Was Jayden Daniels' injury really behind the Commanders 2025 collapse? That, and more lingering questions

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1:36Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Our lingering question series rolls on today. We did this last offseason, wanted to bring it back this summer. Just a set of questions that we have about the way that last year ended that we didn't really have time to address because we were focusing on the teams that were going to be playoff teams, that were focusing on a side of the ball that was more important to a team making the playoffs. We're going to talk about the Niners young defensive players today. When we were studying and thinking about the Niners near the end of last year, it was mostly is the offense good enough while the defense is terrible for them to be competitive against these teams in the NFC playoffs.

2:13Robert Mays: So we want to take a little bit of time today to study that defense, to look at a guy like Mikel Williams, Alfred Collins. What can they be heading into year two based on what their rookie years looked like? We talked about the Cowboys. the Cowboys the entire offseason has been about the defense. Can the defense get better? Can the defense get better? Because I think that there's just this presumption that the offense is already good enough for the Cowboys to be a contender in 2026. Well, is it? Was it? Like, how should we actually feel about the Cowboys offense? So those are the types of questions that we're going to be digging into as part of this series here over the next few weeks.

2:47Robert Mays: Really enjoyed the first go around of it with me and Derek. Let's get to that conversation right now.

3:02Robert Mays: Digging in today to our first real lingering question show, right? The first one was about the second year quarterbacks, the guys who were rookies last year. That's not really in the spirit of the exercise. It just felt like we could fold it in under the umbrella. Today, we're going to be digging into a few questions, three questions that we either didn't have time to address at the end of last season. And I also think the first one we're going to talk about the way that I would categorize it is it's just a working assumption we all have that I feel like we might want to interrogate a little bit more.

3:33Robert Mays: It's a big tech what fits under the lingering questions umbrella here. But today, I think we're really digging into what these shows are supposed to feel like in the way that they felt last year. It is the first real one. And I'm really excited for this one, because like you said, the the the second year quarterbacks is fun. Like those are always guys that are really fun to talk about. And it's fun to dissect all that stuff. but that's like baked into the schedule, right? We're all going to do a show like that. And so to be able to finally jump into some of these questions that are a little bit more like you got to do some digging, you got to do some real thinking about like, what did I think last season that maybe is or isn't true going into this year?

4:04So these ones are, I'm really excited about all these. Kind of funny we landed on all NFC, by the way. Obviously an accident, we'll have some AFC ones at some point, but.

4:13Robert Mays: Yeah, we did try to mix it up a little bit, right? I think the first pass at the first trio of questions, there was no defense in there. So we threw a defensive one in there. Hopefully we're going to have a pretty good mix. There really isn't, other than their second year quarterbacks, any kind of through line between these. It's going to be a grab bag over the next four episodes or so. But I actually think that's a fun way of attacking it. So the first one I wanted to dig into today, and this is not just about what happened at the end of last season, but the conversation that's extended into this offseason.

4:43Robert Mays: So with the Cowboys specifically, you have last year, George Pickens has this incredible season. It's year one under Brian Schottenheimer and Clayton Adams, the offensive coordinator. Cowboys are doing a lot of really fun stuff on offense. Dak looks fantastic. They're a really good run game earlier in the year. And we get to the end of the season. The team peters out in part because the defense was just an abject disaster. So as we move into this offseason, they fire the defensive coordinator. They hire Christian Parker. They throw tons of resources on defense, whether it's in the veteran market, in the draft.

5:13Robert Mays: And in the background of all of that, this entire time is this thought or this assumption or just this refrain where it's like, okay, if the Cowboys fix their defense, there's a chance that they are like a real contender in 2026 because of the way that the offense played last year. So the question that I wanted to ask is, is that true? Like is the Cowboys offense from last year and projecting the Cowboys offense moving forward, was it good enough for us to just assume that if they fix the defense, which are the only real moves they made this offseason, that Dallas can't actually make some noise this season?

5:48Robert Mays: So where do you want to start that exploration? Kind of want to start by talking about like what the, some of the conditions that they had to deal with last year. And one thing I wanted to start that I looked up, because obviously this was a team, you talk about that defense, they were awful. And so they were one of 10 teams last year to be trailing for at least 600 plays. According to NFL Pro, they're the only team in that group to have a positive EPA as an offense. And so they like, despite being constantly behind the sticks, not always being able to call the stuff that they want to be able to call, they were still able to be a highly successful offense.

6:25Because again, the quarterback is very good and you have these two really good receivers. And so given that's their starting point, I do still think there's some projection of like, can they be the third best offense in the NFL that lets you be a Super Bowl team? The offensive line needs to take some steps. You probably want one more of those tertiary guys to step up and stuff like that. But like, I think there's a chance that they can do it. I'm not going to like write it in stone, but I think there's absolutely a world where they can be that.

6:50Robert Mays: Yeah, the circumstances associated with the offense were incredibly strange for that reason. And I think that that bleeds into how you want to play offense. I think they probably did some stuff in part, rather than trying to optimize what they were offensively, can we run the ball a little bit more just to try to keep the defense off the field? Like some stuff that just lingers in the back of your mind that if you're playing in more neutral situations, you don't really have to think about. And there are some quirks that I think creeped up for their offense because of how many odd situations they were in.

7:21Robert Mays: One that stuck out to me, and it came up because I was talking to somebody there about why the run game success kind of fell off in the back half of the season, which we can talk about because the first half and the second half, I think, there is a difference. There's a distinct difference between their efficiency in each part of the season. Teams were weirdly playing like base personnel to their 11 on early downs. and it's not a crazy amount, but just like one number to throw out. The Cowboys last year in the second half of the season had 22 runs into base defense out of 11 personnel. Only one other team in the league had more than 11.

7:56Robert Mays: So it was double pretty much every other team in the NFL. And I think that's partially just because the offense presents a very unique challenge with the two receivers, but also the game scripts were just very weird. And so they were getting things you just don't normally get in normal, neutral situations as an offense. And I think the background of the defense being so bad is an important thing to remember when you consider why that might've been happening. That one too, with the base defense, because I was looking that up a little bit, like why did they end up, you know, how did they end up playing so much base?

8:26Part of it is like, they also will play a lot of 21 and we'll talk about personnel in a second. I do think with that split though, I wonder how much of that is affected by the Lions game because the Lions are a defense that will just do that to you.

8:38Robert Mays: The Lions were some of it. I had the exact same thought because the Lions are it was the Lions had a chunk of it. But there were teams like the Vikings are a good example. The Vikings played like a handful of base defense snaps against their 11. So clearly they were. And I think partially this is because they ran the ball better out of 11 personnel for most of the season than they did out of heavier personnel packages. I would be curious to talk to a defensive coach and ask why you wanted to do this. But it is a quirk. And then they there were some of those things where I think the offensive staff last year thought they might be getting what they had seen on film previously.

9:11Robert Mays: And because of the two receivers and I think because of the unique dynamic of the offense being the only way they could win the game, I think that there were just certain things defenses were doing to them that they weren't necessarily expecting. And even with that in the background, I think we can start with why they the answer to this question might be yes. Like they are good enough. The numbers were still fantastic. like they finished six and offensive success rate last year per next gen they were fifth in epa per play like overall the offense was still really really good over the course of the season despite being weighed down by the circumstances associated with the defense and again despite the fact that in the back half of the year the run game efficiency did take a little bit of a hit which we can talk about but overall the body of work was extremely impressive it was and like you have that element of it right the objective where like the numbers were still good again even despite how how much they were trailing some of the injuries to the offensive line later down the stretch.

10:05I also think there's a subjective thing where when I look at them, for the most part, I think you want some of the best offenses in the league to kind of be able to do a little bit of everything. And I do think Dallas can do that. Like, I think their offensive line, when healthy, is capable of running a myriad of schemes. I think obviously Dak Prescott can kind of operate any sort of offense. Now that they have George Pickens, they can stretch down the field in a way that I don't think they were really able to, you know, for the last couple of years before that. I just feel like they're able to tap into a certain amount of things.

10:33And then going back to the personnel that I mentioned, we're moving into a world where a lot of teams want to do two tight ends, three tight ends. They have some guys, but they were actually more of a 21 team. They're a little bit more like Shanahan is like this. McDaniels like this. The Ravens have been like this. And to me, I think that's an important note. I think while the tight end movement is obviously real, I think the smaller subsect of that inside of that is like, you really just need a way to get out of 11 personnel in some way. So they're still kind of a heavy 11 personnel team, but they do at least have that non 11 personnel changeup, which I do think is important for, again, making sure that you have options for every kind of team that you play.

11:11Robert Mays: That's really interesting that you say this, because I actually one of the things that's holding me back a little bit is that I look at the heavy personnel that they have, just the fullbacks, the tight ends on the roster. And I look at what the offense was mostly out of the multi tight end sets. But even if you want to go into like the 21 personnel stuff when they want to get heavy and push people around I think they struggle to do that because the tight ends that's not really what this group is and even Lepke is more of like that move fullback in those Shanahan type teams than he is like a grinding lead blocker type and so that to me if this team wants to come out and sling the ball all around the yard and the offensive line which we can talk about takes a small step forward you have those receivers, you have the quarterback, you have the overall structure.

11:58Robert Mays: I think that that part of the offense is absolutely good enough for them to push it all the way over the top. If the defense can hold up its end of the bargain. I wonder, as we've seen more and more teams and the necessity for teams to be able to run the ball on their own terms with multiple tight ends on the field and just push you around physically. Can this team do that against the best defenses in the league? when we get deeper into the season. That is like the number one thing that I, it's in the back of my mind because I just don't know if this group is capable of that. And when we look at all the additions they made on defense, which is completely understandable, when you don't do anything on offense, this is kind of where you can arrive, where, yeah, the offense was great last year, probably will be really good again with the same pieces.

12:46Robert Mays: But then you just look at some of the areas of the roster that probably need a little bit of an injection or a little bit of an improvement that didn't get it. And to me, that's what it is. It's like one more blocking tight end that you feel good about in those situations. This team probably could have used one of those guys, but justifiably, they spent every resource available to them trying to get the defense back to an acceptable level. The answer to that probably is how good the offensive line develops, right? And I think that they're a good unit, but I think of the, we talk about so much about how it's like a young ascending offensive line, right?

13:18And I think Tyler Smith obviously has already proven himself as one of the best guards in the league. And I think that Cooper Beebe is a pretty good center. I think with the other two, with Tyler Guyton, especially as it refers to health and I think pass protection, we need to see a little bit more. And then right guard Tyler Booker, the torque that he gets is insane when he can get onto people. I think his footwork and ability to climb to the second level at times is really lacking and that even shows up in pass protection. So I think he just needs to like shore up things mentally so that when he is trying to get to his spots, he's in a little bit better position so he can actually use his power.

13:50whereas Guyton I actually think Guyton did show progress last year again just ends up getting banged up over the second half of the season and to your point that we were talking about earlier that's probably to me where some of the run game issues the second half of the season came in like he was he was kicking ass in the run game actually and then he just got hurt Nathan Thomas has to

14:05Robert Mays: come in and things fall apart a little bit you saw the Nathan Thomas effect and over that like three or four games stretch in the back half of the year the Chiefs game specifically kind of sticks out where I mean it's again he's a backup left tackle and you notice that in the run game specifically, I'm 100 % with you. I think those are the two guys where you watch it, and they theoretically have the most unrealized upside as first-round picks, but it needs to happen. I would say as of right now, I'm probably more confident in it happening with Tyler Booker than I am with Tyler Guyton simply because it's only been one year, right?

14:38Robert Mays: It was one year. There's just like some little things to clean up. I do think that going into year two, same offense, exact same staff, like if he wants to get better and based on everything I've ever heard about that guy it seems like I'm assuming he's putting in what he needs to this spring in order to get there with Guyton now we're going into year three and I think beyond him getting banged up in the back half of last year him getting hurt in training camp absolutely is worth bringing up because he didn't have a clean offseason in order to kind of get used to again new scheme new system new staff all of that stuff so I think it is absolutely possible that with a healthy offseason and for each of them, they do take the step that they need to take.

15:21Robert Mays: Overall, where I land with the offensive line is, I think that Terrence Steele needs to definitively be the fifth best offensive lineman on this team for most of the season for them to be the unit that we think they can be and the reason we're asking this question. That's an incredible bar to set. That's the perfect bar to set because he is completely passable right tackle playing. So if the other guys improve to the spot where you do feel like he's the worst guy, it's I think that that's really good it's it's how I've joked about before how like uh when we were talking about the Eagles secondary at certain points where I'm like when Reed Blankenship is your worst defensive back your unit is pretty good when he's your third it's a little bit different and this does feel like a similar spot for the Dallas offensive line let's talk about the run game just briefly just talking about some of the context around that second half and what it looked like so in the second half of the season in the first half of the season the Cowboys per next gen 49 % success rate against neutral box runs.

16:13Robert Mays: So no advantage talking seven guys, probably in the box. They had a 49 % success rate was up near the top of the league. In the second half of the season, it was 33.3%. So in the exact same situations, you just had a massive fall off. And I think some of that is moving parts along the offensive line. Some of that is, I think Javante Williams wore down a little bit. They wrote him so hard in the first half of the year. And I think that's going to be another question and again goes back to the man it would be nice if in this draft this draft is obviously kind of an exception to this but if we could have had thrown a mid-round pick at a running back in any traditional year and had maybe one more option rather than jayden blue has to become that guy for us would we feel a little bit different about the long-term viability of the run game compared to kind of falling apart last year stuff like that and i think the other part is again they just struggle to run the ball out of heavy personnel like if you look at 12 personnel runs specifically they were they just really really struggled out of those looks and so them and that that's just again I can't get rid of this idea of when they are in those personnel groupings and they're going to be like they're a heavy 11 personnel team but I think you're going to see a little bit of everything from them yet again is that personnel good enough for them to be that multifaceted team out of those looks that maybe would allow them to be like a championship caliber offense i really do still have my doubts about that would you feel better if they leaned into just a little bit more two back trying to be more of a misdirection team that sort of thing would that would that help assuage some of those concerns for you yeah maybe i i think it might and again they're not like a super heavy 12 like multi-tied team but that but even like the 22 runs that you saw last year were very bad like they they were not good at running the ball out of those looks either so i don't know exactly what the answer is i think it might just be we are we're an 11 personnel team like that's where we're best and that the league is kind of drifting away from that but it's still a viable way to be like an elite offense is having three receivers you feel really good about and i honestly among all of the like one step down skill position players on this team florinoy is one of the ones that i'm excited about and i think that turpin for what his role is like them using turpin the way that they did and having him just kind of be like motion eye candy and the amount of motion and purposeful motion we saw with this offense last year compared to what we had seen over the last few years they were sixth in the nfl in success rate when using motion last year per next gen and you see like how much turpin can play into that and just what he does to kind of affect the defense and so the receiving group overall even if there aren't big name guys other than lamb and george pickens i actually do feel pretty good about how that's constructed i think it's the other skilled position rooms where i'm like we probably could have used one more but I understand how they couldn't get there I think that's fair because I actually do like Fleur Noy as well but yeah the tight end room running back room is not as as not as exciting and it just doesn't have a lot of pop which is probably where my concern comes like your explosives in this offense do have to be George Pickens make a play hey CeeDee Lamb can you be you know like you were after the catch in 2023 and 2024 as compared to last year and so I actually do think there's that small element of it too like CeeDee Lamb was good last year he's been better in previous years and there's a chance that he kind of just returns to form and that helps you know raise the offense again when you were going back and just watching the passing offense overall like what stuck out to you about beyond the talent what kind of structural elements were lifting what they looked like on that side of the ball because we talked about even from the start of the season just some of the things that they were doing with brian schottenheimer and doing with that staff and how much we were liking it what stuck out to you when you went back and actually studied it a little bit more yeah i mean it was this was an offense that never wanted to run play action or move motion and they actually moved people a lot and they actually their play action rate was pretty high despite being behind in games all the time which is typically not how that goes and so this is clearly something that they are wanting to lean into but i think more specifically i thought they did a good job of i think cd lamb has always been like a good inside out player or he's become more of a guy who can be also outside as opposed to just inside i think the way that they also used some of those ancillary options you're talking about Ryan Flournoy being able to just set him outside sometimes if they want to to get Pickens inside or use Turpin as that eye candy like maybe they would there were some plays where like they would have Turpin in the slot and they would just fast motion him out to the outside and now Pickens is our new slot receiver and then he would just run this outbreaker against a nickel that just can't cover him physically in that way and so I do think they actually did a good job of finding ways to uncover Pickens because I think that that was probably one of the things going back to his days with the Steelers is that his role was a little bit more he was kind of like a sacrificial ex who was too good to be that and now he is actually in an offense that tries to highlight his skill set as more than just that even like isolating him on just basic slants while having like a fast motion to the flat so you're creating more space for that route and giving him a little bit of runway and one of the things about Pickens for a big body receiver what he can do after the catch is really impressive and so not only just putting him in isolated situations but putting him in isolated situations that also put him in space just so many little things about understanding the best ways to fully unlock him were on full display last year and that's why you saw him be i don't know one of like the five or six most valuable receivers in the entire nfl in an era where there are 20 good receivers he was incredible dude because his yards after the catch stuff is insane obviously what he does at the catch point is insane he had I forget which game I was watching but he hit a double move on somebody that I was like it's crazy that he's good as so many other things and then also has like that gear to him like he's just he he was exceptional last year the it is worth mentioning though if we're talking about their hopes heading into next season and what will carry over and what won't do we get that pick in the season again the fact that he's playing on the franchise tag the fact that there's been a little bit of animosity and a little bit of frustration.

22:14Robert Mays: Clearly they're having to kind of, let's say tend to that relationship this year, right? They're going to have to monitor what's happening with him and they're going to have to make sure they're pressing the right buttons to ensure that they're getting the most out of him. It's something to keep in mind. Like there is absolutely a chance that that kind of game breaking player we saw last year, that can be one of the most valuable receivers in the entire league. Do we get him playing at that level again? Because I personally, I think if he's not playing at that level, then this is kind of a non-starter.

22:46Robert Mays: Like that is a necessary component for them to achieve what we're talking about here. Yeah, you need this to rival Jamar Chase and T. Higgins or the whole thing doesn't work. I do think Pickens can get there, though. And the reason because I had some of those concerns coming into this season. And obviously, there's been more. Yeah, with the contract stuff that you could probably talk about. But I think for me, because of how well last year went, because this is an offense that is clearly designing plays for him, because it's an offense that clearly the quarterback can get him the ball in a way that he's never had before, I do actually have more faith that it can kind of sustain and that he'll be pretty damn good again.

23:19Robert Mays: It's another contract here. I mean, because he's on the tag, this is another contract here, and so you would hope that the motivations are all aligned in the right place. So just to recap here, I think the boxes that are necessary to check. Passing game, I think we feel good about what it looks like, not only the personnel, but again, some of the levers that they're pulling that they haven't pulled in years past. just how much more under center they've been compared to previous years, the motion that they're using, the play action rates. It's all at like a league average level, and they're getting the benefits from it that you would hope a team would get from it.

23:50Robert Mays: It is just a little bit of a way to turn up so many of the good things they were already doing and already could be on offense. So I think all of that in the passing game I feel pretty good about. The pass protection question being just the right step forward from your left tackle and your right guard, I think that is a necessary component to this, And I think they're all overall improvement, making sure you look closer to the run game you were in the first half of the season rather than the second half of the season. That to me, if all of that comes together, I think my answer to this question is yes.

24:21Robert Mays: Like the Cowboys can be that level of offense this year. And we should have a reasonable amount of confidence in them being that level of offense this year if everyone stays relatively healthy. I think I'm on the same boat. Like you can't guarantee it. Like there are really only two or three offenses in the league. I might want to guarantee that level of success, but I would definitely go towards likely for this offense. Now the pressure lies with what the defense can do and whether or not Christian Parker and all the moves those guys made actually are enough for them to hold up their end of things.

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28:48Robert Mays: This one to me is like a perfect representation of the exercise because it's just a team that we forgot about as we went deeper into the year and then again you have assumptions you have things that you're just going to be like alright well this is obviously true about this team so we can just move on to the next season but this is why we're taking the time to do some of this And it's the question is with Washington, were there issues last year and their struggles on offense? Is this just about their quarterback missing the amount of time that he did last year? I think the other side to that is like.

29:21Robert Mays: is the Jaden Daniels led offense in Washington maybe more concerning than we think coming out of last year because he was hurt like that's the subtext of this so when you went back and you watched Washington last year and tried to figure this out where did you land on whether Jaden Daniels's injury and like how responsible Jaden Daniels's injury was for Washington's offense looking the way that it did I mean I think we kind of have to separate the Jaden Daniels parts of it from the what else was wrong with the offense part of it. I think the other parts of the offense were, there were so many things that went wrong that did not have anything to do with Jaden Daniels.

29:57Like, I think we even talked about coming out of last year that the way that they were running the offense, being so spread, so gun, being so quarterback run, so RPO, very like a lot of simple, kind of just like split field concept plays, a lot of quick game. The way that they were running it, like there was probably a shelf life on that. Like, I think it's really hard to live in the NFL consistently like that. And I think we thought Daniels in time could develop into something new, but obviously the offense didn't really do that last year. And I think part of the reason they were able to get away with it last year was one, obviously the Daniels was just hitting on the deep ball in a way that was like always going to be unsustainable.

30:33Same thing with some of the fourth down stuff. And then the other thing is, even though the offense was not that talented in 2024, Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown were better to me than the other guys that they were trotting out there last year. And that doesn't seem like a lot, but it is at least like those guys we know to be functional role players. The guys that they had out there last year, for the most part, were not really that. And I do think that, like, they were already working on that, like, razor's edge, right, with that being acceptable. And as soon as they fell under that, a lot of the offense became pressure on Terry McLaurin.

31:05And I think that that was just not a sustainable way to run the offense.

31:09Robert Mays: And even McLaurin didn't play that much last year. I mean, you look at it, there were 100 combined dropbacks with Jaden Daniels and Terry McLaurin on the field together last year. The numbers on those dropbacks are actually very bad. And that's partially because they really played three games together. It was one game against the Giants. And then the two other games were the disaster game against the Packers. And then the game they played against the Vikings later in the year where they got absolutely destroyed by Minnesota's defense. so you have the majority of the plays with those two guys on the field together coming in arguably your two worst games as an offense and I don't think that's because of them I think those are just the circumstances associated with that game yeah yes exactly and also what I'll say too actually the Packers game is a good example of this and even even the Vikings game I do think a thing that teams started to do was just be like okay especially because you're worse talent wise on offense even though Jaden Daniels is good at replacing the blitz teams were like we're gonna blitz you we're going to jump on everything and we're going to say can you complete six deep balls against us because we really just do not think that you can do that and they obviously could not do that because other than McLaurin they just didn't have guys who could win one-on-one like there were so many times that they were using Debo Samuel it's actually funny in the first game I think it was like the fourth or fifth play of the game it was the second and five they have Debo Samuel in this outside the numbers split running like a 10 yard out and the corner just jumps it because like Debo is never actually threatening him deep and he can just jump on it.

32:34And it's like that felt like a very early omen for how the rest of the entire season was going to go for them.

32:39Robert Mays: The play that sticks out to me, they're playing against the Chargers. Whenever I'm watching another team's offense and they play against the Chargers, I always like watching that game. I just think the Chargers are a very good barometer. Like they're a good defense, but it's not like an overwhelming level of talent. The front isn't one that's going to consistently ruin games, even if it's a good group. they're in line enough with the defensive meta of where the league is that it actually is like a good mirror image of like what you are as an offense and so anytime i'm looking at an offense and they play against the chargers i find myself watching that game on the first third down of that game mcclellan is not playing debo samuel is isolated as the x receiver to the left side they try to run a slant against man coverage and cam hart is just sitting inside of it the entire time and there's just nowhere for jayden danos to go with the ball that was it like that's what the offense felt like so often last year and the results against man coverage were like really striking this was a team that when you force them to throw the ball and didn't let jayden run in 2024 that was an area where you know they had relative struggles against man especially when we talked about this a lot in the lead-up to the playoffs like when teams would use like five man pressures and play man coverage.

33:50Robert Mays: And so you speed him up a little bit and there's no void in which to throw the ball against the blitz. That's where this team was worst. So, but so the man coverage stuff I think was coming, even if they were healthy, you remove McLaurin from the situation and things get just dramatically worse. So this year per next gen 24th and passing success rate, Washington was against man coverage. It's 46 % in 2024, 38 % in 2025. And they saw it on about 30 % of dropbacks, which is the seventh highest rate in the league. And part of that is because nobody could get open. The other part of it is Jaden only had five scrambles against man coverage this entire season.

34:29Robert Mays: He had 21 of them in 2024. And overall, just period, when teams blitzed them this year, that was the other area where it was just dramatically different. 0.25 EPA per drop back against the Blitz in 2024. Last year was negative 0.38. And when he was scrambling, it was even more dramatic. It was 0.51 in 2024 on scrambles against the Blitz. Last year, it was 0.01. And so just those areas where they, anytime teams played man against him and he scrambled, that was like their best answer. When teams blitzed, it was either quick or it was him escaping the pocket. And so just all those little things that they were able to tap into situationally in 2024 just weren't as available to them last year, combined with the fact that when McCorn wasn't out there, the receiving personnel was just like a non-starter any time a team wanted to play man coverage against them.

35:22And again, some of that goes back to just some of the way they ran the offense was probably always going to have shelf life. And then again, the receiver talent just being a little bit worse. I also think we can, I think, move a little bit towards the Jaden Daniels aspect of this. I want to start by saying I do not by any means think that like he is broken I think that he's going to have a chance to do good things in this league and he still did a lot of decent stuff last year I do think though that you started to see last year a little bit he was not as accurate as he had been and I think part of that is and this was even before he got injured by the way like you watched the Giants game and like all these crossers that he's trying to throw he's throwing them like bullets and he's just not really getting like the loft under the ball that you want so that guys can go run to it and he's he feels like he's aiming the throw he's over striding when he's throwing that part of his game felt really bizarre to me and so I don't know if that was like he just got uncomfortable in training camp I don't know if he was more banged up than we thought coming in I don't know what that was about but I do think that that part needs to change and then the other thing speaking of shelf life on things he had last year 7.4 rushes or scrambles a game which is the highest in the NFL.

36:29The only other player above even six was Justin Fields. And when you look at all the players that were above five of those plays a game, it's Jalen Hurts, Jackson Dart, Josh Allen, Justin Fields. Justin Fields is 227. Jalen Hurts is 223. Jackson Dart is 223. And we even have concerns about him. Josh Allen is 237. And then Drake May was right under that and he's 225. Jaden Daniels is generously 210 pounds. And so that part of the offense, I think probably does need to change in some respect moving forward at least the designed element element of it he should always be a scrambler but i do think the designed element of it they need to find a way to move off of that until they need it accuracy point is a very good one and if you look at the

37:11Robert Mays: numbers right if you look at like off target percentage things like that it's not going to look dramatically different than it did the previous year because it's not sprays it's not like big misses it's more fine-tuned than that and especially on like throws over the middle of the field crossing routes, stuff that kind of seemed automatic for them in his rookie year. It's just a couple inches too high and too high. It's a couple inches behind the guy. And just that level of precision in that area of this field specifically just wasn't at the same level that it was for him as a rookie. I would 100 % agree with that.

37:45Robert Mays: And I think you saw some of that. Weirdly enough, one of the other things that jumped out to me, the Vikings game is a very good example of this. because so much of their success against the Blitz in his rookie year and just overall is him getting rid of the ball immediately, just really, really quickly. Guys were getting their hands up in passing lanes, knowing that that's exactly when the ball was going to come out, and a lot of passes got deflected. And so ball's getting deflected on the line of scrimmage, ball just hitting off a guy's hand because it's a foot behind where it's supposed to be.

38:17Robert Mays: That stuff crept up a lot. And when those things really start to add up, you get to a place where you just have so many more unsuccessful plays. Even if the offense doesn't look like a disaster, it's just not calibrated in quite the way you needed it to be from the prior year. That's a really good way to put it, because it really is the combination of a lot of those things. If it's one more batted pass a game, if it's one more throwaway a game because he just feels a little bit more uncomfortable, which I think he did this year. Like he was throwing the ball away a lot. He had 12 throwaways on 188 attempts, which is like a pretty high rate.

38:49So you had that you had again, if it's one more spray a game, that doesn't feel like a lot. But if you have 30 dropbacks, that's 10 % of your dropbacks like that does become a lot of a lot of your plays. And so I do just think it was a little bit of those things. I still think that he can and will be a good player. And that's why I'm excited to see how the offense changes because I do I do think that's where this gets a little bit tricky. Obviously, there were parts of the offense that, again, talent-wise, they just had nothing. And I think there was always going to be a run-win what Cliff's offense could be.

39:17But I'm now curious about how much of that, the way that Cliff's offense was run and how much they were doing stuff, is because that is what Daniels is and wants to do? Or is David Blau coming in going to actually be able to change a lot of those things? I don't know.

39:31Robert Mays: What do you think this personnel looks like filtered through a more traditional offensive lens? Because that's what's going to happen, right? We're going to see more under center. We're going to see more just straight play action. Like there are going to be elements of David Blau's background and where he comes from in Detroit. Like I think that's almost inevitable. But at the same time, do you want to fully put a quarterback like this into that box? What is a middle ground between those two worlds look like? I think they've come out and said, you know, there's still going to be things that accentuate what Jaden does well.

40:04Robert Mays: And you don't want to, you know, you don't want to make Jaden Daniels into Jared Goff. Like that doesn't really make sense. But also like we said that about Caleb Williams, Caleb Williams is not really the same type of quarterback that Jaden Daniels is operating from the gun and as a runner. And so I think it's a slightly different conversation. So what this is going to look like is one question. What this should look like is another question. And I don't think as of right now, I have like a satisfying answer to the second one. I really don't either. I have no idea because even if you're trying to, let's just say we live in the world where Jaden Daniels can just do all those things and we don't have to worry about how he's going to acclimate to all that stuff how much are you going to put chigakonkwa on the line of scrimmage the only other rookie receiver they brought in is really a slot only in like antonio williams and so i'm just like it really does feel like they've built an offense that feels more like 2016 under center like pure wide zone split zone sort of offense and i just wonder is that really a way that they're going to be able to operate in you know in 2026 i really don't know and that's why i think it feels really weird to me to try to piece it together.

41:08Like, it feels more to me like they did just bring in players that were actually just going to lean in to, like, continue to be a really shotgun spread team. Because that's what you do if you bring in a guy who's mostly a slot player. That's what you do if you bring in a Chigokonkwo who's that style player. Even Rashad White as a passing down back kind of gives you that because it allows you to have five out pretty often. And so I just, I wonder how that's going to go. I don't know.

41:31Robert Mays: I still think John Bates is still on this team. And so even if you're going to play a little bit more too tight end, And the fact that Okonkwo can be like a true move piece because you do have a why that you can stick on the line of scrimmage. I think there is a way to live in a more like traditional under center heavy personnel world with those two guys and still make it work. If you're understanding the blocking situations, you're allowed to put Chico Okonkwo in. So I don't necessarily think that's to me as much of a clear declaration of intent about what they want it to look like. But I still am not any closer to figuring out what it's actually going to be.

42:04But but you can't that's a decent point. Like you you can envision the world where they're like Brock Wright, Sam Laporta ish dynamic. Yeah, I think that just feels like I need to see it. You know what I mean? Like because I think I'm in the same boat as you like, even if theoretically that does make sense to me. I think I need to actually see that in action for me to understand and feel comfortable about what that's going to do for the offense.

42:27Robert Mays: Any other thoughts about Washington last year? What your anything, any nuggets you stumbled onto? Anything else you wanted to get out there before we move on to the next one? I mean, those were my big ones. And I think, again, I would say I'm just curious to see how much of the gun preference is really a Jaden Daniels thing. And if that's going to change or if in a year or two, we're going to end up kind of where it seemed like Kyler Murray and the Cardinals ended up in 2025, where they did in 2024. They get to 2025 and he's like, I don't really want to do that anymore. And we go back. And so I'm just curious to see what that push and pull looks like.

42:59But other than that, again, I think Daniels can be good. I think we're going to have to see a lot of development from him. And then obviously the offense is just, even if it takes some steps the right way schematically, it's still not a very talented unit.

43:12Robert Mays: The other thing I would say, just pointing out, we talked about this when we were just doing the supporting casts. The offensive line, I do think has a chance to take a step from where it was last year, even if you can admit you're probably downgrading a little bit at center. because Cosme only played nine games last year. He came into the season recovering. Josh Connolly's a rookie. I could see a world. Chris Paul is somebody that, again, they kind of landed on that midstream in the middle of the season, sliding him in there at one of the guard spots. That offensive line being solidified from day one, your first round right tackle being a second year player, your right guard that at his best has been a really good player having an entire healthy off season.

43:51Robert Mays: Is that group, does it look dramatically different or at least different enough this year where that can be a strength of like what this offense is, even if you have a lot of concerns about the pass catchers. I think that will go a long way in determining like what this group feels like independent of all the schematic changes that we're going to see. That's a good point, too, because actually the last thing I would say to that point is that if they can be a better unit and they can especially run block better without having to involve the quarterback and some of that can be under center, because like even when Jaden Daniels was good in 2024, this was not a team that ran the ball very well, like without the quarterback element of it.

44:27Like they were just not that good of a just hand the ball off to the running back team. And so if they can be better there and they can, you know, levy some of that into some play action stuff, I do think that that could help them. But again, with the quarterback and the personnel, it's just I'm having a hard time like piecing that together right now in my mind until I actually see it.

44:45Robert Mays: It's going to be one of the more interesting, Like let's open this present on week one and see what it looks like offenses in the entire NFL. I'm very much looking forward to that. All right. Let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat a little bit about the San Francisco 49ers. So I'm playing in a softball league this summer and it's great. I'm having a ton of fun. Baseball was a sport that I played my entire life. I was pretty good at it. If we're going to let myself pat me on the back for a sec, always came naturally. And my brain still works the way it did when I was younger.

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48:06Robert Mays: so last year obviously the Niners defense just completely decimated when it comes to the star level talent that they were supposed to have heading into the season no Nick Bosa for most of the year no Fred Warner for most of the year and it became like a youth movement on that side of the ball you had all those guys that they drafted last year as especially they tried to remake the front. And so the question that we wanted to ask here, how did they actually play? Like all of those young rookies that got on the field last year for the Niners, what did they look like? And what does that mean for what our expectations should be moving forward?

48:41Robert Mays: So there's a bunch of these guys, right? Obviously, Michael Williams is a first round pick CJ West, Alfred Collins on the defensive line. Nick Martin was a third round pick at linebacker who got a little bit of time up and stout played more than we probably expected him to in the nickel. So we can take this a bunch of different directions who did you mostly focus on when you went back and were studying the rookies for the Niners last year um I I watched a decent amount of all these guys the trick was trying to find games in which they all played together because again they were so decimated it really did not happen very often you had to watch a couple it and piece them all together but I think the way I want to do this is probably separating the front from the secondary because there are like three or four players on each of them I think we can start with the front which to me was mostly just michael williams alfred collins and cj west um all the guys that they drafted last year i think for me i i'll kind of start from the bottom up cj west was the guy that they had drafted to like play three tech and give them a little pass rush and there were some flashes where he was decent as a pass rusher i think there was a reason this team traded for three tech this year um you know diggy zua like he just i think got moved off the ball pretty consistently in the run game and that was a lot of their issues alfred collins is one of those weird noses where he's just kind of because he's so tall like he's 6 '5 right so he doesn't he's not as squatty as you think a nose tackle is so he doesn't actually he doesn't get moved around necessarily but he doesn't command as much just like sit in the ground space as you would imagine like a Vitavea does pretty consistently he's just not really that type of guy he's a little bit more explosive but I do think that he played well for them and I'm I'm pretty excited about him as a piece moving forward, at least as like a decent giving them starter snaps.

50:23Michael Williams is the one that I think we really have to spend the most time trying to parse how we feel about him. By the numbers, it was not good. He had, if you look at, it was just not very good. If you look at true media, I looked at pass rushers, rookie pass rushers going back to 2020. And I tried to look at guys who were in his range of pressure rate, which was 8.4%, which is pretty damn low. And I tried to find guys who were like his play style, right? Derek Hall in 2023 was 8.3%. Chase Young actually was only 9.2%. Trayvon Walker, same thing. But you have other terrible names in there like Tyree Wilson has really not become anything.

51:00He was at 8.1 % as a rookie. Shamar Stewart last year, I think similar brand of player, 7.5 % last year. And so I think when you look at it statistically, you can see some of these guys who turned out, but even some of those success cases, Derek Hall, Chase Young, Trayvon Walker, none of them are star pass rushers. And really none of the guys in that range really ended up becoming that. That's kind of the bargain you have to make with him, which we kind of knew coming in, right?

51:24Robert Mays: Yeah. And also I would say, you know, with Chase Young and Trayvon Walker specifically, those are like top two picks with like freaky freaky traits and i understand that michael williams was a top 11 pick in the draft right like there are certain elements physically to his profile that are exciting but he is not the explosive type of athlete that those other guys are where you can kind of build in a certain level of progress as pass rushers just because that explosiveness will show up right like that the run stopping for trayvon walker and just what he can be as a role player kind of sets the floor and then he becomes a better pass rusher over time in part because of those tools Michael Williams doesn't really have that level of explosiveness and so I think it's harder to build the optimistic case for him turning into a player that you're going to pay what did Trayvon Walker make this offseason a lot of money yeah I mean like it's I just think that it's it's harder to get there with Michael Williams being a 22 million dollar a year player in the way that Trayvon Walker is now.

52:25Robert Mays: Again, because I think the tools just aren't quite at the same level. He's an interesting player. And you watch what he is on early downs against the run. And I think that part of it is what it was supposed to look like. Like, it's very hard for him to get moved. You feel the length. He is a real mismatch for tight ends in that area. Like, he is going to put a tight end back into the backfield if you were going to block him one-on-one with a tight end. And he is not going to get moved even by like really big tackles for the most part. He is going to be able to hold up in those moments. And I actually think his instincts against the run beyond the length are good.

53:01Robert Mays: Like his ability to understand angles and read blocks and understand when to slip things. I think his production against the run combined with his ability to hold up against the run, I actually do think moving forward, that is something where he can kind of bridge those two things together. I couldn't agree more. Like as a run defender, he's what they paid for or what they drafted him to be. Like he, there was a play that he had against the Texans. I forget which game it was. Oh, I guess they only played once, but it was a third and one. And they're trying to like down block him with the left tackle.

53:33And he's just inside in like a four eye. And so Ursary is a big man. And so, and he tries to get, he tries to move him on this down block. But Michael Williams feels that it's coming, anchors in his spot, takes his right hand and just throws him across his face and then gets in the gap. And I'm like, holy shit, man, to just be able to like lock down your spot and throw a guy that big across your face. And again, that's an instincts thing to write feeling that you're getting down block, knowing that the run is going the other way. Like, I think those plays you see a lot from him. And so for that reason, I'm really impressed.

54:04Again, a lot of it just comes down to the passing down stuff. Like he's just not a guy where and I think that these were bargains that you knew were going to be the case coming out of the draft. he's not that explosive off the line like you said like he just doesn't give you gas immediately off the edge and I think right now his moves are just kind of underdeveloped he's just a guy who just like wants to push the pocket into you and I think he does a decent job of that but at some point you have to be more than that like at some point you got to do something else here's my frustration though if you want to be like a power player be one yeah yeah that's what's frustrating about him

54:38Robert Mays: is that you watch him and there's just so much uncertainty in the way that he's approaching these situations and it actually is one of the things that frustrated me watching him in college and I think I can't remember who I was talking to about this but I mentioned that I just I wanted a little bit more oomph from him and the part of the response was well he was a little bit banged up last year like he was I think was dealing with a shoulder injury in college and so does that affect like what he might look like in some of those situations and so I was willing to be like okay like I'm I'm open to maybe that changing a little bit and then you go watch him and the game I can't remember which game it was I think it was the there's a Giants game where he actually was he wasn't that productive but you saw him being a little bit more decisive when it was like all right I'm just gonna try to work through the middle of this guy's chest consistently and I liked seeing that even if it wasn't effective because at least he was making a choice there are so many moments with him as a pass rusher where he's getting hands on a guy and just trying to be reactive and especially in this defense like I don't want that like I don't want that on third and seven like just make a decision even if it's a mistake make it at full speed and there just wasn't a lot of that from him as a pass rusher especially on the edge and it just like doesn't make sense even for his skill set like to be reactive at what 270 pounds are you gonna chase down the quarterback like that just doesn't really make any sense he kind of can a little bit but like it's athletic enough to do it but I still don't really understand what he's trying to be as a pass rusher.

56:07Robert Mays: I will say this. I actually do think the best path forward for him, and they did this a reasonable amount. When he slides inside, the plan changes, and I actually think that's where he is most effective. The numbers aren't that great. The pressure rate even when inside wasn't spectacular, but I think part of that is because when he was lined up as a defense tackle in defined passing situations, Michael Williams were talking about, I think one of two things happened. He got used on a lot of games and stunts. And so that is just inevitably going to affect your pressure rates in those scenarios. Like if you're the one who's the looper consistently, or you're the one trying to create traffic for other people that happened a lot, a lot of him and Elf effort Collins on ironically enough, like working together in those games, or it was him trying to be more of like a slithery pass rusher and win with quickness against guards.

56:59Robert Mays: And I actually think he's good at that. So I think the best path forward for him in terms of pass rush production in 2026, if he's going to profile as a similar player to what he was last year, the idea of Nick Bosa, Osio Digizua, Michael Williams inside and like Romello height as your last guy coming off the edge, that's what I want. And I want it to be less funky in terms of the games and stuff they're trying to run. Like with those four guys, let it loose to just like let him loose because I think some of the thinking that you saw from him in those scenarios actually did bog him down in a way we don't always see with the style of defense and that's kind of why it was weird to watch it was weird to watch I really do hope that they just kind of unleashed them in that way because I do think that it could be really good and that's I'm glad you said that about him being used as the pick man a lot of the time like that is important like that's one thing that like doesn't show up in the numbers as a plus for him but they do it a lot because he's really good at it like he creates space for a lot of people and so I think for a first round pick that's obviously a little bit unsatisfactory right like it's I think if we if you're trying to project path forward for him and like what does it look like you want him to play very similar to like a lot of those old Ravens players where it's like a Pernell McPhee as a Darius Smith where it's like he's kind of a power outside rusher and if he can just like really believe in that personality as a pass rusher on the outside great and then when we slide him inside he's a monster you can even slide him they did this a lot on rundowns they would slide him inside like if they wanted to get into like a base 3-4 look or like a bear look or whatever it was going to be they would put him at like three tech or four eye and he's just holding his ground and so again that's like flexibility in that way is not the sexiest thing for a first round pick but he is like a pretty good utility player in a lot of those ways and that's where i would land with this i think i have serious questions about what the pass rush upside looks like for a lot of different reasons Again, I think that like the mental side of it and the confidence part of it, if that comes along, I actually do think that there's a runway for him.

58:58Robert Mays: But where I land with Michael Williams is that even if that never really comes together in the way that you might hope for a top 11 pick, he is a very useful player in like on a good defensive line. Like he has utility because of some of those little things that he does. And you're right. That might be unsatisfactory for a guy who was drafted in the top 11, but I do think that there is a very clear path forward for him being a useful and important player on a good defense. And if that's all he is, maybe that's a little bit disappointing, but I still think that's an okay outcome if you're a Niners fan kind of projecting him moving forward.

59:33I 100 % agree, especially with now the Odegizuwa trade. You already got a little bit more juice in there, and so that solves it. The last thing I will say, I don't want to make it sit here. I agree he needs to just be more confident as a pass rusher. there have been cases of guys doing this, right? Like I think Rashawn Gary struggled with this a little bit early on in his career and was able to overcome that. Khalil Mack is a more talented player, but I think also struggled with this a little bit as a rookie and really into his second and third year was just like, oh yeah, I am stronger and a more kick-ass player than these guys.

59:59I'm just going to do that. And so I think that there are cases where guys can get better at this, but I get why you would want to be a little bit concerned because there are guys on the other. And like Lucas Van Ness, I think it has been like a long road to try to get him to be more of that style of player, for example.

1:00:13Robert Mays: And Rashawn Gary is an interesting guy to bring up. Rashawn Gary also was extremely young. Rashawn Gary was 21 as a rookie. And, you know, I think that it took him a little while for it all to come together. Michael Williams is 21 now. He has birthdays in a few weeks. Right now. And so it's not, it should not be surprising that he might be swimming a little bit. And maybe it's going to take a little bit for all this stuff to come together. But there's nothing about what I watched this morning that to me is like disqualifying for him becoming a good player, even if there still is a lot of, there still is a big gap that he has to close.

1:00:46Robert Mays: Yeah, Alfred Collins is kind of a strange player to watch. He is so tall that when you watch him, especially from behind, he doesn't look like a 330 pound player. And he is pretty explosive, even if he doesn't always know how to channel that. And so the pass brush production from him and CJ West was very bad last year. like both of them were sub 4.5 % pressure rate. I think if you look at just defensive tackles in the league on next gen, both of them were like in the bottom 10 or 12 overall, CJ or Alfred Collins wasn't supposed to necessarily be that sort of player. And so I think that his ability to hold up against the run, again, him being more of a, again, not a pure pass rush guy.

1:01:28Robert Mays: Like that's not how he was supposed to impact the game. You can excuse that a little bit more, but overall, I think that I get what you, I totally agree with what you said about CJ West. That's why you need a guy like Osodigizua. Even if the Alfred Collins rookie year wasn't necessarily great, I do think that there is enough there for me to feel pretty good about what he can be in year two. I do have some faith that that package of traits in a second season can look much better. You can see the path with him. And even if for his size he is not as holed up against double teams as much as you would think, that's also kind of fine for the way that they typically run and build the defense, where it's just like you need to have a little bit of pop to like you're probably never going to play with a guy who is like a dj reader in the style of defense like that's just not really how it works but it's the cate mcdonald thing in houston is interesting right like well yeah maybe they're gonna try to change so but i agree with you i i think that he is explosive enough for a big man where i can see a path forward for him even if it was a pretty uneven rookie year so let's move to the back seven here who do you want to start with so i think obviously a number of these guys have have played over the last handful of years i think there are three that are like to me you want to move forward with them pieces which to me is malik mustafa who had missed some time last year um renardo green the outside corner and then upton stout who is their nickel i want to start with malik mustafa i love him dearly he is that is one of our goblins in this league like he that man just wants to fly down and hit people there there's a sect of safeties right now that they play in defenses that very often ask them to be like late fitters down into the box I'm thinking like Evan Williams is incredible at this Reed Blankenship is incredible at this uh Talano Hufanga is amazing at this obviously came from the same defense Malik Mustafa was like the perfect Hufanga replacement so there's a couple of plays that he doesn't make because he's on the little bit smaller side but like I think mentality like he sees things very well and I think he tackles well generally I think that he's a really really good player I think Upton Stout is in a little bit of the same category as the nickel and he's a funny one too because I think he's a good player he like he plays completely insane I think even if he misses some tackles size wise he is still a plus tackler because of how quickly he gets there and how much he's bringing it his closing speed is insane whether it's killing screens getting in on the run fit whatever it's going to be I just think that he's interesting in that most teams or a lot of teams are moving away from these 185 190 pound nickels and he is one of them but I think he they can probably get away with it with him because he is so aggressive and insane you the the deep the mindset about how they build those defensive lines and why they don't necessarily need these like massive two gapping plugging types is that they're going to win with like penetration and aggressiveness like they're going to win on their way to the quarterback they're going to win making negative plays in the backfield and that's kind of how the dbs work too Like, you don't think about that.

1:04:29Robert Mays: But when you watch those two guys play specifically, the amount of plays that Malik Mustafa is making in the backfield is crazy. And the same goes for Upton Stout. There was a screen that the Texans tried to run on like third and three that he just snuffs out from the beginning and makes a play behind the line of scrimmage, completely torpedoes the drive. And you see plenty of that stuff from Mustafa as well. And so I'm with you. Like, I do think that even in space, I think with Upton Stout specifically, that there is work to be done after what he looked like as a rookie. But just the disruptive nature of both of those guys, I think there's a lot to be excited about.

1:05:05There is. Like, he's, yeah, his work in space is interesting because I think sometimes, like, change of direction or keeping his head on a swivel can be a little bit up and down. But the closing speed once he goes is actually pretty damn impressive. And so, but that's the thing. If we can unlock that, like, 15 % more of the time, I think he could be a really good player. Renardo Green on the outside, I think, is also an interesting one. I think he's a good player, but I think he is good in very specific ways. I struggle with him a little bit as a zone corner, especially when he's playing high over these vertical stems.

1:05:39I think he's just a little bit slow to see stuff. I think he kind of weighs steps in and out of his breaks. As a man coverage defender, I think he rocks. He has very quick feet when he's tight with guys. I think his hips are really smooth when he does that. He reads routes really well. He's really aggressive. And so it's just they have this their secondary is built in a really weird way, right, where a lot of these guys are kind of undersized, but play like assholes. And it kind of works like they just have a very funny build to this secondary that I generally enjoy.

1:06:09Robert Mays: So last year, the Niners finished 28th defensive DVOA. It almost doesn't matter because no Bosa, no Warner. And then they trade for Odigizua this year. So now you look at this defense. It's all the young guys that we're talking about here. Dre Greenlaw comes back, which I think is, you know, we'll see how that goes. But if you're trying to figure out what is a reasonable expectation for this group getting all of those stars back, replacing Robert Sale with Raheem Morris. But what is a reasonable expectation for the 2026 49ers defense based on what you just watched with the young guys? I would be I would be pleasantly surprised if they're a top 10 unit.

1:06:50But if they are like a slightly above average, give you some feisty, pretty good games unit, I don't think that that would be that crazy.

1:06:57Robert Mays: What do you think prevents them, like holds them back from being that sort of top 10 group? So I think part of it is them having linebacker depth in previous years, I do think was huge. Like they used to have three guys deep and now their second linebacker is probably Dre Greenlaw after like multiple years of injury and bringing him back. And so I just wonder if that's going to be an issue. I also do think there is some element of I trust Bosa and Warner to come back to some level and be star players. It's been a lot of injuries for Bosa at this point. And also Warner is coming off an injury. So even if they're good, but 85 percent of themselves, I think that is a little bit preventative.

1:07:32And then the secondary, while I think talented, I do think had a good number of communication issues last year, especially when they were trying to like sort out bunches or motion and stuff like that. And I think some of those young players developing there, going into a new system, trying to understand a new defense. I wonder if how buttoned up that's going to be able to be in year one.

1:07:55Robert Mays: Top half of the league sounds right. I think that's a reasonable expectation. If they're a little bit better than that, maybe you are pleasantly surprised. I am getting to this point now. We did the supporting cast this week. We're going back and watching the young Niners defenders where it's like, all right, am I how much am I talking myself into what this team can look like? if the health lock is like 80th percentile, right? If you get a dozen games out of everybody and if there's multiple guys hurt, it doesn't overlap. Like you escape the regular season as just a normally injured team. What do the 49ers look like?

1:08:28Robert Mays: I think I'm starting to get pretty excited about the answer to that. Dude, I think they're going to be good. They won so many games last year despite being completely ravaged from hell, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Like their two best players did not play the entire season, basically. And obviously the defense wasn't that good. But for them to have won as many games as they did and even make like the division kind of go down to the wire at certain points like they I think they're going to be a pretty good team. If all three of those teams stay relatively healthy. And obviously, I mean, this is we're recording this at about 315 on Tuesday.

1:09:02Robert Mays: and the Alaric Jackson news came out earlier today, which seems like there's another domestic violence situation with him. Does he miss time? Like that aside, if these teams stay relatively healthy, it's just going to be, I mean, that three-team race in the NFC West is going to be absolutely ridiculous. I mean, the Niners made it interesting last year, let alone what they can do this year with some of the additions that they've made and some of the guys coming back. They were playing for the one-seed week 18. Yes. Yes. I really do. Some of that is schedule driven, right? Like I think that they would need to be a significantly better team this year in order to make it that interesting again.

1:09:41Robert Mays: But I think when you look at, I don't know, just like here, let's let's. I think my way I would put a pin on it, if any of those three teams are the best team in the league again next year, I don't think it would be that surprising to me. But I think that what my point is, we're not talking about the Niners that way. Right. We are talking about the Seahawks and the Rams that way. I don't think we're really talking about the Niners that way. And so I'm, I wanted to look up the numbers just out of curiosity. So yeah, I mean, I guess right now, if you look at like an objective measure, like FPI, which is the football power index on ESPN, the Niners are fifth, right?

1:10:20Robert Mays: The Niners are behind the Rams, the bills, the Ravens, the Seahawks, and that they're fifth. I think that's right. Like, I think that's well within the range of outcomes. If they stay healthy, if those young guys on defense, take a step, if, you know, Mike Evans plays, again, like a dozen games, can they be the best team in the league by the end of the season? I don't think that's insane. I really don't think it is, man. Like, if the offense is clicking a little bit and the defense, because the thing is, even with the defense, even if they're just average, but at the end of games you have Bosa and Warner being able to make plays for you, there is that little bit of X factor that is like, okay, man, they can do something.

1:10:55Robert Mays: I mean, it's the same thing as last year, right? Like, the Rams defense was really good. look at the advanced numbers over the entire season. But the Seahawks specifically, they were the 12th-ish best offense in the league for most of the year in a truly dominant defense. You flip those, can the 2026 Niners be that sort of team? And I think that there is a path for them to be that sort of team. But yeah, we've already seen the offense do it. All right. Those are our first three real lingering questions. We have three more of these, I'm pretty sure. Three more versions of this show. Three more versions of this show.

1:11:29Robert Mays: So we will have at least nine more questions that we're going to dig into in this same vein. Just stuff that after the way the last year ended, we didn't feel like we had the right amount of time, bandwidth, whatever, to fully figure out the answers to these. And so that's what we're going to be doing here over the next three or so weeks. Very much looking forward to the rest of those. Hope you guys are as well. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

1:12:01Robert Mays: We'll see you next time.

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