Week 1 Preview

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1:26Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Week one is officially here. Niners-Rams is tonight. Our recap from Patriots-Seahawks is available in your podcast feed, is available on our YouTube channel. A lot of excitement swirling around week one, and that's what we dug into today. Our week one preview over the years has always been different than the other previews that we do over the course of the season. This is mostly just a celebration of football being back and the things we are most excited to watch on the week one slate.

1:59Robert Mays: What are some unit matchups that we're curious about? What are some teams that we can't wait to see what it actually looks like after we've speculated about who they might be on offense or defense over the course of the season? As Derek brought up, who's the rookie that's just good right away? These are the things that we have to sort through in week one. And so that's what we talked about today. All of the different considerations as we get to open up week one NFL football again for the first time. Looking forward to that. Enjoy this conversation. Me, Dave, and Derek. Let's get to it right now.

2:40Robert Mays: We made it. We've got football starting in about five hours. recording this on Wednesday afternoon. By the time you guys are listening to this, the recap of Patriot Seahawks will be available wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. So obviously a lot of anticipation today. We're going to do our version of a week one preview today. This show over the last couple of years has looked different than a traditional preview show might look in part because we haven't seen these teams at all. And so digging into whatever speculation there might be about what they might do I've never enjoyed that version of a week one preview.

3:17Robert Mays: I'd rather just talk about what we're excited to watch this weekend and what we are most curious about as it relates to these games. So that's what we're going to do today. Just a smattering of thoughts, curiosities, things that you want maybe an answer on from a lot of the games that we're going to be watching during week one.

3:35Dave Helman: I mean, we do two months of trying to figure out what these teams are going to look like and then like trying to do it one more time through a very specific lens of like what will it also theoretically look like against this other team that we don't know enough about. It's I think this is a more fun way to do it because we also do by this point in the calendar. The last like two to three weeks leading up to the season, it's pure excitement. It's like, let's go. Like, let's get this off the off the starting.

4:00Robert Mays: That's where I'm at right now. I'm just excited to watch football, and I'm hopefully going to channel that enthusiasm into the conversation that we're having today. I've been there. And also, a third of these results are going to be Fugazi. It's not going to matter. We were so—and I regret nothing—but we were so excited about that Steelers-Jets game. It's such a perfect, classic Week 1 representation.

4:24Dave Helman: Can we actually kind of start there before we even get into the stuff that we're excited about? I do think one like overarching thing that's always fun about week one is like, which results are going to be the ones that are completely fake? Because of the five games that feel fake or insane, one of them becomes real. Because last year we had the Colts. It was the Colts. Yes. And last year we had the Raiders beating the Patriots week one. And Gino looked good. He threw for like 400 yards. That was not none of that was real. The Patriots went to the Super Bowl and the Raiders were horrible. The Vikings Bears game week one.

4:54Dave Helman: People were like, is JJ McCarthy better than Caleb Williams? By the end of the season, or by now, J.J. McCarthy is third on his own team, and people are like, Caleb Williams might be the next thing. The Jets-Steelers game, which you just brought up, which we were like, oh my God, both of these offenses, it's what they wanted it to be, and all this stuff, and that was completely fake. And then you had the Colts throttling the Miami Dolphins, and that one turned out real, because the Colts were really good for eight weeks until Daniel Jones got hurt, and that kind of did look like the end of the Tua Tungabailoa era, and by the end of the season, that's exactly what it was.

5:25Robert Mays: Well, the whole point is that there's no way to predict which of those right yeah i'm not gonna predict them yeah that's gonna be something we just have to sort through yeah in both the week one preview and then we should do after week two don't we beller there is this real midweek episode yeah we will do that again i mean that's one of the things we've done consistently over the years every single season it's such a good it's such a good episode it's so fun it's so good to like lay down those markers while knowing that you can't possibly know if it's real or not of course so but we will have that conversation but those considerations about all right how much of this is actually meaningful and how much of this is just week one bullshit it's an annual tradition i mean it's one of my favorite parts of the start of any nfl season i can't remember which year it was but i i want to say i was at the ringer and so it might have been the 2016 season was that the year that trevor simeon started 4-0 for

6:13Dave Helman: the broncos that's what that's right yeah yeah that was the year where there was part of my brain

6:19Robert Mays: that was like i wish we wouldn't have to discuss any of this over the first four weeks i wish it We all collectively agreed in the football content space for the first four weeks of the season, no one said a word about anything, and we could just pick it up in week five, but obviously that is not how any of this works.

6:34Dave Helman: Another one that always sticks in my mind, in 2021, the Jameis Winston Saints beat the Packers 38-3. Aaron Rodgers won the MVP that year. It was just like, I don't know. It was the 16 Broncos. I'm sorry, but yes, buyer beware of anything.

6:51Robert Mays: That was my first year during it. That was why, yeah. I was just thinking, daydreaming about two years ago, week one, the Bucs trounced the Jaden Daniels commanders. That was a weird team, right? It took them a little while to figure things out. That offense was so fake over the first month. And I think that's also part of this is that even if we can acknowledge that the week one results are often very fake, we're going to extend this further into the year where teams are still figuring it out. And I honestly think, and this might be just anecdotal and recency bias, but it feels like with so many of these teams, and I think just the sheer nature and turnover that we're seeing with the play callers, there's going to be more examples of this this year where, man, just give it a few weeks.

7:33Robert Mays: There's just so many new offensive systems, so many new defenses. I honestly feel like the first month of the season might be as fake as it's ever been because of the turnover that we're talking about. And so just keeping that in mind as we're trying to digest the first four weeks or so is worthwhile. Let's dig into some specifics. Let's talk about some things that we are most excited, curious about with the week one slate. Davey, kick us off. What was the first thing that you wrote down when you were talking about what you wanted to watch with this group of games? I mean, it's basic, but I think that's OK.

8:06And I'll actually I'll zig where you might think I zag because it would be easy to say Bills Texans should be the Sunday night game. but I kind of love that it's just in the, in the noon window as just this game where it's like, no, you, you have to pay attention to this. You have to find a way to have this on a screen because it's going to be bonkers. And on top of that, in addition to it just being two teams with a lot of big aspirations, playing each other in week one, this game is in Houston, which has been a horror show for the Buffalo bills over the time that Josh

8:41Robert Mays: Allen has been some real great Josh Allen moments in Houston. We had that horrendous game two years ago. Just the disgusting game he played two years ago. And then the one where that like where Sean McDermott lost his mind about late game strategy. Was that the one? Oh, yeah. I mean, Josh Allen's numbers in that game. He was nine of 30.

8:57Dave Helman: Oh, it's probably since he became good. That might be the worst game that he's ever played.

9:02Robert Mays: It was unwatchable. They were so bad in that game. And then they were playing against the Texans in Houston when he tried to pitch the ball back to his fullback in the playoffs. in 2019. Please don't forget just last year. I forgot about that one. They sacked him like seven times on a Thursday night last year. And that was at home. Eight times. No, that was in Houston, wasn't it? I think that game was in Buffalo last year, wasn't it?

9:24Dave Helman: I don't remember where it was, but I also did have Texans bills for this exact reason. I mean, an eight sack. It wasn't Houston. It wasn't Houston.

9:31Robert Mays: You're right. For whatever reason, I thought that game was in Buffalo last year. It doesn't go well for the bills when they go down there. They're 0-4 in the Josh Allen era in Houston and they're one in six in Houston just since the Texans were founded. Why do you think that the Texans defense gives them so much so many problems?

9:47Dave Helman: I think especially over the last couple of the years, the Bills offense has become about like we're going to run the ball. We're going to insulate the offenses in certain ways and we're not protecting Josh Allen, but we're just trying not to make him Superman, especially when the pass catchers just weren't good enough. That's a front you can't hide from. You cannot hide from how good those guys are. And I think just at a certain point, they just kind of get beat up so fast. And Josh Allen was getting heated up when I think if it was versus lesser corners, Allen would probably be more willing and able to just like chuck some balls up and get it in there.

10:18Dave Helman: But when he's thrown to a pretty mediocre wide receiver core against Derek Steenman and Kamari Lassiter, it's like, I just don't know what you're supposed to do. And I think it's probably going to be fine that Aaron Cromer retired and Alec Anderson is stepping in for David Edwards, especially over a long enough sample of time all that stuff is probably going to be fine is it going to be fine week one against these guys on the road i don't know it's fun let's let's watch

10:44Robert Mays: and find out on sunday afternoon you had bills texans is there anything else specifically that you wanted to point out that you were curious about i mean you uncorked that thing on sunday

10:52Dave Helman: yeah he brings up the you know alec anderson stepping in for david edwards a little bit and i think over the course of the season i think that that will be good for them in this matchup it almost feels worse. Like I would rather have the, have my offensive line be a little bit better. See if we can try to run the ball a little bit better this time around, whatever it's going to be rather than like, I just don't think like, I think DJ Moore will be good and help them a lot against Kamari Lasseter and Derek Stingley. Like I still think that that is huge advantage Houston Texans. And so I think there's a chance that Texans could still lose this game and the bills could find a way to win it.

11:25Dave Helman: I mean, they almost did last year despite how bad Allen and the offense played, But I'm just excited to see if the Texans can really do it again. Because the fact that this really is the only team that pretty consistently dismantles what has been the best offense in the league for a handful of years. I'm just incredibly excited to watch that again.

11:42Robert Mays: What was the first thing you wrote down? First thing. Other than Bill's Texans. Other than Bill's Texans. After Bill's Texans, what was the next thing that you want to talk about?

11:48Dave Helman: The next thing I had was I'm excited for Eagles commanders. Because these are two, not even necessarily in like, I think this is going to be a good game.

11:57Robert Mays: This is the nature of week one. You can any matchup on the slate. It can be whatever you want it to be. You can look at any single. And that's why I don't like to try to zero in on like these are the four games we're talking about. Because I'm 100 % with you. When I look at the week one slate, and we'll talk about it in a second. There's like four games from the new slate where I'm like, oh, man. Browns, Jags, give it to me. Like that's where we're at right now. So it's just so the idea that Derek could sit there earnestly and be like, I'm really excited for Eagles commanders after everything that we've said, everything that all of the stink that's come off the commanders in the last month or so.

12:35Robert Mays: The vibes are just it is not good right now. It's so funny. I had the most cynical reaction to Eagles commanders where like the game itself is interesting. But I was like, why is this Fox's lead game? Like, I don't know what he just said. You had a stinky look on your face because it's a it's a divisional game. I don't know. We're just, we're so familiar with these teams. You're not wrong though, because they're mirror images of each other with the offenses. That's exactly what it is. There is something really intriguing about it.

12:59Dave Helman: Because they will play again in like week seven or eight. I'm not seeing if there's a bye week here. I'm just looking at when they play again. I probably won't care about this matchup as much by then, because I will have answers on what does the offense look like. But until I get those, like I am really interested in what this is going to look like. Cause we spent two, three months trying to figure out how much under center can they really go? like how much is Washington going to really pull down on the no huddle stuff that they had been doing? You know, what is this offensive line going to look like really for both of these teams?

13:27Dave Helman: Obviously Washington has some shuffling around to do. They lose Laramie Tunsil. And it probably doesn't seem like it's going to be a good unit. Last year was a down year for the Eagles, but does being in a new offense, make them look really good again. Can they just be a little bit healthier? What does the Eagles offense look like when they don't have, I mean, when AJ Brown is good and healthy, like the fourth, fifth best receiver in the league on their offense. Like I'm just, What if they still do have the fourth or fifth best receiver in the league on their offense? It's possible. Devontae Smith has that in him.

13:53I really like him, but I'm, I mean, that's another question.

13:56Dave Helman: Like, is he capable of handling that sort of workload? Like that's another, like, does Devontae Smith get 13 targets in this game? Like, are they just like pepper it all to him? Like, I'm just curious what this is going to look like. And I'm really excited to see it.

14:10Robert Mays: It's actually a good matchup to zero in on for that exact reason. And we've talked so much about the speculation around what the offenses are going to be, the quality of it, the structure of it. We're going to get a lot of answers. Not lasting answers, maybe, but in terms of what they're going to try to do and who they're going to try to be, we will have answers on that by the time halftime comes around on Sunday.

14:30Dave Helman: The quality of it is going to wax and wane over the course of the year. But we'll at least get like a, oh, I know what I'm looking for going into week two, week three, week four with some of these matchups.

14:38Robert Mays: So it's very telling that the games I wrote down were all just in the noon window because for two reasons. The noon window rocks. That's what football is, man. The noon window is pretty sick. So if you look at the noon window, the only game in the noon window, I guess there are two of them. It's not that I'm not interested in them. It's that we have peak nonsense potential. Falcon Steelers is peak nonsense potential. If we're trying to figure out what might be the fakest game of week one, the one that features the quarterback that it's just a stand in, like he's just there until the other guy is ready to play.

15:12Robert Mays: And so what that means for the Falcons, I'm curious about that. What the Steelers look like. That's the game where I just know something is going to lie to me about what happens during that game on Sunday. It's actually, it's the second thing I wrote down since we're already talking about it. I'm not usually this guy. My eyes bugged out of my head when I saw the line on this game. What is it? It's Steelers three and a half at home. Does that seem way too low? Does it not seem incredibly low? That is a we have no idea about anything. Yeah. Commentary on week one of the NFL season. This feels like the easiest money Vegas has ever given out, which they don't do, which scares the shit out of it.

15:52Yeah, that's the wrong way to think about it. But so, well, that raises two possible outcomes. either this is the easiest money Vegas has ever given out and they're drastically overthinking this thing or Mike McCarthy's tenure in Pittsburgh opens with a home loss to the Tua Tungavailoa Falcons. That that'll be the shortest honeymoon of all time. Like good God. So like all of the outcomes in play here are very, very fun for a neutral observer.

16:18Robert Mays: That one has peak nonsense potential. And the other one in that slate is what is jets Titans going to be?

16:25Dave Helman: this is the game neither of these teams are going to be good and somebody has to lose it you cannot be the one who gets embarrassed here like if you are the jets or the titans and you lose like 30 to 10 your season's already over like i don't need like it's you can you have to at least make this competitive against the other bad team and we also have the robert saller revenge

16:44Robert Mays: angle of this yeah i didn't even consider that yeah they talked about it a little bit this week obviously both sides have tried to downplay it but i mean that is part of this right that is part of

16:51Dave Helman: the discussion around this game and for half the defensive roster it's got to place for the jets

16:56Robert Mays: those are the two games that i think have peak nonsense potential in the noon window but to go along with that there are a lot of games that i did kind of want to dig into substantively and like what i'm watching and what they might look like the first thing i wrote down this is the this is just peak week one bullshit the first thing i wrote down was lion saints how much better does the saints run game look that is that is the first thing i wrote it's very on brand for that to be your big note on a on the lions season opener because that might be answered on the hangover this week the reason that i went there is because i have the saints in the winds pool and i think that there are two things two things about this game that i find interesting and that i'll be watching one the saints defense was good last year and so the idea of good on good with the Lions offense against the Saints defense.

17:45Robert Mays: Should we be thinking about that way? Was the Saints defense a mirage in the back half of last season? Are they going to be good again? Is it actually a decent kind of good on good test in week one? That's the first place my mind went. The second one was in looking at the Saints and why I thought they could be a much improved team this year. It was that if you look at the overall aggregate numbers for the Saints offense last season, they were very bad. A good chunk of that, it reminds me a little bit about the discussion we've had about the Texans, where if you look at the EPA per dropback numbers, they're not horrendous.

18:13Robert Mays: They're middle of the road. The run game is what sunk this offense consistently last year. That's why the numbers overall look so bad is because they were one of the worst run games in the league. We talked about this with the Texans getting to a place where could they be a league average run game? And what would that mean for the offense overall? Shouldn't we be having the same discussion about the Saints that added David Edwards, that added Travis A. Chan, that get Eric McCoy back? If the Saints are the 16th best rushing offense in the NFL combined with what we saw from the passing game last year.

18:43Robert Mays: That to me is that their quickest route to being a playoff caliber team in the NFC South. And so if the run game looks good against the Lions team, where the front is what should carry their defense, doesn't it reframe a little bit about what our expectations for the Saints might be? I've gotten the vibe from you all summer. You're just, you're very, I'm not saying it's a bad thing. You're very trusting, or you've come across very trusting that Tyler Shuck is going to be as good or better than he was in the second half of last year. And that's completely plausible. I just think I want to see it.

19:16And so much of who the Saints are going to be hinges on Shuck's performance. That does matter, but that's where my brain goes immediately when I think about the Saints. It's like, what does Shuck look like?

19:26Robert Mays: I think a part of my, I don't know if you'd call it optimism, but part of my intrigue with them is that even if he's not substantially better. If all of that stuff comes to fruition. If all of that stuff around him improves and the defense remains good, I don't need them to be one of the best teams in the league to justify my interest in them. I just need them to be an interesting team in the NFC South. And I think the most important component of that is what the line and the run game infrastructure end up looking like.

19:52Dave Helman: Because we kind of talked about this on like the division previews, like in eight win season where they look improved on offense and you feel good about the infrastructure like that is success. And the run game getting to like average and Shuck even being marginally better than he is like, that's probably all it's going to take.

20:07Robert Mays: Like, yeah, I just, I think, again, I picked them to win the division. I have some stake in the game when it comes to them that you guys don't have. And so I think I'll just be watching the Saints with the level of curiosity that I've put upon myself. But I am there. I do appreciate that they're getting thrown into the deep end. Like, as fun as a Saints-Falcons game or a Saints-Panthers game might be, let's start this thing off with a team that we think highly of. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about a few more of these games that have piqued our interest.

20:35Robert Mays: Are you the kind of sports fan that wants to dig into the story behind the stats? Join The Athletic Live on YouTube to cover all the sports stories you can't stop talking about. On game days, we'll watch the biggest matchups alongside The Athletic's most tapped-in reporters, and you can become part of the show in the interactive chat. The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube. Football season has arrived, and with the U.S. Bank's Smartly Visa signature card, you earn an unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase, including at the stadium or at home watching on a brand new TV.

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23:55Robert Mays: All right, Dave, what's up next for you? Another game you've got on your radar for week one. You mentioned the noon window and I'll talk about it. So you don't have to, I love the juxtaposition and bears Panthers. It was not my list. I love the juxtaposition in this game because it's, it's such a, it's such a tale of two sides of the ball game where like the units that should make both of these teams good or give them the best shot to be good are getting good, fun, early season tests. Jalen Phillips going against the bears offense, the, the Panthers whole defense. I mean, I think highly of this unit.

24:29I think it could be a unit that makes a substantial leap in, in this season with, with Devin Lloyd and Jalen Phillips on the roster. I hope not. Sure. Well, of course. And what does the bears offense look like? How quickly do they hit the ground running? how much of a test can the Panthers defense give them? And that's good and fun. But the sicko angle of this might be even better where the Bears are like, if we can't do something with the Panthers offense, it's going to be a long year. And the Panthers offense is like, if we can't do something with the Bears defense, it's going to be a long year.

25:00So figuring out which of those two units gets the better of the clown show aspect of this matchup, it's very fun for me personally.

25:08Robert Mays: I think you could, if you told me, let's just say the over-under is two and a half. the amount of times that we get shown the graphic of the Bryce Young, Caleb Williams trade. If it's over the bears win.

25:20Dave Helman: Yeah. The more time we spend talking about that is it is a good thing. I was so, I'm so enamored with trying to watch the bears pass rush, get to Bryce Young and trying to, you know, all of that stuff. I didn't even really think that hard about the trade. I mean, I know it's in the background and it'll always be an interesting dynamic in this particular matchup, but. I just, these are such one-sided teams and them going against each other at the beginning of the season is very fun. I will say like, obviously the Bears defense has a whole litany of issues, but until, because the Carolina Panthers offensive line is so banged up, I'm not sure what they're going to look like running the ball.

26:00Dave Helman: And because their best mode of offense is like Tedrow and McMillan is down there somewhere, at least the Bears having a corner who can like match up with him and limit that a little bit. It's like that at least gives us The Bears defense in a weird matchup, like a decent chance to actually like kind of hold their own. It's not like it's a bad matchup for a bad defense. They are pretty heavily favored for a road team.

26:22Robert Mays: Three-point road favorites. The Bears are? Yeah. There's eight games in the noon window where we're going to have to start thinking about how we distribute them. If the Bears are going to get their own TV. Can I just jump in really quick here and say that, Robert, the best thing about moving everyone here and having our studio is that now Tafts universally refers to it as the noon window, the noon games. It's beautiful. We've won. We've won the war. You're in on this, Dave. I mean. Your home time zone? I've done both. I can't get behind morning football. I know a lot of people like it. I understand that you're done with football earlier in the day.

26:57It's beautiful. It's nice to be able to go get dinner when Sunday night football's over. Do you ever do that?

27:02Robert Mays: Do you ever really do that? I did it like twice in the whole time I lived there. No, this is God's time zone. It's better. We'll figure out what the district is. I'll spend some time thinking about how the TV should be situated. I trust you to figure it out. We also, like, you can pull it up on your monitor maybe. I don't know. We got options.

27:19Dave Helman: I'm okay putting Jets, Titans on my own monitor as a curiosity. Oh, no. They'll all be up there.

27:24Robert Mays: We've got four TV. The multi-view. We have to remember we can re-embrace the multi-view. It's a matter of who gets the biggest screens. Yes. We have four TVs or four games per TV. We have four TVs. There's a lot of different ways that we can do this. All right, Derek, what's up next for you? the next game, the next matchup, the next element of week one that you want to talk about?

27:42Dave Helman: Yeah, I'll go to my last game specific thing that I really have here, and I'm going to continue doing the bit. I'm excited to see the Kyler Murray Vikings, man. Like, I'm just really excited to look like it's because I think it's going to be good, but I think it's a mix of I do think it will be good. And I'm still like not positive what it's going to look like when like when it's all put together like how much are they going to lean on the run game what is the run game going to look like what is their play action menu going to look like because I do think with Kyler it has to be a lot of you're throwing like deep stop routes or deep comebacks or deep like post routes it's stuff that is it's not the Jared Goff we're throwing 10 digs a game sort of offense and so I'm just curious can they sprinkle in at least a little bit of that to keep defenses honest and so I think it's like the perfect mix of I'm excited to see it because it will be good and also I just don't know exactly what it's going to look like all the beats of it for better or for worse that takes rating off radiating off of Packers Vikings are going to like nuclear Geiger counter like don't go near it without a Geiger counter because if the Vikings win it's like the future is now old man get the hell out of here with your Packers bullshit it's all over for Green Bay and if the Packers manage to win they are not favored if they manage to win without Micah and all the stuff we've outlined a dozen times if they win this game the the chest thumping from packers fans is you're

29:06Robert Mays: going to be able to hear it from from here i love there are four games in the late window we'll have two division games where there's a lot of intrigue it's almost like the four the three dragons meme except it's two and two like we have two division games where it's like hell yeah like let's watch this and there's a lot of stuff i want to learn from this and then the other two games are cardinals chargers and dolphins raiders where those just kind of be hanging off to the side they'll be around the they'll be on they'll all be on they will all be on all the games are always on but that distribution of games to me is very funny all right before we move on let's take one more quick break if you're anything like me you would do anything for your pet except maybe take your eye off them and that's why today's episode is sponsored by the aspca pet health insurance program if you've ever found yourself awake at 2 a.m phone in hand googling things like is this normal for dogs?

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32:39Robert Mays: i'm gonna stick in the noon window there's i'm i'm so interested in so many aspects of these games and i don't know maybe just again because i saw them first but i kept going back to so many layers to these that i find myself interested in bangles bucks has so many things that i find intriguing here because they're the units in this game i think that that we have a lot of questions collectively about them. The Bucs offense against the Bengals defense is a matchup with two units that need to bounce back in a huge way. Which of those two groups looks better after an offseason where we expect them to be improved?

33:15Robert Mays: With the Bucs, new offensive coordinator, offensive line healthy, and then that offensive line being healthy immediately presents a worthwhile test for a Bengals front that just feels completely different than it did last year. Dan Pitcher today was talking to reporters, the offensive coordinator for Cincinnati, and he was talking about what it feels like to just be at practice with a defense like that. And he was describing that it's just a visceral difference when you have a defense filled with those sorts of players compared to what you had last year. And I'm sure the Bucs feel that way about having the offensive linebacker.

33:48Robert Mays: The Bucs probably feel that way about their own defense. And so you have this Bucs defense now going against the Bengals offense, which to me is a sneaky one for how both of those units will look different. How much better does the Bucs front feel we've talked so much about the evolution of the Bengals offense and how they're going to do things differently if we want to take things to a really granular level this is a Bucs defense that played with blocked boxes at the third lowest rate in the league last year per next gen they're going to put bodies near the line of scrimmage if you're playing in a way that seemingly justifies it well the Bengals are going to try to play that way do the Bucs respond that way or do we get a out of light boxes because it's Cincinnati.

34:28Robert Mays: And if that's the case, can the Bengals run the ball into those looks? That becomes the first real test of this Bengals hypothesis of, all right, if you're going to play that way, we can hammer you on the ground. Now, if you're not going to play that way, you're going to give us those one-on-one matchups. You're going to play some single high against us. Can we throw the ball over the yard? And so what the Bucs choose to do becomes kind of the first data point in how teams play against the Bengals and what their pivot off of that plan looks like week one.

34:56Dave Helman: I'm jazzed about what the Bucs defense might like. I mean, I've said for, I think, the last month. Now, they've been a team that, you know, I think over the course of the offseason, like some teams you start to sour on or some, like you start to look at it in a different light by the end. I'm not noticing the Bucs love over the last couple weeks. By the end of the offseason, I was like, I don't know, dude. I think the Bucs are going to be kind of good. And so I'm just, I think.

35:13Robert Mays: Does the Baker contract make you feel better about the Bucs? This year, right now. It makes me feel better about the Bucs. Like right now in this moment.

35:21Dave Helman: Ironically, probably. Things are settled. because they got Veya done too. So I feel like the fact that things are a little bit settled probably is good for them. The irony is I argued throughout the spring for re-signing Baker and in the big picture, I think it's good. But isn't Baker better when he's pissed off? Oh, that's a good, yeah. He might still be pissed off that it took this long. Maybe, yeah. Well, Baker will convince himself he's still mad that it took this long anyway.

35:49Robert Mays: He's got like$120 million. He's going to find out. Baker Mayfield is going to find a slight to amplify and live off of.

35:56Dave Helman: He will. But with the defense, I am curious about how they want to go about stuff because Cincinnati, they draw the most too high cloud type of cover because, yeah, Jamar Chase and T. Higgins, why wouldn't they? And Bowles typically is a guy who wants to crowd the box and he wants to have a bunch of guys in there. Last year, I think they did that in part because they were so bad that it was like the only way we can win on defense is stop the run on first down.

36:21Robert Mays: and like they've done that pretty consistently but that's the thing is like they've always done that exactly that is that's part of their identity right that's what bulls does but i am curious does

36:29Dave Helman: like does a guy like reuben bain who can buy you a little bit more space with the way that he sets the edge does that help you does does does josiah trotter who can come back and take back space and maybe buy room for two high safeties coming down to the box like do they play a little bit more of that stuff they're still always going to be a single high fill the box team that's what Todd Bowles does but a couple of more change-ups I am curious to see if they throw that in my favorite wrinkle in Bucks Bengals is that it's a matchup of a team that rips out of the gate every year against a team that takes a month to get going every year I'm so glad you brought that up the Bengals have never been good in September the Bucks are 11 and 5 in the first month of the season and 4 and 0 in openers under Todd Bowles the Bengals are 6 and 10 and 1 and 3 in the last four years.

37:15So, I mean, week one can be a liar, but the Bucs have been better at this over the last four years.

37:21Robert Mays: My cope to that is that this is one of the most normal off-seasons the Bengals have ever had. Every single year. That is true. Burrow's got the calf or Burrow's got the appendectomy or Chase is holding out. Every year it seems like they're dealing with some weird bullshit all August, and this year for the first time, it was a relatively normal training camp in Cincinnati.

37:43Dave Helman: it is funny that we've never really seen them have just like a regular start to the season.

37:48Robert Mays: It's something every year. Last year was a Trey Anderson thing.

37:51Dave Helman: Yeah.

37:51Robert Mays: Like every single year, there's something happening with the Bengals this time of year. And this season, it was actually pretty spotless in terms of what their August felt like. All right, Dave, you got anything else for me? I mean, we've gotten this far. Well, first of all, I can't believe we haven't mentioned Ravens Colts. I was about to. That was next on my list. I'll save Ravens Colts for you and I'll do I'll do the Sunday night game Cowboys Giants. It was already interesting and obviously it sucks that Tyler Smith had to go to IR with his thumb injury, but taking the best piece of your offensive line out before you play this front should complicate things.

38:29And I think, I don't know. I think this is the most excited I've been about a Cowboys-Giants game in a long time. Because, like, the Giants have just been a speed bump for the Cowboys for a decade at this point.

38:41Robert Mays: Was that week one game two years ago? It was all the way back in 2023, the 40-0 game. Three years ago, yeah. Which, that's the funny thing. Like, the Giants have tried to convince themselves that, like, this year will be different for three or four years at this point. And that 40 to nothing game was the ultimate example of like, just calm down. You don't have to be back overnight. But I do think that this could be a stressful affair. And not a lot of Cowboys-Giants games have been stressful, other than, ironically, that overtime game last year was wild. I need it to not be a stressful affair.

39:13Well, yeah, you're bought in on the Cowboys now. But it'll be fun watching Dak navigate this pressure, which I think he can do. But I think the Giants can bring some juice against them.

39:23Dave Helman: And I will say sometimes this like Fangio Minter style of defense where you're playing a lot of too high, the teams with running quarterbacks give them some issues, whether that's as a scrambler or whether that is in a design run game. Like Dart himself played pretty well against Minter's Chargers last year, especially as a runner. And so Parker kind of instilling that similar style of defense. I do think that there's a chance that especially in week one, it's just like a weird ass game where he's able to run for like 80 yards and just kind of pull off some plays that way. We talk about this all the time on the show, but like the way we do the show means unless it is a Titanic Sunday night football, we're probably only paying half attention while we work on a dozen other things.

40:06Obviously, I'm going to be invested in the Cowboys.

40:08Robert Mays: We're going to talk about the Sunday night game this week for week one. We'll talk about that. that's great to know but i just i love the mental image of you being right there with me like investing with the cowboys or two i already have so many regrets about it but at this point we're in so there's no going back but as long as they score 40 i don't care if they yeah week one is the week to do it for sure i just want to see the offense come out and look like it's humming that's the entire because i think people have kind of misconstrued i can't remember what it was i joked about the tyler smith injury earlier this week about how i've been on the cowboys for like 10 days and then this happens and people are like oh well you know it's all about the christian parker part of this anyway it's like not really like the this is rooted in the cowboys being the second best offense or the best offense in the league that's where all of this starts and so even if you can harbor some excitement and some enthusiasm and some optimism about the giants defense being better which i absolutely think you can i don't think that improvement is so big that the cowboys offense that a lot of us are collectively excited about you pick them number two in the offenses draft should come out and really be able to have some success in this game inverse of your Saints question to all eyes on the Giants run defense without Dexter Lawrence Jermaine Edmonds is there Arvel Reese is there they've added some bodies in the middle and now the Cowboys don't have Tyler Smith yeah if they run all over him anyway that's troubling if you care about the Giants this is again maybe a little bit of coping but TJ Bass is a competent yeah backup offensive line.

41:37Robert Mays: He's played a decent amount. If you're going to have a guy that you have to slot in there, there are worse options to have on your interior defensive offensive line.

41:44Dave Helman: And there's just a chance that both BB and Booker are better this year than they were last year. At least that would be the hope.

41:49Robert Mays: Yeah, and Booker was hurt for a good chunk of last season. I was weirdly not very worried about the Tyler Smith thing. Like, assuming he'll be back in four to six weeks, like, I think they can weather that. That leaves one of us. You didn't have any other game-specific stuff. I'm going to rattle off the two more here. Ravens-Colts. so many things about this. What does the Ravens defense look like under Jesse Minter? How do they play? Like, what is the play style? How do they approach this? How do they use certain guys? What is the overall quality of this thing? And the fact that on the other side of that matchup is an offense that at its best last year was one of the best in the entire league.

42:23Robert Mays: And the quarterback is apparently healthy. Well, Alec Pierce is going to play in this game. What does the Colts offense look like initially? Is that something where they come out of the gate strong? Is that negated by a Ravens defense that might be significantly better than even we think going into the season. And so what those two units look like, very curious about it. And then the Ravens offense period has been an object of curiosity over this entire summer. What do they look like? What is the Dequan Dull version of this thing? How quickly does Lamar Jackson take to it? Does this very quickly become a really dangerous offense?

42:56Robert Mays: Did they sputter a little bit out of the gate? Leaning into a new approach on that side of the ball. So that game to me is just one big mystery box. There's so many different things I'm really curious to get a first glimpse at between those two teams.

43:10Dave Helman: I am also pretty excited for this one. I think with the Ravens, it's I think Lamar Jackson will like look healthier and look good. And I think the offense will be good. To me, it is a matter of like construction. Like how much are they going under center and how much?

43:25Robert Mays: And how quickly do they look? How quickly does it all feel comfortable and cohesive?

43:29Dave Helman: That's the thing. Is this like a little bit like early last year where it's like kind of janky, but they can get some really explosive plays and kind of see what the offense is supposed to be, but it doesn't feel cohesive. Or is this like you remember the Dolphins like week one or two game they played like four years ago where they were just immediately like, oh, they're going to be the best offense in the NFL. Like there's a chance that they could do something like that.

43:52Robert Mays: And so could this be the game that last year's Colts had in week one? Yeah, the Ravens offense. I mean, that's possible. Absolutely. There's going to be one of those, like you said, and figuring out who that is over the course of Sunday, I think is going to be fun. There was a two or three year stretch where the Ravens looked like Ohio State playing Ball State in week one for a few years, where it was just like, it's not supposed to look this easy, even if the team you're playing is not good. I don't know if that's going to happen against the Colts, but it would be fun to see the Ravens hum at that level.

44:20Robert Mays: It's also just something that we haven't really drilled down on specifically over the course of the offseason because I think there still is so much collective optimism about the Ravens. They have a new coach for the first time in a decade and a half, almost two decades. What does that mean for the Ravens? What feels different because Jesse Minter is there? Part of the reason that I think people are still picking them to go to the Super Bowl or be a really good team is that there's enough carryover and enough institutional trust in who they've been. but there is a chance this feels different. Is it for better?

44:51Robert Mays: Is it for worse? That is a question looming over both the Bills and the Ravens, where I think we ascribe a certain level of consistency and familiarity to them because the quarterbacks are there. But in reality, there is a lot of stuff that's new in both of those places. What does that mean, and how quickly do we get a sense of what that is for both of these teams? Last thing for me in the noon window, this is very simple. Browns-Jags also, to me, has potential for nonsense. and that's just in part because the Browns front against the Jags offensive line to me is a very good week one test for a relative that's not even called a relative weakness a potential trouble spot for a team that has playoff aspirations if the Jaguar season goes poorly

45:37Dave Helman: it's because the offensive line is not good enough yeah like that's that's kind of like the long the I think that that's like the easiest marker to put there and so yeah if you don't look good immediately against the Cleveland front that is like good but no longer special I think without Miles Garrett it's like that's that's going to be a problem if they just get beat but the defensive

45:54Robert Mays: tackles are I mean if Malik Collins plays close to the level he played at last year I know he's banged up over there it was banged up in this offseason but if he if he's playing well again if Mason Graham is better Jared versus still here like there are still players on this front that provide a good test for again that that's one of the swing units of the entire season is the Jags offensive line and so this being the week one test I think is particularly notable I also think I mean I think the Jags are the biggest favorite of the week they're eight and a half point favorites I think it's them and the Chargers oh the Chargers are big favorites too you're right either way they're one of the biggest favorites of the week and I think you know I bet they'll be a popular pick for survivor people if you play survivor and I can imagine a world where people are like how are the Jags struggling with the no miles Garrett Brown's defense and it's like no like that's that's a reasonable thing that could happen like if you've been paying attention to both of these units but having said that it would it would be fun if the jags just got out to the races too you had some non-game specific things that you wanted to bring up as part of this

46:55Dave Helman: discussion yeah mine is which of the rookies is just immediately like clearly a guy because last year if we remember tyler warren tied in for the colts in week one had seven catches for 76 yards And a couple of them were like contested, like went up. He went up for like a wheel route and Colin got slammed by the safety, like to the back of his rib cage and like still caught. They rolled out the whole thing for him. Yes, they were like, he's the offense. He did everything. And it was it was just like that's the thing. It wasn't just like he was good. It was like, oh, they're going to build this out of him.

47:28Dave Helman: Emeka Ibuka for the Bucs caught six passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winner on like a deep post route. those two guys were just immediately like oh they're going to be very good for their offenses and obviously the Colts thing sputters for different reasons like Buka gets a little bit banged up but it was obvious that those guys were going to be good I'm just curious to see who it is this year do you have any guesses as to who that might be um so you're a little invested in like an eight catch for 80 yard Carnell Tate game against the Jets maybe because they don't have good corners so yes and so even if I've got questions about what the Titans offense is going to look like I do think that there's a chance that he can just get enough targets against some shaky corners that that's going to work um venga you want a against these defensive tackles i don't expect him to be good necessarily because that's a really tough matchup with buckner and stewart but that's one of those like if he looks good immediately against that duo it's like they've

48:18Robert Mays: got a guy he's somebody that we just haven't talked that much about this summer you want as we've talked about the ravens and just why they could feel different i thought he looked good he's just somebody that we haven't talked that much about i watched him against philly and he looked exactly how I expected him to look on draft night the idea that their starting center right now is Jovan Gwynn you know I think that's that people have been more concerned with that and the Danny Pinter part of this and I think we have been about what Ioana could look like and how different the physicality of their interior could be with him and John Simpson and I think it is just a

48:52Dave Helman: little bit of like kind of what you're saying David like how we talked about him as a prospect where it's just this I think when we talk about the Ravens interior we're just like oh they fixed the guards they got some guys who can play in there like we don't even really consider the fact that you want is a rookie like we kind of just think like he's gonna step in there and the ceiling we'll see as he develops but it's like we all kind of expect like he's gonna be good

49:11Robert Mays: the floor it was the entire conversation about him in the draft process is that he was like one of the cleanest prospects in the entire draft i don't think we've really explored what a ceiling case might mean for him and for the ravens that's just not something we've talked much about and so getting a sense of that early i think it's going to be a fun thing to watch what else did you have

49:30Dave Helman: anything else uh no that was that was pretty much it for me it's like yeah which just which rookies are gonna pop because there always are a couple that are just immediately that guy's awesome i actually also do think caleb downs but against an offense that like we're unsure how good they're gonna be if he just goes nuclear week one i'm like playing my song man i know we're gonna make more content between now and then so it might it might come up but it feels worth saying good job schedule people broncos chiefs monday night football patrick mahomes at the time people were like is he even going to be back is it going to be a race to get him onto the field not even close so mahomes making his debut at home against the broncos who finally took the division away from them last year uh that is that's cinema as they like to say all right

50:23Robert Mays: That is all we've got as we gear up for week one of the 2026 season. Very excited for tonight. According to this on Wednesday again, very excited for tomorrow. And then we will all be here all day on Sunday. We'll be live Thursday night and Sunday nights on YouTube. Encourage you guys to come hang out with us after the games wrap up. Until then, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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