Week 12 Preview: Colts-Chiefs is the Game of the Week, but not in the way we expected

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays the week 12 preview is here. This was a fun one. We got two games of the week started with Chiefs Colts, just a massive game for the Kansas City Chiefs, who if they lose this game, have like a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs per the athletics playoff simulator. Followed that up with the Rams Bucks, which has become a fun little mainstay matchup in the NFC over the last few years. Two teams kind of headed in different directions. The Rams establishing themselves as like the best team in the NFL. The Bucks scrambling a little bit. Losers of two straight.

0:35So a lot on the line in that one as the Panthers are nipping at the heels of the Bucs in the NFC South. We hit one thing from Steelers, Bears, Panthers, Niners, and Eagles, Cowboys. Eagles, Cowboys, just so much more compelling than it was a couple weeks ago. I jumped on that one because I can't believe how excited I am to watch that game. Spent some time on Sicko Street. Cam Ward is playing against the Seahawks defense this week. That might be ugly, but if you listen to Dave and Derek, it's not going to be ugly in the long term for Cam Ward. Also spending some time with Brown's Raiders on Sicko Street.

1:08I mean, you pick which angle you want to hit with this one. We got Shadur Sanders' first start. We got Miles Garrett seeing if he can break the sack record this week against the Raiders' offensive line. Miles Garrett and Max Crosby living out the exact same existence on either sideline in this one. A little take tribunal about J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and how Derek just wants to stop talking about them and whether he should be allowed to. And then we finish with what we want to know coming out of week 12 in the NFL calendar. Enjoyed this one. Hope you guys do as well. Let's get to it right now.

1:44The week 12 preview is here. A lot of fun stuff to dig into today. We're going to kick it off with two games of the week. These games of the week presented by BetMGM. First one, the Colts at the Chiefs. The Chiefs are three and a half point favorites in this one. Dave why is this one of our two games of the week One of the powers in the AFC Is going up against a team Hanging on to its playoff life And that's the Chiefs The Chiefs are not the power The Chiefs are the team that desperately needs to win To stay apace in the wild card race Which is if nothing else It's just fun to see the Chiefs in this situation Where they I mean if they lose If they were to lose this game it would be the latest in an NFL season they've been below 500 since 2012, which is when they went 2-14 and led to them hiring Andy Reid.

2:38Like, it's been a nice decade plus for the Kansas City Chiefs. That's a good point, because I think that so often we just tie the Patrick Mahomes era into, like, when the Chiefs started being a good team, when in reality they were a playoff team every single year with Alex Smith. Immediately when they hired Andy Reid and got Alex Smith, they were a playoff team. They were a team that was like, we want to aspire to more than this. And typically you kind of wave that off like, well, you're being irrational. And then they drafted Patrick Mahomes. And it was like, oh, you are a lot more than just making the playoffs every year.

3:08So it's strange to see them here. And then obviously, what a chance for the Indianapolis Colts coming off of their buy. It's been it hasn't been a bad two weeks, but they just haven't. They've dealt with the problems that you deal with in the NFL. and what better way to assert yourselves than to beat the biggest bully on the block? Let's bring it all fully all the way around. The first playoff game of the Andy Reid era. That's right. Was the Chiefs-Colts game where Jamal Charles, I believe Jamal Charles got hurt in that game, didn't he? He got a concussion and then it come out of the game and it was like early in the period when you had to leave the game because of the concussion.

3:43And so it was a very memorable playoff game. It was 45 to 44 was the final score of that game. That's so weird to think about. Patrick Mahomes is 0-2 against the Colts in the regular season too. Oh, yeah. He played that disgusting game against the Colts. Remember the Chiefs offense really struggled last time they played the Colts. It's irrelevant now, but there are more relevant Colts-Chiefs moments that I anticipated before having this conversation. I think we've brought this up before on the show. Yeah, I brought it up with the Packers and the Giants last week where every team has like a random team where it's just like, oh, we got to play these guys.

4:15And like outsiders probably don't think about it. But yeah, there's some angst here with the Chiefs and the Colts. Wait a minute. I'm sorry, guys. We can't bring up that playoff game without saying that it was 38 to 10. That's right. And the Colts came back and won. It was an incredible comeback. Yes. Andrew Luck is a Super Bowl. Yeah, there are a lot of layers to that one. Mahomes did beat the Colts in the playoffs the first time they won the Super Bowl, for whatever that's worth. So a little more historical context here. The Chiefs have never lost three games in a row since Patrick Mahomes became their quarterback.

4:44And when you actually think about it, like, obviously that makes sense. like good teams don't tend to lose three games in a row. But if you want to put like a fine point on how strange of a moment this feels like for the Kansas City Chiefs, I think that crystallizes it pretty well. Yeah, I mean, think about, yeah, just like you don't expect teams that have like those quarterbacks to lose three games in a row. It seems almost impossible. I know a lot of it this year is like, you're not getting blown out in these games. They're literally losing by like two points, three points, four points in all of these games.

5:13But at a certain point, they stack up to a point where like your playoff chances are pretty dire. I alluded to this on the table show that we did in the middle of the week. The Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era heading into this season were 56-21 in one-score games. 73%. They famously won 11 or 12 of them last year. They're 0-5 right now. They're 0-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, which for a while there it felt like they were incapable of doing that. But that has been the difference, in my opinion, for this team. The larger like storyline consideration with me for the Colts, I think kind of resides mostly on when they have the ball.

5:51So let's start on that side of this game. We did the table conversation yesterday and we eliminated the Colts from the table. They were a team that we didn't even really talk that much about as part of this discussion. We did that before I had rewatched the Colts Falcons game. And before I started doing the prep for this conversation on this show, I'm going to be honest with both of you guys. I'm a little bit uneasy about having left the Colts off the table. And the point of tension here between you and I is that you just do not believe in the quarterback. And I think I might believe enough in all of the other aspects of the offense, plus some of the things of the defense that we'll talk about in a second, that this team like does have a gear to it that might be dangerous down the stretch.

6:37The game they played the last two weeks, obviously they turned the ball over a shitload against the Steelers. And then the game they had last week against the Falcons two weeks ago, the final score, I mean, they have a couple turnovers in the red zone. They have two fourth down failures in opponent territory in the red zone. They move the ball consistently down to down again. And so I was just thinking about like kind of the larger scale stats associated with this Colts offense and what they felt like this year. And I was just looking some stuff up. This season, even including the last two weeks, the Colts have a first down.

7:09They have created a first down on 35.2 % of their place. There is a bigger gap between them and the Chiefs at two. The Chiefs are still number two, by the way. Then the Chiefs and the Ravens at number 11. The only two teams that have broken the 35 % barrier over an entire season since 2000 are the 2000 Rams, speaking of the greatest show on turf Rams, and the 2011 Saints. That's it. Like that is how efficient the Colts offense has been. And they were pretty efficient over the last two weeks. And so this idea that Daniel Jones is going to turn back into a pumpkin, this is all going to come off the rails.

7:47I kind of understand how we arrive at that point. But as I think more about it and I watch what this offense continues to look like down to down, I don't know, man. And I think they're still pretty good. I think they're going to continue to be efficient. They still run the ball incredibly well. I like the way that they are PO teams. They have enough good pass catchers. But like he's for the first two months of the season, his the bad plays that he had been committing for the first six, seven years of his career just weren't happening. His pressure to sack rate was incredibly low. Like he was incredibly good under pressure in a way that is not sustainable for anybody.

8:19That's not Josh Allen. This is a weird thing. And I'm curious how you think about this. When I watch him right now, and there are multiple throws like this against the Falcons, when there is pressure directly in his face and he does not have to move, he's been incredible this year. Like his ability to deliver throws as someone is in his lap, he continues to do it. He had multiple plays like that against the Falcons. If he have to move off his spot even a tiny bit, that's where it starts getting dicey. And I think the line between those two things and how drastic the difference is on either side of the line is kind of wild to watch right now.

8:53I think the late Vikings Kirk Cousins was a lot like this. Yes, that's a good comparison. Where if he was standing on his spot and he could, even Matthew Stafford right now is like this. We talked about Tannehill and how there's a Tannehill kind of essence to this. And I just think that that style of quarterbacking, even when it looks good, it looks really good. It also invites a certain amount of volatility. And I think when you're generally the quality of quarterback that Daniel Jones has been for six, seven years of his career, I'm just a little bit worried we're going to get more of the dips than we got for the first two months of the season.

9:23It probably won't look as bad as like the Steelers game. The Steelers game was probably an outlier on the other end. But something like the Falcons game where you get some more of those moments. He put the ball on the ground multiple times in that game. I mean, again, it was end of half. So the pick wasn't that bad. But like the way that he threw it was like pretty gross to me. Yeah, the decision to throw that ball based on like the coverage in that moment is indefensible. But to me, the ball security stuff and what happens later in downs is he's trying to create a little bit. I think those are the things that become most worrisome to me.

9:52I just don't know. We've talked about this yesterday. Where between early season Daniel Jones and last two weeks Daniel Jones, from a ball security and decision-making standpoint, I land. Because I think that the rest of the offense is so good, so well devised, that if he's even in the middle between those two points, I still think I have a lot of faith in this. I guess the question now becomes, what does it look like this week against the Chiefs? That's what I was going to say. I think it's a vastly different thing between winning multiple playoff games. And that was the conversation that we had in the middle of the week.

10:22And that's why I felt comfortable leaving off, leaving them off the table. But here in this game, it's very funny timing because I'm with you after we kind of dismissively just flipped the Colts off the table. I, I've been prepping for this. I went home, I was watching Colts games and I was like, yeah, I like, I like this matchup for the Colts a lot. to be honest with you on both sides of the ball. And like this Colts offense, I think is well suited to give the Chiefs problems between what they like to do with Daniel Jones. And oh, by the way, they're like the most devastating running game in the NFL.

11:00But you're less worried about that. The Chiefs first down run game is run defense is actually pretty good. There are four of them though. Yeah, I know, but you get four shots at it. But if you start to get Daniel Jones behind the sticks a little bit, But I think that's how you invite some of the volatility that like the Steelers defended the run well in that game. And I think that's how you started to invite some of that volatility in a guy like Daniel Jones. They have a 22 % conversion rate on third and seven plus this year. The Colts do. That is 20th in the NFL. They're not a good like pure drop back like that team.

11:30Like, even though the passing game is super efficient, it's a lot of play action. It's a lot of RPO. Some of their screen stuff is good. Like it's it's a lot of the other easy buttons that they've because of the run game have been able to get into it for a lot of the situations that they want. But like they are not to me a pure third and seven. Let's go win type of game. But you know who has the worst success rate in the league against play action this year? The Chiefs. Kansas City. Yeah. So I get it. There clearly are ways that you can take Daniel Jones out of this rhythm and make him look more like what we remember.

12:01I am curious if the Chiefs are equipped to be one of those teams this year. I just don't, my confidence right now in the back seven for the Chiefs and even the defense overall, I just don't feel very good about this group. And it's not some disaster. Like if you look at like the season long numbers, this is not even a below average defense. It's a slightly above average defense. But when I go back and I watch that game against the Broncos, and this has just been kind of a consistent theme for me this year. If you had to kind of pick out what is the defining quality of the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs defense, what do they do well?

12:34What would the answer be for you? They defend the run well on first down. That's about it. That is such a narrow scope. And it's, the biggest thing to me is, and we talked about this over the last couple years, the four-man pass rush still is not a very good group, right? Like, I think Karloftis actually had a nice week last week, and Karloftis is a solid player. He's having a good season. He's just like, in an ideal world, you want him to be your number two. And Chris Jones, and I think your number two edge rusher. Right, right, right. And then Chris Jones is obviously, he still has those moments where he's Chris Jones, but I don't think down to down he's quite the force that he has been other times in his career.

13:05And there have been a lot of stretches for the Chiefs defense where even if the four-man pass rush didn't scare you very much, their ability to manufacture pressure and consistently get after teams that way could kind of make up for it. And when you watch the Chiefs defense right now, they just don't have that sort of menacing feeling when they're blitzing. And that's the reason that I'm like, where does the defining quality of this thing? because it doesn't feel like a Steve Spagnuolo defense right now. And the numbers back up that I test. Since 2021, so the last five years, before this season, the Chiefs had not allowed better than a 42 % success rate in any single season when blitzing.

13:46Just for context, right now, that like 41.9 % would be the eighth best mark in the league. So they've had essentially like a top eight success rate when blitzing each of the last five years. This year, it's 49%. they have a lot of 49 % success rate when blitzing. They have the third worst pressure rate in the league when bringing five or more. The only teams that are worse are the Saints and the Raiders. It just doesn't feel like a Steve Spagnuolo defense right now. And that's why I'm kind of like with Dave, we're like this Colts offense is really good. And the Colts defense or the Chiefs defense doesn't scare me right now.

14:21I thought the Broncos game is a great illustration of this. The very first play against Denver, Chamari Conner sacked Bo Nix. they sent him off left tackle and it was like spags there he is there yeah it's back big game spags and then they did it i think they did it nine more times and did nothing with it like they they blitzed him three more times on the opening drive he was great against all of those he finished the day six of eight for 113 yards with an epa per drop back of 0.8 against the blitz so like from the first snap on after the first snap of the game it wasn't doing anything and i went and looked at this they are and this is courtesy of next gen stats they're generating unblocked pressures so and like isn't isn't that what you think of when you think of spags is like why is that linebacker just running free through the gap like who's whose man is that that's what they're so famous for and they're getting those unblocked pressures at a rate of just 6.2 percent and for context if that doesn't feel like it means anything to you the teams that have been going to the Super Bowl here the last two or three years have been generating those between nine and 10%.

15:26If you game that out over the course of a season, that's like upward of a dozen more of these unblocked sorts of pressures. And I'm looking at that and I'm thinking, okay, now go back to the part where they've lost five one score games. You think it's one play a game. You think an unblocked pressure game couldn't be like a big difference in this. And so it might, it might sound small, but I think those are the sorts of margins you're working with for a team like this. Let's get to the other side of the ball where I actually do think that the way that the Chiefs offense is currently playing and the way the Colts offense played last week specifically makes this kind of a scary matchup for the Chiefs as things are currently going.

16:03The Chiefs this year have been a bottom 10 team in success rate against man coverage and last week against the Falcons the Colts turned up the man coverage in a very real way. They played 45 percent man against the Falcons last week per next gen. That is their single highest mark in a game this season. They also had their second highest blitz rate in a game this season. And why I actually think that's notable isn't just that they were good at it for one game. When I watch the Colts defense right now, even without Traverius Ward, I think they look more comfortable playing man coverage than they do playing zone coverage.

16:36Like a lot of the cover two reps that they had early in that game against the Falcons, guys are getting lost. They're trying to do some funky stuff with like simulateds and drop eights. And I actually like this defense better when they're kind of just playing man and being aggressive. And that has bared out over the course of the season. Among teams with a hundred drop backs against man in man this year, only the Broncos and Lions have allowed a lower success rate than the Indianapolis Colts. And they also have a 10.4 % sack rate when playing man coverage, which when you get to double digits, that's pretty damn good.

17:05And when you watch the Chiefs right now, they are just not a team that has a lot of answers against man coverage. And so maybe it's just the glimpse I got the last time the Colts played. But I'm curious how that element of this matchup goes on Sunday. I do worry about them a little bit in terms of what is their capacity to beat man coverage because they don't have anyone who does it very well. You really feel that. Like Xavier Worthy does nothing for you past eight yards. Like Rasheed Rice is really not that kind of player. Like he just doesn't separate well enough. What do you think Rasheed Rice's yards per outrunner against man coverage?

17:36It can't be very good. I don't I don't want to because I feel like you're asking me. Makes me think it's going to be gross. 0.8. That's gross. 0.8 yards per outrun against man coverage. Against zone this year, it's 3.2. As a team, the Chiefs are averaging 2.2 yards per outrun against zone and 1.2 yards per outrun against man. They just don't have anybody to give them answers in those moments. And in a post-Tyreek world, when teams were playing more man against the Chiefs, that was Travis Kelsey. When you look back on it a couple years ago, in 2022, he had 29 receiving first downs against man coverage, and he was targeted on 30 % of the Chiefs man coverage dropbacks.

18:17This year, he's been targeted, Travis Kelsey, on 15.5 % of their man coverage targets, or man coverage dropbacks, and he has eight receiving first downs against man. Through 11 weeks, that's one less than Jalen Naylor. That's tough. And so, listen, I do worry about this aspect of the matchup. I think for me, though, when I think about, like, what is going to give the Chiefs offense issues? It's can you get pressure off the edge? I like Leia Tulatu, but I don't think the Colts defense is good enough really to give me the kind of problems that I think that they're going to have. There's no one else you're worried about either.

18:49There's no one else I'm really worried about there. Probably paying some nice moments against the Falcons. He's okay. Exactly. He's not enough to where I'm going to be like, oh, it's not like they're playing the Texans or something like that where I'm really going to have an issue. I mean, he's not an edge player anyway, but like losing DeForest Buckner for the foreseeable future hurts. And so that's my other point too is like, I think the Chiefs can probably run the ball pretty decently in this game because I don't think the Colts front is that good. I agree with you. Will they try to do that?

19:14Will they? I don't know. I really I got to give you credit because like in the moment on Sunday night, you were like, why didn't they take more of this? And Derek and I weren't all the way with you. And it has been the prevalent topic in the Chiefs community right now is like, will can this team, will this team, are they willing? to run the football into the very favorable looks that teams are willing to give them. We do this all the time. Who do you put on the field if you want to be an under center rushing team? In terms of what? Like what is your personnel? Like you can't have Xavier Worthy on the field.

19:50You can't have Hollywood on the field. I do think that there are some personnel tweaks away from being able to be this sort of team, like as an identity. I still think you need to sprinkle it in more than you're doing it right now. Because if they want to be in 12 personnel and you have to have Kelsey out there, Noah Gray isn't that sort of guy. Like they don't have the physicality at tight end or receiver to really lean into this. And so I do think this is more of an offseason consideration, but I do think they have to do that. Like I said this to you yesterday, Jawan Jennings is a free agent this year.

20:18I would love to see a player like Jawan Jennings beyond the Chiefs. Just to give them like a big bodied option in some of these man cover situations, one more receiver who could potentially block because that's the transition that needs to happen. We do this all the time with these star level quarterbacks where we're like, oh, he doesn't really like to play that way. And like, you know, you don't want to put him in that box because that's not really what you do with those sorts of players. Go look at what Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott are doing this year in offenses that have leaned more into being like under center, complimentary play action sorts of offenses.

20:51It doesn't eliminate the option just because your quarterback is good. Like it makes the quarterback's life easier. And so I just don't understand why teams refuse to kind of pull that lever, even if their quarterbacks are not necessarily attuned to playing that way, because almost invariably it's going to put you in easier positions. Yeah. And like we know Patrick Mahomes can do it. They've had stretches where they've been a little bit more of like a big team, get under center a little bit more of it. Like they've over the last couple of years have to like drifted again, further back away from that, which has been incredibly frustrating.

21:23And I think part of the reason their run game looks the way it does, being so gun heavy, is I think a lot of their pass game only kind of works because they're an RPO team. So if you can attach that to your run game, it's just like they are like an offseason away from fixing this. And so I do worry about that a little bit, but it's still a good offense. I still think they'll be OK. They just run into more walls than necessary. Objectively so, it is a good offense. I think that there are just more dead ends, right? And I think that there are some teams that like, let's take this metaphor and other stuff forward.

21:50If they run into a wall, like they just have like a jackhammer that can push through the wall. Like the Bills are like this now, right? And the Chiefs just don't have that. And so if you're going to have these games, the Bills game being a really good example of this, of where they're doing a specific sort of thing to you, you can't pivot off of that. I think that's where the offense just runs into more dead ends and becomes more frustrating than it needs to be, given the overall quality of it. All right, let's get to our next one here. The Bucks at the Rams. Dave, why? Bucks at the Rams. The Rams are six and a half point favorites in this game, which not necessarily a surprise considering, I think, the divergent paths these teams have taken since like the first month of the season.

22:29I think that also speaks to why this feels like a game of the week. I think it's a good way. I mean, it's a great time to check in on the Bucs, right? Because, I mean, Baker Mayfield was on that heater in the first month of the season. Early, early MVP consideration. The Bucs looking like maybe a team that could achieve that extra gear that we wanted to see. And the Rams have just been everything that we could have hoped and dreamed. It's the best team in the league right now hosting a team that was trying to get there and is falling short recently. I will point this out for my Bucs people. We joked about it in the middle of the week, and it's just kind of staggering.

23:10The Bucs' last six opponents are a combined 44 and 18. And when they're done playing this game over the last nine weeks, starting with the Seahawks and going until now, they will have currently played seven teams that are top 12 in overall DVOA. So I'm not convinced that the Bucs are like mid. I just think the Bucs have played a boatload of really good teams. And for various reasons, they haven't achieved that extra level that we wanted them to see. But I think that's the right way to look at it. Yeah. Because I understand that, and I think that's the reason that maybe we should consider the Bucs a better team than the Panthers, and why they should still be the favorite in the division, because they've had a really tough schedule.

23:51But I think the hope was, early in the season, that the Bucs would be one of those teams, rather than someone who's losing to a bunch of those teams, and that has not happened, for a variety of reasons. And it's very similar to the—they did this on Monday night against Detroit earlier in the year, where it was like, okay, go see. Let's see what it looks like against the big boys. And they got punked. They got punked. And so I don't need them to win. I would like for them to not get punked if I am supposed to continue believing in them as something more than the four seed in the NFC. How much faith do you have in that?

24:25Yeah, what is your confidence rating? Mine is pretty low. I think they get punked in this game. Can you ask me when the inactives come out on Sunday morning and I know if Bucky Irvin, Chris Godwin, and Ben Brederson are going to play? Because if those three guys play, I'm a little more optimistic that this could be good. If that continues, then I'm kind of thinking this is a 14-point Rams win. So let's talk about that. So just, I mean, when you look at the season-long stats, it's kind of jarring to like see it laid out in front of you. The Bucs right now, per True Media, are 27th in offensive success rate.

24:5927th. I didn't think it was that bad. This isn't just like a... Even when they were good, they were uneven. and it's just like Baker found Emeka Ibuka down the field four times in a row. Last year, they were second. They finished just behind the Lions last year. And so this is a Bucs offense that comparatively is really struggling. And we haven't dove into that conversation. I kind of think we were kind of waiting for it in a moment like this where they were a game of the week and we kind of sit with it a little bit. So when you're watching this Bucs offense, the 27th ranked Bucs offense by Successory, what do you think is most plaguing this team in this moment?

25:31I think the answer is incredibly simple. I think the players just aren't good enough right now because they've all been injured. Like they're missing Mike Evans, who has been as steady a force as you've ever had in like every part of the field, really. He's their best downfield threat. He's obviously incredible in the red zone. Not having Godwin, I think, has hurt. And then Emeka Ibuka was super exciting early in the year, but he is not the caliber of rookie that is like a carry the passing offense kind of guy. So I think you add all of that on top of... There's a lot of Tez Johnson. There's a lot of Tez's brother.

26:00Like way too many Tez. He is like a go-to piece of this. And I'm not trying to shit on him, but he's a rookie day three pick. It's a tough place to be. Yeah, you can't be running your passing offense through Tez Johnson. It's like a nice find, but nice find should not be like... He has had some legitimately good moments this year. He should be what Jalen McMillan was last year. Unfortunately, he has been put into a place where he has to be Chris Godwin from last year. Another guy that's hurt for the Bucs, by the way, Jalen McMillan. And it's deeply unfair. And then this is an offense that's never really asked a lot of their tight end.

26:31Like, I like Haydon. He's fine. But they've never really gone to him that way. Bucky Irving is their best pass catching back, and he's missed most of the year. And then the offensive line has never really got its shot to gel because it's always like Cody Mauck has missed most of the year. Bredesen has missed some time. Gideki was out for a stretch. Yeah, Gideki got back last week, and then Bredesen was instantly out. Yeah, it's like they've just never had, whereas last year, they were like mostly had their guys and were able to gel and just maul people. And so I think because of all that instability, you add that on top of the fact that like, Like, I don't mean this as like some sweeping, like we have to make some proclamation about Baker Mayfield or whatever.

27:04But like, he's just a quarterback. When you invite volatility, some bad stuff is going to happen. And that's true of like all but like the top six quarterbacks in the league. And so I think they've just gotten to a point where they just don't have as much of a we can go to this every time sort of thing because they've just not had stability offensive line or pass catching. The screen game is nowhere near as fun for this team as it was last year. I mean, that was such a calling card of what Liam Cohen did there last year. and it just hasn't been part of their game. I believe running backs only, but again, Bucky Irving was so fun with that last year.

27:36Their running back screens have gained 38 yards this year across the city. Yeah, that's crazy. They probably had like five screens that went for 38 yards by themselves last year. So when you're looking at just the, let's call them layup plays and layup value within an offense, something that just kind of quietly happens. I would say that screens in the running game, I would bucket those things together. other. So last year, over the course of the season, the Bucs offense under Liam Cohen generated about 40 total EPA over the course of the season when you combine screens, which they had 21 of over the course of the year, and the running game.

28:08They had a running game that was top four in success rate last year, and they were the best green team in the NFL. So it was 40 over the course of the season. This year so far, that number is three, 11 weeks into the year. And so that value, just comparatively, you're getting a tenth of it combined compared to what you got over the course of last season. You combine that with the fact that in the passing game specifically, I think where the biggest struggles have come to be is when they are playing against man coverage. So, and that's, I think, where the talent level really starts to show up. Last year, they finished third in the NFL, the Bucks rate did, in success rate versus man per next gen, behind only the Lions and the Ravens.

28:42They were 49%. They're at 35 % this year. They have the fifth worst EPA per drop back in the NFL against man. The teams directly below them are the Browns, Giants, and Titans. And I think Mike Evans is a good chunk of that, right? So Mike Evans last year, he finished third in the NFL in first downs per outrun versus man behind A.J. Brown and Puka. And he was targeted on 34 % of the team's dropbacks when other opponents played man coverage, which is a top 10 rate in the league. And so some of this is probably going to a new offensive coordinator, but I'm trying to figure out, I'm trying to parse how much of this is a Josh Grazard problem and how much of this is a talent problem.

29:20And I don't know exactly where I land with that. It always feels like a cop out to just say, well, they're hurt because everybody in the NFL is hurt in late November. But I do think this would look drastically different. I mean, just as an example, weeks one through six, Baker was 10 of 30 for 418 yards when he threw 20 yards down the field or more. And since Mike got hurt in week seven, from week seven until now, he's only even attempted nine. And only one of those has been completed. Yeah, you feel that. That volatility that we're talking about, like the volatility was going in their favor and now the volatility barely exists in a good way.

29:54And now if you're going to be a team that can't push the ball as well down the field, you don't really have a good quick game because Baker's never really been like a quick game guy. He's a like, he's a drop back, ripping. Yes, gripping and ripping quarterback, 15 yard outs, all that stuff. And so now they don't have a quick game to keep them efficient. And the run game has been fine at times, but again, it's been hard for it to gel because they've just had guys in and out of the lineup. They're dead average in success rate. Dead average with the offensive line injuries, which is like, that's fine.

30:18It's fine. It's just not objectively good. It would be fine if all the other stuff was still there. But now all the other stuff isn't still there and you don't have that. And then again, Bucky Irving is their most explosive. I mean, Sean Tucker has done some of that as well. But Bucky Irving is like they want him in the lineup to get some explosives. And they're about to play against a very good defense. A defense that picked off Sam Darnold and the team that was number one in passing DVOA four times last week. I will say the Quentin Lake news this week is heartbreaking. I poured one out for you specifically.

30:47He has been awesome this year. And so he has a dislocated elbow. He is now on IR. He had surgery. I'm really hoping that he can get back before the end of the season. Those dislocated elbows, they don't have as long of a timeline as you think they would. And so, but that's a tough one. This team, I think, is equipped to deal with that. They have some depth and some flexibility in the secondary. But he's been one of, he's been the most important back seven piece. Yes, he's their best player outside of the front. All year. And so losing him, I do think matters. Whether it matters that much right now against this version of the Bucs, I'm not sure.

31:15The other side of the ball in this game is actually kind of the side I'm most interested in just because structurally, I think this is really fun. The Bucs and the Rams have actually played against each other fewer times than you might think in like the Stafford, Todd Bowles era because that one division game just like has so much prominence in my mind. Epic game. It just feels like, oh, they play every year. Like they're just NFC powers. They've actually only played three times. But in the games that they played previously, the Rams were the old Rams offense. It was all 11 personnel. The Bucs played 88 % nickel against the Rams in those three games.

31:48Well, now we're dealing with a different sort of Rams offense, and we're dealing with a Bucs defense that almost exclusively matches big bodies with big bodies. And when you can get them to play that way and play a ton of base, you can get after this team a little bit. Right now, the Bucs are bottom 10 in EPA per drop back out of base defense. But because they play it so much, they actually are bottom five in total passing epa allowed out of base looks the only teams below them are the bengals dolphins and giants and so now if you can get them there because you're playing in a ton of 13 personnel and even with higby out he's only on the field for half of their 13 personnel snaps they are remarkably deep at tight end the davis allen cody parkinson and terence ferguson you keep forgetting his name they can play that i know i'm insulting you And so I do think that this is a team that struggles to defend the pass out of those looks.

32:44This is a Rams team that destroys teams doing that. They didn't last week because the Seahawks played nickel to it the whole game. But I think this is a particularly difficult, like structural matchup for the Bucs right now, considering how the Rams are playing. Yeah, this is brutal. This is and this has always kind of been true of Todd Bowles. It's like if you get him into base, he's he's going to match. And I think he he likes to make the bet that like, OK, you can't play action every snap. So you're going to run eventually and we're going to get you in second and 11. Exactly. And then we can do our stuff.

33:11And like, that's the bet that he makes, whether or not that's right or wrong, I think is a different discussion. But when you get him in base, then he can't send some of those funky pressures that he likes to bring and maybe bring a nickel off of here or roll the safety down or fire a linebacker, you know, maybe stunt one of our ends. He can't do as much of that stuff when you're in just under center, like 13 personnel. The blitz rates are very high when the Bucks are in base defense, but that's just because the five guys are coming. And so when you look at like second and third level blitzers against in nickel this year, the combination of Savasie, Dennis and Levante, David have 94 pass rush snaps in nickel out of base.

33:47It's 16 because if you bring them, then you're bringing six or you're dropping like Yaya Diaby into coverage. And so the defense just becomes more predictable and static, which is always the case when teams are playing base defense. But with the Bucs, it just feels more pronounced and can be fine if your corners are incredible. And like the Bucs corners and DBs are fine, but they're not that level where you can just be fine being like, we're just going to play one on one coverage and be OK. That's just such a productive way to use a linebacker that you don't fully trust to like just throw them.

34:19Well, that's it's actually really funny because when I think about how the Rams offense is going to try to get after this team, there was a stretch in that game against the Seahawks last week where they tried to get Nick and Manwari twice in coverage. It was like, I want to say it was the first drive of the game down in the red zone where they ran a little play action pass out of 13 personnel. They tried to sneak Kyron into the left flat and it was great coverage by Emanwari. And then on the next play, they tried to get Kyron in the right flat and Emanwari tracks him down and makes the tackle short of the sticks.

34:46Well, now that player is one of the off-ball linebackers for the Bucs. And so the stuff, ironically, that the Rams were trying to do last week that doesn't work against the Seahawks, I actually think is the correct thing to try to do against this Bucs defense. Yeah, Sean McVay's like, all right, just turn the sliders back up. Just let's go back to the way we were doing it before. The other notable injury for the Bucs or the Rams thing that's worth mentioning, Rob Havenstein is also on IR. That's more of a like, that's just sad that he'd been playing hurt. And so it was just time. If you think about, oh, they lost their right tackle.

35:17And then your inclination is to think that's going to be a bad thing for the offense. It's probably not going to be a bad thing for the offense because he's struggling so much. Warren McClendon has also played well. Like this isn't the first time that he's missed. And Warren McClendon through three games earlier in the year allowed five pressures, no sacks and got flagged once, which just anecdotally, like when you see that news, it triggered like a warning bell for me where I was like, oh, no, Rams line compromised. This is very bad. I have the exact same process. And then I like dove back in and looked at it closer and I was like, oh, no, they'll be good.

35:50damn and then I was like god damn the Rams have been drafting really well the last few years where all of you know like their tight ends Warren McClendon like at all levels of this thing not just with the big picks like they have found very useful players in their draft classes well now when they have the fifth overall pick next year they can spend it on an offensive tackle if they need to still unfair all right we're gonna take our first quick break and then come back with one thing from a few of these week 12 games

36:21We flipped the Roles with this today We have a Bears game and a Cowboys game in here You did the Bears game and I did the Cowboys game Your one thing that you're looking out for In the Steelers-Bears game This weekend, Dave It's like a home and home We're removing our lifelong biases from it The true West where Philip Seymour Hoffman and John C. Reilly Switched off roles every single night That's what we're doing Every once in a while It's just fun to do something a little bit different Robert's always breaking out like the arts and culture references. I've got nothing here. I have no idea what he's talking about, but I believe him.

36:52You can't do this matchup without touching on the Aaron Rodgers aspect. And I know he might not play. Do you not want to do this? No, I do want to do this. You don't want to revisit Aaron Rodgers' Soldier Field? I'm just a little bit frightened about how this has gone conversationally over the last few days in the Bears world. You think Bears fans are a little too confident that they're going to get right with Aaron Rodgers? I think Bears fans are feeling themselves a little bit. The fact that there are Bears fans openly cheering for the idea of Aaron Rodgers playing in this game because they need to crush Aaron Rodgers along the path of whatever this season is becoming.

37:26I understand that. I was kind of getting there, too. And then I had like 10 seconds of rational thought. And I was like, why are we hoping for this? This seems like a really dangerous thing to want. The look on Aaron Rodgers' face when the Pittsburgh media asked him about playing in Chicago and playing at Soldier Field was delightful. Like, because he was so coy. He was such a shit about it. Because he was like, yeah, great city, great fan base, wonderful place to compete. And like the smirk on his face was priceless. And I was like, yeah, why wouldn't you feel that way? It will be very rewarding if he plays and he plays poorly and the Bears win this game.

38:07But to act like I'm not at least a little bit afraid of the other possibility, I'd be lying to you. The Bears defense is still actively bad, even though Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon are likely going to play and I'm never going to die. Robert is perpetually sitting on the fence between ultimate rational, like logical Bears fan and like doing the Super Bowl shuffle. I just like yelling at my, the two voices yelling at each other in my head. The Jalen Johnson news, it's like every other time we bring it up, it's like picking the petals off of a flower. It's like one time you'll be like, we're back, we're going to win the Super Bowl.

38:41And then another time we bring up the Jalen Johnson news and you're like, can he play defensive tackle? it's like this oscillation every time we bring it up it's great but you guys are getting a real up close and personal look at my inner dialogue that happens in my head all the time so the funny thing is we we can't ignore the rogers aspect we don't even know if he's going to play but it's it's too juicy not to say anything about it but the actually interesting part of this game is bears offense stealers defense and what that might look like because very quietly I've been enjoying watching the Steelers defense the last few weeks.

39:15I mean, we talked about it a few weeks ago, like they moved Jalen Ramsey to safety and that sort of helped stabilize things. They traded for Kyle Duggar. But man, and Steelers Bengals last week was the epitome of a game where there's just more going on on a Sunday. And like by the fourth quarter of that game, when Kyle Duggar picked six Joe Flacco, I was in six other places. And so I went back and watched that game and I was like, this is so cool. Joey Porter Jr. and James Pierre and these guys are just beating the shit out of the biggest, most physically dominant receiver duo in the NFL. And I know Joe Flacco is a piece of that, but the way they were bullying these guys, like 30 minutes into watching that game back, I was like, oh, I get why Jamar Chase spit on Jaylen Ramsey.

40:03Not condoning that at all, but I get it. Like it looked very frustrating. Like they were playing so physical with these guys, beating them up. Obviously, we know the Steelers front can be good, not all the time, but some of the time. And so you mix those elements together. And I'm curious to see what it looks like between what we've seen from Caleb dealing with pressure, getting away from pressure. Let's be honest. It's been very fun at times, but the Bears passing attack has been incredibly inconsistent. in, drops, just bad timing, all sorts of stuff like that. They look like a young team. And so I think the Steelers are equipped to, what's the word I want to say?

40:43Just throw them off, frustrate them, fluster them. And so I think that could be a very, very fun matchup within this game. Yeah, I don't disagree. And my biggest question is going to be the multiplicity that we've seen from the Steelers coverage-wise over the last couple of weeks. Is that a product of the teams that they're playing or is that something they want to lean into a little bit more because I think if you give Ben Johnson a limited menu his ability to like dial up beaters and create explosives if you're going to give him like a static sort of defense he can do that and but if you're going to start changing the picture on him a little bit more I think that version of this game and that element of this game is what I'm most curious about and I worry about that a little bit for the Steelers because of the structure of the offense where the Bears are willing to get under center more they're willing to put multiple tight ends on the field they run the ball pretty well for the most part, especially over the last month.

41:32And I think part of why the Steelers, especially last week, were able to go too high and do some of these rotations and stuff that they don't normally do because the Bengals are going to be in shotgun on 90 % of their plays and you kind of know that they're not going to run the ball. And so it's a little bit easier to be the team that has the front foot when you know what the other team is doing structurally. The Bears offense right now specifically, when you think about the ways they want to attack in the run game and the pass game is specifically designed to attack the intermediate middle of the field.

41:58And that's true on even some of their non-play action concepts. Like the best stuff they're doing right now is some of the ways they're attacking like the deep hook window. And DJ Moore did this twice in the last game. And it really does like, I've enjoyed watching the offense. This is like a weird little like tidbit. But they're running like what is supposed to look like a corner route. And then he'll bend it back inside. And it's almost like a corner stop. But he actually is taking it more further into the middle of the field than you would with a typical corner stop. and it's like a great little wrinkle off of what should be a corner route.

42:29And so when you think about that area specifically, your linebackers need to get depth in order to disrupt those sorts of throws. And we know that the Steelers linebackers in space, that is one area where you can kind of get after them a little bit. The middle of the Steelers defense still concerns me between the linebackers. Ramsey's been good, but he definitely looks a tick slower than what you might remember Jalen Ramsey as being. So you can definitely do it, but I don't know, man. And I was, the physicality they played with against the Bengals, and like to take it to guys like Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins was just, it was very fun to watch.

43:03Two things that worry me about this game. One, I know Alex Heisman is banged up right now, but the idea of Nick Herbig even against Theo Benedict is something that would keep me up at night. And the other part of it is, if I'm in the Steelers, I am running the ball 50 times in this game. I am running the ball until they stop me. That's Arthur Smith's dream. I'm running the ball until they stop me. Because right now, that Bears front, I don't think should scare anybody. And all three of their starting linebackers are currently not practicing. And so that is the other layer to this that right now I'm a little bit worried about.

43:38Let's get to our next one here. Panthers and Niners. Derek, one thing you're looking for in Panthers Niners. So we've obviously got for the Niners, Brock Purdy is back in the lineup now. He played last week against Arizona. I don't know why that was. We've obviously got for the Niners, Brock Purdy. Brock Purdy, he's back. Brock Purdy. I was a little showy there in a way that I'm normally not. He was not good last week. I know the numbers look good, and he made a couple of nice open throws, but he just did not look like himself. I thought he struggled. He couldn't get out of the pocket as much as he wanted.

44:08He didn't look as explosive. He didn't scramble very well. And then even a couple of the times that he was trying to get outside of the pocket, he tried very hard to roll out to his left and throw an interception down the field like near the goal line when earlier on that play, he had George Kittle, I think, on the right side, just like wide open on a speed out, doesn't throw it, he bails. And so I just thought he looked a little bit unsettled, didn't look as explosive. I think that's a health thing. I think it is a health thing. I think he's just a little bit trying to work himself back into feeling good.

44:34And I think maybe with the running, he's maybe just not going to get there this year, which makes sense. You come off of some of the turf toe stuff. And he obviously played on it early, early in the season against the Jaguars and probably he shouldn't have. And so I think it's affected him as a scrambler, but also like, I think under pressure specifically, he struggled to drive the ball in a way that, you know, he's already a guy who his arm is kind of on the line. And so if he's losing a little bit of juice, I think that that can be a little bit of an issue. The reason I say all of that, it's probably not going to matter for the Niners this week because the Panthers cannot rush the passer and pressure him.

45:07And so I think this is a really good game for the Niners to like kind of just keep their season going and just like keep themselves alive. And this game shouldn't probably punish what on that side of the ball is probably the trickiest thing about them trying to work around right now. What is the total in this game? Do we have any sense of that? Well, we can figure it out. I would wager it could be pretty hot. It's 49 and a half. 49 and a half. It's honestly less than I thought it would be. I thought we could get into the 50s there. I guess I'm probably weighing the performance from the Panthers passing game from last week a little bit too heavily.

45:39I think that seems high to me because I could imagine this being a game with 100 combined carries between what the Panthers like to do and obviously Christian McCaffrey. The Niners are seven point favorites in this game. Does that surprise you? I think they're much better at football. Yeah, I guess you guys are right. I'm rooting like hell for the Panthers. You and I agree. They're like a soft spot team for us. But I told Derek this when we were talking before the show, like I would be I would be flabbergasted to see the Panthers win this game. And that's not that's not fair. The Niners are beat up.

46:13Maybe it's just because we haven't gotten a lot of the Panthers in big moments like this. That's I joked about this during the week. I love this game being Monday Night Football because this is the epitome of like a three o 'clock kickoff in San Francisco that gets buried by an NFC East game. Like this is a game that you typically don't see in a standalone window. I'm very excited about it, but I just think the Niners are a better team playing at home. Yeah, you guys are probably right. I think there are two elements that are kind of feeding into this for me. One, I'm excited about the game. And so the fact that it's that lot side, and it's just like, oh, that seems wrong.

46:51This is a shockingly appealing game mistake. And that's the other part of it, is that if the Bucs lose and the Panthers win, the Panthers are in real position in the NFC South. And so the fact that it's a game I'm looking forward to, and it's a game that has real stakes, seeing that was just a little bit surprising. When you step back and think about it for more than 10 seconds, it does make sense. But just the initial thought, I was like, that's kind of weird. And because I think, too, for a lot of the season, it's been like, oh, the Niners offense has been good in spite of XYZ guys missing. Well, it's like, well, now they have the quarterback back.

47:20Ricky Pearsall's back. John Jennings looks good. It's like they've got all the guys back now. And it's like, they're the Niners we thought they were supposed to be. The Cardinals were a borderline top 10 defense for like a good majority of the season. And they got destroyed by the Niners. And so I think I just anticipated there being a lot of points in this game. I guess it's probably on the Niners side, there are going to be a lot of points. The Panthers offense has had moments where they've really struggled for stretches of the season. So this could be a lot like when Atlanta went to the Bay.

47:45however many weeks ago that was. Yeah. I'm starting my football. It seems like 20 years ago now. I'm weirdly so much more excited about this, though. I think I'm just excited to see the Panthers have a moment on a stage like this. And this game matters. With a chance to, and you know, I'm being dismissive of them, but they could absolutely be in control of the NFC South by the end of the week. Our next one here, Eagles-Cowboys. My one thing from Eagles-Cowboys is kind of a, it's like 10 things, but we're consolidating into one central thought. I am so much more interested in this game than I was like 10 days ago.

48:18And I think that's coming from a few different directions. The Cowboys offense, when guys are out there, remains a very good unit. This offense has real juice to it. And I've loved watching them all season. We've been very open about the fact that this version of the offense with Clayton Adams and with Brian Schottenheimer, with George Pickens, this team is fourth in offensive success rate this year. They are just ahead of the aforementioned Niners, the Packers, the Chiefs. This offense has been really good down to down. And now the Eagles defense is back into a place where this becomes like a real sort of heavyweight fight.

48:53I went back. I did a video this week about Jalen Phillips. It's going to be coming on our YouTube channel a little bit later this weekend. And just went back and watched every single play that he's been on the field for the Eagles over those first two games. And how he has unlocked the rest of that defensive line. It's a combination of stuff, right? They get Jalen Phillips, they get Nolan Smith back, N 'Kobe Dean is now back in the lineup, and you watch everything that they're doing. When they made the trade for Jalen Phillips, our kind of abstract thought was, what he will be able to do as a run defender on the edge compared to the other guys that they had to trot out there for most of this season, with and without Zedarius Smith, is just so vastly different from a physical profile perspective.

49:32He's going to change the way they can defend the run. Check. You saw it immediately against the Packers, and he's been able to do that. their pass rush this team was like bottom five in pressure rate when bringing four over the first half of the season and you saw Vic trying to blitz a little bit more because he felt like he had to yes and now again you get Nolan Smith back at the same time there was a rep in the Packer game where and Jalen Phillips has been chipped at like a really high rate so far this season so there's a rep in the Packer game where Jalen Phillips gets chipped Jalen Carter center slasher Jalen Carter, he gets double teamed.

50:05So now you've got Ojomo and Nolan Smith with one-on-ones on the other side. Those are matchup advantages. Those are good players. And they had another player where there was a twist between those two guys. They're doing a lot of simulated pressures now because they feel like they only have to bring four. Jalen Phillips is a very capable dropper in those sorts of moments. The degree to which the defensive line is getting their hands on passes right now is like seriously disrupting other teams. When I watch it now, the fact that now Jalen Phillips gives them like four legitimate threats, it reminds me a little bit of watching the Steelers front at their best, where you have four guys across the front that are legitimate pass rushers.

50:42You know, obviously the Highsmith, Watt, Hayward, and then, you know, whatever you want to do, like Stephon Tuitt era of the Steelers. Added guy of your choosing. And they're often pretty good, right? And so that's what the Steelers feel like. And then you combine the batted balls side of it. And that's like the best comparison I have in my head right now. And against this Cowboys defense or offense, that's a compelling matchup. And on the other side of the ball, now we have a Cowboys defense that is showing signs of life with after the Quinn and Williams thing. You get you're getting healthier in the secondary.

51:13How much the Logan Wilson thing matters? We'll see. He had a good rep in the red zone against the Raiders. I'll give him that. But now you have a Cowboys defense that looks like it's more than a speed bump. And you have a Philly offense that is starting to spiral. and if the Philly offense struggles against the Cowboys this weekend and if they somehow lose this game, imagine the fever pitch that this discussion is going to reach in Philly. Like it's already at kind of a crazy level. It's at an insane level. I am so interested in this in a way I did not expect to be two weeks ago. That's where I land.

51:46You know what I love too is, let's be brutally honest, the networks are going to put this game in the 330 slot no matter what and that's like the whole NFC East. It's for the top 10 media markets in the country. Like this game is going to get the big billing no matter what. If it's going to be in that window, at least let it rock. Like there's nothing, there's no bigger bummer than when a 330 Cowboys kickoff just sucks. And it's like, well, this is still here because it's the Cowboys and they're not going to flex them. But nobody wants to watch this. At least let it have some juice. And this game suddenly has a ton of juice.

52:22Like I'm legitimately excited about it. and I definitely didn't think I'd feel that way as recently as, yeah, a week, week and a half ago. I think the thing with the Jalen Phillips stuff, like he's been incredible for them. Like what he's added as a run defender, which gets them into better down in distances. And then when they can rush the passer, he's obviously better than the guys that they had there. All of that has been awesome. And then he can drop them off in coverage when he needs to. I feel bad for underrating the fact that Vic Fangio clearly hated his time in Miami. And a lot of the people in Miami...

52:50No one has been ever less suited to live in Miami than Vic Fangio. He hated being there. A lot of the players didn't seem to like him being there. And so the fact that in the middle of this season, Vic was like, I think there's one guy in Miami I still would kind of like to have on my team. The fact that he plucked Jalen Phillips, I think like speaks to how much Vic Fangio truly trusted that guy. And you're already seeing, he pretty clearly had a plan in mind for him and it's come together about as well as it could have. You know what else is fun about this Eagles team is, like it's tempting to draw the parallels to 2023 where the coordinator hires weren't working out and everybody was wondering what the hell was wrong with the offense.

53:26And obviously that season went sideways. But Sean Desai got demoted in the middle of that and the defense was awful. This defense is amazing. And like, I'm not saying I want to see this, but like I think the Eagles defense could carry them across the finish line, whereas that was just never going to happen in 2023. Well, the question is going to be, and it's the reason we had the Eagles as like a no doubt about it team at the table is that we've seen the offense turn it around. I have some serious doubts about whether that can happen. And I think losing Lane Johnson for an extended period of time now, that plays into it.

53:59You lose the best right tackle in the NFL, arguably, Lions fans. And now your six offensive linemen stuff that you've been able to lean into a little bit earlier this season, that gets worse because Fred Johnson was your extra offensive lineman, now is your starting right tackle. So there's that part of it. And then when I watch the passing game right now, Like the fact that the vertical element of it is really all they have and all they're trying to lean into, there's just nowhere else for them to turn. Like when you look at the amount of crossing routes a guy like Devontae Smith is running compared to this offense at its best, or even like the amount of like non-vertical outbreaking routes from a guy like A.J.

54:35Brown, there's just none of that. Like unless they're throwing the ball deep outside the numbers, like there is just nowhere that this passing game can tap into. And A.J. Brown just hasn't been that sort of force on those throws and on those plays this year. And so I don't know what the answer is right now because it feels static. It feels one dimensional and it really does feel as dire as it's been for this team in any stretch. I don't disagree, I think. And that's why I'm I'm morbidly curious. I love the idea of Vic Fangio walking into the defensive meeting room on like a Wednesday and like Jason Kelsey is giving interviews about what's wrong with the Eagles offense and reporters are saying that the rift is getting bigger between Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown and Deshaun Jackson is talking on podcasts and Vic Fangio is just like, forget all that.

55:22Vic Fangio's never, he hasn't understood what a podcast is. Buckle your chin straps. We're going to get this thing done just like we've been doing for the last month, month and a half. They're such an impressive unit. And I think they're capable of doing that as long as Jalen can find Devontae Smith like once a game for an explosive play and get them like 7, 10 points. I think they've got a shot. Which I do have my concerns about because at least last year, I think part of why they were able to stabilize with the offense was when the passing offense was a little bit up and down and they didn't know what to do, you hand the ball off to Saquon Barkley 25 times a game and eventually he will pop one.

55:59They can't do that, right? Especially if Lane Johnson's not going to play, you can't do that. I think them not having a, hey, let's slow down our breathing a little bit here type of thing that they can go to. I think that just, it puts a lot on Jalen Hurts and it puts a lot on an offensive line that again, I think is really, really good, but is less good this year, even with Lane Johnson. I think the interior was not as good as it has been in previous season, especially if Juergens is potentially not going to play this week. Like they, there's potential for a lot of like the bottom falling out here in a way that seems crazy for how many talented players they still have.

56:32We're going to take our next quick break here and then come back and spend a little bit of time on Sicko Street.

56:41First one here. Cam Ward and the one and nine Titans against the Seattle Seahawks. This is a different sort of Sicko Street. The next one is, you know, what we typically do to a game between two very bad teams. This is a game between what has been the worst offense in the league and what is right now the best defense in the league. For a little bit of context, I have the Seahawks defense in every fantasy league. And the one I care about, they are projected to score the same amount of points as a Meke Ibuka. They're going to win you your matchups this week, I think is fair to say. So the Sicko Street aspect of this is, how ugly does it get between the Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans offense?

57:14It's probably going to be really bad. The Seahawks are an incredible defense. They're just going to have every single matchup advantage in this. The only thing I want to say about this, and it might be hard to figure this out on Sunday with how difficult it's going to be. This is a tough time to put this on the record, by the way. I don't care. I'm so confident in it. Cam Ward is a legitimately good quarterback today. Like, I think he is. I think he's really good already. Not like top 10 or anything like that. But I think he's like about. A quarterback you can build with. He is absolutely a quarterback you can build with.

57:43And so this game might look ugly because Mike McDonald and his Seahawks team does that. But like, that dude's good. Like, all I... Mike McDonald's got the advantage over Mike McCoy on Sunday? Unfortunately. All I wanted to say was there is light at the end of the tunnel for Cam Ward. But on Sunday, that light might be an oncoming train. I firmly, I firmly believe in Cam Ward. I just want... Go watch, go watch the Texans game if you didn't watch it. It's maddening what happened to this guy. The Titans were called for five false starts and two holdings against Houston, four of those penalties came on third down.

58:23You had the dropsy miscommunication issues with Mason Kinsey. Oh my God. By the way, Calvin Ridley got hurt on the first snap of that game. Van Jefferson, Mason Kinsey, and Elick A. O 'Manor. That's your receiver core. Like this guy is screwed and he still led them on a 95 yard scoring drive. He's a good quarterback. He's probably going to get his ass kicked by the Seahawks and I feel bad about that, but I'm with Derek. I just wanted to say it. I'm looking forward to what Cam Ward can be over the course of his career. This week, I'm looking forward to like how ugly this can possibly get. And that's why it is included in this conversation.

58:57The first time they played the Colts, they were down like 14-0 within five minutes of the game starting. And I could easily see that happening again here. Let's get to the real Sicko Street game of the week. The Browns are playing the Raiders this week. There are a lot of different layers to this. What is the sickest street that you can walk down here when it comes to Browns Raiders? I mean, I think the sickest street for a lot of reasons is Shader Sanders getting his first NFL start. And I'll be earnest here for a second, even though this is Sicko Street. But like what that looks like, what, you know, he gets to be the, he took the reps with the starters.

59:34Here we go. I know that's the storyline everywhere. But this is an eminently gettable Raiders defense. You made the very good point. Like Patrick Graham has done great work with them. And for what they have, I think they are a respectable unit. But I think it's fair to say, like, if Shadur Sanders can't show something resembling effective quarterback play against these guys, what is your hope for what that's going to look like? I don't know. This is still like, this is still a bad Browns offensive infrastructure. And listen, I don't, not like a Shadur Sanders believer. It's got to look better than it did getting thrown in against Baltimore, though, right?

1:00:11Yeah, considering that's like one of the worst extended quarterback stretches that I've seen, like watching the NFL over the last five years, it better be better than that, yes. I know the bar's not very high, but for a variety of reasons. A, the profile, be honest, the conversation that Shadur drives, like there are going to be so many eyeballs on this, and how good or how bad or how sicko it looks is going to be one of the prevalent talking points of coming out of Week 12. For me, I'm just as interested in Miles Garrett and what he might do against this Vegas offensive line. Like after watching what the Cowboys did, and that is not even with Quinn and Williams, that is not the most devastating pass rush in the NFL by any stretch.

1:00:57And now you add Miles Garrett to this. Miles Garrett was sitting like three weeks ago. He was sitting on a very normal five sacks in seven games. Like, that sounds about right. Like you're never playing with the lead. Good player. You just don't have a dozen season for miles Garrett. Always has like 13. So he's got 15 now with seven games to play. And this is a situation where even if, even if he, let's say he gets like two. Now you're talking about needing five and a half to tie or break the single season sack record over your last six games. Like if he can make some hay here in a situation where he could, then the single season sack record comes into play.

1:01:39On Sunday. It could. That's the funny part. Like, if he can do four or five sacks against Baltimore or against New England, then he could get, I don't know if he could get to seven sacks, but like he could. If anyone in the league can do it, it's against this offensive line in this quarterback. I just love the idea of Max Crosby and Myles Garrett just kind of staring across the sidelines at each other being like, yeah, you and I. Like this is we're going through the same thing right now, buddy. It's incentives day here on Psycho Street. We had a take tribunal that we wanted to dig into this week that came about as we were discussing the things we wanted to hit on the week 12 preview.

1:02:21This is all you, buddy. What do you need to get off your chest this week? We should not talk about the Vikings anymore because I'm done talking about J.J. McCarthy because there's nothing new to say. He's the worst starting quarterback in the league, and it looks the same just about every week. And so until something changes, I'm putting an embargo on Vikings offense talk. We can't do that. Why? You can't put an embargo on one of the most divisive and interesting teams in the league right now. Not interesting in a good way, but still interesting. But if it looks divisive, though, if the conversation is the same and there's no one on the other side, other than people with skull in their Twitter bio.

1:03:00This team inspired the biggest argument that the three of us have had on the show when we talked in August about whether or not they deserved a seat at the championship table. I want to be clear about this. It was whether them or the Texans deserve the seat. We still. I still feel okay about that. No. Vindication, buddy. Like, as bad as the Texans have been, I feel great about that decision. But that's how highly the Vikings were thought of. best supporting cast in the NFL, Kevin O 'Connell, and what he can do as a quarterback developer. This was more so than just an interesting team with a young quarterback.

1:03:37I have been viewing the Vikings this entire time as a thought experiment because it's not every year that you are willing to move on from an established Pro Bowl level starter at quarterback. And I know the end for Sam Darnold in Minnesota was ugly, but he did more than enough that a lot of teams would of caved to the obvious decision. I mean, the Giants with Daniel Jones is a great example. More often than not, you pay that guy and the Vikings. But how many times do you have a first round quarterback in the building when that guy has that season? Very, very, very rarely. I don't want to compare the Daniel Jones choice to what happened to the Vikings.

1:04:18Those are very different things. I still think a lot of teams would have found a way to hold on to the quarterback that just led them to 14. Potentially, yes. And I'm not even necessarily criticizing the Vikings for what they did because I understand the logic of it. It's more of the point of, like, this is not a team that was supposed to be bad and they have a young quarterback, like the Titans with Cam Ward, where it's like, ah, that's a tough break, man. I'm going to stick you in the corner and watch some of your tape in the offseason. I'd rather talk about the Titans every week than this offense.

1:04:49This team, they are too interesting, and the range of outcomes is too diverse to just will them away. But it's not anymore. It's not anymore. He's the same guy every week. It's not anymore. They have a 5 % chance to make the playoffs. So the range of outcomes is not that diverse. They're going to not be a playoff team. And I feel like all the things that you're saying about this is a thought experiment and the most interesting part of this being what the Vikings are going to have to do at the end of this, we can do that on December 31st. We don't have to live and die with this every single week.

1:05:21And I think my perspective on this has been warped because I have had to talk about this offense two weeks in a row on the hangover. I've watched every single snap that J.J. McCarthy has taken the last two weeks, and I've had to sit in it, and I no longer need to be following this beat by beat. If you, you can stand there and make that argument. If we do the Vikings on the hangover again, you have to do it. That is, it is nice to just watch on Sunday and then just walk out of here just like, oh, I'll worry about J.J. later in the week. That is, that is tough. Do you want to do Building the Beast?

1:05:52Honestly, if we get, if we look at the Vikings again, I think I might be. Yeah, actually, Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson is a hell of a lot more fun than what the Vikings have going on right now. It is a fascinating discussion. I just think that the, and not even the vacillations, because it's kind of been the same conversation over the last two weeks. He has three good throws a week, and then otherwise he just, he looks tough. But to me, it's the obsession with every single moment. We've talked about this a lot this year. And I think that this has become so obvious when you just look about the conversations that are happening around the league.

1:06:23Like every time a young quarterback breathes, it is the most important thing that has ever happened to that fan base. And I feel like it's making us lose our collective f***ing minds. And I think trying to distance ourselves from that a tiny bit with a couple of these guys can only be a good thing. I'm not saying we don't talk about it for the rest of the year, but until something meaningful changes, do we have to keep doing it? I'm going to steal your line from you, because when we previewed, when we previewed, it was either Vikings Bears or Vikings Ravens. You made the very astute point. He beat the Lions.

1:07:02The J.J. McCarthy Vikings beat the Lions. He's the quarterback. And that's my whole point. They are a good enough team to do some weird shit like that, even with J.J. McCarthy doing what he's doing. But that doesn't make him any good. This season is gone. The season is over. The season might be gone. But do you mean to tell me that with all the frustrating shit that they do, that the Green Bay Packers couldn't muck about and lose to this team? We can talk about that, but let's talk about the Packers when we're having that conversation. But J.J. could play terribly in the way that he has for all of the other games and they win that game.

1:07:33And that tells me nothing new about J.J. McCarthy. That's my point. If he plays well over the next two weeks, we'll put him back on the table. I'll start talking about J.J. McCarthy. But if it looks the same way that has for five of his starts, like I just I don't care anymore. I don't care about this as much as he does. And I actually think it's going to be funny to make him talk about J.J. McCarthy over the next six weeks. So I agree with you. I think I just like making Derek talk about bad football because it like offends him on a personal level, whereas I kind of get a thrill out of it. See, I'm going to leave on my plane tomorrow and you guys as punishment are going to make me talk about J.J.

1:08:06McCarthy next week for having left. I will zoom in for a Vikings hangover segment if need be. That actually is a good punishment for you to bring him in just for Vikings offense. I can handle that. Let's talk about what we want to know by the end of the week 12 slate. Dave, what do you got for me? I feel insane asking this question, but is Joe Burrow going to play football this weekend? It sure seems like it. Zach Taylor wants it to happen. I'm telling you that right now. Just typically the head coach is the first one to shut this sort of speculation down. And Zach Taylor's just like, oh, he could.

1:08:44How did this happen? Like early December was the target date for Joe Burrow. And earlier this week, it was like, or last week, excuse me, it was like, oh, he's he's limited. And I'm like, OK, what does that mean? And then on Wednesday of this week, he's full at practice. I can't believe how quickly this escalated. Both good and bad. Joe Burrow is an insane person. Like to be one of those quarterbacks, you kind of have to be. And there's clearly a level of this of like, he wants to be out there, even if playoff chances are done, all that stuff. Like he clearly wants to go out there and play ball, which like I respect.

1:09:16I'm just like at this point for the Bengals, like this just doesn't change anything that really to me. My first like near knee jerk reaction to something like this is like, what is this benefit? Like, who does this possibly benefit? But then I think you actually take a step back and think about it for a second. And first of all, I'm sure he wants to play. Oh, he clearly, yeah, yeah, yeah. He's just that kind of guy. If you're being really cynical about this, I think the first place your mind can go is, well, of course, Zach Taylor wants him to play. They need to save Zach Taylor's job and save his season.

1:09:46I would be willing to bet a lot that that thought has not consciously crossed Zach Taylor's mind. I think there is an obligation and urgency in an NFL building to do everything you can to win every single game just because that's the way the guys are wired. That's the way that they operate. I also think that just from a practical benefit perspective, him being able to, it's not week 18. There's still like a third of the season left. When guys sit out for an entire year, it's a bad thing to do. We've seen that like really hinder players and like the overall arc of their careers. And so if he's healthy enough to play, he suffers a devastating injury and misses the rest of the season.

1:10:22That's awful. But then you have an entire off season to rehab that injury. And so I think it's very easy to say, just put him on ice. Who gives a shit about this? I feel like that's a lot harder to actually see through for a bunch of different reasons. I think this is a picture perfect example of how simple the idea of waiting till next year or tanking. Obviously, like the Bengals weren't intending to tank because they had Joe Burrow. Not trying to win. Not trying to do everything you can to win. It's easy to say that from 10 ,000 feet. And let me just say from experience, the building of an NFL team that is having the season the Bengals are having is an abysmal place to be.

1:11:00It is it permeates every aspect of life in that building from the from payroll to the locker room and to give like to to punt on a situation like this. And let's be very clear. The Bengals would have to win out to even have a shot at the playoffs. You're not doing this realistically for a chance at the playoffs. You're doing it as a good faith effort to your locker room and your building that you are trying to win football games. We were joking about it before the show. Look at where look at the ride Jamar Chase has been on this season between Jake Browning and what happened with Jalen Ramsey last week.

1:11:39And imagine seven more weeks of this type of football and the effect that it could have, let alone stuff like forget Zach Taylor's job and livelihood. the people 10 rungs below him that need the Bengals to be a viable product to not have to relocate their kids. All that stuff comes into play here. And on top of that, Joe Burrow makes 50 whatever million dollars a year. Like if he's healthy and he wants to do it, I absolutely think you should do it. And that's more than just me being excited to watch him. That's from a practical standpoint. Do we worry about that at all, though? Let's say he's rushing himself back a little bit.

1:12:12And he's not really healthy. He's a guy who's not healthy a lot. If he is not actually healthy enough to play and he's at like 75%, then I 100 % disagree with this timeline. If he is 100 % healthy and can protect himself, is in a position to be the best version of himself out there, I have less of a problem with it. I agree with that. We have to talk about this before we leave. Oh, no. Calvin Watkins, who covers the Cowboys. What's up, Calvin? CeeDee Lamb is doing his media availability right now. CeeDee Lamb said he and George Pickens missed curfew before the game at Las Vegas. The two were having dinner and a few drinks at Red Rock Casino.

1:12:52Lamb denied he was throwing up at the casino. He said it's a disrespect to even suggest that he knows how to hold his liquor. That's the defense? How about them Cowboys, baby? You know what? I'm 100 % in. Bring back the boys will be boys era. I want back. This is the Cowboys that I want. I think you speak for the entire fan base when you say that. That's absolutely amazing. Sorry, we had to mention that. Talking about, again, how bad it can get down the stretch for some of these teams and the misery that comes along with that. My what do I want to know in week 12, and this will extend for the rest of the year, how bad does it get for the Falcons?

1:13:31Truly, how ugly is this going to be? From an on-field product perspective, from a jobs of people in the organization perspective, and again, there is no worse feeling in the NFL. or as a sports fan, when you are in the middle of a lost season and you do not have the pick that is supposed to be the reward for that lost season, it is the ultimate just twist of the knife. And that is exactly the reality that the Falcons are sitting in right now. They're going on the road to play their biggest rival who everybody knew was going to be the worst team in the league heading into this season. And I don't think they're favored to win.

1:14:09They are not. The Saints are one and a half point favorites. They are not. favored to beat the saints who were the butt of every joke in the league heading into the year that says a lot about where we're at with kurt cousins at the completely fair given what he's done over the last handful of times that he's been out there has been terrible this i know we talked about with a on the hangover the michael pennix like injury and all that stuff and like where are we at with like cleaning out the head the the coaching staff in front office and stuff i think i was pretty willing to like the front office we should probably go coaching staff we don't know but like if it truly falls apart over the next six weeks like Like, it would probably be hard to justify, like, not just clearing everything out.

1:14:46This kind of relates to the Bengals conversation. Coaches get fired often, and front office executives as well, because I'm reminded of the John Robinson moment with the Titans. People get fired because owners are embarrassed. People get fired because the product on the field is making the owner, is making his skin crawl when he has to watch it. That's one of the arguments, cynical or not, for Joe Burrow playing for the rest of the season for the Bengals. we are potentially living out that sort of reality for the Falcons. And I am at least a little bit morbidly curious about the depths that this thing will reach both this week and over the rest of the season.

1:15:21Derek, what do you want to know coming out of week 12? I have invested over the last couple of shows that we've done more Jaguars optimism than I should. And I know I do this. Then is justified as well. But they have not really strung together like two good offensive performances. the entire year. That's pretty important to do. And so this week, like, if they can do it based on what they did last week and then maybe string together a good performance here against the Cardinals, that would at least give me like 2 % more faith that they can like actually steal the division from the Colts. When did you jump off?

1:15:57Because I've never really jumped off. I think I was just a little bit more of a quiet passenger for a minute, but I've been on the ride the whole time. That's incredible considering. I'm just, so they beat the Chiefs in that game. Then there was the Trevor sacked 10 million times by the Seahawks. They get blown out in London by the Rams. They beat the Raiders on a two-point conversion at the end, blow that lead to the Texans, and then they finally looked good last week against the Chargers. You, on some level, believed that entire time. For some reason, yeah. For some reason, yes. And if they, hey, I'm with you, man.

1:16:31It would mean a lot to me if they could do it twice in a row. I don't have a ton of confidence, but... I wish I could believe in something to the degree that you believe in Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. It speaks to like a purity of your soul that I just have lost a long, long time ago. All right. That is all we've got for week 12. Looking forward to this one. This is going to be our first recap show, not from the studio. Just got to be guys a heads up. Obviously, we're entering the holiday portion of the season. I am on my way to Florida for Thanksgiving. Derek is on his way home, but we're still coming your guys' way.

1:17:06on Sunday, same time, same place when it comes to the YouTube channel. That's where you can check it out. I encourage you guys to subscribe to the YouTube channel. If you have not, if you're watching this on YouTube, go ahead and click that subscribe button. We're doing a ton more YouTube specific stuff this year. New like bespoke videos that we've not been doing in the past. Derek has another one this week, I believe about the Rams defense, correct? I have one coming out about Jalen Phillips and the impact he's had about the Eagles. So we're doing multiple of those every single week. The recap shows that we're doing, including tonight's show, we will if you are listening to this on Friday it's gonna be available in your YouTube feed our recap of Texans bills we've got graphics highlights just way more stuff when it comes to the recap shows on video that I would encourage you guys to check out if you like the other content that you're we're doing I assume that you will like kind of the new and improved versions of the video stuff that we're putting out there so like subscribe do all of that fun stuff we will be back on Sunday for now that's all we got appreciate you guys listening we'll talk to you very soon

1:18:12We'll see you next time.