Week 10 Preview: The top of the NFC takes center stage

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Vikings and Steelers Chargers. Spent a little time on Sicko Street discussing the parallel lives of the New York Giants and the Chicago Bears over the last couple years, not in a good way. And then also chatted about what we want to know coming out of the week 10 slate. Bit of housekeeping before we get to the show. Our first live show is on tap January 7th at Lincoln Hall in Chicago. Extremely excited to finally be making this happen. Tickets are on sale right now for members of our discord. If you're in there, you should be able to see the password that will let you into the presale.

1:04If you're not in the discord, please sign up. This is the time to do it. There are just 250 seats in the venue. So hopefully they will be going pretty quickly. The link to the discord is in the show description and tickets will go on sale to the general public this Monday, November 10th. With that, let's get to the week 10 preview right now.

1:29The week 10 preview is here. We are officially getting past the halfway point of the 2025 NFL season. We got a doozy on our hands this week. We got some great games, a lot of stuff to dig into. The Monday night game, which is the first game that we will talk about on this show, is Eagles-Packers. It is so good that we will be doing our first in-person, from the studio, Monday night football recap this weekend. So if you guys have not checked out any of the recaps thus far on the YouTube channel, this is the game to start with. So let's kick it off with the games of the week presented by BetMGM.

2:05Eagles at Packers. The Packers are two and a half point favorites in this one. Dave, why is this one of our games of the week? I mean, it's very, it's very college football-y to me. I mean, we know that there are big matchups in the NFL every week, But this is these are the preseason contenders, preseason teams that if you're pulling people on who they're picking to go to the Super Bowl, these are two of the three that are getting circled the most often. These are the preeminent powers in the NFC coming into the season. And the irony is for a lot of the season, they haven't really played that way.

2:40I think that's my that's my favorite wrinkle here is that you look at this and you're like, oh, my God, eight out of 10 people picked one of these teams to be in the Super Bowl. and both of their fan bases are just furious or at least have been for large chunks of the season. Do you think that fury is warranted? Like if you were a fan of one of these teams right now, because from where I sit, it's kind of like, these are the natural ebbs and flows of the season. The Eagles are six and two. The Packers are five, two and one. These are very good teams. I'm really excited about this game, but I get to see it from like a bird's eye view.

3:11Do you think that Packers fans losing their minds this week about how last week went and what that portends is warranted? For the Packers, yes. Like the Eagles, we can have a separate conversation. Like they traded for a million players, just had their bye week. They'll probably be okay. The Packers, I think it's like pretty warranted because we've had a couple of frustrations with the way that the offense has been constructed and what they're allowed to get away with, partly because of the quality of the offensive line. They still don't have a guy that they rely on. You go out and lose a game.

3:36Like when they lost to the Browns in what, week three? It was like, okay, every great team, you get one of these, that's fine. You get one. You get one. Then you go out and have the game you can have against the Panthers where you completely fall flat, cannot even score until really the fourth quarter, end of obviously losing that game. And then your best player on offense, Tucker Craft, goes out. I can see how for them this starts to get to a spot of like, OK, the sky is starting to fall just a little bit here. I'm not. It's all it's all in front of the Packers. I know losing Tucker Craft is a huge deal and we'll talk about that.

4:06It's going to be tougher now, but this is still an extremely talented team. We're not closing any books on Green Bay. But if I was a Packer fan, I would be freaking livid, dude. I would absolutely be engaging in name the silliest conversation you can come up with. I mean, there's a lot of fire, everybody. There's I mean, there's a lot of talk specifically about Matt LaFleur's job security. And I'm not saying that I think he should be fired or that he should be in danger of being fired or getting a new contract. But I would be engaging in those conversations if I were a Packer fan. And to go off of your point, Derek, since that Thursday night game against Washington, where people were in good faith talking about an undefeated season in their own locker room, they've played like one good game.

4:51Yeah. I mean, you lose to the Browns, you tie the Cowboys, you mess around with the Bengals for three and a half quarters. Jacoby Brissett scares the bejesus out of you. They played pretty well against the Steelers and then they lost to the Panthers. Like it has been a mind numbing six weeks for Green Bay for a variety of reasons. So yeah, I'm with you. Eagles, I'm a little more willing to wave my hand. Although that is a team that brought back a lot of firepower from a Super Bowl winning team. So I'm going to zig where people might zag and say, I think both of these fan bases are justified in having very high expectations for where their team is supposed to be.

5:28I think that's totally fine with the Packers. If I were a Packers fan right now, I would be very frustrated based on how last week went. I think the Eagles are probably on the other side of that. Because the Eagles are talented. Yes. They can fix the problems because they're talented. We've seen them do it before. I think that's part of it, is that we've seen the Eagles be frustrating and then come out on the other side and win the Super Bowl. And so I think that's part of this. But also, I think that we've seen them turn the corner in a couple different areas. We'll talk about this in a little bit.

5:51They've found an identity a little bit on offense. They're trying things that seem to be working. And with all the reinforcements coming, I do think you could easily make an argument that there are greener pastures ahead for the Eagles, where the Packers, the worst moment of their season is not very far away in the rearview mirror. And so I do think we're at different points for both of these fan bases, even if there have been stretches over the course of the first nine weeks where there's been a little bit of trepidation. I think that's true. And I have a take about the Eagles that I'll share as we get into this.

6:20But just for the sake of being devil's advocate, lose to the Packers and see how it feels. We're three days and a different result away from it swinging back the other way. Well, that's the funniest part about this. The Packers beat the shit out of the Steelers two weeks ago, and it doesn't even matter anymore because it would happen against the Panthers. All right, let's start with when the Packers have the ball in this game because I think that is where a lot of the consternation currently resides about this team and with this fan base. Matt LaFleur obviously is a part of how the operation goes on that side of the ball.

6:51You, I think, have been resistant to Packers skepticism on offense when I have brought it up to you in the past. There are moments where I'll express a little bit of frustration about how uneven it feels and how a feast or famine it can feel at times. And just there's a little bit of a God, there's just something missing, right? Like I just there's a smoothness that this team does not have this year based on how they're trying to operate. You've pushed back on that when I have brought it up in the past. How are you feeling right now after rewashing what the Packers offense looked like against the Panthers last week?

7:25I'm getting there with with being just as frustrated. I will say I think part of that was trying to protect one of my idiot children, Jordan loves, which I do think that he like relatively is, is not as much of the issue here, but like the play calling. And I think the offensive line has been the biggest issue because I, in watching this Panthers game, like for the past eight weeks, we've been trying to figure out like, what is it that feels so disconnected about this? And like, why do they not feel like they can call the offense on their own terms and get to all the stuff that they want? And so after watching a little bit of this Panthers game, to me, I looked at, okay, when I think of the best LaFleur offenses, whether it was all the way back in Tennessee or even early on with like Rogers or what it was early on with Jordan Love.

8:01It was like, okay, they could run the ball on their own terms and be a very successful offense. That's not really been the case this year. On stacked box runs, according to NextGenStats, Packers have the second worst yards before contact this year, and they are 25th in success rate at 32.6. It's the same as the Dolphins, which are not a team that can run on you when they want to run on you. Last year, those numbers were 14th in yards before contact, second in success rate. And so they were just able to run on teams, get into the down and distances they want, get into some more of their play action stuff, throw over the middle.

8:31That bit of disconnection, I think you've started to feel them kind of bleed into the rest of the play calling in the offense. When you're going to try to just swing with haymakers in the passing game, you need a bit of a jab to find consistency on offense. And the run game often provides that for teams. And the fact that it's not providing it for them right now, you can feel that when you watch them. And it's even the types of runs. Like when you go back and you watch like the duo type runs against even a team like the Panthers who their front is fine because they spent a small fortune to improve it, but it's not good.

9:01And they aren't able to dictate the physicality in those moments. You need gap runs, pullers, things like that, more like trick them, dick them runs than a team like this typically would need to employ. And so you feel the difference in the offense because of that. And so when you don't have that stabilizing force and it's all just taken massive shots down the field, I think things can feel like they vacillate pretty wildly. And right now that is the feeling about the Packers offense. Where does it go from here? I don't know. I really don't know. And part of the problem is, I don't know where you turn.

9:35That's the issue here. What can they lean on? We talked about this two weeks ago. Talk about it after the Steelers game. Tucker Craft was the most important player on the offense that wasn't the quarterback. He was the one thing you could turn to. And it's a pretty frustrating place to land considering they spent a first round pick on Matthew Golden. But yet again, you watch this passing game and they've got talent, right? With Christian Watson back, You can feel the juice. Dobbs is a good player, but it doesn't feel like there's any one place you can turn when it really matters. And that is a horrifying place to be because we just did not expect that after drafting a receiver in the first round and Tucker Craft's ascension.

10:10My question there, and I don't know that you can have the answer because the Packers have the results haven't been consistent, but the approach has been really consistent. This is the team they've tried to be and it just hasn't worked without Tucker Craft to be that load-bearing player and to get you out of situations like can they change who they are like maybe a more succinct way to phrase this is like is Matthew Golden not doing more because he can't and he's not ready for it or because the Packers aren't giving him that opportunity and without Tucker Craft like he's not coming back is it time to be like all right young buck let's let's go we gotta build more of the plane out of you moving forward I think that is a great to question.

10:52And that's a great framing for it. And I don't know the answer to that because they don't really feature guys within this passing game and you can survive and even thrive as an NFL offense playing like that. The comparison I've always made with this team and the way that they've tried to build it is essentially what the bills have where it's like, yeah, we don't need like a true number one guy. We can still be the best offense in the league. Here are the differences there. The bills have a you run game, right? It doesn't matter what you're doing to them. They are going to be able to shove the ball down your throat for four quarters.

11:20That's their stabilizing force, even without star receivers. And they have Josh Allen. Jordan Love is a good quarterback. He is not Josh Allen. And so when you remove that component and you don't have that level of run game, this idea of like, oh, we're just going to have like a group of receivers that we feature equally and everybody's going to eat. We're going to get them the ball at their own pace and the way that it makes the most sense. I just don't think you can really operate that way considering some of the other component parts we're dealing with here. I'm just like frustrated. Like it feels like, again you were talking about like they needed the run game to be their jab and I think that that was like a really stabilizing force and they've turned to that to be just the passing game where like the passing game now doesn't have any middle ground it's all we're gonna do these package plays it's gonna be RPOs we're gonna be throwing smoke screens off of stuff all this stuff and I think Jordan Love has actually gotten good at that like understanding what he's getting pre snap knowing how to throw all that stuff and it's kept them efficient but the passing game is either that or we're just gonna take the shot play that's not even connected to a very good run game and Like that's their entire passing game.

12:21I feel like LeFleur needs to take some of the handcuffs off here and kind of like let them be more of a drop back passing game. And just they're going to be more volatile because of that. Jordan Love will probably throw more picks. He will probably take more sacks if you're going to be that kind of offense. And maybe they're scared of the offensive line. Maybe LeFleur scared of his quarterback a little bit. But like that's going to be the only way that they can start to tap into something different from what they've been. I think and it's easy to say this in the middle of a run like they've been on and coming off of a game like Carolina.

12:50but I think I'd be willing to like deal with the swings that come from that than just be frustratingly. You can't even say mediocre. That's the funny thing. Robert said this earlier. They're still like a top 10 offense, but man, they do not feel that way when you watch them. They're like the most frustrating version of a top 10 offense you can have. And so the numbers align with what you're saying, by the way, when it comes to the areas of the field they're attacking. So far this season on throws of 10 to 20 air yards, they have 46 of those dropbacks this season. That is 28th in the NFL. The teams below them are teams that are either completely dysfunctional, like the Raiders, and then teams that make total sense.

13:27The Steelers, based on how Aaron Rodgers plays right now. The Eagles are one of these teams. We know that about Jalen Hurts. The Packers are right there when it comes to how frequently they're doing it. The difference is they are number one in the NFL and EPA per drop back on those plates. And so the perfect example to me, first play of the game, the first drive, it might have been the first play of the game against Carolina. They run a play-action pass with Luke Musgrave coming in like a big over route from the other side and he is open And Jordan love turns it down And so this is another one of those things are they not doing it because they're not trying to do it Are they not doing it because it's not how he wants to play?

14:03But I think accessing that area of the field moving forward However, it has to happen That could be a way where they can maybe turn a corner a little bit and access some a version of this offense That they have not so far Let's talk about the Eagles defense as it relates to this game, because this is a team that there's a chance they look completely different moving forward than they have for a good chunk of this season so far. They feel like a completely new team, mainly defensively with the amount of stuff that they've done. I mean, three trades. We'll see. I don't ascribe the same importance to the Jair Alexander trade as the other two.

14:36I guess we'll see how that ages. Well, here's why I think that's a good question. What are they going to do at corner? That is my like number one question that I have about the Eagles defense. We know what Jalen Phillips is going to be. Jalen Phillips is going to take the Patrick Johnson snaps. That is a good thing overall for the Eagles. And then we'll see what happens with Jihad Campbell and Nekobe Dean. Like they've been playing Campbell on the edge in base defense because he's their best option right now. But does Jalen Phillips even to those snaps? So the linebacker in front stuff, I think I have a decent handle on it.

15:03What they do with Dejean now after the Michael Carter and Jair Alexander trades. That's my biggest question. And Derek, this to me is like a philosophical thing. I think DeGene is a capable outside corner. I don't think he's a good outside corner, especially when you compare that to him being an elite nickel. So the decision that the Eagles have to make, it feels like, do you want to be solid and like viable in two spots? Or do you want to have one defined weakness with an elite, maybe one of the best nickels in the league playing where he should? I'll be very, very curious which side of the line they end up falling on.

15:37I know part of the reason they've been trading for some of these corners is that is that so they can maybe have that a little bit solidity. I would just rather have the elite player play where he's elite like Dejean at the nickel. Other than now, Kyle Hamilton playing there obviously complicates this a little bit. But otherwise, Dejean to me is the best nickel in the league. And so I would rather just have him at the spot that he's elite at. And I, to me, if the front starts to play a little bit better, I think you'll start to feel the cornerback to a little bit. I think that's a good point. You would hope.

16:05I think that's a good point. Just better down in distances. Maybe you get a couple more quick pressures from Phillips. Something like that where you feel that guy a little bit less. And then all of the good stuff you get from Dejean is going to continue. That's a really good point because I think a lot of the games where the corner has been the most noticeable are like the games Jalen Carter didn't play. The Cowboys game, the Giants game. That's actually a really good thing to bring up. I mean, watching Jalen Phillips' snaps in Miami back, I absolutely think he can do enough for this pass rush to mitigate that a little bit.

16:33But to go back to your conundrum, and I get like the word coming out of Philly, and take that for what it's worth. I mean, it's not like they're going to tell the truth about their post-bi-week plans too publicly. But the word coming out of Philly is they don't expect Cooper DeGene's outside snaps to bump that dramatically. I mean, he's already playing like 20, 25 % outside anyway. But I just wonder what that means. You trade Michael Carter to play nickel. like that's what he does so what does that mean does it mean you just thought you needed depth that badly or is that going to happen more than we're giving a credit for I don't know the answer to to answer your question directly if I was nine games away from another Super Bowl run and I had this much talent on my roster and then we'll see what happens with Jalen Phillips but like I'll I'll take Cooper DeGene playing with like a lower ceiling to just sure up a defense that could get us back to a Super Bowl and you can put him back in the nickel next year.

17:35He's a young player. That's the argument about weakling systems in the secondary. That might be the right answer. I just, I think it's an interesting philosophical discussion. I just can't wait to see how they, like I said, I mean, and we didn't even, not that it's going to be crazy, but Brandon Graham is back now. They lured him out of retirement. They've got like five, like five guys that will do something for them that we have no idea how it's all going to look coming out of the bye. And that's really exciting. The defensive changes are probably going to be happening moving forward because of all of these new guys.

18:04The offensive changes for Philly have already happened. And so watching what they did in the two weeks before the bye, where it's all this under center run game stuff, jumbo, under center play action. It does feel like this offense is kind of starting to find itself under Kevin Petulo. They get Landon Dickerson back. And so it's an interesting moment for the Packers defense because the Eagles offense overall just feels like a different sort of challenge now than they would have felt like a month ago. Yeah, like this to me. So for the first six weeks of the season, it felt a little bit like Petula was just taking what the offense was and trying to see how he could make it his own.

18:38But that's a hard thing to do. It's not your offense. I think with with them getting into more of the under center stuff, going into the jumbo stuff, this is more like him tapping into like, OK, I have found an answer here. How do I craft my offense around this? They were 42 percent under center in the last game that they played in the week before that they were at just over 40 They were the two highest under center games that Jalen Hurts has ever played. Like they are truly tapping into something that they have never, ever done before. And part of that I thought was interesting. They could get under center and they were throwing over the middle, which to me was, that's always been the thing with Jalen Hurts is he won't throw the middle, but they're getting into something.

19:09Because you're clearing it out by using under center play action. Exactly. Like you kind of force him to be like, hey man, there's two routes on this play. Like throw the dig to Devonta Smith and he's been doing it and actually throwing it accurately. And then the run game has just been a little bit more varied. You can get to some different pulls. You can run duo, I think, more effectively from under center. So it's been cool to see them finally tap into this after four or five years of calling for it. Getting Fred Johnson in there and just kind of eliminating those second and third tight ends because those are negative blockers.

19:36That has been a big thing for me. And then again, what it does to the defensive personnel that you're playing against and your ability to throw the ball against those looks. And also just Landon Dickerson being back and the physicality that brings is huge. I think that matters in particular against this Packers defense because I like the Packers pass defense. I still do. I think it's well-constructed. I think their secondary is solid. I think they're much better with Karen, Karen Valentine in there than Nate Hobbs. Karen Valentine gave up like one catch last week. And it was because Ted McMillan snatched the ball out of his hands.

20:02Like the coverage was excellent. I will say though, the Packers run defense is gettable because those guys on the interior, there just isn't, there aren't those like space eating players. Like Colby Wooden, who is coming to a bigger role this year because of Kenny Clark isn't there. He is a good run defender. Other than that, like you can push Devante Wyatt around a little bit, Carl Brooks, Nazir Stackhouse. And so that interior and just the offensive line overall for the Eagles, I do think is a little bit of a mismatch for the current iteration of the Packers front. Which this all ties into my hot take, which I've been debating all week whether this is I'm leaning too hard on narrative because this reminds me of last year.

20:41The Eagles looked bad. They were banged up against the Bucks. They lose. They go into the bye. And from there, they barely lose again. Like they only lose the game where Jalen Hurts exited against Washington early. but I kind of feel that same way going into this game and this is a weird time to trot this take out because this is a Green Bay team that could absolutely beat them but they're healthier they've made some tweaks on the offense like they look like they're running the ball better Dickerson and Cam Juergens get a bye week to be healthier we forgot to mention I don't know if he's going to play in this game but Nolan Smith will be back soon they opened his practice window I think the Eagles are about to look like the best team in the NFL again in short order.

21:22If not on Monday night, then very soon. I don't hate that at all. And part of that is because over the last couple of weeks and people have given me shit a lot over the last couple of years and my viewpoint and like perspective on Jalen Hurts. I think he's playing really well. Like getting him to do this stuff has really helped him. I think that he's playing really well and like what he's done against the Blitz. Like I think there are layers to his game that are more impressive than what he was doing for the majority of last regular season. And so when you combine that, all the talent this team has on both sides of the ball and them shoring up some of those issues on defense, I think that we absolutely could see that sort of gear realized over the next few weeks.

21:58Let's get to our next one here, the Rams at the Niners. Rams are four and a half point favorites here on the road. David, why is this our second game of the week? Well, if the, I mean, if the Eagles and Packers are like the prohibitive NFC favorites heading into the season, the Rams are the best team in the NFC right now based on like total body of work. I'm the NFL. I might be there. I'm ready to say some irresponsible things about the current state of the Rams. Be that as it may, division game against a six and three Niners team, which all arrows point to the Rams in this game. But that's not the first time we've said that about this very matchup, because one of my favorite games of the year so far was the Niners upsetting this Rams team on Thursday night football.

22:48So, I mean, McVay and Shanahan, it sells itself. The Rams look like a Super Bowl team. The Niners are doing their damnedest to patch this thing together. I mean, it's like the flex screen spray, you know, where you spray the bottom of the boat and float it? Or like a screen door can float because of it. That's what the 49ers are. This is a man from Louisiana giving us some very deep Louisiana analogies here. Yeah, they plugged up some holes in the boat with some gumballs. Are you not a big boater growing up in the Central Valley? Did I do a lot of boating in your day? I didn't do, there's not as much water immediately close to me, no.

23:25You guys didn't have a P-Rogue growing up? No. Let's talk about just the current state of the Rams and just why I think Derek and I are both ready to say some pretty outlandish things about them. I think they're playing very well on both sides of the ball, but I've reached this point yet again where I think the Rams are just the coolest team in the NFL. and they have been that for a while. When you appreciate just the ideas surrounding NFL football, I think that they have been a compelling laboratory for that going back into like the day that Sean McVay got there. And this is happening for them on both sides of the ball right now.

24:01And we'll talk about each of them as it relates to this matchup. But on defense, the Rams are playing like a staggering amount of dime defense right now. Like as much as any team in the NFL, more than any other team in the NFL, and situationally at a level that you just do not normally see. So over the past four weeks, they're using more dime than anything else. It is their most prominent personnel grouping, 41 % of plays overall. No other team in the league is above 22%. They're playing at 63 % of the time on third down. They're playing at 47 % of the time on second down. So it's essentially, this is just a down and distance thing.

24:39If you get to second and seven or more against the Rams, They're putting six DBs on the field. They can do that in part because they have the second best first down rush defense accessory in the NFL because of how their front is playing. And so this combination of we're really good at defending the run and base because we have a great front, we utilize them well, and now we're doing this very extreme thing in passing downs has made them one of the best defenses in the NFL structurally. And what's so cool about this is that the offense has now taken on the mirror image of that because for years and years and years, the Rams, we know this, they were an 11 personnel team.

25:16It was 95 % of snaps. They were up at the top of the league. If not, they're in the top three, if not the top of the league every single year. Well, this year they have started to do, they've started to be a lot more versatile with the personnel that they're using. They're using 26 and a half percent, 13 personnel over the past month. And it's just so interesting to watch them stumble into that. Because you asked this today, do we think that was a solution for not having Puka against the Jags? Maybe. Like, I think that might be the answer, but I think there was like a light bulb moment potentially in watching how that Jags game played out.

25:52Coming into the Jags game for six weeks of the season, the Rams have gotten 12.5 % base defense according to NextGenStats. It's been 47.5 % over the last two games because of how much 13 personnel they're using. And so watching the offense and defense kind of be mirror images of each other as they like tinker and figure out what works and what doesn't is a very Rams thing that is currently going on right now. It's so funny. And I think a lot of people are up on the 13 personnel thing after the last couple of weeks, just this staggering amount that they've done it. Like they did it half the time against the Saints, like half of their snaps were that personnel group.

26:27but they didn't run a snap of 13 until week six, and they, like, tinkered with it against the Ravens, and then they cleared it. And then, yeah, I think the Puka injury played a part in it, but they just went whole hog with it ever since, and it's been really, really fun to watch. I think it's also insane that, like, Dave, you always say you love to see a plan come together. I do. The whole thing with Puna Ford was that we could win on first down, and then we could do all this crazy shit on what we believe to be passing downs for our second and sevens, third downs and stuff. And it's fully realized they're the best passing defense in the league outside of Houston right now.

27:04Like by the numbers, like by EPA and stuff, they're the best passing defense in the league outside of Houston. That's pretty wild considering what they have looked like at times. And like we've talked about having... And like they don't have corners anyone talks about. That's what I'm saying. Like undersized corners, like guys that you can get the better of. Like to hear that it's that good after some of the performances we've seen, that's pretty eye-opening. Watching Puna forward and going back to that run defense success right on early downs, what's so cool about the Rams front is that it's a really complimentary collection of skill sets.

27:33And so you have guys who are like true penetrators. And so they'll use some of those guys, including the edge players. Like if you watch them in base defense and early downs, they'll spike one of the edge players inside with like Nate Lamb and walk down in the line of scrimmage. And so you're creating penetration in one area of your run defense. And then you have guys like Puna, like Tyler Davis, who can eat some space. And so you're affecting the offenses and the running games you're playing against from multiple different directions in multiple different ways. And that's what's so fun about this front is that there it's a I think so many teams look at assembling a group of pass rushers and they think, let's get the best guys.

28:09Let's get like four of the best possible guys that we can get. Not thinking about how they will play with each other. And I think the Rams front plays off of each other and with each other, accentuating their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses, as well as any front in the entire NFL. You see it all the time. It's incredibly cool. Like you have a bunch of edge players who, yeah, they'll cave, they'll get into the backfield, they'll spike and get penetration. You have all these defensive linemen who can clog stuff up. Yeah, when Brayden Fisk is on the field, he doesn't clog stuff up, but he can also get into the backfield.

28:39So you get some negatives there. And then to me, it's like if you have defensive linemen who can clog lanes the way that they're playing. You have defensive ends who can like dent like tight ends and tackles back a yard or two, get a little bit of penetration. It's pretty clear where the ball is going to get spilled. And then you have linebackers who Lamin's got his issues, Spates has his issues, all that. But they tackle pretty well and the DBs tackle really well. So if we all know where the ball is spilling every play and we tackle really well, that's how you get into a lot of second and eights.

29:07Can we talk about what great timing it is for this particular matchup? Because the 49ers are actually a threat to run the football again. And they haven't been for so much of this season. I think we I mean, we talked about how just hopeless they looked running the football early on in this season. Since George Kittle came back and it's not all because of him for sure. But since George Kittle came back in those three games, their top 10 and rushing success rate. They've had 16 explosive runs in the last three weeks. and that's they didn't do any of it against San Francisco or against Houston excuse me which is not surprising considering that defense but to be able to pop explosive runs with that level of consistency this should be a challenge which is which it would not have been a month and a half ago and I can't wait to see how they respond to that I think that's a huge part of it I also think if when they're in those base looks on early downs when you're in heavy personnel for San Francisco I think throwing the ball against those looks and not getting into those second and eights That to me is a big part of this.

30:08Like, how can you use the short and intermediate passing game the same way you did the first time around to kind of control this game and not let them dictate the terms of when we're in this, when they're in this personnel grouping, we want you to do this because that's what they want you to do. They want you to run the ball on those early downs when they're in base defense so they can get into these weird looks. On third down, there are no linebackers on the field for the Rams right now at times. They literally have five defensive linemen, like with their linebackers or the outside linebackers, and then six DBs.

30:39They want to be in these funky ass looks. And so trying to prevent them from ever getting into those by using that underneath passing game to control the game a little bit. I think that worked the first time around. I'm curious if that's how they try to do things the second time around. And again, I will be curious, too, because I think Mac Jones's play has like fallen off a little bit from the first handful of weeks. And I think certainly since the last time these two teams played. We thought he played well last week, though. The Giants defense is bad. Yeah, the Giants defense, I was like, yeah, I don't really.

31:06Yeah. But, like, I think there was a stretch in between there where he was a little bit more up and down. I will say, if you're going to be a team that is in a bunch of this base defense, the best way you want to attack them is, of course, okay, well, they're in base, let's attack the linebackers and the safeties. The guys you probably want to do that with are your running back and your tight end. They might have the two best in the league when those guys are healthy and playing. We saw it happen. And we saw it happen earlier this season. I mean, the Rams, listen, if the Rams don't fumble on the goal line, they'd probably win that game.

31:29But the Niners had a 60 % drop back success rate in that game without any of their players. It was the Kendrick Bourne CMC game. And that was actually the last thing I wanted to bring up. Mack Jones, this is a Rams team that when they bring pressure, it's all zone stuff. They don't really play a whole lot of like man to man, five man pressure stuff. Mack Jones against zone blitzes this year has a 60 % success rate and he is fifth in EPA per drop back. The only person better in success rate has been Lamar Jackson. And so like he, when you give him the man pressures and you just run with people, him making those throws is a little bit up and down.

32:00But if you're telling him, hey, I got to replace the ball with a blitzer, he's actually pretty damn good at it. And so that does present an issue for the Rams. I don't think I would blitz, but I think that I would send a lot of stunts their way. Because if you think about back that last game, they were struggling to defend the run as well. And when they started spiking Jared Versin's side a little bit more, when they started moving him around a little bit more as a spinner, that's when they really started cooking a little bit on defense. And so I would do everything I could to try to pick on as many matchups as I can and not just, these are our four we're going to rush for.

32:28You can rush four. Just do it in ways that maybe are a little bit harder to pin down. Before we finish this, I do have to bring this wrinkle up. It's too good to ignore because the LA Rams are having a kicking competition heading into this game. Josh Cardy has been having a regrettable season. He's missed a kick in half of their games. So they're having a competition midweek with Harrison Mevis, who went to Missouri, Robert. The thicker kicker. there is the potential if you're we talking he's six foot 242 okay jesus so like you know like a landon roberts i have been a 5 11 240 pound man in my life that is a thicker kicker we don't know for sure who's gonna win the job mcveigh literally said they're having a competition but if you're watching this game late window on sunday don't be surprised if you just do a double take the first time the Rams kicked the ball.

33:23You're just like, holy shit, who is that guy? It's Harrison Mevis, Mizzou legend, the thicker kicker. I couldn't let us get through this without talking about that. I can understand if you're the Rams and you have Super Bowl aspirations, we need to fix this kicking situation. I actually do think that there have been side benefits of their kicking game being bad. Sean McVay having to be more aggressive in plus territory now because he doesn't trust his character or his kicker has incepted him into making the correct decisions more often than not. So as I can completely get that it's been maddening for them watching this happen, but I actually do think it might be beneficial for them in the long run.

34:02Like the Fight Club quote, it's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything. He's going to go on fourth down, Sean. It's third and five in plus territory last week, and he's running the ball knowing that they will go for it on fourth down. Like, this is what we've always wanted. We should give every great play calling head coach that's a terrible situational decision maker, we should make their kickers terrible. Like we should sabotage their kicking games in order to get them to this place. Because it happened with Shanahan too. It's only with the Jake Moody experience that Kyle is now in a spot where he's going for it in the right moments.

34:33So I think there's something here. We're going to take our first quick break and then come back with a little take tribunal.

34:43typically we do these a little bit later in the show but this is related to a bit of a news item and so that's why I wanted to move it up a little bit here's the take that I have for you guys I think as we got four or five weeks into this season it felt like this version of the Cardinals was kind of on life support they were unlucky they were losing a lot of close games they weren't nearly as bad as their record indicated. But I feel like this group, in year three, after spending some money, there was an urgency to have some results this year, and those results weren't really happening. Kyler Murray gets hurt.

35:19They put Jogoby Percet in. They find a little bit of life on offense. And now, officially, it seems like Kyler Murray has been benched. He's on IR now in a very mysterious way. He was available last week, but he didn't play. This is a not-so-soft benching for Kyler Murray that's happening in Arizona. And my take that I wanted to trot out there and see if you guys agree with this, I truly think this could alter the course of like the Gannon-Petzin-Ausenfort regime in Arizona. Because for the first time, I think we're realizing what they want their offense to be. It's unlocked Marvin Harrison Jr.

35:52Trey McBride is scoring touchdowns at an alarming rate. And you combine that with the defense, I think, getting healthy and potentially turning a corner as we get into the back half of the season. And I think that a lot of the promise and a lot of the potential we saw for the Cardinals coming into the season, there is a chance we realize it in the back half. But that only is happening because Jacoby Persett has stumbled into the starting job. I like your take. I hate the timing of your take because, look, this is not the first. There's a chance they get blasted on Sunday. I understand. This is not the first time that.

36:28And I know the Cardinals have been in all of these games. They've lost like four. They lost like five in a row at the at the buzzer. But this is not the first time a quarterback has looked amazing against the Dallas Cowboys. Like Russell Wilson had the game of his life against the Dallas Cowboys. We were talking about like Bo Nix led the league in every metric when they played the Cowboys through like four touchdowns against them. I would be leaning into this a lot more if they weren't going up to Seattle on Sunday. And it could just have the potential to get really nasty. And like if if Jacoby Brissett has, you know, just a donut game and the Cardinals get blasted by Seattle, maybe that kind of opens the door where it's like, all right, well, if we don't if neither of our quarterbacks is playing that well, let's at least go back to the expensive one that we've committed resources to.

37:15I do think that's still on the table. I think the spirit of your take is good, though. Like the Cardinals have been a more enjoyable team to watch in the three, four weeks since Kyler went down. That's just objective fact. I think it's interesting because the difference between the two speaks to kind of what you were saying, Robert, like the vision for what they wanted the offense and the team to be when they obviously these Gannon and all them, they didn't draft Kyler Murray. So they came in and they were always a card you could pull. Exactly. Always. It's always a card you could play. And that's why they never catered the offense to Kyler Murray.

37:49They said, we're going to put in the offense that we like philosophically want to run. It's going to be a lot more under center. It's going to be a lot of pulling stuff. It's going to be a lot of we're trying to take play action shots over the middle and stuff. That's never been Kyler Murray's game like none of it has. And there have been stretches over this period where it's looked decent and they've had some some wins. But overall, that just never quite felt like that was the way that's happened to Kyler Murray. And now I think they've gotten to the point where like that is what Brissette does.

38:13Brissette stands at eight yards and he's going to throw the shit out of the football. And like that's what the offense is built to do. And so they're like them having it look kind of decent and better than Kyler Murray is like, hey this is proof of concept that what we want to do makes sense Kyler Murray just isn't a fit for it let's get him out of here and I think if you were Manny Austin for especially and you look at some of the moves over the last couple years that some of them we didn't know yet like the defensive moves but some of the ones that didn't look great yet like the Marvin Harrison Jr.

38:42thing it's so easy to be like see see all this stuff that we were doing it actually was the right thing and this guy this guy we didn't pick this guy we didn't extend this was actually the problem and And so I just think that the way that things are currently trending, they're eighth in weighted defensive DVOA. Like this is a team that I think has a lot of oomph to it with the right level of quarterback play and the right sort of system. We can absolutely argue that they were wrong and not trying to build the offense around the quarterback. And that's a misstep in coaching, but that's come and gone.

39:15That no longer matters. And so I just think it is so much easier, even if they finish the season with the same exact record they would have with Kyler Murray. If they're like an 8-9 team, but this is like the state of affairs that leads to that 8-9, I think it is so much easier for Monty and Jonathan Gannon to sit there across from Michael Bidwell and be like, of course we deserve another shot. Like, think about what we looked like when we got Jacoby in there. What can we do with a different quarterback? 7-10 looking the way that they've looked since Jacoby took over just feels so much different than what they were trending toward.

39:52And yeah, like it matters that the defense is healthier. We didn't do a Monday recap, but Walter Nolan looking like that in his first NFL game halfway through the season is f***ing insane. Like that is a really hard position to transition to. Will Johnson looks good. Like there are a lot of the bets that they made this offseason, in particular on defense. I think you see what Josh Sweat is doing. Like they are making good on a lot of that stuff. I know like raw, raw numbers don't always tell the whole story, but the stat going around on Monday was Jacoby's thrown for two 60 and multiple touchdowns more times in this extended look than Kyler had in 33 games as the Cardinals quarterback.

40:35I believe that. That, I mean, that is, that is very telling. That just gives you a great idea of what they look like with each guy in there. Because again, I think this goes back to like how you're building the offense. Some quarterbacks are better as low volume. I'm going to make really hard throws kind of quarterbacks. Like Jordan Love is actually kind of like this, but like Jacoby Brissett is certainly like this. Like some guy, I think Sam Darnold in a lot of ways is like this. Some other guys are better as high volume. I'm going to kind of got to lean into the volatility of it all. Like I think Jane Daniels is a little bit more like this.

41:07Kyler Murray is like this guys where it's like, give them 35 dropbacks. You're going to get five insane plates. That's just not how they built this thing to operate. I don't know how much I believe that this is the right thing, like allowing them to pick a quarterback in what is kind of a make-or-break season heading into next year, right? If they do come back, who's that quarterback going to be? How aggressive should you be in acquiring that quarterback? There's still a lot of lingering questions. I just think it is undeniable that it feels like this group overall is heading in a slightly different direction after what has happened over the last few weeks than it felt like with Kyler.

41:44It felt like with Kyler we're getting to the end of the road. This seems like we've kind of found a fork in the road. Does that make the Cardinals maybe the most intriguing team heading into the 2026 offseason between not knowing what they do at quarterback? And, I mean, let's just say what we're saying here. Like, if this is all the case, then Kyler Murray will be playing quarterback somewhere else next year, if I had to guess. And what does that look like? What other quarterbacks are available is the question. Like there aren't a lot of guys who it's like, oh, I know this guy will be on the move this offseason.

42:16If you feel like betting on Anthony Richardson, that's like the closest I can come. That's all I got. That is a question for another time. And then the Kyler destinations are a question for another time. I think that there's, we will dig into that at some point in the back half of this season. I'm sure we'll do a quarterback carousel show at some point. I think we don't have time to dig into it now. There are some spots where I think it's worth exploring what Kyler would look like. The question for me, and one of the reasons I want to kind of put a pin in it, I don't really understand the financial ramifications of dealing him.

42:45He has a$22 million base salary next year. He has a$17 million roster bonus next year. The roster bonus shit, it's like with Rodgers, where it was like there were so many different levers that teams trading for him had to pull to understand exactly what it would cost. And so there are teams that theoretically make sense, like Miami, for example. But if Miami's going to be paying$50 million to Tua, can they afford a certain amount of Kyler Murray? And so I want to get a little bit more clarity and understanding of how much you'd have to pay Kyler Murray against the cap next year before I start figuring out where he's going to land.

43:15I'm assuming Jason Fitzgerald or somebody will do the work on that for me, and then we'll be able to have that conversation. All right, let's get to one thing from a few different games on the week 10 slate. Let's start with a game that easily could have been one of the games of the week. We just, we didn't do it because we had two other good ones. The Patriots and the Bucs, the seven and two Patriots and the six and two Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Derek, what is the one thing you have on your mind as it relates to this game? I've kind of got two things, but this is a, the Patriots need to prove it to us game.

43:47Like, it's a very good spot for them to do that. Like, the only thing we keep saying, okay, Patriots, it's cool that they're 7-2. They've won all these games. They look nice. The schedule sucks. Like, they're not playing a lot of good teams. They did beat the Bills. They did beat the Bills. It's worth saying that. The defensive schedule isn't that bad. That is, like, the one caveat to this. The defensive schedule is, like, middle of the pack. And they brought this up when we were talking earlier this week. The schedule overall is terrible. As in the defenses they're playing. The defenses they're playing against are not that bad.

44:16They played against the Browns. They played against the Browns. Falcons are probably up there. The Falcons are like a top 10-ish defense. The Steelers, when they played against them, were not a bad defense. I hear what you're saying. That's a good point, actually. I mean, I think that matters. And that is why we have a high degree of confidence in Drake May being the man, right? Yes. But, like, I still think it's worth referencing that. Like Dylan Gabriel is not beating you if you can score 14 points. The offenses they played against have been horrendous. That matters though. The schedule overall is bad.

44:42It absolutely matters. But when it comes to like holding up a mirror to the offensive performance specifically, I do think it's more legitimate than the records of the other teams would lead you to believe. That's kind of what I'm saying. Like I said, I think who they've played defensively gives me a high degree of confidence that Drake May is not a mirage. Like he's awesome. Right. He rules. but when you're playing teams like the you know the the saints and the titans and the browns like i said these are teams where if you can get to 16 points you're gonna win and that is not a true representation of like beating a good nfl team well that's why i think the biggest question to me here and you may have been going here i'm most curious about what the patriots defense does in this game because i think i have a decent understanding of what the patriots offense is The Bucs are probably the best defense that they've played against this year.

45:34The Browns probably are number one if you look at the pure numbers. But I think the Bucs have been excellent this season defensively. I think that Atlanta is going to do a lot of funky blitz stuff the same way the Bucs are. Atlanta got after them a little bit last week. It was more volatile than it had been in weeks back. And I think you can make an argument that this version of the Bucs increases that volatility. But I still think the most intriguing part of this in terms of what new things can we learn about the Patriots actually exist on the other side of the ball. I agree. Like this Patriots defense, I think the corners are playing really, really well.

46:05You would. Yeah, Christian Gonzalez is good. I love me a Carlton Davis. Marcus Jones, I actually was a little bit questionable about coming into the year, but I think he's played pretty well. This is shocking. Marcus Jones is a little person. He's a tiny guy. And he had some bad reps against Drake London. But other than getting dunked on by like, I don't know, one of the best receivers in the league. Thanks for standing up for short, Kings. The fact that you're even like getting to this place with like a 5 '8 corner. He might be an all-pro player. We wouldn't know. I like one every now and then.

46:33Like when Duke Shelley was kind of playing pretty well. Duke Shelley, Jesus. Because he was just a little bit of an ass kicker. Every now and then I really like one. Scott, our social media guy over there in the office is a Bears fan. The very mention of Duke Shelley has him like laughing his ass off in there. But the corners, you know, they've got the two big corners are playing really well too. So I think the corners are playing well. and then the front is good. Yeah, it's good. They're just good players. Milton Williams is everything they paid for. Christian Barmore looks super healthy. Again, they both have 30 pressures apiece.

47:04The only two defensive tackles in the league with more than them are DeForest Buckner and Zach Allen. Those two guys have obviously been incredible as well. And then off the end, that I could have, you could have bet on, right? Like Christian Barmore, if he's healthy, of course he's good. Milton Williams, you paid for him. Harold Landry. It's nice that Christian Barmore is actually playing well though. Yeah, that's just a career-threatening type thing. The fact that he's playing well is awesome. Say the other name you were going to say. Harold Landry and Kalavan Chason playing very well. This is your biggest win of the preseason expectations.

47:31Kalavon Chason is a meaningful piece of the Patriots defense. Because we were talking about that early in the season. Just like I said. And I was like, oh yeah, the interior will be good. And I'm looking at the edges and I'm like, Kalavon Chason, like those five sacks last year, like come on, that was fake as it gets. And then you were like, I don't know. He's kind of good. And they're like, this year I'm like, he's pretty good. Yeah, like he's having a good year. I will say, I think the Bucs offense is maybe a little bit more gettable and vulnerable than we might want to believe based on how fun the Baker thing was over the first month of the season.

48:02If you look at some of the numbers, they're 20th in offensive DVOA. I'm not ready to have that conversation just yet because of how banged up they've been. That is a conversation I will be willing to start having on Sunday, depending on how this game goes. I love that aspect of it too, because purely from a narrative standpoint, but that is so much of the MVP race is narrative, right? The September darling, Baker Mayfield, and Drake May is the darling now. Deservedly so, but... I picked him to be the MVP on a podcast this week. It has switched from Baker to Drake when you're just talking about conversations about that award.

48:38So to have them playing against each other, maybe this is an opportunity for Baker to reinsert himself into those conversations. Because, I mean, they got smacked by the Lions. The Saints game was just the ultimate weird nothing burger game. And then they're on a bye week. So we haven't needed to care about the Bucs in several weeks. And it's definitely an opportunity for the Pats to prove themselves, but it is a huge litmus test for where the Bucs are at this point, too. I will say this about the Patriots before we move on. I really respect the fact that the only trades the Patriots made at the deadline were dealing guys away.

49:13They were not acquiring players. I think both the Patriots and the Niners, it would be very easy to be in a place where you're like, oh, we're good. Holy shit, we're good. Like we got to do something, right? They, neither of these front offices did that. And that is the correct mindset based on what type of team you really are and what the next year should actually look like for you. And so good on Elliot Wolfe and John Lynch for actually understanding what was and was not worth investing in at this trade deadline based on what these teams are. They're fun stories. Mike Frable and Kyle Shannon, coach of the year nominees.

49:46This is not the time to be pushing all of your chips into the middle of the table if you're either one of these. Let's get to the next one here. One thing from Ravens Vikings. This is the most interesting matchup I could imagine between a three and five and four and four team. I think that's right. I forgot the records for these teams. They're in the sheet. I always, this is always funny, just a little peek behind the curtain. I make Beller or ask Beller to put the records in because I will never remember them. Nope. If you asked me like which team has which record right now, I had absolutely no idea without looking at the standings.

50:17Hat tip to Katie on that. Thank you very much, Katie. So it was Katie putting that in there. I think the way we approach, I love, I love that this is not interesting for the podcast, but like the way we approach things is just, it's funny, different people's processes. Cause like for every game I know we're going to talk about, I go find the records and figure out what the spread is and like all that type of shit, just so I can consult it. But just, just vibes over here on the other side of the table. It really is. It really is. So I learned that the Ravens, I knew the Ravens had a bad record.

50:46I know that the fact that this is a three and five team and a four and four team that what is most interesting to me about this matchup specifically is for the first time after last week on several different levels we feel like we're getting the versions of these teams we thought we would get on the Ravens side of it we'll see how real it is considering they played the Dolphins but we get Lamar back for the first time the defense is now healthy again with guys in the right spots we've talked so much I've talked so much this week about Kyle Hamilton and kind of how he has unlocked that defense.

51:14Now we bring Draymond Jones into the equation and it feels like, okay, now the Ravens defense is personnel wise at a level we expected them to be coming into the year. They have no players on the injury report, right? These are the Ravens we thought they would be. Let's see if they can actually do it against a team that's not Miami. The Vikings last week is the first time that it felt like, okay, this is the version of the Vikings. I thought we might get coming into the year and injuries played a part in that you get Van Ginkle back. Cashman's now healthy. You get the offensive lineman back except for Ryan Kelly.

51:44And so for the, it really does feel like both of these teams were getting at the exact same time. We're getting the versions of them. We thought we were going to get, and I am excited to watch that on Sunday and specifically the defenses. Right. And I think it cuts both ways. Like for the Ravens, it's like, okay, first of all, they did the thing of moving Hamilton and fixing the defense again. That feels very Ravens. Roquan Smith looks awesome. Since he's come back from injury, he looks like Roquan Smith where he's killing plays on the perimeter. He's really good in coverage, taking out screens.

52:14And they just traded for Draymond Jones, who like that body type is very Baltimore Ravens. Like they just, it's starting to feel like a Baltimore Ravens defense and they're playing better. And then the Vikings, what I started to notice last week, they have a little bit toned down some of the pressure, some of the heat, at least some of the like the crazy, crazy blitzes. They brought at least six pass rushers, six times against Detroit last week and in week seven against the Philadelphia Eagles. They hadn't done that more than four times in any game before that this season. And their bye was in week six.

52:43So I think after the bye, they were like, hey man, we got to start going back to some of the stuff that was working for us before because they had not been a good toned down type of defense this year. The most fun part of that to me is the shared Lamar-Brian Flores history and how this becomes the next chapter in that. Because we all remember that Thursday night game. When you brought it up earlier, I just was like, oh my God. Yeah, it is. It's like that type of game. Like you remember where you were watching it. It just felt like such an important point in like the overall trajectory of the Lamar Ravens, where it's like we have found a crucial weakness in how you operate and we're just going to pick away at it for an entire game.

53:21They couldn't function with all the cover zero that Flores was bringing at them in this game. And then over the course of those next couple of seasons, Monken comes in, they become a team that's very good at handling the blitz. Lamar's numbers this year are really good against the blitz again i will say going back and re-watching all of his blitz drop action the last couple games they're not beating the blitz by getting rid of the ball quickly they're beating the blitz by picking things up and him finding little pockets of space to kind of extend and create and find guys a little bit later with fewer guys in coverage does that work against a team that's going to be bringing the level of heat that the vikings might be bringing in this game and so i just think that flores is different now lamar is different now what does this installment of their shared history look like is a very fun wrinkle to this thing.

54:06We had a few weeks there where we we talked about it on the recap shows where the noon window was like sleepy and unscentillating. You got Ravens Vikings and Pat's Bucks and Bears Giants. 12. Yes, that also that also will be on TV. But you got those you got those two games as your tent poles to like to anchor the noon window. Like that's very exciting. I feel like this is going to be a good witching hour. I 100 % agree with that. The reason I'm getting in front of this is just so when Bears Giants is on one of the TV solo on Sunday, you're ready. That'll never bother me. He says that now. No. Between, I mean, do we just want to move?

54:46We can't move to Sicko Street yet. We'll talk about Giants, Bears. Don't worry. One more here for one thing from week 10, the Steelers and the Chargers. David, one thing that you were looking for in Steelers, Chargers. the Pittsburgh Steelers are adapting the way they do things, which runs contrary to so much of what we've said about them on the show this year. So I went into this game. We talked on the recap show about how good the Steelers pass rush was and they got to Daniel Jones. They got the turnovers and they were good. But when you go back and look at it again and you dive deeper into everything, it's more like, oh, the back end of the Steelers defense played well enough to give the pass rush a chance.

55:28Because like the numbers, all the numbers on the on the pass rush, like pressure rate, quick pressure rate, all that stuff looks mostly the same as it has all year. The Steelers back in played well enough to give them a shot. And I think a big part of it is that Jalen Ramsey played safety pretty exclusively in that game. And Mike Tomlin was very quick this week to say that is the plan moving forward from, you know, from here on out or at least in the in the meantime, because they like their depth at corner better than they like their depth at safety. So they just traded for Kyle Duggar. He had a nice game in his first game as a Steeler against the Colts.

56:04So I'm curious to see what like what that looks like and how they continue to adapt. And are they going to be different than we've given them a lot of credit for? because if you can do more stuff to help that pass rush get home, this could look more like the type of Steeler defense we want to see. And unfortunately for the Chargers, we are back in a Joe Altless place with the Chargers up front. This is a hell of a week to have a chance to turn those guys loose, that's for sure. And like this is, I was looking this up as we were preparing for it, or I was actually looking this up for a different team, and I noticed the Chargers, and then you brought this up, and I was like, okay, this is good.

56:42on plays where teams do not blitz the offense. The Chargers have allowed a 43.4 % press rate. That feels impossible. It is the highest in the league and they're the only team above 40%. They are even against just four-man rushes. They get bludgeoned. And that's what the Steelers want to do. I will say, a lot of that I'm sure is stunts and twists. The Steelers don't do a lot of that. And so I'd be curious how much of that actually happens on the Steelers' side. I don't think I actually said that, but thank you for reminding me. They did not blitz the Colts. And they like they drop their blitz rate a lot from their from their normal numbers.

57:15So, yeah, but and they also use some simulated. So even when they when they they were bringing weird bodies, but they were still only bringing four in some of those moments like that. Brandon Echols, Alex Highsmith near interception. That is a play we do not often see from the Pittsburgh Steelers. And so that's another layer to the adaptation that you're talking about. Another fun week by week wrinkle is just the Colts were awful on play action against the Steelers. Like Daniel Jones was three of nine for 23 yards and a pick on 12 dropbacks. The chargers are the only team running play action as much as the Colts are this year.

57:47Like they're right up there at the top of the league. So what does that look like when you don't trust your offensive line or, or do the chargers try to pivot away from that? I guess, I guess we'll see, but I just, I hate it for Justin Herbert, man. Like just as we were getting excited about the chargers rounding back into form, they're back into the injured version of this thing. and Jamari Sawyer, Trey Pipkins, Austin Dekulis are probably in like, that's the mix to be your tackles moving forward. And yeah, I don't feel good about the pressure rates of any of these guys. I don't envy Justin Herbert.

58:22All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back with a little Sicko Street.

58:31All right, you mentioned it. Now, Sicko Street is bringing us to the Chicago Bears game this week. for a very specific reason. Here is why I am intrigued by this game, even if it may not seem overly exciting on the surface. I brought this up a few different times over the course of this offseason, and I think a lot of my doubt about the near and even midterm future of the Giants is rooted in the fact that I have seen this movie many, many, many times. Coming into the season... In your own life. In my own life. Many, many, many times. The Bears and the Giants, I think, share so many similarities as franchises.

59:06their legacy franchises. They're led by owners who I don't think are like actively detrimental to their success, but have just struggled to figure it out. Like when I look at like what Woody Johnson is and how much of an impediment Woody Johnson is to the Jets winning because of the meddling that he does, that is not what George McCaskey and John Mara are. I think they've just struggled to find the right people in some of these positions. And so when I watch what the Giants are doing right now, coming into the season with a potential lame duck coach coach GM on the hot seat, potentially, and you draft a quarterback in the first round.

59:40And now you're two and seven. The quarterback has shown just enough, right? If he was like an abject failure, this would be easier. He has not been, he's been exciting at the very least. And so now the Giants are in a position where they're going to have to decide by the end of the year. All right, we're four and 13 again, but the quarterback has been okay. And we have a play caller that has gotten enough out of the quarterback where maybe he can justify coming back. And if you fire him, now we are onto a new staff that did not pick the quarterback, which I've done over and over and over again in my life.

1:00:17Holy shit. Even I didn't think about this until you started talking, but Jackson Dart was a trade up to the same way that Justin Fields was trading into the first round to draft the quarterback to save your job. Guess which team the Bears traded with to get the Justin Fields pick? The New York Giants. That would be the New York Giants. I do remember that. And that was the Evan Neal-Kavon Thibodeau draft. God, that was really funny. I just love talking about old drafts. It's all so stupid. So I just, I'm fascinated by this. Like what, how the second half of the season plays out for the Giants, because if you're Brian Dable, your justification for keeping your job is we have this baby that only I can keep alive.

1:00:52This is my guy. Like if you believe, if you value this and you fire me, what's going to happen to him. And I don't think that's enough considering everything else that's going on, but that's going to be the argument. The Maris better not buy that. A lot of guys can win four games. You got to at least get to like eight wins before I start buying that line. I think that's probably right. Let me ask you this. And if you're not sold that Jackson Dart is the future of New York football, that's totally fine. But like, I think Jackson Dart's good enough that based on what we've seen so far, it makes the Giants job desirable or at least more desirable.

1:01:30I'm not there yet. You're not there like that. It's even like intriguing for a coaching candidate. Jackson Dart. Yes, I'm not there yet. I think I think the thing to me would be like, I don't know. Is he more intriguing than having a blank slate? I don't think that's a definitive. Yes. And I'm not saying there's nothing to him like he's a good athlete. I think he's accurate when the ball comes out. And I think he does a better job of getting the ball out at times than I initially thought he might. but there's still a lot missing with him. Yeah, I think there's still plenty of late plays where he looks pretty lost and he's a rookie quarterback but like there is such a level of volatility to his play.

1:02:06Like what we're watching right now, you know what it reminds me of a little bit? It's the conversation we had about Jaden Daniels last season, right? Where the scramble rate is unsustainable but Jaden Daniels was doing enough on time in other aspects of the game where even if there were some things living in the extreme it was like, all right, there's enough stuff I can still buy into here, even if there are elements of this that are going to fall back to earth a little bit. Jackson Dart has all of the extreme and not enough of the elements that are going to be like stabilizers over the course of this.

1:02:36It might work out, but the Jackson Dart experience right now, I don't know how you can look at it and be like, yes, that's going to be great. I'm not sold that he's good. I'm sold that, I mean, for starters, you just want an NFL head coaching job anyway. But like, I think an offensive coach could look at what Jackson Dart has done so far and be like, I can work with this. And I agree with you, like a blank slate is more intriguing. But if all jobs are not created equal, which they aren't, I think Jackson Dart has shown enough to where I'm like, I'm at least interested and not like, ooh, I don't want to touch this with a 10-foot pole.

1:03:12That looks gross. He is more intriguing than having to find a veteran or having like the eighth pick in the draft and being like, okay, maybe we have to find a quarterback. I would rather take the job where you have like the second overall pick. And you can, like that I think is kind of my framing. I think it's a fine piece of whatever job you're taking. Like I don't think anything he's done is like disqualifying. I think a lot of what he's done is very exciting. There's something to build on. I just don't really know what to make of it at this point. Like when you watch him play, it's like, all right, that's not there.

1:03:39Eyes go down. And there are like numbers that like beyond his first read, he's like been like pretty efficient. That's because he runs around for three and a half seconds and throws the ball to somebody. That's not because he's progressing second and third option in the offense when he could have there's it's actually so funny i was just watching the eagles game again because we were prepping for the eagles defense he gets into the into the boundary he gets like a cover two look he stares at the corner sitting down in the flat doesn't throw the corner out runs around for five seconds and then still completes a seven yard ball i'm like technically an efficient play but that's not how that was supposed to look yes i just don't know how sustainable that stuff is he is exciting it's undeniable the athleticism is really fun.

1:04:19I do think there's something there. His work against the Blitz is actually pretty impressive. That's actually where I think he's at his best. And so that's one other weird similarity to Jaden Danderson last year, by the way. Yes, actually. But I do think that stuff is like the best moments that he has, plus the athleticism. But as a coach, we've talked about this, coaches love Jackson Dart. Any coach is going to look at how that guy is wired, and they're going to want to coach Jackson Dart. Which, I guess really, let me reframe it, because even if we're not sold on what Jackson Dart is, I think, and maybe they're even lying because you got to lie to get the job sometimes.

1:04:53But like, I think a long list of coaches would talk to John Mara and be like, I would fricking love to coach this guy. Like, and here's my plan for how it would work. And we'll have Malik neighbors back and we can do this and that and the other. And here's why it'll look good. Like to go back to your point, nobody anywhere should be convinced that like only Brian Dable can make it work with this guy. Like that's insanity. A lot of people would be happy to try to make it work with Jackson Dart, I guess is my point. Yeah, I think that's right. And so it does feel like we're going to be at a place where, again, the Bears are, the Giants are going to live out the Bears movie, where they're going to fire the coach a year, the year they drafted the quarterback, and now it's going to be up to the next staff to get the most out of that quarterback.

1:05:33To bring it back to the game itself, like, I really, I never have a problem with the Bears game being on, especially since we're based in Chicago, but between just wanting to know if the Bears can keep it going, and if this is real and the potential thing. I mean, think about how frustrating this could be for the Bears. Like Jackson Dart could do some dumb shit to this Bears. I don't really want to think about that. Yeah. Yeah. We could be in for it might not be 47-42, but we could be in for some goofiness here that could really make for some good content. I just want to get ahead of this as early as possible.

1:06:07Okay. Nothing you do against the current state of the Chicago Bears defense can convince me of anything. So I think there are people that are in Bengals and Cowboys territory. There might be a performance in Jackson Dart on Sunday where people are throwing it back in my face and be like, see, no, no, no, no, no. I watched the Bears defense. I know the Bears defense. This is not anything of, there's no legitimacy to this. Move it like we just need to have the camera on us watching the end of the Bears game from here on out. I think that should be our new resolution as a show. I am starting common on guy in fantasy this week, and I'm really hoping it's like last week where I just say Monungay 20 times over the course of the day.

1:06:42So I'm very much looking forward to that. All right, let's get to what we want to know after the Week 10 slate is done. Dave, kick us off, buddy. We talked about it at the top of the show, but it is a huge week in the NFC West. In addition to Rams Niners being game of the week type stuff, the Cardinals are going to Seattle. They're six and a half point underdogs. I expect Seattle to win the game, but the NFC West is goofy as hell. I mean, all division games are goofy, but this division in general is a weird one to try to figure out. I don't think you could say it would be shocking if the Cardinals scare the crap out of out of the Seahawks.

1:07:20So what are we saying about the NFC West on Sunday night? If the Rams and Seahawks both win, they they kind of get a hold on the top of the division. And by the way, they play next week. So I don't have to think hard about what our game of the week will be for week 11 if it's Rams and Seahawks both getting a win. But Niners have already beaten L.A. So if they if they pull off this upset, then they've got the season sweep on L.A. and they move to seven and three despite all of that nonsense. And then obviously, if the Cardinals were to get a win, all of a sudden you're within shouting distance of 500.

1:07:56And it's very much like a don't forget about us sort of situation. So no matter what happens, the narrative surrounding the NFC West, I can't wait to see what we're saying. And then next week we get Ram Seahawks. And so it is going to be a very fun two week stretch here for all things NFC West. My what do I want to know? This team has been like a weird object of fascination to me all offseason. I don't know why. I think that there were elements of the Bryce Young part last year that got me there. But then when I was thinking about the offensive line coming into the season and then microwaving the defense with all this money, I really did think that the Panthers could be a competent, relevant team in the NFC this year.

1:08:35Maybe they wouldn't be a wildcard team, but we said this coming in. I think you did a great job, Derek, on the NFC South preview show. What does success look like for the Cardinals or for the Panthers? Two things. Are you on the in the hunt graphic at the end of the year and are you not picking in the top 10? We're there. They have made good on a lot of this. And when you go back and you watch that game against the Packers, even with backups on the offensive line, still, their run game looks good. They're pushing people around. McMillan has his flashes. On the defensive side of the ball, you see that there are like real pieces now.

1:09:07There are like NFL players lining that defense. Tershawn Warden had a nice game. Derrick Brown being back has been just a miracle for this team. Trevin Merrick is a good player. JC Horn went healthy. It's like a really good corner. And it was funny because when we did the NFC South preview and in spending time there during training camp, I was like, I don't like what this team is doing. Like, I like what the mindset is from a team building perspective. It all makes sense to me. Like, I believe in this in a lot of ways. And I think a lot of that has come to fruition. The quarterback part of it is still a major question.

1:09:39I think that's the most disappointing part of this is that he hasn't contributed to that feeling in the way that I hoped he might. But so much of this has actually come together in a fun way. And I think it makes sense to me. And so how far can we take that, right? Like, can you beat the shit out of the Saints team? Can you be in a place where you show us during the back half of the year, you are going to be a team that's bugging contenders like the Packers consistently because of the trajectory and the overall direction of where your franchise is. And so I kind of want to figure out what the answer to that is with the Panthers.

1:10:13Yeah, they're, I don't know if they're, yeah, I don't know if they're going to make the playoffs, but like week 17, week 18, at this pace, They're going to be like this scenario, this scenario, they get in like it. And that is a huge success for them. And so they are like quietly. I posted something like this on Blue Sky a few days ago. Like they have two offensive linemen out seemingly every week. And it doesn't matter. Everyone's ass. Like they're my favorite running game to watch right now. It's awesome. Can I actually throw that back to a stat I pulled up when I was talking about the Chargers?

1:10:38Because we know the Chargers are beat to shit, right? Chargers have played 254 unique lineups this year. the Chargers have only had their most common lineup on the field on 3 % of their snaps. So for reference, Indy leads the league at 23%. So the Chargers have just been moving people in and out of the lineup. They're second to Carolina. Carolina has had its preferred lineup on the field less often than the Chargers. And they move people every week. It's funny because they got Corbett back last week, but Cade Mays was hurt. And I kind of think Cade Mays is better than Austin Corbett is at center.

1:11:12The thing is we want to move people. Cade Mays was doing that. And so it is funny that like we've gotten to this point where Robert Hunt's been out for the whole year and they're still been able to do this. Damian Lewis looks awesome. He's an all pro, dude. I'm not even kidding. He is such an ass kicker. And Aquana looks really good. Pass protection last week. I'm just enjoying the experience. Not more than I thought I would, because I actually thought I would enjoy the experience. But it's still been pleasant. It's been like, oh, that's nice. I thought this might happen, but I'm glad that it is.

1:11:42We got called out this week for speaking and meme, so I'm just going to lean into the bit. But you've seen the John Daly Tiger Woods meme, right? Yes. Oh, yes. Like John Daly and Zubaz smoking. He's the Panthers at 5-4 to the Chiefs Tiger Woods at 5-4. That's exactly what this season has felt like. Derek, what do you want to know by the end of Week 10? Mine is a little bit more on the other end. It's a little bit more sad. Just is the Texans season over? And we've already kind of been trending that way. They're in a really tough position being 3-5 with obviously Colts kind of having the division and then the rest of the AFC wildcard race just being a bloodbath.

1:12:16Like it's going to be really hard for even some other really good teams to get in. And so CJ Stroud obviously had the concussion last week. He's not going to play this week. They're going to play Davis Mills. And so them already being three and five, having to play Davis Mills against a team that is in their range. And I think especially if they don't have CJ Stroud, I think the Jaguars are a much better team. I think this is just like a, if they lose this one, go to three and six. This does not feel to me like the Ravens where it's like, okay, they can dig themselves out of a hole. Both sides of the ball just aren't good enough.

1:12:44The defense is the offense, I'm not so sure. This is the type of team that has a chance to just make football games disgusting for the next two months. And I think this might be one of those. What's the over-under in this game? Didn't you tell us earlier? Oh, it's like... Isn't it like 38 or something like that? It's like 39. I looked this up the other day and I don't have it on me right now, but it is one of the... Oh, here, I can pull it up. It is, I think, within a point of Browns Jets. 37 and a half. 37 and a half! And I think Browns Jets is like 38 or 36. It's like one of those two. That's all you need to know.

1:13:13That's gross. Browns' Jess is also 37 and a half. So this game, the Jaguars and the Texans. That might be sicko street right there. In the same time window. We got two games with that over-under. And like, yeah, getting to that over-under for like two kind of different reasons. Just like a very, very weird game. It's a depressing note on which end this conversation. All right, that is all we've got for today. we will be recapping the Thursday night game tonight on our YouTube channel. So that will be available on the YouTube page for the athletic football show on Friday, if that's when you're listening to this.

1:13:47So I encourage you guys to go check that out. We will be back here on Sunday night live. If you don't join us for the Sunday night recap shows, I encourage you to start doing that. We have a lot of fun production elements this year. We've got graphics. We got a whole team of people working on this stuff. We have highlights that we're folding into our Sunday night recaps. And so it is worth it to join us for those shows if you do not already. So if you're looking for a place to spend Sunday evening from about 10 30 p.m. Central time until you go to bed, this is the spot for now. That's all we got.

1:14:20Appreciate you guys. Listen, we'll talk to you very soon.