twist his arm. Yeah, exactly. So anyway, he sent me all the trades and then I was able to isolate them to strictly in-season trades and then was able to sort of run numbers to figure out overextended periods of time. Like, has trading actually increased? Because I think everyone feels it, right? Like it feels like the trade deadline has become more active and we attempted to sort of quantify it. So what we found was if you take 20, so I kind of put it onto a chart initially just to see if there was anything like visually I could, I could notice. And when you put all of the trades separated by year into a chart, it's very clear that in 2015, there's sort of a line of demarcation where trades increased.

1:06:38So when I crunched the numbers, 2015 to 2025, so an 11-season period, there were 155 total in-season trades. If you go the previous 11 seasons, 2004 to 2014, it's only 56 trades. So almost a 3x increase in in-season trades over those 11-season periods. You dig in a little bit deeper, same time frame, so 2015 to 2025, there were 16 in-season trades involving first and second round picks. go to the previous 11 years, 2004 to 2014, only eight. So there's been double in terms of like these aggressive trades that teams are making. You talk about Jalen Ramsey trade as an example. We talked about the Quinn and Williams and Sauce Gardner trades last year.

1:07:20And then the other interesting component is that the number of trades for sixth and seventh round picks involving sixth and seventh round picks. So seventh for a player, sixth for a player, or a sixth, seventh swap with a player going from one team to the other. 2015 to 2025, 69 such trades. 2004 to 2014, only 15 such trades. And then you isolate that to 2020 to 2025, 54 trades involving 6th and 7th round picks. 2015 to 2019, only 15 such trades. So you've seen this huge influx of those types. 3X, yeah. Exactly. Yeah, exactly. A little more than 3X.

1:07:56Robert Mays: Why do you think that one is happening more? Because a lot of the other ones I have theories about, the 6th and 7th round trades, that one i'd be curious what your take on that is okay so my i have like a couple hypotheses that are sort of related one is that you had the covet year in 2020 and all of a sudden all these players had additional years of eligibility and they all stayed in school for six years seven years and as a result it watered down drafts you had less talent available deeper into the draft and so maybe possibly teams are willing to part with those sixth and seventh round picks because they know there's going to be less talent in the draft draft you also factor in nil similar potential byproduct there where players are staying in school because they can make money through nil at the collegiate level waters down the draft those two factors could be sort of functioning in tandem to create these watered down drafts where teams think it's more valuable to take a stab at a player for a sixth or seventh or a swap that's already in the nfl and has some sort of proven ability as opposed to hanging out to those trips and using them in the draft yeah that makes sense i i honestly think it's also just i think that as we get more as there's more data available on drafts and just like what types of picks are worth having and what aren't i think teams are probably looking at sixth and seventh round picks and the hit rates on sixth and seventh round picks and just being like eh this this is trade fodder like i would rather just have somebody i know is going to be useful to me right now because if there's a i mean what's the hit rate on a seventh round pick turning into like a usable player five percent yeah under ten percent yeah yeah so i think that's that that probably has something to do with it for the bigger trades this is we've had this conversation in chunks over the last couple years but i find it so interesting i mean to me it just feels like a convergence of one you have younger more aggressive general managers like guys that are just willing to wheel and deal a little bit more than they were previously and i think it's driven forward by teams having success operating this way like you mentioned the jay london ramsey trade the point you guys started with where it was like 2015 to right now or 2016 to right now i mean that perfectly aligns with the current rams regime it perfectly aligns with the current rams regime and so i i think that that that's that's part of it howie roseman comes back into power like right around then and so i think you have a couple teams and a couple front offices that are prone to being pretty aggressive and because they were successful I think that drives a little bit of this and then the other part that I always come back to is if we're going to be in a place where teams have the cap to me is the biggest influence in this like number one for two reasons one if the cap is just going to continue to explode the idea the first thing that you would do in 2013 when you were thinking about if a team could trade for a player is you would go and look at whether the team had enough cap space to trade for that player i don't even do that anymore you're just like they'll figure it out they'll figure it out like if you want to do it you can do it and you probably aren't hamstringing yourself enough where it's off the table you can make it work if you want to make it work and so i think that the ability to absorb pretty much any sort of contract you want to if you have the stomach for doing it as part of it and i think the other part of it is if we have astronomical amounts of financial flexibility teams are going to be able to retain almost all of the players that are worth having on their rosters at high prices if that's the case and free agency is a dried up pool every single year where you're not going to be able to get difference making players and you never really were able to, but I think it's even, there are plenty of useful guys to be found in free agency every single year.

1:11:42Robert Mays: I don't think there are a lot of high end pieces that are worth chasing in free agency in most years. And so if you want to spend your money on needle moving players, it will usually take a draft pick in order to roster that player. And so I think those are kind of the larger scale machinations that have been interesting to me over the last few years, is I've tried to put forth ideas about why this is happening. I love that take. And I think it's dead on. And the other part of free agency is like, if you do get a player who's even like above average or of quality that hits free agency, the market goes insane.

1:12:17And we saw that with Tyler Linderbaum making$27 million a year, like good player, not worth$27 million a year. And so if you do want to find those players in free agency, you have to spend outrageous amounts. The other thing you brought up that's interesting is that certain teams have potentially influenced sort of the macro numbers more than others. And Sando's actually working on that section of the story. And he's putting together like net differential in terms of teams that have been more aggressive in terms of adding players and flipping picks. So go check that out if you want to know more about like sort of the specific team influence on the increase in trading recently.

1:12:56Robert Mays: I may be just a prisoner to the moment takes here. or just getting caught up in whatever yesterday felt like and what the next couple weeks are going to feel like, it feels like this year might be wild. And I know last year we had two guys, two big-name players moved at the deadline, and that doesn't happen every single year. And Jalen Phillips, you can throw him in there as well. And Jalen Phillips is in there too. Yeah, there were some big moves last year, but now we've already had three big traits, already had three big ones. I think that there's probably a monster one out there that we're not thinking about, whether it's Jeffrey Simmons or somebody else where it could be this year's version of the sauce Gardner trade, where again, all of the reasons and all of that hallmarks and the signposts you would use to figure out who's going to be traded.

1:13:41Robert Mays: None of those applied to sauce Gardner. Like they had just given him a deal as a young player. And so there, I'm there may be one weird one waiting out there. That's a bombshell. It's about to drop. But even beyond that, I just think there are like six or eight guys that it would make sense for the team to trade them. They're worthwhile trade pieces. and you have enough teams that are going for it that have needs at those spots where I think that we could be in for a pretty wild deadline. And I'm very excited to see how the next couple of weeks unfold. A hundred percent. It's great to be in a place as somebody who covers the NFL, where the league is now like treating the trade deadline, like other leagues.

1:14:17Cause it was always like, yes, you know, you, you know, you're looking over at the deadline back to that's also,

1:14:23Robert Mays: we didn't mention that like moving into week nine, that has a huge effect. Yeah. A hundred percent. So they did that in 2024 and then they moved it actually back to week eight in 2012. So they kind of progressively have moved it back, which has allowed teams to more realistically view if they're in the playoff race or not. But it used to be, you know, you look, you know, at the NBA trade deadline and the MLB trade deadline, you're here covering the NFL being like, man, that'll be really fun to cover some player movement in the middle of the season. It feels like the NFL is getting closer to that, not at that level, but enough for us to have this type of conversation and put together a board of players and have it be interesting and within the realm of possibility.

1:15:00Robert Mays: It's going to be a fun couple of weeks. I'm looking forward to it. And if you want to read all about it, you can do it at the old athletic because Daniel Popper is hitting it from every single angle. We're getting trade grades. You can go check out the big board, all of that good stuff. All right. That is all we've got today. Thank you for all of you for tuning. Thank you to all of you for tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow with the week eight preview Until then, I appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

1:15:30Robert Mays: If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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